Retail’s Mid-Year Report Card With Ethan Chernofsky of Placer.ai | Ask An Expert

Foreign.

Welcome to the latest edition of the omnitalk Retail Ask An Expert series.

I'm your host, Chris Walton, and Today's webinar on LinkedIn just may be one of my favorite things that we do each and every year.

Ethan, what is this?

Is this our third time doing this?

I think it's at least our third time, right?

At least Time number three.

So this is when we're really gonna.

Really gonna perfect it, right?

Third time's the charm, right?

I think that's the phrase.

I don't know.

I lost track already.

Well, Ethan and I are going to do our mid year assessment of the state of retail, or actually Ethan is.

And of course, many of you probably know Ethan already, but in case you don't, Ethan Chernofsky is the Chief Marketing Officer at Placer AI.

And whenever Ethan is on with omnitalk, he and I take a very different and deliberate approach.

On purpose.

Everything Ethan is about to share with me and with you and I have never seen before.

I have not even talked about it with him in advance.

So my reactions are all going to be live and in the moment, and my questions back to Ethan are going to be the same.

So.

So, Ethan, what.

How would you sum up what you're about to share with me and with our audience?

Retail superlatives.

Retail awards at the halfway point.

Okay, so it's like, it's like, it's like retail's version of the Oscars here, right?

It's.

It's the beginning of July and we're like, we're, we've, we've got six.

Six months behind us, and we're going to take a look back and say, who's won the first six months of 2026?

Is that, is that, is that a fair comparison, Ethan?

It's the only, the only.

I think by next year people will be wearing tuxedos and we'll be doing this in person.

Okay.

Okay, I, I'm, I'm down with that.

Definitely not wearing a tuxedo where I am currently, because it is really, really hot.

But all right, to that, to that point, we're here to celebrate and also maybe throw a little shade, depending on what Ethan shares with me.

You know, that's kind of customary if you're watching a podcast with me.

But before we get into our discussion, just a quick reminder.

For those watching the early release of this interview live with us on LinkedIn, feel free to ask your questions of Ethan or of me at any time through the chat session window, which you can find to the right hand side of your screen if you're on desktop or down below if you're on mobile.

All right, Ethan, before we get started, tell us about Placer AI and what it does and how it gives you all this great data and information that is the genesis for what you're going to share with us today.

So happy you asked that, Chris.

So Placer is a location analytics company.

What does that mean?

People vote with their feet.

We show you how they vote across the United States every single day.

We do that by analyzing a panel of tens of millions of mobile devices very critically.

This is all aggregate data that has been stripped of identifiers like maids.

So we are gdpr, CCPA compliant.

We then analyze that with machine learning and AI algorithms, and we present it in a wealth of different reports within our platform on everything from categorization, visit trends, the customer journey, true trade areas, and a whole lot more.

All right, well, let's not hold everyone in suspense any longer.

I know I'm at the edge of my seat.

Ethan, what is our first award that you are handing out today?

So the first award we're going to start with, pretty down the middle, just the most impressive retail.

There's a handful to hit the list, and they all hit the list kind of for different reasons for us.

So the first one is.

Is.

Is five Below and five Below hit it.

Because we were looking back at the data, very often you'll see significant visit growth.

And that significant visit growth comes because of major expansions.

Right?

So it's predictable, like you're going to open more stores, you're going to reach more people.

Very rarely do we see the combination of visit growth that five Below has seen in visits and visits per venue and the consistency over time.

So on average visit growth monthly, average year over year in 2022 for 5 below was just over 12%.

In 23 was almost 16%.

24 Dipped a little bit to 14%.

25, 12% This year so far, it's been 23.5% monthly average growth year over year.

At the same time, the business per venue growth is strong.

So each location is doing well.

And so we have 19 growth in May, as an example, year over year, visits per venue was up 16%.

So this isn't just expansions.

It's that everywhere they expand or almost everywhere is doing well too.

And it speaks to this really powerful model, a really good offering and the ability to effectively act on that offering, to deliver on that promise.

So five Below is, is.

Is a huge one for us.

Another One that we don't often call out and we certainly don't call that enough is Ross right.

When we talk about off price, we, and rightfully so, we give the flowers to Marshall, we give the flowers to TJ Maxx and others in that space.

We don't talk about Ross enough.

And Ross has been leading the pack both in terms of visits and visits per venue in this super strong category.

So actually the past couple of years or especially this year, we've seen a little bit more kind of sometimes visit dips a little, sometimes visit growth like it's leveling off for these high performance sectors and these top brands within it.

But Ross has just been crushing it from a visit perspective.

Visits up January through May, almost 17% year over year.

The other two we have to call out is one is Costco just because the success is so significant and we're going to show a slide for, for a different superlative that will include Costco, but the ability to just always be so good is, is super worthy of a call out.

And the last one is Walmart and the Walmart one, I, specifically for me is a big one because I, I just don't think I realized how great Walmart was overall.

And it kind of the epiphany for me was last year was looking at things sometimes you see like smaller visit growth and you're like, but that's because it's such massive visits over such an extended period of time.

And I think when you combine what Walmart's doing from an innovation perspective, the portfolio of brands that they have underneath it, and this is really just looking at the Walmart flagship, the success is absolutely unbelievable.

And this is especially because it's a superstore category.

This is fascinating that when you look at overall retail visits, that superstore category, its share is growing, so it's a console, it's strength within a consolidating space.

Really impressive, really amazing.

And I think they are the flag bearer of that sector.

Yeah, 100%.

So yeah.

So what you're saying there is basically like, you know, don't, don't be deceived by the two and a half number here relative to everyone else because the base is so, so large and Walmart has been gaining share, you know, across particularly from the grocers primarily as, as they are spending less time there and going to the supercenter.

But yeah, Ethan, I don't, I don't, I don't think I have any, any thoughts on that.

This thing, this seems, this seems like the perfect lineup of who I would have picked going in.

So, you know, I don't have any negative comments to say on this.

I think just positive commendations for who you chose here.

But the part that I wanted to single in on is why you chose these.

Right.

Because I think if I read between the lines or I heard what you were saying too, in addition to the traffic data that you're seeing here, you also think these four retailers, particularly, because I know you and I have talked about this on shows in the past, they just know what they do really well and they do it over and over again.

The exception probably being Walmart.

Walmart's probably extensive themselves a little bit into new arenas, but the other three really get their value proposition and they get the basic blocking and tackling of retail done really well consistently time and time again.

Yeah, I agree.

I also think there's an element of it's hard to do well in retail.

It's really hard to do well in retail over time.

And it's really hard to stand out from a crowd where your competitors are also great.

So when we think about, like the volatility that Walmart's competitors have seen and when you think about how consistent they've been, that's unbelievably impressive.

We think about Ross standing out amidst a category that has some of the best retailers, period.

That's really impressive.

And five below the same.

Like, think about who they're competing with for those visits.

These are not small regional players.

These are the biggest or expanding tremendously.

And so to have this type of success at this scale in this type of competitive land, type of competitive landscape, I don't think we, and I mean placer, I'm not going to put on anyone else.

I don't think we do a good enough job of recognizing.

We always are excited by the blips.

Like the thing that performed well when you didn't necessarily expect it or the zig when everyone else was zagging.

I think when we were thinking about this category, it was who has been amazing consistently and over time and not in an easy circumstance.

Yeah, and the other point too is like, I mean, you could, you could look at this slide and be like, ah, yeah, it's correlated to macroeconomic indicators and whatnot.

But the key point here is that all of these retailers are also gaining share in their respective spaces.

So they must be capitalizing on those macroeconomic conditions in a different way or in a better way even than their competitive set.

You know, it's a really important point too, by the way.

Because I think people look at.

Oh, you're.

Is it just macroeconomics?

And there is going to be pops when there is a macroeconomic headwind, tailwind, whatever it may be.

With that said, the thing we're really looking for is not how high your peak is, is when you get that peak.

Have you done enough to turn those people into.

To grab a percentage of their visitation that you wouldn't have had pre.

So the fact that there is a head tailwind.

Excuse me.

That gives you an opportunity.

Fantastic.

But if you can hold on share, it doesn't have to be as many visits as before, but if you can hold on part of that share, you've taken advantage of a tailwind.

We have seen so many retailers.

Look, the whole pull forward of demand narrative a few years ago is because it's not easy to grab tremendous demand and then maintain it.

Right.

It's harder.

And so if you can pull in these visitors who are coming for a whole variety of reasons and convince them via experience, value, etc.

That you're worth more visits over time, that's just great retail.

That's not macroeconomics.

Right.

Well said.

Well said, man.

All right, what's.

What's the second award we're handing out today?

I know you're gonna love this one.

I got no issues with the first one.

So what's the second one?

It's most improved.

Okay.

And I have.

I. I know, I know.

I was so excited.

All right, both.

Both of these are a little bit like, I don't know.

We'll see.

All right, convince me.

All right, let's go.

We, you know, we ran this deep analysis recently.

We're gonna do a full report in the future of Starbucks in the back to Starbucks era.

Yeah.

Right.

What has happened.

And essentially what you see is decline right away, which makes sense.

It's a continuation of the trend.

A stabilization period and then this period of consistent and ongoing growth from Q3, 2025 through Q1 2026, and now into Q2 2026.

That's not random.

That's great strategy.

Right.

This is a.

A great chain that recognized that there's two things that set it apart from one, the third place concept that they invented and to their ability to focus on convenience with their scale.

I can't stress this enough.

Those two things are in conflict.

100% To do those well at the same time.

Yeah.

So unbelievably difficult, even if it's the right path.

Right.

So if this had taken another six months or a year, it would have been legitimate.

It didn't.

We're already seeing the turnaround and we're seeing an emphasis, like sometimes when things are a little bit lower, we, we're talking about declines.

We're not talking about 30% declines in visitation, we're talking about a couple of percentage points.

But when we see that turnaround, it's because they looked at their kind of array of assets and they said here are the things we do really well and we're going to keep on doing them.

Here are the things we need to add to the mix and you see the impact of it.

And so I, I am a huge believer in this strategy.

I think that you're willing to see long term success.

I think we've done analyses in the past of where the expansion opportunity still is for Starbucks and there's still areas where there's massive expansion opportunity and those are areas that are seeing a good influx from a migration perspective.

So there's even more than there was when we did this analysis a few years ago.

So I'm a big believer in it.

So, Ethan.

Yeah.

Before we go on the next one, because I know we're going to spend time on the next one and for those that are listening and not watching, he's got Starbucks and Target on here.

So it's, you know, why this one's already a hot topic on the slide.

So just to go into the Starbucks thing, because I think I agree with you and I think what you, I thought, I loved how you said that too, is like threading the needle on the balance between being the third place and then deciding how to keep the convenience element alive is really important.

And what the format strategy is around that is also very critically important.

And you said something there that I thought was interesting too.

You said you've done some analysis on where the further growth opportunity lies for Starbucks.

We talked about this on a Ben Miller and I actually talked about this on a podcast a couple weeks ago when Starbucks said they have room for as many as 5 to 10,000 more stores, you know, in the U.S. i'm curious, like from your analysis, where, where have you seen that opportunity potentially pop up for Starbucks?

A lot of it was in the Rust Belt States.

A lot of it was in the areas where you're seeing those positive migration trends.

And again, this is several years ago.

So this is before a lot of those migration trends really took.

What we were looking at is visits and locations compared to where there were empty visits and where there were locations that were a certain distance from a location and so we found that there is a huge opportunity.

I don't know if it's 5 to 10,000 locations, I don't know how many it is in the end, but it's not small.

There is still growth potential just from a location perspective, let alone the fact that, I mean, I really, we've talked about this many times, like, I'm still a big believer in the third place.

And I think if you look at their competitive set, like the seven brews of Dutch Rows, really awesome companies that are expanding tremendously because they were regionally oriented and now they're kind of going.

They're both pretty.

A lot of these players are really focused on convenience, drive through, get in, get out.

Great experience.

But getting get out, no one's really coming after the third place.

And they're obviously local players, more kind of regional operators, but might be the only one that's really looking to combine that tremendous scale with that experiential element.

And I think if they can continue to execute on it, it's a huge opportunity.

Yeah, I agree with you.

And I think both things can be true depending on the formats that you choose to deploy too.

And that's where I think Nickel to his credit, has done a good job of stepping back and saying, let's reset the table on that and look at what are the right new store formats we want to put into market.

Where do we want to put them into market?

And let's fuel growth that way and decide ultimately in the long, longer run, is it the third place across the board?

Is it the third place in some locations?

Is it convenience and pickup in other locations?

But let's be smart about it and start with a clean fresh slate and go after it.

And I think to the point on the slide.

Yeah, those are impressive results.

I mean, those are year over year traffic gains.

You know, when you, when you look at the numbers there.

Yeah.

And it's in a space that's doing well, obviously.

But I also, I agree with you.

I don't think it's going to be.

Every location is going to be oriented towards people sitting there and spending a lot of time.

But your suburban locations, maybe you should think differently about them than your urban locations.

And maybe, by the way, maybe it's the flip side, but I think the willingness to say our goal is to have those elements and we're going to optimize them per location, I think that's what you want to hear.

That's good strategy.

Right, Right.

That's the fundamental point.

Yeah, that's very well Said, yep.

All right.

The second one, which I expect no pushback from whatsoever is, is Target.

And I think the big reason is I, I am, you know, obviously I have read the thoughts of certain voices of what the problems are in the long term.

Challenges with Target.

Target went through a period where I think it was, it was a period of 80% of weeks over.

I think it was a 55 week period.

Saw visits down year over year.

Now there is a myriad of reasons if you ask this person who doesn't know it as well as others but has, has their, their, their perspective.

Yeah, that was because the fundamentals were off.

Right.

It just.

There was something in the store that wasn't working well.

Right.

Like I am a huge Target shopper.

The amount of times I walked into a location and the store was either messy, they didn't have products, there wasn't enough people to help.

Was it was, it was visible and noticeable and like other.

I think Target stands were kind of saying a very similar story.

We've seen that turnaround.

Do I think this is exact?

No.

There was clearly softer comps when you think about what was going on in Q1, but it's continued.

You're talking about a 20 week period from the end of January through the end of middle of June where all of the visits have been up year over year.

I think there is an increased focus and you're seeing action from Target leadership to focus on the fundamentals, get more people in store, make the experience better.

Make sure you have product in stock that you don't have empty shelves.

Make sure you have the right products in stock, make sure people there to help.

Like one of the things.

I think about this a lot.

There's a data point, I'm sure I've mentioned it here before, but that there's a 6% basket size increase when you're greeted at the front door.

I don't think it's because people walk into a store and someone says hi.

They're like, well I gotta buy stuff now.

No, it's because if someone greets you and says hi to you, how are you?

How can I help you?

You're more likely to ask the question and find the thing you were looking for.

That's why you need good service in stores.

It's not for fun, it's not to make people feel good.

It might do those things.

It's to make the retail experience more effective.

And I think Target's refocusing there.

I don't think obviously they're softer comps, but I think the how extended this streak has been of visit increases is powerful and I think it speaks to a brand or a retailer that is clearly on the improvement track and has the potential to take even further steps forward.

Yeah, I think on this one, I don't think it's going to surprise you.

I think I disagree with you on this one because I think the comps are pretty easy, especially when I look at it in comparison to what's on the Starbucks chart.

The other point of this too is what data is not on the chart and what contextual evidence is out there that supports the point one versus the other.

And the point I bring up is nickel, I believe started in September of 2024.

And so he's got a lot longer of a Runway to make hay on this.

And you're starting to see the proof in the pudding in terms of not just anniversary in the comp, but exceeding the comp that you did before.

Whereas the new CEO that target, Fidelke, he's.

I mean, he didn't even start to technically start until February.

I think he probably, you know, kind of below the covers took over like in September when they made the announcement.

But that's just not enough time for a recovery to seed itself to the degree to which we're hopeful or are talking about it.

And so that's the one caveat I would have here where they probably wouldn't make my most improved list yet.

I think they are angled towards the right things, particularly in that in store experience.

But I think those are, those are where I still have some misgivings about, you know, saying, you know, targets back.

I think, I think the proof's going to be in the pudding, really.

Probably next Q1 is really where we're going to be able to make the call on that.

But, you know, it's at least, it's at least a sign in the right direction.

I mean, if it wasn't this, we'd be saying the exact opposite thing.

But I think it's probably a little too early to call.

I think this is a great tease for our in person black tie event next year.

Okay.

Yeah, I like that.

Yeah.

Or.

Or the end of year awards too.

That we do too.

Right.

So we're the only Oscars that has two award shows.

Ethan, why can you do it just one?

Right.

Why not?

Amen.

Okay.

Ready?

Chris, this is a classic Oscar.

It's the biggest foundational trend award.

All right.

Okay.

And by this we mean, look, there's a lot of trends that you see that are interesting.

They are cool.

They indicate something powerful, but they're limited.

There are things that you think, we think you see that aren't just small changes, they're a change with massive ripples.

Right.

The waves that are going to be felt are going to be felt across this.

And this is I think a version of something we probably talked about two or three years ago, which is the recovery of the mall.

So we've been tracking this a lot.

We've always been very bullish, especially on top tier malls.

There are things that we expected to see, we expected to see recoveries, we expected the suburbs to kind of push that.

We've seen strong visit rates.

What we didn't expect was the speed at which it would have other impacts that we thought would be more future looking.

So let's take a step back.

When we saw business up again, we basically said it's well because of improved tenant mix, a greater diversification of the types of tenants, a really heavy emphasis on place making and that was what was going to drive people there.

People moving to the suburbs needing a place to have this urban esque experiences.

Awesome.

I don't think what we saw coming this fast was younger generations coming and spending time, right?

So not just kind of Gen Z audiences, younger millennial audiences coming and spending time in the mall.

We expected that from like the exodus from the cities folks.

We're like a couple of kids needing a thing to do on the weekends.

But these are single families, these are not, these are just marries people without a family yet going to the mall as a place to hang out, as a place to spend time, that is really powerful.

Not just because that they're coming there and now they can spend more dollars for the folks who are already there, but it's who else is going to chase and who else is going to look to take advantage of these spaces.

So if you have a mall location that is now thinking more about how do I have kind of these experiential offerings, these events, things that are not all the time kind of pop ups and the like.

Like we were at the Aventura mall a summer ago when they had a Nintendo experience for an entire, you know, I think it was like two weeks, right?

This Nintendo pop up, super cool, not a classic thing you expect to see in the mall.

It widens who will come.

It widens the types of people that are going to come in and widens the type of brands we're going to want to engage.

And I think as we see the decline especially of digitally natives opening large amounts of stores, this type of experiential offering that can be kind of pop up and happen some of the time, not all the time, is really powerful.

And I think it offers an even bigger level to the mall recovery that we thought.

Even though we were pretty bullish and optimistic, we thought this was a couple of years away at best.

And so this has been very exciting.

Yeah.

This is the one that just keeps.

It just.

It keeps making me scratch my head.

Like there's something fundamentally going on here, you know, And I like.

I like the acronym here, too.

The bft.

You know, this is the bft, the big foundational trend.

Because, like, this shouldn't be happening right now.

Right, Ethan?

Because, like, discretionary categories, which are what def.

You know, predominantly dominate the mall, you know, should be the ones most impacted by the macroeconomic forces that are out there.

And yet we're seeing malls still do as well as this slide indicates.

So.

So.

Yep.

Why is that?

Like, it's just hard for me to understand.

It's just.

Because it's not just retail.

Right.

It's the.

It's the desire of the younger generations to spend time and money on experiences.

Yes.

And to spend time around people.

Okay.

So the idea.

The social aspect of shopping.

To spend time.

Yeah.

And I. I don't even think the mall, like.

And I. I give so much credit to the mall owners that lead these top channels because, again, I think they saw something.

Right.

A decade ago.

More.

Yeah.

They did.

Changes.

They did.

I don't even think they saw this.

That if we create these greats, it's.

It's like something else in a different podcast.

So, like, forgive me.

It's like a field of dreams moment.

They built it, and now people are coming, and it's not all the people they expected.

And it's.

And I think that is where this is really exciting because it has a.

A bigger draw than you would have hoped for even initially.

Why do you say that?

It's not the people they would have expected.

Like, what, What, What?

Why are you saying that malls are in the suburbs?

Malls are like, all right, you want to convince me that a family who just moved from New York City who now lives in Jersey is going to go to, you know, the mall in the Garden State Plaza.

Sure.

They're going to spend hours on a.

On a Sunday, on whatever afternoon day it is or a Saturday afternoon, they're going to spend their time there.

Yeah.

100.

I buy it.

Totally get it.

Makes perfect sense.

The idea that a young single is saying, you know what?

Where am I going to Go hang out.

Go hang out at the mall.

Go meet my friends there.

Like, that's.

That's really cool.

The Gen Z who's in the suburbs, again, it makes sense.

But that middle group also deciding this is the place they want to spend time.

It's again, it's not just the retail.

It's the fact that there's good food there, there's good experiences, and it's a place to kind of spend time, have this day out.

I think it's really exciting and powerful.

Right?

Right.

Okay.

Yeah.

Wow.

All right.

Love it.

Love it, man.

All right, what do we got next?

This is another classic Oscars category.

Most difficult trend to pin down.

And this is one that ttpd.

All right.

Yeah, this is.

This is.

You mentioned our good friend Ben Miller, so we can.

We can give him his second shout out.

Ben Miller was doing something with us, and we were talking a lot about GLP1s.

Okay.

And we were talking a lot about why.

I like where this is going.

Okay.

And I was like, all right.

Ben turned me on to this idea.

I'm going to go dig in.

And I spent a lot of time digging in.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I looked at fitness.

Here's the thing.

I can't tell if it's a chicken or the egg.

Fitness started.

The GLP ones came afterwards.

Fitness was already in a wave, but the week's clearly continuing.

Is there an impact?

I'm sure.

Can I tell you what it is?

No.

I looked at health and wellness chains, like people who are focused on those types of products.

Again, the Trend started before GLP1.

So do I think GLP1's a part of it?

Yes, of course.

Can't see it.

Can't see it.

Okay.

Grocery, the same.

The fresh format.

I don't know.

Chicken or egg.

And so I. I think it's really difficult to make the argument that GLP1s are not having a big impact.

I think they most likely are, but I can't tell you how or why or where.

I think there are correlations, but from a visit perspective, from how people are moving, where they're visiting, where they're going, I don't think we see it yet.

And this I. I still conceptually, fundamentally agree with it.

I think it's a big, big deal.

But the fact that I can't find it gives me a moment of pause where I'm like, is there something else going on that GLP1s are a part of or ones driving something very significant.

And it might be in the transaction data.

It might be in other areas you can get that viewpoint, but I don't think you're getting it here.

Is it because it's hard to strip it out too, and to isolate it with all the economic factors that are driving which, which retailers are getting frequented in which trade areas as well.

And is, is that a whole complicating factor here as you try to piece this apart?

I gotta think it is, right?

It is.

I just think most of the places where you'd expect to find that correlation, the timing doesn't line up.

The timing starts.

Yeah.

And so I think we're seeing this health and wellness wave.

I think you add a GLP one layer to it.

I buy this idea, and Ben talked about this, talks about this brilliantly, of which product people are buying and therefore where they're going.

But if the traditional grocery stores are starting to bring those products into the mix, then it's not really going to change their patterns.

But then it's just a really complex idea to understand though.

Clearly people think it's changing their patterns.

You see the survey data and what it, what it shows, but one that I can't, we can't really pin down yet.

Right, right.

Well, even as you're talking, even as you're saying that out loud, like too, the parts that are going through my head is like, you know, should we expect to see less visits to the grocery store or should we just expect to see different visits to a grocery store?

Do we just expect to see less basket sizes?

Or, you know, are we, or are we buying the same amount or same with the gym, like if I'm on a GLP1, do I go to the gym as much or do I not go to the gym or do I go to the gym more?

I don't, I don't know the answers to that.

I've seen it both ways.

That's.

So that's basically what you're saying here is like, it's too early to call.

We don't know it's too early to call.

And I don't, I don't know, I don't know what the after effects are meaning.

Like it's, it's there.

We don't really know what it is yet.

And I've seen people say it's like, oh, gyms are clearly being impacted.

I'm like, I don't see it.

It's, it's changing how, which, which grocery stores we go to.

I don't know that I see it.

And it could be that everyone adjusted to this, but I don't think it's that cut and dry.

It's kind of like Victor Wembanyama, you know, it's this freak of nature.

You don't know what it is.

Starts off a little, you know, first year.

Okay.

And then, boom.

Explodes, you know, could be like that.

You know, it's hard to know.

I'm trying to.

Trying to put some type of analogy on it.

I was trying to think of a movie, but Victor was the best I could come up with.

Victor was the best you could come up with?

Yeah.

Is this when GLP1s tell us that they're in our heads and then we find out that we actually don't need them anymore?

Yeah.

Oh, solid.

Solid.

From a Knicks.

You see who I was voting for?

Yeah.

Oh, I know which way you were rolling.

You.

I know which way you were roll.

And congrats, by the way.

Congrats.

Thank you.

Thank you.

It was a big one.

All right, what do we got?

All right.

The.

The.

Didn't see this coming.

I got two for you.

Two.

Okay.

One.

Okay.

Okay.

Traditional grocery.

We have been ragged on traditional, not ragged.

But we've been noting that fresh format and value have seen much significant, much better metrics.

Right.

A lot of better visits.

And by the way, that's still held like, the visits are up.

You know, the visits per location.

Traditional is doing a really nice job.

That is really interesting, the fact that you see that increase as these other players are increasing locations.

They're kind of holding on to those visits for location as a segment, I think it's super powerful.

It doesn't change the underlying challenge that they face in the sense that people are going to more locations, and therefore the baskets are decreasing from a number of item size.

So the battle is slightly different.

But I think anyone who's over counting out traditional grocers, I would say beware.

Like, there is ample opportunity for this segment to regrab spaces or widen their offerings so they can happen to new spaces.

I think that was really interesting when you were looking at two trends.

The edges of retail, which is to quote my friend Garrett Kaner from Dunhumby, Quality LED or savings led were really kind of dominating.

That's a super interesting data point from the first half of this year, especially, by the way, with macroeconomic headwinds, where you'd expect value to savings led to even take an even further side.

The second one, just real quick on that one for my.

I mean, I think traditional ghosts are the Rocky Balboa retail.

To draw an analogy.

I mean, they just keep Taking punches and have taken punches and punches and figure out a way to keep on.

Keep on, keep on in the fight, keep on fighting.

So, yeah, 100%.

But it's across the board.

Like, there's times you look at it, you're like, all right, I get Hebb.

Heb does something that no one else can do.

Right?

Just do.

There's few HBs out there.

Yeah, yeah, Publix too, maybe.

But they're all doing it.

Like the Croakers, the Albertsons.

Like, it's really.

It's really impressive.

The second one was, was she.

And I find Shein fascinating.

Oh, wow.

Okay.

I wasn't expecting to go here.

She was fascinating.

Like, we looked at she and Pop up several years ago and they were one of the most interesting examples of these wildly successful pop ups.

And so when the Everlane acquisition was announced, we were, we were like, our interest was peaked because we're like, here's a retailer that is.

They're super smart and savvy.

I don't think they do things random.

There was an idea that was pushed out that they're going to buy some of the credibility that Everlane had to kind of offset concerns people.

Like, I don't know that I think it's that big of a deal.

Again, I might be wrong.

I think the far bigger deal is who is the audience.

Shein's trying to.

Trying to expand and reach other people.

And by the way, it's an off price move, right?

Off price in the middle of the pandemic?

One of the most interesting things we ever did is we worked with us with a survey group.

We did a survey of people who are visiting off price for the first time post pandemic.

And one of the things we found was the highest income bracket was most likely to have tried off price for the first time, and they were the most likely to want to go back.

So it wasn't the.

It wasn't like just a cost thing.

It was like, oh, this is really fun.

We enjoy this.

I think she's taking a similar page.

I think they're like, how do we grab some of these people, pull them into our world?

We have things that are cheaper, but we might.

We can then move up with that.

But we just bring people in.

And I think the cool, exciting Everlane mix and who they're attracting is a really important part of that.

Yeah, that's a really good point.

Like, I hadn't thought about that.

And you know, as I stepped back and was thinking about like, what are you going to Share with me today before we join this call.

Like, I was like, yeah, this one.

This one didn't hit my radar screen at all.

But yeah, it was.

It was a very interesting announcement when this went down.

Yeah.

And it speaks to.

It speaks to like, like we're saying at the outset with the side of the four winners.

You know, the four.

The.

The.

The four.

You know, retailers have been doing super well this first six months a year.

It's about figuring out how to talk to people in the given niche in which you're trying to operate in and extending yourself, you know, into new areas as well.

But doing it with the core of what you do well each and every day.

Yeah.

100.

And then I got.

We'll do these ones quick because I got two.

Okay.

I cut this down.

I had like 20.

How many more do we have?

We only have two more, but we have two more.

Okay.

Too much fun with this one.

Yeah.

Wow.

This is fun.

I'm having a blast.

Yeah.

We'll do these quick sectors to watch.

I don't think there's anything crazy here.

Okay.

Really blown away by coffee.

I think the expansions.

There's something happening where it's like these.

This space is hot.

Right?

There's.

It does feel like Starbucks.

Yeah.

Dutch Bros. 7.

There's so many others that are doing awesome.

They're expanding effectively.

They're finding locations.

People are really getting into it.

They're going to lots of different types of locations.

Yeah, it's.

It's a wave.

And I think great players.

It's like a lot of great players all at once.

Take the NBA analogy.

Like, the NBA is just better than it was 10 years ago.

There's just more great players.

I think that's happening in coffee.

Okay, nice.

I like that.

That's a good analogy too.

I love that.

Yeah, I appreciate that.

Fitness2Fitness, I think, is more of like a tailwind.

I think people care about fitness more than ever.

I think we have.

That is one of the things that got triggered in that post pandemic environment of like, we gotta be healthier.

Almost every sub segment.

Any way you want to slice and dice this, everyone's doing well.

If you're oriented towards kind of like yoga and specialty kind of classes, you're doing well.

If you're kind of on the low end, you're doing well.

If you're on the higher end and you have all these all inclusive packages, you're doing well too.

It is a great time to be in fitness.

I don't think that's Going anywhere again, growth on growth on growth is, is insane.

This amount of consistency over this amount of time and the last one is, and this speaks to the point we're making super short.

And then we put Walmart in that category, Target in that category.

We have Dollar General in that category, Costco, the membership clubs, they are expanding their overall visit share compared to all of retail.

But when you compare them to just grocery, the segment that again six, seven years ago we were told they were going to kill, the visit shares stayed incredibly flat.

And that tells a really powerful story of groceries sectors hold.

Again this, I like the Rocky Balboa example because I don't think it's going to be, oh my God, it's going to go from where it is today to 70% of the overall visit share.

But I think it's going to hold on to its space and I think it is, it is something that is going to be part of the mix.

We need to accept it.

They need to figure out how do they expand their reach or how do they maximize you to visit.

But groceries performance over the last seven, eight years is something to behold, especially considering how pessimistic so many were about what its prospects were.

Yeah.

Although the one caveat though which I think is an important caveat, which I know you'll agree with, is this is just visit data.

Right.

And so if you look at the share of the online grocery business, the online grocery business share has decidedly gone the other way towards the superstore.

So the big question, and particularly because of Walmart and also the advent of Amazon, getting into same day delivery.

And so the question then becomes, you know, how long can Rocky Balboa take those many punches and cuts to the face over the long run when they don't have that volume coming through their doors anymore?

And that's the big question that I think none of us know the answer to yet, but we've got to keep an eye on.

I agree, you do have to keep an eye on it.

I'll go back to the basketball analogy.

If you are, if you are a team, you build around the strengths of your players.

You don't try to copy someone else's system.

Right.

Grocery has strengths that you go there, you go there often you're close, you have this array of products, you have fresh really well, there's certain elements you don't want to buy online.

Lean into those strengths, build around those strengths.

Right?

Yep.

Get to table stakes on what the customer expects for you from an online standpoint and get there as quick as you can.

Right?

Amen.

Last one.

Most interesting data point.

Now there's two here.

I'm going to start with the second one first because I think it's the.

It's probably the coolest, but I like the other one better.

Okay.

And it's the.

This is the line at how.

Oh yeah, gas prices impacted visits to BJ's, Costco and SAM's club's gas stations.

Yeah.

It is unreal.

Yeah.

You're just like, prices are up.

I know exactly where I'm going.

There was crazy lines.

I don't care.

The insane level of association that consumers clearly have in terms of value with those players from a gas perspective, a retail perspective is incredible.

It's what we talk about of like the long term impact of short term wins.

When you are able to win these moments, right.

Aren't just winning them today, you are winning them.

Whenever that consumer, whether it's on a personal level or on a macro level, is feeling the heat, they are turning to you.

And it is an association that goes far beyond gas, but it's a massive win.

And we're talking about why are these players doing so well.

It's because of moments like this or moments like this play a significant role in that success.

100%.

Last one.

I have never mentioned on any webinar, on any podcast ever.

It's Dairy Queen.

Dairy Queen.

You've never mentioned Dairy Queen ever.

I've never mentioned Dairy Queen.

I'm shocked.

Okay.

All right.

Here's what shocked me about Dairy Queen.

Dairy Queen.

Now anyone knows the ice cream business.

Ice cream business peaks in the summer.

Right.

Very highly correlated with weather.

Right.

Chris is hot right now.

He's gonna go get an ice cream afterwards.

Oh, yeah.

If you look at their.

I had a colleague who showed me, oh, look at.

They have a huge day on National Ice Cream Day.

That's awesome.

Let's look at it over a couple of years.

But we found that National Ice Cream Day is not the biggest day for Dairy Queen.

Even though it's right in the peak of the summer, the biggest day comes in March.

The classic day for getting ice cream.

Why you ask?

Oh, I'll tell you.

It's because it's free scoop day.

This is what I love.

This is a re not retailer dining chain.

This is a dining chain that says, all right, it's the winter.

I'm not going to get amazing traffic.

Right.

How do I pique people's interest?

How do I pick people's interest close enough to my high season that this isn't something that will, like, start of.

The season, it looks like.

Yeah, exactly.

How do I play this perfect?

How do I maybe even kick off the season, like, get people excited about ice cream again?

So what do they do?

They find that perfect date, they have the offering, they bring in the visits, and they reap the benefits.

And this is, to me, the.

The genius of retail and restaurants.

And when people launch things and the control that we sometimes give to macroeconomic factors matter.

Seasonality.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

The retailer has.

The retailer, the dining chain, whoever.

You have more power than you realize to dictate how these, how we operate.

And obviously giving away something free is great.

It has a bigger impact than I think.

We sometimes make it seem like it does.

And it shows the power that great thinking and great strategy can have in these spaces.

Yeah, that's a great point.

It reminds me of the anecdote I said when I was running lawn and patio at Target.

My boss used to say, you know, he used to make fun of all the retailers that would like, say, you know, it was too hot or it was too cold this year.

The weather was never right in their earnings reports.

And he's like, the weather's not right for anyone in their earnings report.

It's a total cop out.

And so, like, your point is, right?

Like, it's about doing things that are really just meaningful to your customers at the end of the day and being good merchants on it.

And so, yeah, if you're going to get in front of the season on free scoop day, get in front of the season.

You know, you're going to sell gas at a discount.

That creates those long term.

That creates a long term hold on your customer.

Do it, you know, but you got to find what those things are and they're all.

This is the other point that I just thought about too, in a conversation I was having earlier today.

Ethan, they're different every year.

You got to constantly evolve them.

You can't let them go stale.

And I think that's also, you know, some of what we see traditionally in retail is that we just do the same things over and over again, hoping for a different result.

But you got to keep pushing the envelope from a merchandising standpoint.

I agree.

You want to see ideas.

I feel like we don't give enough credit.

Obviously, if it's a stupid idea, how dare you.

But if the idea makes sense and it works amazing.

But if the idea makes sense, doesn't work still, like, good, that's going to take you to the next great idea.

I want to see more of an emphasis on, like, rewarding and getting excited by great strategy.

And that's why I got into retail, too, because, like, if it doesn't work, just don't do it next year.

Like, as long as you don't do something stupid, like, just don't do something stupid.

But you have the freedom to try a lot of different things, and if they don't work, just don't do them again.

That's the way it works.

Amen.

Amen.

Chris.

Dude, that was great.

That was fun.

That was really fun.

Well, hey, if people want to get in touch with you, learn more about you, tap into your data, what's the best way for them to do that?

Ethan the best way to do it is to go to Placer AI, try the free version of our platform.

The other great thing to try is you can always reach out to me, right?

I'm EthanLacer AI.

Or you can find me on LinkedIn at my.

My real name, Ethan Chernofsky.

This isn't an alias.

And yeah, it was.

I mean, I blast doing this.

Thanks everyone for joining.

I hope you guys tune in next time as well.

Yeah, right.

Well, it's an annual.

It's become an annual tradition.

Hopefully we'll keep.

Keep it in annual tradition.

And on behalf of Ethan and myself, I just want to say thank you to Ella Sirjord for producing today's webinar as well.

We hope you all enjoyed it, especially those watching live and asking your questions.

And for those listening in later, we hope you enjoyed it as well.

And on behalf of all of us here at omnitalk, as always, be careful out there.