Why Smart People Believe Wrong Things

Wayne Sutton: Some of the smartest people I've ever met believe some of the most absolutely ridiculous things. And before you start thinking about somebody else, I'm talking about you. I'm talking about me. Because here's one of the strangest things about human intelligence. In fact, sometimes being intelligent gives you something even more dangerous: the ability to construct a really sophisticated argument for something you want to believe, even if it's not true. Think about it. We like to imagine that our beliefs work like this. Evidence comes in. We examine the evidence. We reach a rational conclusion. But you know what? That's that's not often what happens. Sometimes it works more like we reached a conclusion emotionally, and then we send out our intelligence out looking for like evidence. Okay. Today we're gonna talk about why. We're going inside cognitive bias, tribal thinking. Confirmation bias, authority, social proof, and one of the hardest sentences for any human being to say, I was wrong. And by the end of this episode, I'm going to give you five questions I think can make you a better thinker and a better person in general. Let's get into it. First, your brain is not a courtroom. Think about this. Most of us imagine our brain is like a judge. Evidence comes in, we objectively examine both sides, and then we make a ruling. That's a wonderful idea. sometimes your brain behaves less like a judge and more like a lawyer. There's a huge difference. A judge says what's true, an attorney may say, well, how can I defend my position? And once you formed an opinion, your brain can become extremely talented at defending it. You start collecting evidence, remembering examples, find experts, find articles, discover YouTube videos, find podcasts, and suddenly you've built a beautiful case. There's just one problem. Did you ever seriously investigate the other side? See, number one thing I want to start with, the number one thing I want to start with is probably the most famous one, and that's confirmation bias. Basically, what that means is we tend to notice, seek out, interpret, and really just remember information that supports what. we already believe. So if you decide that BMWs are unreliable, okay, then suddenly every broken BMW becomes evidence. Your friend's BMW needs a transmission, you're like, see, I told you so. You read a forum post about how someone's BMW broke down. I knew it. But you drive past 200 perfectly functioning BMWs and didn't notice any of them. Why? They don't confirm your story. See, we do this constantly. We do it with money, business relationships, help success, other people, and of course politics. And this is important the internet has made confirmation bias easier than ever. Years ago, if you had a crazy theory, you might have trouble finding 10 people who agreed with you. Today, give me seven seconds. Whatever you believe. There's probably a Facebook group, a subreddit, a YouTube channel, a podcast, a talk, a TikTok creator. Somebody with a microphone explaining exactly why you're right. That's incredible when you're looking for community, but dangerous when you're looking for truth. Because we can mistake I found people who agree with me for I found evidence that I'm correct. Not always the same thing. Number two, smart people can become great rationalizers. Here's where intelligence becomes interesting. We assume smarter people should always make better decisions. But intelligence can sometimes give us a greater ability to rationalize. I'll give you an example. You want to buy an expensive car. Emotionally, you already want it. But instead of saying I want this car because it's awesome, you start building an intellectual agreement. You start building the intellectual argument. Well, the resale value is actually pretty strong. It's safer. I need something professional for my clients. This could actually be good for business. And maybe all of those things are true, but let's be honest, you wanted the car first. It was the same way when I bought my last car. A buddy of mine said, Wayne, you should buy this Mercedes. And I was like, I don't need a Mercedes. I have a truck. I'm happy with my truck. And he was like, Yeah, but and he said, You're gonna you're in real estate, you're doing this, you're doing this. And he gave me all of these reasons, and I've still said, No. Until I drove it. Until I drove it. Now it's like pac you know until I drove it on a back road a few curves and the accelerator pushed a little harder than it should be. Then all of a sudden I rationalized. Well listen, the price is good and it was. I am working with clients and it would be better to put them in a Mercedes than a pickup truck. Maybe so. But I started rationalizing, okay? But all of a sudden I wanted the car. And when I wanted the car, my brain became the attorney. Okay? I've done this, you've done this, we all do it. So, okay, and here's why it works: the word because. Next time you really want something, listen to what comes after. Because I need this because I deserve this because this makes sense because. See, sometimes what following the word because is legitimate. Sometimes your brain, though, is manufacturing. Mission and that's worth noticing. Which takes me to point number three. We don't just believe ideas, we join teams. Let me say that again. We don't just believe ideas, we join teams. And this one explains an enormous amount of human behavior. Beliefs aren't always just beliefs. They become identities. a Republican, a Democrat, a vegan, a carnivore, an entrepreneur, a Christian, an atheist, an apple person, an Android person, CrossFit, Ford, Chevy, one idea becomes part of your identity. And once an idea becomes part of your identity, challenging the idea feels like they're challenging you. And now rational discussion becomes much more harder because we're no longer debating information, we're defending identity. Now I'm gonna talk about something that I don't really care a whole lot about, but it's so important to study, and that's sports. Maybe you're a big sports fan, maybe you're not, but the point is sports make this Sports makes no sports they make this hilarious. Your team gets a questionable call and the referee is blind. Your team benefits from the exact same questionable call? Well, technically according to the rule. Same person, same intelligence, different jersey. That's tribal thinking. now take that same psychology and apply it to subjects that actually matter. Money, politics, religion, health, relationships. Suddenly it isn't so funny. Author which takes us to number four. Authority can short circuit thinking. Imagine two people telling you the same thing. Okay? One is wearing jeans and a t-shirt, the other has a white coat, a PhD label, a television studio, a best-selling book, three million followers. Who feels more credible? Probably the second person. All right? Does that make sense? In fact, if I wanted to be more credible here, then I would just pay and have, you know, fake views, but on this video, I'd have more views, right? I'd go and I would actually maybe earn a you know from I've got a master's degree, maybe I'd go get that doctorate degree, just so I could say Dr. Sutton. That makes sense. The credibility follows a lot of things that sometimes really doesn't make sense. Expertise matters, credentials matter, experience matters, but credentials does but credentials never make someone infallible. Neither does fame nor wealth, neither does having a podcast, including myself. So don't believe something simply because I said it. Investigate it. Think about it. Ask whether it made sense. I'd rather have an audience of thinkers than an audience of people automatically agree with me. I say the same thing when I'm at church and I'm ministering. Hey, listen, just because I say it, don't believe it. Open up the Bible. Study itself. Study it out for yourself. All right. And number five, social proof feels like evidence. Here's another mental shortcut. Everyone's doing it. Therefore, it must be right. You see 10 million views, 300,000 viewers, a restaurant with a line around the building, a product that's sold out. Immediately your brain thinks there must be something here. And there may be. Social proof can be useful. But popularity and truth are different things. Millions of people can believe something and millions of people be wrong. History has demonstrated that repeatedly. And here's where things get uncomfortable. Number six, we hate losing more than we love being right. Wow, think about this. Imagine you publicly argued for something for five years. You posted about it, defended, argued with friends, maybe even insulted people who disagreed with you. Then one day you encounter strong evidence that you're wrong. Now you have two options. Option one is change your mind. But changing your mind means admitting I've spent five years defending something that wasn't correct. Ouch. Option two, find a way to dismiss the new evidence. So which one feels better emotionally? Usually number two. This is why changing someone's mind isn't simply an intellectual problem, it's an identity problem. So I'm gonna teach you now one of the one of the strongest sentences a person can say. I was wrong. Not I was wrong, but okay? No, I wasn't really wrong because, just I was wrong. There's tremendous freedom in that sentence. Because once you're willing to be wrong, you become free to learn. So let me ask you, when was the last time you went to someone and said, hey, remember this? I was wrong. And just left it at that. Number seven, your memory isn't a video camera. This one fascinates me. We often talk about memories as if we're pulling up recordings. That's exactly what happened. Maybe, but memory is reconstructive. We remember pieces and our brains rebuild the event. That's why two intelligent, honest people can experience the same argument and later tell genuinely different versions of what happened. Neither necessarily how has to be lying. They actually remember it differently. That's important, especially in relationships. Sometimes the question shouldn't be who's, you know, who's lying here and who's telling the truth? It should be, is it possible we're remembering this differently? That one question could probably prevent a lot of arguments. Now, if you're this far in the podcast, you may find yourself thinking, Wayne, this is interesting, but what does any of this have to do with success? What? Everything because your decisions are downstream from your beliefs. If you believe something, then it your body, your mind, your actions will make a self-fulfilling prophecy out of it. When I work with people and they say, hey, Wayne, I'm terrible at sales, they avoid selling. If they believe investing is gambling, they may never invest. If they believe people like me never become wealthy, they sabotage opportunities. Too old? I'm too young. Wait a minute. Your beliefs don't just describe your world, they influence the behavior inside your world. So if the belief is wrong, your behavior may be built around bad information. This is the dangerous part. You know, beliefs The beliefs that we have to question are often the ones that don't feel like beliefs. They feel like facts. This is just how life works. Everyone knows this. That's obvious. Whenever I hear myself thinking that, I've learned to become curious. I'm learning. It's a process. Maybe it is obvious. Maybe it's completely correct, but maybe I've stopped examining. So here's what I want you to do. I want to give you five questions. You know if you follow this podcast, I love to give actionable steps. Okay. So five questions that can make you a better thinker. Right? And I want you to do something. Hit that pause button. Go grab pen and paper. Write these down. Question one, what evidence would change my mind? This is powerful. Pick something you strongly believe. Then ask, what would I need to see or hear to conclude that I'm wrong? If your answer is nothing, that's a warning sign. Question number two, am I looking for truth or confirmation? There's a difference. Are you researching or are you collecting admonition for what you already believe? Question three, what's the strongest argument against my position? Not the dumbest argument. That's easy. Find the smartest person who disagrees with you. What are they saying? Can you explain their argument fairly? If you can't, you probably don't understand the debate yet. Question four Would I believe this if the other team said it? Think about this. Would I believe this if the other team said it? I love this question. Take away personality, political party, company influencer, tribe. Would the argument still persuade you? And if not, why? And question five, what if I am wrong? This may be the most valuable question in this entire episode. What does being wrong cost me? And if we're talking about what pizza topping is best, it doesn't really matter, right? But if we're talking about your health, your marriage, your career, your business, your religion, your eternal life, your future, the cost could be enormous. The bigger the consequences, the more carefully we should examine our assumptions. And this is one thing I've learned at fifty three years old. When I was younger, I thought intelligence just meant having more answers. As I've gotten older, I think intelligence has much more to do with asking better questions. I don't need to have an opinion about everything. I don't have to win every argument. I don't need everyone to agree with me, and I certainly don't need to pretend I'm never wrong. I'd rather update my thinking than protect my ego. Because the goal isn't to look right, the goal is to get closer to what's true. And yes, my Christian faith influences this as well. One of the things I've always appreciated about scripture is the emphasis on wisdom, discernment, and examining ourselves. Faith doesn't require me to stop thinking, quite the opposite. I want truth to be more important than my ego. And that's something I have to practice just like everyone else. So here's my final challenge for you today. Find something you strongly believe, not something trivial, something important. And spend 20 minutes trying to prove yourself wrong. Not right, wrong. Look for the best opposing evidence. Listen to someone intelligent who disagrees with you. Ask, what am I missing? You may finish the exercise believing exactly what you believed before, and that's great. But now you'll probably understand why you believe it. And maybe, just maybe you'll discover one of the smartest things you can ever say is: I never thought about it that way. A number of years ago, I had this happen. I am and I have make no excuses here on this podcast. I am a conservative pro-life. and when it comes to my my beliefs, when it comes to my identity, when it comes to politics. Okay. And I was speaking with a really good friend who is more liberal and was pro choice. And I said, listen, there's nothing you can say that's gonna change my mind. However, I wanna hear. I wanna hear you. Let's talk. And he had one statement that really stood out. Now, that statement I don't believe applied to me, but I did see how that statement could apply to other people that were conservative pro-life. And it gave me a different perspective. I still stand on my belief that all life is precious. And conception starts, life starts at conception. However, what I did realize was A maybe at least a reason he felt the way he felt, which gave me more of a reason to come back and study into that. But it also gave me a reason to realize was my belief based solely on repetition and based solely on religion, or was it based on other areas? Okay. So say, hey, I want to hear your point of view. That's one of the best things you can do. Now, if this episode made you uncomfortable, Great. It made me uncomfortable too, because none of us are immune to this. And if you know someone who considers themselves pretty smart, send them this episode and say, hey, Wayne says you're probably wrong about something. Let's see what happens. And be sure to subscribe for more conversation around psychology, success, money, human behavior, persuasion, health, and the strange things our brains do without asking for permission. Until next time, stay curious. Question your assumptions. Be willing to change your mind and never confuse being confident with being correct. This is Wayne Sutton. Prosper with Wayne. God bless you.