Placer.ai's Ethan Chernofsky Reveals 2024 Retail Superlative Awards & Surprising Insights | Ask An Expert

Welcome to the latest edition of the Omnitalk Retail Ask An Expert series.

I'm your host, Chris Walton.

And I'm Ann Mazinga.

And we are the founders of omnitalk, the fast growing retail media outlet that is all about the companies, the people and the technologies that are coming together to shape the future of retail.

Or as we like to say here at omnitalk, the media organization that focuses on tomorrow, today and our next guest.

I don't, I don't think he needs an introduction in any way, shape or form.

No, everybody knows him.

Yes.

Or should.

If they don't, they should.

They should.

Anyone in our circles definitely knows this gentleman that I'm about to introduce.

And I think we could say that he has now been on our show more than anyone.

I haven't verified that, but I'm pretty sure that's true because our relationship goes back now, I believe it or not, I think six, five or six years at least.

So I am pleased to introduce Placer AI's SVP of Marketing, Ethan Chernofsky.

Ethan, welcome to Omnitalk.

Thanks for.

Thanks for having me.

I've decided that next time I'm just going to interrupt when you guys introduce yourself.

So it'll be like, I'm Chris.

I'm Ann.

I'm just going to jump right in and be like.

And it's Ethan.

I'm Ethan.

And I'm Ethan.

Yes, it's me, Ethan.

Yeah, yeah.

It's a Mia.

Ethan.

Yeah.

So, so, so, Ethan.

So for those of you that have seen Ethan on our asking expert in the past, you'll know that we actually have no idea what Ethan is going to prepare for us.

We, Ann and I, see what Ethan brings to the table and we are reacting to it in live time, as are you, as you're seeing the content that he's prepared for us.

And today he asked us to do something very special and very unique.

Ethan wants to hand out Placer AI's 2024 Retail Superlative Awards.

And like we said, I have no idea what direction this is going to take.

I have no idea what awards he's going to hand out.

This could get ugly.

It could get fun.

It could get great.

I'm really looking forward to it.

Hopefully it's going to be great entertainment for everyone and very thought provoking as well.

Before we get into the discussion with Ethan, though, I will just remind all of you who are joining us today for this crazy ride with Ethan.

You can ask Ethan and the team at Placer any questions that you Might have in the chat session window to the right of your screen.

Plop those in there, and we'll try to get to all of them throughout our discussion.

Okay, Ethan, before we get started, you've joked about this in the past.

Chris and I might be able to give this overview.

But for those who are joining us for the first time, what is Placer, and what is it about the data that you collect that makes it such a useful tool in providing insights into the topic at hand today?

And I'm so happy you asked that question.

I didn't really see it coming.

But Placer is a location analytics company that means people vote with their feet.

We show you how they vote across the United States every single day.

We do that by analyzing a panel of tens of millions of mobile devices and utilizing machine learning and AI algorithms on top to make estimations of retail visits across the country.

Very critically.

This is all aggregate data that has been stripped of identifiers like maids.

So we are GDPR and CCPA compliant.

We then show that off in a wealth of different reports within our platform and everything from the visitor journey, true trade areas, visit trends, and a whole lot more.

Ethan, I want you to do a CROCS collaboration that says people vote with their feet.

Can we, like, figure out some way to get, like, Placer like, things?

I don't know, some shoe collaboration?

Maybe not Crocs, but I know that they're open to just about any collab, so I think that should be something that at nrf, we're getting Placer, something that says people vote with their feet.

Because I love the bar has been set for next year.

Okay.

And that seemed like a slight dig to crocs.

You're like, don't collab with anybody.

Well, I don't.

I don't mean that in a bad way.

I'm just saying, like, you know, that they're open to partnerships, and they could probably come up with a really cool, like, product that a lot of the young INS would be into.

I mean.

Yes.

This is why I'm not on your.

Session on omnitalk called that's a Croc, where you talk about your least favorite thing that you're hearing that month.

Sponsored by Crocs.

I mean, I'm down.

Yeah, you're here for this.

Free consulting all day.

All right, well, let's get.

Let's get to the program.

Let's get to why we're all here.

Ethan, please hand out the first award of today so it looks like it's most likely to succeed.

Parentheses Forever.

Is that right?

What the heck does that mean?

Okay, so when we were thinking of superlatives, I went back to my yearbook and, like, tried to figure out which ones actually apply.

And so one of them was most likely to succeed, which is a great yearbook superlative.

And I think the.

The winner for us, and we have to put it in that parentheses of forever for the reason I'm going to explain is Costco.

Right.

I think when you look back at 2024, there was the solidification of a pattern that we were really impressed by and in some ways, kind of blown away by.

And I think it's kind of like Hail to the King moment for us.

When you think about Costco, not only do they have consistent visit growth, not only do they see that over time, we know that they're able to drive kind of large baskets.

We know that they've been.

They've proven capable of adapting kind of no matter what the situation is.

So people are making more visits, fewer visits, fewer visits per individual, more people coming.

They kind of succeed no matter what.

But I think the big thing that we saw this year that kind of put it over the top is like, hey, this is the retailer that we were kind of most impressed by is this shift of millennials and younger audiences coming into the Costco mix.

So we think about, like, migration patterns, people moving into the suburbs, that clearly that audience shift created an opportunity.

But what was fascinating is in a lot of cases, we saw retailers move along with their audiences or retail or audiences move and then kind of seek out the closest comp to the.

To the retailers they had been going to in more urban environments.

But with Costco, everyone just flocks there, because if you have space in your house, if you are pursuing value, if you're pursuing product quality, if you're pursuing experience, like, Costco seems to check every box for every consumer group.

And that's why this kind of succeed forever piece is so critical, because they've essentially proven that they are not tied to a specific audience.

They are going to continue to evolve, and audiences are going to find them because what they bring to the table is so unique and powerful.

So, Ethan, I got to ask you because.

And you know, like we said, we're doing this on the spot.

So I don't know what data you have at your fingertips or what data you've looked at in preparation for this, but are these patterns something you're seeing across the warehouse club industry?

Like, is BJ Sam, Are they seeing similar type movements across the generations?

That's question Number one, and then two, how does Sam's Club fit into this?

Because I think the forever question or the forever parentheses is the one that I don't want to speak for.

And, but I might take umbrage with here because I think Sam's Club is kind of lurking in the shadows here, ready to pounce on Costco's opportunity or there, or to take or to kick Costco off the pedestal, so to speak.

So those are my two questions.

Okay, so the answer is, is one, yes, all of the warehouse players are kind of that those membership clubs are seeing similar versions of success.

But I don't think you can strip away the kind of longevity from the Costco piece.

So Sam's Club had some ups and downs, obviously doing tremendously well.

BJ's was not doing as well pre pandemic saw this big surge because of the pandemic and kind of has ridden that wave.

I think just the longevity of Costco bears kind of note also.

There's an element to Costco about the way they spread into new kind of verticals, new offerings that is super noteworthy.

Like the idea that Costco has like a.

You rent cars through them, you book travel, you get your kind of hearing aid checked.

Like, that is a level of trust in a brand that doesn't really make sense in the retail environment.

And they're so good that it kind of sets them apart.

For me, though, certainly those other.

Those other players are great.

I will say that there was.

There were some other brands we were throwing around.

We were having this conversation.

So one was like Trader Joe's, I think, has done this brilliant job.

And we see fascinating metrics about Trader Joe's, including the willingness to drive farther, to spend, to literally, like go out of your way to make them a part of your grocery mix.

Really impressed with Dollar General this year.

I think when we've seen challenges in the value lane, Dollar General has been amongst the more resilient players within it.

The kind of heavier investment in pop shelf has been super impressive for US brands like HomeGoods and like Lifetime on the fitness side, also super impressive.

But for us right now, we did a post earlier this year, we said if we had to do NFL comparisons for, for retailers, the Costco is the Chiefs, like, they have won a bunch of Super Bowls.

They're the power ranking.

They're number one.

Number one on the power ranking right now.

All right, all right.

What do you have next, Ethan?

Segment of the year.

Oh, now.

Now we're in award territory, but segment of the year is Fitness.

And I think, I think there's a few reasons why I can't shake the decline narrative that was so prominent a few years ago where we're like, oh, that's it, we're never going to gyms again.

Right.

Also we have to remember that even when the sector bounced back, everyone's like, well, oh, that's because Planet Fitness and these value oriented chains are really cheap and so they're kind of tapping into that potential.

Totally true.

But this year we've seen a massive recovery even in the kind of more high end chains, more visits per venue, significant growth.

So the fact that it's across the board is super significant.

So it's this, it's the lasting ness of it.

Like there's a stability to this trend of growth on growth.

It's widespread.

So it's happening kind of across these different, these different subsegments within fitness.

And I think that speaks to the power of it and the ability to succeed no matter what the customer is looking for.

So for customers that are like, hey, I want a peloton in my house, I want to do Soul Cycle a couple of times a week and I want Planet Fitness amazing.

I want to spend more on the gym.

I'm going to go to Lifetime, I'm going to go there every day because I'm not going to spend on other things.

Great.

They're taken care of.

So I think this segment has really grown into its own and driven this increased wave that is lasting several years after that initial peak.

Yeah, Ethan, I'd be really curious to get even more into the data, like looking at things like, like Lifetime really moving towards this, like not just a fitness concept but a place that's got a, you know, a work component, they've got childcare, they're really kind of designed.

Their whole theme was like we want to be the like country club experience, not just so you're spending more time there than just for fitness.

So I'd be curious either this time if you have that data to support like which brands are really strongest here or you know, if impacted things or if there's been things that have impacted it.

Like a lifetime that's opened, say at a shopping mall destination or something like that, like if some of these things have changed, you know, the growth in this area or impacted the growth in this segment.

Yeah, I mean broad strokes, it's, it's what you're talking about.

It's the players that are on that higher end of the spectrum are winning based off of repeat consumer visitation.

So More visits per venue.

Whereas the value chain is benefiting off the idea that, hey, I can be part of the mix and still succeed.

And for us, that also shows a real rationality to the decision making, like it makes sense.

So you think it's more lasting because the consumer is making a very clear choice of, hey, I'm going to do a value gym because I want to make it part of a wider mix.

I'm going to choose a more expensive gym and I'm going to make that my core place.

And I think chains in general, across the board that really know who they are and what they bring to their audience are those that succeed most.

And this is a sign for us that these players really have a sense of who they are and what they bring to the table.

So.

So, Ethan, going back to the, to the first award, based on some of the data you shared, I'm curious because this, this, this segment of the year, it kind of flies in the face of the macroeconomic, you know, conditions, right?

You know, high inflation, people cutting back on their spend on certain things.

But yet here the fitness industry is, you know, for all intents and purposes is still getting that spend.

So are you seeing that spend from all demographics, from all age demographics, all income demographics, or is it weighted one direction over another?

I think thus far, when we've done these analyses and these comparisons now, granted to do it really well, you do need to look in each region and understand the differences in each space.

But overall, again, broad strokes, it's fairly across the board.

And I think that's the interesting.

What's so effective about the sector is these brands are puzzle pieces and they're fitting within each individual's ideal fitness mix.

And so the idea that I can be more value oriented via certain chains, I can look for this more holistic country club experience via other chains.

It's creating homes for lots of different segments.

I think so long as expansions and growth is handled intelligently and not, we don't see it overdone.

So if we had to put a flip side of this, we had a skew negative.

I would say that the dollar store segment was probably would be our flip side of segment of the year.

Just because they were riding this wave and then seeing this kind of come down.

And a lot of that is just because too rapid expansion, not a clear sense of like where are we going and why are we going to those places.

And I think so as long as this space avoids that, they're going to see this continued success.

Right?

So it's Interesting.

So it's kind of similar to what we've heard around the travel, that travel and fitness are becoming kind of necessities for people and things that people still want to spend money on and they want to find their, their cutback lanes through other.

Other means or other vehicles.

That's.

That's really interesting.

All right, what's number three?

What's the third award you're handing out?

This is the favorite data point of the year.

Oh, my God.

It's a tie.

You're the only one giving this award.

You're the only one giving this award.

Data point of the year.

This is, this is.

I'm kind of giving this award to.

To the data itself and because I don't think the data itself ever gets to win the award.

And there's two, but for two different reasons.

The one.

Okay, the one with the map is visits alongside the full solar eclipse that took place in April.

And the reason we love this data point so much is look how beautifully you see that rise in visits compared to exactly where the path of the eclipse was.

It's just like a stunning example of data visualization.

But also when we kind of look at retailers or restaurant groups within the space to see how some of those really leaned into the success, like Warby Parker, you know, offering those free.

See the eclipse glasses, Krispy Kreme, a specific kind of donut, and the lift and visits that came from it.

Something that we really love.

The second, and this is this, this is where if I had to like leave someone off the stage, I would still err that this is my favorite is the return in visits for home furnishings and consumer electronics.

And here is why.

If you look at conference board consumer confidence index that was re.

That was put out just recently, they saw the biggest month over month jump since March of 2021 and the best situation of consumer confidence since January of this year.

Why is this interesting?

Because we have been looking at consumer electronics and home furnishings as an early indicator for consumer certainty is what we call it.

We don't call it consumer confidence returning.

And what we've said is these are big purchases and they're purchases that can very often be delayed.

And as a result, if we see the visits returning there, we're getting a sense the consumer is getting more comfortable with larger purchases.

And so that as an early indicator and then seeing consumer confidence come back shortly thereafter for us made this one of our favorites because we do think some of these behavioral patterns do give us an insight into the where the consumer is at.

Even A little bit before the consumer recognizes that they're there.

Interesting.

And which one?

Which one?

If you had to pick, which one of these two would you pick?

I'm going with the map because the map.

The map to Ethan's point is so stunning.

I think that's the way I'm going with.

Yeah, that's surprising.

I didn't realize so many people cared about the eclipse, but clearly the data has proven us wrong.

But I'm curious about this spike in August of 2024 with home furnishings.

Like, what drove that?

Quite a spike.

Yeah, it was.

It was.

I mean, well, it's.

It's.

To be clear, it's like about 6 or 7%.

Like, it's.

It's not as massive it looks just compared to the.

To the decline.

But I think a lot of it was time available.

So it's August, so we can go look and, you know, a trip to.

To kind of a home goods, et cetera.

It's.

It's a little bit more lengthy.

It's a little bit harder to do.

So that.

That was part of it.

But I do think a big piece of this is just, hey, this is a purchase that we're back to considering.

Right.

It's.

It's not, oh, we're maybe next year because we're so worried about what the economic situation is.

It's something that we're back to thinking about significantly again.

Like, we don't normally go to furniture stores for fun, like some people do, but I don't think most people do.

And so I think that visit is a super significant sign of intent.

And I have had that argument a lot.

I think she's coming around.

I think she agrees with us now that no one actually wants to go furniture shopping that often.

But.

But, yeah, but it's interesting that it's interesting that it's definitely reversing the trend.

All right, Ethan, what's next on the list?

Next is most important takeaway of the year.

Okay.

Okay.

This is.

This is a significant one.

So cross shopping is up, right?

Cross visitation with brands is up.

We talked about this before.

For brands, especially specialty grocery or brands like Trader Joe's, the share of visits that are coming from longer distances is increasing significantly.

Yep.

Visit duration in a lot of segments is down.

Groceries, superstores, et cetera.

So we have more visitation.

We have more cross visitation, people willing to go further and spending less time in a specific store, even when you have the capacity to do a lot of things in that one store.

And that tells us about our favorite Takeaway that convenience is massively overrated.

I didn't say it's not important, but it's massively overrated.

And I think it tells us a lot about where retail is going and where we need to look at for significant retail innovation.

So if, and again, if this is in Forbes immediately after the post pandemic retail environment, confidence is king.

But no, it's not.

At best, if we use like a deck of cards, it's a 10 or a jack, but it is not king and it's certainly not an ace.

Confidence or convenience, Ethan?

Convenience.

Excuse me, you meant convenience.

Okay.

Convenience is king.

Okay.

I think confidence is great.

Confidence is great.

Yeah.

Don't get me wrong.

I love confidence, but you match convenience.

Okay?

Confidence is getting the next award.

All right.

But I think loyalty is and share of kind of shopper list.

Those are the battlegrounds.

So, right, if we sat in a pandemic environment where, all right, visits were going to be harder to come by, but once I had them in my four walls, I was going to drive a significant basket, right?

That's changed and it's changed fairly dramatically.

And it forces innovation to address this new reality where the visit isn't as hard to get, but the significance of the visit is slightly less.

So I need to take significant steps in order to drive a larger basket size and get the consumer to spend more within my four walls.

Drive that loyalty, drive that kind of wallet share, et cetera.

I, the, the one thing I would call it on this slide, too, and I actually wrote it, I put a post out on LinkedIn last week about this was the, the call out of Sprouts is really interesting to me and because, remember, we were out with Sprouts in Phoenix touring some of their new stores, and they talked about this phenomenon that Ethan's bringing up very deliberately.

They said, look, we know we're going to need to get that extra trip.

You know, we know that.

We know that no one's going to do all their shopping with us.

So how do we think about our real estate strategy in a way that complements that, that still makes it convenient.

So convenience is still a part of it for the shopper.

Right.

Where these stores are located still matters because you don't want to make them drive too far.

But that was a deliberate part of how Sprouts is thinking about this and, and the way they're doing their stores, you know, to your question and like, what are they doing here?

They've been doing a great job with that and they're kind of My sleeper for what I wrote in the LinkedIn post is they're kind of my sleeper for retailer of the year right now because they have, they have been killing it.

And I see, you know, given what's been happening with Whole Foods, I see there's a lot of on ramp here for them to continue to do really well, particularly when you're looking at this data that Ethan shared.

I don't know.

Ethan, any thoughts on that?

No, I totally agree with you.

I think there is.

There is a new scenario evolving and I think it's very different from what we've experienced the last few years where there were certain things we had grown accustomed to.

And I think retailers like Sprouts are certainly getting ahead of it.

Well, and I think, Chris, you call out an important point here about what Sprouts is doing that was kind of getting to my earlier question to Ethan is like, what are they doing to capture more of the basket once you do get them to that trip?

And we know Sprouts is really heavily invested in like featuring new products and a constantly rotating array of, you know, products that are especially going to get that next generation of consumer in.

So I'm curious if we'll start to see more of that even from like Trader Joe's for example, which we know is a beloved brand, but, um, but we don't see the innovation like Chris is talking about with the, the change to stores at least.

I feel like we haven't seen that to the level that Sprouts has done it so far.

All right, Ethan, let's keep rolling.

What's next?

I couldn't not.

Fuzziest topic.

I love this one.

Fuzziest topic.

I think the winner is retail media.

We were, we were collectively, the three of us had the joy of going to grocery shop together and if you walk the exhibition floor.

But 50% of it was dedicated to brands that were.

Or technology providers that were focused on retail media.

The buzz around this topic is very legitimate and very real.

And the reasons are because there's huge upside, right?

People are in discovery mode.

You can guide the journey.

There's high margin revenue.

It doesn't feel super complex to get from point A to point B.

Like it's not like a gigantic technological leap.

Like most of the things we need exist today.

And so there is a ton of excitement.

With that said, it's not our favorite topic or I wouldn't call it trend of the year because there are risks.

And I don't think we're properly acknowledging the risk.

And this has Become kind of the very significant footnote that we try to add.

We are at least I personally, massive believer in this trend and why it's so exciting.

And again, the overhyped trends are coming in just a second, just to tease that one more time.

But there are.

So this is just buzzy.

It's not overhyped.

Hold on.

I want to make sure I understand that.

Okay.

Okay.

I'm not.

It's close to being overhyped, but not quite overhyped.

Okay.

That's a contender for overhyped in 2025.

But I'm not.

I'm not there yet.

I'm not.

This is the B in the animal kingdom of headlines.

That's what you're of superlative awards.

Okay.

Because it's.

The problem is it still is so exciting and it.

There are important steps being taken and it does have significant potential.

And I just think that we need to like acknowledge real risk.

Right.

And the real risks are.

I think there's a good.

One of the risks is less concerning.

To me, two of the risks are very concerning.

The risk that is less concerning is the idea that it's going to be annoying.

I think what we've seen, there's a lot of polling around this is it actually contributes to the discovery journey.

It's not super annoying.

Like we're learning that lesson from that and those initial iterations of retail media in the digital environment.

But I think there are two things that do concern me.

One is the idea of accessibility.

Like it can't be 85 different networks.

There needs to be a single point to then enter a lot of them.

Otherwise everyone's going to focus on Walmart, the huge ones, you know, the Albertsons Kroger combo.

But you're not going to get to all of this kind of long tail that exists.

And then the last bit, and this concerns me even more after seeing some of these providers, is the solution can't be too digital.

Like, we need to understand the difference between the physical environment and the digital environment and embrace the fact that physical stores bring very significant value.

They don't do what digital does well.

Digital does incredible things, but it doesn't do what physical does well.

And the more we try to turn the store into a digital environment or a digital environment into the store, eg, the Metaverse, it doesn't actually work Right.

And that's because of technological gaps.

It's because what the consumer is expecting and looking for.

And so we really need to kind of lean in.

Like, I'm not a huge fan of like everything being a QR code, are there certain things that are great for it?

Yeah, but yeah, keep me in the physical environment, give me the support that enhance it, but don't take me out of what makes that environment unique and special.

Why is Sam's Club picked out on this in this, in this graphic particularly?

Just out of curiosity.

I mean we could have done anything but we wanted to show here.

It's like one of the things I love most about retail media is the idea of new forms of segmentation.

So we work with a lot of, we work with advertising companies, we work with brands, we work with retailers.

And one of the interesting things is how often they look at cuts of retail from a very simplistic form of like, hey, stores that are in the Northeast, stores that are in the Southeast, and stores that are in the Southeast operate this way.

And it's like, well, that's actually not the ideal way to think about inventory, especially from an advertising perspective.

So this is Sam's Clubs, locations that are over indexed for wealthy suburban families.

Right.

If I know that those are the Sam Clubs, I want to do my retail media through and I want to have certain product mixes within.

And so I think that kind of, that is the perspective we're bringing to the table here.

Yeah, interesting.

So, yeah, you know, my takeaway from this too is like as and like we talked about on our show recently too, particularly because this has been in the news a lot like the manifestation of retail media in the store.

You've got Sam's Club trying to, you know, force scan and go usage in its Grapevine Texas store, putting items on display that you can't buy in the store, you can only buy through your smartphone and have them delivered to your house.

You got Amazon thinking people are going to walk Whole Foods and buy Pepsi while they're shopping the aisles on their phone.

So Ethan, my take is that you're not as big, you're like us, you're not as big on that type of thing.

Particularly the latter as probably Amazon would be as an example.

No, I think, I don't think we do enough.

We take enough time to say, hey, what does the consumer actually want?

What's going to make their life better?

And I don't know.

Again, I've gone into a Target and bought a Starbucks and been super thrilled with that and walked a store with my coffee and loved it.

But I don't know that when I go to the supermarket I'm like, I really need a, need a, need a Pepsi right now.

Especially since There is Pepsi in the store and if I really want to, I can just grab it and I'm like, you know, check it out and pay.

Like I don't know that.

It's solving a huge need.

Which goes back to the routine trips of the previous slide.

Right.

Like people are going to have the routines of which stores they're going to shop at.

And breaking through, that's going to be really challenging.

That's interesting, Ethan.

Let's go on to the next one.

Most overrated innovation.

Now, it doesn't have to do with album specifically, but it doesn't have to do with just walk out technology.

Yeah.

All right.

I like there was, look.

Please don't tell anybody, even though there's an audience.

I worked in Blockchain.

I remember when everyone was excited about that and I was like, did people not see how unevolved the technology is yet?

I saw the metaverse up close, never really believed in it.

Now just walk out though, takes the cake for me.

And the reason it takes the cake is because there's a way where just walk out fuels something super exciting.

But I think we were convinced that like the most important thing is people don't want to waste time going to the cashier.

Like that is this significant friction.

Right.

But I don't think it really was.

If we had been told that, look, we want to get more data about the store, we want to understand what's going on.

Just walk out is something that facilitates that that's what we're going to.

That's where it's going to drive the revenue that's going to fund this project.

And it's going to work for the people it works for and we're still going to have cashiers.

I'm all in.

I think it's great.

But this idea that like what's really bothering me as a consumer is the cashier I think has been proven to be not true.

Right.

The question now that is kind of set up for us is do we see this kind of segment abandoned and I hope we don't, or do we see it done more intelligently?

So like, I think small, like bodega esque retail experiences, like what you see in like the Amazons within the airport, that's super cool.

I think that makes a lot of sense in major cities.

Super cool makes a lot of sense.

But if it's going to come to these larger format grocery stores, it needs to be done within a wider perspective.

And I think, you know, at this stage we have to call it for what it Is the just walk out trend just didn't live up to the potential.

Yeah.

Ethan, I think you do a really good job of calling this out because I think that the issue, one of the issues here was that I think we assumed that the convenience like you talked about earlier, that convenience was really what was going to drive these trips.

And what we're finding out is that for this, the staying power here, it that you know, you have to have the right assortment, you still have to have the right products, which is challenging in an environment that has just walk out technology.

So I think you're 100% right.

When we're talking about the bodegas, the smaller, you know, airport convenience stores, this does still make sense because convenience is key here versus these bigger shopping trips where you, you really want to have the quality of product first and then the convenience is a secondary aspect almost.

Yeah, absolutely.

Especially since like, I mean what's the amount of time you need to save for it to move the needle?

And we talked about this with conveniences camping.

But I do think that like measure of like, I think convenience is binary.

Like if I'm going to, and it's depending on what I'm, what I'm looking to buy.

But if I'm going to the grocery store, I'm willing to go X number of minutes for a product, a certain type of product and I'm not willing to go past that.

But anything within that catchment area is where I'm willing to go.

It's not as simple as like, oh, I'll go to the place that's the most convenient.

And so I think once we kind of ask ourselves that question, like what is that?

That threshold, that's where we get to a much more effective understanding of what convenience needs to mean and we don't overvalue it.

Yeah, I mean I've never thought about this before, but this kind of swy.

I love doing this show too because you get these epiphanies in the moment.

But you know, at the end of the day the beauty of, the beauty of the just walk out technology is actually the computer vision cameras that are understanding everything that's happening in the store so you can process the data and better personalize the experience to your customer.

The just walk out aspect of it is almost marginal.

Right.

It's, it's, it's almost, it's, it's, it's in comparison to like self checkout, there's not that big of an upgrade on that.

So.

So in a lot of ways when I step back from this conversation.

I think the biggest disservice Amazon might have done was calling it the just walk out technology.

Had they named it like the smart store technology of the future or some stupid thing like that that I'm coming up with off the top of my head, would we have seen more traction with it versus this gimmicky just walk out idea, which to your point, and I think still is applicable in event spaces and possibly at airports.

Although I think the question is still there because it's hard for people to acclimate towards it, especially with self checkout, even at airports.

So.

So, yeah, I don't, I don't know what you guys think about that, but I never thought about that.

Like, did they just market this wrong?

You know, is that, Is that what we're seeing here?

I don't know.

That's what I thought at one point.

I was like, pretty anti.

Just walk out for a while.

And then.

And I.

And then I was having a conversation with a major brand that was talking about their inability to really have a deep understanding of what's happening in the four walls of the store.

And I had kind of the epiphany you did, Chris.

But I just thought I was missing the point.

I was like, oh, that's what they're.

That's what they're building, clearly.

And I was like, this is genius.

Hats off.

But I think it was.

I think in some cases, maybe that was what they were going.

It's.

It's possible.

And we'll see kind of new iterations of it.

But I think there is a massive opportunity in terms of understanding what's happening in the store.

How are people moving?

What are all the things I can glean from that journey?

I think it's a huge play, but yeah, I don't think it's about.

Yeah.

And there's.

And there's much more efficient and less capitally intensive ways to get that same data via computer vision that is robots, as an example.

All right, let's keep rolling.

What's next?

Last one.

Biggest surprise from 2024.

Okay.

I call out at the beginning of every year.

Oh, by the way, it's a lie.

There's two more left.

There's this one and one more.

Okay.

We call out at the beginning of every year what we think is going to succeed, but we also call that.

And we did it together.

The three of us call out what we think is in is going to face trouble in the year to come.

And I had theaters as a segment that was going to have a Very rough year.

That's right.

We did.

Yeah.

I thought the stars were aligned against them.

Right.

It was headwinds, it was the writers strike.

And the standard set in 2023 was going to be too high.

And Barbenheimer and Taylor Swift and Beyonce.

What could this year possibly bring to the table that would match it?

And in the beginning of the year, I felt really good about myself.

I was like, ethan, good call.

But then the summer hit Inside out too, and Deadpool and Wolverine and Twisters and all these other kind of remakes just crushed.

And they brought significant visits.

And one, I think it's worth calling out just how impactful this segment has been when again, we all called it for dead, or not all of us, but many called it for dead just a few years ago.

And I think it speaks to this still risk because obviously the experience needs to continue to evolve.

A movie theater is not what it was 10 years ago.

And it must continue to embrace this idea of it's like a day out.

There's something exciting about it.

It's got to be a, you know, more interesting, better seating, more food options.

It's got to be a reason to go.

But there is life there that I don't think we gave credit for.

And certainly I even.

I was super excited about the segment, and I think I underestimated it quite a bit.

But.

But hold on a sec.

Net.

Net.

When I'm looking at this graphic, were you wrong?

I mean, they had a couple months where they were doing better than the year before, but, like, overall, I mean, this is not a pretty picture on this page.

Right.

I mean, that return to, like, prominence, I think, with all of the negatives.

Like, I'm a big believer in, like, hey, we got to judge things within context.

And so, like, sometimes things decline.

Right.

You have, like, unique performance.

So you're saying they can buck the trend.

Okay, I got you.

I think they were.

The fact that they were able to in August when we're comping it to, like, Barbie.

Yeah, right.

Taylor Swift, Beyonce.

That's a pretty significant achievement.

It's not necessarily an industry in decline.

Okay.

Yes, exactly.

Gotcha.

Gotcha.

Okay.

All right, all right.

Ethan, you said you have one more for us.

It's the biggest sneaky upside retailer to watch out for.

This is the long story.

Upside retailer.

Yeah, this is.

This is what the Oscars get wrong.

It's all their awards are too shortly named.

Yes, clearly not.

Here.

We don't mess up.

We know as long of a name as it demands, we bring in more.

Words at Omnitalk Retail.

Yes, yes.

And my sneaky upside retailer to watch out for is Macy's.

But also I'm going to widen it, the department store sector.

And there's a few reasons and I know.

Oh, my God.

Okay.

Oh, my God.

Yeah, you are.

We need to go bold, right?

So one, I think we're seeing again, when we talked about this on this, on, on this program of the bifurcation of retail.

If that's true and then we're seeing some of the challenges there and the moves to luxury and value, then there's the opportunity exists in the middle.

I think that is a piece.

I think a greater focus on curation.

Like, you see Macy's really talk up this idea that they're trying to improve their mix.

What they have there, how they draw people to the stores.

Focusing on kind of upgrading the locations that they have, I think is a big part of it.

And I think the right sizing efforts are going to start to stabilize where the right locations are kept.

And what we've seen when we look into the data, a lot of these right sizing efforts made a ton of sense.

Like they weren't.

It's not about closing a location.

It's about figuring out how many locations do you need in a specific area.

And we've seen a lot of that work.

So a lot of the areas, stores that are getting closed, there was a lot of cannibalization with other locations of the same chain.

So I think those efforts altogether speak to this sneaky upside.

I would, I would be clear that this is the biggest sneaky upside retailer to watch out for.

This is not the.

Oh, this version is going to be the best retailer next year.

But I do think there is a rebound on its way.

And I hope this is not like my Bed, Bath and Beyond.

Yeah.

Or Staples.

I wanted to use staples too, but.

I know I have no doubt double down on staples.

Oh, my God.

Giving up on staples.

Okay.

Well, Ethan, sneaky upside.

I mean, I feel like we need a whole podcast to just, just to like define what sneaky upside means.

Exactly.

But I think you do make some good points.

Like, Macy's is really focused right now.

Like, we just met with their head of pr, Private brands.

They're really focused on bringing these new brands to get people in to really define who Macy's is as a retailer.

So I'll be watching it.

I'll be.

I can see there might be a sneaky, sneaky comeback here.

But Chris doesn't look like he's.

That is that is as much support as I could have possibly hoped for.

Yeah, right.

That's about all you're gonna get.

Yeah, no, I'm putting.

I'm putting Ethan's feet to the fire on this one.

So, Ethan.

So.

So I want to make sure.

So what Data Point is telling you that they're the sneakiest retailer to watch in next year?

What is.

What Data Point is it.

It's super sneaky.

Like, you didn't see this one coming, so.

I definitely did not.

Yes.

So it's sneaky, but okay, I.

I feel like for it to really be a biggest sneaky upside retailer to watch out for when it has to really embrace, you know, the.

The category, and this is again, one of the classic retail award categories.

It's given out and so to embrace that in full.

Okay, got it, got it.

Just going out on a limb.

You're just going out on a limb.

Look, one day and in the not so distant future, this is going to be a full on award show and people are going to show up in their tuxedos and this is going to be one of the awards we hand out.

I don't know what the symbol is going to be yet.

Oh, for sure.

It's going to be great.

For sure.

All right.

Yes.

But you heard it here first that Ethan thinks Macy's is the sneakiest retailer to watch out for in 2024.

I want that on record.

And we got to keep that on record.

And we are going to revisit that each time next year when we bring Ethan on our show.

So awesome.

Short term memory loss.

So, like, I will remember this in a few months, but it'll be great.

Yes, I'm feeling good about it.

Predictions are the basis form of journalism.

Absolutely.

100%.

Well, Ethan, if people have any questions about this or they'd like to further dig into what sneaky upside means, what is the best way for them to get in touch with you, to get in touch with Placers, to dive into this type of research.

So if you want to get in touch with me, I'm at Ethan Lacer AI.

You can also find me on LinkedIn.

I love getting questions.

I love having conversations.

We've seen so many of them come from this channel.

So always, always happy to have that conversation there.

If you're interested in learning more about Placer, come to Placer AI.

We have a free version of our product.

It's super cool free tools available in a section aptly named Free Tools.

So you can go check that out and get a real taste for what is the data that kind of informs some of these decisions and see what conclusions you might come up for for biggest sneaky outside retailer to watch out for.

All right.

Well, that wraps up our show today.

Thank you so much, Ethan Chernofsky of Placer AI for sitting down with us.

And to all of you who joined us live on LinkedIn.

And as always, on behalf of all of us here at omnitalk, be careful out.