Artemis II's Historic Cargo, Orbital Debris Crisis, and AI Finds 7,000 New Worlds

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Anna: Welcome to Astronomy Daily. I'm Anna.

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Avery: And I'm, um, avery. It's Friday, January

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23rd, and we've got an amazing lineup of

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space stories to close out your week.

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Anna: We certainly do. Today we're exploring

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NASA's plans to send some very special

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keepsakes around the moon on Artemis 2.

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Blue Origin's latest new Glenn launch

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plans, and some m fascinating new research

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about where Earth's water really came from.

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Avery: Plus, we'll dive into a rather urgent warning

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about the increasing dangers of space space

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debris, uncover new insights about how

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supermassive black holes grew so quickly,

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and learn how AI Is helping scientists

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discover thousands of new exoplanets.

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Let's get started, avery.

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Anna: As Artemis 2 preparations continue at

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Kennedy Space Center, NASA has revealed

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something really special they'll be taking

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along for the ride. And it's not just the

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four astronauts.

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Avery: Oh, I love when missions carry meaningful

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items. What are they bringing?

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Anna: This is fascinating. The official flight kit

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includes a piece of fabric from the original

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1903 Wright Flyer. It's a

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tiny swatch just one inch square from the

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very first aircraft that made the powered

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flight at Kitty Hawk. What's even cooler is

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that this same piece already flew on the

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space shuttle discovery back in

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1985.

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Avery: So it's making its second journey to space.

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That's a beautiful connection between the

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beginning of powered flight and humanity's

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return to the moon. What else is in the

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flight kit?

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Anna: There's an American flag with an incredible

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history. It flew on the very first

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shuttle mission, STS1, and the

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final shuttle mission, STS135.

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It also went up on SpaceX's first crewed

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Dragonflight. Talk about bookending an era

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of spaceflight.

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Avery: That flag has seen some serious history. Is

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there anything connecting Artemis back to the

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Apollo program?

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Anna: Absolutely. They're flying a flag that was

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originally meant for Apollo 18, a

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mission that never happened. This will be its

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very first spaceflight, finally fulfilling

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its original destiny after all these years.

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There's also a photo negative from the Ranger

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7 mission, which was the US first

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spacecraft to successfully reach the lunar

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surface back in the 1960s.

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Avery: It's like they're weaving together the entire

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story of American exploration. And knowing

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NASA, I bet they're including the public

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somehow.

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Anna: Of course, an SD card carrying

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millions of names, including ours, from the

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send you'd name to space campaign will be

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aboard. NASA administrator Jared

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Isaacman put it beautifully when he said

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these artifacts reflect the long arc of

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American exploration and the generations of

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innovators who made this moment possible.

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With about 10 pounds of mementos in total,

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Artemis 2 will truly be carrying our, uh,

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collective history and dreams. Dreams Forward

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into the next chapter beyond Earth.

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Avery: What a perfect way to mark America's

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250th anniversary.

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Now, speaking of missions and launches, let's

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shift gears to Blue Origin and their New

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Glenn rocket.

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Anna: Blue Origin has announced their third New

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Glenn launch is scheduled for late February.

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And there's an interesting twist to this one.

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Avery: Let me guess. Everyone expected them to fly

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their Blue Moon lunar lander next, right?

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Anna: Exactly. But instead, they're launching a

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satellite for AST Space Mobile,

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making it the second commercial payload to

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fly on New Glenn. The blue moon mark one

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lander is currently being shipped to NASA's

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Johnson Space center for vacuum chamber

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testing. And they haven't announced a launch

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date for that mission yet.

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Avery: So what makes this particular launch notable?

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Anna: This will be the third New Glenn launch in

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just over a year, which is impressive

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considering the rockets spent a decade in

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development. But here's the really exciting

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part. They're reusing the booster from

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November's second flight. They successfully

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landed it on a drone ship in the Ocean, just

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like SpaceX does with Falcon 9.

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Avery: So this demonstrates their reusability

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program is working. That's crucial for

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reducing launch costs. What else is Blue

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Origin working on?

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Anna: They've got some ambitious plans. In

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November, they revealed a super heavy variant

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of New Glenn that will be taller than a

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Saturn V rocket on par with

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SpaceX's Starship. And just this week, they

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announced a satellite Internet constellation

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called Terrawave that they plan to start

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deploying in late 2027.

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Avery: February is shaping up to be a busy month for

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spaceflight. NASA might launch Artemis 2 as

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early as February 6th. SpaceX is testing

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the third version of Starship, and Crew 12 to

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the International Space Station is also

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scheduled.

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Speaking of busy orbital environments, that

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brings us to our next story about space

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debris.

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Anna: Avery, this next story is both

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fascinating and a bit alarming. A

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new study has introduced something called the

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crash clock. And according to their

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calculations, if satellite operators

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suddenly lost the ability to maneuver their

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spacecraft, we could see a catastrophic

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collision in just 5.5 days.

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Avery: Wait, 5.5 days? That's

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incredibly short. What's driving this?

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Anna: Megaconstellations. The researchers found

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that close approaches between satellites,

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defined as two satellites passing within

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1km of each other, now happen

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every 22 seconds across all low

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Earth orbit megaconstellations. For Starlink

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alone, It's once every 11 minutes. Each

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Starlink satellite performs an average of

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41 avoidance maneuvers per year.

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Avery: Those numbers are staggering, and you said

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5.5 days. I thought I'd heard this was

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originally 2.8 days.

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Anna: Good catch. The team updated their model

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based on community feedback. The original

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calculation was 2.8 days, but after

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incorporating expert input, they Revised it

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to 5.5 days for 2025 data.

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By comparison, back in 2018, before the

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mega Constellation era really took off, it

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would have taken 164 days before

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a collision.

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Avery: So we've gone from 164 days down

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to 5.5 days in just seven years.

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What could cause operators to lose control

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like that?

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Anna: Solar storms are the main threat. When a

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coronal mass ejection hits Earth, it heats up

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the upper atmosphere, creating more drag on

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satellites and making their trajectories

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harder to predict. During the Gannon storm in

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May 2024, over half of all

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satellites in low Earth orbit had to for

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repositioning maneuvers. More seriously,

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solar storms can knock out satellites,

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navigational and communication systems,

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leaving them unable to maneuver at all.

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Avery: And, um, solar storms don't give us much

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warning, do they?

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Anna: Typically just a day or two at most. The

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study found that within 24 hours of losing

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maneuvering capability, there's a 30% chance

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of a collision between tracked objects and a

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26% chance of a collision involving a, uh,

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Starlink satellite. Specifically, such

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collisions would be catastrophic, creating

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major debris generating events with high

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likelihood of secondary and tertiary

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collisions.

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Avery: That sounds like Kessler Syndrome, the

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cascade effect, where collisions create

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debris that causes more collisions.

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Anna: Exactly. Though the researchers want to be

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clear about something important, lead author

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Sarah Thiel emphasized, they're not saying

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Kessler Syndrome is days away. The crash

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clock only measures time to the first

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collision, not a runaway cascade.

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Bolkesler Syndrome would take decades or even

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centuries to develop. But the clock does show

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how reliant we are on errorless operations

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every single day.

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Avery: So it's more of a stress indicator for the

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orbital environment, Right.

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Anna: The team suggests the crash clock could

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serve as a key environmental indicator,

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similar to how we use carbon emissions

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metrics for climate change. They're calling

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for improved debris mitigation,

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coordinated traffic management, and stronger

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space weather resilience measures to protect

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the technology modern society depends on.

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Now let's shift from orbital concerns to

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lunar mysteries.

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Avery: For decades, Anna, uh, scientists have

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assumed that Earth's water was delivered by

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asteroids and comets during the Late heavy

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bombardment about 4 billion years ago. But

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new research from lunar samples is

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challenging that assumption.

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Anna: The Apollo samples are still teaching us new

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things after all these years. What did they

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find?

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Avery: Dr. Tony Gargano the Lunar and Planetary

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Institute led a team that analyzed lunar

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rocks and regolith using high precision

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triple oxygen isotopes. They found that

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meteorites could only have supplied a small

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fraction of Earth's water. Even by the most

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generous estimates, the lunar surface record

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sets a hard limit on volatile delivery.

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Anna: Why is the Moon such a good record keeper for

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this?

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Avery: On Earth, tectonic plates constantly renew

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the surface, erasing traces of ancient

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impacts. But the Moon is airless and hasn't

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had geological activity for billions of

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years. So its geological record since the

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Late Heavy Bombardment has been carefully

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preserved. It's like a cosmic history book

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that hasn't been edited.

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Anna: How did they approach the analysis

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differently from previous studies?

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Avery: Instead of focusing on metal loving elements

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like previous researchers, Gargano's team

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analyzed oxygen isotopes, which make up the

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largest mass fraction of rocks. The oxygen

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triple isotope signature can separate two

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things that are often confused in lunar

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the addition of impactor material and the

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effects of impact induced vaporization on

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isotopic composition.

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Anna: And what did the oxygen isotopes tell them?

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Avery: They found that at least 1% of the moon's

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mass consists of impact related material,

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likely from carbonaceous meteorites that

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partially vaporized on impact. From this,

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they calculated that only a tiny amount of

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water has been delivered to the Earth Moon

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system since the Late Heavy Bombardment

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compared to Earth's existing water.

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Anna: To put that in perspective, how much water

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does Earth have?

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Avery: Water covers over 71% of Earth's surface,

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but it only accounts for about

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0.023% of Earth's

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total mass. That still works out to roughly

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1.46 sextillion kilograms.

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That's 1.46 followed by 21

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zeros. So even a tiny fraction of that is

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significant.

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Anna: Co author Dr. Justin Simon from NASA

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summed it up. Well, the results don't say

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meteorites delivered no water, but they

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do make it very hard for late meteorite

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delivery delivery to be the dominant source

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of Earth's oceans.

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Avery: This has interesting implications for lunar

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exploration, doesn't it?

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Anna: Absolutely. While meteorites may have

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delivered only a tiny fraction of Earth's

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water, their contribution could be crucial

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for the Moon. Water ice in permanently

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shadowed regions is essential for

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establishing a sustained human presence,

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providing drinking water, irrigation,

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radiation shielding and the means to make

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rocket propellant. As the researchers noted,

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that small amount of water delivered by

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impacts could be the single most important

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factor enabling humanity's expansion

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into space.

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Avery: From water on the Moon to mysteries in the

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early universe, let's talk about supermassive

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black holes.

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Anna: How did black holes get so big so

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fast? That's been one of astronomy's great

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mysteries. Avery and researchers at Ireland's

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Maynooth University have found an answer.

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Avery: The James Webb Space Telescope has been

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finding these massive black holes in the

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early universe that shouldn't exist according

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to our previous models. Right?

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Anna: Exactly. These supermassive black

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holes existed just a few hundred million

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years after the Big Bang, and conventional

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theories said there wasn't enough time for

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them to grow so large. The Maynooth

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team, led by PhD candidate Daxel

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Mehta, used state of the art computer

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simulations to reveal what happened.

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Avery: Um, and what did they discover?

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Anna: The chaotic conditions in the early universe

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triggered these smaller black holes to

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undergo what they call a feeding frenzy,

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devouring material all around them. The

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dense, gas rich environments in early

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galaxies enabled something called Super

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Eddington accretion.

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Avery: Super Eddington accretion. That sounds

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intense. What is it?

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Anna: It's when a black hole eats matter

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faster than what's considered normal or safe.

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Normally, when matter falls into a black hole

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that quickly, it should blow the food away

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with radiation pressure. But somehow,

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in these early dense environments, the

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black holes kept eating anyway,

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growing incredibly fast into

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tens of thousands of times the mass of our

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Sun.

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Avery: So they found the missing link between the

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first stars and later supermassive black

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holes.

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Anna: Yes. Black holes come in two main

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seed. Light seeds, which start at only

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about 10 to a few hundred times the mass of

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our sun, and heavy seeds, which can start at,

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uh, up to 100,000 solar masses.

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Previously, astronomers thought you needed

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those rare heavy seeds to explain

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supermassive black holes. But this research

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shows that common light seed black holes

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can grow at extreme rates under the right

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conditions.

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Avery: Dr. John Regan from the team put it perfectly

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when he said heavy seeds are somewhat exotic

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and may need rare conditions to form. But

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their simulations show that garden variety

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stellar mass black holes can grow at extreme

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rates in the early universe.

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Anna: This has implications beyond just

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understanding the past. The research team

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noted that future gravitational wave

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observations from the Lisa mission, scheduled

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to launch in 2035, may be able to

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detect the mergers of these tiny, early,

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rapidly growing baby black holes.

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It's exciting to think we might actually

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observe these processes directly from black

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holes to exoplanets.

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Avery: Let's close with our final story about AI

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hunting for new worlds. Anna. Uh, we've found

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over 6,000 exoplanets so far, with more

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than half discovered using data from NASA's

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Kepler and Tess missions. But there's still a

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treasure trove of data waiting to be

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analyzed. And that's where artificial

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intelligence comes in.

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Anna: I remember hearing about exominer back in

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2021. Is that what this is about?

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Avery: Exactly. The team at NASA's Ames

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Research center created Exominer, which used

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AI to validate 370 new

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exoplanets from Kepler data. Now they've

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released Exominer, trained on both

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Kepler and TESS data, and the results are

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impressive.

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Anna: What can the new version do?

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Avery: On, um, its initial run of test data,

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Exominer identified

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7,000 targets as exoplanet candidates.

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These are signals that are likely to be

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planets but require follow up observations to

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confirm. The software sifts through

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observations of possible transits, those

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tiny dips in starlight when a planet passes

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in front of its host star and predicts which

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ones are real planets versus other phenomena

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like eclipsing binary stars.

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Anna: And this is all open source software?

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Avery: Yes. Anyone can download it from GitHub and

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use it to hunt for planets in TESS's growing

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public data archive. Kevin Murphy, NASA's

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chief science data Officer, emphasized that

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open source software like exominer

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accelerates scientific discovery. When

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researchers freely share their tools, it lets

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others replicate results and dig deeper into

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the data.

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Anna: What makes exominer

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particularly effective?

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Avery: Miguel Martinho, the co investigator,

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explains that when you have hundreds of

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thousands of signals like this, it's the

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ideal place to deploy deep learning

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technologies. Despite Kepler and TESS

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operating differently, TESS surveys nearly

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the whole sky looking for planets around

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nearby stars, while Kepler looked at a small

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patch of sky more deeply. The two missions

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produce compatible datasets. This allows

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exominer to train on both and

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deliver strong results.

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Anna: Project lead Hamed Valizadigan said it

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perfectly with not many resources, they can

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make a lot of returns. What's next for the

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program?

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Avery: The team is working on giving the model the

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ability to identify transit signals

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themselves from raw data, rather than just

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evaluating pre identified candidates and

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looking ahead. NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space

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Telescope will capture tens of thousands of

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exoplanet transits starting in a few years

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and all that data will be freely available

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too. The advances made with exominer could

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help hunt for planets in Roman data as well.

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Anna: Exoplanet scientist John Jenkins summed it

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up beautifully. Open source science and open

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source software are, uh, why the exoplanet

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field is advancing as quickly as it is. It's

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a great reminder of how collaboration and

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shared resources drive discovery.

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Avery: And that's all we have time for today. What a

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day of space news. Anna um, from legacy

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keepsakes heading to the moon to urgent

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warnings about orbital debris to AI

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discovering thousands of new.

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Anna: Worlds and everything in between. New

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insights about Earth's water, the rapid

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growth of supermassive black holes, and Blue

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Origin's expanding launch manifest. Space

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exploration continues to accelerate on

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multiple fronts.

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Avery: That's it for today's episode of Astronomy

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Daily. Thanks for joining us, and we'll see

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you tomorrow. Keep looking up.

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Anna: Clear skies, everyone.

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Avery: Astronomy Day

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00:17:51.890 --> 00:17:53.090
Stories we told.

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Anna: Love.

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Avery: Story Soul.