Our Housing Market - Special Guest - Realtor Guru Jeremy Page

Rick Ripma  0:00  

Who needs a realtor? Well you do if you're buying or selling a home, find out why this week on India's real estate gurus.

Announcer  0:13  

Advisors Mortgage Group is proud to present Indys Real Estate Gurus hosted by Rick Ripma, the hardworking mortgage guy, please contact Rick for all of your mortgage needs at HardWorkingMortgageGuy.com That's HardWorkingMortgageGuy.com. Now, here's the hard working mortgage guy, Rick Ripma.

Rick Ripma  0:40  

I'm Rick Ripma, your hard work

Ian Arnold  0:42  

and mortgage guy and I'm Ian Arnold Advisors Mortgage Group.

Rick Ripma  0:45  

Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate it. Do you want to get top dollar for your home? Do you want to get the best deal on a new home or maybe you want to do both. This person has sold so many homes in Indiana. He's been awarded a very prestigious honor. He also has a Bachelors of Arts degree and marketing and business management. He is a graduate of the Carpenter Realtors success strategies. He's a GSS designee. He's on the Council of certified residential specialist. He's a graduate of the certified residential specialist and he's a designee of the certified specialists with MIBOR. He's a real Academy of Leadership Fellow. He's a graduate of the Real Estate Institute, a real tour Institute. He's a graduate of GRI does, or GRI designee. He's a former council member. And his name is Jeremy page. Jeremy, welcome. We appreciate it.

Jeremy Page  1:43  

Thanks so much for having me. Right.

Rick Ripma  1:45  

And you're with carpenter. Real tours. Yes, sir. At Zionsville. Yes, sir. And you're actually the assistant manager also?

Jeremy Page  1:51  

Yeah, I'm actually the head manager of that location.

Ian Arnold  1:54  

Oh, you're the head manager that so you never tell everybody that he's also very modest. He's a huge producer, and he runs the office. Thank you. That's awesome. That is that's I did not know that. You're, you're considered a guru. And the other honor you've got as your you're a guest on our show. And that's a huge honor. As far as we're concerned.

Jeremy Page  2:15  

Given many awards, I don't know any, are quite as good. So thank

Rick Ripma  2:19  

you very much we do. Let's get into the numbers a little bit. I want to get into the mortgage numbers, then we're gonna get into what's going on in the market. What's happened before, you know what, what happened in the last year or two. Maybe back as long as five years ago, kind of what's what's happened, what is happening and what's going to happen. And Jeremy's gonna go over that. But before he does that, I want to talk about the market. And I want I want you to, you know, the first thing is what are mortgage rates doing and what do we expect mortgage rates to do? And mortgage rates have have fallen, as we've talked about, since June, they're still extremely there. They're much better than they were they aren't where they were, you know, eight months 10 months ago, but we tend to be going that way. As we've talked recession seems like it's it's we I think it's here, a lot of people just think it's, it's going to be here. But it's not here yet. It's just a matter of them saying it's, you know, the designating it is, which is how it becomes that way. So I think that's going to happen with that. The beautiful thing of of that most people are very scared of what's going on in the market. The news media reports the Feds raising the federal funds rate. everybody's scared that that's that's really bad for the market. But let's talk about it. No recession, mortgage rates fall happens every single time. If you look at the recessions, it always happens, and home prices go up home values go up. And they may not go up at the same pace that we've been going up. But Jeremy, have you ever seen him go up at this pace before?

Jeremy Page  3:56  

Absolutely not. No.

Rick Ripma  3:58  

It's crazy. 90% last year? Yes. Yeah. And our average was 4%. Before, I always thought three, but now that I've looked back at the numbers, I guess I was told three, but when you actually look at the numbers, it was 4% On average, sometimes higher, sometimes lower. Never 19%.

Jeremy Page  4:13  

Right. Now it's been it's been crazy here in the last several years in the real estate world.

Rick Ripma  4:19  

It's just it's just not. So with that. And then we go into recession. The feds low or raising the federal funds rate ever. They they report, the news reports, hey, rates went up. And everybody thinks rates went up when you get calls, right. Yeah, I get calls. What are they asking?

Ian Arnold  4:35  

What are the rates coming? Yeah, yeah. Well, if I knew that, I'd already told you

Rick Ripma  4:39  

Yeah, rates are going up. That's everybody calls me they say hey, I got to do something right away rates are going up. Well, you know what rates may go up a little bit but rates when the federal when the Feds raise the federal funds rate it raises prime prime is tied to the federal funds rates 3% above the federal the federal funds rate. But because the federal funds rate being raised is good. bid for inflation, good to fight inflation. And inflation is the arch enemy of bonds, the raising of the federal funds rate is good for mortgage rates, which is why when they started raising it in June, or actually, I think it was in May, our rates started to come down June, June, we hit our high and they've they've started to come down. So rates are good, it is a great time to buy a house. Absolutely. And it's gonna continue

Jeremy Page  5:24  

correct. And the the interest rates obviously factor in to affordability and what people are able to purchase. One of the things that I think a lot of buyers are experiencing here recently is they kind of got the double whammy, they got the values that were shooting through the roof, like you said, 19% year over year, and that's on top of about the same the year previous, which are numbers we've never seen here in Central Indiana. So our markets always slow and steady wins the race. And we've just kind of blown that out of the water last couple of years, for a lot of different reasons. But in addition to those values going up, the interest rates going up a little bit, which they're still historically great rates, in fact, I believe isn't the average long term around 6%. Interest rate,

Rick Ripma  6:17  

average long term is even much higher than that. Okay. So it's it's a much higher, much higher rates. I don't remember the exact number. But

Ian Arnold  6:25  

let's just be honest, we talked about this the other day, or the other day few shows back is interest rate 30 years ago, was that 17%? Right? I mean, you would freak out if your car payment had a 17% interest rate,

Jeremy Page  6:39  

just take your credit card out and buy a house. Why not? Yeah, that's crazy. It's crazy. And that's what my parents and a lot of people that I've talked to, they've experienced, you know, I get those stories all the time where I'm helping someone now and they say, Hey, I bought my first house and it was 16% 17% 18% interest rate. We are way far from that. The problem is, as humans, we're relatively short sighted in our views of things. And when it goes from two and 3% interest rates or 4%, and then jumps up to five or six. It seems like it's really high rate.

Ian Arnold  7:14  

I mean, just look at gas. We were freaking out when it got over $5. Now, we got to like was it I filled up for 399 the other day? Oh, now I feel relieved? Yeah, really, I was paying $2. Like I said, I'm about a year ago.

Jeremy Page  7:28  

Yeah, and it's it is very similar. So the rates are great. They are great, long term. Historically, they're great rates, it's a great time to buy a house, the market is slowly starting to soften a little bit, it's still a strong seller's market. Rarely has it been a great time to both buy a home, or to sell a house. But right now, you get to experience both of those, you still get a great price for your house when you sell it. But there's more inventory coming on the market. There's more options. And like I said, historically, interest rates are pretty low right now,

Rick Ripma  8:09  

rationally right to make a big difference. And also on that when you're looking at, you know, is this a good time? And is it a good time to buy a good time to sell? You know, as you said that I hadn't thought of this before. But you know, even when it was tough when it was completely a seller's market, yes. It was still a very good time to buy, just like it is today. Because when you can buy a house, and after you buy it, it's going up in value very quickly, even if you're paying a higher interest rate. So today, if if you think if somebody thinks well, you know, I don't know, maybe I should wait, maybe I should wait a year to well, we have more houses on the market, so it's a good time to do it. In the next year or two, we're still gonna see the price of the home is gonna go up considerably.

Jeremy Page  8:50  

Yeah. And if you went back, you know, just spitballing ideas in my head. If you went back to all my clients in the last three years, and ask them if they're glad they bought a house when they did, every single one of them, I think would say absolutely yes. Because what it's helped them do with their net worth and their equity position. You know, think about it, if you bought $100,000 House five years ago, it's probably worth you know, I don't know 175. Right, crazy. So they've got in that scenario, they got $75,000 additional equity and or net worth, just by buying a house, and they were actually going to have to pay if they rented so they live rent free. Plus, they got $75,000 Extra in their pocket they wouldn't have had right they did not buy that house

Rick Ripma  9:42  

and even if the market goes down and they only earn 5%

Jeremy Page  9:47  

X percent on your money right now, it's not not too shabby is

Rick Ripma  9:50  

it's not too shabby. And it's not just 5% on your money. Your house goes up by 5% But you didn't put 100% You didn't pay cash. Right? So it's on what you but even beyond that. If you bought a house three years ago, and it only, or you buy a house today and only goes up at 5% a year and you pay $100,000 for a house, it's worth somewhere between 115 and 120 in three years,

Jeremy Page  10:12  

and you have to live somewhere. The alternative is, you know, go and pay rent and rent values have gone, kind of through the roof, which goes hand in hand with, you know, home buying, you know, it's it's kind of an adverse relationship, if everybody can buy and it's easy to buy and the, you know, the rental rates typically go down. But in like these last couple of years, where it's been a really competitive market, hard to buy a home, then you know, the the rental prices have gone kind of through the roof.

Ian Arnold  10:45  

And just think about it. If when you're looking at renting as an investment part of life and getting your wealth, you're just throwing your money away. Absolutely. I mean, if you're spending two grand a month, and that's basically what some of these rent places have gone to here around here. If you take that times 12, that's $2,400 right down the drain, or $24,000. Or you can play that towards a house. Yep, absolutely. Think about that. Just massive. Now, if you're living in a basement, maybe your parents basement, that might be a little different. But

Jeremy Page  11:19  

yeah, well think about it, you know, we know $2,000 towards a mortgage, like get you a pretty, pretty decent house. Yeah, that goes a long way versus what you could get for 2000.

Ian Arnold  11:30  

So I know Rick, and I love to look at the MIBOR and everything. No, I know. We are not experts. But here after the break. How about you help us go through it and see what you guys look at as Realtors compared to what we look at?

Jeremy Page  11:47  

I'd love to share your my insight with us.

Rick Ripma  11:49  

And before that, if somebody wants to get a hold of you, Jeremy and they want to list their house, they want to buy a house. They have real estate questions. How would they get ahold of you? Yeah, so

Jeremy Page  11:58  

my cell phone for calls or text is 317-413-5311. My email is J page. At Cole carpenter.

Rick Ripma  12:10  

It's page P-A-G-E. So J page pretty easy, just like a page called carpenter. Yes. Awesome. After the break, we're going to go over the MIBOR information, and it really the real estate market in Indiana. With Jeremy he's going to tell us all about what's going on and what has been going on and what he foresees going to happen in our market. Thanks for joining us, and we'll be back in just a second.

Unknown Speaker  12:38  

Advisors, mortgage brokers licensed by Indiana Department of Financial Institution equal housing opportunity. NMLS 33041 Rick Ripma NMLS 664589

Rick Ripma  12:46  

Hi, I'm Rick Ripma. With the hard work and mortgage guys and advisors Mortgage Group, where we believe delivering the best mortgage for you is why we exist and it's how we all succeed. We believe

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Ian Arnold  13:00  

and hardworking mortgage guys, we believe in custom tailored loans, not the one size fits all approach.

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We believe in always presenting you with all your options. So you get the loan you want the way you want it.

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Rick Ripma  13:29  

we believe there is the best mortgage for you. And we believe we are the team to deliver it find us online at hardworking mortgage guys.com.

Announcer  13:42  

Brought to you by advisors Mortgage Group, where we believe the more you know about financing a home, the less stressful buying and refinancing will be.

Ian Arnold  13:55  

Welcome back, and thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it very much. I'm

Rick Ripma  13:59  

Rick Ripma, your hard working mortgage guy and I am Ian Arnold Advisors Mortgage Group.

And if you'd like to get a hold of us on mortgages, go to HardWorkingMortgageGuy.com That's HardWorkingMortgageGuy.com You can contact us from there. Again, HardWorkingMortgageGuy.com

Ian Arnold  14:13  

And now it's time for question or the week. Now it's time for questions with the gurus.

The question of the week is brought to you by renovate our renovation loans. If you're looking for a home that needs a little work, get that taken care of be at the same time you purchase it so that you don't have to worry about out of pocket expenses later. And like Rick and I've said that's our fix it mortgage that we do here. So everything is done through us and with professional so you don't have to worry about trying to find that wrong person and getting swindled or anything we make sure everything is taken care of. Yep, we have a whole group. Yep. So last week's question was Why did the fly never land On a computer? The answer is he was afraid of the World Wide Web. Oh, look, even Jeremy pages over here laughing Look at this. All right, so

Rick Ripma  15:10  

yes, kids. Yeah.

Ian Arnold  15:13  

All right. So this week is what kind of running leads to walking. Find out again next week. Now remember, if you actually missed our first roughly 15 minutes, catch us on our podcasts at Indys Real Estate Gurus again, you can find that anywhere. Because if you missed it, you need to tune in and listen to the first 15 minutes.

Rick Ripma  15:33  

It's Indy's Real Estate Gurus.com. But it's also an all the different podcasts site. So you can just look at Indy’s Real Estate Gurus and you'll be able to find our site. With that.

Ian Arnold  15:45  

So yeah, so let's jump into the MIBOR. And since we have Jeremy Page here, he's going to what they call educate Rick and me. So when we look at it, I mean, we did see a decrease and medium home sales price from June to July, is that a normal thing, or

Jeremy Page  16:05  

I wouldn't say it's normal. And but I will tell you, as I mentioned before, the market is softening a little bit. We're still getting multiple offers on a lot of houses, I would venture to say most houses. But the days on markets trending up just a little bit, you know, we talked about that a little bit earlier off air, you know, in July average days on market was 18 days on market back the month before in June was 14. So during it up for days, there's still a lot of houses that are getting sold. On day one, day two, and day three, we had mentioned as realtors, a lot of times we have changed it to be a more concise listing period on the seller side, what we try to do is get it on the market, you know, and then give it three or four days for people to go take a look at the house that we could collect the multiple offers, present those all to the sellers. So honestly, that days on market are a little misleading because there is some kind of fudge days built into there. We could sell a lot more homes in one or two or three days, versus giving it those several extra days to be on the market.

Ian Arnold  17:23  

But you're when we're talking about 18 days, that's still pretty darn fast. Absolutely.

Jeremy Page  17:27  

In fact, we say a balanced real estate market is six months of marketing time. Obviously, we are very far from that,

Ian Arnold  17:36  

when 18 days compared to six months, absolutely. 180 days. Absolutely. 10 times lower. Yep. That's crazy. It is

Jeremy Page  17:43  

it is. And when I started my real estate career, it was the exact opposite. It was a huge, huge buyers market, it was after the Great Recession. I think the average days on market back then was like a year, year and a half, you know, we had way more listings available than we had buyers. And my real estate life has kind of come full circle. So we saw a little bit of balanced market there in between and then look at us now you know, like I said 18 days on market in July, typically now, the seasonality of real estate, we see a little bit of a slowdown July, August, a lot of schools go back the end of July, beginning of August now. Typically speaking, we see you know, a couple of weeks before a couple of weeks after school starts a little bit of a slowdown, people are getting their kids ready to go back to school, they're getting the processes down, they're getting it all figured out for a couple of weeks. We're already here, you know, mid-August, we're already starting to come out of that we're already starting to see a lot of buyer activity again. But there for a couple of weeks or a month, it was a little bit slower. And that's I think, just seasonality. The funny thing about our business or I guess, you know, just like interest rates, what are they going to do? Well, all of our listeners know that we don't know, but we're educated and we have good ideas of what's gonna go on. You know, right now, I think the market is going to jump back up and we're gonna have a great strong fall we had last year we had kind of a runaway fall season for MIBOR. So the sales just kind of went off the charts, you know, starting about now that time last year. We're a little bit below behind on sales, comparing this year to last year, however, I think we might see that the numbers may not look quite as good as they did this the end of the year last year, at the end of the year this year just because we have such a steep hill to climb to finish out the year. However, I think we're gonna finish the year strong. I just think is not going to be probably as strong as it was this time last year.

Rick Ripma  19:59  

We're Short, though on inventory through the first part of the year. Oh, absolutely. And that was much lower. So that would be I mean, the reason we're behind is not because of lack of demand, it was because of lack of

Jeremy Page  20:11  

product demand. Correct? Correct. And, really, we talked about inventory. And people might think that is, you know, how many houses come on the market. That's not necessarily the case inventory is what's out there and available at any certain time. So we're still selling, we're still setting records. I mean, last year was a record year, this year, we'll probably be close to a record year again. And so with that being said, a lot of stuff still coming on the market and available to buyers. They're just getting swept up pretty quick. So when you got 18 days on market, your inventory, you know, think about if if you go to Lowe's, you know, their inventories, what's on the shelves, you can order stuff online, or you can wait and it'll come in, but it's not inventory and lets it sit in there and able to be picked up and purchased

Rick Ripma  21:00  

right now, the days on market, though, doesn't that include? Well, actually, how how do they you know how they figure that because I know you have specs in there. Yeah, that comes from builders. And when they, when they list a home as a spec home, it may be dirt still.

Jeremy Page  21:16  

Yeah. And that's why it said those, the days on market is a little bit misleading. There's a lot of factors that go in, but historically, we've always included specs. Now, some builders have gone to building a lot of specs, and they're gonna have 70 80 100 days on the market, because like you said, they may start advertising it after the framing stage or you know, different builders have different timeframes when they they put those out there. But those days accumulate, but the days on market should be from the list date, through accepted offer date through pending date. So if you if you go on a market on the 10th of a month, and you haven't accepted offer on the 18th of that month, then you would have eight days on

Rick Ripma  22:02  

market. And in that time, so when you get the days on market, it's you put the house on the market, you accept all the offers you look at so some of that you've had offers maybe the second day absolutely isn't until accepted offer when that time for good house, it seems to me six months ago, for quite some time. Any house sold quickly. I mean, it just didn't seem to matter the price. Today, it seems like the ones that are selling are the houses that need to have issues, but the good homes are going like crazy still.

Jeremy Page  22:36  

Absolutely. I think that over the summertime, especially when the buyer demand isn't quite as strong. We saw that. And sometimes it's sometimes even the good houses were sitting there, it was really weird. You know, sometimes you'd have a house and you think this thing's gonna blow off the hinges with people going in and out of this house to buy it. And it took a week to sell other ones you're like, Yeah, this one might take, you know, a week or two to sell and people are knocking down the door on that one. But I can give you an example. I listed one yesterday, mid week. Great House, just it was actually a condo renovated. It went we had four offers, you know, within eight hours or 10 hours of listing the property

Rick Ripma  23:23  

listed on days as Market like point eight days. Yeah. Well, and

Jeremy Page  23:28  

then what we did is we called for highest and best offers and all offers are due by today at 5pm. So by the time we get pended, it'll show you know, 2,3,4 days on market, when really two of those days is just kind of fudge days for the days on mark. So

Ian Arnold  23:44  

I got a question. So when somebody goes to list one, yeah. Are you seeing a lot more people do more work to them? Now? I understand. Like if there's a bunch of holes in the wall, yes. excute those? Yeah. Are you telling people to do a lot more work now? Or are you saying hey, hold off a little bit because of the market?

Jeremy Page  23:59  

Well, I'll tell you, it is a once again, it's a very strong seller's market, when it's really heavily favored in one direction or the other. They have the advantage. That's just the way it works. I have gone into houses, it's a very case by case basis. I've gone into houses where I say, hey, we need to we need to do quite a bit of work. But then there's other houses where I say it's fine the way it is. The stuff that's going for top dollar and has the most competition is typically the one that's been that looks the previous ones wins the beauty pageant, you know, that one typically gets more people coming to it. So it's a case by case scenario where we got to run the numbers, take a look at it. Figure out hey, how much is it going to cost you to do some of these renovations? And or will its will it pay off in the end? So it's very case by case scenario.

Rick Ripma  24:51  

Yeah. Nobody knows the market right? But it's Oh, Jeremy. Here's what I found funny about what he said. You know, I remember a few years ago talking with Jeremy, and it wasn't, you know, you put the house on it, you know, it may take a week to get a bunch of shows it may take two weeks. It used to be? Well, yeah, you know, you put it on the market, it takes, you know, it takes time, but it's gonna take a month or two, you know, that's how it used to be. Absolutely. But it's not that way today. No, but people have to understand today. It's very good. It's a seller's market. You know, it's that way. But it's still it's still I still think, I think, I think it's more of a good market for both people because of the way prices are going up. And it is

Jeremy Page  25:33  

a pretty rare market where it is, it's a great time to buy. And it's a great time to sell.

Rick Ripma  25:38  

Yeah, I think that's I think that's phenomenal. So it's a it's a perfect time. But it's not always going to be like this. So you got to understand that, especially if you're somebody who bought or you buy in this market, and five years from now you go to sell. Yeah. I know from the way I see people with interest rates. Well, you know, I got 2% and, you know, okay, well, it's not there anymore. I think, you know, somebody could run into that in a few years where, yeah, the home I bought it sold in two days. Yep.

Jeremy Page  26:13  

That's the market. I don't first see here in good old river city, as we say here in Central Indiana. I don't see the values plunging anytime in the near and or short, distant future. So I think if you buy a house now you're fine. Yeah, I think you will be fine.

Rick Ripma  26:31  

I don't think prices are going down at all. I think they're going to not go up as quickly. absolutely different. What do you think he

Ian Arnold  26:39  

Yeah, I think about the same, it'd be more of a plateau, so to speak. So and then it'll just trickle up. You might get a couple, three to 2% raises for a couple years. They're just gonna go right back to normal, but I don't see as big as any Indiana is blowing up. I mean, this was happening before this. And I mean, it's just growing, growing and growing, whether companies or just people like living in more in the Midwest place, it's just you'll reach a plateau, but you won't see a huge drop.

Jeremy Page  27:08  

And Ian has a great point. I ‘ve worked with a lot of people relocating in and out of town. It's funny because a lot of times they'll say, oh, I don't want to be here. I want a big city. You know, I'm from New York or whatever. And they come in, and by the time they're moving out, they're saying, Man, Jeremy, we're gonna miss this place. We love this place. It's a great place to live. And keep in mind, guys, we're still one of the most affordable places in the United States to live. Right. That includes our values of homes and our home prices. Yeah,

Rick Ripma  27:39  

that makes a big difference. It does. And it is a great place to live. One of the things that always amazed me is when I'd fly back into town from some other place. How pretty India Indiana actually is. You think, oh, they have mountains. They have oceans. They have all this. It's very, very pretty here. Yeah.

Jeremy Page  27:55  

And I've traveled all over the world. And I love to travel. I love coming home. I'm calling Indy and,

Rick Ripma  28:02  

well, we're running out of time. How would somebody get ahold of you, Jeremy, if they wanted at any questions to do with real estate buying, selling, leasing whatever it is?

Jeremy Page  28:11  

How I get ahold so my cell phone is 317-413-5311 My website is your realtor jeremy.com

Rick Ripma  28:22  

And to get a hold of Ian, or I go to HardWorkingMortgageGuy.com That's HardWorkingMortgageGuy.com You can contact us from there. Thanks so much for joining us.

Ian Arnold  28:31  

Yes. And remember. So next week, we will be going over the four items that are always negotiable when buying a home. No, well, maybe you should have Jimmy Page back for that one too. And then we do have a special coming up in a couple of weekends. Our Labor Day special on how to buy a car in today's market. Perfect.

Rick Ripma  28:51  

Thanks for joining us.

Announcer  28:54  

Branch NMLS number 33041 Recruitment NMLS number 664589. Ian Arnold's NMLS number is 1995469 equal housing opportunity, some restrictions