What You NEED to Know Heading into the Fed's Interest Rate Meeting Next Week

100:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,879Good morning everybody. It's that time, Sunday morning, eight o'clock right here200:00:03,919 --> 00:00:07,280at seven ninety katus Tea. It'smoney Matt. It's time with Dean Greenberg300:00:07,559 --> 00:00:10,439and the rest of the crew fromGreenberg Financial Group. We'll talk to you400:00:10,519 --> 00:00:13,919for the next two hours, bringingyour insight to what's going on in the500:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,399markets, in the world, inthe economy, and the politics, and600:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,079you'll get to know us and howwe think. We talk to you as700:00:20,120 --> 00:00:25,440money manages. We talk to youas as people, just telling you what's800:00:25,440 --> 00:00:31,000going on, telling you what we'redoing, our strategies, and hopefully you900:00:31,039 --> 00:00:34,399get something out of it. Lastcouple of weeks, I guess there's some1000:00:34,439 --> 00:00:40,159technical difficulties on the that's been comingacross and the shows haven't really been coming1100:00:40,920 --> 00:00:47,600actually being broadcasted, except parts ofthem. I totally apologize for it.1200:00:47,719 --> 00:00:52,880Obviously. I know it wasn't directlymy fault, but it's still uncomfortable to1300:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,719know that we think we're doing somethingand then it doesn't get out there.1400:00:55,759 --> 00:00:58,920So I think we fixed it nowif you hear my voice, we did1500:00:58,960 --> 00:01:02,640fix it, okay, And notmuch has happened in the last couple of1600:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,519weeks, but the month is stilldown right across the board. The SMP,1700:01:06,840 --> 00:01:11,079the NAVSDAC, the DOW, andthe UH UH and the Russell two1800:01:11,120 --> 00:01:15,480thousand all down so far for themonth, SMP is down about one and1900:01:15,560 --> 00:01:21,079a half Davsack's down over two percent. The equal weighted UH SMP now is2000:01:21,120 --> 00:01:26,000down one five Interesting though, theSMP for the year is up fifteen point2100:01:26,159 --> 00:01:30,560nine percent, but the equal weightingis only a four and a half percent2200:01:30,879 --> 00:01:37,799for the year. And that iswhere the big differences between portfolios and indexes2300:01:37,840 --> 00:01:42,400this year. Obviously, very fewpeople just in the indexes for this year,2400:01:42,959 --> 00:01:46,519and and and and if you were, that's great. If you're in2500:01:46,599 --> 00:01:52,439the NAVSDAC, even better. Butmost people are more balanced and UH spread2600:01:52,439 --> 00:02:00,359across the spectrum in order to gettheir their allocations to meet their risk risk2700:02:00,400 --> 00:02:05,959tolerance. Risk tolerance, that's somethingwe always talk about risk rest gurest grest2800:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,199grisks, you know, that's whatit's all about. I mean, I2900:02:08,280 --> 00:02:12,080know some people think they don't haverisk when the markets are going out,3000:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,000Hey, no big deal. Igot eighty percent of my portfolio in the3100:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,840video and are doing great. Yeah, of course, sure, but there's3200:02:17,840 --> 00:02:22,680rescue. Remember that stock came fromone ten to five hundred this year.3300:02:23,879 --> 00:02:30,479That's a huge, huge increase,could go higher. It's one company that3400:02:30,639 --> 00:02:34,479right now you look at and say, all right, that's gonna be voluntile.3500:02:34,479 --> 00:02:38,080People are going to trade it.But the underpinnings of that stock are3600:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,840pretty done good, but it's stillas risk. We always want you to3700:02:40,919 --> 00:02:46,039understand risk, and the show isbrought to you by Greenberg Financial Group,3800:02:46,919 --> 00:02:52,719who wants you to understand risk.Greenberg Financial Group is both ay Broke,3900:02:52,719 --> 00:02:59,319a dealer and a registered investment advisory. We are registered with the SEC and4000:02:59,360 --> 00:03:05,280we're regular and that we're members ofFINER and CIPRIC. They want you and4100:03:05,520 --> 00:03:12,000us always to understand risk. That'svery important. On the show, we4200:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,520talk about different products, different strategies, different ideas, our own opinions.4300:03:15,599 --> 00:03:24,240Everything has risk, and we highlysuggest you adjust your risk tolerance and your4400:03:24,280 --> 00:03:30,479portfolio to meet that risk tolerance asthe markets move up and down. So4500:03:30,560 --> 00:03:35,520as the markets move higher, obviouslyyour risk tolerance is set at a certain4600:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,240price. You need to keep itthere, which means you're gonna have to4700:03:38,240 --> 00:03:42,599sell off some stuff because some ofyour indices, some of your industries,4800:03:42,680 --> 00:03:47,479some of your individual stocks have ralliedmore than what your risk tolerance is allowable4900:03:47,719 --> 00:03:53,520to success, to succeed, becauseif it goes the other way, those5000:03:53,520 --> 00:03:58,080are the ones that are going tocreate stress and everything else. Same thing5100:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,840of everything goes down. If you'realready reallocated when things are up, and5200:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,199you reallocate that when they're down,which means you're buying more, you're adding5300:04:04,240 --> 00:04:10,080more, You're putting more into therisk party your portfolio. When it's higher,5400:04:10,120 --> 00:04:14,759you're taking off some of that risk. All that stuff is very,5500:04:14,879 --> 00:04:21,399very very important, and we suggestyou understand that the markets are only going5600:04:21,439 --> 00:04:27,399to get more volatile. The marketsare still going to stay confused. The5700:04:27,519 --> 00:04:31,680markets have so many different things thatcan make them go down and very few5800:04:31,680 --> 00:04:38,360things to make them go up.The amount of money, new money that5900:04:38,399 --> 00:04:43,079comes into the market is what pushesstocks to higher levels and higher evaluations.6000:04:43,079 --> 00:04:46,240We're already at those valuations. Sowhere does the new money come from to6100:04:46,319 --> 00:04:50,639keep pushing it. It's where Ialways always ask, because to make new6200:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,839highs, you need to have moremoney coming in new not the same money,6300:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,720more money because the prices are higher, evaluations are higher, and they6400:04:59,800 --> 00:05:04,920got to push the markets higher.The only way valuations come down is by6500:05:05,000 --> 00:05:13,399the economy growing, people spending moneyand earnings growing for the companies. We're6600:05:13,439 --> 00:05:16,639not in that scenario. We havea very high interest rate site now we6700:05:16,759 --> 00:05:25,600have high inflation. Those things createa problem when you're trying to see where6800:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,279new money is going to come from, because new money that goes into investment6900:05:29,879 --> 00:05:35,439is going into buying stuff that peopleneed. The necessities food, energy,7000:05:36,160 --> 00:05:43,360clothing, housing, All those priceshave gone higher. It's called inflation.7100:05:43,800 --> 00:05:49,839It eats into the economy. Theeconomy can't grow unless we have more spending.7200:05:51,079 --> 00:05:56,560You might be spending more, butthings are costing more if things were7300:05:56,720 --> 00:06:01,560costing less and we were spending moreas you grow, it's a very simple7400:06:02,319 --> 00:06:11,079formula. We need growth to sustainwhere we are to move higher. If7500:06:11,079 --> 00:06:16,600we don't get that growth, eventually, the earnings are gonna hurt stock prices.7600:06:16,680 --> 00:06:21,199Valuations need to come down close tothirty percent in order us to have7700:06:21,439 --> 00:06:26,959a fair valuation of what we've hadover the years. And you might say7800:06:27,199 --> 00:06:30,319that's not gonna happen. Well,that's gonna happen. I'm gonna get out7900:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,639of everything. Those are two thingsto look at. Neither one of them8000:06:32,680 --> 00:06:41,120is the answer to believe we're notcoming down or evaluations got to meet where8100:06:41,160 --> 00:06:44,839growth in the economy either has tohappen or prices got to come down.8200:06:46,759 --> 00:06:57,920Then you're not looking at what's happening. If you believe that the markets are8300:06:57,959 --> 00:07:00,959just gonna come down and not goup to sustain and you can't be wrong8400:07:01,000 --> 00:07:06,360there and sell everything. That's thewrong way to do it too. Again,8500:07:08,519 --> 00:07:12,639risk reward. When the risk isgreater than the reward, you reduce8600:07:12,680 --> 00:07:16,519your allocations towards risk. You mitigateyour risk, You raise some cash,8700:07:16,560 --> 00:07:21,560you go into fixed income. Youwait for opportunities. And opportunities don't have8800:07:21,639 --> 00:07:25,519to be on a broad base.The whole markets don't have to fall ten,8900:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,000fifteen, twenty thirty percent for youto say, hey, this is9000:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,160a great opportunity. Individual stocks canfall doing that, and you can add9100:07:32,199 --> 00:07:35,839to those and if the market's goingback and forth, you can be more9200:07:35,879 --> 00:07:40,680active. See the biggest thing isif you get what I'm saying is sitting9300:07:40,879 --> 00:07:45,680passively and just waiting everything out isfine if you're twenty thirty, forty,9400:07:45,879 --> 00:07:50,279and even in your early thirties fifties, But if you're late fifties sixties and9500:07:50,319 --> 00:07:54,680you're looking at retirement. No,even if you have all the money,9600:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,199Yes, you have to wait itout. If you don't do anything and9700:07:57,279 --> 00:08:00,560it comes down. Except if itcomes out and you just wait out the9800:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,680same stuff, that's not a goodgame plan either. That's when you come9900:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,319out of the things that are notworking and going to the things that you10000:08:07,399 --> 00:08:09,800think are going to make the mostdifference coming back. If you weren't able10100:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,199to mitigate any risk coming down,you're gonna lose, no matter why.10200:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,879If the markets go down. Nobodywants to see that, but that's what10300:08:16,000 --> 00:08:20,639happens. But if you lose lessand have cash to be able to buy,10400:08:20,959 --> 00:08:26,160then you're rewarded when the markets comeback up next week. Everyone thinks10500:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,199that the Federal Reserve is not goingto raise interest rates. However, the10600:08:28,199 --> 00:08:33,919inflation data this week doesn't say that. But they might take a weight and10700:08:33,919 --> 00:08:37,879see approach because they don't want togo ahead and accelerate the down move in10800:08:37,919 --> 00:08:43,279the economy, which we can seehappening already. The weird thing is the10900:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,840stock prices keep going higher for somereason. They go high except on Friday,11000:08:46,960 --> 00:08:52,399of course, they actually broke outof long term resistance on Thursday,11100:08:52,919 --> 00:08:58,399looking for momentum traders to keep buyingup again higher didn't happen. It reversing11200:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,519came down. We'll see next week. Now. I do think we can11300:09:01,519 --> 00:09:05,360come back down to the forty threehundred forty three fifty level, you know,11400:09:05,600 --> 00:09:11,320and unless there's a black Swan eventor crisis or some type of scenario,11500:09:13,159 --> 00:09:16,639we probably don't go back down intothe into the into the three handle11600:09:16,679 --> 00:09:22,679again or under thirty five hundred,which is what we're all looking for earlier11700:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,879in this year until maybe next year. You have to have a full blooded11800:09:26,960 --> 00:09:33,200recession and within the idea that pricesneed to readjust and the mentality has to11900:09:33,240 --> 00:09:37,679happen there. And when that changes, you know, you don't want to12000:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,039wait for that because it's going tobe too late to get out, you12100:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,000know that. And I know thatyou mitigate risk when when you can see12200:09:43,039 --> 00:09:48,919the red flags, when you cansee the uh, the inverted yield curves,12300:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,440when you can see the fact thatthings are slowed down, there's only12400:09:50,480 --> 00:09:56,679one reason to not knock in themarket. We still have the government stimulating12500:09:56,720 --> 00:10:01,519the market, We still have freemoney, we still have government spending.12600:10:01,960 --> 00:10:07,720You need to start slow government spendingand raise interest rates like it I did12700:10:07,000 --> 00:10:13,000to knock inflation on its button.But we don't do that. And the12800:10:13,039 --> 00:10:16,799main thing that's happened, which isgonna make it so difficult, and this12900:10:16,840 --> 00:10:22,159could last longer than we want.And why people are confused by a good13000:10:22,159 --> 00:10:31,120economy with weak underpendings and a strongeconomy with good undependings. Right now,13100:10:31,120 --> 00:10:37,279the economy looks strong, but theygot weak undependings. Any little thing that13200:10:37,320 --> 00:10:43,720wobbles, it can all fall down. What it doesn't have is the ability13300:10:43,799 --> 00:10:48,360for us to stimulate the economy ifthings starting to fail, because we will13400:10:48,399 --> 00:10:54,399get back inflation. The government,the Congress doesn't do anything to help us13500:10:54,879 --> 00:11:03,679with fiscal stimulus. They keep stimulatingthe economy. If you haven't looked lately,13600:11:03,279 --> 00:11:07,600then you haven't seen. The oilprices are back over ninety one dollars.13700:11:07,919 --> 00:11:13,440They have risen thirty someone dollars overthe last few months. Back in13800:11:13,480 --> 00:11:18,360the Springer got down to like sixtysixty one dollars back to ninety one.13900:11:18,399 --> 00:11:22,000And you don't hear it talking aboutit because the administration does not want to14000:11:22,039 --> 00:11:24,919talk about it because they know everytime you go to the pump. It's14100:11:24,960 --> 00:11:31,200twenty thirty dollars more to fill yourtank. So they keep pushing ev ev14200:11:31,480 --> 00:11:41,480ev and those things keep going higher. And now we're in a you a14300:11:41,960 --> 00:11:50,159w United Auto work is strike andthey're not just striking forward, the striking14400:11:50,200 --> 00:11:56,440forward GM and it used to beChrysler Jeep. Now now they've all combined.14500:11:56,559 --> 00:12:03,240There's three of them all going aheadand striking, and they're not striking14600:12:03,320 --> 00:12:07,519all at once, and all hundredsof thousands of people on the street.14700:12:07,879 --> 00:12:16,120They're going after the most productive assemblyplants around the country. Now I scratch14800:12:16,240 --> 00:12:24,120my head and say, why isthis okay? Why are they striking?14900:12:24,759 --> 00:12:30,480And it comes down they want moremoney. Well, we can't give more15000:12:30,519 --> 00:12:37,399money if we think that inflation isgoing to go ahead and continue. It's15100:12:37,600 --> 00:12:43,200ass backwards. We needed to stopinflation as the wages were coming up,15200:12:45,000 --> 00:12:50,720so they actually benefit from it.Think about it. Fifteen dollars twenty dollars15300:12:50,840 --> 00:12:56,000is normal now for people working ina restaurant businesses washing dishes, working in15400:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,559the kitchen, serving, doing allthat stuff. The price of food has15500:12:58,600 --> 00:13:05,759gone through the roof. Everything costsus more money. Let's just go to15600:13:05,840 --> 00:13:09,159McDonald's. There used to be avery cheap menu. Dollar menu. It's15700:13:09,159 --> 00:13:13,080never a dollar menu anymore. It'sthree dollars, it's five dollars. If15800:13:13,080 --> 00:13:18,279you want to walk out with ameal is eight to ten dollars. So15900:13:18,799 --> 00:13:24,039if you're making ten dollars and nowyou're gonna make fifteen dollars, that five16000:13:24,080 --> 00:13:30,240dollars gets taxed more. So whatdoes up five dollars really give you thirteen16100:13:30,279 --> 00:13:33,919dollars? So you go from tento thirteen. But the McDonald's burger went16200:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,399from four to eight to ten dollars. You were able to get out for16300:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,799five dollars a meal. So nowyou're spending five dollars more for that meal,16400:13:41,240 --> 00:13:46,399and you're only making three dollars more. If they raise it again and16500:13:46,519 --> 00:13:48,480give you more money, you're gonnabe taxed more and you're not, and16600:13:48,519 --> 00:13:54,840then everything's gonna go higher. Housingis higher, Renting is higher, traveling16700:13:54,919 --> 00:14:03,120is higher, Buying automobiles is higher. Everything costs more than what you're getting16800:14:03,120 --> 00:14:09,240in wages, and wages is forcing. Price is higher. And the worst16900:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,240part is it's not like you're payinga little bit more for going to the17000:14:11,279 --> 00:14:16,039grocery store for food or more forgas. Those prices go up and down17100:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,799wages. My friends are not comingdown. They're not. Once you give17200:14:22,879 --> 00:14:30,120somebody a raise, the only waythat that payroll gets cut is by getting17300:14:30,200 --> 00:14:35,159people. Let go, give themtheir pink slip, and then you got17400:14:35,159 --> 00:14:39,399two working for one and guess whathappens. Then unemployment goes higher. But17500:14:39,559 --> 00:14:43,919no one is educating these people picketingout there who are told you're not getting17600:14:43,919 --> 00:14:48,879your fresh share. One out ofthree people are going to be laid off17700:14:48,919 --> 00:14:54,679down the road when things aren't thatgood. Would you rather be making a17800:14:54,720 --> 00:14:58,759little less money and get a twentypercent increase rather than fighting for that forty17900:14:58,759 --> 00:15:07,519per sent increase and know you willhave a job that allowsy stinking amount.18000:15:07,559 --> 00:15:11,679The money that they have in thestrike fund, it's not that much,18100:15:13,159 --> 00:15:16,000three to five hundred dollars a week, and it probably has enough in there18200:15:16,039 --> 00:15:22,679to last for two months max.Most people don't want to go on strike.18300:15:22,120 --> 00:15:26,360They are talked into going on strikebecause the leader of the U a18400:15:26,639 --> 00:15:33,080W tells them they're not getting theirfair share. Look at wherever the prices18500:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,360were before. Look where inflation wasjust a mere couple of years ago.18600:15:39,360 --> 00:15:43,759And I'm not saying it's just wagesgoing up, the pandemic cause of supply18700:15:43,879 --> 00:15:48,320chain, and of course our politiciansdid nothing to bring down that price.18800:15:50,799 --> 00:15:56,919So now we're in a situation thatevery union teaches union and the UAW every18900:15:58,039 --> 00:16:02,639union is now wanted, is threateningto go on strike or get more money.19000:16:03,320 --> 00:16:04,759Well, what about the person that'snot doing that, the one that's19100:16:04,799 --> 00:16:08,480working that butts off, trying tomake it work, and everything keeps going19200:16:08,559 --> 00:16:15,919higher and higher. I want himto do exactly what Reagan did to the19300:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,720air traffic controllers. You want togo on strike, that's fine. Who19400:16:19,759 --> 00:16:25,320wants a job making this much money? And he got a whole bunch of19500:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,840new guys coming there, and themwomen, new people, i should say,19600:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,600coming in to take and learn howto be an air traffic controller.19700:16:33,679 --> 00:16:37,519And the others won't bye bye,and they were appreciative to have their jobs.19800:16:40,639 --> 00:16:45,879We no longer talk about the appreciationof having those jobs. Corporations are19900:16:45,960 --> 00:16:56,159not built to lose money. Theyhave shareholders, and guess what, the20000:16:56,279 --> 00:16:59,879people working there are shareholders too,people like us. The shareholders. If20100:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,559you're putting money in a pension plan, a private sharing plan, if you're20200:17:03,600 --> 00:17:07,759investing money in mutual funds, you'rea shareholder and probably most of these companies.20300:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,200If you're not putting money to afour win K plan and not putting20400:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,559things, then I don't know whatyou're gonna do when you get older,20500:17:15,559 --> 00:17:18,160because no one's gonna give you anymoney. But you'll be doing exactly this.20600:17:18,279 --> 00:17:22,599You'll be going on strike asking formore money out of social Security and20700:17:22,720 --> 00:17:32,119no one's going to care. Awhole attitude needs to change towards working and20800:17:32,319 --> 00:17:38,200earning, not coming together as agroup because your leader at UAW tells you20900:17:38,279 --> 00:17:45,279you're not being paid enough money withouttelling you the consequences of everyone making more21000:17:45,279 --> 00:17:52,279money. And what does he comeon? Mary Bearer, the CEO of21100:17:52,319 --> 00:17:56,039GM, you know, was beinginterviewed, and what does he do?21200:17:56,160 --> 00:18:00,279He comes on and goes You realizethe non interviews. She made more money21300:18:00,319 --> 00:18:06,319in that time, then some peoplemay go year. So what's your point.21400:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,960She went to school, she becameeducated, she learned the ropes.21500:18:11,200 --> 00:18:15,640She went ahead and was able toshow GM the board of directors and interviewed21600:18:15,960 --> 00:18:21,160up the line that she deserved thejob and she was the right person for21700:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,640the job. Same thing at Fordand same thing at Tesla, Same thing21800:18:25,640 --> 00:18:32,079at all these places, people earnthe right to get to those top positions,21900:18:32,480 --> 00:18:36,640and when they do, there's moneyto be paid to them. There's22000:18:36,720 --> 00:18:41,519no difference in a head coach ofa basketball or football team that makes anywhere22100:18:41,559 --> 00:18:45,200from five million to ten million ormore, and if they don't perform,22200:18:45,440 --> 00:18:49,240they are fired. But the ranksand the rank and file, they're not22300:18:49,279 --> 00:18:52,519allowed to get fired because they've gotunion reps and they're able to go ahead22400:18:52,559 --> 00:18:56,759and come in hi, they're ableto come in late, they're able to22500:18:56,799 --> 00:19:00,920do their job lousy and you can'tfire them. You're writing them up and22600:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,799go through everything improved to it.The CEO does not have that opportunity higher22700:19:04,839 --> 00:19:08,000management that gets paid. There isa very stressful thing, and there's one22800:19:08,039 --> 00:19:14,799person that makes it and this Iguarantee you one hundred others that believe they22900:19:14,799 --> 00:19:21,240should have that job. They earnedit. Pay them. What I don't23000:19:21,240 --> 00:19:25,039like is if the company goes outof business like GM did after getting all23100:19:25,079 --> 00:19:29,920that help in two thousand and twoand three from the government, that the23200:19:30,039 --> 00:19:33,799leadership is able to walk away andstill have hundreds of millions of dollars that23300:19:33,799 --> 00:19:38,480bothers me, but not earning it. As the company is prospering and making23400:19:38,519 --> 00:19:45,400money and paying everybody their salaries.And now they want the administration because they23500:19:45,440 --> 00:19:53,319know we minded. Biden is theunion president, and he'll come and probably23600:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,960try to help them. Well,I think he's not gonna do it like23700:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,160they think they're gonna do it.He is the union president. He believes23800:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,519in unions, and that's why theunions think they have so much power.23900:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,279But the administration's look at, well, how can we get some money to24000:20:11,400 --> 00:20:17,599pay for some of these smaller companiesthat are going ahead and going to probably24100:20:17,599 --> 00:20:22,400going to have business because they can'tstay in business without the motor companies being24200:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,640in business. I'll tell you how. Don't let the don't let the u24300:20:27,000 --> 00:20:32,519W strike tell them they have tobe opened. Tell them to stop being24400:20:32,599 --> 00:20:36,759greedy, make the deal of twentypercent, twenty five percent, and stop24500:20:36,799 --> 00:20:41,519asking for forty. You don't evenhave any idea how much it costs and24600:20:41,640 --> 00:20:47,640benefits and healthcare and retirement and everythingelse that goes into it in each other.24700:20:48,000 --> 00:20:52,400It's so much. When they losebillions of dollars on this ev stuff24800:20:52,440 --> 00:20:57,920like Ford did, nobody feels badfor them, and nobody gives them money.24900:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,880Okay, they're taking the risk.They're the ones that are making less25000:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,440money, they're the ones going intoit. But boy, they make money.25100:21:06,599 --> 00:21:11,839Everybody wants a piece of that action. And the only way when they're25200:21:11,839 --> 00:21:15,000not making money, what's gonna happenis you're going to lose your job.25300:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,079And you should think about do youwant your job at a reasonable price and25400:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,920work your way up to ladder ordo you want to go ahead and take25500:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,039the chance and make more money nowand get laid off in one, two,25600:21:25,200 --> 00:21:33,960three years when everything hits the fan. I do not believe in pressuring25700:21:33,079 --> 00:21:37,200companies. Pressure something that's the Andlet's face it, guys, the teachers25800:21:37,319 --> 00:21:45,200union is even worse than the autounion. It's so hard to get rid25900:21:45,240 --> 00:21:49,279of a teacher. But yet wedon't have enough teachers. There's a problem26000:21:49,319 --> 00:21:53,920with our education and we need tofix it. We need to get teachers26100:21:53,960 --> 00:21:59,920teaching. There are so many substituteteachers who do not care about what's going26200:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,920on. They go there, theycollect their check, there's no buying,26300:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,400no nothing, doing their lazy jobbecause they don't think they get paid enough26400:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,079and everything else. Now do Ithink teachers should get paid more. I26500:22:11,160 --> 00:22:17,960do, but if they earn it. If they earn it, bonus system,26600:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,240just like they do in corporations.You're doing great job, your kids26700:22:22,279 --> 00:22:25,720are having great grades. You're puttingin the effort. You get good,26800:22:25,759 --> 00:22:27,319write ups, man you get.If you don't get good, you get26900:22:27,319 --> 00:22:30,839out of there. Find people,pay them all, give them bonuses.27000:22:32,160 --> 00:22:40,400Change the structure. Stop letting lessthan medioca be successful, slap letting them27100:22:40,480 --> 00:22:45,079hate their jobs and collect the check. People that hate their jobs only bring27200:22:45,079 --> 00:22:49,839everybody else down because all they dois complain about everything. If these you,27300:22:51,200 --> 00:22:56,519if these factory workers hate their job, go find something else. Going27400:22:56,559 --> 00:23:00,720on strike is going to create aproblem for all of America. If they27500:23:00,759 --> 00:23:06,599stay out two or three months,it's gonna cost billions and billions and billions27600:23:06,599 --> 00:23:11,880of dollars to our economy just whenwe don't need it. Then the slowness27700:23:11,880 --> 00:23:17,079will pick up, then the marketswill fall, and then people won't get27800:23:17,079 --> 00:23:23,359their malley anyway. It's a problemthat we need to fix, but it27900:23:23,440 --> 00:23:29,240has to start with people like meexplaining to people that it's not about people28000:23:29,279 --> 00:23:33,720making money, it's about just givingit to everybody. Just because the unions28100:23:33,759 --> 00:23:37,240say you have to. If acompany makes a lot of money. That's28200:23:37,279 --> 00:23:41,680great. You don't see anybody goingahead in the oil industry complaining about it28300:23:41,759 --> 00:23:48,079except Biden and his cronies because theywant ev The people working for the oil28400:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,759companies, they're being paid and theylike it and they're not going on strike.28500:23:52,559 --> 00:23:56,559And believe me, it's hard work. I'm sure it is out on28600:23:56,599 --> 00:24:00,920those rigs in the middle of theocean and everything else. But they get28700:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,799paid because the company pays them.The company pays these order work is what28800:24:03,839 --> 00:24:08,359they can pay him. It's youand I that are gonna get hurt by28900:24:08,400 --> 00:24:12,000this, and not just this industry, all the industries that keep wanting more29000:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,839money. Our taxes go up andthe next thing, you know, are29100:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,599real dollars of what we make,even though we get an increase, is29200:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,200getting less and less and less.And that's why it's so hard to live29300:24:22,440 --> 00:24:26,319month to month. We'll be backwith the rest of the crew. Money29400:24:26,400 --> 00:24:33,759Matters with Dean Greenberg will return.Welcome back, everybody. It's some money29500:24:33,759 --> 00:24:37,519about the show. We got DaveSherwood, Todd Glick, Dean Greenberg,29600:24:38,279 --> 00:24:44,839and Dylan Greenberg here to talk toyou about the week and beyond. Yeah,29700:24:44,839 --> 00:24:48,559it didn't have much market movement thisweek, a lot of market movement,29800:24:48,759 --> 00:24:49,799but at the end there was nothingnight. I mean there was a29900:24:49,799 --> 00:24:53,240three fifty point up DAN three emptypoint down day. Well with it being30000:24:53,759 --> 00:24:57,359ending the week minus I mean that'sPeters down point two percent. That makes30100:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,359it two weeks in a row.Now, I think the I ended the30200:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,400week down forty two points. Itdid right, yes, and is down30300:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,759for seven points. Yeah, notmuch changing. Question is why couldn't it30400:25:07,799 --> 00:25:12,559continue higher when it was moving higher? Well, because we have to break30500:25:12,559 --> 00:25:21,880down after start of breaking down.Next week we'll find out the markets do30600:25:21,960 --> 00:25:27,079not expect the Fed to raise ratesbe a shock. I don't understand other30700:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,759than the fact they said that they'regonna let give it a poise and then30800:25:30,759 --> 00:25:34,880go from there. Because all theinformation this week was hotter than expected CPI30900:25:36,200 --> 00:25:41,079PPI both hotter than expected detail sales, and what they did is detail sales.31000:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,000Everything was they shrugged it off.It's all related to gasoline prices,31100:25:45,039 --> 00:25:51,240all of it retail sales, PPI, CPI all related to higher gasoline prices.31200:25:51,279 --> 00:25:53,000And if you take that as agiven, I'm gonna unerstand that's it.31300:25:53,079 --> 00:25:56,319But if you take that as thethesis, then that's gonna go away31400:25:56,359 --> 00:26:02,319at some point. But so Amazonthen is is the beneficiary because as as31500:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,839as gasoline prices go higher, peoplesay, well, I don't want to31600:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,559drive to the store. It's goingto cost me money. Let me get31700:26:08,599 --> 00:26:11,920on my computer. Amazon will haveit delivered tomorrow. I guess my only31800:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,599concern there would be at the gasat the Amazon trucks require well, but31900:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,680they're not raising prices. Amazon.Yeah, that's their own door Dash.32000:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,519Let's say get a boost as youcan get groceries delivered from it. But32100:26:25,599 --> 00:26:27,680at the same time, door Dashyou could probably see a drawback because the32200:26:27,680 --> 00:26:33,759student loan payments being re reintroduced,So people who have had that discretionary income32300:26:33,759 --> 00:26:37,440available no longer do no longer wantto pay. They're gonna have more people32400:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,960trying to drive for him to payfor them. Yeah. Probably we've been32500:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,480hearing that for months about the studentloan payments. When did they actually begin32600:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,039thirteenth payments restart? The interests startedon September one. Do you have to32700:26:48,079 --> 00:26:52,119make the payment by the thirteenth ofOctober? That's when they restart, So32800:26:52,200 --> 00:26:56,319whatever, probably, like you probablyhave after that or November thirteenth is probably32900:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,880the late payment. What's your paymentto October thirteenth is the due date.33000:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,119I actually get to the twenty three, probably so within a couple three weeks33100:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,200or so. We ought to knowwhat kind of ramifications there are. Well,33200:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,480you'll see it going into the endof the year. You know what33300:27:10,559 --> 00:27:15,039it might hurt is holiday time orusually you get all these bonuses and you're33400:27:15,079 --> 00:27:18,559paying for gifts and all it mighthave to go toward student loans. You're33500:27:18,559 --> 00:27:21,519gonna see the discretion or spending forgifts might go down. I don't think33600:27:21,519 --> 00:27:23,400this shiit. I think this ship. People are gonna say school and I33700:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,680don't know if I'm gonna pay it. Yeah, it'll start their system on33800:27:26,759 --> 00:27:29,599January first, Yeah, right.I think there'll be a lot of that,33900:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,519a lot of doing. I thinkso because most people are like,34000:27:32,599 --> 00:27:33,640well, I haven't paid it solong, I can't afford it, and34100:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,920I'm not going to pay it now. Three years yeah, three years,34200:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,759three years since anybody made it payment. If you had bad credit already,34300:27:40,920 --> 00:27:45,359if you had bad credit already,why would you make that payment. Also,34400:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,720I think you know a lot ofpeople are going to say I'd rather34500:27:47,759 --> 00:27:51,880spend money on my family than payingmoney to some creditor. You know,34600:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,000I want to get my kids thesepresents. So I think we probably see34700:27:55,039 --> 00:27:57,680consumers stay strong throughout the end ofthis year. But then as we flip34800:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,839into next year, what is thereto spend on at that point other than34900:28:00,880 --> 00:28:07,799just continuously inflation, staying hurt isvacation and stuff. Yeah, airbnb,35000:28:07,039 --> 00:28:11,400cruise ships, well, stuff.We say, shion always creates that and35100:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,799we're walking into it. Savings isdown, credit card dead is up.35200:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,359Yep. Just that equation alone tellspeople because if you, if you,35300:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,440if you're prudent and you have putsome stuff because you did some things,35400:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,599especially through the holiday, on yourcredit card, that year, you're going35500:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,640to tighten the belt and you're gonnapay off the credit card before you do35600:28:30,680 --> 00:28:36,240other things. If you spot yeah, absolutely absolutely. You know the big35700:28:36,279 --> 00:28:38,319headline is week You know what thebig headline was, right, Don't tell35800:28:38,359 --> 00:28:41,160me climate change, because I mean, no, not climate change. But35900:28:41,279 --> 00:28:47,160last Sunday, right a week agoto day was one hundred and eleven degrees.36000:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,119You know that was the hottest Septemberday. I said, no,36100:28:51,119 --> 00:28:52,240no, no, no, youjust said no climate change. It's the36200:28:52,279 --> 00:28:56,440same thing. This is historic.This is historic stuff. Okay, one36300:28:56,519 --> 00:29:00,640hundred and eleven degrees. What's thehottest day ever in September in Tucson ever?36400:29:02,279 --> 00:29:04,720And we've had somewhere between thirty andfifty thousand people moved here in the36500:29:04,759 --> 00:29:10,400last few years. Duhanna who youtalked to? And they've just experienced the36600:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,519summer from hell. And I've justwant him to understand it's not normal.36700:29:15,119 --> 00:29:18,240Last Sunday was not only one hundredand eleven degrees, it was the eighteenth36800:29:18,480 --> 00:29:22,279day this year, one tenner above. You know what the average is?36900:29:22,799 --> 00:29:26,400Two? You know what the modeis? The mode is the most often37000:29:26,960 --> 00:29:33,160scene number one and we had eighteen. Okay, so there you go.37100:29:33,200 --> 00:29:37,079So it's the hottest July in history. And I'm not talking about climate change.37200:29:37,119 --> 00:29:38,559Well, let me let me askyou. Let me tell you.37300:29:38,559 --> 00:29:42,200A climate change is in tenths ofa degree, right, climate change is37400:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,799not ten degrees above average every dayfor a month and a half. He37500:29:45,839 --> 00:29:49,680gets the EV vehicle and slowly butsurely, it's turning left. You notice37600:29:49,720 --> 00:29:55,319that I don't think my EV turnsleft. I'm not. It's not allowed.37700:29:55,480 --> 00:30:00,160It's not allowed to One thing.One interesting thing about the ev and37800:30:00,359 --> 00:30:04,279this is this is that that I'vebeen monitoring my electric bills more closely now.37900:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,279I got the car in late JuneJuly, I went to a lot38000:30:08,319 --> 00:30:12,960of the superchargers, so August wasreally the first month that I was charged38100:30:14,000 --> 00:30:18,200it at home. And I'm I'mthinking based upon what I'm seeing so far,38200:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,759and I keep in mind, Augustwas so much hotter than last August.38300:30:22,119 --> 00:30:26,039That is hard to compare apples andapples, but it looks like it's38400:30:26,160 --> 00:30:27,960probably. And I spent two hundredbucks a month on gasoline, right,38500:30:29,559 --> 00:30:32,319it looks like the electricity is goingto cost me about one hundred bucks a38600:30:32,319 --> 00:30:38,599month. Not a gigantic savings,not gigantic mean I spent two hundred No,38700:30:38,759 --> 00:30:41,920I spent two hundred bucks a monthon gasoline when I had the gas38800:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,920car car. With the electric car, it looks like the cost of electricity38900:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,960is going to be about one hundreddollars a month more than what I was39000:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,559paying before I had the electric vehicle. But nobody talks about that. No,39100:30:53,559 --> 00:30:56,440No, what I'm saying, that'snot just your garage. That's good.39200:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,319That's not that's good. Now you'retalking. Oh and you want to39300:31:00,319 --> 00:31:03,519go straight to THEV girl, We'renot doing that because I've got I've got39400:31:03,519 --> 00:31:07,160a whole being there and then thatone's actually, this one's actually, uh,39500:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,759you're one one. You know.It's funny, Dave, and I39600:31:10,880 --> 00:31:15,519love you many apparently because you youjust believe everything. You're so anal about39700:31:15,519 --> 00:31:19,920everything that once you got going onthe ZV stuff and the and what the39800:31:21,319 --> 00:31:25,000hot it is? Every week youhave to do it. It's not like39900:31:25,039 --> 00:31:26,680your closet. We don't need todo the same thing every week. Other40000:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,960than we have clients that have listenersthat have called. Please let them,40100:31:32,079 --> 00:31:36,400please let them keep talking about EV'sI love a four guys. Two of40200:31:36,400 --> 00:31:40,160them were your friends. This istotally this is not at all what you're40300:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,079expecting. Though this week you getit. You know what, though I40400:31:42,119 --> 00:31:47,240need one hundred eleven degrees, onehundred and four degrees. It's hot.40500:31:47,279 --> 00:31:49,039We all say it's hot. Weget by. This is where we live.40600:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,599I'll take it. I don't wantnewcomers to think this is normal bottom40700:31:53,640 --> 00:32:00,599or difference bottom more. Why youfrom California? I back. You got40800:32:00,599 --> 00:32:01,799a point there, you got apoint there. Somebody said it is so40900:32:01,880 --> 00:32:06,000damn HoTT and Brown. Here Igo. Yeah, hey, tell everybody41000:32:06,039 --> 00:32:07,880you know, you know, Imean, all right, let's keep moving41100:32:07,920 --> 00:32:13,880on. I keep finding. Themost fascinating thing is is the this year41200:32:14,400 --> 00:32:21,759is the equal weighted SMP dramatically different. It is eleven almost eleven percent less41300:32:21,759 --> 00:32:25,039than the SMP. Yes, twentysix percent less than the NAVZDAC. If41400:32:25,079 --> 00:32:29,680you combine the two fifties on twentyone, it's about twenty five. It's41500:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,920twenty percent less than the NAVSDAC andthe SMP combined. So if you don't41600:32:32,920 --> 00:32:37,720have those seven stocks, yeah,there you are, and we will have41700:32:37,759 --> 00:32:40,119some exposures of those seven stock wellwe do when some of the ets and41800:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,319stuff and the qqq's which are pointof a model, but no way did41900:32:44,319 --> 00:32:46,720to give the boost that the othersdid by themselves. And going into the42000:32:46,759 --> 00:32:51,160seven stocks now might not be themove because we've seen in the past that42100:32:51,319 --> 00:32:55,519historically, when the equal weighted underperformsthe regular cap weighted SMP, the equated42200:32:55,599 --> 00:33:00,400then normally outbeats the cap weighted SMPthe following year years. So you need42300:33:00,440 --> 00:33:04,799to be careful and not always tryingto follow a trade that has worked in42400:33:04,839 --> 00:33:07,160the past. It could very wellgo the opposite and equalated. It starts42500:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,720outperforming the S ANDP. Well,we're seeing these big tech stocks having pullbacks42600:33:10,759 --> 00:33:15,519right now. I mean videos downten percent. Netflix is down fifteen percent.42700:33:15,000 --> 00:33:19,279Microsoft is down. Amazon is theonly one that's Amazon and Google will42800:33:19,279 --> 00:33:22,279only do that's gonna be up rightnow. Apple's already pulled back months ago,42900:33:22,359 --> 00:33:25,480three months ago with the ones thatwere hardly moving, and we said,43000:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,319those are the ones that get intowhen they moved. Oil is another43100:33:29,319 --> 00:33:31,240one. If you go back andlisten to some of our shows, I43200:33:31,319 --> 00:33:35,759kept saying in the sixties seventies,oil will be over eighty five dollars.43300:33:36,240 --> 00:33:39,000It is now ninety one dollars.It's probably moving to one hundred dollars.43400:33:39,039 --> 00:33:42,359Yeah, we said a couple ofyears ago that the tech the charts look43500:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,839like a hundred. But the interestingpart is, well, you can't go43600:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,240up because China has been in ashutdown. China wasn't doing this, China43700:33:49,359 --> 00:33:52,680wasn't doing that. I am sosick and tired of listening to China.43800:33:52,759 --> 00:33:55,480All Right, it's not China,it's nothing. It's us not drilling,43900:33:55,759 --> 00:34:00,400it's us not allowing anyone to haveour oil. We know the Saudi Arabia44000:34:00,480 --> 00:34:05,200is not increasing production right or they'regoing to keep their production cuts, and44100:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,760so is Biden. Well also theyblame them, they blame them, blaming44200:34:08,800 --> 00:34:14,920them. The latest economic got outof China was better than expectations is showing44300:34:14,960 --> 00:34:19,239that the the retail sales were alot better than expectations. That was really44400:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,920one number on Friday. They're cuttinginterest rates like there's no tomorrow over there.44500:34:23,039 --> 00:34:29,840They're in a panic over will neverever trust whatever comes out of China.44600:34:30,159 --> 00:34:32,239I've been doing this forty years.The one thing I learned thirty five44700:34:32,320 --> 00:34:36,880years ago, someone says, neverlistened to what China has to tell you.44800:34:37,320 --> 00:34:38,679They will paint the picture. Theywill do whatever, because it doesn't44900:34:38,679 --> 00:34:42,360matter. They do what they want, all right. They do it the45000:34:42,360 --> 00:34:44,920way they want to do it,and they report it the way they want45100:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,519to report it exactly. And it'sit's very difficult. But we've been seeing45200:34:47,559 --> 00:34:52,519numbers out of China for months theshow that they're they're slowing, their real45300:34:52,639 --> 00:34:58,840estate bubble is bursting, their youthunemployment is so high they won't even report45400:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,159it anymore. That's a country ina lot of trouble. And yes,45500:35:02,239 --> 00:35:07,480the most recent number that came outon Friday, Todd was better than expected,45600:35:07,679 --> 00:35:10,079But that's kind of a one off. It's been the trend has been45700:35:10,920 --> 00:35:15,760disappointing news after disappointing news. It'strue, but I mean you got to45800:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,760think if you're a consumer in Chinathat has not spend anything really over the45900:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,719last two years. I mean,your your balance sheet can't be looking that46000:35:22,719 --> 00:35:27,199bad. Three years they shut itdown SOW three years. I mean,46100:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,159how are they going to haven't beenmaking money either. I mean I can46200:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,960understand that. It's it's a controlledenvironment. It's a bubble. Yeah,46300:35:32,960 --> 00:35:37,519okay, you make too much money, then then the China becomes your partner.46400:35:37,599 --> 00:35:39,719You don't make enough money, theygive you food, housing, an46500:35:39,719 --> 00:35:43,280one you have to work for twodollars an hour. I mean, it's46600:35:43,400 --> 00:35:49,880it's it's not just look at Ali, what was it Ali Baba Emma,46700:35:50,079 --> 00:35:52,960you don't even see him anymore,and he decided just to take the vacation46800:35:53,000 --> 00:35:57,440of a lifetime. We'll be rightback. Is the Money Matter Show.46900:35:57,760 --> 00:36:08,840It's welcome back, everybody. Thisis the Money Matters Show, all right.47000:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,519So we're in a situation with themarkets and We're talking a lot about47100:36:12,519 --> 00:36:15,880the markets today, down for themonth but up for the year. But47200:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,480the overall portfolios on there, whatdo you do? How do you really47300:36:17,519 --> 00:36:22,920allocate the portfolio today? All right, because we keep getting that question and47400:36:22,039 --> 00:36:24,760we get new people all the timecoming in. We go through the financial47500:36:24,800 --> 00:36:29,280planning part. We go through allthat stuff and I'll let Todd and Dylan47600:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,000explain what we actually do that.But at the end of the day,47700:36:31,079 --> 00:36:35,320once we know the risk tolerance andwhat's going on, we make a decisions.47800:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,719The best part today is fixed incomeside. You can get five percent47900:36:39,000 --> 00:36:44,760in short term fixed income. It'sbeen decades since, not decades, but48000:36:45,000 --> 00:36:49,039at least fourteen years since we've beenable to get that. Yeah, the48100:36:50,119 --> 00:36:52,400government bonds I usually played nothing.I mean, corporate bonds pay five percent48200:36:52,840 --> 00:36:58,760in the last few years. Butbe let be not good stuff in the48300:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,079last ten year. Yeah, tenyears maybe now they haven't, Dylan.48400:37:01,159 --> 00:37:06,159It's just the ones that have triplebe things like that. You know,48500:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,599uh, some other bonds you dothat. That's why everyone would stretch in48600:37:08,679 --> 00:37:13,039for income. They were buying stufflike at and T and varies are getting48700:37:13,039 --> 00:37:15,920the dividends while nothing was there buton money markets now we're paying over five48800:37:15,960 --> 00:37:20,880percent. So while we're waiting foropportunities, you're making some money which we48900:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,920weren't able to do. Now.Our strategic income model it's so easy to49000:37:23,960 --> 00:37:28,119put together today. All right,if someone just wanting, you know,49100:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,280was willing to just take what you'resupposed to, which is about five percent,49200:37:30,719 --> 00:37:35,199and and make that another pension.See, we don't have pensions today.49300:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,840That's how I developed a sim model, strategic income model. You take49400:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,679the money and then you give thema check every month in their in their49500:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,280and their mailbox. It's like it'sa more liquid version of a pension because49600:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,079at the end of the day,you still have access to all of your49700:37:47,119 --> 00:37:51,320money that's in there. But webuild a pension off of what your money49800:37:51,400 --> 00:37:52,480is in there, and then wedo that. They're buying bonds and a49900:37:52,519 --> 00:37:55,920little bit of growth and value stocksand value ets. And the best part,50000:37:55,960 --> 00:38:00,360you don't have to make a decision. Is there two sets of income?50100:38:00,719 --> 00:38:02,559Is it do I get all theincome now and if I die then50200:38:02,559 --> 00:38:06,840nothing's like for my spouse or doI do the two time? No,50300:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,360this is the income you get foreverybody, doesn't matter how long that will50400:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,800you live. Do you adjust theportfolios if you're willing to take that,50500:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,920if you can want to lock itup and get a guaranteed, then you50600:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,800do an annuity. But then you'relocking it up, but they'll pay you50700:38:20,840 --> 00:38:22,320the rest of your life on thattoo. But then you got to talk50800:38:22,320 --> 00:38:28,800about first and second. But there'scombinations of things that do very important to50900:38:28,920 --> 00:38:34,639know you can get income in retirementnow absolutely. Maybe we're talking about about51000:38:34,679 --> 00:38:38,440allocations and if they've got a balancedaccount, typical balanced account sixty percent equities,51100:38:38,480 --> 00:38:44,320forty percent fixed income. Let's sayyou have thirty percent of that portfolio51200:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,760in value stocks, dividends paying stocks, Those are down for the year.51300:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,000Those are down for the year withthe S and P five hundred sixteen percent,51400:38:52,159 --> 00:38:55,719especially if you use the two that'spaying the best evidence, Yeah,51500:38:55,960 --> 00:39:00,840Verizon at and T right, andthose are in a bunch to the ETFs51600:39:00,960 --> 00:39:05,440and so at that area is downfor the year. Bonds yet forty percent51700:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,920in bonds, those are unchanged onthe year. Even if you've got treasuries51800:39:07,960 --> 00:39:12,880paying five percent interest rates have risen, they've dropped about two and a half51900:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,239percent in value, so you've madenothing there. The thirty percent of the52000:39:16,280 --> 00:39:21,360remaining thirty percent you would probably havein growth and dan. If you look52100:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,199at the equal weighted SMP five hundred, which is where you would put growth52200:39:24,320 --> 00:39:29,800money, for the most part,you're up about six percent. So if52300:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,840you're paying a one percent management feein that sixty forty account, you are52400:39:32,920 --> 00:39:38,079actually losing money this year with theSMP five hundred up almost seventeen percent.52500:39:38,320 --> 00:39:43,239So obviously we've got some exposure tosome of those stocks that are in the52600:39:43,320 --> 00:39:46,760SMP, and our model keeps usinvolved in that our accounts balanced accounts are52700:39:46,760 --> 00:39:51,400for the most part of about seveneight percent. It depends, you know,52800:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,039we never really talk about the wayto return because people come in at52900:39:54,079 --> 00:39:58,639different times. Oh absolutely, peoplehave different needs, different things. People53000:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,039have health problems they need to pullout. They have a kitchen flaw that53100:40:01,079 --> 00:40:04,159needs to be done. They havea hole in their roof that they need53200:40:04,199 --> 00:40:07,440to get done that they don't planon, so that takes money out all53300:40:07,480 --> 00:40:08,519of a sudden. They get somemoney and they put it back in,53400:40:08,599 --> 00:40:12,599and that doesn't get put the workright away, or it's earning some money53500:40:12,599 --> 00:40:15,880now at least in five percent.The reason when you're dealing with individuals,53600:40:16,119 --> 00:40:20,960you can't just say this is whateverything does. What you do say is53700:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,719okay, your part of growth youshould be up somewhere around fifteen percent.53800:40:24,800 --> 00:40:29,960The more of your growth part,not your portfolio, your bond should be53900:40:30,000 --> 00:40:34,400even your value stocks probably down alittle bit, you know what I mean.54000:40:34,559 --> 00:40:36,760If you dissect it, that's it. But at the end of the54100:40:36,800 --> 00:40:40,280day, what we're doing by doingthe financial plan and figuring out your it's54200:40:40,320 --> 00:40:45,599tolerance and putting together whatever income youneed and you and there for the long54300:40:45,679 --> 00:40:50,559haul. It's about being conservative ofgrowing your money when we can, keeping54400:40:50,599 --> 00:40:53,159what we can, and making surethat you don't have that stress. Some54500:40:53,199 --> 00:40:59,800people might have heard Dave say thetreasuries are down this year. It realized54600:40:59,840 --> 00:41:04,719that that's down meaning unrealized. Okay, so you'll never actually realize a loss54700:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,119if you hold them a treasury tomaturity and ours are all two three year54800:41:07,320 --> 00:41:12,280a maturity, so you're going toget all of your money back plus interest.54900:41:12,440 --> 00:41:14,960Well, even with treasures, youalso have one year as well,55000:41:15,360 --> 00:41:19,440So just keep in mind that yes, on a statement you may see one55100:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,800monthly or a couple monthly statements showthat it's down, but that's an unrealized55200:41:22,920 --> 00:41:27,320loss. As long as you continueto hold, you will continue to receive55300:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,880those cupon payments, which will eatinto that loss. And then eventually,55400:41:30,880 --> 00:41:34,360once you return the whole premium back, it's going to be really lucrative.55500:41:34,679 --> 00:41:37,239So that's kind of how it works. Usually a lot of that interest is55600:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,960on the back end of the treasury. Let's talk about something that's important in55700:41:40,000 --> 00:41:45,159Tucson, Arizona to a lot ofpeople, and that's Raytheon stock. Yeah,55800:41:45,199 --> 00:41:50,519on July twenty fifth, that stockdrop fifteen percent on news there Pratt55900:41:50,559 --> 00:41:54,559and Whitney Engine had a rare manufacturingflaw. Generally, when a stock drops56000:41:54,679 --> 00:41:59,639like that, there is more downsideto come. We suggested that at that56100:41:59,679 --> 00:42:04,280time that that is probably not thebottom. Don't be loading up here.56200:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,119If you wanted to stick your toein you probably could. I think it56300:42:07,199 --> 00:42:13,400was what eighty three eighty Yeah,this week it drove. They said they're56400:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,440gonna take a three billion dollar charge. Initially it looked like a five hundred56500:42:16,519 --> 00:42:22,360million dollar problem. Now they're gonnatake a three billion dollar charge and they're56600:42:22,360 --> 00:42:28,280gonna be taking planes out of serviceuntil the middle of twenty twenty six to56700:42:28,440 --> 00:42:34,000repair this unusual manufacturing flaw. Sodown it came again. I think it56800:42:34,079 --> 00:42:37,079hit seventy two, seventy three dollars. We're getting close to a wash out56900:42:37,119 --> 00:42:40,239load anything you think so, Imean, it reminds me of Boeing going57000:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,719through the ponds with the planes.I mean, they're all attached to the57100:42:43,719 --> 00:42:45,719thing. I mean, we're notgonna raithing on. It's not going to57200:42:45,760 --> 00:42:49,960stop making missiles. Okay, they'renot going to stop being doing it.57300:42:50,079 --> 00:42:52,440Things right, downs and earnings,it's all part of the game. It's57400:42:52,480 --> 00:42:57,079all tax situations, so they don'thave to pay taxes when they don't when57500:42:57,079 --> 00:42:59,880they're not doing it. But again, what it's gonna happen if you take57600:42:59,880 --> 00:43:02,079it those charges and you're losing moneyat rating on what happens all right,57700:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,679You're not getting raises. It's hardto get those races. It's hard to57800:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,360get the increases. And this iswhat this what's what gets me, and57900:43:10,400 --> 00:43:15,440this is what bothers me about what'shappening with the with the the UAW.58000:43:15,719 --> 00:43:20,039A few years ago they were losingmoney, not doing great. Now that58100:43:20,119 --> 00:43:23,079now they're now they're doing well becauseobviously to pent up demand for cause they've58200:43:23,079 --> 00:43:28,159been able to write raise prices becausethere wasn't as many cause blah blah blah58300:43:28,159 --> 00:43:30,679all the way. Right now theyall want forty percent raises, Dave.58400:43:31,639 --> 00:43:36,280If something happens we have a recession, these people are gonna be out of58500:43:36,280 --> 00:43:39,239work. They want not only fortypercent raises, they want five weeks of58600:43:39,239 --> 00:43:45,280paid vacation, they want seventeen holidaysduring the I mean, it's just extremely58700:43:45,320 --> 00:43:49,079unrealistic demands. And I'm thinking maybesome of that to get you know,58800:43:49,119 --> 00:43:51,920if you ask for the movie,you get, you get some stars,58900:43:51,920 --> 00:43:53,760you know. But the interesting partto me, I'm starting to rip.59000:43:53,800 --> 00:43:58,159But the interesting part, to me, the fascinating part is there only thirteen59100:43:58,199 --> 00:44:02,559thousand workers on strike out of onehundred and forty five thousand. But what59200:44:02,559 --> 00:44:07,119they're doing is a surgically trying toshut down the biggest plans for each company.59300:44:07,199 --> 00:44:10,320But they're not they're not right,but they're not disrupting. Oh it's59400:44:10,320 --> 00:44:14,440not just Detroit, wint to Detroit. Yeah, it's not just that,59500:44:14,559 --> 00:44:19,000but but it's they went after theFE fifty, that factory, they went59600:44:19,039 --> 00:44:22,039after the jeep, they went afterthe I forgot in the GM it was59700:44:22,039 --> 00:44:24,599there, trucks or something, thirteenthousand out of one hundred and forty five59800:44:24,639 --> 00:44:27,800thousand, right, well, hecan't. They'll keep doing well, you59900:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,159know why they don't have enough moneyin the strike fund. Day, it's60000:44:30,159 --> 00:44:31,800probably okay. They don't have enoughmoney in the strike fund, and they're60100:44:31,800 --> 00:44:35,760not going to tell you that it'sterrible. I remember when the phone company60200:44:35,760 --> 00:44:37,599at and T used to go onstrike and my dad worked for him.60300:44:37,599 --> 00:44:42,000He hated it. They said theynever asked him ever if he wanted to60400:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,400go on strike or not. Howis he going to make the money to60500:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,800go pay for food and everything else? And they never gave enough money to60600:44:46,840 --> 00:44:51,440pay for everything. So you're sayingthat the UAW pays these people that are60700:44:51,480 --> 00:44:52,880out of work to kind of gethim through. They're paying three to five60800:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,760hundred dollars a week, yeah,and they don't have enough money to cover.60900:44:55,880 --> 00:45:00,440Can you apply for unemployment insurance ifyou go on strike because it's voluntary,61000:45:00,519 --> 00:45:04,079right, don't? Right? Idon't believe you can now if they61100:45:04,119 --> 00:45:06,920if you get laid off, thecause it right, So if the strike61200:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,519fund runs out, I think theymight be able to do that, but61300:45:08,880 --> 00:45:12,119no, I don't think so.I think you're going strike. You don't.61400:45:12,159 --> 00:45:15,320You don't get any assistance except withthis president who knows what's going to61500:45:15,400 --> 00:45:19,760happen. They're already looking at givean assistance to uh, the companies that61600:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,920the supply companies, okably have somuch extra money, right, Well,61700:45:22,920 --> 00:45:27,519it's not their faulted, yes itis, it's everyone's fault. Okay,61800:45:27,679 --> 00:45:30,639this is what happens, all right. So then they say, fine,61900:45:30,679 --> 00:45:32,360if that's what you want, we'regonna charge you more when you come back.62000:45:32,639 --> 00:45:36,920Make GM pay for these make faultyou know what I mean. If62100:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,920that's what they want, it's justnot to me make sense. They all62200:45:40,960 --> 00:45:45,000saw getting these used raises. Allcars are going to go up by ten62300:45:45,039 --> 00:45:49,320percent, then we can't pay forthem. Imagine cars going up ten percent62400:45:49,360 --> 00:45:52,400are already cost as much as myfirst house. And you know, Ford62500:45:52,480 --> 00:45:54,320offered like a twenty percent raising.Way it is Yep, they did,62600:45:54,679 --> 00:45:58,920and they would probably pretty it's prettybig though, Well look how big the62700:45:59,199 --> 00:46:04,960airline pilot Scott right, they gota huge race yea forty or fifty percent62800:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,559over a thirty five year or somethinglike that. Yeah, I can almost62900:46:07,599 --> 00:46:09,880handle part of that, because thatis a job that you have to have63000:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,480a lot of training, a lotof time, a lot of effort,63100:46:13,559 --> 00:46:15,440a lot of learning, a lotof education to be at all right.63200:46:15,639 --> 00:46:19,440You don't have a lot of thosepeople hanging around they want to do that63300:46:21,159 --> 00:46:23,519assembling stuff at the plant. Youcan find the people to do it.63400:46:23,639 --> 00:46:27,039Well, they're gonna get the buttskicked out of there and gets what's gonna63500:46:27,079 --> 00:46:30,159happen. They're gonna get ai inthere. I wonder if this isn't just63600:46:30,440 --> 00:46:35,079like a salvo that the Union threwup there and it's just to kind of63700:46:35,079 --> 00:46:37,159get this thing settled. It justfeels like it's going to settle pretty quickly.63800:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,639I don't think some stocks are actinglike it's gonna say. I mean,63900:46:39,679 --> 00:46:42,599if I'm for it, I'm justlike, how quick can I open64000:46:42,679 --> 00:46:45,960up a Mexico plant? Yeah?You know, well that's exactly what they're64100:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,599gonna start thinking. You keep thisup, we'll move into Mexico, which64200:46:49,639 --> 00:46:52,239hope, by the way, it'sonly five dollars an hour, and they'll64300:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,119be happy as hell to go getthat money. Oh yeah, happy to64400:46:54,159 --> 00:46:58,400have the work. But it doesit does feel like it's I don't know64500:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,280that stocks are acting like it's nota big deal because it's not a big64600:47:01,320 --> 00:47:07,079deal because until they know they're gonnamake up the money by selling the cause64700:47:07,079 --> 00:47:09,039they still have inventory there. Ifit lasts week or four months, it's64800:47:09,039 --> 00:47:12,480a big deal. Probably the reasonit's not so much a big deal,64900:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,519it's to your point, Davi,that there's not really only around ten percent65000:47:15,880 --> 00:47:17,000of the workers and I think it'sgonna be sure. I think maybe the65100:47:17,159 --> 00:47:21,519shareholders thought there was going to bea larger amount that actually go on a65200:47:21,519 --> 00:47:23,559full week plus deal. But youknow, the importance of the F one65300:47:23,599 --> 00:47:27,840fifty to for it can't be understated. I mean, it's the best selling65400:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,559vehicle in the US for forty plusyears. It's the best selling truck for65500:47:30,559 --> 00:47:35,320almost fifty. The only way,the only way this gets settled fast is65600:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,920if the union actually has in themind under thirty and they can get us65700:47:37,920 --> 00:47:42,239somewhere around twenty seven. I agree, all right, we'll be right back.65800:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,639This is the money by the show. We do appreciate you listening.65900:47:44,960 --> 00:48:01,599Thank you say it's only a babWelcome back everybody. This is the second66000:48:01,599 --> 00:48:06,760hour with the money amount of show. Remember if you wanted to listen to66100:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,360past shows or TV shows or whatever. All do you got to do is66200:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,920go to our website, go tothe YouTube page. It has all the66300:48:13,000 --> 00:48:16,800shows on all of podcasts on,all the TV shows on Pick Choose.66400:48:17,360 --> 00:48:22,159It's real simple. Not only that, we just got the new Saturday radio66500:48:22,199 --> 00:48:25,079shows uploaded. So if you tunein, uh, they've already been aired66600:48:25,079 --> 00:48:30,840because this is Sunday, but sixthirty on Saturday's twelve and twelve thirty on66700:48:30,960 --> 00:48:32,960K and ST, you'll hear ournew radio shows. There's those are our66800:48:34,079 --> 00:48:37,559audio from our new TV shows wejust aired. We're gonna start airing those66900:48:37,559 --> 00:48:43,440coming up here soon tonight at tenthirty tonight at right, is it tonight?67000:48:43,480 --> 00:48:45,480But no, it's not on thisweek. No, No, it's67100:48:45,480 --> 00:48:49,119not on tonight. It's gonna startI think the beginning of October. Beginning67200:48:49,119 --> 00:48:52,119October's what we're looking at. So, but again, you can get thirty67300:48:52,119 --> 00:48:54,599on T four right. Yeah,we have already started uploading the first TV67400:48:54,679 --> 00:48:59,639show on YouTube, and we're gonnakind of do it one per week,67500:49:00,599 --> 00:49:02,760So if you can go to ourYouTube you'll see that there anytime. But67600:49:02,960 --> 00:49:07,639the radio shows are a great wayto get more of educational content around financial67700:49:07,639 --> 00:49:13,280planning. And we also have areally exciting announcement for federal employees. We've67800:49:13,280 --> 00:49:20,480gotten a new how would Retirement softwarewhere we're actually able to do a gap67900:49:20,519 --> 00:49:25,519analysis on a federal employees pension andthen their income gaps, so with the68000:49:25,519 --> 00:49:30,039TSP that they have, the federalpension and then as well as Social Security68100:49:30,360 --> 00:49:34,920seeing if there's any gap in thatin that place, how do we close68200:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,400that gap. We're also able tocalculate the exact pension that they should be68300:49:37,440 --> 00:49:43,000getting that benefits if they're survivor benefits. So there's so many different things that68400:49:43,079 --> 00:49:47,440go into a federal employees benefits andwe're able to actually show in detail every68500:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,679single one of those. Yeah,it's a great tool that we just got.68600:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,559We've been using different things in thepast few years and this one's brand68700:49:53,559 --> 00:49:57,480new and it's actually very beneficial fromwhat we've been seeing, and it can68800:49:57,760 --> 00:50:01,559it's more hands on detail like whatit actually does that the other Wooden didn't68900:50:01,599 --> 00:50:05,000do the gap well, we neverdid it on our own before. We're69000:50:05,039 --> 00:50:07,880doing it on our own now andwe went through all the whole program of69100:50:07,920 --> 00:50:09,400how to do all this on ourown, so now we know more the69200:50:09,440 --> 00:50:13,880ins and outs of it, ratherthan in a sense sending it off and69300:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,559bringing the report back that would projectyour pension. Now we can project a69400:50:16,639 --> 00:50:21,039pension for you, so we cando it all together in the meeting,69500:50:21,079 --> 00:50:23,000and we can do different scenarios.Say you work longer, say you don't69600:50:23,039 --> 00:50:27,639all this different stuff. We canget a report made right then and there,69700:50:28,119 --> 00:50:30,000and I'll show you everything. Doesn'tmatter how much time you have to69800:50:30,119 --> 00:50:34,880retirement to be able to project thepension. No, No, it's based69900:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,880on work hours and projections like that. And it will actually it will project70000:50:37,960 --> 00:50:43,400out a salary increase raised through theyears if you're ten, fifteen, twenty70100:50:43,440 --> 00:50:45,079years out from retirement. So you'llbe able to get a projection of what70200:50:45,159 --> 00:50:49,840your pension would look like at retirement. Obviously it's changing because it's not gonna70300:50:49,840 --> 00:50:52,559be able to predict whether you geta huge increase one year different. It's70400:50:52,679 --> 00:50:57,119also able to predict e Fegley theinsurance, yes, and how much that's70500:50:57,159 --> 00:51:00,239going to go up and stuff that'simportant because people don't realize that one and70600:51:00,519 --> 00:51:02,920and what you mean by that isthat Fegley's premiums just skyrocket once you're in70700:51:02,920 --> 00:51:07,719retirement. They're pretty good during duringyour service, but once you retire,70800:51:07,719 --> 00:51:12,159the skyrocket because I can finally getyou for being older. And a lot70900:51:12,199 --> 00:51:14,840of people that we've dealt with justget rid of Fegley. They don't need71000:51:14,880 --> 00:51:16,880it, and necessarily a lot ofthem don't even need life insurance in general.71100:51:17,440 --> 00:51:21,639But if they do, we lookfor different avenues rather than Fegley because71200:51:21,639 --> 00:51:25,400it's just astronaumic triple. Sometimes italso shows the breakdown of the federal employee71300:51:25,440 --> 00:51:30,079health benefit costs as well, whichis kind of like the federal employees versions71400:51:30,079 --> 00:51:36,039of their Medicare advantage on top ofthe Mediccare WHI that we've dealt with have71500:51:36,239 --> 00:51:39,559kept their Ah, yeah, it'sa great federal employee. Simply tell me71600:51:39,639 --> 00:51:45,159what the process is. I've gotthree years, five years to go before71700:51:45,159 --> 00:51:47,400I retire you or one year,it doesn't matter, yes, So essentially71800:51:47,639 --> 00:51:52,440the first step is to get theSF fifty form. That's will put exactly71900:51:52,480 --> 00:51:58,360what the well, if you letme talk us, it's a it shows72000:51:58,519 --> 00:52:02,440your current pay right your base pay, as well as your your compute your72100:52:02,519 --> 00:52:07,559service computation date, so that's thedate that you started service with the federal72200:52:07,639 --> 00:52:10,599civilian side, when you have thosetwo figures, you're able to thenk calculate72300:52:10,880 --> 00:52:15,480what the pension should look like atretirement. You're actually able to also look72400:52:15,559 --> 00:52:16,960like, what does the pension looklike if I retired at sixty two,72500:52:17,119 --> 00:52:22,079sixty five, sixty Obviously, we'realso able to project out the Special Employee72600:52:22,079 --> 00:52:29,039Retirement Supplement, which is the pensionthat is awarded to federal employees for the72700:52:29,079 --> 00:52:32,679period between fifty seven and sixty twobefore Social Security kicks in. So there's72800:52:32,679 --> 00:52:37,639a lot of different moving parts,but just with that SF fifty form,72900:52:37,639 --> 00:52:40,400that's really all will need. Andthen after that we're able to put in73000:52:40,440 --> 00:52:45,280all the computation from there and projectout where where would what would it would73100:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,199look like? Yeah, and that'show we find your pension. And then73200:52:47,199 --> 00:52:52,519we use that information and put itinto our holistic financial plan that will take73300:52:52,559 --> 00:52:59,599into account your Social Security, yourTSP, your spouses Form k TSP if73400:52:59,599 --> 00:53:01,039they are too, and we cantake in account all that and then it'll73500:53:01,079 --> 00:53:05,880show your pension that's added into thatgive you more of a holistic picture of73600:53:05,880 --> 00:53:09,320what your financial plan could look likeduring retirement, to see if you need73700:53:09,360 --> 00:53:15,519any gap, if you need anygap filled in between expenses and income during73800:53:15,559 --> 00:53:17,480retirement. You can also look atwhat does it look like if I'm taking73900:53:17,679 --> 00:53:23,840a full pension versus a fifty percentsurvivors survivor benefit, Because when you do74000:53:23,880 --> 00:53:30,519a survivor benefit, you're reducing youryour pension benefit per month. Some people74100:53:30,559 --> 00:53:34,960don't want to do that, butyou can instead of having the insurance with74200:53:35,000 --> 00:53:37,920the survivor benefit, you can geta term insurance and then use the maximum74300:53:37,920 --> 00:53:43,880pension. So there's a lot ofdifferent pension maximization strategies you can look into,74400:53:44,000 --> 00:53:46,440and this software actually is able toshow us whether it's going to be74500:53:46,519 --> 00:53:52,800valuable or not. Yeah, it'sa great tool. So all this stuff74600:53:52,079 --> 00:53:55,920that we're doing as complimentary. Soif your federal employee and you're just thinking74700:53:55,920 --> 00:53:59,800about retirement or you're getting closer retirement, just give us a call and we74800:53:59,800 --> 00:54:02,239can over all this in detail andin person. Yeah, we're working on74900:54:02,280 --> 00:54:09,519a workshop for a more communitywide seminarreally explaining what it's all about. But75000:54:09,800 --> 00:54:14,199if you're an individual who don't wantto wait until December, that's when the75100:54:14,239 --> 00:54:17,400seminar we're kind of trying to lookfor, call in and we'll have all75200:54:17,480 --> 00:54:21,400we have all the things we needto do right now, so we're ready75300:54:21,400 --> 00:54:22,719to go for it. And it'snot it's not something that you guys are75400:54:22,719 --> 00:54:27,360doing to get names and addresses soyou can hound these people until they become75500:54:27,480 --> 00:54:30,639clients, right. I mean,it really is a service, and if75600:54:30,679 --> 00:54:34,159you become a client as a resultof that, that's wonderful. But it's75700:54:34,199 --> 00:54:37,760something that we're doing as a communityservice to federal employees. They're retiring federal75800:54:37,760 --> 00:54:42,639employes, most federal employees. We'rejust educating them about their options and they're75900:54:42,679 --> 00:54:45,159not close to retirement, so it'sone, two, three years before we76000:54:45,199 --> 00:54:49,840get well and especially during the seminarToddles talking about in December. It's an76100:54:49,960 --> 00:54:53,400educational seminar. And then if you'reinterested in doing the financial plan or find76200:54:53,440 --> 00:54:58,280out your pension projections afterwards, andthat's when we could talk. We're not76300:54:58,280 --> 00:55:00,039going to sit there and make youcome talk to us because he went to76400:55:00,079 --> 00:55:04,239the seminar. But you're not openingthe door. You're not opening the door76500:55:04,320 --> 00:55:07,000that you're never going to be ableto close, like when you make a76600:55:07,000 --> 00:55:12,559political contribution, right exactly, that'sonly if you're interested, if you show76700:55:12,599 --> 00:55:15,000it. I don't think we summarizedthe market at the top of the hour76800:55:15,079 --> 00:55:19,519there which do you want to summariz? Sure? Go ahead, it's oh76900:55:19,559 --> 00:55:21,280you don't want to do it,Sure, I'll be happy to do It77000:55:21,320 --> 00:55:23,880was a very quiet week in themarket. The Dow ended up gaining just77100:55:24,039 --> 00:55:30,159forty two points. SMP five hundredwas down seven points, down fifty three77200:55:30,199 --> 00:55:31,800points, so all at all,pretty quiet. Although it was a ball77300:55:31,880 --> 00:55:36,239it's a week. There was abig upday on Tuesday, I believe it77400:55:36,280 --> 00:55:40,280wasn't a big down day on Friday. A lot of different forces pulling against77500:55:40,360 --> 00:55:46,719the market. Quite a movement Teslathis week. Early in the week was77600:55:47,000 --> 00:55:51,360Monday, I believe it was MorganStanley upgrade that the stock to a buy77700:55:51,679 --> 00:55:53,840stock jumped ten percent. Uh youknow, and you say, well,77800:55:53,880 --> 00:55:59,119gosh, Tesla's got a high peit's got increasing competition. They're having to77900:55:59,199 --> 00:56:02,880keep a lowerings. You know,why would why would Morgan Stanley decide that78000:56:02,960 --> 00:56:07,360this is a time to upgrade thestock. They think the charging station business78100:56:08,039 --> 00:56:14,440could be worth as much as onehundred billion dollars and Tesla's Tesla is in78200:56:14,519 --> 00:56:16,559charge of that right now, incharge of the charging stations. Yeah,78300:56:16,599 --> 00:56:20,480and you know who's not in chargeof the charging stations. It's charge Point,78400:56:20,519 --> 00:56:23,880charge Point charge Point of stock thatwe've we've followed. We don't have78500:56:23,920 --> 00:56:29,679a lot of but we've followed it. They're the largest charging station company company78600:56:29,719 --> 00:56:34,599in the country. They have sixtythousand charging stations. I believe in Tesla78700:56:34,639 --> 00:56:39,679has fifty thousand charging stations, butgo ahead the sixty thousand that charge Point78800:56:39,679 --> 00:56:44,440has their level three, their leveltwo, oh, level two, Level78900:56:44,480 --> 00:56:49,639two. Level two is fine iffor hotels and the level three is what79000:56:49,760 --> 00:56:52,400you really want. Eleven three,which one if you're out on the road79100:56:52,519 --> 00:56:58,880traveling from that's that's what Tesla hasactually lucrative and out of sixty thousand charging79200:56:58,920 --> 00:57:06,280stations, charge charge Point has sixteenhundred Level three. Yeah, and if79300:57:06,320 --> 00:57:08,679you're out travel at level two chargersare the ones you use at home.79400:57:09,119 --> 00:57:13,519There's the ones that would be ina hotel parking lot where you're stopping overnight.79500:57:13,559 --> 00:57:16,440They're the ones that would be ata hospital where for employees, maybe79600:57:17,159 --> 00:57:21,320maybe out of Raytheon. I'm imagineRaytheon's probably got a bunch of level two79700:57:21,400 --> 00:57:25,239chargers out there. How long doesthe chargers last? That's their life the79800:57:25,599 --> 00:57:29,400I have no idea, and Idon't know the Teslaly even knows at that79900:57:29,519 --> 00:57:34,000point. But a level two chargertakes we'll get you about forty miles of80000:57:34,119 --> 00:57:37,280charge per hour. Because there's gotto be about five years that we're gonna80100:57:37,280 --> 00:57:42,639have a level four, right,there's something. There's different level threes.80200:57:42,719 --> 00:57:46,119Also, a lot Cantata has aseventy five kilowat because though there's the one,80300:57:46,119 --> 00:57:50,519they've been around about ten years,they've got seventy five kilowat. So80400:57:50,559 --> 00:57:52,840I think it becomes the case thatthey're just they're just more and more.80500:57:52,920 --> 00:57:58,639Yeah, sot out at Aina anduh uh no Orange Grove. In the80600:57:58,639 --> 00:58:02,360freeway, there's a bank of twofifty kill a lot chargers, which are80700:58:02,440 --> 00:58:06,639nice. But then you go upto Elo. Eloy has a brand new80800:58:06,800 --> 00:58:10,199Eloy of all places as a brandnew bank up three fifty kill a lot80900:58:10,280 --> 00:58:15,199chargers half of mine. You goup to Elo just to check out the81000:58:15,280 --> 00:58:20,239three fifty chargers. Kind of interesting, but you know it. Testla controls81100:58:20,239 --> 00:58:23,440that you got it home. Youalways have a level two. You won't81200:58:23,440 --> 00:58:27,760have anything above a level two inyour garage. Two things you can charge81300:58:27,800 --> 00:58:30,559at home. One is a levelone where you simply plug it into the81400:58:30,559 --> 00:58:36,360wall. That takes about three days. Uh. Level two. I've programmed81500:58:36,360 --> 00:58:39,800my car to charge overnight so whenthe electric rates are cheaper, so it81600:58:40,280 --> 00:58:44,159has a ninety percent charge ready togo. That that, by the way,81700:58:44,280 --> 00:58:47,119is a maximum charged for day today use. If you're going to81800:58:47,159 --> 00:58:50,039take a trip, you want toget to one hundred percent. But day81900:58:50,039 --> 00:58:52,519to day use they say ninety percent. You can program it to charge up82000:58:52,519 --> 00:58:57,039to ninety percent. It happens inthe overnight hours. Every morning when I82100:58:57,039 --> 00:59:00,760get in my car, I've gotninety percent charge. It was kind kind82200:59:00,800 --> 00:59:05,559of having to although I do,I will say I'm still at QT four82300:59:05,639 --> 00:59:08,199or five times a week. Ican't. I can't break my QT have82400:59:08,360 --> 00:59:12,159it. The interesting thing about theand I told you about QT, by82500:59:12,199 --> 00:59:15,360the way, The interesting thing aboutF one fifty and the Fords that we82600:59:15,400 --> 00:59:20,599talked about earlier is that the Fordis trying to incentivize the hybrid F one82700:59:20,719 --> 00:59:25,159fifty more so because they're not gettingthe the sales out of the hybrid version82800:59:25,159 --> 00:59:29,400of it as much, and theycan't deliver the electric because they can't manufacture82900:59:29,559 --> 00:59:31,840enough, so they're they're lowering theprice on the hybrid f one fifty two83000:59:31,840 --> 00:59:36,719thousand dollars to incentivize people. Peopledon't think the hybrid would be better.83100:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,280I think most people do. Dean, I think that Todd never. Yeah,83200:59:40,280 --> 00:59:45,440we looked at noon and we'll goahead. Hybrid vehicle sales began in83300:59:45,519 --> 00:59:50,239nineteen ninety nine. Hybrid vehicles capturedthree point two percent of the light vehicle83400:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,039market in twenty thirteen, and thenfive point five percent in twenty twenty one.83500:59:53,760 --> 00:59:58,199All electric vehicles only accounted for threepoint two percent and twenty one,83600:59:58,280 --> 01:00:00,440so there's about a two percent gettingthere. But I don't know. I83701:00:00,440 --> 01:00:02,960mean, if you think about it, does it really make sense? I83801:00:02,960 --> 01:00:07,280mean, there's all going electric,it doesn't, but they keep pushing it.83901:00:07,519 --> 01:00:10,440Well, I just won't work.And not like you're showing, David,84001:00:10,519 --> 01:00:15,239doesn't help that much. You're talkingone hundred dollars a month. Maybe,84101:00:15,480 --> 01:00:17,400yeah, it could cost wise.You know, there's a lot of84201:00:17,840 --> 01:00:22,400fun things about it, but rightnow I have to classify it as an84301:00:22,559 --> 01:00:24,320as an expensive toy. It's onehundred dollars a month cheaper, but it's84401:00:24,360 --> 01:00:27,880also then you got to get thenew car, you gotta get the charging84501:00:27,920 --> 01:00:30,880station at your house. If youdo all those expenses, that's more than84601:00:30,920 --> 01:00:32,800it's going to be. That's atleast a thousand bucks. That's at least84701:00:32,800 --> 01:00:37,440a thousand bucks. And and uhagree, you don't exactly. Yeah,84801:00:37,440 --> 01:00:40,239you don't have the maintenance that youhave with a gas powered car. You84901:00:40,239 --> 01:00:43,760know, the belts and hoses andall that stuff. You don't have that.85001:00:43,880 --> 01:00:45,960So so that's a positive. Butyou don't have the range yet.85101:00:46,480 --> 01:00:51,400So it's again, I'm not pro, I'm not con I'm just I'm in85201:00:51,440 --> 01:00:54,440it for the experience and I'm gettinga hell of an education. The inflation85301:00:54,519 --> 01:00:59,440numbers came out, Dean a CPIjumped for the second time this year,85401:00:59,639 --> 01:01:02,679right three point seven percent. I'mlooking at a chart of the types of85501:01:02,760 --> 01:01:08,039things that impacted it. Obviously gasolinewas one of the things that impacted up85601:01:08,039 --> 01:01:14,800ten point six percent month over month, But for the last twelve months,85701:01:15,039 --> 01:01:19,800it's interesting to see that the big, the big, biggest increase is motor85801:01:19,880 --> 01:01:23,440vehicle insurance. And we've had AnthonyFiguro on here talking about that about how85901:01:24,079 --> 01:01:28,360it's so much more costly to repairthings, so much more costly to get86001:01:28,400 --> 01:01:32,760parts. Nineteen percent increase in motorvehicle insurance. The biggest drop over the86101:01:32,800 --> 01:01:38,679last twelve months. Airline fares.Airline fares over the last twelve months,86201:01:39,679 --> 01:01:43,840which I thought was was surprising.DN you fly more than I do?86301:01:43,920 --> 01:01:45,599For sure, I don't see himdown that much, down thirteen percent over86401:01:45,639 --> 01:01:51,599the last twelve months. Televisions Ican see that down ten percent. TVs86501:01:51,639 --> 01:01:55,199just keep getting cheaper and cheaper andcheaper. Utilities, gas and natural gas86601:01:55,239 --> 01:02:00,440down sixteen percent over the last twelveNatural gas prices have clashed, which is86701:02:00,480 --> 01:02:06,599probably good news if you were inEurope right with winter, with winter coming86801:02:06,719 --> 01:02:09,599once again and uh and the warcontinuing to go on. It's just like,86901:02:10,719 --> 01:02:15,000okay, all right, calendar fornext week. We got the fat87001:02:15,079 --> 01:02:20,199on Wednesday, we got the That'sthat's the big What they're gonna say,87101:02:20,519 --> 01:02:22,039are they gonna you know, becausethen if they come and say they're raising87201:02:22,599 --> 01:02:27,239I mean in February, in November, then guess what, Yeah, in87301:02:27,280 --> 01:02:30,840October? Did you see what theECB did this week? They raised it.87401:02:30,880 --> 01:02:34,039But what they were really worried aboutwas what Legard was going to say87501:02:34,039 --> 01:02:37,199in her press conference, and shedid say that this is kind of her87601:02:37,280 --> 01:02:39,880last pause and less economic doubt,it goes really strong. She says she's87701:02:39,920 --> 01:02:45,159seen economic becoming turning over a littlebit, and she thinks it's the last87801:02:45,280 --> 01:02:47,920one. So that was a thatwas a big statement from that. That87901:02:49,039 --> 01:02:52,079was one. I mean, that'sjust the second. Yes, that's the88001:02:52,079 --> 01:02:57,719biggest central bank other than exactly whatPowell says. I mean, just want88101:02:57,719 --> 01:03:00,320to say, if someone was talkingthe other day, we lead the world88201:03:00,920 --> 01:03:07,320in economic policy. Yes, okay, Unfortunately we're not doing anything economic policy,88301:03:07,320 --> 01:03:12,119accept monetary policy. Okay, that'sit. Oh, we need them88401:03:12,159 --> 01:03:16,760to do something. We need apoliticians to do something, do something with88501:03:16,840 --> 01:03:20,960the board, to do something withenergy. They all they keep doing is88601:03:21,000 --> 01:03:24,440shutting down energy and prices just keeprising. I mean they should we be88701:03:24,599 --> 01:03:29,559imput porting oil. They are doingsomething, and they're just making themselves money88801:03:29,599 --> 01:03:32,440by sending money to Ukraine so theyget more. When there are those out88901:03:32,480 --> 01:03:37,039there that would say that the moneyis being spent, there are those out89001:03:37,039 --> 01:03:38,960there to stay that oil price isrising. Is a part of the plan,89101:03:39,119 --> 01:03:44,800part of the strategic plan to forcepeople into electric But how does that89201:03:44,960 --> 01:03:49,039bring down inflation for the feed?Yeah, I mean you want to force89301:03:49,079 --> 01:03:52,199people in the electure if they can'tafford an electric car. Prices keep going89401:03:52,280 --> 01:03:53,280up. Oh no, well notonly that, Dylan, I don't know89501:03:53,360 --> 01:03:57,400that the average person can even beginto afford an electric car. Yeah,89601:03:57,440 --> 01:04:02,400they're expensive. They're very expensive.That they're states where they are, it's89701:04:02,440 --> 01:04:08,679even more. Yeah, I'm takingaway the right off. It's aery,89801:04:08,760 --> 01:04:13,239but I don't know how much legsit has. It didn't have much legs89901:04:13,280 --> 01:04:15,960two months ago. Let's put itthat way. It's a rich man's toy90001:04:15,719 --> 01:04:18,760electric car at this point. It'sridiculous. We've got to get them more90101:04:18,800 --> 01:04:24,719affordable. The average person just can'teven be competition. You know, we90201:04:24,719 --> 01:04:27,599were talking about China a little bitearlier, and we've we've talked on the90301:04:27,639 --> 01:04:30,920show quite a bit about Starbucks andhow China is a huge market for them.90401:04:30,960 --> 01:04:38,639It's their second largest market. Youknow that Starbucks has seven thousand stores90501:04:38,679 --> 01:04:45,519in China, but Lucking Coffee hasten thousand stores in China. Isn't Lucking90601:04:45,559 --> 01:04:47,920Coffee the one that went public forlike a week? Yes, bank dropt90701:04:48,079 --> 01:04:50,639or whatever happened. Yeah, Wellthey're they've got ten thousand stores. They90801:04:50,679 --> 01:04:55,760passed in June. They passed Starbucksin a number of stores they're opening.90901:04:55,760 --> 01:04:58,960And we've talked about Starbucks opening oneevery nine hours, luck, and must91001:04:58,960 --> 01:05:00,719be opening one every couple well,I mean not every nine hours. And91101:05:00,719 --> 01:05:03,159then in the US are still openingthem too. But yeah, speaking of91201:05:03,199 --> 01:05:08,360Starbucks hour shorts, Shultz stepped downagain from that for the third time,91301:05:08,480 --> 01:05:11,000for the third time, and thistime, I mean he's in the seventies,91401:05:11,000 --> 01:05:15,199probably stepping down for good. Justseventy seventy young man still and then91501:05:15,199 --> 01:05:18,320come on for you and he Idon't think he's going back to the third91601:05:18,360 --> 01:05:23,639stint that he's gonna be done.But they replaced them with way Zang,91701:05:24,440 --> 01:05:28,360who served as a senior advisor toAli Baba and Alibaba Pictures Group. So91801:05:28,440 --> 01:05:31,920they're thinking the idea behind that isas somebody who's been in the China economy91901:05:32,119 --> 01:05:34,400for a long time to run that, and then they're probably gonna try and92001:05:34,559 --> 01:05:39,440expand there more too. You weretalking about politicians a minute ago. Here's92101:05:39,440 --> 01:05:42,119a good one Biden this past week. I don't if you saw when he92201:05:42,199 --> 01:05:45,639was over at the the G sevenconference, whatever heck he was. This92301:05:45,719 --> 01:05:53,559is a quote global warming rising onepoint five degrees celsius, which is two92401:05:53,599 --> 01:05:59,039point seven degrees fahrenheit. For younon Europeans, rising one point five percent92501:05:59,360 --> 01:06:03,679five degrees celsius in the next twentyyears is more scary than the nuclear war.92601:06:05,880 --> 01:06:10,440That was a quote. That's whatquote. He really believes that.92701:06:11,920 --> 01:06:14,239I don't think he really believes Ithink it was on a teleprompter and he92801:06:14,320 --> 01:06:17,519just said it. Are you kiddingme? There's no way you can really92901:06:17,519 --> 01:06:21,519believe that. And with that said, Bloomberg also reported last week that the93001:06:21,599 --> 01:06:26,360Chinese government, and I told youguys, that's the Chinese government has now93101:06:26,360 --> 01:06:32,960approved more new coal fired power plantsthan exist in the United States, coal93201:06:33,000 --> 01:06:35,960power, nuclear, coal power.Yeah, because aren't they making more nuclear93301:06:36,000 --> 01:06:40,760power? Absolutely nuclear, but coalpower. The Chinese government has approved more93401:06:41,119 --> 01:06:45,440coal power power, coal power plants, coal fired, full fired, thanks93501:06:45,760 --> 01:06:49,880coal fired power plants then exist inthe United States. So it seems to93601:06:49,920 --> 01:06:55,880me that this war on global warmingis being fought by just one country.93701:06:56,519 --> 01:07:00,239Does anything like it? Didn't feellike it is. It's ways for them93801:07:00,239 --> 01:07:02,960to get more money so they canhold on to it to do other things.93901:07:03,559 --> 01:07:09,239Think about how much money the bigstates have New York, California that94001:07:09,320 --> 01:07:12,719keeps getting all the ev money andall. Yeah, and the companies.94101:07:13,000 --> 01:07:16,199What about another trucking company that theygave money to that we're out of business?94201:07:17,000 --> 01:07:21,159Yeah. Yeah. We've been hearinga lot this week with Kim Jong94301:07:21,239 --> 01:07:29,239ung going to Russia and putin meetingwith him and then having a loaf fest94401:07:29,559 --> 01:07:33,920about propaganda, propaganda from North Korea, propaganda from Russia. So I looked94501:07:34,000 --> 01:07:41,719up propaganda propaganda, information, especiallyof a biased or misleading nature, used94601:07:41,760 --> 01:07:46,039for promote or publicize a particular politicalpoint of view. Sounds to me like94701:07:46,079 --> 01:07:49,320we're getting it here pretty good too. You know what propaganda? You know,94801:07:49,440 --> 01:07:59,519they change the word propaganda into marketing. That's all it is. I'm94901:07:59,559 --> 01:08:02,199looking at the work, look atthe definition of propaganda, thinking, man,95001:08:02,239 --> 01:08:06,719how much propaganda do we have inthis country from it's marketing. It's95101:08:06,760 --> 01:08:10,280marketing, that's all. I mean, you'd rather have nuclear war? What95201:08:10,400 --> 01:08:15,440information isn't biased? He just saidsuch stupid things. I mean, it's95301:08:15,519 --> 01:08:19,479ridiculous. I have an interesting politicalone. California lawmakers. I mean this95401:08:19,520 --> 01:08:24,319is new, but they passed thatlandmark fast food bill. That's the one95501:08:24,399 --> 01:08:29,479where it would make the wage floorof twenty dollars for California workers have fast95601:08:29,479 --> 01:08:33,239food chains where they have at leastsixty locations nationwide. That's going to start95701:08:33,279 --> 01:08:38,159April first, and Gavin Newson alreadysaid he's going to sign it. It's95801:08:38,159 --> 01:08:44,760going to his desk late Thursday.And the McDonald's franchise these group says it's95901:08:44,800 --> 01:08:48,279going to be a devastating financial blowif if that does come in, they96001:08:49,279 --> 01:08:54,199cost him of the two hundred andfifty thousand dollars annually and it's stated that96101:08:54,239 --> 01:08:57,119the costs cannot be able to workby this business model that they currently have96201:08:57,439 --> 01:09:01,079now signed by over a thousand McDonald'sowners. Wow, Well but they don't96301:09:01,079 --> 01:09:03,720care. And that's why they're goingto get start just getting rid of employers96401:09:03,720 --> 01:09:08,119and trying to do the robots andserve them and then it won't even matter96501:09:08,159 --> 01:09:11,479the play. Yeah, and tomake sure the robots work. Well,96601:09:11,520 --> 01:09:15,439you see more and more of that, and in a lot of different stores,96701:09:15,039 --> 01:09:18,319a lot of different stores having checkout of this, checkout stuff like96801:09:18,359 --> 01:09:20,119this. You think of McDonald's justgonna be like, Okay, yeah,96901:09:20,159 --> 01:09:23,720we'll take it. We'll lose twohundred fifty grand a year, just whatever,97001:09:24,159 --> 01:09:27,479and we're not gonna take that.And and to that point, and97101:09:27,560 --> 01:09:30,079we talked about retail sales. Producerprices is which is the other side,97201:09:30,159 --> 01:09:34,800right, I mean they are.It came in above expectations again this month97301:09:35,560 --> 01:09:40,600in an increase to the sharpest levelin over fourteen months, which was driven97401:09:40,760 --> 01:09:43,960by a ten point five percent jumpand energy prices. Right, So,97501:09:44,159 --> 01:09:46,520I mean if the producer has topay more for input costs, they're going97601:09:46,560 --> 01:09:49,880to pass that cost down to theconsumer, which is going to continue to97701:09:49,920 --> 01:09:54,399keep inflation higher. Yeah, thePPI to CPI, the retail sales all97801:09:54,439 --> 01:09:57,960related to gasoline. Yep, allrelated to gasoline. So we had a97901:09:58,000 --> 01:10:04,000four percent drop across the board onFriday and ship stocks including Nvidia after Barons98001:10:04,079 --> 01:10:11,720reported the Taiwan Semiconductor that's the world'slargest UH semi conductor manufacturer, told suppliers98101:10:11,760 --> 01:10:15,760to delay some deliveries amid concerns aboutslowing chip demand. Now, why would98201:10:15,760 --> 01:10:19,880you delay deliveries? Is it sothey don't get what they want? I98301:10:19,920 --> 01:10:24,359guess so they don't have to payfor it, right, you have to98401:10:24,399 --> 01:10:29,119pay for it when it's delivered intheory or within some spreading out, spreading98501:10:29,159 --> 01:10:33,920out deliverstic delivery every month or somethinglike that. We're good right now,98601:10:34,000 --> 01:10:36,800Yeah, we're good. It's slowingdown when I'm making his maid chips and98701:10:36,920 --> 01:10:42,159yet and Video on the other sidewhere their AI chip, Uh, they98801:10:42,439 --> 01:10:45,640cannot meet the demand, cannot meetthe demand. And with that said,98901:10:46,159 --> 01:10:54,119I saw a report on CNBC lastweek that virtually no one has monetized AI99001:10:54,239 --> 01:10:59,079yet. Right, it's in theplannings. It's like the the the electric99101:10:59,079 --> 01:11:01,720car chargers. Right, nobody's makingany money off and they're just building out99201:11:01,800 --> 01:11:04,359the system. And that's what itis with AI. We've talked about that99301:11:04,399 --> 01:11:09,279on the show. You've got toget things in place and they're not monetized99401:11:09,279 --> 01:11:14,560and nobody is. So all ofthis UH stock run up in relation to99501:11:14,600 --> 01:11:18,119AI, be careful. Yeah,speaking of chips arm Holdings when public last99601:11:18,159 --> 01:11:20,880week, Yeah, big diferent unddollars a share of value in the company99701:11:20,920 --> 01:11:25,760of fifty four billion dollars. Itstarted trading at roughly sixty three dollars a99801:11:25,800 --> 01:11:28,720share. That's the biggest IPO ofthe year. And this is a UK99901:11:28,840 --> 01:11:32,600based chip design company who and Videostry to buy at one point twenty Yeah,100001:11:32,720 --> 01:11:36,880for evaluation, dealing on that withthat IPO, the valuation is over100101:11:36,920 --> 01:11:44,640fifty percent the valuation that Nvidia haswith ten percent of the sales. They've100201:11:44,680 --> 01:11:46,520got ten percent of the sales,ten percent of the revenue of Nvidia,100301:11:46,920 --> 01:11:51,520and the market cap is almost sixtypercent of end videos. Wow. Yeah,100401:11:51,560 --> 01:11:55,079and that puts their pe multiple outabout one hundred and four. So100501:11:55,079 --> 01:11:59,479it's a big growth company. ButARM is selling to customers that include Apple,100601:11:59,520 --> 01:12:03,720Google and Video and Samsung companies.Big business. Well, all right,100701:12:03,760 --> 01:12:06,880sounds good. We right back.We have a little bit more time100801:12:06,960 --> 01:12:12,199left on our show here. Weappreciate your listening to the Money Boutty Show100901:12:12,199 --> 01:12:15,239with Dean Greenberg and the rest ofus from Greenberg Financial Group. We'll be101001:12:15,359 --> 01:12:29,439right back. Say it's all aoh, welcome back everybody. This is101101:12:29,439 --> 01:12:33,319the Money Batty Show. Dave,Dylan, Todd and myself love talking to101201:12:33,399 --> 01:12:36,319you. Obviously, if you needto talk to us, you can call101301:12:36,399 --> 01:12:41,039us, send an appointment with us. We'll be glad to sit down.101401:12:41,760 --> 01:12:45,199We do the financial plans complimentary,all right. We don't hold back.101501:12:45,239 --> 01:12:48,600We'll give you a whole entire planwhether you do business with us or not.101601:12:48,680 --> 01:12:53,439It's very important that caveats, veryvery important because a lot of people101701:12:53,479 --> 01:12:55,680say, oh, yeah, we'lldo a free plan. They'll go all101801:12:55,680 --> 01:12:58,319of it with you, but they'llnever give it to you unless you actually101901:12:58,399 --> 01:13:00,279do business. And I want totouch is one more time. And we've102001:13:00,279 --> 01:13:03,319talked about it many times on theshow, but the MAGA, the multi102101:13:03,439 --> 01:13:06,880year guaranteed annuity, it's one ofthe greatest times you could be into this102201:13:06,920 --> 01:13:10,800product because of the interest rate environment. We've talked about it early in the102301:13:10,800 --> 01:13:13,920show. We haven't seen rates likethis in the past twenty years. The102401:13:13,960 --> 01:13:16,880reason right now it can be sobeneficial is because we have this inversion into102501:13:16,920 --> 01:13:20,199the yield curve. Right So ifyou're looking at a five point four percent102601:13:20,239 --> 01:13:23,279on the Treasury, you're saying,oh, that's great, I want to102701:13:23,319 --> 01:13:27,560lock that in. But what happensafter that matures? Right in one year's102801:13:27,560 --> 01:13:30,920time, you have no idea whatthe interest rate environment's going to be.102901:13:30,920 --> 01:13:33,079It could be vastly lower, itcould be vastly higher. You don't know.103001:13:33,279 --> 01:13:36,520Probably not vastly higher, because ifit got much higher, the economy103101:13:36,560 --> 01:13:40,039would collapse, you would think,and then it would go lower, you103201:13:40,039 --> 01:13:43,359would think. So, I thinkyou're getting close. Could it go to103301:13:44,520 --> 01:13:48,960six? You know that the FedFunds rate is could we go up another103401:13:49,000 --> 01:13:53,000half a percent? Yes. Theidea though, is that the MAGA can103501:13:53,000 --> 01:13:56,960lock in five point a little threepercent for three to five to seven years,103601:13:56,960 --> 01:13:59,720like Todd was getting at No fantastic. I think it's a great product,103701:13:59,720 --> 01:14:01,520great idea, and did You're absolutelyright. But when you can lock103801:14:01,600 --> 01:14:06,079it in, you get tax deferredstate tax defer growth. Obviously you're still103901:14:06,079 --> 01:14:11,439gonna you're not gonna be paying statefederal tax defer, That's what I'm at.104001:14:11,520 --> 01:14:15,279And you get tax deferred growth duringthose five years, right, So104101:14:15,880 --> 01:14:18,199there's very few products you're gonna beable to see that. And again,104201:14:18,439 --> 01:14:21,560five point three guaranteed four or fiveyears. A lot of people are on104301:14:21,640 --> 01:14:25,359money market funds right now and they'resaying, hey, I'm getting five percent,104401:14:25,399 --> 01:14:28,800four point nine, five point twopercent. That's fine, But realize104501:14:28,840 --> 01:14:32,359that is not a guaranteed rate.That is a fluctuating rate that can change104601:14:32,479 --> 01:14:36,479vastly, very quickly too. Andremember from these what I was the point104701:14:36,520 --> 01:14:42,119I was trying to make is fromthese levels, the rates are much much104801:14:42,199 --> 01:14:45,319more likely to go down than theyare to go up. Right, And104901:14:45,319 --> 01:14:49,600so with this mega product, ifyou have safe dollars, put away and105001:14:49,640 --> 01:14:54,680you want to get a higher rateof interest, this is a great product105101:14:54,760 --> 01:14:58,880to go into as well. Asyou have five percent five point three percent105201:14:58,960 --> 01:15:01,439the interest, you can take outpenalty free each year, right, and105301:15:01,479 --> 01:15:04,840that normally satisfies r and DS too. So if you have money sitting in105401:15:04,840 --> 01:15:08,680an IRA that you don't want tobe in equities right now, you can105501:15:08,760 --> 01:15:12,560transfer that into a MICA product.There's a lot of different avenues where you105601:15:12,600 --> 01:15:17,119can get you know, guaranteed interestwhen there's not a lot of reward left105701:15:17,319 --> 01:15:20,800in equities. We've been talking aboutit. We are high on valuations and105801:15:20,840 --> 01:15:24,720there's a lot of risk. Soif you're someone who wants to avoid that105901:15:24,880 --> 01:15:28,119risk in an environment where there's nota lot of reward left and equity markets106001:15:28,359 --> 01:15:30,560take advantage of the interest rates.Thank you, dude. Do you guys106101:15:30,560 --> 01:15:34,079hear the good news on Monday?Big news out of Monday morning? First106201:15:34,079 --> 01:15:39,920thing, right, the FDA hasapproved the new COVID vaccine from Feizer and106301:15:40,000 --> 01:15:46,520Moderna YEP, and the two stocksresponded by going lower. I can't imagine106401:15:47,319 --> 01:15:51,199there's going to be a lot ofdemand after witnessing what happened in China.106501:15:51,239 --> 01:15:57,520We watch China stay in lockdown forthree years and come out and people start106601:15:57,600 --> 01:16:00,920dying left and right. It's it'sa process we have to work our way106701:16:00,920 --> 01:16:05,760through. And to that end,I got applaud Huntington Beach over and over106801:16:05,800 --> 01:16:11,399and on the left coast in OrangeCounty, which is uh probably is coaster106901:16:11,399 --> 01:16:15,359to Republican County as you're going toget in most of California, especially coastal107001:16:15,439 --> 01:16:25,479California. Huntington Beach band excuse me, outlawed mask bands outlawed mask mandates a107101:16:25,520 --> 01:16:28,159week ago. So I give themcredit for saying, no, we're not107201:16:28,199 --> 01:16:30,920going down that road again. Soyou hear talk about the mask you here107301:16:30,960 --> 01:16:34,199talks about the vaccine. It's justgoing to be really interesting this fall to107401:16:34,279 --> 01:16:41,079see if that just falls on deafears or or what. But Madonna did107501:16:41,119 --> 01:16:45,159have one good day, correct.I think Monday was that they were both107601:16:45,159 --> 01:16:46,760down when I looked at them.They were both down on Monday morning.107701:16:46,920 --> 01:16:51,279After I after the news and setup on Tuesday or Wednesday, it was107801:16:51,359 --> 01:16:56,840some other news item related to acancer drug. Yeah, because it totally107901:16:56,880 --> 01:17:01,520unrelated to COVID Friday, Yeah,totally unrelated to it. Yeah, I'm108001:17:01,560 --> 01:17:05,359going to do the evy garage again. And you know, I think I108101:17:05,399 --> 01:17:12,439think I'm fair and impartial when itcomes to this. And one of the108201:17:12,520 --> 01:17:16,479challenges of electric vehicles has been findinga reliable source of material for the batteries.108301:17:16,520 --> 01:17:20,359I think we'd all agree China isway ahead of the US and inking108401:17:20,439 --> 01:17:27,119deals with Africa, where a lotof those resources lie. Wall Street Journal108501:17:27,159 --> 01:17:31,279reported last week that the US isin talks with Saudi Arabia to secure medals108601:17:31,319 --> 01:17:36,479in Africa. Get this, Thestate backed Saudi venture would buy stakes in108701:17:36,520 --> 01:17:42,720the mining assets worth fifteen billion dollarsin several African companies, and they would108801:17:42,760 --> 01:17:46,800permit the US to buy some ofthat production. Oh would they? Really?108901:17:46,880 --> 01:17:51,239We don't have fifteen billion or fissingaway trillions. We don't have fifteen109001:17:51,319 --> 01:17:56,319billion. We've got to have theSaudiast do that, and then we'll work109101:17:56,359 --> 01:18:00,079with the Saudeast and will once againbe beholding to the Soues. They've got109201:18:00,119 --> 01:18:02,880us beholding to them on oil.Now they're going to get us beholding to109301:18:02,960 --> 01:18:08,319them on minerals for batteries. Really, we don't need that. We do109401:18:08,399 --> 01:18:12,560have the largest lithium plant being developedin Nevada. Yes, gosh if they109501:18:12,560 --> 01:18:15,479would ever get the permits and allowthem to do that. It's it is109601:18:15,520 --> 01:18:21,039the largest lithium deposit in the worldreported to be On another note to Tesla109701:18:21,159 --> 01:18:28,439did install their first super charger abouttwelve years ago I believe it was uh109801:18:28,560 --> 01:18:35,560And on Wednesday they installed their fiftythousandth fifty thousand, So Tesla has fifty109901:18:35,600 --> 01:18:41,239thousand superchargers out there that that helpyou limp from one place to an I110001:18:41,239 --> 01:18:45,159shouldn't see it's because I know peoplethat have taken long trips in their electric110101:18:45,199 --> 01:18:47,039cars and have done it successfully.But you do have to have some time110201:18:47,079 --> 01:18:50,760on your hands, and you dohave to not be in a hurry to110301:18:51,199 --> 01:18:58,079get there. Right. Yeah,Disney ended there and Disney and Charter Communications110401:18:58,199 --> 01:19:00,560blackout fight that came to an endlast week right before Monday night football,110501:19:00,640 --> 01:19:04,039right before they needed yep, andDisney stock actually had a pretty good week.110601:19:04,359 --> 01:19:08,359It was up a couple percent.The terms of the deals are said110701:19:08,399 --> 01:19:13,640to include a discounted wholesale price forsubscribers for Disney streaming services and an increase110801:19:13,680 --> 01:19:16,520in the marketplace of subscriber fees paidto Disney. And on Friday, I110901:19:16,520 --> 01:19:21,560saw that ABC was interested in buyingsomething that Disney has, and I didn't111001:19:21,600 --> 01:19:25,439have time to buy the article.Disney was selling the ABC. Yeah,111101:19:25,479 --> 01:19:31,239Disney's and is interested in buying.No, Disney's interested in selling. Okay,111201:19:31,279 --> 01:19:36,640that's what Disney's interest is interested inselling ABC talks to someone else.111301:19:38,439 --> 01:19:41,119I just I saw the article,went buying it. Didn't have a chance111401:19:41,159 --> 01:19:45,760to read it. And I neverunderstood ABC and ESPN are considered separate now,111501:19:45,119 --> 01:19:49,800are right, But at one pointABC owned ESPN. Maybe ESPN has111601:19:49,840 --> 01:19:54,560been owned by four or five differentcompanies over the years. I think if111701:19:54,760 --> 01:19:58,680Disney took over eight Yeah, Imean there's been random talks about Apple buying111801:19:58,840 --> 01:20:02,079ESPN. There hasn't been any materialtalks from Disney. It's just a theory111901:20:02,319 --> 01:20:05,640that would sell for fifty fifty fivebillion dollars if Apple were to buy.112001:20:05,640 --> 01:20:12,199I thought a report of Apple buyingDisney did. Yeah, that was Now112101:20:12,199 --> 01:20:14,760why would they do that? Thatwas a week after the ESPN buy.112201:20:14,840 --> 01:20:16,520Yeah, why would he do becausethey're trying to be the first reporter to112301:20:16,560 --> 01:20:19,560say it. But Disney, again, is one of those socks that's down.112401:20:19,640 --> 01:20:24,439Nobody likes it. But from aDisney point, I mean from an112501:20:24,479 --> 01:20:28,079Apple point of view, you haveDisney Streaming, you have Apple TV.112601:20:28,199 --> 01:20:30,439You would just take Disney Streaming andput it into Apple TV. That's how112701:20:30,439 --> 01:20:34,079you would justify it. I likeit. I like we all like Raytheon.112801:20:34,199 --> 01:20:38,159I think we might get if wegot a down market, you might112901:20:38,199 --> 01:20:42,359actually get a wash out low andbelow seventy if you could. If you113001:20:42,399 --> 01:20:45,199could get that, I would thinkthat would be a pretty attractive entry point.113101:20:45,279 --> 01:20:46,359Yeah. I like my dad wassaying, every mind is kind of113201:20:46,920 --> 01:20:50,359similar to Bowing. It is,well, Bowing was doing a couple of113301:20:50,399 --> 01:20:53,359years ago with all this stuff goingon, and then I mean, it's113401:20:53,359 --> 01:20:56,439a resilient company. So you thinkit's going to still be making its missiles113501:20:56,439 --> 01:20:59,600and so be making its plane engines. It's still going to get out of113601:20:59,600 --> 01:21:01,760this the end of the day.As government contracts that keeps getting new ones.113701:21:02,039 --> 01:21:04,159You don't think this is gonna goout of business. It's just got113801:21:04,159 --> 01:21:06,119to get through it like Bowing did. And now look at Bowen it's over113901:21:06,159 --> 01:21:13,039two hundred again. Yeah, westill have a war. An interesting the114001:21:13,079 --> 01:21:17,880price earnings ratio on Raytheon is abouttwo thirds of the overall market, so114101:21:17,960 --> 01:21:23,159I mean it is cheap in termsof the overall market. Another stock that114201:21:23,199 --> 01:21:27,319took an absolute hit this week wasNetflix, down over ten percent on the114301:21:27,359 --> 01:21:32,119week, seemingly nothing really was thereason. You didn't see that one coming?114401:21:32,239 --> 01:21:38,439Hah see, Yeah that was prettybad. But I mean Netflix,114501:21:38,520 --> 01:21:40,960why was it down? I didn'tsee anything. I don't know if you114601:21:41,000 --> 01:21:44,560saw anything fallow Netflix, Yeah,I mean I was trying to find something114701:21:45,600 --> 01:21:48,239really nothing that I could see,but ten percents of real big drop there114801:21:49,279 --> 01:21:54,680for Netflix, and so if Imaybe three or four or five percent more114901:21:55,079 --> 01:21:59,239could be a little interesting value playthere. We had said on the show115001:21:59,319 --> 01:22:05,640here that we h Johnson and Johnsongave shareholders an opportunity to buy shares of115101:22:05,720 --> 01:22:13,479kin View, their spinoff, andwe suggested avoiding that spinoff and staying with115201:22:13,600 --> 01:22:16,199Johnson and Johnson. And it's becauseother spinoffs that have taken place within the115301:22:16,239 --> 01:22:20,239last six to nine months have notdone well. And that was kind of115401:22:20,279 --> 01:22:25,039the only reason. They big catalystwith that was that the spinoff company,115501:22:25,600 --> 01:22:29,000So Johnson Johnson was going to takethat. I think it was the TALC115601:22:30,159 --> 01:22:33,079the talcombosis, Right, they're gonnatake that from Canada and US. They'll115701:22:33,079 --> 01:22:38,560deal with those two. They're leavingthe spinoff company with every other issue any115801:22:38,600 --> 01:22:41,399other country. Who knows what's actuallygoing on with all that, you don't115901:22:41,399 --> 01:22:44,920know. And the stock droft fifteenpercent. The shock droft fifteen percent since116001:22:44,960 --> 01:22:46,439they did that. So, youknow, it's nice to be right once116101:22:46,439 --> 01:22:49,439in a while. We were.We got this one. But it did116201:22:49,479 --> 01:22:54,640take higher on Monday after Deutsche Bankraised the stock too, by saying that116301:22:54,680 --> 01:22:58,119the selling has been overdone. Theythink the selling has been overdone and it's116401:22:58,159 --> 01:23:01,279an opportunity, you know, wehad to. There's two government lawsuits against116501:23:01,319 --> 01:23:06,600antitrust government lawsuits against Google, andthe first one started last week on Monday.116601:23:08,119 --> 01:23:12,399Google showed no reaction. I don'tknow why I would, but uh,116701:23:12,439 --> 01:23:15,520there was apparently nothing or shaking.I don't know how long it goes116801:23:15,520 --> 01:23:17,680on. Could go on for amonth, but if you had a reaction,116901:23:17,720 --> 01:23:21,680it's probably offset by the fact thatYouTube TVs had its first weekend of117001:23:21,800 --> 01:23:26,880direct TV I sorry, direct TV, NFL tickets streaming. Yeah, and117101:23:26,920 --> 01:23:30,119so that well too. Yeah.No issues, Yeah, like no issue117201:23:30,119 --> 01:23:35,960Amazon prim at issues last year seamlessgreat going back to Netflix, though.117301:23:36,079 --> 01:23:40,279A reason it went down last weekwas because the CFO came out and said,117401:23:40,319 --> 01:23:44,279this Hollywood strike is starting to hittheir business and if it doesn't see117501:23:44,279 --> 01:23:46,039any end, that's why investors arelike, okay, we're out. Yeah,117601:23:46,079 --> 01:23:49,680And me and Dean we're talking aboutthis watching Netflix. We're thinking they117701:23:49,760 --> 01:23:54,840got to have a lot of showskind of in their inventory that they're at117801:23:54,840 --> 01:23:59,760this point kind of slowly releasing andnot releasing its new things. Suits right117901:24:00,239 --> 01:24:01,960going on there and most views.Ever, I was talking about this,118001:24:02,439 --> 01:24:06,720you have a lot of more foreignshows being put out. I guarantee this118101:24:06,800 --> 01:24:12,640strike isn't happening, and you knowEurope, it's probably just an American actor118201:24:12,760 --> 01:24:16,159strike, so you can still bedeveloping shows and movies in different countries as118301:24:16,239 --> 01:24:21,880Netflix happened. But at least itsounds right right. My wife and I118401:24:21,920 --> 01:24:25,319were talking about that a couple ofnights ago, and I said, there's118501:24:25,520 --> 01:24:28,279so much stuff that we haven't seenthat we want to see. We can118601:24:28,319 --> 01:24:31,359go for years right without any newprogramming. It's kind of surprising as the118701:24:31,439 --> 01:24:34,520Netflix CFO kind of came out andsaid that, yeah, you think there's118801:24:34,520 --> 01:24:38,680so many other avenues Netflix can gobefore the movie industry or not so much.118901:24:38,680 --> 01:24:43,920It's a series the movie Department.All right, we'll be back.119001:24:43,920 --> 01:24:46,199We have one more segment. Weappreciate your listening. This is The Money119101:24:46,199 --> 01:24:56,479Mounted Show with Dan Greenberg. Thankyou, Welcome back everybody. It's the119201:24:56,520 --> 01:24:59,439Money By the Show. We gotabout ten minutes left. We appreciate you119301:24:59,560 --> 01:25:00,960listening. You missed some of theshow, you can go back. Just119401:25:01,000 --> 01:25:03,880go to a website, go toYouTube, pick a click on the show,119501:25:04,279 --> 01:25:08,000go to what part you feel youmissed, and listen. If you're119601:25:08,039 --> 01:25:10,840out of town, out of thecountry, anyway, you are, you119701:25:10,840 --> 01:25:15,119can hear it still. I heartradio anywhere in the world anyway. YEP119801:25:15,920 --> 01:25:19,840got our weekly market updates on Facebookevery Friday as well, new Saturday shows119901:25:19,920 --> 01:25:26,640coming on. I do them.Yeah yeah, I'm in New York.120001:25:27,680 --> 01:25:30,399Yeah yeah, you give make aquick trip every afternoon from Tucsons in New120101:25:30,439 --> 01:25:34,960York. It's you ever hear aboutthose? You get the MAILI miles?120201:25:34,960 --> 01:25:39,880Do you ever hear about the Bladehelicopters? That's what I take fly New120301:25:39,920 --> 01:25:45,199York. You are you are superhuman. You see where Smuckers bought the hostess120401:25:45,399 --> 01:25:49,479YEP combination dollars. That's kind ofa delicious combination. We'll see that we'll120501:25:49,479 --> 01:25:53,680see the jelly now inside the twinks. I'm thinking the jelly is gonna go120601:25:53,680 --> 01:25:59,199instead of the frosting, Right,frosting you put it in there with the120701:25:59,239 --> 01:26:01,000whip cream, the whatever. Thatqueen feeling is, well, they will120801:26:01,039 --> 01:26:04,199but right now with the right Yeah, but it's going to be nonperishable at120901:26:04,199 --> 01:26:09,039that point. Can't listen last throughapocalypse like I could. No, they'll121001:26:09,079 --> 01:26:11,239figure it out with the Yeah.I don't know, but that tweaky has121101:26:11,279 --> 01:26:14,159gotten way worse. It used tobe so good. I can't do it121201:26:14,159 --> 01:26:19,920because you get older, I thinkso growing up there, what's the change?121301:26:20,279 --> 01:26:24,319I thought they were so big?Yeah, it's like maybe a bite121401:26:24,399 --> 01:26:29,159in the half. Yeah, that'snot an interesting report on alcohol consumption,121501:26:29,279 --> 01:26:33,319Dean. Since the end of prohibition, adult alcohol consumption in the US has121601:26:33,359 --> 01:26:38,479been really steady, around sixty threepercent of the population, about two thirds,121701:26:38,680 --> 01:26:42,119right, two thirds of people drink, even though globally the number is121801:26:42,199 --> 01:26:45,279only one third. Some of that'sprobably availability. I don't know, yeh,121901:26:45,439 --> 01:26:50,640check Ireland. Yeah, I don'tavailability makes sense. Does wine consider?122001:26:51,199 --> 01:26:55,479Is that consider? Yep? Alcohol, you're right, I think on122101:26:55,520 --> 01:26:57,880the availability of it, I thinkthat's it. I mean I don't know122201:26:57,880 --> 01:26:59,640how many, I mean, howmany breweries in Africa? Do you know122301:26:59,840 --> 01:27:02,399how many? How many people areare drinking in rural Africa, you know122401:27:02,439 --> 01:27:08,279where the poverty is. Just there'smany wins, and I'm thinking they're Interestingly,122501:27:08,319 --> 01:27:13,920the fastest growing beverage segment in theUnited States is non alcoholic beer and122601:27:13,960 --> 01:27:18,359wine extremely popular. You have tolove the tastes to be able to do122701:27:18,399 --> 01:27:23,560that, because yeah, yeah,there's Nordy, but that's kind of interesting.122801:27:24,039 --> 01:27:27,159It has had no impact on thenumber of people that are drinking.122901:27:27,520 --> 01:27:30,720UH stayed steady around sixty three percent. It's dipped down one time to fifty123001:27:30,800 --> 01:27:34,560nine and then up to sixty six, but sixty three has been pretty steady.123101:27:34,560 --> 01:27:40,199And I would think with the legalizationof marijuana in most states, right,123201:27:40,600 --> 01:27:45,159and the and the non alcoholic beerand wine, that alcohol consumption would123301:27:45,159 --> 01:27:48,680have really dropped off. But ConstellationBrands is one of the largest liquor suppliers123401:27:48,680 --> 01:27:53,039in the world, just hit anew all time high about two weeks ago.123501:27:53,119 --> 01:27:55,920Well, thanks, I was gonnasay two weeks ago. It's certainly123601:27:56,000 --> 01:28:01,079not certainly not thanks to UH cannabisright, their canopy growth position. I123701:28:01,079 --> 01:28:03,319mean, people like when they goto a public setting, they're not gonna123801:28:03,319 --> 01:28:05,520be smoking weed. They're gonna behaving a drink. But you know,123901:28:05,600 --> 01:28:10,079canopy growth has got I just thoughtit a dollar and forty a share from124001:28:10,079 --> 01:28:14,880forty five cents. Yeah, it'stripled in the last ten days. Bill124101:28:14,920 --> 01:28:19,319Gates bought a whole bunch of usShawler's worth of Anheuser Bushy bought his foundation.124201:28:19,840 --> 01:28:21,840Is that right? Yeah? Ishe gonna drink at all on one124301:28:21,840 --> 01:28:25,840plane? But is it under andis a bush though I thought it was124401:28:26,039 --> 01:28:29,159they got bought. No, andhazer Bush owns bud light. Yeah,124501:28:29,199 --> 01:28:33,880I understand that. No, they'restill but ok yeah. Are you thinking124601:28:33,920 --> 01:28:38,920that one that bottom like overseas?Yeah? Yeah, yeah yeah, I124701:28:38,920 --> 01:28:44,319don't think it just fought the overseaspart of yeah yeah yeah, okay.124801:28:44,560 --> 01:28:46,159It was a French company and Iremember it, but I can't come up124901:28:46,199 --> 01:28:49,359with the name either. But Ithought that was interesting that alcohol contuption hasn't125001:28:49,359 --> 01:28:54,199been impacted at all. Despite thesetrends. We did see the airline et125101:28:54,319 --> 01:28:59,399F drop twenty percent in the lastsixty days lower on Wednesday after American Airlines125201:28:59,439 --> 01:29:02,680then Spirit both cut their outlooking andfor obvious reasons storry oil prices well before125301:29:02,680 --> 01:29:05,680you. I mean, the reasoncannapy growth is up so much is because125401:29:05,720 --> 01:29:12,399of that report that came out twoweeks ago with the possibility of the de125501:29:12,680 --> 01:29:17,760listing from Schedule one on cannabis toSchedule three, which would allow cannabis companies125601:29:17,800 --> 01:29:21,720to start using deductions of business deductions. Right now, they can't use any125701:29:21,720 --> 01:29:25,520business deductions as tax write offs.Correct, there, they're not. They're125801:29:25,560 --> 01:29:28,520under how you're gonna be possible?How are you gonna be profitable if you125901:29:28,520 --> 01:29:32,159can't? But we'll do business expenses, remember, I know, but how126001:29:32,199 --> 01:29:36,720are you gonna be like really,probably you can't really income. They're not126101:29:36,760 --> 01:29:42,119illegal companies doing everything they have todo. They have to do. They126201:29:42,119 --> 01:29:45,239have to do gap still, butthey're doing gap without writing off business expenses.126301:29:45,319 --> 01:29:47,560It's a pretty losing but as wetalk, as we talked last last126401:29:47,680 --> 01:29:51,159a couple of weeks ago, butwhat Biden ask the UH the was it126501:29:51,279 --> 01:29:57,119the FDA to look into this ayear ago? They finally have gotten around126601:29:57,199 --> 01:30:01,840a year later to asking the Udepart why it's the HHA, which is126701:30:01,840 --> 01:30:05,520like the health the health services.Yeah, but they're the ones that made126801:30:05,560 --> 01:30:10,880the recommendation, and every time they'vemade the recommendation, FDA normally falls suit126901:30:11,439 --> 01:30:14,399some time afterwards in a relative period. That would be a big deal.127001:30:14,439 --> 01:30:16,560Not and I don't think it hasany impact on the Canadian stocks at all127101:30:16,600 --> 01:30:20,600though. And cannabis is a cannapygrowth. There's a Canadian company, but127201:30:20,640 --> 01:30:25,680I they don't have any American holdings. I don't. I'm pretty sure they127301:30:25,720 --> 01:30:28,760probably do have some exposure and Ithink they have AMP. The other big127401:30:28,800 --> 01:30:31,520thing is business loans. Right,they can't do any banking right now.127501:30:31,880 --> 01:30:35,359If you're going to a dispensary,they can do banking, but nonfederal,127601:30:35,840 --> 01:30:39,800nonfederal it has big credit unions.So I mean, if you're looking at127701:30:39,880 --> 01:30:42,199going into a dispensary, you can'tuse your credit card, you can't use127801:30:42,199 --> 01:30:45,199your debit card, you have touse a ATM or you know cash.127901:30:45,840 --> 01:30:49,079So now that they can do banks, that also helps the consumer, but128001:30:49,159 --> 01:30:55,079also helps the business on loans right, being able to expand. There's a128101:30:55,119 --> 01:30:57,680lot of things. Well, therecertainly is legs to this because I remember128201:30:57,680 --> 01:31:01,319when I first started off the somethe marijuana stocks had pop twenty percent or128301:31:01,359 --> 01:31:05,399so, and they just have keptgoing, I don't know what MSOs the128401:31:05,720 --> 01:31:11,479ms E that's probably the most traded. Yeah, it is up to seven.128501:31:11,560 --> 01:31:13,359And I had somebody asked me aboutI go, I don't know.128601:31:13,479 --> 01:31:15,960I don't think it's got legs,but I think I don't. I didn't128701:31:15,960 --> 01:31:18,560have looked at it since for afew days, but I've been it's above128801:31:18,600 --> 01:31:21,840ten now. MJ is another one, and that nine just about doubled back128901:31:21,920 --> 01:31:25,840and tells me nine. So it'sup to nine now. Huh wow.129001:31:26,640 --> 01:31:30,399And it was about five when thiswhole thing started. But canopy growth has129101:31:30,439 --> 01:31:33,840been the way the play hat istripled. Canopy growth. I guess if129201:31:34,039 --> 01:31:38,119if it does this another hundred times, the people that bought it'll be even129301:31:38,359 --> 01:31:41,199We'll just think about the oil stocks, how much they've rallied. They even129401:31:41,319 --> 01:31:44,479just left few months beyond which youhave expected. Yeah, yeah, yeah,129501:31:44,560 --> 01:31:46,439I have some x l E onand it got to ninetye. Oh129601:31:46,520 --> 01:31:49,880that's a good trade. Do notannounced ninety three. XLU had a good129701:31:49,920 --> 01:31:55,119week. Utilities, they dropped alittle bit oil itself. UCO, one129801:31:55,159 --> 01:31:59,159of the worst performing sectors in theSMPU, has been utilities over the past129901:31:59,239 --> 01:32:02,199year. Understand and to believe becauseutilities are impacted by rioting interest rates.130001:32:02,439 --> 01:32:08,640They have a large most of themhave large debt, and interest rates are130101:32:08,760 --> 01:32:13,560important if you go into recession.Do you expect utilities to keep their value130201:32:13,760 --> 01:32:17,560lose? Yeah, fulfillings would rallyin a recession because interest rates would come130301:32:17,600 --> 01:32:21,520down, and that's good for utilities. I don't think they're gonna lower interest130401:32:21,600 --> 01:32:25,199rates as quick as people think they'regoing to do it. I don't think130501:32:25,279 --> 01:32:28,720they will, but I think theoverall marker will you know, the feed130601:32:28,840 --> 01:32:30,960is always the tail of the dog. They're always the last react. I130701:32:31,039 --> 01:32:33,640just don't think they want to lowerrates too quickly because they don't want the130801:32:33,720 --> 01:32:41,279inflationary problem. Right, But they'veraised rates a quarter or two different times,130901:32:41,319 --> 01:32:44,640and the ten year treasuries where itwas before they started debt but plus131001:32:44,720 --> 01:32:47,359teen. Also, if the marketjust prices in lower rates, even if131101:32:47,359 --> 01:32:51,720the feeds saying we're not going toit doesn't matter right right, we see131201:32:51,720 --> 01:32:55,520it just got a reminder we're seasonallyweek time of the year. I know131301:32:55,640 --> 01:33:00,319it's a difficult to set on yourhands when you see the market allen,131401:33:00,399 --> 01:33:01,680but I think it's a good timeto be called it was strange. We131501:33:01,840 --> 01:33:05,920broke out dave of resistance long termresistance and broke down day and then the131601:33:06,039 --> 01:33:10,760next day on Friday, we brokeback down onto it and went to the131701:33:10,840 --> 01:33:15,479lower part of UH support. Youknow, now now it's looking ugly one131801:33:15,640 --> 01:33:17,640Friday. On Thursday it looked great, and on Friday it looked ugly.131901:33:18,000 --> 01:33:21,199It has, however, stayed theS and P stayed between forty four hundred132001:33:21,199 --> 01:33:24,680and forty six hundred this whole time. It's weird that we haven't seen any132101:33:24,720 --> 01:33:29,000major trends breakout when usually Septembers whenpeople come back into the markets and start132201:33:29,039 --> 01:33:31,039placing their trades. Right. Ithink Dean's were more of a technofical guy132301:33:31,079 --> 01:33:33,680than then. But in UH,I think we saw a breakdown when it132401:33:33,720 --> 01:33:36,560got down to what forty three fifty, it was breaking down, and then132501:33:36,600 --> 01:33:41,560it all day came up and brokeback out. Yeah, you know,132601:33:41,640 --> 01:33:44,920I think we can go back andwe touched at forty three fifty level and132701:33:45,039 --> 01:33:48,560show a period of time and whenI say that, I'm talking about forty132801:33:48,640 --> 01:33:53,800six weeks probably. Yeah. Yeah. And the problem we have right now132901:33:53,840 --> 01:33:56,560and not the problem. The goodthing we have window dressing coming up.133001:33:56,680 --> 01:34:00,880You know. Window dressing is whenthe mutual fire and money managers want to133101:34:00,960 --> 01:34:06,159dress up their portfolio, so theinstitutions and everybody that's they're investing force see133201:34:06,239 --> 01:34:11,520that they have quote the right stocks, the right allocation to write everything this133301:34:11,720 --> 01:34:14,880the report comes out after September thirtieth, yes, and they usually want to133401:34:14,920 --> 01:34:16,520be on the buying frame. Theother side of it is, we've been133501:34:16,560 --> 01:34:19,600in this business a long time.Everyone wants to try to hold it up133601:34:19,600 --> 01:34:23,039at the quarters because that's when theyget paid. And we've seen that last133701:34:23,079 --> 01:34:29,199week sometimes just collapse on us andthen we've don't forget we were not that133801:34:29,319 --> 01:34:31,760far from tax loss selling, whichmeans all the stocks that have had a133901:34:31,840 --> 01:34:35,640bad year, including Raytheon, aregoing to have some additional pressure on them134001:34:36,000 --> 01:34:41,039as people sell to get a taxlost offs at gains they've taken in other134101:34:41,079 --> 01:34:45,920places and even looking to do whatyou do it probably before December so that134201:34:45,000 --> 01:34:47,439way you have the time to buyit back before the end of the year.134301:34:47,640 --> 01:34:51,319Yeah, everybody talks about December beingtax loss selling, but my experiences134401:34:51,359 --> 01:34:58,159almost always you need before Thanksgiving.You have to wait what thirty yeah,134501:34:58,239 --> 01:35:04,359to buy it back without the taxloss being eliminated December. Yeah, but134601:35:04,520 --> 01:35:11,199December is typically back in January yearand you may not want to buy it134701:35:11,239 --> 01:35:14,000back at all. Yeah, youmay sell AT and T and by Verizon134801:35:14,239 --> 01:35:16,279and never think about buying AT andT back again, right, and then134901:35:16,319 --> 01:35:19,119you can do that at the sametime. Yeah, no, no,135001:35:19,560 --> 01:35:24,399no requirement on that. So,but those are things to be looking out135101:35:24,439 --> 01:35:26,439for. Dean's right, it wouldcome to the end of the quarter.135201:35:26,520 --> 01:35:30,119There's a lot of window dressing goingon, a little bit more volatility over135301:35:30,159 --> 01:35:31,920the next two weeks. Maybe thenwe've been seeing. I just don't see135401:35:31,920 --> 01:35:34,800how the evaluations stay up here whereyou get the new money to keep buying135501:35:34,880 --> 01:35:39,159in. And that's why I thinkwhen we do break out, there's no135601:35:39,239 --> 01:35:42,720one in there that wants to bethe next guy up now. I think135701:35:42,760 --> 01:35:45,760we need to be five to tenpercent lower than we are now to realize135801:35:45,800 --> 01:35:48,159feel more comfortable, feel like weget through this period. But I do135901:35:48,319 --> 01:35:51,560think once we get through this period, I don't think it goes to new136001:35:51,640 --> 01:35:55,640law like way down here. Ithink we rally to the end of the136101:35:55,720 --> 01:36:00,760year, and I think the problemstarts second third quarter next year. Okay,136201:36:00,279 --> 01:36:02,880all right, it's another week,another show, another two hours of136301:36:03,000 --> 01:36:06,399us talking to you about what's goingon. Remember we got shows on Saturday,136401:36:06,439 --> 01:36:09,840we got TV shows, we gota bunch of stuff. You miss136501:36:09,880 --> 01:36:12,119it all, No big deal.Just go to a website and check it136601:36:12,199 --> 01:36:15,520out. You need a financial plan, we'll do it for your complimentary All136701:36:15,560 --> 01:36:17,960you got to do is come tosee us, send an appointment and we'll136801:36:18,000 --> 01:36:20,760send you the info of what weneed. We'll be back next week where136901:36:20,840 --> 01:36:26,119your money matters. If you're listening, I'm on the Garrett Show tomorrow morning137001:36:26,840 --> 01:36:30,439from six to ten, you'll getmore of me. And then we want137101:36:30,439 --> 01:36:32,560you to be happy, we wantyou to be healthy, and we all137201:36:32,640 --> 01:36:39,279strive to be profitable. Say it'sall, Ana,