The Latest Jobs Report Exceeded Expectations – More Rate Hikes To Come?

1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,719 It is that time again. If Dave Sherwood, I'm here with Todd Gleck. 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:13,279 Mister Greenberg is in Europe finishing up his vacation. Mister Greenberg Junior is 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,079 in Kentucky meeting with some NFL players. We have a number of clients who 4 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:22,359 are NFL players, and we like to talk to them from time to time 5 00:00:22,359 --> 00:00:26,879 and make sure everything's good with them and uh and meet meet their friends who 6 00:00:26,879 --> 00:00:30,679 are also NFL players, which is which is good because the NFL players tend 7 00:00:30,719 --> 00:00:35,520 to have thin, pretty good careers. Yeah. Yeah, it's July ninth. 8 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,719 It's hotter than hades out there. Oh, that's a good reference. 9 00:00:38,719 --> 00:00:42,840 We're impatiently waiting the monsoons. You know. It's interesting. I've lived here 10 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:47,920 for fifty one years, Todd, fifty one years. That's that's more than 11 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,880 And this is not for those of you that are new to Tucson, and 12 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:56,039 there's a lot of people that are new to Tucson since twenty twenty. This 13 00:00:56,119 --> 00:01:00,640 is not normal. This is not a normal Tucson summer. Okay, we're 14 00:01:00,719 --> 00:01:04,439 running eight to ten degrees above normal. It's typically one hundred to one hundred 15 00:01:04,439 --> 00:01:07,920 and two would be a typical summer. Day, not one o eight to 16 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,359 one, ten to one twelve. We got to one eleven last week. 17 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,400 I think it's your fault. I'm not sure whose fault it is, but 18 00:01:15,439 --> 00:01:18,120 I want to I want to see him. I want to see him now. 19 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,680 You know, a few years ago someone in the weather world decided that 20 00:01:21,879 --> 00:01:26,599 June fifteenth was the beginning of the monsoon, which is ridiculous. June fifteenth 21 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,959 is the middle of the hot, hottest part of the year, and there's 22 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,560 nothing going on there in the way of monsoons. But of monsoon, I 23 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,799 guess officially now is June fifteenth, of September fifteenth, and it's really July 24 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,120 fourth until about the end of August. And July fourth is has come and 25 00:01:42,159 --> 00:01:47,280 gone, and we're ready bringing on. I don't see any storm, no, 26 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,120 no, and we get but we're having a little cooling spell this weekend, 27 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,200 down to like one oh six. You know, Oh, it's not 28 00:01:52,799 --> 00:01:56,120 it's ridiculous. I mean a cooling spell used to be ninety eight, ninety 29 00:01:56,159 --> 00:01:57,879 nine. But it's anyway, enough about the weather. It was a very 30 00:01:57,879 --> 00:02:01,040 strange week in the market in that we had a half a day of trading 31 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:06,560 on Monday, then on Tuesday we had a holiday, and then on Wednesday 32 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:10,159 we got to do Monday again, and then Thursday and Friday. I was 33 00:02:10,319 --> 00:02:14,800 I was talking to a client, uh Friday morning, and I said, 34 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:15,800 well, why don't you give me a call tomorrow? And he goes tomorrow 35 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:21,000 Saturday. I said, no, tomorrow's Friday. Here, you don't even 36 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,919 know. We all messed up. It was a very strange weekend. It 37 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:28,039 was. It was an unusual week in the market. On a half a 38 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,560 day of trading before a holiday, you don't get much in the way of 39 00:02:30,599 --> 00:02:35,039 action. I think the SMP was up three or four points on Monday. 40 00:02:35,719 --> 00:02:38,639 Tuesday closed. Wednesday we come in. The FED releases their beige book, 41 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:44,439 which is essentially the minutes from their last meeting, and what a shock. 42 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,439 It said that they're going to raise rates one or two more times, something 43 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:52,599 Powell's been saying for a month, something that they have made no secret of. 44 00:02:53,199 --> 00:02:55,120 U and the market sold off five Hunter plays. Did I'll sold off 45 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:59,759 five Hunter plots? Oh no, they're gonna like, did it finally hit 46 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,080 you that the fat is not done yet? We've been saying that on the 47 00:03:02,159 --> 00:03:07,960 show for a week. The fat is not done yet. Hopefully they don't 48 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:13,919 go until they break something, which they can do. But we that Spike 49 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,159 and Raith on Wednesday shot mortgage rates up to around seven and a half percent. 50 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:23,280 That's getting to be pretty close to a sixteen year high on mortgage rates, 51 00:03:23,319 --> 00:03:27,439 if you can believe that, and that that was not good. And 52 00:03:27,479 --> 00:03:32,479 then of course we had On Thursday, the ADP came out with their private 53 00:03:32,599 --> 00:03:39,120 sector jobs report and it showed that a massive number of jobs were created in 54 00:03:39,199 --> 00:03:44,199 June, twice as many as expected. And then the next day the government 55 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:49,280 gives the government Jobs report and it shows that fewer than expected jobs were created 56 00:03:49,319 --> 00:03:53,479 in June. Half as many is not even half as many as ADP had 57 00:03:53,599 --> 00:03:58,840 estimated with their survey. So somebody's got to got to adjust the numbers and 58 00:04:00,439 --> 00:04:05,319 work on their formulas for gathering data because they got somebody's wrong. Certainly, 59 00:04:05,719 --> 00:04:09,199 before we get too much further, we'll do our disclaiming real quick. This 60 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,319 show is sponsored by the Greenberg Financial Group. You can listen on seven ninety 61 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,000 k ST or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different investment products and strategies, and 62 00:04:16,079 --> 00:04:19,639 every product in strategy has some type of inherent risk. We strongly, strongly 63 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,680 encourage our listeners to properly understand these risks to determine whether to buy, sell 64 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:26,959 or hold. The show's been on the air for over thirty years. The 65 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,040 Greenberg Financial Group is registered with the SEC and is a member a member of 66 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,959 fin and SIPIC. You can visit our website Greenberg Financial dot com for more 67 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:38,160 information Perfect Perfect. You want to give a summary of what the market did 68 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,000 last week, I will the Dow was down two percent on the week. 69 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:45,040 S ANDP was down one point one, NASDAG down point nine, that equal 70 00:04:45,079 --> 00:04:48,720 weighted was down point seven, Russell two thousand, the small cap stocks down 71 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:54,000 one point two percent, right, So the Dow getting them worst of it 72 00:04:54,079 --> 00:04:59,560 again, which is interesting because when you're in a market where the momentum is 73 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,879 strong, people don't want value, they want growth. They want the hottest 74 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:10,000 toy on the hottest toy in the store. And as of the end of 75 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:16,800 June, I follow five dividend paying ETFs. High dividend paying ETF These guys 76 00:05:16,879 --> 00:05:20,839 actually last year, in a twenty percent down year, we're all up a 77 00:05:20,879 --> 00:05:26,920 little bit because that's where people were seeking safety last year was in the dividend 78 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,959 pairs. Interestingly, through the end of June, they're down around four percent 79 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,240 for the year. That's where the SMP five hundred fourteen point six in the 80 00:05:34,319 --> 00:05:41,600 NASTAC up thirty. So I don't remember a year where it was more important 81 00:05:42,759 --> 00:05:46,720 as to which sector you're in. The performance in your account can be ten 82 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:51,600 to fifteen percent difference in a six month period depending upon how you're allocated. 83 00:05:53,199 --> 00:05:57,839 Right. The sector allocation is huge right now, and the correlation of sectors 84 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:04,160 to the s ANDP is getting it. When you have a technology sector that's 85 00:06:04,199 --> 00:06:09,720 so much higher than the rest of the sectors in the SMP, the correlation 86 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:14,839 gets thrown off. And so really what's happening right now is all the stocks 87 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,120 right we talked about the Magnificent seven are really just taking the SMP up with 88 00:06:18,199 --> 00:06:24,199 them. And that's why you have such a divergence in different allocation models right 89 00:06:24,639 --> 00:06:29,240 right. And because the SMP five hundred is overweighted to these stocks, the 90 00:06:29,399 --> 00:06:32,160 SP five performance is strong, and of course that gets people to say, 91 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:33,879 man, I do want to miss out on this, so I got to 92 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:38,079 jump in. So they started driving up other things and what can we look 93 00:06:38,079 --> 00:06:42,319 at that hasn't performed yet? Maybe maybe there's maybe that and it's really an 94 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:47,480 interesting time. We do have the sector summary for the first half of the 95 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,519 year. Tied you on to give me a review of that sector summary. 96 00:06:50,639 --> 00:06:57,240 Yeah, so on June, technology was up five percent, Communications was up 97 00:06:57,319 --> 00:07:00,600 three point three Consumer discretionary led the way. In June they were up ten 98 00:07:00,639 --> 00:07:04,439 point nine percent. All sectors in the SMP were up, but year to 99 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:09,759 date a couple are still down. Utilities lead the way, down five point 100 00:07:09,759 --> 00:07:14,800 seven percent. Energy is second lowest. But again the top gainers technology and 101 00:07:14,839 --> 00:07:18,480 communications. And we all know that communication sector isn't really communication, it's more 102 00:07:18,519 --> 00:07:23,560 technology. It's really just another technology upf so it makes sense that it's right 103 00:07:23,639 --> 00:07:27,839 underneath and consumer discretionary right underneath that. With the thirty two percent gain on 104 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,759 the year, isn't it interesting that of the eleven SMP five hundred sectors, 105 00:07:30,759 --> 00:07:35,040 the number one performer in twenty twenty three was dead last in twenty twenty two. 106 00:07:35,279 --> 00:07:40,879 Yep, the number the worst performer in twenty twenty three was the leader 107 00:07:41,519 --> 00:07:45,959 in twenty twenty two. It's just amazing how it flows like that. And 108 00:07:46,079 --> 00:07:48,000 we know that as money managers, you try to buy things that are out 109 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,399 of favor. One of the problems with that is you buying things that are 110 00:07:51,399 --> 00:07:54,680 out of favor. Right now, you might have a period of two, 111 00:07:54,759 --> 00:08:00,399 three, four or five months one hundred performance right before the valuation it starts 112 00:08:00,439 --> 00:08:03,480 to kick in, so be patient. It could catch a falling knife, 113 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,360 right That's that's the whole thing and the real interesting you know, obviously with 114 00:08:07,399 --> 00:08:11,839 the contrarian trades performing well this year, now, if you're trying to look 115 00:08:11,879 --> 00:08:18,079 for what could possibly be, I'm really interested in the consumer staples sector of 116 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:22,319 the SMP because it has relatively underperformed with the rest of the sectors in the 117 00:08:22,839 --> 00:08:28,199 in the SMP. However, if we do go into a recession and we 118 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:33,840 see the drastic decrease in economics activity, it would consumer staples are the things 119 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:39,039 that we're all going to continue to buy, right Those are your your toothpaste, 120 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,679 the cereals, the brand names, things that are not going to go 121 00:08:41,759 --> 00:08:46,600 anywhere. So if you're looking for a place that could be a place of 122 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:50,279 safety, you're not going to have the high flyers like you are in technology, 123 00:08:50,519 --> 00:08:52,919 but it could be a place that in the future catches up to the 124 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,480 rest of the SMP or doesn't go down as much as the SMP if it 125 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,799 does start to fall, right, I guess that's a good idea. And 126 00:09:00,039 --> 00:09:03,399 the interest rates rising from zero to about five and a half percent, we 127 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:09,000 are actually now starting to nibble away at long term bonds. Long term bonds 128 00:09:09,039 --> 00:09:13,279 have just gotten slaughtered over the last eighteen months. And when interest rates stop 129 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:18,679 rising and the economy slows, which is what the Feds trying to achieve, 130 00:09:18,399 --> 00:09:22,000 we ought to be able to get a nice little pop out of the long 131 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,159 term bonds in terms of valuation. We also have the Dow stocks, and 132 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:30,519 again we follow the S and P five hundred, not so much the doll 133 00:09:30,639 --> 00:09:33,360 because the Dow is only thirty stocks, but it does try to mimic the 134 00:09:33,399 --> 00:09:39,919 economy and it sends some messages. Interestingly, Todd, halfway through the year, 135 00:09:39,399 --> 00:09:45,279 of the thirty stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial average, sixteen of them 136 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:50,039 are higher and fourteen of them are actually down for the year. It's hard 137 00:09:50,159 --> 00:09:54,320 hard to even imagine if that's the case. But in June, the performance 138 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,799 in June, Caterpillar the was the eight hundred pound guerrilla. In June it 139 00:09:58,799 --> 00:10:03,559 was seventeen point seven percent. It actually had been one of the worst performing 140 00:10:03,639 --> 00:10:09,559 dallastocks this year after being one of the better performing dallastocks last year, and 141 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,399 they rebounded seventeen point seven percent in June. It was the only one with 142 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:18,000 double digit gains, although all of the dallastocks were up in June, with 143 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:22,480 the exception of United Healthcare. And of course we know why United Healthcare is 144 00:10:22,519 --> 00:10:28,320 down because everybody's hurting themselves playing pickaball in that that's just so funny and it's 145 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,879 but it's so true. I mean I turned on ESPN the other night and 146 00:10:31,879 --> 00:10:35,039 there's some kind of a pickaball championship going on, right, and it's really 147 00:10:35,399 --> 00:10:39,960 it's just taken off. And I guess it's because anybody can do it, 148 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:46,000 right, And but it also it doesn't take like it's not a huge endurance 149 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,759 event, right right, Yeah, yeah, anybody can do at any age. 150 00:10:48,759 --> 00:10:50,240 You can do it and you don't take It doesn't need a lot of 151 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,399 expensive equipment, it doesn't take a lot of time. I mean, you 152 00:10:54,399 --> 00:10:56,639 can go play football for a half an hour if you one or an hour. 153 00:10:56,639 --> 00:11:01,080 I will say that this that the the pick of all tournaments are playing 154 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,200 pickleball on a way different level than what I've ever seen. It plays. 155 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:09,000 Oh yeah, there's they're spinning the ball and doing all the reflexes of those 156 00:11:09,039 --> 00:11:13,559 people, and it's mostly younger people. The reflexes are just phenomenal. I 157 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:18,480 mean the professionals are going to be probably younger, right yeah, absolutely absolutely. 158 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:24,480 The top performing Dove stock this year Salesforce dot Com. Uh, it 159 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,919 was actually one of the three stocks that was down in June. It was 160 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,799 only down eight tenths of a percent, but that's the top performer in the 161 00:11:30,879 --> 00:11:35,080 Dow, which allowed Apple and Microsoft to almost catch up with them. They're 162 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:39,120 only ten percent behind Salesforce dot Com. At one point, Salesforce dot Com 163 00:11:39,159 --> 00:11:45,320 was about thirty thirty five percent ahead of anything else. Um. Walgreens worst 164 00:11:45,399 --> 00:11:50,480 performing Dove stock this year, worst performing Dove stock in June. I think 165 00:11:50,519 --> 00:11:56,360 we said last week the stock was at something like a fifteen year low Walgreens. 166 00:11:56,399 --> 00:12:01,159 And again a lot of reasons for that, but the COVID pandemic having 167 00:12:01,279 --> 00:12:05,519 kind of waned has really cut their store traffic. And Amazon is making some 168 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:11,320 inroads into their business, right yeah, so it'll be it's a Walgreens is 169 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:16,039 another on the job's report to government. Jobs Report came out on Friday and 170 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:20,679 it was interesting to see where the jobs, where the pickup was in the 171 00:12:20,759 --> 00:12:26,639 jobs. The top sector for job growth was healthcare. Yeah, and like 172 00:12:26,759 --> 00:12:31,480 services, right, health probably the fickleball again, yeah, getting getting people 173 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:35,440 into fix all the fickleball players. Yeah, I mean I was, I'm 174 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:37,399 thinking, like, there's that long term care though. I'm sure it's going 175 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:43,480 to continue to increase in terms of needs. Absolutely, I mean yeah, 176 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,600 with the baby boomers getting to eventually to that age of needing long term care 177 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,600 assistance and we don't have enough people there. No, they're just going to 178 00:12:50,639 --> 00:12:56,120 continuously be one of the most hiring sectors in the economy. I agree. 179 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,720 Number two, number two for job additions in June was one. You don't 180 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:03,080 want to see government. Yeah, you do not want to see more government 181 00:13:03,159 --> 00:13:05,080 jobs. It was a big jump for government, It was a big jump. 182 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:11,360 It was number two behind healthcare. Interestingly, places that lost jobs, 183 00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:16,279 the biggest job losses were in retail, which may have something to do with 184 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:22,200 the slowing economy and the stock markets going to the moon and everything is fine 185 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,240 and the world's a happy place, but that's not what's really happening out there 186 00:13:26,279 --> 00:13:28,960 on the street. Yeah. It's so funny because I mean, when you 187 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:33,320 look at inventories, that's one way to look at whether economy is doing better 188 00:13:33,399 --> 00:13:37,200 or worse. Right, If inventories are increasing, companies aren't selling what they 189 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,000 thought they could sell at the same pace, correct, right, And so 190 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,879 eventually if inventory gets too high, they have to sell the inventory for pennies 191 00:13:43,919 --> 00:13:48,879 on the dollar. Right. We saw allow of that Walmart target who really 192 00:13:48,879 --> 00:13:52,279 got overloaded in things that people didn't want during the pandemic. And a report 193 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,600 I saw last week which is really interesting was about Tesla how they beat expectations 194 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:03,600 on deliveries, but their inventors are increased because their production outpaced their deliveries. 195 00:14:03,879 --> 00:14:07,000 We're starting to see that with a lot of the electric car companies now, 196 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:11,759 where they're producing more cars than they're selling, which isn't a problem because they're 197 00:14:11,759 --> 00:14:16,720 always behind and lead times. I mean like your Mustang was what a year? 198 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,519 Yeah, I've got I've got a couple of stories about that. We'll 199 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,559 get into after. Yeah, we're just a station. The inventory picture, 200 00:14:22,639 --> 00:14:28,960 if you have a production that continuously outpaces your deliveries, eventually you have a 201 00:14:30,159 --> 00:14:33,639 huge inventory that you have to sell. And if you have to sell that 202 00:14:33,679 --> 00:14:35,799 at pennies on the dollar that then shows up on the earning statement, which 203 00:14:35,799 --> 00:14:41,240 then will lower stock prices. The company that just simply cannot keep up with 204 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:48,000 demand is Forward, and what it's doing is is striving people to other car 205 00:14:48,039 --> 00:14:52,320 dealers. They're just the Mustang Mache, which I think is a cool looking 206 00:14:52,399 --> 00:14:58,960 electric car, was six to twelve months to get a Mustang Moche Tesla about 207 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:05,600 two weeks. Tesla controls that world. So if you're going to go down 208 00:15:05,639 --> 00:15:09,799 the electric car route, why would you wait six to twelve months for something 209 00:15:09,799 --> 00:15:15,799 that is maybe as good as something you could get in two weeks. It 210 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,720 just seems like Ford needs to. In fact, I think it was Jim 211 00:15:18,759 --> 00:15:22,120 Kramer said that they're just they're working I think two shifts, and he said 212 00:15:22,159 --> 00:15:24,440 they need a third. They need to add a third shift, he said, 213 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:30,080 because the demand is not going to be there forever. The demand is 214 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,279 going to eventually go elsewhere, and people are going to go elsewhere to find 215 00:15:33,279 --> 00:15:37,840 the vehicles. The headline this week wasn't was the job's reportant We've already talked 216 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,919 about that. The market coming off the best first half for the NASDAK in 217 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:48,799 forty years, the best first half for the Semiconductor's todd Ever, July is 218 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,120 historically the best month of the year. But you have to wonder, with 219 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:56,679 the economy slowing, interest rates rising, what's left? Right? You don't 220 00:15:56,679 --> 00:16:00,000 see a lot of countalysts coming up. I mean, the only thing you 221 00:16:00,039 --> 00:16:04,200 could think of is if somehow Russia Ukraine gets resolved, and that could send 222 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,519 markets higher. But what else is there to really keep markets going? Yeah? 223 00:16:08,559 --> 00:16:14,200 I think that we went back six nine months ago and we talked about 224 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:18,039 all of the positive things that could happen, and they've pretty much all happened. 225 00:16:18,159 --> 00:16:22,559 Yeah, we're running out of positive surprises. We are going to, 226 00:16:22,639 --> 00:16:26,759 believe it or not, begin the second quarter earnings reports next week. Here 227 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,080 we go again, you know we It seems like you've just finished quarterly earnings 228 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,919 reports and here they come again, because companies spread them out so far. 229 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,799 But I think we get the banks late next week. That'll be on the 230 00:16:37,519 --> 00:16:44,639 calendar, of course of Wednesday, before the open. CPI got another one 231 00:16:44,679 --> 00:16:48,440 coming. I think the interesting thing about that jobs report today though, is 232 00:16:48,639 --> 00:16:52,360 how much different, and you alluded to it, how much the divergence was 233 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:56,639 on the ADP which came out on Thursday, and ADP if is a payroll 234 00:16:56,679 --> 00:17:00,720 provider, and so they just use their data feed and published this report, 235 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:06,400 whereas the government, who knows how they actually come up with their numbers. 236 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:11,519 And I'm sure it's legitimate, right, but the idea do not doubt the 237 00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:15,880 government ever. You're listening, So the two being so divergent, you start 238 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,640 to think, well, why right, And the only thing I was able 239 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:25,200 to find is something about their seasonally adjusted factors and so whatever calculation that they're 240 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:30,920 putting into their their report ADP, it made them almost double the amount of 241 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:36,240 jobs created compared to the government report. It's just really surprising to see such 242 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,400 a big divergence there, and you start to think, well, which one 243 00:17:38,519 --> 00:17:42,039 should I be looking at? Most people do look at the government, true, 244 00:17:42,319 --> 00:17:48,160 right, but because the ADP is more of a newer the last fifteen 245 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,720 years it's been around. Yeah, it's also frequently inaccurate. Yeah, that's 246 00:17:52,759 --> 00:17:56,839 another problem with that report, and it just to reiterate. On Thursday, 247 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:02,039 ADP said four hundred and ninety seven thousand new jobs were created in June, 248 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:06,359 and on Friday the government said two hundred and nine thousand. That's a fairly 249 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,720 see if you get a difference five hundred thousand versus two hundred thousand, right, 250 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,960 So somebody's got it wrong. And I don't know how much health that 251 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:19,279 is. We saw the Federal Reserve is trying to slow the economy and they 252 00:18:19,279 --> 00:18:23,200 will be successful. Hopefully they don't go so far that they break something, 253 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:30,440 but they've been known to do that. We didn't hear that manufacturing activity in 254 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,680 the US declined for the seventh time in the last eight months and is now 255 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,759 at a level that we have not seen since the middle of the pandemic. 256 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,519 Yeah, it's not looking good for the manufacturing, but the services continues to 257 00:18:41,519 --> 00:18:47,119 stay pretty elevated. Yes, yep, you know the services be expectations and 258 00:18:48,519 --> 00:18:52,759 you have any ideas why the services is keeping The only thing I can think 259 00:18:52,799 --> 00:18:56,480 of is people are still traveling a lot, a lot. I mean, 260 00:18:56,519 --> 00:19:00,640 I know, I've twenty people that are in Europe right now that I know, 261 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:06,160 um and and that's not going to affect the US services sector obviously, 262 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:10,680 But if people are traveling to Europe, then they're certainly traveling domestically, right, 263 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,200 So maybe people aren't buying those big ticket home items anymore, right, 264 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,720 because they probably bought them all up in the pandemic, and now they want 265 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,400 to spend that money on services things like travel, right right, someone said 266 00:19:21,519 --> 00:19:27,039 said that they they've gone from things to experiences. People's people spending has has 267 00:19:27,079 --> 00:19:32,480 moved from buying things to experiences. Looks like that's the case, and that's 268 00:19:32,519 --> 00:19:37,640 that would be reflected in the service sector. China just continues to slow down, 269 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:42,240 continues to struggle. The world's second largest economy, manufacturing services slowed in 270 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:48,440 June. Business competence hit an eight month low. Um the US is going 271 00:19:48,519 --> 00:19:52,079 elsewhere. Many companies in the US are going elsewhere for their manufacturing, for 272 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:57,640 their products, and China is feeling it. If we want to have a 273 00:19:57,759 --> 00:20:03,359 global war with them, we can win that war. We just simply need 274 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:08,680 to move manufacturing into other places. Mexico would be a good choice and a 275 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,400 buoy their economy so that half of the country doesn't want to live here, 276 00:20:12,039 --> 00:20:18,319 or just put two of our aircraft carriers on their coasts and that'll take care 277 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:19,920 of us. Just sit there, home, Just let him sit there. 278 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,519 It is interesting because they talk about Taiwan a lot, and you know, 279 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,839 and my apologies to historians, okay, because we have a limited amount of 280 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,519 time, But for twenty years, the Chinese War fought for control of China. 281 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,359 The two factions. In nineteen forty nine, the Communist People's Republic of 282 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:44,119 China, which is the current government, forced the losing Republic of China forces 283 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,640 to flee to Taiwan. And they went over to Taiwan to go good, 284 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,319 good bye, good riddence. You just stay over there in the stupid island, 285 00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:53,960 and we're gonna go here. Well, then guess what happens. They 286 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,799 started making the island into a pretty good economic power. They start making money, 287 00:20:59,799 --> 00:21:03,279 they start selling things. They said, so now the Chinese, now, 288 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,680 the Chinese, who have never had any interest in Taiwan, have never 289 00:21:06,759 --> 00:21:11,640 had ownership interest of Taiwan. It was a place where the losing, the 290 00:21:11,759 --> 00:21:15,359 loser of the war went in exile. Right, good, good riddance, 291 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,119 right now, all of a sudden, wild, it's ours. It's always 292 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:22,359 been part of ours. We want that, you know, it's like little 293 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:27,279 kids there. So anyway, Chinese Communist Party was for decades perfectly content to 294 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:32,839 let those losers do whatever they wanted on Taiwan. And we saw what democracy 295 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:37,279 can do for an economy. I was reading the article, I thought, 296 00:21:37,279 --> 00:21:40,680 you know, China has no more claim to Taiwan than Russia does to the 297 00:21:40,799 --> 00:21:44,920 Ukraine. I mean the Ukraine used to be part of Russia, right, 298 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,400 well, yeah, and so how does how does Russia say the Ukraine is 299 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,799 ours, We're going to take it back, and how does China say Taiwan 300 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:56,079 is ours? Comparing the two, because I mean the Russia Ukraine was actually 301 00:21:56,119 --> 00:22:00,599 part of Russia at one point, right where Taiwan never it was part of 302 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,519 China, although I think probably when when And again my apologies to historians, 303 00:22:03,519 --> 00:22:07,119 because there's somebody setting out there screaming at their radio. Um, you idiots. 304 00:22:07,279 --> 00:22:11,160 Um. The bottom line is that that Taiwan is where the losers of 305 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:17,759 the China War went in exile and thank thank goodness and goodbye, and now 306 00:22:17,799 --> 00:22:21,680 that it's become a pretty good economic power, all of a sudden, China 307 00:22:21,759 --> 00:22:26,279 wants to lay claim to it and have it back. Right. I think 308 00:22:26,319 --> 00:22:30,039 at one point Japan was in control of China and Taiwan. At one point, 309 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,799 Japan was quite a power before World War Two. But anyway, that's 310 00:22:34,839 --> 00:22:40,240 that I digress. I was I was studying about Taiwan and trying to figure 311 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:45,000 out how China thought that that Taiwan is theirs and reading about it is hard 312 00:22:45,039 --> 00:22:49,720 to understand. Well, we don't have to worry because we have Jannet Yellen 313 00:22:49,799 --> 00:22:52,480 over there helping us out. Well, that's it. That's it really makes 314 00:22:52,519 --> 00:22:55,799 you feel good because you're gonna go over there and meet with them and talk 315 00:22:55,839 --> 00:23:00,200 to them and settle everything down and Aunt b Yeah for sure, and he's 316 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,119 gonna make it all good. Remember that you probably never saw the Andy Griffith 317 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:07,799 Show because you're a young guy, that Landy Griffith show. That's that's Janet 318 00:23:07,839 --> 00:23:11,799 Yellen and she's a brilliant woman. I don't take anything away from her. 319 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,559 Not trying to make fun of her. I'm just she looks and acts like 320 00:23:14,599 --> 00:23:21,119 Hampy. That's just from from all reports to regardless of your politics, she 321 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,400 she's a brilliant woman. He may not agree with what she says, what 322 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,480 she does, but that doesn't take away from from her. We have a 323 00:23:29,519 --> 00:23:33,200 couple of guests coming on today. We have Anthony Figarola from Heartland Insurance, 324 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:37,039 one of our favorite guests. Um every time Anthony's on, we get calls 325 00:23:37,079 --> 00:23:42,279 and I'm always happy to refer people to Anthony for and insurance companies right now, 326 00:23:42,279 --> 00:23:47,319 are really taking advantage of people. I insurance companies don't want you to 327 00:23:47,319 --> 00:23:51,839 call Anthony. No, they're very good at They're way better at collecting premiums 328 00:23:51,839 --> 00:23:55,160 than they are paying claims. Oh yeah, they're in the business of collecting 329 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,279 premiums. Anyway, Anthony's going to be here, and then John Sabellia, 330 00:23:57,319 --> 00:24:00,160 our attorney, is going to be on. John has a segment for us, 331 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,319 So we look we look forward to hearing from them, and we appreciate 332 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,039 your listening to us. I mean, it's a one hundred and six hundred 333 00:24:07,039 --> 00:24:10,240 and seven degrees out there. What else you gonna do? Right? You 334 00:24:10,279 --> 00:24:12,880 got to sit in the house and do something. Yeah, there's no football 335 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:17,319 on, so you got to turn on the Money Matters radio show dog days 336 00:24:17,319 --> 00:24:19,039 of summer, and we're glad you did, and we look forward to talking 337 00:24:19,079 --> 00:24:22,480 to with you after this break. We'll be back in a few seconds or 338 00:24:22,519 --> 00:24:30,839 a few minutes actually with Anthony Figaroa. Thank you say it's all welcome back 339 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,440 to the Money Matters Show. It's July ninth. We have Anthony Figaroa from 340 00:24:34,519 --> 00:24:40,720 Heartland Insurance with us. Anthony carries the insurance for almost everyone in our office. 341 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:45,359 Actually probably almost everyone in our building, and anyone that asked me about 342 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,000 insurance I talk, I say, gotta call Anthony. He is far and 343 00:24:49,039 --> 00:24:52,960 away as good. And I won't say the best, because there are the 344 00:24:53,079 --> 00:24:56,720 great insurance agents out there, but you will not find a better insurance agent 345 00:24:57,079 --> 00:25:00,640 than Anthony Figaroa. Every time I call them, I save money on his 346 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,000 cell phone. You call me a cell phone. Any answers, what is 347 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,599 up with that? It's crazy? Anthony. Welcome, good morning, Welcome, 348 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:11,720 Thank you very much. You've got it a couple of topics. I'm 349 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,559 sorry, I didn't mean it erupt what I said. Thank you very much 350 00:25:15,599 --> 00:25:18,640 for the kind words. Yeah, they're they're true. They're true. And 351 00:25:18,039 --> 00:25:21,680 we've got a couple of things we want to talk about. I think let 352 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:26,279 me start off with the one. You and I have talked about insurance rates 353 00:25:26,279 --> 00:25:30,079 on electric vehicles. Have you noticed much difference? No, No, they're 354 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:36,839 very very comparable. Um, all the meetings that I go to from what 355 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:41,119 the insurance industry says, UM, they have all the bells and whistles, 356 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:45,000 so the safety is supposed to be far greater. They're supposed to be less 357 00:25:45,079 --> 00:25:52,440 accidentss just because um, you have all the sensors and um, and you 358 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,359 have the sensors in the gas cars too, but that's in the newer models. 359 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:03,400 But uh no, everything is uh And we've insured by far more Teslas 360 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:08,480 than any but Chevy's Fords. But I was surprised. We were all looking 361 00:26:08,559 --> 00:26:12,000 for my friends who are in the insurance industry, we were all looking to 362 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,079 see, Okay, how's this going to how's this going to vary from a 363 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,519 gas or even a hybrid, And no, they're very very comparable. Interesting, 364 00:26:19,599 --> 00:26:23,400 we know that they would be much more complicated to repair, much more 365 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:29,920 difficult to repair because of the components and the limited number of people that do 366 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,519 the repairs, that are trained to do the repairs. Right. So yeah, 367 00:26:33,519 --> 00:26:36,400 I was surprised to hear that as well. And I think some of 368 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:41,400 that has to do with the type of person who drives an electric vehicle. 369 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:47,720 It's at this point anyway, it's mostly well to do older people, right, 370 00:26:47,839 --> 00:26:51,799 I agree, And they do tend to drive a little bit more cautiously, 371 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,000 more conservatively. Maybe that's factoring in as well. You mentioned something earlier 372 00:26:56,039 --> 00:27:00,319 when you came in about wildfires, that you have home owners in Tucson being 373 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:07,279 denied coverage because of wildfires. I've not seen it in my forty plus years 374 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:11,720 in the insurance industry, I've never seen it the way it has been the 375 00:27:11,839 --> 00:27:19,720 last two years. But this year I'm getting numerous people that are have been 376 00:27:19,759 --> 00:27:25,480 referred to me because they're being canceled because they're in a wildfire area yet they 377 00:27:25,519 --> 00:27:30,480 haven't had any fireclaims. And then when I go shop the insurance with all 378 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:36,319 the companies that I write for, I'm finding two three four companies that say, 379 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,880 no, we won't quote it because they're in a wildfire area. We're 380 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,559 not talking Mount Lemon, We're not talking the White Mountains. We're talking the 381 00:27:42,559 --> 00:27:45,640 outskirts of Tucson. Yeah, it's amazing. I mean we're not We're not 382 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:52,279 talking about about how you would expect that that are actually in wildfire areas. 383 00:27:52,599 --> 00:27:56,799 You're talking about grassland wildfires. Yes, correct, Yes, grassland wildfires. 384 00:27:56,799 --> 00:28:00,400 That's amazing. So so out maybe out tank already way out in there, 385 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:07,200 West Town. I had I had an individual um out in ZIP code night 386 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,480 five seven four five, which is the Silver Bell area. It's in the 387 00:28:11,559 --> 00:28:15,480 city limits. Yeah, okay, yeah, it's in the city limits. 388 00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:18,359 And uh, I even call the company and they said, uh, it's 389 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,960 in the wildfiight area. It's just can't be. I mean, it's in 390 00:28:22,039 --> 00:28:26,720 the city limits. And uh, but I mean you're talking to somebody who's 391 00:28:26,759 --> 00:28:30,799 in Timbuctoo. They're not even in the state of Arizona. Who who determines 392 00:28:30,839 --> 00:28:34,319 where these wildfire areas are? That's a good question. I don't know if 393 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:41,799 it's the A National Bureau. I don't know if it's the insurance companies themselves. 394 00:28:42,599 --> 00:28:48,599 Um, but Arizona is not one that that is like California that every 395 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,839 year in the summertime you get the sant Anna winds and in the fires, 396 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,000 and you know, it blows blows down and it sounds like it sounds like 397 00:28:56,079 --> 00:29:00,400 the way you're saying, Anthony. You might call and four different companies have 398 00:29:00,559 --> 00:29:04,440 these people in the wildfire area. So it must be something that they have 399 00:29:04,599 --> 00:29:11,119 access to, that they all have access to. But this has never happened 400 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:18,680 in the past. Yeah, and I find it ironic that this situation that 401 00:29:18,839 --> 00:29:22,440 happened a couple of weeks ago, it was in the city of Tucson. 402 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:30,200 So again it's we're not talking Mountain Lemon, We're not talking the White Mountains. 403 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:36,640 We're not talking Flagstaff area. We're talking out of parts of Tucson. 404 00:29:37,039 --> 00:29:41,240 So if you're buying a house in the county, you may want to before 405 00:29:41,279 --> 00:29:45,079 you put it off, and you may want to check with your insurance agents. 406 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,759 Am I in a wildfirest Most definitely, because there's a huge difference. 407 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:59,759 There's a huge difference. Those companies that will quote it um they're not going 408 00:29:59,839 --> 00:30:03,559 to be the most competitive, but then they are because they're the only ones 409 00:30:03,599 --> 00:30:08,799 that will accept it. Interesting. Interesting, I've noticed personally, and I 410 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:14,359 know Todd as well, that I get my renewal bill and it's it's fifty 411 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:18,480 percent higher, one hundred percent higher. You were kind enough to help me 412 00:30:18,559 --> 00:30:22,279 search for a different insurance company and that cut the rate back to where it 413 00:30:22,319 --> 00:30:26,160 should be. In my mind, well, are you seeing a lot of 414 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:30,160 inflation? That's that's all that's it seems, That's all I'm doing is is 415 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:37,440 is clients and referrals. Because once again, in the forty plus years that 416 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:44,480 I've been an agent an agency owner, I've never seen the rates fluctuate like 417 00:30:44,599 --> 00:30:48,480 they have in the past two and a half years. I mean, you're 418 00:30:48,519 --> 00:30:56,559 having companies that have two, maybe even as many as three rate increases in 419 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:03,039 a six to nine month period. So somebody gets their their renewal offer and 420 00:31:03,119 --> 00:31:07,039 they say, my rate went up twenty five percent thirty percent. In reality, 421 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,720 that was two rating increases or three rate increases, and they're just seeing 422 00:31:11,759 --> 00:31:18,720 it because they can't raise your rate until at renewal and home is dwelling is 423 00:31:18,799 --> 00:31:22,559 twelve months, and the majority of cars or six months. And that's why 424 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:30,519 also a lot of companies who write an annual policy for automobile DAVE have now 425 00:31:32,079 --> 00:31:36,960 tailored back and have put it like a moratorium on that. No, we're 426 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,480 not gonna write twelve month policies anymore. We're going to do six really yeah, 427 00:31:41,319 --> 00:31:44,079 every six months, every news, every six months instead of every twelve 428 00:31:44,799 --> 00:31:48,039 because during the twelve month period of time, like I say, if they 429 00:31:48,119 --> 00:31:55,200 have a rate change or two rate changes, they can't increase your rate until 430 00:31:55,599 --> 00:31:57,480 your next renewal, which maybe ten months away, and they can't wait. 431 00:31:57,519 --> 00:32:00,000 They can't wait that long. It is. It's one of those things where 432 00:32:00,039 --> 00:32:04,119 we all expect prices to be going up. When I walk in a place 433 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:05,799 in it, let's price one up a little bit. I figure, I 434 00:32:05,839 --> 00:32:08,880 am, well figures you know, inflation, how much of that. It 435 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:14,359 seems to me that they're just taking advantage of that. Are there claims that 436 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:19,519 much higher than it's? Well what again? When I talk to claims when 437 00:32:19,559 --> 00:32:24,000 we go to meetings, they're all saying the same thing in that inflation is 438 00:32:24,079 --> 00:32:30,960 up. But it's not just inflation, it's it's also um the cost of 439 00:32:31,039 --> 00:32:34,839 materials. You know, wood is up over one hundred, flumbers up over 440 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,559 one hundred percent, steel metal is up one hundred and twenty percent. Well, 441 00:32:38,599 --> 00:32:43,799 that's what we that's what we repair our claims with. Here's the other 442 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,960 thing two people don't understand. I'll give you a quick example on automobile is 443 00:32:47,359 --> 00:32:53,720 so you get hit by somebody and you take your car in and that company 444 00:32:53,759 --> 00:32:57,559 has to get you a rental car dave when your car is being repaired, 445 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,880 and that repair should have been I don't know, five six days maybe, 446 00:33:00,519 --> 00:33:06,480 and now you're in your second month because they can't get parts. And when 447 00:33:06,519 --> 00:33:08,400 I say they, it doesn't matter if it's a mom and pop shop, 448 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:13,440 it doesn't matter if it's a dealership. They can't get parts. So the 449 00:33:13,559 --> 00:33:21,440 insurance company who had who had thought that they were going to pay five to 450 00:33:21,559 --> 00:33:25,160 seven days of car rental are now having to pay two two and a half 451 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:30,720 months because they have to continue giving you your car until your car is fully 452 00:33:30,759 --> 00:33:35,799 repaired. And I'm seeing that a lot, I mean a lot. And 453 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:42,119 and um, you know, I don't know who you who you blame that 454 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:50,519 on other than where they're getting their parts and and uh and it's uh, 455 00:33:50,599 --> 00:33:53,200 it's completely out of control. So so what you're saying is that whether it 456 00:33:53,319 --> 00:33:59,200 be your home or your car or whatever, you have ensured that there is 457 00:33:59,319 --> 00:34:07,639 a just viable reason to increase premiums based upon the inflation that's taking place within 458 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:12,800 the car parts, within the house part. It's definitely number the all that. 459 00:34:13,199 --> 00:34:16,480 So it isn't just them wanting to raise prices because they can. Well, 460 00:34:16,599 --> 00:34:21,039 I'm not saying that the insurance company is one hundred percent on the up 461 00:34:21,079 --> 00:34:23,679 and up having done this for forty plus years. UM, I have my 462 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:30,000 questions also that people can't can't explain to me in detail. Um. Another 463 00:34:30,119 --> 00:34:37,960 thing is they can't you it's it's I talked to body shops, repair shops. 464 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:42,920 They can't find workers. Oh yeah, yeah, I think everybody everybody's 465 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,480 looking for still for work. I mean you go to restaurants you go to 466 00:34:47,079 --> 00:34:52,920 I don't care what it is, retail. Everybody's looking for work and so 467 00:34:52,199 --> 00:34:57,679 that's delaying things too. But if that delays matters in the meantime, you 468 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:04,440 have to be compensated by the insurance company. And UH and that's definitely and 469 00:35:04,559 --> 00:35:09,280 I see it on a weekly basis because I'm very involved in claims and UH, 470 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,440 and I see that happening, I would probably say two out of three 471 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:20,360 times, that's absolutely amazing. That's really the value of calling you, Anthony 472 00:35:20,559 --> 00:35:24,559 is if one company is taking advantage of the inflation situation, you aren't just 473 00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:30,480 selling one company. That's correct, an open marketplace, that's correct. I'm 474 00:35:30,559 --> 00:35:34,440 not. I'm not what they call a captive carrier Todd that you don't. 475 00:35:34,519 --> 00:35:37,599 You don't have a choice because they can only write for that company. Right. 476 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:42,599 You're fantastic, You're fantastic agents. We love having Anthony in our lives 477 00:35:42,639 --> 00:35:46,320 and you would too. So if you'd like UH to talk to Anthony, 478 00:35:46,519 --> 00:35:50,519 give us a call five to zero five four four four nine er nine. 479 00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,719 Anthony, thanks for taking time to be with us this morning. Very much. 480 00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:58,199 We'll talk to you soon back after this break. Say it's all. 481 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:07,519 Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Todd Glick. I'm 482 00:36:07,559 --> 00:36:10,840 here with Dave Sherwood and thinks again to Anthony figure Road. It's always great 483 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:15,639 to have him on the show. Talk about what's happening in the insurance marketplace. 484 00:36:15,079 --> 00:36:20,159 Really interesting about those wildfire Isn't that weird? Or though they could have 485 00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:22,400 a home in the in the city limits and you're in a wildfire area. 486 00:36:22,519 --> 00:36:24,719 Yeah. I grew up on silver Bell, right, so I mean, 487 00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:30,000 knowing that that's a wildfire area, it's kind of surprising to hear. I 488 00:36:30,119 --> 00:36:32,559 was with Liberty Mutual and I got my auto insurance bill and it had gone 489 00:36:32,599 --> 00:36:36,440 up by a thousand bucks. Now I did. I had no accidents, 490 00:36:36,519 --> 00:36:39,239 no issues of any kind, no claims, and went to Anthony, and 491 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:45,239 Anthony switched me from Liberty Mutual to Progressive and saved me a thousand bucks. 492 00:36:45,519 --> 00:36:50,880 I went I was with a Geico and they were going to increase it probably 493 00:36:51,079 --> 00:36:53,559 one hundred bucks a month on me. And so, you know, with 494 00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:58,719 Anthony, switched over to Progressive as well, got the lower rate. Also 495 00:36:59,119 --> 00:37:02,679 just had to change my home insurance policy, got a lower rate there as 496 00:37:02,679 --> 00:37:07,440 well. So it always seems like when I call him I saved some money. 497 00:37:07,599 --> 00:37:09,320 It's amazing. Anyway, we appreciate him coming on. He's a great 498 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:14,679 guy and you'd love him. Back to the market. We saw oil prices 499 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,599 tick up two dollars this week due to Saudi Arabia and Russia say and they're 500 00:37:19,039 --> 00:37:22,400 going to keep their production cuts in place. Had a big Friday, yep, 501 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:29,159 yep. The inversion, the two year ten year inversion shrank a little 502 00:37:29,199 --> 00:37:30,679 bit. It narrowed a little bit, didn't it. Yeah, it would 503 00:37:30,679 --> 00:37:34,760 have been running and it got as high as one a little a little over 504 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,599 one percent last week. Difference. And that's again the difference between short term 505 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:43,280 race and long term rates because frankly, the market thinks that the interest rates 506 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,360 are going to be coming down as the economy slows and we go into a 507 00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:51,639 section and I know it doesn't matter, but the one year two year spread 508 00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,519 is significant. It's really surprising to see such a big jump there. I 509 00:37:55,559 --> 00:37:59,559 mean, the one years like five point four percent right now, and the 510 00:37:59,599 --> 00:38:05,920 two years was four point nine. Yeah. Yeah, the gold was up 511 00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,280 four dollars. Did I say that four dollars to nineteen twenty five? You 512 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:13,000 did not? Bitcoin did edge lower, it had that big jump in June 513 00:38:13,559 --> 00:38:19,639 um after a Fidelity in Schwab said they're going to come together and try to 514 00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:24,559 sponsor an ETF, and then a black Rock is leading the way on an 515 00:38:24,639 --> 00:38:31,440 ETF. There is no bitcoin ETF. There's a Bitcoin Futures ETF, right, 516 00:38:31,519 --> 00:38:37,239 but there is no spot bitcoin ETF. Feeling is that if that were 517 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,719 to be approved, and there are intelligent people who believe that the way they've 518 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:45,840 structured this one may lead to its approval, right. I thought it was 519 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:49,320 very interesting, not on the bitcoin topic, but on the black Rock topic. 520 00:38:50,079 --> 00:38:54,280 Larry Fink's been making the rounds around all the media areas and specifically Fox 521 00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:59,599 News. I saw an interview he was giving and he was The headline was 522 00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:05,360 he's a shame to be associated with the ESG and doesn't want investors to believe 523 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,800 that what is said that's getting done with their money is actually getting done. 524 00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:14,639 They want to disassociate themselves as much as they possibly can with ESG, even 525 00:39:14,679 --> 00:39:21,239 though they were the ones that basically created an environmental environment. Oh yeah, 526 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:27,280 environmental governmential governance. Yeah yeah yeah. I always get investing a green investing, 527 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,400 especially, and I believe morning Star is the one that actually rates your 528 00:39:30,679 --> 00:39:36,800 ESG score, which how they do that, who knows. But at the 529 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:38,719 end of the day, ESG has been on the topic a lot of people 530 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:44,079 minds. I've had countless people when they would come in here ask do you 531 00:39:44,159 --> 00:39:46,920 guys invest in black Rock? Do you guys invest with ESG? And it's 532 00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:52,280 not something we for the most part not wanting wanting the answer to be no, 533 00:39:52,639 --> 00:39:54,079 right, right exactly. Yeah, they don't want anything to do with 534 00:39:54,119 --> 00:39:58,280 it. Yeah. You know, if anyone doesn't already know, we invest 535 00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,320 based on returns, right, you know, we don't invest based on moral 536 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:05,960 issues. But it was just really interesting to see Larry Fink really come out 537 00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,320 and say listen, like, don't associate it, like I don't want this 538 00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:14,119 to be because you know, obviously Fox News being right leaning, to see 539 00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:16,679 him really make an effort out there, who knows, maybe you see a 540 00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:22,039 little bit of a tide shift. Interesting. Interesting. We saw the Regional 541 00:40:22,119 --> 00:40:25,440 Bank ETF we kr E is a symbol. The Regional Bank ETF ticked up 542 00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:30,039 another two percent last week. It's now twenty percent off of the may low. 543 00:40:30,119 --> 00:40:36,159 And the reason that we even watched that is because the regional bank solvency 544 00:40:36,599 --> 00:40:39,239 became such a major issue. Yeah, and I still think there's a you 545 00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:43,800 know, one of those canaries and the coal mines still with the regional banks. 546 00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,320 It hasn't started to sing yet. But it's the commercial real estate sector, 547 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:51,639 right. We all know commercial real estate has been taken absolute drumming since 548 00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:55,880 the pandemic, and it hasn't really gotten a lot better because even when CEOs 549 00:40:55,880 --> 00:41:00,519 of companies try to make people come back to work in work, a lot 550 00:41:00,559 --> 00:41:04,519 of them are getting kind of met with and uprising with the revolt saying no, 551 00:41:04,639 --> 00:41:07,119 we're not going to do it. And if you have your entire employee 552 00:41:07,159 --> 00:41:13,320 base saying that, you might have to you know, heat to their concerns. 553 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,079 So it's if we don't get people back in the offices. I mean 554 00:41:16,159 --> 00:41:21,320 in Phoenix, it's fascinating when I drive up there's so many office buildings completely 555 00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,480 vacant, you know, and it doesn't look like they've had vacancy in two 556 00:41:24,599 --> 00:41:29,159 years. Yeah, you know how companies aren't in the business of losing money, 557 00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,599 right, So if it doesn't work in the next three, four or 558 00:41:31,639 --> 00:41:36,000 five years, what are they going to turn these places into. And if 559 00:41:36,039 --> 00:41:37,840 they don't turn them into something, they're going to be a loss but not 560 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:42,800 going to bold those The property right A Foothills mall is being build over, 561 00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,280 right, but that's a certain type of commercial. It will be interesting to 562 00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:49,400 see what happens there. Yeah, I mean obviously the malls and the and 563 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,920 the movie theaters are a different type of story. But the office buildings you 564 00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:54,760 can do a lot with those. Yes, you don't have to demas the 565 00:41:54,920 --> 00:42:00,159 entire build absolutely, So how that gets resolved is going to be a big 566 00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,719 issue, especially at the regional banks it is. I had an opportunity to 567 00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:10,159 sell a car recently, and normally I'll trade the car in for another car, 568 00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:15,360 but the trade in I was being offered was I thought it was very 569 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:20,880 disappointing, and so I took advantage of these online companies that will buy your 570 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:27,079 car, and there are dozens of them, and I put out maybe six 571 00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:34,119 or seven request to buy my car and CarMax. The stock of CarMax is 572 00:42:34,199 --> 00:42:37,239 up thirty seven percent this year. Thirty percent of it came in the last 573 00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:42,280 ninety days. And CarMax was one of those companies that I went to. 574 00:42:43,079 --> 00:42:47,000 And this is almost going to sound like a commercial, but they were well 575 00:42:47,079 --> 00:42:52,559 above the other companies. The car needed tires and it needed a little bit 576 00:42:52,599 --> 00:42:55,960 of cosmetic body work, maybe a couple of grand Worth, and I was 577 00:42:57,039 --> 00:43:00,239 able to get low retail from them. It was Melissa, It was easy. 578 00:43:01,119 --> 00:43:05,519 I went in, they drove the car. It took maybe fifteen minutes. 579 00:43:05,559 --> 00:43:07,679 They gave me a written offer that was good for seven days, and 580 00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:12,519 I came back in with the car and the title and signed it over to 581 00:43:12,599 --> 00:43:16,280 them and they gave me a check on the spot and it was done normally. 582 00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,880 You know you're going to get the best price for a car by selling 583 00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,559 it on the Craiglist or the newspair whatever, right, not not newspairs, 584 00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:30,400 right, But but you don't have the anonymity that I wanted. I just 585 00:43:30,519 --> 00:43:35,039 wanted the anonymity. I didn't want to sell it to U Joe Doe And 586 00:43:35,199 --> 00:43:37,840 having come come back a week later, Gods a crap, you know, 587 00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:42,480 because it was a sound car, solid car, nothing wrong with it. 588 00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,880 But who knows what's going to happen in a month. So I like, 589 00:43:45,079 --> 00:43:49,679 I've always liked the anonymity of trading it in when I buy another one. 590 00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,239 Kleina mine Uh told me about CarMax and so that's why I included them in 591 00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:57,679 the mix, and uh, it was. It was really no contest when 592 00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,599 it came down to the end um between Carmacks and Carbona and some of the 593 00:44:01,679 --> 00:44:06,039 others. Can't remember their names offhand, but if you have a car to 594 00:44:06,159 --> 00:44:08,280 sell and you don't want to trade it in, you may want to give 595 00:44:08,519 --> 00:44:15,199 Carmacks a shot. You know. Did you see Meta's new Uh, I 596 00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,840 don't know what you call it? Platform and what's going on there? Yeah, 597 00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:23,159 so it's called Threads and it was created just yesterday, oh Thursday, 598 00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:28,400 And um, it's basically just a Twitter. I mean from the looks of 599 00:44:28,519 --> 00:44:30,000 it. I mean I haven't downloaded. I don't know too much about it 600 00:44:30,079 --> 00:44:34,400 either yet, but it looks like it's a Twitter. And Elon Musk has 601 00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:38,719 already said that he's threatening to sue Meta because it looks so much like Twitter. 602 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:43,280 Yes, and uh, you know they're going through. They're also going 603 00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,639 to do a cage match Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, which I'm pretty sure 604 00:44:46,679 --> 00:44:51,280 it was finalized. I'm not sure if it be talking about this, they've 605 00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:55,400 been talking a joke. Dano White got involved and he's you know, he 606 00:44:55,519 --> 00:44:59,239 said it's going to happen, and both people are really serious. Either way, 607 00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,519 It's hilarious is that they're actually gonna they may actually fight in real life 608 00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:06,079 and also in the courtroom. Who knows, maybe in the same month. 609 00:45:06,079 --> 00:45:08,039 I mean, this is just the do we live in a simulation day? 610 00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,639 I mean, what, what is what is coming to this world? What 611 00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:15,280 is it? Is this crazy or what? Hey? You know, our 612 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:21,280 client Mike sent me. Uh noticed there's a there's a huge phosphate rock deposit 613 00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:27,840 discovered in Norway recently that has enough minerals to meet global demand for batteries and 614 00:45:28,079 --> 00:45:30,280 solar panels for the next one hundred years. That's what I like to see. 615 00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:34,039 I'm no region, you know that. Yeah, yeah, well they 616 00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,079 congratulations, I'm going over there. It would be nice to have a source 617 00:45:37,159 --> 00:45:43,000 of these materials from a country other than Russia. Yeah, other than China, 618 00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,639 somebody we actually get along with. Yeah, and uh, that's enough 619 00:45:49,119 --> 00:45:53,000 enough of the Vikings minerals we need for solar panels and electric cars for the 620 00:45:53,079 --> 00:45:59,719 next hundred years. That would be very nice. Coin coin base, you 621 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:04,079 know that rebounded along with it has rebounded this year with as a bound in 622 00:46:04,119 --> 00:46:07,800 cryptocurrency stocks, up one hundred and twenty five cents, percent this year. 623 00:46:07,159 --> 00:46:13,480 Piper Sandler says, you better take profits as the increase in crypto prices has 624 00:46:13,559 --> 00:46:16,519 not resulted in an increase for trading for coin base. Isn't that interesting? 625 00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:22,599 Well, yeah, a lot of coin bases revenue comes from those smaller coins. 626 00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:27,840 They can charge a higher exchange transaction fee on them. So if you're 627 00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,440 looking at it from an exchange point of view, they want people to get 628 00:46:30,519 --> 00:46:34,679 in those really speculative coins, the ones that no one really knows about. 629 00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,920 Right, if they're not doing it, the trade trading coin is dominating. 630 00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:43,480 Okay, it's dominating the trading so in Ethereum and those are the lowest transaction 631 00:46:43,519 --> 00:46:47,239 fees and exchange is gonna get So that's that makes sense. I understand that. 632 00:46:47,679 --> 00:46:52,800 Um, you know, I wanted to bring up by don't don't leave 633 00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:57,039 this coin bas one more thing. Piper Piper says they expect the company to 634 00:46:57,119 --> 00:47:00,599 report the lowest trading volume in over two years during the current quarter or during 635 00:47:00,679 --> 00:47:05,199 Q two. Yeah, that's it just just ended. That'sually a bitcoin still 636 00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:09,119 rising at twenty five seconds. Just obviously the financial plan that we do, 637 00:47:09,679 --> 00:47:13,880 so many people are taking advantage of it right now, especially during summer when 638 00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,400 things are getting slower, it's just gone stop, non stop, of course, 639 00:47:16,559 --> 00:47:19,960 but you know when you really actually hear it from the people that it 640 00:47:20,039 --> 00:47:22,679 helps them understand where they're at, what to do, gives them peace of 641 00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:27,559 mind at night. Give us a call, absolutely free, go through the 642 00:47:27,639 --> 00:47:30,039 financial plan. You'll get it. You don't have to do business with us. 643 00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,119 We'll be right back after this break. And the summers, the summer 644 00:47:32,199 --> 00:47:35,719 is a great time to do it too, because the dog days. Yeah, 645 00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,960 a lot of a lot of people. Anyone that can be gone right 646 00:47:37,039 --> 00:47:42,280 now is gone exactly. Anyway, we appreciate you're listening to us on this 647 00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:55,079 Sunday, and we'll be back right after this break. Say it's all welcome 648 00:47:55,079 --> 00:47:59,559 back. It's the Money Matters Show on a hot weekend in the desert. 649 00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:05,039 What do you expect right July? Right, you know, and and Dean 650 00:48:05,199 --> 00:48:07,440 is still traveling. We do expect to hear his voice on the radio next 651 00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:12,320 week. And I think those of you that hex week, Yeah he's back. 652 00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,000 Yeah, I think he's supposed to be back in town on Thursday or 653 00:48:15,039 --> 00:48:20,239 Friday. A come hobbling in on his uh his with his crutches from his 654 00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:23,000 torn a cl or what we think at the torn A c L and Dylan 655 00:48:23,039 --> 00:48:27,000 will be a lot better. Huh, says he's feeling a lot better. 656 00:48:27,079 --> 00:48:30,719 So maybe maybe it's just strain, could be who knows. And Dylan will 657 00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:35,440 be back from his adventures in Kentucky with our NFL clients, and we might 658 00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:37,920 have a full crew full crew, So we're gonna have to find some place 659 00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,519 for those people to set and we're gonna be uh. Frankly, I'm enjoying 660 00:48:40,559 --> 00:48:45,119 just having you here, Toddy, because I think the listeners are they're gonna 661 00:48:45,119 --> 00:48:46,280 get old. I think they're tired of us. I thought, well, 662 00:48:46,519 --> 00:48:52,559 I know that people love Dean's enthusiasm, his opinion. We all do. 663 00:48:53,039 --> 00:48:58,039 Um. You know he I've said before that he has more passionate about everything 664 00:48:58,119 --> 00:49:01,480 than I have about anything. He's a passionate guy, got a lot going 665 00:49:01,559 --> 00:49:05,480 on. He's a very smart guy, and we look forward to having him 666 00:49:05,519 --> 00:49:07,679 back. So I want to give a summary of what the market died. 667 00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,840 Yeah, let's recap it. And DAL was down two percent on the week, 668 00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:15,679 It's still only up two percent year to day. SMP was only down 669 00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:19,480 one point one percent on the week. It's up fourteen point six year to 670 00:49:19,559 --> 00:49:23,000 day, and the NASDAC down point nine percent on the week and still up 671 00:49:23,159 --> 00:49:28,760 thirty percent plus on the year. The equal weighted, though obviously we try 672 00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,320 to point this out because so many people they failed to do so, will 673 00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:36,000 fail to realize it is the equal weighted is only up five point two percent 674 00:49:36,119 --> 00:49:40,559 year to day, more than half of the regular weighted SMP. And that's 675 00:49:40,639 --> 00:49:47,519 because those magnificent seven stocks, which is the vast majority of the S and 676 00:49:47,559 --> 00:49:51,800 P five hundred, or just bringing the all the S and P five hundred 677 00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:55,280 returns with them, where the vast majority of the equal weighted aren't performing that 678 00:49:55,400 --> 00:50:00,079 way, and so the equal weighted is only up five point two percent on 679 00:50:00,159 --> 00:50:04,440 the year. If you've got a if your investment profile is aggressive and you're 680 00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:07,760 one hundred percent in tech stocks, you could be up thirty or forty percent 681 00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:14,079 for the year. If you're a conservative person wanting dividend paying boot chip stocks 682 00:50:14,159 --> 00:50:17,320 with good dividends and low pees, you could actually be down for the year. 683 00:50:17,519 --> 00:50:22,639 Right, we talked about those dividend ETFs that diver it's huge, it's 684 00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:28,559 dramatic, and u with the CPI coming out next week, we'll see where 685 00:50:28,559 --> 00:50:31,119 the inflation's at but UM, it's pretty much a done deal. There's about 686 00:50:31,119 --> 00:50:36,440 a ninety five percent chance of a rate hike in July. UM obviously probably 687 00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,079 going to be twenty five bases points, so not a huge hike. UM. 688 00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:43,360 But then the CPI is probably going to point a lot towards the next 689 00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:46,920 meeting after that. And again we have CPI coming out Wednesday, and that's 690 00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:51,400 always a market mover. We'll see, we'll see what it does. UM 691 00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:55,400 had a want to talk a little bit about Tesla. Tesla jumped to the 692 00:50:55,480 --> 00:51:01,920 highest level since September on Monday after reporting they delivered twenty thousand more cars than 693 00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:07,199 analysts had expected. Get this, they delivered four hundred and sixty six thousand 694 00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:14,079 cars in the second quarter. Now, for comparison, Ford which is one 695 00:51:14,119 --> 00:51:19,599 of their main competitors in theory, saw production double in the second quarter. 696 00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:24,239 It doubled to thirteen thousand, five hundred vehicles, or about three percent of 697 00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:30,280 what Tesla delivered. So Ford had to double to get to three percent of 698 00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:35,239 what Tesla's doing. Every quarter. Tesla delivery two to four weeks. If 699 00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:39,599 you wanted to buy a Tesla or Leasa, Tesla afford three to twelve months. 700 00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:45,400 They've got to get that production under control. They've got to get that 701 00:51:45,559 --> 00:51:50,039 production the production level ramped up to a greater extent. They have a really 702 00:51:50,159 --> 00:51:58,920 nice lightning pickup, they have a really nice Mochi Mustang suv that are electric. 703 00:51:59,599 --> 00:52:01,519 You've got demand for those things. They've got to be able to produce 704 00:52:01,599 --> 00:52:06,920 them in the early stages. Were in the very early stages of electric vehicles. 705 00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,760 I think we'd all agree right now it seems like getting anything but a 706 00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:15,840 Tesla as a struggle. I did see a Rivian the other day, Rivian 707 00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:20,719 suv by the way, driving up Cracroft. So if you have a Rivan 708 00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,920 suv, I saw you and the Rivian pickup which I've seen driving down Cracroft. 709 00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:29,280 I don't know why I only see Rivians on Cracroft. Maybe the one 710 00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,280 person in tooth On that has a Rivan lives on Kraig Rocks. Who knows, 711 00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:38,679 I don't know. The Tesla's increasing dominance of the charging space is unbelievable. 712 00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:44,039 It's become actually almost as important, or maybe more important than the car 713 00:52:44,039 --> 00:52:47,559 itself. It's and it's no wonder that investors are wanting to buy Tesla stock, 714 00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:54,400 it's just dominating the space. Valuation Todd is ridiculous, but valuation of 715 00:52:54,519 --> 00:53:01,440 Tesla stock is always ridiculous. Tesla that rally on Monday boosted the shares of 716 00:53:01,599 --> 00:53:07,639 Rivian, Fisker or lucid Um and all of their competitors. But Tesla is 717 00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:10,760 in an is in another world for now. For now, I think the 718 00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:14,679 only thing to look out, and I said this earlier in the show, 719 00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:19,000 is their production numbers still outpaced their delivery numbers. But that's that's recent, 720 00:53:19,119 --> 00:53:23,639 that's recent. Well yeah, but they just also um lowered their price of 721 00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:29,000 their models significant, not significantly, but they they've done it twice in the 722 00:53:29,119 --> 00:53:30,360 last twelve right, and then they raised them back up. You know why 723 00:53:30,519 --> 00:53:34,320 because you have to be a certain price level to get to seventy five hundred 724 00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,239 dollar taxgram. Oh see, that's interesting. Yeah, so they cut they 725 00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:40,199 cutted a couple of thousand ago. That's below the seventy five mistake there, 726 00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:44,960 back up, That's what I mean, is like, and you said a 727 00:53:45,039 --> 00:53:46,960 couple of times like eventually anyone who can afford a Tesla, that wants a 728 00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:51,320 Tesla will have it. Yeah, right, seems like it. And then 729 00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,440 if you if they have these giga factories that are just obviously producing numbers out 730 00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:59,840 you know, uncomparable to any other companies. Ford has a good problem where 731 00:54:00,199 --> 00:54:04,400 they need to increase production to keep up with demand. If Tesla's on the 732 00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,480 other side of the problem, that is a recipe for disaster if economy slows 733 00:54:07,519 --> 00:54:13,079 down, and then again the stock is extremely pricey. Uh. You know 734 00:54:13,159 --> 00:54:17,239 Tesla's biggest rival in China, x Pang I don't obviously pronounced the x pang 735 00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:24,159 or yeah, loves it, yes, yes, And they increase their deliveries 736 00:54:24,199 --> 00:54:29,280 to twenty three thousand cars in the second quarter. Again, Tesla was four 737 00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:32,719 hundred and sixty six thousand. But I believe that company is bigger in China 738 00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:37,599 than Tesla is in China. In China, yes, yes. Interestingly, 739 00:54:37,679 --> 00:54:43,800 the Tesla Model Y, which is the suv, just earned a five star 740 00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:49,199 safety As if having sixty five percent of the market and dominating the charging space 741 00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:53,280 wasn't enough. Now their SUV earns a five star safety rating from the euro 742 00:54:53,519 --> 00:55:00,840 NCAP, achieving the highest overall score for safety of any new vehicle under the 743 00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:04,960 protocol. Wow the model why Tesla? So there you go, there you 744 00:55:05,079 --> 00:55:07,800 go. So it's It's one of those things that that it's it's hard to 745 00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:14,400 compete with them because they have had such a head start and this this do 746 00:55:14,519 --> 00:55:16,599 you want to go into this ranged anxiety thing that we were talking about. 747 00:55:17,519 --> 00:55:23,000 I've got for the last ten days full disclosure. UM. We hear a 748 00:55:23,079 --> 00:55:28,079 lot of things on the show about electric vehicles, and we get emails from 749 00:55:28,119 --> 00:55:31,199 clients that are in favor of the electric vehicles, we get emails from clients 750 00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:37,320 that are against electric vehicles, uh and and everything in between. I had 751 00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:43,000 a car that came off of lease and I had to do something else, 752 00:55:43,519 --> 00:55:47,639 and I'm now driving a Tesla Model. Why I'm doing that for I'm taking 753 00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:54,119 one for the team people. I want to know. I'm I'm a curious 754 00:55:54,159 --> 00:55:57,800 guy and I want to know really what you know, what's going on? 755 00:55:58,519 --> 00:56:01,119 What is good about this? Is bad about this? What? What's wrong 756 00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:07,159 with this experience? What could this? Is this for real? Is this 757 00:56:07,159 --> 00:56:12,639 going to replace internal combustion engines? So for the last ten days, I've 758 00:56:12,679 --> 00:56:16,400 been driving this model Why and I want it up front. I want to 759 00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:22,519 say it has been a spectacular experience. I have never driven a car that 760 00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:27,960 is more fun. It's rides great, it is so fast, which we 761 00:56:28,039 --> 00:56:31,360 all know that about electric cars. It is so fast it's scary um and 762 00:56:31,679 --> 00:56:37,239 and it's as well appointed a lot of electronics, um, really really nice 763 00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:44,519 stuff. With that said, the primary issue to me right now seems to 764 00:56:44,599 --> 00:56:51,239 be range RGE, the range of the vehicle. When you get range numbers 765 00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:55,480 from these companies, what you're getting is how far the car will go on 766 00:56:55,719 --> 00:57:01,119 one charge in perfect, perfect conditions. And when they give you these range 767 00:57:01,199 --> 00:57:07,559 numbers, they're talking about driving sixty five miles an hour with no air conditioner, 768 00:57:07,039 --> 00:57:14,360 no radio, no lights, and temperatures under eighty five degrees and flat 769 00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:19,679 road, flat road, absolute optimal conditions. So to give an example, 770 00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:22,360 my Tesla model, why is a three hundred and thirty mile range? I 771 00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:25,440 said, well, that's that's nice, right. You turn on the air 772 00:57:25,559 --> 00:57:31,119 conditioner, you lose seventeen percent statistically, that's that's a fact in normal weather. 773 00:57:32,519 --> 00:57:37,599 While in any weather you go faster than sixty five, you lose range. 774 00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:43,840 If it's hotter than eighty five, you lose range. Wells what I'm 775 00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:47,239 saying with AC it's going to work harder in hotter Chursen's compared cooler r and 776 00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:52,199 you and I both know that if we're going to drive to Phoenix, you're 777 00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:55,760 going to be driving seventy five eighty miles an hour. At least, you're 778 00:57:55,800 --> 00:58:00,360 going to have the air conditioner on. It is generally going to be more 779 00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:05,079 than eighty five degrees outside, and all of these things suck at the power 780 00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:12,679 to where the range of these vehicles is dramatically less than what is advertised. 781 00:58:13,639 --> 00:58:19,840 The Tesla model why advertises three hundred and thirty miles of range air conditioned. 782 00:58:20,039 --> 00:58:22,320 And I have a little bit about lead foot, I have to admit, 783 00:58:22,119 --> 00:58:27,719 so driving like a little late an the way to churches, like it likes 784 00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:31,440 that better than it likes me. All of these does, right? Yea, 785 00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:36,960 all of the all of these things come into play. So you're losing 786 00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:42,360 range because of your AC. So make a long story short, three hundred 787 00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:46,159 and thirty miles is the range I think realistically, what I'm getting is about 788 00:58:46,159 --> 00:58:51,960 one eighty. And you brought up another interesting point about charging the battery. 789 00:58:52,239 --> 00:58:54,320 Yes, yes, and let's let's go. Let's go with this. So 790 00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:58,920 it's let's say, let's say my range is really one eighty in the real 791 00:58:59,039 --> 00:59:04,039 world, I drive to Phoenix and I've got to stop and charging Phoenix to 792 00:59:04,159 --> 00:59:10,639 get home. Charging is interesting. I thought the higher the charger, the 793 00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:15,360 faster it would charge. In other words, there's a seventy five kilowatt chargers 794 00:59:15,480 --> 00:59:20,480 up at Line Cantata. There's two hundred and fifty kilowatt chargers over at Orange 795 00:59:20,519 --> 00:59:24,719 Grove in the freeway. Interestingly, I'm at the two hundred and fifty kilowatt 796 00:59:25,079 --> 00:59:30,719 chargers and I'm getting about sixty kilots a charge. Why, I have no 797 00:59:30,800 --> 00:59:32,840 idea. There's four other cars. There are five other cars there at the 798 00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:37,199 bank of I think sixteen chargers. I guess they're sucking some of it, 799 00:59:37,239 --> 00:59:43,280 but I don't know. But it took me fifteen minutes five zero to charge, 800 00:59:43,559 --> 00:59:46,119 to go from forty percent charge to one hundred percent charge. Now, 801 00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:51,960 the other interesting part is these electric vehicles. To preserve the battery, they 802 00:59:52,039 --> 00:59:54,719 don't want you to charge more than ninety percent unless you're going on a trip. 803 00:59:54,920 --> 01:00:00,239 What's the normal battery life for three Kessler tees it for three hundred thousand. 804 01:00:01,239 --> 01:00:05,239 Yeah, so's that's not a issue, not a sue. But they 805 01:00:05,280 --> 01:00:07,280 don't want you to charge greater than ninety percent, and they don't want it 806 01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:13,360 to fall below twenty percent. So if your range is one hundred and eighty 807 01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:16,760 miles, like I'm saying mine is, and you keep it between twenty and 808 01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:21,519 ninety, now you're only getting seventy percent of that. Yeah, right, 809 01:00:22,119 --> 01:00:24,639 So now you know, like we're one thirty five, that's your range before 810 01:00:24,719 --> 01:00:30,119 you go, before you're down to twenty percent. Anyway, make a long 811 01:00:30,239 --> 01:00:32,559 story short. I love it. I love the cars so much fun. 812 01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:37,480 But I think what you need is you need to have you need to approach 813 01:00:37,519 --> 01:00:39,440 it on the basis of it being your town car. That doesn't mean it 814 01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:45,199 can't take trips, because I've read about trips or five thousand miles. I've 815 01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:49,599 got friends that have driven over from San Diego. Here's the problem. If 816 01:00:49,639 --> 01:00:52,360 you go to San Diego, you have to stop and heal a ben and 817 01:00:52,559 --> 01:00:55,559 charge. You have to stop in Yuma and charge, and you have to 818 01:00:55,639 --> 01:01:00,760 stop in El Centro and charge because you're going to be going up the mountains 819 01:01:00,519 --> 01:01:05,239 to San Diego, and the mountains suck your battery dry. So you've got 820 01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,360 to make three stops, each one of them a minimum of thirty minutes. 821 01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,880 Sy're adding an hour and a half to two hours to your trip. Can 822 01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:15,920 it make it, absolutely absolutely, it can make it. But if I 823 01:01:15,039 --> 01:01:21,840 think that I'm much more comfortable having an internal combustion engine when I go visit 824 01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:25,280 my daughter in Orange County, or a hybrid yeah, or a hybrid, 825 01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:29,400 yeah, I agree, Or a hybrid. The all electric thing is is 826 01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:34,039 a lot of fun. If you, I will say this, if you 827 01:01:34,199 --> 01:01:38,079 don't take it out of town and you have a charging station in your garage, 828 01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:43,400 you'll never have more fun with a vehicle than these things. These are 829 01:01:43,599 --> 01:01:46,920 blast yeah, But that's but it does have limitations. And I feel like 830 01:01:47,039 --> 01:01:53,000 I feel like I can kind of somewhat intelligently talk about it. Would I 831 01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:58,440 a month into it? Would I? Would I renew it? If three 832 01:01:58,519 --> 01:02:00,880 years from now? I don't know, right? Just been it? Probably 833 01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:02,679 not right? Just man, I probably am. I don't think so. 834 01:02:04,239 --> 01:02:09,239 But the ride and the power is addictive. The power is really addictive. 835 01:02:09,719 --> 01:02:15,079 Um. And it's not just trying to show off or trying to beat a 836 01:02:15,119 --> 01:02:19,159 corvette off the line, which you can do with easily. UM. It's 837 01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:24,159 it's being able to uh get in in an opening, like if you have 838 01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:28,519 a heavy traffic and there's just a small open, you just punch a You're 839 01:02:28,559 --> 01:02:30,920 in there, you're in the you're you're in the opening move in the same 840 01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:34,800 speed as the other cars, just literally within seconds. Um, that's kind 841 01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:37,800 of addictive. I'm gonna have hard You also don't use the break at all. 842 01:02:38,760 --> 01:02:42,960 Um, it's I think it's what they call recumbent recumbent breaking, where 843 01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:45,719 you you let up on the gas and it and the break comes on. 844 01:02:45,199 --> 01:02:50,480 The breaks are guaranteed for the life of the car because you don't ever use 845 01:02:50,519 --> 01:02:53,800 them. No if you I'm sure this is boring many of you, and 846 01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:59,400 I apologize for that, but we've talked so much about electric cars in Dean's 847 01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:01,840 absence because he doesn't like to talk about him, although his wife wants one 848 01:03:04,079 --> 01:03:07,800 full disclosure. Um, it's it's a lot of fun, but there are 849 01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,559 limitations, and uh, you need to know them. I think if you're 850 01:03:10,559 --> 01:03:15,199 going with your eyes wide open. I did not had I known all of 851 01:03:15,280 --> 01:03:19,000 these things, would I have gone ahead and had gotten one. I just 852 01:03:19,079 --> 01:03:22,199 took a three year lease, and at least because I don't know what's going 853 01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:25,559 to happen with technology three years from now, This technology may be completely different, 854 01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:30,320 right, I mean, and I'm stuck with a old car with an 855 01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:32,840 old battery like a three year old cell phone. Who knows when I have 856 01:03:34,599 --> 01:03:37,920 fusion or fission cars? And who knows in years? Who knows pletely different 857 01:03:38,039 --> 01:03:42,280 technology? Yeah, exactly, And it makes makes sense to lease it right 858 01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:46,079 now because you know it's the technology is going to be different week and it's 859 01:03:46,119 --> 01:03:51,440 not a if it's it's just a win. Yeah. I feel like I 860 01:03:51,519 --> 01:03:53,719 can talk intelligently about it, which is what You've done more research than anyone. 861 01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:58,199 I know. That's what I wanted to know because I hear so much 862 01:03:58,280 --> 01:04:00,719 on both sides. I really wanted to be able to talk intelligent lay one. 863 01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:03,000 Um, I think one of the things that I keep you know, 864 01:04:03,079 --> 01:04:06,039 oh, it's going to soaked up powered grid, right, we don't have 865 01:04:06,159 --> 01:04:12,039 enough power for all these electric cars. And then Ron our listener, Ron 866 01:04:12,159 --> 01:04:16,079 says, you know your car's charging in the middle of the night when nobody's 867 01:04:16,159 --> 01:04:20,199 using the power grid, And that's like, oh yeah, like kings on 868 01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:24,679 right, right, Yeah, you're right, that's true. Right, So, 869 01:04:25,199 --> 01:04:29,840 um, you can actually program the car to charge between one and five 870 01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:32,159 in the morning, right, And so when the electric rates are low and 871 01:04:32,199 --> 01:04:36,679 there's nobody using the grid, away we go. And it's nice with the 872 01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:40,559 lectric car. You don't have to worry about oil changes, right, you 873 01:04:40,599 --> 01:04:44,360 don't have to worry about a lot of the servicing you would with a normal 874 01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:49,400 car. But with that comes other sure, and it's cost effective obviously, 875 01:04:49,840 --> 01:04:54,079 especially if you have it in your house. If you're using the Tesla superchargers, 876 01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:57,440 they can be a little bit. I charged from thirty to one hundred. 877 01:04:57,559 --> 01:05:00,800 It was twenty bucks, So you know that was twenty bucks for a 878 01:05:00,960 --> 01:05:04,320 tank. Yeah. Full. If you're charging at home, I'm told it 879 01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:10,199 can be twenty to twenty five dollars a month on your electric bill. No, 880 01:05:10,679 --> 01:05:14,599 but again it has limitations, um Eli, Lily, excuse any biogen. 881 01:05:14,679 --> 01:05:18,119 On Thursday, the FDA approved the company's Alzheimer's treatment. But that's that 882 01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:24,000 to me is really good news. This is seen as a pivotal decision in 883 01:05:24,159 --> 01:05:29,320 that in that it's todd it's expected to expand access to these expensive drugs for 884 01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:33,760 older Americans because Medicare said once the FDA approved the drug, they'll cover it. 885 01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:38,280 Yeah, but I also heard this drug isn't that effective. It does 886 01:05:38,360 --> 01:05:45,079 slow Alzheimer's, but it's not like it doesn't do what it actually says. 887 01:05:45,079 --> 01:05:46,280 It's gonna do well, it's not gonna cure it, right, right, 888 01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:49,039 But at this point, if you have someone with Alzheimer's, if you could 889 01:05:49,079 --> 01:05:51,880 slow it by six months to a year, wouldn't you do that? Right? 890 01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:57,239 But when you say Alzheimer's drug, you don't think you think it's going 891 01:05:57,280 --> 01:06:00,519 to solve it. Not. Yeah, yeah, it's not or not yet. 892 01:06:00,000 --> 01:06:05,199 Eli Lily has a competing Alzheimer's drug that's likely to get FDA approval. 893 01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:10,880 Now. Of course they have the new weight loss drug more Journal, which 894 01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:14,880 is supposed to be all that stock has moved up forty percent in the last 895 01:06:14,880 --> 01:06:17,559 twelve but you know, Eli Lily is now the largest drug company in the 896 01:06:17,639 --> 01:06:23,239 world by market value. Eli Lily. You never guess that. However, 897 01:06:23,320 --> 01:06:26,920 I try not to think too much about the size of pharmaceutical companies. Really, 898 01:06:27,519 --> 01:06:30,039 you got you. It depresses me like a pharma hater. I am 899 01:06:30,119 --> 01:06:33,639 a little bit. Okay, whatever, it's no older first night chere for 900 01:06:33,679 --> 01:06:36,679 pharma. Well, you know, at the end of the day, though, 901 01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:41,920 let's be real, their their profit makers. They are they are you 902 01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,679 know, they seem to do pretty well. First incentive is not to necessarily 903 01:06:45,559 --> 01:06:47,920 do what they say they do. It's to make money. Well, I 904 01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:51,239 think major major corporations in general of that, which is why three a M 905 01:06:51,519 --> 01:06:56,400 breathe a sigh of relief when they get their ten billion dollars settlement. Oh 906 01:06:56,519 --> 01:07:00,280 that's it, Okay, we can have that ten billion dollars. Yeah, 907 01:07:00,679 --> 01:07:04,159 it's crazy. Lily stock is You know, if you wanted to have a 908 01:07:04,280 --> 01:07:09,840 drug stock that probably has more going on than any other drug stock, it 909 01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:14,760 would be Eli Lily. But the stock has trained it at five times the 910 01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:19,000 value of Murk and Feiser. It's very pricey from a valuation point of view. 911 01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:24,639 Funny thing this past week. One of the big stories is past this 912 01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:30,039 week was Progosian in Russia, the head of the Wagner Group, and they 913 01:07:30,119 --> 01:07:32,719 made the march on Russia and then you know, he called it off and 914 01:07:32,760 --> 01:07:36,519 Putin says, okay, you're fine. Whatever. Anyways, Putin's trying now 915 01:07:36,599 --> 01:07:42,480 to be to become the strong man again after looking like a little girl there 916 01:07:42,519 --> 01:07:48,079 for a while. His role as the strong dictator was really damaged by this 917 01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:53,719 march on Russia or march on Moscow. And so they rated Progosian's house. 918 01:07:53,800 --> 01:07:57,519 That's one thing they did. Do We hear all the time about the US 919 01:07:57,599 --> 01:08:00,559 dollars, especially people that are trying to sell you a bit going trying to 920 01:08:00,599 --> 01:08:03,559 sell your gold. They want to think that the US dollar is being replaced 921 01:08:03,599 --> 01:08:08,760 by other currencies. Is a thing of the path. We know Todd that 922 01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:12,440 eighty eight percent of all cash transactions in the world are still in dollars. 923 01:08:12,679 --> 01:08:16,640 Eighty eight percent now it's eighty eight It's down four percent though, down four 924 01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:21,720 percent from forty from forty years ago. But was interesting when they showed the 925 01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:28,960 picture the Putin invaded Progosian's house in his office, and they found a hundred 926 01:08:29,720 --> 01:08:35,039 million dollars, one hundred million dollars. And guess what they weren't one They 927 01:08:35,119 --> 01:08:39,960 weren't end they weren't rubles. They were if you look at the picture, 928 01:08:40,399 --> 01:08:45,760 they were US greenback dollars. That this head of the Wagner Group, one 929 01:08:45,800 --> 01:08:54,960 of Putin's former closest friends and allies, one of his partners and a dictator 930 01:08:55,039 --> 01:08:58,439 on his own if you will, has got his house full of US dollars. 931 01:08:58,760 --> 01:09:01,039 Yeah, if you ever looked at a drug, what kind of currency 932 01:09:01,279 --> 01:09:03,720 do they have? Yeah? I don't think they're probably do have an Indian 933 01:09:04,439 --> 01:09:11,000 or even I mean very they're going to be the thing that is transferable the 934 01:09:11,159 --> 01:09:14,720 most everywhere in the world. Yeah, that's US dollars. It's not even 935 01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:19,439 close. And to have the idea that people need to realize what truly backs 936 01:09:19,479 --> 01:09:26,359 a currency in a fiat setting is it's military. And we have the strongest 937 01:09:26,399 --> 01:09:29,600 military in the world. Yeah, and if any if there's any real threat, 938 01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:32,239 all we do is we take one of our big navy ships, put 939 01:09:32,319 --> 01:09:35,800 it on that coast, and we say, either reverse what you did or 940 01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:39,600 there's gonna be problems. And most of the time the country reverses what they 941 01:09:39,640 --> 01:09:43,640 do and they stay on the US dollar system. The only way the US 942 01:09:43,720 --> 01:09:49,119 dollar truly could have a threat is if our military doesn't continue to get stronger. 943 01:09:49,239 --> 01:09:53,680 And as we saw last year in our defense budget, it continues to 944 01:09:53,800 --> 01:09:58,920 increase. We continue to increase our military strength throughout the world. I don't 945 01:09:58,960 --> 01:10:02,520 think there's any worry about our currency going anywhere. No, you hear so 946 01:10:02,720 --> 01:10:09,439 much of this from people who stand to benefit from others thinking that there's a 947 01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:13,479 problem. Right again, bitcoin and gold, and that's like we hear all 948 01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:15,359 the time, like they're giving all this money to Ukraine, They're not giving 949 01:10:15,439 --> 01:10:19,159 anything. Those are loans, right, and they have to be repaid back. 950 01:10:19,279 --> 01:10:21,640 Right in theory, those are loans and hopefully we'll get them back at 951 01:10:21,720 --> 01:10:26,319 some point and whether it be through actual dollars or through commerce. You know, 952 01:10:26,399 --> 01:10:30,880 that is the wheat center that isn't them. I'm missing the fertilizer center. 953 01:10:31,119 --> 01:10:34,880 Right, A lot of that stuff comes. That's a huge need globally, 954 01:10:35,520 --> 01:10:39,960 right. That's why we are investing so much into Ukraine. It's an 955 01:10:40,039 --> 01:10:43,920 investment, it's not a donation. It also has the largest border with Russia 956 01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:47,239 and others, which there's kind of like another really good reason they get a 957 01:10:47,279 --> 01:10:51,199 base right in Ukraine. Yeah, I mean that's really the goal of why 958 01:10:51,239 --> 01:10:55,880 we're in this in the first place. I think the stability just trying to 959 01:10:55,960 --> 01:11:00,560 say it's just that Russia would even do this is beyond comprehension. It's just 960 01:11:00,800 --> 01:11:04,560 well, it's not beyond comprehension because they are responding to what they think is 961 01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:08,800 an existential threat. If you put them yourselves in their shoes, they think, 962 01:11:09,479 --> 01:11:13,119 the um, what what's the international military? What do they call it? 963 01:11:14,239 --> 01:11:18,479 Interpol? No, not Interpol, the oh, the UN. Yeah, 964 01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:23,399 the UN. They have like a military that they call I don't I 965 01:11:23,479 --> 01:11:26,800 can't think of the word. But anyways, they did. They were approaching, 966 01:11:27,720 --> 01:11:31,880 you know, into Ukraine, and that's scared a lot of Russian military 967 01:11:31,960 --> 01:11:35,359 leaders and so from their point of view, they did see an existential threat. 968 01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:38,560 Doesn't make it right or wrong now, I think it's just I think 969 01:11:38,560 --> 01:11:41,800 it's a seventy year old Putin just trying to put Russia back together before he 970 01:11:41,880 --> 01:11:44,439 dies. But you know, it is what it is, right, doubt 971 01:11:44,520 --> 01:11:46,359 that, Yeah, that's that seems to be what what he has in his 972 01:11:46,479 --> 01:11:51,479 mind because he's not he does not seem to be on this planet. Have 973 01:11:51,600 --> 01:11:54,840 you had a conversation with him with the rest of us, because all we 974 01:11:54,960 --> 01:11:57,079 see is what they tell us. I mean, we don't know. It's 975 01:11:57,079 --> 01:11:59,319 a good point. No, that's that's fair. That's fair, that's fair. 976 01:11:59,359 --> 01:12:01,680 What we see is is what the news broadcast is. Sarah, we 977 01:12:01,960 --> 01:12:05,840 are coming to the end of the fourth segment. We'll be back with Jonathan 978 01:12:05,960 --> 01:12:11,479 Sivilia at some point here. Yes, and we thank you for joining us 979 01:12:11,520 --> 01:12:14,319 on this Sunday morning. We'll be right back after this break. Thanks again. 980 01:12:14,359 --> 01:12:21,119 This is a Money Matter show. Say it's a welcome back to the 981 01:12:21,199 --> 01:12:25,319 Money Matter Show. My name is Toddlick. I'm here with Dave Sherwood in 982 01:12:26,079 --> 01:12:31,399 our special Guests coming a regular I appreciate it. Jonathan Savilia part of Edward 983 01:12:31,479 --> 01:12:36,399 Law Firm here part of our office now not domiciled underneath our office. But 984 01:12:36,800 --> 01:12:42,800 of course today we were going to talk about S corps, right, yes, 985 01:12:42,840 --> 01:12:45,640 sir, And so first off, what is an S corp? How 986 01:12:45,680 --> 01:12:51,359 does that differ from other corporate entities? Good questions? So, an S 987 01:12:51,479 --> 01:12:59,560 corp is the term comes from sub chapters of the tax code. It's like 988 01:13:00,479 --> 01:13:05,000 it's kind of a hybrid of a corporation C corp and a partnership. All 989 01:13:05,079 --> 01:13:13,000 right, So today or this week is going to be a very special day 990 01:13:13,000 --> 01:13:16,680 because I'm gonna be filing what's called an S election. And the importance of 991 01:13:16,760 --> 01:13:21,640 an S corp is. Let's say hypothetically, you own a business and you 992 01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:28,319 report all your income on your ten forty right on your schedule C. All 993 01:13:28,359 --> 01:13:31,840 right, you're paying what's called self employment tax. All right. Self employment 994 01:13:31,920 --> 01:13:38,359 tax is basically around fifteen percent fifteen point two percent extra tax that you're paying 995 01:13:38,439 --> 01:13:44,319 every year. I'm paying that when I'm on my personal business because I haven't 996 01:13:44,359 --> 01:13:47,560 filed my selection. I haven't created an s corp. Okay, So what 997 01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:51,960 I'm doing is, I'm going to do this selection and I'll no longer be 998 01:13:53,079 --> 01:13:57,039 an owner of my business. I'll be a shareholder, so I won't have 999 01:13:57,119 --> 01:14:00,279 to pay self employment tax now, and I will be avoiding the fifteen point 1000 01:14:00,359 --> 01:14:08,600 two percent taxation on my ten forty moving forward. Now, the reason to 1001 01:14:08,720 --> 01:14:12,479 do an s corp can be many reasons. You know, the protection of 1002 01:14:12,560 --> 01:14:15,079 assets, but the big thing is to avoid taxes. You talk to any 1003 01:14:15,119 --> 01:14:17,479 CPA or you talk to any tax prepare Once you get to a certain level 1004 01:14:17,479 --> 01:14:21,399 of income, you're gonna want to file this twenty five fifty three this selection 1005 01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:29,039 because you're basically the tax return you're going to file for your s corp. 1006 01:14:29,279 --> 01:14:34,199 And the small administration that is involved with the s corp that outweighs the tax 1007 01:14:34,319 --> 01:14:39,600 benefit, all right, or the tax benefit outweighs the administration. So that's 1008 01:14:39,640 --> 01:14:44,640 why you're going to do it. So there are some rules. But I 1009 01:14:44,880 --> 01:14:46,640 have reached that level, and I say, you know, around forty thousand 1010 01:14:46,680 --> 01:14:49,239 dollars fifty thousand dollars of revenue. Once you get there, you should be 1011 01:14:49,319 --> 01:14:53,479 considering doing what's called an s corps. So you can avoid that fifteen point 1012 01:14:53,520 --> 01:14:58,119 two percent of self employment tax. Why would why would you not do it 1013 01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:01,199 at twenty thousand, Well, there's always a possibility. But then you know, 1014 01:15:01,319 --> 01:15:04,359 that's what we were talking about the administration side. So I could have 1015 01:15:04,399 --> 01:15:10,039 probably did it done the twenty thousand because I'll file my own tax return because 1016 01:15:10,600 --> 01:15:14,600 you know, when you do create an s corp, you'll you'll be create 1017 01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:18,119 filing what's called an eleven twenty suh. It's a separate tax return for the 1018 01:15:18,239 --> 01:15:23,279 business. You know, in the CPAMA charge a thousand and two thousand dollars 1019 01:15:23,399 --> 01:15:27,920 to do that. And also there's you will, as I said, you're 1020 01:15:27,920 --> 01:15:30,560 a shareholder, so now you work for the business, so you'll have to 1021 01:15:30,640 --> 01:15:35,039 take some payroll, and you know the payroll administration that may cost a little 1022 01:15:35,079 --> 01:15:40,239 bit of money too. But you know, when you're around fifty thousand dollars, 1023 01:15:40,319 --> 01:15:43,880 what's fifteen percent of fifty thousand dollars, that's seven thousand dollars in tax 1024 01:15:43,960 --> 01:15:47,479 savings right there. You know, well, obviously you know if you're taking 1025 01:15:47,520 --> 01:15:49,960 payroll, you'll have to you know, withhold a little bit of money, 1026 01:15:50,000 --> 01:15:54,920 you're gonna have some fighting fight on Social Security that you'll have to pay, 1027 01:15:55,399 --> 01:15:59,760 but you want to weigh that and pay yourself a reasonable salary and make sure 1028 01:16:00,119 --> 01:16:02,880 that you hit that sweet spot where you begin to start saving taxes. So 1029 01:16:03,119 --> 01:16:09,600 then you would receive a W two. Correct as a shareholder is a correct 1030 01:16:09,720 --> 01:16:12,760 term or for working for the business a shareholder? Yeah right, you're a 1031 01:16:12,800 --> 01:16:15,279 share old and you're one hundred percent shareholder. Now you you know, typically 1032 01:16:15,319 --> 01:16:18,359 want to be one hundred percent active. It's not something that you can do 1033 01:16:18,560 --> 01:16:24,720 passively. I have a client that I'm working with right now. He came 1034 01:16:24,800 --> 01:16:29,000 to me six or seven years ago when I was at my old large law 1035 01:16:29,039 --> 01:16:31,319 firm. He sent me a tax message. And then he's a real estate 1036 01:16:31,359 --> 01:16:34,720 agent and he's filing everything on a schedule. See, but he does his 1037 01:16:34,800 --> 01:16:38,359 own taxes, and that's the problem. He's not getting any tax advice. 1038 01:16:38,399 --> 01:16:40,800 I took a look at his tax return because we were doing some things with 1039 01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:45,000 his estate planning. He's making like one hundred and twenty thousand dollars and paying 1040 01:16:45,560 --> 01:16:50,079 almost twenty thousand dollars and self employment tax that he could avoid a lion share 1041 01:16:50,119 --> 01:16:57,760 of that just by filing his SCORP. So the fifteen percent self employment taxes 1042 01:16:58,119 --> 01:17:01,079 is over and above your income tax. Correct, So if you make if 1043 01:17:01,119 --> 01:17:05,000 you if you have fifty thousand dollars worth of income, of course I guess 1044 01:17:05,079 --> 01:17:11,079 the fifteen thousand dollars self employment tax? Would that be a deduction on your 1045 01:17:11,119 --> 01:17:14,920 return or tax credit or you do get a credit for some of the self 1046 01:17:14,960 --> 01:17:17,079 employment tax that you pay. So where do they get that number? Fifteen 1047 01:17:17,079 --> 01:17:21,560 point two percent? They get it because the I R S assumes that, 1048 01:17:23,159 --> 01:17:27,079 Okay, So the self employment tax is based off basically off payroll. So 1049 01:17:27,479 --> 01:17:31,319 in your W two, if you add up your FICA and your Social Security, 1050 01:17:31,800 --> 01:17:36,880 your Social Security and the other taxes that you pay in there, it 1051 01:17:36,960 --> 01:17:42,159 should come out to about fifteen point two percent. Medicare and social Security should 1052 01:17:42,159 --> 01:17:44,439 come out to about fifteen point two percent. So that's where they come up 1053 01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:47,199 with a social security. So you don't have a W two when you work 1054 01:17:47,239 --> 01:17:50,840 for yourself, so they expect you to pay some of that some of that 1055 01:17:50,960 --> 01:17:57,680 fight at tax. So does what does the fifteen percent include? Does it 1056 01:17:57,800 --> 01:18:01,239 include social Security and Medicaid? And okay, so that that's all included, 1057 01:18:01,600 --> 01:18:08,079 correct, So when you become when you become an s S corp, then 1058 01:18:08,239 --> 01:18:13,239 you don't need to do the Social Security So when you let's wrapped in on 1059 01:18:13,319 --> 01:18:15,039 your W two, then you're paying it through your W two. Right, 1060 01:18:15,119 --> 01:18:17,399 But isn't there are there's two parts, right, in other words, I 1061 01:18:17,479 --> 01:18:20,800 pay six point two percent or whatever, and doesn't my employer pay six point 1062 01:18:20,840 --> 01:18:26,920 two percent? Also there is a matching correct, But yeah, but if 1063 01:18:27,000 --> 01:18:30,439 you're employing yourself, you're paying the full thing. You're paying, uh, 1064 01:18:30,800 --> 01:18:35,920 the entire the employer side and the employee side the twelve point four percent. 1065 01:18:36,880 --> 01:18:43,520 So the it's interesting, So you're saying that. That's why you're saying if 1066 01:18:43,600 --> 01:18:48,479 you need to get to a certain income level before the escort makes sense economically 1067 01:18:48,720 --> 01:18:51,800 correct, And so the I arrest. The rules are you have to pay 1068 01:18:51,840 --> 01:18:59,159 yourself a reasonable a reasonable uh salary, all right. So let's say your 1069 01:18:59,319 --> 01:19:01,199 s corp, like that real estate agent, he made one hundred twenty thousand 1070 01:19:01,199 --> 01:19:06,119 dollars, all right, but he may determine my reasonable salary is sixty thousand 1071 01:19:06,119 --> 01:19:10,439 dollars because that's what I would pay somebody to do what I do, all 1072 01:19:10,520 --> 01:19:15,479 right, So he would basically be paying that fifteen point two percent on sixty 1073 01:19:15,520 --> 01:19:19,560 thousand dollars and the other sixty thousand dollars of that one hundred and twenty he 1074 01:19:19,600 --> 01:19:25,319 made that year is on O tax and self employment at self employment rates. 1075 01:19:25,800 --> 01:19:29,199 So if someone's self employed in there, not an SCORP, they should give 1076 01:19:29,199 --> 01:19:31,800 you a call correct and at least talk about it exactly, and we could 1077 01:19:31,840 --> 01:19:35,680 talk through it. We could play around with the numbers. I'm I'm there 1078 01:19:35,800 --> 01:19:40,159 because I own my own firm, so I'm going to be doing a twenty 1079 01:19:40,199 --> 01:19:44,239 five fifty three a selection. And you know, if you're working with somebody 1080 01:19:44,279 --> 01:19:46,479 that won't do it for them for themselves, I wouldn't work with that person. 1081 01:19:47,039 --> 01:19:51,119 Yeah, yeah, I said something that one of the things that are 1082 01:19:51,159 --> 01:19:56,960 two of the things that you're mostly involved with here are wills and trust and 1083 01:19:57,119 --> 01:20:01,800 trust. Someone called the other day and you and I were stand there, 1084 01:20:01,800 --> 01:20:08,720 and she said, my son needs a trust. What will you charge? 1085 01:20:09,159 --> 01:20:15,079 So someone has a relatively simple life and wants to have a living trust. 1086 01:20:15,640 --> 01:20:18,680 Is there any rough number? Does it cost a thousand? Does it cost 1087 01:20:18,760 --> 01:20:23,960 five thousand? Well? All, I mean a basic trust for a single 1088 01:20:24,039 --> 01:20:28,119 individual. And then you know with an estate plan, you know the powers 1089 01:20:28,119 --> 01:20:31,800 of attorney. Maybe there's some deeds. It could range between fifteen hundred to 1090 01:20:31,840 --> 01:20:36,239 two twenty five hundred dollars for a single individual, and then for a joint 1091 01:20:36,279 --> 01:20:42,319 trust you know, married individuals where everybody gets a healthcare and financial power of 1092 01:20:42,359 --> 01:20:47,039 attorney and a joint trust and some deeds. I think that would range between 1093 01:20:47,239 --> 01:20:49,800 three to five, but you know, usually on the lower end, if 1094 01:20:49,880 --> 01:20:55,239 especially if it's a simple estate a state plan, you know you want everything, 1095 01:20:55,399 --> 01:20:57,720 you have everything, and you wanted to go to the kids. Now, 1096 01:20:57,760 --> 01:21:01,199 if we're setting up subtrusts and generations skipping trust, as we've talked in 1097 01:21:01,319 --> 01:21:08,159 prior podcasts, you know that there might be a little bit more of a 1098 01:21:08,199 --> 01:21:13,239 fee involved because there's more drafting and more liability and more technique. And the 1099 01:21:13,399 --> 01:21:16,079 important thing to keep in mind for listeners is once you establish a trust, 1100 01:21:16,119 --> 01:21:20,439 and if established correctly, which I know John Wood for you, at that 1101 01:21:20,600 --> 01:21:25,039 point you have the Christmas tree, right, and then it's just replacing and 1102 01:21:25,119 --> 01:21:28,600 adding ornaments, which is your assets, which will change through the years as 1103 01:21:28,680 --> 01:21:32,000 they as they should. But you don't need a completely new trust exactly. 1104 01:21:32,319 --> 01:21:38,920 Yeah. I means as long as things as long as you didn't have any 1105 01:21:39,199 --> 01:21:45,840 major life changes where you know you want to remove trustees or you get divorced 1106 01:21:45,039 --> 01:21:50,039 or you have ten more kids. You know, if everything seems to be 1107 01:21:50,159 --> 01:21:54,000 the same, you know, maybe you want somebody to review it and just 1108 01:21:54,159 --> 01:21:58,239 to make sure everything's copacetic. But typically you don't need to change a trust 1109 01:21:58,600 --> 01:22:06,199 under that circumstance unless you reach those circumstances buying assets. That's when you just 1110 01:22:06,359 --> 01:22:10,199 basically need to fund the trust. You don't need to change the terms of 1111 01:22:10,279 --> 01:22:12,680 the trust unless I say, you buy a house and you wanted to go 1112 01:22:12,800 --> 01:22:16,159 to as we discussed with that one client had called the other day they wanted 1113 01:22:16,520 --> 01:22:21,319 the house to go to their one son. So all we had to All 1114 01:22:21,359 --> 01:22:26,239 you have to really do is amend to trust you and you don't have to 1115 01:22:26,319 --> 01:22:29,960 do a whole new one. Just put a small change in an article saying 1116 01:22:30,399 --> 01:22:35,199 I want Todd to get the house in uh or was it pinetop right? 1117 01:22:35,439 --> 01:22:41,079 So that's basically yet we don't have to recreate the wheel. Yeah, and 1118 01:22:41,199 --> 01:22:45,600 it's so important, and I promise you there are people listening who have accounts 1119 01:22:45,720 --> 01:22:50,640 that have beneficiaries who are no longer living, or beneficiaries who are no longer 1120 01:22:51,000 --> 01:22:57,720 a part of their life, or a trustee for their children who is no 1121 01:22:57,880 --> 01:23:01,119 longer living or is no longer part of their life. These are things that 1122 01:23:01,279 --> 01:23:08,520 we do one time and then we put them away, figuring that's done not 1123 01:23:08,720 --> 01:23:11,840 so fast. The most common is the four oh one K. Yes, 1124 01:23:12,119 --> 01:23:15,560 you just set that once and then you know who knows you leave that employer 1125 01:23:15,600 --> 01:23:19,800 and you have no remembrance of who actually has your beneficiary on that old four 1126 01:23:19,840 --> 01:23:25,319 oh one k. Those things you need to have updated and understand where they 1127 01:23:25,399 --> 01:23:28,880 are at. And I think the living trust is an easy one to put 1128 01:23:28,920 --> 01:23:30,760 aside too, because you go through all the work to get it done, 1129 01:23:30,800 --> 01:23:35,720 and they give you this notebook of the living wills and the and the medical 1130 01:23:35,760 --> 01:23:40,720 powers of attorneys and the poor overtrust and the trust document. You go, 1131 01:23:40,760 --> 01:23:42,800 oh, I'm glad we got that done, and you put it in the 1132 01:23:42,880 --> 01:23:47,399 desk. And I did mind in eighty six and about five years ago my 1133 01:23:47,560 --> 01:23:50,680 wife nagged me to the point where we had we went and redid it, 1134 01:23:51,279 --> 01:23:56,600 which makes sense because a lot of the people that we had caring for our 1135 01:23:56,680 --> 01:24:00,239 daughter or managing the money for our daughter, they're all dead, that are 1136 01:24:00,319 --> 01:24:03,640 gone, and our daughter is thirty eight years old and she doesn't need people 1137 01:24:03,920 --> 01:24:08,159 protecting her anymore. And I probably want everything to go to the grandkids, 1138 01:24:08,159 --> 01:24:10,119 at least I've gook at a portion of it. Right. You know, 1139 01:24:10,560 --> 01:24:13,319 your daughter sounds like she's a really good a good girl. It's got a 1140 01:24:13,520 --> 01:24:18,439 very successful life, and so maybe she doesn't need you know anything, if 1141 01:24:18,479 --> 01:24:20,880 you were to pass away, maybe it's time to set up the grandkids. 1142 01:24:21,319 --> 01:24:24,760 These are all things that These are all things that can be done. And 1143 01:24:25,239 --> 01:24:30,760 Jonathan has skills in this area as well as extensive skills and taxation, which 1144 01:24:30,840 --> 01:24:34,920 is unusual for an estate finding attorney. Give us a call. We'll put 1145 01:24:34,960 --> 01:24:39,079 you in touch with Jonathan. He'll be happy to help you. We're glad 1146 01:24:39,119 --> 01:24:42,560 to have him here in the office and we'll be having him on the radio 1147 01:24:42,600 --> 01:24:46,640 once again. We'll be back right after this break. Thank you say it's 1148 01:24:46,720 --> 01:24:55,159 all well again it's a Money Matters Show. Final segment. We thank John 1149 01:24:55,239 --> 01:24:59,560 to Civilia for being with us. John is domiciled in our office, physically 1150 01:24:59,640 --> 01:25:01,880 in our office. If you have needs of an attorney, especially in the 1151 01:25:01,960 --> 01:25:09,039 state finding attorney, especially in a state planning attorney, who has extensive knowledge 1152 01:25:09,039 --> 01:25:13,640 of taxes, he is really outstanding. Is a great fine for us, 1153 01:25:13,800 --> 01:25:16,399 or you know, while we were on the Escorp topics and businesses as a 1154 01:25:16,479 --> 01:25:19,039 whole. I do want to bring up the fact that I've had a couple 1155 01:25:19,119 --> 01:25:25,520 different clients bring up that they are business owners and they have a large savings 1156 01:25:26,319 --> 01:25:30,479 put away in their bank account, earning next to nothing, right, and 1157 01:25:30,760 --> 01:25:33,079 in this high interest rate environment, it really does start to make sense to 1158 01:25:33,239 --> 01:25:40,319 look in other avenues, especially when you can accomplish the same goal of preservation 1159 01:25:40,359 --> 01:25:44,000 of principle with the higher rate of interest, right, right, plus with 1160 01:25:44,159 --> 01:25:47,239 more security. And that's what we've been doing here, opening up business accounts, 1161 01:25:47,439 --> 01:25:51,560 putting the majority in a treasury ladder, the Vanguard money market Fund, 1162 01:25:51,760 --> 01:25:57,640 keeping it majority safe, and earning rates of interest that far exceed anything you 1163 01:25:57,720 --> 01:26:01,039 can see in a normal business checking account for doing nothing really other than knowing 1164 01:26:01,199 --> 01:26:04,279 us. You're insured up to one hundred million dollars by SIPIC. Yep, 1165 01:26:04,479 --> 01:26:09,800 you're insured also with treasuriescent by the US government. We're guaranteed, not insured, 1166 01:26:10,199 --> 01:26:13,600 guaranteed, right, that's even a notch above insured. Good point. 1167 01:26:13,720 --> 01:26:16,199 So yeah, we've we've done a lot of those treasury ladders, and we 1168 01:26:16,319 --> 01:26:19,319 continue to do them. I did one to day, it did one Friday. 1169 01:26:19,520 --> 01:26:23,520 I mean, these interest rates have not been this high since two thousand 1170 01:26:23,960 --> 01:26:27,439 and we're getting It's not like they jumped up and then went right back down. 1171 01:26:27,760 --> 01:26:31,479 They're giving you a lot of time to lock in. And don't don't 1172 01:26:31,560 --> 01:26:34,399 be saying, well, the highest yield is in six months, I'm gonna 1173 01:26:34,439 --> 01:26:38,279 take that, and then six months from now it's gonna be higher. These 1174 01:26:38,399 --> 01:26:42,520 rates are not going to stay here forever. Nope. So don't be shy 1175 01:26:42,640 --> 01:26:45,600 about maybe taking a little bit longer term approach with some of the money, 1176 01:26:46,119 --> 01:26:49,600 right because if people don't know, the longer dated bonds, the ones that 1177 01:26:49,680 --> 01:26:55,479 are ten twenty thirty years are gonna appreciate more in value if interest rates do 1178 01:26:55,640 --> 01:26:58,760 drop compared to a two year bond or a one year bond. Yes, 1179 01:26:59,119 --> 01:27:00,319 all right, I'm not gonna into the math of it, but just take 1180 01:27:00,439 --> 01:27:04,199 my word for it. Longer dated bonds are more volatile, right, straights 1181 01:27:04,199 --> 01:27:08,279 do job, they're going to appreciate more. And we just began on Friday 1182 01:27:08,359 --> 01:27:14,840 for the first time in years, to look at the long bond right, 1183 01:27:15,119 --> 01:27:19,039 look at investing in longer term bonds. We in March of twenty In March 1184 01:27:19,119 --> 01:27:24,199 of twenty twenty one, we went to all short term bonds the smartest thing 1185 01:27:24,279 --> 01:27:30,159 we've ever done. And then in March of twenty two, we went from 1186 01:27:30,239 --> 01:27:34,439 our short term bond ETFs and closed in funds to individual short term bonds. 1187 01:27:34,840 --> 01:27:40,479 And there was a thirty five percent decline in value in short term bonds in 1188 01:27:40,600 --> 01:27:45,520 twenty twenty two that we didn't participate in, and thank thankfully, we like 1189 01:27:45,760 --> 01:27:50,159 that portion of the accounts to be secure, to be safe, to be 1190 01:27:50,279 --> 01:27:57,039 stable. And I sat with Dean a year ago and said, you know, 1191 01:27:57,119 --> 01:28:01,319 if they start raising raised aggressively, which they did, kind of felt 1192 01:28:01,359 --> 01:28:04,760 like they might be going to go that route, this area is going to 1193 01:28:04,800 --> 01:28:10,439 be more vulnerable than the stock and that's exactly what it was. So we 1194 01:28:11,439 --> 01:28:16,279 now for the first time in many, many years, are actually considering investing 1195 01:28:16,399 --> 01:28:20,920 in longer term bonds. Thinking like Todd said that when an interest rates come 1196 01:28:21,039 --> 01:28:26,760 down, if and they will ultimately come down at some point, that there's 1197 01:28:26,760 --> 01:28:31,479 a nice ten to twenty percent pop in principal value there and the dividends currently 1198 01:28:31,479 --> 01:28:36,359 around three I think, yeah, the dividends around three, Yeah, And 1199 01:28:36,439 --> 01:28:41,319 I think it's just so important to realize with whether it's a business account of 1200 01:28:41,359 --> 01:28:45,119 personal account and say this is just your pseudo savings account using treasury ladders and 1201 01:28:45,239 --> 01:28:47,640 things like that. There, you know, we could get money to you 1202 01:28:47,800 --> 01:28:51,359 to your bank in two days. We could actually set up the account in 1203 01:28:51,479 --> 01:28:56,279 a way that you could spend directly out of the account and not have to 1204 01:28:56,359 --> 01:29:00,159 have it transferred. So in terms of liquidity, you're not giving any thing 1205 01:29:00,239 --> 01:29:02,439 up compared to a bank, but you're getting more interest, you're getting more 1206 01:29:02,520 --> 01:29:06,399 safety. It's things that a lot of people should consider. Right then you 1207 01:29:06,439 --> 01:29:13,279 should sit down and consider the financial plan with Todd and Dylan. Beyond that, 1208 01:29:13,479 --> 01:29:21,079 we have clients that we're managing who have everything from aggressive to super conservative 1209 01:29:23,000 --> 01:29:26,760 and everything in between. Guy, spend a little time on Roth conversions real 1210 01:29:26,840 --> 01:29:32,159 quick. Sure client asked me about it over the week, and I've come 1211 01:29:32,239 --> 01:29:36,720 to realize that my financial planning software has this interesting tool called tax planning. 1212 01:29:38,119 --> 01:29:42,880 And again we don't do tax planning, but it's a tool to see you 1213 01:29:43,000 --> 01:29:48,680 can model how much lifetime tax savings you could estimate based on a certain strategy. 1214 01:29:48,840 --> 01:29:54,119 Meaning say we do Roth conversions for a five year period ten thousand each 1215 01:29:54,760 --> 01:29:58,199 before R and D started, whatever the case may be. You can see, 1216 01:29:58,399 --> 01:30:00,920 okay, this is going to save me X number of dollars throughout the 1217 01:30:01,199 --> 01:30:04,479 entire life of the plan. So instead of just looking at one year, 1218 01:30:04,760 --> 01:30:08,560 which that's what many people do when they're planning for a Roth conversion, I 1219 01:30:08,600 --> 01:30:10,600 just want to make sure that I'm not in the higher bracket this year. 1220 01:30:10,880 --> 01:30:13,399 Well how about you actually look at the entire picture and see does it even 1221 01:30:13,439 --> 01:30:15,640 make sense in the first place? Does it actually save you taxes? Why 1222 01:30:15,680 --> 01:30:17,880 are you going through all this work if it's only going to save you one 1223 01:30:17,920 --> 01:30:24,000 hundred dollars? Right, So it's a fascinating tool that shows you all the 1224 01:30:24,119 --> 01:30:27,520 tax brackets as well and shows you okay, if you do a twenty thousand 1225 01:30:27,600 --> 01:30:30,479 Roth conversion, that's going to send you to the new bracket. And then 1226 01:30:30,560 --> 01:30:34,800 it even inflates those tax brackets through the years because obviously the tax brackets increased 1227 01:30:34,840 --> 01:30:40,399 with inflation through the years. It models that in the plan. So in 1228 01:30:40,600 --> 01:30:46,319 terms of planning things out for two plus years and doing distributions, qualified charitable 1229 01:30:46,359 --> 01:30:51,000 distributions, roth conversions, those things can be modeled with our financial planning software 1230 01:30:51,319 --> 01:30:56,439 free of charge. Right, So take advantage of that opportunity. We're here 1231 01:30:56,479 --> 01:31:00,439 to help anytime, and when you talk about roth conversions. For those of 1232 01:31:00,520 --> 01:31:05,319 you that don't know, a conversion from a traditional IRA to a ROTH is 1233 01:31:05,359 --> 01:31:12,560 called a roth conversion, and you pay income tax on the money you take 1234 01:31:12,680 --> 01:31:16,319 out of the IRA when you take it out and you roll it into a 1235 01:31:16,439 --> 01:31:20,399 ROTH and you then do not do not pay income tax on it again. 1236 01:31:20,880 --> 01:31:25,199 Right, So the perfect time to do that is when the market's in the 1237 01:31:25,279 --> 01:31:30,720 toilet. Right now we're up thirty percent. Probably not an optimum time to 1238 01:31:30,840 --> 01:31:32,920 do it, but the next time the market dips that you want to want 1239 01:31:32,960 --> 01:31:36,000 to kind of the back of your mind thinking, hey, those guys says 1240 01:31:36,000 --> 01:31:40,800 something about roth conversion, right. And the qualified charitable distributions, if people 1241 01:31:40,840 --> 01:31:45,840 don't know, is when you send your RMD required minimum distribution from your IRA 1242 01:31:45,039 --> 01:31:49,880 to a charity instead of taking it as income as the irs season, and 1243 01:31:50,000 --> 01:31:56,279 so you save taxes in that in a way really just the charity doesn't have 1244 01:31:56,359 --> 01:31:59,640 to pay taxes on the income. But well, it actually is from a 1245 01:31:59,720 --> 01:32:02,680 fine financial point of view, probably isn't the greatest idea ever, but it 1246 01:32:02,800 --> 01:32:09,840 makes you feel good. And what people do is they donate the required minimum 1247 01:32:09,920 --> 01:32:15,760 distribution directly to a qualified charity. There isn't then no tax on the withdrawal 1248 01:32:16,000 --> 01:32:21,159 from your IRA, but then again you do not receive a deduction for the 1249 01:32:21,319 --> 01:32:25,039 gift to the charity. That wouldn't make sense. It was a double dip, 1250 01:32:25,880 --> 01:32:28,520 no tax taking it out, but you don't get a deduction going in. 1251 01:32:28,840 --> 01:32:34,800 It's called a QCD qualified Charitable distribution. Hey, you see Costco up 1252 01:32:34,840 --> 01:32:40,399 eighteen percent this year, two percent lower on Friday. They reported US sales 1253 01:32:40,520 --> 01:32:44,359 dropped two and a half percent in June. And you look at and go 1254 01:32:44,720 --> 01:32:51,159 why gasoline prices almost totally related to gasoline prices. Their store traffic, which 1255 01:32:51,279 --> 01:32:55,800 is the better measures up three point six percent. You know, the stock 1256 01:32:55,880 --> 01:33:00,079 has a thirty eight times earnings, which has always expensive if Costco stock is 1257 01:33:00,119 --> 01:33:05,680 always expensive, just like Tesla stock, just like Amazon stock, just like 1258 01:33:05,800 --> 01:33:12,039 Apple, it's always more expensive than you're comfortable buying it. But when you 1259 01:33:12,159 --> 01:33:15,640 have a drop like we saw on Friday, where it goes down a couple 1260 01:33:15,720 --> 01:33:18,119 of percent, and that's a five hundred dollar stock, so that's ten bucks, 1261 01:33:19,359 --> 01:33:26,319 that's probably an opportunity as opposed to anything to be concerned about Disney. 1262 01:33:26,640 --> 01:33:30,199 Disney has been so disappointing this year. They have not participated in this year's 1263 01:33:30,319 --> 01:33:35,880 rally at all, but Wells Fargo named them a signature pick on Friday Todd. 1264 01:33:36,439 --> 01:33:41,960 They put the price target at one forty seven, which is sixty five 1265 01:33:42,079 --> 01:33:45,640 percent above Friday's close. Thing about Disney, which is fascinating to me, 1266 01:33:45,840 --> 01:33:51,640 is all those layoffs of those ESPN analysts and amazing commentators. Yeah, on 1267 01:33:51,840 --> 01:33:56,479 their personalities, Yeah, just jumping them like a bad habit. Yeah. 1268 01:33:56,560 --> 01:34:00,279 And I saw one of the analysts who didn't get fired. He was just 1269 01:34:00,319 --> 01:34:02,439 saying it was a crazy day and he's never seen anything like it in his 1270 01:34:02,560 --> 01:34:05,520 ten years and being an ESPN says it's a great place to work for, 1271 01:34:05,760 --> 01:34:09,840 but it can be cruel at times, which you know, well, I 1272 01:34:09,880 --> 01:34:13,359 think they went in and asked about what Tana on air personality. He's like, 1273 01:34:13,479 --> 01:34:16,079 all once, right, it's crazy. I wonder what Bob Iger's thinking 1274 01:34:16,159 --> 01:34:20,119 with that, right, I don't know what the reasoning would be. I 1275 01:34:20,159 --> 01:34:25,239 don't know. Maybe maybe that it isn't the personality that draws the viewers and 1276 01:34:25,359 --> 01:34:28,039 he can gets to have any cheaper. I mean, I think it's definitely 1277 01:34:28,159 --> 01:34:30,399 worse than when I watched eSPI a lot, right, But I guess, 1278 01:34:30,479 --> 01:34:33,640 you know, I feel like The people who watch ESPN are the people that 1279 01:34:33,720 --> 01:34:39,119 are, like, you, don't have much to do. Well, when 1280 01:34:39,159 --> 01:34:43,000 I come home from work and well that's primetime right now. But I come 1281 01:34:43,039 --> 01:34:45,319 from work, I work out, I have supper, and then I stood 1282 01:34:45,319 --> 01:34:48,760 down. The first thing to do is tryn ESPN. Why because there might 1283 01:34:48,800 --> 01:34:54,239 be something I'm interested in. It's it's certainly it's a kind of a no 1284 01:34:54,399 --> 01:34:59,600 brainer if you would. Yeah, that's prime time ting. You know people 1285 01:34:59,640 --> 01:35:01,640 that watch during the day, two pm type of thing. Oh yeah, 1286 01:35:02,039 --> 01:35:08,760 you know, eleven am, you're watching ESPN. The auto companies, Morgan 1287 01:35:08,840 --> 01:35:11,960 Stanley raised their price start. We've talked a lot about auto companies today. 1288 01:35:12,880 --> 01:35:16,439 Morgan Stanley raised their price target on four to n GM, but they kept 1289 01:35:16,560 --> 01:35:24,119 Ferrari as their number one auto company and very quietly Ferrari and their symbol, 1290 01:35:24,159 --> 01:35:29,600 I love their symbol are Ace race. That stock is up fifty percent this 1291 01:35:29,760 --> 01:35:33,640 year, Ferrari fifty percent this year. They've been killing it, doing a 1292 01:35:33,840 --> 01:35:39,840 doing a great job. The Jet Blue they're gonna end their partnership in the 1293 01:35:39,920 --> 01:35:45,239 Northeast with American Airlines. Instead, they're going to concentrate on Spirit Airlines and 1294 01:35:45,399 --> 01:35:48,840 Sweet Green. The shallow shallow chain got a nice pop on Thursday after Bank 1295 01:35:48,880 --> 01:35:54,159 America upgraded the stock to a buy. Shares are already up fifty percent this 1296 01:35:54,319 --> 01:35:58,720 year. Bank of America says, gosh, might be a good time to 1297 01:35:58,800 --> 01:36:02,079 buy that stock. I always I always struggle. I always struggle with those 1298 01:36:02,199 --> 01:36:05,880 types of things where you get an analyst that comes out after a fifty percent 1299 01:36:06,000 --> 01:36:10,000 move up and says, let's buy this, or you got an analyst that 1300 01:36:10,520 --> 01:36:14,279 after a stock that's gone in the toilet says, yeah, we've we've probably 1301 01:36:14,359 --> 01:36:16,680 we're going to change this to a cell. Anyway, We're coming to the 1302 01:36:16,800 --> 01:36:19,800 end of the show. Todd enjoyed working with you, buddy. It's been 1303 01:36:19,920 --> 01:36:25,880 nice. Next week we'll have the Greenberg's back and should be more fun. 1304 01:36:26,119 --> 01:36:28,880 Yeah our throats a break, right, Yeah, give our throast a break. 1305 01:36:29,000 --> 01:36:30,680 We all want to be happy, and of course healthy is important. 1306 01:36:30,720 --> 01:36:34,399 But a Greenberg financial, what work it was going to be, is profitable? 1307 01:36:35,199 --> 01:36:38,039 Next week, say it's all