Transcript
WEBVTT
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Good morning everybody. This is Dean
Greenberg. This is Sunday morning, eight
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o'clock and it will be the Money
Matter Show. We're gonna bring to you
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for the next two hours, insight
to what's going on in the markets,
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some ideas, some strategies, and
answer some questions that we got for the
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emails this week. I hope you
enjoy it because we're ready to bring it
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to you Moneymatter Show. Here we
go. Hey, this week, another
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flat week in the markets. Kind
of felt a little bit like they want
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to turn over a little bit right
now. The S and P was down
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point one percent and NAZAK was down
a little over half a percent. The
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rest of the small caps were down
two and a half and the SMP equal
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weighted was down about one percent.
For the month, the s and P
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still up about a half a percent
and Nazac's down about one percent. And
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for the year, s and P
still up Sevennazdac's up six, and the
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dial's only up two. And the
wrestle, not the rustle, the SMP
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equal weight it is up about four. So where do we go from here?
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I mean, you get a lot
of questions, a lot of calls.
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I mean, uh, you know, everything from I'm so scared about
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this market to where's a good where
we're gonna go? Should we be buyers?
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And everything in between. There's no
surprise for us to tell you that
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we've been cautious but obviously making some
money when the market's arising. We're in
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the right areas. We try to
be in the right areas. Balance portfolios
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have good, good bond ladders right
now with government bonds, corp good corporate
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bonds. So the balanced approach is
the best approach right now. Do I
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think there's gonna be a crash?
You know, I don't see the signs
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of it right now, and you
don't ever really see the science if you
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if you really are going to be
honest, because what happens is a black
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swan event comes and boom it's there. But it all always happens with the
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federal reserve. The federal reserve is
what creates the money supply that's out there.
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It creates how much liquidity we have. And when not liquidity tightens up,
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that's when we always have problems with
banks and everything else. When we
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have events that hurt our economics and
our businesses and just the overall economy.
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That's what destroys the liquidity, which
then creates a scenario, as you know,
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everyone wants to leave the party at
the same time. I don't see
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that happening this year because it is
a election year. I see people like
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Janet yelling and all trying to keep
the bided in as president. And let's
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face it, the only thing he's
got going right now is the economy moving
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supposedly in the right direction, even
though it's kind of false pretense, but
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he does have a market making new
all time highs. So people with money
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and people with forward K plan and
people that look towards retirement kind of okay
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with that. What they're not okay
with is prices being as high as they
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are. Inflation was another problem this
week. You saw the CPI PPI numbers
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coming back and telling you that inflation
is more sticky than what they're telling us.
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I've we've on this show and you
can go back and listen. I've
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said I don't see how they lower
interest rates at this time. I still
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don't see how they lower interest rates
in the face of the CPI and PPI
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number. The only way they're going
to lower interest rates on a legitimate basis
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would be, what if the economy
was faltering, if all of a sudden
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we had a liquidity crisis, All
of a sudden, there's a black Swan
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event. All of a sudden,
companies aren't making money, are being squeezed
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because we're in a recession, because
people aren't spending money. Now that can
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come. I think it's next year. I see credit card balances increasing,
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I see delinquencies increasing. I see
interest rates. Higher interest rates hurt people
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when they rise. Most interest rates
are adjustable, not so much of mortgages,
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but those are high right now.
But on credit cards and loans,
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a lot of people have adjustable mortgages. Businesses are almost always adjustable loans.
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So there's a problem there. Our
own debt that keeps increasing is costing us
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so much more money right now because
of the of inflation. And then you
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and then they just try to tell
us over and over again, well,
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Biden's bringing inflation down, Biden's increased
is increasing wages. Biden is going ahead
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and working on the border. It's
like, who believes this? And then
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I realize a lot of people,
unfortunately, a lot of people just listen
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to the snippets of the pundits that
they want to listen to who gave them
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the news, and all they have
to do is keep lying about it.
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There is no way middle class law
and the lower income families are not struggling.
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They are all struggling because even though
the wages might have increased, the
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the the amount that they have to
pay for real items has not increased it
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the same rate. You can.
You can have President Biden up there all
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day long telling you, well,
wages have increased more than prices. Not
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for the average person. They are
struggling, and that is why savings has
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decreased. Credit card balances have increased
because the interest rate that they're paying is
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extremely high. And I promise you
people aren't making twenty twenty five thirty percent
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more on wages that are paying those
credit cards off. And that's how much
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credit cards are average is about twenty
five percent for the average American person that
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doesn't pay it off month to month, and that eats them alive. So
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we're going to get into all that
today and talk about where this is going.
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In a second. I gotta go
ahead and tell you that this show
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is brought to you by Greenberg Financial
Group. Greenberg Financial Group is both the
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registered investment advisory and a broken dealer
registered with the SEC. Members of FINRAM,
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members of SIPIIC. We talk a
lot about product strategies, ideas,
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especially ideas everything has a rare,
everything has a risk. Please understand what
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your risk tolerance is. Understand what
the risk of the investment is. Understand
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how much of that risk you can
take, and where it fits in with
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your goals and your needs. We
try to do that for everybody. Obviously
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a lot of people try to do
that for a lot of people, but
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there's a lot of people out there
that just want to sell your product.
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Be careful. I can't emphasize that
enough. Be careful. You hear it
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all. And I'm going to talk
about annuities later on in the show today.
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Annuities are okay in certain situations.
They're not the end all for everybody.
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Just because you're retiring doesn't mean you
need to put your money in annuities
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and get a guaranteed income unless you
know every rule, every idea. You
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have to read that fine print,
and you don't understand the fine print.
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Ninety eight percent of people do not
understand the fine print and do not under
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stand how annuities really work. Most
people are disappointed. Some every once in
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a while people are not disappointed.
The guaranteed income is the one thing that
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is worth it, but remember that
also could hurt your principle. A big
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thing I'm hearing a lot lately is
about the lurps, the life insurance policies
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that you can take money off and
borrow against it tax free, and then
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when you die, the life insurance
pays off the loan and it's all tax
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free. And that's wonderful except for
when it doesn't work. And you got
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to pay attention to what worst case
scenarios are when things don't work, because
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the person that's going to suffer is
you. The big commissions on annuities and
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lurps come up front. The person
that suffer is you. What you want
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to do is be with a financial
advisor, somebody that's going to do a
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plan for you, a real plan
for you, and not just turn around
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and sell you a product, an
annuity, your life insurance policy. There
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are other ways you can save on
taxes. Because when things don't work out,
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there's a problem, all right,
things are a problem. Be careful
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the way people advertise I hear a
lot of different advertisements out there. I
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hear a lot of different guarantees out
there. I hear a lot of bonuses
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out there. Be careful of all
of that. Well, you navigate your
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own plan. You're smart, you
know what common sense is, all right,
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and if you feel pressure, walk
away, walk away. This is
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a relationship building thing. This is
what you're looking for is to build a
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relationship with a financial advisor on all
aspects of your life. You should be
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able to go to them and say
should I at least or buy a car,
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even though they don't get paid for
it. They should be able to
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try to help you out with because
they have that financial plan where it fits
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in best. They should be able
to help you on what kind offications you
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can afford, Where do you want
to go, what do you want to
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do, fitting in with the budgets, making sure your budgets are there,
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talking to you, meeting with you. That's what advisors do. We'll financial
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advisors build a relationship with their clients. Then they either hand off the money
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or in our case, we manage
it ourselves. We choose to do that
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because we will be accountable for what
we're buying and selling according to what you
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needs and what your goals are,
and we can change quickly and we com
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mitigate risk quickly if the need is
to do that caution. That's where we
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are right now, cautious. We
have a higher amount of money and money
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markets right now because they're paying good
money. Why take the risk when we've
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rallied so much, you know,
ETFs in certain areas cut back, allocate,
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and we've had this big run up. So now we're readjusting, re
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trimming some positions, raising cash and
looking for opportunities. There's always opportunities.
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We talk about that all the time. The most recently over the last four
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months or so, there was an
opportunity in Target. I had got down,
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you know, between one ten and
one twenty five is so goodbye.
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Rallied all the way up to over
one forty fifty. Boeing a couple of
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years ago is down to around one
hundred, rallied to two fifty. It's
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coming back down again because of problems. That could be a possible opportunity down
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the road here Disney. Nobody wanted
Disney, so I got down in the
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seventies. Not where is it one
one oh five, one ten, Somewhere
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in there Okay, you've got you
got rate the on right in our backyard
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got down to the low seventies.
Now it's over ninety. Problems arising good
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quality companies, they get there,
they fix them, and you move forward
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and then it's there. So right
now, the way I look at the
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markets, I look for opportunities,
but I don't mind having a lot of
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cash. I don't mind having a
little mitigation of risk on right now.
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But the way I like to do
it is to be able to have cash
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right now. We have a little
bit of a hedge on with the inverse
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funds, but other than that cash
and getting some bonds, I'm very comfortable.
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I don't know when the market's going
to fall, but I don't think
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it's going to fall big right now. But even if you get a ten
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or twelve or fifteen percent moved down
between now and say the election, probably
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is going to be a very good
buying opportunity. Look for quality stocks that
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fall back to support levels, the
little ones that money will flow back into,
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the fast money, the strong money, and the institution money will flow
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back into the stocks that are good
quality stocks. Is remember, institutions always
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have more money coming to them to
for one K plans and all mutual funds
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have money coming to them when they
have to liquid date. That makes the
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markets go down fast and furious,
and that's why once it stops, the
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sellers are gone and now people looking
to buy. That's when you step up
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and buy before that way, that
avalanche of buying comes back in and because
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when they stop putting money back in, they have to buy again. You
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have to have a feel for that. You ever notice when the market's fall,
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they go quick, but when they
go higher, once the money stops,
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it's there because who's going to keep
giving money? The first four months
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of the year usually good because guess
what, it's a whole new bunch of
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new money coming in from pensions,
from four one K plans to bonuses,
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you name it. It comes back
in the markets. So there's abundance of
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cash that looks to buy. As
the market goes higher, people get scared
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they want to put more money in. That's the scenario we're in. That's
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what forced those seven tech stocks up. But now we're getting a little bit
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more of a broader, a broader
sense of what's going on in the market.
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More stocks are doing better and they
look like there's opportunities. Companies are
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coming around. Old companies are starting
to look and I see accumulation in them.
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Okay, you know, I don't
know if IBM or Intel fits in
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with your portfolio for not managing it, but those are good quality companies that
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haven't done much over time, but
are starting to look good again a little
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bit. You know, look at
the financials, look at the money accumulations.
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There's opportunities to start maybe small positions
if that's what you're looking for.
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Or look for the ets. Okay
that those have those kind of stocks into
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them. It gives you a little
bit more allocation and a little bit less
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risk. There's a lot of things
to do, but it has to be
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in there. That's why people say, Okay, you have this cash,
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what are you gonna do? I'm
always looking for things, Okay, I'm
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always looking for things. Looks like
the biotech industry is heating up again.
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It's done well. That we talked
about the home builders of a couple of
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months ago. They were making all
time new highs. Here the ETF.
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There's opportunities. So now we're here. Caution, whatever that means to you
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is what you have to do.
It don't go moody what everybody else says.
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I know what it means to me, and I know how to do
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it from here. Okay, but
you need to understand it also cause means
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having less at risk, having more
in cash, looking for opportunities, hedging
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accounts, selling calls, buy and
puts, you name it. There's a
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whole bunch of different ways you can
do it. If you don't care about
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any of that, then just going
to one of the one of the discom
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brokes are and buy indexes and't just
hold them. It's gonna go up,
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it's gonna go down. I know
most people don't even want to hear that
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anymore. Oh, just hold through
it. I hate that. Why do
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you want to pay somebody something if
they're just gonna say, oh, the
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markets go up and then they go
down and then they go back up again.
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You have to take your age into
consideration. That's easy to say when
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you're thirty and forty and even fifty
years old, but you're still getting in
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your sixty seventy eighties. We don't
think that way anymore. We think our
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time frame is less. Yes,
we want to take advantage of being more
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aggressive in our risk side when the
markets are really going down. But when
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the markets are really going up and
there's a lot of things going on that
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you're not happy with, why expose
yourself to so much risk? And so
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when people say, oh, don't
worry, it's just gonna go down there,
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it's gonna come back up, you
don't want that. How are you
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gonna mitigate risk? If you're cautioned? What are you gonna do about it?
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If you're a little bit cautious.
There's a hundred things out there of
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why you should be a little bit
cautious when it does go down, and
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it will go down, and we
all know it's gonna go down it sometimes
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maybe it's next year, maybe it's
years from now, who knows. Evaluations
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mean a lot. And if you
can't look at that and say this stock
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is cheap, or this company that
the markets are cheap and the good quality
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turn companies to tweet are cheap,
then what are you gonna do? They
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keep talking about how the growth of
the economy, the growth of the economy,
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right, well, doesn't that mean
they aren't gonna come down to lower
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interest rates? Because the fast of
the economy, the overheated of the economy,
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the more inflation we have, they
are not gonna lower interest rates,
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and they do. It's a farce
because of all they're trying to do is
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sparked the UH, spark interest in
the markets to make people happy so they
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can go get people selling, get
and get capital gains so they have more
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money to give away because there's no
need to cut interest rates. Now.
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It's no different when the markets were
doing well and they kept low interestrates and
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we had nothing on interest rates,
We had more less than one percent in
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interest rates, and they wouldn't raise
them. They wouldn't raise interest rates going
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in the election because they did not
want to affect the election. Well,
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it's the same thing. Why would
they want to stimulate the economy and then
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hand it to who's ever in next
an economy that's overheated where they had to
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start coming back in and cut and
raising rates again and make the markets go
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down again. We hear about normalizing
rates, but they had to be taken
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into context. Normalizing rates. Yeah, we might have, you know,
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like mortgages for forever if you look
at them, sixty seven percent in the
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normal price. Okay, but that
was when our home prices were like two
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point fifty. Now the average home
price is what four hundred and let's face
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it, most homes that you that
most people want to look at and look
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at a seven fifty to a million
or more. That's the sweet spot.
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So now that's six and a half
or seven percent you get on a mortgage
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is so much more of a payment. And believe me, you have not
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right. Your wages have not gone
off that much in the last two years
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to afford the extra fifteen hundred two
thousand dollars it's going to cost you in
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a mortgage rather than having at two
and a half percent three percent, you
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have to pay four percent more on
a house that's million dollars is now forty
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thousand dollars more. Most people have
not had a forty thousand dollars raise.
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And even though they did, that's
a break even. That's a break even
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at best. So when you listen
to these pundits and they always trying to
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find out, tell you the reasons
why, wow them, it's going up
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even though interest rates, even though
we show hot inflation, Well they're wrong
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because gets what the markets turned over
right after that. Smart money, strong
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money, institutional money is selling in
to the retail investor. They're reducing their
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positions as the retail investors want to
buy these hot stocks and make them go
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higher. We have inflation, Our
wages have gone up. That's not going
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back. How are we going to
get inflation down to two percent? Then
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they say, well, having supply
chain problems. Whose fault is that?
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Because our Congress doesn't do anything but
man, when they want to move,
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they can move TikTok. They want
to ban cantire, they want to get
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rid of TikTok, and that thing
has flown through are Congress because they think
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by using more China, China,
China, people are gonna get on board
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with that and forget everything else.
Yet they forget we care about the damn
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border. And now everyone's caring about
the border because the border isn't just at
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the border anymore. The border is
in New York, New Jersey, Chicago,
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Philadelphia, they've all gone to the
Blue States and they are having a
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fit DC. So now the borders
becomes a problem. But the border wasn't
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a problem when it was just there. But they can't get their act together
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and do something that is good for
everybody, and they blame each other.
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If BIDA wanted to do something.
He should have shut down the wall two
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years ago. You didn't even have
to change anything of charl ideas proposals.
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But right away, within the first
month they got rid of everything Trump did
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and boom, the board has opened
up. And now they think they have
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all these people that can go vote. And I'll tell you right now,
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with that said, with the election
coming up, if the Republicans are not
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going to act be sparn enough and
understand what the Democrats are going to do,
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shame on them, because you know
there's going to be somehow, some
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way they're going to come up with
some idea to be able to get voting
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in They talk about suppression of voting. The illegal immigrants that come across the
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border that do not do it legally
are not allowed to vote period. They're
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not even allowed to be here.
But in certain areas, certain cities,
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they get to vote. What is
this? Why do they get to change
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the rules and the laws? Why
are they allowed to not have to stick
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to it? But boy, when
they want to stick it to the Republicans,
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they'll stick to the laws. We
got a serious problem that needs to
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be fixed. In the meantime,
with the higher interest rates where we are
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take advantage of it. It's nice
to see money markets over five percent.
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It's nice to see bonds paying over
five percent, four and a half pens
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a government bonds paying four and a
half percent. This is great stuff.
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Take advantage of it. But somehow, some way understand it. Sometime when
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interust rates come down, how are
you going to take advantage of that?
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You got to be understanding the income
market, the fixed income market, along
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with the equity markets. How the
allocation process everything. It's a portfolio,
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it's an allocation. It's a diversified
scenario. You need people working for you
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doing that. There's a lot of
proper there's a lot of opportunities, not
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just now, but over time.
You have to have a plan. We
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have a plan. You need to
have a plan. We can help you
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with that plan. You don't already
have a plan. To put it all
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together with your feelings, your ideas, your risk tolerance of what's going on,
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and try to merge your plan off
plan of what's going on. And
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we get we help each other.
We'll be right back at some moneymun of
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show. I am so happy you're
listening. Sa
