SP500 hits 5000 level for First Time Ever! How Long Will This Rally Continue?

WEBVTT100:00:00.200 --> 00:00:04.719Well, it's that time again people. It's Sunday morning, it's eight o'clock200:00:05.200 --> 00:00:09.199and this is the Money Matter Showwith Dean Greenberg. We do appreciate you300:00:09.240 --> 00:00:14.759guys just listening, chiming in,listening again, going to the podcast,400:00:14.880 --> 00:00:19.920listening to more and understanding what weare talking about and how we're getting through500:00:19.960 --> 00:00:25.679this entire entire markets, the economy, the political situation, you name it.600:00:25.719 --> 00:00:28.760We're going to talk about it andwe're going to try to go ahead700:00:28.760 --> 00:00:31.760and make some sense of it.But the good news is, guys,800:00:31.800 --> 00:00:36.479the markets have rallied to brand newhighs. I mean, we eclipsed five900:00:36.520 --> 00:00:41.119thousand. Oh man. I rememberwhen the NASDAC hit five thousand. We1000:00:41.159 --> 00:00:44.759never thought we'd get back to that, and now it's at like fifteen thousand,1100:00:45.359 --> 00:00:51.679okay. And the SMP it hittwo thousand, came all the way1200:00:51.719 --> 00:00:55.520back in two, in two thousandand one, in two thousand and eight,1300:00:56.200 --> 00:01:02.280and now look where it is fivethousand. Now a lot of us1400:01:02.320 --> 00:01:07.879scratch your heads about why and howthe markets could be there. We've heard1500:01:07.920 --> 00:01:12.760a lot of well, this isconsolidated. It's the magnificent seven, and1600:01:12.799 --> 00:01:15.079that's why the S and P ismoving so much, and you're right,1700:01:15.159 --> 00:01:22.200it's exactly what's going on. Butnow it's starting to spread out a little1800:01:22.239 --> 00:01:26.079bit more, not not total more, but a little bit more. The1900:01:26.159 --> 00:01:33.760S and P five hundred equal weightedis obviously is lapse is two percent behind2000:01:33.760 --> 00:01:38.000the S and P five hundred,and it's five percent almost four and a2100:01:38.040 --> 00:01:42.359half percent less for the year.So that just tells you it's very,2200:01:42.480 --> 00:01:46.439very concentrated. But they keep goingup and making highs, and that's why2300:01:46.519 --> 00:01:49.079part of your portfolio has to bein the in the indexes, and that's2400:01:49.079 --> 00:01:53.719why we have that Greenberg Financial GroupModel GfG model we call it because it's2500:01:53.760 --> 00:02:00.599in the indexes, and that partof our portfolio is doing what the markets2600:02:00.799 --> 00:02:04.519the indexes are telling you, butits portfolio manageress. You just can't put.2700:02:04.560 --> 00:02:06.840You put it all in the Sand P and leave it there because2800:02:07.000 --> 00:02:09.560obviously it goes up and down,and that's what people fret. Obviously,2900:02:09.599 --> 00:02:15.919there's allocations and if your growth oriented, you're you're probably doing better than the3000:02:15.000 --> 00:02:20.479S and P five hundred because you'rein some of these magnificent seven or six.3100:02:22.199 --> 00:02:23.960Because I don't like Netflix, theycut they always put Netflix. I3200:02:24.000 --> 00:02:30.199know Netflix does well, but Ijust really flex there's other stocks out there.3300:02:30.599 --> 00:02:36.520But I'm gonna say something and Iwant you to listen. It's like3400:02:36.879 --> 00:02:39.680I'm trying to figure out if thisis here to stay or not. And3500:02:39.719 --> 00:02:45.039I'm gonna tell you my feelings rightafter I give you a a disclaimer.3600:02:46.080 --> 00:02:47.439The show was brought to you,which is Money Mount. It is brought3700:02:47.439 --> 00:02:53.479to you by Greenberg Financial Group.Greenberg Financial Group is both a registered and3800:02:53.479 --> 00:02:58.800investment advisory and they broke a dealer. They're registered with the SEC, members3900:02:58.840 --> 00:03:01.479of Fenuine, members of SIP.We talk about this every week. You4000:03:01.560 --> 00:03:05.800have to know your risk tolerance.You have to know your how much risk4100:03:05.840 --> 00:03:07.879you're willing to take. You haveto know what all the risks are and4200:03:07.960 --> 00:03:14.120anything you invest in. One wayof getting around its allocations. We always4300:03:14.159 --> 00:03:16.560talk about it, don't have tobe over allocated in one one stock,4400:03:16.680 --> 00:03:23.599one area, one anything, oneindustry, one sector. Understand how much4500:03:23.759 --> 00:03:29.280you can handle on volatility, whichthen determines what kind of stocks you and4600:03:29.319 --> 00:03:34.599not everybody can handle these tech stocksthat are moving to the moon, because4700:03:34.599 --> 00:03:38.960they also come down. Sometimes whenthey come down, sometimes that's what creates4800:03:38.960 --> 00:03:42.479the stress and everything else for people. But there's a lot of stocks out4900:03:42.520 --> 00:03:45.879there that have not moved yet,and I believe they will. And we5000:03:45.919 --> 00:03:50.199talk about opportunities all the time.But before I get into that, I5100:03:50.240 --> 00:03:53.199want to talk about where I thinkwe're at, what's going on. I5200:03:53.199 --> 00:03:55.879mean, you know, you tryto say, Okay, this market shouldn't5300:03:55.919 --> 00:03:59.240be here. There's this problem,there's that problem. We know it.5400:03:59.520 --> 00:04:01.879We've got to wader prices. Wehave a credit crisis, we have too5500:04:01.919 --> 00:04:06.159much debt. We have wars goingon in both Europe and the Middle East,5600:04:06.159 --> 00:04:10.400and we have a lot of problemsgoing on in Asia, in Taiwan.5700:04:10.560 --> 00:04:15.439And although we're China ruffling up things, we get that. But ether5800:04:15.479 --> 00:04:19.279stop and think, maybe that's whatthe governments around the world want. Maybe5900:04:19.279 --> 00:04:23.720that's the way they keep the economiesgoing and everyone making money, is that6000:04:23.800 --> 00:04:27.399they just have this and they controlit and they don't give it. Damn6100:04:27.439 --> 00:04:30.079about people dying, which is theworst part, because we as people would6200:04:30.120 --> 00:04:34.000never want a war. I don'twant people dying. We don't want to6300:04:34.040 --> 00:04:40.639loved ones dying. It's not likewe're back, you know, in the6400:04:40.759 --> 00:04:45.240in the Middle Ages, when youknow everyone's trying to get territory, and6500:04:45.240 --> 00:04:47.759and and and and fighting and youknow, you got your horses, you6600:04:47.839 --> 00:04:51.800got your muskets, whatever you're doing, uh, you know, and hand6700:04:51.839 --> 00:04:57.120fighting swords, who knows, youknow, the vikings invading other areas.6800:04:57.120 --> 00:05:00.240This is not what we got now. So it always stretch, which is6900:05:00.240 --> 00:05:03.079my head of why we even havea war, Because if you ever put7000:05:03.079 --> 00:05:05.279it on the ballot, do youwant to have a war? Ninety percent7100:05:05.279 --> 00:05:09.839of the people say absolutely not,And not just in America. It would7200:05:09.879 --> 00:05:13.839be common folk people in the MiddleEast, in Asia, in China,7300:05:14.040 --> 00:05:16.399in Russia and Ukraine, you nameit. They don't want to have a7400:05:16.439 --> 00:05:20.680war. But for some reason,the people that govern us all think that7500:05:20.720 --> 00:05:25.720we should have a war. Wehave two wars now, and all we're7600:05:25.759 --> 00:05:28.759doing is funding it, and wedon't fund the people that need to be7700:05:28.879 --> 00:05:34.000funded in America because we have tofund these other countries. Our education system7800:05:34.160 --> 00:05:40.399is horrible in most places, horrible. Right here in Arizona. We'll rank7900:05:40.480 --> 00:05:43.839what forty seven, forty eight forhow many years in a row, and8000:05:43.920 --> 00:05:50.720yet we do nothing about it.Education is the key to success. That's8100:05:50.759 --> 00:05:55.920how you move forward, that's howyou keep number one in economy. When8200:05:55.959 --> 00:06:01.759you have technology better than everybody else. Because the technology and the weaponry makes8300:06:01.800 --> 00:06:04.959it great, we have a greatmilitary power. Can you imagine if the8400:06:05.040 --> 00:06:11.839leaders when they get together and tryto discuss the new Green Deal or how8500:06:11.879 --> 00:06:15.720we gonna bring down carbon, actuallytalked about how are we going to stop8600:06:15.759 --> 00:06:20.720wards? Why don't we all justdecide we don't want to have a war.8700:06:20.800 --> 00:06:24.759How do we all decide we don'twant nuclear anymore? How about of8800:06:24.879 --> 00:06:29.000any country like I ran against nuclear, we just question them, don't let8900:06:29.079 --> 00:06:33.680them have it? How about that? Then you can tell me that the9000:06:33.759 --> 00:06:43.439governments aren't involved in all this backdoor crookedness of trying to keep everything going9100:06:44.839 --> 00:06:49.959their powers, because I don't believeit. In the meantime, what it9200:06:50.000 --> 00:06:54.519does is we keep giving this moneyaway. We got to keep our economy9300:06:54.519 --> 00:06:58.000going. How old are we goingto pay a debt with the inter state?9400:06:58.079 --> 00:07:01.120Sire? We need go forward?Now? Are the numbers true or9500:07:01.160 --> 00:07:03.680not? I don't know. I'mgonna go with them. They just revise9600:07:03.720 --> 00:07:10.759thea CPA, the consumer price indexlower on a revision. So which numbody9700:07:10.800 --> 00:07:14.040you believe the first one that saidwe're going so much or the second one9800:07:14.279 --> 00:07:20.519that's lower either way, doesn't matter. Either way. We look at the9900:07:20.600 --> 00:07:26.680markets right now masking what's really goingon. Most people can't afford to eat.10000:07:27.879 --> 00:07:30.279Most people can't afford to pay thebills. Credit cards are going through10100:07:30.319 --> 00:07:36.839the roof. Delinquencies are going throughthe roof because the average paycheck doesn't pay10200:07:36.920 --> 00:07:45.000all the bills for the middle classand lower Americans. And that's what we10300:07:45.120 --> 00:07:46.720got to worry about. That's whatwe need to do. That's how we10400:07:46.800 --> 00:07:55.079need to fix it. And allwe have is politics, this border thing.10500:07:55.639 --> 00:07:58.839They say, oh, Trump's doingit with politics, or the other10600:07:58.920 --> 00:08:01.600site says, Biden's do it forpolitics. Let me let you in on10700:08:01.639 --> 00:08:07.319a little secret, people, Itis politics. It's all politics, and10800:08:07.399 --> 00:08:11.439it's not for you or me.It's all about power and who is gonna10900:08:11.480 --> 00:08:16.439control. Of course, it makessense all the sense of the world for11000:08:16.600 --> 00:08:20.000Trump to say no, nobody votefor it, because why are we gonna11100:08:20.000 --> 00:08:24.720give him a win? Basically,six seven months before or before they before11200:08:24.720 --> 00:08:28.079the election and the other side said, oh, they don't care about the11300:08:28.120 --> 00:08:31.600border. They just want to goahead and stop the stop it, which11400:08:31.639 --> 00:08:35.279is all a bunch of ball becauseyou know, don well, if they11500:08:35.320 --> 00:08:39.200cared about the border. They wouldhave done something a year ago, two11600:08:39.279 --> 00:08:43.159years ago, if they cared aboutthe border. If Biden cared about the11700:08:43.200 --> 00:08:48.000border, he would have done somethingwhen he got into office and kept his11800:08:48.120 --> 00:08:54.039pen in his pocket. You changedthe rules, you changed the laws,11900:08:54.559 --> 00:08:58.039and then you don't uphold the laws. You're gonna have this Biden, this12000:08:58.480 --> 00:09:03.320border crisis, and for someone tosay we have a border crisis now and12100:09:03.159 --> 00:09:09.120it's becoming a out of control afterwe've been talking about this for two years12200:09:09.960 --> 00:09:13.960and they do nothing about it untilnow because it's political to tie it in12300:09:15.080 --> 00:09:20.360with giving aid to Ukraine in Israel. It's all political both sides. It's12400:09:20.360 --> 00:09:24.720all political. And if you doubtit or you take one side as well,12500:09:24.840 --> 00:09:28.120it's not political on the Republican side, Oh, it's not political on12600:09:28.159 --> 00:09:31.919the Democrat side. Then you arethe problem too, because too we the12700:09:31.960 --> 00:09:39.360people call them out and say whatit is really is. It's all about12800:09:39.399 --> 00:09:43.440them and nothing about us. Becauseeven when they make a bill, it's12900:09:43.480 --> 00:09:46.799not even a good enough bill totake care of what we need to take13000:09:46.799 --> 00:09:52.360care of. And where's all themoney go. That's the other thing.13100:09:54.360 --> 00:09:58.320Why isn't the media asking what happened? To all the billions of dollars that13200:09:58.360 --> 00:10:03.080we have given to Ukraine, doesit go to where we need it to13300:10:03.120 --> 00:10:05.679go or is it lining in thepockets of some of the richer people there?13400:10:07.519 --> 00:10:11.279Where is the money going that goesto Israel? Where is it?13500:10:11.759 --> 00:10:18.799Where's the accountability? Stop asking theAmerican people to continue to pay If we13600:10:18.799 --> 00:10:22.399don't have accountability where every dollar goes. They say, well, we give13700:10:22.440 --> 00:10:26.799it to them, and then they'regonna buy the defense and the missiles and13800:10:26.840 --> 00:10:31.240everything from US. Okay, great, that's gonna help our companies, our13900:10:31.279 --> 00:10:37.679workers, our economy and America.Okay, great. Is anybody accounting for14000:10:37.720 --> 00:10:41.759that? Is anybody seeing or watchingthe dollar cash flow, where it's going,14100:10:41.799 --> 00:10:43.919where it's coming back, how muchit's going. And I'm not talking14200:10:43.960 --> 00:10:48.519about going to the pennies. I'mtalking about how about just tracking to the14300:10:48.519 --> 00:10:52.159one hundred millions worth. Okay,let's be off by a hundred million.14400:10:52.360 --> 00:10:54.879That doesn't seem to be module onfive hundred million. I mean, look14500:10:54.879 --> 00:10:56.840at the U of A being downtwo hundred and some one million. All14600:10:56.919 --> 00:11:03.559right, track it, account forit, see where it is. But14700:11:03.600 --> 00:11:07.799you know, if Biden really caredabout the border, why did he stop14800:11:07.879 --> 00:11:11.919us putting those box cars up tostop people coming in on the Arizona border?14900:11:13.360 --> 00:11:16.480Why is he so against Texas doingtheir own thing with the bob wire15000:11:16.799 --> 00:11:20.679trying to keep people out and itis working, isn't it amazing? When15100:11:20.720 --> 00:11:24.840you put up a blockade, youcan't go under, you can't go over.15200:11:24.960 --> 00:11:31.320It stops people from coming in.How about stopping the water coming through15300:11:31.320 --> 00:11:35.000the dyke now and then coming upwith a comprehensive plan that will work for15400:11:35.080 --> 00:11:39.759both parties. And it's got tobe a compromise, because people, if15500:11:39.759 --> 00:11:43.440we do not compromise on a party, we'll never get anything done. Let15600:11:43.559 --> 00:11:50.159immigrants, real immigrants, not troublemaking immigrants come to our country, ones15700:11:50.200 --> 00:11:58.279that really need asylum. Bring themin and then put up immigrant camps,15800:11:58.039 --> 00:12:07.759funded and public, and become aneducation institution where these people become assimilated into15900:12:07.799 --> 00:12:11.720the American way. Teach them English. They have to learn English, they16000:12:11.799 --> 00:12:16.080got to pass test. And ifthey're in house, if they're in hospitality,16100:12:16.639 --> 00:12:20.240bring in all the all the bighospitality places and let them teach them.16200:12:20.279 --> 00:12:22.600And let this be a job marketfor them. If it's technology,16300:12:24.120 --> 00:12:28.080teach them bring into tech companies fundit at least then you know what,16400:12:28.120 --> 00:12:35.120they're getting education and they're getting meals, and they're getting bored and they're andy's16500:12:35.240 --> 00:12:39.440keep them warm and they're learning.Those that want to do it. Great,16600:12:39.519 --> 00:12:45.399If you don't, you go home. Okay. Stop just letting them16700:12:45.440 --> 00:12:48.519flood into the country unaccounted for,not knowing where it is. And now16800:12:50.360 --> 00:12:54.480they're so unabashed, the beating uppeople. They're killing people, you know,16900:12:54.679 --> 00:12:58.320in our city here, right herein Tucson, the crime wave has17000:12:58.440 --> 00:13:07.360risen Ooral Valley, Dove, mountainStone Canyon, Pimaccounting, Pema Canyon,17100:13:09.039 --> 00:13:13.799Foothills. There's robberies going on.What are we waiting for the one that17200:13:13.879 --> 00:13:18.120goes bad? Oh, it's okay, Insurance to take care of it.17300:13:18.279 --> 00:13:24.279People aren't home, No one's gettinghurt. It's frightening. It's frightening.17400:13:24.399 --> 00:13:28.360And you know what, what doyou think happens to people that have no17500:13:28.519 --> 00:13:35.879money, no job, no food, no shelter. They do not care17600:13:35.080 --> 00:13:39.639about laws and regulations, especially becausethey know they're probably not even going to17700:13:39.720 --> 00:13:48.639get put in jail or deported.You do things that go against your moralistic17800:13:48.399 --> 00:13:56.240values when it's life or death,and then the bad ones don't even care17900:13:56.279 --> 00:14:00.200about that. The gang members,you see them beaten up police heat,18000:14:01.519 --> 00:14:07.360beating up people, old ladies,And that's just what we see. That's18100:14:07.399 --> 00:14:11.200just what we hear about. Imaginehow much more is really going on.18200:14:13.799 --> 00:14:20.840Shut the damn board it down now, Biden, shut it down. Okay,18300:14:20.679 --> 00:14:24.759then work on a plan and thenask some money. But let's go.18400:14:24.919 --> 00:14:30.240Let's be accountable for all the moneywe have given everybody. I get18500:14:30.279 --> 00:14:33.759it. We have to give moneyto Israel, that's our hold. We18600:14:33.879 --> 00:14:35.240have to be there. But dowe have to give it to Hamas?18700:14:35.240 --> 00:14:39.000Also? Do we have to giveit to Iran? Also? What good18800:14:39.080 --> 00:14:43.559is that? Oh, we'll giveyou money, I Ran, you just18900:14:43.600 --> 00:14:50.440stop doing this right because they areso trustworthy. Same to Amas, don't19000:14:50.440 --> 00:14:54.120worry a moss. They you know, I know you got billions of dollars19100:14:54.120 --> 00:14:58.679and you killed thousands of Israelis.But it's okay, Well we'll help you19200:14:58.720 --> 00:15:09.519out. Are you kidding? IsraelIs our friends, that's who we support.19300:15:09.279 --> 00:15:15.679Get your butt out of Iran.I don't know why every Democrat needs19400:15:15.720 --> 00:15:22.000to be friendly with Iran. Whyall they do is take us to the19500:15:22.080 --> 00:15:26.600cleaners and create problems. Unless that'swhat we're looking for, unless that's what19600:15:26.639 --> 00:15:33.559we hope for. Obama did it, and now Biden's doing it. We19700:15:33.639 --> 00:15:35.759had sanctions on them, take offthe sanctions and give them billions of dollars.19800:15:37.879 --> 00:15:43.799Obama dropped billions of dollars in cash. Biden gave him billions of dollars.19900:15:43.480 --> 00:15:48.240Next thing, you know, wehave an Israeli Amas war. And20000:15:48.320 --> 00:15:52.120don't tell me the Israelis can't takethem out. You guys all remember the20100:15:52.159 --> 00:15:56.639sixth Day War. Boom, youcome in, You're done, You're finished,20200:15:56.720 --> 00:16:00.480it's over. Why is this takingmonths probably going to years. Has20300:16:00.519 --> 00:16:07.240anybody asked that question? Because Israelcan take them out very quickly. They20400:16:07.279 --> 00:16:10.919stop it quickly, get done withit all. Why is it linger?20500:16:11.279 --> 00:16:18.559Why does it linger? It doesn'tneed to. These all affect our economy20600:16:18.559 --> 00:16:22.159and everything's going on. So bringingback to our economy. Our economy is20700:16:22.200 --> 00:16:27.039doing great, which is why Itold you that the Federal Reserve was not20800:16:27.039 --> 00:16:30.879going to lower registrates, especially inthe first or second quarter. And they're20900:16:30.879 --> 00:16:36.320not going to do it right beforethe election. I'd be shocked unless something21000:16:36.440 --> 00:16:45.960happens that they need to inject stimulatethe economy. As long as we're doing21100:16:45.960 --> 00:16:48.480what we're doing. Don't expect toFed to lower rates. It makes no21200:16:48.679 --> 00:16:55.559sense. Lowering rates, especially whenthe markets are doing well and the economy21300:16:55.600 --> 00:17:00.399is doing well, is a inflationaryway of doing things. They don't have21400:17:00.440 --> 00:17:04.279to turn around and raise rates again. Let the markets just be, Let21500:17:04.400 --> 00:17:11.000capitalism just be. If we needto help, because all of a sudden21600:17:11.039 --> 00:17:15.240we're in a liquidity crisis, that'swhen the FED needs to inject stimulus.21700:17:17.799 --> 00:17:21.480If we grow too fast like wedid and we have too much inflation,21800:17:21.880 --> 00:17:26.319they have to raise rates to lowerit. But what is Congress done?21900:17:26.799 --> 00:17:32.079Absolutely nothing. And that's why peoplecan't even understand because they don't really understand22000:17:32.119 --> 00:17:37.720economics. We knew going into thatpandemic that everything would shut down and that22100:17:37.759 --> 00:17:41.079we had to give tons of moneyout so we can keep our economy going.22200:17:41.920 --> 00:17:45.799So why aren't they smart enough toknow that if we're going to this22300:17:45.839 --> 00:17:48.759is gonna happen. How are wegoing to stop runaway inflation and prices getting22400:17:48.799 --> 00:17:53.440away raised for inflation getting away,because that's not going backwards. We hit22500:17:53.440 --> 00:18:00.319a whole another level right now,and this is where we are making all22600:18:00.359 --> 00:18:03.440new hides in the market with peoplescared that the market can't go higher.22700:18:04.880 --> 00:18:08.240Well, we all know the pullbackscan happen anytime. I don't see anything22800:18:08.319 --> 00:18:12.240unless it's a black Swan event forthe rest of this year on pullbacks not22900:18:12.279 --> 00:18:18.480being buying opportunities. I know stocksare running away, the technologies are running23000:18:18.480 --> 00:18:22.720away thirty forty points a week orsomething like that. It's not going to23100:18:22.799 --> 00:18:32.039keep going. But but are wein a situation that were one hundred years23200:18:32.680 --> 00:18:37.759from the Roaring twenties? We hadthe pandemic over one hundred years ago,23300:18:38.119 --> 00:18:47.359we had history repeat itself? Ishistory repeating itself right now under our nose23400:18:48.240 --> 00:18:52.119and we don't realize it? That'sthe question. We won't know it till23500:18:52.160 --> 00:18:56.720it's over. But if you lookat it rather than just being scared that23600:18:56.720 --> 00:19:04.519it's going up, you don't selleverything. This is not a situation do23700:19:04.640 --> 00:19:12.359I buy or sell everything. It'sa trim and hold. Hold what you23800:19:12.440 --> 00:19:17.559have, trim back if it goes, hire, trim back until you have23900:19:18.160 --> 00:19:22.960enough in your portfolio. You trimthe positions and you look for other opportunities24000:19:22.079 --> 00:19:26.000with the money you take off thetable, because someday one day these other24100:19:26.039 --> 00:19:32.680stocks that are not moving, we'llmove. I've got two stocks in mind24200:19:32.799 --> 00:19:36.920that I'm looking at for good reasonthat have not moved. Good quality companies.24300:19:37.039 --> 00:19:41.599Well one has moved a little bitthat I believe will one day catch24400:19:41.680 --> 00:19:48.720fire can move like these other stocks. We're in a new movement in America24500:19:48.799 --> 00:19:55.640right now. The first one wasthe computer, when everybody started getting personal24600:19:55.680 --> 00:20:03.480computers. That changed the world.One was when we got the uh,24700:20:03.559 --> 00:20:07.079the smartphones. Everything we can doon the computer, we were able to24800:20:07.200 --> 00:20:15.160do in our hand and handheld devices. That's incredible. That changed the world24900:20:18.000 --> 00:20:21.599we're about to enter right now.And that's why these stocks, these companies25000:20:21.640 --> 00:20:29.519are running so much. The AIworld. Now, you're gonna hear a25100:20:29.599 --> 00:20:34.240lot of people pushing stocks that you'venever heard of. Be careful, be25200:20:34.400 --> 00:20:37.319careful, well, this is goingto be the next Google, This is25300:20:37.359 --> 00:20:40.559going to be the next the Video, This is going to be the next25400:20:40.599 --> 00:20:45.960A m D. You can gobroke with those stocks. This is not25500:20:45.079 --> 00:20:49.279the dot com era that everything withthe dot com is going to go up25600:20:49.319 --> 00:20:56.680until it doesn't. These AI companies, the Microsoft, then Videos, the25700:20:56.720 --> 00:21:02.200Amazons, the Googles, these there'sa bunch of them out there. Those25800:21:02.240 --> 00:21:04.160are the major ones. They aregonna go up and down. They're gonna25900:21:04.200 --> 00:21:10.359get overvalued and come back, butthey will still be the companies that will26000:21:10.680 --> 00:21:17.359springboard the AI area. Now wedon't have we have low unemployment. Do26100:21:17.400 --> 00:21:18.799you ever scratch your head? Well, how does unemployment so low? How26200:21:18.799 --> 00:21:22.799do we keep going? What arewe gonna do? AI is going to26300:21:22.839 --> 00:21:26.160make a difference. AI is goingto allow us to have a smaller workforce26400:21:26.720 --> 00:21:33.359and have more production. That way, it creates what more earnings? We26500:21:33.480 --> 00:21:37.480got more earnings? Guess what?The stocks go up, the valuations go26600:21:37.599 --> 00:21:41.319up. Now there'll be a timethat these stocks are gonna TOPBAC, go26700:21:41.440 --> 00:21:44.079back and forth. People are gonnawant to panic out a little bit,26800:21:44.200 --> 00:21:48.000and I can see them dropping twentypercent in the day at some time in26900:21:48.039 --> 00:21:52.279the future. I'm not so surewhich ones will when, especially the big27000:21:52.279 --> 00:21:56.359ones, because then they'll be buyingthat comes straight back into it. It's27100:21:56.400 --> 00:21:59.960the fringe ones. I want towarn you about, the ones that every27200:22:00.200 --> 00:22:03.519newsletter everybody's touts and says this isgonna be the one or the phone call,27300:22:03.680 --> 00:22:08.839whatever it is that you get AIAI AI, be careful. I27400:22:08.880 --> 00:22:12.920don't care about that two dollars,five dollars seven dollars stock that you think27500:22:12.920 --> 00:22:18.119will be the next one that's there. Deal with the ones that are here.27600:22:18.519 --> 00:22:22.720There'll be some of those. Howyou gonna know about those? You're27700:22:22.759 --> 00:22:26.920not the private equity firms. You'renot the ones that are there researching those.27800:22:29.079 --> 00:22:30.799We know this. If they're anygood in the private you know what,27900:22:32.799 --> 00:22:37.240Google, Apple, Meta, oneof them are gonna buy them for28000:22:37.279 --> 00:22:41.400a couple of billion dollars. It'snothing. The other thing is is the28100:22:41.480 --> 00:22:45.160vision the vision glasses. Apple comingout with this new Vision Pro. That's28200:22:45.200 --> 00:22:48.920a whole new world that we're goinginto. We think it's just for gaming28300:22:48.960 --> 00:22:56.279and watching movies. This is gonnachange everything. A medical industry is gonna28400:22:56.359 --> 00:23:03.160change the The aviation going to changethe way we train people is gonna change28500:23:03.400 --> 00:23:07.000the way we entertain people is goingto change. They see it, they28600:23:07.039 --> 00:23:10.720know it. We don't know ityet. But the evolution for the next28700:23:10.799 --> 00:23:15.279ten years is there. And whatis going to power it the AI chich28800:23:15.319 --> 00:23:18.240Which company is going to keep advancing, Which companies aren't there yet that are28900:23:18.240 --> 00:23:23.559going to be there. Just becareful of buying the nextanivity in the video29000:23:23.640 --> 00:23:30.599when you had a video or AMDand if you're not in those, there's29100:23:30.599 --> 00:23:33.000others, and if not, don'tworry about it because a lot of people29200:23:33.039 --> 00:23:37.640are already at the point. Idon't need to do anything but just watch29300:23:37.640 --> 00:23:40.440my account go up a little.I don't need to make eighteen twenty percent.29400:23:40.799 --> 00:23:44.359I want to be in good qualitystocks that can pay some dividends and29500:23:44.400 --> 00:23:48.319make my cut and make it move. If I can make a seven eight29600:23:48.319 --> 00:23:51.519percent return, ten percent, elevenpercent and good year, I'm happy.29700:23:51.799 --> 00:23:56.200You can get four five percent nowin good bonds. That's an income.29800:23:56.920 --> 00:24:00.680It's a that's how you have tolook at it. So the growth world29900:24:00.759 --> 00:24:04.519technology, AI, it's it's it'sa game changer, and that's what can30000:24:04.440 --> 00:24:07.759can propel us. Is this therowing twenties. We won't know about it,30100:24:07.799 --> 00:24:10.960but if it keeps going and wegot another two, three, four30200:24:11.000 --> 00:24:14.640years, I want to be partof it. With the amount of money30300:24:14.640 --> 00:24:18.640that I'm willing to risk and bevolatile, I want a lot of my30400:24:18.759 --> 00:24:25.160money safe and earning some nice interestbalance portfolio. But the rest will come30500:24:25.160 --> 00:24:27.400to us. I appreciate you listening. We'll be right back. This is30600:24:27.440 --> 00:24:32.559the Money Matter Show. Welcome back, everybody. This is the Money Matter30700:24:32.640 --> 00:24:34.839Show. We have a full housetoday. We got Dave Sherwood back in30800:24:34.880 --> 00:24:38.839the house. We got Dylan Greenberg, we got Todd. How are you30900:24:38.880 --> 00:24:41.519Todd? You took over last week. I appreciate that you did a good31000:24:41.599 --> 00:24:45.160job with Dylan and Iron. Daveout, thank you? You forget my31100:24:45.240 --> 00:24:47.680last name? What forget my lastname? I want I know your last31200:24:47.759 --> 00:24:52.440name? Glicky glick. You dida nice job, you Ti, Thank31300:24:52.480 --> 00:24:59.720you. Where is Sebastian Huh he'scoming back? He wonder, just wonder.31400:25:00.000 --> 00:25:03.799I'm surprised you didn't say this isthe Super Bowl Sunday Money Matters Show.31500:25:03.960 --> 00:25:07.559We'll get there. We'll give youa pretictions replay. What's the replay31600:25:07.599 --> 00:25:11.599of two thousand? It's going tobe the same score? Wrong, bang31700:25:11.640 --> 00:25:15.839bang, thirty one twenty chiefs.That sounds about right. Can we bet31800:25:15.039 --> 00:25:19.359on that? Sure? Thirty chiefswhich want to bet? It sounds about31900:25:19.440 --> 00:25:22.960right. That's what it was intwo thousand, four years ago, same32000:25:22.039 --> 00:25:32.640exact matchup, past performances, no, no seasonality. This is how the32100:25:32.680 --> 00:25:38.079Super Bowl should end. That garage. Dave, all right, record highs.32200:25:40.920 --> 00:25:47.000Your opinion, should people go berunning for the hills or what I32300:25:47.000 --> 00:25:49.920think your monologue really said it,well, I think this is this is32400:25:51.400 --> 00:25:52.799a new era. You know,you always hear well, it's different this32500:25:52.880 --> 00:25:56.880time. And of course you andI know from decades of doing this that32600:25:56.039 --> 00:26:00.839is generally not different this time,but this one might actually be a little32700:26:00.880 --> 00:26:03.240different with the AI in there.Well, I'm not saying I'm not saying32800:26:03.279 --> 00:26:08.000it's different, because different would meanall the crap stocks are going to go32900:26:08.079 --> 00:26:11.359up, and it doesn't matter.Well, it's the same if you think33000:26:11.359 --> 00:26:15.200about it, like when the computerstarted coming, and Apple actually got going,33100:26:15.240 --> 00:26:19.440and Microsoft started going, they startedtaking off during not see that period33200:26:19.480 --> 00:26:22.640of time, Dell Computer, allthose and the hardware went out. And33300:26:22.640 --> 00:26:26.240what we get because we got thesmartphones. When we got the smartphones,33400:26:26.480 --> 00:26:32.920all the companies that fed into Appleand Samsung and Google, they all started33500:26:32.920 --> 00:26:38.279going up with those companies because nowwe have the ability to have a computer33600:26:38.400 --> 00:26:41.880in a hand. Basically that changedthe world. And what I'm saying is33700:26:41.880 --> 00:26:45.079the stocks that are going to changethe world right now are the AI stocks.33800:26:45.400 --> 00:26:49.000But we got to be careful onthe fringe stocks, all right,33900:26:49.039 --> 00:26:53.319because you know what happens ab everyone'sgonna say it's AI, it's AI.34000:26:53.519 --> 00:26:57.079It's AI. Well, most peopledon't even know what AI is. You34100:26:57.119 --> 00:27:00.559don't even know how much of thecompany's AI. There are companies that are34200:27:00.559 --> 00:27:03.680going to be small, that aregoing to be brought up and you're gonna34300:27:03.680 --> 00:27:06.559make money off of it. There'sgonna be top companies if it turns down,34400:27:06.640 --> 00:27:08.480that are going to go out ofbusiness because all the funding goes away.34500:27:08.960 --> 00:27:12.440Stay away from the speculative ones whenyou can stay in the good ones.34600:27:14.160 --> 00:27:15.200I think one other thing you haveto be careful about. A call34700:27:15.279 --> 00:27:19.640last week of a conservative client whocalls up. But this guy is risk34800:27:19.680 --> 00:27:25.559adverse to the point where about fiveyears ago he decided that he just couldn't34900:27:25.599 --> 00:27:30.599handle the level of volatility and tookhalf of the account and bought a CD.35000:27:30.000 --> 00:27:33.799I mean, that's how risk adversethis guy is. And he called35100:27:33.839 --> 00:27:36.839me up and said, I thinkwe need to get more technology stocks.35200:27:37.319 --> 00:27:38.599That's the kind of thing you haveto be careful of. And what he35300:27:38.680 --> 00:27:42.640wanted to do to get the technologystocks to sell Disney, which went up35400:27:42.680 --> 00:27:47.599thirteen percent the next day. Wedidn't do that, obviously, but there's35500:27:47.640 --> 00:27:52.400a obviously you've got that feeling.It's that fomo that fear of missing out.35600:27:52.480 --> 00:27:53.440Man, I have got to getin this. I've got to get35700:27:53.440 --> 00:27:59.880some Nvidia, I've got to getsome hot high flyer here. Because everybody's35800:28:00.000 --> 00:28:02.640making a bunch of money except me. It does make you a little cautious35900:28:02.680 --> 00:28:04.599when the most conservative people are startingto say that, right, because I36000:28:04.599 --> 00:28:08.680remember in twenty twenty when all thosestocks just couldn't go down. You start,36100:28:08.799 --> 00:28:11.640we started getting calls about wanted tojust throw everything in these penny stocks36200:28:11.640 --> 00:28:15.920that haven't even made a dime yet. And then once you started getting those36300:28:15.920 --> 00:28:18.039calls, obviously we saw twenty twentytwo happened. It all went down because36400:28:18.039 --> 00:28:22.640it was twenty and then twenty twentyone, all those stocks are just going36500:28:22.720 --> 00:28:25.519up and going up, and allthat craze with Game Stop and everything.36600:28:25.720 --> 00:28:29.880Everybody started to fear the fomo andthen obviously they came back down to earth.36700:28:30.200 --> 00:28:33.480Yeah. The other thing to keepin mind is no one has actually36800:28:33.799 --> 00:28:37.720made a business model using AI thathas been very profitable yet. Now there's36900:28:37.720 --> 00:28:41.880a lot of cool ideas out there, and I'm very excited to see all37000:28:41.920 --> 00:28:45.119of them come to fruition, butno one's actually making money with AI,37100:28:45.240 --> 00:28:48.119like chat, GBT, doesn't makeMicrosoft a lot of money. It's just37200:28:48.119 --> 00:28:52.400a really cool thin now, andthese investors are projecting what type of income37300:28:52.440 --> 00:28:55.880that could possibly bring the business infuture years. But as of now,37400:28:56.359 --> 00:28:59.960we've talked about this on the showmultiple times. It's really their building now,37500:29:00.440 --> 00:29:03.119the platform of AI for a lotof these companies, and it hasn't37600:29:03.160 --> 00:29:06.440really turned into any revenue source forthese companies. So you're seeing a lot37700:29:06.480 --> 00:29:11.480of projections into these stocks. Couldit come to fruition, sure, absolutely,37800:29:11.559 --> 00:29:14.720I mean the type of things thatcould happen with AI are certain,37900:29:14.839 --> 00:29:18.839but there's also this worry of whathappens if it's fifty percent of that projection38000:29:18.039 --> 00:29:21.680or seventy five percent. We haveto see some type of correction there.38100:29:22.359 --> 00:29:25.000I agree. It was a historicweek. We saw the S and P38200:29:25.160 --> 00:29:29.000five hundred hit five thousand for thefirst time in history. You remember when38300:29:29.000 --> 00:29:32.160it hit five hundred for the firsttime, don't you? I would,38400:29:32.279 --> 00:29:33.920you know, it's funny. Yourdad and I were talking about this this38500:29:34.000 --> 00:29:38.079morning. I remember back in twothousand and two when the Nasdaq got to38600:29:38.200 --> 00:29:42.359five thousand and then collapsed. Yeah, right, and then it just collapsed,38700:29:42.680 --> 00:29:47.160and I thought I wonderfu'll ever seefive thousand again in our life.38800:29:47.599 --> 00:29:52.160It hit sixteen thousand this week,which is one of those things where we38900:29:52.240 --> 00:29:57.279constantly tell people every single market declinein history has one thing in common.39000:29:57.519 --> 00:30:03.039They have all been falling by anew all time high. Market index declines,39100:30:03.079 --> 00:30:07.039for sure, the market. Whenthe market declines, just keep in39200:30:07.079 --> 00:30:10.519mind that is an opportunity to buy. That's a good point. It's market39300:30:10.559 --> 00:30:11.720index. Is that market as awhole has hit all time new highs.39400:30:11.720 --> 00:30:15.680It's not companies necessarily. Certain companiesdon't certain markets. There's a lot of39500:30:15.680 --> 00:30:18.200markets out there as all the reasonof us. That's good. That's a39600:30:18.240 --> 00:30:22.039good clarification, Todd. I appreciatethat that. You're absolutely right, you39700:30:22.079 --> 00:30:25.079have to stick with quality. We'retalking about the major in the season,39800:30:25.160 --> 00:30:29.559right, they always hit an alltime high. But you know, I39900:30:29.599 --> 00:30:33.039got this, This formal thing isis real. This fear missing out.40000:30:33.119 --> 00:30:37.519I get calls on it to roundnumbers do tend to be a magnet too.40100:30:37.559 --> 00:30:40.400And that's when the S and Pfive hundred was kind of working this40200:30:40.519 --> 00:30:44.640way. Towards five thousand, Danand I spoken and it says, absolutely,40300:30:44.640 --> 00:30:48.039go to hit five thousand because it'slike a magnet that that straw for40400:30:48.079 --> 00:30:53.039a couple of days though it isaround the four nine zero kind of struggle40500:30:53.039 --> 00:30:56.200and wants to hit five thousand andjust exploded through to end it Like a40600:30:56.240 --> 00:31:00.160lot of that has to do withoptions. I mean, once options were40700:31:00.160 --> 00:31:03.920introduced into financial markets, those wholefigures made even bigger of a psychological because40800:31:03.960 --> 00:31:08.599most options are in fives, sothey're on the even numbers. Yes,40900:31:08.640 --> 00:31:12.119when you buy like the five thousandto fifty one hundred, not buying five41000:31:12.119 --> 00:31:15.799thousand and five, yeah, orfive thousand and two, there's no options,41100:31:15.880 --> 00:31:19.720you know. And because it closedmoved above five thousand and went to41200:31:19.759 --> 00:31:25.880the closing price about fifty twenty ninesomething like that. I don't think there's41300:31:25.960 --> 00:31:30.240up, up and away. Thefive thousand is not out of the mirror41400:31:30.319 --> 00:31:33.440yet. Well, the S andP five hundred is traded higher on the41500:31:33.440 --> 00:31:36.799calendar week for fourteen out of thelast fifteen weeks. Isn't that something which41600:31:36.880 --> 00:31:40.799I believe is maybe the first timein history. I don't know another time.41700:31:41.640 --> 00:31:44.200I mean, there's been other timeswhere thirteen out of the last fourteen41800:31:44.200 --> 00:31:47.200weeks has happened. But I don'tthink it's ever happened. Fourteen out of41900:31:47.240 --> 00:31:49.920the last fifteen I googled that,did you okay you nineteen seventy two,42000:31:51.200 --> 00:31:56.279Okay, see okay. Nineteen seventytwo was the last time that that the42100:31:56.359 --> 00:32:01.000SBT five I was a fourteen offifteen weeks nineteen yeah. Yeah. And42200:32:01.480 --> 00:32:06.720interestingly, in nineteen seventy two,I was in the financial services business.42300:32:06.799 --> 00:32:08.359Was that your first that was yourfirst year? That's fire right when you42400:32:08.400 --> 00:32:12.319got into it, right right whenI got into it, first year mortgages42500:32:12.319 --> 00:32:15.640before Yeah, first year. ActuallyI've done mortgages in seventy two, but42600:32:15.680 --> 00:32:20.880I was also given financial advice tothe bank clients, gotcha, But I42700:32:20.960 --> 00:32:24.319wasn't licensed in the brokers industry.Tell eighty one. Now, A couple42800:32:24.319 --> 00:32:27.839of things to look on the Sand P. Five hundred is the historical42900:32:27.880 --> 00:32:31.960returns that we normally see for anelection year. Normally we were saying like43000:32:32.000 --> 00:32:36.759four percents normally what we see inan election year, but this year we43100:32:36.799 --> 00:32:39.960have one hundred percent outpaced that sofar. And that's what's kind of the43200:32:40.000 --> 00:32:43.960concern is do we have a kindof a pullback back to what we've seen43300:32:43.960 --> 00:32:47.880on historic years This is an outlierevery year so far on the type of43400:32:47.920 --> 00:32:52.119performance. Did this market pull backfive or ten percent without any reason whatsoever?43500:32:52.240 --> 00:32:59.720Absolutely, yeah, absolutely, AndFebruary is season seasonality talking again,43600:33:00.240 --> 00:33:04.920it isn't a great month, soit could potentially have some troubles in February43700:33:04.960 --> 00:33:07.759as well. It's actually the secondworst month of the year for the market43800:33:07.799 --> 00:33:10.960over the last fifty years. That'sgot to be because December tends to be43900:33:10.960 --> 00:33:14.480good and then January it tends tobe good because of all the new money44000:33:14.519 --> 00:33:19.559coming in and then people want totake some profit. Dember makes no sense,44100:33:20.119 --> 00:33:22.839but you actually have some reason behindFebruary. Yeah, in February it's44200:33:23.079 --> 00:33:28.240normally extra historically week in election yearsas well. Yeah, So yes,44300:33:28.559 --> 00:33:32.359I wouldn't again pullback. Wouldn't surpriseme right now. It's just too easy.44400:33:32.480 --> 00:33:36.839And when it gets this easy rightnow, you know, in a44500:33:36.960 --> 00:33:39.599in a good market, we looklike we're really smart. In a market44600:33:39.720 --> 00:33:44.799like this, we look like geniuses. Oh yeah, and it's not it's44700:33:44.839 --> 00:33:46.279not the case. Well, likeone of the stocks that we made a44800:33:46.319 --> 00:33:51.519position in yesterday, fsl R todaywas up seven percent. Yeah, you44900:33:51.599 --> 00:33:54.000look like geniuses. But timing wise, yeah, you no great timing,45000:33:54.079 --> 00:33:58.880it's just luck sometimes. Now takethem off the table quick, I mean45100:33:58.920 --> 00:34:01.839when in reality where they about buyinga position in FSLR for a couple of45200:34:01.839 --> 00:34:07.480weeks now because we're just thinking onan interest rate basis of lower interest rates,45300:34:07.519 --> 00:34:09.519meaning that that could help solar That'swhat we were thinking. But it45400:34:09.559 --> 00:34:12.679just happened to be the day webought it it was down because we were45500:34:12.719 --> 00:34:14.760like, oh, it's a goodbuying opportunity, and then it just jumps45600:34:15.119 --> 00:34:17.519seven percent the next day. That'sthe thing that is interesting about solar spaces.45700:34:17.519 --> 00:34:21.639We know they're very interest rate sensitive, so it is a kind of45800:34:21.679 --> 00:34:23.880an interest rate play. We knowPFF we've talked about as interest rates places.45900:34:24.079 --> 00:34:28.519That's where we do like allocating moneyin this year because again we are46000:34:28.559 --> 00:34:31.800talking about growth at historic valuations,not a place where you love to start46100:34:31.840 --> 00:34:36.840new positions on a pullback, likeDean says, is where you would want46200:34:36.840 --> 00:34:38.599to. But right now, ifyou're looking for a good places, we46300:34:38.760 --> 00:34:43.920like the interest rate sensitive once becausewe still rates did have come back up46400:34:43.920 --> 00:34:45.239a little bit. They're back intothe forest, so you have room from46500:34:45.320 --> 00:34:49.639the come back down. That's oneof those troubling things that I saw this46600:34:49.639 --> 00:34:54.159week is that interest rates kind ofedged higher almost every day and the week.46700:34:54.360 --> 00:34:58.519Yeah, they got back to aseven week high. The interest rates46800:34:58.519 --> 00:35:01.960currently a seven week high. Thespread between the two year and the tenure,46900:35:02.000 --> 00:35:07.079the inverse spread that we talk about, actually expanded to thirty basis points,47000:35:07.079 --> 00:35:10.000which is much wider, not much, it's wider than it's been.47100:35:10.119 --> 00:35:15.159Yeah, it was about twenty threelast week and been running in ten fifteen47200:35:15.280 --> 00:35:21.719area. We thought maybe that wouldactually reverse and become a normal yield curve,47300:35:21.760 --> 00:35:25.800but not at this point. Thebitcoin two year high todd Yeah,47400:35:25.840 --> 00:35:30.400well, ok again, I don'tknow why I saw a Cramer say that47500:35:30.440 --> 00:35:32.360was the first time bitcoin went overforty seven thousand. I was like,47600:35:32.400 --> 00:35:35.760no, I did it two weeksago. What is he talking about?47700:35:36.239 --> 00:35:38.320According to CNBC it was a twoyear high. Okay, I guess they're47800:35:38.320 --> 00:35:42.159talking about closing prices. Then Iguess maybe, I guess they're talking about47900:35:42.159 --> 00:35:45.320But yeah, it's been a greatweek for eleven percent up for the week,48000:35:45.360 --> 00:35:49.400and we're going again from Friday toFriday. Used in the ETFs now48100:35:49.400 --> 00:35:52.599because as you've pointed out, forbitcoin trades twenty four to seven. Yeah,48200:35:52.599 --> 00:35:55.719and I've looked at FBTC, whichis Fidelity's spot Bitcoin ETF and plotted48300:35:55.760 --> 00:36:00.920it right on bitcoins and since thestart of FBTC it's been perfect. We'll48400:36:00.960 --> 00:36:02.960be back right after this message.Welcome back to the Money Matter Show.48500:36:04.000 --> 00:36:06.920My name is Todd Lick. I'mhere with David Sherwood and Dylan Greenberg.48600:36:07.119 --> 00:36:08.760Again. We've had a great weekfor the S and P five hundred all48700:36:08.840 --> 00:36:12.280indices all in all, I mean, the Doubt didn't really do much,48800:36:12.280 --> 00:36:14.880but the S and P was upone point four and the Nasdaq was up48900:36:14.920 --> 00:36:16.840two point three. The equal weightedonly up point five. So again,49000:36:16.880 --> 00:36:22.679a continuation of the trend of twentythree of the Magnificent seven outpacing the overall49100:36:22.719 --> 00:36:25.880market and really bringing these indexes higherhas some interesting things to talk about with49200:36:25.920 --> 00:36:31.599the Max seven bottom up. ConsensusX expects that the Magnificent seven will collectively49300:36:31.639 --> 00:36:37.639grow at a twelve percent compounding growthrate through twenty twenty six, compared to49400:36:37.920 --> 00:36:40.360S and P five hundred the otherfour hundred and ninety three companies at a49500:36:40.400 --> 00:36:45.679three percent compounding annual growth rate throughtwenty twenty six. So obviously Max seven49600:36:45.840 --> 00:36:49.760is a lot higher than the averageSMP. But they should be higher.49700:36:49.760 --> 00:36:52.599I mean, these are better companiesall in all compared to the other four.49800:36:52.679 --> 00:36:55.079Two weeks ago, we had gonefrom magnificent seven to super six.49900:36:55.760 --> 00:37:00.199Well Kramer did, That's what again, huho can wake up so quickly?50000:37:00.559 --> 00:37:04.760Tesla had dropped twenty five percent ayear to date. And the funny thing50100:37:04.880 --> 00:37:08.760is is investors still consensuously believe thatTesla is the second out of the top50200:37:08.840 --> 00:37:12.760seven, out of the max seventhat will grow over the next two years.50300:37:13.000 --> 00:37:15.519Navidio is the first place at thirtyone percent compounding annual growth rate,50400:37:15.559 --> 00:37:22.719but Tesla right next to it atnineteen. So Tesla, they're suggesting,50500:37:22.880 --> 00:37:25.760based on the current stock price,that investors are still expecting this type of50600:37:25.760 --> 00:37:29.400compounding annual growth rate. Yeah,it's interesting. You hear a lot of50700:37:29.679 --> 00:37:34.760popjips and negatives about different electric vehiclesand things that are going on. Did50800:37:34.800 --> 00:37:38.840you see where GM signed the biggestelectric vehicle supply deal in their company history50900:37:39.159 --> 00:37:45.880nineteen billion dollars last week with LGChemical, and GM said they're committed to51000:37:45.960 --> 00:37:51.400electric vehicles. Would that say?Last week Portie said that their popular Macon51100:37:51.599 --> 00:37:54.599SUVs, their number one selling vehicleis going to be all electric starting in51200:37:54.639 --> 00:37:59.280twenty twenty five. That's it.You can't buy a gas one. Jaguars51300:37:59.480 --> 00:38:04.079entire F's going to be one hundredpercent electric by twenty twenty five. And51400:38:04.480 --> 00:38:07.679you know Europe is committed to theEV way more than the US. It's51500:38:07.719 --> 00:38:15.519going to be interesting to watch ifyou have Portia and Jagubar sales falling apart51600:38:15.519 --> 00:38:19.559in the United States because all theyhave is electric and we're not wanting electric51700:38:19.679 --> 00:38:22.119for whatever reason, we don't havethe infrastructure to be able to charge and51800:38:22.199 --> 00:38:27.079go. I saw the story aboutthis guy who rented a Tesla because it51900:38:27.119 --> 00:38:30.079was cheaper than flying over to Ohiofor the holidays. Okay, sixteen hundred52000:38:30.079 --> 00:38:34.760mile trip took him ten days becausehe had to find different electric charging stations.52100:38:34.920 --> 00:38:38.639He'd go up and down through Pennsylvaniaand everything, and three of them52200:38:38.679 --> 00:38:44.480were broken. Some of them didn'thave the the adapter for the Tesla.52300:38:44.840 --> 00:38:46.159That's the issue that people run into, like you, that's why you don't52400:38:46.199 --> 00:38:50.960drive your car to California. Idon't drive my car to California because my52500:38:51.079 --> 00:38:57.079wife lives in a world where shelikes things to be predictable. And one52600:38:57.079 --> 00:39:00.519thing about an electric vehicle is it'snot predictable. Although although I will say,52700:39:00.519 --> 00:39:04.800having had taken the car out onthe road, it will tell you52800:39:04.880 --> 00:39:07.519where the charging station is. Itwill say, hey it is you got52900:39:07.519 --> 00:39:08.840to pull over here. Doesn't tellyou if they're broken the corner. That53000:39:08.840 --> 00:39:12.960guy, and it also took himon average forty five minutes to do a53100:39:13.000 --> 00:39:15.760full charge, which is just solong on right, and you never you53200:39:15.800 --> 00:39:19.599never do a full charge. Theone thing you learn is a literal learning53300:39:19.639 --> 00:39:22.440curve, and you charge for thirtyminutes or what you do is you charged53400:39:22.519 --> 00:39:24.280to get to your next destination?Is what you do? Have you see53500:39:24.280 --> 00:39:28.400what I'm saying is that's the issuethat people don't want. That's why people53600:39:28.440 --> 00:39:30.599in the US don't want to doit. Maybe you're up there more on53700:39:30.599 --> 00:39:34.400the board because it's a lot closertogether. It's a hassle. Yeah,53800:39:34.440 --> 00:39:37.800it's a hassle. That's that's that'swhy I don't It's just a hassle.53900:39:37.280 --> 00:39:39.320His cars aren't that cheap. Yeah, And I mean, you know,54000:39:39.400 --> 00:39:44.159some people say look at it asa challenge, but it's just a hassle.54100:39:44.400 --> 00:39:46.440That's that's all. Now, Ferrariis the one I really want to54200:39:46.440 --> 00:39:50.880talk about in the car space becausethat stock has been absolutely killing amazing.54300:39:50.960 --> 00:39:54.519Very few people I've been talking aboutit. They're very expensive, which is54400:39:54.519 --> 00:39:57.679why probably no one talks about it. I mean, I think it's in54500:39:57.719 --> 00:40:00.559like the three hundred four hundreds orsomething like that. They should do a54600:40:00.599 --> 00:40:01.480stock split. I don't know whatthey're doing. I don't know what their54700:40:01.480 --> 00:40:05.800cf I don't know what their CFOis not thinking over there, but but54800:40:05.880 --> 00:40:07.599yeah, I mean, I mean, you look at Tesla Ford. I54900:40:07.599 --> 00:40:09.480mean, all the automakers do stocksplits, so it's kind of weird that55000:40:09.519 --> 00:40:12.920they haven't done it yet. ButFerrari has been killing. I don't know55100:40:12.960 --> 00:40:16.000if you heard anything about Ferrari's EVbut doesn't seem like they have a huge55200:40:16.280 --> 00:40:22.320fleet on boarders. But they areanother European company, so they just sold55300:40:22.360 --> 00:40:24.320that four door that they just cameout, like their version their SUV,55400:40:24.360 --> 00:40:28.519their first suv ever sold out forlike three years, and they keep it55500:40:28.519 --> 00:40:30.800that way because they want the exclusivityof it. And that's maybe why they55600:40:30.840 --> 00:40:34.840don't split their stock, because they'relike, if you can afford our car,55700:40:34.880 --> 00:40:36.679you can afford our stock kind ofthing. Yeah, when I was55800:40:36.679 --> 00:40:39.000in school, we actually did acase study on Ferrari potentially doing this four55900:40:39.039 --> 00:40:44.519door because it was a problem withthe exclusivity of the brand. Ferrari is56000:40:44.519 --> 00:40:46.639supposed to be that sports car,and they were wondering if they introduced this56100:40:46.760 --> 00:40:51.880four door, more family oriented car, does it lose that exclusivity of the56200:40:51.880 --> 00:40:55.599brand Ferrari itself. Obviously not,because they use like a thousand dollars version56300:40:55.639 --> 00:41:00.800of the Mazda four door. Yeah, it's worked out good for suvah a56400:41:00.800 --> 00:41:04.000Ferrari suv. They just came outwith it. Yeah, but they're already56500:41:04.000 --> 00:41:06.920sold out for like two or threeyears. But that's what they want.56600:41:06.920 --> 00:41:09.280They don't want to upproduction and meetthe man because they want to keep that56700:41:09.320 --> 00:41:14.199exclusy of the They're making so muchmoney with everything, that's what they keep.56800:41:14.239 --> 00:41:15.840That's what they want their brand tocontinue to be. They don't want56900:41:15.880 --> 00:41:20.400to just start making it everywhere,so everybody has them, right. We57000:41:20.440 --> 00:41:22.800have a guest coming on in thenext segment, so let's take a quick57100:41:22.840 --> 00:41:24.599trip to the EV garage while we'reat it. While we're talking about electric57200:41:24.639 --> 00:41:29.280vehicles. The last time I gavea list of things that were wrong with57300:41:29.360 --> 00:41:34.880electric vehicles, and my friend Carlpointed out I'd missed one tires. When57400:41:34.920 --> 00:41:37.960Tesla was a testing their early models, they discovered that the with no engine57500:41:37.960 --> 00:41:44.719noise, the noise from the tireswas noticeable and annoying. In addition,57600:41:44.880 --> 00:41:47.119the vehicle can weigh as much asthirty percent more than a gas part vehicle,57700:41:47.159 --> 00:41:51.960and as a result, they cameup with special eb tires the reduced57800:41:52.000 --> 00:41:57.159road noise, handle the weight,and reduce rolling resistance to enhance range.57900:41:57.719 --> 00:42:01.320Very special tires, However, thesetires can cost as much as one hundred58000:42:01.400 --> 00:42:09.159dollars apiece more than normal tires.Oh more than one hundred dollars a more58100:42:09.159 --> 00:42:13.199than normal tires. One other thing, one other thing that I hadn't really58200:42:13.199 --> 00:42:16.400thought about. About two weeks ago, I was driving out of my neighborhood58300:42:16.400 --> 00:42:20.920in the dark, six am,and I'm the president of the HOA,58400:42:20.960 --> 00:42:22.079and we'd put in new lights,and I hadn't really had a chance to58500:42:22.079 --> 00:42:24.840look at the new lights, andso I stopped and I backed up to58600:42:24.880 --> 00:42:30.960look at them better and bumped aneighbor's wall, literally bumped a neighbor's wall.58700:42:30.320 --> 00:42:34.800It would be on a normal car, you could buffet out. Well,58800:42:34.920 --> 00:42:38.000I took the car down because thecar is made of plastic and aluminum58900:42:38.039 --> 00:42:44.800the Tesla to reduce the weight.It's very fragile. And it turns out59000:42:44.840 --> 00:42:49.760that I did about ten thousand dollarsworth of damage literally bumping into a wall59100:42:49.840 --> 00:42:52.360at less than five miles an hour. And it's not really noticeable. It's59200:42:52.400 --> 00:42:55.840not really noticeable, but it's ahuge. It took the front bump,59300:42:55.880 --> 00:43:00.800and it took the rear bumper andpushed it up into the rear order panel,59400:43:00.199 --> 00:43:06.519which because this aluminum buckled a littlebit. Ten thousand dollars later,59500:43:06.679 --> 00:43:10.960here you go original another Yeah,another issue with the evs. It's it's59600:43:12.039 --> 00:43:15.320not all it's not all perfect,believe me. Yeah. Well, talking59700:43:15.320 --> 00:43:16.920about Max seven one more time.And if you look at Max seven versus59800:43:16.920 --> 00:43:21.639the other s and P five hundredand the current valuation, this guy at59900:43:21.639 --> 00:43:27.000Goldman Sachs, David Costen said hisvaluation model indicates that the group's fast expected60000:43:27.039 --> 00:43:31.480growth and high quality attributes largely explainstheir premium valuation, and says, based60100:43:31.519 --> 00:43:37.280on his model that they are fairlyvalued. So kind of, I guess60200:43:37.599 --> 00:43:39.639depends on what your model is.You're not going to get the kind of60300:43:39.760 --> 00:43:45.119growth out of anything that you're goingto get out of the magnificent seven.60400:43:45.239 --> 00:43:47.280Is that simple. So comparing magnificentseven, I mean, for people that60500:43:47.280 --> 00:43:52.280are listening with Dave saying, iscomparing magnificent seven earnings reports to the rest60600:43:52.320 --> 00:43:55.119of the S and P five hundredwill always be skewed, Yes, because60700:43:55.239 --> 00:43:59.760they're designed, their business model isdesigned to just grow at such a higher60800:43:59.800 --> 00:44:01.920rate. Sure, speaking of obskewed, we thought coming into this year that60900:44:02.079 --> 00:44:07.239value would become more popular than growth. So far that has not happened.61000:44:07.360 --> 00:44:10.960Nope, that has not happened.The equal way to the S and P61100:44:12.039 --> 00:44:15.079five hundred year to date up zeropoint seven, while the Nasdaq is up61200:44:15.119 --> 00:44:21.559six point five. So it isliterally a continuation of what went on in61300:44:21.599 --> 00:44:24.639twenty twenty three. We did notexpect that. Yeah, over the last61400:44:24.639 --> 00:44:29.679five years, the information technology sectorof the SMP has risen more than two61500:44:29.760 --> 00:44:32.239hundred percent. That's two times thereturn of the S and P five hundred61600:44:32.280 --> 00:44:36.760indecks and it goes even further thanthat because the text dominance. That sector61700:44:36.800 --> 00:44:39.960alone is the only sector that hasbeaten the S and P five hundred average61800:44:40.079 --> 00:44:45.199over the last five years, onlyone out of eleven has actually beat the61900:44:45.239 --> 00:44:47.119S and P five hundred indecks becauseevery other sector is below the average.62000:44:47.239 --> 00:44:52.199That's how much information technology is justpulling the index higher. D you said62100:44:52.199 --> 00:44:54.159you didn't see anything other than ablack swan event, you know, a62200:44:54.280 --> 00:44:59.920one off event, some kind ofa headline making event that could would would62300:45:00.239 --> 00:45:04.679any any pullback, not a buyingopportunity. And I would say that the62400:45:04.719 --> 00:45:08.679one variable here is interest rates.Interest rates have to stay down. Interest62500:45:08.760 --> 00:45:14.320rates cannot start spiking up again.That will put a damper on this,62600:45:14.440 --> 00:45:17.679I think really fast and to yourpoint as well as CPI. Yeah right,62700:45:17.800 --> 00:45:21.960CPI ticks up, interest rates willhave to tick up in response to62800:45:22.000 --> 00:45:25.199that. So we get a CPIreport next Tuesday, with PPI next Friday.62900:45:25.360 --> 00:45:30.480So next week could be interesting becauseinterest rates have been have been edging63000:45:30.559 --> 00:45:32.239higher. Well, we didn't talkabout oil. What three weeks it's had63100:45:32.360 --> 00:45:36.159Wow, up, down up,I mean it's all over, it can't63200:45:36.159 --> 00:45:38.719make up. It's mine. Yeahfor the week. Yeah, seventy six63300:45:38.760 --> 00:45:43.960dollars a barrel gas has been backover three dollars for a little bit now,63400:45:44.519 --> 00:45:47.800I've been watching the gasoline prices.I don't go to the gasoline stations,63500:45:47.840 --> 00:45:52.840of course I don't have to becauseI have a tesla. But I've63600:45:52.840 --> 00:45:55.000been watching the prices and that they'vegotten down below three bucks, haven't they63700:45:57.599 --> 00:46:00.920regular period? Now, it tickedback up over three dollars a couple of63800:46:00.920 --> 00:46:04.840weeks ago. Yeah, and thenlike I said, like Dylan just said,63900:46:04.840 --> 00:46:07.599oil was up four dollars thirty centson the week. Gold finished the64000:46:07.639 --> 00:46:13.400week unchanged. Gold tends to dopoorly with rising interest rates, and rising64100:46:13.480 --> 00:46:16.400interest rates tend to push the dollarhigher, and because gold is priced in64200:46:16.480 --> 00:46:20.679dollars, gold goes lower. Soit was unchanged on the week. Yeah,64300:46:21.000 --> 00:46:22.760tried a couple of times to rally. Well, listen to this,64400:46:22.920 --> 00:46:27.239Dave. If you started investing inJanuary twenty twenty two, it was a64500:46:27.320 --> 00:46:30.000terrible time to start investing. Ohyeah. If you invested all one hundred64600:46:30.000 --> 00:46:34.719percent of your money into the Sand P five hundred just now over a64700:46:34.760 --> 00:46:37.480two year period, well two yearsin a month, right, you would64800:46:37.519 --> 00:46:40.000have been up roughly about nine percent, okay for that two years, that64900:46:40.000 --> 00:46:43.880two year period, and that's onehundred percent S and P five total total65000:46:43.920 --> 00:46:46.440return index right now. Now,if you would have just done cash,65100:46:46.559 --> 00:46:50.599you're just rolling one to three monthtreasuries, okay, during that time,65200:46:50.920 --> 00:46:52.960you would have made eight point fivepercent. Just now, did the S65300:46:53.000 --> 00:46:58.280and P five hundred get a returnhigher over a two year rolling period than65400:46:58.400 --> 00:47:00.679just having money in straight cash.The reason I bring that up is obviously65500:47:00.760 --> 00:47:06.360it's been a very weird period forstocks in the last two years, and65600:47:06.360 --> 00:47:08.760we do have accounts that come inat different times and have differences. They65700:47:08.760 --> 00:47:12.920said, well, what's your performance? Well when did you start? Right?65800:47:13.079 --> 00:47:16.000You know, because it's hard tosay because every account is unique to65900:47:16.079 --> 00:47:21.719that particular client. Every account wasstarted at a specific point in time.66000:47:21.760 --> 00:47:23.719And if you came in like yousaid in January of twenty twenty two,66100:47:24.199 --> 00:47:28.599and you had all cash and yousaid, okay, I want to get66200:47:28.639 --> 00:47:31.280invested, we would do it.A dollar cost averaging over a period of66300:47:31.280 --> 00:47:36.320months wouldn't have helped much because themarket just kept going lower or lower and66400:47:36.360 --> 00:47:39.159then got trashed at the end oftwenty twenty two. Now twenty three comes,66500:47:39.400 --> 00:47:43.000things turn around, it starts togo back up, and at the66600:47:43.119 --> 00:47:45.519end of twenty three, two yearslater, you're where you started, Hey66700:47:45.519 --> 00:47:49.519boy, these guys are really notvery good money managers. We'll be back66800:47:49.840 --> 00:47:52.440right after this break. Welcome backeverybody for the second hour with the money66900:47:52.480 --> 00:47:55.840bat of Shelf. Do appreciate youlistening and being part of what we do.67000:47:57.599 --> 00:48:00.320We have everybody here today, butwe have a special guest. You67100:48:00.320 --> 00:48:02.239know, we always talk about likewe're a team. You know, I've67200:48:02.280 --> 00:48:07.119told you about how the team conceptworks and everybody works together. Well,67300:48:07.360 --> 00:48:13.199we've added to our team. Youknow. We've always had a you know,67400:48:13.239 --> 00:48:15.000the planning, and we've had theadvising, and then we had the67500:48:15.000 --> 00:48:19.880money management. That's what we do. And then we brought on Jonathan who67600:48:20.039 --> 00:48:27.039also was our in house attorney withand does all all our estate planning and67700:48:27.480 --> 00:48:30.840all. But what we were lookingfor was an accounting firm, okay,67800:48:30.920 --> 00:48:35.840one that we can work with,that partner with that we can like,67900:48:36.519 --> 00:48:39.320you know, basically trust. Andso it just so happens at the end68000:48:39.320 --> 00:48:42.920of the year, one of thefirms that we were referring business to,68100:48:44.039 --> 00:48:49.920these brothers, Johnson and Johnson Syand Joel brought them out and I sat68200:48:49.960 --> 00:48:52.920down with him and talked to him, and we really hit it off and68300:48:52.960 --> 00:48:55.800said Okay, let's partner up hereand work with each other. So today68400:48:57.000 --> 00:49:00.320I have Joel Johnson on talk abouthis history and what we do and how68500:49:00.320 --> 00:49:04.880we do this together. Great addition, Joel, to be part of a68600:49:05.000 --> 00:49:07.440partnership here and what we do.And remember we all own our own businesses.68700:49:07.440 --> 00:49:12.800Guys, but everyone's here. Youknow you need something, you can68800:49:12.840 --> 00:49:15.519meet with them here, They'll talkto you here. Yes, they have68900:49:15.559 --> 00:49:20.280another office here too, but ouroffice is where is probably the only place69000:49:20.320 --> 00:49:22.159you have to come. But ifit's closest to one of the others,69100:49:22.639 --> 00:49:25.840that's not a problem. So welcomeJoel, Thank you, Deane. Excited69200:49:25.880 --> 00:49:30.360to be here and part of theteam and the organization. So tell us69300:49:30.360 --> 00:49:35.199a little bit of I mean,obviously I know it's not Johnson and Johnson,69400:49:35.239 --> 00:49:39.039It's Johnson Group of Johnson Tax Accountants. What do you have so many69500:49:39.119 --> 00:49:45.280names? I know he can't haveJohnson and Johnson, but making sure people69600:49:45.639 --> 00:49:47.800have seen the things that we doand can connect with us, and so69700:49:47.920 --> 00:49:51.639the different names to align with thedifferent things that we do. Great,69800:49:51.679 --> 00:49:55.639we're going to get into that.Let's talk about you and Sy and why69900:49:55.679 --> 00:50:00.320do you do this and what yourpast history is you bet. So been70000:50:00.360 --> 00:50:06.079in Tucson since I was a baby. We grew up here, had a70100:50:06.159 --> 00:50:09.840number of different experiences in public accounting, in an industry, and so forth,70200:50:09.880 --> 00:50:14.079and about twenty years ago decided thatthis was where we wanted to be70300:50:14.119 --> 00:50:16.639and what we wanted to do.Form the LLC. I've been doing CPA70400:50:16.760 --> 00:50:22.519and tax practice for about fifteen yearsand Tucson is just an amazing place and70500:50:22.559 --> 00:50:25.480we're wanted to be here and bea part of the community and see what70600:50:25.480 --> 00:50:29.920difference we could make and bring ourexperience to town. Now you here.70700:50:30.320 --> 00:50:34.639SI grew up here, yep,But so I moved away for a while70800:50:34.679 --> 00:50:37.199and now he's coming back yep.And how cool is it that you guys70900:50:37.199 --> 00:50:42.039and brothers are going to build andgrow this for him. I'm super excited.71000:50:42.280 --> 00:50:45.039Yeah, the UH. I wasdeciding between a county and engineering when71100:50:45.079 --> 00:50:50.320I was going through the UA,and my older brother SI went accounting and71200:50:50.480 --> 00:50:53.320I took astronomy, which didn't countfor the engineering side of sciences. So71300:50:53.440 --> 00:50:59.000here I am accounting CBA. What'sreally cool is like, like I like71400:50:59.079 --> 00:51:01.719people. I think it I likeenergize people, and you guys are cool71500:51:01.719 --> 00:51:07.000accounts you're fun. You okay,you got personality. It's it's you know,71600:51:07.400 --> 00:51:09.199like in your business, our business, the whole business is Jonathan's,71700:51:09.199 --> 00:51:15.760but it's it's it's relationship building andthe fact that you guys actually had that71800:51:15.840 --> 00:51:20.480type of demeanor about you. It'sfantastic and you're spat and you know all71900:51:20.480 --> 00:51:23.000this stuff. You'll so you fitin perfectly with us outstanding. Well,72000:51:23.000 --> 00:51:28.639we're going to rely on you allfor the smart part. But listen,72100:51:28.719 --> 00:51:31.119if you just take the CPA test, you're smart in my eyes. Yeah,72200:51:31.280 --> 00:51:35.760I mean because you do. Youspend the time learning it because it72300:51:35.800 --> 00:51:42.400was Dylan's favorite subject in school.There you go an account and I figured72400:51:42.400 --> 00:51:45.480that out really quickly. I wantedto take was it one of those like72500:51:45.679 --> 00:51:49.199maybe it's gonna be my favorite Ishould take that class again. Kind of72600:51:49.480 --> 00:51:52.199force to take it because I wasa finance major and it was my first72700:51:52.199 --> 00:51:54.480accounting class and everything to me wasbackwards and it just didn't work out.72800:51:54.800 --> 00:51:58.559And I had to take about sixof those classes because I was a finance72900:51:58.599 --> 00:52:00.679major and have fun. One ofthem had a friend of mine as sat.73000:52:00.920 --> 00:52:04.199It either clicks really quickly with youand you love it and you'll be73100:52:04.239 --> 00:52:07.800an accountant like my friends that weretrying to teach me, or you just73200:52:07.840 --> 00:52:09.079never go down that route. Ihad a friend of mine the set for73300:52:09.119 --> 00:52:12.800the CPA exam, and back thenit was I don't know what it is73400:52:12.840 --> 00:52:15.719now, Joel, but it wasa two day exam and you had to73500:52:15.719 --> 00:52:20.079score three hundred to pass. Andhe got done with the second day and73600:52:20.480 --> 00:52:22.400he came back and I said,so, how to go? And he73700:52:22.440 --> 00:52:24.360goes, turns out I studied alittle too hard, and I said,73800:52:24.360 --> 00:52:27.239really, why is that? Hegoes, I got a three oh one,73900:52:27.920 --> 00:52:30.280so well, she's almost right onit, three one, and he74000:52:30.320 --> 00:52:34.159needed three hundred to pass. Sohe did. His conclusion was he had74100:52:34.159 --> 00:52:37.159studied too hard. You know thatsounds like an accountant. See this is74200:52:37.159 --> 00:52:40.000why it works good too, becausepeople that like, uh, we're all74300:52:40.000 --> 00:52:45.840good with numbers in different ways.You guys look at the stuff. They74400:52:45.880 --> 00:52:49.519all have to make sense, boomdown to the bottom. But taking risk74500:52:49.559 --> 00:52:54.400as an accountant, spending money asan accountant very difficult. Us as advisors,74600:52:54.920 --> 00:52:58.719we have to take the risk,calculated risk. How are we gonna74700:52:58.719 --> 00:53:00.920go ahead, what stocks we're gonnamake, how we going to allocate it.74800:53:00.039 --> 00:53:02.360How are we going to put ittogether? Where do we see we74900:53:02.360 --> 00:53:07.679can make money? So the twogo together, but definitely different personalities,75000:53:07.800 --> 00:53:09.559which makes them both better. That'swhy I've always said one person can't do75100:53:09.639 --> 00:53:14.079both. Yeah. No, it'sa great partnership relationship. Yeah, how75200:53:14.079 --> 00:53:16.639about you and Shi as far aspersonalities go, are you similar or do75300:53:16.719 --> 00:53:21.880you have areas where you prefer togo? And are you are you dividing75400:53:21.880 --> 00:53:24.719the business up a little bit basedupon personality? So as far as similar,75500:53:24.760 --> 00:53:28.320he's smarter and more handsome, allthose kinds of things. What are75600:53:28.320 --> 00:53:30.400you going to do? You know, just looks exactly the same. What75700:53:30.440 --> 00:53:35.559are you trying to say about yourself? Well, you know, smartin handsome,75800:53:35.639 --> 00:53:40.000right you said it? I don'tknow, but uh, we have75900:53:40.039 --> 00:53:45.079a very similar background and experience somesome different industry expertise that we bring to76000:53:45.079 --> 00:53:49.199the table, but otherwise the profileis very similar. And so the division76100:53:49.320 --> 00:53:52.119is Anie meanie, MINEU moe.And you'll be looking at viner stand correctly.76200:53:52.159 --> 00:53:57.360You're looking for accounting work. Ifyou want somebody do your taxes,76300:53:57.800 --> 00:54:00.079or do you want somebody or ifyou're a business, I want someone to76400:54:00.079 --> 00:54:04.039do your books. That's you allthat, right, yes, sir,76500:54:04.360 --> 00:54:09.519yep, yeah. Well what's reallycool is because the businesses need good accountants,76600:54:10.280 --> 00:54:14.360but it's more for planning, consultingand stuff like that, where's going76700:54:14.400 --> 00:54:15.400and how it's going. And Iknow you guys are really good at it76800:54:15.400 --> 00:54:19.960because you've beiden what with the BigFour, I mean you yep, they76900:54:20.000 --> 00:54:22.239do a lot of that. Sogive a little bit of background to that77000:54:22.320 --> 00:54:24.639to a business owners that a listeningYeah, you bet so. One of77100:54:24.719 --> 00:54:29.480the things we're trying to do withour practice is to bring in some broader77200:54:29.920 --> 00:54:36.679value add expertise beyond the core compliancethat you turned to the CPA for classically77300:54:37.039 --> 00:54:38.719and the application of that. Whenwe go back to the experience, you77400:54:38.719 --> 00:54:42.800know, how many twenty year oldsget to pop into the cfo's office of77500:54:42.840 --> 00:54:45.679a successful publicly traded firm and say, oh, how are you doing it77600:54:45.679 --> 00:54:49.000this way? Why does your cashlook like that? And so forth.77700:54:49.039 --> 00:54:52.599So you get all this incredible experienceand exposure in the public accounting experience,77800:54:52.639 --> 00:54:57.320and then we ch had different experiencein the private sector, in industry and77900:54:57.360 --> 00:55:01.159so forth. Being CFOs operation officer, there's interim CEOs things like that,78000:55:02.000 --> 00:55:05.880and then the idea is to bringthat experience so that we have that broader78100:55:05.960 --> 00:55:09.519context of it's not just the compliancecomponent, but it's also in out there78200:55:09.559 --> 00:55:14.559practicing in a business setting and soforth, what they're dealing with and what78300:55:14.559 --> 00:55:16.679they need to address, and howto be able to bring that perspective forward.78400:55:17.039 --> 00:55:22.239So when we're supporting their tax andaccounting and related needs, that it's78500:55:22.280 --> 00:55:27.280not only practice oriented, it's alsofrom an experience sitting in the seat that78600:55:27.320 --> 00:55:31.079they set, which great, Likegosh, like Jonathan's law firm and like78700:55:31.119 --> 00:55:39.559yourselves, we're all Tucson owned andfamily businesses and we all give that same78800:55:39.599 --> 00:55:43.880feeling out So people that kind ofwork with us, they get that that78900:55:44.000 --> 00:55:47.760personal lives touched, you know,being flexible, being able to handle this79000:55:47.800 --> 00:55:52.840stuff. And the great part isit's our own businesses and we don't have79100:55:52.880 --> 00:55:57.719to charge with the big firms charge. We could charge less yep and give79200:55:57.719 --> 00:56:01.480them more yep, and and youknow, and we're all good at it,79300:56:01.920 --> 00:56:06.079which is good. So what's greatnow is people can call we have79400:56:06.119 --> 00:56:10.119accountants, we got to stay plannersand obviously ourselves that will do the financial79500:56:10.119 --> 00:56:14.639plan that ties this whole thing together. I'm so happy because I finally got79600:56:14.840 --> 00:56:20.039after all these years, everything Iwanted under one roof. And it's something79700:56:20.079 --> 00:56:23.719that's going on into too soon,at least at least in my age group,79800:56:24.000 --> 00:56:28.800Dean, and you probably as well. You develop relationships with accountants,79900:56:28.840 --> 00:56:31.599with doctors, with dentists, withlawyers, and when you get old,80000:56:31.639 --> 00:56:36.079as you get old, they getold. So what we're trying to do.80100:56:36.159 --> 00:56:38.599I think, Dean, you've madea conscious effort here to bring in80200:56:38.679 --> 00:56:44.559young people, and the Johnson Groupare young people. Our financial advisors,80300:56:44.599 --> 00:56:46.559we have young people. I don'tknow when we were on forties, which80400:56:46.599 --> 00:56:50.639they are, we didn't think wewere that young. Now that we are,80500:56:50.679 --> 00:56:54.199we think just a kid, right. But I think the one thing80600:56:54.679 --> 00:57:00.079that gets so frustrating as you getolder is that all the people you've relied80700:57:00.119 --> 00:57:06.840on over the years retire or die, and so we have a team of80800:57:07.199 --> 00:57:10.719people that are going to outlive you, all right. I think that's important,80900:57:10.920 --> 00:57:15.239that's for sure. You develop relationshipswith people, and everybody wants a81000:57:15.280 --> 00:57:19.519doctor, a lawyer, and accountantthat's younger than them. Well, people81100:57:19.519 --> 00:57:22.960are moving here from out of youknow, absolutely right, and they want81200:57:22.960 --> 00:57:25.360an accountant in town. They wantan advisor in town. They want to81300:57:25.400 --> 00:57:29.559make sure there a state plan isup to date and changing. It's all81400:57:29.599 --> 00:57:34.280here, it's perfect and you know, yes, you know, I'm not81500:57:34.400 --> 00:57:37.159ancient, but you know, Igot ten years, maybe fifteen years left.81600:57:37.159 --> 00:57:40.440But after that there's a whole bunchof people not in my life,81700:57:40.440 --> 00:57:45.320I hope, but just you know, working wise, and then you go81800:57:45.400 --> 00:57:49.239from there. So it's kind ofgood. So let's get more on into81900:57:49.280 --> 00:57:52.679the nuts and bolts, the typesof clients you're looking for, what you82000:57:52.679 --> 00:57:58.639can do for them, And thenI want to get into how people the82100:57:58.679 --> 00:58:00.440tax changes that are coming up thatthey have to be aware of, you82200:58:00.519 --> 00:58:05.719bet so on the client side,I'll give you a two part perspective.82300:58:05.760 --> 00:58:09.800One, there's the individuals. It'sreally enjoyable to connect with people in the82400:58:09.840 --> 00:58:15.000community. Of the things that areexciting to me about tax practice isn't exactly82500:58:15.079 --> 00:58:16.639the tax code, which is underperpetual change now, by the way,82600:58:16.880 --> 00:58:21.960which will lead to that second part, But it's getting to meet people,82700:58:22.000 --> 00:58:24.719to understand people, know people ina way that actually you can do and82800:58:24.800 --> 00:58:30.280imply the tax strategy and planning ina way that is directly applicable to them82900:58:30.280 --> 00:58:32.119and if you take the time toget to know them and interface with them,83000:58:34.119 --> 00:58:37.079it becomes something quite significant that youcan do. The other part would83100:58:37.079 --> 00:58:42.239be that business experience. So onthe value side of what I believe we're83200:58:42.239 --> 00:58:46.480bringing to the table is that experiencein the background with the business industry work83300:58:46.480 --> 00:58:50.320that we've done in the past,and being able to understand that from the83400:58:50.320 --> 00:58:53.800business side and then pull in thetax strategies and so forth that can directly83500:58:53.840 --> 00:59:02.199help good question go for At thispoint, you've Joe, at this point,83600:59:02.239 --> 00:59:07.119you've got three different places where peoplecan meet you meet with you,83700:59:07.239 --> 00:59:10.719which would be the your office atFort Lowell and Kimbell, Campbell, thank83800:59:10.760 --> 00:59:17.800You, and Oracle Sir Oracle andOraclene area or here at Campbell and River.83900:59:19.480 --> 00:59:22.840So there's any one of those threeplaces that you can meet with them.84000:59:22.840 --> 00:59:25.039And if you're looking for someone todo your taxes, and I've talked84100:59:25.280 --> 00:59:30.000talked to a few people in thelast few days that are because we're starting84200:59:30.000 --> 00:59:34.079to think about that now. Tenninety nine coming out from brokerage firms next84300:59:34.079 --> 00:59:37.119week, and that should be thelast thing you really need for most people84400:59:37.960 --> 00:59:42.119to start getting that stuff rounded upto. I think a lot of people84500:59:42.159 --> 00:59:45.599are struggling to find cpis to dotheir taxes lately, so it's good.84600:59:45.679 --> 00:59:51.639We've had a lot of a lotof CPAs here in Tucson. We're older84700:59:51.920 --> 00:59:55.360folks and they have retired, andwe've been dealing with dozens of CPA firms,84800:59:55.599 --> 01:00:01.440and we had a CPA firm thatthat actually was accepting new clients that84901:00:01.599 --> 01:00:06.840we were fond of, and they'rethey're full, they're not accepting new clients.85001:00:06.880 --> 01:00:12.239So trying to find a competent,young group of CPAs here in Tucson85101:00:13.000 --> 01:00:16.199is really challenging, and that's whythe Johnson Group is. We're so excited85201:00:16.239 --> 01:00:20.360to be associated with you guys,Jill, Thanks Dave. Likewise, Yeah,85301:00:20.360 --> 01:00:24.400there's some really uh knowledgeable practitioners.I'm told that more than half of85401:00:24.559 --> 01:00:28.760CPA's are sixty five year older now, and so we're starting to see that85501:00:28.800 --> 01:00:31.280retiring profile and so forth, andso we're excited to come in and pick85601:00:31.360 --> 01:00:36.000up the torch where some of thesegreat practitioners in the past are looking to85701:00:36.000 --> 01:00:38.480move to the next phase. Ican't tell you you and I both know,85801:00:38.559 --> 01:00:42.800Dean, how hard we've looked forsomething like the Johnson Group. Oh,85901:00:43.119 --> 01:00:45.320this is for I mean, youknow me, Dave, I keep86001:00:45.400 --> 01:00:47.119looking and looking and looking until Ithink it's right. You know, it's86101:00:47.119 --> 01:00:50.760like anything. It's like it's likebeing on match. You keep dating until86201:00:50.760 --> 01:00:55.559you find someone. Yeah, anddoes your wife know about this? But86301:00:57.280 --> 01:01:01.360also you also know me that Ican quickly know will let's go anywhere or86401:01:01.400 --> 01:01:05.679not? But the type of questionsto answer, you know, I'm not86501:01:05.719 --> 01:01:07.599one of these guys that like todate a long time and and go there.86601:01:07.599 --> 01:01:10.039I want to find out we're goingto build a relationship and not.86701:01:10.199 --> 01:01:15.119And it's uh, by the way, I'm talking about business relationships. The86801:01:15.280 --> 01:01:19.000uh uh. And it did andhim and his brother and I hit it86901:01:19.039 --> 01:01:22.559off well, and we had avision and I told him what I see.87001:01:22.639 --> 01:01:24.000They said the same thing, andwe're able to get there. The87101:01:24.800 --> 01:01:28.320thing is that they are one ofthose people that just bought out one of87201:01:28.320 --> 01:01:30.239the people who gave usinits to thatwe tie it, yes, you know,87301:01:30.320 --> 01:01:32.400And that's what's going to keep goingon. So people are going to87401:01:32.519 --> 01:01:36.519keep doing it same thing at allbusiness. A lot of advisors are getting87501:01:36.519 --> 01:01:37.960to that retirement age and they don'twant to do the work anymore, and87601:01:38.039 --> 01:01:40.760they just want to get late.I'm not going to be lazy. I'll87701:01:40.760 --> 01:01:45.000retire before I get lazy. Iwill retire it. I can't see you87801:01:45.079 --> 01:01:49.639retired. I don't know something aboutit. I just can't see you land87901:01:49.719 --> 01:01:52.239back on the beach and say,oh, yeah, I think you're as88001:01:52.280 --> 01:01:57.079retired as you're going to get.I'm thinking, I'm thinking, no problem.88101:01:58.360 --> 01:02:00.559Take the summers off for the mostpart, and you're here. You're88201:02:00.559 --> 01:02:02.119here. Yeah. I don't havethat gene either. Uh. You know,88301:02:02.159 --> 01:02:07.440we we we're living an interesting we'reworking an interesting business where people typically88401:02:07.480 --> 01:02:10.599don't retire because it isn't really physicallabor. It's not something you need to88501:02:10.639 --> 01:02:15.320retire from. I have a friendwho's a veterinarian. He retired. That's88601:02:15.400 --> 01:02:19.840work. Being a veterinarian is physicalwork. You know, you're dealing with88701:02:19.840 --> 01:02:23.440with the animals and it it actuallyis work. Here we sit and we88801:02:23.480 --> 01:02:28.800talk to our friends, and wetrade our own accounts, and we meant88901:02:28.800 --> 01:02:31.199to kids. And I think partof it, don't you people, is89001:02:31.280 --> 01:02:34.559yeah, bringing on the young people, mentor them and teaching them, and89101:02:34.599 --> 01:02:37.639they teach us stuff. Absolutely.You know. The nice thing about our89201:02:37.679 --> 01:02:40.599young guys is they're not just goingto take everything we say and just say89301:02:40.639 --> 01:02:44.480Okay, they fight back on us. Still, they push back, and89401:02:44.679 --> 01:02:49.199that's why we get to the what'sreally good? You know, except sometimes89501:02:49.199 --> 01:02:54.360they love that push back to that'sour favorite thing. Do you say you89601:02:54.440 --> 01:02:59.280just accept that so? Well?Love that pushback? Doesn't he every time?89701:02:59.360 --> 01:03:01.440Yeah? I like to fight.I like to I like the pushing89801:03:01.480 --> 01:03:05.519back and forth and then we getto an answer. You know you do89901:03:05.599 --> 01:03:07.800like your fight? Well, you'refrom New York like Trump, right,90001:03:07.719 --> 01:03:10.880you wake up heaven more, youwake up and look for a fight.90101:03:12.119 --> 01:03:15.159If I was Trump, I wouldn'thave so many people hating me. I90201:03:15.159 --> 01:03:17.800wouldn't say I wouldn't say bad thingsto people. No, you wouldn't.90301:03:17.800 --> 01:03:21.960But he's going to probably be uhnext uh well, obviously it's going to90401:03:22.039 --> 01:03:24.679be a next Republican candidate. Sohopefully we'll see what happens. Is that90501:03:24.719 --> 01:03:29.280gonna affect taxes at all? Iexpect it'll be one of the most significant90601:03:29.280 --> 01:03:31.960things to affect taxes on the horizonthe upcoming election. Good, it'll be90701:03:32.000 --> 01:03:37.159good, right, Well, itdepends what depends what happens from the different90801:03:37.239 --> 01:03:43.519platforms and what they're actually implement ornot. So, there's everything from the90901:03:43.599 --> 01:03:47.159ideas where reducing taxes helps spolster economy. And typically when folks come to us,91001:03:47.199 --> 01:03:52.559they're looking to maximize excuse me,I mean minimize their tax liability,91101:03:52.039 --> 01:03:59.199right, and and so depending whichway this goes, there's certain platforms that91201:03:59.239 --> 01:04:00.880say they want to take half ofyour money, like when someone passes,91301:04:00.960 --> 01:04:03.960let's give up half of your money, and and others that don't. And91401:04:04.000 --> 01:04:08.880so what platform is that? Uhso, we'll have to see what the91501:04:08.880 --> 01:04:12.880current platforms are. But in thelast campaign, there was the advocacy to91601:04:13.000 --> 01:04:18.320take the estate taxation and reduce itdown to million dollar level, which would91701:04:18.480 --> 01:04:20.920just look at homany the home andreal estate. Is that the right side91801:04:20.960 --> 01:04:24.440of the left side that wants todo left side? Yeah, yeah,91901:04:24.480 --> 01:04:28.800we don't want that side. Okay, nobody wants to pay more taxes.92001:04:29.400 --> 01:04:32.679I don't. I don't mind payingsome. I don't mind paying my fair92101:04:32.760 --> 01:04:35.880share. You know, my fastshare is the same thing that everybody else92201:04:35.920 --> 01:04:40.760is paying percentage wise, that's myfast share. But it all seems that92301:04:40.960 --> 01:04:45.760some of us have become successful alwayspay more dollar wise, Yeah, yeah,92401:04:45.800 --> 01:04:48.480and five percentage right. All hereis it's time for the rich to92501:04:48.519 --> 01:04:54.360pay their own way. The topten percent pay ninety percent of the taxes,92601:04:54.599 --> 01:04:58.559right, fifty percent of the countrypays no taxes at all. Zero.92701:04:58.840 --> 01:05:02.280So with your saying, we gotto go to Trump if we want92801:05:02.280 --> 01:05:05.440to save taxes. So as longas he keeps the platform he was talking92901:05:05.440 --> 01:05:10.079about before, Yeah, yeah,well he's not going to change that.93001:05:10.400 --> 01:05:12.480Yep. I wouldn't think so,I don't think you'd change. And what93101:05:12.519 --> 01:05:15.079else have founded? Well, whatelse is changing that we have to talk93201:05:15.159 --> 01:05:17.719about that we have to look for. Yeah, So there's a huge amount93301:05:17.719 --> 01:05:20.519of uncertainty on the tax horizon.So one of the things that I would93401:05:20.559 --> 01:05:26.199point to and not to pick out, names Tax Cut Jobs Act of twenty93501:05:26.239 --> 01:05:28.599seventeen. So there's been so manyacts and can get them all mixed up,93601:05:29.039 --> 01:05:31.599but that was a very significant onethat changed marginal tax rates. You93701:05:31.639 --> 01:05:34.519know, what percentage of tax areyou paying at a different income level.93801:05:35.039 --> 01:05:41.039The deduction exemption thing where the deductionswent higher and took out personal exemptions made93901:05:41.079 --> 01:05:44.719at zero is the way that theydid that. Child tax credit amounts,94001:05:44.719 --> 01:05:47.599the mortgage interest deduction thresholds, thestate and gift tax thresholds, all of94101:05:47.599 --> 01:05:51.679those things were changed by that act, which sunsets had a sunset clause at94201:05:51.719 --> 01:05:57.320midnight on January first of twenty twentysix, And so there will be change94301:05:57.360 --> 01:06:01.480even if there's no change made.It reverts and the things that people used94401:06:01.480 --> 01:06:03.800to deduct and said that you can'tdeduct now, and there's a lot of94501:06:03.840 --> 01:06:06.840confusion on that, but all thosethings go back to what they were a94601:06:06.880 --> 01:06:11.559decade ago. If everybody remember staytax as well, right, yep,94701:06:11.639 --> 01:06:14.960doesn't that revert back to a millionbucks or whatever it was? The baseline94801:06:15.000 --> 01:06:17.719that I recall is a five millionthreshold, less than half of what it94901:06:17.800 --> 01:06:20.960is, But there is absolutely rhetoricabout making it a million. Yeah.95001:06:21.280 --> 01:06:25.280Yeah, well they probably wouldn't geta million, but they could get that95101:06:25.360 --> 01:06:28.599five million because right now it's whattwelve million of person right, yeah,95201:06:28.639 --> 01:06:32.760a round number is up to almostfourteen now. But yeah, ye huge,95301:06:32.840 --> 01:06:35.880Yeah, because people have made somuch more money, you know what95401:06:35.920 --> 01:06:43.360I mean? And what's really itaffects the people that have businesses that have95501:06:43.480 --> 01:06:46.320to sell the businesses more than anything. Well, how about farmers, Yeah,95601:06:46.400 --> 01:06:51.239the farmers is the big hit.I think it's across the spectrum.95701:06:51.280 --> 01:06:54.639I mean, it's interesting if yougo back, you know, pulling New95801:06:54.679 --> 01:06:57.440York into the story. There wasone period of time in the past where95901:06:57.440 --> 01:07:00.039there was no estate tax one year. And one of the big things with96001:07:00.360 --> 01:07:02.599New York Yankees is, it wastold to me, is what happens when96101:07:02.599 --> 01:07:06.760Steinbrenner passes, they'd have to potentiallysell the Yankees just to pay the taxes,96201:07:08.400 --> 01:07:12.840uh for that organization. And asit turns out, that year was96301:07:12.880 --> 01:07:15.880the year that Steinbrenner passed, Butso they didn't have to cross that bridge.96401:07:15.880 --> 01:07:18.840But that is exactly the type ofthing where you can completely change the96501:07:18.880 --> 01:07:21.760landscape and you think it's you know, personal assets home, but no,96601:07:21.800 --> 01:07:25.000it could be the business. Itcould be any number of things. I96701:07:25.079 --> 01:07:29.360remember that that wouldn't that happened.I remember the talk and everyone started assuming96801:07:29.400 --> 01:07:31.679that he was he was having problemsanyway, so I figured he'd better wanted96901:07:31.719 --> 01:07:35.960to die to save everybody the money. All kinds of speculation. I'm sure97001:07:36.719 --> 01:07:40.840the curious number of billionaires that passedthat year, though, Yeah, isn't97101:07:40.880 --> 01:07:44.199it it was? Rather it isthat goes back, you know that that97201:07:44.480 --> 01:07:48.000law goes back to England, Englishtax law and to where the purpose of97301:07:48.039 --> 01:07:51.559it was so that no one ortwo families could control all the wealth in97401:07:51.599 --> 01:07:57.199the country. That was that wasthe reason that came into the fact,97501:07:57.400 --> 01:08:00.480and obviously we're well beyond that atthis point. Well, yeah, my97601:08:00.559 --> 01:08:02.960feeling is they wanted to change thiswhole thing with the billionaires, change the97701:08:03.000 --> 01:08:09.119real estate, uh, taxation.I mean that's where it all comes down97801:08:09.119 --> 01:08:13.639to h and and and the carryforward interest. I mean, all these97901:08:13.679 --> 01:08:16.520guys are managing money, not notlike us, but I'm talking about it.98001:08:16.600 --> 01:08:21.840Hedge funds who are multi billionaires andwar On Buffett. They don't have98101:08:21.880 --> 01:08:27.479to pay because they always talk aboutI pay less percentage wise than my my98201:08:27.000 --> 01:08:30.680uh my assistant. Well, thenchange the law and the remember it almost98301:08:30.720 --> 01:08:34.319got there but Cinema stopped it.It's because that's where they get all their98401:08:34.319 --> 01:08:39.439funding from. You and I bothknow that they act like they want to98501:08:39.479 --> 01:08:43.680do something, but Congress doesn't doanything about it. Yeah, and there's98601:08:44.640 --> 01:08:46.319yeah, there's a whole kinds ofconversation we could have there, but uh,98701:08:47.119 --> 01:08:50.399and that it feeds into some ofthe tax strategy side of things.98801:08:50.520 --> 01:08:55.279There's basically three things you can do. Change when you pay your taxes,98901:08:55.439 --> 01:08:58.399change how or get some exemption oroffsets for the taxes that you do.99001:08:58.840 --> 01:09:00.119That tends to be where a lotof the those things come from, where99101:09:00.119 --> 01:09:03.199they incentivize and say, hey,we will give you credit if you spend99201:09:03.199 --> 01:09:08.239a dollar on something particular versus somethingelse, then that'll that's a dollar you99301:09:08.279 --> 01:09:10.880don't have to pay in taxes.Well, that's where we can come and99401:09:11.000 --> 01:09:13.000you know, for the clients thatwant to do that, we sit down99501:09:13.039 --> 01:09:16.199and we put a tax strategy togetheron what to do going forward on their99601:09:16.239 --> 01:09:20.119investments, not so much the moneythey're making on a W two and you99701:09:20.119 --> 01:09:25.920know, but it's going forward becauseit's very important that they don't get triple99801:09:25.960 --> 01:09:29.319taxation and get killed. Let's faceit, you get taxed, you get99901:09:29.319 --> 01:09:31.560taxed, and then when you die, you get taxed again. You know,100001:09:31.680 --> 01:09:35.520just to make sure you understood thatthere was tax death and taxes,100101:09:35.560 --> 01:09:39.079not just death. That goes handin hand there, Right, There's nothing100201:09:39.119 --> 01:09:44.600wrong with being intelligent about your taxes. The tax laws are there for a100301:09:44.640 --> 01:09:48.800reason, and it helps to havesomeone intelligent like you guys to help guide100401:09:48.880 --> 01:09:54.760people through that. Yeah, Andthat's one of the reasons we like this100501:09:54.840 --> 01:09:57.319partnership. I mean, one ofthe best that I always tell people.100601:09:57.399 --> 01:10:00.560Fill up your retirement plans, absolutelyup. If you can't fill up your100701:10:00.560 --> 01:10:02.920time and plan, then that's whereyou can save a lot of taxes.100801:10:03.239 --> 01:10:05.960Fill them up, put the moneyin, maxim out. Then we could100901:10:05.960 --> 01:10:09.720talk about other things that you cando. Yep, it's absolutely one of101001:10:09.720 --> 01:10:13.840the huge opportunities to do so.And then multiple one K plants get matched,101101:10:14.399 --> 01:10:17.840so you're automatically make it money right. We do tax strategy planning here.101201:10:17.920 --> 01:10:23.479You do tax strategy planning with you. Jonathan does tax planning strategy.101301:10:23.760 --> 01:10:27.600We can help you know, youneed to sit down and meet with us101401:10:28.840 --> 01:10:33.800and or you and get some helpbecause we do know how to do this101501:10:34.399 --> 01:10:39.319and it can make such a hugedifference. It can. The reality is101601:10:39.359 --> 01:10:45.439that the structure of the system isincredibly complex, sophisticated, dynamic, whatever101701:10:45.479 --> 01:10:46.399words you want to use. Atthe end of the day, there are101801:10:47.039 --> 01:10:50.000a number of factors that can comeinto play in any given situation that can101901:10:50.319 --> 01:10:57.680make the result of your reality asit exists, receive some tax preferential consideration,102001:10:57.840 --> 01:10:59.640and you just have to be awarewhat that is and how to do102101:10:59.680 --> 01:11:01.680so right. And the process isthey got to come in, They got102201:11:01.720 --> 01:11:04.439to sit down. They got totalk to you. If they do that102301:11:04.720 --> 01:11:09.439the first time, do you chargethem for that or is it the consultation?102401:11:09.520 --> 01:11:12.439You can just they can come talkto you first time. It depends102501:11:12.439 --> 01:11:15.920how long they think that that conversationshould be. That first consultation is complimentary,102601:11:15.920 --> 01:11:19.239absolutely right. And I say thesame thing. I mean, if102701:11:19.279 --> 01:11:21.640you think you're coming in and goingto use me for two hours, it's102801:11:21.640 --> 01:11:24.520crazy. Yeah, but you gotto come in and talk to me for102901:11:24.560 --> 01:11:27.560a half hour, forty five minutesexactly, that's fine. Same thing with103001:11:27.640 --> 01:11:31.159Jonathan. Jonathan does that too,say attorney, we want to help you.103101:11:31.199 --> 01:11:33.600Guys, don't take advantage of us. So we're not going to take103201:11:33.600 --> 01:11:36.920advantage of you. Yep. Andthe reality is how we can best help103301:11:36.920 --> 01:11:40.199on the tax side of it iswhen they come in if they have a103401:11:40.199 --> 01:11:44.760financial plan and sit down and collaboratewith a team, like we're talking about103501:11:45.520 --> 01:11:48.600that net effect and looking forward andhaving a bigger plan rather than just okay,103601:11:48.720 --> 01:11:51.560it's not just twenty twenty three,it's about twenty four and beyond.103701:11:51.960 --> 01:11:55.800The plan is so important and nowwe have a whole team that can do103801:11:55.880 --> 01:12:00.359you a plan for you and setyou up, take away the stress and103901:12:00.760 --> 01:12:03.159not worry about it. John Joel, thank you. We look on to104001:12:03.199 --> 01:12:06.439a long relationship. If you needto get in touch with them, it's104101:12:06.479 --> 01:12:12.159the Johnson Group, PLLC. TaxAccountings. We'll just call us. We104201:12:12.239 --> 01:12:14.840have his number. We'll let youknow where it is and you can meet104301:12:14.840 --> 01:12:16.880with him here or his office.Is not a problem, We'll be right104401:12:16.920 --> 01:12:20.000back. Thank you for listening toThe Money Matter Show. Welcome back.104501:12:20.039 --> 01:12:24.079This is the Money Matter Show.We thank Joel Johnson for coming in and104601:12:24.239 --> 01:12:27.800helping us, telling us what's goingon in the world of accounting. And104701:12:28.359 --> 01:12:33.119we really have struggled to find peopleof a relatively young age that can do104801:12:33.239 --> 01:12:39.399taxes to with whom you can builda relationship with. And we're excited to104901:12:39.439 --> 01:12:43.680have the Johnson Group. Certainly weround out our team, right. We105001:12:43.720 --> 01:12:47.079have the estate we have even theextra insurance guy. We do our own105101:12:47.119 --> 01:12:49.680insurance. We are the money manager, We're the financial planner. We have105201:12:49.720 --> 01:12:55.039an estate planner, we have mortgagemerge guy. Right. I mean literally105301:12:55.039 --> 01:12:57.640everything you can think of in thefinance space, we have you taken care105401:12:57.640 --> 01:13:01.880of. And what you know Iwanted to you know, Dean said you105501:13:01.880 --> 01:13:06.239know if you last two hours oryou know, me and Dylan, we105601:13:06.279 --> 01:13:10.800really don't care if we've had threehour meetings, we've had one hour meetings.105701:13:11.199 --> 01:13:14.319We are here no matter what,because when you talk about financial plans,105801:13:14.680 --> 01:13:18.960we really are saying their complimentary andthey go into very detailed and sometimes105901:13:18.960 --> 01:13:23.079they can stretch a long time,especially for the very complex plans. Yeah,106001:13:23.079 --> 01:13:26.479and I mean so for our aspectof the whole team, you talk106101:13:26.560 --> 01:13:29.680to Dean, it's more of aconversation about what goes on and how they106201:13:29.760 --> 01:13:31.159investment side. If you come talkto Todd and I sit down with us,106301:13:31.199 --> 01:13:34.520we go through the entire program.That's not necessarily a meeting you'd have106401:13:34.560 --> 01:13:38.439with my dad. It'd be morewith us. And that's why our meetings106501:13:38.520 --> 01:13:42.000take a little longer because we reallydive into the nuts and bolts of your106601:13:42.000 --> 01:13:45.039financial plan. And I mean everybody'sas unique and some are much more complex106701:13:45.079 --> 01:13:46.680and take the time to do it, which is no problem to us.106801:13:46.840 --> 01:13:49.600Yeah. This last week, Idid a really fun plan where we had106901:13:50.399 --> 01:13:54.520this person retiring for two years.They were taking a lot of money out107001:13:54.520 --> 01:13:57.880of their IRA, but also doingro of conversions getting them up to that107101:13:58.039 --> 01:14:01.199tax bracket threshold where they wanted tobe, then for the three years after107201:14:01.279 --> 01:14:04.239that, taking less out of theirIRA, still doing ROW. We're able107301:14:04.279 --> 01:14:09.199to calculate all of this because wecan see and project out tax rates and107401:14:09.239 --> 01:14:12.279how they're going to increase with inflationeach year. Obviously, you don't know107501:14:12.359 --> 01:14:15.000if a tax code changes, youcan't plan for that, but you know107601:14:15.079 --> 01:14:18.239what the tax code is right now, you know what it's supposed to increase107701:14:18.239 --> 01:14:20.960with inflation each year, and youcan plan for all of this, and107801:14:21.000 --> 01:14:26.399you can see what your expected lifetimetax savings would be if you do strategy,107901:14:26.439 --> 01:14:29.680if you take money out of yourIRA before rm DS, if you108001:14:29.720 --> 01:14:32.359do roth conversions before rm DS,And largely what we see is for people108101:14:32.359 --> 01:14:36.800who haven't taken Social Security yet,if for some reason they waited to seventy108201:14:38.079 --> 01:14:41.119and they haven't taken R and DS. Likely if they don't have a pension,108301:14:41.119 --> 01:14:44.560of course, they probably don't haveany income or it's not significant,108401:14:44.760 --> 01:14:47.239so there is a lot of roomfor those people to take advantage of Roth108501:14:47.239 --> 01:14:50.560conversions, even if they're past theage of sixty. But again, you108601:14:50.640 --> 01:14:54.760have to have not a lot ofshowing income, right if you're already turned108701:14:54.800 --> 01:14:56.960on sold security, if you alreadyhave a pension, if you are taking108801:14:57.000 --> 01:15:00.239money out of your IRA to liveon, there's really no room. Doesn't108901:15:00.279 --> 01:15:02.640make sense. But you can onlyknow that if you look at the financial109001:15:02.640 --> 01:15:05.800plan. If we actually dig intoall your earned income, dig into where109101:15:05.800 --> 01:15:09.720your income sources are coming from,where they're projected to be coming from in109201:15:09.760 --> 01:15:14.039the future years, how they getturned on and change. It's too complex109301:15:14.079 --> 01:15:15.800to do it in an Excel sheet. I say that multiple times, and109401:15:15.840 --> 01:15:19.640that's why me and Dylan we takeup high value into this financial planning and109501:15:19.640 --> 01:15:24.279we learn more about it every singleday, and the software updates itself every109601:15:24.319 --> 01:15:28.840single day. It's getting better itself. So it's a constant improving process exactly.109701:15:28.920 --> 01:15:30.439And like you were saying, Imean, we don't know what the109801:15:30.439 --> 01:15:32.520tax coach could change to in thefuture, and if it does change,109901:15:33.000 --> 01:15:36.319the program can update with it.It's not like you make your financial plan110001:15:36.399 --> 01:15:40.920today and you're stuck with what thetaxes are today. Something changes three years110101:15:40.960 --> 01:15:44.239down the line and it's significant.We'll see how that impacts your plan and110201:15:44.279 --> 01:15:46.199if there's a different route you haveto take. This plan is fluid.110301:15:46.479 --> 01:15:50.279We want to update it at leastonce a year, especially if you're younger,110401:15:50.359 --> 01:15:54.359because a lot of things can changewithin the time before you retire.110501:15:54.399 --> 01:15:57.720Into why you're working until you retire, And what a Joel was saying is110601:15:57.760 --> 01:16:01.439the potential that we may know whatthe potential platform the new tax code could110701:16:01.439 --> 01:16:05.319look like once we know who's actuallygonna be the incumbent president. Well,110801:16:05.359 --> 01:16:09.720when that happens, we can actuallygo back into the plan and play what110901:16:09.800 --> 01:16:12.760if tax rates changed by two percent? How does that impact the plan?111001:16:13.000 --> 01:16:15.399And there's actually ability for us todo that in the software. We can111101:16:15.439 --> 01:16:19.600do any projection that we want to. Really, Yeah, I'm just amazed111201:16:19.640 --> 01:16:28.119at the level of sophistication that youguys achieve in these financial plans for zero111301:16:28.359 --> 01:16:30.359cost, right, Yeah, nocost at all. When the meeting's over,111401:16:30.439 --> 01:16:34.520we send it to them and thenthat's it. No obligation, Yeah,111501:16:34.560 --> 01:16:36.720no obligation. I mean, thewhole process is that will send it111601:16:36.720 --> 01:16:40.079to you. We'll send you arisk tolerance questionnaire to get more of an111701:16:40.079 --> 01:16:44.640idea what your risk is. Weask initially during the planning meeting what your111801:16:44.720 --> 01:16:46.920risk is, but this actual questionthere is much more dynamic. There are111901:16:46.960 --> 01:16:49.640similar questions, but it kind ofnails down your idea of what your risk112001:16:49.680 --> 01:16:53.800scores, and that shows how wewould invest your money. Say you were112101:16:53.840 --> 01:16:57.279to open an account here, andthen the next meeting is we would go112201:16:57.319 --> 01:17:00.439over our suggestions and then you caneither decide to implement them or not and112301:17:00.479 --> 01:17:03.800take it and just go. Buteither way, it's all free of cost.112401:17:03.960 --> 01:17:06.960And I think another reason we dothat double risk or question because when112501:17:08.000 --> 01:17:11.199we ask the client, they'll saysomething to us because we are kind of112601:17:11.239 --> 01:17:14.319explaining what we mean as risk.But when they go home and then they112701:17:14.319 --> 01:17:17.560take the questionnaire by themselves, withoutthe influences around them, they often come112801:17:17.640 --> 01:17:21.199up with a different number. Andthat's kind of life. I mean,112901:17:21.319 --> 01:17:24.439I'm sure, Dave, you couldspeak to this as a money manager.113001:17:24.560 --> 01:17:26.840They might be in your office tellingyou one thing, and then two months113101:17:26.920 --> 01:17:29.880later they call you because they lookat their statement they're telling you something completely113201:17:29.880 --> 01:17:32.399different. Because when they're in youroffice, they feel like they have to113301:17:32.479 --> 01:17:39.000act a certain way or maybe seemsmart in a certain way when maybe they113401:17:39.000 --> 01:17:41.720don't, or maybe they you know, a lot of things play into it113501:17:41.760 --> 01:17:45.319when people are trying to determine whattheir risk is. I mean, some113601:17:45.359 --> 01:17:47.760people think they need to be superaggressive right here, right three months ago,113701:17:47.800 --> 01:17:50.520you were saying the same persons beingconservative. Sure, So a lot113801:17:50.520 --> 01:17:55.600of the times when people get athome and you know, simmer in their113901:17:55.640 --> 01:17:58.439thoughts, they kind of come upwith these different ideas of what they should114001:17:58.439 --> 01:18:00.840be doing. When a ridge inthe first plan, they said something completely114101:18:00.880 --> 01:18:04.319different. And so that's why we'dlike to take those dynamic approaches and constantly114201:18:04.359 --> 01:18:08.239go back to it, constantly askis this still what you feel like?114301:18:08.319 --> 01:18:11.159Is this still what you feel comfortablewith? Because it changes a lot.114401:18:11.520 --> 01:18:15.800And that's what it is. It'sconstant communication between us and our clients because114501:18:15.840 --> 01:18:17.640things do change. Risktallers do change. Maybe you are less comfortable with the114601:18:17.680 --> 01:18:21.520risk that you initially wanted when youopen a year ago or two years ago.114701:18:21.680 --> 01:18:25.680So then we could come in andtalk about that and see maybe retake114801:18:25.680 --> 01:18:28.560the risk tolerance questionnaire, see whereyour mind is at now, and do114901:18:28.600 --> 01:18:30.359we change things? Do we makeyou a little more conservative. That's all115001:18:30.359 --> 01:18:33.520the conversations we have, and that'swhat we want to keep cost of communication.115101:18:33.560 --> 01:18:36.680We don't want to just implement yourinitial plan and they never talk to115201:18:36.720 --> 01:18:40.680you again. That's not how wewant it could you imagine the risk tolerance115301:18:40.680 --> 01:18:44.800scores today compared to what they werea year ago. Oh my goodness,115401:18:45.079 --> 01:18:49.159twenty twenty two risk tolerance questionnaires werevery conservative, very conservative. Yeah,115501:18:49.159 --> 01:18:51.560but what I really wanted to seed at the bank and not to be115601:18:51.600 --> 01:18:56.000bothered anymore. Right, and nowit's give me every text doc you can115701:18:56.000 --> 01:19:00.319find and can we do it onmargin is as a pressive as possible.115801:19:00.399 --> 01:19:03.159But that's why. And then whatwe try to say, we try to115901:19:03.279 --> 01:19:08.000remind our clients that it's like,think about it five ten years down the116001:19:08.079 --> 01:19:11.760road, not five months, becausea lot can change in five to ten116101:19:11.840 --> 01:19:13.880years. But that's how you wantto build your portfolio. You don't want116201:19:13.880 --> 01:19:15.159to try and time the markets.You want to build a portfolio that helps116301:19:15.199 --> 01:19:18.720you sleep at night and helps younot check your phone every ten minutes trying116401:19:18.720 --> 01:19:23.119to see what the market's doing becauseyou're nervous about what your retirement plan is116501:19:23.159 --> 01:19:27.000doing. Yeah. The one thingthat you find out when you go through116601:19:27.039 --> 01:19:31.840this financial plan is there's an awfullylot of moving parts in a financial plan.116701:19:32.399 --> 01:19:36.880Some of those parts you didn't evenknow existed or were connected, or116801:19:36.920 --> 01:19:41.960didn't know where we connected exactly.So when a client comes out of those116901:19:42.000 --> 01:19:45.479meetings, it's with this breath offresh air of Okay, I now know117001:19:45.520 --> 01:19:47.840where I'm at, I now knowwhat I need to do. A huge117101:19:47.840 --> 01:19:51.399one we see is that they don'tknow they're the monthly expenses. Oh yeah,117201:19:51.439 --> 01:19:54.720I get they start when they likethey tell us say, oh yeah,117301:19:54.760 --> 01:19:57.039we had to sit down and goover our expenses. A lot different117401:19:57.079 --> 01:20:00.479than we thought because they never reallygo over. They just seeing it come117501:20:00.479 --> 01:20:02.359in coome out. But they're notsending down putting together a budget in that117601:20:02.439 --> 01:20:06.479sense. They had to, andit's for some people's eye opening. I117701:20:06.479 --> 01:20:10.520think one of the biggest things thatthe plan gives people is when you show117801:20:10.560 --> 01:20:13.319them a range of spending, sothey'll come in and tell me what they're117901:20:13.359 --> 01:20:16.199currently spending, which is normally whatI say is their minimum, because they're118001:20:16.199 --> 01:20:19.800normally already giving you a pretty lownumber compared to what they're probably actually spending.118101:20:20.239 --> 01:20:23.399And then what you can do is, in the what if scenario of118201:20:23.439 --> 01:20:26.840the plan, you can see whatlevel of spending breaks the plan, what118301:20:26.960 --> 01:20:30.159is undoable, right, and soyou go up to that threshold until the118401:20:30.199 --> 01:20:32.760plan breaks down to about ninety soit's still relatively successful. You know it118501:20:32.760 --> 01:20:36.600will work, but nine times outof ten. But you know that's kind118601:20:36.640 --> 01:20:40.359of your upper threshold lot. Onceyou get past that level spending, that's118701:20:40.359 --> 01:20:44.199where the plan really has some risksto them when you see that range.118801:20:44.239 --> 01:20:47.439As someone who's been building up thisincome of this accumulation bucket all your life,118901:20:47.920 --> 01:20:51.560now you know exactly how much youcan possibly spend. When you have119001:20:51.680 --> 01:20:57.960this kind of unknowing, you're moretimid in spending and you don't really enjoy119101:20:58.039 --> 01:21:00.760all that work that you worked forin the last forty year years. Right,119201:21:00.800 --> 01:21:01.439A lot of people they are like, I want to balance my last119301:21:01.520 --> 01:21:04.760check, okay, but they don'teven come close to it because they don't119401:21:04.760 --> 01:21:09.199know what that professilon of spending is. They don't know what too much is119501:21:09.279 --> 01:21:12.760too much, and so they kindof are extra timid. And that's where119601:21:13.079 --> 01:21:15.359you know, it's unfortunate because thesepeople really did work hard for themselves to119701:21:15.439 --> 01:21:18.680enjoy this period of life, soyou know, take advantage of that.119801:21:19.000 --> 01:21:24.000Sometimes it's just people are so habitually, you know, they've done it so119901:21:24.199 --> 01:21:27.479long that they can't spend more,Like they can't pass up a deal.120001:21:27.560 --> 01:21:30.079They you know, it's just whothey are, which is another topic of120101:21:30.199 --> 01:21:33.000you can't fit, you can't fixfrugal. Some people that you know,120201:21:33.079 --> 01:21:36.359they've they've lived a life for thirtyyears to be frugal on purpose, to120301:21:36.359 --> 01:21:41.119save money for retirement. But nowthat they're in retirement, they they've practiced120401:21:41.159 --> 01:21:43.199it for so long they don't knowhow to break. No, you can't120501:21:43.239 --> 01:21:46.079you can't do that. You can'tfix frugal. And but you've seen that,120601:21:46.119 --> 01:21:49.479because I've said in on some ofthese with you, you've seen clients120701:21:49.479 --> 01:21:54.399that I remember one that you said, you couldn't be spending twice as much120801:21:54.600 --> 01:21:59.359as you're spending and still have onehundred percent probability of success, right.120901:22:00.000 --> 01:22:03.760And I've seen you sit with clientswhere you said, there's absolutely no way121001:22:04.479 --> 01:22:10.199that you can get to the finishline like this. You've got to make121101:22:10.279 --> 01:22:14.960changes. And whether those changes,what those changes involved, we can help121201:22:15.000 --> 01:22:20.319with. Does that change involve aless spending perhaps on a vacation, less121301:22:20.359 --> 01:22:24.359spending on a mortgage. Maybe youneed to tell your house, maybe that121401:22:24.760 --> 01:22:27.760maybe you can't afford to have ahouse, Maybe you need that money,121501:22:27.800 --> 01:22:31.840Maybe you need a reverse mortgage.Any number of things and a myriad of121601:22:32.439 --> 01:22:36.039different choices, and I've sat inwith you guys on both of those,121701:22:38.000 --> 01:22:41.039and the one where you can spendtwice as much as you're spending will still121801:22:41.079 --> 01:22:44.600be okay. It's way more funthan the one where you're not going to121901:22:44.640 --> 01:22:45.800make it. Yeah, And eventhe people that are not going to make122001:22:45.800 --> 01:22:49.439it, oftentimes they have something thatis an asset, but for some reason122101:22:49.439 --> 01:22:51.880they just don't want to think ofit as an asset and it is their122201:22:51.880 --> 01:22:56.760home. Like you said, reversemortgages are a very utilized tool in this122301:22:56.840 --> 01:23:00.439space now. They were a horrorstory back in the day, but they122401:23:00.479 --> 01:23:03.760are really good product, regulated regulatedby the FHA. Now it is a122501:23:04.039 --> 01:23:06.800very different product. And what areyou used to do those? Yes,122601:23:06.960 --> 01:23:10.520you know that we have connections topeople if you if you want to get122701:23:10.560 --> 01:23:15.079quotes. These are things that canmake a difference for people in those last122801:23:15.079 --> 01:23:17.119ten fifteen years of life that theythought they could never make it past.122901:23:17.159 --> 01:23:19.920Maybe they didn't think they would livethat long, and now that they're there,123001:23:19.920 --> 01:23:24.039they have no money to live on. A lot of times they still123101:23:24.039 --> 01:23:27.199have that asset, and you know, it's the one asset they pay down123201:23:27.279 --> 01:23:29.760that is so emotionally tied to it. But at the end of the day,123301:23:30.199 --> 01:23:32.000it is what you work for,so don't forget that. Like you123401:23:32.119 --> 01:23:38.039need to make yourself comfortable at theend of the day, it's just getting123501:23:38.039 --> 01:23:44.119by living month the month essentially anddoing without while you sit on a five123601:23:44.199 --> 01:23:47.920hundred thousand dollars CD that's paying younothing exactly. It's just it's just silly,123701:23:48.039 --> 01:23:53.720right, that's not that that's that'snot why you bought it, r123801:23:53.800 --> 01:23:57.079right. You bought it to accumulatewealth, to increase your network. And123901:23:57.079 --> 01:24:00.319it's not that you lose the home. It's not what you think, right,124001:24:00.720 --> 01:24:03.720And so we have people that wedon't do reverse mortgages here, but124101:24:03.760 --> 01:24:08.880we have people that do them andthey're real and they're legitimate. And would124201:24:08.920 --> 01:24:14.760Tom Sealey g lie to you?Right? He makes me my heart warm?124301:24:15.079 --> 01:24:16.039He does. He does? Howdo you and not like that guy?124401:24:16.079 --> 01:24:18.479Come on? He comes on thereand says, I wouldn't let anybody124501:24:18.520 --> 01:24:23.079take your home anyway. We appreciateyou listening to us on this Sunday morning.124601:24:23.560 --> 01:24:28.399It was fun to have the JohnsonGroup here. They are ready,124701:24:28.439 --> 01:24:31.439willing and able to do taxes.If you're looking for someone to help you124801:24:31.479 --> 01:24:34.319with that, please give us acall. We can put you in touch124901:24:34.359 --> 01:24:38.880with him and we'll be back rightafter this break. This is the Money125001:24:38.880 --> 01:24:42.800Matter Show. Welcome back to thefinal segment of The Moneymatter Show. I'm125101:24:42.840 --> 01:24:45.159Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with ToddGlick, Dave Sherwood, and Dean Greenberg125201:24:45.640 --> 01:24:50.000talking about our new accounts that weare partnering with, Jonathan Sibelia, obviously125301:24:50.079 --> 01:24:54.039our state planner that we always workwith, and those of you. We125401:24:54.119 --> 01:24:56.439did not have time to do thiswhen we first got into the second hour,125501:24:56.479 --> 01:24:59.319so you still tuned in the markets. For the week, the Dow125601:24:59.439 --> 01:25:00.680is flat, the S and Pfive hundred was up one and a half125701:25:00.680 --> 01:25:04.319percent, the NASDAC, which istech heavy, was up two point three125801:25:04.359 --> 01:25:09.199percent, and the small cap Russelltwo thousand was up two point six percent.125901:25:09.600 --> 01:25:12.119For the week, the RSP,the equal weighted S and P five126001:25:12.199 --> 01:25:14.800hundred, was up a half apercent. And then for the year,126101:25:15.000 --> 01:25:18.640all of them are up in thepositive territory except small cap that's down a126201:25:18.680 --> 01:25:24.000half a percent. And I noticedthat the value ETFs were down for the126301:25:24.079 --> 01:25:27.560year. We did a little surveyof those. Yep I still down for126401:25:27.680 --> 01:25:30.560the year, just like last year. It's like a carbon copy of the126501:25:30.560 --> 01:25:34.399seven stocks video just busted through sevenhundred with no problem, yep, yep,126601:25:34.800 --> 01:25:38.920And it's just those stocks and Metacontinues to just kill it. So126701:25:38.960 --> 01:25:42.840we're seeing continuation of last year.So we'll see how on that last We're126801:25:42.840 --> 01:25:46.159still looking at value as a firm. Really, I think that's a much126901:25:46.159 --> 01:25:51.000more comfortable place to be adding moneyright now. Exactly. Well, every127001:25:51.000 --> 01:25:56.840week we get questions from listeners onthe show. This week we got a127101:25:56.960 --> 01:26:02.000question answer question asked yes, Isaid that right, Okay, The question127201:26:02.319 --> 01:26:05.920is what is an e t Pand what is the difference between it bitcoin127301:26:06.000 --> 01:26:10.000spot e t F and a bitcoinspot e t P. Well, a127401:26:10.279 --> 01:26:13.680t P is an exchange traded product. It's really just an umbrella term.127501:26:13.960 --> 01:26:17.119It's not an actually necessarily an actualthing. It's like an e t F127601:26:17.199 --> 01:26:20.399is underneath the umbrella, so anexchange trade product. There's other versions of127701:26:20.720 --> 01:26:25.279exchange traded products, but et Fis the most you just on the spot.127801:26:25.319 --> 01:26:27.479But could you come up with anexample of an e t P.127901:26:28.279 --> 01:26:30.399No, it's not. No,an e t P and E t F128001:26:30.520 --> 01:26:34.239is an e t P. Ict it I got it. Exchange traded128101:26:34.279 --> 01:26:39.439products than you e tfs under thatTFS E t n S, which is128201:26:39.479 --> 01:26:43.840exchange traded notes, exchange traded acategory, it's a category, and E128301:26:43.920 --> 01:26:45.880t P is in a category.So there's no benefits of using an e128401:26:45.960 --> 01:26:49.039t P over a ETF because they'rethe same exact thing. But what benefits128501:26:49.039 --> 01:26:54.920do you have using crypto Buying cryptocurrencieswith an e t F like any of128601:26:54.960 --> 01:26:59.760the spot bitcoin ETFs that came outrecently, or buying cryptocurrencies directly or on128701:27:00.000 --> 01:27:02.159sites such as Coinbase and things likethat. Now, the real risk is128801:27:02.199 --> 01:27:06.079custodianship, right who actually owns thebitcoin at the end of the day,128901:27:06.119 --> 01:27:11.000and who are you trusting? IfCoinbase goes out of business, likely your129001:27:11.000 --> 01:27:15.039bitcoin is gone or any of yourcryptocurrency is gone. If Fidelity goes out129101:27:15.079 --> 01:27:18.720of business, you have sipick insurancetechnically, so it's not necessarily gone.129201:27:18.840 --> 01:27:23.239You do have some insurance backing thatup. That's why it takes longer to129301:27:23.239 --> 01:27:26.840get regulatory approval because there's this insurancesinvolved in things like that. So an129401:27:26.840 --> 01:27:30.920ETF probably is a safer place.But in terms of like true ownership,129501:27:30.319 --> 01:27:33.920it's not true ownership. I mean, I mean I guess it's if you129601:27:33.960 --> 01:27:38.520bought bitcoin in your private wallet orcryptocurrency in your private wallet, you truly129701:27:38.520 --> 01:27:41.880own it. It's like you holdingphysical gold, it's truly yours. There's129801:27:41.880 --> 01:27:45.560no intermediary party holding your stuff.But if you use a coinbase, you129901:27:45.640 --> 01:27:48.920use Fidelity, a Spot, bitcoinetf anything, there's someone holding your asset130001:27:48.960 --> 01:27:53.119the same way as if you're buyinggold etf right. You don't actually own130101:27:53.199 --> 01:27:57.760the gold, you own the rightthat someone else is holding the gold right.130201:27:57.800 --> 01:28:00.279So that's really the difference of wherethe money is held. But all130301:28:00.279 --> 01:28:03.239in all, I talked about itin the earlier the show. The bitcoin130401:28:03.319 --> 01:28:10.199spot etf for Fidelity at least hastracked perfectly onto the bitcoin spot bitcoin spot130501:28:10.239 --> 01:28:14.560price, so it's done its joband way for us is the way as130601:28:14.760 --> 01:28:17.880money managers. Here, we weren'table to buy bitcoin four client yeah right130701:28:17.960 --> 01:28:20.800from we could buy coin base,but we couldn't buy bitcoin for them.130801:28:21.000 --> 01:28:25.880We have the closed end fund GBTCor the futures based exactly, but this130901:28:25.960 --> 01:28:29.880is the first time as a moneymanager that we can buy bitcoin. That's131001:28:29.920 --> 01:28:31.880the closest we can get to buyinga straight bitcoin for Coe and the biggest131101:28:31.880 --> 01:28:35.840thing is for really institutions because USmoney managers makes it easier, for sure,131201:28:36.199 --> 01:28:41.279but also for institutions, it makesit actually possible for the first time131301:28:41.600 --> 01:28:44.960you need to Actually, they arenot allowed to buy futures based ETFs.131401:28:45.159 --> 01:28:48.640They have to buy Spot settled ETFs, and that's in most mandates of institutions.131501:28:48.640 --> 01:28:55.760It would seemed to me that thereare advantages to buying the ETF versus131601:28:55.800 --> 01:29:00.520the physical bitcoin, and there aredisadvantages to buy in the individual So it131701:29:00.560 --> 01:29:03.479seems to me there's no downside.Well there's a downside. This will not131801:29:03.479 --> 01:29:08.039forget there's an expense ratio of thisFINT right, so you're not getting jap131901:29:08.840 --> 01:29:13.000right right now, Fidelity isn't chargingany expense ratio until August, so it's132001:29:13.039 --> 01:29:16.600going to track perfectly. But eventuallybitcoin spot will outpace any Spot bitcoin ETF132101:29:16.640 --> 01:29:20.239because any Spot bitcoiny TF will havean expense ratio attached to it. The132201:29:20.319 --> 01:29:25.000highest one is GBTC, which isalso the most traded one right now,132301:29:25.159 --> 01:29:29.199so it was very interesting. Themarket doesn't realize that, but gbtc's expense132401:29:29.279 --> 01:29:30.880ratio is one point five, wherethe average is around you know, zero132501:29:30.880 --> 01:29:34.399point six, So it's it's yeah, they're way higher. That is really132601:29:34.439 --> 01:29:40.119that is the only dissident, correctand the advantage if you don't have to132701:29:40.119 --> 01:29:44.439worry. I thought you you've wordedit perfectly. Custodian. That's that's the132801:29:44.560 --> 01:29:47.640key. Custodian. Yeah, ifyou forget your password, there's no you132901:29:47.640 --> 01:29:50.520know, forget your password. Yeah, you forget your password, can't get133001:29:50.560 --> 01:29:54.439your bitin. You forget your Greenbergfinancial pass where you just call us up,133101:29:55.239 --> 01:29:58.439you get back into your account.Right, that doesn't work when you133201:29:58.439 --> 01:30:01.119own your own stuff. Coin Basegoes on your your bitcoin could be gone.133301:30:01.880 --> 01:30:04.840Yeah, there's no CIPIC insurance forcoinbas as far as I'm aware.133401:30:04.920 --> 01:30:08.760Oh, we have heard stories aboutpeople that forgot their password can't get to133501:30:08.840 --> 01:30:11.960their bitcoin. So the one thingabout the ETF, it's far and away133601:30:12.000 --> 01:30:15.800the better way to go if you'rewanting exposure to bitcoin. For the majority133701:30:15.800 --> 01:30:19.319of people, it seems to me, we won't even go. Don't go133801:30:19.479 --> 01:30:27.119that, don't even go for theA couple of couple of the more newsworthy133901:30:27.159 --> 01:30:30.800stocks this week, and video anothernew all time high, as the chip134001:30:30.840 --> 01:30:38.359maker is quadrupled since December thirty one, of twenty two quadrupled. Yeah,134101:30:38.399 --> 01:30:41.279I had something to talk about withthe semiconductor space as a whole, because134201:30:41.520 --> 01:30:44.439obviously that space has been killing anARM was up fifty percent one day this134301:30:44.479 --> 01:30:46.479week when they report earnings. Yousaid it's four times the pe of the134401:30:46.560 --> 01:30:50.159video, which is just ridiculous.AMD has been killing it, which really134501:30:50.199 --> 01:30:55.199those are the top three, butSMCI super micro computer has been killing it134601:30:55.239 --> 01:31:00.760as well. Inventory levels remain extremelyhigh in the They have come down a134701:31:00.800 --> 01:31:03.359lot. They were at fifty fivepercent and the start at twenty twenty three134801:31:03.880 --> 01:31:09.439semiconductor inventory levels globally and now they'redown to around twenty five percent. So134901:31:09.720 --> 01:31:13.600the demand has eat up ate upsome of that supply, but it's still135001:31:13.720 --> 01:31:16.640very high. So the reason Ibring that up is you need demand to135101:31:16.720 --> 01:31:19.800continue. Now, me and Dyliwhen we were talking about this, we135201:31:19.840 --> 01:31:25.600don't really see any possibility of thedemand slowing. I don't know what you135301:31:25.640 --> 01:31:28.399think about that. It seems likedemand will stay level. So if it135401:31:28.399 --> 01:31:30.760stays level here, it makes sensethat the margins stay the same, the135501:31:30.760 --> 01:31:33.720profits, sales all stay the same. The only thing that's the concern is135601:31:33.760 --> 01:31:39.199for some reason demand starts to leveloff or doesn't keep up, then those135701:31:39.199 --> 01:31:42.640margins will get squeezed and revenue willcome down. Because I mean I see135801:31:42.640 --> 01:31:45.279it as in videos Far and abovegot the best chip right now, so135901:31:45.279 --> 01:31:48.319all these other chip makers are tryingto catch up to that. So does136001:31:48.399 --> 01:31:53.880nvidios demand slow down as these otherchip makers catch up, because maybe they'll136101:31:53.880 --> 01:31:56.840have a cheaper one the same computingpower, that's the only thing. But136201:31:56.880 --> 01:31:59.399then that demand increases. So asa whole of the industry, I don't136301:31:59.439 --> 01:32:02.359see it slow and well, theindustry has that's exactly why you're having this136401:32:02.880 --> 01:32:09.279such surge of global inventories. Everyperson that can make a semiconductors trying to136501:32:09.399 --> 01:32:12.439right now. So you have sucha supply out there, but you also136601:32:12.479 --> 01:32:15.239have a lot of demands. Sothat's why there's no issues right now.136701:32:15.479 --> 01:32:17.880It's just as if there's demand fallsoff for some reason, you're still going136801:32:17.960 --> 01:32:21.319to have all this supply, andthat's a bad news for any think about136901:32:21.319 --> 01:32:24.600it, like in the chips ofa phone. When the iPhone first came137001:32:24.640 --> 01:32:26.359out, I think it was whatlike thirty two, it was like one137101:32:26.399 --> 01:32:29.800hundred gigabytes. It wasn't a lot, maybe one gigabyte. Now you got137201:32:29.800 --> 01:32:33.399a phone, your regular phone isholding five hundred gigabytes worth of storage.137301:32:33.560 --> 01:32:36.760They keep getting better and they getastronomically better, quicker, and that's what's137401:32:36.760 --> 01:32:40.760happening with these AI chips. Andthen it just becomes the norm to have137501:32:40.840 --> 01:32:43.359these and demands never slowed down forthese chips. Well, the biggest thing137601:32:43.439 --> 01:32:45.359is the efficiency. So it's notthat we're putting more chips into the phone,137701:32:45.359 --> 01:32:48.439but we're using more of the thingsthat we use in technology like cars137801:32:48.439 --> 01:32:53.119for example. How many chips gointo the evs right, That used to137901:32:53.159 --> 01:32:56.840never be a thing. So that'sa huge surge of supply you need for138001:32:56.920 --> 01:33:02.119that market. Huge toasters, right, freaking fridges have TVs now, So138101:33:02.319 --> 01:33:06.920I mean all these different things thatused to not need semiconductors now need them.138201:33:08.239 --> 01:33:12.000That will probably continue. Yeah,I started hearing last week. Uh,138301:33:13.000 --> 01:33:17.199and videos clearly has the best chipout there efficiency wise, for sure.138401:33:17.319 --> 01:33:20.399What if you don't need the bestchip. I mean, what if138501:33:20.439 --> 01:33:25.279you decide, you know, that'scargoes. Okay, this car will go138601:33:25.319 --> 01:33:27.760one hundred and thirty miles. Nowyou get the China version. What if138701:33:27.800 --> 01:33:30.000I don't need a car they goto hundred, Yeah, you get the138801:33:30.079 --> 01:33:31.920China version that in video sold tothem that because they couldn't give them the138901:33:31.920 --> 01:33:34.640good you couldn't give them a goodone. I'm just wondering that the demand139001:33:34.680 --> 01:33:41.960for these chips that in video hasis from meta's from Microsoft. Yeah,139101:33:42.039 --> 01:33:44.680you know, chrs, do weget to a point where we say,139201:33:44.760 --> 01:33:47.920you know what, we really don'tneed to spend forty thousand dollars per ship,139301:33:48.239 --> 01:33:51.880right, especially if it doesn't bringyou revenue right now? Right because139401:33:51.880 --> 01:33:55.920everything they're doing is building out,you know, they're building out these future139501:33:56.000 --> 01:33:58.760revenue sources. They're not bringing moneyin, right, No, you're right,139601:33:58.760 --> 01:34:01.960they're just right Well sense go backto the phone example, iPhones came139701:34:01.960 --> 01:34:04.680out with the iPhone five C orthe iPhone ten C, which is a139801:34:04.760 --> 01:34:08.640cheaper version of the new one whenthis all came out, and it's because139901:34:08.680 --> 01:34:11.520they started just making every new iPhonewas better and better and better and better.140001:34:11.680 --> 01:34:14.000But then they realized they hit apoint where people didn't want to spend140101:34:14.000 --> 01:34:16.399a thousand dollars on a new phone, so they brought it back a little140201:34:16.479 --> 01:34:19.439less processing power, but it wasa cheaper phone, about half price.140301:34:19.680 --> 01:34:24.680It was the iPhone C or whateverit was, and people started buying those140401:34:24.760 --> 01:34:27.520up because they're like, it's stilljust it's as powerful for me as I140501:34:27.560 --> 01:34:30.800needed to be. I think you'reprobably was something you said earlier. I140601:34:30.800 --> 01:34:34.119think every pullback in and video,if there is one, will be a140701:34:34.159 --> 01:34:40.000buying opportunity for the foreseeable future.Yeah, I agree. Yeah, they140801:34:40.760 --> 01:34:46.000eli Lilly, you'd be. Icame back from babysitting the two grandkids with140901:34:46.079 --> 01:34:53.239some issues. Well I'm always killingit ever since, for the last year,141001:34:53.319 --> 01:34:56.399really for last summer. Though it'sgone up like two hundred points,141101:34:56.520 --> 01:34:59.640it's doubled in the last twelve months, rally to another new all time high141201:34:59.680 --> 01:35:03.560on two after they reported revenue andit didn't come well above expectations on the141301:35:03.600 --> 01:35:08.680back of a strong launch of theirweight loss drugs Zip Zip Bound and they141401:35:09.239 --> 01:35:13.399just launched that and apparently it wentlike blockbusters, which is kind of what141501:35:13.439 --> 01:35:18.960we expected supposed to be from allreports, more effective than any other weight141601:35:19.000 --> 01:35:24.520loss drug. In fact, amJohn hit an all time high last week141701:35:24.680 --> 01:35:28.199a week ago on hopes for theirweight loss drug and then the Lily came141801:35:28.199 --> 01:35:30.279out this past week and go,oh, well, we've looked at this.141901:35:30.359 --> 01:35:32.520It's not anywhere near as good asours and this dock dropped twelve percent.142001:35:32.640 --> 01:35:34.439Well, we're coming up on theLast Minute show, so there's a142101:35:34.439 --> 01:35:36.800lot of people that are gonna needsome you know, ozembick and we go142201:35:36.960 --> 01:35:41.239after this weekend. A lot ofgood Super Bowl Football food coming up on142301:35:41.319 --> 01:35:45.159Sundays. So since it is SuperBowl Sunday, and uh, game time142401:35:45.279 --> 01:35:48.039is about what four hours from fromabout this time, or maybe it was142501:35:48.159 --> 01:35:51.159six hours about six hours from thistime. So who are we picking?142601:35:51.279 --> 01:35:55.680Right, I'm no, I'm aNiners fans all nine that Veers are favored142701:35:55.680 --> 01:35:59.640by two. Yeah, so whereyou going? I'm Kansas City, Kansas142801:35:59.680 --> 01:36:02.520City going Niners all day. Ilove to hear going Niners. It's going142901:36:02.600 --> 01:36:05.920to be a fun one. Andyou want to send us out going against143001:36:06.159 --> 01:36:12.079going against, going against Pat Mahonis like going against that video baby h143101:36:12.560 --> 01:36:15.720Okay. Here at Greenberg Financial,we like to be happy. We're always143201:36:15.720 --> 01:36:17.720happy. We love to be healthy. That's a big deal. What we're143301:36:17.760 --> 01:36:21.319really trying to do at the endof the day is be profitable.