Feb. 27, 2025

Asteroids, Alien Signals & Icy Moons: #499 - Unpacking the Latest in Cosmic Discoveries

Asteroids, Alien Signals & Icy Moons: #499 - Unpacking the Latest in Cosmic Discoveries

Space Nuts Episode 499: Asteroid Updates, Life in the Cosmos, and SpaceX Mishaps
Join Andrew Dunkley and Professor Jonti Horner in this exciting episode of Space Nuts, where they delve into the latest developments in asteroid research, the ongoing...

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Space Nuts Episode 499: Asteroid Updates, Life in the Cosmos, and SpaceX Mishaps
Join Andrew Dunkley and Professor Jonti Horner in this exciting episode of Space Nuts, where they delve into the latest developments in asteroid research, the ongoing quest for extraterrestrial life, and some recent SpaceX controversies. From the fate of asteroid 2024 YR4 to the intriguing possibilities of subsurface oceans on icy moons, this episode is packed with information that will keep you on the edge of your seat.
Episode Highlights:
- Asteroid 2024 YR4 Update: Andrew and Jonti discuss the latest findings regarding asteroid 2024 YR4, which was initially deemed a potential threat. They clarify the current low probability of impact and explore the implications for both Earth and the Moon, including what would happen if it were to collide with the lunar surface.
- Are We Alone in the Universe? The duo tackles the age-old question of extraterrestrial life, discussing new data and the challenges scientists face in searching for evidence of life beyond Earth. They consider the likelihood of finding simple versus complex life forms in the cosmos and the significance of ongoing missions aimed at detecting signs of life within our solar system.
- SpaceX's Recent Challenges: The conversation shifts to SpaceX, where Andrew and Jonti analyze the recent mishaps involving their rockets, including uncontrolled reentries and debris falling over populated areas. They discuss the implications of these events for space safety and the future of space exploration.
- Callisto's Hidden Ocean: The episode concludes with an exciting revelation about Callisto, one of Jupiter's moons, which may harbor a subsurface ocean. Jonti explains how new analysis techniques have strengthened the case for liquid water beneath its icy surface, further expanding the possibilities for life in our solar system.
For more Space Nuts, including our continually updating newsfeed and to listen to all our episodes, visit our website. Follow us on social media at SpaceNutsPod on Facebook, X, YouTube Music Music, Tumblr, Instagram, and TikTok. We love engaging with our community, so be sure to drop us a message or comment on your favorite platform.
If you'd like to help support Space Nuts and join our growing family of insiders for commercial-free episodes and more, visit spacenutspodcast.com/about
Stay curious, keep looking up, and join us next time for more stellar insights and cosmic wonders. Until then, clear skies and happy stargazing.
00:00 - Introduction and asteroid update
02:15 - Current status of asteroid 2024 YR4
10:30 - Discussion on extraterrestrial life
18:00 - SpaceX mishaps and debris concerns
26:45 - Callisto's potential subsurface ocean
30:00 - Closing thoughts and listener engagement
✍️ Episode References
Asteroid Impact Probability Analysis
https://www.nasa.gov/asteroid-impact
SETI Research and Extraterrestrial Life
https://www.seti.org/
Callisto's Subsurface Ocean Study
https://www.universetoday.com/callisto-ocean

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/space-nuts-exploring-the-cosmos--2631155/support.

 

 

WEBVTT

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By there.

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Welcome to another episode of Space Nats. I'm your host

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Andrew Dunkley. As always, it is great to have your company.

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Hope you're well, and I hope you can stay with

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us because we are going to give you yet another

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asteroid update. Yes, it's still in the news. I was

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reading stories online over the weekend and no, it's all

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doom and gloom twenty twenty four y r four. It's

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going to kill us all. Well, let's find out the truth.

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We're also going to answer a question. It's not the

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definitive answer, but it's the answer. At this point in time,

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are we alone? And the reason new data that's been

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released SpaceX has got itself into the news again for

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all the wrong reasons. And there might be another moon

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in our solar system that harbors a liquid ocean.

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We'll tell you which one it is. On this episode of.

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Space Nuts Channel ten nine.

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Ignition, Space Nuts three two one, Space.

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Nurse and I record it Nels good and he is

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back for more. It is Johnny Horner, professor of astrophysics

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at the University of Southern Queensland.

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Johnny, Hello, good afternoon, how are you going.

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I am well, good to see you and Johnny warned

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me that we might hear some dog interruption, not from

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the dog star but from the dog dogs. Yes, when

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the other half turns up, because they get very excited that.

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We've been really excited at people walking down the road.

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So well, yeah, that's maybe you can hear them. Maybe

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you come, but I'm hearing.

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The filters might be stopping it from getting through to

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the recording. Sometimes that happens. But yeah, well we've heard

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Jordie many many times on the podcast at at friend's house,

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so yes, not unusual, and we don't mind. We've been

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interrupted by all sorts of creatures on this show over

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the years. Let's start off with yet another update on

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our favorite asteroid might not be our favorite. If you

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read the Popular Prayers twenty twenty four four.

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What's the latest, Well, the latest, long and short is

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that catastrophe is averted. It is almost certainly not going

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to hit it. And this has come around a little

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bit quicker than I was expecting, actually, but I've seen

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some beautiful visualizations released by both European Space Agency and

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NASA over the last few days that have shown what's

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going on. So I mentioned on the previous episodes that

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we found this object back on the twenty seventh of December.

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They immediately found some old images that went back to

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the twenty fifth of December when it was closest to

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the Earth, and people have been observing it pretty full

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on ever since. Those that could do, because it's quite small,

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quite fent. As it receded from the Earth and end

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of January, the odds of it hitting the Earth got

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high enough in twenty thirty two, in eight years time,

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that it was flagged up as been potentially threatening and

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it got the second highest ever rating on the Plurmar scale.

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So basically, this thing is something to watch out for.

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We're not saying it's going to hit the Earth, but

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we need more data. As time's gone on since then,

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we've got more and more data, and for a while,

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the probability of hitting us on that day, on the

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twenty second of December twenty thirty two was increasing, and

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that was exactly what you'd expect. So you get more observations,

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which means our knowledge of where it will be on

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that fateful day gets better, so the area of uncertainty

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on where it will be get smaller, so you're shrinking

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the volume of space where the asteroid could be and

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if the Earth stays in that area, the Earth becomes

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a bigger fraction of that total area, so it's more

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likely to be hit.

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Yep.

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And what I said at the time was eventually we'd

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get enough observations that the Earth could potentially fall outside

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that area, so the area would shrink enough that the

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Earth kind of popped out of it, fell out onto

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the other side. And that's what's happened over the last

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few days. Now the Earth is not totally and absolutely

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out of the firing line, but it's almost as good

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as and I'm sure within a day or two it

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will drop to absolutely zero. So as of the time

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where recording this, which is February the twenty fifth, the

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latest probability of an impact is two point seven times

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ten to the minus five, which means no point not

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two seven percent, or one in thirty seven thousand. Now,

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given the last week we were talking about one in

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thirty three, that's a very dramatic change. And that's big. See,

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area that the object is going to be in has

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shrunk and shrunk and shrunk, and the Earth is essentially

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popped out of the outside. And that's what these beautiful

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visualizations that are popping up online are showing an interesting

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part of this so is that while Earth is out

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of the cross heads, the Moon is still in the crosshairs.

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So there remains a possibility that this thing could hit

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the Moon, but the probability of an impact on the

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Moon is still pretty low. So it isn't a case

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of we're saying the Earth is spared. Watch out anybody

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who's part of Project Tartemis, you know, walking around on

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the Moon in eight years time, if that happens. Rather,

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it's just that the Moon still hasn't fallen out of

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that area yet, but bad anticipate it probably will do.

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So the most likely outcome is that this thing will

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come close, but it's not going to be that close.

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Okay, Now, what if it did hit the Moon, what

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would be the effect. Would it just make a mighty

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big crater? It'd make not even that mighty, not even

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that big.

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A good rule of thumb on the Earth is that

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if something solid makes it to the surface of the Earth,

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the creater that thing will create is going to be

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to first order, nineteen times bigger than the impact. Little

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bit of wiggle room in there obviously a different material

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for the impact would have an impact. A different speed

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would have an impact, But first order, it's about a

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rule of nineteen. I think that changes slightly from body

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to body, but not hugely, because it's still the physics

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of rock hitting rock or metal hitting rock. What that

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means is, if this thing is the size of the

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best estiments, which is about fifty five meters, then you're

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looking at about a one kilometer crater, which I mean

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is substantial. It's big enough for us to observe, but

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it's nowhere near the biggest anywhere out there. It's probably

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not big enough that a substantial amount of material will

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be ejected from the Moon to reach us. But people

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have tried to fearmonger that a little bit. I've seen

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a few posts from people online saying if it hits

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the Moon, the Earth will get hit by a load

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of debris. Realistically, not much debris would reach the Earth,

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so we might get a little bit burning up in

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the atmosphere, but we wouldn't even probably notice, because it

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seems fairly small. I've seen some studies arguing that you

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need an impact or at least a kilometer across to

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eject enough material from the Moon for us to rarely

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pick it up and notice it from the point of

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view of looking up.

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Okay, all right, well we've got how long to wait?

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Just other great years, so we can revisit this in

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the future when Fred is once again looking at Aurora

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in Scandinavia.

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Why not? All right?

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So the good news is the odds have plummeted, and

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despite what I read in I don't know how many

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news outlets on Sunday, the story is very very different today.

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Yeah, it's a very fast moving story. And if you

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can find these little animations online, they're worth looking at

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because it shows you a line that is basically all

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the possible places the astro coup, and it's that's the

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result of lots of simulations with slightly different initial conditions

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that all much within our uncertainty where the object is currently,

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and you get this long stretch outline. And then with

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every day of new observations, that line gets shorter and

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shorter and shorter, and now the Earth is right on

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the very end of it, barely touched by any of them.

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And I'm sure tomorrow the earthwallpers scott free.

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Okay, that's good news, very good news.

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Space nuts.

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Now to a question that we do get from time

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to time from our audience asking about whether or not

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we are alone in the universe. I suppose that is

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one of the big questions yet to be answered as

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far as the wider well humanity is concerned. That question

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has got new data attached to it, which is very

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interesting because of the way it's been collected. And the

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downside is the result at this point in time, at

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this point in time, But yes, are.

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We alone so far? I think that's the best answerment

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it is.

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So there are two different ways that we'll look to

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answer this question, and two different things we're looking for.

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One is just to look for any evidence of any

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kind of life, and we're doing that within the Solar system,

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and we're doing outside of the Solar system by looking

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for subtle indications that there could be life in various

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places and will probably amount to finding something that's out

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of equilibrium that shouldn't be there. A good example being

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the phosphene observations on Venus a few years ago that

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reads a lot of excitement but are probably not actually

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a life, but we don't know. It's finding something out

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of place and inferring that life is the best explanation

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that could exist for it, and that's where we're going

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to be doing a lot of work in the coming

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decade or two looking at planets around the starts. That

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is a search for any life, particularly simple life, and

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I think, you know, as a little bit of an aside,

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I think we're more likely to find simple life before

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we find complex life, just because of the amount of

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available real estate and the amount of available time. So

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if you look back at the history of the Earth,

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it seems to be accepted that we've had life on

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Earth for at least three and a half thousand million

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years old. Its fossils are found in the Pilburg in

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Western Australia. That's really kind of cool. We've only had

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complex life on Earth for about five hundred million years,

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so I think there are some studies this week I

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saw that suggest it might have been around a bit

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longer than that. So what that means is if you

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could do something really bizarre and make a dice with

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seven sides, which I've had somebody tell me is almost

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impossible to do, but you know, get a seven sided

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die instead of a six sided die and roll that die.

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You're looking at the Earth at some point in that

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three and a half billion year period, and only if

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you roll a seven would you see the Earth when

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there was complex life. So six times out of seven

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yard hitters when there's simple life. The other side of

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it is if you look at the habitats that life

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occupies on Earth, you know there are a far, far,

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far far greater amount of habitats where simple life can

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thrive than where complex life can thrive. You know, if

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I took you up to forty thousand feet and let go,

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you wouldn't so much fly as plummet in the immortal

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words munty python, but we find bacteria up there. If

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I drop you in, you know, one of the superheated

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lakes in Yellowstone, you'd dissolve quicker than people could pull

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you out, and that would be pleasant. But we find

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bacteria there. So there are far there's a far wider

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envelope of environments where you could find simple life than

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where you'd find complex life. All of that is based

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on the caveat that we're looking at life like Earth

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life of God, and that's a very big caveat. Is

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an assumption that is implicit in what most people discuss,

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and I think it's important to make it explicit. You

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watch Star Trek and you imagine multen metal men wandering

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around on magma planets and things like this, and intelligent

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hydrogen clouds. But when we're looking for things like life,

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it makes more sense to look for something we know

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can exist than for something that we could speculate might exist.

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And so we know of Earth life, so that forms

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our first template, and that will inform our first search.

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Even though you'd admit that there could be other kinds

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of life out there, and with Earth life as a template,

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you'd argue that for most of the time there's been

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life on Earth, we only have simple life. And in

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most of the places and environments you can find life

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on Earth, you can only find simple life. So that

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suggests to me simple life will be more common than

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complex life and the cosmos, and we're more likely to

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find that. Of course, that Zafemer saying that the only

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prediction you can make that is accurate is that all

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predictions will be wrong. So when we do find life,

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please don't shout at me. But that's kind of where

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I take it. But the coming back to the story,

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after I get derailed and go on a diversion, this

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story is looking at the other way, we can search

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for life, which is the one that has the potential

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for greater reward and greater excitement, but a lower potential

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for success, and that's a search for extraterrescural intelligence or

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SETI or the associated search for extraterreassural technology. So this

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is looking instead of looking for any life, it's looking

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for life that has technology at least as advanced as ours,

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that is in some way making itself known to the cosmos.

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Now in some degree, I've heard this described as searching

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for a needle in a haystack when you don't know

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what a haystack is and you've never seen a needle.

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It's trying to listen for something that another species that

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has technology would create that we could identify as being

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definitively caused by life. And because a bit like the

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science fiction analogy earlier on, we can imagine a wide

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variety of things, what this kind of work tends to

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do is focus on the things that we as humanity

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do that we could detect if we were elsewhere in

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the cosmos with sufficiently advanced technology. And the one that

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often gets a hat hung on it and said, this

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is one we'll look at is a search for broadcasts.

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I guess like this podcast is. When it goes out

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on ABC and it's broadcast on the radio bits of it,

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then that's been broadcast in all directions with a certain

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amount of power so that when somebody tunes in the

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car they can listen to it. And that means that

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this broadcast will be winging its way out into space,

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and somebody with a sufficiently sensitive radio receiver pointed at

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the Earth at just the right time could tune in

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and tell me that I'm talking rubbish. Essentially, that's probably

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what would happen, or the churn over and say, look,

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please don't cancel neighbors. You know that needs to run

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on and on and on. Now you make an assumption

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that other technologically advanced species, if they exist, would follow

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a similar technology route to us, then that suggests that

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there'll be a period of time when those species too,

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broadcast to the cosmos. Now, the analogy I use a

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little bit here is a bit like a toddler in

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a cave screaming its lungs out. Eventually they'll learn to

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control themselves. So we're already finding on Earth that we

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are throwing less signal into space, and we used to

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because it's more efficient to broadcast point to point are

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through cables. So a lot of people will listen to

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this through their wired Internet that comes through cables or

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through Heaven for fens, through stalink where it's point to points,

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so there's not much wasted and so eventually people are

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predicting the Earth will go radio acquired again. But this

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is one way that we know we as a society

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are making ourselves obvious to aliens that are out there,

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if they exist and if they've got the technology to

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listen in So that has inspired a lot of people

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to turn the telescope skyward with radio telescopes and listen

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to see if we can get alien signals. And that's

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been fundamentally what set he is. It's been really useful

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to us in the Australian astronomy community. Exit's the many

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reason that the Parks Radio Telescope is still operating. Curtsey

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of the breakthrough a listening initiative. But people have been

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listening and they've tried listening at all sorts of different frequencies.

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They've done targeted searchers looking at a few stars like

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the Sun. They've also piggybacked off other surveys where people

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are getting radio observations for a totally different reason, and

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the SETI people get hold of those observations and check

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them just to see to see whether there's a TV

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broadcast buried in that essentially. But the challenge of doing

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this historically is that it's very labor intensive because there's

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a lot of different radio sources out there that are

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natural and you need to rule them out. You find

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a signal, it looks weird, but if it's natural, it's

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not aliens, so you've got to rule that out. You've

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then got a whole heap of you know, human generated

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signals that you've got to rule out, and they can

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be harder because it could be Spice satellites gone through

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and nobody's going to set to you will actually know

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you've called us. That was my spiceack, like we were

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trying to watch them filming neighbors. I don't know why

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I've got NIBBs on the man, given that I've never

317
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watched the thing, but there you go. I think that's

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what it is. I saw that story and given them

319
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my joke about, you know, searching for aliens. Is that

320
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they'll come and tell us to turn it off and

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stop it. It seems ironic, but anyway, you know, it

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could be a spicack like looking down. It could be

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as simple as a microwave in the next building that

324
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somebody was warming their dinner up. And that has actually

325
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happened before. People has detected microwaves in other buildings. So

326
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it's really really complicated. And what that means is that

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a lot of these efforts to look for alien technology

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and alien signals have been limited by the human resources

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available to them, which brings us finally to this new survey.

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And I know I've gone in a very long roundabout

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route there there's this incredible radio facility called the Very

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Large Array over in the US that the square kilometer

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Array is going to be bigger and better, and we're

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going to have that in Australia, so we can wear

335
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a flag and say, well who but the Very Large

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Arrays been doing incredible observations for a very long time.

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If I remember correctly, those who like the movie Contact,

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which is based on the Calsagen book, some of the

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scenes were shot at the veryl Argirae if I remember right.

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So if I'm wrong again, please don't shout too loudly,

341
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but my memory is that that's the vertyl Argerira that

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featured in that film.

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Yeah.

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Anyway, the Vinyl Largirae has spent a huge amount of

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time scanning, particularly the Northern Hemisphere sky because it's a

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Northern Hemisphere facility, doing all sorts of radio astronomy observations

347
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of all sorts of things. A team has developed something

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that they call Cosmic. Now I'm just finding the acronym here.

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Cosmic is a commensal open source multimode interferometric cluster, which

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is a mouthful, which is why they call it cosmic.

351
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It's a very large computer and software setup that essentially

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attempts to automate that complex process that I described where

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you've got to rule out all of the posts signals.

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It's been heavily built and coded so that every single

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observation that they get, they can run through this pipeline

356
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and it will say, does it have anything in it

357
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that could look like it's of an alien origin? Filter

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it down heavily. If it passes that first test, then

359
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you run another test that said, could any astronomical phenomenon

360
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explain this? If it fails that test, it gets thrown out.

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Next it says, could it be anything that we know

362
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of that is of human origin, and if it fails

363
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that test, it's thrown out. So it filters it down

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to give the people who do the checking a tiny

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shortlist rather than an incredible long list. Now doing that,

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they've been able to take nine hundred and twenty thousand

367
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different observational pointings from the very large array. That's nine

368
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hundred and twenty thousand different radio observations of different parts

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of the night sky and analyze them one after another

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looking for any signal of aliens. And this does clever things.

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It looks for a signal that is localized on the sky,

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so it looks like it's coming from one particular star.

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It even looks to check for the red shift and

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the blue shift of that signal, because if it's on

375
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a planet going around that star, the frequency will change

376
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a little bit as a result of the planet's movement

377
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around the star. So it digs into a whole heap

378
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of things to do these filters and allows them to

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throw a lot of things away. So this has served

380
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eighty two percent of the entire northern hemispherre nite sky,

381
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like actually nine hundred and fifty thousand pointings of the telescope,

382
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and what they've found was they've flagged a few interesting signals.

383
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None of them turn out to be aliens. So after

384
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all this work, after all this waffle, after all my diversions,

385
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the result is we've found nothing. But that's the risky run,

386
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because at the end of the day, if technologically advanced

387
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life is out there, there's no guarantee it will broadcast

388
00:19:50.839 --> 00:19:53.559
this way. As I said earlier on, we're probably going

389
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to be radio quiet again within just a few decades,

390
00:19:56.559 --> 00:19:59.880
even if we don't wipe ourselves out, so we'll stop broke.

391
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So then there'll be a single little shell of radio

392
00:20:02.920 --> 00:20:07.400
emissions about one hundred light years wide, expanding into specially

393
00:20:07.440 --> 00:20:09.599
on the Sun. And if you're in that one hundred

394
00:20:09.680 --> 00:20:12.039
year window, you'll be able to tune in and listen

395
00:20:12.079 --> 00:20:15.119
to us. If you're too early or too late. You

396
00:20:15.160 --> 00:20:17.599
want here now. One hundred years it's a long time

397
00:20:17.599 --> 00:20:19.000
to me and you, and I'd love to think how

398
00:20:19.079 --> 00:20:21.880
last one hundred years on this planet. But in the

399
00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:24.240
scale of the cosmos, our Earth has had life on

400
00:20:24.279 --> 00:20:27.200
it for three and a half thousand million years, and

401
00:20:27.279 --> 00:20:30.480
only for one hundred years of that has the Earth

402
00:20:30.480 --> 00:20:32.720
had a signal. So that's a one in thirty five

403
00:20:32.799 --> 00:20:36.119
million chance of looking at Earth while it's have life

404
00:20:36.680 --> 00:20:40.200
and hearing our radio broadcasts. And that's the lower odds

405
00:20:40.200 --> 00:20:41.240
than the asteroid hitting it is.

406
00:20:41.759 --> 00:20:48.000
Yeah, it's also lower odds are winning payable anyway.

407
00:20:48.160 --> 00:20:49.359
Yeah, it's an.

408
00:20:49.240 --> 00:20:50.160
Interesting story in that.

409
00:20:50.519 --> 00:20:53.880
Okay, Yeah, they've found a new way, but they haven't

410
00:20:53.880 --> 00:20:56.440
found anything yet, and they have had a lot of targets.

411
00:20:56.440 --> 00:21:01.920
But that doesn't mean it's not out there somewhere. It's

412
00:21:01.920 --> 00:21:05.759
not saying there isn't intelligent life. But I do agree

413
00:21:05.759 --> 00:21:08.880
with you that finding microbial life or single cell.

414
00:21:08.680 --> 00:21:10.200
Life of some kind.

415
00:21:11.440 --> 00:21:15.400
Is in the foreseeable future, and we've got missions headed

416
00:21:15.440 --> 00:21:15.720
out in.

417
00:21:17.319 --> 00:21:20.480
A very near future to try and find just that

418
00:21:20.799 --> 00:21:22.559
we do. We might even talk about those in the

419
00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:23.799
Q and A episode later on.

420
00:21:24.160 --> 00:21:26.160
We might do that.

421
00:21:26.839 --> 00:21:31.839
But the probability of finding life in our own solar

422
00:21:31.960 --> 00:21:35.279
system is pretty reasonable. I wouldn't like to put a

423
00:21:35.359 --> 00:21:38.119
number on it, but I think that the odds are

424
00:21:38.119 --> 00:21:43.400
pretty good. Fred also feels the same way. So even

425
00:21:43.519 --> 00:21:47.519
that would be one of the greatest discoveries in human history,

426
00:21:47.559 --> 00:21:51.319
because so far we only know one place where there

427
00:21:51.359 --> 00:21:58.400
is life, and that's us. So time will tell. But

428
00:21:59.559 --> 00:22:03.839
when they the super kella fregilistic array up and running,

429
00:22:04.039 --> 00:22:05.519
that might.

430
00:22:05.519 --> 00:22:08.680
Get and people will be applying these same kind of

431
00:22:08.680 --> 00:22:11.599
techniques to the square kilometer or I want it something now,

432
00:22:11.599 --> 00:22:14.079
because it's the obvious way to do things, especially when

433
00:22:14.119 --> 00:22:16.039
you've got good computing power. But I think the other

434
00:22:16.079 --> 00:22:20.400
thing this highlights, which I think astronomy in general does

435
00:22:20.480 --> 00:22:24.640
really really well, is the importance of reporting no results

436
00:22:24.720 --> 00:22:28.119
or negative results. Now, once upon a time of the

437
00:22:28.160 --> 00:22:30.400
distant past that dated a biologist, and there was a

438
00:22:30.400 --> 00:22:33.279
real problem in her field that when people did an

439
00:22:33.319 --> 00:22:36.799
experiment and they found nothing, they couldn't really get it published.

440
00:22:36.839 --> 00:22:39.599
Either the company that was sponsoring it wasn't very keen

441
00:22:39.640 --> 00:22:41.799
on them publishing it, or the journal said, well, look,

442
00:22:41.799 --> 00:22:44.599
you've not found anything, so we're not going to report it. Now,

443
00:22:44.680 --> 00:22:47.599
Let's say you do an experiment that isn't going to

444
00:22:47.680 --> 00:22:50.160
find anything, but it's not that accurate, so there's a

445
00:22:50.200 --> 00:22:54.279
small uncertainty in your results. You find nothing, you don't

446
00:22:54.279 --> 00:22:56.640
publish it. So someone else goes away and does the

447
00:22:56.640 --> 00:23:00.039
same experiment. They find nothing. But eventually, due to the

448
00:23:00.319 --> 00:23:03.720
where statistics worth. Someone might get a signal that looks

449
00:23:03.759 --> 00:23:08.400
interesting and they'll publish it, and you get a almost

450
00:23:08.440 --> 00:23:13.039
misleading idea of whether this thing happens or not, whether

451
00:23:13.079 --> 00:23:14.920
this thing works or not. And this was something that

452
00:23:14.960 --> 00:23:17.160
she was concerned with. She ended up leaving the field.

453
00:23:18.200 --> 00:23:20.079
And it's a real challenge that you're facing a lot

454
00:23:20.079 --> 00:23:22.880
of disciplines is that it is much much easier to

455
00:23:22.880 --> 00:23:26.799
publish a result that is explicitly, we found something, we

456
00:23:26.880 --> 00:23:29.240
observe something. There is a signal here, we found it.

457
00:23:29.680 --> 00:23:31.839
But publishing the opposite of that, which is we looked

458
00:23:31.880 --> 00:23:35.160
and found nothing, is very hard. And Astronomy has done

459
00:23:35.160 --> 00:23:37.079
and continues to do a really good job of people

460
00:23:37.119 --> 00:23:39.440
being able to publish the results when they find nothing.

461
00:23:39.759 --> 00:23:41.640
And we find this in the extra planet again, we

462
00:23:42.039 --> 00:23:44.720
observe a style. We don't find any planets, but will

463
00:23:44.759 --> 00:23:46.519
include it in a paper and we'll publish the data

464
00:23:46.559 --> 00:23:48.359
to say we watch the STAF for a decade and

465
00:23:48.400 --> 00:23:51.559
nothing happened. And the beauty is that makes that there

466
00:23:51.599 --> 00:23:54.400
to public It means that other people with similar levels

467
00:23:54.400 --> 00:23:57.759
of equipment towards don't waste their time, but it also

468
00:23:57.880 --> 00:24:00.480
means that you've got that data there, so somebody with

469
00:24:00.599 --> 00:24:04.240
higher resolution observations in future can use your dicta as

470
00:24:04.279 --> 00:24:06.960
well as part of their analysis. And it's a really

471
00:24:07.000 --> 00:24:09.359
critical part of science to be able to report what

472
00:24:09.440 --> 00:24:12.519
you didn't find. And I think it doesn't occur to

473
00:24:12.559 --> 00:24:14.319
me that often, but there's a certain amount of pride,

474
00:24:14.359 --> 00:24:17.839
I think in the fact that astronomy remains a discipline

475
00:24:17.880 --> 00:24:20.000
where you can try to look for something and fail

476
00:24:20.519 --> 00:24:22.799
and still get your work published and still progress your

477
00:24:22.799 --> 00:24:26.759
career because you've still advanced our knowledge because you've lowered

478
00:24:26.759 --> 00:24:30.240
the possibilities or you've lowered the fair space of what

479
00:24:30.319 --> 00:24:32.000
could be by ruling out what can't be.

480
00:24:33.079 --> 00:24:37.319
And there's also the fact that what we're witnessing now

481
00:24:37.440 --> 00:24:41.480
is new studies and new papers being published based on

482
00:24:42.240 --> 00:24:48.720
historical data, historical gathering of information, and they hadn't been

483
00:24:48.759 --> 00:24:51.680
able to analyze it the way they can now because

484
00:24:51.720 --> 00:24:54.000
the technology has improved, So they've been able to do

485
00:24:54.079 --> 00:24:58.200
studies now based on information that was published twenty thirty

486
00:24:58.279 --> 00:25:01.480
years ago when the technolog he was far inferior.

487
00:25:01.640 --> 00:25:04.200
So you can you know, you can.

488
00:25:04.160 --> 00:25:07.240
Use those those papers for.

489
00:25:08.839 --> 00:25:11.920
Yeah, And that's the probably we wilcome back to with

490
00:25:12.039 --> 00:25:15.480
our final story in this, I think so. I also

491
00:25:15.519 --> 00:25:16.839
see that Fred has returned.

492
00:25:17.400 --> 00:25:19.599
Hello Fred Watson, here he is.

493
00:25:20.200 --> 00:25:22.000
Hello, how are you, gentlemen?

494
00:25:22.680 --> 00:25:24.400
We are, well, it's nice to see you.

495
00:25:24.440 --> 00:25:26.079
When you you were going to drop in, we thought

496
00:25:26.079 --> 00:25:29.640
we'd just surprise everyone. We didn't pre empt it because

497
00:25:29.680 --> 00:25:31.839
I also considered the possibility you might forgot.

498
00:25:32.200 --> 00:25:35.440
Yes, I considered that as well. Jetlag does funny things

499
00:25:35.440 --> 00:25:36.000
to your brain.

500
00:25:37.519 --> 00:25:38.279
Indeed it does.

501
00:25:39.240 --> 00:25:41.240
You came in right at the end of this story.

502
00:25:41.279 --> 00:25:43.759
And if you'd like to read up on that search

503
00:25:43.759 --> 00:25:47.319
for extraterrestrials, the new way of doing it that has

504
00:25:47.319 --> 00:25:53.359
found nothing yet, you can do that at space dot com.

505
00:25:53.359 --> 00:25:54.359
Okay, we tacked.

506
00:25:56.279 --> 00:26:02.160
Spaces all right, Fred, you gonna sort of why don't

507
00:26:02.200 --> 00:26:04.759
we Why don't we throw to you now that you're

508
00:26:04.799 --> 00:26:06.599
back and you can tell us a little bit about

509
00:26:06.640 --> 00:26:09.880
your trip because you've been away for it feels like

510
00:26:09.920 --> 00:26:11.960
four or five years.

511
00:26:12.119 --> 00:26:16.400
No offense, Joddy, that was just one answer from me.

512
00:26:17.279 --> 00:26:25.640
Yeah, okay, well I want to go there. But the yes,

513
00:26:25.720 --> 00:26:32.519
the trip was pretty hard work actually, because we were

514
00:26:32.680 --> 00:26:35.240
many and I were leading one of her tour, actually

515
00:26:35.240 --> 00:26:38.559
three of her tours, three separate ones, which were all

516
00:26:38.599 --> 00:26:43.160
back to back. We started off in Sweden, went to

517
00:26:43.880 --> 00:26:47.079
far northern Sweden, far northern Norway for the first time.

518
00:26:47.119 --> 00:26:50.920
I got to the North Cape, a latitude of seventy

519
00:26:50.960 --> 00:26:52.880
one degrees, so farthest north I've.

520
00:26:52.799 --> 00:26:53.680
Ever been, I think.

521
00:26:54.759 --> 00:26:58.640
Then we went down back down to Oslo, flew across

522
00:26:58.640 --> 00:27:05.119
to Requivic and had a really wet and snowy ten

523
00:27:05.200 --> 00:27:08.119
days I think it was eleven days in Iceland again

524
00:27:08.160 --> 00:27:11.519
going to bits of Iceland that I'd never seen, the

525
00:27:11.559 --> 00:27:17.319
Northwest in particular, some quite extraordinary places there, including one

526
00:27:17.319 --> 00:27:21.440
of the highlights was the place where astronauts used to

527
00:27:21.480 --> 00:27:25.599
go to train in the Apollo era to train in geology,

528
00:27:25.680 --> 00:27:30.720
and there's a little museum there. It's basically a small

529
00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:36.839
town at the end of the road, almost not very

530
00:27:36.920 --> 00:27:40.000
much to recommend it under normal circumstances, but this amazing

531
00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:43.720
museum and they get visits very frequently from past and

532
00:27:43.759 --> 00:27:47.599
present astronauts, which is fabulous. It was a great experience.

533
00:27:48.519 --> 00:27:53.240
And then we went from Reki Victor Nook in Greenland,

534
00:27:53.319 --> 00:27:56.839
where we spent the last eleven days of our tour.

535
00:27:57.480 --> 00:28:02.519
Greenland is a totally fascinating place in every possible way.

536
00:28:02.559 --> 00:28:06.599
It is stunning physically, you have an ice sheet which

537
00:28:06.640 --> 00:28:10.519
we stood right at the edge of a few coastal

538
00:28:10.559 --> 00:28:14.200
towns and wait for this, no roads between them, not

539
00:28:14.319 --> 00:28:21.319
at all. All trans transport between towns in Greenland is

540
00:28:21.359 --> 00:28:24.440
either by boat or by air, and we did it

541
00:28:24.480 --> 00:28:30.000
by air. So yeah, some amazing stuff. What drove the trip,

542
00:28:30.119 --> 00:28:33.559
of course, were the chance to see sites like the

543
00:28:33.599 --> 00:28:39.880
Northern Lights, chance to walk on glaciers in Iceland and

544
00:28:40.000 --> 00:28:45.599
stand beside active volcanoes. And the thing that blew my

545
00:28:45.720 --> 00:28:50.359
mind in Greenland were the icebergs. Just astonishing, these, you know,

546
00:28:50.640 --> 00:28:53.599
half kilometer long lumps of ice floating past our hotel

547
00:28:53.640 --> 00:29:02.599
window as they carved off the theluly Sat was the

548
00:29:02.799 --> 00:29:03.319
name of the.

549
00:29:03.200 --> 00:29:05.279
Town where we were at that time.

550
00:29:05.440 --> 00:29:08.359
At the end of the ill, I can't say the

551
00:29:08.400 --> 00:29:11.960
word iluli Sat Fjord. Right at the other end of

552
00:29:12.000 --> 00:29:14.200
it is the Greenland ice sheet, and it carves off

553
00:29:14.240 --> 00:29:18.480
all these icebergs as you see them go past the

554
00:29:19.240 --> 00:29:22.759
I guess. The other highlight was, particularly in northern Norway

555
00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:27.079
and Sweden, and also again in Greenland, some fabulous sightings

556
00:29:27.079 --> 00:29:30.640
of the Aurora borealis. We had some great times with that,

557
00:29:31.279 --> 00:29:35.200
wonderful images taken by our whole group and I got

558
00:29:35.279 --> 00:29:39.039
quite a few as well, using sad to say one

559
00:29:39.079 --> 00:29:41.000
of these, it's just believable.

560
00:29:42.279 --> 00:29:45.160
They did take amazing pictures. I saw a couple that

561
00:29:45.160 --> 00:29:46.200
you posted early in your car.

562
00:29:46.279 --> 00:29:48.960
Oh good, Yeah, yeah, forgotten I've done that. It's five

563
00:29:49.000 --> 00:29:51.960
and a half weeks and so it's been a long time.

564
00:29:52.200 --> 00:29:55.799
It's been hard work looking after these wonderful customers that

565
00:29:55.799 --> 00:29:59.559
we have, some of whom might be listening to this

566
00:30:00.880 --> 00:30:03.920
because a lot of our clients sort of came to

567
00:30:04.000 --> 00:30:08.519
us through Space Notes. They're all fabulous people. We've enjoyed

568
00:30:08.640 --> 00:30:12.799
their company throughout three different groups, one or two people

569
00:30:12.880 --> 00:30:16.519
in common throughout both of them, and had a great time.

570
00:30:17.480 --> 00:30:21.960
The one who listened during my absence was telling me

571
00:30:22.279 --> 00:30:25.279
how great they thought John t is. So that was

572
00:30:25.359 --> 00:30:27.799
good news because that's why we asked him to do

573
00:30:27.920 --> 00:30:28.319
the gig.

574
00:30:29.039 --> 00:30:30.799
Yeah, the checks in the past, Fred, thank you.

575
00:30:33.519 --> 00:30:33.759
Yeah.

576
00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:38.079
So hard work but very enjoyable, and I have to

577
00:30:38.119 --> 00:30:41.119
say many and I are sort of now recovering and

578
00:30:41.240 --> 00:30:44.240
facing the next big thing, which is a Dark Sky

579
00:30:44.319 --> 00:30:47.160
conference in Melbourne in about two weeks time. So there's

580
00:30:47.559 --> 00:30:51.240
twenty people coming to that and we'll be talking about

581
00:30:51.279 --> 00:30:52.119
all that kind of thing.

582
00:30:52.599 --> 00:30:56.519
Yeah, Judy and I will be in Greenland and Iceland

583
00:30:56.599 --> 00:30:59.359
later this year, so we're really looking forward to it.

584
00:30:59.440 --> 00:31:01.079
We're actually doing in an Iceberg tour.

585
00:31:01.319 --> 00:31:03.839
Yeah, and on I don't know what kind of bird

586
00:31:03.880 --> 00:31:06.400
it is, probably one that'll get me wet, but yeah,

587
00:31:06.559 --> 00:31:08.519
really looking really looking forward to that.

588
00:31:09.119 --> 00:31:11.079
See, I think you should set the next trip or

589
00:31:11.119 --> 00:31:14.319
one of the future trips for that to coincide with

590
00:31:14.359 --> 00:31:17.279
Germinid Maximum as well. So Germanids are obviously the highlight

591
00:31:17.319 --> 00:31:21.680
of the year for everything, and being in December, that's

592
00:31:21.759 --> 00:31:24.759
perfect dark skytime so you could sit out under the

593
00:31:24.799 --> 00:31:26.960
northern light, sancy natural fireworks as well.

594
00:31:27.759 --> 00:31:31.960
There's always a special reason for watching the Germanids, John

595
00:31:31.960 --> 00:31:33.920
t which you might not be aware of, but they

596
00:31:33.960 --> 00:31:39.519
peak on my birthday, so it's it's a natural it's

597
00:31:39.519 --> 00:31:40.960
a natural birthday prison.

598
00:31:41.680 --> 00:31:43.920
Yeah, and they've just got met and beter and better

599
00:31:44.039 --> 00:31:45.799
as well, because I mean, I know when I was

600
00:31:45.839 --> 00:31:48.160
watching them in the nineties they were very, very good,

601
00:31:49.200 --> 00:31:52.119
and they're still getting better on a decadal basis because

602
00:31:52.119 --> 00:31:55.920
see media streams gradually talking round and we're still what's

603
00:31:55.920 --> 00:31:58.039
seeing the best of them, so they're still improving.

604
00:31:58.240 --> 00:32:01.759
Yeah, yeah, there you go. So just one final comment

605
00:32:01.799 --> 00:32:05.599
from me, if I may, Andrew, and that is thanks

606
00:32:05.640 --> 00:32:08.880
to both of you for holding the floor so well

607
00:32:09.880 --> 00:32:12.759
and especially john Ty for jumping into the hot seat.

608
00:32:12.880 --> 00:32:13.279
It was.

609
00:32:13.519 --> 00:32:18.920
It's been absolutely, absolutely terrific you, you know, being being

610
00:32:19.079 --> 00:32:23.279
our favorite depth and stand by and we look forward

611
00:32:23.359 --> 00:32:27.559
to welcoming you back in them.

612
00:32:27.680 --> 00:32:30.440
Glad you had a good break. That sounds it was.

613
00:32:30.519 --> 00:32:33.759
It's been great. It's been cope with Johnny.

614
00:32:34.200 --> 00:32:37.960
It's all right, okay, well you down all slope the

615
00:32:38.559 --> 00:32:40.480
nice and at seven o'clock in the morning.

616
00:32:42.279 --> 00:32:46.960
He's been terrific, he really has, despite the bad poetry

617
00:32:47.000 --> 00:32:49.279
I throw it. I throwed him from time to time. Yes,

618
00:32:52.200 --> 00:32:54.039
you know, stick around or you got to go.

619
00:32:54.799 --> 00:32:57.720
If I may, I'll stick around. But it's john Ty's gig.

620
00:32:57.880 --> 00:33:00.000
I'm just going to sit in the background and enjoy it.

621
00:33:00.279 --> 00:33:03.039
That's all right, Yeah, all right, Well we're going to

622
00:33:03.039 --> 00:33:05.640
do We're talking now about Johnny's favorite punching bag and

623
00:33:05.680 --> 00:33:08.759
that is Spacex' what's the latest with them?

624
00:33:09.279 --> 00:33:12.359
Yeah. I always, and I say this quite often, I

625
00:33:12.440 --> 00:33:15.000
try and take felly even handed side of things when

626
00:33:15.000 --> 00:33:17.200
I talk about Elon Musk and SpaceX and what they

627
00:33:17.200 --> 00:33:20.279
do because I think it's like all good characters in books.

628
00:33:20.319 --> 00:33:22.559
The best characters are not evil or good, but they're

629
00:33:22.559 --> 00:33:24.720
somewhere in between, and they do good things and bad things.

630
00:33:25.319 --> 00:33:28.200
But this week I think we're talking more about the

631
00:33:28.240 --> 00:33:32.079
things that haven't quite worked right. So earlier on I

632
00:33:32.079 --> 00:33:36.119
think possibly the first episode I was substituting in, we

633
00:33:36.200 --> 00:33:39.880
talked about the starship launch that went wrong and everything

634
00:33:39.880 --> 00:33:44.119
went boom and fragments fell over the Turks and Caicos islands.

635
00:33:44.200 --> 00:33:47.880
And interestingly, there is a link to a pretty lengthy

636
00:33:47.880 --> 00:33:50.839
and quite startling article on CNN which we might be

637
00:33:50.880 --> 00:33:53.480
able to put out with the podcasts. From the thirtieth

638
00:33:53.599 --> 00:33:55.559
of January. I'd not really followed up on it, but

639
00:33:55.640 --> 00:33:59.400
people in the Turks and Caicos were complaining about the

640
00:33:59.480 --> 00:34:02.160
lack of engagement from SpaceX, the fact that they're finding

641
00:34:02.240 --> 00:34:04.599
debris all over the place. A car was damaged by

642
00:34:04.599 --> 00:34:06.960
some of it, and loads of it floating and washing

643
00:34:07.000 --> 00:34:09.519
up on the beaches, and nobody's made any efforts to

644
00:34:09.559 --> 00:34:12.599
contact them or collect any or do the cleanup. Now

645
00:34:12.599 --> 00:34:16.039
that may have changed. SpaceX has historically been reasonably good

646
00:34:16.039 --> 00:34:19.119
at cleaning up its mess, but I was quite solid

647
00:34:19.320 --> 00:34:24.719
reading that article through the level to which there was

648
00:34:24.719 --> 00:34:27.199
a bit of upset there, and that the photographs of

649
00:34:27.239 --> 00:34:30.559
all this debris washing up on the beaches was quite startling,

650
00:34:30.639 --> 00:34:32.440
when in the days after that it was just said,

651
00:34:32.440 --> 00:34:34.239
oh it fell in the Atlantic, it went over the

652
00:34:34.559 --> 00:34:37.280
and kcos but it was out in open ocean, so

653
00:34:37.360 --> 00:34:39.519
that was quite sobering. But I only came across that

654
00:34:39.760 --> 00:34:43.719
because see there was another high profile SpaceX. Things didn't

655
00:34:43.719 --> 00:34:46.480
work as expected. That's made a lot of the news

656
00:34:46.519 --> 00:34:49.320
over the last week, particularly on the BBC website, but

657
00:34:49.440 --> 00:34:53.559
also on space dot com fabulous images again all over

658
00:34:54.039 --> 00:34:56.760
the app formly known as Twitter, and all over Blue

659
00:34:56.800 --> 00:35:01.159
Sky and things like this. Because one of SpaceX's falk

660
00:35:01.159 --> 00:35:05.960
and nine rockets, the upper stages of those are not reusable.

661
00:35:06.199 --> 00:35:08.239
These are the bits that go so high they can't

662
00:35:08.239 --> 00:35:11.199
just bring them back and land them, and typically they

663
00:35:11.880 --> 00:35:14.280
bring them back in a controlled re entry. So they say,

664
00:35:14.960 --> 00:35:16.480
this thing is going to come back to worth, but

665
00:35:16.519 --> 00:35:18.519
we're going to force it to the orbit at a time.

666
00:35:18.639 --> 00:35:20.480
We want it to in a place where it's going

667
00:35:20.519 --> 00:35:23.400
to be far from land, keeping it as safe as possible.

668
00:35:24.079 --> 00:35:26.639
But this one in particular failed to come back in

669
00:35:26.679 --> 00:35:29.119
at the start of February and had gone out of control.

670
00:35:29.519 --> 00:35:31.320
So everybody knew it was going to come back in

671
00:35:31.519 --> 00:35:34.880
at some point at some time in some place, but

672
00:35:34.920 --> 00:35:37.599
nobody was really sure why. So it's like your typical

673
00:35:37.719 --> 00:35:40.159
failed attempt at being menacing. You know, at some time,

674
00:35:40.239 --> 00:35:43.480
at some place in the indeterminate future, something bad might

675
00:35:43.559 --> 00:35:47.599
possibly happen, maybe, and then it did. So there's all

676
00:35:47.639 --> 00:35:51.440
this footage from northern Europe, starting from kind of Lincolnshire

677
00:35:51.480 --> 00:35:54.800
in the UK of yet another one of these space

678
00:35:54.840 --> 00:35:59.159
Debruy re entry events. Spectacular, incredible scenes that people have shot,

679
00:35:59.360 --> 00:36:02.039
but the actually made it to the ground in fairly

680
00:36:02.079 --> 00:36:05.960
substantial chunks over Poland and potentially also over the Ukraine.

681
00:36:06.199 --> 00:36:09.559
Now I've not actually seen any reports showing debris on

682
00:36:09.559 --> 00:36:12.000
the ground in the Ukraine because obviously it's hard to

683
00:36:12.039 --> 00:36:14.440
get images out and given all the other problems they're

684
00:36:14.440 --> 00:36:16.519
facing at the minute. Although to be fair, this is

685
00:36:16.559 --> 00:36:19.159
the last thing that they need is additional bits of

686
00:36:19.199 --> 00:36:23.599
metal dropping on their country. But there are lots of

687
00:36:23.639 --> 00:36:26.719
bits that fell over Poland, including one bit that was

688
00:36:26.719 --> 00:36:28.760
found that is one and a half meters by one

689
00:36:28.840 --> 00:36:32.519
meter that damaged some lights and stuff around a warehouse.

690
00:36:33.360 --> 00:36:35.519
So this isn't just a bit of debris burning of

691
00:36:35.559 --> 00:36:38.199
palmusle in the atmosphere. This again is stuff making it

692
00:36:38.239 --> 00:36:41.320
to the ground intact, which is where people get worried.

693
00:36:41.360 --> 00:36:43.079
And it ties in quite nicely with some of the

694
00:36:43.079 --> 00:36:46.199
things that were being reported back with the Starship launch.

695
00:36:46.639 --> 00:36:49.440
Some statistics that was worked out based on the frequency

696
00:36:49.480 --> 00:36:52.119
things were coming back in twenty twenty three an hour

697
00:36:52.239 --> 00:36:54.960
use of airspace, saying that there was a twenty six

698
00:36:55.000 --> 00:36:57.599
per cent chance in any given year of a major

699
00:36:57.639 --> 00:37:01.400
space debrus re entry event over popular highly used air space.

700
00:37:01.440 --> 00:37:04.119
And that's exactly what this was. The report a few

701
00:37:04.199 --> 00:37:06.800
years ago that said the likelihood of somebody dying from

702
00:37:06.880 --> 00:37:08.760
space every in the next decade could be as high

703
00:37:08.760 --> 00:37:11.280
as one in ten. And this is the sobering reminder

704
00:37:11.320 --> 00:37:12.840
of that, because at the end of the day, for

705
00:37:12.880 --> 00:37:16.719
a bit of a SpaceX rocket, there's one meter buy

706
00:37:16.760 --> 00:37:19.360
one and a half meter lands on your head that's

707
00:37:19.400 --> 00:37:21.880
going to put a sizeable dent in your day. And

708
00:37:22.079 --> 00:37:25.880
there is fabulous footage about this, and I think the

709
00:37:25.920 --> 00:37:28.440
thing that offsets this is that SpaceX are trying to

710
00:37:28.480 --> 00:37:31.280
do things right. To give them the credit, they're bringing

711
00:37:31.320 --> 00:37:33.159
things back in as much as they can in a

712
00:37:33.159 --> 00:37:35.760
controlled fashion. We talked about this with a stylent sapllite

713
00:37:35.760 --> 00:37:38.360
the other week and on the whole they're trying to

714
00:37:38.400 --> 00:37:40.559
do that right now. There are other concerns, things like

715
00:37:40.599 --> 00:37:43.519
the pollution side of it. But this is a big

716
00:37:43.559 --> 00:37:47.960
reminder that space is difficult. Things go wrong and when

717
00:37:47.960 --> 00:37:50.760
we continue to put this many rockets up there, from

718
00:37:50.840 --> 00:37:52.559
time to time, some of them will come back in

719
00:37:52.679 --> 00:37:55.079
an uncontrolled fashion. And this is the second time, just

720
00:37:55.119 --> 00:37:58.800
in this calendar year, where significant trunks of debris have

721
00:37:58.840 --> 00:38:03.760
fallen over popular today space, bits of either lundered or

722
00:38:03.920 --> 00:38:07.079
washed up on pluss where people live. You know, somebod

723
00:38:07.119 --> 00:38:09.320
this car was damaged in one event, some of this

724
00:38:09.559 --> 00:38:13.079
warehouse damaged in another. It's not all planned selling. I

725
00:38:13.119 --> 00:38:14.760
guess it's a tack on from this. And there's a

726
00:38:14.800 --> 00:38:17.559
lot of fabulous coverage of it all over if you

727
00:38:17.639 --> 00:38:18.679
do a bit of browsing around.

728
00:38:19.000 --> 00:38:21.719
Oh yeah, And some of the pictures are incredible and

729
00:38:21.800 --> 00:38:27.639
the footage, this video footage and photographic material that shows

730
00:38:28.360 --> 00:38:31.280
and over a wide area, over a very wide area

731
00:38:31.320 --> 00:38:34.719
from England right through to Poland. These images have been

732
00:38:34.880 --> 00:38:38.159
published and yeah, I mean there's spectacular look at. But

733
00:38:38.239 --> 00:38:40.280
the fact that big chunks are hitting the ground and

734
00:38:40.320 --> 00:38:43.239
doing damage that is scary stuff. And read you and

735
00:38:43.280 --> 00:38:46.079
I have talked about in the past not only the

736
00:38:46.440 --> 00:38:50.079
threat or the potential threat to life as a consequence

737
00:38:50.079 --> 00:38:55.079
of this human being killed or injured under these circumstances,

738
00:38:55.119 --> 00:38:59.840
but also what the impact might be in the insurance

739
00:38:59.880 --> 00:39:04.800
industry because people may have to ensure against this kind

740
00:39:04.840 --> 00:39:05.079
of thing.

741
00:39:07.039 --> 00:39:10.000
Sorry, John Ty, we've got stalin age.

742
00:39:10.079 --> 00:39:10.360
Sorry.

743
00:39:10.400 --> 00:39:14.119
Starship as coming up this week, is that right? The

744
00:39:14.239 --> 00:39:16.639
launch of the next So.

745
00:39:16.639 --> 00:39:21.159
Yeah, that's come around quicker than anticipated, and it's because

746
00:39:21.239 --> 00:39:25.159
SpaceX are very transparent in their efforts to understand what

747
00:39:25.199 --> 00:39:28.000
went wrong, so they've been able to escalate the approvals

748
00:39:28.039 --> 00:39:31.639
through may or may not have anything also to do

749
00:39:31.760 --> 00:39:35.199
with the prominence of their owner at the minute and

750
00:39:35.320 --> 00:39:39.280
his strong connections. But yeah, I'm surprised that they're launching

751
00:39:39.320 --> 00:39:43.119
again so quickly after that went wrong. But they are

752
00:39:44.000 --> 00:39:47.760
very enthusiastic on testing things by destruction. They are quite

753
00:39:47.840 --> 00:39:50.679
rightly of the opinion that when things go wrong, that's

754
00:39:50.719 --> 00:39:52.159
when you learn the most, and that's when you can

755
00:39:52.280 --> 00:39:54.400
viccings and improve them. And they've done a fabulous job

756
00:39:54.440 --> 00:39:57.119
that's how their whole business model has worked all the

757
00:39:57.119 --> 00:39:59.960
way through. But it still feels a little bit too soon.

758
00:40:01.239 --> 00:40:05.079
Well, they're talking about the twenty eighth of February actually, yes,

759
00:40:05.639 --> 00:40:07.880
as the next mega rocket launch.

760
00:40:08.000 --> 00:40:10.639
So and most of these things are streamed live, of course,

761
00:40:10.679 --> 00:40:12.360
aren't they. So you will be able to watch along

762
00:40:12.400 --> 00:40:14.639
with that if you're interested in that kind of thing.

763
00:40:14.639 --> 00:40:17.079
And I think that's another really positive that's come out

764
00:40:17.079 --> 00:40:19.280
of this. When I was a kid, launchers were not

765
00:40:19.360 --> 00:40:21.880
as common, but you only ever heard about the month

766
00:40:21.880 --> 00:40:23.840
of news when something went wrong. And I remember as

767
00:40:23.880 --> 00:40:27.719
a kid challenger, I remember the other Shuttle disaster during

768
00:40:27.760 --> 00:40:30.800
my PhD, but other than that, you couldn't watch it.

769
00:40:30.800 --> 00:40:34.360
It's not like it was live and televised. And yet

770
00:40:34.400 --> 00:40:37.320
now you can tune in, you can watch these things

771
00:40:37.320 --> 00:40:41.760
as they happen, both NASSA launchers but SpaceX launchers. It's fabulous.

772
00:40:41.800 --> 00:40:43.079
It's a great time to be lying.

773
00:40:43.599 --> 00:40:46.079
Yeah, oh well, it's reach to point where people go

774
00:40:46.159 --> 00:40:49.440
to watch these things like they do go to watch

775
00:40:49.480 --> 00:40:51.960
Nest car races and you only go for the crash.

776
00:40:52.039 --> 00:40:57.760
So it's that's kind of where it's sort of and

777
00:40:59.079 --> 00:41:07.639
SpaceX hasn't appointed very they've had several successful failures, so yes,

778
00:41:07.639 --> 00:41:10.880
it's a bit of a scheduled disassemblies. Is that what

779
00:41:11.480 --> 00:41:12.840
you disassembly is another one?

780
00:41:12.920 --> 00:41:13.079
Yes.

781
00:41:13.639 --> 00:41:19.880
Anyway, Friday, apparently the Starship Bait launch is scheduled for

782
00:41:20.039 --> 00:41:21.840
so we'll see how that pans out.

783
00:41:21.920 --> 00:41:25.199
It'd be interesting to see if anybody flying to Johannesburg

784
00:41:25.280 --> 00:41:27.159
with Quantas gets de layed with that one, because that

785
00:41:27.239 --> 00:41:29.920
was another problem with the previous one, because they are

786
00:41:30.639 --> 00:41:32.679
where they look to bring in the upper stedge of

787
00:41:32.719 --> 00:41:35.760
Starship if it goes well, it's directly on the flight

788
00:41:35.800 --> 00:41:39.239
path from Sydney to Hammersburg, and so Quantus flights kept

789
00:41:39.280 --> 00:41:41.559
being delayed at short notice. When SpaceX said we're going

790
00:41:41.599 --> 00:41:43.280
to launch, actually no we're not. Oh no, we're going

791
00:41:43.320 --> 00:41:46.320
to launch now. No we're not, because you can't fly

792
00:41:46.400 --> 00:41:48.679
through the space where a rocket might hit your plane,

793
00:41:48.679 --> 00:41:50.400
even though the odds are vanishingly small,
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