The 7 Most Important To Do's Before Winter Sets In!

The seven most important to dues to your home before winter sets in all this and more today on Indys Real Estate Gurus.

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I hope you're having a great weekend. I'm Rick Ripma, your hard work and mortgage guy

and I'm Ian Arnold with Adviors Mortgage Group. Maybe you didn't miss our conversation yesterday was Simon about all the flood insurance is definitely catch that on our podcast on Indys Real Estate Gurus. Yes,

and Indys Real Estate Gurus you can get that on any of the podcast or on our website at HardWorkingMortgageGuys.com That's HardWorkingMortgageGuys.com. And if you know of anyone looking to buy, sell refinance, or just if you just have questions, or they have questions, you know, just contact us. Again, just go to HardWorkingMortgageGuys.com That's HardWorkingMortgageGuys.com.

All right. So Rick, let's get into your what I like to call Rick's perspective. What did you see this week in the news, you know, it

was a big week, really last week. And this week, we had the Feds raise the federal funds rate 75 basis points, which was very, very expected. That's what we, we thought they would do. However, it threw the market in a tizzy because of what they said, basically, and I have some of it written out. So I'm going to read it, which I don't really like to read it. But because I'm not the greatest reader in the world, I think it's my problem. But it's what they sat. And, and, and they they said that when they raise the height that we're going forward, they're going to continue to raise, and they actually raise a projection for the rest of the year from 100 basis points increase in the next through the end of the year to 125 basis points so that we believe what's going to happen. We were expecting November 2 to get a 75 basis points increase. And then we thought in December, maybe to be a quarter because they said 100 total. Now we think they're going to do 50 in December. And that could even change depending on what the news is what comes out. The problem is, is that what when when they came out, and they and they talk about, you know what they're going to do and tell us they're going to you know, they're increasing these this situation, raising raising the federal funds rate even more. It told the markets or at least the way the markets interpreted this is that they don't have a handle on inflation. No, really. And that's scary to the market. Because, again, market the bond market mortgage backs do not like inflation. And so even though the raise and re raising that federal funds rate is the de inflationary it's it's still scared the market. You know, additionally, the the Feds anticipate the core PCE which is, which is our personal consumption numbers, which is basically your your consumer inflation, okay, that's really what it is. They they want. They want that to average about 2%. They used to want it to be 2% or below now they wanted to average 2%, which is one of the mistakes I think they made. You can't you cannot control it anywhere near as well. Or know what to do when you want to average something rather than you want it at a certain level.

Yeah, because you just take an average over time. Yeah. So that doesn't really help you out and

over what time that's the other thing. They didn't say, over over a month over a year, over 10 years, over 1000 years. What do you want it out? You know that so I think that was a big mistake. I thought it was a mistake when they did it. And I think it's proving to be a mistake. But anyway, they went that PCE number inflation to be at four and a half by the end of 2022. That's what they're anticipating. Currently, it's at six 4.6 on the core, and 6.3 on the headline. So it does need to come down a little bit, not a ton. They're not looking for a huge drop. But we think it's going to go up. And in the next the reading that we get from from What month is it September. Okay, we think it's gonna go up or October, I'm sorry. Because the number for that, that that month last year was so low. So we think when that happens, we're actually going to see the inflation go up, not go down, which is what they're saying. So along with that, you know, one of the things that is has been a problem for the REIT market right now is the Feds were purchasing a tremendous amount of mortgage bonds. So when we did mortgages, they were being sold, they they're sold on the market. And they were they were selling a ton of bonds. In fact, to give you an example, the first week of January, the third through the seventh, they bought almost $20 billion and mortgage bonds. Now, that's, that's what artificially kept our rates low as they were buying all these bonds. So they kept our rates low. Do you know how many how, what they're what they're buying right now? 00. Last two weeks, they've bought zero. So the feds are sitting there, you know, looking at it, and they're and they are not doing any bond purchases? That is that is that is part of what has increased our interest rates. So interest rates are up, as everybody knows, you know, and I know, you know, we see it every day. And it's not as it's we don't nobody likes it. So let's just go through that nobody likes the interest rates being higher, right? Are you happy about it?

No, no, I mean, let's be honest, there's a negative, nobody's gonna be happy, right? But it

is what it is. Okay. So if you're looking to purchase a home, the way that you in my opinion, the best way to look at it is when you're financing something right now, look at it as short term financing. Because we believe heavily based on history, when you look back, you look back in the, you know, the 70s, the 80s, the 90s, the 2000s 2012. Every time this happened, rates, and we end up in a recession rates go down. projection from the people that we listened to, they're telling us they think we're going to be in the fours. That's a significant decrease. Yeah. So you financed today. And then you refinance, when the rates go back down. So don't pass up a house that you want to buy, you know, if it all works out, it's affordable, you can do it. Just know, you're gonna pay a little bit more for what I think will be. And you can tell me what you think, I think it's, I think it's at the very best eight months, maybe a little longer than that, and at the longest two years, so I think somewhere between that eight years and eight months and two years, we're gonna see rates come down. Now, eight months, they may not be down to the fours. But I think in that timeframe, we will see rates back in the four Yeah,

I mean, it is going to take that time. I mean, because you got to think we're clearly going against the inflation. And like we said, we just hit high points within the last month into on inflation, well, guess what the inflation isn't going to drop, those numbers don't fall off for a year. And so just like you said, eight months to a year, once those numbers finally start dropping off, and the inflation starts to come down, then you'll definitely start seeing those rates drop. But until then, we're not going to see it. But I agree with you don't, don't lose a good house. Because your payment might be up a little bit higher than what you want. Because guess what, you can always lower your payment later, by just refinancing get a lower interest rate. And at that point in time, who knows, maybe lose PMI your debt to your house ratio changes, then because what is appraised for mean, if it's anywhere? What has been the last few years, you're gonna be up another maybe 1020 30%, then than where you started? So definitely don't don't look at the just interest rate. Again, like I'd say, I don't know you don't normally say this. But interest rate is a very small number that you need to look at when you look at everything. It's going to affect your payment. Yes, but it can change. And I think that's where it throws a lot of people for a loop.

Yeah, that's a piece of the puzzle. Yes, I'll give you an example. So I have a customer, they they bought a house. When we were looking at it, the rates were in the mid sevens. That's where That's where it was. And I told them, let's hold off. I'm watching the market, let's hold off. So we were able to get them arrayed in the mid sixes. And they locked in. We watched it, I talked to him, it looked like it was going to come down. They gave me the okay, if I did that. It came down. I made sure I just text them real quick. They gave me the okay, I went ahead and locked it in. Now today it's up again. But they were able to get that rate. So even though as you're looking at maybe, maybe higher, and it doesn't mean that we can always do that. But we watch it. We watch this every day all day long. If you're working with us, we can we can do the very best we can. There's no guarantees, but we'll do the very best we can to get you the very best rate possible. Now here, they also went you know, they decided to do an arm rather than a fixed rate. Yeah, and the reason is, is because you're only keeping it for a short period of time. Yeah, arms. seemed like the way to go right now. Sometimes they are sometimes they are just with

the higher rates and because it's so flux over the next few, like maybe did 10 year or five year ARM, you're going to it's going to change. Well guess what? Once rates dropped, like we're thinking in two, three years, it's now is it gonna be at one and a half? 2%? I don't think so. But I mean, it could, I just don't think it's gonna drop that low. But if you're right now, it's six and a half, you said you got that person? And it drops down to three and a half. Would you refinance? Yeah, most people are going to refinance that. So at that point in time, maybe then get out of the arm. So it's not an adjusted rate, and then be done with it.

Yeah, it all depends, you know, there is no 100% Perfect loan, and one loan works better for some people than others. Right? Now, it's a great time to look at the arms to see if it makes sense, you have to have enough, in my opinion, you have to have enough spread in the rate. If there's not enough spread, then it's not worth the risk. That's correct. But I do believe as you're saying, I believe that, you know, the rates are going down. So doing one now if it makes sense in the spread and everything else, because sometimes you look it up and they're actually higher than the fixed, then it doesn't make sense, right? You know, you gotta it's gotta make it's gotta make sense. So we just look at that. And on your, on your appreciation, you know, the other. One of the other pieces of the puzzle, the one I always talked about, as a piece of the puzzle, there's a bunch of pieces of the puzzle. And you can't just concentrate on the interest rate. There's, there's so many other pieces to it. And, you know, it's not, you know, as you said, you know, the payment may be higher. But, you know, it doesn't seem to matter what the interest rate is the payments always, almost always higher than somebody originally thought that that's what they wanted. Did you have that in cars?

Yeah. I mean, you have that and everything and everything. I mean, it's just like, in when when my dad first went, he had an old TV, the way they call it, the furniture, TVs, the ones in the woodbox, right? Oh, yeah. And so he's like, one day, he's like, Alright, we're gonna get a new TV. He's like, I think we only need about a 42 inch. We get there. And we start looking. Well, guess what? We walk out with that 72 inch, you wouldn't know why. Because the other ones just looks so much smaller compared to those. And the same thing. When you're looking at a house, you look at this house, oh, it might do this job. Another one had a bigger yard nicer garage. Oh, mama like that kitchen. Oh, and then you just start, you always increase same thing with cars is you get to the car lot. And then you're like, Oh, well, I'm looking at this one. Well, this one, I had two heated seats. And this one has now Oh, this one has a little more pep to it. And you end up spending a little bit more. I mean, we all have a budget, do not get me wrong, you need to try to stay in your budget. But sometimes there is a gray line budget, you might say my budgets 200. But then I could actually go up to 300 or something like

that. It's never really the dollar amount. It's the payment that matters unless you're paying cash. So it all in the payment and your down payment and all of that. But it's just one of those things. And the thing is, if you don't if you're ready, and it's makes sense to buy today, and the market is easing up a little bit, there's still quick turns and you know, houses when's the last time we looked in our area, basically, it's nine days on the market and Annapolis is 10 days on the market. Now it's a month or two old, we don't have numbers yet I looked at I looked to see if my board put them out there and put them out yet. But the forecast for appreciation. And I personally think this is low. And I'll tell you why I think it's low. The forecast for appreciation from Freddie Mac. Is is 4% in 2023 and 4.4% from Fannie Mae and 2023. You know, there's a couple others that are that are different than that. But that's what they're that's what they're forecasting. Okay. So they keep forecasting these lower numbers for this year. That's what they keep forecasting? No, well, that's for 2023. It is for 2023. But I keep seeing the same numbers. Yeah, they're higher than this. They're six and 7%. Because we already have a lot of the year right. So they're gonna have to take that. But I just saw the numbers for August in our area, and it's still like 17%.

I think one thing that you and I, we've talked about this and when we look at these airports, we have to you have to keep in mind, these aren't just Oh, the Midwest states. No, no, this includes California. This includes New York, this includes Montana, Idaho, these are national things. So is the appreciation that California was seeing when they're starting to see a mass exodus of people is that appreciation gonna still be high? It may not and because of that, so it's such a high A there's so many houses there that is going to skew the numbers. I mean, what you and I have done the little game with all right, these people are all in this world series or what are the house values? Indian is so low and so comfortable with living think it's hard for us to look at these numbers and be like, Oh, we're like the rest of us. Because we're not.

We're not, you know, coming up on the break. So after the break, we will be talking about the seven most important to do's to your home before winter sets in.

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Welcome back to Indy's Real Estate Gurus. I'm Rick Ripma, your hard work and mortgage guy

and I'm Ian Arnold with Advisors Mortgage Group, and you did miss our first 15 minutes, check out our podcasts Indys Real Estate Gurus.

Or if you want to listen to the other shows. Also, if you if you or anybody you know, is looking to buy sell refinance, or you know you just have questions, or you want us to talk about something on the radio, contact us the best way just go to hard working mortgage guys.com That's hard work and mortgage guys.com. And we will be you can contact us from there, all of our contact information is right there. And now we're going to the question of the week. Now it's time for questions with the gurus.

Question of the week is brought to you by the reduce of mortgage. It's our inflation fighter, with the price of everything going up. Call us today to see what we can do to help reduce your payment to help your bank account out and how

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So this is inflation is the rise of prices. Right? Right. So how do you reduce price? Maybe it's refinance. If you have a lot of equity, you can refinance, and then reduce your payment help offer

those payments and other other Yep, other debts. So you do a cash out, reduce your payment and other debts. And if anybody has interest in thatHardWorkingMortgageGuys.com That's HardWorkingMortgageGuys.com. Yep.

So last week's question was what is orange and sounds like a parent? If you're looking listening closely to an assignment last week, you might have already you might have already heard the answer. The answer is a carrot. So this week is I travel all around the world, but I never leave the corner. What am I tune in next week? So, Rick, I know you've lived in your house for quite quite a long time. And I mean, I've only been there for seven years. I also grew up in Florida. So Indiana winter is not like Florida winter. I mean, yeah, but neither are hurricanes that they're going, they just went through. Alright, so what are things that you think you have you do around your house?

Well, first of all, the very first thing we do every winter, is we have HVAC company come in, and a furnace and heating, heating and air conditioning company come in and service our our furnaces, because that seems to be the number one thing you can do to make sure that you're not going to have a problem. You know, in the past when I was a new homeowner, many many years ago, we didn't do that we didn't even know to do that. You know, it seems so second nature when you've been doing it every year, but I didn't know to do that back then. And we had you know we had an old furnace and we had issues I'm in the middle of winter. And that's a terrible time to have issues, not that them service in it is going to eliminate everybody that nobody's going to have an issue. But the likelihood is that you're going to not have an issue or if they service that they're going to be much quicker at getting back to you. Most of the time you you do a kind of a service contract, which really is just paying for your your, what I found your winter and your spring tuneups.

Yep. To be honest with you. I ran into this, probably about four years ago. I'm sitting in my house in the middle of winter. It just feels like keeps getting colder. And I mean, my father in law comes over and he's like, Hey, is your thermostat working? I'm like, I don't know. It just seems like he's getting colder. I don't know if it was drafts coming in. I'm like, well, we just replaced the windows. And so I went out and bought a new thermostat, installed it. Guess what still had the same problem. So I called the heating network. I was like, Hey, come on. It was just sensors in there. Because my laundry room and my furnace are in the same room. I guess it gets really dusty. Because with the laundry. And then he was like, Yeah, you need to get these we need to be clean every since then. I do that contract. i Every winter, I pay to have them come out. And then the nice thing is is during right when summer starts to hit and it starts to warm up, I just call them I don't charge. They don't charge me anything. They just come out service my AC and we're done. Right? They charge it yours already paid. Yeah, yeah. But it's just kind of nice. It is I agree to be honest with you. Since then, we've done it every single year. And I've been saying one, it's a little more peace of mind as these guys look at it, if there's something small is going to happen, they're going to be like, hey, look, you need us, you need to look at this. And head it off before it becomes a

massive number one thing you need to do if you're not doing that is replaced the filter. Oh, you have to replace the filters. And if you're having worked on in your house, replace the filter, even during the time because it's so dusty, you got to keep that that furnace filter clean to keep your furnace and air conditioning working properly.

Alright, so the next one is is actually what I'm going to get done this year, because I've been putting it off a little bit. I don't do it every year. But I just need to get chimney cleaned. And what they'll do is you'll you just call a company, they'll come out, they'll clean it, and they'll also inspect it. And you want to do that normally, let's be honest, you don't want your house catching on fire. I mean, that's, that's the biggest thing is, look, you don't wanna be getting around Christmas time you go to like that fire. And next thing you know, you're standing outside White House birds. I mean, that is a big thing. And to be honest, I probably shouldn't have put it off too much. But this year, I have to do it.

It's one of those things. If you have a fireplace that has a flue, you need to clean Yep. Because they get clogged. And you know, you get sometimes birds in that Bay will build nests in there or squirrels end up in there. So you just need to get it cleaned out. And I think when they inspect it, they also make sure there's no leakage and that type of thing. And they can they take care of that. I don't have a I have a fireplace, but I have no flue, I have a gas 100% efficient. So I don't have I don't have that. But I I've been around a long time my dad had, you know, they used to do that all the time, because they'd have that taken care of. Now this other, this next one is a very simple thing to do. But it's also a very simple thing to forget.

Correct. And this is something like I said, I grew up in Florida, there's something you don't think about, and unhook your garden hose, right? And make sure it's drained out. And why would you drain it, make sure all the water is out there. Because once hot water freezes, guess what? It expands, and you don't have to go. Springtime up. Now I gotta go buy a new hose. So definitely, and it's one of the things what I've even seen some people in the wintertime, they'll wrap insulation around their outside forces to keep them warm too.

Yeah, but here's the thing. Okay, you have to unhook the hose. It's not, you could leave the hose outside. Some people do. I don't. Yeah, I drain the hose. But the problem is, it's that hose bib, okay, that that thing that you're connecting to is called the hose bib. If you don't unhook the hose, it doesn't drain that goes back into your house about a foot and it drains when you unhook the hose. It drains the water out of it. If you don't drain the water out of it. It freezes in bursts. And if it freezes, and it bursts now you got a real problem. Yep. Okay, and it now it may not freeze right? To winter, but when it warms up, it breaks. And now you've got a real problem. So it's an easy, easy thing to do. And well worth well worth doing. Just make sure you do it. Obviously it's a little early. You don't have to do it right now. But certainly end of October sometime in November. Just watch what the weather is if it's getting cold, pull your hoses,

right. Next one I would say and this really depends especially I don't have too many trees around my house. But clean gutters, because you don't want that leaves to compact in there. Next thing you know, all that water gets in there, all that snow, then it freezes what happens when something gets freezes, it gets heavier. So then what you don't want to walk out in one morning, you're like man Nellore snow. And next thing you know, you see half your gutter laying on the ground because it got so heavy. cleaning gutters is a necessity. And

it's not just that it makes water backup. You end up water is one of the worst things you can have to happen to get into your house, your house needs to be watertight. You can't you don't want and that's an easy water backs up, it freezes. And if you're if your gutters are full and they freeze, and then it freezes up underneath your shingles. Now you've got a huge issue. And so it's it's a critical thing to do. That's probably not something you ever worried about in Florida. But if you don't have gutter guards, I put gutter guards on last year, because this was a pain I had to have somebody come out I'm not gonna climb up a ladder. I've heard of too many people who have problems so you can do it yourself or you can have somebody do it if I didn't think it was that expensive. I thought it was worth doing. But now that I have gutter guards, I don't even have to worry about it.

Alright, so here's another one that I don't have to worry about. But I know a couple of neighbors do winterizing their split sprinkler system is basically the same thing. We're just talking about what the hookups. I mean, what you have to do is you have to flush all that water L because if you do not those pipes will break right? And then all that money you spent digging up your yard and put all these pipes in and for all this water. Guess what? You got to do it again. That's right. So definitely you want to winterize that. And to be honest with you, most people who have these, they understand that. But look, if you just moved in a house that does you've never had these, you need to do this. Yep. Now another one is one I tell people they should do a little more often than just once a year is walk around inspection of your house. Yep, got to do that. And I'm gonna combine this because we'll run a little short and the same thing was just do a like a 10 minute walk just slowly walk around. Look up and down. Is there little cracks is there I can't think of what the little side piece plastic pieces are on the house. I call it right now. The siding side well yeah, siding, vinyl, the vinyl siding. Yeah, make sure that there's no Pete little pieces missing. Make sure all that just do a small little walk around. It doesn't take very much. Also, you might want to if you don't get on the roof, you might want to have somebody else get on the roof. Just just do a quick little use

binoculars, use binoculars and see see everything. But we're running out of time. So we appreciate you joining us. I'm Rick Ripma, your hard work and mortgage guy and I'm Ian Arno with advisors Mortgage Group. And next week, join us for how to pick the best mortgage and loan officer. Thanks for joining us. Have a great day.

Brent NMLS number 33041. Recruitment NMLS number 664589. Ian Arnold's NMLS number is 1995469 equal housing opportunity, some restrictions apply?

Well, first off, thank you for joining us, Danielle. I appreciate it. And I just was curious, how did you come to find out about Rick Ripma and advisors mortgage, oh, I was looking for a mortgage for myself for a brand new home that I was building. And I wasn't sure the direction to go, I didn't have anybody in mind. So I kind of just spoke to whoever I could speak to, I got their number and everything seemed to be exactly what I was looking for. So I went with them. The thing I liked the most about Rick and his advisors mortgage is that I could go and upload things online. And I didn't have to always be on the phone with them or sending them documents or trying to look for certain things that I needed to get the process going. Which was really great for me, I had a processor named Mark Coleman, who really helped me out in making sure I had everything I needed because I I didn't know the first thing about having a mortgage. So it was awesome to have so much help. I think probably what I've benefited from the most is really just the understanding that sometimes I would get busy and maybe I forgot to upload a document or I forgot to do a certain part of the process in a timely manner. And they would get right back with me and it wasn't like a hey, we really need this right now. It was always Hey, just wanted to make sure you still remember that we need this. Well, you don't get that too much. In this day and age. It seems like most people are either, you know, very demanding of something they need from you and they need it right now. And, and I agree I've seen that in Rick's attitude with us over over the last 10 years that he's very patient but also helpful to get the right things he needs. So exactly. In conclusion is Rick Ripma and advisors mortgage somebody that you would use in the future and or tell your friends and family about. Absolutely and I just want to thank them for all the effort they put in to help me find my dream home.

Ranch NMLS number 33041 Recruitment NMLS number 664589 Equal Housing up paternity some restrictions apply

I'm Rick Ripma You can go to hard working mortgage guys.com