S&P 500 Has Returned to a Bull Market - Here’s Why

1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Good morning, Welcome to the Money Matter Show. This is Dave Sherwood. 2 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:08,960 I'm here with Todd Glick. Dylan Greenberg is going to be joining this dean 3 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:13,039 and out of town. We look forward to having him back at some point, 4 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:17,120 but it's probably not going to be this month. Just FYI. You 5 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,199 know at the middle of June and the Sonoran Desert and you and I, 6 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:25,480 Todd both spend a lot of time outside. Man, has it been nice 7 00:00:25,519 --> 00:00:29,879 by June standards? Are you kidding me? We actually did have a record. 8 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,439 I think I told you about this. I've lived here fifty years, 9 00:00:33,439 --> 00:00:36,399 and it's pretty rare to have an entire month of May with no one hundred 10 00:00:36,399 --> 00:00:40,240 degree temperature. Just not unheard of, but it's pretty rare. That's exactly 11 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,520 what happened this year. In fact, here's the record thirty five days from 12 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,520 the first one hundred degree day, which was April thirtieth, to the second 13 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:52,920 one hundred degree day, which was June fourth, And that's the longest period 14 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,640 between the first and the second in history. I think that's probably a product 15 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,000 of the first one being a little too earlier this year. Yeah, it 16 00:00:59,039 --> 00:01:02,960 was definitely early. I mean I'm almost at the earliest in history. So, 17 00:01:03,359 --> 00:01:08,760 uh that that that's the caveat. Big headlines this week probably uh smoke 18 00:01:08,799 --> 00:01:14,239 in New York City and the Trump indictment. Those are kind of the two 19 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:19,439 headline making news items this week. Yeah, it was incredible to see those 20 00:01:19,439 --> 00:01:22,920 pictures out of New York. I mean it looked like Gotham City, almost 21 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,120 like those movies. You know, it was incredible movie. It was really 22 00:01:26,159 --> 00:01:30,000 weird to see it. How it didn't remind you of that California pictures of 23 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,719 a couple of years ago. Yeah, it did, it did, And 24 00:01:33,799 --> 00:01:38,280 it's of course I think one day or two days, they had the worst 25 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:42,799 air quality in the world. Yeah, New York City or any major city. 26 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:47,280 I saw that caveat. So I don't know if that means smaller cities 27 00:01:47,359 --> 00:01:49,920 have way worse. I don't know. It's hard to say, but yeah, 28 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,760 I mean to be worse than Shanghai. You know, I'm thinking, 29 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,359 I'm thinking to have have bad air quality, you probably have to be a 30 00:01:57,359 --> 00:02:00,879 major metropolitan area unless you have like a really bad local small town that has 31 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:05,120 run off from a really big plant somewhere. Yeah, it messes up like 32 00:02:05,159 --> 00:02:07,039 everything in the environment. I'm from Clark, South Dakota. We didn't have 33 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,840 bad air days there. There was eleven hundred people and everybody seemed to get 34 00:02:10,879 --> 00:02:15,240 along fine. Yeah. I think both small towns are fine. Yeah. 35 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:21,680 Talk about the Trump indictment that about a month ago. I think some of 36 00:02:21,719 --> 00:02:23,479 you know. I decided, like many, like many Americans, frankly, 37 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:28,159 to give up on the news. I'd had enough because it really isn't the 38 00:02:28,199 --> 00:02:31,400 news. We've talked about this nauseum. It's someone's opinion of the news. 39 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:36,000 And I don't care if it's Fox or CNN or who it is. It's 40 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:40,240 someone's opinion of the news. I miss Walter Cronkite like mad right. We 41 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:45,319 need a half an hour of news every night at supper time, and that's 42 00:02:45,319 --> 00:02:49,080 not really all we need. Ted Turner had this idea about twenty four seven 43 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:53,000 news, and it's it's it made sense, I guess on paper. But 44 00:02:53,039 --> 00:02:57,199 when you have twenty four seven news and you only really have news for thirty 45 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,560 minutes a day, you end up with an a lot of opinions. Any 46 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:05,560 I digress. For the past month, the only news I've gotten is from 47 00:03:05,599 --> 00:03:08,039 the business networks. I typically work out todd as you do, and when 48 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,000 it gets but when it gets too hot, I go to the gym, 49 00:03:12,039 --> 00:03:14,439 and I went to the gym last week. It hit one hundred for I 50 00:03:14,479 --> 00:03:17,639 think, what the third time this year. Last week on Tuesday or Wednesday. 51 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:22,719 I remember the day, and CNN is on the TV in front of 52 00:03:22,719 --> 00:03:28,120 the shreadmill, so I really can't avoid it. And I was absolutely not 53 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,719 shocked to see that there's still one hundred percent Trump indictment one hundred percent of 54 00:03:31,759 --> 00:03:36,680 the time. I mean, there really isn't much news on CNN other than 55 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,960 Trump and Trump's indictment and what that's going to mean. They're just dying for 56 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:46,439 payback there. They're dying to get him convicted so he can't run. That's 57 00:03:46,479 --> 00:03:49,439 not going to happen. We know the court system, how it moves, 58 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:57,039 how slowly it moves. The chances of him being convicted of anything pretty close 59 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,879 to zero between now in the election, and frankly, I think that's his 60 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,560 strategy is now, if I just get elected president, then that's four more 61 00:04:03,639 --> 00:04:08,439 years that they'll leave me alone. They have to leave me alone, and 62 00:04:08,439 --> 00:04:12,199 by then I'm eighty two. Who cares? Maybe they don't even care anymore. 63 00:04:12,639 --> 00:04:15,040 But you know, it's no wonder at watching the CNN and this odd 64 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:21,040 nauseum coverage. It's no wonder that their ratings are so low. I noticed 65 00:04:21,079 --> 00:04:28,800 that recently, a couple of days they've actually had ratings below Newsmax. Now, 66 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:30,720 I don't even know how to pull up Newsmax. I don't know where 67 00:04:30,759 --> 00:04:34,040 you would get Newsmax. I don't know if it's on my computer, on 68 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:39,319 my phone, on TV, I don't. I have no idea. Yeah, 69 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,079 and like you said, the Walter Cronkike era made it very easy for 70 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:46,120 people to all receive the same type of flow, and world wasn't as divisive 71 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:50,600 during that. If you looked at American politics half a century ago, you'll 72 00:04:50,639 --> 00:04:55,839 see that there was a lot of bipartisan actions. They would actually compromise and 73 00:04:55,879 --> 00:05:00,160 come to the table and figure a solution out. And unfortunately, the one 74 00:05:00,439 --> 00:05:06,879 side effect of technology has been the increasingly easily it facilitates echo chambers. Right, 75 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:11,639 it facilitates the ability to find what information you want. And really, 76 00:05:11,639 --> 00:05:14,319 at the end of the day, it's doesn't you can find your own facts, 77 00:05:15,079 --> 00:05:16,560 right, You don't have to find It's not just that's a fact, 78 00:05:16,879 --> 00:05:19,959 you can't dispute it. No, it's I can find my own fact based 79 00:05:19,959 --> 00:05:23,959 on my own evidence. And that's where we're at in America, and that's 80 00:05:23,959 --> 00:05:28,079 why we are so divisive. And you really see that you can argue the 81 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:33,279 same thing and have completely different ways of coming about the argument. It's how 82 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,439 we ever get past this? I don't I don't know. I don't know 83 00:05:36,439 --> 00:05:40,879 if technology is going to help us get it past it or continuously make it 84 00:05:40,879 --> 00:05:44,560 worse. But it's definitely I feel like made it worse over the past half 85 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:50,160 century. Yeah, social media certainly has been has helped propel this divisiveness, 86 00:05:50,519 --> 00:05:56,040 But I the root is cable news. That's the root. Twenty four seven 87 00:05:56,079 --> 00:06:01,360 News is the root more so than the Internet. Yes, I'm talking the 88 00:06:01,439 --> 00:06:06,160 route where it all starts, all right, It all starts with CNN and 89 00:06:06,199 --> 00:06:11,800 with fire. You just said CNN's viewership is nothing, So all the view 90 00:06:11,959 --> 00:06:14,399 all the eyes are really on the Internet, not on CNN. Well, 91 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,879 it ends responding to the Internet in my opinion. You know what's interesting about 92 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,240 this c and I'm thinking, how long will it be before Warner Brothers just 93 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:27,639 turns it off? You know that. You know they had their worst CNN 94 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,399 had their worst year for profitability in seven years last year and they still made 95 00:06:31,759 --> 00:06:35,439 a billion dollars, Yeah, a billion dollars, And we talked a lot 96 00:06:35,439 --> 00:06:40,639 of their funding comes from big corporations that want them to spell out a certain 97 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,439 thing. Right. It's all advertisement money, and so they have a certain 98 00:06:44,519 --> 00:06:48,120 narrative they want to get across. Let's talk about our disclaimer, which is 99 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,439 another fun thing to talk about. The show sponsored by Greenberg Finance Group. 100 00:06:51,439 --> 00:06:55,199 You can listen on seven ninety K and st or I Heart Radio. The 101 00:06:55,199 --> 00:07:00,399 show discusses different investment products and strategies. Every product and strategy has type of 102 00:07:00,399 --> 00:07:03,519 inherent risk. We strongly encourage our listeners to probably understand these risks because when 103 00:07:03,519 --> 00:07:06,720 they're understood, one can probably decide whether to buy, sell, or hold. 104 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,480 The show has been on the air for for thirty years. Greenberg Financial 105 00:07:10,519 --> 00:07:15,560 as a member of FINNR and SIPPIC and is registered with the SEC. Quiet 106 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,800 Week and the markets did not have a lot of action moving up and down. 107 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:23,120 The Dow up point three, s ANDP up point four, NASDAC only 108 00:07:23,199 --> 00:07:26,279 up point one. And we shid last week that we thought that this week 109 00:07:26,319 --> 00:07:28,759 would be quiet. You you were kind of think it could be as much 110 00:07:28,759 --> 00:07:30,959 as a one percent and pull back you know, it's funny. Every time 111 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,600 they tried to pull back away, it went again. It was weird. 112 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:39,240 This morning I woke up and seeing the futures and and we were responding to 113 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:44,279 Chinese inflation down to not being as strong. So maybe the Fed doesne It's 114 00:07:44,279 --> 00:07:47,639 like they they'll look, yeah, they'll they'll look for anything to help get 115 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:53,040 this thing back up. And we actually are technically in the bull market for 116 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,240 the SMP, and we are in that environment. Every now and then the 117 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,879 market will get in an environment where all news is good or all news is 118 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,959 bad. We're in that market where all news is good right now. Yeah. 119 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:09,800 And it's it's hard to understand because we have an economy. Economic numbers 120 00:08:09,839 --> 00:08:15,879 are consistently showing the economy is slowing. We've seen a number of corporate earnings 121 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:24,839 reports suggesting slowing guidance. It does appear that the economy is slowly slowing down. 122 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:30,680 The IMF cut growth forecast for the US and the world. And yet 123 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:35,559 here's the SMP five hundred Friday, within three points of the fifty two week 124 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,080 high, right, and it is technically in a bull market, which is 125 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:43,279 defined as coming off its lows by twenty percent. Yeah, twenty percent moved 126 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,240 up, it becomes a bull market. Twenty percent moved down, it becomes 127 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,840 a bear market. I think it was back in twenty twenty we had a 128 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,440 bull market to a bear market to a bull market, all within about forty 129 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:58,120 five days. So you know, it is what it, call it what 130 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,480 you like. I think the big story, and we've talked about as a 131 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:05,960 nausium, is that the SMP year to date returns twelve percent, the equal 132 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:11,320 weighted SMP two point eight percent. The reason that is is you have those 133 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:15,639 big six seven companies that are really just taking off. Their others are not 134 00:09:15,879 --> 00:09:20,200 going as much, right, and when you're looking at a twenty percent off 135 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:24,320 the low and all going into the new bull market, that's normally because the 136 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:28,159 entire economy is coming out right, not seven big companies. And a lot 137 00:09:28,159 --> 00:09:33,200 of those seven big companies are related to what the AI rally, the AI 138 00:09:33,039 --> 00:09:37,120 boom that we're experienced this first part of twenty twenty three because of Chat, 139 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:41,600 GBT, Navidio. We saw how that responded, and that's really just continuously 140 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:46,480 putting more momentum behind these indexes. Cramer calls them the Magnificent seven, and 141 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:50,919 they really have driven the market. The nasjac's up almost twenty seven percent for 142 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,960 the year, and the equal weighted SMP five hundred is up less than three. 143 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:00,200 That tells you that the Procter and Gambles, they're Johnson and john since 144 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:05,440 the Merks, the Verizons, they're just not participating. We saw a week 145 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:11,320 ago Friday that seven hundred point rally. That was because those guys all participated. 146 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:16,440 They actually outperformed the NASDAC that day. And that's what you need to 147 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:20,759 see a sustainable move higher is you need to see broader participation, and we're 148 00:10:20,759 --> 00:10:26,080 not seeing that right now. No. And you know, a bull can 149 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,440 make its case that there's still a lot of money market funds on the sideline 150 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:35,159 that could get poured into this market make it go a little higher, but 151 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,360 at the end of the day, there just seems something frothy about this that 152 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,519 it just keeps getting higher and higher and there's really no reason for it. 153 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:46,679 There's a symbol v i X, the VIX. It's it's the fear indicator. 154 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:50,159 You can't trade it, but it is all. You can buy calls, 155 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,919 and you can buy calls and puts on the VIX, but and they 156 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,879 don't mimic it that, well, I've played that game a little bit. 157 00:10:56,919 --> 00:10:58,960 Options game. Yeah, you know, the options on the VIX and Partake 158 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,679 Killer can be a little bit crazy, and so I've not played that. 159 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:05,919 I don't know. I shouldn't say that I've played that game. Got my 160 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,320 hat handed to me and said, okay, that's enough of that. You 161 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,159 know, I'm a slow learner, but not that slow anyway. The VIX, 162 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:18,679 which is the fear indicator, is the lowest sense February of twenty twenty. 163 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:24,080 And you might say that's good to me, that's an alarm belt because 164 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:28,240 that's saying that there's not a lot of buyers right now or sellers. And 165 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,120 when you have autily going super low, when you've had an up trend, 166 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:37,240 that's normally an indication that he could reverse Complacency. That absolutely one hundred percent 167 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:43,919 right, that's an inverse indicator. Complacency is warning you that that everybody is 168 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:50,320 really comfortable and the slightest little thing that goes off center. And I'm not 169 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,120 expecting a big crash now, you know, ten twenty percent, but we've 170 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:58,919 gotten frothy here at the SMP five hundred is about fifty percent above where historically 171 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:01,799 what we said that last week, and it wasn't even higher. And what 172 00:12:01,799 --> 00:12:05,320 we mean by that is the price to earnings price charning using the traditional price 173 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:11,879 sharnings major. The fear index is the lowest it's been in over three years. 174 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:16,480 Those are all things that you really don't want to see if you think 175 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,759 in the if you want the market to go higher. So the Economy Bank 176 00:12:20,799 --> 00:12:24,720 of America says consumer spending is slowing, and again that would be consistent with 177 00:12:24,879 --> 00:12:31,399 the quarterly earnings reports that we just saw a lot of them predicted h guidance 178 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:35,720 was disappointing or reduced that things going forward aren't going to be that great. 179 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:41,919 The government reported last week the highest first time jobless claims since October of twenty 180 00:12:41,919 --> 00:12:46,759 one. That was a really interesting report and one that the SMP in the 181 00:12:46,799 --> 00:12:50,399 market did respond to briefly. And I'm interested to see how that continues, 182 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,360 because last week the labor market report was just weird, right, I mean, 183 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:58,639 you had the unemployment increase, but non farm non farm payrolls increase as 184 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,720 well, Like how does that all stop? You? Now, let's see 185 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:07,279 it. You know it's it's they're trying to do it in a quick manner. 186 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:11,320 And so they're using, they're using snapshots. It's like when you're pulling 187 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,639 people after during the election. You know, you try it, you try 188 00:13:13,639 --> 00:13:16,000 to get it right. And if you do this and ask this, ask 189 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:20,519 these questions of these people, you've got an eighty percent chance of getting it 190 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,159 right, but you've also got a twenty percent chance of getting it wrong. 191 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:30,360 So um, that can happen. But again, everything we're seeing would indicate 192 00:13:30,399 --> 00:13:33,919 that the market and the economy are excuse me, the economy is slowing down. 193 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:39,919 But but what traders are seeing, Todd, I think is this Goldie 194 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,440 locks scenario where the Federal Reserve is not going to raise interest rates any further. 195 00:13:45,039 --> 00:13:52,159 Right, AI is going to drive corporate profits. Recession has been avoided. 196 00:13:52,879 --> 00:13:56,360 H every We did come in for the soft landing and succeeded, and 197 00:13:56,519 --> 00:14:00,919 now we've all disembarked and it's time to head to the beach and party. 198 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:05,919 Yeah. The only problem with that is then you your soul driver is fomo 199 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,480 at that point, right, everyone's gonna be like, oh, well, 200 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,399 we're gonna miss out. We've been playing cautious for the last X number of 201 00:14:11,399 --> 00:14:13,960 months, but this is the big bull run. I need to go in 202 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,320 now. Yeah, there is absolutely a fear of missing out. Yeah, 203 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,600 and that's obviously why we've had such a big run up in distort fomo is 204 00:14:22,639 --> 00:14:26,320 fear of missing out. We see that. We see that a lot with 205 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:33,559 memestocks in the crypto and US. It's just that feeling that, oh, 206 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:37,639 they're getting thirty percent returns, even when that person's risk tolerance is probably like 207 00:14:37,679 --> 00:14:39,279 a fifty sure, but they're like, oh, I want the thirty percent 208 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,320 returns, not knowing that those returns come with a great amount of risk associated 209 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,600 with them. If you can't stomach that risk, you can't be looking at 210 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,639 those returns, right. Talk about all the time on the show looking at 211 00:14:50,639 --> 00:14:54,120 the S and P five hundred as a benchmarks your portfolio, especially when your 212 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,720 portfolio is balanced. It's just not right. You have to look at it 213 00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:01,679 apples and apples, not apples to O. Yeah. Absolutely, you can't. 214 00:15:01,879 --> 00:15:05,159 I guess, I guess you can't. You can't drive to Phoenix in 215 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:11,559 an hour without taking excessive risk, right, Yeah, that's your way to 216 00:15:11,559 --> 00:15:13,320 put It's gonna happen. And if you if you can't handle going one hundred 217 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,480 and forty miles an hour on the freeway, then you probably won't get to 218 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,639 Phoenix in an hour, right, Relax, Yeah, it's gonna be okay, 219 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,879 it'll it'll still be there. And every one of these opportunities that you 220 00:15:24,919 --> 00:15:28,200 think you've missed, there's always another train coming. I've been doing this for 221 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,639 a long time. There's always another train coming, and you just need to 222 00:15:31,679 --> 00:15:37,600 be patient. Uh, stick within your risk parameters, wait for your train, 223 00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:41,799 and you'll you'll have a chance. Yeah. Extreme fomo and extreme fear 224 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,159 are the two emotions you need to look out for when you're investing, right, 225 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,919 because when you're extremely fearful, you think you need to sell everything just 226 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:52,720 at the one time where you probably should be buying, and right when you 227 00:15:52,759 --> 00:15:54,720 have that extreme fomo. If oh it could just it could go to four 228 00:15:54,799 --> 00:15:58,519 hundred to five hundred, Yeah, I could, but it can also go 229 00:15:58,559 --> 00:16:00,600 from four hundred to two hundred. And we're talking late last week and we 230 00:16:00,679 --> 00:16:06,679 do have an inverse position an insurance policy on all of our accounts, less 231 00:16:06,679 --> 00:16:10,919 than ten percent, but it's still an insurance policy. And we were talking 232 00:16:10,919 --> 00:16:12,480 about what our thoughts were, and I said, well, this has got 233 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,720 to be a really good sign, because I want to take that and sell 234 00:16:15,759 --> 00:16:18,759 it all. I want to sell all the insurance, So that's that's got 235 00:16:18,759 --> 00:16:22,440 to be. We're not immune to that. We're not immune to those feelings. 236 00:16:22,879 --> 00:16:27,240 But what a money manager can do, and I've seen this written up 237 00:16:27,279 --> 00:16:30,240 before that this is the number one thing that you pay for with a money 238 00:16:30,279 --> 00:16:33,840 manager is take the emotion out of it. Yeah. And and we have 239 00:16:33,919 --> 00:16:38,279 the we have the we have emotions, but they don't impact our trading. 240 00:16:38,639 --> 00:16:41,879 It's like the Federal Reserve, right, they say they're data dependent, Yeah, 241 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,799 and whether they are not, you know, we also would say we 242 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:51,080 are data dependent, which brings up an interesting point where next week's calendar is 243 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:55,519 a lot busier than this week's calendar with two major things on it and on 244 00:16:55,559 --> 00:16:59,879 Tuesday, the CPI. Yeah, and that's interesting because the CPI has dropped 245 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:04,359 or ten consecutive months. The Cleveland Fed has been predicting over the last few 246 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:10,440 days Todd that the CPI number on Tuesday is going to be two point five. 247 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:15,720 Two point five. Who's saying this, the Cleveland Fed, and they've 248 00:17:15,759 --> 00:17:19,640 it's been widely reported on MSNBC that it's going to be two point five the 249 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:25,319 overall, not their district, no, the overall up and if that's the 250 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:30,559 case. That's a fifty percent decline from from the from April. Right, 251 00:17:30,759 --> 00:17:34,480 that's a fifty percent decline. It would be the biggest month over month decline 252 00:17:34,519 --> 00:17:41,359 in inflation ever. H Now, let me say this. We've talked about 253 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:45,759 this on the show too. We've said that when the Fed fund rate gets 254 00:17:45,839 --> 00:17:51,519 above the rate of inflation, which it is, that inflation tends to drop 255 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:56,119 rather precipitously. Right. Also, the other thing we need to keep in 256 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,240 mind, and we haven't said this for a while, is there's a lot 257 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:03,440 of lagging data in the CPI calculation. One of it is housing sector. 258 00:18:04,039 --> 00:18:08,799 You don't get this month's housing data in this month's CPI. It's a twelve 259 00:18:08,799 --> 00:18:14,400 month lag. So we're getting last year's housing market when it really did fall 260 00:18:14,519 --> 00:18:18,960 precipitously, that's now showing up in today's CPI. That must be what they're 261 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,440 saying. The dropping oil that I can, you know, big dropping oil 262 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,200 prices. Oil creep back up to eighties, now it's seventy again. And 263 00:18:26,279 --> 00:18:30,119 I think the biggest one in thirty three percent of CPI, I believe is 264 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,559 housing. Think they're doing with forty one anyway, it's a big chunk. 265 00:18:33,599 --> 00:18:37,400 It's a huge chunk, right, and so if that would make sense that 266 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,200 that would cause a big drop, because other than that, there's really it 267 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:44,440 doesn't feel like anything has gone super cheap like that. No, and Defender 268 00:18:44,519 --> 00:18:49,359 Reserve is is indicating that they're going to keep interest rates flat at the meeting 269 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:55,240 next week. I see like a fifteen percent chance. Yeah, rating crease, 270 00:18:55,559 --> 00:18:59,079 so almost no chance. Now that doesn't mean they won't, but they're 271 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:03,640 generally pretty aware of what's going on in the market, and if you get 272 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,160 a CPI number, they may know the CPI number or may have an indication 273 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,599 that it's going to be in that two and a half three percent range. 274 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,279 If that's the case, then their fight is almost over, right. And 275 00:19:14,319 --> 00:19:18,920 they did say that they are allowed to change their decisions after the CPI comes 276 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,960 out because they meet on Tuesday, but there they can change their decision if 277 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:23,400 they need it to for any reason. Well, they get CPI the very 278 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,279 first thing, Tuesday morning, and then their meeting, the second half of 279 00:19:26,279 --> 00:19:29,599 their meeting is on Tuesday, right, I'm sorry, the first half of 280 00:19:29,599 --> 00:19:32,519 the meetings on Tuesday and the second half on Wednesday, So we don't find 281 00:19:32,559 --> 00:19:36,480 out until around eleven am TuS on time on Wednesday. What they're going to 282 00:19:36,559 --> 00:19:40,079 do. Odds are good they do nothing. If it's two point five, 283 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,559 I can't see if they do anything. No, you know, now that's 284 00:19:42,559 --> 00:19:48,119 what's interestingly, that's what's expected. So if it comes out and it's dropped 285 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,720 from four and a half to three, the chance of market sells off, 286 00:19:52,279 --> 00:19:56,480 So we'll see. I heard a theater. Oh, the commentator misspoke. 287 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,240 He meant four point five, because I think in May it was four point 288 00:20:00,319 --> 00:20:03,400 seven or four point eight, so I think only even at four point five, 289 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,000 What do you mean two point five? How does it go from five 290 00:20:07,039 --> 00:20:11,240 almost five to two point five in one month? It seems unlikely. I 291 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,359 would love to see it, but that's what they've talked about. I heard 292 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,839 that from multiple sources all during the week, the two point five, And 293 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,759 like I say, first time I heard it, I thought that the commentator 294 00:20:21,799 --> 00:20:25,160 had misspoke. If it does drop that much, then you start to really 295 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:29,559 think about deflation right now, because then they're not that far away. No. 296 00:20:29,799 --> 00:20:32,160 I mean, their goal was two percent inflation, and if there are 297 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:33,920 two and a half, that's that's pretty close. But that's what people forget 298 00:20:34,039 --> 00:20:38,759 is their goals supercent, not above or below, because when you get deflation, 299 00:20:38,839 --> 00:20:42,279 that's a really bad Yeah, that's horrible, and we're always scared of 300 00:20:42,279 --> 00:20:47,480 inflation, which rightfully so, but deflation is also really bad for an economy 301 00:20:47,519 --> 00:20:51,079 that's based on debt, right, and it's all based on debt. So 302 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:56,319 we've already seen the default problems all across the industries, So that could be 303 00:20:56,319 --> 00:21:00,440 another problem if we really do continuously fault into deflation. Now, you've got 304 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,759 to have some level of inflation at the free, healthy economy, right, 305 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,839 there has to be some level of inflation. It just doesn't need to be 306 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:12,359 nine percent, right, So those two calendar items will dictate a lot of 307 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:18,160 market action next week. Oil OPEC voted to leave production at current levels, 308 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,720 which is kind of what we expected. We said last week it's unlikely with 309 00:21:22,039 --> 00:21:26,039 prices down as much as they are, that they're going to agree to cut 310 00:21:26,079 --> 00:21:30,319 production, but the Saudi Arabians did say that, in fact, they're gonna 311 00:21:30,799 --> 00:21:34,720 cut a million barrels a day. Well, they had bigger business moves on 312 00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:41,000 their hands, yeah, the PGA, right, Yeah, they really made 313 00:21:41,039 --> 00:21:42,079 that good. I don't know if it's a good or bad move, but 314 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:49,039 they merged with PGA to live. Very impressive in my opinion that the Saudis 315 00:21:49,039 --> 00:21:52,400 were able to get that deal. Oh my goodness, yes, and be 316 00:21:52,519 --> 00:21:53,920 dealing Greenberg, mister golf is with us. Yeah, what do you think 317 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,960 about that? But yeah, with the deal, I think that's a terrible 318 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:03,599 deal. And I think the PGA, the commissioner of it, he just 319 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,400 went behind everybody's back. They did a secretively him and the guy that runs 320 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,039 the Saudia Investment Fund. Nobody knew about to except them too, until the 321 00:22:11,039 --> 00:22:14,480 way PGA players found out was the next morning on Twitter like everybody else. 322 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,799 Then that'd be voted on by any boarded directors or anything the latterly and he 323 00:22:18,839 --> 00:22:22,880 made the deal. And the whole thing is why everybody's mad about it is 324 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,680 because for a year he touted the loyalty of the guys that stayed with the 325 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,640 PGA that turned down the huge contracts, like Hadeki Matsuyama was offered like three 326 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,279 four hundred million dollars to go over and he turned it down because he wanted 327 00:22:33,279 --> 00:22:37,640 to stay with the PGA. Multiple guys on hundred plus million dollars contracts they 328 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,240 turned it down saying because if they went with live. They were never gonna 329 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,799 be able to play on the PGA again, is what the cover said. 330 00:22:44,839 --> 00:22:47,319 That's what he said last year. So they're like, well, I want 331 00:22:47,319 --> 00:22:48,279 to play on the PGA. I like the tradition of it. I like 332 00:22:48,319 --> 00:22:52,599 all this majors. At that point, we're up in there too, so 333 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,319 they're like, I want to play in it. And then a year or 334 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,559 later they do this, so now it's just a slap in the face to 335 00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:00,400 them. It's just like they just use him as a pawn. And the 336 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,960 guy was like, we don't want their dirty money because of whatever they do 337 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,960 with their money over there, that's always a big if. And they took 338 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,480 the money. Well here they had the Pashaw was accusing the Saudis. Part 339 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:17,559 of me was accusing the as Saudis of using astronomical sums of money to cover 340 00:23:17,839 --> 00:23:21,599 Saudi atrocities. Well yeah, I mean the size of stow their money at 341 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,000 everything. That's now, let's get together, right. That's why everybody's pissed 342 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,440 off, and even the commissioners like, if I'm looked at as a hypocrite, 343 00:23:27,519 --> 00:23:30,960 I get it. And it's like yeah, because you are, well 344 00:23:30,039 --> 00:23:33,039 yeah, you're you're saying you hate everybody over there, and now all a 345 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,880 sudden, your partners and you make the PGA players who decided to stay with 346 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,599 you out of loyalty look like idiots. And the guys that took hundreds of 347 00:23:40,599 --> 00:23:44,240 millions of dollars and didn't care about about any of this, they all make 348 00:23:44,279 --> 00:23:48,359 out like bandage exactly. It just I don't know how that works out. 349 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:52,839 We have a guest coming on in our second hour. We've been talking a 350 00:23:52,839 --> 00:23:59,119 lot about solar and about electric cars on this show, but not a lot 351 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:00,640 of us know a lot about so we're lunch the cars. Other than we 352 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,880 have opinions. We've got a guy coming on that it really knows this stuff 353 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,440 inside and out. And he said, you'd rather do a white reader, 354 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:12,480 white paper about this stuff than watching Netflix. So m he's a he's a 355 00:24:12,519 --> 00:24:15,920 serious, serious guy about this and I'm looking forward to talking to him in 356 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,480 the second hour. We appreciate you joining us. We've got Todd, We've 357 00:24:19,519 --> 00:24:22,799 got Dylan, we've got Dave. We'll be back right after this break. 358 00:24:23,079 --> 00:24:37,519 Thanks again. Say it's all an welcome back to the Money Matters Show. 359 00:24:37,559 --> 00:24:41,200 My name's Toddlick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg and Dave Sherwood. Again, 360 00:24:41,559 --> 00:24:45,720 quiet week because next week is not. It's gonna be a busy one. 361 00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:49,759 We have CPI Tuesday, Federal Reserve Wednesday, and then retail sales on Thursday. 362 00:24:49,839 --> 00:24:53,759 So it's gonna be a full of economic data. We're really gonna see 363 00:24:53,759 --> 00:24:56,519 what's going to happen. But did you see some of the short squeezes that 364 00:24:56,599 --> 00:25:02,240 happened this week, maybe like Carbona? Yeah, that was the Carbona thing 365 00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:06,359 is I think it's just a meme stock, don't you at this point or 366 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,079 everything? It seems like it. And and it looks like there's some reports 367 00:25:08,079 --> 00:25:11,000 that they're going to try to sell some of that equity while it's higher, 368 00:25:11,039 --> 00:25:15,119 wouldn't you? Why? Why not? Right? Yeah? Some other companies 369 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,119 that actually want to tell what happened on Carbona. It first of all, 370 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,759 it was almost on the edge of bankruptcy, almost zero, right, Yeah, 371 00:25:22,799 --> 00:25:25,640 And all of a sudden it looks like they're going to return to profitability. 372 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:30,599 And the stock was up fifty percent on Thursday. It's nearly quadrupled in 373 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,160 the last thirty days. So if they're really smart, they do a big 374 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:37,759 stock offering and pay off all their debt and they actually might make it right, 375 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:42,200 right, I mean it's other companies experienced it as well, up starting 376 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:47,279 in the firms, all nice pops, and you know, it's going to 377 00:25:47,319 --> 00:25:51,599 be interesting how they continue to see. DocuSign also said that they're actually coming 378 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:55,160 back with real growth, so interesting to see that. It seems like a 379 00:25:55,200 --> 00:26:00,920 great company, really low expenses, unless they just are paying too many employees. 380 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:06,559 I mean everyone does DocuSign or you know, those electronic documents and Zoom 381 00:26:06,599 --> 00:26:11,359 and all of those pandemic garlanes they got cobbed and maybe they maybe there really 382 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,799 is a reason to have them. Yeah, But the issue with document is 383 00:26:14,799 --> 00:26:18,240 there's a lot of competition now with the signing companies, Like I know, 384 00:26:18,839 --> 00:26:21,960 a bunch of different companies use different ones, so it's not just DocuSign, 385 00:26:22,079 --> 00:26:27,000 Like Zoom seems to be the main online chat thing like that from what I 386 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,200 know, I mean, you got Teams and stuff with Microsoft. But other 387 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,559 than that, as Zoom, I know, DocuSign has got a lot of 388 00:26:32,599 --> 00:26:34,720 competition that's come up in the last few years. Jim has got a little 389 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,000 competition too, I'm Microsoft, right, yeah, I think teams is really 390 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,960 the only one though, you know, one company I think it is very 391 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,880 similar to that its Salesforce, because Salesforce is a CRM, it's a client 392 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:49,000 relationship database, and you know, there's a lot of those out there, 393 00:26:49,079 --> 00:26:52,759 and a lot of companies even make their own internal ones. So I think 394 00:26:52,759 --> 00:26:59,519 there is definitely some of those technologies they have a ceiling on on scaling because 395 00:26:59,559 --> 00:27:04,839 of of just the industries that they're selling to. Its interesting salesforce. Dot 396 00:27:04,839 --> 00:27:11,000 Com was the worst performing Dallas stock last year, and it's the best performing 397 00:27:11,079 --> 00:27:14,000 doallstock this year. It had a rough week this week, but Dylan, 398 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:18,680 you just you've got some numbers from May. Yeah, and the dogs of 399 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,079 the doubt if you guys have ever heard that, Absolutely it's the worst performing 400 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,599 stocks the year before tend to be the best performing stocks the next year. 401 00:27:25,599 --> 00:27:27,960 And that's holding true with CRM. They were terrible last year. This year 402 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,359 they're up sixty nine percent sixteen year to day. May they were a fifteen 403 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:37,680 percent alone. So even though there's a bunch of the CRMs out there, 404 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,559 Salesforce is killing it this year at least. But then you got and then 405 00:27:41,799 --> 00:27:45,960 obviously it's the tech Microsoft and the thirty doll stock. These are the thirty 406 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,720 dolls stocks. O. Sorry, these are the top three thirty dollas stocks 407 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,440 for twenty twenty three. Yeah, CRM Salesforce, and then number two is 408 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,519 Microsoft. Number three is Apple, and they didn't have a good year last 409 00:27:56,599 --> 00:27:59,279 year either. Apple they were now Apple really was the middle of the pack 410 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:00,400 question. Yeah, it was kind of dead and then it just dropped two 411 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,960 and then Microsoft didn't have a great year, and they're up thirty eight percent. 412 00:28:04,039 --> 00:28:08,720 Microsoft and Apple's up thirty seven percent. And then Intel, which is 413 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,319 surprising because usually it doesn't do much, is up twenty one percent for the 414 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,480 year. It had a good month last month too, is up six percent. 415 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,759 So the tech and we've been talking about it too, I mean tech. 416 00:28:18,839 --> 00:28:21,839 There's a few tech companies that have really been driving this market. And 417 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:25,119 that's why we're always playing the cautious side for the last few months, because 418 00:28:25,519 --> 00:28:27,880 if you see a twenty percent pullback and say an Apple, Microsoft, then 419 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:33,200 Nvidio, those stocks, the whole market could just pull back. You can 420 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,279 see it because I mean the SMP five hundred as it is up twelve percent 421 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,759 year to date, but the equal weight is up three percent. What's that? 422 00:28:38,839 --> 00:28:42,680 What's at the bottom of that list. The bottom is three M is 423 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:48,960 the very bottom. And then you got h w BA Walgreens. Yeah, 424 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,240 it's Alliance, and then you got Chevron, right and see that's why they 425 00:28:52,319 --> 00:28:56,599 equal weighted is doing so poorly. Yep. The equate is gonna have The 426 00:28:56,599 --> 00:29:00,799 oil stocks are all beat up, the drug stocks are all beat up. 427 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,519 Three AM poort three am. Can't I say poor three am can't even get 428 00:29:04,519 --> 00:29:07,680 out of their own way. For the last about two years now, it 429 00:29:07,839 --> 00:29:10,319 was near the bottom of the list last year well, and speaking of the 430 00:29:10,359 --> 00:29:11,880 dogs of the doubt, Chevron was at the top all of last year. 431 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,160 First they were absolutely bottom. Yeah, and it was third from the bottom 432 00:29:15,279 --> 00:29:18,559 right now, third from the bottom, yep. And then you got Caterpillars 433 00:29:18,559 --> 00:29:21,240 down there, j and j Amgen. A lot of the value stocks are 434 00:29:21,279 --> 00:29:22,160 down there. But if you look at if you look at it the way 435 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:26,160 we're looking at it on a one through thirty list right now, for a 436 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,000 year to date, it's really about half is up and half is down. 437 00:29:29,519 --> 00:29:32,960 That's what it looks like. We should explain to why they Equated is not 438 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,319 up as much as yeah, and so the dogs of the doubt. It 439 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,319 also went to the dogs of the NAZ the NASDAC, right, NASDAK was 440 00:29:41,319 --> 00:29:44,920 the worst performing index and now it's by far the best performing index. It's 441 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,720 it's the catrarian trade is going very well for you in twenty twenty three. 442 00:29:48,839 --> 00:29:51,960 Yeah, exactly. NASDAC was down thirty three percent during twenty twenty two and 443 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:56,680 now it's up twenty seven percent. The NASDAC will lead up and down always, 444 00:29:56,799 --> 00:30:00,720 but it's the same idea well, Russell two thousand, Russell two thousand 445 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,599 can have a say on that, because we're doing well. Tech is the 446 00:30:04,599 --> 00:30:08,359 growth engine of the market. It is forever. If growth is slowing, 447 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,160 tech is slowing. Yeah, but I get what you're saying with the Russell 448 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,480 two thousand is that the small caps can run, so if they do. 449 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,960 But this year we're seeing that it is the NASDAC the tech companies are. 450 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,640 But it also then again, it's just a handful of them that are really 451 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,279 running. I mean, and Video has been running this market a lot. 452 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,400 I want to talk a little bit about Apple because their product that they released 453 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,279 on Monday, the Vision Pro. I think that's something that can be very 454 00:30:30,359 --> 00:30:34,319 interesting in the next five years. It's their new it's like the first new 455 00:30:34,319 --> 00:30:37,880 product they've released in two thousand and fourteen to watch. Yeah, and that 456 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,279 was fourteen now, yeah, fourteen, twenty fourteen for the Watch for the 457 00:30:41,319 --> 00:30:44,799 Apple Watch. Double check that. But that, man, I heard the 458 00:30:44,799 --> 00:30:47,839 same thing. Dylan's first. It's their first new product in like eight or 459 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:49,839 nine years now. That really it's hard to believe it, but I guess 460 00:30:51,039 --> 00:30:55,039 I've had to watch for three or four years. It's possible. Yeah. 461 00:30:55,079 --> 00:30:56,920 I think. Also, we hear a lot of like rumors out of Apple, 462 00:30:57,119 --> 00:31:00,039 like that Apple car. It's like, what's not really a product yet, 463 00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:04,000 it's just like a rumor. Yeah, twenty fifteen, the Apple Watch 464 00:31:04,079 --> 00:31:07,759 came out. Wow, that's amazing. But the reason I like the vision 465 00:31:07,759 --> 00:31:14,440 pros so much is it's augmented reality, not just virtual reality. And I 466 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,880 don't think it's there yet. The technology isn't there yet because it's still a 467 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:22,720 headset, and I think that's it's just burdensome to have that on your head. 468 00:31:22,799 --> 00:31:25,799 Eventually, if they can make it into just a sunglasses, right, 469 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:30,119 or just glasses and you're able to navigate because this vision pro you navigate with 470 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,079 your eyes. You you you know, you you're doing everything with your eyes, 471 00:31:33,119 --> 00:31:37,079 your hands and that's it. You can FaceTime people. You it's like 472 00:31:37,119 --> 00:31:41,599 having a phone. I mean really, eventually the smartphone is going to be 473 00:31:41,599 --> 00:31:45,400 transitioned into just glasses. Well like if you got if anybody out there has 474 00:31:45,799 --> 00:31:48,440 the Apple car Play on their in their cars, that's what it looks like 475 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,240 on there. And then you but you get your regular messages that look like 476 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,319 your iPhone. And then it's crazy how you can just pinch. You pinch 477 00:31:56,359 --> 00:31:59,559 with your hands. There's no you don't have joysticks or anything like you do 478 00:31:59,559 --> 00:32:01,480 with the list is as you pinch with your fingers, you do that like 479 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:05,160 you move them. You can zoom in with things with your hands. You 480 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,599 can have like one hundred inch TV just sitting on your couch with the goggles. 481 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:13,160 But they are huge. So if you can make them a normal glasses 482 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,400 size and the yeah they're gonna get a lot more popular, maybe eventually contact 483 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:20,440 size. I mean yeah, the things that it sounds science fiction, but 484 00:32:20,599 --> 00:32:22,240 you know, twenty years ago everything sounds science fiction. You see it now, 485 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,799 it looks like Iron Man's what he sees, right, how he sees 486 00:32:25,799 --> 00:32:29,680 all that stuff with like on one side he has all the map and everything. 487 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,119 I just think there's so much growth that can come out of that for 488 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:36,400 Apple, because right now everyone has a smartphone. It's like, well, 489 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,880 how many people need a new smartphone? This product would change everything. Well, 490 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,880 it's interesting too that they said. So when they brought when they released, 491 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:46,200 they had this whole day of showing this, and then they showed the 492 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:50,720 price, and they got everybody's reaction in the crowd, and everybody gas because 493 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:55,319 it's thirty four ninety nine three five hundred dollars pretty much. And everybody's reaction 494 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,559 they gasp, like in shock that it's so expensive. So now it's gonna 495 00:32:59,559 --> 00:33:01,599 be interesting this Apple going to keep that price when they eventually released it next 496 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,000 year, or they gonna drop it, and everybody's gonna be really happy that 497 00:33:06,039 --> 00:33:08,480 it's twenty five hundred dollars a piece rather than thirty five hundred because that's the 498 00:33:08,559 --> 00:33:12,799 original price. So they think they pulled it back and then they're gonna want 499 00:33:12,799 --> 00:33:14,839 to buy it even more, and they're gonna sell you the more. I 500 00:33:14,839 --> 00:33:20,000 think it's gonna take three years before it comes really comes about into full scaling, 501 00:33:20,119 --> 00:33:22,319 but I just think it's a great idea. It's a I listened to 502 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,480 a couple of analysts talking about it, and then they said, the difference 503 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:32,440 between the Apple headset and the Meta headset is is night and day. It's 504 00:33:32,519 --> 00:33:37,680 it's it's it's like high definition TV versus regular TV. They said that the 505 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:42,599 Apple headset was really sharp, really crisp to look at Dylan. Have you 506 00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,279 used it? Yeah? No, you sound like you've used You've seen the 507 00:33:45,359 --> 00:33:47,920 video. You saw the video. Yeah, nobody's used it. They don't 508 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,519 have it out there. I think CNBC had like a prototype they played with. 509 00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,039 Yeah, yeah, but like what we saw was like the launch day, 510 00:33:55,039 --> 00:33:58,839 like when Steve Jobs showed what the iPhone does. That's what it was. 511 00:33:58,839 --> 00:34:01,119 That's what you're watching. I think commercial of like somebody using it and 512 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:05,359 showing how how to use your fingers and zoom in. When is it going 513 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,440 to be available to you next year? Next not till next year, until 514 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:12,760 next year. It had put pushed the stock to a new all time high. 515 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,599 Oh if you're hitting an all time high, the largest company in the 516 00:34:15,599 --> 00:34:19,760 world and an all time high, yeah, man, that's not that's not 517 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,280 too bad. Three almost three trillion dollars market cap, and and it is 518 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:29,079 in every single in a major index. I thinks in the Dow, it's 519 00:34:29,119 --> 00:34:31,639 in the SP five hundred, it's in the NASDAC. I think Dylan said 520 00:34:31,679 --> 00:34:37,800 that it's bigger than almost like six of the G sevens. Yeah, like 521 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:42,800 it's market cap. It's market cap larger than the GDP of what was up 522 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,760 year to date year to data's up thirty seven percent as a van of May. 523 00:34:46,119 --> 00:34:49,960 It was up from there, right, Oh yeah, it's up more 524 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,280 now, it's up more than forty percent. So if you have the largest 525 00:34:52,880 --> 00:35:00,159 company in the world that is in every major index up forty percent of the 526 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:04,800 year, it's gonna skew the indexes, don't you think. I mean, 527 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,880 it's like our our tax receipts not being where they should be when fifteen percent 528 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:13,639 of the country doesn't have to file until October fifteenth. Makes sense. Apple's 529 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:19,440 market cap is bigger than Canada's GDP. Italy's bigger than Canada's GDP. Yeah, 530 00:35:19,639 --> 00:35:22,280 and this is when they had evaluation to two point six trillion. Oh, 531 00:35:22,639 --> 00:35:25,119 Italy, South Korea, Russia, Brazil and a whole host of others. 532 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:30,000 It's insane. They've they've done it. They've done a great job, 533 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:35,840 great job managing in a company and uh with the products and the loyalty and 534 00:35:36,039 --> 00:35:39,320 at it's a special company and it's uh. Tim Cook has done a great 535 00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,880 job stepping in and taken over. Give him all the credit in the world. 536 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,159 Um, we'll be back after this break again, looking forward to the 537 00:35:46,159 --> 00:35:52,960 second hour and where have Ron Lan's coming in to educate us on solar and 538 00:35:52,159 --> 00:35:55,719 on evs. Looking forward to that. We'll be back right after this break. 539 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:06,079 Say it's a welcome back. You're listening to the Money Matter Show. 540 00:36:06,119 --> 00:36:09,159 I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Dave Sherwood and Todd Glick. Dean is 541 00:36:09,199 --> 00:36:14,760 off for the month. Is over overseas, but not just just fun. 542 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,800 He's got business for the first week. For the first week, it's OURBC, 543 00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:22,119 who's our custodian. They always take the bigger firms and every other year 544 00:36:22,119 --> 00:36:24,079 they take them to a nice out of the country destination. This year they 545 00:36:24,159 --> 00:36:28,400 chose Ireland, so they get to enjoy that and then they're going all over 546 00:36:28,519 --> 00:36:30,119 year for a couple of weeks. He's able to spend some time with the 547 00:36:30,159 --> 00:36:36,400 executives at RBC and IT people at RBC and give them our ideas. You 548 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,119 can get ideas from them, and yeah, you know that's why we've stayed 549 00:36:39,119 --> 00:36:42,960 with RBC for thirty five years. The whole sense we've been a firm is 550 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,039 because of the loyalty they have and that we have to them. We're gonna 551 00:36:45,079 --> 00:36:49,480 be loyal because they just always We're not the biggest firm they have as an 552 00:36:49,519 --> 00:36:52,880 independent firm, but they treat us the same, and so you're gonna stay 553 00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,840 with people like that. They're good people. Yeah, yeah again, and 554 00:36:55,199 --> 00:37:00,760 that relationship that Dean has built gives us a real if we have an issue, 555 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:05,320 if we have a problem, we have something that needs to be fixed, 556 00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,840 we can get it fixed. Yeah. And they really and I mean 557 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,559 obvious is really up in their game too, in the sense of the financial 558 00:37:09,559 --> 00:37:14,119 plan that they really released this past year. We've been using a lot with 559 00:37:14,199 --> 00:37:16,760 clients and this show, and it's more comprehensive than the whole plan we were 560 00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:20,880 using the program we're using this new one. It's easy to use, this 561 00:37:21,039 --> 00:37:24,599 user friendly, and it really shows you the intricacies of your financial plan and 562 00:37:24,679 --> 00:37:30,280 how every little thing could impact your outlook through retirement and everything like that. 563 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:35,199 So it's great and we offer that free, complimentary everything if you just if 564 00:37:35,199 --> 00:37:37,119 you guys are interested, you should give us a call. It's a very 565 00:37:37,159 --> 00:37:39,199 good program we use and people seem to find a lot of use out of 566 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:44,760 it. And then both talking about going back to the different things we talked 567 00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,159 about the dogs of the the DOO. Last year, fixed income, the 568 00:37:47,199 --> 00:37:52,480 fixed income ets and mutual funds that we follow, the majority were down, 569 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,920 if not all of them at times. Yeah, and then this year they're 570 00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:59,639 set, they're reversed. Everyone is up except one of them. They're all 571 00:37:59,639 --> 00:38:02,400 positive, not a ton, but it's fixed income. We got just one 572 00:38:02,519 --> 00:38:05,800 is up five percent, and we would you say, the average is of 573 00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,639 the short term fixed in about two percent, and you've got the equal weighted 574 00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:13,760 SMP five hundred up two point eight. Ye. So if you had a 575 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:17,159 balanced account that was sixty percent equities and forty percent fixed income, your fixed 576 00:38:17,199 --> 00:38:22,039 income was predominantly short term, which which would makes sense with rising rates, 577 00:38:22,079 --> 00:38:28,360 and your equities are predominantly equal weighted SMP five hundred, which makes sense because 578 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:32,440 you don't want to have seven stocks running an equal weighted a balanced portfolio, 579 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:37,599 then you would expect for the year to be up somewhere around two point four 580 00:38:37,679 --> 00:38:43,320 two point five as of as of today. Yeah, And that's sometimes the 581 00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,880 issue we run into is people think they should be in line with the SMP. 582 00:38:46,199 --> 00:38:49,920 Like the regular SMP five hundred right now is up a point nine percent 583 00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,760 for the year. The majority of people will have more of a balanced account. 584 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:57,519 It's just especially if you're retired or approaching retirement, you're gonna have that. 585 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,519 You very rarely have a more aggressive account because you're you're transitioning into a 586 00:39:00,519 --> 00:39:06,239 different phase of life. But the issue comes when they think they should be 587 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,119 up eight point nine percent for the year and they're up four percent. If 588 00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:14,199 actually as as a Friday's closed, its twelve twelve percent, well that's the 589 00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:15,800 end of you. You know, you're looking at the end of Maakers. 590 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,880 You got mayor force in front of you is up. Yeah, that makes 591 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:22,400 sense, But you're right exactly, and they're not going to be in line 592 00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,679 with SMP because that's just really aggressive risk tolerance, and that just isn't what's 593 00:39:25,679 --> 00:39:30,079 going to happen when you're approaching retirement. When you're in retirement, because you're 594 00:39:30,079 --> 00:39:32,440 not you're not accumulating money anymore. You're trying to preserve it more so and 595 00:39:32,639 --> 00:39:35,920 take income from it. So it's just different. But you can't have that 596 00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,920 expectation of wanting to be in line with the SMP five hundred, because last 597 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,360 year, if you just we're all in SMP five hundred, you're down twenty 598 00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,480 two percent. Your account would have been someone in their twenties or thirties. 599 00:39:45,519 --> 00:39:50,360 You should be one hundred percent in the SMP five exact hundred percent because you 600 00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,960 have time for it to recover. And the one thing every market decline in 601 00:39:54,039 --> 00:39:58,920 history has in common is a new high, all time high at some point, 602 00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:01,199 don't know when. It has always happened, always one hundred percent of 603 00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:06,079 the time. It's like we're talking about the death Feeling debate. Seventy eight 604 00:40:06,079 --> 00:40:08,039 out of seventy eight, So we like those odds. We thought there might 605 00:40:08,079 --> 00:40:10,960 be as much as one hundred percent chance that they do it again. And 606 00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,000 guess what I do want to qualif seventy nine out of seventy nine, what 607 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:16,840 do we say, I just want to qualify your statement. Every twenty and 608 00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:22,800 thirty year old with a retirement investments should be maybe there are twenty and thirty 609 00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:24,960 year olds that maybe investing in the market who could be saving for a house, 610 00:40:25,039 --> 00:40:30,440 which more intermediate short term. Different time horizons will dictate different investment philosophies. 611 00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:34,440 But if you have a forty year plus time horizon, that's when one 612 00:40:34,519 --> 00:40:37,960 hundred percent SMP would make a lot more. That's a reasonable point. That's 613 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:45,039 a reasonable clarification because you can have a year like last last year where the 614 00:40:45,119 --> 00:40:47,519 SMP goes down twenty percent, and if you were saving for a house and 615 00:40:47,639 --> 00:40:51,239 you just found the house you want, you've got twenty percent less money. 616 00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,440 Not a good idea. So you're a very good clarification time thing. Yeah, 617 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,880 we always and we suely just like in the sense of that, like 618 00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,000 if you're looking to use that money with any year two, like for a 619 00:41:00,039 --> 00:41:04,239 down payment a house or a new car, don't put in the market because 620 00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,719 there is uncertainty in the markets. And that's where the financial plan comes into 621 00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,440 play, exactly right. I mean, that's where you are laying out what 622 00:41:09,519 --> 00:41:13,760 are your goals, what are your objectives, what are we saving four and 623 00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,199 then what is your risk? Then you put those two together. That's how 624 00:41:16,199 --> 00:41:20,840 we invest, right, And that's that's why it's very important to actually develop 625 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:22,760 a financial plan, otherwise you just kind of seat of the pants. Right. 626 00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:28,480 Once you develop your initial financial plan, is a lot easier to tinker 627 00:41:28,519 --> 00:41:30,719 with it. You have the base, and then you can mess with it 628 00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:35,039 going forward, right, And that's why it's important to get the base, 629 00:41:35,119 --> 00:41:38,639 get the first one done. Yeah, and you can when when accounts come 630 00:41:38,679 --> 00:41:43,199 to us for us to review, you can tell which ones are seat of 631 00:41:43,199 --> 00:41:45,960 the pants and which ones have a plan. You really can. Yeah, 632 00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:50,199 this this hodge podge of things that are in there, It's like, how 633 00:41:50,199 --> 00:41:54,559 did this happen? I don't know what was their plan here? Don't know 634 00:41:55,199 --> 00:42:00,360 what was there thinking regarding this, don't know. And so once you guys 635 00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:05,880 have gone through the plan, they'll know exactly how to answer those questions exactly. 636 00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:08,280 And that's why we do it. You had a couple more may reforce 637 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,719 there or some reason. Yeah, we got some better numbers over here too. 638 00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:14,920 We got the end of May. We got technology is running so we 639 00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:19,960 follow these SMP sectors the XLK it's technology. These are the eleven sectors in 640 00:42:20,039 --> 00:42:22,920 the SMP five hundred. Yep, you got technology, Communications, financial, 641 00:42:23,039 --> 00:42:27,480 utility, stuff like that. Technology is running away with it. It's up 642 00:42:27,519 --> 00:42:30,599 thirty two percent, but communications is up thirty percent for the year. We 643 00:42:30,679 --> 00:42:36,039 know why because communications is skewed. It has Facebook in it, Yeah, 644 00:42:36,159 --> 00:42:39,800 I meta in it. It's not it's not communications. It's not zon a, 645 00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:43,280 AT and T or it would be at the bottom of the list. 646 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,880 So it's like a technology in a sense, isn't it. I mean it's 647 00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:47,400 almost one. You just one of the reason it's not up thirty two percent, 648 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:50,760 it's only up thirty it is because it has AT and T and all 649 00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,920 in it as well. Could be could be why the the SMP five hundred 650 00:42:54,079 --> 00:43:00,480 is up twelve percent because the communications sector is simply technology times two. Consumer 651 00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:06,199 discretion areas up eighteen percent for the year as a major discretion that is the 652 00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:08,559 third highest one, and that's the only other one in positive territory. The 653 00:43:08,679 --> 00:43:13,559 next closest is industrials and is negative one percent for the year. Now what's 654 00:43:13,599 --> 00:43:22,920 that tell you? How how this small narrow group of stocks is driving this 655 00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,280 thing to levels that we have not seen because, for instance, you have 656 00:43:25,559 --> 00:43:30,400 here everything that's a negative territory is industrials, real estate, consumer staples, 657 00:43:30,519 --> 00:43:35,760 materials, healthcare, financials, utilities, and energy, which killed it last 658 00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:39,079 year. Obviously, you can make a huge argument those top three technology communications 659 00:43:39,119 --> 00:43:45,119 can be consumer discretionary are probably the most volatile parts of the essay. Right, 660 00:43:45,199 --> 00:43:47,159 So you got out of an out of eleven sectors, you have seven 661 00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:52,639 of them that were down, only three up, only three or up, 662 00:43:52,679 --> 00:43:55,960 and they're eight big eighteen percent, thirty percent and thirty two percent and the 663 00:43:57,079 --> 00:43:59,639 next and then eight of them or nine of them are sorry, eight of 664 00:43:59,639 --> 00:44:04,280 them are negative territory. So those three were were It's it's almost like you've 665 00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,679 got a room with eleven people in them right on. One guy is seven 666 00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:12,400 foot two, you know, and so the average, you know, is 667 00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,119 it really is very misleading. Then that's why we've been cautious. That's why 668 00:44:16,159 --> 00:44:22,119 we continue to say stick with your plan, don't get crazy here. Yeah, 669 00:44:22,159 --> 00:44:25,400 it's all people are starting to lose the fear. But it's everything showing 670 00:44:25,519 --> 00:44:30,960 us that it shouldn't be where it is earlier. You're missing out right now. 671 00:44:30,039 --> 00:44:35,559 Yeah, that the VIX, the fear index is will always since February 672 00:44:35,559 --> 00:44:38,000 of twenty twenty. Well, the fact that consumer discretionary is up eighteen percent. 673 00:44:38,119 --> 00:44:42,199 People are scared for discretionaire. Yeah, spending money again where you can 674 00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,199 spend it wherever you want. So there's and our credit card debt is hitting 675 00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,599 record highs, right, so they're still spending, but they ain't painting it 676 00:44:47,599 --> 00:44:51,239 back because everything's more expensive right now. I will say though, Gas and 677 00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,440 Tucson has dropped, So I think are the listener that was telling us the 678 00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:58,960 reason why behind everything. I think he was right because now they're done doing 679 00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:02,119 their switch over summer and it's dropped like seventy cents. It was four o 680 00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,960 nine this morning by my house, but it ought to be three o nine. 681 00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:07,440 I know, I'm just saying it was four eighty for weeks. Maybe 682 00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:12,760 the word spreading that we're onto him. Yeah, it could be right. 683 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,480 They listened to the money. Hey, the Money Matters show has been talking 684 00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,719 about you. I think you can't hide it all listeners can thank us. 685 00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:22,599 You can't get away with it much longer. So you're welcome. We're happy 686 00:45:22,599 --> 00:45:27,039 to We're happy to do this. The inversion going on the yield curve still 687 00:45:27,079 --> 00:45:30,519 point eight. It moves this week, right, didn't move. This is 688 00:45:30,519 --> 00:45:35,119 the difference between the ten year treasury and the two year treasury. Again, 689 00:45:35,159 --> 00:45:38,800 you'd expect the ten year treasury yield to be higher and it's not. It's 690 00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:44,079 inverted, and that's typically the sign of a pending recession. I wonder I 691 00:45:44,079 --> 00:45:46,199 got to look this up next week. What's the longest the yield kurds been 692 00:45:46,199 --> 00:45:50,960 inverted for ever in history? Right? We might be working on it. 693 00:45:51,119 --> 00:45:53,000 It's been a year, right, exactly, it's been inverted for a year, 694 00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:57,840 and it generally a recession follows within three to six months. It's been 695 00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,880 a year and then some And today I heard somebody talking about I think was 696 00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:06,920 Kramer was talking about the yield curve was going to get back to normal. 697 00:46:07,679 --> 00:46:10,079 Um, that we've avoided recession. That's a soft landing has happened, and 698 00:46:10,679 --> 00:46:15,440 here we go. Is a Kramer curse still alive? Though? Or I 699 00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:20,119 know I'm gonna bet on the inverse Cramer etf on that one. He makes 700 00:46:20,119 --> 00:46:22,639 a lot of good calls, but he also has some clinkers as anyone does, 701 00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,559 as anyone does. Yeah, if you if you want a business where 702 00:46:25,559 --> 00:46:30,039 you're never gonna be wrong, this isn't it. And he's in that twenty 703 00:46:30,039 --> 00:46:34,480 four news type of environment where he has to make, you know, entertainment. 704 00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,199 Yeah, you have to have an idea or two every day. And 705 00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,719 guess what, there isn't an idea or two every day. Exactly. It's 706 00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:45,639 kind of like news. There is not breaking news every hour of every day, 707 00:46:45,079 --> 00:46:51,199 despite what you're seeing on TV and some of the sometimes you'll have a 708 00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,440 breaking news that will be breaking news every hour for a day and a half, 709 00:46:55,599 --> 00:47:00,159 you know, and I'll get you see the breaking news banner and every 710 00:47:00,199 --> 00:47:04,000 news, same breaking news. Yeah. Wait and wait a second. This 711 00:47:04,159 --> 00:47:07,000 is especially on CNN, it's always a Trump indictment. You know, it's 712 00:47:07,039 --> 00:47:09,480 a breaking news. So um again, we'll be back after the break. 713 00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:15,239 We've got Ron Lands here, who's going to help us with uh evs. 714 00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,079 I'm gonna help us with solar and kind of uh. He stopped in one 715 00:47:19,159 --> 00:47:21,719 day not too long ago, and he said, a long time listener to 716 00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:22,880 the show, and he said, you know, I really got to talk 717 00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:27,239 to you about this. I gotta give you guys some facts and some figures. 718 00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:30,760 So it'll be fun to listen to Ron and to hear what he has 719 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,760 to say. He's been living in this world for many, many years, 720 00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:39,199 and um, we look forward to actually having some some facts and figures as 721 00:47:39,199 --> 00:47:44,880 opposed to what we're emotionally committed to. Right, yeah, exactly. We'll 722 00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:51,199 be back right after this break. Thanks for listening, Good morning, Welcome 723 00:47:51,199 --> 00:47:52,920 back to the Money Matters Show. This is Dave Sherwood. I'm here with 724 00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:57,119 Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Todd Glick. We have a special guest to 725 00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,800 join us. As we talk a lot on the show out Evs. We 726 00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:06,000 talk a lot on his show about solar and we have our opinions and we 727 00:48:06,039 --> 00:48:08,840 know what we've read. But we have someone joined in us this morning who's 728 00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:15,280 actually lived it and lived it for a while. Ron Lance is from Wisconsin, 729 00:48:15,079 --> 00:48:20,119 proud graduate of the University of Wisconsin. My wife of forty one years 730 00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:24,840 is from Wisconsin. I like things from Wisconsin. Apparently got his NBA from 731 00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:29,519 Marquette. Pointed out that he's a Republican, so he's not one of these 732 00:48:29,599 --> 00:48:34,480 Uh, this is coming to you from someone who has some common sense right 733 00:48:34,519 --> 00:48:40,119 down, an objective listener. Yeah, yeah, the bachelor's degree and chemical 734 00:48:40,159 --> 00:48:45,239 engineering. Spent thirty five years with sc Johnson. He was investigating solar for 735 00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:50,760 the company as far back as two thousand and four. He's on the energy 736 00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:55,039 he's a chairman of the Energy Task Force for Solar at Saddlebrook. And he 737 00:48:55,119 --> 00:49:00,199 said I'd rather read white papers on technology than watch Netflix. So that's where 738 00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:05,719 welcome Ron. Thank you here, come down. We do appreciate it. 739 00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,119 Well, there's two main issues we're talking about here. One is solar, 740 00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:13,119 one is electric vehicles. Let's talk a little bit about solar. First. 741 00:49:13,199 --> 00:49:15,360 Let me ask you one question right out of the shoot. What's the primary 742 00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:22,800 thing that drove you to your tesla and to solver. Well, Um, 743 00:49:23,079 --> 00:49:28,400 as you as you mentioned, I was doing this in a work environment, 744 00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:37,119 and back in the early two thousands, solar was like really expensive, so 745 00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,760 we did not do that. We did some we did wind turbines, we 746 00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:45,599 did um we captured landfill gas burning the boilers. So I'd always been interested 747 00:49:45,639 --> 00:49:52,960 in this, and of course I retired in uh in oh five, and 748 00:49:53,000 --> 00:50:00,159 then we had the you know what recession and I never sell Lowell, so 749 00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:05,800 I I, uh we cut expenses because that was a pretty big hit on 750 00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:10,079 the on the portfolio, as you guys know. And so I went back 751 00:50:10,079 --> 00:50:15,760 and I looked at solar because I knew the costs were coming down, and 752 00:50:15,079 --> 00:50:21,760 uh lo and behold, running running all the numbers out in uh in Panell 753 00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:28,039 County where we have Tricho, I could get a return of eleven percent. 754 00:50:29,599 --> 00:50:34,320 So um, I said, well, you know, I can I can 755 00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,840 use that for for cash flow you know, having having my investment pay for 756 00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:43,159 my electricity bill. So the primary region you went with the solar and with 757 00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:49,239 the electric car is because it's a good because money matters, like like like 758 00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:53,440 the name of your show, money does matter, it's all. And what 759 00:50:53,639 --> 00:51:00,480 I learned from uh So, see, Johnson's a private company and the owner 760 00:51:00,519 --> 00:51:07,079 at that time was very interested in environmental things, and he said, but 761 00:51:07,199 --> 00:51:10,840 they have to pay. He was just going to throw money at it. 762 00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:15,719 He said, figure out what you can do for projects that will have a 763 00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:21,039 return. So essentially I took that to my home. In other words, 764 00:51:21,039 --> 00:51:23,840 it has to make economic sense. Absolutely. One of the things that I've 765 00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:29,079 in talking looking at my neighbors, and my neighbors will buy a twenty or 766 00:51:29,119 --> 00:51:34,199 twenty five thousand dollars solar system and their electorcy builds one hundred and fifty bucks 767 00:51:34,199 --> 00:51:36,760 a month. I'm thinking, there's no way you're ever going to get whole. 768 00:51:37,039 --> 00:51:38,159 And when you came in to talk to me a few weeks back, 769 00:51:38,679 --> 00:51:44,480 you said, it's because they don't know what they're doing. They don't know 770 00:51:44,519 --> 00:51:47,719 what buying. Essentially, they don't know what they're buying. And the contractor 771 00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:54,159 will sell you a way oversized system because they can because he makes more money. 772 00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:57,960 They make more money when they do that. And you said to me 773 00:51:58,039 --> 00:52:00,639 when we talked to the first step, and I had never thought about this 774 00:52:01,039 --> 00:52:07,280 before you and talk to anyone about solar. You have to make your house 775 00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:09,800 interview efficient. Right, never crossed my mind to start with that. That 776 00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:14,960 that's also true. You you, well, that's the principle. You know, 777 00:52:15,039 --> 00:52:20,039 that's what engineers do. You you reduce your base load and then you 778 00:52:20,039 --> 00:52:23,599 you solve the problems to you know, for example, to go to solar, 779 00:52:24,199 --> 00:52:28,880 so you don't need as biggest system, so you put in LEDs. 780 00:52:30,159 --> 00:52:34,760 You probably have fluorescence up here. Yet you can save a ton of money 781 00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:40,280 by replacing those out with LED tubes. Uh. You can go with um 782 00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:49,559 high seer high sear air conditioning. For example, if your air conditioner is 783 00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:54,079 twenty years old, it's probably a SEAR ten if you buy a SEAR twenty 784 00:52:54,760 --> 00:53:00,440 because you have as much to operate. That's that's what the SEAR means and 785 00:53:00,519 --> 00:53:05,519 how you can compare the numbers from the old old to the new. I 786 00:53:05,679 --> 00:53:07,760 just replaced my ar condition in April, so I'm I'm kind of a seer 787 00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:14,159 expert. Very good. I've learned that term for the first time. So 788 00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:21,280 when when we did our second house up in Saddlebrook, the builder had a 789 00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:25,480 solar option, but it wasn't you couldn't customize it. He had small, 790 00:53:25,559 --> 00:53:30,599 medium, and large. So I ran the numbers. I said, I 791 00:53:30,679 --> 00:53:37,280 need twenty percent smaller than medium. He says, that'll be two thousand extra. 792 00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:45,599 I'll take medium. So go Through the first year or two we had 793 00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:55,000 it was very consistent. Right around three thousand kilo loot hours of surplus electricity 794 00:53:55,039 --> 00:54:00,519 that I'm selling back to Tricho for their wholesale. I said, this is 795 00:54:00,599 --> 00:54:05,920 not good. You know, I'm again two and a half cents retail is 796 00:54:06,119 --> 00:54:12,800 twelve cents. Where can I use this electricity? Wow, I'm an electric 797 00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:22,679 car. So I started following EVS and Tesla because one of the test force 798 00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:35,480 members that I was running at two had ordered a Model three previously, was 799 00:54:35,519 --> 00:54:38,800 the s in the accident. The Model three came out in twenty seventeen and 800 00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:45,840 twenty eighteen. When we started task Force, he had one on order and 801 00:54:45,679 --> 00:54:52,239 he was pretty excited about it, and so I started investigating it and figured 802 00:54:52,280 --> 00:55:01,239 out that I could drive eight thousand miles on two thousand of the three thousand 803 00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:08,800 surplus kilowatt hours. That's you're driving two thousand miles and painted in zero zero. 804 00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:15,119 Yeah, so now I got a thousand kilo at hours left over. 805 00:55:15,079 --> 00:55:22,840 So I looked at replacing this was probably a dumb thing. I replaced my 806 00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:30,320 air conditioner and gas furnace with a heat pump. So right now I'm pretty 807 00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:35,239 flat plus or minus you know, one hundred at the end of a year. 808 00:55:35,519 --> 00:55:44,480 So it's fully utilized. And if if roys or break evens are you 809 00:55:44,519 --> 00:55:51,559 know, in eleven thirteen percent on straight solar. When you add an electric 810 00:55:51,679 --> 00:55:59,519 vehicle, the returns go ballistic. Last year twenty twenty two, it was 811 00:55:59,559 --> 00:56:06,719 a third six percent return because of four dollars fifty cent gasoline, so you 812 00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:10,239 have gasoline avoidance, so that bumps up your turn. So what I like 813 00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:17,559 to say is that solar plus a b EV is a perfect marriage. Yeah, 814 00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:21,239 sounds like you get it, you get a great return. So that's 815 00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:25,039 that's my story of how I I got into it. My son in law 816 00:56:25,199 --> 00:56:30,920 in Los Angeles bought a Y model, the Model Y, the SUV and 817 00:56:31,079 --> 00:56:38,880 uh he decided to do the solar roof as a part of that and for 818 00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:44,239 exactly the reasons that you pointed out. So you're saying, if a person 819 00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:47,000 just to kind of close a door in the solar, if you're considering doing 820 00:56:47,119 --> 00:56:51,880 solar, the first thing you do is become as energy efficient as you can 821 00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,440 and then see what your usage really is correct, and then see how you 822 00:56:55,519 --> 00:57:00,920 replace that usage. Yes, let me first put some could you Yeah, 823 00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:04,639 you did that, because I have put I put solar on my house a 824 00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,760 year and a half, two years ago, and hearing what you just told 825 00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:08,840 me, I wish someone would have told me that two years ago, saying 826 00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:13,039 because I definitely got way more than I need. I can see that. 827 00:57:13,119 --> 00:57:16,639 But also the thing that they sold me was a battery attached to it the 828 00:57:16,719 --> 00:57:22,159 solar, so they store is your solar. Also that same way, you 829 00:57:22,199 --> 00:57:25,880 have a battery where it holds the excess energy that's not used. No, 830 00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:34,280 I did not have a battery. And the reason is I'm grandfathered into what 831 00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:40,360 it's called annual net metering, so I carry over a surplus. Like say 832 00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:45,360 April is a nice sunny month, you make more than you can use, 833 00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:52,719 and you know there's no air conditioning, so those those kilo one hours go 834 00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:55,159 to the next month, and then to the next month and the next month, 835 00:57:55,199 --> 00:58:00,320 so in July, in August, and September, I'll pull lot of 836 00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:05,119 that that bank account, if you will, and use it. So that 837 00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,239 and that's not available for everyone. No, it's not so now it's the 838 00:58:08,239 --> 00:58:14,679 battery. So the battery. Yeah, then people go about what ten years 839 00:58:14,719 --> 00:58:20,880 ago? So well the latest one was twenty fifteen. Mark. Mark starts 840 00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:23,000 up and is that why you have a different deal than what Todd has? 841 00:58:24,159 --> 00:58:28,639 And it's where do you you're on t EP? No, I'm SRP up 842 00:58:28,679 --> 00:58:31,360 in Phoenix. Oh okay, Salt River Project. Yeah, yeah, I 843 00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:35,599 have solar through TP. But I I just bought a house and the previous 844 00:58:35,639 --> 00:58:37,880 owners put solar on there. How do you find out if you have all 845 00:58:37,920 --> 00:58:40,320 this because I don't really know. Is there a way because I got it 846 00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:45,480 through Solar City? How do you find out what like the usage and all 847 00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:46,880 that gifts? I don't think I have a battery? Is there a way? 848 00:58:47,039 --> 00:58:51,920 I'm just curious to find it out. Are you getting electric bills from 849 00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:54,159 TEP? Yeah? Is it just on there? Yeah? It's everything is 850 00:58:54,239 --> 00:58:59,400 on the bill, you think, so you have to study it? Twenty 851 00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:01,880 five dollars now I just want to know. Now, I didn't realize like 852 00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:05,480 that you could buy them in different increments of small, medium, large, 853 00:59:05,559 --> 00:59:08,639 or something like that. Oh, it's that that was just the contractors. 854 00:59:09,119 --> 00:59:16,840 Oh wait, they're infinitely customizable. So why is there a battery? Now? 855 00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:24,039 What's the purpose of the battery? The battery is so um that you 856 00:59:24,079 --> 00:59:30,480 can start when you're making it and use it at night, after after sundown, 857 00:59:30,519 --> 00:59:35,079 and you don't have to buy it from the utility. Batteries are still 858 00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:37,360 kind of expensive. And that's the next point I wanted to bring up. 859 00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:42,360 Is I mean, I think, just for full disclosure, I think it 860 00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:47,239 was forty eight thousand. The entire loan I got to put on to put 861 00:59:47,280 --> 00:59:52,719 on it, I think it was twelve fifteen panels. The state of the 862 00:59:52,840 --> 01:00:00,000 art whatever LG battery. I think of a house for fourteen hundred square feet. 863 01:00:00,159 --> 01:00:01,960 The biggest problem is, I know for a fact my house is not 864 01:00:02,079 --> 01:00:06,559 energy efficient. You know what I mean. You're talking about a house built 865 01:00:06,559 --> 01:00:09,920 in nineteen sixty three. There's a lot of you know, loose ends where 866 01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:15,239 air gets out. It's Phoenix also where it's extremely hot. So our house 867 01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:23,599 is thirty one hundred square feet the five point seven kilowatt system was fifteen thousand 868 01:00:23,639 --> 01:00:32,000 before tax credit or ninety five hundred after tax credit for three thousands plus square 869 01:00:32,039 --> 01:00:36,880 foot house. And we're talking ten years ago, right, twenty fifteen, 870 01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,920 which is about eight years ago. Yeah, so that had a big inflation 871 01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:45,840 obviously during those years. So maybe something more. But the pricing of panels 872 01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:50,440 and inverters of has come way down. L Batteries are still expenses that you 873 01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:54,480 said, batteries are still expensive, but look for battery costs to come down. 874 01:00:54,519 --> 01:01:00,519 They're coming down by rights law. At that's too details, but fourteen 875 01:01:00,559 --> 01:01:04,599 percent a year, and I will say, even though I spent you know, 876 01:01:04,639 --> 01:01:07,480 it's a lot of money, I still probably break even on what I 877 01:01:07,559 --> 01:01:14,039 was spending before or after. It doesn't really change how much I was paying. 878 01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:16,679 Probably because I didn't really dig into the details. I probably could be 879 01:01:16,679 --> 01:01:20,679 saving money if I did it correct. I think the smartest thing that Ron 880 01:01:20,719 --> 01:01:23,639 said to me was Number one, get your house energy efficient. Yeah, 881 01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:28,960 then figure out how much you're actually using and then buy what you're going to 882 01:01:29,119 --> 01:01:32,320 need. And as opposed to all that, let's let's get onto electric vehicles. 883 01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:37,239 Because the time, let me just throw in in one thing that's really 884 01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:44,400 important to all the listeners is Energy Sage. Sage one word dot com. 885 01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:50,440 They they will get you as many bids as you want, and they will 886 01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:55,880 be competitive and nobody is going to take advantage of you if you go through 887 01:01:57,000 --> 01:02:00,559 Energy Sage, so you will not overpay the whole deal. I mean, 888 01:02:00,599 --> 01:02:04,000 that's the way to do it. And who are they run? Who are 889 01:02:04,079 --> 01:02:07,519 whose Energy Sage? They're just a company. You know. They probably get 890 01:02:07,719 --> 01:02:14,280 a three hundred dollars per per contract back from the winning bidder. And they 891 01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:17,440 just put this all together and that that text I just got from my neighbor. 892 01:02:17,719 --> 01:02:22,519 So they protect you, they kind of help they Yes, they protect 893 01:02:22,559 --> 01:02:27,320 you very much. So they they vet all the contractors. Is it energy 894 01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:32,719 sage dot com or yes, energy sage dot com. Correct, appreciate that. 895 01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:36,880 Hey, quick question. You've got a Tesla A twenty twenty. You 896 01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:39,280 talked about your wife and you going on a trip to Vegas and as you 897 01:02:39,400 --> 01:02:43,000 backed out of the driveway, I told you where you're going to charge? 898 01:02:43,039 --> 01:02:47,679 And yes, which is amazing. How long does it take to charge an 899 01:02:47,679 --> 01:02:57,199 electuy vehicle when you're on the road, Well, it all depends the um 900 01:02:58,119 --> 01:03:07,599 the strategy is to to leave home at ninety percent technically on on certain kinds 901 01:03:07,639 --> 01:03:10,679 of battery cells, battery chemistries. You don't want to You don't want to 902 01:03:10,719 --> 01:03:15,800 charge one hundred percent every day. So on the sliding scale on the car 903 01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:23,039 it says daily zero to eighty four trips eighty two hundred. So you start 904 01:03:23,039 --> 01:03:34,280 out, you know, eighty or I mean und then you you stop. 905 01:03:35,159 --> 01:03:37,440 Well, one of the things I say is my my battery is bigger than 906 01:03:37,480 --> 01:03:45,679 my bladder. Okay, I got that situation. Was you you know in 907 01:03:45,719 --> 01:03:47,960 three hours you'll probably want to stop. Yeah, I never made it that 908 01:03:49,039 --> 01:03:57,000 far. Um. And then charging is fastest from a low state of charge, 909 01:03:57,039 --> 01:04:01,320 so down in the ten percent up to fifty or sixty. That's how 910 01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:11,039 you optimize your trip by doing, say a fifteen minutes stop for a comfort 911 01:04:11,079 --> 01:04:15,000 break and maybe a snack and stretch your legs. You know, fifteen minutes 912 01:04:15,039 --> 01:04:19,159 goes by pretty fast. You know, when you're pumping gas, it's you 913 01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:23,760 got to stay with the pump and then you go into the restroom. So 914 01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:27,159 the whole thing takes ten minutes. So now you're talking fifteen big deal. 915 01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:30,440 And you only do that when you're on the road. So at home. 916 01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:39,320 It takes me eight seconds to plug in at home, and I plug in 917 01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:45,880 every night because if there's an emergency, I've got eighty percent full tank all 918 01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:49,639 the time. Right important, you know, easy peasy. So so the 919 01:04:50,199 --> 01:04:54,199 fifteen minutes is at a typical and that takes you from what charge to what 920 01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:58,800 charge? How much? How many more miles would that get you? Fifteen 921 01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:08,559 minutes? One hundred and fifty? But then there are different strength levels, 922 01:05:08,599 --> 01:05:15,079 if you will, different kilowatt um sizing of Tesla superchargers. The ones up 923 01:05:15,079 --> 01:05:19,639 here at line Kentata Mall at seventy five, those are over ten years old, 924 01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:30,239 and the latest one over at River Thornydale and Orange is two hundred and 925 01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:38,239 fifty kilowatts. That charge is really fast. Yeah, and it's rumored that 926 01:05:38,559 --> 01:05:44,320 three fifty is coming next. So you can ultimately see, isn't that's the 927 01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:46,320 key, isn't it to get down to where you could maybe refill you know, 928 01:05:46,719 --> 01:05:49,039 a little more than you would take you to put in gas in the 929 01:05:49,119 --> 01:05:55,000 car. Yeah, and in the car right now, it tells me where 930 01:05:55,039 --> 01:05:58,239 I should stop for how long? Right now? Let me ask you, 931 01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:02,679 we're run out of time. It's important you go into a dealer, I 932 01:06:02,719 --> 01:06:08,719 must say, you see a Tesla or I mentioned the Mustang. Mock I 933 01:06:08,800 --> 01:06:13,079 like that, and you go into the dealer, What kind of questions should 934 01:06:13,079 --> 01:06:20,239 you ask? Um? Does the mobile charger come with? What's your what's 935 01:06:20,280 --> 01:06:29,239 your warranty? This range? I range? It will be um an EPA 936 01:06:29,400 --> 01:06:35,719 sticker which will say and a typical electric well, Tesla's are all up in 937 01:06:35,800 --> 01:06:43,760 the one hundred and twenty to one hundred and thirty some miles per gallon equivalent. 938 01:06:43,960 --> 01:06:50,119 So the EPA turns um the electricity usage into a number that people can 939 01:06:50,159 --> 01:06:54,960 relate to it like miles per gallon. But it's MPGe. Yeah, I 940 01:06:55,000 --> 01:07:00,559 hear you, so Um, it's so much. It's so much cheaper using 941 01:07:00,559 --> 01:07:09,159 electricity. And that's why the total cost of ownership is already better than gasoline 942 01:07:09,159 --> 01:07:18,559 cars. And the price parody is here now for purchasing ev because help from 943 01:07:18,599 --> 01:07:27,679 the IRA Inflation Reduction Act tax credits of up to seventy five hundred dollars per 944 01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:35,000 vehicle for battery components and battery packs made in North America. One question we 945 01:07:35,079 --> 01:07:40,840 hear an awful lot is how can it already strained electric grid handle millions of 946 01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:46,880 electric vehicles. Well, the millions aren't here yet. And probably something that 947 01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:56,480 most people don't realize is that from the nineteen sixties until twenty twenty, the 948 01:07:57,800 --> 01:08:03,239 grid increased by five x and you just you don't really know about it. 949 01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:08,400 I mean, the utilities are kind of quiet about these things, you know, 950 01:08:08,440 --> 01:08:11,760 they just see what the usage is and they build it out. There. 951 01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:15,880 We have five times electric grid that we had forty years ago. Yeah, 952 01:08:15,920 --> 01:08:24,119 forty fifty years ago. The other thing is that the grid is um 953 01:08:25,560 --> 01:08:30,079 Let's take California for example, in July and August, so that's when things 954 01:08:30,079 --> 01:08:40,359 get a little little stressed. Yes, at electricity man peaks at like five 955 01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:47,880 thirty to six pm in the afternoon. At three am to five am, 956 01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:57,119 it's at sixty percent of the peak. So the power companies would be very 957 01:08:57,119 --> 01:09:00,319 happy to sell you electricity, and they get of you price signals. They 958 01:09:00,319 --> 01:09:06,119 say, you you charge in the wee hours of the morning, and we'll 959 01:09:06,199 --> 01:09:11,359 charge you eight cents. If you charge in the middle of the afternoon, 960 01:09:11,520 --> 01:09:15,560 or you know, at five thirty pm, we'll charge you a buck. 961 01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:18,439 So people are gonna have to set it alarm almost right for like two am. 962 01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,279 Gotta go plug much charger. No, No, it's program. You 963 01:09:21,399 --> 01:09:27,439 leave it plugged in and it doesn't it doesn't start because it's already a I 964 01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:31,239 mean like like three three three taps to say okay, come on at this 965 01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:34,520 time. That's cool. But is that going to change if the majority of 966 01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:39,800 people start doing start charging at two am? Is are they going to start 967 01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:45,159 charging more money than if that's when everybody does it? Um like that would 968 01:09:45,159 --> 01:09:48,439 be in a sense, yeah, well at to see how that works out. 969 01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:54,560 But I mean, the companies are utilities are adding like for example, 970 01:09:54,680 --> 01:10:03,840 Trico put in a big utility scale solar array and the big Tesla megapacs that 971 01:10:03,640 --> 01:10:11,239 that look like a c tainer. They put everything into one eight by eight 972 01:10:11,279 --> 01:10:16,359 by forty foot long box and call it a megapac. And so Trico has 973 01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:23,479 that, and that'll take care of three thousand homes and Saddlebrook and Saddlebrook Ranch 974 01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:30,520 for four hours, So that that helps them to cover that let's say four 975 01:10:30,119 --> 01:10:34,399 four pm to eight pm window when the biggest demand is Is it most of 976 01:10:34,399 --> 01:10:41,319 our electrical grid still on fossil fuels or is that a misquote? What is 977 01:10:41,560 --> 01:10:44,640 the percentage of how the electric actually gets its energy? Right? Now. 978 01:10:45,079 --> 01:10:54,239 Um, yet, yes, coal is going down. Um they call it 979 01:10:54,279 --> 01:10:59,199 a combined cycle. Natural gas plants they're going up, and then there's a 980 01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:08,279 there's of course some nuclear, which you know nuclear is would be a good 981 01:11:08,279 --> 01:11:12,760 thing to do. For example, France is like eighty or ninety percent nuclear. 982 01:11:13,039 --> 01:11:17,079 Yeah, but yes, so a lot still comes from fossil fields. 983 01:11:17,079 --> 01:11:24,359 But solar plus wind and storage is growing like gangbusters. Is that your favorite 984 01:11:24,359 --> 01:11:27,640 renewable energy or is it nuclear? Or if you had to pick one, 985 01:11:29,840 --> 01:11:34,520 solar plus wind plus storage is cheaper. And I, David, I sent 986 01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:42,279 you those reports from from Lazard and other places that that talked about the LCOE 987 01:11:42,359 --> 01:11:45,720 level ice cost of energy or electricity. I mean, and it says that 988 01:11:46,359 --> 01:11:51,840 solar wind storage is the cheapest today. We don't need any breakthrough technology. 989 01:11:53,119 --> 01:11:56,560 I've got seventeen houses in my neighborhood. Two years ago there were no solar 990 01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:59,960 panels and there were no electric cars. There are now five homes with solar 991 01:12:00,000 --> 01:12:02,560 annals, but there's still an electric car. So we're gonna get there. 992 01:12:02,600 --> 01:12:05,479 Ron, thank you for taking time to come in. If you've got a 993 01:12:05,560 --> 01:12:10,520 question for Ron, give us a call here at Greenberg Financial and I'll get 994 01:12:10,760 --> 01:12:13,479 an email to Ron and we'll see Phil communicate with you. I think he 995 01:12:13,560 --> 01:12:25,359 might like to do that. Thank you, Thank you. Okay, welcome 996 01:12:25,399 --> 01:12:28,119 back to the Money Matters Show. My name is Todd Blick. I'm here 997 01:12:28,159 --> 01:12:31,439 with Dave Sherwood and Dylan Greenberg. Would like to thank Ron Lenz again for 998 01:12:31,600 --> 01:12:38,359 his insightful conversation on solar and ev. It's always great to have um informative 999 01:12:38,359 --> 01:12:42,439 opinions that are different than your own, because that's what life's all about learning, 1000 01:12:42,600 --> 01:12:45,760 right, Yeah, we appreciate Ron's time and coming in. And Ron 1001 01:12:45,760 --> 01:12:48,680 and have so much to knowledge to offer, could have easily been the entire 1002 01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:53,640 two hour show. UM with the with the kind of knowledge he's packing, 1003 01:12:53,920 --> 01:12:57,760 what I tried to do is get it down to those sailing and points that 1004 01:12:58,159 --> 01:13:03,119 that I'm interested in, which I'm thinking every other person like me is going 1005 01:13:03,199 --> 01:13:06,800 to be interested in as well. So we do appreciate him coming in. 1006 01:13:08,000 --> 01:13:11,720 This week, the Dow was up point three percent, SMP was up point 1007 01:13:11,760 --> 01:13:15,760 four, NASDAC was up point one, Russell led the way up one point 1008 01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:19,479 six. The small caps really coming back off. They've kind of been quiet 1009 01:13:19,520 --> 01:13:23,439 for a while, and so it's they're kind of just trying to catch up 1010 01:13:23,439 --> 01:13:27,960 to the party. Equal Weighted was actually above the SMP this week, showing 1011 01:13:28,000 --> 01:13:31,359 that the smaller companies in the SMP did a little better than the bigger ones. 1012 01:13:31,399 --> 01:13:34,479 It seems like, because as we've been saying, the year to date, 1013 01:13:35,079 --> 01:13:41,439 SMP has been absolutely crushing the equal weighted SMP. The equated is actually 1014 01:13:41,479 --> 01:13:45,680 beating the SNP and the Dow and the NASDAC for the month, the equated 1015 01:13:45,840 --> 01:13:50,560 SPI one week into the month. But yeah, week in two days, 1016 01:13:50,640 --> 01:13:54,359 Yeah, seven business days. Trading days though, if you want to be 1017 01:13:54,359 --> 01:13:58,000 tech, seven trading days, right, Yeah, come, I'll be technical. 1018 01:14:00,119 --> 01:14:02,720 Is it over our technical analysis now, are we No? What I'll 1019 01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:06,920 say what's interesting too, is that now we're technically considered in a bull market 1020 01:14:06,960 --> 01:14:11,279 because we're twenty percent plus over twenty percent off the lows. Right. It 1021 01:14:11,439 --> 01:14:14,399 just feels so weird that we're in a bull market right now. Yeah, 1022 01:14:14,439 --> 01:14:15,960 we were talking in the first segment. I think you weren't. Weren't quite 1023 01:14:15,960 --> 01:14:19,199 here. He had where we're in twenty twenty. Spring of twenty twenty, 1024 01:14:19,199 --> 01:14:21,880 we had a bull market, a bear market, and a bull market all 1025 01:14:21,920 --> 01:14:26,079 within a period of about six weeks. Yeah, and we had the world's 1026 01:14:26,079 --> 01:14:30,000 shortest recession of them in the shortest recession during that time. Yeah, oh 1027 01:14:30,079 --> 01:14:33,600 that was a weird time. I talk a little bit about semi conductors because 1028 01:14:33,600 --> 01:14:39,520 semi conductor space has been hot with the Nvidia leading the way AMD even though 1029 01:14:39,600 --> 01:14:43,720 they don't really have an AI ship they're working on. One stock has been 1030 01:14:43,880 --> 01:14:49,199 on fire, the Qualcom who reported a horrible quarter about thirty days ago. 1031 01:14:49,520 --> 01:14:56,239 On fire Intael Intaeil Dylan, you mentioned one of the top Dallas stocks, 1032 01:14:56,680 --> 01:15:00,720 even though they haven't done anything right since I had black hair and I have 1033 01:15:00,760 --> 01:15:03,840 white hair now, so there you go. The index, the Semiconductor Index 1034 01:15:03,960 --> 01:15:08,840 is up fifty percent for the year, which is on track for the best 1035 01:15:09,039 --> 01:15:15,199 first six months in history of that index, the best first six months ever 1036 01:15:15,319 --> 01:15:20,600 driven by AI. Be careful, be careful. Yeah, AI has had 1037 01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:25,479 a huge run up. That's just ridiculous how fast it's gone up. I 1038 01:15:25,479 --> 01:15:28,079 mean that video jumped one hundred points out there. It's right, but it's 1039 01:15:28,439 --> 01:15:31,479 like a good example. Get Lab g t lab. You ever heard of 1040 01:15:31,479 --> 01:15:35,880 that? You ever heard a get lab, provider of code deployment software. 1041 01:15:36,479 --> 01:15:42,279 They've down twenty two percent for the year, but jumped thirty percent on Tuesday, 1042 01:15:42,279 --> 01:15:45,199 after reporting their losses have narrowed. They're still losing money, Okay, 1043 01:15:45,439 --> 01:15:53,479 but it's narrowed, but here's the capital. But they announced a generative AI 1044 01:15:53,640 --> 01:15:57,760 plan. They are working on a generative AI plan, and that's that's all 1045 01:15:57,800 --> 01:16:00,880 it took to get it up. Thirty reminds me of them marijuana boom reminds 1046 01:16:00,920 --> 01:16:06,600 me of the bitcoin boom. But it reminds me of the tulip boom. 1047 01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:11,479 And you young guys are looking at me like what talk Actually me, being 1048 01:16:11,479 --> 01:16:14,560 in the crypto space, I probably know more about the tulips than most people. 1049 01:16:14,840 --> 01:16:17,359 You know about the tulip boom. That's that's because literally the best argument 1050 01:16:17,399 --> 01:16:20,800 that people have against why bitcoin does not have an intrinsic value. Uh, 1051 01:16:21,000 --> 01:16:26,720 they Yes, the tulips was in Uh. I believe it was the in 1052 01:16:26,840 --> 01:16:30,560 Holland, Holland because yeah, that the flowers, all those in sixteen thirty 1053 01:16:30,600 --> 01:16:33,079 seven, and uh, for some reason, people really wanted to use tulips 1054 01:16:33,119 --> 01:16:38,119 as assets and they boomed to the which they were combined. They were combined 1055 01:16:38,159 --> 01:16:41,319 him to make all kinds of different hybrigen things. So they needed the bulbs 1056 01:16:41,359 --> 01:16:45,720 and the so the bulbs went up eleven hundred percent in one month. People 1057 01:16:45,720 --> 01:16:53,720 were creating fake tulips in one month. Yea, And so that obviously couldn't 1058 01:16:53,760 --> 01:17:00,359 be sustained and it collapsed. Another big bubble in history was the Mississippi um 1059 01:17:00,600 --> 01:17:03,399 Um Shipping Company. I believe that was one of the big first big stock 1060 01:17:03,479 --> 01:17:06,640 bubbles in a company, and a lot of that had to do with, 1061 01:17:06,760 --> 01:17:12,840 you know, a lot of just not true fundamentals that was going to be 1062 01:17:12,880 --> 01:17:18,159 sustainable, right. The Tula boom is widely believed to be the first bubble. 1063 01:17:18,319 --> 01:17:21,800 That was the first first bubble ever, and then to the point where 1064 01:17:23,079 --> 01:17:27,760 even today, speculative bubbles are often referred to as tulipmania. If you hear 1065 01:17:27,840 --> 01:17:30,760 somebody talking about tuiletmania, we're we're getting closed. I remember hearing tulet mania 1066 01:17:30,760 --> 01:17:34,560 for the first time in twenty seventeen for into bitcoin when it was trading at 1067 01:17:34,600 --> 01:17:41,000 about eleven thousand dollars. Yeah, yeah, hasn't crashed yet, No, 1068 01:17:42,600 --> 01:17:45,760 down about five hundred bucks. Uh this week. Last week was crushed in 1069 01:17:45,760 --> 01:17:49,680 different ways. Yeah, sixty eight thousand, and it crashed down at eighteen 1070 01:17:49,720 --> 01:17:55,479 thousand, from eleven thousand and sixty eight to tand that's a point. You're 1071 01:17:55,479 --> 01:18:00,960 still up from eleven thousand, pretty far, and that leads us into this 1072 01:18:00,039 --> 01:18:05,319 crypto stuff. Right. We had the SEC suing two large exchanges this week, 1073 01:18:05,399 --> 01:18:10,479 Binance being one of them. Binance for different reasons than coin Base. 1074 01:18:10,960 --> 01:18:15,319 Coin Base was also sued. And Cathy Wood, which is the ARC investor 1075 01:18:15,359 --> 01:18:19,399 who was very big into technology, she bought the dip. She says, 1076 01:18:19,760 --> 01:18:25,840 I she's adding more than twenty million dollars to her funds on Tuesday as the 1077 01:18:25,880 --> 01:18:30,520 shares sank twelve percent that day, she wasn't scared, and you know, 1078 01:18:30,640 --> 01:18:33,279 she seems like a pretty smart girl. She probably has a lot of teams 1079 01:18:33,439 --> 01:18:40,239 understanding what litigations going on in coin Base. And they SEC already warned coin 1080 01:18:40,279 --> 01:18:42,479 Base that they were going to do this a couple months ago, so it 1081 01:18:42,520 --> 01:18:45,640 wasn't a huge it's a big headline, which is why of the stock's going 1082 01:18:45,720 --> 01:18:46,920 to be down, but it was a known thing that was going to be 1083 01:18:46,960 --> 01:18:50,680 about. And this is my big thing with the SEC is coin Base has 1084 01:18:50,720 --> 01:18:55,199 reached out to the SEC multiple times. The coin Base has even sued the 1085 01:18:55,439 --> 01:18:59,840 SEC for not giving them clear rules and guidance on how they need to operate 1086 01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:03,000 their business, and then SEC comes around and sues them for not following business 1087 01:19:03,039 --> 01:19:06,920 when there's no rules for a coin base and binance, and it made you 1088 01:19:08,000 --> 01:19:11,119 kind of wonder how they coming at Is this the first step in coming after 1089 01:19:11,159 --> 01:19:14,920 crypto? And yet Bitcoin just kind of shrugged it off. And this is 1090 01:19:14,960 --> 01:19:18,000 why, and that's what people do not understand is even the SEC chairman, 1091 01:19:18,319 --> 01:19:24,159 which is Genzler, he says that bitcoin is a commodity and the ethereum could 1092 01:19:24,159 --> 01:19:28,039 also be classified as a commodity, but everything else, although other crypto tokens 1093 01:19:28,079 --> 01:19:31,479 will be considered securities. When you're considered a security, you have different regulations, 1094 01:19:31,680 --> 01:19:35,439 you have different reporting requirements because you're considered a company. A commodity is 1095 01:19:35,439 --> 01:19:40,119 not controlled by any one third party. That's why ethereum is kind of in 1096 01:19:40,119 --> 01:19:42,600 a gray area. They don't know whether you're going to put in each box. 1097 01:19:42,640 --> 01:19:46,359 But bitcoin's clearly a commodity because it's not controlled by any one group of 1098 01:19:46,399 --> 01:19:50,800 people. It's a decentralized network and it's just like anything like gold or anything. 1099 01:19:50,800 --> 01:19:56,039 It's just electronic, so you can't regulate it like a company. And 1100 01:19:56,199 --> 01:20:00,479 that is why Bitcoin shrugged it off. People are still going to be able 1101 01:20:00,479 --> 01:20:02,720 to buy a bitcoin. If anything, the most interesting thing was on binance 1102 01:20:02,920 --> 01:20:06,159 US. The US side of Binance, bitcoin was trading for about a two 1103 01:20:06,159 --> 01:20:11,840 thousand dollars premium. Then the actual spot price of bitcoin. Really yeah, 1104 01:20:12,039 --> 01:20:15,920 how can there be How can there be a spot price when it trades twenty 1105 01:20:15,960 --> 01:20:19,920 four seven? Well, because the actual exchange itself is running into problems. 1106 01:20:20,239 --> 01:20:24,920 It says, if you're worried about stranded dollars at your bitcoin exchange because of 1107 01:20:24,960 --> 01:20:29,000 the banking crisis, look out for the bitcoin price on the exchange starts trading 1108 01:20:29,000 --> 01:20:32,680 out of premium compared to market averages. It means the exchange dollars balances are 1109 01:20:32,760 --> 01:20:42,119 losing purchasing power. So essentially the balances that exchange are holding in dollar balances 1110 01:20:42,319 --> 01:20:45,000 is lowering, and so they are not able. They have to make their 1111 01:20:45,039 --> 01:20:47,399 spread in some way to be able to stay in business. So I think 1112 01:20:47,439 --> 01:20:50,960 they're charging a premium on the bitcoin price of each purchase to make up for 1113 01:20:51,039 --> 01:20:57,680 that. We're seeing the biggest discrepancy. I thought this. We've noticed that 1114 01:20:57,760 --> 01:21:02,079 we've talked a lot about the equated SMP versus the SMP. Last week I 1115 01:21:02,119 --> 01:21:08,760 saw a report that it's the biggest under performance of value versus growth since two 1116 01:21:08,800 --> 01:21:14,920 thousand and three, so twenty years, twenty years since value has underperformed growth 1117 01:21:14,960 --> 01:21:19,359 to this extent. And the again, the SMP five hundred up twelve percent 1118 01:21:19,439 --> 01:21:26,399 year to date, the value ETFs that that I follow are down down three 1119 01:21:26,439 --> 01:21:30,159 to four percent. That's a huge discrepancy. And again it's because of the 1120 01:21:30,199 --> 01:21:35,439 Magnificent seven. You just pointed out that eight of the eleven SMP five hundred 1121 01:21:35,439 --> 01:21:40,760 sectors are down for the year. Yeah, And a lot of the value 1122 01:21:40,800 --> 01:21:44,640 companies are utilities and energy and stuff like that with the high dividends, and 1123 01:21:44,760 --> 01:21:47,279 healthcare and financials, and they're down at the bottom. Right. So if 1124 01:21:47,279 --> 01:21:50,359 you're you for you to be up big on the year, you're going to 1125 01:21:50,439 --> 01:21:54,960 have to be in the Magnificent seven. Yep. I mean if you're not, 1126 01:21:55,039 --> 01:21:57,920 then the yeah, And I mean that comes with the idea of yeah, 1127 01:21:57,960 --> 01:22:00,039 you got to be in the Magnificent seven. But if you were the 1128 01:22:00,119 --> 01:22:03,319 Magnificent seven last year, you're getting killed all of them. So that's like, 1129 01:22:03,399 --> 01:22:08,840 and it's the idea of investing is can you switch your emotions that quickly? 1130 01:22:09,520 --> 01:22:11,720 December thirty first, can all of a sudden you be like, Okay, 1131 01:22:11,960 --> 01:22:15,760 now it's time to get aggressive. It's hard for people to change their 1132 01:22:15,880 --> 01:22:18,439 emotions that quick and their investment style that quick, because you really don't. 1133 01:22:18,479 --> 01:22:24,399 You gotta stick to an investment style that will be okay through the good times 1134 01:22:24,399 --> 01:22:27,000 and the bad times, you know, in the sense of that. But 1135 01:22:27,039 --> 01:22:30,119 because it's tough to be in to switch into that immediately, just can't. 1136 01:22:30,239 --> 01:22:34,199 Well. I think what we talked about salesforce dot Com being the worst performing 1137 01:22:34,279 --> 01:22:39,960 dovestock last year and the best performing dovestock this year. What that is probably 1138 01:22:40,039 --> 01:22:45,840 telling you is, if you have a significant exposure to the Magnificent seven, 1139 01:22:45,560 --> 01:22:50,479 it may be time to pair some of that back and put it into value. 1140 01:22:51,199 --> 01:22:54,800 Yeah, it doesn't hurt to take a profit when these companies have run 1141 01:22:54,880 --> 01:22:58,119 up this much so quickly. It never hurts to take a profit. Like 1142 01:22:58,159 --> 01:23:00,920 that is the whole saying trees do not grow to the sky yep, And 1143 01:23:00,960 --> 01:23:04,319 it's not. And we're not saying sell everything and then go all cash and 1144 01:23:04,359 --> 01:23:06,960 then come back and try and time everything. It's like, take your profit, 1145 01:23:08,239 --> 01:23:11,239 maybe sell half, maybe sell a quarter. We always say it as 1146 01:23:11,319 --> 01:23:14,359 you can dollar cost average in which we always do with new money. But 1147 01:23:14,399 --> 01:23:17,560 you can always also dollar cost average out right. But we're looking at account. 1148 01:23:17,600 --> 01:23:23,119 So let's say an account wants to be a sixty percent invested. Well, 1149 01:23:23,199 --> 01:23:27,840 let me be more specific. Let's say account has wants to have fifteen 1150 01:23:27,880 --> 01:23:30,479 percent in growth and they have Nvidia in there, and they have Microsoft in 1151 01:23:30,520 --> 01:23:33,520 there, and they have Amazon in there. Now that fifteen percent is twenty 1152 01:23:33,560 --> 01:23:36,960 percent. Yep, we're bringing it back to fifteen percent exactly. And you 1153 01:23:36,960 --> 01:23:41,199 can break it down even more on those specific companies. Say you want a 1154 01:23:41,199 --> 01:23:44,279 three percent position in Nvidio, that's what you max it out at. It's 1155 01:23:44,359 --> 01:23:45,319 run up so quickly in the last two months, and now you have a 1156 01:23:45,319 --> 01:23:48,399 five percent position. You sell two percent of it, get you back to 1157 01:23:48,439 --> 01:23:50,760 where you were, and now you got a two percent profit. Right, 1158 01:23:50,760 --> 01:23:55,439 then you go into the into those stocks that have not performed all of the 1159 01:23:55,479 --> 01:23:59,960 Procter and Gambles or Johnson anouncers of and then when that starts to correct, 1160 01:24:00,079 --> 01:24:04,159 when that discrepancy corrects itself, and it will ye, it'll either correct it 1161 01:24:04,239 --> 01:24:08,600 by the tech stocks coming down to the value stocks going up one or the 1162 01:24:08,640 --> 01:24:12,439 other, but it will correct if you have sold some of your tech and 1163 01:24:12,479 --> 01:24:15,119 bought value. You're gonna be very happy you did that. Yeah, I'd 1164 01:24:15,119 --> 01:24:20,479 say so. So. We will be back after this break. We appreciate 1165 01:24:20,479 --> 01:24:24,319 your listening to us on this Sunday morning. Once again, our thanks to 1166 01:24:24,439 --> 01:24:28,800 Ron Lens for his expertise. And if you want to reach Ron, give 1167 01:24:28,880 --> 01:24:33,920 us a call two zero five four four four nine o nine. Give us 1168 01:24:33,960 --> 01:24:38,720 your question. We'll get that question to Ron and uh and he'll get you 1169 01:24:38,760 --> 01:24:41,560 an answer and we'll shoot that back to you. Again, thanks for him 1170 01:24:41,680 --> 01:24:45,800 joining us and thanks for listening. We will be back with the final segment 1171 01:24:45,359 --> 01:24:53,920 right after this break. Welcome back. You'll listen to the final segment of 1172 01:24:54,000 --> 01:24:57,199 this Money Matters show. I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Dave Sherwood and 1173 01:24:57,199 --> 01:25:00,840 Todd Click. We're talking about everything going on the market. Wasn't a crazy 1174 01:25:00,840 --> 01:25:02,479 week, not really any news. You kind of thought it was going to 1175 01:25:02,560 --> 01:25:05,960 be a pretty quiet week, which it ended up being. This week coming 1176 01:25:06,039 --> 01:25:10,880 up is gonna have a lot more news, a lot more what ifs coming 1177 01:25:10,960 --> 01:25:13,600 up with the CPI. With the Fed, are they gonna do that? 1178 01:25:13,800 --> 01:25:17,000 It's gonna be interesting what the Fed says. We don't think they're gonna raise 1179 01:25:17,079 --> 01:25:20,600 rates It's gonna be interesting in what Pala says going forward. Are they gonna 1180 01:25:20,600 --> 01:25:24,680 posit? Are they gonna posit in July as well? Are they gonna raise 1181 01:25:24,760 --> 01:25:28,000 it? Are they gonna just kind of wait and see. That's more what 1182 01:25:28,079 --> 01:25:30,279 I think is gonna have the markets are going to react to. I think 1183 01:25:30,279 --> 01:25:33,600 going on a lot more on Tuesday after the CPI number. YEP, if 1184 01:25:33,640 --> 01:25:36,840 it does come in around two point five, I can't believe that's what they're 1185 01:25:36,920 --> 01:25:41,000 thinking. That's what they're thinking. Cut it in half. That's crazy. 1186 01:25:41,279 --> 01:25:43,840 It just seems if they do, though, Yeah, they don't. And 1187 01:25:43,880 --> 01:25:45,319 then he comes out and says that they need to raise race in July. 1188 01:25:45,439 --> 01:25:48,600 That just makes no sense. No steps, no steps. You got an 1189 01:25:48,640 --> 01:25:53,000 update on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, mister Glick, Yeah, I do. 1190 01:25:53,159 --> 01:25:56,359 You know? Biden said he's gonna make the greatest trade of all time. 1191 01:25:56,600 --> 01:25:59,520 Yeah, yeah, buy that stuff. Let's go. But you didn't close 1192 01:25:59,560 --> 01:26:01,279 out the trade when he should have. So we're all waiting, are you 1193 01:26:01,279 --> 01:26:03,800 going to close up the trade? We'll have an update on that. The 1194 01:26:03,920 --> 01:26:09,640 US Department of Energy said late Friday that it's going to award contracts for three 1195 01:26:09,720 --> 01:26:15,880 million barrels of crude oil purchases for the spr to refill it in August. 1196 01:26:15,159 --> 01:26:18,760 It's going to average at a seventy three dollars a barrel price. Okay, 1197 01:26:19,199 --> 01:26:24,359 Um, interesting fact is it drained one point nine million barrels last week alone, 1198 01:26:24,840 --> 01:26:28,840 and it still has another eight million barrels to deplete through the end of 1199 01:26:28,880 --> 01:26:32,079 June, which was man mandated by Congress a long time of twenty fifteen. 1200 01:26:32,479 --> 01:26:38,039 So we still have eight million barrels to drain. We drained two million last 1201 01:26:38,079 --> 01:26:43,920 week and we're only purchasing three million in August, so we're still net negative. 1202 01:26:43,960 --> 01:26:47,680 We're still draining, but we've finally started purchasing, so hopefully we continue 1203 01:26:48,000 --> 01:26:51,560 to award more contracts. And it's like the Energy Secretary said, it's kind 1204 01:26:51,600 --> 01:26:57,039 of hard to be buying stuff when you're selling stuff, right, So and 1205 01:26:57,119 --> 01:27:01,000 that's the that's the conundrum. This is the last year that twenty fifteen dictate 1206 01:27:01,079 --> 01:27:04,640 from Congress that they saw, was it twenty five million barrels a year to 1207 01:27:04,680 --> 01:27:10,239 help pay for the federal deficit. I mean, when did that happen and 1208 01:27:10,319 --> 01:27:15,279 who and why wasn't that news? And it's like, are you serious? 1209 01:27:15,319 --> 01:27:17,560 Really? It probably was the debt default whatever, and that no one reads. 1210 01:27:17,560 --> 01:27:20,520 They just oh, it got pasted school. Hey, Tesla had a 1211 01:27:20,560 --> 01:27:26,079 heck of a week. Huh. The company's website shows that the Model three 1212 01:27:26,359 --> 01:27:30,439 and the Model Wi are both eligible for that seventy five hundred dollars government credit 1213 01:27:30,520 --> 01:27:35,279 that ron talked about. We saw how important that that credit can be when 1214 01:27:35,359 --> 01:27:41,800 China took it away and sales in China just collapsed. Um. I think 1215 01:27:42,039 --> 01:27:45,439 maybe more importantly this is huge. Really news is that they ain't to deal 1216 01:27:45,520 --> 01:27:53,600 with Ford and with Chevrolet to allow Ford and Chevy customers to use their charging 1217 01:27:53,600 --> 01:27:56,880 stations. And I asked Ron, I said, as a Tesla owner, 1218 01:27:56,920 --> 01:28:01,520 doesn't that kind of irritate you that Ford and Chivy can now be using your 1219 01:28:01,600 --> 01:28:06,000 charging stations? And of course with adapters they probably could have all along. 1220 01:28:06,079 --> 01:28:11,199 But um, he said he didn't think Elon would leave people out there hanging 1221 01:28:11,239 --> 01:28:15,720 in the wind. But uh, isn't it interesting that Ford, GM and 1222 01:28:15,840 --> 01:28:20,279 Tesla stock all rallied on that news. They all like that news, and 1223 01:28:20,520 --> 01:28:26,840 maybe Tesla's going to become the gas station of the future. Are they working 1224 01:28:26,920 --> 01:28:30,720 with those other Is Tesla working with other companies to build more charging stations. 1225 01:28:30,800 --> 01:28:33,159 Is that part of the deal? Well, or are they or is Tesla 1226 01:28:33,239 --> 01:28:38,079 just making theirs compatible? They're just making their compatible for it's not going to 1227 01:28:38,159 --> 01:28:41,840 give Tesla money to build more charging stations now that they got three times amount 1228 01:28:41,840 --> 01:28:44,199 of cars in a sense, I didn't read that into it, but I 1229 01:28:44,239 --> 01:28:46,600 read is that that they're going to be charging the forward customers. It's like 1230 01:28:46,720 --> 01:28:49,560 they're they're going to become the gas station for Ford and Chivy. That's what 1231 01:28:49,720 --> 01:28:54,119 I mean. Yeah, that makes sense. I'm just wondering if Ford and 1232 01:28:54,199 --> 01:28:57,640 Chevy are gonna help put some money into the charging stations so they could build 1233 01:28:57,640 --> 01:29:00,880 more around the country. I think if there was nothing in nothing I saw 1234 01:29:01,000 --> 01:29:04,640 in that report, Dylan. But it's still early on, so yeah, 1235 01:29:04,640 --> 01:29:10,800 it could be. The Tesla stock was up eleven straight days, gained over 1236 01:29:10,920 --> 01:29:15,760 forty percent within the past what thirty days? Yeah, that stock was just 1237 01:29:15,880 --> 01:29:17,279 on the downfall. I got done like what one sixty, and now I 1238 01:29:17,359 --> 01:29:20,279 was back to two thirty. Yes, that's insane and it's like just a 1239 01:29:20,279 --> 01:29:26,840 matter of weeks. Yes, did you see then what Amazon's doing surprime subscribers? 1240 01:29:27,479 --> 01:29:32,319 Pretty significant, pretty significant perk. Sorry about free cell phone? Yeah, 1241 01:29:32,359 --> 01:29:36,119 I thought I saw a report that that's it's it's kind of weird how 1242 01:29:36,279 --> 01:29:42,479 it's brand new. And that's why uh, Dish and all Sky did really 1243 01:29:42,479 --> 01:29:45,279 well, not last week, the week before, because this news came out 1244 01:29:45,279 --> 01:29:47,199 with it, they're in talks her. I mean, even if something comes 1245 01:29:47,199 --> 01:29:49,960 to fruition, it's not going to be until next year. But they've been 1246 01:29:49,960 --> 01:29:55,159 talking to the companies like Dish and AT and T and T Mobile big for 1247 01:29:55,199 --> 01:29:57,760 the last few months about doing this. Well, why would you let I 1248 01:29:57,800 --> 01:30:00,640 saw a great line says, why would you let the fox the henhouse? 1249 01:30:00,720 --> 01:30:03,119 Yeah? I know, if you're if you're the T, if you're the 1250 01:30:03,119 --> 01:30:06,279 community, you know, a T and T Verizon, why would you lease 1251 01:30:06,319 --> 01:30:13,479 out your UM towers to Amazon? Unless you believe Amazon can bring you a 1252 01:30:13,520 --> 01:30:15,079 lot more customers. They're eventually just gonna take it all, you know what 1253 01:30:15,119 --> 01:30:17,119 I mean? Like, why would you like? Their growth is zero? 1254 01:30:17,520 --> 01:30:23,239 Right, and you know Verizon's dividend went to a forty year high because of 1255 01:30:23,279 --> 01:30:26,760 it. And it's to me, it just doesn't make sense why Verizon would 1256 01:30:27,479 --> 01:30:31,880 or any of these Dish makes sense because there are stocks went down about eight 1257 01:30:31,880 --> 01:30:36,319 percent that day when that news broke yeah, Dish and t Mobile went up 1258 01:30:36,319 --> 01:30:40,279 about eight percent. So Dish I think is the and they're and they're saying 1259 01:30:40,359 --> 01:30:44,039 Dish is the main partner that they're looking for. So I don't know. 1260 01:30:44,159 --> 01:30:47,119 I think it's gonna hurt Verizon is if you make a deal that they have 1261 01:30:47,159 --> 01:30:51,720 to get the contract. Yea team, and who knows. Maybe Amazon's working 1262 01:30:51,720 --> 01:30:54,880 on in their own phone, like the Google phone, it's gonna be the 1263 01:30:54,880 --> 01:30:57,520 Amazon phone, and that's what they're working on in the back offices too. 1264 01:30:57,680 --> 01:31:00,880 So they just get these towers leased and an event at release that the new 1265 01:31:00,880 --> 01:31:05,000 phone and it's all Amazon. I kind of got that feeling that they're looking 1266 01:31:05,079 --> 01:31:10,840 for to have an Amazon wireless service, right, Yeah, exactly. They're 1267 01:31:10,840 --> 01:31:14,439 trying to partner with somebody to make this happen. Yeah, but I'm saying 1268 01:31:14,479 --> 01:31:16,159 like, yeah, I think they are, but you all yeah exactly, 1269 01:31:16,159 --> 01:31:19,039 like Todd saying too, you have to lease those towers out. But they're 1270 01:31:19,079 --> 01:31:24,079 making a lot make new ones. No, you're making new towers. Well, 1271 01:31:24,119 --> 01:31:26,520 there's not a lot of new, but they are no location wise, 1272 01:31:26,520 --> 01:31:29,920 there's not. So they've been accelerating the building of them. That's what Crowncastle 1273 01:31:29,960 --> 01:31:32,960 does and that's what American tower do. They they're building they're smaller now, 1274 01:31:33,000 --> 01:31:35,920 they're smaller towers, and this is for five G and they've been doing it 1275 01:31:35,960 --> 01:31:39,800 for the last five a few years since five g's been announced. You have 1276 01:31:39,880 --> 01:31:42,760 to build I forgot the exact number, but you got to build a ton 1277 01:31:42,760 --> 01:31:45,560 of them in a city for five G to work efficiently right right now, 1278 01:31:45,600 --> 01:31:48,840 so they can build these and then new companies coming and lease them. So 1279 01:31:48,880 --> 01:31:51,680 maybe that's what Amazon is trying to get. Well, five GS a lot 1280 01:31:51,720 --> 01:31:58,199 different than four G because you need to be like indirect almost eight of it 1281 01:31:58,279 --> 01:32:00,479 for really, and that's why the I got to build a lot of these 1282 01:32:00,479 --> 01:32:02,479 towers, but they're smaller towers, like I mean Mike, which is not 1283 01:32:02,520 --> 01:32:05,600 as good for the smaller towns. And well, and then they're running into 1284 01:32:05,640 --> 01:32:09,880 this. The issues they're running into is that people are scared, like the 1285 01:32:09,920 --> 01:32:12,560 wavelengths are going to go through them and stuff like that. So that's why 1286 01:32:12,600 --> 01:32:15,520 they're running into issues city councils and all that. But in order for five 1287 01:32:15,600 --> 01:32:18,319 D to work officially, they have to keep building these and maybe that's what 1288 01:32:18,359 --> 01:32:21,439 Amazon is trying to get in on, is these new towers that are going 1289 01:32:21,479 --> 01:32:26,920 up. They're trying to lease more so than a etenz in Verizon. Cool, 1290 01:32:27,479 --> 01:32:30,039 you guys, you're both gen Z guys, right, No, No, 1291 01:32:30,039 --> 01:32:32,720 he's millennial late nineties. He's actually like in between millennial and gen Z. 1292 01:32:32,800 --> 01:32:35,520 He does you're born You're born in the last mid nineties, right, 1293 01:32:35,600 --> 01:32:40,680 nine year? What do youse? He technically does not think I'm a millennial. 1294 01:32:41,119 --> 01:32:43,920 I'm like on the yally decide, I've looked this up. You can 1295 01:32:44,000 --> 01:32:47,560 decide, so really you can like he's a He's the one year that's in 1296 01:32:47,600 --> 01:32:51,039 between, so I don't have to be a baby talking about now I'm ninety 1297 01:32:51,039 --> 01:32:56,479 four. That's what I am. Is closer to millennial're talking about the millennials. 1298 01:32:56,479 --> 01:32:58,520 They had a report on the gen Z. I thought you guys were 1299 01:32:58,520 --> 01:33:00,760 both gen Z. Probably on the cusp. I'm on the cusp. But 1300 01:33:00,840 --> 01:33:09,359 I guess most common investment for gen Z ears is bitcoin or Tesla. Yeah, 1301 01:33:09,680 --> 01:33:13,800 Tesla, I guarantee you is right there. I look at and I 1302 01:33:13,840 --> 01:33:16,319 thought that makes sense. Actually, if you're young, you've got time, 1303 01:33:16,760 --> 01:33:20,239 Um, you want to you wanted to grow as fast as possible. It 1304 01:33:20,319 --> 01:33:25,600 makes a lot of sense. But also it just our entire things technology we 1305 01:33:25,720 --> 01:33:29,479 do Zel, we do MO, so we can actually understand an idea of 1306 01:33:29,520 --> 01:33:33,159 currency being digital, where a lot of the older people that currency is physical. 1307 01:33:33,199 --> 01:33:35,600 It's like, okay, that's because it's always been that way, which 1308 01:33:35,640 --> 01:33:39,279 is fine. But paper was physical too. But now we have the word 1309 01:33:39,319 --> 01:33:43,359 processors. So things evolve and we have to realize that they do that. 1310 01:33:43,600 --> 01:33:46,039 And I think gen zs are just more Yeah, it's not so crazy to 1311 01:33:46,159 --> 01:33:49,800 the gen z Yeah, of having a digital currency. Home prectures may have 1312 01:33:50,199 --> 01:33:57,680 stopped going down may uh the case Shiller, which this monthly housing report reports 1313 01:33:57,680 --> 01:34:03,279 a small increase in February and grew in March, and they're suggesting the decline 1314 01:34:03,319 --> 01:34:08,600 in home prices that begin in June of twenty two maybe coming to an end. 1315 01:34:09,359 --> 01:34:13,760 And I would think to myself, well, that's the shortest smallest decline 1316 01:34:14,319 --> 01:34:15,760 ever. That'd be pretty cool, I would. I'd be happy if I 1317 01:34:15,840 --> 01:34:18,920 hit that right. Yes, I got mine on the down on the downtrend. 1318 01:34:19,159 --> 01:34:23,800 Yeah, I know, it is interesting to think we really, from 1319 01:34:23,840 --> 01:34:26,680 a CPI point of view, thought there'd be a lot more downside in real 1320 01:34:26,760 --> 01:34:30,600 estate than there has been. And Todd, you've pointed out before that it's 1321 01:34:30,640 --> 01:34:31,880 because there's just no inventory. Well, it's part of it too. I 1322 01:34:31,880 --> 01:34:34,520 mean, like like if inflation goes down to two and a half percent and 1323 01:34:34,560 --> 01:34:39,079 the Fed starts raising rates now and they don't need to raise them again, 1324 01:34:39,319 --> 01:34:43,079 they're gonna start lowering them sooner than we think. So then that's going to 1325 01:34:43,239 --> 01:34:46,560 increase housing prices as rates drop, But it also is going to increase inventory, 1326 01:34:46,800 --> 01:34:50,920 which could just level prices too, because that's why we are seeing elevated 1327 01:34:50,920 --> 01:34:55,439 prices continues to be sustained. If there's no inventory. The minute rates go 1328 01:34:55,520 --> 01:34:59,560 down, that's open to what's going to happen is going to be these national 1329 01:34:59,600 --> 01:35:01,279 home build These are gonna have a ton of inventory that they've been building that 1330 01:35:01,319 --> 01:35:03,840 people are just dropping out of the contracts. They're gonna have these open, 1331 01:35:03,880 --> 01:35:06,640 so they're gonna be trying to sell those when that time comes. Yeah, 1332 01:35:06,680 --> 01:35:11,159 I mean, I think they're they're actually on the other side of that now 1333 01:35:11,359 --> 01:35:15,760 they're able to they don't have too many locked up anymore that they're waiting on. 1334 01:35:15,039 --> 01:35:18,720 A lot of them are buying down interest rates to make it down a 1335 01:35:18,720 --> 01:35:24,560 lot cheaper for them, So that's how the builder is actually buying down so 1336 01:35:24,640 --> 01:35:27,960 the builder builders say, hey, we have five percent like like you did 1337 01:35:27,960 --> 01:35:30,520 with cars, right, five percent finance teams this week only you know, 1338 01:35:30,680 --> 01:35:34,279 yeah, that's what they're doing that to make it more And one of the 1339 01:35:34,279 --> 01:35:40,920 first rental um rental out like you that build to rent is coming to two 1340 01:35:40,920 --> 01:35:44,079 Sonnets. It's just coming. But there is there. There are a couple 1341 01:35:44,079 --> 01:35:47,680 of those neighborhoods already here on Sabino Canyon Road. There's a couple of builder 1342 01:35:47,760 --> 01:35:51,119 rent hoods over there. My wife pointed out when I told her the first 1343 01:35:51,119 --> 01:35:55,479 one is coming, she should know it's not it's I think it's single family 1344 01:35:55,520 --> 01:36:00,439 residents. Is that these are single family units over there? Um maybe pointed 1345 01:36:00,439 --> 01:36:01,800 out to me that I was wrong, and which is what I got it 1346 01:36:01,840 --> 01:36:04,520 from Sava. Hey, you know, maybe got all my wife of forty 1347 01:36:04,520 --> 01:36:10,880 one years, she knows more than Saba. We appreciate you joining us. 1348 01:36:10,880 --> 01:36:14,239 We're coming to the end of the show once again, our thanks to Ron 1349 01:36:14,319 --> 01:36:16,720 Lens. He brings a lot to the table. If you'd like to ask 1350 01:36:16,840 --> 01:36:20,439 Ron a question, give us a call. We can get that question to 1351 01:36:20,600 --> 01:36:24,760 him and he can He'll give you an answer and we'll shoot it back to 1352 01:36:24,840 --> 01:36:28,720 you. What we all want to be here is happy, yes, and 1353 01:36:28,760 --> 01:36:31,800 of course we all strive to be healthy. But at the end of the 1354 01:36:31,840 --> 01:36:36,600 day is Greenberg Financial. We're trying to be profitable. Next week