Aug. 17, 2021
CD35: bitcoin tuesday happy hour
EPISODE: 0.3.5
BLOCK: 696280
PRICE: 2228 sats per dollar
TOPICS: happy hour open ended discussion, narratives, supply chain issues, hyperinflation, stagflation, proof of work, mining with stranded energy, bitcoin legal tender law in el salvador
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38:43 - Bitcoin Smiles crowdfunding campaign for dental care in El Salvador
45:08 - Preparing for potential supply chain issues
46:20 - Supply chain issues and chip shortages
54:39 - Stagflation and its impact on investments
01:14:03 - Transition from analog age to digital age
02:15:48 - Government readiness for Bitcoin becoming legal tender
02:16:22 - Challenges with liquidity and swapping of dollars to Bitcoin
02:18:24 - Transition to non-custodial wallets and hardware wallets
02:28:37 - Predictions for the rollout of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador
WEBVTT
NOTE
Transcription provided by Podhome.fm
Created: 3/17/2024 4:31:10 PM
Duration: 8917.395
Channels: 1
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How's it going, MBK?
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Can't complain.
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I was busy setting this up. This is my first time hosting a Twitter space.
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I Wanna add cohost, so I think it has less chance of dropping.
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Okay. I'm assuming you're insinuating I should make you a cohost.
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No.
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I'm going to do that. Don't make me regret it.
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Do I wait to
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keep you in? It should've just popped up on your screen. Anyway, everyone listening,
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usually, we have Citadel dispatch on Tuesdays. Happy Bitcoin Tuesday to everybody.
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I wasn't able to put together a solid topic with guests this week.
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Seems a lot of people are on vacation.
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So instead of pushing a show
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that was not up to my standards, I decided that we would try this, a more open ended,
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happy hour style,
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discussion.
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It is being recorded.
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I am 99%
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sure the recording will work,
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but
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what's that saying? Every plan,
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doesn't survive initial contact, so we will see after this happens if it actually recorded. If it does, you may be listening to this on the Citadel dispatch
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podcast feed.
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I apologize if the audio quality is
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inferior to what you're used to. It is what it is.
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Feel free to skip this episode if you choose to.
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Next week, I already have a solid topic and guests lined up. We're gonna be talking about
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privacy focused, open source,
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routers,
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you know, that that Internet box you have in your house that is most likely spying on you and how you can choose to have a better replacement.
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So this is gonna be more open ended.
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Just kinda shoot the shit,
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and, you know, there's I feel like there's a lot of stuff that's been going on this week. I personally have been,
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I don't know. I've been feeling like my back's against the wall a little bit in terms of narrative shifts, and,
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I mean, we got that Space Force guy that's, like, tweeting out that Bitcoin is violence and that we're a cyber militia. So,
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personally, that's kind of where my head is at. But, I have a whole list of topics just in case the conversation gets stale. I'll be rotating people in and out on the speaker stage. Feel free to request
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speaker permission, and I will get you up here.
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I sent out a tweet.
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If you respond to that tweet with questions,
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we may or may not get to them,
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but we will try to get to them. Right now, all I got is Enrique up on the speaker stage
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of cold card. Repeat guest is still dispatch. How's it going, MBK?
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Good, man. The chainsaw noise stopped. Twelve trees down today.
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Twelve trees down today on your citadel?
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Yes.
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Impressive.
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That's all you?
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No. I,
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these these were over 70 foot.
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Like, I need I need to enlist people
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who, who know how not to die.
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We got Ben up on the stage.
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He just, recently
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had his most famous day, I would say, Ben. What what the fuck happened in 1971
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when trending? How was that?
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Dude, that's crazy, man. That's,
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bigger than I thought I was gonna we were just gonna try to, like, get Nick Carter in a in a room, and then Nick Carter had some other things he had to do. And then fucking Jack
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tweeted it, and then it was like,
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Lummis and,
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Davidson tweeted. Everybody tweeted. So I appreciate all the support. It was awesome to get the word out about I mean, not just WTO happened in 1971, but, like, you know, the whole concept itself. There's a lot of posts from from all over the space. It's great.
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Hey, Matt. I don't know. Did you did you miss we had a whole
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spaces, I think, yesterday or the day before,
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to discuss,
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Bitcoin's violence.
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Did you join in?
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No. I missed that. You want to,
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you wanna give, us a synopsis?
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Yeah.
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So so I don't think the guy is coming in bad faith.
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We we had it was kinda cool because I don't know if he's allowed to or not to join because of his job,
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but we had another guy who who's
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who seems to be qualified
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or well versed enough in the military sort of, speak,
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maneuver.
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What is it?
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Something maneuver. They have a term.
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And he was sort of, like, playing the the
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the that that Space Force guy for us, right,
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while we were trying to sort of discuss and understand this.
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And it's it's like,
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you know, when you were a hammer, everything is in hail. Right? So,
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the guy has written this piece,
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you know, with a military
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sort of audience. Right?
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It is unfortunate
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because it it does
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drag us into a narrative that we don't wanna be in because Bitcoin is peace, and we don't wanna be characterized as, like, a militia or anything like that because that ticker will be on CNN at some point.
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But
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I don't think the paper itself or that guy
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himself was trying to sort of,
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to to do this in bad faith. I think that's just you know, he wrote his thesis.
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It is fair logic in there,
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but, we do part ways when it comes to definitions
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and what is violence and the definition of violence outside of military
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maneuvering
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terminology.
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I think that's sort of, like, where the the water got muddy.
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I don't know. Like, I was kinda giving him the benefit of the doubt a little bit.
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So so we're talking about there's this guy on Space Force,
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the new arm of our US military, I guess, is part of the air force,
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who had, like, a LinkedIn post
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that was,
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instead of mutually assured destruction, Bitcoin is mutually assured preservation,
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which captured a lot of people's imaginations. They really liked it. Then he ended up on Twitter.
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He ended up going viral on Twitter. He got a ton of engagement.
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And then he started switching into this, like, Bitcoin is violence thing. And
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I thought, you know, maybe it was, like, too transparent
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to to be, like,
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some kind of attack or, you know, people are calling him a spook. He's literally a spook. Like, on his LinkedIn, his resume says spook.
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But then today, he tweeted out, you know, that
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Bitcoin's a
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decentralized cyber militia.
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And in America, you know, we have constitutional rights,
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but after the Patriot Act, it's become pretty much the de facto standard that,
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you know, if you label a group terrorists,
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then they no longer have any kind of real constitutional protections.
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And this is a narrative that I was already concerned about,
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and it kind of feels like
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it wouldn't be surprising if his next tweet after the cyber malicious stuff is like, oh, we're terrorists. And then, you know, and then you start seeing it on CNBC
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and all over mainstream media and stuff. And then before you know it, private Bitcoin usage
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starts getting hit really hard. So I it's a really slippery, dangerous slope,
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and the fact that anyone who calls them out, he blocks,
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isn't very,
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reassuring. You know? I
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I think he doesn't know how to use Twitter.
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Like, he he he's totally, like, new to Twitter.
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He's coming from a very sort of, like, specific way on relating to people and ideas.
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And and he doesn't know how to do Twitter.
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And, you know, like, when when when you mask the Hornets,
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the our,
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wrongly called cyber militia.
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We're not a militia. That is a joke. It's a joke. But we can't even joke about it. Like, it's something that we I I I think is beyond the level of a joke. Like, it is it is the narrative that we're gonna see play out. I mean, we we've seen it play out with encryption in the past. We've seen it play out with Tor in the past,
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that these are tools that are only used by criminals, that if you use it, it's suspicious behavior.
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And,
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I mean, we we're watching it play out with encryption right now. Like, they're already saying, like, the Taliban the the reason the Taliban was able to take over Afghanistan so quickly
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wasn't because of our incompetence.
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It was because WhatsApp. Yeah. Because WhatsApp's encrypted, and they were using encrypted messengers, and we need to be able to stop them from using that. Right?
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We got Dylan up on the stage. Dylan, I've been trying to get you on dispatch for a while. I'm looking forward to finally making that happen, but at least this is, like, an intermediary step.
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How's it going over there? 'Sup, man? Thanks for hanging up, man.
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Yeah. I mean, don't don't have, too much to add on the the Space Force guy. I mean, I've kinda gone back and forth on,
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his intentions. I think I think the like, we've been talking about like, Bitcoiners have been talking about, like, kinda like a global hash war for a while and, like,
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you know, the mutual preservation thing is kinda interesting.
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I think that has legs.
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But, yeah, the tone of his his tweets over the last,
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couple days has has taken a weird turn. But, I mean, definitely interesting to
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to kinda see that that narrative of, you know,
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Bitcoin as this
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strategic national,
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I don't know, just like, you know, kind of the game theory, the the global hash war that we've been talking about take hold. I don't know if it's like, I don't know if if I'm more on NVK side or your side, but, I I've been going back and forth on on his intentions.
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So so what if we pose it this way?
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I don't think we're gonna ever be able to avoid or shut down these conversations. Right? The bigger Bitcoin gets, the more the narrative is gonna get out of our hands. Right? We we can't baby it.
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So,
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we're gonna have to just sort of, like, meet them where they are.
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If he is,
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say, bad faith, right, he does have the DOD behind him, and he will find an audience that's much bigger than ours.
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So, if if we engage with him and we're able to
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to to counter his points in a way that's obvious that
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I just accidentally removed envy k from the speaker stage. I just invited him back up.
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Sorry, NVK.
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Yeah. You you you censored me. You're a spook.
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No. I mean, I don't think we should, like, quiet the conversation. I think open discussion's important. That's why we're having open discussion right now.
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I just think it's a very dangerous narrative that people need to be careful about because it's gonna be used against us by our enemies whether he's an enemy or not.
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I I agree, Matt. It's it's it's you know, we can always kinda say that, you know, you can use narratives and you can use analogies to kind of
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to try to, like, you know, make paint any picture. And I think in this case, it's just it's not a helpful picture that we're painting.
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You know, it's it's like trying to say that, you know, it's
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if you need water, right, to live, then then, like, water is violence. Right? Like, Bitcoin is a tool that we use and, you know, any tool can be
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used as a weapon, I suppose.
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So that's you know, it's like saying hammers or or weapons or whatever. Right? I don't know. I just think it's it's it's just this framing issue. It's simple framing, and I think we pushed back on that pretty well. And,
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I'm glad that we did.
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I I think he definitely got the message.
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And and to be fair, like, he didn't block a lot of people who are trying to engage. But, you know, when you have a 100 people
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sort of, like, at the same time making the same point at you and and you're not used to Twitter, you know, the block does become a useful
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tool.
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It is pretty funny, though, how the about face
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it's like he came in hot, and then everybody was like, get fucked, and he immediately switched his too.
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Yeah. I mean, people are not used at, like, how
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well prepared Bitcoiner Bitcoiners are to enter conversation.
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So, like, everybody is always underprepared
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when engaging with Bitcoiners,
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and that become very clear very fast.
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Chaz, we got you up on stage,
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Chaz of Lightning Junkies. Fantastic podcast. If you're not subscribed already, you should go subscribe to it in your favorite podcast app, ideally a podcasting 2.0 app,
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so you can stream stats to support his show.
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Do you have any opinion on this before we, move to more, positive topics?
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Yeah. Absolutely.
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So, like, I think I care less about the guy in particular. Like, I've been trying to
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not respond to any of those threads or even give a shit if I could help it.
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But, like,
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some some part of his
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thought process may or may not be valid.
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And I I I think I just posted my opinion of it and it's,
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you know, it's not violence. Bitcoin is not violence. It's resistance.
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So, like, the thing that I used to think about years ago was, you know, there might be some future where governments try to ban all, try to ban Bitcoin
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and try to really,
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you know, put the nails in
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and make it a really difficult adversarial environment.
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And so in that sense, like, if if you were going to really push for the disintermediation
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of the state, which I think some non zero percentage of people in this room kinda want that,
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like,
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you're going to use Bitcoin in resistance against the state.
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So he was calling, you know,
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like, that word. I can't remember what he said exactly,
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militia.
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So, like, I'm not sure that cyber
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militia.
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Decentralized
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cyber autonomous militia or decentralized autonomous cyber militia.
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There you go. I'm not sure if if that's valid or not exactly, but I don't think it's quote, unquote that far off.
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Like, if we were actually in that kind of
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adversarial scenario, I
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I don't like, you could call it something else, you know, Citadelf,
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defense crew, whatever.
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It's
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you're trying to reframe it, I guess, but it's
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is it really wrong or false in that context if we were to really go to that like because I think a lot of people in this room think about that scenario.
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So
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But it's
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like, the idea of Citadel theory is, and he specifically that triggered me a little bit too because, I mean, we are talk you know, this is if some people might be listening to this on the Citadel dispatch feed,
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but he called Citadel's
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military technology
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and violence
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as well. But the whole point of Citadel theory to me is this idea of peacefully opting out. You know, don't bother me. Let me have my localism. Let me have my, you know, local governance,
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that fits my needs best, and I won't bother you. It's a
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it's it's a
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you know, there there are definitely some revolutionary
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elements to Bitcoin, but it's a peaceful revolution while every single other alternative
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is a violent revolution. So
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But, Matt, like so I hate be the guy that sort of, like, defends some of his arguments. You're doing it. I know, but somebody has to, right, for being, like, not no. No. We have to. No. We have to be intellectually honest on this.
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So so there is a few things going on. Right?
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So I do agree with him that in a in a hyper Bitcoinized,
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Bitcoinized world or close to it,
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bitcoin is unavoidable.
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Right? So
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the being it's it's no longer voluntary,
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right, to to for a stage to to have Bitcoin.
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So in that sense, now it is forced.
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When you're talking about, like, military maneuvering
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and you're talking about, say,
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for example, having defending
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your your position, right, which is your peaceful Citadel.
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You you don't live in your peaceful Citadel in the absence of your environment. Right? You're still gonna need to trade or do something with with outside of your citadel because you're gonna need stuff.
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Right?
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So
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if the people around you don't agree with your choices, they may try to start you out, for example. Right? So then how you manage those relations,
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may incur some form of defense or whatever.
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So it it it's just it sucks that, like,
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the terminology
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that, you know, a military guy is gonna use
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is
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the term violence because they have a specific definition for that, which is not our sort of libertarian definition for that.
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So so I think it's more like talking past each other. Now if he's trying to inflame discussions about other things, I don't think so, but, you know, it's not impossible either.
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If if we have Bitcoiners
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if
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if if his goal was a
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so so this is the way I look at it. Like, if his goal was a way less effective meme attempt
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that Udi
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succeeded with. Right? Where Udi kept saying, good morning. Bitcoin's digital real estate. Right? And then
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Michael Sailor goes on CNBC, and he's like, Bitcoin's digital real estate,
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and
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I expect us to pay property taxes. And and to be fair, he came back afterwards and was like, no.
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You know? I I didn't mean property taxes. In that respect, I meant capital gains taxes. I didn't mean real estate property taxes.
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But that's neither here nor there. If that was the goal,
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he want the idea is to get a bunch of big corners, a subset of big corners to come out and be like, yeah. No. We're cyber hornets. We're the decentralized
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autonomous
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cyber militia.
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And then as as soon as you start getting that kind of rhetoric happening,
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then it's the easiest sell in the world to say, well, we should have a military response to this cyber militia.
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But those would you have some of the We saw I I didn't support necessarily
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the protests that happened in DC.
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Right? But
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they were peaceful protests.
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Nobody died. And within 2 or 3 days of narrative,
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it became the insurrection.
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Oh, for sure. And then they started hitting people as hard as possible. That you you you frame the narrative, and then as soon as you frame the narrative,
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you're able to
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get the general public,
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who are mostly not on our side to begin with,
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to completely go along with any kind of overbearing
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response that results from it. Well, you could say the same about a lot of the the the privacy focus tools
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and and and community where the rhetoric and the aesthetics
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is fairly aggressive towards the state.
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So you could say that you're essentially tipping the hand on the narrative
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for the state to have an excuse to come knocking on your door.
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Right? I I don't think we're gonna be able to escape that.
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Do we have a, a clear picture of what Space Jason's
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agenda?
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Space Jason.
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Yeah.
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What's Space Jason's agenda might be, or is it just the the general sense that because of his The
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the overt agenda
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was to get,
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the DOD
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to essentially engage in bitcoin by mining and holding.
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Like he stated, if I maybe I'm wrong, but I I'm almost certain he stated that that Dell was his goal. He wrote, a paper internally.
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He made a point
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so that the the DOD
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engages with Bitcoin,
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as a defense,
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it's another defense weapon.
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Got it. I just pulled Aaron up. Excuse me. Dieter, did you say that my freedom for privacy
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is a kind of
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violent,
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action against the government?
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No. Absolutely not. Like, see,
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like, don't don't get frisky.
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No. I'm I'm cool. I'm cool. Okay. So so that's that's not the point. Be cool, man. Cool. Is when we have,
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people
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adopting
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aesthetics,
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right, so, like, come and take it,
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or,
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you know, like, you you hear people saying, right, like, you know, mixing is a weapon against the state or shit like that. Right? It's not different than this kind of narrative that creates around this stuff. Right? So for example,
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one that I find kind of awesome in a way, like, lightning should have been called
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blackening
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or something. Right? It's almost like onion for for Bitcoin transactions.
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And, you know, calling it like me, making it, like, fun and cute and all this shit, right, like, removes a lot of
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that, that that narrative intensity
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from the people that will try to cling to that.
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So so so in that sense,
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you know, like, a lot of the
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the the the intensity and aggressiveness,
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from the the
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the the privacy
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aesthetics in Bitcoin,
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is very unhelpful.
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Okay. I get you. And you gotta you gotta understand that
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the cedar, the aesthetics that having a defense,
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which,
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might imply a kind of violence when you're defending.
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It's not even like there. It's like, as I said, only aesthetics.
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We don't need defense because
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Bitcoin is like the first thing that they cannot lean on you. And if they cannot lean on you,
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they cannot do do anything about it. So it's a 100% peaceful.
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It's the other way around. And his argument and his argument
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and his overuse of,
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like, that word shot that he used to basically say the the most basic stuff we're saying for years now.
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Like, it's completely a joke.
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And
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I really didn't even like make I didn't like have the time to make a meme for the guy, and he blocked me for no reason.
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Like, out of the blue.
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I was only critiquing his, like,
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one thread he did,
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saying Bitcoin is like a war.
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I don't know, man. Like,
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was there like
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a meeting to place and, like, with somebody decided,
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let's promote this guy and let's, like,
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let's have him take out the community and, like, he gets back to us. Like, because that that's how it feels to him. I think what happened is he has been posting on LinkedIn,
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like, some, you know,
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uninformed.
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It doesn't even matter. He's been posting on LinkedIn for years, apparently, trying to get the peep the world that he live that he lives and works in into Bitcoin.
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And then somebody from our community found some of those posts and promoted them on Twitter. He got a lot of engagement, and then he switched over to Twitter and started diving in and
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trying to,
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communicate the way and that he's used to doing in his
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existing See,
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you know, like so for example, we have this guy now called MetaTrinity
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tweeting at me with links to this chat. Right?
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Saying, you know, I'm all spin
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and blah blah blah. So this is this is why it's so hard when to engage,
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in in in, like, in conversation about this stuff. No, Trinity.
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This is not spin. We're just being intellectually honest.
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Coming First of all, 3 3 may be as a
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girl. Yeah. Okay. Do this.
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Yeah. Yeah.
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Hey, Dylan. I'd love to hear your thoughts. I mean, it just it seems like it appealed to a subset of Bitcoiners who are pro militia,
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pro self defense,
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you know, and they were like, yeah. Military firing
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rounds in a big air. Like, you know, this is and it just it and then it blew up because of their engagement, which is not representative of
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stable coins and a whole bunch of other things that they wouldn't agree with, but they're just like, yeah. Military, strength, power. You know, this is what Bitcoin's all about. It's muted. Is it just for me?
370
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It's just for you. I can hear Aaron.
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No. For me, it's done. Can you hear me? You, Aaron. Continue.
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Oh, yeah. Sure. That yeah. That was basically it. I just think it appealed to a subset, and then it blew up, and there should have been no reason. We can all forget about Space Force, Jason, and move on.
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It's Space Jason.
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Space Jason. One of his regarding one of his points. I mean, not not necessarily, like, himself, Jason, but,
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I think one of the interesting things he said that got a lot of engagement,
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was when he said the other day, he was like, Bitcoin is not consensual and not voluntary.
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And, like, I kind of, in a way, agree, but I disagree at the same time.
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You know, like, you have the option to adopt Bitcoin, but ultimately, your hand will be forced.
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You know, what what are your guys' thoughts on that?
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I mean, it's a different way of saying Bitcoin is inevitable.
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Right? Or everyone gets the price they deserve. I think as you just said as you said, it's a it's a reframing
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of a popular idiom.
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I haven't been super dialed in on the dialogue, to be honest, but my sense is it's like when you're a hammer, everything's a nail. And whether or not his intentions are
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neutral, good, or bad, he's just applying his lens, as ultimately we all do, to
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Bitcoin. And there's many different ways to view it, and we all have a slightly different way of articulating some of those ideas, but I don't disagree with the overall concept.
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I I found the framing,
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the kind of, like, war game framing of
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it to be problematic
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for the reasons I think, and I came into this conversation a little bit late, everyone else was talking about, which is that
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it creates a narrative that I think is probably bad for Bitcoin at this point in time,
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but I'm not actually sure.
392
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You know, Phee, you you said exactly what I said before you joined. Like, he's just using the terminology that he uses. Right?
393
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Okay, Trinity.
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Yes. Say your piece.
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Hello.
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Thank you for allowing me to speak.
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You know,
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I've just joined this community this year,
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and I've read a lot. I've listened to a lot of podcasts.
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I've heard a lot of different narratives, and Bitcoin can be so many things to so many people.
401
00:28:02.659 --> 00:28:03.159
However,
402
00:28:03.860 --> 00:28:09.000
you know, I woke up this morning and I looked on Twitter and saw that that I was now being,
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or Bitcoin was now being considered or or the people that run nodes,
404
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a cyber militia.
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Like, this this framing is detrimental
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to to the the network of individuals
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who are are not violent.
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And it's it can be said in a different way,
409
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and he has said it a different way and just say it in that way. Otherwise,
410
00:28:34.690 --> 00:28:41.914
you he'll continue to be mean to continue to because we have to to control the narrative, and we cannot be,
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you know,
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compared to a militia,
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a violent militia, or or anything of that sort. It it causes danger. It's it's a dangerous
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framing to have,
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and we didn't ask for it, and it's certainly not the same
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as other memes that you've mentioned. He hasn't done one meme. So it's just really out of context.
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And if you're talking to military people,
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framing something as a threat or as nonconsensual
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and all those things, I don't even see how that gets the DOD
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involved or or interested in it it's just kind of weird and strange, and I don't get it. And I don't wanna be associated with anything like that.
421
00:29:23.820 --> 00:29:29.040
Guys, I hate to I hate to say it to you, but the the narrative game, like, you know, we're probably in the,
422
00:29:29.420 --> 00:29:42.080
you know, first couple innings here of of, you know That's right. When the when this whole Ponzi economy explodes, you know, like, this this fiat lie that we've been living in, that's that's, you know, on the last on the last legs,
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you know, like, QE zero interest rate policy, this fake aid,
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when it all actually explodes or implodes or, you know, however you wanna think about it, the narrative is these greedy is going to be these greedy Bitcoin
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hoarders
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caused this.
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And and that's obviously And and they're gonna come in force. It's already coming in force.
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00:30:04.445 --> 00:30:13.265
But I agree. I agree. Yeah. And I don't understand why everybody is so fixated on this. Yeah. You can't control the you are not you're never gonna be your truth. Narrative. Money. Especially,
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Bitcoin is digital. Fuck you.
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Yep. Fuck you.
431
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Yeah. Like, I I mean,
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you know, that's what it is. And and, you know, as much as, like, you know, I'm pro beast person. Right? I hate war. But reality is,
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you know, Bitcoin is a weapon of mass ending the state. Right? It it is the literal
434
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Kryptonite for the state. Yeah. I mean Because states, modern states only survive by controlling the monetary system.
435
00:30:42.665 --> 00:30:48.000
Right? No. Like We we Come on. Wait. But I I also just wanna say,
436
00:30:48.380 --> 00:30:48.880
Trinity,
437
00:30:49.580 --> 00:31:14.220
you you said we. You use this this this idea of, like, we can't allow this narrative to be pushed. And I think it's really important to acknowledge Bitcoin is different things for different people, and there is no there is no, like, CEO of Bitcoin. There is no core group. There's all of us and those of us who have There's not? Maybe some of us Well well well, that's great. He can stop complaining about the memes then. He he's acting like he should be treated a certain way, and it's a bunch of different individuals.
438
00:31:14.605 --> 00:31:23.185
And he's whining and complaining about the memes. So he will continue to say Bitcoin is violence and all this stuff, and I'll continue to tweet that it's peace. It's fine.
439
00:31:24.000 --> 00:31:24.160
We can
440
00:31:24.960 --> 00:31:26.020
we we can't
441
00:31:26.960 --> 00:31:28.180
control the narratives
442
00:31:28.560 --> 00:31:29.060
that
443
00:31:30.560 --> 00:31:39.515
that we can't control narratives that our enemies make, but we can choose which narratives we prescribe to and which narratives we discuss and how we frame Bitcoin.
444
00:31:39.850 --> 00:31:44.510
And it's been a very it's been a very one second. It's been a very common tactic,
445
00:31:45.690 --> 00:31:52.585
specifically in the United States. We've seen it in the United States where you have so called domestic terrorist
446
00:31:52.885 --> 00:31:53.385
wings
447
00:31:53.685 --> 00:32:07.370
that get shut down and you find out afterwards that the FBI informant was the guy in there who radicalized them and changed the narrative that they prescribed to. So it's absolutely important that as a community, we push back against harmful narratives,
448
00:32:08.715 --> 00:32:11.534
regardless if we can technically control them or not.
449
00:32:12.794 --> 00:32:15.054
So so there's nothing wrong with with
450
00:32:16.270 --> 00:32:18.850
pushing against narratives. So I'm the first real estate.
451
00:32:20.190 --> 00:32:22.850
Literally, the day it said, Bitcoin is fuck you. But
452
00:32:23.495 --> 00:32:26.315
what what I'm trying to say is, like, if he's selling
453
00:32:26.615 --> 00:32:28.315
the the narrative, right,
454
00:32:29.015 --> 00:32:33.230
the audience to the narrative is not Bitcoin Twitter. Right?
455
00:32:34.090 --> 00:32:36.350
If I was a bad evil
456
00:32:36.730 --> 00:32:37.230
asshole
457
00:32:37.610 --> 00:32:42.965
trying to create a narrative about Bitcoiners, the Bitcoiners are terrorists or whatever, I would be
458
00:32:43.424 --> 00:32:48.005
the the narrative is the the audience is the the normies. Right?
459
00:32:48.625 --> 00:32:52.280
And it's Bitcoiners are not engaging in that space.
460
00:32:52.660 --> 00:32:58.920
Right? It's not like we're on CNN every day saying Bitcoin is peace or some shit like that. Right? So,
461
00:32:59.925 --> 00:33:04.985
if the if the goal here is to to change the narrative with
462
00:33:05.285 --> 00:33:05.945
a fact,
463
00:33:06.300 --> 00:33:10.240
Right? Not just on our echo chamber. Right? With a fact,
464
00:33:10.780 --> 00:33:13.040
then the engagement is outwards.
465
00:33:13.340 --> 00:33:18.034
Right? Just sort of trolling this guy to DAF. You'll probably quit Twitter,
466
00:33:18.735 --> 00:33:24.559
but it's not gonna make it stop. If anything, it's gonna make it go in some places where we have no visibility
467
00:33:25.179 --> 00:33:33.875
or we have essentially no soapbox to go on. Because we're already in those places. Yes. Bitcoiners are everywhere. You don't know who's who holds Bitcoin.
468
00:33:34.255 --> 00:33:35.155
And then also,
469
00:33:35.775 --> 00:33:39.760
if you worked for the state and Bitcoin is a weapon against the
470
00:33:40.320 --> 00:33:58.580
state, it wouldn't make sense that you will find that favorable. The state pays your bills, is putting your children through college, and you're telling me that that is a favorable framing of a technology, that I'm supposed to adopt the very technology that will obsolete me? I I don't see how his framing is even useful
471
00:33:59.120 --> 00:34:00.419
to regular people.
472
00:34:01.039 --> 00:34:02.820
The the framing So maybe
473
00:34:03.200 --> 00:34:04.659
The framing that
474
00:34:05.035 --> 00:34:13.375
that Bitcoin is used by criminals and is is only used by criminals is a framing that has existed from almost the beginning of Bitcoin,
475
00:34:14.119 --> 00:34:23.535
and it's been pushed back heavily to the point where we're starting to finally get past it in normie circles. But as far as, like, military circles, spook circles,
476
00:34:23.915 --> 00:34:27.695
I've heard it from friends and family that operate in those circles.
477
00:34:27.995 --> 00:34:36.240
They still very much believe that Bitcoin is a criminal activity. Bitcoin usage is is something that terrorists use, that money launderers use.
478
00:34:37.579 --> 00:34:38.480
So so
479
00:34:38.905 --> 00:34:42.925
regardless, those conversations are happening in the circles that we're not a part of.
480
00:34:43.385 --> 00:34:45.405
But we can con we we can
481
00:34:46.920 --> 00:34:52.940
push back in the circles that we are a part of and push back on the platforms and the audiences that we have
482
00:34:53.319 --> 00:34:54.619
to discuss Bitcoin
483
00:34:55.075 --> 00:34:58.375
as I believe Bitcoin really is, which is a tool for freedom
484
00:34:58.835 --> 00:35:04.820
and the ability for people to opt out of poorly managed economies and high surveillance states
485
00:35:05.540 --> 00:35:08.120
that that are are basically tracking everything we're doing.
486
00:35:08.580 --> 00:35:13.720
Yeah. I totally agree that I I think it's just that there's a lot more nuance here.
487
00:35:14.125 --> 00:35:19.265
It's not black and white. Right? There is people in government that want to make government smaller.
488
00:35:20.365 --> 00:35:21.105
The military,
489
00:35:21.885 --> 00:35:22.705
it's not
490
00:35:23.130 --> 00:35:25.550
a lot of times, it's not the military complex.
491
00:35:26.170 --> 00:35:27.630
There's different people there.
492
00:35:29.050 --> 00:35:29.550
And
493
00:35:31.075 --> 00:35:31.575
when
494
00:35:32.515 --> 00:35:36.375
when we just shut down conversation, we're not being useful.
495
00:35:36.755 --> 00:35:41.089
We're not engaging. We're not sort of clearing out for the people who are watching
496
00:35:41.789 --> 00:35:42.450
the conversation.
497
00:35:42.990 --> 00:35:48.289
So if anything, it's actually kinda good that people see this guy being sort of, like, questioned
498
00:35:48.845 --> 00:35:49.665
and have to engage
499
00:35:50.205 --> 00:35:52.865
and being wrong and stuff. So that really actually helps.
500
00:35:54.445 --> 00:35:54.945
And,
501
00:35:55.565 --> 00:35:56.705
you know, you can't
502
00:35:57.100 --> 00:35:58.240
deny that, like,
503
00:35:58.700 --> 00:35:59.600
you know, Bitcoin
504
00:36:00.380 --> 00:36:00.780
if you
505
00:36:01.500 --> 00:36:15.339
if your job depends on something, right, you're not gonna learn the thing that makes your job go away. So you could, you know, they could actually qualify Bitcoin as the thing that ends their thing. So it's violent towards damn and their means. Right?
506
00:36:16.520 --> 00:36:23.339
It it it's just that, like, I I don't like black and white conversations. Like, it's like it it makes us all look dumb.
507
00:36:23.665 --> 00:36:26.244
Well, you know, this isn't a black and white conversation.
508
00:36:29.505 --> 00:36:33.470
Aaron, you were gonna say something a second ago. No. I mean, this is just a a minor
509
00:36:33.770 --> 00:36:41.435
skirmish, apparently just for aerosol. I mean, we've seen Bitcoin be framed as a Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin is Chinese. Bitcoin is used by criminals.
510
00:36:42.375 --> 00:36:42.875
Bitcoin
511
00:36:43.255 --> 00:36:45.115
is for money launderers. Bitcoin
512
00:36:45.415 --> 00:36:46.795
is torching the environment.
513
00:36:47.095 --> 00:36:51.330
It's just gonna be always another narrative, and we've seen that when the buyer bill,
514
00:36:51.790 --> 00:36:58.690
the, I mean, the amount of framing of Bitcoin as, you know, Satoshi's private money, as a wildcat banking system,
515
00:36:59.424 --> 00:37:00.805
as in the many enhanced,
516
00:37:01.744 --> 00:37:09.630
currencies that need to be curtailed. It's always going to be some narrative thrown at describing the industry in a way that favors the powerful,
517
00:37:10.010 --> 00:37:10.670
the incumbents.
518
00:37:11.290 --> 00:37:15.070
And so, you know, there's kind of a there's an opportunity for
519
00:37:15.575 --> 00:37:19.275
if anyone wants to kind of come up with a frame that's much more positive.
520
00:37:19.655 --> 00:37:23.915
I mean, we've seen, you know, Dorsey try this, Bitcoin is world peace. We've seen,
521
00:37:24.520 --> 00:37:47.599
to have fun staying poor meme circulate widely. People don't quite understand that. There's, you know, there's an opportunity to frame it in the way that a Bitcoiner wants to frame it rather than going on the defensive always. I think I'm not sure what that frame is, but I think there's an opportunity out there for Bitcoin to come up with the way that it actually should be understood. You know, digital gold works for a while, but it's not quite there. Real estate obviously was a catastrophe.
522
00:37:48.059 --> 00:37:51.680
There's something out there that someone needs to come up with if they'd like to.
523
00:37:54.775 --> 00:37:57.035
All set. Digital real estate was a catastrophe.
524
00:37:58.135 --> 00:38:00.070
Aaron, I think you've wrapped up that,
525
00:38:00.550 --> 00:38:01.350
subject pretty well.
526
00:38:03.110 --> 00:38:06.470
I think, you know, we spent the last half an hour talking about,
527
00:38:06.790 --> 00:38:07.610
space JSON.
528
00:38:08.945 --> 00:38:11.685
It's probably best to move on to another topic.
529
00:38:12.225 --> 00:38:13.525
We recently had,
530
00:38:15.240 --> 00:38:18.060
BTC pay server release this new,
531
00:38:19.000 --> 00:38:19.500
crowdfunding
532
00:38:19.800 --> 00:38:20.300
campaign
533
00:38:21.320 --> 00:38:22.460
to provide
534
00:38:22.760 --> 00:38:24.380
dental care to poor
535
00:38:24.715 --> 00:38:25.215
Salvadorians,
536
00:38:26.315 --> 00:38:35.310
bitcoin smiles dot org. I don't know if there's much to discuss there, but, if you're listening to this and you have some extra stats, you should consider donating.
537
00:38:39.210 --> 00:38:40.990
I've got an idea for a new topic.
538
00:38:41.450 --> 00:38:42.110
It does.
539
00:38:43.125 --> 00:38:44.585
So earlier this morning,
540
00:38:44.885 --> 00:38:47.465
MBK put out a tweet, or I think he just left,
541
00:38:48.485 --> 00:38:53.359
talking about foreseeing a major supply chain issue coming down the pike again.
542
00:38:54.380 --> 00:38:56.160
I was wondering if we could discuss
543
00:38:56.965 --> 00:38:59.785
what are some potential ways to prepare for something like that,
544
00:39:00.245 --> 00:39:04.500
and and sort of defend yourself from, you know, any issues that might come up in your own life.
545
00:39:05.700 --> 00:39:06.920
Oh, that's a great topic.
546
00:39:08.420 --> 00:39:14.040
Hey. Sorry. I had to quit and come back. Otherwise, I couldn't hear Aaron. Aaron, I pretty much missed
547
00:39:14.695 --> 00:39:21.995
90% of what you said, but I probably agree with it. We changed that. No no worries. Enrique, we've moved on to supply chain issues.
548
00:39:22.490 --> 00:39:24.670
And, we had we had Nick Ward,
549
00:39:25.050 --> 00:39:27.870
on the speaker stage. I think it's the first words he said,
550
00:39:28.890 --> 00:39:35.645
but I love Nick. He's a good friend, and he wants to talk about supply chain issues and how we can prepare for potential issues there.
551
00:39:36.265 --> 00:39:36.765
So
552
00:39:37.279 --> 00:39:43.700
I was talking about supply chain issues actually on the Bitcoin summer thing with the bull Bitcoin guys
553
00:39:44.000 --> 00:39:45.140
for a moment there.
554
00:39:45.440 --> 00:39:45.940
And
555
00:39:47.224 --> 00:39:49.005
so so through my vines,
556
00:39:49.385 --> 00:39:51.244
right, of of, like,
557
00:39:52.424 --> 00:39:52.924
just
558
00:39:53.520 --> 00:39:59.860
sourcing parts for things we wanna make in the future because just how we develop products is bottom up as opposed to,
559
00:40:00.320 --> 00:40:01.060
top down,
560
00:40:01.935 --> 00:40:08.115
which is very similar to so okay. I guess let me give you a little primer here so people understand. So
561
00:40:08.970 --> 00:40:12.670
when you when you work in a in a r and d heavy company,
562
00:40:13.130 --> 00:40:13.630
right,
563
00:40:15.290 --> 00:40:15.790
chemistry
564
00:40:16.250 --> 00:40:19.535
engineering company or a big computer manufacturer
565
00:40:19.915 --> 00:40:20.415
company.
566
00:40:21.115 --> 00:40:22.895
You pick your parts first,
567
00:40:23.755 --> 00:40:27.130
and then you build a product from there up. Right?
568
00:40:27.450 --> 00:40:30.029
When you when you were in a more sort of, like,
569
00:40:30.809 --> 00:40:33.789
like, amateur, not not in an offensive way,
570
00:40:36.420 --> 00:40:36.755
shop,
571
00:40:37.634 --> 00:40:38.295
you normally
572
00:40:38.755 --> 00:40:40.375
start with a dev board
573
00:40:40.755 --> 00:40:43.335
or you start with, like, something that already exists,
574
00:40:43.795 --> 00:40:45.335
and then you build the product
575
00:40:47.270 --> 00:40:52.170
after you had that. You either redo it or you sort of build from that. Right?
576
00:40:53.674 --> 00:41:01.295
But when you're dealing with with, like, lower level parts and sort of trying to source them, like, years in advance before building the product,
577
00:41:02.599 --> 00:41:05.819
you sort of get more in touch with the with the distributors
578
00:41:06.200 --> 00:41:08.059
that that deal with, like, carmakers
579
00:41:08.440 --> 00:41:10.059
or things like that. Right?
580
00:41:10.635 --> 00:41:17.455
And and you get a little bit of a better scoop on what's going on. Right? And it's an absolute cluster fuck.
581
00:41:19.740 --> 00:41:22.160
We I mean, we're we're talking about, like, you know,
582
00:41:22.619 --> 00:41:24.800
manufacturers that that have pool
583
00:41:25.325 --> 00:41:26.224
with the suppliers
584
00:41:26.605 --> 00:41:28.385
are are forcing their hands
585
00:41:28.765 --> 00:41:30.385
so that they can hoard parts,
586
00:41:31.565 --> 00:41:34.865
and then there is subassembly issues. Right? So, for example,
587
00:41:35.870 --> 00:41:39.890
say say you make a car engine. Right? There is another
588
00:41:40.830 --> 00:41:45.125
1,000 manufacturers involving in making that car engine. Right?
589
00:41:46.145 --> 00:41:48.724
And then there is other 1,000 manufacturers
590
00:41:49.105 --> 00:41:55.119
involved in making parts of the part of the car engine. Right? Supply chains,
591
00:41:56.460 --> 00:42:00.960
when they work and the way they're optimized nowadays is quite amazing. Right?
592
00:42:01.825 --> 00:42:02.325
But,
593
00:42:03.985 --> 00:42:05.765
when when they stop working,
594
00:42:06.145 --> 00:42:07.845
things get very complicated
595
00:42:08.145 --> 00:42:09.525
because the risk
596
00:42:11.360 --> 00:42:15.060
due to sort of like a domino effect is very high. So for example,
597
00:42:15.760 --> 00:42:16.740
few years ago,
598
00:42:18.240 --> 00:42:19.060
hard drives
599
00:42:19.865 --> 00:42:20.365
went
600
00:42:20.665 --> 00:42:23.725
on on a huge supply chain shock. Right?
601
00:42:24.105 --> 00:42:32.370
So data centers couldn't buy the thousands and thousands of hard drives they buy because hard drives were either unavailable for purchase or were too expensive.
602
00:42:32.830 --> 00:42:33.890
And all because
603
00:42:34.350 --> 00:42:35.970
a spring factory,
604
00:42:36.385 --> 00:42:39.605
okay, that makes the hard drive very precise springs
605
00:42:40.225 --> 00:42:43.280
was, I think, flooded in the Philippines or something like that.
606
00:42:43.680 --> 00:42:53.685
So just just so you see, right, that, like, you have a spring factory that then ships the part to whoever to then make the thing, that then makes the bigger thing.
607
00:42:55.585 --> 00:42:57.125
It's very, very fragile.
608
00:42:57.665 --> 00:42:58.165
So,
609
00:42:58.705 --> 00:43:01.045
what we have now is we have,
610
00:43:01.609 --> 00:43:02.349
the COVID,
611
00:43:03.770 --> 00:43:04.430
sort of,
612
00:43:05.210 --> 00:43:05.710
over,
613
00:43:06.490 --> 00:43:06.990
oversupply
614
00:43:07.369 --> 00:43:08.270
sorry, over,
615
00:43:09.065 --> 00:43:12.925
over demand. Right? So people are bored at home buying a bunch of shit.
616
00:43:13.545 --> 00:43:16.045
And then you have people who wouldn't normally have money
617
00:43:16.380 --> 00:43:18.480
getting a check to buy more shit,
618
00:43:19.180 --> 00:43:20.400
and then you have
619
00:43:20.779 --> 00:43:22.000
supply chain disruptions
620
00:43:22.940 --> 00:43:23.099
from,
621
00:43:24.694 --> 00:43:26.635
from COVID issues around,
622
00:43:27.335 --> 00:43:29.595
shipping and warehousing or all the
623
00:43:33.280 --> 00:43:36.180
have the fact that, like, all Hong all Chinese
624
00:43:36.560 --> 00:43:39.060
factories banking Hong Kong now
625
00:43:39.440 --> 00:43:40.580
getting screwed.
626
00:43:41.585 --> 00:43:44.325
So they're gonna have to rework how they do their economics.
627
00:43:45.184 --> 00:43:49.684
And then we now have the threat of China maybe taking over Taiwan where TSMC
628
00:43:50.410 --> 00:43:54.270
is, where essentially everything that you use in your life
629
00:43:54.970 --> 00:43:56.349
has a chip from there,
630
00:43:56.650 --> 00:43:58.750
at least 1, if not all of them.
631
00:43:59.765 --> 00:44:02.984
So so we are at some serious risk. And Taiwan is fucked.
632
00:44:04.964 --> 00:44:11.120
Yeah. It's just we don't know if the boots are gonna go on the ground, if they're gonna go over TSMC.
633
00:44:11.660 --> 00:44:16.565
We don't know what's gonna happen. And contrary to what, like, politicians or people huffing,
634
00:44:16.865 --> 00:44:17.925
whatever they are,
635
00:44:18.865 --> 00:44:20.645
say, you can't just turn
636
00:44:21.210 --> 00:44:28.430
the key and have a fab of that capacity anywhere else in the world. It's not like that. Right? This is the indicate.
637
00:44:28.734 --> 00:44:37.395
I think you agree with Matt though that Taiwan is ultimately fucked. Right? Like, China is going to do something. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's happening. We we know that, but but the thing is
638
00:44:38.490 --> 00:44:39.869
it's not in their interest
639
00:44:40.650 --> 00:44:42.910
that as as as I see. Right?
640
00:44:43.210 --> 00:44:45.790
Like, who knows? Maybe he's like that, Yongle.
641
00:44:46.535 --> 00:44:52.234
Maybe z is like Yongle, and he's gonna burn his fleet because he doesn't want anybody to go out of China. Right?
642
00:44:52.775 --> 00:44:58.740
No. They're gonna do, like, they're gonna do the Hong Kong strategy. They're gonna take it all over with no shots fired.
643
00:44:59.839 --> 00:45:07.204
Yeah. I Oh, no. I I know. Okay. But that that affects the people. Right? I'm not sure if it affects the support team. The lack of the elastic because February.
644
00:45:08.145 --> 00:45:11.605
We yeah. We don't know if they're gonna, like,
645
00:45:12.119 --> 00:45:13.180
hinder TSMC
646
00:45:13.560 --> 00:45:16.540
because remember, right, like, China is an export nation.
647
00:45:17.000 --> 00:45:21.420
Right? So if they they fuck supply chains, they they will get screwed too.
648
00:45:21.785 --> 00:45:22.845
So it is tricky.
649
00:45:24.665 --> 00:45:26.765
Yeah. They'll they'll maneuver the situation.
650
00:45:27.705 --> 00:45:31.325
Well, yeah, the the people are screwed, but also it does create, as you were just acknowledging,
651
00:45:31.770 --> 00:45:36.910
a huge issue for the rest of the world. As you said, you can't just, like, spin up a,
652
00:45:37.530 --> 00:45:38.910
a 5 and 7 nanometer,
653
00:45:39.450 --> 00:45:40.910
chip fab in
654
00:45:41.385 --> 00:45:49.165
6 months or a year. My understanding is it takes, like, 2 to 3 years to actually build a to get a chip fab in place and up to full production.
655
00:45:49.490 --> 00:45:52.710
And that's Absolutely not. It takes it takes a decade or 2.
656
00:45:53.170 --> 00:45:56.549
Holy fuck. Are you serious? Yeah. It takes like a Yeah. It will take a couple decades.
657
00:45:57.105 --> 00:46:02.964
Holy shit. It is even even worse. So about fabs. Okay. Just just for perspective. Okay? Fabs
658
00:46:03.424 --> 00:46:03.800
are
659
00:46:04.360 --> 00:46:06.620
the the pinnacle of human engineering.
660
00:46:07.080 --> 00:46:12.780
Yeah. Okay? Like, there is nothing that gets close to that by by, like, a factor of a1000.
661
00:46:13.080 --> 00:46:16.924
Okay? Putting people on space is a joke comparing to making chips.
662
00:46:17.865 --> 00:46:25.630
And It's also the most capital intensive production process Yeah. In terms of research and development. You you burn cash. And and then there is, like, the level
663
00:46:25.930 --> 00:46:26.830
of, like,
664
00:46:27.210 --> 00:46:36.285
all the chemicals you need around that stuff, all the like, everything around it. Like, North America doesn't have the engineers for that, doesn't have the infrastructure for that.
665
00:46:36.665 --> 00:46:42.720
Right? So you can't just turn this shit on. So when they made that announcement, I can't remember which fab, maybe a Samsung or somebody
666
00:46:43.180 --> 00:46:53.585
wanted to open a fab in North America. I mean, they can do it, but there's not gonna be any reasonable capacity even close to what we're talking about here, and and it's still gonna take at least a decade.
667
00:46:53.885 --> 00:47:06.760
Yeah. I think I think So what is gonna happen? Years to ONSAV and into Texas, but they probably will understand the fact that they might fuck. But it's I had no idea it was 5 to 10 years. That's crazy. I mean, we're It's more like that to 100. You know, we saw this with,
668
00:47:07.080 --> 00:47:09.260
uranium. We saw this with shipping freights,
669
00:47:09.605 --> 00:47:19.550
you know, containers going 10 x in price within a few months of the virus. I mean, these supply shortages happen all the time, and, obviously, right now, it's happening with chips. Problem is, obviously, underinvestment
670
00:47:19.930 --> 00:47:28.635
on you know, there's no way to spin up these facilities within anything less than 5 years no matter how much money you throw at it. So, yeah, I see what envy is.
671
00:47:29.015 --> 00:47:37.390
I mean, Aaron, imagine them just getting the EPA to be okay with, like, this is a very nasty process, by the way. Like like,
672
00:47:37.690 --> 00:47:48.325
just and the chemicals you need to work in the plant themselves, they need to be made somewhere. Are you gonna ship them from China? Because it's the only place that makes most of the crap that goes into the facility to begin with.
673
00:47:48.625 --> 00:48:18.845
Right? You you probably can't even open the refineries that you need to do that stuff in North America. You Time is time is back into It's not like Time is back into Bitcoin and, like, kind of monetary policy. Like, why does the US have no chip boundaries? Why are why are we importing everything we need from China and and Taiwan and all that? It's like, well, that's exactly Because China had no no environmental policies, like, extremely cheap labor. Well, yes. If that's the environment, it's cheaper. Exactly. Cheap. Right? Because of the tripping No. But it's not just cheap labor. I mean, you you
674
00:48:19.405 --> 00:48:23.905
you have to be fair to them, though. I mean, they have put in, like,
675
00:48:24.205 --> 00:48:27.505
50 years worth of people through engineering school.
676
00:48:28.200 --> 00:48:34.780
Right? They you lift your hand there as a factory saying, I wanna hire engineers. Right? Like, I mean,
677
00:48:35.935 --> 00:48:44.595
you have, like, a million of the best people in the world show up in line up in front of your factory, and a million people is nothing there. Right?
678
00:48:45.340 --> 00:48:45.840
So
679
00:48:46.700 --> 00:48:54.345
it's it's like it's like we we don't even have the human capital in North America to to get close to that. What's Let alone What's the Okay. So given
680
00:48:57.685 --> 00:48:58.825
Dollars. I have no idea.
681
00:48:59.445 --> 00:49:04.480
Yeah. Oh, okay. Point. Yeah. It's fucking dollars. Okay. Wait. So here's my question now. So we've established that,
682
00:49:05.260 --> 00:49:05.760
the
683
00:49:06.299 --> 00:49:06.960
chip fabrication
684
00:49:07.260 --> 00:49:11.520
is, a real problem and that China is definitely going to fuck with Taiwan.
685
00:49:11.885 --> 00:49:14.065
So what is the what do we think that the US's
686
00:49:14.605 --> 00:49:18.865
response to that is gonna be? Or how is that actually gonna play out on the world stage?
687
00:49:19.900 --> 00:49:22.560
Blowjobs. In February. I think you're right, Aaron.
688
00:49:23.980 --> 00:49:26.560
Yeah. There'll be a lots of those, but then after the blowjobs,
689
00:49:27.100 --> 00:49:27.920
how does
690
00:49:28.435 --> 00:49:39.230
I mean, China China When everybody's smoking cigarettes the sole what happens then? The sole the only source of so many things that we require. I mean, we saw it just during the pandemic. There is still provider PPE,
691
00:49:39.609 --> 00:49:40.109
Pharmaceuticals,
692
00:49:41.369 --> 00:49:45.390
raw materials. There are so many things that only China, supplies, on
693
00:49:45.690 --> 00:49:53.535
and on and on. So chips is just one of the other things they they own by way of owning TSMC in Taiwan, which they'll overtake after the Olympics sometime.
694
00:49:54.170 --> 00:49:59.150
So it's just gonna be these are many supply issues re relating with China. China,
695
00:49:59.610 --> 00:50:07.505
also is dependent on US dollar trade. I mean, almost everything they trade is US dollar denominated. So this is an inextricable relationship that we have with China.
696
00:50:07.885 --> 00:50:14.730
But as tensions mount, especially if they, you know, accelerate what they've done in Hong Kong and with Taiwan or anything
697
00:50:15.190 --> 00:50:26.655
else, we patrol the seas, which is required for them to do international trade anywhere. If we stop patrolling their ships, they wouldn't be able to do trade with anyone and their economy would collapse. Likewise, they hold a bunch of US dollar nominated debt.
698
00:50:27.150 --> 00:50:38.255
So they need the US dollar to you know, so there's a huge relationship of interconnectivity between United States and China. Chip is one thing. I think, MBK is getting at, you know, what China is doing regarding,
699
00:50:38.955 --> 00:50:40.895
mining and production of these machines.
700
00:50:41.435 --> 00:50:53.644
They they had this kind of vast solution with Bitcoin. It's banned. It's not banned. We own a bunch of it. We don't own a bunch of it. Now they took this crackdown in preparation for their CBDC launch in February, which is their main focus
701
00:50:53.944 --> 00:50:59.805
because they've kind of extracted all the money that they wanted to extract from Bitcoin, and now they wanna go on to, Remindi
702
00:51:00.380 --> 00:51:08.640
promotion with the CBD thing. So they're gonna promote that, but then they ban Bitcoin in advance of that to make sure that everyone who's left is a cooperating miner
703
00:51:09.025 --> 00:51:12.645
exporting their machines abroad, 15% of which went to the North America,
704
00:51:13.105 --> 00:51:17.365
most of which was just shuffled around within China, but a a little bit went to Kazakhstan,
705
00:51:18.059 --> 00:51:18.559
Kazakhstan,
706
00:51:19.099 --> 00:51:20.799
the various other, you know, Stans.
707
00:51:21.180 --> 00:51:31.755
And so they're just kind of positioning now for this new phase of Xi's 5 year plan, which is coming up when he's gonna assume he's gonna break his next election is when he's gonna break,
708
00:51:32.535 --> 00:51:42.070
the term that he's allowed to extend, and he's gonna essentially be emperor for life. And then he's gonna launch on his next 5 year plan, which is gonna be Digital Belt and Road, CBDC,
709
00:51:43.330 --> 00:51:49.515
Taiwan, Hong Kong, and whatever else he's gonna throw on to the 5 year plan. And Aaron, what what's kinda funny
710
00:51:49.895 --> 00:52:04.214
is that I you know, their original plan was to do all this with gold, but that didn't work out. These guys have been buying all the gold alongside. Right? Like, I mean, they were pulling out the gold, and then and then it was a flop. I mean, it's amazing that, like, they completely
711
00:52:04.515 --> 00:52:05.015
mishandled
712
00:52:05.395 --> 00:52:05.895
that.
713
00:52:06.515 --> 00:52:15.160
Yeah. It's incredible. I mean, they still own a bunch of gold. They've obviously not been telling us anything about how much they own, but they own a ton. So is Russia. So is a bunch of other things. But their their,
714
00:52:15.640 --> 00:52:23.165
ability to get this, you know, renminbi thing happening even in tiny countries, you know, like Uganda and and Nigeria and,
715
00:52:24.585 --> 00:52:26.205
Ecuador and Nicaragua,
716
00:52:26.585 --> 00:52:28.365
various small countries, Venezuela.
717
00:52:28.970 --> 00:52:33.390
It's been working. I mean, they have quite a bit of trade now going on in this little tiny,
718
00:52:33.930 --> 00:52:40.775
belt that they've established around the world. And once they can do this, hey. We have a digital renminbi, and it's easy to clear it, and you have final settlement.
719
00:52:41.235 --> 00:52:42.455
You know, it'll be
720
00:52:42.915 --> 00:52:54.990
something to to really watch, and they don't really care about Bitcoin anymore because they realize they don't control it. They thought originally they could, but they're realizing that they don't. So now, you know, it's it's pivot number 27 for Xi on Bitcoin.
721
00:52:55.595 --> 00:52:57.935
So if you if you're the US I'm sorry, Matt.
722
00:52:58.315 --> 00:52:59.295
Continue, Dylan.
723
00:53:00.075 --> 00:53:12.454
Yeah. So, I mean, geopolitically, if you're the US and you see all this and you have, like, all like, you have decades of structural imbalance because of right? Like, we're we're the world reserve currency. So we we're a twin deficit nation. We we export our dollars
724
00:53:12.755 --> 00:53:21.990
around the world. Like, that's our leading export. We have a current account deficit, and we run deficits. And then and, like, in a in a free market, if you're if you're running
725
00:53:22.290 --> 00:53:22.790
deficits,
726
00:53:23.330 --> 00:53:28.070
then you wouldn't you wouldn't have a current account deficit, meaning, like, you you export
727
00:53:28.450 --> 00:53:29.510
more than you import.
728
00:53:30.125 --> 00:53:39.839
We we import goods from around the world and basically exchange our paper. And so geopolitically for the US, Luke Groman and, like, Lynn Alden and a bunch of these people are, like, are all over
729
00:53:40.220 --> 00:53:45.440
this. You really like, the only play here, and I think this is kind of what they're starting to do and understand
730
00:53:45.819 --> 00:53:47.359
is, like, they have to devalue.
731
00:53:47.755 --> 00:54:04.855
They have to they basically, like it's it's strategic to weaken to weaken the dollar. Because if if not, a strong dollar is great for the rest of the world. It's terrible for the US, all of our domestic manufacturing and all that. And so, like, I think that's that's what some leaders are starting to understand and, like, you know,
732
00:54:05.495 --> 00:54:10.795
it's it's great for capital markets and and all that for the for the world reserve currency, but for the average Joe, it's awful.
733
00:54:11.575 --> 00:54:13.735
You know, like, we can buy cheap stuff from China, but,
734
00:54:14.680 --> 00:54:19.980
it's it's not good for for anybody outside of, like, the coastal elites and and, like, you know, DC.
735
00:54:20.440 --> 00:54:30.924
And so I think that's people are starting to wake up to that, and it kinda ties into to China and geopolitical game theory and and all of that. But the world reserve currency is actually, like, pretty pretty awful for the US.
736
00:54:34.730 --> 00:54:36.590
So we we started this
737
00:54:37.370 --> 00:54:41.625
I I completely agree with that analysis, Dylan. I mean, that's one of the reasons why,
738
00:54:42.645 --> 00:54:43.705
we hold Bitcoin,
739
00:54:44.965 --> 00:54:46.025
and we're seeing,
740
00:54:46.565 --> 00:54:47.065
basically,
741
00:54:48.130 --> 00:54:53.190
the beginnings of this massive devaluation of the dollar more so than it's already happened.
742
00:54:54.610 --> 00:54:55.990
But we started this
743
00:54:56.735 --> 00:54:57.635
specific topic,
744
00:54:58.495 --> 00:55:06.490
with a discussion of future supply chain shortages, and we we we already saw tons of supply chain shortages over the last 2 years.
745
00:55:08.309 --> 00:55:18.055
And and Nick specifically wanted to know what he should do to prepare for it. I mean, there's there's one question saying what the US should do to prepare for it or what Koincite should do to prepare for it.
746
00:55:18.355 --> 00:55:27.359
But what should the average Bitcoiner So or the average person right now be thinking? Like, are we gonna have you know, we're already seeing shortages in furniture and washing machines.
747
00:55:28.220 --> 00:55:33.525
As far as I'm concerned, we're seeing shortages in land. It's hard to purchase large amounts of land right now.
748
00:55:34.305 --> 00:55:38.805
And I know that's completely different than the supply chain, but that's part of, like, a hyperinflationary
749
00:55:39.585 --> 00:55:40.325
type of that.
750
00:55:41.210 --> 00:55:48.590
Well, like, how do we prepare? Are there gonna be shortages of toilet paper again? Is that gonna be a thing again, or are we past that? So so
751
00:55:48.954 --> 00:55:51.775
so in North America, right, in in reasonable
752
00:55:52.155 --> 00:55:53.535
areas of North America,
753
00:55:54.795 --> 00:55:57.055
if you have the capital capacity
754
00:55:58.279 --> 00:55:59.259
to withstand,
755
00:56:00.440 --> 00:56:05.019
spikes in prices on on goods that you need, you're fine. Right?
756
00:56:05.880 --> 00:56:06.859
I don't think
757
00:56:07.895 --> 00:56:09.195
the kind of
758
00:56:09.575 --> 00:56:10.075
of
759
00:56:11.415 --> 00:56:15.515
of issues we'll see will hinder people who have capital capacity.
760
00:56:15.975 --> 00:56:23.900
Right? So say you really need the laptop is 30% more or double. Right? You still buy it. Right? It's still gonna be available.
761
00:56:24.440 --> 00:56:27.825
The problem is it's gonna feel like hyperinflation.
762
00:56:28.765 --> 00:56:30.225
It's gonna feel like
763
00:56:30.605 --> 00:56:32.305
things are going up in price.
764
00:56:33.040 --> 00:56:33.440
And,
765
00:56:33.840 --> 00:56:36.580
but that's mostly because of supply shock. Right?
766
00:56:36.960 --> 00:56:37.940
If that triggers
767
00:56:41.175 --> 00:56:41.995
some other
768
00:56:42.535 --> 00:56:45.835
known things about the price, I don't know. But,
769
00:56:46.295 --> 00:56:49.755
like, things, for example, like cars. Right? There is already
770
00:56:50.200 --> 00:56:54.859
supply shock on cars. There is supply shock on outboard motors for boats,
771
00:56:55.320 --> 00:56:56.859
things that have more complexity.
772
00:56:57.160 --> 00:56:58.780
Right? It has a lot of parts.
773
00:56:59.795 --> 00:57:01.974
Can you still buy a new car? Yes.
774
00:57:02.355 --> 00:57:04.535
Can you buy the car that you want?
775
00:57:05.075 --> 00:57:05.575
Unlikely.
776
00:57:07.349 --> 00:57:11.049
Unless you're willing to overpay or buy on the secondary market.
777
00:57:11.750 --> 00:57:14.329
So I think we're gonna enter a transitional
778
00:57:14.630 --> 00:57:15.130
phase.
779
00:57:16.625 --> 00:57:20.325
After this transitional phase, I don't know what happens, but I I know
780
00:57:20.865 --> 00:57:22.565
or I strongly believe
781
00:57:23.230 --> 00:57:28.849
that coming coming into the as as things restart after the summer in North America,
782
00:57:29.309 --> 00:57:30.770
we're gonna start seeing
783
00:57:31.164 --> 00:57:33.505
a lot of supply shock on things.
784
00:57:34.125 --> 00:57:36.305
And if you don't have the economical
785
00:57:36.605 --> 00:57:40.740
capacity to get something you need, you might be in trouble.
786
00:57:41.280 --> 00:57:42.180
So I wouldn't
787
00:57:42.640 --> 00:57:44.420
go out there and start, like,
788
00:57:45.520 --> 00:57:47.620
getting a warehouse and filling up with crap,
789
00:57:48.255 --> 00:57:51.155
especially toilet paper, because I don't think that that's a concern.
790
00:57:51.695 --> 00:57:54.675
I think you should be more concerned about amassing capital
791
00:57:55.010 --> 00:57:56.069
that is not evaluating.
792
00:57:56.609 --> 00:57:57.829
Right? So, like, Bitcoin,
793
00:57:58.930 --> 00:58:00.470
so that you can then
794
00:58:01.410 --> 00:58:04.069
pay for things that that you need,
795
00:58:04.975 --> 00:58:06.035
at a higher price.
796
00:58:08.015 --> 00:58:12.195
Yeah. It's very difficult as a consumer or even as a business owner to know
797
00:58:13.030 --> 00:58:31.460
the supply jack issues too far in advance. I mean, you can see that maybe 3, 6 months out. But beyond that, it's really difficult, which is getting back to the core, you know, value proposition of Bitcoin, which is that no matter what happens in a word, you have this preservation of your purchasing power so that you can, you know, in whatever unforeseen event, be able to buy what you need to buy.
798
00:58:31.920 --> 00:58:35.200
And I think the coin continues to prove that over time. But,
799
00:58:36.000 --> 00:58:50.299
regarding chips, I think chips are gonna remain an issue, but I can also see it becoming something else. I mean, you know, a few months ago, it was lumber. A few months before that, it was shipping. A few months before that, it was whatever. It's gonna be something. So you have to have a plan in place for paying
800
00:58:50.760 --> 00:58:56.539
much higher prices for what you would have otherwise purchased in 6 months from now because
801
00:58:57.015 --> 00:59:00.395
depending on what happens with China, depending on what happens with Taiwan,
802
00:59:00.935 --> 00:59:07.970
things could become extremely expensive very, very quickly. If you live in a developing nature sorry. If you if you live in a developing
803
00:59:08.270 --> 00:59:08.770
nation,
804
00:59:09.470 --> 00:59:11.170
it's essentially business as usual.
805
00:59:11.470 --> 00:59:12.770
Like, you know,
806
00:59:13.464 --> 00:59:22.045
you you're just gonna deal with a known factories and move on. Right? The problem really is that we got too cozy in North America or developed world really,
807
00:59:22.869 --> 00:59:24.569
and and we don't manage
808
00:59:24.869 --> 00:59:29.930
supply chains anymore. You know, hospitals only had the weak supply of PPE,
809
00:59:30.230 --> 00:59:31.450
right, pre COVID.
810
00:59:31.985 --> 00:59:32.725
So it's
811
00:59:33.025 --> 00:59:38.405
just we're gonna have to adapt with, like, having a little bit more mindfulness on the stuff that we need
812
00:59:38.705 --> 00:59:44.290
and prep for that. Yeah. This this global sat shortage is gonna be something to behold, let me tell you.
813
00:59:45.070 --> 00:59:46.450
You better hoard them now.
814
00:59:49.194 --> 00:59:50.015
Sat squeeze.
815
00:59:52.474 --> 00:59:58.170
Nick. Oh, did we lose Nick? We lost Nick. I hope his question he considers his question answered.
816
01:00:01.750 --> 01:00:02.250
I,
817
01:00:03.269 --> 01:00:05.115
I mean, I I'm I'm pretty concerned about
818
01:00:05.415 --> 01:00:07.035
it myself. I mean, I I think,
819
01:00:08.295 --> 01:00:10.395
on on the Bitcoin side of things,
820
01:00:11.700 --> 01:00:16.200
we can only expect ASIC costs to go up in terms of Bitcoin mining.
821
01:00:17.380 --> 01:00:19.160
So if you are trying to secure
822
01:00:21.135 --> 01:00:24.115
Bitcoin mining hardware, probably sooner rather than later. Right?
823
01:00:27.270 --> 01:00:34.890
You wanna go down that that path? Talk about, like, Bitcoin mining and and ASICs and and all that? I mean, what are the supply chains looking like for that?
824
01:00:39.835 --> 01:00:46.960
I mean, I can't really speak to it. I don't know if anyone up here can really speak to it. I can't speak to to mining
825
01:00:47.260 --> 01:00:47.760
ASICs,
826
01:00:48.140 --> 01:00:48.960
like, specifically,
827
01:00:49.740 --> 01:00:50.240
but,
828
01:00:51.020 --> 01:00:55.200
they are bottom of the line for fabs that I can tell you.
829
01:00:55.545 --> 01:01:01.805
Like, the the ASEC market, it's still, like, very tiny, and and it's not priority for fabs.
830
01:01:02.345 --> 01:01:02.744
So,
831
01:01:04.080 --> 01:01:05.860
you know, either price goes up,
832
01:01:06.640 --> 01:01:10.900
and and they can overpay the fabs. But but then again, right, like,
833
01:01:11.280 --> 01:01:11.940
you know,
834
01:01:12.484 --> 01:01:14.025
carmakers are buying
835
01:01:14.724 --> 01:01:16.984
tens of millions of chips,
836
01:01:17.365 --> 01:01:18.984
right, from from,
837
01:01:19.365 --> 01:01:20.585
a a fab. So
838
01:01:20.980 --> 01:01:27.480
it's gonna be very hard, at least for the next few years, maybe maybe in a couple say say Bitcoin
839
01:01:27.940 --> 01:01:28.440
crosses
840
01:01:28.980 --> 01:01:29.480
250,
841
01:01:30.395 --> 01:01:30.895
500,000,
842
01:01:31.835 --> 01:01:41.790
it's it changes the dynamic. Right? Because now Bitcoiners get priority on the stuff that they need because it pays so much. When I when I think about ASICs, my monkey brain basically
843
01:01:42.250 --> 01:01:47.150
thinks of it as probably the only thing that's more scarce than Bitcoin right now.
844
01:01:47.835 --> 01:01:48.494
They're surprisingly
845
01:01:49.275 --> 01:01:51.375
they're very simple chips. Like,
846
01:01:51.755 --> 01:01:56.015
we're still like, the ASICs today are still, like, very
847
01:01:58.420 --> 01:01:59.960
non advanced things.
848
01:02:00.260 --> 01:02:04.120
Right. But that's not my point. My point is just in terms of acquiring them.
849
01:02:05.655 --> 01:02:11.595
I think it only gets more difficult from here at least in the next year or 2 years,
850
01:02:11.975 --> 01:02:13.675
so, like, the more short term.
851
01:02:14.589 --> 01:02:21.250
I think if you I mean, I'm just gonna pat myself on the back a little bit. If you look at the home mining serial dispatch episode we did,
852
01:02:21.904 --> 01:02:26.964
I think it was serial dispatch 32. If you haven't listened to it yet, you should.
853
01:02:27.825 --> 01:02:35.180
I'm pretty sure that was, like, right at the bottom, and I think that could be, like, a 2 year bottom, 3 year bottom in terms of
854
01:02:35.640 --> 01:02:38.140
oh, no. It wasn't 32. Maybe it was
855
01:02:38.440 --> 01:02:38.940
31.
856
01:02:39.995 --> 01:02:41.775
Yeah. 31. CD 31.
857
01:02:43.595 --> 01:02:46.875
And I think it only goes up from here. So if you still want to hold mine,
858
01:02:48.070 --> 01:02:53.530
which I think everyone should at least get their hands dirty and try it, if not with just a a cheap s nine,
859
01:02:54.230 --> 01:02:55.030
to get started,
860
01:02:55.895 --> 01:02:59.515
You're gonna wanna do that sooner rather than later. I think if you hold off,
861
01:03:00.215 --> 01:03:03.115
you're just gonna probably regret holding off.
862
01:03:03.495 --> 01:03:04.155
You know,
863
01:03:04.599 --> 01:03:05.900
there is a ton
864
01:03:06.359 --> 01:03:07.099
of used
865
01:03:07.640 --> 01:03:10.460
mining hardware on Alibaba right now.
866
01:03:10.839 --> 01:03:12.940
So, like, I can't remember which generation,
867
01:03:13.535 --> 01:03:16.915
but it's like I remember looking at it a month ago
868
01:03:17.375 --> 01:03:19.555
and with stuff that was still useful.
869
01:03:20.549 --> 01:03:25.049
So, if you want a hobby mind, there there is stuff out there for, like, $1500
870
01:03:25.750 --> 01:03:26.490
a a rig.
871
01:03:27.029 --> 01:03:31.235
The problem is, like, when you're getting used, you know, you have to be very careful. There's,
872
01:03:33.475 --> 01:03:34.775
there's there's definitely
873
01:03:35.075 --> 01:03:39.440
a lot of scams out there. There's definitely a lot of people that'll send you bad hardware,
874
01:03:41.260 --> 01:03:41.760
and,
875
01:03:43.099 --> 01:03:53.970
I I think it's it's easier to work with at least people that are have relatively good reputation in the space. I know Mind Farm by has very good reputation. He's on Twitter. If you DM him, he's very helpful.
876
01:03:56.030 --> 01:04:01.570
In that dispatch CD 31, we talked about other avenues that you can do. I think Kaboom Racks was one,
877
01:04:02.055 --> 01:04:03.595
that Ronan Miner recommended.
878
01:04:05.335 --> 01:04:11.275
But, yeah, if you're interested in Home Mining, go check that out that episode. We have we have the legend himself, Greg Zaj,
879
01:04:12.170 --> 01:04:14.430
on the speaker stage. He hasn't said anything.
880
01:04:15.690 --> 01:04:19.869
How are you doing, Greg? You you have a specific topic you wanna discuss while you're up here?
881
01:04:20.805 --> 01:04:33.190
No. I'm, I'm up here purely by accident. I joined and hit okay and brought me in as a speaker request. So feel free to hit me down. I got you. Fuck you, Greg. I invited
882
01:04:33.730 --> 01:04:38.069
I invited the whole meme team up, but the only one who came up was yellow and then you.
883
01:04:38.615 --> 01:04:39.115
So
884
01:04:41.415 --> 01:04:41.915
Yep.
885
01:04:42.375 --> 01:04:48.539
Thank you for pressing the okay button. I I'm worried about, supply chain shit coming up.
886
01:04:49.559 --> 01:04:54.779
I I wish you guys would talk a little bit more about what, what shortages you see coming up on the home front.
887
01:04:59.835 --> 01:05:01.535
Unlikely to be toilet paper.
888
01:05:02.555 --> 01:05:08.260
I'd be fascinated, Greg, if you have any thoughts on the, you know, the upcoming legislation, anonymity enhancements,
889
01:05:09.120 --> 01:05:13.365
the broker definition, anything on that too, if you care to talk about it.
890
01:05:15.285 --> 01:05:21.145
The really, the only thing I wanna talk about in regards to that stuff is why you think I have any kind of professional opinion.
891
01:05:24.770 --> 01:05:25.830
I hear you.
892
01:05:26.770 --> 01:05:30.630
We have, Mike Hobart up in stage. How's it going, Mike?
893
01:05:33.385 --> 01:05:40.365
Good. I'm actually kinda in the same boat, as as Greg Zodge. I was, I was enjoying the the macro discussion, and I was wondering how,
894
01:05:40.985 --> 01:05:45.369
if you guys have, like, kinda thought out. I I personally ever since, like, all this kind of,
895
01:05:45.930 --> 01:05:46.430
manufacturing
896
01:05:46.890 --> 01:05:49.930
supply shortage we started back in January, I've been thinking that,
897
01:05:52.875 --> 01:06:02.430
the shipping costs and commodity prices going up is gonna likely result in some serious squeezes for employers and insurance providers,
898
01:06:03.210 --> 01:06:06.030
maybe starting this fall or winter. And I'm wondering if you guys have
899
01:06:06.635 --> 01:06:07.135
considered,
900
01:06:07.915 --> 01:06:16.070
what that's gonna do, the macro outlook affecting employment rates and the housing market and rents and everything that we're kinda seeing start to bubble back up into
901
01:06:16.930 --> 01:06:17.510
the focus.
902
01:06:18.530 --> 01:06:19.670
Danielle d Martino,
903
01:06:20.050 --> 01:06:24.215
Danielle d Martino Booth, actually, has been kind of championing this the last couple of months.
904
01:06:25.015 --> 01:06:27.195
Do you know these things do compound?
905
01:06:27.495 --> 01:06:27.995
Right?
906
01:06:28.615 --> 01:06:30.635
I mean, just as a point of reference,
907
01:06:31.175 --> 01:06:36.200
I can't talk about who because of the contract is is in their NDA, but
908
01:06:36.660 --> 01:06:38.040
I have an old client,
909
01:06:38.660 --> 01:06:39.720
that that does,
910
01:06:40.340 --> 01:06:40.840
like,
911
01:06:42.885 --> 01:06:44.105
how can I put this?
912
01:06:45.765 --> 01:06:48.985
Anyways, they have a lot of servers for a certain service.
913
01:06:49.365 --> 01:06:49.865
Right?
914
01:06:50.900 --> 01:06:51.400
This
915
01:06:51.700 --> 01:06:54.200
is a fairly like it's a reasonably sized company.
916
01:06:54.660 --> 01:06:56.440
And one of their suppliers
917
01:06:56.980 --> 01:07:01.085
that is a competitor to Google on a very specific type of service,
918
01:07:01.545 --> 01:07:02.845
a mapping type service.
919
01:07:03.785 --> 01:07:06.045
They just sent an email today saying,
920
01:07:06.345 --> 01:07:11.600
so we're gonna probably increase our our our, prices by 15 to 25%
921
01:07:12.620 --> 01:07:13.760
starting next year.
922
01:07:14.380 --> 01:07:15.935
Oh, shit. So so, like,
923
01:07:16.495 --> 01:07:18.675
and this is, like, major corporation
924
01:07:19.215 --> 01:07:20.675
with, like, reasonably
925
01:07:21.455 --> 01:07:21.955
large
926
01:07:22.575 --> 01:07:23.075
corporation.
927
01:07:23.615 --> 01:07:24.115
Right?
928
01:07:24.815 --> 01:07:25.315
Like,
929
01:07:26.579 --> 01:07:27.640
if these guys,
930
01:07:28.900 --> 01:07:30.680
affect a whole industry
931
01:07:31.059 --> 01:07:32.599
related to map things
932
01:07:33.345 --> 01:07:34.645
or location things.
933
01:07:36.065 --> 01:07:37.765
I can't even begin
934
01:07:38.065 --> 01:07:40.244
to just to comprehend, like,
935
01:07:40.920 --> 01:07:48.540
the the other stuff. Right? I mean, I know that chips, the manufacturers are all raising their prices 5 to 10% across the board.
936
01:07:49.125 --> 01:07:54.025
Right? So when you compound these things, I mean, it gets pretty crazy.
937
01:07:54.405 --> 01:08:03.050
Right? Yeah. I mean, it is 15% MBK. I mean, that's the real inflation rate. If the fed was honest, it'd be 15%. Yeah. Exactly. I'm with you there.
938
01:08:03.430 --> 01:08:12.335
Yeah. When you see these prices, like, that's just the actual like, if they're just they're keeping the cost the same by raising it by 15%. But but here's the thing though, Aaron. Like, these
939
01:08:12.715 --> 01:08:23.780
companies are large enough that they are on the Fed's tits. So technically, they don't see inflation the way we see inflation. Right? Because they have access to nearly free credit.
940
01:08:24.325 --> 01:08:25.545
So they could absorb
941
01:08:26.085 --> 01:08:30.425
so so there's there's 2 ways you can look at this. Right? They they can either absorb,
942
01:08:31.580 --> 01:08:35.360
the stuff because they have access to free capital or near free capital,
943
01:08:36.139 --> 01:08:43.095
or we have a serious problem here, which is even with nearly free capital, you still cannot hold your prices.
944
01:08:43.555 --> 01:08:52.480
Yeah. But, I mean, the the problem is that the discount the discounting curve is is flattening because there you can't go lower. I mean, Amazon sold $4,000,000,000
945
01:08:52.860 --> 01:08:59.935
at 25 basis points. Like, there's there's nothing lower than 25 basis points for a for a debt note. You know? Like, it doesn't get cheaper. So
946
01:09:00.895 --> 01:09:02.514
yeah. It's nuts. Like, that's
947
01:09:02.815 --> 01:09:04.994
yeah. It's Absolutely nuts.
948
01:09:05.390 --> 01:09:10.130
And then also in in this whole mix is, I think, energy. You know? This whole ESG
949
01:09:10.830 --> 01:09:11.330
bonanza
950
01:09:12.110 --> 01:09:18.295
with, like, we can't, you know, invest, we can't do drilling, no new wells, you know, stop any sort of offshore exploration,
951
01:09:19.555 --> 01:09:20.455
no new pipeline.
952
01:09:20.845 --> 01:09:29.550
US. Yeah. So now the cost of energy, of course, is going up, and I there's no investment in bringing new supply online. We're having to solve these discussions with OPEC.
953
01:09:29.915 --> 01:09:48.005
So I don't see any reason for energy prices to go down. In fact, I'd see every all the signs pointing to higher energy prices over the next couple years because no one wants to go to nuclear facility. No one wants to do anything. No new drilling. Blah blah blah. So now you have as a minor also to consider just your raw energy cost. So I'd say I don't see any reason for those to go down.
954
01:09:49.265 --> 01:09:55.125
I mean, why would you do anything in the US if it's absolute bullshit to do it and you make less profit?
955
01:09:58.100 --> 01:10:01.720
Yeah. Yeah. So, so I I had to I had to drop out. I apologize.
956
01:10:02.900 --> 01:10:05.625
Spaces is still trying to figure out their connection issues.
957
01:10:06.245 --> 01:10:07.145
So I, like,
958
01:10:08.325 --> 01:10:12.425
literally, I don't understand how any that that's it. Thank you.
959
01:10:13.400 --> 01:10:17.800
I I don't understand how any like, you could put all these pieces together like you guys have,
960
01:10:18.199 --> 01:10:22.985
even while I lagged out, and then, like, how does it not squeeze employers to where,
961
01:10:23.865 --> 01:10:29.385
employment and housing becomes a massive issue in in America? And then, obviously, these issues bleed out into
962
01:10:30.480 --> 01:10:36.179
So I think you hit you hit something nice there that I I figured it was worth sort of talking about.
963
01:10:36.560 --> 01:10:37.060
So,
964
01:10:37.520 --> 01:10:40.805
one way shareholders are gonna find their continue,
965
01:10:41.825 --> 01:10:42.965
expected returns,
966
01:10:43.585 --> 01:10:48.710
right, is by not going back to an office. Right. So businesses have found
967
01:10:49.090 --> 01:10:55.190
an ungodly amount of cash that was being wasted in putting people that don't produce anything in an office
968
01:10:55.915 --> 01:10:56.415
doing
969
01:10:57.034 --> 01:10:58.494
anything. Right? So,
970
01:10:59.355 --> 01:11:07.230
I mean, aside from essentially But every day, they're also taking the cost of lower productivity. I mean, let's be honest. Like, people No. No. For sure for sure they are, but but the ratio
971
01:11:07.610 --> 01:11:09.309
the ratio is key. Right?
972
01:11:09.770 --> 01:11:10.270
So
973
01:11:10.705 --> 01:11:18.324
if they are not innovating, right, so if they're not creating new products or anything, they're just pressing the print button on existing stuff.
974
01:11:19.630 --> 01:11:24.210
Right? They they can find that same productivity in regards to to cost
975
01:11:24.830 --> 01:11:30.285
sorry, in regards to profit ratios. Right? So they're they're able to still make great profit,
976
01:11:30.985 --> 01:11:37.550
with the old stuff and just maintaining support for the old stuff. What we might stop seeing is new stuff.
977
01:11:38.170 --> 01:11:44.350
Yeah. Exactly. There's gonna be 0 r and d, 0 creativity because everyone just wants to work 20 hours and collect 40 hour paychecks.
978
01:11:44.804 --> 01:11:51.304
So there's no innovation. There's no, like, new things being created. But the existing business lines are just, like, you know, they're
979
01:11:51.605 --> 01:11:55.540
squeezing out. Yeah. They're squeezing out as much profit as possible because now they don't have to pay for
980
01:11:55.920 --> 01:11:57.140
facilities, security,
981
01:11:58.080 --> 01:12:00.500
washing the windows, coffee, outings,
982
01:12:00.800 --> 01:12:04.864
drinks, like, all that's to 0. But no. But there's opportunity too. Right?
983
01:12:05.244 --> 01:12:06.145
I I think
984
01:12:06.525 --> 01:12:07.585
we're gonna see,
985
01:12:08.525 --> 01:12:13.720
a lot more clever businesses operations where they are able to innovate and and create things
986
01:12:14.100 --> 01:12:15.640
with people being more remote,
987
01:12:17.304 --> 01:12:21.085
And and we're gonna see automation. Like, this is essentially just
988
01:12:21.465 --> 01:12:23.245
just just like hyperaccelerating
989
01:12:23.945 --> 01:12:27.350
automation of positions that shouldn't exist anymore to begin with.
990
01:12:27.650 --> 01:12:36.375
Right? Yep. Especially warehousing and shit like that. I mean, this should all should be a conveyor belt. Right? There is no reason for a human to be involved in this shit anymore.
991
01:12:36.915 --> 01:12:39.014
It's kinda like IKEA. Right? Like,
992
01:12:39.554 --> 01:12:42.740
almost everything IKEA makes sense. It's our robot, that makes it
993
01:12:43.940 --> 01:12:45.160
and ships it.
994
01:12:46.820 --> 01:12:48.840
It's kinda like, it's kinda like
995
01:12:58.255 --> 01:12:59.795
I cannot hear him.
996
01:13:00.720 --> 01:13:07.380
Okay. Yeah. I'm sorry. I'll drop it out. It's kinda like a Bitcoin in the financial system, like automating all that shit.
997
01:13:08.205 --> 01:13:13.344
But Yeah. I mean I You could say that about Defy. Right? In a way, Defy just transferred to gambling
998
01:13:13.965 --> 01:13:28.055
from people sitting in a desk on Wall Street to people now just fully gambling on on some stupid JavaScript script on Ethereum, right? I mean, it just moved on to to the next thing that involves even less people.
999
01:13:30.995 --> 01:13:31.495
So
1000
01:13:32.150 --> 01:13:35.450
I think this conversation's been pretty constructive so far.
1001
01:13:36.230 --> 01:13:37.850
Maybe we should move on.
1002
01:13:38.870 --> 01:13:45.054
We have Jeff Ross up here on the speaker stage. Jeff, you have anything to add? How's it going over there?
1003
01:13:45.355 --> 01:13:55.610
Yeah. Hey, man. Thanks for having me up. Dylan popped pulled me up right before he left, but, I guess that my 2¢ would be on what we've been talking about is everything we're all describing with these supply chain issues
1004
01:13:56.405 --> 01:14:00.745
and our lackluster economy and lack of innovation, this is this is the beginning,
1005
01:14:01.525 --> 01:14:02.905
pains of stagflation.
1006
01:14:03.390 --> 01:14:12.770
And I think that this decade is gonna be basically an entire decade of stagflation. Now what that means is the economy just doesn't grow. It's got it's just way overindebted
1007
01:14:13.070 --> 01:14:16.835
and stuck in supply chain issues, but inflation will remain high
1008
01:14:17.215 --> 01:14:24.650
and or, it will it will accelerate kinda throughout this decade. And so that's pretty ugly. The last time we had something like this was back in the seventies.
1009
01:14:25.190 --> 01:14:35.645
And, you know, most of us are too young to remember that, but that was a pretty ugly decade and a pretty volatile, tumultuous decade as well. So I see kind of the same thing happening this time around as well.
1010
01:14:36.185 --> 01:14:41.949
If we didn't have Bitcoin, I would be really stressed out about it. But, because of Bitcoin, that's kind of our escape valve.
1011
01:14:42.810 --> 01:14:49.215
Companies are gonna have a rough decade. Bonds are gonna have a rough decade. Hard assets should do well from an investment standpoint.
1012
01:14:49.835 --> 01:14:54.494
That'd be my 2¢ to what we've been talking about. What do you expect what do you expect to happen,
1013
01:14:55.900 --> 01:14:58.640
like, publicly traded companies, like equities, stocks?
1014
01:14:59.580 --> 01:15:09.125
I I think they're gonna have a really bad decade. So there there's, you know, they're kind of volatile right now. The Fed is still trying to, squeeze another drop or 2 out of them,
1015
01:15:09.425 --> 01:15:13.525
of artificial gains, basically, but valuations are so, so obnoxiously
1016
01:15:13.825 --> 01:15:19.030
overstretched right now. But what else do you buy? What else do you buy? So I I disagree with Jeff.
1017
01:15:20.530 --> 01:15:22.215
Yeah. What else do you buy, Jeff?
1018
01:15:23.014 --> 01:15:29.835
So like I said earlier, so you buy Bitcoin, you buy hard assets. Of course. But yeah. So hard assets We're we're we're selling Bitcoin.
1019
01:15:30.570 --> 01:15:38.590
K. Right. Can I finish? So so Bitcoin, hard assets, commodities should do very well. Gold actually may hang in there a little bit.
1020
01:15:39.954 --> 01:15:44.215
Stocks in general are not gonna do well. Bonds in general will not do well.
1021
01:15:44.675 --> 01:15:46.135
Just basically proinflationary
1022
01:15:46.675 --> 01:15:47.494
type investments
1023
01:15:47.910 --> 01:15:49.449
should do well over the decade.
1024
01:15:51.030 --> 01:15:54.650
So but you you could say that there'll be aside from Bitcoin,
1025
01:15:55.030 --> 01:15:56.890
there'll be very few things to buy.
1026
01:15:57.605 --> 01:15:58.105
And,
1027
01:15:58.645 --> 01:16:00.905
a lot of these companies are gonna be able to milk,
1028
01:16:01.844 --> 01:16:11.250
they're gonna queue r and d, right, to save. They're gonna kill real expensive real estate because now they have an excuse to to lay everybody off saying, you know, we can go back to an office because of COVID.
1029
01:16:12.910 --> 01:16:15.250
And those are essentially the 2 biggest costs,
1030
01:16:16.324 --> 01:16:17.705
that are not immediate,
1031
01:16:18.165 --> 01:16:19.304
return. Right?
1032
01:16:20.405 --> 01:16:27.130
And and and then they're gonna just milk the current production lines, the current product lines for for the next decade,
1033
01:16:27.510 --> 01:16:30.330
which may make them actually fairly profitable,
1034
01:16:32.775 --> 01:16:37.915
but but not really contribute anything to the future. I mean, if they last after that, that's a different problem.
1035
01:16:38.215 --> 01:16:41.755
But at least in the immediate future, I think they'll actually become even more profitable.
1036
01:16:42.550 --> 01:16:53.925
Exactly. So some companies that are able to do that, they will milk it out as you're saying, but but it's at the expense of future progress. And so this is gonna be kind of an ugly decade where things get kind of increasingly dilapidated,
1037
01:16:54.705 --> 01:17:01.030
where, it just kinda blows to be, you know, in the country because innovation will be lacking except in certain specific areas.
1038
01:17:01.410 --> 01:17:12.295
So it's just gonna be a tough time, and and this is what happens in these huge transitions period. I think what we're doing is transitioning from, the analog age to the digital age and from, you know, human workers to, automation,
1039
01:17:12.835 --> 01:17:19.960
and that's ugly. In the in the future, we'll look back and be like, oh, yeah. This is when we transition kinda like how we transition from the horse and carriage to the automobile.
1040
01:17:21.320 --> 01:17:30.355
But, it it it it's not without its ugliness, and it's gonna be frustrating for a lot of people. And it's gonna be hard for most investors, especially most, typical, like, older
1041
01:17:30.815 --> 01:17:37.140
Vanguard investors who have the 60 40 portfolios of stocks and bonds, they're gonna get absolutely wrecked this decade.
1042
01:17:38.800 --> 01:17:49.474
So I, I disagree on a few things. I think bonds I agree on the bonds because they are priced to perfection. There's nothing else to do there. So I don't see why they would perform. In terms of stocks, though,
1043
01:17:50.190 --> 01:17:52.929
I see no resolve regarding monopoly
1044
01:17:53.230 --> 01:17:53.730
antitrust.
1045
01:17:54.190 --> 01:17:58.449
So the bigger just keep getting bigger and gobbling up more, which was gonna help the index.
1046
01:17:58.805 --> 01:18:06.265
2 is, the Fed is thinking about thinking about thinking about tapering, but it it's not gonna happen, and it's not gonna happen to any extent.
1047
01:18:06.850 --> 01:18:20.355
That's gonna be significant, which means the cost of capital is gonna remain at the floor, which means companies that are especially large and have access to 25 basis point credit will continue to max that out and buy back their own shares and consolidate and merge to drive their stock price higher.
1048
01:18:21.295 --> 01:18:24.034
I see economies of scale and the Internet.
1049
01:18:24.620 --> 01:18:34.395
You know, there's nothing stopping that. So, you know, all these huge tech giants will just continue to gain. Bitcoin, obviously, I think is positioned the best here because people are gonna realize the effects
1050
01:18:34.775 --> 01:18:37.915
are you know, we have the bill is gonna come due ultimately for what we're doing.
1051
01:18:38.935 --> 01:18:46.219
I think also the pensions have essentially a Fed put at their, you know, as a tailwind. They they cannot
1052
01:18:47.239 --> 01:18:50.940
go below they they've been forced into equities. They have to make 7%.
1053
01:18:51.640 --> 01:19:15.485
It's it's the old people and the veterans and the teachers and the firefighters who would need to build out. So the Fed is gonna make sure that the stock portfolio of all these pension funds as well. So they'll continue to offer credit and various other incentive programs like this crazy infrastructure bill that's mostly just going to slash funds and various other programs and initiatives. The treasury has over a $1,000,000,000,000 in its TGA right now to allocate.
1054
01:19:16.425 --> 01:19:20.080
The Fed is gonna continue to buy real estate, mortgage backed securities.
1055
01:19:21.660 --> 01:19:28.080
So I just think I every for me, it even though even at these prices, which is insane that we are at a 25
1056
01:19:28.905 --> 01:19:41.310
p on the S and P that it can continue to go higher, but it's just what else is there to buy? I mean, aside from Bitcoin, like, what else is there to buy? So I totally agree with everything you just said, Aaron, but the one caveat that I think is the huge caveat is
1057
01:19:41.770 --> 01:19:54.940
you will see significant nominal gains in your stocks and in real estate and in things like that, but real returns are gonna be close to 0. And that's because the, because of what you're saying. So the Fed is gonna print so much money this decade
1058
01:19:55.560 --> 01:20:17.110
that the the, underlying so the denominator, the US dollar is gonna be depreciating at least as fast as the gains that we see even in the big tech companies, I think. So I think I think nominal gains will be positive. Real returns are gonna be flat to negative over the coming decade. But, Jeff, I I don't I don't think it matters, right, for for all these these funds because
1059
01:20:17.965 --> 01:20:25.025
what matters to them is to to show a number. Right? So if you're saying your pension fund is indexed, right,
1060
01:20:25.350 --> 01:20:26.730
as long as that number
1061
01:20:27.110 --> 01:20:29.850
still looks better than the official numbers,
1062
01:20:30.230 --> 01:20:39.195
right, you you're still sort of you you survive another day. Right? Right. So that's the main problem. Right. I mean, in reality, they're all fucked.
1063
01:20:39.974 --> 01:20:53.090
Yeah. Exactly. In reality so so this is the wealth effect. People think they're rich because they see these big gains in their 4 0 one k's and their IRAs, but their purchasing power is eroding faster than the gains that they're seeing. And they don't understand that. Nobody
1064
01:20:53.405 --> 01:20:54.145
understands economics.
1065
01:20:55.085 --> 01:20:59.265
And pensions are even in a worse place because most of them who have,
1066
01:20:59.805 --> 01:21:02.305
like, government stated mandates
1067
01:21:02.650 --> 01:21:07.870
that they have to hold, say, 30% of the fund in bonds. Right? It it's not even optional
1068
01:21:08.410 --> 01:21:13.225
for for dispension funds on the stuff that they can invest in. So Yep.
1069
01:21:13.665 --> 01:21:21.770
And they have a lot of smart people in them. So these guys see the writing on the wall. They they most of them just have their hides their their hands completely tight.
1070
01:21:23.370 --> 01:21:28.030
So here's the kicker then. What's the actual hurdle rate, what's it gonna be going forward?
1071
01:21:29.165 --> 01:21:31.905
And are is stocks and bonds and even 30 3%.
1072
01:21:32.765 --> 01:21:39.160
Just gonna be a proxy continue to be a proxy for for inflation at a nominal rate. And so, yeah, if it is 33%,
1073
01:21:39.940 --> 01:21:43.720
what is the only asset that can actually get over that hurdle rate?
1074
01:21:44.535 --> 01:21:47.185
That and then well, that and, like,
1075
01:21:47.805 --> 01:21:56.040
when when do people real even even more so. Right? Because we're talking about the death of the dollar here, the never ending printing. Like, when is it when the masses truly understand and see,
1076
01:21:56.420 --> 01:21:57.400
hey. Shoot.
1077
01:21:57.780 --> 01:22:05.474
I can't keep up with any of my traditional stuff, and now I need Bitcoin. When does when does that point when it was over that point and see the just hordes
1078
01:22:05.775 --> 01:22:08.434
hordes coming in. The real sad squeeze. Right?
1079
01:22:13.640 --> 01:22:17.500
Yeah. I mean, there there is no way out. We we've reached the point of no return
1080
01:22:17.800 --> 01:22:19.545
pretty much 20 years ago. Right?
1081
01:22:21.065 --> 01:22:30.260
So so now really is you know, they're they're just gonna manage this, and and they could manage this. So if we don't have some black swan that completely obliterates
1082
01:22:30.960 --> 01:22:31.700
some major,
1083
01:22:32.480 --> 01:22:33.620
western government,
1084
01:22:35.495 --> 01:22:40.715
mainly the US, these guys can keep on going with this stuff for another 20, 50 years.
1085
01:22:41.255 --> 01:22:42.475
It it's not impossible.
1086
01:22:42.910 --> 01:22:48.290
It really isn't. I think a lot of people also if you're in the United States, you're thinking, well, obviously,
1087
01:22:48.910 --> 01:23:00.275
the US dollar is trash. But if you're in other countries, it's much more acute and it's easy to see. Like, you can literally opt out and you see your you know, the value appreciate, like, 30% in the year, 50% in the year, whatever.
1088
01:23:00.700 --> 01:23:11.335
Or even, you know, trip, triple digits. But when you're in United States, you see the same effect. But because we're so large, you can't comprehend the amount of inflows that will come first
1089
01:23:11.875 --> 01:23:15.494
from all of these other countries with other fiats that are far, far inferior.
1090
01:23:15.920 --> 01:23:19.219
They're come to the dollar and then go ahead. Yeah.
1091
01:23:20.320 --> 01:23:22.500
All all other countries, including the euro,
1092
01:23:22.880 --> 01:23:25.380
is mostly to the dollar. Dollarized.
1093
01:23:26.065 --> 01:23:27.205
Everybody's dollarized.
1094
01:23:28.065 --> 01:23:35.045
There is a fallacy that people so so US is the last to fall. Yes. Some people don't understand. Yeah. Timing.
1095
01:23:36.070 --> 01:23:40.490
It it it really is. Like, I mean, like, everybody goes down first. So
1096
01:23:41.590 --> 01:23:42.970
how that plays out,
1097
01:23:44.355 --> 01:23:53.130
it's beyond me. I mean, because, like, what? Are you gonna just, like, recapture America or something? Like, how do you handle the fact that you are essentially
1098
01:23:55.350 --> 01:23:58.970
the the first to fall? Right? That that's true especially for Europe.
1099
01:23:59.585 --> 01:24:05.045
Yeah. It's so large. I mean, over 70% of global trade denominated in dollars. It's extraordinarily
1100
01:24:05.425 --> 01:24:08.485
large. So it's not like there's some sort of imminent collapse.
1101
01:24:09.180 --> 01:24:10.800
It's just gonna be a cascade,
1102
01:24:11.260 --> 01:24:14.480
and the 1st dominoes to fall are the smallest countries.
1103
01:24:14.860 --> 01:24:18.485
So we've already seen this, you know, like, with opting out in Turkey, opting
1104
01:24:19.045 --> 01:24:24.505
out in very small countries, and then it goes on. But the timeline is much longer than I think a lot of people understand.
1105
01:24:25.125 --> 01:24:27.300
So if that's the case though, right, and
1106
01:24:27.619 --> 01:24:32.679
everything is traded at such a high percentage in dollars on the maybe not on the front, but on the back end,
1107
01:24:33.059 --> 01:24:34.599
is it does it make it easier
1108
01:24:35.175 --> 01:24:40.155
for the Fed and the US to just rug the, right, the current dollar system
1109
01:24:40.455 --> 01:24:46.910
and sub it for the CBDC version they've been talking about? Like, do you guys see that as a media possibility?
1110
01:24:49.655 --> 01:24:54.395
They can just keep on going as is. This is great for them. Right? They keep on getting real active.
1111
01:24:54.695 --> 01:24:56.395
Nobody is in civil war.
1112
01:24:57.015 --> 01:24:57.515
And
1113
01:24:58.620 --> 01:25:06.240
as we say in Canada, Bob is your uncle. Just continue going as you are. You're surviving it. They they they literally got over 2,008
1114
01:25:06.860 --> 01:25:08.000
without a scuff,
1115
01:25:08.675 --> 01:25:09.655
politically speaking.
1116
01:25:10.994 --> 01:25:15.494
The Fed dollars only as a response. It's not like they care about it.
1117
01:25:15.950 --> 01:25:28.335
We already have the dominant position. Like, we don't need more than 70% or 80% or whatever share of global trade that we have. It's fine. And we'd actually rather to devalue our currency, and it's very difficult to do that. Like, the more devaluation, the better.
1118
01:25:28.795 --> 01:25:36.140
But the response is just that, okay. Well, China's doing it and the Euro is doing it, so we have to do it, obviously. We'll do it after them and crush them.
1119
01:25:36.440 --> 01:25:51.565
But we just have to be prepared for that. So let's get our, you know, the prep work done so that we're ready to go once that launches. So people realize, as always, that they can't compete with the US dollar. If they try to, we will smash them. That's pretty much the the role of the fed dollar. It's not actually gonna do anything.
1120
01:25:51.870 --> 01:25:55.490
It's just gonna be a response to the international community trying to,
1121
01:25:56.270 --> 01:25:58.610
supplant even a little bit of our denomination
1122
01:25:59.150 --> 01:26:01.775
and just saying, no. You actually can't because we can do it better.
1123
01:26:02.815 --> 01:26:04.515
Okay. So then maybe not in terms
1124
01:26:05.375 --> 01:26:09.300
so maybe not in terms of, like, the monetary policy as much as, like well,
1125
01:26:10.179 --> 01:26:13.320
I I firmly believe that there's there's a there's a plan to,
1126
01:26:13.940 --> 01:26:24.875
you know, put some type of control grid in place when it comes to buying and selling and and how we can do such things. And I know that Bitcoin will allow us to circumvent that a lot, but I I don't think
1127
01:26:25.335 --> 01:26:26.554
that that's too far,
1128
01:26:26.855 --> 01:26:29.710
you know, too far fetched to say, hey. Maybe they
1129
01:26:30.250 --> 01:26:34.510
will move forward on this just for the sake of trying to control those who are, you know, unvaccinated
1130
01:26:34.890 --> 01:26:42.625
or don't comply or this, that, or the other thing. But but they don't need they don't need c v c CBDC to do that. They're already doing that with the existing
1131
01:26:43.240 --> 01:27:03.390
industry. They put out the buyer post saying, hey. Any anonymity enhanced, currency no matter what it is, no matter what name it is. If you're a financial institution, you're not allowed to recommend it. You're not allowed to talk about it. You're not allowed to allow any of your clients to use it. This is already proposed. It's in draft language going to the floor of our congress to debate these, you know, pro total prohibitions regarding anonymity,
1132
01:27:03.850 --> 01:27:09.844
no mixers, no coin joints, blah blah blah. I mean, it's crazy. So they don't even need the CBDC to introduce these controls.
1133
01:27:10.224 --> 01:27:14.005
Got it. Okay. Stuff is is even that stuff is even less useful
1134
01:27:14.430 --> 01:27:17.170
than, say, the big sequencing act. Right? Because,
1135
01:27:17.550 --> 01:27:24.805
see, when you have legislation like that that is, that is very specific and is very, clear. Right?
1136
01:27:25.745 --> 01:27:30.460
You you give people way around it because we'll come out come out with ways around that.
1137
01:27:31.020 --> 01:27:35.680
The issue really is stuff like the Bank Secrecy Act because it's selective enforcement.
1138
01:27:36.460 --> 01:27:38.480
Right? So you don't know.
1139
01:27:39.275 --> 01:27:42.175
And it's written there. They're not even allowed to tell you
1140
01:27:42.554 --> 01:27:49.250
why they're doing what they're doing. And that's why they've been so successful at present as as preventing, like, porn people, the pot people,
1141
01:27:49.710 --> 01:27:51.010
or whatever undesirable,
1142
01:27:52.030 --> 01:27:55.010
industry from banking. Right? So I'm actually
1143
01:27:55.310 --> 01:27:56.290
less concerned
1144
01:27:57.295 --> 01:27:57.795
about
1145
01:27:58.175 --> 01:28:03.074
the the the this new bill or however they wanna do it as long as they they make it so it's clear,
1146
01:28:03.775 --> 01:28:09.330
than I am about the other stuff. They're gonna keep on adding, and nobody's gonna fight because he can't even fight.
1147
01:28:11.230 --> 01:28:17.945
Yeah. This is private rule making. Literally, in the bill, it says the secretary of treasury has the authority to define the terms of the rulemaking.
1148
01:28:18.485 --> 01:28:21.145
So it would just continue to come. It's an onslaught.
1149
01:28:21.445 --> 01:28:22.585
It would just be
1150
01:28:23.110 --> 01:28:24.090
Bitcoin versus
1151
01:28:24.469 --> 01:28:38.785
the BSA pretty much or Bitcoin versus treasury if you wanna frame it in a in a US centric way. It's gonna be we don't want the treasury doesn't want anyone to do anything privately as long as you tell us absolutely all of your transactions. It's totally fine. Just just give us a report.
1152
01:28:39.100 --> 01:28:53.455
Whenever you do something, if you're a financial institution in any way, just tell us exactly what your customers are doing. No problem. And then it's gonna be that versus what actually Bitcoin was intended to do, which which is to allow people to conduct their own affairs and do their own business in private, which is a right.
1153
01:28:56.580 --> 01:28:57.080
Yeah.
1154
01:28:57.620 --> 01:28:59.719
I I don't think they care about rights.
1155
01:29:00.980 --> 01:29:17.719
I think Aaron pretty much nailed it. Yeah. Thankfully, it's in our bill of rights. But we will it's gonna be a huge fight because they don't like it. Yeah. They're fighting that down. The real fight has not come yet. Aaron has Aaron completely nailed it. A 100% cosigned what he said.
1156
01:29:19.435 --> 01:29:31.380
The the Bayer bill is intentionally vague, and I I did I did notice exactly what Aaron said. The it even says in the bill that just like the treasury department gets to say what the definitions of the bill mean.
1157
01:29:32.880 --> 01:29:33.440
We have,
1158
01:29:34.320 --> 01:29:37.620
we have Evan Kaludis up on stage. He hasn't spoke.
1159
01:29:38.215 --> 01:29:42.235
Evan, you have anything to add here? You have any topics you want us to discuss?
1160
01:29:46.460 --> 01:29:46.960
Nope.
1161
01:29:50.300 --> 01:29:53.985
I got a topic from the audience that I thought was kinda interesting.
1162
01:29:55.885 --> 01:29:57.745
Talking about narratives and memes,
1163
01:29:58.525 --> 01:30:02.305
one thing that Bitcoin Twitter loves saying is Bitcoin fixes this.
1164
01:30:04.030 --> 01:30:07.730
In terms of the whole situation in Afghanistan right now,
1165
01:30:08.030 --> 01:30:11.665
how does Bitcoin fix that? Does Bitcoin fix that? Oh.
1166
01:30:12.764 --> 01:30:15.264
Yes. It prevents us from definitely repeating it.
1167
01:30:17.645 --> 01:30:18.364
It prevents,
1168
01:30:18.844 --> 01:30:24.950
it also prevents, like, going a little bit farther than than that. It it prevents well, we we saw some of the issues,
1169
01:30:25.410 --> 01:30:30.795
that fiat money allows within the infrastructure bill that Matt just brought up.
1170
01:30:31.655 --> 01:30:35.435
These politicians are getting paid, and they're getting paid to
1171
01:30:36.159 --> 01:30:36.659
essentially
1172
01:30:37.040 --> 01:30:37.540
reorganize
1173
01:30:37.920 --> 01:30:44.500
tax dollars to go to wherever their buddies are paying them to also get paid. So, like,
1174
01:30:45.635 --> 01:30:49.475
yeah. Like, you wanna talk about politicians or corporate lobbying for,
1175
01:30:50.035 --> 01:30:51.015
military spending.
1176
01:30:52.250 --> 01:30:58.110
It basically Bitcoin removes the capability of America to wage war to maintain,
1177
01:30:58.489 --> 01:30:59.210
her economic
1178
01:31:00.635 --> 01:31:06.275
I don't even wanna say dominance. Like, America's economy is strictly reliant on the,
1179
01:31:07.235 --> 01:31:08.935
a perpetual war, essentially.
1180
01:31:09.555 --> 01:31:09.875
So,
1181
01:31:10.940 --> 01:31:11.480
yeah, Bitcoin
1182
01:31:11.860 --> 01:31:14.520
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily remove war,
1183
01:31:15.780 --> 01:31:20.485
as I or remove the capability of funding a war, but it removes the capability of
1184
01:31:21.525 --> 01:31:23.465
falsely funding a war.
1185
01:31:23.925 --> 01:31:28.344
You would you would need a vast majority of your citizenry to be willing to
1186
01:31:29.190 --> 01:31:32.170
essentially purchase war bonds, like, in World War 2
1187
01:31:32.470 --> 01:31:45.324
to be able to fund anything on on on an, on a Bitcoin economy. So, like, that's that's really the the kind of the positive thing that we're all hoping for that Bitcoin can do. You know, Mike, the the the way that they funded that,
1188
01:31:45.910 --> 01:31:51.850
actually, that's the way that income source deduction started about. It was a one time war measure
1189
01:31:52.230 --> 01:31:59.445
where they couldn't print the money yet, So they were just, okay. You know, we're gonna take capture some of the the salary, right,
1190
01:31:59.985 --> 01:32:01.205
at the source because
1191
01:32:01.590 --> 01:32:05.530
if people have to pay their taxes after the fact, they would rebel.
1192
01:32:06.310 --> 01:32:06.810
So,
1193
01:32:07.350 --> 01:32:17.425
they started source deduction like that, and source deduction is was the cleverest way of taking people's money without people sort of really noticing because it's not out of their bank account.
1194
01:32:19.000 --> 01:32:28.695
Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And then, like, it gets even more like, the the scenario are kind of detailed. It sounds still pretty bleak, but it gets much, much better, as you kind
1195
01:32:29.075 --> 01:32:34.775
of work down the game theory as far as you're not gonna the likelihood is you're not gonna get them vast majority of a population,
1196
01:32:35.420 --> 01:32:36.560
large enough, like,
1197
01:32:37.580 --> 01:32:40.080
I I you can use America, like, 350,000,000
1198
01:32:40.460 --> 01:32:46.215
people or whatever. You're not gonna get the vast majority to agree to a war unless something significant like Pearl Harbor,
1199
01:32:46.594 --> 01:32:47.094
happens.
1200
01:32:47.474 --> 01:32:49.974
Even then, I I think the likelihood is very,
1201
01:32:50.594 --> 01:32:56.420
poor. But then, like, when you kinda game it out as far as using war as a
1202
01:32:57.199 --> 01:32:59.139
political or economic tactic,
1203
01:33:00.445 --> 01:33:06.385
With Bitcoin, it becomes much more economic and much more realistic and much more agreeable
1204
01:33:06.685 --> 01:33:09.950
to come to mutual agreement or terms via trade.
1205
01:33:11.150 --> 01:33:13.790
Then then there's no loss of life. There's no,
1206
01:33:14.750 --> 01:33:15.810
there's no violence
1207
01:33:16.510 --> 01:33:17.650
and there's essentially,
1208
01:33:18.430 --> 01:33:20.255
well, peace. I I would hope.
1209
01:33:25.275 --> 01:33:36.159
Anybody wants to disagree or not, there's crickets. So I don't know if you guys are agreeing or not. We have LogScale in here who hasn't spoken. He's up on the speaker stage. How's it going LogScale? Do you have anything to add here?
1210
01:33:39.195 --> 01:33:42.895
Well, when you guys were talking about monetary debasement a little while ago,
1211
01:33:43.755 --> 01:33:46.415
I kinda had a just interesting thought experiment.
1212
01:33:46.840 --> 01:33:48.140
Curious to see what people,
1213
01:33:48.600 --> 01:33:49.580
reaction to.
1214
01:33:50.680 --> 01:33:53.785
Let's assume, like, in the next 5 years, we have
1215
01:33:54.345 --> 01:33:54.845
hyperbitcoinization.
1216
01:33:56.025 --> 01:33:59.965
And just take that as a given for the moment. Is it more likely to happen,
1217
01:34:01.225 --> 01:34:03.325
on the tail end of
1218
01:34:03.630 --> 01:34:14.715
fiat currency failing and people being forced into Bitcoin? Or is it more likely to happen because smart people start front running it very soon and it leads to a cascading effect?
1219
01:34:16.375 --> 01:34:17.835
Both, in my opinion.
1220
01:34:18.910 --> 01:34:24.290
Reality is usually somewhere in between the extremes, and I think what you just labeled were extremes.
1221
01:34:25.710 --> 01:34:26.210
Unfortunately,
1222
01:34:26.590 --> 01:34:30.675
I feel like this and this is where I think a lot of people are gonna disagree with me.
1223
01:34:32.175 --> 01:34:33.875
Unfortunately, I think that the average
1224
01:34:34.335 --> 01:34:34.835
citizen,
1225
01:34:35.454 --> 01:34:40.230
who doesn't really wanna put forth the efforts to do their own research is going to
1226
01:34:40.930 --> 01:34:43.090
really drag their feet on doing what is,
1227
01:34:43.490 --> 01:34:45.020
best. We don't really,
1228
01:34:45.895 --> 01:34:47.755
we don't really need to look very far,
1229
01:34:48.215 --> 01:34:49.675
much farther than the
1230
01:34:50.135 --> 01:34:52.535
there was a study that went out that they were,
1231
01:34:53.495 --> 01:35:02.010
I believe it was the National Institute of Health said that by 2030, they're estimating that 78% of Americans are gonna be at at the very least overweight, if not obese.
1232
01:35:02.765 --> 01:35:05.965
That should tell you right there that most people are gonna put in the the,
1233
01:35:06.285 --> 01:35:12.960
most minimum amount of effort to do what is necessary or do what they should for their own health, whether it's financial or physical.
1234
01:35:13.740 --> 01:35:20.240
So I unfortunately, I think that the majority of the the populace is gonna wait till the very last minute. They're the ones that are gonna get hurt the most.
1235
01:35:20.545 --> 01:35:22.005
Okay. Let me let me clarify.
1236
01:35:22.385 --> 01:35:26.885
So, and and not by the way, your answer, that's usually how I answer things. The truth is somewhere in the middle.
1237
01:35:27.344 --> 01:35:29.764
But the the the, the front running
1238
01:35:30.330 --> 01:35:33.550
idea I had is that it created such a cascading
1239
01:35:34.170 --> 01:35:39.790
effect that it forced people into it just because of how fast it was going up, even though, like,
1240
01:35:40.195 --> 01:35:42.295
the dollar wasn't really even failing yet.
1241
01:35:45.315 --> 01:35:46.855
So long ago, unfortunately
1242
01:35:47.235 --> 01:35:50.610
I mean, I wish this wasn't the case, but I I think it is, unfortunately,
1243
01:35:51.070 --> 01:35:53.810
that the government just won't allow hyperbolicolonization.
1244
01:35:54.910 --> 01:36:06.159
Or they will do everything and they will pull up all their entire toolkit and use every single one to stop it. So I think it's very difficult within a 5 year time frame to have that type of outlook. It's just
1245
01:36:06.460 --> 01:36:12.159
difficult for me to see how given how powerful the incumbents are that they could allow such a thing to happen.
1246
01:36:12.565 --> 01:36:15.385
But I think if it were to happen, it would be probably people
1247
01:36:15.925 --> 01:36:16.825
learning about,
1248
01:36:17.525 --> 01:36:20.985
the value of Bitcoin. I think it's incredible to see how quickly
1249
01:36:21.850 --> 01:36:33.185
awareness of the most basic properties of Bitcoin has spread around the world. People understand, like, it's a thing and it holds its own value that's independent of everything else. Even just that basic concept,
1250
01:36:33.565 --> 01:36:34.705
there's now probably,
1251
01:36:35.245 --> 01:36:36.945
I don't know, about a 1000000000 people
1252
01:36:37.360 --> 01:36:46.905
or more who understand that the most basic concept, and it's it's something that you can buy that you can hold that holds its value digitally. And then as people learn more about it, like,
1253
01:36:47.465 --> 01:36:51.885
it's a way you can send payments to anyone without any financial intermediary.
1254
01:36:52.744 --> 01:37:00.969
You know, you can do it to you can hold your own, you know, Bitcoin without anyone having to custody it for you. These more advanced topics, people will learn,
1255
01:37:01.349 --> 01:37:06.875
and we've seen already the price run up just from this most basic explanation of features of Bitcoin worldwide.
1256
01:37:07.735 --> 01:37:13.335
The, the one thing the one thing that's also kind of like a, a possible possibility for optimism is,
1257
01:37:14.210 --> 01:37:18.310
the the states and the the pension programs and the the fixed income,
1258
01:37:18.770 --> 01:37:25.965
managers that do put that are the first movers to put Bitcoin on their balance sheet will be the ones to really protect their citizens most.
1259
01:37:27.545 --> 01:37:33.650
If in my opinion, if the United States really wanted to position themselves well, it would be the individual states,
1260
01:37:34.130 --> 01:37:37.090
doing this, taking these measures, and doing it now. But,
1261
01:37:38.210 --> 01:37:44.395
but, yeah, again, like, I agree with Aaron. I don't I don't think that'll happen. I think the federal government will try to I'm
1262
01:37:45.114 --> 01:37:47.215
It seems that, like, every attempt
1263
01:37:47.755 --> 01:37:49.350
at, like, federalization
1264
01:37:49.890 --> 01:37:55.510
really has the wrong incentives and ends up failing. Right? Like, Canada is also federation, and it's like,
1265
01:37:56.245 --> 01:38:13.530
you know, they just keep on consolidating power to the top because that's where the incentives are. Right? That's where the money printer is. Yeah. That's where the responsibility is because they don't wanna they don't wanna take individual responsibility of taking risk. That's right. I mean, like, they don't it's not even some grand conspiracy. People just don't wanna lose elections. It's that simple.
1266
01:38:14.614 --> 01:38:19.114
Well, if I can, yeah, take off on that and and answer Aaron. The reason I'm more optimistic,
1267
01:38:19.494 --> 01:38:23.180
apart from, you know, my viral tweet thread that you probably all seen,
1268
01:38:23.820 --> 01:38:24.320
is,
1269
01:38:24.940 --> 01:38:27.600
that, you know, the people who pull the levers of power,
1270
01:38:29.020 --> 01:38:31.680
they also they understand the problem
1271
01:38:32.235 --> 01:38:33.195
as well as we do, I think.
1272
01:38:34.235 --> 01:38:57.145
And I think that they're already buying Bitcoin for themselves or their families or their kids or their grandkids are. And so I I think the the game theory applies to the decision makers too and the people who wanna get reelected too. And I think they're realizing that the voting block is too big to risk coming out against Bitcoin. And I thought it was fascinating that in the senate, we had 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans
1273
01:38:57.770 --> 01:39:02.590
trying to figure out and get it right. And now in the house, 2 Democrats, 1 Republican
1274
01:39:03.130 --> 01:39:05.995
have, you know, started a memo to try to get it right.
1275
01:39:06.875 --> 01:39:09.935
It's like you're you're you're seeing cooperation across the board.
1276
01:39:11.035 --> 01:39:20.000
I figured these conversations that the the people, right, in between quotes, it, like, gets absolved too easy. Right? Like, I mean, the majority of the population wants free shit.
1277
01:39:20.460 --> 01:39:25.695
Right? They they want this. They want the services. They want none of the responsibility.
1278
01:39:26.315 --> 01:39:27.455
Right? This is, like,
1279
01:39:28.155 --> 01:39:31.455
over a 100 years of of a culture of this. So
1280
01:39:32.020 --> 01:39:32.600
you can't
1281
01:39:33.140 --> 01:39:37.400
it's not like the politicians are not some reflection of of the people. Right?
1282
01:39:38.020 --> 01:39:42.685
And and, you know, if the population wants this and they're doing this to get reelected,
1283
01:39:43.945 --> 01:39:48.045
you know, it's no wonder than the poor and the middle class are the ones who pay for this
1284
01:39:48.699 --> 01:39:51.119
because the people who have more money,
1285
01:39:51.500 --> 01:39:52.639
left or right,
1286
01:39:53.739 --> 01:39:55.679
both of them have enough means
1287
01:39:56.045 --> 01:39:59.505
to at least carve out the loopholes that are needed for them
1288
01:39:59.965 --> 01:40:03.105
to not go through this capture of income.
1289
01:40:09.400 --> 01:40:15.755
I think, generally speaking, US politicians are they're certainly becoming more aware. Some of them have very large Bitcoin
1290
01:40:16.135 --> 01:40:21.994
holdings, and they also are not stupid. They understand how much Bitcoin is owned by US residents.
1291
01:40:22.600 --> 01:40:23.100
Coinbase
1292
01:40:23.560 --> 01:40:24.060
owns
1293
01:40:25.000 --> 01:40:26.760
very large or, I mean,
1294
01:40:27.240 --> 01:40:31.260
I would say maybe what what is it? Like, 9 9% of all cryptocurrencies.
1295
01:40:32.185 --> 01:40:35.085
The Grace of Bitcoin Trust has 3, 4% of Bitcoin.
1296
01:40:36.025 --> 01:40:36.525
Altogether,
1297
01:40:37.225 --> 01:40:40.445
US Bitcoin ownership is probably somewhere around 20, 25
1298
01:40:40.780 --> 01:40:42.560
percent of the circulating supply,
1299
01:40:43.100 --> 01:40:45.040
which is very in line with our GDP,
1300
01:40:45.500 --> 01:40:48.720
dominance in the world. So we have about 20% of whatever.
1301
01:40:49.855 --> 01:40:55.635
China is next in line regarding Bitcoin ownership. You know, their GDP is half of ours, and they have
1302
01:40:56.095 --> 01:40:56.595
roughly,
1303
01:40:57.090 --> 01:40:57.750
you know,
1304
01:40:58.290 --> 01:41:13.575
maybe a third of our Bitcoin ownership. So it's not going to change the status quo. I think they're pretty aware that, you know, if Bitcoin goes up in price, the, you know, US residents will benefit. So it's not a major threat. So as long as the treasury gets all the visibility and the privacy,
1305
01:41:14.710 --> 01:41:23.805
you know, killing things that they want, then it's gonna be fine because the US will be wealthy just as as long as much as anyone else if the price goes up. I think if the ownership were were,
1306
01:41:25.165 --> 01:41:44.165
lopsided the other way, if we didn't have very much Bitcoin and it wasn't a legitimate threat, like, if it was, you know, like, MBK was talking about gold ownership and how Russia was able to to dollarize or if China had actually succeeded in acquiring amount of gold that would allow it to get off the dollar standard, that would have been a threat, but it's not the threat at all. I think it's just kind of keeping
1307
01:41:44.705 --> 01:41:49.340
things pretty much as they are. But it's providing individuals the opportunity. It's not a national,
1308
01:41:49.740 --> 01:41:58.225
security threat, but it's providing individuals the opportunity to learn about what's happening on this geopolitical thing. You know, there's this new asset class called Bitcoin,
1309
01:41:58.765 --> 01:42:05.905
and it's not it's very much, you know, being managed by the powers that be, but still can operate in this way that allows you
1310
01:42:06.270 --> 01:42:07.090
your own self
1311
01:42:07.469 --> 01:42:08.750
sovereignty. But, Aaron
1312
01:42:09.230 --> 01:42:11.890
one second, MBK. Let me just jump in. Aaron, I mean,
1313
01:42:13.230 --> 01:42:13.730
does
1314
01:42:14.515 --> 01:42:18.535
does, like, that institutional adoption of Bitcoin or that, like, known
1315
01:42:18.995 --> 01:42:22.615
like, you mentioned Grayscale. Grayscale actually holds their Bitcoin with Coinbase.
1316
01:42:24.150 --> 01:42:29.850
So, I mean, if you include Coinbase custody, which most of these trackers don't, like Glassnode or whatnot,
1317
01:42:30.745 --> 01:42:34.445
it's probably closer to around 2,000,000 Bitcoin that they hold.
1318
01:42:36.185 --> 01:42:39.110
And, like, you know, Michael Sailor and and MicroStrategy,
1319
01:42:39.570 --> 01:42:40.790
like, they're holding their
1320
01:42:41.490 --> 01:42:42.790
100,000 Bitcoin,
1321
01:42:44.610 --> 01:42:46.150
with a regulated custodian,
1322
01:42:47.055 --> 01:42:51.795
not Coinbase Custody, but another one of the big players. There's, like, 3 big regulated custodians.
1323
01:42:52.335 --> 01:42:54.435
Is like, that's not really
1324
01:42:57.040 --> 01:42:57.540
that
1325
01:42:58.000 --> 01:43:03.380
that known Bitcoin that is disclosed and held in regulated custodians and is easily
1326
01:43:04.315 --> 01:43:08.975
taxed in any kind of situation and is completely controlled in terms of how it's spent.
1327
01:43:11.390 --> 01:43:13.570
I I feel like we have to be careful about
1328
01:43:14.430 --> 01:43:24.435
combining that with Bitcoin held by actual sovereign Bitcoiners that use their own node and hold their own keys. Would you agree? No. I totally agree with that. I'm just going on a few snapshots.
1329
01:43:25.055 --> 01:43:25.635
So Chanalysis
1330
01:43:25.935 --> 01:43:34.420
actually just recently, they published their newest snapshot, and they so like you're saying, it's impossible to know who the people individually are, but they can measure
1331
01:43:34.800 --> 01:43:36.500
there were 2 things last summer.
1332
01:43:36.855 --> 01:43:42.235
They measured how much would they estimate was held by service hosted wallets, which is custodians.
1333
01:43:42.775 --> 01:44:00.645
And at that time, summer of last year, it was 25% in the United States. 25 of the Bitcoin was held by custodians within the United States. Now, of course, those custodians could have international customers, but that was where Chainalysis estimated that the Bitcoin was held at that time. And then, last month, they released a report saying that,
1334
01:44:01.320 --> 01:44:04.699
of the payments that are sent on chain, which country,
1335
01:44:05.560 --> 01:44:11.525
could we estimate that those payments are being sent to? So this called addresses estimated to be controlled by users.
1336
01:44:12.225 --> 01:44:16.165
And as of the first half of the year, the United States
1337
01:44:16.790 --> 01:44:19.929
addresses associated with the United States received $450,000,000,000
1338
01:44:21.349 --> 01:44:24.730
in the first half of the year. Next in line was China at a $150,000,000,000.
1339
01:44:25.715 --> 01:44:27.655
After that was the UK of a $130,000,000,000.
1340
01:44:28.675 --> 01:44:35.909
So United States' dominance, if this is a good measure of that, value received by addresses that are known to be associated with the country,
1341
01:44:36.449 --> 01:44:38.309
is over 3 times that of China.
1342
01:44:41.625 --> 01:44:44.844
So but but there is another aspect to this. Right?
1343
01:44:45.225 --> 01:44:46.925
You get economic protection
1344
01:44:47.465 --> 01:44:47.965
because
1345
01:44:48.360 --> 01:44:54.300
US doesn't wanna fuck with something that ruins their stock market. Because you're in the stock market, nobody gets reelected.
1346
01:44:54.840 --> 01:44:59.085
Right? So when you do have a lot of larger entities
1347
01:44:59.465 --> 01:45:03.725
starting to hold, and they don't care about privacy whatsoever. Right? So
1348
01:45:05.140 --> 01:45:06.600
you are creating moat
1349
01:45:07.300 --> 01:45:09.320
between you and the state because,
1350
01:45:09.940 --> 01:45:11.160
you know, they will
1351
01:45:11.755 --> 01:45:16.095
be a lot more cautious on the actions that they have against your asset
1352
01:45:16.475 --> 01:45:18.575
if this asset is being held by entities
1353
01:45:19.115 --> 01:45:20.575
that could cause them problems.
1354
01:45:22.860 --> 01:45:28.865
Yeah. And also, Matt, I I cite them not because I necessarily believe them, and obviously, there's a lot of
1355
01:45:29.345 --> 01:45:36.245
room for their reporting to be to have holes in it, but they are state sponsored. They're funded by the Department of Homeland Security.
1356
01:45:36.690 --> 01:45:44.950
And it is the first graph on their report, and they only do, like, 2 reports a year. So it's, like, right up the top, number one graphic, and big green,
1357
01:45:45.425 --> 01:45:46.965
colors is United States
1358
01:45:47.344 --> 01:45:47.824
has,
1359
01:45:48.225 --> 01:45:53.045
3 times the amount of Bitcoin as China, pretty much. I mean, in in as much words. So that's just
1360
01:45:53.469 --> 01:46:02.530
going to people in the United States government, supported by Department of Homeland Security, saying, hey, this isn't a big issue. That's that's the message of the report that I see.
1361
01:46:04.094 --> 01:46:10.994
Which whether or not it's true is important to know when you're when you're thinking about their motivations. They're not thinking about it as a national security risk.
1362
01:46:11.500 --> 01:46:25.055
They're thinking about it. Okay. This is something that is in line with what the how the world operates. So now we just need to make sure that we, you know, cover the details. You know, taxes, reporting, blah blah blah. We're not looking to shut it down.
1363
01:46:31.330 --> 01:46:32.949
They they'll be making their decisions
1364
01:46:33.730 --> 01:46:40.615
on whatever that data is. Right? They don't it's like it's not that they don't care that the data's in inaccurate.
1365
01:46:40.995 --> 01:46:47.150
That's the data that they have. That's the data that they sponsor. So they they will make all their policies based on that.
1366
01:46:58.900 --> 01:46:59.400
So
1367
01:47:00.580 --> 01:47:01.800
with all that said,
1368
01:47:05.300 --> 01:47:07.239
I I I think I pretty much
1369
01:47:07.565 --> 01:47:08.705
agree with Aaron.
1370
01:47:11.405 --> 01:47:16.625
I don't know where we wanna take this conversation next. I mean, we've we've gone for an hour and 45 minutes.
1371
01:47:19.480 --> 01:47:21.660
I don't really have many topics
1372
01:47:22.280 --> 01:47:23.179
listed here.
1373
01:47:24.360 --> 01:47:26.699
Does anyone here have something they wanna discuss?
1374
01:47:27.945 --> 01:47:29.244
Ash rate mining.
1375
01:47:29.784 --> 01:47:30.284
Blockstream
1376
01:47:30.585 --> 01:47:36.605
creating, mobile mining unit containers to deploy with power companies as load balancing mechanisms.
1377
01:47:38.990 --> 01:47:46.130
I love how Blockstream just I I feel like they don't even know what business they're in. They just they just do everything. Doing everything, man.
1378
01:47:46.865 --> 01:47:50.725
Yeah. Pretty interesting to see them hop on to the the mobile container,
1379
01:47:52.225 --> 01:48:04.570
mining bandwagon, and they're trying to, well, they're saying that it that goes hand in hand with their blockchain satellite service. So there's no one on earth nowhere on earth where they can't put a Bitcoin mine on and have connectivity. Right?
1380
01:48:05.534 --> 01:48:08.514
Well, they still need they still need to transmit,
1381
01:48:08.895 --> 01:48:12.180
the block, so they need to have at least some kind of
1382
01:48:12.500 --> 01:48:13.320
cell connection.
1383
01:48:14.580 --> 01:48:17.640
You you could do it. Send out. You could do it with fancy
1384
01:48:18.260 --> 01:48:19.400
satellite uplinks.
1385
01:48:19.715 --> 01:48:22.695
There there are some fancy ones out there. I just don't think it'll be economical.
1386
01:48:27.770 --> 01:48:36.815
Could you elaborate on the load balancing aspect of that? It's like you you're just creating excess and just putting that energy towards mining. Is that what it
1387
01:48:38.474 --> 01:48:43.820
is? No. So if the Bitcoin miners are the buyer of last resort and even first resort,
1388
01:48:44.440 --> 01:48:47.340
the the narrative is that it that it actually incentivizes
1389
01:48:47.880 --> 01:48:50.380
renewable resources to be built out at scale
1390
01:48:50.795 --> 01:48:51.295
because,
1391
01:48:52.955 --> 01:48:57.055
the power grid or the company can can put a whole bunch of,
1392
01:48:57.915 --> 01:49:00.095
and let's forget about the fact if we think,
1393
01:49:00.550 --> 01:49:09.855
solar and wind is renewable or not. But that that's the narrative is that they can overbuild the renewable to support the grid, and then the Bitcoin miners can can use that energy,
1394
01:49:10.315 --> 01:49:12.795
when it's not when it's intermittent and also,
1395
01:49:13.275 --> 01:49:15.855
subsidize the the production of that infrastructure.
1396
01:49:24.160 --> 01:49:30.034
I mean, I think this idea of these mobile mining container units in general is absolutely
1397
01:49:33.375 --> 01:49:33.875
revolutionary.
1398
01:49:36.690 --> 01:49:41.170
It's great for Bitcoin. I think it's great for the world as well. I mean, I I think,
1399
01:49:42.130 --> 01:49:43.989
you know, my co host, Marty Bent,
1400
01:49:44.370 --> 01:49:45.590
on Rabbit Hole Recap
1401
01:49:46.385 --> 01:49:49.284
is is working with Great American Mining, and they've been
1402
01:49:49.585 --> 01:49:52.804
heavily focused in that field. So it's good to see more
1403
01:49:54.350 --> 01:49:57.090
companies kind of jump into that fray.
1404
01:49:58.110 --> 01:49:58.610
But
1405
01:49:59.070 --> 01:50:02.450
it's it's a perfect example of this greater idea that
1406
01:50:03.265 --> 01:50:09.284
there is a huge subset of this industry, particularly the, quote, unquote, crypto industry
1407
01:50:10.145 --> 01:50:11.925
that thinks that proof of work
1408
01:50:12.380 --> 01:50:15.520
is this issue with Bitcoin that needs to be solved
1409
01:50:15.820 --> 01:50:16.800
when, in fact,
1410
01:50:17.340 --> 01:50:19.440
this distributed proof of work is
1411
01:50:20.145 --> 01:50:25.685
really is is the the one of the greatest parts of the innovation. Like, it is absolutely groundbreaking
1412
01:50:26.305 --> 01:50:30.679
that you can take energy from anywhere in the world, and with just an Internet connection,
1413
01:50:31.060 --> 01:50:33.000
you can convert that into money.
1414
01:50:33.940 --> 01:50:34.679
And I
1415
01:50:35.140 --> 01:50:36.520
there's no way
1416
01:50:37.525 --> 01:50:43.785
in my mind that that is priced in. Like, even Bitcoiners underestimate that aspect, but especially
1417
01:50:44.245 --> 01:50:46.505
the greater crypto community, and then
1418
01:50:46.870 --> 01:50:49.370
normies have no fucking idea it's happening.
1419
01:50:50.390 --> 01:51:03.005
Yeah. There's no there's no such thing as a stranded asset or a stranded energy resource anywhere in the world anymore. And and if you believe Yeah. That's p. Give me one sec here. If you believe that that energy use
1420
01:51:03.385 --> 01:51:06.910
goes along with human flourishing and the flourishing of civilization,
1421
01:51:07.530 --> 01:51:11.550
then think about both utilizing those stranded assets all over the world,
1422
01:51:12.250 --> 01:51:25.135
like we do with with upstream data just on stranded natural gas assets that are otherwise can't get to market even though those wells have already been drilled. It's just sitting there. So like Marty likes to say, we bring we bring the market to the molecule,
1423
01:51:25.470 --> 01:51:28.530
and that gets turned into converted into monetary energy
1424
01:51:29.150 --> 01:51:31.810
and contributes to human flourishing and civilization.
1425
01:51:32.350 --> 01:51:35.915
But, see, do you hit the point right there? Right? The ESG crowd,
1426
01:51:37.095 --> 01:51:47.929
doesn't believe in human fellowship. Right? Like, they want less people on earth. They want earth to go back to, you know, like, I don't know, some period never existed.
1427
01:51:48.390 --> 01:51:48.890
Right?
1428
01:51:49.670 --> 01:51:52.684
And this really hits the nail sort of in the head there.
1429
01:51:53.385 --> 01:51:57.324
We are at odds with the people who are not for human flourish
1430
01:51:57.704 --> 01:51:59.324
because you can't have both.
1431
01:52:00.025 --> 01:52:00.525
Right?
1432
01:52:02.630 --> 01:52:04.090
That's the it's incompatible
1433
01:52:04.390 --> 01:52:13.745
with the Fiat system. Right? Like, they they think there's no alternative. They think we have to reduce our energy use because it's incompatible with with the feed inflationary system.
1434
01:52:14.045 --> 01:52:17.025
So, hopefully, they see that there is an alternative.
1435
01:52:17.725 --> 01:52:22.440
So that's the really fun part. I'm glad you brought that up, Sovereign, of the bringing on the,
1436
01:52:23.160 --> 01:52:28.860
geographically stressed energy sources. This is the art this is part of the article that I wrote for Bitcoin Magazine.
1437
01:52:30.025 --> 01:52:31.965
So we talked about how,
1438
01:52:32.345 --> 01:52:32.845
like,
1439
01:52:33.465 --> 01:52:33.965
basically,
1440
01:52:34.585 --> 01:52:40.760
it's kind of like a 4th turning event that, MBK was discussing where we're kind of shifting over to a focus on automation
1441
01:52:41.460 --> 01:52:50.205
and a not maybe not a decrease in jobs, but just a a temporary decrease in availability of employment and a a focus on automation to make things cheaper.
1442
01:52:51.305 --> 01:52:55.485
When when you bring on the fact that Bitcoin is bringing all of this
1443
01:52:56.090 --> 01:52:58.830
kind of it's not new, but it's newly discovered,
1444
01:52:59.290 --> 01:53:01.150
energy sources onto the grid.
1445
01:53:02.330 --> 01:53:04.110
In my mind, it starts to make
1446
01:53:05.325 --> 01:53:05.825
manufacturing,
1447
01:53:07.005 --> 01:53:07.505
exponentially
1448
01:53:07.885 --> 01:53:14.750
even cheaper because we're focusing on on automation, and then we also have almost, like, an excess or a surplus of energy
1449
01:53:15.370 --> 01:53:15.870
availability
1450
01:53:16.250 --> 01:53:18.910
to to, redirect to production and manufacturing.
1451
01:53:20.545 --> 01:53:25.685
And if if this is the case, then the way I see it is that cost of living should,
1452
01:53:26.465 --> 01:53:27.364
in air quotes,
1453
01:53:28.224 --> 01:53:28.724
get
1454
01:53:29.250 --> 01:53:35.430
exponentially cheaper than than what it is right now. Not not necessarily in dollar terms, but in, purchasing power.
1455
01:53:36.290 --> 01:53:40.275
I wonder what everybody in the on the panel thinks about the
1456
01:53:40.575 --> 01:53:44.275
We just had we just had Max join the speaker table.
1457
01:53:44.815 --> 01:53:46.435
I met Max through Marty.
1458
01:53:47.990 --> 01:53:51.690
Very interesting because Max actually came in from the energy side first
1459
01:53:52.150 --> 01:54:02.275
and got orange pilled via, basically, this exact conversation we're having. How's going, Max? Yeah, Matt. Thanks for having me up. That's exactly why I raised my hand to come up. It's because you guys are talking about what has
1460
01:54:02.895 --> 01:54:04.675
been kind of mind blowing to me,
1461
01:54:05.295 --> 01:54:11.830
for the last, call it, year of my life. So I could basically build my whole career around kind of, you know, energy infrastructure,
1462
01:54:12.290 --> 01:54:13.830
specifically oil field infrastructure,
1463
01:54:14.535 --> 01:54:20.635
and just, like, kind of the intersection between the people that produce energy and then the people that buy and consume energy. And so
1464
01:54:21.015 --> 01:54:24.179
have, like, an energy marketing business. We have a infrastructure business where
1465
01:54:24.480 --> 01:54:34.625
we build infrastructure. So, like, this whole concept of, like, you know, being able to bring the demand to wherever the energy is at is just like an earth shattering, like, career altering thing that just you know?
1466
01:54:35.005 --> 01:54:43.020
When I first found out about it, it was, like, literally pacing around my house, like, in the middle of the night just, like, thinking of all the implications that how it could change things, and it just
1467
01:54:43.640 --> 01:54:45.260
changes everything, really, because
1468
01:54:45.560 --> 01:54:50.780
all energy, the entire energy systems that we have built is really all around
1469
01:54:51.385 --> 01:54:58.685
transportation. Right? It's like, here's the sources and the places that we need to use energy, whether that's settlements with people, whether that's industrial manufacturing,
1470
01:54:59.225 --> 01:55:10.715
you know, whatever it may be, And then you have these different sources that you can generate energy. And so the entire energy logistics game is just, you know, the proximity to market and, like, how you get things to market and then the cost involved
1471
01:55:11.255 --> 01:55:15.995
with getting it there. And so this idea that you can take the highest value use case for energy
1472
01:55:16.375 --> 01:55:20.280
and move that anywhere in the world where you've got the lowest cost energy,
1473
01:55:20.900 --> 01:55:39.530
it just kinda changes everything in a bunch of different ways. And the aspect earlier about using it is like a battery technology. I mean, it makes too much sense. Like, right? Look what's going on with, like, ERCOT and the grid in Texas and, you know, the reality is, like, they just need more base load. Like, you need just more power generation in general, but you're never gonna build it because,
1474
01:55:39.989 --> 01:55:52.355
you know, to build a peaking plant or a facility where you've got excess power all the time, that's the real way to ensure these, like, disasters don't happen where the grid you know, where you're having rolling brownouts or you have these heat waves or these, you know, winter storms.
1475
01:55:52.960 --> 01:56:06.835
If you think about what you could do with Bitcoin mining, I mean, you could literally like, if the state were to embrace it like Texas or somebody and say, hey. Look. We're gonna build this, you know, power generation facility that's in excess of what we need. We're gonna store that energy in the form of a monetary value,
1476
01:56:07.695 --> 01:56:23.375
with Bitcoin. And then when we need it, we can redirect it to grid. I mean, everybody talking about large scale battery applications. It's like, why would you you know, first of all, large scale batteries are probably not gonna work for a lot of reasons, but Bitcoin mining could act as that, you know, basically a way to store energy
1477
01:56:24.074 --> 01:56:27.614
forever. There's no shelf life. You can move it the speed of light,
1478
01:56:28.340 --> 01:56:29.960
anywhere in the world, that value
1479
01:56:30.260 --> 01:56:35.560
directed at the highest value use case for whatever that may be. Like, if it's the state, they could put it towards their budget.
1480
01:56:36.955 --> 01:56:44.095
Just one interesting thing, but, I mean, I could ramble about it for hours. There's just so many implications of what this does to energy,
1481
01:56:44.460 --> 01:57:00.625
and that's just been the part for me that's been just the most exciting thing. And then I've now gone all the way down the the Bitcoin rabbit hole and have learned a bunch about Bitcoin on top of it, but I've come at it from that angle. And, again, it's just like it's the most underrated, in my opinion, and fascinating part of it, but it's probably because I'm biased towards that.
1482
01:57:02.910 --> 01:57:17.245
Sounds like you're, you're in my camp there. I haven't slept, in the last year and a half thinking about all this stuff down the the mining rabbit hole there, Max. But, yeah, you did a good job of explaining, like, how how Bitcoin has a load balancing mechanism for the grids can really incentivize,
1483
01:57:18.185 --> 01:57:21.640
building out that base load that otherwise wouldn't wouldn't be built,
1484
01:57:22.020 --> 01:57:25.400
because the miners can pay for that infrastructure. Right? So
1485
01:57:25.780 --> 01:57:37.295
and people are sometimes triggered when when we call it a battery. But like you said, it's it's not a battery to store that electricity. It's really a monetary battery that You should use the you the term Bitcoin can subsidize,
1486
01:57:39.270 --> 01:57:40.410
energy infrastructure.
1487
01:57:41.110 --> 01:57:48.475
Like, that that's that's the key. Right. Yeah. Subsidize. Yeah. Yeah. In the sense that why you talk about that, the commies understand. Energy capture.
1488
01:57:49.015 --> 01:57:51.275
No. The the commies understand subsidization.
1489
01:57:51.655 --> 01:57:54.315
Right? If you're saying that Bitcoin is now subsidizing,
1490
01:57:55.095 --> 01:57:55.835
the electrification
1491
01:57:56.215 --> 01:58:05.070
of a lot of areas that have issue to begin with. Right? This is a big deal now. Now this is this is a capital investment for the people for the people.
1492
01:58:06.055 --> 01:58:10.074
It's also a carbon capture. You know, if this energy is gonna be really state anyway,
1493
01:58:10.455 --> 01:58:16.019
then we can monetize it and use it to, you know, have some sort of green subsidy or whatever.
1494
01:58:16.480 --> 01:58:18.739
And that is also another positive framing.
1495
01:58:19.360 --> 01:58:23.699
And it also has less of a carbon footprint when it when it gets burned through the mining process.
1496
01:58:24.275 --> 01:58:38.090
Yeah. That's what I was gonna say is the one thing we focus on is, you know, if you look at, like, efficiency, which everybody wants to talk about, you know, the energy transition and all these things going on, and you hear all these big sweeping changes like the move to renewables or to EV or whatever.
1497
01:58:38.550 --> 01:59:06.125
But I think the reality is as we progress, you know, we're gonna gravitate towards efficiency, I hope. You know? I think if the if the federal government gets involved, there'll probably be a lack of efficiency. But if, you know, logic and innovation, you know, prevails, then there'll be a move towards more efficient things. And so, for example, like, in the gas markets is what I focus on a lot and natural gas. And so if you're in the field, you know, to get power on the grid, it's very inefficient. I mean, electricity, like, what I have to say is that it's convenient. It's not efficient.
1498
01:59:06.430 --> 01:59:11.730
What I mean by that is it takes, like, 60 to 70% of the energy is just lost converting it from,
1499
01:59:12.030 --> 01:59:23.785
you know, that field, that produces gas. You gotta move it on pipelines. You lose, you know, there's methane that gets lost. You have to burn fuel, get it to a power plant, and you gotta get it on the grid. The estimates show, like, 60 to 70%
1500
01:59:24.330 --> 01:59:43.370
of that energy is just wasted completely just to get your Tesla plugged in. And then, by the way, the Tesla loses 5% of its charge every day just idling. So it's extremely inefficient to electrify everything. But with Bitcoin, just putting Bitcoin mining in a natural gas field, you're now converting that energy at 90 plus percent,
1501
01:59:43.830 --> 01:59:49.195
depending on the pipe, you know, how far from the well it is. If it dried at the wellhead, it could be 99% efficiency. So
1502
01:59:49.675 --> 02:00:02.300
even though you're using maybe hydrocarbons to convert it into Bitcoin, which people will say that's dirty, you're actually, you know, pulling electricity at a much higher clip or that power to much higher clip. And then the comment about it being a battery, I mean, look,
1503
02:00:02.840 --> 02:00:23.550
it's at the end of the day, like, all energy is is a way to it's a means to an end. Right? It's you're gonna convert it into something that has value, and that value in theory is a higher economic case than it would otherwise be for just keeping the energy in the ground or wherever you're you're getting it from. And so if you can convert it into value that never goes away, that in fact goes up over time and that can be stored indefinitely,
1504
02:00:24.135 --> 02:00:48.525
I know we could frame it like a subsidy and that's a maybe a smart way to frame it, but the reality is is that whatever you use the energy for, at the end of the day, you're converting it to value, whether that's electricity, people are buying it at their house, whether that's, you know, whatever it may be, industrial uses, it gets converted to value eventually. And with Bitcoin mining, you can convert it to value right at the source and then harness that value forever and then direct that value to where you wanna direct it. So it's just it's just really powerful.
1505
02:00:50.780 --> 02:00:58.000
Yeah. So not only is Bitcoin a superior store of value, but it's also superior in transporting the value over space and time,
1506
02:00:58.485 --> 02:01:00.105
which is beautiful thing to see.
1507
02:01:00.965 --> 02:01:01.465
Exactly.
1508
02:01:05.500 --> 02:01:06.000
Yeah.
1509
02:01:09.020 --> 02:01:17.385
Stoic, do you have any thoughts on how China's or even the individual actors inside of China were able to do this? Do you see that as a,
1510
02:01:18.405 --> 02:01:24.889
you know, obviously, they did that for a while. They were able to, at times, get up to 65 or whatever percent of hash rate.
1511
02:01:25.190 --> 02:01:26.889
They built a tremendous amount of infrastructure,
1512
02:01:27.269 --> 02:01:30.969
a ton of different these of these machines, made a ton of money. But now,
1513
02:01:31.725 --> 02:01:38.180
I mean, in my view, it's preparation for the launch of DSAP in the Olympics February, but maybe you have a different view.
1514
02:01:38.740 --> 02:01:52.545
Do you see that as, like, a cycle of that a country can go through? They kind of maximize the amount of stranded energy that they or money that they can extract in the form of basically stealing from their own natural resources, or do you see that it can continue?
1515
02:01:56.260 --> 02:02:04.280
Oh, there's a lot in there, Aaron. I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to get out for China. Like like, obviously, I think we we agree that China crack down on Bitcoin
1516
02:02:04.805 --> 02:02:10.745
mining had less to do with energy use and more to do with, like you say, capital controls and and cracking down,
1517
02:02:11.205 --> 02:02:21.719
to for the introduction of their digital currency. Right? But do you are you asking, like, do you do you think do we think that they can get that hash rate back? Like, I don't think it's ever coming back in my opinion.
1518
02:02:22.925 --> 02:02:26.465
Okay. Yeah. That makes sense. No. I just was wondering how that
1519
02:02:27.565 --> 02:02:41.889
it's just I think I think I agree with you that it's kind of impossible to know because it's China. They don't say any of the things that are real. They don't report, so there's no filings to check. It would be very interesting, though, to know, and I think you probably would be interested as well,
1520
02:02:42.195 --> 02:02:43.415
you know, how much
1521
02:02:43.795 --> 02:02:44.295
of,
1522
02:02:45.075 --> 02:02:57.090
the energy that was produced at these hydroelectric plants or these various other things that were off peak or, you know, basically carbon capture type of activities that they were able to get Bitcoin out. And to have that as a
1523
02:02:57.710 --> 02:03:00.645
report to say, hey. You know, we can capture
1524
02:03:01.365 --> 02:03:09.465
I mean, obviously, every miner can act in their own interest and they can make money however they wanna make it. But if they had the data to say, hey. We know from very large scale,
1525
02:03:10.170 --> 02:03:18.190
operation of capturing stranded energy that we can monetize based on this x amount of dollars or an investment. We can capture x amount of dollars
1526
02:03:18.695 --> 02:03:21.995
as Bitcoin mined the value of it at today's prices,
1527
02:03:22.375 --> 02:03:27.835
which would equate to a savings of, you know, why. That would be interesting data, I think, to have.
1528
02:03:32.679 --> 02:03:36.139
Yeah. For sure, man. All I know is that it's interesting to see the actual I mean, ultimately,
1529
02:03:41.315 --> 02:04:12.775
just gonna say it's interesting to see how fast the hash rate's bouncing back now up to 120 now. And and our next difficulty adjustments looking like it's gonna be at least 15% here. So we're it's coming back hard right now, whether that's infrastructure coming online in Texas and Wyoming and North America and all and Alberta up here with us or or what's happening, but it's gonna be crazy this time next year considering how much hash rates getting deployed with all these public company as well. Like, you see guys like Marathon who who are looking to bump up from from 4 x hashes right now that have over 13 x hashes deployed by this time next year.
1530
02:04:13.815 --> 02:04:17.034
Difficulty in hash rates gonna be pretty crazy by next year, I think.
1531
02:04:17.655 --> 02:04:21.034
Yeah. I mean, I would add that I mean, it is
1532
02:04:21.510 --> 02:04:25.369
unequivocally bullish that we have this hash returning to the network,
1533
02:04:25.989 --> 02:04:28.330
whether that's new hardware or not. Having
1534
02:04:28.710 --> 02:04:35.195
floating hash that's unaccounted for is horrible for Bitcoin's security model, so I'm very relieved to see
1535
02:04:36.215 --> 02:04:37.355
it enter the network.
1536
02:04:38.135 --> 02:04:39.514
I would push back
1537
02:04:39.960 --> 02:04:42.380
that to me and maybe this is
1538
02:04:43.800 --> 02:04:46.780
a unpopular opinion on Bitcoin Twitter. To me,
1539
02:04:47.625 --> 02:04:52.285
seeing companies like Marathon, these large public American companies try and
1540
02:04:52.985 --> 02:04:54.125
increase their hash,
1541
02:04:54.630 --> 02:05:03.610
it becomes an existential threat to Bitcoin. Like, I'd prefer if we don't see large amounts of hash held by, like, a few publicly traded American companies.
1542
02:05:04.265 --> 02:05:06.365
So this is the thing, Mehmet.
1543
02:05:07.065 --> 02:05:14.260
The problem is, like, you know, if we if we respect the the spirit of Bitcoin, which is Bitcoin is your enemy's money. Right?
1544
02:05:15.360 --> 02:05:16.160
It's inevitable
1545
02:05:16.640 --> 02:05:20.820
On Jake's side. That large entities will attempt to do those things. So
1546
02:05:21.605 --> 02:05:23.705
the question is, how do we handle
1547
02:05:24.645 --> 02:05:26.105
it? It's not a question
1548
02:05:26.485 --> 02:05:33.550
of, like they they will do it. Right? That is the game theory. The game theory is for these entities to seek,
1549
02:05:34.090 --> 02:05:35.150
Bitcoin solutions,
1550
02:05:35.530 --> 02:05:37.389
mining, holding, or whatever it is.
1551
02:05:38.285 --> 02:05:44.385
So so I like that little MBK. I'll handle what MBK wants to see. Are you wrestling with Bigfoot? Is that what I'm hearing?
1552
02:05:45.805 --> 02:05:47.105
I'm feeding my kids.
1553
02:05:48.420 --> 02:05:53.480
No. But MBK, I don't disagree. Like, of course, Bitcoin's your enemies. And, like, I'm not,
1554
02:05:54.180 --> 02:05:57.160
I'm not gonna actively try and stop them from
1555
02:05:57.765 --> 02:05:58.985
acquiring Hash.
1556
02:05:59.285 --> 02:06:06.665
My hope is that right. My hope is my hope is that Hash gets distributed sufficiently, which it seems to be doing.
1557
02:06:07.130 --> 02:06:11.230
I just would push back on cheering the idea that it's bullish for Bitcoin
1558
02:06:11.530 --> 02:06:12.670
if they do
1559
02:06:13.130 --> 02:06:16.670
gobble the hash. No. So so I I think it is bullish for Bitcoin because,
1560
02:06:17.014 --> 02:06:18.474
see, their competitors
1561
02:06:19.335 --> 02:06:26.190
that being either other companies, other nation states, whatever reasons they are, right, they will see them,
1562
02:06:26.890 --> 02:06:30.750
accumulating Bitcoin, accumulating Hash Power, and you'll see that as a threat.
1563
02:06:31.130 --> 02:06:33.310
And they will try to counter that
1564
02:06:34.325 --> 02:06:37.705
with their own call let's call it their own Bitcoin,
1565
02:06:38.405 --> 02:06:38.905
power,
1566
02:06:39.285 --> 02:06:41.625
right, if that's hash rate or accumulation.
1567
02:06:42.085 --> 02:06:43.140
So so, like,
1568
02:06:43.460 --> 02:06:44.820
having an entity that is,
1569
02:06:47.060 --> 02:06:50.600
we don't know their intentions. It's impossible to know their intentions, but
1570
02:06:51.335 --> 02:06:53.355
their intentions seem to be just economic.
1571
02:06:54.614 --> 02:06:58.395
Right? If there if there is an act referring to get rich on Bitcoin,
1572
02:06:58.940 --> 02:07:02.560
especially a publicly traded company that's a little bit more clear about
1573
02:07:03.020 --> 02:07:06.560
things, that's a good thing. That's a least worst entity
1574
02:07:07.180 --> 02:07:07.920
to start
1575
02:07:08.405 --> 02:07:09.864
becoming a a super
1576
02:07:10.565 --> 02:07:11.465
economic node.
1577
02:07:12.245 --> 02:07:15.225
Right? So I'd rather have them do it than say,
1578
02:07:15.605 --> 02:07:16.825
I don't know, MediaTek,
1579
02:07:17.310 --> 02:07:19.090
which is essentially a Chinese
1580
02:07:19.470 --> 02:07:23.970
chipmaker that is an arm of the of the Chinese state. Right?
1581
02:07:24.670 --> 02:07:26.770
So so so now maybe because,
1582
02:07:27.315 --> 02:07:27.815
MicroStrategy
1583
02:07:28.115 --> 02:07:39.360
is accumulating so much Bitcoin, their direct competitors might try to do it, or other indirect competitors that are large companies will try to do the same either against them or with them. So so it's,
1584
02:07:39.820 --> 02:07:41.520
it's the least of the worst,
1585
02:07:42.699 --> 02:07:48.595
examples, let's say. But do we not think that American corporation just sufficiently sized
1586
02:07:49.215 --> 02:07:49.715
can,
1587
02:07:50.575 --> 02:07:53.715
not be co opted by US government pressures?
1588
02:07:55.040 --> 02:08:00.500
Oh, they can all be co opted. They are all co opted every day. They all do KYC and AML.
1589
02:08:01.255 --> 02:08:05.355
So, like, they're all captured. Exactly. But but they
1590
02:08:05.655 --> 02:08:08.235
but they can only be coerced to a certain extent.
1591
02:08:08.830 --> 02:08:18.130
Right? Because if the coercion makes their bottom line go down, shareholders have a problem. If shareholders have a problem, the stock market tanks. Right?
1592
02:08:18.895 --> 02:08:20.035
So there is
1593
02:08:20.415 --> 02:08:21.475
a a a fine equilibrium,
1594
02:08:22.175 --> 02:08:35.470
right, of how much force the government can apply on its stock market. I mean, look what a z has been doing to the Chinese stock market. It's an absolute cluster fuck. He's destroying all the wealth that was created in China
1595
02:08:35.815 --> 02:08:39.035
because he's sort of freaking out on how to stay in power.
1596
02:08:39.495 --> 02:08:42.235
And and it's not unheard of for for a Chinese
1597
02:08:42.695 --> 02:08:43.515
large emperor
1598
02:08:44.070 --> 02:08:46.810
to to do the same. It is in their history
1599
02:08:47.590 --> 02:08:50.490
to to shoot themselves in the foot over this kind of stuff.
1600
02:08:51.864 --> 02:09:01.005
You can almost view it like the independent like, if you look at, like, in the US, you've got, you know, these independent oil and gas producers, and this is just the lens that I view it through. They're small and midsized guys.
1601
02:09:01.489 --> 02:09:04.790
Many of them private, you know, money or just individuals, entrepreneurs,
1602
02:09:05.489 --> 02:09:09.110
and they can actually have a huge impact on the amount of production
1603
02:09:09.585 --> 02:09:12.244
of energy. And you've got kind of the super majors,
1604
02:09:12.945 --> 02:09:25.010
like, Exons and of the world and Chevron's and these big companies, BP. And, you know, what you'll see is you'll see these cycles where kinda you know, they'll go through periods where the super majors look like they control everything. And, you know, there is times when,
1605
02:09:25.375 --> 02:09:49.060
they they can have huge impact on, like, the price of the of oil and gas because of the their activities. But then you also look at the amount of red tape and bureaucracy and overhead that come involved with these large public companies, and it's almost like they're their own worst enemies in a lot of ways. And the small and independent guys can be more nimble and can do more than these bigger guys, and they're handicapped by these public markets, and they're handicapped by these rules and regulations. And so in a lot of ways,
1606
02:09:50.180 --> 02:10:00.045
there's some things that they do. The advocacy for the industry can be a positive. Other times, like, with this ESG movement, like, they're getting attacked. Like, Exxon's board got activist investors on it,
1607
02:10:00.425 --> 02:10:24.125
and they're losing value for their shareholders. And the big winners in that are gonna be the independents. They can play by their own rules, and they can work within the framework. So I don't know that it's necessarily I'm arguing that it's bullish, but I think it's again, like you were saying, it's probably gonna be natural, and you're gonna have different people that are different types of players. And I think it's probably just the inevitable evolution, it seems like, at least. But I see some parallels there maybe, through our industry.
1608
02:10:24.870 --> 02:10:50.619
Yeah. Absolutely. And to your point, Matt, I do think there are we just going out of the frying pan into the fire from China centralization risk to North American centralization risk? And probably not, but the fact is a large portion of the hash rate will be controlled by these publicly traded companies in the United States that are subject to the fiat cutbacks of the publicly traded markets, right? So I do say a bit of see a bit of a bifurcation of the network where you have a whole bunch of Hash rate controlled by public markets and then
1609
02:11:00.585 --> 02:11:10.360
at at the end of the day, I mean, the great thing is that is that the miners don't control the network. Right? It comes down to the individual nodes. And so as long as we keep those decentralized, I think we're good. Right?
1610
02:11:16.165 --> 02:11:21.190
Yeah. I mean, I I'm I'm kind of it's it's kind of a theoretical argument because I don't expect,
1611
02:11:23.650 --> 02:11:25.830
I don't expect large amounts of hash.
1612
02:11:26.930 --> 02:11:33.355
I I don't I don't expect, for instance I mean, if we're gonna talk theoretically, I don't expect, for instance, over 50% of hash to be,
1613
02:11:35.014 --> 02:11:35.915
held by
1614
02:11:36.340 --> 02:11:38.440
large American publicly traded companies.
1615
02:11:39.380 --> 02:11:39.880
I
1616
02:11:40.340 --> 02:11:45.240
I Matt, like, I just like to to always remind people when we're talking about 50%
1617
02:11:46.405 --> 02:11:47.864
and and and hashing,
1618
02:11:48.885 --> 02:11:51.385
like, it just it takes a lot more than 50%
1619
02:11:51.765 --> 02:11:54.825
to cause any problems to Bitcoin, and there is also coordination.
1620
02:11:56.450 --> 02:12:00.950
So it's just there might be, like, new people listening to this. Like,
1621
02:12:01.490 --> 02:12:05.565
you know, it's something like, you can never have the conversation of 51% attack
1622
02:12:06.184 --> 02:12:14.380
without ever, like, sort of mentioning that it takes a lot more than that and the level of coordination, and it's not sustainable either. Right?
1623
02:12:14.920 --> 02:12:27.085
So it it is honestly unconcerning. You can almost look at Bitcoin right now as over secured. Yeah. We have way more capacity than we need. Maybe our age is showing, but to me, the real fear was when Bitmain controlled so much.
1624
02:12:27.490 --> 02:12:32.470
And once we passed that, it was really a major turning point, and it's still not really priced in.
1625
02:12:33.010 --> 02:12:34.310
Yeah. Remember, like,
1626
02:12:34.835 --> 02:12:42.695
you know, it's in the interest of an actor that has overcapacity of mining to shut the fuck up about heavy overcapacity. Right? Probably anonymously mine,
1627
02:12:43.460 --> 02:12:45.000
differently with the overcapacity.
1628
02:12:45.620 --> 02:12:47.800
Because as soon as you hint
1629
02:12:48.100 --> 02:12:57.305
or posture that you have too much capacity, you undermine your own bags. So it's all built into the game theory of Bitcoin. We don't have to worry about this stuff. And,
1630
02:12:57.845 --> 02:13:01.180
honestly, 51% attack at this stage, at this
1631
02:13:01.640 --> 02:13:08.055
size, it is not something that concerns us anymore, not to the degree that, you know, back in the day, it could have killed us.
1632
02:13:08.455 --> 02:13:12.315
And even when Bitmain had all that capacity, it was still nonconcerning.
1633
02:13:12.935 --> 02:13:18.370
If we go back even further, I can't remember the the the mining pool. This must have been 2013,
1634
02:13:18.990 --> 02:13:19.490
maybe,
1635
02:13:19.870 --> 02:13:21.090
2012, maybe.
1636
02:13:21.390 --> 02:13:36.350
There was a pool that amassed g hash. Oh, it was g hash. Right? That had that amassed over I think it was close to 60% of the money. They they kicked out people from their pool not to hurt their bad debt. Also double spent gambling
1637
02:13:36.810 --> 02:13:37.870
gambling services.
1638
02:13:38.250 --> 02:13:39.390
Yes. Yes.
1639
02:13:40.489 --> 02:13:44.385
Very different world, very different capacity, very different distribution of
1640
02:13:45.005 --> 02:13:45.505
Bitcoin.
1641
02:13:46.125 --> 02:13:47.824
100%. I mean, I think,
1642
02:13:49.485 --> 02:13:54.250
I mean, I think we've hit the the natural endpoint of of this this topic.
1643
02:13:55.750 --> 02:13:58.170
We've been going 2 hours and 15 minutes.
1644
02:13:58.790 --> 02:14:00.090
Evan Awesome conversation.
1645
02:14:01.045 --> 02:14:06.744
Yeah. Absolutely awesome conversation. Evan, you haven't spoken at all. Are you there? Do you have,
1646
02:14:07.364 --> 02:14:08.905
anything you'd like to say?
1647
02:14:10.350 --> 02:14:11.970
Hey. I chimed in a little bit.
1648
02:14:13.310 --> 02:14:17.075
No. I mean, unless you guys wanna keep running, we can hit a different topic.
1649
02:14:17.715 --> 02:14:18.915
You know, I've just been,
1650
02:14:19.395 --> 02:14:23.255
soaking in all the discussion from the minors and the game theory.
1651
02:14:24.489 --> 02:14:26.909
It's been, it's been quite a good rip.
1652
02:14:27.770 --> 02:14:30.270
Do you have a you have a good topic for us?
1653
02:14:31.290 --> 02:14:33.535
I'm sort of interested to hear people's,
1654
02:14:34.095 --> 02:14:35.935
you know, predictions for what's gonna
1655
02:14:36.575 --> 02:14:38.675
how things are gonna shake out in El Salvador.
1656
02:14:40.095 --> 02:14:44.980
They've got their launch of their new governmental wallet, Chivo, on September
1657
02:14:45.360 --> 02:14:45.860
7th.
1658
02:14:46.480 --> 02:14:46.980
And,
1659
02:14:47.520 --> 02:14:51.700
every citizen is receiving something like, what, $30 worth of Bitcoin?
1660
02:14:56.965 --> 02:15:00.345
Yeah. Moody's just today threatened to downgrade the
1661
02:15:00.880 --> 02:15:04.980
the sovereign debt if they decide to go forward with it, which they probably will.
1662
02:15:05.840 --> 02:15:09.284
I mean, what what can we say? I mean, it's it is what it is.
1663
02:15:09.744 --> 02:15:11.125
This is a $25,000,000,000
1664
02:15:11.744 --> 02:15:15.284
GDP country that's trying to roll out Bitcoin as a legal tender
1665
02:15:15.665 --> 02:15:16.804
within 3 months.
1666
02:15:18.020 --> 02:15:22.760
They have a wallet, which we have no idea how it operates that's gonna somehow
1667
02:15:23.700 --> 02:15:24.200
allow
1668
02:15:24.580 --> 02:15:25.080
totally,
1669
02:15:26.420 --> 02:15:27.160
fee less,
1670
02:15:28.085 --> 02:15:29.545
absolutely zero commission,
1671
02:15:29.845 --> 02:15:30.585
no spread,
1672
02:15:31.605 --> 02:15:32.645
settlement between,
1673
02:15:34.085 --> 02:15:35.760
dollars and Bitcoin inexplicably.
1674
02:15:36.300 --> 02:15:38.400
We have no idea how it's happening. It's just,
1675
02:15:40.300 --> 02:15:46.535
it's what can what can what can we say? It's apparently, it's gonna happen. Happen. We're we're all gonna be amazed and astounded as far as I can tell.
1676
02:15:48.515 --> 02:15:51.895
Well, my understanding is that the government, while it will not be ready,
1677
02:15:53.410 --> 02:16:02.954
on September 7th when it becomes legal tender, so we shall see how that plays out. I hope it's not too much of a clusterfuck. I know, a lot of private companies and,
1678
02:16:04.054 --> 02:16:08.074
open source projects are trying to bridge the divide so that that
1679
02:16:08.430 --> 02:16:11.010
Salvadorians are ready when that happens. But,
1680
02:16:11.790 --> 02:16:13.090
as far as I'm hearing,
1681
02:16:13.870 --> 02:16:14.850
from my sources,
1682
02:16:16.005 --> 02:16:19.145
the government wallet is way far behind, and
1683
02:16:19.525 --> 02:16:20.985
there's a lot of issues there.
1684
02:16:22.005 --> 02:16:27.690
So I would presume the biggest issue there is that that liquidity that's swapping over those dollars to sets,
1685
02:16:29.670 --> 02:16:33.689
and, you know, maintain being able to maintain those, banking relationships,
1686
02:16:34.485 --> 02:16:36.024
to facilitate that all.
1687
02:16:36.885 --> 02:16:45.520
You know, otherwise, I'd feel like, you know, the rest of the wallet shouldn't be so crazy. It's gonna be custodial lightning wallet. Right? The government, is gonna have their own
1688
02:16:45.980 --> 02:16:49.340
centralized node. Of course, it's probably gonna be subject to,
1689
02:16:50.476 --> 02:16:52.175
you know, all sorts of surveillance
1690
02:16:52.476 --> 02:16:53.056
and monitoring.
1691
02:16:54.315 --> 02:16:59.695
But, yeah, that that other part of the puzzle of the liquidity and and the swapping of those dollars seamlessly,
1692
02:17:01.100 --> 02:17:07.075
remains the biggest question mark to me. I I mean, I I feel like at one point, I heard that, Strike was gonna help,
1693
02:17:08.035 --> 02:17:10.535
with some of the conversion process, but,
1694
02:17:11.476 --> 02:17:13.255
beyond that, I I really don't know.
1695
02:17:13.635 --> 02:17:14.535
They are not.
1696
02:17:15.580 --> 02:17:16.960
Interesting. They're not.
NOTE
Transcription provided by Podhome.fm
Created: 3/17/2024 4:31:10 PM
Duration: 8917.395
Channels: 1
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2
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4
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6
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No.
7
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I'm going to do that. Don't make me regret it.
8
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9
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10
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usually, we have Citadel dispatch on Tuesdays. Happy Bitcoin Tuesday to everybody.
11
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I wasn't able to put together a solid topic with guests this week.
12
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Seems a lot of people are on vacation.
13
00:00:54.879 --> 00:00:56.899
So instead of pushing a show
14
00:00:59.005 --> 00:01:04.784
that was not up to my standards, I decided that we would try this, a more open ended,
15
00:01:05.645 --> 00:01:06.945
happy hour style,
16
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discussion.
17
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It is being recorded.
18
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I am 99%
19
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sure the recording will work,
20
00:01:15.220 --> 00:01:15.720
but
21
00:01:16.895 --> 00:01:18.515
what's that saying? Every plan,
22
00:01:19.534 --> 00:01:28.570
doesn't survive initial contact, so we will see after this happens if it actually recorded. If it does, you may be listening to this on the Citadel dispatch
23
00:01:29.110 --> 00:01:30.090
podcast feed.
24
00:01:30.470 --> 00:01:32.970
I apologize if the audio quality is
25
00:01:33.415 --> 00:01:36.155
inferior to what you're used to. It is what it is.
26
00:01:36.695 --> 00:01:39.995
Feel free to skip this episode if you choose to.
27
00:01:41.780 --> 00:01:45.960
Next week, I already have a solid topic and guests lined up. We're gonna be talking about
28
00:01:46.340 --> 00:01:48.200
privacy focused, open source,
29
00:01:48.579 --> 00:01:49.079
routers,
30
00:01:50.225 --> 00:01:58.485
you know, that that Internet box you have in your house that is most likely spying on you and how you can choose to have a better replacement.
31
00:01:58.939 --> 00:02:01.119
So this is gonna be more open ended.
32
00:02:02.380 --> 00:02:03.840
Just kinda shoot the shit,
33
00:02:05.100 --> 00:02:10.285
and, you know, there's I feel like there's a lot of stuff that's been going on this week. I personally have been,
34
00:02:11.945 --> 00:02:16.925
I don't know. I've been feeling like my back's against the wall a little bit in terms of narrative shifts, and,
35
00:02:17.720 --> 00:02:23.819
I mean, we got that Space Force guy that's, like, tweeting out that Bitcoin is violence and that we're a cyber militia. So,
36
00:02:24.360 --> 00:02:36.055
personally, that's kind of where my head is at. But, I have a whole list of topics just in case the conversation gets stale. I'll be rotating people in and out on the speaker stage. Feel free to request
37
00:02:37.040 --> 00:02:39.620
speaker permission, and I will get you up here.
38
00:02:40.959 --> 00:02:42.260
I sent out a tweet.
39
00:02:42.959 --> 00:02:44.980
If you respond to that tweet with questions,
40
00:02:45.575 --> 00:02:47.355
we may or may not get to them,
41
00:02:48.855 --> 00:02:53.835
but we will try to get to them. Right now, all I got is Enrique up on the speaker stage
42
00:02:54.360 --> 00:02:57.819
of cold card. Repeat guest is still dispatch. How's it going, MBK?
43
00:02:59.560 --> 00:03:03.580
44
00:03:05.795 --> 00:03:07.975
45
00:03:08.435 --> 00:03:08.935
46
00:03:10.515 --> 00:03:11.015
47
00:03:11.395 --> 00:03:12.455
That's all you?
48
00:03:13.410 --> 00:03:14.050
49
00:03:14.690 --> 00:03:16.630
these these were over 70 foot.
50
00:03:17.010 --> 00:03:19.830
Like, I need I need to enlist people
51
00:03:20.130 --> 00:03:22.070
52
00:03:24.665 --> 00:03:26.845
53
00:03:27.385 --> 00:03:28.925
He just, recently
54
00:03:30.140 --> 00:03:34.560
had his most famous day, I would say, Ben. What what the fuck happened in 1971
55
00:03:34.940 --> 00:03:36.480
when trending? How was that?
56
00:03:37.885 --> 00:03:40.185
57
00:03:41.565 --> 00:03:49.160
bigger than I thought I was gonna we were just gonna try to, like, get Nick Carter in a in a room, and then Nick Carter had some other things he had to do. And then fucking Jack
58
00:03:49.540 --> 00:03:51.240
tweeted it, and then it was like,
59
00:03:51.700 --> 00:03:52.760
Lummis and,
60
00:03:53.860 --> 00:04:05.595
Davidson tweeted. Everybody tweeted. So I appreciate all the support. It was awesome to get the word out about I mean, not just WTO happened in 1971, but, like, you know, the whole concept itself. There's a lot of posts from from all over the space. It's great.
61
00:04:09.390 --> 00:04:13.409
62
00:04:14.605 --> 00:04:16.705
spaces, I think, yesterday or the day before,
63
00:04:17.725 --> 00:04:18.465
to discuss,
64
00:04:18.845 --> 00:04:19.824
Bitcoin's violence.
65
00:04:20.445 --> 00:04:21.540
Did you join in?
66
00:04:22.180 --> 00:04:23.940
67
00:04:25.220 --> 00:04:27.240
you wanna give, us a synopsis?
68
00:04:28.580 --> 00:04:29.080
69
00:04:29.535 --> 00:04:32.755
So so I don't think the guy is coming in bad faith.
70
00:04:34.335 --> 00:04:39.850
We we had it was kinda cool because I don't know if he's allowed to or not to join because of his job,
71
00:04:40.550 --> 00:04:42.730
but we had another guy who who's
72
00:04:43.405 --> 00:04:45.264
who seems to be qualified
73
00:04:45.645 --> 00:04:49.104
or well versed enough in the military sort of, speak,
74
00:04:49.485 --> 00:04:49.985
maneuver.
75
00:04:50.285 --> 00:04:51.025
What is it?
76
00:04:52.370 --> 00:04:54.630
Something maneuver. They have a term.
77
00:04:56.370 --> 00:04:59.910
And he was sort of, like, playing the the
78
00:05:00.449 --> 00:05:03.655
the that that Space Force guy for us, right,
79
00:05:04.275 --> 00:05:07.095
while we were trying to sort of discuss and understand this.
80
00:05:07.715 --> 00:05:09.030
And it's it's like,
81
00:05:09.510 --> 00:05:13.210
you know, when you were a hammer, everything is in hail. Right? So,
82
00:05:14.630 --> 00:05:16.650
the guy has written this piece,
83
00:05:18.705 --> 00:05:19.764
you know, with a military
84
00:05:20.225 --> 00:05:21.925
sort of audience. Right?
85
00:05:22.785 --> 00:05:23.764
It is unfortunate
86
00:05:24.145 --> 00:05:25.445
because it it does
87
00:05:27.040 --> 00:05:40.145
drag us into a narrative that we don't wanna be in because Bitcoin is peace, and we don't wanna be characterized as, like, a militia or anything like that because that ticker will be on CNN at some point.
88
00:05:41.485 --> 00:05:41.985
But
89
00:05:42.285 --> 00:05:44.865
I don't think the paper itself or that guy
90
00:05:45.550 --> 00:05:47.970
himself was trying to sort of,
91
00:05:49.230 --> 00:05:53.410
to to do this in bad faith. I think that's just you know, he wrote his thesis.
92
00:05:54.195 --> 00:05:56.695
It is fair logic in there,
93
00:05:57.795 --> 00:06:02.055
but, we do part ways when it comes to definitions
94
00:06:02.740 --> 00:06:07.080
and what is violence and the definition of violence outside of military
95
00:06:07.539 --> 00:06:08.039
maneuvering
96
00:06:08.659 --> 00:06:09.159
terminology.
97
00:06:10.715 --> 00:06:13.615
I think that's sort of, like, where the the water got muddy.
98
00:06:14.475 --> 00:06:18.735
99
00:06:19.120 --> 00:06:22.180
So so we're talking about there's this guy on Space Force,
100
00:06:23.600 --> 00:06:27.765
the new arm of our US military, I guess, is part of the air force,
101
00:06:28.565 --> 00:06:30.185
who had, like, a LinkedIn post
102
00:06:31.445 --> 00:06:32.265
that was,
103
00:06:33.285 --> 00:06:37.065
instead of mutually assured destruction, Bitcoin is mutually assured preservation,
104
00:06:38.250 --> 00:06:43.230
which captured a lot of people's imaginations. They really liked it. Then he ended up on Twitter.
105
00:06:43.770 --> 00:06:46.990
He ended up going viral on Twitter. He got a ton of engagement.
106
00:06:48.285 --> 00:06:52.545
And then he started switching into this, like, Bitcoin is violence thing. And
107
00:06:54.045 --> 00:06:57.240
I thought, you know, maybe it was, like, too transparent
108
00:06:57.540 --> 00:06:58.920
to to be, like,
109
00:07:00.900 --> 00:07:07.095
some kind of attack or, you know, people are calling him a spook. He's literally a spook. Like, on his LinkedIn, his resume says spook.
110
00:07:08.595 --> 00:07:11.335
But then today, he tweeted out, you know, that
111
00:07:11.710 --> 00:07:12.530
Bitcoin's a
112
00:07:13.230 --> 00:07:14.690
decentralized cyber militia.
113
00:07:15.790 --> 00:07:19.010
And in America, you know, we have constitutional rights,
114
00:07:19.745 --> 00:07:25.044
but after the Patriot Act, it's become pretty much the de facto standard that,
115
00:07:25.585 --> 00:07:27.685
you know, if you label a group terrorists,
116
00:07:28.690 --> 00:07:32.550
then they no longer have any kind of real constitutional protections.
117
00:07:33.169 --> 00:07:36.710
And this is a narrative that I was already concerned about,
118
00:07:37.335 --> 00:07:39.115
and it kind of feels like
119
00:07:40.375 --> 00:07:49.350
it wouldn't be surprising if his next tweet after the cyber malicious stuff is like, oh, we're terrorists. And then, you know, and then you start seeing it on CNBC
120
00:07:49.650 --> 00:07:55.030
and all over mainstream media and stuff. And then before you know it, private Bitcoin usage
121
00:07:56.935 --> 00:08:01.595
starts getting hit really hard. So I it's a really slippery, dangerous slope,
122
00:08:02.935 --> 00:08:05.755
and the fact that anyone who calls them out, he blocks,
123
00:08:06.700 --> 00:08:07.600
isn't very,
124
00:08:10.540 --> 00:08:12.080
reassuring. You know? I
125
00:08:12.780 --> 00:08:14.720
126
00:08:15.095 --> 00:08:17.995
Like, he he he's totally, like, new to Twitter.
127
00:08:18.455 --> 00:08:24.980
He's coming from a very sort of, like, specific way on relating to people and ideas.
128
00:08:27.520 --> 00:08:29.620
And and he doesn't know how to do Twitter.
129
00:08:30.640 --> 00:08:34.084
And, you know, like, when when when you mask the Hornets,
130
00:08:34.464 --> 00:08:35.584
the our,
131
00:08:37.584 --> 00:08:39.685
wrongly called cyber militia.
132
00:08:40.620 --> 00:08:58.770
133
00:09:00.430 --> 00:09:05.410
that these are tools that are only used by criminals, that if you use it, it's suspicious behavior.
134
00:09:06.415 --> 00:09:06.915
And,
135
00:09:08.015 --> 00:09:17.899
I mean, we we're watching it play out with encryption right now. Like, they're already saying, like, the Taliban the the reason the Taliban was able to take over Afghanistan so quickly
136
00:09:18.279 --> 00:09:19.899
wasn't because of our incompetence.
137
00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:28.435
It was because WhatsApp. Yeah. Because WhatsApp's encrypted, and they were using encrypted messengers, and we need to be able to stop them from using that. Right?
138
00:09:32.250 --> 00:09:41.495
We got Dylan up on the stage. Dylan, I've been trying to get you on dispatch for a while. I'm looking forward to finally making that happen, but at least this is, like, an intermediary step.
139
00:09:43.315 --> 00:09:46.774
140
00:09:47.350 --> 00:09:53.270
141
00:09:54.230 --> 00:10:02.065
his intentions. I think I think the like, we've been talking about like, Bitcoiners have been talking about, like, kinda like a global hash war for a while and, like,
142
00:10:02.685 --> 00:10:05.185
you know, the mutual preservation thing is kinda interesting.
143
00:10:05.565 --> 00:10:06.865
I think that has legs.
144
00:10:07.230 --> 00:10:10.129
But, yeah, the tone of his his tweets over the last,
145
00:10:10.750 --> 00:10:15.035
couple days has has taken a weird turn. But, I mean, definitely interesting to
146
00:10:15.514 --> 00:10:18.475
to kinda see that that narrative of, you know,
147
00:10:18.875 --> 00:10:20.014
Bitcoin as this
148
00:10:20.555 --> 00:10:21.694
strategic national,
149
00:10:22.634 --> 00:10:35.495
I don't know, just like, you know, kind of the game theory, the the global hash war that we've been talking about take hold. I don't know if it's like, I don't know if if I'm more on NVK side or your side, but, I I've been going back and forth on on his intentions.
150
00:10:37.610 --> 00:10:40.029
151
00:10:40.330 --> 00:10:50.435
I don't think we're gonna ever be able to avoid or shut down these conversations. Right? The bigger Bitcoin gets, the more the narrative is gonna get out of our hands. Right? We we can't baby it.
152
00:10:50.975 --> 00:10:51.475
So,
153
00:10:52.590 --> 00:10:55.890
we're gonna have to just sort of, like, meet them where they are.
154
00:10:56.830 --> 00:10:57.810
If he is,
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say, bad faith, right, he does have the DOD behind him, and he will find an audience that's much bigger than ours.
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So, if if we engage with him and we're able to
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to to counter his points in a way that's obvious that
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Sorry, NVK.
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I just think it's a very dangerous narrative that people need to be careful about because it's gonna be used against us by our enemies whether he's an enemy or not.
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to try to, like, you know, make paint any picture. And I think in this case, it's just it's not a helpful picture that we're painting.
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You know, it's it's like trying to say that, you know, it's
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if you need water, right, to live, then then, like, water is violence. Right? Like, Bitcoin is a tool that we use and, you know, any tool can be
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used as a weapon, I suppose.
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So that's you know, it's like saying hammers or or weapons or whatever. Right? I don't know. I just think it's it's it's just this framing issue. It's simple framing, and I think we pushed back on that pretty well. And,
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I'm glad that we did.
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And and to be fair, like, he didn't block a lot of people who are trying to engage. But, you know, when you have a 100 people
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sort of, like, at the same time making the same point at you and and you're not used to Twitter, you know, the block does become a useful
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tool.
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it's like he came in hot, and then everybody was like, get fucked, and he immediately switched his too.
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well prepared Bitcoiner Bitcoiners are to enter conversation.
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So, like, everybody is always underprepared
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when engaging with Bitcoiners,
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and that become very clear very fast.
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Chaz of Lightning Junkies. Fantastic podcast. If you're not subscribed already, you should go subscribe to it in your favorite podcast app, ideally a podcasting 2.0 app,
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so you can stream stats to support his show.
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Do you have any opinion on this before we, move to more, positive topics?
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So, like, I think I care less about the guy in particular. Like, I've been trying to
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not respond to any of those threads or even give a shit if I could help it.
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But, like,
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some some part of his
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thought process may or may not be valid.
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And I I I think I just posted my opinion of it and it's,
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you know, it's not violence. Bitcoin is not violence. It's resistance.
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So, like, the thing that I used to think about years ago was, you know, there might be some future where governments try to ban all, try to ban Bitcoin
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and try to really,
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you know, put the nails in
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and make it a really difficult adversarial environment.
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And so in that sense, like, if if you were going to really push for the disintermediation
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of the state, which I think some non zero percentage of people in this room kinda want that,
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like,
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you're going to use Bitcoin in resistance against the state.
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So he was calling, you know,
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like, that word. I can't remember what he said exactly,
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militia.
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So, like, I'm not sure that cyber
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Decentralized
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cyber autonomous militia or decentralized autonomous cyber militia.
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Like, if we were actually in that kind of
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adversarial scenario, I
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I don't like, you could call it something else, you know, Citadelf,
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defense crew, whatever.
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It's
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you're trying to reframe it, I guess, but it's
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is it really wrong or false in that context if we were to really go to that like because I think a lot of people in this room think about that scenario.
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So
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like, the idea of Citadel theory is, and he specifically that triggered me a little bit too because, I mean, we are talk you know, this is if some people might be listening to this on the Citadel dispatch feed,
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but he called Citadel's
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military technology
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and violence
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as well. But the whole point of Citadel theory to me is this idea of peacefully opting out. You know, don't bother me. Let me have my localism. Let me have my, you know, local governance,
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that fits my needs best, and I won't bother you. It's a
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it's it's a
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you know, there there are definitely some revolutionary
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elements to Bitcoin, but it's a peaceful revolution while every single other alternative
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is a violent revolution. So
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So so there is a few things going on. Right?
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So I do agree with him that in a in a hyper Bitcoinized,
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Bitcoinized world or close to it,
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bitcoin is unavoidable.
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Right? So
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the being it's it's no longer voluntary,
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right, to to for a stage to to have Bitcoin.
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So in that sense, now it is forced.
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When you're talking about, like, military maneuvering
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and you're talking about, say,
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for example, having defending
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your your position, right, which is your peaceful Citadel.
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You you don't live in your peaceful Citadel in the absence of your environment. Right? You're still gonna need to trade or do something with with outside of your citadel because you're gonna need stuff.
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Right?
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So
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if the people around you don't agree with your choices, they may try to start you out, for example. Right? So then how you manage those relations,
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may incur some form of defense or whatever.
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So it it it's just it sucks that, like,
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the terminology
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that, you know, a military guy is gonna use
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is
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the term violence because they have a specific definition for that, which is not our sort of libertarian definition for that.
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So so I think it's more like talking past each other. Now if he's trying to inflame discussions about other things, I don't think so, but, you know, it's not impossible either.
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if
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if if his goal was a
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so so this is the way I look at it. Like, if his goal was a way less effective meme attempt
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that Udi
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succeeded with. Right? Where Udi kept saying, good morning. Bitcoin's digital real estate. Right? And then
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Michael Sailor goes on CNBC, and he's like, Bitcoin's digital real estate,
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and
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I expect us to pay property taxes. And and to be fair, he came back afterwards and was like, no.
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You know? I I didn't mean property taxes. In that respect, I meant capital gains taxes. I didn't mean real estate property taxes.
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But that's neither here nor there. If that was the goal,
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he want the idea is to get a bunch of big corners, a subset of big corners to come out and be like, yeah. No. We're cyber hornets. We're the decentralized
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autonomous
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cyber militia.
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And then as as soon as you start getting that kind of rhetoric happening,
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then it's the easiest sell in the world to say, well, we should have a military response to this cyber militia.
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Right? But
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they were peaceful protests.
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Nobody died. And within 2 or 3 days of narrative,
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it became the insurrection.
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Oh, for sure. And then they started hitting people as hard as possible. That you you you frame the narrative, and then as soon as you frame the narrative,
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you're able to
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get the general public,
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who are mostly not on our side to begin with,
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to completely go along with any kind of overbearing
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and and and community where the rhetoric and the aesthetics
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is fairly aggressive towards the state.
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So you could say that you're essentially tipping the hand on the narrative
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for the state to have an excuse to come knocking on your door.
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Right? I I don't think we're gonna be able to escape that.
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agenda?
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What's Space Jason's agenda might be, or is it just the the general sense that because of his The
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was to get,
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the DOD
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to essentially engage in bitcoin by mining and holding.
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Like he stated, if I maybe I'm wrong, but I I'm almost certain he stated that that Dell was his goal. He wrote, a paper internally.
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He made a point
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so that the the DOD
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engages with Bitcoin,
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as a defense,
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it's another defense weapon.
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is a kind of
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violent,
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action against the government?
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like, don't don't get frisky.
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No. I'm I'm cool. I'm cool. Okay. So so that's that's not the point. Be cool, man. Cool. Is when we have,
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people
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adopting
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aesthetics,
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right, so, like, come and take it,
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or,
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you know, like, you you hear people saying, right, like, you know, mixing is a weapon against the state or shit like that. Right? It's not different than this kind of narrative that creates around this stuff. Right? So for example,
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one that I find kind of awesome in a way, like, lightning should have been called
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blackening
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or something. Right? It's almost like onion for for Bitcoin transactions.
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And, you know, calling it like me, making it, like, fun and cute and all this shit, right, like, removes a lot of
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that, that that narrative intensity
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from the people that will try to cling to that.
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So so so in that sense,
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you know, like, a lot of the
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the the the intensity and aggressiveness,
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from the the
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the the privacy
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aesthetics in Bitcoin,
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is very unhelpful.
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the cedar, the aesthetics that having a defense,
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which,
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might imply a kind of violence when you're defending.
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It's not even like there. It's like, as I said, only aesthetics.
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We don't need defense because
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Bitcoin is like the first thing that they cannot lean on you. And if they cannot lean on you,
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they cannot do do anything about it. So it's a 100% peaceful.
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It's the other way around. And his argument and his argument
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and his overuse of,
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like, that word shot that he used to basically say the the most basic stuff we're saying for years now.
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Like, it's completely a joke.
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And
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I really didn't even like make I didn't like have the time to make a meme for the guy, and he blocked me for no reason.
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Like, out of the blue.
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I was only critiquing his, like,
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one thread he did,
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saying Bitcoin is like a war.
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I don't know, man. Like,
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was there like
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a meeting to place and, like, with somebody decided,
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let's promote this guy and let's, like,
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let's have him take out the community and, like, he gets back to us. Like, because that that's how it feels to him. I think what happened is he has been posting on LinkedIn,
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uninformed.
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It doesn't even matter. He's been posting on LinkedIn for years, apparently, trying to get the peep the world that he live that he lives and works in into Bitcoin.
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And then somebody from our community found some of those posts and promoted them on Twitter. He got a lot of engagement, and then he switched over to Twitter and started diving in and
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trying to,
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communicate the way and that he's used to doing in his
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you know, like so for example, we have this guy now called MetaTrinity
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tweeting at me with links to this chat. Right?
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Saying, you know, I'm all spin
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and blah blah blah. So this is this is why it's so hard when to engage,
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in in in, like, in conversation about this stuff. No, Trinity.
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This is not spin. We're just being intellectually honest.
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girl. Yeah. Okay. Do this.
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pro self defense,
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you know, and they were like, yeah. Military firing
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rounds in a big air. Like, you know, this is and it just it and then it blew up because of their engagement, which is not representative of
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stable coins and a whole bunch of other things that they wouldn't agree with, but they're just like, yeah. Military, strength, power. You know, this is what Bitcoin's all about. It's muted. Is it just for me?
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I think one of the interesting things he said that got a lot of engagement,
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was when he said the other day, he was like, Bitcoin is not consensual and not voluntary.
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And, like, I kind of, in a way, agree, but I disagree at the same time.
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You know, like, you have the option to adopt Bitcoin, but ultimately, your hand will be forced.
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You know, what what are your guys' thoughts on that?
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Right? Or everyone gets the price they deserve. I think as you just said as you said, it's a it's a reframing
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of a popular idiom.
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I haven't been super dialed in on the dialogue, to be honest, but my sense is it's like when you're a hammer, everything's a nail. And whether or not his intentions are
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neutral, good, or bad, he's just applying his lens, as ultimately we all do, to
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Bitcoin. And there's many different ways to view it, and we all have a slightly different way of articulating some of those ideas, but I don't disagree with the overall concept.
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I I found the framing,
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the kind of, like, war game framing of
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it to be problematic
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for the reasons I think, and I came into this conversation a little bit late, everyone else was talking about, which is that
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it creates a narrative that I think is probably bad for Bitcoin at this point in time,
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but I'm not actually sure.
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Okay, Trinity.
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Yes. Say your piece.
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Thank you for allowing me to speak.
397
00:27:49.720 --> 00:27:50.460
You know,
398
00:27:51.455 --> 00:27:54.115
I've just joined this community this year,
399
00:27:54.495 --> 00:27:57.315
and I've read a lot. I've listened to a lot of podcasts.
400
00:27:57.695 --> 00:28:02.279
I've heard a lot of different narratives, and Bitcoin can be so many things to so many people.
401
00:28:02.659 --> 00:28:03.159
However,
402
00:28:03.860 --> 00:28:09.000
you know, I woke up this morning and I looked on Twitter and saw that that I was now being,
403
00:28:09.635 --> 00:28:13.815
or Bitcoin was now being considered or or the people that run nodes,
404
00:28:14.595 --> 00:28:15.895
a cyber militia.
405
00:28:16.330 --> 00:28:18.830
Like, this this framing is detrimental
406
00:28:19.690 --> 00:28:22.910
to to the the network of individuals
407
00:28:23.855 --> 00:28:25.715
who are are not violent.
408
00:28:26.175 --> 00:28:29.395
And it's it can be said in a different way,
409
00:28:29.935 --> 00:28:33.909
and he has said it a different way and just say it in that way. Otherwise,
410
00:28:34.690 --> 00:28:41.914
you he'll continue to be mean to continue to because we have to to control the narrative, and we cannot be,
411
00:28:42.375 --> 00:28:43.034
you know,
412
00:28:44.135 --> 00:28:45.434
compared to a militia,
413
00:28:45.895 --> 00:28:52.139
a violent militia, or or anything of that sort. It it causes danger. It's it's a dangerous
414
00:28:52.519 --> 00:28:53.820
framing to have,
415
00:28:54.200 --> 00:28:57.419
and we didn't ask for it, and it's certainly not the same
416
00:28:57.975 --> 00:29:03.355
as other memes that you've mentioned. He hasn't done one meme. So it's just really out of context.
417
00:29:03.735 --> 00:29:06.075
And if you're talking to military people,
418
00:29:07.000 --> 00:29:09.900
framing something as a threat or as nonconsensual
419
00:29:10.440 --> 00:29:13.660
and all those things, I don't even see how that gets the DOD
420
00:29:14.345 --> 00:29:23.085
involved or or interested in it it's just kind of weird and strange, and I don't get it. And I don't wanna be associated with anything like that.
421
00:29:23.820 --> 00:29:29.040
422
00:29:29.420 --> 00:29:42.080
you know, first couple innings here of of, you know That's right. When the when this whole Ponzi economy explodes, you know, like, this this fiat lie that we've been living in, that's that's, you know, on the last on the last legs,
423
00:29:43.100 --> 00:29:47.679
you know, like, QE zero interest rate policy, this fake aid,
424
00:29:48.035 --> 00:29:56.535
when it all actually explodes or implodes or, you know, however you wanna think about it, the narrative is these greedy is going to be these greedy Bitcoin
425
00:29:57.220 --> 00:29:57.720
hoarders
426
00:29:58.180 --> 00:29:59.080
caused this.
427
00:29:59.700 --> 00:30:04.120
428
00:30:04.445 --> 00:30:13.265
429
00:30:13.649 --> 00:30:15.350
430
00:30:15.970 --> 00:30:16.870
431
00:30:17.409 --> 00:30:19.110
432
00:30:19.649 --> 00:30:28.295
you know, that's what it is. And and, you know, as much as, like, you know, I'm pro beast person. Right? I hate war. But reality is,
433
00:30:28.970 --> 00:30:34.830
you know, Bitcoin is a weapon of mass ending the state. Right? It it is the literal
434
00:30:35.370 --> 00:30:42.365
Kryptonite for the state. Yeah. I mean Because states, modern states only survive by controlling the monetary system.
435
00:30:42.665 --> 00:30:48.000
436
00:30:48.380 --> 00:30:48.880
Trinity,
437
00:30:49.580 --> 00:31:14.220
you you said we. You use this this this idea of, like, we can't allow this narrative to be pushed. And I think it's really important to acknowledge Bitcoin is different things for different people, and there is no there is no, like, CEO of Bitcoin. There is no core group. There's all of us and those of us who have There's not? Maybe some of us Well well well, that's great. He can stop complaining about the memes then. He he's acting like he should be treated a certain way, and it's a bunch of different individuals.
438
00:31:14.605 --> 00:31:23.185
439
00:31:24.000 --> 00:31:24.160
440
00:31:24.960 --> 00:31:26.020
we we can't
441
00:31:26.960 --> 00:31:28.180
control the narratives
442
00:31:28.560 --> 00:31:29.060
that
443
00:31:30.560 --> 00:31:39.515
that we can't control narratives that our enemies make, but we can choose which narratives we prescribe to and which narratives we discuss and how we frame Bitcoin.
444
00:31:39.850 --> 00:31:44.510
And it's been a very it's been a very one second. It's been a very common tactic,
445
00:31:45.690 --> 00:31:52.585
specifically in the United States. We've seen it in the United States where you have so called domestic terrorist
446
00:31:52.885 --> 00:31:53.385
wings
447
00:31:53.685 --> 00:32:07.370
that get shut down and you find out afterwards that the FBI informant was the guy in there who radicalized them and changed the narrative that they prescribed to. So it's absolutely important that as a community, we push back against harmful narratives,
448
00:32:08.715 --> 00:32:11.534
regardless if we can technically control them or not.
449
00:32:12.794 --> 00:32:15.054
450
00:32:16.270 --> 00:32:18.850
pushing against narratives. So I'm the first real estate.
451
00:32:20.190 --> 00:32:22.850
Literally, the day it said, Bitcoin is fuck you. But
452
00:32:23.495 --> 00:32:26.315
what what I'm trying to say is, like, if he's selling
453
00:32:26.615 --> 00:32:28.315
the the narrative, right,
454
00:32:29.015 --> 00:32:33.230
the audience to the narrative is not Bitcoin Twitter. Right?
455
00:32:34.090 --> 00:32:36.350
If I was a bad evil
456
00:32:36.730 --> 00:32:37.230
asshole
457
00:32:37.610 --> 00:32:42.965
trying to create a narrative about Bitcoiners, the Bitcoiners are terrorists or whatever, I would be
458
00:32:43.424 --> 00:32:48.005
the the narrative is the the audience is the the normies. Right?
459
00:32:48.625 --> 00:32:52.280
And it's Bitcoiners are not engaging in that space.
460
00:32:52.660 --> 00:32:58.920
Right? It's not like we're on CNN every day saying Bitcoin is peace or some shit like that. Right? So,
461
00:32:59.925 --> 00:33:04.985
if the if the goal here is to to change the narrative with
462
00:33:05.285 --> 00:33:05.945
a fact,
463
00:33:06.300 --> 00:33:10.240
Right? Not just on our echo chamber. Right? With a fact,
464
00:33:10.780 --> 00:33:13.040
then the engagement is outwards.
465
00:33:13.340 --> 00:33:18.034
Right? Just sort of trolling this guy to DAF. You'll probably quit Twitter,
466
00:33:18.735 --> 00:33:24.559
but it's not gonna make it stop. If anything, it's gonna make it go in some places where we have no visibility
467
00:33:25.179 --> 00:33:33.875
468
00:33:34.255 --> 00:33:35.155
And then also,
469
00:33:35.775 --> 00:33:39.760
if you worked for the state and Bitcoin is a weapon against the
470
00:33:40.320 --> 00:33:58.580
state, it wouldn't make sense that you will find that favorable. The state pays your bills, is putting your children through college, and you're telling me that that is a favorable framing of a technology, that I'm supposed to adopt the very technology that will obsolete me? I I don't see how his framing is even useful
471
00:33:59.120 --> 00:34:00.419
to regular people.
472
00:34:01.039 --> 00:34:02.820
473
00:34:03.200 --> 00:34:04.659
The framing that
474
00:34:05.035 --> 00:34:13.375
that Bitcoin is used by criminals and is is only used by criminals is a framing that has existed from almost the beginning of Bitcoin,
475
00:34:14.119 --> 00:34:23.535
and it's been pushed back heavily to the point where we're starting to finally get past it in normie circles. But as far as, like, military circles, spook circles,
476
00:34:23.915 --> 00:34:27.695
I've heard it from friends and family that operate in those circles.
477
00:34:27.995 --> 00:34:36.240
They still very much believe that Bitcoin is a criminal activity. Bitcoin usage is is something that terrorists use, that money launderers use.
478
00:34:37.579 --> 00:34:38.480
So so
479
00:34:38.905 --> 00:34:42.925
regardless, those conversations are happening in the circles that we're not a part of.
480
00:34:43.385 --> 00:34:45.405
But we can con we we can
481
00:34:46.920 --> 00:34:52.940
push back in the circles that we are a part of and push back on the platforms and the audiences that we have
482
00:34:53.319 --> 00:34:54.619
to discuss Bitcoin
483
00:34:55.075 --> 00:34:58.375
as I believe Bitcoin really is, which is a tool for freedom
484
00:34:58.835 --> 00:35:04.820
and the ability for people to opt out of poorly managed economies and high surveillance states
485
00:35:05.540 --> 00:35:08.120
that that are are basically tracking everything we're doing.
486
00:35:08.580 --> 00:35:13.720
487
00:35:14.125 --> 00:35:19.265
It's not black and white. Right? There is people in government that want to make government smaller.
488
00:35:20.365 --> 00:35:21.105
The military,
489
00:35:21.885 --> 00:35:22.705
it's not
490
00:35:23.130 --> 00:35:25.550
a lot of times, it's not the military complex.
491
00:35:26.170 --> 00:35:27.630
There's different people there.
492
00:35:29.050 --> 00:35:29.550
And
493
00:35:31.075 --> 00:35:31.575
when
494
00:35:32.515 --> 00:35:36.375
when we just shut down conversation, we're not being useful.
495
00:35:36.755 --> 00:35:41.089
We're not engaging. We're not sort of clearing out for the people who are watching
496
00:35:41.789 --> 00:35:42.450
the conversation.
497
00:35:42.990 --> 00:35:48.289
So if anything, it's actually kinda good that people see this guy being sort of, like, questioned
498
00:35:48.845 --> 00:35:49.665
and have to engage
499
00:35:50.205 --> 00:35:52.865
and being wrong and stuff. So that really actually helps.
500
00:35:54.445 --> 00:35:54.945
And,
501
00:35:55.565 --> 00:35:56.705
you know, you can't
502
00:35:57.100 --> 00:35:58.240
deny that, like,
503
00:35:58.700 --> 00:35:59.600
you know, Bitcoin
504
00:36:00.380 --> 00:36:00.780
if you
505
00:36:01.500 --> 00:36:15.339
if your job depends on something, right, you're not gonna learn the thing that makes your job go away. So you could, you know, they could actually qualify Bitcoin as the thing that ends their thing. So it's violent towards damn and their means. Right?
506
00:36:16.520 --> 00:36:23.339
It it it's just that, like, I I don't like black and white conversations. Like, it's like it it makes us all look dumb.
507
00:36:23.665 --> 00:36:26.244
508
00:36:29.505 --> 00:36:33.470
509
00:36:33.770 --> 00:36:41.435
510
00:36:42.375 --> 00:36:42.875
Bitcoin
511
00:36:43.255 --> 00:36:45.115
is for money launderers. Bitcoin
512
00:36:45.415 --> 00:36:46.795
is torching the environment.
513
00:36:47.095 --> 00:36:51.330
It's just gonna be always another narrative, and we've seen that when the buyer bill,
514
00:36:51.790 --> 00:36:58.690
the, I mean, the amount of framing of Bitcoin as, you know, Satoshi's private money, as a wildcat banking system,
515
00:36:59.424 --> 00:37:00.805
as in the many enhanced,
516
00:37:01.744 --> 00:37:09.630
currencies that need to be curtailed. It's always going to be some narrative thrown at describing the industry in a way that favors the powerful,
517
00:37:10.010 --> 00:37:10.670
the incumbents.
518
00:37:11.290 --> 00:37:15.070
And so, you know, there's kind of a there's an opportunity for
519
00:37:15.575 --> 00:37:19.275
if anyone wants to kind of come up with a frame that's much more positive.
520
00:37:19.655 --> 00:37:23.915
I mean, we've seen, you know, Dorsey try this, Bitcoin is world peace. We've seen,
521
00:37:24.520 --> 00:37:47.599
to have fun staying poor meme circulate widely. People don't quite understand that. There's, you know, there's an opportunity to frame it in the way that a Bitcoiner wants to frame it rather than going on the defensive always. I think I'm not sure what that frame is, but I think there's an opportunity out there for Bitcoin to come up with the way that it actually should be understood. You know, digital gold works for a while, but it's not quite there. Real estate obviously was a catastrophe.
522
00:37:48.059 --> 00:37:51.680
There's something out there that someone needs to come up with if they'd like to.
523
00:37:54.775 --> 00:37:57.035
524
00:37:58.135 --> 00:38:00.070
Aaron, I think you've wrapped up that,
525
00:38:00.550 --> 00:38:01.350
subject pretty well.
526
00:38:03.110 --> 00:38:06.470
I think, you know, we spent the last half an hour talking about,
527
00:38:06.790 --> 00:38:07.610
space JSON.
528
00:38:08.945 --> 00:38:11.685
It's probably best to move on to another topic.
529
00:38:12.225 --> 00:38:13.525
We recently had,
530
00:38:15.240 --> 00:38:18.060
BTC pay server release this new,
531
00:38:19.000 --> 00:38:19.500
crowdfunding
532
00:38:19.800 --> 00:38:20.300
campaign
533
00:38:21.320 --> 00:38:22.460
to provide
534
00:38:22.760 --> 00:38:24.380
dental care to poor
535
00:38:24.715 --> 00:38:25.215
Salvadorians,
536
00:38:26.315 --> 00:38:35.310
bitcoin smiles dot org. I don't know if there's much to discuss there, but, if you're listening to this and you have some extra stats, you should consider donating.
537
00:38:39.210 --> 00:38:40.990
538
00:38:41.450 --> 00:38:42.110
539
00:38:43.125 --> 00:38:44.585
540
00:38:44.885 --> 00:38:47.465
MBK put out a tweet, or I think he just left,
541
00:38:48.485 --> 00:38:53.359
talking about foreseeing a major supply chain issue coming down the pike again.
542
00:38:54.380 --> 00:38:56.160
I was wondering if we could discuss
543
00:38:56.965 --> 00:38:59.785
what are some potential ways to prepare for something like that,
544
00:39:00.245 --> 00:39:04.500
and and sort of defend yourself from, you know, any issues that might come up in your own life.
545
00:39:05.700 --> 00:39:06.920
546
00:39:08.420 --> 00:39:14.040
547
00:39:14.695 --> 00:39:21.995
90% of what you said, but I probably agree with it. We changed that. No no worries. Enrique, we've moved on to supply chain issues.
548
00:39:22.490 --> 00:39:24.670
549
00:39:25.050 --> 00:39:27.870
on the speaker stage. I think it's the first words he said,
550
00:39:28.890 --> 00:39:35.645
but I love Nick. He's a good friend, and he wants to talk about supply chain issues and how we can prepare for potential issues there.
551
00:39:36.265 --> 00:39:36.765
552
00:39:37.279 --> 00:39:43.700
I was talking about supply chain issues actually on the Bitcoin summer thing with the bull Bitcoin guys
553
00:39:44.000 --> 00:39:45.140
for a moment there.
554
00:39:45.440 --> 00:39:45.940
And
555
00:39:47.224 --> 00:39:49.005
so so through my vines,
556
00:39:49.385 --> 00:39:51.244
right, of of, like,
557
00:39:52.424 --> 00:39:52.924
just
558
00:39:53.520 --> 00:39:59.860
sourcing parts for things we wanna make in the future because just how we develop products is bottom up as opposed to,
559
00:40:00.320 --> 00:40:01.060
top down,
560
00:40:01.935 --> 00:40:08.115
which is very similar to so okay. I guess let me give you a little primer here so people understand. So
561
00:40:08.970 --> 00:40:12.670
when you when you work in a in a r and d heavy company,
562
00:40:13.130 --> 00:40:13.630
right,
563
00:40:15.290 --> 00:40:15.790
chemistry
564
00:40:16.250 --> 00:40:19.535
engineering company or a big computer manufacturer
565
00:40:19.915 --> 00:40:20.415
company.
566
00:40:21.115 --> 00:40:22.895
You pick your parts first,
567
00:40:23.755 --> 00:40:27.130
and then you build a product from there up. Right?
568
00:40:27.450 --> 00:40:30.029
When you when you were in a more sort of, like,
569
00:40:30.809 --> 00:40:33.789
like, amateur, not not in an offensive way,
570
00:40:36.420 --> 00:40:36.755
shop,
571
00:40:37.634 --> 00:40:38.295
you normally
572
00:40:38.755 --> 00:40:40.375
start with a dev board
573
00:40:40.755 --> 00:40:43.335
or you start with, like, something that already exists,
574
00:40:43.795 --> 00:40:45.335
and then you build the product
575
00:40:47.270 --> 00:40:52.170
after you had that. You either redo it or you sort of build from that. Right?
576
00:40:53.674 --> 00:41:01.295
But when you're dealing with with, like, lower level parts and sort of trying to source them, like, years in advance before building the product,
577
00:41:02.599 --> 00:41:05.819
you sort of get more in touch with the with the distributors
578
00:41:06.200 --> 00:41:08.059
that that deal with, like, carmakers
579
00:41:08.440 --> 00:41:10.059
or things like that. Right?
580
00:41:10.635 --> 00:41:17.455
And and you get a little bit of a better scoop on what's going on. Right? And it's an absolute cluster fuck.
581
00:41:19.740 --> 00:41:22.160
We I mean, we're we're talking about, like, you know,
582
00:41:22.619 --> 00:41:24.800
manufacturers that that have pool
583
00:41:25.325 --> 00:41:26.224
with the suppliers
584
00:41:26.605 --> 00:41:28.385
are are forcing their hands
585
00:41:28.765 --> 00:41:30.385
586
00:41:31.565 --> 00:41:34.865
587
00:41:35.870 --> 00:41:39.890
say say you make a car engine. Right? There is another
588
00:41:40.830 --> 00:41:45.125
1,000 manufacturers involving in making that car engine. Right?
589
00:41:46.145 --> 00:41:48.724
And then there is other 1,000 manufacturers
590
00:41:49.105 --> 00:41:55.119
involved in making parts of the part of the car engine. Right? Supply chains,
591
00:41:56.460 --> 00:42:00.960
when they work and the way they're optimized nowadays is quite amazing. Right?
592
00:42:01.825 --> 00:42:02.325
But,
593
00:42:03.985 --> 00:42:05.765
when when they stop working,
594
00:42:06.145 --> 00:42:07.845
things get very complicated
595
00:42:08.145 --> 00:42:09.525
because the risk
596
00:42:11.360 --> 00:42:15.060
due to sort of like a domino effect is very high. So for example,
597
00:42:15.760 --> 00:42:16.740
few years ago,
598
00:42:18.240 --> 00:42:19.060
hard drives
599
00:42:19.865 --> 00:42:20.365
went
600
00:42:20.665 --> 00:42:23.725
on on a huge supply chain shock. Right?
601
00:42:24.105 --> 00:42:32.370
So data centers couldn't buy the thousands and thousands of hard drives they buy because hard drives were either unavailable for purchase or were too expensive.
602
00:42:32.830 --> 00:42:33.890
And all because
603
00:42:34.350 --> 00:42:35.970
a spring factory,
604
00:42:36.385 --> 00:42:39.605
okay, that makes the hard drive very precise springs
605
00:42:40.225 --> 00:42:43.280
was, I think, flooded in the Philippines or something like that.
606
00:42:43.680 --> 00:42:53.685
So just just so you see, right, that, like, you have a spring factory that then ships the part to whoever to then make the thing, that then makes the bigger thing.
607
00:42:55.585 --> 00:42:57.125
It's very, very fragile.
608
00:42:57.665 --> 00:42:58.165
So,
609
00:42:58.705 --> 00:43:01.045
what we have now is we have,
610
00:43:01.609 --> 00:43:02.349
the COVID,
611
00:43:03.770 --> 00:43:04.430
sort of,
612
00:43:05.210 --> 00:43:05.710
over,
613
00:43:06.490 --> 00:43:06.990
oversupply
614
00:43:07.369 --> 00:43:08.270
sorry, over,
615
00:43:09.065 --> 00:43:12.925
over demand. Right? So people are bored at home buying a bunch of shit.
616
00:43:13.545 --> 00:43:16.045
And then you have people who wouldn't normally have money
617
00:43:16.380 --> 00:43:18.480
getting a check to buy more shit,
618
00:43:19.180 --> 00:43:20.400
and then you have
619
00:43:20.779 --> 00:43:22.000
supply chain disruptions
620
00:43:22.940 --> 00:43:23.099
from,
621
00:43:24.694 --> 00:43:26.635
from COVID issues around,
622
00:43:27.335 --> 00:43:29.595
shipping and warehousing or all the
623
00:43:33.280 --> 00:43:36.180
have the fact that, like, all Hong all Chinese
624
00:43:36.560 --> 00:43:39.060
factories banking Hong Kong now
625
00:43:39.440 --> 00:43:40.580
getting screwed.
626
00:43:41.585 --> 00:43:44.325
So they're gonna have to rework how they do their economics.
627
00:43:45.184 --> 00:43:49.684
And then we now have the threat of China maybe taking over Taiwan where TSMC
628
00:43:50.410 --> 00:43:54.270
is, where essentially everything that you use in your life
629
00:43:54.970 --> 00:43:56.349
has a chip from there,
630
00:43:56.650 --> 00:43:58.750
at least 1, if not all of them.
631
00:43:59.765 --> 00:44:02.984
So so we are at some serious risk. And Taiwan is fucked.
632
00:44:04.964 --> 00:44:11.120
Yeah. It's just we don't know if the boots are gonna go on the ground, if they're gonna go over TSMC.
633
00:44:11.660 --> 00:44:16.565
We don't know what's gonna happen. And contrary to what, like, politicians or people huffing,
634
00:44:16.865 --> 00:44:17.925
whatever they are,
635
00:44:18.865 --> 00:44:20.645
say, you can't just turn
636
00:44:21.210 --> 00:44:28.430
the key and have a fab of that capacity anywhere else in the world. It's not like that. Right? This is the indicate.
637
00:44:28.734 --> 00:44:37.395
638
00:44:38.490 --> 00:44:39.869
639
00:44:40.650 --> 00:44:42.910
that as as as I see. Right?
640
00:44:43.210 --> 00:44:45.790
Like, who knows? Maybe he's like that, Yongle.
641
00:44:46.535 --> 00:44:52.234
Maybe z is like Yongle, and he's gonna burn his fleet because he doesn't want anybody to go out of China. Right?
642
00:44:52.775 --> 00:44:58.740
No. They're gonna do, like, they're gonna do the Hong Kong strategy. They're gonna take it all over with no shots fired.
643
00:44:59.839 --> 00:45:07.204
Yeah. I Oh, no. I I know. Okay. But that that affects the people. Right? I'm not sure if it affects the support team. The lack of the elastic because February.
644
00:45:08.145 --> 00:45:11.605
We yeah. We don't know if they're gonna, like,
645
00:45:12.119 --> 00:45:13.180
hinder TSMC
646
00:45:13.560 --> 00:45:16.540
because remember, right, like, China is an export nation.
647
00:45:17.000 --> 00:45:21.420
Right? So if they they fuck supply chains, they they will get screwed too.
648
00:45:21.785 --> 00:45:22.845
So it is tricky.
649
00:45:24.665 --> 00:45:26.765
650
00:45:27.705 --> 00:45:31.325
Well, yeah, the the people are screwed, but also it does create, as you were just acknowledging,
651
00:45:31.770 --> 00:45:36.910
a huge issue for the rest of the world. As you said, you can't just, like, spin up a,
652
00:45:37.530 --> 00:45:38.910
a 5 and 7 nanometer,
653
00:45:39.450 --> 00:45:40.910
chip fab in
654
00:45:41.385 --> 00:45:49.165
6 months or a year. My understanding is it takes, like, 2 to 3 years to actually build a to get a chip fab in place and up to full production.
655
00:45:49.490 --> 00:45:52.710
656
00:45:53.170 --> 00:45:56.549
657
00:45:57.105 --> 00:46:02.964
658
00:46:03.424 --> 00:46:03.800
are
659
00:46:04.360 --> 00:46:06.620
the the pinnacle of human engineering.
660
00:46:07.080 --> 00:46:12.780
Yeah. Okay? Like, there is nothing that gets close to that by by, like, a factor of a1000.
661
00:46:13.080 --> 00:46:16.924
Okay? Putting people on space is a joke comparing to making chips.
662
00:46:17.865 --> 00:46:25.630
And It's also the most capital intensive production process Yeah. In terms of research and development. You you burn cash. And and then there is, like, the level
663
00:46:25.930 --> 00:46:26.830
of, like,
664
00:46:27.210 --> 00:46:36.285
all the chemicals you need around that stuff, all the like, everything around it. Like, North America doesn't have the engineers for that, doesn't have the infrastructure for that.
665
00:46:36.665 --> 00:46:42.720
Right? So you can't just turn this shit on. So when they made that announcement, I can't remember which fab, maybe a Samsung or somebody
666
00:46:43.180 --> 00:46:53.585
wanted to open a fab in North America. I mean, they can do it, but there's not gonna be any reasonable capacity even close to what we're talking about here, and and it's still gonna take at least a decade.
667
00:46:53.885 --> 00:47:06.760
668
00:47:07.080 --> 00:47:09.260
uranium. We saw this with shipping freights,
669
00:47:09.605 --> 00:47:19.550
you know, containers going 10 x in price within a few months of the virus. I mean, these supply shortages happen all the time, and, obviously, right now, it's happening with chips. Problem is, obviously, underinvestment
670
00:47:19.930 --> 00:47:28.635
on you know, there's no way to spin up these facilities within anything less than 5 years no matter how much money you throw at it. So, yeah, I see what envy is.
671
00:47:29.015 --> 00:47:37.390
672
00:47:37.690 --> 00:47:48.325
just and the chemicals you need to work in the plant themselves, they need to be made somewhere. Are you gonna ship them from China? Because it's the only place that makes most of the crap that goes into the facility to begin with.
673
00:47:48.625 --> 00:48:18.845
674
00:48:19.405 --> 00:48:23.905
675
00:48:24.205 --> 00:48:27.505
50 years worth of people through engineering school.
676
00:48:28.200 --> 00:48:34.780
Right? They you lift your hand there as a factory saying, I wanna hire engineers. Right? Like, I mean,
677
00:48:35.935 --> 00:48:44.595
you have, like, a million of the best people in the world show up in line up in front of your factory, and a million people is nothing there. Right?
678
00:48:45.340 --> 00:48:45.840
So
679
00:48:46.700 --> 00:48:54.345
it's it's like it's like we we don't even have the human capital in North America to to get close to that. What's Let alone What's the Okay. So given
680
00:48:57.685 --> 00:48:58.825
681
00:48:59.445 --> 00:49:04.480
Yeah. Oh, okay. Point. Yeah. It's fucking dollars. Okay. Wait. So here's my question now. So we've established that,
682
00:49:05.260 --> 00:49:05.760
the
683
00:49:06.299 --> 00:49:06.960
chip fabrication
684
00:49:07.260 --> 00:49:11.520
is, a real problem and that China is definitely going to fuck with Taiwan.
685
00:49:11.885 --> 00:49:14.065
So what is the what do we think that the US's
686
00:49:14.605 --> 00:49:18.865
response to that is gonna be? Or how is that actually gonna play out on the world stage?
687
00:49:19.900 --> 00:49:22.560
Blowjobs. In February. I think you're right, Aaron.
688
00:49:23.980 --> 00:49:26.560
Yeah. There'll be a lots of those, but then after the blowjobs,
689
00:49:27.100 --> 00:49:27.920
how does
690
00:49:28.435 --> 00:49:39.230
691
00:49:39.609 --> 00:49:40.109
Pharmaceuticals,
692
00:49:41.369 --> 00:49:45.390
raw materials. There are so many things that only China, supplies, on
693
00:49:45.690 --> 00:49:53.535
and on and on. So chips is just one of the other things they they own by way of owning TSMC in Taiwan, which they'll overtake after the Olympics sometime.
694
00:49:54.170 --> 00:49:59.150
So it's just gonna be these are many supply issues re relating with China. China,
695
00:49:59.610 --> 00:50:07.505
also is dependent on US dollar trade. I mean, almost everything they trade is US dollar denominated. So this is an inextricable relationship that we have with China.
696
00:50:07.885 --> 00:50:14.730
But as tensions mount, especially if they, you know, accelerate what they've done in Hong Kong and with Taiwan or anything
697
00:50:15.190 --> 00:50:26.655
else, we patrol the seas, which is required for them to do international trade anywhere. If we stop patrolling their ships, they wouldn't be able to do trade with anyone and their economy would collapse. Likewise, they hold a bunch of US dollar nominated debt.
698
00:50:27.150 --> 00:50:38.255
So they need the US dollar to you know, so there's a huge relationship of interconnectivity between United States and China. Chip is one thing. I think, MBK is getting at, you know, what China is doing regarding,
699
00:50:38.955 --> 00:50:40.895
mining and production of these machines.
700
00:50:41.435 --> 00:50:53.644
They they had this kind of vast solution with Bitcoin. It's banned. It's not banned. We own a bunch of it. We don't own a bunch of it. Now they took this crackdown in preparation for their CBDC launch in February, which is their main focus
701
00:50:53.944 --> 00:50:59.805
because they've kind of extracted all the money that they wanted to extract from Bitcoin, and now they wanna go on to, Remindi
702
00:51:00.380 --> 00:51:08.640
promotion with the CBD thing. So they're gonna promote that, but then they ban Bitcoin in advance of that to make sure that everyone who's left is a cooperating miner
703
00:51:09.025 --> 00:51:12.645
exporting their machines abroad, 15% of which went to the North America,
704
00:51:13.105 --> 00:51:17.365
most of which was just shuffled around within China, but a a little bit went to Kazakhstan,
705
00:51:18.059 --> 00:51:18.559
Kazakhstan,
706
00:51:19.099 --> 00:51:20.799
the various other, you know, Stans.
707
00:51:21.180 --> 00:51:31.755
And so they're just kind of positioning now for this new phase of Xi's 5 year plan, which is coming up when he's gonna assume he's gonna break his next election is when he's gonna break,
708
00:51:32.535 --> 00:51:42.070
the term that he's allowed to extend, and he's gonna essentially be emperor for life. And then he's gonna launch on his next 5 year plan, which is gonna be Digital Belt and Road, CBDC,
709
00:51:43.330 --> 00:51:49.515
Taiwan, Hong Kong, and whatever else he's gonna throw on to the 5 year plan. And Aaron, what what's kinda funny
710
00:51:49.895 --> 00:52:04.214
711
00:52:04.515 --> 00:52:05.015
mishandled
712
00:52:05.395 --> 00:52:05.895
that.
713
00:52:06.515 --> 00:52:15.160
714
00:52:15.640 --> 00:52:23.165
ability to get this, you know, renminbi thing happening even in tiny countries, you know, like Uganda and and Nigeria and,
715
00:52:24.585 --> 00:52:26.205
Ecuador and Nicaragua,
716
00:52:26.585 --> 00:52:28.365
various small countries, Venezuela.
717
00:52:28.970 --> 00:52:33.390
It's been working. I mean, they have quite a bit of trade now going on in this little tiny,
718
00:52:33.930 --> 00:52:40.775
belt that they've established around the world. And once they can do this, hey. We have a digital renminbi, and it's easy to clear it, and you have final settlement.
719
00:52:41.235 --> 00:52:42.455
You know, it'll be
720
00:52:42.915 --> 00:52:54.990
something to to really watch, and they don't really care about Bitcoin anymore because they realize they don't control it. They thought originally they could, but they're realizing that they don't. So now, you know, it's it's pivot number 27 for Xi on Bitcoin.
721
00:52:55.595 --> 00:52:57.935
722
00:52:58.315 --> 00:52:59.295
723
00:53:00.075 --> 00:53:12.454
724
00:53:12.755 --> 00:53:21.990
around the world. Like, that's our leading export. We have a current account deficit, and we run deficits. And then and, like, in a in a free market, if you're if you're running
725
00:53:22.290 --> 00:53:22.790
deficits,
726
00:53:23.330 --> 00:53:28.070
then you wouldn't you wouldn't have a current account deficit, meaning, like, you you export
727
00:53:28.450 --> 00:53:29.510
more than you import.
728
00:53:30.125 --> 00:53:39.839
We we import goods from around the world and basically exchange our paper. And so geopolitically for the US, Luke Groman and, like, Lynn Alden and a bunch of these people are, like, are all over
729
00:53:40.220 --> 00:53:45.440
this. You really like, the only play here, and I think this is kind of what they're starting to do and understand
730
00:53:45.819 --> 00:53:47.359
is, like, they have to devalue.
731
00:53:47.755 --> 00:54:04.855
They have to they basically, like it's it's strategic to weaken to weaken the dollar. Because if if not, a strong dollar is great for the rest of the world. It's terrible for the US, all of our domestic manufacturing and all that. And so, like, I think that's that's what some leaders are starting to understand and, like, you know,
732
00:54:05.495 --> 00:54:10.795
it's it's great for capital markets and and all that for the for the world reserve currency, but for the average Joe, it's awful.
733
00:54:11.575 --> 00:54:13.735
You know, like, we can buy cheap stuff from China, but,
734
00:54:14.680 --> 00:54:19.980
it's it's not good for for anybody outside of, like, the coastal elites and and, like, you know, DC.
735
00:54:20.440 --> 00:54:30.924
And so I think that's people are starting to wake up to that, and it kinda ties into to China and geopolitical game theory and and all of that. But the world reserve currency is actually, like, pretty pretty awful for the US.
736
00:54:34.730 --> 00:54:36.590
737
00:54:37.370 --> 00:54:41.625
I I completely agree with that analysis, Dylan. I mean, that's one of the reasons why,
738
00:54:42.645 --> 00:54:43.705
we hold Bitcoin,
739
00:54:44.965 --> 00:54:46.025
and we're seeing,
740
00:54:46.565 --> 00:54:47.065
basically,
741
00:54:48.130 --> 00:54:53.190
the beginnings of this massive devaluation of the dollar more so than it's already happened.
742
00:54:54.610 --> 00:54:55.990
But we started this
743
00:54:56.735 --> 00:54:57.635
specific topic,
744
00:54:58.495 --> 00:55:06.490
with a discussion of future supply chain shortages, and we we we already saw tons of supply chain shortages over the last 2 years.
745
00:55:08.309 --> 00:55:18.055
And and Nick specifically wanted to know what he should do to prepare for it. I mean, there's there's one question saying what the US should do to prepare for it or what Koincite should do to prepare for it.
746
00:55:18.355 --> 00:55:27.359
But what should the average Bitcoiner So or the average person right now be thinking? Like, are we gonna have you know, we're already seeing shortages in furniture and washing machines.
747
00:55:28.220 --> 00:55:33.525
As far as I'm concerned, we're seeing shortages in land. It's hard to purchase large amounts of land right now.
748
00:55:34.305 --> 00:55:38.805
And I know that's completely different than the supply chain, but that's part of, like, a hyperinflationary
749
00:55:39.585 --> 00:55:40.325
type of that.
750
00:55:41.210 --> 00:55:48.590
Well, like, how do we prepare? Are there gonna be shortages of toilet paper again? Is that gonna be a thing again, or are we past that? So so
751
00:55:48.954 --> 00:55:51.775
752
00:55:52.155 --> 00:55:53.535
areas of North America,
753
00:55:54.795 --> 00:55:57.055
if you have the capital capacity
754
00:55:58.279 --> 00:55:59.259
to withstand,
755
00:56:00.440 --> 00:56:05.019
spikes in prices on on goods that you need, you're fine. Right?
756
00:56:05.880 --> 00:56:06.859
I don't think
757
00:56:07.895 --> 00:56:09.195
the kind of
758
00:56:09.575 --> 00:56:10.075
of
759
00:56:11.415 --> 00:56:15.515
of issues we'll see will hinder people who have capital capacity.
760
00:56:15.975 --> 00:56:23.900
Right? So say you really need the laptop is 30% more or double. Right? You still buy it. Right? It's still gonna be available.
761
00:56:24.440 --> 00:56:27.825
The problem is it's gonna feel like hyperinflation.
762
00:56:28.765 --> 00:56:30.225
It's gonna feel like
763
00:56:30.605 --> 00:56:32.305
things are going up in price.
764
00:56:33.040 --> 00:56:33.440
And,
765
00:56:33.840 --> 00:56:36.580
but that's mostly because of supply shock. Right?
766
00:56:36.960 --> 00:56:37.940
If that triggers
767
00:56:41.175 --> 00:56:41.995
some other
768
00:56:42.535 --> 00:56:45.835
known things about the price, I don't know. But,
769
00:56:46.295 --> 00:56:49.755
like, things, for example, like cars. Right? There is already
770
00:56:50.200 --> 00:56:54.859
supply shock on cars. There is supply shock on outboard motors for boats,
771
00:56:55.320 --> 00:56:56.859
things that have more complexity.
772
00:56:57.160 --> 00:56:58.780
Right? It has a lot of parts.
773
00:56:59.795 --> 00:57:01.974
Can you still buy a new car? Yes.
774
00:57:02.355 --> 00:57:04.535
Can you buy the car that you want?
775
00:57:05.075 --> 00:57:05.575
Unlikely.
776
00:57:07.349 --> 00:57:11.049
Unless you're willing to overpay or buy on the secondary market.
777
00:57:11.750 --> 00:57:14.329
So I think we're gonna enter a transitional
778
00:57:14.630 --> 00:57:15.130
phase.
779
00:57:16.625 --> 00:57:20.325
After this transitional phase, I don't know what happens, but I I know
780
00:57:20.865 --> 00:57:22.565
or I strongly believe
781
00:57:23.230 --> 00:57:28.849
that coming coming into the as as things restart after the summer in North America,
782
00:57:29.309 --> 00:57:30.770
we're gonna start seeing
783
00:57:31.164 --> 00:57:33.505
a lot of supply shock on things.
784
00:57:34.125 --> 00:57:36.305
And if you don't have the economical
785
00:57:36.605 --> 00:57:40.740
capacity to get something you need, you might be in trouble.
786
00:57:41.280 --> 00:57:42.180
So I wouldn't
787
00:57:42.640 --> 00:57:44.420
go out there and start, like,
788
00:57:45.520 --> 00:57:47.620
getting a warehouse and filling up with crap,
789
00:57:48.255 --> 00:57:51.155
especially toilet paper, because I don't think that that's a concern.
790
00:57:51.695 --> 00:57:54.675
I think you should be more concerned about amassing capital
791
00:57:55.010 --> 00:57:56.069
that is not evaluating.
792
00:57:56.609 --> 00:57:57.829
Right? So, like, Bitcoin,
793
00:57:58.930 --> 00:58:00.470
so that you can then
794
00:58:01.410 --> 00:58:04.069
pay for things that that you need,
795
00:58:04.975 --> 00:58:06.035
at a higher price.
796
00:58:08.015 --> 00:58:12.195
797
00:58:13.030 --> 00:58:31.460
the supply jack issues too far in advance. I mean, you can see that maybe 3, 6 months out. But beyond that, it's really difficult, which is getting back to the core, you know, value proposition of Bitcoin, which is that no matter what happens in a word, you have this preservation of your purchasing power so that you can, you know, in whatever unforeseen event, be able to buy what you need to buy.
798
00:58:31.920 --> 00:58:35.200
And I think the coin continues to prove that over time. But,
799
00:58:36.000 --> 00:58:50.299
regarding chips, I think chips are gonna remain an issue, but I can also see it becoming something else. I mean, you know, a few months ago, it was lumber. A few months before that, it was shipping. A few months before that, it was whatever. It's gonna be something. So you have to have a plan in place for paying
800
00:58:50.760 --> 00:58:56.539
much higher prices for what you would have otherwise purchased in 6 months from now because
801
00:58:57.015 --> 00:59:00.395
depending on what happens with China, depending on what happens with Taiwan,
802
00:59:00.935 --> 00:59:07.970
803
00:59:08.270 --> 00:59:08.770
nation,
804
00:59:09.470 --> 00:59:11.170
it's essentially business as usual.
805
00:59:11.470 --> 00:59:12.770
Like, you know,
806
00:59:13.464 --> 00:59:22.045
you you're just gonna deal with a known factories and move on. Right? The problem really is that we got too cozy in North America or developed world really,
807
00:59:22.869 --> 00:59:24.569
and and we don't manage
808
00:59:24.869 --> 00:59:29.930
supply chains anymore. You know, hospitals only had the weak supply of PPE,
809
00:59:30.230 --> 00:59:31.450
right, pre COVID.
810
00:59:31.985 --> 00:59:32.725
So it's
811
00:59:33.025 --> 00:59:38.405
just we're gonna have to adapt with, like, having a little bit more mindfulness on the stuff that we need
812
00:59:38.705 --> 00:59:44.290
813
00:59:45.070 --> 00:59:46.450
You better hoard them now.
814
00:59:49.194 --> 00:59:50.015
815
00:59:52.474 --> 00:59:58.170
Nick. Oh, did we lose Nick? We lost Nick. I hope his question he considers his question answered.
816
01:00:01.750 --> 01:00:02.250
I,
817
01:00:03.269 --> 01:00:05.115
I mean, I I'm I'm pretty concerned about
818
01:00:05.415 --> 01:00:07.035
it myself. I mean, I I think,
819
01:00:08.295 --> 01:00:10.395
on on the Bitcoin side of things,
820
01:00:11.700 --> 01:00:16.200
we can only expect ASIC costs to go up in terms of Bitcoin mining.
821
01:00:17.380 --> 01:00:19.160
So if you are trying to secure
822
01:00:21.135 --> 01:00:24.115
Bitcoin mining hardware, probably sooner rather than later. Right?
823
01:00:27.270 --> 01:00:34.890
824
01:00:39.835 --> 01:00:46.960
825
01:00:47.260 --> 01:00:47.760
826
01:00:48.140 --> 01:00:48.960
like, specifically,
827
01:00:49.740 --> 01:00:50.240
but,
828
01:00:51.020 --> 01:00:55.200
they are bottom of the line for fabs that I can tell you.
829
01:00:55.545 --> 01:01:01.805
Like, the the ASEC market, it's still, like, very tiny, and and it's not priority for fabs.
830
01:01:02.345 --> 01:01:02.744
So,
831
01:01:04.080 --> 01:01:05.860
you know, either price goes up,
832
01:01:06.640 --> 01:01:10.900
and and they can overpay the fabs. But but then again, right, like,
833
01:01:11.280 --> 01:01:11.940
you know,
834
01:01:12.484 --> 01:01:14.025
carmakers are buying
835
01:01:14.724 --> 01:01:16.984
tens of millions of chips,
836
01:01:17.365 --> 01:01:18.984
right, from from,
837
01:01:19.365 --> 01:01:20.585
a a fab. So
838
01:01:20.980 --> 01:01:27.480
it's gonna be very hard, at least for the next few years, maybe maybe in a couple say say Bitcoin
839
01:01:27.940 --> 01:01:28.440
crosses
840
01:01:28.980 --> 01:01:29.480
250,
841
01:01:30.395 --> 01:01:30.895
500,000,
842
01:01:31.835 --> 01:01:41.790
it's it changes the dynamic. Right? Because now Bitcoiners get priority on the stuff that they need because it pays so much. When I when I think about ASICs, my monkey brain basically
843
01:01:42.250 --> 01:01:47.150
844
01:01:47.835 --> 01:01:48.494
845
01:01:49.275 --> 01:01:51.375
they're very simple chips. Like,
846
01:01:51.755 --> 01:01:56.015
we're still like, the ASICs today are still, like, very
847
01:01:58.420 --> 01:01:59.960
non advanced things.
848
01:02:00.260 --> 01:02:04.120
849
01:02:05.655 --> 01:02:11.595
I think it only gets more difficult from here at least in the next year or 2 years,
850
01:02:11.975 --> 01:02:13.675
so, like, the more short term.
851
01:02:14.589 --> 01:02:21.250
I think if you I mean, I'm just gonna pat myself on the back a little bit. If you look at the home mining serial dispatch episode we did,
852
01:02:21.904 --> 01:02:26.964
I think it was serial dispatch 32. If you haven't listened to it yet, you should.
853
01:02:27.825 --> 01:02:35.180
I'm pretty sure that was, like, right at the bottom, and I think that could be, like, a 2 year bottom, 3 year bottom in terms of
854
01:02:35.640 --> 01:02:38.140
oh, no. It wasn't 32. Maybe it was
855
01:02:38.440 --> 01:02:38.940
31.
856
01:02:39.995 --> 01:02:41.775
Yeah. 31. CD 31.
857
01:02:43.595 --> 01:02:46.875
And I think it only goes up from here. So if you still want to hold mine,
858
01:02:48.070 --> 01:02:53.530
which I think everyone should at least get their hands dirty and try it, if not with just a a cheap s nine,
859
01:02:54.230 --> 01:02:55.030
to get started,
860
01:02:55.895 --> 01:02:59.515
You're gonna wanna do that sooner rather than later. I think if you hold off,
861
01:03:00.215 --> 01:03:03.115
you're just gonna probably regret holding off.
862
01:03:03.495 --> 01:03:04.155
863
01:03:04.599 --> 01:03:05.900
there is a ton
864
01:03:06.359 --> 01:03:07.099
of used
865
01:03:07.640 --> 01:03:10.460
mining hardware on Alibaba right now.
866
01:03:10.839 --> 01:03:12.940
So, like, I can't remember which generation,
867
01:03:13.535 --> 01:03:16.915
but it's like I remember looking at it a month ago
868
01:03:17.375 --> 01:03:19.555
and with stuff that was still useful.
869
01:03:20.549 --> 01:03:25.049
So, if you want a hobby mind, there there is stuff out there for, like, $1500
870
01:03:25.750 --> 01:03:26.490
a a rig.
871
01:03:27.029 --> 01:03:31.235
872
01:03:33.475 --> 01:03:34.775
there's there's definitely
873
01:03:35.075 --> 01:03:39.440
a lot of scams out there. There's definitely a lot of people that'll send you bad hardware,
874
01:03:41.260 --> 01:03:41.760
and,
875
01:03:43.099 --> 01:03:53.970
I I think it's it's easier to work with at least people that are have relatively good reputation in the space. I know Mind Farm by has very good reputation. He's on Twitter. If you DM him, he's very helpful.
876
01:03:56.030 --> 01:04:01.570
In that dispatch CD 31, we talked about other avenues that you can do. I think Kaboom Racks was one,
877
01:04:02.055 --> 01:04:03.595
that Ronan Miner recommended.
878
01:04:05.335 --> 01:04:11.275
But, yeah, if you're interested in Home Mining, go check that out that episode. We have we have the legend himself, Greg Zaj,
879
01:04:12.170 --> 01:04:14.430
on the speaker stage. He hasn't said anything.
880
01:04:15.690 --> 01:04:19.869
How are you doing, Greg? You you have a specific topic you wanna discuss while you're up here?
881
01:04:20.805 --> 01:04:33.190
882
01:04:33.730 --> 01:04:38.069
883
01:04:38.615 --> 01:04:39.115
So
884
01:04:41.415 --> 01:04:41.915
Yep.
885
01:04:42.375 --> 01:04:48.539
886
01:04:49.559 --> 01:04:54.779
I I wish you guys would talk a little bit more about what, what shortages you see coming up on the home front.
887
01:04:59.835 --> 01:05:01.535
888
01:05:02.555 --> 01:05:08.260
889
01:05:09.120 --> 01:05:13.365
the broker definition, anything on that too, if you care to talk about it.
890
01:05:15.285 --> 01:05:21.145
891
01:05:24.770 --> 01:05:25.830
892
01:05:26.770 --> 01:05:30.630
893
01:05:33.385 --> 01:05:40.365
894
01:05:40.985 --> 01:05:45.369
if you guys have, like, kinda thought out. I I personally ever since, like, all this kind of,
895
01:05:45.930 --> 01:05:46.430
manufacturing
896
01:05:46.890 --> 01:05:49.930
supply shortage we started back in January, I've been thinking that,
897
01:05:52.875 --> 01:06:02.430
the shipping costs and commodity prices going up is gonna likely result in some serious squeezes for employers and insurance providers,
898
01:06:03.210 --> 01:06:06.030
maybe starting this fall or winter. And I'm wondering if you guys have
899
01:06:06.635 --> 01:06:07.135
considered,
900
01:06:07.915 --> 01:06:16.070
what that's gonna do, the macro outlook affecting employment rates and the housing market and rents and everything that we're kinda seeing start to bubble back up into
901
01:06:16.930 --> 01:06:17.510
the focus.
902
01:06:18.530 --> 01:06:19.670
Danielle d Martino,
903
01:06:20.050 --> 01:06:24.215
Danielle d Martino Booth, actually, has been kind of championing this the last couple of months.
904
01:06:25.015 --> 01:06:27.195
905
01:06:27.495 --> 01:06:27.995
Right?
906
01:06:28.615 --> 01:06:30.635
I mean, just as a point of reference,
907
01:06:31.175 --> 01:06:36.200
I can't talk about who because of the contract is is in their NDA, but
908
01:06:36.660 --> 01:06:38.040
I have an old client,
909
01:06:38.660 --> 01:06:39.720
that that does,
910
01:06:40.340 --> 01:06:40.840
like,
911
01:06:42.885 --> 01:06:44.105
how can I put this?
912
01:06:45.765 --> 01:06:48.985
Anyways, they have a lot of servers for a certain service.
913
01:06:49.365 --> 01:06:49.865
Right?
914
01:06:50.900 --> 01:06:51.400
This
915
01:06:51.700 --> 01:06:54.200
is a fairly like it's a reasonably sized company.
916
01:06:54.660 --> 01:06:56.440
And one of their suppliers
917
01:06:56.980 --> 01:07:01.085
that is a competitor to Google on a very specific type of service,
918
01:07:01.545 --> 01:07:02.845
a mapping type service.
919
01:07:03.785 --> 01:07:06.045
They just sent an email today saying,
920
01:07:06.345 --> 01:07:11.600
so we're gonna probably increase our our our, prices by 15 to 25%
921
01:07:12.620 --> 01:07:13.760
starting next year.
922
01:07:14.380 --> 01:07:15.935
Oh, shit. So so, like,
923
01:07:16.495 --> 01:07:18.675
and this is, like, major corporation
924
01:07:19.215 --> 01:07:20.675
with, like, reasonably
925
01:07:21.455 --> 01:07:21.955
large
926
01:07:22.575 --> 01:07:23.075
corporation.
927
01:07:23.615 --> 01:07:24.115
Right?
928
01:07:24.815 --> 01:07:25.315
Like,
929
01:07:26.579 --> 01:07:27.640
if these guys,
930
01:07:28.900 --> 01:07:30.680
affect a whole industry
931
01:07:31.059 --> 01:07:32.599
related to map things
932
01:07:33.345 --> 01:07:34.645
or location things.
933
01:07:36.065 --> 01:07:37.765
I can't even begin
934
01:07:38.065 --> 01:07:40.244
to just to comprehend, like,
935
01:07:40.920 --> 01:07:48.540
the the other stuff. Right? I mean, I know that chips, the manufacturers are all raising their prices 5 to 10% across the board.
936
01:07:49.125 --> 01:07:54.025
Right? So when you compound these things, I mean, it gets pretty crazy.
937
01:07:54.405 --> 01:08:03.050
938
01:08:03.430 --> 01:08:12.335
Yeah. When you see these prices, like, that's just the actual like, if they're just they're keeping the cost the same by raising it by 15%. But but here's the thing though, Aaron. Like, these
939
01:08:12.715 --> 01:08:23.780
940
01:08:24.325 --> 01:08:25.545
So they could absorb
941
01:08:26.085 --> 01:08:30.425
so so there's there's 2 ways you can look at this. Right? They they can either absorb,
942
01:08:31.580 --> 01:08:35.360
the stuff because they have access to free capital or near free capital,
943
01:08:36.139 --> 01:08:43.095
or we have a serious problem here, which is even with nearly free capital, you still cannot hold your prices.
944
01:08:43.555 --> 01:08:52.480
945
01:08:52.860 --> 01:08:59.935
at 25 basis points. Like, there's there's nothing lower than 25 basis points for a for a debt note. You know? Like, it doesn't get cheaper. So
946
01:09:00.895 --> 01:09:02.514
yeah. It's nuts. Like, that's
947
01:09:02.815 --> 01:09:04.994
948
01:09:05.390 --> 01:09:10.130
949
01:09:10.830 --> 01:09:11.330
bonanza
950
01:09:12.110 --> 01:09:18.295
with, like, we can't, you know, invest, we can't do drilling, no new wells, you know, stop any sort of offshore exploration,
951
01:09:19.555 --> 01:09:20.455
no new pipeline.
952
01:09:20.845 --> 01:09:29.550
US. Yeah. So now the cost of energy, of course, is going up, and I there's no investment in bringing new supply online. We're having to solve these discussions with OPEC.
953
01:09:29.915 --> 01:09:48.005
So I don't see any reason for energy prices to go down. In fact, I'd see every all the signs pointing to higher energy prices over the next couple years because no one wants to go to nuclear facility. No one wants to do anything. No new drilling. Blah blah blah. So now you have as a minor also to consider just your raw energy cost. So I'd say I don't see any reason for those to go down.
954
01:09:49.265 --> 01:09:55.125
955
01:09:58.100 --> 01:10:01.720
956
01:10:02.900 --> 01:10:05.625
Spaces is still trying to figure out their connection issues.
957
01:10:06.245 --> 01:10:07.145
So I, like,
958
01:10:08.325 --> 01:10:12.425
literally, I don't understand how any that that's it. Thank you.
959
01:10:13.400 --> 01:10:17.800
I I don't understand how any like, you could put all these pieces together like you guys have,
960
01:10:18.199 --> 01:10:22.985
even while I lagged out, and then, like, how does it not squeeze employers to where,
961
01:10:23.865 --> 01:10:29.385
employment and housing becomes a massive issue in in America? And then, obviously, these issues bleed out into
962
01:10:30.480 --> 01:10:36.179
963
01:10:36.560 --> 01:10:37.060
So,
964
01:10:37.520 --> 01:10:40.805
one way shareholders are gonna find their continue,
965
01:10:41.825 --> 01:10:42.965
expected returns,
966
01:10:43.585 --> 01:10:48.710
right, is by not going back to an office. Right. So businesses have found
967
01:10:49.090 --> 01:10:55.190
an ungodly amount of cash that was being wasted in putting people that don't produce anything in an office
968
01:10:55.915 --> 01:10:56.415
doing
969
01:10:57.034 --> 01:10:58.494
anything. Right? So,
970
01:10:59.355 --> 01:11:07.230
I mean, aside from essentially But every day, they're also taking the cost of lower productivity. I mean, let's be honest. Like, people No. No. For sure for sure they are, but but the ratio
971
01:11:07.610 --> 01:11:09.309
the ratio is key. Right?
972
01:11:09.770 --> 01:11:10.270
So
973
01:11:10.705 --> 01:11:18.324
if they are not innovating, right, so if they're not creating new products or anything, they're just pressing the print button on existing stuff.
974
01:11:19.630 --> 01:11:24.210
Right? They they can find that same productivity in regards to to cost
975
01:11:24.830 --> 01:11:30.285
sorry, in regards to profit ratios. Right? So they're they're able to still make great profit,
976
01:11:30.985 --> 01:11:37.550
with the old stuff and just maintaining support for the old stuff. What we might stop seeing is new stuff.
977
01:11:38.170 --> 01:11:44.350
978
01:11:44.804 --> 01:11:51.304
So there's no innovation. There's no, like, new things being created. But the existing business lines are just, like, you know, they're
979
01:11:51.605 --> 01:11:55.540
squeezing out. Yeah. They're squeezing out as much profit as possible because now they don't have to pay for
980
01:11:55.920 --> 01:11:57.140
facilities, security,
981
01:11:58.080 --> 01:12:00.500
washing the windows, coffee, outings,
982
01:12:00.800 --> 01:12:04.864
983
01:12:05.244 --> 01:12:06.145
I I think
984
01:12:06.525 --> 01:12:07.585
we're gonna see,
985
01:12:08.525 --> 01:12:13.720
a lot more clever businesses operations where they are able to innovate and and create things
986
01:12:14.100 --> 01:12:15.640
with people being more remote,
987
01:12:17.304 --> 01:12:21.085
And and we're gonna see automation. Like, this is essentially just
988
01:12:21.465 --> 01:12:23.245
just just like hyperaccelerating
989
01:12:23.945 --> 01:12:27.350
automation of positions that shouldn't exist anymore to begin with.
990
01:12:27.650 --> 01:12:36.375
Right? Yep. Especially warehousing and shit like that. I mean, this should all should be a conveyor belt. Right? There is no reason for a human to be involved in this shit anymore.
991
01:12:36.915 --> 01:12:39.014
It's kinda like IKEA. Right? Like,
992
01:12:39.554 --> 01:12:42.740
almost everything IKEA makes sense. It's our robot, that makes it
993
01:12:43.940 --> 01:12:45.160
and ships it.
994
01:12:46.820 --> 01:12:48.840
995
01:12:58.255 --> 01:12:59.795
996
01:13:00.720 --> 01:13:07.380
997
01:13:08.205 --> 01:13:13.344
998
01:13:13.965 --> 01:13:28.055
from people sitting in a desk on Wall Street to people now just fully gambling on on some stupid JavaScript script on Ethereum, right? I mean, it just moved on to to the next thing that involves even less people.
999
01:13:30.995 --> 01:13:31.495
1000
01:13:32.150 --> 01:13:35.450
I think this conversation's been pretty constructive so far.
1001
01:13:36.230 --> 01:13:37.850
Maybe we should move on.
1002
01:13:38.870 --> 01:13:45.054
We have Jeff Ross up here on the speaker stage. Jeff, you have anything to add? How's it going over there?
1003
01:13:45.355 --> 01:13:55.610
1004
01:13:56.405 --> 01:14:00.745
and our lackluster economy and lack of innovation, this is this is the beginning,
1005
01:14:01.525 --> 01:14:02.905
pains of stagflation.
1006
01:14:03.390 --> 01:14:12.770
And I think that this decade is gonna be basically an entire decade of stagflation. Now what that means is the economy just doesn't grow. It's got it's just way overindebted
1007
01:14:13.070 --> 01:14:16.835
and stuck in supply chain issues, but inflation will remain high
1008
01:14:17.215 --> 01:14:24.650
and or, it will it will accelerate kinda throughout this decade. And so that's pretty ugly. The last time we had something like this was back in the seventies.
1009
01:14:25.190 --> 01:14:35.645
And, you know, most of us are too young to remember that, but that was a pretty ugly decade and a pretty volatile, tumultuous decade as well. So I see kind of the same thing happening this time around as well.
1010
01:14:36.185 --> 01:14:41.949
If we didn't have Bitcoin, I would be really stressed out about it. But, because of Bitcoin, that's kind of our escape valve.
1011
01:14:42.810 --> 01:14:49.215
Companies are gonna have a rough decade. Bonds are gonna have a rough decade. Hard assets should do well from an investment standpoint.
1012
01:14:49.835 --> 01:14:54.494
1013
01:14:55.900 --> 01:14:58.640
like, publicly traded companies, like equities, stocks?
1014
01:14:59.580 --> 01:15:09.125
1015
01:15:09.425 --> 01:15:13.525
of artificial gains, basically, but valuations are so, so obnoxiously
1016
01:15:13.825 --> 01:15:19.030
1017
01:15:20.530 --> 01:15:22.215
Yeah. What else do you buy, Jeff?
1018
01:15:23.014 --> 01:15:29.835
1019
01:15:30.570 --> 01:15:38.590
K. Right. Can I finish? So so Bitcoin, hard assets, commodities should do very well. Gold actually may hang in there a little bit.
1020
01:15:39.954 --> 01:15:44.215
Stocks in general are not gonna do well. Bonds in general will not do well.
1021
01:15:44.675 --> 01:15:46.135
Just basically proinflationary
1022
01:15:46.675 --> 01:15:47.494
type investments
1023
01:15:47.910 --> 01:15:49.449
should do well over the decade.
1024
01:15:51.030 --> 01:15:54.650
1025
01:15:55.030 --> 01:15:56.890
there'll be very few things to buy.
1026
01:15:57.605 --> 01:15:58.105
And,
1027
01:15:58.645 --> 01:16:00.905
a lot of these companies are gonna be able to milk,
1028
01:16:01.844 --> 01:16:11.250
they're gonna queue r and d, right, to save. They're gonna kill real expensive real estate because now they have an excuse to to lay everybody off saying, you know, we can go back to an office because of COVID.
1029
01:16:12.910 --> 01:16:15.250
And those are essentially the 2 biggest costs,
1030
01:16:16.324 --> 01:16:17.705
that are not immediate,
1031
01:16:18.165 --> 01:16:19.304
return. Right?
1032
01:16:20.405 --> 01:16:27.130
And and and then they're gonna just milk the current production lines, the current product lines for for the next decade,
1033
01:16:27.510 --> 01:16:30.330
which may make them actually fairly profitable,
1034
01:16:32.775 --> 01:16:37.915
but but not really contribute anything to the future. I mean, if they last after that, that's a different problem.
1035
01:16:38.215 --> 01:16:41.755
But at least in the immediate future, I think they'll actually become even more profitable.
1036
01:16:42.550 --> 01:16:53.925
1037
01:16:54.705 --> 01:17:01.030
where, it just kinda blows to be, you know, in the country because innovation will be lacking except in certain specific areas.
1038
01:17:01.410 --> 01:17:12.295
So it's just gonna be a tough time, and and this is what happens in these huge transitions period. I think what we're doing is transitioning from, the analog age to the digital age and from, you know, human workers to, automation,
1039
01:17:12.835 --> 01:17:19.960
and that's ugly. In the in the future, we'll look back and be like, oh, yeah. This is when we transition kinda like how we transition from the horse and carriage to the automobile.
1040
01:17:21.320 --> 01:17:30.355
But, it it it it's not without its ugliness, and it's gonna be frustrating for a lot of people. And it's gonna be hard for most investors, especially most, typical, like, older
1041
01:17:30.815 --> 01:17:37.140
Vanguard investors who have the 60 40 portfolios of stocks and bonds, they're gonna get absolutely wrecked this decade.
1042
01:17:38.800 --> 01:17:49.474
1043
01:17:50.190 --> 01:17:52.929
I see no resolve regarding monopoly
1044
01:17:53.230 --> 01:17:53.730
antitrust.
1045
01:17:54.190 --> 01:17:58.449
So the bigger just keep getting bigger and gobbling up more, which was gonna help the index.
1046
01:17:58.805 --> 01:18:06.265
2 is, the Fed is thinking about thinking about thinking about tapering, but it it's not gonna happen, and it's not gonna happen to any extent.
1047
01:18:06.850 --> 01:18:20.355
That's gonna be significant, which means the cost of capital is gonna remain at the floor, which means companies that are especially large and have access to 25 basis point credit will continue to max that out and buy back their own shares and consolidate and merge to drive their stock price higher.
1048
01:18:21.295 --> 01:18:24.034
I see economies of scale and the Internet.
1049
01:18:24.620 --> 01:18:34.395
You know, there's nothing stopping that. So, you know, all these huge tech giants will just continue to gain. Bitcoin, obviously, I think is positioned the best here because people are gonna realize the effects
1050
01:18:34.775 --> 01:18:37.915
are you know, we have the bill is gonna come due ultimately for what we're doing.
1051
01:18:38.935 --> 01:18:46.219
I think also the pensions have essentially a Fed put at their, you know, as a tailwind. They they cannot
1052
01:18:47.239 --> 01:18:50.940
go below they they've been forced into equities. They have to make 7%.
1053
01:18:51.640 --> 01:19:15.485
It's it's the old people and the veterans and the teachers and the firefighters who would need to build out. So the Fed is gonna make sure that the stock portfolio of all these pension funds as well. So they'll continue to offer credit and various other incentive programs like this crazy infrastructure bill that's mostly just going to slash funds and various other programs and initiatives. The treasury has over a $1,000,000,000,000 in its TGA right now to allocate.
1054
01:19:16.425 --> 01:19:20.080
The Fed is gonna continue to buy real estate, mortgage backed securities.
1055
01:19:21.660 --> 01:19:28.080
So I just think I every for me, it even though even at these prices, which is insane that we are at a 25
1056
01:19:28.905 --> 01:19:41.310
p on the S and P that it can continue to go higher, but it's just what else is there to buy? I mean, aside from Bitcoin, like, what else is there to buy? So I totally agree with everything you just said, Aaron, but the one caveat that I think is the huge caveat is
1057
01:19:41.770 --> 01:19:54.940
1058
01:19:55.560 --> 01:20:17.110
that the the, underlying so the denominator, the US dollar is gonna be depreciating at least as fast as the gains that we see even in the big tech companies, I think. So I think I think nominal gains will be positive. Real returns are gonna be flat to negative over the coming decade. But, Jeff, I I don't I don't think it matters, right, for for all these these funds because
1059
01:20:17.965 --> 01:20:25.025
1060
01:20:25.350 --> 01:20:26.730
as long as that number
1061
01:20:27.110 --> 01:20:29.850
still looks better than the official numbers,
1062
01:20:30.230 --> 01:20:39.195
right, you you're still sort of you you survive another day. Right? Right. So that's the main problem. Right. I mean, in reality, they're all fucked.
1063
01:20:39.974 --> 01:20:53.090
1064
01:20:53.405 --> 01:20:54.145
understands economics.
1065
01:20:55.085 --> 01:20:59.265
1066
01:20:59.805 --> 01:21:02.305
like, government stated mandates
1067
01:21:02.650 --> 01:21:07.870
that they have to hold, say, 30% of the fund in bonds. Right? It it's not even optional
1068
01:21:08.410 --> 01:21:13.225
for for dispension funds on the stuff that they can invest in. So Yep.
1069
01:21:13.665 --> 01:21:21.770
And they have a lot of smart people in them. So these guys see the writing on the wall. They they most of them just have their hides their their hands completely tight.
1070
01:21:23.370 --> 01:21:28.030
1071
01:21:29.165 --> 01:21:31.905
And are is stocks and bonds and even 30 3%.
1072
01:21:32.765 --> 01:21:39.160
Just gonna be a proxy continue to be a proxy for for inflation at a nominal rate. And so, yeah, if it is 33%,
1073
01:21:39.940 --> 01:21:43.720
what is the only asset that can actually get over that hurdle rate?
1074
01:21:44.535 --> 01:21:47.185
1075
01:21:47.805 --> 01:21:56.040
1076
01:21:56.420 --> 01:21:57.400
hey. Shoot.
1077
01:21:57.780 --> 01:22:05.474
I can't keep up with any of my traditional stuff, and now I need Bitcoin. When does when does that point when it was over that point and see the just hordes
1078
01:22:05.775 --> 01:22:08.434
hordes coming in. The real sad squeeze. Right?
1079
01:22:13.640 --> 01:22:17.500
1080
01:22:17.800 --> 01:22:19.545
pretty much 20 years ago. Right?
1081
01:22:21.065 --> 01:22:30.260
So so now really is you know, they're they're just gonna manage this, and and they could manage this. So if we don't have some black swan that completely obliterates
1082
01:22:30.960 --> 01:22:31.700
some major,
1083
01:22:32.480 --> 01:22:33.620
western government,
1084
01:22:35.495 --> 01:22:40.715
mainly the US, these guys can keep on going with this stuff for another 20, 50 years.
1085
01:22:41.255 --> 01:22:42.475
It it's not impossible.
1086
01:22:42.910 --> 01:22:48.290
1087
01:22:48.910 --> 01:23:00.275
the US dollar is trash. But if you're in other countries, it's much more acute and it's easy to see. Like, you can literally opt out and you see your you know, the value appreciate, like, 30% in the year, 50% in the year, whatever.
1088
01:23:00.700 --> 01:23:11.335
Or even, you know, trip, triple digits. But when you're in United States, you see the same effect. But because we're so large, you can't comprehend the amount of inflows that will come first
1089
01:23:11.875 --> 01:23:15.494
from all of these other countries with other fiats that are far, far inferior.
1090
01:23:15.920 --> 01:23:19.219
They're come to the dollar and then go ahead. Yeah.
1091
01:23:20.320 --> 01:23:22.500
1092
01:23:22.880 --> 01:23:25.380
is mostly to the dollar. Dollarized.
1093
01:23:26.065 --> 01:23:27.205
Everybody's dollarized.
1094
01:23:28.065 --> 01:23:35.045
There is a fallacy that people so so US is the last to fall. Yes. Some people don't understand. Yeah. Timing.
1095
01:23:36.070 --> 01:23:40.490
It it it really is. Like, I mean, like, everybody goes down first. So
1096
01:23:41.590 --> 01:23:42.970
how that plays out,
1097
01:23:44.355 --> 01:23:53.130
it's beyond me. I mean, because, like, what? Are you gonna just, like, recapture America or something? Like, how do you handle the fact that you are essentially
1098
01:23:55.350 --> 01:23:58.970
the the first to fall? Right? That that's true especially for Europe.
1099
01:23:59.585 --> 01:24:05.045
1100
01:24:05.425 --> 01:24:08.485
large. So it's not like there's some sort of imminent collapse.
1101
01:24:09.180 --> 01:24:10.800
It's just gonna be a cascade,
1102
01:24:11.260 --> 01:24:14.480
and the 1st dominoes to fall are the smallest countries.
1103
01:24:14.860 --> 01:24:18.485
So we've already seen this, you know, like, with opting out in Turkey, opting
1104
01:24:19.045 --> 01:24:24.505
out in very small countries, and then it goes on. But the timeline is much longer than I think a lot of people understand.
1105
01:24:25.125 --> 01:24:27.300
1106
01:24:27.619 --> 01:24:32.679
everything is traded at such a high percentage in dollars on the maybe not on the front, but on the back end,
1107
01:24:33.059 --> 01:24:34.599
is it does it make it easier
1108
01:24:35.175 --> 01:24:40.155
for the Fed and the US to just rug the, right, the current dollar system
1109
01:24:40.455 --> 01:24:46.910
and sub it for the CBDC version they've been talking about? Like, do you guys see that as a media possibility?
1110
01:24:49.655 --> 01:24:54.395
1111
01:24:54.695 --> 01:24:56.395
Nobody is in civil war.
1112
01:24:57.015 --> 01:24:57.515
And
1113
01:24:58.620 --> 01:25:06.240
as we say in Canada, Bob is your uncle. Just continue going as you are. You're surviving it. They they they literally got over 2,008
1114
01:25:06.860 --> 01:25:08.000
without a scuff,
1115
01:25:08.675 --> 01:25:09.655
politically speaking.
1116
01:25:10.994 --> 01:25:15.494
1117
01:25:15.950 --> 01:25:28.335
We already have the dominant position. Like, we don't need more than 70% or 80% or whatever share of global trade that we have. It's fine. And we'd actually rather to devalue our currency, and it's very difficult to do that. Like, the more devaluation, the better.
1118
01:25:28.795 --> 01:25:36.140
But the response is just that, okay. Well, China's doing it and the Euro is doing it, so we have to do it, obviously. We'll do it after them and crush them.
1119
01:25:36.440 --> 01:25:51.565
But we just have to be prepared for that. So let's get our, you know, the prep work done so that we're ready to go once that launches. So people realize, as always, that they can't compete with the US dollar. If they try to, we will smash them. That's pretty much the the role of the fed dollar. It's not actually gonna do anything.
1120
01:25:51.870 --> 01:25:55.490
It's just gonna be a response to the international community trying to,
1121
01:25:56.270 --> 01:25:58.610
supplant even a little bit of our denomination
1122
01:25:59.150 --> 01:26:01.775
and just saying, no. You actually can't because we can do it better.
1123
01:26:02.815 --> 01:26:04.515
1124
01:26:05.375 --> 01:26:09.300
so maybe not in terms of, like, the monetary policy as much as, like well,
1125
01:26:10.179 --> 01:26:13.320
I I firmly believe that there's there's a there's a plan to,
1126
01:26:13.940 --> 01:26:24.875
you know, put some type of control grid in place when it comes to buying and selling and and how we can do such things. And I know that Bitcoin will allow us to circumvent that a lot, but I I don't think
1127
01:26:25.335 --> 01:26:26.554
that that's too far,
1128
01:26:26.855 --> 01:26:29.710
you know, too far fetched to say, hey. Maybe they
1129
01:26:30.250 --> 01:26:34.510
will move forward on this just for the sake of trying to control those who are, you know, unvaccinated
1130
01:26:34.890 --> 01:26:42.625
1131
01:26:43.240 --> 01:27:03.390
industry. They put out the buyer post saying, hey. Any anonymity enhanced, currency no matter what it is, no matter what name it is. If you're a financial institution, you're not allowed to recommend it. You're not allowed to talk about it. You're not allowed to allow any of your clients to use it. This is already proposed. It's in draft language going to the floor of our congress to debate these, you know, pro total prohibitions regarding anonymity,
1132
01:27:03.850 --> 01:27:09.844
no mixers, no coin joints, blah blah blah. I mean, it's crazy. So they don't even need the CBDC to introduce these controls.
1133
01:27:10.224 --> 01:27:14.005
1134
01:27:14.430 --> 01:27:17.170
than, say, the big sequencing act. Right? Because,
1135
01:27:17.550 --> 01:27:24.805
see, when you have legislation like that that is, that is very specific and is very, clear. Right?
1136
01:27:25.745 --> 01:27:30.460
You you give people way around it because we'll come out come out with ways around that.
1137
01:27:31.020 --> 01:27:35.680
The issue really is stuff like the Bank Secrecy Act because it's selective enforcement.
1138
01:27:36.460 --> 01:27:38.480
Right? So you don't know.
1139
01:27:39.275 --> 01:27:42.175
And it's written there. They're not even allowed to tell you
1140
01:27:42.554 --> 01:27:49.250
why they're doing what they're doing. And that's why they've been so successful at present as as preventing, like, porn people, the pot people,
1141
01:27:49.710 --> 01:27:51.010
or whatever undesirable,
1142
01:27:52.030 --> 01:27:55.010
industry from banking. Right? So I'm actually
1143
01:27:55.310 --> 01:27:56.290
less concerned
1144
01:27:57.295 --> 01:27:57.795
about
1145
01:27:58.175 --> 01:28:03.074
the the the this new bill or however they wanna do it as long as they they make it so it's clear,
1146
01:28:03.775 --> 01:28:09.330
than I am about the other stuff. They're gonna keep on adding, and nobody's gonna fight because he can't even fight.
1147
01:28:11.230 --> 01:28:17.945
1148
01:28:18.485 --> 01:28:21.145
So it would just continue to come. It's an onslaught.
1149
01:28:21.445 --> 01:28:22.585
It would just be
1150
01:28:23.110 --> 01:28:24.090
Bitcoin versus
1151
01:28:24.469 --> 01:28:38.785
the BSA pretty much or Bitcoin versus treasury if you wanna frame it in a in a US centric way. It's gonna be we don't want the treasury doesn't want anyone to do anything privately as long as you tell us absolutely all of your transactions. It's totally fine. Just just give us a report.
1152
01:28:39.100 --> 01:28:53.455
Whenever you do something, if you're a financial institution in any way, just tell us exactly what your customers are doing. No problem. And then it's gonna be that versus what actually Bitcoin was intended to do, which which is to allow people to conduct their own affairs and do their own business in private, which is a right.
1153
01:28:56.580 --> 01:28:57.080
1154
01:28:57.620 --> 01:28:59.719
I I don't think they care about rights.
1155
01:29:00.980 --> 01:29:17.719
1156
01:29:19.435 --> 01:29:31.380
The the Bayer bill is intentionally vague, and I I did I did notice exactly what Aaron said. The it even says in the bill that just like the treasury department gets to say what the definitions of the bill mean.
1157
01:29:32.880 --> 01:29:33.440
We have,
1158
01:29:34.320 --> 01:29:37.620
we have Evan Kaludis up on stage. He hasn't spoke.
1159
01:29:38.215 --> 01:29:42.235
Evan, you have anything to add here? You have any topics you want us to discuss?
1160
01:29:46.460 --> 01:29:46.960
1161
01:29:50.300 --> 01:29:53.985
1162
01:29:55.885 --> 01:29:57.745
Talking about narratives and memes,
1163
01:29:58.525 --> 01:30:02.305
one thing that Bitcoin Twitter loves saying is Bitcoin fixes this.
1164
01:30:04.030 --> 01:30:07.730
In terms of the whole situation in Afghanistan right now,
1165
01:30:08.030 --> 01:30:11.665
how does Bitcoin fix that? Does Bitcoin fix that? Oh.
1166
01:30:12.764 --> 01:30:15.264
1167
01:30:17.645 --> 01:30:18.364
1168
01:30:18.844 --> 01:30:24.950
it also prevents, like, going a little bit farther than than that. It it prevents well, we we saw some of the issues,
1169
01:30:25.410 --> 01:30:30.795
that fiat money allows within the infrastructure bill that Matt just brought up.
1170
01:30:31.655 --> 01:30:35.435
These politicians are getting paid, and they're getting paid to
1171
01:30:36.159 --> 01:30:36.659
essentially
1172
01:30:37.040 --> 01:30:37.540
reorganize
1173
01:30:37.920 --> 01:30:44.500
tax dollars to go to wherever their buddies are paying them to also get paid. So, like,
1174
01:30:45.635 --> 01:30:49.475
yeah. Like, you wanna talk about politicians or corporate lobbying for,
1175
01:30:50.035 --> 01:30:51.015
military spending.
1176
01:30:52.250 --> 01:30:58.110
It basically Bitcoin removes the capability of America to wage war to maintain,
1177
01:30:58.489 --> 01:30:59.210
her economic
1178
01:31:00.635 --> 01:31:06.275
I don't even wanna say dominance. Like, America's economy is strictly reliant on the,
1179
01:31:07.235 --> 01:31:08.935
a perpetual war, essentially.
1180
01:31:09.555 --> 01:31:09.875
So,
1181
01:31:10.940 --> 01:31:11.480
yeah, Bitcoin
1182
01:31:11.860 --> 01:31:14.520
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily remove war,
1183
01:31:15.780 --> 01:31:20.485
as I or remove the capability of funding a war, but it removes the capability of
1184
01:31:21.525 --> 01:31:23.465
falsely funding a war.
1185
01:31:23.925 --> 01:31:28.344
You would you would need a vast majority of your citizenry to be willing to
1186
01:31:29.190 --> 01:31:32.170
essentially purchase war bonds, like, in World War 2
1187
01:31:32.470 --> 01:31:45.324
1188
01:31:45.910 --> 01:31:51.850
actually, that's the way that income source deduction started about. It was a one time war measure
1189
01:31:52.230 --> 01:31:59.445
where they couldn't print the money yet, So they were just, okay. You know, we're gonna take capture some of the the salary, right,
1190
01:31:59.985 --> 01:32:01.205
at the source because
1191
01:32:01.590 --> 01:32:05.530
if people have to pay their taxes after the fact, they would rebel.
1192
01:32:06.310 --> 01:32:06.810
So,
1193
01:32:07.350 --> 01:32:17.425
they started source deduction like that, and source deduction is was the cleverest way of taking people's money without people sort of really noticing because it's not out of their bank account.
1194
01:32:19.000 --> 01:32:28.695
1195
01:32:29.075 --> 01:32:34.775
of work down the game theory as far as you're not gonna the likelihood is you're not gonna get them vast majority of a population,
1196
01:32:35.420 --> 01:32:36.560
large enough, like,
1197
01:32:37.580 --> 01:32:40.080
I I you can use America, like, 350,000,000
1198
01:32:40.460 --> 01:32:46.215
people or whatever. You're not gonna get the vast majority to agree to a war unless something significant like Pearl Harbor,
1199
01:32:46.594 --> 01:32:47.094
happens.
1200
01:32:47.474 --> 01:32:49.974
Even then, I I think the likelihood is very,
1201
01:32:50.594 --> 01:32:56.420
poor. But then, like, when you kinda game it out as far as using war as a
1202
01:32:57.199 --> 01:32:59.139
political or economic tactic,
1203
01:33:00.445 --> 01:33:06.385
With Bitcoin, it becomes much more economic and much more realistic and much more agreeable
1204
01:33:06.685 --> 01:33:09.950
to come to mutual agreement or terms via trade.
1205
01:33:11.150 --> 01:33:13.790
Then then there's no loss of life. There's no,
1206
01:33:14.750 --> 01:33:15.810
there's no violence
1207
01:33:16.510 --> 01:33:17.650
and there's essentially,
1208
01:33:18.430 --> 01:33:20.255
well, peace. I I would hope.
1209
01:33:25.275 --> 01:33:36.159
1210
01:33:39.195 --> 01:33:42.895
1211
01:33:43.755 --> 01:33:46.415
I kinda had a just interesting thought experiment.
1212
01:33:46.840 --> 01:33:48.140
Curious to see what people,
1213
01:33:48.600 --> 01:33:49.580
reaction to.
1214
01:33:50.680 --> 01:33:53.785
Let's assume, like, in the next 5 years, we have
1215
01:33:54.345 --> 01:33:54.845
hyperbitcoinization.
1216
01:33:56.025 --> 01:33:59.965
And just take that as a given for the moment. Is it more likely to happen,
1217
01:34:01.225 --> 01:34:03.325
on the tail end of
1218
01:34:03.630 --> 01:34:14.715
fiat currency failing and people being forced into Bitcoin? Or is it more likely to happen because smart people start front running it very soon and it leads to a cascading effect?
1219
01:34:16.375 --> 01:34:17.835
1220
01:34:18.910 --> 01:34:24.290
Reality is usually somewhere in between the extremes, and I think what you just labeled were extremes.
1221
01:34:25.710 --> 01:34:26.210
Unfortunately,
1222
01:34:26.590 --> 01:34:30.675
I feel like this and this is where I think a lot of people are gonna disagree with me.
1223
01:34:32.175 --> 01:34:33.875
Unfortunately, I think that the average
1224
01:34:34.335 --> 01:34:34.835
citizen,
1225
01:34:35.454 --> 01:34:40.230
who doesn't really wanna put forth the efforts to do their own research is going to
1226
01:34:40.930 --> 01:34:43.090
really drag their feet on doing what is,
1227
01:34:43.490 --> 01:34:45.020
best. We don't really,
1228
01:34:45.895 --> 01:34:47.755
we don't really need to look very far,
1229
01:34:48.215 --> 01:34:49.675
much farther than the
1230
01:34:50.135 --> 01:34:52.535
there was a study that went out that they were,
1231
01:34:53.495 --> 01:35:02.010
I believe it was the National Institute of Health said that by 2030, they're estimating that 78% of Americans are gonna be at at the very least overweight, if not obese.
1232
01:35:02.765 --> 01:35:05.965
That should tell you right there that most people are gonna put in the the,
1233
01:35:06.285 --> 01:35:12.960
most minimum amount of effort to do what is necessary or do what they should for their own health, whether it's financial or physical.
1234
01:35:13.740 --> 01:35:20.240
So I unfortunately, I think that the majority of the the populace is gonna wait till the very last minute. They're the ones that are gonna get hurt the most.
1235
01:35:20.545 --> 01:35:22.005
1236
01:35:22.385 --> 01:35:26.885
So, and and not by the way, your answer, that's usually how I answer things. The truth is somewhere in the middle.
1237
01:35:27.344 --> 01:35:29.764
But the the the, the front running
1238
01:35:30.330 --> 01:35:33.550
idea I had is that it created such a cascading
1239
01:35:34.170 --> 01:35:39.790
effect that it forced people into it just because of how fast it was going up, even though, like,
1240
01:35:40.195 --> 01:35:42.295
the dollar wasn't really even failing yet.
1241
01:35:45.315 --> 01:35:46.855
1242
01:35:47.235 --> 01:35:50.610
I mean, I wish this wasn't the case, but I I think it is, unfortunately,
1243
01:35:51.070 --> 01:35:53.810
that the government just won't allow hyperbolicolonization.
1244
01:35:54.910 --> 01:36:06.159
Or they will do everything and they will pull up all their entire toolkit and use every single one to stop it. So I think it's very difficult within a 5 year time frame to have that type of outlook. It's just
1245
01:36:06.460 --> 01:36:12.159
difficult for me to see how given how powerful the incumbents are that they could allow such a thing to happen.
1246
01:36:12.565 --> 01:36:15.385
But I think if it were to happen, it would be probably people
1247
01:36:15.925 --> 01:36:16.825
learning about,
1248
01:36:17.525 --> 01:36:20.985
the value of Bitcoin. I think it's incredible to see how quickly
1249
01:36:21.850 --> 01:36:33.185
awareness of the most basic properties of Bitcoin has spread around the world. People understand, like, it's a thing and it holds its own value that's independent of everything else. Even just that basic concept,
1250
01:36:33.565 --> 01:36:34.705
there's now probably,
1251
01:36:35.245 --> 01:36:36.945
I don't know, about a 1000000000 people
1252
01:36:37.360 --> 01:36:46.905
or more who understand that the most basic concept, and it's it's something that you can buy that you can hold that holds its value digitally. And then as people learn more about it, like,
1253
01:36:47.465 --> 01:36:51.885
it's a way you can send payments to anyone without any financial intermediary.
1254
01:36:52.744 --> 01:37:00.969
You know, you can do it to you can hold your own, you know, Bitcoin without anyone having to custody it for you. These more advanced topics, people will learn,
1255
01:37:01.349 --> 01:37:06.875
and we've seen already the price run up just from this most basic explanation of features of Bitcoin worldwide.
1256
01:37:07.735 --> 01:37:13.335
1257
01:37:14.210 --> 01:37:18.310
the the states and the the pension programs and the the fixed income,
1258
01:37:18.770 --> 01:37:25.965
managers that do put that are the first movers to put Bitcoin on their balance sheet will be the ones to really protect their citizens most.
1259
01:37:27.545 --> 01:37:33.650
If in my opinion, if the United States really wanted to position themselves well, it would be the individual states,
1260
01:37:34.130 --> 01:37:37.090
doing this, taking these measures, and doing it now. But,
1261
01:37:38.210 --> 01:37:44.395
but, yeah, again, like, I agree with Aaron. I don't I don't think that'll happen. I think the federal government will try to I'm
1262
01:37:45.114 --> 01:37:47.215
1263
01:37:47.755 --> 01:37:49.350
at, like, federalization
1264
01:37:49.890 --> 01:37:55.510
really has the wrong incentives and ends up failing. Right? Like, Canada is also federation, and it's like,
1265
01:37:56.245 --> 01:38:13.530
you know, they just keep on consolidating power to the top because that's where the incentives are. Right? That's where the money printer is. Yeah. That's where the responsibility is because they don't wanna they don't wanna take individual responsibility of taking risk. That's right. I mean, like, they don't it's not even some grand conspiracy. People just don't wanna lose elections. It's that simple.
1266
01:38:14.614 --> 01:38:19.114
1267
01:38:19.494 --> 01:38:23.180
apart from, you know, my viral tweet thread that you probably all seen,
1268
01:38:23.820 --> 01:38:24.320
is,
1269
01:38:24.940 --> 01:38:27.600
that, you know, the people who pull the levers of power,
1270
01:38:29.020 --> 01:38:31.680
they also they understand the problem
1271
01:38:32.235 --> 01:38:33.195
as well as we do, I think.
1272
01:38:34.235 --> 01:38:57.145
And I think that they're already buying Bitcoin for themselves or their families or their kids or their grandkids are. And so I I think the the game theory applies to the decision makers too and the people who wanna get reelected too. And I think they're realizing that the voting block is too big to risk coming out against Bitcoin. And I thought it was fascinating that in the senate, we had 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans
1273
01:38:57.770 --> 01:39:02.590
trying to figure out and get it right. And now in the house, 2 Democrats, 1 Republican
1274
01:39:03.130 --> 01:39:05.995
have, you know, started a memo to try to get it right.
1275
01:39:06.875 --> 01:39:09.935
It's like you're you're you're seeing cooperation across the board.
1276
01:39:11.035 --> 01:39:20.000
1277
01:39:20.460 --> 01:39:25.695
Right? They they want this. They want the services. They want none of the responsibility.
1278
01:39:26.315 --> 01:39:27.455
Right? This is, like,
1279
01:39:28.155 --> 01:39:31.455
over a 100 years of of a culture of this. So
1280
01:39:32.020 --> 01:39:32.600
you can't
1281
01:39:33.140 --> 01:39:37.400
it's not like the politicians are not some reflection of of the people. Right?
1282
01:39:38.020 --> 01:39:42.685
And and, you know, if the population wants this and they're doing this to get reelected,
1283
01:39:43.945 --> 01:39:48.045
you know, it's no wonder than the poor and the middle class are the ones who pay for this
1284
01:39:48.699 --> 01:39:51.119
because the people who have more money,
1285
01:39:51.500 --> 01:39:52.639
left or right,
1286
01:39:53.739 --> 01:39:55.679
both of them have enough means
1287
01:39:56.045 --> 01:39:59.505
to at least carve out the loopholes that are needed for them
1288
01:39:59.965 --> 01:40:03.105
to not go through this capture of income.
1289
01:40:09.400 --> 01:40:15.755
1290
01:40:16.135 --> 01:40:21.994
holdings, and they also are not stupid. They understand how much Bitcoin is owned by US residents.
1291
01:40:22.600 --> 01:40:23.100
Coinbase
1292
01:40:23.560 --> 01:40:24.060
owns
1293
01:40:25.000 --> 01:40:26.760
very large or, I mean,
1294
01:40:27.240 --> 01:40:31.260
I would say maybe what what is it? Like, 9 9% of all cryptocurrencies.
1295
01:40:32.185 --> 01:40:35.085
The Grace of Bitcoin Trust has 3, 4% of Bitcoin.
1296
01:40:36.025 --> 01:40:36.525
Altogether,
1297
01:40:37.225 --> 01:40:40.445
US Bitcoin ownership is probably somewhere around 20, 25
1298
01:40:40.780 --> 01:40:42.560
percent of the circulating supply,
1299
01:40:43.100 --> 01:40:45.040
which is very in line with our GDP,
1300
01:40:45.500 --> 01:40:48.720
dominance in the world. So we have about 20% of whatever.
1301
01:40:49.855 --> 01:40:55.635
China is next in line regarding Bitcoin ownership. You know, their GDP is half of ours, and they have
1302
01:40:56.095 --> 01:40:56.595
roughly,
1303
01:40:57.090 --> 01:40:57.750
you know,
1304
01:40:58.290 --> 01:41:13.575
maybe a third of our Bitcoin ownership. So it's not going to change the status quo. I think they're pretty aware that, you know, if Bitcoin goes up in price, the, you know, US residents will benefit. So it's not a major threat. So as long as the treasury gets all the visibility and the privacy,
1305
01:41:14.710 --> 01:41:23.805
you know, killing things that they want, then it's gonna be fine because the US will be wealthy just as as long as much as anyone else if the price goes up. I think if the ownership were were,
1306
01:41:25.165 --> 01:41:44.165
lopsided the other way, if we didn't have very much Bitcoin and it wasn't a legitimate threat, like, if it was, you know, like, MBK was talking about gold ownership and how Russia was able to to dollarize or if China had actually succeeded in acquiring amount of gold that would allow it to get off the dollar standard, that would have been a threat, but it's not the threat at all. I think it's just kind of keeping
1307
01:41:44.705 --> 01:41:49.340
things pretty much as they are. But it's providing individuals the opportunity. It's not a national,
1308
01:41:49.740 --> 01:41:58.225
security threat, but it's providing individuals the opportunity to learn about what's happening on this geopolitical thing. You know, there's this new asset class called Bitcoin,
1309
01:41:58.765 --> 01:42:05.905
and it's not it's very much, you know, being managed by the powers that be, but still can operate in this way that allows you
1310
01:42:06.270 --> 01:42:07.090
your own self
1311
01:42:07.469 --> 01:42:08.750
1312
01:42:09.230 --> 01:42:11.890
one second, MBK. Let me just jump in. Aaron, I mean,
1313
01:42:13.230 --> 01:42:13.730
does
1314
01:42:14.515 --> 01:42:18.535
does, like, that institutional adoption of Bitcoin or that, like, known
1315
01:42:18.995 --> 01:42:22.615
like, you mentioned Grayscale. Grayscale actually holds their Bitcoin with Coinbase.
1316
01:42:24.150 --> 01:42:29.850
So, I mean, if you include Coinbase custody, which most of these trackers don't, like Glassnode or whatnot,
1317
01:42:30.745 --> 01:42:34.445
it's probably closer to around 2,000,000 Bitcoin that they hold.
1318
01:42:36.185 --> 01:42:39.110
And, like, you know, Michael Sailor and and MicroStrategy,
1319
01:42:39.570 --> 01:42:40.790
like, they're holding their
1320
01:42:41.490 --> 01:42:42.790
100,000 Bitcoin,
1321
01:42:44.610 --> 01:42:46.150
with a regulated custodian,
1322
01:42:47.055 --> 01:42:51.795
not Coinbase Custody, but another one of the big players. There's, like, 3 big regulated custodians.
1323
01:42:52.335 --> 01:42:54.435
Is like, that's not really
1324
01:42:57.040 --> 01:42:57.540
that
1325
01:42:58.000 --> 01:43:03.380
that known Bitcoin that is disclosed and held in regulated custodians and is easily
1326
01:43:04.315 --> 01:43:08.975
taxed in any kind of situation and is completely controlled in terms of how it's spent.
1327
01:43:11.390 --> 01:43:13.570
I I feel like we have to be careful about
1328
01:43:14.430 --> 01:43:24.435
combining that with Bitcoin held by actual sovereign Bitcoiners that use their own node and hold their own keys. Would you agree? No. I totally agree with that. I'm just going on a few snapshots.
1329
01:43:25.055 --> 01:43:25.635
1330
01:43:25.935 --> 01:43:34.420
actually just recently, they published their newest snapshot, and they so like you're saying, it's impossible to know who the people individually are, but they can measure
1331
01:43:34.800 --> 01:43:36.500
there were 2 things last summer.
1332
01:43:36.855 --> 01:43:42.235
They measured how much would they estimate was held by service hosted wallets, which is custodians.
1333
01:43:42.775 --> 01:44:00.645
And at that time, summer of last year, it was 25% in the United States. 25 of the Bitcoin was held by custodians within the United States. Now, of course, those custodians could have international customers, but that was where Chainalysis estimated that the Bitcoin was held at that time. And then, last month, they released a report saying that,
1334
01:44:01.320 --> 01:44:04.699
of the payments that are sent on chain, which country,
1335
01:44:05.560 --> 01:44:11.525
could we estimate that those payments are being sent to? So this called addresses estimated to be controlled by users.
1336
01:44:12.225 --> 01:44:16.165
And as of the first half of the year, the United States
1337
01:44:16.790 --> 01:44:19.929
addresses associated with the United States received $450,000,000,000
1338
01:44:21.349 --> 01:44:24.730
in the first half of the year. Next in line was China at a $150,000,000,000.
1339
01:44:25.715 --> 01:44:27.655
After that was the UK of a $130,000,000,000.
1340
01:44:28.675 --> 01:44:35.909
So United States' dominance, if this is a good measure of that, value received by addresses that are known to be associated with the country,
1341
01:44:36.449 --> 01:44:38.309
is over 3 times that of China.
1342
01:44:41.625 --> 01:44:44.844
1343
01:44:45.225 --> 01:44:46.925
You get economic protection
1344
01:44:47.465 --> 01:44:47.965
because
1345
01:44:48.360 --> 01:44:54.300
US doesn't wanna fuck with something that ruins their stock market. Because you're in the stock market, nobody gets reelected.
1346
01:44:54.840 --> 01:44:59.085
Right? So when you do have a lot of larger entities
1347
01:44:59.465 --> 01:45:03.725
starting to hold, and they don't care about privacy whatsoever. Right? So
1348
01:45:05.140 --> 01:45:06.600
you are creating moat
1349
01:45:07.300 --> 01:45:09.320
between you and the state because,
1350
01:45:09.940 --> 01:45:11.160
you know, they will
1351
01:45:11.755 --> 01:45:16.095
be a lot more cautious on the actions that they have against your asset
1352
01:45:16.475 --> 01:45:18.575
if this asset is being held by entities
1353
01:45:19.115 --> 01:45:20.575
that could cause them problems.
1354
01:45:22.860 --> 01:45:28.865
1355
01:45:29.345 --> 01:45:36.245
room for their reporting to be to have holes in it, but they are state sponsored. They're funded by the Department of Homeland Security.
1356
01:45:36.690 --> 01:45:44.950
And it is the first graph on their report, and they only do, like, 2 reports a year. So it's, like, right up the top, number one graphic, and big green,
1357
01:45:45.425 --> 01:45:46.965
colors is United States
1358
01:45:47.344 --> 01:45:47.824
has,
1359
01:45:48.225 --> 01:45:53.045
3 times the amount of Bitcoin as China, pretty much. I mean, in in as much words. So that's just
1360
01:45:53.469 --> 01:46:02.530
going to people in the United States government, supported by Department of Homeland Security, saying, hey, this isn't a big issue. That's that's the message of the report that I see.
1361
01:46:04.094 --> 01:46:10.994
Which whether or not it's true is important to know when you're when you're thinking about their motivations. They're not thinking about it as a national security risk.
1362
01:46:11.500 --> 01:46:25.055
They're thinking about it. Okay. This is something that is in line with what the how the world operates. So now we just need to make sure that we, you know, cover the details. You know, taxes, reporting, blah blah blah. We're not looking to shut it down.
1363
01:46:31.330 --> 01:46:32.949
1364
01:46:33.730 --> 01:46:40.615
on whatever that data is. Right? They don't it's like it's not that they don't care that the data's in inaccurate.
1365
01:46:40.995 --> 01:46:47.150
That's the data that they have. That's the data that they sponsor. So they they will make all their policies based on that.
1366
01:46:58.900 --> 01:46:59.400
1367
01:47:00.580 --> 01:47:01.800
with all that said,
1368
01:47:05.300 --> 01:47:07.239
I I I think I pretty much
1369
01:47:07.565 --> 01:47:08.705
agree with Aaron.
1370
01:47:11.405 --> 01:47:16.625
I don't know where we wanna take this conversation next. I mean, we've we've gone for an hour and 45 minutes.
1371
01:47:19.480 --> 01:47:21.660
I don't really have many topics
1372
01:47:22.280 --> 01:47:23.179
listed here.
1373
01:47:24.360 --> 01:47:26.699
Does anyone here have something they wanna discuss?
1374
01:47:27.945 --> 01:47:29.244
1375
01:47:29.784 --> 01:47:30.284
Blockstream
1376
01:47:30.585 --> 01:47:36.605
creating, mobile mining unit containers to deploy with power companies as load balancing mechanisms.
1377
01:47:38.990 --> 01:47:46.130
1378
01:47:46.865 --> 01:47:50.725
1379
01:47:52.225 --> 01:48:04.570
mining bandwagon, and they're trying to, well, they're saying that it that goes hand in hand with their blockchain satellite service. So there's no one on earth nowhere on earth where they can't put a Bitcoin mine on and have connectivity. Right?
1380
01:48:05.534 --> 01:48:08.514
1381
01:48:08.895 --> 01:48:12.180
the block, so they need to have at least some kind of
1382
01:48:12.500 --> 01:48:13.320
cell connection.
1383
01:48:14.580 --> 01:48:17.640
1384
01:48:18.260 --> 01:48:19.400
satellite uplinks.
1385
01:48:19.715 --> 01:48:22.695
There there are some fancy ones out there. I just don't think it'll be economical.
1386
01:48:27.770 --> 01:48:36.815
1387
01:48:38.474 --> 01:48:43.820
1388
01:48:44.440 --> 01:48:47.340
the the narrative is that it that it actually incentivizes
1389
01:48:47.880 --> 01:48:50.380
renewable resources to be built out at scale
1390
01:48:50.795 --> 01:48:51.295
because,
1391
01:48:52.955 --> 01:48:57.055
the power grid or the company can can put a whole bunch of,
1392
01:48:57.915 --> 01:49:00.095
and let's forget about the fact if we think,
1393
01:49:00.550 --> 01:49:09.855
solar and wind is renewable or not. But that that's the narrative is that they can overbuild the renewable to support the grid, and then the Bitcoin miners can can use that energy,
1394
01:49:10.315 --> 01:49:12.795
when it's not when it's intermittent and also,
1395
01:49:13.275 --> 01:49:15.855
subsidize the the production of that infrastructure.
1396
01:49:24.160 --> 01:49:30.034
1397
01:49:33.375 --> 01:49:33.875
revolutionary.
1398
01:49:36.690 --> 01:49:41.170
It's great for Bitcoin. I think it's great for the world as well. I mean, I I think,
1399
01:49:42.130 --> 01:49:43.989
you know, my co host, Marty Bent,
1400
01:49:44.370 --> 01:49:45.590
on Rabbit Hole Recap
1401
01:49:46.385 --> 01:49:49.284
is is working with Great American Mining, and they've been
1402
01:49:49.585 --> 01:49:52.804
heavily focused in that field. So it's good to see more
1403
01:49:54.350 --> 01:49:57.090
companies kind of jump into that fray.
1404
01:49:58.110 --> 01:49:58.610
But
1405
01:49:59.070 --> 01:50:02.450
it's it's a perfect example of this greater idea that
1406
01:50:03.265 --> 01:50:09.284
there is a huge subset of this industry, particularly the, quote, unquote, crypto industry
1407
01:50:10.145 --> 01:50:11.925
that thinks that proof of work
1408
01:50:12.380 --> 01:50:15.520
is this issue with Bitcoin that needs to be solved
1409
01:50:15.820 --> 01:50:16.800
when, in fact,
1410
01:50:17.340 --> 01:50:19.440
this distributed proof of work is
1411
01:50:20.145 --> 01:50:25.685
really is is the the one of the greatest parts of the innovation. Like, it is absolutely groundbreaking
1412
01:50:26.305 --> 01:50:30.679
that you can take energy from anywhere in the world, and with just an Internet connection,
1413
01:50:31.060 --> 01:50:33.000
you can convert that into money.
1414
01:50:33.940 --> 01:50:34.679
And I
1415
01:50:35.140 --> 01:50:36.520
there's no way
1416
01:50:37.525 --> 01:50:43.785
in my mind that that is priced in. Like, even Bitcoiners underestimate that aspect, but especially
1417
01:50:44.245 --> 01:50:46.505
the greater crypto community, and then
1418
01:50:46.870 --> 01:50:49.370
normies have no fucking idea it's happening.
1419
01:50:50.390 --> 01:51:03.005
1420
01:51:03.385 --> 01:51:06.910
goes along with human flourishing and the flourishing of civilization,
1421
01:51:07.530 --> 01:51:11.550
then think about both utilizing those stranded assets all over the world,
1422
01:51:12.250 --> 01:51:25.135
like we do with with upstream data just on stranded natural gas assets that are otherwise can't get to market even though those wells have already been drilled. It's just sitting there. So like Marty likes to say, we bring we bring the market to the molecule,
1423
01:51:25.470 --> 01:51:28.530
and that gets turned into converted into monetary energy
1424
01:51:29.150 --> 01:51:31.810
and contributes to human flourishing and civilization.
1425
01:51:32.350 --> 01:51:35.915
1426
01:51:37.095 --> 01:51:47.929
doesn't believe in human fellowship. Right? Like, they want less people on earth. They want earth to go back to, you know, like, I don't know, some period never existed.
1427
01:51:48.390 --> 01:51:48.890
Right?
1428
01:51:49.670 --> 01:51:52.684
And this really hits the nail sort of in the head there.
1429
01:51:53.385 --> 01:51:57.324
We are at odds with the people who are not for human flourish
1430
01:51:57.704 --> 01:51:59.324
because you can't have both.
1431
01:52:00.025 --> 01:52:00.525
Right?
1432
01:52:02.630 --> 01:52:04.090
1433
01:52:04.390 --> 01:52:13.745
with the Fiat system. Right? Like, they they think there's no alternative. They think we have to reduce our energy use because it's incompatible with with the feed inflationary system.
1434
01:52:14.045 --> 01:52:17.025
So, hopefully, they see that there is an alternative.
1435
01:52:17.725 --> 01:52:22.440
1436
01:52:23.160 --> 01:52:28.860
geographically stressed energy sources. This is the art this is part of the article that I wrote for Bitcoin Magazine.
1437
01:52:30.025 --> 01:52:31.965
So we talked about how,
1438
01:52:32.345 --> 01:52:32.845
like,
1439
01:52:33.465 --> 01:52:33.965
basically,
1440
01:52:34.585 --> 01:52:40.760
it's kind of like a 4th turning event that, MBK was discussing where we're kind of shifting over to a focus on automation
1441
01:52:41.460 --> 01:52:50.205
and a not maybe not a decrease in jobs, but just a a temporary decrease in availability of employment and a a focus on automation to make things cheaper.
1442
01:52:51.305 --> 01:52:55.485
When when you bring on the fact that Bitcoin is bringing all of this
1443
01:52:56.090 --> 01:52:58.830
kind of it's not new, but it's newly discovered,
1444
01:52:59.290 --> 01:53:01.150
energy sources onto the grid.
1445
01:53:02.330 --> 01:53:04.110
In my mind, it starts to make
1446
01:53:05.325 --> 01:53:05.825
manufacturing,
1447
01:53:07.005 --> 01:53:07.505
exponentially
1448
01:53:07.885 --> 01:53:14.750
even cheaper because we're focusing on on automation, and then we also have almost, like, an excess or a surplus of energy
1449
01:53:15.370 --> 01:53:15.870
availability
1450
01:53:16.250 --> 01:53:18.910
to to, redirect to production and manufacturing.
1451
01:53:20.545 --> 01:53:25.685
And if if this is the case, then the way I see it is that cost of living should,
1452
01:53:26.465 --> 01:53:27.364
in air quotes,
1453
01:53:28.224 --> 01:53:28.724
get
1454
01:53:29.250 --> 01:53:35.430
exponentially cheaper than than what it is right now. Not not necessarily in dollar terms, but in, purchasing power.
1455
01:53:36.290 --> 01:53:40.275
I wonder what everybody in the on the panel thinks about the
1456
01:53:40.575 --> 01:53:44.275
1457
01:53:44.815 --> 01:53:46.435
I met Max through Marty.
1458
01:53:47.990 --> 01:53:51.690
Very interesting because Max actually came in from the energy side first
1459
01:53:52.150 --> 01:54:02.275
1460
01:54:02.895 --> 01:54:04.675
been kind of mind blowing to me,
1461
01:54:05.295 --> 01:54:11.830
for the last, call it, year of my life. So I could basically build my whole career around kind of, you know, energy infrastructure,
1462
01:54:12.290 --> 01:54:13.830
specifically oil field infrastructure,
1463
01:54:14.535 --> 01:54:20.635
and just, like, kind of the intersection between the people that produce energy and then the people that buy and consume energy. And so
1464
01:54:21.015 --> 01:54:24.179
have, like, an energy marketing business. We have a infrastructure business where
1465
01:54:24.480 --> 01:54:34.625
we build infrastructure. So, like, this whole concept of, like, you know, being able to bring the demand to wherever the energy is at is just like an earth shattering, like, career altering thing that just you know?
1466
01:54:35.005 --> 01:54:43.020
When I first found out about it, it was, like, literally pacing around my house, like, in the middle of the night just, like, thinking of all the implications that how it could change things, and it just
1467
01:54:43.640 --> 01:54:45.260
changes everything, really, because
1468
01:54:45.560 --> 01:54:50.780
all energy, the entire energy systems that we have built is really all around
1469
01:54:51.385 --> 01:54:58.685
transportation. Right? It's like, here's the sources and the places that we need to use energy, whether that's settlements with people, whether that's industrial manufacturing,
1470
01:54:59.225 --> 01:55:10.715
you know, whatever it may be, And then you have these different sources that you can generate energy. And so the entire energy logistics game is just, you know, the proximity to market and, like, how you get things to market and then the cost involved
1471
01:55:11.255 --> 01:55:15.995
with getting it there. And so this idea that you can take the highest value use case for energy
1472
01:55:16.375 --> 01:55:20.280
and move that anywhere in the world where you've got the lowest cost energy,
1473
01:55:20.900 --> 01:55:39.530
it just kinda changes everything in a bunch of different ways. And the aspect earlier about using it is like a battery technology. I mean, it makes too much sense. Like, right? Look what's going on with, like, ERCOT and the grid in Texas and, you know, the reality is, like, they just need more base load. Like, you need just more power generation in general, but you're never gonna build it because,
1474
01:55:39.989 --> 01:55:52.355
you know, to build a peaking plant or a facility where you've got excess power all the time, that's the real way to ensure these, like, disasters don't happen where the grid you know, where you're having rolling brownouts or you have these heat waves or these, you know, winter storms.
1475
01:55:52.960 --> 01:56:06.835
If you think about what you could do with Bitcoin mining, I mean, you could literally like, if the state were to embrace it like Texas or somebody and say, hey. Look. We're gonna build this, you know, power generation facility that's in excess of what we need. We're gonna store that energy in the form of a monetary value,
1476
01:56:07.695 --> 01:56:23.375
with Bitcoin. And then when we need it, we can redirect it to grid. I mean, everybody talking about large scale battery applications. It's like, why would you you know, first of all, large scale batteries are probably not gonna work for a lot of reasons, but Bitcoin mining could act as that, you know, basically a way to store energy
1477
01:56:24.074 --> 01:56:27.614
forever. There's no shelf life. You can move it the speed of light,
1478
01:56:28.340 --> 01:56:29.960
anywhere in the world, that value
1479
01:56:30.260 --> 01:56:35.560
directed at the highest value use case for whatever that may be. Like, if it's the state, they could put it towards their budget.
1480
01:56:36.955 --> 01:56:44.095
Just one interesting thing, but, I mean, I could ramble about it for hours. There's just so many implications of what this does to energy,
1481
01:56:44.460 --> 01:57:00.625
and that's just been the part for me that's been just the most exciting thing. And then I've now gone all the way down the the Bitcoin rabbit hole and have learned a bunch about Bitcoin on top of it, but I've come at it from that angle. And, again, it's just like it's the most underrated, in my opinion, and fascinating part of it, but it's probably because I'm biased towards that.
1482
01:57:02.910 --> 01:57:17.245
1483
01:57:18.185 --> 01:57:21.640
building out that base load that otherwise wouldn't wouldn't be built,
1484
01:57:22.020 --> 01:57:25.400
because the miners can pay for that infrastructure. Right? So
1485
01:57:25.780 --> 01:57:37.295
and people are sometimes triggered when when we call it a battery. But like you said, it's it's not a battery to store that electricity. It's really a monetary battery that You should use the you the term Bitcoin can subsidize,
1486
01:57:39.270 --> 01:57:40.410
1487
01:57:41.110 --> 01:57:48.475
Like, that that's that's the key. Right. Yeah. Subsidize. Yeah. Yeah. In the sense that why you talk about that, the commies understand. Energy capture.
1488
01:57:49.015 --> 01:57:51.275
No. The the commies understand subsidization.
1489
01:57:51.655 --> 01:57:54.315
Right? If you're saying that Bitcoin is now subsidizing,
1490
01:57:55.095 --> 01:57:55.835
the electrification
1491
01:57:56.215 --> 01:58:05.070
of a lot of areas that have issue to begin with. Right? This is a big deal now. Now this is this is a capital investment for the people for the people.
1492
01:58:06.055 --> 01:58:10.074
1493
01:58:10.455 --> 01:58:16.019
then we can monetize it and use it to, you know, have some sort of green subsidy or whatever.
1494
01:58:16.480 --> 01:58:18.739
And that is also another positive framing.
1495
01:58:19.360 --> 01:58:23.699
1496
01:58:24.275 --> 01:58:38.090
1497
01:58:38.550 --> 01:59:06.125
But I think the reality is as we progress, you know, we're gonna gravitate towards efficiency, I hope. You know? I think if the if the federal government gets involved, there'll probably be a lack of efficiency. But if, you know, logic and innovation, you know, prevails, then there'll be a move towards more efficient things. And so, for example, like, in the gas markets is what I focus on a lot and natural gas. And so if you're in the field, you know, to get power on the grid, it's very inefficient. I mean, electricity, like, what I have to say is that it's convenient. It's not efficient.
1498
01:59:06.430 --> 01:59:11.730
What I mean by that is it takes, like, 60 to 70% of the energy is just lost converting it from,
1499
01:59:12.030 --> 01:59:23.785
you know, that field, that produces gas. You gotta move it on pipelines. You lose, you know, there's methane that gets lost. You have to burn fuel, get it to a power plant, and you gotta get it on the grid. The estimates show, like, 60 to 70%
1500
01:59:24.330 --> 01:59:43.370
of that energy is just wasted completely just to get your Tesla plugged in. And then, by the way, the Tesla loses 5% of its charge every day just idling. So it's extremely inefficient to electrify everything. But with Bitcoin, just putting Bitcoin mining in a natural gas field, you're now converting that energy at 90 plus percent,
1501
01:59:43.830 --> 01:59:49.195
depending on the pipe, you know, how far from the well it is. If it dried at the wellhead, it could be 99% efficiency. So
1502
01:59:49.675 --> 02:00:02.300
even though you're using maybe hydrocarbons to convert it into Bitcoin, which people will say that's dirty, you're actually, you know, pulling electricity at a much higher clip or that power to much higher clip. And then the comment about it being a battery, I mean, look,
1503
02:00:02.840 --> 02:00:23.550
it's at the end of the day, like, all energy is is a way to it's a means to an end. Right? It's you're gonna convert it into something that has value, and that value in theory is a higher economic case than it would otherwise be for just keeping the energy in the ground or wherever you're you're getting it from. And so if you can convert it into value that never goes away, that in fact goes up over time and that can be stored indefinitely,
1504
02:00:24.135 --> 02:00:48.525
I know we could frame it like a subsidy and that's a maybe a smart way to frame it, but the reality is is that whatever you use the energy for, at the end of the day, you're converting it to value, whether that's electricity, people are buying it at their house, whether that's, you know, whatever it may be, industrial uses, it gets converted to value eventually. And with Bitcoin mining, you can convert it to value right at the source and then harness that value forever and then direct that value to where you wanna direct it. So it's just it's just really powerful.
1505
02:00:50.780 --> 02:00:58.000
1506
02:00:58.485 --> 02:01:00.105
which is beautiful thing to see.
1507
02:01:00.965 --> 02:01:01.465
Exactly.
1508
02:01:05.500 --> 02:01:06.000
1509
02:01:09.020 --> 02:01:17.385
Stoic, do you have any thoughts on how China's or even the individual actors inside of China were able to do this? Do you see that as a,
1510
02:01:18.405 --> 02:01:24.889
you know, obviously, they did that for a while. They were able to, at times, get up to 65 or whatever percent of hash rate.
1511
02:01:25.190 --> 02:01:26.889
They built a tremendous amount of infrastructure,
1512
02:01:27.269 --> 02:01:30.969
a ton of different these of these machines, made a ton of money. But now,
1513
02:01:31.725 --> 02:01:38.180
I mean, in my view, it's preparation for the launch of DSAP in the Olympics February, but maybe you have a different view.
1514
02:01:38.740 --> 02:01:52.545
Do you see that as, like, a cycle of that a country can go through? They kind of maximize the amount of stranded energy that they or money that they can extract in the form of basically stealing from their own natural resources, or do you see that it can continue?
1515
02:01:56.260 --> 02:02:04.280
1516
02:02:04.805 --> 02:02:10.745
mining had less to do with energy use and more to do with, like you say, capital controls and and cracking down,
1517
02:02:11.205 --> 02:02:21.719
to for the introduction of their digital currency. Right? But do you are you asking, like, do you do you think do we think that they can get that hash rate back? Like, I don't think it's ever coming back in my opinion.
1518
02:02:22.925 --> 02:02:26.465
1519
02:02:27.565 --> 02:02:41.889
it's just I think I think I agree with you that it's kind of impossible to know because it's China. They don't say any of the things that are real. They don't report, so there's no filings to check. It would be very interesting, though, to know, and I think you probably would be interested as well,
1520
02:02:42.195 --> 02:02:43.415
you know, how much
1521
02:02:43.795 --> 02:02:44.295
of,
1522
02:02:45.075 --> 02:02:57.090
the energy that was produced at these hydroelectric plants or these various other things that were off peak or, you know, basically carbon capture type of activities that they were able to get Bitcoin out. And to have that as a
1523
02:02:57.710 --> 02:03:00.645
report to say, hey. You know, we can capture
1524
02:03:01.365 --> 02:03:09.465
I mean, obviously, every miner can act in their own interest and they can make money however they wanna make it. But if they had the data to say, hey. We know from very large scale,
1525
02:03:10.170 --> 02:03:18.190
operation of capturing stranded energy that we can monetize based on this x amount of dollars or an investment. We can capture x amount of dollars
1526
02:03:18.695 --> 02:03:21.995
as Bitcoin mined the value of it at today's prices,
1527
02:03:22.375 --> 02:03:27.835
which would equate to a savings of, you know, why. That would be interesting data, I think, to have.
1528
02:03:32.679 --> 02:03:36.139
1529
02:03:41.315 --> 02:04:12.775
just gonna say it's interesting to see how fast the hash rate's bouncing back now up to 120 now. And and our next difficulty adjustments looking like it's gonna be at least 15% here. So we're it's coming back hard right now, whether that's infrastructure coming online in Texas and Wyoming and North America and all and Alberta up here with us or or what's happening, but it's gonna be crazy this time next year considering how much hash rates getting deployed with all these public company as well. Like, you see guys like Marathon who who are looking to bump up from from 4 x hashes right now that have over 13 x hashes deployed by this time next year.
1530
02:04:13.815 --> 02:04:17.034
Difficulty in hash rates gonna be pretty crazy by next year, I think.
1531
02:04:17.655 --> 02:04:21.034
1532
02:04:21.510 --> 02:04:25.369
unequivocally bullish that we have this hash returning to the network,
1533
02:04:25.989 --> 02:04:28.330
whether that's new hardware or not. Having
1534
02:04:28.710 --> 02:04:35.195
floating hash that's unaccounted for is horrible for Bitcoin's security model, so I'm very relieved to see
1535
02:04:36.215 --> 02:04:37.355
it enter the network.
1536
02:04:38.135 --> 02:04:39.514
I would push back
1537
02:04:39.960 --> 02:04:42.380
that to me and maybe this is
1538
02:04:43.800 --> 02:04:46.780
a unpopular opinion on Bitcoin Twitter. To me,
1539
02:04:47.625 --> 02:04:52.285
seeing companies like Marathon, these large public American companies try and
1540
02:04:52.985 --> 02:04:54.125
increase their hash,
1541
02:04:54.630 --> 02:05:03.610
it becomes an existential threat to Bitcoin. Like, I'd prefer if we don't see large amounts of hash held by, like, a few publicly traded American companies.
1542
02:05:04.265 --> 02:05:06.365
1543
02:05:07.065 --> 02:05:14.260
The problem is, like, you know, if we if we respect the the spirit of Bitcoin, which is Bitcoin is your enemy's money. Right?
1544
02:05:15.360 --> 02:05:16.160
It's inevitable
1545
02:05:16.640 --> 02:05:20.820
On Jake's side. That large entities will attempt to do those things. So
1546
02:05:21.605 --> 02:05:23.705
the question is, how do we handle
1547
02:05:24.645 --> 02:05:26.105
it? It's not a question
1548
02:05:26.485 --> 02:05:33.550
of, like they they will do it. Right? That is the game theory. The game theory is for these entities to seek,
1549
02:05:34.090 --> 02:05:35.150
Bitcoin solutions,
1550
02:05:35.530 --> 02:05:37.389
mining, holding, or whatever it is.
1551
02:05:38.285 --> 02:05:44.385
So so I like that little MBK. I'll handle what MBK wants to see. Are you wrestling with Bigfoot? Is that what I'm hearing?
1552
02:05:45.805 --> 02:05:47.105
I'm feeding my kids.
1553
02:05:48.420 --> 02:05:53.480
1554
02:05:54.180 --> 02:05:57.160
I'm not gonna actively try and stop them from
1555
02:05:57.765 --> 02:05:58.985
acquiring Hash.
1556
02:05:59.285 --> 02:06:06.665
My hope is that right. My hope is my hope is that Hash gets distributed sufficiently, which it seems to be doing.
1557
02:06:07.130 --> 02:06:11.230
I just would push back on cheering the idea that it's bullish for Bitcoin
1558
02:06:11.530 --> 02:06:12.670
if they do
1559
02:06:13.130 --> 02:06:16.670
1560
02:06:17.014 --> 02:06:18.474
see, their competitors
1561
02:06:19.335 --> 02:06:26.190
that being either other companies, other nation states, whatever reasons they are, right, they will see them,
1562
02:06:26.890 --> 02:06:30.750
accumulating Bitcoin, accumulating Hash Power, and you'll see that as a threat.
1563
02:06:31.130 --> 02:06:33.310
And they will try to counter that
1564
02:06:34.325 --> 02:06:37.705
with their own call let's call it their own Bitcoin,
1565
02:06:38.405 --> 02:06:38.905
power,
1566
02:06:39.285 --> 02:06:41.625
right, if that's hash rate or accumulation.
1567
02:06:42.085 --> 02:06:43.140
So so, like,
1568
02:06:43.460 --> 02:06:44.820
having an entity that is,
1569
02:06:47.060 --> 02:06:50.600
we don't know their intentions. It's impossible to know their intentions, but
1570
02:06:51.335 --> 02:06:53.355
their intentions seem to be just economic.
1571
02:06:54.614 --> 02:06:58.395
Right? If there if there is an act referring to get rich on Bitcoin,
1572
02:06:58.940 --> 02:07:02.560
especially a publicly traded company that's a little bit more clear about
1573
02:07:03.020 --> 02:07:06.560
things, that's a good thing. That's a least worst entity
1574
02:07:07.180 --> 02:07:07.920
to start
1575
02:07:08.405 --> 02:07:09.864
becoming a a super
1576
02:07:10.565 --> 02:07:11.465
economic node.
1577
02:07:12.245 --> 02:07:15.225
Right? So I'd rather have them do it than say,
1578
02:07:15.605 --> 02:07:16.825
I don't know, MediaTek,
1579
02:07:17.310 --> 02:07:19.090
which is essentially a Chinese
1580
02:07:19.470 --> 02:07:23.970
chipmaker that is an arm of the of the Chinese state. Right?
1581
02:07:24.670 --> 02:07:26.770
So so so now maybe because,
1582
02:07:27.315 --> 02:07:27.815
MicroStrategy
1583
02:07:28.115 --> 02:07:39.360
is accumulating so much Bitcoin, their direct competitors might try to do it, or other indirect competitors that are large companies will try to do the same either against them or with them. So so it's,
1584
02:07:39.820 --> 02:07:41.520
it's the least of the worst,
1585
02:07:42.699 --> 02:07:48.595
1586
02:07:49.215 --> 02:07:49.715
can,
1587
02:07:50.575 --> 02:07:53.715
not be co opted by US government pressures?
1588
02:07:55.040 --> 02:08:00.500
1589
02:08:01.255 --> 02:08:05.355
So, like, they're all captured. Exactly. But but they
1590
02:08:05.655 --> 02:08:08.235
but they can only be coerced to a certain extent.
1591
02:08:08.830 --> 02:08:18.130
Right? Because if the coercion makes their bottom line go down, shareholders have a problem. If shareholders have a problem, the stock market tanks. Right?
1592
02:08:18.895 --> 02:08:20.035
So there is
1593
02:08:20.415 --> 02:08:21.475
a a a fine equilibrium,
1594
02:08:22.175 --> 02:08:35.470
right, of how much force the government can apply on its stock market. I mean, look what a z has been doing to the Chinese stock market. It's an absolute cluster fuck. He's destroying all the wealth that was created in China
1595
02:08:35.815 --> 02:08:39.035
because he's sort of freaking out on how to stay in power.
1596
02:08:39.495 --> 02:08:42.235
And and it's not unheard of for for a Chinese
1597
02:08:42.695 --> 02:08:43.515
large emperor
1598
02:08:44.070 --> 02:08:46.810
to to do the same. It is in their history
1599
02:08:47.590 --> 02:08:50.490
to to shoot themselves in the foot over this kind of stuff.
1600
02:08:51.864 --> 02:09:01.005
1601
02:09:01.489 --> 02:09:04.790
Many of them private, you know, money or just individuals, entrepreneurs,
1602
02:09:05.489 --> 02:09:09.110
and they can actually have a huge impact on the amount of production
1603
02:09:09.585 --> 02:09:12.244
of energy. And you've got kind of the super majors,
1604
02:09:12.945 --> 02:09:25.010
like, Exons and of the world and Chevron's and these big companies, BP. And, you know, what you'll see is you'll see these cycles where kinda you know, they'll go through periods where the super majors look like they control everything. And, you know, there is times when,
1605
02:09:25.375 --> 02:09:49.060
they they can have huge impact on, like, the price of the of oil and gas because of the their activities. But then you also look at the amount of red tape and bureaucracy and overhead that come involved with these large public companies, and it's almost like they're their own worst enemies in a lot of ways. And the small and independent guys can be more nimble and can do more than these bigger guys, and they're handicapped by these public markets, and they're handicapped by these rules and regulations. And so in a lot of ways,
1606
02:09:50.180 --> 02:10:00.045
there's some things that they do. The advocacy for the industry can be a positive. Other times, like, with this ESG movement, like, they're getting attacked. Like, Exxon's board got activist investors on it,
1607
02:10:00.425 --> 02:10:24.125
and they're losing value for their shareholders. And the big winners in that are gonna be the independents. They can play by their own rules, and they can work within the framework. So I don't know that it's necessarily I'm arguing that it's bullish, but I think it's again, like you were saying, it's probably gonna be natural, and you're gonna have different people that are different types of players. And I think it's probably just the inevitable evolution, it seems like, at least. But I see some parallels there maybe, through our industry.
1608
02:10:24.870 --> 02:10:50.619
1609
02:11:00.585 --> 02:11:10.360
at at the end of the day, I mean, the great thing is that is that the miners don't control the network. Right? It comes down to the individual nodes. And so as long as we keep those decentralized, I think we're good. Right?
1610
02:11:16.165 --> 02:11:21.190
1611
02:11:23.650 --> 02:11:25.830
I don't expect large amounts of hash.
1612
02:11:26.930 --> 02:11:33.355
I I don't I don't expect, for instance I mean, if we're gonna talk theoretically, I don't expect, for instance, over 50% of hash to be,
1613
02:11:35.014 --> 02:11:35.915
held by
1614
02:11:36.340 --> 02:11:38.440
large American publicly traded companies.
1615
02:11:39.380 --> 02:11:39.880
1616
02:11:40.340 --> 02:11:45.240
I Matt, like, I just like to to always remind people when we're talking about 50%
1617
02:11:46.405 --> 02:11:47.864
and and and hashing,
1618
02:11:48.885 --> 02:11:51.385
like, it just it takes a lot more than 50%
1619
02:11:51.765 --> 02:11:54.825
to cause any problems to Bitcoin, and there is also coordination.
1620
02:11:56.450 --> 02:12:00.950
So it's just there might be, like, new people listening to this. Like,
1621
02:12:01.490 --> 02:12:05.565
you know, it's something like, you can never have the conversation of 51% attack
1622
02:12:06.184 --> 02:12:14.380
without ever, like, sort of mentioning that it takes a lot more than that and the level of coordination, and it's not sustainable either. Right?
1623
02:12:14.920 --> 02:12:27.085
So it it is honestly unconcerning. You can almost look at Bitcoin right now as over secured. Yeah. We have way more capacity than we need. Maybe our age is showing, but to me, the real fear was when Bitmain controlled so much.
1624
02:12:27.490 --> 02:12:32.470
1625
02:12:33.010 --> 02:12:34.310
1626
02:12:34.835 --> 02:12:42.695
you know, it's in the interest of an actor that has overcapacity of mining to shut the fuck up about heavy overcapacity. Right? Probably anonymously mine,
1627
02:12:43.460 --> 02:12:45.000
differently with the overcapacity.
1628
02:12:45.620 --> 02:12:47.800
Because as soon as you hint
1629
02:12:48.100 --> 02:12:57.305
or posture that you have too much capacity, you undermine your own bags. So it's all built into the game theory of Bitcoin. We don't have to worry about this stuff. And,
1630
02:12:57.845 --> 02:13:01.180
honestly, 51% attack at this stage, at this
1631
02:13:01.640 --> 02:13:08.055
size, it is not something that concerns us anymore, not to the degree that, you know, back in the day, it could have killed us.
1632
02:13:08.455 --> 02:13:12.315
And even when Bitmain had all that capacity, it was still nonconcerning.
1633
02:13:12.935 --> 02:13:18.370
If we go back even further, I can't remember the the the mining pool. This must have been 2013,
1634
02:13:18.990 --> 02:13:19.490
maybe,
1635
02:13:19.870 --> 02:13:21.090
2012, maybe.
1636
02:13:21.390 --> 02:13:36.350
There was a pool that amassed g hash. Oh, it was g hash. Right? That had that amassed over I think it was close to 60% of the money. They they kicked out people from their pool not to hurt their bad debt. Also double spent gambling
1637
02:13:36.810 --> 02:13:37.870
1638
02:13:38.250 --> 02:13:39.390
1639
02:13:40.489 --> 02:13:44.385
Very different world, very different capacity, very different distribution of
1640
02:13:45.005 --> 02:13:45.505
Bitcoin.
1641
02:13:46.125 --> 02:13:47.824
1642
02:13:49.485 --> 02:13:54.250
I mean, I think we've hit the the natural endpoint of of this this topic.
1643
02:13:55.750 --> 02:13:58.170
We've been going 2 hours and 15 minutes.
1644
02:13:58.790 --> 02:14:00.090
1645
02:14:01.045 --> 02:14:06.744
1646
02:14:07.364 --> 02:14:08.905
anything you'd like to say?
1647
02:14:10.350 --> 02:14:11.970
1648
02:14:13.310 --> 02:14:17.075
No. I mean, unless you guys wanna keep running, we can hit a different topic.
1649
02:14:17.715 --> 02:14:18.915
You know, I've just been,
1650
02:14:19.395 --> 02:14:23.255
soaking in all the discussion from the minors and the game theory.
1651
02:14:24.489 --> 02:14:26.909
It's been, it's been quite a good rip.
1652
02:14:27.770 --> 02:14:30.270
1653
02:14:31.290 --> 02:14:33.535
1654
02:14:34.095 --> 02:14:35.935
you know, predictions for what's gonna
1655
02:14:36.575 --> 02:14:38.675
how things are gonna shake out in El Salvador.
1656
02:14:40.095 --> 02:14:44.980
They've got their launch of their new governmental wallet, Chivo, on September
1657
02:14:45.360 --> 02:14:45.860
7th.
1658
02:14:46.480 --> 02:14:46.980
And,
1659
02:14:47.520 --> 02:14:51.700
every citizen is receiving something like, what, $30 worth of Bitcoin?
1660
02:14:56.965 --> 02:15:00.345
1661
02:15:00.880 --> 02:15:04.980
the sovereign debt if they decide to go forward with it, which they probably will.
1662
02:15:05.840 --> 02:15:09.284
I mean, what what can we say? I mean, it's it is what it is.
1663
02:15:09.744 --> 02:15:11.125
This is a $25,000,000,000
1664
02:15:11.744 --> 02:15:15.284
GDP country that's trying to roll out Bitcoin as a legal tender
1665
02:15:15.665 --> 02:15:16.804
within 3 months.
1666
02:15:18.020 --> 02:15:22.760
They have a wallet, which we have no idea how it operates that's gonna somehow
1667
02:15:23.700 --> 02:15:24.200
allow
1668
02:15:24.580 --> 02:15:25.080
totally,
1669
02:15:26.420 --> 02:15:27.160
fee less,
1670
02:15:28.085 --> 02:15:29.545
absolutely zero commission,
1671
02:15:29.845 --> 02:15:30.585
no spread,
1672
02:15:31.605 --> 02:15:32.645
settlement between,
1673
02:15:34.085 --> 02:15:35.760
dollars and Bitcoin inexplicably.
1674
02:15:36.300 --> 02:15:38.400
We have no idea how it's happening. It's just,
1675
02:15:40.300 --> 02:15:46.535
it's what can what can what can we say? It's apparently, it's gonna happen. Happen. We're we're all gonna be amazed and astounded as far as I can tell.
1676
02:15:48.515 --> 02:15:51.895
1677
02:15:53.410 --> 02:16:02.954
on September 7th when it becomes legal tender, so we shall see how that plays out. I hope it's not too much of a clusterfuck. I know, a lot of private companies and,
1678
02:16:04.054 --> 02:16:08.074
open source projects are trying to bridge the divide so that that
1679
02:16:08.430 --> 02:16:11.010
Salvadorians are ready when that happens. But,
1680
02:16:11.790 --> 02:16:13.090
as far as I'm hearing,
1681
02:16:13.870 --> 02:16:14.850
from my sources,
1682
02:16:16.005 --> 02:16:19.145
the government wallet is way far behind, and
1683
02:16:19.525 --> 02:16:20.985
there's a lot of issues there.
1684
02:16:22.005 --> 02:16:27.690
1685
02:16:29.670 --> 02:16:33.689
and, you know, maintain being able to maintain those, banking relationships,
1686
02:16:34.485 --> 02:16:36.024
to facilitate that all.
1687
02:16:36.885 --> 02:16:45.520
You know, otherwise, I'd feel like, you know, the rest of the wallet shouldn't be so crazy. It's gonna be custodial lightning wallet. Right? The government, is gonna have their own
1688
02:16:45.980 --> 02:16:49.340
centralized node. Of course, it's probably gonna be subject to,
1689
02:16:50.476 --> 02:16:52.175
you know, all sorts of surveillance
1690
02:16:52.476 --> 02:16:53.056
and monitoring.
1691
02:16:54.315 --> 02:16:59.695
But, yeah, that that other part of the puzzle of the liquidity and and the swapping of those dollars seamlessly,
1692
02:17:01.100 --> 02:17:07.075
remains the biggest question mark to me. I I mean, I I feel like at one point, I heard that, Strike was gonna help,
1693
02:17:08.035 --> 02:17:10.535
with some of the conversion process, but,
1694
02:17:11.476 --> 02:17:13.255
beyond that, I I really don't know.
1695
02:17:13.635 --> 02:17:14.535
1696
02:17:15.580 --> 02:17:16.960