Where Are Markets Going From Here?

WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.480 --> 00:00:06.120 Good morning, everybody. It's that time once again, Sunday morning, eight 2 00:00:06.160 --> 00:00:10.000 o'clock. Right here, seven ninety K and ST We're gonna bring you the 3 00:00:10.039 --> 00:00:12.919 Money Batter Show. We're all here today. We're gonna bring you our insight 4 00:00:13.400 --> 00:00:18.399 to what's going on. The markets have rallied nicely, Okay, very nicely. 5 00:00:19.079 --> 00:00:22.600 S and P's up five point three percent already for this month. Is 6 00:00:22.600 --> 00:00:29.800 it going to continue or not? We will discuss that. When we discussed 7 00:00:29.960 --> 00:00:32.280 about a week and a half or two weeks ago, I guess it was 8 00:00:32.320 --> 00:00:35.759 at the end of October that show, and we discussed the fact that we 9 00:00:35.840 --> 00:00:38.759 thought a bottom would be put in. I did not expect us to rally 10 00:00:38.799 --> 00:00:42.719 this much this quickly, but I'll take it. Remember, we still had 11 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:47.000 about three percent four percent two uh the end of October. That pushed us 12 00:00:47.079 --> 00:00:51.320 up, so we're up pretty nicely from that. That last two weeks ago 13 00:00:51.880 --> 00:00:57.520 on the show, we did put out AH to our clients a A A 14 00:00:57.520 --> 00:01:00.640 A kind of like a insight to what we were looking for, and we 15 00:01:00.759 --> 00:01:04.519 discussed the fact that we thought between then and the end of the year we 16 00:01:04.519 --> 00:01:10.599 could have a little rally and that the reward was greater than the risk and 17 00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:14.920 that if we rallied started up to about forty five hundred or more than we 18 00:01:14.920 --> 00:01:18.640 would think and analyze and see if the risk was greater than the reward and 19 00:01:18.680 --> 00:01:22.560 pulled back again. What we did at that time is we took off some 20 00:01:22.640 --> 00:01:30.439 of our mitigating risk instruments with the stuff that we are the inverse funds people 21 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:33.280 that were under investor. We'd kind of put some money back to work. 22 00:01:33.760 --> 00:01:36.439 But we didn't jump in with both feet. We didn't get, oh, 23 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:38.719 we're gonna go crazy here and we're gonna put it all back in and get 24 00:01:38.719 --> 00:01:42.560 everyone to the high allocation. No. What we did was, it's gonna 25 00:01:42.599 --> 00:01:49.799 stay cautious here. And if you listen to our chairman Powell of the Federal 26 00:01:49.799 --> 00:01:53.799 Reserve, he told you this week that he did not think that they have 27 00:01:53.879 --> 00:01:57.400 done a good enough job fighting against inflation. So what he's doing is setting 28 00:01:57.480 --> 00:02:01.879 us up to basically realize if things continue down that world, they're going to 29 00:02:01.959 --> 00:02:07.040 raise rates again, and we don't think that's good for the market. But 30 00:02:07.079 --> 00:02:10.080 that's one of the reasons the market really rallied and then fell off on Thursday 31 00:02:10.199 --> 00:02:16.400 and then came back on Friday. Because there's money on the sidelines. They 32 00:02:16.439 --> 00:02:21.680 want to see what's happening. But I think it's the same money going in 33 00:02:21.719 --> 00:02:23.599 and out. I don't see a lot of new money coming in. I 34 00:02:23.639 --> 00:02:29.879 see shorts getting covered. I see opportunities when we do fall back down. 35 00:02:29.919 --> 00:02:34.439 But I do think we can trend higher because there is cash and then that 36 00:02:34.560 --> 00:02:38.719 old fear of missing out, and so we'll see where we go from there. 37 00:02:38.639 --> 00:02:43.639 This is the Moneymoutter Show. It is brought to you by Greenberg Financial 38 00:02:43.680 --> 00:02:47.120 Group. Greenberg Financial Group is both a registered investment advisory and a broken dealer 39 00:02:47.639 --> 00:02:51.919 registered with the SEC. Members of Fitroom, members of CIPIK. On the 40 00:02:52.039 --> 00:02:55.879 show, we talk about a lot of different things. We have different strategies, 41 00:02:57.159 --> 00:03:02.000 different opinions. Doesn't matter what it is. There is risk in everything 42 00:03:02.080 --> 00:03:06.599 we do, say, or invest in, and you need to know that. 43 00:03:06.680 --> 00:03:09.599 You need to understand your risk prior to investing, and you need to 44 00:03:09.680 --> 00:03:14.400 do it not only when the markets are going on saying I can handle this. 45 00:03:14.479 --> 00:03:15.800 I love risk, I love risk, I love risk, and then 46 00:03:15.800 --> 00:03:20.400 the markets go down. I'm too old for this. I can't handle this. 47 00:03:21.240 --> 00:03:24.919 You set your allocations within a risk reward strategy. So what am I 48 00:03:24.960 --> 00:03:29.479 saying? Say, say you'd like to be sixty forty. Okay, that's 49 00:03:29.520 --> 00:03:32.560 the kind of the norm. Sixty percent towards risk, which is equity forty 50 00:03:32.599 --> 00:03:39.759 percent, so towards income producing vehicles. And when you do that, your 51 00:03:39.800 --> 00:03:45.199 sixty could be forty to sixty or sixty to seventy. So really what you're 52 00:03:45.199 --> 00:03:50.120 looking at is, depending on where the markets are, will mitigate risk down 53 00:03:50.159 --> 00:03:54.240 about forty percent or increase it to seventy percent, maybe sometimes of its rally 54 00:03:54.240 --> 00:03:58.439 in seventy five, but not much more than that. On a balance side 55 00:03:58.479 --> 00:04:02.439 portfolio conservative growth, maybe we get to eighty if things really got bad, 56 00:04:03.240 --> 00:04:08.360 But it's a sliding scale. And so right now, if I was going 57 00:04:08.439 --> 00:04:12.000 to be sixty forty, I would be fifty percent. That's what I'd be 58 00:04:12.039 --> 00:04:16.279 looking for, probably for most most balanced conservative accounts. Balance accounts might be 59 00:04:16.319 --> 00:04:19.879 a little less, might be forty, depending on their age and where they're 60 00:04:19.879 --> 00:04:25.439 at right now. But if the markets fell next year, like I think 61 00:04:25.480 --> 00:04:29.439 they can, I hope not. I don't like when the markets go down, 62 00:04:29.519 --> 00:04:33.360 believe me. But if they do fall, you know, and give 63 00:04:33.399 --> 00:04:39.120 us an opportunity where we can say, hey, we really like the evaluations, 64 00:04:40.079 --> 00:04:44.079 we really like the prices of some of these stocks, we really think 65 00:04:44.120 --> 00:04:46.439 the risk is really minimal and the reward is getting greater. And then we 66 00:04:46.480 --> 00:04:51.439 will increase our exposure to risk. We'll take off the stuff that we were 67 00:04:51.480 --> 00:04:56.879 mitigating risk. We'll we'll go along well dollar costs to average in. We'll 68 00:04:56.959 --> 00:05:00.759 use indexes, we'll use two times the indexes, and we'll let it rally 69 00:05:00.800 --> 00:05:04.560 and see where it goes. But remember those times come with a lot of 70 00:05:04.600 --> 00:05:09.199 fear. When tomorrow, when the best time of buying the markets is when 71 00:05:09.240 --> 00:05:15.040 everyone else is scared. It's been proven over and over again. And then 72 00:05:15.079 --> 00:05:17.800 when everyone gets greedy, that's the time to get out. And I don't 73 00:05:17.800 --> 00:05:21.480 mean sell everything and go to cash. I'm talking about reduce your exposure. 74 00:05:21.759 --> 00:05:27.000 Because the markets go up, your your equity portion, your your risk portion 75 00:05:27.160 --> 00:05:30.920 is naturally going to get up. So even if you're fifty percent right now 76 00:05:30.199 --> 00:05:34.439 and the markets rally ten percent, you still go up five percent. You 77 00:05:34.480 --> 00:05:40.120 should be at fifty five fifty six percent invested. If you pull that back 78 00:05:40.160 --> 00:05:44.120 off the table and go back to fifty, then you then you just took 79 00:05:44.560 --> 00:05:47.279 money off the table when the markets were higher. You're sold high, but 80 00:05:47.360 --> 00:05:50.959 you still got fifty percent. If it came down after that, and now 81 00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:55.040 you're not fifty, but you're forty five, you have to add fifty percent 82 00:05:55.079 --> 00:05:59.399 to that side of the allocation, and now you're buying low again. So 83 00:05:59.480 --> 00:06:01.759 if you just remember what your allocations are on how you do it and you 84 00:06:02.000 --> 00:06:06.519 and you rebalance, that will keep you from buying high and selling low. 85 00:06:06.600 --> 00:06:12.120 You want to buy low, sell high in at least the idea of it 86 00:06:12.680 --> 00:06:18.439 from when you where your portfolio is at a stagnant time. That's how you 87 00:06:18.680 --> 00:06:23.879 kind of just can deal with this whole thing. Now, if the markets 88 00:06:23.920 --> 00:06:26.199 really fail, you want to get more aggressive. You don't want to be 89 00:06:26.199 --> 00:06:28.360 fifty, you want to be sixty. You add to it. So if 90 00:06:28.399 --> 00:06:30.519 you're forty five, you're not adding five percent, you would add fifteen percent. 91 00:06:30.879 --> 00:06:34.720 If the markets go up and it continues to go up, and you 92 00:06:34.879 --> 00:06:38.560 and you're getting courtiers and nervous and you don't want to be fifty and you 93 00:06:38.560 --> 00:06:40.920 want to be forty five. And now you're at fifty five, you don't 94 00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:45.720 sell five percent, you bring it down to forty five percent. And it's 95 00:06:45.720 --> 00:06:49.360 not easy. I don't know what's worse. People get all nervous when they 96 00:06:49.360 --> 00:06:54.439 sell something and the stock keeps going higher or the market keeps going higher, 97 00:06:54.920 --> 00:07:00.120 and they feel like they left that missed out fomo foma, feel of missing 98 00:07:00.160 --> 00:07:04.240 out. No, I mean fomo fear of missing out foma. And the 99 00:07:05.279 --> 00:07:17.439 idea behind that is all in your brain because really you think about how you 100 00:07:17.519 --> 00:07:23.759 feel when the markets go down. All you do is read a bad bad 101 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:29.759 news and they keep going down. You get very scared and nervous. So 102 00:07:29.800 --> 00:07:31.040 on the other side, at least you can sit back and say, okay, 103 00:07:31.040 --> 00:07:34.319 and I'm not making as much, am I making that in my allocation 104 00:07:34.439 --> 00:07:40.000 that I'm actually in the risk And the answer is usually yes. But if 105 00:07:40.000 --> 00:07:43.959 you're only forty or fifty or sixty percent invested, you're not going to make 106 00:07:44.000 --> 00:07:46.519 whatever the you know, the H and I don't really just look at the 107 00:07:46.600 --> 00:07:50.959 SMP anymore, even though it's getting better. But just to give you an 108 00:07:50.959 --> 00:07:57.959 idea, the equal weighted SMP this week was down a half a percent and 109 00:07:58.000 --> 00:08:03.680 the SMP was up one point three because US the technology stocks arising same thing 110 00:08:03.720 --> 00:08:09.560 on the year. They equal weighted is down two percent less than the S 111 00:08:09.600 --> 00:08:13.079 and P five hundred s and P is up five point three and the equal 112 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:18.160 weighted S and P is only up three point seven and on the but now 113 00:08:18.199 --> 00:08:22.959 you look at the year S and P says it's up fifteen percent. Equal 114 00:08:22.000 --> 00:08:26.639 weighted is still down point three percent. And that's where most people's portfolios are. 115 00:08:28.079 --> 00:08:33.200 Okay, unless you're just in the spy and that's where all your money 116 00:08:33.240 --> 00:08:37.360 is. But you're usually balanced, and you're usually spread around and you're allocated 117 00:08:37.360 --> 00:08:46.440 because that's the correct way to reduce risk of concentration. All right, So 118 00:08:46.120 --> 00:08:54.120 where are we now. We've moved up over forty four hundred by back and 119 00:08:54.159 --> 00:08:58.480 forth a little bit. Unless he's fed, people come out and start talking 120 00:08:58.519 --> 00:09:01.919 about how they got to raise rates and they got to be aggressive. I 121 00:09:01.960 --> 00:09:07.080 say, we have back and forth motion to forty five hundred. We break 122 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:11.039 there. We got forty five fifty, forty six hundred. At that time, 123 00:09:11.120 --> 00:09:13.080 I would be saying, yeah, let's take some money off the table. 124 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:18.039 It's hard for me to say that we're going to go way down into 125 00:09:18.120 --> 00:09:22.600 this timeframe, but we could come back down to forty two seventy five, 126 00:09:22.720 --> 00:09:28.000 forty three hundred, forty two fifty in that area, and that's not bad. 127 00:09:28.120 --> 00:09:31.480 I mean, if you think about it, we were just almost there. 128 00:09:31.519 --> 00:09:35.759 The other day we got down to about forty three, yeah, forty 129 00:09:35.840 --> 00:09:41.720 or something like that, and now today we're over forty four hundred. So 130 00:09:41.480 --> 00:09:46.240 those things do happen. They will happen at times. If you don't like 131 00:09:46.320 --> 00:09:52.360 doing any of it, then get somebody. And this is just the money 132 00:09:52.399 --> 00:09:56.519 management side. This is the investment side, which is really where most people 133 00:09:56.559 --> 00:09:58.840 care about at the end. But this all fits in with the planet. 134 00:10:00.000 --> 00:10:03.480 This doesn't arise. You got the plan. You got you you sit down 135 00:10:05.440 --> 00:10:07.200 and you put the plan together, and you look at your assets and say 136 00:10:07.399 --> 00:10:13.559 from these assets, what kind of cash flow do I need? And then 137 00:10:13.639 --> 00:10:18.080 after you get your cash flow, the rest can go into appreciation and from 138 00:10:18.080 --> 00:10:24.679 that appreciation, how much risk do you want to take? And it gets 139 00:10:24.679 --> 00:10:28.840 broken down that way. It's pretty simple as you go through the process to 140 00:10:30.039 --> 00:10:35.840 understand through your risk tolerance and your portfolio and your needs. How a portfolio 141 00:10:35.879 --> 00:10:39.960 gets put together. But it can only be put together if you go and 142 00:10:39.039 --> 00:10:43.639 I'm going backwards now to the beginning of the plan. Are you retired or 143 00:10:43.639 --> 00:10:48.120 you're not retired? Are you taking Social Security or not? How much is 144 00:10:48.159 --> 00:10:52.320 your medicare? Whenever do you plan or taking sold security, Are you getting 145 00:10:52.320 --> 00:10:56.200 a lumpsum from your from from your company or you're going to get a pension. 146 00:10:58.080 --> 00:11:01.399 What are you living on now? What's your budget now? And then 147 00:11:01.399 --> 00:11:05.200 you go through the whole system, and then you get a kind of a 148 00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:11.679 what's called a Monte Carlo projection, which is a percentage of whether or not 149 00:11:11.840 --> 00:11:16.879 your plan's going to work. If you're down in the forty to fifty sixty 150 00:11:16.960 --> 00:11:18.759 range, you probably said, well, I got to change some stuff. 151 00:11:18.759 --> 00:11:22.399 You had to get that back up into the eighty ninety percent range of being 152 00:11:24.240 --> 00:11:28.480 a plan that works, and then once you get that, you start going 153 00:11:28.519 --> 00:11:35.480 forward. It's amazing, amazing to me how many people say they want a 154 00:11:35.519 --> 00:11:43.120 plan versus how many people actually have a plan. And I know that because 155 00:11:43.120 --> 00:11:46.320 people keep coming in and saying, I don't have a plan. I don't 156 00:11:46.320 --> 00:11:48.600 have a financial plan, i'll have a retirement plan, I don't have a 157 00:11:48.639 --> 00:11:50.960 cash flow plan. I don't have a plan of what I'm going to do 158 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:56.120 with my estate. I don't have any of this. And they got three 159 00:11:56.159 --> 00:12:01.960 million plus dollars and they got to do something. Because you work all your 160 00:12:01.039 --> 00:12:05.519 life and your job is to take care of your family, take care of 161 00:12:05.600 --> 00:12:09.840 the things, have dreams, put that money away, But you're really not 162 00:12:09.039 --> 00:12:15.279 planning. Anybody that's over forty years old plus should be planning. Obviously, 163 00:12:15.320 --> 00:12:20.639 the sooner you can plan, the better. Sooner you can plan, the 164 00:12:20.679 --> 00:12:24.360 better. But if you got within ten years of retirement, you better start 165 00:12:24.360 --> 00:12:28.360 planning and planning fast and make sure you're going to be in a good position. 166 00:12:28.759 --> 00:12:31.600 You got five years, it's even there now. If you're retired. 167 00:12:31.279 --> 00:12:35.960 A lot of people wait til I'm retiring in two months or three months or 168 00:12:35.960 --> 00:12:41.240 a year. That's good because now you're gonna put together the retirement plan and 169 00:12:41.279 --> 00:12:45.519 you cash a plan and then implement it. But you don't have time to 170 00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:50.200 correct it if you only have a year or two left. But there are 171 00:12:50.240 --> 00:12:52.919 still things you can do. You can start looking at one. You should 172 00:12:52.960 --> 00:12:58.759 take social Security, well, how much money you can make away if you're 173 00:12:58.759 --> 00:13:03.480 still getting medicare, what bracket you're going to be in. Then these are 174 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:07.519 all things that have come into play when we sit down and talk to you, 175 00:13:07.600 --> 00:13:13.519 and it's so important, so important, and you know I'll be the 176 00:13:13.559 --> 00:13:18.639 first one to tell you. Up to about twenty nineteen, every plan or 177 00:13:18.679 --> 00:13:22.000 any financial plan I kind of looked at was just about selling life insurance. 178 00:13:22.799 --> 00:13:26.759 Now, obviously everyone needs some type of insurance depending on the situation you are, 179 00:13:26.240 --> 00:13:31.200 but not everybody needs to buy life insurance. And you have to reevaluate 180 00:13:31.519 --> 00:13:37.000 the life insurance that you're in. What kind of plan you and what kind 181 00:13:37.000 --> 00:13:41.559 of life insurance? Is it something you got to keep putting premium? Sure, 182 00:13:41.600 --> 00:13:43.519 what's the purpose of that. A lot of people want to keep it 183 00:13:43.519 --> 00:13:46.120 because that's what their legacy is, that's what they want to pass on. 184 00:13:48.559 --> 00:13:50.080 But if they're in a term and it's going higher and higher, then you 185 00:13:50.120 --> 00:13:54.480 know, don't you obviously want to try to outlive that. Then you got 186 00:13:54.480 --> 00:13:58.279 the whole life. Should you take some money out? Should you be getting 187 00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:01.360 some tax free money off that? How much to build up to the universal 188 00:14:01.440 --> 00:14:05.559 life? There's a lot of different things that are at play. And then 189 00:14:07.000 --> 00:14:09.399 people come and they say, oh, wow, I don't want to stop 190 00:14:09.440 --> 00:14:13.399 spending this money, but I see what you're saying. You know, when 191 00:14:13.399 --> 00:14:16.159 I'm seventy five to eighty, I probably won't be able to have this much 192 00:14:16.200 --> 00:14:18.840 money coming to me anymore, and I'm gonna have a problem. Well, 193 00:14:18.879 --> 00:14:24.039 what's your next what's the next step of that happens a lot of people have 194 00:14:24.120 --> 00:14:26.200 the houses paid off. They go, if that comes down to that, 195 00:14:26.639 --> 00:14:30.639 I'll look to do a reverse mortgage. You all sell my house, and 196 00:14:30.679 --> 00:14:35.240 then that'll take me another ten years or so. So there are plans. 197 00:14:35.720 --> 00:14:37.639 You don't have to like always have to want to get there, but you 198 00:14:37.720 --> 00:14:43.360 have to have that emergency plan you really do. And then if you're just 199 00:14:43.440 --> 00:14:48.360 living, going and all, and you got to think about your health. 200 00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.799 Where's your health? If you're healthy, you try to get maybe you look 201 00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:56.799 to get some long term care. There's all different products that are out there 202 00:14:56.639 --> 00:15:01.320 that meet your needs if you actually sit down and go over everything, and 203 00:15:01.360 --> 00:15:07.080 it seems a lot detailed and a lot of things that are involved, but 204 00:15:07.759 --> 00:15:11.080 that does change as you go through it. And I hear more and more 205 00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:16.240 people coming and thanking us and telling us, wow, I didn't know. 206 00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:18.799 I really need to plan. I heard you were giving it away. I 207 00:15:18.840 --> 00:15:20.799 heard you were doing this. I hear you on the radio. I think 208 00:15:20.799 --> 00:15:24.399 I'm going to go in and talk to him, and you know, and 209 00:15:24.440 --> 00:15:28.960 then to come in and talk and we build a relationship. And a lot 210 00:15:28.960 --> 00:15:37.240 of people want to do business with us. Not everybody, but most and 211 00:15:37.240 --> 00:15:39.600 they like our office. They like our people. They like our the way 212 00:15:39.639 --> 00:15:43.279 we do things, our team approach is so different and know a lot of 213 00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:46.440 people. We're on a team. We're a four man team. I'm talking 214 00:15:46.440 --> 00:15:52.360 about the whole company is a team. We work as a team, from 215 00:15:52.440 --> 00:15:58.240 the from our assistance all the way up to us that manage money. It's 216 00:15:58.279 --> 00:16:02.000 a process and we all work as a team. We're all pulling in the 217 00:16:02.080 --> 00:16:04.320 right direct, same direction. We're all rowing that boat in the same direction. 218 00:16:07.840 --> 00:16:14.519 People like that. It's not that we're super different than anyone else, 219 00:16:14.559 --> 00:16:18.840 but we have things that we do that are different. The team approached as 220 00:16:18.879 --> 00:16:26.240 a firm, the approach that we take from the financial plan all the way 221 00:16:26.240 --> 00:16:30.720 to the money management, the individual portfolios tailored just for them and their needs. 222 00:16:32.440 --> 00:16:36.559 Then when we're managing the money, the mitigating risk, the risk reward 223 00:16:36.639 --> 00:16:42.759 strategy, the models are all ours, okay, using ETF and and and 224 00:16:42.759 --> 00:16:47.639 and and all and individual bonds, and the stock picks are ours, the 225 00:16:47.679 --> 00:16:52.919 allocations are ours. We keep it here. We go ahead and discuss and 226 00:16:52.080 --> 00:16:56.240 we make the decisions. We pull the trigger, and that's what our experience 227 00:16:56.279 --> 00:17:00.960 allows us to do. So many people always say, oh, the market's 228 00:17:00.960 --> 00:17:04.440 going down, there isn't that stress Yeah, it stresses me out, but 229 00:17:04.519 --> 00:17:11.559 they also know that I'm going to be the one that's going to pull the 230 00:17:11.559 --> 00:17:17.519 trigger and when things turn, they're going to be happy. The only thing 231 00:17:17.519 --> 00:17:21.359 that stresses me out is what goes on in the world, what goes on 232 00:17:21.440 --> 00:17:25.319 in our government. The idea of being able to step up and buy quality 233 00:17:25.319 --> 00:17:30.799 stuff at a lower price. That excites me the same thing I'm coming out 234 00:17:30.440 --> 00:17:34.279 reducing my risk. I don't look at what the total returns on. Everyone's 235 00:17:34.319 --> 00:17:38.519 returns a little different during the year because they come in at different times, 236 00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:48.920 they're involved in different in different allocations. They take money out, they put 237 00:17:48.960 --> 00:17:53.119 money in. Everybody's returns are a little bit different until they're with us for 238 00:17:53.160 --> 00:17:57.240 a couple of years and then everything's moving in the same direction. So those 239 00:17:57.240 --> 00:18:03.200 are things to think about. See here we are, we still got a 240 00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:04.960 war going on in the Middle East. We still have a war going on 241 00:18:06.039 --> 00:18:11.599 in Ukraine. We have people that are trying to become president that you know, 242 00:18:11.720 --> 00:18:18.240 we all scratch our heads at. We have the bidens that obviously we'll 243 00:18:18.240 --> 00:18:21.720 never get in trouble, just like the Clintons. I don't know how they 244 00:18:21.839 --> 00:18:25.839 do it, but they sure as are good at it. You know, 245 00:18:25.880 --> 00:18:30.559 we got to use election next year. And everyone looks at each other and 246 00:18:30.640 --> 00:18:36.799 says, I can't believe we don't have any candidates. And then everyone starts 247 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:40.960 saying, well, you know what. More and more people I speak to 248 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:44.680 that say they hated Trump. Guess what, just starting to say, I 249 00:18:44.680 --> 00:18:48.680 don't care if I like them, but I'm voting for them. I can't 250 00:18:48.680 --> 00:18:52.599 stand what's going on with inflation. I can't stand what's going on and economically 251 00:18:52.640 --> 00:18:56.640 in the country. I can't stand the foreign policies that we're doing on how 252 00:18:56.640 --> 00:18:59.519 we're back in the wars. I thought Trump was the one that was going 253 00:18:59.559 --> 00:19:03.119 to get us in the war. How the heck are we in wars with 254 00:19:03.319 --> 00:19:08.839 Biden and we have tensions with China and Iran again when we're giving Iran everything? 255 00:19:10.279 --> 00:19:15.039 How are we bombing over in Syria again because they're coming after our installations 256 00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:22.039 back by Iran. But meanwhile everything we were choking off Iran and as soon 257 00:19:22.079 --> 00:19:25.119 as we went back it hasn't even been that long, has it been a 258 00:19:25.240 --> 00:19:30.079 year? And now we got problems all over the Middle East again. Well, 259 00:19:30.119 --> 00:19:34.200 I think it's time that we just let Israel do their thing and take 260 00:19:34.240 --> 00:19:38.160 care of what we have to do. You know, I'm appalled by all 261 00:19:38.200 --> 00:19:47.519 these universities having their kids out there with these pro Hamas marches. And it's 262 00:19:47.559 --> 00:19:49.880 not because I'm old, and it's not because I'm Jewish. It's just that 263 00:19:49.920 --> 00:19:59.799 it's unbelievably perplexing to me that we send these kids to these Ivy League schools 264 00:20:00.240 --> 00:20:04.440 who are supposed to be so smart and so rational and so understanding, and 265 00:20:04.519 --> 00:20:15.160 everybody's involved and cannot separate terrorists from Palestinians and Jews. How they want to 266 00:20:15.200 --> 00:20:21.000 come back after the Jewish population in Israel where they were attacked. It's unbelievable. 267 00:20:22.720 --> 00:20:29.920 How they play the victim. And they don't even know or understand the 268 00:20:29.960 --> 00:20:34.799 Holocaust. They don't understand what it would be like that every single moment of 269 00:20:34.839 --> 00:20:38.799 the day you're worried about something getting blown up or missile coming to you, 270 00:20:38.920 --> 00:20:45.400 somebody getting attacked. Sure, we think about terrorism in the United States, 271 00:20:47.000 --> 00:20:48.279 but you don't go out the door thinking, oh, you might not come 272 00:20:48.319 --> 00:20:56.000 home. Can you imagine living in our country surrounded by a whole bunch of 273 00:20:56.039 --> 00:21:02.880 other countries that one is all dead Canada, Mexico and stick a few other 274 00:21:02.920 --> 00:21:07.039 continents with there, and or we have to worry about us being bombed all 275 00:21:07.079 --> 00:21:14.559 the time, or coming in and just rape, pillaging and killing our citizens 276 00:21:15.319 --> 00:21:23.359 while we let them come in and work in our countries. There's not one 277 00:21:23.400 --> 00:21:29.359 of these students that are go ahead and protesting, even thinking about that. 278 00:21:30.720 --> 00:21:33.079 I'd love to go ahead and find out where they live and start bombing their 279 00:21:33.079 --> 00:21:37.680 house. That with real bombs, of course, but just talking about how 280 00:21:37.720 --> 00:21:41.480 we don't want them there, get off our block, you don't need to 281 00:21:41.480 --> 00:21:48.119 be here. You should all be dead. Could you imagine that? And 282 00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:53.119 then them being told you can't fight back. It reminds me of the in 283 00:21:53.240 --> 00:22:02.319 Chicago when the husband and wife stood outside with the with their the machine guns 284 00:22:03.200 --> 00:22:06.720 when people are banging on their their fences and trying to come in, and 285 00:22:06.720 --> 00:22:11.559 they were defending their home and they got in trouble. They got in trouble. 286 00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:15.000 So you're supposed to let them come into your home, kill you white, 287 00:22:15.240 --> 00:22:18.480 and do whatever they want to your wife and your kids, and you 288 00:22:18.519 --> 00:22:22.319 can't stand in front and make them go down the street. Think about it. 289 00:22:22.440 --> 00:22:25.920 When you nail it down to that, that's what it is the thing 290 00:22:26.000 --> 00:22:30.400 that scares me the most is who the ones that control government? Who's the 291 00:22:30.599 --> 00:22:34.920 every president we've had lately all comes from what one of the Ivy League schools. 292 00:22:36.720 --> 00:22:42.920 So this is the ideology that we have that's permeating these students that they 293 00:22:42.960 --> 00:22:49.359 can't separate loving America, supporting Israel, support and being able to protect yourself. 294 00:22:49.720 --> 00:22:55.359 What kind of president whoever that is in that group is going to be 295 00:22:55.519 --> 00:23:02.039 like when they get older. The influence of these leftists radicals that are going 296 00:23:02.079 --> 00:23:06.039 to school, what is their influence going to be down the road? And 297 00:23:06.119 --> 00:23:10.720 why are we only picking people that are basically coming up through the ranks, 298 00:23:10.720 --> 00:23:12.200 through the parents, through the money, through everything else. And this is 299 00:23:12.240 --> 00:23:18.279 what they're teaching. And I probably would bet that probably seventy percent of their 300 00:23:18.319 --> 00:23:22.160 parents look at them and go, I don't understand. They'll grow out of 301 00:23:22.160 --> 00:23:27.039 this because I promise you their parents don't want to pay more taxes. Their 302 00:23:27.119 --> 00:23:30.400 parents are on the power side. Their parents are the ones that control a 303 00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:33.240 lot of the stuff. But if these are the people that are coming up 304 00:23:33.279 --> 00:23:38.200 to be our CEOs, our government officials, the presidents of our country, 305 00:23:38.720 --> 00:23:47.119 we are in a lot of trouble because where does this ideology stop? They 306 00:23:47.240 --> 00:23:56.319 cannot even understand the difference between a terrorist and a Palestinian. To get behind 307 00:23:56.359 --> 00:24:02.000 Hamas is the most disgusting thing I've ever saw, and they don't even want 308 00:24:02.000 --> 00:24:07.400 to explain that it's different. So until we can control what we can control 309 00:24:07.960 --> 00:24:12.240 these schools, I have to tell you, I hope they stop getting money. 310 00:24:12.519 --> 00:24:15.400 I hope they start having to do the right things. And the only 311 00:24:15.400 --> 00:24:21.640 the only thing that they understand, especially these is money power, and we 312 00:24:21.720 --> 00:24:22.920 got to take it back. We'll be back. This is the Money Batter 313 00:24:22.960 --> 00:24:26.799 Show. Thank you for listening and being part of what we believe in. 314 00:24:33.880 --> 00:24:37.359 Welcome back to everybody to the Money Matter Show. We do appreciate the fact 315 00:24:37.359 --> 00:24:42.319 that you listen, and remember if you don't hear us, we want to 316 00:24:42.359 --> 00:24:45.599 go back and miss an episode or something or want to learn from things. 317 00:24:47.160 --> 00:24:52.920 All our episodes are on our website on a podcast. You can listen anytime, 318 00:24:52.279 --> 00:24:59.759 anyplace, anywhere. Because remember we also do TV also now on Sunday 319 00:24:59.799 --> 00:25:06.839 night at ten thirty after the News and KBOA which is NBC. We also 320 00:25:07.440 --> 00:25:10.799 then take some of those shows and we do three on Saturday, one six 321 00:25:10.960 --> 00:25:14.079 thirty in the morning, one at twelve and one at twelve thirty. The 322 00:25:14.119 --> 00:25:18.079 thirty minute segments, they're a little different. I do it with Sarah Peterson 323 00:25:18.759 --> 00:25:22.880 who's a host of that show, and a little bit more educational. And 324 00:25:22.920 --> 00:25:26.000 then of course we do a two hour show on Sundays that kind of give 325 00:25:26.079 --> 00:25:30.759 you an insight to who we are, what we're thinking, what our strategies 326 00:25:30.799 --> 00:25:38.480 are, and a little in more insight and depth to how we manage money. 327 00:25:38.599 --> 00:25:45.279 Yep, there we go, and we have a big workshop coming up. 328 00:25:45.319 --> 00:25:48.440 What is it December thirteenth. December thirteenth is a Federal retirement workshops so 329 00:25:48.559 --> 00:25:53.000 se geared towards FEDS getting ready to retire the civilian you had activeduty before. 330 00:25:53.039 --> 00:25:59.359 Anybody that is in the federal retirement or federal government working suggests you come and 331 00:25:59.440 --> 00:26:03.400 learn. A guy flying in from Louisiana, he has been flying all around 332 00:26:03.400 --> 00:26:07.960 the country presenting this doing the seminar working with FEDS getting ready to retire for 333 00:26:08.160 --> 00:26:12.359 twenty plus years now presented in front of thousands people, is very knowledgeable on 334 00:26:12.839 --> 00:26:17.039 the whole ins and outs of the federal retirement system. Because if you are 335 00:26:17.039 --> 00:26:21.279 a federal employee, you do know that it's a very unique system with your 336 00:26:21.319 --> 00:26:23.559 pension, with the FEGLEY, with the FVHB, with your maybe life long 337 00:26:23.640 --> 00:26:27.599 term care, the TSP, all that stuff we talk about during this retirement 338 00:26:29.000 --> 00:26:32.960 seminar. So it's free to come. Your department may give you a pay 339 00:26:33.079 --> 00:26:36.119 day off if you have that form s F one eighty two, so if 340 00:26:36.160 --> 00:26:38.240 you do, you could just get that sign and get paid day off. 341 00:26:38.279 --> 00:26:41.759 You'll have lunch. It's all day on I. It's a Wednesday, December 342 00:26:41.759 --> 00:26:48.640 thirteenth, free seminar, free lunch, free financial plan afterwards, and absolutely 343 00:26:48.640 --> 00:26:52.480 no obligation. Why would you not do this? We're just there to help 344 00:26:52.799 --> 00:26:55.359 teach you what's going on with your federal retirement coming up. If you're a 345 00:26:55.359 --> 00:27:00.200 federal employee who's within what five years of retirement, if you wouldn't take advantage 346 00:27:00.119 --> 00:27:03.000 years, yeah, this is this is an opportunity that doesn't come around very 347 00:27:03.039 --> 00:27:07.519 often and that you don't that you wouldn't take advantage of it is a real 348 00:27:07.559 --> 00:27:10.920 mistake in my opinion. Yeah, a spotsor filling up too, So give 349 00:27:11.000 --> 00:27:12.279 us a call. You can call us at five two zero five four four 350 00:27:12.319 --> 00:27:15.880 four nine zero nine, or just go on our website Greenberg Financial dot com 351 00:27:15.920 --> 00:27:19.759 and there's a link to the event bright page to sign up and register for 352 00:27:19.799 --> 00:27:22.039 it. Well, do you talk about a little bit in the monologue, 353 00:27:22.039 --> 00:27:26.160 But probably the big news this week was the continuation of the rally that took 354 00:27:26.200 --> 00:27:30.799 the S and P five hundred up eight consecutive days NASDAG nine consecutive days, 355 00:27:30.039 --> 00:27:33.319 first time since twenty twenty one. That's and it was up not out of 356 00:27:33.319 --> 00:27:37.000 the last ten days. Yeah, said a little pull back. That's right. 357 00:27:37.079 --> 00:27:38.839 Y's right, because we're down on Thursday and then again a big rally 358 00:27:38.880 --> 00:27:41.000 on Friday. Big rally. I mean that puts the S and P five 359 00:27:41.039 --> 00:27:45.440 hundred up fifteen percent again for the year, but the RSP is still negative 360 00:27:45.559 --> 00:27:49.200 point three percent. It's difficult, so difficult for a money manager in this 361 00:27:49.319 --> 00:27:52.400 environment where you've got the S and P five hundred up fifteen percent and the 362 00:27:52.440 --> 00:27:56.200 equal weighted which is where all of the value stocks are, and if you've 363 00:27:56.799 --> 00:28:02.759 most portfolios will have twenty five thirty sent in value stocks down for the year. 364 00:28:03.079 --> 00:28:04.799 Well, what we're seeing again, as we've seen most of this year, 365 00:28:06.000 --> 00:28:08.559 is is the magnificent seven and video was under four hundred dollars ten days 366 00:28:08.559 --> 00:28:11.759 ago. It was at four eighty on Friday. Yeah, Microsoft at all 367 00:28:11.799 --> 00:28:15.119 time highs all time seventy, Apples over one eighty eight, gain, Google's 368 00:28:15.119 --> 00:28:19.000 back, get in there, and Amazon's at one forty plus. Those are 369 00:28:19.000 --> 00:28:22.519 the stocks that has been driving this market for the last eight nine months. 370 00:28:22.599 --> 00:28:25.640 So why is it hard? You say, Oh, why is hart why 371 00:28:25.640 --> 00:28:30.079 you just being those stocks? Because as a fiduciary, you're supposed to do 372 00:28:30.160 --> 00:28:37.480 allocation correct. As fiduciary, you're supposed to spread around industries and companies and 373 00:28:37.559 --> 00:28:42.559 stocks and have an allocation in different things. And and if you just win 374 00:28:42.559 --> 00:28:48.519 those seven, your allocation would all be concentrated in high tech stocks, right. 375 00:28:48.920 --> 00:28:53.160 And that's what people don't really understand is that we have a fiduciary responsibility 376 00:28:53.319 --> 00:28:57.200 which is backed up by the SEC and FINRA to do the right thing. 377 00:28:57.319 --> 00:29:02.480 And it's always cool if everyone's making a lot of money, but if they 378 00:29:02.480 --> 00:29:06.200 don't make the money, then you have those attorneys out there sniffing around, 379 00:29:06.759 --> 00:29:11.200 going, oh, that was an unsuitable allocation. So it's kind of torn 380 00:29:11.440 --> 00:29:18.000 on both sides. But what we do is we make sure a growth allocation, 381 00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:19.720 whatever it is, was split it up between the good ones, and 382 00:29:19.759 --> 00:29:23.720 then we're in some of the are indexes, which is QQQ when the Spiders 383 00:29:23.720 --> 00:29:26.920 to help us along the way, right, we've got twelve and a half 384 00:29:26.000 --> 00:29:30.000 percent in Spiders, and qqq's in every single account, right, every single 385 00:29:30.000 --> 00:29:33.960 acount. One eighth it is in those those two stocks, those two indices 386 00:29:34.079 --> 00:29:38.880 which contain on all the magnificent seven. So with the market flat on the 387 00:29:38.920 --> 00:29:42.680 year, I think our average account's probably up four or five percent because of 388 00:29:42.720 --> 00:29:47.559 that. It's also depending on when the account was open, of different time 389 00:29:47.599 --> 00:29:49.039 means and all that. Because of the dollar cost averaging that we do. 390 00:29:49.319 --> 00:29:52.880 Yeah, because it's pup turn, so it can never be a flat return 391 00:29:52.920 --> 00:29:56.599 that we produce. I never talk about returns. And because everyone's different, 392 00:29:57.319 --> 00:30:00.680 and you know, some people want more in growth, less in growth, 393 00:30:00.960 --> 00:30:04.480 all right, and and more in the model less in the model. So 394 00:30:04.519 --> 00:30:07.880 what we do is make sure that we have a little piece of all of 395 00:30:07.880 --> 00:30:11.960 it when we're doing it, so we don't have to be totally out. 396 00:30:11.000 --> 00:30:15.920 But there's no doubt even if you were just in the Nasdaq one hundred, 397 00:30:15.960 --> 00:30:19.160 which is where a lot of these stocks are, they make up defenses you 398 00:30:19.160 --> 00:30:22.960 would have if you were in those individual stocks. Other than that, you 399 00:30:22.960 --> 00:30:26.160 would have been making so much more money, and so I hear people, 400 00:30:26.160 --> 00:30:29.000 Oh I made so much money. I was up thirty forty percent this year. 401 00:30:29.519 --> 00:30:32.720 Well what's your portfolio? Well I got our ball, I got Michael 402 00:30:32.759 --> 00:30:34.680 so well, of course you are. You know what I'm saying. And 403 00:30:34.759 --> 00:30:38.440 on the same token in twenty twenty two in December, when we all got 404 00:30:38.480 --> 00:30:41.559 crushed down to one hundred, why don't you talk about how much money you 405 00:30:41.559 --> 00:30:45.720 lost then? Right, because we've got we've got two objectives, Dean. 406 00:30:45.799 --> 00:30:48.039 One is return on the money. Number two is return of the money. 407 00:30:48.279 --> 00:30:51.119 We have a lot of class. It's important. Yeah, we have a 408 00:30:51.160 --> 00:30:53.319 lot of clients that take monthly distributions to live on because they're retired. You 409 00:30:53.319 --> 00:30:57.519 can't be putting them in all in Nvidia stock was one hundred and ninety dollars 410 00:30:57.559 --> 00:31:00.799 like a year and a half ago. Yeah, you can't. That kind 411 00:31:00.799 --> 00:31:03.759 of polatility is not suitable for most people. Yeah, there's different things you 412 00:31:03.799 --> 00:31:07.160 can look into. I mean we also bought XLK for some clients, which 413 00:31:07.200 --> 00:31:11.079 is just the technology c app so you get a little more diversification, but 414 00:31:11.240 --> 00:31:15.640 you do get exposure to those stocks. Right now. It's just I wanted 415 00:31:15.640 --> 00:31:19.559 people to understand the fiducial responsibility of financial advisors, and that goes for everything, 416 00:31:19.880 --> 00:31:22.960 cause people think were so genial, Oh we should all that's all we 417 00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:26.519 should be in. That's the only thing going up right, And it's kind 418 00:31:26.519 --> 00:31:27.799 of like your health. You know, your health is good until it's not. 419 00:31:29.960 --> 00:31:33.160 The tech stocks are good until they're not. And when they're not, 420 00:31:33.359 --> 00:31:37.240 it rolls very very quickly. We saw on twenty two, always so interesting 421 00:31:37.279 --> 00:31:41.079 how the mindset of people whining videos is going down out of two hundred dollars 422 00:31:41.119 --> 00:31:42.759 again it was over three hundred. Was that six hundred and all of that, 423 00:31:42.839 --> 00:31:45.119 and then it was going back down out of two hundred, and people 424 00:31:45.119 --> 00:31:48.359 were like, I don't want to buy it. Why would I buy it 425 00:31:48.359 --> 00:31:51.079 there? Why would I buy it? It's going down to zero, And 426 00:31:51.119 --> 00:31:52.359 now it's that four fifty. They're like they can't get enough of it. 427 00:31:52.640 --> 00:31:56.119 Oh, down to four hundred a week ago and I had a couple two 428 00:31:56.160 --> 00:31:56.839 or three calls, should we sell it here? Should we sell it here? 429 00:31:56.880 --> 00:32:00.000 Exact now all could have done this a number time. Now it's up 430 00:32:00.000 --> 00:32:04.119 to almost five hundred again, just you know, literally a week later. 431 00:32:04.680 --> 00:32:07.240 I mean, it's just it's that kind of volatility is is not comfortable for 432 00:32:07.359 --> 00:32:10.960 most people. The emotions of it get the best of a lot of people, 433 00:32:12.039 --> 00:32:15.400 especially if they're not really secure and sure on what their risk tolerance is 434 00:32:15.400 --> 00:32:19.279 in the market. If they're just dabbling in and just kind of just messing 435 00:32:19.359 --> 00:32:21.960 around, that's gonna you're going to see the up and down like in an 436 00:32:22.039 --> 00:32:23.519 video, and probably a risk tolerance isn't high enough for that. If you 437 00:32:24.079 --> 00:32:29.720 don't want to drive faster than sixty five miles an hour, the guy driving 438 00:32:29.839 --> 00:32:32.799 ninety is going to beat you. You buy acceptance. Okay, he may 439 00:32:32.880 --> 00:32:37.319 he may get in a wreck and not and not beat you, but in 440 00:32:37.480 --> 00:32:39.880 most cases he's going to beat you. So you have to decide to front. 441 00:32:39.880 --> 00:32:44.240 We spend an awful lot of time with that. I've often said before 442 00:32:44.279 --> 00:32:46.119 we can, we can be the best driver in the world. But if 443 00:32:46.160 --> 00:32:50.119 you said I want to go to Phoenix at no more than seventy five miles 444 00:32:50.119 --> 00:32:53.279 an hour and we head east at ninety, something's wrong. Yeah, we've 445 00:32:53.319 --> 00:32:58.519 got to get on the same page. And when when the markets are like 446 00:32:58.599 --> 00:33:00.880 this, you want to be more aggressed. That's natural. When markets are 447 00:33:00.960 --> 00:33:05.200 like they were last year, you want to be more defensive. That's natural. 448 00:33:05.720 --> 00:33:08.000 We sit down and we look at the allocation, and you guys do 449 00:33:08.039 --> 00:33:12.279 a great job with the financial plans, and then we go a step beyond 450 00:33:12.279 --> 00:33:14.759 that. If they'd like us to manage some of the money. There's no 451 00:33:14.799 --> 00:33:19.000 requirement. But if that were to be the case, we spend a lot 452 00:33:19.000 --> 00:33:22.039 of time trying to make sure we're on the same page. Let's face it, 453 00:33:22.799 --> 00:33:25.119 you know all that is, you know, just by quality, hold 454 00:33:25.160 --> 00:33:29.480 on to it and it'll make money over time. Yeah, that's great, 455 00:33:30.000 --> 00:33:35.279 except that people don't take agent the consideration. And when you're over sixty and 456 00:33:35.279 --> 00:33:37.880 you're getting close to retirement or you are retired, the ups and downs in 457 00:33:37.920 --> 00:33:43.720 the market creates a lot of stress and if you're not mitigating risk, you 458 00:33:43.759 --> 00:33:49.160 in trouble. But can I tell you this that one day the markets will 459 00:33:49.160 --> 00:33:52.200 make new highs again. Of course, okay, always do they will, 460 00:33:52.200 --> 00:33:58.000 they make new highs again. But the problem is as you get older and 461 00:33:58.079 --> 00:34:00.880 closer to the fact that you don't want to get it to two or three 462 00:34:00.920 --> 00:34:04.559 or five years, that it takes sometimes after a decline to come back and 463 00:34:04.559 --> 00:34:08.639 make new highs. You're more apt to sell at the bottom absolutely, and 464 00:34:08.760 --> 00:34:12.360 then go ahead. No, I was just gonna say you more app to 465 00:34:12.400 --> 00:34:15.679 do that when the markets are going down and all you hearing the news is 466 00:34:15.719 --> 00:34:19.800 all negative stuff. And so when people just say I'll just stay there and 467 00:34:20.159 --> 00:34:23.320 buy it, hold, don't do anything. Just uh, there's one or 468 00:34:23.320 --> 00:34:28.119 two things that are happening. They're not in control of your portfolio. They 469 00:34:28.159 --> 00:34:30.440 pass it on to someone else and they don't and they'll and the people that 470 00:34:30.480 --> 00:34:35.800 are doing it or either invested or they're not. Or two they don't know 471 00:34:35.800 --> 00:34:38.239 how to do it right, couldn't couldn't agree with you more, Dean. 472 00:34:38.320 --> 00:34:44.360 That's that's exactly right. And I often say that we sleep nights when you 473 00:34:44.440 --> 00:34:46.760 sleep nights, and I like sleeping nights, Dean, I'm about you, 474 00:34:46.760 --> 00:34:51.280 but I like sleeping night. And now we get sleep an hour an hour 475 00:34:51.360 --> 00:34:54.519 longer. So that's pretty nice. But does drag on in the afternoon, 476 00:34:54.519 --> 00:34:59.480 doesn't it? No? I feel pretty good. The the the uh. 477 00:34:59.639 --> 00:35:05.599 The other one thing too is don't let people go on your fear and just 478 00:35:05.639 --> 00:35:09.760 put you in annuities from your growth portfolio. Part if you allocate money towards 479 00:35:09.880 --> 00:35:15.440 investing into and and and for it growing and then and then you get scared 480 00:35:15.440 --> 00:35:17.000 and they come to you and say, oh, just buy this annuity. 481 00:35:17.920 --> 00:35:23.559 You only have upside, not downside. The problem is that your upside it's 482 00:35:23.639 --> 00:35:30.199 so limited. It is that you won't not benefit when the markets really rally, 483 00:35:30.639 --> 00:35:32.159 even when you're getting sixty percent of the S and P five hundred, 484 00:35:32.199 --> 00:35:37.199 which is good. But there's some things. And now we're going to talk 485 00:35:37.199 --> 00:35:40.159 about annuities because a lot of people have been asking about them lately, especially 486 00:35:40.440 --> 00:35:45.480 UH in October after three months of being down, and so I want to 487 00:35:45.519 --> 00:35:46.960 I want to touch on those and we will do that. We'll be back. 488 00:35:47.039 --> 00:35:51.159 This is the Money Matter Show. I can't tell you how much we 489 00:35:51.199 --> 00:35:54.559 appreciate you guys listening, being part of it and coming and telling us that 490 00:35:54.599 --> 00:36:02.639 you like the show. We'll be back. Welcome back. We got Dave 491 00:36:02.679 --> 00:36:07.719 show ed, Dean Greenberg, Dealiling Greenberg and Todd Glick bringing you the money 492 00:36:07.719 --> 00:36:12.599 bout of show. You can get it on any podcast. Go back, 493 00:36:12.599 --> 00:36:15.440 look at it last week. So list you know what I want you to 494 00:36:15.440 --> 00:36:16.199 do. I want you to go back a couple weeks and listening to the 495 00:36:16.239 --> 00:36:22.760 monologue and when we were talking about what we thought the Bonkets were going to 496 00:36:22.840 --> 00:36:25.079 do, and better put, you can go directly on our YouTube page where 497 00:36:25.119 --> 00:36:30.559 it is actually posted. Oh so that's even just perfectly for you to listen. 498 00:36:30.119 --> 00:36:34.639 And so you can just go to our YouTube look up Greenberg Financial Group. 499 00:36:34.679 --> 00:36:37.360 You'll find our page. You can subscribe, get all the updates on 500 00:36:37.400 --> 00:36:39.599 new videos. But yes, the two weeks ago monologue is on there. 501 00:36:39.639 --> 00:36:44.760 It's got a nice pretty video of Tucson. As you talk and put it 502 00:36:44.760 --> 00:36:46.960 in your pocket. Listen to Dean's monologue. It's a really good twenty four 503 00:36:47.000 --> 00:36:51.880 minutes of information. So you were talking a little bit about anwdies before the 504 00:36:51.960 --> 00:36:54.719 last break, and obviously a lot of people have been looking into them as 505 00:36:55.119 --> 00:37:00.559 the risk how do I say this? The risk level people are able to 506 00:37:00.559 --> 00:37:06.400 tolerate is getting lower. What's the greatest contrary indicator ever? Right? Right? 507 00:37:06.440 --> 00:37:09.719 I mean annuity failed the best sales for annuities and it was thousand was 508 00:37:09.719 --> 00:37:12.840 in two thousand and eight, right, and that was why and now it's 509 00:37:12.960 --> 00:37:15.599 the best since two thousand eight. You see him felling annuities like there's no 510 00:37:15.679 --> 00:37:17.480 tomorrow, that's the time to load up. I am wondering if twenty twenty 511 00:37:17.519 --> 00:37:22.400 three will beat twenty twenty two. Twenty twenty two had a lot of annuity 512 00:37:22.440 --> 00:37:24.159 sales, so it's going to be interesting to see the year end. But 513 00:37:24.920 --> 00:37:29.480 going back to what kind of annuities have been very popular has been my gas 514 00:37:29.599 --> 00:37:35.079 the multi year guaranteed annuities essentially just a CD with an annuity company. And 515 00:37:35.480 --> 00:37:38.400 the reason it's so popular is right now you can get an a rated insurance 516 00:37:38.400 --> 00:37:43.440 company. This one is Athene, and Athene is paying six point one five 517 00:37:43.440 --> 00:37:47.280 percent guaranteed for five years. You can pull out six point one five percent 518 00:37:47.320 --> 00:37:51.199 penalty free in any given year, or you can leave it in there and 519 00:37:51.239 --> 00:37:54.760 have it compound. It's a really nice product. You even have the ability 520 00:37:54.760 --> 00:37:59.920 to have additional contributions if you wanted to. So it is a five. 521 00:38:00.199 --> 00:38:02.079 You can look at three years, you can look at seven years. That's 522 00:38:02.119 --> 00:38:06.039 the best a rated product we've been able to find. Plus they're a great 523 00:38:06.039 --> 00:38:08.360 team, very fast on processing times. The other option that a lot of 524 00:38:08.400 --> 00:38:14.360 people looking into annuities are FIA is fixed index annuities. That's because people don't 525 00:38:14.440 --> 00:38:16.679 like the idea of possibly losing any money, but you pay for that. 526 00:38:17.199 --> 00:38:20.760 The reason you pay for that is because you're going to be capped, so 527 00:38:20.840 --> 00:38:23.119 Let's say in your annuity you're based on the S and P five hundred and 528 00:38:23.119 --> 00:38:27.119 you have a cap rate of nine percent. That means you can only make 529 00:38:27.159 --> 00:38:30.320 a maximum of nine percent in any given year, but you will never lose 530 00:38:30.360 --> 00:38:31.639 any money in any given a year, either because you have a floor or 531 00:38:31.760 --> 00:38:36.079 zero percent. The market's down ten percent, you're not down ten, You're 532 00:38:36.079 --> 00:38:38.920 only down. You're actually flat, you're zero. If the market's up ten, 533 00:38:39.000 --> 00:38:43.039 you're not up ten, you're only up nine. Right, So that's 534 00:38:43.079 --> 00:38:45.400 how the caps work in the FIA. Then it gets even more complicated if 535 00:38:45.440 --> 00:38:50.079 you add something on top of it called an income rider. These are where 536 00:38:50.119 --> 00:38:52.719 the bonuses start coming into play, where people will here get a twenty five 537 00:38:52.760 --> 00:38:57.719 percent return in your first year, guaranteed, get a buy fact percent bonus, 538 00:38:57.760 --> 00:39:02.119 not return five. Yeah, annuity salesman's really try to mislead people, 539 00:39:02.320 --> 00:39:07.440 and just to even say it, to even say a bonus is misleading, 540 00:39:07.519 --> 00:39:09.320 right because it seems like a return. Anytime you see a percentage, you 541 00:39:09.360 --> 00:39:13.239 think it's a return. We call that funny money. Right, Yes, 542 00:39:13.360 --> 00:39:15.960 it's there for your income down the road, and that's how they get away 543 00:39:15.960 --> 00:39:19.679 with it, quote legally, but there's not an investor that I have talked 544 00:39:19.719 --> 00:39:22.639 to that has came to me and said tell me about this, that ever 545 00:39:22.760 --> 00:39:25.840 understood it. And even furthermore, there's a couple extra ploys that have been 546 00:39:27.000 --> 00:39:31.119 introduced into the marketplace where for the first and second year, your fixed rate 547 00:39:31.199 --> 00:39:37.000 strategy will pay you an obscene amount. So I've seen fixed indextinuities where they'll 548 00:39:37.039 --> 00:39:39.679 say we'll pay you seven point five percent on your fixed account for the first 549 00:39:39.760 --> 00:39:44.480 year, five percent on your fixed account for the second year, guaranteed no 550 00:39:44.519 --> 00:39:46.840 matter what rates do. And then after that third year, who knows what, 551 00:39:46.920 --> 00:39:52.079 you get a minimum of one exactly guarantee of no less than point twenty 552 00:39:52.119 --> 00:39:54.280 five right, And that's usually it's stipulated in the contract. So just know 553 00:39:54.400 --> 00:39:58.960 like you're going to hear that a lot. Because of interest rates have gone 554 00:39:59.039 --> 00:40:01.719 up so much, annuity companies they can start introducing a lot of different ploys 555 00:40:01.920 --> 00:40:07.000 and a different marketing strategies to get more people into the door. That's one 556 00:40:07.039 --> 00:40:08.880 of them that I've just seen recently, the one that you that I thought 557 00:40:08.960 --> 00:40:14.199 was interesting. And these are for people that, okay, want to be 558 00:40:14.199 --> 00:40:16.440 in the market, yeah, okay, and no catch, but it's you 559 00:40:16.480 --> 00:40:20.920 know, if it's the ten percent one the trigger, the trigger if you 560 00:40:21.119 --> 00:40:23.159 if you make one dollar, you make ten percent. If you make twenty 561 00:40:23.199 --> 00:40:27.440 percent, you make ten percent. If it goes down one dollar, you 562 00:40:27.559 --> 00:40:29.800 even the S and P. If the S and P is up one dollar. 563 00:40:30.079 --> 00:40:31.800 Yeah, So like this, that particular product that he's talking about is 564 00:40:31.840 --> 00:40:36.800 a five year with Lincoln National. It's a FIA and and if when you 565 00:40:36.840 --> 00:40:39.599 start the contract it's a calendar year from that point, if the S and 566 00:40:39.599 --> 00:40:43.199 P's up one dollar, you get the full nine percent. If it's up 567 00:40:43.639 --> 00:40:45.719 twenty percent in one given year, you still get the nine percent. But 568 00:40:45.920 --> 00:40:51.559 in that product you have a you also are guaranteed not to lose any money 569 00:40:51.559 --> 00:40:53.679 an even given a year, you have a floor zero. So it is 570 00:40:53.800 --> 00:40:58.920 nice for some people who look into possibly, you know, using it as 571 00:40:58.920 --> 00:41:02.480 a bond alternative, or someone who's just super risk averse but wants to have 572 00:41:02.519 --> 00:41:07.440 some participation in the market without that risk. Well, it's hard to call 573 00:41:07.440 --> 00:41:09.400 it a bond alternative. Now. It was easy when interest rates for one 574 00:41:09.440 --> 00:41:13.880 percent because you can get five percent. Now what I look at et as 575 00:41:13.880 --> 00:41:17.639 someone that is happy to be able to make ten percent if the S and 576 00:41:17.639 --> 00:41:22.400 p is up one dollar to whatever, right, Okay, but don't want 577 00:41:22.400 --> 00:41:25.280 to lose when the markets go down. So in other words, you put 578 00:41:25.320 --> 00:41:29.480 one hundred thousand dollars in. If the first year of the market's down twenty 579 00:41:29.480 --> 00:41:32.119 percent, you still have one hundred grand. If the second year the market 580 00:41:32.159 --> 00:41:36.480 is up two percent, you make ten percent. Now you're one hundred and 581 00:41:36.559 --> 00:41:39.199 ten percent under ten thousand. And then if you're up twenty percent the next 582 00:41:39.239 --> 00:41:44.280 year, you only make ten percent again. And so it's very but don't 583 00:41:44.320 --> 00:41:46.599 forget. They still have fees. They still have things like that that you 584 00:41:46.760 --> 00:41:52.159 have to know and understand. And look at the illustration, a real illustration 585 00:41:52.880 --> 00:41:57.519 of how it all works. Yeah, considering an annuity, you really have 586 00:41:57.599 --> 00:42:00.119 to be talking with someone that you trust, someone that you know, someone 587 00:42:00.159 --> 00:42:06.639 that you you believe will steer you correctly because there are so many different options. 588 00:42:06.800 --> 00:42:10.360 It's amazing to me from the insurance side of this, And they call 589 00:42:10.440 --> 00:42:15.320 themselves planner. Is the only thing that they're selling are annuities or insurance? 590 00:42:15.360 --> 00:42:17.599 Yep, that universal insurance. Hey, you put all this money in, 591 00:42:17.679 --> 00:42:22.360 put one lump something in universal policy. I'm talking to this guy this week, 592 00:42:22.400 --> 00:42:23.840 and you know what in ten years, you'll be able to pull out 593 00:42:23.920 --> 00:42:29.760 all this money tax free. Not one thing about if it doesn't work out 594 00:42:29.760 --> 00:42:31.760 that you have to be and you're taking that money out and you stop paying 595 00:42:31.800 --> 00:42:36.880 premiums, that now would becomes saxophle. Now one thing about the fact you 596 00:42:36.920 --> 00:42:40.519 can't take out that much money the projections didn't work out, Not one thing 597 00:42:40.559 --> 00:42:45.480 about the fact that universal policies could be upside down at times. All right 598 00:42:45.559 --> 00:42:49.480 now and will be, will be honestly if you don't, if you don't, 599 00:42:50.880 --> 00:42:53.360 right, you know. And so it just amazes me, and he 600 00:42:53.400 --> 00:42:55.840 goes, well, this was part of the financial plan on how I can 601 00:42:55.840 --> 00:43:00.239 take out tax free income. It sounded great. Well, of course it 602 00:43:00.239 --> 00:43:04.880 does. But that's what they're selling. You sell the plan, buy the 603 00:43:04.920 --> 00:43:09.159 plan, implement the plan of everything you have, because a plan has to 604 00:43:09.159 --> 00:43:15.400 be your protection, which is insurances, your long term care, your health 605 00:43:15.440 --> 00:43:19.519 has to be in the consideration, your medicare, your social security, your 606 00:43:19.559 --> 00:43:22.639 cash flow plan that you put together, your retirement plan that you put together, 607 00:43:22.760 --> 00:43:28.960 your state plan that you put together. That's what encompasses the tie of 608 00:43:29.039 --> 00:43:31.920 plan and also that lurp, and that's what you're talking about with the cash 609 00:43:31.960 --> 00:43:36.679 value life insurance and taking out money, and the people like to market it 610 00:43:36.760 --> 00:43:38.880 all kinds of different ways. LURP is the most popular. Being your own 611 00:43:38.880 --> 00:43:44.320 banker is another way they market it. LURP stands for Life Insurance Retirement Plan, 612 00:43:45.119 --> 00:43:47.039 and it's just a marketing point. It's not an actual retirement plan. 613 00:43:47.760 --> 00:43:51.559 That's just a word that they put on top of it. It's actually called 614 00:43:51.559 --> 00:43:54.639 a universal life insurance policy or it's a could be a variable universal life or 615 00:43:55.119 --> 00:43:59.719 a whole life, but either way, it's not an actual retirement plan. 616 00:44:00.079 --> 00:44:01.880 So I hit so many times people in retirement. They'll call me up and 617 00:44:01.880 --> 00:44:06.199 they'll be like, should I be looking into this LURP. I've never seen 618 00:44:06.400 --> 00:44:09.239 it really work for anyone older older than the age of fifty five unless you 619 00:44:09.280 --> 00:44:13.800 have a lot, a lot of money, and because then you can possibly 620 00:44:13.800 --> 00:44:16.679 make it up on the tax savings, but you are paying for insurance. 621 00:44:16.719 --> 00:44:21.159 And when you're old, guess what how much insurance costs? Doesn't didn't cost 622 00:44:21.159 --> 00:44:24.199 how much it is for Todd junior, Right, it's a lot different. 623 00:44:24.679 --> 00:44:29.000 So, and it also goes into your health and all that, and so 624 00:44:29.119 --> 00:44:31.840 there's there's so many things that you have to it's it's a lot more complicated 625 00:44:31.920 --> 00:44:35.760 than they that they want to make it seem. Because if if they can 626 00:44:35.760 --> 00:44:37.960 make it seem as simple as possible and they can get that commission up front, 627 00:44:38.000 --> 00:44:43.599 it's a big payday for them. Yeah, that's a big I want 628 00:44:43.639 --> 00:44:45.639 to go back on that annuities real quick though, because I ran into a 629 00:44:45.679 --> 00:44:50.880 client and I think a lot of possible clients could have this, or people 630 00:44:50.880 --> 00:44:52.920 who are listening to the show. If you have an IRA annuity where you've 631 00:44:52.920 --> 00:44:57.199 turned on the income, you need to make sure if you have a spouse 632 00:44:57.239 --> 00:45:00.679 and you want that income to be joined that the she is that your spouse 633 00:45:00.760 --> 00:45:05.920 he or she is listed as the joint anwittent on the IRA. They're not 634 00:45:06.000 --> 00:45:08.400 all IRA nudies allow for joint income, so you have to ask the annuity 635 00:45:08.679 --> 00:45:12.920 company that it's with. But if they are listed as joint new attents, 636 00:45:12.960 --> 00:45:15.239 the income will pass over. Otherwise, if there's no money left in the 637 00:45:15.280 --> 00:45:21.960 annuity at the time of the owner's IRA's annuity's death, then the spouse's income 638 00:45:22.159 --> 00:45:25.320 is no longer and there's no income, there's no money for them to inherit. 639 00:45:25.800 --> 00:45:30.159 So that's something to be considering, especially if you just turned on income 640 00:45:30.199 --> 00:45:32.760 in the last five years, because there's still probably a little bit of money 641 00:45:34.159 --> 00:45:37.119 there because if people don't know, just because you're getting guaranteed lifetime income, 642 00:45:37.159 --> 00:45:40.840 it's still coming off your account value. So eventually that a count value will 643 00:45:40.920 --> 00:45:45.000 be zero. Doesn't mean your income stops, but it means your errors aren't 644 00:45:45.000 --> 00:45:47.159 going to get anything when you stop. You know, there are three things 645 00:45:47.239 --> 00:45:51.760 that made me smile this week. At least three, right, they're probably 646 00:45:51.760 --> 00:45:53.679 more than that, but there's three. The market rally made me smile. 647 00:45:54.320 --> 00:46:00.800 A report that China's exports to the United States dropped six point four percent last 648 00:46:00.840 --> 00:46:07.599 month. We're making progress there, and the oil prices continue to plummet. 649 00:46:07.960 --> 00:46:12.639 Russia and Saudi Arabia announced that they're going to continue their production cuts, but 650 00:46:12.800 --> 00:46:15.280 nobody cares, and oil continue to drop. So not only are you going 651 00:46:15.320 --> 00:46:19.679 to sell less oil, you're gonna sell it at an ore price. So 652 00:46:20.159 --> 00:46:23.400 yay Russia. Saudi Arabia too bad? Yeah, I think bad. I 653 00:46:23.440 --> 00:46:27.920 think their costs for oil production is something ridiculous. Oh it wou'd be very 654 00:46:27.960 --> 00:46:30.519 low. But in the twenties, you think of the amount of money you're 655 00:46:30.519 --> 00:46:34.480 giving up with oil down, what fifteen bucks from the high end, and 656 00:46:34.519 --> 00:46:37.320 now you're also they're making less of it. They're making it up with all 657 00:46:37.360 --> 00:46:39.800 the US treasuries they own, with all the interest rates that they're buying. 658 00:46:40.280 --> 00:46:44.079 That looks like Warren Buffett, right, Yeah, they're just sitting on cash 659 00:46:44.159 --> 00:46:51.079 generating interest. It's ridiculous about that little little things going on with Buffet that 660 00:46:51.159 --> 00:46:53.239 they were saying in his own portfolio, he was buying stocks that are in 661 00:46:53.280 --> 00:46:58.880 his company portfolio. Really yeah, I didn't see that, you know, 662 00:46:58.960 --> 00:47:00.800 but no one really knows that details. That was the highlight City buy him 663 00:47:00.800 --> 00:47:06.480 before two years before because they were like Walmont and stuff like that. But 664 00:47:06.800 --> 00:47:08.079 first of all, I don't even know why we would have his own portfolio. 665 00:47:08.320 --> 00:47:10.400 Why would you bother? Why wouldn't he just put all his money in 666 00:47:10.400 --> 00:47:15.039 the other se one hundred forty nine billion in cash one hundred and forty nine 667 00:47:15.199 --> 00:47:17.840 billion. Well, I guess he gets all the money that comes out, 668 00:47:17.880 --> 00:47:22.639 he's got to invest it, you know, right, Good, we'll be 669 00:47:22.719 --> 00:47:27.360 back. This is the Money Matter Show. If you want to see us, 670 00:47:27.760 --> 00:47:30.840 talk to us, just get on our website and contact us or call 671 00:47:30.920 --> 00:47:35.079 us and just send an appointment. And we've been doing a lot of that 672 00:47:35.199 --> 00:47:38.320 lately, and it's uh, it's been very very helpful for people, and 673 00:47:38.679 --> 00:47:43.199 we're going to continue doing it because that's our business and we love it having 674 00:47:43.239 --> 00:47:45.760 new people come in and talk to us. We'll be back. This is 675 00:47:45.800 --> 00:47:55.800 the money Man Show. Welcome back. You're listening to the second hour of 676 00:47:55.800 --> 00:47:59.519 the Moneymatter Show. I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Dave sure Would, 677 00:47:59.519 --> 00:48:01.920 Todd Glick, and Dean Greenberg. For those of you just tuning in. 678 00:48:02.000 --> 00:48:06.320 The Dow is up point seven percent last week. The S and P five 679 00:48:06.400 --> 00:48:08.840 hundred was up one point three percent, the Nasdaq was up two point four 680 00:48:08.840 --> 00:48:13.639 percent, the Russell two thousand, the small caps were down three percent, 681 00:48:13.719 --> 00:48:15.920 and the RSP, which is the equal weight to S and P five hundred, 682 00:48:16.239 --> 00:48:20.559 was down point six percent for the week. And S and P five 683 00:48:20.599 --> 00:48:22.039 hundred has been killing it the last like we were talking about the first hour, 684 00:48:22.039 --> 00:48:24.800 has been up nine out of last ten days. It's back up fifteen 685 00:48:24.840 --> 00:48:28.400 percent for the year. The Dow is up three and a half percent for 686 00:48:28.400 --> 00:48:30.320 the year. The NASDAK, which is tech heavy, is up thirty two 687 00:48:30.360 --> 00:48:34.519 percent for the year. And those are mainly those seven stocks we talked about 688 00:48:34.559 --> 00:48:37.920 all the time, in Vidia, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft. 689 00:48:37.320 --> 00:48:40.679 That's what's driving sm P five hundred and the NASDAK. But that's why you 690 00:48:40.679 --> 00:48:45.760 see the equal weighted S and P five hundred down for the year slightly pretty 691 00:48:45.800 --> 00:48:46.880 much flat. I mean, it's down point three percent for the year. 692 00:48:47.119 --> 00:48:51.039 But that's why it's not up fifteen percent because the majority of these stocks are 693 00:48:51.119 --> 00:48:53.480 not doing well. Value stocks are getting killed this year. Value stocks simply 694 00:48:53.559 --> 00:48:58.199 have not performed. The equal weighted S and P five hundred flat for the 695 00:48:58.280 --> 00:49:01.920 year. The dividend e ts are actually down five to seven percent for the 696 00:49:02.000 --> 00:49:06.719 year, including the dividend. And that's why conservative investors are a little confused 697 00:49:06.719 --> 00:49:08.440 the last couple of years because they're thinking, Okay, we should be up, 698 00:49:08.440 --> 00:49:10.920 we should be running with this. Why are we not going Last year, 699 00:49:10.920 --> 00:49:14.719 they're confused why they were down so much, Because bond funds just got 700 00:49:14.800 --> 00:49:17.480 hammered more than equity funds last year. They were down more. So you're 701 00:49:17.480 --> 00:49:20.960 gonna get hit hard that way if you're in those bond funds, which if 702 00:49:21.000 --> 00:49:23.039 you're in a conservative investor you're most likely in at least forty percent. Well, 703 00:49:23.119 --> 00:49:25.719 if you stayed in long term bonds last year, you got, like 704 00:49:25.760 --> 00:49:29.159 you said, Dylan, you got hammered long term bond funds. Yeah, 705 00:49:29.280 --> 00:49:31.599 especially horrible. At least the bonds. If you're an individual, say ten 706 00:49:31.719 --> 00:49:35.239 or twenty bonds, you get your principal back at that time. You're still 707 00:49:35.239 --> 00:49:37.079 going to see right now they're down in value, but if you don't sell 708 00:49:37.119 --> 00:49:40.159 them, you'll get your principal back at the maturity date. But with this 709 00:49:40.320 --> 00:49:45.440 value stocks this year, they're getting hammered again. I was interested to see 710 00:49:45.679 --> 00:49:49.760 gold, to see gold. This past week, gold was eighteen hundred dollars. 711 00:49:49.800 --> 00:49:53.320 Remember gold moved inversely to the dollar. With interest rates high, the 712 00:49:53.400 --> 00:49:58.440 dollars high, so gold was down around eighteen hundred dollars, and it jumped 713 00:49:58.480 --> 00:50:02.039 from eighteen hundred to two thousand based on the war and the concern that the 714 00:50:02.039 --> 00:50:07.440 war was going to expand going to become a bigger deal. It dropped fifty 715 00:50:07.480 --> 00:50:12.679 six bucks this week to nineteen thirty five. And unless we see evidence that 716 00:50:12.719 --> 00:50:15.559 the war is going to become a bigger deal, I think it's going back 717 00:50:15.599 --> 00:50:19.280 to eighteen hundred. Likely, I think it's going to go backward. It's 718 00:50:19.280 --> 00:50:22.079 supposed to be. It wouldn't have it would still be eighteen hundred. If 719 00:50:22.119 --> 00:50:28.199 it wasn't for the war ten year treasury four point six, two year treasury 720 00:50:28.320 --> 00:50:32.320 five point one todd forty four basis point spread, that spread was a full 721 00:50:32.360 --> 00:50:37.639 percentage point. Then it dropped to almost nothing, and now the last three 722 00:50:37.800 --> 00:50:40.960 weeks in a row it's expanded. Not what we want to see. We 723 00:50:42.039 --> 00:50:47.320 want to see the yield curve become normal, and this inversion increasing like that 724 00:50:47.960 --> 00:50:52.320 not a good thing. We did see the S and P five hundred break 725 00:50:52.360 --> 00:50:55.800 above forty four hundred on Friday and closed there. Forty four hundred was a 726 00:50:55.920 --> 00:51:00.679 significant level of support. There was a gap in the charge at forty four 727 00:51:00.760 --> 00:51:05.000 hundred. There was a multiple attempts at forty four hundred that failed. We 728 00:51:05.159 --> 00:51:12.000 now closed above forty four hundred. That to me would be suggesting higher prices 729 00:51:12.039 --> 00:51:15.800 are ahead. Definitely is suggesting that I'm having a hard time believing in it, 730 00:51:15.840 --> 00:51:20.840 though, and because of the magnitude of the move, Yeah, I 731 00:51:20.880 --> 00:51:22.679 get that. Yeah, And so I mean it's possible that you have a 732 00:51:22.719 --> 00:51:27.760 fake out. Doesn't happen often. You don't normally see fake outs, especially 733 00:51:27.840 --> 00:51:30.280 on big markets like that, because there's so many players in it. But 734 00:51:31.239 --> 00:51:35.840 again, I just there's something not sitting with me, right, But you 735 00:51:35.840 --> 00:51:38.239 know, I just find it so fascinating with value investors. I mean, 736 00:51:38.280 --> 00:51:44.079 could you imagine, because when I was in finance, value investing is really 737 00:51:44.119 --> 00:51:47.480 how you invest in stocks, find alpha, you find undervalued companies. But 738 00:51:47.559 --> 00:51:51.440 if you did that over the last two three years, you're just getting killed. 739 00:51:51.480 --> 00:51:54.159 I think the twenty two value I'll performed if I remember correctly, I 740 00:51:54.199 --> 00:51:59.440 think the I think the value ETAs to actually finish twenty two higher, but 741 00:51:59.519 --> 00:52:02.199 it basically just got back. It's a racing of but twenty one. It's 742 00:52:02.239 --> 00:52:05.679 been tough this year, but I think that's an area where you need to 743 00:52:05.679 --> 00:52:10.199 look, and especially the underperformance it had in twenty twenty one, right compared 744 00:52:10.199 --> 00:52:14.079 to all the other stocks. And interestingly, in this environment, we're making 745 00:52:14.119 --> 00:52:17.639 sure that everybody has the appropriate amount of value stocks, even though they have 746 00:52:17.760 --> 00:52:21.599 not performed, because they will. It's been hard to hold them. It's 747 00:52:21.599 --> 00:52:23.840 been hard to hold them. It's harder. It's even harder to buy them. 748 00:52:24.159 --> 00:52:27.760 But that's what a person should be. And they're not sexy. You 749 00:52:27.800 --> 00:52:31.320 know, they don't make you really excited, and that's sometimes the other reason 750 00:52:31.320 --> 00:52:34.880 that you hate to see them in there. I mean talk about Disney, 751 00:52:34.960 --> 00:52:37.559 right, who has just been just a dog, hasn't been able to get 752 00:52:37.599 --> 00:52:40.880 out of its own way, and then finally jumps and it's finally Okay, 753 00:52:40.880 --> 00:52:45.400 well maybe we are finally a little excited about that one. But that's just 754 00:52:45.440 --> 00:52:49.159 another example of I mean Disney, and I don't know if it's considered a 755 00:52:49.239 --> 00:52:52.920 value, but it's pretty close to it. A nice it's like half and 756 00:52:52.960 --> 00:52:55.079 half. Let's say it's been one of the most comfortable stocks to be short 757 00:52:55.119 --> 00:52:59.519 over the last couple of years, right, because other than any little Way 758 00:53:00.079 --> 00:53:04.199 Little Rally and Disney or Walgreens, Right, yeah, Walgreen is probably the 759 00:53:04.199 --> 00:53:07.480 easiest to be short. Disney is another one. Just any rally just gets 760 00:53:07.480 --> 00:53:12.840 sold. And then we saw on Thursday they reported earnings, they reported a 761 00:53:12.880 --> 00:53:17.119 pretty solid quarter. UH streaming service picked up a little bit, made positive 762 00:53:17.159 --> 00:53:21.239 comments. Stock jumps about seven percent, and then on Friday if half of 763 00:53:21.239 --> 00:53:25.320 that back again, it's just a it's been a difficult Stoka. Lily's been 764 00:53:25.400 --> 00:53:30.559 amazing, amazing STOCKA we talk a little bit about the weight loss drugs, 765 00:53:30.559 --> 00:53:36.000 and Lily of course has Monjarro, which is the UH for diabetes and it's 766 00:53:36.000 --> 00:53:38.400 supposed to be all that right, twenty to twenty five percent loss of your 767 00:53:38.679 --> 00:53:45.159 of your body weight. They had to apply to the FDA for approval of 768 00:53:45.239 --> 00:53:49.400 the of their to do that for for weight loss. It's a proof of 769 00:53:49.440 --> 00:53:51.800 diabetes right now, but they want to do it for weight loss, and 770 00:53:51.840 --> 00:53:57.800 they got that approval and the drug is they can't I can't the names escaping 771 00:53:57.840 --> 00:54:00.239 me. Uh. They're going to market it under a different name. It's 772 00:54:00.639 --> 00:54:06.159 like, isn't it Uh, that's that's that's the active ingredient. That's the 773 00:54:06.199 --> 00:54:10.440 active ingredient. It's going to be uh monjurro is for diabetes, zep bound 774 00:54:10.639 --> 00:54:15.760 zep b o u n D is. The is the drug that's going to 775 00:54:15.800 --> 00:54:19.039 be for weight loss, and that's going to be available And that's really the 776 00:54:19.119 --> 00:54:23.119 first. People have been using these drugs for weight loss for months, right, 777 00:54:23.280 --> 00:54:27.760 but but it's never been approved for weight loss. Doctors have just been 778 00:54:27.800 --> 00:54:30.320 writing them off take I guess just I don't know how you do that. 779 00:54:30.320 --> 00:54:32.719 But anyway, people have been getting a hold of it and now they've they've 780 00:54:32.719 --> 00:54:36.559 gone ahead and approved it. One of the questions that came up in the 781 00:54:36.559 --> 00:54:39.480 office here is, well, it's gonna be about one thousand bucks a dose 782 00:54:40.079 --> 00:54:45.199 for zep zep bound. How much of that's going to be paid by insurance? 783 00:54:45.880 --> 00:54:50.159 It turns out it depends upon your carrier. Some carriers may cover it, 784 00:54:50.320 --> 00:54:53.760 some not. The one thing that was a was a definitive is Medicare 785 00:54:53.840 --> 00:55:00.159 will not be covering zep bound. So if you're over sixty five and on 786 00:55:00.280 --> 00:55:05.760 Medicare and looking for insurance coverage for ZEP bound, that simply is not going 787 00:55:05.800 --> 00:55:08.280 to happen. I think that's actually a good thing because that saves more money 788 00:55:08.280 --> 00:55:14.159 for life saving. Well, Congress is talking about making it. I don't 789 00:55:14.159 --> 00:55:19.480 know that people over sixty five really gonna inject themselves once a week with a 790 00:55:19.480 --> 00:55:22.480 weight loss. I'm thinking over sixty five, you're kind of comfortable in your 791 00:55:22.480 --> 00:55:27.360 skin, whatever your skin is. No, I think people would do it. 792 00:55:27.360 --> 00:55:29.480 You do, Yeah, what do you mean by not doing it? 793 00:55:29.760 --> 00:55:31.960 Yeah, I'm just thinking people over sixty five, if you're if you're heavy, 794 00:55:32.199 --> 00:55:35.840 then you're heavy. If you're if you're skinny, you're ginning. I 795 00:55:35.880 --> 00:55:38.199 mean you get kind of comfortable in your skin at that age. Yeah, 796 00:55:38.239 --> 00:55:43.239 no, no, no, I don't think you guys always to lose weight. 797 00:55:43.360 --> 00:55:45.599 Yeah, I come from a bigger side. But again, as only 798 00:55:46.280 --> 00:55:50.920 people exactly, there's only a limited amount of money in the medicare system, 799 00:55:51.000 --> 00:55:54.280 so but no medicare could possibly cover that. Yeah, I mean that takes 800 00:55:54.320 --> 00:55:58.679 away from life saving stuff. So how often do you have to get that 801 00:55:59.000 --> 00:56:02.360 injection struck or whatever once a weekend? It's a thousand dollars and you take 802 00:56:02.599 --> 00:56:07.079 dollars a week Yeah, jeez, No, she's probably not kind. And 803 00:56:07.840 --> 00:56:09.920 now they did say, I'll say, if you had to insurance, just 804 00:56:10.000 --> 00:56:14.360 Lily said. Lily said that they they are going to provide a card that 805 00:56:14.400 --> 00:56:16.679 will give you fifty percent off. Oh cool, so you have spend five 806 00:56:16.719 --> 00:56:22.679 hundred dollars. The stock reacted with a new all time high on Thursday or 807 00:56:22.679 --> 00:56:27.159 on Wednesday. Then on Thursday it just tanked, had this worst day in 808 00:56:27.199 --> 00:56:31.199 five years. And I think that may have something to do with the cost. 809 00:56:31.320 --> 00:56:36.079 It may have something to do with the lack of insurance coverage. And 810 00:56:36.320 --> 00:56:39.960 Astrosenega said they're going to join the FRAY as well, so maybe competition is 811 00:56:40.039 --> 00:56:43.639 playing a role. It seems like all the above was part of that. 812 00:56:44.000 --> 00:56:45.119 Plus they're not going to have their worst day in five years for one thing 813 00:56:45.119 --> 00:56:50.280 when it's looking positive. No, well, those things are definitely three negatives. 814 00:56:50.360 --> 00:56:53.760 And the market did turn red on Thursday because of drawing pals more hawkish 815 00:56:53.840 --> 00:56:59.079 rhetoric. Yeah, it wasn't expecting. They were saying they don't feel confident, 816 00:56:59.719 --> 00:57:02.519 but they done. Yeah, the big rally is is because of lower 817 00:57:02.519 --> 00:57:07.719 interest rates. If you believe the Federal Reserve is done racing interest rates, 818 00:57:07.840 --> 00:57:09.440 you want to get long stock in a hurry yep. And then he comes 819 00:57:09.440 --> 00:57:13.400 out and says, we don't know if we've done enough to curve inflation for 820 00:57:13.400 --> 00:57:15.440 the longer. We haven't broken anything yet, and that's why we have that 821 00:57:15.480 --> 00:57:20.760 inversion getting bigger. Yeah, because the investors are expecting rates to go down. 822 00:57:20.920 --> 00:57:22.400 And the one year, that's the two year that's really controlled by the 823 00:57:22.440 --> 00:57:27.079 Fed isn't budget. That's a good point. Fed does control short term race, 824 00:57:27.119 --> 00:57:30.880 they don't control long term rates and that could be why it pop jumped 825 00:57:30.960 --> 00:57:32.280 up a little bit and the ten year did not. And they're still not 826 00:57:32.320 --> 00:57:37.159 buzzing from that two percent inflation rate. There's that's still their goal, still 827 00:57:37.199 --> 00:57:39.719 the goal. And uh, it'll be interesting. We have CPI on Tuesday 828 00:57:39.960 --> 00:57:45.000 next Tuesday. Yeah, day after tomorrow and it should be good. I 829 00:57:45.000 --> 00:57:47.480 mean oil has been down, real estate is down. Well, then you 830 00:57:47.480 --> 00:57:52.039 get PPI on Wednesday. Huh. Then you get PPI on Wednesday PPI. 831 00:57:52.360 --> 00:57:54.679 You know if if CPI, if CPI is good, PPI can be bad. 832 00:57:54.719 --> 00:57:58.960 Does it kind of doesn't matter? Yeah, so I'm I'm less a 833 00:57:59.039 --> 00:58:04.119 huge divergence. It'll interesting because the CPI has after dropping for almost what twelve 834 00:58:04.159 --> 00:58:07.840 straight months, went up two months in a row, and then last month 835 00:58:07.880 --> 00:58:10.480 it was flat, if my memory shows me correctly, and so it would 836 00:58:10.480 --> 00:58:15.280 be interesting to see that drop again, which would add more weight to the 837 00:58:15.400 --> 00:58:17.320 We're going to get a little more interest rates and let's go, let's get 838 00:58:17.400 --> 00:58:22.519 this, let's buy stock. The time for a visit to the ev garage. 839 00:58:22.840 --> 00:58:25.159 I'm just thinking real quick, before we go to ev garage. Oil 840 00:58:25.239 --> 00:58:30.199 was at ninety like almost a month ago at this point, right correct, 841 00:58:30.360 --> 00:58:34.119 in the nineties. So then we could see that show up in the October 842 00:58:34.159 --> 00:58:37.559 CPI. Yeah, because it has dropped pretty dramatically. Now a lot of 843 00:58:37.599 --> 00:58:39.039 that drop has come within the last ten days. You're right, right, 844 00:58:39.079 --> 00:58:43.159 So it went to show up, that's November won't show up. But there 845 00:58:43.679 --> 00:58:47.000 was a decline. My friends in the real estate business say it's gotten a 846 00:58:47.000 --> 00:58:52.679 little softer. It did, but October, the expectations of it being down 847 00:58:53.079 --> 00:58:58.480 on month over month, on all all overall cells was actually wrong. It 848 00:58:58.519 --> 00:59:00.519 was. It was a positive month over a month. So those are big 849 00:59:01.039 --> 00:59:07.320 divergence there on expectations. So who knows, a little big, little harder 850 00:59:07.320 --> 00:59:09.159 than CPI than expected, maybe, but it shouldn't be too hot. Yeah, 851 00:59:09.199 --> 00:59:12.639 big move in one way or the other in the CPI. I'm betting 852 00:59:12.639 --> 00:59:15.440 it's down. But well, big move one way or the other in CPI 853 00:59:15.599 --> 00:59:20.159 is certainly a market mover all right, I'm gonna bet it's flat. Okay, 854 00:59:20.239 --> 00:59:23.400 you're going flat. I'm going down, Dylan, Yeah, I BETPI. 855 00:59:23.480 --> 00:59:28.519 You gotta go up, right, be more flat? Yeah? Two 856 00:59:28.599 --> 00:59:30.079 flats in a down. Yeah. Well, if if we get any of 857 00:59:30.119 --> 00:59:32.719 those three, that's a good thing, right, I would think so, 858 00:59:32.760 --> 00:59:36.840 except the up. The only thing that won't work is up. And of 859 00:59:36.840 --> 00:59:39.639 course we're in an environment right now we're kind of all news is good news. 860 00:59:40.199 --> 00:59:43.719 So if even if it were up a little bit, there'd be some 861 00:59:43.719 --> 00:59:46.400 way to explain it away. Yeah, I think I feel like the market. 862 00:59:47.000 --> 00:59:50.760 I feel like the market wants to go higher here, we're seasonally in 863 00:59:50.800 --> 00:59:54.599 a strong period the war reality. Yeah, seasonality is really critical. Look 864 00:59:54.639 --> 00:59:59.960 what happened in August, September, October, bad seasonality, bad mark. 865 01:00:00.400 --> 01:00:02.760 Now we've got a good seasonality for November, December, January, the three 866 01:00:02.800 --> 01:00:07.079 best months of the year historically, and okay, we're off to the races 867 01:00:07.119 --> 01:00:09.239 here. I don't understand the whole seasonality thing of it. When you start 868 01:00:09.320 --> 01:00:13.320 the day of the month a lot. I get what it is. I'm 869 01:00:13.320 --> 01:00:15.920 just saying, why does it always stay like pretty much stay true because you 870 01:00:16.000 --> 01:00:20.679 expect it to be. It's all about expectations, right, Always been trying 871 01:00:20.679 --> 01:00:22.639 to find why does September go down? Yeah, you expect markets to be 872 01:00:22.679 --> 01:00:25.599 higher in November, December, January, so they are, That's what I'm 873 01:00:25.599 --> 01:00:28.719 saying. So you buy, you don't sell, You wouldn't sell here, 874 01:00:28.800 --> 01:00:30.360 right, it's the seasonality. It's like people are in good moods because the 875 01:00:30.360 --> 01:00:34.760 holidays are around the end of the year. They're trying to money managers or 876 01:00:34.880 --> 01:00:37.800 institutions are trying to boost up their numbers something like that at the end of 877 01:00:37.800 --> 01:00:39.599 the year. But there's no reason September is always down. You know, 878 01:00:39.679 --> 01:00:44.000 it's just we've been trying to find why. My EV garage this week is 879 01:00:44.039 --> 01:00:46.119 about one thing I talk about a lot, and that's the number one complaint 880 01:00:46.239 --> 01:00:52.960 about EV's electorcy vehicles is range. The car I least has an advertised range 881 01:00:52.960 --> 01:00:55.840 of three hundred and thirty miles. We do know that extreme heat and extreme 882 01:00:55.920 --> 01:01:00.960 cold and do negatively impact range. So when I got the car in June 883 01:01:00.239 --> 01:01:06.480 and was getting just fifty percent of the advertised range fifty percent, I was 884 01:01:06.559 --> 01:01:08.800 very disappointed. But I hope cooler weather, would you know, help make 885 01:01:08.840 --> 01:01:13.679 it better. Over the past few weeks, temperatures have cooled and it has 886 01:01:13.760 --> 01:01:17.119 helped. I'm up to about seventy percent of the advertised range. I'm not 887 01:01:17.199 --> 01:01:22.519 in any world ever going to get the advertised range. Period. Surveys indicate 888 01:01:22.559 --> 01:01:28.199 that about forty percent of Americans are interested in buying an electric car, So 889 01:01:28.400 --> 01:01:30.400 understand, that means that we got about eight percent. Now, there's a 890 01:01:30.440 --> 01:01:35.239 lot of people out there shopping, kicking tires and things. So understand though, 891 01:01:35.239 --> 01:01:38.199 when you go to look for an electric car, uh, the advertised 892 01:01:38.320 --> 01:01:43.199 range is just not achievable. Now, if you talk to friends that have 893 01:01:43.239 --> 01:01:46.599 electric cars, oh yeah, yeah, I get that they're lying. I 894 01:01:46.679 --> 01:01:50.760 talked to three or four friends that have Tesla's before I got mine. Oh 895 01:01:50.840 --> 01:01:52.440 yeah, yeah, no no problem. Oh yeah, I go Sanyo Bagna. 896 01:01:53.079 --> 01:01:59.119 They're lying. It says it's that simple. Maybe it may be, 897 01:01:59.360 --> 01:02:01.880 and that may be that problem. Maybe why there's a class action lawsuit against 898 01:02:01.920 --> 01:02:07.920 Tesla in California and why the Federal Trades Commissioners investigating Tesla on complaints of false 899 01:02:08.000 --> 01:02:14.760 advertising. And it's not just Tesla, it's all of them. So understand. 900 01:02:14.960 --> 01:02:19.440 If you go into the process knowing that the advertised mileage is not achievable, 901 01:02:20.000 --> 01:02:22.800 I'm guessing you're gonna have a fun experience. I'm about five months into 902 01:02:22.840 --> 01:02:27.039 this whole thing, and I don't think I could go back. It's the 903 01:02:27.119 --> 01:02:30.039 most fun I've ever had a car. But range continues to be a problem. 904 01:02:30.079 --> 01:02:32.679 That's a good thing to travel that much, and you just like town. 905 01:02:32.880 --> 01:02:36.280 I travel all the time in California, but I gotta take the gas 906 01:02:36.360 --> 01:02:38.639 powered car. I actually could get over there and back with the Tesla. 907 01:02:38.679 --> 01:02:43.679 But you're you're talking about twenty minutes in Heel a band to charge, another 908 01:02:43.760 --> 01:02:46.519 twenty minutes in Yuma, and another twenty minutes in alcoholne you know it makes 909 01:02:47.039 --> 01:02:51.320 an extra hour. You're talking at least an extra hour to get there. 910 01:02:51.880 --> 01:02:53.400 If you can get in the gas powered car and stopping Yuma for gas, 911 01:02:53.400 --> 01:02:58.719 that's it. Why wouldn't you do that? Exactly? You have room for 912 01:02:58.760 --> 01:03:06.119 an extra car if you gross I do. Speaking of d v's, Elon 913 01:03:06.199 --> 01:03:09.039 Musk has been concerned about the cost of EV's, and Monday, the company 914 01:03:09.079 --> 01:03:14.199 announced they'll be building an EV in Germany that's going to sell for twenty seven 915 01:03:14.280 --> 01:03:19.360 thousand dollars. Cool. Cool. Speaking of Elon Musk, his Neuralink is 916 01:03:19.400 --> 01:03:22.920 looking for volunteers to take a chip of their brain out or their skull out, 917 01:03:22.960 --> 01:03:24.760 so they could put the chip in. How crazy is that? And 918 01:03:24.800 --> 01:03:29.159 they actually have people that want him to do that. A lot of people 919 01:03:29.199 --> 01:03:32.760 take out a chunk up your skull and replace it with a chip. It's 920 01:03:32.840 --> 01:03:36.800 like, so they can just do kind of like, isn't it mind controlling 921 01:03:36.800 --> 01:03:38.400 the sense of like they can do things with their mind? Yeah, like 922 01:03:38.480 --> 01:03:42.400 they can you can search, Yeah, you can search things with their mind. 923 01:03:42.599 --> 01:03:44.719 I just have to wonder what's wrong with your life that you would be 924 01:03:44.719 --> 01:03:47.920 willing to do. However, Dave I was just thinking about that if you 925 01:03:47.960 --> 01:03:52.400 were if we were in you know, the seventeen hundreds, everyone's on East 926 01:03:52.400 --> 01:03:57.119 coast and someone's telling you, hey, you can go across the country and 927 01:03:57.199 --> 01:04:00.800 you can get free lined land. Oh you just go to the organ you 928 01:04:00.840 --> 01:04:02.000 know, go to Oregon you get free land. Go to Oklahoma you get 929 01:04:02.000 --> 01:04:06.119 free land. All these crazy things, and you realize those people were pioneers, 930 01:04:06.239 --> 01:04:10.719 right. They risked everything, they risk their life. They're going somewhere 931 01:04:10.760 --> 01:04:14.559 where there's no law, there's no order, and really someone else controls that 932 01:04:14.639 --> 01:04:16.039 land right now. They have to protect themselves, and that is it's all 933 01:04:16.039 --> 01:04:18.239 word of mouth. You say, hey, there's golden California, and these 934 01:04:18.239 --> 01:04:21.360 people in Virginia are like, Okay, I'm going let's do it. You 935 01:04:21.360 --> 01:04:25.599 know. So I think that's always a human spirit. Now every human has 936 01:04:25.639 --> 01:04:29.199 it. I think the majority of humans don't, and it is sometimes irresponsible 937 01:04:29.239 --> 01:04:32.159 and leads to ruin, but for some people it leads to a lot of 938 01:04:32.159 --> 01:04:35.679 success. So I think it's just part of that human spirit of I want 939 01:04:35.679 --> 01:04:40.000 to be the first, I want to try something new. I'm okay with 940 01:04:40.039 --> 01:04:42.559 the risks that come along with it. When our client Mike shit't be in 941 01:04:42.599 --> 01:04:45.199 that article, I go, you got to be gidding me, really exactly, 942 01:04:45.239 --> 01:04:46.920 people that are willing to do this, Oh, certainly. I mean 943 01:04:47.079 --> 01:04:51.599 speaking of client articles. We always appreciate when clients sending articles because we like 944 01:04:51.679 --> 01:04:57.000 the engagement. You know, A couple of weeks ago talked about the real 945 01:04:57.079 --> 01:05:02.840 cost of electric vehicles and how it Obviously, when you're fueling your electric vehicle, 946 01:05:03.039 --> 01:05:08.199 only thirty three percent of it is really alternative because the electric grid that's 947 01:05:08.239 --> 01:05:13.280 sixty six percent of it still runs on fossil fuels. This is an interesting 948 01:05:13.320 --> 01:05:16.679 headline. Now, the headline says cost of fueling an electric vehicle is equivalent 949 01:05:16.760 --> 01:05:20.800 to seventeen dollars and thirty three cents per gallon. Now I looked into it 950 01:05:21.000 --> 01:05:26.000 this whole article, and I think about half of what they used as that 951 01:05:26.039 --> 01:05:30.400 seventeen thirty three is pretty debatable. You have the listeners an example of some 952 01:05:30.440 --> 01:05:35.239 of the silliness they're using here, Like one of them was federal and state 953 01:05:35.280 --> 01:05:42.480 EV buyer tax credits and rebates. So obviously these EV buyers are getting rebates, 954 01:05:42.880 --> 01:05:45.199 we as taxpayers are paying for that, so that should be factored into 955 01:05:45.239 --> 01:05:50.280 the cost of the overall vehicle, right, things like California and other states. 956 01:05:50.280 --> 01:05:55.119 They're extra mandates and credits that are on top of the federal and normal 957 01:05:55.159 --> 01:05:59.320 state credits. Something that is really interesting that I didn't really know about was 958 01:05:59.360 --> 01:06:02.079 the corporate average fuel economy the cave credits. You have know anything about that? 959 01:06:02.159 --> 01:06:06.719 Yeah, So the cave credits for people who don't know, is for 960 01:06:08.199 --> 01:06:13.960 these automakers, they have to have a certain amount of fuel economy for all 961 01:06:13.960 --> 01:06:17.519 their fleets of cars that they're producing. Now the FED wants to basically make 962 01:06:17.559 --> 01:06:24.000 them more towards I guess energy efficient would be the word, Yeah, something 963 01:06:24.039 --> 01:06:28.960 like that. So Tesla, which you can obviously the number one EVE producer, 964 01:06:29.360 --> 01:06:34.599 has the most CAVE credits because overall they produce producing all these energy efficient 965 01:06:34.679 --> 01:06:38.800 vehicles, so they have an abundance of these cave credits. Well, people 966 01:06:38.880 --> 01:06:42.280 like Toyota, for example, I don't know. I'm sure they're at a 967 01:06:42.320 --> 01:06:45.239 deficit because the majority of their cars they produce are still gas or semi hybrid, 968 01:06:45.360 --> 01:06:50.199 right, So they have to go out and actually buy credits from companies 969 01:06:50.239 --> 01:06:55.599 like Tesla who have an abundance of them to make to meet their CAVE standards. 970 01:06:55.719 --> 01:06:58.960 Big part of income, Yeah, in fact, one point seven to 971 01:06:58.960 --> 01:07:03.159 eight billion in twenty twenty two added to Tesla's bottom line just from Cave credits. 972 01:07:03.679 --> 01:07:10.639 So it's very interesting add that Cave credit on top of Tesla's energy chargers. 973 01:07:10.760 --> 01:07:13.440 Yeah, that you start to realize per cend of the company's revenue. 974 01:07:13.559 --> 01:07:15.480 Yeah, and then one point seven eight I don't know what percentage that is 975 01:07:15.519 --> 01:07:19.440 of the revenue, but it's probably a pretty big sum as well. You 976 01:07:19.480 --> 01:07:24.320 know, you start to see that Tesla's not just a car producer, right, 977 01:07:24.079 --> 01:07:28.800 right, But the idea of an electric vehicle only costing a dollar and 978 01:07:28.840 --> 01:07:32.679 twenty one cents per gallon is also a misnomber. And that's what the advertised 979 01:07:32.760 --> 01:07:36.960 kind of you're saving yourself so much money on gas compared to people who are 980 01:07:36.960 --> 01:07:40.679 out there paying four dollars a gown and you're paying one twenty one by just 981 01:07:40.719 --> 01:07:44.079 paying electric costs. Now, that's not true either, because you're really not 982 01:07:44.719 --> 01:07:47.559 lumping in all the external costs that you're charging, you know what I mean. 983 01:07:47.639 --> 01:07:51.639 So I think it's somewhere in a range of the middle, probably closer 984 01:07:51.639 --> 01:07:57.760 to like the average price the normal car pays. But I just I love 985 01:07:58.360 --> 01:08:01.440 bringing up different sides of the of the opinions of this whole space. It's 986 01:08:01.440 --> 01:08:06.800 a it's ever changing space. Obviously. The most incredible stat that I saw 987 01:08:06.800 --> 01:08:11.679 in this article, though, was Toyota estimates that the batteries from one EV 988 01:08:11.880 --> 01:08:16.279 power one EV battery can power ninety hybrids, which would reduce emissions thirty seven 989 01:08:16.359 --> 01:08:19.600 more times than just one EV would. I think the one thing that whenever 990 01:08:19.680 --> 01:08:23.479 I see and of course, like you say to the headline jumps off the 991 01:08:23.479 --> 01:08:26.880 page at just seventeen dollars a gallon, you know it's a real cost I've 992 01:08:26.920 --> 01:08:29.079 run and they start to look into it, and you go, this is 993 01:08:29.119 --> 01:08:32.199 just silly. The first thing I look at when I when I see an 994 01:08:32.279 --> 01:08:38.079 article like that is, Okay, who's writing this? What? What do 995 01:08:38.119 --> 01:08:43.279 they have a horse in this race? Is this a credible source? Okay? 996 01:08:43.319 --> 01:08:48.520 This Center for Public Policy a foundation, right is a right wing Texas 997 01:08:48.800 --> 01:08:57.239 think tank who's primary primarily funded by Exon and Chevron gee, and they're writing 998 01:08:57.319 --> 01:09:01.600 a negative article about electric vehicles right the same way as if you look at 999 01:09:01.680 --> 01:09:04.840 who wrote the one dollar twenty one cents per gallon? Absolutely no, and 1000 01:09:05.119 --> 01:09:09.640 I absolutely but I think it's important to the listeners out there that if you 1001 01:09:09.720 --> 01:09:13.920 see these types of things, and for whatever reason, uh, electric vehicles 1002 01:09:13.960 --> 01:09:17.319 have become somewhat political, and I wish they wouldn't because they're simply a new 1003 01:09:17.399 --> 01:09:19.920 don't even know if it's necessarily political, though, Dave, because think about 1004 01:09:19.920 --> 01:09:24.039 gold, right, when gold gets all this attention around it, all of 1005 01:09:24.039 --> 01:09:26.479 a sudden, people are talking shut up by bull because all these things are 1006 01:09:26.479 --> 01:09:29.760 getting sent out them, and it's just look at the fine print. Who's 1007 01:09:29.800 --> 01:09:32.520 selling this to you, right, the person who had they want to get 1008 01:09:32.600 --> 01:09:35.279 rid of it. So there's a reason they want to get rid of it 1009 01:09:36.000 --> 01:09:42.399 anyway, that the no matter what you're you're reading, if it's if it 1010 01:09:42.439 --> 01:09:45.640 seems far off, check the source, just check who wrote it. And 1011 01:09:45.159 --> 01:09:47.520 if maybe they've got a horse in the race. I mean, certainly it's 1012 01:09:47.560 --> 01:09:53.359 to the benefit of Chevron and Exxon for electric vehicles to not be get too 1013 01:09:53.399 --> 01:09:56.479 hot. Right, the cars were political for a little bit, so much 1014 01:09:56.520 --> 01:09:59.760 anymore, but they definitely wore A few years ago, I had a friend 1015 01:09:59.840 --> 01:10:02.640 said, I really if you were a left wing wackle, Yeah, not 1016 01:10:02.720 --> 01:10:06.399 a left wing wackle. It was strictly intellectual. There's the reason I got 1017 01:10:06.439 --> 01:10:10.119 it. It was intellectual. And now that I've had it for a while. 1018 01:10:10.159 --> 01:10:15.119 I really like it. I've got a neighbor who's a who's a strong 1019 01:10:15.199 --> 01:10:17.760 Democrat that supports a lot of the Democratic candidates, and he was giving me 1020 01:10:17.800 --> 01:10:21.159 crap the other day about something and I said, Hey, who has a 1021 01:10:21.199 --> 01:10:25.840 tesla in this neighborhood? He chuckled. Oh, he had gone to a 1022 01:10:25.840 --> 01:10:30.039 fundraiser with Bill Clinton last weekend and apparently the largest bank on Thursday got hacked. 1023 01:10:30.159 --> 01:10:33.239 You hear about this which one? Yeah, the largest bank in the 1024 01:10:33.239 --> 01:10:36.119 world. I didn't know that. Do you know who the largest bank in 1025 01:10:36.119 --> 01:10:39.000 the world. I didn't know this is the name. Do you know, 1026 01:10:39.079 --> 01:10:42.479 Dave, who's the largest bank in the world? ICBC? Oh? Really, 1027 01:10:42.560 --> 01:10:44.119 yeah, I've never heard of it. I would have stopt bank, 1028 01:10:44.159 --> 01:10:47.960 maybe say like JP Morgan, more of an investment bank type thing. Yeah, 1029 01:10:48.039 --> 01:10:50.800 they're huge, but either way. It was actually the US arm of 1030 01:10:50.880 --> 01:10:56.000 China's mega lender ICBC. It was hit by a ransomware attack and so all 1031 01:10:56.039 --> 01:10:58.920 their they do a lot of treasury purchases, they had to stop all their 1032 01:10:58.960 --> 01:11:00.960 treasury purchase can't all of them, And they actually had to use a USB 1033 01:11:01.079 --> 01:11:06.279 stick and manually transported across Manhattan to send settlement details on that day. So 1034 01:11:06.319 --> 01:11:10.760 it was a little fascinating story there. It doesn't really mean anything, though, 1035 01:11:11.000 --> 01:11:15.359 that's absolutely amazing. It means that no matter how secure you think you 1036 01:11:15.439 --> 01:11:17.720 are, people can get into it. Yeah, don't click the random links 1037 01:11:17.760 --> 01:11:21.800 in your emaough. They make those so real now they do. I got 1038 01:11:21.800 --> 01:11:25.720 two on Friday that just said the DOCU signed stuff that I had to sign. 1039 01:11:25.840 --> 01:11:29.399 Oh yeah, common ye, but I got too in more like an 1040 01:11:29.479 --> 01:11:33.560 hour. Yeah. Look what the return addresses on them? Another fake because 1041 01:11:33.560 --> 01:11:36.720 I have nothing to sign. Yeah. My Amazon Prime account's been canceled. 1042 01:11:36.800 --> 01:11:40.840 My Netflix has been canceled. You know, click here to fix it. 1043 01:11:40.920 --> 01:11:44.560 Oh yeah, right, yeah, that's what I'm gonna do. All right. 1044 01:11:45.760 --> 01:11:46.600 Well, next segment, we want to talk a little bit about the 1045 01:11:46.600 --> 01:11:48.880 Federal Reserve that came out, Not the Federal Reserve, sorry, i RS 1046 01:11:48.960 --> 01:11:51.640 came out with new text tables, so we'll have some fun. Yea through 1047 01:11:51.640 --> 01:11:54.960 all that tables, man, you can make a little bit more money. 1048 01:11:55.079 --> 01:11:58.119 Yeah, actually, yeah, go through all the deduction went down, which 1049 01:11:58.159 --> 01:12:00.079 is great. All right, guys, we'll be right back. This is 1050 01:12:00.079 --> 01:12:03.039 the Bunny Matter Show. As you know, we appreciate your listening. You 1051 01:12:03.119 --> 01:12:06.720 want more, just go to our website and go to the YouTube. You 1052 01:12:06.840 --> 01:12:11.439 find all the shows and the IP the podcast you can listen to any time 1053 01:12:11.479 --> 01:12:15.439 you want and go back and get some more information. We will be right 1054 01:12:15.479 --> 01:12:30.319 back. Say it's only a name. Welcome back, everybody. Money Matter 1055 01:12:30.399 --> 01:12:32.880 Show. Got a couple of segments left. Hey, guess what You can 1056 01:12:32.920 --> 01:12:36.119 make more money and pay less on taxes right now? That is true. 1057 01:12:36.199 --> 01:12:42.359 It looks like the IRIS increase taxable brackets by about five percent on the income 1058 01:12:42.479 --> 01:12:45.279 level. What that means is if you're at that ten percent income bracket instead 1059 01:12:45.279 --> 01:12:49.479 of eleven thousand, now it's at eleven than six hundred, and for twenty 1060 01:12:49.520 --> 01:12:53.119 two percent in sead of forty three, it's at forty seven. So basically 1061 01:12:53.159 --> 01:12:55.439 five percent for all the income bracks. That did a little bit of math 1062 01:12:55.680 --> 01:13:00.199 roughly around there, so you can make roughly about five percent still still be 1063 01:13:00.279 --> 01:13:02.279 in that same tax I would say probably around four percent just to be safe, 1064 01:13:02.840 --> 01:13:08.159 so you're make it about two fifty. You make a number twelve thousand, 1065 01:13:08.279 --> 01:13:11.560 five hundred and still being the same tax practice last year. Yeah, 1066 01:13:11.640 --> 01:13:14.199 yeah, no, yeah, exactly. So it is a nice thing. 1067 01:13:14.319 --> 01:13:16.600 We are going to be paying a little bit less. But it also we're 1068 01:13:16.640 --> 01:13:20.479 paying moreation, we're paying more taxes on, so security was paying more taxes 1069 01:13:20.520 --> 01:13:30.079 on. We all have an awfully lot more interest income. Yes, yeah, 1070 01:13:30.079 --> 01:13:34.479 we're probably should have. The standard deduction is also increasing. For married 1071 01:13:34.479 --> 01:13:39.199 couples, it's increasing the twenty nine thousand, two hundred. For individuals it's 1072 01:13:39.239 --> 01:13:42.760 at fourteen thousand, six hundred now, and for head of households it's up 1073 01:13:42.760 --> 01:13:46.239 to twenty one nine hundred. But just think about that, all the savings 1074 01:13:46.279 --> 01:13:50.840 in the country times five percent. Yeah, because last year was making nothing, 1075 01:13:50.960 --> 01:13:54.600 well we all know, we know, Dave, that's not true. 1076 01:13:55.119 --> 01:14:00.640 And because how many people have come in here with huge sums of money sitting 1077 01:14:00.680 --> 01:14:02.920 and checkings, huge sums of money sitting and savings, and they're saying, 1078 01:14:03.079 --> 01:14:06.439 I feel like I should be any more. Yeah, you should be, 1079 01:14:06.439 --> 01:14:11.600 because a lot of those people just have not reacted. But the point is, 1080 01:14:11.720 --> 01:14:15.760 okay, let's be conservative. Let's say three percent more on every dollar 1081 01:14:15.920 --> 01:14:18.039 in savings in this country. Right, it's going to be revenue. However, 1082 01:14:19.039 --> 01:14:23.479 we're also paying that out on the treasury side, which who picks step 1083 01:14:23.800 --> 01:14:27.199 day. We're not going to balance the budget. I got the interest on 1084 01:14:27.239 --> 01:14:30.479 the back of interest, you know, because we're still paying it. We're 1085 01:14:30.479 --> 01:14:32.520 getting it, but we're paying it right back. Youtic. We're going to 1086 01:14:32.600 --> 01:14:39.239 balance the budget. It had touch spending and spending and spending this shop. 1087 01:14:39.319 --> 01:14:43.600 There is an increase in the gift tax that you can do. The annual 1088 01:14:43.640 --> 01:14:46.159 exclusion, which we learned from John isn't really as important as we thought it 1089 01:14:46.239 --> 01:14:50.479 was. They want you to report if it's over now eighteen thousand for twenty 1090 01:14:50.520 --> 01:14:54.760 twenty, eighteen seventeen, Yes, okay, but we learned from John it's 1091 01:14:54.760 --> 01:14:59.000 really just reporting that. It's not necessarily that your taxes or anything. Right 1092 01:14:59.279 --> 01:15:02.840 talk with the tax Any person in this country can give eighteen thousand dollars to 1093 01:15:03.000 --> 01:15:06.960 any other person period and you don't have to be a family member. And 1094 01:15:06.960 --> 01:15:10.600 if you and your husband, if you're married, you can give thirty six 1095 01:15:10.680 --> 01:15:14.720 thousand dollars per year to anybody, which to me doesn't make any sense because 1096 01:15:14.760 --> 01:15:17.199 this what's the six hundred dollars Zell thing? Is that a thing the six 1097 01:15:17.239 --> 01:15:20.439 hundred dollars like if you send someone more than six hundred dollars then it has 1098 01:15:20.479 --> 01:15:24.920 to be reported or like they're trying to do a six hundred dollars thing because 1099 01:15:24.960 --> 01:15:29.039 they're trying to get people off VENMO to make a bit like who are doing 1100 01:15:29.119 --> 01:15:31.159 business off that? Then? Right, So if it's six hundred dollars constantly 1101 01:15:31.199 --> 01:15:35.359 or something like that, they make it reported as business. Remember it's only 1102 01:15:35.319 --> 01:15:41.199 a gift tax, so you can reduce your own your own a state later 1103 01:15:41.279 --> 01:15:45.600 on. The basic exclusion amount for estates now is going to increase in twenty 1104 01:15:45.680 --> 01:15:48.319 twenty four to thirteen point six million. That's up from twelve point nine million, 1105 01:15:48.479 --> 01:15:51.319 right, and then eventually it drops if they don't make that permanent, 1106 01:15:53.000 --> 01:15:56.479 right, because in twenty twenty six, I believe there's the sunset, is 1107 01:15:56.479 --> 01:16:00.159 it twenty six, twenty five or twenty six, will about that John to 1108 01:16:00.199 --> 01:16:03.039 be to reduce it by five million dollars. Yeah, and then in two 1109 01:16:03.119 --> 01:16:08.520 years and twenty five we get the reset and the tax brackets if nothing's done. 1110 01:16:08.560 --> 01:16:12.359 So for all you Republicans probably hope that Trump gets in so it doesn't 1111 01:16:12.399 --> 01:16:16.760 get reset, but not just independent Republicans. Yeah, gets it. Yeah, 1112 01:16:16.760 --> 01:16:19.520 I just I think I'm I you know, I think I'm with you 1113 01:16:19.600 --> 01:16:23.880 that I'm just tired of being weak. Yeah, I'm tired of being a 1114 01:16:23.880 --> 01:16:27.600 weak country. I'm tired of people taking advantage. I'm tired of Hamas think 1115 01:16:27.600 --> 01:16:30.359 and then get away with what they did. I'm tired of Russia and North 1116 01:16:30.439 --> 01:16:34.239 Korea and trying to think and they can get away with what they're doing because 1117 01:16:34.239 --> 01:16:38.720 we're so weak. But it's tough, though, Dave, because you just 1118 01:16:38.720 --> 01:16:43.199 said we're weak, but that us not allowing those people to do that. 1119 01:16:43.279 --> 01:16:46.199 I agree, it's horrible, but that means us sending money, and the 1120 01:16:46.279 --> 01:16:50.720 problem is been us sending money. No, I do it anyway. Or 1121 01:16:50.760 --> 01:16:57.560 someone's sitting in you're pointed death of yeah, the White House that you're scared 1122 01:16:57.560 --> 01:17:00.000 of, the death of one the death of this guy. Let's just see 1123 01:17:00.079 --> 01:17:02.439 if Trump was in right now what he would be doing. When they're saying 1124 01:17:02.439 --> 01:17:08.079 we fully support Israel. Okay, all your all your people that think that 1125 01:17:08.119 --> 01:17:12.600 you're going to go ahead and protest against Israel and genocide are the Jews and 1126 01:17:12.600 --> 01:17:15.520 and all that will be considered crimes. I also can't imagine it would have 1127 01:17:15.560 --> 01:17:18.399 never happened, because the piece of cord would still be in place. And 1128 01:17:18.479 --> 01:17:21.319 not only that, but I think I don't wouldn't say what happened. A 1129 01:17:21.439 --> 01:17:28.279 less probability of it happening and wouldn't have any economic ability to go ahead exactly 1130 01:17:28.319 --> 01:17:32.079 fund and that that was their majority funder was Iran. They have there. 1131 01:17:32.199 --> 01:17:35.600 I just hope that that this continues to be about where it is now and 1132 01:17:35.720 --> 01:17:40.760 just until they get Hamas cleaned up and we get on with our lives. 1133 01:17:41.000 --> 01:17:43.800 But they're they're doing it. They're taking what about a third of the tunnels 1134 01:17:43.840 --> 01:17:46.720 now have been destroyed. I don't understand. They're gonna wipe out an entire 1135 01:17:47.000 --> 01:17:50.000 area. Yeah, okay, and then they have to build it back up. 1136 01:17:50.159 --> 01:17:55.039 Look at the Ukraine, it's the same thing. It's like, I 1137 01:17:55.079 --> 01:17:57.840 don't I don't get it. I mean, why don't we keep repeating ourselves 1138 01:17:57.880 --> 01:18:01.479 And I say this all the time. If we didn't have these governments, 1139 01:18:02.239 --> 01:18:06.960 we wouldn't have these wars. And you know that Godza is not going to 1140 01:18:08.000 --> 01:18:13.239 rebuild Gaza. No Israel will. It'll be Israel Israel oil. And they're 1141 01:18:13.239 --> 01:18:15.720 going to try to say, well, make it its own state. Hell 1142 01:18:15.800 --> 01:18:19.159 no, okay, listen, you can do this, say we'll still while 1143 01:18:19.199 --> 01:18:23.760 you come in. This is your country. We're not going through the mistakes 1144 01:18:23.760 --> 01:18:27.199 we've done again, We're not. And you can come in and work. 1145 01:18:27.279 --> 01:18:29.920 You can be part of what we do, just like they do. Now 1146 01:18:30.000 --> 01:18:34.159 put your own government in and not Hamas. We have a large percentage of 1147 01:18:34.199 --> 01:18:43.039 the israel population is Hamas. And also I'm sorry I missfolk palest Indians. 1148 01:18:43.039 --> 01:18:45.880 But this is also a big deal. If you compare Ukraine size as the 1149 01:18:45.880 --> 01:18:49.079 country compared to the size of Gaza, right, we're talking about very vastly 1150 01:18:49.119 --> 01:18:54.079 different sizes here. Those thint Gaza have a ton of oil too. I 1151 01:18:54.079 --> 01:18:56.600 don't know, I don't think so. I don't think about it having a 1152 01:18:56.640 --> 01:19:00.439 fifty plus billion dollars with oil or something like that. Ground said. But 1153 01:19:00.560 --> 01:19:04.560 remember Gaza, no, no, no, not Gaza government or whatever it 1154 01:19:04.600 --> 01:19:06.760 is. But like in the ground, is that what they're fighting over the 1155 01:19:06.840 --> 01:19:13.640 land? Keep in mind, Gaza is about the geographic size of Tucson, 1156 01:19:14.279 --> 01:19:17.199 right, and that's it's going to be. It's still horrible and not saying 1157 01:19:17.239 --> 01:19:20.880 that, but it's going to be easier to rebuild, which is one hundred 1158 01:19:20.880 --> 01:19:26.279 and seventy five miles Tucson's metros two twenty five two sons bigger than Gozza. 1159 01:19:26.960 --> 01:19:31.079 The metro, the metro layout. Dean of Tucson, Yeah, and I 1160 01:19:31.079 --> 01:19:33.239 know We've talked about the couple of times, but all these people that are 1161 01:19:33.279 --> 01:19:36.039 like, that's the biggest open air prison in the world. Last time I 1162 01:19:36.119 --> 01:19:41.119 checked, North Korea is a little a little bit bigger than Gozza. So 1163 01:19:42.000 --> 01:19:45.119 absolutely, Hey, did you see that We talked a couple of weeks ago 1164 01:19:45.159 --> 01:19:48.680 about Instacart. Uh, this is remember we we couldn't figure out what why 1165 01:19:48.720 --> 01:19:53.640 we needed instacart. They delivered groceries. Yeah, the grocery stores are delivering. 1166 01:19:54.159 --> 01:19:58.239 There's a lot of people delivering groceries, but the grocery delivery cover. 1167 01:19:58.359 --> 01:20:01.560 They came public in mid September at thirty bucks a share immediately jumped to forty 1168 01:20:01.600 --> 01:20:05.439 three, which is where we kind of started scratching our heads. Over the 1169 01:20:05.479 --> 01:20:12.439 next few weeks, it dropped down to twenty three and had been slowly edging 1170 01:20:12.520 --> 01:20:15.520 higher until Thursday, when they plunged back to the low on disappointing quarter, 1171 01:20:15.800 --> 01:20:19.520 and Jim Kramer said the grocery shopping is not that big a problem for most 1172 01:20:19.640 --> 01:20:25.159 people. They did get several upgrades on Friday, But isn't it amazing how 1173 01:20:25.159 --> 01:20:29.199 it goes from thirty jumps to forty three and then from forty three back to 1174 01:20:29.239 --> 01:20:31.159 twenty three, just like that. Yeah, and that's I mean, that's 1175 01:20:31.159 --> 01:20:33.119 the biggest player in that game right now. But I mean, like you 1176 01:20:33.119 --> 01:20:36.000 said, it's getting saturated by Dean. You and I were in the business 1177 01:20:36.000 --> 01:20:41.720 when krispy Kreme was all that, right, and then they finally I'll tell 1178 01:20:41.760 --> 01:20:44.840 you what krispy Kreme. I remember, it was so special. The wholesalers 1179 01:20:44.880 --> 01:20:47.439 would bring Krispy Kreme, and the life insurance guy it would bring krispy Kreme. 1180 01:20:47.520 --> 01:20:50.880 You wanted to impress a broker's firm or a bank, you know, 1181 01:20:50.960 --> 01:20:57.359 you bring him krispy Kreme. That was special. About two three four years 1182 01:20:57.399 --> 01:21:01.239 after this broke, I went into Walgreens one and there was a display of 1183 01:21:01.359 --> 01:21:06.800 Krispy Kreme in Walgreens. I said, well, there goes the uniqueness of 1184 01:21:06.840 --> 01:21:10.760 it. Came back to the office the next day, sold every share of 1185 01:21:10.840 --> 01:21:13.960 Krispy Kreme we had, and of course to that point it went bankrupt. 1186 01:21:14.079 --> 01:21:19.520 Ultimately went bankrupt, became public again in twenty twenty one, and immediately jumped 1187 01:21:19.560 --> 01:21:23.359 to twenty one dollars. In the last two and a half years, it's 1188 01:21:23.399 --> 01:21:27.520 been as low as ten, been hanging out in the low teens. It 1189 01:21:27.640 --> 01:21:30.720 was down seven percent on Thursday after their most recent quarter. Disappointed in that. 1190 01:21:30.760 --> 01:21:35.680 Well, here we go again. So TLT, which we have familiarity 1191 01:21:35.760 --> 01:21:40.399 here with, we've started in a small position in there is For people who 1192 01:21:40.399 --> 01:21:45.359 don't know, TLT is a US Treasury twenty plus year Treasury bond ETF. 1193 01:21:45.479 --> 01:21:48.439 So we're talking about bond funds and why it's a problem to be in it 1194 01:21:48.479 --> 01:21:53.319 when interstrates are going up, but when instrates are going down, it's actually 1195 01:21:53.399 --> 01:21:56.520 a really nice place to be because not only do you get the interest of 1196 01:21:56.520 --> 01:21:59.319 the ETF, but you will also I mean sorry, the dividend of the 1197 01:21:59.319 --> 01:22:01.800 ETF, but you will also get the gain if interest rates go down on 1198 01:22:01.840 --> 01:22:06.159 the bond itself, because longer dated bonds will appreciate more when interest rates go 1199 01:22:06.279 --> 01:22:12.800 down than shorter dated bonds. So the reason I'm bringing all this up is 1200 01:22:12.920 --> 01:22:19.760 TLT is actually the third most inflowed fund ETF this year. Interesting the top 1201 01:22:19.800 --> 01:22:25.560 two V and IVV, which are both S and P five hundred ETFs. 1202 01:22:25.720 --> 01:22:30.439 So you start to look at there's a large amount of money going into TLT. 1203 01:22:30.640 --> 01:22:33.479 A lot of money managers or a lot of institutions are starting to hedge 1204 01:22:33.479 --> 01:22:39.359 and getting long duration added back into their portfolios. Now. It's been a 1205 01:22:39.399 --> 01:22:43.640 falling knife trade for a lot of people lately, and we've kind of been 1206 01:22:43.640 --> 01:22:46.479 part of it, but knowing that when its trades reverse here, it's gonna 1207 01:22:46.479 --> 01:22:49.279 be a really nice way to hedge the portfolio, because honestly, if we 1208 01:22:49.319 --> 01:22:53.159 do see a big drop in interest rates, we probably should see a big 1209 01:22:53.239 --> 01:22:57.960 drop in stocks, and that appreciation the TLT will help offset some of that. 1210 01:22:58.239 --> 01:23:00.960 We talked a lot about how we went to all short term securities in 1211 01:23:01.000 --> 01:23:05.840 our fixed income side in March of twenty one, and we were about six 1212 01:23:05.880 --> 01:23:10.880 months early, maybe nine months early, and we were sitting there not getting 1213 01:23:11.239 --> 01:23:14.560 the level of interest that you get in longer term bonds, but feeling like 1214 01:23:14.600 --> 01:23:15.760 we were going to be in the right place. Interest rates to weere zero, 1215 01:23:15.800 --> 01:23:19.720 they had to go higher, and sure enough than twenty two they exploded 1216 01:23:19.800 --> 01:23:25.720 higher, and our individual short term bonds held in there. We didn't lose 1217 01:23:25.920 --> 01:23:30.800 much of anything. I think on average, we probably preserved ten percent of 1218 01:23:30.319 --> 01:23:36.760 our account what you would have lost most people have a thirty or forty percent 1219 01:23:36.840 --> 01:23:43.079 position in fixed income. I was down twenty percent. I'm figuring we saved 1220 01:23:43.079 --> 01:23:47.159 about ten percent of the firm by that move. Now we've gotten up to 1221 01:23:47.159 --> 01:23:50.520 where interest rates are at a sixteen year high. Before they were at a 1222 01:23:50.600 --> 01:23:54.880 multi decade low, at a multi decade low. I don't want to own 1223 01:23:54.960 --> 01:23:59.239 bonds at a sixteen year high. I want to start to buy a little 1224 01:23:59.239 --> 01:24:01.439 bit of that teen year high. And so we bought one and a half 1225 01:24:01.479 --> 01:24:04.079 percent. Then it went a little higher, but another one and a half 1226 01:24:04.119 --> 01:24:08.680 percent. So we do have a position in TLT Right now. We're slightly 1227 01:24:08.760 --> 01:24:15.319 underwater because rates have stayed pretty high, but I think that that that's something 1228 01:24:15.319 --> 01:24:18.319 that you can look at. Don't don't be too short term right now. 1229 01:24:18.319 --> 01:24:23.039 I've got a couple of clients that are just rolling ninety day t bills. 1230 01:24:23.279 --> 01:24:28.399 When interest rates do start to fall, and Goldman Sachs believes they will this 1231 01:24:28.520 --> 01:24:31.880 year, you're going to want to be in a little bit longer dated paper. 1232 01:24:32.159 --> 01:24:34.399 You're going to take a you want to lock those in. I'd say 1233 01:24:34.439 --> 01:24:38.960 right now, I lock some of this yield in for at least five years. 1234 01:24:39.479 --> 01:24:42.960 Yeah, coming up to the top of the segment, we'll be right 1235 01:24:43.000 --> 01:24:45.359 back. This is the moneymout of show. We all appreciate that you listen 1236 01:24:47.920 --> 01:24:56.439 say it's only a man. Welcome back, everybody. It's the moneymout of 1237 01:24:56.520 --> 01:25:00.920 shell talked about a lot of stuff today. Yeah, and the most important 1238 01:25:00.920 --> 01:25:05.800 thing is to remind everyone that we got a Federal Employee Benefits workshop going on 1239 01:25:05.800 --> 01:25:11.920 on December thirteenth at Tucson Association Relatives here and tuson. So please go to 1240 01:25:11.920 --> 01:25:14.680 our website Greenberg Financial dot com. A big pop up will pop up. 1241 01:25:14.720 --> 01:25:17.039 You can't learn more. We sent to our Federal Employees page. You can 1242 01:25:17.119 --> 01:25:19.439 learn all about what we do for federal employees and at the bottom of the 1243 01:25:19.439 --> 01:25:24.680 page you can click register and it you'll get directed to our event bright page 1244 01:25:24.920 --> 01:25:28.279 have all the information about the event. You can register. It's completely free 1245 01:25:28.359 --> 01:25:30.640 and you can also ask your agency for Form S F one to eighty two 1246 01:25:30.680 --> 01:25:34.600 and possibly get a paid day off for attending the event as well. Not 1247 01:25:34.640 --> 01:25:36.560 only go ahead, No, I was gonna say. Yeah, it's an 1248 01:25:36.600 --> 01:25:42.039 all day retirement seminar for federal employees and it goes into details and depths of 1249 01:25:42.119 --> 01:25:45.239 all the different avenue you can take and everything with it. You know, 1250 01:25:45.279 --> 01:25:48.279 and if you're listening to the show and happen to know a federal employe, 1251 01:25:48.319 --> 01:25:54.960 because the only reason not to attend this if you're nearing retirement of the federal 1252 01:25:54.960 --> 01:25:58.239 employee is because you don't know about it. I mean, that is the 1253 01:25:58.279 --> 01:26:00.479 only reason that you wouldn't go to this. So if you know someone, 1254 01:26:00.479 --> 01:26:02.640 if you have a family member, if you have a neighbor, if you 1255 01:26:02.680 --> 01:26:08.720 have somebody in your life who's a federal employee who's nearing retirement, please tell 1256 01:26:08.760 --> 01:26:12.239 them about this. Please have them get a hold of us, no obligation, 1257 01:26:12.720 --> 01:26:16.000 a great seminar, free launch, free financial plan, get them on 1258 01:26:16.039 --> 01:26:20.880 the right track. Let them know that this is coming. Because I have 1259 01:26:21.359 --> 01:26:26.720 a gallon my church who's a federal employee who's been talking about retirement. I 1260 01:26:26.760 --> 01:26:29.479 mentioned a erching. Oh it's great, you know, sign me up. 1261 01:26:29.560 --> 01:26:33.319 Let's do this. Do that for your friends, do that for your relatives, 1262 01:26:33.560 --> 01:26:36.840 for your neighbor. Let them know this thing is coming. So I 1263 01:26:36.880 --> 01:26:43.319 had an interesting comparison I saw last yesterday on CNBC where they were talking about 1264 01:26:43.479 --> 01:26:48.159 how the Nasdaq for a long while didn't really have an ETF that was popular 1265 01:26:48.399 --> 01:26:55.159 that was used by money managers until QQQ was first established in nineteen ninety nine. 1266 01:26:56.319 --> 01:27:02.159 When that happened, the anticipation of that QQQ being accessible to the public, 1267 01:27:02.439 --> 01:27:05.359 you saw a huge run up in the Nasdaq, which is kind of 1268 01:27:05.359 --> 01:27:09.600 a misnomber because also in that time was a dot com bubble yep. But 1269 01:27:09.640 --> 01:27:14.399 the reason I bring that up is once QQQ became online, the Nasdaq took 1270 01:27:14.439 --> 01:27:16.840 off, and the QQQ was a large part of that because it gave an 1271 01:27:16.920 --> 01:27:25.039 easier access to the index itself. Now the comparison is the Bitcoin spot ETF. 1272 01:27:25.479 --> 01:27:29.880 We've seen this big run up in anticipation of the black Rock ETF and 1273 01:27:29.880 --> 01:27:33.399 it's the spot black Rock ETF that they're trying to file with the s SEC 1274 01:27:33.439 --> 01:27:38.279 says that they're possibly going to be approving it here any week here soon, 1275 01:27:38.399 --> 01:27:41.680 so we've seen a huge run up. It's up six percent again this week. 1276 01:27:43.119 --> 01:27:46.159 Now. We also saw I think was Ethereum had a huge week, 1277 01:27:46.439 --> 01:27:50.319 and it was because Blackrock also said that they're going to be looking for a 1278 01:27:50.359 --> 01:27:57.039 trust. They want to open up a trust ETF for for ethereum as well, 1279 01:27:57.079 --> 01:28:00.039 So they had a really big week outperformed Bitcoin even because of it. 1280 01:28:00.319 --> 01:28:03.720 Yeah, I noticed that a fifty two week high on bitcoin. I believe, 1281 01:28:04.359 --> 01:28:06.279 I do believe, Yeah, I do believe. It's a fit two 1282 01:28:06.319 --> 01:28:10.199 week high. I mean, I think it's up eighty percent on the year. 1283 01:28:10.479 --> 01:28:14.159 That's amazing. It's doing its thing. One of our holdings, a 1284 01:28:14.279 --> 01:28:18.279 Win Resorts reported a casino operator, reported revenue and that had income above expectations. 1285 01:28:18.760 --> 01:28:23.720 Stock opened ten percent lower at a ten month low on Friday. Some 1286 01:28:23.800 --> 01:28:29.319 saw the growth in the Macau business was a little disappointing. Remember remember the 1287 01:28:29.359 --> 01:28:33.159 meme stocks. Yeah, AMC was probably one of the biggest meme stocks. 1288 01:28:33.159 --> 01:28:38.399 That was one of the first meme stocks, the theater company. They jumped 1289 01:28:38.399 --> 01:28:42.279 as high as three hundred and ninety three dollars a share in July of twenty 1290 01:28:42.319 --> 01:28:47.840 one. They plunged fourteen percent on Thursday to close at an all time low 1291 01:28:48.359 --> 01:28:53.600 after announcing they're going to issue more shares as they battled the stay afloat stock's 1292 01:28:53.600 --> 01:28:57.680 what eight dollars from three to ninety three. I don't look at it every 1293 01:28:57.760 --> 01:29:00.920 day. I don't know. They did sell some stock at the elevator levels, 1294 01:29:00.920 --> 01:29:05.760 but apparently not enough considering their business is dying. Yeah, it's just 1295 01:29:05.920 --> 01:29:10.079 I mean, it's sad to see, but well, talking about bankruptcy is 1296 01:29:10.159 --> 01:29:14.000 it sounds like a game Sea's headed for one. We work got decided to 1297 01:29:14.000 --> 01:29:17.119 finally throw in the towel and that business done. They had a whole documentary 1298 01:29:17.119 --> 01:29:21.439 about the owner being some kind of crazy like cultish leader. Yes, yes, 1299 01:29:21.479 --> 01:29:26.279 I remember that very inch. I can't think of forty seven dollars that 1300 01:29:26.319 --> 01:29:30.600 company just tanked in three forty seven billions to nothing. Yep, right goodness 1301 01:29:30.640 --> 01:29:33.560 and talking about bankruptcy. Is a total of fifty companies filed for bankruptcy in 1302 01:29:33.600 --> 01:29:39.640 October. That's down from sixty one in September. But we're still on pace 1303 01:29:39.720 --> 01:29:42.920 to have the same amount of bankruptcies we saw in twenty twenty, which is 1304 01:29:42.920 --> 01:29:45.359 about double that we saw in twenty twenty two, and will equal the same 1305 01:29:45.399 --> 01:29:48.880 amount of bankruptcies we saw in twenty eleven. So companies are having trouble. 1306 01:29:48.880 --> 01:29:53.279 We're not hearing about bankruptcies as much, but obviously we work. Other companies 1307 01:29:53.279 --> 01:29:56.399 are throwing in the towel here this year, yeah, we are. We 1308 01:29:56.479 --> 01:30:00.560 are still seeing economic growth, but it is at a slower pace. I 1309 01:30:00.600 --> 01:30:03.760 will say that quarterly earnings that have been released over the last few weeks have 1310 01:30:03.920 --> 01:30:08.680 generally been better than expected, and if you're not better than expected, you 1311 01:30:08.760 --> 01:30:15.479 get hammered. The slide is like when Friday down ten percent with a good 1312 01:30:15.520 --> 01:30:19.960 report because it wasn't quite good enough, you know, and I think you 1313 01:30:20.039 --> 01:30:23.640 have to watch. It's kind of like that Eli Lilly. You know, 1314 01:30:23.680 --> 01:30:28.840 they hit an all time high when the FDA approved their new weight loss drug, 1315 01:30:29.520 --> 01:30:34.039 and the next day it had its worst day in five years. You 1316 01:30:34.119 --> 01:30:38.760 kind of start looking at that and you go, wait a second, this 1317 01:30:39.039 --> 01:30:45.359 is a drug company. They're selling it ninety times earnings even if the earnings 1318 01:30:45.399 --> 01:30:47.199 were to double. And this is a big company, So getting a big 1319 01:30:47.239 --> 01:30:54.079 company like that earnings to double not easy, right. But let's say this 1320 01:30:54.199 --> 01:31:00.199 drug becomes one of the greatest things ever and it actually doubles the earning for 1321 01:31:00.279 --> 01:31:05.880 the company, it's still forty five times earnings, which is ludicrous for a 1322 01:31:05.960 --> 01:31:09.640 drug company. So I mean, I think that may have been some of 1323 01:31:09.680 --> 01:31:13.479 the reasons for the pullback on Thursday, but it was. It was a 1324 01:31:13.560 --> 01:31:15.640 huge pullback. And it also you know, you've got that by the by 1325 01:31:15.680 --> 01:31:19.000 the by the rumor, sell the news. You know, you bid the 1326 01:31:19.039 --> 01:31:24.239 stock up. It's one of the hottest stocks all year and hits an all 1327 01:31:24.319 --> 01:31:29.840 time high on the announcement and then kabang down it comes you got a lot 1328 01:31:29.840 --> 01:31:33.239 of competition. It's an expensive stock. This new drug that they're they're going 1329 01:31:33.279 --> 01:31:40.800 to market is supposed to be all that dean, but at what price. 1330 01:31:41.760 --> 01:31:44.800 AMD in the video had a huge run up this week, and it's looking 1331 01:31:44.880 --> 01:31:48.359 like the semiconductors are having a nice run here. However, my head remembers 1332 01:31:48.439 --> 01:31:53.439 the TSMC report couple. I think it's about two months ago. At this 1333 01:31:53.439 --> 01:31:57.079 point, they're saying that they're experiencing kind of a a not a backlog, 1334 01:31:57.119 --> 01:32:00.800 but the inventories are increasing for them, and so I'm one during if there's 1335 01:32:00.840 --> 01:32:04.800 really that level of demand that investors are pricing into the stock, because we 1336 01:32:04.880 --> 01:32:11.239 know semiconductors pees are just as crazy if they are. Taiwan Sammy reported a 1337 01:32:11.239 --> 01:32:15.000 good quarter, which is encouraging for cell phone with Apple, it's encouraging for 1338 01:32:15.079 --> 01:32:20.760 Qualcomm that that translates well for those two companies. I think it's important. 1339 01:32:20.800 --> 01:32:25.039 I think the video will run right up into its earnings because people are gonna 1340 01:32:25.039 --> 01:32:29.560 expect blowout earnings and then you'll see the people sell off afterwards, no matter 1341 01:32:29.600 --> 01:32:30.920 what the earnings are. No, I agree with you, it could be 1342 01:32:30.960 --> 01:32:33.479 kind of a lily thing, you know, I mean, what price, 1343 01:32:34.520 --> 01:32:40.199 aren't most of the targets on in video around five hundred and fifty in there 1344 01:32:40.239 --> 01:32:43.760 now five fifty to six fifty. Yea, so got a ways to run. 1345 01:32:43.960 --> 01:32:46.199 Literally, he's the lowest I saw somewhere in there. Yeah, Lily's 1346 01:32:46.239 --> 01:32:54.479 average average analyst prices around six thirty, which is where it got so plug 1347 01:32:54.520 --> 01:32:59.560 Power remember plug Power probably traded plug Power Power yeays, I think is any 1348 01:32:59.720 --> 01:33:02.319 is any broke it that hasn't traded. Plug Power Company spent the last ten 1349 01:33:02.399 --> 01:33:06.960 years around two dollars a year. Jumped to seventy five bucks in early twenty 1350 01:33:08.000 --> 01:33:14.039 twenty one on growing talk about hydrogen cars. Stock drop six dollars at the 1351 01:33:14.039 --> 01:33:18.039 open. Excuse me? Stock dropped to six dollars at the open on Friday 1352 01:33:18.199 --> 01:33:25.000 on disappoint a disappointing quarter. The interesting part about hydrogen cars is that there's 1353 01:33:25.039 --> 01:33:30.560 only sixty five hydrogen gas stations in the entire country, and sixty four of 1354 01:33:30.560 --> 01:33:36.359 them are in California. One of them's in Hawaii. Imagine if we've got 1355 01:33:36.359 --> 01:33:40.800 a hydrogen car in Hawaii, I have to go to the gas station. 1356 01:33:42.439 --> 01:33:45.960 I think CNBC is going to look to hire Dave. How's that as their 1357 01:33:45.039 --> 01:33:50.239 car expert here Eb's hydrogen. Yeah, is good at it? Well, 1358 01:33:50.359 --> 01:33:54.560 yes, I think look to hire them. You know when my when my 1359 01:33:54.680 --> 01:33:58.520 least expired and one of my least expired, well, my least expired, 1360 01:33:58.520 --> 01:34:01.880 and I got to tell it really was an intellectual thing. It wasn't. 1361 01:34:01.880 --> 01:34:05.359 I wasn't trying to save the planet. I wasn't. It was really just 1362 01:34:05.399 --> 01:34:10.199 trying to understand. You heard so much good things and so many bad things. 1363 01:34:10.560 --> 01:34:14.960 I wanted to experience it. It's new technology and I wanted to just 1364 01:34:15.000 --> 01:34:18.600 see what it was like. And there's good things about it, and there's 1365 01:34:18.640 --> 01:34:21.760 negative things about it. I would say the only real negative thing is the 1366 01:34:23.119 --> 01:34:26.760 is the range, and it's that's a significant problem. You could have the 1367 01:34:26.800 --> 01:34:29.159 greatest car in the world. If you can't take it anywhere, it kind 1368 01:34:29.159 --> 01:34:31.720 of doesn't matter. Right, Well, electricity goes out in the house and 1369 01:34:31.760 --> 01:34:34.239 you didn't plug in your car the night before. Yeah, but within two 1370 01:34:34.319 --> 01:34:38.199 years the car will be able to run the house. So if my electricity 1371 01:34:38.199 --> 01:34:40.720 goes out in my house, I plug it into the car and electricity comes 1372 01:34:40.720 --> 01:34:43.159 back on. The biggest innovation is going to be a stake and like at 1373 01:34:43.159 --> 01:34:45.600 the sun roof to be solar and it charges white drive. I think the 1374 01:34:45.600 --> 01:34:48.920 biggest innovation is going to be a toilet can pull off this solid state battery 1375 01:34:48.960 --> 01:34:54.039 thing that's got a thousand mile range with a ten minute charge. That's going 1376 01:34:54.079 --> 01:34:56.520 to change the world right there, That'll changed the world. Yeah, but 1377 01:34:56.560 --> 01:34:59.640 you still got to think about input costs. Just because an output is so 1378 01:34:59.640 --> 01:35:01.640 beautif well, doesn't mean it's can you be usable or scalable if the input 1379 01:35:01.640 --> 01:35:04.119 costs are not feasible? I'm not sure what you know what, guys, 1380 01:35:04.479 --> 01:35:09.079 you're like way behind all. I just just look at the jets j I 1381 01:35:09.119 --> 01:35:13.239 know you're going there we go, the flying cars coming. Okay, we've 1382 01:35:13.239 --> 01:35:15.119 got them. They're gonna come, and that'd be that'll wrap up the whole 1383 01:35:15.199 --> 01:35:19.600 Jetson series. We've got the computers, we've got We've got the rumba with 1384 01:35:19.680 --> 01:35:24.000 this, the may there they go cleaning the floors, we got the fast 1385 01:35:24.039 --> 01:35:28.960 food people. Just what was like in the secondies? What the Jetson's in 1386 01:35:29.000 --> 01:35:32.039 the seventies, sixties, sixties and seventies. And they didn't predict neur link 1387 01:35:32.079 --> 01:35:35.039 though, our client Mike sent me up sent me a yeah, they might 1388 01:35:35.079 --> 01:35:38.880 have. When when George went to some one of his things, and they 1389 01:35:38.960 --> 01:35:42.239 might they put those things on the head. The Simpsons probably did the biggest 1390 01:35:42.239 --> 01:35:45.199 one. David was the one with to the TV. Remember they hit it. 1391 01:35:45.239 --> 01:35:47.159 Then you see the person, not the TV. The take time. 1392 01:35:47.279 --> 01:35:50.800 Yeah, face FaceTime. They just think about all the things that they had. 1393 01:35:51.039 --> 01:35:55.439 Yeah. Our client Mike sent me a link on flying cars Thursday. 1394 01:35:55.760 --> 01:35:59.079 They're actually the flying car. Yeah. Actually, if you want to be 1395 01:35:59.119 --> 01:36:02.119 really interested in technology, watch Black Mirror. No, I just watched the 1396 01:36:02.199 --> 01:36:09.319 Jenson's Anything That Came Came True things. He's gonna go home and watch Black 1397 01:36:09.319 --> 01:36:14.880 Mirror. Netflix All Black Mirror. Huh, Yeah, it's a Netflix series. 1398 01:36:14.880 --> 01:36:17.920 Oh, it's crazy, plug, It's crazy all right, another two 1399 01:36:17.960 --> 01:36:24.079 hours gone. I went quick. We'll be back next week. And we 1400 01:36:24.119 --> 01:36:27.560 appreciate all of our veterans. Thank you. Oh yeah, veterans are important 1401 01:36:27.600 --> 01:36:31.520 to it. Absolutely. Uh call us, come see us, set up 1402 01:36:31.560 --> 01:36:38.560 an appointment. Be happy, be healthy, and we all need to be profitable.