Feb. 14, 2025

Megastructures, Exoplanet Myths & Satellite Showers: #495 - The Quipu Conundrum and More | Space...

Megastructures, Exoplanet Myths & Satellite Showers: #495 - The Quipu Conundrum and More | Space...
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Megastructures, Exoplanet Myths & Satellite Showers: #495 - The Quipu Conundrum and More | Space...

Space Nuts Episode 495: The Megastructure Quipu, Exoplanet Myths, and SpaceX Satellites

Join Andrew Dunkley and Professor Jonti Horner in this enlightening episode of Space Nuts, where they explore the cosmos' latest discoveries and debunk popular misconceptions. From the astonishing natural megastructure known as Quipu to the reality behind potentially habitable exoplanets, and the implications of SpaceX satellites re-entering Earth's atmosphere, this episode is packed with fascinating insights that will expand your understanding of our universe.

Episode Highlights:

- The Discovery of Quipu: Andrew and Jonti discuss the recently discovered megastructure, Quipu, which is a colossal natural formation in the universe. They delve into its size, significance, and the implications it has for our understanding of cosmic structures.

- Exoplanet Misconceptions: Jonti shares his frustrations regarding the overselling of exoplanet discoveries and the potential for life. They dissect the media's portrayal of newly found planets and emphasize the complexities involved in determining habitability.

- Asteroid 2024 YR4 Update: The duo provides an update on the asteroid's trajectory and the fluctuating odds of it impacting Earth. They explain how ongoing observations refine our understanding of its orbit and potential risks.

- SpaceX Satellites and Atmospheric Concerns : Andrew and Jonti examine the increasing number of SpaceX satellites re-entering the atmosphere and the environmental implications of this phenomenon. They discuss the balance between technological advancements and potential ecological impacts.

For more Space Nuts, including our continually updating newsfeed and to listen to all our episodes, visit our website. (https://www.spacenutspodcast.com/about)

Stay curious, keep looking up, and join us next time for more stellar insights and cosmic wonders. Until then, clear skies and happy stargazing.

00:00 - Introduction to the episode and topics

02:15 - Discussion on the discovery of Quipu and its implications

10:30 - Debunking myths around exoplanets and habitability

18:00 - Update on asteroid 2024 YR4 and its potential impact

26:45 - The environmental impact of SpaceX satellites re-entering

30:00 - Closing thoughts and listener engagement

✍️ Episode References

Quipu Discovery Article

https://www.astronomy.com/news

Exoplanet Research

https://www.nasa.gov/exoplanets

SpaceX Satellite Updates

https://www.spacex.com/launches/


Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/space-nuts--2631155/support (https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/space-nuts--2631155/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss) .

Episode link: https://play.headliner.app/episode/25588222?utm_source=youtube

00:00 - Introduction to the episode and topics

02:15 - Discussion on the discovery of Quipu and its implications

10:30 - Debunking myths around exoplanets and habitability

18:00 - Update on asteroid 2024 YR4 and its potential impact

26:45 - The environmental impact of SpaceX satellites re-entering

30:00 - Closing thoughts and listener engagement

WEBVTT
Kind: captions
Language: en

00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:01.790
hi there thanks for joining us this is


00:00:01.800 --> 00:00:03.709
Space Nuts Andrew Dunley here good to


00:00:03.719 --> 00:00:06.550
have your company and on this episode we


00:00:06.560 --> 00:00:10.509
have a lot to talk about uh the first


00:00:10.519 --> 00:00:13.430
thing will be a mega structure of Epic


00:00:13.440 --> 00:00:15.470
Proportions discovered in the universe


00:00:15.480 --> 00:00:18.349
now this is not a a something that was


00:00:18.359 --> 00:00:21.670
manufactured by some incredible race uh


00:00:21.680 --> 00:00:23.509
because we have talked about me mega


00:00:23.519 --> 00:00:24.950
structures in the past now this is


00:00:24.960 --> 00:00:27.269
natural and it's called


00:00:27.279 --> 00:00:29.390
kipo what's that mean we'll tell you


00:00:29.400 --> 00:00:32.910
soon um this is uh one of um the biggest


00:00:32.920 --> 00:00:34.990
bug bears that jonty has to deal with


00:00:35.000 --> 00:00:37.229
the overselling of the potential for


00:00:37.239 --> 00:00:39.790
life on exoplanets yes there is one in


00:00:39.800 --> 00:00:41.510
the news at the moment we'll do an


00:00:41.520 --> 00:00:43.910
update on 2024


00:00:43.920 --> 00:00:47.350
yr4 the odds of it hitting us have hared


00:00:47.360 --> 00:00:49.990
and SpaceX satellites raining down on


00:00:50.000 --> 00:00:52.750
our atmosphere uh what does that mean


00:00:52.760 --> 00:00:55.790
we'll tell you on this episode of Space


00:00:55.800 --> 00:01:00.430
Nuts 15 seconds guidance is internal 10


00:01:00.440 --> 00:01:04.229
nine ignition sequence start Space Nuts


00:01:04.239 --> 00:01:10.910
5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 3 Space Nuts as the


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report it feels good and he's back again


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surprisingly it's Johny Horner professor


00:01:15.320 --> 00:01:16.950
of a physics at the University of


00:01:16.960 --> 00:01:19.550
Southern Queensland jonty hello good day


00:01:19.560 --> 00:01:22.590
how are you going I am well how are you


00:01:22.600 --> 00:01:23.749
I'm getting there I've never got the


00:01:23.759 --> 00:01:25.830
hang of mornings I think I'm a bit like


00:01:25.840 --> 00:01:27.429
um the characters from The Hitchhikers


00:01:27.439 --> 00:01:29.149
Guide except for me it's mornings it's


00:01:29.159 --> 00:01:31.590
not Mondays it's mornings yes I I used


00:01:31.600 --> 00:01:34.350
to be like that and then I started in


00:01:34.360 --> 00:01:36.429
breakfast radio and did it for 30 years


00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:40.830
so I eventually got used to being up at


00:01:40.840 --> 00:01:43.030
sparrows the breakfast shift does not


00:01:43.040 --> 00:01:46.310
sound fun uh I enjoyed it but that was


00:01:46.320 --> 00:01:48.270
just me I don't know if anyone else did


00:01:48.280 --> 00:01:51.510
especially the audience boom


00:01:51.520 --> 00:01:54.709
boom all right uh let us get into it and


00:01:54.719 --> 00:01:57.069
we're going to start off with this um


00:01:57.079 --> 00:01:58.910
discovery of a of a mega structure which


00:01:58.920 --> 00:02:03.630
is uh been uh in the news over the last


00:02:03.640 --> 00:02:07.270
week or so and it's it's called kipo


00:02:07.280 --> 00:02:09.350
we'll explain why it's called that soon


00:02:09.360 --> 00:02:11.670
but this is a a mega structure uh of


00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:14.110
natural formation in the universe the


00:02:14.120 --> 00:02:18.589
enormity of this is mind splitting


00:02:18.599 --> 00:02:21.430
amazing yes yes it is it's one of those


00:02:21.440 --> 00:02:22.869
things that just makes your head hurt


00:02:22.879 --> 00:02:24.830
like a lot of things in cosmology now


00:02:24.840 --> 00:02:27.030
I'll happily hold my hands up right at


00:02:27.040 --> 00:02:28.830
the start and say my expertise is on the


00:02:28.840 --> 00:02:30.910
parts of the University what closer than


00:02:30.920 --> 00:02:33.110
this so I'm not a cosmologist and if


00:02:33.120 --> 00:02:34.710
there are cosmologists listening you


00:02:34.720 --> 00:02:36.030
know people who are cosmology


00:02:36.040 --> 00:02:38.070
enthusiasts I might get something wrong


00:02:38.080 --> 00:02:41.070
please don't be too critical um because


00:02:41.080 --> 00:02:43.350
you know the the size of the things that


00:02:43.360 --> 00:02:45.550
I don't know in cosmology is enormous um


00:02:45.560 --> 00:02:48.190
just like the subject itself but this is


00:02:48.200 --> 00:02:50.830
a really interesting one when we think


00:02:50.840 --> 00:02:53.190
about the universe you see all these


00:02:53.200 --> 00:02:55.350
wonderful simulations that come out of


00:02:55.360 --> 00:02:57.790
our models of how the universe works


00:02:57.800 --> 00:03:00.149
that people produce all the time and you


00:03:00.159 --> 00:03:02.470
know you can almost see videos on


00:03:02.480 --> 00:03:04.110
fabulous documentary Series where they


00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:05.750
start at the scale of an atom and keep


00:03:05.760 --> 00:03:07.550
zooming out and you eventually get to


00:03:07.560 --> 00:03:09.990
the person and keep zooming out and the


00:03:10.000 --> 00:03:13.949
scale of cosmology is roughly the same


00:03:13.959 --> 00:03:15.670
scale compared to a human being that a


00:03:15.680 --> 00:03:17.509
human being is compared to an atom so


00:03:17.519 --> 00:03:18.869
that's the kind of size scale we're


00:03:18.879 --> 00:03:21.509
talking about here which is the study of


00:03:21.519 --> 00:03:23.910
the ridiculously big but as you zoom out


00:03:23.920 --> 00:03:25.350
from that human being on the earth you


00:03:25.360 --> 00:03:27.030
get the solar system then you get the


00:03:27.040 --> 00:03:29.390
local stars then you get our galaxy and


00:03:29.400 --> 00:03:32.229
then as move out you get structures of


00:03:32.239 --> 00:03:34.270
galaxies together so you get small


00:03:34.280 --> 00:03:36.229
clusters of galaxies and those small


00:03:36.239 --> 00:03:37.789
clusters hang together in bigger


00:03:37.799 --> 00:03:40.350
clusters that gather together in super


00:03:40.360 --> 00:03:42.710
clusters and they for a long time were


00:03:42.720 --> 00:03:44.429
kind of the biggest structures we saw in


00:03:44.439 --> 00:03:46.309
the universe but then as you zoom out


00:03:46.319 --> 00:03:48.949
further you start seeing these


00:03:48.959 --> 00:03:51.830
structures like walls and filaments


00:03:51.840 --> 00:03:53.750
where those clusters and super clusters


00:03:53.760 --> 00:03:55.589
of galaxies are themselves forming


00:03:55.599 --> 00:03:58.190
structures with huge voids in between so


00:03:58.200 --> 00:04:00.149
on this kind of scale when you see those


00:04:00.159 --> 00:04:02.630
simulations it looks almost like a view


00:04:02.640 --> 00:04:05.869
of a sponge so you if you've had a a


00:04:05.879 --> 00:04:08.990
sponge in your bath the sponge is a lot


00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:12.270
of open air spaces surrounded by lots of


00:04:12.280 --> 00:04:13.589
solid material and all the solid


00:04:13.599 --> 00:04:15.030
material is in contact with all the


00:04:15.040 --> 00:04:17.469
solid material but all the air is in


00:04:17.479 --> 00:04:18.830
contact with all the air so you could


00:04:18.840 --> 00:04:20.189
put a bit of string and go all the way


00:04:20.199 --> 00:04:21.710
through the sponge through the air holes


00:04:21.720 --> 00:04:24.070
and come out the other side and that's


00:04:24.080 --> 00:04:26.150
kind of what this view of the universe


00:04:26.160 --> 00:04:28.590
looks like it these long filaments and


00:04:28.600 --> 00:04:31.469
walls all connected to one another with


00:04:31.479 --> 00:04:33.469
these enormous voids of empty space


00:04:33.479 --> 00:04:35.950
between them that's the context we're


00:04:35.960 --> 00:04:37.310
talking about here so the team of


00:04:37.320 --> 00:04:39.909
researchers who studied this have been


00:04:39.919 --> 00:04:42.790
carrying out observations using an x-ray


00:04:42.800 --> 00:04:44.590
survey looking at very high energy


00:04:44.600 --> 00:04:46.749
electromagnetic radiation that's


00:04:46.759 --> 00:04:48.749
produced from incredibly hot gas in the


00:04:48.759 --> 00:04:50.990
most massive clusters of galaxies


00:04:51.000 --> 00:04:53.749
enormous structures themselves and


00:04:53.759 --> 00:04:56.909
they've looked at a region about 250


00:04:56.919 --> 00:04:59.110
million Parx across in all directions


00:04:59.120 --> 00:05:00.150
maybe a bit


00:05:00.160 --> 00:05:02.990
more looking for the biggest structures


00:05:03.000 --> 00:05:05.150
they can find in that region and they've


00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:07.270
identified four of these what they're


00:05:07.280 --> 00:05:09.590
calling super structures and they super


00:05:09.600 --> 00:05:11.310
structures are Mega structures because


00:05:11.320 --> 00:05:13.189
they are bigger than normal structures


00:05:13.199 --> 00:05:14.790
they structures made of structures made


00:05:14.800 --> 00:05:16.670
of superclusters made of clusters made


00:05:16.680 --> 00:05:19.909
of local clusters made of galaxies on we


00:05:19.919 --> 00:05:23.670
go all the way down again now these four


00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:26.029
structures that they found between them


00:05:26.039 --> 00:05:29.150
contain 45% of all the Galaxy clusters


00:05:29.160 --> 00:05:31.670
they could see 30% of all the galaxies


00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:34.350
and 25% of all the matter but they only


00:05:34.360 --> 00:05:36.990
occupy about 133% of the volume so that


00:05:37.000 --> 00:05:39.309
gives you the idea of lots of empty


00:05:39.319 --> 00:05:42.390
space with these filaments around it the


00:05:42.400 --> 00:05:44.629
biggest of these this is someone Keo


00:05:44.639 --> 00:05:47.070
that's getting all the attention it's


00:05:47.080 --> 00:05:50.550
ridiculous they talk about it being 200


00:05:50.560 --> 00:05:53.870
quadrillion times the mass of the Sun so


00:05:53.880 --> 00:05:56.950
if you remember fistas in countries that


00:05:56.960 --> 00:05:58.550
do things differently we using the kind


00:05:58.560 --> 00:06:00.550
of British scale Mill million billion


00:06:00.560 --> 00:06:03.029
system here so a million is 10 to the 6


00:06:03.039 --> 00:06:05.950
one with 6 zeros after it a billion is a


00:06:05.960 --> 00:06:08.670
th million so that's 10 to the N9 a


00:06:08.680 --> 00:06:11.629
trillion is a, billion or a million


00:06:11.639 --> 00:06:15.110
million that's 10 the 12 a quadrillion


00:06:15.120 --> 00:06:17.990
is a, trillion or a million billion or a


00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:21.430
billion million so it's 10 to the 15 200


00:06:21.440 --> 00:06:24.550
of those means this is 2 * 10 to the 17


00:06:24.560 --> 00:06:28.150
or two with 17 zeros after it times the


00:06:28.160 --> 00:06:30.430
mass of the Sun now that's a number that


00:06:30.440 --> 00:06:32.029
is bound to make your head hurt so I


00:06:32.039 --> 00:06:34.670
converted that down by looking at how


00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:37.270
many milky wees that would be and that


00:06:37.280 --> 00:06:38.589
be something like


00:06:38.599 --> 00:06:41.350
130,000 times the mass of our


00:06:41.360 --> 00:06:45.029
galaxy so stupidly big numbers it is


00:06:45.039 --> 00:06:47.710
spread over a distance it's a big long


00:06:47.720 --> 00:06:51.670
feature about 400 MEAP parex long so one


00:06:51.680 --> 00:06:56.510
Parc is perversely the distance that an


00:06:56.520 --> 00:06:59.749
object would be away from the Earth if


00:06:59.759 --> 00:07:02.189
it's Parallax as the earth goes around


00:07:02.199 --> 00:07:04.790
the Sun was 1 out second it's a really


00:07:04.800 --> 00:07:07.710
obscure unit of measurement it makes


00:07:07.720 --> 00:07:09.029
sense when you're doing the maths of


00:07:09.039 --> 00:07:10.670
measuring distance but it's not


00:07:10.680 --> 00:07:12.629
particularly user friendly it's a bit


00:07:12.639 --> 00:07:15.189
like talking in feet light years is a


00:07:15.199 --> 00:07:16.990
bit like talking in meters same kind of


00:07:17.000 --> 00:07:18.830
thing most people find light years more


00:07:18.840 --> 00:07:21.230
straightforward to visualize where one


00:07:21.240 --> 00:07:22.869
lightyear is the time it takes light to


00:07:22.879 --> 00:07:26.189
travel in one year and there are 3.26


00:07:26.199 --> 00:07:29.990
light years in one Parc so 400 megga


00:07:30.000 --> 00:07:34.070
passet is 1.3 billion light years long


00:07:34.080 --> 00:07:36.309
so in other words light leaving one end


00:07:36.319 --> 00:07:39.309
of this structure would take 1.3 billion


00:07:39.319 --> 00:07:42.749
years or 1,300 million years to go from


00:07:42.759 --> 00:07:45.110
one end to the other so it's an enormous


00:07:45.120 --> 00:07:46.230
enormous


00:07:46.240 --> 00:07:48.390
structure now that's all well and good


00:07:48.400 --> 00:07:50.270
and it's fabulous cataloging the biggest


00:07:50.280 --> 00:07:51.909
and the most massive and the brightest


00:07:51.919 --> 00:07:53.390
and I know a lot of people I do this


00:07:53.400 --> 00:07:55.670
occasionally look up Wikipedia articles


00:07:55.680 --> 00:07:57.350
like what's a as massive star what's a


00:07:57.360 --> 00:07:59.790
as luminous star things like that yeah


00:07:59.800 --> 00:08:01.390
but it's also really valuable to know


00:08:01.400 --> 00:08:03.070
this kind of stuff because if you study


00:08:03.080 --> 00:08:05.270
these big structures that gives us


00:08:05.280 --> 00:08:07.070
information that we can compare to the


00:08:07.080 --> 00:08:09.710
models that are based on our current


00:08:09.720 --> 00:08:11.909
understanding of the universe to see if


00:08:11.919 --> 00:08:14.189
those models make sense and the good


00:08:14.199 --> 00:08:16.029
thing is that the current models of how


00:08:16.039 --> 00:08:18.670
the universe work predict structures


00:08:18.680 --> 00:08:20.790
like this so this is very much in line


00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:23.189
with what people expected to see and


00:08:23.199 --> 00:08:24.710
that's a really good part of how science


00:08:24.720 --> 00:08:27.510
works you know it's very much Cas of our


00:08:27.520 --> 00:08:28.990
models predicted this and now you've


00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:30.629
seen it that makes us happy because it


00:08:30.639 --> 00:08:33.070
means the models are working correctly


00:08:33.080 --> 00:08:35.269
it also is the kind of information


00:08:35.279 --> 00:08:37.709
that's really useful for people studying


00:08:37.719 --> 00:08:39.870
the big bang and more ancient Universe


00:08:39.880 --> 00:08:41.269
because structures like this are


00:08:41.279 --> 00:08:43.550
sufficiently massive that they will


00:08:43.560 --> 00:08:45.870
influence our view of what is beyond you


00:08:45.880 --> 00:08:47.790
get gravitational lensing from the big


00:08:47.800 --> 00:08:50.150
objects you also even get and I don't


00:08:50.160 --> 00:08:52.509
fully understand how this works but you


00:08:52.519 --> 00:08:54.990
also get the pollution of the cosmic


00:08:55.000 --> 00:08:57.670
microwave background which is the last


00:08:57.680 --> 00:09:00.550
hit of the Big Bang it's the it's our


00:09:00.560 --> 00:09:03.550
image of the last surface 300,000 years


00:09:03.560 --> 00:09:04.949
after the big bang where the universe


00:09:04.959 --> 00:09:05.829
became


00:09:05.839 --> 00:09:08.509
transparent and we found little bits of


00:09:08.519 --> 00:09:10.069
structure in that which are important


00:09:10.079 --> 00:09:12.509
for us understanding how the modern


00:09:12.519 --> 00:09:14.670
structure of the universe formed but


00:09:14.680 --> 00:09:17.069
that structure is polluted by the


00:09:17.079 --> 00:09:18.310
influence of these


00:09:18.320 --> 00:09:20.829
foreground objects by something called


00:09:20.839 --> 00:09:23.389
the integrated sax wolf effect I've no


00:09:23.399 --> 00:09:25.069
idea how that works to be brutally


00:09:25.079 --> 00:09:28.550
honest but if you've got something like


00:09:28.560 --> 00:09:31.110
that that pollutes view of what's beyond


00:09:31.120 --> 00:09:33.110
and we want to understand what's beyond


00:09:33.120 --> 00:09:35.069
the better we can see the foreground the


00:09:35.079 --> 00:09:36.350
better we can account for it when we're


00:09:36.360 --> 00:09:38.750
subing the background so getting studies


00:09:38.760 --> 00:09:41.269
of this a it's fascinating it's a really


00:09:41.279 --> 00:09:43.829
good test for our models but it also


00:09:43.839 --> 00:09:46.150
allows us in the future to get a better


00:09:46.160 --> 00:09:48.269
handle on how things like the cosmic


00:09:48.279 --> 00:09:50.509
microwave background really look when


00:09:50.519 --> 00:09:53.110
you filter out the foreground mess and I


00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:54.710
guess the equivalent here would be like


00:09:54.720 --> 00:09:56.670
having a light pollution filter for


00:09:56.680 --> 00:09:58.750
people who are astronomy photography


00:09:58.760 --> 00:10:01.110
enesi gas you've got a murky light


00:10:01.120 --> 00:10:02.590
polluted sky but if you put a light


00:10:02.600 --> 00:10:03.990
pollution filter on the front of your


00:10:04.000 --> 00:10:06.310
lens you can cancel out that foreground


00:10:06.320 --> 00:10:07.829
mess and get a much better view of


00:10:07.839 --> 00:10:10.630
what's beyond this will enable us to do


00:10:10.640 --> 00:10:12.230
that same kind of filtering when we're


00:10:12.240 --> 00:10:14.230
looking at the microwave background so I


00:10:14.240 --> 00:10:16.750
think it's a fabulous Story full of


00:10:16.760 --> 00:10:20.030
numbers what make your head hurt quite


00:10:20.040 --> 00:10:22.710
they're massive numbers they just uh


00:10:22.720 --> 00:10:24.350
just incredible


00:10:24.360 --> 00:10:26.710
now why is it called


00:10:26.720 --> 00:10:29.509
Keo this is partially because of the


00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:31.430
structure so it looks like a long thick


00:10:31.440 --> 00:10:32.949
filament with thinner filaments


00:10:32.959 --> 00:10:35.389
branching off the sides of it and the


00:10:35.399 --> 00:10:37.829
authors of this paper notice that this


00:10:37.839 --> 00:10:40.190
looks very similar to the traditional


00:10:40.200 --> 00:10:41.990
counting instrument of the Incan people


00:10:42.000 --> 00:10:44.629
in Peru um which was essentially they


00:10:44.639 --> 00:10:47.069
did their counting using knotted ropes


00:10:47.079 --> 00:10:48.790
and that knotted rope counting device


00:10:48.800 --> 00:10:51.389
was a Keo so it's quite a nice nod to


00:10:51.399 --> 00:10:53.829
the traditional culture of the that area


00:10:53.839 --> 00:10:56.430
in Peru again I'm not an anthropologist


00:10:56.440 --> 00:10:58.069
or an archaeologist I don't really know


00:10:58.079 --> 00:11:00.069
much more about it than that but I think


00:11:00.079 --> 00:11:02.710
it is a really nice nod to a different


00:11:02.720 --> 00:11:04.949
culture and as we've talked about in


00:11:04.959 --> 00:11:06.870
previous weeks this idea of embracing


00:11:06.880 --> 00:11:08.230
all the cultures of the Earth in our


00:11:08.240 --> 00:11:09.990
studies going forward it's really


00:11:10.000 --> 00:11:11.710
gaining traction is a really nice way of


00:11:11.720 --> 00:11:14.230
doing things I think absolutely yes I'd


00:11:14.240 --> 00:11:17.910
agree and the the Incans have a um


00:11:17.920 --> 00:11:21.069
strong history with astronomy so uh that


00:11:21.079 --> 00:11:24.670
ties in well too so yeah fascinating uh


00:11:24.680 --> 00:11:26.629
if you would like to chase up that story


00:11:26.639 --> 00:11:28.350
it was published in astronomy and


00:11:28.360 --> 00:11:30.710
astrophysics the journal you can also


00:11:30.720 --> 00:11:34.949
read about it at the archive.org website


00:11:34.959 --> 00:11:38.190
that's arxiv I learned that last week


00:11:38.200 --> 00:11:39.829
archive.org


00:11:39.839 --> 00:11:43.190
uh yes there was some um a lot of


00:11:43.200 --> 00:11:45.949
involvement from the max plank Institute


00:11:45.959 --> 00:11:49.629
in um in running this the author was H


00:11:49.639 --> 00:11:51.870
boringer so uh you might want to look


00:11:51.880 --> 00:11:55.590
that


00:11:55.600 --> 00:11:59.430
up Space Nuts uh now uh let's move on on


00:11:59.440 --> 00:12:02.550
to our next story this is a pet peeve


00:12:02.560 --> 00:12:05.030
story um which Johny wanted to talk


00:12:05.040 --> 00:12:07.949
about and look I'm not surprised that it


00:12:07.959 --> 00:12:11.629
uh it bothers some people uh because I I


00:12:11.639 --> 00:12:14.389
have often referred to the popular press


00:12:14.399 --> 00:12:16.590
when doing this podcast and how they


00:12:16.600 --> 00:12:19.110
latch onto something that isn't quite


00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:21.829
the story but it makes a great headline


00:12:21.839 --> 00:12:24.110
and that's what this is overselling the


00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:26.389
potential for life on


00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:28.750
exoplanets yeah it's and one in


00:12:28.760 --> 00:12:30.230
particular in the news at the moment


00:12:30.240 --> 00:12:31.629
well it's something that's niggled at me


00:12:31.639 --> 00:12:33.350
for a while it should be said that the


00:12:33.360 --> 00:12:35.069
criticism here is not of the research


00:12:35.079 --> 00:12:36.470
done by these authors have done a


00:12:36.480 --> 00:12:37.949
fabulous bit of research and if you look


00:12:37.959 --> 00:12:40.069
at the paper they've got the balance


00:12:40.079 --> 00:12:43.269
right that's fine but there is a very


00:12:43.279 --> 00:12:44.990
common Trend particularly among press


00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:48.590
officers at universities and also around


00:12:48.600 --> 00:12:50.550
a lot of media sites that rely on clicks


00:12:50.560 --> 00:12:54.750
for their income to talk about the most


00:12:54.760 --> 00:12:56.590
habitable planet ever discovered we


00:12:56.600 --> 00:12:58.670
found the most earthlike planet ever and


00:12:58.680 --> 00:13:00.590
the report on this planet are not quite


00:13:00.600 --> 00:13:01.910
that bad but they have been talking


00:13:01.920 --> 00:13:03.990
about potentially habitable planet


00:13:04.000 --> 00:13:06.110
discovered around nearby star because


00:13:06.120 --> 00:13:08.629
that gets a clicks and before we dig


00:13:08.639 --> 00:13:10.150
into this story the reason that this


00:13:10.160 --> 00:13:12.710
niggles at me is that people are getting


00:13:12.720 --> 00:13:15.790
ex exoe fatigue and also lifei SAR


00:13:15.800 --> 00:13:19.430
fatigue so by reporting things when we


00:13:19.440 --> 00:13:20.870
haven't actually found what the reports


00:13:20.880 --> 00:13:22.790
are saying it creates this opinion that


00:13:22.800 --> 00:13:24.829
the science is already done we've


00:13:24.839 --> 00:13:26.629
already discovered the a stuff so when


00:13:26.639 --> 00:13:28.470
we finally find a planet that really


00:13:28.480 --> 00:13:30.430
does have life on it or when we finally


00:13:30.440 --> 00:13:32.990
find a planet that genuinely is Earth


00:13:33.000 --> 00:13:35.430
2.0 that'll be exciting I'll be thrilled


00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:36.550
we've finally got something to talk


00:13:36.560 --> 00:13:38.030
about and everybody will be kind of the


00:13:38.040 --> 00:13:39.590
boy who cried wolf well you've told us


00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:41.750
you've done this a million times already


00:13:41.760 --> 00:13:43.189
yeah and it's easy why are you


00:13:43.199 --> 00:13:46.509
interested you know it's


00:13:46.519 --> 00:13:49.230
also the fact that we basically don't


00:13:49.240 --> 00:13:50.990
know enough to make these statements yet


00:13:51.000 --> 00:13:53.230
so when you see a headline like we found


00:13:53.240 --> 00:13:55.949
the most earthlike planet ever what it's


00:13:55.959 --> 00:13:57.389
actually telling you is we found a


00:13:57.399 --> 00:13:59.189
planet that's about the same diameter as


00:13:59.199 --> 00:14:02.389
the Earth and that's it so it's like me


00:14:02.399 --> 00:14:04.470
being an alien and visiting the Earth


00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:06.110
and scanning the oceans and saying I


00:14:06.120 --> 00:14:07.870
found the most humanlike creature ever


00:14:07.880 --> 00:14:09.189
it's about the same length and it's


00:14:09.199 --> 00:14:10.590
about the same weight and it's about the


00:14:10.600 --> 00:14:13.509
same size it's called a dolphin it's


00:14:13.519 --> 00:14:15.389
nothing like a human whatsoever but it's


00:14:15.399 --> 00:14:17.389
about the same size and about the same


00:14:17.399 --> 00:14:20.030
mass so it's the most humanlike animal


00:14:20.040 --> 00:14:22.629
ever so I get a bit grumpy and there's a


00:14:22.639 --> 00:14:24.310
lot that goes inh habitability that I


00:14:24.320 --> 00:14:26.829
can talk about a little bit later on


00:14:26.839 --> 00:14:28.350
which is why I think this is a much more


00:14:28.360 --> 00:14:30.030
complex problem and that for me that


00:14:30.040 --> 00:14:31.629
makes it much more interesting a lot


00:14:31.639 --> 00:14:33.870
more research to do but it does mean


00:14:33.880 --> 00:14:35.230
that when you get a claim saying


00:14:35.240 --> 00:14:37.110
potentially habitable planet or the most


00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:39.590
habitable planet we've ever found yet


00:14:39.600 --> 00:14:41.110
people even publishing articles about


00:14:41.120 --> 00:14:42.670
super habitable planets that are more


00:14:42.680 --> 00:14:44.829
suitable for life than Earth I don't


00:14:44.839 --> 00:14:47.790
think you can say any of that aha in


00:14:47.800 --> 00:14:49.150
this particular case it is an


00:14:49.160 --> 00:14:51.389
interesting story there is a star called


00:14:51.399 --> 00:14:54.150
82 udani which also goes by the name


00:14:54.160 --> 00:14:58.030
hd20 794 you know astronomers love our


00:14:58.040 --> 00:15:00.910
acronyms in our bar curs this is a star


00:15:00.920 --> 00:15:02.310
that you can see with an AK in the


00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:03.949
constellation of aridus but it's not


00:15:03.959 --> 00:15:05.509
particularly bright it's about magnitude


00:15:05.519 --> 00:15:08.110
4 4 and a half and for a while we've


00:15:08.120 --> 00:15:10.150
known it had two planets around it but


00:15:10.160 --> 00:15:12.870
it's been monitored by the high accuracy


00:15:12.880 --> 00:15:14.430
radial velocity Planet Searcher


00:15:14.440 --> 00:15:17.550
spectrograph Harps in chil and harps is


00:15:17.560 --> 00:15:19.030
an incredible


00:15:19.040 --> 00:15:21.590
instrument it allows you to measure the


00:15:21.600 --> 00:15:24.470
velocity of a star so you take the light


00:15:24.480 --> 00:15:26.189
from a star you break it up into its


00:15:26.199 --> 00:15:28.550
component colors and La across that


00:15:28.560 --> 00:15:31.590
Spectrum is a series of dark lines and


00:15:31.600 --> 00:15:32.790
those dark lines which we call the


00:15:32.800 --> 00:15:35.150
fronhofer absorption lines are the


00:15:35.160 --> 00:15:37.150
fingerprint of all the different atoms


00:15:37.160 --> 00:15:38.829
and molecules in the Stars outer


00:15:38.839 --> 00:15:41.110
atmosphere every Atomic species every


00:15:41.120 --> 00:15:43.590
molecular species absorbs like a very


00:15:43.600 --> 00:15:45.910
specific unique set of wave lengths and


00:15:45.920 --> 00:15:47.870
it imprints this dark set of lines


00:15:47.880 --> 00:15:50.110
across the star Spectrum now if the


00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:52.189
stars moving towards us its light will


00:15:52.199 --> 00:15:54.389
be blue shifted so all of those lines


00:15:54.399 --> 00:15:55.749
will move a little bit to the blue


00:15:55.759 --> 00:15:57.509
because of the dopper effect if it's


00:15:57.519 --> 00:15:59.069
moving away from us the light will be


00:15:59.079 --> 00:16:00.670
red shifted so it'll move a bit to the


00:16:00.680 --> 00:16:03.069
red again with a Doppler effect and I've


00:16:03.079 --> 00:16:04.790
talked about this before this is the


00:16:04.800 --> 00:16:06.430
equivalent of having the tyum coming


00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:08.870
towards you and hearing it high pitched


00:16:08.880 --> 00:16:11.949
and fast with n no and then it moving


00:16:11.959 --> 00:16:13.350
away and you're hearing it low pitched


00:16:13.360 --> 00:16:16.670
and slow with n noo to do with the waves


00:16:16.680 --> 00:16:19.069
getting stretched or compressed


00:16:19.079 --> 00:16:21.389
essentially now what that means is if we


00:16:21.399 --> 00:16:22.949
measure the positiony of these lines


00:16:22.959 --> 00:16:24.309
accurately enough we can measure the


00:16:24.319 --> 00:16:26.030
change in the speed of the Star as it


00:16:26.040 --> 00:16:29.030
moves around by seeing those lines move


00:16:29.040 --> 00:16:30.870
so we can look at stars and see them


00:16:30.880 --> 00:16:32.590
wobbling and INF further presence of


00:16:32.600 --> 00:16:34.910
planets that we can't see by how those


00:16:34.920 --> 00:16:37.509
planets pull those Stars around but


00:16:37.519 --> 00:16:38.790
there are limits to this there's a lot


00:16:38.800 --> 00:16:41.350
of challenges involved so facility like


00:16:41.360 --> 00:16:42.670
the one we've got at the University of


00:16:42.680 --> 00:16:44.629
Southern Queensland which is actually


00:16:44.639 --> 00:16:46.470
the southern hemisphere's only dedicated


00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:49.870
EXO Planet search facility we can get an


00:16:49.880 --> 00:16:51.509
accuracy where we can measure the wobble


00:16:51.519 --> 00:16:54.629
of stars down to about 2 or 3 m a second


00:16:54.639 --> 00:16:57.230
so we could see a star changing in speed


00:16:57.240 --> 00:16:59.269
by about as much as someone going a very


00:16:59.279 --> 00:17:00.189
gentle


00:17:00.199 --> 00:17:03.150
job what that means is we could not find


00:17:03.160 --> 00:17:04.829
these particular planets they're just


00:17:04.839 --> 00:17:07.429
much too hard but the harp spectrograph


00:17:07.439 --> 00:17:10.350
is on a much bigger telescope in a much


00:17:10.360 --> 00:17:12.470
better location and it's an incredibly


00:17:12.480 --> 00:17:15.150
accurate piece of Kit so it lets you get


00:17:15.160 --> 00:17:18.230
down to submeter per second measurements


00:17:18.240 --> 00:17:20.150
which is breathtaking put that in


00:17:20.160 --> 00:17:22.189
perspective we're looking at stars here


00:17:22.199 --> 00:17:24.949
whose distances are quadrillions of


00:17:24.959 --> 00:17:26.669
kilometers away again using the units


00:17:26.679 --> 00:17:28.990
from before these are stars where the


00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:32.070
light has taken decades to reach us and


00:17:32.080 --> 00:17:34.350
we are able to measure their velocity so


00:17:34.360 --> 00:17:36.230
accurately that we can see changes in


00:17:36.240 --> 00:17:40.110
that velocity of 50 cm a second wow


00:17:40.120 --> 00:17:41.870
that's just astonishing


00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:43.710
precision and that's what the team have


00:17:43.720 --> 00:17:47.230
done so they've observed this uh HD


00:17:47.240 --> 00:17:50.110
20794 for a number of years with haps


00:17:50.120 --> 00:17:52.390
getting more and more Data Tracking how


00:17:52.400 --> 00:17:54.350
the speed changes and in the past they'd


00:17:54.360 --> 00:17:56.710
found two planets in hints of a third


00:17:56.720 --> 00:17:59.149
and they've now confirmed that third one


00:17:59.159 --> 00:18:03.149
that third planet HD 20794 D is making


00:18:03.159 --> 00:18:05.870
the sty wobble with its speed changing


00:18:05.880 --> 00:18:09.310
by just 50 cm a second plus or minus


00:18:09.320 --> 00:18:12.029
over a period of about 700 days so


00:18:12.039 --> 00:18:14.830
you're watching for 700 days you get rid


00:18:14.840 --> 00:18:16.590
of all the other noise the star wobbling


00:18:16.600 --> 00:18:19.710
around itself just ulating like a shook


00:18:19.720 --> 00:18:21.750
Bell you get rid of the orbits of the


00:18:21.760 --> 00:18:23.230
two inner planets which are causing it


00:18:23.240 --> 00:18:24.750
to wobble by a similar amount with a


00:18:24.760 --> 00:18:26.990
different period on your left with a


00:18:27.000 --> 00:18:29.710
tiny wobble of plus orus 50 CM a second


00:18:29.720 --> 00:18:32.870
that takes 700 be to complete once and


00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:34.470
that's what they found so this is our


00:18:34.480 --> 00:18:37.190
planet it's a planet about 6 times the


00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:39.990
mass of the Earth at least might be more


00:18:40.000 --> 00:18:41.710
than that so we don't know how Edge on


00:18:41.720 --> 00:18:43.270
or Tilted the orbit is because we're not


00:18:43.280 --> 00:18:47.029
seeing it Transit if it's tilted by 30°


00:18:47.039 --> 00:18:48.669
the mass of this planet will be higher


00:18:48.679 --> 00:18:50.990
if it's tilted by 60° instead of being


00:18:51.000 --> 00:18:52.750
six Earth masses it'll be 12 Earth


00:18:52.760 --> 00:18:55.190
masses so this is the minimum


00:18:55.200 --> 00:18:58.270
Mass so it's what we call a super Earth


00:18:58.280 --> 00:19:01.350
or a inun it's much more massive than


00:19:01.360 --> 00:19:03.549
our planet and certainly larger than our


00:19:03.559 --> 00:19:07.110
planet it's moving on an orbit that if


00:19:07.120 --> 00:19:10.630
you calculated its semi- major axis the


00:19:10.640 --> 00:19:12.630
length of the ellipse half the length of


00:19:12.640 --> 00:19:14.789
the ellipse which sets a period that


00:19:14.799 --> 00:19:17.750
will put it in the habitable zone that's


00:19:17.760 --> 00:19:19.149
what the paper says now the habitable


00:19:19.159 --> 00:19:21.630
zone I'll get into in a second but this


00:19:21.640 --> 00:19:24.190
planet moves on a very elongated orbit


00:19:24.200 --> 00:19:26.149
so its distance from its Stars changing


00:19:26.159 --> 00:19:28.029
by a factor of two from its closest to


00:19:28.039 --> 00:19:30.590
the star to the furthest away now if you


00:19:30.600 --> 00:19:32.310
scale that up to the solar system and


00:19:32.320 --> 00:19:33.510
put it in the same place


00:19:33.520 --> 00:19:35.630
temperature-wise as it is in its system


00:19:35.640 --> 00:19:37.909
now if you put it in the solar system so


00:19:37.919 --> 00:19:39.950
that its orbit had that same temperature


00:19:39.960 --> 00:19:41.950
range that would mean when it's closest


00:19:41.960 --> 00:19:44.230
to its star it's as close as Venus when


00:19:44.240 --> 00:19:45.870
it's furthest from its star it's further


00:19:45.880 --> 00:19:49.190
out than mes you're going to have


00:19:49.200 --> 00:19:51.590
extreme extreme temperature variability


00:19:51.600 --> 00:19:55.149
on this planet now the habitable zone is


00:19:55.159 --> 00:19:56.990
always thrown out for these planets it's


00:19:57.000 --> 00:19:58.750
that goldilox IDE here if you have a


00:19:58.760 --> 00:20:00.470
Planet that's at the right distance from


00:20:00.480 --> 00:20:02.789
the Star the temperature will be not too


00:20:02.799 --> 00:20:04.390
hot and not too cold and it'll be just


00:20:04.400 --> 00:20:06.149
right for liquid water on the


00:20:06.159 --> 00:20:09.350
surface the Supple implication buried in


00:20:09.360 --> 00:20:12.029
this is not actually what I just said


00:20:12.039 --> 00:20:14.830
but it's rather if you took the Earth as


00:20:14.840 --> 00:20:17.750
the Earth is today and dropped it where


00:20:17.760 --> 00:20:19.590
this planet is would the Earth still


00:20:19.600 --> 00:20:22.270
have liquid water on its surface now


00:20:22.280 --> 00:20:24.270
that's a subtle difference but to


00:20:24.280 --> 00:20:25.470
illustrate it if you think about the


00:20:25.480 --> 00:20:28.230
solar system the boundaries of the


00:20:28.240 --> 00:20:30.070
habitable are usually set by looking at


00:20:30.080 --> 00:20:32.270
Venus and Mars that's what's motivated


00:20:32.280 --> 00:20:34.350
this the calculations are more robust


00:20:34.360 --> 00:20:36.710
now but that's about where it washes out


00:20:36.720 --> 00:20:38.950
Venus closer to the Sun than o is super


00:20:38.960 --> 00:20:41.669
hot 450° Centigrade on the surface and


00:20:41.679 --> 00:20:44.430
clearly not habitable Mars is super cold


00:20:44.440 --> 00:20:46.310
it's too cold for life it's outside the


00:20:46.320 --> 00:20:47.669
habitable zone the Earth's in the middle


00:20:47.679 --> 00:20:50.390
and it's just right but to illustrate


00:20:50.400 --> 00:20:52.350
why it's not so simple imagine a thought


00:20:52.360 --> 00:20:54.270
experiment where you swap Venus and Mars


00:20:54.280 --> 00:20:56.750
around if you put Mars where Venus is


00:20:56.760 --> 00:20:59.350
it's got a thinner atmosphere than we do


00:20:59.360 --> 00:21:01.149
so it's got less of a greenhouse effect


00:21:01.159 --> 00:21:03.669
so it would probably remain Clement


00:21:03.679 --> 00:21:06.029
where Venus would overheat similarly if


00:21:06.039 --> 00:21:07.990
you put Venus where Mars is Venus has


00:21:08.000 --> 00:21:10.029
this incredibly thick atmosphere with an


00:21:10.039 --> 00:21:12.390
incredibly strong Greenhouse it will


00:21:12.400 --> 00:21:14.310
probably still be habitable it would


00:21:14.320 --> 00:21:16.669
still be warm enough where Mars wouldn't


00:21:16.679 --> 00:21:18.990
so this habitable zone is a much wooler


00:21:19.000 --> 00:21:22.630
concept than I think most people realize


00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:25.230
and it's just not really a guideline


00:21:25.240 --> 00:21:27.269
it's just an indication that this could


00:21:27.279 --> 00:21:28.870
be somewhere worth looking at it's not


00:21:28.880 --> 00:21:30.110
more than that but it tends to get


00:21:30.120 --> 00:21:32.990
played up as being the Holy Grail a


00:21:33.000 --> 00:21:35.269
planet is in the habitable zone it must


00:21:35.279 --> 00:21:36.750
therefore have the potential to be


00:21:36.760 --> 00:21:38.630
habitable whereas in fact what you're


00:21:38.640 --> 00:21:40.470
saying is if you put the Earth on the


00:21:40.480 --> 00:21:42.310
orbit that this planet is on it might


00:21:42.320 --> 00:21:44.590
still look like the earth except with


00:21:44.600 --> 00:21:45.750
the planet we're talking about at the


00:21:45.760 --> 00:21:47.830
minute if you put the Earth on that


00:21:47.840 --> 00:21:50.470
orbit at per helium when it was closest


00:21:50.480 --> 00:21:53.029
to the Sun it would receive a flots from


00:21:53.039 --> 00:21:54.750
the Sun as high as Venus does so the


00:21:54.760 --> 00:21:57.190
oceans would start to boil fortunately


00:21:57.200 --> 00:21:59.190
it doesn't spend long at peral


00:21:59.200 --> 00:22:00.710
we move quickest when we're closest to


00:22:00.720 --> 00:22:02.669
the object we swing out through the


00:22:02.679 --> 00:22:05.029
habitable zone probably everything's


00:22:05.039 --> 00:22:06.710
fine but you've got Bonkers weather


00:22:06.720 --> 00:22:07.669
because you're dealing with all that


00:22:07.679 --> 00:22:09.789
heat you've just been given then you get


00:22:09.799 --> 00:22:11.870
to your furthest point from the Star and


00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:13.950
that's when you move the slowest so this


00:22:13.960 --> 00:22:15.990
planet spends probably more than 50% of


00:22:16.000 --> 00:22:18.590
its time further from its star than the


00:22:18.600 --> 00:22:20.269
outer edge of that habitable zone by


00:22:20.279 --> 00:22:22.950
calculation so those oceans will freeze


00:22:22.960 --> 00:22:24.909
and you get this deep game of thron


00:22:24.919 --> 00:22:26.470
style winter you'd have everybody going


00:22:26.480 --> 00:22:28.789
oh look winter is coming everybody


00:22:28.799 --> 00:22:30.830
doomed and then it would swing back into


00:22:30.840 --> 00:22:32.669
the star and have a brief furnace like


00:22:32.679 --> 00:22:35.310
summer and then a long cold winter again


00:22:35.320 --> 00:22:37.470
it doesn't sound particularly Clement


00:22:37.480 --> 00:22:38.750
you add to that though the fact that


00:22:38.760 --> 00:22:40.590
this planet is six times the mass of the


00:22:40.600 --> 00:22:42.990
Earth means it's going to have a very


00:22:43.000 --> 00:22:44.510
substantial atmosphere and I should say


00:22:44.520 --> 00:22:46.830
at least six times the MTH of the earth


00:22:46.840 --> 00:22:48.590
a much thicker atmosphere means a much


00:22:48.600 --> 00:22:51.110
stronger greenhouse effect which means


00:22:51.120 --> 00:22:53.549
the results of that extreme insulation


00:22:53.559 --> 00:22:56.070
the extreme radiation at pericenter when


00:22:56.080 --> 00:22:58.510
it's closest to the star is even more


00:22:58.520 --> 00:23:00.710
pronounced so I don't think it's at all


00:23:00.720 --> 00:23:02.350
fair to say that this planet could be


00:23:02.360 --> 00:23:04.470
potentially habitable and in fact the


00:23:04.480 --> 00:23:06.269
authors of the paper themselves don't


00:23:06.279 --> 00:23:08.669
really say that what they do say is that


00:23:08.679 --> 00:23:10.909
this planet crosses the habitable zone


00:23:10.919 --> 00:23:12.269
and because it's a bit bigger and


00:23:12.279 --> 00:23:14.149
because it has this big variation it


00:23:14.159 --> 00:23:16.269
assistance from the Star and because


00:23:16.279 --> 00:23:18.430
it's around a nearby star could be a


00:23:18.440 --> 00:23:20.870
really good test case for us to practice


00:23:20.880 --> 00:23:22.870
our observation techniques to learn more


00:23:22.880 --> 00:23:25.350
about atmospheres of planets this size


00:23:25.360 --> 00:23:27.070
before we really look at ones that could


00:23:27.080 --> 00:23:29.269
be habitable and Earth like


00:23:29.279 --> 00:23:31.789
but this planet certainly isn't it and


00:23:31.799 --> 00:23:33.310
even then there's a whole heap of other


00:23:33.320 --> 00:23:34.909
things that will impact habitability


00:23:34.919 --> 00:23:36.669
which we may or may not have time to go


00:23:36.679 --> 00:23:39.110
into today but the habitable zone really


00:23:39.120 --> 00:23:42.149
is just the first of an incredibly long


00:23:42.159 --> 00:23:44.110
list of variables that you can slide


00:23:44.120 --> 00:23:45.990
around that could influence their


00:23:46.000 --> 00:23:48.070
habitability so all it's saying is how


00:23:48.080 --> 00:23:49.430
hot would the Earth be if you put it


00:23:49.440 --> 00:23:52.070
there essentially yeah yeah and at six


00:23:52.080 --> 00:23:54.470
times the size of the Earth at least


00:23:54.480 --> 00:23:56.350
gravity has to be a factor as well


00:23:56.360 --> 00:23:59.269
doesn't it it does I mean if you


00:23:59.279 --> 00:24:01.110
estimated that this thing is twice the


00:24:01.120 --> 00:24:02.830
Earth diameter and we don't know that


00:24:02.840 --> 00:24:05.269
because this thing doesn't Transit its


00:24:05.279 --> 00:24:07.269
star or we've never seen it transited


00:24:07.279 --> 00:24:09.190
that so it orbit is almost certainly not


00:24:09.200 --> 00:24:11.029
Edge on which means its mass is probably


00:24:11.039 --> 00:24:13.390
a bit higher than we say that minimum is


00:24:13.400 --> 00:24:15.269
but it means we have no way of measuring


00:24:15.279 --> 00:24:18.190
the size now at six Earth masses are a


00:24:18.200 --> 00:24:19.630
bit heavier it's near this boundary


00:24:19.640 --> 00:24:22.590
between what we call superar or and inet


00:24:22.600 --> 00:24:24.669
super Earth is a rocky object with a big


00:24:24.679 --> 00:24:27.230
thick atmosphere A Min Neptune is a big


00:24:27.240 --> 00:24:29.149
thick atmosphere with a rocky car so you


00:24:29.159 --> 00:24:30.830
can see how that transitions between


00:24:30.840 --> 00:24:32.909
them but if you estimate for a minute


00:24:32.919 --> 00:24:34.549
that it is a super Earth with a bit of a


00:24:34.559 --> 00:24:36.510
thick atmosphere you could say well


00:24:36.520 --> 00:24:38.110
maybe it's twice the diameter of the


00:24:38.120 --> 00:24:41.110
earth and that would kind of make sense


00:24:41.120 --> 00:24:42.750
density wise that would place it a


00:24:42.760 --> 00:24:44.870
little bit less dense of the Earth but


00:24:44.880 --> 00:24:46.710
that might make sense it's a little bit


00:24:46.720 --> 00:24:49.830
cooler for a lot of its orbit even in


00:24:49.840 --> 00:24:52.029
that scenario the acceleration due to


00:24:52.039 --> 00:24:54.110
gravity on its surface will be 50%


00:24:54.120 --> 00:24:55.669
higher than that we have on the Earth


00:24:55.679 --> 00:24:58.070
right now you know so gravity will be


00:24:58.080 --> 00:24:59.950
strong we'd probably all if we were


00:24:59.960 --> 00:25:02.430
there be Squat and dumpy and grumbling


00:25:02.440 --> 00:25:04.230
about how heavy we feel and all the rest


00:25:04.240 --> 00:25:05.950
of it you know I'm heavy enough already


00:25:05.960 --> 00:25:07.510
without giving me


00:25:07.520 --> 00:25:11.830
50 yes no that's a fair point but uh


00:25:11.840 --> 00:25:13.350
yeah these these stories are not


00:25:13.360 --> 00:25:15.590
uncommon now and you make a a very valid


00:25:15.600 --> 00:25:17.269
point that people will just you know


00:25:17.279 --> 00:25:19.430
when the day comes that we've genuinely


00:25:19.440 --> 00:25:21.549
got an earth like planet Earth


00:25:21.559 --> 00:25:24.590
2.0 uh that could Harbor life people to


00:25:24.600 --> 00:25:28.710
go yeah Roo yeah heard it all before and


00:25:28.720 --> 00:25:31.110
it it's dangerous and quite often the


00:25:31.120 --> 00:25:33.070
researchers involved don't have control


00:25:33.080 --> 00:25:35.230
of that story that's one of the reasons


00:25:35.240 --> 00:25:37.430
I love working with websites like the


00:25:37.440 --> 00:25:38.830
conversation where I control the


00:25:38.840 --> 00:25:40.710
narrative when I write articles but it's


00:25:40.720 --> 00:25:42.870
also why I really appreciate our media


00:25:42.880 --> 00:25:45.590
team here at unq because they actually


00:25:45.600 --> 00:25:47.070
talked with them when they're writing


00:25:47.080 --> 00:25:49.269
media releases and a lot of the bigger


00:25:49.279 --> 00:25:51.350
universities the media team get a hold


00:25:51.360 --> 00:25:52.710
of the paper and they write their own


00:25:52.720 --> 00:25:54.430
interpretation of it with a couple of


00:25:54.440 --> 00:25:55.830
quotes from the authors but they don't


00:25:55.840 --> 00:25:58.430
let the authors read the release then


00:25:58.440 --> 00:25:59.830
you get journalists who read the media


00:25:59.840 --> 00:26:01.950
releasee and spin it further yeah and


00:26:01.960 --> 00:26:03.590
you end up from an article that says we


00:26:03.600 --> 00:26:05.190
found a planet that is interesting to


00:26:05.200 --> 00:26:07.590
being new Earth planet has been found


00:26:07.600 --> 00:26:10.669
life 2. not is there and that's not what


00:26:10.679 --> 00:26:13.350
anybody actually said no but it's a good


00:26:13.360 --> 00:26:14.750
way to get hits and links to your


00:26:14.760 --> 00:26:18.310
University's website exactly yeah okay


00:26:18.320 --> 00:26:20.350
uh if you'd like to read up on that uh


00:26:20.360 --> 00:26:22.389
the genuine article I'm talking about uh


00:26:22.399 --> 00:26:24.789
you can find it in the journal astronomy


00:26:24.799 --> 00:26:25.710
and


00:26:25.720 --> 00:26:27.870
astrophysics if you feel better now that


00:26:27.880 --> 00:26:30.149
you've got that off your chest joh oh


00:26:30.159 --> 00:26:32.110
this is a Perpetual rant of man I


00:26:32.120 --> 00:26:34.750
actually did with my former Mentor Barry


00:26:34.760 --> 00:26:36.830
Jones who passed away about a decade ago


00:26:36.840 --> 00:26:39.710
now um we wrote my first ever review


00:26:39.720 --> 00:26:41.830
paper back in 2010 where I dag it dug


00:26:41.840 --> 00:26:44.029
into this so it always used to bug me


00:26:44.039 --> 00:26:45.990
that it was just is in the habitable


00:26:46.000 --> 00:26:48.350
zone right that's job done and so we


00:26:48.360 --> 00:26:49.990
wrote this paper where we looked at all


00:26:50.000 --> 00:26:51.590
of the other things people have proposed


00:26:51.600 --> 00:26:53.230
that could make a planet more habitable


00:26:53.240 --> 00:26:55.669
or less habitable more suitable and for


00:26:55.679 --> 00:26:58.630
me the thing here is when we get get to


00:26:58.640 --> 00:27:00.669
do observations to look for life on


00:27:00.679 --> 00:27:02.350
these planets which is still a bit


00:27:02.360 --> 00:27:04.149
beyond us but we're getting towards that


00:27:04.159 --> 00:27:06.630
point those observations are going to be


00:27:06.640 --> 00:27:08.510
the hardest observations Humanity's ever


00:27:08.520 --> 00:27:10.590
had to carry out you're talking hundreds


00:27:10.600 --> 00:27:12.269
or thousands of hours on the biggest


00:27:12.279 --> 00:27:15.710
space telescopes really competitive time


00:27:15.720 --> 00:27:16.830
you're not going to be able to look at


00:27:16.840 --> 00:27:18.149
them all so you're going to have to find


00:27:18.159 --> 00:27:20.149
a way to pick the best Target you're


00:27:20.159 --> 00:27:21.350
going to have to find a way to whittle


00:27:21.360 --> 00:27:22.870
down a list of hundreds or thousands


00:27:22.880 --> 00:27:25.230
into the best two or three and you can't


00:27:25.240 --> 00:27:26.870
just use the habitables on that so I


00:27:26.880 --> 00:27:28.549
thought let's look at all the things


00:27:28.559 --> 00:27:30.909
that can impact habitability to see if


00:27:30.919 --> 00:27:32.549
you can turn them almost into the volume


00:27:32.559 --> 00:27:35.430
sliders on the mixing desk of the DJ


00:27:35.440 --> 00:27:36.710
right you can turn them up turn them


00:27:36.720 --> 00:27:39.510
down and see which planet gets the best


00:27:39.520 --> 00:27:41.230
score overall when you factor all of


00:27:41.240 --> 00:27:43.149
them in and some of them are things we


00:27:43.159 --> 00:27:44.590
can't yet observe some of them are


00:27:44.600 --> 00:27:46.269
things you might have to model with


00:27:46.279 --> 00:27:48.950
computer modeling like I do but it can


00:27:48.960 --> 00:27:50.350
be everything from the nature of the


00:27:50.360 --> 00:27:53.110
star itself how variable it is all the


00:27:53.120 --> 00:27:54.750
way through to the other planets in the


00:27:54.760 --> 00:27:56.470
system what their gravity does how much


00:27:56.480 --> 00:27:58.750
debris there is and even down to the


00:27:58.760 --> 00:28:00.269
planet itself whether it has PL


00:28:00.279 --> 00:28:02.110
tectonics whether it has magnetic field


00:28:02.120 --> 00:28:04.389
all of these things will factor in it's


00:28:04.399 --> 00:28:06.389
not just as simple as where do you play


00:28:06.399 --> 00:28:09.830
it is it in the right spot no valid


00:28:09.840 --> 00:28:12.669
point all right uh yeah as I said you


00:28:12.679 --> 00:28:14.310
can uh chase that story up about


00:28:14.320 --> 00:28:16.630
astronomy and astrophysics uh you could


00:28:16.640 --> 00:28:18.190
probably find it just about anywhere


00:28:18.200 --> 00:28:20.310
online uh there's an article on


00:28:20.320 --> 00:28:23.190
space.com as well this is Space Nuts


00:28:23.200 --> 00:28:29.070
with Andrew Dunley and joty Horner


00:28:29.080 --> 00:28:31.870
and I feel fine Space Nuts right our


00:28:31.880 --> 00:28:36.070
next story uh which we've uh done before


00:28:36.080 --> 00:28:39.190
we did it a week ago uh about uh the


00:28:39.200 --> 00:28:42.909
comet 2024 yr4 I happen to be playing


00:28:42.919 --> 00:28:46.190
our podcast in the car I always like to


00:28:46.200 --> 00:28:48.310
listen to it just to see how it sounds


00:28:48.320 --> 00:28:50.509
and you know decide whether or not I'm


00:28:50.519 --> 00:28:53.350
doing a good job or not did it in radio


00:28:53.360 --> 00:28:55.630
do it with the podcast but I I was


00:28:55.640 --> 00:28:57.830
picking up our grandchildren from school


00:28:57.840 --> 00:29:03.230
and and uh Nathaniel who um is 10 years


00:29:03.240 --> 00:29:05.990
old um he was listening and he said to


00:29:06.000 --> 00:29:09.870
me is it comat going to hit Earth and I


00:29:09.880 --> 00:29:12.110
had to kind of explain to him what was


00:29:12.120 --> 00:29:14.310
going on without alarming


00:29:14.320 --> 00:29:17.389
him uh and now an update on the story


00:29:17.399 --> 00:29:20.789
last week we were saying um there was a


00:29:20.799 --> 00:29:24.549
70 to 77% chance of this thing um


00:29:24.559 --> 00:29:26.789
hitting the atmosphere in


00:29:26.799 --> 00:29:29.590
20327 so


00:29:29.600 --> 00:29:32.350
sorry yeah see that's that was a popular


00:29:32.360 --> 00:29:35.070
press comment one in S7 but now that


00:29:35.080 --> 00:29:38.470
number's dropped as at now but that


00:29:38.480 --> 00:29:41.269
could change again absolutely so as of


00:29:41.279 --> 00:29:43.070
today so when I sent you notes through


00:29:43.080 --> 00:29:46.190
yesterday it was at 1 in 43 he now


00:29:46.200 --> 00:29:48.389
falling back to 1 in 48 this number is


00:29:48.399 --> 00:29:51.070
changing every day and what we will see


00:29:51.080 --> 00:29:52.830
and what we'll continue to see is most


00:29:52.840 --> 00:29:56.789
likely those odds of an impact gradually


00:29:56.799 --> 00:29:59.269
increasing and until eventually they


00:29:59.279 --> 00:30:02.269
most likely drop to zero and the reason


00:30:02.279 --> 00:30:03.269
for that is we're getting more


00:30:03.279 --> 00:30:05.389
observations with every day that passes


00:30:05.399 --> 00:30:06.990
and so with every day that passes we get


00:30:07.000 --> 00:30:10.029
a refined estimate of the orbit of this


00:30:10.039 --> 00:30:13.070
thing that then means that the exact


00:30:13.080 --> 00:30:15.149
location of the object on 22nd of


00:30:15.159 --> 00:30:18.750
December 2032 has a smaller uncertainty


00:30:18.760 --> 00:30:21.149
so that big area of space that we think


00:30:21.159 --> 00:30:22.950
it will be in with each day's


00:30:22.960 --> 00:30:25.669
observations get smaller and smaller now


00:30:25.679 --> 00:30:27.590
if the Earth is still in that area of


00:30:27.600 --> 00:30:28.590
space


00:30:28.600 --> 00:30:30.350
the Earth is a bigger fraction of that


00:30:30.360 --> 00:30:32.669
total volume of space and so the


00:30:32.679 --> 00:30:34.710
probability of impact is going up


00:30:34.720 --> 00:30:36.029
because we're a bigger fraction of the


00:30:36.039 --> 00:30:38.149
total area that thing could be in but at


00:30:38.159 --> 00:30:40.070
some point as that volume of space


00:30:40.080 --> 00:30:42.350
shrinks down the Earth could fall out of


00:30:42.360 --> 00:30:44.029
it and at that point the probability


00:30:44.039 --> 00:30:46.549
immediately drops to zero so it isn't a


00:30:46.559 --> 00:30:48.789
reason to panic at all this is exactly


00:30:48.799 --> 00:30:51.750
the behavior you would expect to see but


00:30:51.760 --> 00:30:53.630
that probability will continue to change


00:30:53.640 --> 00:30:55.470
day by day wouldn't surprise me if it


00:30:55.480 --> 00:30:58.470
keeps getting higher now this asid we're


00:30:58.480 --> 00:31:00.389
probably going to lose Tru of in about


00:31:00.399 --> 00:31:02.310
April a little bit too far away to


00:31:02.320 --> 00:31:04.750
observe then we won't see it again till


00:31:04.760 --> 00:31:07.029
2028 people are digging back through


00:31:07.039 --> 00:31:11.350
archival observations from 2016 2012


00:31:11.360 --> 00:31:13.549
2008 because this thing comes roughly


00:31:13.559 --> 00:31:16.029
near the Earth every four years or so if


00:31:16.039 --> 00:31:18.909
we find it by chance on one photograph


00:31:18.919 --> 00:31:21.230
from one of those previous years this


00:31:21.240 --> 00:31:22.909
probability will change dramatically and


00:31:22.919 --> 00:31:24.389
will'll probably drop to zero straight


00:31:24.399 --> 00:31:27.310
away if not we'll have to wait till 2028


00:31:27.320 --> 00:31:28.950
and until then then we'll see this


00:31:28.960 --> 00:31:31.350
continual slight wobbling around as each


00:31:31.360 --> 00:31:33.230
day's observations coming and it gets


00:31:33.240 --> 00:31:36.230
recalculated so fundamentally nothing


00:31:36.240 --> 00:31:38.110
has changed this things still pose as a


00:31:38.120 --> 00:31:40.029
threat do not panic even if it were to


00:31:40.039 --> 00:31:41.430
hit us it's not really going to cause a


00:31:41.440 --> 00:31:43.750
problem anyway to be brutally honest but


00:31:43.760 --> 00:31:46.389
it is fascinating to watch this happen


00:31:46.399 --> 00:31:48.990
and to see that evolution in real


00:31:49.000 --> 00:31:51.430
time absolutely yeah I think I said


00:31:51.440 --> 00:31:54.710
Comet I meant asteroid but um yeah 2024


00:31:54.720 --> 00:31:58.149
y4 if you do a search on Google whatever


00:31:58.159 --> 00:31:59.590
your favorite search engine is you'll


00:31:59.600 --> 00:32:01.029
find plenty of


00:32:01.039 --> 00:32:04.190
information and you I I would advise


00:32:04.200 --> 00:32:06.549
filtering the popular press comments


00:32:06.559 --> 00:32:09.029
because that they uh they've been going


00:32:09.039 --> 00:32:11.350
hammer and tongs on this one absolutely


00:32:11.360 --> 00:32:14.470
um but yeah it like like Johny said on


00:32:14.480 --> 00:32:16.909
the previous story uh it's clickbait


00:32:16.919 --> 00:32:18.830
isn't it um that's something that's


00:32:18.840 --> 00:32:21.549
really it but I I did reassure my


00:32:21.559 --> 00:32:23.430
grandson because as soon as I finished


00:32:23.440 --> 00:32:25.590
explaining it he wanted to talk about


00:32:25.600 --> 00:32:28.190
Pokemon so I think I was sucess in


00:32:28.200 --> 00:32:31.269
deflecting him there uh to our final


00:32:31.279 --> 00:32:34.149
story jonty and this one is about stuff


00:32:34.159 --> 00:32:36.470
that's hitting the atmosphere we're


00:32:36.480 --> 00:32:39.669
talking specifically about the um


00:32:39.679 --> 00:32:43.430
turnover of SpaceX satellites uh they've


00:32:43.440 --> 00:32:47.230
been starting to rain down on Earth uh


00:32:47.240 --> 00:32:49.029
fairly regularly in fact uh the Space


00:32:49.039 --> 00:32:52.430
Nuts podcast group on Facebook uh has


00:32:52.440 --> 00:32:55.149
been um discussing this they they put an


00:32:55.159 --> 00:32:57.990
article on there that the the listeners


00:32:58.000 --> 00:33:01.389
were discussing and some some were quite


00:33:01.399 --> 00:33:03.389
surprised by the kinds of numbers we're


00:33:03.399 --> 00:33:05.310
talking about but this is just going to


00:33:05.320 --> 00:33:07.950
get more and more significant as time


00:33:07.960 --> 00:33:09.430
goes on because they haven't finished


00:33:09.440 --> 00:33:10.710
deploying their


00:33:10.720 --> 00:33:13.110
entire uh Fleet or whatever you want to


00:33:13.120 --> 00:33:16.870
call them of SpaceX satellites yeah this


00:33:16.880 --> 00:33:19.350
is yet another multifaceted story so I


00:33:19.360 --> 00:33:21.789
know a lot of people who get very


00:33:21.799 --> 00:33:23.350
passionate in their defense of SpaceX


00:33:23.360 --> 00:33:25.230
and the AL musk and many others who have


00:33:25.240 --> 00:33:26.710
very negative views of them and I was


00:33:26.720 --> 00:33:28.909
try and be somewhere in the middle big


00:33:28.919 --> 00:33:30.990
sack it's like in literature if you ever


00:33:31.000 --> 00:33:34.070
read a book very few people are purely


00:33:34.080 --> 00:33:35.470
evil or purely good everybody's


00:33:35.480 --> 00:33:37.269
somewhere in the middle unless it's a


00:33:37.279 --> 00:33:40.070
bad book and it's the same with things


00:33:40.080 --> 00:33:41.470
like this there's a lot of good about


00:33:41.480 --> 00:33:43.789
this and a lot of bad about it now Spex


00:33:43.799 --> 00:33:46.549
are putting up their St satellites to


00:33:46.559 --> 00:33:49.909
deliver internet access which is a great


00:33:49.919 --> 00:33:51.269
benefit to people in the regions you


00:33:51.279 --> 00:33:53.669
know and I've heard plenty of stories of


00:33:53.679 --> 00:33:55.190
people who are living remotely in


00:33:55.200 --> 00:33:56.789
Australia who can't get a good internet


00:33:56.799 --> 00:33:58.110
connection and styling has been


00:33:58.120 --> 00:34:00.590
revolutionary to them yeah and and


00:34:00.600 --> 00:34:03.830
cruise ships use styling AB because


00:34:03.840 --> 00:34:05.750
they're always they're in remote areas a


00:34:05.760 --> 00:34:08.829
lot yeah it is a really incredible


00:34:08.839 --> 00:34:10.310
technological development on the other


00:34:10.320 --> 00:34:11.710
hand you've got all the concerns about


00:34:11.720 --> 00:34:13.629
the light pollution from these


00:34:13.639 --> 00:34:16.030
things and the fact that they launch


00:34:16.040 --> 00:34:17.669
them without anybody really being able


00:34:17.679 --> 00:34:21.669
to regulate it or say boot about it it


00:34:21.679 --> 00:34:23.790
it's a multifaceted problem and there's


00:34:23.800 --> 00:34:26.230
good things and bad things about it in


00:34:26.240 --> 00:34:28.790
much the same way this story is both a


00:34:28.800 --> 00:34:30.710
good and bad story you've got all these


00:34:30.720 --> 00:34:33.669
satellites up there and they have finite


00:34:33.679 --> 00:34:36.710
lifetimes they are low down because you


00:34:36.720 --> 00:34:38.470
need them to be in low earth orbit in


00:34:38.480 --> 00:34:39.990
order to get good latency if you put


00:34:40.000 --> 00:34:42.149
these at G stationary orbit you've got


00:34:42.159 --> 00:34:43.790
the light travel time there and Back


00:34:43.800 --> 00:34:46.270
Again you've got a long way to go and


00:34:46.280 --> 00:34:48.270
that puts a significant ping which means


00:34:48.280 --> 00:34:50.389
for the people playing twitch games and


00:34:50.399 --> 00:34:52.790
firstperson shooter games they complain


00:34:52.800 --> 00:34:55.750
and Suk um but everybody wants a faster


00:34:55.760 --> 00:34:57.030
internet connection with the lowest


00:34:57.040 --> 00:34:58.710
latency possible so these things are in


00:34:58.720 --> 00:35:00.910
low earth orbit which means that they


00:35:00.920 --> 00:35:03.230
are moving through a significant chunk


00:35:03.240 --> 00:35:04.510
of the Earth's atmosphere the Earth's


00:35:04.520 --> 00:35:05.990
atmosphere doesn't just stop it just


00:35:06.000 --> 00:35:07.390
gets thinner and thinner and thinner the


00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:09.390
further you go away technically the


00:35:09.400 --> 00:35:10.790
Moon's still encountering bits of the


00:35:10.800 --> 00:35:12.069
Earth's atmosphere it should by that


00:35:12.079 --> 00:35:13.750
point it's still thinnest to be


00:35:13.760 --> 00:35:15.430
irrelevant but at the altitude of these


00:35:15.440 --> 00:35:17.870
siling satellites they are actually


00:35:17.880 --> 00:35:20.870
traveling into a headwind so without


00:35:20.880 --> 00:35:22.230
something to bump them up they would


00:35:22.240 --> 00:35:24.150
eventually come down naturally anyway


00:35:24.160 --> 00:35:27.829
but also they are a fixed term thing


00:35:27.839 --> 00:35:30.030
they typically I think thinking about an


00:35:30.040 --> 00:35:31.470
individual satellite having about a


00:35:31.480 --> 00:35:34.270
fiveyear lifetime yeah now it's about


00:35:34.280 --> 00:35:35.950
five years since the Starlet Sates


00:35:35.960 --> 00:35:37.470
started getting launched which means the


00:35:37.480 --> 00:35:40.109
very first generation of them are now in


00:35:40.119 --> 00:35:41.670
their retirement


00:35:41.680 --> 00:35:45.270
phase what is really good about this is


00:35:45.280 --> 00:35:48.630
that SpaceX and starlink are being very


00:35:48.640 --> 00:35:50.990
aggressive in the retirement in that


00:35:51.000 --> 00:35:52.589
they are controlling these things and


00:35:52.599 --> 00:35:54.069
deliberately putting them back in the


00:35:54.079 --> 00:35:55.710
atmosphere to burn up in a controlled


00:35:55.720 --> 00:35:57.750
fashion so they're controlling where


00:35:57.760 --> 00:35:59.109
they drop them into the atmosphere to


00:35:59.119 --> 00:36:01.990
minimize the risk to air travel and the


00:36:02.000 --> 00:36:03.630
risk of them dropping on a city and


00:36:03.640 --> 00:36:06.230
things like this and that is really good


00:36:06.240 --> 00:36:07.710
governance it's really important to say


00:36:07.720 --> 00:36:09.910
that there's a lot of stuff up there


00:36:09.920 --> 00:36:11.710
that will come down of its own accord at


00:36:11.720 --> 00:36:14.550
its own time with no control over it and


00:36:14.560 --> 00:36:16.630
that's a risk and people are talking


00:36:16.640 --> 00:36:17.990
about the fact that there's probably as


00:36:18.000 --> 00:36:20.790
high as a 26% chance that in a given


00:36:20.800 --> 00:36:23.349
year from now on Space Dey will fall


00:36:23.359 --> 00:36:25.510
through a populated


00:36:25.520 --> 00:36:27.870
airspace which is problematic there's


00:36:27.880 --> 00:36:29.670
even studies saying there's a one in 10


00:36:29.680 --> 00:36:31.589
chance that within the next decade


00:36:31.599 --> 00:36:33.430
somebody will die as a result of Spar


00:36:33.440 --> 00:36:36.870
Dey hitting them so that's a concern and


00:36:36.880 --> 00:36:38.950
by deliberately deorbiting these things


00:36:38.960 --> 00:36:40.230
in a controlled fashion they're


00:36:40.240 --> 00:36:42.030
mitigating those risks they're putting


00:36:42.040 --> 00:36:44.510
things down in a safe fashion but


00:36:44.520 --> 00:36:45.910
because of how many satellites they're


00:36:45.920 --> 00:36:47.710
putting up there that means we've got an


00:36:47.720 --> 00:36:49.390
increasing number of them coming back


00:36:49.400 --> 00:36:52.510
down there are currently 7,000 stying


00:36:52.520 --> 00:36:54.710
satellites up there the goal is to get


00:36:54.720 --> 00:36:58.270
up to 42,000 that is their sta there so


00:36:58.280 --> 00:37:01.950
that's of more yeah that's just Starling


00:37:01.960 --> 00:37:04.670
because there are many others there are


00:37:04.680 --> 00:37:06.589
if you look at all of the proposed Mega


00:37:06.599 --> 00:37:08.309
constellations I think the current


00:37:08.319 --> 00:37:10.030
number is that there could be as many as


00:37:10.040 --> 00:37:12.589
550,000 satellites in orbit within a


00:37:12.599 --> 00:37:14.790
decade which makes me as an amateur


00:37:14.800 --> 00:37:16.670
astronomer the kind of P me that does


00:37:16.680 --> 00:37:18.309
out and observes mete shs and stuff just


00:37:18.319 --> 00:37:20.430
makes me weak because we'll lose the


00:37:20.440 --> 00:37:22.790
night sky to such a degree but that


00:37:22.800 --> 00:37:25.069
that's a slightly separate thing with


00:37:25.079 --> 00:37:26.950
7,000 up there at the minute the


00:37:26.960 --> 00:37:28.670
retirements of those first gen ones are


00:37:28.680 --> 00:37:30.190
now coming at a rate of four or five


00:37:30.200 --> 00:37:33.109
satellites per day so that means four or


00:37:33.119 --> 00:37:34.829
five satellites are burning up somewhere


00:37:34.839 --> 00:37:37.990
over the Earth every single day of the


00:37:38.000 --> 00:37:39.069
calendar


00:37:39.079 --> 00:37:41.190
year that's only going to go up because


00:37:41.200 --> 00:37:42.589
if you increase the number of satellites


00:37:42.599 --> 00:37:45.109
up there by a factor of six times then


00:37:45.119 --> 00:37:46.150
you'll increase that number of


00:37:46.160 --> 00:37:48.270
re-entries per day by factor of six


00:37:48.280 --> 00:37:50.710
times so within five years we could well


00:37:50.720 --> 00:37:53.870
be looking at something nearer to 25 or


00:37:53.880 --> 00:37:55.670
even 30 satellites per day coming back


00:37:55.680 --> 00:37:57.910
into the atmosphere now the are coming


00:37:57.920 --> 00:38:00.030
in in a controlled fashion so they're


00:38:00.040 --> 00:38:01.990
trying to drop them in the atmosphere


00:38:02.000 --> 00:38:03.349
away from things that would be


00:38:03.359 --> 00:38:05.510
threatened by lumps of metal hitting the


00:38:05.520 --> 00:38:08.109
ice atmosphere essentially yeah but


00:38:08.119 --> 00:38:09.829
there is now a growing concern about the


00:38:09.839 --> 00:38:12.990
pollution side of this that's the I was


00:38:13.000 --> 00:38:15.309
getting yeah that's the that's the big


00:38:15.319 --> 00:38:17.390
if isn't it and it's a difficult one


00:38:17.400 --> 00:38:18.750
because it's not an experiment that's


00:38:18.760 --> 00:38:20.710
ever been done before things have


00:38:20.720 --> 00:38:22.870
re-entered um but in the past we've not


00:38:22.880 --> 00:38:24.510
been putting much up in space so it's


00:38:24.520 --> 00:38:26.829
been a very rare thing a little bit of


00:38:26.839 --> 00:38:28.230
extra material dumped into the


00:38:28.240 --> 00:38:30.750
atmosphere a tiny amount compared to the


00:38:30.760 --> 00:38:32.069
amount that comes in natural through


00:38:32.079 --> 00:38:33.550
metas and


00:38:33.560 --> 00:38:35.790
meteorites um stuff hitting the S


00:38:35.800 --> 00:38:36.950
atmosphere naturally but we're now


00:38:36.960 --> 00:38:38.430
getting to a stage where this is a


00:38:38.440 --> 00:38:40.990
significant amount of material entering


00:38:41.000 --> 00:38:42.470
the S atmosphere each of these


00:38:42.480 --> 00:38:44.230
generation one satellites is several


00:38:44.240 --> 00:38:47.270
hundred kilos of material so when you've


00:38:47.280 --> 00:38:48.910
got five of them coming in a day that's


00:38:48.920 --> 00:38:51.470
a couple of tons of material being a


00:38:51.480 --> 00:38:53.950
bled and added to the atmosphere mainly


00:38:53.960 --> 00:38:55.270
in the form of heavy


00:38:55.280 --> 00:38:58.109
metals there is a fact that I've pulled


00:38:58.119 --> 00:38:59.630
out of an interesting article India


00:38:59.640 --> 00:39:01.349
Today of all places have got a fairly


00:39:01.359 --> 00:39:03.630
good article about this and one thing


00:39:03.640 --> 00:39:05.990
they point out is that each individual


00:39:06.000 --> 00:39:07.670
one of these generation one St


00:39:07.680 --> 00:39:09.150
satellites when it burns up in the


00:39:09.160 --> 00:39:11.670
atmosphere when it a blades deposits


00:39:11.680 --> 00:39:15.470
about 30 kilos of aluminium oxide into


00:39:15.480 --> 00:39:16.990
the upper atmosphere about where the


00:39:17.000 --> 00:39:19.550
ozone layer is now that's a problem


00:39:19.560 --> 00:39:21.790
because aluminium oxide is a compound


00:39:21.800 --> 00:39:24.069
that is known to be very devastating to


00:39:24.079 --> 00:39:26.710
the ozone layer it's a real problem now


00:39:26.720 --> 00:39:29.510
if each s is dumping 30 kg into the


00:39:29.520 --> 00:39:31.550
atmosphere that has the potential to


00:39:31.560 --> 00:39:34.190
destroy a large amount of ozone if


00:39:34.200 --> 00:39:35.990
you're suddenly dumping five of them in


00:39:36.000 --> 00:39:40.190
per day that's 150 kilos per day if you


00:39:40.200 --> 00:39:43.390
go up to the 25 obviously that goes up


00:39:43.400 --> 00:39:46.550
again from 150 kilos to what 5 time 150


00:39:46.560 --> 00:39:47.309
is


00:39:47.319 --> 00:39:51.109
750 nil your ton of aluminium oxide per


00:39:51.119 --> 00:39:53.589
day something that can damage the oone L


00:39:53.599 --> 00:39:55.390
and we've only just got out of the time


00:39:55.400 --> 00:39:56.790
where we did an incredible job of


00:39:56.800 --> 00:39:58.990
preventing is killing the ozone layer


00:39:59.000 --> 00:40:01.550
yeah we're about to start it again


00:40:01.560 --> 00:40:03.510
people have tried to do some


00:40:03.520 --> 00:40:05.349
computational studies of the effects of


00:40:05.359 --> 00:40:06.790
adding all this metal to the upper


00:40:06.800 --> 00:40:08.790
atmosphere and nobody really knows


00:40:08.800 --> 00:40:10.630
what's going to happen some Studies have


00:40:10.640 --> 00:40:13.349
said that it could accidentally help to


00:40:13.359 --> 00:40:14.990
slightly mitigate climate change but it


00:40:15.000 --> 00:40:16.589
might increase the albo of the a


00:40:16.599 --> 00:40:18.150
atmosphere it might cause more clouds to


00:40:18.160 --> 00:40:20.190
form so it could reflect a bit more


00:40:20.200 --> 00:40:22.430
sunlight or could be good but other


00:40:22.440 --> 00:40:24.069
Studies have suggested the opposite that


00:40:24.079 --> 00:40:25.270
it could actually lower the amount of


00:40:25.280 --> 00:40:27.790
clouds we've got and also a bit more


00:40:27.800 --> 00:40:30.349
Greenhouse nastiness to the mix so it


00:40:30.359 --> 00:40:31.790
could have an impact on our climate we


00:40:31.800 --> 00:40:33.230
don't know which way it'll go it could


00:40:33.240 --> 00:40:35.710
have an impact on the ozone layer we


00:40:35.720 --> 00:40:37.309
just don't know yet and so what's


00:40:37.319 --> 00:40:39.790
happening with this is we're effectively


00:40:39.800 --> 00:40:41.349
running a science experiment like the


00:40:41.359 --> 00:40:42.790
ones you do in the lab the ones you do


00:40:42.800 --> 00:40:45.430
at school without ever done it without


00:40:45.440 --> 00:40:47.589
ever having done it before and we're


00:40:47.599 --> 00:40:49.430
running it on the planet that is our own


00:40:49.440 --> 00:40:52.470
home so I guess it's a bit like you know


00:40:52.480 --> 00:40:54.390
you've got two unruly toddlers running


00:40:54.400 --> 00:40:57.349
around with um insects cray like the


00:40:57.359 --> 00:40:58.510
stuff you've got to get rid of the


00:40:58.520 --> 00:41:01.069
mosquitoes yeah running around emptying


00:41:01.079 --> 00:41:02.670
can after can of that in your house and


00:41:02.680 --> 00:41:03.950
you're just saying yeah well let's do it


00:41:03.960 --> 00:41:05.270
what's the worst that can happen and you


00:41:05.280 --> 00:41:09.230
just don't know yeah uh 42,000


00:41:09.240 --> 00:41:10.750
satellites when they're ultimately all


00:41:10.760 --> 00:41:12.470
up there coming back down into the


00:41:12.480 --> 00:41:16.109
atmosphere we'll deposit 1.26 million


00:41:16.119 --> 00:41:19.950
kilograms of aluminium oxide so and


00:41:19.960 --> 00:41:21.950
that's going to be continuous because


00:41:21.960 --> 00:41:23.870
they it's not just


00:41:23.880 --> 00:41:26.109
42,000 as they come down they'll replace


00:41:26.119 --> 00:41:29.069
them and add more to get to their full


00:41:29.079 --> 00:41:32.349
structure so it'll be an ongoing thing


00:41:32.359 --> 00:41:34.349
multiplied by however many


00:41:34.359 --> 00:41:36.309
constellations are created to do the


00:41:36.319 --> 00:41:38.710
same thing so but it isn't also like


00:41:38.720 --> 00:41:40.430
that is easily recoverable that's a lot


00:41:40.440 --> 00:41:43.069
of resources that we're just losing yeah


00:41:43.079 --> 00:41:46.030
exactly um now I could imagine a much


00:41:46.040 --> 00:41:47.910
further future where instead of things


00:41:47.920 --> 00:41:50.550
being retired by deorbiting them you


00:41:50.560 --> 00:41:52.430
retire them by boosting them to kind of


00:41:52.440 --> 00:41:54.230
graveyard orbits and have something


00:41:54.240 --> 00:41:55.870
there collecting them and melting them


00:41:55.880 --> 00:41:58.109
down for the materials H but that's why


00:41:58.119 --> 00:41:59.430
in the future because that will be a lot


00:41:59.440 --> 00:42:01.470
more expensive it's cheaper at the


00:42:01.480 --> 00:42:03.550
minute to just throw them away I mean we


00:42:03.560 --> 00:42:05.309
see with recycling efforts that there's


00:42:05.319 --> 00:42:07.910
not much motivation to recycle when


00:42:07.920 --> 00:42:10.710
making things from new products is still


00:42:10.720 --> 00:42:13.230
cheaper yeah well if I could solve the


00:42:13.240 --> 00:42:16.270
latency problem that would maybe help


00:42:16.280 --> 00:42:18.550
cure it as well but how do you do that


00:42:18.560 --> 00:42:20.670
relay stations on Earth I don't know I


00:42:20.680 --> 00:42:23.150
don't know but uh yeah that that's a


00:42:23.160 --> 00:42:25.030
really fascinating story I know Fred and


00:42:25.040 --> 00:42:26.349
I have talked about it before but it's


00:42:26.359 --> 00:42:28.349
worth revisiting and uh yeah the


00:42:28.359 --> 00:42:31.470
information just keeps evolving over


00:42:31.480 --> 00:42:34.990
time and we're not nearly at capacity


00:42:35.000 --> 00:42:36.630
yet with these constellations if you'd


00:42:36.640 --> 00:42:39.349
like to read it uh as jonty said it's uh


00:42:39.359 --> 00:42:42.190
on the website


00:42:42.200 --> 00:42:44.549
indiatoday.in that brings us to the end


00:42:44.559 --> 00:42:45.910
of the show don't forget to visit our


00:42:45.920 --> 00:42:48.030
website or our social media sites plenty


00:42:48.040 --> 00:42:50.710
of things to see and do there uh if you


00:42:50.720 --> 00:42:52.030
have any thoughts on any of the things


00:42:52.040 --> 00:42:54.230
we've discussed by all means uh send us


00:42:54.240 --> 00:42:56.150
a message via our website just there's a


00:42:56.160 --> 00:42:59.630
little button up top of our homepage um


00:42:59.640 --> 00:43:02.069
AMA where you can send us messages and


00:43:02.079 --> 00:43:04.349
audio questions or whatever you like


00:43:04.359 --> 00:43:05.829
Space Nuts


00:43:05.839 --> 00:43:09.950
podcast.com or SPAC nuts. is the place


00:43:09.960 --> 00:43:12.750
to go John D thank you so much we're at


00:43:12.760 --> 00:43:14.150
the end we'll catch up with you real


00:43:14.160 --> 00:43:16.390
soon it's absolute pleasure thank you


00:43:16.400 --> 00:43:18.670
for having me uh Johny Horner professor


00:43:18.680 --> 00:43:20.349
of astrophysics at the University of


00:43:20.359 --> 00:43:22.069
Southern Queensland thanks to Hugh in


00:43:22.079 --> 00:43:25.309
the studio who um well he he couldn't be


00:43:25.319 --> 00:43:27.870
with us today cuz he got hit by a piece


00:43:27.880 --> 00:43:29.630
of SpaceX


00:43:29.640 --> 00:43:33.150
satellite uh no no he didn't maybe he


00:43:33.160 --> 00:43:34.390
did I don't know I've been seen it for


00:43:34.400 --> 00:43:36.390
ages and from me Andrew Dunley thanks


00:43:36.400 --> 00:43:37.750
very much for your company we'll catch


00:43:37.760 --> 00:43:40.349
you on the next episode of Space Nuts


00:43:40.359 --> 00:43:42.950
bye for now Space Nuts you'll be


00:43:42.960 --> 00:43:45.829
listening to the Space Nuts


00:43:45.839 --> 00:43:48.910
podcast available at Apple podcasts


00:43:48.920 --> 00:43:51.910
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00:43:51.920 --> 00:43:54.150
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00:43:54.160 --> 00:43:56.790
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00:43:56.800 --> 00:43:58.990
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00:43:59.000 --> 00:44:02.280
from ds.com