What Happens When Emperor Penguins Lose Their Ice

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Emperor Penguins are running
out of ice faster than expected.

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What happens when your entire life
depends on ice and that ice disappears

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before your chicks can survive?

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That's not a future scenario.

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That's already happening
to Emperor Penguins.

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Emperor penguins have one
of the most rigid breeding

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cycles in the animal kingdom.

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They have courtship, which is
during the Antarctic winter; egg

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laying, which is from May to June;
And then males incubate the eggs

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for about 65 days without feeding.

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Chicks hatch in the coldest conditions on
earth and everything depends on one thing.

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Stable sea ice lasting
eight to nine months.

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If that timing breaks, the
entire reproductive cycle fails.

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Imagine having that rigid of
a reproductive cycle.

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That is insane.

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That is crazy to think about you know how
you depend on environmental circumstances,

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the environmental stability, and we
are at a time where an environmental

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stability is that it's lowest.

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We're seeing changes
happen each and every day.

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Now think about this.

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You have a male.

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He does everything he needs
to do to court his woman.

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His court, his mate, he's trying to go
in, he is trying to buddy up with her.

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He is trying to like hang out,
you know, they mate for life.

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So

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this is the one that he wants
for the rest of his life.

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On the females side, that's the
female penguin that wants this male

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penguin for the rest of their life.

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They walk together, they go
through the whole motions, and

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they breed and they have an egg.

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And that incubation
period takes a long time.

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And it all depends on how cold
and how warmer things get.

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But if it gets too warm or if the
wind pattern is off or the snow

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doesn't come, or things don't happen
the way they're supposed to happen,

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or you get more extreme storms, then
that can throw off the entire cycle.

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Think about when you don't
feed for that long, 65 days.

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I go two hours without
food and I go crazy.

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Imagine going 65 days without food.

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That's an energy cost that is very
demanding on the body to just stand

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there and sit on an egg or make
sure an egg does not hit the ice.

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Imagine what that would do.

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Compare it to somebody, like a
flexible breeding species that

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will actually have the ability to
change and be able to handle change.

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This is just not gonna go well
for this breed, this species.

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If it fails, everything fails.

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That's a lot on this poor species.

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That's a lot on someone an
animal, a species that lives.

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And the freezing cold
for most of the year.

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Emperor penguins just don't need ice.

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They need fast ice.

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They need sea ice
attached to the continent.

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So they need the strongest ice.

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It's not just ice floats.

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They need the strongest ice
just to be on the safe side.

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And you're probably gonna be
like, why do they need that?

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Because it provides stability
for breeding colonies.

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These are massive breeding colonies.

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It keeps chicks safe from Ocean
predators 'cause the Ocean predators

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that they face are in the Ocean.

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Orcas, leopard seals.

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We went through them the
last couple of episodes.

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If you haven't listened to those, go
to the last couple of episodes of a

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previous two days and you'll be able
to hear about orcas and leopard seals.

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And of course they need
stabilized 'cause it lasts long

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enough for chick development.

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Recent studies have shown that
fast ice is now forming later.

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And it's breaking up earlier and
it's becoming less predictable.

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That's not a good thing for a species
that demands that stability for

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the environment and for its land.

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Imagine just kind of like walking
around and all of a sudden the

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land is just gone underneath you.

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It just collapses.

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That's really, really bad.

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And I think when you lose that ice, that
rapidly freezes, like that fast ice.

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That pack ice eventually that's there
for life apparently, but not anymore.

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It starts to decay and
it starts to go down.

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And I think that's really what's happening
here and that's what we're seeing a

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degradation of, and a decrease of.

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And that's scary.

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That's really scary.

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Now, before satellites, we
had limited colony monitoring.

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And I feel like now with the
satellites we're starting to see more.

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And I think there's been
some really cool thing.

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High resolution satellite imagery
tracks the colonies near real time.

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I believe it was Michelle La
Rue, Dr. Michelle LaRue on the

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podcast a number of years ago.

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She's a great scientist.

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She now lives in New Zealand.

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She studies penguin.

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She studies Antarctic
colonies essentially.

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I don't remember the exact numbers,
but I remember from the interview

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there were about four colonies they
believe of emperor penguins that

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were sitting there in Antarctica.

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And then they were like, they notice it.

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Basically, they look at satellite
imagery of the scat profiles.

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So when you have a dense population
of emperor penguins, they're

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gonna poop and they're gonna
poop all in and around that area.

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And that poop stains the ice.

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And that poop can actually be
seen from a satellite in space.

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That's how much they poop.

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And so when they looked around, they
saw that it's not four colonies.

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They actually saw 22 very densely
circled scat marks, poop marks.

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And they were able to track that
there were actually 22 populations.

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I don't know.

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This was a long time ago.

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This was in the mid 20 teens.

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I don't know if they're
right there anymore.

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But when you start to have high
resolution satellite imagery that's

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tracking these colonies almost in
your real time, depending on when you

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get the pictures, they can detect
whether colonies are failing or not.

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So failure events that are
happening across Antarctica.

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And so in 2022 to 2024, research showed
that the key finds what multiple colonies

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experienced complete breeding failures.

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An early ice breakup caused a
hundred percent chick mortality

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in some of those regions.

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That's how scary we are
seeing this change happen.

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In two years, we saw multiple colonies
experience complete breeding failure.

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In some areas there were a
hundred percent chick mortality.

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I'm saying it twice for a reason.

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It's not just a gradual decline,
it's a sudden system failure.

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These are not species
that can handle change.

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We already established that.

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And they're seeing change constantly.

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And so you look at like 22 colonies
and now it's probably less than that.

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That's a scary thought and
it's not gonna get better.

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How do we save these?

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I have no idea.

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We have to stop climate
change to save these.

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This is not something that is
going to help these populations.

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Recent modeling studies showed
that up to 90% decline of emperor

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penguin populations by 2100.

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That's less than a century away,
less than a century away, even

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under moderate emission scenarios.

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Why is this happening?

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Because small changes in ice timing
equals massive reproductive loss.

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Penguins have low ability
to relocate quickly.

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There's not much place to go, folks.

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It's really just a situation where
you have to be where you have to be.

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The ice is melting around you and
you're getting smaller, smaller

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areas, and these colonies are big.

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You have more competition for sites, and
until these colonies disappear, start

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disappearing more, that's when you're
gonna have a little bit more room.

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But even then, it's not even
gonna be that much room.

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And then the recovery
rates are pretty slow.

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So that doesn't help either.

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It just doesn't happen.

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When you have a species that's
long lived, it takes a while

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for it to reach sexual maturity.

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You start to get a slowdown
in the population recovery.

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And so when you have a slow down in the
population recovery and you have all

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these changes happen to a species that
doesn't like change, you start to see

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a drastic decline in their population.

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Now, Antarctica, when you look at
the ice and how it's being affected

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by climate change, Antarctica is
experiencing increased Marine heat waves.

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So that's warmer Ocean temperatures
and reduce sea ice extent.

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So when you have a heat wave,
that's where the water is being hot.

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Not just at the surface,
but pretty far down.

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And then when the ice is
at the surface and you have

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warmer water, it's gonna melt.

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That's just the way it goes.

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It melts.

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And you're not gonna have
ice for very long after that.

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It's really sad.

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Like people keep talking about how
climate change is not that big of a

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deal, and it bothers me so much because
they have no idea what's going on.

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They have no idea what's going on.

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In 2022 and 2023, record low Antarctic
sea ice levels were observed.

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And it was directly linked
to colony collapse events.

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That's how bad we are.

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That's in a situation where
we're seeing heat waves really

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changing the entire planet.

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We're seeing a hundred degree Fahrenheit
sea surface temperature in Florida.

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We're seeing rapidly increasing
intensity of hurricanes in

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the North American continents.

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And then of course, we're seeing typhoons
and cyclones doing the same thing.

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Because the water's warmer.

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And so that difference in pressure that it
provides, we get some more intense storms.

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It's really what it comes down to.

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And then of course when you have
heat that melts ice, you're getting

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more fresh water in the system.

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And that disrupts how salt water
flows and what's capping the salt

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water, and how that's gonna affect
circulation in the long, long term.

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It's not good, folks.

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I don't mean to be depressed.

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I don't, but this is just frustrating
because we're hearing this all the time.

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And then when you have emperor
penguins, which are canaries in

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the coal mine, essentially they're
sentinel species, which means that

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they signal a broader ecosystem health.

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If they fail, ice dependent
krill systems may also shift.

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Krill is being massively
overfished in Antarctic.

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We're seeing a change in their
population, a decline in their population.

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But then we also see like, you know, for
emperor penguins, like a predator prey

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dynamics that will change and a southern
Ocean stability that will be affected

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because of climate change and because of
this lack of ability to hold populations

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and to keep stable essentially.

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And so when we see krill fisheries
declining, we're seeing whales decline

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and we're seeing climate change affect
that, it's just, it's a negative loop that

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we continue to see happening over again.

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And here's the hard truth.

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You can't create sea ice and
you can't move entire colonies

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that depend on ice very easily.

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But you can protect feeding areas.

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And you can reduce additional
stress like fishing and disturbance.

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And then you can push
for climate mitigation.

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We can do all of these things.

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That's what we can do.

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That's what we have that
ability to do that by pressuring

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our governments to change.

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In 2022, emperor penguins were
proposed for protection under the

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Endangered Species Framework in the US.

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Emperor penguins.

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But the protection without
climate action has its limits.

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And even now we're seeing less
protection of endangered species.

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We're seeing less protection of
things that are affecting the

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US and affecting other places.

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Even in Canada, we're probably gonna
start to see changes in that as well.

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We're seeing changes in how DFO manages
things in the environment because

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of pipelines, because of fossil fuel
development and so forth, because

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the world is changing politically
and economically to be frank.

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And it's all being driven by this
lack of science knowledge by this

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push for greed for money and just
lack of scientific understanding of

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things that can help us in the future.

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And it's really a lack of
intelligence all the way around.

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And I think it's a scary thought.

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It really is a scary thought.

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Now scientists are watching
out for certain things.

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So researchers are focusing on
identifying certain climate refugia

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areas where ice can persist for longer.

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So areas, whether that's actually
gonna be colder or not longer.

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There may still be areas like that.

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Scientists are gonna be
tracking colony movement.

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They're gonna be looking at
monitoring adaptive behavior.

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That's gonna be really important.

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But the key question is, can
Emperor penguins adapt fast enough?

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Cause right now the data
suggests that it's not.

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And I think that's a scary thought.

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It really is a scary thought, and it's not
gonna stop until you and I act, until we

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start engaging and electing our government
representatives, our government officials

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that will act for climate change, not
for big business, not for fossil fuels.

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Not for chemical companies, not for the
companies that will just wanna make money.

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This is for you who wants to survive,
for you who wants to see the world do

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well and the world be taken care of.

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When we look at the final kind of
thoughts here, emperor penguins

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are not just losing the habitat.

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They're losing the timing that
makes their survival possible.

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That's really what it comes down to.

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And when that timing breaks,
the system's gonna break.

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And it's gonna be an overall break and
something that we need to work on to act.

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Now tomorrow we're gonna be covering
ice and glaciers and pack ice and

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so forth in Antarctica and how
it's doing and where we're at.

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But this is really important.

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We've covered three different
types of species this week.

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Orcas, leopard seals, as
well as emperor penguins.

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We found there's not a lot of
information on these species.

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The information we do have
does not suggest growth.

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It suggests decline maybe other
than the orcas, but it also a

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lot of lack of understanding.

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And in a time where we need a lot
of environmental understanding.

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We have the technology and we know
what works and we have the solutions

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and we're just not enacting them.

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It's a very frustrating time to
be someone who is for the Ocean.

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And I think that's kind of sad.

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It's frustrating.

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If you wanna learn more and you
want to know more about Antarctica,

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what it's like to work in Antartica
and the work that's being done.

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I have an interview coming up on Friday.

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We're talking to Ocean Networks
Canada that just went down there

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this year in February I believe.

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And they did a bunch of work.

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They installed some monitoring
systems to basically data

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acquisition systems in Antarctica.

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We're gonna hear all about what's
like to work and the challenges and

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everything like that that goes into
it, and how to work in Antarctica.

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It's gonna be a lot of fun.

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But this one, I'm sorry that it
wasn't like a better episode.

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I wanted it to be more fun, but just the
research that I found is just not fun.

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It's is not fun in the poles.

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And the Southern pole is no different
than the North Pole, in this case.

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So, but if you wanna learn more,
follow How to Protect the Ocean

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so you don't miss what's happening
tomorrow and the day after that.

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I want you to follow.

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I want you to learn 'cause that's the best
way to start moving and start acting for

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the Ocean, is to learn about the Ocean.

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So thank you so much for joining
me on today's episode of the How

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to Protect the Ocean Podcast.

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I'm your host Andrew Lewin.

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Have a great day.

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We'll talk to you tomorrow
and happy conservation.