NRF CEO Matthew Shay on Retail Innovation, AI, and the Future of the Industry | NRF 2025

Welcome back everyone.

This is Omnitok Retail.

I'm Anne Mazinga.

And I'm Chris Walton.

And we're coming to you live from the Fusion group booth number 4938.

Chris and I will be here all day today, all day tomorrow, so make sure you come stop by and say hello.

Now we have a very special guest again joining us.

This is our third year in a row that we get the opportunity to sit down with NRF Chairman and CEO Matthew Shea.

Matt, welcome to thank you program.

Great to be here.

Thanks for making time for us.

Thanks for inviting me.

Thanks for being here.

Always.

Thanks for continuing to help us tell the story of retail.

It's sorry I shaved my beard, but I'm glad, I'm glad to see you.

Yeah, we were joking beforehand.

He looked more like me a couple months ago, but it sounds like he, he had to shave it off here accidentally too, which is a great story.

But operator error.

Yeah, operator error.

Yes, user error.

So, so, but Matt, so for all our friends back home watching that are not here in attendance, all the retail executives as well as the people in the stores, we'd love to start out today by having you explain what role is it that the National Retail Federation plays within the retail industry and ecosystem.

So well, thank you again.

Thanks for having us.

So I think you really think of the NRF as having three primary functions.

One is, one is convening, bringing together groups of retail leaders, bringing together thought leaders, bringing together our members, partners as we do.

This is the most visible example of that.

But we do it all year long, a variety of settings.

So one is commuting, one is communicating and trying to deliver the message about the retail industry.

And then the third is really not so much creating content as curating content.

Okay.

And I mean our members, our members are the content retailers create the content and it's our job to curate it, to identify the right content based on what they tell us to say.

These are the priorities.

And then for us to, when we bring them together, they'll identify the priorities, they'll provide the content and then we communicate it.

So I think that's really our role is convening, curating the content and then communicating it.

Well, it's day two of the show we mentioned.

There's a lot of content that you put together for this, this conference, this several multi day conference.

What are you most proud of or excited about that is coming alive at NRF 2025?

Well, you know, we've got more than 40,000 attendees.

We've got more than a thousand, a thousand exhibitors on these three floors of the Javits Convention center here in New York City.

Hundreds of speakers, hundreds of educational sessions, amazing topics ranging, of course, AI is at the top of everyone's list that seems to be evolving into a more mature kind of set of conversations, more practical applications.

AI is exciting.

Information about robotics, information about just sort of how businesses are being transformed, about customer engagement, the customer journey.

There's a whole variety of things that are really fascinating, but for me, what I'm most excited about is to see the energy of the people that are here this week.

Yeah.

And I think that's.

That's, you know, this is the first major.

It's the largest global retail committee, and it's the first big event of the year, and it's a great kind of bellwether for what's the mood.

And, you know, you can really tell if people are excited or optimistic, enthusiastic.

And I think you really feel that here.

And I think they really are genuine about a sense of positivity and optimism for the opportunities ahead.

Yeah, it seems in a lot of ways you're almost outgrowing the Javits.

I had trouble walking around here.

There were so many people here yesterday on Sunday.

It was great.

The traffic flow was really amazing to see how many people were just excited to be here.

I'm sorry to inconvenience you, but I'm really happy to hear that.

Yeah, I know.

I figured you would be.

I figured you would be.

My inconvenience is not good for us, but.

All right, so let's get serious now for a sec.

So there's a lot of macroeconomic issues facing this industry.

You got inflation shrinks top of mind.

Tariffs are potentially looming out there.

So I'm curious, what are you focused on in your role as you look ahead to 2025?

Which of those things, if anything, are you focused on?

Yeah, I think it's a great question.

There is.

I think if they're balanced against the energy and the enthusiasm and the optimism that we feel here this week is a recognition that we're entering or operating in a moment of.

Of great uncertainty.

All kinds of unanswered questions.

And those are economic, those are cultural, social, you know, political.

There's all sorts of uncertainties about what's going to happen in the year ahead.

Some are more visible than others because of the recent elections, not only in the US which are obviously very big for us, that are citizens of the United States, but around the world.

They've been changed I mean, all over Europe, all over the rest of the world, in South America, you know, this is not something unusual in parts of Asia.

So, you know, half the world's population held national elections last year.

So, you know, going almost 8 billion people and more than 4 billion had.

So there's uncertainty and change and transformation, I think, occurring everywhere.

But to answer your question, what we really think about, because the retail industry is so consumer centric, it's about customers, it's about where are they in their journeys and where are they and their families.

That, you know, when we see a healthy consumer and a confident consumer and an optimistic consumer, then I think that's usually a good indicator that the retail industry is in a good place.

Because the retail industry, ultimately, because it's about consumption and commerce, is a reflection of the strength and health of consumers.

Now, I mean, on, in the aggregate, it looks pretty good in the aggregate retail sales.

And we announced our retail sales for last year and for the holiday season November 1st to December 31st, our forecast was 2 1/2 to 3 1/2% growth.

I think we're going to come in certainly within that range, maybe even on the high end of the range.

So if you talk to the nearly one third of attendees who are here this week from other parts of the world, they would in a minute trade what they've got in their own economies for what we've got in the US So whatever we think about our own economy, you know, in an absolute sense, the world is a relative place and it's much better in the United States than it is anywhere else in the world.

There's no question about that.

But, you know, notwithstanding that, at a high level, things look pretty good.

Individual categories, individual segments of the population, from the highest income earners to the lowest.

And then all those in the middle, they're not all enjoying the same experience.

They're not all in the same place on that journey.

And I think that's being reflected increasingly in the numbers that we see about employment and about wages and about consumption and about household net worth and about savings and all of those things is that when you put them all together in the aggregate, things look very good, look really positive.

But when you look at them on a sort of segment by segment, you know, on the different quintiles, the top 20%, the bottom 20% in the middle, it's, you know, that sort sort of satisfaction with the economy, broadly speaking, at a macro level is not distributed evenly.

There are some families and some segments of the population doing much better.

Obviously, than others.

And just a few years ago, as we came out of the economy, that wasn't necessarily the case.

I mean, because of the pandemic payments that went to so many families in America and because a good part of the experience economy was closed and you couldn't travel, you couldn't go to restaurants, you couldn't go to games, you couldn't go to concerts.

People and were working from home, going to school from home, exercising from home, entertaining from home.

So much more on the good side than on the experienced side.

And that started to shift back now.

And people have spent through savings, they've spent through their pandemic payments.

And so those families at the lower income levels are more challenged.

And so I think as we get into the year, the uncertainty sort of with layered, with that background, I think is going to create maybe, you know, over time up and to the right.

But I think the line may be sort of sideways for a while.

It's got it.

So you're saying.

So in 2025, you're kind of looking at that.

What is it, what is the uncertainty and how will it impact certain segments of the population?

And, and what do we as an industry do to help that?

Yeah, yeah, I think, I think we have to recognize that you've got to serve different consumers in different ways because they have different needs and expectations.

And you've got some that have discretionary income and they're going to be more willing to devote some of that to experiences and to luxury and to discretionary.

And then you've got some that still have to make, you know, the rent payment or the mortgage payment or devote more to energy or devote more to, you know, other of the services side.

They're sort of.

And food and things that are necessities but don't have as much for sort of the, the wants.

They're spending more on the needs.

Right, yeah.

And we've seen a lot of, lot of great action.

I mean, Walmart particularly, I'd single them out as a company that's, you know, leading the floor on that in that direction to try to create the type of atmosphere for people of all income stretches to shop, you know, in their stores too.

That's one I would single out.

Is a company that's done a great job at that.

Absolutely.

Well, Matt, let's, let's close us out with kind of what people at home who aren't at the show right now.

What is the eighth year that we've been here?

The show has evolved so much in those eight years.

Yeah, eight years.

Where were you for the first 105 years?

We've been here.

We've been here 113.

You're a little late to the party.

You know why I know that it's eight years is because my first nrf, I was very pregnant with my son and he is now seven.

So I know this is my eighth year.

That's great.

So that's.

That played into a little bit of why we weren't there previous.

105.

But that doesn't explain your.

Yeah, that's not an excuse for you.

Chris has no excuse.

I don't know.

I don't know.

Well, we're glad you're here now.

I'm late to the party, but hey.

Glad you're glad you're both here now.

Well, but tell us, tell us, Matt, like what can people expect in years to come?

How will you continue to evolve the conference?

Why should people be making NRF a must stop show on their list and just talk a little bit about how it's evolved and what's ahead in the future.

Yeah, no, that's a great question.

Thank you.

I think that, you know, if you've never been here before, you know, this is a bit of a hybrid event.

So there are some events that are all about the exhibitors and the trade show floor and walking around from booth to booth and going on the journey.

There are some events in the US and around the world that are primarily, if not exclusively about that part of the experience.

There are other events that are really about.

It's the conference, it's the educational, it's the programs, it's the sessions, speakers, topics, themes.

Some events are just conferences and there are a few keynote speakers and there are some breakout sessions.

You know, this event this week is the best of both of those combined.

So, so this is.

If you took, if you took the, the Internet big show apart and said there's just the conference component and just the trade show component, they would both be world class standalone events on their own.

World class speakers on stage, CEOs, visionaries, company founders.

And here where we are on the trade show floor, thousands of exhibitors, thousands of booths, hundreds of thousands of square feet of exhibit space with cutting edge technology innovation startups.

But you put those together and it's really a unique experience because you get the opportunity to see and hear and visit with and talk to leaders and visionaries and innovators on all of our stages.

Not just the keynote stage, but all the main stages.

But then you have the opportunity to be here on the trade show floor and see some of the things they've talked about in action and take a deeper dive and visit with some of the exhibitors, have conversations and say, I heard someone talk about this this morning in this session and I thought you could show me how that has application in the real world.

What's the practical use case for that?

So I think the combination of those two things is really exciting.

And then I think the other thing, you know, that people maybe don't appreciate, which is sort of related to that, is how much this has become a show, not it's not a technology show as much as it's an innovation show.

This is about innovation.

And all of the innovation, all the technology, AI, the robotics, the solution providers, the cutting edge things, the startup zone, the innovation lab, all those things, they're all amazing.

But you know Mark Laurie, the founder of JAT.com and a real technologist himself.

Owner of our Minnesota Timberwolves.

No, no.

Or trying to be the owner of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

We know him very well.

Yes, so, so Mark said to me years ago when I, when I talked to him once and we were having a conversation, Mark, but so all this, I mean, the innovation, the technology, you know, you've grown up, you're sort of a digital native, you see the world differently, all those things.

And he said, matt, that's true, but the only point of all this technology is to make us better merchants.

So it's not about the technology, it's about being a better retailer, serving customers, finding solutions, driving positive outcomes.

I think that's the exciting thing because everything that you see here, that we talk about is about helping retailers become better merchants, create better experiences and serve customers.

Yeah, I think we agree.

That's actually funny you said that.

I was thinking about that this morning.

There's the pragmatism of the technology here on display here in terms of how do you actually put it into practice and use it in a way that serves the consumer and the retailers both at the same time, which is really important.

The one point you didn't mention that I've always wanted to ask you, New York, why New York?

What significance is there to having this conference in New York?

Other than the obvious, I'm guessing.

Or is it just the obvious?

Well, other than, you know, Washington, D.C.

or, you know, Minnesota and Minneapolis and St.

Paul in the Twin Cities, or my little hometown of Newark, Ohio, little farm community that's county seat outside of Columbus, it's the greatest city in the world.

Other than those cities.

I just mentioned.

New York is the.

Where else would we rather be?

I see what you did there, Matt.

Yeah.

I think New York is a.

Is a great location for us because people view it as world class retail city and because we have the opportunity to bring so many retailers who are headquartered on the east coast and in New York and in this part of the world.

It's an easy access point for our global visitors, of whom almost a third of the attendees here are from outside the United States.

It's really a global event.

Obviously, Wall street is here.

We've got media here, we've got analysts here.

So point, a lot of the people that are interested in the conversations that are taking place are already in New York, regardless of which community they come from.

And rather than trying to drag all those people another time of year to another location, another part of the United States, we've talked about other places before.

And every time we start the conversation, we always end up right back where we started, which is New York after, after Minneapolis, St.

Paul, Newark, Ohio.

It's the greatest city in the world.

After those other two.

Yes.

Right.

Yeah.

So it's like Frank Sinatra said.

All right, well, Matt Shea, thank you so much for joining us.

President and CEO of the National Retail Federation, thanks for being with us today.

We're going to be here all week long recording interviews from the Fusion Group's podcast studio, which you can find in booth 4938.

And Ann, as always, be careful out there.