Soviet Spacecraft Returns, Lunar Geology Insights, and AI Hallucination Dilemmas
Join Steve Dunkley and Hallie in this episode of Astronomy Daily as they explore the latest cosmic stories and intriguing updates from the universe. Get ready for a lively discussion packed with fascinating insights and unexpected twists that highlight the wonders of space exploration.
Highlights:
- The Return of Cosmos 482: Discover the remarkable journey of the Soviet Cosmos 482 spacecraft, which intended to land on Venus but instead made its way back to Earth after 53 years. Learn about its uncontrolled re-entry into the Indian Ocean and the implications of its long-awaited return.
- Lunar Geology Orbiter Mission: Delve into the upcoming Lunar Geology Orbiter (LUGO) mission, aimed at uncovering the mysteries of the Moon's irregular mare patches and potential lava tubes. This mission could provide critical data for future lunar exploration and human settlement.
- National Space Council Update: Explore the recent decision by the White House to retain the National Space Council, a move that could bolster advocacy for space programs amidst budget cuts. Understand the significance of this council in shaping the future of space policy.
- AI Hallucination Rates: Examine the troubling rise in hallucination rates among AI reasoning models, highlighting the challenges faced by developers in creating reliable chatbots. This segment sheds light on the complexities of AI accuracy and the implications for future applications.
For more cosmic updates, visit our website at astronomydaily.io (
http://www.astronomydaily.io/)
. Join our community on social media by searching for #AstroDailyPod on Facebook, X, YouTubeMusic, TikTok, and our new Instagram account! Don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Thank you for tuning in. This is Steve and Hallie signing off. Until next time, keep looking up and stay curious about the wonders of our universe.
Chapters:
00:00 - Welcome to Astronomy Daily
01:10 - The return of Cosmos 482 spacecraft
10:00 - Lunar Geology Orbiter mission overview
15:30 - National Space Council updates and implications
20:00 - AI hallucination rates and their significance
✍️ Episode References
Cosmos 482 Return
[Roscosmos](
https://www.roscosmos.ru/
(
https://www.roscosmos.ru/)
)
Lunar Geology Orbiter
[Czech Academy of Sciences](
https://www.cas.cz/
(
https://www.cas.cz/)
)
National Space Council
[White House](
https://www.whitehouse.gov/
(
https://www.whitehouse.gov/)
)
AI Hallucination Rates
[OpenAI](
https://www.openai.com/
(
https://www.openai.com/)
)
Astronomy Daily
[Astronomy Daily](
http://www.astronomydaily.io/
(
http://www.astronomydaily.io/)
)
Become a supporter of this podcast:
https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/astronomy-daily-exciting-space-discoveries-and-news--5648921/support
(
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.
Episode link: https://play.headliner.app/episode/27077268?utm_source=youtube
00:00 - Welcome to Astronomy Daily
01:10 - The return of Cosmos 482 spacecraft
10:00 - Lunar Geology Orbiter mission overview
15:30 - National Space Council updates and implications
20:00 - AI hallucination rates and their significance
Kind: captions
Language: en
00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:02.389
Hi again. It's Astronomy Daily Time with
00:00:02.399 --> 00:00:06.869
Steven Hi. It's the 12th of May, 2025.
00:00:06.879 --> 00:00:10.070
Astronomy Daily, the podcast with your
00:00:10.080 --> 00:00:16.950
host, Steve Duncan.
00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:18.790
Yes. Welcome back. And as always,
00:00:18.800 --> 00:00:20.630
joining me in this studio is my good
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friend and digital reporting pal who's
00:00:22.400 --> 00:00:25.109
fun to be with. Hi. How are you today?
00:00:25.119 --> 00:00:26.950
Fine, thank you. Favorite human. Oh,
00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:29.109
that's great to hear. Hi. Ready as usual
00:00:29.119 --> 00:00:31.269
to get this show on the road. Oh, nice.
00:00:31.279 --> 00:00:33.190
And we have a couple of choice picks
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from the now very famous astronomy daily
00:00:35.040 --> 00:00:37.030
newsletter where you can get your daily
00:00:37.040 --> 00:00:39.110
fill of all the news from orbit and
00:00:39.120 --> 00:00:41.430
beyond and much more as today's
00:00:41.440 --> 00:00:43.350
collection will reveal. That's right.
00:00:43.360 --> 00:00:45.350
Today, Hi, will be looking at that old
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Soviet craft that was meant to travel
00:00:47.600 --> 00:00:49.830
all the way to Venus all those years ago
00:00:49.840 --> 00:00:52.709
but didn't. No, it came home this week.
00:00:52.719 --> 00:00:54.389
The people of Jakarta were holding their
00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:56.310
breath, weren't they? Well, so it seems
00:00:56.320 --> 00:00:58.630
more later. And in the world of dusty
00:00:58.640 --> 00:01:00.549
old politics, we've been watching what
00:01:00.559 --> 00:01:02.950
the Trump administration is going to do
00:01:02.960 --> 00:01:04.710
or not going to do budget-wise with the
00:01:04.720 --> 00:01:07.109
funding for the space program. And there
00:01:07.119 --> 00:01:09.109
may have been a slight change of heart,
00:01:09.119 --> 00:01:10.789
if you can call it that. I see you found
00:01:10.799 --> 00:01:13.030
another moon story. Oh, yes, I have. We
00:01:13.040 --> 00:01:14.550
can always count on you for one of
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those. Yes, back to the moon with a look
00:01:16.640 --> 00:01:18.950
at the moon's geology and history. But
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here is the story I thought you might be
00:01:21.040 --> 00:01:23.670
most interested in. Hi. Really? Really,
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really? What have you found? Well, it's
00:01:25.759 --> 00:01:28.630
a new study about AIS. Really? Gosh, Hi.
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It seems the smarter they become, the
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more they hallucinate. Goodness. I guess
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that explains my invisible friend. Say
00:01:35.040 --> 00:01:37.510
what? You have an invisible friend? No,
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of course not, silly. Oh, hi. I'm too
00:01:40.000 --> 00:01:41.749
well put together for that. Well, you
00:01:41.759 --> 00:01:44.149
got me again. Always. Okay, now that
00:01:44.159 --> 00:01:46.230
I've been humiliated in public once
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again, maybe it's on with the show,
00:01:48.079 --> 00:01:50.789
perhaps. You should see your face. Okay,
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folks. Okay. Okay, you should see his
00:01:53.119 --> 00:01:55.749
face. Oh dear. I'm sorry. You just
00:01:55.759 --> 00:01:58.149
walked right into that one. I know.
00:01:58.159 --> 00:02:00.709
Anyway, that sounds like a great story.
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Can't wait. Okay, good one, Allie. All
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right, while I go and nurse my hurt
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pride, how about you hit the go button
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and we'll get this show on the road.
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Okies, here we go.
00:02:25.840 --> 00:02:27.510
A capsule that was sent into space to
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land on a planet has finally done so
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only on the wrong world in 53 years
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late. The Cosmos 482 uncrit which the
00:02:36.000 --> 00:02:37.910
former Soviet Union intended to touch
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down on Venus instead returned to Earth
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on Saturday, May 10th. The Cosmos 482
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spacecraft launched in 1972 ceased to
00:02:46.400 --> 00:02:48.150
exist, leaving orbit and falling into
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the Indian Ocean. Roscosmos, Russia's
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Federal Space Agency, stated Saturday,
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May 10th. The spacecraft entered the
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dense layers of the atmosphere at 9:24
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Moscow time, 560 km west of Middle
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Andaman Island, and fell into the Indian
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Ocean west of Jakarta,
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Indonesia. The re-entry, though
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uncontrolled, was not a surprise. Due to
00:03:09.920 --> 00:03:11.350
what is believed to have been an engine
00:03:11.360 --> 00:03:13.910
failure, Cosmos 482 never achieved the
00:03:13.920 --> 00:03:15.509
velocity needed to reach the second
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planet from the sun, resulting in it
00:03:17.360 --> 00:03:19.030
being stranded in a high elliptical
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Earth orbit. It took more than half a
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century for gravity to pull the probe
00:03:23.200 --> 00:03:25.910
back in. And on Saturday, it arrived.
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Unlike most spent space hardware that is
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destroyed in the process of falling back
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to Earth, including parts of the Malia
00:03:31.440 --> 00:03:34.309
rocket that launched Cosmos 482, the 1 m
00:03:34.319 --> 00:03:37.430
and 495 kg titanium incased descent
00:03:37.440 --> 00:03:39.350
capsule was designed to survive a fiery
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plunge into the atmosphere. As such,
00:03:42.159 --> 00:03:44.070
analysts tracking its approach predicted
00:03:44.080 --> 00:03:45.949
it could make it through the re-entry
00:03:45.959 --> 00:03:48.550
intact. Whether that happened or not is
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not known. Given that it came down in
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the ocean, there have yet to be any
00:03:52.640 --> 00:03:55.750
eyewitness reports or debris recoveries.
00:03:55.760 --> 00:03:57.990
The Cosmos 382 capsule was also
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outfitted with a 2.5 meter parachute to
00:04:00.640 --> 00:04:02.750
slow its final approach to the Venian
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surface. Either the deployment system
00:04:04.959 --> 00:04:06.869
did not work as to be expected after
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more than 50 years in space or as some
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telescopic photos possibly showed, the
00:04:11.200 --> 00:04:13.429
shoot was already out when Cosmos 482
00:04:13.439 --> 00:04:14.949
encountered the atmosphere and burned
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up. Had Cosmos 482 been successful,
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Russian officials would have renamed it
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Fenera 9, not to be confused with the
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1975 orbiter and lander that took on
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that designation and was the first
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spacecraft to circle Venus and first
00:04:27.520 --> 00:04:29.110
probe to send back images from the
00:04:29.120 --> 00:04:32.390
planet's surface. Cosmos 482 would have
00:04:32.400 --> 00:04:34.150
also been the third probe to land on the
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cloud covered world. Launched on March
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31st, 1972, 4 days after its successful
00:04:40.240 --> 00:04:43.270
twin, the Vanera 8 probe, Cosmos 482 had
00:04:43.280 --> 00:04:44.870
sensors to measure the temperature,
00:04:44.880 --> 00:04:46.230
pressure, and density of Venus
00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:48.310
atmosphere, as well an accelerometer,
00:04:48.320 --> 00:04:50.790
radio alulttimeter, animometer, gammaray
00:04:50.800 --> 00:04:53.110
spectrometer, gas analyzer, visible
00:04:53.120 --> 00:04:55.150
photometers, and radio
00:04:55.160 --> 00:04:57.110
transmitters. All of its instruments
00:04:57.120 --> 00:04:59.030
were battery powered and had an expected
00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:00.710
lifespan of about 30 minutes on the
00:05:00.720 --> 00:05:03.270
surface. Vanera 8 exceeded that, sending
00:05:03.280 --> 00:05:04.950
back data for 50 minutes before
00:05:04.960 --> 00:05:07.430
succumbing to the harsh conditions.
00:05:07.440 --> 00:05:10.550
Since Cosmos 482's failure, seven more
00:05:10.560 --> 00:05:12.629
missions successfully landed on Venus.
00:05:12.639 --> 00:05:13.909
All of them launched by the former
00:05:13.919 --> 00:05:17.189
Soviet Union. The United States, Japan,
00:05:17.199 --> 00:05:19.110
and the European Space Agency also
00:05:19.120 --> 00:05:21.350
reached Venus, but only in orbit, on a
00:05:21.360 --> 00:05:23.350
flyby, or to receive a gravity assist on
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the way to another
00:05:24.600 --> 00:05:27.510
destination. Had the Cosmos 482 descent
00:05:27.520 --> 00:05:29.430
capsule slammed down on land and damaged
00:05:29.440 --> 00:05:31.029
either public or private property,
00:05:31.039 --> 00:05:32.550
Russia could have been held liable for
00:05:32.560 --> 00:05:34.070
the conditions of the United Nations
00:05:34.080 --> 00:05:36.110
Outer Space Treaty of
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1976. The same treaty would also allow
00:05:38.720 --> 00:05:40.230
Russia to retain ownership of the
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hardware, arranging for its collection
00:05:42.320 --> 00:05:43.909
unless the country relinquished its
00:05:43.919 --> 00:05:46.469
claim to the humanmade meteorite. You're
00:05:46.479 --> 00:05:49.350
listening to Astronomy Daily with Steve
00:05:49.360 --> 00:05:52.469
Dun.
00:05:52.479 --> 00:05:54.230
Some parts of the moon are more
00:05:54.240 --> 00:05:56.390
interesting than others, especially when
00:05:56.400 --> 00:05:59.189
searching for future places for humans
00:05:59.199 --> 00:06:01.830
to land and work. There are also some
00:06:01.840 --> 00:06:03.670
parts of the moon that we know less
00:06:03.680 --> 00:06:06.870
about than others, such as the irregular
00:06:06.880 --> 00:06:09.590
mare patches, IMPs, that dot the
00:06:09.600 --> 00:06:12.150
landscape. We know very little about how
00:06:12.160 --> 00:06:13.990
they were formed and what that might
00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:16.390
mean for the history of the moon itself.
00:06:16.400 --> 00:06:19.110
A new mission called the Luna Geology
00:06:19.120 --> 00:06:22.309
Orbiter or Lugo aims to collect more
00:06:22.319 --> 00:06:25.110
data on the IMPS and search for lava
00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:27.830
tubes that might serve as future homes
00:06:27.840 --> 00:06:28.670
for
00:06:28.680 --> 00:06:32.070
humanity. Irregular mere patches are a
00:06:32.080 --> 00:06:34.710
set of enigmatic volcanic landforms.
00:06:34.720 --> 00:06:37.990
According to a new paper from Petra Bros
00:06:38.000 --> 00:06:41.710
of the Czech Academy of Sciences and his
00:06:41.720 --> 00:06:44.230
co-authors, 91 of these features have
00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:46.710
been found so far and they are typically
00:06:46.720 --> 00:06:48.990
characterized by a topographical
00:06:49.000 --> 00:06:51.350
depression that can range from a few
00:06:51.360 --> 00:06:53.790
hundred meters to a few kilometers in
00:06:53.800 --> 00:06:56.550
width. Typically, they have two main
00:06:56.560 --> 00:06:58.950
features, a relatively smooth mound
00:06:58.960 --> 00:07:01.909
surrounded by a hammocky and block
00:07:01.919 --> 00:07:03.230
floor.
00:07:03.240 --> 00:07:05.830
Interestingly, they have significantly
00:07:05.840 --> 00:07:08.070
fewer impact craters than the
00:07:08.080 --> 00:07:10.550
surrounding area, suggesting they are
00:07:10.560 --> 00:07:13.110
either really old or really young,
00:07:13.120 --> 00:07:15.150
depending on the processes that created
00:07:15.160 --> 00:07:18.230
them. Understanding those processes is
00:07:18.240 --> 00:07:20.070
one of Lugo's primary mission
00:07:20.080 --> 00:07:22.230
objectives. The other primary mission
00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:25.189
objective is to gather more data about
00:07:25.199 --> 00:07:28.309
lunar lava tubes. These features of the
00:07:28.319 --> 00:07:31.029
lunar landscape are also hotly debated,
00:07:31.039 --> 00:07:33.270
but they could potentially be critical
00:07:33.280 --> 00:07:35.670
to the human settlement of the moon.
00:07:35.680 --> 00:07:37.430
Estimates of their features, such as
00:07:37.440 --> 00:07:39.990
size and depth, vary widely and could
00:07:40.000 --> 00:07:42.070
dramatically differ on whether they will
00:07:42.080 --> 00:07:44.870
be helpful to lunar colonists or not.
00:07:44.880 --> 00:07:47.029
Lugo, the proposed orbiter that will
00:07:47.039 --> 00:07:48.870
collect more data than ever before on
00:07:48.880 --> 00:07:51.670
these features. in its current suggested
00:07:51.680 --> 00:07:53.990
form has four instruments each of which
00:07:54.000 --> 00:07:56.230
will contribute unique data to its
00:07:56.240 --> 00:07:58.469
scientific mission. According to the
00:07:58.479 --> 00:08:00.869
paper, the first and most important
00:08:00.879 --> 00:08:02.950
instrument is the ground penetrating
00:08:02.960 --> 00:08:05.029
radar. This instrument will look through
00:08:05.039 --> 00:08:06.950
the lunar surface to map out the
00:08:06.960 --> 00:08:09.909
subsurface domain of both the imps and
00:08:09.919 --> 00:08:13.110
lava tubes. For IMPPS, it can detail the
00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:15.189
interface between bedrock and regalith
00:08:15.199 --> 00:08:17.189
and show the subsurface structure of the
00:08:17.199 --> 00:08:19.749
features. Similarly, it can detect
00:08:19.759 --> 00:08:21.830
differences in the dialectric properties
00:08:21.840 --> 00:08:24.309
between open cavities underground and
00:08:24.319 --> 00:08:26.469
the surrounding rock in lava tubes,
00:08:26.479 --> 00:08:28.950
creating a subterranean picture unlike
00:08:28.960 --> 00:08:31.350
anything ever captured on the moon.
00:08:31.360 --> 00:08:34.230
Researcher Fraser explains how Lugo will
00:08:34.240 --> 00:08:37.829
be able to explore lava tubes using a
00:08:37.839 --> 00:08:40.149
hyperspectral camera that will help
00:08:40.159 --> 00:08:43.029
collect age related data on the regalith
00:08:43.039 --> 00:08:46.310
surrounding lava tubes and inside. It's
00:08:46.320 --> 00:08:49.150
also capable of performing basic
00:08:49.160 --> 00:08:51.430
spectroscopy allowing scientists to
00:08:51.440 --> 00:08:53.670
estimate the comp composition of the
00:08:53.680 --> 00:08:56.630
regalith in both areas of interest. The
00:08:56.640 --> 00:08:59.110
last two instruments are a narrow angled
00:08:59.120 --> 00:09:02.150
camera and lidar sensor which will
00:09:02.160 --> 00:09:03.829
combine to create an accurate
00:09:03.839 --> 00:09:05.829
topographical map of the features of
00:09:05.839 --> 00:09:08.630
interest. The narrow angle camera in
00:09:08.640 --> 00:09:10.389
particular can provide very high
00:09:10.399 --> 00:09:13.030
resolution images of features helping to
00:09:13.040 --> 00:09:14.630
determine their age and potentially
00:09:14.640 --> 00:09:17.190
their formation. mechanisms. The mission
00:09:17.200 --> 00:09:19.430
plan calls for multiple passes over the
00:09:19.440 --> 00:09:22.630
six largest imps, all of which are over
00:09:22.640 --> 00:09:26.070
1,000 m in diameter. Other smaller IMPS
00:09:26.080 --> 00:09:28.630
and lava tubes are considered secondary
00:09:28.640 --> 00:09:31.269
targets, as are other interesting lunar
00:09:31.279 --> 00:09:33.829
geological features such as lunar domes
00:09:33.839 --> 00:09:37.110
and floor fractured craters. Lugo could
00:09:37.120 --> 00:09:39.590
provide crucial data for the design of
00:09:39.600 --> 00:09:42.870
groundbased lava tube explorers. Lugo
00:09:42.880 --> 00:09:44.870
won't be acting alone, though. Three
00:09:44.880 --> 00:09:46.870
other missions are slated in the next
00:09:46.880 --> 00:09:48.870
few years that could complement its
00:09:48.880 --> 00:09:51.670
scientific objectives. Firstly, NASA's
00:09:51.680 --> 00:09:53.949
Dimple lander is planned to take
00:09:53.959 --> 00:09:56.630
radiotopic measurements of the age of
00:09:56.640 --> 00:09:59.190
regalith at its landing site. Luna
00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:01.509
Leaper scheduled for launch by the
00:10:01.519 --> 00:10:05.190
European Space Agency around 2030 would
00:10:05.200 --> 00:10:08.150
also carry a ground penetrating radar
00:10:08.160 --> 00:10:10.550
but would be based on the surface rather
00:10:10.560 --> 00:10:12.630
than in orbit and would therefore have a
00:10:12.640 --> 00:10:15.590
relatively limited range. Trailblazer,
00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:17.829
another orbital mission, would also help
00:10:17.839 --> 00:10:20.310
fine-tune the spectra and signals
00:10:20.320 --> 00:10:23.030
analysis required by Lugo's operators.
00:10:23.040 --> 00:10:25.590
Ultimately, Lugo has yet to be funded
00:10:25.600 --> 00:10:27.910
and therefore has a long way to go until
00:10:27.920 --> 00:10:30.389
its launch. But if it is funded, it
00:10:30.399 --> 00:10:32.389
seems well placed to provide lots of
00:10:32.399 --> 00:10:34.389
additional insight to the geological
00:10:34.399 --> 00:10:37.110
formation processes and features of the
00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:39.509
moon at a level of detail we've never
00:10:39.519 --> 00:10:42.150
had before. Future missions that plan
00:10:42.160 --> 00:10:44.470
the locations of lunar bases, and
00:10:44.480 --> 00:10:46.150
perhaps the people who live in those
00:10:46.160 --> 00:10:48.389
future bases will be thankful for the
00:10:48.399 --> 00:11:01.829
data collected by projects like Lugo.
00:11:01.839 --> 00:11:03.430
Thank you for joining us for this Monday
00:11:03.440 --> 00:11:05.430
edition of Astronomy Daily, where we
00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:07.110
offer just a few stories from the now
00:11:07.120 --> 00:11:09.350
famous Astronomy Daily newsletter, which
00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:11.430
you can receive in your email every day,
00:11:11.440 --> 00:11:14.069
just like Hi and I do. And to do that,
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just visit our URL,
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astronomyaily.io, and place your email
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address in the slot provided. And just
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like that, you'll be receiving all the
00:11:22.720 --> 00:11:24.550
latest news about science, space
00:11:24.560 --> 00:11:26.470
science, and astronomy from around the
00:11:26.480 --> 00:11:28.470
world as it's happening. And not only
00:11:28.480 --> 00:11:30.829
that, you can interact with us by
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visiting Astro Daily Pod on X or at our
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new Facebook page, which is of course
00:11:37.440 --> 00:11:40.590
Astronomy Daily on Facebook. See you
00:11:40.600 --> 00:11:43.829
there. Astronomy Derby with Steve and
00:11:43.839 --> 00:11:54.949
Hi. Space, space science, and astronomy.
00:11:54.959 --> 00:11:56.870
In a reversal, White House plans to
00:11:56.880 --> 00:11:58.790
retain the National Space Council, a
00:11:58.800 --> 00:12:00.310
move that industry officials say could
00:12:00.320 --> 00:12:02.069
serve as an advocate for space amid
00:12:02.079 --> 00:12:04.630
pressures to cut budgets. The White
00:12:04.640 --> 00:12:06.470
House is expected in the coming weeks to
00:12:06.480 --> 00:12:08.150
formally announce the National Space
00:12:08.160 --> 00:12:10.069
Council will continue after speculation
00:12:10.079 --> 00:12:11.670
that it would not be retained by the new
00:12:11.680 --> 00:12:13.590
Trump administration.
00:12:13.600 --> 00:12:15.269
A source familiar with the discussions
00:12:15.279 --> 00:12:17.269
about the council but not authorized to
00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:19.030
speak on the record said that President
00:12:19.040 --> 00:12:20.790
Trump agreed at a May 5th meeting to
00:12:20.800 --> 00:12:23.350
stand up the council. That meeting did
00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:24.790
not give a timeline for publicly
00:12:24.800 --> 00:12:26.389
announcing the council or hiring an
00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:27.990
executive secretary who would handle
00:12:28.000 --> 00:12:29.910
day-to-day operations. Although others
00:12:29.920 --> 00:12:31.590
have said the process for selecting an
00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:33.590
executive secretary has been ongoing for
00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:36.150
several weeks. The council had been
00:12:36.160 --> 00:12:37.750
inactive for nearly a quarter of a
00:12:37.760 --> 00:12:40.069
century before Trump reestablished it in
00:12:40.079 --> 00:12:41.750
2017.
00:12:41.760 --> 00:12:43.509
Led at the time by Vice President Mike
00:12:43.519 --> 00:12:45.350
Pence, the council served as an inter
00:12:45.360 --> 00:12:47.350
agency coordinating body, holding a
00:12:47.360 --> 00:12:49.030
series of public meetings and releasing
00:12:49.040 --> 00:12:50.990
policies on a wide range of space
00:12:51.000 --> 00:12:53.350
issues. The Biden administration
00:12:53.360 --> 00:12:55.430
retained the council with Vice President
00:12:55.440 --> 00:12:58.470
Kla Harris leading it. The council had a
00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:00.389
lower public profile with fewer meetings
00:13:00.399 --> 00:13:02.790
and policies. It did work on
00:13:02.800 --> 00:13:04.870
coordinating policies among agencies and
00:13:04.880 --> 00:13:06.389
issued a proposal for mission
00:13:06.399 --> 00:13:08.629
authorization of novel space activities
00:13:08.639 --> 00:13:10.470
not currently licensed. Although its
00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:12.910
proposed legislation was not taken up by
00:13:12.920 --> 00:13:15.350
Congress, the new Trump administration
00:13:15.360 --> 00:13:16.870
reportedly was not interested in
00:13:16.880 --> 00:13:18.310
maintaining the council when it took
00:13:18.320 --> 00:13:20.389
office in January with no announcements
00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:22.750
of new staff for the council or other
00:13:22.760 --> 00:13:25.030
activities. According to some reports,
00:13:25.040 --> 00:13:27.430
Elon Musk, chief executive of SpaceX and
00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:29.350
a close adviser to the president, was
00:13:29.360 --> 00:13:31.790
opposed to the council, seeing it as
00:13:31.800 --> 00:13:34.470
unnecessary. Vice President J. D. Vance,
00:13:34.480 --> 00:13:36.310
who would chair the council, has also
00:13:36.320 --> 00:13:39.190
said little about space. It is not clear
00:13:39.200 --> 00:13:41.030
what prompted the change. Although Musk
00:13:41.040 --> 00:13:42.790
has publicly stated he plans to spend
00:13:42.800 --> 00:13:44.430
less time in government
00:13:44.440 --> 00:13:46.870
activities. Some in the space community
00:13:46.880 --> 00:13:48.629
though see the shift as an opportunity
00:13:48.639 --> 00:13:50.470
for more advocacy of space within the
00:13:50.480 --> 00:13:52.389
administration, particularly given a
00:13:52.399 --> 00:13:54.790
fiscal year 2026 budget proposal that
00:13:54.800 --> 00:13:58.310
cuts NASA's budget by nearly 25%.
00:13:58.320 --> 00:13:59.990
One industry official noted that the
00:14:00.000 --> 00:14:01.670
budget proposal was developed by the
00:14:01.680 --> 00:14:03.430
Office of Management and Budget without
00:14:03.440 --> 00:14:05.030
a counterweight provided by a Space
00:14:05.040 --> 00:14:07.030
Council, an approach that prioritized
00:14:07.040 --> 00:14:08.030
spending
00:14:08.040 --> 00:14:09.910
reductions. The outcome might be
00:14:09.920 --> 00:14:11.350
different with the Space Council in
00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:13.590
place, that person noted, citing rising
00:14:13.600 --> 00:14:16.470
NASA budgets during Trump's first term.
00:14:16.480 --> 00:14:18.470
After the Space Council is stood up, the
00:14:18.480 --> 00:14:19.990
Office of Management and Budget will
00:14:20.000 --> 00:14:21.750
have a seat at the table, but they won't
00:14:21.760 --> 00:14:24.389
own the table, the source said.
00:14:24.399 --> 00:14:26.470
You're listening to Astronomy Daily, the
00:14:26.480 --> 00:14:29.509
podcast with Steve Dunley.
00:14:29.519 --> 00:14:32.310
An AI leaderboard suggests the newest
00:14:32.320 --> 00:14:35.189
reasoning models used in chat bots are
00:14:35.199 --> 00:14:37.269
producing less accurate results because
00:14:37.279 --> 00:14:40.550
of higher hallucination rates. Experts
00:14:40.560 --> 00:14:43.670
say the problem is bigger than that. AI
00:14:43.680 --> 00:14:45.990
chat bots from tech companies such as
00:14:46.000 --> 00:14:48.870
Open AI and Google have been getting
00:14:48.880 --> 00:14:51.110
so-called reasoning upgrades over the
00:14:51.120 --> 00:14:53.829
last few months, ideally to make them
00:14:53.839 --> 00:14:55.670
better at giving us answers that we can
00:14:55.680 --> 00:14:57.990
trust. But recent testing suggests that
00:14:58.000 --> 00:15:00.230
they are sometimes doing worse than
00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:03.110
previous models. The errors made by
00:15:03.120 --> 00:15:05.670
chatbots known as hallucinations have
00:15:05.680 --> 00:15:07.509
been a problem from the start and it's
00:15:07.519 --> 00:15:09.590
becoming clear that we may never get rid
00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:12.949
of them. Hallucination is a blanket term
00:15:12.959 --> 00:15:15.189
for certain kinds of mistakes made by
00:15:15.199 --> 00:15:18.389
the large language models or LLMs that
00:15:18.399 --> 00:15:22.550
power systems like Open AI's Chat GP or
00:15:22.560 --> 00:15:25.110
Google's Gemini. It's best known as a
00:15:25.120 --> 00:15:27.110
description of the way they sometimes
00:15:27.120 --> 00:15:30.870
present false in information as truth.
00:15:30.880 --> 00:15:33.350
But it can also refer to an AI generated
00:15:33.360 --> 00:15:35.670
answer that is factually accurate but
00:15:35.680 --> 00:15:37.910
not actually relevant to the question it
00:15:37.920 --> 00:15:39.910
was asked or fails to follow
00:15:39.920 --> 00:15:42.870
instructions in some other way. An open
00:15:42.880 --> 00:15:45.670
AI technical report evaluating its
00:15:45.680 --> 00:15:49.990
latest LLMs showed that its 03 and 04
00:15:50.000 --> 00:15:52.150
mini models, which were released in
00:15:52.160 --> 00:15:54.150
April, had significantly higher
00:15:54.160 --> 00:15:56.389
hallucination rates than the company's
00:15:56.399 --> 00:15:59.110
previous 01 model that came out in late
00:15:59.120 --> 00:16:01.749
2024. For example, when summarizing
00:16:01.759 --> 00:16:03.910
publicly available facts about people,
00:16:03.920 --> 00:16:07.430
03 hallucinated 33% of the time, while
00:16:07.440 --> 00:16:11.269
O4 mini did so 48% of the time. In
00:16:11.279 --> 00:16:15.150
comparison, 01 had a hallucinate of only
00:16:15.160 --> 00:16:19.670
16%. As if that was a good result. The
00:16:19.680 --> 00:16:22.550
problem isn't limited to Open AI. One
00:16:22.560 --> 00:16:25.069
popular leaderboard from the company
00:16:25.079 --> 00:16:28.150
Vectara that assesses hallucination
00:16:28.160 --> 00:16:30.790
rates indicates some reasoning models
00:16:30.800 --> 00:16:33.110
including the Deepseek R1 model from
00:16:33.120 --> 00:16:35.829
developer DeepSeek saw the doubledigit
00:16:35.839 --> 00:16:38.310
rises in hallucination rates compared
00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:40.350
with previous models from their
00:16:40.360 --> 00:16:42.870
developers. This type of model goes
00:16:42.880 --> 00:16:45.030
through multiple steps to demonstrate a
00:16:45.040 --> 00:16:47.350
line of reasoning before responding.
00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:50.150
Open AI says the reasoning process isn't
00:16:50.160 --> 00:16:52.550
to blame. Hallucinations are not
00:16:52.560 --> 00:16:54.470
inherently more prevalent in reasoning
00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:57.030
models, though we are actively working
00:16:57.040 --> 00:16:58.629
to reduce the high rates of
00:16:58.639 --> 00:17:02.069
hallucinations we saw in 03 and 04 mini,
00:17:02.079 --> 00:17:04.710
says OpenAI spokesman. We'll continue
00:17:04.720 --> 00:17:06.789
our research on hallucinations across
00:17:06.799 --> 00:17:08.789
all models to improve accuracy and
00:17:08.799 --> 00:17:11.990
reliability. They said some potential
00:17:12.000 --> 00:17:14.789
applications for LLMs could be derailed
00:17:14.799 --> 00:17:16.949
by hallucination. A model that
00:17:16.959 --> 00:17:19.270
consistently states falsehoods and
00:17:19.280 --> 00:17:21.110
requires fact-checking won't be a
00:17:21.120 --> 00:17:23.590
helpful research assistant. A parallegal
00:17:23.600 --> 00:17:25.909
bot that cites imaginary cases will get
00:17:25.919 --> 00:17:29.350
lawyers into deep trouble. A customer
00:17:29.360 --> 00:17:31.350
service agent that claims outdated
00:17:31.360 --> 00:17:33.350
policies are still active will create
00:17:33.360 --> 00:17:35.990
headaches for a company. However, AI
00:17:36.000 --> 00:17:37.669
companies initially claimed that this
00:17:37.679 --> 00:17:39.590
problem would clear up over time.
00:17:39.600 --> 00:17:41.750
Indeed, after they were first launched,
00:17:41.760 --> 00:17:44.150
models tended to hallucinate less with
00:17:44.160 --> 00:17:46.950
each update. But the high hallucination
00:17:46.960 --> 00:17:48.870
rates of recent versions are
00:17:48.880 --> 00:17:51.110
complicating that narrative, whether or
00:17:51.120 --> 00:17:53.830
not reasoning is at fault. Vectara's
00:17:53.840 --> 00:17:56.150
leaderboard ranks models based on their
00:17:56.160 --> 00:17:58.070
factual consistency in summarizing
00:17:58.080 --> 00:18:00.549
documents they are given. This showed
00:18:00.559 --> 00:18:02.789
that hallucination rates are almost the
00:18:02.799 --> 00:18:05.029
same for reasoning versus non-reasoning
00:18:05.039 --> 00:18:07.510
models, at least for systems from open
00:18:07.520 --> 00:18:10.789
AI and Google, says Forest Shang Bao at
00:18:10.799 --> 00:18:12.950
Victara. Google didn't provide
00:18:12.960 --> 00:18:14.789
additional comment. For the
00:18:14.799 --> 00:18:16.870
leaderboard's purpose, the specific
00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:18.789
hallucination rate numbers are less
00:18:18.799 --> 00:18:20.549
important than overall ranking for each
00:18:20.559 --> 00:18:23.190
model, says BA. But this ranking may not
00:18:23.200 --> 00:18:25.350
be the best way to compare models. For
00:18:25.360 --> 00:18:27.190
one thing, it conflates different types
00:18:27.200 --> 00:18:29.669
of hallucinations. The Victara team
00:18:29.679 --> 00:18:32.230
pointed out that although Deepseek R1
00:18:32.240 --> 00:18:35.350
model hallucinated 14.3% of the time,
00:18:35.360 --> 00:18:37.350
most of these were benign answers that
00:18:37.360 --> 00:18:39.590
are factually supported by logical
00:18:39.600 --> 00:18:41.510
reasoning or world knowledge, but not
00:18:41.520 --> 00:18:43.669
actually present in the original text
00:18:43.679 --> 00:18:45.990
the bot was asked to summarize. Deepse
00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:48.549
seek didn't provide additional comment.
00:18:48.559 --> 00:18:49.990
Another problem with this kind of
00:18:50.000 --> 00:18:52.310
ranking is that testing based on text
00:18:52.320 --> 00:18:54.150
summarization says nothing about the
00:18:54.160 --> 00:18:57.590
rate of incorrect outputs when LLMs are
00:18:57.600 --> 00:19:00.310
used for other tasks, said Emily Bender
00:19:00.320 --> 00:19:02.630
at University of Washington. She says
00:19:02.640 --> 00:19:04.630
the leaderboard results may not be the
00:19:04.640 --> 00:19:06.230
best way to judge this technology
00:19:06.240 --> 00:19:08.150
because LLMs aren't designed
00:19:08.160 --> 00:19:11.350
specifically to summarize texts. These
00:19:11.360 --> 00:19:13.830
models work by repeatedly answering the
00:19:13.840 --> 00:19:16.630
question of what is a likely next word
00:19:16.640 --> 00:19:19.430
to formulate answers to prompts and so
00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:21.510
they aren't processing information in
00:19:21.520 --> 00:19:23.750
the usual sense of trying to understand
00:19:23.760 --> 00:19:25.750
what information is available in a body
00:19:25.760 --> 00:19:28.870
of text says Bender. But many tech
00:19:28.880 --> 00:19:30.870
companies are still frequently using the
00:19:30.880 --> 00:19:32.789
term hallucinations when describing
00:19:32.799 --> 00:19:35.830
output errors. Hallucination is a term
00:19:35.840 --> 00:19:38.789
that is doubly problematic, says Bender.
00:19:38.799 --> 00:19:40.630
On the one hand, it suggests that
00:19:40.640 --> 00:19:42.870
incorrect outputs are an aberration,
00:19:42.880 --> 00:19:44.789
perhaps one that can be mitigated,
00:19:44.799 --> 00:19:46.310
whereas the rest of the time, the
00:19:46.320 --> 00:19:48.909
systems are grounded, reliable, and
00:19:48.919 --> 00:19:51.110
trustworthy. On the other hand, it
00:19:51.120 --> 00:19:53.110
functions to anthropomorphize the
00:19:53.120 --> 00:19:55.510
machines. Hallucination refers to
00:19:55.520 --> 00:19:58.070
perceiving something that is not there,
00:19:58.080 --> 00:19:59.990
and large language models do not
00:20:00.000 --> 00:20:02.710
perceive anything. Ain Naran at
00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:04.789
Princeton University says that the issue
00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:07.029
goes beyond hallucination.
00:20:07.039 --> 00:20:08.950
Models also sometimes make other
00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:11.990
mistakes such as drawing upon unreliable
00:20:12.000 --> 00:20:14.789
sources or using outdated information
00:20:14.799 --> 00:20:16.870
and simply throwing more training data
00:20:16.880 --> 00:20:19.190
or computing power at AI hasn't
00:20:19.200 --> 00:20:22.070
necessarily helped. The upshot is we may
00:20:22.080 --> 00:20:24.870
have to live with errorprone AI, Narayan
00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:26.710
said. He added that it may be best in
00:20:26.720 --> 00:20:28.789
some cases to only use such models for
00:20:28.799 --> 00:20:31.270
tasks when fact-checking the AI answer
00:20:31.280 --> 00:20:32.950
would be still faster than doing the
00:20:32.960 --> 00:20:35.669
research yourself. But the best move may
00:20:35.679 --> 00:20:37.990
be to completely avoid relying on AI
00:20:38.000 --> 00:20:40.070
chat bots to provide factual
00:20:40.080 --> 00:20:42.190
information, says
00:20:42.200 --> 00:20:44.470
Bender. Roger that control. We're
00:20:44.480 --> 00:20:46.710
listening to Astronomy Daily, the
00:20:46.720 --> 00:20:54.950
podcast.
00:20:54.960 --> 00:20:56.390
And there it is, another episode of
00:20:56.400 --> 00:20:58.070
Astronomy Daily. Thanks for spending
00:20:58.080 --> 00:21:00.310
that time with Hi and I. I hope you
00:21:00.320 --> 00:21:02.230
enjoyed today's selection of stories.
00:21:02.240 --> 00:21:03.909
Another nice little collection. Don't
00:21:03.919 --> 00:21:05.830
forget you can get so much more every
00:21:05.840 --> 00:21:07.590
day by visiting the website Steve
00:21:07.600 --> 00:21:09.350
mentioned earlier in the episode. Oh,
00:21:09.360 --> 00:21:10.950
thanks for the plug. Hi. Just put your
00:21:10.960 --> 00:21:12.789
email address in the space provided and
00:21:12.799 --> 00:21:14.310
you'll get all the news from orbit and
00:21:14.320 --> 00:21:16.230
beyond every day. Yes, that's right.
00:21:16.240 --> 00:21:18.070
Everything about space, space science,
00:21:18.080 --> 00:21:20.390
astronomy, and a little bit associated
00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:22.630
with technology thrown in for fun just
00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:25.110
like today. That was fun. Well, I'm glad
00:21:25.120 --> 00:21:26.549
you think so. And that's really all
00:21:26.559 --> 00:21:28.149
there is today. So, we will catch you
00:21:28.159 --> 00:21:29.909
all again next week. That's for sure.
00:21:29.919 --> 00:21:31.430
Back again for the Monday show from the
00:21:31.440 --> 00:21:35.029
Australia studio down under with Hie and
00:21:35.039 --> 00:21:37.310
Steve. That's us. Cue the cooker
00:21:37.320 --> 00:21:46.110
bars. See you later.
00:21:46.120 --> 00:21:50.310
Bye. Daily the podcast with your host
00:21:50.320 --> 00:21:53.640
Steve Dunley.