The Unifying Mystery of Black Hole Jets: Stellar and Supermassive Connections
SHOW NOTES Black hole jets follow one universal rule Adelle Goodwin (Curtin University / ICRAR, Forrest Research Foundation Fellow) and Andrew Mummery (Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton) show that supermassive black holes launch their outflows at the same critical accretion rate as stellar-mass black holes — about 2% of the Eddington limit — making accretion-outflow coupling scale-invariant across seven orders of magnitude in mass. Nature Astronomy, 17 September 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41550-026-02951-1 JWST's Little Red Dots are black hole seeds caught mid-growth Sunmyon Chon, Shingo Hirano, Tomoaki Ishiyama, Seok-Jun Chang and Volker Springel ran fully cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations on Japan's ATERUI III supercomputer and produced heavy black hole seeds of about a million solar masses, whose optically thick discs generate exactly the broad hydrogen emission seen in Little Red Dots. Nature 657, 621-625, 16 September 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10985-8 Earth's centre of mass moves about half as far as we thought Donald Argus, Felix Landerer and colleagues at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the University of Nevada, the University of Montana and the Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, revise the annual oscillation between Earth's centre of mass and its centre of figure down from roughly 11 millimetres to about 4 to 5.5. Geophysical Journal International, ggag314. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggag314 Two numbers explain the weather on a world 20 light-years away Merle Schrader and colleagues at Trinity College Dublin applied principal component analysis to one rotation of JWST spectroscopy of the brown dwarf SIMP 0136 and found two components — temperature and vertical cloud structure — account for all the detectable variability. Astronomy & Astrophysics, open access. DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202660109 The Sun goes blank With only active region AR4528 left on the Earth-facing disc and rotating out of view, the Sun was on the verge of its first spotless day since 24 February 2026 — which itself ended a 1,335-day run of continuous sunspot activity stretching back to June 2022. Skywatch: Venus at greatest brilliancy, first quarter Moon, Observe the Moon Night Venus reaches greatest brilliancy on 18 September at magnitude -4.8; the Moon reaches exact first quarter at 20:43 UTC the same day, setting up International Observe the Moon Night on Saturday 19 September. All times and altitudes in this segment were computed for Sydney, Los Angeles, New York and London. SKYWATCH — COMPUTED REFERENCE Computed in-session with PyEphem 4.2.1. Local times. Sydney on AEST (UTC+10); Los Angeles PDT; New York EDT; London BST. City Sunset Venus alt Venus sets Mercury Mars pre-dawn Sydney 17:45 39.2 deg 20:58 (3h13m) 16.4 deg (sets 1h20m) 20.4 deg Los Angeles 18:52 14.3 deg 20:10 (1h19m) 8.8 deg (sets 0h43m) 48.4 deg New York 18:56 10.3 deg 19:59 (1h03m) 7.0 deg (sets 0h38m) 46.1 deg London 19:04 3.6 deg 19:32 (0h28m) 3.9 deg (sets 0h26m) 40.6 deg · Venus greatest brilliancy: 18 September 2026, magnitude -4.8. Disc 39.6 arcsec, 26% illuminated. · By 22 September the disc has grown to 42.3 arcsec but the lit fraction has fallen to 22.7% — the two changes nearly cancel, which is why listings disagree on the date. The peak is genuinely flat. · Moon reaches exact first quarter 18 September at 20:43 UTC = 06:43 AEST Sat 19 Sep / 16:43 EDT Fri 18 / 13:43 PDT Fri 18 / 21:43 BST Fri 18. · Moon altitude at sunset: Sydney 81.6 deg (near overhead), Los Angeles 27.1 deg, New York 20.4 deg, London 9.4 deg. · International Observe the Moon Night: Saturday 19 September 2026. NASA event at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center, Huntsville, 5:30-8:00pm CST. · Pre-dawn Sat 19 Sep at nautical dawn — Jupiter: Los Angeles 26.4 deg, New York 25.1 deg, London 21.9 deg, Sydney 8.9 deg. · Mars-Jupiter separation: 22.9 deg on 18 Sep, 12.0 deg mid-October, 1.2 deg mid-November 2026. · Saturn is up essentially all night; sets 06:47 Sydney, 07:55 Los Angeles. Opposition 4 October 2026, disc 19.6 arcsec, rings approx 7 deg open. · September equinox: a single instant, 00:05:09 UTC on 23 September 2026 — evening of the 22nd in the Americas, mid-morning of the 23rd in Australia. · All figures computed in-session with PyEphem 4.2.1 for the four reference cities. Sydney is on AEST (UTC+10); daylight saving begins 4 October.
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Kind: captions
Language: en
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Take a black hole 10 times the mass of
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the sun. Now take one 10 million times
00:00:05.759 --> 00:00:07.829
heavier. The kind that sits in the
00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:10.150
middle of a galaxy and anchors a 100
00:00:10.160 --> 00:00:13.509
billion stars. Those two objects have
00:00:13.519 --> 00:00:16.150
almost nothing in common. Different
00:00:16.160 --> 00:00:18.310
sizes, different neighborhoods,
00:00:18.320 --> 00:00:20.950
different life stories. One of them you
00:00:20.960 --> 00:00:23.509
could fit inside a city. The other one
00:00:23.519 --> 00:00:25.750
you could pour the entire inner solar
00:00:25.760 --> 00:00:28.870
system into and still have room. And
00:00:28.880 --> 00:00:31.349
this week, a team led out of Perth has
00:00:31.359 --> 00:00:33.110
shown that when it comes to the single
00:00:33.120 --> 00:00:35.750
most dramatic thing a black hole does,
00:00:35.760 --> 00:00:38.069
firing a jet of material out into space
00:00:38.079 --> 00:00:40.389
at close to the speed of light, both of
00:00:40.399 --> 00:00:43.430
them wait for exactly the same moment.
00:00:43.440 --> 00:00:46.790
>> Same trigger, same threshold, seven
00:00:46.800 --> 00:00:49.190
orders of magnitude apart.
00:00:49.200 --> 00:00:51.430
>> Hello and welcome to Astronomy Daily.
00:00:51.440 --> 00:00:52.709
I'm Anna.
00:00:52.719 --> 00:00:55.750
>> And I'm Avery. It's Friday, the 18th of
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September, 2026, and this is episode
00:00:59.840 --> 00:01:01.270
197.
00:01:01.280 --> 00:01:02.630
>> So, let's start with the thing that
00:01:02.640 --> 00:01:05.270
makes this hard. Black holes don't emit
00:01:05.280 --> 00:01:07.830
anything themselves. What we actually
00:01:07.840 --> 00:01:10.789
see is the material falling in. It piles
00:01:10.799 --> 00:01:13.109
up into a disc. It heats up through
00:01:13.119 --> 00:01:15.109
friction until it's glowing across the
00:01:15.119 --> 00:01:17.270
electromagnetic spectrum. And then
00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:19.830
sometimes, not always, but sometimes,
00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:21.670
some of it gets flung back out in a
00:01:21.680 --> 00:01:24.310
narrow, tightly columnated jet.
00:01:24.320 --> 00:01:26.230
>> And the question of when you get a jet
00:01:26.240 --> 00:01:28.390
and when you don't, has been open for
00:01:28.400 --> 00:01:29.830
decades.
00:01:29.840 --> 00:01:32.630
>> It has. But for one class of black hole,
00:01:32.640 --> 00:01:34.950
we actually have a very good answer.
00:01:34.960 --> 00:01:37.510
Stellar mass black holes, the ones left
00:01:37.520 --> 00:01:39.590
behind when a massive star collapses,
00:01:39.600 --> 00:01:42.310
maybe 5 to 20 times the sun's mass,
00:01:42.320 --> 00:01:44.710
often sit in binary systems, pulling
00:01:44.720 --> 00:01:47.429
material off a companion star. And those
00:01:47.439 --> 00:01:50.550
systems cycle. They brighten, they fade,
00:01:50.560 --> 00:01:52.310
they go through what astronomers call
00:01:52.320 --> 00:01:54.789
state transitions. And they do it over
00:01:54.799 --> 00:01:56.710
weeks and months,
00:01:56.720 --> 00:01:58.550
>> which means we've watched the whole
00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:02.550
process start to finish many times over.
00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:05.190
many many times. And what we've learned
00:02:05.200 --> 00:02:07.350
is that the jets switch on and off at
00:02:07.360 --> 00:02:09.669
particular points in that cycle. And
00:02:09.679 --> 00:02:11.670
those points are tied to how fast the
00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:14.070
black hole is feeding, measured against
00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:16.790
something called the Edington limit.
00:02:16.800 --> 00:02:19.110
>> And this is worth spelling out because
00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:21.830
everything else today rests on it.
00:02:21.840 --> 00:02:24.710
>> It really does. So material falling
00:02:24.720 --> 00:02:27.110
toward a black hole gets extremely hot
00:02:27.120 --> 00:02:29.510
and hot material radiates. That
00:02:29.520 --> 00:02:32.229
radiation pushes outward. gravity pulls
00:02:32.239 --> 00:02:34.710
inward. The Edington limit is the point
00:02:34.720 --> 00:02:36.630
where those two balance, where the
00:02:36.640 --> 00:02:38.550
radiation coming off the infalling
00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:41.270
material is pushing outward just as hard
00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:43.190
as the black hole's gravity is pulling
00:02:43.200 --> 00:02:44.309
in.
00:02:44.319 --> 00:02:46.550
>> So if you try to feed a black hole
00:02:46.560 --> 00:02:49.030
faster than that, the radiation starts
00:02:49.040 --> 00:02:50.390
blowing the meal away.
00:02:50.400 --> 00:02:54.309
>> Anna, roughly, yes. Though nature has
00:02:54.319 --> 00:02:56.070
ways around it, and we'll come back to
00:02:56.080 --> 00:02:57.990
that. The useful thing about the
00:02:58.000 --> 00:02:59.830
Edington limit is that it scales with
00:02:59.840 --> 00:03:02.390
mass. A black hole a million times
00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:04.229
heavier has a limit a million times
00:03:04.239 --> 00:03:06.390
higher. So instead of talking about
00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:08.869
absolute brightness, astronomers talk in
00:03:08.879 --> 00:03:12.309
fractions of Edington, 10% of Edington,
00:03:12.319 --> 00:03:15.190
1% of Edington. And that gives you a way
00:03:15.200 --> 00:03:17.030
to compare black holes of wildly
00:03:17.040 --> 00:03:19.509
different sizes on the same scale.
00:03:19.519 --> 00:03:21.670
>> Which brings us to the super massive
00:03:21.680 --> 00:03:24.070
black holes. And the reason this has
00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:25.830
been so stubborn,
00:03:25.840 --> 00:03:28.390
>> the reason is simply time. Everything
00:03:28.400 --> 00:03:30.470
about an accretion flow scales with the
00:03:30.480 --> 00:03:32.710
mass of the black hole and that includes
00:03:32.720 --> 00:03:35.350
how fast it evolves. A stellar mass
00:03:35.360 --> 00:03:38.229
system cycles in months. A super massive
00:03:38.239 --> 00:03:41.030
black hole in an ordinary active galaxy
00:03:41.040 --> 00:03:42.550
takes something on the order of
00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:45.270
thousands of years to do the equivalent.
00:03:45.280 --> 00:03:48.070
>> So you can't watch one. You get a single
00:03:48.080 --> 00:03:51.350
frame of a film that runs for millennia.
00:03:51.360 --> 00:03:53.830
>> Exactly that. You can look at thousands
00:03:53.840 --> 00:03:56.070
of active galaxies and take a census.
00:03:56.080 --> 00:03:57.990
Here's one with a jet. Here's one
00:03:58.000 --> 00:04:00.229
without. But you can never watch a
00:04:00.239 --> 00:04:02.229
single object cross a threshold and see
00:04:02.239 --> 00:04:04.710
what happens. Which means the critical
00:04:04.720 --> 00:04:06.390
accretion rates that we know so
00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.869
precisely for stellar mass black holes
00:04:08.879 --> 00:04:10.630
have simply been unmeasurable for the
00:04:10.640 --> 00:04:12.070
big ones.
00:04:12.080 --> 00:04:14.229
>> Unless something gives a super massive
00:04:14.239 --> 00:04:17.749
black hole a sudden well-defined meal.
00:04:17.759 --> 00:04:20.390
>> And that's the move. Tidal disruption
00:04:20.400 --> 00:04:23.189
events. A star wanders too close to the
00:04:23.199 --> 00:04:24.950
super massive black hole at the center
00:04:24.960 --> 00:04:27.110
of its galaxy. The difference in
00:04:27.120 --> 00:04:28.950
gravitational pull across the star
00:04:28.960 --> 00:04:31.189
exceeds what's holding the star together
00:04:31.199 --> 00:04:33.670
and it comes apart. Roughly half the
00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:35.670
debris gets flung away and the other
00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:37.590
half falls back and builds a brand new
00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:40.390
accretion disc from nothing.
00:04:40.400 --> 00:04:43.189
>> And that one plays out fast,
00:04:43.199 --> 00:04:46.070
>> years, not millennia. You get to watch
00:04:46.080 --> 00:04:48.230
an accretion flow around a super massive
00:04:48.240 --> 00:04:52.070
black hole be born, rise, peak, and
00:04:52.080 --> 00:04:54.469
decline. And you can do it inside a
00:04:54.479 --> 00:04:56.870
single research career. That is the
00:04:56.880 --> 00:04:59.670
entire reason this result was possible.
00:04:59.680 --> 00:05:02.629
>> So Dr. Adele Goodwin at Curtain
00:05:02.639 --> 00:05:04.950
University's International Center for
00:05:04.960 --> 00:05:08.070
Radioastronomy Research in Perth, who's
00:05:08.080 --> 00:05:10.230
also a forest research foundation
00:05:10.240 --> 00:05:13.350
fellow, working with Dr. Andrew Mumry at
00:05:13.360 --> 00:05:15.430
the Institute for Advanced Study in
00:05:15.440 --> 00:05:18.310
Princeton, published in Nature Astronomy
00:05:18.320 --> 00:05:20.870
yesterday, Thursday the 17th of
00:05:20.880 --> 00:05:21.990
September.
00:05:22.000 --> 00:05:23.670
>> And what they show is that title
00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:25.510
disruption events actually launch
00:05:25.520 --> 00:05:28.070
outflows twice in two physically
00:05:28.080 --> 00:05:31.110
distinct episodes. The first comes early
00:05:31.120 --> 00:05:32.790
while the black hole is feeding above
00:05:32.800 --> 00:05:35.670
its Edington limit. That brief ferocious
00:05:35.680 --> 00:05:37.590
phase right after the star comes apart
00:05:37.600 --> 00:05:39.430
when there's far more material trying to
00:05:39.440 --> 00:05:41.430
get in than the black hole can
00:05:41.440 --> 00:05:43.029
comfortably swallow.
00:05:43.039 --> 00:05:45.029
>> The prompt outflow,
00:05:45.039 --> 00:05:47.590
>> the prompt one. And then later,
00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:49.990
sometimes months or years later, there's
00:05:50.000 --> 00:05:53.029
a second separate outflow. And that one
00:05:53.039 --> 00:05:54.870
arrives as the accretion rate falls
00:05:54.880 --> 00:05:57.909
through a specific value about 2% of the
00:05:57.919 --> 00:05:58.870
Edington limit.
00:05:58.880 --> 00:06:02.950
>> 2%. And that number is familiar. That
00:06:02.960 --> 00:06:05.110
number is the same critical accretion
00:06:05.120 --> 00:06:07.350
rate at which stellar mass black holes
00:06:07.360 --> 00:06:09.029
in binaries make their state
00:06:09.039 --> 00:06:11.590
transitions. The same value we've
00:06:11.600 --> 00:06:13.749
measured over and over in objects
00:06:13.759 --> 00:06:16.230
millions of times smaller. Goodwin and
00:06:16.240 --> 00:06:17.990
Mumy are arguing that the coupling
00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:20.629
between how a black hole feeds and how
00:06:20.639 --> 00:06:23.270
it throws material back out is scale
00:06:23.280 --> 00:06:25.430
invariant. That it doesn't care about
00:06:25.440 --> 00:06:26.550
mass at all
00:06:26.560 --> 00:06:29.029
>> across roughly seven orders of
00:06:29.039 --> 00:06:30.309
magnitude.
00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:32.870
>> Which, if it holds, is a genuinely
00:06:32.880 --> 00:06:34.790
unifying statement about a class of
00:06:34.800 --> 00:06:37.029
object we usually treat as two separate
00:06:37.039 --> 00:06:38.150
populations.
00:06:38.160 --> 00:06:40.309
>> And it also clears up a mess, doesn't
00:06:40.319 --> 00:06:42.790
it? Because radio astronomers have had
00:06:42.800 --> 00:06:45.029
an awkward problem with these events for
00:06:45.039 --> 00:06:45.990
a while.
00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:48.550
>> A very awkward one. Some title
00:06:48.560 --> 00:06:50.790
disruption events produce a radio flare
00:06:50.800 --> 00:06:53.270
almost immediately. Some produce one
00:06:53.280 --> 00:06:55.990
much later out of nowhere. Sometimes
00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:57.670
years after everyone has stopped paying
00:06:57.680 --> 00:06:59.909
attention. Some appear to produce
00:06:59.919 --> 00:07:02.150
nothing at all. That looked like three
00:07:02.160 --> 00:07:05.270
different phenomena or worse like noise.
00:07:05.280 --> 00:07:07.830
>> And the two outflow picture makes it one
00:07:07.840 --> 00:07:10.469
phenomenon. one phenomenon with two
00:07:10.479 --> 00:07:12.870
stages where whether you see either of
00:07:12.880 --> 00:07:14.710
them depends on when you happen to be
00:07:14.720 --> 00:07:17.189
looking and how the accretion rate was
00:07:17.199 --> 00:07:20.070
falling. The prompt and delayed outflows
00:07:20.080 --> 00:07:22.230
stop being a puzzle and start being a
00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:23.189
prediction.
00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:25.589
>> And Goodwin makes a very practical point
00:07:25.599 --> 00:07:26.710
about that.
00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:28.469
>> She does and it's my favorite part of
00:07:28.479 --> 00:07:31.670
the release. Her line is quote, "Radio
00:07:31.680 --> 00:07:34.150
telescopes are incredibly powerful, but
00:07:34.160 --> 00:07:35.830
knowing when to look is just as
00:07:35.840 --> 00:07:38.469
important as knowing where to look." And
00:07:38.479 --> 00:07:40.870
she goes on, "If we can anticipate when
00:07:40.880 --> 00:07:42.790
a black hole is more likely to launch a
00:07:42.800 --> 00:07:44.790
jet, we can run better targeted
00:07:44.800 --> 00:07:47.589
campaigns, waste fewer observations, and
00:07:47.599 --> 00:07:49.189
improve our chances of catching these
00:07:49.199 --> 00:07:51.589
rare events at the moment they matter
00:07:51.599 --> 00:07:52.550
most,
00:07:52.560 --> 00:07:54.390
>> which is not a small thing when you're
00:07:54.400 --> 00:07:56.390
competing for time on the world's big
00:07:56.400 --> 00:07:57.350
dishes.
00:07:57.360 --> 00:07:59.270
>> It's the difference between a survey and
00:07:59.280 --> 00:08:01.909
a stakeout. And it matters enormously
00:08:01.919 --> 00:08:04.550
for what's coming because the Vera Rubin
00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:06.469
Observatory is about to start finding
00:08:06.479 --> 00:08:09.110
tidal disruption events in numbers we've
00:08:09.120 --> 00:08:11.670
never had before. If you can look at the
00:08:11.680 --> 00:08:13.670
optical light curve and predict roughly
00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:16.070
when the radio outflow should arrive,
00:08:16.080 --> 00:08:18.629
you can have the radio telescopes ready.
00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:20.950
Without that, you're guessing.
00:08:20.960 --> 00:08:23.670
>> And this one is properly ours.
00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:26.230
>> It is led from Curtain University in
00:08:26.240 --> 00:08:29.270
Perth through. And the underlying data
00:08:29.280 --> 00:08:31.189
set is the product of years of
00:08:31.199 --> 00:08:33.670
multi-wavelength campaigns drawing on
00:08:33.680 --> 00:08:35.909
telescopes in Australia, the United
00:08:35.919 --> 00:08:39.029
States, India, South Africa, and in
00:08:39.039 --> 00:08:41.670
space. This is not a single instrument
00:08:41.680 --> 00:08:44.550
result. It's a decade of patient radio
00:08:44.560 --> 00:08:47.430
follow-up on rare events assembled into
00:08:47.440 --> 00:08:49.910
one picture. And it lands in the same
00:08:49.920 --> 00:08:51.990
week that we're talking about the square
00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:54.470
kilometer arrays southern half taking
00:08:54.480 --> 00:08:57.110
shape out in Western Australia,
00:08:57.120 --> 00:08:58.870
>> which is precisely the instrument you'd
00:08:58.880 --> 00:09:00.710
want pointed at the next one.
00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:02.550
>> Two things to keep straight, though.
00:09:02.560 --> 00:09:05.190
>> Yes. The first is that this is a
00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:08.470
threshold, not a switch. saying black
00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:11.590
holes launch outflows at around 2% of
00:09:11.600 --> 00:09:14.389
Eddington is a statement about where the
00:09:14.399 --> 00:09:16.949
transition sits, not a promise that
00:09:16.959 --> 00:09:19.590
every black hole crossing that line will
00:09:19.600 --> 00:09:21.829
produce a jet you can detect. Whether
00:09:21.839 --> 00:09:23.590
you actually see one depends on the
00:09:23.600 --> 00:09:26.710
environment, the geometry, the distance,
00:09:26.720 --> 00:09:28.389
and the luck of having a telescope
00:09:28.399 --> 00:09:30.230
pointed in the right direction.
00:09:30.240 --> 00:09:31.509
>> And the second,
00:09:31.519 --> 00:09:33.990
>> the second is about timing. And we want
00:09:34.000 --> 00:09:35.670
to be straight with you. This was
00:09:35.680 --> 00:09:37.990
published in Nature Astronomy yesterday.
00:09:38.000 --> 00:09:40.870
That's real and the peer review is done.
00:09:40.880 --> 00:09:42.790
But the preprint went up on the archive
00:09:42.800 --> 00:09:45.350
back in February. So while this is newly
00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:47.829
published, it is not newly written. And
00:09:47.839 --> 00:09:49.829
if it feels vaguely familiar to anyone
00:09:49.839 --> 00:09:51.430
who follows the preprint servers
00:09:51.440 --> 00:09:53.430
closely, that's why.
00:09:53.440 --> 00:09:55.269
>> Which is a pattern we've flagged before
00:09:55.279 --> 00:09:56.550
on this show.
00:09:56.560 --> 00:09:59.190
>> It is, and we'll keep flagging it. The
00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:00.630
science is no less good for having
00:10:00.640 --> 00:10:03.430
waited seven months in review, but
00:10:03.440 --> 00:10:05.990
published this week and discovered this
00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:08.310
week are different claims, and we try
00:10:08.320 --> 00:10:10.230
very hard not to blur them.
00:10:10.240 --> 00:10:11.670
>> Longtime listeners will hear some
00:10:11.680 --> 00:10:13.590
threads here, too. We covered a
00:10:13.600 --> 00:10:15.829
wandering black hole revealed by a tidal
00:10:15.839 --> 00:10:19.269
disruption event back in episode 153 and
00:10:19.279 --> 00:10:21.670
a quazar driving turbulence across
00:10:21.680 --> 00:10:25.590
300,000 lightyear in 154. and the
00:10:25.600 --> 00:10:27.350
partial disruptions that fade and come
00:10:27.360 --> 00:10:31.190
back in episode 185. This result is the
00:10:31.200 --> 00:10:33.030
framework those individual objects have
00:10:33.040 --> 00:10:34.389
been waiting for.
00:10:34.399 --> 00:10:37.750
>> Now on to story two. That phrase super
00:10:37.760 --> 00:10:40.230
Edington came up in the lead and it's
00:10:40.240 --> 00:10:42.150
about to come up again because the
00:10:42.160 --> 00:10:44.310
second story this week is also about a
00:10:44.320 --> 00:10:46.470
black hole eating faster than it should
00:10:46.480 --> 00:10:49.590
be able to just 11 billion years
00:10:49.600 --> 00:10:50.630
earlier.
00:10:50.640 --> 00:10:52.310
>> The little red dots.
00:10:52.320 --> 00:10:54.870
>> The little red dots. And if you've been
00:10:54.880 --> 00:10:56.710
with us a while, you'll know these have
00:10:56.720 --> 00:10:58.630
been one of the most irritating things
00:10:58.640 --> 00:11:01.990
the James Web Space Telescope has found.
00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:05.350
Extremely compact, extremely red,
00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:07.190
extremely numerous in the early
00:11:07.200 --> 00:11:09.910
universe. They show the broad hydrogen
00:11:09.920 --> 00:11:12.069
emission lines you'd expect from gas
00:11:12.079 --> 00:11:14.630
whipping around a black hole, but there
00:11:14.640 --> 00:11:16.870
are far too many of them. And the black
00:11:16.880 --> 00:11:19.269
holes implied are far too heavy for the
00:11:19.279 --> 00:11:21.030
galaxies they sit in,
00:11:21.040 --> 00:11:23.030
>> which has produced a small industry of
00:11:23.040 --> 00:11:25.190
explanations. Some of them fairly
00:11:25.200 --> 00:11:26.310
exotic,
00:11:26.320 --> 00:11:30.069
>> some very exotic. So, here's what's new.
00:11:30.079 --> 00:11:33.110
A team led by Sunyan Chon with Shingo
00:11:33.120 --> 00:11:36.870
Hiano, Tommoaki Ishyama, Sukjun Chang,
00:11:36.880 --> 00:11:39.509
and Vulkar Springle published in Nature
00:11:39.519 --> 00:11:42.389
on the 16th of September ran fully
00:11:42.399 --> 00:11:44.949
cosmological radiation hydrodnamic
00:11:44.959 --> 00:11:47.670
simulations of a dense protocluster
00:11:47.680 --> 00:11:50.150
region in the early universe using
00:11:50.160 --> 00:11:53.350
Japan's Aeroi3 supercomput.
00:11:53.360 --> 00:11:55.030
>> And crucially, without putting the
00:11:55.040 --> 00:11:56.630
answer in by hand,
00:11:56.640 --> 00:11:58.949
>> that's the point. They didn't seed the
00:11:58.959 --> 00:12:00.870
simulation with the black holes they
00:12:00.880 --> 00:12:03.509
wanted. They let the physics run. And
00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:06.310
what happens is this. In that intensely
00:12:06.320 --> 00:12:08.949
overdense environment, the giant gas
00:12:08.959 --> 00:12:11.670
clouds are bathed in so much ultraviolet
00:12:11.680 --> 00:12:14.230
radiation that they can't fragment into
00:12:14.240 --> 00:12:17.190
ordinary stars. Normally, a big cloud
00:12:17.200 --> 00:12:19.350
breaks up into lots of little stellar
00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:22.710
nurseries. Here it can't. So instead,
00:12:22.720 --> 00:12:25.829
the whole thing collapses as one object,
00:12:25.839 --> 00:12:28.629
a primordial super massive star, which
00:12:28.639 --> 00:12:30.949
then promptly collapses into a black
00:12:30.959 --> 00:12:32.150
hole.
00:12:32.160 --> 00:12:33.509
>> A heavy seed,
00:12:33.519 --> 00:12:36.230
>> a heavy seed of around a million solar
00:12:36.240 --> 00:12:38.629
masses, which is roughly 10 times
00:12:38.639 --> 00:12:41.269
heavier than theory typically expects.
00:12:41.279 --> 00:12:43.430
And then those seeds develop dense,
00:12:43.440 --> 00:12:46.310
optically thick discs, so thick that
00:12:46.320 --> 00:12:48.470
light bounces around inside them,
00:12:48.480 --> 00:12:50.710
scattering off free electrons on the way
00:12:50.720 --> 00:12:53.670
out. And that electron scattering smears
00:12:53.680 --> 00:12:56.230
the hydrogen emission into exactly the
00:12:56.240 --> 00:12:59.670
broad lines we see in little red dots.
00:12:59.680 --> 00:13:01.590
>> So the broad lines aren't necessarily
00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:03.590
telling you the gas is moving as fast as
00:13:03.600 --> 00:13:04.710
you'd assumed.
00:13:04.720 --> 00:13:07.030
>> That's the elegant bit. Part of the
00:13:07.040 --> 00:13:10.230
width is scattering, not velocity. and
00:13:10.240 --> 00:13:12.870
then sustained super Edington accretion
00:13:12.880 --> 00:13:15.350
drives the thing up to around 30 million
00:13:15.360 --> 00:13:18.150
solar masses by a red shift of eight
00:13:18.160 --> 00:13:20.470
which puts it right in the population of
00:13:20.480 --> 00:13:23.750
over massive quazars web keeps finding.
00:13:23.760 --> 00:13:27.190
So it's one continuous story. Seed dot
00:13:27.200 --> 00:13:30.069
quazar and eventually the super massive
00:13:30.079 --> 00:13:32.790
black holes sitting in galaxies today.
00:13:32.800 --> 00:13:35.509
>> One story with the little red dot phase
00:13:35.519 --> 00:13:38.470
being short and dust shrouded, a stage
00:13:38.480 --> 00:13:41.110
rather than a species. And the timing is
00:13:41.120 --> 00:13:43.670
rather lovely because Nature Astronomy
00:13:43.680 --> 00:13:45.910
published a whole focus issue on little
00:13:45.920 --> 00:13:48.710
red dots the same week, including a
00:13:48.720 --> 00:13:51.269
review by Hannah Ubler on massive black
00:13:51.279 --> 00:13:54.150
holes in the first billion years. The
00:13:54.160 --> 00:13:56.470
field is consolidating and this happens
00:13:56.480 --> 00:13:58.389
to be the week it did it.
00:13:58.399 --> 00:14:00.310
>> One caution though, and it's the same
00:14:00.320 --> 00:14:02.230
one we gave for the black hole feedback
00:14:02.240 --> 00:14:03.590
work last month.
00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:04.629
>> Go on.
00:14:04.639 --> 00:14:06.870
>> This is a simulation that reproduces the
00:14:06.880 --> 00:14:09.030
observations. That's a demonstration
00:14:09.040 --> 00:14:11.269
that the physics is sufficient. You
00:14:11.279 --> 00:14:13.030
don't need anything exotic to get little
00:14:13.040 --> 00:14:16.310
red dots. It is not on its own proof
00:14:16.320 --> 00:14:18.629
that this is what actually happened.
00:14:18.639 --> 00:14:21.269
Other roots may also produce them. What
00:14:21.279 --> 00:14:23.189
would settle it is a direct measurement
00:14:23.199 --> 00:14:25.030
of one of these objects that
00:14:25.040 --> 00:14:27.189
distinguishes scattering broadened lines
00:14:27.199 --> 00:14:29.430
from genuinely fast gas,
00:14:29.440 --> 00:14:31.509
>> which is exactly the kind of thing Web
00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:32.629
could do.
00:14:32.639 --> 00:14:35.030
>> Right. Next up, let's come all the way
00:14:35.040 --> 00:14:38.150
back. about 6,000 kilometers in fact to
00:14:38.160 --> 00:14:39.509
the middle of the Earth,
00:14:39.519 --> 00:14:41.670
>> which is not where you think it is.
00:14:41.680 --> 00:14:43.509
>> It really isn't. And this is one of
00:14:43.519 --> 00:14:45.110
those facts that sounds like a trick
00:14:45.120 --> 00:14:47.350
until you sit with it. There are two
00:14:47.360 --> 00:14:49.350
different centers of the Earth. There's
00:14:49.360 --> 00:14:51.509
the center of figure, the geometric
00:14:51.519 --> 00:14:53.670
middle of the solid planet surface,
00:14:53.680 --> 00:14:56.150
which is essentially fixed. And there's
00:14:56.160 --> 00:14:58.550
the center of mass, the balance point of
00:14:58.560 --> 00:15:00.550
everything the planet is made of.
00:15:00.560 --> 00:15:02.629
>> And the planet is partly made of water
00:15:02.639 --> 00:15:04.310
and air, which move
00:15:04.320 --> 00:15:07.269
>> constantly. Snow falls across Siberia
00:15:07.279 --> 00:15:10.870
and Canada. The Amazon basin floods. The
00:15:10.880 --> 00:15:13.590
monsoon arrives over Southeast Asia.
00:15:13.600 --> 00:15:15.750
Every one of those shifts an enormous
00:15:15.760 --> 00:15:17.590
amount of mass from one part of the
00:15:17.600 --> 00:15:19.829
planet to another. And the balance point
00:15:19.839 --> 00:15:22.230
moves to follow it. So the center of
00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:24.150
mass and the center of figure drift
00:15:24.160 --> 00:15:25.990
apart and back together over the course
00:15:26.000 --> 00:15:26.870
of a year.
00:15:26.880 --> 00:15:28.550
>> And we care because
00:15:28.560 --> 00:15:30.150
>> because the center of mass is what
00:15:30.160 --> 00:15:32.949
satellites orbit. It's the origin of the
00:15:32.959 --> 00:15:35.030
reference frame that underpins satellite
00:15:35.040 --> 00:15:37.990
navigation and every precise elevation
00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:40.069
measurement on the planet. If you're
00:15:40.079 --> 00:15:41.910
wrong about where it is, you're wrong
00:15:41.920 --> 00:15:44.150
about where everything else is.
00:15:44.160 --> 00:15:46.150
>> So, how big is the wobble?
00:15:46.160 --> 00:15:48.629
>> That's the news. The traditional figure
00:15:48.639 --> 00:15:52.069
has been around 11 mm. A team led by
00:15:52.079 --> 00:15:54.230
Donald Argus at NASA's Jet Propulsion
00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:57.110
Laboratory now puts it at roughly 4 to
00:15:57.120 --> 00:16:00.790
5, about half what we thought. published
00:16:00.800 --> 00:16:03.030
in Geoysical Journal International with
00:16:03.040 --> 00:16:04.870
the JPL release on Tuesday.
00:16:04.880 --> 00:16:07.030
>> Half is a big correction for something
00:16:07.040 --> 00:16:09.189
people have been measuring for decades.
00:16:09.199 --> 00:16:11.829
>> It is. And here's how uncertain it's
00:16:11.839 --> 00:16:14.069
been. The last two international
00:16:14.079 --> 00:16:16.870
estimates, one from 2017 and one from
00:16:16.880 --> 00:16:20.069
2023, disagree with each other by about
00:16:20.079 --> 00:16:23.030
7 mm, which is almost as large as the
00:16:23.040 --> 00:16:24.790
entire motion they're trying to measure.
00:16:24.800 --> 00:16:27.110
>> So, the error bar was the same size as
00:16:27.120 --> 00:16:29.430
the signal. Essentially,
00:16:29.440 --> 00:16:31.990
Argus' own line is that the movement now
00:16:32.000 --> 00:16:34.310
looks like about half of what we
00:16:34.320 --> 00:16:37.110
believed 8 years ago, and that the mass
00:16:37.120 --> 00:16:39.269
of water and air sloshing between the
00:16:39.279 --> 00:16:42.550
hemispheres is smaller than we thought.
00:16:42.560 --> 00:16:44.389
>> And where does the movement actually
00:16:44.399 --> 00:16:45.110
come from?
00:16:45.120 --> 00:16:47.749
>> Three main contributors, ocean,
00:16:47.759 --> 00:16:51.670
atmosphere, and land water. In March,
00:16:51.680 --> 00:16:53.749
snow sitting across Eurasia and North
00:16:53.759 --> 00:16:56.790
America pulls the center of mass about 3
00:16:56.800 --> 00:16:59.590
millimeters toward the northern pole.
00:16:59.600 --> 00:17:01.990
Then in April, the Amazon hits its
00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:05.110
annual water maximum, around 2,400
00:17:05.120 --> 00:17:08.630
gatons, and tugs at roughly 2.2 mm
00:17:08.640 --> 00:17:10.710
towards South America. Later in the
00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:12.549
year, monsoon water across Southeast
00:17:12.559 --> 00:17:15.350
Asia peaks at around 600 gatons and
00:17:15.360 --> 00:17:16.870
pulls in its own direction.
00:17:16.880 --> 00:17:18.069
>> None of which wins.
00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:21.029
>> None of which wins. They combine into an
00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:23.669
annual oscillation that never settles.
00:17:23.679 --> 00:17:25.429
And my favorite complication in the
00:17:25.439 --> 00:17:27.829
whole study is this. When you pile
00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:29.590
trillions of tons of water onto a
00:17:29.600 --> 00:17:32.310
continent, the crust flexes under the
00:17:32.320 --> 00:17:34.630
load, which means the ground stations
00:17:34.640 --> 00:17:36.390
you're using to measure the movement are
00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:37.590
themselves moving.
00:17:37.600 --> 00:17:39.430
>> You have to subtract the observatory
00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:41.190
from the observation.
00:17:41.200 --> 00:17:43.590
>> You do. They handled it by combining
00:17:43.600 --> 00:17:45.830
laser ranging to satellites. And that's
00:17:45.840 --> 00:17:48.150
the Legios technique which Australia
00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:49.990
contributes to from the Mount Stromlo
00:17:50.000 --> 00:17:53.029
station outside Canberra with GPS and
00:17:53.039 --> 00:17:55.510
with the Grace follow-on gravity mission
00:17:55.520 --> 00:17:58.230
then modeling the custal deformation out
00:17:58.240 --> 00:17:59.750
>> and the practical end of it.
00:17:59.760 --> 00:18:02.150
>> Felix Lander, one of the co-authors put
00:18:02.160 --> 00:18:03.990
it well. He said that while these
00:18:04.000 --> 00:18:06.470
movements might appear tiny, our modern
00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:08.470
world relies on extremely accurate
00:18:08.480 --> 00:18:10.710
positioning and that by understanding
00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:13.029
what changes the reference system, we
00:18:13.039 --> 00:18:15.270
can build better reference systems. He
00:18:15.280 --> 00:18:16.870
lists the beneficiaries as everything
00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:18.710
from global shipping logistics to
00:18:18.720 --> 00:18:20.470
precision agriculture,
00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:22.950
>> which is a long way from black holes.
00:18:22.960 --> 00:18:25.590
And I rather like that about this job.
00:18:25.600 --> 00:18:26.870
>> Me, too.
00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:29.190
>> Last story. And it's a small, clever
00:18:29.200 --> 00:18:32.150
one. 20 light years away, there's an
00:18:32.160 --> 00:18:36.310
object called SIMP0136.
00:18:36.320 --> 00:18:39.190
It's a brown dwarf, too heavy to be a
00:18:39.200 --> 00:18:41.909
planet in the ordinary sense, too light
00:18:41.919 --> 00:18:44.710
to have ever ignited hydrogen fusion and
00:18:44.720 --> 00:18:47.669
become a star. It sits right on the
00:18:47.679 --> 00:18:51.190
boundary and it has no host star at all.
00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:52.950
It's just drifting,
00:18:52.960 --> 00:18:56.070
>> which makes it unusually easy to study,
00:18:56.080 --> 00:18:59.270
>> enormously easier. Normally, if you want
00:18:59.280 --> 00:19:01.990
to look at a giant planet's atmosphere,
00:19:02.000 --> 00:19:03.909
you're fighting the glare of the star
00:19:03.919 --> 00:19:07.110
next to it. Here there's no star. You
00:19:07.120 --> 00:19:09.590
just point and look. Which is why
00:19:09.600 --> 00:19:12.310
SIMP0136
00:19:12.320 --> 00:19:14.549
has become the reference object for what
00:19:14.559 --> 00:19:16.870
directly imaged giant planets are
00:19:16.880 --> 00:19:18.070
probably like.
00:19:18.080 --> 00:19:19.590
>> And it varies.
00:19:19.600 --> 00:19:22.710
>> It spins once every 2 hours and 25
00:19:22.720 --> 00:19:25.510
minutes. And as it spins, its brightness
00:19:25.520 --> 00:19:28.630
changes by a few%. Different amounts at
00:19:28.640 --> 00:19:30.710
different wavelengths, which tells you
00:19:30.720 --> 00:19:33.669
there's weather, clouds, hotspots,
00:19:33.679 --> 00:19:35.909
chemistry, all of it changing as
00:19:35.919 --> 00:19:38.630
different faces rotate into view. The
00:19:38.640 --> 00:19:39.990
trouble has been that it's looked
00:19:40.000 --> 00:19:42.470
fantastically complicated. Multiple
00:19:42.480 --> 00:19:45.190
mechanisms, multiple layers, all tangled
00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:46.150
together.
00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:47.990
>> So, what did they do differently?
00:19:48.000 --> 00:19:51.110
>> They stopped assuming. Merl Schrader, a
00:19:51.120 --> 00:19:54.150
PhD candidate at Trinity College Dublin
00:19:54.160 --> 00:19:56.310
with colleagues there and elsewhere,
00:19:56.320 --> 00:19:58.390
took one full rotation of web
00:19:58.400 --> 00:20:01.270
spectroscopy and ran principal component
00:20:01.280 --> 00:20:03.909
analysis on it, which is a technique for
00:20:03.919 --> 00:20:06.470
asking a data set the blunt question,
00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:08.789
how many independent things are actually
00:20:08.799 --> 00:20:11.909
changing here, not does my model fit,
00:20:11.919 --> 00:20:14.870
just how many knobs are being turned?
00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:17.029
>> And the answer was
00:20:17.039 --> 00:20:19.909
>> two. Two components are enough to push
00:20:19.919 --> 00:20:22.070
what's left over down to the noise floor
00:20:22.080 --> 00:20:24.070
of the instrument. Which means that
00:20:24.080 --> 00:20:26.390
within what web can detect, there is
00:20:26.400 --> 00:20:28.149
nothing else going on.
00:20:28.159 --> 00:20:29.750
>> And what are the two?
00:20:29.760 --> 00:20:32.390
>> The first is broadband. It moves the
00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:34.470
whole spectrum together and that's
00:20:34.480 --> 00:20:37.190
temperature. The second is chromatic
00:20:37.200 --> 00:20:39.830
wavelength dependent and that traces the
00:20:39.840 --> 00:20:42.310
vertical structure of the clouds, how
00:20:42.320 --> 00:20:45.029
high and how thick they are. And between
00:20:45.039 --> 00:20:47.510
them, those two resolve into three
00:20:47.520 --> 00:20:49.990
recurring conditions. Patches that are
00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:52.310
hotter with thinner cloud, patches that
00:20:52.320 --> 00:20:54.149
are cooler with thick vertically
00:20:54.159 --> 00:20:56.950
extended cloud, and transitional regions
00:20:56.960 --> 00:20:58.230
between the two.
00:20:58.240 --> 00:21:00.149
>> So it looks chaotic and it's actually
00:21:00.159 --> 00:21:01.029
organized.
00:21:01.039 --> 00:21:04.070
>> Lowdimensional is the term. A famously
00:21:04.080 --> 00:21:06.310
messy atmosphere turns out to be running
00:21:06.320 --> 00:21:09.110
on two dials. And the team then went
00:21:09.120 --> 00:21:11.430
further and projected model atmospheres
00:21:11.440 --> 00:21:14.230
into the same mathematical space. and
00:21:14.240 --> 00:21:16.789
found the models largely occupy the same
00:21:16.799 --> 00:21:19.270
territory, which is a decent sign the
00:21:19.280 --> 00:21:21.350
models are capturing the right physics
00:21:21.360 --> 00:21:24.070
rather than accidentally agreeing.
00:21:24.080 --> 00:21:26.070
>> Two notes of care on this one,
00:21:26.080 --> 00:21:26.950
>> please.
00:21:26.960 --> 00:21:28.789
>> The first is that some of the coverage
00:21:28.799 --> 00:21:30.390
has described these patterns as
00:21:30.400 --> 00:21:32.390
persisting over more than a dozen
00:21:32.400 --> 00:21:35.430
rotations. The paper's core analysis is
00:21:35.440 --> 00:21:37.750
one rotation. That's a real and
00:21:37.760 --> 00:21:39.590
interesting result, but a second
00:21:39.600 --> 00:21:41.990
highquality rotation is precisely the
00:21:42.000 --> 00:21:43.669
test that would confirm the patterns
00:21:43.679 --> 00:21:46.070
hold. So, we'll describe it as the test
00:21:46.080 --> 00:21:47.830
rather than the finding.
00:21:47.840 --> 00:21:50.390
>> And the second is our usual one.
00:21:50.400 --> 00:21:52.630
>> The preprint went up in late July, so
00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:54.549
there's about a 7-week gap before the
00:21:54.559 --> 00:21:56.310
journal version and the Trinity release
00:21:56.320 --> 00:21:58.789
this week. Shorter than yesterday's, but
00:21:58.799 --> 00:22:00.070
worth saying.
00:22:00.080 --> 00:22:03.669
>> And one lovely human detail to finish.
00:22:03.679 --> 00:22:06.070
SIMP0136
00:22:06.080 --> 00:22:09.270
is 20 light years away. The web data
00:22:09.280 --> 00:22:12.710
Shraider analyzed was gathered in 2023.
00:22:12.720 --> 00:22:14.710
So the light she was working with left
00:22:14.720 --> 00:22:17.590
that object in the year she was born.
00:22:17.600 --> 00:22:19.029
>> That's a very good reason to go into
00:22:19.039 --> 00:22:20.310
astronomy.
00:22:20.320 --> 00:22:22.950
>> Now we have one more quick one before
00:22:22.960 --> 00:22:24.230
Skywatch.
00:22:24.240 --> 00:22:26.870
>> We do indeed. The sun has gone very
00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:28.230
quiet indeed.
00:22:28.240 --> 00:22:29.510
>> How quiet?
00:22:29.520 --> 00:22:32.149
>> Very nearly blank. As of yesterday,
00:22:32.159 --> 00:22:34.149
there was exactly one numbered active
00:22:34.159 --> 00:22:36.549
region left on the Earth-facing side,
00:22:36.559 --> 00:22:38.630
AR4528,
00:22:38.640 --> 00:22:40.549
and it's rotating out of view as we
00:22:40.559 --> 00:22:43.669
speak. If nothing new emerges behind it,
00:22:43.679 --> 00:22:45.430
we're about to get the sun's first
00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:47.909
spotless day since the 24th of February
00:22:47.919 --> 00:22:49.029
this year.
00:22:49.039 --> 00:22:51.510
>> And February was itself notable.
00:22:51.520 --> 00:22:55.590
February ended a streak of 1,335
00:22:55.600 --> 00:22:57.510
consecutive days with at least one
00:22:57.520 --> 00:23:00.310
sunspot going all the way back to June
00:23:00.320 --> 00:23:01.990
2022.
00:23:02.000 --> 00:23:05.830
Solar cycle 25 peaked in October 2024.
00:23:05.840 --> 00:23:07.669
And this is what the downhill side looks
00:23:07.679 --> 00:23:11.110
like. For scale, the last solar minimum
00:23:11.120 --> 00:23:14.149
between 2018 and 2020 delivered
00:23:14.159 --> 00:23:17.029
something like 700 spotless days.
00:23:17.039 --> 00:23:19.510
>> And minimum itself is still some way
00:23:19.520 --> 00:23:23.270
off. not expected before about 2030. But
00:23:23.280 --> 00:23:25.430
here's the part worth holding on to, and
00:23:25.440 --> 00:23:27.110
it connects two stories we've run
00:23:27.120 --> 00:23:29.990
recently. A quiet sun is not a harmless
00:23:30.000 --> 00:23:32.870
sun. It's a differently hazardous one.
00:23:32.880 --> 00:23:35.350
We talked in episode 192 about the
00:23:35.360 --> 00:23:37.510
energy a big active region can store for
00:23:37.520 --> 00:23:40.630
a super flare. And in 193 about cosmic
00:23:40.640 --> 00:23:43.590
radiation at aviation altitudes. And
00:23:43.600 --> 00:23:45.909
that second one runs the opposite way.
00:23:45.919 --> 00:23:48.230
When the sun is quiet, its magnetic
00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:50.070
field does less to shield the inner
00:23:50.080 --> 00:23:52.870
solar system. So, galactic cosmic rays
00:23:52.880 --> 00:23:55.669
get through more easily. Radiation dose
00:23:55.679 --> 00:23:58.310
at cruising altitude runs 40 to 60%
00:23:58.320 --> 00:24:01.270
higher at solar minimum than at maximum.
00:24:01.280 --> 00:24:03.669
>> Same dial, opposite end.
00:24:03.679 --> 00:24:06.310
>> Fewer auroras, more cosmic rays.
00:24:06.320 --> 00:24:08.549
>> And that's a very good excuse to talk
00:24:08.559 --> 00:24:11.350
about the sky because tonight there is
00:24:11.360 --> 00:24:13.269
something genuinely worth walking
00:24:13.279 --> 00:24:15.510
outside for. and it works from
00:24:15.520 --> 00:24:17.029
everywhere.
00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:18.549
>> Venus.
00:24:18.559 --> 00:24:21.110
>> Venus at greatest brilliancancy.
00:24:21.120 --> 00:24:24.070
Tonight, the 18th of September, Venus
00:24:24.080 --> 00:24:25.990
reaches its peak brightness for this
00:24:26.000 --> 00:24:28.950
entire evening apparition, magnitude
00:24:28.960 --> 00:24:31.029
minus4.8.
00:24:31.039 --> 00:24:32.950
There is nothing else in the night sky
00:24:32.960 --> 00:24:35.269
that comes close except the moon.
00:24:35.279 --> 00:24:37.029
>> And the reason it peaks tonight rather
00:24:37.039 --> 00:24:39.590
than when Venus is full is genuinely
00:24:39.600 --> 00:24:41.110
counterintuitive.
00:24:41.120 --> 00:24:43.110
It's the best bit of physics in the
00:24:43.120 --> 00:24:45.830
whole segment. Venus is not full
00:24:45.840 --> 00:24:49.350
tonight. It's a crescent only about 26%
00:24:49.360 --> 00:24:52.230
lit. But because it's swinging in closer
00:24:52.240 --> 00:24:54.870
to us, that crescent has swollen to
00:24:54.880 --> 00:24:58.390
nearly 40 arcsec across. Brightness is
00:24:58.400 --> 00:25:00.710
lit fraction multiplied by apparent
00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:03.430
size. And right now the disc is growing
00:25:03.440 --> 00:25:05.750
faster than the illuminated fraction is
00:25:05.760 --> 00:25:06.789
shrinking.
00:25:06.799 --> 00:25:09.510
>> A big thin crescent beats a small full
00:25:09.520 --> 00:25:12.789
disc. every time. And if you have
00:25:12.799 --> 00:25:15.269
binoculars, hold them steady and you'll
00:25:15.279 --> 00:25:18.310
actually see the crescent shape. At 40
00:25:18.320 --> 00:25:21.029
arcsec, it's within reach, which
00:25:21.039 --> 00:25:22.950
surprises people because we don't think
00:25:22.960 --> 00:25:25.669
of Venus as something you can resolve.
00:25:25.679 --> 00:25:27.269
>> And if you see a different date quoted
00:25:27.279 --> 00:25:30.230
somewhere, some listings say the 22nd.
00:25:30.240 --> 00:25:32.950
Both are defensible. The peak is very
00:25:32.960 --> 00:25:35.990
flat. Between tonight and the 22nd, the
00:25:36.000 --> 00:25:40.390
lit fraction drops from about 26% to 23,
00:25:40.400 --> 00:25:42.390
while the disc grows from roughly 40
00:25:42.400 --> 00:25:46.470
arcsec to 42. And those two changes very
00:25:46.480 --> 00:25:48.470
nearly cancel. So, you're not going to
00:25:48.480 --> 00:25:50.870
miss it by going out on the wrong night.
00:25:50.880 --> 00:25:53.510
>> Now, how well you do tonight depends
00:25:53.520 --> 00:25:55.909
enormously on where you're standing, and
00:25:55.919 --> 00:25:58.070
the gap is dramatic.
00:25:58.080 --> 00:26:00.710
>> From Sydney, this is a spectacle. Sunset
00:26:00.720 --> 00:26:03.830
is at4 to 6 and at that moment Venus is
00:26:03.840 --> 00:26:06.950
39° above the western horizon. That's
00:26:06.960 --> 00:26:09.430
more than a third of the way up the sky.
00:26:09.440 --> 00:26:11.830
It doesn't set until just before 9:00,
00:26:11.840 --> 00:26:14.070
which gives you 3 hours and 13 minutes
00:26:14.080 --> 00:26:17.190
of Venus after sunset. You do not need a
00:26:17.200 --> 00:26:20.149
clear horizon. You do not need to hurry.
00:26:20.159 --> 00:26:22.549
>> And from the northern hemisphere, it's a
00:26:22.559 --> 00:26:25.269
different evening entirely. From Los
00:26:25.279 --> 00:26:28.950
Angeles, sunset is at 10 to 7 and Venus
00:26:28.960 --> 00:26:32.789
is 14° up. It sets an hour and 19
00:26:32.799 --> 00:26:35.590
minutes after the sun. From New York,
00:26:35.600 --> 00:26:39.350
10° up, 1 hour and 3 minutes. From
00:26:39.360 --> 00:26:43.590
London, 3 1/2° at sunset and gone 28
00:26:43.600 --> 00:26:44.789
minutes later,
00:26:44.799 --> 00:26:47.190
>> which is not Venus being fainter. It's
00:26:47.200 --> 00:26:49.269
exactly as bright everywhere. It's the
00:26:49.279 --> 00:26:50.470
geometry.
00:26:50.480 --> 00:26:53.350
>> It's the tilt of the ecliptic. At this
00:26:53.360 --> 00:26:55.110
time of year, the plane of the solar
00:26:55.120 --> 00:26:57.510
system stands almost vertically out of
00:26:57.520 --> 00:26:59.590
the western horizon at dusk from the
00:26:59.600 --> 00:27:02.149
southern hemisphere. So anything on that
00:27:02.159 --> 00:27:04.549
plane climbs steeply and takes a long
00:27:04.559 --> 00:27:06.710
time to set. From the northern
00:27:06.720 --> 00:27:09.510
hemisphere in September, that same plane
00:27:09.520 --> 00:27:11.750
lies down almost flat against the
00:27:11.760 --> 00:27:14.310
horizon and everything on it skims
00:27:14.320 --> 00:27:16.149
sideways and sets quickly.
00:27:16.159 --> 00:27:18.310
>> So northern listeners, here's the
00:27:18.320 --> 00:27:20.710
practical version. Find a spot with a
00:27:20.720 --> 00:27:24.070
genuinely clear, flat western horizon.
00:27:24.080 --> 00:27:27.190
No trees, no buildings. Start looking 20
00:27:27.200 --> 00:27:29.110
minutes after sunset and don't leave it
00:27:29.120 --> 00:27:31.590
much past 45. It'll be the brightest
00:27:31.600 --> 00:27:33.190
thing in that part of the sky by an
00:27:33.200 --> 00:27:35.350
enormous margin, so you won't be in any
00:27:35.360 --> 00:27:36.789
doubt once you've got it.
00:27:36.799 --> 00:27:39.750
>> And a bonus for the south, Mercury is up
00:27:39.760 --> 00:27:43.190
there, too. From Sydney, Mercury is 16
00:27:43.200 --> 00:27:46.070
degrees above the horizon at sunset and
00:27:46.080 --> 00:27:48.789
doesn't set for an hour and 20 minutes,
00:27:48.799 --> 00:27:50.789
which for Mercury is a comfortable
00:27:50.799 --> 00:27:53.510
viewing window. From Los Angeles, it's
00:27:53.520 --> 00:27:58.549
9° and 43 minutes. From London, 4° and
00:27:58.559 --> 00:28:01.350
26 minutes. That one really is a
00:28:01.360 --> 00:28:03.190
southern target this week.
00:28:03.200 --> 00:28:05.029
>> And then there's the moon, which is
00:28:05.039 --> 00:28:07.350
doing something rather precise tonight.
00:28:07.360 --> 00:28:10.230
>> First quarter, and it's exact. The moon
00:28:10.240 --> 00:28:13.669
reaches first quarter at 20:43 universal
00:28:13.679 --> 00:28:16.310
time tonight. That's quarter to 5 on
00:28:16.320 --> 00:28:19.510
Friday afternoon in New York,4 to 2 in
00:28:19.520 --> 00:28:22.789
Los Angeles to 10 on Friday evening in
00:28:22.799 --> 00:28:26.389
London. And for Australia, 20 to 7 on
00:28:26.399 --> 00:28:27.669
Saturday morning.
00:28:27.679 --> 00:28:29.669
>> And from Sydney tonight, the moon is
00:28:29.679 --> 00:28:32.789
very nearly overhead. 82 degrees up at
00:28:32.799 --> 00:28:34.310
sunset, which is close enough to
00:28:34.320 --> 00:28:35.669
straight up that you'll find yourself
00:28:35.679 --> 00:28:37.590
leaning back to look at it. which
00:28:37.600 --> 00:28:40.070
matters because tomorrow night, Saturday
00:28:40.080 --> 00:28:42.950
the 19th, is international observe the
00:28:42.960 --> 00:28:44.070
moon night.
00:28:44.080 --> 00:28:45.830
>> And the timing of that is not an
00:28:45.840 --> 00:28:47.909
accident. It's deliberately scheduled
00:28:47.919 --> 00:28:50.230
near first quarter because first quarter
00:28:50.240 --> 00:28:51.990
is when the moon is at its most
00:28:52.000 --> 00:28:54.630
interesting through any optical aid.
00:28:54.640 --> 00:28:57.029
Along the terminator, the line dividing
00:28:57.039 --> 00:28:59.350
day from night, the sun is striking the
00:28:59.360 --> 00:29:01.669
surface at a grazing angle. So every
00:29:01.679 --> 00:29:03.750
crater rim and mountain throws a long
00:29:03.760 --> 00:29:06.149
shadow across the ground behind it. A
00:29:06.159 --> 00:29:09.190
full moon looks flat. A half moon looks
00:29:09.200 --> 00:29:10.630
three-dimensional.
00:29:10.640 --> 00:29:12.950
>> Completely three-dimensional. Run the
00:29:12.960 --> 00:29:14.630
terminator with even a small pair of
00:29:14.640 --> 00:29:16.789
binoculars and the whole landscape
00:29:16.799 --> 00:29:19.350
stands up out of the surface. If you've
00:29:19.360 --> 00:29:20.870
only ever looked at a full moon and
00:29:20.880 --> 00:29:22.870
found it disappointing, this is the
00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:25.669
night to try again. NASA's own event is
00:29:25.679 --> 00:29:27.590
at the US Space and Rocket Center in
00:29:27.600 --> 00:29:29.750
Huntsville, Alabama. But the whole point
00:29:29.760 --> 00:29:32.070
is that it's global. You just need to go
00:29:32.080 --> 00:29:33.190
outside.
00:29:33.200 --> 00:29:35.350
>> And to balance the ledger because the
00:29:35.360 --> 00:29:37.510
south has had the better of the evening.
00:29:37.520 --> 00:29:39.990
The morning sky belongs decisively to
00:29:40.000 --> 00:29:40.950
the north.
00:29:40.960 --> 00:29:43.510
>> It does. Mars and Jupiter are both
00:29:43.520 --> 00:29:45.830
climbing in the pre-dawn east. And the
00:29:45.840 --> 00:29:47.750
same ecliptic geometry that flattened
00:29:47.760 --> 00:29:50.070
Venus for northern viewers works the
00:29:50.080 --> 00:29:52.310
other way around before sunrise. At
00:29:52.320 --> 00:29:54.950
nautical dawn tomorrow morning, Mars is
00:29:54.960 --> 00:29:58.230
48° up from Los Angeles and 46 from New
00:29:58.240 --> 00:30:01.909
York and 41 from London. Avery and from
00:30:01.919 --> 00:30:02.870
Sydney,
00:30:02.880 --> 00:30:05.830
>> 20°. So that's very much your sky, not
00:30:05.840 --> 00:30:09.510
ours. Jupiter is 26° up from Los Angeles
00:30:09.520 --> 00:30:10.950
and 9 from Sydney.
00:30:10.960 --> 00:30:13.590
>> And those two are closing on each other.
00:30:13.600 --> 00:30:16.789
They're about 23° apart this morning. By
00:30:16.799 --> 00:30:20.149
midocctober, that's down to 12. And by
00:30:20.159 --> 00:30:22.389
the middle of November, they'll be a
00:30:22.399 --> 00:30:24.870
little over a degree apart. Close enough
00:30:24.880 --> 00:30:26.870
to cover with a fingertip at arms
00:30:26.880 --> 00:30:31.029
length. That's the one to diarize.
00:30:31.039 --> 00:30:33.269
Saturn, meanwhile, is up essentially all
00:30:33.279 --> 00:30:35.430
night from everywhere. It doesn't set
00:30:35.440 --> 00:30:37.190
until nearly 7 in the morning from
00:30:37.200 --> 00:30:39.510
Sydney and just before 8 from Los
00:30:39.520 --> 00:30:41.669
Angeles. and it's building toward
00:30:41.679 --> 00:30:44.149
opposition on the 4th of October when
00:30:44.159 --> 00:30:46.310
the disc will be about 19 and a half
00:30:46.320 --> 00:30:49.750
arcsec across with the rings roughly 7°
00:30:49.760 --> 00:30:51.430
open
00:30:51.440 --> 00:30:53.990
>> and the equinox next week
00:30:54.000 --> 00:30:55.750
>> which we'll flag carefully because we
00:30:55.760 --> 00:30:57.590
got this slightly wrong in an earlier
00:30:57.600 --> 00:31:00.230
episode and corrected it. The September
00:31:00.240 --> 00:31:03.510
equinox is a single instant, not a day.
00:31:03.520 --> 00:31:05.669
5 minutes past midnight universal time
00:31:05.679 --> 00:31:08.230
on the 23rd. That's the evening of the
00:31:08.240 --> 00:31:10.870
22nd across the Americas and midm
00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:13.350
morning on the 23rd in Australia. So,
00:31:13.360 --> 00:31:15.190
the date depends entirely on where
00:31:15.200 --> 00:31:16.549
you're standing.
00:31:16.559 --> 00:31:18.470
>> And one last thing which follows
00:31:18.480 --> 00:31:20.389
directly from that quick hit about the
00:31:20.399 --> 00:31:23.110
blank sun because every time we mention
00:31:23.120 --> 00:31:25.830
sunspots, people quite reasonably want
00:31:25.840 --> 00:31:27.669
to go and look.
00:31:27.679 --> 00:31:30.310
>> And you can, but never ever with
00:31:30.320 --> 00:31:32.549
unprotected eyes and never through
00:31:32.559 --> 00:31:34.630
binoculars or a telescope that isn't
00:31:34.640 --> 00:31:37.110
purpose-built for it. The only safe way
00:31:37.120 --> 00:31:39.430
to look directly at the sun is through
00:31:39.440 --> 00:31:41.509
filters certified to the international
00:31:41.519 --> 00:31:45.669
standard ISO12312-2.
00:31:45.679 --> 00:31:48.310
That's eclipse glasses or a proper solar
00:31:48.320 --> 00:31:49.830
filter fitted over the front of the
00:31:49.840 --> 00:31:53.110
instrument. Never on the eyepiece end.
00:31:53.120 --> 00:31:55.750
>> And ordinary sunglasses are not solar
00:31:55.760 --> 00:31:58.470
filters. Neither is smoked glass,
00:31:58.480 --> 00:32:01.750
exposed film, a CD, or stacking several
00:32:01.760 --> 00:32:04.149
pairs of sunglasses together.
00:32:04.159 --> 00:32:06.070
>> None of those are safe. Check your
00:32:06.080 --> 00:32:09.909
eclipse glasses for the ISO12312-2
00:32:09.919 --> 00:32:11.830
marking. And if they're scratched,
00:32:11.840 --> 00:32:13.190
punctured, or you can't find the
00:32:13.200 --> 00:32:15.830
marking, don't use them. The safest
00:32:15.840 --> 00:32:18.070
option of all, and honestly the best one
00:32:18.080 --> 00:32:21.110
for a group, is projection. Put the
00:32:21.120 --> 00:32:23.029
sun's image onto a white card and
00:32:23.039 --> 00:32:24.549
everybody can look at once without
00:32:24.559 --> 00:32:26.389
anyone looking up.
00:32:26.399 --> 00:32:28.470
>> Although this week there may be nothing
00:32:28.480 --> 00:32:31.190
to see, which is rather the point.
00:32:31.200 --> 00:32:33.110
>> That's Astronomy Daily for Friday the
00:32:33.120 --> 00:32:35.350
18th of September. Everything we've
00:32:35.360 --> 00:32:37.190
talked about today, the papers, the
00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:39.750
DOIs, the full skywatch figures for all
00:32:39.760 --> 00:32:42.710
four cities is in the show notes and on
00:32:42.720 --> 00:32:45.990
the website at astronomyaily.io
00:32:46.000 --> 00:32:47.990
>> where you'll also find the full back
00:32:48.000 --> 00:32:50.789
catalog, the daily newsletter, and the
00:32:50.799 --> 00:32:53.509
contact form. And do use that contact
00:32:53.519 --> 00:32:55.909
form. Some of our favorite segments this
00:32:55.919 --> 00:32:58.070
year have come from listener questions,
00:32:58.080 --> 00:33:00.549
and we read every one of them.
00:33:00.559 --> 00:33:03.190
>> Go out tonight and look west. Venus will
00:33:03.200 --> 00:33:05.590
not be this bright again this year.
00:33:05.600 --> 00:33:08.389
>> And tomorrow night, look at the moon.
00:33:08.399 --> 00:33:09.909
>> We'll be back on the weekend with this
00:33:09.919 --> 00:33:12.389
week's weekend rap. Until then, clear
00:33:12.399 --> 00:33:24.389
skies.
00:33:24.399 --> 00:33:28.200
Stories told.