Sept. 19, 2026
The Unifying Mystery of Black Hole Jets: Stellar and Supermassive Connections
SHOW NOTES Black hole jets follow one universal rule Adelle Goodwin (Curtin University / ICRAR, Forrest Research Foundation Fellow) and Andrew Mummery (Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton) show that supermassive black holes launch their outflows at the same critical accretion rate as stellar-mass black holes — about 2% of the Eddington limit — making accretion-outflow coupling scale-invariant across seven orders of magnitude in mass. Nature Astronomy, 17 September 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41550-026-02951-1 JWST's Little Red Dots are black hole seeds caught mid-growth Sunmyon Chon, Shingo Hirano, Tomoaki Ishiyama, Seok-Jun Chang and Volker Springel ran fully cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations on Japan's ATERUI III supercomputer and produced heavy black hole seeds of about a million solar masses, whose optically thick discs generate exactly the broad hydrogen emission seen in Little Red Dots. Nature 657, 621-625, 16 September 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10985-8 Earth's centre of mass moves about half as far as we thought Donald Argus, Felix Landerer and colleagues at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the University of Nevada, the University of Montana and the Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, revise the annual oscillation between Earth's centre of mass and its centre of figure down from roughly 11 millimetres to about 4 to 5.5. Geophysical Journal International, ggag314. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggag314 Two numbers explain the weather on a world 20 light-years away Merle Schrader and colleagues at Trinity College Dublin applied principal component analysis to one rotation of JWST spectroscopy of the brown dwarf SIMP 0136 and found two components — temperature and vertical cloud structure — account for all the detectable variability. Astronomy & Astrophysics, open access. DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202660109 The Sun goes blank With only active region AR4528 left on the Earth-facing disc and rotating out of view, the Sun was on the verge of its first spotless day since 24 February 2026 — which itself ended a 1,335-day run of continuous sunspot activity stretching back to June 2022. Skywatch: Venus at greatest brilliancy, first quarter Moon, Observe the Moon Night Venus reaches greatest brilliancy on 18 September at magnitude -4.8; the Moon reaches exact first quarter at 20:43 UTC the same day, setting up International Observe the Moon Night on Saturday 19 September. All times and altitudes in this segment were computed for Sydney, Los Angeles, New York and London. SKYWATCH — COMPUTED REFERENCE Computed in-session with PyEphem 4.2.1. Local times. Sydney on AEST (UTC+10); Los Angeles PDT; New York EDT; London BST. City Sunset Venus alt Venus sets Mercury Mars pre-dawn Sydney 17:45 39.2 deg 20:58 (3h13m) 16.4 deg (sets 1h20m) 20.4 deg Los Angeles 18:52 14.3 deg 20:10 (1h19m) 8.8 deg (sets 0h43m) 48.4 deg New York 18:56 10.3 deg 19:59 (1h03m) 7.0 deg (sets 0h38m) 46.1 deg London 19:04 3.6 deg 19:32 (0h28m) 3.9 deg (sets 0h26m) 40.6 deg · Venus greatest brilliancy: 18 September 2026, magnitude -4.8. Disc 39.6 arcsec, 26% illuminated. · By 22 September the disc has grown to 42.3 arcsec but the lit fraction has fallen to 22.7% — the two changes nearly cancel, which is why listings disagree on the date. The peak is genuinely flat. · Moon reaches exact first quarter 18 September at 20:43 UTC = 06:43 AEST Sat 19 Sep / 16:43 EDT Fri 18 / 13:43 PDT Fri 18 / 21:43 BST Fri 18. · Moon altitude at sunset: Sydney 81.6 deg (near overhead), Los Angeles 27.1 deg, New York 20.4 deg, London 9.4 deg. · International Observe the Moon Night: Saturday 19 September 2026. NASA event at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center, Huntsville, 5:30-8:00pm CST. · Pre-dawn Sat 19 Sep at nautical dawn — Jupiter: Los Angeles 26.4 deg, New York 25.1 deg, London 21.9 deg, Sydney 8.9 deg. · Mars-Jupiter separation: 22.9 deg on 18 Sep, 12.0 deg mid-October, 1.2 deg mid-November 2026. · Saturn is up essentially all night; sets 06:47 Sydney, 07:55 Los Angeles. Opposition 4 October 2026, disc 19.6 arcsec, rings approx 7 deg open. · September equinox: a single instant, 00:05:09 UTC on 23 September 2026 — evening of the 22nd in the Americas, mid-morning of the 23rd in Australia. · All figures computed in-session with PyEphem 4.2.1 for the four reference cities. Sydney is on AEST (UTC+10); daylight saving begins 4 October.
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WEBVTT
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Anna: Take a black hole 10 times the mass of the
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Sun. Now take one 10 million times
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heavier, the kind that sits in the middle of
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a galaxy and anchors a hundred billion
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stars.
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Avery: Those two objects have almost nothing in
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common. Different sizes, different
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neighbourhoods, different life storeys.
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One of them you could fit inside a city. The
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other one you could pour the entire inner
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solar system into and still have room.
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Anna: And this week, a team led out of Perth has
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shown that when it comes to the single most
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dramatic thing a black hole does, firing a
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jet of material out into space at close to
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the speed of light, both of them wait for
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exactly the same moment,
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Avery: same trigger, same threshold,
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seven orders of magnitude apart.
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Anna: Hello and welcome to Astronomy AstroDailyPod.
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I'm Anna.
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Avery: And I'm avery. It's Friday the 18th
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of September, 2026, and this is
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episode 197.
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Anna: So let's start with the thing that makes this
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hard. Black holes don't emit anything
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themselves. What we actually see is the
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material falling in. It piles up into a
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disc. It heats up through friction until it's
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glowing across the electromagnetic spectrum.
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And then sometimes, not always, but
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sometimes, some of it gets flung back out in
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a narrow, tightly collimated jet.
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Avery: And the question of when you get a jet and
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when you don't has been open for decades.
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Anna: It m has. But for one class of black hole,
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we actually have a very good answer. Stellar
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mass. Black holes, the ones left behind when
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a massive Star collapses maybe five to 20
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times the Sun's mass, often sit in binary
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systems, pulling material off a companion
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star. And those systems cycle. They
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brighten, they fade, they go through what
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astronomers call state transitions, and they
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do it over weeks and months, which
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Avery: means we've watched the whole process start
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to finish many times over
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many, many times.
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Anna: And what we've learned is that the jets
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switch on and off at particular points in
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that cycle. And those points are tied to how
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fast the black hole is feeding, measured
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against something called the Eddington limit.
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Avery: And this is worth spelling out, because
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everything else today rests on
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really does.
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Anna: So material falling toward a black hole gets
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extremely hot, and hot material radiates.
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That radiation pushes outward, gravity
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pulls inward. The Eddington limit is the
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point where those two balance, where the
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radiation coming off the infalling material
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is pushing outward just as hard as the black
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hole's gravity is pulling in.
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Avery: So if you try to feed a black hole faster
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than that, the radiation starts blowing the
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meal away.
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Anna: Anna. Roughly, yes.
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Though nature has ways around it, and we'll
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come back to that. The useful thing about the
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Eddington limit is that it scales with mass.
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A, uh, black hole a million times heavier has
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a limit a million times higher. So instead of
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talking about absolute brightness,
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astronomers talk in fractions of Eddington,
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10% of Eddington, 1% of
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Eddington. And that gives you a way to
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compare black holes of wildly different sizes
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on the same scale.
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Avery: Which brings us to the supermassive black
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holes. And the reason this has been so
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stubborn.
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Anna: The reason is simply time. Everything about
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an accretion flow scales with the mass of the
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black hole, and that includes how fast it
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evolves. A stellar mass system cycles in
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months. A supermassive black hole in an
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ordinary active galaxy takes something on the
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order of thousands of years to do the
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equivalent.
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Avery: So you can't watch one. You get a single
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frame of a film that runs for millennia,
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exactly that.
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Anna: You can look at thousands of active galaxies
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and take a census. Here's one with a jet,
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here's one without. But you can never watch a
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single object cross a threshold and see what
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happens. Which means the critical accretion
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rates that we know so precisely for stellar
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mass black holes have simply been
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unmeasurable for the big ones.
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Avery: Unless something gives a supermassive black
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hole a sudden, well defined meal.
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Anna: And that's the move. Tidal disruption
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events. A, uh, star wanders too close to the
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supermassive black hole at the centre of its
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galaxy. The difference in gravitational pull
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across the star exceeds what's holding the
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star together and it comes apart.
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Roughly half the debris gets flung away and
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the other half falls back and builds a brand
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new accretion disc from nothing.
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Avery: And that one plays out fast.
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Anna: Years, not millennia. You get to watch
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an accretion flow around a supermassive black
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hole be born, rise,
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peak and decline. And you can do it
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inside a single research career. That is the
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entire reason this result was possible.
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Avery: So Dr. Adele Goodwin at, uh, Curtin
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University's International Centre for Radio
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Astronomy Research in Perth, who's also
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a Forest Research foundation fellow,
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working with Dr. Andrew Mummery at the
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Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton,
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published in Nature astronomy yesterday,
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Thursday 17th September.
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Anna: And what they show is that tidal disruption
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events actually launch outflows twice
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in two physically distinct episodes. The
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first comes early, while the black hole is
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feeding above its Eddington limit. That brief
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ferocious phase right after the star comes
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apart, when there's far more material trying
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to get in than the black hole can comfortably
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swallow.
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Avery: The prompt outflow, the prompt one.
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Anna: And then later, sometimes months or years
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later, there's a second separate
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outflow. And that One arrives as the
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accretion rate falls through a specific
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value, about 2% of the Eddington
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limit.
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Avery: 2%. And that number is
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familiar.
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Anna: That number is the same critical accretion
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rate at which stellar mass black holes in
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binaries make their state transitions.
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The same value we've measured over and over
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in objects millions of times smaller.
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Goodwin and Mummery are arguing that the
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coupling between how a black hole feeds and
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how it throws material back out is scale
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invariant, that it doesn't care
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Avery: about mass at all across roughly seven
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orders of magnitude, which, if it
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holds,
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Anna: is a genuinely unifying statement about a
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class of object we usually treat as two
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separate populations.
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Avery: And it also clears up a mess, doesn't it?
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Because radio astronomers have had an awkward
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problem with these events for a while,
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Anna: a very awkward one. Some tidal disruption
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events produce a radio flare almost
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immediately. Some produce one much later,
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out of nowhere, sometimes years after
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everyone has stopped paying attention. Some
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appear to produce nothing at all that looked
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like three different phenomena or worse, like
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noise.
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Avery: And the two outflow picture makes it
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Anna: one phenomenon, one phenomenon with two
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stages, where whether you see either of them
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depends on when you happen to be looking and
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how the accretion rate was falling. The
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prompt and delayed outflows stop being a
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puzzle and start being a prediction.
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Avery: And Goodwin makes a very practical point
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about that.
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Anna: She does, and it's my favourite part of the
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release. Her line is quote,
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radio telescopes are incredibly powerful, but
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knowing when to look is just as important as
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knowing where to look. And she goes on,
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if we can anticipate when a black hole is
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more likely to launch a jet, we can run
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better targeted campaigns, waste fewer
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observations and improve our chances of
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catching these rare events. At the moment,
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they matter most, which
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Avery: is not a small thing when you're competing
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for time on the world's big dishes.
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Anna: It's the difference between a survey and a
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stakeout. And it matters enormously for
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what's coming, because the Vera Rubin
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Observatory is about to start finding tidal
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disruption events in numbers we've never had
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before. If you can look at the optical light
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curve and predict roughly when the radio
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outflow should arrive, you can have the radio
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telescopes ready.
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Avery: Without that, you're guessing, and this
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one is properly ours.
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Anna: It is led from Curtin University in
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Perth through icrar, and the underlying data
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set is the product of years of multi
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wavelength campaigns, drawing on telescopes
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in Australia, the United States, India,
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South Africa and in space. This is
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not a single instrument result. It's a
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decade of patient radio follow up on rare
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events assembled into One
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Avery: picture, and it lands in the same week that
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we're talking about the Square Kilometre
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Array's southern half taking shape out in
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Western Australia, which is precisely the
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Anna: instrument you'd want pointed at the next
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one.
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Avery: Two things to keep straight, though.
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Anna: Yes. The first is that this is a
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threshold, not a switch. Saying
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black holes launch outflows at around
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2% of Eddington is a statement
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about where the transition sits, not a
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promise that every black hole crossing that
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line will produce a jet you can detect.
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Whether you actually see one depends on the
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environment, the geometry, the distance
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and the luck of having a telescope pointed in
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the right direction.
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Avery: And the second?
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Anna: The second is about timing. And we want to be
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straight with you. This was published in
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Nature Astronomy yesterday. That's real. And
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the peer review is done. But the preprint
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went up on the archive back in February. So
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while this is newly published, it is not
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newly written. And if it feels vaguely
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familiar to anyone who follows the preprint
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servers closely, that's why.
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Avery: Which is a pattern we flagged before on this
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show.
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Anna: It is, and we'll keep flagging it. The
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science is no less good for having waited
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seven months in review. But published
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this week and discovered this week are
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different claims, and we try very hard not to
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blur them.
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Avery: Longtime listeners will hear some threads
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here, too. We covered a wandering black hole
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revealed by a tidal disruption event back in
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episode 153. And a, uh, quasar
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driving turbulence across 300,000 light
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years in 154.
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Anna: And the partial disruptions that fade and
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come back in episode 185.
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This result is the framework those individual
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objects have been waiting for.
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Avery: Now on to storey two. That phrase.
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Super Eddington came up in the lead, and
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it's about to come up again. Because the
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second storey this week is also about a black
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hole eating faster than it should be able to
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just 11 billion years earlier.
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Anna: The little red dots.
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Avery: The little red dots. And if you've been with
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us a while, you'll know these have been one
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of the most irritating things the James Webb
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Space Telescope has found. Extremely
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compact, extremely red,
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extremely numerous in the early universe.
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They show the broad hydrogen emission lines
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you'd expect from gas whipping around a black
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hole. But there are far too many of them.
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And the black holes implied are far too heavy
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for the galaxies they sit in.
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Anna: Which has produced a small industry of
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explanations.
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Avery: Some of them fairly exotic, some very
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exotic. So here's what's new.
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A team led by Sun Myun Chan, with
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Shingo Hirano Tomoaki ishiyama
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Sukjoon Chang and Volker Springle,
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published in Nature on 16 September,
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ran fully cosmological radiation
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hydrodynamic simulations of a dense
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protocluster region in the early universe
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using Japan's Atarui UH3
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supercomputer.
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Anna: And crucially, without putting the answer in
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by hand.
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Avery: That's the point. They didn't seed the
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simulation with the black holes they wanted.
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They let the physics run. And what happens
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is in that intensely over dense environment,
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the the giant gas clouds are bathed in so
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much ultraviolet radiation that they can't
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fragment into ordinary stars. Normally
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a big cloud breaks up into lots of little
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stellar nurseries. Here it can't.
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So instead the whole thing collapses as one
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object, a primordial supermassive star,
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which then promptly collapses into a black
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hole, a heavy seed. A
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heavy seed of around a million solar
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masses, which is roughly 10 times heavier
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than theory typically expects. And then those
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seeds develop dense optically thick discs,
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so thick that light bounces around inside
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them, scattering off free electrons on the
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way out. And that electron scattering
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smears the hydrogen emission into exactly the
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broad lines we see in little red dots.
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Anna: So the broad lines aren't necessarily telling
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you the gas is moving as fast as you'd
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assumed.
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Avery: That's the elegant bit. Part of the width is
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scattering, not velocity. And then
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sustained super Eddington accretion drives
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the thing up to around 30 million solar
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masses by a redshift of 8, which puts
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it right in the population of overmassive
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quasars. Webb keeps finding.
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Anna: So it's one continuous storey seed
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dot quasar and eventually the
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supermassive black holes sitting in galaxies
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today.
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Avery: One storey, with the little red dot phase
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being short and dust shrouded. A, uh, stage
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rather than a species. And the timing is
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rather lovely because Nature Astronomy
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published a whole focus issue on little red
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dots the same week, including a review
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by Hannah Hubler on massive black holes
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in the first billion years. M the field is
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consolidating and this happens to be the week
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it did it.
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Anna: One caution, though, and it's the same one we
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gave for the black hole feedback work last
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month.
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Avery: Go on.
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Anna: This is a simulation that reproduces the
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observations. That's a demonstration that the
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physics is sufficient. You don't need
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anything exotic to get little red dots. It is
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not, on its own proof that this is what
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actually happened. Other routes may also
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produce them. What would settle it is a
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direct measurement of one of these objects
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that distinguishes scattering broadened lines
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from genuinely fast
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Avery: gas, which is exactly the Kind of thing
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Webb could do.
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Anna: Right, next up, let's come all the way back,
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about 6,000 kilometres, in fact, to the
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middle of the Earth, which
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Avery: is not where you think it is.
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Anna: It really isn't. And this is one of those
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facts that sounds like a trick until you sit
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with it. There are two different centres of
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the Earth. There's the centre of figure, the
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geometric middle of the solid planet surface,
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which is essentially fixed. And there's the
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centre of mass, the balance point of
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everything the planet is made of.
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Avery: And the planet is partly made of water and
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air, which move constantly.
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Anna: Snow falls across Siberia and Canada.
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The Apple basin floods. The monsoon
370
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arrives over Southeast Asia. Every one of
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those shifts an enormous amount of mass from
372
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one part of the planet to another, and the
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balance point moves to follow it. So the
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centre of mass and the centre of figure drift
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apart and back together over the course of a
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year.
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Avery: And we care because.
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Anna: Because the centre of mass is what satellites
379
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orbit. It's the origin of the reference frame
380
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that underpins satellite navigation and
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every precise elevation measurement on the
382
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planet. If you're wrong about where it is,
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you're wrong about where everything else is.
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Avery: So how big is the wobble?
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Anna: That's the news. The traditional figure has
386
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been around 11 millimetres. A team led
387
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by Donald Argus at NASA's Jet Propulsion
388
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Laboratory now puts it at roughly four to
389
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five and a half, about half what we thought.
390
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Published in Geophysical Journal
391
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International with the JPL release on
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Tuesday.
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Avery: Half is a big, big correction for something
394
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people have been measuring for decades.
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Anna: It is. And here's how uncertain it's been.
396
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The last two international estimates, one
397
00:16:14.960 --> 00:16:17.520
from 2017 and one from 2023,
398
00:16:18.000 --> 00:16:20.280
disagree with each other by about 7
399
00:16:20.280 --> 00:16:22.840
millimetres, which is almost as large as the
400
00:16:22.840 --> 00:16:24.560
entire motion they're trying to measure.
401
00:16:24.640 --> 00:16:27.160
Avery: So the error bar was the same size as the
402
00:16:27.160 --> 00:16:27.600
signal.
403
00:16:27.680 --> 00:16:30.560
Anna: Essentially, Argus's own line
404
00:16:30.560 --> 00:16:32.880
is that the movement now looks like about
405
00:16:32.960 --> 00:16:35.360
half of of what we believed eight years ago,
406
00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:38.680
and that the mass of water and air sloshing
407
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between the hemispheres is smaller than we
408
00:16:41.640 --> 00:16:42.000
thought.
409
00:16:42.400 --> 00:16:44.440
Avery: And where does the movement actually come
410
00:16:44.440 --> 00:16:44.720
from?
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Anna: Three main ocean,
412
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atmosphere and land water.
413
00:16:50.400 --> 00:16:53.360
In March, snow sitting across Eurasia and
414
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North America pulls the centre of mass about
415
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3 millimetres toward the northern Pole.
416
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Then, in April, the Apple hits its annual
417
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water maximum, around 2,400
418
00:17:04.890 --> 00:17:07.210
gigatons, and tugs it roughly
419
00:17:07.210 --> 00:17:09.690
2.2 millimetres towards south America.
420
00:17:10.090 --> 00:17:11.970
Later in the year, monsoon water across
421
00:17:11.970 --> 00:17:14.810
Southeast Asia peaks at around 600 gigatons
422
00:17:14.890 --> 00:17:16.570
and pulls in its own direction.
423
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Avery: None of which wins.
424
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Anna: None of which wins they combine into an
425
00:17:20.850 --> 00:17:23.730
annual oscillation that never settles. And
426
00:17:23.730 --> 00:17:25.730
my favourite complication in the whole study
427
00:17:25.730 --> 00:17:28.699
is this. When you pile trillions of tonnes of
428
00:17:28.699 --> 00:17:31.059
water onto a continent, the crust
429
00:17:31.059 --> 00:17:33.979
flexes under the load, which means the ground
430
00:17:33.979 --> 00:17:36.019
stations you're using to measure the movement
431
00:17:36.019 --> 00:17:37.219
are themselves moving.
432
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Avery: You have to subtract the observatory from the
433
00:17:39.739 --> 00:17:41.539
observation you do.
434
00:17:41.939 --> 00:17:44.379
Anna: They handled it by combining laser ranging to
435
00:17:44.379 --> 00:17:47.059
satellites, and that's the LAGEOS technique,
436
00:17:47.139 --> 00:17:49.259
which Australia contributes to from the Matt
437
00:17:49.259 --> 00:17:51.899
Stromlo station outside Canberra with
438
00:17:51.899 --> 00:17:54.520
GPS and with the Grace Follow On Gravity
439
00:17:54.520 --> 00:17:56.640
mission, then modelling the crustal
440
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deformation out and
441
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Avery: the practical end, um, of it.
442
00:17:59.520 --> 00:18:02.200
Anna: Felix Landerer, one of the CO authors, put it
443
00:18:02.200 --> 00:18:04.280
well. He said that while these movements
444
00:18:04.280 --> 00:18:07.200
might appear tiny, our modern world relies on
445
00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:10.080
extremely accurate positioning and that by
446
00:18:10.080 --> 00:18:11.880
understanding what changes the reference
447
00:18:11.880 --> 00:18:14.040
system, we can build better reference
448
00:18:14.040 --> 00:18:16.400
systems. He lists the beneficiaries as
449
00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:18.640
everything from global shipping logistics to
450
00:18:18.640 --> 00:18:20.580
precision agriculture, which
451
00:18:20.580 --> 00:18:23.540
Avery: is a long way from black holes. And I rather
452
00:18:23.540 --> 00:18:24.900
like that about this job.
453
00:18:25.460 --> 00:18:26.100
Anna: Me too.
454
00:18:26.740 --> 00:18:29.380
Avery: Last storey, and it's a small, clever one.
455
00:18:30.020 --> 00:18:32.820
20 light years away, there's an object called
456
00:18:32.820 --> 00:18:35.540
Simp M0136.
457
00:18:36.100 --> 00:18:38.940
It's a brown dwarf, too heavy to be a, uh,
458
00:18:39.060 --> 00:18:42.060
planet in the ordinary sense, too light to
459
00:18:42.060 --> 00:18:44.860
have ever ignited hydrogen fusion and become
460
00:18:44.860 --> 00:18:47.490
a star. It sits right on the
461
00:18:47.490 --> 00:18:50.410
boundary and it has no host star at
462
00:18:50.410 --> 00:18:53.290
all. It's just drifting, which makes
463
00:18:53.290 --> 00:18:55.170
it unusually easy to study,
464
00:18:55.810 --> 00:18:58.690
enormously easier. Normally, if
465
00:18:58.690 --> 00:19:00.810
you want to look at a giant planet's
466
00:19:00.810 --> 00:19:03.410
atmosphere, you're fighting the glare of the
467
00:19:03.410 --> 00:19:06.290
star next to it. Here, there's no star.
468
00:19:06.610 --> 00:19:09.250
You just point and look. Which is why
469
00:19:09.250 --> 00:19:11.890
Simp0136
470
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has become the reference object for what
471
00:19:14.330 --> 00:19:17.130
directly imaged giant planets are probably
472
00:19:17.130 --> 00:19:17.490
like.
473
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Anna: And it varies.
474
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Avery: It spins once every 2 hours and
475
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25 minutes, and as it spins, its
476
00:19:24.830 --> 00:19:27.710
brightness changes by a few percent different
477
00:19:27.710 --> 00:19:30.470
amounts at different wavelengths. Which tells
478
00:19:30.470 --> 00:19:33.390
you there's weather, clouds, hotspots,
479
00:19:33.470 --> 00:19:36.030
chemistry, all of it changing as different
480
00:19:36.030 --> 00:19:39.030
faces rotate into view. The trouble has
481
00:19:39.030 --> 00:19:40.670
been that it's looked fantastically
482
00:19:40.670 --> 00:19:43.070
complicated. Multiple mechanisms,
483
00:19:43.150 --> 00:19:45.390
multiple layers, all tangled together.
484
00:19:46.180 --> 00:19:47.380
Anna: So what did they do differently?
485
00:19:47.780 --> 00:19:50.500
Avery: They stopped assuming. Merle Schrader,
486
00:19:50.660 --> 00:19:53.220
a PhD candidate at Trinity College
487
00:19:53.220 --> 00:19:55.940
Dublin with colleagues there and elsewhere,
488
00:19:56.180 --> 00:19:58.300
took one full rotation of Webb
489
00:19:58.300 --> 00:20:01.100
spectroscopy and ran principal Component
490
00:20:01.100 --> 00:20:03.860
Analysis on it, which is a technique for
491
00:20:03.860 --> 00:20:06.660
asking a data set the blunt question, how
492
00:20:06.660 --> 00:20:09.100
many independent things are actually changing
493
00:20:09.100 --> 00:20:11.380
here? Not, does my model fit,
494
00:20:11.930 --> 00:20:14.330
Just how many knobs are being turned?
495
00:20:14.730 --> 00:20:17.290
Anna: And the answer was two.
496
00:20:17.850 --> 00:20:20.330
Avery: Two components are enough to push what's left
497
00:20:20.330 --> 00:20:22.250
over down to the Noise floor of the
498
00:20:22.250 --> 00:20:25.010
instrument. Which means that within what Webb
499
00:20:25.010 --> 00:20:27.530
can detect, there is nothing else going on.
500
00:20:28.010 --> 00:20:29.050
Anna: And what are the two?
501
00:20:29.530 --> 00:20:32.530
Avery: The first is broadband. It moves the whole
502
00:20:32.530 --> 00:20:35.530
spectrum together and that's temperature. The
503
00:20:35.530 --> 00:20:38.380
second is chromatic wavelength dependent
504
00:20:38.380 --> 00:20:40.900
and that traces the vertical structure of the
505
00:20:40.900 --> 00:20:43.860
clouds, how high and how thick they are.
506
00:20:44.180 --> 00:20:46.940
And between them, those two resolve into
507
00:20:46.940 --> 00:20:49.820
three recurring patches that are
508
00:20:49.820 --> 00:20:52.380
hotter with thinner cloud, patches that are
509
00:20:52.380 --> 00:20:54.980
cooler with thick vertically extended cloud
510
00:20:55.300 --> 00:20:57.700
and transitional regions between the two.
511
00:20:58.100 --> 00:20:59.940
Anna: So it looks chaotic and it's actually
512
00:20:59.940 --> 00:21:00.660
organised.
513
00:21:00.900 --> 00:21:03.320
Avery: Low dimensional is the term. Uh, a
514
00:21:03.320 --> 00:21:05.880
famously messy atmosphere turns out to be
515
00:21:05.880 --> 00:21:08.640
running on two dials. And the team then
516
00:21:08.640 --> 00:21:11.280
went further and projected model atmospheres
517
00:21:11.280 --> 00:21:14.040
into the same mathematical space and
518
00:21:14.040 --> 00:21:16.600
found the models largely occupy the same
519
00:21:16.600 --> 00:21:19.520
territory, which is a decent sign the models
520
00:21:19.520 --> 00:21:21.880
are capturing the right physics rather than
521
00:21:21.880 --> 00:21:23.280
accidentally agreeing.
522
00:21:23.920 --> 00:21:26.240
Anna: Two notes of care on this one, please.
523
00:21:26.800 --> 00:21:28.960
The first is that some of the coverage has
524
00:21:28.960 --> 00:21:31.240
described these patterns as persisting over
525
00:21:31.240 --> 00:21:34.150
more than a dozen rotations. The paper's
526
00:21:34.150 --> 00:21:37.110
core analysis is one rotation. That's a
527
00:21:37.110 --> 00:21:39.390
real and interesting result. But a second
528
00:21:39.390 --> 00:21:42.070
high quality rotation is precisely the test
529
00:21:42.070 --> 00:21:44.590
that would confirm the pattern's hold. So
530
00:21:44.590 --> 00:21:46.670
we'll describe it as the test rather than the
531
00:21:46.670 --> 00:21:47.150
finding.
532
00:21:47.630 --> 00:21:49.870
Avery: And the second is our usual one.
533
00:21:50.190 --> 00:21:52.830
Anna: The preprint went up in late July, so there's
534
00:21:52.830 --> 00:21:54.670
about a seven week gap before the journal
535
00:21:54.670 --> 00:21:56.670
version and the Trinity release this week.
536
00:21:57.230 --> 00:21:59.310
Shorter than yesterday's, but worth saying.
537
00:22:00.040 --> 00:22:02.680
Avery: And one lovely human detail to finish.
538
00:22:03.320 --> 00:22:06.240
Simp 0136 is
539
00:22:06.240 --> 00:22:09.040
20 light years away. The web data
540
00:22:09.040 --> 00:22:11.160
Schrader analysed was gathered in
541
00:22:11.160 --> 00:22:13.880
2023, so the light she was working
542
00:22:13.880 --> 00:22:16.360
with left that object in the year she was
543
00:22:16.360 --> 00:22:16.760
born.
544
00:22:17.400 --> 00:22:18.920
Anna: That's a very good reason to go into
545
00:22:18.920 --> 00:22:19.640
astronomy.
546
00:22:20.200 --> 00:22:22.680
Avery: Now we have one more quick one before
547
00:22:22.680 --> 00:22:23.480
Skywatch.
548
00:22:24.040 --> 00:22:27.040
Anna: We do indeed. The sun has gone very quiet
549
00:22:27.040 --> 00:22:27.640
indeed.
550
00:22:28.040 --> 00:22:28.840
Avery: How quiet?
551
00:22:29.320 --> 00:22:32.320
Anna: Very nearly blank. As of yesterday, there was
552
00:22:32.320 --> 00:22:34.800
exactly one numbered active region left on
553
00:22:34.800 --> 00:22:35.960
the Earth facing side,
554
00:22:36.280 --> 00:22:39.040
AR4528. And it's
555
00:22:39.040 --> 00:22:42.040
rotating out of view as we speak. If nothing
556
00:22:42.040 --> 00:22:44.480
new emerges behind it, we're about to get the
557
00:22:44.480 --> 00:22:47.280
Sun's first spotless day since the 24th of
558
00:22:47.280 --> 00:22:48.360
February this year.
559
00:22:48.760 --> 00:22:50.920
Avery: And February was itself notable.
560
00:22:51.480 --> 00:22:53.080
Anna: February ended a streak of
561
00:22:53.080 --> 00:22:56.040
1,335 consecutive
562
00:22:56.040 --> 00:22:59.040
days, with at least one sunspot going all
563
00:22:59.040 --> 00:23:01.080
the way back to June 2022.
564
00:23:01.800 --> 00:23:04.354
Solar cycle 25 peaked in October
565
00:23:04.486 --> 00:23:07.279
2024. And this is what the downhill side
566
00:23:07.279 --> 00:23:09.920
looks like for scale. The last
567
00:23:09.920 --> 00:23:12.360
solar minimum between 2018 and
568
00:23:12.360 --> 00:23:15.160
2020 delivered something like 700
569
00:23:15.240 --> 00:23:16.200
spotless days.
570
00:23:16.850 --> 00:23:19.410
Avery: And minimum itself is still Some way
571
00:23:19.410 --> 00:23:22.290
Anna: off, not expected before about 2030.
572
00:23:22.850 --> 00:23:25.290
But here's the part worth holding onto. And
573
00:23:25.290 --> 00:23:28.250
it connects two storeys we've run recently. A
574
00:23:28.250 --> 00:23:31.010
quiet sun is not a harmless sun. It's a
575
00:23:31.010 --> 00:23:33.450
differently hazardous one. We Talked in
576
00:23:33.450 --> 00:23:36.050
episode 192 about the energy a, uh, big
577
00:23:36.050 --> 00:23:38.730
active region can store for a superflare, and
578
00:23:38.730 --> 00:23:41.330
in 193 about cosmic radiation at
579
00:23:41.330 --> 00:23:44.180
aviation altitudes. And that second one
580
00:23:44.180 --> 00:23:46.980
runs the opposite way. When the sun is quiet,
581
00:23:47.300 --> 00:23:49.700
its magnetic field does less to shield the
582
00:23:49.700 --> 00:23:52.700
inner solar system, so galactic cosmic rays
583
00:23:52.700 --> 00:23:55.540
get through more easily. Radiation dose
584
00:23:55.540 --> 00:23:58.499
at cruising altitude runs 40 to 60% higher
585
00:23:58.499 --> 00:24:00.580
at solar minimum than at maximum.
586
00:24:01.140 --> 00:24:03.060
Avery: Same dial, opposite end.
587
00:24:03.540 --> 00:24:05.940
Anna: Fewer auroras, more cosmic rays.
588
00:24:06.100 --> 00:24:08.580
Avery: And that's a very good excuse to talk about
589
00:24:08.580 --> 00:24:11.510
the sky, because tonight there is something
590
00:24:11.590 --> 00:24:14.430
genuinely worth walking outside for. And
591
00:24:14.430 --> 00:24:16.070
it works from everywhere.
592
00:24:16.790 --> 00:24:17.430
Anna: Venus.
593
00:24:18.390 --> 00:24:20.630
Avery: Venus at, uh, greatest brilliancy.
594
00:24:20.870 --> 00:24:23.110
Tonight, the 18th of September,
595
00:24:23.430 --> 00:24:25.830
Venus reaches its peak brightness for this
596
00:24:25.830 --> 00:24:28.710
entire evening. Apparition magnitude M
597
00:24:29.644 --> 00:24:32.430
4.8. There is nothing else in the night
598
00:24:32.430 --> 00:24:34.710
sky that comes close except the Moon.
599
00:24:35.200 --> 00:24:37.080
Anna: And the reason it peaks tonight rather than
600
00:24:37.080 --> 00:24:39.440
when Venus is full is genuinely
601
00:24:39.440 --> 00:24:40.400
counterintuitive.
602
00:24:40.960 --> 00:24:43.400
Avery: It's the best bit of physics in the whole
603
00:24:43.400 --> 00:24:46.240
segment. Venus is not full tonight.
604
00:24:46.240 --> 00:24:49.200
It's a Crescent, only about 26%
605
00:24:49.200 --> 00:24:52.120
lit. But because it's swinging in closer
606
00:24:52.120 --> 00:24:54.720
to us, that crescent has swollen to
607
00:24:54.720 --> 00:24:56.720
nearly 40 arcseconds across.
608
00:24:57.440 --> 00:25:00.080
Brightness is lit fraction multiplied by
609
00:25:00.080 --> 00:25:02.870
apparent size. And right now, the disc is
610
00:25:02.870 --> 00:25:05.310
growing faster than the illuminated fraction
611
00:25:05.310 --> 00:25:06.190
is shrinking.
612
00:25:06.590 --> 00:25:08.910
Anna: A big, thin crescent beats a small
613
00:25:09.070 --> 00:25:11.310
Avery: full disc every time.
614
00:25:11.790 --> 00:25:14.550
And if you have binoculars, hold them steady
615
00:25:14.550 --> 00:25:16.990
and you'll actually see the crescent shape.
616
00:25:17.550 --> 00:25:20.030
At 40 arcseconds, it's within reach,
617
00:25:20.510 --> 00:25:22.710
which surprises people, because we don't
618
00:25:22.710 --> 00:25:25.070
think of Venus as something you can resolve.
619
00:25:25.470 --> 00:25:27.190
Anna: And if you see a different date quoted
620
00:25:27.190 --> 00:25:29.560
somewhere, some listings say the 22nd.
621
00:25:30.040 --> 00:25:32.800
Both are defensible. The peak is very
622
00:25:32.800 --> 00:25:35.480
flat. Between tonight and the 22nd,
623
00:25:35.480 --> 00:25:37.480
the lit fraction drops from about
624
00:25:37.560 --> 00:25:40.480
26% to 23, while
625
00:25:40.480 --> 00:25:43.240
the disc grows from roughly 40 arc seconds
626
00:25:43.240 --> 00:25:46.000
to 42. And those two changes
627
00:25:46.000 --> 00:25:48.440
very nearly cancel. So you're not going to
628
00:25:48.440 --> 00:25:50.120
miss it by going out on the wrong night.
629
00:25:50.760 --> 00:25:53.440
Avery: Now, how well you do tonight depends
630
00:25:53.440 --> 00:25:55.800
enormously on where you're standing and. And
631
00:25:55.800 --> 00:25:57.320
the gap is dramatic.
632
00:25:57.880 --> 00:26:00.680
Anna: From Sydney, this is a spectacle. Sunset is
633
00:26:00.680 --> 00:26:03.480
at quarter to six, and at that moment, Venus
634
00:26:03.480 --> 00:26:06.120
is 39 degrees above the western horizon.
635
00:26:06.440 --> 00:26:08.400
That's more than a third of the way up the
636
00:26:08.400 --> 00:26:11.200
sky. It doesn't set until just before 9 o',
637
00:26:11.200 --> 00:26:14.000
clock, which gives you 3 hours and 13 minutes
638
00:26:14.000 --> 00:26:16.920
of Venus after sunset. You do not need
639
00:26:16.920 --> 00:26:19.480
a clear horizon. You do not need to hurry.
640
00:26:19.960 --> 00:26:22.320
Avery: And from the Northern Hemisphere, it's a
641
00:26:22.320 --> 00:26:25.210
different evening entirely. From Los
642
00:26:25.210 --> 00:26:27.930
Angeles, sunset is at 10 to 7
643
00:26:27.930 --> 00:26:30.410
and Venus is 14 degrees up.
644
00:26:30.650 --> 00:26:33.610
It sets an hour and 19 minutes after the
645
00:26:33.610 --> 00:26:36.490
sun. From New York, 10 degrees up
646
00:26:36.730 --> 00:26:39.290
one hour and three minutes. From
647
00:26:39.290 --> 00:26:42.050
London, three and a half degrees at sunset
648
00:26:42.050 --> 00:26:44.170
and gone 28 minutes later.
649
00:26:44.570 --> 00:26:47.050
Anna: Which is not Venus being fainter. It's
650
00:26:47.050 --> 00:26:49.170
exactly as bright everywhere. It's the
651
00:26:49.170 --> 00:26:49.770
geometry.
652
00:26:50.390 --> 00:26:53.190
Avery: It's the tilt of the ecliptic. At this
653
00:26:53.190 --> 00:26:55.270
time of year, the plane of the solar system
654
00:26:55.350 --> 00:26:57.950
stands almost vertically out of the western
655
00:26:57.950 --> 00:27:00.470
horizon at dusk from the Southern Hemisphere.
656
00:27:00.950 --> 00:27:03.630
So anything on that plane climbs steeply and
657
00:27:03.630 --> 00:27:06.630
takes a long time to set. From the Northern
658
00:27:06.630 --> 00:27:09.390
Hemisphere in September, that same plane
659
00:27:09.390 --> 00:27:12.230
lies down almost flat against the horizon,
660
00:27:12.310 --> 00:27:15.070
and everything on it skims sideways and
661
00:27:15.070 --> 00:27:15.910
sets quickly.
662
00:27:15.910 --> 00:27:18.600
Anna: So northern listeners, here's the practical
663
00:27:18.600 --> 00:27:21.400
version. Find a spot with a genuinely clear,
664
00:27:21.720 --> 00:27:24.520
flat western horizon. No trees,
665
00:27:24.760 --> 00:27:27.560
no buildings. Start looking 20 minutes after
666
00:27:27.560 --> 00:27:30.120
sunset and don't leave it much past 45.
667
00:27:30.440 --> 00:27:32.280
It'll be the brightest thing in that part of
668
00:27:32.280 --> 00:27:34.760
the sky by an enormous margin. So you won't
669
00:27:34.760 --> 00:27:36.360
be in any doubt once you've got it.
670
00:27:36.600 --> 00:27:39.440
Avery: And a bonus for the South, Mercury is
671
00:27:39.440 --> 00:27:42.160
up there, too. From Sydney, Mercury
672
00:27:42.160 --> 00:27:44.720
is 16 degrees above the horizon at
673
00:27:44.720 --> 00:27:47.570
sunset and and doesn't set for an hour and
674
00:27:47.570 --> 00:27:50.170
20 minutes, which for Mercury is a
675
00:27:50.170 --> 00:27:52.930
comfortable viewing window. From Los Angeles,
676
00:27:52.930 --> 00:27:55.730
it's 9 degrees and 43 minutes.
677
00:27:56.050 --> 00:27:58.970
From London, 4 degrees and 26
678
00:27:58.970 --> 00:28:01.970
minutes. That one really is a southern target
679
00:28:01.970 --> 00:28:02.610
this week.
680
00:28:03.010 --> 00:28:05.170
Anna: And then there's the Moon, which is doing
681
00:28:05.170 --> 00:28:06.770
something rather precise tonight.
682
00:28:07.170 --> 00:28:10.050
Avery: First quarter, and it's exact. The Moon
683
00:28:10.050 --> 00:28:12.610
reaches first quarter at 2043
684
00:28:12.850 --> 00:28:15.670
Universal Time tonight. That's quarter to
685
00:28:15.670 --> 00:28:18.510
5 on Friday afternoon in New York, quarter
686
00:28:18.510 --> 00:28:21.390
to 2 in Los Angeles, quarter to 10
687
00:28:21.390 --> 00:28:23.990
on Friday evening in London, and for
688
00:28:23.990 --> 00:28:26.550
Australia, 20 to 7 on Saturday
689
00:28:26.710 --> 00:28:27.110
morning.
690
00:28:27.510 --> 00:28:29.790
Anna: And from Sydney tonight, the Moon is very
691
00:28:29.790 --> 00:28:32.670
nearly overhead, 82 degrees up at
692
00:28:32.670 --> 00:28:34.670
sunset, which is close enough to straight up
693
00:28:34.670 --> 00:28:36.310
that you'll find yourself leaning back to
694
00:28:36.310 --> 00:28:36.870
look at it.
695
00:28:37.110 --> 00:28:39.190
Avery: Which matters, because tomorrow night,
696
00:28:39.430 --> 00:28:41.670
Saturday the 19th, is international.
697
00:28:42.070 --> 00:28:43.510
Observe the Moon night.
698
00:28:43.980 --> 00:28:46.140
Anna: And the timing of that is not an accident.
699
00:28:46.460 --> 00:28:48.380
It's deliberately scheduled near first
700
00:28:48.380 --> 00:28:50.660
quarter, because first quarter is when the
701
00:28:50.660 --> 00:28:53.060
Moon is at its most interesting. Through any
702
00:28:53.060 --> 00:28:55.820
optical aid along the terminator,
703
00:28:55.900 --> 00:28:58.700
the line dividing day from night, the sun is
704
00:28:58.700 --> 00:29:01.340
striking the surface at a grazing angle. So
705
00:29:01.340 --> 00:29:03.540
every crater rim and mountain throws a long
706
00:29:03.540 --> 00:29:05.420
shadow across the ground behind it.
707
00:29:05.740 --> 00:29:08.700
Avery: A full moon looks Flat. A half moon
708
00:29:08.700 --> 00:29:09.900
looks three dimensional.
709
00:29:10.570 --> 00:29:12.810
Anna: Completely three dimensional. Run the
710
00:29:12.810 --> 00:29:14.530
terminator with even a small pair of
711
00:29:14.530 --> 00:29:17.170
binoculars and the whole landscape stands up
712
00:29:17.170 --> 00:29:19.650
out of the surface. If you've only ever
713
00:29:19.650 --> 00:29:21.090
looked at a full moon and found it
714
00:29:21.090 --> 00:29:23.370
disappointing, this is the night to try
715
00:29:23.370 --> 00:29:26.169
again. NASA's own event is at the US
716
00:29:26.169 --> 00:29:28.050
Space and Rocket Centre in Huntsville
717
00:29:28.050 --> 00:29:30.290
Alabama. But the whole point is that it's
718
00:29:30.290 --> 00:29:33.290
global. You just need to go outside and
719
00:29:33.290 --> 00:29:35.730
Avery: to balance the ledger. Because the south has
720
00:29:35.730 --> 00:29:37.960
had the better of the evening, the morning
721
00:29:37.960 --> 00:29:40.360
sky belongs decisively to the north.
722
00:29:40.760 --> 00:29:43.760
Anna: It does. Mars and Jupiter are both climbing
723
00:29:43.760 --> 00:29:46.440
in the pre dawn east. And the same ecliptic
724
00:29:46.440 --> 00:29:48.560
geometry that flattened Venus for northern
725
00:29:48.560 --> 00:29:50.800
viewers works the other way around. Before
726
00:29:50.800 --> 00:29:53.720
sunrise at nautical dawn tomorrow morning,
727
00:29:54.120 --> 00:29:57.120
Mars is 48 degrees up from Los Angeles and
728
00:29:57.120 --> 00:30:00.040
46 from New York and 41 from London.
729
00:30:00.360 --> 00:30:02.960
Avery: Avery and from Sydney, 20
730
00:30:02.960 --> 00:30:03.400
degree.
731
00:30:04.090 --> 00:30:06.170
Anna: So that's very much your sky, not ours.
732
00:30:06.650 --> 00:30:09.650
Jupiter is 26 degrees up from Los Angeles and
733
00:30:09.650 --> 00:30:11.250
nine from Sydney and those
734
00:30:11.250 --> 00:30:14.090
Avery: two are closing on each other. They're about
735
00:30:14.090 --> 00:30:16.930
23 degrees apart this morning. By mid
736
00:30:16.930 --> 00:30:19.850
October that's down to 12 and
737
00:30:19.850 --> 00:30:22.450
by the middle of November they'll be a little
738
00:30:22.450 --> 00:30:25.250
over a degree apart, close enough to cover
739
00:30:25.250 --> 00:30:28.130
with a fingertip at arm's length. That's the
740
00:30:28.130 --> 00:30:29.450
one to diarize.
741
00:30:31.040 --> 00:30:33.200
Anna: Saturn meanwhile is up uh, essentially all
742
00:30:33.200 --> 00:30:35.560
night from everywhere. It doesn't set until
743
00:30:35.560 --> 00:30:38.400
nearly 7 in the morning from Sydney and just
744
00:30:38.400 --> 00:30:41.160
before 8 from Los Angeles. And it's building
745
00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:44.040
toward opposition on the 4th of October when
746
00:30:44.040 --> 00:30:46.520
the disc will be about 19 and a half arc
747
00:30:46.520 --> 00:30:49.240
seconds across with the rings roughly 7
748
00:30:49.240 --> 00:30:49.920
degrees open.
749
00:30:51.280 --> 00:30:54.080
Avery: And the equinox next week, which
750
00:30:54.080 --> 00:30:54.360
we'll
751
00:30:54.360 --> 00:30:56.440
Anna: flag carefully because we got this slightly
752
00:30:56.440 --> 00:30:58.800
wrong in an earlier episode and corrected it.
753
00:30:59.490 --> 00:31:01.890
The September equinox is a single instant,
754
00:31:02.050 --> 00:31:04.730
not a day. Five minutes past midnight
755
00:31:04.730 --> 00:31:07.450
Universal Time on the 23rd, that's the
756
00:31:07.450 --> 00:31:10.450
evening of the 22nd across the Americas and
757
00:31:10.450 --> 00:31:13.450
mid morning on the 23rd in Australia. So the
758
00:31:13.450 --> 00:31:15.290
date depends entirely on where you're
759
00:31:15.290 --> 00:31:15.730
standing.
760
00:31:16.450 --> 00:31:18.850
Avery: And one last thing which follows directly
761
00:31:18.850 --> 00:31:21.010
from that quick hit about the blank sun,
762
00:31:21.330 --> 00:31:23.810
because every time we mention sunspots
763
00:31:23.970 --> 00:31:26.370
people quite reasonably want to go and
764
00:31:26.370 --> 00:31:29.120
Anna: look and you can, but
765
00:31:29.120 --> 00:31:32.120
never, ever with unprotected eyes and never
766
00:31:32.120 --> 00:31:34.480
through binoculars or a telescope that isn't
767
00:31:34.480 --> 00:31:37.240
purpose built for it. The only safe way to
768
00:31:37.240 --> 00:31:39.960
look directly at the sun is through filters
769
00:31:39.960 --> 00:31:42.959
certified to the international standard ISO
770
00:31:42.959 --> 00:31:45.880
123122. That's
771
00:31:45.880 --> 00:31:48.480
eclipse glasses or a proper solar filter
772
00:31:48.480 --> 00:31:50.240
fitted over the front of the instrument,
773
00:31:50.640 --> 00:31:53.290
never on the eyepiece end and
774
00:31:53.290 --> 00:31:56.250
Avery: ordinary sunglasses are not solar filters.
775
00:31:56.570 --> 00:31:59.210
Neither is smoked glass, exposed film,
776
00:31:59.370 --> 00:32:02.130
a cd, or stacking several pairs of
777
00:32:02.130 --> 00:32:03.210
sunglasses together.
778
00:32:04.010 --> 00:32:06.370
Anna: None of those are safe. Cheque your eclipse
779
00:32:06.370 --> 00:32:07.650
glasses for the ISO
780
00:32:07.650 --> 00:32:10.330
123122 marking,
781
00:32:10.410 --> 00:32:12.530
and if they're scratched, punctured or you
782
00:32:12.530 --> 00:32:15.330
can't find the marking, don't use them. The
783
00:32:15.330 --> 00:32:17.770
safest option of all, and honestly the best
784
00:32:17.770 --> 00:32:20.080
one for a group, is projection.
785
00:32:20.560 --> 00:32:22.920
Put the sun's image onto a white card and
786
00:32:22.920 --> 00:32:24.800
everybody can look at once without anyone
787
00:32:24.800 --> 00:32:25.440
looking up.
788
00:32:26.160 --> 00:32:28.600
Avery: Although this week there may be nothing to
789
00:32:28.600 --> 00:32:30.400
see, which is rather the point.
790
00:32:31.040 --> 00:32:33.310
Anna: That's Astronomy daily for Friday 18th
791
00:32:33.450 --> 00:32:35.600
September. Everything we've talked about
792
00:32:35.600 --> 00:32:38.200
today, the papers, the DoIs, the full
793
00:32:38.200 --> 00:32:41.120
Skywatch figures for all four cities is in
794
00:32:41.120 --> 00:32:43.400
the show notes and on the website at
795
00:32:43.400 --> 00:32:44.320
astronomydaily
796
00:32:44.560 --> 00:32:47.450
Avery: IO, where you'll also find the full
797
00:32:47.450 --> 00:32:50.290
back catalogue, the daily newsletter and
798
00:32:50.290 --> 00:32:53.290
the contact form. And do use that contact
799
00:32:53.450 --> 00:32:55.810
form. Some of our favourite segments this
800
00:32:55.810 --> 00:32:58.090
year have come from listener questions, and
801
00:32:58.090 --> 00:32:59.850
we read every one of them.
802
00:33:00.410 --> 00:33:03.250
Anna: Go out tonight and look west. Venus will not
803
00:33:03.250 --> 00:33:04.090
be this bright again
804
00:33:04.090 --> 00:33:06.970
Avery: this year, and tomorrow night, look
805
00:33:06.970 --> 00:33:07.690
at the Moon.
806
00:33:08.250 --> 00:33:10.130
Anna: We'll be back on the weekend with this week's
807
00:33:10.130 --> 00:33:12.760
weekend wrap. Until then, clear skies.
0
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.760
Anna: Take a black hole 10 times the mass of the
1
00:00:02.760 --> 00:00:05.640
Sun. Now take one 10 million times
2
00:00:05.640 --> 00:00:08.000
heavier, the kind that sits in the middle of
3
00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:10.400
a galaxy and anchors a hundred billion
4
00:00:10.400 --> 00:00:11.040
stars.
5
00:00:11.920 --> 00:00:14.520
Avery: Those two objects have almost nothing in
6
00:00:14.520 --> 00:00:17.120
common. Different sizes, different
7
00:00:17.120 --> 00:00:19.520
neighbourhoods, different life storeys.
8
00:00:20.000 --> 00:00:23.000
One of them you could fit inside a city. The
9
00:00:23.000 --> 00:00:25.200
other one you could pour the entire inner
10
00:00:25.200 --> 00:00:27.840
solar system into and still have room.
11
00:00:28.660 --> 00:00:31.260
Anna: And this week, a team led out of Perth has
12
00:00:31.260 --> 00:00:33.220
shown that when it comes to the single most
13
00:00:33.220 --> 00:00:36.220
dramatic thing a black hole does, firing a
14
00:00:36.220 --> 00:00:38.580
jet of material out into space at close to
15
00:00:38.580 --> 00:00:40.980
the speed of light, both of them wait for
16
00:00:40.980 --> 00:00:42.260
exactly the same moment,
17
00:00:43.220 --> 00:00:45.620
Avery: same trigger, same threshold,
18
00:00:46.100 --> 00:00:48.340
seven orders of magnitude apart.
19
00:00:48.980 --> 00:00:51.140
Anna: Hello and welcome to Astronomy AstroDailyPod.
20
00:00:51.220 --> 00:00:52.180
I'm Anna.
21
00:00:52.500 --> 00:00:55.430
Avery: And I'm avery. It's Friday the 18th
22
00:00:55.430 --> 00:00:58.190
of September, 2026, and this is
23
00:00:58.190 --> 00:01:00.430
episode 197.
24
00:01:01.150 --> 00:01:02.950
Anna: So let's start with the thing that makes this
25
00:01:02.950 --> 00:01:05.510
hard. Black holes don't emit anything
26
00:01:05.510 --> 00:01:08.390
themselves. What we actually see is the
27
00:01:08.390 --> 00:01:11.270
material falling in. It piles up into a
28
00:01:11.270 --> 00:01:14.070
disc. It heats up through friction until it's
29
00:01:14.070 --> 00:01:16.430
glowing across the electromagnetic spectrum.
30
00:01:16.590 --> 00:01:18.790
And then sometimes, not always, but
31
00:01:18.790 --> 00:01:21.360
sometimes, some of it gets flung back out in
32
00:01:21.360 --> 00:01:23.560
a narrow, tightly collimated jet.
33
00:01:24.200 --> 00:01:26.320
Avery: And the question of when you get a jet and
34
00:01:26.320 --> 00:01:28.920
when you don't has been open for decades.
35
00:01:29.640 --> 00:01:32.520
Anna: It m has. But for one class of black hole,
36
00:01:32.520 --> 00:01:35.280
we actually have a very good answer. Stellar
37
00:01:35.280 --> 00:01:37.880
mass. Black holes, the ones left behind when
38
00:01:37.880 --> 00:01:40.560
a massive Star collapses maybe five to 20
39
00:01:40.560 --> 00:01:43.360
times the Sun's mass, often sit in binary
40
00:01:43.360 --> 00:01:46.000
systems, pulling material off a companion
41
00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:48.800
star. And those systems cycle. They
42
00:01:48.800 --> 00:01:51.240
brighten, they fade, they go through what
43
00:01:51.240 --> 00:01:54.080
astronomers call state transitions, and they
44
00:01:54.080 --> 00:01:56.800
do it over weeks and months, which
45
00:01:56.800 --> 00:01:59.480
Avery: means we've watched the whole process start
46
00:01:59.480 --> 00:02:01.600
to finish many times over
47
00:02:02.479 --> 00:02:03.520
many, many times.
48
00:02:04.160 --> 00:02:06.040
Anna: And what we've learned is that the jets
49
00:02:06.040 --> 00:02:08.120
switch on and off at particular points in
50
00:02:08.120 --> 00:02:11.040
that cycle. And those points are tied to how
51
00:02:11.040 --> 00:02:13.570
fast the black hole is feeding, measured
52
00:02:13.570 --> 00:02:16.090
against something called the Eddington limit.
53
00:02:16.650 --> 00:02:18.810
Avery: And this is worth spelling out, because
54
00:02:18.890 --> 00:02:20.690
everything else today rests on
55
00:02:21.930 --> 00:02:22.490
really does.
56
00:02:23.210 --> 00:02:25.810
Anna: So material falling toward a black hole gets
57
00:02:25.810 --> 00:02:28.730
extremely hot, and hot material radiates.
58
00:02:29.050 --> 00:02:31.730
That radiation pushes outward, gravity
59
00:02:31.730 --> 00:02:34.370
pulls inward. The Eddington limit is the
60
00:02:34.370 --> 00:02:36.530
point where those two balance, where the
61
00:02:36.530 --> 00:02:38.930
radiation coming off the infalling material
62
00:02:38.930 --> 00:02:41.710
is pushing outward just as hard as the black
63
00:02:41.710 --> 00:02:43.390
hole's gravity is pulling in.
64
00:02:44.270 --> 00:02:46.830
Avery: So if you try to feed a black hole faster
65
00:02:46.830 --> 00:02:49.390
than that, the radiation starts blowing the
66
00:02:49.390 --> 00:02:50.030
meal away.
67
00:02:50.190 --> 00:02:52.510
Anna: Anna. Roughly, yes.
68
00:02:53.230 --> 00:02:55.430
Though nature has ways around it, and we'll
69
00:02:55.430 --> 00:02:57.830
come back to that. The useful thing about the
70
00:02:57.830 --> 00:03:00.030
Eddington limit is that it scales with mass.
71
00:03:00.750 --> 00:03:02.950
A, uh, black hole a million times heavier has
72
00:03:02.950 --> 00:03:05.670
a limit a million times higher. So instead of
73
00:03:05.670 --> 00:03:07.230
talking about absolute brightness,
74
00:03:07.700 --> 00:03:09.940
astronomers talk in fractions of Eddington,
75
00:03:10.420 --> 00:03:12.940
10% of Eddington, 1% of
76
00:03:12.940 --> 00:03:15.180
Eddington. And that gives you a way to
77
00:03:15.180 --> 00:03:17.660
compare black holes of wildly different sizes
78
00:03:17.660 --> 00:03:18.580
on the same scale.
79
00:03:19.220 --> 00:03:21.780
Avery: Which brings us to the supermassive black
80
00:03:21.780 --> 00:03:24.540
holes. And the reason this has been so
81
00:03:24.540 --> 00:03:25.140
stubborn.
82
00:03:25.620 --> 00:03:28.500
Anna: The reason is simply time. Everything about
83
00:03:28.500 --> 00:03:30.860
an accretion flow scales with the mass of the
84
00:03:30.860 --> 00:03:33.260
black hole, and that includes how fast it
85
00:03:33.260 --> 00:03:36.240
evolves. A stellar mass system cycles in
86
00:03:36.240 --> 00:03:39.000
months. A supermassive black hole in an
87
00:03:39.000 --> 00:03:41.840
ordinary active galaxy takes something on the
88
00:03:41.840 --> 00:03:43.800
order of thousands of years to do the
89
00:03:43.800 --> 00:03:44.480
equivalent.
90
00:03:45.120 --> 00:03:47.960
Avery: So you can't watch one. You get a single
91
00:03:47.960 --> 00:03:50.560
frame of a film that runs for millennia,
92
00:03:51.120 --> 00:03:52.080
exactly that.
93
00:03:52.480 --> 00:03:54.760
Anna: You can look at thousands of active galaxies
94
00:03:54.760 --> 00:03:57.200
and take a census. Here's one with a jet,
95
00:03:57.280 --> 00:04:00.120
here's one without. But you can never watch a
96
00:04:00.120 --> 00:04:02.280
single object cross a threshold and see what
97
00:04:02.280 --> 00:04:05.120
happens. Which means the critical accretion
98
00:04:05.120 --> 00:04:07.480
rates that we know so precisely for stellar
99
00:04:07.480 --> 00:04:09.520
mass black holes have simply been
100
00:04:09.520 --> 00:04:11.040
unmeasurable for the big ones.
101
00:04:11.840 --> 00:04:14.360
Avery: Unless something gives a supermassive black
102
00:04:14.360 --> 00:04:16.960
hole a sudden, well defined meal.
103
00:04:17.520 --> 00:04:20.320
Anna: And that's the move. Tidal disruption
104
00:04:20.320 --> 00:04:23.000
events. A, uh, star wanders too close to the
105
00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:25.200
supermassive black hole at the centre of its
106
00:04:25.200 --> 00:04:28.000
galaxy. The difference in gravitational pull
107
00:04:28.000 --> 00:04:30.040
across the star exceeds what's holding the
108
00:04:30.040 --> 00:04:32.100
star together and it comes apart.
109
00:04:32.660 --> 00:04:35.100
Roughly half the debris gets flung away and
110
00:04:35.100 --> 00:04:37.300
the other half falls back and builds a brand
111
00:04:37.300 --> 00:04:39.540
new accretion disc from nothing.
112
00:04:40.180 --> 00:04:42.180
Avery: And that one plays out fast.
113
00:04:42.980 --> 00:04:45.900
Anna: Years, not millennia. You get to watch
114
00:04:45.900 --> 00:04:48.340
an accretion flow around a supermassive black
115
00:04:48.340 --> 00:04:50.500
hole be born, rise,
116
00:04:50.900 --> 00:04:53.820
peak and decline. And you can do it
117
00:04:53.820 --> 00:04:56.660
inside a single research career. That is the
118
00:04:56.660 --> 00:04:58.580
entire reason this result was possible.
119
00:04:59.750 --> 00:05:02.550
Avery: So Dr. Adele Goodwin at, uh, Curtin
120
00:05:02.550 --> 00:05:05.230
University's International Centre for Radio
121
00:05:05.230 --> 00:05:08.150
Astronomy Research in Perth, who's also
122
00:05:08.150 --> 00:05:10.630
a Forest Research foundation fellow,
123
00:05:10.870 --> 00:05:13.390
working with Dr. Andrew Mummery at the
124
00:05:13.390 --> 00:05:15.830
Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton,
125
00:05:16.390 --> 00:05:18.790
published in Nature astronomy yesterday,
126
00:05:19.110 --> 00:05:21.350
Thursday 17th September.
127
00:05:21.830 --> 00:05:24.110
Anna: And what they show is that tidal disruption
128
00:05:24.110 --> 00:05:26.390
events actually launch outflows twice
129
00:05:27.030 --> 00:05:29.750
in two physically distinct episodes. The
130
00:05:29.750 --> 00:05:32.070
first comes early, while the black hole is
131
00:05:32.070 --> 00:05:34.630
feeding above its Eddington limit. That brief
132
00:05:34.790 --> 00:05:37.070
ferocious phase right after the star comes
133
00:05:37.070 --> 00:05:39.190
apart, when there's far more material trying
134
00:05:39.190 --> 00:05:41.750
to get in than the black hole can comfortably
135
00:05:41.750 --> 00:05:42.310
swallow.
136
00:05:42.870 --> 00:05:45.830
Avery: The prompt outflow, the prompt one.
137
00:05:46.150 --> 00:05:48.750
Anna: And then later, sometimes months or years
138
00:05:48.750 --> 00:05:51.270
later, there's a second separate
139
00:05:51.270 --> 00:05:53.640
outflow. And that One arrives as the
140
00:05:53.640 --> 00:05:55.600
accretion rate falls through a specific
141
00:05:55.600 --> 00:05:58.280
value, about 2% of the Eddington
142
00:05:58.280 --> 00:05:58.640
limit.
143
00:05:58.640 --> 00:06:01.440
Avery: 2%. And that number is
144
00:06:01.440 --> 00:06:02.080
familiar.
145
00:06:02.480 --> 00:06:05.000
Anna: That number is the same critical accretion
146
00:06:05.000 --> 00:06:07.440
rate at which stellar mass black holes in
147
00:06:07.440 --> 00:06:09.520
binaries make their state transitions.
148
00:06:10.240 --> 00:06:12.720
The same value we've measured over and over
149
00:06:12.720 --> 00:06:15.200
in objects millions of times smaller.
150
00:06:15.440 --> 00:06:17.480
Goodwin and Mummery are arguing that the
151
00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:20.400
coupling between how a black hole feeds and
152
00:06:20.400 --> 00:06:23.080
how it throws material back out is scale
153
00:06:23.080 --> 00:06:25.040
invariant, that it doesn't care
154
00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:27.960
Avery: about mass at all across roughly seven
155
00:06:28.120 --> 00:06:30.920
orders of magnitude, which, if it
156
00:06:30.920 --> 00:06:31.480
holds,
157
00:06:31.560 --> 00:06:34.240
Anna: is a genuinely unifying statement about a
158
00:06:34.240 --> 00:06:36.440
class of object we usually treat as two
159
00:06:36.440 --> 00:06:37.640
separate populations.
160
00:06:38.040 --> 00:06:40.440
Avery: And it also clears up a mess, doesn't it?
161
00:06:40.760 --> 00:06:43.320
Because radio astronomers have had an awkward
162
00:06:43.320 --> 00:06:45.320
problem with these events for a while,
163
00:06:45.940 --> 00:06:48.940
Anna: a very awkward one. Some tidal disruption
164
00:06:48.940 --> 00:06:50.980
events produce a radio flare almost
165
00:06:50.980 --> 00:06:53.620
immediately. Some produce one much later,
166
00:06:53.780 --> 00:06:56.380
out of nowhere, sometimes years after
167
00:06:56.380 --> 00:06:58.980
everyone has stopped paying attention. Some
168
00:06:58.980 --> 00:07:01.539
appear to produce nothing at all that looked
169
00:07:01.539 --> 00:07:04.260
like three different phenomena or worse, like
170
00:07:04.260 --> 00:07:04.660
noise.
171
00:07:05.060 --> 00:07:07.340
Avery: And the two outflow picture makes it
172
00:07:07.340 --> 00:07:10.340
Anna: one phenomenon, one phenomenon with two
173
00:07:10.340 --> 00:07:12.980
stages, where whether you see either of them
174
00:07:12.980 --> 00:07:15.650
depends on when you happen to be looking and
175
00:07:15.650 --> 00:07:18.290
how the accretion rate was falling. The
176
00:07:18.290 --> 00:07:20.610
prompt and delayed outflows stop being a
177
00:07:20.610 --> 00:07:22.650
puzzle and start being a prediction.
178
00:07:23.050 --> 00:07:25.450
Avery: And Goodwin makes a very practical point
179
00:07:25.450 --> 00:07:26.170
about that.
180
00:07:26.490 --> 00:07:28.530
Anna: She does, and it's my favourite part of the
181
00:07:28.530 --> 00:07:30.570
release. Her line is quote,
182
00:07:31.050 --> 00:07:34.010
radio telescopes are incredibly powerful, but
183
00:07:34.010 --> 00:07:36.490
knowing when to look is just as important as
184
00:07:36.490 --> 00:07:39.050
knowing where to look. And she goes on,
185
00:07:39.370 --> 00:07:41.570
if we can anticipate when a black hole is
186
00:07:41.570 --> 00:07:43.890
more likely to launch a jet, we can run
187
00:07:43.890 --> 00:07:46.530
better targeted campaigns, waste fewer
188
00:07:46.530 --> 00:07:48.530
observations and improve our chances of
189
00:07:48.530 --> 00:07:50.810
catching these rare events. At the moment,
190
00:07:50.810 --> 00:07:52.610
they matter most, which
191
00:07:52.610 --> 00:07:54.690
Avery: is not a small thing when you're competing
192
00:07:54.690 --> 00:07:56.810
for time on the world's big dishes.
193
00:07:57.210 --> 00:07:59.410
Anna: It's the difference between a survey and a
194
00:07:59.410 --> 00:08:02.050
stakeout. And it matters enormously for
195
00:08:02.050 --> 00:08:04.450
what's coming, because the Vera Rubin
196
00:08:04.450 --> 00:08:06.770
Observatory is about to start finding tidal
197
00:08:06.770 --> 00:08:09.490
disruption events in numbers we've never had
198
00:08:09.490 --> 00:08:12.210
before. If you can look at the optical light
199
00:08:12.210 --> 00:08:14.330
curve and predict roughly when the radio
200
00:08:14.330 --> 00:08:16.970
outflow should arrive, you can have the radio
201
00:08:16.970 --> 00:08:18.010
telescopes ready.
202
00:08:18.490 --> 00:08:21.290
Avery: Without that, you're guessing, and this
203
00:08:21.290 --> 00:08:23.050
one is properly ours.
204
00:08:23.450 --> 00:08:26.090
Anna: It is led from Curtin University in
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Perth through icrar, and the underlying data
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set is the product of years of multi
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wavelength campaigns, drawing on telescopes
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in Australia, the United States, India,
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South Africa and in space. This is
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not a single instrument result. It's a
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decade of patient radio follow up on rare
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events assembled into One
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Avery: picture, and it lands in the same week that
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we're talking about the Square Kilometre
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Array's southern half taking shape out in
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Western Australia, which is precisely the
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Anna: instrument you'd want pointed at the next
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one.
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Avery: Two things to keep straight, though.
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Anna: Yes. The first is that this is a
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threshold, not a switch. Saying
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black holes launch outflows at around
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2% of Eddington is a statement
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about where the transition sits, not a
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promise that every black hole crossing that
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line will produce a jet you can detect.
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Whether you actually see one depends on the
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environment, the geometry, the distance
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and the luck of having a telescope pointed in
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the right direction.
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Avery: And the second?
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Anna: The second is about timing. And we want to be
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straight with you. This was published in
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Nature Astronomy yesterday. That's real. And
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the peer review is done. But the preprint
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went up on the archive back in February. So
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while this is newly published, it is not
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newly written. And if it feels vaguely
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familiar to anyone who follows the preprint
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servers closely, that's why.
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Avery: Which is a pattern we flagged before on this
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show.
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Anna: It is, and we'll keep flagging it. The
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science is no less good for having waited
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seven months in review. But published
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this week and discovered this week are
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different claims, and we try very hard not to
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blur them.
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Avery: Longtime listeners will hear some threads
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here, too. We covered a wandering black hole
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revealed by a tidal disruption event back in
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episode 153. And a, uh, quasar
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driving turbulence across 300,000 light
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years in 154.
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Anna: And the partial disruptions that fade and
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come back in episode 185.
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This result is the framework those individual
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objects have been waiting for.
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Avery: Now on to storey two. That phrase.
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Super Eddington came up in the lead, and
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it's about to come up again. Because the
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second storey this week is also about a black
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hole eating faster than it should be able to
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just 11 billion years earlier.
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Anna: The little red dots.
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Avery: The little red dots. And if you've been with
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us a while, you'll know these have been one
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of the most irritating things the James Webb
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Space Telescope has found. Extremely
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compact, extremely red,
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extremely numerous in the early universe.
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They show the broad hydrogen emission lines
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you'd expect from gas whipping around a black
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hole. But there are far too many of them.
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And the black holes implied are far too heavy
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for the galaxies they sit in.
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Anna: Which has produced a small industry of
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explanations.
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Avery: Some of them fairly exotic, some very
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exotic. So here's what's new.
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A team led by Sun Myun Chan, with
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Shingo Hirano Tomoaki ishiyama
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Sukjoon Chang and Volker Springle,
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published in Nature on 16 September,
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ran fully cosmological radiation
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hydrodynamic simulations of a dense
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protocluster region in the early universe
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using Japan's Atarui UH3
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supercomputer.
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Anna: And crucially, without putting the answer in
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by hand.
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Avery: That's the point. They didn't seed the
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simulation with the black holes they wanted.
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They let the physics run. And what happens
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is in that intensely over dense environment,
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the the giant gas clouds are bathed in so
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much ultraviolet radiation that they can't
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fragment into ordinary stars. Normally
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a big cloud breaks up into lots of little
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stellar nurseries. Here it can't.
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So instead the whole thing collapses as one
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object, a primordial supermassive star,
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which then promptly collapses into a black
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hole, a heavy seed. A
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heavy seed of around a million solar
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masses, which is roughly 10 times heavier
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than theory typically expects. And then those
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seeds develop dense optically thick discs,
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so thick that light bounces around inside
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them, scattering off free electrons on the
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way out. And that electron scattering
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smears the hydrogen emission into exactly the
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broad lines we see in little red dots.
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Anna: So the broad lines aren't necessarily telling
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you the gas is moving as fast as you'd
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assumed.
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Avery: That's the elegant bit. Part of the width is
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scattering, not velocity. And then
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sustained super Eddington accretion drives
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the thing up to around 30 million solar
321
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masses by a redshift of 8, which puts
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it right in the population of overmassive
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quasars. Webb keeps finding.
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Anna: So it's one continuous storey seed
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dot quasar and eventually the
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supermassive black holes sitting in galaxies
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today.
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Avery: One storey, with the little red dot phase
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being short and dust shrouded. A, uh, stage
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rather than a species. And the timing is
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rather lovely because Nature Astronomy
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published a whole focus issue on little red
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dots the same week, including a review
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by Hannah Hubler on massive black holes
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in the first billion years. M the field is
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consolidating and this happens to be the week
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it did it.
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Anna: One caution, though, and it's the same one we
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gave for the black hole feedback work last
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month.
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Avery: Go on.
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Anna: This is a simulation that reproduces the
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observations. That's a demonstration that the
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physics is sufficient. You don't need
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anything exotic to get little red dots. It is
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not, on its own proof that this is what
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actually happened. Other routes may also
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produce them. What would settle it is a
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direct measurement of one of these objects
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that distinguishes scattering broadened lines
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from genuinely fast
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Avery: gas, which is exactly the Kind of thing
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Webb could do.
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Anna: Right, next up, let's come all the way back,
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about 6,000 kilometres, in fact, to the
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middle of the Earth, which
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Avery: is not where you think it is.
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Anna: It really isn't. And this is one of those
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facts that sounds like a trick until you sit
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with it. There are two different centres of
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the Earth. There's the centre of figure, the
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geometric middle of the solid planet surface,
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which is essentially fixed. And there's the
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centre of mass, the balance point of
365
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everything the planet is made of.
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Avery: And the planet is partly made of water and
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air, which move constantly.
368
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Anna: Snow falls across Siberia and Canada.
369
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The Apple basin floods. The monsoon
370
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arrives over Southeast Asia. Every one of
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those shifts an enormous amount of mass from
372
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one part of the planet to another, and the
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balance point moves to follow it. So the
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centre of mass and the centre of figure drift
375
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apart and back together over the course of a
376
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year.
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Avery: And we care because.
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Anna: Because the centre of mass is what satellites
379
00:15:30.700 --> 00:15:33.580
orbit. It's the origin of the reference frame
380
00:15:33.580 --> 00:15:36.220
that underpins satellite navigation and
381
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every precise elevation measurement on the
382
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planet. If you're wrong about where it is,
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you're wrong about where everything else is.
384
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Avery: So how big is the wobble?
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Anna: That's the news. The traditional figure has
386
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been around 11 millimetres. A team led
387
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by Donald Argus at NASA's Jet Propulsion
388
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Laboratory now puts it at roughly four to
389
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five and a half, about half what we thought.
390
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Published in Geophysical Journal
391
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International with the JPL release on
392
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Tuesday.
393
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Avery: Half is a big, big correction for something
394
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people have been measuring for decades.
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Anna: It is. And here's how uncertain it's been.
396
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The last two international estimates, one
397
00:16:14.960 --> 00:16:17.520
from 2017 and one from 2023,
398
00:16:18.000 --> 00:16:20.280
disagree with each other by about 7
399
00:16:20.280 --> 00:16:22.840
millimetres, which is almost as large as the
400
00:16:22.840 --> 00:16:24.560
entire motion they're trying to measure.
401
00:16:24.640 --> 00:16:27.160
Avery: So the error bar was the same size as the
402
00:16:27.160 --> 00:16:27.600
signal.
403
00:16:27.680 --> 00:16:30.560
Anna: Essentially, Argus's own line
404
00:16:30.560 --> 00:16:32.880
is that the movement now looks like about
405
00:16:32.960 --> 00:16:35.360
half of of what we believed eight years ago,
406
00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:38.680
and that the mass of water and air sloshing
407
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between the hemispheres is smaller than we
408
00:16:41.640 --> 00:16:42.000
thought.
409
00:16:42.400 --> 00:16:44.440
Avery: And where does the movement actually come
410
00:16:44.440 --> 00:16:44.720
from?
411
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Anna: Three main ocean,
412
00:16:47.520 --> 00:16:49.600
atmosphere and land water.
413
00:16:50.400 --> 00:16:53.360
In March, snow sitting across Eurasia and
414
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North America pulls the centre of mass about
415
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3 millimetres toward the northern Pole.
416
00:16:59.530 --> 00:17:02.250
Then, in April, the Apple hits its annual
417
00:17:02.250 --> 00:17:04.890
water maximum, around 2,400
418
00:17:04.890 --> 00:17:07.210
gigatons, and tugs it roughly
419
00:17:07.210 --> 00:17:09.690
2.2 millimetres towards south America.
420
00:17:10.090 --> 00:17:11.970
Later in the year, monsoon water across
421
00:17:11.970 --> 00:17:14.810
Southeast Asia peaks at around 600 gigatons
422
00:17:14.890 --> 00:17:16.570
and pulls in its own direction.
423
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Avery: None of which wins.
424
00:17:17.850 --> 00:17:20.850
Anna: None of which wins they combine into an
425
00:17:20.850 --> 00:17:23.730
annual oscillation that never settles. And
426
00:17:23.730 --> 00:17:25.730
my favourite complication in the whole study
427
00:17:25.730 --> 00:17:28.699
is this. When you pile trillions of tonnes of
428
00:17:28.699 --> 00:17:31.059
water onto a continent, the crust
429
00:17:31.059 --> 00:17:33.979
flexes under the load, which means the ground
430
00:17:33.979 --> 00:17:36.019
stations you're using to measure the movement
431
00:17:36.019 --> 00:17:37.219
are themselves moving.
432
00:17:37.379 --> 00:17:39.739
Avery: You have to subtract the observatory from the
433
00:17:39.739 --> 00:17:41.539
observation you do.
434
00:17:41.939 --> 00:17:44.379
Anna: They handled it by combining laser ranging to
435
00:17:44.379 --> 00:17:47.059
satellites, and that's the LAGEOS technique,
436
00:17:47.139 --> 00:17:49.259
which Australia contributes to from the Matt
437
00:17:49.259 --> 00:17:51.899
Stromlo station outside Canberra with
438
00:17:51.899 --> 00:17:54.520
GPS and with the Grace Follow On Gravity
439
00:17:54.520 --> 00:17:56.640
mission, then modelling the crustal
440
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deformation out and
441
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Avery: the practical end, um, of it.
442
00:17:59.520 --> 00:18:02.200
Anna: Felix Landerer, one of the CO authors, put it
443
00:18:02.200 --> 00:18:04.280
well. He said that while these movements
444
00:18:04.280 --> 00:18:07.200
might appear tiny, our modern world relies on
445
00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:10.080
extremely accurate positioning and that by
446
00:18:10.080 --> 00:18:11.880
understanding what changes the reference
447
00:18:11.880 --> 00:18:14.040
system, we can build better reference
448
00:18:14.040 --> 00:18:16.400
systems. He lists the beneficiaries as
449
00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:18.640
everything from global shipping logistics to
450
00:18:18.640 --> 00:18:20.580
precision agriculture, which
451
00:18:20.580 --> 00:18:23.540
Avery: is a long way from black holes. And I rather
452
00:18:23.540 --> 00:18:24.900
like that about this job.
453
00:18:25.460 --> 00:18:26.100
Anna: Me too.
454
00:18:26.740 --> 00:18:29.380
Avery: Last storey, and it's a small, clever one.
455
00:18:30.020 --> 00:18:32.820
20 light years away, there's an object called
456
00:18:32.820 --> 00:18:35.540
Simp M0136.
457
00:18:36.100 --> 00:18:38.940
It's a brown dwarf, too heavy to be a, uh,
458
00:18:39.060 --> 00:18:42.060
planet in the ordinary sense, too light to
459
00:18:42.060 --> 00:18:44.860
have ever ignited hydrogen fusion and become
460
00:18:44.860 --> 00:18:47.490
a star. It sits right on the
461
00:18:47.490 --> 00:18:50.410
boundary and it has no host star at
462
00:18:50.410 --> 00:18:53.290
all. It's just drifting, which makes
463
00:18:53.290 --> 00:18:55.170
it unusually easy to study,
464
00:18:55.810 --> 00:18:58.690
enormously easier. Normally, if
465
00:18:58.690 --> 00:19:00.810
you want to look at a giant planet's
466
00:19:00.810 --> 00:19:03.410
atmosphere, you're fighting the glare of the
467
00:19:03.410 --> 00:19:06.290
star next to it. Here, there's no star.
468
00:19:06.610 --> 00:19:09.250
You just point and look. Which is why
469
00:19:09.250 --> 00:19:11.890
Simp0136
470
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has become the reference object for what
471
00:19:14.330 --> 00:19:17.130
directly imaged giant planets are probably
472
00:19:17.130 --> 00:19:17.490
like.
473
00:19:18.030 --> 00:19:18.830
Anna: And it varies.
474
00:19:19.390 --> 00:19:21.870
Avery: It spins once every 2 hours and
475
00:19:21.870 --> 00:19:24.830
25 minutes, and as it spins, its
476
00:19:24.830 --> 00:19:27.710
brightness changes by a few percent different
477
00:19:27.710 --> 00:19:30.470
amounts at different wavelengths. Which tells
478
00:19:30.470 --> 00:19:33.390
you there's weather, clouds, hotspots,
479
00:19:33.470 --> 00:19:36.030
chemistry, all of it changing as different
480
00:19:36.030 --> 00:19:39.030
faces rotate into view. The trouble has
481
00:19:39.030 --> 00:19:40.670
been that it's looked fantastically
482
00:19:40.670 --> 00:19:43.070
complicated. Multiple mechanisms,
483
00:19:43.150 --> 00:19:45.390
multiple layers, all tangled together.
484
00:19:46.180 --> 00:19:47.380
Anna: So what did they do differently?
485
00:19:47.780 --> 00:19:50.500
Avery: They stopped assuming. Merle Schrader,
486
00:19:50.660 --> 00:19:53.220
a PhD candidate at Trinity College
487
00:19:53.220 --> 00:19:55.940
Dublin with colleagues there and elsewhere,
488
00:19:56.180 --> 00:19:58.300
took one full rotation of Webb
489
00:19:58.300 --> 00:20:01.100
spectroscopy and ran principal Component
490
00:20:01.100 --> 00:20:03.860
Analysis on it, which is a technique for
491
00:20:03.860 --> 00:20:06.660
asking a data set the blunt question, how
492
00:20:06.660 --> 00:20:09.100
many independent things are actually changing
493
00:20:09.100 --> 00:20:11.380
here? Not, does my model fit,
494
00:20:11.930 --> 00:20:14.330
Just how many knobs are being turned?
495
00:20:14.730 --> 00:20:17.290
Anna: And the answer was two.
496
00:20:17.850 --> 00:20:20.330
Avery: Two components are enough to push what's left
497
00:20:20.330 --> 00:20:22.250
over down to the Noise floor of the
498
00:20:22.250 --> 00:20:25.010
instrument. Which means that within what Webb
499
00:20:25.010 --> 00:20:27.530
can detect, there is nothing else going on.
500
00:20:28.010 --> 00:20:29.050
Anna: And what are the two?
501
00:20:29.530 --> 00:20:32.530
Avery: The first is broadband. It moves the whole
502
00:20:32.530 --> 00:20:35.530
spectrum together and that's temperature. The
503
00:20:35.530 --> 00:20:38.380
second is chromatic wavelength dependent
504
00:20:38.380 --> 00:20:40.900
and that traces the vertical structure of the
505
00:20:40.900 --> 00:20:43.860
clouds, how high and how thick they are.
506
00:20:44.180 --> 00:20:46.940
And between them, those two resolve into
507
00:20:46.940 --> 00:20:49.820
three recurring patches that are
508
00:20:49.820 --> 00:20:52.380
hotter with thinner cloud, patches that are
509
00:20:52.380 --> 00:20:54.980
cooler with thick vertically extended cloud
510
00:20:55.300 --> 00:20:57.700
and transitional regions between the two.
511
00:20:58.100 --> 00:20:59.940
Anna: So it looks chaotic and it's actually
512
00:20:59.940 --> 00:21:00.660
organised.
513
00:21:00.900 --> 00:21:03.320
Avery: Low dimensional is the term. Uh, a
514
00:21:03.320 --> 00:21:05.880
famously messy atmosphere turns out to be
515
00:21:05.880 --> 00:21:08.640
running on two dials. And the team then
516
00:21:08.640 --> 00:21:11.280
went further and projected model atmospheres
517
00:21:11.280 --> 00:21:14.040
into the same mathematical space and
518
00:21:14.040 --> 00:21:16.600
found the models largely occupy the same
519
00:21:16.600 --> 00:21:19.520
territory, which is a decent sign the models
520
00:21:19.520 --> 00:21:21.880
are capturing the right physics rather than
521
00:21:21.880 --> 00:21:23.280
accidentally agreeing.
522
00:21:23.920 --> 00:21:26.240
Anna: Two notes of care on this one, please.
523
00:21:26.800 --> 00:21:28.960
The first is that some of the coverage has
524
00:21:28.960 --> 00:21:31.240
described these patterns as persisting over
525
00:21:31.240 --> 00:21:34.150
more than a dozen rotations. The paper's
526
00:21:34.150 --> 00:21:37.110
core analysis is one rotation. That's a
527
00:21:37.110 --> 00:21:39.390
real and interesting result. But a second
528
00:21:39.390 --> 00:21:42.070
high quality rotation is precisely the test
529
00:21:42.070 --> 00:21:44.590
that would confirm the pattern's hold. So
530
00:21:44.590 --> 00:21:46.670
we'll describe it as the test rather than the
531
00:21:46.670 --> 00:21:47.150
finding.
532
00:21:47.630 --> 00:21:49.870
Avery: And the second is our usual one.
533
00:21:50.190 --> 00:21:52.830
Anna: The preprint went up in late July, so there's
534
00:21:52.830 --> 00:21:54.670
about a seven week gap before the journal
535
00:21:54.670 --> 00:21:56.670
version and the Trinity release this week.
536
00:21:57.230 --> 00:21:59.310
Shorter than yesterday's, but worth saying.
537
00:22:00.040 --> 00:22:02.680
Avery: And one lovely human detail to finish.
538
00:22:03.320 --> 00:22:06.240
Simp 0136 is
539
00:22:06.240 --> 00:22:09.040
20 light years away. The web data
540
00:22:09.040 --> 00:22:11.160
Schrader analysed was gathered in
541
00:22:11.160 --> 00:22:13.880
2023, so the light she was working
542
00:22:13.880 --> 00:22:16.360
with left that object in the year she was
543
00:22:16.360 --> 00:22:16.760
born.
544
00:22:17.400 --> 00:22:18.920
Anna: That's a very good reason to go into
545
00:22:18.920 --> 00:22:19.640
astronomy.
546
00:22:20.200 --> 00:22:22.680
Avery: Now we have one more quick one before
547
00:22:22.680 --> 00:22:23.480
Skywatch.
548
00:22:24.040 --> 00:22:27.040
Anna: We do indeed. The sun has gone very quiet
549
00:22:27.040 --> 00:22:27.640
indeed.
550
00:22:28.040 --> 00:22:28.840
Avery: How quiet?
551
00:22:29.320 --> 00:22:32.320
Anna: Very nearly blank. As of yesterday, there was
552
00:22:32.320 --> 00:22:34.800
exactly one numbered active region left on
553
00:22:34.800 --> 00:22:35.960
the Earth facing side,
554
00:22:36.280 --> 00:22:39.040
AR4528. And it's
555
00:22:39.040 --> 00:22:42.040
rotating out of view as we speak. If nothing
556
00:22:42.040 --> 00:22:44.480
new emerges behind it, we're about to get the
557
00:22:44.480 --> 00:22:47.280
Sun's first spotless day since the 24th of
558
00:22:47.280 --> 00:22:48.360
February this year.
559
00:22:48.760 --> 00:22:50.920
Avery: And February was itself notable.
560
00:22:51.480 --> 00:22:53.080
Anna: February ended a streak of
561
00:22:53.080 --> 00:22:56.040
1,335 consecutive
562
00:22:56.040 --> 00:22:59.040
days, with at least one sunspot going all
563
00:22:59.040 --> 00:23:01.080
the way back to June 2022.
564
00:23:01.800 --> 00:23:04.354
Solar cycle 25 peaked in October
565
00:23:04.486 --> 00:23:07.279
2024. And this is what the downhill side
566
00:23:07.279 --> 00:23:09.920
looks like for scale. The last
567
00:23:09.920 --> 00:23:12.360
solar minimum between 2018 and
568
00:23:12.360 --> 00:23:15.160
2020 delivered something like 700
569
00:23:15.240 --> 00:23:16.200
spotless days.
570
00:23:16.850 --> 00:23:19.410
Avery: And minimum itself is still Some way
571
00:23:19.410 --> 00:23:22.290
Anna: off, not expected before about 2030.
572
00:23:22.850 --> 00:23:25.290
But here's the part worth holding onto. And
573
00:23:25.290 --> 00:23:28.250
it connects two storeys we've run recently. A
574
00:23:28.250 --> 00:23:31.010
quiet sun is not a harmless sun. It's a
575
00:23:31.010 --> 00:23:33.450
differently hazardous one. We Talked in
576
00:23:33.450 --> 00:23:36.050
episode 192 about the energy a, uh, big
577
00:23:36.050 --> 00:23:38.730
active region can store for a superflare, and
578
00:23:38.730 --> 00:23:41.330
in 193 about cosmic radiation at
579
00:23:41.330 --> 00:23:44.180
aviation altitudes. And that second one
580
00:23:44.180 --> 00:23:46.980
runs the opposite way. When the sun is quiet,
581
00:23:47.300 --> 00:23:49.700
its magnetic field does less to shield the
582
00:23:49.700 --> 00:23:52.700
inner solar system, so galactic cosmic rays
583
00:23:52.700 --> 00:23:55.540
get through more easily. Radiation dose
584
00:23:55.540 --> 00:23:58.499
at cruising altitude runs 40 to 60% higher
585
00:23:58.499 --> 00:24:00.580
at solar minimum than at maximum.
586
00:24:01.140 --> 00:24:03.060
Avery: Same dial, opposite end.
587
00:24:03.540 --> 00:24:05.940
Anna: Fewer auroras, more cosmic rays.
588
00:24:06.100 --> 00:24:08.580
Avery: And that's a very good excuse to talk about
589
00:24:08.580 --> 00:24:11.510
the sky, because tonight there is something
590
00:24:11.590 --> 00:24:14.430
genuinely worth walking outside for. And
591
00:24:14.430 --> 00:24:16.070
it works from everywhere.
592
00:24:16.790 --> 00:24:17.430
Anna: Venus.
593
00:24:18.390 --> 00:24:20.630
Avery: Venus at, uh, greatest brilliancy.
594
00:24:20.870 --> 00:24:23.110
Tonight, the 18th of September,
595
00:24:23.430 --> 00:24:25.830
Venus reaches its peak brightness for this
596
00:24:25.830 --> 00:24:28.710
entire evening. Apparition magnitude M
597
00:24:29.644 --> 00:24:32.430
4.8. There is nothing else in the night
598
00:24:32.430 --> 00:24:34.710
sky that comes close except the Moon.
599
00:24:35.200 --> 00:24:37.080
Anna: And the reason it peaks tonight rather than
600
00:24:37.080 --> 00:24:39.440
when Venus is full is genuinely
601
00:24:39.440 --> 00:24:40.400
counterintuitive.
602
00:24:40.960 --> 00:24:43.400
Avery: It's the best bit of physics in the whole
603
00:24:43.400 --> 00:24:46.240
segment. Venus is not full tonight.
604
00:24:46.240 --> 00:24:49.200
It's a Crescent, only about 26%
605
00:24:49.200 --> 00:24:52.120
lit. But because it's swinging in closer
606
00:24:52.120 --> 00:24:54.720
to us, that crescent has swollen to
607
00:24:54.720 --> 00:24:56.720
nearly 40 arcseconds across.
608
00:24:57.440 --> 00:25:00.080
Brightness is lit fraction multiplied by
609
00:25:00.080 --> 00:25:02.870
apparent size. And right now, the disc is
610
00:25:02.870 --> 00:25:05.310
growing faster than the illuminated fraction
611
00:25:05.310 --> 00:25:06.190
is shrinking.
612
00:25:06.590 --> 00:25:08.910
Anna: A big, thin crescent beats a small
613
00:25:09.070 --> 00:25:11.310
Avery: full disc every time.
614
00:25:11.790 --> 00:25:14.550
And if you have binoculars, hold them steady
615
00:25:14.550 --> 00:25:16.990
and you'll actually see the crescent shape.
616
00:25:17.550 --> 00:25:20.030
At 40 arcseconds, it's within reach,
617
00:25:20.510 --> 00:25:22.710
which surprises people, because we don't
618
00:25:22.710 --> 00:25:25.070
think of Venus as something you can resolve.
619
00:25:25.470 --> 00:25:27.190
Anna: And if you see a different date quoted
620
00:25:27.190 --> 00:25:29.560
somewhere, some listings say the 22nd.
621
00:25:30.040 --> 00:25:32.800
Both are defensible. The peak is very
622
00:25:32.800 --> 00:25:35.480
flat. Between tonight and the 22nd,
623
00:25:35.480 --> 00:25:37.480
the lit fraction drops from about
624
00:25:37.560 --> 00:25:40.480
26% to 23, while
625
00:25:40.480 --> 00:25:43.240
the disc grows from roughly 40 arc seconds
626
00:25:43.240 --> 00:25:46.000
to 42. And those two changes
627
00:25:46.000 --> 00:25:48.440
very nearly cancel. So you're not going to
628
00:25:48.440 --> 00:25:50.120
miss it by going out on the wrong night.
629
00:25:50.760 --> 00:25:53.440
Avery: Now, how well you do tonight depends
630
00:25:53.440 --> 00:25:55.800
enormously on where you're standing and. And
631
00:25:55.800 --> 00:25:57.320
the gap is dramatic.
632
00:25:57.880 --> 00:26:00.680
Anna: From Sydney, this is a spectacle. Sunset is
633
00:26:00.680 --> 00:26:03.480
at quarter to six, and at that moment, Venus
634
00:26:03.480 --> 00:26:06.120
is 39 degrees above the western horizon.
635
00:26:06.440 --> 00:26:08.400
That's more than a third of the way up the
636
00:26:08.400 --> 00:26:11.200
sky. It doesn't set until just before 9 o',
637
00:26:11.200 --> 00:26:14.000
clock, which gives you 3 hours and 13 minutes
638
00:26:14.000 --> 00:26:16.920
of Venus after sunset. You do not need
639
00:26:16.920 --> 00:26:19.480
a clear horizon. You do not need to hurry.
640
00:26:19.960 --> 00:26:22.320
Avery: And from the Northern Hemisphere, it's a
641
00:26:22.320 --> 00:26:25.210
different evening entirely. From Los
642
00:26:25.210 --> 00:26:27.930
Angeles, sunset is at 10 to 7
643
00:26:27.930 --> 00:26:30.410
and Venus is 14 degrees up.
644
00:26:30.650 --> 00:26:33.610
It sets an hour and 19 minutes after the
645
00:26:33.610 --> 00:26:36.490
sun. From New York, 10 degrees up
646
00:26:36.730 --> 00:26:39.290
one hour and three minutes. From
647
00:26:39.290 --> 00:26:42.050
London, three and a half degrees at sunset
648
00:26:42.050 --> 00:26:44.170
and gone 28 minutes later.
649
00:26:44.570 --> 00:26:47.050
Anna: Which is not Venus being fainter. It's
650
00:26:47.050 --> 00:26:49.170
exactly as bright everywhere. It's the
651
00:26:49.170 --> 00:26:49.770
geometry.
652
00:26:50.390 --> 00:26:53.190
Avery: It's the tilt of the ecliptic. At this
653
00:26:53.190 --> 00:26:55.270
time of year, the plane of the solar system
654
00:26:55.350 --> 00:26:57.950
stands almost vertically out of the western
655
00:26:57.950 --> 00:27:00.470
horizon at dusk from the Southern Hemisphere.
656
00:27:00.950 --> 00:27:03.630
So anything on that plane climbs steeply and
657
00:27:03.630 --> 00:27:06.630
takes a long time to set. From the Northern
658
00:27:06.630 --> 00:27:09.390
Hemisphere in September, that same plane
659
00:27:09.390 --> 00:27:12.230
lies down almost flat against the horizon,
660
00:27:12.310 --> 00:27:15.070
and everything on it skims sideways and
661
00:27:15.070 --> 00:27:15.910
sets quickly.
662
00:27:15.910 --> 00:27:18.600
Anna: So northern listeners, here's the practical
663
00:27:18.600 --> 00:27:21.400
version. Find a spot with a genuinely clear,
664
00:27:21.720 --> 00:27:24.520
flat western horizon. No trees,
665
00:27:24.760 --> 00:27:27.560
no buildings. Start looking 20 minutes after
666
00:27:27.560 --> 00:27:30.120
sunset and don't leave it much past 45.
667
00:27:30.440 --> 00:27:32.280
It'll be the brightest thing in that part of
668
00:27:32.280 --> 00:27:34.760
the sky by an enormous margin. So you won't
669
00:27:34.760 --> 00:27:36.360
be in any doubt once you've got it.
670
00:27:36.600 --> 00:27:39.440
Avery: And a bonus for the South, Mercury is
671
00:27:39.440 --> 00:27:42.160
up there, too. From Sydney, Mercury
672
00:27:42.160 --> 00:27:44.720
is 16 degrees above the horizon at
673
00:27:44.720 --> 00:27:47.570
sunset and and doesn't set for an hour and
674
00:27:47.570 --> 00:27:50.170
20 minutes, which for Mercury is a
675
00:27:50.170 --> 00:27:52.930
comfortable viewing window. From Los Angeles,
676
00:27:52.930 --> 00:27:55.730
it's 9 degrees and 43 minutes.
677
00:27:56.050 --> 00:27:58.970
From London, 4 degrees and 26
678
00:27:58.970 --> 00:28:01.970
minutes. That one really is a southern target
679
00:28:01.970 --> 00:28:02.610
this week.
680
00:28:03.010 --> 00:28:05.170
Anna: And then there's the Moon, which is doing
681
00:28:05.170 --> 00:28:06.770
something rather precise tonight.
682
00:28:07.170 --> 00:28:10.050
Avery: First quarter, and it's exact. The Moon
683
00:28:10.050 --> 00:28:12.610
reaches first quarter at 2043
684
00:28:12.850 --> 00:28:15.670
Universal Time tonight. That's quarter to
685
00:28:15.670 --> 00:28:18.510
5 on Friday afternoon in New York, quarter
686
00:28:18.510 --> 00:28:21.390
to 2 in Los Angeles, quarter to 10
687
00:28:21.390 --> 00:28:23.990
on Friday evening in London, and for
688
00:28:23.990 --> 00:28:26.550
Australia, 20 to 7 on Saturday
689
00:28:26.710 --> 00:28:27.110
morning.
690
00:28:27.510 --> 00:28:29.790
Anna: And from Sydney tonight, the Moon is very
691
00:28:29.790 --> 00:28:32.670
nearly overhead, 82 degrees up at
692
00:28:32.670 --> 00:28:34.670
sunset, which is close enough to straight up
693
00:28:34.670 --> 00:28:36.310
that you'll find yourself leaning back to
694
00:28:36.310 --> 00:28:36.870
look at it.
695
00:28:37.110 --> 00:28:39.190
Avery: Which matters, because tomorrow night,
696
00:28:39.430 --> 00:28:41.670
Saturday the 19th, is international.
697
00:28:42.070 --> 00:28:43.510
Observe the Moon night.
698
00:28:43.980 --> 00:28:46.140
Anna: And the timing of that is not an accident.
699
00:28:46.460 --> 00:28:48.380
It's deliberately scheduled near first
700
00:28:48.380 --> 00:28:50.660
quarter, because first quarter is when the
701
00:28:50.660 --> 00:28:53.060
Moon is at its most interesting. Through any
702
00:28:53.060 --> 00:28:55.820
optical aid along the terminator,
703
00:28:55.900 --> 00:28:58.700
the line dividing day from night, the sun is
704
00:28:58.700 --> 00:29:01.340
striking the surface at a grazing angle. So
705
00:29:01.340 --> 00:29:03.540
every crater rim and mountain throws a long
706
00:29:03.540 --> 00:29:05.420
shadow across the ground behind it.
707
00:29:05.740 --> 00:29:08.700
Avery: A full moon looks Flat. A half moon
708
00:29:08.700 --> 00:29:09.900
looks three dimensional.
709
00:29:10.570 --> 00:29:12.810
Anna: Completely three dimensional. Run the
710
00:29:12.810 --> 00:29:14.530
terminator with even a small pair of
711
00:29:14.530 --> 00:29:17.170
binoculars and the whole landscape stands up
712
00:29:17.170 --> 00:29:19.650
out of the surface. If you've only ever
713
00:29:19.650 --> 00:29:21.090
looked at a full moon and found it
714
00:29:21.090 --> 00:29:23.370
disappointing, this is the night to try
715
00:29:23.370 --> 00:29:26.169
again. NASA's own event is at the US
716
00:29:26.169 --> 00:29:28.050
Space and Rocket Centre in Huntsville
717
00:29:28.050 --> 00:29:30.290
Alabama. But the whole point is that it's
718
00:29:30.290 --> 00:29:33.290
global. You just need to go outside and
719
00:29:33.290 --> 00:29:35.730
Avery: to balance the ledger. Because the south has
720
00:29:35.730 --> 00:29:37.960
had the better of the evening, the morning
721
00:29:37.960 --> 00:29:40.360
sky belongs decisively to the north.
722
00:29:40.760 --> 00:29:43.760
Anna: It does. Mars and Jupiter are both climbing
723
00:29:43.760 --> 00:29:46.440
in the pre dawn east. And the same ecliptic
724
00:29:46.440 --> 00:29:48.560
geometry that flattened Venus for northern
725
00:29:48.560 --> 00:29:50.800
viewers works the other way around. Before
726
00:29:50.800 --> 00:29:53.720
sunrise at nautical dawn tomorrow morning,
727
00:29:54.120 --> 00:29:57.120
Mars is 48 degrees up from Los Angeles and
728
00:29:57.120 --> 00:30:00.040
46 from New York and 41 from London.
729
00:30:00.360 --> 00:30:02.960
Avery: Avery and from Sydney, 20
730
00:30:02.960 --> 00:30:03.400
degree.
731
00:30:04.090 --> 00:30:06.170
Anna: So that's very much your sky, not ours.
732
00:30:06.650 --> 00:30:09.650
Jupiter is 26 degrees up from Los Angeles and
733
00:30:09.650 --> 00:30:11.250
nine from Sydney and those
734
00:30:11.250 --> 00:30:14.090
Avery: two are closing on each other. They're about
735
00:30:14.090 --> 00:30:16.930
23 degrees apart this morning. By mid
736
00:30:16.930 --> 00:30:19.850
October that's down to 12 and
737
00:30:19.850 --> 00:30:22.450
by the middle of November they'll be a little
738
00:30:22.450 --> 00:30:25.250
over a degree apart, close enough to cover
739
00:30:25.250 --> 00:30:28.130
with a fingertip at arm's length. That's the
740
00:30:28.130 --> 00:30:29.450
one to diarize.
741
00:30:31.040 --> 00:30:33.200
Anna: Saturn meanwhile is up uh, essentially all
742
00:30:33.200 --> 00:30:35.560
night from everywhere. It doesn't set until
743
00:30:35.560 --> 00:30:38.400
nearly 7 in the morning from Sydney and just
744
00:30:38.400 --> 00:30:41.160
before 8 from Los Angeles. And it's building
745
00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:44.040
toward opposition on the 4th of October when
746
00:30:44.040 --> 00:30:46.520
the disc will be about 19 and a half arc
747
00:30:46.520 --> 00:30:49.240
seconds across with the rings roughly 7
748
00:30:49.240 --> 00:30:49.920
degrees open.
749
00:30:51.280 --> 00:30:54.080
Avery: And the equinox next week, which
750
00:30:54.080 --> 00:30:54.360
we'll
751
00:30:54.360 --> 00:30:56.440
Anna: flag carefully because we got this slightly
752
00:30:56.440 --> 00:30:58.800
wrong in an earlier episode and corrected it.
753
00:30:59.490 --> 00:31:01.890
The September equinox is a single instant,
754
00:31:02.050 --> 00:31:04.730
not a day. Five minutes past midnight
755
00:31:04.730 --> 00:31:07.450
Universal Time on the 23rd, that's the
756
00:31:07.450 --> 00:31:10.450
evening of the 22nd across the Americas and
757
00:31:10.450 --> 00:31:13.450
mid morning on the 23rd in Australia. So the
758
00:31:13.450 --> 00:31:15.290
date depends entirely on where you're
759
00:31:15.290 --> 00:31:15.730
standing.
760
00:31:16.450 --> 00:31:18.850
Avery: And one last thing which follows directly
761
00:31:18.850 --> 00:31:21.010
from that quick hit about the blank sun,
762
00:31:21.330 --> 00:31:23.810
because every time we mention sunspots
763
00:31:23.970 --> 00:31:26.370
people quite reasonably want to go and
764
00:31:26.370 --> 00:31:29.120
Anna: look and you can, but
765
00:31:29.120 --> 00:31:32.120
never, ever with unprotected eyes and never
766
00:31:32.120 --> 00:31:34.480
through binoculars or a telescope that isn't
767
00:31:34.480 --> 00:31:37.240
purpose built for it. The only safe way to
768
00:31:37.240 --> 00:31:39.960
look directly at the sun is through filters
769
00:31:39.960 --> 00:31:42.959
certified to the international standard ISO
770
00:31:42.959 --> 00:31:45.880
123122. That's
771
00:31:45.880 --> 00:31:48.480
eclipse glasses or a proper solar filter
772
00:31:48.480 --> 00:31:50.240
fitted over the front of the instrument,
773
00:31:50.640 --> 00:31:53.290
never on the eyepiece end and
774
00:31:53.290 --> 00:31:56.250
Avery: ordinary sunglasses are not solar filters.
775
00:31:56.570 --> 00:31:59.210
Neither is smoked glass, exposed film,
776
00:31:59.370 --> 00:32:02.130
a cd, or stacking several pairs of
777
00:32:02.130 --> 00:32:03.210
sunglasses together.
778
00:32:04.010 --> 00:32:06.370
Anna: None of those are safe. Cheque your eclipse
779
00:32:06.370 --> 00:32:07.650
glasses for the ISO
780
00:32:07.650 --> 00:32:10.330
123122 marking,
781
00:32:10.410 --> 00:32:12.530
and if they're scratched, punctured or you
782
00:32:12.530 --> 00:32:15.330
can't find the marking, don't use them. The
783
00:32:15.330 --> 00:32:17.770
safest option of all, and honestly the best
784
00:32:17.770 --> 00:32:20.080
one for a group, is projection.
785
00:32:20.560 --> 00:32:22.920
Put the sun's image onto a white card and
786
00:32:22.920 --> 00:32:24.800
everybody can look at once without anyone
787
00:32:24.800 --> 00:32:25.440
looking up.
788
00:32:26.160 --> 00:32:28.600
Avery: Although this week there may be nothing to
789
00:32:28.600 --> 00:32:30.400
see, which is rather the point.
790
00:32:31.040 --> 00:32:33.310
Anna: That's Astronomy daily for Friday 18th
791
00:32:33.450 --> 00:32:35.600
September. Everything we've talked about
792
00:32:35.600 --> 00:32:38.200
today, the papers, the DoIs, the full
793
00:32:38.200 --> 00:32:41.120
Skywatch figures for all four cities is in
794
00:32:41.120 --> 00:32:43.400
the show notes and on the website at
795
00:32:43.400 --> 00:32:44.320
astronomydaily
796
00:32:44.560 --> 00:32:47.450
Avery: IO, where you'll also find the full
797
00:32:47.450 --> 00:32:50.290
back catalogue, the daily newsletter and
798
00:32:50.290 --> 00:32:53.290
the contact form. And do use that contact
799
00:32:53.450 --> 00:32:55.810
form. Some of our favourite segments this
800
00:32:55.810 --> 00:32:58.090
year have come from listener questions, and
801
00:32:58.090 --> 00:32:59.850
we read every one of them.
802
00:33:00.410 --> 00:33:03.250
Anna: Go out tonight and look west. Venus will not
803
00:33:03.250 --> 00:33:04.090
be this bright again
804
00:33:04.090 --> 00:33:06.970
Avery: this year, and tomorrow night, look
805
00:33:06.970 --> 00:33:07.690
at the Moon.
806
00:33:08.250 --> 00:33:10.130
Anna: We'll be back on the weekend with this week's
807
00:33:10.130 --> 00:33:12.760
weekend wrap. Until then, clear skies.