Why This El Niño Matters More Than You Think

0:00 What if one patch of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean could trigger droughts, floods, coral bleaching, food shortages, and record-breaking temperatures around the world? This is the How to Protect the Ocean podcast, your weekday ocean news update. If you care about staying informed about the ocean every weekday, Monday to Friday, hit that follow button right now on the podcast app that you're listening to this to, and let's get started with the show. Today, we're talking about something that ocean scientists, climate researchers, and governments around the world are watching very closely. It's a developing El Niño, but not just any El Niño, a potentially very strong El Niño.

0:41 Some scientists are even using the phrase super El Niño. And if you wanna get, like, a true breakdown of what El Niño is and you follow the Basement Biologist on TikTok or on Instagram, I highly recommend that you go there. If I could link to it, I will, because he did a very good rendition of, like, what this is, like, from a scientific point of view, a biologist point of view. I highly recommend that you go do it. But we're gonna talk a little bit about today especially from the conservation, like, why people are so worried. Like, why are scientists so concerned about this year's El Niño? We've had them before but what it could mean for the ocean and for people around the world. So let's get into it. If you've listened to the podcast before, you've probably heard the term El Niño. I've talked about it before. But let's get a quick breakdown, unless you wanna go… If you wanna stop this or wait till after and go back to the Basement Biologist to listen to his rendition of what an El Niño is, he did a really great explanation.

1:31 But here is the brief. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that happens when the surface waters of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. That warming changes the wind patterns. Those wind changes affect rainfall. Rainfall affects agriculture. Agriculture affects food prices. And suddenly, a patch of warm ocean is influencing communities thousands of kilometers away. And that's why El Niño is often described as one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth. And right now, scientists are seeing signals that suggest this event could become exponentially strong. NOAA recently estimated a significant chance that the upcoming event could rank among the strongest El Niño events observed since modern records began in 1950.

2:16 That's pretty scary because the last few, especially the one in 2016 was pretty scary. There was also a warm blob that came down from the Arctic. It lasted a number of years and it definitely changed our system, like our entire planet. But scientists have been tracking unusually warm water temperatures, large pools of heat below the ocean surface, and atmospheric changes that are all lining up in a way that suggests a major event might be developing. This is why we have baseline data, folks. This is why ocean observing systems are really, really important. Now, here's something important. A strong El Niño doesn't automatically guarantee a disaster. Scientists repeatedly emphasize that stronger events increase the odds of extreme impacts, but they don't guarantee them.

2:58 Now, think of it as loading the dice. You don't know exactly what number will come up, but you know the odds have changed, and that's why researchers are paying so much attention. So why should ocean conservationists care? That's the question. Because El Niño can affect almost every major ocean issue we talk about on this show. So let's start with coral reefs. When ocean temperature stays elevated for long periods, we know what happens. Corals become stressed. That stress can lead to coral bleaching, and we've already seen widespread bleaching events in recent years. And a strong El Niño can add even more heat to already stressed ocean ecosystems. And you talk about cumulative effects, like, the fisheries. In the Eastern Pacific, warm waters can disrupt nutrient-rich upwelling systems.

3:41 Normally, cold water rises from the deep in those upwelling systems and bring nutrients to the surface. Those nutrients support plankton, plankton support fish, fish support fisheries. When that process is disrupted, the entire food web changes, and it can feel the impact. So historically, some major El Niño events have severely affected fisheries, including Peru's anchovy fishery during the early 1970s. But the story doesn't stop in the ocean. A strong El Niño can influence droughts in some regions and flooding in others. Parts of Australia, Southeast Asia, and portions of the Amazon often experience hotter and drier conditions during major events. Other regions may see increased rainfall and flooding.

4:21 That matters because food systems are connected globally. Recent reporting suggests crops like cocoa, coffee, and sugar may be particularly vulnerable if a strong El Niño develops later this year. And here's where the story becomes even bigger than weather. We're not experiencing this El Niño in the same world that existed in 1982 or even in 2015. We are experiencing it in a world that is already warmer because of climate change. Scientists have repeatedly pointed out that the additional heat already present in the atmosphere and the oceans may amplify some of the impacts associated with El Niño. So it's not just El Niño, it's El Niño plus warming planet. That combination is what many researchers find concerning.

5:01 Now I'm gonna just interrupt quickly. If you are getting value from this quick ocean news update on El Niño, and you wanna follow the show and never miss an episode, please hit that follow button. If you wanna go above that, and you wanna support me and the work that I do about putting out the podcast, putting out YouTube videos, putting out newsletters, doing all the social media posts that you can enjoy anywhere and wherever you'd like, please join my Patreon, speakupforblue.com/patreon, so you can support the show if you so choose. We also have options to listen to the different feeds if you just want one episode a week or if you want five episodes a week. You can do it there for free. So there's lots of things to do. I'll be putting up updates of some of the videos that are gonna come out in the future and where I'm gonna go and my strategy, all that kinda stuff. You can support me on Patreon, speakupforblue.com/patreon So what should we watch for over the next few months during this potential El Niño?

5:51 First, scientists will continue monitoring the Pacific Ocean temperatures because they have the observing system to do that, which is why we need baseline data, and we need to fund baseline data. The strength of the El Niño is measured using several indicators, and researchers will be looking closely to see whether current forecasts continue to strengthen or begin to weaken. Second, we're gonna watch for coral bleaching reports. If ocean temperatures remain elevated, reefs in vulnerable regions could experience additional stress. We've seen the Great Barrier Reef go ninety-four percent bleaching. They recovered in many of those places. But as those bleaches continue to increase, and then we start to get longer periods of ocean warming, that bleaching becomes more and more severe every year. Now, the third thing we're gonna do is we're gonna watch for food and fishery stories.

6:33 Many of the earliest impacts of El Niño show up in agriculture, fisheries, and water availability. You can almost even see it in the gray whale populations off the West Coast. Something is going on there, and they think that the food shortages or the food displacement because of climate change and current displacement, everything like that, is affecting these gray whales on the West Coast of North America. And finally, we're gonna watch how governments and organizations prepare. The World Meteorological Organization has already urged countries to prepare for potential extreme weather impacts associated with the developing event. If you're on TikTok or Instagram and you follow any meteorologist, they are talking about this super El Niño. I guarantee you they're talking about the super El Niño. The encouraging part is that the forecasting has improved dramatically.

7:14 Scientists can now see many of the signals months before the strongest impacts occur, so we can prepare better. That doesn't prevent the event. It just gives the communities time to prepare for the event. Farmers can adjust, emergency managers can plan, conservation organizations can monitor vulnerable ecosystems, and policymakers can make decisions before conditions become critical. That's a much better position than humanity was in during some of the most historical El Niño events of the past. So the most important thing to remember is this: a strong El Niño starts in the ocean, but its impacts reach far beyond those coastlines. It can affect coral reefs, fisheries, food systems, water supplies, and communities around the world.

7:55 That's why ocean monitoring matters, because what happens in the Pacific rarely stays in the Pacific Now, I wanna thank you for joining me on today's episode. That's it for today's episode. If you wanna get ahold of me, you can do so by going to the show notes, looking at my social media posts. You can DM me on Instagram, on TikTok, Facebook, wherever you'd like. I'd be more than happy to answer those DMs. And of course, if you wanna support the podcast, and you support the work that I do, putting out the podcast, YouTube videos, newsletters, all the stuff that I do, social media posts, you can do so by becoming a patron. Go to speakupforblue.com/patreon. That's speakupforblue.com/patreon. Link is in the show notes. But thank you for joining me on today's episode of the How to Protect the Ocean podcast.

8:38 Have a great day. We'll talk to you next time, and happy conservation