NRF's Matthew Shay on Global Retail Growth, Consumer Confidence & 2026's Holiday Outlook | Live from Paris

Hello, everyone.

This is Omnitalk Retail.

I'm Chris Walton, and we are coming to you live from the Vuzion podcast studio in booth 043 at NRF Retail's big Show Europe in Paris.

And now joining me is a man who needs no introduction if you're at this conference, and that is, of course, Matthew Shea, the president and CEO of the National Retail Federation.

Matt, it's great to see you again.

Bonjour, mon ami Bonaveur.

Bonjour.

So when did you all get into town?

Just been here a couple of days, but excited to be here.

Another great show.

Lots of energy here on the floor, happening all around us.

Appreciate your giving us a chance to say hi and have a chat.

Yeah, I always love getting to catch up with you.

Yeah.

And we're, like, right here on the floor.

There's lots of traffic going on.

So what's on tap for this year's show in Paris?

Well, you know, one of the things we've tried to do is maintain the flavor and the character of the Paris show, but bring some of the best elements of the NRF show here.

So we have the Innovator showcase.

We've got the big ideas stages.

We've added some great content.

So I think what we're.

We got the startup zone.

So there's lots of.

Lots of pieces of things that would look familiar to attendees and exhibitors that are also in New York.

And yet this still retains the character and flavor.

You know, you're not in New York when you're here.

Definitely not.

Definitely not, though.

There's too many croissants for that, I think, Matt.

But.

Yeah, right.

And lots of coffee, too.

So what's your role here, then?

What do you.

What's on your agenda for the next couple of days?

So I think our agenda is to continue to learn about this market and to try to bring what we know from our experiences in the US into this market by bringing the right exhibitors, sponsors, the right kinds of content to help this market continue to grow, and then learn from the exhibitors, the attendees, the businesses here and try to export that back into the US where it's appropriate, where it applies.

Got it.

So this show will, in a way, inform the big show in January coming up as well.

I think they all make each other better.

I think this event helps us improve New York, the event that we do in Asia Pacific, in Singapore, which we've done now for three years, we've learned a lot there, and that also helps us put the brand in a new market.

And build new relationships, bring some exhibitors and some attendees to the show in New York.

So I think it's all sort of additive as we push into new markets and try to respect those markets, learn from the people there, but take their best practices and where we can take some of that back to the US and help our members there learn about it.

Yeah.

Talk about the Asia show a little bit, because we've never asked you about that.

What is your take on that show?

That's been great.

We started that show from scratch in 2024.

Okay.

And it's been interesting to see the evolution of that show just in the last.

Now we've done it three times.

Three times, four or five, six, usually the first week in June.

And just to see how, because we located in Singapore, how you draw from around the region, all the way down to Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines, from China, from Korea, you know, from the Malay Peninsula, all over.

And it's really interesting because it's a regional event.

And so we're going to keep, keep the show in Singapore for now, but that's an event that, you know, maybe we keep it there and add another one, maybe we move it around.

I think we just keep trying to understand where the opportunities are and, and where it makes sense for us to take the brand next.

Yeah.

But it really is a global effort now at this point, year over year between Europe, now Asia and also the big show in New York every year.

Yeah.

And you know, because you've been in retail a long time and seen the evolution and the change that retail is a global business now.

Yep.

And retail, you know, we were talking about this maybe, you know, before it's time a little bit, but retail truly is global and with the application of new technologies and with the ability of consumers all over the world in every market to have transparency and insight into brands and pricing and product information and the ability to access all those markets, notwithstanding the, you know, some of the self imposed roadblocks we put up to trade over the course of the last year, particularly in the U.S. you know, I don't think you could stop it.

I mean, the momentum is in favor of giving more transparency and more access to more markets to consumers, and they'll continue to look for those opportunities.

And, you know, I think you're sort of shouting into the wind to pretend you could stop that.

And so certainly we want to have great trade deals in the US we also recognize that, you know, consumers are looking at a global marketplace and they're trying to find the best opportunities and we want to be part of that.

So we want to be in places outside of the US where it makes sense for us to go.

Yeah, it's like Thomas Friedman wrote, the world is flat.

There's nothing you're going to do about it.

Right.

Well, that's a good segue too, Matt.

So, like, I always love having you on the show because we can talk about the current state of the industry too, which you started to touch on it a little bit there.

But I'd love to go more in depth with you on it here today, this morning.

How would you sum up the state of the retail industry, particularly in the US from the chair atop which you sit right now as we're 3/4 of the way through 2026?

Well, I think the story of the retail industry is always a story you have to tell through the eyes of the consumer because retail is about consumer behavior.

And when retailers are successful, it's usually because consumers feel confident, they're positive, the economy is in good shape.

And so retail, you know, while retailers have the ability to shape their own destiny, you know, you can only do so much to impact consumers after you deliver the right price product.

And, you know, the marketing is set in a manner that's going to attract the segment of the customer base you want.

But I think in the US Right now, we've seen consumers continue to, to behave in a very positive way.

We continue to see growth.

Our retail sales monitor that we DO, each with CNBC, continues to show growth.

The unemployment rate in the US is 4.1%.

That's usually the indicator of consumer behavior.

If you have low unemployment, that means people have jobs, people are making money.

Even if wages are not growing as quickly as they were a few years ago, they're not even quite keeping up with inflation.

But on balance, consumers feel pretty healthy.

And if they feel healthy, then you're going to see retail sales grow.

So we've seen a very good first half of the year, very good first nine months of the year almost.

And so while there are some uncertainties for the second half, the last quarter and a half, we still see a lot of consumer activity, and we think it's a very positive story.

Got it.

So let's close on that then.

What is your outlook for the last three months of the year as we go into holidays?

What are you focused on at the nrf?

Well, the thing about the holidays is that consumers always find a way, you know, it's like it's sort of, you know, circled in, you know, bright, bright crayola crayon.

And they know they're not going to miss taking care of themselves, their family, their loved ones at the holiday season.

And people save for it all year long.

Retailers get ready for the holiday season all year and so do consumers.

And we know consumers start shopping earlier, they look for deals earlier.

Yeah, they're very focused on value.

But, you know, I think while there are some uncertainties as we get to the end of the year, we feel pretty good about the holiday season.

We're going to be announcing our holiday sales forecast on October 15th.

Okay.

From New York.

So that'll be just about a month from now.

And we'll know a lot more between now and when we, when we do that, we'll have one more month of retail sales numbers.

The Retail monitor will come out in early October.

We'll have that.

And we've got 25 years of history with our forecast.

We're usually very close to being on target.

And I think right now we expect that while there are challenges in the economy, there's uncertainty.

We have an election in the U.S. there's some distractions with the low unemployment rate.

Consumers have jobs, people are working.

We still are pretty positive on the outcome for the year.

Right.

That's a really good point.

I can tell.

I haven't even switched into holiday mode yet to the whole point about bringing the deals up.

And the other thing I used to always wine my watch bios.

You can expect more digital penetration this year than last year because it seems like it always moves in that direction as well.

Well, Matt, thanks for joining us today.

It's always a great pleasure when we get to talk to you.

Matthew Shea, the president and CEO of nrf.

And to all our listeners out there, as always, be careful out there.