Runaway Black Hole Confirmed, Mercury Still Active & 2032 Moon Impact Risk

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Anna: Welcome to Astronomy Daily, your

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source for the latest space and astronomy

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news. I'm Anna.

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Avery: And I'm Avery. Thanks for joining us on this

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Thursday, February 29, 2026.

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We've got a fascinating lineup today covering

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everything from Mercury's surprising

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geological activity to a possible

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asteroid impact on the M Moon.

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Anna: That's right. We're going to explore bright

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streaks on Mercury that suggest our

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smallest planet is still geologically

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active. Cheque in on NASA's TESS

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satellite after a command error temporarily

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sidelined it and discuss the discovery of an

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intriguing Earth like exoplanet that's

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much colder than you might expect.

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Avery: Plus, we'll bring you updates on NASA and

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SpaceX. Moving up the Crew 12 launch to help

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out the Skeleton crew currently on the

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International Space Station. Then we'll dive

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into the wild world of runaway black holes

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tearing through space and wrap up with what

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could be a once in a lifetime scientific

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opportunity if an asteroid hits the moon in

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2020 32.

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Anna: It's quite a ride.

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Today, let's get started with some surprising

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news from the innermost planet in our solar

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system.

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Avery: Mercury has long been viewed as a small,

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geologically dead world, but new research

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is challenging that assumption in a big way.

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A team led by researchers at the University

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of Bern has uncovered hundreds of bright

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linear streaks on crater slopes that point to

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ongoing volcanic activity and and volatile

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laws from Mercury's interior.

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Anna: This is really fascinating work, Avery.

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The team applied deep learning techniques to

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analyse about 100,000 high

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resolution images taken by NASA's

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messenger spacecraft during its orbital

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mission from 2011 to 2015.

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Using this automated approach, they mapped

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the global distribution of roughly

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400 bright streaks that had previously

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escaped comprehensive cataloguing.

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Avery: And what they found was pretty telling. These

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features, known as slope lineae, occur

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preferentially on sun facing slopes inside

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relatively young impact craters that cut

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through thick volcanic deposits. The

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concentration of streaks in these thermally

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stressed environments indicates that solar

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heating is an important trigger for volatile

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escape from near surface layers.

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Anna: Much of these streaks originate in small

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bright depressions called hollows that dot

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crater floors and walls. These hollows have

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long been interpreted as products of volatile

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loss, and their close association with the

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lineae supports the view that both structures

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form when volatile components like sulphur

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or other light elements escape from the

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subsurface.

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Avery: According to the research team, fracture

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networks created by the original impact

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events likely provide pathways that allow

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volatile rich material from deeper levels to

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reach the surface. Uh, as solar radiation

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warms these exposed zones, volatiles can

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escape into space, driving the development or

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modification of the Bright streaks downslope.

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Anna: What's particularly exciting is the

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timing. This research arrives just as the

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joint ESA and JAXA uh, Becky Colombo

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mission is en route to Mercury. The mission

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carries an advanced payload that includes

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several key contributions from the University

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of Bernard.

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Avery: Absolutely. The Becky Colombo Laser Altimeter

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or bela, was designed and built in part

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at the University of Bern. It will use laser

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pulses from an orbit roughly a thousand

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kilometres above the surface to measure

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elevations with about 10 centimetre

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precision, enabling a uh, detailed

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reconstruction of Mercury's topography.

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Anna: The Bern team also contributed the ion

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optical system for STROFEO, a NASA

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mass spectrometer on BepiColombo that will m

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measure the composition of Mercury's

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extremely thin atmosphere, connecting

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present day volatile escape at the surface to

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the surrounding exosphere.

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Avery: The research team plans to use the current

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inventory of slope streaks as a baseline for

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future comparisons once BepiColombo begins

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returning data by imaging key regions

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again, they aim to determine whether new

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streaks have formed or existing ones have

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changed since the MESSENGER era. Any such

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changes would provide strong evidence that

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volatile driven processes are still

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reshaping Mercury's surface on human time

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timescales.

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Anna: It's a great reminder that even our smallest

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closest planetary neighbour still has secrets

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to reveal. Mercury is far more dynamic than

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we thought.

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Avery: Shifting from Mercury to uh, our planet

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hunting efforts, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet

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Survey Satellite, or TESS, recently had a bit

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of a scare when a command error temporarily

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knocked it offline.

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Anna: Right. The spacecraft was forced into safe

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mode after an unexpected command error caused

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its solar panels to misalign with the sun.

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This misalignment had serious consequences

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because the panels were unable to charge

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tess's batteries, leading to a low power

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condition that triggered the automatic

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transition to safe mode.

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Avery: In safe mode, all non essential systems are

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turned off to conserve power and the

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spacecraft awaits further instructions from

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ground controllers. NASA engineers quickly

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worked to resolve the issue and fortunately

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tess's safe mode performed as intended,

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protecting the spacecraft from permanent

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damage.

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Anna: This incident is actually reminiscent of past

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missin failures. Remember Viking 1 back

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in 1982? A uh, faulty command caused the

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loss of communication and there was that

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catastrophic series of events that nearly

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destroyed the Soho probe in 1998.

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But unlike those cases, TESS was fortunate

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to have safeguards in place.

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Avery: Exactly. The spacecraft's automatic safe

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mode kicked in when the power situation

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became critical. The safe mode is designed to

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preserve the spacecraft's core functions such

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as attitude control and ensure it can be

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reactivated once engineers identify and

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address the issue.

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Anna: According to NASA, the mission team is now

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reviewing and updating procedures to prevent

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this command error from happening in the

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future. It's a good reminder that even with

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advanced technology, human error remains a

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significant challenge in space operations.

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Avery: Absolutely. While tess's recovery was

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successful and demonstrates how far space

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mission technology has come, this incident

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emphasises the need for continued vigilance

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in mission planning. The risk of human error

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is always there, and the consequences can be

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costly in terms of both time and resources.

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Anna: The good news is that TESS is back online and

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continuing its important work of hunting for

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exoplanets. Which brings us nicely to our

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next storey about a newly discovered Earth

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like world.

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Avery: Speaking of exoplanets, astronomers have just

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discovered what might be one of the closest

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things we have to Earth's twin. Though it's

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considerably colder than our home.

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Anna: Planet, the Exoplanet is called

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HD13710B

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and it's located 146 light years

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away. It's slightly larger than Earth and

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orbits a star that resembles our Sun.

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However, despite its similarities to Earth in

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terms of size and orbital period, its surface

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could be far colder than even Mars,

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potentially reaching a frigid minus 90

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degrees Fahrenheit or minus 68 degrees

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Celsius.

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Avery: This discovery was published in the

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Astrophysical Journal Letters and was made by

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an international team led by Alexander

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Venner. The search for Earth, like

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exoplanets, has been a central focus of

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astronomical research for over three decades

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now.

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Anna: Dr. Huang, a key member of the research team,

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explained it well when he said, since the

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discovery of the first exoplanet 30 years

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ago, we've always tried to find Earth's

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Trinity. HD13007 010

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b could bring us closer to that goal.

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Although it's not an exact match, the.

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Avery: Planet is positioned in what astronomers call

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the habitable zone of its star, which is the

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area where water could potentially exist in

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liquid form, which is crucial for life as we

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know it. However, there's a major obstacle

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right the.

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Anna: Star HD

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137010B

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orbits is cooler and dimmer than our sun,

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meaning the planet receives only a fraction

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of the energy Earth does. This could result

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in surface temperatures as low as

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-90 degrees Fahrenheit, making it one

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of the coldest exoplanets discovered in

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recent years.

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Avery: But scientists remain hopeful. Dr.

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Venner pointed out that while the planet's

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surface might be frozen, it could still fall

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within the broader optimistic habitable zone

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of its star. With the right atmospheric

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conditions,

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HD137010B

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might not be as inhospitable as its

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temperature suggests.

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Anna: One of the challenges of studying this planet

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is its orbital distance from its star, which

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is similar to Earth's but much farther than

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the typical exoplanets that are easier to

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observe. Transits when the planet crosses

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in front of its star happen less frequently,

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making it harder to confirm the planet's

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existence.

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Avery: The discovery was made from a single Transit

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captured by NASA's Kepler Space Telescope.

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Further confirmation of the planet's

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existence and detailed analysis of its mass

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and atmosphere will require more data, which

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might not be possible until the next

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generation of telescopes become operational.

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Anna: It's an exciting discovery that adds to our

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understanding of the types of environments

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where life could potentially exist beyond our

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solar system. Even if

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HD137010B

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is too cold for life as we know it, it

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teaches us valuable lessons about planetary

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habitability.

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Avery: Now let's turn our attention back to Earth

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orbit and the International Space Station.

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NASA has announced an earlier than expected

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target date to launch the next astronauts to

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the ISS.

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Anna: That's right, the agency is now targeting

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February 11 for liftoff of SpaceX

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Crew 12 mission, which will fly four

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astronauts to join the skeleton crew

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presently operating the orbital.

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That's four days earlier than originally

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planned.

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Avery: Just to give everyone context, currently only

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three crew members are covering the

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maintenance and science investigations aboard

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the ISS. They were left behind on January

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14th by the early departure of Crew 11

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on the station's first ever medical

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evacuation.

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Anna: The M Crew 12 astronauts were already in line

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to take the Crew 11's quartet's place, but

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they had originally been scheduled to overlap

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with them before their return to Earth.

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SpaceX and NASA had originally targeted

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February 15 for Crew 12's launch, but

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managed to get the mission's crew Dragon

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spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket ready ahead

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of schedule.

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Avery: The Crew 12 team includes NASA

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astronauts Jessica Meir, who's the mission

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commander, and Jack Hathaway as pilot.

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The mission specialists are Sophie Adenot of

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the European Space Agency and

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Roscosmos cosmonaut Andrei

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Fedyayev.

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Anna: Interestingly, Fedyav was a relatively late

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replacement for cosmonaut Oleg Artemiev, who

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was pulled off Crew 12 in early December,

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possibly for violating US national security

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regulations.

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Avery: This quartet will fly the crew Dragon capsule

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named Grace to the ISS for a longer than

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normal assignment lasting nine months instead

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of the typical six months. It'll be the

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second spaceflight for both Mayur and Fedyav,

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while Hathaway and Adino uh are both

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spaceflight rookies headed to orbit for the

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first time.

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Anna: The launch window opens on February 11th at

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6:00am Eastern Time from Launch Complex 40

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at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in

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Florida. If they don't manage to launch that

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day, there are backup opportunities. On

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February 12th and 13th, the Crew.

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Avery: 12 astronauts will join NASA, Chris Williams

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and cosmonauts Sergey Kud Sverskov and

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Sergei Mikayev as part of ISS

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Expedition 74, which will eventually

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transition to Expedition 75 before

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the end of Crew 12's rotation station. It's

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great to see the relief crew heading up

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sooner to help out the skeleton crew

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currently managing the station.

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Anna: Now for something truly mind bending.

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Astronomers have confirmed the first runaway

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supermassive black hole and it's leaving

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quite a trail behind it.

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Avery: This is wild stuff, Anna. Uh, the black

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hole was identified by a 200,000 light

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year tail and a supersonic bow shock in the

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Cosmic Owl galaxy, which is actually a

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pair of ring galaxies about 8.8 billion

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light years away. The rings appear as

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owlized as they get closer and closer to

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merging.

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Anna: The research led by Peter von Dockam, um,

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from Yale's Astronomy Department, was

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confirmed using observations from the James

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Webb Space Telescope. The central

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proposal is that this linear feature is the

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wake behind a runaway supermassive black

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hole. And this is strongly supported by their

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analysis.

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Avery: But how does something weighing potentially

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millions or even billions of times the mass

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of our sun get kicked out of a galaxy? The

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answer lies in galaxy mergers. When big

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galaxies collide and merge, they force the

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black holes at their respective centres into

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close proximity.

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Anna: Right. If two black holes become locked in a

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gravitational dance and then a third crashes

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in from another merging galaxy, the resulting

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instability can hurl one of the trio away at

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sufficient speed to exit the host galaxy

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entirely. This can happen through two main

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mechanisms.

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Avery: The first is gravitational wave recoil.

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When black holes merge, they emit uh,

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gravitational waves that can give the

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resulting black hole a velocity boost of up

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to several thousand kilometres per second,

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propelling it away from the galactic centre.

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Anna: The second mechanism is the classical

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slingshot scenario. In this case, a long

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lived binary black hole forms through a

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merger of two galaxies when a third

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supermassive black hole is introduced. In a

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second merger, the three body interaction can

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eject one of the black holes, usually the

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lightest one.

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Avery: What's particularly striking about this

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confirmed runaway black hole is the trail it

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leaves behind. As the black hole ploughs

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through intergalactic space, it compresses

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tenuous gas in front of it, which

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precipitates the birth of hot blue stars.

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This creates a 200,000 light year long

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contrail of young stars.

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Anna: The black hole also generates a bow shock at

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the head of this week, something the

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researchers predicted based on shock models

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from the ages of the stars in the trail. They

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deduce that the black hole escaped about 40

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million years ago and is barreling through

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space at roughly 1600 kilometres per

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second.

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Avery: To put that in perspective, that's fast

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enough to travel from Earth to the moon in

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about 14 minutes. It's an incredible

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speed for something so massive.

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Anna: Recent papers have shown images of

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surprisingly straight streaks of stars within

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galaxies that seem to be convincing evidence

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for runaway black holes. One paper describes

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a very distant galaxy imaged by James Webb

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with a bright contrail, suggesting a black

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hole with a mass 10 million times the mass

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of the sun.

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Avery: It's a reminder that the universe is even

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more dynamic and violent than we often

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imagine. These behemoths aren't just sitting

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quietly at the centres of galaxies. Some of

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them are literally tearing through space,

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creating new stars in their wake.

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Anna: And finally, let's talk about an upcoming

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event that has both exciting scientific

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potential and some concerning risks.

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On 12-22-2032,

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asteroid 2024 yr 4

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has a 4% chance of actually striking

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the Moon.

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Avery: A 4% chance might not sound like much, but

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it's definitely non negligible. If this

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collision does happen, it will release enough

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energy to be the equivalent of smacking our

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nearest neighbour with a medium sized

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thermonuclear weapon. It would be six

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orders of magnitude more powerful than the

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last major impact on the moon, which happened

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back in 2013.

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Anna: A uh, new paper from Yifan he of Tsinghua

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University looks at the potential scientific

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opportunities if this collision occurs. And

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while they can simulate models of how the

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impact will go, monitoring it as it happens

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will provide never before collected actual

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data that's infeasible to get any other way.

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Avery: The impact would vaporise rock and plasma and

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would be clearly visible from the Pacific

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region where it will be nighttime during the

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impact. Even days after the impact, the

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melt pool of the impacted material will still

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be cooling, allowing infrared observers like

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the James Webb Space Telescope to capture

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plenty of data.

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Anna: The impact should form a crater roughly one

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kilometre wide and 150 to

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260 metres deep, with a 100

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00:17:02.740 --> 00:17:05.260
metre pool of molten rock at the centre.

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Comparing it in size to other craters

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scattered around the moon will help us

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understand its bombardment history.

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Avery: The impact will also set off a global

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moonquake of magnitude 5.0 that

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would be the strongest moonquake yet detected

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by any seismometer on the Moon. Watching the

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propagation of the moonquake will shine a

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light on the Moon's interior and help

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researchers understand its composition.

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Anna: And here's where it gets really spectacular.

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A final piece of the scientific puzzle will

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be the debris field created by the blast. Up

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to 400 kilogrammes of lunar material

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is expected to survive re entry to Earth,

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creating essentially a free large scale

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lunar sample return mission.

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Avery: At its peak right around Christmas of 2032,

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simulations expect up to 20 million meteors

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per hour to hit our atmosphere, at least on

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the leading edge of the planet. Most of them

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would have naked eye visibility, including

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some 100 to 400 fireballs per hour.

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Anna: But there is a downside to all of this that

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400 kilogrammes of meteors has to land

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somewhere, and it looks like the crosshairs

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00:18:10.750 --> 00:18:13.590
fall squarely on South America, North Africa

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and the Arabian Peninsula. A few kilogrammes

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00:18:16.560 --> 00:18:18.840
of space rock falling on Dubai could

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certainly cause some damage.

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Avery: Perhaps more dangerous is the risk of

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satellite mega constellations that play such

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an important role in our modern day

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navigation and Internet systems. Such an

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event could trigger Kessler Syndrome and

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bring the entire network down over the span

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of a few short years, while also locking us

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out from being able to get anything else

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safely into orbit for much longer.

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Anna: Due to the risks, some space agencies are

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already considering a deflection mission that

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would bump asteroid 2024 yr 4

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out of the way of a potential lunar

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collision. But that hasn't been set in stone

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yet. Neither has the actual impact itself,

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with only a 4% chance of happening.

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Avery: If the odds increase over the coming years,

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we as a species will have to decide whether

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it's worth it to deflect it or not. If we

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do, we might miss out on a whole bunch of

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cool science, but we also might save our

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entire orbital infrastructure and the few

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lives directly to boot.

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Anna: And that wraps up today's episode of

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Astronomy Daily. From Mercury's surprising

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activity to a possible lunar impact in our

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00:19:22.150 --> 00:19:25.070
future, space continues to surprise and

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amaze us.

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Avery: Thanks for joining us today. For more space

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news and to explore our archive of episodes,

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visit our website@astronomydaily.IO.

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00:19:33.950 --> 00:19:35.710
you can also find us on social media,

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00:19:35.870 --> 00:19:38.600
AstroDaily Pod on X, Facebook,

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00:19:38.840 --> 00:19:40.280
Instagram and YouTube.

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Anna: If you enjoyed today's show, please subscribe

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00:19:42.520 --> 00:19:44.680
on your favourite podcast platform and leave

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00:19:44.680 --> 00:19:46.960
us a review. It really helps other space

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00:19:46.960 --> 00:19:49.720
enthusiasts find us. Until next time, keep

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looking up clear skies everyone.

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Astronomy Day

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00:20:03.480 --> 00:20:04.040
storeys

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00:20:06.630 --> 00:20:06.870
love.