SP 500 Hits New All Time Highs! What’s Next?

WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.520 --> 00:00:04.679 Well, good morning everybody. It's that time again, Sunday morning. Right 2 00:00:04.719 --> 00:00:07.400 here, eight o'clock to ten o'clock, you're gonna hear the Money Matter Show 3 00:00:08.080 --> 00:00:11.679 with Dean Greenberg and friends. We're gonna talk about the markets, and we 4 00:00:11.800 --> 00:00:16.839 got other things to talk about too. It is the Money Matter Show. 5 00:00:17.559 --> 00:00:21.039 And on the Money Matter Show, we don't only talk about stocks. We 6 00:00:21.079 --> 00:00:24.800 talk about the geopolitical side. We talk about what's going on in our nation. 7 00:00:25.199 --> 00:00:30.440 We talk about how different things are affected by different things and cause and 8 00:00:30.480 --> 00:00:36.719 effect. It's important, but we also try to navigate through things when we 9 00:00:36.799 --> 00:00:41.200 are cautious, which we have been, so that on days like Friday, 10 00:00:41.240 --> 00:00:45.000 when we go up and make all time new hides and all the indices all 11 00:00:45.240 --> 00:00:51.439 time new highs, not one hundred percent, not aggressively, but we are 12 00:00:51.520 --> 00:00:56.439 participating. Participation is important. I can't tell you how many people would love 13 00:00:56.479 --> 00:00:59.320 to have gone to cash two months ago, six months ago, a year 14 00:00:59.359 --> 00:01:03.000 ago and a half ago because they don't believe it's gonna happen now. Do 15 00:01:03.120 --> 00:01:10.239 I think it's overdone? Do I think that maybe we are probably too high 16 00:01:10.280 --> 00:01:14.480 with evaluations? Do we think do I think we're too giddy with the fed 17 00:01:14.599 --> 00:01:18.439 going to be able to lowess interest rates. Yeah, I do. But 18 00:01:18.640 --> 00:01:22.719 that does not mean I'm selling everything and going to cash. And that doesn't 19 00:01:22.760 --> 00:01:25.920 mean that I'm not going to try to make some money as we do as 20 00:01:25.920 --> 00:01:29.280 the market goes higher. But I will mitigate risk. I won't make as 21 00:01:29.359 --> 00:01:32.680 much, maybe if we go up another fifteen to twenty percent this year, 22 00:01:33.560 --> 00:01:38.640 but I'll be in the categories of ten twelve percent on a balanced account, 23 00:01:38.879 --> 00:01:46.439 earning interest, making some appreciation. Remember the nineties, it got ridiculous, 24 00:01:46.799 --> 00:01:49.760 but it kept going and going and going and going. We are in a 25 00:01:49.799 --> 00:01:53.400 presidential year. I don't see how we have a big crash and burn. 26 00:01:53.840 --> 00:01:59.959 I do see us in a trading range forty nine hundred maybe to five thousand 27 00:02:00.079 --> 00:02:04.959 on the upside and probably forty five hundred forty six hundred on the down side 28 00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:12.319 on the S and P five hundred. This week we went out point seven 29 00:02:12.400 --> 00:02:15.840 percent on the down one and zo point two percent on the S ANDP two 30 00:02:15.919 --> 00:02:22.240 and a half percent on the Nasdaq. But interesting in this industry. Interesting 31 00:02:22.680 --> 00:02:25.159 The rest of two thousand was down a half a percent, and the equal 32 00:02:25.319 --> 00:02:31.000 weighted S ANDP was down point one, which means guess what one percent, 33 00:02:31.280 --> 00:02:36.319 one point three percent of the S and P is moving up again because of 34 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:39.719 the big tech stocks, those seven stocks, six stocks, whatever you want 35 00:02:39.719 --> 00:02:44.319 to call them, but those are the ones, the Googles, the Amazons, 36 00:02:44.360 --> 00:02:49.199 the Apples, and you know Navidia Nvidy is five hundred and ninety one 37 00:02:49.319 --> 00:02:52.919 dollars. And as a money managed you say, I gotta take some money 38 00:02:52.919 --> 00:02:57.000 off the table. But this one's a little different. I have a target. 39 00:02:57.199 --> 00:03:00.960 I have a target on it's six fifty to seven hundred to start reducing 40 00:03:00.479 --> 00:03:04.080 some of my exposure. And if it wants to go high from there, 41 00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:07.680 I'm still going to own some, but I am not going to go ahead. 42 00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:14.120 And you know, stay fully invested in that position and hope that it 43 00:03:14.159 --> 00:03:16.240 goes to eight hundred and nine hundred times it could, and I hope it 44 00:03:16.240 --> 00:03:21.520 does. I mean, you realize that Apple was saying that, not Apple, 45 00:03:21.599 --> 00:03:25.159 Meta was talking about spending billions of dollars on buying their chips. That's 46 00:03:25.199 --> 00:03:34.599 what's sentence so high on Friday. Bottom line is allocations balance make a portfolio 47 00:03:35.479 --> 00:03:39.080 where individuals were not institutions where we're only trying to be able to beat one 48 00:03:39.159 --> 00:03:44.639 part. Large caps, small cab, value, cap international, whatever it 49 00:03:44.759 --> 00:03:47.199 is, fixed income, no, your portfolios are made up of all of 50 00:03:47.240 --> 00:03:52.080 it, all of it, So you got to realize where it's going. 51 00:03:52.159 --> 00:03:54.879 So for the year so far, the nazac's upt the most two percent. 52 00:03:57.840 --> 00:04:00.159 S and P was up one and a half percent for the year, and 53 00:04:00.319 --> 00:04:03.960 that was only up half a percent. Russell two thousand is down four percent, 54 00:04:04.639 --> 00:04:11.960 and the equal weighted SMP is down one point three percent on the year. 55 00:04:13.319 --> 00:04:15.840 So where does that put you, Well, it puts you in a 56 00:04:15.919 --> 00:04:20.720 nice position to say, if I'm in these stocks running, you better know 57 00:04:20.759 --> 00:04:25.839 where you're going to cut some back. If you're in the SMP and all, 58 00:04:26.600 --> 00:04:30.839 that's great, you can mitigate that risk. If you're in the in 59 00:04:30.879 --> 00:04:36.480 the dividend paying stocks, you'll hold on because you're paying you of the dividends. 60 00:04:36.519 --> 00:04:44.040 And eventually there's giddiness and the the the the narrowness of the market is 61 00:04:44.079 --> 00:04:46.439 going to spread out, and it's going to spread out to more down type 62 00:04:46.480 --> 00:04:51.519 industrial type stocks as we move higher. Very important to understand how to do 63 00:04:51.560 --> 00:04:56.560 that and how to keep an allocation in the portfolio. If you're just sitting 64 00:04:56.600 --> 00:05:02.839 there, if you're just sitting there and not doing anything, well, then 65 00:05:02.839 --> 00:05:08.000 don't ever think about it, and never worry about it and enjoy the ride. 66 00:05:10.199 --> 00:05:12.839 Very few people can do that. When the markets are falling and the 67 00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:15.279 news media is out there trying to get eyeballs on whatever they're doing, whether 68 00:05:15.319 --> 00:05:21.839 it's news clicks, social media, they will make sure that you are uncomfortable. 69 00:05:24.439 --> 00:05:29.079 So the best way to be not uncomfortable is to be able to use 70 00:05:29.120 --> 00:05:34.600 these rallies and take some money off the table so you have whatever allocation you 71 00:05:34.639 --> 00:05:41.199 want. So say you like the sixty forty situation, but because your courses, 72 00:05:41.199 --> 00:05:44.399 you're only at fifty. But now you move back up to sixty because 73 00:05:44.399 --> 00:05:47.519 the markets are running again. You compare that back to fifty five. You 74 00:05:47.519 --> 00:05:54.519 compare that back to fifty, and that's easy to do. You just cut 75 00:05:54.560 --> 00:05:58.240 the backs from the stocks that are running that are more allocated than you want 76 00:05:58.279 --> 00:06:00.519 it to be. You want to be three or five five percent in the 77 00:06:00.560 --> 00:06:02.920 position, and now it's eight or ten. You cut that back. It 78 00:06:02.959 --> 00:06:08.160 doesn't mean you sell the whole position, you sell part of it. But 79 00:06:08.360 --> 00:06:16.879 managing money for individuals is a lot different than managing money for institutions. You 80 00:06:16.959 --> 00:06:29.519 have a much more important role in understanding the individual's risk tolerance mindset and how 81 00:06:29.560 --> 00:06:34.519 to navigate that along with a portfolio that meets his risk tolerance and is emotional 82 00:06:34.560 --> 00:06:40.399 tolerance. Is emotional tolerance. The market's are rallying. Why am I not 83 00:06:40.439 --> 00:06:44.399 making more money? Is emotional tolerance? When the markets are going down? 84 00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:46.920 Why didn't you protect me? Why don't you get me out? Why didn't 85 00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:49.759 you see this coming? What are you gonna do? Forget all that. 86 00:06:50.759 --> 00:06:54.160 I have a game plan when the market goes up, and I have a 87 00:06:54.199 --> 00:06:58.319 game plan with if the market goes down. You try to anticipate, which 88 00:06:58.360 --> 00:07:02.920 is probably more risky. You're not risky, And right now I believe that 89 00:07:02.959 --> 00:07:06.800 there's more risk in the market than we would Yeah. Yeah, we can 90 00:07:06.839 --> 00:07:10.839 go up two three percent from here. I don't I don't see that. 91 00:07:10.839 --> 00:07:13.639 It's a probably. We can be up five percent for the first quarter or 92 00:07:13.639 --> 00:07:16.480 so first five six months, which would put us up another three percent or 93 00:07:16.519 --> 00:07:23.600 so four percent, and that would put us where probably uh maybe two ordre 94 00:07:23.600 --> 00:07:28.120 more points run around the five thousand levels or so. I'm not saying we 95 00:07:28.160 --> 00:07:30.639 can't get there. What I'm saying is weird as it go from there. 96 00:07:32.560 --> 00:07:35.240 We have a debt ceiling that we just moved back. So the market gets 97 00:07:35.279 --> 00:07:40.759 all excited and rallies like this, the fundamentals have to happen. What is 98 00:07:40.800 --> 00:07:43.240 the Fed going to say? You think the Fed wants inflation, They don't 99 00:07:43.279 --> 00:07:45.839 want more inflation. They're gonna have the raise rates, not lower rates. 100 00:07:45.959 --> 00:07:48.399 If there's ever a hint of them having the raise rates again, you're gonna 101 00:07:48.399 --> 00:07:54.759 see this market tumble. That doesn't mean to get scared. It means understand 102 00:07:54.759 --> 00:07:59.199 how to hedge, how to take money off the table. Hey, right 103 00:07:59.240 --> 00:08:01.959 now you can put money and market the money market funds. They get close 104 00:08:01.000 --> 00:08:07.040 to five percent. That's pretty good. While you sit and wait for an 105 00:08:07.079 --> 00:08:11.600 opportunity to arise. There's always opportunities. Or people say, well where are 106 00:08:11.639 --> 00:08:15.839 the opportunities now? Well, let's go back not too long ago. Last 107 00:08:15.879 --> 00:08:20.240 year. I remember when Target got down to about one ten to one twenty. 108 00:08:20.240 --> 00:08:24.279 Nobody wanted to buy it. But where is it now one forty one? 109 00:08:24.439 --> 00:08:26.560 They didn't want to buy it? You know, they have this wokeness 110 00:08:26.560 --> 00:08:28.600 and all this that. Well, eventually they get rid of it. They 111 00:08:28.639 --> 00:08:33.360 change, and people forget and they go and they remember why they're backing buying 112 00:08:33.399 --> 00:08:37.559 Target. So where are we today, Boeing Bowey had a problem a couple 113 00:08:37.559 --> 00:08:39.879 of years ago, went all the way down to ninety nine. Nobody wanted 114 00:08:39.919 --> 00:08:41.279 it. Now it got to two seventy. Everybody wanted it. Now they 115 00:08:41.279 --> 00:08:43.879 are problems with the planes again. It got down to two hundred again. 116 00:08:45.399 --> 00:08:50.120 Eventually that's going to be another good opportunity if everything falls in the right places 117 00:08:50.559 --> 00:08:54.919 for that to happen. Going forward. I think Raytheon it got battered. 118 00:08:54.000 --> 00:08:56.360 It was one ten and got all the way down to the I don't know 119 00:08:56.440 --> 00:09:01.440 seventy one. It's about eighty two to eighty three. That's situation. That's 120 00:09:01.559 --> 00:09:05.720 I believe they turnaround situation over time. You say there's no opportunities, they 121 00:09:05.759 --> 00:09:09.480 am telling you. You look for these great companies that have gotten beaten up, 122 00:09:09.519 --> 00:09:11.919 and you give them a few years to come out of where they are. 123 00:09:13.120 --> 00:09:16.320 Disney, whether you like Disney and Donnie you don't want to buy it, 124 00:09:16.360 --> 00:09:18.679 that's your own preference. But at the end of the day, I'm 125 00:09:18.679 --> 00:09:22.080 looking on how to make money, and Disney got down into the high seventies, 126 00:09:22.120 --> 00:09:26.639 low eighties. It's ninety two. There's a couple of these people that 127 00:09:26.679 --> 00:09:31.919 want proxy fights going on. These hedge fund guys that want more of things. 128 00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:35.080 And you know what, every coming to time they do that, the 129 00:09:35.120 --> 00:09:37.759 stocks end up doing better because they get rid of the fluff, They get 130 00:09:37.840 --> 00:09:41.799 rid of the expenses that don't need to be there, and they and they 131 00:09:41.840 --> 00:09:48.039 streamline it, and they get the companies working on a profitable basis to move 132 00:09:48.080 --> 00:09:52.360 forward. They they insert capital in the right places. And that's why I 133 00:09:52.360 --> 00:09:56.600 see it happening with Disney. Does that mean it's gonna go straight up? 134 00:09:56.679 --> 00:09:58.240 Hell? No, I don't know what's gonna happen with it, but I 135 00:09:58.279 --> 00:10:03.080 do know that is better to buy these stocks are twenty thirty dollars cheaper than 136 00:10:03.080 --> 00:10:07.840 where they were than buying stocks that are closer to their highs or highs and 137 00:10:07.919 --> 00:10:13.720 are overvalued on a on a on a valuation basis. So that's how I 138 00:10:13.759 --> 00:10:16.039 look at it, and that's what I do, and that's how I go 139 00:10:16.159 --> 00:10:18.399 forward, and that's what the markets. We're going to talk a lot more 140 00:10:18.399 --> 00:10:22.759 about that, but remember the show is brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group. 141 00:10:24.480 --> 00:10:26.840 And Greenberg Financial Group is both a registered investment advisory and they broke a 142 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:35.600 dealer registered with the SEC members with with SIPIK and and and and now Zach 143 00:10:35.159 --> 00:10:41.519 Okay and Finra. But we always talk about risk, and we have to 144 00:10:41.559 --> 00:10:43.919 tell you you got to understand your risk. You gotta understand risk tolerance, 145 00:10:43.919 --> 00:10:48.960 you gotta understand the risk that's involved. It's so much fun to ride a 146 00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:52.759 stock like in the video from one hundred and fifty to five hundred and eighty 147 00:10:52.840 --> 00:10:56.960 dollars ninety dollars, but there's risk if you don't take someone at offer, 148 00:10:56.000 --> 00:11:00.559 that pulls the other way. Yes, if you don't want and you want 149 00:11:00.559 --> 00:11:01.919 to and you want to roll the dice, that's great. Maybe it's going 150 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:05.320 higher. I believe it is going to go higher, but that that's I 151 00:11:05.399 --> 00:11:11.000 understand where it fits with my allocation. Is my allocation probably more than I 152 00:11:11.039 --> 00:11:13.960 want it to be in some portfolio, Yes it is. But I have 153 00:11:13.039 --> 00:11:16.039 a place where I want to sell and there will be a place that I 154 00:11:16.039 --> 00:11:20.360 will take some money off the table even if it goes higher. So understand 155 00:11:20.440 --> 00:11:24.960 your risks, understand your risks, and then we can move forward from there. 156 00:11:26.519 --> 00:11:28.240 So there's a couple of things I wanted to talk about a little bit 157 00:11:28.320 --> 00:11:33.799 off of the investment track. We'll get back to that as we go through 158 00:11:33.799 --> 00:11:37.480 the show. With everybody but you know, obviously this week it was pretty 159 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:41.440 tough for the community and all. Some of you don't care about sports, 160 00:11:41.440 --> 00:11:46.320 and I get that, but this is beyond just sports. It's beyond just 161 00:11:48.399 --> 00:11:52.159 you know, kids playing getting scholarships money, you know, and you read 162 00:11:52.200 --> 00:11:54.799 all these things and you hear all these things. Oh, I would go 163 00:11:54.879 --> 00:11:56.120 for the money. I would do this, I would do that. Don't 164 00:11:56.120 --> 00:12:03.320 tell me. You know what, ten has no price. You lose your 165 00:12:03.360 --> 00:12:11.320 integrity. It's very difficult to ever buy that back. It only takes once, 166 00:12:11.879 --> 00:12:16.919 only takes once. Coach Fish came to town. I get it. 167 00:12:18.240 --> 00:12:20.960 Nobody knew anything that too much about him. But the only thing we did 168 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:24.159 know about him and we were all right, he wouldn't stay here long because 169 00:12:24.159 --> 00:12:28.720 if you look at his history, we were the seventeenth stop. Every place 170 00:12:28.759 --> 00:12:33.919 he went was only one point five seven years on the average. That's not 171 00:12:33.080 --> 00:12:39.799 normal. So why is that? What type of person does that? Somebody 172 00:12:39.799 --> 00:12:46.440 that doesn't care about anybody else but themselves. The one thing he doesn't realize 173 00:12:46.480 --> 00:12:50.840 is he was lucky this year. Good coach, great coaching staff. He 174 00:12:50.960 --> 00:12:54.720 was lucky. He brought in Duyna Kena, who absolutely helped out the defense 175 00:12:56.159 --> 00:13:03.559 Duayna Keene is one of the best coaches in all of football college football. 176 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:09.320 What he also did was not realize that Noah was better than the lawyer. 177 00:13:11.799 --> 00:13:15.840 Because all summer, all spring, all all the first three, four, 178 00:13:16.000 --> 00:13:22.120 five games, whatever it was, Noah was sitting on the bench. The 179 00:13:22.200 --> 00:13:28.399 lawyer gets hurt, Noah comes in. Noah proves himself one game, two 180 00:13:28.440 --> 00:13:31.919 games, three games, it became impossible to remove him from quarterback. And 181 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:35.440 then they got on a roll, and then they got confidence and the rest 182 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:39.440 of the team got confidence. Any football coach in America will tell you it's 183 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:43.960 lucky. And you want to know why that's lucky. Think about TCU. 184 00:13:43.080 --> 00:13:48.360 Not this year, but last year. TCU's starting quarterback went down before the 185 00:13:48.360 --> 00:13:52.600 first after the first game down, couldn't come back the rest of the year. 186 00:13:52.919 --> 00:13:56.639 Their backup quarterback comes in. It takes them all the way to the 187 00:13:56.759 --> 00:14:03.159 championship, all the way. They lost in the championship, they got killed. 188 00:14:03.559 --> 00:14:07.360 But TCU made it this year that starting quarterback they were supposed to start 189 00:14:07.440 --> 00:14:13.679 last year came back and started this year after he got healed dismal year. 190 00:14:13.000 --> 00:14:18.879 I think they won five games, five and seven after going to the championship. 191 00:14:18.480 --> 00:14:24.399 Not everybody laught, Trust me, it means a lot got lucky. 192 00:14:24.679 --> 00:14:30.000 Sonny Dice would tell you it turned out that it worked out perfectly. That 193 00:14:30.159 --> 00:14:31.559 was what's supposed to happen. Yes, you got to work hard and do 194 00:14:31.639 --> 00:14:37.600 all the things and things even out. But he got lucky. You're lucky 195 00:14:37.639 --> 00:14:41.200 because you don't know who's going to be the best game player in there. 196 00:14:43.159 --> 00:14:46.399 You assume as a coach, but you go from there. So the way 197 00:14:46.440 --> 00:14:48.559 I look at it, everyone, oh you can do what you want. 198 00:14:48.600 --> 00:14:52.240 You can do it. When you coach Tucson and you built it from where 199 00:14:52.240 --> 00:14:58.639 it was, you have a responsibility to this community. You didn't just hurt 200 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:03.879 the players, hurt the students and the university. You heard it, the 201 00:15:03.919 --> 00:15:09.519 community. We are not a big community. We started to rally behind it 202 00:15:09.759 --> 00:15:13.960 for all those that don't think sports matter. The money that it brings to 203 00:15:13.039 --> 00:15:18.360 the university, for other kids to get scholarships, the money it brings to 204 00:15:18.399 --> 00:15:24.080 the all the stores and businesses around the university is incredible. The merchandise they 205 00:15:24.120 --> 00:15:28.720 can sell out, go into the Bowl games, things like that. It's 206 00:15:28.759 --> 00:15:37.639 the community and Tucson has a community that pulls together once things are going going 207 00:15:37.879 --> 00:15:41.120 in the right direction. They don't pull together beforehand. Afterwards, this man 208 00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:50.039 sat down with the donors and told them what their number was, and within 209 00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:56.360 three weeks, four weeks maybe they got ten million dollars worth of commitments to 210 00:15:56.399 --> 00:16:02.919 give to Coach Fish. They shook each other's hand, looked each other in 211 00:16:02.960 --> 00:16:11.639 the eye and said, I'm staying he got what he wanted. He didn't 212 00:16:11.639 --> 00:16:15.000 tell him they wanted seven million. He said he wanted five million, and 213 00:16:15.039 --> 00:16:18.360 he wanted money for his coaches, and he needed nil money. They raised 214 00:16:18.440 --> 00:16:22.360 that. It was there people who are going. They were able to raise 215 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:27.440 ticket prices. It's gonna be almost impossible to raise ticket prices until things are 216 00:16:27.480 --> 00:16:33.720 proven. That's the problem that a guy like that doesn't realize what he leaves 217 00:16:33.759 --> 00:16:40.000 behind. If he starts taking all the players, it gets even worse. 218 00:16:41.159 --> 00:16:45.559 So what kind of person does this? I told you an individual that's very 219 00:16:45.600 --> 00:16:52.919 selfish and doesn't care about anything else but themselves. He could have said he 220 00:16:52.960 --> 00:16:56.080 wanted seven million and they said no, he didn't. He said five. 221 00:16:56.399 --> 00:17:02.919 Coach Fish never played football in his life. He was a tennis player from 222 00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:06.839 back East. A tennis player. What is a tennis player tennis player is 223 00:17:06.839 --> 00:17:11.799 an individual, selfish person who just cares about how he does in his matches. 224 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:15.519 You say, there's a tennis team, but you don't really care about 225 00:17:15.519 --> 00:17:19.200 the tennis team. You care about how you do as an individual. Because 226 00:17:19.240 --> 00:17:26.039 it's Jew that wants to get ranked and move up and move forward. He 227 00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:30.839 uses football as his corporate business to step up the ladders, to move on, 228 00:17:32.680 --> 00:17:37.839 and everybody's gone with him because he's got that personality that sucks you in. 229 00:17:40.279 --> 00:17:41.200 Now. People say, oh, I don't wish him bad, I 230 00:17:41.200 --> 00:17:45.839 don't wish him ill, let him go, let him do you know what. 231 00:17:45.960 --> 00:17:49.240 I don't do that. I tell you the way I feel. I 232 00:17:49.279 --> 00:17:52.880 will support you. You do your hard work, you come to work, 233 00:17:52.880 --> 00:17:56.319 you're ethical, you're bringing kids. You do everything hard, and you win, 234 00:17:56.400 --> 00:18:00.960 you lose. I support you, but you your word, your handshakes, 235 00:18:00.000 --> 00:18:03.079 your handshake, You look me in the eye, and we do that. 236 00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:07.720 When you leave. Don't ask me to tell your good luck. Don't 237 00:18:07.759 --> 00:18:11.119 ask me to tell you your everything's great, because I don't wish that on 238 00:18:11.359 --> 00:18:17.400 him. I want him to fall and fall hard. So people down the 239 00:18:17.519 --> 00:18:22.200 road understand when you leave like he left, when your word is in your 240 00:18:22.200 --> 00:18:26.519 word, and your integrity goes downhill. It doesn't help you. The grass 241 00:18:26.599 --> 00:18:30.480 is not greener on the other side. I do not want him to be 242 00:18:30.519 --> 00:18:34.640 successful because it will hurt us. He hurt us as a community, and 243 00:18:34.720 --> 00:18:41.319 I want a community to rise above this. Now with that said, I 244 00:18:41.359 --> 00:18:45.960 know some people are involved with our new coach Brennan and some aren't. Yeah, 245 00:18:47.000 --> 00:18:49.000 I'm going to tell you this. I think it's a great hire. 246 00:18:51.039 --> 00:18:53.079 We didn't have the money to go get seven million, eight million dollars because 247 00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:57.839 the regions won't allow it for whatever reason. Maybe we got to deal with 248 00:18:57.880 --> 00:19:02.119 that and figure that out. But that's not on us. That's gonna have 249 00:19:02.160 --> 00:19:04.599 That's the fight that the university has to make with the regions and the donors 250 00:19:04.599 --> 00:19:08.200 have to make with the regions. We got to hope that the donors are 251 00:19:08.200 --> 00:19:11.680 still behind the new guy. I think over time they're going to get there. 252 00:19:12.720 --> 00:19:18.920 But everybody in this community has to rise up and help if this coach 253 00:19:18.960 --> 00:19:22.400 is going to be good and continue to go. I know all the things. 254 00:19:21.680 --> 00:19:25.920 He came here, his brother played here, and he was a graduate 255 00:19:25.920 --> 00:19:29.839 assistant. His wife went to Uvai. Those are great. How about that's 256 00:19:29.839 --> 00:19:34.480 where we start. That's good I've been told by high end coaches in the 257 00:19:34.519 --> 00:19:40.920 coaching profession that this coach Brennan is a great guy, and he's a great 258 00:19:40.920 --> 00:19:45.079 coach, and players love playing for him. As a football coach myself, 259 00:19:45.119 --> 00:19:48.720 I am telling you, when you are players that are playing for you, 260 00:19:48.960 --> 00:19:52.960 all these other things go out the window. They care about you because you 261 00:19:52.480 --> 00:19:56.839 care about them. Fish said he cared about him, but didn't. So 262 00:19:56.880 --> 00:20:00.759 these kids have been more burned. Now what has to happen is they got 263 00:20:00.759 --> 00:20:06.119 to develop trust. So all I ask for this new guy is develop trust. 264 00:20:06.680 --> 00:20:11.119 Develop trust so we can go ahead and cheer and support every kid that's 265 00:20:11.160 --> 00:20:17.799 on there now. Noah for the Fitter and t Mac and some of these 266 00:20:17.839 --> 00:20:22.240 other guys stay. I am telling you they will go down as legends. 267 00:20:22.559 --> 00:20:26.079 Our town will support you whether you win or lose, because you're the character 268 00:20:26.160 --> 00:20:30.559 that your parents have taught you. The character that comes out inside of you 269 00:20:30.880 --> 00:20:33.680 will be better than anything you will learn in your life. And I promise 270 00:20:33.720 --> 00:20:37.559 you when you look back twenty thirty forty years from now, just like my 271 00:20:37.640 --> 00:20:41.759 friends and I do in our football career, you will be excited that you 272 00:20:41.839 --> 00:20:45.880 made this decision to stay and play your hearts out and who knows where we 273 00:20:45.920 --> 00:20:49.519 go with it. Just imagine if you stay together, you guys with a 274 00:20:49.559 --> 00:20:52.880 team, You guys were the ones on the field. It's not always the 275 00:20:52.960 --> 00:20:57.880 coach. Trust me, you guys make it happen. You made it happen, 276 00:20:59.480 --> 00:21:02.440 and we go to the Big twelve and then we do great and we 277 00:21:02.519 --> 00:21:06.960 get into the playoffs. The legend you guys will be to start with by 278 00:21:07.039 --> 00:21:10.359 going ahead and saying screw you NCAA. It ain't about money to us. 279 00:21:10.640 --> 00:21:12.599 We came here, we're a family. We're gonna stay that and we're gonna 280 00:21:12.599 --> 00:21:17.799 build this. Believe me when I tell you, the force of everybody else 281 00:21:17.799 --> 00:21:21.839 will be behind you. The stadium better be full. They will cheer their 282 00:21:21.880 --> 00:21:26.079 asses off for you, and you know what we're gonna do well if you 283 00:21:26.119 --> 00:21:29.720 make that decision to stay. Obviously, if you don't, you know, 284 00:21:29.759 --> 00:21:33.160 I'm not gonna put you in a fish category. But you learn the lesson 285 00:21:33.440 --> 00:21:38.839 about life and sometimes it sucks, but they do hope that you understand that 286 00:21:38.920 --> 00:21:42.960 you're both gonna go and have a chance for the NFL. You're already superstars. 287 00:21:44.160 --> 00:21:48.279 You've got more recognition than anything. You guys can rise above this all 288 00:21:48.480 --> 00:21:52.480 we're down the road, they'll be making a documentary movie of you guys, 289 00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:57.519 because you did the right thing in the face of what's horrible greed in America 290 00:21:57.599 --> 00:22:03.119 today when it comes to college football. We lost Nick Saban because of this. 291 00:22:03.200 --> 00:22:07.720 You're gonna lose more of these old coaches that have taught kids how to 292 00:22:07.759 --> 00:22:12.640 be great kids because of what's going on. It's a terrible thing. Do 293 00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:17.759 you can do whatever you want. I will not root for Coach Fish other 294 00:22:17.799 --> 00:22:22.640 than to fail, all right, And that's not because I'm a mean person 295 00:22:22.000 --> 00:22:26.880 or anything else. He hurt my community that I came here over thirty five 296 00:22:26.960 --> 00:22:30.160 years ago, and I never went to u of A. I don't have 297 00:22:30.200 --> 00:22:33.839 any kids that went to U of A. But I support U of A 298 00:22:33.920 --> 00:22:37.359 because I'm a community person and I sought and I support many other things in 299 00:22:37.400 --> 00:22:41.880 town because I'm a community person. This is where I live, is what 300 00:22:41.960 --> 00:22:45.200 I do. So if I support you, I don't expect you to walk 301 00:22:45.240 --> 00:22:49.000 out. Hey, listen. Bottom line is if he had enough confidence in 302 00:22:49.119 --> 00:22:53.000 himself Coach Fish, which he didn't, which is a very weak spot that 303 00:22:53.079 --> 00:22:56.400 most people don't see. He think about it. Will you go eighteen different 304 00:22:56.400 --> 00:23:00.559 places? You don't have any confidence in yourself that you can go past whatever 305 00:23:00.559 --> 00:23:04.640 you accomplished at that time. Because if he had confidence in himself, he 306 00:23:04.680 --> 00:23:07.640 would be bringing people in and going, hell, yeah, baby, we're 307 00:23:07.640 --> 00:23:11.160 going to get into the playoffs next year. This town was ready to rally. 308 00:23:11.440 --> 00:23:15.519 More money was coming his way. And then when the dream job is 309 00:23:15.599 --> 00:23:21.519 real, dream job not Washington because it's cold and rainy and really bad up 310 00:23:21.519 --> 00:23:25.400 there. Okay, I don't care about the tradition. He could have taken 311 00:23:25.480 --> 00:23:27.960 that Florida job because that's going to be opening up pretty soon. We would 312 00:23:27.960 --> 00:23:32.519 have all recognized, hey, he's here four years, five years, fulfill 313 00:23:32.599 --> 00:23:34.160 the contract, wants to leave. Get it. He put it us in 314 00:23:34.200 --> 00:23:37.920 a good spot. You can blame NCAA, you can blame the rules, 315 00:23:37.960 --> 00:23:40.359 you can blame that they all suck. But at the end of the day, 316 00:23:40.759 --> 00:23:45.400 men can make decisions based on interrogaty. I remember in nineteen nineties, 317 00:23:45.400 --> 00:23:49.559 about ninety five or so ninety six, I was offered a job back in 318 00:23:49.599 --> 00:23:52.839 New York. I was here. I met a guy on the golf course 319 00:23:52.359 --> 00:23:56.599 and he brought me back and interviewed me and say, here's the deal, 320 00:23:56.680 --> 00:24:00.160 Dean, I will give you five hundred thousand dollars as a base, and 321 00:24:00.200 --> 00:24:03.799 you'll probably make a million to two million dollars over the next few years as 322 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:06.599 you grow and do this stuff. You'd be great at this. But don't 323 00:24:06.640 --> 00:24:08.200 take the job. Don't take the job. Quality of life is better than 324 00:24:08.200 --> 00:24:11.759 it is. And I didn't take the job when it came back and talked 325 00:24:11.799 --> 00:24:14.960 to my wife because you know what I wanted to do it. I had 326 00:24:15.039 --> 00:24:19.839 confidence myself to do it, something this vagabond fish did not confidence. It's 327 00:24:19.880 --> 00:24:23.839 something. You can not do anything unless it's inside you. You can't you 328 00:24:25.000 --> 00:24:26.920 earn the right to be here. All right, thanks for listening. We'll 329 00:24:26.960 --> 00:24:32.960 be back. We have a lot more on the Money Matter Show. Welcome 330 00:24:32.960 --> 00:24:34.759 back, everybody. This is Dean Greenberg and this is the Money Matter Show. 331 00:24:34.759 --> 00:24:40.200 I got Dave, I got Todd, that' SEBASTI here today. We're 332 00:24:40.240 --> 00:24:45.640 all here. We're here. This is it all time new highs baby, 333 00:24:45.759 --> 00:24:48.200 And when's the last time we said a new all time high? Two years 334 00:24:48.200 --> 00:24:52.640 ago January of twenty twenty two, right before we went in the toilet, 335 00:24:53.039 --> 00:24:56.799 right twenty two. The end of the twenty two was bad though, all 336 00:24:56.839 --> 00:25:00.480 those tech stocks in the December got whipped. Remember they want them to fifty 337 00:25:00.519 --> 00:25:03.759 down to like one hundred. Here's something you won't remember because I didn't remember. 338 00:25:03.240 --> 00:25:07.000 Uh. In January of twenty two, we set a new all time 339 00:25:07.079 --> 00:25:11.279 high forty eight eighteen on the S and P five hundred. Less than five 340 00:25:11.480 --> 00:25:17.119 weeks later, we were down fifteen percent. Fifteen percent, Okay, that's 341 00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:19.400 significant. Obviously, we're not telling people to sell everything, of course not 342 00:25:19.519 --> 00:25:22.680 okay, of course not. What I was talking about is how to mitigate 343 00:25:22.799 --> 00:25:26.799 risk. It's one of the things you have to do now if you're not 344 00:25:26.799 --> 00:25:30.000 fully invested, if you're only fifty percent, you're supposed to be sixty and 345 00:25:30.039 --> 00:25:33.240 you only fifty four percent, that's fine, keep writing it, okay, 346 00:25:33.559 --> 00:25:37.160 But if it gets up there and you want to pull back, sell some 347 00:25:37.200 --> 00:25:41.359 stuff. I think probably the main thing we're trying to impress on people, 348 00:25:41.440 --> 00:25:45.720 Dean is this is not a time to be aggressive. This is a time, 349 00:25:45.759 --> 00:25:48.319 if anything, to be conservative. Well, like I said in my 350 00:25:48.400 --> 00:25:52.279 monologue, there's always opportunities. I mean, you know, I just remember 351 00:25:52.279 --> 00:25:55.279 what was it last year? You remember Target? Nobody want to buy Target? 352 00:25:55.279 --> 00:25:57.440 It was on ten hundred and fifteen. You know, my naum Milowa. 353 00:25:57.519 --> 00:26:03.200 But now it's what one Yeah, okay, this' Boeing a few years 354 00:26:03.200 --> 00:26:07.799 ago. Low Otherwise, I mean there's always reasons they come down. Well, 355 00:26:07.839 --> 00:26:11.680 Boeing has another problem. Okay, eventually in here they could be a 356 00:26:11.680 --> 00:26:15.640 good buy opportunity. It's still high, but a good buy opportunity. But 357 00:26:15.640 --> 00:26:18.400 remember it was two seventy about a week ago. We said last week that 358 00:26:18.480 --> 00:26:22.880 we thought there'd be some buying interest under two hundred. It dropped a one 359 00:26:22.039 --> 00:26:26.519 ninety nine bang back to two thirteen. Yeah, is it over? Probably 360 00:26:26.599 --> 00:26:30.400 not, I don't think so. They have to get through the regulations and 361 00:26:30.440 --> 00:26:33.799 everything else. Even can drag on for months. Yeah, thank god, 362 00:26:33.839 --> 00:26:36.400 nobody got hurt, so there's not a lot of They're not gonna be lawsuits. 363 00:26:36.559 --> 00:26:40.880 Right. The other side of everything is Raytheon. Okay, we're not 364 00:26:40.880 --> 00:26:42.960 going to not have defense. They had some problems you know, that got 365 00:26:44.000 --> 00:26:45.759 down to low seventies. They were one hundred and ten and fifteen. Disney's 366 00:26:45.759 --> 00:26:48.720 the other one. I mean, there's always going to be an opportunity if 367 00:26:48.720 --> 00:26:51.559 you say, well, if I have cash and it keeps going, what 368 00:26:51.559 --> 00:26:56.200 am I going to do? Look at the the the the move from one 369 00:26:56.279 --> 00:27:00.359 one side to the other. I mean, the Dow's down and the equal 370 00:27:00.359 --> 00:27:03.400 way to SMP is down for the year. So we'll back to the situation 371 00:27:03.480 --> 00:27:07.319 that these other stocks just ran, the tech stocks ran to make us up, 372 00:27:07.400 --> 00:27:08.319 you know, two and a half percent. Maybe we can get up 373 00:27:08.319 --> 00:27:12.480 for a five percent at that level, switch out and move onto different type 374 00:27:12.480 --> 00:27:17.000 of stocks, find some different pain stocks, find some stocks that have been 375 00:27:17.039 --> 00:27:18.960 out of favor, because if that's what you want, or just go to 376 00:27:18.960 --> 00:27:23.640 the money marketing annoying yourself five percent to sell. We had Investment committee meeting 377 00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:29.000 last week and the thing that we came away from it was two major themes. 378 00:27:29.279 --> 00:27:33.119 One is fixed income be you're okay extending maturities okay, to buy some 379 00:27:33.160 --> 00:27:38.599 preferred stocks okay, to to buy things that require interest rates to stay flat 380 00:27:38.799 --> 00:27:44.480 or decline. And the other was to favor a value over growth. And 381 00:27:44.559 --> 00:27:47.559 I think that just those are just we want to be a little bit more 382 00:27:47.599 --> 00:27:52.160 conservative in here. With the market at an all time high similar to twenty 383 00:27:52.200 --> 00:27:55.160 twenty two, I don't think we're going to have that kind of a downside 384 00:27:55.160 --> 00:28:00.279 because I don't think we're going to be facing interest rates rising dramatic, but 385 00:28:00.319 --> 00:28:04.519 the interest rates did rise every single day this week and back to a five 386 00:28:04.559 --> 00:28:07.720 week high the ten years. We saw though with the retail sales report, 387 00:28:07.720 --> 00:28:12.119 which initially was negative on the market's part because it came in above expectations, 388 00:28:12.119 --> 00:28:15.960 but when you really look at it, saying that in December the retail consumer 389 00:28:17.079 --> 00:28:19.839 was very strong, that bows well for quarter to four earnings reports that are 390 00:28:19.880 --> 00:28:22.720 starting to get released over these next months, So the market could be looking 391 00:28:22.759 --> 00:28:26.839 at that saying, sure, that made interest rates come up a little bit, 392 00:28:26.119 --> 00:28:30.000 but that means the earnings reports are actually going to be somewhat equal what 393 00:28:30.039 --> 00:28:33.200 we're pricing in here on the markets. And that was really the concern is 394 00:28:33.599 --> 00:28:37.720 with these seven stocks being so much highly valued compared to the rest of the 395 00:28:37.759 --> 00:28:41.839 market, they have to have really good earnings. Looks like they're going to. 396 00:28:41.920 --> 00:28:45.720 When we've had a couple of semiconductors already and they've done very well. 397 00:28:45.319 --> 00:28:48.359 The big tech stocks are going to start next week. The only way we 398 00:28:48.440 --> 00:28:52.079 hit a new all time high with interest rates rising every single day is if 399 00:28:52.119 --> 00:28:56.960 you believe that interest rate increased this temporary. It's not going to hold because 400 00:28:56.960 --> 00:29:00.640 if interest rates, I think you mentioned in your model, if rates are 401 00:29:00.720 --> 00:29:03.759 going to be going up. That's not good. That's a problem for the 402 00:29:03.759 --> 00:29:06.279 market. And if the rates are going down, there's a problem already. 403 00:29:06.480 --> 00:29:08.640 If they're going there's a real problem, don't you. It feels like the 404 00:29:08.640 --> 00:29:12.759 market is becoming less and less worried about where rates are at currently. And 405 00:29:12.799 --> 00:29:17.799 as long as the economic reports continue to stay strong, what's the issue of 406 00:29:18.119 --> 00:29:21.319 the They're afraid they're gonna raise them. They're gonna switch from thinking, here's 407 00:29:21.359 --> 00:29:23.559 the thing right now, the pendulum has swung that they think, even the 408 00:29:23.559 --> 00:29:26.279 most conservative of thinking the second part of the year, they're going to lower 409 00:29:26.279 --> 00:29:30.200 them. They're out of the mind. There's no unless there is a black 410 00:29:30.200 --> 00:29:36.400 Swan event that that turns us into a very ill liquid position that they need 411 00:29:36.440 --> 00:29:37.920 to stimulate the economy. They don't. I don't see them with a lowering 412 00:29:38.039 --> 00:29:41.920 rates, and they're not gonna do it right before the election. So I 413 00:29:41.920 --> 00:29:45.359 don't know where these pundits that come on and talk and then and and people 414 00:29:45.359 --> 00:29:49.519 look at them as being experts because the CEOs of these uh major companies and 415 00:29:49.519 --> 00:29:55.400 stuff like that, I don't see how it happens. Was five rate cuts 416 00:29:55.400 --> 00:29:57.480 next year five or this year? Five rate cuts this year. If we 417 00:29:57.519 --> 00:30:00.200 have five rate cuts this year, we've got some real problems. Yeah. 418 00:30:00.599 --> 00:30:03.000 Well, I'm saying, is what if we stayed at the terminal rate of 419 00:30:03.039 --> 00:30:07.160 five point twenty five and we continue to have strong earnings reports, we continue 420 00:30:07.200 --> 00:30:10.720 to have strong economic data, the Fed doesn't need a raise or lower and 421 00:30:10.759 --> 00:30:12.440 we just stay where we are, still have an inverted I old curve. 422 00:30:14.799 --> 00:30:17.480 Nobody seemed to care. I don't think that will happen over it too. 423 00:30:17.799 --> 00:30:21.240 If we're too strong, the anticipation would always be that the Fed will raise 424 00:30:21.319 --> 00:30:23.000 rates. And the fact that they think we're gonna have cuts right now, 425 00:30:23.240 --> 00:30:26.400 think about how that pendulum is gonna swing from one side to the other. 426 00:30:26.440 --> 00:30:30.920 We have came up and made new highs because people are on the bandwagon of 427 00:30:30.039 --> 00:30:33.759 thinking that there's gonna be new, Uh, we're going to lower rates. 428 00:30:33.799 --> 00:30:37.519 Well, when that doesn't happen and they actually start thinking they're gonna raise rates, 429 00:30:37.799 --> 00:30:40.720 we would see a ten to fifteen percent move down pretty damn quickly. 430 00:30:40.880 --> 00:30:44.200 That it's helped us so far as none of these economic reports, the cpis, 431 00:30:44.240 --> 00:30:47.640 the labor reports, nothing have been too hot, right, They've been 432 00:30:47.680 --> 00:30:49.400 a little above, but it haven't been anything where the market's like, oh, 433 00:30:51.079 --> 00:30:53.480 FED might be changing its tune here. So as long as we continue 434 00:30:53.519 --> 00:30:57.599 to just get these minute economic reports, maybe the FED just doesn't do anything. 435 00:30:59.000 --> 00:31:00.319 Yeah, and you know, remember, how do you get to even 436 00:31:00.359 --> 00:31:06.559 being comfortable with this? Through you through your plan, You're finding out how 437 00:31:06.599 --> 00:31:11.400 much money do you need to allocate towards risk assets, how much money do 438 00:31:11.480 --> 00:31:14.960 you need to live on, where you're going to get your income from that's 439 00:31:14.960 --> 00:31:18.559 coming what do you have enough money coming to you? I mean, this 440 00:31:18.640 --> 00:31:21.400 all has to be set up. You just can't have a portfolio and say 441 00:31:21.599 --> 00:31:23.240 I'm just gonna live on my portfolio because it's going to go up fifteen to 442 00:31:23.279 --> 00:31:27.240 twenty percent a year or ten percent a year, because sometimes it doesn't. 443 00:31:27.319 --> 00:31:33.119 You have to have a plan, a whole financial plan beforehand by by fiduciary 444 00:31:33.160 --> 00:31:37.799 financial advisors period. Dean. We've got a couple of housekeeping things from last 445 00:31:37.799 --> 00:31:41.400 week, things that we told them we check out. One was and we 446 00:31:41.400 --> 00:31:45.559 were talking about uranium prices and the spikeing uranium prices, and one of the 447 00:31:45.599 --> 00:31:49.160 questions that we had is how do you make sulfuric acid? Which I thought 448 00:31:49.200 --> 00:31:52.039 was kind of interesting. It's the King of chemicals. Right. They call 449 00:31:52.079 --> 00:31:57.480 it that because it's highly reactive acid that can even dissolve other acids. That's 450 00:31:57.480 --> 00:32:01.160 pretty powerful. Huh. How do you make it? Produced by burning sulfur 451 00:32:01.319 --> 00:32:07.240 together with potassium nitrate in the presence of steam. And we asked a question 452 00:32:07.279 --> 00:32:12.599 what is sulfuric as Why is sulfuric acid important in uranium mining? Uranium is 453 00:32:12.680 --> 00:32:16.720 different from other origin. It requires sulfuric acid to be fed into the electric 454 00:32:17.039 --> 00:32:22.039 mining drill to mine it. It cannot be mined by hand. And what 455 00:32:22.079 --> 00:32:27.000 we were saying is that the biggest, one of the biggest producers in Kazakhstan, 456 00:32:27.079 --> 00:32:30.920 a company there, had problems sourcing sulfuric acid, which means that their 457 00:32:30.319 --> 00:32:35.200 uranium production is going to be reduced in what they were planning for in twenty 458 00:32:35.200 --> 00:32:39.799 four which led to obviously supply constraints leading to uranium price skyrocketing. We've talked 459 00:32:39.799 --> 00:32:44.599 a lot about renewable energies on the show, but the most underutilized and the 460 00:32:44.599 --> 00:32:47.359 most important one is uranium because of the power of nuclear right, And this 461 00:32:47.440 --> 00:32:50.960 is one of those. The last one is be careful what you wish for, 462 00:32:51.119 --> 00:32:54.599 right? Why is there a global shortage of sulfuric acid, which there 463 00:32:54.640 --> 00:33:00.200 is right because eighty percent of the world sulfuric acid. It is a byproduct 464 00:33:00.440 --> 00:33:07.799 of fossil fuel production. Eighty percent of the world suffering acid is a byproduct 465 00:33:07.039 --> 00:33:12.400 of fossil fuel production. So cutting back on coal, oil and natural gas 466 00:33:12.400 --> 00:33:17.319 means producing less sulfuric acid. That means what we need to we get harder 467 00:33:17.359 --> 00:33:22.680 to mine uranium, higher prices. You know, it's crazy. It's one 468 00:33:22.680 --> 00:33:28.799 of those unintended consequences, right right. I mean, it's like producing lithium 469 00:33:28.799 --> 00:33:30.559 out of the mind, Like you still are using a lot of fossil fuels 470 00:33:30.559 --> 00:33:34.680 to produce that, and so if you get rid of them, it cost 471 00:33:34.680 --> 00:33:37.839 it more costs more to produce that lithium then, which makes it eve more 472 00:33:37.920 --> 00:33:42.079 expensive. I had something crazy happened to me last week, and I found 473 00:33:42.079 --> 00:33:45.079 out today why it happened. Actually I found out last week, but it 474 00:33:45.160 --> 00:33:49.759 was confirmed today. Travelers hit a new all time high. The Dell component 475 00:33:50.279 --> 00:33:54.960 produced a strong quarterly report. Insurance premiums are soaring up fourteen percent in the 476 00:33:55.039 --> 00:34:00.039 last three months. Now, last week I got my homeownersurance bill and it 477 00:34:00.160 --> 00:34:07.279 jumped by thirty five percent. So I called Anthony's figaroa Owan's Hartline Insurance. 478 00:34:07.279 --> 00:34:10.679 Our insurance Guy Right and Anthony explained that about eighty percent of the houses in 479 00:34:10.760 --> 00:34:16.719 Tucson have flat or built up roofs. Right. Starting last year, every 480 00:34:16.719 --> 00:34:23.079 insurance company Anthony represents started raising rates on homes with flat roofs that are more 481 00:34:23.119 --> 00:34:29.440 than fifteen years old. The insurance companies have experienced substantial losses on rous's older 482 00:34:29.480 --> 00:34:34.800 than fifteen years as the plywood under the tar paper tends to rot at that 483 00:34:34.880 --> 00:34:38.400 age, creating gigantic problems. If you've got a twenty twenty five thirty year 484 00:34:38.440 --> 00:34:42.760 old roof that had the tree fall on it or something, you're going to 485 00:34:42.800 --> 00:34:45.519 be replacing the entire roof. So they've just they've essentially said, if you've 486 00:34:45.519 --> 00:34:50.039 got a built up roof that's more than twenty years old, number one, 487 00:34:50.079 --> 00:34:52.880 you're going to pay more for your homeowners insurance a number two, if you're 488 00:34:52.920 --> 00:34:58.239 new, we're really not that interested in even writing an insurance policy for you. 489 00:34:58.760 --> 00:35:02.079 So insurance company's really seem to be in control of things right now. 490 00:35:02.280 --> 00:35:07.800 With premiums up fourteen percent in the last ninety days, thirty five percent jumped 491 00:35:07.800 --> 00:35:09.960 from My Homeowners insurance over the last twelve months. If you haven't gotten your 492 00:35:09.960 --> 00:35:15.880 Homewards insurance bill recently, stand by and don't forget. Your credit score also 493 00:35:15.960 --> 00:35:19.639 affects the premium. Yeah, that's true. Most people don't realize that that's 494 00:35:19.639 --> 00:35:22.960 true. And people say, well, why would that matter, because they 495 00:35:22.000 --> 00:35:27.119 look at your credit score of seeing what your responsibility is and if you're not 496 00:35:27.559 --> 00:35:30.079 responsible in the credit you're not going to be responsible on taking care of the 497 00:35:30.119 --> 00:35:35.400 things that are going to make them. You not to ensure things. It 498 00:35:35.480 --> 00:35:38.559 is amazing how and Dean, it wasn't this way when we were younger, 499 00:35:38.559 --> 00:35:44.760 but how credit has become just all that yeah, right, in so many 500 00:35:44.800 --> 00:35:47.199 different areas, not just when you're acquiring things, not just when you're trying 501 00:35:47.199 --> 00:35:51.880 to borrow money, but like Dean said, when you get car insurance, 502 00:35:52.559 --> 00:35:54.719 Homeward's insurance. Amazing. All right, we'll be right back. We're coming 503 00:35:54.800 --> 00:35:58.920 up to the break. Thank you for listening. This is the Moneymnter Shows. 504 00:36:00.599 --> 00:36:07.599 No welcome back, everybody. This is the Money Matter Show. Dean 505 00:36:07.639 --> 00:36:14.039 Greenberg, Dave Sherwood, Todd and Sebastian. Yeah, we had a couple 506 00:36:14.000 --> 00:36:16.239 of fun plans this week that we did throughout the office, and a lot 507 00:36:16.280 --> 00:36:21.280 of the times the plans we did this week were not even ones that really 508 00:36:21.920 --> 00:36:25.559 we helped necessarily today for and what I mean by that is a lot of 509 00:36:25.599 --> 00:36:30.559 plans. For example, there's one federal employee that we were helping. He's 510 00:36:30.599 --> 00:36:35.320 retiring early, but he's not he's retiring early in a way that the four 511 00:36:35.360 --> 00:36:38.039 oh one K. He's retiring at fifty seven. So normally you would say, 512 00:36:38.239 --> 00:36:40.639 when you retire, take that four one K and turn into an IRA, 513 00:36:42.239 --> 00:36:45.239 right, But when you're before fifty nine and a half, you can't 514 00:36:45.239 --> 00:36:49.039 take out of an IRA without penalties, right, that's what the IRS says. 515 00:36:49.440 --> 00:36:52.599 But in a four oh one K or a TSP, you can take 516 00:36:52.639 --> 00:36:55.599 out before that fifty nine and a half without penalty. For what we learned, 517 00:36:55.639 --> 00:37:00.280 also for regular four one ks, Dean, this week is just for 518 00:37:00.360 --> 00:37:04.480 regular people, even if you're an officer, So it's not necessarily that you 519 00:37:04.480 --> 00:37:07.559 have a federal pension or you're with the federal government, but you're an officer 520 00:37:07.599 --> 00:37:12.320 or any public safety official can pull out of their four oh one K after 521 00:37:12.400 --> 00:37:17.079 fifty without penalty. Now they have to be a public official. I'm not 522 00:37:17.199 --> 00:37:22.920 official, sorry, a public safety person employee employee. And then on top 523 00:37:22.960 --> 00:37:28.199 of that, anyone can take out of their four one K after fifty five, 524 00:37:28.280 --> 00:37:30.400 but that is not to get confused with the IRA. It has to 525 00:37:30.440 --> 00:37:34.840 stay in the employer sponsored plan. So it's either the TSP or the four 526 00:37:34.920 --> 00:37:38.360 one K. Why I bring this all up is this particular person needed potentially 527 00:37:38.400 --> 00:37:43.400 some money out of his TSP during those years, where if I told him 528 00:37:43.400 --> 00:37:45.599 to convert it into an IRA, he wouldn't be able to do so without 529 00:37:45.679 --> 00:37:51.880 incurring a ten percent penalty from the IRS. Therefore, I was able to 530 00:37:52.039 --> 00:37:55.840 not only get around potentially a ten percent penalty, but plan for liquidity during 531 00:37:55.840 --> 00:38:00.480 those three years, and then showing how that income bridge got APPS and it's 532 00:38:00.519 --> 00:38:04.360 completed. He's has on the income he needs after those three years, but 533 00:38:04.400 --> 00:38:07.840 we're able to bridge that gap during this weird three year period. By working 534 00:38:07.840 --> 00:38:10.480 with the planner, we're actually able to show him those type of things. 535 00:38:10.679 --> 00:38:15.599 And so those are the little things where even if you worked with a normal 536 00:38:15.599 --> 00:38:19.360 money manager, he might not understand your situation of potentially needing to pull out 537 00:38:19.360 --> 00:38:22.960 of that IRA, so he might recommend that you switch into an IRA without 538 00:38:23.000 --> 00:38:28.320 ever knowing your potential liquidity needs more than anything as well. Dean was talking 539 00:38:28.360 --> 00:38:30.559 on the last segment about people a lot of times like you, use Excel 540 00:38:30.760 --> 00:38:34.360 as their own financial planners. So they'll put in a two percent, four 541 00:38:34.400 --> 00:38:37.840 percent, six percent growth rate and just put that every single year. And 542 00:38:37.880 --> 00:38:42.480 there's no market, there's no anything instrument that will return exactly the same rate 543 00:38:42.519 --> 00:38:45.440 every single year unless you have some type of CD. But even then there's 544 00:38:45.480 --> 00:38:47.159 a term associated with that. Right. So at the end of the day, 545 00:38:47.320 --> 00:38:51.840 especially if you're in the market, sequence of returns matter more than anything. 546 00:38:52.239 --> 00:38:54.679 So how you're pulling out during down years, and how you're pulling out 547 00:38:54.679 --> 00:38:57.960 in up years, and how that lasts over the course of the plan, 548 00:38:58.280 --> 00:39:00.920 that's what truly matters. A plan that shows you six percent every year, 549 00:39:01.079 --> 00:39:05.960 that's an unrealistic plan. You know, it's interesting you say that, because 550 00:39:06.079 --> 00:39:08.800 you know, I gotta I gotta give you guys a few kudos, you 551 00:39:08.880 --> 00:39:13.679 and Dylan and stuff, because you know, people, obviously, our system 552 00:39:13.800 --> 00:39:17.960 is we work as a team financial plan, put the program together, manage 553 00:39:19.000 --> 00:39:22.559 the money. We all work together. Okay, But I've had a bunch 554 00:39:22.559 --> 00:39:27.719 of prospects that were thinking about doing business and then signing and coming in and 555 00:39:27.719 --> 00:39:29.960 I always like to talk. Don't what made you do this and do that? 556 00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:32.119 Why do you like us? Where do you see us? Radio? 557 00:39:32.159 --> 00:39:37.639 TV? Referrals and stuff? But the financial plan is what they said that 558 00:39:37.719 --> 00:39:44.480 they sat down with you guys, and what impressed them is they had another 559 00:39:44.519 --> 00:39:46.840 financial plan. They went to another person financial plan, and all they wanted 560 00:39:46.880 --> 00:39:51.119 to do was sell them product. And they love the fact that we don't 561 00:39:51.159 --> 00:39:54.960 sell them product. Okay, and they they and most of the products are 562 00:39:54.960 --> 00:40:00.159 annuities. We all know because we've been in this business, especially Dave and 563 00:40:00.199 --> 00:40:04.280 I, that most people will try to use these things to sell a nudies 564 00:40:04.320 --> 00:40:07.639 because they get their beautiful seven percent up front. You know, you sell 565 00:40:07.679 --> 00:40:08.719 a million, now you get seventy that you do ten million, you make 566 00:40:08.719 --> 00:40:13.559 seven hundred thousand dollars a year. Okay, that's not what we do. 567 00:40:13.760 --> 00:40:19.320 That's not what we want to do. In fact, that basically doesn't ever 568 00:40:19.360 --> 00:40:22.639 fit in with our theory. Even if when we do annuities it's on a 569 00:40:23.039 --> 00:40:27.000 trail basis. We want to be able to be involved and build a business, 570 00:40:27.079 --> 00:40:30.280 build a relationship. So that's one good thing. The second thing they 571 00:40:30.320 --> 00:40:32.840 said, they said to me, a lot of people say, this is 572 00:40:32.880 --> 00:40:39.039 that you guys, you and Dylan sit and answer the questions until they're comfortable 573 00:40:39.719 --> 00:40:44.360 they go. So many people don't want to answer the questions and be direct 574 00:40:44.400 --> 00:40:46.639 and be open and be able to do it. And then the other thing 575 00:40:46.719 --> 00:40:53.159 is and it is that you talk to them not from a twenty or thirty 576 00:40:53.199 --> 00:40:59.199 or forty year old mindset, but from a sixty year old mindset seventy so 577 00:40:59.639 --> 00:41:04.440 you thinking about what their needs are, not what you would do when you're 578 00:41:04.480 --> 00:41:07.039 younger. And they said, I've heard you talk about that that you you 579 00:41:07.159 --> 00:41:09.639 kind of meant to them and teach him that. And they said, I 580 00:41:09.679 --> 00:41:13.960 just want you to know that comes across that way. And I think that's 581 00:41:13.960 --> 00:41:19.039 great because most financial plan is in there for one reason, not to be 582 00:41:19.079 --> 00:41:23.760 financial advisors, but to be salesmen afterwards. The financial advisor tool is what 583 00:41:23.800 --> 00:41:28.599 we've always done, but now we back it up with a financial planning tool 584 00:41:29.079 --> 00:41:31.119 that makes us, you know, I think, pretty damn good. And 585 00:41:31.159 --> 00:41:34.880 what we do. We had one client that came in this week that had 586 00:41:34.880 --> 00:41:42.519 a very complex plan because they had annuity sold to them that they weren't designed 587 00:41:42.559 --> 00:41:45.800 correctly, that weren't really what they needed and it was bought in a high 588 00:41:46.079 --> 00:41:50.559 low interest rate environment. Excuse me, and for like I've said many times 589 00:41:50.559 --> 00:41:52.800 in the show, buying annuities when interstratees are super low means you don't get 590 00:41:52.840 --> 00:41:57.400 a lot for them. So this annuity that they had barely grew it. 591 00:41:57.400 --> 00:42:00.360 It was something that really was just locking the money up. It was a 592 00:42:00.400 --> 00:42:05.199 problem. So me and Dylan and I were able to construct a plan where 593 00:42:05.239 --> 00:42:08.760 over a course of five years we were able to drain those assets using penalty 594 00:42:08.760 --> 00:42:13.880 free withdrawals, bridging income gaps with other accounts, with investment accounts, social 595 00:42:13.960 --> 00:42:17.360 security, turning social Security on at different ages, then turning on new annuities 596 00:42:17.400 --> 00:42:21.840 once that gets out of surrender. There's so many complex things with just this 597 00:42:21.880 --> 00:42:24.800 one plan that we were actually able to all lay out in a timeline, 598 00:42:25.039 --> 00:42:29.840 show them action steps, when things happen, when things change, what the 599 00:42:29.840 --> 00:42:32.559 income buckets look like in each phase of retirement. That's that type of peace 600 00:42:32.559 --> 00:42:36.000 of mind that you're just not going to be able to give to yourself because 601 00:42:36.039 --> 00:42:38.320 one you're not gonna be able to find the products, and two it's likely 602 00:42:38.360 --> 00:42:42.559 you don't have the expertise in all areas to I really know the plan three. 603 00:42:42.679 --> 00:42:45.280 You probably don't have the software to begin with to construct a financial plan 604 00:42:45.320 --> 00:42:49.920 of this nature, so we are able to do all this for you completely 605 00:42:49.920 --> 00:42:52.239 free of charge. There's many people throughout this week where we didn't do any 606 00:42:52.280 --> 00:42:55.079 business with and all we did was help. I mean, there's one client 607 00:42:55.599 --> 00:42:59.840 came in. We're going to have a seven year relationship until they retire, 608 00:43:00.199 --> 00:43:04.199 until eventually then when they retire, we'll convert into an IRA and then we'll 609 00:43:04.239 --> 00:43:07.360 help them from there. But there's nothing that we'll get for this seven years 610 00:43:07.400 --> 00:43:09.559 other than making sure that we help the relationship. They do what they need 611 00:43:09.599 --> 00:43:14.039 to do over the seven years, and then that's how we build relationships. 612 00:43:14.039 --> 00:43:16.519 It's not about what we get today. It's about how we can service you 613 00:43:16.559 --> 00:43:21.880 today and how can we continue to service you throughout the future years. Relationships 614 00:43:21.880 --> 00:43:24.000 that's important, that's all about. That's why I want to bring this one 615 00:43:24.000 --> 00:43:28.840 thing up. Okay, I've been on the radio almost thirty four years. 616 00:43:29.239 --> 00:43:31.199 I've heard people say, I don't like what you say, I don't agree 617 00:43:31.199 --> 00:43:34.559 with you, I agree with you all that stuff, and that's great. 618 00:43:35.159 --> 00:43:37.360 I don't like you for this, I don't like you for that, but 619 00:43:37.679 --> 00:43:42.440 I like you for this this past week. After thirty four years, I 620 00:43:42.440 --> 00:43:45.480 don't think I've ever been trying. Someone's tried to insult me to the core. 621 00:43:46.239 --> 00:43:51.320 Okay, And I'm gonna read this to you because it really bothers me 622 00:43:51.880 --> 00:43:54.719 that in today's world, when everybody's supposed to do stuff and be nice, 623 00:43:55.039 --> 00:44:00.719 here's a guy we'll just call them Paul. Okay, and he writes this 624 00:44:00.800 --> 00:44:05.639 to me. Okay, And obviously we are who we are. We try 625 00:44:05.679 --> 00:44:09.920 to do it the best we can. He says, take speech lessons. 626 00:44:12.039 --> 00:44:15.280 I agree with what you say, but you sound like a three year old 627 00:44:15.719 --> 00:44:22.880 since you cannot pronounce an R sound. I'm sorry, I'm from New York. 628 00:44:22.920 --> 00:44:29.800 We don't say ours. Okay, Paul, you use a w like 629 00:44:29.840 --> 00:44:34.960 a little baby, like a speech like a little baby. Fix your speech, 630 00:44:35.480 --> 00:44:39.400 Dean Greenberg. Let me tell you something, Paul. You know you 631 00:44:39.440 --> 00:44:45.599 didn't just insult me. You insulted the entire New York population. Okay. 632 00:44:46.320 --> 00:44:51.360 And I know from your email and stuffs you're an educator. And I can't 633 00:44:51.360 --> 00:44:55.280 believe an educator that's not maybe woke because you listen to a conservative station who 634 00:44:55.519 --> 00:45:00.039 likes what I say and agrees to what I'm saying wants to make fun of 635 00:45:00.039 --> 00:45:05.199 me, wants to make fun of me. Well, let me tell you, 636 00:45:05.239 --> 00:45:08.119 Paul, you make fun of me all I want. I like my 637 00:45:08.239 --> 00:45:15.039 accent, okay, and it's not that I can do anything about it. 638 00:45:15.119 --> 00:45:20.320 I'm not going to speech lessons, okay, to please you. I am 639 00:45:20.440 --> 00:45:23.480 who I am. I don't have great diction and I don't have great English. 640 00:45:23.559 --> 00:45:28.239 I get that. My wife, who is my girlfriend, who told 641 00:45:28.239 --> 00:45:31.000 me to go do the radio show starting in nineteen ninety, told me that 642 00:45:31.199 --> 00:45:35.559 thirty four years ago. You knew this, Okay, she told me I 643 00:45:35.639 --> 00:45:38.119 don't have good diiction, and in fact my English is worse. But what 644 00:45:38.159 --> 00:45:44.400 she also said is I have something that most people wouldn't have, and she 645 00:45:44.599 --> 00:45:49.480 said that they would pay millions of dollars for that. You come across as 646 00:45:49.519 --> 00:45:57.639 an honest, straightforward person. Well, Paul, here's my honesty. Start 647 00:45:57.840 --> 00:46:01.679 understanding. There's different people out there and not you just wonderful professors of whatever 648 00:46:01.760 --> 00:46:06.239 school you're at. Okay, And I know what school you're at or what 649 00:46:06.840 --> 00:46:08.519 all right, we know where it is. But I will offer you this, 650 00:46:08.760 --> 00:46:15.119 Paul, Come visit me in my office, shake my hand, get 651 00:46:15.159 --> 00:46:17.960 to know me other than that I cannot pronounce ours, that I'm not a 652 00:46:17.960 --> 00:46:23.960 three year old baby that doesn't contribute to the people's lives, not only financially 653 00:46:24.960 --> 00:46:30.119 in the financial business, but way outside what I do with kids, how 654 00:46:30.159 --> 00:46:35.599 I handle myself and everything else. I guarantee you you're the one that can't 655 00:46:35.639 --> 00:46:37.480 stand up and come do that, because I promise you if you did, 656 00:46:37.679 --> 00:46:40.960 you would find a totally different person than that three year old baby. You 657 00:46:42.000 --> 00:46:46.159 think it's sitting behind a microphone because I can't say my os. Okay, 658 00:46:46.760 --> 00:46:52.400 So, Paul, educator, who lets what I say? Listen to what 659 00:46:52.480 --> 00:46:57.159 I say, because trust me, that's a lot more important than how I 660 00:46:57.239 --> 00:47:00.360 say it, because at the end of the day, that's how you gonna 661 00:47:00.360 --> 00:47:05.599 make money. Four years Well said Buddy, Well said, well said, 662 00:47:05.760 --> 00:47:07.440 And you can't say you're ours. We don't care. And I'll defend every 663 00:47:07.480 --> 00:47:10.639 New Yorker that has the same accent. Don't worry about it, Paul. 664 00:47:12.800 --> 00:47:15.920 It's not like this is something new, right. I guess maybe Paul's never 665 00:47:15.960 --> 00:47:20.280 known in New Yorker. I don't know why it's the way it is. 666 00:47:20.320 --> 00:47:23.119 I don't know why I still have it, Okay, but I will say 667 00:47:23.159 --> 00:47:28.280 this, I've been told over the many years. When you're not around like 668 00:47:28.440 --> 00:47:30.159 women here in my accent, that New York accent, I go, I'm 669 00:47:30.199 --> 00:47:34.280 sorry, No, I like it. It's sexy, so I guess I'm 670 00:47:34.320 --> 00:47:37.800 gonna stay with it. A friend from Australia who's lived here fifty years still 671 00:47:37.840 --> 00:47:40.159 has the Australian. There's nothing wrong with accents. It's not who you are, 672 00:47:40.199 --> 00:47:43.400 it's what you say. If you like what you say, don't cut 673 00:47:43.480 --> 00:47:45.280 them off, don't call him a baby. We'll be back. It's the 674 00:47:45.280 --> 00:47:58.440 money matter, shechelle, thanks for listening. Say it's only a welcome back, 675 00:47:58.519 --> 00:48:00.559 everybody. It is the second with the moneymatter shell. The first one 676 00:48:00.559 --> 00:48:04.920 went fast and it was hot. It was good. But we get excited. 677 00:48:04.960 --> 00:48:06.960 There's a few things out there that make me pumped up, you know. 678 00:48:07.079 --> 00:48:08.360 Well, you know, it's easy to get pumped up on that email. 679 00:48:08.440 --> 00:48:12.280 But also we had new all time highs, which I hope gets you 680 00:48:12.320 --> 00:48:15.239 a little more pumped up than normal. Of course, I love all time 681 00:48:15.239 --> 00:48:16.960 new highs. Yeah, but they also get nervous and scanned and cautious. 682 00:48:17.400 --> 00:48:22.320 Absolutely, of course. But we actually talked about it last week. Dave 683 00:48:22.559 --> 00:48:25.199 hitting new all times highs is normally a good thing. But let's round out 684 00:48:25.199 --> 00:48:30.039 the week and what we had on action Dalla was up point seven percent, 685 00:48:30.159 --> 00:48:31.800 the SMP was up one point two. The Nasdaq led the way at two 686 00:48:31.840 --> 00:48:36.039 point three higher. Russell two thousand actually down on the week point four, 687 00:48:36.400 --> 00:48:39.880 and the equal weight is slightly down point one year to date. What we're 688 00:48:39.880 --> 00:48:43.960 seeing is kind of reversal. Right, so we're three weeks in. The 689 00:48:44.000 --> 00:48:47.239 first week was dominated by the equal weight to SMP. Now the equal weighted 690 00:48:47.320 --> 00:48:51.159 S and p's down on the year and the S and P five hundreds up 691 00:48:51.159 --> 00:48:53.840 on the year. It's a second consecutive week that looked like twenty three. 692 00:48:54.119 --> 00:48:59.719 EXAC looked like twenty twenty three, with the tech running away AI everywhere, 693 00:49:00.119 --> 00:49:06.199 all this Mark Zuckerberg talking about how many AI chips Meta is buying and just 694 00:49:06.320 --> 00:49:12.039 propelling Nvidia close to six hundred dollars a share, a md AMU all time 695 00:49:12.119 --> 00:49:16.320 highs yep, yep, both of them. We had WelCom strong up Microcorp. 696 00:49:16.639 --> 00:49:20.599 I didn't even know about them. They were thirty six percent on Friday. 697 00:49:20.719 --> 00:49:25.159 Oh wow, yeah, I mean the van Ek semi conductor ETF was 698 00:49:25.239 --> 00:49:29.960 up something like three point five percent on the week, which is really that's 699 00:49:29.960 --> 00:49:32.760 a that's a big move for an ETF huge you know. Yeah, the 700 00:49:32.760 --> 00:49:37.920 semi conductor sector was just hot. Yeah, Microsoft, Alphabet, Google, 701 00:49:38.159 --> 00:49:42.719 l So we talked about last week, Amazon and Netflix all hit either fifty 702 00:49:42.760 --> 00:49:47.440 two week highs or all time highs. Bitcoin continued to drift south, down 703 00:49:47.519 --> 00:49:53.360 another five percent this past week, down nine percent since those ETFs were approved, 704 00:49:53.639 --> 00:49:58.360 which we thought would be a catalyst for buying, right, Well, 705 00:49:58.440 --> 00:50:01.440 I mean not necessarily. Well, I think that's what everyone's piling in, 706 00:50:01.559 --> 00:50:06.639 thinking that once the ETFs were approved, the ETF companies are going to have 707 00:50:06.679 --> 00:50:09.320 to go out there and just buy a load of bitcoin to support those ETFs 708 00:50:09.320 --> 00:50:13.159 and the way it was going to go back to. She could also make 709 00:50:13.199 --> 00:50:19.480 the case that the day before it actually came on trading, it kind of 710 00:50:19.559 --> 00:50:22.679 did spike there, so maybe that's where they bought it. At some point, 711 00:50:22.679 --> 00:50:24.000 they had to buy the bitcoin, right, you would think, so 712 00:50:24.079 --> 00:50:29.280 it had to happen for the sell Yeah, you would think. I don't 713 00:50:29.280 --> 00:50:31.480 know how these big companies do that in quantity. I don't know if they 714 00:50:31.559 --> 00:50:35.920 shorted ahead of time and then it's put to them, I don't know, 715 00:50:36.280 --> 00:50:40.360 but they've got a way of doing that that that's not disruptive to the market, 716 00:50:42.000 --> 00:50:44.679 and they do it in size. Oil was up a dollar on the 717 00:50:44.719 --> 00:50:50.320 week to seventy three eighty gold down sixteen dollars. Again, rising interest rates 718 00:50:50.719 --> 00:50:53.599 good for the dollar, bad for gold. Gold moves inversely to the dollar, 719 00:50:53.719 --> 00:50:58.519 So inflation hedge not so much. I've been tracking oil a lot, 720 00:50:58.559 --> 00:51:01.679 and it's in this little like suppression triangle right now. I think there's a 721 00:51:01.679 --> 00:51:05.559 big move coming in the next couple of weeks. I think a big move 722 00:51:05.679 --> 00:51:08.639 south. I just either way, I'm not saying we're down. You know. 723 00:51:08.679 --> 00:51:12.079 That's we're in the business of trying to predict the future, and every 724 00:51:12.119 --> 00:51:15.280 now and then we get it right. I'm just predicting volatility. I would 725 00:51:15.320 --> 00:51:17.039 think that's good. Next week, a couple of things on the calendar for 726 00:51:17.119 --> 00:51:22.199 next week. Thursday, we get Q four GDP, the first look at 727 00:51:22.199 --> 00:51:24.960 the fourth quarter GDP. One could argue, hey, that's hindsight, who 728 00:51:25.000 --> 00:51:30.199 cares, right and I get that. I get that. And then of 729 00:51:30.199 --> 00:51:32.679 course Friday, the all important PCE. Well, we've had a couple of 730 00:51:32.719 --> 00:51:37.320 quarter three GDPs that made the market moves south. Yeah, they can, 731 00:51:37.519 --> 00:51:39.760 so they definitely can if it's too hot. Absolutely, absolutely, And the 732 00:51:39.840 --> 00:51:45.239 PC on Friday's got me a little nervous with the tick up we've been seeing 733 00:51:45.239 --> 00:51:50.519 in inflation. It's a personal consumption index that the FED supposedly the Fed's favorite 734 00:51:50.639 --> 00:51:53.840 indicator, and if that ticks up big, then we're going to see rates 735 00:51:53.880 --> 00:51:57.559 continue to rise, which they did all week this week. I mean, 736 00:51:57.599 --> 00:52:00.519 it doesn't seem like it's likely that it doesn't. I mean, it seems 737 00:52:00.519 --> 00:52:04.880 like it has to increase. Retail sells good thinks above expectations, the labor 738 00:52:05.079 --> 00:52:08.320 market stays hot. I mean, the housing has increased. We saw in 739 00:52:08.400 --> 00:52:13.599 December. Yeah, oil doesn't really do anything, so I mean, how 740 00:52:13.639 --> 00:52:16.400 it doesn't increase, it'd be pretty surprising. One of the cool things about 741 00:52:16.599 --> 00:52:23.000 continuing to do this at my advanced age is I learned things every week. 742 00:52:23.360 --> 00:52:28.360 You would think after fifty years of doing this I would know everything, but 743 00:52:28.480 --> 00:52:32.159 I don't. Every It seems like every week I come across something different, 744 00:52:32.800 --> 00:52:38.639 there's a different challenge. Last week I learned about something called a donor advised 745 00:52:39.079 --> 00:52:43.880 fund. Have you heard of this term either, you guys? I had 746 00:52:43.960 --> 00:52:45.719 not heard it in nonprofits. I had never heard of it. If you 747 00:52:45.800 --> 00:52:52.679 sell something that generates a large capital gain, and you're a charitably inclined individual, 748 00:52:52.519 --> 00:52:59.079 you can place a portion of those funds into a donor advised fund. 749 00:53:00.039 --> 00:53:05.920 You control. The fund must over time be donated to charity, but you'll 750 00:53:05.960 --> 00:53:09.719 not pay any capital games on those funds, and you control the funds and 751 00:53:09.719 --> 00:53:15.079 what the charity receives, what charity receives them. And when a donor advised 752 00:53:15.159 --> 00:53:22.239 fund a way to gift some capital gains to a charity, similar to a 753 00:53:22.320 --> 00:53:25.360 qualified charitable donation from an IRA where you avoid tax on. I do have 754 00:53:25.559 --> 00:53:30.159 an interesting story about Okay advice funds because I am on the board of a 755 00:53:30.239 --> 00:53:37.199 nonprofit here locally. I'll leave the name out just for to protect protective I 756 00:53:37.239 --> 00:53:38.480 don't know. So this is like, this is what happened, right. 757 00:53:38.519 --> 00:53:44.639 One of the donors that wanted to donate to this place, they wanted to 758 00:53:44.960 --> 00:53:47.599 give the donor advised funds. So same thing you've heard of it. I 759 00:53:47.639 --> 00:53:51.760 had never heard of it, but it was interesting. As you said, 760 00:53:51.960 --> 00:53:58.079 the donor still controls the funds. So the place we accepted the donation. 761 00:53:58.719 --> 00:54:01.599 Hindsight, it was a bad move on our part who had ended up happening 762 00:54:01.679 --> 00:54:07.159 is he owned the account was in Russian securities. Oh so when the whole 763 00:54:07.320 --> 00:54:12.440 Russia Ukraine thing happened, what happened? You can't trade Russian securities, right, 764 00:54:12.880 --> 00:54:15.039 so they're basically zeros. Right, well he dumped him on you. 765 00:54:15.719 --> 00:54:22.199 Well it was before Russian Ukraine ever happened. So yeah, yeah, so 766 00:54:22.320 --> 00:54:24.840 right now we you know, we have something on our ballacy where it's not 767 00:54:24.920 --> 00:54:30.679 it doesn't show up, you know, obviously it's not tradable, but yeah, 768 00:54:30.800 --> 00:54:34.400 it's it's not something the non profit can control. You know, there's 769 00:54:34.480 --> 00:54:38.079 nothing we can do about it. It's donor advise. Is it up at 770 00:54:38.400 --> 00:54:42.199 what points? Well? Absolutely, okay, absolutely, and of course if 771 00:54:42.280 --> 00:54:45.440 you die then it has to go to charity. But these people had sold 772 00:54:45.519 --> 00:54:51.400 a second home and had had a substantial capital gain on it, which there 773 00:54:51.400 --> 00:54:54.360 had no exclusion because it was not a primary residence. So they were looking 774 00:54:54.360 --> 00:55:00.079 at a fairly significant tax bill. They are well to do people who are 775 00:55:00.159 --> 00:55:02.480 charitably inclined, and they said, let's just put I think they put a 776 00:55:02.519 --> 00:55:09.199 quarter million dollars into this donor advised fund and every year they give to charity, 777 00:55:09.599 --> 00:55:14.239 you know, fifty thousand whatever they control who it goes to They control 778 00:55:14.239 --> 00:55:17.760 when it goes there, they control the assets in the donor advised fund. 779 00:55:19.519 --> 00:55:22.280 I guess why would I do this instead of the QCD that you were talking 780 00:55:22.280 --> 00:55:25.320 about earlier. QCD has to come from an IRA. Gotcha, April gains. 781 00:55:25.400 --> 00:55:29.679 This is outside of an ir So like another thing that we learned about 782 00:55:29.800 --> 00:55:34.519 was those charitable remainder trusts for iras, And if you are charitably inclined, 783 00:55:34.559 --> 00:55:39.079 you could set that up as something where it will pay to the charity, 784 00:55:39.119 --> 00:55:44.559 probably around ten percent of whatever the principle is, but you can still give 785 00:55:44.559 --> 00:55:46.559 it to your errors and even increase the amount of time that they would have 786 00:55:46.599 --> 00:55:50.159 to take distributions out of. Instead of ten years, you can make it 787 00:55:50.199 --> 00:55:54.639 twenty for example. And as as making it longer, the principle obviously grows 788 00:55:54.719 --> 00:55:58.599 longer, sure, making it kind of a wash at the end of the 789 00:55:58.679 --> 00:56:00.599 day. So there are a lot of things that we continuously learn about. 790 00:56:00.599 --> 00:56:05.840 But the one thing that makes us unique more than any other managing manager money 791 00:56:05.840 --> 00:56:08.920 manager is that we're not just money managers because we have resources all around to 792 00:56:09.039 --> 00:56:13.559 us. I mean, we had an individual come in yesterday where he first 793 00:56:13.639 --> 00:56:16.000 met with me. We looked at his accounts. Then we did his financial 794 00:56:16.039 --> 00:56:21.360 plan. Then we went over to John, talked about his business accounting, 795 00:56:21.400 --> 00:56:23.519 cleaning up his books, cleaning up his old tax returns, then talking about 796 00:56:23.519 --> 00:56:28.960 his estate planning. Then going across the door to Dave Hand talking about how 797 00:56:29.000 --> 00:56:31.679 he wants to get up property. So we're talking to him about loans and 798 00:56:31.880 --> 00:56:37.719 what's the best program for him in his situation. I mean, we really 799 00:56:37.800 --> 00:56:40.079 are that one stop shop. And he left the door and says, well, 800 00:56:40.119 --> 00:56:44.519 what a productive day. I mean, we got everything done in two 801 00:56:44.559 --> 00:56:49.280 hours. We are financial services mall. I mean every day was right here. 802 00:56:49.360 --> 00:56:52.440 It was amazing. Absolutely. Do you want a fun fact? What 803 00:56:52.639 --> 00:56:54.000 is it? Haven't had a fun fact for a while. You know, 804 00:56:54.039 --> 00:56:59.480 we refer to coins as cents, you know, ten cents, twenty five 805 00:56:59.559 --> 00:57:04.400 cents, fifty cents. Where is this? Where does the word cent centurion? 806 00:57:05.199 --> 00:57:07.719 What is this sent? What do you think action? Because centurion's one 807 00:57:07.800 --> 00:57:12.000 hundred and a cent is one one hundred? What do you think to be? 808 00:57:12.159 --> 00:57:15.119 I think Todd's guest is pretty good, pretty close. It's actually a 809 00:57:15.159 --> 00:57:22.679 short for percent of a dollar. Wow. Cent is actually abbreviation for percent. 810 00:57:22.679 --> 00:57:25.119 It's a good fun fact. It's kind of a fun fact. Yeah, 811 00:57:25.159 --> 00:57:29.440 so twenty five cents is twenty five I got another fus act. But 812 00:57:29.480 --> 00:57:34.079 it's only a fun fact for one year. What is this the year? 813 00:57:34.440 --> 00:57:37.360 Yeah, this is the well, that's fun. This is the maximum Social 814 00:57:37.400 --> 00:57:40.000 Security benefit you can receive at seventy in twenty twenty four, because I guess 815 00:57:40.079 --> 00:57:44.360 what it will change next year. Yes, that's how it works. But 816 00:57:45.000 --> 00:57:49.320 this year, at age seventy, the most you can receive if you retired 817 00:57:49.320 --> 00:57:53.400 in twenty twenty four is four thy eight hundred and seventy three dollars per month 818 00:57:53.920 --> 00:57:57.840 at age seventy. Yes, if you waited until seventy and you're in this 819 00:57:57.920 --> 00:58:00.280 year, so you got all the cola's, you got all that, and 820 00:58:00.480 --> 00:58:04.000 that's the max. No one in this country will earn more than that. 821 00:58:04.119 --> 00:58:07.320 Yeah, because the max is the maxx men, if you paid in the 822 00:58:07.360 --> 00:58:10.599 max each year, doesn't matter whether you're anyways. We have many times question 823 00:58:10.679 --> 00:58:14.039 comes up in this office. What's the maxim score? You know, what's 824 00:58:14.039 --> 00:58:15.920 the maxim? That is the maximum that is here is what it is, 825 00:58:15.960 --> 00:58:20.639 forty hundred. A lot of news, a lot of news in the in 826 00:58:20.679 --> 00:58:23.679 the media this week about electric vehicles. So let me take a trip to 827 00:58:23.679 --> 00:58:27.559 the EV garage, and then I've got a couple of comments if if it's 828 00:58:27.559 --> 00:58:30.440 okay with you, guys. Saw an article a few days ago suggesting it 829 00:58:30.480 --> 00:58:35.840 would be a real problem for an electric vehicle that's stuck in traffic, whether 830 00:58:35.880 --> 00:58:38.440 it be stuck in traffic because it's evacuating ahead of a storm or dealing with 831 00:58:38.480 --> 00:58:44.519 an accident. Remember, EV's have an advantage in it. If they're not 832 00:58:44.679 --> 00:58:50.360 moving, they're not using the battery. Where an internal combustion engine is continually 833 00:58:50.760 --> 00:58:53.400 draining your tank unless you turn it out joining any power whatsoever. Yeah, 834 00:58:53.559 --> 00:58:57.480 no, you're not using any power whatsoever. Radio if you have the radio 835 00:58:57.519 --> 00:59:00.400 on a little bit right, but you could, you could probably there. 836 00:59:00.599 --> 00:59:04.000 I had a guy tell me that he used to sit outside of the hospital 837 00:59:04.079 --> 00:59:05.800 way for his wife to get off work, and he said, I might 838 00:59:05.880 --> 00:59:08.320 use two percent of my battery in a half an hour just sitting there waiting 839 00:59:08.360 --> 00:59:14.199 for us. So most EV owners charge it home, so most days begin 840 00:59:14.440 --> 00:59:19.639 for an EV owner with a full charge, unlike gasoline powered cars that don't 841 00:59:19.679 --> 00:59:22.119 generally start off the day with a full tank. Yes, the range of 842 00:59:22.159 --> 00:59:28.039 gasoline powered cars is much longer, but other than that I would argue that 843 00:59:28.119 --> 00:59:31.480 evs are pretty well equipped for delays. We saw a lot of news. 844 00:59:31.559 --> 00:59:35.880 That's my EV garage. Now this is commentary about what we saw this week 845 00:59:36.239 --> 00:59:39.440 Chicago, right, lots of stories all week about the extremely cold temperatures in 846 00:59:39.559 --> 00:59:45.079 Chicago causing problems with batteries and charging stations. Everybody loves it. Not everybody. 847 00:59:45.239 --> 00:59:47.679 A lot of people love it when EV's have problems, you know, 848 00:59:47.960 --> 00:59:53.000 Ah, yeah, I knew at this. We know extreme weather impacts batteries, 849 00:59:53.039 --> 00:59:58.000 as the batteries being used not only to power the car during extreme weather, 850 00:59:58.039 --> 01:00:00.079 but also to keep the battery cool in the summer time and warm in 851 01:00:00.119 --> 01:00:05.519 the winter. If it doesn't have to expend power doing that keeping the battery 852 01:00:05.519 --> 01:00:08.280 cool or warm, it can go a lot further. I've said for the 853 01:00:08.280 --> 01:00:12.800 past several months you do not want to own an EV without a home charger, 854 01:00:13.280 --> 01:00:16.840 and events in Chicago last week confirmed that. Thinking if you're charging at 855 01:00:16.880 --> 01:00:22.119 home, like most EV owners, that whole news media debacle last week in 856 01:00:22.199 --> 01:00:27.719 Chicago was irrelevant. Now with that said, I saw a Twitter post last 857 01:00:27.800 --> 01:00:34.039 night that said this, I drove my Tesla to O'Hare Tuesday morning in minus 858 01:00:34.079 --> 01:00:38.239 eighteen degree weather. I charged it in the garage before I left. I 859 01:00:38.320 --> 01:00:43.239 was gone for forty eight hours and the car sat in sub zero temperatures. 860 01:00:43.840 --> 01:00:46.239 On return, I got in the car and I drove home. The guy 861 01:00:46.239 --> 01:00:52.639 who posted it said, I know, pretty boring story. That's the typical 862 01:00:52.880 --> 01:00:55.719 ev experience, and that's never going to be reported because that's not anywhere near 863 01:00:55.719 --> 01:01:00.480 as much fun as EV's freezing up at the station trying to charge and the 864 01:01:00.480 --> 01:01:06.079 station's star frozen anyway. So you know, do you know why range does 865 01:01:06.119 --> 01:01:08.679 decrease for evs in cold temperature? Yes, I just told you. No, 866 01:01:08.760 --> 01:01:12.480 there's an actual reason. Yeah, it was because the battery is expanding 867 01:01:12.480 --> 01:01:16.360 power trying to keep it warm. No, I found something different, actually, 868 01:01:16.440 --> 01:01:20.800 So I saw that EV's can lose forty one percent of its range and 869 01:01:21.119 --> 01:01:24.039 heat heat hot, extreme hot or cold temperatures. Right, But what it 870 01:01:24.119 --> 01:01:29.400 said is the chemical reaction in the battery. So you know, it's basically 871 01:01:29.440 --> 01:01:35.239 just atoms going around making chemical reactions that those chemicals slow down because of the 872 01:01:35.239 --> 01:01:38.599 coldness, so it has to extract more energy. It has to use more 873 01:01:38.719 --> 01:01:43.760 energy to create the fast enough reaction to create the energy, because that's how 874 01:01:43.760 --> 01:01:47.039 the battery creates its energy, actually expanding energy, keeping it warm so they 875 01:01:47.079 --> 01:01:52.880 will move around. That's the chemical reaction itself slows down. That's why it 876 01:01:52.920 --> 01:01:57.159 needs to warm back up. We know that it's that extreme weather, cold 877 01:01:57.159 --> 01:02:00.920 and hot is a problem. It's a fun factor people who don't know how 878 01:02:00.000 --> 01:02:05.800 evs produce energy in the first place. The actual battery itself is a chemical 879 01:02:05.840 --> 01:02:09.960 reactor, yes, and not itself produces the energy that's fed to the car. 880 01:02:10.079 --> 01:02:16.000 So obviously even hot or really cool temperatures messes the chemical reaction to a 881 01:02:16.000 --> 01:02:21.039 certain extent. Absolutely. You know, the most important stock on the market 882 01:02:21.119 --> 01:02:23.920 is Apple, the largest company in the world most days. Once in a 883 01:02:23.960 --> 01:02:28.559 while, Microsoft is, but for the most part Apple is. The stock 884 01:02:28.719 --> 01:02:32.079 was lower on Tuesday after they announced a rare discount on products in China. 885 01:02:32.199 --> 01:02:36.880 Turns out the discounts only for three days ahead of the Chinese New Year, 886 01:02:37.199 --> 01:02:40.039 But it's something that they have never done in the past, and it's because 887 01:02:40.079 --> 01:02:45.519 of increasing competition. Also, they were once again barred from selling watches with 888 01:02:45.639 --> 01:02:52.320 blood oxygen sensors by the US Court of Appeals that had lifted that stay that 889 01:02:52.440 --> 01:02:55.639 had allowed sales to continue. Well, that court came back last week and 890 01:02:55.679 --> 01:02:59.360 said, Nope, can't do it. We're gonna have to gonna shut you 891 01:02:59.400 --> 01:03:02.119 down. I lost a patent infringement suit with them. I think it was 892 01:03:02.159 --> 01:03:06.960 Mosimo is the name of the company who has the blood auxygen level. So 893 01:03:07.000 --> 01:03:09.000 I thought, well, Apple's going to have to come to some type of 894 01:03:09.079 --> 01:03:15.119 an agreement with this company to allow them to go ahead and sell the watches. 895 01:03:15.440 --> 01:03:17.320 Apple turned the tables on them. They came out and said, hey, 896 01:03:17.320 --> 01:03:22.519 we're just gonna sell watches without blood oxygen sensors. And I'm thinking, 897 01:03:22.039 --> 01:03:25.719 my ap my I watch Apple Watch. How how often have I used the 898 01:03:25.760 --> 01:03:31.079 blood oxygen sensor? And I'm thinking I've had it for three years now and 899 01:03:31.119 --> 01:03:36.639 I've used it a total of zero times. So I'm not sure the blood 900 01:03:36.639 --> 01:03:44.840 oxygen sensor is a make or brick right now? Ninety six percent that's good 901 01:03:44.880 --> 01:03:50.159 garment, garment undefeated. I could get them. I've got the blood oxygen 902 01:03:50.199 --> 01:03:52.119 sensor on my not for long, three year old watch. No I've updated. 903 01:03:52.239 --> 01:03:54.519 Oh no, it's on the watch. I don't as long as they 904 01:03:54.519 --> 01:03:58.320 don't sell it and get another watch. I've got a blood oxygen sensor. 905 01:03:58.480 --> 01:04:00.760 Well, didn't they say that They're like, when you update it, it's 906 01:04:00.800 --> 01:04:04.280 gonna go away. You can I don't ever updated, so I guess not 907 01:04:05.400 --> 01:04:10.000 talked a little bit about I Robots and previous shows. Shares are down over 908 01:04:10.039 --> 01:04:14.719 twenty seven percent on Friday after companies proposed one point four billion dollar acquisition by 909 01:04:14.719 --> 01:04:18.880 Amazon was expected to be blocked by the European Union's anti trust regulators. This 910 01:04:19.039 --> 01:04:24.079 was over concerns that the deal would harm other robots vacuum makers. Make the 911 01:04:24.119 --> 01:04:28.679 most absurd statement of like robot vacuum makers, like how many people I agree? 912 01:04:28.719 --> 01:04:31.840 I think that it's the craziest anti trust regulation. That's like, we're 913 01:04:31.880 --> 01:04:36.760 protecting the consumer over one company owning all the right. So initially when I 914 01:04:36.760 --> 01:04:40.639 read it Robot, Initially, when I read it Todd, I was thinking, 915 01:04:40.679 --> 01:04:44.039 you know what, this was an anti trust violation on the on Amazon's 916 01:04:44.079 --> 01:04:45.800 level, not Eye robots. So I was thinking, you know, this 917 01:04:45.880 --> 01:04:48.440 is kind of you know, unfair to I Robot. Let them sell on 918 01:04:48.480 --> 01:04:51.519 Amazon or let them sell out. You guys have an eye robot. I 919 01:04:51.559 --> 01:04:56.280 don't. I don't. Do you have one? You have a house. 920 01:04:56.559 --> 01:05:00.960 It seems like my daughter has one and it and when I go to visit. 921 01:05:00.000 --> 01:05:02.119 It runs around the house, you know, and here it'll come and 922 01:05:02.119 --> 01:05:05.239 I get, it's this creepiest thing everard And the other day I did, 923 01:05:05.239 --> 01:05:08.599 it's a two little story house, and she has one on both levels. 924 01:05:09.039 --> 01:05:12.199 I went downstairs and I was doing some stuff, and I came back upstairs 925 01:05:12.239 --> 01:05:16.000 and the stupid thing had had eaten up my phone charger. Really, so 926 01:05:16.039 --> 01:05:20.079 I guess you has to keep everything off the floor. Demand for that product 927 01:05:20.440 --> 01:05:26.039 drops nearly fifty percent since twenty twenty one pandemic. Little really the demand for 928 01:05:26.079 --> 01:05:28.920 the robot. I was kind of surprised to see that there was a huge 929 01:05:28.920 --> 01:05:32.079 demand spike, you know, upwards during the pandemic because more people are home, 930 01:05:32.159 --> 01:05:34.599 you know, just use her backing guys. Yeah, I was just 931 01:05:34.639 --> 01:05:40.480 saying that that seems like a pretty easy thing to spirit. Airlines had an 932 01:05:40.519 --> 01:05:44.599 up day on Friday, but it's down largely this week because of the whole 933 01:05:44.639 --> 01:05:49.239 issue with what happened on one of their planes last week with the whole door 934 01:05:49.280 --> 01:05:53.360 blowing up and things. So that didn't go well. House things looking with 935 01:05:53.480 --> 01:05:58.400 Boeing Boying the same same problems Boying did. Boying did drop to eight percent, 936 01:05:58.440 --> 01:06:00.480 to a two month low. On Tuesday, after or Wells Fargo downgraded 937 01:06:00.559 --> 01:06:05.719 the stock, saying the ongoing government review could uncover other issues. And we've 938 01:06:05.719 --> 01:06:10.320 talked about that that these types of things tend to drag on and on. 939 01:06:11.039 --> 01:06:13.800 Like we said last week on the show, we thought there would be some 940 01:06:13.840 --> 01:06:15.679 buying interest under two hundred, like I said earlier in the show, And 941 01:06:15.679 --> 01:06:20.159 sure enough take down to one ninety nine and then bang back to two thirteen. 942 01:06:21.840 --> 01:06:25.960 Is it time to buy? You know, who knows. But it 943 01:06:26.119 --> 01:06:30.719 seems to us that this probably is going to drag on for a while. 944 01:06:30.199 --> 01:06:33.199 So I don't think I'd get too excited and start loading up on Boying here 945 01:06:33.440 --> 01:06:38.119 if it were to drop under two hundred. Maybe take a small position talk 946 01:06:38.159 --> 01:06:42.239 about Dragon for the while. These wars, oh my goodness, they're not 947 01:06:42.280 --> 01:06:45.119 gonna stop. So don't forget about those defense companies. Yeah, and they 948 01:06:45.199 --> 01:06:47.639 kind of got some you know, they're kind of out of the news now, 949 01:06:47.679 --> 01:06:50.760 so people tend to forget about them. You know, Ita is a 950 01:06:50.760 --> 01:06:55.880 good way, it's a good etf air defense. And you can find a 951 01:06:55.920 --> 01:07:00.639 list of the companies that you could take a look at, Ita, tom 952 01:07:00.679 --> 01:07:05.719 Apple. You know, the Tesla continues to drift South. The stock under 953 01:07:05.719 --> 01:07:11.480 pressure after the company cut prices in Europe last week similar to what they had 954 01:07:11.639 --> 01:07:15.239 done in China. Competition and slowing demand are to blame. It's always it's 955 01:07:15.280 --> 01:07:19.239 always been an expensive stock, and it's price for perfection, right, and 956 01:07:19.320 --> 01:07:23.679 there hasn't been a lot of perfection. I don't think it takes a genius 957 01:07:23.719 --> 01:07:29.920 done to figure out that prices. Let's let me start with demand for suv 958 01:07:30.320 --> 01:07:34.199 SUVs. Demands for electric vehicles is slowing down. We've talked about that on 959 01:07:34.239 --> 01:07:40.159 the show for a year that eventually everybody that can afford one has one, 960 01:07:40.840 --> 01:07:45.519 and and now you need to get lower prices to bring more consumer and that's 961 01:07:45.519 --> 01:07:49.800 what's happening for lower rates. Lower rates helped too. Lower rates, lower 962 01:07:49.880 --> 01:07:54.559 prices will help. And I think you you've mentioned Todd a couple of times 963 01:07:54.559 --> 01:07:59.400 that two thirds of all car purchases are used cars, and there just haven't 964 01:07:59.440 --> 01:08:03.360 been any used evs. They're starting now. Hers is getting rid of twenty 965 01:08:03.400 --> 01:08:10.199 thousand of their evs. It's interesting Hurt's gotten upgrade. On Monday, stock 966 01:08:10.360 --> 01:08:14.159 rallied nicely on the news. Stanley, yeah that theymp that, and then 967 01:08:14.559 --> 01:08:16.680 on Friday they got a downgrade. You're right, Dave. That's how you'll 968 01:08:16.720 --> 01:08:21.239 get some of the middle class, the lower middle class to start getting in 969 01:08:21.279 --> 01:08:26.119 the EV space, as it has to be through the used car space. 970 01:08:26.319 --> 01:08:28.960 Well, there's ten the lag. There's a lag there, no question. 971 01:08:29.079 --> 01:08:32.600 And about ten percent of the cars out there are are electric roughly, Okay, 972 01:08:32.640 --> 01:08:34.880 maybe it's nine, maybe the eight, maybe it's ten, eleven, 973 01:08:35.359 --> 01:08:40.279 around ten percent, just for for argument's sake, right, and about forty 974 01:08:40.399 --> 01:08:45.920 percent of the public has expressed an interest in having an electric vehicle. That's 975 01:08:45.960 --> 01:08:48.359 a big gap. Well, so there's a big gap of inequality in this 976 01:08:48.399 --> 01:08:50.760 country. So it makes sense, no question, right, No, not 977 01:08:50.840 --> 01:08:55.800 that we're talking about here, never expect that interest would ever meet who actually 978 01:08:55.800 --> 01:08:58.920 has it in this country because there's a lot of things that people want in 979 01:08:58.920 --> 01:09:01.520 this country that they can't afford. You need to get a significant The point 980 01:09:01.560 --> 01:09:06.199 is, we needed a significant secondary car electric car market, yeah, for 981 01:09:06.439 --> 01:09:11.640 to get anywhere near forty percent. How many people want griod education, secondary 982 01:09:11.720 --> 01:09:15.039 education for the children can't afford it, sure, right, And so that's 983 01:09:15.119 --> 01:09:17.239 that's kind of what the problem you run into, Like, is this starting 984 01:09:17.239 --> 01:09:20.279 to be, you know, good for just a certain class you hope it's 985 01:09:20.319 --> 01:09:26.439 not because of what is said to be the potential of that. So news 986 01:09:26.439 --> 01:09:30.720 on Rivian last week, another electric car maker in November. I had forgotten 987 01:09:30.720 --> 01:09:33.319 this. In November of twenty one, the stock was one hundred and seventy 988 01:09:33.479 --> 01:09:39.600 nine dollars, but it's spent most of the last two years under thirty dollars, 989 01:09:40.239 --> 01:09:43.880 and it was lower on Wednesday after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from buy 990 01:09:43.960 --> 01:09:47.119 to hold, seeing the path to profitability is longer than expected. Well, 991 01:09:47.119 --> 01:09:53.880 if Tesla is having the lower prices because of declining demand, imagine where Rivian's 992 01:09:53.880 --> 01:09:58.239 at. That's a lot more interesting around two hundred, yeah, you know, 993 01:09:58.399 --> 01:10:00.079 and then that's kind of where you would maybe start a position. If 994 01:10:00.079 --> 01:10:04.199 it gaps lower, it has earnings next week on Wednesday. No Tesla. 995 01:10:04.800 --> 01:10:09.800 Yeah, so you know, starting position maybe at that two hundred. If 996 01:10:09.840 --> 01:10:13.680 it drops lower, start adding a back end. You get an average price 997 01:10:13.720 --> 01:10:15.479 around one eighty, right, and if you want two hundred schaares, maybe 998 01:10:15.479 --> 01:10:18.119 a buy fifty, right, you know know, just get your foot in 999 01:10:18.119 --> 01:10:20.399 the water. Yeah, I agree with you, Tata. I think there're 1000 01:10:20.520 --> 01:10:26.720 again with Boyne under two hundred, Tesla under two hundred, I would expect 1001 01:10:26.760 --> 01:10:30.079 there to be some interest, and I think the Tesla stock probably can get 1002 01:10:30.079 --> 01:10:32.720 there. And when the Tesla story, you know, once it comes back, 1003 01:10:32.760 --> 01:10:35.840 and it will, it's gonna run. I mean we saw the stock. 1004 01:10:35.920 --> 01:10:39.479 I mean it's after stock split, but I mean it was up around 1005 01:10:39.479 --> 01:10:43.760 four hundred dollars, you know, so I think before like the first initial 1006 01:10:43.800 --> 01:10:45.359 stock split, they hit one thousand dollars. Well, right, but you 1007 01:10:45.359 --> 01:10:48.399 know relative it's four hundred, so I mean it's it's it could double and 1008 01:10:48.439 --> 01:10:51.000 it's still when't had a new all time high. Yeah, and so we 1009 01:10:51.159 --> 01:10:55.079 know that if it starts running, it's gonna run, like the video runs. 1010 01:10:56.079 --> 01:10:59.840 It's just it takes a catalyst, and it doesn't seem like there's anything 1011 01:11:00.119 --> 01:11:02.920 other than earnings potentially upcoming. It's kind of like Boying where we were talking 1012 01:11:03.000 --> 01:11:08.960 last week about there isn't It's hard to understand what would cause Boying's doctor rally. 1013 01:11:09.000 --> 01:11:12.640 What's the positive cattle, what's the positive what positive thing can happen with 1014 01:11:12.720 --> 01:11:17.039 Boying in this environment and and I can't think of anything. And the same 1015 01:11:17.039 --> 01:11:24.199 with Tesla. It's hard to imagine with declining prices and declining demand that there's 1016 01:11:24.279 --> 01:11:28.920 anything significant that's going to happen. Declining hold of the Chinese market. Yeah, 1017 01:11:29.079 --> 01:11:31.319 and you're not one of the biggest issues. It's interesting China has sixty 1018 01:11:31.359 --> 01:11:36.119 percent of all the EV market. It is from China sixty percent. But 1019 01:11:36.239 --> 01:11:41.239 let's not forget they also want eighth of the entire world, so it's easier 1020 01:11:41.279 --> 01:11:45.520 for them to be a percentage of the market than we are. We're we're 1021 01:11:45.560 --> 01:11:47.279 winding down on the segment. You know, you want to find out all 1022 01:11:47.319 --> 01:11:51.119 the problems the people with the EV cause of having been west when it was 1023 01:11:51.159 --> 01:11:54.159 so cold. We talked about it. Yeah, we talked, We talked. 1024 01:11:54.600 --> 01:11:56.720 We talked about that a lot. You missed it. You've got to 1025 01:11:56.760 --> 01:12:00.079 have a home charger or you shouldn't have an EV's I mean, it really 1026 01:12:00.159 --> 01:12:03.880 is. It's that simple. It's a it's a complete pain if you if 1027 01:12:03.920 --> 01:12:06.359 you don't have a home charger. I had it for three weeks with no 1028 01:12:06.399 --> 01:12:09.840 home charger. No thanks, I don't want to go down that road. 1029 01:12:09.960 --> 01:12:13.399 Once again, we appreciate your joining us on this Sunday morning. Dean, 1030 01:12:13.600 --> 01:12:16.760 Sebastian Todd, Dave all here for you. We'll be back after this break. 1031 01:12:16.920 --> 01:12:25.880 Thank you. Say it's only a name, Oh, welcome back everybody. 1032 01:12:25.920 --> 01:12:29.239 It's Dean Greenberg with Oh my buddy, you see it at Greenberg Financial 1033 01:12:29.279 --> 01:12:32.600 Group. It's Dave and it's Todd. Semi Conductor's really strong week. We 1034 01:12:32.600 --> 01:12:36.119 were talking about last week. Dean, What do you see that can continue? 1035 01:12:36.199 --> 01:12:40.600 Here? So many times I see like this, you know, the 1036 01:12:40.720 --> 01:12:45.039 value investors having such a hard time with themselves because their thesis worked for forty 1037 01:12:45.119 --> 01:12:47.399 years and it hasn't worked over the last five. Is that something that continues? 1038 01:12:47.399 --> 01:12:50.359 Are we in a new era of the world where growth companies are just 1039 01:12:50.399 --> 01:12:54.119 where you should be in We're in the nineties, baby, We're in the 1040 01:12:54.199 --> 01:12:58.039 nineties when every dot com company would go up and everybody thought they should be 1041 01:12:58.039 --> 01:13:01.960 making twenty thirty percent, and until it wasn't. You know, and believe 1042 01:13:02.000 --> 01:13:05.399 me when Dave will tell you, to those dot com companies, they just 1043 01:13:05.439 --> 01:13:10.319 go and there was nothing, no substance to it. So at least the 1044 01:13:10.359 --> 01:13:15.119 stocks that are running now, there's substance. Microsoft the video, there's a 1045 01:13:15.199 --> 01:13:17.960 reason that they're going higher. So the semiconductors. I mean, that's the 1046 01:13:18.000 --> 01:13:23.560 world we're in right now with this AI stuff. What we can't cannot and 1047 01:13:23.600 --> 01:13:28.159 I cannot evaluate is how big a market that's not going to be? Is 1048 01:13:28.199 --> 01:13:30.880 that it's change? I know it's a change and stuff, but we don't 1049 01:13:30.880 --> 01:13:33.800 know where the landscape. It's like when computers came in, did we know 1050 01:13:33.920 --> 01:13:38.319 everything that was going to happen from that? I mean, the computer itself 1051 01:13:38.439 --> 01:13:41.960 is nothing anymore. It's on your phone. It's the chips that go into 1052 01:13:42.000 --> 01:13:45.560 it, the software that goes into it. The creativity now is going to 1053 01:13:45.640 --> 01:13:48.560 be AI. Where's it going to take us? What about this quantum computing? 1054 01:13:49.039 --> 01:13:53.119 Right when they figure that out? How does that change things? That's 1055 01:13:53.199 --> 01:13:56.720 huge? That's that's huge. Our client, Mic has been on that for 1056 01:13:56.760 --> 01:14:00.439 a couple of years in high Mic and he said articles all the time about 1057 01:14:00.520 --> 01:14:05.760 quantum computing and it's a it's a big it's huge. Whoever figures it out, 1058 01:14:06.479 --> 01:14:11.000 it's going to have a tenous global advantage. Google has one going. 1059 01:14:11.640 --> 01:14:15.880 I think even Saudi Arabia has I think this is this, US has one. 1060 01:14:15.920 --> 01:14:18.520 This is a new space race here. Yeah, it really is to 1061 01:14:18.520 --> 01:14:25.000 see who can really so with the end, what will the quantum computer do? 1062 01:14:25.720 --> 01:14:29.720 It essentially could hack any regular computer because it can, so why it 1063 01:14:29.760 --> 01:14:32.079 is that a good thing? It's it's a good thing for who saves it 1064 01:14:32.159 --> 01:14:34.960 first. It's basically like the first person to create a nuclear bomb. Once 1065 01:14:35.000 --> 01:14:39.640 you create it, you controlled the power. Not not true. We created 1066 01:14:39.720 --> 01:14:43.119 and now and other people have it. Yeah, but who's the world power? 1067 01:14:43.520 --> 01:14:47.039 We are. So when you control the most powerful tool in the world, 1068 01:14:47.560 --> 01:14:49.840 you can continue to be the most powerful country in the world. That's 1069 01:14:49.840 --> 01:14:53.760 why the United States is pending a lot of money behind it to try to 1070 01:14:54.079 --> 01:14:57.760 be the first country. But Google is doing their own, China's doing their 1071 01:14:57.800 --> 01:15:00.760 own. So it's really interesting to see what ends up. And it's funny 1072 01:15:00.760 --> 01:15:05.079 that Google right nor really it's Nation States leading these huge projects, but it's 1073 01:15:05.079 --> 01:15:09.399 an actual company this time. Well, that's why they're saying. Google is 1074 01:15:09.439 --> 01:15:12.840 the type of stock you buy right now and you just hold it. It'll 1075 01:15:12.880 --> 01:15:15.159 have its ups and downs and maybe add to it when it's down and you 1076 01:15:15.279 --> 01:15:18.399 trim back when it's up. But you don't sell Google. It's so many 1077 01:15:18.399 --> 01:15:21.399 different areas. It's not just an advertising company. No, no, gosh, 1078 01:15:21.479 --> 01:15:28.880 no gosh no. The goldvin Zach's global analyst Robert Oppenheim. Oppenheimer, 1079 01:15:28.920 --> 01:15:32.520 I think it is talked about him, the one that did the what do 1080 01:15:32.560 --> 01:15:35.800 you call it bomb the h of the movie. No, there's a different 1081 01:15:35.800 --> 01:15:41.560 one, maybe his cousin, huh. But he said last week that we 1082 01:15:41.600 --> 01:15:45.960 are in a new global similar to the Internet, a new global expansion because 1083 01:15:46.000 --> 01:15:51.159 of AI that will run for years and will cause interest rates to stay elevated 1084 01:15:51.199 --> 01:15:55.680 for years. What it's going to be amazing though, And I like it 1085 01:15:55.720 --> 01:15:58.960 on the healthcare I like the AI on the healthcare site. What they do 1086 01:15:59.199 --> 01:16:02.479 phenomenal. I'm I mean think about what the I mean. There's hearts now 1087 01:16:02.520 --> 01:16:06.279 you can put in that artificial hearts that can keep running and stuff. Eventually 1088 01:16:06.279 --> 01:16:09.439 it's going to be every part of your body is going to be able to 1089 01:16:09.479 --> 01:16:13.439 be artificial. Now, what will deteriorate after that will be you know, 1090 01:16:13.600 --> 01:16:16.960 obviously your skeleton and everything else. But people going to live longer and longer. 1091 01:16:17.560 --> 01:16:23.000 Yeah, and that puts the onus on what the person putting away money, 1092 01:16:23.199 --> 01:16:27.960 because what's going away and what's not lasting longer and longer? Pension systems. 1093 01:16:28.399 --> 01:16:31.560 Right, there's no pensions anymore compared to what they're worth forty years ago. 1094 01:16:31.960 --> 01:16:36.399 So, and how much longer are people living today compared to forty years 1095 01:16:36.439 --> 01:16:41.640 ago? Much longer? So let's exacerbate. You know, let's project what 1096 01:16:41.720 --> 01:16:45.520 looks like that from my age when I'm in forty years? What does the 1097 01:16:45.560 --> 01:16:48.159 pension system look like then? And how longer am I? How much longer 1098 01:16:48.159 --> 01:16:50.560 am I going to live? I tell you how the pension system is going 1099 01:16:50.640 --> 01:16:54.199 to be. You're going to be paying all the people that are forty and 1100 01:16:54.239 --> 01:16:57.279 fifty years old so they can live, and there won't be enough people to 1101 01:16:57.279 --> 01:16:59.920 give you money, and you're going to put all this money into that, 1102 01:17:00.079 --> 01:17:02.920 so they don't I don't understand why they have it. Over the last twenty 1103 01:17:02.920 --> 01:17:08.319 someone years been able to come up with a system that phades out over thirty 1104 01:17:08.399 --> 01:17:11.439 or fifty years that we don't even have a solid security system, but the 1105 01:17:11.479 --> 01:17:15.840 money still comes out and goes into protected accounts. Well, because the only 1106 01:17:15.880 --> 01:17:19.359 way to do that means someone gets caught holding the bag, and no one 1107 01:17:19.399 --> 01:17:23.119 wants to get caught hold it's going to be caught holding the bag. Someone 1108 01:17:23.159 --> 01:17:26.560 has to pay them. What do you mean So if what you're your scenario 1109 01:17:26.640 --> 01:17:29.880 of phasing it out means that you get less and less income each year until 1110 01:17:29.880 --> 01:17:32.960 there's left nothing left. Now, how are you going to get money? 1111 01:17:33.000 --> 01:17:36.000 It's like, okay, you're yea, I'm paying taxes, right, I 1112 01:17:36.039 --> 01:17:41.039 forget. But you start with people like you, well, only ten percent 1113 01:17:41.159 --> 01:17:45.520 is going into your account, while he's still putting into Social Security. But 1114 01:17:45.720 --> 01:17:47.880 in twenty years from now, people that are not even born, they'll be 1115 01:17:47.920 --> 01:17:50.279 at the point that they won't need it because every year you go up ten 1116 01:17:50.319 --> 01:17:55.960 percent forty and people are dying off, so they don't need to solve security, 1117 01:17:56.199 --> 01:18:00.239 which then keeps it. I'm not saying that it's perfect, but there's 1118 01:18:00.239 --> 01:18:02.560 an actual area you can put in there and they know it. Of how 1119 01:18:02.560 --> 01:18:06.960 long that would take to do. And yes, the the the country I 1120 01:18:08.000 --> 01:18:13.800 mean the government would probably have to have h pay out some of the money 1121 01:18:13.840 --> 01:18:15.279 in the middle of it, you know, to keep to keep it going. 1122 01:18:15.279 --> 01:18:19.079 About what you fix all securities, like you said, somehow you phase 1123 01:18:19.119 --> 01:18:26.399 it out. But you give tax credits to businesses to help increase matches. 1124 01:18:26.439 --> 01:18:30.560 So you have a company match, a government match, and then your own 1125 01:18:30.600 --> 01:18:33.720 contributa country companies do match. Now you know what I'm saying is have companies 1126 01:18:33.840 --> 01:18:39.520 have a pseudo company match, I mean a country match, a government match. 1127 01:18:39.560 --> 01:18:43.600 So the government incentive gives extra money for the company to go above and 1128 01:18:43.640 --> 01:18:47.479 beyond their original match, So the employee gets even more put away into their 1129 01:18:47.479 --> 01:18:50.279 Form one K. The government's still going to get their money back when they 1130 01:18:50.319 --> 01:18:53.359 take it out. I don't want to see that in full one care. 1131 01:18:53.680 --> 01:18:56.479 If that's going to go in money, it's got to go into an account 1132 01:18:56.680 --> 01:18:59.880 that has a lot of restrictions on it. Then you can't touch unless you 1133 01:19:00.039 --> 01:19:03.239 disabled the most restrictions. Now you can borrow money against it, you can 1134 01:19:03.840 --> 01:19:06.840 sell, and you can do stuff. I know, but you still need 1135 01:19:06.920 --> 01:19:10.399 that. Don't get me wrong, you still need that, but do replace 1136 01:19:10.439 --> 01:19:14.560 Social Security's got to be in an account that has the same restrictions we have 1137 01:19:14.640 --> 01:19:18.119 on now, okay, and then over time you fix them and do stuff. 1138 01:19:18.119 --> 01:19:23.560 That's how you do it. I mean, it's not that difficult other 1139 01:19:23.640 --> 01:19:28.079 than politically, because if someone brings it up politically, what they're saying is 1140 01:19:28.119 --> 01:19:30.600 the other side is going to take away our social security for people over sixty 1141 01:19:30.640 --> 01:19:34.399 and seventy, And that's never the point. The whole idea is maybe you 1142 01:19:34.560 --> 01:19:39.680 get ten percent of what your social security would be back then, but people 1143 01:19:39.720 --> 01:19:42.640 that are not born yet, they're never going to get social security, but 1144 01:19:42.680 --> 01:19:45.399 they're always they're gonna be on the system where the money is being put away 1145 01:19:45.399 --> 01:19:48.039 for them, and more than anything, what needs to happen is a whole 1146 01:19:48.079 --> 01:19:55.359 overhaul of our education system and make it mandatory instead. And with also civil 1147 01:19:55.600 --> 01:19:59.920 government, but also financial literacy. Those are two courses that should be must. 1148 01:20:00.159 --> 01:20:02.680 You should have to take a semester of civil government, understanding our political 1149 01:20:02.720 --> 01:20:06.560 system, understanding why we all have taxes, why we all have to play 1150 01:20:06.560 --> 01:20:10.800 by the same rules, whether you like them or not, we all understand 1151 01:20:10.840 --> 01:20:14.640 them right. Then the next semester you learn to financial literacy. How to 1152 01:20:14.640 --> 01:20:17.000 do your tax returns, how you look at your balance account, what an 1153 01:20:17.000 --> 01:20:20.840 overdraft means, how to actually invest, what it means for your future. 1154 01:20:21.079 --> 01:20:24.880 You like to think deep, why don't we have to have to such a 1155 01:20:24.920 --> 01:20:30.319 complicated tax system. The only reason we have a complicated tax system is because 1156 01:20:30.960 --> 01:20:36.479 organizations like the Federal Reserve and big corporations that want to continue to take money 1157 01:20:36.479 --> 01:20:39.960 out of our pockets. I mean the government wants to control more and more. 1158 01:20:40.039 --> 01:20:43.800 I'm not talking about paying taxes. There is going to be complicated. 1159 01:20:43.840 --> 01:20:46.319 Why does it have to be like if you really have a fair share and 1160 01:20:46.359 --> 01:20:48.840 you know where I go with this, because the time we didn't even have 1161 01:20:48.960 --> 01:20:53.800 income tax teing. Okay, stop that we need to pay income tax. 1162 01:20:54.000 --> 01:20:57.439 But why isn't it the same be the reason we have to add income taxes 1163 01:20:57.479 --> 01:21:00.600 because the old tax system didn't make enough to cover the entitlements of the old 1164 01:21:00.640 --> 01:21:03.560 system, So then you have to make new taxes and then that way, 1165 01:21:03.600 --> 01:21:08.159 Why does it have to be complicated and then you have to make more interest 1166 01:21:08.520 --> 01:21:12.279 touch it special interest. No, it's because there's more and more entitlements out 1167 01:21:12.279 --> 01:21:15.800 of the system. When you have so many entitlements added to a system, 1168 01:21:15.840 --> 01:21:21.800 you can't fund enough. There's so many welfare programs in this country, and 1169 01:21:21.880 --> 01:21:26.199 those that's not what I'm talking about. At the end of the day, 1170 01:21:26.239 --> 01:21:29.880 whatever the tax is that we need to do to make the money, put 1171 01:21:29.920 --> 01:21:33.560 it where it's not complicated to where you have to spend five thousand dollars to 1172 01:21:33.600 --> 01:21:39.359 get your damn tax returns done or simple tax returns done for two hundred dollars. 1173 01:21:39.439 --> 01:21:43.239 Okay, just go ahead and make it simple. That's all I'm saying. 1174 01:21:43.520 --> 01:21:45.239 You don't know all these write offs and all this other stuff. No, 1175 01:21:46.399 --> 01:21:48.319 this is where we're doing. This is what you're at. This is 1176 01:21:48.319 --> 01:21:50.840 where we go. Well, then just do a flat tax called a day. 1177 01:21:50.960 --> 01:21:54.399 Thank you. That's all I wanted out of your mouth. All right. 1178 01:21:56.159 --> 01:21:58.880 And you know, one of the sleepiest stocks over the last year has 1179 01:21:58.880 --> 01:22:02.000 been Murk and and they were up twenty percent. They're up twenty percent in 1180 01:22:02.039 --> 01:22:04.680 the last six weeks. I saw it. I couldn't believe it. Wait, 1181 01:22:04.680 --> 01:22:09.039 is that what happened? What happened here? Their pe is five times 1182 01:22:09.279 --> 01:22:13.800 is five times at a Pfizer and close to that of Eli Lily Dean, 1183 01:22:13.800 --> 01:22:17.319 who has some blockbuster drugs. Merk's pe is close to Lily, and it's 1184 01:22:17.399 --> 01:22:21.880 primarily being driven by this Harpoon Therapeutics take a purchase that they made. Uh, 1185 01:22:23.039 --> 01:22:26.760 cancer drug is going to be their thing there, and I think people 1186 01:22:26.840 --> 01:22:29.920 must be thinking that Mark is going to come up with a cure for cancer. 1187 01:22:30.039 --> 01:22:34.479 Did you know that Merk made Johnson and Johnson's COVID vaccine. Yeah, 1188 01:22:34.560 --> 01:22:38.920 I did not know that. I'm talking to buddy. Would you rather buy, 1189 01:22:39.520 --> 01:22:42.279 you know, try to pick it at one, two or three healthcare 1190 01:22:42.319 --> 01:22:45.039 stocks or just pick xov Because what Dean's point is, I think it's well 1191 01:22:45.239 --> 01:22:50.239 well taken. I mean, AI is going to help healthcare continuously bring down 1192 01:22:50.279 --> 01:22:54.000 their cost, but also helps more people. More and more people are going 1193 01:22:54.079 --> 01:22:57.600 to be using things like Ozemba because they've come all kinds of different crazy things 1194 01:22:57.600 --> 01:23:00.760 that could be. Do you pick XLV that way you just pick the whole 1195 01:23:00.800 --> 01:23:03.199 industry itself, or do you try to pick a one or two three? 1196 01:23:03.199 --> 01:23:06.119 Do I try to pick the Novos? Do I try to pick the merks? 1197 01:23:08.319 --> 01:23:13.159 Knowing your It depends on how biggy portfolio was too, you know, 1198 01:23:13.399 --> 01:23:15.439 I mean buying the et s gives you a little bit of all the stocks. 1199 01:23:15.439 --> 01:23:17.560 Depends on when the stocks you're gonna have. Then you might want to 1200 01:23:17.600 --> 01:23:19.640 pick one or two out there to give it a little boost. I like 1201 01:23:19.680 --> 01:23:24.479 Novo. You know they've come down the weight, but I uh, from 1202 01:23:24.520 --> 01:23:28.399 the hive, not much. But I do think that they are on the 1203 01:23:28.399 --> 01:23:32.800 cutting edge of these weight loss you know drugs. Now, well there's that 1204 01:23:32.880 --> 01:23:36.720 in more journal and I'm one of the one of these weeks, Sebastian, 1205 01:23:36.720 --> 01:23:43.039 I'm gonna remember what the zepp bound bound. It's a session on yeah, 1206 01:23:43.079 --> 01:23:45.840 but now they're putting on there. These are not weight loss drugs, but 1207 01:23:45.000 --> 01:23:48.239 zet bound is zet bound. They can sell as a weight loss drug that's 1208 01:23:48.239 --> 01:23:53.960 been improved just now out there, and and it's supposed to be way better 1209 01:23:54.000 --> 01:23:58.920 than ozempic well is it ozempigo? Is it called cell the gluten tide? 1210 01:24:00.239 --> 01:24:03.439 I mean it's a zeptide better than sella gula tide or whatever. That's what 1211 01:24:03.520 --> 01:24:08.800 it comes down to. That's not a zeppic of a journal other stuff that 1212 01:24:08.920 --> 01:24:15.560 is there for diabetes stuff, right Manjaro. The zepp tiezep zep bound zet 1213 01:24:15.600 --> 01:24:18.920 bound is the is the weight loss version of right. So they extract it 1214 01:24:18.960 --> 01:24:23.720 and just sell you right ze bound and you can actually get it off of 1215 01:24:23.760 --> 01:24:26.840 their website. Now they actually Lily is actually so much a website where you 1216 01:24:26.840 --> 01:24:30.039 can get it directly as little as five hundred and fifty dollars a month. 1217 01:24:30.319 --> 01:24:32.079 That's little as little as five hundred and fifty dollars a month if you go 1218 01:24:32.079 --> 01:24:34.920 on the website and get the coupons and all. All right, well we'll 1219 01:24:34.960 --> 01:24:39.479 be back. We have one more section to come up, and we do 1220 01:24:40.079 --> 01:24:45.279 just happy that they listen either anyway they can. This is Dean Greenberg. 1221 01:24:45.279 --> 01:24:50.119 This is the money matters. The right back say it's only a name. 1222 01:24:58.920 --> 01:25:01.560 Welcome back, everybody, thanks for listening. This is the Money Matter show. 1223 01:25:02.760 --> 01:25:08.039 All right, we got our famous state planner on the show, John 1224 01:25:08.079 --> 01:25:13.359 sabilia John, we have some fun meetings together this week. More than anything, 1225 01:25:13.359 --> 01:25:16.239 I learned a lot about not something so fun to talk about, which 1226 01:25:16.279 --> 01:25:23.000 is when someone loses a loved one, when someone passes, and how that 1227 01:25:23.079 --> 01:25:27.640 process goes about. And obviously there's kind of let's start with like a normal 1228 01:25:27.680 --> 01:25:30.319 brokerage account, per se, on a brokerage account. You can just have 1229 01:25:30.359 --> 01:25:34.359 a brokerage account, and there's obviously no beneficiaries on a brokerage account. Or 1230 01:25:34.399 --> 01:25:39.439 you can do something called a TOD, which is called transfer on death sure 1231 01:25:39.479 --> 01:25:43.520 and it actually names the beneficiary. Yeah, kind of talk walk us through 1232 01:25:43.520 --> 01:25:47.079 those how when someone passes with that account, why one may be better? 1233 01:25:47.159 --> 01:25:51.520 What's the process? Like, how does it work? Well, you know, 1234 01:25:51.560 --> 01:25:57.159 typically the best thing you could do if it's if it's just one beneficiary, 1235 01:25:57.199 --> 01:26:00.000 the beneficiary is over eighteen, you trust them, they're good with money. 1236 01:26:00.159 --> 01:26:01.960 Simple TOD would be just fine, right, if that's all you have 1237 01:26:02.079 --> 01:26:05.880 is a simple brokeer's account, maybe retirement, a gound TOD transfer on death. 1238 01:26:06.840 --> 01:26:11.560 It's a process. It's a five minute phone call sometimes just calling a 1239 01:26:11.600 --> 01:26:15.520 custodian and saying, hey, I want to place a beneficiary. Custodian is 1240 01:26:15.520 --> 01:26:18.760 the people who hold the assets. Correct, So for us Greenberg Financial, 1241 01:26:18.760 --> 01:26:24.399 it's RBC and still call Greenberg. We had we had a client on Friday 1242 01:26:24.680 --> 01:26:30.960 that came in and their mother had died several years ago, their father was 1243 01:26:30.000 --> 01:26:34.479 still living and he recently passed away, and he had a TOD account. 1244 01:26:34.520 --> 01:26:39.880 How simple is that we open up an individual account for each of the two 1245 01:26:40.000 --> 01:26:45.079 daughters and the assets are given to them, And then he had a trust 1246 01:26:45.079 --> 01:26:49.520 account for his grandchildren. How simple is that we simply replaced the trustee him 1247 01:26:49.960 --> 01:26:56.159 with the successor trustees, who are his daughter. However, he also had 1248 01:26:56.319 --> 01:27:00.039 other accounts that were not TOD and we're not in a trust. They were 1249 01:27:00.159 --> 01:27:06.399 individual accounts in his name only, and that generated probate. Yeah. So 1250 01:27:09.000 --> 01:27:14.840 you know, had he had everything in trust or everything in TOD, his 1251 01:27:15.039 --> 01:27:18.600 errors would not have had to bother. But because he didn't, they need 1252 01:27:18.640 --> 01:27:24.000 to bother. What does that look like? Well, you know, it 1253 01:27:24.079 --> 01:27:27.640 depends on the state you're in, and it also depends on let's just say, 1254 01:27:27.720 --> 01:27:30.319 let's say Arizona. Let's say Arizona. So your you know, fingers 1255 01:27:30.319 --> 01:27:33.680 crossed. Well, it's probably better to have more money than not. But 1256 01:27:34.039 --> 01:27:38.520 if it's less than seventy five thousand dollars here in Arizona, you do a 1257 01:27:38.520 --> 01:27:41.520 simple Affidavid. You know, we were talking about that in your office, 1258 01:27:42.039 --> 01:27:45.359 saying, oh, it's an X amount of dollars which came out to be 1259 01:27:45.439 --> 01:27:46.960 less than seventy five thousand. I said, you know, you can do 1260 01:27:47.000 --> 01:27:50.720 a simple small state Affidavid. You could simply just go to the Arizona Superior 1261 01:27:50.760 --> 01:27:57.680 Court website, download the Affidavid, get it notarized, indicate what the account 1262 01:27:57.720 --> 01:28:00.520 is, and give it to the custodia or the holder of the amount, 1263 01:28:00.760 --> 01:28:04.640 and they should be able to distribute it. Not anybody can do it. 1264 01:28:04.680 --> 01:28:11.520 You have to be in air, right, and you're basically swearing under perjury 1265 01:28:11.920 --> 01:28:15.439 that you are in air, you know, And I do have lots of 1266 01:28:15.479 --> 01:28:17.760 circuit two or three times this week already that we've had air steel money. 1267 01:28:18.039 --> 01:28:24.439 But if you are a legitimate air you can use that and get access to 1268 01:28:24.479 --> 01:28:27.199 that money. Now, if it's over seventy five thousand, like I just 1269 01:28:27.239 --> 01:28:30.800 had a phone call about it, husband died, didn't have the wife on 1270 01:28:30.880 --> 01:28:34.600 there. One hundred thousand dollars IRA. Now we have to go to probate. 1271 01:28:34.880 --> 01:28:40.039 Yeah, that is similar with my with a client of mine who you 1272 01:28:40.079 --> 01:28:44.359 know, a daughter. The mother passed away. She had an IRA and 1273 01:28:44.319 --> 01:28:47.560 an individual account. Obviously the IRA with the beneficiary passed along really easily, 1274 01:28:47.960 --> 01:28:51.800 but the individual account didn't have a TOD so I had to go through probate 1275 01:28:53.119 --> 01:28:56.960 and once she got me the personal representative paperwork back, all good and all. 1276 01:28:57.159 --> 01:29:00.720 However, I can't just transfer straight into her individual I have to create 1277 01:29:00.760 --> 01:29:03.479 in a state account, which means I need EI in. She didn't know 1278 01:29:03.520 --> 01:29:08.000 that, so then we needed to get more documentation to get EI in for 1279 01:29:08.439 --> 01:29:13.079 her mother's now a state and then transfer the assets into that state account and 1280 01:29:13.119 --> 01:29:16.680 then transfer the money from the estate account to her individual account. All that 1281 01:29:16.680 --> 01:29:19.880 could be bypassed if you did have that small estate AFFI David, it can 1282 01:29:19.920 --> 01:29:24.960 go directly from the deceased account to the individual and you know, and an 1283 01:29:24.960 --> 01:29:28.680 EI in does right, it puts irs. I noticed that we may have 1284 01:29:28.720 --> 01:29:32.239 a taxable entity, so when you start distributing to that state account, you 1285 01:29:32.279 --> 01:29:35.239 may have to file a tax return for the estate. But if it can 1286 01:29:35.239 --> 01:29:39.840 go directly to the air, you know, with a simple TOD or a 1287 01:29:39.880 --> 01:29:44.119 simple affit, you can avoid that less CPA fees or tax repayer fees. 1288 01:29:45.920 --> 01:29:48.800 You know, sometimes if it's an IRA and it goes into a state account 1289 01:29:48.840 --> 01:29:54.000 because there's not a beneficiary, what are the rules? Five years? Not 1290 01:29:54.159 --> 01:29:58.119 ten? But if it goes directly to an air it'll be it'll be ten 1291 01:29:58.159 --> 01:30:00.880 years. It'll be a ten year pullout, right, and we can minimize 1292 01:30:00.920 --> 01:30:03.720 taxation there. It's got to start planning, guys. I've I've had three 1293 01:30:04.000 --> 01:30:09.560 incidents this week of people not putting TODs. Anybody that's listening, please call 1294 01:30:09.600 --> 01:30:13.119 your custodian. I oh, I think I have. It doesn't matter, 1295 01:30:13.399 --> 01:30:16.560 double check, triple check, because that is one of the biggest reasons people 1296 01:30:16.560 --> 01:30:19.960 go to probate. Yeah, it just makes it so simple, very easy. 1297 01:30:20.000 --> 01:30:24.720 It really makes it free for I mean for us, it costs fifty 1298 01:30:24.800 --> 01:30:29.159 dollars to put it on one time fee and then it's at time of death 1299 01:30:29.279 --> 01:30:32.640 the asset transfer they hold. I think it's point zero three percent point zero 1300 01:30:32.720 --> 01:30:35.560 one point one point one point one. You know, you know what the 1301 01:30:35.600 --> 01:30:41.880 average probate is in Arizona costs three to six thousand dollars. Really or you 1302 01:30:41.920 --> 01:30:45.239 can make a quick phone call for fifty bucks for fifty bucks. Is that 1303 01:30:45.279 --> 01:30:47.359 what it is? Fifty dollars fifty dollars one time fee. And then like 1304 01:30:47.399 --> 01:30:50.279 I said, point one of the asset trans the one tenth to one percent 1305 01:30:50.319 --> 01:30:53.920 of the assets when the client dies, or you can set it up when 1306 01:30:53.920 --> 01:30:57.439 you get the when you set up the account right and when the account is 1307 01:30:57.479 --> 01:31:00.399 set up through our clearing firm, require fifty dollar charge. Plus they keep 1308 01:31:00.439 --> 01:31:04.239 one tenth to one percent of the assets when the client dies. Very nice, 1309 01:31:04.720 --> 01:31:08.680 So in most cases it's below the three to six thousand, Like you're 1310 01:31:08.680 --> 01:31:13.000 saying, yeah, yeah, so And what else is the other part about 1311 01:31:13.000 --> 01:31:15.479 probate? When you have a tod what do they do? They show up 1312 01:31:15.479 --> 01:31:17.439 with a death certificate and they get access to the money at that this morning, 1313 01:31:17.720 --> 01:31:24.119 they showed up with a death certificate. They each already had individual accounts, 1314 01:31:24.760 --> 01:31:28.479 so I just get a distribution form. They signed a distribution form, 1315 01:31:28.720 --> 01:31:31.199 give me the death certificate and leave. So how would now do the account 1316 01:31:31.239 --> 01:31:34.359 work on a joint account? Would you still recommend that if your a join 1317 01:31:34.399 --> 01:31:39.359 account with obviously husband and wife on it, join writer survivorship with a with 1318 01:31:39.479 --> 01:31:43.880 a TOD. Why not now you have to you know, here's the Let's 1319 01:31:43.880 --> 01:31:46.239 say both get killed in an airplane crack, right right, I see that 1320 01:31:46.279 --> 01:31:48.520 all the time. Oh, we've got a joint account. We don't need 1321 01:31:48.520 --> 01:31:54.680 TOD. Well, yeah, because if you're with your wife or husband pretty 1322 01:31:54.760 --> 01:31:57.439 much all the time when they're not at work, right, So, if 1323 01:31:57.439 --> 01:32:00.520 you're driving out to dinner and get killed in a car wreck, if you're 1324 01:32:00.520 --> 01:32:04.119 flying to see your grandkids and get killed in the plane crash, and the 1325 01:32:04.319 --> 01:32:08.359 problem. And it's also a good idea to have inside of a trust. 1326 01:32:08.439 --> 01:32:12.279 I mean, let's say you get into that car accident and now you're incapacitated. 1327 01:32:12.399 --> 01:32:15.319 How are you paying the bills? Sure? Right, How who's getting 1328 01:32:15.319 --> 01:32:18.319 access to your money? Now you're making the medical decisions on your part? 1329 01:32:18.680 --> 01:32:21.600 Well yeah, and that's what powers of attorney does. So you know, 1330 01:32:21.640 --> 01:32:25.000 there's a lot of things that are involved with the state plan. You know, 1331 01:32:25.119 --> 01:32:27.399 like we were talking about before with that small state Affidavid, I said, 1332 01:32:27.399 --> 01:32:29.199 you know what's involved with the TOD. You show up with a des 1333 01:32:29.199 --> 01:32:32.239 certificate and you get the money with a small state affidavit. When I was 1334 01:32:32.279 --> 01:32:35.560 discussing it with that person in your office, they have to wait. You 1335 01:32:35.680 --> 01:32:39.399 can't do it right away. You have to wait a certain amount of time 1336 01:32:39.439 --> 01:32:43.399 before you're able to use that small state Affidavid. So same thing with real 1337 01:32:43.439 --> 01:32:45.119 property, Affidavid. You know, if it's less than one hundred grand, 1338 01:32:45.439 --> 01:32:49.479 you can transfer real estate into your name, but you have to wait six 1339 01:32:49.520 --> 01:32:55.600 months. The problem with setting up tood accounts or setting up living trust or 1340 01:32:55.720 --> 01:33:02.000 doing anything proactive for your beneficiaries is there is absolutely no benefit to you. 1341 01:33:03.039 --> 01:33:06.560 And that's all that's kind of a problem because I mean it's an issue because 1342 01:33:06.600 --> 01:33:11.000 there is no benefit to the person that has to jump through these hoops. 1343 01:33:11.479 --> 01:33:14.880 If you jump through these hoops, it will be way better for your kids. 1344 01:33:15.199 --> 01:33:18.079 M I prepared taxes for fifteen years. You think any time I ever 1345 01:33:18.119 --> 01:33:21.720 prepared a tax return for somebody they said thank you, I can count on 1346 01:33:21.760 --> 01:33:26.720 my one hand because they're always paying at the end of the month. There's 1347 01:33:26.720 --> 01:33:30.960 no benefit. They just see, I have a ten thousand dollars liability. 1348 01:33:31.119 --> 01:33:34.640 You know, here you go, because there is no benefit to the person 1349 01:33:34.680 --> 01:33:38.920 that has to jump through these hoops. However, they do tend to be 1350 01:33:39.000 --> 01:33:44.000 procrastinating a bit, and I understand that. Yeah, absolutely, there's not 1351 01:33:44.159 --> 01:33:47.600 one single thing. The individual that has to do all of this work is 1352 01:33:47.640 --> 01:33:51.439 going to glean from doing all of this work. I think that's with anything 1353 01:33:51.479 --> 01:33:54.199 in life, you need you kind of a little bit of a slap in 1354 01:33:54.199 --> 01:33:56.640 the face sometimes to realize, oh, I got to get my things in 1355 01:33:56.720 --> 01:34:01.600 order. It's something that's the right thing to do for your children. And 1356 01:34:01.680 --> 01:34:06.520 I think when you were raising the children, you always tried to do the 1357 01:34:06.640 --> 01:34:10.760 right thing for them, right, You always tried to have them do the 1358 01:34:10.840 --> 01:34:16.000 right thing. This is just simply something another step along that plan. You 1359 01:34:16.039 --> 01:34:21.000 ask, we ask what's your goals and objectives? And if you raise any 1360 01:34:21.199 --> 01:34:26.680 son or daughter, I'm sure you want one of your goals objectives is they 1361 01:34:26.720 --> 01:34:30.680 can be taken care of past your death, whether they take care of themselves 1362 01:34:30.920 --> 01:34:32.840 or whether you help them in some way at least knowing that you make it 1363 01:34:33.239 --> 01:34:38.159 the easiest possible on them, not giving them anything. I don't believe in 1364 01:34:38.159 --> 01:34:41.319 that. I don't think a lot of our clients believe in giving They don't 1365 01:34:41.640 --> 01:34:44.680 a lot of our clients believe in having their kids earn it. But again, 1366 01:34:44.880 --> 01:34:49.119 making it, facilitating it after that process of death is really important. 1367 01:34:49.600 --> 01:34:55.479 Simplifying the transfer of your asses. You want to transfer your ass as to 1368 01:34:55.520 --> 01:34:57.920 your children, that's what you want to do. We hear it all the 1369 01:34:57.960 --> 01:35:00.560 time. I want to have more money in this account because I want my 1370 01:35:00.640 --> 01:35:03.880 kid to have this, or I want my child to have that. Part 1371 01:35:03.960 --> 01:35:11.119 of that process is making that trendsfer as simple as possible for the sure. 1372 01:35:11.359 --> 01:35:17.039 Sure. Yeah, and it also prevents theft. If you put multiple beneficiaries 1373 01:35:17.079 --> 01:35:23.520 on an account, a probate does not protect your beneficiaries. Legitimately had two 1374 01:35:23.520 --> 01:35:26.640 phone calls this week where they're going through probate and one of the beneficiaries took 1375 01:35:26.640 --> 01:35:31.399 everything because they were deemed personal representatives. And just because there's a court supervised 1376 01:35:31.399 --> 01:35:35.239 process doesn't protect all the beneficiaries. Now they're going to be protected by law 1377 01:35:35.319 --> 01:35:40.359 because now there's litigation. But guess who gets paid the attorneys. I will 1378 01:35:40.880 --> 01:35:43.960 mean, right, go ahead, but if you put TODs, you know, 1379 01:35:44.000 --> 01:35:46.720 fifty to fifty for both children, both children have to withdraw fifty percent 1380 01:35:47.399 --> 01:35:50.880 and the bank or bank or whomever the custodian is is going to direct that 1381 01:35:51.479 --> 01:35:56.800 right. I've worked in financial services in Tucson for fifty two years now, 1382 01:35:57.159 --> 01:36:01.760 and I've seen a lot of people come and go and obviously dealt with a 1383 01:36:01.800 --> 01:36:08.600 lot of people that have passed on. And no matter what kind of children 1384 01:36:08.760 --> 01:36:13.239 you raised, no matter what kind of person you are, there is nothing 1385 01:36:13.439 --> 01:36:18.000 that will send things south faster than money. So spend some time get us 1386 01:36:18.039 --> 01:36:20.880 set up right. Jonathan can do it. We'd love to help you. 1387 01:36:21.239 --> 01:36:27.199 And because the Greenberg Financial we're all trying to be happy, right yep. 1388 01:36:27.760 --> 01:36:30.079 And I think at the end of the day, we're all working, specially 1389 01:36:30.199 --> 01:36:32.479 Utah working running like a madman. We're all trying to be healthy, of 1390 01:36:32.479 --> 01:36:39.159 course, but we're really trying to hear Greenberg Financial is berofitable to you next 1391 01:36:39.199 --> 01:36:41.439 week? Say it's only a ma