Why Kraft Heinz's $20 Billion Breakup Could Save the Food Giant | Fast Five Shorts

Kraft Heinz is preparing to break itself up a decade after an infamous merger of the two biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Kraft Heinz is planning to spin off a large chunk of its grocery business, including many craft products, into a new entity that could be valued as much as $20 billion on its own, according to people familiar with the matter.

That would leave a company housing goods such as sauces and spreads like Heinz namesake ketchup and Dijon mustard brand Gray Poupon.

The company has given priority to its faster going offerings like hot sauces, dressings and condiments, which are more in line with consumer preferences than processed lunch meats and cheeses.

It hopes the two separate units could be in total more than KRAFT Heinz, roughly $31 billion market value currently.

Chad, what is your assessment of the Kraft Heinz breakup and what is the potential, potential value creation given as the rationale?

So first of all, it's a pretty big week for food M and A overall.

I believe this was just a day after Ferrero announced the deal to buy Kellogg serial division.

Right.

Listen, in this case, the, the massive devaluation that's occurred since the Kraft Heinz merger is, is stuff of legend, right?

So am I surprised to see this, like, especially in this current era of pretty massive portfolio shaping and reshaping across food and Bev cpg?

No, not at all.

Your question is, will it work?

Right, Right.

You know, listen, the theory of M and A is painfully simple when you break it down.

Even though it's kind of painful to make work, you need to make the move that adds value.

And so the numbers that are being stated out in the article are, wow, we break it up, it's worth more than it is together.

How does that work?

Right.

So you know it's the inverse of, of an acquisition deal, right.

If you're acquiring, you're betting on being able to disproportionately grow something more faster than it otherwise could or grow the same at a higher profit margin.

Otherwise you're paying for it in the purchase price.

That's what Ferrero is banking on.

By taking those slower moving cereal brands from kellogg.

That's what J.M.

smucker bet on with Hostess, you know, countless examples.

If you're divesting and breaking things apart, you're getting rid of the boat anchors that others could do better than you.

Right?

In this market, growth is hard.

Folks have negative comps.

So you're seeing this a lot.

It's shrink to grow.

Right.

Could someone else do better with Oscar Meyer and Lunchables and Mac and Cheese?

When, when these brands aren't succeeding at Kraft Heinz, I think know what?

Probably right.

The large conglomerate CPGs, you know, they take off their pants one leg at a time like the rest of us.

They have to allocate resources like anyone else.

So, you know, these brands, they fall out of favor, kind of a death spiral internally.

So someone who can take them, make them higher priority, take the brand equity, invest in marketing, invest in innovation.

It's been shown numerous times that it works and that, and that's what they're banking on here, which does make sense if there's a willing party, which is always the other side of it.

But you know, the breakup, I mean, it's just a couple of years ago in terms of what Kellogg did, you know, into Kelanova and Kellogg and now that's selling off to Ferrero, who's going to try to put it on speed.

You know, it's, it's, it's, it's a ten year journey here.

That, that reached kind of an inevitable conclusion and we'll see where it goes from here.

Yeah.

Chad, how much do you think like regulation is going to impact?

You know, in the past you had these mergers and acquisitions or divestitures happening.

Do you think that there's less opportunity now because of the requirements to change ingredients or remove artificial flavorings and that kind of stuff in this kind of category that will impact that?

I don't know that it has an impact specifically on a, on a deal like this.

I mean, listen, okay, food industry is on watch right now, right?

It comes to that.

Right.

And you know, that's just becoming, you know, at this point, some degree of table stakes of how the industry needs to react going forward.

I'm not sure that individual, especially brands in this kind of catalog that, that ultimately is going to be a deterrent or an accelerator on M and A activity.

And David Brown, where do you see the opportunity here from this?

You know, as somebody who's worked in professional services for a long time, if, if Kraft Heinz is coming to, they're, they're the separate companies now.

What are some of the key things that you think could be, or actions that could be taken right now to help the success of the future?

I agree with a lot of what Chad said and I think there's a couple other angles.

One, I think what we're seeing now is the dismantling or the, the proof point that a lot of the 3G work just really didn't work.

Right.

That, you know, all of these billions of dollars of cost synergies that were supposed to happen really haven't worked because of either the complexity of the organizations or as Chad said, the resource allocation, et cetera, et cetera.

So I think the opportunities as you split these apart is really going to be to be laser focused on what matters for the consumer.

So you pick a strategy and then you ruthlessly execute against it.

It's really hard to pick, you know, six different strategies within an organization and execute it against it effectively because it just doesn't work.

Right.

So I think that's what we're seeing more than anything here.

And as you kind of divest and be able to get more focused, I think the other interesting thing that I haven't seen in any of the press on any of these deals yet is as they go to either get sold to foreign entities or foreign entities are, are looking at them, the regulations do matter, Right.

You know, there's a lot more ingredients that are limited outside of the U.S. than inside the U.S. that's a whole different debate that, that we could have.

But also the, you know, the ongoing tariff situation and like, if you start moving, you know, kind of manufacturing plants or, you know, now you're re importing cereal or Mac and cheese or whatever it is, you could be talking about drastically different price points.

Right.

So how that plays out on the valuations.

Right.

And Kraft Heinz has had this innovation center focused on product design and development for 75 years or something now too, but likely focused on the US Market and what they're doing here, not what those regulations are probably going to be.

When you're looking at overseas buyers.

Chris Walton, round us out here.

What else would you add to what David and Chad had to say?

Yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't think I'd add much, but I do have an analogy that I use to think about these things.

You know, I think of it like, you know, whenever it was what, what, what they say was 15 years ago that this, this merger happened.

You know, to me it's just like, you know, it's like a marriage and the marriage didn't work out and they need to separate and they, they're not as sexy, they're not as good looking, they're not as happy as they were when they were apart from each other.

And so now they've got to separate and potentially get back into the gym and start working out and finding the happiness in life and potentially there's another acquirer down the road.

And maybe to David's point, that Acquirer is an international company that is farther ahead on understanding the different puts and takes with, you know, refining product formulations and all that.

So that that's how I look at this.

It's just, you know, the natural progression that that happens for a lot of folks in many aspects of life.

Except for you, Chris, who's gotten sexier over time.

Oh, thank you.

Thank you everywhere on this podcast, Chad.

Thank you, thank you.