Where Are Markets Going From Here?

WEBVTT100:00:02.480 --> 00:00:06.120Good morning, everybody. It's thattime once again, Sunday morning, eight200:00:06.160 --> 00:00:10.000o'clock. Right here, seven ninetyK and ST We're gonna bring you the300:00:10.039 --> 00:00:12.919Money Batter Show. We're all heretoday. We're gonna bring you our insight400:00:13.400 --> 00:00:18.399to what's going on. The marketshave rallied nicely, Okay, very nicely.500:00:19.079 --> 00:00:22.600S and P's up five point threepercent already for this month. Is600:00:22.600 --> 00:00:29.800it going to continue or not?We will discuss that. When we discussed700:00:29.960 --> 00:00:32.280about a week and a half ortwo weeks ago, I guess it was800:00:32.320 --> 00:00:35.759at the end of October that show, and we discussed the fact that we900:00:35.840 --> 00:00:38.759thought a bottom would be put in. I did not expect us to rally1000:00:38.799 --> 00:00:42.719this much this quickly, but I'lltake it. Remember, we still had1100:00:42.759 --> 00:00:47.000about three percent four percent two uhthe end of October. That pushed us1200:00:47.079 --> 00:00:51.320up, so we're up pretty nicelyfrom that. That last two weeks ago1300:00:51.880 --> 00:00:57.520on the show, we did putout AH to our clients a A A1400:00:57.520 --> 00:01:00.640A kind of like a insight towhat we were looking for, and we1500:01:00.759 --> 00:01:04.519discussed the fact that we thought betweenthen and the end of the year we1600:01:04.519 --> 00:01:10.599could have a little rally and thatthe reward was greater than the risk and1700:01:10.640 --> 00:01:14.920that if we rallied started up toabout forty five hundred or more than we1800:01:14.920 --> 00:01:18.640would think and analyze and see ifthe risk was greater than the reward and1900:01:18.680 --> 00:01:22.560pulled back again. What we didat that time is we took off some2000:01:22.640 --> 00:01:30.439of our mitigating risk instruments with thestuff that we are the inverse funds people2100:01:30.439 --> 00:01:33.280that were under investor. We'd kindof put some money back to work.2200:01:33.760 --> 00:01:36.439But we didn't jump in with bothfeet. We didn't get, oh,2300:01:36.439 --> 00:01:38.719we're gonna go crazy here and we'regonna put it all back in and get2400:01:38.719 --> 00:01:42.560everyone to the high allocation. No. What we did was, it's gonna2500:01:42.599 --> 00:01:49.799stay cautious here. And if youlisten to our chairman Powell of the Federal2600:01:49.799 --> 00:01:53.799Reserve, he told you this weekthat he did not think that they have2700:01:53.879 --> 00:01:57.400done a good enough job fighting againstinflation. So what he's doing is setting2800:01:57.480 --> 00:02:01.879us up to basically realize if thingscontinue down that world, they're going to2900:02:01.959 --> 00:02:07.040raise rates again, and we don'tthink that's good for the market. But3000:02:07.079 --> 00:02:10.080that's one of the reasons the marketreally rallied and then fell off on Thursday3100:02:10.199 --> 00:02:16.400and then came back on Friday.Because there's money on the sidelines. They3200:02:16.439 --> 00:02:21.680want to see what's happening. ButI think it's the same money going in3300:02:21.719 --> 00:02:23.599and out. I don't see alot of new money coming in. I3400:02:23.639 --> 00:02:29.879see shorts getting covered. I seeopportunities when we do fall back down.3500:02:29.919 --> 00:02:34.439But I do think we can trendhigher because there is cash and then that3600:02:34.560 --> 00:02:38.719old fear of missing out, andso we'll see where we go from there.3700:02:38.639 --> 00:02:43.639This is the Moneymoutter Show. Itis brought to you by Greenberg Financial3800:02:43.680 --> 00:02:47.120Group. Greenberg Financial Group is botha registered investment advisory and a broken dealer3900:02:47.639 --> 00:02:51.919registered with the SEC. Members ofFitroom, members of CIPIK. On the4000:02:52.039 --> 00:02:55.879show, we talk about a lotof different things. We have different strategies,4100:02:57.159 --> 00:03:02.000different opinions. Doesn't matter what itis. There is risk in everything4200:03:02.080 --> 00:03:06.599we do, say, or investin, and you need to know that.4300:03:06.680 --> 00:03:09.599You need to understand your risk priorto investing, and you need to4400:03:09.680 --> 00:03:14.400do it not only when the marketsare going on saying I can handle this.4500:03:14.479 --> 00:03:15.800I love risk, I love risk, I love risk, and then4600:03:15.800 --> 00:03:20.400the markets go down. I'm tooold for this. I can't handle this.4700:03:21.240 --> 00:03:24.919You set your allocations within a riskreward strategy. So what am I4800:03:24.960 --> 00:03:29.479saying? Say, say you'd liketo be sixty forty. Okay, that's4900:03:29.520 --> 00:03:32.560the kind of the norm. Sixtypercent towards risk, which is equity forty5000:03:32.599 --> 00:03:39.759percent, so towards income producing vehicles. And when you do that, your5100:03:39.800 --> 00:03:45.199sixty could be forty to sixty orsixty to seventy. So really what you're5200:03:45.199 --> 00:03:50.120looking at is, depending on wherethe markets are, will mitigate risk down5300:03:50.159 --> 00:03:54.240about forty percent or increase it toseventy percent, maybe sometimes of its rally5400:03:54.240 --> 00:03:58.439in seventy five, but not muchmore than that. On a balance side5500:03:58.479 --> 00:04:02.439portfolio conservative growth, maybe we getto eighty if things really got bad,5600:04:03.240 --> 00:04:08.360But it's a sliding scale. Andso right now, if I was going5700:04:08.439 --> 00:04:12.000to be sixty forty, I wouldbe fifty percent. That's what I'd be5800:04:12.039 --> 00:04:16.279looking for, probably for most mostbalanced conservative accounts. Balance accounts might be5900:04:16.319 --> 00:04:19.879a little less, might be forty, depending on their age and where they're6000:04:19.879 --> 00:04:25.439at right now. But if themarkets fell next year, like I think6100:04:25.480 --> 00:04:29.439they can, I hope not.I don't like when the markets go down,6200:04:29.519 --> 00:04:33.360believe me. But if they dofall, you know, and give6300:04:33.399 --> 00:04:39.120us an opportunity where we can say, hey, we really like the evaluations,6400:04:40.079 --> 00:04:44.079we really like the prices of someof these stocks, we really think6500:04:44.120 --> 00:04:46.439the risk is really minimal and thereward is getting greater. And then we6600:04:46.480 --> 00:04:51.439will increase our exposure to risk.We'll take off the stuff that we were6700:04:51.480 --> 00:04:56.879mitigating risk. We'll we'll go alongwell dollar costs to average in. We'll6800:04:56.959 --> 00:05:00.759use indexes, we'll use two timesthe indexes, and we'll let it rally6900:05:00.800 --> 00:05:04.560and see where it goes. Butremember those times come with a lot of7000:05:04.600 --> 00:05:09.199fear. When tomorrow, when thebest time of buying the markets is when7100:05:09.240 --> 00:05:15.040everyone else is scared. It's beenproven over and over again. And then7200:05:15.079 --> 00:05:17.800when everyone gets greedy, that's thetime to get out. And I don't7300:05:17.800 --> 00:05:21.480mean sell everything and go to cash. I'm talking about reduce your exposure.7400:05:21.759 --> 00:05:27.000Because the markets go up, youryour equity portion, your your risk portion7500:05:27.160 --> 00:05:30.920is naturally going to get up.So even if you're fifty percent right now7600:05:30.199 --> 00:05:34.439and the markets rally ten percent,you still go up five percent. You7700:05:34.480 --> 00:05:40.120should be at fifty five fifty sixpercent invested. If you pull that back7800:05:40.160 --> 00:05:44.120off the table and go back tofifty, then you then you just took7900:05:44.560 --> 00:05:47.279money off the table when the marketswere higher. You're sold high, but8000:05:47.360 --> 00:05:50.959you still got fifty percent. Ifit came down after that, and now8100:05:51.000 --> 00:05:55.040you're not fifty, but you're fortyfive, you have to add fifty percent8200:05:55.079 --> 00:05:59.399to that side of the allocation,and now you're buying low again. So8300:05:59.480 --> 00:06:01.759if you just remember what your allocationsare on how you do it and you8400:06:02.000 --> 00:06:06.519and you rebalance, that will keepyou from buying high and selling low.8500:06:06.600 --> 00:06:12.120You want to buy low, sellhigh in at least the idea of it8600:06:12.680 --> 00:06:18.439from when you where your portfolio isat a stagnant time. That's how you8700:06:18.680 --> 00:06:23.879kind of just can deal with thiswhole thing. Now, if the markets8800:06:23.920 --> 00:06:26.199really fail, you want to getmore aggressive. You don't want to be8900:06:26.199 --> 00:06:28.360fifty, you want to be sixty. You add to it. So if9000:06:28.399 --> 00:06:30.519you're forty five, you're not addingfive percent, you would add fifteen percent.9100:06:30.879 --> 00:06:34.720If the markets go up and itcontinues to go up, and you9200:06:34.879 --> 00:06:38.560and you're getting courtiers and nervous andyou don't want to be fifty and you9300:06:38.560 --> 00:06:40.920want to be forty five. Andnow you're at fifty five, you don't9400:06:40.959 --> 00:06:45.720sell five percent, you bring itdown to forty five percent. And it's9500:06:45.720 --> 00:06:49.360not easy. I don't know what'sworse. People get all nervous when they9600:06:49.360 --> 00:06:54.439sell something and the stock keeps goinghigher or the market keeps going higher,9700:06:54.920 --> 00:07:00.120and they feel like they left thatmissed out fomo foma, feel of missing9800:07:00.160 --> 00:07:04.240out. No, I mean fomofear of missing out foma. And the9900:07:05.279 --> 00:07:17.439idea behind that is all in yourbrain because really you think about how you10000:07:17.519 --> 00:07:23.759feel when the markets go down.All you do is read a bad bad10100:07:23.800 --> 00:07:29.759news and they keep going down.You get very scared and nervous. So10200:07:29.800 --> 00:07:31.040on the other side, at leastyou can sit back and say, okay,10300:07:31.040 --> 00:07:34.319and I'm not making as much,am I making that in my allocation10400:07:34.439 --> 00:07:40.000that I'm actually in the risk Andthe answer is usually yes. But if10500:07:40.000 --> 00:07:43.959you're only forty or fifty or sixtypercent invested, you're not going to make10600:07:44.000 --> 00:07:46.519whatever the you know, the Hand I don't really just look at the10700:07:46.600 --> 00:07:50.959SMP anymore, even though it's gettingbetter. But just to give you an10800:07:50.959 --> 00:07:57.959idea, the equal weighted SMP thisweek was down a half a percent and10900:07:58.000 --> 00:08:03.680the SMP was up one point threebecause US the technology stocks arising same thing11000:08:03.720 --> 00:08:09.560on the year. They equal weightedis down two percent less than the S11100:08:09.600 --> 00:08:13.079and P five hundred s and Pis up five point three and the equal11200:08:13.120 --> 00:08:18.160weighted S and P is only upthree point seven and on the but now11300:08:18.199 --> 00:08:22.959you look at the year S andP says it's up fifteen percent. Equal11400:08:22.000 --> 00:08:26.639weighted is still down point three percent. And that's where most people's portfolios are.11500:08:28.079 --> 00:08:33.200Okay, unless you're just in thespy and that's where all your money11600:08:33.240 --> 00:08:37.360is. But you're usually balanced,and you're usually spread around and you're allocated11700:08:37.360 --> 00:08:46.440because that's the correct way to reducerisk of concentration. All right, So11800:08:46.120 --> 00:08:54.120where are we now. We've movedup over forty four hundred by back and11900:08:54.159 --> 00:08:58.480forth a little bit. Unless he'sfed, people come out and start talking12000:08:58.519 --> 00:09:01.919about how they got to raise ratesand they got to be aggressive. I12100:09:01.960 --> 00:09:07.080say, we have back and forthmotion to forty five hundred. We break12200:09:07.120 --> 00:09:11.039there. We got forty five fifty, forty six hundred. At that time,12300:09:11.120 --> 00:09:13.080I would be saying, yeah,let's take some money off the table.12400:09:16.080 --> 00:09:18.039It's hard for me to say thatwe're going to go way down into12500:09:18.120 --> 00:09:22.600this timeframe, but we could comeback down to forty two seventy five,12600:09:22.720 --> 00:09:28.000forty three hundred, forty two fiftyin that area, and that's not bad.12700:09:28.120 --> 00:09:31.480I mean, if you think aboutit, we were just almost there.12800:09:31.519 --> 00:09:35.759The other day we got down toabout forty three, yeah, forty12900:09:35.840 --> 00:09:41.720or something like that, and nowtoday we're over forty four hundred. So13000:09:41.480 --> 00:09:46.240those things do happen. They willhappen at times. If you don't like13100:09:46.320 --> 00:09:52.360doing any of it, then getsomebody. And this is just the money13200:09:52.399 --> 00:09:56.519management side. This is the investmentside, which is really where most people13300:09:56.559 --> 00:09:58.840care about at the end. Butthis all fits in with the planet.13400:10:00.000 --> 00:10:03.480This doesn't arise. You got theplan. You got you you sit down13500:10:05.440 --> 00:10:07.200and you put the plan together,and you look at your assets and say13600:10:07.399 --> 00:10:13.559from these assets, what kind ofcash flow do I need? And then13700:10:13.639 --> 00:10:18.080after you get your cash flow,the rest can go into appreciation and from13800:10:18.080 --> 00:10:24.679that appreciation, how much risk doyou want to take? And it gets13900:10:24.679 --> 00:10:28.840broken down that way. It's prettysimple as you go through the process to14000:10:30.039 --> 00:10:35.840understand through your risk tolerance and yourportfolio and your needs. How a portfolio14100:10:35.879 --> 00:10:39.960gets put together. But it canonly be put together if you go and14200:10:39.039 --> 00:10:43.639I'm going backwards now to the beginningof the plan. Are you retired or14300:10:43.639 --> 00:10:48.120you're not retired? Are you takingSocial Security or not? How much is14400:10:48.159 --> 00:10:52.320your medicare? Whenever do you planor taking sold security, Are you getting14500:10:52.320 --> 00:10:56.200a lumpsum from your from from yourcompany or you're going to get a pension.14600:10:58.080 --> 00:11:01.399What are you living on now?What's your budget now? And then14700:11:01.399 --> 00:11:05.200you go through the whole system,and then you get a kind of a14800:11:05.440 --> 00:11:11.679what's called a Monte Carlo projection,which is a percentage of whether or not14900:11:11.840 --> 00:11:16.879your plan's going to work. Ifyou're down in the forty to fifty sixty15000:11:16.960 --> 00:11:18.759range, you probably said, well, I got to change some stuff.15100:11:18.759 --> 00:11:22.399You had to get that back upinto the eighty ninety percent range of being15200:11:24.240 --> 00:11:28.480a plan that works, and thenonce you get that, you start going15300:11:28.519 --> 00:11:35.480forward. It's amazing, amazing tome how many people say they want a15400:11:35.519 --> 00:11:43.120plan versus how many people actually havea plan. And I know that because15500:11:43.120 --> 00:11:46.320people keep coming in and saying,I don't have a plan. I don't15600:11:46.320 --> 00:11:48.600have a financial plan, i'll havea retirement plan, I don't have a15700:11:48.639 --> 00:11:50.960cash flow plan. I don't havea plan of what I'm going to do15800:11:52.000 --> 00:11:56.120with my estate. I don't haveany of this. And they got three15900:11:56.159 --> 00:12:01.960million plus dollars and they got todo something. Because you work all your16000:12:01.039 --> 00:12:05.519life and your job is to takecare of your family, take care of16100:12:05.600 --> 00:12:09.840the things, have dreams, putthat money away, But you're really not16200:12:09.039 --> 00:12:15.279planning. Anybody that's over forty yearsold plus should be planning. Obviously,16300:12:15.320 --> 00:12:20.639the sooner you can plan, thebetter. Sooner you can plan, the16400:12:20.679 --> 00:12:24.360better. But if you got withinten years of retirement, you better start16500:12:24.360 --> 00:12:28.360planning and planning fast and make sureyou're going to be in a good position.16600:12:28.759 --> 00:12:31.600You got five years, it's eventhere now. If you're retired.16700:12:31.279 --> 00:12:35.960A lot of people wait til I'mretiring in two months or three months or16800:12:35.960 --> 00:12:41.240a year. That's good because nowyou're gonna put together the retirement plan and16900:12:41.279 --> 00:12:45.519you cash a plan and then implementit. But you don't have time to17000:12:45.600 --> 00:12:50.200correct it if you only have ayear or two left. But there are17100:12:50.240 --> 00:12:52.919still things you can do. Youcan start looking at one. You should17200:12:52.960 --> 00:12:58.759take social Security, well, howmuch money you can make away if you're17300:12:58.759 --> 00:13:03.480still getting medicare, what bracket you'regoing to be in. Then these are17400:13:03.519 --> 00:13:07.519all things that have come into playwhen we sit down and talk to you,17500:13:07.600 --> 00:13:13.519and it's so important, so important, and you know I'll be the17600:13:13.559 --> 00:13:18.639first one to tell you. Upto about twenty nineteen, every plan or17700:13:18.679 --> 00:13:22.000any financial plan I kind of lookedat was just about selling life insurance.17800:13:22.799 --> 00:13:26.759Now, obviously everyone needs some typeof insurance depending on the situation you are,17900:13:26.240 --> 00:13:31.200but not everybody needs to buy lifeinsurance. And you have to reevaluate18000:13:31.519 --> 00:13:37.000the life insurance that you're in.What kind of plan you and what kind18100:13:37.000 --> 00:13:41.559of life insurance? Is it somethingyou got to keep putting premium? Sure,18200:13:41.600 --> 00:13:43.519what's the purpose of that. Alot of people want to keep it18300:13:43.519 --> 00:13:46.120because that's what their legacy is,that's what they want to pass on.18400:13:48.559 --> 00:13:50.080But if they're in a term andit's going higher and higher, then you18500:13:50.120 --> 00:13:54.480know, don't you obviously want totry to outlive that. Then you got18600:13:54.480 --> 00:13:58.279the whole life. Should you takesome money out? Should you be getting18700:13:58.320 --> 00:14:01.360some tax free money off that?How much to build up to the universal18800:14:01.440 --> 00:14:05.559life? There's a lot of differentthings that are at play. And then18900:14:07.000 --> 00:14:09.399people come and they say, oh, wow, I don't want to stop19000:14:09.440 --> 00:14:13.399spending this money, but I seewhat you're saying. You know, when19100:14:13.399 --> 00:14:16.159I'm seventy five to eighty, Iprobably won't be able to have this much19200:14:16.200 --> 00:14:18.840money coming to me anymore, andI'm gonna have a problem. Well,19300:14:18.879 --> 00:14:24.039what's your next what's the next stepof that happens a lot of people have19400:14:24.120 --> 00:14:26.200the houses paid off. They go, if that comes down to that,19500:14:26.639 --> 00:14:30.639I'll look to do a reverse mortgage. You all sell my house, and19600:14:30.679 --> 00:14:35.240then that'll take me another ten yearsor so. So there are plans.19700:14:35.720 --> 00:14:37.639You don't have to like always haveto want to get there, but you19800:14:37.720 --> 00:14:43.360have to have that emergency plan youreally do. And then if you're just19900:14:43.440 --> 00:14:48.360living, going and all, andyou got to think about your health.20000:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.799Where's your health? If you're healthy, you try to get maybe you look20100:14:50.840 --> 00:14:56.799to get some long term care.There's all different products that are out there20200:14:56.639 --> 00:15:01.320that meet your needs if you actuallysit down and go over everything, and20300:15:01.360 --> 00:15:07.080it seems a lot detailed and alot of things that are involved, but20400:15:07.759 --> 00:15:11.080that does change as you go throughit. And I hear more and more20500:15:11.120 --> 00:15:16.240people coming and thanking us and tellingus, wow, I didn't know.20600:15:16.320 --> 00:15:18.799I really need to plan. Iheard you were giving it away. I20700:15:18.840 --> 00:15:20.799heard you were doing this. Ihear you on the radio. I think20800:15:20.799 --> 00:15:24.399I'm going to go in and talkto him, and you know, and20900:15:24.440 --> 00:15:28.960then to come in and talk andwe build a relationship. And a lot21000:15:28.960 --> 00:15:37.240of people want to do business withus. Not everybody, but most and21100:15:37.240 --> 00:15:39.600they like our office. They likeour people. They like our the way21200:15:39.639 --> 00:15:43.279we do things, our team approachis so different and know a lot of21300:15:43.279 --> 00:15:46.440people. We're on a team.We're a four man team. I'm talking21400:15:46.440 --> 00:15:52.360about the whole company is a team. We work as a team, from21500:15:52.440 --> 00:15:58.240the from our assistance all the wayup to us that manage money. It's21600:15:58.279 --> 00:16:02.000a process and we all work asa team. We're all pulling in the21700:16:02.080 --> 00:16:04.320right direct, same direction. We'reall rowing that boat in the same direction.21800:16:07.840 --> 00:16:14.519People like that. It's not thatwe're super different than anyone else,21900:16:14.559 --> 00:16:18.840but we have things that we dothat are different. The team approached as22000:16:18.879 --> 00:16:26.240a firm, the approach that wetake from the financial plan all the way22100:16:26.240 --> 00:16:30.720to the money management, the individualportfolios tailored just for them and their needs.22200:16:32.440 --> 00:16:36.559Then when we're managing the money,the mitigating risk, the risk reward22300:16:36.639 --> 00:16:42.759strategy, the models are all ours, okay, using ETF and and and22400:16:42.759 --> 00:16:47.639and and all and individual bonds,and the stock picks are ours, the22500:16:47.679 --> 00:16:52.919allocations are ours. We keep ithere. We go ahead and discuss and22600:16:52.080 --> 00:16:56.240we make the decisions. We pullthe trigger, and that's what our experience22700:16:56.279 --> 00:17:00.960allows us to do. So manypeople always say, oh, the market's22800:17:00.960 --> 00:17:04.440going down, there isn't that stressYeah, it stresses me out, but22900:17:04.519 --> 00:17:11.559they also know that I'm going tobe the one that's going to pull the23000:17:11.559 --> 00:17:17.519trigger and when things turn, they'regoing to be happy. The only thing23100:17:17.519 --> 00:17:21.359that stresses me out is what goeson in the world, what goes on23200:17:21.440 --> 00:17:25.319in our government. The idea ofbeing able to step up and buy quality23300:17:25.319 --> 00:17:30.799stuff at a lower price. Thatexcites me the same thing I'm coming out23400:17:30.440 --> 00:17:34.279reducing my risk. I don't lookat what the total returns on. Everyone's23500:17:34.319 --> 00:17:38.519returns a little different during the yearbecause they come in at different times,23600:17:40.799 --> 00:17:48.920they're involved in different in different allocations. They take money out, they put23700:17:48.960 --> 00:17:53.119money in. Everybody's returns are alittle bit different until they're with us for23800:17:53.160 --> 00:17:57.240a couple of years and then everything'smoving in the same direction. So those23900:17:57.240 --> 00:18:03.200are things to think about. Seehere we are, we still got a24000:18:03.200 --> 00:18:04.960war going on in the Middle East. We still have a war going on24100:18:06.039 --> 00:18:11.599in Ukraine. We have people thatare trying to become president that you know,24200:18:11.720 --> 00:18:18.240we all scratch our heads at.We have the bidens that obviously we'll24300:18:18.240 --> 00:18:21.720never get in trouble, just likethe Clintons. I don't know how they24400:18:21.839 --> 00:18:25.839do it, but they sure asare good at it. You know,24500:18:25.880 --> 00:18:30.559we got to use election next year. And everyone looks at each other and24600:18:30.640 --> 00:18:36.799says, I can't believe we don'thave any candidates. And then everyone starts24700:18:36.799 --> 00:18:40.960saying, well, you know what. More and more people I speak to24800:18:41.039 --> 00:18:44.680that say they hated Trump. Guesswhat, just starting to say, I24900:18:44.680 --> 00:18:48.680don't care if I like them,but I'm voting for them. I can't25000:18:48.680 --> 00:18:52.599stand what's going on with inflation.I can't stand what's going on and economically25100:18:52.640 --> 00:18:56.640in the country. I can't standthe foreign policies that we're doing on how25200:18:56.640 --> 00:18:59.519we're back in the wars. Ithought Trump was the one that was going25300:18:59.559 --> 00:19:03.119to get us in the war.How the heck are we in wars with25400:19:03.319 --> 00:19:08.839Biden and we have tensions with Chinaand Iran again when we're giving Iran everything?25500:19:10.279 --> 00:19:15.039How are we bombing over in Syriaagain because they're coming after our installations25600:19:15.000 --> 00:19:22.039back by Iran. But meanwhile everythingwe were choking off Iran and as soon25700:19:22.079 --> 00:19:25.119as we went back it hasn't evenbeen that long, has it been a25800:19:25.240 --> 00:19:30.079year? And now we got problemsall over the Middle East again. Well,25900:19:30.119 --> 00:19:34.200I think it's time that we justlet Israel do their thing and take26000:19:34.240 --> 00:19:38.160care of what we have to do. You know, I'm appalled by all26100:19:38.200 --> 00:19:47.519these universities having their kids out therewith these pro Hamas marches. And it's26200:19:47.559 --> 00:19:49.880not because I'm old, and it'snot because I'm Jewish. It's just that26300:19:49.920 --> 00:19:59.799it's unbelievably perplexing to me that wesend these kids to these Ivy League schools26400:20:00.240 --> 00:20:04.440who are supposed to be so smartand so rational and so understanding, and26500:20:04.519 --> 00:20:15.160everybody's involved and cannot separate terrorists fromPalestinians and Jews. How they want to26600:20:15.200 --> 00:20:21.000come back after the Jewish population inIsrael where they were attacked. It's unbelievable.26700:20:22.720 --> 00:20:29.920How they play the victim. Andthey don't even know or understand the26800:20:29.960 --> 00:20:34.799Holocaust. They don't understand what itwould be like that every single moment of26900:20:34.839 --> 00:20:38.799the day you're worried about something gettingblown up or missile coming to you,27000:20:38.920 --> 00:20:45.400somebody getting attacked. Sure, wethink about terrorism in the United States,27100:20:47.000 --> 00:20:48.279but you don't go out the doorthinking, oh, you might not come27200:20:48.319 --> 00:20:56.000home. Can you imagine living inour country surrounded by a whole bunch of27300:20:56.039 --> 00:21:02.880other countries that one is all deadCanada, Mexico and stick a few other27400:21:02.920 --> 00:21:07.039continents with there, and or wehave to worry about us being bombed all27500:21:07.079 --> 00:21:14.559the time, or coming in andjust rape, pillaging and killing our citizens27600:21:15.319 --> 00:21:23.359while we let them come in andwork in our countries. There's not one27700:21:23.400 --> 00:21:29.359of these students that are go aheadand protesting, even thinking about that.27800:21:30.720 --> 00:21:33.079I'd love to go ahead and findout where they live and start bombing their27900:21:33.079 --> 00:21:37.680house. That with real bombs,of course, but just talking about how28000:21:37.720 --> 00:21:41.480we don't want them there, getoff our block, you don't need to28100:21:41.480 --> 00:21:48.119be here. You should all bedead. Could you imagine that? And28200:21:48.160 --> 00:21:53.119then them being told you can't fightback. It reminds me of the in28300:21:53.240 --> 00:22:02.319Chicago when the husband and wife stoodoutside with the with their the machine guns28400:22:03.200 --> 00:22:06.720when people are banging on their theirfences and trying to come in, and28500:22:06.720 --> 00:22:11.559they were defending their home and theygot in trouble. They got in trouble.28600:22:11.680 --> 00:22:15.000So you're supposed to let them comeinto your home, kill you white,28700:22:15.240 --> 00:22:18.480and do whatever they want to yourwife and your kids, and you28800:22:18.519 --> 00:22:22.319can't stand in front and make themgo down the street. Think about it.28900:22:22.440 --> 00:22:25.920When you nail it down to that, that's what it is the thing29000:22:26.000 --> 00:22:30.400that scares me the most is whothe ones that control government? Who's the29100:22:30.599 --> 00:22:34.920every president we've had lately all comesfrom what one of the Ivy League schools.29200:22:36.720 --> 00:22:42.920So this is the ideology that wehave that's permeating these students that they29300:22:42.960 --> 00:22:49.359can't separate loving America, supporting Israel, support and being able to protect yourself.29400:22:49.720 --> 00:22:55.359What kind of president whoever that isin that group is going to be29500:22:55.519 --> 00:23:02.039like when they get older. Theinfluence of these leftists radicals that are going29600:23:02.079 --> 00:23:06.039to school, what is their influencegoing to be down the road? And29700:23:06.119 --> 00:23:10.720why are we only picking people thatare basically coming up through the ranks,29800:23:10.720 --> 00:23:12.200through the parents, through the money, through everything else. And this is29900:23:12.240 --> 00:23:18.279what they're teaching. And I probablywould bet that probably seventy percent of their30000:23:18.319 --> 00:23:22.160parents look at them and go,I don't understand. They'll grow out of30100:23:22.160 --> 00:23:27.039this because I promise you their parentsdon't want to pay more taxes. Their30200:23:27.119 --> 00:23:30.400parents are on the power side.Their parents are the ones that control a30300:23:30.400 --> 00:23:33.240lot of the stuff. But ifthese are the people that are coming up30400:23:33.279 --> 00:23:38.200to be our CEOs, our governmentofficials, the presidents of our country,30500:23:38.720 --> 00:23:47.119we are in a lot of troublebecause where does this ideology stop? They30600:23:47.240 --> 00:23:56.319cannot even understand the difference between aterrorist and a Palestinian. To get behind30700:23:56.359 --> 00:24:02.000Hamas is the most disgusting thing I'veever saw, and they don't even want30800:24:02.000 --> 00:24:07.400to explain that it's different. Sountil we can control what we can control30900:24:07.960 --> 00:24:12.240these schools, I have to tellyou, I hope they stop getting money.31000:24:12.519 --> 00:24:15.400I hope they start having to dothe right things. And the only31100:24:15.400 --> 00:24:21.640the only thing that they understand,especially these is money power, and we31200:24:21.720 --> 00:24:22.920got to take it back. We'llbe back. This is the Money Batter31300:24:22.960 --> 00:24:26.799Show. Thank you for listening andbeing part of what we believe in.31400:24:33.880 --> 00:24:37.359Welcome back to everybody to the MoneyMatter Show. We do appreciate the fact31500:24:37.359 --> 00:24:42.319that you listen, and remember ifyou don't hear us, we want to31600:24:42.359 --> 00:24:45.599go back and miss an episode orsomething or want to learn from things.31700:24:47.160 --> 00:24:52.920All our episodes are on our websiteon a podcast. You can listen anytime,31800:24:52.279 --> 00:24:59.759anyplace, anywhere. Because remember wealso do TV also now on Sunday31900:24:59.799 --> 00:25:06.839night at ten thirty after the Newsand KBOA which is NBC. We also32000:25:07.440 --> 00:25:10.799then take some of those shows andwe do three on Saturday, one six32100:25:10.960 --> 00:25:14.079thirty in the morning, one attwelve and one at twelve thirty. The32200:25:14.119 --> 00:25:18.079thirty minute segments, they're a littledifferent. I do it with Sarah Peterson32300:25:18.759 --> 00:25:22.880who's a host of that show,and a little bit more educational. And32400:25:22.920 --> 00:25:26.000then of course we do a twohour show on Sundays that kind of give32500:25:26.079 --> 00:25:30.759you an insight to who we are, what we're thinking, what our strategies32600:25:30.799 --> 00:25:38.480are, and a little in moreinsight and depth to how we manage money.32700:25:38.599 --> 00:25:45.279Yep, there we go, andwe have a big workshop coming up.32800:25:45.319 --> 00:25:48.440What is it December thirteenth. Decemberthirteenth is a Federal retirement workshops so32900:25:48.559 --> 00:25:53.000se geared towards FEDS getting ready toretire the civilian you had activeduty before.33000:25:53.039 --> 00:25:59.359Anybody that is in the federal retirementor federal government working suggests you come and33100:25:59.440 --> 00:26:03.400learn. A guy flying in fromLouisiana, he has been flying all around33200:26:03.400 --> 00:26:07.960the country presenting this doing the seminarworking with FEDS getting ready to retire for33300:26:08.160 --> 00:26:12.359twenty plus years now presented in frontof thousands people, is very knowledgeable on33400:26:12.839 --> 00:26:17.039the whole ins and outs of thefederal retirement system. Because if you are33500:26:17.039 --> 00:26:21.279a federal employee, you do knowthat it's a very unique system with your33600:26:21.319 --> 00:26:23.559pension, with the FEGLEY, withthe FVHB, with your maybe life long33700:26:23.640 --> 00:26:27.599term care, the TSP, allthat stuff we talk about during this retirement33800:26:29.000 --> 00:26:32.960seminar. So it's free to come. Your department may give you a pay33900:26:33.079 --> 00:26:36.119day off if you have that forms F one eighty two, so if34000:26:36.160 --> 00:26:38.240you do, you could just getthat sign and get paid day off.34100:26:38.279 --> 00:26:41.759You'll have lunch. It's all dayon I. It's a Wednesday, December34200:26:41.759 --> 00:26:48.640thirteenth, free seminar, free lunch, free financial plan afterwards, and absolutely34300:26:48.640 --> 00:26:52.480no obligation. Why would you notdo this? We're just there to help34400:26:52.799 --> 00:26:55.359teach you what's going on with yourfederal retirement coming up. If you're a34500:26:55.359 --> 00:27:00.200federal employee who's within what five yearsof retirement, if you wouldn't take advantage34600:27:00.119 --> 00:27:03.000years, yeah, this is thisis an opportunity that doesn't come around very34700:27:03.039 --> 00:27:07.519often and that you don't that youwouldn't take advantage of it is a real34800:27:07.559 --> 00:27:10.920mistake in my opinion. Yeah,a spotsor filling up too, So give34900:27:11.000 --> 00:27:12.279us a call. You can callus at five two zero five four four35000:27:12.319 --> 00:27:15.880four nine zero nine, or justgo on our website Greenberg Financial dot com35100:27:15.920 --> 00:27:19.759and there's a link to the eventbright page to sign up and register for35200:27:19.799 --> 00:27:22.039it. Well, do you talkabout a little bit in the monologue,35300:27:22.039 --> 00:27:26.160But probably the big news this weekwas the continuation of the rally that took35400:27:26.200 --> 00:27:30.799the S and P five hundred upeight consecutive days NASDAG nine consecutive days,35500:27:30.039 --> 00:27:33.319first time since twenty twenty one.That's and it was up not out of35600:27:33.319 --> 00:27:37.000the last ten days. Yeah,said a little pull back. That's right.35700:27:37.079 --> 00:27:38.839Y's right, because we're down onThursday and then again a big rally35800:27:38.880 --> 00:27:41.000on Friday. Big rally. Imean that puts the S and P five35900:27:41.039 --> 00:27:45.440hundred up fifteen percent again for theyear, but the RSP is still negative36000:27:45.559 --> 00:27:49.200point three percent. It's difficult,so difficult for a money manager in this36100:27:49.319 --> 00:27:52.400environment where you've got the S andP five hundred up fifteen percent and the36200:27:52.440 --> 00:27:56.200equal weighted which is where all ofthe value stocks are, and if you've36300:27:56.799 --> 00:28:02.759most portfolios will have twenty five thirtysent in value stocks down for the year.36400:28:03.079 --> 00:28:04.799Well, what we're seeing again,as we've seen most of this year,36500:28:06.000 --> 00:28:08.559is is the magnificent seven and videowas under four hundred dollars ten days36600:28:08.559 --> 00:28:11.759ago. It was at four eightyon Friday. Yeah, Microsoft at all36700:28:11.799 --> 00:28:15.119time highs all time seventy, Applesover one eighty eight, gain, Google's36800:28:15.119 --> 00:28:19.000back, get in there, andAmazon's at one forty plus. Those are36900:28:19.000 --> 00:28:22.519the stocks that has been driving thismarket for the last eight nine months.37000:28:22.599 --> 00:28:25.640So why is it hard? Yousay, Oh, why is hart why37100:28:25.640 --> 00:28:30.079you just being those stocks? Becauseas a fiduciary, you're supposed to do37200:28:30.160 --> 00:28:37.480allocation correct. As fiduciary, you'resupposed to spread around industries and companies and37300:28:37.559 --> 00:28:42.559stocks and have an allocation in differentthings. And and if you just win37400:28:42.559 --> 00:28:48.519those seven, your allocation would allbe concentrated in high tech stocks, right.37500:28:48.920 --> 00:28:53.160And that's what people don't really understandis that we have a fiduciary responsibility37600:28:53.319 --> 00:28:57.200which is backed up by the SECand FINRA to do the right thing.37700:28:57.319 --> 00:29:02.480And it's always cool if everyone's makinga lot of money, but if they37800:29:02.480 --> 00:29:06.200don't make the money, then youhave those attorneys out there sniffing around,37900:29:06.759 --> 00:29:11.200going, oh, that was anunsuitable allocation. So it's kind of torn38000:29:11.440 --> 00:29:18.000on both sides. But what wedo is we make sure a growth allocation,38100:29:18.079 --> 00:29:19.720whatever it is, was split itup between the good ones, and38200:29:19.759 --> 00:29:23.720then we're in some of the areindexes, which is QQQ when the Spiders38300:29:23.720 --> 00:29:26.920to help us along the way,right, we've got twelve and a half38400:29:26.000 --> 00:29:30.000percent in Spiders, and qqq's inevery single account, right, every single38500:29:30.000 --> 00:29:33.960acount. One eighth it is inthose those two stocks, those two indices38600:29:34.079 --> 00:29:38.880which contain on all the magnificent seven. So with the market flat on the38700:29:38.920 --> 00:29:42.680year, I think our average account'sprobably up four or five percent because of38800:29:42.720 --> 00:29:47.559that. It's also depending on whenthe account was open, of different time38900:29:47.599 --> 00:29:49.039means and all that. Because ofthe dollar cost averaging that we do.39000:29:49.319 --> 00:29:52.880Yeah, because it's pup turn,so it can never be a flat return39100:29:52.920 --> 00:29:56.599that we produce. I never talkabout returns. And because everyone's different,39200:29:57.319 --> 00:30:00.680and you know, some people wantmore in growth, less in growth,39300:30:00.960 --> 00:30:04.480all right, and and more inthe model less in the model. So39400:30:04.519 --> 00:30:07.880what we do is make sure thatwe have a little piece of all of39500:30:07.880 --> 00:30:11.960it when we're doing it, sowe don't have to be totally out.39600:30:11.000 --> 00:30:15.920But there's no doubt even if youwere just in the Nasdaq one hundred,39700:30:15.960 --> 00:30:19.160which is where a lot of thesestocks are, they make up defenses you39800:30:19.160 --> 00:30:22.960would have if you were in thoseindividual stocks. Other than that, you39900:30:22.960 --> 00:30:26.160would have been making so much moremoney, and so I hear people,40000:30:26.160 --> 00:30:29.000Oh I made so much money.I was up thirty forty percent this year.40100:30:29.519 --> 00:30:32.720Well what's your portfolio? Well Igot our ball, I got Michael40200:30:32.759 --> 00:30:34.680so well, of course you are. You know what I'm saying. And40300:30:34.759 --> 00:30:38.440on the same token in twenty twentytwo in December, when we all got40400:30:38.480 --> 00:30:41.559crushed down to one hundred, whydon't you talk about how much money you40500:30:41.559 --> 00:30:45.720lost then? Right, because we'vegot we've got two objectives, Dean.40600:30:45.799 --> 00:30:48.039One is return on the money.Number two is return of the money.40700:30:48.279 --> 00:30:51.119We have a lot of class.It's important. Yeah, we have a40800:30:51.160 --> 00:30:53.319lot of clients that take monthly distributionsto live on because they're retired. You40900:30:53.319 --> 00:30:57.519can't be putting them in all inNvidia stock was one hundred and ninety dollars41000:30:57.559 --> 00:31:00.799like a year and a half ago. Yeah, you can't. That kind41100:31:00.799 --> 00:31:03.759of polatility is not suitable for mostpeople. Yeah, there's different things you41200:31:03.799 --> 00:31:07.160can look into. I mean wealso bought XLK for some clients, which41300:31:07.200 --> 00:31:11.079is just the technology c app soyou get a little more diversification, but41400:31:11.240 --> 00:31:15.640you do get exposure to those stocks. Right now. It's just I wanted41500:31:15.640 --> 00:31:19.559people to understand the fiducial responsibility offinancial advisors, and that goes for everything,41600:31:19.880 --> 00:31:22.960cause people think were so genial,Oh we should all that's all we41700:31:22.000 --> 00:31:26.519should be in. That's the onlything going up right, And it's kind41800:31:26.519 --> 00:31:27.799of like your health. You know, your health is good until it's not.41900:31:29.960 --> 00:31:33.160The tech stocks are good until they'renot. And when they're not,42000:31:33.359 --> 00:31:37.240it rolls very very quickly. Wesaw on twenty two, always so interesting42100:31:37.279 --> 00:31:41.079how the mindset of people whining videosis going down out of two hundred dollars42200:31:41.119 --> 00:31:42.759again it was over three hundred.Was that six hundred and all of that,42300:31:42.839 --> 00:31:45.119and then it was going back downout of two hundred, and people42400:31:45.119 --> 00:31:48.359were like, I don't want tobuy it. Why would I buy it42500:31:48.359 --> 00:31:51.079there? Why would I buy it? It's going down to zero, And42600:31:51.119 --> 00:31:52.359now it's that four fifty. They'relike they can't get enough of it.42700:31:52.640 --> 00:31:56.119Oh, down to four hundred aweek ago and I had a couple two42800:31:56.160 --> 00:31:56.839or three calls, should we sellit here? Should we sell it here?42900:31:56.880 --> 00:32:00.000Exact now all could have done thisa number time. Now it's up43000:32:00.000 --> 00:32:04.119to almost five hundred again, justyou know, literally a week later.43100:32:04.680 --> 00:32:07.240I mean, it's just it's thatkind of volatility is is not comfortable for43200:32:07.359 --> 00:32:10.960most people. The emotions of itget the best of a lot of people,43300:32:12.039 --> 00:32:15.400especially if they're not really secure andsure on what their risk tolerance is43400:32:15.400 --> 00:32:19.279in the market. If they're justdabbling in and just kind of just messing43500:32:19.359 --> 00:32:21.960around, that's gonna you're going tosee the up and down like in an43600:32:22.039 --> 00:32:23.519video, and probably a risk toleranceisn't high enough for that. If you43700:32:24.079 --> 00:32:29.720don't want to drive faster than sixtyfive miles an hour, the guy driving43800:32:29.839 --> 00:32:32.799ninety is going to beat you.You buy acceptance. Okay, he may43900:32:32.880 --> 00:32:37.319he may get in a wreck andnot and not beat you, but in44000:32:37.480 --> 00:32:39.880most cases he's going to beat you. So you have to decide to front.44100:32:39.880 --> 00:32:44.240We spend an awful lot of timewith that. I've often said before44200:32:44.279 --> 00:32:46.119we can, we can be thebest driver in the world. But if44300:32:46.160 --> 00:32:50.119you said I want to go toPhoenix at no more than seventy five miles44400:32:50.119 --> 00:32:53.279an hour and we head east atninety, something's wrong. Yeah, we've44500:32:53.319 --> 00:32:58.519got to get on the same page. And when when the markets are like44600:32:58.599 --> 00:33:00.880this, you want to be moreaggressed. That's natural. When markets are44700:33:00.960 --> 00:33:05.200like they were last year, youwant to be more defensive. That's natural.44800:33:05.720 --> 00:33:08.000We sit down and we look atthe allocation, and you guys do44900:33:08.039 --> 00:33:12.279a great job with the financial plans, and then we go a step beyond45000:33:12.279 --> 00:33:14.759that. If they'd like us tomanage some of the money. There's no45100:33:14.799 --> 00:33:19.000requirement. But if that were tobe the case, we spend a lot45200:33:19.000 --> 00:33:22.039of time trying to make sure we'reon the same page. Let's face it,45300:33:22.799 --> 00:33:25.119you know all that is, youknow, just by quality, hold45400:33:25.160 --> 00:33:29.480on to it and it'll make moneyover time. Yeah, that's great,45500:33:30.000 --> 00:33:35.279except that people don't take agent theconsideration. And when you're over sixty and45600:33:35.279 --> 00:33:37.880you're getting close to retirement or youare retired, the ups and downs in45700:33:37.920 --> 00:33:43.720the market creates a lot of stressand if you're not mitigating risk, you45800:33:43.759 --> 00:33:49.160in trouble. But can I tellyou this that one day the markets will45900:33:49.160 --> 00:33:52.200make new highs again. Of course, okay, always do they will,46000:33:52.200 --> 00:33:58.000they make new highs again. Butthe problem is as you get older and46100:33:58.079 --> 00:34:00.880closer to the fact that you don'twant to get it to two or three46200:34:00.920 --> 00:34:04.559or five years, that it takessometimes after a decline to come back and46300:34:04.559 --> 00:34:08.639make new highs. You're more aptto sell at the bottom absolutely, and46400:34:08.760 --> 00:34:12.360then go ahead. No, Iwas just gonna say you more app to46500:34:12.400 --> 00:34:15.679do that when the markets are goingdown and all you hearing the news is46600:34:15.719 --> 00:34:19.800all negative stuff. And so whenpeople just say I'll just stay there and46700:34:20.159 --> 00:34:23.320buy it, hold, don't doanything. Just uh, there's one or46800:34:23.320 --> 00:34:28.119two things that are happening. They'renot in control of your portfolio. They46900:34:28.159 --> 00:34:30.440pass it on to someone else andthey don't and they'll and the people that47000:34:30.480 --> 00:34:35.800are doing it or either invested orthey're not. Or two they don't know47100:34:35.800 --> 00:34:38.239how to do it right, couldn'tcouldn't agree with you more, Dean.47200:34:38.320 --> 00:34:44.360That's that's exactly right. And Ioften say that we sleep nights when you47300:34:44.440 --> 00:34:46.760sleep nights, and I like sleepingnights, Dean, I'm about you,47400:34:46.760 --> 00:34:51.280but I like sleeping night. Andnow we get sleep an hour an hour47500:34:51.360 --> 00:34:54.519longer. So that's pretty nice.But does drag on in the afternoon,47600:34:54.519 --> 00:34:59.480doesn't it? No? I feelpretty good. The the the uh.47700:34:59.639 --> 00:35:05.599The other one thing too is don'tlet people go on your fear and just47800:35:05.639 --> 00:35:09.760put you in annuities from your growthportfolio. Part if you allocate money towards47900:35:09.880 --> 00:35:15.440investing into and and and for itgrowing and then and then you get scared48000:35:15.440 --> 00:35:17.000and they come to you and say, oh, just buy this annuity.48100:35:17.920 --> 00:35:23.559You only have upside, not downside. The problem is that your upside it's48200:35:23.639 --> 00:35:30.199so limited. It is that youwon't not benefit when the markets really rally,48300:35:30.639 --> 00:35:32.159even when you're getting sixty percent ofthe S and P five hundred,48400:35:32.199 --> 00:35:37.199which is good. But there's somethings. And now we're going to talk48500:35:37.199 --> 00:35:40.159about annuities because a lot of peoplehave been asking about them lately, especially48600:35:40.440 --> 00:35:45.480UH in October after three months ofbeing down, and so I want to48700:35:45.519 --> 00:35:46.960I want to touch on those andwe will do that. We'll be back.48800:35:47.039 --> 00:35:51.159This is the Money Matter Show.I can't tell you how much we48900:35:51.199 --> 00:35:54.559appreciate you guys listening, being partof it and coming and telling us that49000:35:54.599 --> 00:36:02.639you like the show. We'll beback. Welcome back. We got Dave49100:36:02.679 --> 00:36:07.719show ed, Dean Greenberg, DealilingGreenberg and Todd Glick bringing you the money49200:36:07.719 --> 00:36:12.599bout of show. You can getit on any podcast. Go back,49300:36:12.599 --> 00:36:15.440look at it last week. Solist you know what I want you to49400:36:15.440 --> 00:36:16.199do. I want you to goback a couple weeks and listening to the49500:36:16.239 --> 00:36:22.760monologue and when we were talking aboutwhat we thought the Bonkets were going to49600:36:22.840 --> 00:36:25.079do, and better put, youcan go directly on our YouTube page where49700:36:25.119 --> 00:36:30.559it is actually posted. Oh sothat's even just perfectly for you to listen.49800:36:30.119 --> 00:36:34.639And so you can just go toour YouTube look up Greenberg Financial Group.49900:36:34.679 --> 00:36:37.360You'll find our page. You cansubscribe, get all the updates on50000:36:37.400 --> 00:36:39.599new videos. But yes, thetwo weeks ago monologue is on there.50100:36:39.639 --> 00:36:44.760It's got a nice pretty video ofTucson. As you talk and put it50200:36:44.760 --> 00:36:46.960in your pocket. Listen to Dean'smonologue. It's a really good twenty four50300:36:47.000 --> 00:36:51.880minutes of information. So you weretalking a little bit about anwdies before the50400:36:51.960 --> 00:36:54.719last break, and obviously a lotof people have been looking into them as50500:36:55.119 --> 00:37:00.559the risk how do I say this? The risk level people are able to50600:37:00.559 --> 00:37:06.400tolerate is getting lower. What's thegreatest contrary indicator ever? Right? Right?50700:37:06.440 --> 00:37:09.719I mean annuity failed the best salesfor annuities and it was thousand was50800:37:09.719 --> 00:37:12.840in two thousand and eight, right, and that was why and now it's50900:37:12.960 --> 00:37:15.599the best since two thousand eight.You see him felling annuities like there's no51000:37:15.679 --> 00:37:17.480tomorrow, that's the time to loadup. I am wondering if twenty twenty51100:37:17.519 --> 00:37:22.400three will beat twenty twenty two.Twenty twenty two had a lot of annuity51200:37:22.440 --> 00:37:24.159sales, so it's going to beinteresting to see the year end. But51300:37:24.920 --> 00:37:29.480going back to what kind of annuitieshave been very popular has been my gas51400:37:29.599 --> 00:37:35.079the multi year guaranteed annuities essentially justa CD with an annuity company. And51500:37:35.480 --> 00:37:38.400the reason it's so popular is rightnow you can get an a rated insurance51600:37:38.400 --> 00:37:43.440company. This one is Athene,and Athene is paying six point one five51700:37:43.440 --> 00:37:47.280percent guaranteed for five years. Youcan pull out six point one five percent51800:37:47.320 --> 00:37:51.199penalty free in any given year,or you can leave it in there and51900:37:51.239 --> 00:37:54.760have it compound. It's a reallynice product. You even have the ability52000:37:54.760 --> 00:37:59.920to have additional contributions if you wantedto. So it is a five.52100:38:00.199 --> 00:38:02.079You can look at three years,you can look at seven years. That's52200:38:02.119 --> 00:38:06.039the best a rated product we've beenable to find. Plus they're a great52300:38:06.039 --> 00:38:08.360team, very fast on processing times. The other option that a lot of52400:38:08.400 --> 00:38:14.360people looking into annuities are FIA isfixed index annuities. That's because people don't52500:38:14.440 --> 00:38:16.679like the idea of possibly losing anymoney, but you pay for that.52600:38:17.199 --> 00:38:20.760The reason you pay for that isbecause you're going to be capped, so52700:38:20.840 --> 00:38:23.119Let's say in your annuity you're basedon the S and P five hundred and52800:38:23.119 --> 00:38:27.119you have a cap rate of ninepercent. That means you can only make52900:38:27.159 --> 00:38:30.320a maximum of nine percent in anygiven year, but you will never lose53000:38:30.360 --> 00:38:31.639any money in any given a year, either because you have a floor or53100:38:31.760 --> 00:38:36.079zero percent. The market's down tenpercent, you're not down ten, You're53200:38:36.079 --> 00:38:38.920only down. You're actually flat,you're zero. If the market's up ten,53300:38:39.000 --> 00:38:43.039you're not up ten, you're onlyup nine. Right, So that's53400:38:43.079 --> 00:38:45.400how the caps work in the FIA. Then it gets even more complicated if53500:38:45.440 --> 00:38:50.079you add something on top of itcalled an income rider. These are where53600:38:50.119 --> 00:38:52.719the bonuses start coming into play,where people will here get a twenty five53700:38:52.760 --> 00:38:57.719percent return in your first year,guaranteed, get a buy fact percent bonus,53800:38:57.760 --> 00:39:02.119not return five. Yeah, annuitysalesman's really try to mislead people,53900:39:02.320 --> 00:39:07.440and just to even say it,to even say a bonus is misleading,54000:39:07.519 --> 00:39:09.320right because it seems like a return. Anytime you see a percentage, you54100:39:09.360 --> 00:39:13.239think it's a return. We callthat funny money. Right, Yes,54200:39:13.360 --> 00:39:15.960it's there for your income down theroad, and that's how they get away54300:39:15.960 --> 00:39:19.679with it, quote legally, butthere's not an investor that I have talked54400:39:19.719 --> 00:39:22.639to that has came to me andsaid tell me about this, that ever54500:39:22.760 --> 00:39:25.840understood it. And even furthermore,there's a couple extra ploys that have been54600:39:27.000 --> 00:39:31.119introduced into the marketplace where for thefirst and second year, your fixed rate54700:39:31.199 --> 00:39:37.000strategy will pay you an obscene amount. So I've seen fixed indextinuities where they'll54800:39:37.039 --> 00:39:39.679say we'll pay you seven point fivepercent on your fixed account for the first54900:39:39.760 --> 00:39:44.480year, five percent on your fixedaccount for the second year, guaranteed no55000:39:44.519 --> 00:39:46.840matter what rates do. And thenafter that third year, who knows what,55100:39:46.920 --> 00:39:52.079you get a minimum of one exactlyguarantee of no less than point twenty55200:39:52.119 --> 00:39:54.280five right, And that's usually it'sstipulated in the contract. So just know55300:39:54.400 --> 00:39:58.960like you're going to hear that alot. Because of interest rates have gone55400:39:59.039 --> 00:40:01.719up so much, annuity companies theycan start introducing a lot of different ploys55500:40:01.920 --> 00:40:07.000and a different marketing strategies to getmore people into the door. That's one55600:40:07.039 --> 00:40:08.880of them that I've just seen recently, the one that you that I thought55700:40:08.960 --> 00:40:14.199was interesting. And these are forpeople that, okay, want to be55800:40:14.199 --> 00:40:16.440in the market, yeah, okay, and no catch, but it's you55900:40:16.480 --> 00:40:20.920know, if it's the ten percentone the trigger, the trigger if you56000:40:21.119 --> 00:40:23.159if you make one dollar, youmake ten percent. If you make twenty56100:40:23.199 --> 00:40:27.440percent, you make ten percent.If it goes down one dollar, you56200:40:27.559 --> 00:40:29.800even the S and P. Ifthe S and P is up one dollar.56300:40:30.079 --> 00:40:31.800Yeah, So like this, thatparticular product that he's talking about is56400:40:31.840 --> 00:40:36.800a five year with Lincoln National.It's a FIA and and if when you56500:40:36.840 --> 00:40:39.599start the contract it's a calendar yearfrom that point, if the S and56600:40:39.599 --> 00:40:43.199P's up one dollar, you getthe full nine percent. If it's up56700:40:43.639 --> 00:40:45.719twenty percent in one given year,you still get the nine percent. But56800:40:45.920 --> 00:40:51.559in that product you have a youalso are guaranteed not to lose any money56900:40:51.559 --> 00:40:53.679an even given a year, youhave a floor zero. So it is57000:40:53.800 --> 00:40:58.920nice for some people who look intopossibly, you know, using it as57100:40:58.920 --> 00:41:02.480a bond alternative, or someone who'sjust super risk averse but wants to have57200:41:02.519 --> 00:41:07.440some participation in the market without thatrisk. Well, it's hard to call57300:41:07.440 --> 00:41:09.400it a bond alternative. Now.It was easy when interest rates for one57400:41:09.440 --> 00:41:13.880percent because you can get five percent. Now what I look at et as57500:41:13.880 --> 00:41:17.639someone that is happy to be ableto make ten percent if the S and57600:41:17.639 --> 00:41:22.400p is up one dollar to whatever, right, Okay, but don't want57700:41:22.400 --> 00:41:25.280to lose when the markets go down. So in other words, you put57800:41:25.320 --> 00:41:29.480one hundred thousand dollars in. Ifthe first year of the market's down twenty57900:41:29.480 --> 00:41:32.119percent, you still have one hundredgrand. If the second year the market58000:41:32.159 --> 00:41:36.480is up two percent, you maketen percent. Now you're one hundred and58100:41:36.559 --> 00:41:39.199ten percent under ten thousand. Andthen if you're up twenty percent the next58200:41:39.239 --> 00:41:44.280year, you only make ten percentagain. And so it's very but don't58300:41:44.320 --> 00:41:46.599forget. They still have fees.They still have things like that that you58400:41:46.760 --> 00:41:52.159have to know and understand. Andlook at the illustration, a real illustration58500:41:52.880 --> 00:41:57.519of how it all works. Yeah, considering an annuity, you really have58600:41:57.599 --> 00:42:00.119to be talking with someone that youtrust, someone that you know, someone58700:42:00.159 --> 00:42:06.639that you you believe will steer youcorrectly because there are so many different options.58800:42:06.800 --> 00:42:10.360It's amazing to me from the insuranceside of this, And they call58900:42:10.440 --> 00:42:15.320themselves planner. Is the only thingthat they're selling are annuities or insurance?59000:42:15.360 --> 00:42:17.599Yep, that universal insurance. Hey, you put all this money in,59100:42:17.679 --> 00:42:22.360put one lump something in universal policy. I'm talking to this guy this week,59200:42:22.400 --> 00:42:23.840and you know what in ten years, you'll be able to pull out59300:42:23.920 --> 00:42:29.760all this money tax free. Notone thing about if it doesn't work out59400:42:29.760 --> 00:42:31.760that you have to be and you'retaking that money out and you stop paying59500:42:31.800 --> 00:42:36.880premiums, that now would becomes saxophle. Now one thing about the fact you59600:42:36.920 --> 00:42:40.519can't take out that much money theprojections didn't work out, Not one thing59700:42:40.559 --> 00:42:45.480about the fact that universal policies couldbe upside down at times. All right59800:42:45.559 --> 00:42:49.480now and will be, will behonestly if you don't, if you don't,59900:42:50.880 --> 00:42:53.360right, you know. And soit just amazes me, and he60000:42:53.400 --> 00:42:55.840goes, well, this was partof the financial plan on how I can60100:42:55.840 --> 00:43:00.239take out tax free income. Itsounded great. Well, of course it60200:43:00.239 --> 00:43:04.880does. But that's what they're selling. You sell the plan, buy the60300:43:04.920 --> 00:43:09.159plan, implement the plan of everythingyou have, because a plan has to60400:43:09.159 --> 00:43:15.400be your protection, which is insurances, your long term care, your health60500:43:15.440 --> 00:43:19.519has to be in the consideration,your medicare, your social security, your60600:43:19.559 --> 00:43:22.639cash flow plan that you put together, your retirement plan that you put together,60700:43:22.760 --> 00:43:28.960your state plan that you put together. That's what encompasses the tie of60800:43:29.039 --> 00:43:31.920plan and also that lurp, andthat's what you're talking about with the cash60900:43:31.960 --> 00:43:36.679value life insurance and taking out money, and the people like to market it61000:43:36.760 --> 00:43:38.880all kinds of different ways. LURPis the most popular. Being your own61100:43:38.880 --> 00:43:44.320banker is another way they market it. LURP stands for Life Insurance Retirement Plan,61200:43:45.119 --> 00:43:47.039and it's just a marketing point.It's not an actual retirement plan.61300:43:47.760 --> 00:43:51.559That's just a word that they puton top of it. It's actually called61400:43:51.559 --> 00:43:54.639a universal life insurance policy or it'sa could be a variable universal life or61500:43:55.119 --> 00:43:59.719a whole life, but either way, it's not an actual retirement plan.61600:44:00.079 --> 00:44:01.880So I hit so many times peoplein retirement. They'll call me up and61700:44:01.880 --> 00:44:06.199they'll be like, should I belooking into this LURP. I've never seen61800:44:06.400 --> 00:44:09.239it really work for anyone older olderthan the age of fifty five unless you61900:44:09.280 --> 00:44:13.800have a lot, a lot ofmoney, and because then you can possibly62000:44:13.800 --> 00:44:16.679make it up on the tax savings, but you are paying for insurance.62100:44:16.719 --> 00:44:21.159And when you're old, guess whathow much insurance costs? Doesn't didn't cost62200:44:21.159 --> 00:44:24.199how much it is for Todd junior, Right, it's a lot different.62300:44:24.679 --> 00:44:29.000So, and it also goes intoyour health and all that, and so62400:44:29.119 --> 00:44:31.840there's there's so many things that youhave to it's it's a lot more complicated62500:44:31.920 --> 00:44:35.760than they that they want to makeit seem. Because if if they can62600:44:35.760 --> 00:44:37.960make it seem as simple as possibleand they can get that commission up front,62700:44:38.000 --> 00:44:43.599it's a big payday for them.Yeah, that's a big I want62800:44:43.639 --> 00:44:45.639to go back on that annuities realquick though, because I ran into a62900:44:45.679 --> 00:44:50.880client and I think a lot ofpossible clients could have this, or people63000:44:50.880 --> 00:44:52.920who are listening to the show.If you have an IRA annuity where you've63100:44:52.920 --> 00:44:57.199turned on the income, you needto make sure if you have a spouse63200:44:57.239 --> 00:45:00.679and you want that income to bejoined that the she is that your spouse63300:45:00.760 --> 00:45:05.920he or she is listed as thejoint anwittent on the IRA. They're not63400:45:06.000 --> 00:45:08.400all IRA nudies allow for joint income, so you have to ask the annuity63500:45:08.679 --> 00:45:12.920company that it's with. But ifthey are listed as joint new attents,63600:45:12.960 --> 00:45:15.239the income will pass over. Otherwise, if there's no money left in the63700:45:15.280 --> 00:45:21.960annuity at the time of the owner'sIRA's annuity's death, then the spouse's income63800:45:22.159 --> 00:45:25.320is no longer and there's no income, there's no money for them to inherit.63900:45:25.800 --> 00:45:30.159So that's something to be considering,especially if you just turned on income64000:45:30.199 --> 00:45:32.760in the last five years, becausethere's still probably a little bit of money64100:45:34.159 --> 00:45:37.119there because if people don't know,just because you're getting guaranteed lifetime income,64200:45:37.159 --> 00:45:40.840it's still coming off your account value. So eventually that a count value will64300:45:40.920 --> 00:45:45.000be zero. Doesn't mean your incomestops, but it means your errors aren't64400:45:45.000 --> 00:45:47.159going to get anything when you stop. You know, there are three things64500:45:47.239 --> 00:45:51.760that made me smile this week.At least three, right, they're probably64600:45:51.760 --> 00:45:53.679more than that, but there's three. The market rally made me smile.64700:45:54.320 --> 00:46:00.800A report that China's exports to theUnited States dropped six point four percent last64800:46:00.840 --> 00:46:07.599month. We're making progress there,and the oil prices continue to plummet.64900:46:07.960 --> 00:46:12.639Russia and Saudi Arabia announced that they'regoing to continue their production cuts, but65000:46:12.800 --> 00:46:15.280nobody cares, and oil continue todrop. So not only are you going65100:46:15.320 --> 00:46:19.679to sell less oil, you're gonnasell it at an ore price. So65200:46:20.159 --> 00:46:23.400yay Russia. Saudi Arabia too bad? Yeah, I think bad. I65300:46:23.440 --> 00:46:27.920think their costs for oil production issomething ridiculous. Oh it wou'd be very65400:46:27.960 --> 00:46:30.519low. But in the twenties,you think of the amount of money you're65500:46:30.519 --> 00:46:34.480giving up with oil down, whatfifteen bucks from the high end, and65600:46:34.519 --> 00:46:37.320now you're also they're making less ofit. They're making it up with all65700:46:37.360 --> 00:46:39.800the US treasuries they own, withall the interest rates that they're buying.65800:46:40.280 --> 00:46:44.079That looks like Warren Buffett, right, Yeah, they're just sitting on cash65900:46:44.159 --> 00:46:51.079generating interest. It's ridiculous about thatlittle little things going on with Buffet that66000:46:51.159 --> 00:46:53.239they were saying in his own portfolio, he was buying stocks that are in66100:46:53.280 --> 00:46:58.880his company portfolio. Really yeah,I didn't see that, you know,66200:46:58.960 --> 00:47:00.800but no one really knows that details. That was the highlight City buy him66300:47:00.800 --> 00:47:06.480before two years before because they werelike Walmont and stuff like that. But66400:47:06.800 --> 00:47:08.079first of all, I don't evenknow why we would have his own portfolio.66500:47:08.320 --> 00:47:10.400Why would you bother? Why wouldn'the just put all his money in66600:47:10.400 --> 00:47:15.039the other se one hundred forty ninebillion in cash one hundred and forty nine66700:47:15.199 --> 00:47:17.840billion. Well, I guess hegets all the money that comes out,66800:47:17.880 --> 00:47:22.639he's got to invest it, youknow, right, Good, we'll be66900:47:22.719 --> 00:47:27.360back. This is the Money MatterShow. If you want to see us,67000:47:27.760 --> 00:47:30.840talk to us, just get onour website and contact us or call67100:47:30.920 --> 00:47:35.079us and just send an appointment.And we've been doing a lot of that67200:47:35.199 --> 00:47:38.320lately, and it's uh, it'sbeen very very helpful for people, and67300:47:38.679 --> 00:47:43.199we're going to continue doing it becausethat's our business and we love it having67400:47:43.239 --> 00:47:45.760new people come in and talk tous. We'll be back. This is67500:47:45.800 --> 00:47:55.800the money Man Show. Welcome back. You're listening to the second hour of67600:47:55.800 --> 00:47:59.519the Moneymatter Show. I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Dave sure Would,67700:47:59.519 --> 00:48:01.920Todd Glick, and Dean Greenberg.For those of you just tuning in.67800:48:02.000 --> 00:48:06.320The Dow is up point seven percentlast week. The S and P five67900:48:06.400 --> 00:48:08.840hundred was up one point three percent, the Nasdaq was up two point four68000:48:08.840 --> 00:48:13.639percent, the Russell two thousand,the small caps were down three percent,68100:48:13.719 --> 00:48:15.920and the RSP, which is theequal weight to S and P five hundred,68200:48:16.239 --> 00:48:20.559was down point six percent for theweek. And S and P five68300:48:20.599 --> 00:48:22.039hundred has been killing it the lastlike we were talking about the first hour,68400:48:22.039 --> 00:48:24.800has been up nine out of lastten days. It's back up fifteen68500:48:24.840 --> 00:48:28.400percent for the year. The Dowis up three and a half percent for68600:48:28.400 --> 00:48:30.320the year. The NASDAK, whichis tech heavy, is up thirty two68700:48:30.360 --> 00:48:34.519percent for the year. And thoseare mainly those seven stocks we talked about68800:48:34.559 --> 00:48:37.920all the time, in Vidia,Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft.68900:48:37.320 --> 00:48:40.679That's what's driving sm P five hundredand the NASDAK. But that's why you69000:48:40.679 --> 00:48:45.760see the equal weighted S and Pfive hundred down for the year slightly pretty69100:48:45.800 --> 00:48:46.880much flat. I mean, it'sdown point three percent for the year.69200:48:47.119 --> 00:48:51.039But that's why it's not up fifteenpercent because the majority of these stocks are69300:48:51.119 --> 00:48:53.480not doing well. Value stocks aregetting killed this year. Value stocks simply69400:48:53.559 --> 00:48:58.199have not performed. The equal weightedS and P five hundred flat for the69500:48:58.280 --> 00:49:01.920year. The dividend e ts areactually down five to seven percent for the69600:49:02.000 --> 00:49:06.719year, including the dividend. Andthat's why conservative investors are a little confused69700:49:06.719 --> 00:49:08.440the last couple of years because they'rethinking, Okay, we should be up,69800:49:08.440 --> 00:49:10.920we should be running with this.Why are we not going Last year,69900:49:10.920 --> 00:49:14.719they're confused why they were down somuch, Because bond funds just got70000:49:14.800 --> 00:49:17.480hammered more than equity funds last year. They were down more. So you're70100:49:17.480 --> 00:49:20.960gonna get hit hard that way ifyou're in those bond funds, which if70200:49:21.000 --> 00:49:23.039you're in a conservative investor you're mostlikely in at least forty percent. Well,70300:49:23.119 --> 00:49:25.719if you stayed in long term bondslast year, you got, like70400:49:25.760 --> 00:49:29.159you said, Dylan, you gothammered long term bond funds. Yeah,70500:49:29.280 --> 00:49:31.599especially horrible. At least the bonds. If you're an individual, say ten70600:49:31.719 --> 00:49:35.239or twenty bonds, you get yourprincipal back at that time. You're still70700:49:35.239 --> 00:49:37.079going to see right now they're downin value, but if you don't sell70800:49:37.119 --> 00:49:40.159them, you'll get your principal backat the maturity date. But with this70900:49:40.320 --> 00:49:45.440value stocks this year, they're gettinghammered again. I was interested to see71000:49:45.679 --> 00:49:49.760gold, to see gold. Thispast week, gold was eighteen hundred dollars.71100:49:49.800 --> 00:49:53.320Remember gold moved inversely to the dollar. With interest rates high, the71200:49:53.400 --> 00:49:58.440dollars high, so gold was downaround eighteen hundred dollars, and it jumped71300:49:58.480 --> 00:50:02.039from eighteen hundred to two thousand basedon the war and the concern that the71400:50:02.039 --> 00:50:07.440war was going to expand going tobecome a bigger deal. It dropped fifty71500:50:07.480 --> 00:50:12.679six bucks this week to nineteen thirtyfive. And unless we see evidence that71600:50:12.719 --> 00:50:15.559the war is going to become abigger deal, I think it's going back71700:50:15.599 --> 00:50:19.280to eighteen hundred. Likely, Ithink it's going to go backward. It's71800:50:19.280 --> 00:50:22.079supposed to be. It wouldn't haveit would still be eighteen hundred. If71900:50:22.119 --> 00:50:28.199it wasn't for the war ten yeartreasury four point six, two year treasury72000:50:28.320 --> 00:50:32.320five point one todd forty four basispoint spread, that spread was a full72100:50:32.360 --> 00:50:37.639percentage point. Then it dropped toalmost nothing, and now the last three72200:50:37.800 --> 00:50:40.960weeks in a row it's expanded.Not what we want to see. We72300:50:42.039 --> 00:50:47.320want to see the yield curve becomenormal, and this inversion increasing like that72400:50:47.960 --> 00:50:52.320not a good thing. We didsee the S and P five hundred break72500:50:52.360 --> 00:50:55.800above forty four hundred on Friday andclosed there. Forty four hundred was a72600:50:55.920 --> 00:51:00.679significant level of support. There wasa gap in the charge at forty four72700:51:00.760 --> 00:51:05.000hundred. There was a multiple attemptsat forty four hundred that failed. We72800:51:05.159 --> 00:51:12.000now closed above forty four hundred.That to me would be suggesting higher prices72900:51:12.039 --> 00:51:15.800are ahead. Definitely is suggesting thatI'm having a hard time believing in it,73000:51:15.840 --> 00:51:20.840though, and because of the magnitudeof the move, Yeah, I73100:51:20.880 --> 00:51:22.679get that. Yeah, And soI mean it's possible that you have a73200:51:22.719 --> 00:51:27.760fake out. Doesn't happen often.You don't normally see fake outs, especially73300:51:27.840 --> 00:51:30.280on big markets like that, becausethere's so many players in it. But73400:51:31.239 --> 00:51:35.840again, I just there's something notsitting with me, right, But you73500:51:35.840 --> 00:51:38.239know, I just find it sofascinating with value investors. I mean,73600:51:38.280 --> 00:51:44.079could you imagine, because when Iwas in finance, value investing is really73700:51:44.119 --> 00:51:47.480how you invest in stocks, findalpha, you find undervalued companies. But73800:51:47.559 --> 00:51:51.440if you did that over the lasttwo three years, you're just getting killed.73900:51:51.480 --> 00:51:54.159I think the twenty two value I'llperformed if I remember correctly, I74000:51:54.199 --> 00:51:59.440think the I think the value ETAsto actually finish twenty two higher, but74100:51:59.519 --> 00:52:02.199it basically just got back. It'sa racing of but twenty one. It's74200:52:02.239 --> 00:52:05.679been tough this year, but Ithink that's an area where you need to74300:52:05.679 --> 00:52:10.199look, and especially the underperformance ithad in twenty twenty one, right compared74400:52:10.199 --> 00:52:14.079to all the other stocks. Andinterestingly, in this environment, we're making74500:52:14.119 --> 00:52:17.639sure that everybody has the appropriate amountof value stocks, even though they have74600:52:17.760 --> 00:52:21.599not performed, because they will.It's been hard to hold them. It's74700:52:21.599 --> 00:52:23.840been hard to hold them. It'sharder. It's even harder to buy them.74800:52:24.159 --> 00:52:27.760But that's what a person should be. And they're not sexy. You74900:52:27.800 --> 00:52:31.320know, they don't make you reallyexcited, and that's sometimes the other reason75000:52:31.320 --> 00:52:34.880that you hate to see them inthere. I mean talk about Disney,75100:52:34.960 --> 00:52:37.559right, who has just been justa dog, hasn't been able to get75200:52:37.599 --> 00:52:40.880out of its own way, andthen finally jumps and it's finally Okay,75300:52:40.880 --> 00:52:45.400well maybe we are finally a littleexcited about that one. But that's just75400:52:45.440 --> 00:52:49.159another example of I mean Disney,and I don't know if it's considered a75500:52:49.239 --> 00:52:52.920value, but it's pretty close toit. A nice it's like half and75600:52:52.960 --> 00:52:55.079half. Let's say it's been oneof the most comfortable stocks to be short75700:52:55.119 --> 00:52:59.519over the last couple of years,right, because other than any little Way75800:53:00.079 --> 00:53:04.199Little Rally and Disney or Walgreens,Right, yeah, Walgreen is probably the75900:53:04.199 --> 00:53:07.480easiest to be short. Disney isanother one. Just any rally just gets76000:53:07.480 --> 00:53:12.840sold. And then we saw onThursday they reported earnings, they reported a76100:53:12.880 --> 00:53:17.119pretty solid quarter. UH streaming servicepicked up a little bit, made positive76200:53:17.159 --> 00:53:21.239comments. Stock jumps about seven percent, and then on Friday if half of76300:53:21.239 --> 00:53:25.320that back again, it's just ait's been a difficult Stoka. Lily's been76400:53:25.400 --> 00:53:30.559amazing, amazing STOCKA we talk alittle bit about the weight loss drugs,76500:53:30.559 --> 00:53:36.000and Lily of course has Monjarro,which is the UH for diabetes and it's76600:53:36.000 --> 00:53:38.400supposed to be all that right,twenty to twenty five percent loss of your76700:53:38.679 --> 00:53:45.159of your body weight. They hadto apply to the FDA for approval of76800:53:45.239 --> 00:53:49.400the of their to do that forfor weight loss. It's a proof of76900:53:49.440 --> 00:53:51.800diabetes right now, but they wantto do it for weight loss, and77000:53:51.840 --> 00:53:57.800they got that approval and the drugis they can't I can't the names escaping77100:53:57.840 --> 00:54:00.239me. Uh. They're going tomarket it under a different name. It's77200:54:00.639 --> 00:54:06.159like, isn't it Uh, that'sthat's that's the active ingredient. That's the77300:54:06.199 --> 00:54:10.440active ingredient. It's going to beuh monjurro is for diabetes, zep bound77400:54:10.639 --> 00:54:15.760zep b o u n D is. The is the drug that's going to77500:54:15.800 --> 00:54:19.039be for weight loss, and that'sgoing to be available And that's really the77600:54:19.119 --> 00:54:23.119first. People have been using thesedrugs for weight loss for months, right,77700:54:23.280 --> 00:54:27.760but but it's never been approved forweight loss. Doctors have just been77800:54:27.800 --> 00:54:30.320writing them off take I guess justI don't know how you do that.77900:54:30.320 --> 00:54:32.719But anyway, people have been gettinga hold of it and now they've they've78000:54:32.719 --> 00:54:36.559gone ahead and approved it. Oneof the questions that came up in the78100:54:36.559 --> 00:54:39.480office here is, well, it'sgonna be about one thousand bucks a dose78200:54:40.079 --> 00:54:45.199for zep zep bound. How muchof that's going to be paid by insurance?78300:54:45.880 --> 00:54:50.159It turns out it depends upon yourcarrier. Some carriers may cover it,78400:54:50.320 --> 00:54:53.760some not. The one thing thatwas a was a definitive is Medicare78500:54:53.840 --> 00:55:00.159will not be covering zep bound.So if you're over sixty five and on78600:55:00.280 --> 00:55:05.760Medicare and looking for insurance coverage forZEP bound, that simply is not going78700:55:05.800 --> 00:55:08.280to happen. I think that's actuallya good thing because that saves more money78800:55:08.280 --> 00:55:14.159for life saving. Well, Congressis talking about making it. I don't78900:55:14.159 --> 00:55:19.480know that people over sixty five reallygonna inject themselves once a week with a79000:55:19.480 --> 00:55:22.480weight loss. I'm thinking over sixtyfive, you're kind of comfortable in your79100:55:22.480 --> 00:55:27.360skin, whatever your skin is.No, I think people would do it.79200:55:27.360 --> 00:55:29.480You do, Yeah, what doyou mean by not doing it?79300:55:29.760 --> 00:55:31.960Yeah, I'm just thinking people oversixty five, if you're if you're heavy,79400:55:32.199 --> 00:55:35.840then you're heavy. If you're ifyou're skinny, you're ginning. I79500:55:35.880 --> 00:55:38.199mean you get kind of comfortable inyour skin at that age. Yeah,79600:55:38.239 --> 00:55:43.239no, no, no, Idon't think you guys always to lose weight.79700:55:43.360 --> 00:55:45.599Yeah, I come from a biggerside. But again, as only79800:55:46.280 --> 00:55:50.920people exactly, there's only a limitedamount of money in the medicare system,79900:55:51.000 --> 00:55:54.280so but no medicare could possibly coverthat. Yeah, I mean that takes80000:55:54.320 --> 00:55:58.679away from life saving stuff. Sohow often do you have to get that80100:55:59.000 --> 00:56:02.360injection struck or whatever once a weekend? It's a thousand dollars and you take80200:56:02.599 --> 00:56:07.079dollars a week Yeah, jeez,No, she's probably not kind. And80300:56:07.840 --> 00:56:09.920now they did say, I'll say, if you had to insurance, just80400:56:10.000 --> 00:56:14.360Lily said. Lily said that theythey are going to provide a card that80500:56:14.400 --> 00:56:16.679will give you fifty percent off.Oh cool, so you have spend five80600:56:16.719 --> 00:56:22.679hundred dollars. The stock reacted witha new all time high on Thursday or80700:56:22.679 --> 00:56:27.159on Wednesday. Then on Thursday itjust tanked, had this worst day in80800:56:27.199 --> 00:56:31.199five years. And I think thatmay have something to do with the cost.80900:56:31.320 --> 00:56:36.079It may have something to do withthe lack of insurance coverage. And81000:56:36.320 --> 00:56:39.960Astrosenega said they're going to join theFRAY as well, so maybe competition is81100:56:40.039 --> 00:56:43.639playing a role. It seems likeall the above was part of that.81200:56:44.000 --> 00:56:45.119Plus they're not going to have theirworst day in five years for one thing81300:56:45.119 --> 00:56:50.280when it's looking positive. No,well, those things are definitely three negatives.81400:56:50.360 --> 00:56:53.760And the market did turn red onThursday because of drawing pals more hawkish81500:56:53.840 --> 00:56:59.079rhetoric. Yeah, it wasn't expecting. They were saying they don't feel confident,81600:56:59.719 --> 00:57:02.519but they done. Yeah, thebig rally is is because of lower81700:57:02.519 --> 00:57:07.719interest rates. If you believe theFederal Reserve is done racing interest rates,81800:57:07.840 --> 00:57:09.440you want to get long stock ina hurry yep. And then he comes81900:57:09.440 --> 00:57:13.400out and says, we don't knowif we've done enough to curve inflation for82000:57:13.400 --> 00:57:15.440the longer. We haven't broken anythingyet, and that's why we have that82100:57:15.480 --> 00:57:20.760inversion getting bigger. Yeah, becausethe investors are expecting rates to go down.82200:57:20.920 --> 00:57:22.400And the one year, that's thetwo year that's really controlled by the82300:57:22.440 --> 00:57:27.079Fed isn't budget. That's a goodpoint. Fed does control short term race,82400:57:27.119 --> 00:57:30.880they don't control long term rates andthat could be why it pop jumped82500:57:30.960 --> 00:57:32.280up a little bit and the tenyear did not. And they're still not82600:57:32.320 --> 00:57:37.159buzzing from that two percent inflation rate. There's that's still their goal, still82700:57:37.199 --> 00:57:39.719the goal. And uh, it'llbe interesting. We have CPI on Tuesday82800:57:39.960 --> 00:57:45.000next Tuesday. Yeah, day aftertomorrow and it should be good. I82900:57:45.000 --> 00:57:47.480mean oil has been down, realestate is down. Well, then you83000:57:47.480 --> 00:57:52.039get PPI on Wednesday. Huh.Then you get PPI on Wednesday PPI.83100:57:52.360 --> 00:57:54.679You know if if CPI, ifCPI is good, PPI can be bad.83200:57:54.719 --> 00:57:58.960Does it kind of doesn't matter?Yeah, so I'm I'm less a83300:57:59.039 --> 00:58:04.119huge divergence. It'll interesting because theCPI has after dropping for almost what twelve83400:58:04.159 --> 00:58:07.840straight months, went up two monthsin a row, and then last month83500:58:07.880 --> 00:58:10.480it was flat, if my memoryshows me correctly, and so it would83600:58:10.480 --> 00:58:15.280be interesting to see that drop again, which would add more weight to the83700:58:15.400 --> 00:58:17.320We're going to get a little moreinterest rates and let's go, let's get83800:58:17.400 --> 00:58:22.519this, let's buy stock. Thetime for a visit to the ev garage.83900:58:22.840 --> 00:58:25.159I'm just thinking real quick, beforewe go to ev garage. Oil84000:58:25.239 --> 00:58:30.199was at ninety like almost a monthago at this point, right correct,84100:58:30.360 --> 00:58:34.119in the nineties. So then wecould see that show up in the October84200:58:34.159 --> 00:58:37.559CPI. Yeah, because it hasdropped pretty dramatically. Now a lot of84300:58:37.599 --> 00:58:39.039that drop has come within the lastten days. You're right, right,84400:58:39.079 --> 00:58:43.159So it went to show up,that's November won't show up. But there84500:58:43.679 --> 00:58:47.000was a decline. My friends inthe real estate business say it's gotten a84600:58:47.000 --> 00:58:52.679little softer. It did, butOctober, the expectations of it being down84700:58:53.079 --> 00:58:58.480on month over month, on allall overall cells was actually wrong. It84800:58:58.519 --> 00:59:00.519was. It was a positive monthover a month. So those are big84900:59:01.039 --> 00:59:07.320divergence there on expectations. So whoknows, a little big, little harder85000:59:07.320 --> 00:59:09.159than CPI than expected, maybe,but it shouldn't be too hot. Yeah,85100:59:09.199 --> 00:59:12.639big move in one way or theother in the CPI. I'm betting85200:59:12.639 --> 00:59:15.440it's down. But well, bigmove one way or the other in CPI85300:59:15.599 --> 00:59:20.159is certainly a market mover all right, I'm gonna bet it's flat. Okay,85400:59:20.239 --> 00:59:23.400you're going flat. I'm going down, Dylan, Yeah, I BETPI.85500:59:23.480 --> 00:59:28.519You gotta go up, right,be more flat? Yeah? Two85600:59:28.599 --> 00:59:30.079flats in a down. Yeah.Well, if if we get any of85700:59:30.119 --> 00:59:32.719those three, that's a good thing, right, I would think so,85800:59:32.760 --> 00:59:36.840except the up. The only thingthat won't work is up. And of85900:59:36.840 --> 00:59:39.639course we're in an environment right nowwe're kind of all news is good news.86000:59:40.199 --> 00:59:43.719So if even if it were upa little bit, there'd be some86100:59:43.719 --> 00:59:46.400way to explain it away. Yeah, I think I feel like the market.86200:59:47.000 --> 00:59:50.760I feel like the market wants togo higher here, we're seasonally in86300:59:50.800 --> 00:59:54.599a strong period the war reality.Yeah, seasonality is really critical. Look86400:59:54.639 --> 00:59:59.960what happened in August, September,October, bad seasonality, bad mark.86501:00:00.400 --> 01:00:02.760Now we've got a good seasonality forNovember, December, January, the three86601:00:02.800 --> 01:00:07.079best months of the year historically,and okay, we're off to the races86701:00:07.119 --> 01:00:09.239here. I don't understand the wholeseasonality thing of it. When you start86801:00:09.320 --> 01:00:13.320the day of the month a lot. I get what it is. I'm86901:00:13.320 --> 01:00:15.920just saying, why does it alwaysstay like pretty much stay true because you87001:00:16.000 --> 01:00:20.679expect it to be. It's allabout expectations, right, Always been trying87101:00:20.679 --> 01:00:22.639to find why does September go down? Yeah, you expect markets to be87201:00:22.679 --> 01:00:25.599higher in November, December, January, so they are, That's what I'm87301:00:25.599 --> 01:00:28.719saying. So you buy, youdon't sell, You wouldn't sell here,87401:00:28.800 --> 01:00:30.360right, it's the seasonality. It'slike people are in good moods because the87501:00:30.360 --> 01:00:34.760holidays are around the end of theyear. They're trying to money managers or87601:00:34.880 --> 01:00:37.800institutions are trying to boost up theirnumbers something like that at the end of87701:00:37.800 --> 01:00:39.599the year. But there's no reasonSeptember is always down. You know,87801:00:39.679 --> 01:00:44.000it's just we've been trying to findwhy. My EV garage this week is87901:00:44.039 --> 01:00:46.119about one thing I talk about alot, and that's the number one complaint88001:00:46.239 --> 01:00:52.960about EV's electorcy vehicles is range.The car I least has an advertised range88101:00:52.960 --> 01:00:55.840of three hundred and thirty miles.We do know that extreme heat and extreme88201:00:55.920 --> 01:01:00.960cold and do negatively impact range.So when I got the car in June88301:01:00.239 --> 01:01:06.480and was getting just fifty percent ofthe advertised range fifty percent, I was88401:01:06.559 --> 01:01:08.800very disappointed. But I hope coolerweather, would you know, help make88501:01:08.840 --> 01:01:13.679it better. Over the past fewweeks, temperatures have cooled and it has88601:01:13.760 --> 01:01:17.119helped. I'm up to about seventypercent of the advertised range. I'm not88701:01:17.199 --> 01:01:22.519in any world ever going to getthe advertised range. Period. Surveys indicate88801:01:22.559 --> 01:01:28.199that about forty percent of Americans areinterested in buying an electric car, So88901:01:28.400 --> 01:01:30.400understand, that means that we gotabout eight percent. Now, there's a89001:01:30.440 --> 01:01:35.239lot of people out there shopping,kicking tires and things. So understand though,89101:01:35.239 --> 01:01:38.199when you go to look for anelectric car, uh, the advertised89201:01:38.320 --> 01:01:43.199range is just not achievable. Now, if you talk to friends that have89301:01:43.239 --> 01:01:46.599electric cars, oh yeah, yeah, I get that they're lying. I89401:01:46.679 --> 01:01:50.760talked to three or four friends thathave Tesla's before I got mine. Oh89501:01:50.840 --> 01:01:52.440yeah, yeah, no no problem. Oh yeah, I go Sanyo Bagna.89601:01:53.079 --> 01:01:59.119They're lying. It says it's thatsimple. Maybe it may be,89701:01:59.360 --> 01:02:01.880and that may be that problem.Maybe why there's a class action lawsuit against89801:02:01.920 --> 01:02:07.920Tesla in California and why the FederalTrades Commissioners investigating Tesla on complaints of false89901:02:08.000 --> 01:02:14.760advertising. And it's not just Tesla, it's all of them. So understand.90001:02:14.960 --> 01:02:19.440If you go into the process knowingthat the advertised mileage is not achievable,90101:02:20.000 --> 01:02:22.800I'm guessing you're gonna have a funexperience. I'm about five months into90201:02:22.840 --> 01:02:27.039this whole thing, and I don'tthink I could go back. It's the90301:02:27.119 --> 01:02:30.039most fun I've ever had a car. But range continues to be a problem.90401:02:30.079 --> 01:02:32.679That's a good thing to travel thatmuch, and you just like town.90501:02:32.880 --> 01:02:36.280I travel all the time in California, but I gotta take the gas90601:02:36.360 --> 01:02:38.639powered car. I actually could getover there and back with the Tesla.90701:02:38.679 --> 01:02:43.679But you're you're talking about twenty minutesin Heel a band to charge, another90801:02:43.760 --> 01:02:46.519twenty minutes in Yuma, and anothertwenty minutes in alcoholne you know it makes90901:02:47.039 --> 01:02:51.320an extra hour. You're talking atleast an extra hour to get there.91001:02:51.880 --> 01:02:53.400If you can get in the gaspowered car and stopping Yuma for gas,91101:02:53.400 --> 01:02:58.719that's it. Why wouldn't you dothat? Exactly? You have room for91201:02:58.760 --> 01:03:06.119an extra car if you gross Ido. Speaking of d v's, Elon91301:03:06.199 --> 01:03:09.039Musk has been concerned about the costof EV's, and Monday, the company91401:03:09.079 --> 01:03:14.199announced they'll be building an EV inGermany that's going to sell for twenty seven91501:03:14.280 --> 01:03:19.360thousand dollars. Cool. Cool.Speaking of Elon Musk, his Neuralink is91601:03:19.400 --> 01:03:22.920looking for volunteers to take a chipof their brain out or their skull out,91701:03:22.960 --> 01:03:24.760so they could put the chip in. How crazy is that? And91801:03:24.800 --> 01:03:29.159they actually have people that want himto do that. A lot of people91901:03:29.199 --> 01:03:32.760take out a chunk up your skulland replace it with a chip. It's92001:03:32.840 --> 01:03:36.800like, so they can just dokind of like, isn't it mind controlling92101:03:36.800 --> 01:03:38.400the sense of like they can dothings with their mind? Yeah, like92201:03:38.480 --> 01:03:42.400they can you can search, Yeah, you can search things with their mind.92301:03:42.599 --> 01:03:44.719I just have to wonder what's wrongwith your life that you would be92401:03:44.719 --> 01:03:47.920willing to do. However, DaveI was just thinking about that if you92501:03:47.960 --> 01:03:52.400were if we were in you know, the seventeen hundreds, everyone's on East92601:03:52.400 --> 01:03:57.119coast and someone's telling you, hey, you can go across the country and92701:03:57.199 --> 01:04:00.800you can get free lined land.Oh you just go to the organ you92801:04:00.840 --> 01:04:02.000know, go to Oregon you getfree land. Go to Oklahoma you get92901:04:02.000 --> 01:04:06.119free land. All these crazy things, and you realize those people were pioneers,93001:04:06.239 --> 01:04:10.719right. They risked everything, theyrisk their life. They're going somewhere93101:04:10.760 --> 01:04:14.559where there's no law, there's noorder, and really someone else controls that93201:04:14.639 --> 01:04:16.039land right now. They have toprotect themselves, and that is it's all93301:04:16.039 --> 01:04:18.239word of mouth. You say,hey, there's golden California, and these93401:04:18.239 --> 01:04:21.360people in Virginia are like, Okay, I'm going let's do it. You93501:04:21.360 --> 01:04:25.599know. So I think that's alwaysa human spirit. Now every human has93601:04:25.639 --> 01:04:29.199it. I think the majority ofhumans don't, and it is sometimes irresponsible93701:04:29.239 --> 01:04:32.159and leads to ruin, but forsome people it leads to a lot of93801:04:32.159 --> 01:04:35.679success. So I think it's justpart of that human spirit of I want93901:04:35.679 --> 01:04:40.000to be the first, I wantto try something new. I'm okay with94001:04:40.039 --> 01:04:42.559the risks that come along with it. When our client Mike shit't be in94101:04:42.599 --> 01:04:45.199that article, I go, yougot to be gidding me, really exactly,94201:04:45.239 --> 01:04:46.920people that are willing to do this, Oh, certainly. I mean94301:04:47.079 --> 01:04:51.599speaking of client articles. We alwaysappreciate when clients sending articles because we like94401:04:51.679 --> 01:04:57.000the engagement. You know, Acouple of weeks ago talked about the real94501:04:57.079 --> 01:05:02.840cost of electric vehicles and how itObviously, when you're fueling your electric vehicle,94601:05:03.039 --> 01:05:08.199only thirty three percent of it isreally alternative because the electric grid that's94701:05:08.239 --> 01:05:13.280sixty six percent of it still runson fossil fuels. This is an interesting94801:05:13.320 --> 01:05:16.679headline. Now, the headline sayscost of fueling an electric vehicle is equivalent94901:05:16.760 --> 01:05:20.800to seventeen dollars and thirty three centsper gallon. Now I looked into it95001:05:21.000 --> 01:05:26.000this whole article, and I thinkabout half of what they used as that95101:05:26.039 --> 01:05:30.400seventeen thirty three is pretty debatable.You have the listeners an example of some95201:05:30.440 --> 01:05:35.239of the silliness they're using here,Like one of them was federal and state95301:05:35.280 --> 01:05:42.480EV buyer tax credits and rebates.So obviously these EV buyers are getting rebates,95401:05:42.880 --> 01:05:45.199we as taxpayers are paying for that, so that should be factored into95501:05:45.239 --> 01:05:50.280the cost of the overall vehicle,right, things like California and other states.95601:05:50.280 --> 01:05:55.119They're extra mandates and credits that areon top of the federal and normal95701:05:55.159 --> 01:05:59.320state credits. Something that is reallyinteresting that I didn't really know about was95801:05:59.360 --> 01:06:02.079the corporate average fuel economy the cavecredits. You have know anything about that?95901:06:02.159 --> 01:06:06.719Yeah, So the cave credits forpeople who don't know, is for96001:06:08.199 --> 01:06:13.960these automakers, they have to havea certain amount of fuel economy for all96101:06:13.960 --> 01:06:17.519their fleets of cars that they're producing. Now the FED wants to basically make96201:06:17.559 --> 01:06:24.000them more towards I guess energy efficientwould be the word, Yeah, something96301:06:24.039 --> 01:06:28.960like that. So Tesla, whichyou can obviously the number one EVE producer,96401:06:29.360 --> 01:06:34.599has the most CAVE credits because overallthey produce producing all these energy efficient96501:06:34.679 --> 01:06:38.800vehicles, so they have an abundanceof these cave credits. Well, people96601:06:38.880 --> 01:06:42.280like Toyota, for example, Idon't know. I'm sure they're at a96701:06:42.320 --> 01:06:45.239deficit because the majority of their carsthey produce are still gas or semi hybrid,96801:06:45.360 --> 01:06:50.199right, So they have to goout and actually buy credits from companies96901:06:50.239 --> 01:06:55.599like Tesla who have an abundance ofthem to make to meet their CAVE standards.97001:06:55.719 --> 01:06:58.960Big part of income, Yeah,in fact, one point seven to97101:06:58.960 --> 01:07:03.159eight billion in twenty twenty two addedto Tesla's bottom line just from Cave credits.97201:07:03.679 --> 01:07:10.639So it's very interesting add that Cavecredit on top of Tesla's energy chargers.97301:07:10.760 --> 01:07:13.440Yeah, that you start to realizeper cend of the company's revenue.97401:07:13.559 --> 01:07:15.480Yeah, and then one point seveneight I don't know what percentage that is97501:07:15.519 --> 01:07:19.440of the revenue, but it's probablya pretty big sum as well. You97601:07:19.480 --> 01:07:24.320know, you start to see thatTesla's not just a car producer, right,97701:07:24.079 --> 01:07:28.800right, But the idea of anelectric vehicle only costing a dollar and97801:07:28.840 --> 01:07:32.679twenty one cents per gallon is alsoa misnomber. And that's what the advertised97901:07:32.760 --> 01:07:36.960kind of you're saving yourself so muchmoney on gas compared to people who are98001:07:36.960 --> 01:07:40.679out there paying four dollars a gownand you're paying one twenty one by just98101:07:40.719 --> 01:07:44.079paying electric costs. Now, that'snot true either, because you're really not98201:07:44.719 --> 01:07:47.559lumping in all the external costs thatyou're charging, you know what I mean.98301:07:47.639 --> 01:07:51.639So I think it's somewhere in arange of the middle, probably closer98401:07:51.639 --> 01:07:57.760to like the average price the normalcar pays. But I just I love98501:07:58.360 --> 01:08:01.440bringing up different sides of the ofthe opinions of this whole space. It's98601:08:01.440 --> 01:08:06.800a it's ever changing space. Obviously. The most incredible stat that I saw98701:08:06.800 --> 01:08:11.679in this article, though, wasToyota estimates that the batteries from one EV98801:08:11.880 --> 01:08:16.279power one EV battery can power ninetyhybrids, which would reduce emissions thirty seven98901:08:16.359 --> 01:08:19.600more times than just one EV would. I think the one thing that whenever99001:08:19.680 --> 01:08:23.479I see and of course, likeyou say to the headline jumps off the99101:08:23.479 --> 01:08:26.880page at just seventeen dollars a gallon, you know it's a real cost I've99201:08:26.920 --> 01:08:29.079run and they start to look intoit, and you go, this is99301:08:29.119 --> 01:08:32.199just silly. The first thing Ilook at when I when I see an99401:08:32.279 --> 01:08:38.079article like that is, Okay,who's writing this? What? What do99501:08:38.119 --> 01:08:43.279they have a horse in this race? Is this a credible source? Okay?99601:08:43.319 --> 01:08:48.520This Center for Public Policy a foundation, right is a right wing Texas99701:08:48.800 --> 01:08:57.239think tank who's primary primarily funded byExon and Chevron gee, and they're writing99801:08:57.319 --> 01:09:01.600a negative article about electric vehicles rightthe same way as if you look at99901:09:01.680 --> 01:09:04.840who wrote the one dollar twenty onecents per gallon? Absolutely no, and100001:09:05.119 --> 01:09:09.640I absolutely but I think it's importantto the listeners out there that if you100101:09:09.720 --> 01:09:13.920see these types of things, andfor whatever reason, uh, electric vehicles100201:09:13.960 --> 01:09:17.319have become somewhat political, and Iwish they wouldn't because they're simply a new100301:09:17.399 --> 01:09:19.920don't even know if it's necessarily political, though, Dave, because think about100401:09:19.920 --> 01:09:24.039gold, right, when gold getsall this attention around it, all of100501:09:24.039 --> 01:09:26.479a sudden, people are talking shutup by bull because all these things are100601:09:26.479 --> 01:09:29.760getting sent out them, and it'sjust look at the fine print. Who's100701:09:29.800 --> 01:09:32.520selling this to you, right,the person who had they want to get100801:09:32.600 --> 01:09:35.279rid of it. So there's areason they want to get rid of it100901:09:36.000 --> 01:09:42.399anyway, that the no matter whatyou're you're reading, if it's if it101001:09:42.439 --> 01:09:45.640seems far off, check the source, just check who wrote it. And101101:09:45.159 --> 01:09:47.520if maybe they've got a horse inthe race. I mean, certainly it's101201:09:47.560 --> 01:09:53.359to the benefit of Chevron and Exxonfor electric vehicles to not be get too101301:09:53.399 --> 01:09:56.479hot. Right, the cars werepolitical for a little bit, so much101401:09:56.520 --> 01:09:59.760anymore, but they definitely wore Afew years ago, I had a friend101501:09:59.840 --> 01:10:02.640said, I really if you werea left wing wackle, Yeah, not101601:10:02.720 --> 01:10:06.399a left wing wackle. It wasstrictly intellectual. There's the reason I got101701:10:06.439 --> 01:10:10.119it. It was intellectual. Andnow that I've had it for a while.101801:10:10.159 --> 01:10:15.119I really like it. I've gota neighbor who's a who's a strong101901:10:15.199 --> 01:10:17.760Democrat that supports a lot of theDemocratic candidates, and he was giving me102001:10:17.800 --> 01:10:21.159crap the other day about something andI said, Hey, who has a102101:10:21.199 --> 01:10:25.840tesla in this neighborhood? He chuckled. Oh, he had gone to a102201:10:25.840 --> 01:10:30.039fundraiser with Bill Clinton last weekend andapparently the largest bank on Thursday got hacked.102301:10:30.159 --> 01:10:33.239You hear about this which one?Yeah, the largest bank in the102401:10:33.239 --> 01:10:36.119world. I didn't know that.Do you know who the largest bank in102501:10:36.119 --> 01:10:39.000the world. I didn't know thisis the name. Do you know,102601:10:39.079 --> 01:10:42.479Dave, who's the largest bank inthe world? ICBC? Oh? Really,102701:10:42.560 --> 01:10:44.119yeah, I've never heard of it. I would have stopt bank,102801:10:44.159 --> 01:10:47.960maybe say like JP Morgan, moreof an investment bank type thing. Yeah,102901:10:48.039 --> 01:10:50.800they're huge, but either way.It was actually the US arm of103001:10:50.880 --> 01:10:56.000China's mega lender ICBC. It washit by a ransomware attack and so all103101:10:56.039 --> 01:10:58.920their they do a lot of treasurypurchases, they had to stop all their103201:10:58.960 --> 01:11:00.960treasury purchase can't all of them,And they actually had to use a USB103301:11:01.079 --> 01:11:06.279stick and manually transported across Manhattan tosend settlement details on that day. So103401:11:06.319 --> 01:11:10.760it was a little fascinating story there. It doesn't really mean anything, though,103501:11:11.000 --> 01:11:15.359that's absolutely amazing. It means thatno matter how secure you think you103601:11:15.439 --> 01:11:17.720are, people can get into it. Yeah, don't click the random links103701:11:17.760 --> 01:11:21.800in your emaough. They make thoseso real now they do. I got103801:11:21.800 --> 01:11:25.720two on Friday that just said theDOCU signed stuff that I had to sign.103901:11:25.840 --> 01:11:29.399Oh yeah, common ye, butI got too in more like an104001:11:29.479 --> 01:11:33.560hour. Yeah. Look what thereturn addresses on them? Another fake because104101:11:33.560 --> 01:11:36.720I have nothing to sign. Yeah. My Amazon Prime account's been canceled.104201:11:36.800 --> 01:11:40.840My Netflix has been canceled. Youknow, click here to fix it.104301:11:40.920 --> 01:11:44.560Oh yeah, right, yeah,that's what I'm gonna do. All right.104401:11:45.760 --> 01:11:46.600Well, next segment, we wantto talk a little bit about the104501:11:46.600 --> 01:11:48.880Federal Reserve that came out, Notthe Federal Reserve, sorry, i RS104601:11:48.960 --> 01:11:51.640came out with new text tables,so we'll have some fun. Yea through104701:11:51.640 --> 01:11:54.960all that tables, man, youcan make a little bit more money.104801:11:55.079 --> 01:11:58.119Yeah, actually, yeah, gothrough all the deduction went down, which104901:11:58.159 --> 01:12:00.079is great. All right, guys, we'll be right back. This is105001:12:00.079 --> 01:12:03.039the Bunny Matter Show. As youknow, we appreciate your listening. You105101:12:03.119 --> 01:12:06.720want more, just go to ourwebsite and go to the YouTube. You105201:12:06.840 --> 01:12:11.439find all the shows and the IPthe podcast you can listen to any time105301:12:11.479 --> 01:12:15.439you want and go back and getsome more information. We will be right105401:12:15.479 --> 01:12:30.319back. Say it's only a name. Welcome back, everybody. Money Matter105501:12:30.399 --> 01:12:32.880Show. Got a couple of segmentsleft. Hey, guess what You can105601:12:32.920 --> 01:12:36.119make more money and pay less ontaxes right now? That is true.105701:12:36.199 --> 01:12:42.359It looks like the IRIS increase taxablebrackets by about five percent on the income105801:12:42.479 --> 01:12:45.279level. What that means is ifyou're at that ten percent income bracket instead105901:12:45.279 --> 01:12:49.479of eleven thousand, now it's ateleven than six hundred, and for twenty106001:12:49.520 --> 01:12:53.119two percent in sead of forty three, it's at forty seven. So basically106101:12:53.159 --> 01:12:55.439five percent for all the income bracks. That did a little bit of math106201:12:55.680 --> 01:13:00.199roughly around there, so you canmake roughly about five percent still still be106301:13:00.279 --> 01:13:02.279in that same tax I would sayprobably around four percent just to be safe,106401:13:02.840 --> 01:13:08.159so you're make it about two fifty. You make a number twelve thousand,106501:13:08.279 --> 01:13:11.560five hundred and still being the sametax practice last year. Yeah,106601:13:11.640 --> 01:13:14.199yeah, no, yeah, exactly. So it is a nice thing.106701:13:14.319 --> 01:13:16.600We are going to be paying alittle bit less. But it also we're106801:13:16.640 --> 01:13:20.479paying moreation, we're paying more taxeson, so security was paying more taxes106901:13:20.520 --> 01:13:30.079on. We all have an awfullylot more interest income. Yes, yeah,107001:13:30.079 --> 01:13:34.479we're probably should have. The standarddeduction is also increasing. For married107101:13:34.479 --> 01:13:39.199couples, it's increasing the twenty ninethousand, two hundred. For individuals it's107201:13:39.239 --> 01:13:42.760at fourteen thousand, six hundred now, and for head of households it's up107301:13:42.760 --> 01:13:46.239to twenty one nine hundred. Butjust think about that, all the savings107401:13:46.279 --> 01:13:50.840in the country times five percent.Yeah, because last year was making nothing,107501:13:50.960 --> 01:13:54.600well we all know, we know, Dave, that's not true.107601:13:55.119 --> 01:14:00.640And because how many people have comein here with huge sums of money sitting107701:14:00.680 --> 01:14:02.920and checkings, huge sums of moneysitting and savings, and they're saying,107801:14:03.079 --> 01:14:06.439I feel like I should be anymore. Yeah, you should be,107901:14:06.439 --> 01:14:11.600because a lot of those people justhave not reacted. But the point is,108001:14:11.720 --> 01:14:15.760okay, let's be conservative. Let'ssay three percent more on every dollar108101:14:15.920 --> 01:14:18.039in savings in this country. Right, it's going to be revenue. However,108201:14:19.039 --> 01:14:23.479we're also paying that out on thetreasury side, which who picks step108301:14:23.800 --> 01:14:27.199day. We're not going to balancethe budget. I got the interest on108401:14:27.239 --> 01:14:30.479the back of interest, you know, because we're still paying it. We're108501:14:30.479 --> 01:14:32.520getting it, but we're paying itright back. Youtic. We're going to108601:14:32.600 --> 01:14:39.239balance the budget. It had touchspending and spending and spending this shop.108701:14:39.319 --> 01:14:43.600There is an increase in the gifttax that you can do. The annual108801:14:43.640 --> 01:14:46.159exclusion, which we learned from Johnisn't really as important as we thought it108901:14:46.239 --> 01:14:50.479was. They want you to reportif it's over now eighteen thousand for twenty109001:14:50.520 --> 01:14:54.760twenty, eighteen seventeen, Yes,okay, but we learned from John it's109101:14:54.760 --> 01:14:59.000really just reporting that. It's notnecessarily that your taxes or anything. Right109201:14:59.279 --> 01:15:02.840talk with the tax Any person inthis country can give eighteen thousand dollars to109301:15:03.000 --> 01:15:06.960any other person period and you don'thave to be a family member. And109401:15:06.960 --> 01:15:10.600if you and your husband, ifyou're married, you can give thirty six109501:15:10.680 --> 01:15:14.720thousand dollars per year to anybody,which to me doesn't make any sense because109601:15:14.760 --> 01:15:17.199this what's the six hundred dollars Zellthing? Is that a thing the six109701:15:17.239 --> 01:15:20.439hundred dollars like if you send someonemore than six hundred dollars then it has109801:15:20.479 --> 01:15:24.920to be reported or like they're tryingto do a six hundred dollars thing because109901:15:24.960 --> 01:15:29.039they're trying to get people off VENMOto make a bit like who are doing110001:15:29.119 --> 01:15:31.159business off that? Then? Right, So if it's six hundred dollars constantly110101:15:31.199 --> 01:15:35.359or something like that, they makeit reported as business. Remember it's only110201:15:35.319 --> 01:15:41.199a gift tax, so you canreduce your own your own a state later110301:15:41.279 --> 01:15:45.600on. The basic exclusion amount forestates now is going to increase in twenty110401:15:45.680 --> 01:15:48.319twenty four to thirteen point six million. That's up from twelve point nine million,110501:15:48.479 --> 01:15:51.319right, and then eventually it dropsif they don't make that permanent,110601:15:53.000 --> 01:15:56.479right, because in twenty twenty six, I believe there's the sunset, is110701:15:56.479 --> 01:16:00.159it twenty six, twenty five ortwenty six, will about that John to110801:16:00.199 --> 01:16:03.039be to reduce it by five milliondollars. Yeah, and then in two110901:16:03.119 --> 01:16:08.520years and twenty five we get thereset and the tax brackets if nothing's done.111001:16:08.560 --> 01:16:12.359So for all you Republicans probably hopethat Trump gets in so it doesn't111101:16:12.399 --> 01:16:16.760get reset, but not just independentRepublicans. Yeah, gets it. Yeah,111201:16:16.760 --> 01:16:19.520I just I think I'm I youknow, I think I'm with you111301:16:19.600 --> 01:16:23.880that I'm just tired of being weak. Yeah, I'm tired of being a111401:16:23.880 --> 01:16:27.600weak country. I'm tired of peopletaking advantage. I'm tired of Hamas think111501:16:27.600 --> 01:16:30.359and then get away with what theydid. I'm tired of Russia and North111601:16:30.439 --> 01:16:34.239Korea and trying to think and theycan get away with what they're doing because111701:16:34.239 --> 01:16:38.720we're so weak. But it's tough, though, Dave, because you just111801:16:38.720 --> 01:16:43.199said we're weak, but that usnot allowing those people to do that.111901:16:43.279 --> 01:16:46.199I agree, it's horrible, butthat means us sending money, and the112001:16:46.279 --> 01:16:50.720problem is been us sending money.No, I do it anyway. Or112101:16:50.760 --> 01:16:57.560someone's sitting in you're pointed death ofyeah, the White House that you're scared112201:16:57.560 --> 01:17:00.000of, the death of one thedeath of this guy. Let's just see112301:17:00.079 --> 01:17:02.439if Trump was in right now whathe would be doing. When they're saying112401:17:02.439 --> 01:17:08.079we fully support Israel. Okay,all your all your people that think that112501:17:08.119 --> 01:17:12.600you're going to go ahead and protestagainst Israel and genocide are the Jews and112601:17:12.600 --> 01:17:15.520and all that will be considered crimes. I also can't imagine it would have112701:17:15.560 --> 01:17:18.399never happened, because the piece ofcord would still be in place. And112801:17:18.479 --> 01:17:21.319not only that, but I thinkI don't wouldn't say what happened. A112901:17:21.439 --> 01:17:28.279less probability of it happening and wouldn'thave any economic ability to go ahead exactly113001:17:28.319 --> 01:17:32.079fund and that that was their majorityfunder was Iran. They have there.113101:17:32.199 --> 01:17:35.600I just hope that that this continuesto be about where it is now and113201:17:35.720 --> 01:17:40.760just until they get Hamas cleaned upand we get on with our lives.113301:17:41.000 --> 01:17:43.800But they're they're doing it. They'retaking what about a third of the tunnels113401:17:43.840 --> 01:17:46.720now have been destroyed. I don'tunderstand. They're gonna wipe out an entire113501:17:47.000 --> 01:17:50.000area. Yeah, okay, andthen they have to build it back up.113601:17:50.159 --> 01:17:55.039Look at the Ukraine, it's thesame thing. It's like, I113701:17:55.079 --> 01:17:57.840don't I don't get it. Imean, why don't we keep repeating ourselves113801:17:57.880 --> 01:18:01.479And I say this all the time. If we didn't have these governments,113901:18:02.239 --> 01:18:06.960we wouldn't have these wars. Andyou know that Godza is not going to114001:18:08.000 --> 01:18:13.239rebuild Gaza. No Israel will.It'll be Israel Israel oil. And they're114101:18:13.239 --> 01:18:15.720going to try to say, well, make it its own state. Hell114201:18:15.800 --> 01:18:19.159no, okay, listen, youcan do this, say we'll still while114301:18:19.199 --> 01:18:23.760you come in. This is yourcountry. We're not going through the mistakes114401:18:23.760 --> 01:18:27.199we've done again, We're not.And you can come in and work.114501:18:27.279 --> 01:18:29.920You can be part of what wedo, just like they do. Now114601:18:30.000 --> 01:18:34.159put your own government in and notHamas. We have a large percentage of114701:18:34.199 --> 01:18:43.039the israel population is Hamas. Andalso I'm sorry I missfolk palest Indians.114801:18:43.039 --> 01:18:45.880But this is also a big deal. If you compare Ukraine size as the114901:18:45.880 --> 01:18:49.079country compared to the size of Gaza, right, we're talking about very vastly115001:18:49.119 --> 01:18:54.079different sizes here. Those thint Gazahave a ton of oil too. I115101:18:54.079 --> 01:18:56.600don't know, I don't think so. I don't think about it having a115201:18:56.640 --> 01:19:00.439fifty plus billion dollars with oil orsomething like that. Ground said. But115301:19:00.560 --> 01:19:04.560remember Gaza, no, no,no, not Gaza government or whatever it115401:19:04.600 --> 01:19:06.760is. But like in the ground, is that what they're fighting over the115501:19:06.840 --> 01:19:13.640land? Keep in mind, Gazais about the geographic size of Tucson,115601:19:14.279 --> 01:19:17.199right, and that's it's going tobe. It's still horrible and not saying115701:19:17.239 --> 01:19:20.880that, but it's going to beeasier to rebuild, which is one hundred115801:19:20.880 --> 01:19:26.279and seventy five miles Tucson's metros twotwenty five two sons bigger than Gozza.115901:19:26.960 --> 01:19:31.079The metro, the metro layout.Dean of Tucson, Yeah, and I116001:19:31.079 --> 01:19:33.239know We've talked about the couple oftimes, but all these people that are116101:19:33.279 --> 01:19:36.039like, that's the biggest open airprison in the world. Last time I116201:19:36.119 --> 01:19:41.119checked, North Korea is a littlea little bit bigger than Gozza. So116301:19:42.000 --> 01:19:45.119absolutely, Hey, did you seethat We talked a couple of weeks ago116401:19:45.159 --> 01:19:48.680about Instacart. Uh, this isremember we we couldn't figure out what why116501:19:48.720 --> 01:19:53.640we needed instacart. They delivered groceries. Yeah, the grocery stores are delivering.116601:19:54.159 --> 01:19:58.239There's a lot of people delivering groceries, but the grocery delivery cover.116701:19:58.359 --> 01:20:01.560They came public in mid September atthirty bucks a share immediately jumped to forty116801:20:01.600 --> 01:20:05.439three, which is where we kindof started scratching our heads. Over the116901:20:05.479 --> 01:20:12.439next few weeks, it dropped downto twenty three and had been slowly edging117001:20:12.520 --> 01:20:15.520higher until Thursday, when they plungedback to the low on disappointing quarter,117101:20:15.800 --> 01:20:19.520and Jim Kramer said the grocery shoppingis not that big a problem for most117201:20:19.640 --> 01:20:25.159people. They did get several upgradeson Friday, But isn't it amazing how117301:20:25.159 --> 01:20:29.199it goes from thirty jumps to fortythree and then from forty three back to117401:20:29.239 --> 01:20:31.159twenty three, just like that.Yeah, and that's I mean, that's117501:20:31.159 --> 01:20:33.119the biggest player in that game rightnow. But I mean, like you117601:20:33.119 --> 01:20:36.000said, it's getting saturated by Dean. You and I were in the business117701:20:36.000 --> 01:20:41.720when krispy Kreme was all that,right, and then they finally I'll tell117801:20:41.760 --> 01:20:44.840you what krispy Kreme. I remember, it was so special. The wholesalers117901:20:44.880 --> 01:20:47.439would bring Krispy Kreme, and thelife insurance guy it would bring krispy Kreme.118001:20:47.520 --> 01:20:50.880You wanted to impress a broker's firmor a bank, you know,118101:20:50.960 --> 01:20:57.359you bring him krispy Kreme. Thatwas special. About two three four years118201:20:57.399 --> 01:21:01.239after this broke, I went intoWalgreens one and there was a display of118301:21:01.359 --> 01:21:06.800Krispy Kreme in Walgreens. I said, well, there goes the uniqueness of118401:21:06.840 --> 01:21:10.760it. Came back to the officethe next day, sold every share of118501:21:10.840 --> 01:21:13.960Krispy Kreme we had, and ofcourse to that point it went bankrupt.118601:21:14.079 --> 01:21:19.520Ultimately went bankrupt, became public againin twenty twenty one, and immediately jumped118701:21:19.560 --> 01:21:23.359to twenty one dollars. In thelast two and a half years, it's118801:21:23.399 --> 01:21:27.520been as low as ten, beenhanging out in the low teens. It118901:21:27.640 --> 01:21:30.720was down seven percent on Thursday aftertheir most recent quarter. Disappointed in that.119001:21:30.760 --> 01:21:35.680Well, here we go again.So TLT, which we have familiarity119101:21:35.760 --> 01:21:40.399here with, we've started in asmall position in there is For people who119201:21:40.399 --> 01:21:45.359don't know, TLT is a USTreasury twenty plus year Treasury bond ETF.119301:21:45.479 --> 01:21:48.439So we're talking about bond funds andwhy it's a problem to be in it119401:21:48.479 --> 01:21:53.319when interstrates are going up, butwhen instrates are going down, it's actually119501:21:53.399 --> 01:21:56.520a really nice place to be becausenot only do you get the interest of119601:21:56.520 --> 01:21:59.319the ETF, but you will alsoI mean sorry, the dividend of the119701:21:59.319 --> 01:22:01.800ETF, but you will also getthe gain if interest rates go down on119801:22:01.840 --> 01:22:06.159the bond itself, because longer datedbonds will appreciate more when interest rates go119901:22:06.279 --> 01:22:12.800down than shorter dated bonds. Sothe reason I'm bringing all this up is120001:22:12.920 --> 01:22:19.760TLT is actually the third most inflowedfund ETF this year. Interesting the top120101:22:19.800 --> 01:22:25.560two V and IVV, which areboth S and P five hundred ETFs.120201:22:25.720 --> 01:22:30.439So you start to look at there'sa large amount of money going into TLT.120301:22:30.640 --> 01:22:33.479A lot of money managers or alot of institutions are starting to hedge120401:22:33.479 --> 01:22:39.359and getting long duration added back intotheir portfolios. Now. It's been a120501:22:39.399 --> 01:22:43.640falling knife trade for a lot ofpeople lately, and we've kind of been120601:22:43.640 --> 01:22:46.479part of it, but knowing thatwhen its trades reverse here, it's gonna120701:22:46.479 --> 01:22:49.279be a really nice way to hedgethe portfolio, because honestly, if we120801:22:49.319 --> 01:22:53.159do see a big drop in interestrates, we probably should see a big120901:22:53.239 --> 01:22:57.960drop in stocks, and that appreciationthe TLT will help offset some of that.121001:22:58.239 --> 01:23:00.960We talked a lot about how wewent to all short term securities in121101:23:01.000 --> 01:23:05.840our fixed income side in March oftwenty one, and we were about six121201:23:05.880 --> 01:23:10.880months early, maybe nine months early, and we were sitting there not getting121301:23:11.239 --> 01:23:14.560the level of interest that you getin longer term bonds, but feeling like121401:23:14.600 --> 01:23:15.760we were going to be in theright place. Interest rates to weere zero,121501:23:15.800 --> 01:23:19.720they had to go higher, andsure enough than twenty two they exploded121601:23:19.800 --> 01:23:25.720higher, and our individual short termbonds held in there. We didn't lose121701:23:25.920 --> 01:23:30.800much of anything. I think onaverage, we probably preserved ten percent of121801:23:30.319 --> 01:23:36.760our account what you would have lostmost people have a thirty or forty percent121901:23:36.840 --> 01:23:43.079position in fixed income. I wasdown twenty percent. I'm figuring we saved122001:23:43.079 --> 01:23:47.159about ten percent of the firm bythat move. Now we've gotten up to122101:23:47.159 --> 01:23:50.520where interest rates are at a sixteenyear high. Before they were at a122201:23:50.600 --> 01:23:54.880multi decade low, at a multidecade low. I don't want to own122301:23:54.960 --> 01:23:59.239bonds at a sixteen year high.I want to start to buy a little122401:23:59.239 --> 01:24:01.439bit of that teen year high.And so we bought one and a half122501:24:01.479 --> 01:24:04.079percent. Then it went a littlehigher, but another one and a half122601:24:04.119 --> 01:24:08.680percent. So we do have aposition in TLT Right now. We're slightly122701:24:08.760 --> 01:24:15.319underwater because rates have stayed pretty high, but I think that that that's something122801:24:15.319 --> 01:24:18.319that you can look at. Don'tdon't be too short term right now.122901:24:18.319 --> 01:24:23.039I've got a couple of clients thatare just rolling ninety day t bills.123001:24:23.279 --> 01:24:28.399When interest rates do start to fall, and Goldman Sachs believes they will this123101:24:28.520 --> 01:24:31.880year, you're going to want tobe in a little bit longer dated paper.123201:24:32.159 --> 01:24:34.399You're going to take a you wantto lock those in. I'd say123301:24:34.439 --> 01:24:38.960right now, I lock some ofthis yield in for at least five years.123401:24:39.479 --> 01:24:42.960Yeah, coming up to the topof the segment, we'll be right123501:24:43.000 --> 01:24:45.359back. This is the moneymout ofshow. We all appreciate that you listen123601:24:47.920 --> 01:24:56.439say it's only a man. Welcomeback, everybody. It's the moneymout of123701:24:56.520 --> 01:25:00.920shell talked about a lot of stufftoday. Yeah, and the most important123801:25:00.920 --> 01:25:05.800thing is to remind everyone that wegot a Federal Employee Benefits workshop going on123901:25:05.800 --> 01:25:11.920on December thirteenth at Tucson Association Relativeshere and tuson. So please go to124001:25:11.920 --> 01:25:14.680our website Greenberg Financial dot com.A big pop up will pop up.124101:25:14.720 --> 01:25:17.039You can't learn more. We sentto our Federal Employees page. You can124201:25:17.119 --> 01:25:19.439learn all about what we do forfederal employees and at the bottom of the124301:25:19.439 --> 01:25:24.680page you can click register and ityou'll get directed to our event bright page124401:25:24.920 --> 01:25:28.279have all the information about the event. You can register. It's completely free124501:25:28.359 --> 01:25:30.640and you can also ask your agencyfor Form S F one to eighty two124601:25:30.680 --> 01:25:34.600and possibly get a paid day offfor attending the event as well. Not124701:25:34.640 --> 01:25:36.560only go ahead, No, Iwas gonna say. Yeah, it's an124801:25:36.600 --> 01:25:42.039all day retirement seminar for federal employeesand it goes into details and depths of124901:25:42.119 --> 01:25:45.239all the different avenue you can takeand everything with it. You know,125001:25:45.279 --> 01:25:48.279and if you're listening to the showand happen to know a federal employe,125101:25:48.319 --> 01:25:54.960because the only reason not to attendthis if you're nearing retirement of the federal125201:25:54.960 --> 01:25:58.239employee is because you don't know aboutit. I mean, that is the125301:25:58.279 --> 01:26:00.479only reason that you wouldn't go tothis. So if you know someone,125401:26:00.479 --> 01:26:02.640if you have a family member,if you have a neighbor, if you125501:26:02.680 --> 01:26:08.720have somebody in your life who's afederal employee who's nearing retirement, please tell125601:26:08.760 --> 01:26:12.239them about this. Please have themget a hold of us, no obligation,125701:26:12.720 --> 01:26:16.000a great seminar, free launch,free financial plan, get them on125801:26:16.039 --> 01:26:20.880the right track. Let them knowthat this is coming. Because I have125901:26:21.359 --> 01:26:26.720a gallon my church who's a federalemployee who's been talking about retirement. I126001:26:26.760 --> 01:26:29.479mentioned a erching. Oh it's great, you know, sign me up.126101:26:29.560 --> 01:26:33.319Let's do this. Do that foryour friends, do that for your relatives,126201:26:33.560 --> 01:26:36.840for your neighbor. Let them knowthis thing is coming. So I126301:26:36.880 --> 01:26:43.319had an interesting comparison I saw lastyesterday on CNBC where they were talking about126401:26:43.479 --> 01:26:48.159how the Nasdaq for a long whiledidn't really have an ETF that was popular126501:26:48.399 --> 01:26:55.159that was used by money managers untilQQQ was first established in nineteen ninety nine.126601:26:56.319 --> 01:27:02.159When that happened, the anticipation ofthat QQQ being accessible to the public,126701:27:02.439 --> 01:27:05.359you saw a huge run up inthe Nasdaq, which is kind of126801:27:05.359 --> 01:27:09.600a misnomber because also in that timewas a dot com bubble yep. But126901:27:09.640 --> 01:27:14.399the reason I bring that up isonce QQQ became online, the Nasdaq took127001:27:14.439 --> 01:27:16.840off, and the QQQ was alarge part of that because it gave an127101:27:16.920 --> 01:27:25.039easier access to the index itself.Now the comparison is the Bitcoin spot ETF.127201:27:25.479 --> 01:27:29.880We've seen this big run up inanticipation of the black Rock ETF and127301:27:29.880 --> 01:27:33.399it's the spot black Rock ETF thatthey're trying to file with the s SEC127401:27:33.439 --> 01:27:38.279says that they're possibly going to beapproving it here any week here soon,127501:27:38.399 --> 01:27:41.680so we've seen a huge run up. It's up six percent again this week.127601:27:43.119 --> 01:27:46.159Now. We also saw I thinkwas Ethereum had a huge week,127701:27:46.439 --> 01:27:50.319and it was because Blackrock also saidthat they're going to be looking for a127801:27:50.359 --> 01:27:57.039trust. They want to open upa trust ETF for for ethereum as well,127901:27:57.079 --> 01:28:00.039So they had a really big weekoutperformed Bitcoin even because of it.128001:28:00.319 --> 01:28:03.720Yeah, I noticed that a fiftytwo week high on bitcoin. I believe,128101:28:04.359 --> 01:28:06.279I do believe, Yeah, Ido believe. It's a fit two128201:28:06.319 --> 01:28:10.199week high. I mean, Ithink it's up eighty percent on the year.128301:28:10.479 --> 01:28:14.159That's amazing. It's doing its thing. One of our holdings, a128401:28:14.279 --> 01:28:18.279Win Resorts reported a casino operator,reported revenue and that had income above expectations.128501:28:18.760 --> 01:28:23.720Stock opened ten percent lower at aten month low on Friday. Some128601:28:23.800 --> 01:28:29.319saw the growth in the Macau businesswas a little disappointing. Remember remember the128701:28:29.359 --> 01:28:33.159meme stocks. Yeah, AMC wasprobably one of the biggest meme stocks.128801:28:33.159 --> 01:28:38.399That was one of the first memestocks, the theater company. They jumped128901:28:38.399 --> 01:28:42.279as high as three hundred and ninetythree dollars a share in July of twenty129001:28:42.319 --> 01:28:47.840one. They plunged fourteen percent onThursday to close at an all time low129101:28:48.359 --> 01:28:53.600after announcing they're going to issue moreshares as they battled the stay afloat stock's129201:28:53.600 --> 01:28:57.680what eight dollars from three to ninetythree. I don't look at it every129301:28:57.760 --> 01:29:00.920day. I don't know. Theydid sell some stock at the elevator levels,129401:29:00.920 --> 01:29:05.760but apparently not enough considering their businessis dying. Yeah, it's just129501:29:05.920 --> 01:29:10.079I mean, it's sad to see, but well, talking about bankruptcy is129601:29:10.159 --> 01:29:14.000it sounds like a game Sea's headedfor one. We work got decided to129701:29:14.000 --> 01:29:17.119finally throw in the towel and thatbusiness done. They had a whole documentary129801:29:17.119 --> 01:29:21.439about the owner being some kind ofcrazy like cultish leader. Yes, yes,129901:29:21.479 --> 01:29:26.279I remember that very inch. Ican't think of forty seven dollars that130001:29:26.319 --> 01:29:30.600company just tanked in three forty sevenbillions to nothing. Yep, right goodness130101:29:30.640 --> 01:29:33.560and talking about bankruptcy. Is atotal of fifty companies filed for bankruptcy in130201:29:33.600 --> 01:29:39.640October. That's down from sixty onein September. But we're still on pace130301:29:39.720 --> 01:29:42.920to have the same amount of bankruptcieswe saw in twenty twenty, which is130401:29:42.920 --> 01:29:45.359about double that we saw in twentytwenty two, and will equal the same130501:29:45.399 --> 01:29:48.880amount of bankruptcies we saw in twentyeleven. So companies are having trouble.130601:29:48.880 --> 01:29:53.279We're not hearing about bankruptcies as much, but obviously we work. Other companies130701:29:53.279 --> 01:29:56.399are throwing in the towel here thisyear, yeah, we are. We130801:29:56.479 --> 01:30:00.560are still seeing economic growth, butit is at a slower pace. I130901:30:00.600 --> 01:30:03.760will say that quarterly earnings that havebeen released over the last few weeks have131001:30:03.920 --> 01:30:08.680generally been better than expected, andif you're not better than expected, you131101:30:08.760 --> 01:30:15.479get hammered. The slide is likewhen Friday down ten percent with a good131201:30:15.520 --> 01:30:19.960report because it wasn't quite good enough, you know, and I think you131301:30:20.039 --> 01:30:23.640have to watch. It's kind oflike that Eli Lilly. You know,131401:30:23.680 --> 01:30:28.840they hit an all time high whenthe FDA approved their new weight loss drug,131501:30:29.520 --> 01:30:34.039and the next day it had itsworst day in five years. You131601:30:34.119 --> 01:30:38.760kind of start looking at that andyou go, wait a second, this131701:30:39.039 --> 01:30:45.359is a drug company. They're sellingit ninety times earnings even if the earnings131801:30:45.399 --> 01:30:47.199were to double. And this isa big company, So getting a big131901:30:47.239 --> 01:30:54.079company like that earnings to double noteasy, right. But let's say this132001:30:54.199 --> 01:31:00.199drug becomes one of the greatest thingsever and it actually doubles the earning for132101:31:00.279 --> 01:31:05.880the company, it's still forty fivetimes earnings, which is ludicrous for a132201:31:05.960 --> 01:31:09.640drug company. So I mean,I think that may have been some of132301:31:09.680 --> 01:31:13.479the reasons for the pullback on Thursday, but it was. It was a132401:31:13.560 --> 01:31:15.640huge pullback. And it also youknow, you've got that by the by132501:31:15.680 --> 01:31:19.000the by the rumor, sell thenews. You know, you bid the132601:31:19.039 --> 01:31:24.239stock up. It's one of thehottest stocks all year and hits an all132701:31:24.319 --> 01:31:29.840time high on the announcement and thenkabang down it comes you got a lot132801:31:29.840 --> 01:31:33.239of competition. It's an expensive stock. This new drug that they're they're going132901:31:33.279 --> 01:31:40.800to market is supposed to be allthat dean, but at what price.133001:31:41.760 --> 01:31:44.800AMD in the video had a hugerun up this week, and it's looking133101:31:44.880 --> 01:31:48.359like the semiconductors are having a nicerun here. However, my head remembers133201:31:48.439 --> 01:31:53.439the TSMC report couple. I thinkit's about two months ago. At this133301:31:53.439 --> 01:31:57.079point, they're saying that they're experiencingkind of a a not a backlog,133401:31:57.119 --> 01:32:00.800but the inventories are increasing for them, and so I'm one during if there's133501:32:00.840 --> 01:32:04.800really that level of demand that investorsare pricing into the stock, because we133601:32:04.880 --> 01:32:11.239know semiconductors pees are just as crazyif they are. Taiwan Sammy reported a133701:32:11.239 --> 01:32:15.000good quarter, which is encouraging forcell phone with Apple, it's encouraging for133801:32:15.079 --> 01:32:20.760Qualcomm that that translates well for thosetwo companies. I think it's important.133901:32:20.800 --> 01:32:25.039I think the video will run rightup into its earnings because people are gonna134001:32:25.039 --> 01:32:29.560expect blowout earnings and then you'll seethe people sell off afterwards, no matter134101:32:29.600 --> 01:32:30.920what the earnings are. No,I agree with you, it could be134201:32:30.960 --> 01:32:33.479kind of a lily thing, youknow, I mean, what price,134301:32:34.520 --> 01:32:40.199aren't most of the targets on invideo around five hundred and fifty in there134401:32:40.239 --> 01:32:43.760now five fifty to six fifty.Yea, so got a ways to run.134501:32:43.960 --> 01:32:46.199Literally, he's the lowest I sawsomewhere in there. Yeah, Lily's134601:32:46.239 --> 01:32:54.479average average analyst prices around six thirty, which is where it got so plug134701:32:54.520 --> 01:32:59.560Power remember plug Power probably traded plugPower Power yeays, I think is any134801:32:59.720 --> 01:33:02.319is any broke it that hasn't traded. Plug Power Company spent the last ten134901:33:02.399 --> 01:33:06.960years around two dollars a year.Jumped to seventy five bucks in early twenty135001:33:08.000 --> 01:33:14.039twenty one on growing talk about hydrogencars. Stock drop six dollars at the135101:33:14.039 --> 01:33:18.039open. Excuse me? Stock droppedto six dollars at the open on Friday135201:33:18.199 --> 01:33:25.000on disappoint a disappointing quarter. Theinteresting part about hydrogen cars is that there's135301:33:25.039 --> 01:33:30.560only sixty five hydrogen gas stations inthe entire country, and sixty four of135401:33:30.560 --> 01:33:36.359them are in California. One ofthem's in Hawaii. Imagine if we've got135501:33:36.359 --> 01:33:40.800a hydrogen car in Hawaii, Ihave to go to the gas station.135601:33:42.439 --> 01:33:45.960I think CNBC is going to lookto hire Dave. How's that as their135701:33:45.039 --> 01:33:50.239car expert here Eb's hydrogen. Yeah, is good at it? Well,135801:33:50.359 --> 01:33:54.560yes, I think look to hirethem. You know when my when my135901:33:54.680 --> 01:33:58.520least expired and one of my leastexpired, well, my least expired,136001:33:58.520 --> 01:34:01.880and I got to tell it reallywas an intellectual thing. It wasn't.136101:34:01.880 --> 01:34:05.359I wasn't trying to save the planet. I wasn't. It was really just136201:34:05.399 --> 01:34:10.199trying to understand. You heard somuch good things and so many bad things.136301:34:10.560 --> 01:34:14.960I wanted to experience it. It'snew technology and I wanted to just136401:34:15.000 --> 01:34:18.600see what it was like. Andthere's good things about it, and there's136501:34:18.640 --> 01:34:21.760negative things about it. I wouldsay the only real negative thing is the136601:34:23.119 --> 01:34:26.760is the range, and it's that'sa significant problem. You could have the136701:34:26.800 --> 01:34:29.159greatest car in the world. Ifyou can't take it anywhere, it kind136801:34:29.159 --> 01:34:31.720of doesn't matter. Right, Well, electricity goes out in the house and136901:34:31.760 --> 01:34:34.239you didn't plug in your car thenight before. Yeah, but within two137001:34:34.319 --> 01:34:38.199years the car will be able torun the house. So if my electricity137101:34:38.199 --> 01:34:40.720goes out in my house, Iplug it into the car and electricity comes137201:34:40.720 --> 01:34:43.159back on. The biggest innovation isgoing to be a stake and like at137301:34:43.159 --> 01:34:45.600the sun roof to be solar andit charges white drive. I think the137401:34:45.600 --> 01:34:48.920biggest innovation is going to be atoilet can pull off this solid state battery137501:34:48.960 --> 01:34:54.039thing that's got a thousand mile rangewith a ten minute charge. That's going137601:34:54.079 --> 01:34:56.520to change the world right there,That'll changed the world. Yeah, but137701:34:56.560 --> 01:34:59.640you still got to think about inputcosts. Just because an output is so137801:34:59.640 --> 01:35:01.640beautif well, doesn't mean it's canyou be usable or scalable if the input137901:35:01.640 --> 01:35:04.119costs are not feasible? I'm notsure what you know what, guys,138001:35:04.479 --> 01:35:09.079you're like way behind all. Ijust just look at the jets j I138101:35:09.119 --> 01:35:13.239know you're going there we go,the flying cars coming. Okay, we've138201:35:13.239 --> 01:35:15.119got them. They're gonna come,and that'd be that'll wrap up the whole138301:35:15.199 --> 01:35:19.600Jetson series. We've got the computers, we've got We've got the rumba with138401:35:19.680 --> 01:35:24.000this, the may there they gocleaning the floors, we got the fast138501:35:24.039 --> 01:35:28.960food people. Just what was likein the secondies? What the Jetson's in138601:35:29.000 --> 01:35:32.039the seventies, sixties, sixties andseventies. And they didn't predict neur link138701:35:32.079 --> 01:35:35.039though, our client Mike sent meup sent me a yeah, they might138801:35:35.079 --> 01:35:38.880have. When when George went tosome one of his things, and they138901:35:38.960 --> 01:35:42.239might they put those things on thehead. The Simpsons probably did the biggest139001:35:42.239 --> 01:35:45.199one. David was the one withto the TV. Remember they hit it.139101:35:45.239 --> 01:35:47.159Then you see the person, notthe TV. The take time.139201:35:47.279 --> 01:35:50.800Yeah, face FaceTime. They justthink about all the things that they had.139301:35:51.039 --> 01:35:55.439Yeah. Our client Mike sent mea link on flying cars Thursday.139401:35:55.760 --> 01:35:59.079They're actually the flying car. Yeah. Actually, if you want to be139501:35:59.119 --> 01:36:02.119really interested in technology, watch BlackMirror. No, I just watched the139601:36:02.199 --> 01:36:09.319Jenson's Anything That Came Came True things. He's gonna go home and watch Black139701:36:09.319 --> 01:36:14.880Mirror. Netflix All Black Mirror.Huh, Yeah, it's a Netflix series.139801:36:14.880 --> 01:36:17.920Oh, it's crazy, plug,It's crazy all right, another two139901:36:17.960 --> 01:36:24.079hours gone. I went quick.We'll be back next week. And we140001:36:24.119 --> 01:36:27.560appreciate all of our veterans. Thankyou. Oh yeah, veterans are important140101:36:27.600 --> 01:36:31.520to it. Absolutely. Uh callus, come see us, set up140201:36:31.560 --> 01:36:38.560an appointment. Be happy, behealthy, and we all need to be profitable.