The Latest Jobs Report Exceeded Expectations – More Rate Hikes To Come?

100:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,719It is that time again. IfDave Sherwood, I'm here with Todd Gleck.200:00:07,200 --> 00:00:13,279Mister Greenberg is in Europe finishing uphis vacation. Mister Greenberg Junior is300:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,079in Kentucky meeting with some NFL players. We have a number of clients who400:00:18,079 --> 00:00:22,359are NFL players, and we liketo talk to them from time to time500:00:22,359 --> 00:00:26,879and make sure everything's good with themand uh and meet meet their friends who600:00:26,879 --> 00:00:30,679are also NFL players, which iswhich is good because the NFL players tend700:00:30,719 --> 00:00:35,520to have thin, pretty good careers. Yeah. Yeah, it's July ninth.800:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,719It's hotter than hades out there.Oh, that's a good reference.900:00:38,719 --> 00:00:42,840We're impatiently waiting the monsoons. Youknow. It's interesting. I've lived here1000:00:42,920 --> 00:00:47,920for fifty one years, Todd,fifty one years. That's that's more than1100:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,880And this is not for those ofyou that are new to Tucson, and1200:00:50,920 --> 00:00:56,039there's a lot of people that arenew to Tucson since twenty twenty. This1300:00:56,119 --> 00:01:00,640is not normal. This is nota normal Tucson summer. Okay, we're1400:01:00,719 --> 00:01:04,439running eight to ten degrees above normal. It's typically one hundred to one hundred1500:01:04,439 --> 00:01:07,920and two would be a typical summer. Day, not one o eight to1600:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,359one, ten to one twelve.We got to one eleven last week.1700:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,400I think it's your fault. I'mnot sure whose fault it is, but1800:01:15,439 --> 00:01:18,120I want to I want to seehim. I want to see him now.1900:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,680You know, a few years agosomeone in the weather world decided that2000:01:21,879 --> 00:01:26,599June fifteenth was the beginning of themonsoon, which is ridiculous. June fifteenth2100:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,959is the middle of the hot,hottest part of the year, and there's2200:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,560nothing going on there in the wayof monsoons. But of monsoon, I2300:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,799guess officially now is June fifteenth,of September fifteenth, and it's really July2400:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,120fourth until about the end of August. And July fourth is has come and2500:01:42,159 --> 00:01:47,280gone, and we're ready bringing on. I don't see any storm, no,2600:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,120no, and we get but we'rehaving a little cooling spell this weekend,2700:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,200down to like one oh six.You know, Oh, it's not2800:01:52,799 --> 00:01:56,120it's ridiculous. I mean a coolingspell used to be ninety eight, ninety2900:01:56,159 --> 00:01:57,879nine. But it's anyway, enoughabout the weather. It was a very3000:01:57,879 --> 00:02:01,040strange week in the market in thatwe had a half a day of trading3100:02:01,120 --> 00:02:06,560on Monday, then on Tuesday wehad a holiday, and then on Wednesday3200:02:06,640 --> 00:02:10,159we got to do Monday again,and then Thursday and Friday. I was3300:02:10,319 --> 00:02:14,800I was talking to a client,uh Friday morning, and I said,3400:02:14,840 --> 00:02:15,800well, why don't you give mea call tomorrow? And he goes tomorrow3500:02:15,840 --> 00:02:21,000Saturday. I said, no,tomorrow's Friday. Here, you don't even3600:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,919know. We all messed up.It was a very strange weekend. It3700:02:23,960 --> 00:02:28,039was. It was an unusual weekin the market. On a half a3800:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,560day of trading before a holiday,you don't get much in the way of3900:02:30,599 --> 00:02:35,039action. I think the SMP wasup three or four points on Monday.4000:02:35,719 --> 00:02:38,639Tuesday closed. Wednesday we come in. The FED releases their beige book,4100:02:38,680 --> 00:02:44,439which is essentially the minutes from theirlast meeting, and what a shock.4200:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,439It said that they're going to raiserates one or two more times, something4300:02:47,520 --> 00:02:52,599Powell's been saying for a month,something that they have made no secret of.4400:02:53,199 --> 00:02:55,120U and the market sold off fiveHunter plays. Did I'll sold off4500:02:55,120 --> 00:02:59,759five Hunter plots? Oh no,they're gonna like, did it finally hit4600:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,080you that the fat is not doneyet? We've been saying that on the4700:03:02,159 --> 00:03:07,960show for a week. The fatis not done yet. Hopefully they don't4800:03:07,080 --> 00:03:13,919go until they break something, whichthey can do. But we that Spike4900:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,159and Raith on Wednesday shot mortgage ratesup to around seven and a half percent.5000:03:17,680 --> 00:03:23,280That's getting to be pretty close toa sixteen year high on mortgage rates,5100:03:23,319 --> 00:03:27,439if you can believe that, andthat that was not good. And5200:03:27,479 --> 00:03:32,479then of course we had On Thursday, the ADP came out with their private5300:03:32,599 --> 00:03:39,120sector jobs report and it showed thata massive number of jobs were created in5400:03:39,199 --> 00:03:44,199June, twice as many as expected. And then the next day the government5500:03:44,240 --> 00:03:49,280gives the government Jobs report and itshows that fewer than expected jobs were created5600:03:49,319 --> 00:03:53,479in June. Half as many isnot even half as many as ADP had5700:03:53,599 --> 00:03:58,840estimated with their survey. So somebody'sgot to got to adjust the numbers and5800:04:00,439 --> 00:04:05,319work on their formulas for gathering databecause they got somebody's wrong. Certainly,5900:04:05,719 --> 00:04:09,199before we get too much further,we'll do our disclaiming real quick. This6000:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,319show is sponsored by the Greenberg FinancialGroup. You can listen on seven ninety6100:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,000k ST or iHeartRadio. The showdiscusses different investment products and strategies, and6200:04:16,079 --> 00:04:19,639every product in strategy has some typeof inherent risk. We strongly, strongly6300:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,680encourage our listeners to properly understand theserisks to determine whether to buy, sell6400:04:24,839 --> 00:04:26,959or hold. The show's been onthe air for over thirty years. The6500:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,040Greenberg Financial Group is registered with theSEC and is a member a member of6600:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,959fin and SIPIC. You can visitour website Greenberg Financial dot com for more6700:04:34,000 --> 00:04:38,160information Perfect Perfect. You want togive a summary of what the market did6800:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,000last week, I will the Dowwas down two percent on the week.6900:04:41,120 --> 00:04:45,040S ANDP was down one point one, NASDAG down point nine, that equal7000:04:45,079 --> 00:04:48,720weighted was down point seven, Russelltwo thousand, the small cap stocks down7100:04:48,800 --> 00:04:54,000one point two percent, right,So the Dow getting them worst of it7200:04:54,079 --> 00:04:59,560again, which is interesting because whenyou're in a market where the momentum is7300:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,879strong, people don't want value,they want growth. They want the hottest7400:05:04,839 --> 00:05:10,000toy on the hottest toy in thestore. And as of the end of7500:05:10,120 --> 00:05:16,800June, I follow five dividend payingETFs. High dividend paying ETF These guys7600:05:16,879 --> 00:05:20,839actually last year, in a twentypercent down year, we're all up a7700:05:20,879 --> 00:05:26,920little bit because that's where people wereseeking safety last year was in the dividend7800:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,959pairs. Interestingly, through the endof June, they're down around four percent7900:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,240for the year. That's where theSMP five hundred fourteen point six in the8000:05:34,319 --> 00:05:41,600NASTAC up thirty. So I don'tremember a year where it was more important8100:05:42,759 --> 00:05:46,720as to which sector you're in.The performance in your account can be ten8200:05:46,800 --> 00:05:51,600to fifteen percent difference in a sixmonth period depending upon how you're allocated.8300:05:53,199 --> 00:05:57,839Right. The sector allocation is hugeright now, and the correlation of sectors8400:05:57,839 --> 00:06:04,160to the s ANDP is getting it. When you have a technology sector that's8500:06:04,199 --> 00:06:09,720so much higher than the rest ofthe sectors in the SMP, the correlation8600:06:10,040 --> 00:06:14,839gets thrown off. And so reallywhat's happening right now is all the stocks8700:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,120right we talked about the Magnificent sevenare really just taking the SMP up with8800:06:18,199 --> 00:06:24,199them. And that's why you havesuch a divergence in different allocation models right8900:06:24,639 --> 00:06:29,240right. And because the SMP fivehundred is overweighted to these stocks, the9000:06:29,399 --> 00:06:32,160SP five performance is strong, andof course that gets people to say,9100:06:32,160 --> 00:06:33,879man, I do want to missout on this, so I got to9200:06:33,920 --> 00:06:38,079jump in. So they started drivingup other things and what can we look9300:06:38,079 --> 00:06:42,319at that hasn't performed yet? Maybemaybe there's maybe that and it's really an9400:06:42,360 --> 00:06:47,480interesting time. We do have thesector summary for the first half of the9500:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,519year. Tied you on to giveme a review of that sector summary.9600:06:50,639 --> 00:06:57,240Yeah, so on June, technologywas up five percent, Communications was up9700:06:57,319 --> 00:07:00,600three point three Consumer discretionary led theway. In June they were up ten9800:07:00,639 --> 00:07:04,439point nine percent. All sectors inthe SMP were up, but year to9900:07:04,560 --> 00:07:09,759date a couple are still down.Utilities lead the way, down five point10000:07:09,759 --> 00:07:14,800seven percent. Energy is second lowest. But again the top gainers technology and10100:07:14,839 --> 00:07:18,480communications. And we all know thatcommunication sector isn't really communication, it's more10200:07:18,519 --> 00:07:23,560technology. It's really just another technologyupf so it makes sense that it's right10300:07:23,639 --> 00:07:27,839underneath and consumer discretionary right underneath that. With the thirty two percent gain on10400:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,759the year, isn't it interesting thatof the eleven SMP five hundred sectors,10500:07:30,759 --> 00:07:35,040the number one performer in twenty twentythree was dead last in twenty twenty two.10600:07:35,279 --> 00:07:40,879Yep, the number the worst performerin twenty twenty three was the leader10700:07:41,519 --> 00:07:45,959in twenty twenty two. It's justamazing how it flows like that. And10800:07:46,079 --> 00:07:48,000we know that as money managers,you try to buy things that are out10900:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,399of favor. One of the problemswith that is you buying things that are11000:07:51,399 --> 00:07:54,680out of favor. Right now,you might have a period of two,11100:07:54,759 --> 00:08:00,399three, four or five months onehundred performance right before the valuation it starts11200:08:00,439 --> 00:08:03,480to kick in, so be patient. It could catch a falling knife,11300:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,360right That's that's the whole thing andthe real interesting you know, obviously with11400:08:07,399 --> 00:08:11,839the contrarian trades performing well this year, now, if you're trying to look11500:08:11,879 --> 00:08:18,079for what could possibly be, I'mreally interested in the consumer staples sector of11600:08:18,160 --> 00:08:22,319the SMP because it has relatively underperformedwith the rest of the sectors in the11700:08:22,839 --> 00:08:28,199in the SMP. However, ifwe do go into a recession and we11800:08:28,240 --> 00:08:33,840see the drastic decrease in economics activity, it would consumer staples are the things11900:08:33,840 --> 00:08:39,039that we're all going to continue tobuy, right Those are your your toothpaste,12000:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,679the cereals, the brand names,things that are not going to go12100:08:41,759 --> 00:08:46,600anywhere. So if you're looking fora place that could be a place of12200:08:46,720 --> 00:08:50,279safety, you're not going to havethe high flyers like you are in technology,12300:08:50,519 --> 00:08:52,919but it could be a place thatin the future catches up to the12400:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,480rest of the SMP or doesn't godown as much as the SMP if it12500:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,799does start to fall, right,I guess that's a good idea. And12600:09:00,039 --> 00:09:03,399the interest rates rising from zero toabout five and a half percent, we12700:09:03,480 --> 00:09:09,000are actually now starting to nibble awayat long term bonds. Long term bonds12800:09:09,039 --> 00:09:13,279have just gotten slaughtered over the lasteighteen months. And when interest rates stop12900:09:13,440 --> 00:09:18,679rising and the economy slows, whichis what the Feds trying to achieve,13000:09:18,399 --> 00:09:22,000we ought to be able to geta nice little pop out of the long13100:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,159term bonds in terms of valuation.We also have the Dow stocks, and13200:09:26,200 --> 00:09:30,519again we follow the S and Pfive hundred, not so much the doll13300:09:30,639 --> 00:09:33,360because the Dow is only thirty stocks, but it does try to mimic the13400:09:33,399 --> 00:09:39,919economy and it sends some messages.Interestingly, Todd, halfway through the year,13500:09:39,399 --> 00:09:45,279of the thirty stocks in the DowJones Industrial average, sixteen of them13600:09:45,320 --> 00:09:50,039are higher and fourteen of them areactually down for the year. It's hard13700:09:50,159 --> 00:09:54,320hard to even imagine if that's thecase. But in June, the performance13800:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,799in June, Caterpillar the was theeight hundred pound guerrilla. In June it13900:09:58,799 --> 00:10:03,559was seventeen point seven percent. Itactually had been one of the worst performing14000:10:03,639 --> 00:10:09,559dallastocks this year after being one ofthe better performing dallastocks last year, and14100:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,399they rebounded seventeen point seven percent inJune. It was the only one with14200:10:13,559 --> 00:10:18,000double digit gains, although all ofthe dallastocks were up in June, with14300:10:18,080 --> 00:10:22,480the exception of United Healthcare. Andof course we know why United Healthcare is14400:10:22,519 --> 00:10:28,320down because everybody's hurting themselves playing pickaballin that that's just so funny and it's14500:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,879but it's so true. I meanI turned on ESPN the other night and14600:10:31,879 --> 00:10:35,039there's some kind of a pickaball championshipgoing on, right, and it's really14700:10:35,399 --> 00:10:39,960it's just taken off. And Iguess it's because anybody can do it,14800:10:39,559 --> 00:10:46,000right, And but it also itdoesn't take like it's not a huge endurance14900:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,759event, right right, Yeah,yeah, anybody can do at any age.15000:10:48,759 --> 00:10:50,240You can do it and you don'ttake It doesn't need a lot of15100:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,399expensive equipment, it doesn't take alot of time. I mean, you15200:10:54,399 --> 00:10:56,639can go play football for a halfan hour if you one or an hour.15300:10:56,639 --> 00:11:01,080I will say that this that thethe pick of all tournaments are playing15400:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,200pickleball on a way different level thanwhat I've ever seen. It plays.15500:11:03,240 --> 00:11:09,000Oh yeah, there's they're spinning theball and doing all the reflexes of those15600:11:09,039 --> 00:11:13,559people, and it's mostly younger people. The reflexes are just phenomenal. I15700:11:13,559 --> 00:11:18,480mean the professionals are going to beprobably younger, right yeah, absolutely absolutely.15800:11:18,000 --> 00:11:24,480The top performing Dove stock this yearSalesforce dot Com. Uh, it15900:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,919was actually one of the three stocksthat was down in June. It was16000:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,799only down eight tenths of a percent, but that's the top performer in the16100:11:30,879 --> 00:11:35,080Dow, which allowed Apple and Microsoftto almost catch up with them. They're16200:11:35,080 --> 00:11:39,120only ten percent behind Salesforce dot Com. At one point, Salesforce dot Com16300:11:39,159 --> 00:11:45,320was about thirty thirty five percent aheadof anything else. Um. Walgreens worst16400:11:45,399 --> 00:11:50,480performing Dove stock this year, worstperforming Dove stock in June. I think16500:11:50,519 --> 00:11:56,360we said last week the stock wasat something like a fifteen year low Walgreens.16600:11:56,399 --> 00:12:01,159And again a lot of reasons forthat, but the COVID pandemic having16700:12:01,279 --> 00:12:05,519kind of waned has really cut theirstore traffic. And Amazon is making some16800:12:05,600 --> 00:12:11,320inroads into their business, right yeah, so it'll be it's a Walgreens is16900:12:11,360 --> 00:12:16,039another on the job's report to government. Jobs Report came out on Friday and17000:12:16,080 --> 00:12:20,679it was interesting to see where thejobs, where the pickup was in the17100:12:20,759 --> 00:12:26,639jobs. The top sector for jobgrowth was healthcare. Yeah, and like17200:12:26,759 --> 00:12:31,480services, right, health probably thefickleball again, yeah, getting getting people17300:12:31,480 --> 00:12:35,440into fix all the fickleball players.Yeah, I mean I was, I'm17400:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,399thinking, like, there's that longterm care though. I'm sure it's going17500:12:37,480 --> 00:12:43,480to continue to increase in terms ofneeds. Absolutely, I mean yeah,17600:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,600with the baby boomers getting to eventuallyto that age of needing long term care17700:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,600assistance and we don't have enough peoplethere. No, they're just going to17800:12:50,639 --> 00:12:56,120continuously be one of the most hiringsectors in the economy. I agree.17900:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,720Number two, number two for jobadditions in June was one. You don't18000:12:58,720 --> 00:13:03,080want to see government. Yeah,you do not want to see more government18100:13:03,159 --> 00:13:05,080jobs. It was a big jumpfor government, It was a big jump.18200:13:05,120 --> 00:13:11,360It was number two behind healthcare.Interestingly, places that lost jobs,18300:13:11,919 --> 00:13:16,279the biggest job losses were in retail, which may have something to do with18400:13:16,320 --> 00:13:22,200the slowing economy and the stock marketsgoing to the moon and everything is fine18500:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,240and the world's a happy place,but that's not what's really happening out there18600:13:26,279 --> 00:13:28,960on the street. Yeah. It'sso funny because I mean, when you18700:13:28,960 --> 00:13:33,320look at inventories, that's one wayto look at whether economy is doing better18800:13:33,399 --> 00:13:37,200or worse. Right, If inventoriesare increasing, companies aren't selling what they18900:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,000thought they could sell at the samepace, correct, right, And so19000:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,879eventually if inventory gets too high,they have to sell the inventory for pennies19100:13:43,919 --> 00:13:48,879on the dollar. Right. Wesaw allow of that Walmart target who really19200:13:48,879 --> 00:13:52,279got overloaded in things that people didn'twant during the pandemic. And a report19300:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,600I saw last week which is reallyinteresting was about Tesla how they beat expectations19400:13:56,679 --> 00:14:03,600on deliveries, but their inventors areincreased because their production outpaced their deliveries.19500:14:03,879 --> 00:14:07,000We're starting to see that with alot of the electric car companies now,19600:14:07,080 --> 00:14:11,759where they're producing more cars than they'reselling, which isn't a problem because they're19700:14:11,759 --> 00:14:16,720always behind and lead times. Imean like your Mustang was what a year?19800:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,519Yeah, I've got I've got acouple of stories about that. We'll19900:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,559get into after. Yeah, we'rejust a station. The inventory picture,20000:14:22,639 --> 00:14:28,960if you have a production that continuouslyoutpaces your deliveries, eventually you have a20100:14:30,159 --> 00:14:33,639huge inventory that you have to sell. And if you have to sell that20200:14:33,679 --> 00:14:35,799at pennies on the dollar that thenshows up on the earning statement, which20300:14:35,799 --> 00:14:41,240then will lower stock prices. Thecompany that just simply cannot keep up with20400:14:41,320 --> 00:14:48,000demand is Forward, and what it'sdoing is is striving people to other car20500:14:48,039 --> 00:14:52,320dealers. They're just the Mustang Mache, which I think is a cool looking20600:14:52,399 --> 00:14:58,960electric car, was six to twelvemonths to get a Mustang Moche Tesla about20700:14:58,960 --> 00:15:05,600two weeks. Tesla controls that world. So if you're going to go down20800:15:05,639 --> 00:15:09,799the electric car route, why wouldyou wait six to twelve months for something20900:15:09,799 --> 00:15:15,799that is maybe as good as somethingyou could get in two weeks. It21000:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,720just seems like Ford needs to.In fact, I think it was Jim21100:15:18,759 --> 00:15:22,120Kramer said that they're just they're workingI think two shifts, and he said21200:15:22,159 --> 00:15:24,440they need a third. They needto add a third shift, he said,21300:15:24,440 --> 00:15:30,080because the demand is not going tobe there forever. The demand is21400:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,279going to eventually go elsewhere, andpeople are going to go elsewhere to find21500:15:33,279 --> 00:15:37,840the vehicles. The headline this weekwasn't was the job's reportant We've already talked21600:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,919about that. The market coming offthe best first half for the NASDAK in21700:15:41,960 --> 00:15:48,799forty years, the best first halffor the Semiconductor's todd Ever, July is21800:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,120historically the best month of the year. But you have to wonder, with21900:15:52,240 --> 00:15:56,679the economy slowing, interest rates rising, what's left? Right? You don't22000:15:56,679 --> 00:16:00,000see a lot of countalysts coming up. I mean, the only thing you22100:16:00,039 --> 00:16:04,200could think of is if somehow RussiaUkraine gets resolved, and that could send22200:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,519markets higher. But what else isthere to really keep markets going? Yeah?22300:16:08,559 --> 00:16:14,200I think that we went back sixnine months ago and we talked about22400:16:14,200 --> 00:16:18,039all of the positive things that couldhappen, and they've pretty much all happened.22500:16:18,159 --> 00:16:22,559Yeah, we're running out of positivesurprises. We are going to,22600:16:22,639 --> 00:16:26,759believe it or not, begin thesecond quarter earnings reports next week. Here22700:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,080we go again, you know weIt seems like you've just finished quarterly earnings22800:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,919reports and here they come again,because companies spread them out so far.22900:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,799But I think we get the bankslate next week. That'll be on the23000:16:37,519 --> 00:16:44,639calendar, of course of Wednesday,before the open. CPI got another one23100:16:44,679 --> 00:16:48,440coming. I think the interesting thingabout that jobs report today though, is23200:16:48,639 --> 00:16:52,360how much different, and you alludedto it, how much the divergence was23300:16:52,440 --> 00:16:56,639on the ADP which came out onThursday, and ADP if is a payroll23400:16:56,679 --> 00:17:00,720provider, and so they just usetheir data feed and published this report,23500:17:00,960 --> 00:17:06,400whereas the government, who knows howthey actually come up with their numbers.23600:17:06,400 --> 00:17:11,519And I'm sure it's legitimate, right, but the idea do not doubt the23700:17:11,599 --> 00:17:15,880government ever. You're listening, Sothe two being so divergent, you start23800:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,640to think, well, why right, And the only thing I was able23900:17:18,680 --> 00:17:25,200to find is something about their seasonallyadjusted factors and so whatever calculation that they're24000:17:25,240 --> 00:17:30,920putting into their their report ADP,it made them almost double the amount of24100:17:30,000 --> 00:17:36,240jobs created compared to the government report. It's just really surprising to see such24200:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,400a big divergence there, and youstart to think, well, which one24300:17:38,519 --> 00:17:42,039should I be looking at? Mostpeople do look at the government, true,24400:17:42,319 --> 00:17:48,160right, but because the ADP ismore of a newer the last fifteen24500:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,720years it's been around. Yeah,it's also frequently inaccurate. Yeah, that's24600:17:52,759 --> 00:17:56,839another problem with that report, andit just to reiterate. On Thursday,24700:17:56,920 --> 00:18:02,039ADP said four hundred and ninety seventhousand new jobs were created in June,24800:18:02,359 --> 00:18:06,359and on Friday the government said twohundred and nine thousand. That's a fairly24900:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,720see if you get a difference fivehundred thousand versus two hundred thousand, right,25000:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,960So somebody's got it wrong. AndI don't know how much health that25100:18:14,119 --> 00:18:19,279is. We saw the Federal Reserveis trying to slow the economy and they25200:18:19,279 --> 00:18:23,200will be successful. Hopefully they don'tgo so far that they break something,25300:18:23,880 --> 00:18:30,440but they've been known to do that. We didn't hear that manufacturing activity in25400:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,680the US declined for the seventh timein the last eight months and is now25500:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,759at a level that we have notseen since the middle of the pandemic.25600:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,519Yeah, it's not looking good forthe manufacturing, but the services continues to25700:18:41,519 --> 00:18:47,119stay pretty elevated. Yes, yep, you know the services be expectations and25800:18:48,519 --> 00:18:52,759you have any ideas why the servicesis keeping The only thing I can think25900:18:52,799 --> 00:18:56,480of is people are still traveling alot, a lot. I mean,26000:18:56,519 --> 00:19:00,640I know, I've twenty people thatare in Europe right now that I know,26100:19:00,400 --> 00:19:06,160um and and that's not going toaffect the US services sector obviously,26200:19:06,200 --> 00:19:10,680But if people are traveling to Europe, then they're certainly traveling domestically, right,26300:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,200So maybe people aren't buying those bigticket home items anymore, right,26400:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,720because they probably bought them all upin the pandemic, and now they want26500:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,400to spend that money on services thingslike travel, right right, someone said26600:19:21,519 --> 00:19:27,039said that they they've gone from thingsto experiences. People's people spending has has26700:19:27,079 --> 00:19:32,480moved from buying things to experiences.Looks like that's the case, and that's26800:19:32,519 --> 00:19:37,640that would be reflected in the servicesector. China just continues to slow down,26900:19:37,720 --> 00:19:42,240continues to struggle. The world's secondlargest economy, manufacturing services slowed in27000:19:42,359 --> 00:19:48,440June. Business competence hit an eightmonth low. Um the US is going27100:19:48,519 --> 00:19:52,079elsewhere. Many companies in the USare going elsewhere for their manufacturing, for27200:19:52,160 --> 00:19:57,640their products, and China is feelingit. If we want to have a27300:19:57,759 --> 00:20:03,359global war with them, we canwin that war. We just simply need27400:20:03,400 --> 00:20:08,680to move manufacturing into other places.Mexico would be a good choice and a27500:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,400buoy their economy so that half ofthe country doesn't want to live here,27600:20:12,039 --> 00:20:18,319or just put two of our aircraftcarriers on their coasts and that'll take care27700:20:18,359 --> 00:20:19,920of us. Just sit there,home, Just let him sit there.27800:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,519It is interesting because they talk aboutTaiwan a lot, and you know,27900:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,839and my apologies to historians, okay, because we have a limited amount of28000:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,519time, But for twenty years,the Chinese War fought for control of China.28100:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,359The two factions. In nineteen fortynine, the Communist People's Republic of28200:20:38,440 --> 00:20:44,119China, which is the current government, forced the losing Republic of China forces28300:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,640to flee to Taiwan. And theywent over to Taiwan to go good,28400:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,319good bye, good riddence. Youjust stay over there in the stupid island,28500:20:51,319 --> 00:20:53,960and we're gonna go here. Well, then guess what happens. They28600:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,799started making the island into a prettygood economic power. They start making money,28700:20:59,799 --> 00:21:03,279they start selling things. They said, so now the Chinese, now,28800:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,680the Chinese, who have never hadany interest in Taiwan, have never28900:21:06,759 --> 00:21:11,640had ownership interest of Taiwan. Itwas a place where the losing, the29000:21:11,759 --> 00:21:15,359loser of the war went in exile. Right, good, good riddance,29100:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,119right now, all of a sudden, wild, it's ours. It's always29200:21:18,119 --> 00:21:22,359been part of ours. We wantthat, you know, it's like little29300:21:22,440 --> 00:21:27,279kids there. So anyway, ChineseCommunist Party was for decades perfectly content to29400:21:27,400 --> 00:21:32,839let those losers do whatever they wantedon Taiwan. And we saw what democracy29500:21:32,880 --> 00:21:37,279can do for an economy. Iwas reading the article, I thought,29600:21:37,279 --> 00:21:40,680you know, China has no moreclaim to Taiwan than Russia does to the29700:21:40,799 --> 00:21:44,920Ukraine. I mean the Ukraine usedto be part of Russia, right,29800:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,400well, yeah, and so howdoes how does Russia say the Ukraine is29900:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,799ours, We're going to take itback, and how does China say Taiwan30000:21:51,920 --> 00:21:56,079is ours? Comparing the two,because I mean the Russia Ukraine was actually30100:21:56,119 --> 00:22:00,599part of Russia at one point,right where Taiwan never it was part of30200:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,519China, although I think probably whenwhen And again my apologies to historians,30300:22:03,519 --> 00:22:07,119because there's somebody setting out there screamingat their radio. Um, you idiots.30400:22:07,279 --> 00:22:11,160Um. The bottom line is thatthat Taiwan is where the losers of30500:22:11,200 --> 00:22:17,759the China War went in exile andthank thank goodness and goodbye, and now30600:22:17,799 --> 00:22:21,680that it's become a pretty good economicpower, all of a sudden, China30700:22:21,759 --> 00:22:26,279wants to lay claim to it andhave it back. Right. I think30800:22:26,319 --> 00:22:30,039at one point Japan was in controlof China and Taiwan. At one point,30900:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,799Japan was quite a power before WorldWar Two. But anyway, that's31000:22:34,839 --> 00:22:40,240that I digress. I was Iwas studying about Taiwan and trying to figure31100:22:40,240 --> 00:22:45,000out how China thought that that Taiwanis theirs and reading about it is hard31200:22:45,039 --> 00:22:49,720to understand. Well, we don'thave to worry because we have Jannet Yellen31300:22:49,799 --> 00:22:52,480over there helping us out. Well, that's it. That's it really makes31400:22:52,519 --> 00:22:55,799you feel good because you're gonna goover there and meet with them and talk31500:22:55,839 --> 00:23:00,200to them and settle everything down andAunt b Yeah for sure, and he's31600:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,119gonna make it all good. Rememberthat you probably never saw the Andy Griffith31700:23:03,119 --> 00:23:07,799Show because you're a young guy,that Landy Griffith show. That's that's Janet31800:23:07,839 --> 00:23:11,799Yellen and she's a brilliant woman.I don't take anything away from her.31900:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,559Not trying to make fun of her. I'm just she looks and acts like32000:23:14,599 --> 00:23:21,119Hampy. That's just from from allreports to regardless of your politics, she32100:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,400she's a brilliant woman. He maynot agree with what she says, what32200:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,480she does, but that doesn't takeaway from from her. We have a32300:23:29,519 --> 00:23:33,200couple of guests coming on today.We have Anthony Figarola from Heartland Insurance,32400:23:33,240 --> 00:23:37,039one of our favorite guests. Umevery time Anthony's on, we get calls32500:23:37,079 --> 00:23:42,279and I'm always happy to refer peopleto Anthony for and insurance companies right now,32600:23:42,279 --> 00:23:47,319are really taking advantage of people.I insurance companies don't want you to32700:23:47,319 --> 00:23:51,839call Anthony. No, they're verygood at They're way better at collecting premiums32800:23:51,839 --> 00:23:55,160than they are paying claims. Ohyeah, they're in the business of collecting32900:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,279premiums. Anyway, Anthony's going tobe here, and then John Sabellia,33000:23:57,319 --> 00:24:00,160our attorney, is going to beon. John has a segment for us,33100:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,319So we look we look forward tohearing from them, and we appreciate33200:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,039your listening to us. I mean, it's a one hundred and six hundred33300:24:07,039 --> 00:24:10,240and seven degrees out there. Whatelse you gonna do? Right? You33400:24:10,279 --> 00:24:12,880got to sit in the house anddo something. Yeah, there's no football33500:24:12,920 --> 00:24:17,319on, so you got to turnon the Money Matters radio show dog days33600:24:17,319 --> 00:24:19,039of summer, and we're glad youdid, and we look forward to talking33700:24:19,079 --> 00:24:22,480to with you after this break.We'll be back in a few seconds or33800:24:22,519 --> 00:24:30,839a few minutes actually with Anthony Figaroa. Thank you say it's all welcome back33900:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,440to the Money Matters Show. It'sJuly ninth. We have Anthony Figaroa from34000:24:34,519 --> 00:24:40,720Heartland Insurance with us. Anthony carriesthe insurance for almost everyone in our office.34100:24:40,960 --> 00:24:45,359Actually probably almost everyone in our building, and anyone that asked me about34200:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,000insurance I talk, I say,gotta call Anthony. He is far and34300:24:49,039 --> 00:24:52,960away as good. And I won'tsay the best, because there are the34400:24:53,079 --> 00:24:56,720great insurance agents out there, butyou will not find a better insurance agent34500:24:57,079 --> 00:25:00,640than Anthony Figaroa. Every time Icall them, I save money on his34600:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,000cell phone. You call me acell phone. Any answers, what is34700:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,599up with that? It's crazy?Anthony. Welcome, good morning, Welcome,34800:25:07,680 --> 00:25:11,720Thank you very much. You've gotit a couple of topics. I'm34900:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,559sorry, I didn't mean it eruptwhat I said. Thank you very much35000:25:15,599 --> 00:25:18,640for the kind words. Yeah,they're they're true. They're true. And35100:25:18,039 --> 00:25:21,680we've got a couple of things wewant to talk about. I think let35200:25:21,720 --> 00:25:26,279me start off with the one.You and I have talked about insurance rates35300:25:26,279 --> 00:25:30,079on electric vehicles. Have you noticedmuch difference? No, No, they're35400:25:30,240 --> 00:25:36,839very very comparable. Um, allthe meetings that I go to from what35500:25:36,920 --> 00:25:41,119the insurance industry says, UM,they have all the bells and whistles,35600:25:41,400 --> 00:25:45,000so the safety is supposed to befar greater. They're supposed to be less35700:25:45,079 --> 00:25:52,440accidentss just because um, you haveall the sensors and um, and you35800:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,359have the sensors in the gas carstoo, but that's in the newer models.35900:25:56,400 --> 00:26:03,400But uh no, everything is uhAnd we've insured by far more Teslas36000:26:03,400 --> 00:26:08,480than any but Chevy's Fords. ButI was surprised. We were all looking36100:26:08,559 --> 00:26:12,000for my friends who are in theinsurance industry, we were all looking to36200:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,079see, Okay, how's this goingto how's this going to vary from a36300:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,519gas or even a hybrid, Andno, they're very very comparable. Interesting,36400:26:19,599 --> 00:26:23,400we know that they would be muchmore complicated to repair, much more36500:26:23,400 --> 00:26:29,920difficult to repair because of the componentsand the limited number of people that do36600:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,519the repairs, that are trained todo the repairs. Right. So yeah,36700:26:33,519 --> 00:26:36,400I was surprised to hear that aswell. And I think some of36800:26:36,400 --> 00:26:41,400that has to do with the typeof person who drives an electric vehicle.36900:26:41,400 --> 00:26:47,720It's at this point anyway, it'smostly well to do older people, right,37000:26:47,839 --> 00:26:51,799I agree, And they do tendto drive a little bit more cautiously,37100:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,000more conservatively. Maybe that's factoring inas well. You mentioned something earlier37200:26:56,039 --> 00:27:00,319when you came in about wildfires,that you have home owners in Tucson being37300:27:00,440 --> 00:27:07,279denied coverage because of wildfires. I'venot seen it in my forty plus years37400:27:07,119 --> 00:27:11,720in the insurance industry, I've neverseen it the way it has been the37500:27:11,839 --> 00:27:19,720last two years. But this yearI'm getting numerous people that are have been37600:27:19,759 --> 00:27:25,480referred to me because they're being canceledbecause they're in a wildfire area yet they37700:27:25,519 --> 00:27:30,480haven't had any fireclaims. And thenwhen I go shop the insurance with all37800:27:30,480 --> 00:27:36,319the companies that I write for,I'm finding two three four companies that say,37900:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,880no, we won't quote it becausethey're in a wildfire area. We're38000:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,559not talking Mount Lemon, We're nottalking the White Mountains. We're talking the38100:27:42,559 --> 00:27:45,640outskirts of Tucson. Yeah, it'samazing. I mean we're not We're not38200:27:45,720 --> 00:27:52,279talking about about how you would expectthat that are actually in wildfire areas.38300:27:52,599 --> 00:27:56,799You're talking about grassland wildfires. Yes, correct, Yes, grassland wildfires.38400:27:56,799 --> 00:28:00,400That's amazing. So so out maybeout tank already way out in there,38500:28:00,960 --> 00:28:07,200West Town. I had I hadan individual um out in ZIP code night38600:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,480five seven four five, which isthe Silver Bell area. It's in the38700:28:11,559 --> 00:28:15,480city limits. Yeah, okay,yeah, it's in the city limits.38800:28:15,079 --> 00:28:18,359And uh, I even call thecompany and they said, uh, it's38900:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,960in the wildfiight area. It's justcan't be. I mean, it's in39000:28:22,039 --> 00:28:26,720the city limits. And uh,but I mean you're talking to somebody who's39100:28:26,759 --> 00:28:30,799in Timbuctoo. They're not even inthe state of Arizona. Who who determines39200:28:30,839 --> 00:28:34,319where these wildfire areas are? That'sa good question. I don't know if39300:28:34,359 --> 00:28:41,799it's the A National Bureau. Idon't know if it's the insurance companies themselves.39400:28:42,599 --> 00:28:48,599Um, but Arizona is not onethat that is like California that every39500:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,839year in the summertime you get thesant Anna winds and in the fires,39600:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,000and you know, it blows blowsdown and it sounds like it sounds like39700:28:56,079 --> 00:29:00,400the way you're saying, Anthony.You might call and four different companies have39800:29:00,559 --> 00:29:04,440these people in the wildfire area.So it must be something that they have39900:29:04,599 --> 00:29:11,119access to, that they all haveaccess to. But this has never happened40000:29:11,160 --> 00:29:18,680in the past. Yeah, andI find it ironic that this situation that40100:29:18,839 --> 00:29:22,440happened a couple of weeks ago,it was in the city of Tucson.40200:29:23,960 --> 00:29:30,200So again it's we're not talking MountainLemon, We're not talking the White Mountains.40300:29:30,680 --> 00:29:36,640We're not talking Flagstaff area. We'retalking out of parts of Tucson.40400:29:37,039 --> 00:29:41,240So if you're buying a house inthe county, you may want to before40500:29:41,279 --> 00:29:45,079you put it off, and youmay want to check with your insurance agents.40600:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,759Am I in a wildfirest Most definitely, because there's a huge difference.40700:29:51,680 --> 00:29:59,759There's a huge difference. Those companiesthat will quote it um they're not going40800:29:59,839 --> 00:30:03,559to be the most competitive, butthen they are because they're the only ones40900:30:03,599 --> 00:30:08,799that will accept it. Interesting.Interesting, I've noticed personally, and I41000:30:08,920 --> 00:30:14,359know Todd as well, that Iget my renewal bill and it's it's fifty41100:30:14,400 --> 00:30:18,480percent higher, one hundred percent higher. You were kind enough to help me41200:30:18,559 --> 00:30:22,279search for a different insurance company andthat cut the rate back to where it41300:30:22,319 --> 00:30:26,160should be. In my mind,well, are you seeing a lot of41400:30:26,200 --> 00:30:30,160inflation? That's that's all that's itseems, That's all I'm doing is is41500:30:30,920 --> 00:30:37,440is clients and referrals. Because onceagain, in the forty plus years that41600:30:37,480 --> 00:30:44,480I've been an agent an agency owner, I've never seen the rates fluctuate like41700:30:44,599 --> 00:30:48,480they have in the past two anda half years. I mean, you're41800:30:48,519 --> 00:30:56,559having companies that have two, maybeeven as many as three rate increases in41900:30:56,680 --> 00:31:03,039a six to nine month period.So somebody gets their their renewal offer and42000:31:03,119 --> 00:31:07,039they say, my rate went uptwenty five percent thirty percent. In reality,42100:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,720that was two rating increases or threerate increases, and they're just seeing42200:31:11,759 --> 00:31:18,720it because they can't raise your rateuntil at renewal and home is dwelling is42300:31:18,799 --> 00:31:22,559twelve months, and the majority ofcars or six months. And that's why42400:31:22,680 --> 00:31:30,519also a lot of companies who writean annual policy for automobile DAVE have now42500:31:32,079 --> 00:31:36,960tailored back and have put it likea moratorium on that. No, we're42600:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,480not gonna write twelve month policies anymore. We're going to do six really yeah,42700:31:41,319 --> 00:31:44,079every six months, every news,every six months instead of every twelve42800:31:44,799 --> 00:31:48,039because during the twelve month period oftime, like I say, if they42900:31:48,119 --> 00:31:55,200have a rate change or two ratechanges, they can't increase your rate until43000:31:55,599 --> 00:31:57,480your next renewal, which maybe tenmonths away, and they can't wait.43100:31:57,519 --> 00:32:00,000They can't wait that long. Itis. It's one of those things where43200:32:00,039 --> 00:32:04,119we all expect prices to be goingup. When I walk in a place43300:32:04,160 --> 00:32:05,799in it, let's price one upa little bit. I figure, I43400:32:05,839 --> 00:32:08,880am, well figures you know,inflation, how much of that. It43500:32:09,000 --> 00:32:14,359seems to me that they're just takingadvantage of that. Are there claims that43600:32:14,480 --> 00:32:19,519much higher than it's? Well whatagain? When I talk to claims when43700:32:19,559 --> 00:32:24,000we go to meetings, they're allsaying the same thing in that inflation is43800:32:24,079 --> 00:32:30,960up. But it's not just inflation, it's it's also um the cost of43900:32:31,039 --> 00:32:34,839materials. You know, wood isup over one hundred, flumbers up over44000:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,559one hundred percent, steel metal isup one hundred and twenty percent. Well,44100:32:38,599 --> 00:32:43,799that's what we that's what we repairour claims with. Here's the other44200:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,960thing two people don't understand. I'llgive you a quick example on automobile is44300:32:47,359 --> 00:32:53,720so you get hit by somebody andyou take your car in and that company44400:32:53,759 --> 00:32:57,559has to get you a rental cardave when your car is being repaired,44500:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,880and that repair should have been Idon't know, five six days maybe,44600:33:00,519 --> 00:33:06,480and now you're in your second monthbecause they can't get parts. And when44700:33:06,519 --> 00:33:08,400I say they, it doesn't matterif it's a mom and pop shop,44800:33:08,440 --> 00:33:13,440it doesn't matter if it's a dealership. They can't get parts. So the44900:33:13,559 --> 00:33:21,440insurance company who had who had thoughtthat they were going to pay five to45000:33:21,559 --> 00:33:25,160seven days of car rental are nowhaving to pay two two and a half45100:33:25,240 --> 00:33:30,720months because they have to continue givingyou your car until your car is fully45200:33:30,759 --> 00:33:35,799repaired. And I'm seeing that alot, I mean a lot. And45300:33:36,640 --> 00:33:42,119and um, you know, Idon't know who you who you blame that45400:33:42,240 --> 00:33:50,519on other than where they're getting theirparts and and uh and it's uh,45500:33:50,599 --> 00:33:53,200it's completely out of control. Soso what you're saying is that whether it45600:33:53,319 --> 00:33:59,200be your home or your car orwhatever, you have ensured that there is45700:33:59,319 --> 00:34:07,639a just viable reason to increase premiumsbased upon the inflation that's taking place within45800:34:07,840 --> 00:34:12,800the car parts, within the housepart. It's definitely number the all that.45900:34:13,199 --> 00:34:16,480So it isn't just them wanting toraise prices because they can. Well,46000:34:16,599 --> 00:34:21,039I'm not saying that the insurance companyis one hundred percent on the up46100:34:21,079 --> 00:34:23,679and up having done this for fortyplus years. UM, I have my46200:34:23,840 --> 00:34:30,000questions also that people can't can't explainto me in detail. Um. Another46300:34:30,119 --> 00:34:37,960thing is they can't you it's it'sI talked to body shops, repair shops.46400:34:38,360 --> 00:34:42,920They can't find workers. Oh yeah, yeah, I think everybody everybody's46500:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,480looking for still for work. Imean you go to restaurants you go to46600:34:47,079 --> 00:34:52,920I don't care what it is,retail. Everybody's looking for work and so46700:34:52,199 --> 00:34:57,679that's delaying things too. But ifthat delays matters in the meantime, you46800:34:57,800 --> 00:35:04,440have to be compensated by the insurancecompany. And UH and that's definitely and46900:35:04,559 --> 00:35:09,280I see it on a weekly basisbecause I'm very involved in claims and UH,47000:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,440and I see that happening, Iwould probably say two out of three47100:35:15,480 --> 00:35:20,360times, that's absolutely amazing. That'sreally the value of calling you, Anthony47200:35:20,559 --> 00:35:24,559is if one company is taking advantageof the inflation situation, you aren't just47300:35:24,960 --> 00:35:30,480selling one company. That's correct,an open marketplace, that's correct. I'm47400:35:30,559 --> 00:35:34,440not. I'm not what they calla captive carrier Todd that you don't.47500:35:34,519 --> 00:35:37,599You don't have a choice because theycan only write for that company. Right.47600:35:37,760 --> 00:35:42,599You're fantastic, You're fantastic agents.We love having Anthony in our lives47700:35:42,639 --> 00:35:46,320and you would too. So ifyou'd like UH to talk to Anthony,47800:35:46,519 --> 00:35:50,519give us a call five to zerofive four four four nine er nine.47900:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,719Anthony, thanks for taking time tobe with us this morning. Very much.48000:35:52,960 --> 00:35:58,199We'll talk to you soon back afterthis break. Say it's all.48100:36:05,719 --> 00:36:07,519Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Todd Glick. I'm48200:36:07,559 --> 00:36:10,840here with Dave Sherwood and thinks againto Anthony figure Road. It's always great48300:36:10,840 --> 00:36:15,639to have him on the show.Talk about what's happening in the insurance marketplace.48400:36:15,079 --> 00:36:20,159Really interesting about those wildfire Isn't thatweird? Or though they could have48500:36:20,280 --> 00:36:22,400a home in the in the citylimits and you're in a wildfire area.48600:36:22,519 --> 00:36:24,719Yeah. I grew up on silverBell, right, so I mean,48700:36:24,920 --> 00:36:30,000knowing that that's a wildfire area,it's kind of surprising to hear. I48800:36:30,119 --> 00:36:32,559was with Liberty Mutual and I gotmy auto insurance bill and it had gone48900:36:32,599 --> 00:36:36,440up by a thousand bucks. NowI did. I had no accidents,49000:36:36,519 --> 00:36:39,239no issues of any kind, noclaims, and went to Anthony, and49100:36:39,480 --> 00:36:45,239Anthony switched me from Liberty Mutual toProgressive and saved me a thousand bucks.49200:36:45,519 --> 00:36:50,880I went I was with a Geicoand they were going to increase it probably49300:36:51,079 --> 00:36:53,559one hundred bucks a month on me. And so, you know, with49400:36:54,000 --> 00:36:58,719Anthony, switched over to Progressive aswell, got the lower rate. Also49500:36:59,119 --> 00:37:02,679just had to change my home insurancepolicy, got a lower rate there as49600:37:02,679 --> 00:37:07,440well. So it always seems likewhen I call him I saved some money.49700:37:07,599 --> 00:37:09,320It's amazing. Anyway, we appreciatehim coming on. He's a great49800:37:09,360 --> 00:37:14,679guy and you'd love him. Backto the market. We saw oil prices49900:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,599tick up two dollars this week dueto Saudi Arabia and Russia say and they're50000:37:19,039 --> 00:37:22,400going to keep their production cuts inplace. Had a big Friday, yep,50100:37:22,239 --> 00:37:29,159yep. The inversion, the twoyear ten year inversion shrank a little50200:37:29,199 --> 00:37:30,679bit. It narrowed a little bit, didn't it. Yeah, it would50300:37:30,679 --> 00:37:34,760have been running and it got ashigh as one a little a little over50400:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,599one percent last week. Difference.And that's again the difference between short term50500:37:37,719 --> 00:37:43,280race and long term rates because frankly, the market thinks that the interest rates50600:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,360are going to be coming down asthe economy slows and we go into a50700:37:45,400 --> 00:37:51,639section and I know it doesn't matter, but the one year two year spread50800:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,519is significant. It's really surprising tosee such a big jump there. I50900:37:55,559 --> 00:37:59,559mean, the one years like fivepoint four percent right now, and the51000:37:59,599 --> 00:38:05,920two years was four point nine.Yeah. Yeah, the gold was up51100:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,280four dollars. Did I say thatfour dollars to nineteen twenty five? You51200:38:08,360 --> 00:38:13,000did not? Bitcoin did edge lower, it had that big jump in June51300:38:13,559 --> 00:38:19,639um after a Fidelity in Schwab saidthey're going to come together and try to51400:38:19,719 --> 00:38:24,559sponsor an ETF, and then ablack Rock is leading the way on an51500:38:24,639 --> 00:38:31,440ETF. There is no bitcoin ETF. There's a Bitcoin Futures ETF, right,51600:38:31,519 --> 00:38:37,239but there is no spot bitcoin ETF. Feeling is that if that were51700:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,719to be approved, and there areintelligent people who believe that the way they've51800:38:40,760 --> 00:38:45,840structured this one may lead to itsapproval, right. I thought it was51900:38:45,000 --> 00:38:49,320very interesting, not on the bitcointopic, but on the black Rock topic.52000:38:50,079 --> 00:38:54,280Larry Fink's been making the rounds aroundall the media areas and specifically Fox52100:38:54,440 --> 00:38:59,599News. I saw an interview hewas giving and he was The headline was52200:38:59,719 --> 00:39:05,360he's a shame to be associated withthe ESG and doesn't want investors to believe52300:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,800that what is said that's getting donewith their money is actually getting done.52400:39:08,880 --> 00:39:14,639They want to disassociate themselves as muchas they possibly can with ESG, even52500:39:14,679 --> 00:39:21,239though they were the ones that basicallycreated an environmental environment. Oh yeah,52600:39:21,360 --> 00:39:27,280environmental governmential governance. Yeah yeah yeah. I always get investing a green investing,52700:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,400especially, and I believe morning Staris the one that actually rates your52800:39:30,679 --> 00:39:36,800ESG score, which how they dothat, who knows. But at the52900:39:36,880 --> 00:39:38,719end of the day, ESG hasbeen on the topic a lot of people53000:39:38,800 --> 00:39:44,079minds. I've had countless people whenthey would come in here ask do you53100:39:44,159 --> 00:39:46,920guys invest in black Rock? Doyou guys invest with ESG? And it's53200:39:46,960 --> 00:39:52,280not something we for the most partnot wanting wanting the answer to be no,53300:39:52,639 --> 00:39:54,079right, right exactly. Yeah,they don't want anything to do with53400:39:54,119 --> 00:39:58,280it. Yeah. You know,if anyone doesn't already know, we invest53500:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,320based on returns, right, youknow, we don't invest based on moral53600:40:01,400 --> 00:40:05,960issues. But it was just reallyinteresting to see Larry Fink really come out53700:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,320and say listen, like, don'tassociate it, like I don't want this53800:40:08,440 --> 00:40:14,119to be because you know, obviouslyFox News being right leaning, to see53900:40:14,199 --> 00:40:16,679him really make an effort out there, who knows, maybe you see a54000:40:16,719 --> 00:40:22,039little bit of a tide shift.Interesting. Interesting. We saw the Regional54100:40:22,119 --> 00:40:25,440Bank ETF we kr E is asymbol. The Regional Bank ETF ticked up54200:40:25,440 --> 00:40:30,039another two percent last week. It'snow twenty percent off of the may low.54300:40:30,119 --> 00:40:36,159And the reason that we even watchedthat is because the regional bank solvency54400:40:36,599 --> 00:40:39,239became such a major issue. Yeah, and I still think there's a you54500:40:39,320 --> 00:40:43,800know, one of those canaries andthe coal mines still with the regional banks.54600:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,320It hasn't started to sing yet.But it's the commercial real estate sector,54700:40:46,880 --> 00:40:51,639right. We all know commercial realestate has been taken absolute drumming since54800:40:51,719 --> 00:40:55,880the pandemic, and it hasn't reallygotten a lot better because even when CEOs54900:40:55,880 --> 00:41:00,519of companies try to make people comeback to work in work, a lot55000:41:00,559 --> 00:41:04,519of them are getting kind of metwith and uprising with the revolt saying no,55100:41:04,639 --> 00:41:07,119we're not going to do it.And if you have your entire employee55200:41:07,159 --> 00:41:13,320base saying that, you might haveto you know, heat to their concerns.55300:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,079So it's if we don't get peopleback in the offices. I mean55400:41:16,159 --> 00:41:21,320in Phoenix, it's fascinating when Idrive up there's so many office buildings completely55500:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,480vacant, you know, and itdoesn't look like they've had vacancy in two55600:41:24,599 --> 00:41:29,159years. Yeah, you know howcompanies aren't in the business of losing money,55700:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,599right, So if it doesn't workin the next three, four or55800:41:31,639 --> 00:41:36,000five years, what are they goingto turn these places into. And if55900:41:36,039 --> 00:41:37,840they don't turn them into something,they're going to be a loss but not56000:41:37,920 --> 00:41:42,800going to bold those The property rightA Foothills mall is being build over,56100:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,280right, but that's a certain typeof commercial. It will be interesting to56200:41:45,320 --> 00:41:49,400see what happens there. Yeah,I mean obviously the malls and the and56300:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,920the movie theaters are a different typeof story. But the office buildings you56400:41:52,960 --> 00:41:54,760can do a lot with those.Yes, you don't have to demas the56500:41:54,920 --> 00:42:00,159entire build absolutely, So how thatgets resolved is going to be a big56600:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,719issue, especially at the regional banksit is. I had an opportunity to56700:42:04,960 --> 00:42:10,159sell a car recently, and normallyI'll trade the car in for another car,56800:42:10,239 --> 00:42:15,360but the trade in I was beingoffered was I thought it was very56900:42:15,440 --> 00:42:20,880disappointing, and so I took advantageof these online companies that will buy your57000:42:20,920 --> 00:42:27,079car, and there are dozens ofthem, and I put out maybe six57100:42:27,280 --> 00:42:34,119or seven request to buy my carand CarMax. The stock of CarMax is57200:42:34,199 --> 00:42:37,239up thirty seven percent this year.Thirty percent of it came in the last57300:42:37,360 --> 00:42:42,280ninety days. And CarMax was oneof those companies that I went to.57400:42:43,079 --> 00:42:47,000And this is almost going to soundlike a commercial, but they were well57500:42:47,079 --> 00:42:52,559above the other companies. The carneeded tires and it needed a little bit57600:42:52,599 --> 00:42:55,960of cosmetic body work, maybe acouple of grand Worth, and I was57700:42:57,039 --> 00:43:00,239able to get low retail from them. It was Melissa, It was easy.57800:43:01,119 --> 00:43:05,519I went in, they drove thecar. It took maybe fifteen minutes.57900:43:05,559 --> 00:43:07,679They gave me a written offer thatwas good for seven days, and58000:43:08,320 --> 00:43:12,519I came back in with the carand the title and signed it over to58100:43:12,599 --> 00:43:16,280them and they gave me a checkon the spot and it was done normally.58200:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,880You know you're going to get thebest price for a car by selling58300:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,559it on the Craiglist or the newspairwhatever, right, not not newspairs,58400:43:25,719 --> 00:43:30,400right, But but you don't havethe anonymity that I wanted. I just58500:43:30,519 --> 00:43:35,039wanted the anonymity. I didn't wantto sell it to U Joe Doe And58600:43:35,199 --> 00:43:37,840having come come back a week later, Gods a crap, you know,58700:43:38,000 --> 00:43:42,480because it was a sound car,solid car, nothing wrong with it.58800:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,880But who knows what's going to happenin a month. So I like,58900:43:45,079 --> 00:43:49,679I've always liked the anonymity of tradingit in when I buy another one.59000:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,239Kleina mine Uh told me about CarMaxand so that's why I included them in59100:43:53,320 --> 00:43:57,679the mix, and uh, itwas. It was really no contest when59200:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,599it came down to the end umbetween Carmacks and Carbona and some of the59300:44:01,679 --> 00:44:06,039others. Can't remember their names offhand, but if you have a car to59400:44:06,159 --> 00:44:08,280sell and you don't want to tradeit in, you may want to give59500:44:08,519 --> 00:44:15,199Carmacks a shot. You know.Did you see Meta's new Uh, I59600:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,840don't know what you call it?Platform and what's going on there? Yeah,59700:44:17,920 --> 00:44:23,159so it's called Threads and it wascreated just yesterday, oh Thursday,59800:44:23,960 --> 00:44:28,400And um, it's basically just aTwitter. I mean from the looks of59900:44:28,519 --> 00:44:30,000it. I mean I haven't downloaded. I don't know too much about it60000:44:30,079 --> 00:44:34,400either yet, but it looks likeit's a Twitter. And Elon Musk has60100:44:34,400 --> 00:44:38,719already said that he's threatening to sueMeta because it looks so much like Twitter.60200:44:38,960 --> 00:44:43,280Yes, and uh, you knowthey're going through. They're also going60300:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,639to do a cage match Mark Zuckerbergand Elon Musk, which I'm pretty sure60400:44:46,679 --> 00:44:51,280it was finalized. I'm not sureif it be talking about this, they've60500:44:51,280 --> 00:44:55,400been talking a joke. Dano Whitegot involved and he's you know, he60600:44:55,519 --> 00:44:59,239said it's going to happen, andboth people are really serious. Either way,60700:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,519It's hilarious is that they're actually gonnathey may actually fight in real life60800:45:01,719 --> 00:45:06,079and also in the courtroom. Whoknows, maybe in the same month.60900:45:06,079 --> 00:45:08,039I mean, this is just thedo we live in a simulation day?61000:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,639I mean, what, what iswhat is coming to this world? What61100:45:10,920 --> 00:45:15,280is it? Is this crazy orwhat? Hey? You know, our61200:45:15,320 --> 00:45:21,280client Mike sent me. Uh noticedthere's a there's a huge phosphate rock deposit61300:45:21,800 --> 00:45:27,840discovered in Norway recently that has enoughminerals to meet global demand for batteries and61400:45:28,079 --> 00:45:30,280solar panels for the next one hundredyears. That's what I like to see.61500:45:30,280 --> 00:45:34,039I'm no region, you know that. Yeah, yeah, well they61600:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,079congratulations, I'm going over there.It would be nice to have a source61700:45:37,159 --> 00:45:43,000of these materials from a country otherthan Russia. Yeah, other than China,61800:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,639somebody we actually get along with.Yeah, and uh, that's enough61900:45:49,119 --> 00:45:53,000enough of the Vikings minerals we needfor solar panels and electric cars for the62000:45:53,079 --> 00:45:59,719next hundred years. That would bevery nice. Coin coin base, you62100:45:59,760 --> 00:46:04,079know that rebounded along with it hasrebounded this year with as a bound in62200:46:04,119 --> 00:46:07,800cryptocurrency stocks, up one hundred andtwenty five cents, percent this year.62300:46:07,159 --> 00:46:13,480Piper Sandler says, you better takeprofits as the increase in crypto prices has62400:46:13,559 --> 00:46:16,519not resulted in an increase for tradingfor coin base. Isn't that interesting?62500:46:16,880 --> 00:46:22,599Well, yeah, a lot ofcoin bases revenue comes from those smaller coins.62600:46:22,320 --> 00:46:27,840They can charge a higher exchange transactionfee on them. So if you're62700:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,440looking at it from an exchange pointof view, they want people to get62800:46:30,519 --> 00:46:34,679in those really speculative coins, theones that no one really knows about.62900:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,920Right, if they're not doing it, the trade trading coin is dominating.63000:46:38,000 --> 00:46:43,480Okay, it's dominating the trading soin Ethereum and those are the lowest transaction63100:46:43,519 --> 00:46:47,239fees and exchange is gonna get Sothat's that makes sense. I understand that.63200:46:47,679 --> 00:46:52,800Um, you know, I wantedto bring up by don't don't leave63300:46:52,840 --> 00:46:57,039this coin bas one more thing.Piper Piper says they expect the company to63400:46:57,119 --> 00:47:00,599report the lowest trading volume in overtwo years during the current quarter or during63500:47:00,679 --> 00:47:05,199Q two. Yeah, that's itjust just ended. That'sually a bitcoin still63600:47:05,280 --> 00:47:09,119rising at twenty five seconds. Justobviously the financial plan that we do,63700:47:09,679 --> 00:47:13,880so many people are taking advantage ofit right now, especially during summer when63800:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,400things are getting slower, it's justgone stop, non stop, of course,63900:47:16,559 --> 00:47:19,960but you know when you really actuallyhear it from the people that it64000:47:20,039 --> 00:47:22,679helps them understand where they're at,what to do, gives them peace of64100:47:22,719 --> 00:47:27,559mind at night. Give us acall, absolutely free, go through the64200:47:27,639 --> 00:47:30,039financial plan. You'll get it.You don't have to do business with us.64300:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,119We'll be right back after this break. And the summers, the summer64400:47:32,199 --> 00:47:35,719is a great time to do ittoo, because the dog days. Yeah,64500:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,960a lot of a lot of people. Anyone that can be gone right64600:47:37,039 --> 00:47:42,280now is gone exactly. Anyway,we appreciate you're listening to us on this64700:47:42,760 --> 00:47:55,079Sunday, and we'll be back rightafter this break. Say it's all welcome64800:47:55,079 --> 00:47:59,559back. It's the Money Matters Showon a hot weekend in the desert.64900:48:00,000 --> 00:48:05,039What do you expect right July?Right, you know, and and Dean65000:48:05,199 --> 00:48:07,440is still traveling. We do expectto hear his voice on the radio next65100:48:07,480 --> 00:48:12,320week. And I think those ofyou that hex week, Yeah he's back.65200:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,000Yeah, I think he's supposed tobe back in town on Thursday or65300:48:15,039 --> 00:48:20,239Friday. A come hobbling in onhis uh his with his crutches from his65400:48:20,480 --> 00:48:23,000torn a cl or what we thinkat the torn A c L and Dylan65500:48:23,039 --> 00:48:27,000will be a lot better. Huh, says he's feeling a lot better.65600:48:27,079 --> 00:48:30,719So maybe maybe it's just strain,could be who knows. And Dylan will65700:48:30,719 --> 00:48:35,440be back from his adventures in Kentuckywith our NFL clients, and we might65800:48:35,480 --> 00:48:37,920have a full crew full crew,So we're gonna have to find some place65900:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,519for those people to set and we'regonna be uh. Frankly, I'm enjoying66000:48:40,559 --> 00:48:45,119just having you here, Toddy,because I think the listeners are they're gonna66100:48:45,119 --> 00:48:46,280get old. I think they're tiredof us. I thought, well,66200:48:46,519 --> 00:48:52,559I know that people love Dean's enthusiasm, his opinion. We all do.66300:48:53,039 --> 00:48:58,039Um. You know he I've saidbefore that he has more passionate about everything66400:48:58,119 --> 00:49:01,480than I have about anything. He'sa passionate guy, got a lot going66500:49:01,559 --> 00:49:05,480on. He's a very smart guy, and we look forward to having him66600:49:05,519 --> 00:49:07,679back. So I want to givea summary of what the market died.66700:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,840Yeah, let's recap it. AndDAL was down two percent on the week,66800:49:12,000 --> 00:49:15,679It's still only up two percent yearto day. SMP was only down66900:49:15,800 --> 00:49:19,480one point one percent on the week. It's up fourteen point six year to67000:49:19,559 --> 00:49:23,000day, and the NASDAC down pointnine percent on the week and still up67100:49:23,159 --> 00:49:28,760thirty percent plus on the year.The equal weighted, though obviously we try67200:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,320to point this out because so manypeople they failed to do so, will67300:49:31,320 --> 00:49:36,000fail to realize it is the equalweighted is only up five point two percent67400:49:36,119 --> 00:49:40,559year to day, more than halfof the regular weighted SMP. And that's67500:49:40,639 --> 00:49:47,519because those magnificent seven stocks, whichis the vast majority of the S and67600:49:47,559 --> 00:49:51,800P five hundred, or just bringingthe all the S and P five hundred67700:49:51,800 --> 00:49:55,280returns with them, where the vastmajority of the equal weighted aren't performing that67800:49:55,400 --> 00:50:00,079way, and so the equal weightedis only up five point two percent on67900:50:00,159 --> 00:50:04,440the year. If you've got aif your investment profile is aggressive and you're68000:50:04,480 --> 00:50:07,760one hundred percent in tech stocks,you could be up thirty or forty percent68100:50:07,840 --> 00:50:14,079for the year. If you're aconservative person wanting dividend paying boot chip stocks68200:50:14,159 --> 00:50:17,320with good dividends and low pees,you could actually be down for the year.68300:50:17,519 --> 00:50:22,639Right, we talked about those dividendETFs that diver it's huge, it's68400:50:22,719 --> 00:50:28,559dramatic, and u with the CPIcoming out next week, we'll see where68500:50:28,559 --> 00:50:31,119the inflation's at but UM, it'spretty much a done deal. There's about68600:50:31,119 --> 00:50:36,440a ninety five percent chance of arate hike in July. UM obviously probably68700:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,079going to be twenty five bases points, so not a huge hike. UM.68800:50:39,440 --> 00:50:43,360But then the CPI is probably goingto point a lot towards the next68900:50:43,440 --> 00:50:46,920meeting after that. And again wehave CPI coming out Wednesday, and that's69000:50:46,960 --> 00:50:51,400always a market mover. We'll see, we'll see what it does. UM69100:50:51,960 --> 00:50:55,400had a want to talk a littlebit about Tesla. Tesla jumped to the69200:50:55,480 --> 00:51:01,920highest level since September on Monday afterreporting they delivered twenty thousand more cars than69300:51:01,920 --> 00:51:07,199analysts had expected. Get this,they delivered four hundred and sixty six thousand69400:51:07,360 --> 00:51:14,079cars in the second quarter. Now, for comparison, Ford which is one69500:51:14,119 --> 00:51:19,599of their main competitors in theory,saw production double in the second quarter.69600:51:20,440 --> 00:51:24,239It doubled to thirteen thousand, fivehundred vehicles, or about three percent of69700:51:24,360 --> 00:51:30,280what Tesla delivered. So Ford hadto double to get to three percent of69800:51:30,360 --> 00:51:35,239what Tesla's doing. Every quarter.Tesla delivery two to four weeks. If69900:51:35,280 --> 00:51:39,599you wanted to buy a Tesla orLeasa, Tesla afford three to twelve months.70000:51:40,400 --> 00:51:45,400They've got to get that production undercontrol. They've got to get that70100:51:45,559 --> 00:51:50,039production the production level ramped up toa greater extent. They have a really70200:51:50,159 --> 00:51:58,920nice lightning pickup, they have areally nice Mochi Mustang suv that are electric.70300:51:59,599 --> 00:52:01,519You've got demand for those things.They've got to be able to produce70400:52:01,599 --> 00:52:06,920them in the early stages. Werein the very early stages of electric vehicles.70500:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,760I think we'd all agree right nowit seems like getting anything but a70600:52:09,840 --> 00:52:15,840Tesla as a struggle. I didsee a Rivian the other day, Rivian70700:52:15,000 --> 00:52:20,719suv by the way, driving upCracroft. So if you have a Rivan70800:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,920suv, I saw you and theRivian pickup which I've seen driving down Cracroft.70900:52:24,000 --> 00:52:29,280I don't know why I only seeRivians on Cracroft. Maybe the one71000:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,280person in tooth On that has aRivan lives on Kraig Rocks. Who knows,71100:52:31,480 --> 00:52:38,679I don't know. The Tesla's increasingdominance of the charging space is unbelievable.71200:52:39,480 --> 00:52:44,039It's become actually almost as important,or maybe more important than the car71300:52:44,039 --> 00:52:47,559itself. It's and it's no wonderthat investors are wanting to buy Tesla stock,71400:52:49,000 --> 00:52:54,400it's just dominating the space. ValuationTodd is ridiculous, but valuation of71500:52:54,519 --> 00:53:01,440Tesla stock is always ridiculous. Teslathat rally on Monday boosted the shares of71600:53:01,599 --> 00:53:07,639Rivian, Fisker or lucid Um andall of their competitors. But Tesla is71700:53:07,719 --> 00:53:10,760in an is in another world fornow. For now, I think the71800:53:10,840 --> 00:53:14,679only thing to look out, andI said this earlier in the show,71900:53:14,800 --> 00:53:19,000is their production numbers still outpaced theirdelivery numbers. But that's that's recent,72000:53:19,119 --> 00:53:23,639that's recent. Well yeah, butthey just also um lowered their price of72100:53:23,760 --> 00:53:29,000their models significant, not significantly,but they they've done it twice in the72200:53:29,119 --> 00:53:30,360last twelve right, and then theyraised them back up. You know why72300:53:30,519 --> 00:53:34,320because you have to be a certainprice level to get to seventy five hundred72400:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,239dollar taxgram. Oh see, that'sinteresting. Yeah, so they cut they72500:53:37,239 --> 00:53:40,199cutted a couple of thousand ago.That's below the seventy five mistake there,72600:53:40,719 --> 00:53:44,960back up, That's what I mean, is like, and you said a72700:53:45,039 --> 00:53:46,960couple of times like eventually anyone whocan afford a Tesla, that wants a72800:53:47,000 --> 00:53:51,320Tesla will have it. Yeah,right, seems like it. And then72900:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,440if you if they have these gigafactories that are just obviously producing numbers out73000:53:54,800 --> 00:53:59,840you know, uncomparable to any othercompanies. Ford has a good problem where73100:54:00,199 --> 00:54:04,400they need to increase production to keepup with demand. If Tesla's on the73200:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,480other side of the problem, thatis a recipe for disaster if economy slows73300:54:07,519 --> 00:54:13,079down, and then again the stockis extremely pricey. Uh. You know73400:54:13,159 --> 00:54:17,239Tesla's biggest rival in China, xPang I don't obviously pronounced the x pang73500:54:17,360 --> 00:54:24,159or yeah, loves it, yes, yes, And they increase their deliveries73600:54:24,199 --> 00:54:29,280to twenty three thousand cars in thesecond quarter. Again, Tesla was four73700:54:29,360 --> 00:54:32,719hundred and sixty six thousand. ButI believe that company is bigger in China73800:54:32,800 --> 00:54:37,599than Tesla is in China. InChina, yes, yes. Interestingly,73900:54:37,679 --> 00:54:43,800the Tesla Model Y, which isthe suv, just earned a five star74000:54:43,960 --> 00:54:49,199safety As if having sixty five percentof the market and dominating the charging space74100:54:49,360 --> 00:54:53,280wasn't enough. Now their SUV earnsa five star safety rating from the euro74200:54:53,519 --> 00:55:00,840NCAP, achieving the highest overall scorefor safety of any new vehicle under the74300:55:00,920 --> 00:55:04,960protocol. Wow the model why Tesla? So there you go, there you74400:55:05,079 --> 00:55:07,800go. So it's It's one ofthose things that that it's it's hard to74500:55:07,840 --> 00:55:14,400compete with them because they have hadsuch a head start and this this do74600:55:14,519 --> 00:55:16,599you want to go into this rangedanxiety thing that we were talking about.74700:55:17,519 --> 00:55:23,000I've got for the last ten daysfull disclosure. UM. We hear a74800:55:23,079 --> 00:55:28,079lot of things on the show aboutelectric vehicles, and we get emails from74900:55:28,119 --> 00:55:31,199clients that are in favor of theelectric vehicles, we get emails from clients75000:55:31,280 --> 00:55:37,320that are against electric vehicles, uhand and everything in between. I had75100:55:37,360 --> 00:55:43,000a car that came off of leaseand I had to do something else,75200:55:43,519 --> 00:55:47,639and I'm now driving a Tesla Model. Why I'm doing that for I'm taking75300:55:47,719 --> 00:55:54,119one for the team people. Iwant to know. I'm I'm a curious75400:55:54,159 --> 00:55:57,800guy and I want to know reallywhat you know, what's going on?75500:55:58,519 --> 00:56:01,119What is good about this? Isbad about this? What? What's wrong75600:56:01,239 --> 00:56:07,159with this experience? What could this? Is this for real? Is this75700:56:07,159 --> 00:56:12,639going to replace internal combustion engines?So for the last ten days, I've75800:56:12,679 --> 00:56:16,400been driving this model Why and Iwant it up front. I want to75900:56:16,440 --> 00:56:22,519say it has been a spectacular experience. I have never driven a car that76000:56:22,719 --> 00:56:27,960is more fun. It's rides great, it is so fast, which we76100:56:28,039 --> 00:56:31,360all know that about electric cars.It is so fast it's scary um and76200:56:31,679 --> 00:56:37,239and it's as well appointed a lotof electronics, um, really really nice76300:56:37,239 --> 00:56:44,519stuff. With that said, theprimary issue to me right now seems to76400:56:44,599 --> 00:56:51,239be range RGE, the range ofthe vehicle. When you get range numbers76500:56:51,320 --> 00:56:55,480from these companies, what you're gettingis how far the car will go on76600:56:55,719 --> 00:57:01,119one charge in perfect, perfect conditions. And when they give you these range76700:57:01,199 --> 00:57:07,559numbers, they're talking about driving sixtyfive miles an hour with no air conditioner,76800:57:07,039 --> 00:57:14,360no radio, no lights, andtemperatures under eighty five degrees and flat76900:57:14,480 --> 00:57:19,679road, flat road, absolute optimalconditions. So to give an example,77000:57:19,760 --> 00:57:22,360my Tesla model, why is athree hundred and thirty mile range? I77100:57:22,400 --> 00:57:25,440said, well, that's that's nice, right. You turn on the air77200:57:25,559 --> 00:57:31,119conditioner, you lose seventeen percent statistically, that's that's a fact in normal weather.77300:57:32,519 --> 00:57:37,599While in any weather you go fasterthan sixty five, you lose range.77400:57:38,760 --> 00:57:43,840If it's hotter than eighty five,you lose range. Wells what I'm77500:57:43,880 --> 00:57:47,239saying with AC it's going to workharder in hotter Chursen's compared cooler r and77600:57:47,960 --> 00:57:52,199you and I both know that ifwe're going to drive to Phoenix, you're77700:57:52,280 --> 00:57:55,760going to be driving seventy five eightymiles an hour. At least, you're77800:57:55,800 --> 00:58:00,360going to have the air conditioner on. It is generally going to be more77900:58:00,400 --> 00:58:05,079than eighty five degrees outside, andall of these things suck at the power78000:58:05,880 --> 00:58:12,679to where the range of these vehiclesis dramatically less than what is advertised.78100:58:13,639 --> 00:58:19,840The Tesla model why advertises three hundredand thirty miles of range air conditioned.78200:58:20,039 --> 00:58:22,320And I have a little bit aboutlead foot, I have to admit,78300:58:22,119 --> 00:58:27,719so driving like a little late anthe way to churches, like it likes78400:58:27,800 --> 00:58:31,440that better than it likes me.All of these does, right? Yea,78500:58:32,440 --> 00:58:36,960all of the all of these thingscome into play. So you're losing78600:58:37,960 --> 00:58:42,360range because of your AC. Somake a long story short, three hundred78700:58:42,360 --> 00:58:46,159and thirty miles is the range Ithink realistically, what I'm getting is about78800:58:46,159 --> 00:58:51,960one eighty. And you brought upanother interesting point about charging the battery.78900:58:52,239 --> 00:58:54,320Yes, yes, and let's let'sgo. Let's go with this. So79000:58:54,400 --> 00:58:58,920it's let's say, let's say myrange is really one eighty in the real79100:58:59,039 --> 00:59:04,039world, I drive to Phoenix andI've got to stop and charging Phoenix to79200:59:04,159 --> 00:59:10,639get home. Charging is interesting.I thought the higher the charger, the79300:59:10,960 --> 00:59:15,360faster it would charge. In otherwords, there's a seventy five kilowatt chargers79400:59:15,480 --> 00:59:20,480up at Line Cantata. There's twohundred and fifty kilowatt chargers over at Orange79500:59:20,519 --> 00:59:24,719Grove in the freeway. Interestingly,I'm at the two hundred and fifty kilowatt79600:59:25,079 --> 00:59:30,719chargers and I'm getting about sixty kilotsa charge. Why, I have no79700:59:30,800 --> 00:59:32,840idea. There's four other cars.There are five other cars there at the79800:59:32,920 --> 00:59:37,199bank of I think sixteen chargers.I guess they're sucking some of it,79900:59:37,239 --> 00:59:43,280but I don't know. But ittook me fifteen minutes five zero to charge,80000:59:43,559 --> 00:59:46,119to go from forty percent charge toone hundred percent charge. Now,80100:59:46,280 --> 00:59:51,960the other interesting part is these electricvehicles. To preserve the battery, they80200:59:52,039 --> 00:59:54,719don't want you to charge more thanninety percent unless you're going on a trip.80300:59:54,920 --> 01:00:00,239What's the normal battery life for threeKessler tees it for three hundred thousand.80401:00:01,239 --> 01:00:05,239Yeah, so's that's not a issue, not a sue. But they80501:00:05,280 --> 01:00:07,280don't want you to charge greater thanninety percent, and they don't want it80601:00:07,360 --> 01:00:13,360to fall below twenty percent. Soif your range is one hundred and eighty80701:00:13,400 --> 01:00:16,760miles, like I'm saying mine is, and you keep it between twenty and80801:00:16,880 --> 01:00:21,519ninety, now you're only getting seventypercent of that. Yeah, right,80901:00:22,119 --> 01:00:24,639So now you know, like we'reone thirty five, that's your range before81001:00:24,719 --> 01:00:30,119you go, before you're down totwenty percent. Anyway, make a long81101:00:30,239 --> 01:00:32,559story short. I love it.I love the cars so much fun.81201:00:34,440 --> 01:00:37,480But I think what you need isyou need to have you need to approach81301:00:37,519 --> 01:00:39,440it on the basis of it beingyour town car. That doesn't mean it81401:00:39,480 --> 01:00:45,199can't take trips, because I've readabout trips or five thousand miles. I've81501:00:45,280 --> 01:00:49,599got friends that have driven over fromSan Diego. Here's the problem. If81601:00:49,639 --> 01:00:52,360you go to San Diego, youhave to stop and heal a ben and81701:00:52,559 --> 01:00:55,559charge. You have to stop inYuma and charge, and you have to81801:00:55,639 --> 01:01:00,760stop in El Centro and charge becauseyou're going to be going up the mountains81901:01:00,519 --> 01:01:05,239to San Diego, and the mountainssuck your battery dry. So you've got82001:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,360to make three stops, each oneof them a minimum of thirty minutes.82101:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,880Sy're adding an hour and a halfto two hours to your trip. Can82201:01:10,960 --> 01:01:15,920it make it, absolutely absolutely,it can make it. But if I82301:01:15,039 --> 01:01:21,840think that I'm much more comfortable havingan internal combustion engine when I go visit82401:01:21,880 --> 01:01:25,280my daughter in Orange County, ora hybrid yeah, or a hybrid,82501:01:25,440 --> 01:01:29,400yeah, I agree, Or ahybrid. The all electric thing is is82601:01:29,440 --> 01:01:34,039a lot of fun. If you, I will say this, if you82701:01:34,199 --> 01:01:38,079don't take it out of town andyou have a charging station in your garage,82801:01:39,280 --> 01:01:43,400you'll never have more fun with avehicle than these things. These are82901:01:43,599 --> 01:01:46,920blast yeah, But that's but itdoes have limitations. And I feel like83001:01:47,039 --> 01:01:53,000I feel like I can kind ofsomewhat intelligently talk about it. Would I83101:01:53,840 --> 01:01:58,440a month into it? Would I? Would I renew it? If three83201:01:58,519 --> 01:02:00,880years from now? I don't know, right? Just been it? Probably83301:02:00,920 --> 01:02:02,679not right? Just man, Iprobably am. I don't think so.83401:02:04,239 --> 01:02:09,239But the ride and the power isaddictive. The power is really addictive.83501:02:09,719 --> 01:02:15,079Um. And it's not just tryingto show off or trying to beat a83601:02:15,119 --> 01:02:19,159corvette off the line, which youcan do with easily. UM. It's83701:02:19,360 --> 01:02:24,159it's being able to uh get inin an opening, like if you have83801:02:24,360 --> 01:02:28,519a heavy traffic and there's just asmall open, you just punch a You're83901:02:28,559 --> 01:02:30,920in there, you're in the you'reyou're in the opening move in the same84001:02:30,960 --> 01:02:34,800speed as the other cars, justliterally within seconds. Um, that's kind84101:02:34,800 --> 01:02:37,800of addictive. I'm gonna have hardYou also don't use the break at all.84201:02:38,760 --> 01:02:42,960Um, it's I think it's whatthey call recumbent recumbent breaking, where84301:02:43,000 --> 01:02:45,719you you let up on the gasand it and the break comes on.84401:02:45,199 --> 01:02:50,480The breaks are guaranteed for the lifeof the car because you don't ever use84501:02:50,519 --> 01:02:53,800them. No if you I'm surethis is boring many of you, and84601:02:53,880 --> 01:02:59,400I apologize for that, but we'vetalked so much about electric cars in Dean's84701:02:59,440 --> 01:03:01,840absence because he doesn't like to talkabout him, although his wife wants one84801:03:04,079 --> 01:03:07,800full disclosure. Um, it's it'sa lot of fun, but there are84901:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,559limitations, and uh, you needto know them. I think if you're85001:03:10,559 --> 01:03:15,199going with your eyes wide open.I did not had I known all of85101:03:15,280 --> 01:03:19,000these things, would I have goneahead and had gotten one. I just85201:03:19,079 --> 01:03:22,199took a three year lease, andat least because I don't know what's going85301:03:22,280 --> 01:03:25,559to happen with technology three years fromnow, This technology may be completely different,85401:03:25,840 --> 01:03:30,320right, I mean, and I'mstuck with a old car with an85501:03:30,440 --> 01:03:32,840old battery like a three year oldcell phone. Who knows when I have85601:03:34,599 --> 01:03:37,920fusion or fission cars? And whoknows in years? Who knows pletely different85701:03:38,039 --> 01:03:42,280technology? Yeah, exactly, Andit makes makes sense to lease it right85801:03:42,360 --> 01:03:46,079now because you know it's the technologyis going to be different week and it's85901:03:46,119 --> 01:03:51,440not a if it's it's just awin. Yeah. I feel like I86001:03:51,519 --> 01:03:53,719can talk intelligently about it, whichis what You've done more research than anyone.86101:03:53,760 --> 01:03:58,199I know. That's what I wantedto know because I hear so much86201:03:58,280 --> 01:04:00,719on both sides. I really wantedto be able to talk intelligent lay one.86301:04:01,280 --> 01:04:03,000Um, I think one of thethings that I keep you know,86401:04:03,079 --> 01:04:06,039oh, it's going to soaked uppowered grid, right, we don't have86501:04:06,159 --> 01:04:12,039enough power for all these electric cars. And then Ron our listener, Ron86601:04:12,159 --> 01:04:16,079says, you know your car's chargingin the middle of the night when nobody's86701:04:16,159 --> 01:04:20,199using the power grid, And that'slike, oh yeah, like kings on86801:04:20,400 --> 01:04:24,679right, right, Yeah, you'reright, that's true. Right, So,86901:04:25,199 --> 01:04:29,840um, you can actually program thecar to charge between one and five87001:04:29,880 --> 01:04:32,159in the morning, right, Andso when the electric rates are low and87101:04:32,199 --> 01:04:36,679there's nobody using the grid, awaywe go. And it's nice with the87201:04:36,960 --> 01:04:40,559lectric car. You don't have toworry about oil changes, right, you87301:04:40,599 --> 01:04:44,360don't have to worry about a lotof the servicing you would with a normal87401:04:44,440 --> 01:04:49,400car. But with that comes othersure, and it's cost effective obviously,87501:04:49,840 --> 01:04:54,079especially if you have it in yourhouse. If you're using the Tesla superchargers,87601:04:54,360 --> 01:04:57,440they can be a little bit.I charged from thirty to one hundred.87701:04:57,559 --> 01:05:00,800It was twenty bucks, So youknow that was twenty bucks for a87801:05:00,960 --> 01:05:04,320tank. Yeah. Full. Ifyou're charging at home, I'm told it87901:05:04,440 --> 01:05:10,199can be twenty to twenty five dollarsa month on your electric bill. No,88001:05:10,679 --> 01:05:14,599but again it has limitations, umEli, Lily, excuse any biogen.88101:05:14,679 --> 01:05:18,119On Thursday, the FDA approved thecompany's Alzheimer's treatment. But that's that88201:05:18,280 --> 01:05:24,000to me is really good news.This is seen as a pivotal decision in88301:05:24,159 --> 01:05:29,320that in that it's todd it's expectedto expand access to these expensive drugs for88401:05:29,400 --> 01:05:33,760older Americans because Medicare said once theFDA approved the drug, they'll cover it.88501:05:34,280 --> 01:05:38,280Yeah, but I also heard thisdrug isn't that effective. It does88601:05:38,360 --> 01:05:45,079slow Alzheimer's, but it's not likeit doesn't do what it actually says.88701:05:45,079 --> 01:05:46,280It's gonna do well, it's notgonna cure it, right, right,88801:05:46,440 --> 01:05:49,039But at this point, if youhave someone with Alzheimer's, if you could88901:05:49,079 --> 01:05:51,880slow it by six months to ayear, wouldn't you do that? Right?89001:05:51,960 --> 01:05:57,239But when you say Alzheimer's drug,you don't think you think it's going89101:05:57,280 --> 01:06:00,519to solve it. Not. Yeah, yeah, it's not or not yet.89201:06:00,000 --> 01:06:05,199Eli Lily has a competing Alzheimer's drugthat's likely to get FDA approval.89301:06:05,280 --> 01:06:10,880Now. Of course they have thenew weight loss drug more Journal, which89401:06:10,960 --> 01:06:14,880is supposed to be all that stockhas moved up forty percent in the last89501:06:14,880 --> 01:06:17,559twelve but you know, Eli Lilyis now the largest drug company in the89601:06:17,639 --> 01:06:23,239world by market value. Eli Lily. You never guess that. However,89701:06:23,320 --> 01:06:26,920I try not to think too muchabout the size of pharmaceutical companies. Really,89801:06:27,519 --> 01:06:30,039you got you. It depresses melike a pharma hater. I am89901:06:30,119 --> 01:06:33,639a little bit. Okay, whatever, it's no older first night chere for90001:06:33,679 --> 01:06:36,679pharma. Well, you know,at the end of the day, though,90101:06:38,000 --> 01:06:41,920let's be real, their their profitmakers. They are they are you90201:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,679know, they seem to do prettywell. First incentive is not to necessarily90301:06:45,559 --> 01:06:47,920do what they say they do.It's to make money. Well, I90401:06:47,960 --> 01:06:51,239think major major corporations in general ofthat, which is why three a M90501:06:51,519 --> 01:06:56,400breathe a sigh of relief when theyget their ten billion dollars settlement. Oh90601:06:56,519 --> 01:07:00,280that's it, Okay, we canhave that ten billion dollars. Yeah,90701:07:00,679 --> 01:07:04,159it's crazy. Lily stock is Youknow, if you wanted to have a90801:07:04,280 --> 01:07:09,840drug stock that probably has more goingon than any other drug stock, it90901:07:09,920 --> 01:07:14,760would be Eli Lily. But thestock has trained it at five times the91001:07:14,920 --> 01:07:19,000value of Murk and Feiser. It'svery pricey from a valuation point of view.91101:07:20,360 --> 01:07:24,639Funny thing this past week. Oneof the big stories is past this91201:07:24,760 --> 01:07:30,039week was Progosian in Russia, thehead of the Wagner Group, and they91301:07:30,119 --> 01:07:32,719made the march on Russia and thenyou know, he called it off and91401:07:32,760 --> 01:07:36,519Putin says, okay, you're fine. Whatever. Anyways, Putin's trying now91501:07:36,599 --> 01:07:42,480to be to become the strong managain after looking like a little girl there91601:07:42,519 --> 01:07:48,079for a while. His role asthe strong dictator was really damaged by this91701:07:48,280 --> 01:07:53,719march on Russia or march on Moscow. And so they rated Progosian's house.91801:07:53,800 --> 01:07:57,519That's one thing they did. DoWe hear all the time about the US91901:07:57,599 --> 01:08:00,559dollars, especially people that are tryingto sell you a bit going trying to92001:08:00,599 --> 01:08:03,559sell your gold. They want tothink that the US dollar is being replaced92101:08:03,599 --> 01:08:08,760by other currencies. Is a thingof the path. We know Todd that92201:08:08,880 --> 01:08:12,440eighty eight percent of all cash transactionsin the world are still in dollars.92301:08:12,679 --> 01:08:16,640Eighty eight percent now it's eighty eightIt's down four percent though, down four92401:08:16,680 --> 01:08:21,720percent from forty from forty years ago. But was interesting when they showed the92501:08:21,800 --> 01:08:28,960picture the Putin invaded Progosian's house inhis office, and they found a hundred92601:08:29,720 --> 01:08:35,039million dollars, one hundred million dollars. And guess what they weren't one They92701:08:35,119 --> 01:08:39,960weren't end they weren't rubles. Theywere if you look at the picture,92801:08:40,399 --> 01:08:45,760they were US greenback dollars. Thatthis head of the Wagner Group, one92901:08:45,800 --> 01:08:54,960of Putin's former closest friends and allies, one of his partners and a dictator93001:08:55,039 --> 01:08:58,439on his own if you will,has got his house full of US dollars.93101:08:58,760 --> 01:09:01,039Yeah, if you ever looked ata drug, what kind of currency93201:09:01,279 --> 01:09:03,720do they have? Yeah? Idon't think they're probably do have an Indian93301:09:04,439 --> 01:09:11,000or even I mean very they're goingto be the thing that is transferable the93401:09:11,159 --> 01:09:14,720most everywhere in the world. Yeah, that's US dollars. It's not even93501:09:14,800 --> 01:09:19,439close. And to have the ideathat people need to realize what truly backs93601:09:19,479 --> 01:09:26,359a currency in a fiat setting isit's military. And we have the strongest93701:09:26,399 --> 01:09:29,600military in the world. Yeah,and if any if there's any real threat,93801:09:29,680 --> 01:09:32,239all we do is we take oneof our big navy ships, put93901:09:32,319 --> 01:09:35,800it on that coast, and wesay, either reverse what you did or94001:09:35,840 --> 01:09:39,600there's gonna be problems. And mostof the time the country reverses what they94101:09:39,640 --> 01:09:43,640do and they stay on the USdollar system. The only way the US94201:09:43,720 --> 01:09:49,119dollar truly could have a threat isif our military doesn't continue to get stronger.94301:09:49,239 --> 01:09:53,680And as we saw last year inour defense budget, it continues to94401:09:53,800 --> 01:09:58,920increase. We continue to increase ourmilitary strength throughout the world. I don't94501:09:58,960 --> 01:10:02,520think there's any worry about our currencygoing anywhere. No, you hear so94601:10:02,720 --> 01:10:09,439much of this from people who standto benefit from others thinking that there's a94701:10:09,520 --> 01:10:13,479problem. Right again, bitcoin andgold, and that's like we hear all94801:10:13,520 --> 01:10:15,359the time, like they're giving allthis money to Ukraine, They're not giving94901:10:15,439 --> 01:10:19,159anything. Those are loans, right, and they have to be repaid back.95001:10:19,279 --> 01:10:21,640Right in theory, those are loansand hopefully we'll get them back at95101:10:21,720 --> 01:10:26,319some point and whether it be throughactual dollars or through commerce. You know,95201:10:26,399 --> 01:10:30,880that is the wheat center that isn'tthem. I'm missing the fertilizer center.95301:10:31,119 --> 01:10:34,880Right, A lot of that stuffcomes. That's a huge need globally,95401:10:35,520 --> 01:10:39,960right. That's why we are investingso much into Ukraine. It's an95501:10:40,039 --> 01:10:43,920investment, it's not a donation.It also has the largest border with Russia95601:10:44,560 --> 01:10:47,239and others, which there's kind oflike another really good reason they get a95701:10:47,279 --> 01:10:51,199base right in Ukraine. Yeah,I mean that's really the goal of why95801:10:51,239 --> 01:10:55,880we're in this in the first place. I think the stability just trying to95901:10:55,960 --> 01:11:00,560say it's just that Russia would evendo this is beyond comprehension. It's just96001:11:00,800 --> 01:11:04,560well, it's not beyond comprehension becausethey are responding to what they think is96101:11:04,560 --> 01:11:08,800an existential threat. If you putthem yourselves in their shoes, they think,96201:11:09,479 --> 01:11:13,119the um, what what's the internationalmilitary? What do they call it?96301:11:14,239 --> 01:11:18,479Interpol? No, not Interpol,the oh, the UN. Yeah,96401:11:18,520 --> 01:11:23,399the UN. They have like amilitary that they call I don't I96501:11:23,479 --> 01:11:26,800can't think of the word. Butanyways, they did. They were approaching,96601:11:27,720 --> 01:11:31,880you know, into Ukraine, andthat's scared a lot of Russian military96701:11:31,960 --> 01:11:35,359leaders and so from their point ofview, they did see an existential threat.96801:11:35,520 --> 01:11:38,560Doesn't make it right or wrong now, I think it's just I think96901:11:38,560 --> 01:11:41,800it's a seventy year old Putin justtrying to put Russia back together before he97001:11:41,880 --> 01:11:44,439dies. But you know, itis what it is, right, doubt97101:11:44,520 --> 01:11:46,359that, Yeah, that's that seemsto be what what he has in his97201:11:46,479 --> 01:11:51,479mind because he's not he does notseem to be on this planet. Have97301:11:51,600 --> 01:11:54,840you had a conversation with him withthe rest of us, because all we97401:11:54,960 --> 01:11:57,079see is what they tell us.I mean, we don't know. It's97501:11:57,079 --> 01:11:59,319a good point. No, that'sthat's fair. That's fair, that's fair.97601:11:59,359 --> 01:12:01,680What we see is is what thenews broadcast is. Sarah, we97701:12:01,960 --> 01:12:05,840are coming to the end of thefourth segment. We'll be back with Jonathan97801:12:05,960 --> 01:12:11,479Sivilia at some point here. Yes, and we thank you for joining us97901:12:11,520 --> 01:12:14,319on this Sunday morning. We'll beright back after this break. Thanks again.98001:12:14,359 --> 01:12:21,119This is a Money Matter show.Say it's a welcome back to the98101:12:21,199 --> 01:12:25,319Money Matter Show. My name isToddlick. I'm here with Dave Sherwood in98201:12:26,079 --> 01:12:31,399our special Guests coming a regular Iappreciate it. Jonathan Savilia part of Edward98301:12:31,479 --> 01:12:36,399Law Firm here part of our officenow not domiciled underneath our office. But98401:12:36,800 --> 01:12:42,800of course today we were going totalk about S corps, right, yes,98501:12:42,840 --> 01:12:45,640sir, And so first off,what is an S corp? How98601:12:45,680 --> 01:12:51,359does that differ from other corporate entities? Good questions? So, an S98701:12:51,479 --> 01:12:59,560corp is the term comes from subchapters of the tax code. It's like98801:13:00,479 --> 01:13:05,000it's kind of a hybrid of acorporation C corp and a partnership. All98901:13:05,079 --> 01:13:13,000right, So today or this weekis going to be a very special day99001:13:13,000 --> 01:13:16,680because I'm gonna be filing what's calledan S election. And the importance of99101:13:16,760 --> 01:13:21,640an S corp is. Let's sayhypothetically, you own a business and you99201:13:21,720 --> 01:13:28,319report all your income on your tenforty right on your schedule C. All99301:13:28,359 --> 01:13:31,840right, you're paying what's called selfemployment tax. All right. Self employment99401:13:31,920 --> 01:13:38,359tax is basically around fifteen percent fifteenpoint two percent extra tax that you're paying99501:13:38,439 --> 01:13:44,319every year. I'm paying that whenI'm on my personal business because I haven't99601:13:44,359 --> 01:13:47,560filed my selection. I haven't createdan s corp. Okay, So what99701:13:47,720 --> 01:13:51,960I'm doing is, I'm going todo this selection and I'll no longer be99801:13:53,079 --> 01:13:57,039an owner of my business. I'llbe a shareholder, so I won't have99901:13:57,119 --> 01:14:00,279to pay self employment tax now,and I will be avoiding the fifteen point100001:14:00,359 --> 01:14:08,600two percent taxation on my ten fortymoving forward. Now, the reason to100101:14:08,720 --> 01:14:12,479do an s corp can be manyreasons. You know, the protection of100201:14:12,560 --> 01:14:15,079assets, but the big thing isto avoid taxes. You talk to any100301:14:15,119 --> 01:14:17,479CPA or you talk to any taxprepare Once you get to a certain level100401:14:17,479 --> 01:14:21,399of income, you're gonna want tofile this twenty five fifty three this selection100501:14:21,600 --> 01:14:29,039because you're basically the tax return you'regoing to file for your s corp.100601:14:29,279 --> 01:14:34,199And the small administration that is involvedwith the s corp that outweighs the tax100701:14:34,319 --> 01:14:39,600benefit, all right, or thetax benefit outweighs the administration. So that's100801:14:39,640 --> 01:14:44,640why you're going to do it.So there are some rules. But I100901:14:44,880 --> 01:14:46,640have reached that level, and Isay, you know, around forty thousand101001:14:46,680 --> 01:14:49,239dollars fifty thousand dollars of revenue.Once you get there, you should be101101:14:49,319 --> 01:14:53,479considering doing what's called an s corps. So you can avoid that fifteen point101201:14:53,520 --> 01:14:58,119two percent of self employment tax.Why would why would you not do it101301:14:58,560 --> 01:15:01,199at twenty thousand, Well, there'salways a possibility. But then you know,101401:15:01,319 --> 01:15:04,359that's what we were talking about theadministration side. So I could have101501:15:04,399 --> 01:15:10,039probably did it done the twenty thousandbecause I'll file my own tax return because101601:15:10,600 --> 01:15:14,600you know, when you do createan s corp, you'll you'll be create101701:15:14,680 --> 01:15:18,119filing what's called an eleven twenty suh. It's a separate tax return for the101801:15:18,239 --> 01:15:23,279business. You know, in theCPAMA charge a thousand and two thousand dollars101901:15:23,399 --> 01:15:27,920to do that. And also there'syou will, as I said, you're102001:15:27,920 --> 01:15:30,560a shareholder, so now you workfor the business, so you'll have to102101:15:30,640 --> 01:15:35,039take some payroll, and you knowthe payroll administration that may cost a little102201:15:35,079 --> 01:15:40,239bit of money too. But youknow, when you're around fifty thousand dollars,102301:15:40,319 --> 01:15:43,880what's fifteen percent of fifty thousand dollars, that's seven thousand dollars in tax102401:15:43,960 --> 01:15:47,479savings right there. You know,well, obviously you know if you're taking102501:15:47,520 --> 01:15:49,960payroll, you'll have to you know, withhold a little bit of money,102601:15:50,000 --> 01:15:54,920you're gonna have some fighting fight onSocial Security that you'll have to pay,102701:15:55,399 --> 01:15:59,760but you want to weigh that andpay yourself a reasonable salary and make sure102801:16:00,119 --> 01:16:02,880that you hit that sweet spot whereyou begin to start saving taxes. So102901:16:03,119 --> 01:16:09,600then you would receive a W two. Correct as a shareholder is a correct103001:16:09,720 --> 01:16:12,760term or for working for the businessa shareholder? Yeah right, you're a103101:16:12,800 --> 01:16:15,279share old and you're one hundred percentshareholder. Now you you know, typically103201:16:15,319 --> 01:16:18,359want to be one hundred percent active. It's not something that you can do103301:16:18,560 --> 01:16:24,720passively. I have a client thatI'm working with right now. He came103401:16:24,800 --> 01:16:29,000to me six or seven years agowhen I was at my old large law103501:16:29,039 --> 01:16:31,319firm. He sent me a taxmessage. And then he's a real estate103601:16:31,359 --> 01:16:34,720agent and he's filing everything on aschedule. See, but he does his103701:16:34,800 --> 01:16:38,359own taxes, and that's the problem. He's not getting any tax advice.103801:16:38,399 --> 01:16:40,800I took a look at his taxreturn because we were doing some things with103901:16:40,880 --> 01:16:45,000his estate planning. He's making likeone hundred and twenty thousand dollars and paying104001:16:45,560 --> 01:16:50,079almost twenty thousand dollars and self employmenttax that he could avoid a lion share104101:16:50,119 --> 01:16:57,760of that just by filing his SCORP. So the fifteen percent self employment taxes104201:16:58,119 --> 01:17:01,079is over and above your income tax. Correct, So if you make if104301:17:01,119 --> 01:17:05,000you if you have fifty thousand dollarsworth of income, of course I guess104401:17:05,079 --> 01:17:11,079the fifteen thousand dollars self employment tax? Would that be a deduction on your104501:17:11,119 --> 01:17:14,920return or tax credit or you doget a credit for some of the self104601:17:14,960 --> 01:17:17,079employment tax that you pay. Sowhere do they get that number? Fifteen104701:17:17,079 --> 01:17:21,560point two percent? They get itbecause the I R S assumes that,104801:17:23,159 --> 01:17:27,079Okay, So the self employment taxis based off basically off payroll. So104901:17:27,479 --> 01:17:31,319in your W two, if youadd up your FICA and your Social Security,105001:17:31,800 --> 01:17:36,880your Social Security and the other taxesthat you pay in there, it105101:17:36,960 --> 01:17:42,159should come out to about fifteen pointtwo percent. Medicare and social Security should105201:17:42,159 --> 01:17:44,439come out to about fifteen point twopercent. So that's where they come up105301:17:44,439 --> 01:17:47,199with a social security. So youdon't have a W two when you work105401:17:47,239 --> 01:17:50,840for yourself, so they expect youto pay some of that some of that105501:17:50,960 --> 01:17:57,680fight at tax. So does whatdoes the fifteen percent include? Does it105601:17:57,800 --> 01:18:01,239include social Security and Medicaid? Andokay, so that that's all included,105701:18:01,600 --> 01:18:08,079correct, So when you become whenyou become an s S corp, then105801:18:08,239 --> 01:18:13,239you don't need to do the SocialSecurity So when you let's wrapped in on105901:18:13,319 --> 01:18:15,039your W two, then you're payingit through your W two. Right,106001:18:15,119 --> 01:18:17,399But isn't there are there's two parts, right, in other words, I106101:18:17,479 --> 01:18:20,800pay six point two percent or whatever, and doesn't my employer pay six point106201:18:20,840 --> 01:18:26,920two percent? Also there is amatching correct, But yeah, but if106301:18:27,000 --> 01:18:30,439you're employing yourself, you're paying thefull thing. You're paying, uh,106401:18:30,800 --> 01:18:35,920the entire the employer side and theemployee side the twelve point four percent.106501:18:36,880 --> 01:18:43,520So the it's interesting, So you'resaying that. That's why you're saying if106601:18:43,600 --> 01:18:48,479you need to get to a certainincome level before the escort makes sense economically106701:18:48,720 --> 01:18:51,800correct, And so the I arrest. The rules are you have to pay106801:18:51,840 --> 01:18:59,159yourself a reasonable a reasonable uh salary, all right. So let's say your106901:18:59,319 --> 01:19:01,199s corp, like that real estateagent, he made one hundred twenty thousand107001:19:01,199 --> 01:19:06,119dollars, all right, but hemay determine my reasonable salary is sixty thousand107101:19:06,119 --> 01:19:10,439dollars because that's what I would paysomebody to do what I do, all107201:19:10,520 --> 01:19:15,479right, So he would basically bepaying that fifteen point two percent on sixty107301:19:15,520 --> 01:19:19,560thousand dollars and the other sixty thousanddollars of that one hundred and twenty he107401:19:19,600 --> 01:19:25,319made that year is on O taxand self employment at self employment rates.107501:19:25,800 --> 01:19:29,199So if someone's self employed in there, not an SCORP, they should give107601:19:29,199 --> 01:19:31,800you a call correct and at leasttalk about it exactly, and we could107701:19:31,840 --> 01:19:35,680talk through it. We could playaround with the numbers. I'm I'm there107801:19:35,800 --> 01:19:40,159because I own my own firm,so I'm going to be doing a twenty107901:19:40,199 --> 01:19:44,239five fifty three a selection. Andyou know, if you're working with somebody108001:19:44,279 --> 01:19:46,479that won't do it for them forthemselves, I wouldn't work with that person.108101:19:47,039 --> 01:19:51,119Yeah, yeah, I said somethingthat one of the things that are108201:19:51,159 --> 01:19:56,960two of the things that you're mostlyinvolved with here are wills and trust and108301:19:57,119 --> 01:20:01,800trust. Someone called the other dayand you and I were stand there,108401:20:01,800 --> 01:20:08,720and she said, my son needsa trust. What will you charge?108501:20:09,159 --> 01:20:15,079So someone has a relatively simple lifeand wants to have a living trust.108601:20:15,640 --> 01:20:18,680Is there any rough number? Doesit cost a thousand? Does it cost108701:20:18,760 --> 01:20:23,960five thousand? Well? All,I mean a basic trust for a single108801:20:24,039 --> 01:20:28,119individual. And then you know withan estate plan, you know the powers108901:20:28,119 --> 01:20:31,800of attorney. Maybe there's some deeds. It could range between fifteen hundred to109001:20:31,840 --> 01:20:36,239two twenty five hundred dollars for asingle individual, and then for a joint109101:20:36,279 --> 01:20:42,319trust you know, married individuals whereeverybody gets a healthcare and financial power of109201:20:42,359 --> 01:20:47,039attorney and a joint trust and somedeeds. I think that would range between109301:20:47,239 --> 01:20:49,800three to five, but you know, usually on the lower end, if109401:20:49,880 --> 01:20:55,239especially if it's a simple estate astate plan, you know you want everything,109501:20:55,399 --> 01:20:57,720you have everything, and you wantedto go to the kids. Now,109601:20:57,760 --> 01:21:01,199if we're setting up subtrusts and generationsskipping trust, as we've talked in109701:21:01,319 --> 01:21:08,159prior podcasts, you know that theremight be a little bit more of a109801:21:08,199 --> 01:21:13,239fee involved because there's more drafting andmore liability and more technique. And the109901:21:13,399 --> 01:21:16,079important thing to keep in mind forlisteners is once you establish a trust,110001:21:16,119 --> 01:21:20,439and if established correctly, which Iknow John Wood for you, at that110101:21:20,600 --> 01:21:25,039point you have the Christmas tree,right, and then it's just replacing and110201:21:25,119 --> 01:21:28,600adding ornaments, which is your assets, which will change through the years as110301:21:28,680 --> 01:21:32,000they as they should. But youdon't need a completely new trust exactly.110401:21:32,319 --> 01:21:38,920Yeah. I means as long asthings as long as you didn't have any110501:21:39,199 --> 01:21:45,840major life changes where you know youwant to remove trustees or you get divorced110601:21:45,039 --> 01:21:50,039or you have ten more kids.You know, if everything seems to be110701:21:50,159 --> 01:21:54,000the same, you know, maybeyou want somebody to review it and just110801:21:54,159 --> 01:21:58,239to make sure everything's copacetic. Buttypically you don't need to change a trust110901:21:58,600 --> 01:22:06,199under that circumstance unless you reach thosecircumstances buying assets. That's when you just111001:22:06,359 --> 01:22:10,199basically need to fund the trust.You don't need to change the terms of111101:22:10,279 --> 01:22:12,680the trust unless I say, youbuy a house and you wanted to go111201:22:12,800 --> 01:22:16,159to as we discussed with that oneclient had called the other day they wanted111301:22:16,520 --> 01:22:21,319the house to go to their oneson. So all we had to All111401:22:21,359 --> 01:22:26,239you have to really do is amendto trust you and you don't have to111501:22:26,319 --> 01:22:29,960do a whole new one. Justput a small change in an article saying111601:22:30,399 --> 01:22:35,199I want Todd to get the housein uh or was it pinetop right?111701:22:35,439 --> 01:22:41,079So that's basically yet we don't haveto recreate the wheel. Yeah, and111801:22:41,199 --> 01:22:45,600it's so important, and I promiseyou there are people listening who have accounts111901:22:45,720 --> 01:22:50,640that have beneficiaries who are no longerliving, or beneficiaries who are no longer112001:22:51,000 --> 01:22:57,720a part of their life, ora trustee for their children who is no112101:22:57,880 --> 01:23:01,119longer living or is no longer partof their life. These are things that112201:23:01,279 --> 01:23:08,520we do one time and then weput them away, figuring that's done not112301:23:08,720 --> 01:23:11,840so fast. The most common isthe four oh one K. Yes,112401:23:12,119 --> 01:23:15,560you just set that once and thenyou know who knows you leave that employer112501:23:15,600 --> 01:23:19,800and you have no remembrance of whoactually has your beneficiary on that old four112601:23:19,840 --> 01:23:25,319oh one k. Those things youneed to have updated and understand where they112701:23:25,399 --> 01:23:28,880are at. And I think theliving trust is an easy one to put112801:23:28,920 --> 01:23:30,760aside too, because you go throughall the work to get it done,112901:23:30,800 --> 01:23:35,720and they give you this notebook ofthe living wills and the and the medical113001:23:35,760 --> 01:23:40,720powers of attorneys and the poor overtrustand the trust document. You go,113101:23:40,760 --> 01:23:42,800oh, I'm glad we got thatdone, and you put it in the113201:23:42,880 --> 01:23:47,399desk. And I did mind ineighty six and about five years ago my113301:23:47,560 --> 01:23:50,680wife nagged me to the point wherewe had we went and redid it,113401:23:51,279 --> 01:23:56,600which makes sense because a lot ofthe people that we had caring for our113501:23:56,680 --> 01:24:00,239daughter or managing the money for ourdaughter, they're all dead, that are113601:24:00,319 --> 01:24:03,640gone, and our daughter is thirtyeight years old and she doesn't need people113701:24:03,920 --> 01:24:08,159protecting her anymore. And I probablywant everything to go to the grandkids,113801:24:08,159 --> 01:24:10,119at least I've gook at a portionof it. Right. You know,113901:24:10,560 --> 01:24:13,319your daughter sounds like she's a reallygood a good girl. It's got a114001:24:13,520 --> 01:24:18,439very successful life, and so maybeshe doesn't need you know anything, if114101:24:18,479 --> 01:24:20,880you were to pass away, maybeit's time to set up the grandkids.114201:24:21,319 --> 01:24:24,760These are all things that These areall things that can be done. And114301:24:25,239 --> 01:24:30,760Jonathan has skills in this area aswell as extensive skills and taxation, which114401:24:30,840 --> 01:24:34,920is unusual for an estate finding attorney. Give us a call. We'll put114501:24:34,960 --> 01:24:39,079you in touch with Jonathan. He'llbe happy to help you. We're glad114601:24:39,119 --> 01:24:42,560to have him here in the officeand we'll be having him on the radio114701:24:42,600 --> 01:24:46,640once again. We'll be back rightafter this break. Thank you say it's114801:24:46,720 --> 01:24:55,159all well again it's a Money MattersShow. Final segment. We thank John114901:24:55,239 --> 01:24:59,560to Civilia for being with us.John is domiciled in our office, physically115001:24:59,640 --> 01:25:01,880in our office. If you haveneeds of an attorney, especially in the115101:25:01,960 --> 01:25:09,039state finding attorney, especially in astate planning attorney, who has extensive knowledge115201:25:09,039 --> 01:25:13,640of taxes, he is really outstanding. Is a great fine for us,115301:25:13,800 --> 01:25:16,399or you know, while we wereon the Escorp topics and businesses as a115401:25:16,479 --> 01:25:19,039whole. I do want to bringup the fact that I've had a couple115501:25:19,119 --> 01:25:25,520different clients bring up that they arebusiness owners and they have a large savings115601:25:26,319 --> 01:25:30,479put away in their bank account,earning next to nothing, right, and115701:25:30,760 --> 01:25:33,079in this high interest rate environment,it really does start to make sense to115801:25:33,239 --> 01:25:40,319look in other avenues, especially whenyou can accomplish the same goal of preservation115901:25:40,359 --> 01:25:44,000of principle with the higher rate ofinterest, right, right, plus with116001:25:44,159 --> 01:25:47,239more security. And that's what we'vebeen doing here, opening up business accounts,116101:25:47,439 --> 01:25:51,560putting the majority in a treasury ladder, the Vanguard money market Fund,116201:25:51,760 --> 01:25:57,640keeping it majority safe, and earningrates of interest that far exceed anything you116301:25:57,720 --> 01:26:01,039can see in a normal business checkingaccount for doing nothing really other than knowing116401:26:01,199 --> 01:26:04,279us. You're insured up to onehundred million dollars by SIPIC. Yep,116501:26:04,479 --> 01:26:09,800you're insured also with treasuriescent by theUS government. We're guaranteed, not insured,116601:26:10,199 --> 01:26:13,600guaranteed, right, that's even anotch above insured. Good point.116701:26:13,720 --> 01:26:16,199So yeah, we've we've done alot of those treasury ladders, and we116801:26:16,319 --> 01:26:19,319continue to do them. I didone to day, it did one Friday.116901:26:19,520 --> 01:26:23,520I mean, these interest rates havenot been this high since two thousand117001:26:23,960 --> 01:26:27,439and we're getting It's not like theyjumped up and then went right back down.117101:26:27,760 --> 01:26:31,479They're giving you a lot of timeto lock in. And don't don't117201:26:31,560 --> 01:26:34,399be saying, well, the highestyield is in six months, I'm gonna117301:26:34,439 --> 01:26:38,279take that, and then six monthsfrom now it's gonna be higher. These117401:26:38,399 --> 01:26:42,520rates are not going to stay hereforever. Nope. So don't be shy117501:26:42,640 --> 01:26:45,600about maybe taking a little bit longerterm approach with some of the money,117601:26:46,119 --> 01:26:49,600right because if people don't know,the longer dated bonds, the ones that117701:26:49,680 --> 01:26:55,479are ten twenty thirty years are gonnaappreciate more in value if interest rates do117801:26:55,640 --> 01:26:58,760drop compared to a two year bondor a one year bond. Yes,117901:26:59,119 --> 01:27:00,319all right, I'm not gonna intothe math of it, but just take118001:27:00,439 --> 01:27:04,199my word for it. Longer datedbonds are more volatile, right, straights118101:27:04,199 --> 01:27:08,279do job, they're going to appreciatemore. And we just began on Friday118201:27:08,359 --> 01:27:14,840for the first time in years,to look at the long bond right,118301:27:15,119 --> 01:27:19,039look at investing in longer term bonds. We in March of twenty In March118401:27:19,119 --> 01:27:24,199of twenty twenty one, we wentto all short term bonds the smartest thing118501:27:24,279 --> 01:27:30,159we've ever done. And then inMarch of twenty two, we went from118601:27:30,239 --> 01:27:34,439our short term bond ETFs and closedin funds to individual short term bonds.118701:27:34,840 --> 01:27:40,479And there was a thirty five percentdecline in value in short term bonds in118801:27:40,600 --> 01:27:45,520twenty twenty two that we didn't participatein, and thank thankfully, we like118901:27:45,760 --> 01:27:50,159that portion of the accounts to besecure, to be safe, to be119001:27:50,279 --> 01:27:57,039stable. And I sat with Deana year ago and said, you know,119101:27:57,119 --> 01:28:01,319if they start raising raised aggressively,which they did, kind of felt119201:28:01,359 --> 01:28:04,760like they might be going to gothat route, this area is going to119301:28:04,800 --> 01:28:10,439be more vulnerable than the stock andthat's exactly what it was. So we119401:28:11,439 --> 01:28:16,279now for the first time in many, many years, are actually considering investing119501:28:16,399 --> 01:28:20,920in longer term bonds. Thinking likeTodd said that when an interest rates come119601:28:21,039 --> 01:28:26,760down, if and they will ultimatelycome down at some point, that there's119701:28:26,760 --> 01:28:31,479a nice ten to twenty percent popin principal value there and the dividends currently119801:28:31,479 --> 01:28:36,359around three I think, yeah,the dividends around three, Yeah, And119901:28:36,439 --> 01:28:41,319I think it's just so important torealize with whether it's a business account of120001:28:41,359 --> 01:28:45,119personal account and say this is justyour pseudo savings account using treasury ladders and120101:28:45,239 --> 01:28:47,640things like that. There, youknow, we could get money to you120201:28:47,800 --> 01:28:51,359to your bank in two days.We could actually set up the account in120301:28:51,479 --> 01:28:56,279a way that you could spend directlyout of the account and not have to120401:28:56,359 --> 01:29:00,159have it transferred. So in termsof liquidity, you're not giving any thing120501:29:00,239 --> 01:29:02,439up compared to a bank, butyou're getting more interest, you're getting more120601:29:02,520 --> 01:29:06,399safety. It's things that a lotof people should consider. Right then you120701:29:06,439 --> 01:29:13,279should sit down and consider the financialplan with Todd and Dylan. Beyond that,120801:29:13,479 --> 01:29:21,079we have clients that we're managing whohave everything from aggressive to super conservative120901:29:23,000 --> 01:29:26,760and everything in between. Guy,spend a little time on Roth conversions real121001:29:26,840 --> 01:29:32,159quick. Sure client asked me aboutit over the week, and I've come121101:29:32,239 --> 01:29:36,720to realize that my financial planning softwarehas this interesting tool called tax planning.121201:29:38,119 --> 01:29:42,880And again we don't do tax planning, but it's a tool to see you121301:29:43,000 --> 01:29:48,680can model how much lifetime tax savingsyou could estimate based on a certain strategy.121401:29:48,840 --> 01:29:54,119Meaning say we do Roth conversions fora five year period ten thousand each121501:29:54,760 --> 01:29:58,199before R and D started, whateverthe case may be. You can see,121601:29:58,399 --> 01:30:00,920okay, this is going to saveme X number of dollars throughout the121701:30:01,199 --> 01:30:04,479entire life of the plan. Soinstead of just looking at one year,121801:30:04,760 --> 01:30:08,560which that's what many people do whenthey're planning for a Roth conversion, I121901:30:08,600 --> 01:30:10,600just want to make sure that I'mnot in the higher bracket this year.122001:30:10,880 --> 01:30:13,399Well how about you actually look atthe entire picture and see does it even122101:30:13,439 --> 01:30:15,640make sense in the first place?Does it actually save you taxes? Why122201:30:15,680 --> 01:30:17,880are you going through all this workif it's only going to save you one122301:30:17,920 --> 01:30:24,000hundred dollars? Right, So it'sa fascinating tool that shows you all the122401:30:24,119 --> 01:30:27,520tax brackets as well and shows youokay, if you do a twenty thousand122501:30:27,600 --> 01:30:30,479Roth conversion, that's going to sendyou to the new bracket. And then122601:30:30,560 --> 01:30:34,800it even inflates those tax brackets throughthe years because obviously the tax brackets increased122701:30:34,840 --> 01:30:40,399with inflation through the years. Itmodels that in the plan. So in122801:30:40,600 --> 01:30:46,319terms of planning things out for twoplus years and doing distributions, qualified charitable122901:30:46,359 --> 01:30:51,000distributions, roth conversions, those thingscan be modeled with our financial planning software123001:30:51,319 --> 01:30:56,439free of charge. Right, Sotake advantage of that opportunity. We're here123101:30:56,479 --> 01:31:00,439to help anytime, and when youtalk about roth conversions. For those of123201:31:00,520 --> 01:31:05,319you that don't know, a conversionfrom a traditional IRA to a ROTH is123301:31:05,359 --> 01:31:12,560called a roth conversion, and youpay income tax on the money you take123401:31:12,680 --> 01:31:16,319out of the IRA when you takeit out and you roll it into a123501:31:16,439 --> 01:31:20,399ROTH and you then do not donot pay income tax on it again.123601:31:20,880 --> 01:31:25,199Right, So the perfect time todo that is when the market's in the123701:31:25,279 --> 01:31:30,720toilet. Right now we're up thirtypercent. Probably not an optimum time to123801:31:30,840 --> 01:31:32,920do it, but the next timethe market dips that you want to want123901:31:32,960 --> 01:31:36,000to kind of the back of yourmind thinking, hey, those guys says124001:31:36,000 --> 01:31:40,800something about roth conversion, right.And the qualified charitable distributions, if people124101:31:40,840 --> 01:31:45,840don't know, is when you sendyour RMD required minimum distribution from your IRA124201:31:45,039 --> 01:31:49,880to a charity instead of taking itas income as the irs season, and124301:31:50,000 --> 01:31:56,279so you save taxes in that ina way really just the charity doesn't have124401:31:56,359 --> 01:31:59,640to pay taxes on the income.But well, it actually is from a124501:31:59,720 --> 01:32:02,680fine financial point of view, probablyisn't the greatest idea ever, but it124601:32:02,800 --> 01:32:09,840makes you feel good. And whatpeople do is they donate the required minimum124701:32:09,920 --> 01:32:15,760distribution directly to a qualified charity.There isn't then no tax on the withdrawal124801:32:16,000 --> 01:32:21,159from your IRA, but then againyou do not receive a deduction for the124901:32:21,319 --> 01:32:25,039gift to the charity. That wouldn'tmake sense. It was a double dip,125001:32:25,880 --> 01:32:28,520no tax taking it out, butyou don't get a deduction going in.125101:32:28,840 --> 01:32:34,800It's called a QCD qualified Charitable distribution. Hey, you see Costco up125201:32:34,840 --> 01:32:40,399eighteen percent this year, two percentlower on Friday. They reported US sales125301:32:40,520 --> 01:32:44,359dropped two and a half percent inJune. And you look at and go125401:32:44,720 --> 01:32:51,159why gasoline prices almost totally related togasoline prices. Their store traffic, which125501:32:51,279 --> 01:32:55,800is the better measures up three pointsix percent. You know, the stock125601:32:55,880 --> 01:33:00,079has a thirty eight times earnings,which has always expensive if Costco stock is125701:33:00,119 --> 01:33:05,680always expensive, just like Tesla stock, just like Amazon stock, just like125801:33:05,800 --> 01:33:12,039Apple, it's always more expensive thanyou're comfortable buying it. But when you125901:33:12,159 --> 01:33:15,640have a drop like we saw onFriday, where it goes down a couple126001:33:15,720 --> 01:33:18,119of percent, and that's a fivehundred dollar stock, so that's ten bucks,126101:33:19,359 --> 01:33:26,319that's probably an opportunity as opposed toanything to be concerned about Disney.126201:33:26,640 --> 01:33:30,199Disney has been so disappointing this year. They have not participated in this year's126301:33:30,319 --> 01:33:35,880rally at all, but Wells Fargonamed them a signature pick on Friday Todd.126401:33:36,439 --> 01:33:41,960They put the price target at oneforty seven, which is sixty five126501:33:42,079 --> 01:33:45,640percent above Friday's close. Thing aboutDisney, which is fascinating to me,126601:33:45,840 --> 01:33:51,640is all those layoffs of those ESPNanalysts and amazing commentators. Yeah, on126701:33:51,840 --> 01:33:56,479their personalities, Yeah, just jumpingthem like a bad habit. Yeah.126801:33:56,560 --> 01:34:00,279And I saw one of the analystswho didn't get fired. He was just126901:34:00,319 --> 01:34:02,439saying it was a crazy day andhe's never seen anything like it in his127001:34:02,560 --> 01:34:05,520ten years and being an ESPN saysit's a great place to work for,127101:34:05,760 --> 01:34:09,840but it can be cruel at times, which you know, well, I127201:34:09,880 --> 01:34:13,359think they went in and asked aboutwhat Tana on air personality. He's like,127301:34:13,479 --> 01:34:16,079all once, right, it's crazy. I wonder what Bob Iger's thinking127401:34:16,159 --> 01:34:20,119with that, right, I don'tknow what the reasoning would be. I127501:34:20,159 --> 01:34:25,239don't know. Maybe maybe that itisn't the personality that draws the viewers and127601:34:25,359 --> 01:34:28,039he can gets to have any cheaper. I mean, I think it's definitely127701:34:28,159 --> 01:34:30,399worse than when I watched eSPI alot, right, But I guess,127801:34:30,479 --> 01:34:33,640you know, I feel like Thepeople who watch ESPN are the people that127901:34:33,720 --> 01:34:39,119are, like, you, don'thave much to do. Well, when128001:34:39,159 --> 01:34:43,000I come home from work and wellthat's primetime right now. But I come128101:34:43,039 --> 01:34:45,319from work, I work out,I have supper, and then I stood128201:34:45,319 --> 01:34:48,760down. The first thing to dois tryn ESPN. Why because there might128301:34:48,800 --> 01:34:54,239be something I'm interested in. It'sit's certainly it's a kind of a no128401:34:54,399 --> 01:34:59,600brainer if you would. Yeah,that's prime time ting. You know people128501:34:59,640 --> 01:35:01,640that watch during the day, twopm type of thing. Oh yeah,128601:35:02,039 --> 01:35:08,760you know, eleven am, you'rewatching ESPN. The auto companies, Morgan128701:35:08,840 --> 01:35:11,960Stanley raised their price start. We'vetalked a lot about auto companies today.128801:35:12,880 --> 01:35:16,439Morgan Stanley raised their price target onfour to n GM, but they kept128901:35:16,560 --> 01:35:24,119Ferrari as their number one auto companyand very quietly Ferrari and their symbol,129001:35:24,159 --> 01:35:29,600I love their symbol are Ace race. That stock is up fifty percent this129101:35:29,760 --> 01:35:33,640year, Ferrari fifty percent this year. They've been killing it, doing a129201:35:33,840 --> 01:35:39,840doing a great job. The JetBlue they're gonna end their partnership in the129301:35:39,920 --> 01:35:45,239Northeast with American Airlines. Instead,they're going to concentrate on Spirit Airlines and129401:35:45,399 --> 01:35:48,840Sweet Green. The shallow shallow chaingot a nice pop on Thursday after Bank129501:35:48,880 --> 01:35:54,159America upgraded the stock to a buy. Shares are already up fifty percent this129601:35:54,319 --> 01:35:58,720year. Bank of America says,gosh, might be a good time to129701:35:58,800 --> 01:36:02,079buy that stock. I always Ialways struggle. I always struggle with those129801:36:02,199 --> 01:36:05,880types of things where you get ananalyst that comes out after a fifty percent129901:36:06,000 --> 01:36:10,000move up and says, let's buythis, or you got an analyst that130001:36:10,520 --> 01:36:14,279after a stock that's gone in thetoilet says, yeah, we've we've probably130101:36:14,359 --> 01:36:16,680we're going to change this to acell. Anyway, We're coming to the130201:36:16,800 --> 01:36:19,800end of the show. Todd enjoyedworking with you, buddy. It's been130301:36:19,920 --> 01:36:25,880nice. Next week we'll have theGreenberg's back and should be more fun.130401:36:26,119 --> 01:36:28,880Yeah our throats a break, right, Yeah, give our throast a break.130501:36:29,000 --> 01:36:30,680We all want to be happy,and of course healthy is important.130601:36:30,720 --> 01:36:34,399But a Greenberg financial, what workit was going to be, is profitable?130701:36:35,199 --> 01:36:38,039Next week, say it's all