Sept. 19, 2026

The Unifying Mystery of Black Hole Jets: Stellar and Supermassive Connections

The Unifying Mystery of Black Hole Jets: Stellar and Supermassive Connections
The Unifying Mystery of Black Hole Jets: Stellar and Supermassive Connections
Space News Today
The Unifying Mystery of Black Hole Jets: Stellar and Supermassive Connections

SHOW NOTES Black hole jets follow one universal rule Adelle Goodwin (Curtin University / ICRAR, Forrest Research Foundation Fellow) and Andrew Mummery (Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton) show that supermassive black holes launch their outflows at the same critical accretion rate as stellar-mass black holes — about 2% of the Eddington limit — making accretion-outflow coupling scale-invariant across seven orders of magnitude in mass. Nature Astronomy, 17 September 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41550-026-02951-1 JWST's Little Red Dots are black hole seeds caught mid-growth Sunmyon Chon, Shingo Hirano, Tomoaki Ishiyama, Seok-Jun Chang and Volker Springel ran fully cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations on Japan's ATERUI III supercomputer and produced heavy black hole seeds of about a million solar masses, whose optically thick discs generate exactly the broad hydrogen emission seen in Little Red Dots. Nature 657, 621-625, 16 September 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10985-8 Earth's centre of mass moves about half as far as we thought Donald Argus, Felix Landerer and colleagues at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the University of Nevada, the University of Montana and the Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, revise the annual oscillation between Earth's centre of mass and its centre of figure down from roughly 11 millimetres to about 4 to 5.5. Geophysical Journal International, ggag314. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggag314 Two numbers explain the weather on a world 20 light-years away Merle Schrader and colleagues at Trinity College Dublin applied principal component analysis to one rotation of JWST spectroscopy of the brown dwarf SIMP 0136 and found two components — temperature and vertical cloud structure — account for all the detectable variability. Astronomy & Astrophysics, open access. DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202660109 The Sun goes blank With only active region AR4528 left on the Earth-facing disc and rotating out of view, the Sun was on the verge of its first spotless day since 24 February 2026 — which itself ended a 1,335-day run of continuous sunspot activity stretching back to June 2022. Skywatch: Venus at greatest brilliancy, first quarter Moon, Observe the Moon Night Venus reaches greatest brilliancy on 18 September at magnitude -4.8; the Moon reaches exact first quarter at 20:43 UTC the same day, setting up International Observe the Moon Night on Saturday 19 September. All times and altitudes in this segment were computed for Sydney, Los Angeles, New York and London. SKYWATCH — COMPUTED REFERENCE Computed in-session with PyEphem 4.2.1. Local times. Sydney on AEST (UTC+10); Los Angeles PDT; New York EDT; London BST. City Sunset Venus alt Venus sets Mercury Mars pre-dawn Sydney 17:45 39.2 deg 20:58 (3h13m) 16.4 deg (sets 1h20m) 20.4 deg Los Angeles 18:52 14.3 deg 20:10 (1h19m) 8.8 deg (sets 0h43m) 48.4 deg New York 18:56 10.3 deg 19:59 (1h03m) 7.0 deg (sets 0h38m) 46.1 deg London 19:04 3.6 deg 19:32 (0h28m) 3.9 deg (sets 0h26m) 40.6 deg · Venus greatest brilliancy: 18 September 2026, magnitude -4.8. Disc 39.6 arcsec, 26% illuminated. · By 22 September the disc has grown to 42.3 arcsec but the lit fraction has fallen to 22.7% — the two changes nearly cancel, which is why listings disagree on the date. The peak is genuinely flat. · Moon reaches exact first quarter 18 September at 20:43 UTC = 06:43 AEST Sat 19 Sep / 16:43 EDT Fri 18 / 13:43 PDT Fri 18 / 21:43 BST Fri 18. · Moon altitude at sunset: Sydney 81.6 deg (near overhead), Los Angeles 27.1 deg, New York 20.4 deg, London 9.4 deg. · International Observe the Moon Night: Saturday 19 September 2026. NASA event at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center, Huntsville, 5:30-8:00pm CST. · Pre-dawn Sat 19 Sep at nautical dawn — Jupiter: Los Angeles 26.4 deg, New York 25.1 deg, London 21.9 deg, Sydney 8.9 deg. · Mars-Jupiter separation: 22.9 deg on 18 Sep, 12.0 deg mid-October, 1.2 deg mid-November 2026. · Saturn is up essentially all night; sets 06:47 Sydney, 07:55 Los Angeles. Opposition 4 October 2026, disc 19.6 arcsec, rings approx 7 deg open. · September equinox: a single instant, 00:05:09 UTC on 23 September 2026 — evening of the 22nd in the Americas, mid-morning of the 23rd in Australia. · All figures computed in-session with PyEphem 4.2.1 for the four reference cities. Sydney is on AEST (UTC+10); daylight saving begins 4 October.



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WEBVTT
Kind: captions
Language: en

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Take a black hole 10 times the mass of


00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:05.749
the sun. Now take one 10 million times


00:00:05.759 --> 00:00:07.829
heavier. The kind that sits in the


00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:10.150
middle of a galaxy and anchors a 100


00:00:10.160 --> 00:00:13.509
billion stars. Those two objects have


00:00:13.519 --> 00:00:16.150
almost nothing in common. Different


00:00:16.160 --> 00:00:18.310
sizes, different neighborhoods,


00:00:18.320 --> 00:00:20.950
different life stories. One of them you


00:00:20.960 --> 00:00:23.509
could fit inside a city. The other one


00:00:23.519 --> 00:00:25.750
you could pour the entire inner solar


00:00:25.760 --> 00:00:28.870
system into and still have room. And


00:00:28.880 --> 00:00:31.349
this week, a team led out of Perth has


00:00:31.359 --> 00:00:33.110
shown that when it comes to the single


00:00:33.120 --> 00:00:35.750
most dramatic thing a black hole does,


00:00:35.760 --> 00:00:38.069
firing a jet of material out into space


00:00:38.079 --> 00:00:40.389
at close to the speed of light, both of


00:00:40.399 --> 00:00:43.430
them wait for exactly the same moment.


00:00:43.440 --> 00:00:46.790
>> Same trigger, same threshold, seven


00:00:46.800 --> 00:00:49.190
orders of magnitude apart.


00:00:49.200 --> 00:00:51.430
>> Hello and welcome to Astronomy Daily.


00:00:51.440 --> 00:00:52.709
I'm Anna.


00:00:52.719 --> 00:00:55.750
>> And I'm Avery. It's Friday, the 18th of


00:00:55.760 --> 00:00:59.830
September, 2026, and this is episode


00:00:59.840 --> 00:01:01.270
197.


00:01:01.280 --> 00:01:02.630
>> So, let's start with the thing that


00:01:02.640 --> 00:01:05.270
makes this hard. Black holes don't emit


00:01:05.280 --> 00:01:07.830
anything themselves. What we actually


00:01:07.840 --> 00:01:10.789
see is the material falling in. It piles


00:01:10.799 --> 00:01:13.109
up into a disc. It heats up through


00:01:13.119 --> 00:01:15.109
friction until it's glowing across the


00:01:15.119 --> 00:01:17.270
electromagnetic spectrum. And then


00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:19.830
sometimes, not always, but sometimes,


00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:21.670
some of it gets flung back out in a


00:01:21.680 --> 00:01:24.310
narrow, tightly columnated jet.


00:01:24.320 --> 00:01:26.230
>> And the question of when you get a jet


00:01:26.240 --> 00:01:28.390
and when you don't, has been open for


00:01:28.400 --> 00:01:29.830
decades.


00:01:29.840 --> 00:01:32.630
>> It has. But for one class of black hole,


00:01:32.640 --> 00:01:34.950
we actually have a very good answer.


00:01:34.960 --> 00:01:37.510
Stellar mass black holes, the ones left


00:01:37.520 --> 00:01:39.590
behind when a massive star collapses,


00:01:39.600 --> 00:01:42.310
maybe 5 to 20 times the sun's mass,


00:01:42.320 --> 00:01:44.710
often sit in binary systems, pulling


00:01:44.720 --> 00:01:47.429
material off a companion star. And those


00:01:47.439 --> 00:01:50.550
systems cycle. They brighten, they fade,


00:01:50.560 --> 00:01:52.310
they go through what astronomers call


00:01:52.320 --> 00:01:54.789
state transitions. And they do it over


00:01:54.799 --> 00:01:56.710
weeks and months,


00:01:56.720 --> 00:01:58.550
>> which means we've watched the whole


00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:02.550
process start to finish many times over.


00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:05.190
many many times. And what we've learned


00:02:05.200 --> 00:02:07.350
is that the jets switch on and off at


00:02:07.360 --> 00:02:09.669
particular points in that cycle. And


00:02:09.679 --> 00:02:11.670
those points are tied to how fast the


00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:14.070
black hole is feeding, measured against


00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:16.790
something called the Edington limit.


00:02:16.800 --> 00:02:19.110
>> And this is worth spelling out because


00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:21.830
everything else today rests on it.


00:02:21.840 --> 00:02:24.710
>> It really does. So material falling


00:02:24.720 --> 00:02:27.110
toward a black hole gets extremely hot


00:02:27.120 --> 00:02:29.510
and hot material radiates. That


00:02:29.520 --> 00:02:32.229
radiation pushes outward. gravity pulls


00:02:32.239 --> 00:02:34.710
inward. The Edington limit is the point


00:02:34.720 --> 00:02:36.630
where those two balance, where the


00:02:36.640 --> 00:02:38.550
radiation coming off the infalling


00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:41.270
material is pushing outward just as hard


00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:43.190
as the black hole's gravity is pulling


00:02:43.200 --> 00:02:44.309
in.


00:02:44.319 --> 00:02:46.550
>> So if you try to feed a black hole


00:02:46.560 --> 00:02:49.030
faster than that, the radiation starts


00:02:49.040 --> 00:02:50.390
blowing the meal away.


00:02:50.400 --> 00:02:54.309
>> Anna, roughly, yes. Though nature has


00:02:54.319 --> 00:02:56.070
ways around it, and we'll come back to


00:02:56.080 --> 00:02:57.990
that. The useful thing about the


00:02:58.000 --> 00:02:59.830
Edington limit is that it scales with


00:02:59.840 --> 00:03:02.390
mass. A black hole a million times


00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:04.229
heavier has a limit a million times


00:03:04.239 --> 00:03:06.390
higher. So instead of talking about


00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:08.869
absolute brightness, astronomers talk in


00:03:08.879 --> 00:03:12.309
fractions of Edington, 10% of Edington,


00:03:12.319 --> 00:03:15.190
1% of Edington. And that gives you a way


00:03:15.200 --> 00:03:17.030
to compare black holes of wildly


00:03:17.040 --> 00:03:19.509
different sizes on the same scale.


00:03:19.519 --> 00:03:21.670
>> Which brings us to the super massive


00:03:21.680 --> 00:03:24.070
black holes. And the reason this has


00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:25.830
been so stubborn,


00:03:25.840 --> 00:03:28.390
>> the reason is simply time. Everything


00:03:28.400 --> 00:03:30.470
about an accretion flow scales with the


00:03:30.480 --> 00:03:32.710
mass of the black hole and that includes


00:03:32.720 --> 00:03:35.350
how fast it evolves. A stellar mass


00:03:35.360 --> 00:03:38.229
system cycles in months. A super massive


00:03:38.239 --> 00:03:41.030
black hole in an ordinary active galaxy


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takes something on the order of


00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:45.270
thousands of years to do the equivalent.


00:03:45.280 --> 00:03:48.070
>> So you can't watch one. You get a single


00:03:48.080 --> 00:03:51.350
frame of a film that runs for millennia.


00:03:51.360 --> 00:03:53.830
>> Exactly that. You can look at thousands


00:03:53.840 --> 00:03:56.070
of active galaxies and take a census.


00:03:56.080 --> 00:03:57.990
Here's one with a jet. Here's one


00:03:58.000 --> 00:04:00.229
without. But you can never watch a


00:04:00.239 --> 00:04:02.229
single object cross a threshold and see


00:04:02.239 --> 00:04:04.710
what happens. Which means the critical


00:04:04.720 --> 00:04:06.390
accretion rates that we know so


00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.869
precisely for stellar mass black holes


00:04:08.879 --> 00:04:10.630
have simply been unmeasurable for the


00:04:10.640 --> 00:04:12.070
big ones.


00:04:12.080 --> 00:04:14.229
>> Unless something gives a super massive


00:04:14.239 --> 00:04:17.749
black hole a sudden well-defined meal.


00:04:17.759 --> 00:04:20.390
>> And that's the move. Tidal disruption


00:04:20.400 --> 00:04:23.189
events. A star wanders too close to the


00:04:23.199 --> 00:04:24.950
super massive black hole at the center


00:04:24.960 --> 00:04:27.110
of its galaxy. The difference in


00:04:27.120 --> 00:04:28.950
gravitational pull across the star


00:04:28.960 --> 00:04:31.189
exceeds what's holding the star together


00:04:31.199 --> 00:04:33.670
and it comes apart. Roughly half the


00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:35.670
debris gets flung away and the other


00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:37.590
half falls back and builds a brand new


00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:40.390
accretion disc from nothing.


00:04:40.400 --> 00:04:43.189
>> And that one plays out fast,


00:04:43.199 --> 00:04:46.070
>> years, not millennia. You get to watch


00:04:46.080 --> 00:04:48.230
an accretion flow around a super massive


00:04:48.240 --> 00:04:52.070
black hole be born, rise, peak, and


00:04:52.080 --> 00:04:54.469
decline. And you can do it inside a


00:04:54.479 --> 00:04:56.870
single research career. That is the


00:04:56.880 --> 00:04:59.670
entire reason this result was possible.


00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:02.629
>> So Dr. Adele Goodwin at Curtain


00:05:02.639 --> 00:05:04.950
University's International Center for


00:05:04.960 --> 00:05:08.070
Radioastronomy Research in Perth, who's


00:05:08.080 --> 00:05:10.230
also a forest research foundation


00:05:10.240 --> 00:05:13.350
fellow, working with Dr. Andrew Mumry at


00:05:13.360 --> 00:05:15.430
the Institute for Advanced Study in


00:05:15.440 --> 00:05:18.310
Princeton, published in Nature Astronomy


00:05:18.320 --> 00:05:20.870
yesterday, Thursday the 17th of


00:05:20.880 --> 00:05:21.990
September.


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>> And what they show is that title


00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:25.510
disruption events actually launch


00:05:25.520 --> 00:05:28.070
outflows twice in two physically


00:05:28.080 --> 00:05:31.110
distinct episodes. The first comes early


00:05:31.120 --> 00:05:32.790
while the black hole is feeding above


00:05:32.800 --> 00:05:35.670
its Edington limit. That brief ferocious


00:05:35.680 --> 00:05:37.590
phase right after the star comes apart


00:05:37.600 --> 00:05:39.430
when there's far more material trying to


00:05:39.440 --> 00:05:41.430
get in than the black hole can


00:05:41.440 --> 00:05:43.029
comfortably swallow.


00:05:43.039 --> 00:05:45.029
>> The prompt outflow,


00:05:45.039 --> 00:05:47.590
>> the prompt one. And then later,


00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:49.990
sometimes months or years later, there's


00:05:50.000 --> 00:05:53.029
a second separate outflow. And that one


00:05:53.039 --> 00:05:54.870
arrives as the accretion rate falls


00:05:54.880 --> 00:05:57.909
through a specific value about 2% of the


00:05:57.919 --> 00:05:58.870
Edington limit.


00:05:58.880 --> 00:06:02.950
>> 2%. And that number is familiar. That


00:06:02.960 --> 00:06:05.110
number is the same critical accretion


00:06:05.120 --> 00:06:07.350
rate at which stellar mass black holes


00:06:07.360 --> 00:06:09.029
in binaries make their state


00:06:09.039 --> 00:06:11.590
transitions. The same value we've


00:06:11.600 --> 00:06:13.749
measured over and over in objects


00:06:13.759 --> 00:06:16.230
millions of times smaller. Goodwin and


00:06:16.240 --> 00:06:17.990
Mumy are arguing that the coupling


00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:20.629
between how a black hole feeds and how


00:06:20.639 --> 00:06:23.270
it throws material back out is scale


00:06:23.280 --> 00:06:25.430
invariant. That it doesn't care about


00:06:25.440 --> 00:06:26.550
mass at all


00:06:26.560 --> 00:06:29.029
>> across roughly seven orders of


00:06:29.039 --> 00:06:30.309
magnitude.


00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:32.870
>> Which, if it holds, is a genuinely


00:06:32.880 --> 00:06:34.790
unifying statement about a class of


00:06:34.800 --> 00:06:37.029
object we usually treat as two separate


00:06:37.039 --> 00:06:38.150
populations.


00:06:38.160 --> 00:06:40.309
>> And it also clears up a mess, doesn't


00:06:40.319 --> 00:06:42.790
it? Because radio astronomers have had


00:06:42.800 --> 00:06:45.029
an awkward problem with these events for


00:06:45.039 --> 00:06:45.990
a while.


00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:48.550
>> A very awkward one. Some title


00:06:48.560 --> 00:06:50.790
disruption events produce a radio flare


00:06:50.800 --> 00:06:53.270
almost immediately. Some produce one


00:06:53.280 --> 00:06:55.990
much later out of nowhere. Sometimes


00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:57.670
years after everyone has stopped paying


00:06:57.680 --> 00:06:59.909
attention. Some appear to produce


00:06:59.919 --> 00:07:02.150
nothing at all. That looked like three


00:07:02.160 --> 00:07:05.270
different phenomena or worse like noise.


00:07:05.280 --> 00:07:07.830
>> And the two outflow picture makes it one


00:07:07.840 --> 00:07:10.469
phenomenon. one phenomenon with two


00:07:10.479 --> 00:07:12.870
stages where whether you see either of


00:07:12.880 --> 00:07:14.710
them depends on when you happen to be


00:07:14.720 --> 00:07:17.189
looking and how the accretion rate was


00:07:17.199 --> 00:07:20.070
falling. The prompt and delayed outflows


00:07:20.080 --> 00:07:22.230
stop being a puzzle and start being a


00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:23.189
prediction.


00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:25.589
>> And Goodwin makes a very practical point


00:07:25.599 --> 00:07:26.710
about that.


00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:28.469
>> She does and it's my favorite part of


00:07:28.479 --> 00:07:31.670
the release. Her line is quote, "Radio


00:07:31.680 --> 00:07:34.150
telescopes are incredibly powerful, but


00:07:34.160 --> 00:07:35.830
knowing when to look is just as


00:07:35.840 --> 00:07:38.469
important as knowing where to look." And


00:07:38.479 --> 00:07:40.870
she goes on, "If we can anticipate when


00:07:40.880 --> 00:07:42.790
a black hole is more likely to launch a


00:07:42.800 --> 00:07:44.790
jet, we can run better targeted


00:07:44.800 --> 00:07:47.589
campaigns, waste fewer observations, and


00:07:47.599 --> 00:07:49.189
improve our chances of catching these


00:07:49.199 --> 00:07:51.589
rare events at the moment they matter


00:07:51.599 --> 00:07:52.550
most,


00:07:52.560 --> 00:07:54.390
>> which is not a small thing when you're


00:07:54.400 --> 00:07:56.390
competing for time on the world's big


00:07:56.400 --> 00:07:57.350
dishes.


00:07:57.360 --> 00:07:59.270
>> It's the difference between a survey and


00:07:59.280 --> 00:08:01.909
a stakeout. And it matters enormously


00:08:01.919 --> 00:08:04.550
for what's coming because the Vera Rubin


00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:06.469
Observatory is about to start finding


00:08:06.479 --> 00:08:09.110
tidal disruption events in numbers we've


00:08:09.120 --> 00:08:11.670
never had before. If you can look at the


00:08:11.680 --> 00:08:13.670
optical light curve and predict roughly


00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:16.070
when the radio outflow should arrive,


00:08:16.080 --> 00:08:18.629
you can have the radio telescopes ready.


00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:20.950
Without that, you're guessing.


00:08:20.960 --> 00:08:23.670
>> And this one is properly ours.


00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:26.230
>> It is led from Curtain University in


00:08:26.240 --> 00:08:29.270
Perth through. And the underlying data


00:08:29.280 --> 00:08:31.189
set is the product of years of


00:08:31.199 --> 00:08:33.670
multi-wavelength campaigns drawing on


00:08:33.680 --> 00:08:35.909
telescopes in Australia, the United


00:08:35.919 --> 00:08:39.029
States, India, South Africa, and in


00:08:39.039 --> 00:08:41.670
space. This is not a single instrument


00:08:41.680 --> 00:08:44.550
result. It's a decade of patient radio


00:08:44.560 --> 00:08:47.430
follow-up on rare events assembled into


00:08:47.440 --> 00:08:49.910
one picture. And it lands in the same


00:08:49.920 --> 00:08:51.990
week that we're talking about the square


00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:54.470
kilometer arrays southern half taking


00:08:54.480 --> 00:08:57.110
shape out in Western Australia,


00:08:57.120 --> 00:08:58.870
>> which is precisely the instrument you'd


00:08:58.880 --> 00:09:00.710
want pointed at the next one.


00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:02.550
>> Two things to keep straight, though.


00:09:02.560 --> 00:09:05.190
>> Yes. The first is that this is a


00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:08.470
threshold, not a switch. saying black


00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:11.590
holes launch outflows at around 2% of


00:09:11.600 --> 00:09:14.389
Eddington is a statement about where the


00:09:14.399 --> 00:09:16.949
transition sits, not a promise that


00:09:16.959 --> 00:09:19.590
every black hole crossing that line will


00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:21.829
produce a jet you can detect. Whether


00:09:21.839 --> 00:09:23.590
you actually see one depends on the


00:09:23.600 --> 00:09:26.710
environment, the geometry, the distance,


00:09:26.720 --> 00:09:28.389
and the luck of having a telescope


00:09:28.399 --> 00:09:30.230
pointed in the right direction.


00:09:30.240 --> 00:09:31.509
>> And the second,


00:09:31.519 --> 00:09:33.990
>> the second is about timing. And we want


00:09:34.000 --> 00:09:35.670
to be straight with you. This was


00:09:35.680 --> 00:09:37.990
published in Nature Astronomy yesterday.


00:09:38.000 --> 00:09:40.870
That's real and the peer review is done.


00:09:40.880 --> 00:09:42.790
But the preprint went up on the archive


00:09:42.800 --> 00:09:45.350
back in February. So while this is newly


00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:47.829
published, it is not newly written. And


00:09:47.839 --> 00:09:49.829
if it feels vaguely familiar to anyone


00:09:49.839 --> 00:09:51.430
who follows the preprint servers


00:09:51.440 --> 00:09:53.430
closely, that's why.


00:09:53.440 --> 00:09:55.269
>> Which is a pattern we've flagged before


00:09:55.279 --> 00:09:56.550
on this show.


00:09:56.560 --> 00:09:59.190
>> It is, and we'll keep flagging it. The


00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:00.630
science is no less good for having


00:10:00.640 --> 00:10:03.430
waited seven months in review, but


00:10:03.440 --> 00:10:05.990
published this week and discovered this


00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:08.310
week are different claims, and we try


00:10:08.320 --> 00:10:10.230
very hard not to blur them.


00:10:10.240 --> 00:10:11.670
>> Longtime listeners will hear some


00:10:11.680 --> 00:10:13.590
threads here, too. We covered a


00:10:13.600 --> 00:10:15.829
wandering black hole revealed by a tidal


00:10:15.839 --> 00:10:19.269
disruption event back in episode 153 and


00:10:19.279 --> 00:10:21.670
a quazar driving turbulence across


00:10:21.680 --> 00:10:25.590
300,000 lightyear in 154. and the


00:10:25.600 --> 00:10:27.350
partial disruptions that fade and come


00:10:27.360 --> 00:10:31.190
back in episode 185. This result is the


00:10:31.200 --> 00:10:33.030
framework those individual objects have


00:10:33.040 --> 00:10:34.389
been waiting for.


00:10:34.399 --> 00:10:37.750
>> Now on to story two. That phrase super


00:10:37.760 --> 00:10:40.230
Edington came up in the lead and it's


00:10:40.240 --> 00:10:42.150
about to come up again because the


00:10:42.160 --> 00:10:44.310
second story this week is also about a


00:10:44.320 --> 00:10:46.470
black hole eating faster than it should


00:10:46.480 --> 00:10:49.590
be able to just 11 billion years


00:10:49.600 --> 00:10:50.630
earlier.


00:10:50.640 --> 00:10:52.310
>> The little red dots.


00:10:52.320 --> 00:10:54.870
>> The little red dots. And if you've been


00:10:54.880 --> 00:10:56.710
with us a while, you'll know these have


00:10:56.720 --> 00:10:58.630
been one of the most irritating things


00:10:58.640 --> 00:11:01.990
the James Web Space Telescope has found.


00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:05.350
Extremely compact, extremely red,


00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:07.190
extremely numerous in the early


00:11:07.200 --> 00:11:09.910
universe. They show the broad hydrogen


00:11:09.920 --> 00:11:12.069
emission lines you'd expect from gas


00:11:12.079 --> 00:11:14.630
whipping around a black hole, but there


00:11:14.640 --> 00:11:16.870
are far too many of them. And the black


00:11:16.880 --> 00:11:19.269
holes implied are far too heavy for the


00:11:19.279 --> 00:11:21.030
galaxies they sit in,


00:11:21.040 --> 00:11:23.030
>> which has produced a small industry of


00:11:23.040 --> 00:11:25.190
explanations. Some of them fairly


00:11:25.200 --> 00:11:26.310
exotic,


00:11:26.320 --> 00:11:30.069
>> some very exotic. So, here's what's new.


00:11:30.079 --> 00:11:33.110
A team led by Sunyan Chon with Shingo


00:11:33.120 --> 00:11:36.870
Hiano, Tommoaki Ishyama, Sukjun Chang,


00:11:36.880 --> 00:11:39.509
and Vulkar Springle published in Nature


00:11:39.519 --> 00:11:42.389
on the 16th of September ran fully


00:11:42.399 --> 00:11:44.949
cosmological radiation hydrodnamic


00:11:44.959 --> 00:11:47.670
simulations of a dense protocluster


00:11:47.680 --> 00:11:50.150
region in the early universe using


00:11:50.160 --> 00:11:53.350
Japan's Aeroi3 supercomput.


00:11:53.360 --> 00:11:55.030
>> And crucially, without putting the


00:11:55.040 --> 00:11:56.630
answer in by hand,


00:11:56.640 --> 00:11:58.949
>> that's the point. They didn't seed the


00:11:58.959 --> 00:12:00.870
simulation with the black holes they


00:12:00.880 --> 00:12:03.509
wanted. They let the physics run. And


00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:06.310
what happens is this. In that intensely


00:12:06.320 --> 00:12:08.949
overdense environment, the giant gas


00:12:08.959 --> 00:12:11.670
clouds are bathed in so much ultraviolet


00:12:11.680 --> 00:12:14.230
radiation that they can't fragment into


00:12:14.240 --> 00:12:17.190
ordinary stars. Normally, a big cloud


00:12:17.200 --> 00:12:19.350
breaks up into lots of little stellar


00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:22.710
nurseries. Here it can't. So instead,


00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:25.829
the whole thing collapses as one object,


00:12:25.839 --> 00:12:28.629
a primordial super massive star, which


00:12:28.639 --> 00:12:30.949
then promptly collapses into a black


00:12:30.959 --> 00:12:32.150
hole.


00:12:32.160 --> 00:12:33.509
>> A heavy seed,


00:12:33.519 --> 00:12:36.230
>> a heavy seed of around a million solar


00:12:36.240 --> 00:12:38.629
masses, which is roughly 10 times


00:12:38.639 --> 00:12:41.269
heavier than theory typically expects.


00:12:41.279 --> 00:12:43.430
And then those seeds develop dense,


00:12:43.440 --> 00:12:46.310
optically thick discs, so thick that


00:12:46.320 --> 00:12:48.470
light bounces around inside them,


00:12:48.480 --> 00:12:50.710
scattering off free electrons on the way


00:12:50.720 --> 00:12:53.670
out. And that electron scattering smears


00:12:53.680 --> 00:12:56.230
the hydrogen emission into exactly the


00:12:56.240 --> 00:12:59.670
broad lines we see in little red dots.


00:12:59.680 --> 00:13:01.590
>> So the broad lines aren't necessarily


00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:03.590
telling you the gas is moving as fast as


00:13:03.600 --> 00:13:04.710
you'd assumed.


00:13:04.720 --> 00:13:07.030
>> That's the elegant bit. Part of the


00:13:07.040 --> 00:13:10.230
width is scattering, not velocity. and


00:13:10.240 --> 00:13:12.870
then sustained super Edington accretion


00:13:12.880 --> 00:13:15.350
drives the thing up to around 30 million


00:13:15.360 --> 00:13:18.150
solar masses by a red shift of eight


00:13:18.160 --> 00:13:20.470
which puts it right in the population of


00:13:20.480 --> 00:13:23.750
over massive quazars web keeps finding.


00:13:23.760 --> 00:13:27.190
So it's one continuous story. Seed dot


00:13:27.200 --> 00:13:30.069
quazar and eventually the super massive


00:13:30.079 --> 00:13:32.790
black holes sitting in galaxies today.


00:13:32.800 --> 00:13:35.509
>> One story with the little red dot phase


00:13:35.519 --> 00:13:38.470
being short and dust shrouded, a stage


00:13:38.480 --> 00:13:41.110
rather than a species. And the timing is


00:13:41.120 --> 00:13:43.670
rather lovely because Nature Astronomy


00:13:43.680 --> 00:13:45.910
published a whole focus issue on little


00:13:45.920 --> 00:13:48.710
red dots the same week, including a


00:13:48.720 --> 00:13:51.269
review by Hannah Ubler on massive black


00:13:51.279 --> 00:13:54.150
holes in the first billion years. The


00:13:54.160 --> 00:13:56.470
field is consolidating and this happens


00:13:56.480 --> 00:13:58.389
to be the week it did it.


00:13:58.399 --> 00:14:00.310
>> One caution though, and it's the same


00:14:00.320 --> 00:14:02.230
one we gave for the black hole feedback


00:14:02.240 --> 00:14:03.590
work last month.


00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:04.629
>> Go on.


00:14:04.639 --> 00:14:06.870
>> This is a simulation that reproduces the


00:14:06.880 --> 00:14:09.030
observations. That's a demonstration


00:14:09.040 --> 00:14:11.269
that the physics is sufficient. You


00:14:11.279 --> 00:14:13.030
don't need anything exotic to get little


00:14:13.040 --> 00:14:16.310
red dots. It is not on its own proof


00:14:16.320 --> 00:14:18.629
that this is what actually happened.


00:14:18.639 --> 00:14:21.269
Other roots may also produce them. What


00:14:21.279 --> 00:14:23.189
would settle it is a direct measurement


00:14:23.199 --> 00:14:25.030
of one of these objects that


00:14:25.040 --> 00:14:27.189
distinguishes scattering broadened lines


00:14:27.199 --> 00:14:29.430
from genuinely fast gas,


00:14:29.440 --> 00:14:31.509
>> which is exactly the kind of thing Web


00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:32.629
could do.


00:14:32.639 --> 00:14:35.030
>> Right. Next up, let's come all the way


00:14:35.040 --> 00:14:38.150
back. about 6,000 kilometers in fact to


00:14:38.160 --> 00:14:39.509
the middle of the Earth,


00:14:39.519 --> 00:14:41.670
>> which is not where you think it is.


00:14:41.680 --> 00:14:43.509
>> It really isn't. And this is one of


00:14:43.519 --> 00:14:45.110
those facts that sounds like a trick


00:14:45.120 --> 00:14:47.350
until you sit with it. There are two


00:14:47.360 --> 00:14:49.350
different centers of the Earth. There's


00:14:49.360 --> 00:14:51.509
the center of figure, the geometric


00:14:51.519 --> 00:14:53.670
middle of the solid planet surface,


00:14:53.680 --> 00:14:56.150
which is essentially fixed. And there's


00:14:56.160 --> 00:14:58.550
the center of mass, the balance point of


00:14:58.560 --> 00:15:00.550
everything the planet is made of.


00:15:00.560 --> 00:15:02.629
>> And the planet is partly made of water


00:15:02.639 --> 00:15:04.310
and air, which move


00:15:04.320 --> 00:15:07.269
>> constantly. Snow falls across Siberia


00:15:07.279 --> 00:15:10.870
and Canada. The Amazon basin floods. The


00:15:10.880 --> 00:15:13.590
monsoon arrives over Southeast Asia.


00:15:13.600 --> 00:15:15.750
Every one of those shifts an enormous


00:15:15.760 --> 00:15:17.590
amount of mass from one part of the


00:15:17.600 --> 00:15:19.829
planet to another. And the balance point


00:15:19.839 --> 00:15:22.230
moves to follow it. So the center of


00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:24.150
mass and the center of figure drift


00:15:24.160 --> 00:15:25.990
apart and back together over the course


00:15:26.000 --> 00:15:26.870
of a year.


00:15:26.880 --> 00:15:28.550
>> And we care because


00:15:28.560 --> 00:15:30.150
>> because the center of mass is what


00:15:30.160 --> 00:15:32.949
satellites orbit. It's the origin of the


00:15:32.959 --> 00:15:35.030
reference frame that underpins satellite


00:15:35.040 --> 00:15:37.990
navigation and every precise elevation


00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:40.069
measurement on the planet. If you're


00:15:40.079 --> 00:15:41.910
wrong about where it is, you're wrong


00:15:41.920 --> 00:15:44.150
about where everything else is.


00:15:44.160 --> 00:15:46.150
>> So, how big is the wobble?


00:15:46.160 --> 00:15:48.629
>> That's the news. The traditional figure


00:15:48.639 --> 00:15:52.069
has been around 11 mm. A team led by


00:15:52.079 --> 00:15:54.230
Donald Argus at NASA's Jet Propulsion


00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:57.110
Laboratory now puts it at roughly 4 to


00:15:57.120 --> 00:16:00.790
5, about half what we thought. published


00:16:00.800 --> 00:16:03.030
in Geoysical Journal International with


00:16:03.040 --> 00:16:04.870
the JPL release on Tuesday.


00:16:04.880 --> 00:16:07.030
>> Half is a big correction for something


00:16:07.040 --> 00:16:09.189
people have been measuring for decades.


00:16:09.199 --> 00:16:11.829
>> It is. And here's how uncertain it's


00:16:11.839 --> 00:16:14.069
been. The last two international


00:16:14.079 --> 00:16:16.870
estimates, one from 2017 and one from


00:16:16.880 --> 00:16:20.069
2023, disagree with each other by about


00:16:20.079 --> 00:16:23.030
7 mm, which is almost as large as the


00:16:23.040 --> 00:16:24.790
entire motion they're trying to measure.


00:16:24.800 --> 00:16:27.110
>> So, the error bar was the same size as


00:16:27.120 --> 00:16:29.430
the signal. Essentially,


00:16:29.440 --> 00:16:31.990
Argus' own line is that the movement now


00:16:32.000 --> 00:16:34.310
looks like about half of what we


00:16:34.320 --> 00:16:37.110
believed 8 years ago, and that the mass


00:16:37.120 --> 00:16:39.269
of water and air sloshing between the


00:16:39.279 --> 00:16:42.550
hemispheres is smaller than we thought.


00:16:42.560 --> 00:16:44.389
>> And where does the movement actually


00:16:44.399 --> 00:16:45.110
come from?


00:16:45.120 --> 00:16:47.749
>> Three main contributors, ocean,


00:16:47.759 --> 00:16:51.670
atmosphere, and land water. In March,


00:16:51.680 --> 00:16:53.749
snow sitting across Eurasia and North


00:16:53.759 --> 00:16:56.790
America pulls the center of mass about 3


00:16:56.800 --> 00:16:59.590
millimeters toward the northern pole.


00:16:59.600 --> 00:17:01.990
Then in April, the Amazon hits its


00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:05.110
annual water maximum, around 2,400


00:17:05.120 --> 00:17:08.630
gatons, and tugs at roughly 2.2 mm


00:17:08.640 --> 00:17:10.710
towards South America. Later in the


00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:12.549
year, monsoon water across Southeast


00:17:12.559 --> 00:17:15.350
Asia peaks at around 600 gatons and


00:17:15.360 --> 00:17:16.870
pulls in its own direction.


00:17:16.880 --> 00:17:18.069
>> None of which wins.


00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:21.029
>> None of which wins. They combine into an


00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:23.669
annual oscillation that never settles.


00:17:23.679 --> 00:17:25.429
And my favorite complication in the


00:17:25.439 --> 00:17:27.829
whole study is this. When you pile


00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:29.590
trillions of tons of water onto a


00:17:29.600 --> 00:17:32.310
continent, the crust flexes under the


00:17:32.320 --> 00:17:34.630
load, which means the ground stations


00:17:34.640 --> 00:17:36.390
you're using to measure the movement are


00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:37.590
themselves moving.


00:17:37.600 --> 00:17:39.430
>> You have to subtract the observatory


00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:41.190
from the observation.


00:17:41.200 --> 00:17:43.590
>> You do. They handled it by combining


00:17:43.600 --> 00:17:45.830
laser ranging to satellites. And that's


00:17:45.840 --> 00:17:48.150
the Legios technique which Australia


00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:49.990
contributes to from the Mount Stromlo


00:17:50.000 --> 00:17:53.029
station outside Canberra with GPS and


00:17:53.039 --> 00:17:55.510
with the Grace follow-on gravity mission


00:17:55.520 --> 00:17:58.230
then modeling the custal deformation out


00:17:58.240 --> 00:17:59.750
>> and the practical end of it.


00:17:59.760 --> 00:18:02.150
>> Felix Lander, one of the co-authors put


00:18:02.160 --> 00:18:03.990
it well. He said that while these


00:18:04.000 --> 00:18:06.470
movements might appear tiny, our modern


00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:08.470
world relies on extremely accurate


00:18:08.480 --> 00:18:10.710
positioning and that by understanding


00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:13.029
what changes the reference system, we


00:18:13.039 --> 00:18:15.270
can build better reference systems. He


00:18:15.280 --> 00:18:16.870
lists the beneficiaries as everything


00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:18.710
from global shipping logistics to


00:18:18.720 --> 00:18:20.470
precision agriculture,


00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:22.950
>> which is a long way from black holes.


00:18:22.960 --> 00:18:25.590
And I rather like that about this job.


00:18:25.600 --> 00:18:26.870
>> Me, too.


00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:29.190
>> Last story. And it's a small, clever


00:18:29.200 --> 00:18:32.150
one. 20 light years away, there's an


00:18:32.160 --> 00:18:36.310
object called SIMP0136.


00:18:36.320 --> 00:18:39.190
It's a brown dwarf, too heavy to be a


00:18:39.200 --> 00:18:41.909
planet in the ordinary sense, too light


00:18:41.919 --> 00:18:44.710
to have ever ignited hydrogen fusion and


00:18:44.720 --> 00:18:47.669
become a star. It sits right on the


00:18:47.679 --> 00:18:51.190
boundary and it has no host star at all.


00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:52.950
It's just drifting,


00:18:52.960 --> 00:18:56.070
>> which makes it unusually easy to study,


00:18:56.080 --> 00:18:59.270
>> enormously easier. Normally, if you want


00:18:59.280 --> 00:19:01.990
to look at a giant planet's atmosphere,


00:19:02.000 --> 00:19:03.909
you're fighting the glare of the star


00:19:03.919 --> 00:19:07.110
next to it. Here there's no star. You


00:19:07.120 --> 00:19:09.590
just point and look. Which is why


00:19:09.600 --> 00:19:12.310
SIMP0136


00:19:12.320 --> 00:19:14.549
has become the reference object for what


00:19:14.559 --> 00:19:16.870
directly imaged giant planets are


00:19:16.880 --> 00:19:18.070
probably like.


00:19:18.080 --> 00:19:19.590
>> And it varies.


00:19:19.600 --> 00:19:22.710
>> It spins once every 2 hours and 25


00:19:22.720 --> 00:19:25.510
minutes. And as it spins, its brightness


00:19:25.520 --> 00:19:28.630
changes by a few%. Different amounts at


00:19:28.640 --> 00:19:30.710
different wavelengths, which tells you


00:19:30.720 --> 00:19:33.669
there's weather, clouds, hotspots,


00:19:33.679 --> 00:19:35.909
chemistry, all of it changing as


00:19:35.919 --> 00:19:38.630
different faces rotate into view. The


00:19:38.640 --> 00:19:39.990
trouble has been that it's looked


00:19:40.000 --> 00:19:42.470
fantastically complicated. Multiple


00:19:42.480 --> 00:19:45.190
mechanisms, multiple layers, all tangled


00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:46.150
together.


00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:47.990
>> So, what did they do differently?


00:19:48.000 --> 00:19:51.110
>> They stopped assuming. Merl Schrader, a


00:19:51.120 --> 00:19:54.150
PhD candidate at Trinity College Dublin


00:19:54.160 --> 00:19:56.310
with colleagues there and elsewhere,


00:19:56.320 --> 00:19:58.390
took one full rotation of web


00:19:58.400 --> 00:20:01.270
spectroscopy and ran principal component


00:20:01.280 --> 00:20:03.909
analysis on it, which is a technique for


00:20:03.919 --> 00:20:06.470
asking a data set the blunt question,


00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:08.789
how many independent things are actually


00:20:08.799 --> 00:20:11.909
changing here, not does my model fit,


00:20:11.919 --> 00:20:14.870
just how many knobs are being turned?


00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:17.029
>> And the answer was


00:20:17.039 --> 00:20:19.909
>> two. Two components are enough to push


00:20:19.919 --> 00:20:22.070
what's left over down to the noise floor


00:20:22.080 --> 00:20:24.070
of the instrument. Which means that


00:20:24.080 --> 00:20:26.390
within what web can detect, there is


00:20:26.400 --> 00:20:28.149
nothing else going on.


00:20:28.159 --> 00:20:29.750
>> And what are the two?


00:20:29.760 --> 00:20:32.390
>> The first is broadband. It moves the


00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:34.470
whole spectrum together and that's


00:20:34.480 --> 00:20:37.190
temperature. The second is chromatic


00:20:37.200 --> 00:20:39.830
wavelength dependent and that traces the


00:20:39.840 --> 00:20:42.310
vertical structure of the clouds, how


00:20:42.320 --> 00:20:45.029
high and how thick they are. And between


00:20:45.039 --> 00:20:47.510
them, those two resolve into three


00:20:47.520 --> 00:20:49.990
recurring conditions. Patches that are


00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:52.310
hotter with thinner cloud, patches that


00:20:52.320 --> 00:20:54.149
are cooler with thick vertically


00:20:54.159 --> 00:20:56.950
extended cloud, and transitional regions


00:20:56.960 --> 00:20:58.230
between the two.


00:20:58.240 --> 00:21:00.149
>> So it looks chaotic and it's actually


00:21:00.159 --> 00:21:01.029
organized.


00:21:01.039 --> 00:21:04.070
>> Lowdimensional is the term. A famously


00:21:04.080 --> 00:21:06.310
messy atmosphere turns out to be running


00:21:06.320 --> 00:21:09.110
on two dials. And the team then went


00:21:09.120 --> 00:21:11.430
further and projected model atmospheres


00:21:11.440 --> 00:21:14.230
into the same mathematical space. and


00:21:14.240 --> 00:21:16.789
found the models largely occupy the same


00:21:16.799 --> 00:21:19.270
territory, which is a decent sign the


00:21:19.280 --> 00:21:21.350
models are capturing the right physics


00:21:21.360 --> 00:21:24.070
rather than accidentally agreeing.


00:21:24.080 --> 00:21:26.070
>> Two notes of care on this one,


00:21:26.080 --> 00:21:26.950
>> please.


00:21:26.960 --> 00:21:28.789
>> The first is that some of the coverage


00:21:28.799 --> 00:21:30.390
has described these patterns as


00:21:30.400 --> 00:21:32.390
persisting over more than a dozen


00:21:32.400 --> 00:21:35.430
rotations. The paper's core analysis is


00:21:35.440 --> 00:21:37.750
one rotation. That's a real and


00:21:37.760 --> 00:21:39.590
interesting result, but a second


00:21:39.600 --> 00:21:41.990
highquality rotation is precisely the


00:21:42.000 --> 00:21:43.669
test that would confirm the patterns


00:21:43.679 --> 00:21:46.070
hold. So, we'll describe it as the test


00:21:46.080 --> 00:21:47.830
rather than the finding.


00:21:47.840 --> 00:21:50.390
>> And the second is our usual one.


00:21:50.400 --> 00:21:52.630
>> The preprint went up in late July, so


00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:54.549
there's about a 7-week gap before the


00:21:54.559 --> 00:21:56.310
journal version and the Trinity release


00:21:56.320 --> 00:21:58.789
this week. Shorter than yesterday's, but


00:21:58.799 --> 00:22:00.070
worth saying.


00:22:00.080 --> 00:22:03.669
>> And one lovely human detail to finish.


00:22:03.679 --> 00:22:06.070
SIMP0136


00:22:06.080 --> 00:22:09.270
is 20 light years away. The web data


00:22:09.280 --> 00:22:12.710
Shraider analyzed was gathered in 2023.


00:22:12.720 --> 00:22:14.710
So the light she was working with left


00:22:14.720 --> 00:22:17.590
that object in the year she was born.


00:22:17.600 --> 00:22:19.029
>> That's a very good reason to go into


00:22:19.039 --> 00:22:20.310
astronomy.


00:22:20.320 --> 00:22:22.950
>> Now we have one more quick one before


00:22:22.960 --> 00:22:24.230
Skywatch.


00:22:24.240 --> 00:22:26.870
>> We do indeed. The sun has gone very


00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:28.230
quiet indeed.


00:22:28.240 --> 00:22:29.510
>> How quiet?


00:22:29.520 --> 00:22:32.149
>> Very nearly blank. As of yesterday,


00:22:32.159 --> 00:22:34.149
there was exactly one numbered active


00:22:34.159 --> 00:22:36.549
region left on the Earth-facing side,


00:22:36.559 --> 00:22:38.630
AR4528,


00:22:38.640 --> 00:22:40.549
and it's rotating out of view as we


00:22:40.559 --> 00:22:43.669
speak. If nothing new emerges behind it,


00:22:43.679 --> 00:22:45.430
we're about to get the sun's first


00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:47.909
spotless day since the 24th of February


00:22:47.919 --> 00:22:49.029
this year.


00:22:49.039 --> 00:22:51.510
>> And February was itself notable.


00:22:51.520 --> 00:22:55.590
February ended a streak of 1,335


00:22:55.600 --> 00:22:57.510
consecutive days with at least one


00:22:57.520 --> 00:23:00.310
sunspot going all the way back to June


00:23:00.320 --> 00:23:01.990
2022.


00:23:02.000 --> 00:23:05.830
Solar cycle 25 peaked in October 2024.


00:23:05.840 --> 00:23:07.669
And this is what the downhill side looks


00:23:07.679 --> 00:23:11.110
like. For scale, the last solar minimum


00:23:11.120 --> 00:23:14.149
between 2018 and 2020 delivered


00:23:14.159 --> 00:23:17.029
something like 700 spotless days.


00:23:17.039 --> 00:23:19.510
>> And minimum itself is still some way


00:23:19.520 --> 00:23:23.270
off. not expected before about 2030. But


00:23:23.280 --> 00:23:25.430
here's the part worth holding on to, and


00:23:25.440 --> 00:23:27.110
it connects two stories we've run


00:23:27.120 --> 00:23:29.990
recently. A quiet sun is not a harmless


00:23:30.000 --> 00:23:32.870
sun. It's a differently hazardous one.


00:23:32.880 --> 00:23:35.350
We talked in episode 192 about the


00:23:35.360 --> 00:23:37.510
energy a big active region can store for


00:23:37.520 --> 00:23:40.630
a super flare. And in 193 about cosmic


00:23:40.640 --> 00:23:43.590
radiation at aviation altitudes. And


00:23:43.600 --> 00:23:45.909
that second one runs the opposite way.


00:23:45.919 --> 00:23:48.230
When the sun is quiet, its magnetic


00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:50.070
field does less to shield the inner


00:23:50.080 --> 00:23:52.870
solar system. So, galactic cosmic rays


00:23:52.880 --> 00:23:55.669
get through more easily. Radiation dose


00:23:55.679 --> 00:23:58.310
at cruising altitude runs 40 to 60%


00:23:58.320 --> 00:24:01.270
higher at solar minimum than at maximum.


00:24:01.280 --> 00:24:03.669
>> Same dial, opposite end.


00:24:03.679 --> 00:24:06.310
>> Fewer auroras, more cosmic rays.


00:24:06.320 --> 00:24:08.549
>> And that's a very good excuse to talk


00:24:08.559 --> 00:24:11.350
about the sky because tonight there is


00:24:11.360 --> 00:24:13.269
something genuinely worth walking


00:24:13.279 --> 00:24:15.510
outside for. and it works from


00:24:15.520 --> 00:24:17.029
everywhere.


00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:18.549
>> Venus.


00:24:18.559 --> 00:24:21.110
>> Venus at greatest brilliancancy.


00:24:21.120 --> 00:24:24.070
Tonight, the 18th of September, Venus


00:24:24.080 --> 00:24:25.990
reaches its peak brightness for this


00:24:26.000 --> 00:24:28.950
entire evening apparition, magnitude


00:24:28.960 --> 00:24:31.029
minus4.8.


00:24:31.039 --> 00:24:32.950
There is nothing else in the night sky


00:24:32.960 --> 00:24:35.269
that comes close except the moon.


00:24:35.279 --> 00:24:37.029
>> And the reason it peaks tonight rather


00:24:37.039 --> 00:24:39.590
than when Venus is full is genuinely


00:24:39.600 --> 00:24:41.110
counterintuitive.


00:24:41.120 --> 00:24:43.110
It's the best bit of physics in the


00:24:43.120 --> 00:24:45.830
whole segment. Venus is not full


00:24:45.840 --> 00:24:49.350
tonight. It's a crescent only about 26%


00:24:49.360 --> 00:24:52.230
lit. But because it's swinging in closer


00:24:52.240 --> 00:24:54.870
to us, that crescent has swollen to


00:24:54.880 --> 00:24:58.390
nearly 40 arcsec across. Brightness is


00:24:58.400 --> 00:25:00.710
lit fraction multiplied by apparent


00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:03.430
size. And right now the disc is growing


00:25:03.440 --> 00:25:05.750
faster than the illuminated fraction is


00:25:05.760 --> 00:25:06.789
shrinking.


00:25:06.799 --> 00:25:09.510
>> A big thin crescent beats a small full


00:25:09.520 --> 00:25:12.789
disc. every time. And if you have


00:25:12.799 --> 00:25:15.269
binoculars, hold them steady and you'll


00:25:15.279 --> 00:25:18.310
actually see the crescent shape. At 40


00:25:18.320 --> 00:25:21.029
arcsec, it's within reach, which


00:25:21.039 --> 00:25:22.950
surprises people because we don't think


00:25:22.960 --> 00:25:25.669
of Venus as something you can resolve.


00:25:25.679 --> 00:25:27.269
>> And if you see a different date quoted


00:25:27.279 --> 00:25:30.230
somewhere, some listings say the 22nd.


00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:32.950
Both are defensible. The peak is very


00:25:32.960 --> 00:25:35.990
flat. Between tonight and the 22nd, the


00:25:36.000 --> 00:25:40.390
lit fraction drops from about 26% to 23,


00:25:40.400 --> 00:25:42.390
while the disc grows from roughly 40


00:25:42.400 --> 00:25:46.470
arcsec to 42. And those two changes very


00:25:46.480 --> 00:25:48.470
nearly cancel. So, you're not going to


00:25:48.480 --> 00:25:50.870
miss it by going out on the wrong night.


00:25:50.880 --> 00:25:53.510
>> Now, how well you do tonight depends


00:25:53.520 --> 00:25:55.909
enormously on where you're standing, and


00:25:55.919 --> 00:25:58.070
the gap is dramatic.


00:25:58.080 --> 00:26:00.710
>> From Sydney, this is a spectacle. Sunset


00:26:00.720 --> 00:26:03.830
is at4 to 6 and at that moment Venus is


00:26:03.840 --> 00:26:06.950
39° above the western horizon. That's


00:26:06.960 --> 00:26:09.430
more than a third of the way up the sky.


00:26:09.440 --> 00:26:11.830
It doesn't set until just before 9:00,


00:26:11.840 --> 00:26:14.070
which gives you 3 hours and 13 minutes


00:26:14.080 --> 00:26:17.190
of Venus after sunset. You do not need a


00:26:17.200 --> 00:26:20.149
clear horizon. You do not need to hurry.


00:26:20.159 --> 00:26:22.549
>> And from the northern hemisphere, it's a


00:26:22.559 --> 00:26:25.269
different evening entirely. From Los


00:26:25.279 --> 00:26:28.950
Angeles, sunset is at 10 to 7 and Venus


00:26:28.960 --> 00:26:32.789
is 14° up. It sets an hour and 19


00:26:32.799 --> 00:26:35.590
minutes after the sun. From New York,


00:26:35.600 --> 00:26:39.350
10° up, 1 hour and 3 minutes. From


00:26:39.360 --> 00:26:43.590
London, 3 1/2° at sunset and gone 28


00:26:43.600 --> 00:26:44.789
minutes later,


00:26:44.799 --> 00:26:47.190
>> which is not Venus being fainter. It's


00:26:47.200 --> 00:26:49.269
exactly as bright everywhere. It's the


00:26:49.279 --> 00:26:50.470
geometry.


00:26:50.480 --> 00:26:53.350
>> It's the tilt of the ecliptic. At this


00:26:53.360 --> 00:26:55.110
time of year, the plane of the solar


00:26:55.120 --> 00:26:57.510
system stands almost vertically out of


00:26:57.520 --> 00:26:59.590
the western horizon at dusk from the


00:26:59.600 --> 00:27:02.149
southern hemisphere. So anything on that


00:27:02.159 --> 00:27:04.549
plane climbs steeply and takes a long


00:27:04.559 --> 00:27:06.710
time to set. From the northern


00:27:06.720 --> 00:27:09.510
hemisphere in September, that same plane


00:27:09.520 --> 00:27:11.750
lies down almost flat against the


00:27:11.760 --> 00:27:14.310
horizon and everything on it skims


00:27:14.320 --> 00:27:16.149
sideways and sets quickly.


00:27:16.159 --> 00:27:18.310
>> So northern listeners, here's the


00:27:18.320 --> 00:27:20.710
practical version. Find a spot with a


00:27:20.720 --> 00:27:24.070
genuinely clear, flat western horizon.


00:27:24.080 --> 00:27:27.190
No trees, no buildings. Start looking 20


00:27:27.200 --> 00:27:29.110
minutes after sunset and don't leave it


00:27:29.120 --> 00:27:31.590
much past 45. It'll be the brightest


00:27:31.600 --> 00:27:33.190
thing in that part of the sky by an


00:27:33.200 --> 00:27:35.350
enormous margin, so you won't be in any


00:27:35.360 --> 00:27:36.789
doubt once you've got it.


00:27:36.799 --> 00:27:39.750
>> And a bonus for the south, Mercury is up


00:27:39.760 --> 00:27:43.190
there, too. From Sydney, Mercury is 16


00:27:43.200 --> 00:27:46.070
degrees above the horizon at sunset and


00:27:46.080 --> 00:27:48.789
doesn't set for an hour and 20 minutes,


00:27:48.799 --> 00:27:50.789
which for Mercury is a comfortable


00:27:50.799 --> 00:27:53.510
viewing window. From Los Angeles, it's


00:27:53.520 --> 00:27:58.549
9° and 43 minutes. From London, 4° and


00:27:58.559 --> 00:28:01.350
26 minutes. That one really is a


00:28:01.360 --> 00:28:03.190
southern target this week.


00:28:03.200 --> 00:28:05.029
>> And then there's the moon, which is


00:28:05.039 --> 00:28:07.350
doing something rather precise tonight.


00:28:07.360 --> 00:28:10.230
>> First quarter, and it's exact. The moon


00:28:10.240 --> 00:28:13.669
reaches first quarter at 20:43 universal


00:28:13.679 --> 00:28:16.310
time tonight. That's quarter to 5 on


00:28:16.320 --> 00:28:19.510
Friday afternoon in New York,4 to 2 in


00:28:19.520 --> 00:28:22.789
Los Angeles to 10 on Friday evening in


00:28:22.799 --> 00:28:26.389
London. And for Australia, 20 to 7 on


00:28:26.399 --> 00:28:27.669
Saturday morning.


00:28:27.679 --> 00:28:29.669
>> And from Sydney tonight, the moon is


00:28:29.679 --> 00:28:32.789
very nearly overhead. 82 degrees up at


00:28:32.799 --> 00:28:34.310
sunset, which is close enough to


00:28:34.320 --> 00:28:35.669
straight up that you'll find yourself


00:28:35.679 --> 00:28:37.590
leaning back to look at it. which


00:28:37.600 --> 00:28:40.070
matters because tomorrow night, Saturday


00:28:40.080 --> 00:28:42.950
the 19th, is international observe the


00:28:42.960 --> 00:28:44.070
moon night.


00:28:44.080 --> 00:28:45.830
>> And the timing of that is not an


00:28:45.840 --> 00:28:47.909
accident. It's deliberately scheduled


00:28:47.919 --> 00:28:50.230
near first quarter because first quarter


00:28:50.240 --> 00:28:51.990
is when the moon is at its most


00:28:52.000 --> 00:28:54.630
interesting through any optical aid.


00:28:54.640 --> 00:28:57.029
Along the terminator, the line dividing


00:28:57.039 --> 00:28:59.350
day from night, the sun is striking the


00:28:59.360 --> 00:29:01.669
surface at a grazing angle. So every


00:29:01.679 --> 00:29:03.750
crater rim and mountain throws a long


00:29:03.760 --> 00:29:06.149
shadow across the ground behind it. A


00:29:06.159 --> 00:29:09.190
full moon looks flat. A half moon looks


00:29:09.200 --> 00:29:10.630
three-dimensional.


00:29:10.640 --> 00:29:12.950
>> Completely three-dimensional. Run the


00:29:12.960 --> 00:29:14.630
terminator with even a small pair of


00:29:14.640 --> 00:29:16.789
binoculars and the whole landscape


00:29:16.799 --> 00:29:19.350
stands up out of the surface. If you've


00:29:19.360 --> 00:29:20.870
only ever looked at a full moon and


00:29:20.880 --> 00:29:22.870
found it disappointing, this is the


00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:25.669
night to try again. NASA's own event is


00:29:25.679 --> 00:29:27.590
at the US Space and Rocket Center in


00:29:27.600 --> 00:29:29.750
Huntsville, Alabama. But the whole point


00:29:29.760 --> 00:29:32.070
is that it's global. You just need to go


00:29:32.080 --> 00:29:33.190
outside.


00:29:33.200 --> 00:29:35.350
>> And to balance the ledger because the


00:29:35.360 --> 00:29:37.510
south has had the better of the evening.


00:29:37.520 --> 00:29:39.990
The morning sky belongs decisively to


00:29:40.000 --> 00:29:40.950
the north.


00:29:40.960 --> 00:29:43.510
>> It does. Mars and Jupiter are both


00:29:43.520 --> 00:29:45.830
climbing in the pre-dawn east. And the


00:29:45.840 --> 00:29:47.750
same ecliptic geometry that flattened


00:29:47.760 --> 00:29:50.070
Venus for northern viewers works the


00:29:50.080 --> 00:29:52.310
other way around before sunrise. At


00:29:52.320 --> 00:29:54.950
nautical dawn tomorrow morning, Mars is


00:29:54.960 --> 00:29:58.230
48° up from Los Angeles and 46 from New


00:29:58.240 --> 00:30:01.909
York and 41 from London. Avery and from


00:30:01.919 --> 00:30:02.870
Sydney,


00:30:02.880 --> 00:30:05.830
>> 20°. So that's very much your sky, not


00:30:05.840 --> 00:30:09.510
ours. Jupiter is 26° up from Los Angeles


00:30:09.520 --> 00:30:10.950
and 9 from Sydney.


00:30:10.960 --> 00:30:13.590
>> And those two are closing on each other.


00:30:13.600 --> 00:30:16.789
They're about 23° apart this morning. By


00:30:16.799 --> 00:30:20.149
midocctober, that's down to 12. And by


00:30:20.159 --> 00:30:22.389
the middle of November, they'll be a


00:30:22.399 --> 00:30:24.870
little over a degree apart. Close enough


00:30:24.880 --> 00:30:26.870
to cover with a fingertip at arms


00:30:26.880 --> 00:30:31.029
length. That's the one to diarize.


00:30:31.039 --> 00:30:33.269
Saturn, meanwhile, is up essentially all


00:30:33.279 --> 00:30:35.430
night from everywhere. It doesn't set


00:30:35.440 --> 00:30:37.190
until nearly 7 in the morning from


00:30:37.200 --> 00:30:39.510
Sydney and just before 8 from Los


00:30:39.520 --> 00:30:41.669
Angeles. and it's building toward


00:30:41.679 --> 00:30:44.149
opposition on the 4th of October when


00:30:44.159 --> 00:30:46.310
the disc will be about 19 and a half


00:30:46.320 --> 00:30:49.750
arcsec across with the rings roughly 7°


00:30:49.760 --> 00:30:51.430
open


00:30:51.440 --> 00:30:53.990
>> and the equinox next week


00:30:54.000 --> 00:30:55.750
>> which we'll flag carefully because we


00:30:55.760 --> 00:30:57.590
got this slightly wrong in an earlier


00:30:57.600 --> 00:31:00.230
episode and corrected it. The September


00:31:00.240 --> 00:31:03.510
equinox is a single instant, not a day.


00:31:03.520 --> 00:31:05.669
5 minutes past midnight universal time


00:31:05.679 --> 00:31:08.230
on the 23rd. That's the evening of the


00:31:08.240 --> 00:31:10.870
22nd across the Americas and midm


00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:13.350
morning on the 23rd in Australia. So,


00:31:13.360 --> 00:31:15.190
the date depends entirely on where


00:31:15.200 --> 00:31:16.549
you're standing.


00:31:16.559 --> 00:31:18.470
>> And one last thing which follows


00:31:18.480 --> 00:31:20.389
directly from that quick hit about the


00:31:20.399 --> 00:31:23.110
blank sun because every time we mention


00:31:23.120 --> 00:31:25.830
sunspots, people quite reasonably want


00:31:25.840 --> 00:31:27.669
to go and look.


00:31:27.679 --> 00:31:30.310
>> And you can, but never ever with


00:31:30.320 --> 00:31:32.549
unprotected eyes and never through


00:31:32.559 --> 00:31:34.630
binoculars or a telescope that isn't


00:31:34.640 --> 00:31:37.110
purpose-built for it. The only safe way


00:31:37.120 --> 00:31:39.430
to look directly at the sun is through


00:31:39.440 --> 00:31:41.509
filters certified to the international


00:31:41.519 --> 00:31:45.669
standard ISO12312-2.


00:31:45.679 --> 00:31:48.310
That's eclipse glasses or a proper solar


00:31:48.320 --> 00:31:49.830
filter fitted over the front of the


00:31:49.840 --> 00:31:53.110
instrument. Never on the eyepiece end.


00:31:53.120 --> 00:31:55.750
>> And ordinary sunglasses are not solar


00:31:55.760 --> 00:31:58.470
filters. Neither is smoked glass,


00:31:58.480 --> 00:32:01.750
exposed film, a CD, or stacking several


00:32:01.760 --> 00:32:04.149
pairs of sunglasses together.


00:32:04.159 --> 00:32:06.070
>> None of those are safe. Check your


00:32:06.080 --> 00:32:09.909
eclipse glasses for the ISO12312-2


00:32:09.919 --> 00:32:11.830
marking. And if they're scratched,


00:32:11.840 --> 00:32:13.190
punctured, or you can't find the


00:32:13.200 --> 00:32:15.830
marking, don't use them. The safest


00:32:15.840 --> 00:32:18.070
option of all, and honestly the best one


00:32:18.080 --> 00:32:21.110
for a group, is projection. Put the


00:32:21.120 --> 00:32:23.029
sun's image onto a white card and


00:32:23.039 --> 00:32:24.549
everybody can look at once without


00:32:24.559 --> 00:32:26.389
anyone looking up.


00:32:26.399 --> 00:32:28.470
>> Although this week there may be nothing


00:32:28.480 --> 00:32:31.190
to see, which is rather the point.


00:32:31.200 --> 00:32:33.110
>> That's Astronomy Daily for Friday the


00:32:33.120 --> 00:32:35.350
18th of September. Everything we've


00:32:35.360 --> 00:32:37.190
talked about today, the papers, the


00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:39.750
DOIs, the full skywatch figures for all


00:32:39.760 --> 00:32:42.710
four cities is in the show notes and on


00:32:42.720 --> 00:32:45.990
the website at astronomyaily.io


00:32:46.000 --> 00:32:47.990
>> where you'll also find the full back


00:32:48.000 --> 00:32:50.789
catalog, the daily newsletter, and the


00:32:50.799 --> 00:32:53.509
contact form. And do use that contact


00:32:53.519 --> 00:32:55.909
form. Some of our favorite segments this


00:32:55.919 --> 00:32:58.070
year have come from listener questions,


00:32:58.080 --> 00:33:00.549
and we read every one of them.


00:33:00.559 --> 00:33:03.190
>> Go out tonight and look west. Venus will


00:33:03.200 --> 00:33:05.590
not be this bright again this year.


00:33:05.600 --> 00:33:08.389
>> And tomorrow night, look at the moon.


00:33:08.399 --> 00:33:09.909
>> We'll be back on the weekend with this


00:33:09.919 --> 00:33:12.389
week's weekend rap. Until then, clear


00:33:12.399 --> 00:33:24.389
skies.


00:33:24.399 --> 00:33:28.200
Stories told.