April 21, 2021
CD18: bitcoin transaction fees and taproot with @evankaloudis and @benthecarman
EPISODE: 0.1.8
BLOCK: 679946
PRICE: 1756 sats per dollar
TOPICS: bitcoin transaction fees, taproot, discreet log contracts
@evankaloudis: https://twitter.com/evankaloudis
@benthecarman: https://twitter.com/benthecarman
streamed live every tuesday:
https://citadeldispatch.com
twitch: https://twitch.tv/citadeldispatch
bitcointv: https://bitcointv.com/video-channels/citadeldispatch/videos
podcast: https://anchor.fm/citadeldispatch
telegram: https://t.me/citadeldispatch
support the show: https://tippin.me/@odell
stream sats to the show: https://www.fountain.fm/
join the chat: http://citadel.chat/
00:00 - Crypto and institutional interest
00:42 - Bitcoin supply and demand
01:54 - Bitcoin dominance in emerging asset category
13:18 - Transaction fees and mempool congestion
18:30 - Difficulty adjustment and sustained fee market
45:16 - Picking transaction fees
48:54 - Preparing for high fee environments
01:18:21 - Taproot activation and timeline
01:30:56 - Introduction to the Oracle and DLC concept
01:39:48 - Use cases for DLC beyond gambling
01:53:52 - Challenges of maintaining privacy in a high fee environment
02:13:29 - Blockchain for the people and the importance of upgrades
02:14:21 - Ossification and the possibility of Bitcoin slowing down
02:19:18 - The future of Bitcoin and the need for changes
WEBVTT
NOTE
Transcription provided by Podhome.fm
Created: 3/17/2024 4:33:22 PM
Duration: 9851.664
Channels: 1
1
00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:16.745
Crypto, which is kind of related to all these questions because there are people in it because their case is, you know, we're gonna see dollar debasement and all of these different things. And there, I think, increasingly, are people in it after hearing what you and Stan Druckenmiller said last fall and realizing the institutional interest is just gonna keep growing and growing, and they just figure they'll ride that wave.
2
00:00:17.330 --> 00:00:23.270
Bitcoin is now up, I think, 3 so when we spoke, I wanna say it was around 14, so it's up about 4 times,
3
00:00:24.530 --> 00:00:26.310
since we spoke in value.
4
00:00:26.695 --> 00:00:31.035
How much more upside is there? Even if you think there's upside, is there a lot more upside, do you think?
5
00:00:31.895 --> 00:00:34.635
You know, I I that we had, we had
6
00:00:35.390 --> 00:00:39.010
video difficulties. So I was gonna have my Bitcoin hat on when you answered that.
7
00:00:39.870 --> 00:00:41.250
Uh-oh. Facebook app.
8
00:00:41.790 --> 00:00:42.110
But,
9
00:00:42.655 --> 00:00:48.355
yeah. So, I mean, Bitcoin there there are many, many different ways to look at Bitcoin. The simplest one is just supply and demand. You mentioned,
10
00:00:48.975 --> 00:00:52.110
the mainstreaming of it and and the institutional acceptance of it.
11
00:00:52.670 --> 00:01:00.655
And I think, you know, the supply is growing 2% a year, and demand is growing faster. That's all you really need to know, and that means it's going higher. So I think that,
12
00:01:01.135 --> 00:01:06.435
you know, it's gonna have these kinds of volatile days. It was down 20% peak to trough over the weekend.
13
00:01:06.740 --> 00:01:07.799
But back in 2017,
14
00:01:08.259 --> 00:01:20.095
which which was a bubble, I don't think I don't think this is a bubble at all in Bitcoin. I think this is now the beginning of a of a mainstream mainstreaming of it. But, even back then during the bubble, it went down 20% on 5 different occasions.
15
00:01:20.635 --> 00:01:31.490
So volatility is with with Bitcoin, volatility is the price you pay for for performance. And and I think that, you know, if it if it it's I think it's like digital gold. That's the that's the first cup in it. Gold is about a $10,000,000,000,000
16
00:01:32.855 --> 00:01:35.275
asset category, and and Bitcoin's $11,000,000,000,000.
17
00:01:35.975 --> 00:01:39.915
And, it's it's infinitely divisible or almost so. It's easily
18
00:01:40.620 --> 00:01:41.120
$1,000,000,000,000
19
00:01:42.780 --> 00:01:43.280
of
20
00:01:44.940 --> 00:01:49.425
negative yielding, of bonds out there. Why would you have that? $1,000,000,000,000 of negative yielding,
21
00:01:50.225 --> 00:02:12.765
of bonds out there. Why would you have that when you get on something that at least has a has the potential to go up? Mhmm. And do all of these arguments then extend to other cryptos? You know, a lot of people are now I look at whether it's videos on social media or you name it. I mean, there's this constant interest in chasing the next big crypto performer, and a lot of them are up even more I mean, way more in some cases than Bitcoin. Do you dabble in any of those or do you just stick with Bitcoin?
22
00:02:13.760 --> 00:02:30.655
No. I I don't I don't, fiddle around with any of any of those others. There's a there's a lot of good theoretical work done on on, lock it in path dependence and technologies. Brian Arthur at Stanford is one of the one of the leaders in that area. He's also written another book called the Nature of Technology. But, effectively, when when you have a technology,
23
00:02:31.540 --> 00:02:36.120
like Bitcoin, there's what happens is that there is a there's a explosion of new,
24
00:02:36.580 --> 00:02:40.920
new technologies that come along with it. So now we have about, what, 8 or 10000 of these ICOs.
25
00:02:41.415 --> 00:02:51.320
But eventually eventually, those things lock in, and there's a dominant company, which is or or a dominant entity. Mhmm. And that's why that's why the antitrust people are going after Amazon and,
26
00:02:52.040 --> 00:02:58.300
Google and Facebook and and because those those companies are so dominant. And I think Bitcoin will be the dominant
27
00:02:58.925 --> 00:02:59.805
technology in this,
28
00:03:00.444 --> 00:03:02.065
in this emerging asset category.
29
00:03:41.050 --> 00:03:47.310
Happy Bitcoin Tuesday, freaks. It's your boy, Matt O'Dell, here for another episode of Citadel Dispatch.
30
00:03:47.770 --> 00:03:48.830
This is episode
31
00:03:49.370 --> 00:03:49.870
18,
32
00:03:51.205 --> 00:03:56.745
of the interactive live show about Bitcoin distributed systems, privacy, and open source software.
33
00:03:57.125 --> 00:04:03.230
Excited to be joined here by our good friends, Evan Kaludes and Ben Decarman, both returned guests.
34
00:04:03.610 --> 00:04:13.275
I wanna do a quick shout out to our ride or die freaks joining us in the live chat. You guys make this worth it, whether you're coming in through Twitter, Twitch, or YouTube.
35
00:04:14.880 --> 00:04:24.340
To to those freaks joining us from the audio streams, we have our 2 podcast feeds. One's the tales from the crypt feed, and one is the dedicated serial dispatch feed.
36
00:04:24.915 --> 00:04:25.415
Those,
37
00:04:26.835 --> 00:04:33.735
what you heard in that intro there was, that intro clip there was CNBC host Kelly Evans talking to legendary investor Bill Miller,
38
00:04:34.650 --> 00:04:36.910
who sounds pretty fucking bullish on Bitcoin,
39
00:04:37.530 --> 00:04:38.410
and she sounds,
40
00:04:39.930 --> 00:04:40.990
completely lost.
41
00:04:41.324 --> 00:04:48.520
And I I just have to highlight the fact that she did try and push him into the shitcoin rabbit hole, and he just kind of shoot her off,
42
00:04:49.080 --> 00:04:50.940
which is a a massive evolution
43
00:04:51.400 --> 00:04:52.139
from 2017
44
00:04:52.440 --> 00:04:54.379
what we used to see on mainstream media.
45
00:04:55.764 --> 00:05:06.540
Before we get started, I wanna just do a quick, special shout out to all the freaks who are supporting the show via streaming sats and podcasting 2 point o apps, whether that's Sphinx or Breeze.
46
00:05:07.240 --> 00:05:10.620
That's fucking awesome. It's just really cool seeing the sats fly in,
47
00:05:12.824 --> 00:05:16.285
and just shout out to the teams that are managing those those software stacks.
48
00:05:16.665 --> 00:05:28.270
Specifically, the Sphinx tribe is really fucking cool that we we all have that that tribe that we're that that we're talking in there. So cheers to all the freaks over there, and, also, cheers to all the freaks supporting the show via lnurlandtippin.me.
49
00:05:31.485 --> 00:05:32.604
That's what it's about, guys.
50
00:05:33.245 --> 00:05:36.225
I wanna keep this ad free. I wanna keep this community funded,
51
00:05:37.884 --> 00:05:41.610
and that's the plan, and you guys make that possible. So cheers to you guys.
52
00:05:42.230 --> 00:05:43.610
So with all that said,
53
00:05:44.470 --> 00:05:47.530
Ben, Evan, you guys just came back from Austin.
54
00:05:48.585 --> 00:05:51.884
Hit us with the the best FOMO. How how how the fuck was it?
55
00:05:52.185 --> 00:05:56.125
Well, not quite. Ben is already down in Austin. Right, Ben?
56
00:05:56.460 --> 00:05:58.480
Yeah. I live here now. So Oh, sure.
57
00:05:58.860 --> 00:06:04.320
So yeah. So I was down there for something like 9 days. So I got in early,
58
00:06:05.260 --> 00:06:06.865
got off to a hot hot start,
59
00:06:07.564 --> 00:06:09.905
fired some guns with Ben and some company.
60
00:06:10.925 --> 00:06:14.145
Then we had Guns and Bitcoin the next 2 days,
61
00:06:14.490 --> 00:06:15.229
which was
62
00:06:15.530 --> 00:06:18.830
really incredible and unique conference. I highly recommend,
63
00:06:19.689 --> 00:06:20.430
you attend,
64
00:06:21.050 --> 00:06:22.990
in the coming years if you get the chance.
65
00:06:23.885 --> 00:06:25.505
And then just hanging around
66
00:06:25.885 --> 00:06:29.585
around Austin, getting to meet a bunch of Bitcoiners I hadn't met in real life.
67
00:06:30.125 --> 00:06:33.570
We had a bit devs at Unchained Capital, which was amazing.
68
00:06:34.669 --> 00:06:37.470
You know, Ben, Ryan Gentry, and Justin Moon,
69
00:06:38.110 --> 00:06:40.610
lead that down there. That that was a really great experience.
70
00:06:41.505 --> 00:06:42.465
And then we had,
71
00:06:43.105 --> 00:06:45.125
one of our favorites, we had a beef steak
72
00:06:45.665 --> 00:06:47.765
on, like, a farm. It was
73
00:06:48.305 --> 00:06:56.300
quite an experience. I think it was the biggest one Josh has done maybe. Biggest one I've definitely been to. And, yeah. 200 people, I think?
74
00:06:57.160 --> 00:06:58.300
Something like that.
75
00:06:58.600 --> 00:07:04.185
We had a lot of people. Was, like, about 200 people. Like, there literally was no more room to stand in the building. And,
76
00:07:04.985 --> 00:07:07.965
we we rented chairs even for the event, and still
77
00:07:08.330 --> 00:07:20.585
there's no room. It was it was really amazing to see how many people showed up. And at the beginning, we did, like, you know, like, raise your hand if you've never been to a Bitcoin meetup. And, like, half the people raised their hand, which is really cool to see. Like, there's a ton of people
78
00:07:20.965 --> 00:07:26.640
coming in, to the space or at least to their first meetup. And, yeah, it was a ton of fun.
79
00:07:27.260 --> 00:07:31.895
And that bid devs was at at Unchained Capital's office in Austin. Right? Yep.
80
00:07:32.435 --> 00:07:32.935
Yep.
81
00:07:33.875 --> 00:07:40.440
Yeah. So much fun, my guys. I, sorry I couldn't make it. It seemed it's it's it could have been one of the best conferences of the year.
82
00:07:41.640 --> 00:07:47.500
I mean, it was it was bigger than Guns and Bitcoin, funny enough. I mean, if we had 200 people and Guns and Bitcoin was a 150,
83
00:07:48.805 --> 00:07:52.425
somehow we beat them. So Guns and Bitcoin was in,
84
00:07:53.925 --> 00:07:58.539
was in Austin right before this bid devs. Right? So did you both go to Guns and Bitcoin?
85
00:07:59.319 --> 00:08:01.979
Yeah. Yeah. We're hanging out together down there.
86
00:08:02.520 --> 00:08:03.020
Yep.
87
00:08:03.400 --> 00:08:05.259
The day before, we went shooting,
88
00:08:06.645 --> 00:08:08.905
the, the Friday, I believe,
89
00:08:09.285 --> 00:08:19.250
was the conference day, and they sort of split that off into a guns track and a Bitcoin track. And it was all about 3 d printed guns and all the advancements there.
90
00:08:19.950 --> 00:08:24.510
And then there was, a Bitcoin track where they're talking about privacy and and a bunch of,
91
00:08:25.405 --> 00:08:29.585
the samurai related guys were giving talks and teaching people about the tools.
92
00:08:30.685 --> 00:08:33.105
I stuck on the guns track because
93
00:08:34.290 --> 00:08:44.465
it's my guns knowledge that was more lacking than my Bitcoin knowledge, but I'm looking forward to, some of the videos coming out. Hopefully, fingers crossed. I I know we want to watch diverters talk, especially.
94
00:08:45.165 --> 00:08:49.345
Yeah. We had a showdown there. No blood was shed, so that was that was good.
95
00:08:50.845 --> 00:08:53.345
But, yeah, it was just amazing. My main takeaway
96
00:08:53.950 --> 00:08:58.530
is that this small, little, niche thing that was, like, a hobbyist thing
97
00:08:58.910 --> 00:09:00.210
is slowly transforming
98
00:09:00.945 --> 00:09:02.405
into, like, the most
99
00:09:02.785 --> 00:09:09.910
advanced part of, like, the gun industry. Like, all the r and d is, like, happening with these people We're just interested in, like,
100
00:09:11.010 --> 00:09:11.990
you know, enabling
101
00:09:12.450 --> 00:09:13.410
people to have,
102
00:09:13.890 --> 00:09:16.709
have more liberty and be able able to construct these things
103
00:09:17.445 --> 00:09:19.464
in in bones. It it's amazing.
104
00:09:19.925 --> 00:09:33.880
It was really cool to see how, like I didn't know how deep it was that, it's gotten where, like, now there's, like, 22 year old kids building, like, belt fed 3 d printed magazines and, like or just, like, oh, this guy built a shotgun out of parts he got at Lowe's,
105
00:09:34.475 --> 00:09:44.550
and it, like, fires accurately. Like like, some of that stuff was insane, and, I'm really I'm really glad I went because, like, you know, I had followed, like, 3 d printed gun stuff on Twitter before, but
106
00:09:45.250 --> 00:09:51.555
I, like, got, like, a, you know, a full baptism in 3 d printed gun this or that weekend and, learned so much more.
107
00:09:52.195 --> 00:09:54.395
Yeah. It's crazy. Like, just the amount of,
108
00:09:54.835 --> 00:09:56.755
time and detail and,
109
00:09:57.075 --> 00:09:59.255
engineering that they spend just to keep them safe.
110
00:09:59.730 --> 00:10:02.310
Like, the default mode that they want for all these weapons
111
00:10:02.770 --> 00:10:04.710
is to fail in, like, a graceful
112
00:10:05.090 --> 00:10:08.150
manner, like, away from the user so no one gets hurt.
113
00:10:08.535 --> 00:10:16.155
You know, like, the first three d printed gun, the liberator that Cody Wilson put together, like, that thing was a piece of shit. Oh, there
114
00:10:16.589 --> 00:10:23.329
I really like But it was it was just a piece of shit. They're like it was a one shot. Right? And it the upper was prone to explode
115
00:10:23.790 --> 00:10:24.690
all the time.
116
00:10:26.495 --> 00:10:31.714
So, yeah, it's really nice to see the innovations being made from people doing, like, pipe,
117
00:10:32.334 --> 00:10:32.834
shotguns
118
00:10:33.214 --> 00:10:33.714
to
119
00:10:35.330 --> 00:10:36.630
plastic lower,
120
00:10:37.490 --> 00:10:42.315
AK 40 Sevens. Like, it it's really crazy now. It's out of control.
121
00:10:43.815 --> 00:10:48.075
I mean, a part of that was if I recall correctly with the Liberator was the idea was, like,
122
00:10:49.310 --> 00:10:54.290
you're you're only supposed to get, like, 2 shots out of it. Right? You're, like, supposed to shoot someone with a gun and then take their gun.
123
00:10:54.910 --> 00:10:55.790
Yeah. Yeah. It's,
124
00:10:56.375 --> 00:11:00.555
it was really just a proof of concept to show that this all could be done.
125
00:11:01.015 --> 00:11:01.995
I mean, I might I
126
00:11:02.535 --> 00:11:05.755
might be completely butchering it, but if I recall correctly, it was
127
00:11:06.170 --> 00:11:14.269
named after a, like, cheap ass gun that we dropped in World War 2 from, like, parachutes to resistance fighters so that they would have
128
00:11:15.905 --> 00:11:22.805
some, like, basic weapon to to to shoot the Nazis with and then take their guns. And that's, like, what he named it after.
129
00:11:25.009 --> 00:11:32.904
But, yeah, that was, like, the original FUD against, 3 d printed guns. Right? Was that they were gonna blow up, so it makes sense, I guess, that, the industry is pushing to,
130
00:11:34.265 --> 00:11:35.325
not have that happen.
131
00:11:35.865 --> 00:11:42.570
Yeah. I shot probably 20 rounds, see 3 d printed guns on the 2nd day. And, yeah. I mean, I still have my hands. And,
132
00:11:43.029 --> 00:11:45.905
like, surprisingly, like, they're still very accurate and,
133
00:11:54.500 --> 00:12:04.405
you know, all this stuff is, like, getting worked out, the kinks and stuff. And I'm sure, like, 10 years from now, there'll be, like, almost no difference. Or if not, they're better than a real, you know, manufactured gun today.
134
00:12:05.925 --> 00:12:06.905
Yeah. Absolutely.
135
00:12:07.845 --> 00:12:09.045
I mean, that's gonna be,
136
00:12:10.485 --> 00:12:13.625
like, there's a major shift happening. Right? Like, people aren't ready,
137
00:12:14.660 --> 00:12:18.600
for, like, what happens next based on based on this. Right?
138
00:12:19.140 --> 00:12:20.200
No. I mean, listen.
139
00:12:20.580 --> 00:12:27.405
Have fun putting the toothpaste back in that tube. Yeah. As far as I'm concerned, like, gun control is dead.
140
00:12:28.425 --> 00:12:37.450
There's there's nothing you can do to stop the proliferation of this data. Right? It'd be like trying to say, oh, we're gonna stop file sharing. Look how that turned out.
141
00:12:38.470 --> 00:12:45.725
So the the freaks are the freaks in the chat seem a little upset with us for this very eloquent Bitcoin conversation we're having.
142
00:12:49.305 --> 00:12:50.925
Before we move on to,
143
00:12:52.630 --> 00:12:56.250
no. Yeah. Before we move on to Taproot, I wanna talk about transaction fees.
144
00:12:57.590 --> 00:12:58.090
The
145
00:12:58.550 --> 00:12:58.950
the
146
00:13:00.525 --> 00:13:02.625
there's no single mempool, but mempools,
147
00:13:03.165 --> 00:13:05.345
if you look up, like, in mempool.space,
148
00:13:06.365 --> 00:13:08.065
who has their own hosted mempool,
149
00:13:08.510 --> 00:13:12.850
You can see right now, and I'm sure most people who have tried to use Bitcoin over the last,
150
00:13:14.030 --> 00:13:16.930
5 or 6 days have noticed that fees have increased
151
00:13:17.395 --> 00:13:17.895
significantly.
152
00:13:18.435 --> 00:13:21.495
And I think there's a lot of confusion, especially among NewCointers,
153
00:13:22.515 --> 00:13:23.815
about what that means,
154
00:13:24.435 --> 00:13:25.735
why fees exist,
155
00:13:26.829 --> 00:13:31.010
why they are necessary, and how to basically plan around them.
156
00:13:31.709 --> 00:13:37.855
So I I think it's a very important topic, that's very topical right now, and it's a good place to start.
157
00:13:39.834 --> 00:13:48.390
So you wanna start there, Evan? Like, what why you wanna to the freaks, like, why we have transaction fees in the first place? Like, why can't I just send a transaction for no money?
158
00:13:49.650 --> 00:13:51.010
Yeah. Sure thing. So,
159
00:13:53.065 --> 00:13:56.205
one of the constraints that we have on Bitcoin is
160
00:13:57.865 --> 00:14:06.410
a block size. There's only a limited amount of transactions that can get in to every block that's supposed to get processed every 10 minutes or so.
161
00:14:06.825 --> 00:14:07.565
And, basically,
162
00:14:08.665 --> 00:14:13.245
the main crux of why we have this limit at all is to keep Bitcoin decentralized.
163
00:14:14.199 --> 00:14:18.860
In our community, it's always been very valuable that an average user is able to spin up a node
164
00:14:19.319 --> 00:14:23.875
and, do so in a reasonable amount of time even with not great Internet.
165
00:14:24.975 --> 00:14:26.595
To do it for cheap cost,
166
00:14:27.055 --> 00:14:33.490
it's very important that, you know, user can get a hard drive and, like, a Raspberry Pi and run one of these node projects.
167
00:14:34.430 --> 00:14:38.290
And, basically, the nodes I mean, the the alternative
168
00:14:39.065 --> 00:14:43.565
shitcoins that don't have these block sizes or have bigger block limits,
169
00:14:44.185 --> 00:14:48.125
they're more prone to being centralized as it's not so easy for,
170
00:14:49.230 --> 00:14:51.329
you know, individuals to run their own nodes.
171
00:14:51.709 --> 00:14:54.209
So if push comes to shove in those ecosystems,
172
00:14:54.589 --> 00:14:59.205
it's easier to, you know, go after the choke points, go after an
173
00:14:59.585 --> 00:15:04.325
AWS, for example, on some of the chains with bigger blocks, bigger sizes.
174
00:15:04.705 --> 00:15:15.965
And, you know, you can effectively cripple the whole network there. So the point of with Bitcoin is that we're going after, you know, legacy institutions, central banks that have run the planet for a 100 years plus.
175
00:15:17.085 --> 00:15:19.745
We need to make sure that our protocol stays,
176
00:15:20.605 --> 00:15:22.065
resilient and decentralized.
177
00:15:22.845 --> 00:15:23.985
And as a result,
178
00:15:24.720 --> 00:15:28.180
you need to end up paying some fees to get your blocks in.
179
00:15:29.199 --> 00:15:29.699
Fortunately,
180
00:15:30.880 --> 00:15:34.180
the layer 1 where you're paying all these fees is not really what
181
00:15:34.835 --> 00:15:39.895
you're gonna be using for, like, instant settlement in, like, your day to day transactions.
182
00:15:40.355 --> 00:15:48.510
So it's so okay that these transactions aren't going through instantly or, you know, they you have to pay to get them processed.
183
00:15:49.210 --> 00:15:50.750
At least that's the way I see it.
184
00:15:51.065 --> 00:15:53.885
Yeah. I think, like, a good just example to, like,
185
00:15:54.265 --> 00:16:10.185
make it, like, more clear. It's like, you know, if we didn't have a block size limit, I could write a bot that produces a terabyte worth of transactions every day. And now you just store a terabyte worth of data every day. And, you know, that quickly become infeasible to, store for the average person.
186
00:16:10.805 --> 00:16:11.705
And, you know,
187
00:16:12.245 --> 00:16:19.690
to keep that from happening, we have a a limit of how many transactions can be produced in a single block in any subsequent day.
188
00:16:20.070 --> 00:16:20.390
And,
189
00:16:20.950 --> 00:16:21.610
you know,
190
00:16:22.149 --> 00:16:22.810
right now,
191
00:16:23.190 --> 00:16:29.535
we're getting, we had a huge decrease in mining hash rate. So because of that, blocks aren't coming out as quickly. So,
192
00:16:30.075 --> 00:16:35.509
therefore, we're doing less transactions in a single day, which is why we have this huge spike in fees.
193
00:16:36.930 --> 00:16:41.990
So fees. Their fees are used as a spam prevention mechanism,
194
00:16:43.555 --> 00:16:48.615
to reduce the load on the network, so you can't just do, like, a denial of service attack.
195
00:16:49.395 --> 00:16:59.110
On top of that, they pay minors. So fees are absolutely necessary. A sustained fee market is absolutely necessary for the long term security of the Bitcoin network. Yep.
196
00:17:00.385 --> 00:17:00.885
Ben,
197
00:17:01.665 --> 00:17:08.485
so so with all that so so this point of this this show, the point is to dispatch. The point of us meeting up every every Tuesday
198
00:17:10.060 --> 00:17:12.000
is to discuss actionable things.
199
00:17:12.700 --> 00:17:16.060
So I think the number one thing that people should realize is
200
00:17:16.620 --> 00:17:21.605
and we're gonna we're gonna dive into to speculation here and stuff like that, but
201
00:17:22.065 --> 00:17:22.725
the reason
202
00:17:23.825 --> 00:17:26.325
we all expect fees to increase,
203
00:17:27.710 --> 00:17:34.290
over time long term. Fees I I got a lot of shit yesterday, but I said fees are designed to pump forever.
204
00:17:35.870 --> 00:17:36.370
The
205
00:17:37.495 --> 00:17:38.955
this particular spike
206
00:17:39.975 --> 00:17:40.475
is
207
00:17:42.135 --> 00:17:49.900
primarily caused by this loss of hash rate. And because you have this loss of hash rate, blocks are coming in slower
208
00:17:50.360 --> 00:17:58.895
until we get the next difficulty adjustment, which will bring the difficulty down, and then blocked will come back in at that target time of around 10 minutes.
209
00:17:59.355 --> 00:18:07.659
But until then, we're getting less blocks in the same amount of time than we usually would. So as a result, if transaction demand is the same or increases,
210
00:18:08.200 --> 00:18:11.305
your fees should increase. It's a market. It's a free market.
211
00:18:12.265 --> 00:18:15.245
So with all that said, for the average user,
212
00:18:15.945 --> 00:18:21.970
if you're if you weren't prepared for high fees, and we're gonna talk about what what it means to be prepared for high fees,
213
00:18:22.990 --> 00:18:28.049
your best move is really to just sit this out and wait for the difficulty adjustment. Right?
214
00:18:30.045 --> 00:18:38.649
Yeah. Definitely. It's, like, I don't know. Right now, I think men pulled out spaces, like, average fee is, like, $20. So, you know, if you don't wanna pay $20 worth of fees for,
215
00:18:39.029 --> 00:18:39.110
to the
216
00:18:40.149 --> 00:18:51.450
71 stats per bite. Yeah. So, like, you know, if you throw a big ball like that and don't wanna pay that, then, you know, then you're forced to huddle, which, you know, might turn out good, might turn out bad, but, you know, maybe we we think it'll turn out well.
217
00:18:53.450 --> 00:18:56.110
So, so question, when is
218
00:18:56.570 --> 00:18:57.070
this
219
00:18:57.450 --> 00:19:01.230
difficulty adjustment due? I I know that it typically happens
220
00:19:01.995 --> 00:19:04.495
every 2 weeks or so, although it's by
221
00:19:04.955 --> 00:19:07.855
block. Right? Right? It's something like 2016
222
00:19:08.475 --> 00:19:08.975
blocks.
223
00:19:09.770 --> 00:19:12.910
Right. So we're entering into FUD territory a little bit,
224
00:19:13.690 --> 00:19:17.310
but this hash was pulled towards the beginning of the difficulty adjustment,
225
00:19:18.205 --> 00:19:20.065
which means it will take us longer
226
00:19:20.445 --> 00:19:21.825
much longer than usual,
227
00:19:22.684 --> 00:19:26.620
to to reach it. Usually, the difficulty adjustment is supposed to be targeting 2 weeks.
228
00:19:27.500 --> 00:19:32.080
It looks now I'm trying to pull it up on my screen. It looks now, like,
229
00:19:33.020 --> 00:19:34.000
we have 14
230
00:19:34.845 --> 00:19:37.024
1400 blocks to go, 1462
231
00:19:37.404 --> 00:19:39.825
blocks to go, and they're targeting April 30th,
232
00:19:40.524 --> 00:19:42.465
which is about 10 days from now,
233
00:19:43.440 --> 00:19:44.419
for the retarget.
234
00:19:45.280 --> 00:19:51.235
But that's an estimate. Right? It's an estimate of an average block time. All all right. All short term hash rate
235
00:19:53.395 --> 00:19:54.915
numbers are basically
236
00:19:55.395 --> 00:20:11.745
they're people are just taking the difficulty and the number of blocks we've had over a certain amount of time, and they're making a guess on how much hash rate there is. There's no way to to verifiably prove how much hash rate there is besides working it out backwards. Another thing to keep in mind, though, here, which is really cool about fees
237
00:20:12.605 --> 00:20:16.600
and this this this free market for fees is in this situation,
238
00:20:17.220 --> 00:20:18.679
because fees are pumping,
239
00:20:20.580 --> 00:20:25.320
it encourages miners that aren't online or might not have been profitable before
240
00:20:25.764 --> 00:20:44.205
to turn on their rigs and get us through that difficulty adjustment. Right? Because as blocks slow, the fee revenue goes up. The higher the fee revenue goes, the more incentive it is for a new miner to come in and, return on turn on old hash power. Right? Yeah. The last block had 3.13
241
00:20:45.065 --> 00:20:55.080
Bitcoin worth of fees. So, yeah, it's, like, half or so total total reward is 9.38. So, like, a third of the reward is fees right now, which is really enticing for them.
242
00:20:56.315 --> 00:20:59.054
Yeah. To all the minor freaks out there, drinks are on you.
243
00:21:00.715 --> 00:21:05.535
They're having a great time. So let's, well, let's talk about the speculation. Right? The speculation is
244
00:21:07.250 --> 00:21:10.950
that there was, an accident at a coal mine in China,
245
00:21:11.810 --> 00:21:16.565
in a province where there's a a large contingency of Bitcoin miners, And as such,
246
00:21:17.185 --> 00:21:18.245
the Chinese government,
247
00:21:18.865 --> 00:21:19.685
turned off
248
00:21:20.065 --> 00:21:27.100
a bunch of coal factories over there. And I guess these miners, you during the wet season, they use excess hydro, and then during the dry season,
249
00:21:27.639 --> 00:21:28.379
they use
250
00:21:29.159 --> 00:21:29.659
coal.
251
00:21:30.054 --> 00:21:32.955
And as a result, they're offline for a couple weeks,
252
00:21:33.654 --> 00:21:35.835
because because of this government action.
253
00:21:37.659 --> 00:21:39.120
So how do we feel about that?
254
00:21:42.220 --> 00:21:45.440
Makes sense. I mean, I've never been to China, but
255
00:21:45.895 --> 00:21:48.795
that's what they're saying. It makes sense why the miners would go down.
256
00:21:50.054 --> 00:21:56.270
It's funny that you mentioned it's like the the wet season miners. Because we had, like, a similar thing happened, like, 6 months ago when
257
00:21:56.730 --> 00:22:00.725
all of them moved from the the hydro dams, I guess, up here. And now
258
00:22:01.205 --> 00:22:04.825
and now we're experiencing it again where, you know, they all left me to deal with difficulty.
259
00:22:05.365 --> 00:22:07.065
What I'm being told is
260
00:22:08.190 --> 00:22:12.210
and and see, as as I as I remind you, freaks, when when
261
00:22:12.990 --> 00:22:18.725
when we're talking about hash on short term time basis, we're either we're either using these estimates that are derived
262
00:22:19.184 --> 00:22:30.020
or people are just trusting the miners on the ground what they're saying, right, which is a very not Bitcoin thing is that you're just you're just trusting words from Chinese miners over there and people in the know.
263
00:22:30.800 --> 00:22:32.660
But from what I'm being told
264
00:22:33.280 --> 00:22:34.340
is that
265
00:22:35.025 --> 00:22:42.965
they're gonna do that transition again, but this time from coal to hydro in about a month, like, 3 to 4 weeks. And this power
266
00:22:43.670 --> 00:22:47.930
situation, like, screwed them right before that transition. So there's a chance
267
00:22:48.390 --> 00:22:54.605
there's a chance that this plus them moving, or maybe the smart ones are just moving already right now and just getting ready.
268
00:23:00.510 --> 00:23:04.130
The re the reason I said, like, we're kind of entering FUD territory
269
00:23:05.070 --> 00:23:05.570
is
270
00:23:06.030 --> 00:23:06.530
because,
271
00:23:08.815 --> 00:23:11.875
so so when I first read this this story
272
00:23:13.695 --> 00:23:22.960
out of China, I read it as it just sounded like proof of stake FUD. Right? Like, 40% of the hash rate was pulled off the network by the Chinese government
273
00:23:23.475 --> 00:23:27.015
from dirty coal mines, and, like, proof of stake is the best.
274
00:23:27.475 --> 00:23:28.615
Like, that was my
275
00:23:28.995 --> 00:23:30.535
my hard and big corner
276
00:23:31.289 --> 00:23:43.425
read of the story originally, and now it's kind of been confirmed by a bunch of people, and, you know, they're saying it's not a fun line. But there's 2 takes here that I've heard, and I'm curious on your opinion on them. The first take is,
277
00:23:45.725 --> 00:23:46.225
that
278
00:23:47.280 --> 00:23:47.780
that,
279
00:23:48.320 --> 00:23:51.780
there's been Bitcoin deniers have used the accusation
280
00:23:52.080 --> 00:23:58.345
that, you know, 70% of the hash rate is located in China, and this proves that, like, 30 or 40% is located there.
281
00:23:59.765 --> 00:24:03.500
And so that's a bullish thing. And then the second take is,
282
00:24:03.800 --> 00:24:09.020
this is what it would look like if you had some kind of government sponsored attack on Bitcoin.
283
00:24:10.385 --> 00:24:19.125
You early in a difficulty adjustment, you would pull a shit ton of hash off the network or as much hash as you could pull off the network. Make the difficulty adjustment last as long as possible,
284
00:24:20.850 --> 00:24:27.429
and then maybe if you had other hash, like, pull some shenanigans while you're shadow mining a competing chain or something like that.
285
00:24:29.015 --> 00:24:32.715
And then I guess there's a third there's a third thing that I've heard
286
00:24:33.175 --> 00:24:39.790
where is could this be, like, some kind of conspiracy of a cartel of Chinese miners to try and boost fees or boost shitcoins.
287
00:24:40.650 --> 00:24:48.055
So I'm curious on your guys' opinion on those 3 because, you know, we do the show every we do the show every week, and it's just fun to speculate on this shit.
288
00:24:48.615 --> 00:24:55.995
Interesting. Alright. So let's tackle the first one first. So you said that this shows that China only has 30%
289
00:24:56.455 --> 00:24:57.675
of the hash rate.
290
00:24:58.400 --> 00:25:00.660
Well, wouldn't that only be for this province?
291
00:25:01.040 --> 00:25:06.180
Unless, like, the proportion of minors are, like, disproportionately only in this province,
292
00:25:06.585 --> 00:25:10.524
you would think that it would be higher than, you know, 30, 35%.
293
00:25:11.385 --> 00:25:31.155
Yeah. I mean, it doesn't prove any I I a 100% agree. Oh, the only thing it proves is that 30% of the hash rate, you know, can turn off together. It just doesn't it doesn't say that there's any other crazy. I mean, yeah, it's it's better than 70% of the network going down. Right? But, still not reassuring and goes to show that, mining still needs to be further decentralized.
294
00:25:33.430 --> 00:25:35.610
But at the same time, things are still moving,
295
00:25:35.990 --> 00:25:39.930
albeit at a slower rate. You know? Our blocks are,
296
00:25:40.664 --> 00:25:42.125
you know, still churning out,
297
00:25:42.745 --> 00:25:45.404
maybe closer to 13 minutes than 10 minutes.
298
00:25:46.024 --> 00:25:46.424
But,
299
00:25:46.904 --> 00:25:50.284
yeah, it goes to show some of the resilience of, Bitcoin.
300
00:25:50.730 --> 00:25:52.590
Now the second question was about,
301
00:25:54.409 --> 00:26:00.255
state sponsored attacks and what this would look like. It's like, yeah, we're totally gonna see this,
302
00:26:01.035 --> 00:26:03.215
in different jurisdictions where there are crackdowns.
303
00:26:04.075 --> 00:26:08.490
It just happens to be that, you know, China has such a huge conglomerate of these miners,
304
00:26:09.670 --> 00:26:14.170
that we see this go down. But who knows? In the future, we could see,
305
00:26:15.030 --> 00:26:16.170
even much greater
306
00:26:16.595 --> 00:26:19.335
difficulty adjustment draw downs than this. And,
307
00:26:20.755 --> 00:26:29.510
you know, it'd be hard to crack down on all the mining in the world, you know, given personal operations and whatnot, but it's easier to, pull the switch on the bigger operations.
308
00:26:30.850 --> 00:26:35.775
And then what was the third one? You said that was this potentially done for for or
309
00:26:36.794 --> 00:26:37.695
to pump Altcoin?
310
00:26:38.075 --> 00:26:55.255
Not necessarily. Well, the second part was. The first part was so you have, like, a cartel of minors. Right? Like, they all know each other. Mhmm. We know, like, it's a it's an incestuous community over in the the western world. It's definitely we don't have an eye sight into the, you know, the eastern markets as much,
311
00:26:55.555 --> 00:27:06.059
but, like, it's definitely super incestuous over there too. Right? Like, there's, like, a there's, like, probably, like, 10 dudes that that are, like, the movers and shakers over there, and they all known each other for fucking years.
312
00:27:07.480 --> 00:27:10.700
The the conspiracy or the theory is that,
313
00:27:11.825 --> 00:27:12.965
they they
314
00:27:13.345 --> 00:27:13.845
strategically
315
00:27:14.385 --> 00:27:15.284
cut hash
316
00:27:15.985 --> 00:27:16.485
to
317
00:27:17.105 --> 00:27:19.800
boost fees so that their fee revenue goes up
318
00:27:21.000 --> 00:27:22.300
or and or
319
00:27:23.400 --> 00:27:25.500
to create FIFA to boost shitcoins.
320
00:27:25.800 --> 00:27:29.100
Right? Because, like, I look. All the b cash deals have all come out of the woodwork.
321
00:27:31.335 --> 00:27:36.315
Like, I it's it's it feels very 2017 in terms of FIFA on Twitter right now.
322
00:27:39.909 --> 00:27:41.850
I don't know if they're using it to,
323
00:27:42.470 --> 00:27:49.095
at least for, like, maybe the altcoin thing makes sense, but for the, like, fee like, bumping the fees up so then they could,
324
00:27:50.595 --> 00:27:53.095
claim that. I don't think that makes too much sense because,
325
00:27:53.475 --> 00:27:57.640
you know, they're, like, with like, they're losing, like, you know, like, it's been, what,
326
00:27:58.179 --> 00:28:00.440
4 or 5 days worth of mining revenue.
327
00:28:00.820 --> 00:28:06.805
I don't know if the mempool will get fill enough for them to get that back if they turn them back on right now.
328
00:28:07.265 --> 00:28:09.365
But what if they turn them back on, like
329
00:28:10.305 --> 00:28:12.405
like, 5 days before the target?
330
00:28:13.009 --> 00:28:18.789
They still get some of that fee revenue. There's still gonna be a massive backlog. They get, like, a 25%
331
00:28:19.090 --> 00:28:21.429
reduction or 20% reduction in difficulty.
332
00:28:23.554 --> 00:28:31.414
I mean, this is why the difficulty adjustment's so long. Right? So it can't be easily gained. But if you have 40% of the hash, maybe there is a gaming mechanism.
333
00:28:34.410 --> 00:28:35.549
Yeah. Yeah.
334
00:28:36.490 --> 00:28:40.990
Yeah. And there's probably some math equation you can figure out to calculate if you can, but
335
00:28:41.835 --> 00:28:46.414
it's all like no. It's very hard to, predict what's gonna happen and, like,
336
00:28:47.355 --> 00:28:52.640
you know, it could pay off, I guess, but I don't know. That'd be kind of a a weird bet to make.
337
00:28:53.180 --> 00:28:58.480
Yeah. I mean, my guess yeah. Go on. Go on, Evan. Oh, I I just came up with a an even better conspiracy
338
00:28:58.805 --> 00:29:01.305
theory out of Who does that? You just said. So,
339
00:29:02.485 --> 00:29:05.225
I think that the minors are colluding,
340
00:29:06.299 --> 00:29:07.360
to push everyone
341
00:29:08.139 --> 00:29:08.639
onto,
342
00:29:10.299 --> 00:29:11.200
Lightning Network.
343
00:29:11.580 --> 00:29:14.240
Or maybe Block's to upgrade them. It's
344
00:29:14.684 --> 00:29:17.745
it's Alex Bosworth. He has ties to China,
345
00:29:18.924 --> 00:29:21.345
and he just wants to make those routing fees.
346
00:29:21.860 --> 00:29:23.160
That's that's my period.
347
00:29:23.540 --> 00:29:27.640
Blockstream paid them to get them on to to get people to use liquid now.
348
00:29:28.580 --> 00:29:29.860
Yeah. Those lick those,
349
00:29:30.515 --> 00:29:32.535
those lizards, they have they have pulp,
350
00:29:33.235 --> 00:29:34.855
so gotta watch out for them.
351
00:29:36.355 --> 00:29:40.669
Yeah. I mean, just to be clear here, I think I mean, we're supposed to keep that in secret. What the hell?
352
00:29:41.370 --> 00:29:43.470
I don't know. Samsung's gonna be pissed.
353
00:29:47.065 --> 00:29:48.685
Just to be clear here, I think,
354
00:29:49.625 --> 00:29:50.765
the first one
355
00:29:52.585 --> 00:29:53.885
the the state sponsored,
356
00:29:55.260 --> 00:29:57.200
confirms thing is that's bullshit.
357
00:29:58.300 --> 00:30:00.560
That's just a weird bullish slant to make.
358
00:30:01.020 --> 00:30:02.000
A state attack,
359
00:30:02.625 --> 00:30:03.445
probably bullshit.
360
00:30:03.985 --> 00:30:14.790
It's just something to keep in mind. Like, if you were going to attack it using a hash rate kind of attack, I think that's how you would do it. You would just pull a lot of hash. You that's how you would see the first set of the attack. So I'm kinda curious.
361
00:30:15.570 --> 00:30:22.975
And then the third part is, you know, I also think is is is probably a fucking stretch, but it's just an interesting thing to think about just because
362
00:30:23.355 --> 00:30:34.150
that like, 6 months ago when it happened to the rainy season thing and we were just all told the rainy season thing, like, that was the first time we were ever told the rainy season thing. They just pretended like that was, like, the thing that happens every 6 months. Like, I had never
363
00:30:35.030 --> 00:30:36.890
right? Like, we had we had never
364
00:30:37.265 --> 00:30:39.125
seen a drawdown that hard,
365
00:30:41.105 --> 00:30:48.270
and it was just weird, like, everyone's just, like, oh, yeah. Yeah. That's just that's just what happens every 6 months, like, all the miners just, like, put their stuff in trucks and drive it over.
366
00:30:50.010 --> 00:30:54.830
But, so that was just my adversarial thinking. And then the last but not least,
367
00:30:55.895 --> 00:30:56.395
the
368
00:30:57.575 --> 00:31:02.795
would you guys agree that if you're, like, a big player and you're doing major transactions, like, you know, maybe
369
00:31:03.549 --> 00:31:05.090
maybe require more confirmations
370
00:31:05.390 --> 00:31:06.210
before you,
371
00:31:07.150 --> 00:31:07.970
settle things
372
00:31:08.270 --> 00:31:17.255
just because, you know, you have all this hash that's, like, kind of unaccounted for out of nowhere in a single difficulty adjustment. Is that, like, a a safe advice, or is that just over paranoid?
373
00:31:18.710 --> 00:31:25.450
I think that's safe advice. I know there's, like, some papers that have been written that's, like, you know, in theory, you want 51%
374
00:31:25.910 --> 00:31:27.590
attack to attack. But,
375
00:31:28.365 --> 00:31:36.945
you know, there's some, like, games you could play that you could only use, like, 30 or 40% and still, like, effectively attack the network. So, yeah, you know, wait for
376
00:31:37.279 --> 00:31:41.059
6 confirmations instead of 1, and, you know, that's probably a better idea.
377
00:31:41.919 --> 00:31:45.860
Yeah. It's it's nice that we always have this mechanism built in. Like, you count the blocks,
378
00:31:46.605 --> 00:31:47.985
to, you know, calculate
379
00:31:48.365 --> 00:31:53.965
how much security you want. So it's nice that everyone can at least adjust that, depending on their,
380
00:31:54.365 --> 00:31:55.185
risk threshold.
381
00:31:56.010 --> 00:31:56.510
So,
382
00:31:56.890 --> 00:31:58.830
Evan, I'm happy I have you here.
383
00:32:01.210 --> 00:32:05.835
There was I mean, Catan famously said that he would die on the hill for 1 shot per bite.
384
00:32:06.875 --> 00:32:08.735
Narrator, he died on the hill.
385
00:32:09.434 --> 00:32:10.815
You in November,
386
00:32:11.195 --> 00:32:11.695
you,
387
00:32:12.794 --> 00:32:16.769
said to him that you would ride or die with him, one sapper bite forever.
388
00:32:17.630 --> 00:32:19.950
Mhmm. I I I just wanna, like
389
00:32:20.590 --> 00:32:25.775
because I wanna check my bias a little bit because I've been the opposite way. I've been, you know, feeling fee FOMO
390
00:32:26.235 --> 00:32:28.335
for fucking a year and a half now.
391
00:32:29.035 --> 00:32:41.120
I'm like, fees are gonna happen. This is one of the reasons I've been so outspoken about CoinJoin, about, you know, learning about Coin Control, learning about lightning, getting your lightning channels open. Like, people have, like, their lightning channels open right now are are they're good to go.
392
00:32:41.685 --> 00:32:44.185
But it's it's hard to do this in a high fee environment.
393
00:32:46.325 --> 00:32:47.225
This is definitely
394
00:32:47.525 --> 00:32:49.705
a a weird kind of outlier
395
00:32:50.550 --> 00:32:54.330
in terms of this much hash leaving the network at once. I I don't really remember,
396
00:32:55.990 --> 00:33:03.135
except for maybe 6 months ago when we were told about the rainy season thing, anywhere close to this much hash going off in a single difficulty adjustment.
397
00:33:05.275 --> 00:33:06.735
Is is this the start
398
00:33:07.100 --> 00:33:11.919
of the next major sustained fee cycle? Like, we haven't seen the mempool clear
399
00:33:12.299 --> 00:33:13.200
this whole year.
400
00:33:13.659 --> 00:33:17.335
It has not cleared yet this whole year. Is this kind of,
401
00:33:18.675 --> 00:33:25.095
the straw that breaks the camel's back and and it starts, like, this next sustained fee market, or, you know, what do you what do you think happens?
402
00:33:26.390 --> 00:33:28.490
I mean, I that's assuming that,
403
00:33:29.190 --> 00:33:31.610
you know, our drawdown in the bear market,
404
00:33:31.910 --> 00:33:34.410
as far as transaction count, at least, I guess,
405
00:33:34.865 --> 00:33:40.245
isn't so severe. So I would say that we're still gonna have this crazy fee environment
406
00:33:41.105 --> 00:33:42.965
for the next, let's say,
407
00:33:43.265 --> 00:33:45.540
11 months or so, at least. Right?
408
00:33:46.080 --> 00:33:51.140
But then, you know, the next couple of years, who's to say it doesn't clear out a couple times at least?
409
00:33:51.520 --> 00:33:56.865
So my my point is that, you know, over time, these fees, they are gonna trend upwards.
410
00:33:57.804 --> 00:34:01.184
This is sort of gonna become the normal in our bull markets,
411
00:34:01.804 --> 00:34:02.705
but I
412
00:34:03.110 --> 00:34:04.649
haven't quite accepted that.
413
00:34:05.590 --> 00:34:21.100
At least, I don't think that we're not gonna see, like, low fee rates again. I I I expect sometime late next year, middle next year, we'll probably see 1 and 2, Satoshi per v byte blocks. Well, when do you think when do you think that when do you think 1 sat per byte is gonna clear again?
414
00:34:21.960 --> 00:34:25.580
I don't know. Probably not till March or April of next year.
415
00:34:26.125 --> 00:34:28.705
I feel like this bull market is just gonna you so bearish?
416
00:34:29.805 --> 00:34:31.425
I'm bearish still. Right?
417
00:34:32.205 --> 00:34:36.890
Yeah. I mean, I we'll see. I think it I think what do you think? What do you think, Ben?
418
00:34:40.310 --> 00:35:06.695
Yeah. I kind of echo what Evan says. Like, previously, we were, you know, like, you could get, like, a 5 sapper biden on a weekend sometimes and, like but otherwise during the week, it was only going up. So we're gonna have to, like, get many weekends in again to, like, have that negative pressure to, like, clear some of the swim pool. And then and then every week during this bull market, it's gonna fill back up again. So, I don't know. Probably till, like, 6 months into the next bear market or something, it'll actually clear.
419
00:35:07.235 --> 00:35:11.335
But we'll see. To the people watching our video feed right now,
420
00:35:12.410 --> 00:35:14.430
you can see the 1 year chart,
421
00:35:17.210 --> 00:35:17.710
and
422
00:35:18.250 --> 00:35:20.510
that's a pretty crazy 1 year chart. I mean,
423
00:35:21.195 --> 00:35:22.495
that just looks like
424
00:35:24.395 --> 00:35:30.500
I don't do I might is that my bias showing that I'm looking at this and I'm just like, it's gonna be even crazier than 2017,
425
00:35:31.039 --> 00:35:38.445
like, in terms of in terms of SaaS per byte fees. And let's forget about USD fees. People get trapped in this idea of talking about fees in USD.
426
00:35:39.224 --> 00:35:41.165
Fees in USD matter way less,
427
00:35:41.865 --> 00:35:47.480
than fees as a sat per byte. This chart is sapper byte, and the reason is is because your UTXOs are in sats.
428
00:35:47.780 --> 00:35:52.440
Right? So if if you have a if you have a UTXO that's 500,000
429
00:35:52.900 --> 00:35:53.400
sats,
430
00:35:54.015 --> 00:35:54.835
you don't care
431
00:35:55.215 --> 00:36:06.850
what the USD cost to move it is. You care what the SATs cost to move it percentage that you have to pay to move that, and we have this theory we have this theory. We have this concept called dust, right, which is when that fee
432
00:36:07.230 --> 00:36:09.250
in SaaS goes above the UTXO
433
00:36:09.550 --> 00:36:10.050
value.
434
00:36:11.875 --> 00:36:17.395
So, I mean, I look at this, and I'm just like, fuck. But I've just been saying that for a year and a half, so maybe that's just,
435
00:36:18.035 --> 00:36:19.575
maybe that's just a bias talking.
436
00:36:20.200 --> 00:36:22.380
Yeah. It's a scary looking graph. Yeah.
437
00:36:23.319 --> 00:36:28.859
I probably agree on that. What more can I can I say on that? You know, hopefully, things cool off. But
438
00:36:29.355 --> 00:36:31.695
like I said, probably not till,
439
00:36:32.395 --> 00:36:35.135
you know, next year, April at least. And
440
00:36:36.200 --> 00:36:39.180
so, yeah, I mean, that that's got some pretty broad repercussions
441
00:36:39.800 --> 00:36:40.700
in the ecosystem,
442
00:36:41.160 --> 00:36:43.980
not even just with people trying to send transactions, but
443
00:36:44.444 --> 00:36:50.305
spills into lightning and people opening up channels. It spills into coin join and people mixing their coins.
444
00:36:51.960 --> 00:36:55.020
You know, it it's a big problem if this is a sustained
445
00:36:55.400 --> 00:36:55.900
thing.
446
00:36:57.240 --> 00:37:03.355
Yeah. We're we're gonna get to that and then go. Yeah? I I pulled up the all time chart on my computer, and,
447
00:37:04.075 --> 00:37:06.175
we're about, like, half of what the 2017
448
00:37:06.555 --> 00:37:13.109
high was. So but we're, like, consistently here where this is there, like, you know, it lasted for, like, a week or 2. So
449
00:37:13.730 --> 00:37:17.985
What are you using for the all time? Yeah. I'll put up in the chat for you.
450
00:37:18.685 --> 00:37:20.305
I'll pull it up on the video.
451
00:37:21.405 --> 00:37:23.165
Oh, yeah. Of course. This one, the OG,
452
00:37:23.485 --> 00:37:23.985
mempool.
453
00:37:24.870 --> 00:37:32.810
So just to make it clear for the freaks, when people say mempool, what they really mean is every individual node basically has a waiting list of transactions
454
00:37:34.714 --> 00:37:37.214
in their individual mempool. There is no
455
00:37:37.515 --> 00:37:38.255
the mempool.
456
00:37:38.635 --> 00:37:47.150
Mhmm. But most mempools of well connected nodes should look the same. So what we do is, you know, there's a couple of hosted sites that have,
457
00:37:48.090 --> 00:37:50.430
these mempool charts that show their own mempool,
458
00:37:51.175 --> 00:37:54.715
And now what's really cool is because we have these software packages like raspyblitz,
459
00:37:56.615 --> 00:37:57.675
Umbrel, whatnot,
460
00:37:58.135 --> 00:37:59.595
you can actually easily,
461
00:38:00.660 --> 00:38:08.040
you know, you use your own instance, use your own node to to view the mempool, but we tend to go to these hosted sites just because it's convenient.
462
00:38:10.885 --> 00:38:13.944
Yeah. Definitely. And and what's the default limit for,
463
00:38:14.325 --> 00:38:16.665
cores, mempools, or something like 300? It's
464
00:38:17.045 --> 00:38:18.819
300 megs. Gotcha.
465
00:38:19.119 --> 00:38:22.020
I fucking can't take a screenshot of here because he he wants
466
00:38:23.359 --> 00:38:24.660
he's showing my,
467
00:38:27.605 --> 00:38:30.825
well, it is what it is. You're not gonna see a screenshot of the
468
00:38:31.445 --> 00:38:35.490
of the full the full mempool out to 2017. But as,
469
00:38:36.029 --> 00:38:46.924
as Ben said, it does seem like we're kinda half, but, also, Ben, like, that was, like, a very quick hit that, like, Roger Ver and Co and and and Bitmain kinda, like I felt like they manufactured.
470
00:38:49.224 --> 00:38:49.724
And
471
00:38:50.470 --> 00:38:55.770
per our previous conversation, we're agreeing that this isn't manufactured right now. Right? We're this is not an attack.
472
00:38:56.309 --> 00:38:56.809
2017
473
00:38:57.109 --> 00:38:59.475
was was started by an attack. Is this an attack?
474
00:39:00.515 --> 00:39:33.565
I don't think I think, like, I think this is giving more credence to, like because, like, a lot of people speculate that was an attack or some people, like, no. It's just, you know, the end of the bull market and everyone going crazy sending transactions. But I think this is kinda giving credence to that because, you know, back then, it was, like, thousands of, like, you know, 1,000 sat per vBuy transactions and stuff like that. And, you know, it just looks stupid versus now, like, you know, since blocks are, like, all consistently, like, around the same fee rate, it's just extraordinarily high. So I think this, like, gives a lot more, you know, weight to, like, what other people are saying. You know, that wasn't a tech, and this is, like, what an actual real fee market is turning out
475
00:39:37.244 --> 00:39:39.505
to be. Yeah. I tend I tend to agree.
476
00:39:39.964 --> 00:39:40.464
So
477
00:39:41.440 --> 00:39:47.940
I wanna dive into, like, the implications of the sustained fee market because I do kind of think that's what comes next.
478
00:39:51.315 --> 00:39:55.174
Before we get there so there's a couple different scenarios of
479
00:39:55.475 --> 00:39:56.855
there's a couple different scenarios,
480
00:39:57.940 --> 00:40:03.240
for people that are that are listening, and and we talk about actionable. Right? First scenario is,
481
00:40:04.925 --> 00:40:08.225
there was they received a transaction and sitting in the mempool
482
00:40:08.525 --> 00:40:10.225
sitting in mempools and it's unconfirmed.
483
00:40:10.765 --> 00:40:11.265
Right?
484
00:40:12.640 --> 00:40:19.619
What what what should that what should that person do? There it it shows in their wallet as unconfirmed. They're waiting for the transaction to confirm as a receiver.
485
00:40:22.545 --> 00:40:26.945
It depends. If you trust your counterpart, you can just wait. If not, you can,
486
00:40:27.985 --> 00:40:34.610
you can spend it, like, back to yourself at a higher fee rate And, just make sure that the average fee rate of the 2 transactions
487
00:40:35.550 --> 00:40:39.410
is, high enough to get into, like, the next block, whatever block target you want.
488
00:40:39.755 --> 00:40:41.455
That's that's all pays for pairing,
489
00:40:41.915 --> 00:40:49.710
Yeah. Yeah. Most wallets, if you have coin control, you can do this manually. Some wallets like, blue wallet even just has a bump fee button you can use. So,
490
00:40:50.970 --> 00:40:51.869
should be doable.
491
00:40:52.330 --> 00:41:00.815
Most wallets don't have coin control, Ben. If your wallet doesn't have coin control, this is a horrible for your privacy because it will link everything in your wallet.
492
00:41:01.275 --> 00:41:02.735
But you can send all
493
00:41:03.435 --> 00:41:17.910
you can send all to your own address. That's that's child pays for parent. Child pays for parent is this idea that you take an unconfirmed transaction, you send it to yourself with a higher fee. The combined fee is what a minor cares about because they get both at the same time.
494
00:41:18.305 --> 00:41:18.805
Right?
495
00:41:21.185 --> 00:41:21.665
And,
496
00:41:22.145 --> 00:41:29.960
so then the other scenario oh, and by the way, to the to the freaks that are watching, as you can see, I have the mempool, the chart I was trying to get up,
497
00:41:30.600 --> 00:41:40.525
where you can see the previous 2 spikes that happened or, I guess, 3 spikes that happened in the 2017 cycle, and you can compare it to kind of the lead up and this spike that we're seeing now.
498
00:41:41.465 --> 00:41:43.885
It does seem like when you look at the actual
499
00:41:44.265 --> 00:41:45.005
fee bans,
500
00:41:45.650 --> 00:41:47.430
that this does seem a bit healthier,
501
00:41:47.890 --> 00:41:54.870
that people are more low time preference. Right? A lot of the transactions that that seem to be in the mempools are lower fees, just people willing to wait.
502
00:41:56.835 --> 00:41:58.055
As Evan said earlier,
503
00:41:58.595 --> 00:42:01.255
the the default in core is 300 megs.
504
00:42:02.035 --> 00:42:03.175
So that mean,
505
00:42:04.210 --> 00:42:04.710
if
506
00:42:05.810 --> 00:42:06.050
the
507
00:42:06.770 --> 00:42:16.025
and that that's the 300 megs of the highest fee transaction. So if your fee falls underneath that range, you will get dropped from mempools, and you will either have to rebroadcast
508
00:42:16.565 --> 00:42:17.305
your transaction,
509
00:42:18.325 --> 00:42:22.790
or resend your transaction with with a higher fee, or resend your transaction at a later date.
510
00:42:24.390 --> 00:42:30.570
The other key thing to keep in mind is that core defaults to a 2 week time limit on transactions
511
00:42:30.950 --> 00:42:31.450
in
512
00:42:32.305 --> 00:42:33.285
individual mempools.
513
00:42:33.825 --> 00:42:40.965
So now we get to the next piece of question. I've sent a Bitcoin transaction, and it's unconfirmed. What can I do
514
00:42:42.690 --> 00:42:43.589
to get it confirmed?
515
00:42:43.890 --> 00:42:45.029
And if you wait
516
00:42:45.410 --> 00:42:50.150
approximately 2 weeks, it should be dropped from mempools, and then you should be able to resend that transaction
517
00:42:51.434 --> 00:42:54.974
with a higher fee or whatever fee you want to send it with. Now
518
00:42:56.234 --> 00:42:59.055
let's say you don't wanna wait. What should that user do?
519
00:43:02.620 --> 00:43:09.555
You can do the same thing in child pays for parent it, but, in this case, you need to have received a change output.
520
00:43:10.175 --> 00:43:16.115
So if you sent, like, a full, like, UTXO to someone, you can't do this. And then your only fallback then is,
521
00:43:16.650 --> 00:43:17.790
replaced by fee,
522
00:43:18.250 --> 00:43:21.470
where you just basically redo the transaction but with a higher fee.
523
00:43:22.890 --> 00:43:26.085
But some you need to signal with this for your first transaction,
524
00:43:26.944 --> 00:43:29.444
and auto wallets don't really expose this. So
525
00:43:30.280 --> 00:43:33.340
need to be make sure you do like, know what you're doing here.
526
00:43:33.800 --> 00:43:37.900
But, yeah, it's something like Bitcoin Core or Electrum will let you do this, but
527
00:43:38.645 --> 00:43:41.845
I don't know. Otherwise, don't. Yeah. Make sure you check your settings,
528
00:43:42.405 --> 00:43:45.305
to make sure that enable RBF is toggled on.
529
00:43:45.765 --> 00:43:48.260
It's good idea to have it on usually.
530
00:43:49.280 --> 00:44:06.550
I think we have a lot of freaks here that might think, like, they understand this stuff. I think it's but we also have a lot of freaks that don't, and I think it's really important that we cover it. But most importantly, I think, the demographic of this show is is uncle Jims and future uncle Jims.
531
00:44:06.850 --> 00:44:12.710
And I'm sure you guys are all getting these questions. So I think it's you know, in these types of situations, it's really good that we work through this stuff together
532
00:44:13.994 --> 00:44:18.174
because, I mean, my phone has just been blown up by people confused by this stuff.
533
00:44:19.275 --> 00:44:22.815
So, I mean, a a key aspect here is if you're sending to yourself,
534
00:44:23.700 --> 00:44:24.680
you just chill.
535
00:44:25.140 --> 00:44:33.000
There's no funds at risk. It doesn't matter. If you trust your counterparty, period, obviously, you trust yourself, but you trust your counterparty, period, you just chill. Right? Mhmm.
536
00:44:33.365 --> 00:44:41.065
Wait for difficulty adjustment, especially in this particular period where where you you have this difficulty adjustment causing a short term high fees.
537
00:44:42.950 --> 00:44:50.089
What else did I wanna talk about here? Do we have any other nuances that that people should know about in terms of transaction fees?
538
00:44:50.445 --> 00:44:54.625
Like, how should you how should you choose your transaction fee? I'll pull up the
539
00:44:55.405 --> 00:45:00.065
you know, first of all, this is, like, all super technical stuff. I know people get a little bit
540
00:45:00.510 --> 00:45:04.690
glassy eyed when we talk about this technical stuff, so I'm gonna talk about a bullish thing really quickly.
541
00:45:05.310 --> 00:45:06.530
The last 3 months,
542
00:45:06.830 --> 00:45:12.915
we've had all time high transaction volumes on Bitcoin when measured in, shitty money in US dollars. So,
543
00:45:13.295 --> 00:45:13.795
whoo,
544
00:45:14.175 --> 00:45:14.994
killing it.
545
00:45:15.375 --> 00:45:15.875
Okay.
546
00:45:16.255 --> 00:45:16.755
Now,
547
00:45:18.490 --> 00:45:20.190
let's get back to the nitty gritty.
548
00:45:21.690 --> 00:45:22.190
What,
549
00:45:22.890 --> 00:45:25.470
what was where was I at there? You were asking
550
00:45:26.055 --> 00:45:30.555
best way to pick your fee. How do we pick our fees? Yeah. Yeah.
551
00:45:32.535 --> 00:45:35.435
So yeah. So I I like to use 2 tools right now
552
00:45:35.859 --> 00:45:36.920
for picking that.
553
00:45:37.700 --> 00:45:40.119
So one is the lovely mempool.space
554
00:45:40.820 --> 00:45:42.440
that we had up there earlier.
555
00:45:43.615 --> 00:45:46.835
Yeah. There it is. So if you take a look at the blocks,
556
00:45:48.575 --> 00:45:50.755
the top number with the tilde
557
00:45:51.135 --> 00:45:52.355
tells you the average
558
00:45:53.200 --> 00:45:54.500
fee for each transaction.
559
00:45:55.119 --> 00:45:59.539
And then right underneath that in the yellow, it tells you the range of the fees.
560
00:46:00.055 --> 00:46:03.275
So the cheapest transactions in blocks, 679-946
561
00:46:05.415 --> 00:46:07.115
were as low as 274
562
00:46:07.495 --> 00:46:08.475
SaaS per vByte,
563
00:46:09.070 --> 00:46:11.390
and they also went as high as,
564
00:46:11.710 --> 00:46:12.210
3,462
565
00:46:13.310 --> 00:46:14.290
SaaS per VBITE.
566
00:46:14.990 --> 00:46:15.490
So,
567
00:46:15.845 --> 00:46:16.345
typically,
568
00:46:17.125 --> 00:46:23.385
you can do 2 things. You can take a look at the last, you know, 6 to 12 blocks and see what the low
569
00:46:24.309 --> 00:46:25.369
average was.
570
00:46:26.950 --> 00:46:30.170
So right now, if you wanna get it in, you gotta set it to, like, 180
571
00:46:30.765 --> 00:46:34.545
pretty much at least, but we're trending towards higher fees.
572
00:46:36.525 --> 00:46:41.430
But then, there's also a tool built into mempool space that tells you what you should be paying,
573
00:46:41.809 --> 00:46:43.750
low priority, medium priority,
574
00:46:44.210 --> 00:46:51.375
and high priority transactions. That's below the blocks on the left side right there, and it gives you both the sat per v byte and the dollar equivalent.
575
00:46:52.315 --> 00:46:57.055
So that's really good. I also personally like what the fee
576
00:46:57.780 --> 00:46:58.920
dot I o.
577
00:46:59.220 --> 00:47:00.440
It's a really good,
578
00:47:00.980 --> 00:47:03.240
Bitcoin fee rate estimation table.
579
00:47:04.260 --> 00:47:06.680
It's all colored, and it tells you, okay,
580
00:47:07.175 --> 00:47:11.035
what your time frame is from half hour to 24 hours,
581
00:47:11.495 --> 00:47:13.195
and then what percentage
582
00:47:13.975 --> 00:47:21.330
of, guarantee do you need that this thing is gonna go in? So the first block is 5% chance and the last one's 95. And,
583
00:47:21.950 --> 00:47:25.490
you know, you typically figure out what your time frame is, and
584
00:47:26.255 --> 00:47:27.395
you pick what
585
00:47:27.855 --> 00:47:29.315
amount of risk you wanna accept.
586
00:47:29.695 --> 00:47:30.835
If you pick that 95%
587
00:47:31.135 --> 00:47:38.660
block all the way to the right, yeah, good chances are that they'll go through, but there's still no guarantee as the difficulty can,
588
00:47:39.599 --> 00:47:45.865
you know, tumble the horn. Away from you. Yeah. It can run away from you, which is why it's really, really important
589
00:47:46.485 --> 00:47:47.545
to use RBF
590
00:47:47.925 --> 00:47:48.665
if possible
591
00:47:49.020 --> 00:47:59.715
when possible. So would you so I've, like, talked about this in the past, and people just, like, shoot shoot me. And I think this is the only discussion you can really have in a fucking sustained fee market, like, a actual high fee market.
592
00:48:01.295 --> 00:48:08.809
As far as I'm concerned, there's really no there's no there's there's either I'm willing to wait or I want it now.
593
00:48:09.349 --> 00:48:12.250
If I want it now, I'm gonna pay the top level fee.
594
00:48:12.685 --> 00:48:19.185
Like, the fee that I get in literally at the next block or 2 blocks, like, max 3 blocks, because otherwise it's gonna run away from me.
595
00:48:19.885 --> 00:48:20.385
Otherwise,
596
00:48:21.170 --> 00:48:25.589
I'm using RBF replaced by fee. You gotta signal that ahead of time,
597
00:48:26.290 --> 00:48:28.230
and then you're putting in a
598
00:48:29.075 --> 00:48:35.335
an aggressively low fee and kind of waiting and seeing how it works. Or or maybe, I guess, you go,
599
00:48:35.880 --> 00:48:36.380
like,
600
00:48:36.680 --> 00:48:41.340
like, is as like, what I'm trying to say is, like, is there anyone right now in this fee market going,
601
00:48:41.720 --> 00:48:44.300
oh, I'm gonna set, like, a nice 130
602
00:48:44.600 --> 00:48:46.435
sat byte per fee 130
603
00:48:47.055 --> 00:48:48.435
sat per byte fee
604
00:48:49.535 --> 00:48:52.115
to confirm in 5 to 7 days.
605
00:48:54.130 --> 00:49:04.085
Like, maybe if you have someone like a contractor who's invoicing you and and they don't necessarily need it right away, but it's, like, sort of a niche case. You know?
606
00:49:04.785 --> 00:49:07.444
Yeah. The important thing to take away from this is
607
00:49:08.065 --> 00:49:18.270
you don't really know. All you can do is look back at the past data, you know, looking back at the last couple of blocks, last day, last week, and, you know, just make the best educated,
608
00:49:19.425 --> 00:49:21.285
you know, guess from there.
609
00:49:23.985 --> 00:49:27.365
Ben, you have thoughts here? Yeah. I mean, it's kinda,
610
00:49:29.220 --> 00:49:32.119
yeah, I mean, it's kind of like what what Evan's saying. Like, either
611
00:49:32.819 --> 00:49:39.924
you kind of have to do, like, in a binary way. We're either trying to get into the next block or, you know, maybe just, like, wanna wait and, you know,
612
00:49:41.184 --> 00:49:48.220
just say, like, oh, I'm gonna throw out a 20 SAP provide thing, and hopefully, it gets confirmed in 2 weeks. So, like, you know, if you're sending, like, cold storage or something.
613
00:49:48.760 --> 00:49:49.160
But,
614
00:49:49.720 --> 00:49:54.940
otherwise, yeah, like, especially, like, right now, the fee like, I did a transaction, like,
615
00:49:56.235 --> 00:50:03.750
a few days ago, and I did, like, you know I've used mempool. Spaces hour long, like, 6 block tar target. And
616
00:50:04.210 --> 00:50:05.510
they gave me a 75,
617
00:50:06.050 --> 00:50:10.710
SAP per byte thing, and then, you know, that now that's 30 blocks away from getting it submitted.
618
00:50:11.250 --> 00:50:12.555
So, like, you know
619
00:50:13.095 --> 00:50:21.460
and it's all he ran away from me. So stuff like that where it's just like you have to wait it out. And, you know, it might it probably will confirm eventually, but who knows when.
620
00:50:22.980 --> 00:50:24.599
But that was just to yourself anyway.
621
00:50:25.300 --> 00:50:32.545
Yeah. So it doesn't really matter if it Yeah. Exactly. You don't have to worry about it. So I mean, like, so, like, things like RBF,
622
00:50:33.405 --> 00:50:33.905
lightning,
623
00:50:35.085 --> 00:50:36.145
liquid maybe,
624
00:50:36.605 --> 00:50:50.480
like, these things get you know, part of the cool part about the fee market is that they get adopted because people get burned in these situations. Right? They end up in this they have to people are, you know, humans, and this is just how they learn.
625
00:50:51.565 --> 00:50:56.705
So they're not ready for this fee market, and they're gonna need to prepare for the future.
626
00:50:58.750 --> 00:51:01.569
Now there's an argument, and I kinda wanna discuss it,
627
00:51:02.030 --> 00:51:05.410
but we'll discuss this later, so I'm not even gonna bring it up yet.
628
00:51:05.869 --> 00:51:06.369
The
629
00:51:08.505 --> 00:51:12.925
if this we're we're we're gonna assume let's assume that we're talking,
630
00:51:15.330 --> 00:51:17.590
this is a nice little temporary bump.
631
00:51:18.130 --> 00:51:24.765
Matt is extremely biased, and he's just had fee FOMO for a year and a half, and he thinks, like, fees are gonna go out of control.
632
00:51:25.065 --> 00:51:34.010
But in, like, 3 weeks, 4 weeks, we get, like, 2 difficulty adjustments, and we're back down to, like, on Sundays, you're able to get, like, a 7 sapper bite through, a 12 sapper bite through,
633
00:51:35.530 --> 00:51:43.605
which quite frankly, you should be happy you're able to get those through. Fucking maximalist waiting for 1 sapper bite. How do how do the freaks prepare?
634
00:51:44.145 --> 00:51:45.365
How do they get ready
635
00:51:45.825 --> 00:51:47.045
for the inevitable
636
00:51:47.585 --> 00:51:50.485
increase in fees in my opinion? Like, how do they,
637
00:51:51.590 --> 00:51:59.930
they they haven't you know, they've been listening to this show for this whole year, and they've been listening to rabbit hole recap tales from the crypt for over 2 years,
638
00:52:01.675 --> 00:52:04.734
and and that they didn't learn from that, but now
639
00:52:05.275 --> 00:52:08.655
they realize fees are gonna be really high. How do they prepare?
640
00:52:10.140 --> 00:52:17.585
Yes. But not in this difficulty adjustment. They should just sit tight for this difficulty adjustment. But after fees come back down, hopefully, how do they do it?
641
00:52:17.984 --> 00:52:23.605
So, listen, there's always going to be people that need to spend now, you know, or get their privacy now or whatnot. But,
642
00:52:24.065 --> 00:52:30.329
you know, I'm in a position where I have a great sense of relief because my coins that I need to spend
643
00:52:30.710 --> 00:52:36.295
on chain are already coined. And, you know, I have them ready to run through post mix tools or in cold storage.
644
00:52:36.835 --> 00:52:39.095
And then as far as, you know,
645
00:52:39.450 --> 00:52:44.430
more instant transactions, I have all my Lightning channels open. I have, you know, ample,
646
00:52:45.530 --> 00:52:49.185
capital locked up in those channels to deploy on Lightning Network
647
00:52:49.905 --> 00:52:57.365
if I need. So as much as it's an inconvenience, I don't get to you know, if I wanna open more channels, I gotta eat the fees. If I wanna coin join
648
00:52:57.750 --> 00:52:58.410
more coins,
649
00:52:58.869 --> 00:53:00.010
I gotta eat the fees.
650
00:53:01.109 --> 00:53:14.849
You know, I I don't really need to do those things. Like, oh, I could probably top it out until next year when the fees go start going down again. So the only really thing you can do is when fees are low, take advantage of it. Open your channels,
651
00:53:15.230 --> 00:53:16.130
do your mixes,
652
00:53:16.830 --> 00:53:20.450
do your, you know, on chain management, whatever that means to you.
653
00:53:20.914 --> 00:53:23.494
And, you know, don't don't let the opportunities
654
00:53:24.115 --> 00:53:29.710
where it does dip, but don't let them slip away from you. So start using stuff like WhatTheFee
655
00:53:30.730 --> 00:53:32.190
and, the mempool
656
00:53:32.650 --> 00:53:33.530
site from,
657
00:53:34.010 --> 00:53:36.670
from Johor or whatever his name is. Use mempool.space,
658
00:53:37.994 --> 00:53:40.654
and, you know, keep your eyes peeled on Sundays,
659
00:53:40.954 --> 00:53:43.375
you know, Sunday afternoon, Sunday evenings,
660
00:53:45.035 --> 00:53:47.535
typically when you see these things clear up.
661
00:53:48.220 --> 00:53:52.400
So, you know, if you're in Bitcoin, you should be in this thing for the long haul.
662
00:53:53.100 --> 00:53:53.600
So,
663
00:53:54.060 --> 00:53:59.845
you know, you gotta be making these plays when fees are low and when we're in bear markets, especially.
664
00:54:01.505 --> 00:54:06.329
Ben, what are your thoughts here? Yeah. I think, Evan had a really good point. Something
665
00:54:06.630 --> 00:54:07.130
that,
666
00:54:08.309 --> 00:54:12.410
you know, you can you can do but might not be recommended is consolidating UTXOs.
667
00:54:13.414 --> 00:54:17.914
Generally, you don't wanna use this with, coin joined funds, but, you know,
668
00:54:18.214 --> 00:54:31.365
maybe if you are coin joining your funds, it might make sense to just, you know, consolidate them into ones. Now it's cheaper to send, and then you don't have risk where, you know, half your funds become dust or something. So you wanna explain why that's horrible for your privacy?
669
00:54:32.385 --> 00:54:32.944
Yeah. Other
670
00:54:34.785 --> 00:54:36.484
Do you wanna explain why that's horrible?
671
00:54:37.470 --> 00:54:38.589
It's really bad if
672
00:54:40.029 --> 00:54:44.609
yeah. So if you're if you're doing a coin join and say, like, I have 10
673
00:54:45.605 --> 00:54:48.345
mix this through Wasabi or Samura or Joy Market,
674
00:54:48.885 --> 00:54:49.525
whatever, and,
675
00:54:50.805 --> 00:54:53.705
you do it. Now you have, like, all you have, like, a 100.1
676
00:54:54.810 --> 00:54:57.390
UTXOs. And then if you just recombine them,
677
00:54:57.770 --> 00:55:01.150
well, now they could just see, oh, okay. A 100 Bitcoin came in.
678
00:55:01.595 --> 00:55:06.255
They got all jumbled up. We don't know where it went. But then someone combined a a 100 or, you know, a 1000.1
679
00:55:06.955 --> 00:55:08.975
UTXOs back into a 100 Bitcoin.
680
00:55:09.280 --> 00:55:12.980
And then they just know, okay. That's the same guy. Like, it's like if you
681
00:55:13.440 --> 00:55:15.140
if everyone walked into a building
682
00:55:15.599 --> 00:55:23.735
and shuffled around Tats walked out, but, like, you're the only one guy with a red shirt on. Like, you know, they're gonna be like, okay. It was him anyways. He he's the only guy with the red shirt.
683
00:55:24.035 --> 00:55:24.535
So,
684
00:55:25.155 --> 00:55:32.850
you know, you need to be worried about, like, you know, you can't give any links from your your before coinage ring to after. And combining
685
00:55:33.310 --> 00:55:40.454
allows you to, like, find the amount and say, like, oh, this this amount happened before and after so they can, you know, correlate that to you.
686
00:55:42.194 --> 00:55:46.329
Yeah. Correlation and tax are, really tricky, especially with stuff like,
687
00:55:48.010 --> 00:55:49.390
atomic swaps and whatnot,
688
00:55:49.770 --> 00:55:52.030
timing analysis, and the amount analysis.
689
00:55:54.485 --> 00:55:55.625
So, yeah, I mean,
690
00:55:55.925 --> 00:55:58.985
the red shirt thing too is, like, a lot of these privacy tools,
691
00:56:00.599 --> 00:56:02.380
just in general, even outside of Bitcoin,
692
00:56:03.000 --> 00:56:13.335
they work better when you have the numbers on your side, when there's been more people wearing that red shirt. You know what I mean? Well, before we before we get to the private it's more it's bigger than privacy tools. Right? Like, if
693
00:56:13.795 --> 00:56:15.655
if you combine your transactions,
694
00:56:16.115 --> 00:56:27.305
if you combine so the single biggest driver of transaction fee burden, on chain fee burden, is how many transactions you have on the input side. Mhmm. So let's say you wanna send a transaction that's 500,000
695
00:56:27.685 --> 00:56:28.185
sats.
696
00:56:28.565 --> 00:56:29.065
Okay?
697
00:56:29.365 --> 00:56:31.305
If you have a single UTXO
698
00:56:31.765 --> 00:56:34.670
that is a 1,000,000 sats and you pay that 500,000
699
00:56:35.050 --> 00:56:39.390
SATs and you get a single change you get a single change output back,
700
00:56:40.330 --> 00:56:47.475
for the remainder 500,000 SATs, that is your minimal fee burden. That is the that is the estimated transaction fee
701
00:56:47.855 --> 00:56:48.355
that,
702
00:56:48.735 --> 00:56:50.835
when they show dollar amounts on mempool.space,
703
00:56:51.295 --> 00:56:56.740
that's what they're going by. Okay? That is on chain, that is the single cheapest way for you to make a transaction.
704
00:56:57.279 --> 00:57:01.115
The input side is where you have the highest cost,
705
00:57:01.735 --> 00:57:04.715
just straight up, the number of inputs. So that same 500,000
706
00:57:05.015 --> 00:57:11.410
sat transaction that you're making, if instead of making it with a single 1,000,000 sat input, you make it with a
707
00:57:11.950 --> 00:57:12.450
500,000
708
00:57:13.150 --> 00:57:23.635
sat inputs, you're gonna pay significantly more in fees. So the argument historically has been combine your UTXOs into as few UTXOs as possible, it reduces
709
00:57:24.095 --> 00:57:25.955
your future on chain fee burden.
710
00:57:27.039 --> 00:57:33.220
But you are obviously linking the ownership of all of those UTXO. So if I beat Ben
711
00:57:33.599 --> 00:57:34.819
in in poker,
712
00:57:35.315 --> 00:57:36.615
and then I went to BitDevs
713
00:57:37.315 --> 00:57:47.799
and, you know, someone paid me because they owed me for dinner, and then I had a KYC transaction that came into the wallet from, you know, Cash App or whatever KYC service, strike or something.
714
00:57:48.180 --> 00:57:49.160
And then you have,
715
00:57:50.500 --> 00:57:56.055
the non KYC, maybe you're mining or you could get through BISK, and you combine all of those together,
716
00:57:56.435 --> 00:58:00.695
anyone who looks on chain knows. If they know if they know one of those UTXOs,
717
00:58:01.235 --> 00:58:09.609
they know you own all of them. If Ben is looking at the chain, if Cash App is looking at the chain, they know the Cash App UTXO, and they know the Ben UTXO. Right?
718
00:58:09.910 --> 00:58:16.465
That that's the issue. And and when you when you look at the mainstream wallets, it show it as UTXOs.
719
00:58:17.245 --> 00:58:24.450
The mainstream wallets mostly show it as a single balance. It's not a single balance. You really have a bunch of little bills or UTXO's
720
00:58:24.750 --> 00:58:33.454
bills in terms of cash, like, all these UTXO's that are making up your wallet in the back end that you don't see if your wallet doesn't have coin control. This is why all wallets have coin control.
721
00:58:35.115 --> 00:58:35.615
Yep.
722
00:58:36.315 --> 00:58:38.095
You Matt, you nailed it. You irreparably
723
00:58:39.050 --> 00:58:40.190
link these transactions,
724
00:58:40.490 --> 00:58:41.230
these UTXOs
725
00:58:41.530 --> 00:58:43.710
together when you consolidate the outputs.
726
00:58:44.170 --> 00:58:51.424
And, Matt, some users, they have this misconception. They think, okay. Yeah. Sure. I'm gonna just consolidate my inputs,
727
00:58:51.964 --> 00:58:54.785
but I'm so clever. I'm gonna just throw it through CoinJoin.
728
00:58:55.085 --> 00:58:59.070
Can you explain to the freaks listening out there why that doesn't help you,
729
00:58:59.770 --> 00:59:00.490
in regards
730
00:59:00.810 --> 00:59:04.270
see there? And there's Nuance, like every other good thing in Bitcoin,
731
00:59:05.210 --> 00:59:07.725
is that it could help your forward privacy,
732
00:59:08.025 --> 00:59:14.845
but you've already linked the transactions before that happens. Right? You've already linked all those UTXOs as we said in the previous example.
733
00:59:15.560 --> 00:59:19.740
So you're hurting your privacy in that that that pre element,
734
00:59:20.200 --> 00:59:20.840
and then you're
735
00:59:21.880 --> 00:59:23.660
hopefully, if you if you
736
00:59:24.005 --> 00:59:31.465
if you use CoinJoin correctly, you're helping your privacy on the forward scenario. But, I mean, in a high fee environment, you're gonna be paying significantly in fees.
737
00:59:32.484 --> 00:59:33.305
So, I mean,
738
00:59:34.250 --> 00:59:34.750
the
739
00:59:35.690 --> 00:59:39.470
the single best thing you can do in today's world, which we didn't have in 2017,
740
00:59:40.250 --> 00:59:45.145
is start to get used to lightning and experimenting with lightning. Right? And and you you you kinda
741
00:59:45.525 --> 00:59:47.865
you you want you want to have your UTXOs
742
00:59:48.165 --> 00:59:48.985
in a position
743
00:59:49.420 --> 00:59:52.240
where you have the sufficient spending cash
744
00:59:52.940 --> 00:59:54.160
ready to go in lightning,
745
00:59:55.020 --> 01:00:02.915
without too much on chain fee burden for your cold storage, and, like, that's, like, kinda the ideal situation you wanna be in. The problem is
746
01:00:03.295 --> 01:00:03.795
is
747
01:00:05.390 --> 01:00:10.290
I I don't know if it's a problem or a feature. The the cool thing about this incentive structure
748
01:00:10.670 --> 01:00:15.295
is that users are naturally getting burned by fees, and then they learn and they try and be more
749
01:00:24.790 --> 01:00:28.490
If you don't do it efficiently, you're gonna pay more in fees and you're gonna have to learn.
750
01:00:29.109 --> 01:00:30.570
Now the problem is
751
01:00:32.150 --> 01:00:34.330
the problem is in a high fee environment,
752
01:00:35.335 --> 01:00:37.895
it becomes way more difficult, I think, for
753
01:00:38.935 --> 01:00:42.635
like, a sustained high fee environment, it becomes way more costly,
754
01:00:43.760 --> 01:00:45.540
expensive for for freaks,
755
01:00:46.480 --> 01:00:51.140
and painful for freaks to, like, try and, you know, learn these things. Like, I
756
01:00:51.835 --> 01:00:57.035
like, I've had very expensive lessons, and those expensive lessons happened at 5 SaaS per byte. Yeah.
757
01:00:57.914 --> 01:01:00.414
These lessons are gonna get even more expensive. Right?
758
01:01:01.290 --> 01:01:01.790
Absolutely.
759
01:01:02.970 --> 01:01:04.430
You know, as time goes on
760
01:01:04.810 --> 01:01:06.030
and number go up,
761
01:01:06.570 --> 01:01:09.230
your mistakes become even more costly. So
762
01:01:09.724 --> 01:01:12.224
better to get it done sooner than later. And,
763
01:01:12.765 --> 01:01:14.224
you know, if you're gonna
764
01:01:14.605 --> 01:01:17.240
have an expensive lesson, you know, learn from it.
765
01:01:17.720 --> 01:01:18.220
So
766
01:01:21.960 --> 01:01:27.445
Matt's just thinking back to all the fees. He's fucked up on Lightning and CoinJoint right
767
01:01:27.745 --> 01:01:28.885
now. On that note,
768
01:01:30.625 --> 01:01:32.245
the the infamous
769
01:01:33.100 --> 01:01:34.380
tails from the crypt node,
770
01:01:34.700 --> 01:01:36.480
TFTC stacking stats
771
01:01:36.940 --> 01:01:38.000
has been moved
772
01:01:38.540 --> 01:01:40.400
to significantly better hardware.
773
01:01:42.345 --> 01:01:42.845
Nice.
774
01:01:43.305 --> 01:01:46.685
It is now being sponsored by Nautocloud.
775
01:01:48.345 --> 01:01:49.485
So it is
776
01:01:50.240 --> 01:01:51.380
it is on Nautocloud,
777
01:01:53.039 --> 01:01:53.539
and
778
01:01:53.920 --> 01:01:55.460
it's super high performance,
779
01:01:56.319 --> 01:02:00.885
and the minimal channel size has been reduced to 500 1,000 sats.
780
01:02:01.785 --> 01:02:02.285
So,
781
01:02:03.265 --> 01:02:10.549
hopefully, it's not another expensive lesson for me. I think that is hopefully, it can be a sufficient minimum channel size, But any freaks
782
01:02:11.329 --> 01:02:12.710
who have been experimenting
783
01:02:13.410 --> 01:02:15.190
with Lightning might be aware
784
01:02:15.490 --> 01:02:17.990
that a lot of the large routing nodes
785
01:02:18.335 --> 01:02:19.875
have minimal channel sizes.
786
01:02:21.454 --> 01:02:22.275
A lot of them
787
01:02:22.815 --> 01:02:24.914
don't allow you to create channels
788
01:02:25.375 --> 01:02:26.755
that are lower than,
789
01:02:27.980 --> 01:02:34.880
4,000,000 Sats, which right now is over $2,000, which, you know, quite honestly, like, I'm just not fine with that.
790
01:02:36.095 --> 01:02:38.435
So what's really cool here is
791
01:02:38.895 --> 01:02:41.955
this node is a very well connected node.
792
01:02:43.480 --> 01:02:45.980
Bosworth has given it a a decent score.
793
01:02:46.360 --> 01:02:49.020
Okay? So our Bos score is pretty good,
794
01:02:49.960 --> 01:02:52.540
for whatever if that means anything to you guys,
795
01:02:53.145 --> 01:02:53.645
and,
796
01:02:55.065 --> 01:02:59.165
it allows you and it's Tor only. It's Tor only. It's not run by a regulated company,
797
01:03:00.105 --> 01:03:01.640
so so consider it.
798
01:03:03.000 --> 01:03:07.420
Cool. Yeah. I that's really awesome of the Nodl team to
799
01:03:08.039 --> 01:03:12.945
reach out to the node thief and put them in their data facility. That's great.
800
01:03:13.405 --> 01:03:15.425
Yes. Yes. The node thief is
801
01:03:16.605 --> 01:03:19.985
is working with nava cloud now. So this is the node.
802
01:03:22.030 --> 01:03:25.090
So if you want to connect to it, I guess, just go on to 1mlorln.bigsun
803
01:03:26.430 --> 01:03:28.050
and and type in stacking stats,
804
01:03:28.675 --> 01:03:34.295
and you'll be able to get that pub key because, obviously, you can't copy it from an image. I guess you could use the QR code.
805
01:03:36.400 --> 01:03:39.220
But yeah. So I I thought that was important to mention.
806
01:03:40.400 --> 01:03:43.280
I think it's gonna be really interesting, guys, to see how
807
01:03:44.235 --> 01:03:48.095
maybe my bias is showing again, but if it's not this time, I'm curious to see
808
01:03:48.475 --> 01:03:49.215
what happens,
809
01:03:49.915 --> 01:03:54.730
how these lightning implementations and these lightning wallets handle, like, a sustained high fee environment.
810
01:03:55.350 --> 01:03:59.850
We kind of haven't really dealt with it in a lot of, like, the really cool UX ways
811
01:04:00.310 --> 01:04:01.610
of dealing with it.
812
01:04:03.425 --> 01:04:09.045
I just feel like I haven't been stress tested. You know? Like, I've been loving Moonwallet lately, m u u n wallet.
813
01:04:10.920 --> 01:04:18.460
I don't know what their fee assumptions are, you know, or, like, Breezewallert or Phoenix. Like, what are their fee assumptions? Like, how is that going to influence
814
01:04:18.840 --> 01:04:19.340
things?
815
01:04:19.795 --> 01:04:20.855
I think also
816
01:04:21.155 --> 01:04:22.215
that there's something
817
01:04:23.235 --> 01:04:30.270
is there something about, like, the channel open last if it, like, lasts longer than 2 weeks, you have issues or something like that? Am I mistaken there?
818
01:04:32.250 --> 01:04:34.030
Are you guys aware of that at all?
819
01:04:35.405 --> 01:04:36.944
Thankfully, I haven't been,
820
01:04:37.645 --> 01:04:38.704
in a situation
821
01:04:39.005 --> 01:04:41.025
where I have to experience that firsthand,
822
01:04:42.040 --> 01:04:44.460
but I believe there could be some challenges there.
823
01:04:45.720 --> 01:04:48.300
Certainly, there's a challenge when you're opening
824
01:04:49.000 --> 01:04:50.060
lightning channels
825
01:04:50.705 --> 01:04:52.565
as you cannot use RBF.
826
01:04:53.185 --> 01:04:58.565
You have to if you wanna bump your channel open, you have to do a child pay for parent, which is a little complex.
827
01:04:59.670 --> 01:05:04.410
But, no, I have I haven't had any opens last, 2 week plus. How about you, Ben?
828
01:05:06.715 --> 01:05:11.835
No. I don't think I have. Normally, I try to get those in quickly in case something goes wrong. But,
829
01:05:12.475 --> 01:05:13.055
I know
830
01:05:13.730 --> 01:05:17.809
on the closing side, there was, like, a bunch of recent improvements where,
831
01:05:18.530 --> 01:05:24.795
like, before there's, like, this, like, loop flooded loop paper where, like, you couldn't bump the fee of your closing transaction.
832
01:05:25.655 --> 01:05:26.635
But, now
833
01:05:27.175 --> 01:05:31.255
I think most lighting implementations allow you to do anchor outputs, so you always have a
834
01:05:31.930 --> 01:05:34.090
an output to bump the fee on so you can,
835
01:05:34.810 --> 01:05:35.870
make sure your closing
836
01:05:36.170 --> 01:05:37.150
transaction gets,
837
01:05:37.530 --> 01:05:38.350
in the mempool
838
01:05:38.730 --> 01:05:44.895
or in a block, which is really good to see because, you know, if if you close, something on Thursday and then Friday,
839
01:05:45.275 --> 01:05:49.915
fees jump up by a 100 sats per byte, like and now you could be screwed. And,
840
01:05:50.714 --> 01:05:53.620
you know, this could, like, help save you now, which is really good to see.
841
01:05:57.760 --> 01:06:00.105
So the my what
842
01:06:01.785 --> 01:06:03.164
I mean, and this is classic,
843
01:06:05.385 --> 01:06:11.510
I'm I'm just gonna I I it's unconfirmed. I I'm not sure, but my understanding was that if
844
01:06:12.050 --> 01:06:21.275
the way the way it works, like, if you open a channel and it lasts it takes longer than 2 weeks to confirm and then confirms, it just, like, automatically force closes
845
01:06:21.850 --> 01:06:24.110
based on, like, the game theory logic of lightning.
846
01:06:24.490 --> 01:06:25.710
Because the hash
847
01:06:26.010 --> 01:06:27.470
time lock is,
848
01:06:28.810 --> 01:06:33.835
2 weeks by default, so it expires. Something like that. Yeah. Yeah. That sounds about right.
849
01:06:34.215 --> 01:06:53.065
So, like, all these little educate so people ask me. They they go, Matt, so what are you concerned about about lightning in a high fee environment? Well, first of all, to be absolutely clear, I think at the end of this high fee environment, lightning will be way more robust and way better. And, like, that is the cool part about working in, you know, live adversarial environments.
850
01:06:54.164 --> 01:07:00.880
But what I'm most concerned about is the shit I'm not concerned about. Like, I feel like there's all these different edge cases that people don't think about
851
01:07:01.339 --> 01:07:02.480
that become apparent.
852
01:07:04.665 --> 01:07:15.020
They become apparent when you're in this high fee environment. Like, what if I like, we talked earlier about the minimal channel size. Right? Like, the concern about the minimal channel size is if your channel size is too small,
853
01:07:15.480 --> 01:07:19.260
the on chain fee is gonna eat up the majority of the channel at time of close.
854
01:07:19.799 --> 01:07:23.275
When is close gonna happen? Is gonna happen in 5, 6 years?
855
01:07:23.655 --> 01:07:28.795
Is close gonna happen, forced closed by your channel partner in the middle of a super high fee environment?
856
01:07:29.495 --> 01:07:29.995
And
857
01:07:30.820 --> 01:07:36.360
we don't really we don't have, like, the we don't have the experience or the data to, like, back any of that shit up. Right?
858
01:07:37.300 --> 01:07:38.040
Yeah. And
859
01:07:38.875 --> 01:07:43.855
still, you people need to understand this is a, you know, highly nascent experimental network.
860
01:07:44.555 --> 01:07:49.350
It's made a lot of gains in terms of, you know, growth and
861
01:07:50.290 --> 01:07:53.030
stability, but there's still a lot more to be ironed out.
862
01:07:53.570 --> 01:07:58.365
Like, example, the Lightning Labs guys, they're working on a new type of channel type called,
863
01:07:59.165 --> 01:07:59.985
anchor channels
864
01:08:00.285 --> 01:08:01.405
where you'll have,
865
01:08:02.045 --> 01:08:03.025
some fees.
866
01:08:05.210 --> 01:08:06.590
You'll you'll have UTXOs
867
01:08:06.890 --> 01:08:11.310
that are not in the channel, but they're dedicated to paying the fees afterwards.
868
01:08:11.694 --> 01:08:15.155
So, like, situations and schemes like this, they're gonna be mitigated
869
01:08:15.694 --> 01:08:16.094
as,
870
01:08:16.735 --> 01:08:24.409
you know, new funding types are are added to the network. So that'll be interesting to play out as that gets to clients. I think in
871
01:08:24.710 --> 01:08:26.409
l and d o point
872
01:08:27.035 --> 01:08:30.094
13, that should be out. So that'll be exciting.
873
01:08:31.195 --> 01:08:36.735
But, yeah, it's gonna there's a lot of challenges that we're gonna see on the network as it grows and scales up,
874
01:08:37.340 --> 01:08:40.880
and there's gonna be a lot of edge cases that people hadn't even thought about.
875
01:08:41.659 --> 01:08:42.159
So
876
01:08:42.699 --> 01:08:43.760
in these times,
877
01:08:44.345 --> 01:08:46.365
you know, you've gotta really,
878
01:08:47.465 --> 01:08:50.685
you know, think about the amount of funds that you're opening
879
01:08:51.440 --> 01:09:08.085
to people. Like, you shouldn't be opening up huge channels to strangers that screw you on channel close. Right? Like, if you're doing a bigger channel, it's nicer if that's with someone who you're friends with who you could send an email to or get on the phone with to sort out the issues you may have there.
880
01:09:09.230 --> 01:09:13.090
We lost you for a bit there, for what it's worth. I think we all lost you.
881
01:09:14.190 --> 01:09:18.185
He was perfect for me. Oh, wow. Well, that's good. I'm glad,
882
01:09:19.305 --> 01:09:21.005
glad everyone else heard at least.
883
01:09:21.945 --> 01:09:22.445
Okay.
884
01:09:23.100 --> 01:09:28.080
Yeah. Just, gotta have good channel partners for, you know, your real big channels.
885
01:09:28.940 --> 01:09:33.094
You know, you're not gonna want to have massive amounts of,
886
01:09:34.675 --> 01:09:39.975
you know, capital up with some NIM that you don't know and you don't know the reputation of.
887
01:09:40.480 --> 01:09:46.420
Right. Most people should have, like, 1 or 2 large channels, basically, to a well connected node
888
01:09:46.800 --> 01:09:48.105
and just call it a day.
889
01:09:49.945 --> 01:09:50.765
Yeah. Absolutely.
890
01:09:51.145 --> 01:09:54.525
Open up to someone who's well connected to the network with a reputation
891
01:09:55.705 --> 01:09:56.205
and
892
01:09:57.100 --> 01:09:57.600
and
893
01:09:58.700 --> 01:10:00.240
and get get in on it.
894
01:10:02.380 --> 01:10:05.120
We have our voice for your Oh, go on.
895
01:10:05.565 --> 01:10:16.080
Sorry. Make sure for, like, your inbound capacity too, you wanna, like, have that be on, like, someone that's not gonna close it as well. Because that's, like, inbound capacity is like gold where, you know, you don't wanna lose that stuff, and,
896
01:10:16.960 --> 01:10:26.425
it's a lot harder to get back than just open reopening a channel. So, to make sure, like, you know, if you're, like, looping out, make sure it's through, like, a channel that you don't expect to close out, like, just some random
897
01:10:26.965 --> 01:10:28.425
note that connected to you.
898
01:10:31.230 --> 01:10:35.810
So we have we also have our boy, Anthony Ronning, in the chat.
899
01:10:37.435 --> 01:10:41.535
We also have 6102 in the chat before I get there. Don't trust a nim. What the fuck?
900
01:10:42.235 --> 01:10:44.015
Thought lightning was meant to be trustless.
901
01:10:44.635 --> 01:10:45.615
Do you have a
902
01:10:48.240 --> 01:10:50.340
do you have a thought to respond to, Ben?
903
01:10:52.400 --> 01:10:54.900
I mean, it is trustless, but it's just like,
904
01:10:56.315 --> 01:11:01.935
you know, you, it it reduces a lot of headaches if if you trust the other side of your,
905
01:11:02.315 --> 01:11:08.490
you know, of lighting. Like, they can't steal your money, but, you know, they could screw you over and, you know, make you pay a high on chain fee.
906
01:11:09.190 --> 01:11:11.930
So and there's, like, a problem. The village down.
907
01:11:12.685 --> 01:11:26.000
It it it's trustless in that you and I, Matt, we're not asking anyone's permission to open a channel between us. And, hell, the network doesn't even need to know. It could be private, and we don't broadcast our state to each other. However, it's not trustless in that
908
01:11:26.380 --> 01:11:27.520
you are trusting,
909
01:11:28.380 --> 01:11:30.240
the counterparty in certain situation.
910
01:11:31.535 --> 01:11:37.075
I mean, first of all, every time I hear trustless, I just squint, you know, like, just it's trust
911
01:11:37.535 --> 01:11:38.035
minimized.
912
01:11:39.730 --> 01:11:40.227
I think,
913
01:11:41.890 --> 01:11:56.925
there's probably some edge cases where, like, money can be stolen as well, but most, you know, as, you know, like, they drain a channel in a high fee environment. The channel's, like, a low amount. You don't have a minimum channel size. Like, maybe they can end up taking money from you in that respect.
914
01:11:58.420 --> 01:11:58.920
But,
915
01:12:00.100 --> 01:12:00.600
the
916
01:12:03.140 --> 01:12:06.680
I've the the the key the key element here is
917
01:12:07.565 --> 01:12:12.385
is that if if you you you want channel partners that you think will
918
01:12:12.845 --> 01:12:17.290
exist for a long period of time. Right? Because if you have to keep opening and closed channels,
919
01:12:18.150 --> 01:12:26.855
it's gonna cost you significantly on on chain fees, and that's gonna be your main fee burden. I that's gonna be your main cost for running a Lightning node. Like, I saw that on
920
01:12:27.395 --> 01:12:30.935
on the on the stacking SaaS node before it was taken,
921
01:12:31.715 --> 01:12:32.455
was that
922
01:12:33.330 --> 01:12:37.910
you if if you if you just had a large amount of small little channels,
923
01:12:39.650 --> 01:12:50.135
you know, you're just you're gonna end up getting wrecked. You're gonna lose a ton of money. Money. And we have our boy, Anthony Ronning, in here, or Ronning. I apologize if I butchered your your last name.
924
01:12:50.995 --> 01:12:51.315
The
925
01:12:52.500 --> 01:12:56.920
he was bragging about using Lightning Pool to lease out liquidity,
926
01:12:57.620 --> 01:13:01.800
and that goes hand in hand with our boy, Daddy Warbits, that wants to talk about inbound,
927
01:13:02.725 --> 01:13:03.225
capacity.
928
01:13:03.605 --> 01:13:04.985
And the cool thing about
929
01:13:05.445 --> 01:13:09.385
Lightning Pool is that you can pay people in a
930
01:13:10.210 --> 01:13:11.830
somewhat distributed marketplace,
931
01:13:12.449 --> 01:13:17.190
to provide inbound liquidity to you. So, like, the way I look at Lightning is, like, it's like an abacus,
932
01:13:18.555 --> 01:13:31.700
which is like those Chinese math devices, right, where you move the beads from one side to the other, and it's and that the the Bitcoin's moving from one side the other, and you need to have the beads on your side to be able to spend. You need to have the beads on their side for them to spend to you.
933
01:13:32.560 --> 01:13:44.070
With Lightning Pool, you can get them to send you know, have beads on their side ready to send to you, and you pay them a fee for it. And a perfect example of not being ready for this high fee environment
934
01:13:44.690 --> 01:13:45.590
is Anthony,
935
01:13:46.610 --> 01:13:50.470
has been bragging to me about his trustless 10% that he's been earning.
936
01:13:50.845 --> 01:13:59.905
And then meanwhile, the on chain fees come in, and they just fucking take all his profit and turn it into loss. And he just gets fucking kicked in the balls. So it's, like, a perfect example of something
937
01:14:00.340 --> 01:14:02.500
that, like, really needed to be stress tested,
938
01:14:02.820 --> 01:14:05.480
with on chain fees, like, high on chain fees.
939
01:14:10.715 --> 01:14:11.614
I guess Yeah.
940
01:14:11.915 --> 01:14:21.300
Yeah. Go. I I saw that, the thread where he's like, oh, I kinda got screwed here. I think he was getting, like, a super good rate, like, 10% back, but then, you know, the on chain fee ate all of that, which
941
01:14:21.680 --> 01:14:24.260
really sucks. I know, like, Cool has some
942
01:14:24.665 --> 01:14:30.764
improvements to do to mitigate that, where, like, right now, your channel closes into your lightning wallet, and then you have to do redo a transaction
943
01:14:31.680 --> 01:14:32.400
to your,
944
01:14:32.880 --> 01:14:36.500
to your pool wallet and then, you know, open the channel again. So
945
01:14:36.880 --> 01:14:39.140
you can reduce one of those transactions at least.
946
01:14:39.680 --> 01:14:39.760
But,
947
01:14:41.315 --> 01:14:50.920
yeah, there are, like you know, you kinda get screwed over there. And, you know, I mean, the nature is of Lightning, you you still have to do some on chain transactions. So you always have to account for that. And, hopefully,
948
01:14:51.300 --> 01:14:54.120
Pool can start to count that. Maybe they'll, like, add
949
01:14:54.420 --> 01:14:56.120
a a base fee plus,
950
01:14:56.500 --> 01:14:59.975
you know, the percent fee so you couldn't mitigate these closing,
951
01:15:00.355 --> 01:15:00.855
fees.
952
01:15:03.635 --> 01:15:04.295
I mean,
953
01:15:04.675 --> 01:15:16.685
my my biggest concern about well, first of all, Anthony, I love you. Okay? He wants he wants Afrigs to know that he hasn't closed his channel yet, so he hasn't lost any stats yet. That's fine. You know, I'm just I'm just busting your balls.
954
01:15:17.245 --> 01:15:22.785
My my biggest concern about lightning, because I just experienced it myself for a fucking year,
955
01:15:23.565 --> 01:15:30.150
is it just really, really difficult for the average user to conceptualize on fee fee burden on chain fee burden.
956
01:15:30.690 --> 01:15:31.989
Right? It's just like,
957
01:15:34.534 --> 01:15:37.594
like, who knows? Like, humans just aren't good at conceptualizing,
958
01:15:38.135 --> 01:15:42.315
like, what is my what is the right fee I should be charging for my node's
959
01:15:42.770 --> 01:15:43.270
liquidity?
960
01:15:43.889 --> 01:15:51.989
Like, what is when I close this when is this channel gonna get closed? And when I close it, how much is it gonna cost me? Like, these are things that are just not easy to
961
01:15:52.705 --> 01:15:54.885
price in if if you if you'd say.
962
01:15:57.745 --> 01:16:07.500
Yeah. I mean, like so, like, when you open this thing, that was before this huge spikes. You know, fees might have been, like, 50 sats per byte, which isn't awful. But then, you know, at the end of your contract, now it's
963
01:16:07.800 --> 01:16:14.375
250. You kinda get screwed. So it's, like, kind of an impossible problem to solve, but, I mean, they'll lead mitigations.
964
01:16:15.715 --> 01:16:17.975
But, yeah, you kinda just get screwed there.
965
01:16:20.260 --> 01:16:23.239
I mean, I think mid channel size kind of helps
966
01:16:23.780 --> 01:16:30.665
the most probably. It's, like, probably the single biggest thing. Right? Because you're reducing the percentage of that on chain fee burning period.
967
01:16:31.925 --> 01:16:33.865
But that kinda sucks. Right? Like, I
968
01:16:34.565 --> 01:16:35.625
I saw Grubles,
969
01:16:36.100 --> 01:16:42.520
our boy, Grubles finally, like, decided he was gonna dive headfirst into lightning, and he was just, like, struck by, like,
970
01:16:42.900 --> 01:16:52.535
he couldn't open any channels with people, like, the large nodes because they just we're all men channel sizing them, you know, like, 5,000,000 SaaS. You gotta you need a pony of $3,000
971
01:16:52.915 --> 01:16:54.295
to open a channel with us.
972
01:16:55.070 --> 01:16:59.730
Yeah. Greg's like, oh, look, there's a there's a limit, so, it's not trustless.
973
01:17:02.455 --> 01:17:12.075
But that's the issue. Right? It's, like, those parties don't know what to price themselves at, so the single biggest thing they could do is just make the channel size as high as, like, a higher rate.
974
01:17:13.210 --> 01:17:13.710
Yeah.
975
01:17:17.610 --> 01:17:20.750
It's crazy. And then over time, you know, even those min limits,
976
01:17:21.225 --> 01:17:24.265
there are even bigger channels as number goes up too. So
977
01:17:25.385 --> 01:17:26.445
oh, man. Okay.
978
01:17:26.825 --> 01:17:29.325
So you guys got 14 minutes of
979
01:17:30.200 --> 01:17:31.720
very good 3 d printer gun talk,
980
01:17:33.880 --> 01:17:42.284
which, by the way, just to push back against the freaks that were a little bit upset about that, like, the it's it's the same it's the same idea. It's information wants to be free.
981
01:17:44.025 --> 01:17:48.820
You know, it's it's a it's part of the free open source movement. It's probably one of the strongest,
982
01:17:50.560 --> 01:17:52.740
new defensive technologies we have,
983
01:17:54.560 --> 01:18:02.045
along with Bitcoin, so I it definitely goes hand in hand. So I I don't think it was off topic. Definitely not off topic for Citadel Dispatch. I mean,
984
01:18:02.665 --> 01:18:04.765
you know, this is a Bitcoin first show, but
985
01:18:05.119 --> 01:18:07.059
it's it's not only a Bitcoin show.
986
01:18:07.920 --> 01:18:11.699
So then we had 14 minutes of that. We had an hour conversation
987
01:18:12.000 --> 01:18:14.260
about lightning and transaction fees.
988
01:18:16.455 --> 01:18:18.775
So let's let's jump into the good stuff. Let's,
989
01:18:19.575 --> 01:18:20.635
Taproot activation.
990
01:18:21.550 --> 01:18:25.330
Are we are we excited about speedy trial getting merged into core?
991
01:18:25.710 --> 01:18:27.650
Are we gonna have Taproot in November?
992
01:18:30.075 --> 01:18:31.775
What should the freaks know about this?
993
01:18:32.635 --> 01:18:37.535
I'm super excited. I mean, I was, like, jumping for joy when I saw the PR got merged.
994
01:18:38.920 --> 01:18:52.615
And, I don't know. It's super cool to see. I mean, it finally happens. Like, I know, like, 2 weeks ago, since then on Twitter, like, people were just like, is this thing even gonna happen? But now it's like, you know, I'm running speedy trial on this laptop I'm using right now. Like, you know, it's happening.
995
01:18:53.395 --> 01:18:56.535
And, and we're gonna need minor signal. But,
996
01:18:57.380 --> 01:19:04.360
you know, it seems like it's happening at least. And, you know, you can run the client if you want, and there really should be sometime this week.
997
01:19:06.055 --> 01:19:09.515
Yeah. Yeah. It's in at least candidate 1 right now.
998
01:19:09.895 --> 01:19:11.435
So, you know, people should
999
01:19:12.295 --> 01:19:17.580
test it out if you're gonna be using it. Don't mess around with it. I know Know a lot of people have upgraded their nodes already.
1000
01:19:18.680 --> 01:19:22.380
But, yeah, all in all, it's just really exciting stuff, as Ben said.
1001
01:19:23.135 --> 01:19:26.835
We have a clean path for miners to activate,
1002
01:19:27.775 --> 01:19:31.395
and, you know, chances of that are are really, really high.
1003
01:19:32.200 --> 01:19:33.820
We were hanging out after,
1004
01:19:34.840 --> 01:19:38.860
what was it, after bit dev, after we had dinner at the barbecue joint,
1005
01:19:39.195 --> 01:19:42.495
and, we went to some bar afterwards, and I was messing with Ben. I said,
1006
01:19:42.955 --> 01:19:43.775
I don't know.
1007
01:19:44.715 --> 01:19:49.739
We this probably won't go through without a user activated software, then you start bugging out.
1008
01:19:51.640 --> 01:19:58.695
But yeah. Yeah. I mean, a lot of Bitcoiners right now, they still have that PTSD from, you know, Segwit and whatnot.
1009
01:19:59.475 --> 01:20:07.159
But chances are, this is gonna be merged in. We're gonna have it this year. And even if the miners don't activate and we have to do a user activated soft work,
1010
01:20:07.460 --> 01:20:09.559
you know, it will be with good merit. And,
1011
01:20:10.659 --> 01:20:17.685
you know, we're we're gonna have this very important upgrade to Bitcoin, and that's gonna pave the way for even more important upgrades. So
1012
01:20:18.625 --> 01:20:25.889
Yeah. Really, really what a lot of people miss is most or, like, every software besides Segwit activated within, like, the first three months. And,
1013
01:20:26.929 --> 01:20:31.030
you know, most of them were, like, pretty seamless, and, you know, Taproot should be the same.
1014
01:20:31.409 --> 01:20:35.005
And, like, hopefully, Segwit was just the anomaly. And, you know,
1015
01:20:35.385 --> 01:20:37.885
and even if we are wrong in this thing, you know,
1016
01:20:38.344 --> 01:20:41.070
you know, it's speedy trial fails, well, we can just
1017
01:20:42.030 --> 01:20:45.570
use, Luke dash junior CYSF client and, actually,
1018
01:20:46.829 --> 01:20:47.489
you know,
1019
01:20:47.869 --> 01:20:48.770
get it in.
1020
01:20:49.310 --> 01:20:49.810
Yep.
1021
01:20:50.935 --> 01:20:54.695
I mean, technically is that Luke, but, I'm glad we have it. I think,
1022
01:20:55.575 --> 01:20:57.995
Luke is a contrarian that we need in our community.
1023
01:21:00.070 --> 01:21:00.890
I mean, technically,
1024
01:21:01.510 --> 01:21:02.570
Luke is just
1025
01:21:04.390 --> 01:21:10.905
he's posted links to it. He's saying he's not connected to it. Right? I guess Shinobi and at Grassfed Beef are,
1026
01:21:11.385 --> 01:21:11.885
claiming
1027
01:21:12.985 --> 01:21:15.324
that they're behind that UASF fork.
1028
01:21:16.105 --> 01:21:16.925
Yeah. UASF
1029
01:21:17.304 --> 01:21:17.804
client.
1030
01:21:18.809 --> 01:21:20.829
Guess I misread that. Shouts to them then.
1031
01:21:21.530 --> 01:21:25.630
I mean, Luke is probably involved as well. He's just, you know, he's just a little bit distance.
1032
01:21:26.010 --> 01:21:27.309
As Luke does. Yeah.
1033
01:21:28.305 --> 01:21:31.265
But, yeah, I mean, as much as you may not agree with,
1034
01:21:31.905 --> 01:21:34.725
that option and you might not wanna run it,
1035
01:21:35.310 --> 01:21:42.850
you can complain with the option being there. You know? We we might actually need it if the miners don't activate, so that'll be good.
1036
01:21:44.125 --> 01:21:48.704
Yeah. And, like, you know, the the UASF date is, like, the end of 2022,
1037
01:21:49.164 --> 01:21:51.824
like, October, November, something like that. So,
1038
01:21:52.150 --> 01:22:01.110
you know, we it would be a while until we actually UASF, but it does give, like, a good amount of time for, you know, the ecosystem to get ready if we are gonna do it. So, like, you know, it won't be
1039
01:22:01.785 --> 01:22:10.125
it's not like, you know, in the like, this November or something, we start, like, this chain splitting because they this guy released this client. Like, we should be
1040
01:22:10.790 --> 01:22:12.090
should be mostly fine.
1041
01:22:13.750 --> 01:22:18.170
So the we're so with this runway that we have for this to get activated,
1042
01:22:18.975 --> 01:22:24.355
I'm expecting a lot of wallets and institutions to have support for Taproot this year.
1043
01:22:25.295 --> 01:22:35.935
Let's see how widespread it'll actually be because of the tech debt that these people have, and we know how long it took for Segwit to get activated on a lot of, different exchanges and
1044
01:22:36.895 --> 01:22:43.955
The worst wallet ever that is involved with the majority of transactions, whether that's through its own wallet or through its API,
1045
01:22:44.500 --> 01:22:46.040
which I'm not going to name,
1046
01:22:46.420 --> 01:22:48.679
finally merged Segwit, like, yesterday.
1047
01:22:50.020 --> 01:22:50.600
Oh, no.
1048
01:22:51.060 --> 01:22:54.135
I mean, I think you guys know his wallet I'm talking about. I don't even wanna give
1049
01:22:54.695 --> 01:23:01.914
give them the I missed that. They actually did it. It wasn't just an April fools joke. They merged it. You know, it hasn't been actually released.
1050
01:23:02.230 --> 01:23:07.130
You know, support isn't released yet, but if you if you're watching their repo, it's been merged.
1051
01:23:08.150 --> 01:23:10.685
Wow. It only took, like, 4 years.
1052
01:23:11.245 --> 01:23:13.645
4 years and, like, 300 sat per byte,
1053
01:23:14.045 --> 01:23:14.865
fee spike.
1054
01:23:17.405 --> 01:23:18.305
Oh, man.
1055
01:23:18.845 --> 01:23:19.345
But,
1056
01:23:21.290 --> 01:23:28.045
what is 6102 wants me to put his Taproot timeline on. I'm guessing you sent that to me through something else.
1057
01:23:28.605 --> 01:23:29.505
For the record,
1058
01:23:30.285 --> 01:23:33.105
I currently think I'm gonna lose my bet with Marty,
1059
01:23:35.300 --> 01:23:37.880
which was the deadline was,
1060
01:23:39.620 --> 01:23:44.200
the end of this year, Taproot, and the loser has to pay a 1,000,000 sets
1061
01:23:44.975 --> 01:23:46.995
to HRF's dev fund.
1062
01:23:48.975 --> 01:23:52.710
But I also wanna be clear that I'm, you know, humbly
1063
01:23:53.170 --> 01:23:57.030
believing that my my simple 1,000,000 sat bet,
1064
01:23:58.770 --> 01:23:59.590
helped incentivize
1065
01:24:00.130 --> 01:24:00.630
Marty
1066
01:24:01.095 --> 01:24:01.835
to push
1067
01:24:02.295 --> 01:24:03.115
core devs,
1068
01:24:03.575 --> 01:24:07.595
to push Taproot, and that's why we're getting it before the end of the year. So,
1069
01:24:08.535 --> 01:24:09.195
you're welcome.
1070
01:24:12.110 --> 01:24:14.930
Well, it's worth it. Small price to pay.
1071
01:24:16.555 --> 01:24:20.255
I am curious how many people actually implement Taproot. There is
1072
01:24:20.955 --> 01:24:24.520
a PR into Bitcoin Core that adds spending functionality that'd
1073
01:24:26.180 --> 01:24:30.024
be really cool if you know most people don't use Bitcoin
1074
01:24:30.420 --> 01:24:35.115
Core, but, That'd be really cool if, you know, you know, most people don't use Bitcoin Core, but,
1075
01:24:35.735 --> 01:24:38.395
that'd be awesome if it actually could use it. And,
1076
01:24:39.570 --> 01:24:48.790
you know, that's that's like a lot of, you know, a lot of things are built on top of Bitcoin Core. So maybe, you know, it'd be trivial for other people to start implementing if Bitcoin Core has support.
1077
01:24:49.345 --> 01:24:57.205
But we do have a problem as well where there's a new address type where address encoding where we're using best 32 m. This is the best 32.
1078
01:24:57.800 --> 01:25:00.300
So there's a niche bug in best 32.
1079
01:25:01.480 --> 01:25:05.580
So there will be some we'll have to go through the same headache again of everyone implementing
1080
01:25:06.175 --> 01:25:12.355
the ability to parse these addresses and then send to them. So, hopefully, that comes soon, but, you know, we'll see.
1081
01:25:15.430 --> 01:25:18.170
Gotta love it. Another address type on the way.
1082
01:25:19.430 --> 01:25:20.970
The last one, t m.
1083
01:25:21.655 --> 01:25:23.195
I mean, it's definitely not. Right?
1084
01:25:24.135 --> 01:25:27.175
Nah. Something else will come down. I'm not convinced we're,
1085
01:25:28.295 --> 01:25:29.835
we're close to ossification.
1086
01:25:30.470 --> 01:25:33.050
But although it does feel like that with
1087
01:25:33.510 --> 01:25:36.650
the struggle, the push and the pull from all the sides,
1088
01:25:37.190 --> 01:25:39.855
I'm I'm not convinced that we're close to ossification.
1089
01:25:40.635 --> 01:25:41.855
I found 6102's
1090
01:25:42.475 --> 01:25:45.855
tappered timeline that he wanted me to post, for the Video Freak.
1091
01:25:47.960 --> 01:25:51.980
So he's got the speedy trial activation window to August.
1092
01:25:56.120 --> 01:25:57.100
Oh, that's great.
1093
01:25:58.025 --> 01:25:59.165
This is right. Right?
1094
01:26:00.345 --> 01:26:00.845
Yeah.
1095
01:26:01.305 --> 01:26:02.445
From April 24th
1096
01:26:03.065 --> 01:26:04.285
to August 11th
1097
01:26:05.210 --> 01:26:07.310
to activate via speedy trial.
1098
01:26:08.330 --> 01:26:08.810
And,
1099
01:26:09.370 --> 01:26:09.870
Taproot
1100
01:26:10.330 --> 01:26:10.830
UASF
1101
01:26:11.210 --> 01:26:12.030
BIP 8
1102
01:26:12.565 --> 01:26:14.665
block equals true, which is the UASF,
1103
01:26:15.925 --> 01:26:18.025
starts at the same point and runs through,
1104
01:26:18.645 --> 01:26:20.425
what is that, October 14,
1105
01:26:20.725 --> 01:26:21.225
2022?
1106
01:26:23.340 --> 01:26:23.840
Yeah.
1107
01:26:24.540 --> 01:26:30.215
That's what it looks like on this chart. I thought it was earlier than I thought it was, like, gonna be, like, March 2022 or something like that, April 29,
1108
01:26:30.835 --> 01:26:31.335
2022,
1109
01:26:33.555 --> 01:26:40.980
but I don't know. I'd trust 6102 on that. I mean, look. At the end of the day, like, what? We we expect we expect 90%.
1110
01:26:41.600 --> 01:26:44.180
We already have 90% of miners on taprootactivation.com,
1111
01:26:45.435 --> 01:26:46.855
if you wanna trust that,
1112
01:26:47.595 --> 01:26:48.735
privately telling,
1113
01:26:50.635 --> 01:26:55.340
the guy who runs that site that they're going to signal for Taproot. Right? So
1114
01:26:55.980 --> 01:27:02.480
really, what happens is we talked about it this whole fucking time, and this is what's nice about speedy trial. It's, like, fuck all these arguments.
1115
01:27:03.135 --> 01:27:08.435
You have the speedy trial window, you have a 3 month window, and if the miner's signal 90%, over 90%,
1116
01:27:08.975 --> 01:27:10.995
then you don't have to worry about all the other
1117
01:27:12.540 --> 01:27:16.240
arguments. Right? Unless you have some kind of, like, hostile UASF,
1118
01:27:17.580 --> 01:27:21.895
to to try and veto any kind of change. Right? That's, like, the ultimate check.
1119
01:27:22.195 --> 01:27:22.695
Yep.
1120
01:27:24.595 --> 01:27:27.815
So we'll probably have Taproot in November, December.
1121
01:27:28.900 --> 01:27:29.800
Fingers crossed.
1122
01:27:31.539 --> 01:27:32.039
Okay.
1123
01:27:32.900 --> 01:27:34.840
Ben, you've been, like, Taproot
1124
01:27:35.995 --> 01:27:40.175
king over here. Like, you love talking about Taproot. Did we cover what you wanna cover here?
1125
01:27:41.114 --> 01:27:44.655
Yeah. I mean, I I wanna call myself Taproot king, but
1126
01:27:46.790 --> 01:27:52.890
it's fine. I've, like, kinda fallen into this role or someone asked me to explain it to them. So I, like, read the bips a few times, and now
1127
01:27:53.375 --> 01:27:59.875
now I've become, like, the Twitter guy for Taproot. But, it's been fun. Getting in on all the IRC chats is great, man. Great to see.
1128
01:28:00.255 --> 01:28:03.470
6102 is asking me why I trust taprootactivation.com.
1129
01:28:04.250 --> 01:28:05.470
I do not trust taprootactivation.com.
1130
01:28:06.250 --> 01:28:06.990
I said
1131
01:28:07.370 --> 01:28:14.055
that, yeah, I thought I made clear that I don't trust it, and I would actually go farther and say that just because miners signal
1132
01:28:14.515 --> 01:28:17.175
doesn't mean that they're actually running the client.
1133
01:28:17.475 --> 01:28:18.614
They can just lie,
1134
01:28:19.890 --> 01:28:21.350
and they could actually signal
1135
01:28:21.810 --> 01:28:23.190
that they're different miners
1136
01:28:23.890 --> 01:28:24.630
and lie.
1137
01:28:25.330 --> 01:28:32.215
This whole idea that we know which block is mined by which miner is a voluntary process where the miner
1138
01:28:32.675 --> 01:28:33.655
doxes themselves.
1139
01:28:34.275 --> 01:28:35.415
So they could theoretically
1140
01:28:36.195 --> 01:28:36.695
and,
1141
01:28:37.480 --> 01:28:47.415
you know, fortunately for the Bitcoin network, I've never been a large pool, but if I was a large pool, I'd be fucking around with those numbers all the time. Like, I have to totally fucking pretend that I was other pools.
1142
01:28:51.315 --> 01:28:54.190
So I'm glad we got that out of the way, 6102. Thank you.
1143
01:28:54.910 --> 01:28:56.290
When Taproot Queen,
1144
01:28:57.390 --> 01:28:57.890
Ben?
1145
01:28:59.949 --> 01:29:01.010
That's from Ty.
1146
01:29:03.615 --> 01:29:10.175
Why I mention it? 61 61 twos asked me why I mentioned it. I mentioned it because it's a data point. It's a fucking data point. So,
1147
01:29:11.110 --> 01:29:15.050
if if if if that's what we have, then you're gonna mention the data point.
1148
01:29:16.870 --> 01:29:19.770
Okay. So we'll see if Taproot gets activated now. 6102
1149
01:29:20.070 --> 01:29:22.395
has decided that he's he's going to,
1150
01:29:23.415 --> 01:29:29.755
single man stop it. The cool thing about Bitcoin, I think, and what makes Bitcoin valuable is that it's hard to fucking change.
1151
01:29:30.450 --> 01:29:31.990
So if it's hard to change,
1152
01:29:33.730 --> 01:29:37.910
then it means it's hard to change for the negative, and and we should be grateful,
1153
01:29:39.075 --> 01:29:40.935
that every time there's a change,
1154
01:29:41.475 --> 01:29:43.895
a significant change, that there is opposition,
1155
01:29:44.515 --> 01:29:45.335
there's concern,
1156
01:29:47.010 --> 01:29:52.310
because things that are easy to change will just always almost always get corrupted, and that's, you know,
1157
01:29:52.690 --> 01:29:55.265
basically the exact opposite of what Bitcoin's about.
1158
01:29:55.905 --> 01:30:03.765
Yeah. Absolutely. We don't want someone just creating a merge request for built in KYC or some garbage like that, and it can throw easily.
1159
01:30:04.610 --> 01:30:05.750
You know, it's an adversarial,
1160
01:30:06.690 --> 01:30:08.150
minded system, and,
1161
01:30:08.849 --> 01:30:10.309
you know, we're grateful for that.
1162
01:30:12.364 --> 01:30:12.864
Awesome.
1163
01:30:13.885 --> 01:30:15.824
So let's talk about discrete log contracts.
1164
01:30:16.605 --> 01:30:18.705
Yes. This is what I've been waiting for.
1165
01:30:19.630 --> 01:30:39.440
Ben, I gotta say, really excited about what you and the guys at SureDbits are doing over there. Really excited about it. It's been a ton of fun. We're like, don't know. I like to say we're at, like, the 2018 part of lightning, like, where they were at where, like, we have these really shitty clients that, you know, they they work, but you have to be technically minded to use it. You might have to use command line.
1166
01:30:39.900 --> 01:30:44.855
But, it's happening. And, like, you know, we can actually do DLCs and, you know, like,
1167
01:30:45.335 --> 01:30:45.815
me and,
1168
01:30:46.535 --> 01:30:51.675
my boss, Chris, we did a DLC, like, if Elon showed up to the meet up yes or last week. So,
1169
01:30:52.135 --> 01:30:53.835
you know, it works. And,
1170
01:30:54.909 --> 01:30:55.489
it's happening.
1171
01:30:56.190 --> 01:31:01.650
He did not. So I got a 100 k stats, luckily. I guess I gotta check the Oracle. Right?
1172
01:31:02.215 --> 01:31:02.715
Yeah.
1173
01:31:03.655 --> 01:31:10.395
So do we wanna do a quick overview here like that? I I think the cool thing about that this this idea is, basically,
1174
01:31:11.429 --> 01:31:22.555
you're not solving the trust problem of who reports it, but you're you're solving the fact that who reports it is different than who settles the bet. Right? Like, usually, right now, like, you have a
1175
01:31:23.655 --> 01:31:28.715
a casino or something, we'll set a line, and we'll say, I have up on the screen right now,
1176
01:31:29.150 --> 01:31:30.370
Evan created this,
1177
01:31:31.790 --> 01:31:35.410
DLC about, will Citadel dispatch today on 4/20
1178
01:31:36.085 --> 01:31:38.265
2021 exceed 2 and a half hours?
1179
01:31:38.965 --> 01:31:47.180
Usually, a betting company would would offer that, and they would take custody of your funds. They would know who made the bet, and they would settle those funds.
1180
01:31:47.640 --> 01:31:49.020
With the with the DLC,
1181
01:31:50.600 --> 01:31:52.540
the people who say what happened
1182
01:31:53.000 --> 01:31:53.500
versus
1183
01:31:54.475 --> 01:31:58.975
who has control of the funds being settled are separate. Would you agree on that premise?
1184
01:31:59.595 --> 01:32:05.969
Yeah. Like, that's, like, the whole point where our contract is, like, being executed by ourselves and, like, off chain.
1185
01:32:06.270 --> 01:32:09.865
So, like, what we're doing here is, like, you know, we would take Evan's here announcement
1186
01:32:10.245 --> 01:32:12.425
and put that into our software, and then
1187
01:32:13.045 --> 01:32:14.345
we would just create transactions
1188
01:32:15.045 --> 01:32:15.785
that would,
1189
01:32:16.380 --> 01:32:19.599
you know, be based off what he's gonna sign. And he'll sign, you know,
1190
01:32:20.219 --> 01:32:23.440
yes or no, depending on how long the show goes.
1191
01:32:23.755 --> 01:32:25.135
And then with that signature,
1192
01:32:25.675 --> 01:32:28.335
we're able to take that and execute our contract.
1193
01:32:28.715 --> 01:32:33.660
So Evan now he doesn't even need to know that, I used him or anyone used him,
1194
01:32:34.380 --> 01:32:35.120
as well
1195
01:32:35.500 --> 01:32:43.955
as we have this, you know, thing where, you know, the the whole entire Bitcoin blockchain is even though we use an oracle. We're just doing, like, you know, funding a multisig
1196
01:32:44.655 --> 01:32:51.540
and sending the funds out of the multisig. So it's a really simple setup. It just, requires some option, fancy cryptography.
1197
01:32:54.000 --> 01:32:58.190
Yeah. So, so last night, I was using your bit of software.
1198
01:32:58.835 --> 01:33:01.495
It's a little Java app called Crystal Bull,
1199
01:33:02.035 --> 01:33:04.135
and, I thought it was a really smooth
1200
01:33:04.515 --> 01:33:05.015
experience
1201
01:33:05.395 --> 01:33:22.514
running it for the most part. I got a couple issues with my my Java runtime. But it's like a really nice UI, and you could just type everything out, say what the possible outputs are. It doesn't necessarily have to be a, like, a true or a false. Right? You could have multiple,
1202
01:33:24.150 --> 01:33:26.330
you know, outcomes potential outcomes.
1203
01:33:26.949 --> 01:33:31.610
And, Yeah. Once I got my announcement hacks, I just posted it into oracles.
1204
01:33:31.965 --> 01:33:32.465
Sharedbits.com,
1205
01:33:32.925 --> 01:33:36.065
and I got it listed there. Added a little bit of a description.
1206
01:33:36.764 --> 01:33:40.704
You really should flesh that out. We'll try to spell out the terms exactly.
1207
01:33:41.810 --> 01:33:46.950
But yeah. But that Oracle, that's separate from, like, an actual bet contract. You still need
1208
01:33:47.490 --> 01:33:51.224
to pull it into something like Bitcoin as into some sort
1209
01:33:52.244 --> 01:33:55.625
of contract to say, okay. This is Ben's
1210
01:33:57.280 --> 01:33:58.820
address to pay out to
1211
01:33:59.200 --> 01:34:03.060
if, you know, condition a happened. Here's Evans if the other one happens. Right?
1212
01:34:03.435 --> 01:34:14.909
Yeah. Yeah. So, like, Crystal Ball is, like, just the stand alone Oracle software. Like, you know, that software could work if the Bitcoin network disappeared today. It's really just, like, taking messages and signing them.
1213
01:34:15.210 --> 01:34:15.949
But then,
1214
01:34:17.210 --> 01:34:27.645
in conjunction with the Oracle software, we have, like, our DLC wallet that's built in Bitcoin s where, you know, we can you know, I would paste in your announcement and then, you know, type in, like, you know, a fee rate and
1215
01:34:28.025 --> 01:34:31.245
different payouts I want for all of your different outcomes. And then,
1216
01:34:32.180 --> 01:34:35.480
and I could, like, set that up at the counterparty. They accept my thing,
1217
01:34:35.780 --> 01:34:38.760
my contract, and you're like, okay. I'll take the other side of this bet.
1218
01:34:39.145 --> 01:34:39.864
And then,
1219
01:34:40.344 --> 01:34:44.744
you know, once you actually sign your message of what happened, we could close our contract. And,
1220
01:34:45.864 --> 01:34:49.400
yeah, that's so like it's like there's, like, 2 completely separate entities here that,
1221
01:34:50.520 --> 01:34:55.820
oh, I mean, the the clients need to get the signatures and announcement from the Oracle.
1222
01:34:56.325 --> 01:35:00.585
But, otherwise, they're, like, you know, completely independent. Don't really need to talk to each other.
1223
01:35:03.580 --> 01:35:12.080
So, I mean, we're obviously trusting the Oracle to report it fairly. Right? Like, we have Evan, you know, Evan's supposed to
1224
01:35:12.625 --> 01:35:15.845
report whether or not this actually goes over 2 and a half hours.
1225
01:35:16.305 --> 01:35:16.805
Mhmm.
1226
01:35:17.985 --> 01:35:18.485
The
1227
01:35:19.240 --> 01:35:24.460
the holy grail, right, is this idea of multiple oracles. Do you wanna go into that a bit?
1228
01:35:24.920 --> 01:35:32.065
Yeah. So, you know, right right now, if we were to, like, bet on, you know, the length of the show, I think Evan's the only oracle. So
1229
01:35:32.525 --> 01:35:39.110
we have to solely trust him. And, you know, you know, Evan's a cool guy, but, you know, maybe he gets drunk after this and screws it up
1230
01:35:39.490 --> 01:35:40.870
and signs the wrong message.
1231
01:35:41.545 --> 01:35:59.685
And, you know, you don't maybe or you just don't wanna put your full trust in him. So we could do something where, you know, we could do, like, a 2 of 3 setup where, say, like, I like me, Matt, and Evan all do, an oracle for how long this show goes. And then you could set up a contract that says, like, you know, if 2 of 3 of them have the same answer, then we'll execute.
1232
01:36:00.625 --> 01:36:03.685
If not, then, you know, then we'll, you know, we'll
1233
01:36:04.145 --> 01:36:09.420
do a refund or something. So that way, you know, if Evan does go get drunk and, you know, he signs the wrong message,
1234
01:36:09.800 --> 01:36:11.020
well, then we can,
1235
01:36:11.320 --> 01:36:24.870
still execute and, you know, then we and then we also have, like, this cryptographic signature from Evan saying he lied. So he could say, like, hey. Don't use Evan as an oracle. He he lied. And so it gives you that nice thing where, like, you're not solely relying on a single counterparty,
1236
01:36:25.250 --> 01:36:27.670
but you can still execute your contracts. And,
1237
01:36:28.530 --> 01:36:35.765
you know, you're really you're not, like, removing trust, but you're distributing it. And it should make it a lot harder. Because now, like, say for betting, like, $1,000,000
1238
01:36:36.385 --> 01:36:40.165
and Matt's like, okay. I'm just gonna go bribe Evan so I can get my contract.
1239
01:36:40.705 --> 01:36:47.560
You know, now you have to bribe all like, 22 of 3 of us. Or, you know, if you have, like, 509, there's even more people to bribe. And,
1240
01:36:48.199 --> 01:36:50.120
you know, it makes it harder to do. And,
1241
01:36:51.205 --> 01:36:58.985
yeah. And another really nice properties too is, like, the all these oracles don't need to collaborate with each other. They're just gonna post their announcements and post their signatures.
1242
01:36:59.620 --> 01:37:07.880
And then, you know, the the users go and just taking that data, and their wallet handles the rest. Or it's like, we don't need to know that each other exists. I'm just gonna sign the message saying this thing's happening.
1243
01:37:08.365 --> 01:37:19.300
And, you know, I don't need to know if someone's using me in a one of 1 contract, in a 2 of 3, in a 66 of a 100. It could be whatever. It's just, you know, the Oracle just just does their normal workflow.
1244
01:37:20.880 --> 01:37:22.900
Cool. So I I take it,
1245
01:37:23.440 --> 01:37:28.975
a lot of the trust in Oracle is gonna sort of function to similar systems in the space,
1246
01:37:29.675 --> 01:37:31.755
where a lot of it is is reputation based. Right?
1247
01:37:33.515 --> 01:37:34.850
And it could
1248
01:37:35.310 --> 01:37:36.989
also develop, like, a sort of,
1249
01:37:37.630 --> 01:37:39.489
fee market for the oracles too,
1250
01:37:40.110 --> 01:37:41.969
in that the oracles can charge,
1251
01:37:42.375 --> 01:37:44.715
you know, users for the attestation
1252
01:37:45.175 --> 01:37:45.675
hexes,
1253
01:37:46.535 --> 01:37:51.675
on their own platform since these attestation hashes, they're not broadcast to, like, a blockchain.
1254
01:37:52.750 --> 01:37:53.810
You know, you have to
1255
01:37:54.350 --> 01:37:58.530
distribute it somewhere. Like, for example, this is distributed on the shared bit site.
1256
01:37:59.895 --> 01:38:16.400
Yeah. Yeah. We've been looking into different, like, you know, ways to monetize oracles. And, yeah, I think, like, there's a I think there's 2 really good ways you could do this. One is like what you said where, you know, I just, like, pay, like, say, like, a 100 SaaS group 100 SaaS for a lightning invoice, and, and then you give me the signatures.
1257
01:38:16.935 --> 01:38:21.594
So now you're getting a little bit of income, and, you know, you're incentivized more to, like, not screw this up.
1258
01:38:21.895 --> 01:38:28.400
Another way that we, seen, that we've came over recently from, like, copying what John Carballa is doing with his podcast,
1259
01:38:28.780 --> 01:38:30.639
where he's, like, putting up a bounty basically
1260
01:38:31.099 --> 01:38:32.059
to unlock it to
1261
01:38:33.495 --> 01:38:38.235
so then, you know, like, once, say, people pay a 100,000 stats, then it distributes the podcast.
1262
01:38:38.535 --> 01:38:44.369
You can do the same thing with, like, your Oracle signatures. You know, like, once enough people pay up, then we're gonna unlock this and,
1263
01:38:45.570 --> 01:38:49.349
you know, give give the signatures out. And this provides a really nice mechanism.
1264
01:38:49.730 --> 01:39:01.180
I mean, both of these do where since you have, like, it's a market function now, the Oracle is getting signal of, like, what events that, people want as well as, you know, you can create, like, a market for, you know,
1265
01:39:01.660 --> 01:39:10.720
how expensive and how trustworthy an oracle would be. So if, you know, if I'm being an oracle and I'm only you know, it only costs a 100 sats to unlock my signatures
1266
01:39:11.325 --> 01:39:28.350
versus, like, you know, Kraken or something who costs a 100,000 sats. And they're, you know, a lot you know, if they're a lot more expensive, they might be a lot more trust waiting. You know, if they're getting enough volume to do that, you know, they they might be worth it. And, you know, the market's signaling that, you know, it's worth it to get the Kraken signatures versus Ben signatures. And,
1267
01:39:28.985 --> 01:39:33.885
it's really cool that, you know, we're able to figure these things out. And, hopefully, we can start actually building this stuff soon.
1268
01:39:35.225 --> 01:39:36.685
Oh, man. Exciting stuff.
1269
01:39:38.810 --> 01:39:42.829
We got a question asking, are there any other use cases
1270
01:39:43.130 --> 01:39:45.710
for DLC other than gambling or betting?
1271
01:39:48.155 --> 01:39:54.655
Yeah. Definitely. I mean, you can do, like, any, like, financial contract on this. So, like, the Atomic Finance guys,
1272
01:39:55.195 --> 01:40:01.840
teased this out recently, but they're launching, like, options contract trading. This is all built on top of DLCs.
1273
01:40:02.460 --> 01:40:04.480
So then that's gonna be, like, a way for,
1274
01:40:05.179 --> 01:40:06.719
like, people to generate, like,
1275
01:40:07.045 --> 01:40:13.145
yield, like, you know, with some price risk. But, you know, if you're selling, like, covered calls for, like, a 120 k Bitcoin,
1276
01:40:13.605 --> 01:40:18.110
you could, like, get some, mild income in there. But, you know, you know, if price goes up, you're gonna,
1277
01:40:18.730 --> 01:40:25.844
you know, you'll sell your Bitcoin on accident or, you know, not not get as much back. But, do you know there's ways to use this where you could do, like, financial contracts.
1278
01:40:26.705 --> 01:40:28.885
But, otherwise, like, you know, like, today,
1279
01:40:29.300 --> 01:40:38.425
it's not really a full flush out ecosystem, so we're probably just gonna be, like, gambling and betting initially. But, you know, you can build out, like, basically any contract on top of this. Awesome.
1280
01:40:38.805 --> 01:40:43.065
And just to tie it back into, you know, high fee environment, to make it clear to everyone,
1281
01:40:43.605 --> 01:40:44.105
creating
1282
01:40:44.485 --> 01:40:44.805
and,
1283
01:40:45.620 --> 01:40:47.640
creating an event and creating an attestation,
1284
01:40:48.740 --> 01:40:51.160
none of this is recorded on chain. Is that correct?
1285
01:40:52.580 --> 01:40:53.720
Yeah. Yeah. You can't
1286
01:40:54.175 --> 01:40:54.975
tell at all that,
1287
01:40:55.614 --> 01:41:16.865
like, which Oracles was used. Like, even the Oracle can't tell that they were used. All they all it looks like is just, like, normal transaction funding a multi sig and then normal transaction spending from the multi sig. So, like, none of this oracle stuff is even relevant to the blockchain. You know? If like I said, like, if Bitcoin just completely disappeared today, the Oracle would do the exact same thing and it still worked. Like,
1288
01:41:17.405 --> 01:41:24.599
it's really just, like, about what the users are doing off chain. So, like, and to break it down a little more, like, what you're actually doing is
1289
01:41:24.980 --> 01:41:32.440
you're creating, like so, like, you for, like, this for your case where you have, you know, yes or no, does it go over 2 and a half hours?
1290
01:41:32.755 --> 01:41:39.670
Mhmm. If I wanna do a a contract with you, I would create 2 transactions, one for the yes case and one for the no case.
1291
01:41:40.150 --> 01:41:42.010
And then, I'll give you signatures
1292
01:41:42.310 --> 01:41:43.850
for both that are encrypted,
1293
01:41:44.310 --> 01:41:47.610
and they can only be decrypted by the actual Oracle signature.
1294
01:41:48.310 --> 01:41:48.810
So
1295
01:41:49.895 --> 01:41:58.395
so if you just sign, like, you know, yes or no, whatever one, I'll take that, message, and then now I can use that as a private key or calculate a private key to actually
1296
01:41:59.130 --> 01:42:04.270
decrypt the one signature that's valid. Now I have a valid transaction that I can spend on chain.
1297
01:42:04.650 --> 01:42:05.995
And, so it's all, like,
1298
01:42:06.475 --> 01:42:18.760
all all of your DLC logic is all happening off chain. So no one can tell, like, what your contract is or, you know, what the terms were, what Oracles you're using, or anything about it. All I can see is, you know, funds moved from multisig
1299
01:42:19.139 --> 01:42:21.159
to, you know, payout address.
1300
01:42:21.860 --> 01:42:23.480
Damn. Music to my ears.
1301
01:42:24.905 --> 01:42:25.405
Privacy
1302
01:42:25.785 --> 01:42:26.925
for the oracles.
1303
01:42:28.745 --> 01:42:30.765
I saw another question from Anthony,
1304
01:42:31.145 --> 01:42:32.605
in the chat asking,
1305
01:42:33.550 --> 01:42:35.409
how does Lightning fit into this?
1306
01:42:36.909 --> 01:42:48.665
Yeah. So, like, since these are all just, like, cryptographic stuff we're doing off chain, you can do it on literally any Bitcoin construction pretty much as long as signatures and multisig are possible, which should be in any Bitcoin,
1307
01:42:49.590 --> 01:42:54.070
you know, platform. So it can be done on Lightning. It can be done on Liquid. It can be done on,
1308
01:42:55.110 --> 01:42:59.875
you know, Ruben Thompson's fancy, like, atomic swaps off chain thing.
1309
01:43:00.735 --> 01:43:04.115
So, like, anything, like, you know, that has multisig and,
1310
01:43:04.895 --> 01:43:11.800
signatures can be done. And it's like since we're getting Xnort, you know, you get that inherently with anything that's using Xnort. So,
1311
01:43:13.060 --> 01:43:23.304
it'll be doable on lightning. You know, it might be a while before we can actually build out the proper tooling because we do need, well, we will need some snore on lightning to do it.
1312
01:43:23.960 --> 01:43:24.460
But,
1313
01:43:24.840 --> 01:43:28.139
you know, it's coming and, you know, it'll take a bit, but it's possible.
1314
01:43:28.760 --> 01:43:30.380
Now is that because we need PTLCs,
1315
01:43:30.840 --> 01:43:32.139
point in time lock contracts?
1316
01:43:32.795 --> 01:43:34.094
Yeah. Yeah. So you need,
1317
01:43:34.555 --> 01:43:35.055
PTLCs
1318
01:43:35.515 --> 01:43:44.390
to do it. I mean, you can do it without it, but, like, you know, you could do it, like, within a single channel. Like, if I had a Lightning channel to you, I could we could fill a contract on there.
1319
01:43:44.770 --> 01:43:55.145
But, you know, it's not the best you know, it's not really Lightning. Like, first of the Lightning, it's like routing payments across the network. And to do, like, a a contract route across the network, you need PTLCs.
1320
01:43:56.085 --> 01:44:00.265
So, because then here are just our points are just tweaked by
1321
01:44:00.680 --> 01:44:06.300
the, the Oracle's information. And then we get the signature, we get the correct information to claim the payment.
1322
01:44:08.040 --> 01:44:08.540
Damn.
1323
01:44:09.615 --> 01:44:18.835
Yeah. I mean, I think Let's be honest. Like, the fees right now are 300 sats per byte. Like, am I ever gonna make an on chain transaction ever again? Like, we need it. We need to work on lightning.
1324
01:44:19.440 --> 01:44:24.179
Yeah. Get get up to speed over there, SureDentz guys. Got it. Wow.
1325
01:44:24.560 --> 01:44:26.980
Are you up? Why why are you on the mic? On it.
1326
01:44:28.085 --> 01:44:30.265
I mean, a lot of it is, like, waiting on the
1327
01:44:30.885 --> 01:44:32.345
Sorry. A lot of
1328
01:44:33.685 --> 01:44:35.699
it? A lot No worries.
1329
01:44:36.239 --> 01:44:38.179
While I was waiting on the lightning implementations,
1330
01:44:38.480 --> 01:44:42.260
actually, because all these lightning implementations have, like, super heavy assumptions
1331
01:44:42.925 --> 01:44:46.145
that everything that is in a lightning channel is an HTLC.
1332
01:44:47.245 --> 01:44:47.485
And,
1333
01:44:48.765 --> 01:44:53.720
you know, to switch it to PTLCs or even more so to switch it to be anything, it's gonna take a lot of
1334
01:44:54.100 --> 01:45:04.605
work. But, you know, it's it's coming, and, eventually, we'll we'll have it. But, you know, there's gonna be a lot of really good work input in by, you know, like, the Lightning Labs team and c lightning team and all those guys.
1335
01:45:05.705 --> 01:45:06.845
So to the freaks
1336
01:45:07.969 --> 01:45:16.310
that are like, I'm just rolling my eyes. I'm glassy eyed. Like, they just keep saying DLCs over and over again. They're saying all these acronyms and shit. I don't understand.
1337
01:45:17.135 --> 01:45:19.074
Like, the cold hard truth is
1338
01:45:19.375 --> 01:45:21.875
gambling is a massive fucking industry.
1339
01:45:22.735 --> 01:45:24.195
The whole Shitcoin industry
1340
01:45:24.660 --> 01:45:26.120
sits on top of gambling.
1341
01:45:28.340 --> 01:45:32.600
Regardless of Bitcoin, separate from all the stuff we exist in,
1342
01:45:33.175 --> 01:45:35.275
gambling is already a massive industry.
1343
01:45:35.655 --> 01:45:36.155
DLCs
1344
01:45:36.535 --> 01:45:38.555
reduce that trust. It's gonna expand
1345
01:45:40.830 --> 01:45:43.330
the the ability for people to access gambling,
1346
01:45:43.950 --> 01:45:46.130
whether or not you agree with it morally.
1347
01:45:47.070 --> 01:46:00.510
It is going to allow more innovation. I mean, one of the things we talked about earlier was, you know, when you're at Guns and Bitcoin, you felt like the innovation was happening quicker than regulated companies, and that's what always happens. Right? If people are able to innovate on the fringes
1348
01:46:00.890 --> 01:46:02.430
without the friction of regulation,
1349
01:46:03.290 --> 01:46:20.340
you're gonna get cooler and cooler products. And this is kind of what this is going to do, I think, for gambling, whether that's I think I think the main thing is gonna be sports gambling. I think a big low hanging fruit is gonna be election gambling because in America, that's just straight up illegal, so you can't even have regulated companies offer that.
1350
01:46:21.520 --> 01:46:22.020
But
1351
01:46:22.445 --> 01:46:29.185
a lot of times, it gets pigeonholed into gambling, and what people don't realize is it's way bigger than that. And this is something that I fell in love with
1352
01:46:29.540 --> 01:46:31.000
as an early new corner,
1353
01:46:31.619 --> 01:46:34.920
that didn't know better, that thought Auger was gonna change the world,
1354
01:46:35.940 --> 01:46:41.045
is that this idea that if we can create a trust minimized scenario
1355
01:46:42.065 --> 01:46:43.365
where people can
1356
01:46:43.825 --> 01:46:47.365
essentially bet on what the weather is gonna be in in 3 days,
1357
01:46:48.600 --> 01:46:52.860
you are gonna start to get way more accurate predictions than we have today.
1358
01:46:53.240 --> 01:47:02.705
Because if you make an inaccurate prediction, you're gonna fucking lose money. And if you make an accurate prediction, you're gonna make money. And you compare that to, like, a weatherman's incentives currently,
1359
01:47:03.245 --> 01:47:05.985
and the weatherman's incentives currently are just like clickbait.
1360
01:47:06.540 --> 01:47:11.760
Right? But if the weather management centers are, like, tell you the weather as accurately as possible, it should be better.
1361
01:47:13.475 --> 01:47:18.455
Yeah. I think one of the great things too is, like, you know, like with Augur, you kinda have to, like, set up, like,
1362
01:47:19.315 --> 01:47:24.370
who's gonna be the oracle, and, like, those entities can get, like, regulated versus, like, with this.
1363
01:47:24.750 --> 01:47:30.290
You know, they can't tell who's who's using who as an Oracle and, like, you know and Oracle has almost,
1364
01:47:30.745 --> 01:47:40.620
like, 0 infrastructure to run. It's very, very simple to do. So, you know, it could be some dude with, like, dial up Internet in Nigeria, and he can still be an oracle just at the same capacity
1365
01:47:41.000 --> 01:47:52.505
that Coinbase can. But, you know, if this guy is putting out, like, signatures on things that are happening that Coinbase isn't willing to, you can trade a market and provide value to people that, Coinbase otherwise couldn't.
1366
01:47:56.750 --> 01:47:59.970
So it, like, really pushes that permissionless nature.
1367
01:48:00.590 --> 01:48:11.005
I mean, Augur tried to, quote, unquote solve the Oracle problem. Well, you guys are just, like, what if we just had, like, multiple trust minimized Oracles, and you just put them together in a fucking threshold.
1368
01:48:12.290 --> 01:48:16.230
Right? It's like, it's like my favorite one of my favorite fucking,
1369
01:48:17.730 --> 01:48:21.110
I don't know, fables. It's not even a fable. I don't even know. Learning
1370
01:48:21.795 --> 01:48:22.855
thing, case studies,
1371
01:48:23.235 --> 01:48:30.775
was growing up was, like, the Americans spent all this time trying to create, like, an a pen that worked in anti gravity, and the Russian just sent up a pencil.
1372
01:48:34.290 --> 01:48:35.330
Yeah. It's like,
1373
01:48:36.370 --> 01:48:41.425
we're just, like, kinda like, they tried to, like, you know, yeah, like I said, do this fancy thing where it's like, oh, let's just
1374
01:48:41.725 --> 01:48:45.665
do the simple thing of do it off chain and, just use multiple oracles.
1375
01:48:48.250 --> 01:48:49.630
Send up a fucking pencil.
1376
01:48:50.170 --> 01:48:53.935
We we get that same thing a lot from, like, the Chainlink guys. We're like, oh, we need this
1377
01:48:54.335 --> 01:49:00.595
fancy blockchain that, you know, has all these economic incentives in case the Oracle lies, and,
1378
01:49:01.030 --> 01:49:28.179
you know, I wanna strike them if they lie, but, you know, we have to then build the system where the richest guy might be able to change the actual outcome of what the oracle does. And, you know, it it it creates just, like, all these games versus, like, DLCs is, like, just have the user pick the oracles they trust. And, it's just, like, keep it simple, keep it stupid. Like, you know, use articles you want and, execute your contract however you want. Like, you don't need to build all these fancy systems that have blockchains and stuff.
1379
01:49:31.665 --> 01:49:32.165
100%.
1380
01:49:33.825 --> 01:49:36.565
So discrete log contracts. Do you think,
1381
01:49:37.170 --> 01:49:39.969
do should we talk about anything else in this subject? Or
1382
01:49:44.025 --> 01:49:44.605
I mean,
1383
01:49:44.985 --> 01:49:55.320
so we should have a client out soon ish for people to actually try out. This American Huddl, Peter McCormick bet, like, put a fire on their ass to actually get something useful
1384
01:49:55.780 --> 01:49:56.840
for people to use.
1385
01:49:57.460 --> 01:50:05.485
So, I've like, I've been doing GUI work basically this entire week and, and then, like, cleaning up some stuff in the back end to make it more user friendly. So, hopefully,
1386
01:50:05.864 --> 01:50:14.390
like, sometime at, like, maybe we can get next month. We'll have something that people can actually download and use. So if you guys actually wanna use this stuff, it'll actually be actionable
1387
01:50:15.170 --> 01:50:16.775
if you wanna pay on chain fees.
1388
01:50:17.655 --> 01:50:26.475
Yeah. I mean, we need to get this shit on lightning. Otherwise, no one's gonna fucking use it. But, I I do appreciate you guys getting client out because, I mean, I do kinda feel like a lot of this is just
1389
01:50:27.880 --> 01:50:38.675
us just talking about it over and over again. It's just, like, it's not accessible. Right? Like, at the end of the day, like, I was, like, so upset, and this is not against you guys. I mean, because I think you guys have actually been moving pretty fast.
1390
01:50:40.895 --> 01:50:44.435
But, like, there was no easy way to bet on the election
1391
01:50:45.080 --> 01:50:45.820
this cycle
1392
01:50:46.599 --> 01:50:47.340
with Bitcoin.
1393
01:50:47.880 --> 01:50:55.685
I mean, in, like, a trust minimized way. Right? And I just I feel like that should just have been a thing. Like, that should just have been a very low hanging fruit thing.
1394
01:50:57.425 --> 01:51:01.284
So, yeah. I mean, I'm looking forward to, like, more accessible options for people,
1395
01:51:02.340 --> 01:51:06.840
in terms of of that. And it's kinda funny coming from the guy who's talking about, you know,
1396
01:51:07.699 --> 01:51:10.760
being conservative and dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin.
1397
01:51:12.365 --> 01:51:13.825
We all know you're a gambler. Gambling's
1398
01:51:15.165 --> 01:51:19.265
fun. I would have not have discovered Bitcoin if it wasn't for gambling, but what what
1399
01:51:20.060 --> 01:51:26.160
what got me on Bitcoin was fucking Black Tuesday where they took out all the gambling sites by going for their funding methods.
1400
01:51:26.955 --> 01:51:27.775
And I was like,
1401
01:51:28.235 --> 01:51:32.575
fuck. Like, if this if this thing just does US gambling, it's worth something.
1402
01:51:33.755 --> 01:51:37.870
That value prop was immediately clear to me, and then I figured out the rest afterwards.
1403
01:51:38.410 --> 01:51:46.030
Just like a a fun little factoid, and, by the way, cheers to all the ride or dies that are still here with us live 2 hours in.
1404
01:51:46.715 --> 01:51:48.895
Like, this is where the fun part happens live,
1405
01:51:49.275 --> 01:51:54.494
so I appreciate you guys being here. Just a little factoid, I mean, this show was almost called the Discrete Log.
1406
01:51:55.140 --> 01:51:56.120
I own the domains.
1407
01:51:56.660 --> 01:51:57.160
So,
1408
01:51:58.820 --> 01:52:02.615
I thought that would have been a fun name, but it was a little bit too insular, so I didn't go with it.
1409
01:52:03.095 --> 01:52:11.860
That's a that's a good one name. It's clever. Right? But the problem is is, like, how do you spell discreet? Everyone spells it wrong with log. So do you spell it, like,
1410
01:52:12.239 --> 01:52:13.619
discreet as in discretion?
1411
01:52:14.159 --> 01:52:18.420
And I have both, and I didn't know which to do, so I just didn't do either.
1412
01:52:18.865 --> 01:52:20.805
And that's where that's where we stand.
1413
01:52:23.505 --> 01:52:24.005
So
1414
01:52:25.425 --> 01:52:27.350
great conversation so far, guys.
1415
01:52:28.150 --> 01:52:36.090
We have a freak in the chat, and the chat has run away from me, so I don't remember who it is. So I apologize to you, freak,
1416
01:52:37.655 --> 01:52:38.155
asking
1417
01:52:38.535 --> 01:52:41.675
about we're gonna go back to transaction fees because fuck it.
1418
01:52:43.175 --> 01:52:46.235
An empty block was mined while all these transaction fees
1419
01:52:46.690 --> 01:52:51.750
are just super expensive. Why did that happen? Why is that okay? Why shouldn't we be freaking out about it?
1420
01:52:55.545 --> 01:52:58.205
Generally, empty blocks are mined, like
1421
01:52:58.824 --> 01:53:00.644
like, seconds after,
1422
01:53:01.385 --> 01:53:03.610
another block was previously mined.
1423
01:53:03.990 --> 01:53:05.770
And, generally, this is because, like, the,
1424
01:53:06.230 --> 01:53:08.010
like, the mining software hasn't
1425
01:53:08.710 --> 01:53:11.290
fully, like, caught up and found all the
1426
01:53:11.645 --> 01:53:13.665
transactions that was included in the block.
1427
01:53:14.045 --> 01:53:20.225
So it's it's still, like you know, it's gonna use those couple seconds to continue mining on an empty block just so it's not wasting,
1428
01:53:21.050 --> 01:53:31.855
time. So, like, generally, that's where they accidentally mine a or not accidentally, but they'll mine a, you know, an empty block just because they they have, like, a couple seconds to mine on an empty block, and they'd rather waste
1429
01:53:32.315 --> 01:53:39.170
it running on empty block than, you know, not mine at all. They're not really wasting money. Right? Because they still have the block reward.
1430
01:53:39.790 --> 01:53:45.155
Yeah. Yeah. You know, maybe as that goes away, it might be worth to wait. But, I don't think that, you know.
1431
01:53:45.474 --> 01:53:50.534
Yeah. As the ratio changes. Right? As the ratio shifts, that probably will happen less.
1432
01:53:51.155 --> 01:53:53.014
You just kinda have to wait it out. Right?
1433
01:53:53.795 --> 01:53:54.695
Yeah. Definitely.
1434
01:53:58.900 --> 01:53:59.400
Yeah.
1435
01:54:01.140 --> 01:54:05.255
I mean, we had another freak asking if he should buy today or he should wait till tomorrow.
1436
01:54:06.435 --> 01:54:07.415
Like, are we
1437
01:54:08.355 --> 01:54:11.475
how how do we how do we feel about that? Are we bullish on the price? I mean, I
1438
01:54:12.290 --> 01:54:17.510
if any freaks have been paying attention, I've been kind of outspoken. I'm extremely fucking bullish right now.
1439
01:54:20.985 --> 01:54:22.925
Am I am I
1440
01:54:24.665 --> 01:54:28.765
am I wrong in that? Or are you guys bullish? Are you guys feeling the FOMO?
1441
01:54:29.440 --> 01:54:37.219
Or am I just, like, completely on cloud 9 over here? I think we're both very bullish. I think for whoever's asking, you should probably be dollar cost averaging,
1442
01:54:37.520 --> 01:54:40.785
you know, know, whatever makes most sense for you daily, weekly, monthly
1443
01:54:41.245 --> 01:54:42.705
as you get paid. I don't know.
1444
01:54:44.365 --> 01:54:46.860
But, yeah, Ben, where how high do you see this thing going by,
1445
01:54:48.940 --> 01:54:50.560
let's say, end of the year?
1446
01:54:51.580 --> 01:54:53.600
I love price prediction. I have
1447
01:54:54.025 --> 01:54:58.205
I have a couple of bets that'll it'll go up to 500 k by end of the year.
1448
01:54:59.304 --> 01:55:01.225
You know, it's I'm just betting a stake, but,
1449
01:55:01.945 --> 01:55:03.005
I think it happened.
1450
01:55:04.230 --> 01:55:08.010
I like I like that number. That's, like, that's been my number recently.
1451
01:55:08.950 --> 01:55:09.910
That's like the way
1452
01:55:10.790 --> 01:55:12.650
I I'll say my bet,
1453
01:55:13.635 --> 01:55:20.135
given it it can still hit 500 k at the end of the cycle, which I think is gonna run into early next year. But I think
1454
01:55:20.940 --> 01:55:22.000
end of 2021,
1455
01:55:22.540 --> 01:55:24.320
the price is gonna be exactly
1456
01:55:26.460 --> 01:55:26.960
$420,000
1457
01:55:29.094 --> 01:55:29.594
609
1458
01:55:30.135 --> 01:55:31.915
no. 6 wait. Wait. $420,696.15.
1459
01:55:36.054 --> 01:55:36.955
That's my prediction.
1460
01:55:37.270 --> 01:55:38.489
Wait. What was it?
1461
01:55:39.190 --> 01:55:39.690
$420,696.15.
1462
01:55:44.630 --> 01:55:46.409
By by December 31st?
1463
01:55:46.885 --> 01:55:47.625
Yep. Correct.
1464
01:55:48.245 --> 01:55:49.705
Yeah. It seems bearish.
1465
01:55:51.125 --> 01:55:53.305
It might be. It might be. I honestly
1466
01:55:54.270 --> 01:56:02.130
Wow. That's a beautiful number. You have the 420 of the 69, and you have the 6.15 now that we had Cortic put it in actual text. Thank you, brother. Yes.
1467
01:56:02.805 --> 01:56:03.385
I think,
1468
01:56:03.765 --> 01:56:12.480
that's the ballpark for what I'm aiming for. I mean, we've got the crazy year. We've got all the momentum behind us. Is that part in the cycle?
1469
01:56:13.020 --> 01:56:18.880
And then you got all this crap going on macro wise, like, who how much money has been printed
1470
01:56:19.180 --> 01:56:34.550
in the last year. It's out of control. So, I mean, like, people ask me. They go, Matt, you know, you try and focus on the technology. You know, you're in it for the tech. You care about sovereignty. You care about privacy. You know? Why are you always talking about Bitcoin price predictions?
1471
01:56:34.930 --> 01:56:36.790
And I think in, like, a bull market,
1472
01:56:37.145 --> 01:56:38.445
we're getting inundated
1473
01:56:38.985 --> 01:56:40.844
by so much fucking noise,
1474
01:56:42.344 --> 01:56:46.685
from mostly shit corners, but also from, like, some, you know, charlatan Bitcoiners,
1475
01:56:47.930 --> 01:56:50.430
that I think it's imperative on us
1476
01:56:50.890 --> 01:56:51.630
that we
1477
01:56:52.570 --> 01:56:54.510
that we bring our price predictions
1478
01:56:55.165 --> 01:57:00.304
to the fold to just show the kind of urgency. Like, I feel like there's urgency here. I think
1479
01:57:01.005 --> 01:57:01.985
I think there's,
1480
01:57:03.179 --> 01:57:16.135
like, I'm watching all of these things unfold, and we're about to hit billionaire FOMO. We're about to hit corporate FOMO. We're about to hit government FOMO. Right? And, like, I would like the plebs to have as much as possible, and I don't wanna say told you so
1481
01:57:16.835 --> 01:57:17.895
at fucking $700,000,
1482
01:57:18.800 --> 01:57:19.300
$800,000.
1483
01:57:19.680 --> 01:57:28.660
I don't wanna say told you so at that point. Like, that's not satisfying to me. I would like them to get in now, and I just wanna shut the fuck up when we hit that those prices. Right?
1484
01:57:29.825 --> 01:57:34.305
Yeah. I'd rather you stack, like, it's gonna be 500 k by end of the year than,
1485
01:57:34.785 --> 01:57:45.130
you don't like, you stack, like, you know, maybe your actual prediction is a 100 k by end of year and, you know, maybe you won't stack as much by then. You know? Give out the most bullish number because, you know, it's going to infinity
1486
01:57:45.844 --> 01:57:54.025
by, eventually. So as long as you can now. If if you're in this game, you should be in the game at least 4 years, at least 8 years, whatever,
1487
01:57:55.110 --> 01:57:56.730
probably longer. So
1488
01:57:57.110 --> 01:58:03.850
whatever you're doing short term shouldn't really matter as much. So just, you know, accumulate as much as you can responsibly,
1489
01:58:05.615 --> 01:58:06.755
as quickly as possible.
1490
01:58:08.335 --> 01:58:08.835
So
1491
01:58:10.495 --> 01:58:15.350
100% cosign that one. I'll tell you, I do have I did not stack hard enough.
1492
01:58:17.010 --> 01:58:17.910
I I
1493
01:58:18.370 --> 01:58:21.830
I should have stacked harder. The the timeline was shorter than I realized,
1494
01:58:24.295 --> 01:58:26.155
and this is coming from a perm bull.
1495
01:58:26.855 --> 01:58:27.355
So,
1496
01:58:29.735 --> 01:58:39.280
it is what it is. Keep stacking. I'm just fucking stacking as hard as possible right now, and I do really I really do think, like, it's just I mean, if if you just
1497
01:58:39.585 --> 01:58:43.205
if you think that things can't change quickly in a major way,
1498
01:58:43.985 --> 01:58:46.165
where the fuck were you for the last year?
1499
01:58:47.159 --> 01:58:49.739
Like, fucking, our whole world changed on us,
1500
01:58:51.080 --> 01:58:57.325
and it happened very fucking quickly, gradually then suddenly, right, as our as our boy, Parker says.
1501
01:58:58.905 --> 01:59:05.485
So, I mean, before we end this this this great discussion, I mean, I really wanna talk about privacy in a high fee environment.
1502
01:59:09.050 --> 01:59:10.350
You know, I've been
1503
01:59:11.450 --> 01:59:16.035
a big advocate of of Bitcoin users taking back their privacy.
1504
01:59:19.055 --> 01:59:28.059
One thing that I haven't heard yet from the compliance pros, but they really dropped the ball on this. And I'm only mentioning it now because we're 2 hours in, so you know they didn't make it this far.
1505
01:59:29.965 --> 01:59:30.465
Yeah.
1506
01:59:31.165 --> 01:59:35.585
Is Oh, the good stuff. Right? Is is the high fee environment.
1507
01:59:36.285 --> 01:59:37.905
Right? High fees,
1508
01:59:38.470 --> 01:59:39.930
BlockFi users unaffected.
1509
01:59:40.230 --> 01:59:41.530
They still get their 6%.
1510
01:59:43.110 --> 01:59:43.610
So
1511
01:59:45.190 --> 01:59:49.305
where where do we stand in terms of if this is
1512
01:59:49.685 --> 01:59:55.385
if this is the new normal, if the new normal is over 50 sats per byte for the next year and a half,
1513
01:59:57.740 --> 02:00:00.080
which I think is, like, a relatively conservative
1514
02:00:00.780 --> 02:00:05.905
ish estimate, 50 sats per byte. People would die for 50 Sats per byte right now.
1515
02:00:06.445 --> 02:00:09.025
Where do we see privacy in that kind of environment?
1516
02:00:11.620 --> 02:00:20.615
I mean, I know, I used to have a bunch of stuff going through join market and, like, the like, once the mempool stopped clearing, all the liquidity just dried up. And,
1517
02:00:21.815 --> 02:00:26.635
so I know it like, you know, joint market sucks now. There's, like, nowhere to generate fees.
1518
02:00:27.120 --> 02:00:27.600
And,
1519
02:00:28.080 --> 02:00:31.780
I'm looking at Wasabi right now. There's 20 registered peers for the next,
1520
02:00:33.200 --> 02:00:39.644
next coin join. So it's like, you know, all these coin join stuff, like, you know, it it's really taken a hit with all the, the
1521
02:00:40.065 --> 02:00:41.545
It's expensive and spot.
1522
02:00:42.645 --> 02:00:44.505
Yeah. And, like, I mean, the
1523
02:00:44.885 --> 02:00:45.945
the, the
1524
02:00:46.480 --> 02:00:51.060
coordinator fees are already expensive. And now this is, you know, just adding on in the, you know
1525
02:00:52.160 --> 02:00:54.980
I I hope we figure out other ways to
1526
02:00:55.575 --> 02:00:59.035
to do Bitcoin privately in a more efficient way, but, yeah,
1527
02:00:59.735 --> 02:01:01.275
it kinda sucks right now.
1528
02:01:04.220 --> 02:01:05.920
Yeah. It's it's not great for,
1529
02:01:06.460 --> 02:01:07.520
these sort of things.
1530
02:01:08.460 --> 02:01:14.965
I don't really know what the solution is gonna be long term. Is people do are people just gonna mix during the bare
1531
02:01:15.665 --> 02:01:16.405
fee cycles
1532
02:01:17.185 --> 02:01:23.950
or whatnot? It seems like part of the solution will be some of these privacy tools being developed on 2nd layers.
1533
02:01:25.210 --> 02:01:25.790
You know,
1534
02:01:26.810 --> 02:01:31.575
Lightning already has some properties to make it more private than on chain, at least.
1535
02:01:31.955 --> 02:01:33.715
How do we take that to the next level?
1536
02:01:34.995 --> 02:01:39.250
Then, you know, Matt, I think you were sort of alluding to this on Twitter. Like,
1537
02:01:39.790 --> 02:01:43.810
what if some sort of coin join comes to l two on liquid,
1538
02:01:44.175 --> 02:01:45.635
and what does that look like?
1539
02:01:46.255 --> 02:01:49.695
That would be interesting too, but you also need to be,
1540
02:01:50.095 --> 02:02:00.239
cautious of, the peg ins and peg outs both on lightning and on liquid as data can be revealed there. So it's not really a super straightforward thing
1541
02:02:00.780 --> 02:02:02.715
unless you're at least on those layers.
1542
02:02:03.175 --> 02:02:05.435
The concern there is timing analysis. Right?
1543
02:02:07.574 --> 02:02:14.410
Yeah. By and large is timing analysis. I would say that's first and foremost, but I'm sure there's some other data that gets leaked in the pegs.
1544
02:02:15.110 --> 02:02:16.650
I think things like pay
1545
02:02:16.950 --> 02:02:23.655
pay join, like, really shine in these moments where, like, you know, it's like, I'm already making a payment to, like, this PTC pay server,
1546
02:02:23.955 --> 02:02:29.820
but now I'm just doing it in a private way where, you know, we're mixing funds and, like, hiding the amount we're actually sending.
1547
02:02:31.160 --> 02:02:36.540
So, like, things like that, like, you know, you're already been making a transaction. You're not, like, doing actual transactions to add privacy.
1548
02:02:36.885 --> 02:02:50.000
So, like, stuff like that aids in a lot where, you know, you're you're gonna do a transaction in any way, so we may as well add some privacy to it. So, hopefully, those certainly implemented more, like or just invented where we have, like, ways to do,
1549
02:02:50.619 --> 02:02:56.864
like, private transactions. We're doing a transaction anyways instead of, like, having to do extra transactions to add privacy to your stack.
1550
02:02:58.605 --> 02:02:59.745
Right. Because
1551
02:03:00.925 --> 02:03:05.870
yeah. But but pay join is is you're just making you're you're making your regular transaction anyway,
1552
02:03:06.970 --> 02:03:11.470
and you break a heuristic. But with CoinJoin, you're you're already making extra transactions.
1553
02:03:12.204 --> 02:03:13.905
I just I just feel like
1554
02:03:17.324 --> 02:03:17.824
I
1555
02:03:19.260 --> 02:03:22.400
like, right now, I'm not making any on chain transactions, period.
1556
02:03:23.180 --> 02:03:24.480
I just won't do it.
1557
02:03:25.180 --> 02:03:36.225
I'm gonna I'm waiting and seeing. But maybe I get my hand forced if the fee environment continues. Right? So maybe that maybe that dynamic changes. Maybe this is because it's, like, a sudden type of thing.
1558
02:03:37.390 --> 02:03:39.730
I do think lightning will help a lot.
1559
02:03:40.670 --> 02:03:41.170
To
1560
02:03:41.470 --> 02:03:42.770
to Evan's point,
1561
02:03:43.605 --> 02:03:46.025
I really feel like what we need is,
1562
02:03:48.965 --> 02:03:51.145
and and this is why I mentioned it with Liquid,
1563
02:03:52.020 --> 02:03:53.640
is, first of all, with Liquid,
1564
02:03:54.340 --> 02:04:03.114
you know, you you have worse trust assumptions. Right? Like, you're trusting the federation to a degree, and I and we should let's dive into Liquid a little bit. You're trusting the federation to a degree.
1565
02:04:04.295 --> 02:04:08.315
It's almost like a quasi custodial, but it's custodial in a multisig environment.
1566
02:04:08.989 --> 02:04:16.910
There's some questions there about when it drops down to a 2 of 3 that's just controlled by Blockstream, where then it's just custodial in a regular environment. Mhmm.
1567
02:04:17.870 --> 02:04:18.370
But
1568
02:04:19.135 --> 02:04:25.474
the on chain fee burden is is way easier to conceptualize than a Lightning situation. Because with Lightning,
1569
02:04:25.990 --> 02:04:38.975
you have all these channels, you're managing these different channels, and you don't know if they're gonna close on you or not. Right? And this is what we talked about earlier with 6102, right, where there's some level of trust. Does that channel partner close on you in the worst possible fucking time?
1570
02:04:41.275 --> 02:04:47.810
The with with Liquid, it's like you only pay that on chain fee when you swap back, and you pick when you swap back.
1571
02:04:48.989 --> 02:04:49.489
So
1572
02:04:50.645 --> 02:04:52.345
my biggest concern is
1573
02:04:53.125 --> 02:04:55.065
users that have large amounts
1574
02:04:55.445 --> 02:04:55.945
of
1575
02:04:56.325 --> 02:04:57.145
of UTXOs,
1576
02:04:57.810 --> 02:05:04.710
right, that that need consolidating in a relatively private way. And that's not a very ease it's not an easy thing to do.
1577
02:05:06.395 --> 02:05:08.815
There's there's no real easy way to do that.
1578
02:05:09.355 --> 02:05:13.775
Some people will claim that Wabi Sabi, the upcoming Wasabi 2.0, will
1579
02:05:14.080 --> 02:05:18.980
will solve that use case. I'll believe it when I see it. I commend them for working on it.
1580
02:05:21.475 --> 02:05:25.175
But in my mind, like, if they you had some kind of client that just
1581
02:05:26.114 --> 02:05:26.614
randomly
1582
02:05:26.915 --> 02:05:31.300
pegged into liquid and then shuffled forever until you stopped it,
1583
02:05:32.500 --> 02:05:39.695
could kind of end up in a situation where you're able to but is that, like, just too complicated? Is that just too difficult? Is is that just
1584
02:05:40.815 --> 02:05:41.635
I don't know.
1585
02:05:42.175 --> 02:05:43.635
What are your guys thoughts in here?
1586
02:05:47.190 --> 02:05:50.969
Yeah. I mean, there's just, like, a lot of complexities there and, like, you know,
1587
02:05:51.510 --> 02:05:55.130
none of the stuff is implemented, so it's gonna be a while before it actually comes out.
1588
02:05:55.590 --> 02:05:56.070
And,
1589
02:05:56.775 --> 02:05:59.915
yeah. I mean, like, being able to, like, use liquid to mix
1590
02:06:00.534 --> 02:06:02.954
would be, like, awesome. But also, it's like,
1591
02:06:03.255 --> 02:06:08.670
you know, how many people are actually using liquid? You know, if you're the one guy that's mix on liquid, you're not really getting privacy.
1592
02:06:09.290 --> 02:06:10.030
So you
1593
02:06:10.810 --> 02:06:15.790
you need, like, to, like, build up, you know, another, and then reset over, you know, over there. And
1594
02:06:17.215 --> 02:06:20.435
so, yeah, I think it would be awesome if we actually implement all this stuff. But,
1595
02:06:21.455 --> 02:06:23.955
you know, there's not really a lot of incentives
1596
02:06:24.415 --> 02:06:24.915
to
1597
02:06:25.980 --> 02:06:30.640
to do it yet just because, like, no one really uses liquid, so you're not there's no crowd to hide among.
1598
02:06:31.179 --> 02:06:37.925
But, you know, if a bunch of exchanges start implementing liquid to save on fees, which, you know, they might actually do right now with all this,
1599
02:06:38.945 --> 02:06:41.925
you know, stuff going on, maybe they will, but, you know,
1600
02:06:42.625 --> 02:06:43.605
hopefully soon.
1601
02:06:45.330 --> 02:06:47.830
Yeah. I mean, pretty much no one's using liquid right now.
1602
02:06:49.170 --> 02:06:53.735
Nope. Rookie numbers, we gotta pump them up. But you can apply now.
1603
02:06:54.115 --> 02:06:54.775
Oh, sorry.
1604
02:06:55.155 --> 02:06:56.855
Yeah. I mean, we've you got under
1605
02:06:57.155 --> 02:07:02.250
70,000,000 on lightning network too. Right now in liquid, you get 0.1 sat per
1606
02:07:02.630 --> 02:07:06.410
byte. So, like, if this fee bump doesn't do it, what fucking does it?
1607
02:07:09.405 --> 02:07:13.645
I mean, we'll see. I mean, not we don't have that many exchanges supporting it. I'm not trying to, like
1608
02:07:14.740 --> 02:07:19.800
guys, I I'm a fucking hyperbole. Like, I think, like, Bitcoin pumps like fucking crazy.
1609
02:07:20.260 --> 02:07:21.000
I just,
1610
02:07:23.454 --> 02:07:32.580
you know, as as a as a sovereign user, I just wonder how that affects me and how we how we work from here, right, like, in this kind of environment. That's all.
1611
02:07:38.880 --> 02:07:39.380
Well,
1612
02:07:40.735 --> 02:07:41.875
I love you both.
1613
02:07:45.455 --> 02:07:53.830
I mean, do you do either of you guys I don't wanna extend this longer than it than it needs to be extended. I mean, I think this has been a great conversation. Do either of you guys have, you know,
1614
02:07:54.610 --> 02:07:57.585
any last things you wanna talk about before we wrap this thing up?
1615
02:07:59.185 --> 02:08:04.305
I wanted to talk more to Evan about ossification because he still thinks Yes. He's he thinks,
1616
02:08:04.705 --> 02:08:06.725
we're not gonna ossify after Taproot,
1617
02:08:07.110 --> 02:08:08.329
and I think we might.
1618
02:08:09.110 --> 02:08:14.409
So the only chain that is fully ossified so far is Dogecoin, and it's pumping like fuck. So,
1619
02:08:15.829 --> 02:08:16.570
do we
1620
02:08:17.215 --> 02:08:17.875
do we
1621
02:08:19.855 --> 02:08:23.074
if is Bitcoin gonna ossify after Taproot?
1622
02:08:23.534 --> 02:08:24.594
Is that okay?
1623
02:08:24.895 --> 02:08:25.715
Do we want
1624
02:08:26.160 --> 02:08:26.900
more development?
1625
02:08:27.440 --> 02:08:30.739
Is this Bitcoin gonna survive? Let's talk about this. Okay. So
1626
02:08:31.120 --> 02:08:32.100
first of all,
1627
02:08:32.719 --> 02:08:33.540
has Dogecoin
1628
02:08:34.735 --> 02:08:40.835
really ossified? I mean, as it stands right now, there's no activities. Probably hasn't gone to upgrades since, what, 2014
1629
02:08:41.775 --> 02:08:42.680
or something, 2016?
1630
02:08:43.240 --> 02:08:49.340
Literally the definition of ossification. Like, there's no no one's fucking working on it. But there's a possibility
1631
02:08:49.880 --> 02:08:51.420
that, you know, let's say,
1632
02:08:51.915 --> 02:08:52.635
more institutions
1633
02:08:53.114 --> 02:08:54.335
Right. Or whatever,
1634
02:08:54.954 --> 02:08:57.855
more basketball teams are using it for merge. Like,
1635
02:08:58.715 --> 02:09:05.680
is there anything really stopping the developers from getting it rolling again and adding SegWid and adding Taproot, etcetera, etcetera?
1636
02:09:06.860 --> 02:09:18.265
I mean, I don't I don't think anyone's actually there's no proper Doze corners out there. Like, there's no one running a Dogecoin node and, like, giving a shit. I I I know. Actually, that is been miserable. I had to
1637
02:09:18.620 --> 02:09:22.800
sync up a Dogecoin node for a friend who had some bags he had to offload.
1638
02:09:23.420 --> 02:09:25.360
And, man, you can't even do it
1639
02:09:25.795 --> 02:09:29.175
practically without using, like, a torrent that gets you
1640
02:09:29.635 --> 02:09:43.855
the majority of the blockchain and just getting, like, the last 2 weeks. It's It's a broken chain. They're all on Robinhood and, like, Binance, and they're keeping on exchange. I mean, there's another aspect there, by the way. Like, I think Litecoin might be fucked because they're merge mined, and no one's really talking about
1641
02:09:44.395 --> 02:09:46.015
that. But I you know,
1642
02:09:46.395 --> 02:09:47.855
we can continue on the ossification.
1643
02:09:48.510 --> 02:09:53.330
Most coins that are proof of work that aren't Bitcoin are fucked, irregardless.
1644
02:09:55.630 --> 02:09:56.130
True.
1645
02:09:56.915 --> 02:09:58.215
So let's talk about ossification.
1646
02:10:00.275 --> 02:10:03.975
So, Ben, what what do we need to get in before you'd be happy with everything ossifying?
1647
02:10:05.310 --> 02:10:06.290
What is ossification?
1648
02:10:06.750 --> 02:10:14.290
Well, let's well, for the freaks real quick, ossification is when nothing changes. We're done. The the protocol's done. We're good. Never change again.
1649
02:10:15.695 --> 02:10:17.295
Hit it, Ben. Yeah.
1650
02:10:17.935 --> 02:10:18.575
I think,
1651
02:10:18.895 --> 02:10:21.235
we definitely want Taproot. We definitely want,
1652
02:10:22.415 --> 02:10:23.635
Sigash, AnyProvout.
1653
02:10:24.400 --> 02:10:30.340
Yes. So let us do fancy things like l 2 and make lightning a lot better. Hell, yes. We want we want,
1654
02:10:33.255 --> 02:10:34.235
aggregate signatures
1655
02:10:35.015 --> 02:10:38.555
so we can have coin joins be cheaper than regular transactions.
1656
02:10:41.910 --> 02:10:47.930
I'll check template verify would be cool. I don't think that's a must have, but it would make things like vaults
1657
02:10:48.390 --> 02:10:49.690
a lot easier to do.
1658
02:10:51.015 --> 02:10:53.915
Otherwise, I don't know. I think, like, just getting,
1659
02:10:54.775 --> 02:10:56.395
signature aggregation and
1660
02:10:57.600 --> 02:10:59.380
any prevail would be monumentous.
1661
02:11:01.840 --> 02:11:06.260
Hell, yeah. Now cross input signature aggregation, do you think we're gonna ever get that?
1662
02:11:06.625 --> 02:11:06.864
And,
1663
02:11:08.304 --> 02:11:14.324
if it does come to fruition and we have a good solution for it that people agree on, do you think there will be pushback
1664
02:11:14.710 --> 02:11:18.469
from any major institutions because of the privacy enhancements it,
1665
02:11:19.110 --> 02:11:19.929
sort of enables?
1666
02:11:21.110 --> 02:11:27.614
People, I mean, people say this about Taproot, and it's, like, not true at all. I don't I don't think people would say it about that. Like,
1667
02:11:29.195 --> 02:11:32.975
I don't know. I get it would add privacy enhancements. It's also you could just say, like,
1668
02:11:33.360 --> 02:11:34.020
it makes
1669
02:11:34.640 --> 02:11:38.100
transactions cheaper. Like, that's why we're doing it. You know? Like,
1670
02:11:38.480 --> 02:11:43.025
it's really not like making transactions more private. It's just changing the incentives to do
1671
02:11:43.585 --> 02:11:44.485
larger transact
1672
02:11:44.945 --> 02:11:48.485
yeah. It's like to do larger transactions which, you know, coin joints are.
1673
02:11:49.105 --> 02:11:49.605
So,
1674
02:11:50.465 --> 02:11:51.605
I don't know. I mean,
1675
02:11:52.290 --> 02:11:58.070
and even if they do wanna try and stop it, like, you know, they tried that with Segway and didn't do too well. So,
1676
02:11:58.450 --> 02:11:59.590
you know, good luck.
1677
02:12:01.135 --> 02:12:03.475
Yeah. I mean, you hear a lot
1678
02:12:03.855 --> 02:12:07.955
from camps that are, like, saying, okay. Bitcoin's been taken over by corporations,
1679
02:12:08.335 --> 02:12:12.540
and because of this real privacy enhancements cannot come to the train.
1680
02:12:13.080 --> 02:12:15.340
And, I think that's a complete fiction.
1681
02:12:15.935 --> 02:12:18.995
And I think that we're seeing this play out with Taproot, and I think
1682
02:12:19.855 --> 02:12:22.255
something similar can play out with,
1683
02:12:22.735 --> 02:12:24.355
cross input signature aggregation.
1684
02:12:25.910 --> 02:12:30.730
And, I think once we get those two things in, you know, we're talking about a whole different ballgame.
1685
02:12:32.230 --> 02:12:35.050
You know, why why wouldn't you come and join us? It's gonna be cheaper.
1686
02:12:37.465 --> 02:12:43.890
Yeah. So, Evan, do you think Tapiri is the last soft fork? Because, like, the way I see it is, like,
1687
02:12:44.290 --> 02:12:54.435
you know, everyone agrees, like or, like basically, like, 99.99% of people are, like, down with Taproot and want it. It's just the activation method that people are, like, arguing over.
1688
02:12:55.695 --> 02:12:56.594
So it's like,
1689
02:12:57.054 --> 02:12:57.955
do we have
1690
02:12:58.335 --> 02:13:01.074
ossification just because of activation methods, or
1691
02:13:01.480 --> 02:13:06.699
are we are we gonna are we, like, you know, maybe and actually doing, like, say, cache ID prove out and, like,
1692
02:13:07.239 --> 02:13:13.795
are we gonna you know, we'll still figure it out just because everyone wants this thing and the activation method, you know, isn't
1693
02:13:14.175 --> 02:13:18.330
a permanent change to the protocol. It's just, like, you know, while we're signaling for activation.
1694
02:13:19.270 --> 02:13:24.969
So I think, like, we still could, you know, move on from this, but I think you're saying otherwise, at least, at the bar.
1695
02:13:29.054 --> 02:13:30.755
No. I think I think that
1696
02:13:32.895 --> 02:13:35.074
we've sort of proven that
1697
02:13:35.840 --> 02:13:40.739
this is a blockchain for the people and, you know, the people who use it.
1698
02:13:44.204 --> 02:13:45.105
Yeah. I mean,
1699
02:13:46.045 --> 02:13:52.704
big features like that, there's I think there's always gonna be enough people fighting for and and championing and and trying to figure out.
1700
02:13:54.170 --> 02:13:56.030
It's it's gonna be with, like,
1701
02:13:57.210 --> 02:14:03.035
more minute upgrades that see more pushback. It's like, okay. Do we really need this, or are the gains really,
1702
02:14:04.215 --> 02:14:09.275
that much of a difference maker? And and I don't think you'd say the same about Taproot or
1703
02:14:10.310 --> 02:14:13.130
signature aggregation. I I think those are are really
1704
02:14:14.790 --> 02:14:17.930
game changers for lack of a different phrase.
1705
02:14:21.515 --> 02:14:22.255
Do you
1706
02:14:24.475 --> 02:14:25.615
is is ossification
1707
02:14:25.995 --> 02:14:29.100
even possible for something that is actually used?
1708
02:14:33.420 --> 02:14:36.560
See, that's the thing. Like, I also foresee that Bitcoin
1709
02:14:37.365 --> 02:14:42.345
can be something where, okay, the upgrades or changes, they really slow down. But
1710
02:14:43.045 --> 02:14:44.825
if someone comes along
1711
02:14:45.445 --> 02:14:46.345
with a,
1712
02:14:47.430 --> 02:14:52.810
you know, great upgrade or or a great discovery in terms of cryptography or whatnot,
1713
02:14:53.190 --> 02:15:00.095
people are gonna still want that to go in as long as, like you said, people are using it. And it's not a ghost fucking train like Dogecoin is.
1714
02:15:00.475 --> 02:15:03.055
Yeah. No one uses Dogecoin. So so the
1715
02:15:04.795 --> 02:15:06.655
my my basis of
1716
02:15:07.000 --> 02:15:13.179
of my so called Bitcoin maximalism. Right? So so where does my conviction come from that I
1717
02:15:15.074 --> 02:15:16.534
am so bullish on Bitcoin?
1718
02:15:17.155 --> 02:15:18.695
A lot of it comes from
1719
02:15:20.675 --> 02:15:22.695
the Bitcoin Cash War,
1720
02:15:23.250 --> 02:15:25.429
Segway 2x war of 2017.
1721
02:15:25.969 --> 02:15:26.469
Right?
1722
02:15:27.010 --> 02:15:27.510
And
1723
02:15:28.130 --> 02:15:32.949
I feel like a lot of people took the wrong thing away from it because it was such a crappy fork.
1724
02:15:34.995 --> 02:15:39.415
You know, both Segwit two x, you know, run by Garzik, off by one error,
1725
02:15:39.795 --> 02:15:47.889
you know, and and Bitcoin Cash, you know, you had the the Bitmain guys and Raja Vere funding it. Like, you didn't have any really quality
1726
02:15:48.350 --> 02:15:50.610
developers involved in those projects.
1727
02:15:52.785 --> 02:15:54.324
In a worst case scenario
1728
02:15:55.425 --> 02:15:55.925
where,
1729
02:15:57.025 --> 02:15:58.965
let's say, the shit corners were
1730
02:15:59.400 --> 02:16:04.300
close to being right. Right? And you have a chain or some kind of new technology
1731
02:16:05.960 --> 02:16:06.940
that is,
1732
02:16:09.545 --> 02:16:12.764
just a way better money than Bitcoin. Right? Mhmm.
1733
02:16:13.704 --> 02:16:15.485
A hard fork to Bitcoin
1734
02:16:16.950 --> 02:16:17.450
that
1735
02:16:18.150 --> 02:16:19.370
adds that benefit
1736
02:16:19.670 --> 02:16:22.650
and keeps the current ledger at the tip,
1737
02:16:23.965 --> 02:16:27.025
I think, would have more value than that competing
1738
02:16:27.485 --> 02:16:27.985
ledger
1739
02:16:28.605 --> 02:16:34.770
because I think the Bitcoin ledger itself I think the actual UTXO set at, like, consensus tip
1740
02:16:36.030 --> 02:16:38.610
has a tremendous amount of value that is undercounted.
1741
02:16:40.110 --> 02:16:41.570
What are your thoughts on that?
1742
02:16:43.035 --> 02:16:52.480
I kinda disagree. Like, I think you have to soft fuck into Bitcoin or figure out a way to, like like, Bitcoin has to actually stop for you to be able to do that. Because, like, I, like
1743
02:16:52.860 --> 02:17:01.360
I mean, this is kind of a bad example, but, like, BCash Tech, you know, had the same starting UTXO set, but, like, no one valued that. So, like But it was a piece of shit.
1744
02:17:02.295 --> 02:17:03.115
Yeah. But,
1745
02:17:04.375 --> 02:17:08.075
like, Bitcoin has to be, like, actually failed for us to, like, switch over,
1746
02:17:08.535 --> 02:17:14.100
and I don't really see how that happened. Like, at the end, you could just soft fork a fix to almost anything.
1747
02:17:15.680 --> 02:17:17.140
My point is is, like,
1748
02:17:17.840 --> 02:17:19.140
that hard fork mechanism,
1749
02:17:19.440 --> 02:17:20.955
especially if you stay on
1750
02:17:21.415 --> 02:17:22.875
the the same algo.
1751
02:17:23.335 --> 02:17:23.835
Right?
1752
02:17:26.375 --> 02:17:29.354
It's a very it's like a it's an a very interesting
1753
02:17:30.381 --> 02:17:32.000
free market upgrade mechanism.
1754
02:17:34.381 --> 02:17:41.415
Yeah. I mean, you're not wrong. I just think And I I wonder if we're I wonder if we're blinded by the fact that
1755
02:17:41.875 --> 02:17:43.975
the previous attempts have just been so shitty.
1756
02:17:44.435 --> 02:17:54.220
Right? Like, we've had, like, Bitcoin Gold and, like, Bitcoin Cash and, like, Bitcoin Diamond. Like, they're all garbage. They all have some elements of, like, premines and airdrops and fucking
1757
02:17:54.775 --> 02:17:56.955
Yeah. No one's no one's fucked up difficulties
1758
02:17:57.415 --> 02:17:59.516
that, like, basically created premines.
1759
02:18:02.750 --> 02:18:06.510
I mean, I guess we would we'd actually will need to do one because of the,
NOTE
Transcription provided by Podhome.fm
Created: 3/17/2024 4:33:22 PM
Duration: 9851.664
Channels: 1
1
00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:16.745
2
00:00:17.330 --> 00:00:23.270
Bitcoin is now up, I think, 3 so when we spoke, I wanna say it was around 14, so it's up about 4 times,
3
00:00:24.530 --> 00:00:26.310
since we spoke in value.
4
00:00:26.695 --> 00:00:31.035
How much more upside is there? Even if you think there's upside, is there a lot more upside, do you think?
5
00:00:31.895 --> 00:00:34.635
6
00:00:35.390 --> 00:00:39.010
video difficulties. So I was gonna have my Bitcoin hat on when you answered that.
7
00:00:39.870 --> 00:00:41.250
Uh-oh. Facebook app.
8
00:00:41.790 --> 00:00:42.110
But,
9
00:00:42.655 --> 00:00:48.355
yeah. So, I mean, Bitcoin there there are many, many different ways to look at Bitcoin. The simplest one is just supply and demand. You mentioned,
10
00:00:48.975 --> 00:00:52.110
the mainstreaming of it and and the institutional acceptance of it.
11
00:00:52.670 --> 00:01:00.655
And I think, you know, the supply is growing 2% a year, and demand is growing faster. That's all you really need to know, and that means it's going higher. So I think that,
12
00:01:01.135 --> 00:01:06.435
you know, it's gonna have these kinds of volatile days. It was down 20% peak to trough over the weekend.
13
00:01:06.740 --> 00:01:07.799
But back in 2017,
14
00:01:08.259 --> 00:01:20.095
which which was a bubble, I don't think I don't think this is a bubble at all in Bitcoin. I think this is now the beginning of a of a mainstream mainstreaming of it. But, even back then during the bubble, it went down 20% on 5 different occasions.
15
00:01:20.635 --> 00:01:31.490
So volatility is with with Bitcoin, volatility is the price you pay for for performance. And and I think that, you know, if it if it it's I think it's like digital gold. That's the that's the first cup in it. Gold is about a $10,000,000,000,000
16
00:01:32.855 --> 00:01:35.275
asset category, and and Bitcoin's $11,000,000,000,000.
17
00:01:35.975 --> 00:01:39.915
And, it's it's infinitely divisible or almost so. It's easily
18
00:01:40.620 --> 00:01:41.120
$1,000,000,000,000
19
00:01:42.780 --> 00:01:43.280
of
20
00:01:44.940 --> 00:01:49.425
negative yielding, of bonds out there. Why would you have that? $1,000,000,000,000 of negative yielding,
21
00:01:50.225 --> 00:02:12.765
22
00:02:13.760 --> 00:02:30.655
23
00:02:31.540 --> 00:02:36.120
like Bitcoin, there's what happens is that there is a there's a explosion of new,
24
00:02:36.580 --> 00:02:40.920
new technologies that come along with it. So now we have about, what, 8 or 10000 of these ICOs.
25
00:02:41.415 --> 00:02:51.320
But eventually eventually, those things lock in, and there's a dominant company, which is or or a dominant entity. Mhmm. And that's why that's why the antitrust people are going after Amazon and,
26
00:02:52.040 --> 00:02:58.300
Google and Facebook and and because those those companies are so dominant. And I think Bitcoin will be the dominant
27
00:02:58.925 --> 00:02:59.805
technology in this,
28
00:03:00.444 --> 00:03:02.065
in this emerging asset category.
29
00:03:41.050 --> 00:03:47.310
30
00:03:47.770 --> 00:03:48.830
This is episode
31
00:03:49.370 --> 00:03:49.870
18,
32
00:03:51.205 --> 00:03:56.745
of the interactive live show about Bitcoin distributed systems, privacy, and open source software.
33
00:03:57.125 --> 00:04:03.230
Excited to be joined here by our good friends, Evan Kaludes and Ben Decarman, both returned guests.
34
00:04:03.610 --> 00:04:13.275
I wanna do a quick shout out to our ride or die freaks joining us in the live chat. You guys make this worth it, whether you're coming in through Twitter, Twitch, or YouTube.
35
00:04:14.880 --> 00:04:24.340
To to those freaks joining us from the audio streams, we have our 2 podcast feeds. One's the tales from the crypt feed, and one is the dedicated serial dispatch feed.
36
00:04:24.915 --> 00:04:25.415
Those,
37
00:04:26.835 --> 00:04:33.735
what you heard in that intro there was, that intro clip there was CNBC host Kelly Evans talking to legendary investor Bill Miller,
38
00:04:34.650 --> 00:04:36.910
who sounds pretty fucking bullish on Bitcoin,
39
00:04:37.530 --> 00:04:38.410
and she sounds,
40
00:04:39.930 --> 00:04:40.990
completely lost.
41
00:04:41.324 --> 00:04:48.520
And I I just have to highlight the fact that she did try and push him into the shitcoin rabbit hole, and he just kind of shoot her off,
42
00:04:49.080 --> 00:04:50.940
which is a a massive evolution
43
00:04:51.400 --> 00:04:52.139
from 2017
44
00:04:52.440 --> 00:04:54.379
what we used to see on mainstream media.
45
00:04:55.764 --> 00:05:06.540
Before we get started, I wanna just do a quick, special shout out to all the freaks who are supporting the show via streaming sats and podcasting 2 point o apps, whether that's Sphinx or Breeze.
46
00:05:07.240 --> 00:05:10.620
That's fucking awesome. It's just really cool seeing the sats fly in,
47
00:05:12.824 --> 00:05:16.285
and just shout out to the teams that are managing those those software stacks.
48
00:05:16.665 --> 00:05:28.270
Specifically, the Sphinx tribe is really fucking cool that we we all have that that tribe that we're that that we're talking in there. So cheers to all the freaks over there, and, also, cheers to all the freaks supporting the show via lnurlandtippin.me.
49
00:05:31.485 --> 00:05:32.604
That's what it's about, guys.
50
00:05:33.245 --> 00:05:36.225
I wanna keep this ad free. I wanna keep this community funded,
51
00:05:37.884 --> 00:05:41.610
and that's the plan, and you guys make that possible. So cheers to you guys.
52
00:05:42.230 --> 00:05:43.610
So with all that said,
53
00:05:44.470 --> 00:05:47.530
Ben, Evan, you guys just came back from Austin.
54
00:05:48.585 --> 00:05:51.884
Hit us with the the best FOMO. How how how the fuck was it?
55
00:05:52.185 --> 00:05:56.125
56
00:05:56.460 --> 00:05:58.480
57
00:05:58.860 --> 00:06:04.320
58
00:06:05.260 --> 00:06:06.865
got off to a hot hot start,
59
00:06:07.564 --> 00:06:09.905
fired some guns with Ben and some company.
60
00:06:10.925 --> 00:06:14.145
Then we had Guns and Bitcoin the next 2 days,
61
00:06:14.490 --> 00:06:15.229
which was
62
00:06:15.530 --> 00:06:18.830
really incredible and unique conference. I highly recommend,
63
00:06:19.689 --> 00:06:20.430
you attend,
64
00:06:21.050 --> 00:06:22.990
in the coming years if you get the chance.
65
00:06:23.885 --> 00:06:25.505
And then just hanging around
66
00:06:25.885 --> 00:06:29.585
around Austin, getting to meet a bunch of Bitcoiners I hadn't met in real life.
67
00:06:30.125 --> 00:06:33.570
We had a bit devs at Unchained Capital, which was amazing.
68
00:06:34.669 --> 00:06:37.470
You know, Ben, Ryan Gentry, and Justin Moon,
69
00:06:38.110 --> 00:06:40.610
lead that down there. That that was a really great experience.
70
00:06:41.505 --> 00:06:42.465
And then we had,
71
00:06:43.105 --> 00:06:45.125
one of our favorites, we had a beef steak
72
00:06:45.665 --> 00:06:47.765
on, like, a farm. It was
73
00:06:48.305 --> 00:06:56.300
quite an experience. I think it was the biggest one Josh has done maybe. Biggest one I've definitely been to. And, yeah. 200 people, I think?
74
00:06:57.160 --> 00:06:58.300
Something like that.
75
00:06:58.600 --> 00:07:04.185
76
00:07:04.985 --> 00:07:07.965
we we rented chairs even for the event, and still
77
00:07:08.330 --> 00:07:20.585
there's no room. It was it was really amazing to see how many people showed up. And at the beginning, we did, like, you know, like, raise your hand if you've never been to a Bitcoin meetup. And, like, half the people raised their hand, which is really cool to see. Like, there's a ton of people
78
00:07:20.965 --> 00:07:26.640
coming in, to the space or at least to their first meetup. And, yeah, it was a ton of fun.
79
00:07:27.260 --> 00:07:31.895
80
00:07:32.435 --> 00:07:32.935
81
00:07:33.875 --> 00:07:40.440
82
00:07:41.640 --> 00:07:47.500
83
00:07:48.805 --> 00:07:52.425
84
00:07:53.925 --> 00:07:58.539
was in Austin right before this bid devs. Right? So did you both go to Guns and Bitcoin?
85
00:07:59.319 --> 00:08:01.979
86
00:08:02.520 --> 00:08:03.020
Yep.
87
00:08:03.400 --> 00:08:05.259
The day before, we went shooting,
88
00:08:06.645 --> 00:08:08.905
the, the Friday, I believe,
89
00:08:09.285 --> 00:08:19.250
was the conference day, and they sort of split that off into a guns track and a Bitcoin track. And it was all about 3 d printed guns and all the advancements there.
90
00:08:19.950 --> 00:08:24.510
And then there was, a Bitcoin track where they're talking about privacy and and a bunch of,
91
00:08:25.405 --> 00:08:29.585
the samurai related guys were giving talks and teaching people about the tools.
92
00:08:30.685 --> 00:08:33.105
I stuck on the guns track because
93
00:08:34.290 --> 00:08:44.465
it's my guns knowledge that was more lacking than my Bitcoin knowledge, but I'm looking forward to, some of the videos coming out. Hopefully, fingers crossed. I I know we want to watch diverters talk, especially.
94
00:08:45.165 --> 00:08:49.345
Yeah. We had a showdown there. No blood was shed, so that was that was good.
95
00:08:50.845 --> 00:08:53.345
But, yeah, it was just amazing. My main takeaway
96
00:08:53.950 --> 00:08:58.530
is that this small, little, niche thing that was, like, a hobbyist thing
97
00:08:58.910 --> 00:09:00.210
is slowly transforming
98
00:09:00.945 --> 00:09:02.405
into, like, the most
99
00:09:02.785 --> 00:09:09.910
advanced part of, like, the gun industry. Like, all the r and d is, like, happening with these people We're just interested in, like,
100
00:09:11.010 --> 00:09:11.990
you know, enabling
101
00:09:12.450 --> 00:09:13.410
people to have,
102
00:09:13.890 --> 00:09:16.709
have more liberty and be able able to construct these things
103
00:09:17.445 --> 00:09:19.464
in in bones. It it's amazing.
104
00:09:19.925 --> 00:09:33.880
105
00:09:34.475 --> 00:09:44.550
and it, like, fires accurately. Like like, some of that stuff was insane, and, I'm really I'm really glad I went because, like, you know, I had followed, like, 3 d printed gun stuff on Twitter before, but
106
00:09:45.250 --> 00:09:51.555
I, like, got, like, a, you know, a full baptism in 3 d printed gun this or that weekend and, learned so much more.
107
00:09:52.195 --> 00:09:54.395
108
00:09:54.835 --> 00:09:56.755
time and detail and,
109
00:09:57.075 --> 00:09:59.255
engineering that they spend just to keep them safe.
110
00:09:59.730 --> 00:10:02.310
Like, the default mode that they want for all these weapons
111
00:10:02.770 --> 00:10:04.710
is to fail in, like, a graceful
112
00:10:05.090 --> 00:10:08.150
manner, like, away from the user so no one gets hurt.
113
00:10:08.535 --> 00:10:16.155
You know, like, the first three d printed gun, the liberator that Cody Wilson put together, like, that thing was a piece of shit. Oh, there
114
00:10:16.589 --> 00:10:23.329
I really like But it was it was just a piece of shit. They're like it was a one shot. Right? And it the upper was prone to explode
115
00:10:23.790 --> 00:10:24.690
all the time.
116
00:10:26.495 --> 00:10:31.714
So, yeah, it's really nice to see the innovations being made from people doing, like, pipe,
117
00:10:32.334 --> 00:10:32.834
shotguns
118
00:10:33.214 --> 00:10:33.714
to
119
00:10:35.330 --> 00:10:36.630
plastic lower,
120
00:10:37.490 --> 00:10:42.315
AK 40 Sevens. Like, it it's really crazy now. It's out of control.
121
00:10:43.815 --> 00:10:48.075
122
00:10:49.310 --> 00:10:54.290
you're you're only supposed to get, like, 2 shots out of it. Right? You're, like, supposed to shoot someone with a gun and then take their gun.
123
00:10:54.910 --> 00:10:55.790
124
00:10:56.375 --> 00:11:00.555
it was really just a proof of concept to show that this all could be done.
125
00:11:01.015 --> 00:11:01.995
I mean, I might I
126
00:11:02.535 --> 00:11:05.755
127
00:11:06.170 --> 00:11:14.269
named after a, like, cheap ass gun that we dropped in World War 2 from, like, parachutes to resistance fighters so that they would have
128
00:11:15.905 --> 00:11:22.805
some, like, basic weapon to to to shoot the Nazis with and then take their guns. And that's, like, what he named it after.
129
00:11:25.009 --> 00:11:32.904
But, yeah, that was, like, the original FUD against, 3 d printed guns. Right? Was that they were gonna blow up, so it makes sense, I guess, that, the industry is pushing to,
130
00:11:34.265 --> 00:11:35.325
not have that happen.
131
00:11:35.865 --> 00:11:42.570
132
00:11:43.029 --> 00:11:45.905
like, surprisingly, like, they're still very accurate and,
133
00:11:54.500 --> 00:12:04.405
you know, all this stuff is, like, getting worked out, the kinks and stuff. And I'm sure, like, 10 years from now, there'll be, like, almost no difference. Or if not, they're better than a real, you know, manufactured gun today.
134
00:12:05.925 --> 00:12:06.905
135
00:12:07.845 --> 00:12:09.045
136
00:12:10.485 --> 00:12:13.625
like, there's a major shift happening. Right? Like, people aren't ready,
137
00:12:14.660 --> 00:12:18.600
for, like, what happens next based on based on this. Right?
138
00:12:19.140 --> 00:12:20.200
139
00:12:20.580 --> 00:12:27.405
Have fun putting the toothpaste back in that tube. Yeah. As far as I'm concerned, like, gun control is dead.
140
00:12:28.425 --> 00:12:37.450
There's there's nothing you can do to stop the proliferation of this data. Right? It'd be like trying to say, oh, we're gonna stop file sharing. Look how that turned out.
141
00:12:38.470 --> 00:12:45.725
142
00:12:49.305 --> 00:12:50.925
Before we move on to,
143
00:12:52.630 --> 00:12:56.250
no. Yeah. Before we move on to Taproot, I wanna talk about transaction fees.
144
00:12:57.590 --> 00:12:58.090
The
145
00:12:58.550 --> 00:12:58.950
the
146
00:13:00.525 --> 00:13:02.625
there's no single mempool, but mempools,
147
00:13:03.165 --> 00:13:05.345
if you look up, like, in mempool.space,
148
00:13:06.365 --> 00:13:08.065
who has their own hosted mempool,
149
00:13:08.510 --> 00:13:12.850
You can see right now, and I'm sure most people who have tried to use Bitcoin over the last,
150
00:13:14.030 --> 00:13:16.930
5 or 6 days have noticed that fees have increased
151
00:13:17.395 --> 00:13:17.895
significantly.
152
00:13:18.435 --> 00:13:21.495
And I think there's a lot of confusion, especially among NewCointers,
153
00:13:22.515 --> 00:13:23.815
about what that means,
154
00:13:24.435 --> 00:13:25.735
why fees exist,
155
00:13:26.829 --> 00:13:31.010
why they are necessary, and how to basically plan around them.
156
00:13:31.709 --> 00:13:37.855
So I I think it's a very important topic, that's very topical right now, and it's a good place to start.
157
00:13:39.834 --> 00:13:48.390
So you wanna start there, Evan? Like, what why you wanna to the freaks, like, why we have transaction fees in the first place? Like, why can't I just send a transaction for no money?
158
00:13:49.650 --> 00:13:51.010
159
00:13:53.065 --> 00:13:56.205
one of the constraints that we have on Bitcoin is
160
00:13:57.865 --> 00:14:06.410
a block size. There's only a limited amount of transactions that can get in to every block that's supposed to get processed every 10 minutes or so.
161
00:14:06.825 --> 00:14:07.565
And, basically,
162
00:14:08.665 --> 00:14:13.245
the main crux of why we have this limit at all is to keep Bitcoin decentralized.
163
00:14:14.199 --> 00:14:18.860
In our community, it's always been very valuable that an average user is able to spin up a node
164
00:14:19.319 --> 00:14:23.875
and, do so in a reasonable amount of time even with not great Internet.
165
00:14:24.975 --> 00:14:26.595
To do it for cheap cost,
166
00:14:27.055 --> 00:14:33.490
it's very important that, you know, user can get a hard drive and, like, a Raspberry Pi and run one of these node projects.
167
00:14:34.430 --> 00:14:38.290
And, basically, the nodes I mean, the the alternative
168
00:14:39.065 --> 00:14:43.565
shitcoins that don't have these block sizes or have bigger block limits,
169
00:14:44.185 --> 00:14:48.125
they're more prone to being centralized as it's not so easy for,
170
00:14:49.230 --> 00:14:51.329
you know, individuals to run their own nodes.
171
00:14:51.709 --> 00:14:54.209
So if push comes to shove in those ecosystems,
172
00:14:54.589 --> 00:14:59.205
it's easier to, you know, go after the choke points, go after an
173
00:14:59.585 --> 00:15:04.325
AWS, for example, on some of the chains with bigger blocks, bigger sizes.
174
00:15:04.705 --> 00:15:15.965
And, you know, you can effectively cripple the whole network there. So the point of with Bitcoin is that we're going after, you know, legacy institutions, central banks that have run the planet for a 100 years plus.
175
00:15:17.085 --> 00:15:19.745
We need to make sure that our protocol stays,
176
00:15:20.605 --> 00:15:22.065
resilient and decentralized.
177
00:15:22.845 --> 00:15:23.985
And as a result,
178
00:15:24.720 --> 00:15:28.180
you need to end up paying some fees to get your blocks in.
179
00:15:29.199 --> 00:15:29.699
Fortunately,
180
00:15:30.880 --> 00:15:34.180
the layer 1 where you're paying all these fees is not really what
181
00:15:34.835 --> 00:15:39.895
you're gonna be using for, like, instant settlement in, like, your day to day transactions.
182
00:15:40.355 --> 00:15:48.510
So it's so okay that these transactions aren't going through instantly or, you know, they you have to pay to get them processed.
183
00:15:49.210 --> 00:15:50.750
At least that's the way I see it.
184
00:15:51.065 --> 00:15:53.885
185
00:15:54.265 --> 00:16:10.185
make it, like, more clear. It's like, you know, if we didn't have a block size limit, I could write a bot that produces a terabyte worth of transactions every day. And now you just store a terabyte worth of data every day. And, you know, that quickly become infeasible to, store for the average person.
186
00:16:10.805 --> 00:16:11.705
And, you know,
187
00:16:12.245 --> 00:16:19.690
to keep that from happening, we have a a limit of how many transactions can be produced in a single block in any subsequent day.
188
00:16:20.070 --> 00:16:20.390
And,
189
00:16:20.950 --> 00:16:21.610
you know,
190
00:16:22.149 --> 00:16:22.810
right now,
191
00:16:23.190 --> 00:16:29.535
we're getting, we had a huge decrease in mining hash rate. So because of that, blocks aren't coming out as quickly. So,
192
00:16:30.075 --> 00:16:35.509
therefore, we're doing less transactions in a single day, which is why we have this huge spike in fees.
193
00:16:36.930 --> 00:16:41.990
194
00:16:43.555 --> 00:16:48.615
to reduce the load on the network, so you can't just do, like, a denial of service attack.
195
00:16:49.395 --> 00:16:59.110
On top of that, they pay minors. So fees are absolutely necessary. A sustained fee market is absolutely necessary for the long term security of the Bitcoin network. Yep.
196
00:17:00.385 --> 00:17:00.885
Ben,
197
00:17:01.665 --> 00:17:08.485
so so with all that so so this point of this this show, the point is to dispatch. The point of us meeting up every every Tuesday
198
00:17:10.060 --> 00:17:12.000
is to discuss actionable things.
199
00:17:12.700 --> 00:17:16.060
So I think the number one thing that people should realize is
200
00:17:16.620 --> 00:17:21.605
and we're gonna we're gonna dive into to speculation here and stuff like that, but
201
00:17:22.065 --> 00:17:22.725
the reason
202
00:17:23.825 --> 00:17:26.325
we all expect fees to increase,
203
00:17:27.710 --> 00:17:34.290
over time long term. Fees I I got a lot of shit yesterday, but I said fees are designed to pump forever.
204
00:17:35.870 --> 00:17:36.370
The
205
00:17:37.495 --> 00:17:38.955
this particular spike
206
00:17:39.975 --> 00:17:40.475
is
207
00:17:42.135 --> 00:17:49.900
primarily caused by this loss of hash rate. And because you have this loss of hash rate, blocks are coming in slower
208
00:17:50.360 --> 00:17:58.895
until we get the next difficulty adjustment, which will bring the difficulty down, and then blocked will come back in at that target time of around 10 minutes.
209
00:17:59.355 --> 00:18:07.659
But until then, we're getting less blocks in the same amount of time than we usually would. So as a result, if transaction demand is the same or increases,
210
00:18:08.200 --> 00:18:11.305
your fees should increase. It's a market. It's a free market.
211
00:18:12.265 --> 00:18:15.245
So with all that said, for the average user,
212
00:18:15.945 --> 00:18:21.970
if you're if you weren't prepared for high fees, and we're gonna talk about what what it means to be prepared for high fees,
213
00:18:22.990 --> 00:18:28.049
your best move is really to just sit this out and wait for the difficulty adjustment. Right?
214
00:18:30.045 --> 00:18:38.649
215
00:18:39.029 --> 00:18:39.110
216
00:18:40.149 --> 00:18:51.450
217
00:18:53.450 --> 00:18:56.110
218
00:18:56.570 --> 00:18:57.070
this
219
00:18:57.450 --> 00:19:01.230
difficulty adjustment due? I I know that it typically happens
220
00:19:01.995 --> 00:19:04.495
every 2 weeks or so, although it's by
221
00:19:04.955 --> 00:19:07.855
block. Right? Right? It's something like 2016
222
00:19:08.475 --> 00:19:08.975
blocks.
223
00:19:09.770 --> 00:19:12.910
224
00:19:13.690 --> 00:19:17.310
but this hash was pulled towards the beginning of the difficulty adjustment,
225
00:19:18.205 --> 00:19:20.065
which means it will take us longer
226
00:19:20.445 --> 00:19:21.825
much longer than usual,
227
00:19:22.684 --> 00:19:26.620
to to reach it. Usually, the difficulty adjustment is supposed to be targeting 2 weeks.
228
00:19:27.500 --> 00:19:32.080
It looks now I'm trying to pull it up on my screen. It looks now, like,
229
00:19:33.020 --> 00:19:34.000
we have 14
230
00:19:34.845 --> 00:19:37.024
1400 blocks to go, 1462
231
00:19:37.404 --> 00:19:39.825
blocks to go, and they're targeting April 30th,
232
00:19:40.524 --> 00:19:42.465
which is about 10 days from now,
233
00:19:43.440 --> 00:19:44.419
for the retarget.
234
00:19:45.280 --> 00:19:51.235
But that's an estimate. Right? It's an estimate of an average block time. All all right. All short term hash rate
235
00:19:53.395 --> 00:19:54.915
numbers are basically
236
00:19:55.395 --> 00:20:11.745
they're people are just taking the difficulty and the number of blocks we've had over a certain amount of time, and they're making a guess on how much hash rate there is. There's no way to to verifiably prove how much hash rate there is besides working it out backwards. Another thing to keep in mind, though, here, which is really cool about fees
237
00:20:12.605 --> 00:20:16.600
and this this this free market for fees is in this situation,
238
00:20:17.220 --> 00:20:18.679
because fees are pumping,
239
00:20:20.580 --> 00:20:25.320
it encourages miners that aren't online or might not have been profitable before
240
00:20:25.764 --> 00:20:44.205
to turn on their rigs and get us through that difficulty adjustment. Right? Because as blocks slow, the fee revenue goes up. The higher the fee revenue goes, the more incentive it is for a new miner to come in and, return on turn on old hash power. Right? Yeah. The last block had 3.13
241
00:20:45.065 --> 00:20:55.080
242
00:20:56.315 --> 00:20:59.054
243
00:21:00.715 --> 00:21:05.535
They're having a great time. So let's, well, let's talk about the speculation. Right? The speculation is
244
00:21:07.250 --> 00:21:10.950
that there was, an accident at a coal mine in China,
245
00:21:11.810 --> 00:21:16.565
in a province where there's a a large contingency of Bitcoin miners, And as such,
246
00:21:17.185 --> 00:21:18.245
the Chinese government,
247
00:21:18.865 --> 00:21:19.685
turned off
248
00:21:20.065 --> 00:21:27.100
a bunch of coal factories over there. And I guess these miners, you during the wet season, they use excess hydro, and then during the dry season,
249
00:21:27.639 --> 00:21:28.379
they use
250
00:21:29.159 --> 00:21:29.659
coal.
251
00:21:30.054 --> 00:21:32.955
And as a result, they're offline for a couple weeks,
252
00:21:33.654 --> 00:21:35.835
because because of this government action.
253
00:21:37.659 --> 00:21:39.120
So how do we feel about that?
254
00:21:42.220 --> 00:21:45.440
255
00:21:45.895 --> 00:21:48.795
that's what they're saying. It makes sense why the miners would go down.
256
00:21:50.054 --> 00:21:56.270
It's funny that you mentioned it's like the the wet season miners. Because we had, like, a similar thing happened, like, 6 months ago when
257
00:21:56.730 --> 00:22:00.725
all of them moved from the the hydro dams, I guess, up here. And now
258
00:22:01.205 --> 00:22:04.825
and now we're experiencing it again where, you know, they all left me to deal with difficulty.
259
00:22:05.365 --> 00:22:07.065
260
00:22:08.190 --> 00:22:12.210
and and see, as as I as I remind you, freaks, when when
261
00:22:12.990 --> 00:22:18.725
when we're talking about hash on short term time basis, we're either we're either using these estimates that are derived
262
00:22:19.184 --> 00:22:30.020
or people are just trusting the miners on the ground what they're saying, right, which is a very not Bitcoin thing is that you're just you're just trusting words from Chinese miners over there and people in the know.
263
00:22:30.800 --> 00:22:32.660
But from what I'm being told
264
00:22:33.280 --> 00:22:34.340
is that
265
00:22:35.025 --> 00:22:42.965
they're gonna do that transition again, but this time from coal to hydro in about a month, like, 3 to 4 weeks. And this power
266
00:22:43.670 --> 00:22:47.930
situation, like, screwed them right before that transition. So there's a chance
267
00:22:48.390 --> 00:22:54.605
there's a chance that this plus them moving, or maybe the smart ones are just moving already right now and just getting ready.
268
00:23:00.510 --> 00:23:04.130
The re the reason I said, like, we're kind of entering FUD territory
269
00:23:05.070 --> 00:23:05.570
is
270
00:23:06.030 --> 00:23:06.530
because,
271
00:23:08.815 --> 00:23:11.875
so so when I first read this this story
272
00:23:13.695 --> 00:23:22.960
out of China, I read it as it just sounded like proof of stake FUD. Right? Like, 40% of the hash rate was pulled off the network by the Chinese government
273
00:23:23.475 --> 00:23:27.015
from dirty coal mines, and, like, proof of stake is the best.
274
00:23:27.475 --> 00:23:28.615
Like, that was my
275
00:23:28.995 --> 00:23:30.535
my hard and big corner
276
00:23:31.289 --> 00:23:43.425
read of the story originally, and now it's kind of been confirmed by a bunch of people, and, you know, they're saying it's not a fun line. But there's 2 takes here that I've heard, and I'm curious on your opinion on them. The first take is,
277
00:23:45.725 --> 00:23:46.225
that
278
00:23:47.280 --> 00:23:47.780
that,
279
00:23:48.320 --> 00:23:51.780
there's been Bitcoin deniers have used the accusation
280
00:23:52.080 --> 00:23:58.345
that, you know, 70% of the hash rate is located in China, and this proves that, like, 30 or 40% is located there.
281
00:23:59.765 --> 00:24:03.500
And so that's a bullish thing. And then the second take is,
282
00:24:03.800 --> 00:24:09.020
this is what it would look like if you had some kind of government sponsored attack on Bitcoin.
283
00:24:10.385 --> 00:24:19.125
You early in a difficulty adjustment, you would pull a shit ton of hash off the network or as much hash as you could pull off the network. Make the difficulty adjustment last as long as possible,
284
00:24:20.850 --> 00:24:27.429
and then maybe if you had other hash, like, pull some shenanigans while you're shadow mining a competing chain or something like that.
285
00:24:29.015 --> 00:24:32.715
And then I guess there's a third there's a third thing that I've heard
286
00:24:33.175 --> 00:24:39.790
where is could this be, like, some kind of conspiracy of a cartel of Chinese miners to try and boost fees or boost shitcoins.
287
00:24:40.650 --> 00:24:48.055
So I'm curious on your guys' opinion on those 3 because, you know, we do the show every we do the show every week, and it's just fun to speculate on this shit.
288
00:24:48.615 --> 00:24:55.995
289
00:24:56.455 --> 00:24:57.675
of the hash rate.
290
00:24:58.400 --> 00:25:00.660
Well, wouldn't that only be for this province?
291
00:25:01.040 --> 00:25:06.180
Unless, like, the proportion of minors are, like, disproportionately only in this province,
292
00:25:06.585 --> 00:25:10.524
you would think that it would be higher than, you know, 30, 35%.
293
00:25:11.385 --> 00:25:31.155
294
00:25:33.430 --> 00:25:35.610
295
00:25:35.990 --> 00:25:39.930
albeit at a slower rate. You know? Our blocks are,
296
00:25:40.664 --> 00:25:42.125
you know, still churning out,
297
00:25:42.745 --> 00:25:45.404
maybe closer to 13 minutes than 10 minutes.
298
00:25:46.024 --> 00:25:46.424
But,
299
00:25:46.904 --> 00:25:50.284
yeah, it goes to show some of the resilience of, Bitcoin.
300
00:25:50.730 --> 00:25:52.590
Now the second question was about,
301
00:25:54.409 --> 00:26:00.255
state sponsored attacks and what this would look like. It's like, yeah, we're totally gonna see this,
302
00:26:01.035 --> 00:26:03.215
in different jurisdictions where there are crackdowns.
303
00:26:04.075 --> 00:26:08.490
It just happens to be that, you know, China has such a huge conglomerate of these miners,
304
00:26:09.670 --> 00:26:14.170
that we see this go down. But who knows? In the future, we could see,
305
00:26:15.030 --> 00:26:16.170
even much greater
306
00:26:16.595 --> 00:26:19.335
difficulty adjustment draw downs than this. And,
307
00:26:20.755 --> 00:26:29.510
you know, it'd be hard to crack down on all the mining in the world, you know, given personal operations and whatnot, but it's easier to, pull the switch on the bigger operations.
308
00:26:30.850 --> 00:26:35.775
And then what was the third one? You said that was this potentially done for for or
309
00:26:36.794 --> 00:26:37.695
310
00:26:38.075 --> 00:26:55.255
Not necessarily. Well, the second part was. The first part was so you have, like, a cartel of minors. Right? Like, they all know each other. Mhmm. We know, like, it's a it's an incestuous community over in the the western world. It's definitely we don't have an eye sight into the, you know, the eastern markets as much,
311
00:26:55.555 --> 00:27:06.059
but, like, it's definitely super incestuous over there too. Right? Like, there's, like, a there's, like, probably, like, 10 dudes that that are, like, the movers and shakers over there, and they all known each other for fucking years.
312
00:27:07.480 --> 00:27:10.700
The the conspiracy or the theory is that,
313
00:27:11.825 --> 00:27:12.965
they they
314
00:27:13.345 --> 00:27:13.845
strategically
315
00:27:14.385 --> 00:27:15.284
cut hash
316
00:27:15.985 --> 00:27:16.485
to
317
00:27:17.105 --> 00:27:19.800
boost fees so that their fee revenue goes up
318
00:27:21.000 --> 00:27:22.300
or and or
319
00:27:23.400 --> 00:27:25.500
to create FIFA to boost shitcoins.
320
00:27:25.800 --> 00:27:29.100
Right? Because, like, I look. All the b cash deals have all come out of the woodwork.
321
00:27:31.335 --> 00:27:36.315
Like, I it's it's it feels very 2017 in terms of FIFA on Twitter right now.
322
00:27:39.909 --> 00:27:41.850
323
00:27:42.470 --> 00:27:49.095
at least for, like, maybe the altcoin thing makes sense, but for the, like, fee like, bumping the fees up so then they could,
324
00:27:50.595 --> 00:27:53.095
claim that. I don't think that makes too much sense because,
325
00:27:53.475 --> 00:27:57.640
you know, they're, like, with like, they're losing, like, you know, like, it's been, what,
326
00:27:58.179 --> 00:28:00.440
4 or 5 days worth of mining revenue.
327
00:28:00.820 --> 00:28:06.805
I don't know if the mempool will get fill enough for them to get that back if they turn them back on right now.
328
00:28:07.265 --> 00:28:09.365
329
00:28:10.305 --> 00:28:12.405
like, 5 days before the target?
330
00:28:13.009 --> 00:28:18.789
They still get some of that fee revenue. There's still gonna be a massive backlog. They get, like, a 25%
331
00:28:19.090 --> 00:28:21.429
reduction or 20% reduction in difficulty.
332
00:28:23.554 --> 00:28:31.414
I mean, this is why the difficulty adjustment's so long. Right? So it can't be easily gained. But if you have 40% of the hash, maybe there is a gaming mechanism.
333
00:28:34.410 --> 00:28:35.549
Yeah. Yeah.
334
00:28:36.490 --> 00:28:40.990
335
00:28:41.835 --> 00:28:46.414
it's all like no. It's very hard to, predict what's gonna happen and, like,
336
00:28:47.355 --> 00:28:52.640
you know, it could pay off, I guess, but I don't know. That'd be kind of a a weird bet to make.
337
00:28:53.180 --> 00:28:58.480
338
00:28:58.805 --> 00:29:01.305
theory out of Who does that? You just said. So,
339
00:29:02.485 --> 00:29:05.225
I think that the minors are colluding,
340
00:29:06.299 --> 00:29:07.360
to push everyone
341
00:29:08.139 --> 00:29:08.639
onto,
342
00:29:10.299 --> 00:29:11.200
Lightning Network.
343
00:29:11.580 --> 00:29:14.240
344
00:29:14.684 --> 00:29:17.745
345
00:29:18.924 --> 00:29:21.345
and he just wants to make those routing fees.
346
00:29:21.860 --> 00:29:23.160
That's that's my period.
347
00:29:23.540 --> 00:29:27.640
348
00:29:28.580 --> 00:29:29.860
349
00:29:30.515 --> 00:29:32.535
those lizards, they have they have pulp,
350
00:29:33.235 --> 00:29:34.855
so gotta watch out for them.
351
00:29:36.355 --> 00:29:40.669
352
00:29:41.370 --> 00:29:43.470
353
00:29:47.065 --> 00:29:48.685
354
00:29:49.625 --> 00:29:50.765
the first one
355
00:29:52.585 --> 00:29:53.885
the the state sponsored,
356
00:29:55.260 --> 00:29:57.200
confirms thing is that's bullshit.
357
00:29:58.300 --> 00:30:00.560
That's just a weird bullish slant to make.
358
00:30:01.020 --> 00:30:02.000
A state attack,
359
00:30:02.625 --> 00:30:03.445
probably bullshit.
360
00:30:03.985 --> 00:30:14.790
It's just something to keep in mind. Like, if you were going to attack it using a hash rate kind of attack, I think that's how you would do it. You would just pull a lot of hash. You that's how you would see the first set of the attack. So I'm kinda curious.
361
00:30:15.570 --> 00:30:22.975
And then the third part is, you know, I also think is is is probably a fucking stretch, but it's just an interesting thing to think about just because
362
00:30:23.355 --> 00:30:34.150
that like, 6 months ago when it happened to the rainy season thing and we were just all told the rainy season thing, like, that was the first time we were ever told the rainy season thing. They just pretended like that was, like, the thing that happens every 6 months. Like, I had never
363
00:30:35.030 --> 00:30:36.890
right? Like, we had we had never
364
00:30:37.265 --> 00:30:39.125
seen a drawdown that hard,
365
00:30:41.105 --> 00:30:48.270
and it was just weird, like, everyone's just, like, oh, yeah. Yeah. That's just that's just what happens every 6 months, like, all the miners just, like, put their stuff in trucks and drive it over.
366
00:30:50.010 --> 00:30:54.830
But, so that was just my adversarial thinking. And then the last but not least,
367
00:30:55.895 --> 00:30:56.395
the
368
00:30:57.575 --> 00:31:02.795
would you guys agree that if you're, like, a big player and you're doing major transactions, like, you know, maybe
369
00:31:03.549 --> 00:31:05.090
maybe require more confirmations
370
00:31:05.390 --> 00:31:06.210
before you,
371
00:31:07.150 --> 00:31:07.970
settle things
372
00:31:08.270 --> 00:31:17.255
just because, you know, you have all this hash that's, like, kind of unaccounted for out of nowhere in a single difficulty adjustment. Is that, like, a a safe advice, or is that just over paranoid?
373
00:31:18.710 --> 00:31:25.450
374
00:31:25.910 --> 00:31:27.590
attack to attack. But,
375
00:31:28.365 --> 00:31:36.945
you know, there's some, like, games you could play that you could only use, like, 30 or 40% and still, like, effectively attack the network. So, yeah, you know, wait for
376
00:31:37.279 --> 00:31:41.059
6 confirmations instead of 1, and, you know, that's probably a better idea.
377
00:31:41.919 --> 00:31:45.860
378
00:31:46.605 --> 00:31:47.985
to, you know, calculate
379
00:31:48.365 --> 00:31:53.965
how much security you want. So it's nice that everyone can at least adjust that, depending on their,
380
00:31:54.365 --> 00:31:55.185
risk threshold.
381
00:31:56.010 --> 00:31:56.510
382
00:31:56.890 --> 00:31:58.830
Evan, I'm happy I have you here.
383
00:32:01.210 --> 00:32:05.835
There was I mean, Catan famously said that he would die on the hill for 1 shot per bite.
384
00:32:06.875 --> 00:32:08.735
Narrator, he died on the hill.
385
00:32:09.434 --> 00:32:10.815
You in November,
386
00:32:11.195 --> 00:32:11.695
you,
387
00:32:12.794 --> 00:32:16.769
said to him that you would ride or die with him, one sapper bite forever.
388
00:32:17.630 --> 00:32:19.950
Mhmm. I I I just wanna, like
389
00:32:20.590 --> 00:32:25.775
because I wanna check my bias a little bit because I've been the opposite way. I've been, you know, feeling fee FOMO
390
00:32:26.235 --> 00:32:28.335
for fucking a year and a half now.
391
00:32:29.035 --> 00:32:41.120
I'm like, fees are gonna happen. This is one of the reasons I've been so outspoken about CoinJoin, about, you know, learning about Coin Control, learning about lightning, getting your lightning channels open. Like, people have, like, their lightning channels open right now are are they're good to go.
392
00:32:41.685 --> 00:32:44.185
But it's it's hard to do this in a high fee environment.
393
00:32:46.325 --> 00:32:47.225
This is definitely
394
00:32:47.525 --> 00:32:49.705
a a weird kind of outlier
395
00:32:50.550 --> 00:32:54.330
in terms of this much hash leaving the network at once. I I don't really remember,
396
00:32:55.990 --> 00:33:03.135
except for maybe 6 months ago when we were told about the rainy season thing, anywhere close to this much hash going off in a single difficulty adjustment.
397
00:33:05.275 --> 00:33:06.735
Is is this the start
398
00:33:07.100 --> 00:33:11.919
of the next major sustained fee cycle? Like, we haven't seen the mempool clear
399
00:33:12.299 --> 00:33:13.200
this whole year.
400
00:33:13.659 --> 00:33:17.335
It has not cleared yet this whole year. Is this kind of,
401
00:33:18.675 --> 00:33:25.095
the straw that breaks the camel's back and and it starts, like, this next sustained fee market, or, you know, what do you what do you think happens?
402
00:33:26.390 --> 00:33:28.490
403
00:33:29.190 --> 00:33:31.610
you know, our drawdown in the bear market,
404
00:33:31.910 --> 00:33:34.410
as far as transaction count, at least, I guess,
405
00:33:34.865 --> 00:33:40.245
isn't so severe. So I would say that we're still gonna have this crazy fee environment
406
00:33:41.105 --> 00:33:42.965
for the next, let's say,
407
00:33:43.265 --> 00:33:45.540
11 months or so, at least. Right?
408
00:33:46.080 --> 00:33:51.140
But then, you know, the next couple of years, who's to say it doesn't clear out a couple times at least?
409
00:33:51.520 --> 00:33:56.865
So my my point is that, you know, over time, these fees, they are gonna trend upwards.
410
00:33:57.804 --> 00:34:01.184
This is sort of gonna become the normal in our bull markets,
411
00:34:01.804 --> 00:34:02.705
but I
412
00:34:03.110 --> 00:34:04.649
haven't quite accepted that.
413
00:34:05.590 --> 00:34:21.100
At least, I don't think that we're not gonna see, like, low fee rates again. I I I expect sometime late next year, middle next year, we'll probably see 1 and 2, Satoshi per v byte blocks. Well, when do you think when do you think that when do you think 1 sat per byte is gonna clear again?
414
00:34:21.960 --> 00:34:25.580
I don't know. Probably not till March or April of next year.
415
00:34:26.125 --> 00:34:28.705
I feel like this bull market is just gonna you so bearish?
416
00:34:29.805 --> 00:34:31.425
I'm bearish still. Right?
417
00:34:32.205 --> 00:34:36.890
418
00:34:40.310 --> 00:35:06.695
419
00:35:07.235 --> 00:35:11.335
420
00:35:12.410 --> 00:35:14.430
you can see the 1 year chart,
421
00:35:17.210 --> 00:35:17.710
and
422
00:35:18.250 --> 00:35:20.510
that's a pretty crazy 1 year chart. I mean,
423
00:35:21.195 --> 00:35:22.495
that just looks like
424
00:35:24.395 --> 00:35:30.500
I don't do I might is that my bias showing that I'm looking at this and I'm just like, it's gonna be even crazier than 2017,
425
00:35:31.039 --> 00:35:38.445
like, in terms of in terms of SaaS per byte fees. And let's forget about USD fees. People get trapped in this idea of talking about fees in USD.
426
00:35:39.224 --> 00:35:41.165
Fees in USD matter way less,
427
00:35:41.865 --> 00:35:47.480
than fees as a sat per byte. This chart is sapper byte, and the reason is is because your UTXOs are in sats.
428
00:35:47.780 --> 00:35:52.440
Right? So if if you have a if you have a UTXO that's 500,000
429
00:35:52.900 --> 00:35:53.400
sats,
430
00:35:54.015 --> 00:35:54.835
you don't care
431
00:35:55.215 --> 00:36:06.850
what the USD cost to move it is. You care what the SATs cost to move it percentage that you have to pay to move that, and we have this theory we have this theory. We have this concept called dust, right, which is when that fee
432
00:36:07.230 --> 00:36:09.250
in SaaS goes above the UTXO
433
00:36:09.550 --> 00:36:10.050
value.
434
00:36:11.875 --> 00:36:17.395
So, I mean, I look at this, and I'm just like, fuck. But I've just been saying that for a year and a half, so maybe that's just,
435
00:36:18.035 --> 00:36:19.575
maybe that's just a bias talking.
436
00:36:20.200 --> 00:36:22.380
437
00:36:23.319 --> 00:36:28.859
I probably agree on that. What more can I can I say on that? You know, hopefully, things cool off. But
438
00:36:29.355 --> 00:36:31.695
like I said, probably not till,
439
00:36:32.395 --> 00:36:35.135
you know, next year, April at least. And
440
00:36:36.200 --> 00:36:39.180
so, yeah, I mean, that that's got some pretty broad repercussions
441
00:36:39.800 --> 00:36:40.700
in the ecosystem,
442
00:36:41.160 --> 00:36:43.980
not even just with people trying to send transactions, but
443
00:36:44.444 --> 00:36:50.305
spills into lightning and people opening up channels. It spills into coin join and people mixing their coins.
444
00:36:51.960 --> 00:36:55.020
You know, it it's a big problem if this is a sustained
445
00:36:55.400 --> 00:36:55.900
thing.
446
00:36:57.240 --> 00:37:03.355
447
00:37:04.075 --> 00:37:06.175
we're about, like, half of what the 2017
448
00:37:06.555 --> 00:37:13.109
high was. So but we're, like, consistently here where this is there, like, you know, it lasted for, like, a week or 2. So
449
00:37:13.730 --> 00:37:17.985
What are you using for the all time? Yeah. I'll put up in the chat for you.
450
00:37:18.685 --> 00:37:20.305
451
00:37:21.405 --> 00:37:23.165
Oh, yeah. Of course. This one, the OG,
452
00:37:23.485 --> 00:37:23.985
mempool.
453
00:37:24.870 --> 00:37:32.810
So just to make it clear for the freaks, when people say mempool, what they really mean is every individual node basically has a waiting list of transactions
454
00:37:34.714 --> 00:37:37.214
in their individual mempool. There is no
455
00:37:37.515 --> 00:37:38.255
the mempool.
456
00:37:38.635 --> 00:37:47.150
Mhmm. But most mempools of well connected nodes should look the same. So what we do is, you know, there's a couple of hosted sites that have,
457
00:37:48.090 --> 00:37:50.430
these mempool charts that show their own mempool,
458
00:37:51.175 --> 00:37:54.715
And now what's really cool is because we have these software packages like raspyblitz,
459
00:37:56.615 --> 00:37:57.675
Umbrel, whatnot,
460
00:37:58.135 --> 00:37:59.595
you can actually easily,
461
00:38:00.660 --> 00:38:08.040
you know, you use your own instance, use your own node to to view the mempool, but we tend to go to these hosted sites just because it's convenient.
462
00:38:10.885 --> 00:38:13.944
463
00:38:14.325 --> 00:38:16.665
cores, mempools, or something like 300? It's
464
00:38:17.045 --> 00:38:18.819
465
00:38:19.119 --> 00:38:22.020
I fucking can't take a screenshot of here because he he wants
466
00:38:23.359 --> 00:38:24.660
he's showing my,
467
00:38:27.605 --> 00:38:30.825
well, it is what it is. You're not gonna see a screenshot of the
468
00:38:31.445 --> 00:38:35.490
of the full the full mempool out to 2017. But as,
469
00:38:36.029 --> 00:38:46.924
as Ben said, it does seem like we're kinda half, but, also, Ben, like, that was, like, a very quick hit that, like, Roger Ver and Co and and and Bitmain kinda, like I felt like they manufactured.
470
00:38:49.224 --> 00:38:49.724
And
471
00:38:50.470 --> 00:38:55.770
per our previous conversation, we're agreeing that this isn't manufactured right now. Right? We're this is not an attack.
472
00:38:56.309 --> 00:38:56.809
2017
473
00:38:57.109 --> 00:38:59.475
was was started by an attack. Is this an attack?
474
00:39:00.515 --> 00:39:33.565
475
00:39:37.244 --> 00:39:39.505
476
00:39:39.964 --> 00:39:40.464
So
477
00:39:41.440 --> 00:39:47.940
I wanna dive into, like, the implications of the sustained fee market because I do kind of think that's what comes next.
478
00:39:51.315 --> 00:39:55.174
Before we get there so there's a couple different scenarios of
479
00:39:55.475 --> 00:39:56.855
there's a couple different scenarios,
480
00:39:57.940 --> 00:40:03.240
for people that are that are listening, and and we talk about actionable. Right? First scenario is,
481
00:40:04.925 --> 00:40:08.225
there was they received a transaction and sitting in the mempool
482
00:40:08.525 --> 00:40:10.225
sitting in mempools and it's unconfirmed.
483
00:40:10.765 --> 00:40:11.265
Right?
484
00:40:12.640 --> 00:40:19.619
What what what should that what should that person do? There it it shows in their wallet as unconfirmed. They're waiting for the transaction to confirm as a receiver.
485
00:40:22.545 --> 00:40:26.945
486
00:40:27.985 --> 00:40:34.610
you can spend it, like, back to yourself at a higher fee rate And, just make sure that the average fee rate of the 2 transactions
487
00:40:35.550 --> 00:40:39.410
is, high enough to get into, like, the next block, whatever block target you want.
488
00:40:39.755 --> 00:40:41.455
489
00:40:41.915 --> 00:40:49.710
490
00:40:50.970 --> 00:40:51.869
should be doable.
491
00:40:52.330 --> 00:41:00.815
492
00:41:01.275 --> 00:41:02.735
But you can send all
493
00:41:03.435 --> 00:41:17.910
you can send all to your own address. That's that's child pays for parent. Child pays for parent is this idea that you take an unconfirmed transaction, you send it to yourself with a higher fee. The combined fee is what a minor cares about because they get both at the same time.
494
00:41:18.305 --> 00:41:18.805
Right?
495
00:41:21.185 --> 00:41:21.665
And,
496
00:41:22.145 --> 00:41:29.960
so then the other scenario oh, and by the way, to the to the freaks that are watching, as you can see, I have the mempool, the chart I was trying to get up,
497
00:41:30.600 --> 00:41:40.525
where you can see the previous 2 spikes that happened or, I guess, 3 spikes that happened in the 2017 cycle, and you can compare it to kind of the lead up and this spike that we're seeing now.
498
00:41:41.465 --> 00:41:43.885
It does seem like when you look at the actual
499
00:41:44.265 --> 00:41:45.005
fee bans,
500
00:41:45.650 --> 00:41:47.430
that this does seem a bit healthier,
501
00:41:47.890 --> 00:41:54.870
that people are more low time preference. Right? A lot of the transactions that that seem to be in the mempools are lower fees, just people willing to wait.
502
00:41:56.835 --> 00:41:58.055
As Evan said earlier,
503
00:41:58.595 --> 00:42:01.255
the the default in core is 300 megs.
504
00:42:02.035 --> 00:42:03.175
So that mean,
505
00:42:04.210 --> 00:42:04.710
if
506
00:42:05.810 --> 00:42:06.050
the
507
00:42:06.770 --> 00:42:16.025
and that that's the 300 megs of the highest fee transaction. So if your fee falls underneath that range, you will get dropped from mempools, and you will either have to rebroadcast
508
00:42:16.565 --> 00:42:17.305
your transaction,
509
00:42:18.325 --> 00:42:22.790
or resend your transaction with with a higher fee, or resend your transaction at a later date.
510
00:42:24.390 --> 00:42:30.570
The other key thing to keep in mind is that core defaults to a 2 week time limit on transactions
511
00:42:30.950 --> 00:42:31.450
in
512
00:42:32.305 --> 00:42:33.285
individual mempools.
513
00:42:33.825 --> 00:42:40.965
So now we get to the next piece of question. I've sent a Bitcoin transaction, and it's unconfirmed. What can I do
514
00:42:42.690 --> 00:42:43.589
to get it confirmed?
515
00:42:43.890 --> 00:42:45.029
And if you wait
516
00:42:45.410 --> 00:42:50.150
approximately 2 weeks, it should be dropped from mempools, and then you should be able to resend that transaction
517
00:42:51.434 --> 00:42:54.974
with a higher fee or whatever fee you want to send it with. Now
518
00:42:56.234 --> 00:42:59.055
let's say you don't wanna wait. What should that user do?
519
00:43:02.620 --> 00:43:09.555
520
00:43:10.175 --> 00:43:16.115
So if you sent, like, a full, like, UTXO to someone, you can't do this. And then your only fallback then is,
521
00:43:16.650 --> 00:43:17.790
replaced by fee,
522
00:43:18.250 --> 00:43:21.470
where you just basically redo the transaction but with a higher fee.
523
00:43:22.890 --> 00:43:26.085
But some you need to signal with this for your first transaction,
524
00:43:26.944 --> 00:43:29.444
and auto wallets don't really expose this. So
525
00:43:30.280 --> 00:43:33.340
need to be make sure you do like, know what you're doing here.
526
00:43:33.800 --> 00:43:37.900
But, yeah, it's something like Bitcoin Core or Electrum will let you do this, but
527
00:43:38.645 --> 00:43:41.845
528
00:43:42.405 --> 00:43:45.305
to make sure that enable RBF is toggled on.
529
00:43:45.765 --> 00:43:48.260
It's good idea to have it on usually.
530
00:43:49.280 --> 00:44:06.550
531
00:44:06.850 --> 00:44:12.710
And I'm sure you guys are all getting these questions. So I think it's you know, in these types of situations, it's really good that we work through this stuff together
532
00:44:13.994 --> 00:44:18.174
because, I mean, my phone has just been blown up by people confused by this stuff.
533
00:44:19.275 --> 00:44:22.815
So, I mean, a a key aspect here is if you're sending to yourself,
534
00:44:23.700 --> 00:44:24.680
you just chill.
535
00:44:25.140 --> 00:44:33.000
There's no funds at risk. It doesn't matter. If you trust your counterparty, period, obviously, you trust yourself, but you trust your counterparty, period, you just chill. Right? Mhmm.
536
00:44:33.365 --> 00:44:41.065
Wait for difficulty adjustment, especially in this particular period where where you you have this difficulty adjustment causing a short term high fees.
537
00:44:42.950 --> 00:44:50.089
What else did I wanna talk about here? Do we have any other nuances that that people should know about in terms of transaction fees?
538
00:44:50.445 --> 00:44:54.625
Like, how should you how should you choose your transaction fee? I'll pull up the
539
00:44:55.405 --> 00:45:00.065
you know, first of all, this is, like, all super technical stuff. I know people get a little bit
540
00:45:00.510 --> 00:45:04.690
glassy eyed when we talk about this technical stuff, so I'm gonna talk about a bullish thing really quickly.
541
00:45:05.310 --> 00:45:06.530
The last 3 months,
542
00:45:06.830 --> 00:45:12.915
we've had all time high transaction volumes on Bitcoin when measured in, shitty money in US dollars. So,
543
00:45:13.295 --> 00:45:13.795
whoo,
544
00:45:14.175 --> 00:45:14.994
killing it.
545
00:45:15.375 --> 00:45:15.875
Okay.
546
00:45:16.255 --> 00:45:16.755
Now,
547
00:45:18.490 --> 00:45:20.190
let's get back to the nitty gritty.
548
00:45:21.690 --> 00:45:22.190
What,
549
00:45:22.890 --> 00:45:25.470
what was where was I at there? You were asking
550
00:45:26.055 --> 00:45:30.555
551
00:45:32.535 --> 00:45:35.435
So yeah. So I I like to use 2 tools right now
552
00:45:35.859 --> 00:45:36.920
for picking that.
553
00:45:37.700 --> 00:45:40.119
So one is the lovely mempool.space
554
00:45:40.820 --> 00:45:42.440
that we had up there earlier.
555
00:45:43.615 --> 00:45:46.835
Yeah. There it is. So if you take a look at the blocks,
556
00:45:48.575 --> 00:45:50.755
the top number with the tilde
557
00:45:51.135 --> 00:45:52.355
tells you the average
558
00:45:53.200 --> 00:45:54.500
fee for each transaction.
559
00:45:55.119 --> 00:45:59.539
And then right underneath that in the yellow, it tells you the range of the fees.
560
00:46:00.055 --> 00:46:03.275
So the cheapest transactions in blocks, 679-946
561
00:46:05.415 --> 00:46:07.115
were as low as 274
562
00:46:07.495 --> 00:46:08.475
SaaS per vByte,
563
00:46:09.070 --> 00:46:11.390
and they also went as high as,
564
00:46:11.710 --> 00:46:12.210
3,462
565
00:46:13.310 --> 00:46:14.290
SaaS per VBITE.
566
00:46:14.990 --> 00:46:15.490
So,
567
00:46:15.845 --> 00:46:16.345
typically,
568
00:46:17.125 --> 00:46:23.385
you can do 2 things. You can take a look at the last, you know, 6 to 12 blocks and see what the low
569
00:46:24.309 --> 00:46:25.369
average was.
570
00:46:26.950 --> 00:46:30.170
So right now, if you wanna get it in, you gotta set it to, like, 180
571
00:46:30.765 --> 00:46:34.545
pretty much at least, but we're trending towards higher fees.
572
00:46:36.525 --> 00:46:41.430
But then, there's also a tool built into mempool space that tells you what you should be paying,
573
00:46:41.809 --> 00:46:43.750
low priority, medium priority,
574
00:46:44.210 --> 00:46:51.375
and high priority transactions. That's below the blocks on the left side right there, and it gives you both the sat per v byte and the dollar equivalent.
575
00:46:52.315 --> 00:46:57.055
So that's really good. I also personally like what the fee
576
00:46:57.780 --> 00:46:58.920
dot I o.
577
00:46:59.220 --> 00:47:00.440
It's a really good,
578
00:47:00.980 --> 00:47:03.240
Bitcoin fee rate estimation table.
579
00:47:04.260 --> 00:47:06.680
It's all colored, and it tells you, okay,
580
00:47:07.175 --> 00:47:11.035
what your time frame is from half hour to 24 hours,
581
00:47:11.495 --> 00:47:13.195
and then what percentage
582
00:47:13.975 --> 00:47:21.330
of, guarantee do you need that this thing is gonna go in? So the first block is 5% chance and the last one's 95. And,
583
00:47:21.950 --> 00:47:25.490
you know, you typically figure out what your time frame is, and
584
00:47:26.255 --> 00:47:27.395
you pick what
585
00:47:27.855 --> 00:47:29.315
amount of risk you wanna accept.
586
00:47:29.695 --> 00:47:30.835
If you pick that 95%
587
00:47:31.135 --> 00:47:38.660
block all the way to the right, yeah, good chances are that they'll go through, but there's still no guarantee as the difficulty can,
588
00:47:39.599 --> 00:47:45.865
you know, tumble the horn. Away from you. Yeah. It can run away from you, which is why it's really, really important
589
00:47:46.485 --> 00:47:47.545
to use RBF
590
00:47:47.925 --> 00:47:48.665
if possible
591
00:47:49.020 --> 00:47:59.715
592
00:48:01.295 --> 00:48:08.809
As far as I'm concerned, there's really no there's no there's there's either I'm willing to wait or I want it now.
593
00:48:09.349 --> 00:48:12.250
If I want it now, I'm gonna pay the top level fee.
594
00:48:12.685 --> 00:48:19.185
Like, the fee that I get in literally at the next block or 2 blocks, like, max 3 blocks, because otherwise it's gonna run away from me.
595
00:48:19.885 --> 00:48:20.385
Otherwise,
596
00:48:21.170 --> 00:48:25.589
I'm using RBF replaced by fee. You gotta signal that ahead of time,
597
00:48:26.290 --> 00:48:28.230
and then you're putting in a
598
00:48:29.075 --> 00:48:35.335
an aggressively low fee and kind of waiting and seeing how it works. Or or maybe, I guess, you go,
599
00:48:35.880 --> 00:48:36.380
like,
600
00:48:36.680 --> 00:48:41.340
like, is as like, what I'm trying to say is, like, is there anyone right now in this fee market going,
601
00:48:41.720 --> 00:48:44.300
oh, I'm gonna set, like, a nice 130
602
00:48:44.600 --> 00:48:46.435
sat byte per fee 130
603
00:48:47.055 --> 00:48:48.435
sat per byte fee
604
00:48:49.535 --> 00:48:52.115
to confirm in 5 to 7 days.
605
00:48:54.130 --> 00:49:04.085
606
00:49:04.785 --> 00:49:07.444
Yeah. The important thing to take away from this is
607
00:49:08.065 --> 00:49:18.270
you don't really know. All you can do is look back at the past data, you know, looking back at the last couple of blocks, last day, last week, and, you know, just make the best educated,
608
00:49:19.425 --> 00:49:21.285
you know, guess from there.
609
00:49:23.985 --> 00:49:27.365
610
00:49:29.220 --> 00:49:32.119
yeah, I mean, it's kind of like what what Evan's saying. Like, either
611
00:49:32.819 --> 00:49:39.924
you kind of have to do, like, in a binary way. We're either trying to get into the next block or, you know, maybe just, like, wanna wait and, you know,
612
00:49:41.184 --> 00:49:48.220
just say, like, oh, I'm gonna throw out a 20 SAP provide thing, and hopefully, it gets confirmed in 2 weeks. So, like, you know, if you're sending, like, cold storage or something.
613
00:49:48.760 --> 00:49:49.160
But,
614
00:49:49.720 --> 00:49:54.940
otherwise, yeah, like, especially, like, right now, the fee like, I did a transaction, like,
615
00:49:56.235 --> 00:50:03.750
a few days ago, and I did, like, you know I've used mempool. Spaces hour long, like, 6 block tar target. And
616
00:50:04.210 --> 00:50:05.510
they gave me a 75,
617
00:50:06.050 --> 00:50:10.710
SAP per byte thing, and then, you know, that now that's 30 blocks away from getting it submitted.
618
00:50:11.250 --> 00:50:12.555
So, like, you know
619
00:50:13.095 --> 00:50:21.460
and it's all he ran away from me. So stuff like that where it's just like you have to wait it out. And, you know, it might it probably will confirm eventually, but who knows when.
620
00:50:22.980 --> 00:50:24.599
621
00:50:25.300 --> 00:50:32.545
Yeah. So it doesn't really matter if it Yeah. Exactly. You don't have to worry about it. So I mean, like, so, like, things like RBF,
622
00:50:33.405 --> 00:50:33.905
lightning,
623
00:50:35.085 --> 00:50:36.145
liquid maybe,
624
00:50:36.605 --> 00:50:50.480
like, these things get you know, part of the cool part about the fee market is that they get adopted because people get burned in these situations. Right? They end up in this they have to people are, you know, humans, and this is just how they learn.
625
00:50:51.565 --> 00:50:56.705
So they're not ready for this fee market, and they're gonna need to prepare for the future.
626
00:50:58.750 --> 00:51:01.569
Now there's an argument, and I kinda wanna discuss it,
627
00:51:02.030 --> 00:51:05.410
but we'll discuss this later, so I'm not even gonna bring it up yet.
628
00:51:05.869 --> 00:51:06.369
The
629
00:51:08.505 --> 00:51:12.925
if this we're we're we're gonna assume let's assume that we're talking,
630
00:51:15.330 --> 00:51:17.590
this is a nice little temporary bump.
631
00:51:18.130 --> 00:51:24.765
Matt is extremely biased, and he's just had fee FOMO for a year and a half, and he thinks, like, fees are gonna go out of control.
632
00:51:25.065 --> 00:51:34.010
But in, like, 3 weeks, 4 weeks, we get, like, 2 difficulty adjustments, and we're back down to, like, on Sundays, you're able to get, like, a 7 sapper bite through, a 12 sapper bite through,
633
00:51:35.530 --> 00:51:43.605
which quite frankly, you should be happy you're able to get those through. Fucking maximalist waiting for 1 sapper bite. How do how do the freaks prepare?
634
00:51:44.145 --> 00:51:45.365
How do they get ready
635
00:51:45.825 --> 00:51:47.045
for the inevitable
636
00:51:47.585 --> 00:51:50.485
increase in fees in my opinion? Like, how do they,
637
00:51:51.590 --> 00:51:59.930
they they haven't you know, they've been listening to this show for this whole year, and they've been listening to rabbit hole recap tales from the crypt for over 2 years,
638
00:52:01.675 --> 00:52:04.734
and and that they didn't learn from that, but now
639
00:52:05.275 --> 00:52:08.655
they realize fees are gonna be really high. How do they prepare?
640
00:52:10.140 --> 00:52:17.585
Yes. But not in this difficulty adjustment. They should just sit tight for this difficulty adjustment. But after fees come back down, hopefully, how do they do it?
641
00:52:17.984 --> 00:52:23.605
642
00:52:24.065 --> 00:52:30.329
you know, I'm in a position where I have a great sense of relief because my coins that I need to spend
643
00:52:30.710 --> 00:52:36.295
on chain are already coined. And, you know, I have them ready to run through post mix tools or in cold storage.
644
00:52:36.835 --> 00:52:39.095
And then as far as, you know,
645
00:52:39.450 --> 00:52:44.430
more instant transactions, I have all my Lightning channels open. I have, you know, ample,
646
00:52:45.530 --> 00:52:49.185
capital locked up in those channels to deploy on Lightning Network
647
00:52:49.905 --> 00:52:57.365
if I need. So as much as it's an inconvenience, I don't get to you know, if I wanna open more channels, I gotta eat the fees. If I wanna coin join
648
00:52:57.750 --> 00:52:58.410
more coins,
649
00:52:58.869 --> 00:53:00.010
I gotta eat the fees.
650
00:53:01.109 --> 00:53:14.849
You know, I I don't really need to do those things. Like, oh, I could probably top it out until next year when the fees go start going down again. So the only really thing you can do is when fees are low, take advantage of it. Open your channels,
651
00:53:15.230 --> 00:53:16.130
do your mixes,
652
00:53:16.830 --> 00:53:20.450
do your, you know, on chain management, whatever that means to you.
653
00:53:20.914 --> 00:53:23.494
And, you know, don't don't let the opportunities
654
00:53:24.115 --> 00:53:29.710
where it does dip, but don't let them slip away from you. So start using stuff like WhatTheFee
655
00:53:30.730 --> 00:53:32.190
and, the mempool
656
00:53:32.650 --> 00:53:33.530
site from,
657
00:53:34.010 --> 00:53:36.670
from Johor or whatever his name is. Use mempool.space,
658
00:53:37.994 --> 00:53:40.654
and, you know, keep your eyes peeled on Sundays,
659
00:53:40.954 --> 00:53:43.375
you know, Sunday afternoon, Sunday evenings,
660
00:53:45.035 --> 00:53:47.535
typically when you see these things clear up.
661
00:53:48.220 --> 00:53:52.400
So, you know, if you're in Bitcoin, you should be in this thing for the long haul.
662
00:53:53.100 --> 00:53:53.600
So,
663
00:53:54.060 --> 00:53:59.845
you know, you gotta be making these plays when fees are low and when we're in bear markets, especially.
664
00:54:01.505 --> 00:54:06.329
665
00:54:06.630 --> 00:54:07.130
that,
666
00:54:08.309 --> 00:54:12.410
you know, you can you can do but might not be recommended is consolidating UTXOs.
667
00:54:13.414 --> 00:54:17.914
Generally, you don't wanna use this with, coin joined funds, but, you know,
668
00:54:18.214 --> 00:54:31.365
maybe if you are coin joining your funds, it might make sense to just, you know, consolidate them into ones. Now it's cheaper to send, and then you don't have risk where, you know, half your funds become dust or something. So you wanna explain why that's horrible for your privacy?
669
00:54:32.385 --> 00:54:32.944
Yeah. Other
670
00:54:34.785 --> 00:54:36.484
671
00:54:37.470 --> 00:54:38.589
672
00:54:40.029 --> 00:54:44.609
yeah. So if you're if you're doing a coin join and say, like, I have 10
673
00:54:45.605 --> 00:54:48.345
mix this through Wasabi or Samura or Joy Market,
674
00:54:48.885 --> 00:54:49.525
whatever, and,
675
00:54:50.805 --> 00:54:53.705
you do it. Now you have, like, all you have, like, a 100.1
676
00:54:54.810 --> 00:54:57.390
UTXOs. And then if you just recombine them,
677
00:54:57.770 --> 00:55:01.150
well, now they could just see, oh, okay. A 100 Bitcoin came in.
678
00:55:01.595 --> 00:55:06.255
They got all jumbled up. We don't know where it went. But then someone combined a a 100 or, you know, a 1000.1
679
00:55:06.955 --> 00:55:08.975
UTXOs back into a 100 Bitcoin.
680
00:55:09.280 --> 00:55:12.980
And then they just know, okay. That's the same guy. Like, it's like if you
681
00:55:13.440 --> 00:55:15.140
if everyone walked into a building
682
00:55:15.599 --> 00:55:23.735
and shuffled around Tats walked out, but, like, you're the only one guy with a red shirt on. Like, you know, they're gonna be like, okay. It was him anyways. He he's the only guy with the red shirt.
683
00:55:24.035 --> 00:55:24.535
So,
684
00:55:25.155 --> 00:55:32.850
you know, you need to be worried about, like, you know, you can't give any links from your your before coinage ring to after. And combining
685
00:55:33.310 --> 00:55:40.454
allows you to, like, find the amount and say, like, oh, this this amount happened before and after so they can, you know, correlate that to you.
686
00:55:42.194 --> 00:55:46.329
687
00:55:48.010 --> 00:55:49.390
atomic swaps and whatnot,
688
00:55:49.770 --> 00:55:52.030
timing analysis, and the amount analysis.
689
00:55:54.485 --> 00:55:55.625
So, yeah, I mean,
690
00:55:55.925 --> 00:55:58.985
the red shirt thing too is, like, a lot of these privacy tools,
691
00:56:00.599 --> 00:56:02.380
just in general, even outside of Bitcoin,
692
00:56:03.000 --> 00:56:13.335
they work better when you have the numbers on your side, when there's been more people wearing that red shirt. You know what I mean? Well, before we before we get to the private it's more it's bigger than privacy tools. Right? Like, if
693
00:56:13.795 --> 00:56:15.655
694
00:56:16.115 --> 00:56:27.305
if you combine so the single biggest driver of transaction fee burden, on chain fee burden, is how many transactions you have on the input side. Mhmm. So let's say you wanna send a transaction that's 500,000
695
00:56:27.685 --> 00:56:28.185
sats.
696
00:56:28.565 --> 00:56:29.065
Okay?
697
00:56:29.365 --> 00:56:31.305
If you have a single UTXO
698
00:56:31.765 --> 00:56:34.670
that is a 1,000,000 sats and you pay that 500,000
699
00:56:35.050 --> 00:56:39.390
SATs and you get a single change you get a single change output back,
700
00:56:40.330 --> 00:56:47.475
for the remainder 500,000 SATs, that is your minimal fee burden. That is the that is the estimated transaction fee
701
00:56:47.855 --> 00:56:48.355
that,
702
00:56:48.735 --> 00:56:50.835
when they show dollar amounts on mempool.space,
703
00:56:51.295 --> 00:56:56.740
that's what they're going by. Okay? That is on chain, that is the single cheapest way for you to make a transaction.
704
00:56:57.279 --> 00:57:01.115
The input side is where you have the highest cost,
705
00:57:01.735 --> 00:57:04.715
just straight up, the number of inputs. So that same 500,000
706
00:57:05.015 --> 00:57:11.410
sat transaction that you're making, if instead of making it with a single 1,000,000 sat input, you make it with a
707
00:57:11.950 --> 00:57:12.450
500,000
708
00:57:13.150 --> 00:57:23.635
sat inputs, you're gonna pay significantly more in fees. So the argument historically has been combine your UTXOs into as few UTXOs as possible, it reduces
709
00:57:24.095 --> 00:57:25.955
your future on chain fee burden.
710
00:57:27.039 --> 00:57:33.220
But you are obviously linking the ownership of all of those UTXO. So if I beat Ben
711
00:57:33.599 --> 00:57:34.819
in in poker,
712
00:57:35.315 --> 00:57:36.615
and then I went to BitDevs
713
00:57:37.315 --> 00:57:47.799
and, you know, someone paid me because they owed me for dinner, and then I had a KYC transaction that came into the wallet from, you know, Cash App or whatever KYC service, strike or something.
714
00:57:48.180 --> 00:57:49.160
And then you have,
715
00:57:50.500 --> 00:57:56.055
the non KYC, maybe you're mining or you could get through BISK, and you combine all of those together,
716
00:57:56.435 --> 00:58:00.695
anyone who looks on chain knows. If they know if they know one of those UTXOs,
717
00:58:01.235 --> 00:58:09.609
they know you own all of them. If Ben is looking at the chain, if Cash App is looking at the chain, they know the Cash App UTXO, and they know the Ben UTXO. Right?
718
00:58:09.910 --> 00:58:16.465
That that's the issue. And and when you when you look at the mainstream wallets, it show it as UTXOs.
719
00:58:17.245 --> 00:58:24.450
The mainstream wallets mostly show it as a single balance. It's not a single balance. You really have a bunch of little bills or UTXO's
720
00:58:24.750 --> 00:58:33.454
bills in terms of cash, like, all these UTXO's that are making up your wallet in the back end that you don't see if your wallet doesn't have coin control. This is why all wallets have coin control.
721
00:58:35.115 --> 00:58:35.615
722
00:58:36.315 --> 00:58:38.095
You Matt, you nailed it. You irreparably
723
00:58:39.050 --> 00:58:40.190
link these transactions,
724
00:58:40.490 --> 00:58:41.230
these UTXOs
725
00:58:41.530 --> 00:58:43.710
together when you consolidate the outputs.
726
00:58:44.170 --> 00:58:51.424
And, Matt, some users, they have this misconception. They think, okay. Yeah. Sure. I'm gonna just consolidate my inputs,
727
00:58:51.964 --> 00:58:54.785
but I'm so clever. I'm gonna just throw it through CoinJoin.
728
00:58:55.085 --> 00:58:59.070
Can you explain to the freaks listening out there why that doesn't help you,
729
00:58:59.770 --> 00:59:00.490
in regards
730
00:59:00.810 --> 00:59:04.270
731
00:59:05.210 --> 00:59:07.725
is that it could help your forward privacy,
732
00:59:08.025 --> 00:59:14.845
but you've already linked the transactions before that happens. Right? You've already linked all those UTXOs as we said in the previous example.
733
00:59:15.560 --> 00:59:19.740
So you're hurting your privacy in that that that pre element,
734
00:59:20.200 --> 00:59:20.840
and then you're
735
00:59:21.880 --> 00:59:23.660
hopefully, if you if you
736
00:59:24.005 --> 00:59:31.465
if you use CoinJoin correctly, you're helping your privacy on the forward scenario. But, I mean, in a high fee environment, you're gonna be paying significantly in fees.
737
00:59:32.484 --> 00:59:33.305
So, I mean,
738
00:59:34.250 --> 00:59:34.750
the
739
00:59:35.690 --> 00:59:39.470
the single best thing you can do in today's world, which we didn't have in 2017,
740
00:59:40.250 --> 00:59:45.145
is start to get used to lightning and experimenting with lightning. Right? And and you you you kinda
741
00:59:45.525 --> 00:59:47.865
you you want you want to have your UTXOs
742
00:59:48.165 --> 00:59:48.985
in a position
743
00:59:49.420 --> 00:59:52.240
where you have the sufficient spending cash
744
00:59:52.940 --> 00:59:54.160
ready to go in lightning,
745
00:59:55.020 --> 01:00:02.915
without too much on chain fee burden for your cold storage, and, like, that's, like, kinda the ideal situation you wanna be in. The problem is
746
01:00:03.295 --> 01:00:03.795
is
747
01:00:05.390 --> 01:00:10.290
I I don't know if it's a problem or a feature. The the cool thing about this incentive structure
748
01:00:10.670 --> 01:00:15.295
is that users are naturally getting burned by fees, and then they learn and they try and be more
749
01:00:24.790 --> 01:00:28.490
If you don't do it efficiently, you're gonna pay more in fees and you're gonna have to learn.
750
01:00:29.109 --> 01:00:30.570
Now the problem is
751
01:00:32.150 --> 01:00:34.330
the problem is in a high fee environment,
752
01:00:35.335 --> 01:00:37.895
it becomes way more difficult, I think, for
753
01:00:38.935 --> 01:00:42.635
like, a sustained high fee environment, it becomes way more costly,
754
01:00:43.760 --> 01:00:45.540
expensive for for freaks,
755
01:00:46.480 --> 01:00:51.140
and painful for freaks to, like, try and, you know, learn these things. Like, I
756
01:00:51.835 --> 01:00:57.035
like, I've had very expensive lessons, and those expensive lessons happened at 5 SaaS per byte. Yeah.
757
01:00:57.914 --> 01:01:00.414
These lessons are gonna get even more expensive. Right?
758
01:01:01.290 --> 01:01:01.790
759
01:01:02.970 --> 01:01:04.430
You know, as time goes on
760
01:01:04.810 --> 01:01:06.030
and number go up,
761
01:01:06.570 --> 01:01:09.230
your mistakes become even more costly. So
762
01:01:09.724 --> 01:01:12.224
better to get it done sooner than later. And,
763
01:01:12.765 --> 01:01:14.224
you know, if you're gonna
764
01:01:14.605 --> 01:01:17.240
have an expensive lesson, you know, learn from it.
765
01:01:17.720 --> 01:01:18.220
So
766
01:01:21.960 --> 01:01:27.445
Matt's just thinking back to all the fees. He's fucked up on Lightning and CoinJoint right
767
01:01:27.745 --> 01:01:28.885
768
01:01:30.625 --> 01:01:32.245
the the infamous
769
01:01:33.100 --> 01:01:34.380
tails from the crypt node,
770
01:01:34.700 --> 01:01:36.480
TFTC stacking stats
771
01:01:36.940 --> 01:01:38.000
has been moved
772
01:01:38.540 --> 01:01:40.400
to significantly better hardware.
773
01:01:42.345 --> 01:01:42.845
Nice.
774
01:01:43.305 --> 01:01:46.685
It is now being sponsored by Nautocloud.
775
01:01:48.345 --> 01:01:49.485
So it is
776
01:01:50.240 --> 01:01:51.380
it is on Nautocloud,
777
01:01:53.039 --> 01:01:53.539
and
778
01:01:53.920 --> 01:01:55.460
it's super high performance,
779
01:01:56.319 --> 01:02:00.885
and the minimal channel size has been reduced to 500 1,000 sats.
780
01:02:01.785 --> 01:02:02.285
So,
781
01:02:03.265 --> 01:02:10.549
hopefully, it's not another expensive lesson for me. I think that is hopefully, it can be a sufficient minimum channel size, But any freaks
782
01:02:11.329 --> 01:02:12.710
who have been experimenting
783
01:02:13.410 --> 01:02:15.190
with Lightning might be aware
784
01:02:15.490 --> 01:02:17.990
that a lot of the large routing nodes
785
01:02:18.335 --> 01:02:19.875
have minimal channel sizes.
786
01:02:21.454 --> 01:02:22.275
A lot of them
787
01:02:22.815 --> 01:02:24.914
don't allow you to create channels
788
01:02:25.375 --> 01:02:26.755
that are lower than,
789
01:02:27.980 --> 01:02:34.880
4,000,000 Sats, which right now is over $2,000, which, you know, quite honestly, like, I'm just not fine with that.
790
01:02:36.095 --> 01:02:38.435
So what's really cool here is
791
01:02:38.895 --> 01:02:41.955
this node is a very well connected node.
792
01:02:43.480 --> 01:02:45.980
Bosworth has given it a a decent score.
793
01:02:46.360 --> 01:02:49.020
Okay? So our Bos score is pretty good,
794
01:02:49.960 --> 01:02:52.540
for whatever if that means anything to you guys,
795
01:02:53.145 --> 01:02:53.645
and,
796
01:02:55.065 --> 01:02:59.165
it allows you and it's Tor only. It's Tor only. It's not run by a regulated company,
797
01:03:00.105 --> 01:03:01.640
so so consider it.
798
01:03:03.000 --> 01:03:07.420
799
01:03:08.039 --> 01:03:12.945
reach out to the node thief and put them in their data facility. That's great.
800
01:03:13.405 --> 01:03:15.425
801
01:03:16.605 --> 01:03:19.985
is working with nava cloud now. So this is the node.
802
01:03:22.030 --> 01:03:25.090
So if you want to connect to it, I guess, just go on to 1mlorln.bigsun
803
01:03:26.430 --> 01:03:28.050
and and type in stacking stats,
804
01:03:28.675 --> 01:03:34.295
and you'll be able to get that pub key because, obviously, you can't copy it from an image. I guess you could use the QR code.
805
01:03:36.400 --> 01:03:39.220
But yeah. So I I thought that was important to mention.
806
01:03:40.400 --> 01:03:43.280
I think it's gonna be really interesting, guys, to see how
807
01:03:44.235 --> 01:03:48.095
maybe my bias is showing again, but if it's not this time, I'm curious to see
808
01:03:48.475 --> 01:03:49.215
what happens,
809
01:03:49.915 --> 01:03:54.730
how these lightning implementations and these lightning wallets handle, like, a sustained high fee environment.
810
01:03:55.350 --> 01:03:59.850
We kind of haven't really dealt with it in a lot of, like, the really cool UX ways
811
01:04:00.310 --> 01:04:01.610
of dealing with it.
812
01:04:03.425 --> 01:04:09.045
I just feel like I haven't been stress tested. You know? Like, I've been loving Moonwallet lately, m u u n wallet.
813
01:04:10.920 --> 01:04:18.460
I don't know what their fee assumptions are, you know, or, like, Breezewallert or Phoenix. Like, what are their fee assumptions? Like, how is that going to influence
814
01:04:18.840 --> 01:04:19.340
things?
815
01:04:19.795 --> 01:04:20.855
I think also
816
01:04:21.155 --> 01:04:22.215
that there's something
817
01:04:23.235 --> 01:04:30.270
is there something about, like, the channel open last if it, like, lasts longer than 2 weeks, you have issues or something like that? Am I mistaken there?
818
01:04:32.250 --> 01:04:34.030
Are you guys aware of that at all?
819
01:04:35.405 --> 01:04:36.944
820
01:04:37.645 --> 01:04:38.704
in a situation
821
01:04:39.005 --> 01:04:41.025
where I have to experience that firsthand,
822
01:04:42.040 --> 01:04:44.460
but I believe there could be some challenges there.
823
01:04:45.720 --> 01:04:48.300
Certainly, there's a challenge when you're opening
824
01:04:49.000 --> 01:04:50.060
lightning channels
825
01:04:50.705 --> 01:04:52.565
as you cannot use RBF.
826
01:04:53.185 --> 01:04:58.565
You have to if you wanna bump your channel open, you have to do a child pay for parent, which is a little complex.
827
01:04:59.670 --> 01:05:04.410
But, no, I have I haven't had any opens last, 2 week plus. How about you, Ben?
828
01:05:06.715 --> 01:05:11.835
829
01:05:12.475 --> 01:05:13.055
I know
830
01:05:13.730 --> 01:05:17.809
on the closing side, there was, like, a bunch of recent improvements where,
831
01:05:18.530 --> 01:05:24.795
like, before there's, like, this, like, loop flooded loop paper where, like, you couldn't bump the fee of your closing transaction.
832
01:05:25.655 --> 01:05:26.635
But, now
833
01:05:27.175 --> 01:05:31.255
I think most lighting implementations allow you to do anchor outputs, so you always have a
834
01:05:31.930 --> 01:05:34.090
an output to bump the fee on so you can,
835
01:05:34.810 --> 01:05:35.870
make sure your closing
836
01:05:36.170 --> 01:05:37.150
transaction gets,
837
01:05:37.530 --> 01:05:38.350
in the mempool
838
01:05:38.730 --> 01:05:44.895
or in a block, which is really good to see because, you know, if if you close, something on Thursday and then Friday,
839
01:05:45.275 --> 01:05:49.915
fees jump up by a 100 sats per byte, like and now you could be screwed. And,
840
01:05:50.714 --> 01:05:53.620
you know, this could, like, help save you now, which is really good to see.
841
01:05:57.760 --> 01:06:00.105
842
01:06:01.785 --> 01:06:03.164
I mean, and this is classic,
843
01:06:05.385 --> 01:06:11.510
I'm I'm just gonna I I it's unconfirmed. I I'm not sure, but my understanding was that if
844
01:06:12.050 --> 01:06:21.275
the way the way it works, like, if you open a channel and it lasts it takes longer than 2 weeks to confirm and then confirms, it just, like, automatically force closes
845
01:06:21.850 --> 01:06:24.110
based on, like, the game theory logic of lightning.
846
01:06:24.490 --> 01:06:25.710
847
01:06:26.010 --> 01:06:27.470
time lock is,
848
01:06:28.810 --> 01:06:33.835
2 weeks by default, so it expires. Something like that. Yeah. Yeah. That sounds about right.
849
01:06:34.215 --> 01:06:53.065
850
01:06:54.164 --> 01:07:00.880
But what I'm most concerned about is the shit I'm not concerned about. Like, I feel like there's all these different edge cases that people don't think about
851
01:07:01.339 --> 01:07:02.480
that become apparent.
852
01:07:04.665 --> 01:07:15.020
They become apparent when you're in this high fee environment. Like, what if I like, we talked earlier about the minimal channel size. Right? Like, the concern about the minimal channel size is if your channel size is too small,
853
01:07:15.480 --> 01:07:19.260
the on chain fee is gonna eat up the majority of the channel at time of close.
854
01:07:19.799 --> 01:07:23.275
When is close gonna happen? Is gonna happen in 5, 6 years?
855
01:07:23.655 --> 01:07:28.795
Is close gonna happen, forced closed by your channel partner in the middle of a super high fee environment?
856
01:07:29.495 --> 01:07:29.995
And
857
01:07:30.820 --> 01:07:36.360
we don't really we don't have, like, the we don't have the experience or the data to, like, back any of that shit up. Right?
858
01:07:37.300 --> 01:07:38.040
859
01:07:38.875 --> 01:07:43.855
still, you people need to understand this is a, you know, highly nascent experimental network.
860
01:07:44.555 --> 01:07:49.350
It's made a lot of gains in terms of, you know, growth and
861
01:07:50.290 --> 01:07:53.030
stability, but there's still a lot more to be ironed out.
862
01:07:53.570 --> 01:07:58.365
Like, example, the Lightning Labs guys, they're working on a new type of channel type called,
863
01:07:59.165 --> 01:07:59.985
anchor channels
864
01:08:00.285 --> 01:08:01.405
where you'll have,
865
01:08:02.045 --> 01:08:03.025
some fees.
866
01:08:05.210 --> 01:08:06.590
You'll you'll have UTXOs
867
01:08:06.890 --> 01:08:11.310
that are not in the channel, but they're dedicated to paying the fees afterwards.
868
01:08:11.694 --> 01:08:15.155
So, like, situations and schemes like this, they're gonna be mitigated
869
01:08:15.694 --> 01:08:16.094
as,
870
01:08:16.735 --> 01:08:24.409
you know, new funding types are are added to the network. So that'll be interesting to play out as that gets to clients. I think in
871
01:08:24.710 --> 01:08:26.409
l and d o point
872
01:08:27.035 --> 01:08:30.094
13, that should be out. So that'll be exciting.
873
01:08:31.195 --> 01:08:36.735
But, yeah, it's gonna there's a lot of challenges that we're gonna see on the network as it grows and scales up,
874
01:08:37.340 --> 01:08:40.880
and there's gonna be a lot of edge cases that people hadn't even thought about.
875
01:08:41.659 --> 01:08:42.159
So
876
01:08:42.699 --> 01:08:43.760
in these times,
877
01:08:44.345 --> 01:08:46.365
you know, you've gotta really,
878
01:08:47.465 --> 01:08:50.685
you know, think about the amount of funds that you're opening
879
01:08:51.440 --> 01:09:08.085
to people. Like, you shouldn't be opening up huge channels to strangers that screw you on channel close. Right? Like, if you're doing a bigger channel, it's nicer if that's with someone who you're friends with who you could send an email to or get on the phone with to sort out the issues you may have there.
880
01:09:09.230 --> 01:09:13.090
881
01:09:14.190 --> 01:09:18.185
He was perfect for me. Oh, wow. Well, that's good. I'm glad,
882
01:09:19.305 --> 01:09:21.005
glad everyone else heard at least.
883
01:09:21.945 --> 01:09:22.445
884
01:09:23.100 --> 01:09:28.080
Yeah. Just, gotta have good channel partners for, you know, your real big channels.
885
01:09:28.940 --> 01:09:33.094
You know, you're not gonna want to have massive amounts of,
886
01:09:34.675 --> 01:09:39.975
you know, capital up with some NIM that you don't know and you don't know the reputation of.
887
01:09:40.480 --> 01:09:46.420
888
01:09:46.800 --> 01:09:48.105
and just call it a day.
889
01:09:49.945 --> 01:09:50.765
890
01:09:51.145 --> 01:09:54.525
Open up to someone who's well connected to the network with a reputation
891
01:09:55.705 --> 01:09:56.205
and
892
01:09:57.100 --> 01:09:57.600
893
01:09:58.700 --> 01:10:00.240
894
01:10:02.380 --> 01:10:05.120
895
01:10:05.565 --> 01:10:16.080
896
01:10:16.960 --> 01:10:26.425
it's a lot harder to get back than just open reopening a channel. So, to make sure, like, you know, if you're, like, looping out, make sure it's through, like, a channel that you don't expect to close out, like, just some random
897
01:10:26.965 --> 01:10:28.425
note that connected to you.
898
01:10:31.230 --> 01:10:35.810
899
01:10:37.435 --> 01:10:41.535
We also have 6102 in the chat before I get there. Don't trust a nim. What the fuck?
900
01:10:42.235 --> 01:10:44.015
Thought lightning was meant to be trustless.
901
01:10:44.635 --> 01:10:45.615
Do you have a
902
01:10:48.240 --> 01:10:50.340
do you have a thought to respond to, Ben?
903
01:10:52.400 --> 01:10:54.900
904
01:10:56.315 --> 01:11:01.935
you know, you, it it reduces a lot of headaches if if you trust the other side of your,
905
01:11:02.315 --> 01:11:08.490
you know, of lighting. Like, they can't steal your money, but, you know, they could screw you over and, you know, make you pay a high on chain fee.
906
01:11:09.190 --> 01:11:11.930
So and there's, like, a problem. The village down.
907
01:11:12.685 --> 01:11:26.000
908
01:11:26.380 --> 01:11:27.520
you are trusting,
909
01:11:28.380 --> 01:11:30.240
the counterparty in certain situation.
910
01:11:31.535 --> 01:11:37.075
911
01:11:37.535 --> 01:11:38.035
minimized.
912
01:11:39.730 --> 01:11:40.227
I think,
913
01:11:41.890 --> 01:11:56.925
there's probably some edge cases where, like, money can be stolen as well, but most, you know, as, you know, like, they drain a channel in a high fee environment. The channel's, like, a low amount. You don't have a minimum channel size. Like, maybe they can end up taking money from you in that respect.
914
01:11:58.420 --> 01:11:58.920
But,
915
01:12:00.100 --> 01:12:00.600
the
916
01:12:03.140 --> 01:12:06.680
I've the the the key the key element here is
917
01:12:07.565 --> 01:12:12.385
is that if if you you you want channel partners that you think will
918
01:12:12.845 --> 01:12:17.290
exist for a long period of time. Right? Because if you have to keep opening and closed channels,
919
01:12:18.150 --> 01:12:26.855
it's gonna cost you significantly on on chain fees, and that's gonna be your main fee burden. I that's gonna be your main cost for running a Lightning node. Like, I saw that on
920
01:12:27.395 --> 01:12:30.935
on the on the stacking SaaS node before it was taken,
921
01:12:31.715 --> 01:12:32.455
was that
922
01:12:33.330 --> 01:12:37.910
you if if you if you just had a large amount of small little channels,
923
01:12:39.650 --> 01:12:50.135
you know, you're just you're gonna end up getting wrecked. You're gonna lose a ton of money. Money. And we have our boy, Anthony Ronning, in here, or Ronning. I apologize if I butchered your your last name.
924
01:12:50.995 --> 01:12:51.315
The
925
01:12:52.500 --> 01:12:56.920
he was bragging about using Lightning Pool to lease out liquidity,
926
01:12:57.620 --> 01:13:01.800
and that goes hand in hand with our boy, Daddy Warbits, that wants to talk about inbound,
927
01:13:02.725 --> 01:13:03.225
capacity.
928
01:13:03.605 --> 01:13:04.985
And the cool thing about
929
01:13:05.445 --> 01:13:09.385
Lightning Pool is that you can pay people in a
930
01:13:10.210 --> 01:13:11.830
somewhat distributed marketplace,
931
01:13:12.449 --> 01:13:17.190
to provide inbound liquidity to you. So, like, the way I look at Lightning is, like, it's like an abacus,
932
01:13:18.555 --> 01:13:31.700
which is like those Chinese math devices, right, where you move the beads from one side to the other, and it's and that the the Bitcoin's moving from one side the other, and you need to have the beads on your side to be able to spend. You need to have the beads on their side for them to spend to you.
933
01:13:32.560 --> 01:13:44.070
With Lightning Pool, you can get them to send you know, have beads on their side ready to send to you, and you pay them a fee for it. And a perfect example of not being ready for this high fee environment
934
01:13:44.690 --> 01:13:45.590
is Anthony,
935
01:13:46.610 --> 01:13:50.470
has been bragging to me about his trustless 10% that he's been earning.
936
01:13:50.845 --> 01:13:59.905
And then meanwhile, the on chain fees come in, and they just fucking take all his profit and turn it into loss. And he just gets fucking kicked in the balls. So it's, like, a perfect example of something
937
01:14:00.340 --> 01:14:02.500
that, like, really needed to be stress tested,
938
01:14:02.820 --> 01:14:05.480
with on chain fees, like, high on chain fees.
939
01:14:10.715 --> 01:14:11.614
I guess Yeah.
940
01:14:11.915 --> 01:14:21.300
941
01:14:21.680 --> 01:14:24.260
really sucks. I know, like, Cool has some
942
01:14:24.665 --> 01:14:30.764
improvements to do to mitigate that, where, like, right now, your channel closes into your lightning wallet, and then you have to do redo a transaction
943
01:14:31.680 --> 01:14:32.400
to your,
944
01:14:32.880 --> 01:14:36.500
to your pool wallet and then, you know, open the channel again. So
945
01:14:36.880 --> 01:14:39.140
you can reduce one of those transactions at least.
946
01:14:39.680 --> 01:14:39.760
But,
947
01:14:41.315 --> 01:14:50.920
yeah, there are, like you know, you kinda get screwed over there. And, you know, I mean, the nature is of Lightning, you you still have to do some on chain transactions. So you always have to account for that. And, hopefully,
948
01:14:51.300 --> 01:14:54.120
Pool can start to count that. Maybe they'll, like, add
949
01:14:54.420 --> 01:14:56.120
a a base fee plus,
950
01:14:56.500 --> 01:14:59.975
you know, the percent fee so you couldn't mitigate these closing,
951
01:15:00.355 --> 01:15:00.855
fees.
952
01:15:03.635 --> 01:15:04.295
953
01:15:04.675 --> 01:15:16.685
my my biggest concern about well, first of all, Anthony, I love you. Okay? He wants he wants Afrigs to know that he hasn't closed his channel yet, so he hasn't lost any stats yet. That's fine. You know, I'm just I'm just busting your balls.
954
01:15:17.245 --> 01:15:22.785
My my biggest concern about lightning, because I just experienced it myself for a fucking year,
955
01:15:23.565 --> 01:15:30.150
is it just really, really difficult for the average user to conceptualize on fee fee burden on chain fee burden.
956
01:15:30.690 --> 01:15:31.989
Right? It's just like,
957
01:15:34.534 --> 01:15:37.594
like, who knows? Like, humans just aren't good at conceptualizing,
958
01:15:38.135 --> 01:15:42.315
like, what is my what is the right fee I should be charging for my node's
959
01:15:42.770 --> 01:15:43.270
liquidity?
960
01:15:43.889 --> 01:15:51.989
Like, what is when I close this when is this channel gonna get closed? And when I close it, how much is it gonna cost me? Like, these are things that are just not easy to
961
01:15:52.705 --> 01:15:54.885
price in if if you if you'd say.
962
01:15:57.745 --> 01:16:07.500
963
01:16:07.800 --> 01:16:14.375
250. You kinda get screwed. So it's, like, kind of an impossible problem to solve, but, I mean, they'll lead mitigations.
964
01:16:15.715 --> 01:16:17.975
But, yeah, you kinda just get screwed there.
965
01:16:20.260 --> 01:16:23.239
966
01:16:23.780 --> 01:16:30.665
the most probably. It's, like, probably the single biggest thing. Right? Because you're reducing the percentage of that on chain fee burning period.
967
01:16:31.925 --> 01:16:33.865
But that kinda sucks. Right? Like, I
968
01:16:34.565 --> 01:16:35.625
I saw Grubles,
969
01:16:36.100 --> 01:16:42.520
our boy, Grubles finally, like, decided he was gonna dive headfirst into lightning, and he was just, like, struck by, like,
970
01:16:42.900 --> 01:16:52.535
he couldn't open any channels with people, like, the large nodes because they just we're all men channel sizing them, you know, like, 5,000,000 SaaS. You gotta you need a pony of $3,000
971
01:16:52.915 --> 01:16:54.295
to open a channel with us.
972
01:16:55.070 --> 01:16:59.730
Yeah. Greg's like, oh, look, there's a there's a limit, so, it's not trustless.
973
01:17:02.455 --> 01:17:12.075
But that's the issue. Right? It's, like, those parties don't know what to price themselves at, so the single biggest thing they could do is just make the channel size as high as, like, a higher rate.
974
01:17:13.210 --> 01:17:13.710
975
01:17:17.610 --> 01:17:20.750
It's crazy. And then over time, you know, even those min limits,
976
01:17:21.225 --> 01:17:24.265
there are even bigger channels as number goes up too. So
977
01:17:25.385 --> 01:17:26.445
oh, man. Okay.
978
01:17:26.825 --> 01:17:29.325
979
01:17:30.200 --> 01:17:31.720
very good 3 d printer gun talk,
980
01:17:33.880 --> 01:17:42.284
which, by the way, just to push back against the freaks that were a little bit upset about that, like, the it's it's the same it's the same idea. It's information wants to be free.
981
01:17:44.025 --> 01:17:48.820
You know, it's it's a it's part of the free open source movement. It's probably one of the strongest,
982
01:17:50.560 --> 01:17:52.740
new defensive technologies we have,
983
01:17:54.560 --> 01:18:02.045
along with Bitcoin, so I it definitely goes hand in hand. So I I don't think it was off topic. Definitely not off topic for Citadel Dispatch. I mean,
984
01:18:02.665 --> 01:18:04.765
you know, this is a Bitcoin first show, but
985
01:18:05.119 --> 01:18:07.059
it's it's not only a Bitcoin show.
986
01:18:07.920 --> 01:18:11.699
So then we had 14 minutes of that. We had an hour conversation
987
01:18:12.000 --> 01:18:14.260
about lightning and transaction fees.
988
01:18:16.455 --> 01:18:18.775
So let's let's jump into the good stuff. Let's,
989
01:18:19.575 --> 01:18:20.635
Taproot activation.
990
01:18:21.550 --> 01:18:25.330
Are we are we excited about speedy trial getting merged into core?
991
01:18:25.710 --> 01:18:27.650
Are we gonna have Taproot in November?
992
01:18:30.075 --> 01:18:31.775
What should the freaks know about this?
993
01:18:32.635 --> 01:18:37.535
994
01:18:38.920 --> 01:18:52.615
And, I don't know. It's super cool to see. I mean, it finally happens. Like, I know, like, 2 weeks ago, since then on Twitter, like, people were just like, is this thing even gonna happen? But now it's like, you know, I'm running speedy trial on this laptop I'm using right now. Like, you know, it's happening.
995
01:18:53.395 --> 01:18:56.535
And, and we're gonna need minor signal. But,
996
01:18:57.380 --> 01:19:04.360
you know, it seems like it's happening at least. And, you know, you can run the client if you want, and there really should be sometime this week.
997
01:19:06.055 --> 01:19:09.515
998
01:19:09.895 --> 01:19:11.435
So, you know, people should
999
01:19:12.295 --> 01:19:17.580
test it out if you're gonna be using it. Don't mess around with it. I know Know a lot of people have upgraded their nodes already.
1000
01:19:18.680 --> 01:19:22.380
But, yeah, all in all, it's just really exciting stuff, as Ben said.
1001
01:19:23.135 --> 01:19:26.835
We have a clean path for miners to activate,
1002
01:19:27.775 --> 01:19:31.395
and, you know, chances of that are are really, really high.
1003
01:19:32.200 --> 01:19:33.820
We were hanging out after,
1004
01:19:34.840 --> 01:19:38.860
what was it, after bit dev, after we had dinner at the barbecue joint,
1005
01:19:39.195 --> 01:19:42.495
and, we went to some bar afterwards, and I was messing with Ben. I said,
1006
01:19:42.955 --> 01:19:43.775
I don't know.
1007
01:19:44.715 --> 01:19:49.739
We this probably won't go through without a user activated software, then you start bugging out.
1008
01:19:51.640 --> 01:19:58.695
But yeah. Yeah. I mean, a lot of Bitcoiners right now, they still have that PTSD from, you know, Segwit and whatnot.
1009
01:19:59.475 --> 01:20:07.159
But chances are, this is gonna be merged in. We're gonna have it this year. And even if the miners don't activate and we have to do a user activated soft work,
1010
01:20:07.460 --> 01:20:09.559
you know, it will be with good merit. And,
1011
01:20:10.659 --> 01:20:17.685
you know, we're we're gonna have this very important upgrade to Bitcoin, and that's gonna pave the way for even more important upgrades. So
1012
01:20:18.625 --> 01:20:25.889
1013
01:20:26.929 --> 01:20:31.030
you know, most of them were, like, pretty seamless, and, you know, Taproot should be the same.
1014
01:20:31.409 --> 01:20:35.005
And, like, hopefully, Segwit was just the anomaly. And, you know,
1015
01:20:35.385 --> 01:20:37.885
and even if we are wrong in this thing, you know,
1016
01:20:38.344 --> 01:20:41.070
you know, it's speedy trial fails, well, we can just
1017
01:20:42.030 --> 01:20:45.570
use, Luke dash junior CYSF client and, actually,
1018
01:20:46.829 --> 01:20:47.489
you know,
1019
01:20:47.869 --> 01:20:48.770
get it in.
1020
01:20:49.310 --> 01:20:49.810
Yep.
1021
01:20:50.935 --> 01:20:54.695
1022
01:20:55.575 --> 01:20:57.995
Luke is a contrarian that we need in our community.
1023
01:21:00.070 --> 01:21:00.890
1024
01:21:01.510 --> 01:21:02.570
Luke is just
1025
01:21:04.390 --> 01:21:10.905
he's posted links to it. He's saying he's not connected to it. Right? I guess Shinobi and at Grassfed Beef are,
1026
01:21:11.385 --> 01:21:11.885
claiming
1027
01:21:12.985 --> 01:21:15.324
that they're behind that UASF fork.
1028
01:21:16.105 --> 01:21:16.925
1029
01:21:17.304 --> 01:21:17.804
client.
1030
01:21:18.809 --> 01:21:20.829
Guess I misread that. Shouts to them then.
1031
01:21:21.530 --> 01:21:25.630
1032
01:21:26.010 --> 01:21:27.309
1033
01:21:28.305 --> 01:21:31.265
But, yeah, I mean, as much as you may not agree with,
1034
01:21:31.905 --> 01:21:34.725
that option and you might not wanna run it,
1035
01:21:35.310 --> 01:21:42.850
you can complain with the option being there. You know? We we might actually need it if the miners don't activate, so that'll be good.
1036
01:21:44.125 --> 01:21:48.704
1037
01:21:49.164 --> 01:21:51.824
like, October, November, something like that. So,
1038
01:21:52.150 --> 01:22:01.110
you know, we it would be a while until we actually UASF, but it does give, like, a good amount of time for, you know, the ecosystem to get ready if we are gonna do it. So, like, you know, it won't be
1039
01:22:01.785 --> 01:22:10.125
it's not like, you know, in the like, this November or something, we start, like, this chain splitting because they this guy released this client. Like, we should be
1040
01:22:10.790 --> 01:22:12.090
should be mostly fine.
1041
01:22:13.750 --> 01:22:18.170
1042
01:22:18.975 --> 01:22:24.355
I'm expecting a lot of wallets and institutions to have support for Taproot this year.
1043
01:22:25.295 --> 01:22:35.935
Let's see how widespread it'll actually be because of the tech debt that these people have, and we know how long it took for Segwit to get activated on a lot of, different exchanges and
1044
01:22:36.895 --> 01:22:43.955
1045
01:22:44.500 --> 01:22:46.040
which I'm not going to name,
1046
01:22:46.420 --> 01:22:48.679
finally merged Segwit, like, yesterday.
1047
01:22:50.020 --> 01:22:50.600
Oh, no.
1048
01:22:51.060 --> 01:22:54.135
I mean, I think you guys know his wallet I'm talking about. I don't even wanna give
1049
01:22:54.695 --> 01:23:01.914
1050
01:23:02.230 --> 01:23:07.130
1051
01:23:08.150 --> 01:23:10.685
1052
01:23:11.245 --> 01:23:13.645
1053
01:23:14.045 --> 01:23:14.865
fee spike.
1054
01:23:17.405 --> 01:23:18.305
Oh, man.
1055
01:23:18.845 --> 01:23:19.345
But,
1056
01:23:21.290 --> 01:23:28.045
what is 6102 wants me to put his Taproot timeline on. I'm guessing you sent that to me through something else.
1057
01:23:28.605 --> 01:23:29.505
For the record,
1058
01:23:30.285 --> 01:23:33.105
I currently think I'm gonna lose my bet with Marty,
1059
01:23:35.300 --> 01:23:37.880
which was the deadline was,
1060
01:23:39.620 --> 01:23:44.200
the end of this year, Taproot, and the loser has to pay a 1,000,000 sets
1061
01:23:44.975 --> 01:23:46.995
to HRF's dev fund.
1062
01:23:48.975 --> 01:23:52.710
But I also wanna be clear that I'm, you know, humbly
1063
01:23:53.170 --> 01:23:57.030
believing that my my simple 1,000,000 sat bet,
1064
01:23:58.770 --> 01:23:59.590
helped incentivize
1065
01:24:00.130 --> 01:24:00.630
Marty
1066
01:24:01.095 --> 01:24:01.835
to push
1067
01:24:02.295 --> 01:24:03.115
core devs,
1068
01:24:03.575 --> 01:24:07.595
to push Taproot, and that's why we're getting it before the end of the year. So,
1069
01:24:08.535 --> 01:24:09.195
you're welcome.
1070
01:24:12.110 --> 01:24:14.930
1071
01:24:16.555 --> 01:24:20.255
1072
01:24:20.955 --> 01:24:24.520
a PR into Bitcoin Core that adds spending functionality that'd
1073
01:24:26.180 --> 01:24:30.024
be really cool if you know most people don't use Bitcoin
1074
01:24:30.420 --> 01:24:35.115
Core, but, That'd be really cool if, you know, you know, most people don't use Bitcoin Core, but,
1075
01:24:35.735 --> 01:24:38.395
that'd be awesome if it actually could use it. And,
1076
01:24:39.570 --> 01:24:48.790
you know, that's that's like a lot of, you know, a lot of things are built on top of Bitcoin Core. So maybe, you know, it'd be trivial for other people to start implementing if Bitcoin Core has support.
1077
01:24:49.345 --> 01:24:57.205
But we do have a problem as well where there's a new address type where address encoding where we're using best 32 m. This is the best 32.
1078
01:24:57.800 --> 01:25:00.300
So there's a niche bug in best 32.
1079
01:25:01.480 --> 01:25:05.580
So there will be some we'll have to go through the same headache again of everyone implementing
1080
01:25:06.175 --> 01:25:12.355
the ability to parse these addresses and then send to them. So, hopefully, that comes soon, but, you know, we'll see.
1081
01:25:15.430 --> 01:25:18.170
1082
01:25:19.430 --> 01:25:20.970
1083
01:25:21.655 --> 01:25:23.195
1084
01:25:24.135 --> 01:25:27.175
1085
01:25:28.295 --> 01:25:29.835
we're close to ossification.
1086
01:25:30.470 --> 01:25:33.050
But although it does feel like that with
1087
01:25:33.510 --> 01:25:36.650
the struggle, the push and the pull from all the sides,
1088
01:25:37.190 --> 01:25:39.855
I'm I'm not convinced that we're close to ossification.
1089
01:25:40.635 --> 01:25:41.855
1090
01:25:42.475 --> 01:25:45.855
tappered timeline that he wanted me to post, for the Video Freak.
1091
01:25:47.960 --> 01:25:51.980
So he's got the speedy trial activation window to August.
1092
01:25:56.120 --> 01:25:57.100
Oh, that's great.
1093
01:25:58.025 --> 01:25:59.165
This is right. Right?
1094
01:26:00.345 --> 01:26:00.845
1095
01:26:01.305 --> 01:26:02.445
From April 24th
1096
01:26:03.065 --> 01:26:04.285
to August 11th
1097
01:26:05.210 --> 01:26:07.310
to activate via speedy trial.
1098
01:26:08.330 --> 01:26:08.810
And,
1099
01:26:09.370 --> 01:26:09.870
Taproot
1100
01:26:10.330 --> 01:26:10.830
UASF
1101
01:26:11.210 --> 01:26:12.030
BIP 8
1102
01:26:12.565 --> 01:26:14.665
block equals true, which is the UASF,
1103
01:26:15.925 --> 01:26:18.025
starts at the same point and runs through,
1104
01:26:18.645 --> 01:26:20.425
what is that, October 14,
1105
01:26:20.725 --> 01:26:21.225
2022?
1106
01:26:23.340 --> 01:26:23.840
1107
01:26:24.540 --> 01:26:30.215
That's what it looks like on this chart. I thought it was earlier than I thought it was, like, gonna be, like, March 2022 or something like that, April 29,
1108
01:26:30.835 --> 01:26:31.335
2022,
1109
01:26:33.555 --> 01:26:40.980
but I don't know. I'd trust 6102 on that. I mean, look. At the end of the day, like, what? We we expect we expect 90%.
1110
01:26:41.600 --> 01:26:44.180
We already have 90% of miners on taprootactivation.com,
1111
01:26:45.435 --> 01:26:46.855
if you wanna trust that,
1112
01:26:47.595 --> 01:26:48.735
privately telling,
1113
01:26:50.635 --> 01:26:55.340
the guy who runs that site that they're going to signal for Taproot. Right? So
1114
01:26:55.980 --> 01:27:02.480
really, what happens is we talked about it this whole fucking time, and this is what's nice about speedy trial. It's, like, fuck all these arguments.
1115
01:27:03.135 --> 01:27:08.435
You have the speedy trial window, you have a 3 month window, and if the miner's signal 90%, over 90%,
1116
01:27:08.975 --> 01:27:10.995
then you don't have to worry about all the other
1117
01:27:12.540 --> 01:27:16.240
arguments. Right? Unless you have some kind of, like, hostile UASF,
1118
01:27:17.580 --> 01:27:21.895
to to try and veto any kind of change. Right? That's, like, the ultimate check.
1119
01:27:22.195 --> 01:27:22.695
1120
01:27:24.595 --> 01:27:27.815
1121
01:27:28.900 --> 01:27:29.800
1122
01:27:31.539 --> 01:27:32.039
1123
01:27:32.900 --> 01:27:34.840
Ben, you've been, like, Taproot
1124
01:27:35.995 --> 01:27:40.175
king over here. Like, you love talking about Taproot. Did we cover what you wanna cover here?
1125
01:27:41.114 --> 01:27:44.655
1126
01:27:46.790 --> 01:27:52.890
it's fine. I've, like, kinda fallen into this role or someone asked me to explain it to them. So I, like, read the bips a few times, and now
1127
01:27:53.375 --> 01:27:59.875
now I've become, like, the Twitter guy for Taproot. But, it's been fun. Getting in on all the IRC chats is great, man. Great to see.
1128
01:28:00.255 --> 01:28:03.470
1129
01:28:04.250 --> 01:28:05.470
I do not trust taprootactivation.com.
1130
01:28:06.250 --> 01:28:06.990
I said
1131
01:28:07.370 --> 01:28:14.055
that, yeah, I thought I made clear that I don't trust it, and I would actually go farther and say that just because miners signal
1132
01:28:14.515 --> 01:28:17.175
doesn't mean that they're actually running the client.
1133
01:28:17.475 --> 01:28:18.614
They can just lie,
1134
01:28:19.890 --> 01:28:21.350
and they could actually signal
1135
01:28:21.810 --> 01:28:23.190
that they're different miners
1136
01:28:23.890 --> 01:28:24.630
and lie.
1137
01:28:25.330 --> 01:28:32.215
This whole idea that we know which block is mined by which miner is a voluntary process where the miner
1138
01:28:32.675 --> 01:28:33.655
doxes themselves.
1139
01:28:34.275 --> 01:28:35.415
So they could theoretically
1140
01:28:36.195 --> 01:28:36.695
and,
1141
01:28:37.480 --> 01:28:47.415
you know, fortunately for the Bitcoin network, I've never been a large pool, but if I was a large pool, I'd be fucking around with those numbers all the time. Like, I have to totally fucking pretend that I was other pools.
1142
01:28:51.315 --> 01:28:54.190
So I'm glad we got that out of the way, 6102. Thank you.
1143
01:28:54.910 --> 01:28:56.290
When Taproot Queen,
1144
01:28:57.390 --> 01:28:57.890
Ben?
1145
01:28:59.949 --> 01:29:01.010
That's from Ty.
1146
01:29:03.615 --> 01:29:10.175
Why I mention it? 61 61 twos asked me why I mentioned it. I mentioned it because it's a data point. It's a fucking data point. So,
1147
01:29:11.110 --> 01:29:15.050
if if if if that's what we have, then you're gonna mention the data point.
1148
01:29:16.870 --> 01:29:19.770
Okay. So we'll see if Taproot gets activated now. 6102
1149
01:29:20.070 --> 01:29:22.395
has decided that he's he's going to,
1150
01:29:23.415 --> 01:29:29.755
single man stop it. The cool thing about Bitcoin, I think, and what makes Bitcoin valuable is that it's hard to fucking change.
1151
01:29:30.450 --> 01:29:31.990
So if it's hard to change,
1152
01:29:33.730 --> 01:29:37.910
then it means it's hard to change for the negative, and and we should be grateful,
1153
01:29:39.075 --> 01:29:40.935
that every time there's a change,
1154
01:29:41.475 --> 01:29:43.895
a significant change, that there is opposition,
1155
01:29:44.515 --> 01:29:45.335
there's concern,
1156
01:29:47.010 --> 01:29:52.310
because things that are easy to change will just always almost always get corrupted, and that's, you know,
1157
01:29:52.690 --> 01:29:55.265
basically the exact opposite of what Bitcoin's about.
1158
01:29:55.905 --> 01:30:03.765
1159
01:30:04.610 --> 01:30:05.750
You know, it's an adversarial,
1160
01:30:06.690 --> 01:30:08.150
minded system, and,
1161
01:30:08.849 --> 01:30:10.309
you know, we're grateful for that.
1162
01:30:12.364 --> 01:30:12.864
1163
01:30:13.885 --> 01:30:15.824
So let's talk about discrete log contracts.
1164
01:30:16.605 --> 01:30:18.705
1165
01:30:19.630 --> 01:30:39.440
1166
01:30:39.900 --> 01:30:44.855
But, it's happening. And, like, you know, we can actually do DLCs and, you know, like,
1167
01:30:45.335 --> 01:30:45.815
me and,
1168
01:30:46.535 --> 01:30:51.675
my boss, Chris, we did a DLC, like, if Elon showed up to the meet up yes or last week. So,
1169
01:30:52.135 --> 01:30:53.835
you know, it works. And,
1170
01:30:54.909 --> 01:30:55.489
1171
01:30:56.190 --> 01:31:01.650
1172
01:31:02.215 --> 01:31:02.715
Yeah.
1173
01:31:03.655 --> 01:31:10.395
1174
01:31:11.429 --> 01:31:22.555
you're not solving the trust problem of who reports it, but you're you're solving the fact that who reports it is different than who settles the bet. Right? Like, usually, right now, like, you have a
1175
01:31:23.655 --> 01:31:28.715
a casino or something, we'll set a line, and we'll say, I have up on the screen right now,
1176
01:31:29.150 --> 01:31:30.370
Evan created this,
1177
01:31:31.790 --> 01:31:35.410
DLC about, will Citadel dispatch today on 4/20
1178
01:31:36.085 --> 01:31:38.265
2021 exceed 2 and a half hours?
1179
01:31:38.965 --> 01:31:47.180
Usually, a betting company would would offer that, and they would take custody of your funds. They would know who made the bet, and they would settle those funds.
1180
01:31:47.640 --> 01:31:49.020
With the with the DLC,
1181
01:31:50.600 --> 01:31:52.540
the people who say what happened
1182
01:31:53.000 --> 01:31:53.500
versus
1183
01:31:54.475 --> 01:31:58.975
who has control of the funds being settled are separate. Would you agree on that premise?
1184
01:31:59.595 --> 01:32:05.969
1185
01:32:06.270 --> 01:32:09.865
So, like, what we're doing here is, like, you know, we would take Evan's here announcement
1186
01:32:10.245 --> 01:32:12.425
and put that into our software, and then
1187
01:32:13.045 --> 01:32:14.345
we would just create transactions
1188
01:32:15.045 --> 01:32:15.785
that would,
1189
01:32:16.380 --> 01:32:19.599
you know, be based off what he's gonna sign. And he'll sign, you know,
1190
01:32:20.219 --> 01:32:23.440
yes or no, depending on how long the show goes.
1191
01:32:23.755 --> 01:32:25.135
And then with that signature,
1192
01:32:25.675 --> 01:32:28.335
we're able to take that and execute our contract.
1193
01:32:28.715 --> 01:32:33.660
So Evan now he doesn't even need to know that, I used him or anyone used him,
1194
01:32:34.380 --> 01:32:35.120
as well
1195
01:32:35.500 --> 01:32:43.955
as we have this, you know, thing where, you know, the the whole entire Bitcoin blockchain is even though we use an oracle. We're just doing, like, you know, funding a multisig
1196
01:32:44.655 --> 01:32:51.540
and sending the funds out of the multisig. So it's a really simple setup. It just, requires some option, fancy cryptography.
1197
01:32:54.000 --> 01:32:58.190
1198
01:32:58.835 --> 01:33:01.495
It's a little Java app called Crystal Bull,
1199
01:33:02.035 --> 01:33:04.135
and, I thought it was a really smooth
1200
01:33:04.515 --> 01:33:05.015
experience
1201
01:33:05.395 --> 01:33:22.514
running it for the most part. I got a couple issues with my my Java runtime. But it's like a really nice UI, and you could just type everything out, say what the possible outputs are. It doesn't necessarily have to be a, like, a true or a false. Right? You could have multiple,
1202
01:33:24.150 --> 01:33:26.330
you know, outcomes potential outcomes.
1203
01:33:26.949 --> 01:33:31.610
And, Yeah. Once I got my announcement hacks, I just posted it into oracles.
1204
01:33:31.965 --> 01:33:32.465
Sharedbits.com,
1205
01:33:32.925 --> 01:33:36.065
and I got it listed there. Added a little bit of a description.
1206
01:33:36.764 --> 01:33:40.704
You really should flesh that out. We'll try to spell out the terms exactly.
1207
01:33:41.810 --> 01:33:46.950
But yeah. But that Oracle, that's separate from, like, an actual bet contract. You still need
1208
01:33:47.490 --> 01:33:51.224
to pull it into something like Bitcoin as into some sort
1209
01:33:52.244 --> 01:33:55.625
of contract to say, okay. This is Ben's
1210
01:33:57.280 --> 01:33:58.820
address to pay out to
1211
01:33:59.200 --> 01:34:03.060
if, you know, condition a happened. Here's Evans if the other one happens. Right?
1212
01:34:03.435 --> 01:34:14.909
1213
01:34:15.210 --> 01:34:15.949
But then,
1214
01:34:17.210 --> 01:34:27.645
in conjunction with the Oracle software, we have, like, our DLC wallet that's built in Bitcoin s where, you know, we can you know, I would paste in your announcement and then, you know, type in, like, you know, a fee rate and
1215
01:34:28.025 --> 01:34:31.245
different payouts I want for all of your different outcomes. And then,
1216
01:34:32.180 --> 01:34:35.480
and I could, like, set that up at the counterparty. They accept my thing,
1217
01:34:35.780 --> 01:34:38.760
my contract, and you're like, okay. I'll take the other side of this bet.
1218
01:34:39.145 --> 01:34:39.864
And then,
1219
01:34:40.344 --> 01:34:44.744
you know, once you actually sign your message of what happened, we could close our contract. And,
1220
01:34:45.864 --> 01:34:49.400
yeah, that's so like it's like there's, like, 2 completely separate entities here that,
1221
01:34:50.520 --> 01:34:55.820
oh, I mean, the the clients need to get the signatures and announcement from the Oracle.
1222
01:34:56.325 --> 01:35:00.585
But, otherwise, they're, like, you know, completely independent. Don't really need to talk to each other.
1223
01:35:03.580 --> 01:35:12.080
1224
01:35:12.625 --> 01:35:15.845
report whether or not this actually goes over 2 and a half hours.
1225
01:35:16.305 --> 01:35:16.805
Mhmm.
1226
01:35:17.985 --> 01:35:18.485
The
1227
01:35:19.240 --> 01:35:24.460
the holy grail, right, is this idea of multiple oracles. Do you wanna go into that a bit?
1228
01:35:24.920 --> 01:35:32.065
1229
01:35:32.525 --> 01:35:39.110
we have to solely trust him. And, you know, you know, Evan's a cool guy, but, you know, maybe he gets drunk after this and screws it up
1230
01:35:39.490 --> 01:35:40.870
and signs the wrong message.
1231
01:35:41.545 --> 01:35:59.685
And, you know, you don't maybe or you just don't wanna put your full trust in him. So we could do something where, you know, we could do, like, a 2 of 3 setup where, say, like, I like me, Matt, and Evan all do, an oracle for how long this show goes. And then you could set up a contract that says, like, you know, if 2 of 3 of them have the same answer, then we'll execute.
1232
01:36:00.625 --> 01:36:03.685
If not, then, you know, then we'll, you know, we'll
1233
01:36:04.145 --> 01:36:09.420
do a refund or something. So that way, you know, if Evan does go get drunk and, you know, he signs the wrong message,
1234
01:36:09.800 --> 01:36:11.020
well, then we can,
1235
01:36:11.320 --> 01:36:24.870
still execute and, you know, then we and then we also have, like, this cryptographic signature from Evan saying he lied. So he could say, like, hey. Don't use Evan as an oracle. He he lied. And so it gives you that nice thing where, like, you're not solely relying on a single counterparty,
1236
01:36:25.250 --> 01:36:27.670
but you can still execute your contracts. And,
1237
01:36:28.530 --> 01:36:35.765
you know, you're really you're not, like, removing trust, but you're distributing it. And it should make it a lot harder. Because now, like, say for betting, like, $1,000,000
1238
01:36:36.385 --> 01:36:40.165
and Matt's like, okay. I'm just gonna go bribe Evan so I can get my contract.
1239
01:36:40.705 --> 01:36:47.560
You know, now you have to bribe all like, 22 of 3 of us. Or, you know, if you have, like, 509, there's even more people to bribe. And,
1240
01:36:48.199 --> 01:36:50.120
you know, it makes it harder to do. And,
1241
01:36:51.205 --> 01:36:58.985
yeah. And another really nice properties too is, like, the all these oracles don't need to collaborate with each other. They're just gonna post their announcements and post their signatures.
1242
01:36:59.620 --> 01:37:07.880
And then, you know, the the users go and just taking that data, and their wallet handles the rest. Or it's like, we don't need to know that each other exists. I'm just gonna sign the message saying this thing's happening.
1243
01:37:08.365 --> 01:37:19.300
And, you know, I don't need to know if someone's using me in a one of 1 contract, in a 2 of 3, in a 66 of a 100. It could be whatever. It's just, you know, the Oracle just just does their normal workflow.
1244
01:37:20.880 --> 01:37:22.900
1245
01:37:23.440 --> 01:37:28.975
a lot of the trust in Oracle is gonna sort of function to similar systems in the space,
1246
01:37:29.675 --> 01:37:31.755
where a lot of it is is reputation based. Right?
1247
01:37:33.515 --> 01:37:34.850
And it could
1248
01:37:35.310 --> 01:37:36.989
also develop, like, a sort of,
1249
01:37:37.630 --> 01:37:39.489
fee market for the oracles too,
1250
01:37:40.110 --> 01:37:41.969
in that the oracles can charge,
1251
01:37:42.375 --> 01:37:44.715
you know, users for the attestation
1252
01:37:45.175 --> 01:37:45.675
hexes,
1253
01:37:46.535 --> 01:37:51.675
on their own platform since these attestation hashes, they're not broadcast to, like, a blockchain.
1254
01:37:52.750 --> 01:37:53.810
You know, you have to
1255
01:37:54.350 --> 01:37:58.530
distribute it somewhere. Like, for example, this is distributed on the shared bit site.
1256
01:37:59.895 --> 01:38:16.400
1257
01:38:16.935 --> 01:38:21.594
So now you're getting a little bit of income, and, you know, you're incentivized more to, like, not screw this up.
1258
01:38:21.895 --> 01:38:28.400
Another way that we, seen, that we've came over recently from, like, copying what John Carballa is doing with his podcast,
1259
01:38:28.780 --> 01:38:30.639
where he's, like, putting up a bounty basically
1260
01:38:31.099 --> 01:38:32.059
to unlock it to
1261
01:38:33.495 --> 01:38:38.235
so then, you know, like, once, say, people pay a 100,000 stats, then it distributes the podcast.
1262
01:38:38.535 --> 01:38:44.369
You can do the same thing with, like, your Oracle signatures. You know, like, once enough people pay up, then we're gonna unlock this and,
1263
01:38:45.570 --> 01:38:49.349
you know, give give the signatures out. And this provides a really nice mechanism.
1264
01:38:49.730 --> 01:39:01.180
I mean, both of these do where since you have, like, it's a market function now, the Oracle is getting signal of, like, what events that, people want as well as, you know, you can create, like, a market for, you know,
1265
01:39:01.660 --> 01:39:10.720
how expensive and how trustworthy an oracle would be. So if, you know, if I'm being an oracle and I'm only you know, it only costs a 100 sats to unlock my signatures
1266
01:39:11.325 --> 01:39:28.350
versus, like, you know, Kraken or something who costs a 100,000 sats. And they're, you know, a lot you know, if they're a lot more expensive, they might be a lot more trust waiting. You know, if they're getting enough volume to do that, you know, they they might be worth it. And, you know, the market's signaling that, you know, it's worth it to get the Kraken signatures versus Ben signatures. And,
1267
01:39:28.985 --> 01:39:33.885
it's really cool that, you know, we're able to figure these things out. And, hopefully, we can start actually building this stuff soon.
1268
01:39:35.225 --> 01:39:36.685
1269
01:39:38.810 --> 01:39:42.829
We got a question asking, are there any other use cases
1270
01:39:43.130 --> 01:39:45.710
for DLC other than gambling or betting?
1271
01:39:48.155 --> 01:39:54.655
1272
01:39:55.195 --> 01:40:01.840
teased this out recently, but they're launching, like, options contract trading. This is all built on top of DLCs.
1273
01:40:02.460 --> 01:40:04.480
So then that's gonna be, like, a way for,
1274
01:40:05.179 --> 01:40:06.719
like, people to generate, like,
1275
01:40:07.045 --> 01:40:13.145
yield, like, you know, with some price risk. But, you know, if you're selling, like, covered calls for, like, a 120 k Bitcoin,
1276
01:40:13.605 --> 01:40:18.110
you could, like, get some, mild income in there. But, you know, you know, if price goes up, you're gonna,
1277
01:40:18.730 --> 01:40:25.844
you know, you'll sell your Bitcoin on accident or, you know, not not get as much back. But, do you know there's ways to use this where you could do, like, financial contracts.
1278
01:40:26.705 --> 01:40:28.885
But, otherwise, like, you know, like, today,
1279
01:40:29.300 --> 01:40:38.425
it's not really a full flush out ecosystem, so we're probably just gonna be, like, gambling and betting initially. But, you know, you can build out, like, basically any contract on top of this. Awesome.
1280
01:40:38.805 --> 01:40:43.065
1281
01:40:43.605 --> 01:40:44.105
creating
1282
01:40:44.485 --> 01:40:44.805
and,
1283
01:40:45.620 --> 01:40:47.640
creating an event and creating an attestation,
1284
01:40:48.740 --> 01:40:51.160
none of this is recorded on chain. Is that correct?
1285
01:40:52.580 --> 01:40:53.720
1286
01:40:54.175 --> 01:40:54.975
tell at all that,
1287
01:40:55.614 --> 01:41:16.865
like, which Oracles was used. Like, even the Oracle can't tell that they were used. All they all it looks like is just, like, normal transaction funding a multi sig and then normal transaction spending from the multi sig. So, like, none of this oracle stuff is even relevant to the blockchain. You know? If like I said, like, if Bitcoin just completely disappeared today, the Oracle would do the exact same thing and it still worked. Like,
1288
01:41:17.405 --> 01:41:24.599
it's really just, like, about what the users are doing off chain. So, like, and to break it down a little more, like, what you're actually doing is
1289
01:41:24.980 --> 01:41:32.440
you're creating, like so, like, you for, like, this for your case where you have, you know, yes or no, does it go over 2 and a half hours?
1290
01:41:32.755 --> 01:41:39.670
Mhmm. If I wanna do a a contract with you, I would create 2 transactions, one for the yes case and one for the no case.
1291
01:41:40.150 --> 01:41:42.010
And then, I'll give you signatures
1292
01:41:42.310 --> 01:41:43.850
for both that are encrypted,
1293
01:41:44.310 --> 01:41:47.610
and they can only be decrypted by the actual Oracle signature.
1294
01:41:48.310 --> 01:41:48.810
So
1295
01:41:49.895 --> 01:41:58.395
so if you just sign, like, you know, yes or no, whatever one, I'll take that, message, and then now I can use that as a private key or calculate a private key to actually
1296
01:41:59.130 --> 01:42:04.270
decrypt the one signature that's valid. Now I have a valid transaction that I can spend on chain.
1297
01:42:04.650 --> 01:42:05.995
And, so it's all, like,
1298
01:42:06.475 --> 01:42:18.760
all all of your DLC logic is all happening off chain. So no one can tell, like, what your contract is or, you know, what the terms were, what Oracles you're using, or anything about it. All I can see is, you know, funds moved from multisig
1299
01:42:19.139 --> 01:42:21.159
to, you know, payout address.
1300
01:42:21.860 --> 01:42:23.480
1301
01:42:24.905 --> 01:42:25.405
Privacy
1302
01:42:25.785 --> 01:42:26.925
for the oracles.
1303
01:42:28.745 --> 01:42:30.765
1304
01:42:31.145 --> 01:42:32.605
in the chat asking,
1305
01:42:33.550 --> 01:42:35.409
how does Lightning fit into this?
1306
01:42:36.909 --> 01:42:48.665
1307
01:42:49.590 --> 01:42:54.070
you know, platform. So it can be done on Lightning. It can be done on Liquid. It can be done on,
1308
01:42:55.110 --> 01:42:59.875
you know, Ruben Thompson's fancy, like, atomic swaps off chain thing.
1309
01:43:00.735 --> 01:43:04.115
So, like, anything, like, you know, that has multisig and,
1310
01:43:04.895 --> 01:43:11.800
signatures can be done. And it's like since we're getting Xnort, you know, you get that inherently with anything that's using Xnort. So,
1311
01:43:13.060 --> 01:43:23.304
it'll be doable on lightning. You know, it might be a while before we can actually build out the proper tooling because we do need, well, we will need some snore on lightning to do it.
1312
01:43:23.960 --> 01:43:24.460
But,
1313
01:43:24.840 --> 01:43:28.139
you know, it's coming and, you know, it'll take a bit, but it's possible.
1314
01:43:28.760 --> 01:43:30.380
1315
01:43:30.840 --> 01:43:32.139
point in time lock contracts?
1316
01:43:32.795 --> 01:43:34.094
1317
01:43:34.555 --> 01:43:35.055
PTLCs
1318
01:43:35.515 --> 01:43:44.390
to do it. I mean, you can do it without it, but, like, you know, you could do it, like, within a single channel. Like, if I had a Lightning channel to you, I could we could fill a contract on there.
1319
01:43:44.770 --> 01:43:55.145
But, you know, it's not the best you know, it's not really Lightning. Like, first of the Lightning, it's like routing payments across the network. And to do, like, a a contract route across the network, you need PTLCs.
1320
01:43:56.085 --> 01:44:00.265
So, because then here are just our points are just tweaked by
1321
01:44:00.680 --> 01:44:06.300
the, the Oracle's information. And then we get the signature, we get the correct information to claim the payment.
1322
01:44:08.040 --> 01:44:08.540
1323
01:44:09.615 --> 01:44:18.835
1324
01:44:19.440 --> 01:44:24.179
1325
01:44:24.560 --> 01:44:26.980
1326
01:44:28.085 --> 01:44:30.265
I mean, a lot of it is, like, waiting on the
1327
01:44:30.885 --> 01:44:32.345
1328
01:44:33.685 --> 01:44:35.699
it? A lot No worries.
1329
01:44:36.239 --> 01:44:38.179
While I was waiting on the lightning implementations,
1330
01:44:38.480 --> 01:44:42.260
actually, because all these lightning implementations have, like, super heavy assumptions
1331
01:44:42.925 --> 01:44:46.145
that everything that is in a lightning channel is an HTLC.
1332
01:44:47.245 --> 01:44:47.485
And,
1333
01:44:48.765 --> 01:44:53.720
you know, to switch it to PTLCs or even more so to switch it to be anything, it's gonna take a lot of
1334
01:44:54.100 --> 01:45:04.605
work. But, you know, it's it's coming, and, eventually, we'll we'll have it. But, you know, there's gonna be a lot of really good work input in by, you know, like, the Lightning Labs team and c lightning team and all those guys.
1335
01:45:05.705 --> 01:45:06.845
1336
01:45:07.969 --> 01:45:16.310
that are like, I'm just rolling my eyes. I'm glassy eyed. Like, they just keep saying DLCs over and over again. They're saying all these acronyms and shit. I don't understand.
1337
01:45:17.135 --> 01:45:19.074
Like, the cold hard truth is
1338
01:45:19.375 --> 01:45:21.875
gambling is a massive fucking industry.
1339
01:45:22.735 --> 01:45:24.195
The whole Shitcoin industry
1340
01:45:24.660 --> 01:45:26.120
sits on top of gambling.
1341
01:45:28.340 --> 01:45:32.600
Regardless of Bitcoin, separate from all the stuff we exist in,
1342
01:45:33.175 --> 01:45:35.275
gambling is already a massive industry.
1343
01:45:35.655 --> 01:45:36.155
DLCs
1344
01:45:36.535 --> 01:45:38.555
reduce that trust. It's gonna expand
1345
01:45:40.830 --> 01:45:43.330
the the ability for people to access gambling,
1346
01:45:43.950 --> 01:45:46.130
whether or not you agree with it morally.
1347
01:45:47.070 --> 01:46:00.510
It is going to allow more innovation. I mean, one of the things we talked about earlier was, you know, when you're at Guns and Bitcoin, you felt like the innovation was happening quicker than regulated companies, and that's what always happens. Right? If people are able to innovate on the fringes
1348
01:46:00.890 --> 01:46:02.430
without the friction of regulation,
1349
01:46:03.290 --> 01:46:20.340
you're gonna get cooler and cooler products. And this is kind of what this is going to do, I think, for gambling, whether that's I think I think the main thing is gonna be sports gambling. I think a big low hanging fruit is gonna be election gambling because in America, that's just straight up illegal, so you can't even have regulated companies offer that.
1350
01:46:21.520 --> 01:46:22.020
But
1351
01:46:22.445 --> 01:46:29.185
a lot of times, it gets pigeonholed into gambling, and what people don't realize is it's way bigger than that. And this is something that I fell in love with
1352
01:46:29.540 --> 01:46:31.000
as an early new corner,
1353
01:46:31.619 --> 01:46:34.920
that didn't know better, that thought Auger was gonna change the world,
1354
01:46:35.940 --> 01:46:41.045
is that this idea that if we can create a trust minimized scenario
1355
01:46:42.065 --> 01:46:43.365
where people can
1356
01:46:43.825 --> 01:46:47.365
essentially bet on what the weather is gonna be in in 3 days,
1357
01:46:48.600 --> 01:46:52.860
you are gonna start to get way more accurate predictions than we have today.
1358
01:46:53.240 --> 01:47:02.705
Because if you make an inaccurate prediction, you're gonna fucking lose money. And if you make an accurate prediction, you're gonna make money. And you compare that to, like, a weatherman's incentives currently,
1359
01:47:03.245 --> 01:47:05.985
and the weatherman's incentives currently are just like clickbait.
1360
01:47:06.540 --> 01:47:11.760
Right? But if the weather management centers are, like, tell you the weather as accurately as possible, it should be better.
1361
01:47:13.475 --> 01:47:18.455
1362
01:47:19.315 --> 01:47:24.370
who's gonna be the oracle, and, like, those entities can get, like, regulated versus, like, with this.
1363
01:47:24.750 --> 01:47:30.290
You know, they can't tell who's who's using who as an Oracle and, like, you know and Oracle has almost,
1364
01:47:30.745 --> 01:47:40.620
like, 0 infrastructure to run. It's very, very simple to do. So, you know, it could be some dude with, like, dial up Internet in Nigeria, and he can still be an oracle just at the same capacity
1365
01:47:41.000 --> 01:47:52.505
that Coinbase can. But, you know, if this guy is putting out, like, signatures on things that are happening that Coinbase isn't willing to, you can trade a market and provide value to people that, Coinbase otherwise couldn't.
1366
01:47:56.750 --> 01:47:59.970
So it, like, really pushes that permissionless nature.
1367
01:48:00.590 --> 01:48:11.005
1368
01:48:12.290 --> 01:48:16.230
Right? It's like, it's like my favorite one of my favorite fucking,
1369
01:48:17.730 --> 01:48:21.110
I don't know, fables. It's not even a fable. I don't even know. Learning
1370
01:48:21.795 --> 01:48:22.855
thing, case studies,
1371
01:48:23.235 --> 01:48:30.775
was growing up was, like, the Americans spent all this time trying to create, like, an a pen that worked in anti gravity, and the Russian just sent up a pencil.
1372
01:48:34.290 --> 01:48:35.330
1373
01:48:36.370 --> 01:48:41.425
we're just, like, kinda like, they tried to, like, you know, yeah, like I said, do this fancy thing where it's like, oh, let's just
1374
01:48:41.725 --> 01:48:45.665
do the simple thing of do it off chain and, just use multiple oracles.
1375
01:48:48.250 --> 01:48:49.630
1376
01:48:50.170 --> 01:48:53.935
1377
01:48:54.335 --> 01:49:00.595
fancy blockchain that, you know, has all these economic incentives in case the Oracle lies, and,
1378
01:49:01.030 --> 01:49:28.179
you know, I wanna strike them if they lie, but, you know, we have to then build the system where the richest guy might be able to change the actual outcome of what the oracle does. And, you know, it it it creates just, like, all these games versus, like, DLCs is, like, just have the user pick the oracles they trust. And, it's just, like, keep it simple, keep it stupid. Like, you know, use articles you want and, execute your contract however you want. Like, you don't need to build all these fancy systems that have blockchains and stuff.
1379
01:49:31.665 --> 01:49:32.165
1380
01:49:33.825 --> 01:49:36.565
So discrete log contracts. Do you think,
1381
01:49:37.170 --> 01:49:39.969
do should we talk about anything else in this subject? Or
1382
01:49:44.025 --> 01:49:44.605
1383
01:49:44.985 --> 01:49:55.320
so we should have a client out soon ish for people to actually try out. This American Huddl, Peter McCormick bet, like, put a fire on their ass to actually get something useful
1384
01:49:55.780 --> 01:49:56.840
for people to use.
1385
01:49:57.460 --> 01:50:05.485
So, I've like, I've been doing GUI work basically this entire week and, and then, like, cleaning up some stuff in the back end to make it more user friendly. So, hopefully,
1386
01:50:05.864 --> 01:50:14.390
like, sometime at, like, maybe we can get next month. We'll have something that people can actually download and use. So if you guys actually wanna use this stuff, it'll actually be actionable
1387
01:50:15.170 --> 01:50:16.775
if you wanna pay on chain fees.
1388
01:50:17.655 --> 01:50:26.475
1389
01:50:27.880 --> 01:50:38.675
us just talking about it over and over again. It's just, like, it's not accessible. Right? Like, at the end of the day, like, I was, like, so upset, and this is not against you guys. I mean, because I think you guys have actually been moving pretty fast.
1390
01:50:40.895 --> 01:50:44.435
But, like, there was no easy way to bet on the election
1391
01:50:45.080 --> 01:50:45.820
this cycle
1392
01:50:46.599 --> 01:50:47.340
with Bitcoin.
1393
01:50:47.880 --> 01:50:55.685
I mean, in, like, a trust minimized way. Right? And I just I feel like that should just have been a thing. Like, that should just have been a very low hanging fruit thing.
1394
01:50:57.425 --> 01:51:01.284
So, yeah. I mean, I'm looking forward to, like, more accessible options for people,
1395
01:51:02.340 --> 01:51:06.840
in terms of of that. And it's kinda funny coming from the guy who's talking about, you know,
1396
01:51:07.699 --> 01:51:10.760
being conservative and dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin.
1397
01:51:12.365 --> 01:51:13.825
1398
01:51:15.165 --> 01:51:19.265
1399
01:51:20.060 --> 01:51:26.160
what got me on Bitcoin was fucking Black Tuesday where they took out all the gambling sites by going for their funding methods.
1400
01:51:26.955 --> 01:51:27.775
And I was like,
1401
01:51:28.235 --> 01:51:32.575
fuck. Like, if this if this thing just does US gambling, it's worth something.
1402
01:51:33.755 --> 01:51:37.870
That value prop was immediately clear to me, and then I figured out the rest afterwards.
1403
01:51:38.410 --> 01:51:46.030
Just like a a fun little factoid, and, by the way, cheers to all the ride or dies that are still here with us live 2 hours in.
1404
01:51:46.715 --> 01:51:48.895
Like, this is where the fun part happens live,
1405
01:51:49.275 --> 01:51:54.494
so I appreciate you guys being here. Just a little factoid, I mean, this show was almost called the Discrete Log.
1406
01:51:55.140 --> 01:51:56.120
I own the domains.
1407
01:51:56.660 --> 01:51:57.160
So,
1408
01:51:58.820 --> 01:52:02.615
I thought that would have been a fun name, but it was a little bit too insular, so I didn't go with it.
1409
01:52:03.095 --> 01:52:11.860
That's a that's a good one name. It's clever. Right? But the problem is is, like, how do you spell discreet? Everyone spells it wrong with log. So do you spell it, like,
1410
01:52:12.239 --> 01:52:13.619
discreet as in discretion?
1411
01:52:14.159 --> 01:52:18.420
And I have both, and I didn't know which to do, so I just didn't do either.
1412
01:52:18.865 --> 01:52:20.805
And that's where that's where we stand.
1413
01:52:23.505 --> 01:52:24.005
So
1414
01:52:25.425 --> 01:52:27.350
great conversation so far, guys.
1415
01:52:28.150 --> 01:52:36.090
We have a freak in the chat, and the chat has run away from me, so I don't remember who it is. So I apologize to you, freak,
1416
01:52:37.655 --> 01:52:38.155
asking
1417
01:52:38.535 --> 01:52:41.675
about we're gonna go back to transaction fees because fuck it.
1418
01:52:43.175 --> 01:52:46.235
An empty block was mined while all these transaction fees
1419
01:52:46.690 --> 01:52:51.750
are just super expensive. Why did that happen? Why is that okay? Why shouldn't we be freaking out about it?
1420
01:52:55.545 --> 01:52:58.205
1421
01:52:58.824 --> 01:53:00.644
like, seconds after,
1422
01:53:01.385 --> 01:53:03.610
another block was previously mined.
1423
01:53:03.990 --> 01:53:05.770
And, generally, this is because, like, the,
1424
01:53:06.230 --> 01:53:08.010
like, the mining software hasn't
1425
01:53:08.710 --> 01:53:11.290
fully, like, caught up and found all the
1426
01:53:11.645 --> 01:53:13.665
transactions that was included in the block.
1427
01:53:14.045 --> 01:53:20.225
So it's it's still, like you know, it's gonna use those couple seconds to continue mining on an empty block just so it's not wasting,
1428
01:53:21.050 --> 01:53:31.855
time. So, like, generally, that's where they accidentally mine a or not accidentally, but they'll mine a, you know, an empty block just because they they have, like, a couple seconds to mine on an empty block, and they'd rather waste
1429
01:53:32.315 --> 01:53:39.170
1430
01:53:39.790 --> 01:53:45.155
1431
01:53:45.474 --> 01:53:50.534
1432
01:53:51.155 --> 01:53:53.014
You just kinda have to wait it out. Right?
1433
01:53:53.795 --> 01:53:54.695
1434
01:53:58.900 --> 01:53:59.400
1435
01:54:01.140 --> 01:54:05.255
I mean, we had another freak asking if he should buy today or he should wait till tomorrow.
1436
01:54:06.435 --> 01:54:07.415
Like, are we
1437
01:54:08.355 --> 01:54:11.475
how how do we how do we feel about that? Are we bullish on the price? I mean, I
1438
01:54:12.290 --> 01:54:17.510
if any freaks have been paying attention, I've been kind of outspoken. I'm extremely fucking bullish right now.
1439
01:54:20.985 --> 01:54:22.925
Am I am I
1440
01:54:24.665 --> 01:54:28.765
am I wrong in that? Or are you guys bullish? Are you guys feeling the FOMO?
1441
01:54:29.440 --> 01:54:37.219
1442
01:54:37.520 --> 01:54:40.785
you know, know, whatever makes most sense for you daily, weekly, monthly
1443
01:54:41.245 --> 01:54:42.705
as you get paid. I don't know.
1444
01:54:44.365 --> 01:54:46.860
But, yeah, Ben, where how high do you see this thing going by,
1445
01:54:48.940 --> 01:54:50.560
let's say, end of the year?
1446
01:54:51.580 --> 01:54:53.600
I love price prediction. I have
1447
01:54:54.025 --> 01:54:58.205
1448
01:54:59.304 --> 01:55:01.225
You know, it's I'm just betting a stake, but,
1449
01:55:01.945 --> 01:55:03.005
I think it happened.
1450
01:55:04.230 --> 01:55:08.010
1451
01:55:08.950 --> 01:55:09.910
1452
01:55:10.790 --> 01:55:12.650
1453
01:55:13.635 --> 01:55:20.135
given it it can still hit 500 k at the end of the cycle, which I think is gonna run into early next year. But I think
1454
01:55:20.940 --> 01:55:22.000
end of 2021,
1455
01:55:22.540 --> 01:55:24.320
the price is gonna be exactly
1456
01:55:26.460 --> 01:55:26.960
$420,000
1457
01:55:29.094 --> 01:55:29.594
609
1458
01:55:30.135 --> 01:55:31.915
no. 6 wait. Wait. $420,696.15.
1459
01:55:36.054 --> 01:55:36.955
That's my prediction.
1460
01:55:37.270 --> 01:55:38.489
Wait. What was it?
1461
01:55:39.190 --> 01:55:39.690
$420,696.15.
1462
01:55:44.630 --> 01:55:46.409
1463
01:55:46.885 --> 01:55:47.625
1464
01:55:48.245 --> 01:55:49.705
1465
01:55:51.125 --> 01:55:53.305
1466
01:55:54.270 --> 01:56:02.130
1467
01:56:02.805 --> 01:56:03.385
1468
01:56:03.765 --> 01:56:12.480
that's the ballpark for what I'm aiming for. I mean, we've got the crazy year. We've got all the momentum behind us. Is that part in the cycle?
1469
01:56:13.020 --> 01:56:18.880
And then you got all this crap going on macro wise, like, who how much money has been printed
1470
01:56:19.180 --> 01:56:34.550
1471
01:56:34.930 --> 01:56:36.790
And I think in, like, a bull market,
1472
01:56:37.145 --> 01:56:38.445
we're getting inundated
1473
01:56:38.985 --> 01:56:40.844
by so much fucking noise,
1474
01:56:42.344 --> 01:56:46.685
from mostly shit corners, but also from, like, some, you know, charlatan Bitcoiners,
1475
01:56:47.930 --> 01:56:50.430
that I think it's imperative on us
1476
01:56:50.890 --> 01:56:51.630
that we
1477
01:56:52.570 --> 01:56:54.510
that we bring our price predictions
1478
01:56:55.165 --> 01:57:00.304
to the fold to just show the kind of urgency. Like, I feel like there's urgency here. I think
1479
01:57:01.005 --> 01:57:01.985
I think there's,
1480
01:57:03.179 --> 01:57:16.135
like, I'm watching all of these things unfold, and we're about to hit billionaire FOMO. We're about to hit corporate FOMO. We're about to hit government FOMO. Right? And, like, I would like the plebs to have as much as possible, and I don't wanna say told you so
1481
01:57:16.835 --> 01:57:17.895
at fucking $700,000,
1482
01:57:18.800 --> 01:57:19.300
$800,000.
1483
01:57:19.680 --> 01:57:28.660
I don't wanna say told you so at that point. Like, that's not satisfying to me. I would like them to get in now, and I just wanna shut the fuck up when we hit that those prices. Right?
1484
01:57:29.825 --> 01:57:34.305
1485
01:57:34.785 --> 01:57:45.130
you don't like, you stack, like, you know, maybe your actual prediction is a 100 k by end of year and, you know, maybe you won't stack as much by then. You know? Give out the most bullish number because, you know, it's going to infinity
1486
01:57:45.844 --> 01:57:54.025
1487
01:57:55.110 --> 01:57:56.730
probably longer. So
1488
01:57:57.110 --> 01:58:03.850
whatever you're doing short term shouldn't really matter as much. So just, you know, accumulate as much as you can responsibly,
1489
01:58:05.615 --> 01:58:06.755
as quickly as possible.
1490
01:58:08.335 --> 01:58:08.835
1491
01:58:10.495 --> 01:58:15.350
100% cosign that one. I'll tell you, I do have I did not stack hard enough.
1492
01:58:17.010 --> 01:58:17.910
I I
1493
01:58:18.370 --> 01:58:21.830
I should have stacked harder. The the timeline was shorter than I realized,
1494
01:58:24.295 --> 01:58:26.155
and this is coming from a perm bull.
1495
01:58:26.855 --> 01:58:27.355
So,
1496
01:58:29.735 --> 01:58:39.280
it is what it is. Keep stacking. I'm just fucking stacking as hard as possible right now, and I do really I really do think, like, it's just I mean, if if you just
1497
01:58:39.585 --> 01:58:43.205
if you think that things can't change quickly in a major way,
1498
01:58:43.985 --> 01:58:46.165
where the fuck were you for the last year?
1499
01:58:47.159 --> 01:58:49.739
Like, fucking, our whole world changed on us,
1500
01:58:51.080 --> 01:58:57.325
and it happened very fucking quickly, gradually then suddenly, right, as our as our boy, Parker says.
1501
01:58:58.905 --> 01:59:05.485
So, I mean, before we end this this this great discussion, I mean, I really wanna talk about privacy in a high fee environment.
1502
01:59:09.050 --> 01:59:10.350
You know, I've been
1503
01:59:11.450 --> 01:59:16.035
a big advocate of of Bitcoin users taking back their privacy.
1504
01:59:19.055 --> 01:59:28.059
One thing that I haven't heard yet from the compliance pros, but they really dropped the ball on this. And I'm only mentioning it now because we're 2 hours in, so you know they didn't make it this far.
1505
01:59:29.965 --> 01:59:30.465
1506
01:59:31.165 --> 01:59:35.585
1507
01:59:36.285 --> 01:59:37.905
Right? High fees,
1508
01:59:38.470 --> 01:59:39.930
BlockFi users unaffected.
1509
01:59:40.230 --> 01:59:41.530
They still get their 6%.
1510
01:59:43.110 --> 01:59:43.610
So
1511
01:59:45.190 --> 01:59:49.305
where where do we stand in terms of if this is
1512
01:59:49.685 --> 01:59:55.385
if this is the new normal, if the new normal is over 50 sats per byte for the next year and a half,
1513
01:59:57.740 --> 02:00:00.080
which I think is, like, a relatively conservative
1514
02:00:00.780 --> 02:00:05.905
ish estimate, 50 sats per byte. People would die for 50 Sats per byte right now.
1515
02:00:06.445 --> 02:00:09.025
Where do we see privacy in that kind of environment?
1516
02:00:11.620 --> 02:00:20.615
1517
02:00:21.815 --> 02:00:26.635
so I know it like, you know, joint market sucks now. There's, like, nowhere to generate fees.
1518
02:00:27.120 --> 02:00:27.600
And,
1519
02:00:28.080 --> 02:00:31.780
I'm looking at Wasabi right now. There's 20 registered peers for the next,
1520
02:00:33.200 --> 02:00:39.644
next coin join. So it's like, you know, all these coin join stuff, like, you know, it it's really taken a hit with all the, the
1521
02:00:40.065 --> 02:00:41.545
It's expensive and spot.
1522
02:00:42.645 --> 02:00:44.505
Yeah. And, like, I mean, the
1523
02:00:44.885 --> 02:00:45.945
the, the
1524
02:00:46.480 --> 02:00:51.060
coordinator fees are already expensive. And now this is, you know, just adding on in the, you know
1525
02:00:52.160 --> 02:00:54.980
I I hope we figure out other ways to
1526
02:00:55.575 --> 02:00:59.035
to do Bitcoin privately in a more efficient way, but, yeah,
1527
02:00:59.735 --> 02:01:01.275
it kinda sucks right now.
1528
02:01:04.220 --> 02:01:05.920
1529
02:01:06.460 --> 02:01:07.520
these sort of things.
1530
02:01:08.460 --> 02:01:14.965
I don't really know what the solution is gonna be long term. Is people do are people just gonna mix during the bare
1531
02:01:15.665 --> 02:01:16.405
fee cycles
1532
02:01:17.185 --> 02:01:23.950
or whatnot? It seems like part of the solution will be some of these privacy tools being developed on 2nd layers.
1533
02:01:25.210 --> 02:01:25.790
You know,
1534
02:01:26.810 --> 02:01:31.575
Lightning already has some properties to make it more private than on chain, at least.
1535
02:01:31.955 --> 02:01:33.715
How do we take that to the next level?
1536
02:01:34.995 --> 02:01:39.250
Then, you know, Matt, I think you were sort of alluding to this on Twitter. Like,
1537
02:01:39.790 --> 02:01:43.810
what if some sort of coin join comes to l two on liquid,
1538
02:01:44.175 --> 02:01:45.635
and what does that look like?
1539
02:01:46.255 --> 02:01:49.695
That would be interesting too, but you also need to be,
1540
02:01:50.095 --> 02:02:00.239
cautious of, the peg ins and peg outs both on lightning and on liquid as data can be revealed there. So it's not really a super straightforward thing
1541
02:02:00.780 --> 02:02:02.715
unless you're at least on those layers.
1542
02:02:03.175 --> 02:02:05.435
1543
02:02:07.574 --> 02:02:14.410
1544
02:02:15.110 --> 02:02:16.650
1545
02:02:16.950 --> 02:02:23.655
pay join, like, really shine in these moments where, like, you know, it's like, I'm already making a payment to, like, this PTC pay server,
1546
02:02:23.955 --> 02:02:29.820
but now I'm just doing it in a private way where, you know, we're mixing funds and, like, hiding the amount we're actually sending.
1547
02:02:31.160 --> 02:02:36.540
So, like, things like that, like, you know, you're already been making a transaction. You're not, like, doing actual transactions to add privacy.
1548
02:02:36.885 --> 02:02:50.000
So, like, stuff like that aids in a lot where, you know, you're you're gonna do a transaction in any way, so we may as well add some privacy to it. So, hopefully, those certainly implemented more, like or just invented where we have, like, ways to do,
1549
02:02:50.619 --> 02:02:56.864
like, private transactions. We're doing a transaction anyways instead of, like, having to do extra transactions to add privacy to your stack.
1550
02:02:58.605 --> 02:02:59.745
1551
02:03:00.925 --> 02:03:05.870
yeah. But but pay join is is you're just making you're you're making your regular transaction anyway,
1552
02:03:06.970 --> 02:03:11.470
and you break a heuristic. But with CoinJoin, you're you're already making extra transactions.
1553
02:03:12.204 --> 02:03:13.905
I just I just feel like
1554
02:03:17.324 --> 02:03:17.824
I
1555
02:03:19.260 --> 02:03:22.400
like, right now, I'm not making any on chain transactions, period.
1556
02:03:23.180 --> 02:03:24.480
I just won't do it.
1557
02:03:25.180 --> 02:03:36.225
I'm gonna I'm waiting and seeing. But maybe I get my hand forced if the fee environment continues. Right? So maybe that maybe that dynamic changes. Maybe this is because it's, like, a sudden type of thing.
1558
02:03:37.390 --> 02:03:39.730
I do think lightning will help a lot.
1559
02:03:40.670 --> 02:03:41.170
To
1560
02:03:41.470 --> 02:03:42.770
to Evan's point,
1561
02:03:43.605 --> 02:03:46.025
I really feel like what we need is,
1562
02:03:48.965 --> 02:03:51.145
and and this is why I mentioned it with Liquid,
1563
02:03:52.020 --> 02:03:53.640
is, first of all, with Liquid,
1564
02:03:54.340 --> 02:04:03.114
you know, you you have worse trust assumptions. Right? Like, you're trusting the federation to a degree, and I and we should let's dive into Liquid a little bit. You're trusting the federation to a degree.
1565
02:04:04.295 --> 02:04:08.315
It's almost like a quasi custodial, but it's custodial in a multisig environment.
1566
02:04:08.989 --> 02:04:16.910
There's some questions there about when it drops down to a 2 of 3 that's just controlled by Blockstream, where then it's just custodial in a regular environment. Mhmm.
1567
02:04:17.870 --> 02:04:18.370
But
1568
02:04:19.135 --> 02:04:25.474
the on chain fee burden is is way easier to conceptualize than a Lightning situation. Because with Lightning,
1569
02:04:25.990 --> 02:04:38.975
you have all these channels, you're managing these different channels, and you don't know if they're gonna close on you or not. Right? And this is what we talked about earlier with 6102, right, where there's some level of trust. Does that channel partner close on you in the worst possible fucking time?
1570
02:04:41.275 --> 02:04:47.810
The with with Liquid, it's like you only pay that on chain fee when you swap back, and you pick when you swap back.
1571
02:04:48.989 --> 02:04:49.489
So
1572
02:04:50.645 --> 02:04:52.345
my biggest concern is
1573
02:04:53.125 --> 02:04:55.065
users that have large amounts
1574
02:04:55.445 --> 02:04:55.945
of
1575
02:04:56.325 --> 02:04:57.145
of UTXOs,
1576
02:04:57.810 --> 02:05:04.710
right, that that need consolidating in a relatively private way. And that's not a very ease it's not an easy thing to do.
1577
02:05:06.395 --> 02:05:08.815
There's there's no real easy way to do that.
1578
02:05:09.355 --> 02:05:13.775
Some people will claim that Wabi Sabi, the upcoming Wasabi 2.0, will
1579
02:05:14.080 --> 02:05:18.980
will solve that use case. I'll believe it when I see it. I commend them for working on it.
1580
02:05:21.475 --> 02:05:25.175
But in my mind, like, if they you had some kind of client that just
1581
02:05:26.114 --> 02:05:26.614
randomly
1582
02:05:26.915 --> 02:05:31.300
pegged into liquid and then shuffled forever until you stopped it,
1583
02:05:32.500 --> 02:05:39.695
could kind of end up in a situation where you're able to but is that, like, just too complicated? Is that just too difficult? Is is that just
1584
02:05:40.815 --> 02:05:41.635
I don't know.
1585
02:05:42.175 --> 02:05:43.635
What are your guys thoughts in here?
1586
02:05:47.190 --> 02:05:50.969
1587
02:05:51.510 --> 02:05:55.130
none of the stuff is implemented, so it's gonna be a while before it actually comes out.
1588
02:05:55.590 --> 02:05:56.070
And,
1589
02:05:56.775 --> 02:05:59.915
yeah. I mean, like, being able to, like, use liquid to mix
1590
02:06:00.534 --> 02:06:02.954
would be, like, awesome. But also, it's like,
1591
02:06:03.255 --> 02:06:08.670
you know, how many people are actually using liquid? You know, if you're the one guy that's mix on liquid, you're not really getting privacy.
1592
02:06:09.290 --> 02:06:10.030
So you
1593
02:06:10.810 --> 02:06:15.790
you need, like, to, like, build up, you know, another, and then reset over, you know, over there. And
1594
02:06:17.215 --> 02:06:20.435
so, yeah, I think it would be awesome if we actually implement all this stuff. But,
1595
02:06:21.455 --> 02:06:23.955
you know, there's not really a lot of incentives
1596
02:06:24.415 --> 02:06:24.915
to
1597
02:06:25.980 --> 02:06:30.640
to do it yet just because, like, no one really uses liquid, so you're not there's no crowd to hide among.
1598
02:06:31.179 --> 02:06:37.925
But, you know, if a bunch of exchanges start implementing liquid to save on fees, which, you know, they might actually do right now with all this,
1599
02:06:38.945 --> 02:06:41.925
you know, stuff going on, maybe they will, but, you know,
1600
02:06:42.625 --> 02:06:43.605
hopefully soon.
1601
02:06:45.330 --> 02:06:47.830
1602
02:06:49.170 --> 02:06:53.735
1603
02:06:54.115 --> 02:06:54.775
1604
02:06:55.155 --> 02:06:56.855
1605
02:06:57.155 --> 02:07:02.250
1606
02:07:02.630 --> 02:07:06.410
byte. So, like, if this fee bump doesn't do it, what fucking does it?
1607
02:07:09.405 --> 02:07:13.645
I mean, we'll see. I mean, not we don't have that many exchanges supporting it. I'm not trying to, like
1608
02:07:14.740 --> 02:07:19.800
guys, I I'm a fucking hyperbole. Like, I think, like, Bitcoin pumps like fucking crazy.
1609
02:07:20.260 --> 02:07:21.000
I just,
1610
02:07:23.454 --> 02:07:32.580
you know, as as a as a sovereign user, I just wonder how that affects me and how we how we work from here, right, like, in this kind of environment. That's all.
1611
02:07:38.880 --> 02:07:39.380
Well,
1612
02:07:40.735 --> 02:07:41.875
I love you both.
1613
02:07:45.455 --> 02:07:53.830
I mean, do you do either of you guys I don't wanna extend this longer than it than it needs to be extended. I mean, I think this has been a great conversation. Do either of you guys have, you know,
1614
02:07:54.610 --> 02:07:57.585
any last things you wanna talk about before we wrap this thing up?
1615
02:07:59.185 --> 02:08:04.305
1616
02:08:04.705 --> 02:08:06.725
we're not gonna ossify after Taproot,
1617
02:08:07.110 --> 02:08:08.329
and I think we might.
1618
02:08:09.110 --> 02:08:14.409
1619
02:08:15.829 --> 02:08:16.570
do we
1620
02:08:17.215 --> 02:08:17.875
do we
1621
02:08:19.855 --> 02:08:23.074
if is Bitcoin gonna ossify after Taproot?
1622
02:08:23.534 --> 02:08:24.594
Is that okay?
1623
02:08:24.895 --> 02:08:25.715
Do we want
1624
02:08:26.160 --> 02:08:26.900
more development?
1625
02:08:27.440 --> 02:08:30.739
Is this Bitcoin gonna survive? Let's talk about this. Okay. So
1626
02:08:31.120 --> 02:08:32.100
1627
02:08:32.719 --> 02:08:33.540
has Dogecoin
1628
02:08:34.735 --> 02:08:40.835
really ossified? I mean, as it stands right now, there's no activities. Probably hasn't gone to upgrades since, what, 2014
1629
02:08:41.775 --> 02:08:42.680
or something, 2016?
1630
02:08:43.240 --> 02:08:49.340
1631
02:08:49.880 --> 02:08:51.420
1632
02:08:51.915 --> 02:08:52.635
more institutions
1633
02:08:53.114 --> 02:08:54.335
Right. Or whatever,
1634
02:08:54.954 --> 02:08:57.855
more basketball teams are using it for merge. Like,
1635
02:08:58.715 --> 02:09:05.680
is there anything really stopping the developers from getting it rolling again and adding SegWid and adding Taproot, etcetera, etcetera?
1636
02:09:06.860 --> 02:09:18.265
1637
02:09:18.620 --> 02:09:22.800
1638
02:09:23.420 --> 02:09:25.360
And, man, you can't even do it
1639
02:09:25.795 --> 02:09:29.175
practically without using, like, a torrent that gets you
1640
02:09:29.635 --> 02:09:43.855
1641
02:09:44.395 --> 02:09:46.015
that. But I you know,
1642
02:09:46.395 --> 02:09:47.855
we can continue on the ossification.
1643
02:09:48.510 --> 02:09:53.330
1644
02:09:55.630 --> 02:09:56.130
1645
02:09:56.915 --> 02:09:58.215
So let's talk about ossification.
1646
02:10:00.275 --> 02:10:03.975
1647
02:10:05.310 --> 02:10:06.290
1648
02:10:06.750 --> 02:10:14.290
Well, let's well, for the freaks real quick, ossification is when nothing changes. We're done. The the protocol's done. We're good. Never change again.
1649
02:10:15.695 --> 02:10:17.295
Hit it, Ben. Yeah.
1650
02:10:17.935 --> 02:10:18.575
1651
02:10:18.895 --> 02:10:21.235
we definitely want Taproot. We definitely want,
1652
02:10:22.415 --> 02:10:23.635
Sigash, AnyProvout.
1653
02:10:24.400 --> 02:10:30.340
Yes. So let us do fancy things like l 2 and make lightning a lot better. Hell, yes. We want we want,
1654
02:10:33.255 --> 02:10:34.235
aggregate signatures
1655
02:10:35.015 --> 02:10:38.555
so we can have coin joins be cheaper than regular transactions.
1656
02:10:41.910 --> 02:10:47.930
I'll check template verify would be cool. I don't think that's a must have, but it would make things like vaults
1657
02:10:48.390 --> 02:10:49.690
a lot easier to do.
1658
02:10:51.015 --> 02:10:53.915
Otherwise, I don't know. I think, like, just getting,
1659
02:10:54.775 --> 02:10:56.395
signature aggregation and
1660
02:10:57.600 --> 02:10:59.380
any prevail would be monumentous.
1661
02:11:01.840 --> 02:11:06.260
1662
02:11:06.625 --> 02:11:06.864
And,
1663
02:11:08.304 --> 02:11:14.324
if it does come to fruition and we have a good solution for it that people agree on, do you think there will be pushback
1664
02:11:14.710 --> 02:11:18.469
from any major institutions because of the privacy enhancements it,
1665
02:11:19.110 --> 02:11:19.929
sort of enables?
1666
02:11:21.110 --> 02:11:27.614
1667
02:11:29.195 --> 02:11:32.975
I don't know. I get it would add privacy enhancements. It's also you could just say, like,
1668
02:11:33.360 --> 02:11:34.020
it makes
1669
02:11:34.640 --> 02:11:38.100
transactions cheaper. Like, that's why we're doing it. You know? Like,
1670
02:11:38.480 --> 02:11:43.025
it's really not like making transactions more private. It's just changing the incentives to do
1671
02:11:43.585 --> 02:11:44.485
larger transact
1672
02:11:44.945 --> 02:11:48.485
yeah. It's like to do larger transactions which, you know, coin joints are.
1673
02:11:49.105 --> 02:11:49.605
So,
1674
02:11:50.465 --> 02:11:51.605
I don't know. I mean,
1675
02:11:52.290 --> 02:11:58.070
and even if they do wanna try and stop it, like, you know, they tried that with Segway and didn't do too well. So,
1676
02:11:58.450 --> 02:11:59.590
you know, good luck.
1677
02:12:01.135 --> 02:12:03.475
1678
02:12:03.855 --> 02:12:07.955
from camps that are, like, saying, okay. Bitcoin's been taken over by corporations,
1679
02:12:08.335 --> 02:12:12.540
and because of this real privacy enhancements cannot come to the train.
1680
02:12:13.080 --> 02:12:15.340
And, I think that's a complete fiction.
1681
02:12:15.935 --> 02:12:18.995
And I think that we're seeing this play out with Taproot, and I think
1682
02:12:19.855 --> 02:12:22.255
something similar can play out with,
1683
02:12:22.735 --> 02:12:24.355
cross input signature aggregation.
1684
02:12:25.910 --> 02:12:30.730
And, I think once we get those two things in, you know, we're talking about a whole different ballgame.
1685
02:12:32.230 --> 02:12:35.050
You know, why why wouldn't you come and join us? It's gonna be cheaper.
1686
02:12:37.465 --> 02:12:43.890
1687
02:12:44.290 --> 02:12:54.435
you know, everyone agrees, like or, like basically, like, 99.99% of people are, like, down with Taproot and want it. It's just the activation method that people are, like, arguing over.
1688
02:12:55.695 --> 02:12:56.594
So it's like,
1689
02:12:57.054 --> 02:12:57.955
do we have
1690
02:12:58.335 --> 02:13:01.074
ossification just because of activation methods, or
1691
02:13:01.480 --> 02:13:06.699
are we are we gonna are we, like, you know, maybe and actually doing, like, say, cache ID prove out and, like,
1692
02:13:07.239 --> 02:13:13.795
are we gonna you know, we'll still figure it out just because everyone wants this thing and the activation method, you know, isn't
1693
02:13:14.175 --> 02:13:18.330
a permanent change to the protocol. It's just, like, you know, while we're signaling for activation.
1694
02:13:19.270 --> 02:13:24.969
So I think, like, we still could, you know, move on from this, but I think you're saying otherwise, at least, at the bar.
1695
02:13:29.054 --> 02:13:30.755
1696
02:13:32.895 --> 02:13:35.074
we've sort of proven that
1697
02:13:35.840 --> 02:13:40.739
this is a blockchain for the people and, you know, the people who use it.
1698
02:13:44.204 --> 02:13:45.105
Yeah. I mean,
1699
02:13:46.045 --> 02:13:52.704
big features like that, there's I think there's always gonna be enough people fighting for and and championing and and trying to figure out.
1700
02:13:54.170 --> 02:13:56.030
It's it's gonna be with, like,
1701
02:13:57.210 --> 02:14:03.035
more minute upgrades that see more pushback. It's like, okay. Do we really need this, or are the gains really,
1702
02:14:04.215 --> 02:14:09.275
that much of a difference maker? And and I don't think you'd say the same about Taproot or
1703
02:14:10.310 --> 02:14:13.130
signature aggregation. I I think those are are really
1704
02:14:14.790 --> 02:14:17.930
game changers for lack of a different phrase.
1705
02:14:21.515 --> 02:14:22.255
1706
02:14:24.475 --> 02:14:25.615
is is ossification
1707
02:14:25.995 --> 02:14:29.100
even possible for something that is actually used?
1708
02:14:33.420 --> 02:14:36.560
1709
02:14:37.365 --> 02:14:42.345
can be something where, okay, the upgrades or changes, they really slow down. But
1710
02:14:43.045 --> 02:14:44.825
if someone comes along
1711
02:14:45.445 --> 02:14:46.345
with a,
1712
02:14:47.430 --> 02:14:52.810
you know, great upgrade or or a great discovery in terms of cryptography or whatnot,
1713
02:14:53.190 --> 02:15:00.095
people are gonna still want that to go in as long as, like you said, people are using it. And it's not a ghost fucking train like Dogecoin is.
1714
02:15:00.475 --> 02:15:03.055
1715
02:15:04.795 --> 02:15:06.655
my my basis of
1716
02:15:07.000 --> 02:15:13.179
of my so called Bitcoin maximalism. Right? So so where does my conviction come from that I
1717
02:15:15.074 --> 02:15:16.534
am so bullish on Bitcoin?
1718
02:15:17.155 --> 02:15:18.695
A lot of it comes from
1719
02:15:20.675 --> 02:15:22.695
the Bitcoin Cash War,
1720
02:15:23.250 --> 02:15:25.429
Segway 2x war of 2017.
1721
02:15:25.969 --> 02:15:26.469
Right?
1722
02:15:27.010 --> 02:15:27.510
And
1723
02:15:28.130 --> 02:15:32.949
I feel like a lot of people took the wrong thing away from it because it was such a crappy fork.
1724
02:15:34.995 --> 02:15:39.415
You know, both Segwit two x, you know, run by Garzik, off by one error,
1725
02:15:39.795 --> 02:15:47.889
you know, and and Bitcoin Cash, you know, you had the the Bitmain guys and Raja Vere funding it. Like, you didn't have any really quality
1726
02:15:48.350 --> 02:15:50.610
developers involved in those projects.
1727
02:15:52.785 --> 02:15:54.324
In a worst case scenario
1728
02:15:55.425 --> 02:15:55.925
where,
1729
02:15:57.025 --> 02:15:58.965
let's say, the shit corners were
1730
02:15:59.400 --> 02:16:04.300
close to being right. Right? And you have a chain or some kind of new technology
1731
02:16:05.960 --> 02:16:06.940
that is,
1732
02:16:09.545 --> 02:16:12.764
just a way better money than Bitcoin. Right? Mhmm.
1733
02:16:13.704 --> 02:16:15.485
A hard fork to Bitcoin
1734
02:16:16.950 --> 02:16:17.450
that
1735
02:16:18.150 --> 02:16:19.370
adds that benefit
1736
02:16:19.670 --> 02:16:22.650
and keeps the current ledger at the tip,
1737
02:16:23.965 --> 02:16:27.025
I think, would have more value than that competing
1738
02:16:27.485 --> 02:16:27.985
ledger
1739
02:16:28.605 --> 02:16:34.770
because I think the Bitcoin ledger itself I think the actual UTXO set at, like, consensus tip
1740
02:16:36.030 --> 02:16:38.610
has a tremendous amount of value that is undercounted.
1741
02:16:40.110 --> 02:16:41.570
What are your thoughts on that?
1742
02:16:43.035 --> 02:16:52.480
1743
02:16:52.860 --> 02:17:01.360
I mean, this is kind of a bad example, but, like, BCash Tech, you know, had the same starting UTXO set, but, like, no one valued that. So, like But it was a piece of shit.
1744
02:17:02.295 --> 02:17:03.115
Yeah. But,
1745
02:17:04.375 --> 02:17:08.075
like, Bitcoin has to be, like, actually failed for us to, like, switch over,
1746
02:17:08.535 --> 02:17:14.100
and I don't really see how that happened. Like, at the end, you could just soft fork a fix to almost anything.
1747
02:17:15.680 --> 02:17:17.140
1748
02:17:17.840 --> 02:17:19.140
that hard fork mechanism,
1749
02:17:19.440 --> 02:17:20.955
especially if you stay on
1750
02:17:21.415 --> 02:17:22.875
the the same algo.
1751
02:17:23.335 --> 02:17:23.835
Right?
1752
02:17:26.375 --> 02:17:29.354
It's a very it's like a it's an a very interesting
1753
02:17:30.381 --> 02:17:32.000
free market upgrade mechanism.
1754
02:17:34.381 --> 02:17:41.415
Yeah. I mean, you're not wrong. I just think And I I wonder if we're I wonder if we're blinded by the fact that
1755
02:17:41.875 --> 02:17:43.975
the previous attempts have just been so shitty.
1756
02:17:44.435 --> 02:17:54.220
Right? Like, we've had, like, Bitcoin Gold and, like, Bitcoin Cash and, like, Bitcoin Diamond. Like, they're all garbage. They all have some elements of, like, premines and airdrops and fucking
1757
02:17:54.775 --> 02:17:56.955
Yeah. No one's no one's fucked up difficulties
1758
02:17:57.415 --> 02:17:59.516
that, like, basically created premines.
1759
02:18:02.750 --> 02:18:06.510