Artemis II’s Historic Cargo, Orbital Debris Crisis, and AI Finds 7,000 New Worlds

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Welcome to Astronomy Daily. I'm Anna.


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>> And I'm Avery. It's Friday, January


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23rd, and we've got an amazing lineup of


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space stories to close out your week.


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>> We certainly do. Today, we're exploring


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NASA's plans to send some very special


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keepsakes around the moon on Artemis 2,


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Blue Origin's latest new Glenn launch


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plans, and some fascinating new research


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about where Earth's water really came


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from. Plus, we'll dive into a rather


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urgent warning about the increasing


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dangers of space debris, uncover new


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insights about how super massive black


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holes grew so quickly, and learn how AI


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is helping scientists discover thousands


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of new exoplanets. Let's get started.


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>> Avery, as Artemis 2 preparations


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continue at Kennedy Space Center, NASA


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has revealed something really special


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they'll be taking along for the ride.


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And it's not just the four astronauts.


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Oh, I love when missions carry


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meaningful items. What are they


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bringing?


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>> This is fascinating. The official flight


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kit includes a piece of fabric from the


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original 1903 Wright flyer. It's a tiny


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swatch just 1 in square from the very


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first aircraft that made the powered


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flight at Kittyhawk. What's even cooler


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is that this same piece already flew on


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the space shuttle Discovery back in


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1985.


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So, it's making its second journey to


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space. That's a beautiful connection


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between the beginning of powered flight


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and humanity's return to the moon. What


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else is in the flight kit?


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>> Bears an American flag with an


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incredible history. It flew on the very


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first shuttle mission, STS1, and the


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final shuttle mission, STS135.


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It also went up on SpaceX's first crude


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Dragon flight. Talk about bookending an


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era of space flight. That flag has seen


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some serious history. Is there anything


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connecting Artemis back to the Apollo


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program?


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>> Absolutely. They're flying a flag that


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was originally meant for Apollo 18, a


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mission that never happened. This will


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be its very first space flight, finally


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fulfilling its original destiny after


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all these years. There's also a photo


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negative from the Ranger 7 mission,


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which was the US first spacecraft to


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successfully reach the lunar surface


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back in the 1960s.


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>> It's like they're weaving together the


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entire story of American exploration.


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And knowing NASA, I bet they're


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including the public somehow.


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>> Of course, an SD card carrying millions


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of names, including ours, from the send


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your name to space campaign, will be


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aboard. NASA administrator Jared


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Isaacman put it beautifully when he


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said, "These artifacts reflect the long


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arc of American exploration and the


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generations of innovators who made this


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moment possible." With about 10 lbs of


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momentos in total, Artemis 2 will truly


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be carrying our collective history and


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dreams forward into the next chapter


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beyond Earth.


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>> What a perfect way to mark America's


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250th anniversary. Now, speaking of


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missions and launches, let's shift gears


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to Blue Origin and their New Glenn


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rocket.


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>> Blue Origin has announced their third


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New Glenn launch is scheduled for late


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February. And there's an interesting


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twist to this one.


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>> Let me guess, everyone expected them to


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fly their Blue Moon lunar lander next.


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Right.


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>> Exactly. But instead, they're launching


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a satellite for AS Space Mobile, making


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it the second commercial payload to fly


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on New Glenn. The Blue Moon Mark1 lander


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is currently being shipped to NASA's


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Johnson Space Center for vacuum chamber


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testing, and they haven't announced a


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launch date for that mission yet.


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>> So, what makes this particular launch


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notable?


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>> This will be the third new Glenn launch


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in just over a year, which is impressive


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considering the rocket spent a decade in


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development. But here's the really


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exciting part. They're reusing the


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booster from November's second flight.


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They successfully landed it on a drone


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ship in the ocean just like SpaceX does


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with Falcon 9.


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>> So, this demonstrates their reusability


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program is working. That's crucial for


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reducing launch costs. What else is Blue


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Origin working on?


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>> They've got some ambitious plans. In


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November, they revealed a Superheavy


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variant of New Glenn that will be taller


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than a Saturn 5 rocket on par with


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SpaceX's Starship. And just this week,


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they announced a satellite internet


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constellation called Terrowave that they


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plan to start deploying in late 2027.


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>> February is shaping up to be a busy


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month for space flight. NASA might


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launch Artemis 2 as early as February


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6th. SpaceX is testing the third version


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of Starship and Crew 12 to the


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International Space Station is also


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scheduled. Speaking of busy orbital


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environments, that brings us to our next


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story about space debris. Avery, this


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next story is both fascinating and a bit


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alarming. A new study has introduced


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something called the crash clock. And


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according to their calculations, if


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satellite operators suddenly lost the


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ability to maneuver their spacecraft, we


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could see a catastrophic collision in


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just 5.5 days.


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>> Wait, 5.5 days? That's incredibly short.


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What's driving this?


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>> Mega constellations. The researchers


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found that close approaches between


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satellites, defined as two satellites


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passing within 1 kilometer of each


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other, now happen every 22 seconds


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across all low Earth orbit mega


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constellations. For Starlink alone, it's


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once every 11 minutes. Each Starling


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satellite performs an average of 41


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avoidance maneuvers per year.


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>> Those numbers are staggering. And you


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said 5.5 days. I thought I'd heard this


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was originally 2.8 days.


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>> Good catch. The team updated their model


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based on community feedback. The


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original calculation was 2.8 days, but


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after incorporating expert input, they


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revised it to 5.5 days for 2025 data. By


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comparison, back in 2018, before the


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mega constellation era really took off,


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it would have taken 164 days before a


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collision. So, we've gone from 164 days


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down to 5.5 days in just 7 years. What


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could cause operators to lose control


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like that?


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>> Solar storms are the main threat. When a


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coronal mass ejection hits Earth, it


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heats up the upper atmosphere, creating


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more drag on satellites and making their


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trajectories harder to predict. During


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the Ganon storm in May 2024, over half


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of all satellites in low Earth orbit had


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to use fuel for repositioning maneuvers.


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More seriously, solar storms can knock


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out satellites navigational and


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communication systems, leaving them


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unable to maneuver at all.


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>> And solar storms don't give us much


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warning, do they?


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>> Typically, just a day or two at most.


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The study found that within 24 hours of


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losing maneuvering capability, there's a


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30% chance of a collision between


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tracked objects and a 26% chance of a


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collision involving a Starlink satellite


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specifically. Such collisions would be


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catastrophic, creating major debris


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generating events with high likelihood


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of secondary and tertiary collisions.


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That sounds like Kesler syndrome. The


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cascade effect where collisions create


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debris that causes more collisions.


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>> Exactly. Though the researchers want to


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be clear about something important. Lead


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author Sarah Theal emphasized they're


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not saying Kesler syndrome is days away.


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The crash clock only measures time to


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the first collision, not a runaway


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cascade. Bull Kesler syndrome would take


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decades or even centuries to develop.


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But the clock does show how reliant we


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are on errorless operations every single


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day.


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>> So it's more of a stress indicator for


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the orbital environment.


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>> Right. The team suggests the crash clock


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could serve as a key environmental


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indicator similar to how we use carbon


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emissions metrics for climate change.


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They're calling for improved debris


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mitigation, coordinated traffic


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management, and stronger space weather


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resilience measures to protect the


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technology modern society depends on.


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Now, let's shift from orbital concerns


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to lunar mysteries.


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>> For decades, Anna, scientists have


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assumed that Earth's water was delivered


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by asteroids and comets during the late


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heavy bombardment about 4 billion years


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ago. But new research from lunar samples


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is challenging that assumption.


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>> The Apollo samples are still teaching us


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new things after all these years. What


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did they find?


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>> Dr. Tony Gargano at the Lunar and


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Planetary Institute led a team that


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analyzed lunar rocks and regalith using


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high precision triple oxygen isotopes.


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They found that meteorites could only


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have supplied a small fraction of


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Earth's water, even by the most generous


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estimates. The lunar surface record sets


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a hard limit on volatile delivery.


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>> Why is the moon such a good record


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keeper for this?


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>> On Earth, tectonic plates constantly


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renew the surface, erasing traces of


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ancient impacts. But the moon is airless


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and hasn't had geological activity for


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billions of years. So, its geological


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records since the late heavy bombardment


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has been carefully preserved. It's like


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a cosmic history book that hasn't been


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edited. How did they approach the


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analysis differently from previous


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studies?


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>> Instead of focusing on metal loving


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elements like previous researchers,


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Gargano's team analyzed oxygen isotopes


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which make up the largest mass fraction


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of rocks. The oxygen triple isotope


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signature can separate two things that


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are often confused in lunar regalith.


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The addition of impactor material and


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the effects of impact induced


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vaporization on isotopic composition.


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And what did the oxygen isotopes tell


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them?


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>> They found that at least 1% of the


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moon's mass consists of impact related


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material, likely from carbonatous


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meteorites that partially vaporized on


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impact. From this, they calculated that


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only a tiny amount of water has been


00:10:11.120 --> 00:10:13.030
delivered to the Earth moon system since


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the late heavy bombardment compared to


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Earth's existing water.


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>> To put that in perspective, how much


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water does Earth have? Water covers over


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71% of Earth's surface, but it only


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accounts for about 0.023%


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of Earth's total mass. That still works


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out to roughly 1.466


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kg. That's 1.46 followed by 21.


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So even a tiny fraction of that is


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significant.


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>> Co-author Dr. Justin Simon from NASA


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summed it up well. The results don't say


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meteorites delivered no water, but they


00:10:49.360 --> 00:10:51.910
do make it very hard for late meteorite


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delivery to be the dominant source of


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Earth's oceans.


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>> This has interesting implications for


00:10:57.440 --> 00:10:59.430
lunar exploration, doesn't it?


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>> Absolutely. While meteorites may have


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delivered only a tiny fraction of


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Earth's water, their contribution could


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be crucial for the moon. Water ice in


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permanently shadowed regions is


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essential for establishing a sustained


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human presence, providing drinking


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water, irrigation, radiation shielding,


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and the means to make rocket propellant.


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As the researchers noted, that small


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amount of water delivered by impacts


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could be the single most important


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factor enabling humanity's expansion


00:11:31.360 --> 00:11:34.230
into space. From water on the moon to


00:11:34.240 --> 00:11:36.389
mysteries in the early universe, let's


00:11:36.399 --> 00:11:38.949
talk about super massive black holes.


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>> How did black holes get so big so fast?


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That's been one of astronomy's great


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mysteries, Avery. And researchers at


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Ireland's May University have found an


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answer.


00:11:50.240 --> 00:11:52.389
>> The James Webb Space Telescope has been


00:11:52.399 --> 00:11:54.230
finding these massive black holes in the


00:11:54.240 --> 00:11:55.990
early universe that shouldn't exist


00:11:56.000 --> 00:11:58.310
according to our previous models. Right.


00:11:58.320 --> 00:12:01.430
>> Exactly. These super massive black holes


00:12:01.440 --> 00:12:03.990
existed just a few hundred million years


00:12:04.000 --> 00:12:06.230
after the big bang and conventional


00:12:06.240 --> 00:12:08.150
theories said there wasn't enough time


00:12:08.160 --> 00:12:11.430
for them to grow so large. The May team


00:12:11.440 --> 00:12:14.949
led by PhD candidate Daxel Ma used


00:12:14.959 --> 00:12:17.430
state-of-the-art computer simulations to


00:12:17.440 --> 00:12:18.949
reveal what happened


00:12:18.959 --> 00:12:21.509
>> and what did they discover? The chaotic


00:12:21.519 --> 00:12:23.350
conditions in the early universe


00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:25.670
triggered these smaller black holes to


00:12:25.680 --> 00:12:28.550
undergo what they call a feeding frenzy,


00:12:28.560 --> 00:12:31.430
devouring material all around them. The


00:12:31.440 --> 00:12:33.910
dense gas-rich environments in early


00:12:33.920 --> 00:12:36.389
galaxies enabled something called


00:12:36.399 --> 00:12:38.790
superdington accretion.


00:12:38.800 --> 00:12:41.190
>> Super Edington accretion. That sounds


00:12:41.200 --> 00:12:42.389
intense. What is it?


00:12:42.399 --> 00:12:45.030
>> It's when a black hole eats matter


00:12:45.040 --> 00:12:47.590
faster than what's considered normal or


00:12:47.600 --> 00:12:50.790
safe. Normally, when matter falls into a


00:12:50.800 --> 00:12:53.110
black hole that quickly, it should blow


00:12:53.120 --> 00:12:55.910
the food away with radiation pressure.


00:12:55.920 --> 00:12:58.550
But somehow, in these early dense


00:12:58.560 --> 00:13:00.949
environments, the black holes kept


00:13:00.959 --> 00:13:04.470
eating anyway, growing incredibly fast


00:13:04.480 --> 00:13:07.509
into tens of thousands of times the mass


00:13:07.519 --> 00:13:08.629
of our sun.


00:13:08.639 --> 00:13:10.470
>> So, they found the missing link between


00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:12.790
the first stars and later super massive


00:13:12.800 --> 00:13:13.990
black holes.


00:13:14.000 --> 00:13:17.269
>> Yes, black holes come in two main seed


00:13:17.279 --> 00:13:19.750
types. light seeds, which start at only


00:13:19.760 --> 00:13:22.150
about 10 to a few hundred times the mass


00:13:22.160 --> 00:13:24.870
of our sun, and heavy seeds, which can


00:13:24.880 --> 00:13:28.389
start at up to 100,000 solar masses.


00:13:28.399 --> 00:13:30.310
Previously, astronomers thought you


00:13:30.320 --> 00:13:33.430
needed those rare heavy seeds to explain


00:13:33.440 --> 00:13:35.750
super massive black holes. But this


00:13:35.760 --> 00:13:37.990
research shows that common light seed


00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:40.710
black holes can grow at extreme rates


00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:42.389
under the right conditions.


00:13:42.399 --> 00:13:44.389
>> Dr. John Regan from the team put it


00:13:44.399 --> 00:13:46.550
perfectly when he said, "Heavy seeds are


00:13:46.560 --> 00:13:48.790
somewhat exotic and may need rare


00:13:48.800 --> 00:13:50.389
conditions to form, but their


00:13:50.399 --> 00:13:52.550
simulations show that garden variety


00:13:52.560 --> 00:13:54.550
stellar mass black holes can grow at


00:13:54.560 --> 00:13:56.949
extreme rates in the early universe."


00:13:56.959 --> 00:13:59.350
>> This has implications beyond just


00:13:59.360 --> 00:14:01.509
understanding the past. The research


00:14:01.519 --> 00:14:03.829
team noted that future gravitational


00:14:03.839 --> 00:14:06.470
wave observations from the LISA mission


00:14:06.480 --> 00:14:09.590
scheduled to launch in 2035 may be able


00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:12.230
to detect the mergers of these tiny


00:14:12.240 --> 00:14:15.509
early rapidly growing baby black holes.


00:14:15.519 --> 00:14:17.750
It's exciting to think we might actually


00:14:17.760 --> 00:14:20.310
observe these processes directly. From


00:14:20.320 --> 00:14:22.710
black holes to exoplanets, let's close


00:14:22.720 --> 00:14:24.949
with our final story about AI hunting


00:14:24.959 --> 00:14:27.829
for new worlds. Anna, we found over


00:14:27.839 --> 00:14:30.389
6,000 exoplanets so far with more than


00:14:30.399 --> 00:14:32.550
half discovered using data from NASA's


00:14:32.560 --> 00:14:34.710
Kepler and test missions, but there's


00:14:34.720 --> 00:14:36.550
still a treasure trove of data waiting


00:14:36.560 --> 00:14:38.230
to be analyzed. And that's where


00:14:38.240 --> 00:14:40.310
artificial intelligence comes in.


00:14:40.320 --> 00:14:42.710
>> I remember hearing about Exomminer back


00:14:42.720 --> 00:14:45.910
in 2021. Is that what this is about?


00:14:45.920 --> 00:14:48.870
>> Exactly. The team at NASA's AS research


00:14:48.880 --> 00:14:51.829
center created exomminer, which used AI


00:14:51.839 --> 00:14:55.189
to validate 370 new exoplanets from


00:14:55.199 --> 00:14:57.350
Kepler data. Now, they've released


00:14:57.360 --> 00:15:00.470
Exomminer Plus+ trained on both Kepler


00:15:00.480 --> 00:15:02.710
and test data, and the results are


00:15:02.720 --> 00:15:03.750
impressive.


00:15:03.760 --> 00:15:05.509
>> What can the new version do?


00:15:05.519 --> 00:15:07.990
>> On its initial run of test data, Exom


00:15:08.000 --> 00:15:11.269
Miner++ identified 7,000 targets as


00:15:11.279 --> 00:15:13.670
exoplanet candidates. These are signals


00:15:13.680 --> 00:15:15.509
that are likely to be planets, but


00:15:15.519 --> 00:15:17.269
require follow-up observations to


00:15:17.279 --> 00:15:19.430
confirm. The software sifts through


00:15:19.440 --> 00:15:22.150
observations of possible transits, those


00:15:22.160 --> 00:15:24.310
tiny dips in starlight when a planet


00:15:24.320 --> 00:15:26.310
passes in front of its host star, and


00:15:26.320 --> 00:15:28.310
predicts which ones are real planets


00:15:28.320 --> 00:15:30.550
versus other phenomena like eclipsing


00:15:30.560 --> 00:15:31.750
binary stars.


00:15:31.760 --> 00:15:34.389
>> And this is all open-source software.


00:15:34.399 --> 00:15:36.710
>> Yes, anyone can download it from GitHub


00:15:36.720 --> 00:15:38.870
and use it to hunt for planets in TESS's


00:15:38.880 --> 00:15:41.110
growing public data archive. Kevin


00:15:41.120 --> 00:15:43.110
Murphy, NASA's chief science data


00:15:43.120 --> 00:15:45.189
officer, emphasized that open-source


00:15:45.199 --> 00:15:47.590
software like Exom Minor accelerates


00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:49.829
scientific discovery. When researchers


00:15:49.839 --> 00:15:52.310
freely share their tools, it lets others


00:15:52.320 --> 00:15:54.310
replicate results and dig deeper into


00:15:54.320 --> 00:15:55.110
the data.


00:15:55.120 --> 00:15:58.310
>> What makes Exomminer Plus+ particularly


00:15:58.320 --> 00:15:59.350
effective?


00:15:59.360 --> 00:16:01.749
>> Miguel Martinho, the co-investigator,


00:16:01.759 --> 00:16:03.749
explains that when you have hundreds of


00:16:03.759 --> 00:16:05.749
thousands of signals like this, it's the


00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:07.670
ideal place to deploy deep learning


00:16:07.680 --> 00:16:10.470
technologies. Despite Kepler and TESS


00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:12.550
operating differently, TESS surveys


00:16:12.560 --> 00:16:14.710
nearly the whole sky looking for planets


00:16:14.720 --> 00:16:17.030
around nearby stars, while Kepler looked


00:16:17.040 --> 00:16:19.350
at a small patch of sky more deeply. The


00:16:19.360 --> 00:16:21.269
two missions produce compatible data


00:16:21.279 --> 00:16:24.069
sets. This allows Exomminer Plus+ to


00:16:24.079 --> 00:16:25.990
train on both and deliver strong


00:16:26.000 --> 00:16:27.030
results.


00:16:27.040 --> 00:16:29.509
>> Project lead Jameid again said it


00:16:29.519 --> 00:16:32.069
perfectly. With not many resources, they


00:16:32.079 --> 00:16:34.389
can make a lot of returns. What's next


00:16:34.399 --> 00:16:36.550
for the program? The team is working on


00:16:36.560 --> 00:16:38.710
giving the model the ability to identify


00:16:38.720 --> 00:16:41.350
transit signals themselves from raw data


00:16:41.360 --> 00:16:42.949
rather than just evaluating


00:16:42.959 --> 00:16:45.269
pre-identified candidates. And looking


00:16:45.279 --> 00:16:47.910
ahead, NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space


00:16:47.920 --> 00:16:50.069
Telescope will capture tens of thousands


00:16:50.079 --> 00:16:52.470
of exoplanet transits starting in a few


00:16:52.480 --> 00:16:54.629
years. And all that data will be freely


00:16:54.639 --> 00:16:56.870
available, too. The advances made with


00:16:56.880 --> 00:16:58.949
Exomminer could help hunt for planets in


00:16:58.959 --> 00:17:00.470
Roman data as well.


00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:02.949
>> Exoplanet scientist John Jenkins summed


00:17:02.959 --> 00:17:05.350
it up beautifully. Open source science


00:17:05.360 --> 00:17:07.429
and open-source software are why the


00:17:07.439 --> 00:17:09.750
exoplanet field is advancing as quickly


00:17:09.760 --> 00:17:12.150
as it is. It's a great reminder of how


00:17:12.160 --> 00:17:14.870
collaboration and shared resources drive


00:17:14.880 --> 00:17:15.829
discovery.


00:17:15.839 --> 00:17:18.069
>> And that's all we have time for today.


00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:20.230
What a day of space news, Anna. From


00:17:20.240 --> 00:17:22.870
legacy keepsakes heading to the moon to


00:17:22.880 --> 00:17:25.110
urgent warnings about orbital debris to


00:17:25.120 --> 00:17:27.909
AI discovering thousands of new worlds


00:17:27.919 --> 00:17:30.470
>> and everything in between. New insights


00:17:30.480 --> 00:17:32.950
about Earth's water, the rapid growth of


00:17:32.960 --> 00:17:35.190
super massive black holes, and Blue


00:17:35.200 --> 00:17:37.430
Origin's expanding launch manifest.


00:17:37.440 --> 00:17:39.270
Space exploration continues to


00:17:39.280 --> 00:17:41.350
accelerate on multiple fronts.


00:17:41.360 --> 00:17:42.789
>> That's it for today's episode of


00:17:42.799 --> 00:17:44.710
Astronomy Daily. Thanks for joining us,


00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:46.789
and we'll see you tomorrow. Keep looking


00:17:46.799 --> 00:17:47.510
up.


00:17:47.520 --> 00:17:51.830
>> Clear skies, everyone. Astronomy day.


00:17:51.840 --> 00:18:00.070
The stories be told.


00:18:00.080 --> 00:18:03.799
Stories told.