Transcript
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Good morning, every one Sunday Morning
Money Matters show. Dave Sherwood here,
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I've got Sebastian Borcini, I've got
Dylan Greenberg, I've got Todd Glick,
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and I have no Dean Greenberg.
Dean is out of the office, so
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if you're tuning in for his wonderful
monologue, you're gonna have to put up
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with this today. Well, it
was FED week this week week. Yeah,
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that was the highlight, wasn't it. Big Federal Reserve. Always fun
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to see them come back to the
podium give us some ideas of where they're
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thinking rates are going to be in
the future. But again, I mean
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what we've been saying, Dave,
if no interest rate move on. This
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meeting didn't really say much what I
gathered, well, other than him saying
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that he thinks rate's a peak for
the cycle, which was good news,
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and the markets loved that. It's
just turned around and went positive on Thursday,
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so that was nice. And they're
still pricing in three rate cuts for
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twenty twenty four. It's surprising to
me to hear the markets surprised that this
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is the end of the rate hiking
cycle. I feel like we've been there
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for a while it seemed like it
seemed like you'd but again, all news
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is good news, right, all
news is good. Anything to give them
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a reason to give the stocks more
of a bid is it's happening right now.
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Dow got within one hundred points of
forty thousand. Forty thousand. I
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remind you that I was in this
business when we hit one thousand three years
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first time. We hit thirty thousand
for the first time three years ago.
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Yeah, they had the hats on
everything. Yeah, well they had.
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I had that one thousand hat,
the Dow one thousand. You have all
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those in your office. I should
have it. That's probably about thousand,
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all the big milestones. We can
just make one for them that would A
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down one thousand cap from back in
the early eighties would be maybe used to
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have some value, probably be worth
like two thirty bucks. Yeah, like
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all those beanie babies that we saved
for all those decades that are now worth
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nothing, just like they were,
just like they were decades ago. Right,
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new all time highs for all of
the major indices, the Dow,
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the SMP the Nasdaq, the Russell
two thousand, the upside the Russell two
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thousand did sat it out did not
hit a new all time high. The
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equal weighted SMP did hit a new
all time high now was up two percent
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for the week. S and P
five hundred up two point three Tech having
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NASDAK up two point eight as Tech
continues to lead. The Russell two thousand
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up one point five percent. Interestingly, the Russell two thousands only up seven
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tenths of a percent for the month, while the SMP's up almost three.
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Yeah, I mean we talked a
little bit about the Russell two thousand.
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There's a lot of semi quality companies
in there, and that's the reason that
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this rally hasn't They haven't been participating, and it seems like all the money
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is going to the high quality companies
or the companies that have a story with
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AI, with big tech, big
tech and anything that's associated with AI.
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Well it's idea that big tech companies
have a large market cap and everything like
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that, so you don't have to
try and invest in such a speculative company
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with a small cap, which is
the Russell two thousand, because the money
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is moving into the large ones.
It's just moving up more. Yeah,
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you have some of these Russell two
thousands that never even made a dime in
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their history of it being a company, because they're still just putting money into
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their research and development or whatever it
may be. So that's the scary thing
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about these small companies that you haven't
seen them perform, because normally, if
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you have a bull run, the
small caps lead the way if there is
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if it is a traditional bull run. So we talked about we talked about
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the Federal Reserve and their believing rates
unchanged and hinting that they'll probably be lowering
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rates later in the year. Vanguard
says it won't happen. That's their prediction,
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it won't happen. We've been saying
for months that we don't want to
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see it happen because if that happens, something's going wrong in the economy.
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And I keep hearing people say we
need to get back to normalized rates.
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People needs are normalized rates. Rates
right now are normal. This is where
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rates normally are. We've gone through
a period of incredibly low interest rates,
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which was preceded by period of relatively
high interest rates, and we're normal now.
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Yeah. I saw before two thousand
and eight and all that housing crash.
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I mean, interest rates were about
six percent. Yes, during like
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housing mortgage rates and stuff like that
in the early two thousands. And we
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have our friend Dave hand who owns
All American Lending with his wife Melissa,
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coming down a little bit later in
the show, and Dave said, race
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and the sixes. Our people are
getting used to that. Yeah. But
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to Dean's point that he talked about
a little a couple of weeks ago on
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the show, six percent on a
five hundred thousand dollars house is a lot
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different than six percent on a three
hundred thousand dollars house, right in terms
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of interest. So even though we're
at historically normalized rates now, we're not
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at the same price levels we were
at that time. So obviously it is
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harder for people to get houses now. Just because we're at historically normalized rates
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doesn't mean we're at historically leveled price
prices, right, So that's that's the
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caveat to that point. I would
say in the nineteen seventies, I was
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a real estate lender in Tucson and
interest straights anytime interesstrates dropped below eight percent,
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that was a ganga. You wanted
to jump on that as quick as
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you could. And Todd that five
hundred thousand dollars house in the seventies was
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one hundred thousand dollars exactly, so
that whole thing that well, the house
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is so much more expansive. Blah
blah blah. I'm not a I'm not
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sure that I'm a well because you
bought a house when they were one hundred
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thousands, so you can't really say
yeah. But I mean the idea is
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a five hundred thousand dollars house today
was three point fifty two or three years
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ago. People aren't making your income
with what you were making back in the
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seventies. People aren't making that in
relative terms to where the prices have increased
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over that period of time. You're
saying I should be making more than I
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was making in the seventies, when
I'm saying, no, you will make
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less. Now something's wrong here,
make less in real terms, in real
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purchasing power and real purchasing power terms. You've lost money, Yes, most
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people have. I feel very poor. We're not talking about you. We're
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talking about may No, Dave,
We're talking about the market as a whole.
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N all. Right, before we
go any further, I have disclaimer
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to read the show sponsored by the
Greenberg Financial Group and you can listen on
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seven to ninety kN SC or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different investment products and
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strategies. Every product in strategy have
some type of inherent risks, and we
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strongly encourage our listeners to properly understand
the risk to determine whether to buy,
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hold or sell. The show has
been on air for over thirty years.
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The green Briok Financial Group is registered
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and SIPIK. Visit our website at
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If you ever want to write a
Senate question, send it to contact
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at Greenberg Financial dot com. Nanks
Job, Thanks, Nanks Job, I
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appreciate it. The oil was unchanged
on the week. It had a nice
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runoff of the high sixties, low
seventies to eighty three eighty four dollars kind
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of kind of faded at the end
of that. We finished a week unchanged
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at eighty sixty. Gold's been on
fire, oh yeah, and of course
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gold moves inversely to answer, you
know it else has been on fire?
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Copper Yeah, it's been written lately. It's along with free Port mcmoor and
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I don't know what's going on there, but what's a copper mining company's probably
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why. Oh, I don't know
why the copper is going up. I
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suppose other than inflationary pressures across the
board and the belief that copper is being
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used in everything. Right, I'm
sure that there is. I think that
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it probably has something to play within. The EV is going pretty I think
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that copper is a good material that
needs to go into the EV batteries if
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I'm not mistaken. We have to
do some research on the supply and demand
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influences on that market. I had
a question this week from a client saying,
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why has oil increased from seventy two
dollars a barrel where it was a
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couple months ago to now round eighty
And my answer, which maybe Dave you
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have a different one, but it's
because the world is doing what the world
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normally does. Is in business.
It's moving things around, We have wars
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going on, it needs oil.
Everything is kind of running it back to
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full steam, right, So,
just in terms of the world it's needs
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and all the energy it needs,
it makes sense that it would trend higher
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until something goes offline. When I'll
drop from the mid eighties into the high
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sixties. We were shocked, really
because I mean, there was no reason
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for it to be dropping other than
and I think this plays a major role
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in it. The Chinese economy,
you know, it seems to oil seems
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to move based on what's going on
in China, and China does. Their
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imports and exports were higher last quarter
than they were in the in the previous
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quarter, which is leading some to
believe that that market made a bottom.
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Their real estate crisis is real,
though, and it's huge, and it's
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a big problem, and it's going
to weigh on that country for years.
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The nice part about their real estate
problem in lieu of what we had in
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Oa is what happened in Oait was
a very globally connected real estate problem,
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where this is really specific to the
Chinese region in Asia region, so it's
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not something where they're blowing up of
debt should really impact us too much across
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seeds compared to what happened in o
Way where it kind of destroyed the entire
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globe. One hundred percent agree with
that. Yeah, absolutely, you know,
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it's interesting. We still have the
yield inversion where the long term yields
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are lower than the short term meals
to ten year treasury four point two,
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while the two year treasury four point
six about a forty basis point inversion.
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I got curious during the week and
I started to look to see how long
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the inversion has been going on and
as compared to other inversions historically, and
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I was really surprised to find out
that the inversion started July fifth of twenty
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two. We know that it's been
a while while ago. Do you know
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that next week, if it continues
to be inverted, which it will,
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it will be the longest inversion ever. Wow, when was the last one
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in history? Nineteen seventy eight.
It was inverted for six hundred and twenty
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four days, And by next week
it will have exceeded that six hundred and
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twenty four days. Actually kind of
on my fingers, So it's gonna be
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the longest inversion of the yield curve
ever. And of course, what typically
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happens is the inversion of a yield
curve ends up going into a recession,
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and when the recession begins, generally
the yield curve rights itself, so it
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continues to be inverted even though most
talk of recession is off the table.
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I'm hearing very little recession talk at
all. They predicted, the yield curve
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predicted in twenty The Federal Reserve Open
Market Committee predicted based upon where the yield
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curve was, that in twenty twenty
three there was a sixty percent chance of
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recession. I guess we got the
forty percent right. There certainly was no
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recession last year, and not only
do we not see recession this year,
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but I'm seeing the Federal Reserve predicting
that the GDP is going to be stronger
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than we initially had thought. The
Federal Reserve has to get a reason to
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lower rates and they don't have one. They don't have one right now.
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They absolutely do not have one,
and I think ideally we don't want them
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to have one. Ideally, yes, because historically why they would is bad.
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Yeah, Historically they lower rates because
things are getting a little dicey.
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Yep, we kind of like it, like this new all time highs every
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week. When for those who don't
understand, like what the Federal Reserve is
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like, it was actually chartered by
Congress and it was given two mandates to
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follow and it has to follow those
two mandates. And that's why he does
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the semi annual testimony to Congress to
make sure that they're still following those two
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mandates. One of them is low
unemployment. The other one's low inflation.
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They have a low unemployment taken care
of like really good, they don't have
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low inflation. The only way to
fight inflation is to keep rates steady or
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to raise them, not to lower
them. Right for quarters after quarter after
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quarter, poll has said higher for
longer, and that's kind of where we're
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at now, higher for longer,
and we're starting to get used to these
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interest rates. These are becoming more
normal in our minds, and the real
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estate market is certainly not suffering from
concerns about higher rates at this point.
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Yeah, those realtors at the end
of last year just kept saying that there's
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going to be six rate cuts coming
into twenty twenty four. Yeah, be
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ready for buy house now, do
this and that. But I don't really
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know where they got it from,
because Powell really never had that rhetoric.
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He's always saying higher for longer,
We're not in a rush to cut rates
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this, and that we still have
our two percent inflation target and we're at
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four when they were saying that,
So I think they just kind of made
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it up. I think they're probably
having a tough time a little bit of
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hope, yeah, trying to get
some people in and so or said up
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most there's going to be three,
and realtors are saying, I think it's
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gonna be six. It's like if
they say they believe it. I don't
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really know where it came from.
One of the strongest drug is just hope
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them and I think it may be
suffering from a little case of opium.
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Bitcoin pull back a little bit,
Todd after just an incredible run. You
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said it would yep, and you
were right, yep. I mean,
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like I said, eight percent,
you think there's more downside to come.
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It seemed to have bottomed a little
bit on this one. But like I
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said that, most Bitcoin Bowl runs
have six or seven thirty percent drops in
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them, so it's a wild ride
to the top. I do think this
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is not the top of the ride, but it's a place to be cautious,
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right, a good place to maybe
if you were looking to enter,
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would be a time now to start
a little one to two percent position because
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it has come down off the seventy
three thousand I think was the top.
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It got to we didn't talk about
you and I both being in California last
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weekend, and I was there for
a seventh birthday party from my grandson.
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You were there running the Los Angeles
Marathon in a time that is fast enough
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probably to get you in the Boston
Marathon, we think so. Yeah,
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it was two minutes faster than last
year's cut off, so it should get
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me in average nine miles an hour
for twenty six miles. It's a very
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impressive. About hours and fifty three
minutes. Was that place six minutes thirty
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seven seconds? Yeah, I thing
like that. Yeah, that's a fa
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and I went to the bathroom in
between, he did. Yeah. I
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mean I'm not sure I could run
one hundred yards at that speed. No,
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if I run a mile and it's
under nine minutes, I'm happy with
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it. Oh yeah, good for
you, Todd. Yeah, ten I
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was ten is my ten is my
ten minute mile? I'm good with that.
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No, that's a for that for
twenty six point two miles. Congratulations,
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Thank you? Uh fantastic. Yeah, I know you trained hard for
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it, you deserve it, you
earned it. It didn't just happen,
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And those type of things don't happen. You know, every time I go
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to California, those of us who
don't live in California look at them as
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being a little strange, and every
time I go over there, it gets
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confirmed right that they are a little
strange. This time I came back with
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two interesting tidbits for you guys.
Have you ever heard the term house bath?
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They've heard of baby showers, right, wedding showers, or you've heard
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of bath houses. You ever heard
of a house bath? I don't think
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so. So the house bath is
the process whereby in California, friends gather
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at a home that has had some
type of trauma, whether it be a
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fire or flood of death, if
somebody fell down the stairs. It's this
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particular case I was they were talking
about the grandmother had fallen downstairs with a
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baby and put the baby in the
hospital. Turned out it was okay.
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But so so the house bath is
where everybody goes to this house and helps
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cleanse it of evil. It's California
thing. I don't know, but that
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you burn incense. You burn incense, Yeah, I'm sure they burned in
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sense path like magnets and suff like. The The other thing was, have
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you ever seen deionized water. Yes, you have, you've seen dionized water?
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Where have you seen it? It
was I think I was like a
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gas station in Phoenix. I was. I was in CBS, and here's
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you know, the distilled water in
this spring water and then this little area
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of deionized waters. I don't even
know what. I was curious, what
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does that mean? Okay, it
doesn't have ions in it? The iron
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eyzed water good to the ironized water
is oddly enough water with all of the
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ions removed in most places. In
most places, it's used in science experiments.
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But in California it was on the
shelf at CBS. I don't know
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what you do with. I don't
know what you do with. You can't
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drink it because it's very corrosive and
it'll it'll ruin your teeth. Perhaps you
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bathe in it. They're selling gowns, so I don't know. I don't
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know, but that's the California thing
house bath. And one of our listeners
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will tell us what the iroonized water. We don't have to worry. We
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00:16:41.960 --> 00:16:45.200
have very smart people that listen to
us. Behind somebody will call and say,
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00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:48.840
hey, here's here's why you would
we'll figure it out. Economy continues
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to grow. Uh in the hold
before you leave. I saw my cyber
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truck in person. Oh them really
driving down the street or yeah, right
250
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on the freeway, right next to
me. Look here you go. I've
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00:17:03.600 --> 00:17:06.640
got it. I've got a friend
in truck. Oh yeah, I've got
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a friend in I've seen one,
so they are delivering them. I saw
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one in San Diego. I got
a friend in Austin who believes he'll have
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his next week. It is when
you see it in person, It's one
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of those things that you don't know
how to feel about it. It's like
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something's different about this. I haven't
seen it before. It's just black one
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is a lot cooler than the silver
one. Oh yeah, you'd have to
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get black. The black would be
cool. Silver looks cheap and it's an
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00:17:33.279 --> 00:17:37.839
odd shape certainly, but anything that
involved in Elon's involved in is going to
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be unusual, right, did you
see Yeah? Speaking of Musk Neuralink,
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00:17:41.039 --> 00:17:47.279
their first chip implant, Guy can
now play chess online without moving. He
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00:17:47.599 --> 00:17:52.240
moves the pieces with his mind.
Crazy. That's first successful. That is
263
00:17:52.319 --> 00:17:56.599
insane. Test, that's unbelievable.
Yeah, he played chess by just thinking
264
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about it. Yep, it's the
computer is connected to it. So I
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wonder if you can get so you
could go could you go to work without
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00:18:03.960 --> 00:18:07.400
getting out of bit? Yeah?
Could we do that? We're already there.
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Could we do that? For with
the market opening up of six thirty?
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You know, I'm here before six
and I'm thinking there's many mornings.
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I think, yeah, I just
let me go to let my body go
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to work and I'll just stay here. Yeah, I don't think it works
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that way. You still got to
be still got physically be there for now.
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What are you gonna do now until
you go into the virtual reality with
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the Apple pro But so Google and
Apple were both in the headlines, and
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they were in the kind of the
headlines together, weren't they Apple. Well,
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00:18:33.240 --> 00:18:37.839
Google's had their anti trust Well,
yeah, they've got that hanging over
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00:18:37.880 --> 00:18:41.000
them still right, Yeah, but
the Apples. Google was was in the
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00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:45.960
news because of their partnership with Apple, with Apple over the new headsets.
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00:18:47.000 --> 00:18:55.759
Now, remember Google had a Department
of Justice sued Google over anti trust regulations
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00:18:56.119 --> 00:19:00.680
and the stock tanked like Apple did
on Thursday. And you look at it
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Google now, and it was a
few months ago. You look at Google
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00:19:03.519 --> 00:19:07.319
now you can't even tell on the
chart where that took place happened. And
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I think they jumped what ten bucks
on Monday? Yeah, they jumped on
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the news. Yeah yeah, I
mean well because aren't and aren't they trying
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to do uh they're using their AI
to go work with Apple because Apple doesn't
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want to do with their own.
But Apple's in the news because they just
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got slapped with a huge lawsuit by
the DJ just like Google. Yeah,
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00:19:25.799 --> 00:19:27.240
just like drop. I mean they
dropped four percent that day, but they
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came back a little bit. It's
gonna be like you're saying, it's probably
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00:19:30.400 --> 00:19:33.400
not gonna last long, but I
don't really. It is something to think
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about though, because it's talking about
the monopoly they have on phones, which
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my view is just they market better, well, yeah, make a better
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fun but not in no case.
Not only that, it's like you're you're
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giving the consumers a network effect of
you know, it benefits us if all
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of us at the office have Apple
phones, because we could all air drop
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to each other, we could all
do this that. And then you're saying
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that it's a monopoly, but it's
the same idea, like I just Samsung
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00:19:57.640 --> 00:20:02.000
has those same offerings where they can
you FaceTime, which is saying is an
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00:20:02.039 --> 00:20:03.880
issue that you can't do. You
can do air drop if you both have
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Samsungs. So it's the same idea. Apple's just better at it, and
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00:20:07.839 --> 00:20:11.799
they're mad that Apple's better at it
and people rather buy an iPhone, and
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00:20:11.839 --> 00:20:14.680
they're mad that Tim Cook said to
this one person that said, hey,
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I want to be able to FaceTime
my dad and I can't, he say,
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go buy an iPhone. They got
mad at that because he's gonna say,
304
00:20:19.160 --> 00:20:22.160
what, go buy a Samsung see
which, again, you can just
305
00:20:22.200 --> 00:20:27.119
get an app on your to still
do video chat. That was part of
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00:20:27.160 --> 00:20:30.839
the lawsuit that was quoted by Again, there's no case for the I think
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00:20:30.839 --> 00:20:36.640
a DJ hasn't won a single case
since Biden's gotten office, So they just
308
00:20:36.640 --> 00:20:38.799
take cases that look good on paper
because it gets some some brownie points with
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00:20:38.839 --> 00:20:41.480
their party, but it doesn't actually
do anything in the end. So this
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one, the only one that made
sense was about the apps, where Apple
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will just price gouget and just take
make too much money off the apps and
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00:20:48.119 --> 00:20:52.039
making money off this underneath and not
letting people have apps on there. Well,
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00:20:52.079 --> 00:20:55.880
that's a sense. That one made
more sense to have something with Epic
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Games, which is the creator of
Fortnites, which if I wanted to go
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00:20:57.839 --> 00:21:02.839
on my Apple Phone and purchase something
through Epic Game or from Epic Games,
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00:21:02.880 --> 00:21:06.480
I have to do it through Apple
Store. And for whatever reason, the
317
00:21:06.519 --> 00:21:08.720
DJ did not to prove of that. You know, they want to make
318
00:21:08.759 --> 00:21:12.119
it so I don't have to go
through this third party Apple. They get
319
00:21:12.119 --> 00:21:15.240
a fee of that and then sent
to Epic Games. Yeah, but what
320
00:21:15.279 --> 00:21:18.160
is the fact that they're getting in
trouble for making a better product is what's
321
00:21:18.480 --> 00:21:22.599
Yeah, exactly, Yeah, they
dominate the premiere phone. But they say
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00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:26.039
they're saying they have a monopoly.
That's what they're going after, saying Apple
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00:21:26.039 --> 00:21:27.640
has a phone monopoly. I was
like, pretty sure that anybody can make
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00:21:27.680 --> 00:21:30.599
a phone, they're just not making
it better than Apple. I just think
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00:21:30.640 --> 00:21:33.519
ultimately, you're taking value away from
the consumer, you know, no question.
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00:21:33.519 --> 00:21:34.680
And that's what Apple's argument is,
is like, you're just taking this
327
00:21:34.759 --> 00:21:40.160
away because they're saying the whole ecosystem, AirPods, Apple Watch, all that
328
00:21:40.200 --> 00:21:42.119
stuff, all the Apple Pay they're
saying it's in monopoly. It's like,
329
00:21:42.160 --> 00:21:45.279
oh, you don't have to use
it. I don't use Apple Pay.
330
00:21:45.319 --> 00:21:48.839
I have an iPhone. I don't
use it, but I can. Yeah,
331
00:21:48.880 --> 00:21:51.119
I like iPhone is better. It's
just a better product. In my
332
00:21:51.240 --> 00:21:56.880
eyes. People think Samsung products are
better, but it's ridiculous that they're portrayed
333
00:21:56.920 --> 00:21:59.880
it this way. The DOJ I
think, from an investing point of view,
334
00:22:00.079 --> 00:22:06.400
maybe take a page from Google's book
and the stock getting hammered by the
335
00:22:06.480 --> 00:22:11.720
lawsuit and then coming right back and
remember this lawsuit is going to take years.
336
00:22:11.319 --> 00:22:15.160
Biden may or may not be alive, he might not even be president.
337
00:22:15.359 --> 00:22:18.640
Who knows well it's and stuff like
this like Apple, I mean Google
338
00:22:18.680 --> 00:22:22.720
from a couple like a month ago
with Gemini, when they have that whole
339
00:22:22.960 --> 00:22:29.079
skewed towards the skewed AI think with
like showing George Washington being black and stuff
340
00:22:29.119 --> 00:22:33.599
like that, their stock dropped from
one fifty to one thirty back to one
341
00:22:33.680 --> 00:22:36.920
fifty a month later, like nothing
happened. Those You take those dips and
342
00:22:36.960 --> 00:22:38.799
that stuff like as a buying opportunity
because you know Google's going to figure out
343
00:22:38.799 --> 00:22:41.279
how to move forward from that.
This is a little blip, same with
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00:22:41.319 --> 00:22:45.000
Apple's That's what I'm saying. The
law street, Like I said, if
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00:22:45.039 --> 00:22:48.000
if Trump gets elected president, he'll
drop the suit and then that's the end
346
00:22:48.039 --> 00:22:49.720
of that. Yeah, and even
if he's not elected president, it's going
347
00:22:49.799 --> 00:22:52.839
to go on stuff like this.
Like it's not the same thing as a
348
00:22:52.880 --> 00:22:56.599
Boeing issues right now, always going
through a lot of issues, and those
349
00:22:56.599 --> 00:23:00.960
are different issues that take a lot
longer to fix. You've seen already once
350
00:23:00.000 --> 00:23:04.720
with Boeen also talking Boeing's down.
Air Bus is mad at them because now
351
00:23:04.799 --> 00:23:07.680
all they think about is are our
door is going to blow up? So
352
00:23:07.720 --> 00:23:11.480
they're thinking, oh, we have
to They're obsessing over it, is what
353
00:23:11.519 --> 00:23:14.799
their CFO is saying. Their stock
hit a fifty two week how today Bowing
354
00:23:14.799 --> 00:23:18.599
stocks are getting killed. The Boyne
stock, although Boyn stock did rally pretty
355
00:23:18.599 --> 00:23:22.839
good on Thursday and Friday, because
there's talk the aboarded directors is meeting with
356
00:23:22.960 --> 00:23:27.480
the top officers. Didn't invite the
president to the meeting. So one of
357
00:23:27.519 --> 00:23:32.319
the problems, one of the concerns, one of the criticisms of Boying is
358
00:23:32.319 --> 00:23:36.440
is leadership ship. And if you
were to get a new CEO, I
359
00:23:36.480 --> 00:23:38.480
think that Shock could be back above
two hundred very quickly. Well that's what
360
00:23:38.640 --> 00:23:42.720
spent since three m up like ten
percent that I'm think about a week ago.
361
00:23:44.119 --> 00:23:47.039
Yeah, I just love the idea
that, you know, the whistleblower
362
00:23:47.079 --> 00:23:52.200
for Boeing, you know, just
decided that he was gonna take his own
363
00:23:52.240 --> 00:23:56.519
life. Now weird, and then
it's well, they recorded he recorded something
364
00:23:56.519 --> 00:23:59.440
that sent to his friends and said, hey, if I die in the
365
00:23:59.440 --> 00:24:03.599
next few weeks or something, I
didn't do it. I didn't commit suicide.
366
00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:07.440
And then he does, and then
he committed suicide. Crazy a little
367
00:24:07.440 --> 00:24:11.079
weird. Oh man. Well,
we'll be back with segment two right after
368
00:24:11.119 --> 00:24:14.759
this break, and hopefully we'll all
still be here because we haven't blown the
369
00:24:14.759 --> 00:24:18.680
whistle on anybody. Right. Thanks
for listening to the Mighty Matter Show.
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We'll be right back. Welcome back
to the Money Matter Show. My name
371
00:24:22.880 --> 00:24:25.759
is Sebastian board C and I'm here
with Dylan Greenberg, Todd Glick Junior,
372
00:24:25.880 --> 00:24:29.240
and Dave Sherwood. Are you guys
doing on the Sunday morning? Good morning
373
00:24:29.279 --> 00:24:33.240
to Bastion, Good morning. I
mean this is recorded, so I'm going
374
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to California on this Sunday morning.
So we're gonna see if I see any
375
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cyber trucks or water or California things. Invite any house bath House bath Hey,
376
00:24:47.799 --> 00:24:52.359
one of the one of the stocks
that is seen as a good mirror
377
00:24:52.400 --> 00:24:56.400
of the global economy, and I
think rightfully so so is FedEx. They're
378
00:24:56.400 --> 00:25:02.880
involved pretty much in the global economy, all of the global economy. Jump
379
00:25:02.960 --> 00:25:07.480
twelve percent at the open end Friday
to a new fifty two week high after
380
00:25:07.519 --> 00:25:11.359
a strong quarterly report, and that
would indicate that that maybe the the rally
381
00:25:11.359 --> 00:25:17.119
that we've been watching, which has
literally been historic. I mean, it's
382
00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:22.440
just amazing. We're up twenty eight
percent from the end of October twenty eight
383
00:25:22.519 --> 00:25:25.599
percent. Do you think it was
obviously like the good earnings from FedEx or
384
00:25:25.640 --> 00:25:32.079
is it their five billion dollars share
buybacks? Share buybacks are meaningless because you
385
00:25:32.119 --> 00:25:36.359
don't have to do them. Well, you don't have to do this,
386
00:25:36.440 --> 00:25:38.559
you can you can offer they're authorized, but you don't have to do it.
387
00:25:40.240 --> 00:25:45.599
Yeah, But saying they're meaningless meaningless. Pardon they're meaningless to the extent
388
00:25:45.680 --> 00:25:48.279
that there is no requirement that you
actually do it. Okay, but if
389
00:25:48.279 --> 00:25:55.480
it's done, its authorized, making
its authorized rights. But they did it
390
00:25:55.759 --> 00:25:59.079
does make an impact. Oh,
if they were actually out there buying that
391
00:25:59.240 --> 00:26:02.720
kind of stuff. Absolutely, But
what I'm saying, is is does a
392
00:26:02.720 --> 00:26:07.119
stock rally on a share buyback?
I would say I would suggest it's not
393
00:26:07.200 --> 00:26:11.680
a major news item. That's all. That's all. Disney got a boost
394
00:26:11.720 --> 00:26:18.559
on Monday. They're in a big
proxy fight with Nelson Pels. Michael Iiger,
395
00:26:18.920 --> 00:26:25.400
the CEO of the company, got
the vote of George Lucash Star Wars.
396
00:26:25.480 --> 00:26:30.440
Lucas is the biggest Disney shareholder,
biggest individual. He's the guy who
397
00:26:30.480 --> 00:26:36.960
creates Star Wars. Disney shareholder exactly, and he said that he's going to
398
00:26:36.960 --> 00:26:41.000
support management. And it's interesting because
that was one of the under performing stocks
399
00:26:41.039 --> 00:26:47.039
last year. It's up twenty already
this year. Disney is and and it
400
00:26:47.079 --> 00:26:52.559
seems like the politics that they've been
under, the they've been under the weight
401
00:26:52.599 --> 00:26:56.200
of their political decisions, which they're
not pleasing to a lot of people,
402
00:26:56.599 --> 00:27:00.319
seems as though that's kind of kind
of pathing. And it would seem like
403
00:27:00.559 --> 00:27:06.839
they have a really interesting future because
of AI and the ability to create movies
404
00:27:06.880 --> 00:27:11.240
and TV shows. I was seeing
this one when we were up in Phoenix,
405
00:27:11.440 --> 00:27:15.400
Dylan nine dean to film TV shows, and the producer was telling me
406
00:27:15.480 --> 00:27:22.079
about this AI thing. I think
it's called munch dot Ai or uh No,
407
00:27:22.200 --> 00:27:26.119
that was the other one because it
was one of them. Because essentially
408
00:27:26.160 --> 00:27:32.279
what it does is it creates realistic
films by just you putting in a couple
409
00:27:32.279 --> 00:27:37.000
of like like what you did JGBT, Like create me uh a Japanese city
410
00:27:37.359 --> 00:27:41.640
while it's snowing at night in a
bustling city, and you just enter that
411
00:27:41.680 --> 00:27:45.359
and it will create a visual landscape
of that exact thing to the point where
412
00:27:45.359 --> 00:27:48.319
it looks like someone filmed it.
And so you get to the point where
413
00:27:48.319 --> 00:27:53.319
you can like make TV, make
anything by just AI creating it, because
414
00:27:53.319 --> 00:27:56.799
AI will get to the point where
it's so smart that it will know how
415
00:27:56.799 --> 00:28:00.839
to create better movies and TV shows
than the writers that they're paying right now.
416
00:28:00.200 --> 00:28:03.880
So then you think about all the
cost savings that Disney could see in
417
00:28:03.920 --> 00:28:07.880
the future and still have great products, still have great content. So you're
418
00:28:07.920 --> 00:28:12.279
saying that if your career is an
animator, you may want to be making
419
00:28:12.319 --> 00:28:15.839
a career change. Yeah. Well, I listened to this fascinating Google documentary
420
00:28:17.000 --> 00:28:21.880
over the week and talking about how
all these programmers that seem like they're getting
421
00:28:21.880 --> 00:28:26.200
a very futuristic job, which they
are, you realize in just five or
422
00:28:26.200 --> 00:28:27.839
ten years, you have an AI
that's going to be around that will create
423
00:28:27.880 --> 00:28:32.440
better code than the best expert coders
in the world a lot faster, and
424
00:28:32.480 --> 00:28:36.039
it will it will teach itself how
to get better too, right, and
425
00:28:36.079 --> 00:28:38.480
so it's not ever going to be
static. It will always improve on itself
426
00:28:38.480 --> 00:28:42.079
to the point where humanity will never
be able to catch up. So there
427
00:28:42.119 --> 00:28:45.920
are these certain jobs where they're going
to be lost, and I talked on
428
00:28:47.000 --> 00:28:49.119
other shows about that, about how
some of these jobs are going to disappear.
429
00:28:49.480 --> 00:28:53.799
I think number one on the list
was tax preparer. It makes sense,
430
00:28:53.960 --> 00:28:59.119
right, the job that's going to
dispe how much subjectiveness is there and
431
00:29:00.039 --> 00:29:03.759
permission, document and media. It's
pretty much pretty black and white. Yeah,
432
00:29:03.960 --> 00:29:07.559
whereas our field there is a lot
of values, visions. There's a
433
00:29:07.599 --> 00:29:11.319
different level of emotion that's put into
this, whereas in certain fields it's very
434
00:29:11.440 --> 00:29:17.359
black and white data input type of
thing. They go ahead, No,
435
00:29:17.400 --> 00:29:19.279
I was just gonna say, yeah, a lot of the data input jobs
436
00:29:19.319 --> 00:29:23.160
are gonna be taken away within the
next five absolutely. One of the one
437
00:29:23.200 --> 00:29:27.119
of the jobs that will not be
taken away is making burritos at Chipotle,
438
00:29:29.000 --> 00:29:33.160
and Chipotle was in the news and
boy did they ever rock the boat.
439
00:29:33.319 --> 00:29:37.240
You know, they've gained seventy three
percent in the last twelve months. To
440
00:29:37.319 --> 00:29:40.920
gain another eight percent of the open
on Wednesday to a new all time high.
441
00:29:41.119 --> 00:29:45.559
They announced a fifty for one stock
split. Fifty for one. It's
442
00:29:45.640 --> 00:29:49.440
one expensive stock. They needed it. Remember, it adds nothing to the
443
00:29:49.519 --> 00:29:52.519
value of the company, No,
but it makes it look a lot way
444
00:29:52.559 --> 00:29:56.079
more. It's going to go down
to roughly sixty dollars a share, yeah,
445
00:29:56.160 --> 00:29:59.680
and more attractive. A lot of
people can afford that. They can't
446
00:29:59.680 --> 00:30:02.960
afford. A lot of people can't
aford twenty eight hundred dollars a share unless
447
00:30:02.960 --> 00:30:04.519
they're buying like one. So now
if you're fifty dollars a share, you
448
00:30:04.559 --> 00:30:08.359
can buy an allocation part of it. I heard an interesting comment that it's
449
00:30:08.400 --> 00:30:14.799
also going to give them an entirely
different class of investor, which is kind
450
00:30:14.799 --> 00:30:18.720
of interesting and makes a lot of
sense. If you're a company and your
451
00:30:19.440 --> 00:30:26.039
stockholders are primarily institutional investors, that's
real different than if your stockholders are mom
452
00:30:26.079 --> 00:30:30.440
and pop and either It is funny
how we say, you know, it
453
00:30:30.480 --> 00:30:33.079
doesn't add any value, and that's
one hundred percent true. It does not
454
00:30:33.119 --> 00:30:37.200
add any value, but subconsciously to
the rest of the market, it makes
455
00:30:37.200 --> 00:30:42.240
it more valuable, which leads to
it being more valuable. Like the perception
456
00:30:42.400 --> 00:30:47.519
of it being cheaper brings the extra
value because, like you said, the
457
00:30:47.519 --> 00:30:49.559
new class of investors who would have
never invested it in otherwise. Sure,
458
00:30:49.759 --> 00:30:52.480
now we'll look at it, right, the retail investors. I wonder what
459
00:30:52.599 --> 00:30:56.039
it's going to do. The volume
that's probably just going to increase dramatically.
460
00:30:56.559 --> 00:31:00.400
Yeah, we have to increase fiftyfold
right in theory, right, fifty times
461
00:31:00.440 --> 00:31:04.480
as much volume. I wonder why
or what Chipotle's thinking on, Like why
462
00:31:04.559 --> 00:31:07.559
now you know? Is it because
we have a lot of other should have
463
00:31:07.559 --> 00:31:11.200
been two years ago. There's a
lot of other restaurant concepts that are coming
464
00:31:11.240 --> 00:31:14.559
out there that are kind of,
you know, the same again concept as
465
00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:18.680
Chipotle, kind of like Cava.
It's just a decision. It's it's just
466
00:31:18.720 --> 00:31:21.920
a CFO decision. I think each
CFO has a different, you know,
467
00:31:21.960 --> 00:31:23.200
opinion on when you should do it
and why you should do it, and
468
00:31:23.279 --> 00:31:27.039
then they may become more and more
rare. Stock splits used to be real.
469
00:31:27.079 --> 00:31:30.480
Normal stock got above one hundred,
you get split it right, Well,
470
00:31:30.480 --> 00:31:32.720
we I mean we saw Apple have
done it two or three times.
471
00:31:32.759 --> 00:31:34.759
Google's done it, you know,
Amazon's done it. So any of the
472
00:31:34.839 --> 00:31:38.079
high flyers eventually, I mean Costco
is going to do a stock split eventually,
473
00:31:38.240 --> 00:31:41.759
you would think, and it would
bolster their send Video doing one too
474
00:31:41.799 --> 00:31:45.519
once. If it gets over a
thousand, you'll probably see if it starts
475
00:31:45.559 --> 00:31:48.000
to slow down. I mean Amazon
even did it. They were over three
476
00:31:48.000 --> 00:31:51.240
thousand for a long time and they
finally split. It does it does get
477
00:31:51.240 --> 00:31:53.799
people excited, though. I mean
it's like adding a company to the S
478
00:31:53.839 --> 00:31:57.200
and P five hundred. Yeah,
a company like Chipotle is already seventy five
479
00:31:57.200 --> 00:32:02.799
percent for the last twelve months percent
on just that news, right, So
480
00:32:04.039 --> 00:32:07.200
imagine if and Video announced the split, Oh my goodness. Well, I
481
00:32:07.200 --> 00:32:10.359
mean remember Tesla when they announced their
first split. Yes, yes, it
482
00:32:10.480 --> 00:32:15.240
went right back up to where it
was. Yes. And Video their new
483
00:32:15.359 --> 00:32:21.279
announced their newest chip called the Blackwell, I mean thirty forty k y it's
484
00:32:21.279 --> 00:32:24.079
going to be forty k which is
not terribly different from the Hopper, which
485
00:32:24.119 --> 00:32:30.079
is their current ship. Blackwell is
replacing Hopper. Stock continued to bounce around
486
00:32:30.119 --> 00:32:34.839
after that announcement of it continued to
move higher, Fine, close the week
487
00:32:34.920 --> 00:32:38.759
higher. Get this, guys.
It closed higher for the eleventh consecutive week.
488
00:32:39.720 --> 00:32:44.319
Eleventh consecutive week, and video has
been higher. You go and if
489
00:32:44.359 --> 00:32:47.880
you go back to twelve weeks ago, it was down fifty cents, right,
490
00:32:49.160 --> 00:32:52.160
So if you take that out,
you're looking at fifteen consecutive weeks.
491
00:32:52.200 --> 00:32:59.200
And video is introducing robots like humanoid
robots are introducing AI nurse nurses. And
492
00:32:59.599 --> 00:33:02.279
I saw the video on it.
It's like you're looking at an iPad,
493
00:33:02.279 --> 00:33:06.759
you're talking to an AI bot,
but they're telling you everything you need to
494
00:33:06.799 --> 00:33:09.599
do, from what drugs to take, what your close level is, whatever,
495
00:33:09.640 --> 00:33:12.839
like all your levels and everything,
whether the health is you or not.
496
00:33:12.880 --> 00:33:14.920
And then they're like, we'll pass
all this on to the doctor.
497
00:33:15.480 --> 00:33:17.759
So it's like an intermediary but it's
a AI. So it's now it's taking
498
00:33:17.759 --> 00:33:21.559
away the nurses. Yeah, if
I could give people a little peek into
499
00:33:21.559 --> 00:33:24.119
the future. This podcast I was
listening to with the top Google designer of
500
00:33:24.160 --> 00:33:28.880
the AI team been in the AI
industry for over sixty one years. He
501
00:33:28.920 --> 00:33:30.079
said, it's a record, which
I thought was a really funny thing to
502
00:33:30.160 --> 00:33:35.079
bring up, Like you have a
record of being in an industry like anyways,
503
00:33:35.720 --> 00:33:40.000
this Google AI engineer is talking about
how in twenty twenty nine are healthcare
504
00:33:40.079 --> 00:33:45.400
the AI will help healthcare get to
the point where every year you live you
505
00:33:45.559 --> 00:33:47.839
essentially get a year back. So
right now, I mean, if you
506
00:33:47.880 --> 00:33:52.519
live a year, theoretically you should
lose one year off your biology life.
507
00:33:52.839 --> 00:33:55.119
Right but right now, with medical
advancements, every year we live, we
508
00:33:55.160 --> 00:34:00.599
actually only live lose about eight months
worth the biological life. He thinks by
509
00:34:00.640 --> 00:34:04.240
twenty twenty nine, your every year
you live, you're not actually aging at
510
00:34:04.279 --> 00:34:07.039
all, because that's all aging is. It's just the generation of cells.
511
00:34:07.079 --> 00:34:14.480
And theoretically you could always maintain a
body's health and keep a twenty year old
512
00:34:14.559 --> 00:34:19.079
twenty never have wrinkles show up because
that's all aging is, it's just death
513
00:34:19.119 --> 00:34:22.360
of cells. So theoretically, if
you never had those death of cells,
514
00:34:22.400 --> 00:34:25.840
you could always have this. And
that's what he's saying is AI would be
515
00:34:25.920 --> 00:34:30.639
with like these nurses being able to
know exactly before any doctor could ever know
516
00:34:30.760 --> 00:34:34.239
what you need to do, how
you need to do it, what meant
517
00:34:34.320 --> 00:34:37.719
to the t right. They said
that for this COVID vaccine, they were
518
00:34:37.760 --> 00:34:43.000
able to run a thousand stimulations of
all the different eminar in the codes that
519
00:34:43.039 --> 00:34:46.639
you could run, pick the best
ten, and then theoretically you could create
520
00:34:46.679 --> 00:34:52.079
biological AI machines that you could test
these vaccines on and have all the different
521
00:34:53.440 --> 00:34:59.920
impacts that the vaccine could give you, the side effects, the affection rate,
522
00:35:00.119 --> 00:35:05.039
the effective c rate, like everything
you could simulate with a biological machine
523
00:35:05.039 --> 00:35:09.719
that works the same way that human
would. You can replace everything. I
524
00:35:09.719 --> 00:35:15.360
mean, it is really fascinating with
AI and healthcare. It's fast merging of
525
00:35:15.360 --> 00:35:21.039
that. But my question to it
is the bias that is implemented within these
526
00:35:21.079 --> 00:35:23.760
AI systems. So to your points, like or let's talk about Google for
527
00:35:23.840 --> 00:35:29.400
a second. Remember they had the
Well, we're coming up on a break,
528
00:35:29.400 --> 00:35:30.840
so we'll talk about this more.
It's an interesting topic, but we'll
529
00:35:30.840 --> 00:35:32.960
come back coming up on a hard
break. So I gotcha. Don't want
530
00:35:32.960 --> 00:35:36.480
to speaks you up, Sebastian.
But we listened to The Money Matter Show,
531
00:35:36.840 --> 00:35:39.559
and we all appreciate you listening every
week and every Sunday. We'll be
532
00:35:39.639 --> 00:35:43.559
back after a quick little break.
You listen to the Money Matter Show.
533
00:35:50.880 --> 00:35:52.400
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Toglik. I'm here
534
00:35:52.440 --> 00:35:57.320
with Dylan Greenberg, David Sherwood,
and Sebastian Borsini. This week we had
535
00:35:57.320 --> 00:36:00.639
the down up two percent, the
S and P was up two point three,
536
00:36:00.760 --> 00:36:02.800
and as DEK was up two point
eight and the equal way it was
537
00:36:02.880 --> 00:36:07.639
up one point six. We were
talking a little bit before the break about
538
00:36:07.679 --> 00:36:12.440
AI, how the merging of AI
and healthcare fields can really be revolutionary for
539
00:36:13.119 --> 00:36:15.719
humanity of its source, because again, while I was saying this, Google
540
00:36:15.800 --> 00:36:22.039
engineer was talking about how eventually what
was being done with neurolink, when these
541
00:36:22.119 --> 00:36:27.199
chips keep progressing and the advancements of
these chips keep progressing and get smaller and
542
00:36:27.239 --> 00:36:30.400
smaller, he thinks that you don't
even need to necessarily have something that goes
543
00:36:30.440 --> 00:36:34.679
into the brain. You could have
something that just sits on the brain and
544
00:36:34.760 --> 00:36:40.000
interconnects that way. So that's the
point of contention, is whether you actually
545
00:36:40.039 --> 00:36:44.159
need electrodes to go into the brain
or you have something sitting outside of the
546
00:36:44.159 --> 00:36:47.760
brain that you could interface with.
But the idea is even something as simple
547
00:36:47.760 --> 00:36:52.719
as like losing an arm, you
could replicate and put back. And it's
548
00:36:52.760 --> 00:37:00.760
because you have the exact sequence and
theoretically your consciousness could be mapped. Your
549
00:37:00.639 --> 00:37:05.039
body, So you could have unlimited
deaths. Almost you die, you just
550
00:37:05.119 --> 00:37:07.760
your your consciousness upload to the drive. Think about all your photo is on
551
00:37:07.800 --> 00:37:10.960
your phone. If you lose your
phone, all you need is another phone.
552
00:37:12.000 --> 00:37:14.639
You can upload everything that's on this
phone to that new phone. Yep.
553
00:37:15.280 --> 00:37:19.920
So imagine that as yourself. You
lose your phone, you lose yourself.
554
00:37:19.960 --> 00:37:22.039
All your your your real self is
backed up to the cloud. You
555
00:37:22.119 --> 00:37:25.079
just re upload to a new biological
body. It's so hard to wrap your
556
00:37:25.119 --> 00:37:29.719
head around it is. And that's
the type of thing. But you realized,
557
00:37:29.840 --> 00:37:32.239
fifty years from now, we have
no idea what this world's going to
558
00:37:32.280 --> 00:37:36.639
look like now. We had no
idea fifty years ago. What I was
559
00:37:36.679 --> 00:37:39.840
saying earlier was about the biases that
are implemented into these AI systems. So
560
00:37:39.920 --> 00:37:44.320
my question is, you know what
if you have somebody that comes along that's
561
00:37:44.880 --> 00:37:49.800
inhumane and implements this bias and tries
to kill people. Yeah, where's the
562
00:37:49.840 --> 00:37:53.840
regulation for this? And not?
You know, I'm very against regulation for
563
00:37:53.880 --> 00:37:57.719
the most part, but this is
something that we should probably look into.
564
00:37:57.880 --> 00:38:01.000
Well, the problem with regulation is
your deal with regulators who don't know the
565
00:38:01.039 --> 00:38:05.199
problem a subjected right, Well,
no, No, they don't understand AI
566
00:38:05.280 --> 00:38:07.440
to begin with. They don't understand
the technology to understand what could possibly happen.
567
00:38:07.639 --> 00:38:12.960
They're not getting their information from developers. They're getting information from their political
568
00:38:12.960 --> 00:38:15.639
pundits, who also probably don't really
know what's going on. It's such a
569
00:38:15.679 --> 00:38:20.159
new field that barely the developers know
what's going to happen. In ten years.
570
00:38:20.239 --> 00:38:22.760
Yeah, it's one of the strongest
areas of growth is monitoring AI,
571
00:38:23.559 --> 00:38:28.360
policing AI. Yeah, it's a
huge area of growth because Elon Musk's talked
572
00:38:28.360 --> 00:38:30.760
about that. A lot is policing
the AI. But you're right, there
573
00:38:30.840 --> 00:38:32.920
is a lot of biases in AI. That's why we saw what happened with
574
00:38:32.960 --> 00:38:37.440
the Google Gemini, right, I
mean there's biases in AI, and that's
575
00:38:37.039 --> 00:38:40.559
that is the issue, right because
these ais are being quoted by humans.
576
00:38:42.039 --> 00:38:45.119
The thing that I think is going
to eventually get around it is AI teaches
577
00:38:45.159 --> 00:38:51.280
itself. Okay, so it knows, which is a little scary to a
578
00:38:51.360 --> 00:38:53.760
point, but we teach ourselves too, and at the end of the day,
579
00:38:53.800 --> 00:38:57.039
that's all it is. It's going
to be able to teach itself what
580
00:38:57.159 --> 00:39:00.320
is right or wrong. The interesting
I learned from this podcast. Though about
581
00:39:00.400 --> 00:39:04.880
chat shebte in these linguistic models is
they can't give you an answer that says
582
00:39:04.960 --> 00:39:07.239
I don't know. The AI doesn't
know how to say I don't know.
583
00:39:07.800 --> 00:39:10.800
It has to give you an answer, even if it doesn't have the right
584
00:39:10.840 --> 00:39:15.960
answer, it will find the best
possible answer. And that's why like these
585
00:39:15.000 --> 00:39:20.400
systems, they don't think they're truly
conscious yet because they don't understand not knowing
586
00:39:20.440 --> 00:39:22.800
something like they have to give you
an answer, which I thought was an
587
00:39:22.840 --> 00:39:28.039
interesting tidbit about the It is interesting, speaking of technology, one of the
588
00:39:28.559 --> 00:39:32.599
one of the worst performing stocks on
the market is Intel, and they're thankful
589
00:39:32.639 --> 00:39:37.679
that there's boing because of the thirty
doustocks. Intel, I think he's twenty
590
00:39:37.760 --> 00:39:42.679
ninth or twenty eighth. I guess
what. Point lost sixteen percent of its
591
00:39:42.760 --> 00:39:46.000
value this year. Did open higher
on Wednesday after the company was awarded as
592
00:39:46.079 --> 00:39:52.000
much as eight point five billion from
the White House as part of the Chipzack
593
00:39:52.079 --> 00:39:55.800
again trying to bring probably one of
the very few things Biden has done that
594
00:39:55.960 --> 00:40:00.880
is correct, Yeah, trying to
bring chips manufactur back to the United States.
595
00:40:01.000 --> 00:40:07.239
Yeah, and limiting some self to
other ones exactly. RBC Capital on
596
00:40:07.920 --> 00:40:12.719
Monday came out and also JP Morgan
said Intel is among a handful of companies
597
00:40:13.119 --> 00:40:19.800
that still have more room to run
as spending grows on artificial intelligence and investor
598
00:40:20.079 --> 00:40:24.079
optimism grows. Despite all that,
the stock finished the day lower. I
599
00:40:24.119 --> 00:40:28.199
was gonna say I finished a week
lower. I didn't think it moved much.
600
00:40:28.239 --> 00:40:31.440
It's just like nobody cares about how
big was that. Eight point five
601
00:40:31.519 --> 00:40:37.599
billion is what they awarded them.
There's apparently more to come. But wouldn't
602
00:40:37.599 --> 00:40:44.519
it be wonderful if the Intel could
one day wake up and understand what Nvidia's
603
00:40:44.599 --> 00:40:51.400
doing. You know, Intel has
just been there, our largest trip manufacturer,
604
00:40:51.840 --> 00:40:57.360
and they've just been left in the
dust at their own fault. Yeah,
605
00:40:57.360 --> 00:41:00.719
they didn't get into the GPUs right, and they stuck with the CPUs
606
00:41:00.760 --> 00:41:06.760
which is the computing and AI is
running on GPUs. So that's why No
607
00:41:06.840 --> 00:41:09.960
Video has the bad management back in
the day when they didn't switch over,
608
00:41:10.039 --> 00:41:15.119
it was the old it was.
It wasn't just didn't want to move.
609
00:41:15.159 --> 00:41:17.639
I think the next chip speak of
chips. Oh sorry, well, I
610
00:41:17.639 --> 00:41:22.519
was just going to say the next
thing after GPUs, which is a six.
611
00:41:22.719 --> 00:41:27.280
I think a six would be the
next big computing thing. AIX is
612
00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:32.400
a sneaker. It is, it
is. That's all I know about a
613
00:41:32.679 --> 00:41:37.679
What is an A six todd It's
just it's like a super computing chip,
614
00:41:37.760 --> 00:41:42.639
basically Acron going like to the super
an acronym. I assume ac acron.
615
00:41:43.199 --> 00:41:45.599
What do you got? I was
just gonna talk about Micron. They jumped
616
00:41:45.679 --> 00:41:47.920
eighteen percent. I was talking about
them, I think about a week and
617
00:41:47.960 --> 00:41:51.800
a half ago, just because they
said that they were going to start producing
618
00:41:51.800 --> 00:41:57.199
some chips for in video. Stock
jumps then about two or three percents.
619
00:41:57.239 --> 00:42:00.280
But they reported very good earnings this
time around and sucks up eighteen percent.
620
00:42:01.119 --> 00:42:07.239
The most interesting part about that report
is that the CEO of Micron in the
621
00:42:07.320 --> 00:42:17.000
conference call said he has never seen
the company this backlogged. Ever, the
622
00:42:17.079 --> 00:42:22.440
CEO's sounds a good thing to me, a very good thing. It was
623
00:42:22.480 --> 00:42:27.400
the best day for the stock in
thirteen years. Thirteen years Micron. I
624
00:42:27.440 --> 00:42:31.159
think Micron is still headquartered in Boise, Idaho. Interesting company. Yeah,
625
00:42:31.480 --> 00:42:39.559
and it's because chips, computer ships
are have been historically a commodity. They're
626
00:42:39.639 --> 00:42:45.519
very cyclical. Micron's business is very
cyclical. You get to an oversupply,
627
00:42:45.760 --> 00:42:50.800
right and then you run out a
supply before AI popped up. Remember,
628
00:42:50.800 --> 00:42:53.719
we were real short of chips back
coming out of the pandemic. Everybody had
629
00:42:53.840 --> 00:42:57.320
wanted to buy the chips, and
then all of a sudden we had more
630
00:42:57.320 --> 00:43:00.360
than we know what to do with. All these companies were falling because we
631
00:43:00.440 --> 00:43:05.800
had this over abundance of chips,
and now who knows where a computer ship
632
00:43:05.920 --> 00:43:08.599
is? What's in video doing?
Did you see in video ceo come out
633
00:43:08.599 --> 00:43:12.559
on Monday and you did some conference
or something. But I thought it was
634
00:43:12.559 --> 00:43:15.239
super funny because he's, you know, raising this chip up and it's you
635
00:43:15.280 --> 00:43:20.000
know, probably the size of my
palm, and it's worth fifty thousand dollars.
636
00:43:20.000 --> 00:43:22.119
It's just so crazy. Well,
I don't know this guy. The
637
00:43:22.199 --> 00:43:28.360
video CEO always wears a leather jacket. Like every single guys think about it,
638
00:43:28.360 --> 00:43:30.760
doesn't like jobs, the same thing, every presentation, everything that's on
639
00:43:30.800 --> 00:43:32.760
TV. He wore a black shirt
and denim. Yeah, and then you're
640
00:43:32.760 --> 00:43:36.960
gonna have people trading like, Okay, I'm gonna shorten video because he's wearing
641
00:43:37.000 --> 00:43:39.039
a red tie. You know,
just keep consistent what I'm doing, man,
642
00:43:39.559 --> 00:43:43.119
Right, Well, how about the
private equity gather wears the cowboy shirt.
643
00:43:44.159 --> 00:43:45.719
You know you don't have Oh,
the cow You can't think of it.
644
00:43:45.679 --> 00:43:50.000
You know, it's black and white
cowboy shirt. It's like something out
645
00:43:50.000 --> 00:43:52.480
of old Tucson. Are you talking
about the gun on the NBC? He
646
00:43:52.840 --> 00:43:55.719
appears on Shark Tank from time to
time. Oh no, I'm thinking of
647
00:43:55.760 --> 00:43:59.679
somebody. I can't think of the
guy's name, unfortunately, but he wears
648
00:43:59.679 --> 00:44:01.559
the cow You brought up commodities,
you know, one of the best performing
649
00:44:01.599 --> 00:44:07.400
commodities over the last year a copper. No, try again, I know,
650
00:44:07.599 --> 00:44:15.039
I know it too, that's all. Just think about it. Coco
651
00:44:15.239 --> 00:44:19.079
co Coco? Yeah, why who
knows? I'm just kidding. No,
652
00:44:19.159 --> 00:44:22.239
it's a supplying demand issue. Uh, the biggest producer of cocoa. What
653
00:44:23.480 --> 00:44:28.320
am I going to come up with
that? I I don't know. I
654
00:44:28.320 --> 00:44:39.800
don't know what you Coco is obviously
what they use for chocolate, and uh,
655
00:44:40.159 --> 00:44:45.719
coco is produced out of the Ivory
Coast, the largest producer of cocos
656
00:44:45.760 --> 00:44:49.199
out of the Ivory Coast in Africa. They're having problems with getting supply of
657
00:44:49.199 --> 00:44:52.840
coco out there, and which has
led to a two hundred percent increase of
658
00:44:52.880 --> 00:44:57.119
the price of cocoa over the last
year. It's up one hundred and seven
659
00:44:57.159 --> 00:45:02.119
percent year to day, and I
understand it. Hershey's it's gone. It's
660
00:45:02.119 --> 00:45:07.280
gone the exact opposite if a week, because everybody's taking those dampick and nobody's
661
00:45:07.280 --> 00:45:09.679
gonna eat chocolate anymore. But what
do we care about the price of coc
662
00:45:09.840 --> 00:45:13.480
you know, I was thinking about
the price of No it does matter because
663
00:45:13.480 --> 00:45:15.880
everything about her, She's like,
you can't only charge so much for a
664
00:45:15.960 --> 00:45:19.599
chocolate bar before. I'm not paying
for a chocolate bar, right, I'm
665
00:45:19.639 --> 00:45:22.280
not paying five bucks for chocolate bar. I might pay three, but I'm
666
00:45:22.320 --> 00:45:25.400
not paying five. But if your
price of cocoa just keeps increasing increasing,
667
00:45:25.480 --> 00:45:29.920
you're not getting those margins. Those
margins are getting, you know, squeezed
668
00:45:29.920 --> 00:45:32.800
pretty quickly. And which is I
think real the real reason Hers She's just
669
00:45:32.840 --> 00:45:37.679
going down. I mean, the
whole zempic thing. You could obviously here's
670
00:45:37.679 --> 00:45:40.159
your deal, But what happened to
Walmart? Walmart did the exact opposite started
671
00:45:40.159 --> 00:45:44.159
trending up after that, as I've
reports, So I really don't think about
672
00:45:44.159 --> 00:45:46.400
the ozembic. I think has the
more to do with cocoa prices just getting
673
00:45:46.559 --> 00:45:49.719
you know, killing their business model
right now, right, And it's not
674
00:45:49.800 --> 00:45:52.360
oil. Right, I don't need
chocolate. So, like you said,
675
00:45:52.400 --> 00:45:53.840
that's a great point. Yeah,
if it's five dollars, I'm not buying
676
00:45:53.840 --> 00:45:55.800
it. You know, I still
have to go get that six dollars.
677
00:45:57.719 --> 00:46:00.639
So next time you go buy some
chocolate, people check out those prices.
678
00:46:00.679 --> 00:46:04.280
And I guess to some people that's
a discretionary purpose. I think a lot
679
00:46:04.320 --> 00:46:10.480
of people eat choggling discretionarily. Beg
General General Mills. Right, General Mills
680
00:46:10.519 --> 00:46:14.559
one of the more boring stocks in
the market. Uh, it was the
681
00:46:14.599 --> 00:46:17.360
same price last week it was in
twenty sixteen. General Mills. Right.
682
00:46:17.960 --> 00:46:22.360
It has a three point five percent
dividend, which was attractive when rates were
683
00:46:22.480 --> 00:46:28.599
zero. Not that attractive anymore.
Stock rallied ten at the open on Wednesday
684
00:46:28.840 --> 00:46:31.559
on a better than expected reports,
but then gave the whole thing back as
685
00:46:31.599 --> 00:46:38.840
traders remembered it's General Mills. General
Are you kidding me? It's funny because
686
00:46:38.840 --> 00:46:42.320
when you said General Mills that kind
of I was like, oh my gosh,
687
00:46:42.320 --> 00:46:45.000
what where did you think I was
going with General Mills? I know,
688
00:46:45.199 --> 00:46:49.599
I just I don't even know what
the company knows. Cereal, you
689
00:46:49.639 --> 00:46:52.199
know what you mean. It makes
cereal. Yeah, it's like Kroger Big
690
00:46:52.239 --> 00:46:55.639
Cereal. Thought, I don't want
to invest in cereal. Yeah, now,
691
00:46:55.760 --> 00:47:00.440
cereals is a staping, all right, it's a staple because when the
692
00:47:00.480 --> 00:47:05.320
economy is good, you don't invest
in cereal, you don't invest in in
693
00:47:06.599 --> 00:47:09.239
a beer. It's a complete scam, is what cereal is? Cereal a
694
00:47:09.320 --> 00:47:14.599
complete scam on a mackerel? Yeah, come on, what do I need
695
00:47:14.639 --> 00:47:16.960
to eat this for calories? Okay? So what you eat food for?
696
00:47:17.400 --> 00:47:21.639
Okay? Well he looks at everything. I'm not sure what y'all have for
697
00:47:21.679 --> 00:47:27.320
breakfast, but Bashan clearly doesn't have
cereal. We thank you for joining us
698
00:47:27.599 --> 00:47:30.559
on this Sunday morning. We'll be
back with the second half of the show
699
00:47:30.599 --> 00:47:37.320
after this break again, thanks for
listening. Welcome back to the second half
700
00:47:37.400 --> 00:47:39.159
of the Money Matter Show. I'
Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Dave Sherwood,
701
00:47:39.159 --> 00:47:44.920
Toddle Junior, and Sebastian Borsini and
is enjoying a little golf tournament with
702
00:47:44.920 --> 00:47:49.239
his friends. Yeah, hopefully Tucson
is like winning sad right now? Hopefully
703
00:47:49.280 --> 00:47:52.239
I didn't get upset. But yeah, how I like Caleb Love, I
704
00:47:52.559 --> 00:47:55.880
want you at least get to the
Kentucky lost in the first round again,
705
00:47:55.920 --> 00:48:00.400
so that sucked. Wow, I'm
going for March Madness week. Yeah,
706
00:48:00.519 --> 00:48:04.239
what it's to the last three years
we lost the top three seed in the
707
00:48:04.239 --> 00:48:06.840
first round, so that's fun to
watch it. You were a three,
708
00:48:06.920 --> 00:48:09.599
we were at three seed fourteen,
and then two years ago we lost to
709
00:48:09.639 --> 00:48:13.960
Saint Peters as a two. We
were a two seed. So I don't
710
00:48:13.960 --> 00:48:15.079
know what's going on with coach col
but I don't know how much longer he'll
711
00:48:15.079 --> 00:48:20.320
be there. But well, well
for you now that lifetime contract. Yeah,
712
00:48:20.360 --> 00:48:23.400
we earlier, we record just on
Friday. Right now, we're in
713
00:48:23.440 --> 00:48:28.880
the halfway through. Arizona won the
first game and we'll hopefully Saturday they win
714
00:48:28.960 --> 00:48:31.440
the second game. And when you're
listening to this show, they're part of
715
00:48:31.440 --> 00:48:37.199
the Sweet sixteen YEP, which is
this team certainly is talented enough to be
716
00:48:37.239 --> 00:48:39.800
in the Sweet sixteen if they can
simply gel every now and then they just
717
00:48:39.840 --> 00:48:44.360
don't yel they look good. They
did look good. They looked the way
718
00:48:44.400 --> 00:48:49.280
they well playing Duke beating Duke at
Duke. That was like the second of
719
00:48:49.320 --> 00:48:51.559
the year. Yeah, but I
mean that's a long time Ago, but
720
00:48:51.639 --> 00:48:55.679
that's when you should be the roughest. I think this Arizona team really needs
721
00:48:55.679 --> 00:49:00.519
a good coach, and you see
really good coaches in the tournament. So
722
00:49:00.559 --> 00:49:04.320
we'll see how Tom Alloyd does.
Because Tommy Lows it seems like a good
723
00:49:04.320 --> 00:49:07.000
coach. He hasn't really done anything
turn the right he comes from the right
724
00:49:07.039 --> 00:49:10.360
place. It's done pretty mean.
Everybody wants Mark Few to be their coach,
725
00:49:10.400 --> 00:49:14.119
but Mark Fieu is very happy at
Gonzagas. We got the second best
726
00:49:14.159 --> 00:49:17.079
thing. We got Tommy Lay who
trained under Mark Field. So anyway,
727
00:49:17.119 --> 00:49:20.800
but going back to the markets,
for those users tuning in, the DOW
728
00:49:20.960 --> 00:49:22.440
is up two percent for the week, The S and P five hundreds was
729
00:49:22.480 --> 00:49:25.760
up two point three percent, the
NASDAK was up two point eight the Russell
730
00:49:25.800 --> 00:49:29.880
two thousand was up one and a
half percent, and the RSP, which
731
00:49:29.920 --> 00:49:31.920
is equal weight to to S and
P five hundred, was up one point
732
00:49:31.960 --> 00:49:36.800
six. The DOW, the NASDAK, the SMP, and the equal waited
733
00:49:36.960 --> 00:49:40.599
SMP all hit record highs on Friday. Yeah, yep, it was amazing.
734
00:49:40.719 --> 00:49:44.119
It's been It's been an amazing around. Like I said, Dow is
735
00:49:44.159 --> 00:49:50.320
pushing four thousand, forty forty thousand
and twenty eight percent. SMP is twenty
736
00:49:50.360 --> 00:49:53.960
eight percent off the October thirty first
low. It's a heck of a run,
737
00:49:54.280 --> 00:49:58.480
a historic run. I mean,
really, we haven't. I don't
738
00:49:58.480 --> 00:50:05.480
remember ever having all time high week
after week after week. I think last
739
00:50:05.480 --> 00:50:07.320
week we didn't have one, right, I think it was the Dow.
740
00:50:07.400 --> 00:50:10.920
I think the Dow hit a new
all time high last week, but the
741
00:50:10.960 --> 00:50:15.000
others didn't. And it's so rare, so rare to have a week where
742
00:50:15.039 --> 00:50:17.000
you don't have a new all time
high. Yeah, it's just you know,
743
00:50:17.079 --> 00:50:21.400
back in October, if you zoom
back to it, you realize we
744
00:50:21.440 --> 00:50:25.039
had an entire economy, entire system
where where sessions coming, we got to
745
00:50:25.079 --> 00:50:29.960
be scared, you know, bad
things could be happening. And ever since
746
00:50:30.000 --> 00:50:34.599
then, everything has just gone right. And plus you add onto this revolutionary
747
00:50:34.800 --> 00:50:37.039
change of what i AI could bring, and then everyone really buying into that
748
00:50:37.199 --> 00:50:45.079
idea, you have this complete like
we were so negative back in October that
749
00:50:45.639 --> 00:50:46.960
everything kind of just now we're on
the other side of it. Now we're
750
00:50:47.000 --> 00:50:51.760
just like super positive about everything.
And I think that's why you see this
751
00:50:51.840 --> 00:50:54.239
huge rally. Right, It wasn't
like we were coming from positive to super
752
00:50:54.239 --> 00:50:59.320
positive. We went from super negative
to the exact opposite side of the coin.
753
00:51:00.079 --> 00:51:01.199
Back in October, people were scared. I think four or five months
754
00:51:01.239 --> 00:51:06.000
ago, I said on the radio
show about a guy named Robert Oppenheimer,
755
00:51:06.039 --> 00:51:10.079
who's uh the chief global strategist for
Goldman Sachs and Goldman Sacks. People are
756
00:51:10.079 --> 00:51:14.960
pretty smart, pretty pretty smart group
of people. And he has said back
757
00:51:14.960 --> 00:51:20.400
then that this is this is AI
is a life changing deal. And he
758
00:51:20.440 --> 00:51:27.119
said this is this is likely to
produce a stronger economy for longer than most
759
00:51:27.159 --> 00:51:32.360
people expect. And right now he
seems to be right on target. And
760
00:51:32.400 --> 00:51:37.559
the uh it's so cool. They
said that the uh so, Google has
761
00:51:37.599 --> 00:51:42.079
an AI that has about four hundred
billion connections. A human brain has a
762
00:51:42.079 --> 00:51:45.199
trillion connections. So I think by
the end of this year they'll have the
763
00:51:45.199 --> 00:51:49.679
first AI machine that has more connections
than the human brain. That's just funny.
764
00:51:49.920 --> 00:51:52.400
About twenty twenty nine, that thinking
AI will have more connections than everybody
765
00:51:52.400 --> 00:51:58.480
combined in the world. Yeah,
it's phenomenal. And the Internet was the
766
00:51:58.519 --> 00:52:01.760
best and worst thing in the twentieth
century this centur I believe it's gonna be
767
00:52:01.760 --> 00:52:07.280
the I mean really like the Internet
both because they're like you say, we
768
00:52:07.320 --> 00:52:12.000
need to police it. It can
do so many bad things, but eventually
769
00:52:12.039 --> 00:52:15.480
we will merge with a human.
How many opportunities for evil with AI?
770
00:52:16.000 --> 00:52:21.760
Like anything? Right? I mean
more intelligence, more power brings. But
771
00:52:21.840 --> 00:52:23.280
I think it's a net positive.
There's a lot of bad that will come
772
00:52:23.320 --> 00:52:27.159
with it, but there will also
be a lot of good. Remember back
773
00:52:27.159 --> 00:52:31.679
in twenty twenty we had the the
spike and used car prices. Yeah,
774
00:52:31.719 --> 00:52:35.800
but that was because the chips right
shortage, Yeah exactly, but the use
775
00:52:35.920 --> 00:52:37.079
your use they there was no new
cars, right, so you had to
776
00:52:37.079 --> 00:52:40.360
buy used cars, and the used
car prices went through the roof. They
777
00:52:40.400 --> 00:52:44.840
have since come back to earth.
I was reading an interesting article last week.
778
00:52:44.960 --> 00:52:47.440
Prices have been steadily dropping since the
peak. According to the article,
779
00:52:49.440 --> 00:52:53.079
last year twenty twenty three, used
car prices dropped the most in history in
780
00:52:53.119 --> 00:52:58.239
one year, most they've ever dropped. Get this, here's the five biggest
781
00:52:58.280 --> 00:53:05.320
declining model of cars in twenty twenty
three. Number one the Nissan Leaf.
782
00:53:05.679 --> 00:53:07.960
Well, you can say, okay, that's going to be done away with.
783
00:53:08.320 --> 00:53:12.119
They're kind of rolling out of that. That's not going to be around.
784
00:53:12.239 --> 00:53:16.159
Must I understand that right. Number
two, the Tesla Model three dropped
785
00:53:16.280 --> 00:53:21.239
thirty and a half percent thirty and
a half percent one year. Number three
786
00:53:21.280 --> 00:53:28.159
the Shivy Bolt twenty eight percent.
Number four the Tesla Model X twenty six
787
00:53:28.199 --> 00:53:34.000
percent. Number five the Tesla Model
S twenty four percent. So of the
788
00:53:34.079 --> 00:53:38.000
five, three of them are Teslas. And what do all five have in
789
00:53:38.039 --> 00:53:44.960
common? They're all five electric vehicles
and just saying this is the top five.
790
00:53:45.159 --> 00:53:50.719
And what the five vehicles that declined
the most in value in twenty twenty
791
00:53:50.719 --> 00:53:55.400
three? How do they determine value
car vehicles? Though these are used?
792
00:53:55.559 --> 00:54:00.480
Are you saying they're used now because
they were purchased right, so they've declined
793
00:54:00.519 --> 00:54:05.000
from their purchase price by thirty Well, what you could go back into the
794
00:54:05.000 --> 00:54:07.840
market price and resell them for Well, you can go to because that's what
795
00:54:07.880 --> 00:54:10.760
they're saying, blue book and determine
the value. Because I'm just what I'm
796
00:54:10.760 --> 00:54:14.039
trying to say, I'm trying to
determine how they're saying the value. So
797
00:54:14.239 --> 00:54:16.679
from where you purchased it to where
you from where you could where you could
798
00:54:16.719 --> 00:54:22.679
have sold it in twelve thirty one
of twenty two to twelve thirty one or
799
00:54:22.719 --> 00:54:27.480
twenty three. Gotcha, the parts
dropped dropped so much? Well, I
800
00:54:27.519 --> 00:54:31.920
think a couple of reasons. Number
one, with the Tesla competition, there's
801
00:54:31.960 --> 00:54:36.000
so much more competition, But how
does that make your car less valuable?
802
00:54:36.960 --> 00:54:40.400
It makes Teslas more. Let me
give you an example. I got my
803
00:54:40.480 --> 00:54:47.960
Tesla Model Y back in June of
twenty three, really right at the peak,
804
00:54:49.199 --> 00:54:52.000
kind of right at the peak.
It was a fifty five thousand dollars
805
00:54:52.000 --> 00:54:55.679
car. That same car is now
thirty nine thousand. Wow, that same
806
00:54:55.760 --> 00:55:01.679
car, and I leased it because
I was concerned that would the increasing competition
807
00:55:02.280 --> 00:55:08.559
and the technological changes that the value
could drop. I did not get the
808
00:55:08.599 --> 00:55:14.199
seventy five hundred dollars rebate, right. I chose not to get that because
809
00:55:14.239 --> 00:55:19.119
the leisure doesn't get that, so
the Solar does not get the seventy five
810
00:55:19.679 --> 00:55:22.880
I thought to myself, I'll bet
you over three years it's going to drop
811
00:55:22.880 --> 00:55:27.440
more than seventy five hundred dollars in
value. It's dropped twice that in the
812
00:55:27.480 --> 00:55:30.880
last twelve months. But also part
of that value drop is because Tesla cut
813
00:55:30.920 --> 00:55:32.920
its prices twice already. And why
did they cut price? Why did they
814
00:55:32.960 --> 00:55:37.800
have to do that because But that's
my point is it's kind of debatable.
815
00:55:37.880 --> 00:55:40.760
Oh no, not debatable at all. Why would they cut the prices if
816
00:55:40.800 --> 00:55:44.159
they were? No, because if
we didn't have rates super high, there
817
00:55:44.199 --> 00:55:51.039
would still be plenty of demand.
No, absolutely no people could four straights
818
00:55:51.039 --> 00:55:54.079
are what's causing the slowdown in demand
for evs. This caused a slow down
819
00:55:54.159 --> 00:55:58.079
demand for solar, so why would
I have no impact on evs? The
820
00:55:58.119 --> 00:56:01.920
solars are totally different still financing though, Dave, it's still financing totally different
821
00:56:01.920 --> 00:56:06.760
equations. You're financing money that you
don't have. Higher rates make it harder
822
00:56:06.760 --> 00:56:09.400
to do it. Problem with that, sixty percent of evs are at least
823
00:56:10.000 --> 00:56:13.679
so the interest rates don't have as
much impact on the lit leak, but
824
00:56:13.719 --> 00:56:17.039
a payment if you're plus the people
that buy teslas are for the most part
825
00:56:17.039 --> 00:56:21.719
writing checks. I understand that we've
been over that as well, and and
826
00:56:22.000 --> 00:56:27.039
Elon knows that. So my thinking
is that what's brought the price. There's
827
00:56:27.519 --> 00:56:32.719
significantly more choice in evs now than
there was even a year ago. Even
828
00:56:32.719 --> 00:56:37.679
a year ago, Ribbans come out
with three new models, right Forge finally,
829
00:56:37.840 --> 00:56:43.320
but all these EV's should be coming
down in value equally. It doesn't
830
00:56:43.320 --> 00:56:46.400
make sense that those three out of
five are leading the way just because they're
831
00:56:46.400 --> 00:56:50.440
Tesla's. If there's more competition,
is should affect everything equally, well,
832
00:56:50.519 --> 00:56:55.679
Number one, Well not. They're
probably probably because they're more expensive. Yeah,
833
00:56:55.719 --> 00:56:59.360
that's probably why you say, like
they're just starting out a higher Yeah,
834
00:56:59.440 --> 00:57:02.920
that's it. Yeah, there's a
percentage. Wise it would be a
835
00:57:02.920 --> 00:57:07.599
bigger drop. And that's the only
thing I can think of there. Interestingly,
836
00:57:07.639 --> 00:57:09.480
though, the Model Why, which
is the one I have, has
837
00:57:09.519 --> 00:57:13.639
not dropped anywhere as near as much
as the Model three, the X and
838
00:57:13.679 --> 00:57:19.559
the S and the Model Y is
has become the number one selling electric vehicle
839
00:57:19.559 --> 00:57:24.199
in the world because it's an suv. People want SUVs. Well, that's
840
00:57:24.199 --> 00:57:27.480
as funny, Like they've cut the
price on that one too, Well,
841
00:57:27.519 --> 00:57:30.679
didn't They didn't lose as much value, didn't They just raise a price on
842
00:57:30.719 --> 00:57:32.400
a car. I don't know which
one. Yeah, I thought I did
843
00:57:32.519 --> 00:57:35.360
this. I did not see that. I did not see that. I
844
00:57:35.360 --> 00:57:38.079
didn't see it. And it was
a demand slowing like it is. The
845
00:57:38.159 --> 00:57:40.800
demand is still that one thing you
could increase the price for. It probably
846
00:57:40.800 --> 00:57:45.679
is like a cyber truck at this
point. The cyber truck is another game,
847
00:57:45.760 --> 00:57:46.440
isn't it. Yeah, I don't
see how you can. They can't
848
00:57:46.440 --> 00:57:50.880
produce enough rail, they don't have
a good manufacturing. It doesn't look like
849
00:57:50.920 --> 00:57:53.519
seven days ago Tesla to raise the
US prices for Model Y vehicles by one
850
00:57:53.519 --> 00:57:57.599
thousand dollars on April first. Model
Y there's the one, Like I say,
851
00:57:57.599 --> 00:58:00.760
it's the most popular selling EV in
the world. So you've got the
852
00:58:01.239 --> 00:58:05.559
Model three, the X, and
the S and the Hy. Those are
853
00:58:05.599 --> 00:58:08.599
the four Tesla models, right,
So three of them have dropped thirty percent
854
00:58:09.039 --> 00:58:13.440
and one of them has gone up. Well, I have the one that's
855
00:58:13.440 --> 00:58:17.039
gone up, but it's but it's
come down dramatically from what I would have
856
00:58:17.079 --> 00:58:20.840
paid for it. Like I say, fortunately at least it so I didn't
857
00:58:20.840 --> 00:58:23.559
get hurt quite as bad. But
it's kind of interesting. I like your
858
00:58:23.599 --> 00:58:28.159
thinking on that too, and why
at least you know, it's as a
859
00:58:28.159 --> 00:58:32.280
fear of you know, the technology
becoming more obsolete and cheaper prices down the
860
00:58:32.320 --> 00:58:36.639
road. Yeah, I mean,
it didn't take much for me to imagine
861
00:58:37.119 --> 00:58:40.320
six months from now a technology that
would make the Tesla like a five year
862
00:58:40.360 --> 00:58:45.599
old cell phone. That's good.
Nobody would want that, right. And
863
00:58:45.760 --> 00:58:47.960
I think one of the reasons too, is that happened to me. Had
864
00:58:49.039 --> 00:58:54.599
I owned a Mercedes Sedan when Lexus
came out, and the price of that
865
00:58:54.639 --> 00:59:00.800
Mercedes Sedan dropped twenty five percent literally
overnight. The value of that Mercese and
866
00:59:00.840 --> 00:59:05.199
Dan draft twenty five percent literally overnight, because everybody wanted the new girl,
867
00:59:05.280 --> 00:59:08.679
the new girl in town, right
the Lexus. And so I think I
868
00:59:08.719 --> 00:59:12.760
was in the back of my mind
of thinking that's that's going to happen again,
869
00:59:13.239 --> 00:59:17.239
or could happen again. I didn't
know. But it happened exactly as
870
00:59:17.320 --> 00:59:21.800
I was, as I had feared. I didn't predict as I feared.
871
00:59:22.639 --> 00:59:27.079
So that's the way, That's the
way I must interesting day in retail on
872
00:59:27.159 --> 00:59:34.280
Friday, to reports Lulu Lemon up
sixty percent in the last twelve months,
873
00:59:34.280 --> 00:59:37.320
although it was lower this year.
It's been lower this year. Opened down
874
00:59:37.480 --> 00:59:45.079
seventeen percent on Friday after reporting a
solid quarter but declining demand in North America.
875
00:59:45.159 --> 00:59:51.039
Lulu Lemon great company, could be
an opportunity. I think it's an
876
00:59:51.039 --> 00:59:52.920
opportunity. No, I think it's
an opportunity too, And I mean Sebastian
877
00:59:52.920 --> 00:59:57.239
and I were talking about that on
Thursday before the earnings, and he was
878
00:59:57.280 --> 01:00:00.119
saying, so, I didn't know
that lu Lemon's start to get it to
879
01:00:00.239 --> 01:00:04.079
like college campuses with their logo,
the college logo and everything, and like
880
01:00:04.360 --> 01:00:07.000
cos kids love Lulu. I mean
it's expensive, but they're going to buy
881
01:00:07.000 --> 01:00:08.760
it still because it's confie and especially
when you could go to the U of
882
01:00:08.760 --> 01:00:13.159
a bookstore and put it on your
burser and try to you know, tell
883
01:00:13.159 --> 01:00:15.400
your parents to pay for it exactly. And when they start get into all
884
01:00:15.519 --> 01:00:20.159
college campuses like Manes too, that's
gonna be good for them. They're also
885
01:00:20.199 --> 01:00:23.599
expanding into men's clothing more than they
have been. They have they have had
886
01:00:23.639 --> 01:00:27.840
men's clothing, not a lot,
but some, but they've gotten way more
887
01:00:27.880 --> 01:00:31.280
interested in that. Got a lot
more friends now as well with uh Lulu
888
01:00:31.320 --> 01:00:36.119
stuff. Sure, and it's acceptable. They're loving it and I can fit
889
01:00:36.199 --> 01:00:37.679
in it, so I don't buy
it, but they're loving it. Similar
890
01:00:37.800 --> 01:00:43.039
similar thing happened with Nike. Nike
moved eight percent lower at the open on
891
01:00:43.079 --> 01:00:46.079
Friday after reporting a strong quarter,
but the strong quarter was due to cost
892
01:00:46.159 --> 01:00:52.719
cutting, UH slowing sales because of
these increased competitions, causing the concern,
893
01:00:52.840 --> 01:00:55.880
especially to slow down in China.
But think about sneakers. Nike is not
894
01:00:55.920 --> 01:01:01.360
really the cool kid in town.
Uh yeah, jordan Is. Jordan's are
895
01:01:01.400 --> 01:01:06.159
cool. They are definitely. Yea. All I see out there are hookahs
896
01:01:07.519 --> 01:01:14.920
and shoes you're on, Dave.
That's not that's not cool. Go anywhere.
897
01:01:14.920 --> 01:01:16.599
That's just casual. To a high
school. You won't see polka in
898
01:01:16.639 --> 01:01:20.000
there. Really, you go to
high school, you might see a couple
899
01:01:20.000 --> 01:01:22.280
of honors, but for the most
part, they're Jordan's. So the Nike
900
01:01:22.440 --> 01:01:28.679
Air, Jordan's that's always in the
huge. In fact, I bet you
901
01:01:28.679 --> 01:01:30.880
you can find more like new balanced
shoes, like that's starting to get cool
902
01:01:30.880 --> 01:01:35.960
again, like some weird sketchers and
things. But when I worked some Converse
903
01:01:36.000 --> 01:01:39.239
high tops and then the girls,
the girls still wear that. The girls
904
01:01:39.239 --> 01:01:42.840
wear that, the Converse. I
go back to another time, back,
905
01:01:43.320 --> 01:01:45.440
going back to when I was in
high school. You go to a high
906
01:01:45.480 --> 01:01:49.920
school, it's Fans and Jordan's.
That's the predominant shoe in high schools is
907
01:01:49.960 --> 01:01:54.960
the Vans or Jordan's. I'm either
Vans or Jordan's. Yeah, a lot
908
01:01:55.000 --> 01:02:00.440
of kids we coach have Jordan's and
the Vans and some have y's too,
909
01:02:00.440 --> 01:02:04.239
like Regulent, No, Cross are
big two because huge. So why would
910
01:02:04.280 --> 01:02:09.400
you say the Nike demand is dropping
China? I guess that's about Starbucks too.
911
01:02:09.960 --> 01:02:13.840
And it was like China is just
killing these companies. Yeah, and
912
01:02:13.880 --> 01:02:16.599
you don't and like you don't know
exactly what's going on over there's no transparency
913
01:02:16.639 --> 01:02:20.639
at all, well transparency, but
you're trying to rely on China because it's
914
01:02:20.679 --> 01:02:23.039
either the biggest market or the second
biggest market for those two companies. US
915
01:02:23.119 --> 01:02:25.239
is number one and two. They've
switched. I mean you're talking about a
916
01:02:25.239 --> 01:02:29.360
billion people. It's going to impact
your business model a little bit exactly.
917
01:02:29.599 --> 01:02:31.000
You've got that open. I mean
they open a new Starbucks what every twelve
918
01:02:31.000 --> 01:02:34.800
hours, every nine hours over in
China, But you don't know what's going
919
01:02:34.800 --> 01:02:37.599
on with it because maybe Lucking Coffee's
taken over more of a stronghold than you
920
01:02:37.639 --> 01:02:40.639
think, which is a native Chinese
company that rivals Starbucks. Yeah, as
921
01:02:40.639 --> 01:02:44.079
I was saying, like here in
the US, we can look at the
922
01:02:44.119 --> 01:02:46.519
Starbucks. We know it's lines around
the corner every day every day. It's
923
01:02:46.559 --> 01:02:49.599
not going anywhere. Do you like
it or not? You're gonna go to
924
01:02:49.639 --> 01:02:52.320
Starbucks. But do we know that's
just what it's looking like in China.
925
01:02:52.159 --> 01:02:55.079
I have no idea. What do
we know what's going on China? What
926
01:02:55.360 --> 01:02:59.239
are they're you know, what do
they like to drink for coffee? And
927
01:02:59.280 --> 01:03:05.320
what you are seeing is weakness in
Starbucks, weakness in Nike win Resorts,
928
01:03:05.760 --> 01:03:12.440
right, who has a big presence
in Macau, and the weakness in Ali
929
01:03:12.480 --> 01:03:15.880
Baba. Yeah, but Ali Baba's
a Chinese company, Know what I'm saying.
930
01:03:15.920 --> 01:03:19.840
Those three companies all have big exposure
to China, Ali Baba more so
931
01:03:20.000 --> 01:03:22.719
than the other two. But all
three of those are struggling, which tells
932
01:03:22.760 --> 01:03:30.360
you that Chinese housing problem is bigger
than their want. That doesn't seem to
933
01:03:30.400 --> 01:03:34.719
be struggling is Pinduo Duo PDD,
which is the parent company of that new
934
01:03:34.760 --> 01:03:38.280
craze, Timue. That price action
off the earnings this week was crazy.
935
01:03:38.400 --> 01:03:43.360
Yeah, talk about that event.
They absolutely killed it on earnings, Timu.
936
01:03:43.400 --> 01:03:45.760
Again, I'm sure a lot of
people saw it on the Super Bowl
937
01:03:45.800 --> 01:03:49.559
commercials. I think they spend more
than anyone else on Super Bowl commercials,
938
01:03:49.559 --> 01:03:52.800
which is pretty crazy. They killed
it on earnings, did super good on
939
01:03:52.840 --> 01:03:58.119
a quarter four and the stock popped
like twenty five right off the bell and
940
01:03:58.159 --> 01:04:00.840
then open the day at one fifty
and then traded all the way back down
941
01:04:00.920 --> 01:04:04.320
to basically where it opened. And
uh, I mean if you look at
942
01:04:04.320 --> 01:04:10.239
this weekly candle, I mean you're
talking probably thirty points a spread and there's
943
01:04:10.239 --> 01:04:13.960
no price action. I mean it
closed where it started, so it is
944
01:04:14.039 --> 01:04:15.760
shot away up and then the same
day shot all the way back down.
945
01:04:15.800 --> 01:04:19.239
I can't figure out what investors were
doing selling it when they killed it on
946
01:04:19.280 --> 01:04:25.039
Earth, like absolutely destroy any expectations. So I'm trying to figure out why
947
01:04:25.400 --> 01:04:29.000
then it reversed back. But Tam
who's been doing really well, and like
948
01:04:29.119 --> 01:04:32.400
Dylan said, it's one of the
few stocks in China that has done well,
949
01:04:32.559 --> 01:04:36.159
definitely has done better than Baba over
the same sort of e commerce type
950
01:04:36.199 --> 01:04:41.880
of play. But it's a super
weird price action. I've never never seen
951
01:04:41.920 --> 01:04:45.480
it. Alibaba dot Com and try
to buy something I've gone right right,
952
01:04:45.559 --> 01:04:48.519
yeah, because I mean Ali Baba's
I'm going to Amazon if I'm going to
953
01:04:48.559 --> 01:04:51.199
got Amazon, Yeah, but Timu's
cheaper, so you go to Timu,
954
01:04:51.400 --> 01:04:59.119
right. I did knockoffs, that's
good stuff. Nos, Yeah, you're
955
01:04:59.119 --> 01:05:01.000
gonna get worse but you can buy
a pair of shoes for eight dollars.
956
01:05:01.000 --> 01:05:02.840
Well, let's put it this way. I asked me a year and then
957
01:05:03.239 --> 01:05:06.679
Dave like soap dispensers from my house, right right, I can get them
958
01:05:06.679 --> 01:05:10.239
at Walmart. I can get him
for four bucks on team though. It's
959
01:05:10.239 --> 01:05:14.760
the same quality, like I got
it. It's great quality. But it's
960
01:05:14.800 --> 01:05:17.119
just there's certain things where you don't
necessarily care what brand. I don't care
961
01:05:17.119 --> 01:05:20.599
what my soap. I don't care
what my plunger, what brand my plunger
962
01:05:20.679 --> 01:05:24.320
is, I don't know. So
there's certain items where you truly don't care
963
01:05:24.320 --> 01:05:27.079
about brands. You just give me
the cheapest and as long as it does
964
01:05:27.280 --> 01:05:29.519
what its job is, come cool
with it. Also, if you go
965
01:05:29.559 --> 01:05:30.760
on the app, they'll give you
they'll try to give you like three or
966
01:05:30.800 --> 01:05:34.719
four bonuses, like here's this free
item. Oh yeah, it's a little
967
01:05:34.719 --> 01:05:38.320
annoying. They really try to get
you a lot of deals. But I
968
01:05:38.320 --> 01:05:41.880
mean you would have to think that. You know, there's some high schoolers
969
01:05:41.920 --> 01:05:44.480
or whatever age people out there.
I don't like it, but I get
970
01:05:44.519 --> 01:05:48.000
it. Yeah, I get Where
did this stuff come from? I probably
971
01:05:48.079 --> 01:05:55.159
sweat, Probably child labor, child
labor like a week to get here.
972
01:05:56.559 --> 01:06:00.400
It takes about five seven. It's
coming day with Amazon. Oh yeah,
973
01:06:00.519 --> 01:06:02.360
even here in too soon. And
the people who drop it off. I
974
01:06:02.360 --> 01:06:05.639
saw it one time. It was
like rule shipping. It's not even like
975
01:06:05.639 --> 01:06:09.840
a UPS or a FedEx. It's
like, it's weird. But yeah,
976
01:06:09.880 --> 01:06:12.159
it's cheap because they use child labor. So I mean, if you really
977
01:06:12.480 --> 01:06:15.199
care about ethics, you probably wait, wait, wait, do you know
978
01:06:15.280 --> 01:06:17.840
that? Well, there's a lot
of reports. There's a lot of reports.
979
01:06:18.159 --> 01:06:20.239
Do I know for sure? No, I've never seen a sweatshop.
980
01:06:20.280 --> 01:06:23.840
I've never seen a child labor.
I don't know for a ninety nine it
981
01:06:23.880 --> 01:06:28.639
seems pretty true. We had our
first social media IPO this last week.
982
01:06:28.760 --> 01:06:34.280
Nike did first one since twenty nineteen. Reddit price to thirty four dollars a
983
01:06:34.360 --> 01:06:40.400
year open to forty seven, jumped
to fifty seven. Interestingly, this is
984
01:06:40.400 --> 01:06:45.039
the interesting part. Eight percent of
the shares were set aside for people that
985
01:06:45.519 --> 01:06:48.760
were active on the site, have
been for years, right, and for
986
01:06:48.960 --> 01:06:54.559
the majority of them didn't take it. Really, Yeah, how weird is
987
01:06:54.599 --> 01:06:58.199
that? I mean it's got to
be an interesting, a little different type
988
01:06:58.199 --> 01:07:01.239
of crowd there. You know,
Airbnb did that too. I didn't realize
989
01:07:01.239 --> 01:07:06.000
that they people who were doing airbnbs
before they went public for years they offered
990
01:07:06.000 --> 01:07:10.960
them stock at a cheaper price and
before My thing about you wouldn't take the
991
01:07:11.000 --> 01:07:15.559
ipo Why wouldn't you? Yeah,
I think about Reddit is I've never actually
992
01:07:15.559 --> 01:07:16.920
been like, I don't have the
app. Okay, if I go on
993
01:07:17.000 --> 01:07:20.119
Reddit, it's the website. Yeah, it's through their browser. How do
994
01:07:20.199 --> 01:07:26.480
you monetize this? Yeah? Right, I mean there's no ads. There's
995
01:07:26.480 --> 01:07:28.719
no ads on Reddit. Though it's
the only thing that they're going to be
996
01:07:28.719 --> 01:07:30.960
able to do. They have to
add it on. But that's the thing
997
01:07:30.039 --> 01:07:33.840
is, like you don't I've never
understood how Reddit makes money because they don't
998
01:07:33.840 --> 01:07:39.880
have ads. It's just community based. And so I don't, well the
999
01:07:39.960 --> 01:07:43.519
value six point five billion when all
of the social media worth like a hundred
1000
01:07:43.559 --> 01:07:45.239
billion, right, But like,
how do they make money in the front?
1001
01:07:45.920 --> 01:07:50.280
They must make money because they're CEO, certain certainly, but it just
1002
01:07:50.320 --> 01:07:55.039
doesn't I can't see it unless you
guys have an idea of a different business
1003
01:07:55.039 --> 01:07:58.239
model. But it seems like ads
is kind of what you have to do.
1004
01:07:58.320 --> 01:08:01.239
I mean, yeah, have to
be it, right. It something
1005
01:08:01.239 --> 01:08:04.639
really fascinating happened to me this past
week. I was at a safe way
1006
01:08:04.639 --> 01:08:10.280
at Campbell and Prints, and they
have all brand new shopping carts. They're
1007
01:08:10.320 --> 01:08:13.880
black, they're gorgeous, they roll
the way they're supposed to, I mean,
1008
01:08:14.039 --> 01:08:15.680
and they're all lined up. I
mean, it is beautiful. I've
1009
01:08:15.680 --> 01:08:18.720
never seen anything like it, all
brand new shopping carts. And I said
1010
01:08:18.720 --> 01:08:20.960
to the manager, I said,
wait till the Hobos get a hold of
1011
01:08:21.000 --> 01:08:26.199
this. You know, he's easier
going to fly out of here. He
1012
01:08:26.279 --> 01:08:28.920
said, no, they're not.
I said, tell me about it.
1013
01:08:29.000 --> 01:08:31.840
He goes, if they go more
than one hundred yards from the store,
1014
01:08:32.039 --> 01:08:36.640
they lock. That's not something new
you know about that. I know it's
1015
01:08:36.640 --> 01:08:40.560
not. I've never heard of it. Really, yeah, I mean,
1016
01:08:40.600 --> 01:08:43.520
you see shopping carts all over town, so obviously they're not thing. For
1017
01:08:43.640 --> 01:08:46.119
years though it's not around here.
What do you know, whoson takes a
1018
01:08:46.159 --> 01:08:49.520
while for technology to get I've never
heard of it. And I was going
1019
01:08:49.560 --> 01:08:53.439
to say, you see shopping carts
all over town where the Hoble is running
1020
01:08:53.439 --> 01:08:57.960
around, so obviously it hasn't been
adopted here because nobody's talking about it.
1021
01:08:58.199 --> 01:09:00.279
There's a select few stores that do
I know it does up in over Valley.
1022
01:09:00.920 --> 01:09:03.279
They do. They have it,
They have the lock. It's really
1023
01:09:03.279 --> 01:09:06.880
smart, isn't it. Yeah,
I've told a half dozen people by nobody
1024
01:09:08.000 --> 01:09:12.239
ever heard of it. Man,
things you get excited about, No,
1025
01:09:12.319 --> 01:09:17.439
I think I think the technology that
little interesting. More technology to be excited
1026
01:09:17.439 --> 01:09:23.279
about this. I'd like to find
automatic locking that works up the problems we
1027
01:09:23.319 --> 01:09:26.640
have. That's one of the biggest
problems we have in this country, shoplifting,
1028
01:09:28.359 --> 01:09:30.159
right, and panhamm, How we're
going to fix it? And panhamm,
1029
01:09:31.039 --> 01:09:33.039
that's not how we're going to fix
it. How we're going to fix
1030
01:09:33.119 --> 01:09:36.359
this? The Amazon palm? Yeah
right, we talked about a week.
1031
01:09:36.960 --> 01:09:41.760
Yeah, remember, yeah, how
do we fix it? We already know
1032
01:09:41.800 --> 01:09:44.439
how to. We can just print
money and give it, but we don't.
1033
01:09:44.439 --> 01:09:46.680
We just give it to other countries
instead. Yeah, that's true.
1034
01:09:46.760 --> 01:09:48.920
That's true. Like we said last
a couple of weeks ago, we know
1035
01:09:48.960 --> 01:09:51.840
there's not life on other planets.
If there were, we'd be sending them
1036
01:09:51.840 --> 01:09:57.720
money. Clearly. Clearly, there's
no speaking of that. I got a
1037
01:09:57.760 --> 01:10:00.640
little fun fact. See, how
long do you think until the pennies are
1038
01:10:00.880 --> 01:10:04.920
just they stop making pennies and it's
not making nickels, because how much do
1039
01:10:04.920 --> 01:10:09.000
you think it costs to produce a
penny? Oh, I know this fact.
1040
01:10:09.199 --> 01:10:15.319
It's it's I believe it's it's six
cents for every one penny? Twelve
1041
01:10:15.399 --> 01:10:19.640
cents three? Yeah, he's right, it's like two point seven for penny.
1042
01:10:19.640 --> 01:10:24.000
How much do you think it is
to produce a nickel? Well,
1043
01:10:24.479 --> 01:10:29.560
seven seven cents, but it's a
different commodity. It's not twelve, just
1044
01:10:29.640 --> 01:10:33.239
over ten. But then I heard
the dimes the most expensive one to produce?
1045
01:10:33.880 --> 01:10:35.680
Is that right? I didn't see
that one. I just saw this
1046
01:10:35.800 --> 01:10:40.159
article was talking about pennies and nickels, and they's double the price. That's
1047
01:10:40.359 --> 01:10:42.199
so I feel like at one point
we're just gonna get rid of that.
1048
01:10:42.800 --> 01:10:45.359
Yeah, I know. I think
just a few weeks ago, I had
1049
01:10:45.520 --> 01:10:47.119
used to have this. I have
this coin yard right, and we'd put
1050
01:10:47.159 --> 01:10:49.359
you know, you put all your
coins in right, and then event every
1051
01:10:49.359 --> 01:10:53.680
now and then you take it to
the supermarket and throwing the thing, you
1052
01:10:53.680 --> 01:10:57.880
know, count it for me and
and I didn't even know where it is.
1053
01:10:58.079 --> 01:11:00.479
I have one in my bathroom.
I think it probably got like fifty
1054
01:11:00.479 --> 01:11:02.399
bucks worth of it. I just
never take it. I don't ever get
1055
01:11:02.479 --> 01:11:05.920
change. Yeah, I ever used
very rarely. I get changed and I'll
1056
01:11:05.960 --> 01:11:08.800
just put it in there, but
I forget to always take it in.
1057
01:11:09.039 --> 01:11:11.600
Very rarely I use cash, but
if somebody tries to give me a change,
1058
01:11:11.600 --> 01:11:14.119
I'm usually just I just say keep
it. You know, I don't
1059
01:11:14.119 --> 01:11:17.000
need the sixteen cents back. I'm
okay, yeah, are you okay rounding
1060
01:11:17.000 --> 01:11:21.159
it up for Ronald McDonald? You
are you okay rounding up for yes?
1061
01:11:21.359 --> 01:11:26.119
Whatever? Yeah, it does.
It does because I just try to say
1062
01:11:26.119 --> 01:11:28.199
that once. They're like you want
to round it up? And I was
1063
01:11:28.199 --> 01:11:30.680
like yes, and they're like,
okay, well we only accept cash if
1064
01:11:30.680 --> 01:11:38.520
you round it up. Yeah,
Like what do you kin? Day,
1065
01:11:39.640 --> 01:11:44.960
that's kind of interesting when you get
a right we'll be having Dave Handleby joining
1066
01:11:45.000 --> 01:11:46.800
us from All American Lending tell us
a little bit about what's going on in
1067
01:11:46.840 --> 01:11:51.479
the real estate market. We thank
you for joining this on this March Madness
1068
01:11:51.920 --> 01:11:56.560
Sunday morning. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the Money Matter Show.
1069
01:11:56.600 --> 01:12:00.439
This is Dave Sherwood. I have
Sebastian Borsini, I have Glick,
1070
01:12:00.479 --> 01:12:05.359
I have Dylan Greenberg and Dave Hann
special guests special guest Dave Hanne. Dave
1071
01:12:05.399 --> 01:12:10.840
hand owns All American lending with his
wife mother. They are in our building.
1072
01:12:11.880 --> 01:12:17.000
They have done every virtually every mortgage
that any of us have ever wanted
1073
01:12:17.039 --> 01:12:23.119
to do, from purchase money,
mortgages to refinance. David is actually not
1074
01:12:23.199 --> 01:12:27.000
a stranger to the show. There
was a time we were talking about earlier
1075
01:12:27.039 --> 01:12:30.199
in the week, back in the
day, when Dean was doing this by
1076
01:12:30.279 --> 01:12:32.119
himself and had to be out of
town, and he said to Dave,
1077
01:12:32.159 --> 01:12:35.760
here's the keys, you do it. That was quite a long time ago.
1078
01:12:36.159 --> 01:12:41.439
That was a long different decades.
But you have absolutely done the show
1079
01:12:41.680 --> 01:12:46.399
by yourself. Yes, for two
hours or whatever whatever it was. Dave,
1080
01:12:46.439 --> 01:12:50.439
what give us a synopsis of what's
going on in real estate lending.
1081
01:12:50.800 --> 01:12:55.880
Well, we've had we've had uptick
and purchases in the last three weeks.
1082
01:12:55.880 --> 01:13:00.399
People have adjusted to where rates are. They've been much more comfortable now that
1083
01:13:00.119 --> 01:13:05.319
purchase money, especially on primary residents, have registrates have come down below seven.
1084
01:13:06.079 --> 01:13:10.560
So we're seeing anywhere from six and
five eighths to six and seven eights
1085
01:13:10.560 --> 01:13:13.840
depending on down payment, fycal score, et cetera. You and I know
1086
01:13:13.920 --> 01:13:15.600
the term purchase money, like it's
second nature. What does that mean.
1087
01:13:15.720 --> 01:13:21.000
That means if you're purchasing a piece
of real estate and calling it your primary
1088
01:13:21.039 --> 01:13:26.000
residency, that's where the best rate
is. We do quite a bit of
1089
01:13:26.520 --> 01:13:31.359
investment property purchases, and they've come
in quite innovative programs. If you don't
1090
01:13:31.359 --> 01:13:35.399
have tax returns, you can use
bank statements. If it's an investment property
1091
01:13:35.920 --> 01:13:40.920
that cash flows, we can do
really just an appraisal with a schedule of
1092
01:13:40.960 --> 01:13:44.800
rents, which means if you have
a good credit rating, you have a
1093
01:13:44.880 --> 01:13:49.399
driver's license, and we get an
appraisal that has a schedule of rents that
1094
01:13:49.560 --> 01:13:54.319
shows that the rental income is more
than your proposed payment is. Lenders will
1095
01:13:54.359 --> 01:13:58.600
give you a loan with that little
documentation. I can hear someone out there
1096
01:13:58.600 --> 01:14:00.920
saying, here we go, here
we go. Active the way it was
1097
01:14:00.960 --> 01:14:04.119
before the housing crash, this is
all a big house of cards and it's
1098
01:14:04.119 --> 01:14:06.920
going to fall apart. No,
no, far from that. Why would
1099
01:14:06.960 --> 01:14:12.600
that not be true, Dave,
Because the mortgage implosion in two thousand and
1100
01:14:12.640 --> 01:14:17.319
eight, there were a lot of
much more looser programs. There were programs
1101
01:14:17.319 --> 01:14:24.359
that were not scrutinized by lenders.
There were appraisals that were inflated. There
1102
01:14:24.359 --> 01:14:30.239
were programs that had negative amortization.
They had stated income programs where if let's
1103
01:14:30.279 --> 01:14:34.720
say you were a janitor and your
legitimate income was twenty five hundred a month,
1104
01:14:35.560 --> 01:14:41.960
you could state your income as twelve
thousand a month and they would lend
1105
01:14:42.000 --> 01:14:47.159
with as little lower credit scores five
to eighty to one hundred percent of purchase
1106
01:14:47.199 --> 01:14:51.399
price. So all those wacky programs
are out. Some of the more creative
1107
01:14:51.439 --> 01:14:58.840
programs are not for the primary residents, but more for investment properties, and
1108
01:14:58.880 --> 01:15:06.720
there's still credit score criteria, down
payment criteria, which were non existent in
1109
01:15:06.760 --> 01:15:11.800
that at that period of time back
in eight nine. Also, the difference
1110
01:15:11.920 --> 01:15:15.159
is people that have investment properties have
more than one asset in a real estate,
1111
01:15:15.319 --> 01:15:19.039
right, because that's the whole idea
of it. Right. So again,
1112
01:15:19.119 --> 01:15:21.640
if you're buying a first time home
buyer, which is a lot of
1113
01:15:21.640 --> 01:15:26.560
these eight programs were four. When
they default, they got to go bankrupt,
1114
01:15:26.600 --> 01:15:29.479
which means there's nothing for the bank
to go after either, which that
1115
01:15:29.560 --> 01:15:32.119
led to the whole you know,
domino effect of what we saw into the
1116
01:15:33.159 --> 01:15:35.920
more importantly, when you were a
first time home bar or a first time
1117
01:15:35.920 --> 01:15:41.920
home bar. People weren't educated in
terms of the process of buying a home
1118
01:15:42.079 --> 01:15:45.039
or what the adjustable rates, how
does that impact you two years down the
1119
01:15:45.159 --> 01:15:50.239
line. There was no criteria in
terms of having to explain that to the
1120
01:15:50.279 --> 01:15:55.279
bar or unfortunately there were, or
in some cases even proving your income,
1121
01:15:57.000 --> 01:16:00.520
like you were just saying, I
have this income, and that's just we
1122
01:16:00.600 --> 01:16:02.279
never did many of those loans.
That's maybe why we're still in business.
1123
01:16:03.319 --> 01:16:09.039
But it's very important to us to
have the buyer understand what they're buying,
1124
01:16:09.159 --> 01:16:12.479
how they're buying, what the correct
here is, what's going to cost them
1125
01:16:13.760 --> 01:16:16.319
on a monthly basis, and you
really don't want to go into a first
1126
01:16:16.399 --> 01:16:23.000
time purchase and be married to the
house and have just the maximum amount of
1127
01:16:23.119 --> 01:16:27.800
payment possible to qualify because we go
off of gross income, not net income,
1128
01:16:28.520 --> 01:16:32.520
So it's very important for us to
explain the difference and really looking at
1129
01:16:32.520 --> 01:16:38.479
what you bring home on a monthly
basis net cash wise cash flow versus what
1130
01:16:38.520 --> 01:16:43.560
you can qualify. Many people can
qualify for more than they're comfortable with or
1131
01:16:43.600 --> 01:16:49.279
should be comfortable with. You had
mentioned a while back that you're starting to
1132
01:16:49.319 --> 01:16:56.159
see more and more people looking to
refinance. Even though rates are higher than
1133
01:16:56.199 --> 01:17:00.439
they have banned, they are still
historically pretty normal, might even be at
1134
01:17:00.439 --> 01:17:06.039
the low end of normal based upon
my well, based upon your age.
1135
01:17:06.880 --> 01:17:11.840
I mean, because we're talking about
looking at interest rates going back into the
1136
01:17:12.920 --> 01:17:15.800
you know, mid fifties, well, the seventies and the eighties, they
1137
01:17:15.800 --> 01:17:19.039
were in the eight percent was very
even got below eight that was good,
1138
01:17:19.119 --> 01:17:23.079
and then they got up to you
know, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen.
1139
01:17:23.880 --> 01:17:30.640
So historically we are lower than maybe
the average over the last eighty years,
1140
01:17:30.760 --> 01:17:35.680
but recently, in most people's minds, they're still high. However, if
1141
01:17:35.720 --> 01:17:38.880
you want to look at a line
of credit, if you want to,
1142
01:17:39.000 --> 01:17:44.199
let's say, keep your three percent
first mortgage, and you're now into quite
1143
01:17:44.239 --> 01:17:47.159
a bit of credit card debt,
and you're looking at those payments or monthly
1144
01:17:47.239 --> 01:17:50.399
interest rates on your statements and they're
all twenty three, twenty four to twenty
1145
01:17:50.439 --> 01:17:54.920
six percent. It's hard for people
to get their arms around it and make
1146
01:17:54.920 --> 01:17:58.439
any headway. And they're looking at
what can I get a home equity line
1147
01:17:58.439 --> 01:18:03.680
of credit? And historically we said
sure, But where rates are right now
1148
01:18:03.880 --> 01:18:09.199
prime is at eight and a half
percent, and any lender's going to add
1149
01:18:09.720 --> 01:18:13.359
at least three to three and a
quarter percent margin on that. So now
1150
01:18:13.399 --> 01:18:17.720
you're looking at eleven and three quarters, possibly twelve percent depending on your credit
1151
01:18:17.720 --> 01:18:21.680
score on a line of credit.
Really, So having said that, it's
1152
01:18:21.680 --> 01:18:26.760
a lot better than your twenty six
or twenty eight percent on your credit cards.
1153
01:18:28.159 --> 01:18:30.800
So some people are looking at that
saying, maybe I'll do that for
1154
01:18:30.840 --> 01:18:32.720
the time being, and when rates
come back down, then I'll combine them,
1155
01:18:32.720 --> 01:18:35.840
and I can swallow maybe a five
and a half percent thirty or fixed
1156
01:18:36.479 --> 01:18:41.079
and then combine the current first with
the home equity line of credit. We're
1157
01:18:41.079 --> 01:18:45.359
seeing some of that. We're also
seeing quite a few people going, well,
1158
01:18:45.359 --> 01:18:47.239
maybe I'll just take a six and
a half or six and three quarters
1159
01:18:47.279 --> 01:18:53.840
thirty or fixed right now, pay
everything off because equity is a lot of
1160
01:18:53.840 --> 01:18:57.079
people still have the value. I
mean, our values have not really gone
1161
01:18:57.079 --> 01:19:00.319
down, they've slightly, they've gone
up continuously for the period of I don't
1162
01:19:00.319 --> 01:19:04.600
know, four to five years now, the value being of our assets,
1163
01:19:04.560 --> 01:19:09.720
of the estate, of our real
estate in Arizona specifically, we're still in
1164
01:19:09.800 --> 01:19:15.079
high demand. There's still low inventory, respectively, because a lot of people
1165
01:19:15.119 --> 01:19:18.039
don't want to put their house on
the market with a three percent mortgage they
1166
01:19:18.079 --> 01:19:21.119
currently have and looking at US six
and a half to a seven percent if
1167
01:19:21.159 --> 01:19:27.479
they want to upgrade, move up. Maybe when I was doing real estate
1168
01:19:27.520 --> 01:19:32.319
loans back in the seventies, appraisers
always gave me fits. And I'm just
1169
01:19:32.359 --> 01:19:38.800
thinking, in this environment where real
estate prices have gone up so much and
1170
01:19:39.720 --> 01:19:45.119
homes in desirable areas are getting multiple
bids still, according to my real estate
1171
01:19:45.119 --> 01:19:50.479
friends, what kind of issues are
you having with the praisers. It depends
1172
01:19:50.520 --> 01:19:58.600
on the location. I just had
a current client by a house make an
1173
01:19:58.600 --> 01:20:02.359
offer on a house in Prescott.
It was accepted at five ten. The
1174
01:20:02.399 --> 01:20:08.840
appraisal came in at forty five wow, twenty five thousand below list price.
1175
01:20:10.199 --> 01:20:14.840
The seller agreed and adjusted the new
purchase price down to for eighty five.
1176
01:20:15.159 --> 01:20:17.840
Really, so we're seeing some of
that depending on the location. Huh.
1177
01:20:18.319 --> 01:20:21.560
If you have a desirable house that
had multiple offers, that's not gonna happen
1178
01:20:21.600 --> 01:20:27.119
real And this is in Prescott,
this is not in the Foothills. Each
1179
01:20:27.159 --> 01:20:30.159
appraiser works on a different formula too, but for the most part, if
1180
01:20:30.199 --> 01:20:32.680
you don't have comps, which is
the predominant way they do appraisals, how
1181
01:20:32.680 --> 01:20:35.439
do you do it? Well?
It is subjective too, exactly. If
1182
01:20:35.439 --> 01:20:39.159
there's not a lot of comps out
there, then it's completely subjective, all
1183
01:20:39.279 --> 01:20:43.920
right. Whereas if you're in a
place like Tempe and there's so many homes,
1184
01:20:44.000 --> 01:20:46.279
it's kind of harder to be subjective. But in at Prescott area,
1185
01:20:46.279 --> 01:20:49.439
it's there could wear comps and I
haven't seen it just came in. It
1186
01:20:49.479 --> 01:20:54.560
came in today. But and there
is criteria that an appraisal has to abide
1187
01:20:54.560 --> 01:20:58.319
by. There has to be some
adjustments in terms of the proximity to the
1188
01:20:58.359 --> 01:21:01.680
subject properties location. At the same
time, the appraisal still has to put
1189
01:21:01.680 --> 01:21:06.399
it into QC quality control and the
lender has to review it or the lender's
1190
01:21:06.399 --> 01:21:11.760
appraisal management company is what we use
now before it gets released to the actual
1191
01:21:11.840 --> 01:21:15.199
value. So it did go through
some scrutiny before it came through, and
1192
01:21:15.279 --> 01:21:19.560
everybody agreed that that was a justifiable
price based on today's current conditions. So
1193
01:21:19.720 --> 01:21:27.119
it does happen, it just doesn't
happen often. What is the appraisal process?
1194
01:21:26.359 --> 01:21:31.600
If someone comes in and makes application
with you, you submit the loan
1195
01:21:31.640 --> 01:21:35.000
to the I would you know,
Dave Sherwood comes in, takes application.
1196
01:21:35.520 --> 01:21:41.439
I we agree on the program in
which lender I'm going to use, I
1197
01:21:41.920 --> 01:21:46.000
submit you for approval, then into
underwriting, you get approved and of course
1198
01:21:46.039 --> 01:21:50.159
get disclosed, and at that point
we order the appraisal. And when I
1199
01:21:50.279 --> 01:21:56.520
order the appraisal, it is up
to the lender's appraisal management company. The
1200
01:21:56.560 --> 01:22:01.119
appraisal management company will then take the
order your credit and they'll submit it to
1201
01:22:01.359 --> 01:22:08.520
their appraisers as a new report,
and an appraiser will pick up that report
1202
01:22:08.760 --> 01:22:13.319
for the agreed price, which I
won't know who that appraiser is. I'm
1203
01:22:13.359 --> 01:22:15.680
not allowed to talk to them.
Yeah, do these lenders have their own
1204
01:22:15.680 --> 01:22:19.359
appraisers name they have an appraisal management
company, So they all have their own
1205
01:22:19.359 --> 01:22:27.920
appraisal management companies who have multiple appraisers
listed as ten ninety nine employees under those
1206
01:22:28.359 --> 01:22:33.239
appraisal management companies. So you would
so each each lender would have their own
1207
01:22:33.239 --> 01:22:38.359
appraisal management company that would have so
set out a bill. You can't have
1208
01:22:38.439 --> 01:22:42.920
three different lenders using the same appraisal
management company. You can, or could
1209
01:22:42.960 --> 01:22:46.840
you? You can? There's multiple
appraisal management companies and typically each lender will
1210
01:22:46.840 --> 01:22:51.159
have a list of approved appraisal management
companies that are available to them, so
1211
01:22:51.239 --> 01:22:57.199
I can prove I could. I
could pick from eight nine ten different appraisal
1212
01:22:57.239 --> 01:23:00.680
management companies that are on a drop
down from the lenders approved list. How
1213
01:23:00.680 --> 01:23:04.279
do you choose which one one that
I've got to report, one that will
1214
01:23:04.319 --> 01:23:09.479
answer the phone, that I can
understand their platform, that it's easily accessible
1215
01:23:09.479 --> 01:23:13.399
and they communicate. And obviously,
like you said, you're not allowed to
1216
01:23:13.479 --> 01:23:16.720
talk to the praiser to their adventures
there. Right, it didn't used to
1217
01:23:16.760 --> 01:23:18.960
be. I mean I dealt with
him for years, twenty years, but
1218
01:23:19.000 --> 01:23:24.000
now I can't because of the because
of the mortgage implosion and the new DoD
1219
01:23:24.079 --> 01:23:27.800
Frank. Yeah, you're right,
the appraisers. Actually, when I was
1220
01:23:27.840 --> 01:23:31.119
working with a lender, they praisers
were in house employees. Yes, that's
1221
01:23:31.159 --> 01:23:34.880
when I worked at the bank.
That's not the case anymore. No,
1222
01:23:35.119 --> 01:23:39.000
Dad, you do something you or
No. I'm just saying we're coming up
1223
01:23:39.039 --> 01:23:42.159
onto a break, so I think
would you look like you had something to
1224
01:23:42.159 --> 01:23:45.520
say other than that. No,
I wanted to give a time for If
1225
01:23:45.560 --> 01:23:47.279
you want to get in touch with
Dave Hand, you can give us a
1226
01:23:47.319 --> 01:23:51.079
call at five two zero five four
four four nine zero nine will get you
1227
01:23:51.119 --> 01:23:56.960
in touch with Dave. He's not
coming to our event that we're having on
1228
01:23:57.000 --> 01:24:00.920
April second, but he is always
a good sort of information. So if
1229
01:24:00.960 --> 01:24:02.119
you just want to pick his brain
about anything going on in the industry,
1230
01:24:02.319 --> 01:24:04.279
please don't fit. Give us a
call. We'll get you in touch with
1231
01:24:04.359 --> 01:24:09.680
him. If you're getting a mortgage
from someone other than All American Landing,
1232
01:24:10.000 --> 01:24:12.920
you're paying too much. Thanks Dave, Dave, thank you for your time.
1233
01:24:12.960 --> 01:24:15.680
We appreciate it. One of our
buddies, Dave Hand, All American
1234
01:24:15.760 --> 01:24:17.640
Landing, Thanks for having We'll be
right back. Welcome back you. Listen
1235
01:24:17.680 --> 01:24:20.439
to the final segment of the Money
Out of Show. I'm Dylan Greenberg.
1236
01:24:20.640 --> 01:24:26.000
We just had Dave Sherwood or sorry, we're here with David. Yeah.
1237
01:24:26.119 --> 01:24:29.760
Dave Hand from All American Lending on
great mortgage lender. He's been in the
1238
01:24:29.800 --> 01:24:32.039
business for about thirty years. Now
give him a call if you ever have
1239
01:24:32.119 --> 01:24:34.760
questions about that. He can get
you a good price. But what we're
1240
01:24:34.880 --> 01:24:40.239
leading into was the April second event. We have a market Outlook event over
1241
01:24:40.279 --> 01:24:45.039
at Lappaloma Country Club on April second
from twelve pm to three pm. It's
1242
01:24:45.039 --> 01:24:48.119
gonna be everything from our market outlook
to we're gonna have estate planners there.
1243
01:24:48.159 --> 01:24:53.680
We're gonna have accountants there from the
Johnson Group, state planners Jonathan Sabilia,
1244
01:24:53.920 --> 01:24:56.920
and then we're gonna have the new
host of the Morning Show on seven ninety
1245
01:24:57.199 --> 01:24:59.720
James C. Harris there, get
to meet him, talk with him,
1246
01:25:00.000 --> 01:25:02.399
and it's going to be a really
beneficial symposium. We're gon we're gonna have
1247
01:25:02.399 --> 01:25:05.000
a panel for about the last hour
or so of it where you can ask
1248
01:25:05.039 --> 01:25:09.279
us any questions you have about the
market outlook, about politics going forward,
1249
01:25:09.439 --> 01:25:12.600
but how that's going to affect the
markets, about what's going on with this
1250
01:25:13.720 --> 01:25:16.119
sunset provision on the state planning.
John will be able to answer any of
1251
01:25:16.119 --> 01:25:19.079
those questions. And it's coming up
on April fifteenth, which is a tax
1252
01:25:19.119 --> 01:25:21.920
deadline, so Johnson Group will be
there able to answer any questions you have.
1253
01:25:23.159 --> 01:25:25.960
If you haven't done your taxes yet
or you're getting ready to just move
1254
01:25:25.960 --> 01:25:28.800
forward with taxes for the next year. You want of seats, it would
1255
01:25:28.840 --> 01:25:31.239
be prudence to get signed up quickly
because as there's only about fifty spots left.
1256
01:25:32.159 --> 01:25:34.119
I think they said it would hold
one hundred and fifty and I know
1257
01:25:34.159 --> 01:25:38.119
you're over one hundred. We are, Yeah, yeah, so give us
1258
01:25:38.119 --> 01:25:41.079
a call, or you can go
to either Canust's website. There's a link
1259
01:25:41.119 --> 01:25:44.359
on to Greenberg Financials event, right, you can go to our website,
1260
01:25:44.479 --> 01:25:45.119
or you can call us and we
can sign you up. There's a few
1261
01:25:45.119 --> 01:25:47.439
different ways. Yeah, we do
these once a year, and there are
1262
01:25:47.479 --> 01:25:50.479
going to be a lot of strategies
involved, a lot of questions you can
1263
01:25:50.520 --> 01:25:55.079
ask, because that is how we
all learned. So please feel free to
1264
01:25:55.119 --> 01:25:57.960
take advantage of this because again we
are only going to do this once a
1265
01:25:58.000 --> 01:26:00.840
year. Not only the analogy,
but the ability to people that are on
1266
01:26:00.880 --> 01:26:03.199
the radio that you wouldn't have an
opportunity to really meet anywhere else, Right,
1267
01:26:03.800 --> 01:26:06.720
So I think it's pretty cool.
What do you think about the existing
1268
01:26:06.760 --> 01:26:11.520
home sales report? Todd? Did
you it came in higher than expected nine
1269
01:26:11.520 --> 01:26:15.359
point five percent jump in February over
a dismal January was a dismal Yeah,
1270
01:26:15.359 --> 01:26:20.119
I didn't really have anything funding there, and it's due to race having dropped
1271
01:26:20.159 --> 01:26:26.159
a bit. Like Dave said,
they've gotten down below seven percent, and
1272
01:26:26.359 --> 01:26:30.000
he's he has told me before that
in the sixes people are getting comfortable.
1273
01:26:30.039 --> 01:26:33.119
They're getting kind of used to that. Yeah, and again, existing home
1274
01:26:33.159 --> 01:26:35.680
sales is different than new home sales, right. Oh, I have those
1275
01:26:35.720 --> 01:26:41.199
who are listening because existing they've already
been built. They're just second home secondhand
1276
01:26:41.319 --> 01:26:44.880
seals. So that's a really interesting
stat to see that big of an increase
1277
01:26:44.880 --> 01:26:48.319
in that side of sales, still
three point three percent below year ago levels,
1278
01:26:48.319 --> 01:26:54.680
but inventory, while still low,
did race did rise ten percent,
1279
01:26:55.279 --> 01:26:58.359
which bose well for future selles.
So you know, there are more and
1280
01:26:58.359 --> 01:27:01.239
more houses coming on the market.
I mean, I know people love their
1281
01:27:01.239 --> 01:27:05.680
mortgage rate as much or more than
they loved their house, but there comes
1282
01:27:05.680 --> 01:27:11.159
a point when you have to go
sometimes and you could be sitting on a
1283
01:27:11.199 --> 01:27:14.239
two and a half percent mortgage,
it doesn't matter. You gotta go.
1284
01:27:14.560 --> 01:27:16.000
Well, and as Dave said,
there is still a lot of equity built
1285
01:27:16.000 --> 01:27:20.760
into these homes that people have,
so they are still selling at a pretty
1286
01:27:20.960 --> 01:27:24.760
you know, high level. Oh
yeah, banking a lot of things in
1287
01:27:24.800 --> 01:27:28.199
the background. Absolutely, we saw
quite a mix We've got quite a mixed
1288
01:27:28.199 --> 01:27:30.520
bag going on in retail. It
was out to dinner with clients last week
1289
01:27:30.600 --> 01:27:34.600
and she said, isn't retail really
hurting? And I said, well,
1290
01:27:35.600 --> 01:27:41.760
segments of retail are struggling because retail
sales did come in lower than I expected.
1291
01:27:42.279 --> 01:27:46.680
And yet you've got You've got five
below plunging fifteen percent after reporting disappointing
1292
01:27:46.720 --> 01:27:53.479
results. But guess kind of the
same business jumped twelve percent. I'm stronger
1293
01:27:53.520 --> 01:27:59.680
than expected results. Pottery Barnes parent
company Williams Sonoma knew all time high.
1294
01:28:00.439 --> 01:28:03.920
Well, Macy's and Nordstroms are struggling. It really is. Is quite a
1295
01:28:04.000 --> 01:28:08.920
quite a mixed bag out there.
And well, Macy's is in its own
1296
01:28:08.960 --> 01:28:11.439
thing. It's going through a whole
restructure, it is, and so that's
1297
01:28:11.680 --> 01:28:15.119
its own idea. I wanted to, you know, always driving and you
1298
01:28:15.119 --> 01:28:18.279
know, I get a little spiritual
sometimes I get a little deep about things,
1299
01:28:18.359 --> 01:28:20.279
and so I wanted to take a
moment and get a little deep about
1300
01:28:20.279 --> 01:28:24.920
something else. Thinking about with financial
planning, because when we were on the
1301
01:28:24.920 --> 01:28:29.159
TV show, our host was talking
to us, why are people always so
1302
01:28:29.199 --> 01:28:31.840
afraid to come in and do a
financial plan and what to me would it
1303
01:28:31.920 --> 01:28:35.800
get? What I was really thinking
about was the idea that humans are afraid
1304
01:28:35.800 --> 01:28:42.399
to figure out whether they're successful or
failures. I mean, and they associate
1305
01:28:42.479 --> 01:28:47.239
what financial wealth they've accumulated throughout their
life as a marker for if there's a
1306
01:28:47.279 --> 01:28:50.640
success or failure as a human which
is pretty ridiculous, right, I Mean,
1307
01:28:50.640 --> 01:28:53.600
at the end of the day,
it is just a material thing.
1308
01:28:53.760 --> 01:28:57.479
It's just money. And I think
a lot of people get lost in the
1309
01:28:57.520 --> 01:29:01.720
idea that finding out that you plan
doesn't work is somehow showing that you're not
1310
01:29:01.800 --> 01:29:05.439
a good person or something like that. I think that's a subconscious thought that
1311
01:29:05.439 --> 01:29:09.640
a lot of people have, and
it's the wrong one to have, because
1312
01:29:10.159 --> 01:29:13.840
the only way that we can get
you on the right path, if you're
1313
01:29:13.880 --> 01:29:15.520
not on it already, is to
find out you're not on the right path,
1314
01:29:15.680 --> 01:29:18.960
right, right, I mean if
you're using a bad compass and you're
1315
01:29:19.000 --> 01:29:21.880
keep walking down the saying why am
I keep getting lost? Because you never
1316
01:29:21.960 --> 01:29:25.880
check the compass if it worked or
not? Right, And so we I
1317
01:29:25.920 --> 01:29:29.000
think a lot of people don't come
in because they think they don't have too
1318
01:29:29.079 --> 01:29:30.920
much money, or they don't want
to know if they're going to fail.
1319
01:29:31.119 --> 01:29:34.800
The plans success rate does not make
you a success. It does not make
1320
01:29:34.840 --> 01:29:39.359
you a failure. You are still
you as a human being, right,
1321
01:29:39.399 --> 01:29:42.159
You have your own values, and
visions. Money is just a feature of
1322
01:29:42.199 --> 01:29:45.760
your life. We can't create it, but we can manage it as efficiently
1323
01:29:45.800 --> 01:29:48.399
as we can. That's what we
help with. And I think people just
1324
01:29:48.439 --> 01:29:51.840
need to kind of give themselves a
push and understand that we are not here
1325
01:29:53.439 --> 01:29:56.439
to tell you you're wrong or right. We're here just to help you.
1326
01:29:56.800 --> 01:30:00.399
And so to come in and to
sit down with us is really just a
1327
01:30:00.439 --> 01:30:02.399
step in the right direction, whether
you're already going in the right direction or
1328
01:30:02.439 --> 01:30:04.840
not. And we're not going to
judge you. No, there's nothing to
1329
01:30:04.920 --> 01:30:09.359
do with that has to do with
with pointing you in the right direction.
1330
01:30:09.760 --> 01:30:15.479
Right, And that's very very well
put. Did you see where Tesla,
1331
01:30:15.680 --> 01:30:18.600
which which has really been struggling used
to be one of the Magnificent seven,
1332
01:30:18.720 --> 01:30:24.600
not really so much anymore. Down
thirty five percent this year again, slower
1333
01:30:24.600 --> 01:30:29.720
demand, increasing competition, falling prices. Other than that, things are going
1334
01:30:29.760 --> 01:30:34.760
well right. Goldman Sachs last week
said the company is well positioned for future
1335
01:30:34.840 --> 01:30:42.399
growth and they believe the slowing EV
sales are simply a pause that's going to
1336
01:30:42.479 --> 01:30:45.239
take off again, and when it
does, Tesla is a well positioned to
1337
01:30:45.800 --> 01:30:49.359
benefit and if rates too lower,
I do think that gives Tesla a huge
1338
01:30:49.479 --> 01:30:54.720
bow up. I mean, I
understand that a lot of people do just
1339
01:30:54.760 --> 01:30:58.239
write checks for these things, but
also a lot of people will finance a
1340
01:30:58.279 --> 01:31:00.760
car purchase like they always have,
and so when rates are lower, it
1341
01:31:00.800 --> 01:31:04.399
makes it more incentivized for you to
do that. So, just like solar
1342
01:31:04.720 --> 01:31:10.399
will increase when lower rates, I
think Tesla should find that benefit if we
1343
01:31:10.479 --> 01:31:13.680
finally get lower rates. But I
think that's still all far away off too,
1344
01:31:13.880 --> 01:31:18.039
So yeah, hopefully what do you
mean hopefully? Well, because if
1345
01:31:18.039 --> 01:31:21.760
we're gonna have lower rates, I
mean something's broken, you know, something's
1346
01:31:21.760 --> 01:31:28.239
something's slowing down. Nothing's broken right
now. The economy is doing well.
1347
01:31:28.840 --> 01:31:34.920
GDP is fine, unemployments, reasonable
interest rates are normal. Quick taking picture.
1348
01:31:34.960 --> 01:31:40.199
I've heard a couple of ideas about
unemployment being so low because of all
1349
01:31:40.239 --> 01:31:44.880
the illegals coming in and taking jobs
and skewing that number. I couldn't really
1350
01:31:44.880 --> 01:31:50.199
think through that and decide if that
was a legitimate point. Most curious if
1351
01:31:50.199 --> 01:31:55.359
you have thoughts on the I think
it is crazy though, what Tyson Food's
1352
01:31:55.399 --> 01:31:59.720
doing foreign Americans and then highing illegals. That what I'm saying, I don't
1353
01:31:59.760 --> 01:32:03.720
know how much that is happening,
or how necessarily they can do that,
1354
01:32:04.159 --> 01:32:08.880
because I'm pretty sure you can't hire
illegals. Pretty sure that is illegal.
1355
01:32:10.159 --> 01:32:13.560
Yeah, they don't want to they're
coming through. Yeah, I was was
1356
01:32:13.600 --> 01:32:17.479
illegal for it at this point.
Yeah, it's an interesting idea of whether
1357
01:32:17.520 --> 01:32:21.399
the unemployment number is actually what we're
experiencing. But seems like it seems like
1358
01:32:21.439 --> 01:32:25.479
everyone who wants a job can't get
a job. Seems like it, and
1359
01:32:25.520 --> 01:32:29.079
I'm not seeing anywhere. I'm not
seeing the signs on businesses. Help wanted.
1360
01:32:30.039 --> 01:32:31.520
We were talking to a client.
She works at Raytheon. She said,
1361
01:32:31.600 --> 01:32:34.520
uh, Rath was going through a
lot of layoffs. I don't know
1362
01:32:34.520 --> 01:32:38.039
if it's just restructuring or something,
but they don't have as many people there.
1363
01:32:38.199 --> 01:32:41.039
Said, they're laying off a lot
of engineers lately. Really. Yeah,
1364
01:32:42.039 --> 01:32:44.399
but she's like it might just be
a cycle and later on they're going
1365
01:32:44.439 --> 01:32:46.680
to rehire them, those software engineers. Yeah, there have been a lot
1366
01:32:46.680 --> 01:32:53.640
of layoffs in technology. We know
that because they really over hired. Was
1367
01:32:53.680 --> 01:32:57.199
that overhired and they realized they don't
need that many could be you know,
1368
01:32:57.520 --> 01:33:03.640
speaking of technology, snowflake tech Darling
down more than sixty percent from his IPO
1369
01:33:03.800 --> 01:33:08.720
high. Shares are down twenty one
percent this year. I was surprised to
1370
01:33:08.720 --> 01:33:11.880
see that this is a stock that
you people couldn't get it now. But
1371
01:33:11.880 --> 01:33:15.920
it hit a four month low on
Tuesday after the stock was downgraded to sell.
1372
01:33:15.960 --> 01:33:21.359
The analyst said, they are missing
the AI boom snowflake, and that's
1373
01:33:21.720 --> 01:33:29.319
Warren Buffett's he invested some snowflake and
snowflake really Buffet, Yeah, I remember
1374
01:33:29.840 --> 01:33:32.920
surprising. Back in the day,
Buffett said he would never buy a technology
1375
01:33:33.119 --> 01:33:39.039
company because he didn't understand them.
That changed right after reading five hundred phases
1376
01:33:39.079 --> 01:33:41.800
a day, like he does it, probably understands technology company. And now
1377
01:33:41.800 --> 01:33:45.800
his biggest position is Apple, and
he wouldn't buy a technology stock twenty five
1378
01:33:45.880 --> 01:33:49.560
years ago. He's buying Apple.
He didn't understand him, just keeps buying
1379
01:33:49.600 --> 01:33:54.720
it. Just maybe you just didn't
to take it private, right, that'd
1380
01:33:54.760 --> 01:33:59.560
be crazy. Broadcom rally more than
ten percent after investor. After they had
1381
01:33:59.560 --> 01:34:05.399
a investor event that was quite well
received. They highlighted their AI opportunities,
1382
01:34:06.239 --> 01:34:13.560
which apparently are extensive, got people
all excited, drove the stock up.
1383
01:34:14.199 --> 01:34:16.800
True Social is going public on its
own. Do you watch this spac that
1384
01:34:16.840 --> 01:34:20.880
brought it public. Yeah, drop
seven percent on Friday because they announced that
1385
01:34:20.920 --> 01:34:26.000
they can take it up public on
their own. Really yep, can it
1386
01:34:26.039 --> 01:34:29.720
be growth? It's not going to
work, not positive, it's going to
1387
01:34:29.760 --> 01:34:32.159
be interesting. Yeah, So they
got to going to get their money back
1388
01:34:32.520 --> 01:34:35.520
or just have to go buy another
thing to take public that's going to go
1389
01:34:35.560 --> 01:34:39.560
public. People are saying that Trump's
gonna be all it does have to borrow
1390
01:34:39.600 --> 01:34:42.319
against that stock and to be able
to pay his what is it? Three
1391
01:34:42.399 --> 01:34:46.039
four? Just makes your hair hurt
listening to this. Hey, that's going
1392
01:34:46.079 --> 01:34:48.399
on. Well, if your hair
hurts, if you live in Germany,
1393
01:34:48.520 --> 01:34:53.640
you're in luck. Because they just
legalized cannabis. Yeah, or partially see
1394
01:34:53.680 --> 01:34:57.680
Canopy growth on Friday, Yeah,
up sixty eight percent, sixty eight percent
1395
01:34:58.479 --> 01:35:02.560
Canadian Marijuana Company of sixty eight percent
because the illegalized spot in Germany. Yeah,
1396
01:35:02.600 --> 01:35:04.479
and that's the thing I could have
said, I mean, that will
1397
01:35:04.520 --> 01:35:08.600
that's none of the thoughts been if
they legalize a federally in the US,
1398
01:35:08.680 --> 01:35:11.960
that's what cannopy but none of the
other candabis companies went up. It was
1399
01:35:12.000 --> 01:35:16.239
like just canopy growth. That's what
doesn't make sense. The Canadian ones but
1400
01:35:16.600 --> 01:35:19.199
Chanify growth went up way more than
the others. They must have a deal
1401
01:35:19.199 --> 01:35:23.800
in Germany or something. Yeah,
it's wild, but it's good for Constellation
1402
01:35:23.880 --> 01:35:29.960
because they own a lot of canopy
gross stuff righting it lately before this rallied
1403
01:35:30.000 --> 01:35:32.239
all the way to eight dollars in
Constellation Brands bought half of the company two
1404
01:35:32.319 --> 01:35:35.239
years ago for thirty four. Yeah, thirty nine helps him a little bit,
1405
01:35:35.239 --> 01:35:38.800
but they still own Adela, which
is the largest Getting back there anyway,
1406
01:35:38.800 --> 01:35:42.279
don't forget our our symposium on April
the second. We're running out of
1407
01:35:42.359 --> 01:35:45.399
room. If you've been thinking about
it, please call. You need to
1408
01:35:45.439 --> 01:35:49.920
get your reservation in or it ain't
gonna be any room. And we appreciate
1409
01:35:49.960 --> 01:35:56.399
your joining this for this March Madness
show, and we'll look forward to talking
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to you next week at Greenberg Financial. We want to be happy, we
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all want to be healthy, but
at the end of the day, what
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we're striving for is to be see
you next week.
