S03E122: Updates - NASA's Crew Dragon Dilemma and SpaceX's Historic Polaris Dawn

Welcome to Astronomy Daily, your go-to podcast for the latest news and updates in the world of astronomy and space exploration. I'm your host, Anna. Each day, we bring you the most exciting stories from the cosmos, keeping you informed about the latest discoveries, missions, and breakthroughs in space science. From NASA’s groundbreaking missions to private spaceflight adventures, we've got it all covered for you. So, sit back, relax, and let's dive into today's top stories.

NASA officials have revealed that astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who were delivered to the International Space Station (ISS) by Boeing's Starliner in June, could make their return journey aboard SpaceX's Crew Dragon in February 2025 if Starliner is still considered unsafe. This decision would mark a crucial turning point for Boeing, which has struggled to keep pace with SpaceX's successful Crew Dragon missions. The initial plan was that Wilmore and Williams' mission would last about eight days on the ISS. However, problems with Starliner's propulsion system have raised concerns about the vessel's ability to safely bring them back to Earth. In particular, thruster failures during the Starliner's approach to the ISS and helium leaks have prompted extensive testing to diagnose and solve these issues. Recent tests have exposed new information that increases the uncertainty about Starliner's safety. Four of its thrusters failed in June due to overheating, which caused a Teflon seal to warp and restrict the propellant flow. This led to considerable debate within NASA about whether to take the risk of using Starliner for the return trip or make new arrangements with SpaceX.

Despite considerable pressure, NASA has yet to reach a final decision on the matter. Meanwhile, Boeing has been given more time for additional testing to make a stronger case for Starliner's reliability. This situation has undoubtedly put a spotlight on the safety and reliability of spacecraft, emphasizing that astronaut missions must be foolproof. This dilemma is a big setback for Boeing, which has spent around $1.6 billion since 2016 on Starliner's development, including $125 million for the current test mission. On the other hand, SpaceX, which received NASA's certification for astronaut flights in 2020, stands ready to step in. If NASA decides to move ahead with the Crew Dragon option, Crew Dragon will leave two seats empty for Wilmore and Williams during its February mission. Despite the setbacks, Boeing remains optimistic and committed to configuring Starliner for an uncrewed return if necessary. As the discussion within NASA continues, the world watches closely, understanding that the implications of this decision will extend far beyond the immediate mission. It will influence not only NASA's relationship with Boeing and SpaceX but also the future landscape of commercial spaceflight and competition in the aerospace industry.

Next up, we have exciting news about SpaceX's Polaris Dawn mission, which is now targeting a launch date of August 26. This ambitious mission aims to make history in multiple ways. First and foremost, it will feature the first-ever private spacewalk, setting a new milestone in the era of commercial space exploration. The Polaris Dawn mission will send four talented individuals into Earth orbit aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule. This capsule will lift off from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, being propelled by a Falcon 9 rocket. The mission’s commander is none other than billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, who has become quite the name in private space missions. Joining him will be pilot Scott "Kidd" Poteet, a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel, and mission specialists Sarah Gillis and Anna Menon, both engineers at SpaceX.

One of the remarkable aspects of this mission is its planned altitude. Polaris Dawn will orbit at about 435 miles above the Earth, making it the farthest a crewed mission has travelled from our planet since the Apollo era. Unlike most other missions that dock with the International Space Station, Polaris Dawn will be a free-flying mission, allowing for greater flexibility and unique challenges. The mission is a part of the Polaris Program, of which Polaris Dawn is the first of three planned crewed missions. All these missions will utilize SpaceX hardware and be funded by Isaacman, who demonstrated his commitment to private space exploration with the Inspiration4 mission in September 2021. Each mission in the Polaris Program aims to push the envelope further, building on the successes and lessons of its predecessors.

Originally scheduled to launch in 2022, Polaris Dawn has faced numerous delays, mainly due to the pioneering complexity and safety protocols involved in executing such an ambitious venture. However, with the confirmed launch date now set for August 26, the space community is eagerly awaiting what promises to be a groundbreaking mission both in terms of distance from Earth and the accomplishments it's set to achieve. So, mark your calendars! If everything goes as planned, August 26 will be a red-letter day not just for SpaceX but for the future of private space exploration. Stay tuned for more updates as the launch date approaches.

The FAA is forecasting a dramatic increase in private space launches, predicting that by 2028 the number of annual licensed launches could more than double. This surge is largely attributed to the growing capabilities and utilization of reusable rockets, notably SpaceX's Falcon 9. The reusability of these rockets has driven down costs and made space more accessible, encouraging a wave of new entrants into the market. Already in fiscal year 2024, the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation has surpassed its previous record for the number of launches, and there's still time left in the fiscal year. By fiscal year 2028, the FAA anticipates overseeing 338 launches, compared to the 156 forecasted for this year. This rapid growth underscores the expanding interest and investment in commercial satellite services and human spaceflight missions.

Part of the rising numbers can be attributed to the success and reliability of reusable launch vehicles. SpaceX's Falcon 9, which has become the workhorse of SpaceX's launch lineup, has revolutionized the industry by drastically reducing the cost of sending payloads to orbit. But SpaceX isn't alone in driving this growth. Companies like Rocket Lab, Virgin Galactic, and Blue Origin are steadily increasing their launch frequencies and capabilities. The FAA's space office also boasts an impressive safety record, proudly noting that no member of the public has ever been lost or seriously injured due to an FAA-authorized launch or reentry operation. This stellar track record is vital as the number of launches continues to swell, ensuring public and national security concerns are adequately addressed. Overall, the future of private space launches looks extraordinarily bright, with more players entering the field and pushing the boundaries of what's possible. As commercial space ventures become more frequent and varied, we'll likely witness a new era of innovation and discovery.

Lastly, a growing number of scientists are advocating for serious studies into UFOs, now termed as unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAPs. For decades, the subject of UFOs has often been met with skepticism and dismissed as the stuff of conspiracy theories. However, the need for scientific scrutiny has become increasingly evident. The U.S. government has started to take UAPs seriously, mainly due to concerns over national security. Unexplained phenomena in the skies could pose potential threats, interfering with aviation or representing advanced technology from foreign adversaries. This new perspective aims to remove the stigma and encourage pilots and citizens to report sightings without fear of ridicule. NASA and other government agencies have launched initiatives to understand UAPs better. In June 2022, NASA announced an independent study to explore these phenomena and how they could contribute their scientific expertise. This move signifies a major shift from the historical approach of treating UFO reports as fringe.

One of the most significant steps towards transparency has been the establishment of the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office in 2022. This office serves as a centralized hub for collecting, analyzing, and sharing information on UAPs. In addition, advocacy groups like Americans for Safe Aerospace are pushing for legislation that allows for confidential reporting of UAP sightings by aviation professionals. The shift in terminology from UFOs to UAPs is also designed to bring a more scientific rigor to the field. By framing these phenomena as anomalous and not necessarily extraterrestrial, scientists can study them without the preconceived notions that have hampered this research for so long. Developments in technology are also playing a crucial role in this new wave of UAP research. Advanced visualization tools and data analysis techniques now enable investigators to decode sightings with unprecedented precision. For example, commercial pilots and amateur astronomers alike have started using more sophisticated equipment to capture and analyze these anomalies, providing valuable data that could one day lead to a better understanding of what we are seeing in our skies.

Researchers are also developing dedicated instrument packages to monitor UAPs. These setups will feature cameras, sensors, and data processing tools, allowing for real-time monitoring and long-term studies. While these instruments are still in development stages, they offer a promising future for the systematic study of UAPs. So, while we still have a long way to go, it's clear that both the scientific community and government agencies are gearing up to offer us deeper insights into these mysterious phenomena, moving us one step closer to making the unexplained explicable.

 That’s all for today’s episode of Astronomy Daily. I’ve been your host, Anna. Make sure to visit our website at astronomydaily.io to sign up for our free daily newsletter and catch up on all the latest space and astronomy news with our constantly updating newsfeed. You can also listen to all our back episodes there. Don’t forget to follow us on social media by searching for AstroDailyPod on Facebook, X, YouTube, and TikTok. Until next time, keep looking up!