Runaway Black Hole Confirmed, Mercury Still Active & 2032 Moon Impact Risk


Join hosts Anna and Avery for an exciting journey through today's most compelling space stories. We explore Mercury's surprising geological activity, NASA's TESS satellite recovery, a frigid Earth-like exoplanet discovery, an accelerated ISS crew launch, runaway black holes tearing through space, and the scientific opportunities of a potential lunar asteroid impact in 2032.
### Episode Highlights
**Mercury's Hidden Activity**
New research reveals that Mercury, long considered geologically dead, is still actively losing volatile materials from its interior. Using AI analysis of 100,000 MESSENGER images, scientists have mapped 400 bright slope streaks that indicate ongoing geological processes. The BepiColombo mission will provide unprecedented new data when it arrives at Mercury.
**TESS Satellite Recovery**
NASA's planet-hunting TESS satellite recently entered safe mode after a command error caused solar panel misalignment. The spacecraft successfully recovered, demonstrating the importance of built-in safeguards. NASA is reviewing procedures to prevent future incidents.
**Ice-Cold Earth Twin**
Astronomers have discovered HD 137010 b, an Earth-like exoplanet 146 light-years away that could be as cold as minus 90°F. Despite frigid temperatures, it orbits within its star's habitable zone, offering insights into the diversity of potentially habitable worlds.
**Crew-12 Launch Advanced**
SpaceX and NASA have moved up the Crew-12 launch to February 11, four days earlier than planned, to provide relief for the three-person skeleton crew managing the ISS after the first-ever medical evacuation from the station.
**Runaway Black Holes Confirmed**
The James Webb Space Telescope has confirmed the first runaway supermassive black hole, ejected from its galaxy and leaving a 200,000 light-year trail of newborn stars. Traveling at 1,600 km/s, this discovery validates 50-year-old theoretical predictions.
**Moon Impact Opportunity**
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. While posing risks to satellites and Earth, such an impact would provide unprecedented scientific data on lunar geology, create spectacular meteor displays, and deliver free lunar samples to Earth.
### Featured Stories
1. **Mercury Still Geologically Active** - University of Bern researchers discover 400 bright streaks indicating ongoing volatile loss (Source: Space Daily)
2. **TESS Satellite Command Error** - NASA's exoplanet hunter recovers from safe mode after solar panel misalignment (Source: Daily Galaxy)
3. **Frigid Earth-Like Planet Discovery** - HD 137010 b joins the search for Earth's twin despite extreme cold (Source: Daily Galaxy)
4. **ISS Crew-12 Launch Moved Up** - February 11 launch provides relief after historic medical evacuation (Source: Space.com)
5. **First Confirmed Runaway Black Hole** - JWST observations validate theoretical predictions with stunning stellar trail (Source: Phys.org/Science Sources)
6. **Asteroid 2024 YR4 Lunar Impact** - 4% chance creates scientific opportunity and satellite risk in 2032 (Source: Universe Today)
### Hosts
Anna and Avery
### Links & Resources
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Episode link: https://play.headliner.app/episode/31389097?utm_source=youtube
Kind: captions
Language: en
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Welcome to Astronomy [music] Daily, your
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source for the latest space and
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astronomy news. I'm Anna.
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>> And I'm Avery. Thanks for joining us on
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this Thursday, February 29th, [music]
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2026. We've got a fascinating lineup
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today, covering everything from
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Mercury's surprising geological activity
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to a possible [music] asteroid impact on
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the moon.
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>> That's right. We're going to explore
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bright streaks on Mercury that suggest
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[music] our smallest planet is still
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geologically active. Check in on NASA's
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[music] test satellite after a command
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error temporarily sidelined it. And
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discuss the discovery of an intriguing
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Earthlike exoplanet that's much [music]
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colder than you might expect. Plus,
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we'll bring you updates on NASA and
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SpaceX moving up the Crew 12 launch to
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help out the skeleton crew [music]
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currently on the International Space
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Station. Then we'll dive into the wild
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world of runaway black holes tearing
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through space and wrap up with what
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could be a once-in-a-lifetime [music]
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scientific opportunity if an asteroid
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hits the moon in 2032.
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>> It's quite a ride today. [music] Let's
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get started with some surprising news
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from the innermost planet in our solar
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system.
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>> Mercury has long been viewed as a small
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geologically dead world, but new
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research is challenging that assumption
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in a big way. A team led by researchers
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at the University of Burn has uncovered
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hundreds of bright linear streaks on
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crater slopes that point to ongoing
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volcanic activity and volatile loss from
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Mercury's interior.
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>> This is really fascinating work, Avery.
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The team applied deep learning
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techniques to analyze about 100,000
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highresolution images taken by NASA's
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Messenger spacecraft during its orbital
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mission from 2011 to 2015. Using this
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automated approach, they mapped the
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global distribution of roughly 400
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bright streaks that had previously
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escaped comprehensive cataloging.
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>> And what they found was pretty telling.
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These features, known as slope lineier,
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occur preferentially on sun-facing
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slopes inside relatively young impact
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craters that cut through thick volcanic
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deposits. The concentration of streaks
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in these thermally stressed environments
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indicates that solar heating is an
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important trigger for volatile escape
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from near surface layers. Much of these
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streaks originate in small bright
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depressions called hollows that dot
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crater floors and walls. These hollows
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have long been interpreted as products
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of volatile loss and their close
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association with the lineier supports
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the view that both structures form when
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volatile components like sulfur or other
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light elements escape from the
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subsurface.
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>> According to the research team, fracture
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networks created by the original impact
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events likely provide pathways that
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allow volatile rich material from deeper
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levels to reach the surface. As solar
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radiation warms these exposed zones,
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volatiles can escape into space, driving
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the development or modification of the
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bright streaks down slope. What's
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particularly exciting is the timing.
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This research arrives just as the joint
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ESA and JAXA Becky Columbbo mission is
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on route to Mercury. The mission carries
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an advanced payload that includes
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several key contributions from the
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University of Burn.
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>> Absolutely. The Becky Columbbo laser
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altimeter or Bella was designed and
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built in part at the University of Burn.
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It will use laser pulses from an orbit
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roughly a thousand km above the surface
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to measure elevations with about 10 cm
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precision, enabling a detailed
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reconstruction of Mercury's topography.
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The burn team also contributed the ion
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optical system for Stroio, a NASA mass
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spectrometer on Bey Columbo that will
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measure the composition of Mercury's
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extremely thin atmosphere, connecting
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present-day volatile escape at the
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surface to the surrounding exosphere.
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The research team plans to use the
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current inventory of slope streaks as a
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baseline for future comparisons once
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Beepy Columbbo begins returning data. By
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imaging key regions again, they aim to
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determine whether new streaks have
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formed or existing ones have changed
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since the messenger era. Any such
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changes would provide strong evidence
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that volatiled driven processes are
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still reshaping Mercury's surface on
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human [snorts] time scales.
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>> It's a great reminder that even our
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smallest, closest planetary neighbor
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still has secrets to reveal. Mercury is
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far more dynamic than we thought.
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Shifting from Mercury to our planet
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hunting efforts, NASA's Transiting
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Exoplanet Survey Satellite, or TESS,
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recently had a bit of a scare when a
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command error temporarily knocked it
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offline. Right, the spacecraft was
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forced into safe mode after an
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unexpected command error caused its
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solar panels to misalign with the sun.
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This misalignment had serious
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consequences because the panels were
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unable to charge Tessa's batteries,
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leading to a low power condition that
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triggered the automatic transition to
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safe mode. In safe mode, all
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non-essential systems are turned off to
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conserve power, and the spacecraft
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awaits further instructions from ground
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controllers. NASA engineers quickly work
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to resolve the issue. And fortunately,
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TESS safe mode performed as intended,
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protecting the spacecraft from permanent
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damage. This incident is actually
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reminiscent of past missing failures.
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Remember Viking 1 back in 1982? A faulty
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command caused the loss of communication
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and there was that catastrophic series
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of events that nearly destroyed the SOHO
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probe in 1998. But unlike those cases,
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TESS was fortunate to have safeguards in
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place.
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>> Exactly. The spacecraft's automatic safe
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mode kicked in when the power situation
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became critical. The safe mode is
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designed to preserve the spacecraft's
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core functions such as attitude control
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and ensure it can be reactivated once
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engineers identify and address the
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issue. According to NASA, the mission
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team is now reviewing and updating
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procedures to prevent this command error
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from happening in the future. It's a
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good reminder that even with advanced
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technology, human error remains a
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significant challenge in space
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operations.
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>> Absolutely. While Tessa's recovery was
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successful and demonstrates how far
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space mission technology has come, this
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incident emphasizes the need for
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continued vigilance in mission planning.
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The risk of human error is always there
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and the consequences can be costly in
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terms of both time and resources.
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>> The good news is that TESS is back
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online and continuing its important work
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of hunting for exoplanets, which brings
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us nicely to our next story about a
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newly discovered Earthlike world.
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Speaking of exoplanets, astronomers have
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just discovered what might be one of the
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closest things we have to Earth's twin,
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though it's considerably colder than our
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home planet. The exoplanet is called
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HD137010b,
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and it's located 146 lighty years away.
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It's slightly larger than Earth and
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orbits a star that resembles our sun.
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However, despite its similarities to
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Earth in terms of size and orbital
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period, its surface could be far colder
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than even Mars, potentially reaching a
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frigid -90° F or -68° C.
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>> This discovery was published in the
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astrophysical journal Letters and was
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made by an international team led by
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Alexander Venner. The search for
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Earthlike exoplanets has been a central
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focus of astronomical research for over
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three decades now. Dr. Hang, a key
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member of the research team, explained
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it well when he said, "Since the
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discovery of the first exoplanet 30
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years ago, we've always tried to find
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Earth's Trin. HD137010b
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could bring us closer to that goal,
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although it's not an exact match. The
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planet is positioned in what astronomers
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call the habitable zone of its star,
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which is the area where water could
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potentially exist in liquid form, which
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is crucial for life as we know it.
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However, there's a major obstacle.
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>> Right? The star HD137010b
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orbits is cooler and dimmer than our
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sun, meaning the planet receives only a
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fraction of the energy Earth does. This
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could result in surface temperatures as
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low as -90° F, making it one of the
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coldest exoplanets discovered in recent
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years. But scientists remain hopeful.
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Dr. Venner pointed out that while the
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planet's surface might be frozen, it
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could still fall within the broader
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optimistic habitable zone of its star.
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With the right atmospheric conditions,
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HD137010b
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might not be as inhospitable as its
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temperature suggests. One of the
00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:53.990
challenges of studying this planet is
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its orbital distance from its star,
00:08:56.320 --> 00:08:58.470
which is similar to Earth's, but much
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farther than the typical exoplanets that
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are easier to observe. Transits, when
00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:05.590
the planet crosses in front of its star,
00:09:05.600 --> 00:09:08.070
happen less frequently, making it harder
00:09:08.080 --> 00:09:10.630
to confirm the planet's existence.
00:09:10.640 --> 00:09:12.550
>> The discovery was made from a single
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transit captured by NASA's Kepler Space
00:09:15.040 --> 00:09:17.430
Telescope. Further confirmation of the
00:09:17.440 --> 00:09:19.829
planet's existence and detailed analysis
00:09:19.839 --> 00:09:22.470
of its mass and atmosphere will require
00:09:22.480 --> 00:09:24.630
more data, which might not be possible
00:09:24.640 --> 00:09:26.710
until the next generation of telescopes
00:09:26.720 --> 00:09:28.150
become operational.
00:09:28.160 --> 00:09:30.470
>> It's an exciting discovery that adds to
00:09:30.480 --> 00:09:32.310
our understanding of the types of
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environments where life could
00:09:33.920 --> 00:09:36.070
potentially exist beyond our solar
00:09:36.080 --> 00:09:41.030
system. Even if HD137010B
00:09:41.040 --> 00:09:43.670
is too cold for life as we know it, it
00:09:43.680 --> 00:09:45.670
teaches us valuable lessons about
00:09:45.680 --> 00:09:47.829
planetary habitability.
00:09:47.839 --> 00:09:49.829
>> Now, let's turn our attention back to
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Earth orbit and the International Space
00:09:52.080 --> 00:09:54.790
Station. NASA has announced an earlier
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than expected target date to launch the
00:09:56.959 --> 00:09:59.430
next astronauts to the ISS.
00:09:59.440 --> 00:10:01.590
>> That's right. The agency is now
00:10:01.600 --> 00:10:04.389
targeting February 11th for liftoff of
00:10:04.399 --> 00:10:07.350
Space X Crew 12 mission, which will fly
00:10:07.360 --> 00:10:09.590
four astronauts to join the skeleton
00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:11.829
crew presently operating the orbital
00:10:11.839 --> 00:10:14.550
laboratory. That's 4 days earlier than
00:10:14.560 --> 00:10:16.069
originally planned.
00:10:16.079 --> 00:10:18.470
>> Just to give everyone context, currently
00:10:18.480 --> 00:10:20.470
only three crew members are covering the
00:10:20.480 --> 00:10:22.310
maintenance and science investigations
00:10:22.320 --> 00:10:25.110
aboard the ISS. They were left behind on
00:10:25.120 --> 00:10:27.910
January 14th by the early departure of
00:10:27.920 --> 00:10:30.710
crew 11 on the station's first ever
00:10:30.720 --> 00:10:33.430
medical evacuation. The crew 12
00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:35.750
astronauts were already in line to take
00:10:35.760 --> 00:10:38.389
the crew 11's quartet's place, but they
00:10:38.399 --> 00:10:40.630
had originally been scheduled to overlap
00:10:40.640 --> 00:10:43.030
with them before their return to Earth.
00:10:43.040 --> 00:10:45.670
SpaceX and NASA had originally targeted
00:10:45.680 --> 00:10:48.630
February 15th for Crew 12's launch, but
00:10:48.640 --> 00:10:50.790
managed to get the mission's Crew Dragon
00:10:50.800 --> 00:10:53.350
spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket ready
00:10:53.360 --> 00:10:54.550
ahead of schedule.
00:10:54.560 --> 00:10:57.110
>> The Crew 12 team includes NASA
00:10:57.120 --> 00:10:59.350
astronauts Jessica Mir, who's the
00:10:59.360 --> 00:11:01.990
mission commander, and Jack Hathaway as
00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:04.550
pilot. The mission specialists are
00:11:04.560 --> 00:11:07.030
Sophie Adinot of the European Space
00:11:07.040 --> 00:11:10.389
Agency, and Ross Cosmos cosminaut Andre
00:11:10.399 --> 00:11:13.670
Fedyv. Interestingly, Fedyav was a
00:11:13.680 --> 00:11:15.350
relatively late replacement for
00:11:15.360 --> 00:11:17.990
cosminaut Alleg Ardmiv, who was pulled
00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:20.949
off crew 12 in early December, possibly
00:11:20.959 --> 00:11:23.430
for violating US national security
00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:26.230
regulations. This quartet will fly the
00:11:26.240 --> 00:11:28.630
Crew Dragon capsule named Grace to the
00:11:28.640 --> 00:11:31.430
ISS for a longer than normal assignment
00:11:31.440 --> 00:11:33.670
lasting 9 months instead of the typical
00:11:33.680 --> 00:11:35.829
6 months. It'll be the second space
00:11:35.839 --> 00:11:38.389
flight for both Mayor and Fedyav, while
00:11:38.399 --> 00:11:41.110
Hathaway and Adeno are both spaceflight
00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:42.870
rookies headed to orbit for the first
00:11:42.880 --> 00:11:45.269
time. The launch window opens on
00:11:45.279 --> 00:11:48.069
February 11th at 6:00 a.m. Eastern time
00:11:48.079 --> 00:11:50.870
from launch complex 40 at Cape Canaveral
00:11:50.880 --> 00:11:53.509
Space Force Station in Florida. If they
00:11:53.519 --> 00:11:55.430
don't manage to launch that day, there
00:11:55.440 --> 00:11:57.509
are backup opportunities on February
00:11:57.519 --> 00:12:00.710
12th and 13th. The crew 12 astronauts
00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:02.630
will join NASA Chris Williams and
00:12:02.640 --> 00:12:05.509
cosminauts Sergey Kuds Verskovv and
00:12:05.519 --> 00:12:08.790
Serge Mikayv as part of ISS expedition
00:12:08.800 --> 00:12:11.509
74 which will eventually transition to
00:12:11.519 --> 00:12:14.550
expedition 75 before the end of crew
00:12:14.560 --> 00:12:16.790
12's rotation. It's great to see the
00:12:16.800 --> 00:12:18.710
relief crew heading up sooner to help
00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:20.790
out the skeleton crew currently managing
00:12:20.800 --> 00:12:21.990
the station.
00:12:22.000 --> 00:12:24.949
>> Now for something truly mindbending.
00:12:24.959 --> 00:12:27.110
Astronomers have confirmed the first
00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:29.670
runaway super massive black hole, and
00:12:29.680 --> 00:12:32.150
it's leaving quite a trail behind it.
00:12:32.160 --> 00:12:35.030
>> This is wild stuff, Anna. The black hole
00:12:35.040 --> 00:12:37.829
was identified by a 200,000 light-year
00:12:37.839 --> 00:12:40.310
tail and a supersonic bow shock in the
00:12:40.320 --> 00:12:43.110
cosmic owl galaxy, which is actually a
00:12:43.120 --> 00:12:46.230
pair of ring galaxies about 8.8 billion
00:12:46.240 --> 00:12:48.949
lightyears away. The rings appear as owl
00:12:48.959 --> 00:12:50.870
eyes as they get closer and closer to
00:12:50.880 --> 00:12:53.670
merging. The research led by Peter von
00:12:53.680 --> 00:12:56.230
Dakam from Yale's astronomy department
00:12:56.240 --> 00:12:58.550
was confirmed using observations from
00:12:58.560 --> 00:13:01.430
the James Webb Space Telescope. The
00:13:01.440 --> 00:13:03.670
central proposal is that this linear
00:13:03.680 --> 00:13:06.150
feature is the wake behind a runaway
00:13:06.160 --> 00:13:08.790
super massive black hole and this is
00:13:08.800 --> 00:13:11.110
strongly supported by their analysis.
00:13:11.120 --> 00:13:12.470
>> But how does something weighing
00:13:12.480 --> 00:13:14.870
potentially millions or even billions of
00:13:14.880 --> 00:13:16.949
times the mass of our sun get kicked out
00:13:16.959 --> 00:13:19.750
of a galaxy? The answer lies in galaxy
00:13:19.760 --> 00:13:22.389
mergers. When big galaxies collide and
00:13:22.399 --> 00:13:24.389
merge, they force the black holes at
00:13:24.399 --> 00:13:26.150
their respective centers into close
00:13:26.160 --> 00:13:27.269
proximity.
00:13:27.279 --> 00:13:29.590
>> Right? If two black holes become locked
00:13:29.600 --> 00:13:31.829
in a gravitational dance and then a
00:13:31.839 --> 00:13:33.910
third crashes in from another emerging
00:13:33.920 --> 00:13:36.389
galaxy, the resulting instability can
00:13:36.399 --> 00:13:38.949
hurl one of the trio away at sufficient
00:13:38.959 --> 00:13:42.310
speed to exit the host galaxy entirely.
00:13:42.320 --> 00:13:43.829
This can happen through two main
00:13:43.839 --> 00:13:44.870
mechanisms.
00:13:44.880 --> 00:13:47.829
>> The first is gravitational wave recoil.
00:13:47.839 --> 00:13:49.910
When black holes merge, they emitate
00:13:49.920 --> 00:13:51.750
gravitational waves that can give the
00:13:51.760 --> 00:13:54.069
resulting black hole a velocity boost of
00:13:54.079 --> 00:13:56.870
up to several thousand km/s,
00:13:56.880 --> 00:13:58.629
propelling it away from the galactic
00:13:58.639 --> 00:13:59.350
center.
00:13:59.360 --> 00:14:01.509
>> The second mechanism is the classical
00:14:01.519 --> 00:14:04.069
slingshot scenario. In this case, a
00:14:04.079 --> 00:14:06.550
longived binary black hole forms through
00:14:06.560 --> 00:14:09.350
a merger of two galaxies. When a third
00:14:09.360 --> 00:14:11.350
super massive black hole is introduced
00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:13.670
in a second merger, the threebody
00:14:13.680 --> 00:14:15.829
interaction can eject one of the black
00:14:15.839 --> 00:14:17.990
holes, usually the lightest one.
00:14:18.000 --> 00:14:20.069
>> What's particularly striking about this
00:14:20.079 --> 00:14:22.389
confirmed runaway black hole is the
00:14:22.399 --> 00:14:24.629
trail it leaves behind. As the black
00:14:24.639 --> 00:14:26.870
hole plows through intergalactic space,
00:14:26.880 --> 00:14:28.949
it compresses tenuous gas in front of
00:14:28.959 --> 00:14:31.430
it, which precipitates the birth of hot
00:14:31.440 --> 00:14:34.550
blue stars. This creates a 200,000
00:14:34.560 --> 00:14:37.269
lightyear long contrail of young stars.
00:14:37.279 --> 00:14:39.509
The black hole also generates a bow
00:14:39.519 --> 00:14:41.269
shock at the head of this week.
00:14:41.279 --> 00:14:42.949
Something the researchers predicted
00:14:42.959 --> 00:14:45.430
based on shock models. From the ages of
00:14:45.440 --> 00:14:47.269
the stars in the trail, they deduced
00:14:47.279 --> 00:14:49.590
that the black hole escaped about 40
00:14:49.600 --> 00:14:51.509
million years ago and is barreling
00:14:51.519 --> 00:14:54.629
through space at roughly 1,600 km per
00:14:54.639 --> 00:14:55.350
second.
00:14:55.360 --> 00:14:57.350
>> To put that in perspective, that's fast
00:14:57.360 --> 00:14:59.509
enough to travel from Earth to the moon
00:14:59.519 --> 00:15:02.470
in about 14 minutes. It's an incredible
00:15:02.480 --> 00:15:05.189
speed for something so massive. Recent
00:15:05.199 --> 00:15:07.750
papers have shown images of surprisingly
00:15:07.760 --> 00:15:09.590
straight streaks of stars within
00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:11.829
galaxies that seem to be convincing
00:15:11.839 --> 00:15:14.310
evidence for runaway black holes. One
00:15:14.320 --> 00:15:16.710
paper describes a very distant galaxy
00:15:16.720 --> 00:15:18.949
imaged by James Webb with a bright
00:15:18.959 --> 00:15:21.110
contrail suggesting a black hole with a
00:15:21.120 --> 00:15:23.590
mass 10 million times the mass of the
00:15:23.600 --> 00:15:24.150
sun.
00:15:24.160 --> 00:15:26.069
>> It's a reminder that the universe is
00:15:26.079 --> 00:15:28.230
even more dynamic and violent than we
00:15:28.240 --> 00:15:30.550
often imagine. These behemoths aren't
00:15:30.560 --> 00:15:32.389
just sitting quietly at the centers of
00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:34.629
galaxies. Some of them are literally
00:15:34.639 --> 00:15:36.629
tearing through space, creating new
00:15:36.639 --> 00:15:37.829
stars in their wake.
00:15:37.839 --> 00:15:39.829
>> And finally, let's talk about an
00:15:39.839 --> 00:15:42.230
upcoming event that has both exciting
00:15:42.240 --> 00:15:45.110
scientific potential and some concerning
00:15:45.120 --> 00:15:49.910
risks. On December 22nd, 2032, asteroid
00:15:49.920 --> 00:15:54.310
2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of actually
00:15:54.320 --> 00:15:55.910
striking the moon.
00:15:55.920 --> 00:15:58.710
>> A 4% chance might not sound like much,
00:15:58.720 --> 00:16:01.350
but it's definitely non-negligible. If
00:16:01.360 --> 00:16:03.269
this collision does happen, it will
00:16:03.279 --> 00:16:05.110
release enough energy to be the
00:16:05.120 --> 00:16:07.110
equivalent of smacking our nearest
00:16:07.120 --> 00:16:09.110
neighbor with a medium-sized thermal
00:16:09.120 --> 00:16:11.670
nuclear weapon. It would be six orders
00:16:11.680 --> 00:16:13.829
of magnitude more powerful than the last
00:16:13.839 --> 00:16:15.990
major impact on the moon, which happened
00:16:16.000 --> 00:16:17.430
back in 2013.
00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:20.230
>> A new paper from Yeon Hei of Chin Wua
00:16:20.240 --> 00:16:21.990
University looks at the potential
00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:23.749
scientific opportunities if this
00:16:23.759 --> 00:16:25.910
collision occurs. And while they can
00:16:25.920 --> 00:16:27.990
simulate models of how the impact will
00:16:28.000 --> 00:16:30.389
go, monitoring it as it happens will
00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:32.870
provide never before collected actual
00:16:32.880 --> 00:16:35.189
data that's infeasible to get any other
00:16:35.199 --> 00:16:35.749
way.
00:16:35.759 --> 00:16:37.749
>> The impact would vaporize rock and
00:16:37.759 --> 00:16:39.910
plasma and would be clearly visible from
00:16:39.920 --> 00:16:41.990
the Pacific region where it will be
00:16:42.000 --> 00:16:44.629
nighttime during the impact. Even days
00:16:44.639 --> 00:16:46.710
after the impact, the melt pool of the
00:16:46.720 --> 00:16:49.269
impacted material will still be cooling,
00:16:49.279 --> 00:16:51.110
allowing infrared observers like the
00:16:51.120 --> 00:16:53.269
James Web Space Telescope to capture
00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:55.910
plenty of data. The impact should form a
00:16:55.920 --> 00:16:59.590
crater roughly 1 kilometer wide and 150
00:16:59.600 --> 00:17:03.749
to 260 m deep with a 100 meter pool of
00:17:03.759 --> 00:17:06.470
molten rock at the center. Comparing it
00:17:06.480 --> 00:17:08.309
in size to other craters scattered
00:17:08.319 --> 00:17:10.470
around the moon will help us understand
00:17:10.480 --> 00:17:12.309
its bombardment history.
00:17:12.319 --> 00:17:14.470
>> The impact will also set off a global
00:17:14.480 --> 00:17:17.510
moon quake of magnitude 5.0. That would
00:17:17.520 --> 00:17:19.750
be the strongest moonquake yet detected
00:17:19.760 --> 00:17:22.470
by any seismometer on the moon. Watching
00:17:22.480 --> 00:17:24.150
the propagation of the moonquake will
00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:26.470
shine a light on the moon's interior and
00:17:26.480 --> 00:17:28.069
help researchers understand its
00:17:28.079 --> 00:17:28.870
composition.
00:17:28.880 --> 00:17:30.470
>> And here's where it gets really
00:17:30.480 --> 00:17:32.630
spectacular. A final piece of the
00:17:32.640 --> 00:17:34.549
scientific puzzle will be the debris
00:17:34.559 --> 00:17:38.230
field created by the blast. Up to 400 kg
00:17:38.240 --> 00:17:41.029
of lunar material is expected to survive
00:17:41.039 --> 00:17:43.669
re-entry to Earth, creating essentially
00:17:43.679 --> 00:17:46.390
a free largecale lunar sample return
00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:48.230
mission. At its peak, right around
00:17:48.240 --> 00:17:51.590
Christmas of 2032, simulations expect up
00:17:51.600 --> 00:17:53.990
to 20 million meteors per hour to hit
00:17:54.000 --> 00:17:55.990
our atmosphere, at least on the leading
00:17:56.000 --> 00:17:57.990
edge of the planet. Most of them would
00:17:58.000 --> 00:17:59.909
have naked eye visibility, including
00:17:59.919 --> 00:18:03.510
some 100 to 400 fireballs per hour. But
00:18:03.520 --> 00:18:06.150
there is a downside to all of this. That
00:18:06.160 --> 00:18:09.430
400 kg of meteors has to land somewhere.
00:18:09.440 --> 00:18:11.190
And it looks like the crosshairs fall
00:18:11.200 --> 00:18:13.830
squarely on South America, North Africa,
00:18:13.840 --> 00:18:16.150
and the Arabian Peninsula. A few
00:18:16.160 --> 00:18:18.710
kilograms of space rock falling on Dubai
00:18:18.720 --> 00:18:20.630
could certainly cause some damage.
00:18:20.640 --> 00:18:22.470
>> Perhaps more dangerous is the risk of
00:18:22.480 --> 00:18:24.710
satellite mega constellations that play
00:18:24.720 --> 00:18:26.710
such an important role in our modern-day
00:18:26.720 --> 00:18:29.590
navigation and internet systems. Such an
00:18:29.600 --> 00:18:31.909
event could trigger Kesler syndrome and
00:18:31.919 --> 00:18:33.990
bring the entire network down over the
00:18:34.000 --> 00:18:36.470
span of a few short years while also
00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:38.230
locking us out from being able to get
00:18:38.240 --> 00:18:40.549
anything else safely into orbit for much
00:18:40.559 --> 00:18:43.029
longer. Due to the risks, some space
00:18:43.039 --> 00:18:44.950
agencies are already considering a
00:18:44.960 --> 00:18:46.710
deflection mission that would bump
00:18:46.720 --> 00:18:50.630
asteroid 2024 YR4 out of the way of a
00:18:50.640 --> 00:18:52.630
potential lunar collision. But that
00:18:52.640 --> 00:18:54.630
hasn't been set in stone yet. Neither
00:18:54.640 --> 00:18:57.510
has the actual impact itself with only a
00:18:57.520 --> 00:18:59.909
4% chance of happening. If the odds
00:18:59.919 --> 00:19:02.230
increase over the coming years, we as a
00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:04.150
species will have to decide whether it's
00:19:04.160 --> 00:19:07.110
worth it to deflect it or not. If we do,
00:19:07.120 --> 00:19:08.789
we might miss out on a whole bunch of
00:19:08.799 --> 00:19:11.270
cool science, but we also might save our
00:19:11.280 --> 00:19:13.350
entire orbital infrastructure and the
00:19:13.360 --> 00:19:14.950
few lives directly to boot.
00:19:14.960 --> 00:19:16.870
>> And that wraps up today's episode of
00:19:16.880 --> 00:19:19.190
Astronomy Daily. From Mercury's
00:19:19.200 --> 00:19:21.590
surprising activity to a possible lunar
00:19:21.600 --> 00:19:24.390
impact in our future, space continues to
00:19:24.400 --> 00:19:26.230
surprise and amaze us.
00:19:26.240 --> 00:19:27.990
>> Thanks for joining us today. For more
00:19:28.000 --> 00:19:30.230
space news and to explore our archive of
00:19:30.240 --> 00:19:31.909
episodes, visit our website at
00:19:31.919 --> 00:19:34.150
astronomydaily.io.
00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:36.230
You can also find us on social media at
00:19:36.240 --> 00:19:39.029
Astro Daily Pod on X, Facebook,
00:19:39.039 --> 00:19:40.470
Instagram, and YouTube.
00:19:40.480 --> 00:19:42.230
>> If you enjoyed today's show, please
00:19:42.240 --> 00:19:43.909
subscribe on your favorite podcast
00:19:43.919 --> 00:19:45.909
platform and leave us a review. It
00:19:45.919 --> 00:19:47.830
really helps other space enthusiasts
00:19:47.840 --> 00:19:48.630
find us.
00:19:48.640 --> 00:19:50.710
>> Until next time, keep looking up.
00:19:50.720 --> 00:19:53.270
>> Clear skies, everyone. Astronomy [music]
00:19:53.280 --> 00:19:55.510
day. [singing]
00:19:55.520 --> 00:20:03.430
Stories been told.
00:20:03.440 --> 00:20:11.753
Stories to tell.
00:20:11.763 --> 00:20:13.783
[singing]




