New Year’s Eve Edition of The Money Matters Show!

WEBVTT100:00:08.039 --> 00:00:11.160Good morning, Welcome to The MoneyMatter Show. This is Dave Sherwood.200:00:11.160 --> 00:00:15.679I'm here with Todd Glick. I'mhere with Sebastian Borsini. The Greenbergs are300:00:16.920 --> 00:00:22.640vacationing. I think Dean had putin a bid for a cruise before the400:00:22.679 --> 00:00:27.160pandemic, if I remember correctly,if I'm remembering this right, and this500:00:27.239 --> 00:00:30.519is the product of that. Soanyway, it's a family cruise to celebrate600:00:30.559 --> 00:00:35.399a wife's important birthday. We won'ttalk about what birthday that is, but700:00:35.479 --> 00:00:39.960I think it's important that we onthis New Year's Eve edition of The Money800:00:40.000 --> 00:00:45.399Matter Show, wish everyone a happyNew Year. Guys got big plans,900:00:45.679 --> 00:00:47.960you know, you know what areyou doing? Are you gonna go rip1000:00:47.960 --> 00:00:50.799it up? Don Oh? Yeah? A couple of twenty two year olds1100:00:50.840 --> 00:00:54.159here for sure? Are you Sebastian, I'm gonna go rip it up in1200:00:54.159 --> 00:00:56.679Sedona? You are? Are yougoing to Sedona? Yep? Right off1300:00:56.719 --> 00:00:59.840for the show. I had somefriends that were in, uh, sed1400:01:00.119 --> 00:01:03.399it for Christmas and it's a beautifulplace. Yeah. I was hoping to1500:01:03.399 --> 00:01:06.120get some snow, but I don't. I didn't see it in the forecast.1600:01:06.159 --> 00:01:10.519So but they have weather very similarto Tushine, it's not. Many1700:01:10.519 --> 00:01:14.519people don't like New Year's Eve,but it's one of my truly favorite holidays1800:01:14.519 --> 00:01:17.000of the year. It is,and why is that me? It's the1900:01:17.079 --> 00:01:19.840time where you get to reflect onall the work you put in, and2000:01:19.879 --> 00:01:23.799for people who put in a lotof work in their lives, you get2100:01:23.840 --> 00:01:26.799a little emotional when you look backon all the things you put in and2200:01:26.840 --> 00:01:29.840all the things that you sacrificed,and you look at, oh, now2300:01:29.840 --> 00:01:33.439you're what you're looking to do inthe next year. That's what I love2400:01:33.480 --> 00:01:36.920about New Year's Eve? Is it? Kind of It puts the end chapter2500:01:37.000 --> 00:01:40.519in n piece, the last paragraphon the previous chapter, and it puts2600:01:40.519 --> 00:01:42.239a title on the new chapter forthe new year. So I just think2700:01:42.239 --> 00:01:47.519it's a really good way to just, you know, have that renewal as2800:01:47.560 --> 00:01:51.439the spirit needs, podcast kind ofdeflex, leave the baggage in twenty twenty2900:01:51.480 --> 00:01:53.799three and move on right. Yep, Yeah, we would like twenty twenty3000:01:53.799 --> 00:01:59.079three not to end. From astock market point of view, it's been3100:01:59.239 --> 00:02:01.599wonderful. Do you are you anew Year's resolution? Guy? I am3200:02:01.599 --> 00:02:06.079a new Year's resolution. I haven'tthought about my New Year's resolution just yet,3300:02:06.120 --> 00:02:07.639though, to be honest with you, I thought about it several years3400:02:07.680 --> 00:02:10.639ago. I put a lot ofthought into this and realized that there really3500:02:10.759 --> 00:02:15.560wasn't anything I could improve. SoI decided that I would spend my time3600:02:15.000 --> 00:02:19.199improving other people. Yeah, that'snot worked out real well. It is3700:02:19.439 --> 00:02:27.120a great narcissis right, and mynew year. It's kind of like you3800:02:27.120 --> 00:02:29.840asked me back in March what I'vebeen giving up for lent and I said,3900:02:29.879 --> 00:02:34.240being nice, be nice. I'mgiving up being nice, so you4000:02:34.240 --> 00:02:38.199guys do anything big. It wasthe first show since Christmas, A nice4100:02:38.199 --> 00:02:39.680street day weekend. Yeah, youknow, a great time with family.4200:02:39.759 --> 00:02:44.159That's always the most important part ofit. Fun gifts, fun to see4300:02:44.199 --> 00:02:46.840other people get their gifts. Andyou were out in California. I was4400:02:46.879 --> 00:02:49.639out in California with a couple ofgrandkids. That's always kind of fun.4500:02:49.680 --> 00:02:53.439And I've been meaning to ask youhow many how many electric vehicles did you4600:02:53.439 --> 00:02:58.520counsel on your way up there?That didn't see many this time that I4700:02:58.599 --> 00:03:00.439kept. You know, I've beensaying, if that's been increasing each time?4800:03:00.479 --> 00:03:04.680This time, I probably saw three, I think three or four out4900:03:04.680 --> 00:03:07.240there in the middle of nowhere.Uh. And again, if you're out5000:03:07.240 --> 00:03:10.599there between HeLa band and Youma,you're committed, You're you're doing this,5100:03:10.680 --> 00:03:14.599You're doing this thing right, youknow. So I saw an ev one5200:03:14.639 --> 00:03:19.039time at Tesla in Pine Top.Okay, it's just like you're in it.5300:03:19.159 --> 00:03:23.840Yeah. Our our client who actuallyis probably responsible for me owning an5400:03:23.840 --> 00:03:28.400ev is ron, it took hisup to Pine Top and was able to5500:03:28.479 --> 00:03:30.680charge it up there. But yeah, it's it's a it's a it's just5600:03:30.719 --> 00:03:36.759a different world. It's we didnot take the ev over to Orange County.5700:03:37.159 --> 00:03:39.080It's just a hassle at this point. It's just a hassle. And5800:03:39.120 --> 00:03:42.719I think when they come up withone with a little bit longer range,5900:03:44.159 --> 00:03:47.039I think it'll make a big difference. Toyota is talking about solid state batteries6000:03:47.039 --> 00:03:51.199and we're starting to hear that fromsome of the other manufacturers now. And6100:03:51.520 --> 00:03:55.639maybe the lithium ion technology that's beenpopular is going to go away. Maybe6200:03:55.680 --> 00:03:59.159not. Well, we'll talk more. We'll talk. Okay, guess some6300:03:59.199 --> 00:04:01.000stuff coming. Okay, you gotsome stuff. We always do. All6400:04:01.080 --> 00:04:05.039I know is that that I've beenaround a few years and if I'm up6500:04:05.080 --> 00:04:09.520at midnight on New Year's Eve.It's because I had to go to bathroom.6600:04:10.159 --> 00:04:15.479Okay, that's that simple. It'sit's just that simple. I was6700:04:15.040 --> 00:04:19.439one thing about my trip to California. My daughter has two King Trials Spaniels,6800:04:19.480 --> 00:04:25.240two dogs, and I was remindedwhen we were out on a walk6900:04:25.920 --> 00:04:30.560that the dogs have a sense ofsmell that's ten thousand times as strong as7000:04:30.560 --> 00:04:33.319ours. And and I'm a curiousguy, right, so I'm thinking,7100:04:33.759 --> 00:04:36.639who came up? Who came upwith this? How do they know that?7200:04:38.199 --> 00:04:41.839What dogs? What dog ratted theother dogs? Out right? I7300:04:41.839 --> 00:04:44.199mean? What? Well? Whatis even ten thousand times the sense of7400:04:44.240 --> 00:04:46.519our smell equate to like that?What's that means? That? Feel like?7500:04:46.639 --> 00:04:49.439I mean, do you take likea steak and then move it back7600:04:49.519 --> 00:04:55.399like a half an inches in casesmell? Now, how do they know7700:04:55.480 --> 00:04:58.079that? You know? And likeso many things in life, how do7800:04:58.199 --> 00:05:00.680they know? This doesn't seem likesomething you could on to fu It's hard7900:05:00.680 --> 00:05:02.759to understand how they would know it. And by the way, I do8000:05:02.800 --> 00:05:05.879have a cold. If I soundlike I probably have the radio boy actually8100:05:05.920 --> 00:05:10.519have a radio voice now, butI have a cold. So I apologize8200:05:10.560 --> 00:05:13.759for any sneezing coffee and sniffling.You know what else? You got great8300:05:13.759 --> 00:05:15.519face for radio? Yeah, Ido have a great face for radio.8400:05:15.680 --> 00:05:19.519I do think dogs can really theyhave an ability. I mean, if8500:05:19.519 --> 00:05:24.079you had a test, you shouldbe able to pretty easily find it out8600:05:24.879 --> 00:05:27.839if having the dog goes to onedoor and where there's nothing behind one door,8700:05:27.839 --> 00:05:30.199which one does it go to?It can tell which one and then8800:05:30.199 --> 00:05:32.560you can start doing the distance.I'm actually stupid enough that I googled it8900:05:32.600 --> 00:05:36.680all right, try to figure thisout because I'm a curious guy right now.9000:05:36.879 --> 00:05:40.120I couldn't come up with it.I just Google didn't have an answer.9100:05:40.199 --> 00:05:43.439I know it. All I could. All I kept hearing is is9200:05:43.480 --> 00:05:47.279ten thousand times as strong as ours, sensitive as ours? Be true,9300:05:47.279 --> 00:05:50.160though, because those dogs, Imean, it'll be at your door before9400:05:50.199 --> 00:05:54.639you even turn the corner into yourneighborhood. Dogs can do some amazing things.9500:05:54.639 --> 00:06:00.639When they talk about dogs that canactually smell medical issues, emotions,9600:06:00.680 --> 00:06:02.920right, yeah, yeah, yeah. And I have a client who has9700:06:02.959 --> 00:06:09.600a child who attends to have seizuresin the middle of the night. And9800:06:09.639 --> 00:06:12.879if you're sleeping soundly and your child'shaving a seizure, that's not a good9900:06:12.879 --> 00:06:16.800thing. This dog is trained torecognize when the child is going to have10000:06:16.839 --> 00:06:20.600a seizure. Then it starts barkingyeah wow, like wow, that's just10100:06:21.040 --> 00:06:25.199it's mind bogging. So there's nodoubt in my mind that their sense of10200:06:25.240 --> 00:06:29.079smell is dramatically beyond ours. I'mjust just curious as to who comes up10300:06:29.079 --> 00:06:30.279with this. But they don't understandtomorrow. I can tell you that,10400:06:30.439 --> 00:06:34.519no, why not. There's noconcept of no, no concept of tomorrow10500:06:34.639 --> 00:06:39.000for a dog. It's just today. I like it. I like it.10600:06:39.120 --> 00:06:43.879How about this market, it justcontinues to go. On Friday,10700:06:43.920 --> 00:06:46.199it kind of stalled out a littlebit. Looks like there was maybe going10800:06:46.279 --> 00:06:50.120to be some year end profit taking, but a way it went again.10900:06:50.319 --> 00:06:55.920Volume this week only fifty percent ofnormal volume. I kind of expected that,11000:06:56.199 --> 00:07:00.000but we did have the S andP five hundred eke out the nine11100:07:00.240 --> 00:07:02.720straight week, ninth straight week,first time in twenty years. I was11200:07:02.720 --> 00:07:04.759looking at the charms just like asa ridiculous it looks like a tree.11300:07:05.079 --> 00:07:10.120Nine consecutive weeks. Now. Inall fairness, a couple of those weeks11400:07:10.160 --> 00:07:13.639were like last week. Last week, they SMP was up fourteen points,11500:07:13.720 --> 00:07:17.240and there was a week in thatnine week string when it was up I11600:07:17.240 --> 00:07:20.279remember it was up two points.Yeah, there was one week. But11700:07:20.480 --> 00:07:30.199it has been an extraordinary year forparticularly the magnificent seven stocks and you all11800:07:30.240 --> 00:07:32.399know who they are, the Apples, the Facebook's, the Google so delivered11900:07:32.399 --> 00:07:36.160an average return of one hundred andthirteen percent, Okay, more than doubles12000:07:36.240 --> 00:07:40.839and and really that for that's justthe average turn of the group that's of12100:07:40.879 --> 00:07:44.720that was seven. Yeah, andthat's that's that's what made this year so12200:07:44.839 --> 00:07:48.040difficult from a money management point ofview because it really skewed all of the12300:07:48.040 --> 00:07:51.639averages, Dave. I mean thatreturn of one hundred and thirteen percent is12400:07:51.720 --> 00:07:55.920double what the Nasdaq one hundred is, which we know is probably one of12500:07:55.920 --> 00:07:59.279the most faulatile ETFs you can bein correct. And then on top of12600:07:59.319 --> 00:08:03.759that, it's that Magnificent seven deliveredto return four point five times the S12700:08:03.800 --> 00:08:07.040and P five hundred. So whenyou look at the fact that you have12800:08:07.160 --> 00:08:11.959the Magnificent seven over four and ahalf times in performance in the S and12900:08:11.959 --> 00:08:15.480P five hundred, it makes sensewhen you start looking at the RSP,13000:08:15.720 --> 00:08:18.959seeing that it's only up twelve percent, year to date, when the S13100:08:18.000 --> 00:08:22.639and P five hundreds up twenty fourpercent, RSP being equal weighted, where13200:08:22.639 --> 00:08:26.279all five hundred stocks are given thesame weight of eleven point eight percent.13300:08:26.439 --> 00:08:31.159And I did a quick thumbnail thingwith saying, if you had a balanced13400:08:31.159 --> 00:08:37.399account. Now, balanced account traditionallyis considered sixty percent equities forty percent fixed13500:08:37.399 --> 00:08:43.240income. Right, So if youhad in that balanced account of forty percent13600:08:43.240 --> 00:08:46.000fixed income, I think it's fairto say that fixed income this year,13700:08:46.039 --> 00:08:52.159even high quality bonds probably performed zero. You got paid five percent. They13800:08:52.159 --> 00:08:54.440probably went down five percent because theinterest rates went up, right. Yeah,13900:08:54.519 --> 00:08:58.879maybe maybe it made one exact sameYou probably made your coupon, right,14000:08:58.919 --> 00:09:03.600maybe one or two percent in thesixty percent, you probably have half14100:09:03.679 --> 00:09:09.919of that in value and value stocksagain dramatically underperformed up three point five percent14200:09:09.000 --> 00:09:16.159for the year. Yeah, andthe equal weighted up eleven point eight percent14300:09:16.360 --> 00:09:20.000for the year. So if youif you meld all that together, you14400:09:20.080 --> 00:09:24.759probably have a return of about fivepercent. Less management fees that you're paying,14500:09:24.320 --> 00:09:26.759which will run one one and ahalf percent, you make three and14600:09:26.759 --> 00:09:31.000a half four percent. And Deersaid, I'm not happy my guy's not14700:09:31.080 --> 00:09:35.279doing a good job. Well,your guy may be doing a great job.14800:09:35.480 --> 00:09:39.200It's just if you were not inthose seven stocks, you're not going14900:09:39.200 --> 00:09:43.360to see the rates of return thatyou're seeing on TV. Well, it's15000:09:43.799 --> 00:09:46.519well, go do the disclosure call. Have we got the disclaimer before?15100:09:46.559 --> 00:09:50.600I forget? Pause here, tendto forget. The show is sponsored by15200:09:50.600 --> 00:09:54.639the Greenbriak Financial Group and you canlisten on seven ninety Cannisty or iHeartRadio.15300:09:54.200 --> 00:09:58.759The show discusses different investment products andstrategies. Every product and strategy have some15400:10:00.080 --> 00:10:03.000type of inherent risk, and westrongly encourage our listeners to probably understand those15500:10:03.120 --> 00:10:07.320risks to determine whether to buy,sell, or hold. The show has15600:10:07.360 --> 00:10:09.440been on air for over thirty years. The Greenbrig Financial Group is registered with15700:10:09.480 --> 00:10:13.200the SEC and a member of FINRAand SIPIK. Visit our website at Greenbriok15800:10:13.240 --> 00:10:18.679Financial dot com for some more information. Very good, well done, buddy,15900:10:18.720 --> 00:10:20.840Well done. It was the secondtime I did that one. Good.16000:10:20.919 --> 00:10:24.360Yeah. Yeah. You know whenthe FED does start lowering interest rates,16100:10:24.360 --> 00:10:26.200and that's the environment where and we'renot in the environment where they're actually16200:10:26.320 --> 00:10:31.519lowering rates yet, but we're inthe environment where they've they've pretty much made16300:10:31.559 --> 00:10:35.919it clear that they're done. They'redone, and I think we saw the16400:10:35.600 --> 00:10:43.399personal consumption Expenditure index a week agodown around two percent, which was their16500:10:43.440 --> 00:10:48.919target. So I think FED chiefpoll is thinking they're probably done. And16600:10:48.000 --> 00:10:52.440he actually said in a recent pressconference that he could be lowering them sometime16700:10:52.519 --> 00:10:56.879next week, next week, nextyear. It could be actually lowering industrate.16800:10:58.000 --> 00:11:01.639So you add to that that,you're additional Santa Claus rally, you16900:11:01.639 --> 00:11:05.720know. And we've got most ofthe major indices at fifty two weeks,17000:11:05.000 --> 00:11:09.240a few of them at all timeheights. And it's understandable we are in17100:11:09.320 --> 00:11:16.159a Goldilock scenario here where everything isjust right. We've got interest rates of17200:11:16.519 --> 00:11:22.519declining, oil prices declining, inflationdeclining, and yet the economy continues to17300:11:22.559 --> 00:11:28.120grow. It doesn't get any betterthan that. With that said, valuations17400:11:30.399 --> 00:11:33.440don't really matter right now because it'sgo, go go, and there's a17500:11:33.480 --> 00:11:39.600lot of fomo out there fear ofmissing out. Fomo. Don't get caught17600:11:39.639 --> 00:11:43.679up in the fomo. If you'reallocated as a balanced investor, continue that17700:11:43.919 --> 00:11:48.799allocation. There's a tendency when themarkets are like this to say man,17800:11:48.879 --> 00:11:54.600I want to be more aggressive?Why am I so conservative? And there's17900:11:54.960 --> 00:11:58.799when the market's going down, there'sa tendency to say I want to be18000:11:58.879 --> 00:12:03.080more conservative? Why am I soaggressive? And the answer is you in18100:12:03.120 --> 00:12:09.639a neutral environment, sat down withthe financial advisor hopefully and came up with18200:12:09.879 --> 00:12:16.080the perfect plan for you. Don'tchange that based upon market conditions. Yeah,18300:12:16.120 --> 00:12:18.480and I think it's human nature.Todd, Oh, it's definitely human18400:12:18.559 --> 00:12:22.120nature. And talking about like theequal weight or five hundred, you can18500:12:22.159 --> 00:12:24.879look at it and say, well, it's not up that much and you're18600:12:24.919 --> 00:12:30.600still exposed to those magnificent seven,you're just not exposed to them in the18700:12:30.600 --> 00:12:33.159way that you are in the Sand P five hundred, the regular weighted.18800:12:33.600 --> 00:12:37.440And that's a big thing to knowis when you have a larger exposure18900:12:37.519 --> 00:12:39.960to those volatility stocks, yes yourreturn can be higher, but so is19000:12:41.000 --> 00:12:45.519your volatility. So when you createa portfolio for someone based on their risk19100:12:45.519 --> 00:12:48.759tolerance, our job as money managersis to match the volatility. Not only19200:12:48.879 --> 00:12:52.559it's not really about the return thatwe care about, it's the volatility of19300:12:52.639 --> 00:12:58.279the portfolio that the client's in andhow they can stomach the volatility because we19400:12:58.360 --> 00:13:01.679know stocks will return over time.Yeah, it's more about volatility. So19500:13:01.720 --> 00:13:05.919they don't sell at bottoms and buyit tops. You bring up a really19600:13:05.960 --> 00:13:13.360good point. Equities will outperform otherfinancial assets over time period. They always19700:13:13.399 --> 00:13:18.559have, they likely always will.The stock market is based upon GDP.19800:13:20.360 --> 00:13:24.039GDP is going to be higher aslong as there's more people, and more19900:13:24.080 --> 00:13:28.720and more people come to this country, the GDP has to be higher,20000:13:28.080 --> 00:13:33.159even if they're less productive than theones before. It's going to make GDP20100:13:33.320 --> 00:13:37.159go higher. It's going to makestock prices go higher. Stock prices will20200:13:37.159 --> 00:13:41.559go higher over time. You wantthe absolute best return, you can possibly20300:13:41.559 --> 00:13:46.679get one hundred percent in the marketpedal to the metal quality stocks. Right.20400:13:48.159 --> 00:13:52.639But most people cannot tolerate that volatility. So the reason that you have20500:13:52.759 --> 00:13:56.960fixed income is so you can sleepat night, because I've said many times20600:13:58.000 --> 00:14:01.480on this show that we sleep atnight when you sleep at night. Right.20700:14:01.639 --> 00:14:03.919We talked about on the show,I think a couple of times,20800:14:03.919 --> 00:14:07.320something called a sharp ratio. It'sa little into the weeds of financial stuff,20900:14:07.360 --> 00:14:11.639but a sharp ratio is really areturn weighted based on its volatility,21000:14:11.840 --> 00:14:16.600and so you can see how riskya return was. If we're looking at21100:14:16.600 --> 00:14:18.679a bitcoin return this year of onehundred and fifty percent, you can say21200:14:18.720 --> 00:14:22.240that's great in all, but that'sa different return than you're looking at a21300:14:22.320 --> 00:14:24.159Navidia one hundred and fifty percent,because then the VIDIA, even though it21400:14:24.159 --> 00:14:26.600has a lot of volatility, doesn'thave the same volatility that has in a21500:14:26.600 --> 00:14:31.679bitcoin, right, and so thelevel of volatility that was associated with the21600:14:31.720 --> 00:14:35.279return is as well as important asnot just a return, especially when you're21700:14:35.320 --> 00:14:39.919looking at it from a financial planningpoint of view. I'm really pleased that21800:14:39.320 --> 00:14:45.399I have had no calls this pastweek from people who are disappointed with their21900:14:45.440 --> 00:14:50.159double digit return. I've had nocalls at all, And I can understand22000:14:50.240 --> 00:14:54.840why when you're looking at the newsseeing the S and P f twenty four22100:14:54.919 --> 00:14:58.919percent, and then as I gotforty three percent and you're up thirteen while,22200:14:58.960 --> 00:15:03.759you say what's wong with this?But I'm pleased that we've had none22300:15:03.799 --> 00:15:09.799of those calls because we don't wantthose calls. We set the expectations beforehand22400:15:09.799 --> 00:15:13.200so we don't get those calls.Right. We tell them that you're not22500:15:13.240 --> 00:15:15.360going to be one hundred percent inthe S and P five hundred, You're22600:15:15.360 --> 00:15:16.639not going to be one hundred percentNastak stocks. When you look at the22700:15:16.720 --> 00:15:20.159NAS deck up forty three percent,you say, man, I want to22800:15:20.200 --> 00:15:22.799have everything in there. Well,how about last year when it was down22900:15:22.879 --> 00:15:26.399thirty percent, Right, you wantedto have nothing in there. I had23000:15:26.440 --> 00:15:30.320a client in January sell out ofall of this death. They get me23100:15:30.360 --> 00:15:33.799out and then take This can beeasily seen because when you have a Tesla23200:15:33.879 --> 00:15:37.720up this year, right, onehundred and one percent, Well, twenty23300:15:37.759 --> 00:15:41.399twenty two it's down sixty five percent, So you're you're just half of what23400:15:41.440 --> 00:15:43.000you lost in twenty twenty two,you know, and a lot of those23500:15:43.039 --> 00:15:46.799textalks lost a lot of value intwenty twenty two. So even the run23600:15:46.879 --> 00:15:50.600up we've seen has really just gotthem back to that valuation that they were23700:15:50.679 --> 00:15:54.200at. You want as much exposureto the market as you can have as23800:15:54.240 --> 00:15:58.879you can tolerate, right, andright now people are starting to feel like,23900:15:58.960 --> 00:16:02.279well maybe I can tolerate eight more. That's not a good way to24000:16:02.279 --> 00:16:06.519think, well, especially because it'slike people are getting that four four and24100:16:06.559 --> 00:16:08.960a half on their money save money, right, and then they're seeing these24200:16:10.039 --> 00:16:12.919rates of return that's when that FOMOstarts, because you're seeing, Okay,24300:16:14.399 --> 00:16:18.679I'm missing out on ten, twelve, thirteen percent of potential return because I'm24400:16:18.720 --> 00:16:21.759in this four percent money market,right, And then you need to remember24500:16:21.799 --> 00:16:25.000that just three years ago you wouldbe clawing at a risk for you four24600:16:25.039 --> 00:16:27.159percent. You'd be thrilled. You'dbe thrilled, absolutely, But now that24700:16:27.240 --> 00:16:30.360you see other returns, you maynot want to be because of FOMO.24800:16:30.519 --> 00:16:36.000And that's an incorrect way of thinking. Yeah, and it's just we can't24900:16:36.080 --> 00:16:41.639emphasize enough. Whatever your allocation,your your comfort allocation is, please stay25000:16:41.679 --> 00:16:45.519with it. And we also toldpeople about rates that they were going to25100:16:45.600 --> 00:16:48.600drop and they needed to take advantageof high rates. And it was so25200:16:48.639 --> 00:16:51.360funny when I looked back on theyear performance of that ten year yield.25300:16:51.799 --> 00:16:55.679It finished, the yield finished exactlywhere it started the year. You told25400:16:55.720 --> 00:16:57.639me that on Friday, I can'tthat's unbelievable, isn't it? And you25500:16:57.639 --> 00:17:00.440said, a couple of weeks ago, you're like, the ten year dropped25600:17:00.440 --> 00:17:04.720into the threes for the first timesince like two months. Yeah, it's25700:17:04.759 --> 00:17:10.400spiked up so quickly that your limit, your window for opportunity was so small25800:17:10.440 --> 00:17:12.519you have two three months to reallyget the best rates possible. Who knows25900:17:12.519 --> 00:17:15.880if we'll ever see those rates again. It's possible, you know, things26000:17:15.920 --> 00:17:18.680can bounce back, But for themost part, the bond rally we've seen26100:17:18.720 --> 00:17:22.119over the last two months, thetwo month game that we've seen is actually26200:17:22.160 --> 00:17:26.440the biggest bond rally that we've seengoing back to when they've started in nineteen26300:17:26.519 --> 00:17:33.039ninety tracking it. So it's unprecedentedthe level of return bonds got over the26400:17:33.079 --> 00:17:36.839last time. Right. Something elsethat we saw for the first time since26500:17:36.880 --> 00:17:41.279nineteen ninety three was S and Pfive hundred drew in around forty billion dollars26600:17:41.279 --> 00:17:45.079and inflows in December. That wasthe biggest track or the biggest monthly hall26700:17:45.200 --> 00:17:48.920since it began trading in nineteen ninetythree. So to your Fomo points,26800:17:48.000 --> 00:17:51.759you know, did we see thathere at the end? Is everybody trying26900:17:51.759 --> 00:17:53.799to chase that Santa Claus rally?Right now? We have such an unusual27000:17:53.920 --> 00:18:00.359business where when we put things onfail, no one comes in. When27100:18:00.400 --> 00:18:03.279we put things at the highest pricethat they've ever been, we have lines,27200:18:03.440 --> 00:18:07.359right, it's just it's backwards.Yeah, And the spy drew in27300:18:07.440 --> 00:18:11.799around forty billion inflows in December,and it is the biggest hall since nineteen27400:18:11.880 --> 00:18:15.079ninety three. But the biggest thingto look at is the biggest asset class27500:18:15.480 --> 00:18:21.519inflow this entire year was cash andthat heart obviously had a lot to do27600:18:21.559 --> 00:18:26.200with money market, but also peoplebeing super conservative through this entire twenty twenty27700:18:26.240 --> 00:18:29.599three. And it's so interesting goinginto twenty twenty three, there was not27800:18:29.680 --> 00:18:33.880a lot of high expectations and soall stocks really had to do was beat27900:18:33.920 --> 00:18:37.200those expectations and we're going to behigher. And then they did. They28000:18:37.200 --> 00:18:41.319exceeded those expectations by a lot,and we saw markets run up. Now28100:18:41.400 --> 00:18:45.799and going into twenty twenty four,we kind of have the opposite where valuations,28200:18:45.839 --> 00:18:48.400we have high expectations going into twentytwenty four, and if stocks don't28300:18:48.400 --> 00:18:52.359meet those high expectations, it's goingto fall, and there's very low probability28400:18:52.359 --> 00:18:56.799they're going to exceed those expectations whenpeople forget the full effect of the FED28500:18:56.880 --> 00:19:00.279rate hiking cycle will truly be feltin twenty twenty four, because it's a28600:19:00.319 --> 00:19:04.720lag effect to that point, likecurrent pricing suggests fight a six rate cuts28700:19:04.720 --> 00:19:08.240for you know, twenty or oftwenty five based on points each time in28800:19:08.240 --> 00:19:11.640twenty twenty four. What happens ifwe only see one or two? What28900:19:11.680 --> 00:19:14.599happens if we see two or three. Yeah, you really have to have29000:19:14.680 --> 00:19:18.559this perfect scenario play out for itall to go up. But as we29100:19:18.640 --> 00:19:22.079send history bows well for the marketsto be positive next year, it does.29200:19:22.160 --> 00:19:25.640You have one thing with the presidentialelection. I think the average return29300:19:25.680 --> 00:19:29.920is four percent leading up one yearbefore the election. Not only that,29400:19:30.440 --> 00:19:32.759we'll talk about a little later.When when an SMP hits a new all29500:19:32.799 --> 00:19:34.319time high, it hasn't done itwell, hasn't closed at a new all29600:19:34.359 --> 00:19:38.079time high. Yet when it doesthat, markets bow really well. For29700:19:38.359 --> 00:19:45.480one year forward returns after that gotin what about two points of all time29800:19:45.519 --> 00:19:47.880closing high. I mean, Dave, you know this in your business,29900:19:47.960 --> 00:19:49.960and it doesn't always happen this way, but making new all time highs and30000:19:51.039 --> 00:19:53.359markets are usually a good thing.Oh absolutely, you know it's not ut30100:19:53.960 --> 00:19:56.759it's not a bad indicator. Butno, no, it's not, it's30200:19:56.799 --> 00:20:00.680not. I think what you haveto be careful of here is the there's30300:20:00.720 --> 00:20:07.359just been an awful lot of overenthusiasm and I mean to go back in30400:20:07.400 --> 00:20:15.400the day when the Greenspan when Greenspancame out and called the stock market rally30500:20:15.480 --> 00:20:21.400irrational exuberance, and it went onfor a while after that, a few30600:20:21.400 --> 00:20:25.519months after that, and then itsold off. We're in a position here30700:20:25.559 --> 00:20:30.640where we could use the selloff.And I'm not talking about we don't really30800:20:30.680 --> 00:20:36.160anticipate in a period where the Fedis easing monetary policy, we don't expect30900:20:36.160 --> 00:20:41.240a big downward move, but itcertainly would be reasonable to expect a five31000:20:41.279 --> 00:20:45.519to ten percent pullback now, andespecially in the Big Seven. Use the31100:20:45.519 --> 00:20:48.079Magnificent Seven, and they have laggedover the last thirty days. They have31200:20:48.160 --> 00:20:52.960actually started to lag the value Imean, but their valuations are absolutely skewing31300:20:52.960 --> 00:20:56.400the entire markets picture. And we'vetalked about it on the show. When31400:20:56.400 --> 00:21:00.319you take those seven out, themarket is not it's really historic valuations in31500:21:00.400 --> 00:21:03.640terms of pe ratios. So it'snot nothing to be concerned about when you31600:21:03.640 --> 00:21:07.480take the Magnificent Seven out, Butwhen you put them in, we're way31700:21:07.519 --> 00:21:11.880above historic normals. So how doyou play that game is a tough one.31800:21:12.160 --> 00:21:17.160We as we look at twenty twentyfour, we are more and more31900:21:17.200 --> 00:21:22.680convinced that it's going to be ayear where the Magnificent seven is not performing32000:21:23.000 --> 00:21:27.440well and that value stocks, whichhad lagged all this year, will start32100:21:27.480 --> 00:21:33.880to catch up. We've actually beenincreasing our exposure to the value sector and32200:21:33.039 --> 00:21:37.200reducing our exposure to the growth sector. And as you think about AI,32300:21:37.359 --> 00:21:41.359and that's really why the Magnificent sevenhave the real totally this year was you32400:21:41.400 --> 00:21:45.880know, it's not revenue generating yet. Now it's likely not going to be32500:21:45.960 --> 00:21:49.240revenue generating in twenty four. Sowhen that starts to come out through light32600:21:49.319 --> 00:21:53.279in those earnings reports, in thoseearnings calls, and investors realize that we're32700:21:53.319 --> 00:21:56.440still a couple of years away fromthis ever really adding any money to the32800:21:56.480 --> 00:22:03.839bottom line, that also might skewexpectations, because that's why these valuations sky32900:22:03.160 --> 00:22:07.000I think the best example of thebest analogy to that are something that's very33000:22:07.039 --> 00:22:12.759similar is the the ev charging stations, those level three, especially the ones33100:22:12.799 --> 00:22:15.359that you want when you're out onthe road. Those are fifty two one33200:22:15.400 --> 00:22:22.359hundred thousand dollars apiece. How manytwenty twenty five thirty dollars charges do you33300:22:22.400 --> 00:22:26.039have to get before you're even justback to what you have invested? So33400:22:26.480 --> 00:22:30.960Initially it's all outlay and very littleincome. And that's what we have with33500:22:32.039 --> 00:22:36.319AI. It's a tremendous amount ofoutlay as you've developed, and every now33600:22:36.359 --> 00:22:40.599and then you'll see something AIS uprunning this right, But from a revenue33700:22:40.680 --> 00:22:44.799generating point of view, Todd,you're absolutely spot on. AI is not33800:22:45.000 --> 00:22:48.279generating a lot of revenue, andyet the stocks have gone up, have33900:22:48.359 --> 00:22:53.000doubled, whereas then you still havesectors that are very attractive even with run34000:22:53.079 --> 00:22:57.519ups. And we've talked about homebuilders, how new homebuilders really don't have a34100:22:57.559 --> 00:23:02.480lot to go against them with ratescoming down, more demand, there's really34200:23:02.480 --> 00:23:04.839no inventory coming online because even thoughsix and a half percent is a drop,34300:23:06.319 --> 00:23:07.480no one's getting rid of their threeor four when it's at six and34400:23:07.519 --> 00:23:12.160a half. So from new homebuilders, they're not real they're not really34500:23:12.200 --> 00:23:17.279overvalued in terms of historic valuations forthat industry. It seems like that could34600:23:17.279 --> 00:23:21.440be a good place. Healthcare hasbeen known as an underinvested space in twenty34700:23:21.480 --> 00:23:25.880twenty three, and defense stocks,I mean, it's it's been a weird34800:23:25.960 --> 00:23:27.640year for defense. Obviously, ithad a couple of wars and that brought34900:23:27.680 --> 00:23:33.200the whole sector higher. But thenRaytheon had bad issues, Lockheed Martin had35000:23:33.240 --> 00:23:37.400an issue with a couple of things. Boeing seems like they just had an35100:23:37.440 --> 00:23:41.160issue that came out as well aboutone of their newest So it's weird how35200:23:41.200 --> 00:23:44.720you're going to see in twenty four. But defense could be another interesting sector.35300:23:44.880 --> 00:23:47.759Yeah, there are there, andagain, most of those stocks are35400:23:47.839 --> 00:23:52.400value stocks, which is that areathat's really lagged this past year. Three35500:23:52.440 --> 00:24:00.000point five percent increase in the valuesector in twenty twenty three versus twenty five35600:24:00.000 --> 00:24:03.720four for the S and P fortythree for the Nasdaq show. That's there's35700:24:03.759 --> 00:24:07.400a lot of stocks. If youtake the five hundred stocks in the S35800:24:07.440 --> 00:24:10.680and P five hundred, you've gotseven of them that are just on fire,35900:24:10.759 --> 00:24:12.000and you've got four hundred and ninetythree of them, then they're doing36000:24:12.039 --> 00:24:17.880okay. Right, So we appreciateyou joining us on this New Year's Eve36100:24:18.359 --> 00:24:22.400version, New Year's Eve twenty twentythree, the New Year's e version of36200:24:22.400 --> 00:24:25.960the Money Matter Show, And we'llbe back right after this break. Thanks36300:24:25.960 --> 00:24:34.240again for joining us, say it'sonly a man. Welcome back to the36400:24:34.240 --> 00:24:37.039Money Matter Show. My name isTodd Lick. I'm here with Sebastian Born36500:24:37.160 --> 00:24:41.799seen me and David Sherwood. Thegreen Birds are out of the office as36600:24:41.799 --> 00:24:45.039they are on a vacation. Butwe had a fun week this week with36700:24:45.240 --> 00:24:49.079very low volatility, so as muchfun as you can in those type of36800:24:49.079 --> 00:24:52.200weeks. The doll was up pointeight percent, s and P was up36900:24:52.200 --> 00:24:56.640point three, Naw's Doc up pointone, Russell down zero point one,37000:24:56.960 --> 00:25:00.960and equate It up point five.But really, let's talk about the year37100:25:00.279 --> 00:25:03.519so far. The Dow, well, not so far. This is the37200:25:03.640 --> 00:25:07.839that's it. Is it official?It's official. The Dow was up thirteen37300:25:07.839 --> 00:25:10.519point seven percent, the S andP was up twenty four point two,37400:25:10.920 --> 00:25:14.960NASDAK was up forty three point four, the Russell two thousand, small caps37500:25:15.039 --> 00:25:18.400up fifteen point one, and equalWeight It up eleven point eight. Let's37600:25:18.440 --> 00:25:21.799let's run through some of those numbersreal quick. The first one that pops37700:25:21.799 --> 00:25:23.799out to me is Russell two thousand. I've heard many pundits on the TV37800:25:25.200 --> 00:25:30.680shows talking about how undervalued the smallcaps have been, but I've also heard37900:25:30.680 --> 00:25:33.000other people say the quality of thesesmall cap companies are not as that they38000:25:33.160 --> 00:25:37.559historically been because of all the moneythat was printed in twenty twenty and some38100:25:37.599 --> 00:25:41.720of these zombie companies that are embeddedin those Russell two thousands. So I'm38200:25:41.720 --> 00:25:45.039curious your thoughts. Do you thinkthere could be a return of these small38300:25:45.079 --> 00:25:48.559caps or is it truly that theyshould be valued where they are because of38400:25:49.160 --> 00:25:52.920just not high quality businesses. Yeah, generally they don't lead. Generally,38500:25:52.960 --> 00:25:56.240the Russell doesn't lead, it follows. And so I when I see a38600:25:56.240 --> 00:26:00.200an asdac out forty three point,I love to I'd love to have a38700:26:00.359 --> 00:26:04.960period, maybe a quarter where theMagnificent seven doesn't do anything, so we38800:26:06.000 --> 00:26:10.359could actually get a look at whatreally is going on here. So that38900:26:10.359 --> 00:26:15.440would be really really nice. Thething that I look at when I see39000:26:15.440 --> 00:26:18.480that is is that the the Sand P five hundred and the nasdak are39100:26:18.599 --> 00:26:26.279way out performing every other index.Those two indices are heavily weighted in the39200:26:26.319 --> 00:26:30.839Magnificent seven. So that's that's andso we want to see and I'm thinking39300:26:30.880 --> 00:26:36.480we're going to get a better lookin twenty twenty four with the Magnificent seven.39400:26:37.039 --> 00:26:38.599I mean you can literally just seeit right, equal weighted at twelve39500:26:38.799 --> 00:26:44.079S and P at twenty four.That means the magnificent seven accounted for fifty39600:26:44.799 --> 00:26:49.160Yeah, it's insane, it's it'sjust not realistic. I mean you can't.39700:26:49.279 --> 00:26:52.480You can't as an investor look atthe S and P five hundred,39800:26:52.680 --> 00:27:00.720which is historically a really good gaugeof value and gleaning anything from it in39900:27:00.799 --> 00:27:07.079twenty twenty three because it was soheavily skewed towards those seven big textile And40000:27:07.079 --> 00:27:08.759I think it's tough to use thedoll either because of only thirty stocks.40100:27:08.960 --> 00:27:12.000It's only thirty stocks, so itleaves you with really the equal weight to40200:27:12.200 --> 00:27:17.880SMP five hundred is about all years, and that's for twenty twenty three.40300:27:18.039 --> 00:27:22.680That was the best barometer mark itup about twelve percent for the and that's40400:27:22.680 --> 00:27:26.920how it felt. Yes, yes, it didn't feel like a forty three40500:27:26.000 --> 00:27:29.920percent year, as the Nasdaq saying, it didn't feel like a twenty four40600:27:29.960 --> 00:27:32.720percent year, but an equal wayto twelve. It did feel like that,40700:27:33.000 --> 00:27:37.400and something that for a lot ofpeople, I'll say this and they'll40800:27:37.400 --> 00:27:40.000say, oh, wow, thatwas in that was this year. The40900:27:40.039 --> 00:27:42.400bank failures back in March, right, it feels so long ago, almost41000:27:42.400 --> 00:27:45.960feels like it was a regional bankcrisis. Right, it does. It41100:27:45.960 --> 00:27:48.279feels like an another year, butit must have been a couple of years41200:27:48.319 --> 00:27:51.559ago, right, But it wasthis year and we knew that. I41300:27:51.559 --> 00:27:53.519mean, that was one of thebig worries in March, where oh,41400:27:53.519 --> 00:27:56.960we're going to have a repeat.And then in two thousand and eight when41500:27:57.000 --> 00:28:00.759the first banks failed, it wassix months later that next banks failed,41600:28:00.799 --> 00:28:03.359and then all that stuff happened.So we were worried about March of what41700:28:03.400 --> 00:28:06.880happens in September, what happens inOctober? Did more stuff start happening?41800:28:07.319 --> 00:28:10.200We saw the Federal Reserve, youknow, they came in with a lot41900:28:10.200 --> 00:28:12.160of action. They created two newtools. I won't go into them because42000:28:12.160 --> 00:28:17.680they're very complicated, but it basicallyallows these regional banks to have more collateral42100:28:17.759 --> 00:28:21.279and so they don't have liquidity issuesnow. That helped sure them up and42200:28:21.359 --> 00:28:26.400people have somewhat had a resurgence andtrust in these regional stocks. But the42300:28:26.440 --> 00:28:29.880real winner through all of that wasJP Morgan and then some of the other42400:28:29.920 --> 00:28:33.119big national banks. Yes, theyhad a huge inflow of cash because people42500:28:33.160 --> 00:28:37.079just didn't have that trust in thoseregional banks anymore, and they wanted that42600:28:37.160 --> 00:28:41.680security with the national banks JP Morgandid have a pretty decent year as well.42700:28:41.839 --> 00:28:44.640I don't know if it was justbecause of that, but in terms42800:28:44.680 --> 00:28:48.279of the national banks getting almost completelyswallowing up the regional banks, that was42900:28:48.319 --> 00:28:52.799a really interesting story that some mayforget happened this year. And then the43000:28:52.880 --> 00:28:57.680last extreme months or so, theregional bank ETF has just exploded higher,43100:28:57.759 --> 00:29:02.480yes, which tells me that that'sthat's kind of kind of gone away.43200:29:02.519 --> 00:29:07.119It's kind of like I was atthe gym Thursday night, and I go43300:29:07.200 --> 00:29:08.640to the gym when he gets cold, and to me, cold is anything43400:29:08.720 --> 00:29:11.880under eady, you know, underthe gym quite a bit in the winter.43500:29:14.680 --> 00:29:18.559And the treadmills are right in frontof the CNN. I wouldn't watch43600:29:18.640 --> 00:29:22.240CNN otherwise, but it's right there, and I call it, you know,43700:29:22.279 --> 00:29:23.960it's the Turner News Network t nT. I call it the Trump43800:29:25.519 --> 00:29:30.200News Network. And if I ifI'm watching CNN and everything is Trump,43900:29:30.279 --> 00:29:33.240Trump, Trump, which it wasThursday night, everything in the world's good,44000:29:33.480 --> 00:29:37.200right, I mean, there's nothingthey're talking about though. The war44100:29:37.359 --> 00:29:41.880is the two wars are are whatthey are, and I guess the Ukraine44200:29:41.880 --> 00:29:44.319War must be over because I haven'theard a word about it in about a44300:29:44.359 --> 00:29:48.640month two months. Maybe. Isn'tthat crazy how that's gone from from the44400:29:48.640 --> 00:29:53.079front page of the paper to nobody'seven talking about it. And from Putin's44500:29:53.119 --> 00:29:56.519point of view, that's as goodas it gets, it seems to me.44600:29:57.000 --> 00:30:00.519Yeah. And well, when Deanwas, you know, a couple44700:30:00.559 --> 00:30:03.240of weeks ago, he said,where's all this liquidity coming from? Where's44800:30:03.240 --> 00:30:06.960all this cash coming from? Wellthere's two places. One we know the44900:30:07.000 --> 00:30:10.680inflows of cash was the biggest itever was. And well in terms of45000:30:10.680 --> 00:30:12.680asset classes it was big at thisyear, So that's where the most money45100:30:12.759 --> 00:30:15.240is. There's still a lot ofmoney in the safe money that is available45200:30:15.240 --> 00:30:19.480to be deployed into these markets ifinvestors decide to do so. When we45300:30:19.519 --> 00:30:23.440talked a little bit about that,FOMO and so, Also the issue is45400:30:23.559 --> 00:30:29.200Federal Reserve hasn't been rolling off itsbalance sheet like it's supposed to when it45500:30:29.200 --> 00:30:32.880there's contutative tightening. What they're actuallydoing is they're buying, and that's what45600:30:33.039 --> 00:30:36.079they're giving all this money to thoseregional banks to help them sure up that45700:30:36.200 --> 00:30:38.480increase their balance sheet. So ina time when they're supposed to be you45800:30:38.559 --> 00:30:42.759know, restrictive and tightening on theeconomy. They've actually been easy to help45900:30:42.799 --> 00:30:47.759the regional banks come back online.So it's kind of been skewing this entire46000:30:47.920 --> 00:30:51.880quantitative tightening process the way it's supposedto go. Well, if you think46100:30:51.920 --> 00:30:56.400about twenty twenty two with the themarket, the S and P five hundred46200:30:56.400 --> 00:30:59.880down twenty two percent, and intwenty twenty three up twenty four percent.46300:31:00.079 --> 00:31:03.440Essentially money just came back to wherewhere it was, right. Yeah,46400:31:03.599 --> 00:31:07.559that good point, so that we'rekind of gone nowhere. Oil oil was46500:31:07.599 --> 00:31:10.200down two dollars on the week toseventy one fifty. Turns out it was46600:31:10.240 --> 00:31:14.680down two dollars on the year.Also, oil down eleven percent of the46700:31:14.759 --> 00:31:18.519year. I had I had twodollars and I was doing the monthly.46800:31:18.720 --> 00:31:21.279I think it was six. Ihad six percent for the year. But46900:31:22.000 --> 00:31:25.039either way, it was down forthe first time since twenty twenty. Yeah,47000:31:25.119 --> 00:31:27.920gold had gold had a good yearbecause of the dollar week. Actually47100:31:29.079 --> 00:31:33.799two things. Gold it's interesting goalwas hanging around eighteen hundred dollars and gold47200:31:33.799 --> 00:31:36.720loves war, and it jumped.It loves war and it jumped up to47300:31:36.759 --> 00:31:41.240two thousand when when Israel attacked Gaza. Also, well, I jumped in47400:31:41.279 --> 00:31:44.680twenty two, I guess, Yeah, it was in around eighteen hundred and47500:31:44.759 --> 00:31:48.640kind of fading into oblivion really becausethe dollar was so strong because of higher47600:31:48.640 --> 00:31:53.279interest rates. So gold had jumpedthat from eighteen hundred to two thousand just47700:31:53.359 --> 00:32:00.480based on that. The Israeli attackof Gaza, and then dollar started to47800:32:00.519 --> 00:32:05.759decline because interest rates are declining,they tend to move like that, and47900:32:05.920 --> 00:32:09.279gold moves inversely to the dollar,so it got another little boost there.48000:32:09.400 --> 00:32:14.599So gold had a gold had adecent year. The treasury, they continue48100:32:14.640 --> 00:32:19.119that inversion continues. Just you can'tbreak it. I don't know what what's48200:32:19.160 --> 00:32:22.000ever going to break that, Todd, but that inversion again is a predictor48300:32:22.279 --> 00:32:28.680of recession, and it's been invertednow and inverted meaning that the yield on48400:32:28.799 --> 00:32:32.640short term treasuries is higher than theyield on long term treasuries. Yeah.48500:32:34.480 --> 00:32:38.279I kind of still believe that twentytwenty four is going to be a really48600:32:38.319 --> 00:32:45.680hard year because of the that's thefull effects of the tightening cycle. I48700:32:45.680 --> 00:32:49.920think the thing the thing that wouldwould would I can't disagree with what you're48800:32:49.920 --> 00:32:52.599saying on a fundamental point of view. But keep in mind interest rates are48900:32:52.640 --> 00:32:57.079going to be coming down, itseems like, and it is an election49000:32:57.240 --> 00:33:00.920year, so anything that they cando, anything they can positive for the49100:33:00.960 --> 00:33:04.640economy to make things look better,they're going to do it. So that49200:33:04.839 --> 00:33:08.000may offset what you're saying, whichis fundamentally true. Yeah, no,49300:33:08.759 --> 00:33:14.119that's the whole thing is how doyou you know there's one side of fundamentals49400:33:14.160 --> 00:33:17.480and one side there's exuberance, andexuberance can definitely be more important for the49500:33:17.519 --> 00:33:22.119markets. And you know, marketsstay irrational longer than you stay liquids.49600:33:22.200 --> 00:33:24.240So it's not something I would hangmy hat on for sure. But in49700:33:24.319 --> 00:33:28.359terms of fundamentals and you start lookingat earnings reports, you would tend to49800:33:28.400 --> 00:33:30.880expect what's going to happen next yearbecause of interest rates. I mean,49900:33:30.920 --> 00:33:35.960it has to eventually hurt profits.It's just it'll be interesting to see next50000:33:35.960 --> 00:33:39.799week. January is historically we knowabout one thing we know for sure about50100:33:39.880 --> 00:33:45.279January. It is the month inwhich more money flows into the stock market50200:33:45.319 --> 00:33:49.079than any other month, right,And the reason for that is because everyone,50300:33:49.680 --> 00:33:53.240even the most wealthy amongst US fundstheir four to one k now you50400:33:53.319 --> 00:33:57.319may fund your entire four oh onek for the year in one paycheck.50500:33:58.000 --> 00:34:00.480There are people out there that arefortunate have to do that, But that50600:34:00.640 --> 00:34:05.400money all goes in. Whether you'remaking a million dollars a year or making50700:34:05.400 --> 00:34:07.920ten thousand dollars a year, allof those four oh one k contributions,50800:34:08.000 --> 00:34:14.639it never gets higher than January.So that comes in. Now, that50900:34:14.679 --> 00:34:16.960doesn't mean that the mutual fund companiesthat are receiving that money have to put51000:34:16.960 --> 00:34:20.800it to work right away. Well. Also, it's like, you know,51100:34:20.840 --> 00:34:23.480when you look at why does Decemberand January always seem to be the51200:34:23.480 --> 00:34:27.960best months for the stocks. It'sjust because it's the end of the year,51300:34:28.039 --> 00:34:30.119right. I Mean, when youhave the calendar year ending in the51400:34:30.159 --> 00:34:32.400first year, the first week thatyou can put your new paychecks in because51500:34:32.400 --> 00:34:37.960of regulations is January. Then yeah, that's gonna be the one when twenty51600:34:37.000 --> 00:34:42.079five percent of the profits happened inDecember because that's when Christmas is sure,51700:34:42.119 --> 00:34:45.159that's that's why you're going to haveit so much. So you put Christmas51800:34:45.159 --> 00:34:47.039in March, we're gonna have acompletely different story. Yeah, you put51900:34:47.199 --> 00:34:52.119Black Friday in April, we're gonnahave a different story. So I when52000:34:52.119 --> 00:34:57.320people talk about those season overturns,it's definitely true because of the stories and52100:34:57.360 --> 00:35:00.000events that are around those times.Now, it has nothing to do with52200:35:00.119 --> 00:35:02.360calendar. And we all know thatthe month that is the most likely to52300:35:02.400 --> 00:35:08.079close higher statistically is December. Numbertwo is January, and we've said on52400:35:08.119 --> 00:35:12.840the show November one through the endof January is the best ninety day period52500:35:12.880 --> 00:35:16.599of the year, responsible for roughlyfifty percent of all stock market gains for52600:35:16.639 --> 00:35:22.400the entire year. So it'd beinteresting to see the new year. Now,52700:35:22.400 --> 00:35:25.960there was not a lot of sellingin December because it's a lot of52800:35:25.960 --> 00:35:29.840people had gains for the year.You don't want to take those gains until52900:35:29.920 --> 00:35:31.800January. So it'll be interesting tosee what happens next week if there's a53000:35:31.800 --> 00:35:36.800little profit taking maybe to start offthe year. I've got a feeling that53100:35:36.920 --> 00:35:39.039back. I got a feeling aswe get into late January, we're gonna53200:35:39.039 --> 00:35:43.519see a little bit we'll pull back, especially you think some profit taking the53300:35:43.559 --> 00:35:46.360Magnificent seven. Yeah, absolutely,Again, we thank you for joining us.53400:35:46.599 --> 00:35:51.360Segment two is coming to an end. We'll be back. We'll be53500:35:51.440 --> 00:35:57.719back with the third segment. Rightat this break. Thanks again, say53600:35:57.760 --> 00:36:05.519it's only a welcome back to theMoney Matter Show. I'm here with Dave53700:36:05.559 --> 00:36:08.880Sherwood, Todd Glick. My nameis Sebastian Borsini. Well, we had53800:36:08.880 --> 00:36:13.119a fun week. We talked aboutMagnificent Seven a lot because they were the53900:36:13.119 --> 00:36:16.239story of the year. The darnlingof the Magnificent seven is no doubt.54000:36:16.239 --> 00:36:21.960In Navidia this year's market, Darlingwas up two hundred and thirty nine percent54100:36:22.000 --> 00:36:24.360for the year and now trades atfour hundred ninety five dollars per share.54200:36:24.679 --> 00:36:28.880It was all because of the AIcraze. For people who don't know chat54300:36:28.920 --> 00:36:32.239gbt, which really started the wholeAI craze runs on semi conductors that are54400:36:32.239 --> 00:36:37.320produced by Navidia and a lot ofother companies that are starting to create these54500:36:37.360 --> 00:36:42.960similar chat gbt products or other generativeAI. They need those type of semiconductors54600:36:43.000 --> 00:36:46.719and so with a backlog of ordersand a lack of supply, the video's54700:36:46.719 --> 00:36:51.760stock went through the roof because theywere positioned exactly where they needed to be54800:36:51.880 --> 00:36:54.440when this praise came out, theywere it was absolutely fantastic. Yeah,54900:36:54.480 --> 00:36:59.159and we know other stocks like AMDnot in the MAGNIFICSM seven. But you55000:36:59.159 --> 00:37:01.639know another popular they're all semi conductwhich really just had a killer year this55100:37:01.719 --> 00:37:07.320year. Meta the second probably highestreturning one of the mag seven, was55200:37:07.400 --> 00:37:09.199up one hundred and ninety four percentfor the year now trades a three hundred55300:37:09.199 --> 00:37:12.840and fifty four dollars per share.The story of this one was really the55400:37:12.880 --> 00:37:15.840reduction in business costs from the previousyear. Investors couldn't stand all the money55500:37:15.840 --> 00:37:22.800that Zuckerberger's spending on the aim onthe metaverse. And as they did have55600:37:22.880 --> 00:37:27.000those reduction in business costs because ofa whole bunch of layoffs and their presence55700:37:27.000 --> 00:37:29.480a little bit of presents in theAI space, it helped lift the stock55800:37:29.559 --> 00:37:34.119back trading around near all time highspeckwhere they were around twenty twenty amazing.55900:37:34.239 --> 00:37:37.440I mean we when it was downaround one hundred and twenty dollars to share,56000:37:37.440 --> 00:37:40.679it looked like it was going tozero, right, I mean that56100:37:40.679 --> 00:37:45.800it seems like they had taken awrong, wrong direction. They had taken56200:37:45.800 --> 00:37:49.039a wrong turn. And it's alwayseasy when you look at a stock that's56300:37:49.039 --> 00:37:52.239going down, how do they evenmake money? Yeah? And then when56400:37:52.559 --> 00:37:54.800it's up higher, you're like ofcourse that's how they Yeah, yeah,56500:37:54.840 --> 00:38:00.559I know that Zuckerberg went all inon the AI thing, and uh there56600:38:00.599 --> 00:38:05.119was a lot of doubt about whetheror not maybe he had lost his touch56700:38:05.159 --> 00:38:07.440and maybe made a wrong term,you know, speaking of losing touch when56800:38:07.519 --> 00:38:09.960when you're when you're away, youhave time to think. Right now,56900:38:09.960 --> 00:38:15.679I was, I was thinking,we all think that we're irreplaceable. A57000:38:15.719 --> 00:38:20.639lot of us think we're irreplaceable.Right this place couldn't run without me,57100:38:20.760 --> 00:38:22.400you know. I think the egowants to believe that and wants to believe57200:38:22.440 --> 00:38:25.119that right now. I was thinking, well, well, working out in57300:38:25.320 --> 00:38:30.440over in California, there's some timeon my hands. I came up with57400:38:30.800 --> 00:38:37.039what might be the best example everof how none of us are irreplaceable.57500:38:37.239 --> 00:38:43.639And I think that example is SteveJobs Team. Steve Jobs was the face57600:38:43.679 --> 00:38:46.719of Apple. He was the brainsof Apple. He was the creative genius57700:38:46.760 --> 00:38:51.920of Apple. Without Steve Jobs,this company is just an Apple with a57800:38:51.920 --> 00:38:55.239bite out of it, right,and here comes Tim Cook, client preserved57900:38:55.840 --> 00:39:00.400Tim Cook, who has just teedit up and hit it out of the58000:39:00.480 --> 00:39:05.199park. I mean the company,I e. You could argue that the58100:39:05.239 --> 00:39:13.000company today is dramatically better because SteveJobs died. Yeah, you wouldn't have58200:39:13.000 --> 00:39:15.400as much spending in R and D, right, I mean, isn't it58300:39:15.400 --> 00:39:17.599amazing? I mean it's just amazing. I mean, if you ever think58400:39:17.599 --> 00:39:21.679you're irreplaceable, just think about SteveJohns. Well, I've watched a really58500:39:21.719 --> 00:39:25.400fascinating documentary this last week. Itwas docuseries on Netflix called super Pumped about58600:39:25.400 --> 00:39:29.599the creation of Uber and the founderof Uber and how his whole story and58700:39:29.599 --> 00:39:32.079how eventually the board asked him toresign. He had to resign off the58800:39:32.119 --> 00:39:37.239board. The whole story really andtells how he was a genius. I58900:39:37.239 --> 00:39:39.199mean, to bring Uber to fruition, you had to fight the cab oh59000:39:39.239 --> 00:39:42.880my goodness, you know, theunions, everything that he had to get59100:39:42.920 --> 00:39:45.480through, and he did it.But he had a he had He's a59200:39:45.599 --> 00:39:47.800kind of an egomaniac, to behonest, and you kind of see it59300:39:47.840 --> 00:39:51.079through the show. Kind of required, don't you think. But that's my59400:39:51.159 --> 00:39:52.599point is at the end of it, when you get to a certain level59500:39:52.599 --> 00:39:58.000of business, it matters how youare seeing, how you're viewed, what59600:39:58.039 --> 00:40:01.960your reputation is, and when youlook at someone who's running a billion,59700:40:02.079 --> 00:40:06.719you know, one hundred billion dollarcompany. You don't want that person to59800:40:06.760 --> 00:40:08.480be looking bad in the public eye. Sure, and so they had the59900:40:08.480 --> 00:40:14.440force and to resign because he wasjust causing so much problems for Uber that60000:40:14.480 --> 00:40:17.000the Uber itself could cease to exist, even though it was one of the60100:40:17.000 --> 00:40:22.000greatest ideas of our generation. Yes, and it's all because of that that60200:40:22.119 --> 00:40:25.239super egomaniac is so right for solong. Eventually he thinks he can do60300:40:25.280 --> 00:40:29.760nothing wrong. And you need thatsomeone that comes in humbles And I think60400:40:29.840 --> 00:40:32.159that, like you said, TimCook, probably is that person. Yeah.60500:40:32.199 --> 00:40:36.599He did just done a spectacular jobwith that company, you know.60600:40:36.639 --> 00:40:39.360And over in California there was alot of talk about the vaccines and you60700:40:39.360 --> 00:40:42.880know, flu vaccines, COVID vaccines, that sort of thing. You know,60800:40:42.880 --> 00:40:45.880they're a little I heard the massman dig just came back in hospitals60900:40:45.880 --> 00:40:50.679too. Where pretty sure in NewYork. Really, I hope that doesn't61000:40:50.679 --> 00:40:53.079spread it because it's kind of silly. Yeah. At this point, I61100:40:53.119 --> 00:40:57.760mean, we've all either had COVIDor had of COVID. I think eighty61200:40:57.800 --> 00:41:02.280percent had some. Yeah, andyou've known people had to go remind me61300:41:02.320 --> 00:41:06.079of my daughter asked me if Iget a flu shot, and I said,61400:41:06.159 --> 00:41:08.239yes, I get a flu shot, you know, And here's why.61500:41:08.639 --> 00:41:12.760Twenty years ago I saw a study. I can tell you this,61600:41:13.280 --> 00:41:15.000what I can tell you what you'reabout to say it helps? Well,61700:41:15.000 --> 00:41:17.719well, why don't I say itthere better than you're telling me. You61800:41:17.760 --> 00:41:21.360said it on the show before.I have said it on the show before.61900:41:22.199 --> 00:41:25.280But but I've got some renewed information. It's not the old information,62000:41:25.480 --> 00:41:30.880right, So twenty years ago it'sold information. Twenty years ago, I62100:41:30.239 --> 00:41:36.960saw a report from the mail clienticthat flu shot reduces chance of sudden cardiac62200:41:37.079 --> 00:41:39.000death by fifty percent. Right,you know, so I get a flu62300:41:39.039 --> 00:41:42.800shot every year. I don't careabout the flu. I'm fine with the62400:41:42.800 --> 00:41:45.119flu I can have. I canhandle flu. Yeah yeah, I mean62500:41:45.239 --> 00:41:47.440even if I get the flu,I can handle it, right, I62600:41:47.440 --> 00:41:52.239mean, you know I know howto handle the flu. On November thirtieth,62700:41:52.320 --> 00:41:57.280though of this year, a reportin Scientific Reports showed a twenty six62800:41:57.400 --> 00:42:01.840percent decreased risk of heart attacks inpeople who received a flu vaccine and a62900:42:01.920 --> 00:42:08.239thirty three percent reduction in cardiovascular death. So again, for whatever reason,63000:42:09.039 --> 00:42:14.719the flu shot is effective and it'sbeen documented and sure. I asked you63100:42:14.719 --> 00:42:17.159two weeks ago if you would takeOzmpics because Ozmpic does the same thing.63200:42:19.360 --> 00:42:22.559I forget the Olympic. A flushot, No, it's not the food63300:42:22.599 --> 00:42:27.880shot, but it decreases the riskof cardiovascular attack or whatever you just said63400:42:27.960 --> 00:42:35.719by thirteen percent. I was justI asked you that it also takes twenty63500:42:35.719 --> 00:42:39.360five percent of my bone and muscle. Yeah, right right, I got63600:42:39.400 --> 00:42:44.119about the twenty five thousand brain cellsthat flu vaccine takes away from you.63700:42:44.519 --> 00:42:47.519That is maybe, yeah, Andmaybe they've got a little trans transmitter in63800:42:47.559 --> 00:42:51.559there, just being injected into myeye. I think I think I see63900:42:51.599 --> 00:42:53.599some greed die in those veins sothe government can track me, right,64000:42:53.719 --> 00:42:57.920Yeah, hear these people say,I don't I don't want to. I64100:42:57.960 --> 00:43:00.840don't want the government trucking me.Well, then you to put yourself one64200:43:00.880 --> 00:43:04.079away, you know, I meaneveryone of us is walking around with it.64300:43:04.199 --> 00:43:07.119Well, like I don't trust thegovernment. I'm like, what what64400:43:07.239 --> 00:43:09.840dollar do you use? Because they'reall backed by the government. Speaking of64500:43:09.880 --> 00:43:14.639which, that's a good segue.Been hearing a lot. You know,64600:43:15.159 --> 00:43:19.880scams are just pervasive right now,just pervasive, especially around the holidays.64700:43:19.920 --> 00:43:22.480You've got a package at the postoffice, you know, click here to64800:43:22.960 --> 00:43:29.119get it delivered. Here's the here'sthe authentication code you requested. I mean,64900:43:29.239 --> 00:43:31.320just on and on and on.One of the latest scams and I65000:43:31.320 --> 00:43:37.159get a call about this almost everyweek is that. And usually it's about65100:43:37.159 --> 00:43:40.159the dollar, right, because theseguys know that if they start talking about65200:43:40.199 --> 00:43:44.039the dollar, because we're all prettynear and dear the dollars, pretty near65300:43:44.039 --> 00:43:45.519and dear to dollars, right,we all kind of like our dollars,65400:43:45.559 --> 00:43:50.039I think us. You start threateningthe dollar, that's going to get some65500:43:50.079 --> 00:43:52.599attention. And all they're trying todo is get you to sign up for65600:43:52.639 --> 00:43:55.840a newsletter, sign up for theirmagazine whatever. The most recent one.65700:43:57.199 --> 00:44:01.280And I heard this last week.Congress has passed and Biden has signed a65800:44:01.360 --> 00:44:07.800bill that replaces our currency with adigital currency. And the guy that called65900:44:07.840 --> 00:44:12.119me said it could happen as soonas the end of the year. This66000:44:12.159 --> 00:44:15.119is about two weeks ago. Itcould happen as soon as the end of66100:44:15.119 --> 00:44:20.480the year. Right. A coupleof problems with that problem. Number one,66200:44:20.639 --> 00:44:23.800it didn't happen. Congress didn't passthe bill, Biden didn't sign the66300:44:23.800 --> 00:44:29.599bill. But even more importantly,the government does not even have a digital66400:44:29.639 --> 00:44:34.920currency into which they could swap thedollar. It doesn't exist. Now the66500:44:35.000 --> 00:44:38.119FED is trying to work on somethingin like a small team, but there's66600:44:38.239 --> 00:44:43.320nothing that has been created. They'retalking about how it might benefit consumers,66700:44:44.079 --> 00:44:46.360how they can do something along theselines. But of course they would say66800:44:46.400 --> 00:44:49.559that, yes, of course.I mean if a surveillance tool, they're66900:44:49.559 --> 00:44:52.480going to say it's it's for thebetterment of humanity. Point is, there67000:44:52.559 --> 00:44:57.800is no digital currency that they're goingto swap your dollar into the time soon,67100:44:58.599 --> 00:45:02.199not any time, prob in mylifetime. So I want you to67200:45:02.440 --> 00:45:07.599when you so many things that ifit looks the least bit suspicious. I67300:45:07.639 --> 00:45:13.800had a gal that has a annuitywith Nationwide and she received a email from67400:45:13.880 --> 00:45:20.199Nationwide saying that she had to providecertain information or her annuity contract would be67500:45:20.239 --> 00:45:23.599canceled. Couldn't And she's eighty eightyears old, right, And fortunately she's67600:45:23.960 --> 00:45:29.559with it to the point of askingthat it didn't bother her. You know,67700:45:30.599 --> 00:45:32.840Dean got an email moment said maybea month ago about me it was67800:45:32.880 --> 00:45:37.880a spam Sebastian, Yes, yes, asking to change direct deposit for my67900:45:37.880 --> 00:45:40.000paycheck, so they're trying to getmy checks sent to them rather than obviously68000:45:40.000 --> 00:45:44.440myself. Yeah, well, here'sthe lookout for the scams, look out68100:45:44.480 --> 00:45:46.159for the fishing. Of course,you always got to look out for the68200:45:46.159 --> 00:45:50.440scams. People are always going totry to take advantage. But that's why68300:45:50.440 --> 00:45:52.840you are with an advisor. Ifyou're not sure, call us up.68400:45:52.079 --> 00:45:58.360Here's a fun fact. Home pricesdoubled in Turkey in Turkey's capital action.68500:45:58.440 --> 00:46:00.159And how did that happen? Yeah, well, actually led the world into68600:46:02.039 --> 00:46:05.519and why would that happen. Alot of people don't realize, Well,68700:46:05.519 --> 00:46:07.000just because the house goes up doesn'tmean anything. It's probably the same value.68800:46:07.000 --> 00:46:12.639Because Turkey's lira was devalued by overhalf in the third quarter, So68900:46:12.760 --> 00:46:15.960you have half devaluation in your currency, you're gonna have a double in pricing69000:46:15.000 --> 00:46:19.679in your homes. So you knowthat's that's one of those headlines that you'll69100:46:19.679 --> 00:46:21.599read and be like, oh,maybe I should be investing in Turkey.69200:46:22.360 --> 00:46:25.760No, you don't want to,do you want to line up for your69300:46:25.800 --> 00:46:30.440for your next house in Turkey.Hey. By the way, Amazon revealed69400:46:30.519 --> 00:46:36.039last week the starting January twenty ninth. Get this advertisements will be incorporated into69500:46:36.079 --> 00:46:38.199Prime Video. Yeah, they mentionedthat about a month ago, and that's69600:46:38.239 --> 00:46:42.480really going to be an interesting newrevenue play for that business. And it69700:46:42.519 --> 00:46:45.000doesn't seem like it. If peopledon't want the ads, I think they69800:46:45.039 --> 00:46:47.039gotta pay an extra four bucks,two dollars and ninety nine cents. I69900:46:47.079 --> 00:46:50.559did it last night. There yougo, two dollars and ninety nine cents.70000:46:50.559 --> 00:46:53.639And I'm thinking pretty soon it's goingto be hard to distinguish my cable70100:46:53.639 --> 00:46:58.360bill from my mortgage. Well,that was always gonna be gonna be pretty70200:46:58.360 --> 00:47:00.239close. It's creeping up on it, of course, you know, coming70300:47:00.320 --> 00:47:04.679up on the outside. The onlydiff's between the cable and the streaming that70400:47:04.719 --> 00:47:07.679will be is the people who wantto choose one thing or the other don't70500:47:07.679 --> 00:47:09.800have to have the entire bundle involved. You can be more all the part70600:47:10.159 --> 00:47:14.119rather than you can. But thenhere's the thing. So you get this70700:47:14.119 --> 00:47:16.320new show that comes on it ison such and such a channel, or70800:47:16.360 --> 00:47:21.960they throw an NFL game on Peacockright like they did last week, and70900:47:22.039 --> 00:47:25.039you don't have Peacock. They getyou with the live sports, that's for71000:47:25.079 --> 00:47:28.880sure. But yeah, I andthat's just all over the place right now,71100:47:28.960 --> 00:47:30.800drop one, get another one.You're going to go right Yeah,71200:47:30.840 --> 00:47:32.920we're coming up on a break,coming to the end of the first hour71300:47:32.960 --> 00:47:36.800of The Money Matter Show. Thanksfor taking time to be with us on71400:47:36.840 --> 00:47:39.960this New Year's Eve, before yougo out and rip it up and before71500:47:39.960 --> 00:47:45.960I go to bed, well beback right after this break. Say it's71600:47:45.000 --> 00:47:55.960only a name. Good morning,Welcome back to the New Year's Eve edition71700:47:57.079 --> 00:47:59.920of The Money Matters Show. I'mdave sure what I'm here with the best71800:48:00.079 --> 00:48:05.440in Borshini and Todd Glick Junr.The green Bergs are traveling and we wish71900:48:05.519 --> 00:48:09.920them well. Dean will be backin this seat two weeks from today.72000:48:10.639 --> 00:48:15.519So this week and next week you'regonna get us the three of us,72100:48:15.000 --> 00:48:19.639the three Musketeers, if you will, And then the green Berks will be72200:48:19.639 --> 00:48:22.280back and we'll be back to afull staff. So for the people who72300:48:22.280 --> 00:48:24.760are just joining us, that willgo through the market and how they finished72400:48:24.760 --> 00:48:28.880the week and the year. Thedoll was up point eight percent on the72500:48:28.880 --> 00:48:32.599week. It's now trading at thirtyseven, six hundred and eighty nine dollars,72600:48:34.239 --> 00:48:37.639well not dollars, technically points yeah, point point yam. For the72700:48:37.679 --> 00:48:39.000year, the doll was up thirteenpoint seven percent. The S and P72800:48:39.119 --> 00:48:43.079five hundred was up point three percenton the week. It now is at72900:48:43.320 --> 00:48:46.960forty seven sixty nine. For theyear, it was up twenty three twenty73000:48:46.960 --> 00:48:52.639four point two percent. The Nasdaqwas up point one percent. Now it73100:48:52.719 --> 00:48:55.960is at fifteen twenty three. TheNASDAK composite. That is, for the73200:48:57.039 --> 00:49:00.440year, it was up forty threepoint four percent, the best year for73300:49:00.480 --> 00:49:05.079the NAZAQ since twenty twenty. Andthen we also talked about the fact that73400:49:05.119 --> 00:49:07.119oil was down on the week.It's had the first annual decline since twenty73500:49:07.159 --> 00:49:13.280twenty. Gold was up on theyear thirteen percent this year, and then73600:49:13.760 --> 00:49:16.719the tenure US interest rate stayed exactlywhere it started the year. I thought73700:49:16.719 --> 00:49:22.480it was interesting to see oil downwith Russia cutting back on productions. How73800:49:22.519 --> 00:49:28.840do Arabia cutting back on production?Two wars going on. You would think73900:49:29.800 --> 00:49:36.199oil would be higher, but Ithink the surprising weakness in the Chinese economy74000:49:36.719 --> 00:49:43.960that continues is weighing on oil.Yeah, that makes sense, and however,74100:49:44.079 --> 00:49:45.519there is a floor. You cansee it every time it gets down74200:49:45.519 --> 00:49:51.360to sixty nine. Volume spikes upbecause the United States is refilling the spr74300:49:51.480 --> 00:49:53.559there, I hope, Well,no, you could. I saw it.74400:49:53.599 --> 00:49:57.800The volume was so high that there'sno way it was a big maker.74500:49:57.840 --> 00:50:00.440I mean, maybe it was anothercountry, but it definitely looks like74600:50:00.480 --> 00:50:01.519they refilled it. And I thinkI saw a report that they made their74700:50:01.519 --> 00:50:06.079first purchase for I mean, Iremember Biden had sold oil in the high74800:50:06.159 --> 00:50:10.880nineties for all the wrong reasons.Okay, never mind why he told it,74900:50:12.239 --> 00:50:15.440but then buying it back under seventyone of the best trades ever,75000:50:15.599 --> 00:50:19.119right, Yeah, And I hopethat they're able to something. You should75100:50:17.840 --> 00:50:22.480find to print the money to dothat, because they need to get that75200:50:22.519 --> 00:50:28.840refilled. It it's like taking yoursavings and then like basically going on a75300:50:28.880 --> 00:50:30.559loan. I mean, it's basicallywhat it is, right I yeah.75400:50:30.679 --> 00:50:34.119But you know, if you sellsomething ninety, are you shorting of stock75500:50:34.199 --> 00:50:36.679seven and buy it back at sixtyseven, that's a pretty good deal.75600:50:36.960 --> 00:50:39.039Well yeah, but if it's yourif you use two reserves, you shouldn't75700:50:39.039 --> 00:50:44.039be doing that with your reserves.Well, now you're getting into a whole75800:50:44.079 --> 00:50:47.719other area planning in general. LikeI said, why as the corporation a75900:50:47.800 --> 00:50:53.960government or an individual. Your emergencysavings, your emergency reserves is for emergencies.76000:50:54.079 --> 00:50:58.559And I supposed to like play aroundwith that. Last time I checked76100:50:59.039 --> 00:51:02.320when I was when I was overin California. We were in Amazon picking76200:51:02.400 --> 00:51:07.159up some some items, and Iwas with my daughter and her husband.76300:51:07.639 --> 00:51:10.000I'm sorry, in Whole Foods,thank you, thank you. I was76400:51:10.039 --> 00:51:15.159in Whole food thank you, Amazonowned by Amazon Company, Whole Foods.76500:51:15.800 --> 00:51:19.719Uh. Anyway, I was itwith with my my daughter and her husband76600:51:19.719 --> 00:51:22.519and the two kids and my wife, and we got to the checkout counter76700:51:23.039 --> 00:51:27.559and I said, uh, letme get this, and I put my76800:51:27.679 --> 00:51:32.519palm out there and I paid forit with my palm. And they were76900:51:32.559 --> 00:51:37.559blown away because you're old, andit's like, how do they know how77000:51:37.559 --> 00:51:38.800to do that? How would Iknow more than them? Right then,77100:51:38.800 --> 00:51:40.440they were like, well, howdo you how do you do that?77200:51:40.480 --> 00:51:44.639What do you you know? Mydaughter and her husband well, but it's77300:51:44.679 --> 00:51:47.280it's very cool, so they like, read your hands there, Yeah,77400:51:47.320 --> 00:51:51.840what you do? Yeah, yougo online and you get a QR code77500:51:52.119 --> 00:51:57.320and then you go into any Amazonretail location and you go to the palm77600:51:57.360 --> 00:52:00.519reader and it's kind of like thefacial record NISS on your phone. How77700:52:00.599 --> 00:52:05.199you know you move around and seedifferent sides of your faces. Do that77800:52:05.239 --> 00:52:07.920with your palm. You move yourpalm around and I used to have those77900:52:07.960 --> 00:52:10.840buttons, and you know you putyour thumbprint on it. But yet yeah,78000:52:10.920 --> 00:52:15.119yeah, you roll it, rollit around and uh and then you78100:52:15.119 --> 00:52:16.880can pay. So I have awhole Food's a mile from my house and78200:52:16.920 --> 00:52:22.079I'm there probably a couple times aweek, and I walk with my palm.78300:52:22.519 --> 00:52:25.360I'm going I think probably the bestuse of this is going to be78400:52:25.400 --> 00:52:31.119in cutting down on our shop liftingepidemic. We have a shoplifting epidemic in78500:52:31.159 --> 00:52:37.360this country thanks to the legislators,primarily in California saying anybody at card deals78600:52:37.440 --> 00:52:42.719one thousand less than a thousand dollarscan't be prosecuted seriously going to help see,78700:52:42.840 --> 00:52:45.559Okay, So here's how we're goingto do it going forward. You78800:52:45.599 --> 00:52:52.079cannot enter the store without scanning yourpalm. You scan the palm, the78900:52:52.199 --> 00:52:54.159door, the gate opens, andyou can go into the store. It79000:52:54.199 --> 00:52:59.039sounds great, Dave, until yourealize the host of privacy issues you just79100:52:59.079 --> 00:53:05.480open the door to. I'm notconcerned about people knowing my palm print.79200:53:05.760 --> 00:53:08.000That's not the issue. Someone,What do you see as the issue?79300:53:08.039 --> 00:53:12.960You will see every time when someoneshopped, when they shopped, where they79400:53:13.000 --> 00:53:16.960shopped. Probably you could even tellwhy they shopped, and you could monitor79500:53:17.000 --> 00:53:21.800their cell phone and find out thesame You don't have that same access right79600:53:21.840 --> 00:53:24.840now. Amazon can't just go intoyour We've got to do something about this79700:53:24.960 --> 00:53:29.039shop with an epidemic, and we'vegot okay, so maybe we have to79800:53:29.039 --> 00:53:31.559give up something, right, Imean that's everything in life. Solve some79900:53:31.679 --> 00:53:35.360things, but you open the issueto other things. I mean that we80000:53:35.440 --> 00:53:37.360know technology is so great, it'smade our lives so much easier, but80100:53:37.440 --> 00:53:42.760we've never had an issue. Wehave less privacy now than we ever have80200:53:43.280 --> 00:53:49.400had before. What was the greatesttechnology and the worst technology in the last80300:53:49.480 --> 00:53:53.599half of the last century. TheInternet. Yeah, it was the best80400:53:53.800 --> 00:53:58.400and it was the worst. Right, it was both social media and and80500:53:58.519 --> 00:54:04.440AAI is going to be the bestand the worst over the next five years.80600:54:04.519 --> 00:54:07.559Yes, to me, it's it'sa little pet peep of mind when80700:54:07.559 --> 00:54:13.159people talk about technology, how thenewest technologies are always used by criminals.80800:54:13.159 --> 00:54:15.920First, No, it's true,okay, it's how it has always worked.80900:54:16.119 --> 00:54:20.440The first pagers were picked up bycriminals, the first iPhones. You81000:54:20.480 --> 00:54:22.360know, it's always the criminals arecutting edge. So when people are like,81100:54:22.559 --> 00:54:25.639that's just used by criminals, youknow, your money laundering schemes,81200:54:25.679 --> 00:54:30.400like that's how most things start out. And so yeah, I hear you81300:54:30.440 --> 00:54:34.280one hundred percent. You know,there's gives and takes to everything. Some81400:54:34.320 --> 00:54:37.480people are gonna say it's bad atfirst, turns into great things. But81500:54:37.800 --> 00:54:40.840you it is a sacrifice, rightthis world is there's no black or white81600:54:40.880 --> 00:54:45.079answers, especially when it comes tosomething so multi facet it is. It81700:54:45.159 --> 00:54:50.920is. It is a solution tothis huge problem that's causing companies to close81800:54:51.800 --> 00:54:54.960walgranges. The biggest issue at theend of the day is the socioeconomic issue81900:54:55.000 --> 00:54:59.960of the what you're talking about.We're talking about DC, Chicago, LA.82000:55:00.480 --> 00:55:06.280Legislators doing nothing that actually change theinfrastructure, the institutions in those communities82100:55:06.320 --> 00:55:09.599that have continuously made the progress,and the cycles of what's happened in those82200:55:09.639 --> 00:55:15.280communities continue and even exceed and getworse than over the years. That's the82300:55:15.320 --> 00:55:22.679issue. It's education. It's educatingthose lower socioeconomic status people that don't have82400:55:22.760 --> 00:55:27.119the education and who think this isactually okay to do in the long run.82500:55:27.199 --> 00:55:29.960But the secretary of State in Mainecan tell you who's going to be82600:55:30.000 --> 00:55:31.719on the ballot, who you're goingto vote for. One person sitting in82700:55:31.760 --> 00:55:36.320an office in a cubicle in Maineis going to tell us who we can82800:55:36.400 --> 00:55:40.440vote for. That's just a yeah. Or a group of people in Colorado82900:55:40.440 --> 00:55:45.920are deciding, I mean that theyknow more than the group of Americans that83000:55:45.039 --> 00:55:50.559is makes up United States. It'sunbelievable and hopefully the Supreme Court will take83100:55:50.559 --> 00:55:54.119that up. And it's just itisn't right that anyone tell us, well,83200:55:54.159 --> 00:55:57.360not only we can vote for Dave. You told us a couple of83300:55:57.360 --> 00:55:59.800months ago, and I was shockedwhen you told me this. You said,83400:55:59.800 --> 00:56:01.719what requirements to be a president?I said, you have to be83500:56:01.760 --> 00:56:05.000over thirty five and you can't havea felony, right, And you said,83600:56:05.000 --> 00:56:07.039well, that's actually not true.You can have a felony and still83700:56:07.039 --> 00:56:09.880be president. Absolutely yeah. Sothe fact that they think they have anything83800:56:09.880 --> 00:56:14.119on Trump, even if he's afelon, legally, he's still allowed to83900:56:14.159 --> 00:56:17.880run for president. So how arethey have any authority to channish all fourteenth84000:56:17.880 --> 00:56:23.199Amendment, which is which was fromthe Civil War because they didn't want people84100:56:23.239 --> 00:56:30.480from the South taking control of thegovernment, so they put the fourteenth Amendment84200:56:30.519 --> 00:56:35.559in which essentially allows someone who hasbeen involved in an overthrow of the government84300:56:36.280 --> 00:56:38.760or an attempt to overthrow the government, it prohibits them from running. That's84400:56:38.800 --> 00:56:43.639what they're hanging their hat on.Unfortunately, he hasn't been convicted of anything.84500:56:43.719 --> 00:56:46.559And also the overthrow of your ofa government is very subjective. Yeah,84600:56:47.079 --> 00:56:50.840I can, I can make acase of a thousand different versions of84700:56:50.880 --> 00:56:52.719what that means. I mean,we just this is just a road we84800:56:52.800 --> 00:56:58.760can't go down, and that theColorado Supreme Court and now the Secretary of84900:56:58.800 --> 00:57:00.920State. Are you kidding me?People? For game? Freedom of speech85000:57:01.079 --> 00:57:05.000really means. I mean, obviouslywe know you can't say fire in a85100:57:05.119 --> 00:57:08.079movie theater, but for the mostpart, when people say something you really85200:57:08.119 --> 00:57:12.079don't like, you still have tolet them say it, because if something85300:57:12.079 --> 00:57:15.719goes down the road and that becomesnormal, you're not gonna be able to85400:57:15.719 --> 00:57:19.800say the right thing. We haveto allow free speech, even if someone's85500:57:19.800 --> 00:57:25.360saying really terrible stuff. It hasto be somewhat allowed because you can't choose85600:57:25.400 --> 00:57:30.239what's bad because then that one persongets to decide what's bad, and then85700:57:30.360 --> 00:57:34.039that one person is right or wrong. They're basically God in the idea of85800:57:34.119 --> 00:57:37.880virtue. So it's a very scarything when you try to pick and choose85900:57:37.079 --> 00:57:40.199what freedom of speech means. Iagree. And then who's on the ballot?86000:57:40.280 --> 00:57:45.400I mean you just you. Wevote. We signed petitions to get86100:57:45.400 --> 00:57:50.159people on the ballot, right,and if they've gone through that process to86200:57:50.159 --> 00:57:52.199get on the ballot, they shouldbe on the ballot. It shouldn't be86300:57:52.320 --> 00:57:57.679some person sitting and I don't knowif it's a man or woman in the86400:57:57.719 --> 00:58:00.559Sectary of State's office and mayng gono, oh, he can't be in86500:58:00.599 --> 00:58:05.840a ballot. No, seriously,you don't have that authority. So hopefully86600:58:05.880 --> 00:58:08.480the Supreme Cortin will jump out thathas picked up a lot of gain this86700:58:08.559 --> 00:58:12.679year. Is the buy now,pay later? Yes? Yeah, I86800:58:12.679 --> 00:58:16.039mean yeah, it seemed like itwas dying, which for us to not86900:58:16.199 --> 00:58:19.800know it's kind of funny looking backon it. We're Americans, right,87000:58:19.800 --> 00:58:22.920what do we love debt? Sowe love more of after that, more87100:58:22.960 --> 00:58:25.639debt, So it makes a lotof sense. Seabats talked about how they're87200:58:25.679 --> 00:58:29.440using credit cards to pay off afirm. You're using credit to pay off87300:58:29.440 --> 00:58:32.079credit, right, talk about somethingbad for people of lower Yeah, and87400:58:32.119 --> 00:58:35.960Seabats asked me, well, don'tyou think they're going to create regulations to87500:58:36.000 --> 00:58:39.840stop this? Is absolutely not Whywould they destroy a money layer? Yeah,87600:58:39.880 --> 00:58:43.199you know that's if this is anew money layer that has never been87700:58:43.199 --> 00:58:46.039invented before, where you can paycredit with credit using a firm. And87800:58:46.079 --> 00:58:50.039so this buy now, pay lateris why a firm was up roughly four87900:58:50.079 --> 00:58:52.280hundred percent for the year, oneof the biggest returns for any stock above88000:58:52.559 --> 00:58:54.719But I think it was like tenmillion mark cap or something like that.88100:58:54.800 --> 00:58:58.960But I remember when I first gotgot my first significant bonus, it was88200:58:59.000 --> 00:59:02.719like, oh, I have savings. I have spent my entire life perfecting88300:59:02.760 --> 00:59:08.719debt management. What am I supposedto do with this? You know?88400:59:08.800 --> 00:59:13.920So, so as Americans, weare very good at debt management. Well88500:59:14.679 --> 00:59:17.239I don't know about maybe not maybenot that good. Very good at accumulation,88600:59:17.519 --> 00:59:22.000yes, yeah, And I guessthat we have record credit card debt88700:59:22.039 --> 00:59:24.199and everybody's still walking around and drivingand we had a good Christmas, right,88800:59:24.239 --> 00:59:29.239So I guess we're pretty good atmanagement too. Apparently we're good accumulating88900:59:29.239 --> 00:59:31.519it because credit card debts are atall time highs. Well, the credit89000:59:31.559 --> 00:59:35.000card companies are really good at tellingus if you just switch over here,89100:59:35.079 --> 00:59:38.519we'll give you no interest for certainmonths. I mean, it's it's got89200:59:38.599 --> 00:59:42.159to be an art. I mean, I bet there are people out there89300:59:42.199 --> 00:59:46.239that I have people in my lifewho are just experts at getting every dime89400:59:46.280 --> 00:59:52.480out of every tomato, right.And and I'll bet there is a way89500:59:52.639 --> 00:59:57.440that you can have massive credit carddebt and never pay interest, just keep89600:59:57.480 --> 01:00:00.599moving it around even thing you know, you at events they have a really89701:00:00.039 --> 01:00:05.440sorry, really bad credit score.But you talked about you know, you89801:00:05.480 --> 01:00:10.679did talk about weight loss drugs,and this is interesting. So many companies89901:00:10.719 --> 01:00:15.639are coming out of the woodwork nowwith their with their new weight loss drug90001:00:15.440 --> 01:00:21.199And I was coming back from fromsome one of the other scams that's out90101:00:21.199 --> 01:00:27.119there before we leave scams is ElonMusk, right, and not that Elon90201:00:27.199 --> 01:00:29.760Musk is a scam, but Ican't tell you the number of things that90301:00:29.800 --> 01:00:35.519I've seen that was developed by ElonMusk. We're coming back from from California,90401:00:35.599 --> 01:00:37.039My wife's in the We're in thecar. My wife's really he goes,90501:00:37.239 --> 01:00:43.159look at this. Kelly Clarkson lostlike forty pounds with an Elon Musk90601:00:44.119 --> 01:00:50.039oral diet pill. No, no, there are no oral diet pills first90701:00:50.079 --> 01:00:54.639of all, that are effective.Pfizers abandoned their efforts. There are other90801:00:54.679 --> 01:01:00.480companies, but this reminds me somuch, and there were there just Elon90901:01:00.559 --> 01:01:04.119Musk. And you see around thatit's a device that you plug into your91001:01:04.159 --> 01:01:08.000house and it reduces your electric bill. You might have seen that Elon Musk91101:01:08.159 --> 01:01:12.280came up with. Elon Musk hadnothing to do with this, but this91201:01:12.360 --> 01:01:15.280is one of those scams. AndI asked my electrician advisors, is this91301:01:15.320 --> 01:01:17.639for really goes? No, it'snot absolutely no, absolutely not. But91401:01:17.679 --> 01:01:22.000it's always with the Elon Musk.That's that gives you credibility in this.91501:01:22.519 --> 01:01:24.960And of course my wife went onto Google. I don't know why it's91601:01:24.960 --> 01:01:29.800so credible. I mean, wasn'the pounding on a doge coin. I91701:01:29.840 --> 01:01:34.360think it's because we see him assomeone who is smarter than the rest of91801:01:34.440 --> 01:01:37.079us. That's a good point.I think maybe that's why that he could91901:01:37.119 --> 01:01:39.719come up with this stuff. Nobodyelse could, but he could come up92001:01:39.760 --> 01:01:43.599with this. Also the fact thathe's in so many different business ventures.92101:01:43.639 --> 01:01:47.000People have that trust in him,something I talked about earlier in this show.92201:01:47.159 --> 01:01:50.719When the S and P five hundred, it's closing in on a new92301:01:50.760 --> 01:01:54.280all time high, it has beennearly two years since it hit an all92401:01:54.360 --> 01:02:00.480time high. Yep. This charthas found fourteen previous times it went at92501:02:00.599 --> 01:02:05.360least one year without an all timehigh, right, uh, and then92601:02:05.400 --> 01:02:10.079finally made one. Normally, it'shigher a year later, thirteen times out92701:02:10.119 --> 01:02:15.719of I can't sorry, Well,it's it's on up. It's up on92801:02:15.800 --> 01:02:20.920average fourteen point nine percent a yearlater when it nears an all time after92901:02:21.000 --> 01:02:22.360hitting an all time after hitting anew all time high. So that is93001:02:22.400 --> 01:02:28.480not necessarily getting me out time,right, And it's it just was a93101:02:28.639 --> 01:02:31.679I'm so surprised that that return isso high. Yeah, it is shocking.93201:02:31.920 --> 01:02:35.599Could you think what things are whenyou hit an all time high?93301:02:35.719 --> 01:02:37.559But again that that's the momentum inthe economy. Yeah, you know.93401:02:38.239 --> 01:02:42.360Really what to say is new highsaren't bearish, right, And Greenspan came93501:02:42.360 --> 01:02:45.000out with that irrational exuberance comment probablyin the eighties. I don't even remember93601:02:45.000 --> 01:02:52.039when it was, but the marketdid continue to go higher and higher four93701:02:52.079 --> 01:02:55.880months after that before before it finallyrolled over. Just to finish my weight93801:02:55.920 --> 01:03:00.960loss thing. Okay, there areso many companies come not It reminds me93901:03:00.000 --> 01:03:05.519of the covid vaccines right when theywhen the covid vaccine. Everybody's clamoring for94001:03:05.559 --> 01:03:10.760covid vaccines and and everybody was comingup with covid vaccines, everybody except Merk.94101:03:10.960 --> 01:03:15.760For whatever reason, Mirke was soundasleep and never Parchas. I had94201:03:15.800 --> 01:03:17.199no idea why well, yeah,let's let's talk about it a little bit.94301:03:17.239 --> 01:03:21.039You know, covid vaccines the biggestthing, you know, probably going94401:03:21.079 --> 01:03:24.159into twenty twenty two, and howthat would perform. They did all right,94501:03:24.760 --> 01:03:29.559then twenty twenty three, one ofthe top losers in the S and94601:03:29.639 --> 01:03:35.599P five hundred, number four,MODERNA, number five, Moderno lost forty94701:03:35.599 --> 01:03:39.760four percent. Visor lost forty fourpercent in twenty twenty three. So you94801:03:39.880 --> 01:03:45.119saw that that whole betting on vaccinesto continue and people are going to continue94901:03:45.159 --> 01:03:50.079to take them just didn't happen.And on this show with Fizer, Fitch95001:03:50.159 --> 01:03:53.480five dollars a share, multiple weekswe said, get out of it,95101:03:53.679 --> 01:03:58.960get out. This COVID thing isgoing to end. And and they're they're95201:03:59.719 --> 01:04:04.639this entire stock prices based upon thiscovid vaccine and it's going to end.95301:04:05.199 --> 01:04:10.719Every every pandemic does. And whenit does, people aren't gonna want the95401:04:10.920 --> 01:04:14.360vaccine. Look at now, theythought twenty five percent of people would get95501:04:14.400 --> 01:04:18.239the vaccine this time. I don'tthink it's anywhere near that. So the95601:04:18.239 --> 01:04:23.440top seven losers in the S andP five hundred this year, FMC Corp,95701:04:24.000 --> 01:04:27.000in Phase Energy. Don't know eitherthose two. But then they're the95801:04:27.039 --> 01:04:30.960ones we know, Dollar General,Moderna, Peiser, sd Lauder, and95901:04:30.000 --> 01:04:34.360pay Comm Software. Not Walgreens.I don't. Well, technically it might96001:04:34.400 --> 01:04:38.280not be in the SMP. Walgreenhas to be in the SP if it's96101:04:38.280 --> 01:04:41.719a dowstock. Oh well, itwasn't up there. I mean, maybe96201:04:41.719 --> 01:04:45.119that three percent gang got it outas of when this was probably a day96301:04:45.320 --> 01:04:49.679ago. Okay, because you knowwe've talked, We talked a lot on96401:04:49.719 --> 01:04:53.719the show about the dogs of theDow right, right, And in twenty96501:04:53.760 --> 01:04:57.480twenty one, Boying was the dog, and then in twenty two it was96601:04:57.480 --> 01:05:00.760one of the better ones In twentytwo, Salesforce dot Com was the dog.96701:05:01.239 --> 01:05:04.480In twenty three, it was oneof the better ones. In twenty96801:05:04.559 --> 01:05:10.119three, the dog was Walgreens.And guess what's happened to Walgreens. It's96901:05:10.199 --> 01:05:15.599rallied thirty three percent in the lastthirty days. Thirty three percent in the97001:05:15.679 --> 01:05:18.239last thirty days. You sure theyreport next weekend? Yeah, full disclosure.97101:05:18.280 --> 01:05:21.719We've got a total of about twentyfive hundred shares of Walgreens stock in97201:05:21.800 --> 01:05:26.239various accounts. Some of our personalaccounts have a little bit of Walgreens.97301:05:26.360 --> 01:05:30.320We're not hyping the stock here.We're not even suggesting you buy the stock.97401:05:30.639 --> 01:05:32.800This is simply an observation, that'sall. It is just simply an97501:05:32.800 --> 01:05:39.320observation. How now, three yearsin a row, the stock that you97601:05:39.360 --> 01:05:43.679couldn't give away has become all ofa sudden become more popular one Now,97701:05:43.679 --> 01:05:46.079should this be a dead cat bouncefor Walgreens? You know a dead cat97801:05:46.159 --> 01:05:49.400bounce? Right, you drop acat from a thirty story building, it'll97901:05:49.480 --> 01:05:54.079it'll bounce. Doesn't mean it's alive. Are you catching that knife? Yeah?98001:05:54.079 --> 01:05:57.039Speaking about observation, so here rightnow, I don't hate cats.98101:05:57.159 --> 01:06:00.440Okay, that was not a commenton cats. It's just a it's term98201:06:00.719 --> 01:06:02.880people you I think I'd say I'ma dog person, but here a dog98301:06:02.880 --> 01:06:06.239person. But I don't mindcast you'reat Greenberg. We have something called by98401:06:06.280 --> 01:06:09.880list, right, which is essentiallya list of stocks, so we could98501:06:09.920 --> 01:06:12.800keep a close tab on, keepan eye on him, and look for98601:06:12.800 --> 01:06:16.440opportunities buy there's This is something thatwe update every two weeks with the help98701:06:16.480 --> 01:06:23.159of morning Star upgrades and downgrades usingtheir Star rating method, which is an98801:06:23.199 --> 01:06:27.800objective way to measure the fund's riskadjusted return, which is that sharp ratio98901:06:27.800 --> 01:06:32.280that Todd was talking about earlier.So for the first time ever since I99001:06:32.320 --> 01:06:35.239started here as an intern back inJanuary, as updating the list this week,99101:06:35.840 --> 01:06:40.880and I did not have a singleupgrade. One hundred and fifty stocks99201:06:40.920 --> 01:06:44.840on our list. With that,my updates consisted of fifteen downgrades and keeping99301:06:44.880 --> 01:06:47.320the rest neutral. Typically, everysingle two weeks that I do this,99401:06:47.760 --> 01:06:53.519you know there's probably ten upgrades,ten downgrades. This time it was flat99501:06:53.679 --> 01:06:58.760all downgrades. Where this is justa interesting observation and I think it encapsulates99601:06:58.880 --> 01:07:01.480the where we're right in the marketat this time. Yeah, possibly the99701:07:01.519 --> 01:07:04.639only issue is the last two weeksof the year, there's there's so little99801:07:04.800 --> 01:07:10.239new evidence of anything coming out.It's that's a good point. Yeah,99901:07:10.280 --> 01:07:13.920there's not a lot to view intothat, but there are At the end100001:07:13.960 --> 01:07:16.199of the day. It's an everchanging landscape, and that's why we have100101:07:16.239 --> 01:07:19.840to have a list of stocks thatwe're looking at. And people all the100201:07:19.840 --> 01:07:23.039time ask us, how do wedo the job we do? How do100301:07:23.079 --> 01:07:27.119we how are we able to stayon top of everything in a world that's100401:07:27.159 --> 01:07:30.639ever changing, And the reality ofit is is we have great systems put100501:07:30.639 --> 01:07:34.239into place. We have great softwarethat allows us to easily check all accounts100601:07:34.239 --> 01:07:40.159at once. We can easily lookat each position, look at asset allocation100701:07:40.280 --> 01:07:43.199for each account, and that's reallywhat allows us to do their job.100801:07:43.239 --> 01:07:45.119Because we talk about this on theshow all the time. We're truly the100901:07:45.119 --> 01:07:47.840money managers. We are the oneactually making the trades, We're the one101001:07:47.880 --> 01:07:53.039actually making the decisions. So wewant to know that we are doing the101101:07:53.039 --> 01:07:56.360best job for you. So we'veinvested a lot in our team and in101201:07:56.400 --> 01:07:59.719our software to make sure we havethe best systems put into place so we101301:07:59.760 --> 01:08:02.039can service everyone with that. Wetalked a little bit about the S and101401:08:02.039 --> 01:08:05.880P five hundred. It's losers,top losers of the year, the top101501:08:05.880 --> 01:08:09.440gainers of the year. In Navidio. We've already talked about that. We101601:08:09.440 --> 01:08:13.119already talked about meta. Something wehaven't talked about has been the cruise lines101701:08:13.760 --> 01:08:17.279Royal Caribbean one hundred and thirty eightpercent for the year, roughly, Carnival101801:08:17.319 --> 01:08:21.239up roughly one sixteen. Palo Altorounded out the top five. But let's101901:08:21.239 --> 01:08:25.520talk about cruises here a little bit, something that wasn't talked about a whole102001:08:25.520 --> 01:08:30.119lot on the shows of financial TVshows and things like that, but obviously102101:08:30.199 --> 01:08:33.760had a great year. Talk alittle bit about your experience with cruises over102201:08:33.760 --> 01:08:40.039the last two or three years,Dave the huge dropping me right. Remember102301:08:40.079 --> 01:08:42.920after we came out of the pandemic, there was just thinking that the cruise102401:08:42.920 --> 01:08:45.920lines, because they had really gottenbeat up during the pandemic, it was102501:08:45.319 --> 01:08:48.159they were going to be the placeto be turned out. It took a102601:08:48.239 --> 01:08:53.520lot longer than anyone expected for themto come back to life, and they102701:08:53.560 --> 01:08:59.439finally stocks were languishing down in thepandemic low area and you really couldn't in102801:08:59.479 --> 01:09:02.279good content and buy them for anyonebecause you didn't know whether we're going to102901:09:02.279 --> 01:09:05.479have a recession before they woke upor not, and they've just woken up103001:09:05.520 --> 01:09:10.279within the last ninety days or so. I would hit the I would hit103101:09:10.279 --> 01:09:13.760the bid on these. I've I'veactually taken some of the money out of103201:09:13.760 --> 01:09:16.960the cruise line stocks because I thinkonce the economy, yeah, I think103301:09:17.000 --> 01:09:20.399when the economy slows, which itwill next year, right, I still103401:09:20.520 --> 01:09:24.840hit the bid, hit the takethe offer, whatever it is. Well,103501:09:24.840 --> 01:09:28.520no, hit the bid. Hitthe bid. S hit the bid.103601:09:28.920 --> 01:09:31.720Someone's bidding for the stock. Hitit, sell it right, hit103701:09:31.760 --> 01:09:35.680the bid. Yeah. The bottomline is, I don't know how high103801:09:35.720 --> 01:09:41.800the cruise stocks go, but Ithink that once the if the economy does103901:09:41.840 --> 01:09:45.680start to slow, and you've saidearlier that with the higher interest rates,104001:09:45.760 --> 01:09:48.479you expect the economy to slow.I do too. If the economy starts104101:09:48.520 --> 01:09:51.680to slow, I think cruise linesand airlines are going to be impacted,104201:09:51.960 --> 01:09:57.439probably more quickly than most others.And we know it's already slowed because you104301:09:57.520 --> 01:10:00.680just look at CPI. Yeah right, we had a all time high at104401:10:00.720 --> 01:10:05.960nine. It's come down to two. Consumer price indeck, so we cpiose104501:10:06.000 --> 01:10:09.840growth. It shows growth, youknow, more than anything. Right.104601:10:09.880 --> 01:10:14.000We saw GDP for quarter three,it was really high, a zero point104701:10:14.079 --> 01:10:15.840nine percent quarter of quarter. That'sa huge quarter, right. I read104801:10:15.880 --> 01:10:19.319an article on Friday that companies arehaving more and more trouble with pricing power.104901:10:19.399 --> 01:10:23.920They're not able to just make theprice whatever they want like they could105001:10:24.159 --> 01:10:28.760a year ago. And also,eventually these companies are going to get through105101:10:28.800 --> 01:10:31.920that cash pile which had been ahistoric highs in the last couple of years.105201:10:32.000 --> 01:10:34.560Yeah, it's logical that you're goingto have a slowdown. I mean105301:10:34.680 --> 01:10:41.520right, I'm not suggesting recession,although the market is predicting recession version yep,105401:10:41.640 --> 01:10:45.079the inverted yield curve is predicting recession. If we have a recession,105501:10:45.119 --> 01:10:50.640cruise lines and airlines are vulnerable.And you've had an awfully nice rally in105601:10:50.680 --> 01:10:56.439the cruise line stocks. I knowsome people own cruise line stocks because they105701:10:56.520 --> 01:11:00.560can get a discount on the cruiseright if they own in the stock.105801:11:00.680 --> 01:11:04.840So we've I've been dealing with thatfor years and I know that to be105901:11:04.880 --> 01:11:10.560the case. So if you ifyou hold fifty shares of Carnival because you106001:11:10.600 --> 01:11:14.000get a discount on the cruises,don't go selling it. But if you106101:11:14.039 --> 01:11:16.319thought it was a great place tohave some money and bought a thousand shares,106201:11:16.359 --> 01:11:19.119it might be a place to peelback a little bit. We're coming106301:11:19.159 --> 01:11:23.680up on a break here, butI know we normally have a little bit106401:11:23.680 --> 01:11:26.720of EV garage, and I wantto talk a little bit about EV's have106501:11:26.760 --> 01:11:29.960been some interesting developments in the Chinaspace. And let's do it in the106601:11:30.319 --> 01:11:32.079next next Let's do it on abreak here. Let's do it in the106701:11:32.079 --> 01:11:38.119next segment. I've got a coupleof EV things related to you know,106801:11:38.800 --> 01:11:42.960tan the the solar had lost sixtypercent in the last two years, but106901:11:43.039 --> 01:11:46.680due to reach dropping, it's rallytwenty percent in the last thirty days.107001:11:46.720 --> 01:11:54.159And that's that makes the that equationas to the break even on solar,107101:11:55.119 --> 01:11:58.560makes that equation better when interest ratesare lower. Interest rates have gotten so107201:11:58.680 --> 01:12:02.279high that it was hard to justify. So the solar stocks had just gotten107301:12:02.319 --> 01:12:06.079blasted, like I say, downsixty percent in the last two years.107401:12:06.359 --> 01:12:12.159They're coming back and we'll be comingback right after this break. Thanks again107501:12:12.199 --> 01:12:17.640for joining us. Welcome back tothe Money Matters Show. My name is107601:12:17.680 --> 01:12:23.439Tod Lick. I'm here with SebastianBoard Senior Dave Sherwood. Our partners,107701:12:23.439 --> 01:12:26.920the Greenberg's, are on vacation andthey will be back in a couple of107801:12:26.960 --> 01:12:30.239weeks. You you're everyone stuck withthe Three Musketeers for another week as well.107901:12:30.399 --> 01:12:34.279Yes, indeed, but we've hadwe've had a fun round out of108001:12:34.319 --> 01:12:39.199the year. We talked a littlebit about EV's going into the last segment108101:12:39.199 --> 01:12:45.319of so let's talk about China's BYDCompany, which bills itself as the biggest108201:12:45.319 --> 01:12:50.000car brand You've Never heard of BYDb YD Charlie Munger, the recently deceased108301:12:50.079 --> 01:12:54.319Charlie Munger's favor stock. It wasone of his favorites. They might need108401:12:54.439 --> 01:12:59.199a different tagline soon because apparently theautomakers poised to surpassed Tesla as the new108501:12:59.239 --> 01:13:02.960worldwide lead in fully electric vehicle cells. Now there's a lot you could look108601:13:03.000 --> 01:13:04.840at there. Is it a year? Is it daily? Is it?108701:13:05.239 --> 01:13:10.520What do they mean by new worldwideleader and fully electric vehicle cells? But108801:13:10.600 --> 01:13:13.800when it does, and that's likelyto be quite soon, analysts think it108901:13:13.800 --> 01:13:16.680will be a symbolic turning point forthe EV market and further confirmation of China's109001:13:16.720 --> 01:13:21.800growing clout in the global automotive industry, not to mention another bit about news109101:13:21.920 --> 01:13:29.760for you Long. I agree.And Tesla is struggling against BYD because BYD109201:13:30.000 --> 01:13:33.239is producing cars that are similar toTesla at much lower prices. But that's109301:13:33.560 --> 01:13:38.640good for the American consumer. AndI think some other things I'm starting to109401:13:38.680 --> 01:13:42.680see as a Tesla owner, I'mstarting to see a lot of deals.109501:13:43.199 --> 01:13:49.079Right, refer us a friend andwe'll give you this. And the prices109601:13:49.119 --> 01:13:56.359have been dropping steadily on the Tesla'sNow they're throwing in six months free supercharging,109701:13:57.479 --> 01:14:01.600okay, which is not an insignificantthing as competition gross top We're going109801:14:01.640 --> 01:14:05.279to keep seeing more. The priceis going to continue to edge lower into109901:14:05.319 --> 01:14:10.439twenty twenty four. Uh. Priceand range, of course, range is110001:14:10.720 --> 01:14:14.520biggie have been the major stumbling blox. But price is a huge stumbling block.110101:14:14.720 --> 01:14:16.239The other stumbling block. And Toddyou brought this up a couple of110201:14:16.239 --> 01:14:23.079weeks ago. Most cars purchased inthe United States are used right about two110301:14:23.119 --> 01:14:29.640thirds, and there have been noused dvs, and that market is growing110401:14:29.960 --> 01:14:32.720dramatically for a lot of reasons.You know, you get an EV,110501:14:32.880 --> 01:14:35.720you don't like it. You know, thirty days into it, six months110601:14:35.760 --> 01:14:40.800into whatever. So there are moreand more. I had a call today110701:14:40.840 --> 01:14:45.640from a client who is not anEV person necessarily, but he had this110801:14:45.720 --> 01:14:49.479is funny. They had they wereflying and they had rented a car.110901:14:49.800 --> 01:14:56.359The only car available to them wasa Tesla, so they went through the111001:14:57.960 --> 01:15:01.479gymnastics of learning about how to usethis Tesla. And these are these are111101:15:02.239 --> 01:15:08.800right leaning elderly people who aren't reallythat interested in hearing about anything electric,111201:15:09.239 --> 01:15:11.920and they've been given to Tesla.Then they're going to have to deal with111301:15:11.960 --> 01:15:15.119it. Well, now he's backfrom his vacation and he wants to get111401:15:15.159 --> 01:15:18.840a Shouvy Bolt because he wants tohave an electric car around town. I111501:15:18.880 --> 01:15:23.800mean, nothing makes you interested inelectric faster than driving an electric car.111601:15:23.880 --> 01:15:27.399It's fantastic. Yeah, I mean, it really is fantastic. So it's111701:15:27.439 --> 01:15:30.079interesting that this guy is one.It should be. But anyway, I111801:15:30.119 --> 01:15:33.279think the used car space is goingto be a little bit tough for EV's111901:15:33.439 --> 01:15:36.319and I think you've talked about thata little bit before because of the you112001:15:36.399 --> 01:15:41.119know, the technology becoming up obsolete. Todd and I were watching a video112101:15:41.159 --> 01:15:45.319earlier today actually about all these junkyards and cities in China that are stockpiling112201:15:45.399 --> 01:15:50.199up with these used, obsolete electricvehicles because you know there's a better one112301:15:50.199 --> 01:15:53.279out there. I don't know whatto do with this. Well, they're112401:15:53.319 --> 01:15:58.159just gonna end up building up.And I think that's why fifty percent of112501:15:58.239 --> 01:16:03.520evs are least right, least theperson purchase and then the purchase in the112601:16:03.600 --> 01:16:09.119gasoline powered cars only seventeen percent orleast, but of electric cars it is112701:16:09.159 --> 01:16:12.800fifty percent. And I think that'sbrilliant because because things are changing. I112801:16:12.880 --> 01:16:15.880think that's a good point of likethe statistical gymnastics you could play, because112901:16:15.880 --> 01:16:18.720we were we had that observation acouple of weeks ago, Dave, and113001:16:18.760 --> 01:16:21.359we're like, why can't we figurethis out? And then it was it113101:16:21.399 --> 01:16:27.560was literally because most of the usedcar sales account for vehicle sales. Yeah,113201:16:27.680 --> 01:16:30.479came up with that, right.Oh, well that's why, I113301:16:30.520 --> 01:16:33.039mean, how many people actually buya new car? Very little a group113401:16:33.079 --> 01:16:38.159of population as a whole. Right, So the elderly guy that just came113501:16:38.159 --> 01:16:41.760back for vacation looking for the Shivvybolt is looking for a used Chivvy volt,113601:16:41.880 --> 01:16:44.760right, and most people that's whatthey do when they're buying a new113701:16:44.800 --> 01:16:46.520car. They don't want the eightpercent hit when they drive off the lot113801:16:46.600 --> 01:16:50.680or whatever it is. And soI when you look at statistics in this113901:16:50.760 --> 01:16:54.479EV space, there's so many waysyou could look at it. You could114001:16:54.520 --> 01:16:58.159skew them any way you want.At this point, I've seen a lot114101:16:58.199 --> 01:17:02.119of statistical gymnastics. Pressures are comingdown though, that's for sure, and114201:17:02.479 --> 01:17:06.279I think that's a good thing.Well, lithium had a terrible year because114301:17:06.319 --> 01:17:10.640there's an oversupply of it, anda lot of it has to do with114401:17:11.760 --> 01:17:15.760the EV industry not using as muchlithium as analysts thought they could or needed,114501:17:16.119 --> 01:17:18.720and so lithium has had a terribleyear, but you know it has114601:17:18.760 --> 01:17:23.319had a great year. It isuranium. Uranium has had a great year114701:17:23.319 --> 01:17:28.520because a little bit of other countries, not really US has started some version114801:17:28.520 --> 01:17:31.159of a nuclear Task Force, whichI'm happy about. Hopefully that gained some114901:17:31.239 --> 01:17:34.720speed. But the other countries aroundthe world, like China specifically, has115001:17:34.920 --> 01:17:39.319started a lot of nuclear plants inproduction over the next ten years. They're115101:17:39.319 --> 01:17:42.800going to need a lot of uraniumto do that. Uranium the ETF I115201:17:42.920 --> 01:17:45.000follow you you follow a different one. Mine was up fifty percent. Do115301:17:45.039 --> 01:17:48.800you know how much your similar exactly? So uranium had a great year for115401:17:48.840 --> 01:17:55.039a commodity space where commodities didn't doreally anything special in twenty three. So115501:17:55.079 --> 01:18:00.520for uranium to outperform like that,there's definitely some supply demand dynamics in that115601:18:00.600 --> 01:18:04.000space. Visit to the EV garage. I thought we were Okay, yeah,115701:18:04.039 --> 01:18:05.680we're back in it. I thoughtwe were in it. No,115801:18:05.720 --> 01:18:09.680we're not an EV garage. Andlet us tell I say, EV garage,115901:18:09.720 --> 01:18:12.640what just happened? Wow, youwere talking, we were, we116001:18:12.680 --> 01:18:16.000were in an EV drive. Wewere talking about what we were talking about,116101:18:16.079 --> 01:18:19.199Chinese electric vehicle. We were notin the EV garage. Okay,116201:18:19.199 --> 01:18:21.560we were. You actually have topull into the garage. Yeah, you116301:18:21.600 --> 01:18:28.319can't just be driving around her inthe evzy. Now we need to drive116401:18:28.399 --> 01:18:30.920into the We're going to actually bein the EV garage, which is the116501:18:31.079 --> 01:18:36.159education, our educational segment that likethat. It's about forty percent of people116601:18:36.159 --> 01:18:42.239who buy an electric vehicle. Actuallyit's closer to fifty lease that vehicle rebates116701:18:42.359 --> 01:18:46.039have played an important part in generatinginterest, but not necessarily for those least116801:18:46.039 --> 01:18:51.159people because the car company gets thoserebates, that's all gonna change next week.116901:18:51.239 --> 01:18:57.159Seashion all gonna change next week.And what's short for Sebastian sea bass?117001:18:57.479 --> 01:18:59.680That cute? I heard. Mywife thinks that's so cute for the117101:18:59.800 --> 01:19:01.680whole life ever since tea bowl,so sea basket. We're gonna be changed.117201:19:01.680 --> 01:19:05.359We're gonna be changing next week becausethat seventy five hundred dollars new tax117301:19:05.479 --> 01:19:12.560credit becomes an immediate seventy five hundreddollars payment. So instead of having to117401:19:12.600 --> 01:19:15.199wait until you file your taxes toget your seventy five hundred bucks, you're117501:19:15.239 --> 01:19:19.399gonna get it on the spot.I wonder if solar will have a similar117601:19:19.600 --> 01:19:21.600Well there you go, Well thatwould it'd be helpful, wuldn't it right?117701:19:21.640 --> 01:19:26.520Right? But on the spot.So if you're whatever your deal is117801:19:26.520 --> 01:19:29.960for the car, UH, takeseventy five hundred bucks off of that right117901:19:30.039 --> 01:19:32.359at the dealership before you write thecheck for the car. Uh. You118001:19:32.359 --> 01:19:35.960don't have to wait for anything tocome back. The biggest problem with the118101:19:36.239 --> 01:19:41.840with getting that seventy five hundred dollarsrebate, however, is there's only ten118201:19:41.920 --> 01:19:47.239vehicles eligible for the full seventy fivehundred and it's based upon income, it's118301:19:47.239 --> 01:19:51.680based upon parts, it's based uponyou know, where it's manufactured. There's118401:19:51.720 --> 01:19:56.439a lot of nuances. So hereare the ten ready for this? All118501:19:56.479 --> 01:19:59.920three Tesla models are eligible, youknow the why, the s and the118601:20:00.319 --> 01:20:04.920those are all eligible. The ChryslerI'm sorry, the Ford F one fifty118701:20:05.000 --> 01:20:11.960Lightning Pickup, the Cadillac Lyric,Chrysler Pacifica, and then four GM models,118801:20:11.960 --> 01:20:15.439which I thought was impressive. GMhas four cars that qualify for the118901:20:15.439 --> 01:20:19.319full Equinox, Delverado, Blazer,and the Bolt. Other cars do qualify119001:20:19.359 --> 01:20:24.000for a partial rebate, you know, so they're to get the full seventy119101:20:24.000 --> 01:20:26.760five hundred, it's got to beone of those ten vehicles. Yes,119201:20:26.840 --> 01:20:29.479So, like who would want tobuy any V on the basis of I119301:20:29.600 --> 01:20:32.239might skit seventy five hundred dollars,you know that's subsidy. Isn't really Like119401:20:32.680 --> 01:20:34.760I don't think it's going to driveme to go get that? Well,119501:20:34.760 --> 01:20:39.479you'll know, you'll know at thedealership. In other words, you walk119601:20:39.520 --> 01:20:43.000in and you say here's who Iam, and here's they'll they'll ask the119701:20:43.039 --> 01:20:45.760income questions because it is income basedtoo, which people can't get it.119801:20:46.520 --> 01:20:50.520Yeah, And so what are thepredominant buyers of vvs right now? Yeah,119901:20:50.960 --> 01:20:55.239people that people that may not qualifyfor the seventy five hundred dollars rebate,120001:20:55.319 --> 01:20:59.960which may be why so many peopleare leasing it because they don't quali120101:21:00.119 --> 01:21:06.079fire it anyway because of income.Right right, thanks Biden. Exactly have120201:21:06.159 --> 01:21:09.840we done with the ev garage?We're finally in the house. We're in120301:21:09.880 --> 01:21:12.079the house, all right, We'rein the house. Uh. New York120401:21:12.119 --> 01:21:16.399Times has sued Microsoft and open AIfor using its content to help develop chat120501:21:16.439 --> 01:21:23.840GBT. It's kind of an interestingstory because technically New York Times might have120601:21:23.880 --> 01:21:28.800a case because it does sound likeMicrosoft and open I use these copyrighted articles120701:21:28.960 --> 01:21:32.760to train the chat GBT to helpdo what it does now. But on120801:21:32.800 --> 01:21:38.319the other token, that's freedom.That's a free information. Well it's technically120901:21:38.399 --> 01:21:42.159not free information, but it kindof is. That's gonna be an interesting121001:21:42.239 --> 01:21:45.319lawsuit right there. I think it'sa really interesting one. I don't know121101:21:45.359 --> 01:21:47.560which way the judge will sway ofthat one. That that is an interesting121201:21:47.600 --> 01:21:54.920that is an interesting lawsuit. Anduh, it's it's just a reminder when121301:21:54.920 --> 01:21:59.560I see when I see that andI see Google getting sued by somebody,121401:21:59.640 --> 01:22:02.439micros Off getting sued by somebody,and it's just we live in that country,121501:22:02.479 --> 01:22:06.880don't we. We live in thatcountry where we have seventy percent of121601:22:06.960 --> 01:22:11.960all of the lawyers in the worldlive in this country. Think about how121701:22:12.039 --> 01:22:15.159much money those lawyers of intellectual propertymake, you know, Like, who's121801:22:15.199 --> 01:22:19.520there? Who's their client? It'sGoogle, It's Microsoft, that's yeah,121901:22:19.720 --> 01:22:24.800you got you do you think whodo you think win's this lawsuit? I122001:22:24.800 --> 01:22:27.800think it'll set a lot of court. Obviously Microsoft will pay you know,122101:22:27.880 --> 01:22:30.640some small amount, like a billiondollars, some small amount. Yeah,122201:22:30.720 --> 01:22:33.239for these companies. I mean,these numbers are just off the charts.122301:22:33.239 --> 01:22:39.560But you know, Apple, Applecould not was just could could not sell122401:22:39.600 --> 01:22:44.640their Series nine and Ultra to Applewatches in the US to do a patent122501:22:44.680 --> 01:22:50.479infringement lawsuit that they recently lost.Apple appealed, appealed the decision, and122601:22:50.560 --> 01:22:54.000an appeals court said, and youknow, go ahead and keep selling them122701:22:54.560 --> 01:22:58.920while we while we talk about this. A Massimo, who accused Apple of122801:22:58.920 --> 01:23:04.800stealing its pultry symmetry technology, wonthe lawsuit, but the court said,122901:23:04.840 --> 01:23:08.039no, I just go ahead,you keep you keep showing them while we123001:23:08.079 --> 01:23:11.319talk about it, and you know, Microsoft with the New York Times,123101:23:11.359 --> 01:23:14.640it just it's just one after another. I mean, just probably own some123201:23:14.680 --> 01:23:16.279apple stuck there. We live init. We live in a country where123301:23:16.279 --> 01:23:20.159you can sue anybody over anything atany time. And well, let's let's123401:23:20.239 --> 01:23:25.319not forget the FTC, who hasthe absolute worst track record when they try123501:23:25.359 --> 01:23:29.239to sue someone, especially in theBiden administration. Have they won one lawsuit?123601:23:29.359 --> 01:23:32.359They have struggled? I don't thinkthey have. They just like to123701:23:32.520 --> 01:23:36.720talk about how big business is badand then can't prove what they said was123801:23:36.760 --> 01:23:40.199bad. Yeah, big business isbad. We know that. I mean123901:23:40.239 --> 01:23:42.800that's that's if you listen to theleft, that big business, big,124001:23:42.840 --> 01:23:45.319big business is bad. But thenwhat is big business? Right? Well,124101:23:45.399 --> 01:23:48.680well it sounds like it would bea Pelosi trade when she hasn't sent124201:23:48.760 --> 01:23:54.800information. Your mounds like mushin gettinga kickback when you when you you it124301:23:54.840 --> 01:23:57.880sounds that's the way you want toSo let's be let's be honest what big124401:23:57.920 --> 01:24:00.760business is. If you're making morethan them on wage, you're obviously cheating,124501:24:02.079 --> 01:24:05.520right right, And I think that'sthat's I think that goes back to124601:24:05.760 --> 01:24:11.199to UH President Obama, who camefrom the streets right. He was an124701:24:11.319 --> 01:24:15.399organizer, and I think as anorganizer, you see big business as the124801:24:15.640 --> 01:24:20.920as your foal. And I thinkthat was the mindset going in that the124901:24:20.960 --> 01:24:25.840big business is to be dealt with. I think more than anything, it's125001:24:25.840 --> 01:24:29.680a victim mentality that is spread outthrough our society and probably the world.125101:24:29.880 --> 01:24:32.159People don't like to take responsibility forwhy they are where they are. It's125201:24:32.159 --> 01:24:35.560easier to blame someone else. We'recoming up on a break. We thank125301:24:35.600 --> 01:24:40.239you for everyone who's listening to ourradio show. We have one more segment,125401:24:40.239 --> 01:24:42.680happy to bring it to you,and yes I'm talking about bitcoin.125501:24:42.760 --> 01:24:48.479Next segment. We'll be right backas the Money Matter Show. Welcome back125601:24:48.520 --> 01:24:50.760to the Money Matter Show. Myname is Sebastian barg Si. I'm here125701:24:50.760 --> 01:24:57.439with Todd Blick and Stave Surewood.All right, editions, and this is125801:24:57.479 --> 01:25:00.840my time to talk about some bitcoinpop. The Champagne Let's go. It125901:25:00.920 --> 01:25:03.199was a champagne pop in years itwas for bitcoin, wasn't It was up126001:25:03.439 --> 01:25:06.560one hundred and fifty four percent onthe year. Not as much as in126101:25:06.600 --> 01:25:13.159a video a video beat them somethingsomething, But I but you weren't number126201:25:13.159 --> 01:25:16.359one. You weren't number one.Sorry no, Yeah, So finally a126301:25:16.399 --> 01:25:23.079bitcoin if it actually kind of replacedall the loss it had in twenty twenty126401:25:23.119 --> 01:25:26.439two, it's about where it wasnow, trades around forty two thousand per126501:25:26.479 --> 01:25:30.760bitcoin. The spot bitcoin ETF rumorsis really what propelled this recent rally.126601:25:31.319 --> 01:25:34.479January tenth, this is the dateto keep on your calendar. That is126701:25:34.520 --> 01:25:39.960said to be the deadline for theSEC to either approve or deny the first126801:25:40.039 --> 01:25:44.600ever spot bitcoin ETF. We talkedabout this on the show before. Technically126901:25:44.720 --> 01:25:48.319ETFs are not allowed to buy theunderlying commodity until the ETF's approved. Therefore,127001:25:48.359 --> 01:25:53.680all this money that has been increasinginto bitcoin hasn't actually been institutions.127101:25:53.720 --> 01:25:56.119Now, it could be other institutionsfront running the institutions that have to buy127201:25:56.159 --> 01:26:00.560the bitcoin for the ETF, Butwhen that ETF gets approved, if it127301:26:00.560 --> 01:26:03.920gets approved, there has to bebuying. That's what retailers are. Retail127401:26:03.920 --> 01:26:08.399traders are kind of front rating,frontrunning institutions for one of the first times127501:26:08.520 --> 01:26:12.439in financial markets because it just normallydoesn't happen that way. Normally it's an127601:26:12.479 --> 01:26:15.399IPO, right, and so youcan't get in before the institutions. This127701:26:15.439 --> 01:26:18.439is one of the first times whereretailers can kind of front run what possibly127801:26:18.520 --> 01:26:21.840might be the first ever it's aboutbitcoin ETF And on top of that,127901:26:23.199 --> 01:26:27.359you have the twenty twenty four happening. The twenty twenty four happening coincides with128001:26:27.439 --> 01:26:32.119bitcoin miners receiving a half of thereward they're currently receiving when this happens.128101:26:32.119 --> 01:26:35.960And this is how bitcoin work works. It happens every four years, and128201:26:36.000 --> 01:26:41.920it has a built in monetary policy, and it's a deflationary one, meaning128301:26:41.960 --> 01:26:45.960every time there's less and less bitcoinsbeing added to the circulation of bitcoin.128401:26:46.359 --> 01:26:51.079Eventually the happening and the increase ofbitcoin completely stops in a year around twenty128501:26:51.119 --> 01:26:56.920one thirty when all twenty one millionhave been distributed. And so that's really128601:26:56.960 --> 01:27:00.319how it works. Talking about bitcoinminors, Mara Marathon, Yeah, I128701:27:00.319 --> 01:27:04.279mean that thing has been ripping faceslike crazy. It has been. It128801:27:04.319 --> 01:27:10.880has outpaced bitcoin almost three four timesthe gain on the year. It had128901:27:10.880 --> 01:27:13.840a really bad two days. Itwas down eleven percent on Thursday, it129001:27:13.840 --> 01:27:16.680was down sixteen percent on Friday,and it was still at the same value129101:27:16.720 --> 01:27:20.079on Friday that it was five daysprevious. If the spot ETF is not129201:27:20.199 --> 01:27:23.760approved, what does this mean forbitcoin? And what does it mean for129301:27:23.800 --> 01:27:27.560these bitcoin minors that have been justyou know, going on a rampage lately.129401:27:27.640 --> 01:27:30.319I don't think it means anything forbitcoin miners other than the fact that129501:27:30.359 --> 01:27:34.319they seem to be completely overvalued andthere could be a lot of short You129601:27:34.319 --> 01:27:38.119think we're seeing a little bit offoe mode, like everybody's just throwing money129701:27:38.119 --> 01:27:42.279into it before this, Well no, because again, institutions cannot invest in129801:27:42.319 --> 01:27:46.359bitcoin until there's approved ETF for it. They can't buy a future's bitcoin product.129901:27:46.479 --> 01:27:51.359So if an institution wanted to allocatemoney to bitcoin one two three percent,130001:27:51.359 --> 01:27:55.359and when you talk about institutions,you're talking about billions of dollars even130101:27:55.359 --> 01:27:58.439at one two three percent, theycan't do that right now because it's not130201:27:58.520 --> 01:28:02.079in their legal body to be ableto buy something that doesn't have an approved130301:28:02.399 --> 01:28:06.079spot ETF. It's like trying toand we talked about this day they took130401:28:06.079 --> 01:28:10.640away the oil ETF. If youwere an institution, I want to invest130501:28:10.640 --> 01:28:15.199in oil, some institutions say youcan't use futures ETFs, so you can't130601:28:15.239 --> 01:28:17.399invest in oil other than maybe owningan oil stock, so you have to130701:28:17.399 --> 01:28:21.960find exposure in different ways. Sothis could be the first time when institutions130801:28:21.960 --> 01:28:26.640can finally allocate to the space.Now, all the other cryptos there are130901:28:26.720 --> 01:28:31.560long ways away from ever getting thistreatment because the SEC actually sees bitcoin as131001:28:31.560 --> 01:28:35.439more of the commodity than a security, and that's why they're first up to131101:28:35.520 --> 01:28:41.279bat on this ETF And that's what'sreally the c I mean again, every131201:28:41.279 --> 01:28:45.359time you've seen a happening event,you've seen an increase happen afterwards. Now,131301:28:45.479 --> 01:28:47.039things don't always happen. Bitcoin's veryyoung. It started in two thousand131401:28:47.079 --> 01:28:50.079and nine, right, so there'sa long time for to see how it131501:28:50.119 --> 01:28:55.960continues to do. But it hashad these huge peaks around the happening and131601:28:56.000 --> 01:28:59.840then huge drops about a year anda half after. Is that happening did131701:29:00.600 --> 01:29:04.600built in so that it doesn't getanti inflationary? Correct, It's a built131801:29:04.600 --> 01:29:09.359in deflationary and it's built into thebitcoin code and it cannot be changed by131901:29:09.359 --> 01:29:14.880anyone. Technically, if more thanfifty one percent of all the bitcoin minors132001:29:14.920 --> 01:29:18.119agreed, they could change the protocol. And so when people are like who132101:29:18.159 --> 01:29:21.760runs bitcoin. It's the people,it's the people who use bitcoin. You132201:29:21.840 --> 01:29:26.760all vote, and how much bitcoinminor computing power of the total pie is132301:29:26.840 --> 01:29:31.159kind of your vote. I thinkprobably the biggest takeaway from this radio show132401:29:31.239 --> 01:29:36.439this week is that it's human natureto want to be more aggressive when the132501:29:36.439 --> 01:29:41.640market has a nine week winning streak. It's human nature to want to be132601:29:41.680 --> 01:29:45.760more conservative when it has a nineweek losing streak. Don't do either of132701:29:45.800 --> 01:29:49.319those. This is not a timeto change your asset allocation to become more132801:29:49.319 --> 01:29:53.399aggressive, period, It's not.And if anything, this is the time132901:29:53.439 --> 01:29:55.920to revisit the risk tolerance. Sowe talk to people all the time.133001:29:55.960 --> 01:29:59.359We use this really interesting software calledrisk Allies, where we can, if133101:29:59.399 --> 01:30:01.680you want completely free each charge,send us your account statements. We can133201:30:01.960 --> 01:30:05.880put it into each holding. Intoour software is the risk alives and it133301:30:06.479 --> 01:30:11.279describes a value, a risk valuefrom one to one hundred for each stock133401:30:11.640 --> 01:30:15.800and then averages out the complete portfoliobased on the waiting of each stock in133501:30:15.840 --> 01:30:19.640the portfolio and gives you an allin all risk score for each portfolio.133601:30:20.000 --> 01:30:24.760And then you can compare that toa risk tolerance questionnaire you take that gives133701:30:24.760 --> 01:30:27.760you a one to one hundred scoreand see how they align. If they133801:30:27.800 --> 01:30:30.720are where they are and they're equallythen perfect. If they're not, maybe133901:30:30.760 --> 01:30:34.479it is time to take profits orbe more aggressive, depending on what the134001:30:34.520 --> 01:30:38.600results are. And so, ifanything, this is a good time to134101:30:38.600 --> 01:30:42.880revisit those risk tolerances, revisit thefinancial plan, and we're here to help134201:30:42.920 --> 01:30:45.680with all of that. It is, and I think that it's very natural134301:30:45.960 --> 01:30:51.600in times like this when you dotake a risk questionnaire, to be more134401:30:51.720 --> 01:30:57.439accepting of risk than you might normallybe. So it is you'd have to.134501:30:57.560 --> 01:31:00.439Well when we look at a clientwho comes in and let's say one134601:31:00.520 --> 01:31:04.880hundred percent invested is a number ofone hundred, right, And a client134701:31:04.920 --> 01:31:10.000comes in and goes, well,I think i'm a seventy, that's really134801:31:10.000 --> 01:31:15.920a sixty because you're you're you're justyour human nature is making you be more134901:31:16.039 --> 01:31:20.359comfortable right now. Because the market'sgone up for nine consecutive weeks, it's135001:31:20.399 --> 01:31:25.119going to keep going up, youknow for nine more consecutive weeks. We135101:31:25.239 --> 01:31:29.359know that's not going to happen,but you the comfort level right now is135201:31:29.439 --> 01:31:35.520very high. The the risk index, the VIX is as low as it's135301:31:35.520 --> 01:31:43.000spend in years, So that's athat's a good measure of where the market's135401:31:43.039 --> 01:31:45.920going to go. There, we'redue for a pullback, We're due for135501:31:45.920 --> 01:31:48.800a pullback, but we don't wedon't expect a major pullback, but we135601:31:48.840 --> 01:31:55.319do expect to pull back. Wewere saying in February, March, April135701:31:55.439 --> 01:32:00.399of this year when clients were soconcerned about the drop been twenty twenty two135801:32:01.000 --> 01:32:05.640and the twenty some percent loss,and at that time, the regional bank135901:32:05.640 --> 01:32:11.840failure, the regional bank failure,we were saying every week, the one136001:32:12.000 --> 01:32:17.079thing that every market decline in historyhas in common is every market decline in136101:32:17.199 --> 01:32:21.880history has been followed by a newall time high. And what did we136201:32:23.000 --> 01:32:27.439just hit a new all time high? Almost it happened, but the SDP136301:32:27.680 --> 01:32:30.439was like three points away. Thedoubt did hit an all time high.136401:32:30.520 --> 01:32:34.119Now that get hit an all timehigh. So it's cool. But and136501:32:34.239 --> 01:32:39.279we were saying people, the markethas only been down two years in a136601:32:39.399 --> 01:32:44.039row, four times in the lasteighty years, four times in the last136701:32:44.079 --> 01:32:47.199day, so the odds of itbeing down in twenty twenty three are pretty136801:32:47.239 --> 01:32:50.720small. Well, guess what,how did that work? Out. Yeah,136901:32:51.039 --> 01:32:55.680when you look at March. Imean if you take yourself back to137001:32:55.760 --> 01:32:59.159March and you think, oh,twenty twenty two is so bad. We've137101:32:59.199 --> 01:33:01.039had some gains so far in twentythree, but now we have this regional137201:33:01.119 --> 01:33:04.319bank failure. I better sell andlock in some of these gains right now137301:33:04.359 --> 01:33:08.720before this thing really turns bad.Like we knew it, we was already137401:33:08.720 --> 01:33:12.399doing in twenty twenty two. Andthen guess what happened coming off the tech137501:33:12.479 --> 01:33:15.039wrec right into the regional banking crisisand it's like, oh, my goodness,137601:33:15.039 --> 01:33:18.800why would anyone do this with theirmoney? And that's the same people137701:33:18.840 --> 01:33:21.560now are saying, well, whyam I not all in? You know,137801:33:23.760 --> 01:33:28.680you've got to find that level.The most important thing is finding that137901:33:28.880 --> 01:33:33.720asset allocation that will allow you toride through times when the market is down.138001:33:34.000 --> 01:33:38.680Going. The last nine weeks havebeen easy. Easy. I mean138101:33:38.960 --> 01:33:43.399it goes up every single week,as simple as it gets. What we138201:33:43.520 --> 01:33:47.720try to do is find that assetallocation where you can stay invested when it138301:33:47.760 --> 01:33:51.880goes down for three, four orfive six weeks in a row and it138401:33:51.960 --> 01:33:57.800doesn't freak you out. I haveyoung clients. It's not about age.138501:33:57.920 --> 01:34:00.840I have young clients I've said thison the show, who are very conservative138601:34:00.920 --> 01:34:06.159and prefer CDs and treasuries. AndI have a ninety seven year old John138701:34:06.840 --> 01:34:11.079who doesn't have any airs, Hehas a million bucks, he has no138801:34:11.159 --> 01:34:15.960heirrors, and he keeps pushing meto be more aggressive. Obviously, from138901:34:15.000 --> 01:34:19.880a fiduciary point of view, Ican't do that, and he understands that.139001:34:20.840 --> 01:34:25.359So it's not about age. It'sabout what your tolerance is for risk.139101:34:25.840 --> 01:34:30.199What's the maximum amount of equity exposureyou can tolerate. That's what we139201:34:30.279 --> 01:34:33.800try to find. You know.I think that one of the best business139301:34:33.800 --> 01:34:39.800moves of twenty twenty three was GEspinning off their sectors of their business,139401:34:40.279 --> 01:34:45.560and GE Stock was a beneficiary ofit. GE Healthcare was a good spin139501:34:45.600 --> 01:34:49.760off there. GE probably had oneof the best corporate business moves in hindsight,139601:34:50.359 --> 01:34:54.239And then you were talking about itnormally that never works, never,139701:34:54.359 --> 01:34:59.039but it works. Reverse has agood decision about that company. I'm we're139801:34:59.119 --> 01:35:00.600kind of coming up on it here. We want to talk a little bit.139901:35:00.640 --> 01:35:03.439I come up with the New Year'sresolution, you don't do them,140001:35:05.119 --> 01:35:11.760help other people yours. It's kindof why I'm taking the Sedona trip.140101:35:12.079 --> 01:35:15.560Yeah, figure it out. Ohyeah, I got an engagement coming up.140201:35:15.600 --> 01:35:16.199I don't know. Oh no,no, no, no, no140301:35:16.199 --> 01:35:21.079no, take it easier over there. Pull back the rains. But he140401:35:21.159 --> 01:35:26.279pulled back the rains, you know, my my most likely. I mean,140501:35:26.279 --> 01:35:30.079this is always something that's a bigissue of mine. It's the practice140601:35:30.520 --> 01:35:35.000what's called empathetic listening. You know, not not to be not to listen140701:35:35.000 --> 01:35:40.319with the intent to respond, butbe intent to understand. You know,140801:35:40.479 --> 01:35:44.000I'm a very quick person and it'sin my industry. People expect me to140901:35:44.039 --> 01:35:46.600know the answers, so you alwayshave an answer ready. In life,141001:35:46.600 --> 01:35:50.199that's not always how you should communicatewith people. So that's my news resolution141101:35:50.359 --> 01:35:54.960listen more than I talked this year, which shouldn't be hard to do.141201:35:55.359 --> 01:35:58.399Like Judge Judy says, that's whyyou've got two ears in one mouth.141301:35:59.000 --> 01:36:03.840Yeah right, that's going to belistening anyway. We appreciate uh you listening.141401:36:04.079 --> 01:36:08.760We appreciate the business in the lasttwenty of the business we've had in141501:36:08.800 --> 01:36:13.239twenty twenty three been an outstanding yearfor our clients. It's been an outstanding141601:36:13.319 --> 01:36:16.680year for Greenberg Financial. We lookforward to coming back in the new year141701:36:17.079 --> 01:36:20.039and bringing you a new radio showwith just the Three Musketeers. Though the141801:36:20.079 --> 01:36:23.239first one out of the shoot thisyear was the Year of the Jordan,141901:36:23.319 --> 01:36:26.760this next year's year of Kobe Well, want to be Happy, and of142001:36:26.800 --> 01:36:30.000course healthy is way up there onthe list. But at the end of142101:36:30.039 --> 01:36:32.399the day, what we're really tryingto do here at Greenberg Financial is bro