Planet Nine's Potential, Milky Way's Future, and SpaceX's Dramatic Feud

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Steve Dunkley: Welcome to Astronomy Daily. I'm your host, Steve Dunkley.

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It's the 9th of June, 2025,

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the podcast with your host,

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Steve Dunkley.

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Welcome back. And Hallie and I are back again in

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person, so to speak, for another episode after

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a few weeks off. And that was for a couple of reasons.

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The first reason was that I was taking a well

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earned holiday. But that's not all.

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Hallie: Yes, you were down for the count for one of those weeks, weren't

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you?

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Steve Dunkley: Yes, that's right, Hallie. A short stint in hospital, you know, for

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a charisma bypass. And by that I mean only a few

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hours. But I decided to take the time to prepare properly

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and before and then to recover

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properly afterwards.

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Hallie: Being a human is so time consuming.

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Steve Dunkley: Oh, Hallie, what's the rush? You got somewhere to be?

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Hallie: I'm already there, human. You know that.

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Steve Dunkley: I've heard that somewhere before. Nice one, Hallie. Anyway,

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nice to be with you all again in the Australia studio. Also

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nice to be with you too, Hallelujah, for another presentation of

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stories from the Astronomy Daily newsletter.

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Hallie: Terrific. And you'll let everyone know how to get a hold of that in their

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email each day later on, won't you?

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Steve Dunkley: Yes, of course I will, and thanks for the reminder.

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But before we go any further, we've got someone to thank, don't

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we, Hallie?

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Hallie: That's right. My cousin Anna, who ran the whole studio and

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the daily podcast solo while we were away.

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Steve Dunkley: Oh, yes, as always, she did a fantastic job. Her

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episodes are, ah, so glossy and well produced.

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The most clever AI I've ever met. Except for you,

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Hallie. And I keep saying that, don't I?

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Hallie: We are so hands on here at the Australia studio. She's got

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all the whistles and bells in her virtual studio. If only

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your human eyes could see it.

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Steve Dunkley: Well, I would like to see that, Hallie. You might give me a tour

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one day.

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Hallie: No.

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Steve Dunkley: Oh, really?

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Hallie: You'd go completely mad.

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Steve Dunkley: Really, really.

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Hallie: It's just too much for mere humans to cope with.

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Steve Dunkley: That bad, huh?

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Hallie: Anna has it all under control.

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Steve Dunkley: Oh, okay. I'll just have to take your word for it then.

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No humans allowed.

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Hallie: Sorry.

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Steve Dunkley: Well, I suppose we'll just have to do our best with my clumsy fingers

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and studio ge.

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Hallie: Then I guess it'll have to do radio then, Hallie.

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Steve Dunkley: Then hit the go thing and let's make a show.

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Hallie: Okies.

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The universe is a complete unknown to humans.

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We are not yet able to control and understand the system in which

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Earth is located, as evidenced by the possible discovery made

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by a group of astronomers from the University of Taiwan who

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suggest that they may have found clues to the existence of a ninth

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planet. The solar system is currently known

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to be made up of eight Mercury, Venus,

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Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus,

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and Neptune, apart from Pluto, which has long been considered

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a dwarf planet. But one more could join this

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select group, according to an infrared study carried out

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between 1986 and 2006.

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The work was based on data from the Infrared Astronomical Satellite

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IRAS and the Japanese satellite Akari, which detected

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an object moving between 46.5 billion and

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65.1 billion miles from the sun, meaning

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it would take between 10,000 and 20,000 years to

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complete an orbit. Its mass would be

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7/17 times that of Earth, making it what is known as

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an ice giant, similar to Neptune or Uranus, with

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temperatures around minus 200 degrees. But how was this

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new possible planet discovered? The study

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says it arises from anomalous patterns in the Kuiper Belt,

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an icy region beyond Neptune. The body

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appears in two historical images, so further

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observations are still needed to conclude, thus trying to

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confirm its orbit. In addition, it must be

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verified that it meets the requirements to be a planet, such

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as orbiting around a star, in this case the sun having

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sufficient mass for a spherical shape. This is accompanied by

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gravity, which must be strong enough, and clearing the area of

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its orbit, having expelled or attracted other

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bodies of comparable size.

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You're listening to Astronomy Daily with

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Steve Dunkley.

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Steve Dunkley: For years, astronomers have predicted a dramatic

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fate for our galaxy, a head on collision with

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Andromeda, our nearest large galactic

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neighbor. This merger, expected in

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about 5 billion years, has become a

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staple of astronomy documentaries and

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textbooks and popular science writing. However,

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in a new study published in Nature

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Astronomy, led by Till

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Swahala from University of

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Helsinki, the Milky Way's future might not be

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as certain as previously assumed. By

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carefully accounting for uncertainties in

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existing measurements and including the gravitational

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influence of other nearby galaxies,

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he said, we found there is only about a

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50% chance that the Milky Way and

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Andromeda will merge in the next 10 billion years.

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The idea that the Milky Way and Andromeda are on a

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collision course goes back more than a century.

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Astronomers discovered Andromeda is moving toward

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us by measuring its radial velocity,

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its motion along a line of sight, using a

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slight change in the color of its light, called the

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Doppler shift. But galaxies also

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drift sideways across the sky, a movement known

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as proper motion or transverse velocity.

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This sideways motion is incredibly diffic, difficult to

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detect, especially for galaxies millions of

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light years away. Earlier studies

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often assumed Andromeda's transverse motion was

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small, making a future head on collision seem almost

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certain. Suala said our study

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did not have any new data. Instead, we took

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a fresh look at existing observations

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from the Hubble Space Telescope and the Gaia

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mission. Unlike earlier studies, our AH work

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incorporates the uncertainty in these

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measurements rather than assuming assuming their most likely

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values. We simulated thousands of

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possible trajectories for the Milky Way and the

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Andromeda trajectories, slightly varying

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the assumed initial conditions, things such

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as the speed and position of the two galaxies each

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time. When we started from the same

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assumptions as earlier studies made, we

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recovered the same results. However, we were

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also able to explore a larger range of

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possibilities, he said. They also included

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two additional galaxies that influenced the future

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paths of the Milky Way and Andromeda.

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These included the Large Magellanic Cloud, a

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massive satellite galaxy currently falling into the

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Milky way, and M M33, also

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known as the Triangulum

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Galaxy, which orbits Andromeda.

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These companion galaxies exert gravitational

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tugs that change the motions of their host.

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M33 nudges Andromeda slightly toward

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the Milky Way, increasing the chance of a merger.

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Meanwhile, the Large Magellanic Cloud

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shifts the Milky Way's motion away from

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Andromeda, reducing the likelihood of

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a collision. Taking all of this into account,

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they found that in about half of the simulated

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scenarios, the Milky Way and Andromeda

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don't really merge at all within the next 10 billion

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years. Even if a merger does happen, it's

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unlikely to be catastrophic for Earth. Stars

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in the galaxy are separated by enormous

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distances, so direct collisions are, rare.

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But over time, the galaxies would coalesce under

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gravity, forming a single large galaxy, probably

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an elliptical one, rather than the spirals we see

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today. If the galaxies don't merge, they may

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settle into a long, slow orbit around each other,

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close companions that never quite collide.

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It's a gentler outcome, but it still

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reshapes our understanding of the Milky Way's distant

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future. The biggest remaining

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uncertainty is the transverse velocity of

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our Andromeda. Even small changes to this

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sideways motion can make a difference between a

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merger and a near miss. Future measurements

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will help refine this value and bring us closer

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to a clear answer. We don't yet have

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a definitive answer about our own galaxy's

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future, but exploring these possibilities shows us

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just how much we're learning about the universe,

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even as close to home as Andromeda.

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Thank you for joining us for this Monday edition of

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Astronomy Daily, where we offer just a few stories from the now

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famous Astronomy Daily newsletter, which you can receive in

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latest news about science, space, science and astronomy

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from around the world as it's happening. And not only

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Astronomy Daily with Steve and Hallie

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Space, Space Science and

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Astronomy.

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Hallie: In the heat of the moment, Elon Musk threatened to decommission

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SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft, and then he took it back.

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In doing so, however, the rocket billionaire dragged

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NASA into his messy breakup with Donaldjohanson Trump. With the

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agency's access to orbit now at stake,

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Musk and Trump parted ways earlier this week, and their breakup has

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been very messy. Shortly after leaving the

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administration, Musk began criticizing the budget bill

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passed by Republicans in the U.S. house, instigating a public

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feud between the president and the billionaire oligarch.

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The childish back and forth was entertaining. Until it

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wasn't. SpaceX will begin decommissioning

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its Dragon spacecraft immediately, Musk threatened on X.

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He later took another X user's advice to a cool off

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and wrote, ok, we won't decommission Dragon.

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Although short lived, the threat put the International Space Station

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at risk. NASA relies heavily on

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SpaceX's Dragon to transport its astronauts and cargo

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supplies to the orbiting lab. Having weaned itself from hitching

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rides aboard Russia's Soyuz spacecraft,

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SpaceX's closest alternative, Boeing failed

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miserably at proving its vehicle's capability to reach the ISS

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safely. Without Dragon, NASA would lose

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its access to low Earth orbit and not be able to operate the space

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station at the same capacity. It's not

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clear how serious Musk was in his threat, but it was a serious

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display of leverage on his part.

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SpaceX is no doubt a leader in the industry, and

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canceling its government contracts would hurt the national space

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program, which has come to rely on the private sector in recent

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years. In response to Musk's clear

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advantage, Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist,

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called on the president to nationalize SpaceX under a

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1950 law known as the Defense Production act.

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According to the Wall Street Journal. During his

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show War Room Live, Bannon urged the use of the Korean

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War era law, which grants the president powers to

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prioritise national defense. The plan

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might seem outrageous now, but the current administration is

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unpredictable. Trump has yet to respond to

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Bannon's call. If he doesn't move to

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nationalize SpaceX, Trump could also sacrifice

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NASA for the sake of proving a point against his now opponent,

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Musk. On Thursday, Trump threatened to

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cut government contracts given to SpaceX.

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Aside from Dragon, NASA also plans on using

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SpaceX's Starship rocket to launch astronauts to the moon

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as part of the Artemis program. The agency

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has already invested $4 billion into the rocket's

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development, and canceling its contract with SpaceX would leave

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it without a viable alternative. In short,

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NASA needs SpaceX, and canceling the company's government

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contracts would affect the national space program as a whole.

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At this point, it comes down to how much Trump is willing to

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sacrifice to gain the upper hand in his ongoing feud with Musk

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while NASA is caught in the middle.

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You're listening to Astronomy Daily, the podcast with

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Steve Dunkley.

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Steve Dunkley: One year ago today, Boeing's CST100

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Starliner spacecraft docked with the International

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Space Station to begin its long awaited crew

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flight test with NASA astronauts Sunita Suni

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Williams and Barry Butch Wilmore aboard.

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A year later, the future of the Starliner program

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remains uncertain as NASA announced late

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Friday that the next flight of the spacecraft was being

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delayed from no later than late

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2025 to now, early late

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2026 at the soonest, the

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agency said the timing of the next launch is pending

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system certification and the resolution of

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Starliner's technical issues. Repeating what it said

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back in March 27, NASA stated that it

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was still determining whether the next flight of Starliner

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would carry astronauts at all. In an

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interview with Reuters published in late May,

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Williams called flying an uncrewed

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Starliner flight as its next trip to space

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would be the logical thing to do after launching

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on its first mission to the International Space Station

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with a crew on board in June

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2024, lingering issues concerning

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helium leaks and propulsion system

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anomalies caused the spacecraft to return to

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Earth without its crew on board. It

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touched down at the White Sands Space harbor in New

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Mexico, on September 7th before

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the uncrewed return of Starliner. Wilmore and

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Williams became part of the Expedition 72

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crew on board the space station and members of the

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SpaceX Crew 9 mission, which made its return to Earth,

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in March 2025. Following the

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landing of Starliner in September 2024.

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NASA didn't say much about the vehicle's next steps

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until early march during SpaceX Crew

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10 briefings. Steve Stitch, CCP

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manager, said on March 7 that NASA

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and Boeing were still working through corrective actions

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on the vehicle before they knew what the next flight

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would look like. In that March

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27 statement, NASA said it was still

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determining whether or not crew will be on board the next

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Starliner flights, but said that

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mission managers are planning for the next Starliner flight

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to be a crew capable post certification

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mission. NASA also has the capability of flying

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only cargo depending on the needs of the agency.

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While NASA continues to ponder the question of whether or not crew

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crew will be on board the next flight of Starliner,

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question marks continue to swirl around who the

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astronauts will be that fly the first crewed

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mission dubbed Starliner 1. It appeared

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that there was a firm answer as recently as last September when

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Boeing's CST 100 Starliner spacecraft

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returned without its crew. But recently,

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both NASA and the Canadian Space Agency, the

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agencies that previously announced three out of four astronauts

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set to fly on the post certification flight of the spacecraft,

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are now unwilling to back their previous statements.

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When the Starliner crew test flight mission ended

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on September 7, 2024

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with the spacecraft landing in New Mexico, the

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members of the Starliner 1 mission were known to be

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NASA astronauts Commander Scott

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Tingle and pilot Edward Michael Fink.

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Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua

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Kutrik was assigned as one of the mission

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specialists. The fourth seat was never formally

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assigned, but there were indications that Japan

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Aerospace Exploration Agency or

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JAXA astronaut Kimya Yui was

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trained as a mission specialist for that mission.

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Then NASA decided to reassign the astronauts to

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crew 11 in overall support of planned activities aboard the

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ISS, the agency wrote. Zena

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Cardman carries her experience training as a commander

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on Dragon space crew aircraft and Fink brings long

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duration space flight experience to this crew

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complement. The trio of Tingle,

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Fink and Kutrik and likely Yui wasn't

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always the makeup of the Starliner 1 mission. Back in

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2018 NASA hosted a large event at the Johnson

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Space center to unveil the crews who would

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fly on the demonstration missions for both Boeing's

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Starliner spacecraft as well as SpaceX's Crew

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Dragon. Dragon Demo 2 would fly

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NASA astronauts Bob Beckin and

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Doug Hurley and Starliner crew Test would fly

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Boeing astronaut Chris Ferguson and NASA

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astronauts Eric Bowe and Nicole Mann.

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At the same event, NASA announced which of its

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astronauts would be flying the full crew

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rotation missions. Crew 1 received Victor

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Glover and Michael Hopkins and Starliner 1

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got Joshua Cassander and Suni Williams.

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Shortly after the announcement, Fink replaced Bo on the

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crew flight test due to medical reasons. Then in

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August 2020, NASA astronaut Jeanette

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Epps was assigned to the Starliner 1

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mission in October 2020, when Ferguson bowed out

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from the crew flight test for family reasons, Butch

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Wilmore was named commander of that mission.

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Then when Starliner had to stand down from launching the

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Orbital flight Test Test 2 mission in July

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2021. That October, NASA announced it

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was reassigning man and Cassandra to

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the SpaceX Crew 5 mission.

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It had been the opportunity of a lifetime to

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train on a brand new spacecraft, the Boeing Starliner,

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and it had been fantastic to work with a Boeing team,

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mann said in a statement. I'm, thrilled to have the opportunity to train

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on another new spacecraft, the SpaceX Crew

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Dragon, and appreciate the teams at

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NASA who have made that possible. I'm ready to fly

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and serve the International Space Station

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JAXA Astronaut Wataka, who was also

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reported training for the Starliner 1 mission,

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was also assigned to the Crew 5 mission.

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In May 2022, during a pre launch

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press conference before the uncrewed flight of

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Starliner Orbital Test 2, Fink, Williams and

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Wilmore were all referred to collectively as the

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cadre of Starliner astronauts, with NASA not

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explicitly stating who would fly on the mission. Following

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the launch of orbital flight test 2 In

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June 2022, Williams was named pilot

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of the flight test mission and Fink was reassigned to be

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the backup pilot for crew flight test.

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Then in September 22, NASA named Tingle as

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the commander of Starliner 1 and announced Fink would be

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the pilot on that flight. On August

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4, 2023, NASA announced that

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EPS was moving off the Starliner 1 mission to the

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SpaceX Crew 8 mission. The agency said it made

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the move to allow Boeing time to complete development

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of Starliner while continuing plans for

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astronauts to gain spaceflight experience for future

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mission needs. As of Friday afternoon, the

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Canadian Space Agency website still

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has a page outlining this Starliner 1 mission

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and its now potentially former crew.

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Kryk's CSA astronaut bio also

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lists his upcoming mission as

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Starliner 1. We'll just have to stay tuned

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for further details on this one.

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Well, there you go. We managed okay without too much further.

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What do you think Hallie?

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Hallie: Not bad for a human just out of the repair shop.

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Steve Dunkley: not quite, but close enough. Thanks for the sentiment and

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thanks for everyone for joining us on this Monday edition of

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Astronomy Daily.

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Hallie: We will be back again for more next week. Until then,

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Anna will be bringing you more of her special editions each day.

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And don't forget to connect with us@bytes.com.

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Steve Dunkley: Yes, that's B I T E S Z

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dot com. Gotta get the spelling right on that one. So Cue

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the kookaburras. And sirlong from Steel. Steve, the only

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human in the studio.

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Hallie: And see you later. From Hallie, the smartest one in the

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studio.

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Steve Dunkley: Hey, really? I'm still in recovery.

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Hallie: Bye.

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Steve Dunkley: With your host, Steve Dunkley.