The Fed Raised Interest Rates Again - Are You Prepared For What’s Next?

100:00:02,000 --> 00:00:06,400Good morning everybody. It's that timeagain. It's Sunday morning. It's eight200:00:06,400 --> 00:00:10,160o'clock, it's seven ninety candids tea. This is Dean Greenberg and we're gonna300:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,199bring you the Money Matter Show.We've been doing a show for a long400:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,879time, as you know, it'sbeen over thirty three years now, trying500:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,960to do the same thing over andover again. And it's amazing because I600:00:21,000 --> 00:00:25,359remember the last time the dow wasup fourteen days in a well, that700:00:25,480 --> 00:00:30,120was nineteen eighty seven, you hearme, nineteen eighty seven. However it800:00:30,199 --> 00:00:34,640was January and not July and andand all what had happened, but fourteen900:00:34,719 --> 00:00:37,920days in a wel we had todio. Now, there's good positive things1000:00:37,920 --> 00:00:42,280with it that the dial usually endsup higher after that three months later goes1100:00:42,359 --> 00:00:45,600up there. But you know what, I'm not so sure it's gonna happen1200:00:45,679 --> 00:00:53,880this time. The markets keep poweringforward and powering forward. But what I've1300:00:53,920 --> 00:00:58,719known, what I've seen over theyears, the only thing that's making it1400:00:58,759 --> 00:01:03,359goes is all the like incentive moneythat's still out there. The government still1500:01:03,400 --> 00:01:07,799has money, it's still spending money. Well, eventually that's gonna be inflationary1600:01:07,879 --> 00:01:11,799again because prices keep going higher.I don't see prices come down. I1700:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,519know on Friday the PC came down. Markets get excited. The day before1800:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,519interest rates went up, the marketdidn't like it and reversed all the way1900:01:19,560 --> 00:01:26,640down. We're in a scenario rightnow that you can stay invested, but2000:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,640I wouldn't be fully invested, andwe could be totally wrong. But you're2100:01:30,640 --> 00:01:37,920still gonna make some money. Eventually, at some time the market will fall.2200:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,200Now here's the other thing. August, September, October are the worst2300:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,359months of the year. That timeframe, whether it starts in August or2400:01:44,359 --> 00:01:48,599September October doesn't much, dude much. Maybe this year woods different. I2500:01:48,599 --> 00:01:51,760don't know. Maybe he's gonna keepgoing. So you stay with your model.2600:01:51,840 --> 00:01:57,840You never sell everything. We've beenmitigating risk, which obviously will hurt2700:01:57,879 --> 00:02:02,239a little bit, you know,but it also gives that protection from where2800:02:02,239 --> 00:02:10,479it was before. So now whatyou have is an opportunity to see pair2900:02:10,560 --> 00:02:16,439back positions that have run outside ofwhat your allocation is. If you said3000:02:16,479 --> 00:02:20,719I don't want more than five percentin a position and now it's ten percent,3100:02:21,039 --> 00:02:23,400you got to cut it back.Yes, you don't have to cut3200:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,159it back to five. That's agood idea, but maybe cut it back3300:02:25,159 --> 00:02:32,479to seven. Have some cash,learn how to mitigate risk, because at3400:02:32,520 --> 00:02:36,280Sunday, just like yesterday, whenthe market was all the way up and3500:02:36,319 --> 00:02:38,479one down, we could have gonedown another day. And then then the3600:02:39,199 --> 00:02:45,439motivation, the mental part of it, everything changes and then the selling comes3700:02:45,479 --> 00:02:47,800in, and then the computers hitthe selling phograms and next thing you know,3800:02:47,879 --> 00:02:52,960you're down five to six seven percentand you're like, wow, what3900:02:53,039 --> 00:02:55,400happened? And you need cash todo in the Other thing is, I'm4000:02:55,439 --> 00:03:00,719going to talk about this later,a little later on, is that there's4100:03:00,800 --> 00:03:05,479always opportunities. The guy's coming tome this week. You know, we4200:03:05,599 --> 00:03:07,639just got in some new money.What are we gonna do where we're looking4300:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,280one of the stuff. There areopportunities, And I'll tell you what those4400:03:10,280 --> 00:03:15,080opportunities are and how we look atthem and why we're looking at them that4500:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,560way. This is the money amountof show, as you know, and4600:03:17,599 --> 00:03:22,479it is brought to you by GreenbergFinancial Group. Greenberg Financial Group is a4700:03:22,479 --> 00:03:28,159broken dealer and a registered investment advisoryregistered with the SEC. The members of4800:03:28,199 --> 00:03:32,639Finer and the members of SIPPIC onthe show. We always talk about different4900:03:32,680 --> 00:03:38,520products, different strategies, different ideas, individual companies. We kind of tell5000:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,520you what the risks are, butthere's risk in everything, and your risk5100:03:42,599 --> 00:03:46,759tolerance is different than somebody else's risktolerance, and only you know that risk5200:03:46,800 --> 00:03:51,240tolerance. So I don't just takewhat we say or anybody else says,5300:03:51,319 --> 00:03:53,840or anything you eat and just say, hey, I'm gonna go do this5400:03:53,879 --> 00:04:02,159without understanding the risks. Every investmentbear is some type of risk, So5500:04:02,360 --> 00:04:09,800understand that prior to investing, andyour risk tolerance should not change when the5600:04:09,919 --> 00:04:14,919market's going up, because of courseyou can hand the risk when you're making5700:04:14,919 --> 00:04:18,079money. Think about what it iswhen the markets are going down. Think5800:04:18,120 --> 00:04:24,600about now we're going into August,September, and October. I don't think5900:04:24,639 --> 00:04:28,439we have just a full off thecliff thing unless something happens that we don't6000:04:28,480 --> 00:04:33,279see coming. But I think earningshave been okay. You know, from6100:04:33,319 --> 00:04:36,879a year over a year, they'regonna be good. Twenty two wasn't that6200:04:36,959 --> 00:04:43,720great a year. This is thecoming into the thirty year the presidency next6300:04:43,800 --> 00:04:48,920year, so let's see what happens. Most of the year. The stock's6400:04:48,959 --> 00:04:58,160going up of the Magnificent seven,and it's all driven by AI artificial intelligence.6500:04:58,959 --> 00:05:05,639Well and two people's start making moneyon artificial intelligence. That whole craze6600:05:06,560 --> 00:05:14,040wears itself out if it's not creatingcash and creating profits, but only creating6700:05:14,839 --> 00:05:19,920interest and euphoria. So where dowe sit now? We sit The SMP6800:05:20,120 --> 00:05:24,680was up one this week, upthree for the month, and up nineteen6900:05:24,680 --> 00:05:30,720percent for the year. That stacksup two three point eight four a month7000:05:30,199 --> 00:05:35,360and up thirty six percent for theyear. The small caps are one up7100:05:35,360 --> 00:05:40,240for the week, five percent forthe month, and twelve percent for the7200:05:40,319 --> 00:05:45,759year. And the one that wealways look at is the equal weighted S7300:05:45,839 --> 00:05:50,959ANDP A point two percent for theweek, a three percent for the month,7400:05:51,120 --> 00:05:56,279which is equal to the SMP,and only up nine percent for the7500:05:56,399 --> 00:06:01,519year. That makes more sense becauseunless you just put all your money in7600:06:01,560 --> 00:06:08,000the SSP and NASDAC, which meansyou're pretty much very high risk type person,7700:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,759because it can't, we'll go downand we'll go up. And I7800:06:10,879 --> 00:06:14,519know the whole thing is, whocares it keeps going? Well, it7900:06:14,519 --> 00:06:17,600doesn't always keep going, guys,because you know what, what only close8000:06:17,639 --> 00:06:21,480to forty six hundred, and that'stwo hundred somewhat points lower than the highs,8100:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,839which means if you did that atforty eight fifty, you're stole down8200:06:26,360 --> 00:06:30,360and when you're at thirty nine hundred, you were worried and concerned. I've8300:06:30,360 --> 00:06:36,319been in this thing a long time. I understand investor psychology. So with8400:06:36,480 --> 00:06:40,639that, I'm going to go backto what I was saying, opportunities.8500:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,680So they come to this to methis week and they say, you know,8600:06:44,759 --> 00:06:47,560I don't want to keep putting moneyfrom the Amazons, the Googles,8700:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,800the Apples. You know, it'sjust so high I don't want to get8800:06:50,839 --> 00:06:55,000in and then watch them come down. And then when there I said,8900:06:55,040 --> 00:06:59,399okay, so what do you dothere is you maybe start with a little9000:06:59,399 --> 00:07:02,800bit of the index that has themin there so you can dollar course avage9100:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,560if it comes down. But ifyou're looking for individual places, let's look,9200:07:08,079 --> 00:07:13,879Microsoft got beat up. Microsoft gotdown to the low three thirties.9300:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,600I mean, is it really beatup to compared to when it was down9400:07:16,639 --> 00:07:21,720at the low two hundreds now,but it has come off twenty thirty points9500:07:21,720 --> 00:07:27,480from its highs. Not a badplace to start a little position. If9600:07:27,519 --> 00:07:30,920you don't have any If you're tryingto get self invested and you have all9700:07:30,959 --> 00:07:34,480this cash, what's the other thing? Raight Theon? We live here,9800:07:34,480 --> 00:07:40,920we know Raith Theon, Raytheon's notgoing away. Raytheon have some trouble with9900:07:40,959 --> 00:07:43,839their engines. They got to takea look at it. No different than10000:07:43,879 --> 00:07:46,399bowing with their planes. These arein short term plays. When they turn10100:07:46,439 --> 00:07:51,920around, when you get in andRython under eighty five popped a little bit,10200:07:51,959 --> 00:07:57,000who knows where it goes? Youcan come a little unto eighty Raytheon's10300:07:57,040 --> 00:08:01,399not going away, be smart aboutit. And the other one when I10400:08:01,439 --> 00:08:07,279got down the thirday could tell people, you know, Target, Target is10500:08:07,319 --> 00:08:11,959not you know, got hit forthe same reason bud Light died. But10600:08:11,120 --> 00:08:16,439Target changed their philosophy pretty quickly yetrid of what was bothering people went the10700:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,759other way and back to school.So you know, you pick it up10800:08:20,759 --> 00:08:26,360twenty eight thirty and now it's aboutthirty six dollars. There's opportunities all the10900:08:26,519 --> 00:08:31,480time, even when the markets arerocketing up and you're and you're looking at11000:08:31,519 --> 00:08:35,440these other stocks and say where doI put more money? And that's the11100:08:35,519 --> 00:08:41,360cycle that you go through. Lookfor the stocks that guy have gotten hit11200:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,240a little bit for one reason orthe other, and the money will flow11300:08:43,279 --> 00:08:48,240back in and stay with good companies. Raise the UN's a great company,11400:08:48,480 --> 00:08:52,960Target's a great company, Microsoft's agreat great company. Doesn't mean you're buying11500:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,759it at the bottom, but itmeans you're buying it a lot less than11600:08:56,799 --> 00:09:01,159when they were their highs. Thatthey just had read and lee. And11700:09:01,240 --> 00:09:05,519that's what you look for. Nodifferent than those banks. Alliance Bank got11800:09:05,519 --> 00:09:09,320down to eleven dollars, but youknow you might have been able to buy11900:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,919it between fifteen and twenty that day. It's back over fifty. Crisis crisis,12000:09:13,919 --> 00:09:20,879I don't want it was all roomis. But if you invest,12100:09:20,000 --> 00:09:24,480you gotta look and be quick atopportunities and pull the switch. Switch your12200:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,840mind from being, oh, oh, I gotta buy these things are going12300:09:28,919 --> 00:09:31,480I'm gonna I'm not gonna. I'mnot gonna be part of it. The12400:09:31,559 --> 00:09:33,799video's gonna go to a thousand,I'm not gonna be part of it.12500:09:33,799 --> 00:09:37,000Well, you didn't buy it,which for a little bit of a pullback.12600:09:39,519 --> 00:09:43,799Google Apple, Oh, you'll havean opportunity. Look for the other12700:09:45,159 --> 00:09:54,679opportunities in these markets. So you'rean investor says, this is happening a12800:09:54,720 --> 00:10:01,639lot now too, ultra conservative investor. They're out of the market's got cash12900:10:01,679 --> 00:10:07,639sitting there, but they want togo get going. So I started thinking13000:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,080about it, and I came upwith a model that's perfect for the ultra13100:10:11,080 --> 00:10:20,320conservative person. It's called sig cigconservative income and then get a kicker in13200:10:20,360 --> 00:10:26,399the growth. It's for preservation ofprinciple, with the opportunity to make some13300:10:26,519 --> 00:10:37,799money in the market without risking yourprinciple. How about that? Okay,13400:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,000how about that? So you goin. There's a couple of different ways13500:10:41,039 --> 00:10:45,559to do it. But you've gotgovernment bonds, right, you got government13600:10:45,600 --> 00:10:50,360bonds paying you four percent, fourand a half percent whatever it is,13700:10:50,720 --> 00:10:56,600and the income that's derived off ofit, and the money bought it because13800:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,639you remember, you're buying it ata discount right now, you're buying it13900:10:58,679 --> 00:11:03,519at a discount usually two ninety threeto be able to get that yield.14000:11:05,919 --> 00:11:09,919Those bonds will turn into you say, you're doing it on a million dollars.14100:11:11,519 --> 00:11:13,840You put up nine ten, ninehundred, twenty thousand that you know14200:11:15,440 --> 00:11:20,360every time you those that bond laddercomes due, you're gonna get one hundred14300:11:20,399 --> 00:11:24,960thousand dollars each bond that you boughtor whatever it is. That million will14400:11:24,960 --> 00:11:26,519turn into a million, and nineten will turn to a million. No14500:11:26,720 --> 00:11:31,279risk to a principle. You takethe other part and the interest and your14600:11:31,320 --> 00:11:39,559dollar course average into our growth modelusing indexes, not individual stocks indexes.14700:11:41,799 --> 00:11:45,840You'd be surprised over time three years, four years, five years, seventy14800:11:45,879 --> 00:11:48,200years, ten years, how muchthat will grow for you. And you14900:11:48,279 --> 00:11:54,720sleep at night. You know whyyou sleep at night. Your principal's secure15000:11:54,399 --> 00:12:07,879by the government bonds. Ultra conservativeinvestors that want preservation a principle, but15100:12:07,080 --> 00:12:13,120understand to keep up with the inflation, we need to get some growth over15200:12:13,279 --> 00:12:18,120time. So you do a fiveyear program, three year pro whatever it15300:12:18,200 --> 00:12:22,000is you want to put it away. Right the worst case scenario, if15400:12:22,000 --> 00:12:26,759the markets all want to zero,the government bonds pay off, you're right15500:12:26,799 --> 00:12:30,120back to leash your principle. Ofcourse, you're gonna have more than that.15600:12:30,440 --> 00:12:33,159The indexes aren't going to go tozero. The interest is going to15700:12:33,240 --> 00:12:39,240come in. But unlike insurance peoplewith that SIG, they're guaranteeing it through15800:12:39,240 --> 00:12:46,240annuities. We can't use the wordguarantee. So I'm telling you you'll it's15900:12:46,320 --> 00:12:54,840preservation a principle, getting your incomethat turns into growth. Sig CIG conservative16000:12:54,879 --> 00:12:58,840investors who have cash on the sidelinesthat are afraid to get into the market16100:12:58,919 --> 00:13:03,240right now because it's where it is, and you use the opportunity over time16200:13:03,279 --> 00:13:07,000to do it. Take advantage ofthe interest rates being higher, take advantage16300:13:07,120 --> 00:13:13,360of dollar course averaging into the markets, and you'll be well rewarded down the16400:13:13,399 --> 00:13:18,840old The worst case scenario is youget all your money back, and you've16500:13:18,879 --> 00:13:22,440heard that story within with the withthe what you call it all day long16600:13:22,480 --> 00:13:28,559and nuities and nudities, nuities.But here's the best part. It's tax16700:13:28,600 --> 00:13:33,399efficient. That's tax deferred. Rememberif you're an in enuity, it's tax16800:13:33,440 --> 00:13:37,200deferred. You take it out,you pay taxes on your games. This16900:13:37,440 --> 00:13:43,720is tax efficient. Why because governmentbonds allow you to not have to pay17000:13:43,759 --> 00:13:50,000state tax. We have state taxin Arizona. So you say, well,17100:13:50,159 --> 00:13:54,919not tax, doing the EFT,doing the e f T the index17200:13:54,000 --> 00:14:01,159models. You stay in it longterm, which is a year, or17300:14:01,320 --> 00:14:05,080if it's down, you can selland take tax losses and switch from one17400:14:05,120 --> 00:14:13,960to another. That's why it's taxefficient long term gains, no state tax17500:14:15,000 --> 00:14:20,240on the income coming off the USgovernment bonds. Now that's a way to17600:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,519look at it. We're going totalk about it with all the guys later.17700:14:22,919 --> 00:14:26,559But there's a model. There's alwayssomething coming up. For all the17800:14:26,639 --> 00:14:31,679years I've been doing this, wemanage the money ourselves. I've come up17900:14:31,720 --> 00:14:37,960with the models, the income models, the the the the protection models,18000:14:37,039 --> 00:14:39,919all the stuff. You know.We had a protection model. Everybody loved18100:14:39,919 --> 00:14:43,960to protection model in December twenty twobecause guess what, the market went down18200:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,200and it did what it was supposedto, not lose more than ten to18300:14:48,279 --> 00:14:54,360twelve percent of their original amount ofthe accountant people that got in earlier one18400:14:54,480 --> 00:15:01,639even close to that. Right now, markets are higher. Of course,18500:15:03,080 --> 00:15:07,840the insurance it's gonna cost you inyour returns. That's how it happened.18600:15:07,919 --> 00:15:11,919Market goes up, the insurance goesdown. But when the markets wentn't down,18700:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,759the insurance was perfect. Now Ihave a whole other way of doing18800:15:15,799 --> 00:15:18,960it for you, the conservative investor, Take it and think about it.18900:15:20,039 --> 00:15:24,440So that's where we're at in investingin the markets. You gotta be careful19000:15:24,440 --> 00:15:28,960where we are, but you gottabe invested because I don't know if we're19100:15:28,960 --> 00:15:33,399gonna go to make new highs rightnow. I thought the forty two for19200:15:33,519 --> 00:15:39,759Max would be the highs were closeto forty six. I'm not perfect,19300:15:39,159 --> 00:15:45,600but I'm still making money. That'sthe idea behind it. We know how19400:15:45,639 --> 00:15:48,639to protect your portfolios. If that'swhat you know. If you're fearing,19500:15:48,879 --> 00:15:52,440if you're scared, if you're nervous, do it. And it all starts19600:15:52,480 --> 00:15:58,480with the plan, and it endswith the money management. We do it19700:15:58,519 --> 00:16:02,919all and why you do it all. It's of course I understand how to19800:16:02,960 --> 00:16:06,759manage money, but in order todo it, you got to find out19900:16:06,759 --> 00:16:08,600what the risk tolerance is, whatyour plan is, how much income you20000:16:08,639 --> 00:16:11,279need, do you have enough incomestream, will you be able to live20100:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,399on it? What are you goingto do with the money? Those are20200:16:14,440 --> 00:16:18,159important. That's why what we thesetup we have as a team right now20300:16:18,000 --> 00:16:23,480is working fantastic. And all thosepeople that keep coming in and making appointments,20400:16:25,240 --> 00:16:30,399I'm glad you have confidence in usand trust in us to at least20500:16:30,559 --> 00:16:36,480show you how we do it.And then so many of you wanting to20600:16:36,519 --> 00:16:38,120do business with us, and Ithink a lot of it is too,20700:16:40,159 --> 00:16:45,440honestly is we think the same.We think the same. We we we20800:16:47,039 --> 00:16:52,720look at the situation in our country, in the world, in our government20900:16:52,120 --> 00:16:56,919and just can't believe what's happening.I mean, this week is no different.21000:16:56,639 --> 00:17:02,600Think about it. They beating upPresident Trump again, trying to indict21100:17:02,679 --> 00:17:11,319him again on garbage to distract usfrom what's really going on right in front21200:17:11,400 --> 00:17:18,200of the world, but the mediadoesn't want to expose it. That's disgusting21300:17:18,279 --> 00:17:22,279to me. How does Biden getaway with all this? No diffen than21400:17:22,319 --> 00:17:26,440Clinton, but at least Clinton's didn'thave all the social media that really got21500:17:26,440 --> 00:17:30,680out there. What the Biden's manthink about it? You're catching guys with21600:17:30,880 --> 00:17:36,240bonds on his lawyer, smoking abomb, you know, getting coking in21700:17:36,279 --> 00:17:40,119the White House, You're getting weedin the White House. Where's it coming21800:17:40,160 --> 00:17:44,119from? And the fact that theydon't pin it on anybody else. I'm21900:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,279glad to hear that. Okay,is you know where it's going, you22000:17:47,359 --> 00:17:51,599know what it's about. And thenthey try to sneak through the justice system22100:17:51,920 --> 00:18:00,279and give Biden's son the ability tobasically don't go to jail, and we're22200:18:00,279 --> 00:18:07,200gonna and you're gonna get your immunityright there. We should rise up Democrats,22300:18:07,279 --> 00:18:12,079Republicans, people in the US andsay hell no, hell no.22400:18:15,160 --> 00:18:21,720You know they spow all this stuffabout we're all well, no one's above22500:18:21,759 --> 00:18:25,759the law, except of course,if you're in a Democrat or you're a22600:18:25,839 --> 00:18:33,759Clinton, or you're a Biden.It's time for the people to say no22700:18:33,839 --> 00:18:40,279more. It's time for us tosay no more, and our judges.22800:18:40,839 --> 00:18:44,759And I'm glad that judge had somegoods to do this and not just roll22900:18:44,839 --> 00:18:49,599over. The judges need to stopletting this happen. They have gotten away23000:18:49,599 --> 00:18:53,119with so much. I mean,come on, the judge. Judges in23100:18:53,160 --> 00:18:59,960Arizona won't even look at the electioninformation or let it get exposed. Okay,23200:19:00,079 --> 00:19:03,480expose it, let the people seeit, let them decide. But23300:19:03,680 --> 00:19:10,359no. But I'm glad as judgedidn't go down the road of just rubbers23400:19:10,400 --> 00:19:19,160stamping Biden to get immunity to notnot to go to jail all that stuff.23500:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,119We know, it's so much more. How are they not talking about23600:19:25,200 --> 00:19:30,559the money. The money trail I'mhearing is over fifty million dollars that they're23700:19:30,559 --> 00:19:37,480going to expose. And you haveiOS agents talking about this talking about these23800:19:37,559 --> 00:19:44,359millions of dollars and saying his countryclub expenses and it's sex club expenses.23900:19:45,759 --> 00:19:51,319Lie after lie after lie after lie. I couldn't kill less what he does24000:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,319in his life. I don't wanthim to do be a drug addict.24100:19:53,319 --> 00:19:57,680I don't want to be, youknow, a degenerate. Okay, I'm24200:19:57,680 --> 00:20:02,680not happy that he doesn't. Butdon't give him a break just because he's24300:20:02,720 --> 00:20:08,920a president's son. China, Russia, Ukraine, everything that they can't they24400:20:10,200 --> 00:20:17,279pinned on Trump. They did itthemselves. And now they're trying to put24500:20:17,319 --> 00:20:22,480Trump in jail when they're doing itthemselves. I mean, think about that.24600:20:22,599 --> 00:20:29,200Think about somebody that's an absolute lionnarcissist and you catch him with something24700:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,160and they turn it and say it'syou, or they always try to get24800:20:32,240 --> 00:20:36,799you in trouble that even though youdidn't do it, but they know because24900:20:36,839 --> 00:20:41,039they did it. They knew whatwas going on in Russia, they knew25000:20:41,039 --> 00:20:44,279what was going on in Ukraine,in China because they were doing it.25100:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,880So they were trying to make agame plan of saying that was Trump.25200:20:49,039 --> 00:20:55,359Sure, I'm sure it's sub ofTrump's business dealings and everything wearing above boarding,25300:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,839great and everything else, but theyhaven't been able to nail him on25400:20:57,880 --> 00:21:03,759that, you know. And Iknow if the IRS came after almost anyone25500:21:03,799 --> 00:21:07,440the stuff, they would say,Oh, that's not good, that's not25600:21:07,559 --> 00:21:11,880good, that's not good. That'sgood. But I've heard many stories too25700:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,839when the IRS comes in and ordersto you, they discredit this, but25800:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,119you get credit for other things thatyou didn't so pretty much pay your taxes.25900:21:21,000 --> 00:21:26,839Okay, they won't bother you.But at the end of the day,26000:21:26,319 --> 00:21:33,039I gotta look and see what kindof country we're leaving to our grandchildren26100:21:33,640 --> 00:21:42,000and their children. And right nowthis country is so corrupt, so bad26200:21:42,119 --> 00:21:48,799politically, turning into the weakest countryI've seen a long time. And is26300:21:48,839 --> 00:21:56,599it because for all those years theyhave been doing things that they're not supposed26400:21:56,640 --> 00:22:02,559to. I mean, blistically,you got one political system. You had26500:22:02,599 --> 00:22:04,920them, some called Democrats, somecalled Republicans. They switched back and forth26600:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,759sometimes, but they all try toprotect their jobs. And then there's that26700:22:08,880 --> 00:22:15,039other group that's trying to do theright thing for the USA, for America,26800:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,160for us to be strong again,and they keep getting shot down.26900:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,200And the media is so good andso strong at this Eventually the media is27000:22:22,200 --> 00:22:26,920gonna get wiped out. They're gonnaget overrun with everything that's going on,27100:22:27,000 --> 00:22:33,359and they're going to have to reportthe truth. How could they hold back?27200:22:34,920 --> 00:22:40,359I'm Biden's son, the President's son. How can they hold back on27300:22:40,480 --> 00:22:45,839what's going on? Knowing now thatthere were so many lies that everything about27400:22:47,079 --> 00:22:48,880I wasn't involved, I didn't knowanything, I had this and that.27500:22:49,079 --> 00:22:56,920And we know now from other sourcespublicly in these hearings under oath that they27600:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,880were part of it, that heknew everything. Of course, a father27700:23:00,039 --> 00:23:07,960knows everything. Lastly, you runaway. You know it's heated bay time27800:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,759at the White House. So yougo to your beach house with millions of27900:23:11,799 --> 00:23:15,759dollars, And where do you getthat money? Your average salary for all28000:23:15,759 --> 00:23:18,359the years you've been in there's probablyone hundred and seventy five. How the28100:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,759heck did you invest your money?They become so rich, And even if28200:23:22,799 --> 00:23:26,960you've got a few hundred thousand dollarswhen you're a vice president for some things,28300:23:27,119 --> 00:23:33,200it doesn't allow you to have tensof millions of dollars. There's so28400:23:33,319 --> 00:23:38,119much stuff going on that I hopeit doesn't break your entire system, but28500:23:38,240 --> 00:23:42,599we have to clean it out.So you coupled that with the markets that28600:23:42,680 --> 00:23:48,160are going higher, you have allthis stuff happening. I'm telling you invest28700:23:48,279 --> 00:23:52,599cautiously. Invest cautiously, be happening. You've made some money in fact,28800:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,039you know what, have you've beenthinking about doing something? Take some money28900:23:56,039 --> 00:24:00,160out, go do it so youknow you can some of your profits.29000:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,480You made one hundred grand, taketwenty five grand and do something because it29100:24:04,559 --> 00:24:08,960can tune against you and that's notwhat you want to see. So in29200:24:10,079 --> 00:24:12,440summary, markets keep going higher.I don't see a lot to bring it29300:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,160down right now. But we werein August, September, October, so29400:24:15,200 --> 00:24:19,160will be very very careful. Wehave a way. If you're ultra conservative,29500:24:21,279 --> 00:24:23,119we'll talk about it more and keeplistening. We got an hour and29600:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,839a half left of the Moneymounted Show. Thank you for being part of it.29700:24:32,079 --> 00:24:36,039Welcome back everybody to the Money MountedShow. We got a full house.29800:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,960Hello, Dave Good and Todd Yesor Pointyboddy. So the big headline29900:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,279this week was the dal rally thedown streak, right, wasn't that the30000:24:45,279 --> 00:24:48,640big headline? You know? LastSimon did it? Yes? Nineteen eighty30100:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,319seven, nineteen eighty seven. What'sweird is that we found one day short30200:24:52,359 --> 00:24:57,640of the all time record, whichwould have been fourteen consecutive days in eighteen30300:24:59,039 --> 00:25:00,960ninety seven. And Todd, Ithought this was pretty cool, although you30400:25:02,039 --> 00:25:07,200thought it was a dub nineteen eightyseven in eighteen ninety seven, same four30500:25:07,279 --> 00:25:11,039numbers, just different configuration. Ithought that was kind of cool. Yeah.30600:25:12,079 --> 00:25:15,720And the only and the only reasonit didn't go fifteen is they had30700:25:15,720 --> 00:25:21,880the usually versals on Thursday's true,but in all fairness, a week ago30800:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,240Friday it was up two points.It could have very easily been down two30900:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,799points that we wouldn't even been talkingabout it though, But it was just31000:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,599kind of fun to talk about andhistoric, historic touches of things. The31100:25:30,599 --> 00:25:37,559other big story of the week four, especially for Tucson, was raytheon stock31200:25:37,880 --> 00:25:42,640has not participated in issues. Rallydropped fifteen percent at the open on Tuesday31300:25:44,279 --> 00:25:48,240after the company said, now,I'll quote them, a significant portion of31400:25:48,279 --> 00:25:53,119the Pratt and Whitney engines that powerAirbus A three twenty neo jets will need31500:25:53,200 --> 00:26:00,400accelerated removal and inspection over the nexttwelve months. Now the stock reacts to31600:26:00,519 --> 00:26:07,359me was extreme. It appears theinitial estimates of what this will cost will31700:26:07,400 --> 00:26:12,240be around five hundred million dollars,and the company has annual revenue of sixty31800:26:12,279 --> 00:26:18,359nine billion dollars. Sixty nine billiondollars. It doesn't seem like the kind31900:26:18,400 --> 00:26:22,839of a thing that would knock astock like Raytheon down fifteen percent. Yeah,32000:26:22,839 --> 00:26:23,799it is interesting. I don't knowif it's because it was just in32100:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,240I guess in their smaller sector.I don't know how I'm big. It32200:26:29,279 --> 00:26:30,759seems like they're more in the missilesand everything. So maybe that's why you're32300:26:30,799 --> 00:26:36,519gonna have a lot of analysts downgradesover the next week or ten days.32400:26:37,079 --> 00:26:40,440That's typical when you have something likethis, they lower their priced arg as32500:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,160they downgrade the stock from buy toa hold. You know, everybody gets32600:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,519more cautious. So, but Ithink if you've been looking for an entry32700:26:48,559 --> 00:26:52,480point for Raytheon to at least starta position, and I'm gonna saying let's32800:26:52,519 --> 00:26:56,519go all in with everything you have. But if you've been looking for a32900:26:56,559 --> 00:26:59,960position to start a position to Raytheon, this is yeah. Like you said33000:27:00,079 --> 00:27:02,680the past, though, when astock craters like that, you don't necessarily33100:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,720get in right away because it coulddrop a little more and then I really33200:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,279will find a bottom and then it'llstart building back. It generally does.33300:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,759It's what we've seen with Apple.It did it a while ago. It33400:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,240dropped from like one eighty to onefifty. Disney has done it twice.33500:27:14,559 --> 00:27:17,880Yeah, eighteen months. We sawit with Disney. When it dropped down33600:27:17,880 --> 00:27:18,759near one hundred, I said,I think it, well, did it33700:27:18,759 --> 00:27:22,359twice. I mean it was atone sixty and then it dropped to one33800:27:22,480 --> 00:27:25,480twenty and then you told me aboutthe crater. Right then it was kind33900:27:25,480 --> 00:27:26,640of stuck around there. It gotback to about one thirty five and then34000:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,640a crater again. And now welook at it, it's at eighty five.34100:27:29,759 --> 00:27:32,759Yeah. I think if I werelooking at Raytheon, maybe take a34200:27:32,839 --> 00:27:37,200quarter of a position here as astarting point. It's a great company with34300:27:37,160 --> 00:27:41,920great products, great people us.It's gonna be okay, it's gonna be34400:27:42,079 --> 00:27:45,559another one. There's a lot ofnews on this week, a lot of34500:27:45,599 --> 00:27:48,359calls on. At least I hada number of people ask me about is34600:27:48,559 --> 00:27:53,720mcal with the new Barbie movie,which went went over really really well.34700:27:55,039 --> 00:27:57,680Stock was up twenty percent in thelast thirty days ahead of release of that34800:27:57,759 --> 00:28:03,559movie. Gained more ground on Mondayafter the opening weekend was strong. Be34900:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,519careful here, this should give thema short term boost in sales, but35000:28:08,480 --> 00:28:14,000this two shall pass. And thiscompany has been struggling. They're in the35100:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,039middle of declining sales. Now thiswill give them a pop, but they're35200:28:18,039 --> 00:28:21,759in the middle of the decline.They give you an example this week.35300:28:21,839 --> 00:28:23,799The middle of this week. Nowyou would think, okay, if if35400:28:23,799 --> 00:28:27,920this Barbie thing is going to changethe company and send them rocketing higher,35500:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,319wouldn't you want to be in chargeof that ship? The CEO left in35600:28:33,359 --> 00:28:38,519the middle of the week to joinYah to join the Gap, the wobe35700:28:38,559 --> 00:28:41,799the CEO of the Gap instead ofMattel that was already coming then. But35800:28:41,839 --> 00:28:45,519what did that tell you? Imean, what did that tell you about35900:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,440how to come out? Before Barbieeven was released. I mean, that36000:28:48,519 --> 00:28:52,119had been a deal made. Ithink what it's pointing to is that kids36100:28:52,119 --> 00:28:57,000are less and less dealing with physicaltoys and it's more going into the virtual36200:28:57,039 --> 00:29:02,160world. So we've seen that withBlocks, We've seen that with other video36300:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,440games. Um, that's where theyspend their playtime. Right back in the36400:29:04,519 --> 00:29:10,359day. You did have a Barbie, right, you had transformers like things36500:29:10,359 --> 00:29:15,559that you actually past the physicals atall. But with Mattel is they did36600:29:15,599 --> 00:29:18,799announce that they're trying to do awhole universe, like a Marvel universe.36700:29:18,839 --> 00:29:22,920They're going to try and do aHot Wheels movie. Other Disneyland essentially pretty36800:29:22,000 --> 00:29:26,279much, but they're trying to domovies with it. But they've got a36900:29:26,319 --> 00:29:29,279they're buildings. They're actually building anew Disney lad. I saw that in37000:29:29,319 --> 00:29:33,240California with all of the all ofthose like Legoland is what I can exactly.37100:29:33,319 --> 00:29:34,960That's a good good analogy doing.That's a good analogy. Yeah.37200:29:36,079 --> 00:29:38,599But I had someone to approach methrough Jim say, boy, I think37300:29:38,599 --> 00:29:41,759I got to buy that stock,And I said, no, I think37400:29:41,759 --> 00:29:45,960you ought to shorted. This isan opportunity. This is a struggling.37500:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,440But the other company that has aconnection to the Barbie movie and Oppenheimer,37600:29:49,160 --> 00:29:53,160Warner Brothers, didn't seem like itwas moving too much on any Warner Brothers37700:29:53,240 --> 00:29:59,400is Oppenheimer, right. While Ialso saw that they produced the Mattel because37800:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,559Mattel's toy company. No, Iget that. I get that, but37900:30:02,559 --> 00:30:06,519but I'm thinking that the Barbie moviewas that was that Warner Brothers also,38000:30:07,039 --> 00:30:10,759I believe so yeah, Okay,Sebastian sitting in the back there, he38100:30:10,799 --> 00:30:14,359said, that's that's absolutely okay.A big weekend for them. Yeah,38200:30:14,440 --> 00:30:18,039big weekend from Warner Brothers and Stockdidn't doing anything. Yeah, so that38300:30:18,119 --> 00:30:21,119might be an interesting see how theirearnings come out in a couple of months.38400:30:21,480 --> 00:30:26,200We had the we talked last weekabout the big historic rebalancing of the38500:30:26,279 --> 00:30:30,480NASDAC one hundred that took place onMonday of last week, and talk about38600:30:30,519 --> 00:30:33,519a yawn. Um, not onlywas it a yawn, it did nothing38700:30:34,039 --> 00:30:41,359to stop the runaway Magnificent seven.On Friday, the NASDAC one hundred had38800:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,799its best day of the month.And it was a heck of a month.38900:30:44,160 --> 00:30:45,599Yeah, I think a lot ofhow to do with you know,39000:30:45,720 --> 00:30:51,240we had reports come out from Metaand uh they were pretty good, and39100:30:51,319 --> 00:30:55,519so but Apple, Amazon, theGoogle, those all had reports late earlier39200:30:55,559 --> 00:30:59,759and they were and uh in Nvidia, the Main and seven we're all running39300:30:59,799 --> 00:31:06,079like gazelles. Yeah, late inthe week and distorting the index. Again.39400:31:06,119 --> 00:31:11,359The index which they tried to fixwas had his best day of the39500:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,279of the month, of the entiremonth, and it was a perfect way.39600:31:14,319 --> 00:31:17,960We're going day we'll have the entireworld run by seven countries. Just39700:31:18,119 --> 00:31:21,160ten years, we should have evencompanies. Yeah, I think you're absolutely39800:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,920right. My goodness, their theirmarket cap is just getting So you want39900:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,920to talk a little bit about theFederal Reserve meeting this week? Sure,40000:31:27,400 --> 00:31:32,920So obviously drum Powell came out raisedit another twenty five basis points. Market40100:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,079really welcomed it with a yawn becausethey already knew that was going to happen.40200:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,279Um, the real interesting thing waswhat is he saying about the next40300:31:40,279 --> 00:31:44,559meeting. They don't meet again untilthe end of September, How they're going40400:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,920to um, what they're going todo to interest rates in September? Is40500:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,960there really the only thing that couldstop this market's momentum? And drum Power40600:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,599didn't really say that he was definitelygoing to raise rates next time. He40700:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,799says he's gonna look at economic news, he's gonna look at all the PC40800:32:00,119 --> 00:32:02,519data, the CPI data, thelabor market data, and how that comes40900:32:02,519 --> 00:32:07,559out, we'll dictate their decision onthe next meeting. So if we don't41000:32:07,599 --> 00:32:10,319have another rate increase, we couldsee this market continue to go right,41100:32:10,319 --> 00:32:14,160because that's kind of what the marketwants to see. That's not what Jerome41200:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,279Powell wants, right, I mean, that's the bottom line. Well,41300:32:16,359 --> 00:32:21,119Jerome Power really pointed at two differenteconomic numbers. One of them was the41400:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,519core PC and CPI, And thecore PC and CPI is the inflation measure41500:32:25,559 --> 00:32:30,640that X is out food and energy, which is the most volatile part of41600:32:30,680 --> 00:32:35,559inflation, and the central banks don'treally control the prices of those things too41700:32:35,559 --> 00:32:38,640well through monetary policy. So hewanted to see core CPI and pc go41800:32:38,720 --> 00:32:44,880down. And he also wanted tosee wage growth go down. Wage growth41900:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,880has continued to go off a chart, and you can't really see a slowing42000:32:47,880 --> 00:32:52,720inflation when people are getting paid morebecause that means he's housing is forty two42100:32:52,759 --> 00:32:55,839percent of CPI. We're seeing noweakness in housing because of the shortage.42200:32:57,799 --> 00:33:04,519Shortage. The primary driver that tookinflation from four to three in June was42300:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,440plunging gasolene prices. Well, how'sthat working on right? Oil prices are42400:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,519back to a three month high,and vide place a week up three and42500:33:13,519 --> 00:33:15,880a half bucks at eighty and ahalf gas prices at eight month high.42600:33:15,920 --> 00:33:20,799Yeah, and so here we go. So we're gonna get the July inflation42700:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,920number in the middle of August,and my guess is it probably ticks up42800:33:24,319 --> 00:33:28,400and that would be the first timein months it has happened, right,42900:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,799yea, yeah, that might sparesomeone best number I think, right,43000:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,920Yeah, it's been a long time. Yeah, So that that could be43100:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,640a you know, a catalyst thatfinally makes markets take a breather. Um,43200:33:37,920 --> 00:33:42,680we saw interest rates they did tickup this week, Um, based43300:33:42,720 --> 00:33:46,279on the federal reserves decisions. So, um, what's the inversion now?43400:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,680Still one percent? Still one percent? Still right at one percent? The43500:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,880ten year treasury three point nine,the two year treasury four point nine.43600:33:55,000 --> 00:33:59,480Yeah, and again that's the bondmarket telling you we're gonna have a recession.43700:34:00,319 --> 00:34:04,039Now. It's been wrong for ayear and a half. Yeah exactly.43800:34:04,359 --> 00:34:06,920Are we thinking that for once it'snot going to be right? It's43900:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,800been right in the past. It'snot right every time. Remember remember that44000:34:08,960 --> 00:34:15,079it's it's the high high percentage ofaccuracy, but not every time. The44100:34:15,159 --> 00:34:19,960interesting bartwo is the average amount oftime between when the inversion takes place and44200:34:20,039 --> 00:34:24,400the actual recession is fifteen months andwe're right there, right right at about44300:34:24,440 --> 00:34:30,039that fifteen month level, so we'llsee um. But that was an interesting44400:34:30,239 --> 00:34:37,360Uh. The economy continues to bestrong. The flash PMI number for July44500:34:37,519 --> 00:34:43,519showed continuing strength in the US.We saw the gross domestic product up two44600:34:43,559 --> 00:34:46,760point four percent the first look atit for the for Q two, which44700:34:46,800 --> 00:34:52,639is stronger than expected. Personal consumptionexpenditure was the lowest in two years,44800:34:52,239 --> 00:34:59,920but the core personal consumption expenditure washigh and personal spending increased. So we're44900:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,920essentially seen little, if any sloweddown in the economy, which is one45000:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,159of the reasons the markets running andthey're saying, oh, my goodness,45100:35:07,199 --> 00:35:12,639we've avoided recession. Well sort ofrights, because the manufacturing sector of the45200:35:12,679 --> 00:35:15,199United States has definitely slowed down,no question, it's definitely slowed down,45300:35:15,239 --> 00:35:20,159But the services has done the exactopposite. It's still increasing. So you45400:35:20,199 --> 00:35:24,239have this dichotomy where overall we're stillseeing a positive growth, really led the45500:35:24,239 --> 00:35:30,360way by the services sector, butmaybe eventually the manufacturing starts to weigh down45600:35:30,400 --> 00:35:34,440the growth, but it doesn't looklike it's doing it. Yeah, at45700:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,159this point in time, we knowthat that Paul watched inflation down around two45800:35:37,199 --> 00:35:42,719percent. Todd to report on Fridayshowed is still four. Yeah, it's45900:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,880still four. Core PC is stillfour. Personal consumption expenditure is still for46000:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,679he doesn't want it to four.So we'll be back with a little break46100:35:51,679 --> 00:35:53,719coming up here, and we'll beback right after this message. We thank46200:35:53,760 --> 00:36:04,320you for joining this on this Sundaymorn say. It's all welcome back.46300:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,159You're listening to the Money Matter Show. Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Todd46400:36:07,159 --> 00:36:09,840Glick, Dan Greenberg and Dave Sherwood. We had a pretty good a week46500:36:09,880 --> 00:36:14,159last week. The Dallas up pointseven percent, SMP five hundred was up46600:36:14,199 --> 00:36:17,480one percent, the NASDAC was uptwo percent, so the Magnificent seven is46700:36:17,480 --> 00:36:22,159still killing it. The RSP,which is the equal weight at SMP five46800:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,559hundred, was up point two percent. Overall, the market, if you're46900:36:24,559 --> 00:36:28,440looking at that, was pretty flat, and then the small cap, which47000:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,480is the Russell two thousand, wasup one percent. It was a positive47100:36:30,480 --> 00:36:35,079week all around. Good news likewe were talking about last segment, was47200:36:35,119 --> 00:36:38,000the good news about the inflation,even though, like we've said at the47300:36:38,079 --> 00:36:40,480end of the last segment, isstill a four percent and he still wants47400:36:40,519 --> 00:36:44,400to get it to two percent.But what they said was good on the47500:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,920last last week was that there mightonly be one more interest rate hike,47600:36:47,239 --> 00:36:52,920and now investors love that. Itis so hard one it's like this not47700:36:52,039 --> 00:36:59,000to just say just close your eyesand buy. But valuations. This is47800:36:59,039 --> 00:37:02,159something I've learned. I've been doingthis for forty one years. Valuations do47900:37:02,519 --> 00:37:07,880matter. At the end of theday, valuations do matter. And right48000:37:07,920 --> 00:37:15,639now the valuation on the SHMP fivehundred is sixty five percent above normal valuation.48100:37:15,119 --> 00:37:17,719Also, when you just said,like what you just said, it's48200:37:17,760 --> 00:37:21,639all you want to do, let'sclose your eyes and buy, just gotta48300:37:21,679 --> 00:37:24,760buy. I just missing it.I'm missing this kind u That is the48400:37:24,800 --> 00:37:29,480cell signal is when you think Ijust need to buy. We went through48500:37:29,519 --> 00:37:30,880this with That's a good time toprobably sell. We went through this with48600:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,400Tesla a couple of years ago,where it just wouldn't go down no matter48700:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,440what it had, it just keptgoing up and up and up. People48800:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,800kept buying it pretty much closing theireyes and buying it, and it just48900:37:38,840 --> 00:37:43,039never went down. But it's pewas at what like two hundred and eighty49000:37:43,039 --> 00:37:45,800three. It was ridiculously overvalued,but for some reason it just kept going49100:37:45,880 --> 00:37:49,559up until it didn't, and thenall of a sudden it dropped and dropped49200:37:49,559 --> 00:37:52,760and dropped, and now it's p'saround forty something, a lot more manageable49300:37:52,800 --> 00:37:58,159and a lot more to its traditionalor it's true value. So it does49400:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,119happen, it can't happen, andit does, it will get fixed.49500:38:00,400 --> 00:38:05,079Just like all of those twenty twentystocks, they just had astronomically high pees.49600:38:05,159 --> 00:38:07,519People were just buying them because youcould throw a dart pick any stock49700:38:07,559 --> 00:38:10,280in the world and it would goup at that point, until it stop49800:38:10,360 --> 00:38:14,719doing that, and everybody started gettingnerves and selling out of those crap penny49900:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,480stock companies that went to fifty dollarsa share for no reason, they went50000:38:17,519 --> 00:38:22,320back to five dollars a share.Beyond Bath and Beyond is now out of50100:38:22,360 --> 00:38:27,079business. Everybody thought they had awhole resurgence because their stock went from nothing50200:38:27,159 --> 00:38:30,800to what fifty sixty dollars because itwas one of those meme stocks. Then50300:38:30,800 --> 00:38:31,440all of a sudden, the yearand a half later, it got back50400:38:31,440 --> 00:38:35,199to his true valuation of nothing,and now they're out of business, you50500:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,360know, when we were down atthirty eight hundred, everyone was thinking,50600:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,559all, this could be the bigcrash. It's coming here, you know,50700:38:40,639 --> 00:38:44,480hindsight being twenty twenty, that's obviouslya good buy a signal, right,50800:38:44,519 --> 00:38:46,880when everyone wanted to sell all newswas bad news. We constantly talked50900:38:46,880 --> 00:38:50,760about it at that point when itwas around thirty eight hundred. Then we51000:38:50,840 --> 00:38:52,880just see this huge run up.Now we're at forty six hundred, and51100:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,760all we want to do is byebye, bye, bye bye. That51200:38:55,840 --> 00:39:00,760might be the signal, right,it definitely can they irrational Longerness say liquid,51300:39:01,039 --> 00:39:07,519Yeah, we know that, right, But eventually people get too greedy51400:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,400and people get too fearful. Ithappens on both sides. Well, there's51500:39:09,400 --> 00:39:14,880two ways that you can correct thatthat elevated price earnings ratial, right,51600:39:15,119 --> 00:39:19,880One is to have stock prices decline. The other is to have earnings accelerate.51700:39:20,400 --> 00:39:25,039We're not in an environment where youwould expect accelerating earnings from the overall51800:39:25,079 --> 00:39:30,239market, or in an environment wherethe Federal Reserve is trying very very hard51900:39:30,519 --> 00:39:36,280to slow things down. That's notan environment where you're typically going to get52000:39:36,320 --> 00:39:42,119accelerated earnings. You see this typeof pricing for a market when you're coming52100:39:42,239 --> 00:39:46,960out of a recession, when yourgrowth is accelerating, and you think corporate52200:39:46,960 --> 00:39:52,199earnings are going to accelerate dramatically,then you see price earnings ratials like we52300:39:52,280 --> 00:39:58,519have now. You don't see themtypically in this type of environment. You52400:39:58,559 --> 00:40:01,280know, I'm hoid. You justmentioned the market can stay irrational longer than52500:40:01,360 --> 00:40:05,760you can stay liquid. I haveno problem being in the market. We52600:40:06,159 --> 00:40:12,639are participating. We have been morecautious than necessary. In hindsight, you52700:40:12,679 --> 00:40:15,719never know if you want to ifyou want a business where you're never wrong,52800:40:15,800 --> 00:40:17,679this is not it right, youknow, so we're wrong. We're52900:40:17,719 --> 00:40:22,559wrong. We're right more than we'rewrong, fortunately, But we've been too53000:40:22,639 --> 00:40:27,159cautious. When the market was downaround thirty eight hundred, I think the53100:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,440low for the last twelve months isthirty four ninety one, and I've been53200:40:30,440 --> 00:40:34,840pretty animate over the last six monthsthat that is going to be the low53300:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,920for the year. That is goingto be low, and it now.53400:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,639I don't think there's anybody doubts thatnow. But when we were at thirty53500:40:40,639 --> 00:40:44,559eight thirty seven, pouncing back andforth, I said I didn't There were53600:40:44,599 --> 00:40:47,039people saying we're going to go andbelow that thirty four ninety one and set53700:40:47,039 --> 00:40:52,000a new fifty two weeks old.I couldn't see that in the environment we53800:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,159were in. It was pretty verbalon this show about that's not going to53900:40:54,239 --> 00:40:58,960happen. Thirty four ninety one isgoing to be the bottom, and guess54000:40:58,960 --> 00:41:00,559what it is going to be theI think. I don't think if anybody54100:41:00,559 --> 00:41:06,320would doubt that. Now. Well, in addition to the price earnings or54200:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,599I should be in hide. Thesecond largest economy in the world, China54300:41:08,760 --> 00:41:14,719is continuing to struggle. There wasa report last week that the jobless rate54400:41:15,119 --> 00:41:19,719for sixteen to twenty four year oldsin China is twenty one point three percent.54500:41:20,519 --> 00:41:24,000Twenty one point three percent unemployment inthe sixteen to twenty four age rain.54600:41:24,280 --> 00:41:28,800Many of them have gone home tolive with their parents. There was54700:41:28,840 --> 00:41:32,400a story about one gal that shejust she just can't compete anymore in the54800:41:32,559 --> 00:41:36,480in the business world. She justexhausted, can't do it anymore, a54900:41:36,519 --> 00:41:38,960lot like the US. It doesn'tthat sound, doesn't that sound? Sawere?55000:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,719Yeah, doesn't that sound? Samwere? They push their kids a lot55100:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,159harder over there though, and you, oh, yeah, it's an interesting.55200:41:45,480 --> 00:41:46,840The China play is interesting though,because you have a lot of these55300:41:46,840 --> 00:41:51,800stocks that are so beaten up,like at JD dot Com, Ali Baba,55400:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,599and what China's doing is and wantsto do is stimulate the same way55500:41:54,639 --> 00:41:59,400we got stimulus checks. They're tryingto do that coming up. So it's55600:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,519an interesting play. I mean,if economy is still in Shamble's unemployments at55700:42:01,599 --> 00:42:05,760high you got that side, butthen you also got the stimulus side,55800:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,119where if they give these people thechecks, they're gonna be able to start55900:42:07,679 --> 00:42:12,599using them. So is Baba,JD, PDD Are they all going to56000:42:12,639 --> 00:42:15,199go even if it's not checks,even if it's you know, continual lower56100:42:15,239 --> 00:42:19,760interest rates with China has kept themlow. Yeah. A lot of these56200:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,239companies, especially the technology oriented companies, the PDD, the JD, the56300:42:22,639 --> 00:42:29,760the Ali Baba, those are interestingplays because once these Chinese consumers really start56400:42:29,840 --> 00:42:35,000spending, like we know they willeventually they are the biggest economy, well56500:42:35,039 --> 00:42:38,920not the biggest, but the biggestpopulation one of the most people with the56600:42:38,960 --> 00:42:43,039most people. And what those areAli Baba and JD dot Com Appment is56700:42:43,079 --> 00:42:45,119the same as Amazon in size wise. Ali Baba is definitely the biggest,56800:42:45,159 --> 00:42:51,320and then PDD is a smaller one, which is Timu and Timu is it's56900:42:51,559 --> 00:42:54,159kind of the it's the much cheaperversion of Ali Baba and Amazon over in57000:42:54,239 --> 00:42:59,159China, and of course they're They'rebig problem is they're struggling in real estate57100:42:59,199 --> 00:43:04,880market that's just extremely overbuilt real estatemarket. That is a bubble that about57200:43:04,880 --> 00:43:07,639that a while ago. It's partof the culture there where you have to57300:43:07,679 --> 00:43:12,320have two houses in order to befavorable to a woman. These guys were57400:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,679buying like lakehouses that they've never seenbefore. They would just buy them on57500:43:15,679 --> 00:43:17,360on a picture so they could goto the girl's dad to see, like,57600:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,840this is what I have, Letme marry your daughter. The whole57700:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,840thing in the culture and the governmentafford the government built entire city said no57800:43:24,840 --> 00:43:29,360one ever moved to. Also keepin mind that the majority of these Chinese57900:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,039are, you know, the waiversto the male side because of that one58000:43:32,199 --> 00:43:37,400child policy that they had, soall those males have to buy the houses58100:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,519for the cultural dynamics of that ofthat culture. So it's it's a very58200:43:40,559 --> 00:43:45,360interesting dynamic. They try to dopopulations controled by having one child and then58300:43:45,400 --> 00:43:46,800all the people only wanted a sonbecause they're the only ones that going to58400:43:46,840 --> 00:43:51,320carry on the name. And nowthey're having population control, they're having to58500:43:51,320 --> 00:43:55,400decline. You just have ghost townsnow absolutely towns, and they're beautiful cities,58600:43:55,440 --> 00:44:01,719beautiful cities, not one no oneever occupied. And really the reason58700:44:01,880 --> 00:44:07,000China had such a rise in theirpowers. Everyone moved from rural to urban,58800:44:07,599 --> 00:44:13,159right, and that's what brought Chinaas a prosperous nation eventually. I58900:44:13,159 --> 00:44:15,760mean, do you run out ofrural people come into urban like what it's59000:44:16,360 --> 00:44:21,679It's really interesting to keep an eyeout on that. I'd expect that China's59100:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,440stocks probably be in the headlines prettypretty bigly and then in the next three59200:44:25,440 --> 00:44:30,119to four months, because I thinkthey're way lower than a lot of the59300:44:30,159 --> 00:44:34,119stocks. They're one of the mostbullish countries that you can be investing in59400:44:34,599 --> 00:44:37,159over the next six months. Yeah, I mean a full disclosure, we59500:44:37,199 --> 00:44:40,039don't really have much exposure to theChinese markets in like Ali, Baba and59600:44:40,000 --> 00:44:44,039all. We have a little,but most of what we're in for exposure59700:44:44,079 --> 00:44:46,599wise is win, which is aMacau and that's the gambling stock over Yeah,59800:44:46,599 --> 00:44:51,000we got out of all the Chinesetransparency. Yeah, we got out59900:44:51,000 --> 00:44:52,880of half a win right now,but we just like it because that ten60000:44:52,960 --> 00:44:57,239year, there's gonna be no moreCasino's Bill for ten years in that area.60100:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,880I think probably our biggest exposure toChina is Win and Starbucks. Again,60200:45:01,480 --> 00:45:07,159China is starbucks number one market now? Is they building a new Starbucks60300:45:07,159 --> 00:45:09,559on average every nine hours? Speakingof Starbucks is still like a worldwide like60400:45:10,079 --> 00:45:14,440not so much, not necessarily justChina right now, but they do move60500:45:14,519 --> 00:45:20,599with China as the Chinese economy givesgood reports. Starbucks like that as a60600:45:20,719 --> 00:45:24,639Chinese economy economy numbers come in weeks. I don't like that, but I60700:45:24,679 --> 00:45:30,119definitely think Starbucks is one of thosestocks that I've looked at that have hugely60800:45:30,199 --> 00:45:32,960lagged the market, and it's agreat company. Right in these type of60900:45:34,039 --> 00:45:37,599environments, it's really hard to findstocks to buy that haven't already run up.61000:45:37,679 --> 00:45:39,880It is, and you know,a few come to my mind,61100:45:40,119 --> 00:45:47,159and it's Disney and Starbucks and Raytheonand Raytheon, Raytheon that's brand new.61200:45:47,320 --> 00:45:52,239Yeah, And so you look atthose stocks and those are stocks you're comfortable61300:45:52,239 --> 00:45:53,880owning for five ten years, right, they're great companies. You know,61400:45:53,920 --> 00:45:57,719they're not going anywhere. It mayjust not be their time right now.61500:45:58,079 --> 00:46:00,360Another one's Target, But I talkedabout it his monologue, how that got61600:46:00,480 --> 00:46:05,480hit because of their whole movement againstthe anti woke or whatever. But they61700:46:05,480 --> 00:46:07,519got away from a quick They're not. They didn't get hit as hard as61800:46:07,519 --> 00:46:09,719an eyeser bush. And I wasa bush just laid off hundreds of employees.61900:46:09,840 --> 00:46:14,320And we were talking about the differentdemographics of Target, Like people who62000:46:14,320 --> 00:46:19,440go to Target weren't normally very conservative, right, and people who were drinking62100:46:19,440 --> 00:46:23,320by Light normally were conservatives. Sothe people the way bud Light you know,62200:46:23,440 --> 00:46:28,760made their demographic mad, that's gonnastick. The way Target their demographic62300:46:29,119 --> 00:46:32,920wasn't really there anyways on that politicalspectrum, bud Light is made just a62400:46:34,000 --> 00:46:37,760giant mistake. And yeah, nowbud Light's gonna continue to stick. But62500:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,480I don't think targets dilemma is gonnastick as long as you're seeing it with62600:46:40,639 --> 00:46:45,840less competitor. Constellation Brands Stock hasbeen killing it ever since that whole fiasco62700:46:45,840 --> 00:46:47,679because they took over as the numberone beer with Mandelo. Yeah, had62800:46:47,719 --> 00:46:52,280great earnings last quarter and they're comingup on another quarter with bud Light still62900:46:52,280 --> 00:46:57,000and shambles with this whole thing.I think was it Cores that reported earnings63000:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,559this week and they were up tenpercent after reporting. I mean, all63100:47:00,599 --> 00:47:05,199the other beer companies are really takingadvantage. You're very well, Modelo,63200:47:05,320 --> 00:47:07,679Cores, bud Lights, what youwant to buy? Right, I said,63300:47:07,719 --> 00:47:09,599screw bud Light, They're going Coresand Modelo. And I've been so63400:47:09,639 --> 00:47:14,599surprised by how many people I've talkedto that really care about that they won't63500:47:14,679 --> 00:47:15,880drinking, and how they do care, how it has become a whole thing63600:47:15,920 --> 00:47:21,480there. Yeah, it's and Ithought it was maybe a one month fad.63700:47:21,559 --> 00:47:25,559No, it's it's it's sticking.That's amazing that something like that can63800:47:25,679 --> 00:47:30,960ruin an entire company. Right again, we appreciate you joining us on this63900:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,679Sunday morning. Um, looks likewe're going to be in for a little64000:47:32,719 --> 00:47:36,360bit of cooler weather next week,maybe back to normal, that would be64100:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,519wonderful. Is often wonder what itwas like to live in Phoenix. We64200:47:38,559 --> 00:47:43,679now know not good. We'll beback in a few minutes. Again,64300:47:43,719 --> 00:47:53,840thanks for joining us on the moneymatter shows. It's a welcome back to64400:47:53,880 --> 00:47:57,239the Money Matters Show. My nameis Todd Glick. I'm here with Dean64500:47:57,280 --> 00:48:00,840Greenberg, David Sherwood, and DylanGreenberg. It's been a fun week in64600:48:00,880 --> 00:48:02,639the markets. As we said,we had the Federal Reserve come out on64700:48:02,679 --> 00:48:07,519Wednesday, raised another twenty five basispoints on the week. The dal Jones64800:48:07,559 --> 00:48:10,840finally broke its thirteen day winning streak. It failed on Thursday to eke out64900:48:10,880 --> 00:48:15,400a record tying fourteen, which wouldhave tied the record in nineteen eighty seven.65000:48:15,440 --> 00:48:19,159Still finished up on the week pointseven percent. The SMP up one65100:48:19,199 --> 00:48:21,960percent. Believe it or not,SMP has been up nine weeks out of65200:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,639the last eleven on an absolute tear. Nazdak led the way this week,65300:48:24,719 --> 00:48:30,039up two percent on the back ofthose big corporate earnings, mostly off of65400:48:30,159 --> 00:48:32,800Meta Russell two thousand, The midcapsup one percent, and the equal weighted65500:48:34,079 --> 00:48:37,760only up point two showing that overallit was the big companies that led the65600:48:37,800 --> 00:48:42,480way for the SMP five hundred thisweek. We did and we did tie65700:48:42,519 --> 00:48:45,480to the I may misunderstood, butwe did tie the record in nineteen eighty65800:48:45,519 --> 00:48:49,519seven, but we didn't tie therecord, not the all time record,65900:48:49,559 --> 00:48:53,199which would have taken one more dayin eighteen ninety seven, and that was66000:48:53,320 --> 00:48:59,559a Dylan said it was the docmarket even run even around DA and look66100:48:59,599 --> 00:49:02,559it up, it was one yearold. It's the second year of the66200:49:02,639 --> 00:49:07,199Dow Jones Industrial average. Gold hadlost seven bucks on a week we said66300:49:07,239 --> 00:49:08,800it. Oil was up three anda half bucks. He had a three66400:49:08,880 --> 00:49:15,079month high at eighty fifty goal downseven bucks to nineteen sixty six. Bitcoin66500:49:15,199 --> 00:49:21,159keeps edging lower after the big Junerally thirty nine through shid me twenty nine66600:49:21,280 --> 00:49:25,800three last week, and the regionalbank index just continues to be a spaceship,66700:49:25,840 --> 00:49:30,320which is good because the regional bankingcrisis was what sent us into the66800:49:30,440 --> 00:49:37,199tailspin earlier. Earlier, long yearyep, yep. The low on the66900:49:37,360 --> 00:49:43,159regional bank ETF Dylan was on Maythe fourth, actually, and stock was67000:49:43,280 --> 00:49:45,880up five percent this week. It'sa four month high. It's forty percent67100:49:46,599 --> 00:49:50,719above the low it hit on Maythe fourth. You know the interesting thing67200:49:50,719 --> 00:49:54,840about oil is I saw a reportthat says energy companies are reporting the steepest67300:49:54,880 --> 00:50:01,599decline in operating rigs in the lastthree years. So that can't help prices67400:50:01,679 --> 00:50:07,360going down right less supply less operatingrigs means price go up. It's going67500:50:07,440 --> 00:50:12,920to be really interesting how the fatcan combat. You know, I think67600:50:13,199 --> 00:50:15,960he was very smart saying I'm focusingon the core, you know, PC67700:50:16,159 --> 00:50:21,440and CPI, because that removes theenergy picture out of it. Because,67800:50:21,519 --> 00:50:24,400like you said, we should seesome energy increasing, we should see the67900:50:24,400 --> 00:50:29,400headline increase next time in August.And because of the energy. It's just68000:50:29,400 --> 00:50:36,360so frustrating to see our country gofrom energy efficient to dependent again upon people68100:50:36,440 --> 00:50:40,280that are not that dependable. Window. Yeah, it's very frustrating, very68200:50:40,280 --> 00:50:45,119frustrating that oil companies. And Ican't even imagine working for an oil company68300:50:45,199 --> 00:50:51,159that has to be doubly frustrating ortripli frustrating. Um. Every week I68400:50:51,159 --> 00:50:53,599talked a little bit about electric vehicles. This week it's about electric vehicle stocks.68500:50:54,400 --> 00:51:00,519Tesla was downgraded to sell at ubs. They said recent gains fully account68600:51:00,559 --> 00:51:05,679for the demand boost that came fromlower prices. The one thing analysts may68700:51:05,719 --> 00:51:07,079be missing, this is from menow. The one thing the analysts may68800:51:07,119 --> 00:51:15,119be missing is the value of thecharging stations that Tesla has become dominant in68900:51:15,679 --> 00:51:20,920Tesla's the Tesla's charging stations you seethem everywhere. Ford has gone that way,69000:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,639GM's gone that way, Volvo,a Rivian and others perhaps will join.69100:51:25,039 --> 00:51:29,320I saw an article last week wheresome of the companies are trying to69200:51:29,599 --> 00:51:32,639go off and start their own chargingcompany. BMW was one of them.69300:51:32,719 --> 00:51:36,719They're going to start their own chargingstations, and well they were doing like69400:51:36,760 --> 00:51:40,280a United there's like five or fouryeah, three four, five yeah,69500:51:40,400 --> 00:51:45,559right, all join up, andbut they're starting from zero. Tesla has69600:51:45,559 --> 00:51:50,599twenty thousands of trying to have theresources of five different big companies, and69700:51:50,679 --> 00:51:52,639they're just they're just missing it.Though. I think that I think investors69800:51:52,639 --> 00:51:57,000are maybe or analysts maybe are missingthat every time you go to one of69900:51:57,000 --> 00:52:02,119those super charters, it's twenty fivethirty bucks every single time. And between70000:52:02,159 --> 00:52:06,880the time that I got my carand the time I had my home charger70100:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,960installed, I went three weeks ofpretty much hate in this car because I70200:52:10,039 --> 00:52:14,159had to go to superchargers. Butthere are a lot of people that live70300:52:14,199 --> 00:52:20,079in apartments and complexes where they can'thave a two hundred and forty volt charger70400:52:20,480 --> 00:52:22,440or outlet I'm sorry, outlets,and so they have to go to these70500:52:22,480 --> 00:52:28,599superchargers in addition, anyone who's takentheir car out of town has to go70600:52:28,639 --> 00:52:30,840to a supercharger. My daughter livesin Orange County, and when she goes70700:52:30,880 --> 00:52:36,119up to Los Angeles to visit herfriends or for a business, it's about70800:52:36,159 --> 00:52:38,360one hundred mile bust Sam as Phoenix. She has to go to the supercharger70900:52:38,400 --> 00:52:43,880before she can come home. Twentyto thirty bucks every single time. Millions71000:52:43,880 --> 00:52:47,119of people doing that every single day. That's going to be important. I71100:52:47,159 --> 00:52:53,599wonder what kind of electric costs thatcost Tesla as far as obviously the charge71200:52:53,639 --> 00:52:57,679twenty five or thirty bucks, theelectric for the chargers free for Tesla.71300:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,280Yeah right, they have to payinteresting, yeah, interest. It would71400:53:00,280 --> 00:53:04,719be a good question related to that. GM was down four percent on two71500:53:04,800 --> 00:53:10,440the despite reporting better than expected quarterlyresults. They're electric vehicle deliveries for the71600:53:10,519 --> 00:53:15,599second quarter were fifteen thousand, fiveto sixty two. Now, you may71700:53:15,639 --> 00:53:22,400recall that Tesla delivered four hundred andsixty six thousand, GM delivered fifteen thousand71800:53:22,880 --> 00:53:29,239Ford they delivered UH fourteen thousand,eight hundred and forty three, So fourteen71900:53:29,280 --> 00:53:32,199thousand for Ford, fifteen thousand forGM, four hundred and sixty six thousand72000:53:32,280 --> 00:53:36,239for Tesla. Yeah, so whatyou've got is Tesla versus the world,72100:53:36,360 --> 00:53:42,360and Tesla is winning. It's justthere. Did Ford has wonderful electric products,72200:53:42,400 --> 00:53:46,440the F one hundred pickup, theMoche car, I think is the72300:53:46,440 --> 00:53:50,400coolest electric car out there. Youjust can't get them. You can't get72400:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,320your hands on them. When Isee one around town, it's like,72500:53:52,360 --> 00:53:57,920oh there, you know it's it'sit's it's way more special than a Tesla72600:53:57,840 --> 00:54:04,280could. They're so rare that's ridiculous. And that's the problem that they're running72700:54:04,320 --> 00:54:09,239into. GM and Ford are bothlosing billions of dollars on these on this72800:54:09,360 --> 00:54:15,360electric vehicle arm of their business,and they're trying to compete with somebody that's72900:54:15,400 --> 00:54:20,039been doing it for fourteen years.And the people that've been doing it for73000:54:20,119 --> 00:54:22,840fourteen years Den have it figured outright, They've been ahead of the game.73100:54:24,159 --> 00:54:30,360But I still think, like you, people getting these cause of finding73200:54:30,400 --> 00:54:34,039that it's not exactly what they thoughtit was going to be. The car73300:54:34,079 --> 00:54:39,239itself running, yes, but themileage on it, finding places to plug73400:54:39,239 --> 00:54:44,039it in different, Yeah, itis. I will say it's the most73500:54:44,480 --> 00:54:50,280spectacular experience I've ever had in anautomobile. It is quiet, it is73600:54:51,119 --> 00:54:55,280smooth, it is fast like lightning. But charging is an issue, and73700:54:55,440 --> 00:55:00,480range is an issue. And Ican't believe fourteen years down the road they've73800:55:00,480 --> 00:55:06,320managed to stretch the range by aboutfifteen twenty percent more. That's it,73900:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,199because they've had these costs for tenyears fourteen, yeah, fourteen, two74000:55:09,239 --> 00:55:13,360thousand and eight. I remember toportion about ten maybe not ten, maybe74100:55:13,360 --> 00:55:15,840eight years ago. They came outwith all the electrics and they they wanted74200:55:15,880 --> 00:55:21,559me to try one, and andI hated it because you're saying it's quiet.74300:55:21,639 --> 00:55:23,679It's so quiet you don't even knowwhat's going. I love to hear74400:55:23,719 --> 00:55:27,840it. Yeah, that is true. Yeah, some people really like that74500:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,239feedback from the engine. So thatI did, I was like, I74600:55:30,239 --> 00:55:34,599didn't even know the call was going. I didn't know it was on the74700:55:34,679 --> 00:55:37,119thing that's the most addictive to meabout it is the speed. And that's74800:55:37,159 --> 00:55:40,119and I'm not talking about, youknow, going seventy miles an hour down74900:55:40,159 --> 00:55:44,679Broadway. I'm talking about the abilityto dart in and out of traffic,75000:55:44,719 --> 00:55:49,760the ability to get into traffic,and that's so much safer way traffic.75100:55:49,960 --> 00:55:54,400The acceleration right, the acceleration it. I think it decreases the risk of75200:55:54,559 --> 00:55:59,400driving the car. There's things youcan do that you wouldn't be able to75300:55:59,400 --> 00:56:02,079do in a gas part automobile.But Dan, you're right, range is75400:56:02,119 --> 00:56:07,039still a problem. Now. Toyotaannounced took a couple of weeks ago that75500:56:07,239 --> 00:56:10,760in the lab they've come up witha solid state battery that will have a75600:56:10,840 --> 00:56:15,320seven hundred and fifty mile range andcharge in ten minutes. If that were75700:56:15,360 --> 00:56:19,440to happen, that's a game changer. Huge, that's a game changer.75800:56:19,519 --> 00:56:22,360And we start talking about gasoline atfour bucks a gallon. I couldn't tell75900:56:22,360 --> 00:56:27,199you what gas is right now becausethey don't buy any What a shame,76000:56:27,320 --> 00:56:30,800right, you know, technology isexponential, so it's only a matter of76100:56:30,800 --> 00:56:32,599a time. Just because it tookten years to do that one big increase,76200:56:32,679 --> 00:56:36,639that means the next time it shouldonly take five and then they'll they'll76300:56:36,679 --> 00:56:38,480get disfigured out. And will itchange the planet? No, it's not76400:56:38,519 --> 00:56:40,719a change. Well, let's putit this way, Dave. Here's where76500:56:40,719 --> 00:56:45,159the gas is. I filled outmy cause it only had about thirty five76600:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,440forty miles left. I filled itup to the top. It was thirty76700:56:47,440 --> 00:56:53,320dollars less. This time, thirtydollars less Filipo tank. Then when wow,76800:56:53,400 --> 00:56:57,960that was away so two months ago. Because gasoline prices are rising,76900:56:58,039 --> 00:57:00,480right, I'm just telling them thirtydollars less. Yeah, I was happy.77000:57:00,639 --> 00:57:04,119I know that. I all,I know. That's been about twenty77100:57:04,119 --> 00:57:07,840five hundred dollars a year on gasolineand now I'm spending a zero. Now77200:57:07,840 --> 00:57:09,960you're just spending a lot of timein the heat trying to plug it in.77300:57:10,519 --> 00:57:13,599Oh no, no timing to heat. What are you talking about?77400:57:13,639 --> 00:57:15,039So so all the solo stuff,you know, we gotta do is we77500:57:15,039 --> 00:57:21,519gotta get somebody on here that actuallydoes solar also, you know, talk77600:57:21,559 --> 00:57:25,079about where that industry is going andand uh why it's if it's effective and77700:57:25,159 --> 00:57:30,159not effective, and well obviously they'lltell us effective. But yeah, but77800:57:30,199 --> 00:57:32,920we should talk to about that.We should bring it all in here because77900:57:32,920 --> 00:57:36,800there's a few companies in town hereand we know a few people will have78000:57:36,880 --> 00:57:38,760them come on the radio and talkabout what it does and how it does78100:57:38,800 --> 00:57:44,039it and what's the future of it. You know, because I tell you78200:57:44,079 --> 00:57:46,280fourteen thousand cars by Ford that doesn'tseem like a lot, you know,78300:57:46,440 --> 00:57:50,360no, none, It's it's likenothing, right, it's not about four78400:57:50,480 --> 00:57:52,920hundred and sixty six thousand, yeah, everything. But is that because the78500:57:53,039 --> 00:58:00,559Ford, the person buying the Fordis more I want an American car that78600:58:00,559 --> 00:58:02,320that's not on electric. I don'twant to go through all the stuff because78700:58:02,360 --> 00:58:06,960it's obviously it's a lower lower pricecar. Well, it's the fact that78800:58:07,000 --> 00:58:08,400also it takes a year, notmuch. It's not much lower price.78900:58:08,559 --> 00:58:13,840It takes a year to get yourcar. Yeah, it takes yeah.79000:58:13,960 --> 00:58:16,320Yeah, they're just they're just notvery good at it yet. Um,79100:58:16,400 --> 00:58:20,119if they would get good at it, I think they could give Tesla run79200:58:20,159 --> 00:58:22,320for their money. It was thatthat way of appeasing the government. Right79300:58:22,360 --> 00:58:27,039now that they're working towards it andreally don't care. Maybe they're just not79400:58:27,119 --> 00:58:30,000that into it. I know Farley, the CEO of Ford, has been79500:58:30,079 --> 00:58:34,800really big on They talk it,but then they get subsidized by the oil79600:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,639companies they're doing. The good newsis they're doing really really well on the79700:58:37,639 --> 00:58:40,400other side of the business. Youknow. I think they call that Ford79800:58:40,440 --> 00:58:46,760Blue, and the electric vehicle sideof the the UH business is called Model79900:58:46,880 --> 00:58:51,800E. I think that's hilarious.I think that's very clever. Model.80000:58:52,039 --> 00:58:54,320I think it's Model Blue, whichis the gas power, and then Model80100:58:54,360 --> 00:58:58,920E, which I thought was prettypretty cute. I don't say Model blue.80200:58:59,039 --> 00:59:00,440Why not like Model G. Idon't know why they called it blue,80300:59:00,480 --> 00:59:07,039probably because Ford's Here's how Solar's doingup. First Solar stock up one80400:59:07,079 --> 00:59:10,320hundred and sixty percent in the lasttwelve months, added another ten percent on80500:59:10,360 --> 00:59:15,880Friday. Amazing that income for themost recent quarter fifty percent above expectations.80600:59:15,039 --> 00:59:19,880Did it finish up ten percent?Obviously? Obviously I was going to say,80700:59:20,039 --> 00:59:22,840because I was watching First Solo.It was really interesting. It was80800:59:22,920 --> 00:59:27,039up thirteen percent to start today andthen midday it was zero percent. Lost80900:59:27,280 --> 00:59:30,000back, lost the game. We'llbe back. Guys, appreciate your listen81000:59:30,000 --> 00:59:31,480to. It's very about We're inthe first half of the second hour.81100:59:32,079 --> 00:59:35,719The first we got another four.Yeah, yeah, we're all good.81200:59:35,880 --> 00:59:38,079He got called away, so hegot called away to screwed up. Sorry81300:59:38,559 --> 00:59:42,079to wrap up, I wanted totalk a little bit about all auto loans81400:59:42,119 --> 00:59:45,280because more Americans are getting turned downfor auto loans. Uh. The rejection81500:59:45,360 --> 00:59:51,480rate has almost doubled since late twentytwenty two. So um not going to81600:59:51,559 --> 00:59:55,599be a huge factor when it comesto GDP. Auto isn't a huge input,81700:59:55,719 --> 01:00:00,159but something to keep note of.Rates are high. Yep, it's81801:00:00,159 --> 01:00:04,039on auto. Owns are hiding superseven eighty nine percent, even with good81901:00:04,039 --> 01:00:07,559credit. You know, it's funny, you know, I got a lease82001:00:07,480 --> 01:00:12,760and it's cheaper for me to buythe car because the car is worth more82101:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,840now than the lease. Yeah,so I just decided to buy it.82201:00:16,119 --> 01:00:19,719I did. At the end ofthe day, value means everything to me.82301:00:20,079 --> 01:00:22,320It's not just all I got.I'm just gonna spend money. I82401:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,920want value. It's hard to it'shard not to buy your car if you82501:00:25,960 --> 01:00:29,159can buy it and sell it formore than it's worth. You know,82601:00:29,199 --> 01:00:31,119we talked about I do I do. You know, we talked about electric82701:00:31,199 --> 01:00:37,519vehicles. But let's talk a littlebit about gasoline. We've wondered on this82801:00:37,559 --> 01:00:43,039show for a while why people standand these are sitting these long lines at82901:00:43,079 --> 01:00:46,760Costco to get gas that's roughly thesame price as it is anywhere else in83001:00:46,800 --> 01:00:52,239town. And our my friend Carlinform me that it's because Costco, and83101:00:52,280 --> 01:00:58,559I didn't know about this has whatthey call top tier gasoline, and top83201:00:58,599 --> 01:01:02,519tier gasoline, which is which isadds as more detergent to the gasoline.83301:01:02,519 --> 01:01:07,320It's actually as a separate class ofpremium gasoline called top tier, adds more83401:01:07,400 --> 01:01:14,280detergent to the gasoline. It keepsyour engine from the fuel injectors, keeps83501:01:14,280 --> 01:01:19,639the fuel injectors from from clogging up. And so the reason people go to83601:01:19,679 --> 01:01:22,719Costco is because you can get toptier gasoline, which is what Costico carries83701:01:23,400 --> 01:01:28,880at a low prices. Now there'sother in fairness, there's other top tier83801:01:28,880 --> 01:01:34,719gas providers, but as you lookat Costco's prices, those that have prices83901:01:34,760 --> 01:01:40,920that are similar to Costco are generallyin the Irvington South Campbell Park area.84001:01:42,559 --> 01:01:45,119So if you live midtown, that'snot real convenient to drive over there.84101:01:45,880 --> 01:01:49,960So that's the reason that when yougo by costically you see these long lines.84201:01:50,039 --> 01:01:52,559Not that the gas is necessarily alot cheaper, but also you're still84301:01:52,599 --> 01:01:57,480painting more for the premium version ofthe gasoline. You paint more than your84401:01:57,480 --> 01:02:02,199otherwise would if you have just notwell compared to what it because if you84501:02:02,280 --> 01:02:06,039had, even if you're at Costco, you have the basic version or the84601:02:06,079 --> 01:02:07,519top tier, that's going to bea price difference. No, No,84701:02:08,159 --> 01:02:13,679the only gasole the only premium gasolinethe Costico carries is top tier. So84801:02:14,239 --> 01:02:17,480Costco only carries one version of gas. No, Todd, listen to me,84901:02:19,039 --> 01:02:22,000premium gas. I know that regular. What I'm trying to tell you85001:02:22,119 --> 01:02:27,079is if you have unregular gas thatdoesn't clear the fuel injectors eventually, the85101:02:27,079 --> 01:02:30,800theory is you have to buy newfuel injectors. That cost is already baked85201:02:30,840 --> 01:02:35,360into the extra every round you're gettingfor gas. I don't I don't pretend85301:02:35,400 --> 01:02:38,039to be an expert on gas,but the bottom line is people. Well,85401:02:38,079 --> 01:02:40,880first of all, a lot ofpeople are at Costcal already, so85501:02:40,920 --> 01:02:45,480it's no big stretch to just stopthere. And and it is five to85601:02:45,519 --> 01:02:47,880ten minutes it takes to you knowthat you wouldn't spend somewhere else. Big85701:02:47,960 --> 01:02:52,000deal. Five to ten minutes,you know you're getting high quality gas at85801:02:52,039 --> 01:02:55,159low prices. That's the bottom line. Now, is the de Churgent added85901:02:55,199 --> 01:03:00,400to their regular and to their theirmid grade? I have no idea because86001:03:00,400 --> 01:03:05,000I'm not a gas expert, butthe answer to that question is number one,86101:03:05,039 --> 01:03:07,960the people are already there anyway.Number Two, you're getting as high86201:03:07,079 --> 01:03:15,119quality gas as you can get atlow prices. That's kind of that's I86301:03:15,119 --> 01:03:22,440thought, that's kind of intreaty.Oh um, Microsoft forty four percent this86401:03:22,519 --> 01:03:27,360year reported revenue and it didn't comeabove expectations, but drop four percent.86501:03:28,400 --> 01:03:30,679Yeah, we actually found that asa little buying opportunity, yep, because86601:03:30,679 --> 01:03:34,960it's been been on a tarror recently. So we bought a little bit,86701:03:34,960 --> 01:03:37,360not a ton, but just attitudea little bit. Well if you didn't86801:03:37,360 --> 01:03:38,320have it, that's why you puta little bit on. Yeah, right86901:03:38,360 --> 01:03:40,559there, just got our feet wet. Yeah, we discussed, uh.87001:03:40,679 --> 01:03:45,280I mean, obviously my monologue,I talked about when markets are doing what87101:03:45,280 --> 01:03:47,360they're doing and you're trying to getin but don't want to just get burning87201:03:47,440 --> 01:03:51,239coming down, look for the stocksthat have retreated a little bit. That87301:03:51,360 --> 01:03:53,880a good quality stocks, I e. Microsoft, The other one was raytheon87401:03:54,280 --> 01:03:58,119and the other one one was onthe under one third it was Target.87501:03:58,639 --> 01:04:00,960Starbucks too, were talked about Yeah, yeah in Sawbucks. I mean,87601:04:01,360 --> 01:04:05,920look for opportunities, just start tobuild a little position, knowing it'd be87701:04:05,960 --> 01:04:11,159a little volatile. But like everything, I mean, all these stocks that87801:04:11,320 --> 01:04:13,880come down, I mean and Ilook at Bowling, No one wanted bowling87901:04:13,880 --> 01:04:17,039at ninety nine. I'm just gonnabring up ball, right, Yeah.88001:04:17,079 --> 01:04:20,039And they had all the problems,all the problems, all the problems,88101:04:20,280 --> 01:04:24,039and then all of a sudden boom, hey, Intel off the ground at88201:04:24,079 --> 01:04:27,039twenty four, back to what thirtyfour thirty five dollars? Now, yeah,88301:04:27,119 --> 01:04:30,760I mean, you know, thesegood quality companies over time figure it88401:04:30,800 --> 01:04:36,199out. You know, it's thebiggest one of them all. Ge I88501:04:36,280 --> 01:04:40,800know they as I know they dida reverse split. Okay, but even88601:04:40,840 --> 01:04:43,639after the reverse split that I'll makeit all new highs No, I didn't.88701:04:43,639 --> 01:04:45,760Then. One thing you want todo when when a company reverse splits88801:04:46,079 --> 01:04:48,719is you want to get out.Yep, you go. It's been dan.88901:04:48,880 --> 01:04:51,119You and I both know that's thekiss of death. It's different.89001:04:51,159 --> 01:04:57,480They pulled it off again. HG. Is an exception. In twenty89101:04:57,519 --> 01:05:00,440twenty one, they did a onefor eight reverse splay that immediately sent the89201:05:00,519 --> 01:05:04,320shares lower because everybody knows when youdo did it from what you get out89301:05:04,400 --> 01:05:08,320six or seven dollars? Yeah?I was down in there, yeah,89401:05:08,360 --> 01:05:11,920because I remember the side was aboutforty fifty bucks there and now what is89501:05:11,920 --> 01:05:15,079one hundred and twenty or something?Right, is it stabilized in mid Its89601:05:15,119 --> 01:05:18,519stabilized in mid twenty twenty two,and it's more than doubled since then.89701:05:18,840 --> 01:05:23,159Look at the regional banks, Lookat a Lions Bank. Yeah, cut89801:05:23,159 --> 01:05:25,480down to eleven that day, butyou wouldn't get it, but you could89901:05:25,480 --> 01:05:29,519have gotten between fifteen and twenty fiftyone bucks. Yeah, we were talking.90001:05:29,519 --> 01:05:32,760We talked about the regional bank etfas forty percent since the may Low.90101:05:32,920 --> 01:05:41,440Yeah May may Gie's been hit asix year high on Tuesday and they90201:05:41,519 --> 01:05:45,639reported stronger than expected erneys. Theyboosted full year guidance. Den you talked90301:05:45,639 --> 01:05:49,400about Intel, it's been a laggeredfor years, rebounded thirty three percent this90401:05:49,480 --> 01:05:54,679year, six percent higher. OnFriday, they reported a return to profitability90501:05:55,199 --> 01:05:59,199after two quarters have lost this theninterestingly they give up up beat guidance.90601:05:59,599 --> 01:06:01,360But you know, we're talking aboutall individual stocks and stuff like that.90701:06:01,400 --> 01:06:04,519You can't get to that unless youput the plan together, because you don't90801:06:04,519 --> 01:06:10,199know how much or what your risktolerance is unless you go through the process.90901:06:11,039 --> 01:06:13,960Right, and not only that,I will say, if we go91001:06:14,000 --> 01:06:16,199through the risk tolerance and you havea very low risk tolerance, and then91101:06:16,199 --> 01:06:19,920it's not time for stocks let's takeadvantage of these high interest rates. The91201:06:20,000 --> 01:06:24,239MAGA, that multi year guaranteed annuitywe've talked a lot about on the show.91301:06:24,639 --> 01:06:28,239They have now increased the rates again. Now it's not five point two,91401:06:28,280 --> 01:06:30,519it's five point three percent. Youcan lock in that rate for five91501:06:30,599 --> 01:06:35,519years, compounding guaranteed tax defer.Not only that, if you don't want91601:06:35,519 --> 01:06:39,079to do five years, you cando seven, you can do three.91701:06:39,199 --> 01:06:43,280Obviously rates would be different, buttake advantage. If you are a conservative91801:06:43,280 --> 01:06:45,599person and you have a lot ofmoney in the savings a bank that's only91901:06:45,639 --> 01:06:49,079earning four percent, and I knowa lot of savings accounts have up to92001:06:49,239 --> 01:06:55,880their ap wise to try to keepthose reserves at their banks. But you92101:06:56,719 --> 01:07:00,679don't give up an extra one percentjust because you think it's the most safe92201:07:00,679 --> 01:07:02,239place in the world. At theend of the day, the banks are92301:07:02,280 --> 01:07:05,920only insured up to two hundred andfifty right now. The MIGA is insured92401:07:05,960 --> 01:07:09,119up to two fifty two. Butthen you look at the treasuries, you're92501:07:09,119 --> 01:07:12,519insured one hundred percent, right andyou have more liquidity. You won't get92601:07:12,519 --> 01:07:15,880the same five point three for fiveyears. Because of the inversion that we92701:07:15,920 --> 01:07:18,239have in the yield curve. Butthere are a lot of opportunities for safe92801:07:18,320 --> 01:07:24,039money, and so coming to usdoing the financial plan, we can see92901:07:24,079 --> 01:07:27,559whether you are a safe money candidateor a candidate to take advantage of some93001:07:27,599 --> 01:07:30,360of these lower earning stocks where wecan get in. There are great companies93101:07:30,440 --> 01:07:33,039you'd love to own over the nextfive to ten years. One thing that93201:07:33,079 --> 01:07:35,960comes to mind when you're talking aboutthis is why why would I lock in93301:07:36,440 --> 01:07:41,199five years if I can do treasuriesthat are totally liquid, And of course93401:07:41,239 --> 01:07:44,599the region for that is a fiveyear treasury pan about four Yeah, it's93501:07:44,599 --> 01:07:49,639four percent because because the market believesthere's going to begin ourcation, you divide93601:07:49,639 --> 01:07:53,440it up one two three, andthen you do the miga out to fifty93701:07:53,480 --> 01:07:58,800year miga. Okay, you're makingfun of me again. Day Hello New93801:07:58,840 --> 01:08:00,679York came out, think about that. So so yeah, five hundred thousand,93901:08:01,119 --> 01:08:03,679you do one hundred, one hundred, one hundred, and then two94001:08:03,760 --> 01:08:09,079hundred, right, and then youtake in what we were talking about earlier,94101:08:09,159 --> 01:08:13,079the ultra conservative investor. You takethe pres the interest off of it,94201:08:13,280 --> 01:08:15,600and now you put it into theindex. Is you still have your94301:08:15,640 --> 01:08:20,079preservation of capital, and then youget a little bit of an upside push94401:08:20,119 --> 01:08:25,239with the money going into the SPfive hundred, the NAVSAC whatever. It94501:08:25,239 --> 01:08:28,760would be. Very typical arrow youand I have had in our quivers for94601:08:28,760 --> 01:08:34,960forty years is zero coupon bonds asa protection with stock investments that went away,94701:08:35,199 --> 01:08:39,439something away that went away for aboutfour or five years. Something we94801:08:39,479 --> 01:08:42,960also notice when we do the financialplan is when someone is able to put94901:08:43,000 --> 01:08:45,960in all their assets in one page, they finally realize how many different accounts95001:08:45,960 --> 01:08:49,159they have and it kind of stressesthem out because at the end of the95101:08:49,239 --> 01:08:53,800day having to remember all those logging, all those passwords, and it's just95201:08:54,079 --> 01:08:57,960convoluted. When you can really simplifyyour life with a lot of these accounts95301:08:57,960 --> 01:09:00,560being merged into one. A lotof them common ones are the old four95401:09:00,600 --> 01:09:05,119oh one ks or the old TSPs. Yes, we can absolutely roll that95501:09:05,199 --> 01:09:11,720into an IRA. You won't haveany taxable liability. It's just basically changing95601:09:11,720 --> 01:09:15,199the title from a four oh oneK or a TSP into an IRA.95701:09:15,439 --> 01:09:17,000Yeah, the same thing, butmore options. And with that you can95801:09:17,000 --> 01:09:20,319solidate into the IRA and you willbe invested based on your risk tolerance,95901:09:20,520 --> 01:09:23,640which if you had an old fourown k from thirty years ago, you96001:09:23,720 --> 01:09:27,079might not be invested the same wayyou want to be today with your risk96101:09:27,159 --> 01:09:30,399tolerance. So guys, you knowwe always talked that, well one team96201:09:30,479 --> 01:09:33,319here. We work as a team, not individuals. So I'm gonna let96301:09:33,359 --> 01:09:38,359Dylan explain to you the process ifyou actually come in and take advantage of96401:09:38,399 --> 01:09:43,720a no cost, free, complimentarywhatever you want to call it, a96501:09:43,840 --> 01:09:46,800financial plan. So when they walkin the door, yeah, step one96601:09:46,880 --> 01:09:49,640is if you call us or ifyou walk in the door, really call96701:09:49,720 --> 01:09:53,279us or email us, because thenwe can get you going on what you96801:09:53,319 --> 01:09:56,000need to bring to the first meeting. Because that's step one is the first96901:09:56,000 --> 01:09:59,800meeting. We mean, Todd createthe financial plan with you, go through97001:10:00,039 --> 01:10:03,880everything from your expenses to your pensions, to your investments, to your mortgage.97101:10:04,840 --> 01:10:08,479Do you have anything big coming up? Any big expenses? You want97201:10:08,520 --> 01:10:10,680to buy a new car in RV. Do you have a kid's wedding that97301:10:10,760 --> 01:10:13,760you want to pay for? Thatall goes into the financial plan. We97401:10:13,880 --> 01:10:16,680create that and we see we getyour confidence level based off of a Monte97501:10:16,720 --> 01:10:21,359Carlo simulation where it runs a thousanddifferent scenarios of returns based on your portfolio97601:10:21,960 --> 01:10:26,319and if we shoot for something abouteighty percent or higher confidence. If you're97701:10:26,359 --> 01:10:30,279there, then your option, youropportunity of your retirement being successful will be97801:10:30,279 --> 01:10:35,359pretty high. From there, thesecond meeting is our proposal meeting. We97901:10:35,359 --> 01:10:39,920will gather all that information. We'llcome up with our suggestions, our ideas98001:10:40,079 --> 01:10:43,960of how we would build your portfolioif you were to invest with Greenberg Financial.98101:10:44,000 --> 01:10:45,399When you say we we all doit. We all don't look at98201:10:45,399 --> 01:10:47,720it. We all discuss it,come up with Tod and I build it,98301:10:47,760 --> 01:10:49,920and then we run it by youguys, because you've had the forty98401:10:49,960 --> 01:10:54,079years plus experience in the business,and you give us your pointers, your98501:10:54,079 --> 01:10:57,680ideas on how we can help buildthe portfolio to the best of our ability98601:10:58,000 --> 01:11:00,159for their risk dollers. Everything isbased off the tolence on how we build98701:11:00,439 --> 01:11:03,760the portfolios. And here's the bestpart. After we're done with all that98801:11:04,600 --> 01:11:10,199and you guys open up the accounts, we manage it here with their risk98901:11:10,279 --> 01:11:13,640tolerance changes. We can make thisstuff. We don't shove it off to99001:11:13,720 --> 01:11:15,359other people. And then you comein and say, you know, I'm99101:11:15,359 --> 01:11:18,520a little nervous. I got thiscoming up, And they say, well,99201:11:18,560 --> 01:11:21,720you either have to take all yourmoney or not. We can mitigate99301:11:21,720 --> 01:11:25,960your risk for you. We're responsiblefor what is invested in your portfolio.99401:11:26,000 --> 01:11:28,239We're not gonna have to call somebody. If you call us and ask why99501:11:28,279 --> 01:11:30,199you have this stock, why havethis et FF? Why is this?99601:11:30,279 --> 01:11:32,159That We're not gonna have to callsomebody else and be like, why is99701:11:32,199 --> 01:11:34,760that? We can answer you rightthen and there and give you the peace99801:11:34,760 --> 01:11:38,520of mind that we are looking atyour account every day. Also, ask99901:11:38,560 --> 01:11:43,159your advisor how do you mitigate riskother than just bonds, because I guarantee100001:11:43,159 --> 01:11:45,560you most money managers won't have ananswer for that because they're not managing it.100101:11:46,520 --> 01:11:49,560I mean, an institutional money managerknows how to mitigate risk. The100201:11:50,239 --> 01:11:54,319adviser usually pushes off that way,they have someone else to blo. The100301:11:54,359 --> 01:11:57,840advisor will just say, put morebonds and hold on, just hold on.100401:11:57,920 --> 01:12:00,720It's always going to be fine,which didn't work twenty ten. And100501:12:00,720 --> 01:12:03,880it is fine if you're an institution, but if you're if someone that's retiring,100601:12:03,880 --> 01:12:06,880we're getting close to retiring, orwe tired, it's not good to100701:12:06,880 --> 01:12:11,800watch it come all the way downright, We'll be right back. We100801:12:11,840 --> 01:12:15,159do appreciate you're listening and be partof our show. Thank you. It's100901:12:15,199 --> 01:12:27,279all we come back to the MoneyMounting Show. We do appreciate you're listening.101001:12:27,720 --> 01:12:31,279We do have our estate planner heretoday. He's got some interesting stuff101101:12:31,319 --> 01:12:35,000to tell us. He's emailed usall and said, hey, this is101201:12:35,039 --> 01:12:38,439what I want to talk about today, and he said, okay, we'll101301:12:38,439 --> 01:12:43,119talk about it. So I'm misterEdward Wafforn known as Jonathan. How are101401:12:43,159 --> 01:12:45,000you good? How are you guys? Good? Yr? It looks good101501:12:45,039 --> 01:12:47,680today. Let's slip back and all. Yeah, I gotta get a little101601:12:47,720 --> 01:12:51,159great though. Yeah, it comesin from time to time, especially if101701:12:51,159 --> 01:12:59,039I let it grow out. Soso we're talking about these i RS agents101801:12:59,159 --> 01:13:04,640and they were doing he's unappointed.Unappointed? Well, how would you unknown?101901:13:05,960 --> 01:13:11,960I could unannounced visits to people's homes. But apparently that's being stopped.102001:13:12,439 --> 01:13:15,560Yeah, it's being stopped because one, uh, it's dangerous for the agents.102101:13:15,800 --> 01:13:19,399And two, you know, likeanything else in the in the past,102201:13:19,479 --> 01:13:23,720they should give you notice before theycontact you. So they usually cold102301:13:23,800 --> 01:13:26,600give you notice through the mail.You'll never get a phone call from an102401:13:26,640 --> 01:13:30,479IRS agent right out of the blue, uh, and they probably won't be102501:13:30,479 --> 01:13:32,399showing up at your house right outof the blue. Either they'll give you102601:13:32,479 --> 01:13:35,479notice and let you know they're gonnastop by. Will ever be an email?102701:13:36,520 --> 01:13:41,039Will there ever be an email?I don't know that. I would102801:13:41,079 --> 01:13:46,039doubt question went something they said theywill emailed out a little bit sometimes,102901:13:46,680 --> 01:13:49,960um now that they're not gonna bejust knocking on your door. But you103001:13:50,000 --> 01:13:53,039know, it's funny they make itsound like, oh, we don't want103101:13:53,039 --> 01:13:56,439to do that to the people.No, not get it. They're unarmed.103201:13:56,760 --> 01:13:59,159They don't want to go to thepeople that own money. You get103301:13:59,199 --> 01:14:02,359shot. No, I come itup. You know. It's like the103401:14:02,399 --> 01:14:05,720guy that h has to collect moneyfrom people that all on their mortgage or103501:14:06,079 --> 01:14:10,199or their cause or their boats.I did that for a year. Yeah,103601:14:10,479 --> 01:14:12,920it was the collection nature. Didyou do that well? I started103701:14:12,960 --> 01:14:15,920my career with Fort Motor Credit.That's where I started because that's what they103801:14:15,039 --> 01:14:19,880put starting. People do this atall of them because nobody else wants to.103901:14:20,880 --> 01:14:25,000It was horrible and it was alwaysthe same people every month that were104001:14:25,039 --> 01:14:28,079laid on their mortgage, always thesame ones, and you just went knocked104101:14:28,119 --> 01:14:30,520on their door. No, no, we don't go into the houses.104201:14:30,560 --> 01:14:32,399It was just calling them and sendingthem letters. And you know, the104301:14:32,880 --> 01:14:39,039good news about mortgage debt, whichis what I was collecting, is they104401:14:39,279 --> 01:14:42,920just take the house. They've gotpretty good leverage. Yeah. Yeah,104501:14:42,960 --> 01:14:45,720so you a house just couldn't justkeep moving the cause the people I was104601:14:45,760 --> 01:14:48,760calling late on those man, thosecause moved around. If you haven't found104701:14:48,800 --> 01:14:51,680one of those or collecting cars,yeah yeah, those REPO guys had to104801:14:51,720 --> 01:14:55,000go out there and they would siton it. Then they would call it.104901:14:55,079 --> 01:14:57,159Hey, I got the call,Doway, I take it. Now105001:14:57,399 --> 01:15:00,640leave them alone. We'll give them, giveim a few more days, then105101:15:00,680 --> 01:15:04,880boom, you'll never find the caragain. We've had a plethora of interactions105201:15:04,960 --> 01:15:11,920with Jonathan and our clients and willsand trust and there was some real estate105301:15:12,000 --> 01:15:15,319question and and you're working on anothercat. I don't even know what that's105401:15:15,319 --> 01:15:18,960all about now as but you've gota bunch of different things going on,105501:15:19,039 --> 01:15:26,560and we would invite you if youhave needs of a financial planning attorney who105601:15:26,600 --> 01:15:31,279has also a tax skills which israre, that combination very very rare.105701:15:31,720 --> 01:15:36,119Um if you've got something sophisticated thatyou're struggling with, give us a call105801:15:38,039 --> 01:15:41,239would be happy to put you intouch with Jonathan and he's right here in105901:15:41,239 --> 01:15:45,760our office. He's self employed,has his own law firm, but he106001:15:45,880 --> 01:15:50,600is physically in the Greenberg Financial Building. Correct, Yeah, and thank you.106101:15:50,640 --> 01:15:55,800It's it's a great place. Youknow. I love every Sunday chat106201:15:55,880 --> 01:16:00,760with you guys, and it's likea family over here. And I think106301:16:00,800 --> 01:16:03,079that our you know, I couldbounce off ideas with you guys and vice106401:16:03,159 --> 01:16:08,359versa. You know, with thatthat gentleman who called their day excuse me,106501:16:08,920 --> 01:16:14,840um, when we were kicking incometo one of the beneficiaries and we106601:16:14,880 --> 01:16:21,039had to basically what we were doingwas or what they were doing was changing106701:16:21,079 --> 01:16:29,520the terms of an irrevocable trust sothe income was taxable to the beneficiary,106801:16:29,520 --> 01:16:32,880which is usually in your best bet, uh in terms of tax wise,106901:16:32,920 --> 01:16:38,079because you want the beneficiary or anindividual to be taxed and not the trust107001:16:38,239 --> 01:16:43,760because as we as we all know, that trust has compressed tax rates where107101:16:43,840 --> 01:16:45,640if you're a married couple, youcould be in a couple one hundred thousand107201:16:45,680 --> 01:16:50,279dollars and eventually hit that thirty sevenpercent, but with the trust, the107301:16:50,359 --> 01:16:54,520tax rates are compressed. So ifyou have over fifteen thousand and sixteen thousand107401:16:54,560 --> 01:16:58,720dollars of income you'll be taxed atthirty seven percent. And we were working107501:16:58,760 --> 01:17:03,319through the paperwork to get the accountopened. And we're not used to seeing107601:17:03,399 --> 01:17:08,920a revocable trust, or excuse me, an irrevocable trust, which is what107701:17:08,960 --> 01:17:12,279this was. With a social Securitynumber. Those two things just don't go107801:17:12,279 --> 01:17:15,840together. When you see an irrevocabletrust, you expect her to be an107901:17:15,840 --> 01:17:19,479EI N number. And we werewrestling with how this is supposed to work108001:17:19,520 --> 01:17:23,439in and Jonathan, your office isnext to mine. I went, Jonathan,108101:17:24,439 --> 01:17:27,279yeah, busy, yeah, Andit just fell under the Code six108201:17:27,399 --> 01:17:30,680seventy eight rules for grand tour trustand grand toward trusts if you have an108301:17:30,720 --> 01:17:33,159interest in and you know, there'sa bunch of different rules, but in108401:17:33,199 --> 01:17:38,439this case, if you have interestin the income, it becomes a grand108501:17:38,439 --> 01:17:44,920toward trust and income is taxable tothe beneficiary. At that point, I108601:17:45,000 --> 01:17:47,279was gonna go real quick. We'retalking about business accounts a couple of weeks108701:17:47,279 --> 01:17:50,560ago, about why it's important toswitch over to an escort if you're just108801:17:50,600 --> 01:17:56,279finally a schedule c right, Andwe didn't really talk about that on that108901:17:56,319 --> 01:17:58,600show, but I want to spenda little bit time. The reason that's109001:17:58,600 --> 01:18:01,840so valuable is then you can startcontributing to a four o one K exactly109101:18:02,039 --> 01:18:06,319right, and take advantage of furthertax efficiencies that are available to you.109201:18:06,640 --> 01:18:10,920Yeah. So Uh. In fact, I was talking to Dave a couple109301:18:11,039 --> 01:18:15,039days ago and I was saying,Hey, who do you guys do with?109401:18:15,439 --> 01:18:17,359Who do you guys deal with forpayroll? Because I'm filing my twenty109501:18:17,399 --> 01:18:20,920five fifty three. Twenty five fiftythree is a form that you elect the109601:18:21,119 --> 01:18:28,399S Corps status and Uh, basicallyyou become a shareholder and you have to109701:18:28,439 --> 01:18:31,520take payroll. And when you takepayroll, you're you're basically still tax as109801:18:31,560 --> 01:18:35,560you are. Uh, and yourESK or your schedule C, you know,109901:18:35,680 --> 01:18:42,000everything flows to you. But you'reable to take certain benefits of being110001:18:42,000 --> 01:18:45,880an employee, like contributing to afour oh one K and the maximum contributions110101:18:45,920 --> 01:18:54,279what nineteen five ninety with the employermatch, you're twenty two five and then110201:18:54,319 --> 01:18:58,079you get seventy five hundred. Yeah, over fifty right, But I heard110301:18:58,119 --> 01:19:00,760that's going away. You said,well, it's it's for people that make110401:19:00,800 --> 01:19:05,000over one hundred and forty two thousandstarting in twenty twenty five, I believe110501:19:05,079 --> 01:19:09,640it's going to start. It's gonnahave to be after tax contribution. It110601:19:09,640 --> 01:19:13,359can't be a pre tax contribution onthe catchup part. Oh, that's right.110701:19:13,640 --> 01:19:16,960And Jonathan, you're just now makinga change personally personally that I'm doing110801:19:16,960 --> 01:19:21,600with my own firm, and Iwouldn't recommend it if um, you know,110901:19:21,680 --> 01:19:27,439I wouldn't do it. And it'sabsolutely an amazing tax saving opportunity.111001:19:27,680 --> 01:19:30,359If you don't call me, youknow, call your local tax preparer.111101:19:30,439 --> 01:19:31,439They'll tell you the same thing.I mean, yeah, that one case111201:19:31,479 --> 01:19:36,439where this lady for ten years couldhave saved herself probably thirty thousand dollars in111301:19:36,479 --> 01:19:40,760taxes if she was just switching toan escort from the schedule. See,111401:19:40,880 --> 01:19:43,520she probably could have saved it inone year, right, you know?111501:19:43,600 --> 01:19:46,399And depending on how much you make, what is it if I'm if I'm111601:19:46,399 --> 01:19:50,560a sole proprietor, I have alittle company to maybe I'm a mechanic,111701:19:50,600 --> 01:19:55,439maybe I'm a plumber. What whatmakes me want to do that? What111801:19:55,600 --> 01:19:59,039is there something out to watch forif my income is a certain level or111901:19:59,119 --> 01:20:01,319correct? What what is what's thekicker? What's the catalyst? There's usually112001:20:01,319 --> 01:20:05,560a sweet spot. I would say, if you're netting over forty thousand dollars,112101:20:05,560 --> 01:20:09,279you should start considering an escorp,but you have to be an active112201:20:09,279 --> 01:20:13,159member or an act. It shouldbe an active business. So you know,112301:20:13,199 --> 01:20:15,800if you're investing into rental real estateand you you know, and you112401:20:15,800 --> 01:20:19,439guys are financial planners on the sideor for your main business, of course112501:20:19,439 --> 01:20:23,279you're not going to do the escorp. But if you are an actual plumber112601:20:23,319 --> 01:20:29,840or an actual mechanic or an attorney, you would file your SCORP and you112701:20:29,840 --> 01:20:32,239would probably look to see what wouldmake sense. Because yes, there are112801:20:32,279 --> 01:20:35,399some more administration fees, there's payrollthat you're going to have to pay for,112901:20:35,640 --> 01:20:40,960there's another tax return you're going tohave to file. But as long113001:20:41,039 --> 01:20:44,840as that tax savings is more thanthose administration fees, is a benefit,113101:20:45,600 --> 01:20:49,479and the tax savings would be derivedfrom what the tax savings. With an113201:20:49,600 --> 01:20:53,680escorp, you're no longer an owner, you're a shareholder. So there's no113301:20:53,720 --> 01:20:59,319self employment tax. So income thatcomes into the business is not taxable unless113401:20:59,359 --> 01:21:01,840you choose to take it. Isthat am I understand that correctly? There113501:21:01,880 --> 01:21:06,600won't be any self employment tax onit? So you're fifteen point two self113601:21:06,600 --> 01:21:13,439employment tax. If you do anSCORP, you there's no self employment tax113701:21:13,479 --> 01:21:16,239at fifteen point two percent, butyou will have to take payroll and you113801:21:16,239 --> 01:21:20,119will have to do some withholdings.You had a fifteen point two percent raise,113901:21:20,640 --> 01:21:24,199but some of that raise to payfor these other things exactly. But114001:21:24,239 --> 01:21:29,039you only have to pay yourself reasonablecompensation. So what would you there's different114101:21:29,039 --> 01:21:31,000ways to look at it, butwhat would you pay somebody to do your114201:21:31,079 --> 01:21:35,199job? And so if you madetwo hundred thousand dollars and you feel reasonable114301:21:35,239 --> 01:21:40,399compensation is one hundred thousand dollars,you may have saved self employment tax on114401:21:40,399 --> 01:21:44,960one hundred thousand dollars. But justin general terms, and again very general114501:21:45,079 --> 01:21:49,520terms, do you think if someonehas taxable income of forty thousand dollars or114601:21:49,640 --> 01:21:54,479more? I think so it's somethingthat and again it's not casting concrete.114701:21:54,520 --> 01:21:59,039That's just a guideline. So ifyou're out there in your plumber or whatever114801:21:59,319 --> 01:22:00,840and you're making one hundred and ahalf, you probably ought to be thinking114901:22:00,880 --> 01:22:04,000about it. Absolutely, And that'snot even counting the four oh one k115001:22:04,079 --> 01:22:08,920and how that saves on top right, producing your taxable income. There you115101:22:08,960 --> 01:22:12,359go. So if you contribute toa four oh one K at nineteen five,115201:22:12,439 --> 01:22:16,640that twenty two five is tax deductibleand it's a it's deferred income.115301:22:17,600 --> 01:22:21,359Yeah. So there's a lot ofopportunities for business owners and that's why the115401:22:21,399 --> 01:22:26,199financial plan it can be done forindividuals and business owners. We've done multiple115501:22:26,239 --> 01:22:31,359financial plans where we have almost likea two fauceted faceted financial plan where one115601:22:31,359 --> 01:22:35,119of it's personal and then we putin maybe they have three two, three115701:22:35,199 --> 01:22:39,600four businesses. We can put thatin as an entity in the plan showing115801:22:39,640 --> 01:22:43,119when we might sell that asset,what type of taxes we expect is to115901:22:43,239 --> 01:22:46,039spend or have to pay on whenwe get the proceeds from the businesses,116001:22:46,199 --> 01:22:49,680what type of revenue is that businesscurrently making. All that we can be116101:22:49,720 --> 01:22:53,960incorporated into the financial plan. Soyou don't have a full picture just for116201:22:54,000 --> 01:22:58,079yourself, but for your businesses andyour family. Absolutely not. For years,116301:22:58,159 --> 01:23:01,279Dean's been trying to put together hfinancial mall, if you will,116401:23:01,560 --> 01:23:06,479where you walk in and there anythingyou need, whether it be a mortgage,116501:23:06,720 --> 01:23:12,920whether it be a lawyer, whetherit be life insurance, health insurance,116601:23:12,960 --> 01:23:16,920casualty, insurance, money management,accounting, whatever you need, you'd116701:23:16,920 --> 01:23:21,319be able to get that at thefinancial mall shop. And I think you've116801:23:21,840 --> 01:23:27,800you've succeeded in accomplishing that, misterGreenberg. It's getting there. Yeah,116901:23:27,880 --> 01:23:30,039time, Well, that's always gotto work it out. We've had people117001:23:30,079 --> 01:23:33,920in out. You know, yougotta get through it and eventually it sticks,117101:23:34,760 --> 01:23:38,079you know. I think the biggestthing is if you notice, the117201:23:38,119 --> 01:23:42,119people that end up sticking are thepeople that know how to work no work117301:23:42,159 --> 01:23:45,000out as a team. It's notabout them, it's not about I.117401:23:45,159 --> 01:23:49,239It's about week. It's about helpingeach other growing together. Okay, And117501:23:49,680 --> 01:23:54,279in my business I've been forty years, it's hard to find a lot of117601:23:54,279 --> 01:23:58,319people that are the stand team.We even had a situation this past week117701:23:58,359 --> 01:24:01,720where there was an elderly couple thathad a piece of real estate that utility117801:24:01,760 --> 01:24:04,640company was trying to buy from them, and of course that would have been117901:24:04,680 --> 01:24:10,359a huge capital gain, and wewere able to advise them how to counter118001:24:10,439 --> 01:24:15,039that and they ended up with sixtythousand dollars more money than what they would118101:24:15,079 --> 01:24:17,119have had had they not spoken tous. A good So there is a118201:24:17,159 --> 01:24:21,960plethora of things we can do tohelp. Okay, Jonathan, as always,118301:24:21,960 --> 01:24:26,319we'll see you next week. Weappreciate your showing up. You need118401:24:26,359 --> 01:24:30,840some mistake planning. Will's trust doit and he has the same same schedule118501:24:30,880 --> 01:24:34,479we do. When it's costing value, price has got to be lower.118601:24:35,159 --> 01:24:39,479Got to give you your value,and I promise you will. If not,118701:24:39,600 --> 01:24:42,720you come say something to me firstconsol, first consult. We'll be118801:24:42,720 --> 01:24:59,319back will your Money Matters in justa minute. All right, everybody,118901:24:59,319 --> 01:25:01,439we're back. It's last segment.We appreciate you're listening. You know,119001:25:02,399 --> 01:25:06,520if you need to go back andlisten at any of our shows, just119101:25:06,600 --> 01:25:12,199go to Money Matters with Dean Greenberg. It's on all the podcasts. Go119201:25:12,279 --> 01:25:15,359to our website. You can getit on there or just get an iHeart119301:25:15,439 --> 01:25:21,079radio and you'll be able to listenlive. Yeah, take advantage of our119401:25:21,119 --> 01:25:25,079YouTube page. You can find thaton our website as well. All of119501:25:25,079 --> 01:25:29,119our podcasts easily accessible on our podpage. So, and if you go119601:25:29,119 --> 01:25:32,279to a website, YouTube is upon the right hand side. Top.119701:25:33,119 --> 01:25:36,079Okay, and it's that little TVthing on there. Well Mike, isn't119801:25:36,079 --> 01:25:40,720it. But what was a littleMiCT the top? Last on the left,119901:25:40,760 --> 01:25:43,399top left, and that's for anyof the any of the TV.120001:25:43,760 --> 01:25:48,119The TV's on the other one.The TV is what's what's on YouTube?120101:25:48,800 --> 01:25:54,800That shows? All weekly market updatesare shows? Um, yeah, like120201:25:54,840 --> 01:25:57,479I said, the weekly market updates, we post that once a week on120301:25:57,479 --> 01:26:00,840Facebook on Friday's just wrapping up theweek. More shorter videos as well.120401:26:00,960 --> 01:26:06,159There probably gonna be looking and tryto do some new TV shows in September.120501:26:06,199 --> 01:26:12,760Areas. So got more things educationstuff building for sure, Yeah,120601:26:12,800 --> 01:26:15,279definitely education on the YouTube video.We want to build a whole education platform.120701:26:15,279 --> 01:26:18,159So it's not timely. It's notlike this radio show where it's more120801:26:18,199 --> 01:26:24,399current events. It's more just aboutfinancial education. So we're only I mean,120901:26:24,399 --> 01:26:29,399we're about to We're at forty sixhundred now, right, are we121001:26:29,439 --> 01:26:32,439going to hit a new all timehigh on the SMP. Who knows,121101:26:33,600 --> 01:26:39,560well, well, nobody knows thatwhole thing. You make a decision and121201:26:39,640 --> 01:26:42,720you say, okay, I don'tthink there's enough liquidity here. I don't121301:26:42,720 --> 01:26:45,520think there's enough money here, Andall of a sudden, interest rates keep121401:26:45,600 --> 01:26:47,439going high, which is what madethe market go down before, they keep121501:26:47,520 --> 01:26:51,760going higher now. People just takingcash because they have so much on the121601:26:51,800 --> 01:26:56,560sidelines and and putting it into themarket because they don't want to miss out.121701:26:56,600 --> 01:26:58,840I think a lot of the halstogo be going on right now.121801:26:59,239 --> 01:27:02,359But you've seen it like on thaton Thursday when the market was up five121901:27:02,479 --> 01:27:08,079hundred, almost four hundred and theSMP was up forty something closed down thirty.122001:27:08,560 --> 01:27:12,079Let me ask you, it canhappen that you both you you're around122101:27:12,079 --> 01:27:15,239into two thousands. I saw achart in January twenty twenty where now January122201:27:15,279 --> 01:27:19,319two thousand, where the we hada similar interest rate environment with the ten122301:27:19,399 --> 01:27:26,760year um where the nastack was justtaking off and leaving any real return of122401:27:27,119 --> 01:27:30,560the ten year treasury in the dust. And there's a huge divergence there.122501:27:30,560 --> 01:27:32,239And then we had the dot combubble and it all fell off the cliff.122601:27:32,359 --> 01:27:35,720And now what does this feel like? Anything like two thousand? A122701:27:35,760 --> 01:27:41,680little, not not totally. AIthough, is spurring things on if you122801:27:41,840 --> 01:27:45,560notice. Okay, people and watchthe scam is calling you with all these122901:27:45,600 --> 01:27:53,159companies that put AI in it allright, listen, AI still has many123001:27:53,199 --> 01:27:57,399many, many, many many manyyears ago, especially mostly small companies have123101:27:57,520 --> 01:28:04,279nothing. They're all pushing down okay, but Microsoft, you know, Apple,123201:28:05,279 --> 01:28:10,199Google, They all part of thatmeta, the all part of the123301:28:10,239 --> 01:28:12,880big time of the AIS, andthey might buy out some of those other123401:28:12,920 --> 01:28:15,319companies. We don't know what directionis going, Dave, Right, okay,123501:28:15,399 --> 01:28:18,399I mean the other thing a fewyears ago, right, I think123601:28:18,439 --> 01:28:21,520it was eighteen and nineteen, itwas all about the weed stocks. Now123701:28:21,479 --> 01:28:25,439I wanna we're gonna they're gonna approveit, They're gonna. Well, they123801:28:25,439 --> 01:28:28,439did approve it a lot, maybenot federally, but they approved it in123901:28:28,479 --> 01:28:30,640a lot of states. And thestock that was like, I don't know,124001:28:31,039 --> 01:28:34,920uh CSG well, what's her name? It can't be big growth?124101:28:35,039 --> 01:28:39,920Yeah, right, it's thirty ninecents now, yeah, I remember Consolation124201:28:40,000 --> 01:28:43,800Brands bought half the company for thirtynine dollars a year, and I finished124301:28:43,800 --> 01:28:45,920today, I finished Friday at fortyseven tenths and he got the seventy dollars124401:28:45,920 --> 01:28:49,239a share at one point. Yes, the MJETF which is a bunch of124501:28:49,239 --> 01:28:53,840the weed companies, is three dollarsand fifty cents right now. It was124601:28:53,880 --> 01:28:59,079like like fifty todd I would saythe big differences in two thousand a good124701:28:59,199 --> 01:29:04,760twenty five to forty percent of thecompanies in the trading over the counter didn't124801:29:04,800 --> 01:29:09,640have anything in the way of salesproduct. It would just pine the sky124901:29:09,720 --> 01:29:15,640stuff. This is a lot moresolid rally than two thousand, So either125001:29:15,800 --> 01:29:18,039similarities, like Dean said, itfeels a little similar, feels a little125101:29:18,159 --> 01:29:24,439little parabolic, if you will,but the gigantic difference, and it really125201:29:24,520 --> 01:29:28,279is just being driven by seven stocks. It's by seven stocks, and they're125301:29:28,279 --> 01:29:31,960all real, they're all doing great, but they're they're bringing everything along.125401:29:32,720 --> 01:29:34,800Dan. I want to talk alittle bit about treasuries if I can,125501:29:36,319 --> 01:29:42,119because interest rates have risen so far, so fast. Most of the treasury125601:29:42,319 --> 01:29:46,159notes that people are buying in thesecondary market are older and they have lower125701:29:46,199 --> 01:29:50,359interest rates. And I want togive an example if you wanted to get125801:29:50,760 --> 01:29:55,399let's say, for right now,the return on a twelve month treasury is125901:29:55,439 --> 01:29:58,079five percent. Just for simplest,it's a little higher than that, but126001:29:58,479 --> 01:30:01,680let's say it's five percent. Youmight be buying a two I've actually used126101:30:01,720 --> 01:30:05,319a two year a two year note, and maybe that interest rate. The126201:30:05,359 --> 01:30:10,960actual interest rate on those bonds isonly two percent. The coupon rate,126301:30:11,399 --> 01:30:14,000right, So the coupon at theinterest rate. Most people don't know a126401:30:14,000 --> 01:30:16,039coupon means. So the interest rate, which is a coupon is another word126501:30:16,079 --> 01:30:19,439for interest rate. The interest rateon the bond is two percent. So126601:30:19,520 --> 01:30:25,279in order to get that five percent, you're buying that treasury at a discount,126701:30:25,479 --> 01:30:27,159all right, And people say,well, that's good. I'll be126801:30:27,199 --> 01:30:30,560able to get the two percent interest, and then at the end, I'll126901:30:30,600 --> 01:30:33,359be able to sell it and I'llhave a long term capital gain, or127001:30:33,399 --> 01:30:36,720one of the maturs, I'll havea long term capital gain because I will127101:30:36,720 --> 01:30:42,279have held it for two years.Treasury interest payments are not taxable on the127201:30:42,319 --> 01:30:45,560state level, which is good,but that going from ninety four cents.127301:30:45,600 --> 01:30:48,960Again, using my example, ona two year piece of paper that has127401:30:49,000 --> 01:30:53,199a two percent interest rate, you'dneed to buy it at ninety four,127501:30:53,560 --> 01:30:57,680so you get six percent appreciation fourpercent interest over a two year period.127601:30:57,680 --> 01:31:03,880That's five percent a year. Ina weird IRS quirk, Treasury appreciation of127701:31:04,000 --> 01:31:12,119more than twenty five basis points peryear is taxed as regular income, not127801:31:12,279 --> 01:31:15,159capital gains. Right, So inthat particular case, if you bought it127901:31:15,199 --> 01:31:16,720in ninety four, you say,well, it's going to mature to par128001:31:17,279 --> 01:31:21,439so I'm gonna get that six percentat capital gains rates. No, you128101:31:21,479 --> 01:31:28,000won't because that's more than the twentyfive basis points per year, so your128201:31:28,039 --> 01:31:31,000coupon rate has to be very veryclose to your yield worse. I think,128301:31:31,199 --> 01:31:34,640I think when you look at treasuries, you don't want to think in128401:31:34,760 --> 01:31:39,640terms of capital gains period. Justthink of ordinary income. I just think128501:31:39,640 --> 01:31:42,680in terms of ordinary income is easier. You might maybe pick up a little128601:31:42,720 --> 01:31:45,840a few pennies capital gain here andthere, but whether it be zero coupon128701:31:45,920 --> 01:31:51,479bonds or deep discounted treasury notes,think of them as taxable income. Don't128801:31:51,520 --> 01:31:57,039think of them as as capital gains. Great point. I thought it was128901:31:57,119 --> 01:32:00,279kind of interesting, and that's reallyis kind of a quirk for treasuries.129001:32:00,600 --> 01:32:04,439Twenty five basis points a year youget, so if you'd have bought it129101:32:04,439 --> 01:32:09,960at ninety nine and a half,right, then you have capital gains right129201:32:10,079 --> 01:32:15,239on that on that half, whichbrings us back to my conservative income plex129301:32:15,279 --> 01:32:18,000growth model. Yes, I thoughtthat was a good six sig sick.129401:32:18,359 --> 01:32:25,159And the reason is it's for ultraconservative people. There you go, thank129501:32:25,199 --> 01:32:30,640you, cig. That's why Ihave you young guys. You actually listen,129601:32:31,119 --> 01:32:34,439but seriously, uh, because theycan actually hear. So you take129701:32:34,479 --> 01:32:41,800the treasuries. You take the treasuriesand you get them out a discount,129801:32:42,000 --> 01:32:45,840you get an income flow off there. They will give you exactly what you129901:32:45,920 --> 01:32:49,840did if some of you have youhad one hundred thousand dollars and you paid130001:32:50,439 --> 01:32:56,119ninety two thousand form when they mature, you have one hundred thousand. You'll130101:32:56,159 --> 01:33:01,159also have your two percent on thaton those hundred bonds. But here's the130201:33:01,279 --> 01:33:04,199kick of what we do. Now, we take the interest, we take130301:33:04,239 --> 01:33:08,840the difference of that eight thousand,and we take the interest and we invest130401:33:08,960 --> 01:33:14,039it in our ETF model, agrowth model. So you can get a130501:33:14,199 --> 01:33:15,920kick of well, if you havea good deal like this, it's up,130601:33:16,079 --> 01:33:19,720if it's down, say the marketgoes down fifty percent, you will130701:33:19,800 --> 01:33:26,520still have more money from the intereststhat you got and the and the difference130801:33:26,640 --> 01:33:30,399of the of the ninety two onehundred you got, so you'll always have130901:33:30,560 --> 01:33:33,920more than your principle. That's liketo the two year bond example I gave.131001:33:34,000 --> 01:33:38,359If if that were a zero coupon, you probably pay for a two131101:33:38,439 --> 01:33:42,359year ninety cents on the dollar,right, So you got one hundred thousand131201:33:42,359 --> 01:33:45,239dollars. If you put ninety thousanddollars into the zero coupon two years zero131301:33:45,319 --> 01:33:50,239coupon bond, the other ten youcan roll a dice as aggressively as you131401:33:50,359 --> 01:33:54,920want the worst thing to happen.Did you get your money back? Period?131501:33:55,000 --> 01:34:00,119Guaranteed SIG model CIG conservative income plusgrowth. If an interests you call131601:34:00,199 --> 01:34:02,880us, we'll go a little bitwith you. Yeah. Absolutely, And131701:34:02,960 --> 01:34:08,199obviously we've already talked about the megarates increasing five point three percent. Another131801:34:08,279 --> 01:34:13,359great place always been talking about thetreasure ladders. Van guard money market continues131901:34:13,399 --> 01:34:16,520to stay high, elevated at fivepercent ladders. I mean, there's so132001:34:16,720 --> 01:34:19,640much we can do now that wecouldn't do two years ago, three years132101:34:19,640 --> 01:34:24,359ago. Higher interest rates have reallyopened up the door. And also keep132201:34:24,399 --> 01:34:28,399talking this for money that's just sittingin your savings account. But also,132301:34:28,520 --> 01:34:30,880I mean, if you're an investorwho isn't that risky as an investor and132401:34:30,920 --> 01:34:33,920we've had this big run up,it might make sense to take some chips132501:34:33,920 --> 01:34:38,239off the table, take advantage ofthe interest where you're guaranteed, and then132601:34:38,319 --> 01:34:41,600my markets fall down, then takeadvantage of ten percent, take it with132701:34:41,640 --> 01:34:43,960winnings off the table. Put itin the miga locket in a five point132801:34:44,000 --> 01:34:46,640because if in six months the marketsdo drop twenty five percent, you're going132901:34:46,680 --> 01:34:49,319to be kicking yourself knowing that youcould have taken that money locked in.133001:34:49,359 --> 01:34:53,720Then you know that myga at fivepoint three, you're looking at compounding at133101:34:53,800 --> 01:34:57,399once a year. It's almost thirtypercent, almost thirty percent. Right,133201:34:57,600 --> 01:35:01,640you put one hundred grand, no, one hundred grand in air and at133301:35:01,680 --> 01:35:06,439the end of five years you're gonnahave one hundred and thirty grand period or133401:35:06,520 --> 01:35:11,520nearly one with compound period there.Yeah, I mean that. Gosh,133501:35:11,600 --> 01:35:14,520how do you beat that? Yeah, there's no trend. Awefully long time133601:35:14,600 --> 01:35:16,960since we've been able to say somethinglike that. Right, you can make133701:35:17,039 --> 01:35:23,680almost thirty percent over a five yearperiod, guaranteed period. Right. It's133801:35:23,720 --> 01:35:27,960funny. You can say guaranteed buddyinsurance company, right, but we can133901:35:28,039 --> 01:35:30,720never say it, even though that'sbecause they they loll be like crazy.134001:35:30,800 --> 01:35:33,880You know, those insurance companies.They got a lot of violence in Washington.134101:35:34,119 --> 01:35:36,600Buy is zokoon pump on? Doyou what's government's going to give you134201:35:36,680 --> 01:35:41,840the money? Right? But wecan't say it's guaranteed it's not weird.134301:35:41,960 --> 01:35:44,960Yeah, there's word and then Idon't know. The insurance companies, the134401:35:45,039 --> 01:35:48,920way they sell it's incredible. Theynot to mention. They sell annuities on134501:35:49,039 --> 01:35:56,079fear. Might be why they're alsolarge, also large. We were Frantica134601:35:56,159 --> 01:35:59,359one in Des Moines, Iowa thathas two hundred and fifty billion in assets,134701:35:59,600 --> 01:36:02,039right, are you kidding me?It's a little insurance company in Des134801:36:02,079 --> 01:36:05,680Moines, Iowa. Two hundred andfifty billion dollars. Believe it or not.134901:36:05,760 --> 01:36:08,760We'll coming to the end of theshow again. It goes quick,135001:36:10,079 --> 01:36:14,880all right, So give us acall. If you want a complimentary plan135101:36:15,119 --> 01:36:16,840done for you or anyone, you'lljust call us, and it is.135201:36:16,920 --> 01:36:18,960We give it to you. Youdon't have to do business with us to135301:36:19,039 --> 01:36:23,000get it. We do it.We'll be back next week. Will your135401:36:23,039 --> 01:36:28,199money matters? We want everyone tobe happy and to be happy. We135501:36:28,319 --> 01:36:31,439want to be healthy, and ifwe're happy and healthy, we all want135601:36:31,479 --> 01:36:35,520to strive to be prof say it'sall