May 3, 2024

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit. 

 

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1      43-33, 56.6%, up 4.0607 units

@KotaCapperKyle        27-28, 49.1%, down 4.28 units

 

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped in the newsletter)

Play 1: NRFI - Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-125)

  • I played the under overnight on the podcast and said this: A couple of good righties on the bump tonight at Yankees Stadium. Marcus Stroman for New York, 3.69 ERA on the season, 3.65 career ERA. Stroman is coming into this one off his worst start of the year allowing 4 runs over 4 innings at Milwaukee. Tigers rank 23rd in OPS vs. righties. Reese Olson gets the call for Detroit, 3.18 ERA on the season, 3.82 career ERA. Olson is 0-4 on year, I'm expect a strong effort tonight. Let's just add the NRFI. 

Play 2: NRFI - Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics (-135)

  • I played the A's on the ML last night. I have a thing for JP Sears, after a 3-game stretch tossing 6.1 shutout innings against Texas, 5 innings allowing 1 run against St. Louis, and 6 shutout innings against the Yankees, the wheels came off the bus for Sears after 3 scoreless innings against the O's. The final box score read 6.1 innings with 7 runs allowed. Marlins rank 29th in OPS vs. lefties, 25th in runs scored. Ryan Weathers gets the call for Miami, 4.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP on the season. I think Weathers can get me 3 outs without a run to start the game. 

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday:

YRFI: Orioles/Reds (-115)

These are two of the hottest hitting teams in baseball. Both of these teams are top 10 in terms of runs scored. Both Cole Irvin and Hunter Greene are having down years in terms of ERA, and I think these teams take advantage of this right out of the gates. 

YRFI: Tigers/Yankees (+110)

These are two teams that have their top of their lineups leading them to success. Both of these teams top of the lineup have guys that can go yard and can easily get a run across. Add on the fact that we got two above 3.00 ERA pitchers on the mound, getting this at plus money is value and should be taken advantage of. 

NRFI: Angels/Guardians (-130)

The Angels bats have struggled in the first inning this season and going up against a talented pitcher in Tanner Bibee is not going to be easy. Meanwhile the Guardians have not seen much of Jose Soriano of the Angels as they have only gone up against him 3 times among 3 batters. It will take a while to figure him out. All of those factors added together makes the NRFI the play. 

NRFI: Red Sox/Twins (-125)

Although the Twins have been pretty decent in the first inning this year, they are going up against Tanner Houck who has one of the lowest ERAs in the majors this year with a 1.60. Meanwhile the Red Sox have struggled in the first inning this year, and I'm not confident they'll get a run here. All that together is once against spelling out the NRFI to me.