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Good morning, Welcome to the March Madness edition.
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It's been a great matters show, March Madness, where.
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He Greenberg is obviously not here, or you'd hear his
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booming voice dealing Greenberg is not here.
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It's been some madness in the markets.
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There's been madness in the market and madness in the
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you know, you know what the odds are filling out
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a perfect bracket madness.
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Yeah, it's like one in seventeen quintillion.
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You have just one in nine quintillion. It's yeah, one
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in nine quintillion, which is.
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A greater era. There's a harder chance than winning the lottery. No,
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this is actually a really cool thing. If I told
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you I picked one grain of sand on the earth,
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and you have to pick that exact same grain of sand,
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you have a better chance of doing that than filling
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out a perfect bracket. Seriously, because I guess there's only
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like four quintillions grains of sand on earth.
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Who counted those? Right? Right?
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How do you buy that number out?
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I'm glad I didn't do that for a living. What
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do you want to be? I want to be fan
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count I'm awfully glad. Anyway, we broke the losing streak
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four consecutive weeks lower and barely Fire managed to edge
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up twenty eight points.
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No day, we were on route for the fifth straight
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losing On Friday, it definitely was trading lower, but it
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seemed like maybe two hours three hours before the closes
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started to get some steam back to it.
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Bridy was an interesting day, and it you very well
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could could say, Okay, that was a reversal day. The
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Dow opened down five hundred points, it was done big
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and it ended up higher. So I mean that's that's impressive.
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That's very impressive. Yeah.
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And like we were saying, if fifth straight down week,
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I mean we I mean, after coming off four straight
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down weeks, we had a feeling that you weren't going
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to get a fifth trade week, but we were on route.
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But I mean that's the interesting thing now coming into
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next week. The economic reports for this week, I mean
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kind of showed that inflation is going to be the
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focus point moving forward. Sure for the fat Sure they
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really don't care about labor market. It doesn't seem much.
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They decided on Wednesday not to raise rates, which is
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what we expected, but then they make a comment that
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they could see as many as two rate cuts this year,
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which I found surprising. Frankly.
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Yeah, it was two more than what the market had
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and what they said that they expected from themselves.
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Yeah, I'm really previously, I hope we don't have two
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more because if we do, that means the economy is
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really softened up.
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Right, there's definitely the dot plots were interesting, and Jerome
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Pale's comments was saying that the economy is still relatively
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strong and we're not seeing the tariff destruction that all.
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Like the Atlanta Fed GDP kind of pointed out, and
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we talked about this on the show a couple of
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weeks ago, but that Atlanta Fed GDP NOW number. They
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come out with an estimation on what they think GDP
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is going to come out for each quarter. They had
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it at two point six percent growth something like that
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for quarter one. Then after the tariffs came out, they
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had a negative two point one percent growth and the
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biggest revision in the history of that Atlanta Fed GDP
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now numbers. So there was a large expectation that we
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were going to see some real slow down in the
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economy and Jerome pal saying, we have not seen that
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as of yet.
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Well, he certainly has better numbers than we do. Makes
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like kind of whatever he says.
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Although some people say the FED drives a car by
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looking in the roof of your mirror.
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So it's certainly when it comes to interest rates, the
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Fed is the tail wagon the dog. There's no question
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about it. By the time they decide to move on
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interest rates, interest rates have already moved. Give you an example.
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We use the Vanguard Money market Fund for our excess
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cash because it's been paying a good rate to return.
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It was five percent six months ago. This week three point.
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Nine three point nine on the Vanguard.
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Yep, that's how much interest rates had come down, three
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point nine.
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Remember the Vanguards, they just roll one to three month treasuries.
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It's all they're doing. So it's a good measure of
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what's going on with short term rates. I'm sure we
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saw a short term race. The two year three point
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nine to four at the close on Friday, the ten
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year four and a quarter. Those are down twenty basis
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points from two weeks go, so we are seeing a
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fairly significant slide in interest rates. We saw a mortgage
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refinancial to pick.
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Up what's our ten two years spread? Right now?
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Well, you're at four and a quarter to so twenty
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unite basis points.
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It's not much. We have a pretty flat curve.
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Across the Yeah, but after being flat for what nineteen
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twenty months inverted inverted, right, it's nice to see a
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normal yield curve yeap.
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And then, like you're saying, the thirty year mortgage Mac
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Mac mortgage rates seem to Freddie macmorts rates seem to
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be coming down six point five in there around right now. So,
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I mean, but I'm seeing a lot of reports. Six
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and a half isn't enough for this housing industry to
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keep moving. I mean, at least the new home sales side.
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We're still seeing existing home sales be pretty decent, but
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I think it's largely because of the one million plus
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home sales. Those people are doing just fine right now.
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It's the people that rely on interest rates that are
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having a really hard time purchasing those new.
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Homes, certainly locally. That's what's happening, is is the people
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that are trying to sell homes in the four or
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five six hundred thousand range, they are sitting on the
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market for quite some time, whereas the million dollar homes,
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if they're in a great location and really going fast
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kill for sure again, this inflection California continues and maybe
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even picked up a little steam with the fires. I
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don't know, that's kind of the thinking.
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And you know what we've seen through the middle of
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February two the middle of March now is the volatility index,
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the VIX. This is what measures the volatility on the
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S and P five hundred and volatility is just saying
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how much are stocks going up and down? How many
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shrech shares are being traded, and so the more and
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more shares being traded, it's to sign a fear uncertainty
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in the market. And so we've had the VIX. Normally
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it's around the twelve to fourteen, but it's spiked up
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to the high. I think it was around twenty seven
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week so ago, but it's staying in those twenties now.
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So there's definitely a lot of still uncertainty in the
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market where investors not sure we're going to be headed next.
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The VIX is the volatility index. As Todd said, they
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use puts and calls, a very sophisticated formula to come
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up with that number, but it just gives you a
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sense of the volatility of the market. I think back
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in eight it jumped up to eighty or some silly thing,
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but you're right, twelve to fourteen, normal, fifteen in there.
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Yeah, started the week off at what twenty eight's and
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finished the week off at nineteen. If you guys remember
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last year the yen carry trades spiked it up all
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the way to sixty six over nineteen, remember.
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That really quick for like two days absolutely two days
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ago it came right back down. Yeah, it was just
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a matter of days, wasn't it.
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And when we talk about Volatiley, we talk about risk,
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and that's where we'll bring in this disclaimer. The show
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is sponsored by Greenberg Financial Group and you can listen
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on seven ninety KNSD or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different
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investment products and strategies. Every product and strategy has some
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type of inherent risk, and we strongly encourage our listeners
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to properly understand these risks to determine whether to buy, sell,
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or hold. The show has been on the air for
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over thirty years. Book Financial Group is redshirt with the
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sec You can visit our website Greenbrik Financial dot com
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for more information. Obviously, we have our YouTube page that
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you can access for all of our TV shows. But
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we are on KVO Way Sunday mornings after Meet the
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Press as well as Sunday nights after the ten o'clock news.
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We have our flagship show on Sunday that you're listening
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to right now, but also we have Saturday shows on
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KNST that if you want to listen to their at
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around six to twelve and things like that. Where are
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we at now, We're at.
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Six thirty, eight am, eight thirty am, eleven AM and
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eleven thirty am. The eight am and eight thirty am
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shows we cycle through and sometimes you'll hear Jonathan Sabilia,
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our estate planner here in the house.
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We got a lot of information for you all anywhere
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you want. We just Dave does his newsletter every single month.
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I do mine as well. We release that so if
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you want to get signed up for that, you go
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to our website at the very bottom of the site
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you can sign up for the newsletter. But obviously if
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you want to take advantage of our free financial plan
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we've been doing a lot lately. This week was pretty crazy.
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Dave felt I felt.
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Back to back NonStop.
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It's unbelievable.
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Yeah, and especially with this market. It keeps you busy
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throughout the day.
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Well, and I don't wonder why when I when I
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I've said in on a few of those are just
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they're so sophisticated, they're so cool, and they're free. It's ridiculous.
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I mean, I remember I've worked for a couple other
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firms in town over my long career, and two and
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three thousand dollars was not an unusual price to have
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to pay for what you guys do for nothing.
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Yeah, And honestly, I start to realize with all like
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you're saying, the sophistication, why some people do charge because
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it is a lot of work. You know, we put
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in a lot of work for these plans and the proposals,
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but ultimately sometimes, yeah, it's completely free. And that's and
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that's the risk we take because we know that at
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the end of the day, our job as educators and
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to educate you. You can take the plan and do
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it yourself if you really feel comfortable to do it,
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but ultimately, we just want to have the opportunity to say,
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if you wanted to use us, this is how it
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would be.
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And whether you're in your accumulation phase or decumulation phase
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of your financial life. Whether you're twenty six or sixty
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or a better retire the financial plan works for you.
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We just had somebody that was about twenty six years
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old come in and we scoped out exactly what he's
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spent it, and he had no idea exactly what he
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was spending. His jaw dropped, you know, and he's talking
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about wanting to buy a house in the next couple
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of years. And it was a reality check for this
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guy to come in and say, oh, you know, I
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do make a good amount of money, but I'm not
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allocating it properly to achieve my goals.
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Excellent. Well, we're about ten minutes into the show and
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we haven't even done the market yet.
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That's a let's talk about it. The Dow Jones was
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up one point two percent this week. That S and
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P five hundred was up half a percent this week.
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The NASDAC went up twenty basis points two tenths, Russell
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two thousand small caps went up point four percent on
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the week, and the RSP equal weighted S and P
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five hundred went up point six percent. It's really interesting
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to see again that RSP only down eight tenths of
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a percentage on the year, while you have that S
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and P five hundred dragging us down three point six percent.
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Well, the NASDAK down eight percent.
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You know what that tells you, of course, is the
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is the RSP equal weight to every single stock, whereas
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the S and P, the NASDAK overweighted those technology names.
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So it really isn't when you look at the market
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down three point six on the S and P five
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that's not really what is down. What the market is
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down the RSP the equal weight of down point eight
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that's really what the market's down for the year.
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Yeah, and to be fair, you know, December wasn't a
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great month off the high. S and P is down
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about eight percent, right, so we thought around ten percent.
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I think we got to that teen percent number at
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one point intra week, but that was really what we've
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expected ten to fifteen percent. We at least got a
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ten percent pullback. This might be the jump off point,
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but realistically, I think we've been talking for a while.