The Universe's Surprising Expiration Date

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This is Space Time Series 28
episode 63 for broadcast on the

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26th of May 2025. Coming up on
Space Time, the universe to end

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sooner than thought, the weird
wild wacky Gravity of the

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asteroid Bennu, and India to
undertake its first manned space

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flight within two years. All
that and more coming up on Space

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Time.

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Welcome to Space Time with
Stuart Gary.

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A new study claims the universe
could end in 10 to the power 78

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years from now. That's a 1 with
78 zeros behind it, and it is

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much sooner than previously
thought. The findings, reported

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in the Journal Of Cosmology and
Astroparticle Physics, are based

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on the calculations of three
Dutch scientists looking at

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so-called Hawking radiation.

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They calculate that the universe
's last stellar remnants will

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take about 10 to the power of 78
years from now to evaporate, and

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that's much shorter than the 10
to the power 1,100 years

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previously postulated. Hawking
radiation.

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Proposed by Stephen Hawking back
in 1974, is a phenomenon where

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black holes emit thermal
radiation due to quantum effects

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near the event horizon, the
point of no return, beyond which

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an object falls forever into a
black hole singularity. This

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radiation reduces a black hole's
mass, eventually leading to its

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disappearance. Now it works like
this. Quantum physics predicts

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that the vacuum of space isn't
truly empty.

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But rather it contains
constantly fluctuating pairs of

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virtual particles and
antiparticles that literally pop

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in and out of existence. Now,
near a black hole's event

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horizon, these virtual particles
can be separated by the

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singularity's intense Gravity.
If one of these virtual

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particles falls into the black
hole, the other can escape and

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be observed as radiation,
becoming real and effectively

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evaporating the black hole.

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The escaping particle carries or
radiates away energy. Thus

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reducing the black hole's mass.
And the rate of this evaporation

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would depend on the black hole's
mass. Larger black holes have

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lower Hawking temperatures and
evaporate more slowly, while

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smaller black holes have higher
Hawking temperatures and

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therefore evaporate faster.

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Now over time, the continuous
emission of Hawking radiation

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would theoretically lead to the
gradual evaporation of the black

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hole itself. And taking that to
its natural conclusion,

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eventually the black hole's mass
will reach zero. It'll no longer

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exist.

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Now, the new research by black
hole expert Hina Falke, quantum

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physicist Michael Wondrake, and
mathematician Walter Van

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Sulckrum, all from the
University Of Radboud, is a

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follow-up to an earlier 2023
paper by the same trio. Now,

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back in that paper, they showed
that not only black holes, but

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also other objects, such as
neutron stars, can also

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evaporate through Hawking
radiation.

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Now, after that publication, the
authors received heaps of

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questions from scientists about
how long the process would take.

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And they've now answered that
question in this new study. And

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as we mentioned at the top of
the story, the authors have

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calculated that the end of the
universe is about 10 to the

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power of 78 years away, if only
Hawking-like radiation is taken

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into account.

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They base this on the time they
calculated it would take for a

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white dwarf star, the most
common, persistent type of

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celestial bodies in the
universe, to decay through

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Hawking-like radiation. The
problem is previous studies

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didn't take this into account,
putting the lifetime of white

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dwarves at 10 to the power of
1,100 years.

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Now the researchers calculated
that the process of Hawking

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radiation theoretically also
applies to other objects with a

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gravitational field. The
calculations further showed that

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the evaporation time for an
object depends only on its

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density.

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To the author's surprise,
neutron stars and stellar mass

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black holes took the same amount
of time to decay. 10 to the

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power of 67 years. This was
unexpected, because black holes

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have stronger gravitational
fields than neutron stars, which

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should cause them to evaporate
faster. But the thing is, black

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holes have no surface, so they
reabsorb some of their own

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radiation, and that inhibits the
process.

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It's a fascinating study, all
purely hypothetical of course,

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but nevertheless fascinating.
This is Space Time. Still to

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come... The weird, wild, wacky
Gravity of the asteroid Bennu,

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and India to undertake its first
manned spaceflight within two

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years. All that and more still
to come on Space Time.

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Astronomers have examined the
weird Alice in Wonderland-like

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physics that govern Gravity near
the surface of the asteroid

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Bennu. The new findings are
based on data gathered by NASA's

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OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, which
undertook a sample return

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mission to the
half-kilometer-wide near-Earth

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asteroid. The probe was launched
back in 2016, arriving at Bennu

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in 2018.

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He then spent two years studying
the carbonaceous Apollo group

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space rock. Before swooping down
to the surface and grabbing some

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samples for a return to Earth in
2023. During the mission's study

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of Bennu, scientists examined
and mapped its topography, its

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structure, its composition and,
importantly for this story, its

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gravitational pull.

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A report in the journal Nature
Astronomy found the asteroid has

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a mass of 73 billion kilograms.
And the authors also found that

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Bennu exists in the delicate
balance between two competing

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forces, the result of the
asteroid's spin. See, Bennu

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completes a full rotation around
its axis once every four hours.

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That's quite fast.

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Studies lead author Daniel
Shears from the University Of

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Colorado Boulder says those
forces play an important role in

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the asteroid's long-term
evolution and potential demise.

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He says when you spin an
asteroid up, you create a

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competition between Gravity that
's holding things together and

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centrifugal acceleration, which
is trying to pull things apart.

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To study those forces, Shears
and colleagues used OSIRIS-REx's

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navigational instruments to
measure the minute tug that the

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asteroid exerts on the
spacecraft. And in the process,

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they dug up a lot more than they
expected. Now, based on the

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group's calculations, it appears
the region around Bennu's

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equator is trapped within a
gravitational feature known as a

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rotational Roche Lobe.

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And that's something scientists
haven't yet clearly observed on

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an asteroid. Now, the Roche
limit is the point at which the

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gravitational tidal effects of a
large body on a smaller one

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become so powerful as to
overcome the smaller body's own

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internal Gravity, causing it to
fling apart. And she's found

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that that's when things get
weird with Bennu.

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So, now, if you're standing
inside the boundaries of Bennu's

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Roche lobe, and you slipped on,
say, a banana peel, for example,

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then not much would happen.
You'd be captured by the lobe

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and fall back onto the surface.
But if you were outside the

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Roche Lobe and slipped on that
same banana peel, you'd end up

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rolling towards the equator.

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And you could theoretically gain
enough energy to quite literally

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roll off the equator and up into
orbit and then into outer space.

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Now, she admits it all sounds
like the sort of environment

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looks Carol would have
appreciated. But it does matter

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in real life, especially for the
lifespan of Bennu.

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See, that's because radiation
from the sun is causing Bennu to

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spin faster and faster over
time. And as the asteroid's

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rotation builds up speed, its
Roche limit might also be

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shrinking, along with the forces
that are holding the whole thing

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together. And as the Roche Lobe
narrows further around the

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equator, it becomes easier for
the asteroid to lose material.

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Shree says that so far that
material has been trapped by

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Gravity, but at some point if
the asteroid keeps spinning

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faster, then you would wind up
falling off the cliff. In other

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words, Bennu could well be in
the process of spinning itself

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into pieces. And Sri says that's
important because Bennu is one

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of those asteroids which could
one day impact the Earth.

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The main role of the University
Of Colorado on the OSIRIS-REx

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mission is in the radio science
experiment. When we send a

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spacecraft out to this asteroid,
billions and billions of

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kilometers away from the Earth,
the only way we can command it,

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control it, see what it's doing
is by sending radio waves out to

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the spacecraft.

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The main result from radio
science is actually to measure

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the mass and the Gravity field
of this asteroid. Pristine

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material from the very dawn of
the solar system. Bennu has a

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non-negligible probability of
impacting the Earth a few

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hundred years in the future.

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We take our very precise
measurement to determine its

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location accurately enough so we
can say, oh, okay, it's going to

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miss the Earth by a far distance
in the future. If, in fact, that

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's not the case, then we need to
start thinking about, well, how

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would we actually push this
asteroid out of the way?

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You need time and you need to
understand the properties of the

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asteroid.

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That's Daniel Shries from the
University Of Colorado Boulder.

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And this is Space Time. Still to
come, India to undertake its

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first manned spaceflight within
two years. And later in the

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Science Report, archaeologists
excavating the ancient Iraqi

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city of Nineveh have discovered
the Royal Palace's throne room.

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All that and more still to come
on Space Time.

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The Indian space research
organisation ISRO says it will

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00:12:04,511 --> 00:12:07,291
attempt to launch its first
manned space mission in early

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00:12:07,292 --> 00:12:12,011
2027. The historic flight will
follow an unmanned test flight

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00:12:12,012 --> 00:12:15,691
of the nation's Gagayan
spacecraft later this year. The

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00:12:16,571 --> 00:12:19,371
5.3-tonne capsule is designed to
carry a crew of three into

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00:12:19,471 --> 00:12:20,291
low-Earth orbit.

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00:12:20,851 --> 00:12:23,931
The spacecraft will be sent into
orbit using an updated version

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00:12:23,932 --> 00:12:28,791
of the 59-metre-tall GSLV Mark
III rocket, GSLV standing for

209
00:12:28,851 --> 00:12:31,680
Geosynchronous Satellite Launch
Vehicle. Although these days it

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00:12:31,680 --> 00:12:35,242
's also being known as Launch
Vehicle Mark 3 or LVM-3.

211
00:12:36,443 --> 00:12:39,306
So far, four Indian Air Force
pilots have been selected for

212
00:12:39,326 --> 00:12:41,808
the flight, and they've already
undertaken their cosmonaut

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00:12:41,848 --> 00:12:44,510
training in Russia and are now
undergoing further mission

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00:12:44,610 --> 00:12:47,852
specialist training back in
India. And the Indian Navy's

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00:12:47,972 --> 00:12:50,995
also been rehearsing conducting
sea recovery trials for the

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00:12:51,015 --> 00:12:54,177
mission with more simulations
planned prior to the flight.

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00:12:55,963 --> 00:12:58,605
Meanwhile, an Indian rocket
carrying a New Earth Observation

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00:12:58,705 --> 00:13:03,209
Satellite has failed to reach
orbit. The PSLV C-61 launch

219
00:13:03,269 --> 00:13:06,291
vehicle blasted off from the
Shirakota Space Center on the

220
00:13:06,351 --> 00:13:11,375
Bay Of Bengal coast, carrying
the EOS-09 spacecraft. ISRO says

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00:13:11,376 --> 00:13:13,877
there was a sudden fall in
chamber pressure during the

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00:13:13,917 --> 00:13:16,679
third-stage rocket burn,
preventing the payload from

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00:13:16,739 --> 00:13:22,063
reaching orbit. An investigation
is now underway. This is Space

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Time.

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And time now to take a brief
look at some of the other

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stories making news in science
this week with the Science

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Report. A new study has found
that herpes simplex 1, the virus

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responsible for cold sores, may
also have a key role to play in

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the development of Alzheimer's
disease.

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The findings, reported in the
British Medical Journal, suggest

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that treatment with antiviral
therapy might be linked to a

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lower risk of the condition. The
authors matched up close to

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350,000 pairs of people, one
diagnosed with Alzheimer's, and

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the other without. Now overall,
they found the likelihood of an

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HSV-1 diagnosis was 80% higher
among those with Alzheimer's.

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They also found that people who
used antiviral medication after

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their diagnosis were 17% less
likely to develop Alzheimer's

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compared to those who didn't use
the treatments. Additionally,

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the authors also looked at the
role of other herpesviruses and

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suggest that both HSV-2 and
varicillin-rooster virus

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infections were also associated
with a heightened risk. Of

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getting Alzheimer's.

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Archaeologists excavating a dig
site in the ancient Iraqi city

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of Nineveh have discovered the
royal throne room of the north

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palace of King Ashurbanipal. The
find includes large portions of

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a monumental stone slab some
five and a half meters long by

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three meters high and weighing
around 12 tons.

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It features a carved relief
depicting the ruler of the

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Assyrian Empire from the 7th
century BCE along with two

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important deities and other
figures. Shown in the centre of

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the recently discovered relief
is King Ashur-Benapal, the last

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great ruler of the Assyrian
Empire. He is flanked by two

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supreme deities, the gods Ashur
and Ishtar, the patron goddess

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of Nineveh.

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Archaeologists believe the
figure suggests that a massive

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winged sun disk was probably
originally mounted above the

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relief. The ancient city of
Nineveh, located near the modern

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Iraqi city of Mosul, is
considered to be one of the most

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important cities of North
Mesopotamia, and under King

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Sennacherib, became the capital
of the Assyrian Empire in the

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late 8th century BCE.

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A new study has found that
native Australian bees living in

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areas where European honeybees
are prevalent wind up having

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fewer female offspring and a
higher death rate in their first

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years of life.

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The findings, reported in the
Journal of the Frontiers in Bee

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Science, studied native bees
living in bee hotels, wooden

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boxes designed for native bees
to rest and breed in. They

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looked at 14 sites around Perth,
looking at whether their

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proximity to introduced bees
impacted various signs of

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fitness.

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The authors say it takes fewer
resources to produce male bees

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compared to female bees, so the
change in sex ratio they

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observed among native bees could
be a sign that the natives are

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struggling to compete for
resources, which in turn makes

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it harder for the next
generation to reproduce because

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there are fewer females in the
area.

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While a source of eternal
frustration for those of us

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fascinated by the wonders of a
universe of science fact, for

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many others, the mysteries of
the supernatural retain a sort

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of magical allure. Now, whether
it's the Bermuda Triangle,

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personality tests, ghost
hunting, crop circles, the Loch

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Ness Monster or Bigfoot, they
all have one thing in common.

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They simply don't live up to the
rigors of actual scientific

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testing. Nevertheless, they all
attract passionate supporters.

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And in fact, even when people
know they're not real, they're

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still often fascinated by the
idea. And Tim Mendham from

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Australian Skeptics says there's
a whole range of reasons why

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this is such a common human
quirk.

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Various reasons, if that be
suggested. One is that people

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want our world to be more
exciting, more glamorous, more

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weird, mysterious. So that's one
thing is the excitement level.

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The other one is the fear level,
that the world's a pretty scary

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place, things happen to you
without any apparent reason.

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I'd like there to be some more
reliable information in the

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world. Then these I don't feel
that the world as it is, as I

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know it, is reliable. I'll tune
into something else which is

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sort of UFOs exist, or the world
is flat, or the stars can decide

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my future, etc. That's another
one, that fear factor.

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The other one is a conspiracy
factor, that anything which is

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associated with established fact
or science or policy must be

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false, because obviously they're
campaigning against us, whether

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it's big government, big pharma,
big science, whatever. Anything

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they say is inherently false,
according to some people, and

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therefore will go to the
opposite.

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If I don't trust the government,
therefore something which is...

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Anti-government must be true,
which is poor logic, but never

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mind. It's never been a major
issue. So the governments are

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trying to block the U.S.A. The
governments are trying to block

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this knowledge or that
knowledge. Therefore, that

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00:18:04,482 --> 00:18:05,002
knowledge has...

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Hiding the truth about Bigfoot.

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Well, I don't understand that
one. I don't know why a

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government would actually cover
up Bigfoot. I thought, you know,

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tourism, et cetera, would be a
good thing.

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It's the latest animal planet
Bigfoot story that's doing the

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rounds.

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00:18:16,811 --> 00:18:19,373
Yeah, it probably is. I mean,
you know, the inventiveness of

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people to find conspiracies is
never-ending. So there's various

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reasons why we like
pseudoscience. It's one of those

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fun... It might be a fun thing.
It is fun.

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That's why we cover it on this
show, because it is fun.

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That's right. Yeah, it's fun
elements. It's exciting. Yeah,

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it's interesting. It's as
interesting as Harry Potter. I

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don't believe Harry Potter's
real. I don't believe the Loch

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Ness Monster is real. It doesn't
stop you enjoying them. But

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then, yeah, it also...

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You've been there three times.
Come on.

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I have been there three times.
Not to Harry Potter, I should

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say, actually, but to Loch Ness
I have been. Yeah, it's great.

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It's a lovely place, too. I
recommend it. Nice little

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00:18:48,310 --> 00:18:51,810
restaurants and things. But just
by saying it's fun doesn't mean

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it's bad. And if you believe it
's true, it can actually start

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influencing you in what you do
in life.

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Like astrology is not true. Your
listeners always interested in

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00:19:00,909 --> 00:19:03,051
astronomy would probably know
that there's nothing in

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astrology. There's nothing in
the flat Earth theory as well.

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Probably nothing in UFOs, UAPs,
whatever. No evidence,

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certainly. But people follow
astrology. People definitely

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00:19:11,137 --> 00:19:13,979
follow astrology and use it to
make their life decisions.

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People are interested in UFOs
and can use that as part of

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their philosophy of
anti-government, everything. And

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that UFOs are here to save us.
Or destroys, depending on your

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point of view. Flat Earth is a
classic conspiracy theory.

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They're trying to cover it up.
It's one of the silliest

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conspiracy theories out there.

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But, I mean, there are things
which are dangerous to people.

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And those things that are fun,
fine, have fun. But what the

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skeptics see, unfortunately, is
these things bending into other

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00:19:36,530 --> 00:19:39,293
areas. Conspiracy about UFOs
might be a conspiracy about

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health as well. It might be a
little lean to the same mindset.

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00:19:42,075 --> 00:19:44,657
That's Tim Endham from
Australian Skeptics.

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And that's the show for now.
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