Transcript
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Good morning everybody. It's that Sunday
morning eight o'clock Money Matter show, and
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it's a special edition because it's Easter. The Easter Bunny is here. I
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guess one of the things I always
grew up trying to wonder is because I'd
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always go to my friend's house and
you know, the do the Easter egg
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hunt. It's like, I did
not know that bunnies laid eggs, okay,
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but for some reason they convinced it's
as kids that not only do they
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lay eggs, but they colored eggs, and we do this Easter bunny hunt,
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Easter egg hunt, and I remember
that. I remember that as a
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kid, Jill going to my friend's
house because obviously we didn't do that being
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Jewish at all, so we we
celebrated with them. And you know,
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as you got older and older,
you go, wait a second, when
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did bunnies lay eggs? But it
is what it is. We continue to
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keep giving that story and that's okay, right if you think about it,
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it's fine, We've gone through it. It's great. It's fun. Kids
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love it, you know, and
it's a celebratory time for them and those
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parents that want to talk about what
it's really about. Okay, that's good.
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It's the same thing in all the
religions. But then why don't we
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get so crazy about changing everything else
that is real, well, all the
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real stuff. Why don't we try
to change that. I just haven't figured
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that out. Let's change the way
our history is. Let's change the movies
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and change the things on them.
Why why can't we accept what we've had
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in the past and just move forward
and whatever the future is the future is.
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Don't get it, but that's the
way with the society we live in,
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and we all know right now it's
kind of crazy. And it's the
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same thing in this financial market.
I got to tell you the truth.
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I am confused. I'm happily confused. I want to be happier, but
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this is the first time in a
long time that I feel like the markets
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keep going higher and higher and higher
and making new highs, which is great,
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but it makes me nervous. I
feel like we're building this up on
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a house of cards. I don't
believe all the numbers. I don't believe
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the pundits. They've been so wrong. They all talk about the markets were
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gonna rally because they were gonna cut
interest rates, six times. Who knows
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that they're even gonna cut them once
We've told you we don't think they're gonna
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cut them. But the markets keep
going higher. So if you believe the
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markets were going high because of interest
rates cuts by the Fed and they don't
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cut them and they markets still go
higher, you understand why I feel uncomfortable.
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The unemployment numbers keep going down,
but more people are getting subsidies.
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That doesn't make sense. More people
are working, wages are up, but
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a credit card balances are up,
the bank savings is down. Those are
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real numbers. The fact that it
costs seventeen percent more over the last couple
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of years to live than it did
two years ago is a real number.
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I don't care that inflation just says
it's up four percent year over year.
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Well, if you count that out
four percent, you know it was eight
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percent. That's twelve and another four
percent to sixteen. It's still high and
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prices aren't coming down. Go out
to dinner, it's expensive. Fill up
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your car again, it's expensive.
Go on a vacation. It's almost where
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the point you can't afford it.
Airlines have almost doubled from a few years
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ago, doubled things that used to
cost four four hundred fifty dollars or eight
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hundred dollars. Now just to go
cross country on coach, prices are higher.
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We're letting everybody into this country,
we're paying for them, We're giving
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money around the world, and our
debt just sores. That's why I am
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uncomfortable, because it feels like at
any time something happens, a house of
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cards come tumbling down two thousand and
eight. Don't think that's in the cards
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where we're gonna have institutions two thousand
and one. With a terrorist attack brings
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down our economy, we get scared
that's possible. We don't know who's coming
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in here. Millions of millions and
millions of people continue to come across the
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border, and we keep paying them
and paying them and setting it up with
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no real plan. You hear me
talk about you got a plan. Well,
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a government never plans. It just
spends. And the more it spends,
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the more we have problems. And
that is why I'm happy the market's
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up. I'm happy we're making money, but I am cautious. I mitigate
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and risk I will have less invested
than I normally do, and then if
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falls I'll get I will, I
will, I will hedge ourselves even more.
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But with that said, this is
the money by the show, and
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we want to make money. And
Greenberg Financial Group is the ones that sponsored
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this show. Greenberg Financial Group is
both a registered investment advisory and he broke
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a dealer. They're registered with the
SEC and members of FENDER and members of
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CIPIK. We always talk about risk. We always talk about uh, you
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know, doesn't matter up, down, whatever. Allocation is the most important
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thing to protect your risk tolerance.
The good news is now we can put
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in government bonds and at least earn
four and a half percent the more some
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good corporates are maybe paying five money
markets are paying five. That's a lot
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better than a couple of years ago, and we were making a half a
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percent one percent on the same kind
of quality. We are moving higher.
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The markets have done well, all
right. The markets rallied another half percent
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on the s and P almost one
percent on the Dow. The NASDAC happened
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to be down this week, to
wrestle two thousands starting to make a move.
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They were up two and a half
percent. And like we always talk
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about the the SMP equal weighted was
up one point seven percent, which was
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over one point three percent higher than
just the S and P. But for
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the year right now, the S
and P leads the way up ten percent.
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That doals up five percent, the
NASDAC is up nine percent, Russell's
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up four point eight percent, and
the equal weighted S and P is up
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seven and a half percent. We
had a ten percent quarter in the S
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and P. Do I think that's
going to continue? You know what?
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Probably not. That means we would
be up twenty percent the first part of
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the year. Do I think we
have a crash and burn coming No,
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not unless something comes up that I
don't know about. But again, if
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it comes up, it's coming down
fast. We have a terrorist attack,
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it comes down fast. We'll be
talking about what happens with the election out
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of symposium on Tuesday, because it's
gonna be quite different, and it's going
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to be really quite different. And
Biden gets in, the Democrats win the
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Senate and win the House. God
help us. There will be no checks
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and balances and you will see taxes
rising. You'll see more of vangilante after
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people that have been successful in their
lives. They'll be the tear down of
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the American dream, and the left
doesn't see it except when they go to
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their own pocket, because we know
exactly how they work. We know how
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Gavin Newsome work during the pandemic.
Everybody else had to do what the government
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said, but him, he was
still able to go drink on his wine
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and we're still able to have friends
all you're still able to go to restaurants
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without masks. Two different standards,
but really he was living the way most
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of us felt. The whole thing
was live your life. But that's where
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we're at right now. The craziest
thing for me right now, and what's
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scary to me is we are brought
up that you work hard, you invest
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money, you find, you go
to the bank to borrow money. The
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bank vets you up and down,
does its own due diligence, it does
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its own valuations, and ends up
loaning you the money at a much more
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conservative amount of money that you think
you're going to get, and then they
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charge us interest. We pay back
the interest, and then we pay back
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the entire loan. And now that's
a crime. That's a crime. If
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you look at what's happening Donald Trump
in New York, he borrows money,
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the bank vets them. The bank
does due diligence. The bank values all
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values is his properties and decides he's
a good risk to give him the money,
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which they were smart to do because
he paid the interest and he paid
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back the loan with no problems.
And they're trying to put him in jail.
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They're trying to brust his business,
they're trying to tear him down.
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They're trying to get money from him. That's the crime. So as a
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businessman and I borrowed money from the
banks, and believe me, they do
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their own evaluations, and many times
they come down less than what you think
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things are. Very rarely are they
higher, and own the money against that
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value that they believe something is because
they send out their independent appraiser. Think
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about that. You can put down
whatever you want. There's going to be
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a praiser that comes to your house
and a value, and it goes ahead
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and values your house at the price
that he thinks that's worth in that neighborhood,
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no matter what you put down.
And then you are giving the money
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on that house or that property according
to what their valuation, but whatever it
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is of their valuation, and it's
your responsibility to pay on a monthly basis
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principal and interest into that entire mortgage
is paid off. Now you do that
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and pay it off early. According
to the New York attorneys, they can
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say that you put down that that
was value too much and they gave you
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too much money. Think about it. It makes no sense. But then
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let's look at the other side of
everything. Now the other side tells you
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go to college, take out loans, but you don't have the responsibility to
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have to pay those back anymore.
You don't have to pay interests, and
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now you don't have to pay principal
because our government thinks that it's too much
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of a burden on you. Your
desire to go ahead and go to college
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and borrow money to try to better
yourself. Now allows people to not have
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to pay back the school loan or
the interest the government will pay. Will
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go ahead and say you don't have
to pay it anymore. And guess who
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gets to pay it. You and
me as tax payers who are successful who
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paid off their damn student loans.
If this is not asked backwards, I
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don't know what is. And if
you're a business person, you better get
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scared because if they win the election, and they win the House, and
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they win the Senate. They're coming
after very successful people. They want to
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control everything because they want our money
to pay for those that don't want to
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work. I'm all about helping those
that need to work, that can't work.
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I'm all about to disabled. I'm
all about the people that need help.
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I'm not about those that are able
bodied that are lazy and prefer not
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working and getting a check and figuring
out. It's funny they figure out how
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to live within that means, but
our government doesn't realize that they have a
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debit, a debt that they have
to live within and stop spending. They
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think they cut spending by not spending
at a higher increase that they did the
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year before. They think that inflation, because it's come down from eight nine
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percent down to four percent, is
okay, But it's not real inflation.
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The real inflation is you and me
going to the store, you and me
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going out, you and me going
to the gas station. That's the real
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inflation. Paying for school, getting
on an airplane, going on vacation,
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doing anything with our kids are families, it's not even up five percent,
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it's like up twenty percent. That's
costing a lot of money. And I'm
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very concer earned about where this all
leads, because if you're needing to live
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on every single penny, that means
you're not putting money away. The average
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four toh one K plan has about
sixty thousand dollars in it. Sixty thousand
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you get five percent. That's three
grand a year. That's two hundred and
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fifty dollars a month. That means
everyone's going to be living on Social Security
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and our kids and our grandchildren are
going to have to pay so much into
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it to be able to support those
that did not put money away. Again,
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I tell you, the system is
asked backwards. We keep giving money.
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Now. The federal government is now
giving money because the states are complaining,
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we can't afford us. So they're
giving money for border control, but
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not shutting off the border. They
go after text because Texas is slowing down
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the people coming across, but yet
they want to take it down. They
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want them flooding into a country.
And they're coming from everywhere in the world.
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It's not just from some of these
countries that they're looking for asylum.
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They're coming from every bad acting country. You can imagine how many terrorists are
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coming into a country, we're not
vetting them. And how many It's like
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drugs coming in. Right, You're
gonna go ahead and get maybe one out
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of fifty that are coming across,
and it's gonna be a big dress drug
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bust. But what about those other
forty nine? Where's all those drugs going?
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Where are those people going? We
might find a couple of terrafts here
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and there on the bed on the
bad watch list. How many are getting
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through that we're not seeing? Where
they hiding out? Our country is in
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trouble. And the reason I say
all this stuff is because that is why
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I think that everything's on a house
of cards. I love building with Cement's
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steps. I love building with Cement's
steps because as you move up, we
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always have hiccups and we fall back
down. But with a Cement step,
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you might fall down one or two
or three steps, but you still have
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a solid base to grow back up
again. But when it's a house of
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cards, you fall all the way
back down. And it seems so that
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we do this to our country way
too many times. We get over our
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skis, we have spent too much
money, We do all the things that
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we don't need to do. We
try to go ahead and be the leader
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of the world, which is great, we got to do it economically,
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and the world is trying to take
us down economically problems. So what do
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we do with this market? You
better pair back, better pair back.
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I personally paired back a lot of
positions that I had on last week.
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I was a little aggressive for myself
leading up to the end of the quarter,
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thinking they would have a rally window
dressing. I've been in this business
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a long time. I'm able to
take a little bit more risk for myself.
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But I also started selling into it
and for some clients also, and
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we've been meet a gating risks for
our clients. We have inverse funds on.
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We have some covered calls for those
that want it. We have raised
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cash. We have more of a
cash position now than we ever had.
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Stocks that have really run, we've
paired back, We've trimmed the positions.
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They keep running, we trim them. If they fall back down, we'll
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aird back into them. You can't
sell everything. If you're sixty to forty
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investor, maybe you're down to forty
five percent, fifty percent. If you're
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really scared, then may be forty
percent. But if you're mitigating risk,
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you don't have to go down that
much because it automatically brings you down on
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00:19:17.559 --> 00:19:22.680
how much exposure you have to risk. Government bonds is great right now,
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paying you some decent money. Marketing
money market's paying you nice decent money.
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So you sit and you make a
little bit of money from the money you've
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already made. There's nothing worse than
watching it go all the way up and
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coming down, and then when it
goes down then you have to hold through
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it. Isn't it nice? Wouldn't
you like to be in a position that
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eventually, when it does come down, you actually have cash to buy the
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good quality stocks that get beat up
that you go. Yes, you're gonna
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00:19:51.359 --> 00:19:55.599
lose. Everyone's gonna lose when the
market goes down, unless you're a trader
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short termed speculator. That's totally different. A a regular, balanced, conservative
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growth portfolio will always lose if the
markets go down, and they will make
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money when the markets go up.
They won't lose as much on the downside
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if you're mitigating risk, and they
won't make as much on the upside,
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but it keeps you in the ballgame. You make the real money when the
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market's actulutely do full and you have
the guts to step up and buy the
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quality and let them come back.
That's where the real money's made. Where's
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the real money lost with greed just
letting everything go go go, it's never
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gonna come back down. Next thing, you know, you're in a situation
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that you're down ten to fifteen percent
and you say, okay, if I
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just get back to here, i'll
get out, and a dozen that goes
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the other way, and now you're
stuck in a position and you don't know
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what to do. Most advisors on
the money managers, they know what to
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do if they're allowed to do it. But most advisors, financial advisors,
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they just tell you to sit through
it to come back. That's true because
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it does come back, but guess
what, how many years and the stress
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that you go through when you're retired
is not worth it. You got to
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think like a sixty plus seventy plus
eighty year old plus person and understand the
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stress of losing your money and not
having enough money because you don't have enough
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time for it to come back is
not worth the stress. So if you
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mitigate the risk, which is what
I think you should be doing by putting
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more in the cash right now,
waiting, trimming back positions, maybe having
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a re inverse position on a lot
of different things you can do, depending
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what your financial advisor tells you do
it. The one thing though I don't
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agree with is that people say,
well, you know what you should do
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if you're afraid of the market,
take your risk money out and put in
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an annuity. You can't lose and
you can only make it money if the
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markets go up. That doesn't give
you the ability if the markets go down
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to take advantage of opportunities. It
keeps you right in there. And if
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you make four three four percent on
the low side, six or seven percent
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on the upside, which would be
unbelievably great, that's fine. The problem
249
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I have with annuities they take the
caps where they are now, which are
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high because interest rates are high.
And if interest rates come down, which
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they keep talking about, guess what
the insurance company gets to do. They
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get to lower the caps, which
means you are limited to how much you
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make on the way back. Sure, you don't lose money if the markets
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go down twenty to thirty percent,
but if they come back ten, fifteen,
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twenty, thirty, forty percent,
you're also going to only be averaging
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three percent, four percent. Maybe
the caps come all the way down and
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they have the law allows them to
adjust it their their prospectus. And if
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you ever read a prospect this or
see all the fees and annuities, you
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know the reason you want an annuity
either is for guaranteed income at some time,
260
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which I think they're great for because
they will guarantee you a lifetime income.
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Or the might is which you're giving
you tax deferred interest, which is
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over five percent right now, and
if you have a ton of money,
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you put more money away for retirement. A variable annuity is great because you
264
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won't have to pay taxes on it. It's like an extra four to one
265
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k for you with no limitations.
So there are areas that they're really good
266
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at. But just because you don't
you don't like the market and you don't
267
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want to lose and you want to
make something. The upside go in a
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government bond is going to pay you
more over time, and it doesn't change
269
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the interest rate on you. It
doesn't move down, it doesn't cap you
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out. It's amazing how many people
are pushing products one way to the other.
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What you want is a full plan, a full allocation that meets your
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goals and your needs, and that's
what we do. We'll be back.
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It's the Money Matter Show. I
hope you having a fun Easter. We'll
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be back right now in a few
seven minutes. Welcome back everybody on this
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Easter Sunday. I hope you having
a fun day today. We have everybody.
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We have Dave, we have Dylan, we have Todd and myself Dean.
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Yeah, we've got a special guests
on the show later as well,
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so excited to hear from him.
Obviously. The event's going to happen this
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week in two days, so this
is the last opportunity you have to sign
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00:24:49.559 --> 00:24:52.160
up for it. Give us a
call at five to zero five four four
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00:24:52.240 --> 00:24:56.079
four nine zero nine. We've talked
a lot about it on the show,
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so you can go to our website
and all the information is there, and
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00:24:59.640 --> 00:25:03.839
we hope to see everyone there for
an annual event. We've got about ten
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spots left, I think, so
fust ten income yep, been filling it
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fast. Yes, it has been
the big headline this past week came out
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of Baltimore. Huh. I think
that's probably the biggest story of the week,
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probably, I don't think. Yeah, do you think back on it
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to the biggest maritime disaster in history
from an insurance point of view? Fording
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to Lloyd's yep, I mean the
saying is going to hit everybody, and
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they don't know how yet. They
don't have a number figure yet, right
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because they're talking about the ships that
are stuck in the port, the chips
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that we're trying to get into the
port. Is it going to just affect
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the auto industry because that Baltimore Port's
the largest auto industry. The port use
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and for light trucks and regular cars, and then you got all the other
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stuff going on the eleventh largest port
in the country. Yeah, the auto
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industry was the big concern. Initially
they said, no big deal. They've
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shifted everything to Georgia. They said, not a big and that's I mean,
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you're talking like Mercedes Benz who that's
one of theirs. Folkswagen says it's
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not a big all the European companies
says, not a big deal, and
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then the Asian companies it's not a
big deal. You know, it's crazy.
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Did you see that ship they were
stacked? What those the the U
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six high six seven high straight across
ten and they're going to Asia. Right,
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Okay, I've been on some cruises. The water gets pretty rough there.
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I didn't see any sides on that
thing. How do they how do
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they not fall off in something?
And it happened a couple of times.
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I feel that you see like them
just the wind the waves tilted so it
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falls off. I mean, you
gotta think how massive that ship is got
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to be so heavy that I don't
care. Yeah, those waves are massive
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and and and it goes back and
forth. Let's put it just there,
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not going Have you ever been on
a cruise how heavier? Though I know
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how heavy I am, and I've
walked down the aisle of going to my
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womb. You just compared yourself to
a ship. You do that to yourself,
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right, okay? But you on
a on a cruise ship that's supposed
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to have stabilization and it has wolves
going back and forth to the walls because
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the seas are rough. It's pretty
tough and I'm not falling over if it
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was like that, if it was
a big issue, I feel like we've
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hearing about this. They change,
they would have changed the design you're talking
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about it. They probably would be
locked. I just want to know if
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somebody knows called me and tell me, are they locked to the bottom or
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they locked at the top but they
attached to something. They have to all
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be locked together and then it's locked
to the bottom. So if they're all
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swaying, you have to tip the
whole ship over. They shipped this all
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around the world. It was the
first somebody. I haven't really analyzed it,
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but I think it's a very low
center of gravity too. There's gotta
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be something going on in front of
the water, right, There's gotta be
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something going on under the water,
the bulkheaders, something that that keeps that
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in balanced, because being you're right
you're looking at it looks very top heavy.
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00:27:48.720 --> 00:27:51.279
You don't least I admit I don't
know, And you guys are coming
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00:27:51.359 --> 00:27:53.720
up with feelies that you then you
don't know either. It could be true
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you're just saying that you're What we're
saying is we know that it's obviously a
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good design because they haven't changed it. I just wonder how that, you
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know, I thought maybe that was
going up to miss I looked at that
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that's going to Asia. It's like
that show how it works, like they
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00:28:08.400 --> 00:28:11.440
used to have on Discovery, the
huge and that's why I took the Evergreen
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so long to get a dog a
lot of money to put that bridge back
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together. Oh yeah, yeah,
that collaporation. The word part is the
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00:28:18.839 --> 00:28:23.079
ship was relatively new in in ship
world, right, it's a relatively new
338
00:28:23.119 --> 00:28:26.720
ship, didn't They say the power
went out and that you can kind of
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00:28:26.759 --> 00:28:27.759
see the lights go out, or
you do see the light go out,
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00:28:27.799 --> 00:28:33.440
lights go out twice and then the
current hear something that video video of this,
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00:28:33.680 --> 00:28:36.319
Well, half of them i've heard. In the half of them,
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00:28:36.359 --> 00:28:40.119
I heard word AI generated videos.
They weren't real. You think they weren't
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00:28:40.160 --> 00:28:42.559
real, That's what I've heard.
I've heard half of them were actual videos.
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00:28:42.599 --> 00:28:47.359
The other half it's not actually how
because you don't know, I mean,
345
00:28:47.359 --> 00:28:49.200
they can just so the bridge intome
down. No, No, it's
346
00:28:49.200 --> 00:28:53.079
not what I'm saying out there and
stuff and like conspiracy theories already. And
347
00:28:53.119 --> 00:28:56.240
I think the most amazing part of
the whole thing is how Biden's been on
348
00:28:56.279 --> 00:29:00.880
that bridge many times by car and
train and there's no train tracks on that
349
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bridge. Oh did he say that? Yes, I've used that bridge many
350
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times between Delaware and Maryland and I've
been on there many times, both by
351
00:29:10.400 --> 00:29:12.319
car and by train, and there
is no training tracks on it. I
352
00:29:12.359 --> 00:29:15.920
didn't hear that. Yeah, there
are no train tracks on that bridge.
353
00:29:15.960 --> 00:29:21.160
And his world there is oh Man
alive. So the Bank America came up,
354
00:29:21.200 --> 00:29:25.680
Dean said, said the optimism amongst
professional investors right now is the highest
355
00:29:25.680 --> 00:29:33.920
since early twenty two, which ot
because I know professionals are not that optimistic
356
00:29:33.960 --> 00:29:37.200
the cautious. Well, there's the
highest it's ben since twenty twenty two.
357
00:29:37.240 --> 00:29:41.039
So apparently Bank of America survey,
which a professional investors. Yeah, I
358
00:29:41.039 --> 00:29:45.160
don't know, man, what are
they like so much? And if that's
359
00:29:45.160 --> 00:29:48.039
the case, I'm even more nervous. How about the market sitting new all
360
00:29:48.079 --> 00:29:51.599
time highs every single week, month
after month after month. That wouldn't be
361
00:29:51.839 --> 00:29:56.079
He's excited, wouldn't it The idea
that you have ai the potential profitability,
362
00:29:56.160 --> 00:29:59.319
you have the potential that we won't
see anymore rate hikes, maybe even rate
363
00:29:59.400 --> 00:30:03.519
cuts. What makes money markets?
What makes stocks go up? Money market
364
00:30:04.000 --> 00:30:07.640
earnings, It's always about it.
More money is what you always talk about.
365
00:30:07.759 --> 00:30:11.200
What you have to have money in
the system, and you also need
366
00:30:11.240 --> 00:30:15.240
to have money that's going to keep
pushing it forward, new money. Somehow
367
00:30:15.440 --> 00:30:19.839
the markets keep going higher. But
in my monologue I told you why I
368
00:30:21.079 --> 00:30:25.480
feel uncomfortable. I just feel it's
a house of cards, Dave, Okay,
369
00:30:25.519 --> 00:30:29.440
where if anything happens, there is
no underpinnings that it's going to be
370
00:30:29.480 --> 00:30:30.440
there, that they're going to do
it. Now. If we fall ten
371
00:30:30.519 --> 00:30:33.079
twelve percent, yeah, I do
think that money will to fly back.
372
00:30:33.200 --> 00:30:36.640
I wouldn't call it a house of
cards because the house of cards to me
373
00:30:36.640 --> 00:30:38.279
means, you know, forty fifty
percent decline. I don't see that.
374
00:30:38.720 --> 00:30:42.920
I don't see it right now,
David, there's a black swan event that
375
00:30:44.039 --> 00:30:47.960
hurts our economically, Yes it could. A black swan event could, right,
376
00:30:48.000 --> 00:30:51.079
but if you have if you but
if you had a good stabilization of
377
00:30:51.119 --> 00:30:56.359
our economy, we would fall,
but we would be protected and come back.
378
00:30:56.559 --> 00:31:00.599
Two thousand and eight is the same
type of feeling. Man. We
379
00:31:00.599 --> 00:31:03.480
were just giving out money, we
were just doing things, and when it
380
00:31:03.559 --> 00:31:07.759
came down and it collapsed, it
collapsed. I think there's gonna be buyers
381
00:31:07.799 --> 00:31:12.000
on any dip and less there is
some type of black swan event, a
382
00:31:12.079 --> 00:31:18.359
nine to eleven type thing. Presidential
assassinations and something crazy. Now that might
383
00:31:18.359 --> 00:31:21.640
be a c element to get a
rally off that. Of course, you
384
00:31:21.640 --> 00:31:23.920
definitely have the black Swan event.
But as Dave said, if you have
385
00:31:23.960 --> 00:31:29.240
a lower if they rate lower rates
at all, right, that money that's
386
00:31:29.240 --> 00:31:32.000
in the money market funds currently,
which we know they're at record levels,
387
00:31:32.079 --> 00:31:36.160
has to go somewhere. You think
it will go someplace. They'll be happy
388
00:31:36.200 --> 00:31:40.440
with the five percent, But they
don't step up right away. Everyone says
389
00:31:40.480 --> 00:31:45.759
that for sure, institutions, we
tail cells. They sell their mutual funds,
390
00:31:45.759 --> 00:31:48.319
they sell their four one K plans, and institutions wait for that to
391
00:31:48.359 --> 00:31:52.039
come down, which is what we
would do, and then we would be
392
00:31:52.079 --> 00:31:55.640
biased. Okay, they fear,
that's why they sell at the bottom.
393
00:31:56.240 --> 00:32:02.079
I just don't see how we sustain
in what we're doing. I think a
394
00:32:02.079 --> 00:32:06.359
lot of numbers are fake, to
be honest with you. The only number
395
00:32:06.480 --> 00:32:09.200
that I think is sustainable right now
that we're doing is a GDP number.
396
00:32:09.559 --> 00:32:13.400
And that's why I think this market's
going higher. They lie to us,
397
00:32:13.720 --> 00:32:15.799
well, the markets are going up
because of why, because they're gonna be
398
00:32:15.799 --> 00:32:20.559
because the Fed's gonna lower interstrates six
times this year. Well, if we
399
00:32:20.640 --> 00:32:23.880
believe that FED wasn't gonna low interest
rates, why would we believe the markets
400
00:32:23.920 --> 00:32:28.359
would go up to make new heights
constantly. So there's number one that makes
401
00:32:28.400 --> 00:32:30.680
me nervous. Okay, we give
out money all across the world and just
402
00:32:30.759 --> 00:32:36.200
increasing our debt, and sometime that's
gonna be a problem. Number two.
403
00:32:36.799 --> 00:32:40.400
Number three, our borders and sieves
everyone's coming in right now. Don't tell
404
00:32:40.440 --> 00:32:44.400
me we can't have a terrorist attack
on our own land at some time.
405
00:32:45.160 --> 00:32:49.559
Okay, there's reasons to be that, But that doesn't mean we don't want
406
00:32:49.559 --> 00:32:52.839
to invest. That means we mitigate
risk as we go higher. We don't
407
00:32:52.839 --> 00:32:57.720
have to be fully invested here.
We're still making money, I agree,
408
00:32:57.880 --> 00:33:00.440
but we have cash if it comes
down. If you get fully invested,
409
00:33:00.799 --> 00:33:02.680
and and and and and you and
control your own thing, that's great.
410
00:33:02.839 --> 00:33:07.480
But if you're managing money for people, okay, it saw a responsibility to
411
00:33:07.880 --> 00:33:13.720
look at what we feel and where
we are and make sure that if there's
412
00:33:14.000 --> 00:33:19.000
it's caution, we're cautious. Okay. And and and getting five percent in
413
00:33:19.000 --> 00:33:22.559
the money market right now is a
nice safe haven. When the stock just
414
00:33:22.559 --> 00:33:24.319
went up twenty percent in two days, you know, the first quarter was
415
00:33:24.359 --> 00:33:29.799
the best first quarter for stock since
twenty nineteen. So back and looks and
416
00:33:30.279 --> 00:33:36.359
what happened in twenty nineteen from March
thirty first to December thirty first, Right,
417
00:33:37.000 --> 00:33:40.960
not the history repeats itself, but
you can fourteen percent more. Yeah,
418
00:33:42.319 --> 00:33:45.319
in twenty nineteen from twelve from three
thirty one to the end of the
419
00:33:45.400 --> 00:33:46.960
year. Since we're on history,
every time the S and P have had
420
00:33:47.000 --> 00:33:52.319
a five month winstrenk twelve months later, the average return is twelve point five
421
00:33:52.359 --> 00:33:55.640
percent higher. Yeah, it's higher, ninety fIF I think there's a I
422
00:33:55.680 --> 00:34:00.559
think you can have a pullback at
any time here. I think the pullback
423
00:34:00.559 --> 00:34:02.680
will be bought and then I think
that Trump wins in the market. Trally
424
00:34:02.720 --> 00:34:07.000
Wells saying that pullbacks is probably going
to be all that cash from the money
425
00:34:07.000 --> 00:34:07.920
markets is going to go win to
the market. You know, we haven't
426
00:34:08.000 --> 00:34:12.960
had a two percent pullback since we
started this rally, right two percent?
427
00:34:13.199 --> 00:34:16.119
Yeah, yeah, that's crazy.
Now it's not normal. But to your
428
00:34:16.119 --> 00:34:22.280
point being, the ratio of corporate
insider selling in the in the tech stocks
429
00:34:22.360 --> 00:34:24.679
hit its highest level in three years, right, So okay, no one's
430
00:34:24.679 --> 00:34:29.440
getting on to your pick your poison, right right, No, but it's
431
00:34:29.519 --> 00:34:31.400
natural to take some profits, I
think in this Yeah, in this maybe
432
00:34:31.440 --> 00:34:36.639
it's not natural, but it's smart. It's hard to take profits. Stock
433
00:34:36.719 --> 00:34:40.000
go up a number thirty points,
like, it's not normal? Micron Okay,
434
00:34:40.119 --> 00:34:45.599
since its earnings gone up twenty five
percent in three trading days, are
435
00:34:45.639 --> 00:34:50.280
you kidding me? You know?
It's like you you hope that over two
436
00:34:50.400 --> 00:34:52.719
years your stock can go up twenty
five percent. Be happy, take some
437
00:34:52.800 --> 00:34:55.400
of that off the table. Well, the first quarter S and P five
438
00:34:55.480 --> 00:34:59.800
hundred was up ten point two percent. The average rate of return per year
439
00:35:00.039 --> 00:35:02.400
for history ten percent, yeah,
per year. All right, let's look
440
00:35:02.400 --> 00:35:07.320
at this. I'll give you another
thing, Apple, greatest stock that's out
441
00:35:07.320 --> 00:35:12.800
there right in this whole rally,
Apple's down from one hundred and ninety something
442
00:35:12.800 --> 00:35:16.079
down to one seven. Yeah,
so even the best of the best can
443
00:35:16.079 --> 00:35:21.599
come down in this. Mitigate your
risk, take money off the table when
444
00:35:21.639 --> 00:35:24.400
these things are going out crazy,
and then look for the opportunities to do
445
00:35:24.480 --> 00:35:28.159
them. If you're just in the
natural ones that are just going up to
446
00:35:28.320 --> 00:35:30.800
three percent, you don't have to
do anything. We're talking about these things
447
00:35:30.960 --> 00:35:35.719
that you're luckily enough that just jumps
off and goes up twenty twenty five,
448
00:35:35.800 --> 00:35:39.280
thirty fifty. The talk of the
year is do you own video or not?
449
00:35:40.639 --> 00:35:45.639
I started trimming it. We'll see. We'll be back and I'll tell
450
00:35:45.639 --> 00:35:47.920
you what I'm going into if I'm
trimming the video right after we take this
451
00:35:47.960 --> 00:35:52.880
short break. Thanks for listening.
Welcome back everybody. It's the Money Minter
452
00:35:52.920 --> 00:35:55.519
Show. We appreciate your listening and
being part of what we do here.
453
00:35:58.039 --> 00:36:01.280
You know, remember Tuesday, we
have some We've got a few more spots
454
00:36:01.280 --> 00:36:06.840
that are open. Yeah, we'll
give you a lunch too. And uh
455
00:36:06.960 --> 00:36:09.599
and uh, we're gonna talk a
lot. We're gonna talk about the markets.
456
00:36:09.599 --> 00:36:13.599
We're gonna talk about, uh,
why you need the plan. We're
457
00:36:13.599 --> 00:36:16.079
gonna talk about how you plan.
Uh. We have our accountants with us,
458
00:36:16.079 --> 00:36:20.679
we have our state planners with us. UH. And they're gonna talk
459
00:36:20.719 --> 00:36:24.559
about whether Biden gets in, Trump
gets in, what the tax consequences are,
460
00:36:24.559 --> 00:36:29.840
because taxes are gonna becoming very important. And if you guys listen to
461
00:36:29.880 --> 00:36:34.239
the morning show. Now it used
to be uh, Garrett Lewis, Garrett
462
00:36:34.280 --> 00:36:37.639
Lewis, and now it's J.
T. Harris and he's gonna I invited
463
00:36:37.719 --> 00:36:40.000
him to come by. I want
to see what he's all about. You
464
00:36:40.079 --> 00:36:44.800
know, obviously change isn't always the
most fun, but you know that he
465
00:36:44.960 --> 00:36:47.079
is the morning guy now and he
has some things to say and talk about.
466
00:36:47.119 --> 00:36:50.559
So uh, let's give him a
chance. Those of you that are
467
00:36:50.559 --> 00:36:52.840
coming, we'll get to meet him
personally. And I look forward to seeing
468
00:36:52.920 --> 00:36:57.840
them and and and and talking to
him, seeing where where his mind is
469
00:36:57.880 --> 00:37:00.519
and stuff. I got a couple
of clients come in the door this week
470
00:37:00.559 --> 00:37:04.840
that we're coming in specifically for rm
D strategies. This client had rm DS
471
00:37:04.880 --> 00:37:07.320
coming up next year and wanted to
know, is there anything that you could
472
00:37:07.320 --> 00:37:10.719
do now before potentially some of the
things that is coming about in twenty twenty
473
00:37:10.719 --> 00:37:14.639
six, when all the tax brackets
are going to be increased by around two
474
00:37:14.639 --> 00:37:17.480
percent if the current Tax Act isn't
extended by whoever gets in office. So
475
00:37:19.159 --> 00:37:22.320
his idea was, well, hey, let's just do a rock conversion now.
476
00:37:22.360 --> 00:37:24.840
If I have to pay taxes anyways, just do it now. Make
477
00:37:24.880 --> 00:37:28.679
sure that I'm not above my medicare
brackets. I don't change anything from a
478
00:37:28.679 --> 00:37:30.760
Medicare perspective. I don't change anything
from a tax bracket perspective, but I
479
00:37:30.800 --> 00:37:35.199
want to try to take something to
lower my arm ds in future years when
480
00:37:35.639 --> 00:37:38.280
potentially they're going to be paid at
higher tax brackets. So that's just one
481
00:37:38.280 --> 00:37:42.280
of the strategies we'll be discussing,
and we'll have a lot of other ones
482
00:37:42.320 --> 00:37:45.719
as well. But that's why,
again we always harp on the financial plan
483
00:37:45.760 --> 00:37:50.559
because with our tool we can actually
get as close as we can, obviously
484
00:37:50.559 --> 00:37:52.320
with the help of a tax account
too, being as efficient as we can
485
00:37:52.360 --> 00:37:57.760
in taxes. I think one of
the things we had more calls on this
486
00:37:57.800 --> 00:38:02.320
week than anything is d Whack.
Yeah, that's the the special purpose acquisition
487
00:38:02.440 --> 00:38:10.320
company that that Trump is involved with, a special a spack that allowed the
488
00:38:10.360 --> 00:38:16.360
true social to come public and shareholders
a proved merger of that company with former
489
00:38:16.400 --> 00:38:22.599
President Donald Trump's social media company,
Trump Media and Technology. Trump Media started
490
00:38:22.599 --> 00:38:29.800
trading Tuesday under the ticker d JT, and my goodness jumped for before it
491
00:38:29.920 --> 00:38:36.199
converted to jump sixty percent after conversion. Trump owns nearly five billion dollars worth
492
00:38:36.239 --> 00:38:39.960
of that stock, and you've got
to be careful. But remember he cannot
493
00:38:39.960 --> 00:38:44.039
sell that stock for six months.
He can if the company will allow him
494
00:38:44.079 --> 00:38:46.119
to. He can he can petition
the company and they can allow him to
495
00:38:46.119 --> 00:38:50.000
do that. It's not a federal
rig. It's a company rig. It's
496
00:38:50.039 --> 00:38:53.119
it's yeah. On c NBC they
were talking that that what what he should
497
00:38:53.119 --> 00:38:57.920
do is call the company and have
them release that stock to be sold.
498
00:38:59.679 --> 00:39:02.360
I thought the sec when you come
out on your public or maybe because it's
499
00:39:02.360 --> 00:39:05.960
a spack, it's different. Could
be no, I pos you can't.
500
00:39:06.159 --> 00:39:08.239
I get that fact it's been public. Do that's to keep it? That's
501
00:39:08.320 --> 00:39:14.119
that's doing the company a favor by
keeping the stock stable. So perhaps the
502
00:39:14.199 --> 00:39:15.639
company can. I mean, I
don't know why you talk about it on
503
00:39:15.719 --> 00:39:20.480
CNBC that he should be here.
Let me let me pay that debt or
504
00:39:20.519 --> 00:39:24.840
that fraud fine million? Yea.
Why they started talking about it exactly exactly
505
00:39:24.840 --> 00:39:28.360
that you know, if you got
to come up with two hundred billion or
506
00:39:28.360 --> 00:39:30.440
two hundred million or four hundred million, whatever it is, you have five
507
00:39:30.519 --> 00:39:35.599
billion bucks sitting here. But you
know, we had a number of people
508
00:39:35.599 --> 00:39:37.920
call I had one call that said, you want to open an account to
509
00:39:37.000 --> 00:39:40.960
buy that, just to buy DJT. You know, and regardless of what
510
00:39:42.000 --> 00:39:45.559
you think about Trump, be careful. The market cap of this stock is
511
00:39:45.960 --> 00:39:51.880
double the value of Twitter. It's
double the value of Twitter, and they
512
00:39:51.880 --> 00:39:57.039
have five percent as many people on
it as Twitter does. It's just it's
513
00:39:57.119 --> 00:40:02.280
just insane. Eight point nine nine
million people total have signed up for the
514
00:40:02.679 --> 00:40:09.679
Trump network. Twitter has two hundred
and thirty eight million active users, and
515
00:40:09.719 --> 00:40:19.719
the Trump stock is double what Twitter
is their total revenue Trump Trump's social total
516
00:40:19.760 --> 00:40:23.920
revenue in twenty twenty three with three
million dollars the total revenue. The stock
517
00:40:24.000 --> 00:40:29.880
honestly is probably worth something in the
pennies, right, and it closed around
518
00:40:29.920 --> 00:40:35.320
sixty dollars roughly. Yeah, be
careful is the only thing I'd say about
519
00:40:35.320 --> 00:40:38.719
that. The value is not there. If you think that it's going to
520
00:40:38.880 --> 00:40:45.079
pop as Trump does better and you
want to be involved in that, understand
521
00:40:45.199 --> 00:40:50.079
that it's honestly is a casino.
It is not investing. It is gambling.
522
00:40:50.400 --> 00:40:52.199
Yeah, that sounds like mean coins
and all that it does, and
523
00:40:52.320 --> 00:40:58.800
it's it's it's it's like when when
all you have the crypto coins with the
524
00:40:58.880 --> 00:41:01.440
Elon name attacks attached to it,
and they would just skyrock at one hundred
525
00:41:01.440 --> 00:41:05.719
percent overnight just because I had an
Elon on it. If you want to
526
00:41:05.719 --> 00:41:09.159
be involved, you know you love
Trump, but whatever, just to be
527
00:41:09.239 --> 00:41:15.280
careful, it is, it isn't
worth anywhere near sixty dollars investing fundament investing
528
00:41:15.320 --> 00:41:19.400
in a company they let Trump sell
his shares, that stock's going to tank
529
00:41:19.440 --> 00:41:22.639
too, exactly if they if they
opened it ups let himself some shares of
530
00:41:22.840 --> 00:41:27.079
that stocks down very quickly, and
and and there is no you can't well,
531
00:41:27.159 --> 00:41:30.920
fundamentally it's worth at least no,
fundamentally is worth almost nothing with a
532
00:41:30.960 --> 00:41:37.119
three million in total revenue, and
that doesn't include expenses to get the revenue,
533
00:41:37.239 --> 00:41:40.519
so they're not making any money.
The other one I thought was kind
534
00:41:40.519 --> 00:41:44.440
of cool krispy Kreme. Dean,
you and I remember krispy Kreme back in
535
00:41:44.480 --> 00:41:46.400
the day. It was all the
hot rage and the stock was going crazy
536
00:41:46.440 --> 00:41:49.920
and people couldn't get enough of it. And next thing you know, it's
537
00:41:49.960 --> 00:41:52.880
bankrupt and it's bought by private equity
and they bring it back public and it
538
00:41:52.960 --> 00:42:00.679
was on his way to going bankrupt
again. The McDonald's and they're going to
539
00:42:00.719 --> 00:42:05.440
serve Kris donald is going to offer
krispy Kreme at all of their restaurants.
540
00:42:05.760 --> 00:42:08.000
Now. It's going to take him
until twenty twenty five to get it completely
541
00:42:08.079 --> 00:42:12.719
rolled out, but they've been doing
it in test markets. And I don't
542
00:42:12.760 --> 00:42:15.599
know what that does to the value
of Krispy Kreme, but in my mind,
543
00:42:15.679 --> 00:42:19.199
it certainly makes it worth fifty percent
more than it was before that announcement.
544
00:42:20.239 --> 00:42:23.360
If you're going to double your sales, yeah, which is what's going
545
00:42:23.440 --> 00:42:28.280
to do. Yeah, Yeah,
it's gonna that should help Christmy Kreme for
546
00:42:28.320 --> 00:42:34.000
sure. Pretty significant and literally is
going to double the Krispy Kreme distribution.
547
00:42:34.760 --> 00:42:37.440
Stock jumped up to eighteen dollars.
Thing was twelve, jumped up to eighteen,
548
00:42:37.519 --> 00:42:40.880
then drifted back down to around fifteen. That's one to keep an eye
549
00:42:40.920 --> 00:42:45.280
on. I think there's probably some
some stuff there. Disney, one of
550
00:42:45.320 --> 00:42:50.320
the worst performing stocks last year on
the Dow, just keeps going. It
551
00:42:50.440 --> 00:42:53.800
just keeps going, jump twenty eight
percent already this year. Hit an eighteen
552
00:42:53.840 --> 00:42:58.880
month high on Monday after Barclay's raised
the stock to a buy. Where you've
553
00:42:58.880 --> 00:43:01.719
been, you know, saying there's
more to come. Well, they also
554
00:43:01.840 --> 00:43:07.119
Florida and Disney also settled the litigation
between that Don't Say Gay Act that was
555
00:43:07.159 --> 00:43:10.639
going on and all that stuff,
so that helped Disney. It's been overhanging
556
00:43:10.639 --> 00:43:14.639
it, you know, I don't
know, Todd. I think I remember
557
00:43:14.679 --> 00:43:20.840
somebody owes me as Jami Sandwich for
that. That's probably four now. So
558
00:43:22.400 --> 00:43:25.519
remember it was down there. I
was never going to hit ninety. Yeah,
559
00:43:25.559 --> 00:43:28.960
I look where it is. Yeah, no, yeah, you know
560
00:43:29.000 --> 00:43:30.480
who it is. You know,
if you're listening, you know who you
561
00:43:30.559 --> 00:43:34.559
are. You're right. I'll still
take that Pastawmi Sandwich. Hey. You
562
00:43:34.599 --> 00:43:37.880
know what's secretly comeback is Raytheon.
It's been kind of quiet, but it's
563
00:43:37.920 --> 00:43:43.559
back up to ninety seven high ninety
yeah, and it's you know, you
564
00:43:43.679 --> 00:43:45.800
just kind of forget about it.
But it was, you know, all
565
00:43:45.840 --> 00:43:49.360
the way down it was but sixty
one, Yeah, it got down.
566
00:43:49.639 --> 00:43:52.119
It was ridiculous. We were talking
about it a lot on the radio.
567
00:43:52.239 --> 00:43:58.400
Stocks that got beat up that we
said, opportunity Target have comeback, right,
568
00:43:58.519 --> 00:44:01.159
Target talking come back. It's when
got down to twenties, it's what
569
00:44:01.360 --> 00:44:09.880
sixty something? Uh Disney right,
the quality companies Dave people wonder if they
570
00:44:09.880 --> 00:44:14.719
were not in the other stocks,
here will opportunities for him? Was that?
571
00:44:14.800 --> 00:44:21.760
With that said, former Dallas doc
Walgreens YEP cannot catch a break down
572
00:44:21.800 --> 00:44:24.239
thirty two percent in the last twelve
months, lowered at the open on Tuesday,
573
00:44:24.280 --> 00:44:30.000
after Bank of America and Morgan Stanley
both lowered their price targets and maintained
574
00:44:30.000 --> 00:44:32.920
a cell rating. They blew away
earnings. Yeah, they they came out
575
00:44:32.920 --> 00:44:37.119
of narrowed guidance. Yeah, that's
why. God, you guys are taking
576
00:44:37.119 --> 00:44:40.840
all my thunder. That's and guess
what on Thursday they blew away earnings,
577
00:44:42.039 --> 00:44:47.039
but they lowered guidance. Stock just
cannot catch a break. Just get jellan
578
00:44:47.119 --> 00:44:50.679
You were saying, Oh, and
I was just gonna talk about Boeing.
579
00:44:50.920 --> 00:44:52.880
Their CEO stepped down or is going
to step down, and then uh,
580
00:44:53.599 --> 00:44:58.280
at the end of twenty four their
chairman of the board will not stand for
581
00:44:58.320 --> 00:45:01.880
reelection. They're president of Chief Executive
Bowen's commercial airplane unit. It's stepping down
582
00:45:01.880 --> 00:45:06.480
immediately. So they having a huge
management shake up because of all this issues
583
00:45:06.519 --> 00:45:10.599
that they've been having with the Max
playing that with that whole we tore that
584
00:45:10.639 --> 00:45:15.079
flew off. Yeah, and then
United CEO is urging them to stop production
585
00:45:15.159 --> 00:45:16.519
on the Max ten, which is
their new plane, because it hasn't been
586
00:45:16.519 --> 00:45:21.039
cleared by the FA and there's no
timeline on when it will be cleared.
587
00:45:21.239 --> 00:45:22.960
So they wanted to stop. Airbus
is pissed off with them too, because
588
00:45:23.039 --> 00:45:27.159
now they got to over check everything
on theirs and they're nervous that's going to
589
00:45:27.199 --> 00:45:31.000
happen because Bowen's just worried more about
shareholder value than the safety of the planes
590
00:45:31.400 --> 00:45:34.880
in the last couple of years,
and that's how long the CEO has been
591
00:45:34.920 --> 00:45:38.599
there. So we said last a
lot of issues last weekend. Last week
592
00:45:38.599 --> 00:45:42.400
we on the show, we said
that they were having a meeting with the
593
00:45:42.480 --> 00:45:45.679
executives and didn't include the CEO and
that could mean trouble. Well, guess
594
00:45:45.679 --> 00:45:51.880
what, early early last week,
the CEO is gone. But the problem,
595
00:45:52.000 --> 00:45:54.079
the problem being, here's the problem. He's not leaving until the end
596
00:45:54.079 --> 00:45:58.000
of this year. Yeah, that's
a long time from now. It's not
597
00:45:58.079 --> 00:46:01.000
because there's so much stuff. Nice
huge company, Dave, you know,
598
00:46:05.039 --> 00:46:08.480
obviously he has to take the responsibility
and accountability for it. Think about how
599
00:46:08.480 --> 00:46:13.280
big that company is, all the
manufactured places it is. At the end
600
00:46:13.320 --> 00:46:16.360
of the day, it's the work
ethic of the people that are supposed to
601
00:46:16.360 --> 00:46:22.079
be doing their jobs. Well,
they got to increase safety regulations and inspections,
602
00:46:22.239 --> 00:46:24.559
right, that's what that's where it
comes out again, that's their jobs,
603
00:46:24.599 --> 00:46:29.280
the inspectors and stuff have to look
at it and make sure it's right.
604
00:46:29.360 --> 00:46:30.679
Yeah, they can be a culture
set from the top sometimes too,
605
00:46:30.840 --> 00:46:35.320
it's not always. So he took
over because the other CEO had to step
606
00:46:35.360 --> 00:46:37.920
down after the two crashes two or
three years ago, and then this guy
607
00:46:37.960 --> 00:46:42.480
took over, So you're gonna step
down once all this, But whoever keeps
608
00:46:42.519 --> 00:46:45.559
running is not doing well. There's
something going else going on in the company.
609
00:46:45.559 --> 00:46:49.480
If they keep having the same issues
with different leadership saying some dollers,
610
00:46:49.639 --> 00:46:52.920
they're not doing their job. At
the end of the day. The CEO
611
00:46:52.159 --> 00:46:55.559
isn't tightening the bolts, making sure
the doors are on, making sure they're
612
00:46:55.559 --> 00:46:59.719
doing everything they're supposed to do.
He's just keeping the people who make sure
613
00:46:59.760 --> 00:47:07.440
that that happens accountable, initial to
accountable, because it's just that job.
614
00:47:07.639 --> 00:47:10.480
Thousands of planes going all over the
time, and you're just saying it's their
615
00:47:10.559 --> 00:47:14.719
job to inspect. It's the CEO's
job to control it, right, and
616
00:47:14.760 --> 00:47:19.039
when it's not, you think he
is okay, Well, how about getting
617
00:47:19.079 --> 00:47:22.119
rid of the inspectors too. Then
he probably did. Like a football team
618
00:47:22.320 --> 00:47:24.599
head coaches, you lose the locker
room. Yeah, you lose the locker
619
00:47:24.679 --> 00:47:28.039
m in the football team, you're
gone. You can't replace the entire football
620
00:47:28.039 --> 00:47:30.639
team. He's lost a lot.
There's only twenty two. You know that
621
00:47:30.239 --> 00:47:34.760
you got twenty thousand. Well,
here's let me back into the Money back
622
00:47:34.760 --> 00:47:37.079
the show. Thanks for listening,
Welcome back. We'll listening to the Money
623
00:47:37.119 --> 00:47:40.159
Matters Show. This is the second
hour for those of you just tuning in.
624
00:47:40.679 --> 00:47:43.960
The Dow was up point eight percent
for the week. The S and
625
00:47:44.000 --> 00:47:46.519
P five hundred was up point four
the NAZAC was down point three and then
626
00:47:46.559 --> 00:47:50.719
Russell two thousand was up two and
a half percent. Then then the equal
627
00:47:50.760 --> 00:47:53.159
weighted S and P five hundred was
up one point seven percent. We ended
628
00:47:53.159 --> 00:47:58.239
the first quarter which was the best
first quarter since twenty nineteen. So you're
629
00:47:58.280 --> 00:48:00.519
to date, the Dow is up
five and a percent, the nazac's up
630
00:48:00.800 --> 00:48:05.360
nine percent, the SMP's up ten
percent, the Russell two thousand is up
631
00:48:05.440 --> 00:48:08.079
five percent, and the equal weighted
s P five hundred is up seven percent.
632
00:48:08.679 --> 00:48:13.880
How about that equal weighted the rotation
we've been waiting for. Haven't we
633
00:48:14.000 --> 00:48:16.840
look at the Nasdaq versus that aren't
there equal weighted? Right? I mean
634
00:48:16.880 --> 00:48:21.719
that's in NASA. I haven't seen
that big of a divergence in a long
635
00:48:21.800 --> 00:48:25.400
time, very seldom that has the
RSP. The equal weighted beat the NASDAK
636
00:48:25.480 --> 00:48:29.239
over the last twelve months, very
seldom. Look at the month right,
637
00:48:29.280 --> 00:48:31.320
equal weighted up four point one,
NASDAK only up one point eight. Yeah,
638
00:48:31.679 --> 00:48:35.559
amazing, absolutely amazing. So you
are starting to see that, and
639
00:48:35.800 --> 00:48:39.199
it's interesting to see Russell two thousand
gets such a bid this week two point
640
00:48:39.199 --> 00:48:43.920
five percent higher. Lagging badly,
very badly, lagging badly. So it's
641
00:48:43.920 --> 00:48:46.960
a little bit of a ketchup going
on there. Ther the equal weighted out
642
00:48:47.480 --> 00:48:52.000
keeps saying RSP, that's the simple
equal weighted out performing the NASDAK means that
643
00:48:52.119 --> 00:48:57.159
this rally is broadening out, and
that's what we wanted to see. Yeah,
644
00:48:57.199 --> 00:49:00.159
we didn't like when it was just
concentrated on the seven stocks. I
645
00:49:00.159 --> 00:49:02.159
got a comment from a client this
week. They said that you keep hearing
646
00:49:02.440 --> 00:49:07.000
the value trade. It's so attractive, it's so valuable, but will it
647
00:49:07.039 --> 00:49:12.719
ever happen? Yeah, it's a
fair point. And if you look at
648
00:49:12.760 --> 00:49:15.280
it, and it makes sense that
you should be in this field, but
649
00:49:15.320 --> 00:49:19.119
it just doesn't move. We've been
saying it for several months and finally starting
650
00:49:19.159 --> 00:49:22.519
to happen. You mentioned last week
that the number one was it the number
651
00:49:22.519 --> 00:49:27.719
one commodity or the number one investment
you're to date? Well, I think
652
00:49:27.719 --> 00:49:34.159
it's commodity. Number one has to
be Coco. That's true. It was.
653
00:49:34.199 --> 00:49:38.599
Coco was up one hundred percent,
and actually it hit ten thousand dollars
654
00:49:39.039 --> 00:49:43.920
per metric ton for the first time
in history last week, which is more
655
00:49:43.960 --> 00:49:46.159
than double what it was a year
ago, which is not good news for
656
00:49:46.239 --> 00:49:51.360
herstory. The stock is near a
two year low. Guess what happened when
657
00:49:51.360 --> 00:49:55.800
they released that news. Hershey rally
and a rallied for three consecutive days.
658
00:49:57.239 --> 00:50:00.199
And it makes you think that's the
kind of thing I'm looking for, or
659
00:50:00.719 --> 00:50:04.760
when I'm thinking the stock is sold
out, one of those one of those
660
00:50:04.840 --> 00:50:08.320
like Dean talked about, of the
disneys, the targets. Why would anyone
661
00:50:08.360 --> 00:50:13.239
want this? But maybe that is
the bottom. And when you think of
662
00:50:13.239 --> 00:50:15.119
Hershey's, you think of the chocolate
bar, but they own so many snacks.
663
00:50:15.159 --> 00:50:19.079
It's not just the chocolate bar,
right, Hershey's is a conglomerate and
664
00:50:19.079 --> 00:50:21.960
they own a lot of different stack
brands, seasoned dividends, so you have
665
00:50:22.039 --> 00:50:24.199
time to wait. Speaking of decent
dividends, with time to wait to another
666
00:50:24.239 --> 00:50:28.800
stock that just started to break out
this week is Ford, Yes, it
667
00:50:28.840 --> 00:50:32.039
did. Ford has been struggling,
struggling, struggling, and thirteen dollars has
668
00:50:32.079 --> 00:50:37.559
been the top and it broke through
thirteen dollars, which now from a technical
669
00:50:37.599 --> 00:50:40.199
point of view, Dean means you
should should run. Well, they would
670
00:50:40.199 --> 00:50:45.320
have. Uh they reduced the EV
and get big at the hybrids. Did
671
00:50:45.320 --> 00:50:52.320
they big into hybrids? M just
say, you know the Japanese now that
672
00:50:52.480 --> 00:50:55.960
that's a good transition, is going
from combustion to hybrid then go to EV.
673
00:50:57.199 --> 00:51:00.119
Right, did you see the end? Is what a fifty five you
674
00:51:00.239 --> 00:51:02.199
low with something? Yeah, but
it was there a couple months ago,
675
00:51:02.280 --> 00:51:05.480
so they're making it look like it
just happened. But yeah, it's at
676
00:51:05.480 --> 00:51:08.239
what one fifty to one? And
that's the point where they think the Bank
677
00:51:08.280 --> 00:51:10.920
of Japan is going to be intervening
at this point. Right, So because
678
00:51:10.960 --> 00:51:15.199
they just got out of negative interest
rates for the first time in seventeen years,
679
00:51:15.360 --> 00:51:19.039
he ends U a fifty years low, and yet the Japanese market is
680
00:51:19.119 --> 00:51:21.639
at an all time high. Well, it just got to it. It
681
00:51:21.760 --> 00:51:23.280
just got to an all time high
after twenty two years. Yeah, that's
682
00:51:23.280 --> 00:51:27.400
what I'm saying. So why would
this be the environment where we go to
683
00:51:27.480 --> 00:51:30.400
an all time high inflation? They
finally have inflation in that country for the
684
00:51:30.440 --> 00:51:34.119
first time in twenty five years.
Speaking of all time high, how about
685
00:51:34.159 --> 00:51:37.280
gold? Gold is just on fire. I've heard some I've read so many
686
00:51:37.400 --> 00:51:43.280
articles about how ridiculous it is,
and it keeps going. Well golden bitcoin
687
00:51:43.320 --> 00:51:45.400
are you know, both kind of
trend in the same way right now?
688
00:51:45.599 --> 00:51:49.800
We calls that tell you. It
tells you people are afraid of what's going
689
00:51:49.880 --> 00:51:52.719
on in the world. I suppose
of inflation spos. Yeah, the afraid
690
00:51:52.719 --> 00:51:57.119
of inflation, the fraid of wars, the afraid of debt, the afraid
691
00:51:57.159 --> 00:51:59.639
of all the stuff. Well,
we know the gold is a horrible inflation
692
00:51:59.840 --> 00:52:02.400
edge. The more to Dean's point, where are another safe out? Money
693
00:52:02.440 --> 00:52:06.559
market funds. They're at all time
highs too. So if you're scared of
694
00:52:06.599 --> 00:52:08.079
something where you're gonna put money,
money market fund right, because you get
695
00:52:08.119 --> 00:52:12.800
good interests but you don't have to
worry about fluctuations. So it does seem
696
00:52:12.880 --> 00:52:15.960
like a lot of people are seeking
safety. But then you still have this
697
00:52:15.159 --> 00:52:19.440
market. You've been talking people fill
on bitcoin, almost like you've got a
698
00:52:19.800 --> 00:52:24.119
rearview mirror for it. I mean, now the bitcoin falls technical is better
699
00:52:24.159 --> 00:52:28.639
than any other financial You called it
when it hit the high, you said
700
00:52:28.639 --> 00:52:30.360
it's going to back off, back
off about fifteen percent, and last week
701
00:52:30.400 --> 00:52:34.280
you said, now it's probably down
as much as going to go this time
702
00:52:34.639 --> 00:52:37.519
up eleven percent this week. Good
call, Thank you. Now what's going
703
00:52:37.599 --> 00:52:42.800
to happen next week? The pressure
is on? And you hit three out
704
00:52:42.840 --> 00:52:45.760
of three. With how it's trending, it should hit a new all time
705
00:52:45.800 --> 00:52:49.400
I again, Yeah, seventy four
or something. What was it high?
706
00:52:49.599 --> 00:52:52.199
What was seventy three? Eight?
Something like that? And where did it
707
00:52:52.239 --> 00:52:55.039
close Thursday? I think like seventy
one? Okay, close to it?
708
00:52:55.280 --> 00:53:01.199
Okay. The gold was up sixty
bucks to twenty, Oil up a dollar
709
00:53:01.320 --> 00:53:05.639
forty hit a five month high.
Oil did. Yeah. You're hearing a
710
00:53:05.679 --> 00:53:09.559
lot about the gold irays. I
heard again. Now they're coming out because
711
00:53:09.679 --> 00:53:14.519
golds in all time highs and they're
saying it's a safeguard against the volatility in
712
00:53:14.559 --> 00:53:16.480
the markets. But it's not necessarily
true, because gold can just drop twenty
713
00:53:16.519 --> 00:53:19.880
percent. Oh, gold can be
as volatile as anything. But the thought
714
00:53:20.000 --> 00:53:22.719
is that it's a hedge and it's
all this and it's safer and it's less
715
00:53:22.800 --> 00:53:24.679
volatile, but not necessarily like you
can put it in right now at all
716
00:53:24.679 --> 00:53:29.559
time highs. You can move your
entire ira into a gold diray and that
717
00:53:29.639 --> 00:53:31.480
can drop twenty percent in a week. Who knows what gold does. So
718
00:53:31.559 --> 00:53:36.519
it's just something to keep in mind
that these commercials are selling you safeguard,
719
00:53:36.559 --> 00:53:39.440
but it's not necessarily a safeguard.
It's not like an annuity where your money's
720
00:53:39.920 --> 00:53:45.000
capped or there's a base in that
sense of safe. Yeah, it's not
721
00:53:45.039 --> 00:53:46.760
a contract, it's not. It's
a golden as I'm trying to sell you.
722
00:53:47.960 --> 00:53:52.480
Canopy Growth had a crazy week in
five days of trading, was up
723
00:53:52.559 --> 00:53:55.079
eighty two percent. Isn't that something? Now, let's go one year performance.
724
00:53:55.119 --> 00:54:00.199
It's still down fifty four percent.
But the reason I'm bringing it up
725
00:54:00.480 --> 00:54:05.039
is one Constellation Brands owns a lot
of Canopy Growth. They bought it at
726
00:54:05.119 --> 00:54:07.519
thirty three dollars a share before the
stock split, which is like now three
727
00:54:07.639 --> 00:54:10.440
hundred and thirty dollars if you looked
at the current price, So they have
728
00:54:10.519 --> 00:54:14.559
a long way to go before they
get back to their cost basis. But
729
00:54:15.280 --> 00:54:17.519
as you see canopy growth, if
it continues to grow higher, you should
730
00:54:17.519 --> 00:54:21.960
see Constellation kind of benefiting from that
on the back end, because that was
731
00:54:22.000 --> 00:54:24.039
probably the worst investment any corporation's had
in a very long time. Yeah,
732
00:54:24.039 --> 00:54:27.960
I don't think there's enough of it
to make a difference to Constellation because it
733
00:54:28.039 --> 00:54:31.119
didn't make a difference as it was
Plummetinge. Well, it did to the
734
00:54:31.159 --> 00:54:37.599
point where they are reporting non CGC
gap earnings and they reported finances without their
735
00:54:37.679 --> 00:54:40.719
canopy growth involved in it because the
candopy growth was skewing it so much and
736
00:54:40.800 --> 00:54:45.320
cancelation brands were seeing new all time
ice. Well that's my point. Now
737
00:54:45.360 --> 00:54:47.800
it's coming back, No, I
understand. But yeah, but I'm saying
738
00:54:47.880 --> 00:54:52.679
canopy growth is not a significant part
of what they have in the world.
739
00:54:52.800 --> 00:54:55.239
No, But if it continues to
get back to what it was when they
740
00:54:55.360 --> 00:55:00.840
made the purchase the acquisition in twenty
I think it was twenty one, it
741
00:55:01.000 --> 00:55:04.639
was a big part. It was
at least at like a three percent position.
742
00:55:04.760 --> 00:55:07.039
So now it's not insignificant. But
if it comes back, is what
743
00:55:07.119 --> 00:55:09.679
I'm saying. You said, the
stock went up how much it was up.
744
00:55:10.079 --> 00:55:13.760
Well, in five days it was
up eighty two percent. That's it
745
00:55:13.960 --> 00:55:15.800
because I remember it being about three
and a half dollars and finished a week
746
00:55:15.800 --> 00:55:19.719
at nine. Well, it did
come back down to eight sixties, So
747
00:55:19.800 --> 00:55:22.400
I mean, okay, all right, so yeah, it's crazy. Yeah,
748
00:55:22.840 --> 00:55:27.920
but Germany legalized weed, so's yeah, that's shut it off. That's
749
00:55:27.960 --> 00:55:32.800
what ignited the fire was Germany legalizing
marijuana but not legalizing decriminalizing. Yeah,
750
00:55:32.880 --> 00:55:37.800
partially, kind of a difference is
for sure. But the biggest one that's
751
00:55:37.840 --> 00:55:42.519
coming up is the DA is getting
so much pressure from everyone to change the
752
00:55:42.559 --> 00:55:45.960
scheduling of marijuana from Schedule one to
Schedule three. And once they do that,
753
00:55:46.400 --> 00:55:52.239
all these corporations can start writing off
business expenses and all cannabis corporations will
754
00:55:52.320 --> 00:55:54.840
increase in value at that point.
So would that impact Canadian stocks though?
755
00:55:55.480 --> 00:56:00.400
That's my you know, you know, just the Germany news had no impact
756
00:56:00.480 --> 00:56:04.599
on the US companies at all.
Yeah, But isn't gap gap no matter?
757
00:56:05.840 --> 00:56:09.679
Oh I've wondered about that if if
But so you're saying that general not
758
00:56:09.719 --> 00:56:13.519
gonna we know, it's not going
to be legalized in the United States because
759
00:56:13.519 --> 00:56:17.320
there's too much push back in Congress. But you're saying that the DEA may
760
00:56:17.400 --> 00:56:22.519
be able to decriminalize deschedule it.
No, it's you just schedule it from
761
00:56:22.840 --> 00:56:25.360
one to three to one. Because
for example, right now, this is
762
00:56:25.400 --> 00:56:30.519
the funniest thing. Guess what fetanol
is on the schedule lists of drugs two?
763
00:56:30.000 --> 00:56:36.400
Yeah, cannabis is scheduled one,
so canabis is three? Right?
764
00:56:36.559 --> 00:56:39.400
No, it's one right now.
It's the federal government believes cannabis is more
765
00:56:39.480 --> 00:56:45.440
dangerous to the population than vent,
which is insane. So it's just absolutely
766
00:56:45.440 --> 00:56:52.119
insane. Wow, it's crazy crazy. We had a little weakness in the
767
00:56:52.199 --> 00:56:57.960
chip stocks early in the week,
you know, both on Monday, China
768
00:56:58.079 --> 00:57:01.840
said that the government could no longer
buy computers, and I had either Intel
769
00:57:02.000 --> 00:57:07.159
or a m D chips, and
both the Intel and AMD went down,
770
00:57:07.840 --> 00:57:12.000
but they came back and was a
week higher. Intel popped high. I'm
771
00:57:12.119 --> 00:57:14.679
like, okay, this made me
scratch my head a little bit. We
772
00:57:14.760 --> 00:57:16.239
have a little chip war going on
here, huh and not. But here
773
00:57:16.400 --> 00:57:20.400
you're telling you when Intel is going
to be over the next year or so,
774
00:57:20.719 --> 00:57:23.079
is going to take off at sometime
you like better Intel IBM because both
775
00:57:23.119 --> 00:57:28.760
of these companies don't, and then
I like moving some money from the video
776
00:57:28.880 --> 00:57:32.400
into a m D. Yeah,
since IBM's more thought of its value because
777
00:57:32.440 --> 00:57:36.599
of their dividend, Intel doesn't have
such a high dividend, so it's a
778
00:57:36.599 --> 00:57:39.960
little different allocation. You know how. A big bid this week was a
779
00:57:40.360 --> 00:57:45.280
sd otter, Yes, seeming to
finally kind of bounce back from its lull
780
00:57:45.360 --> 00:57:47.039
its had for a while. And
then you know why. They they've been
781
00:57:47.159 --> 00:57:51.480
big in China and they finally said, you know what, heck with it
782
00:57:51.800 --> 00:57:54.159
and they brought everything back here and
they're selling it a discount of TJX.
783
00:57:54.440 --> 00:57:59.199
Nice to get rid of their excess
inventory. But also heard they're creating this
784
00:57:59.280 --> 00:58:02.159
partnership with Prime Stores yep, so
that's a huge deal as well. So
785
00:58:02.239 --> 00:58:06.679
there's a lot of potential profit that
they can The stock was up six percent
786
00:58:06.719 --> 00:58:12.760
on Friday. Thursday, Apple Home
Depot just acquired SRS Distributions for eighteen billion
787
00:58:12.760 --> 00:58:15.920
dollars. It's one of their largest
acquisitions. They did that last Thursday.
788
00:58:15.519 --> 00:58:19.679
SRS they're trying to get into more
of the professional landscape. Just they have
789
00:58:20.159 --> 00:58:23.760
SRS supplies professionals in the landscaping,
pool and roofing businesses. They have eleven
790
00:58:23.760 --> 00:58:29.119
thousand employers, big company, the
four thousand fleet truck delivery system. So
791
00:58:29.559 --> 00:58:31.440
home Depot's trying to get more into
that rather than fifty to fifty is what
792
00:58:31.559 --> 00:58:36.079
it currently is from just do it
yourself people to professionals coming in. So
793
00:58:36.119 --> 00:58:39.079
they're trying to get more into the
professional side and long term sales growths.
794
00:58:39.159 --> 00:58:45.159
Do yourself people are struggling with inflation. That's a but here's the most interesting
795
00:58:45.239 --> 00:58:51.719
part about that story is the SRS
is owned by Leonard Green and Partners,
796
00:58:51.960 --> 00:58:55.320
which is a hedge fund out of
la They sold it to home Depot for
797
00:58:55.400 --> 00:59:01.920
eighteen billion dollars. Right, they
bought it in twenty eighteen for three point
798
00:59:02.000 --> 00:59:07.360
five Well, Berkshire partner nice trade
as well. Was Berkshire part of that
799
00:59:07.400 --> 00:59:10.800
initial let character. Now Berkshire actually
was in before. Oh okay they got
800
00:59:10.880 --> 00:59:15.000
in twenty thirteen. Oh wow,
three made out pretty well. Three point
801
00:59:15.039 --> 00:59:17.159
five billion to eighteen billion and what
five years? That's pretty good trade,
802
00:59:19.159 --> 00:59:22.719
I say, so wow, fifty
percalizer. Yeah, we're going back to
803
00:59:22.760 --> 00:59:24.239
that. I mean, do yourself
people are probably just waiting, Like in
804
00:59:24.320 --> 00:59:28.639
twenty twenty, they had no traveling
plans so they just use that money to
805
00:59:28.719 --> 00:59:30.079
buy stuff at home. Deepo.
And that's why Low's and Home Depot did
806
00:59:30.159 --> 00:59:34.280
so well. But now with all
the inflation, they're just I will hold
807
00:59:34.360 --> 00:59:37.639
off on doing this project. It's
not a necessity to do this project at
808
00:59:37.639 --> 00:59:40.159
home. Will wait see the prices
come down. That's part of the hurt.
809
00:59:40.800 --> 00:59:44.719
Dad's dean, you said, d
Apple struggling, And of course we
810
00:59:44.880 --> 00:59:51.719
learned this week that iPhone sales in
China down thirty three percent year over year
811
00:59:52.559 --> 00:59:58.119
and down fifty six percent since January. Yet the DOJ is still suon Apple,
812
00:59:58.159 --> 01:00:00.880
saying they got a monopoly on phones. Yeah, that's a that's just
813
01:00:01.480 --> 01:00:07.480
that's amazing. Yeah, but anything
associated with China is struggling, whether whether
814
01:00:07.519 --> 01:00:13.320
it be Starbox or Win Resort or
Apple or has been doing the best probably
815
01:00:13.719 --> 01:00:15.920
in the last few Yeah, probably
holding up as well as anybody Macaw.
816
01:00:16.119 --> 01:00:20.840
You know, the big involvement in
Macau with the gambling and all. You
817
01:00:20.920 --> 01:00:24.159
know, maybe that's why another company
that bounced back heavy this week was a
818
01:00:24.320 --> 01:00:28.440
first Solar. A lot of the
solar companies had a great week. That
819
01:00:28.559 --> 01:00:30.880
was agree Yeah, that was a
great call by you guys. It doesn't
820
01:00:30.880 --> 01:00:32.920
make a lot of sense this week
instrates didn't move at all. No,
821
01:00:34.719 --> 01:00:38.159
they responded to something, and there
was the whole industry. Solar industry responded
822
01:00:38.199 --> 01:00:42.039
for on something. I couldn't really
find what it was, but because all
823
01:00:42.039 --> 01:00:45.119
I saw on solar at all this
week was that China has like a surplus
824
01:00:45.159 --> 01:00:47.480
of panels, like thirty three percent
surplus and solar panels right now. But
825
01:00:47.519 --> 01:00:51.920
they're saying that could pose an issue
for the US. So that's bad news,
826
01:00:51.960 --> 01:00:53.719
the best the only news I saw
solar yet, First Solar one up
827
01:00:53.719 --> 01:00:58.719
ten percent on Wednesday. The First
Solar is up about fifteen percent in the
828
01:00:58.800 --> 01:01:00.599
last thirty days, right yeah,
yeah, I mean it's a we know
829
01:01:00.719 --> 01:01:06.920
that the solar stocks, particularly First
Solar god is a play on interest rates,
830
01:01:07.039 --> 01:01:08.440
right yeah. And it's played that
way for sure, and that was
831
01:01:08.480 --> 01:01:12.360
our thought behind the Yeah, it
was a great, great call, especially
832
01:01:12.400 --> 01:01:15.199
with the thought that interest rates are
peaking. You think when it wants to
833
01:01:15.239 --> 01:01:20.320
start lower and people look okay,
and that's another kind of play on interest
834
01:01:20.400 --> 01:01:22.719
rates. And I've kind of struggled
with this. I haven't started a positioning
835
01:01:23.000 --> 01:01:28.760
as the US home construction etf ITB
is the one I've been looking at and
836
01:01:29.440 --> 01:01:32.840
with new home builders with lower rates
that would in theory, would lead to
837
01:01:32.920 --> 01:01:36.719
more sales for them too, because
you you're still not going to have the
838
01:01:36.800 --> 01:01:38.920
inventory problem. If rates go down
one percent, people are still going to
839
01:01:38.960 --> 01:01:42.639
cover that three or four percent,
right right, I mean how much They're
840
01:01:42.639 --> 01:01:45.159
not going to get that much valuation
off a one percent drop, Whereas it
841
01:01:45.239 --> 01:01:47.880
helps the new home builders a lot
even if they get a one percent drop.
842
01:01:49.159 --> 01:01:53.199
Especially what I'm hearing with my you
know that with new home buyers it's
843
01:01:53.199 --> 01:01:57.559
a it's a huge discount, so
yeah, and you're following it. B,
844
01:01:57.719 --> 01:02:00.679
which it's more concentrated in actual builders
like a Horror and POLTI group they
845
01:02:00.760 --> 01:02:06.199
have higher holding percentage in there.
And then there's also XHB which some of
846
01:02:06.239 --> 01:02:12.360
our clients we've bought into, which
is more evenly distributed between the home builders
847
01:02:12.480 --> 01:02:15.320
and say like Williams No my home
depot and the stuff that goes into the
848
01:02:15.400 --> 01:02:19.960
house as well as the actual builders. So there's two different ways to play
849
01:02:19.960 --> 01:02:22.480
it. I think ITV has been
doing a little better lately because of the
850
01:02:22.559 --> 01:02:24.360
home runers. I mean over the
last year. This is the problem with
851
01:02:24.400 --> 01:02:29.639
the play right over the last year, the ITB is up seventy XHB is
852
01:02:29.719 --> 01:02:32.519
up I think around sixty percent.
Yeah, so you're you're buying it at
853
01:02:32.599 --> 01:02:37.400
really high levels. But from an
idea of interest rates coming down, it
854
01:02:37.519 --> 01:02:39.920
does seem like the trend will continue. That's what's gostopim me though, is
855
01:02:40.519 --> 01:02:44.440
it's hard to buy something at what
could be appeal. In the last couple
856
01:02:44.480 --> 01:02:49.599
of months alone, they're up about
twenty percent too. It's been hard.
857
01:02:49.639 --> 01:02:52.119
It's like you gotta be careful with
it. If you want to go look
858
01:02:52.159 --> 01:02:53.960
into that position, maybe start with
a one percent position something like that,
859
01:02:54.519 --> 01:02:58.199
and then just get your feet wet, not put everything all at once.
860
01:02:58.400 --> 01:03:01.559
We had Dave Hann on the show
as we're talking about home industry. It's
861
01:03:02.840 --> 01:03:07.440
everything's smooth sailing. I mean,
there's not huge numbers going on, but
862
01:03:07.519 --> 01:03:12.480
there's no bad numbers coming out either
in economic reports. So it really is
863
01:03:12.519 --> 01:03:15.920
almost like the market where we have
a goldielock scenario. You know, interest
864
01:03:15.000 --> 01:03:21.440
rates are probably done going up right, Corporate earnings are accelerating, the AI
865
01:03:21.880 --> 01:03:25.800
is really exciting of what kind of
future profits that's going to bring. It
866
01:03:27.000 --> 01:03:30.360
just seems like we're kind of in
a goldilock scenario. Right. I had
867
01:03:30.400 --> 01:03:34.920
to call last last week. They
said, you know, not everyone that
868
01:03:35.039 --> 01:03:37.719
listens to the show has a big
stock portfolio. So I started trying to
869
01:03:37.840 --> 01:03:43.360
learn. So if you'll bear with
me for two or three minutes, I'm
870
01:03:43.400 --> 01:03:46.440
going to give a little one to
one basics of investing. So if you're
871
01:03:46.519 --> 01:03:49.960
a big investor out there, you
can turn this, turn this off for
872
01:03:50.000 --> 01:03:52.320
a minute. But investing is now. This is to the to the new
873
01:03:52.360 --> 01:03:57.079
people. How much money do you
need to start investing? And the answer
874
01:03:57.239 --> 01:04:00.840
is not a lot. In fact, mathematically proven that it's better to start
875
01:04:00.920 --> 01:04:03.840
small than to wait until you have
more to deploy. Dollar cost averaging is
876
01:04:03.840 --> 01:04:09.280
important. So whatever amount, the
important part is to get started, what
877
01:04:09.440 --> 01:04:12.039
to invest in? Wait? What
you just said a word that most people
878
01:04:12.079 --> 01:04:15.679
don't know what it is? Dollar
cost averaging. Yeah, put thank you
879
01:04:15.800 --> 01:04:16.960
toad, go ahead, you want
to describe it? Sure? So,
880
01:04:17.079 --> 01:04:21.320
dollar cost averaging is a fixed dollar
amount that you decide that you can put
881
01:04:21.360 --> 01:04:26.159
away, let's say for each week, and you have it systematically taken out
882
01:04:26.199 --> 01:04:30.119
each Monday, and say it's fifty
dollars, and no matter what you're buying,
883
01:04:30.280 --> 01:04:32.400
you're taking that fifty dollars and buying
the same say S and P five
884
01:04:32.480 --> 01:04:35.679
hundred at that same point every week. So it's not that you're timing anything.
885
01:04:35.760 --> 01:04:40.000
It's just that you picked a day
and you're systematically doing it over a
886
01:04:40.039 --> 01:04:42.719
period of time. Yep, exactly, thank you, Thank you. What
887
01:04:42.840 --> 01:04:46.199
to invest in the stocks are one
option. You can also consider investment vehicles
888
01:04:46.239 --> 01:04:51.239
that provide exposure to the stock market. Mutual funds ETFs. Those are more
889
01:04:51.280 --> 01:04:55.880
typical for someone new, and you
don't have to be a rocket science.
890
01:04:56.000 --> 01:04:58.760
Just pick the S and P five
hundred. Mutual funds. You can go
891
01:04:58.840 --> 01:05:01.880
to Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab.
They'll do it for free, yeah cost.
892
01:05:02.000 --> 01:05:06.000
The most common one that I think
is spy spy that's an ETF.
893
01:05:06.239 --> 01:05:10.719
Probably better off with the mutual fund
if you're new, because spies like five
894
01:05:10.800 --> 01:05:14.000
hundred bucks a share and you might
not be able to buy one share very
895
01:05:14.039 --> 01:05:15.880
sure each week, so you know
you want to stick with the mutual funds.
896
01:05:15.920 --> 01:05:19.960
I mean, that's the difference between
mutual funds and ETFs is mutual funds,
897
01:05:20.440 --> 01:05:24.719
it's a it's per dollar that you're
buying, and with per share with
898
01:05:24.840 --> 01:05:30.440
an ETF, I think you're maybe
more tempted to sell with a mutual fund.
899
01:05:30.480 --> 01:05:31.440
You don't pay attention to it.
It is what it is. But
900
01:05:31.800 --> 01:05:35.519
you did dollar cost averaging. Stock
market's been the place that's delivered the best
901
01:05:35.599 --> 01:05:41.039
long term return on your money ten
percent annually versus real estate, which is
902
01:05:41.039 --> 01:05:44.960
around five percent. And stock is
more liquid. Stock's a good place to
903
01:05:45.039 --> 01:05:47.599
start. How to buy stocks?
We probably we just talked about it accidentally.
904
01:05:47.639 --> 01:05:51.400
The ETFs, mutual funds. Mutual
funds are a good way to go.
905
01:05:53.960 --> 01:05:58.000
Pick a diversified mutual fund, Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab. Just get
906
01:05:58.039 --> 01:06:00.760
an S and P five hundred mutual
fund and do your dollar cost averaging.
907
01:06:01.079 --> 01:06:05.480
Was fifty bucks every Monday into that
mutual fund. And because it is not
908
01:06:06.840 --> 01:06:10.440
an ETF, you can put the
fifty bucks to work. You don't have
909
01:06:10.480 --> 01:06:15.800
to worry about having enough to buy
one share. Lastly, lastly, you've
910
01:06:15.440 --> 01:06:18.599
started with You've got your dollar cost
averaging going. You're going into the S
911
01:06:18.639 --> 01:06:23.760
and P five hundred mutual fund.
The last thing. The secret to making
912
01:06:23.840 --> 01:06:28.239
money big secret, not so much
anymore. Stay invested. You've got to
913
01:06:28.320 --> 01:06:32.480
stay invested time, let your investments
ride through the market's inevitables, short term
914
01:06:32.559 --> 01:06:38.599
rough patches and temperament, the ability
to keep cool while everybody else is freaking
915
01:06:38.679 --> 01:06:44.079
out are the keys to investment success. The Dow is approaching forty thousand.
916
01:06:45.119 --> 01:06:47.920
I was there when it would hit
one thousand. Okay, so over time
917
01:06:48.320 --> 01:06:51.880
is always going to go higher.
The market always goes higher over time.
918
01:06:53.159 --> 01:06:56.239
And if you're doing your fifty dollars
a week or fifty dollars a month,
919
01:06:56.320 --> 01:06:59.960
whatever you can afford, what you
would like to see happen is the market
920
01:07:00.079 --> 01:07:03.920
good crash and you buy a whole
bunch at low prices and then when you
921
01:07:03.960 --> 01:07:08.719
get ready to retire, twenty thirty
forty fifty years from now, back to
922
01:07:08.840 --> 01:07:12.119
new highs. Right, that's ideal
when you're four oh one k. Don't
923
01:07:12.119 --> 01:07:14.760
we screw around with your four to
one k s and P five hundred five
924
01:07:14.760 --> 01:07:17.199
to leave alone. There was actually
a very interesting article, and I'm not
925
01:07:17.239 --> 01:07:21.159
going to bring out numbers because I
don't know the exact numbers, but Vanguard
926
01:07:21.400 --> 01:07:26.280
kind of did analysis of someone doing
what you just said by themselves and then
927
01:07:26.559 --> 01:07:30.599
doing exactly that, but having an
advisor managed the account. And usually the
928
01:07:30.719 --> 01:07:35.719
advisor can do better because they're helping
the investor control their emotions and That's why
929
01:07:35.760 --> 01:07:38.840
we always say here, if you
can cut your own hair, you don't
930
01:07:38.840 --> 01:07:41.760
need a barber. But most people
can't control their emotions, and so they
931
01:07:41.840 --> 01:07:45.360
need someone to help them through,
and you know, talk to them and
932
01:07:45.519 --> 01:07:47.639
show them the history, show them
why they're doing it, and go back
933
01:07:47.679 --> 01:07:51.639
to the plan, and make sure
that they're sticking with their original you know,
934
01:07:51.760 --> 01:07:56.280
risk tolerance and why they chose that. And those are conversations that you
935
01:07:56.360 --> 01:07:59.000
will not have if you do it
by yourself. So if you do it
936
01:07:59.039 --> 01:08:01.519
by yourself, what Dave just said, those keys to success, you have
937
01:08:01.719 --> 01:08:05.559
to follow it otherwise you're potentially doing
yourself. It is certain, and you're
938
01:08:05.559 --> 01:08:09.960
gonna want to get set up with
what they call AH it's automatic clearing house
939
01:08:10.039 --> 01:08:14.800
and that so x amount of dollars
goes from your checking account into Vanguard,
940
01:08:14.880 --> 01:08:17.960
Fidelity, Schwab whatever, whenever you
schedule it. But it goes in there
941
01:08:18.000 --> 01:08:23.560
every single month and buys those shares
and it's out of your hands. You
942
01:08:23.680 --> 01:08:25.439
don't want to look at it,
you don't want to mess with it.
943
01:08:25.840 --> 01:08:30.000
Just make sure there's money in there
to go. And someone I read an
944
01:08:30.079 --> 01:08:36.039
article this is many many years ago, says the best the biggest value that
945
01:08:36.199 --> 01:08:44.439
a money manager brings to the table
is eliminating emotion. And it is because,
946
01:08:44.479 --> 01:08:47.000
I mean, the emotion's huge with
money, and especially if you're doing
947
01:08:47.000 --> 01:08:50.119
it on your own and like you
don't have much knowledge on it. We've
948
01:08:50.119 --> 01:08:53.439
talked to a lot about people that
said, but they know some stuff and
949
01:08:53.479 --> 01:08:56.199
not a lot, and they just
go by their emotion. They're selling it
950
01:08:56.319 --> 01:08:59.119
the lows and they're buying at the
highs because that's when they start feeling good
951
01:08:59.159 --> 01:09:01.439
and they start feeling bad. And
that's just the complete opposite. And it's
952
01:09:01.479 --> 01:09:05.520
always an emotion. The emotions are
opposite in this business. It's a crazy
953
01:09:05.560 --> 01:09:09.319
business. We have a big sale, nobody comes in. We put things
954
01:09:09.359 --> 01:09:11.680
at all time high prices, and
when the phones are bringing off the hook.
955
01:09:12.000 --> 01:09:13.760
Well, it's what we always use
a example of, like I say,
956
01:09:13.760 --> 01:09:15.680
an iPhone. You got an iPhone, it's fifty percent off. What
957
01:09:15.760 --> 01:09:17.640
are you gonna do? You're gonna
go buy it that day? Right?
958
01:09:18.039 --> 01:09:21.680
If Apple stock is down fifty percent, you're not gonna buy it because you
959
01:09:21.720 --> 01:09:25.159
think it's going to zero. Right. There's a lot of people's stop process
960
01:09:25.399 --> 01:09:28.199
when in reality, you buy it
that day, right, And the dollar
961
01:09:28.279 --> 01:09:30.880
cost averaging in the s and P
five hundred. It does not matter.
962
01:09:31.399 --> 01:09:35.800
Eventually it will come back to a
new all time high. It always has,
963
01:09:36.439 --> 01:09:40.399
right, Tomash Right, it's really
hard to quantify that value that we
964
01:09:40.520 --> 01:09:43.039
bring in being able to take that
emotion out of the game for you.
965
01:09:43.279 --> 01:09:45.520
Yes, it is, but I
think when you're starting investing, you don't
966
01:09:45.560 --> 01:09:49.399
need us, you know, and
til you get to a level where you
967
01:09:49.479 --> 01:09:54.680
think others significant money here that I'm
a little concerned. It's automatic deposits and
968
01:09:54.800 --> 01:09:56.560
right, you know, Yeah,
it's also the idea that like they just
969
01:09:56.560 --> 01:09:59.239
don't want to deal with it anymore
and look at it every day, or
970
01:09:59.279 --> 01:10:00.720
they don't want to look at every
day because it makes their emotions go crazy.
971
01:10:01.000 --> 01:10:04.199
We have a lot, we have
that a lot where people have managed
972
01:10:04.239 --> 01:10:06.520
your own money over the years and
they're just tired of it. Yeah,
973
01:10:06.600 --> 01:10:11.000
and then they want somebody who it's
start for a living. Yeah, and
974
01:10:11.000 --> 01:10:13.239
it's time consuming. We're retired,
you want to do other things? Oh,
975
01:10:13.319 --> 01:10:15.000
we tell we do every day.
You know. When people are working,
976
01:10:15.439 --> 01:10:18.760
it's a lot easier not to use
an advisor. But when you get
977
01:10:18.840 --> 01:10:23.239
to the point where you're no longer
having a check and now you are dependent
978
01:10:23.319 --> 01:10:28.600
on yourself managing your money efficiently so
it can last, say twenty twenty five,
979
01:10:28.720 --> 01:10:30.640
thirty years, who knows how long. With medical advancements, you have
980
01:10:30.760 --> 01:10:34.199
to be really good at something called
sequence of returns because you might put in
981
01:10:34.279 --> 01:10:38.039
your excel doc that if I get
a six percent average return, I can
982
01:10:38.119 --> 01:10:41.239
make this last for thirty years.
But that's not a realistic market. It's
983
01:10:41.279 --> 01:10:43.399
going to be up twelve, it's
going to be down six, it's going
984
01:10:43.439 --> 01:10:45.199
to be down ten, it's going
to be up seven. That average urn
985
01:10:45.359 --> 01:10:48.920
might be six, but the sequence
of return matter because if you start retiringent
986
01:10:48.920 --> 01:10:53.000
with three straight years of negatives and
you didn't put money away that you needed,
987
01:10:53.199 --> 01:10:55.600
then you're selling at bottoms. You're
never going to come back up when
988
01:10:55.680 --> 01:11:00.479
markets come back. And so we
have strategies, we have way to help
989
01:11:00.520 --> 01:11:03.640
people. And also it's beneficial to
these people because then they can enjoy their
990
01:11:03.720 --> 01:11:06.359
retirement everything that they work for.
They don't have to worry about the money
991
01:11:06.359 --> 01:11:10.359
in the back end because they know
someone's taking care of it. And that's
992
01:11:10.520 --> 01:11:14.359
really the goal that we try to
strive for. We want you to every
993
01:11:14.560 --> 01:11:17.039
goal that you set out for in
your working life. We want you to
994
01:11:17.119 --> 01:11:21.640
accomplish in retirement not having to worry
about the stresses of money. That's our
995
01:11:21.760 --> 01:11:25.760
job. There's so much noise in
retirement too, whether it be long term
996
01:11:25.880 --> 01:11:30.199
care or social security disability, just
so many different moving parts. And you
997
01:11:30.319 --> 01:11:33.359
want to do you want to do
it right, and you're not even We
998
01:11:33.560 --> 01:11:39.840
played that game every single day.
You play that game once in your life,
999
01:11:40.840 --> 01:11:45.239
so we know how it's played.
We know where the ball is hidden,
1000
01:11:45.359 --> 01:11:47.960
right, and it's the first time, your only time you're ever going
1001
01:11:48.039 --> 01:11:50.600
to deal with it for the rest
of your life. We appreciate your joining
1002
01:11:50.720 --> 01:11:55.880
us on this Easter Sunday. We're
recording this on Thursday, ahead of the
1003
01:11:56.359 --> 01:11:58.920
long three day weekend. I don't
want you to think a bunch of heathens
1004
01:11:59.000 --> 01:12:00.840
sitting out at the radio station.
You're on Easter your Sunday. Happy Easter,
1005
01:12:00.960 --> 01:12:04.560
everyone, Welcome back to the Money
Matter Show. My name is Todd
1006
01:12:04.600 --> 01:12:08.640
Glick. I'm here with Joel Johnson. I got our special John. I
1007
01:12:08.720 --> 01:12:11.760
can't just like go old. I
got our special guest, Joel Johnson.
1008
01:12:11.840 --> 01:12:15.359
My bet, so we got a
really fun event that we've talked about a
1009
01:12:15.479 --> 01:12:18.560
lot coming up. Because you're gonna
be there, and you're gonna be talking
1010
01:12:18.600 --> 01:12:23.319
about something everyone loves. Just kidding, now, they're gonna a really fun
1011
01:12:23.359 --> 01:12:27.119
event, because that's a lot of
pressure. I know it's he's talking about
1012
01:12:27.159 --> 01:12:29.359
taxes too, so I don't know
how fun he can make it. But
1013
01:12:29.680 --> 01:12:31.359
golden nugget right there. I mean, that's a draw. I think.
1014
01:12:31.479 --> 01:12:34.479
I think what everyone definitely wants to
hear is how can they be more tax
1015
01:12:34.520 --> 01:12:39.720
efficient? And obviously, with the
deadline coming up, most people probably have
1016
01:12:39.800 --> 01:12:44.119
gotten pretty close to getting their returns
already filed. But April fifteen brings a
1017
01:12:44.159 --> 01:12:45.680
lot of different things coming up.
So what are some of the things that
1018
01:12:45.680 --> 01:12:50.000
people should be looking out for?
Does thanks Dodd great to be here the
1019
01:12:50.760 --> 01:12:55.479
number of deadline things that come up
on April fifteenth, there's the opportunity to
1020
01:12:55.520 --> 01:12:59.520
hit the extension, and fundamentally there
simply just gives you a whole lot more
1021
01:12:59.560 --> 01:13:00.680
time. But there are a number
of things that you have to do by
1022
01:13:00.720 --> 01:13:05.439
April fifteenth to not be in an
adverse condition for the extension period and or
1023
01:13:05.960 --> 01:13:11.840
to optimize what you still can do
for the taxes for twenty twenty three.
1024
01:13:12.279 --> 01:13:15.960
So you have things like your Arizona
tax Credit donations. If you hit an
1025
01:13:15.000 --> 01:13:19.479
extension, you still need to execute
on the donations you would make by April
1026
01:13:19.520 --> 01:13:24.399
fifteenth, if you're contributing to your
IRA, things like that. So there
1027
01:13:24.439 --> 01:13:27.760
are some things that you would need
to accomplished by April fifteenth and be aware
1028
01:13:27.800 --> 01:13:31.119
of. And the other one,
notably is if you anticipate a balance due.
1029
01:13:32.079 --> 01:13:36.760
The government effectively treats any balance due
as a loan and they charge interest
1030
01:13:36.880 --> 01:13:40.800
and they call it interest and penalties
to make the interest rate higher than the
1031
01:13:40.880 --> 01:13:45.079
nominal allowable. But it's effectively a
loan treatment for balances more than a thousand
1032
01:13:45.119 --> 01:13:48.039
bucks. That makes sense. You
ask if you're filing for an extension.
1033
01:13:48.119 --> 01:13:51.359
In theory you wouldn't owe any money, and they don't care. Take as
1034
01:13:51.399 --> 01:13:55.359
long as you want, right to
tell us what we have to send back
1035
01:13:55.399 --> 01:13:58.399
to you, yeah, or never
file. There's no consequence effectively to not
1036
01:13:58.520 --> 01:14:02.840
file if AO you really yep.
So if if you don't have any additional
1037
01:14:03.000 --> 01:14:09.319
taxes, do and don't file your
return. So I'm being simple, and
1038
01:14:09.439 --> 01:14:12.760
you know there's always asks to everything
about it, and certainly not applicable to
1039
01:14:12.800 --> 01:14:15.000
business taxes or partnership returns for a
number of things, but on an individual
1040
01:14:15.079 --> 01:14:18.560
level, there are literally billions of
dollars. I don't think it gets to
1041
01:14:18.600 --> 01:14:21.520
the trillions yet, but there's a
whole bunch of money that goes unclaimed.
1042
01:14:21.920 --> 01:14:25.159
Every now and then I have someone
come in and you know, they talk
1043
01:14:25.159 --> 01:14:28.399
about their friend or whoever that hasn't
filed taxes for ten years, and my
1044
01:14:28.560 --> 01:14:31.640
response is that means IRS owes you
a whole bunch of money. Because if
1045
01:14:31.720 --> 01:14:34.159
they run the analysis in the background, they get all the W twos,
1046
01:14:34.159 --> 01:14:38.079
ten ninety nine's, all these things. Yeah, so they run it into
1047
01:14:38.119 --> 01:14:41.880
their system and say in the most
adverse condition for the taxpayer possible. Right,
1048
01:14:42.000 --> 01:14:44.399
so you sold a stock but you
had no cost basis if it's not
1049
01:14:44.479 --> 01:14:47.720
reported things like this, and if
they say that looks like you might owe
1050
01:14:47.800 --> 01:14:51.479
IRS money, you're going to get
a letter we haven't received your filing.
1051
01:14:53.560 --> 01:14:56.960
You what's a million dollars or you
know, whatever a balance to. However,
1052
01:14:57.159 --> 01:15:00.399
if that analysis says I owe you
a million dollars, they just sit
1053
01:15:00.399 --> 01:15:03.279
there nice and quiet and hold their
hands and wait for you to file because
1054
01:15:03.319 --> 01:15:08.039
the consequence of not filing you are
under an obligation to file. But the
1055
01:15:08.079 --> 01:15:12.640
consequence is all surrounding balances due.
If you don't have a balance due,
1056
01:15:12.760 --> 01:15:15.640
you don't have an obligation. There's
a taxpayer. I like that, right,
1057
01:15:16.199 --> 01:15:19.640
well, our government, you're forgetting
the money you're giving to the government
1058
01:15:20.119 --> 01:15:25.000
work us right as a taxpayer.
That that people who are do a refund,
1059
01:15:25.199 --> 01:15:29.479
they're now going to chase them.
Good right as a taxpayer, because
1060
01:15:29.520 --> 01:15:32.359
that means more money in the coffer. Yeah, okay, I see it
1061
01:15:32.479 --> 01:15:34.560
for the people who do do it. Yeah, I see what you're saying.
1062
01:15:34.600 --> 01:15:38.720
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm
pleased to and and somebody says,
1063
01:15:38.720 --> 01:15:42.560
well, you know, Irish is
really enforcing the tax boss good. Yeah,
1064
01:15:43.439 --> 01:15:45.159
well that taxpayer. I like that. That reminds me of like,
1065
01:15:45.319 --> 01:15:48.439
you know, spousal benefits are sold
security. If you if your wife didn't
1066
01:15:48.439 --> 01:15:51.000
take spousal benefits for soul security,
they're not going to call you up and
1067
01:15:51.159 --> 01:15:55.439
let you know that you're missing out
of money the government and they're not that
1068
01:15:55.640 --> 01:15:58.760
nice. Yeah, there's a whole
bunch of things. And that's one of
1069
01:15:58.800 --> 01:16:01.119
the dynamics of the tax. It's
written that there's all kinds of opportunities,
1070
01:16:01.840 --> 01:16:05.680
but you have to ask for them. You have to submit your return,
1071
01:16:05.760 --> 01:16:10.640
you have to make a filing to
capture those opportunities and those benefits. But
1072
01:16:10.680 --> 01:16:13.520
I think that's really important to what
you just said, is that if you're
1073
01:16:13.640 --> 01:16:17.039
wanting to make an IRA contribution or
a ROTH contribution, or take advantage of
1074
01:16:17.079 --> 01:16:21.640
the Arizona Tuition tax credit, you
have to do that by the fifteenth,
1075
01:16:23.119 --> 01:16:28.359
regardless of whether you get an extension
or not correct for its account for twenty
1076
01:16:28.399 --> 01:16:31.520
twenty three. Yeah right, yeah, whereas a Roth conversion has to be
1077
01:16:31.560 --> 01:16:35.159
done in the calendar year, you
can't do that now, right, And
1078
01:16:35.520 --> 01:16:39.159
this is where the rules seem like
they're changing day by day, not even
1079
01:16:39.239 --> 01:16:41.239
year by year anymore. So it
used to be you could do a Roth
1080
01:16:41.279 --> 01:16:44.640
conversion and then revert depending on the
circumstances. A few years back, and
1081
01:16:44.720 --> 01:16:46.760
they took that away and had be
done in the calendar year. Time one
1082
01:16:46.760 --> 01:16:49.720
more time. I didn't catch hop
one more time what you just said.
1083
01:16:49.840 --> 01:16:55.359
Yeah, you bet. So their
rules are under perpetual change, and not
1084
01:16:55.640 --> 01:16:59.960
long ago you could do a Roth
conversion and do these things after the calendar
1085
01:17:00.199 --> 01:17:04.239
year, and then steadily little pieces
change and move, so you can't unwind
1086
01:17:04.399 --> 01:17:09.199
a Wroth conversion after the calendar year
anymore. For example, like doing it
1087
01:17:09.279 --> 01:17:12.159
in February. It's saying it's for
twenty three. Yeah, and explain Roth
1088
01:17:12.239 --> 01:17:15.560
conversion. For Roth conversion, that
is right, is just say you have
1089
01:17:15.920 --> 01:17:18.359
one hundred thousand in IRA. You
want to move twenty thousand of it to
1090
01:17:18.560 --> 01:17:21.399
WROTH, because say you have rm
ds that you're gonna have to take out
1091
01:17:21.399 --> 01:17:26.359
anyways or whatever. Maybe you take
that twenty thousand. It gets automatically put
1092
01:17:26.399 --> 01:17:29.399
into a Roth IRA and you have
a choice. You can either have the
1093
01:17:29.520 --> 01:17:32.840
institution that's doing this conversion for you
withhold the taxes for you, or you
1094
01:17:32.920 --> 01:17:35.119
can pay the tax at the end. Because it's coming out of an IRA,
1095
01:17:35.279 --> 01:17:39.840
you still have to pay your pretext
liability. But once it's in the
1096
01:17:39.960 --> 01:17:44.319
rough, there's no contribution. There's
no limits for the Roth conversion, right,
1097
01:17:44.439 --> 01:17:46.239
So a contribution there is a limit, but for the conversion there's no
1098
01:17:46.359 --> 01:17:48.840
limits. So Theoreta you can put
the whole hundred thousand. You still have
1099
01:17:48.840 --> 01:17:51.920
to pay taxes one hundred thousand,
but once it's in the Wroth it will
1100
01:17:51.920 --> 01:17:59.880
grow tax free forever. And if
I'm correct, an RMD cannot be put
1101
01:18:00.039 --> 01:18:02.800
put in the Roth. R and
D cannot be satisfied as a rock conversion.
1102
01:18:03.680 --> 01:18:05.720
You could do a rock conversion in
the same year you have an R
1103
01:18:05.760 --> 01:18:09.159
and D, but you still have
to take the RM and D out to
1104
01:18:09.279 --> 01:18:12.880
satisfy Joe, do you have Do
you ever have people come to you,
1105
01:18:13.680 --> 01:18:16.600
because that's a big question. We
get asked, how much should I can
1106
01:18:16.880 --> 01:18:19.479
move into a roth? You know, does it make any sense to move
1107
01:18:19.520 --> 01:18:23.720
into roth? Because everybody's talking about
it, and they hear about it at
1108
01:18:23.720 --> 01:18:27.960
the pool or the pickle ball cord
or whatever. This is where the broader
1109
01:18:28.000 --> 01:18:31.000
conversation about having a financial plan really
comes into play. This is the dynamic
1110
01:18:31.079 --> 01:18:36.119
of having a team storyline because that
consideration depends on an individual circumstance. You
1111
01:18:36.159 --> 01:18:39.399
know, what is your marginal tax
bracket? Are you in a twelve percent
1112
01:18:39.479 --> 01:18:43.039
marginal tax bracket? Goodness, gracious, convert all day. As long as
1113
01:18:43.079 --> 01:18:45.000
you can under that twelve percent.
The probability you'll have a twelve percent tax
1114
01:18:45.039 --> 01:18:48.520
brack in the future, I'm gonna
give it incredibly low odds. So,
1115
01:18:48.840 --> 01:18:51.920
but if you're in a thirty seven
percent tax bracket, that conversion might take
1116
01:18:51.920 --> 01:18:57.760
a bigger hit than a future planning
consideration might suggest you should consider. So
1117
01:18:58.000 --> 01:19:00.079
it depends on the circumstance and how
young you are, right, because if
1118
01:19:00.079 --> 01:19:03.560
we're talking tax free growth over thirty
years compared to ten, it's a lot
1119
01:19:03.680 --> 01:19:08.439
different tax savings. Right. Allure
of the ROTH concept is centered around increasing
1120
01:19:08.520 --> 01:19:11.439
value, right, Yeah, And
I mean ROTH only works if you have
1121
01:19:11.680 --> 01:19:15.439
time. Correct, So if you're
eighty five, you're just doing it for
1122
01:19:15.520 --> 01:19:17.079
your errors. Really, you're just
doing it for your airs, and you're
1123
01:19:17.079 --> 01:19:20.560
assuming that your errors are going to
have a higher tax bracket than you,
1124
01:19:21.159 --> 01:19:26.000
and that's not always the case.
And we were talking earlier about some of
1125
01:19:26.039 --> 01:19:28.399
these stocks that did all kind of
crazy movements. You know, you put
1126
01:19:28.800 --> 01:19:30.319
a million dollars in there one day, and if it's worth a million one
1127
01:19:30.359 --> 01:19:32.960
the next day, one hundred grand, not tax. That's still substantial,
1128
01:19:33.239 --> 01:19:36.640
no question, no question. But
you do need time, and the market
1129
01:19:36.720 --> 01:19:44.720
doesn't generally move like this, and
stocks don't generally move like Nvidia. There
1130
01:19:44.800 --> 01:19:46.840
have been some opportunities over the past
six months. I mean, the ultimate
1131
01:19:46.960 --> 01:19:50.760
idea to rock version is when it's
at the bottom. Right back in October
1132
01:19:50.880 --> 01:19:54.640
was when you should have done a
rock version, and now it's grown thirty
1133
01:19:54.680 --> 01:19:58.880
percent tax free. That's you know, hindsight being twenty twenty. That's what
1134
01:19:58.920 --> 01:20:03.159
you would have done when the market
crashes and the Roth conversion is a is
1135
01:20:03.199 --> 01:20:05.680
a Like I said, it's a
topic that comes up an awful lot,
1136
01:20:05.760 --> 01:20:11.399
and there isn't one size fits all
it really, like Joel said, it's
1137
01:20:11.560 --> 01:20:15.760
very customized, and not only can
he assist you with that, but we
1138
01:20:15.840 --> 01:20:19.800
can as well through the financial plan. Yeah, that that is one of
1139
01:20:19.880 --> 01:20:23.640
the components of the financial plan,
right, toun. Yeah, I'll have
1140
01:20:23.800 --> 01:20:26.520
clients that have R and DS and
Social Security and I just can't see how
1141
01:20:26.560 --> 01:20:29.279
it would work for them. And
I have other clients who haven't started any
1142
01:20:29.359 --> 01:20:31.039
one of those, and you can
see a lot of potential benefits. So
1143
01:20:31.439 --> 01:20:33.800
you know, those are just two
examples and variables that we look at,
1144
01:20:33.840 --> 01:20:36.439
but there's a whole bunch of them
that we have to go through to really
1145
01:20:36.520 --> 01:20:40.159
determine if it would even make sense
in the first place. And like you
1146
01:20:40.199 --> 01:20:43.600
said earlier, it's usually the younger
people getting ready to retire it makes more
1147
01:20:43.640 --> 01:20:45.239
sense to do than the people that
are already retire that we're talking to.
1148
01:20:45.439 --> 01:20:49.439
Give me an example of a younger
person doing fifty five plus okay, fifty
1149
01:20:49.439 --> 01:20:53.800
five to sixty usually, Yeah,
I saw the biggest savings I've ever seen
1150
01:20:53.840 --> 01:20:56.800
from a rock conversion on a financial
plan we did. Now, most people
1151
01:20:56.840 --> 01:21:00.520
don't have the sum of money,
but this is an individual who is fifty
1152
01:21:00.560 --> 01:21:04.840
five years old and has a nice
runway before sold security starts, before ARMD
1153
01:21:05.000 --> 01:21:09.399
start, and doesn't have any tax
play income showing up after this year,
1154
01:21:09.560 --> 01:21:13.640
so has room to fill those buckets
up as much as he can until it's
1155
01:21:13.880 --> 01:21:15.760
even after SOULD scarity starts. He
still has plenty of room because his arm
1156
01:21:15.840 --> 01:21:19.560
ds are gonna be so high when
they finally get turned on. Taking them
1157
01:21:19.600 --> 01:21:24.520
now with these lower brackets saved us
a lot of money. One of the
1158
01:21:24.680 --> 01:21:30.680
unintended consequences of a roth conversion is
medicare correct, and this guy, this
1159
01:21:30.920 --> 01:21:33.640
person didn't have think about that,
right, No, I mean that's where
1160
01:21:33.640 --> 01:21:38.000
you say it's ideal because it's not
going to mess up his Medicare. But
1161
01:21:38.079 --> 01:21:41.359
at a sixty eight year old yesterday
and I did the calculations, and it
1162
01:21:41.399 --> 01:21:45.079
would increase their Medicare twenty four hundred
dollars annually. But the plan says over
1163
01:21:45.119 --> 01:21:46.760
a course of their you know,
twenty five years left in the plan,
1164
01:21:46.800 --> 01:21:49.640
it would save around eighty thousand dollars
in taxes. So yeah, I mean
1165
01:21:49.840 --> 01:21:55.159
eighty thousand over twenty five years versus
twenty four hundred each. It's it is
1166
01:21:55.279 --> 01:21:58.079
hard, you know, you have
to kind of make a value decision.
1167
01:21:58.199 --> 01:22:01.319
Sometimes individuals they care about their kids
to the point where they might use it
1168
01:22:01.359 --> 01:22:03.840
themselves, or if they don't,
they care enough to say, hey,
1169
01:22:03.920 --> 01:22:08.079
this is going to be tax free. Others they don't and they don't see
1170
01:22:08.079 --> 01:22:12.399
the value because they worked hard for
themselves and they aren't a lower tax bracket.
1171
01:22:12.479 --> 01:22:15.960
So it is a per case basis. But just because you're older young,
1172
01:22:15.000 --> 01:22:17.840
it doesn't necessarily mean it rolls you
out either. I think it just
1173
01:22:17.880 --> 01:22:20.800
there's other variables involved you have to
look at. Yeah, we talked before
1174
01:22:20.800 --> 01:22:24.680
you came on to what we talked
about. When you get near retirements,
1175
01:22:24.680 --> 01:22:28.840
there's so many moving parts, you
know, social Security, Medicare or long
1176
01:22:28.960 --> 01:22:31.960
term care, roth conversions, all
of these things that you deal with want
1177
01:22:32.079 --> 01:22:39.399
in your life. But you and
Todd and deal and deal with it every
1178
01:22:39.479 --> 01:22:43.720
day. Yeah, this is this
is your aligible multi factor dynamic, you
1179
01:22:43.800 --> 01:22:46.640
know, throwing some trig and things
like that to consider what are the impacts
1180
01:22:46.640 --> 01:22:49.880
of all these elements, these planning
considerations on one thing, and then the
1181
01:22:49.920 --> 01:22:53.399
next thing and the next there's a
whole bunch that you just don't know,
1182
01:22:53.479 --> 01:22:56.800
you don't know about, and that
is what this type of planning, this
1183
01:22:56.880 --> 01:22:59.920
consideration brings into play. Yeah,
so we're you know, we're super ex
1184
01:23:00.319 --> 01:23:02.960
have you come into this events,
So maybe give us a little sneak peak
1185
01:23:03.000 --> 01:23:06.840
of what we can kind of be
prepared for because you know it's going to
1186
01:23:06.880 --> 01:23:12.279
be yourself as well as we got
Edward Law Firm coming over talking about a
1187
01:23:12.279 --> 01:23:15.560
state planning. We'll talk about markets, but you gotta talk about tax strategy.
1188
01:23:15.760 --> 01:23:17.920
What are some of the things we're
going to be absolutely planning some seeds
1189
01:23:17.960 --> 01:23:21.319
with regards to some of the opportunities
that people may or may not be aware
1190
01:23:21.319 --> 01:23:25.520
of. Right So, for example, did you know that in Arizona,
1191
01:23:25.760 --> 01:23:30.760
long term capital gains for positions acquired
after twenty eleven get a twenty five percent
1192
01:23:30.840 --> 01:23:33.520
subtraction from your tax ble Arizona income. I heard that the other day for
1193
01:23:33.600 --> 01:23:36.560
the first time. I did not
know that. Yep. So if you
1194
01:23:36.640 --> 01:23:40.479
made a million dollars in capital gains
long term, but you acquired it after
1195
01:23:40.560 --> 01:23:44.039
twenty eleven, you only pay tax
on seven to fifty of that in Arizona
1196
01:23:44.600 --> 01:23:46.079
doesn't change the fact the first time
I'd heard of it, that can be
1197
01:23:46.159 --> 01:23:50.039
quite a dramatic tax change. Oh
yeah, there's thirty one listings of the
1198
01:23:50.079 --> 01:23:56.520
subtractions on the ARS forty three towsh
ten twenty two, and that just simply
1199
01:23:56.600 --> 01:24:00.439
being one of them. Another example, we hear a lot of words about
1200
01:24:00.439 --> 01:24:02.159
Arizona tax credit. We touched on
it a little bit already, but a
1201
01:24:02.199 --> 01:24:05.119
lot of people don't really understand what
that means. They hear tax and they
1202
01:24:05.159 --> 01:24:09.760
sort of turn out, zone out. What it really is is the discretion
1203
01:24:09.920 --> 01:24:13.640
of an Arizona taxpayer to say where
their tax money goes. You don't think
1204
01:24:13.720 --> 01:24:15.640
the legislator's putting it where it should
go. You think education should get more
1205
01:24:15.680 --> 01:24:19.119
money. You can do that.
You are the taxpayer line fifty two of
1206
01:24:19.199 --> 01:24:23.760
your one forty. Fantastic, Joel, Thank you for joining us. We'll
1207
01:24:23.800 --> 01:24:26.920
look forward to seeing it as a
seminar on Tuesday, and we'll be back
1208
01:24:27.079 --> 01:24:30.039
right after this break. Thanks Da. Welcome back to the Money Matter Show
1209
01:24:30.039 --> 01:24:32.039
Money, Miss Sebastian Borseni. I'm
here with Dave Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg,
1210
01:24:32.159 --> 01:24:39.079
and Todd Glick Junior yeah, we
had a here. The DALL was up
1211
01:24:39.119 --> 01:24:41.319
point eight percent this week, the
S and P was up point four,
1212
01:24:41.359 --> 01:24:45.920
but the Crazy one equal weighted S
and P up one point seven this week
1213
01:24:45.039 --> 01:24:48.439
for the month up four point one, and the SMP's only up three point
1214
01:24:48.479 --> 01:24:53.520
one. So we're finally getting that
rotation that we talked about. Who knows
1215
01:24:53.600 --> 01:24:56.199
it will stay because last time we
saw it, I didn't stay for much
1216
01:24:56.479 --> 01:25:00.359
for too long. But it really
seems like the value has to some point
1217
01:25:00.600 --> 01:25:04.000
be valuable enough to attract investors.
I mean, it's still at historic levels
1218
01:25:04.039 --> 01:25:10.560
of valuations. We appreciate Joel Johnson
coming in and give us a little taste
1219
01:25:10.600 --> 01:25:14.560
of what you're gonna hear on Tuesday. And I did not know that about
1220
01:25:14.560 --> 01:25:17.760
the long term capital gain. I
found that out from a client he called
1221
01:25:17.840 --> 01:25:24.560
up to see when he had acquired
something a mutual fund because the long term
1222
01:25:24.600 --> 01:25:29.079
capital gain has got different tax treatment
in Arizona. And my instinct was,
1223
01:25:29.239 --> 01:25:32.680
now they don't because they never heard
of it. But apparently he was correct.
1224
01:25:33.880 --> 01:25:39.680
Joel and his brother's side both CPAs
the Johnson Group. If you need
1225
01:25:39.760 --> 01:25:43.239
someone to do your taxes or getting
down there, man, better get on
1226
01:25:43.399 --> 01:25:46.960
it. It's quick, otherwise you
got to extend. They'll be at the
1227
01:25:47.039 --> 01:25:54.840
seminar on Tuesday, and along with
Jonathan Savilia, our financial planning attorney,
1228
01:25:55.279 --> 01:25:59.359
and James T. Harris, the
morning host of Cannisty, and Dean Greenberg,
1229
01:26:00.319 --> 01:26:02.760
who you hear all over the radio
and TV, and of course we're
1230
01:26:02.800 --> 01:26:08.520
all going to be there. So
for those who didn't here in the second
1231
01:26:08.880 --> 01:26:13.039
segment of the first hour, we
are on a current five month winning streak.
1232
01:26:13.680 --> 01:26:18.640
Now, this has happened quite a
bit before, but what's interesting about
1233
01:26:18.800 --> 01:26:21.960
the S and P five hundred after
it's half five month win streaks, there's
1234
01:26:23.000 --> 01:26:27.199
only been two times out of it
looks like about twenty times that it's happened
1235
01:26:27.399 --> 01:26:32.399
that it's actually returned less than zero
percent after twelve months. After ninety three
1236
01:26:32.439 --> 01:26:38.560
percent of the time after twelve months
the stock market is higher after a five
1237
01:26:38.640 --> 01:26:41.760
month return. So you know,
the longest winning streak, I think it's
1238
01:26:41.920 --> 01:26:45.439
it says it here, eleven months
in a row, eleven months back in
1239
01:26:45.560 --> 01:26:49.640
nineteen sixty one. Eleven months in
a row. Gosh, I wasn't even
1240
01:26:49.680 --> 01:26:53.800
involved then, you weren't, Yeah, No, nineteen fifty four happened nineteen
1241
01:26:53.840 --> 01:26:56.880
fifty eight and nineteen sixty one.
Is that like a World War two boom
1242
01:26:57.000 --> 01:27:00.520
or something? Yeah, gotta be
Yeah, was over to that'd be something
1243
01:27:00.560 --> 01:27:04.039
coming on street. Let's have that. Let's let's get let's six more,
1244
01:27:04.119 --> 01:27:06.520
right, Dave, Oh, let's
do it. Let's see if we can
1245
01:27:06.600 --> 01:27:09.920
mess. Let's mess the record.
Let's go for twelve. Let's set it
1246
01:27:09.960 --> 01:27:12.760
in record, a new one.
We'll be happy. I saw those.
1247
01:27:12.960 --> 01:27:16.000
Tesla was in the news this past
week. Wall Street's expecting a near record
1248
01:27:16.520 --> 01:27:21.039
four hundred and seventy five thousand deliveries
in Q one, But that number seems
1249
01:27:21.079 --> 01:27:24.600
like it's a little high to me. Oh, and I'm thinking this is
1250
01:27:24.600 --> 01:27:28.239
going to be closer to four to
twenty five, and I expect analysts to
1251
01:27:28.279 --> 01:27:31.079
be in lowering numbers pretty soon.
However, the stock didn't rally six percent
1252
01:27:31.199 --> 01:27:35.119
at the open on Tuesday after the
company announced they're going to offer one free
1253
01:27:35.199 --> 01:27:42.039
month of full self driving to anyone
who buys a new vehicle. One free
1254
01:27:42.119 --> 01:27:45.880
month of full self driving, and
I'm thinking, no, thanks, no,
1255
01:27:45.159 --> 01:27:48.119
I am not ready to turn the
wheel. And for a mon month,
1256
01:27:48.199 --> 01:27:50.359
what do you mean? Over like
you to pay for the subscription?
1257
01:27:50.720 --> 01:27:54.439
They shut you off. Oh yeah, you know, it's just part of
1258
01:27:54.479 --> 01:28:00.279
the car. It's an upgrade one
hundred and ninety nine dollars a month as
1259
01:28:00.319 --> 01:28:05.479
driving. Yeah, oh yeah,
one hundred and dollars a month for something
1260
01:28:05.520 --> 01:28:09.840
I can do myself. Ridiculous.
I'm thinking, No, I thought it
1261
01:28:09.880 --> 01:28:14.800
was. I'm thinking, well,
like one month is nothing, shame and
1262
01:28:14.880 --> 01:28:17.760
the stock goes up six percent.
Well that same day, Yeah, I
1263
01:28:17.840 --> 01:28:19.600
was gonna say, there's some other
news that came out. Yeah, the
1264
01:28:19.680 --> 01:28:26.159
same day, by D reported earnings
that were less than expected and so and
1265
01:28:26.319 --> 01:28:29.399
so that's well, it's their rival, right, and so the whole story
1266
01:28:29.520 --> 01:28:31.840
is that they're taking older and they're
not doing as well. So that it's
1267
01:28:31.880 --> 01:28:33.840
like, okay, well Tesla's so
that was the thinking, you know,
1268
01:28:34.640 --> 01:28:40.800
possibly hard No obviously had something to
do with that as well. Arapeutics had
1269
01:28:40.880 --> 01:28:44.920
been in the news. Yeah,
this company jumped twenty five percent on Tuesday
1270
01:28:44.920 --> 01:28:50.039
after the company said their experimental weight
loss pill pill showed positive results in a
1271
01:28:50.199 --> 01:28:55.319
small study onto the next phase.
I could keep in minds very early the
1272
01:28:55.399 --> 01:29:00.560
stock was eight dollars in October and
it jumped to eighty five on that news
1273
01:29:00.640 --> 01:29:03.600
about the pill. But it's so
reminiscent of COVID, isn't it if you're
1274
01:29:03.640 --> 01:29:08.279
involved in weight loss or if you're
like to covid, if you got any
1275
01:29:08.319 --> 01:29:11.600
COVID vaccine, boy, you're gonna
go. It's back and forth. It
1276
01:29:11.640 --> 01:29:15.119
means like one week you have Novo
that just released a study and sends their
1277
01:29:15.159 --> 01:29:16.880
price up five to ten percent,
and then next week you see le Lily,
1278
01:29:16.920 --> 01:29:19.359
and then next week it's Viking Therapeutics. I mean you got other companies
1279
01:29:19.399 --> 01:29:24.279
too, like this one from Denmark
Zealand Pharma. The last twelve months is
1280
01:29:24.359 --> 01:29:28.359
up eighty five percent year to date
because they had positive results in a phase
1281
01:29:28.399 --> 01:29:32.840
two study for weight loss COVID baby
covid. The difference between COVID and weight
1282
01:29:32.920 --> 01:29:39.279
loss is people are going to stay
fat. Covid then wasn't going to stay
1283
01:29:39.279 --> 01:29:43.600
around forever. So that's my one
caveat about your comparison. There is understanding
1284
01:29:43.640 --> 01:29:45.800
there's going to be a fat market
for aver. My comparison is how stocks
1285
01:29:45.840 --> 01:29:50.439
are reacting to news that you're involved
in that space. That's all right.
1286
01:29:51.239 --> 01:29:57.319
The reason those COVID stocks fell off
was because no one took the vaccine at
1287
01:29:57.319 --> 01:30:00.439
a certain point. Because COVID went
away Okay, but that's the w point.
1288
01:30:00.560 --> 01:30:02.279
Oh he's saying the way these initials
just he was always eating of it,
1289
01:30:02.479 --> 01:30:04.680
saying these small companies just say,
hey, we're in a weight loss,
1290
01:30:04.760 --> 01:30:08.359
Drugger. It was positive. Okay, we're going bangs by. That's
1291
01:30:08.399 --> 01:30:10.520
not quick. They're in a weight
loss. They're gonna come back down to
1292
01:30:10.600 --> 01:30:13.560
earth. It's their face. Three
sucks well and it's it's it's a pill,
1293
01:30:13.640 --> 01:30:16.359
okay, which is nice. But
keep in mind Pfizer abandoned their efforts
1294
01:30:16.439 --> 01:30:19.880
to do a pill. And I'm
thinking Pfizer might have smarter people than Viking
1295
01:30:19.960 --> 01:30:23.800
Therapeutics. It's just a guess.
I've never heard of Viking therapy. No,
1296
01:30:24.000 --> 01:30:28.760
there you go. But Red Mountain
here in town. I hear edvertisements
1297
01:30:28.800 --> 01:30:32.039
on the the radio about Red Mountain
has a pill, and I can't think
1298
01:30:32.079 --> 01:30:34.680
of whatever the CP one is saying, Jim's got a pill. They all
1299
01:30:34.720 --> 01:30:40.359
got pills, singing singing fidel or
what's the name of the semi glue tide.
1300
01:30:40.760 --> 01:30:44.159
They've got a pill with semi glutide
in it, which is what goes
1301
01:30:44.239 --> 01:30:46.680
into the Olympic shot. Look,
it doesn't have to work. It just
1302
01:30:46.800 --> 01:30:50.760
has to like make people think it's
working. Nah, That's how it always
1303
01:30:50.800 --> 01:30:57.920
has been. Celsius had a tough
week this week. They fell about ten
1304
01:30:57.960 --> 01:31:01.199
percent, although they did announce that
it will be again manufacturing sales and distribution
1305
01:31:01.560 --> 01:31:06.760
in Australia and New Zealand. Company
Expensive Lot launched the product in those countries
1306
01:31:06.960 --> 01:31:13.520
in quarter four four mm down Under. You know, Murk has been a
1307
01:31:13.760 --> 01:31:18.319
really strong stock over the last twelve
months. Twenty three picked up another five
1308
01:31:18.359 --> 01:31:23.079
percent on Wednesday to a new all
time high after the FDA approved a drug
1309
01:31:23.159 --> 01:31:27.359
to treat a rare, life threatening
lung condition. And I thought to myself,
1310
01:31:28.079 --> 01:31:30.079
if it's rare, how much of
that drug are you gonna sell?
1311
01:31:31.239 --> 01:31:34.520
I don't know. This makes this
a really expensive drug. I mean.
1312
01:31:34.800 --> 01:31:38.239
At the same time, if you're
curing it, how long is it gonna
1313
01:31:38.359 --> 01:31:44.840
be around? Did you did you
hear that that a insurance company agreed to
1314
01:31:45.079 --> 01:31:48.039
cover will go be so funny,
We'll go when you cure disease, it's
1315
01:31:48.079 --> 01:31:50.760
not like killing it a dangered species. Does this just go away? Yeah?
1316
01:31:50.800 --> 01:31:54.720
It does. No. Gilliad went
through that there. It depends if
1317
01:31:54.720 --> 01:31:57.960
it's a germ or not. Well, they cure a disease with their drug
1318
01:31:58.000 --> 01:32:00.000
and it's like cancers. You have
to looking at him like he was wrong.
1319
01:32:00.039 --> 01:32:02.359
He's not wrong. They can hurt
a company because then all of a
1320
01:32:02.359 --> 01:32:06.159
sudden, the drug that they sold, they lose all their sales. What
1321
01:32:06.279 --> 01:32:13.399
does gaillad do? I forgot what
they're true? Doesn't the first time,
1322
01:32:14.039 --> 01:32:17.279
for the first time, a health
insurance company has agreed to cover the weight
1323
01:32:17.359 --> 01:32:23.119
loss drug will GOVI under very strict
conditions. The person has to have heart
1324
01:32:23.199 --> 01:32:27.640
disease. You know, there's four
or five criteria you have to meet.
1325
01:32:28.279 --> 01:32:30.159
Like Kramer says, it's to start. I'm thinking, yeah, it's to
1326
01:32:30.239 --> 01:32:34.600
start to collapse of the insurance industry. Some insurance companies will cover them,
1327
01:32:34.680 --> 01:32:39.159
but they want you to go through
the first step or second step, which
1328
01:32:39.279 --> 01:32:43.920
is exercise and diet. You know, they're trying to get rid of that
1329
01:32:44.199 --> 01:32:46.319
so you can just go straight to
the drug. If that's going to happen,
1330
01:32:46.439 --> 01:32:49.800
I mean, it's gonna keep going
up. But who even monitors that,
1331
01:32:50.720 --> 01:32:56.279
even monitors that whether you're doing the
exercise diet the first step and what
1332
01:32:56.359 --> 01:32:59.479
are your benchmarks? What are you're
like, come on, let's exactly.
1333
01:32:59.520 --> 01:33:03.680
It's so objective because if they actually
do diet an exercise. They usually get
1334
01:33:03.720 --> 01:33:10.800
that way down on the road exactly
be the thought. You know, you
1335
01:33:10.880 --> 01:33:13.880
guys, SI, you guys probably
never been in restoration hardware. Right,
1336
01:33:13.880 --> 01:33:17.279
it's now called our h up twenty
pence Shotsdale. We got them all over
1337
01:33:17.760 --> 01:33:21.399
that's the big cities. Yeah,
there's one one I have. I see
1338
01:33:21.439 --> 01:33:25.760
Sue get some magazines all the time. Here. It was. It got
1339
01:33:25.840 --> 01:33:30.560
to seven hundred and fifty dollars a
share during the housing spike back in mid
1340
01:33:30.640 --> 01:33:33.760
two thousand and one, before plunging
a year later to two hundred. From
1341
01:33:33.840 --> 01:33:38.319
seven to fifty to two hundred.
In the last twelve months, it's rallied
1342
01:33:38.359 --> 01:33:43.279
twenty three percent. It jumped another
twenty percent, like you said Sebastian on
1343
01:33:43.399 --> 01:33:47.399
Thursday, despite a disappointing cordial report, because this is the reverse of Walgreens,
1344
01:33:47.479 --> 01:33:53.279
right, Walgreans had a good report, disappointing guidance. Restoration hardware has
1345
01:33:53.640 --> 01:33:58.439
disappointing report and up upbeat guidance.
They said the twenty four is going to
1346
01:33:58.439 --> 01:34:00.439
be to turn around. Here,
what was their reasoning, I mean,
1347
01:34:00.479 --> 01:34:04.159
it's what was the reason behind their
thinking behind twenty twenty four being the turnard.
1348
01:34:04.399 --> 01:34:10.600
The economy is picking up steam and
they're a subscription service. Yeah they
1349
01:34:10.600 --> 01:34:12.760
are. Well, yeah, I
mean they are, but it's still expensive
1350
01:34:12.800 --> 01:34:15.520
stuff. It's very expensive. You
get like if you're a member of it,
1351
01:34:15.680 --> 01:34:17.560
instead of fifteen hundred dollars a chair, it's twelve hundred dollars a chair.
1352
01:34:17.680 --> 01:34:21.479
Yeah, so its still like it's
still premium luxury furniture. No,
1353
01:34:21.640 --> 01:34:26.359
it's absolutely. Instead, they're expecting
unless people just they think they have a
1354
01:34:26.359 --> 01:34:29.119
lot more. You're probably not going
to a mobile scrip furniture, mobile home
1355
01:34:29.159 --> 01:34:31.920
with restoration hardware. No, it's
it's expensive stuff, it is. Yeah,
1356
01:34:32.720 --> 01:34:35.680
UPS, member of fed X,
came out with strong earnings. UPS
1357
01:34:36.680 --> 01:34:40.720
also came out with the good revenue
projections for the remainder of the year.
1358
01:34:41.159 --> 01:34:45.840
Global economy shows no signs of recession. And we've talked about fed X being
1359
01:34:45.920 --> 01:34:51.800
a proxy for the global economy and
UPS probably a proxy for the US economy.
1360
01:34:53.319 --> 01:34:55.239
And guys, who've got about a
minute left, you want to talk
1361
01:34:55.239 --> 01:34:58.119
a little bit more, one more
time about the seminar and yeah, the
1362
01:34:58.199 --> 01:35:00.600
seminars the last chance to sign up
with some on Tuesday this coming Tuesday,
1363
01:35:00.600 --> 01:35:04.479
April second, from twelve to three
at Lapoloma Country Club, we're gonna be
1364
01:35:04.479 --> 01:35:09.119
talking about a market outlook, about
financial planning. We're gonna have Joel Johnson
1365
01:35:09.279 --> 01:35:13.720
talk about accounting, Jonathan Sabilia talk
about state planning, and then j T.
1366
01:35:13.840 --> 01:35:15.119
Harris will be on Who is the
New Morning Host? On seven ninety
1367
01:35:15.720 --> 01:35:17.920
So it's three hours. We'renna have
a panel where you guys can ask us
1368
01:35:17.920 --> 01:35:23.119
any question you want, give me
a lunch is provided be a good informational
1369
01:35:23.319 --> 01:35:25.960
seminar. Only about ten spots left
too, so if you want to see
1370
01:35:26.199 --> 01:35:28.359
get them. Yeah, I think
it's the one hundred and fifty and we're
1371
01:35:28.399 --> 01:35:30.560
down to just about that. Yeah, if you go to our website,
1372
01:35:30.560 --> 01:35:32.239
you can go to cannst website,
you can call us on Monday. So
1373
01:35:32.520 --> 01:35:36.680
it's gonna be a big event and
you're not gonna have many chances to see
1374
01:35:36.760 --> 01:35:42.159
this group of people together in one
place, and you know, see James
1375
01:35:42.199 --> 01:35:44.640
T. Harris and me coming to
to sound for really, I think his
1376
01:35:44.760 --> 01:35:47.319
first public appearance in Tucson, doesn't
it? I think so? So if
1377
01:35:47.319 --> 01:35:49.840
you've been listening to the Cannas Steve
Morning Show and want to see what the
1378
01:35:49.840 --> 01:35:54.319
guy looks like, we're gonna have
him. Well, I'm an in person
1379
01:35:54.720 --> 01:35:58.079
Tuesday and you can see him for
free and we'll leave him buy you lunch
1380
01:35:59.039 --> 01:36:00.920
and we all want to be happy. Yeah right, And they want you
1381
01:36:01.000 --> 01:36:03.439
of A in the final four,
so hopefully in the final four. Well
1382
01:36:03.520 --> 01:36:06.640
I want to be I want to
be healthy too, but a Greenberg financial,
1383
01:36:06.720 --> 01:36:30.079
what we're striving to be is profitable. H
