Jan. 12, 2025

Money Matters: Inauguration Insights and Market Moves Ahead of Trump's First 100 Days

Money Matters: Inauguration Insights and Market Moves Ahead of Trump's First 100 Days
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Money Matters: Inauguration Insights and Market Moves Ahead of Trump's First 100 Days
Money Matters: Inauguration Insights and Market Moves Ahead of Trump's First 100 Days

In this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, we explore the investment landscape as the nation prepares for Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration. We discuss where investors are placing their bets as markets anticipate...

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In this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, we explore the investment landscape as the nation prepares for Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration. We discuss where investors are placing their bets as markets anticipate the policies of Trump's first 100 days in office. Plus, we analyze the sell-off that capped the week, triggered by a hotter-than-expected labor report, and what "higher for longer" interest rates could mean for stocks and the broader economy. Stay informed on the key factors shaping the financial markets this week!
If you would like to contact us to learn more about our firm and our process call us at 520.544.4909 or go to our website at www.Greenbergfinancial.com or email us at Contact@Greenbergfinancial.com

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Good morning everybody.

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It's that time, Sunday morning, eight o'clock right here, seven

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to ninety okns T. This is Dean Greenberg with the

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Money Matter Show. We're going to try to talk to

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you about what's going on, try to help you out

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and then give you some insight.

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It probably will help you get through.

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So, as you know, the markets went down this week

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again and we were looking for this.

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There's only down two percent. Okay, it's a lot and you.

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Lose money, but this is just the what you need

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in this type of volatility. If you remember the last

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couple of shows we talked about volatility, we talked about

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the market's probably giving us a decline, mitigate your risk,

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have cash on the side, cut back some positions, and wait.

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Patience is very, very, very important. So what do I

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think on a short term basis? Right now, on a

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short term basis, I think we probably have a maybe

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a little bit more ago, maybe not, with a little bounce,

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and then fall off again into the end of January

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and until February.

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And I can see us putting it a.

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Bottom at a lower place in sometime mid February to

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end of February and start working a way out back

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into March, in April and all. So look for opportunities

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on a decline, but don't stop doing it yet. If

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you haven't raised any money, if you haven't done anything,

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you're going to have an opportunity here. I think over

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the next maybe few trading days or whatever, this bounce occurs,

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but it's going to be a lower high, and then

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we're going to make it lower low, and then somewhere

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in there we'll find a pattern to buy what is

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creating this Well, on Friday, the job market came out

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and said two hundred and I think it was fifty

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nine thousand jobs, a lot more than anybody expected. And

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it's a hot economy, which tells you what. The Fed

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doesn't have to lower rates. In fact, people are now

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concerned they might have to raise rate because we will

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have inflation. We talked about this, We talked about how

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the why the Fed had lower rates before was beyond

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our imagination. We didn't understand it. We said that the

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markets aren't going to like the fact that if they

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go start having to go the other way. And the

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markets were telling you by interest rates, you saw them

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creeping up every time they Fed lower the rates that

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it was not the right thing to do, but that's

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what they did, and that's the scenario or in and

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now we have to deal with it. So they if

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we stay in this scenario, we're gonna have bounces, but

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the markets are gonna go lower with the anticipation of

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having to maybe low raise rates. The other confusion that's

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gonna be in there is when Trump comes in, you're

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still hearing about tariffs, You're hearing about this and having

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about that. You're going to see a ninety one hundred

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day plan. You're going to see it being very aggressive,

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and you're going to see the other side come out

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and say this is inflationary, this is this, this is crazy.

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This kid is not gonna work. And that's gonna spook

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the markets again. They weren't worried about Biden's inflation, but

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they're worried about what Trump might happen or whatever. But

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I'd rather have a business person not only in the

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White House, but in the Cabinet and every place else,

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billionaires who people don't want to talk about. They're making

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decisions on how we're going to fix this. We don't

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want to kill the economy. We just want to get

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inflation down. Well, it's real simple. You know how you

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get inflation down, demand and supply. You get more of

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a supply, you get equal to the demand. Prices stop

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going up. Eventually, prices start coming down. You stop raising

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minimum wages all over the place, You stop having to

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raise prices at every time. You turn around, and prices

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come down. We need a pause here so earnings can

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catch up. Your social security even though they've given you

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a cola, costs of living increase. Okay, guess what, it's

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not keeping up with the inflation and that we've had

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over the last four years, so you're still behind. You

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still can't buy the things you need to do. This

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will be fixed, regulations will be fixed. We will get

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energy prices down. When this happens, and the markets anticipate this,

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that's what make the markets go up to make new

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heights again. When the markets fall like this and the

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Dow Jones keep falling like this, it's a great time

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that you don't have to buy individual stocks by the indexes,

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especially the big stocks.

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Like in the Dow Jones. If you don't have an

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air to it. You know why.

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And I say this a lot, and I hope it

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sticks in the Dow Jones will always go up eventually

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and make a new high. The Dow Jones will always

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go up and make a new high. And that's the

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easiest one to know that would be the case. Why

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because when there's stocks that are not performing in the

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Dow Jones, what do they do. They removed them and

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they bring in the hottest stock that's doing well where

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the new economy is like bringing in the video, and

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then the Dow Jones will work out well until the

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video is no longer working. Remember Ge was in the

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Dow Jones forever until they were underperforming and they took

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them out and they put somebody else in. Don't be

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surprised to see Intel out soon and replace with a

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different technomy company that will be there. The Apple was

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not always in, all right, Walgreens was in. They took

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Walgreens out, they put something else in. The Dow Jones

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is just an index. When the index is not performing,

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and where there's stocks in the index that are not

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performing or the economy is changing, which means those are

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the companies that are getting hot, they change what goes

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into the Dow and thus when buying comes back in,

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the Dow comes up and eventually makes a new high.

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So put that in the back of your mind. It's

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a great way to know. If I want to have

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to see growth and I want to see stuff, you

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buy the Dow Jones when he gets knocked down hard.

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You know eventually at some time in the future, just

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got to wait it out. It'll make a new high

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and keep going from there. So with the market's all

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down now for the week of almost two percent, that

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down one percent now for the year, we haven't had

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a lot of trading days. We've been in this about

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a week and a half. Let's see where it goes.

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I would not be surprised if we see a bounce

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in the marketplace. Understand how to mitigate risk. Okay, it's

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just not a word. It's something that you have to

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look to do. That doesn't mean you don't lose. You

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will lose when it's going down, but you will mitigate risk,

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which means you don't lose as much. You can buy

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puts with your insurance. You can sell calls, which reduces

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the amount that you can lose. You can go buy

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the inverse funds, you can buy the inverse individual stock funds.

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There's a lot of things you can do to hedge

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your portfolio, but the biggest and easiest thing to do

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is to raise your cash position. If you'd like to

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be sixty seventy percent invested, go to fifty, go to

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forty five.

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The way, if it falls.

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Down, you got ten twenty thousand percent sitting in cash,

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earning four and a half percent or more. Right now,

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that you can put the work when the markets fall

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and just buy indexes if that's what you want. Does

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it take some work, yes, If you don't want to

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do the work, it's someone to do it and pay them.

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I mean now, fees are so low they average probably

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one percent across the board. Some are higher for the

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It depends on how much you have. Of course, if

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you have over a million, it's a one percent or less.

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If it's less than a million, is one in a

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quarter one and a half. Depending how much you have,

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that's a very small amount of money for someone else

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to be able to make these decisions, and you don't

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have to worry about it, because what happens is stress

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is the worst when the markets go down, because you

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start trying to make decisions on something you might not

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know about, and if you make the wrong decision. Like

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you get out in the market's giralley, you get upset.

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If you stay in and the markets go down, you

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get upset. But if you don't have to worry about it,

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and you know you did your plan, your financial plan,

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you're going to be in great shape. And that's why

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we've evolved into a family office, a true family office.

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Most of the time you hear what a family office is,

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it's someone that has money in office and they have

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all the people doing their taxes, they're investing, they're planning, alternavent,

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you name it to doing it. Well, we've done it

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for the smaller investor. You don't need fifty one hundred

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a billion dollars to have a family office. We've made

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our office a family office. We do the financial planning,

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we do the money management, We understand what your risk

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tolerance is, and we do it on an individual basis.

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We also work with our legal people that do a

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state planning, and then we do taxes all out of

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our office.

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Out of our office.

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That's the way we wanted to grow the company, and

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that's the way we are going to company. And that

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gives you the ability to know and trust the people

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that you're dealing with and all it is is, you know,

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we've had more people come in and do financial plans

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that I can believe. I mean, you know, the financial

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plans of yesteryear used to be just to go ahead

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and do a financial plan, and then they wanted to

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sell your protection and insurance and nothing else. The way

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we do the financial plan is trying to show you

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when your money's going to run out if you keep

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spending at a certain level, and what the odds are

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for doing that, or if you're not and you're in

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great shape, you're never going to run out of money,

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and you don't have to worry about the stress. We

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get to the point that you don't have to be

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stressed out. It's a very important part of what we do.

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And then we actually manage it. We don't give it

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off to somebody else. We manage it ourselves. We take

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the accountability. I've said this for twenty five years. It's

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not the person that tells you what to do that

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I respect. It's the person that presses the button and

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takes accountability for the prices you buy and the prices

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you sell and the returns on the account. How you

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do it with the people's are risk tolerance involved. Those

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are the people I respect in our business. There's tons

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of people out there newslat is economists telling you what

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they think. We tell you what we think. Whatever I

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think doesn't matter. It's how I handle it. Remember, I

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think the market's going down, we mitigate risk. If the

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market goes up, we're not doing as well. If the

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market goes down and we're mitigating risk, we're losing less,

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which is great.

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But when do we get out and when do we

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turn to go the other way?

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That's on us. A lot of people don't like that pressure.

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I don't look at as pressure. I look at it

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as what we do. Because of her experience doing this

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for managing money for almost forty years, teaching the young

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guys how to manage money, building a firm that's a

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total team effort, understanding the financial plan, knowing that everybody's

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a little bit different, Everyone has a little different risk tolerance,

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different goals, different needs.

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That's the trick to the whole thing.

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Knowing that you can make that relationship based on the

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people you're dealing with, and that's how we build it.

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This how we built the firm.

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We've built it since nineteen eighty eight right here in Tucson, Arizona,

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when I came in and said, I'm going to be

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on the other side of that seat. I'm gonna do

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something different over that desk, and I'm going to build

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a firm, fee based business on what clients want. Be

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on the same side as the client, not the broker,

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not the broker dealer, not the business. Be on the

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same side as the client, which means get rid of commissions.

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What do the commissions do? In your mind, It's like, okay,

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I got to buy this guy to sell that, and

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commissions used to be a lot higher than they are now.

231
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What all commissions do is create a scenario that you

232
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are in a position to benefit. In the person's mind, Okay,

233
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I sold this. If it goes up, why do you

234
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sell it if it goes down? Okay, thank you. If

235
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you buy something, it's what you then you do it.

236
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If you're selling something to buy, that's a double commission.

237
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That's what's on their mind. But if you're doing it

238
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without commission, if you're doing it because the only way

239
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you're going to make money is by fee, you're now

240
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on the same side as the client. If the client's

241
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portfolio grows, your percentage of the fee will grow. If

242
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the percentage of the portfolio goes down, you will see

243
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that go down. Also, that's what happens. Your fee goes down,

244
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the amount of money off the fie goes down if

245
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the portfolio goes down. So you're constantly looking to grow.

246
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When you make a decision as a portfolio manager for

247
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a client, you're making that decision with only one reason

248
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to benefit the client. Because you benefit the client and

249
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the works it benefits you as a firm. That's why

250
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we make decisions, That's why we do what we do,

251
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and that's why at the end of the day, it's

252
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hard for everyone, but we've been able to deal with

253
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it because we know we're doing the right thing.

254
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When you know you're trying to do.

255
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The right thing all the time for the client and

256
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you're on the same side as the client, it makes everything,

257
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every allocation, everything we do a lot easier. Do we

258
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lose money, Yeah, of course we can lose money. Everyone

259
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can lose money, But what do you do about it

260
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when it's not going We change, change the portfolio, change

261
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what we're in, mitigate more, mitigate less, change the industries,

262
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change the indexes, change something. Just don't sit there. Everyone

263
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that uses the excuse, well, it always comes back. Don't

264
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worry about it, and haven't done anything, hasn't cut back position,

265
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hasn't raised cash when the market goes down.

266
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I have a problem with that.

267
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When the markets are going up and everyone just says, oh,

268
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just sit there, don't worry. What what have you done? Sure,

269
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sometimes it's best not to do anything and it just

270
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keeps going. But there's always opportunities, and the prudent investor knows.

271
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Reduce your allocations. Don't be over allocated in anyone industry

272
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or anyone stock or any anything else. Indexes are fine.

273
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You can have more more in indexes because those are

274
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broad based. S and P five hundred has five hundred stocks.

275
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If you add twenty twenty five thirty percent in the

276
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S and P okay, I can handle that. But there's

277
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also ways to mitigate that risk. And that's what you

278
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have to learn. So as we move forward here, why

279
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am I so, I guess excited about the future when

280
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everyone else is looking how negative there it's going to be.

281
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I'm excited because I know we can fall here, and

282
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I'm out worried about that.

283
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Other than on a short term basis, because.

284
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I do believe that the markets over the next three years,

285
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once any decline we have and we have to shake

286
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out here, will do well once we have the new

287
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his plan in plants. And when I say business plan,

288
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I mean the economic plan of the Trump administration. Lowering

289
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taxes is a good thing. Bringing businesses back and giving

290
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them incentive is a good thing. Have a manufacturing grow

291
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in the right way is a good thing. Reducing energy

292
00:15:20.720 --> 00:15:28.200
prices is a good thing. Having an immigration bill is

293
00:15:28.240 --> 00:15:31.279
a good thing. Shutting down the border from illegals coming

294
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across is a good thing. As long as we now

295
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have to put a plan in on how we're going

296
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to bring in people legally and help them benefit the

297
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United States. These are good things getting Reducing the crime

298
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in cities is a good thing, and you know what.

299
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You get.

300
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And it's just such a shame that what we're seeing

301
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what's going on in California right now, the fires. I'm

302
00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:05.919
not a fireman, I'm not the first one to tell

303
00:16:05.960 --> 00:16:08.960
you that, but I understand one thing. Talking to people,

304
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there's maintenance that has to be done. If you don't

305
00:16:12.559 --> 00:16:18.080
do the maintenance, then the problems arise. And it's behooves

306
00:16:18.120 --> 00:16:22.399
me not to understand how they don't do the underbrush.

307
00:16:22.639 --> 00:16:28.080
It just makes sense, especially where you know there's some

308
00:16:28.120 --> 00:16:30.320
of these other fires we've had, we know they came

309
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from underbrush. That's called maintenance work. It helps against fires

310
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spreading like the way they've done. I don't get it.

311
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I don't get when they cut back and all they

312
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want to say is climate change. It's class you know,

313
00:16:43.720 --> 00:16:45.000
how is this climate change?

314
00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:50.840
This fire? This fire was brought on by a dry area?

315
00:16:51.200 --> 00:16:52.320
What dry all the time?

316
00:16:52.399 --> 00:16:52.600
Right?

317
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We need to do maintenance too. Everyone has to do it.

318
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There's ways to do things. Does it cost money?

319
00:16:58.799 --> 00:16:59.279
It does.

320
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But when you're taking money and you put it in

321
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in areas of sanctuary cities and not doing the things

322
00:17:04.799 --> 00:17:08.200
you need to do to protect the other stuff, this

323
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is what ends up happening, and I don't want to

324
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see it happening anymore.

325
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You don't shut down the border.

326
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What happens is we have more and more crime in

327
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the United States if you don't do something on the subways.

328
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But yet you're starting to hit New York with a

329
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nine dollar congestion tax every time you go somewhere downtown.

330
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That doesn't help.

331
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People don't want to go on the subways because of

332
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the crime, So they're gonna end up trying to pay

333
00:17:34.759 --> 00:17:36.920
nine dollars and then be all.

334
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Upset about that.

335
00:17:38.640 --> 00:17:42.000
There's got to be better solutions than what we look at,

336
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better solutions on how we handle things before things happen.

337
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And we got to stop spending money in stupid ways

338
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and start spending money in the right ways.

339
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There's a lot of money to be.

340
00:17:55.680 --> 00:17:58.160
Mayor a lot of jobs to be put out there

341
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that people can make money. We started doing maintenance on underbrush.

342
00:18:02.519 --> 00:18:04.359
Maybe that's not what everybody wants to do, but that's

343
00:18:04.400 --> 00:18:09.400
what we need to do. People gotta stop getting handouts.

344
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People gotta stop giving giving stuff to people that don't

345
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need it, that just want it. The people that need

346
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we have to take care of. We talk about this

347
00:18:17.200 --> 00:18:18.960
all the time. Take care, take care of, take care

348
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of those that are in need. But those that are

349
00:18:22.400 --> 00:18:25.599
not in need, we need to get them educated to

350
00:18:25.680 --> 00:18:26.400
whatever it is.

351
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We need to increase the way people do trades.

352
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Now.

353
00:18:29.839 --> 00:18:32.680
We are so short on trades it's not even funny.

354
00:18:34.359 --> 00:18:38.039
Good plumbers, good electricians, good construction people. We are gonna

355
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have to rebuild California. There southern California. We're gonna have

356
00:18:43.720 --> 00:18:46.839
to rebuild that whole Los Angeles area. We're gonna have

357
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to build Ukraine. We're gonna have to build North Carolina.

358
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We build North Carolina. See where I'm going with this.

359
00:18:56.160 --> 00:18:57.960
If you don't want to go to college, if you

360
00:18:57.960 --> 00:19:01.200
don't want to learn white college stuff, start learning with

361
00:19:01.279 --> 00:19:04.119
your hands and become a trade. If you don't want

362
00:19:04.160 --> 00:19:07.839
to just be a nail banger, become an electrician, become

363
00:19:07.920 --> 00:19:13.240
a plumber. On do something and be mobile. Be mobile

364
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means go where the work is, Go where the work is.

365
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There's gonna be years and years of work to be done.

366
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Not to mention what we're gonna have to do to

367
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our own bridges and highways and tunnels.

368
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We got to bring them up to speed.

369
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If we don't, and we've talked about it forever, we

370
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are going to have a disaster and that's gonna be awful.

371
00:19:36.839 --> 00:19:41.480
We know there's weaknesses happening on these bridges. We know

372
00:19:41.559 --> 00:19:45.000
there's weaknesses happening in these tunnels. We have to find

373
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the right money for the right things, and those are

374
00:19:47.839 --> 00:19:51.559
jobs that people need to do and do them correctly.

375
00:19:52.359 --> 00:19:54.960
That helps us grow as a nation. We are so

376
00:19:55.119 --> 00:19:58.759
far behind when we talk about transportation. Of course, some

377
00:19:58.839 --> 00:20:02.960
of these other cities around the world, they are so

378
00:20:03.079 --> 00:20:06.359
far ahead of us. But you know what we can

379
00:20:06.400 --> 00:20:10.599
get there. So there's a lot of reasons. I'm very, very,

380
00:20:10.880 --> 00:20:14.799
very excited about what's gonna happen if we can implement

381
00:20:14.839 --> 00:20:15.359
these things.

382
00:20:17.799 --> 00:20:20.359
All we want to talk about is tarrists, taris, tariffs.

383
00:20:20.400 --> 00:20:23.440
Well, you don't what you're seeing the changeover in Canada already,

384
00:20:23.559 --> 00:20:25.440
and all we did was talk about tarifs. If you

385
00:20:25.480 --> 00:20:28.240
don't help us at the border. You've already seen some

386
00:20:28.359 --> 00:20:32.119
happenings in Mexico when we said help us, or you're

387
00:20:32.119 --> 00:20:34.799
gonna have taris because we want help at the border.

388
00:20:36.359 --> 00:20:39.079
There are ways that they're going to do it. Europe

389
00:20:39.119 --> 00:20:41.240
could say all they want. Let me tell you something.

390
00:20:41.640 --> 00:20:45.880
Look at what's happening in Germany. There's problems everywhere there.

391
00:20:45.920 --> 00:20:50.119
Greece had problems, Spain has problems, London, England has problems.

392
00:20:51.960 --> 00:20:55.599
Socialism does not work. We are still number one because

393
00:20:55.640 --> 00:20:59.480
we are the capitalistic country of the world. Curse whatever

394
00:20:59.480 --> 00:21:01.079
you want you want to it cost a couple of pigs.

395
00:21:01.200 --> 00:21:03.759
Then think twice about why you're here. All these people

396
00:21:03.759 --> 00:21:07.359
that say they want to leave and go go, It's okay.

397
00:21:08.359 --> 00:21:11.960
We're bringing people that want to be Americans, that understand

398
00:21:12.079 --> 00:21:15.319
the team effort, that understand will one country, that we

399
00:21:15.400 --> 00:21:18.440
fight for, what we do and how we're going to

400
00:21:18.559 --> 00:21:23.160
build America the right way. There's no reason we can't

401
00:21:23.160 --> 00:21:25.799
bring that back nuclear in the right way. There's no

402
00:21:25.880 --> 00:21:28.119
reason we can't do certain things in the right way

403
00:21:28.160 --> 00:21:30.680
that we haven't done. There's no reason why we can't

404
00:21:30.759 --> 00:21:36.759
drill off shore the right way. Everything has cause and effect.

405
00:21:37.359 --> 00:21:40.240
Everything has cause and effect, and when you're doing things

406
00:21:40.240 --> 00:21:42.440
for one reason, there's something else that's going to happen

407
00:21:42.440 --> 00:21:44.519
on the other way. If we start doing what I

408
00:21:44.599 --> 00:21:46.920
did with my business and put my clients first, and

409
00:21:47.000 --> 00:21:51.960
these politicians start putting the American people first, everyone else

410
00:21:52.000 --> 00:21:54.720
will benefit, not just the American people, but everybody else

411
00:21:54.759 --> 00:21:58.079
around us. The environment will benefit, the people around us

412
00:21:58.119 --> 00:22:01.759
will benefit, Mexico will benefit, Canada will benefit. The world

413
00:22:01.839 --> 00:22:06.000
would benefit when we as America are doing the right things.

414
00:22:06.519 --> 00:22:11.240
Very very important. Now as Trump gets closer and closer,

415
00:22:11.799 --> 00:22:16.240
it makes me just so happy to listen to him

416
00:22:16.759 --> 00:22:20.960
actually be transparent and talk. Whether you like what he

417
00:22:21.039 --> 00:22:23.920
says or how he says it or the way he

418
00:22:23.960 --> 00:22:27.960
says it. I don't care, because at least it was

419
00:22:28.039 --> 00:22:32.319
refreshing to see someone that's going to be our leader

420
00:22:32.920 --> 00:22:35.119
talk to the press for an hour, hour and a half,

421
00:22:35.160 --> 00:22:38.680
two hours, whatever it is, and answer the questions that

422
00:22:38.759 --> 00:22:41.480
he feels should be answered the way he wants to

423
00:22:41.519 --> 00:22:43.680
answer it and tell you to what he thinks.

424
00:22:44.000 --> 00:22:46.000
You might not like it, but at least you know

425
00:22:46.039 --> 00:22:46.559
where he is.

426
00:22:47.000 --> 00:22:49.640
He talked more in that one press conference the other

427
00:22:49.759 --> 00:22:55.119
day than Biden and Harris have talked in four years. Okay,

428
00:22:55.839 --> 00:22:58.119
we haven't heard anything from them about what would be

429
00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:00.519
going on, or what would they do, or how they

430
00:23:00.519 --> 00:23:03.440
would make solutions at all, So like you to not.

431
00:23:03.759 --> 00:23:07.200
At least we have a leader who has the qualities

432
00:23:08.079 --> 00:23:12.799
to bring people along, mostly because he's willing to tell

433
00:23:12.880 --> 00:23:16.359
us what he believes, what he thinks, and how he's

434
00:23:16.400 --> 00:23:17.440
going to get it done.

435
00:23:17.759 --> 00:23:17.960
Now.

436
00:23:18.000 --> 00:23:20.559
He knows it's going to be a fight in Congress,

437
00:23:20.599 --> 00:23:22.640
and that is one of the reasons he continue wants

438
00:23:22.680 --> 00:23:24.880
to use the power to get them to vote.

439
00:23:24.680 --> 00:23:26.759
In the right way. Now everyone is going to be

440
00:23:26.759 --> 00:23:27.720
on board with everything.

441
00:23:27.759 --> 00:23:30.480
We get that, but we have to get things through

442
00:23:31.119 --> 00:23:33.559
and right now it's got to be basically sixty five

443
00:23:33.640 --> 00:23:36.720
seventy percent the right and the thirty and the thirty

444
00:23:36.799 --> 00:23:39.599
thirty five percent give something and the left has to

445
00:23:39.640 --> 00:23:42.319
get some. That's the compromise. Sorry, guys, the right one.

446
00:23:42.359 --> 00:23:45.480
This time, the right gets the majority of the compromise,

447
00:23:45.799 --> 00:23:48.559
but there has to be compromised right across the board.

448
00:23:49.160 --> 00:23:51.079
You don't, You're not going to bring it along. And

449
00:23:51.119 --> 00:23:53.480
what's going to happen is the people kicking and screaming.

450
00:23:53.839 --> 00:23:56.359
As things start turning the way they should, most of

451
00:23:56.400 --> 00:23:58.440
them will come on board the other way. It's a

452
00:23:58.440 --> 00:24:00.920
four year deal right now, which let's give them the

453
00:24:01.079 --> 00:24:06.000
opportunity to shine or not doesn't shine boom, you know

454
00:24:06.000 --> 00:24:08.759
where the votes are going it he shines. Great, We're

455
00:24:08.759 --> 00:24:12.119
gonna have another eight years of getting better and moving forward.

456
00:24:12.160 --> 00:24:14.039
I'm tired of going back and forth. I'm sure you

457
00:24:14.079 --> 00:24:17.559
are too. Money Matter Show. Stay tuned. Remember everything has risk.

458
00:24:17.920 --> 00:24:21.119
Understand your risk before the investing, and we'll be back.

459
00:24:21.359 --> 00:24:23.920
Thank you so much for listening to The Money Matter Show.

460
00:24:25.200 --> 00:24:27.920
Welcome back. This is the Money Matter Show. Sunday morning.

461
00:24:28.519 --> 00:24:30.200
Here we are a big story of the week. This

462
00:24:30.359 --> 00:24:36.079
was easy this week Los Angeles. Wow. But it's hard

463
00:24:36.119 --> 00:24:39.799
to even imagine being a part of that, although I

464
00:24:40.680 --> 00:24:43.359
over there four or five six times a year, and

465
00:24:43.480 --> 00:24:50.319
I have been babysitting to infants when we received evacuation notification,

466
00:24:50.400 --> 00:24:55.079
So I've been there, done that. What a horrible way

467
00:24:55.119 --> 00:24:58.039
to live. Do you have to be thinking about that?

468
00:24:58.400 --> 00:24:59.839
Was your daughter affected in anywhere?

469
00:25:00.359 --> 00:25:03.079
No, she's down in Orange County, which is about seventy

470
00:25:03.079 --> 00:25:06.759
five eighty miles south. But so many homes lost, so

471
00:25:06.920 --> 00:25:10.720
much tragedy, so many of the places that we went

472
00:25:10.839 --> 00:25:14.680
in Santa Monica and Malibu, and they are gone. They're

473
00:25:14.720 --> 00:25:15.160
just gone.

474
00:25:15.279 --> 00:25:17.680
I mean, if you look at an aerial footage of

475
00:25:17.799 --> 00:25:21.039
Pacific Palisades, it looks like it's just flattened. Believe like

476
00:25:21.039 --> 00:25:21.880
a tornado went through it.

477
00:25:21.920 --> 00:25:24.759
Just crazy, Yeah, like it was bombed. Somebody said, it

478
00:25:24.839 --> 00:25:28.440
kind of looks a lot like a Ukraine. You know,

479
00:25:28.480 --> 00:25:30.400
if you look at some of those pictures, it's amazing

480
00:25:30.799 --> 00:25:34.240
what happened and how quickly it happened, and how you know,

481
00:25:34.279 --> 00:25:36.839
there's a lot of blame going on. Every everybody wants

482
00:25:36.960 --> 00:25:39.319
we're a country where we want someone to blame, right,

483
00:25:39.400 --> 00:25:42.119
And one person said, Okay, it was their fault, right,

484
00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:44.960
So the mayor of Los Angeles is getting the heat

485
00:25:45.039 --> 00:25:47.640
right now because she was in Ghana. Well, she didn't

486
00:25:47.839 --> 00:25:50.920
ask to go to Ghana. President Biden asked her to

487
00:25:50.960 --> 00:25:55.319
go to Ghana to attend the I get what an inauguration, right,

488
00:25:55.799 --> 00:25:58.279
So it wasn't like she knew this was going to happen,

489
00:25:58.319 --> 00:26:00.960
and so she needed to get out of town. With

490
00:26:01.119 --> 00:26:03.640
that said, she cut the budget of the of the

491
00:26:03.640 --> 00:26:08.359
fire department by several million dollars within the past twelve months.

492
00:26:08.359 --> 00:26:11.440
That's not playing real well right now. But I think

493
00:26:11.680 --> 00:26:13.920
I was saying to my daughter, you could have probably

494
00:26:14.000 --> 00:26:17.960
had five for six or seven times the firefighters that

495
00:26:18.039 --> 00:26:21.599
you had, and it would have made no difference. There's

496
00:26:21.720 --> 00:26:23.839
just nothing you can do when the wind's blown eighty

497
00:26:23.880 --> 00:26:26.200
to one hundred miles an hour, throwing embers all over

498
00:26:26.240 --> 00:26:31.160
the valley. It's just it's chaos, unbelievable. And I don't know.

499
00:26:31.640 --> 00:26:34.720
They will rebuild, it will come back, It'll be it'll

500
00:26:34.720 --> 00:26:36.960
be good. It's going to be really interesting though, to

501
00:26:37.039 --> 00:26:41.559
see what this does to the immigration from California to Arizona.

502
00:26:42.440 --> 00:26:45.799
Remember during the pandemic, they came by the hordes. I

503
00:26:45.880 --> 00:26:47.559
got a feeling that's going to start all over.

504
00:26:47.440 --> 00:26:49.319
It probably going to and then it's going to be

505
00:26:49.359 --> 00:26:52.119
probably by a lot of people that weren't directly affected

506
00:26:52.119 --> 00:26:53.839
by this, but they're saying, I'm going to get out now.

507
00:26:54.039 --> 00:26:57.720
Yeah. Yeah, I think it becomes a case of where

508
00:26:57.759 --> 00:27:02.240
is your family safe? But the first immigrant is the

509
00:27:03.279 --> 00:27:07.640
NFL game tonight between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los

510
00:27:07.680 --> 00:27:10.240
Angeles Rams, which is going to be played in Glendale.

511
00:27:11.200 --> 00:27:13.400
And why is it being played in Glendale Because that's

512
00:27:13.440 --> 00:27:14.359
where they're safe.

513
00:27:15.079 --> 00:27:16.839
And the Cardinals didn't make the playoffs.

514
00:27:17.079 --> 00:27:22.119
Oh, that's a shocker. I think a bigger story, Dylan

515
00:27:22.240 --> 00:27:24.079
might be that they did make the playoffs, right.

516
00:27:24.839 --> 00:27:26.119
And nowadays they're good.

517
00:27:26.359 --> 00:27:28.400
Fifteen years ago, yeah, they had it one year with

518
00:27:28.480 --> 00:27:30.960
Kurt Warner where they actually went to the Super Bowl, right,

519
00:27:32.319 --> 00:27:35.079
But other than that, it's been pretty dire. But anyway,

520
00:27:35.079 --> 00:27:37.319
our hearts are, our prayers are with the people in

521
00:27:37.359 --> 00:27:42.079
Los Angeles and as they rebuild and hopefully the winds

522
00:27:42.119 --> 00:27:45.440
die down and things calm down over there. And probably

523
00:27:45.519 --> 00:27:49.759
the one of the major beneficiaries, of course, from all

524
00:27:49.799 --> 00:27:53.559
of this will be the construction industry. Heard a lot

525
00:27:53.599 --> 00:27:56.759
of talk on Friday about home depot what do you

526
00:27:56.759 --> 00:27:57.480
guys think about that?

527
00:27:58.839 --> 00:28:04.160
Yeah, home depot lows the all the construction stuff should help.

528
00:28:04.160 --> 00:28:06.279
But I mean it happens a lot if you think,

529
00:28:06.279 --> 00:28:08.799
doesn't happen like this when a hurricane hits in flat

530
00:28:08.880 --> 00:28:12.039
Flats Florida, there's some people do extra good.

531
00:28:12.279 --> 00:28:15.599
Sure, And you wonder when I see these people recommending

532
00:28:15.640 --> 00:28:20.799
home deeople are home deepo Yeah? Home people right brain

533
00:28:20.839 --> 00:28:23.240
cramped there for men, I was thinking office deep boys off.

534
00:28:24.799 --> 00:28:28.559
When you see something like this, your first thought is, well, boy,

535
00:28:28.599 --> 00:28:31.880
that's a gigantic company located all over the country. Is

536
00:28:31.920 --> 00:28:35.160
that really going to make a major impact on their business?

537
00:28:35.599 --> 00:28:39.480
And my thought would be probably not just what.

538
00:28:39.440 --> 00:28:41.359
I'm thinking, it's not going to make a huge impact.

539
00:28:41.559 --> 00:28:43.599
The initial thought is exact because you see a huge

540
00:28:43.599 --> 00:28:48.279
disaster and it's all construction base moving forward. But the

541
00:28:48.359 --> 00:28:51.160
hurricane that hit North Carolina, that city got flatten, but

542
00:28:51.440 --> 00:28:53.599
not really. They weren't talking about it then because LA

543
00:28:53.680 --> 00:28:56.440
is bigger. Maybe, but we're.

544
00:28:56.200 --> 00:28:58.200
Looking at the it t B and the XHB and

545
00:28:58.359 --> 00:29:00.559
it's been selling off for quite a while. So it's

546
00:29:00.559 --> 00:29:02.960
definitely in place that i'd be interested in starting position

547
00:29:03.599 --> 00:29:06.480
in there. But I think the better idea or sector

548
00:29:06.519 --> 00:29:08.720
to think about in relation to this fire is the

549
00:29:08.799 --> 00:29:12.440
kie the insurance ETF. We saw that down two and

550
00:29:12.480 --> 00:29:14.880
a half percent today, which is a pretty big move

551
00:29:14.920 --> 00:29:17.880
for an ETF to make, and the insurance CTF has

552
00:29:17.880 --> 00:29:20.160
been selling off as a whole since it's hit all

553
00:29:20.200 --> 00:29:23.559
time highs. As we know, many insurance companies have increased

554
00:29:23.599 --> 00:29:27.559
their homeowners' policies largely due to some of the I

555
00:29:27.559 --> 00:29:30.640
mean Maui fires, but really California's had fires for a

556
00:29:30.640 --> 00:29:34.240
long time and that's been trickling over to our sector

557
00:29:34.559 --> 00:29:37.839
in Arizona. Some people have been getting their home insurance

558
00:29:38.400 --> 00:29:41.160
quotes that all of a sudden, say that's increased because

559
00:29:41.160 --> 00:29:44.200
they're in this wildfire area. Now we're not even really

560
00:29:44.240 --> 00:29:47.440
known for wildfires, but because of the prevalence in California,

561
00:29:47.759 --> 00:29:52.000
it's becoming a thing on policies here in Arizona. So

562
00:29:52.319 --> 00:29:55.480
you have this initial bad for insurance companies because they

563
00:29:55.480 --> 00:29:58.960
have to pay out from all these claims, right, but

564
00:29:59.119 --> 00:30:01.880
eventually they what do they do? They increase the premiums

565
00:30:01.880 --> 00:30:04.160
that everyone has to help pay for the fact that

566
00:30:04.160 --> 00:30:05.559
they had to pay out all of these So I

567
00:30:05.559 --> 00:30:08.799
think that initial drop in the insurance tiff will eventually

568
00:30:08.799 --> 00:30:12.200
be followed by a lot of increase in premiums, which

569
00:30:12.200 --> 00:30:14.799
woul probably bring it back to another new all time high.

570
00:30:15.000 --> 00:30:17.559
Kind of a license to print money in it. I mean,

571
00:30:18.400 --> 00:30:21.160
what happened in Florida, Well, a couple of earth a

572
00:30:21.160 --> 00:30:23.559
couple of hurricanes within a twenty four month period, and

573
00:30:23.599 --> 00:30:25.440
all of a sudden, nobody wants to write any insurance

574
00:30:25.440 --> 00:30:27.799
of any kind. I think that's probably what you're going

575
00:30:27.839 --> 00:30:30.559
to see in California, is that if you want to

576
00:30:30.599 --> 00:30:33.519
have homeowners and insurance, it's going to be without fire coverage, right.

577
00:30:34.039 --> 00:30:35.799
You know, yeah, you can get Homebold insurance, you just

578
00:30:35.839 --> 00:30:39.319
won't protect your case of fire. And the state of

579
00:30:39.359 --> 00:30:43.799
Florida actually had to establish their own insurance company to

580
00:30:43.920 --> 00:30:46.480
provide insurance for the people of the state of Florida

581
00:30:46.599 --> 00:30:50.880
because the companies all just said, yeah, that's okay, we're good.

582
00:30:52.000 --> 00:30:55.359
California is a big state. A lot of different topographies

583
00:30:55.359 --> 00:30:58.359
in California. A lot of places in California that have

584
00:30:58.480 --> 00:31:01.599
not been impacted by fire. My wildfire, right, but.

585
00:31:01.759 --> 00:31:04.160
Those are also more of the northern places that get

586
00:31:04.279 --> 00:31:07.440
a little more For San Diego, there are plenty of

587
00:31:07.480 --> 00:31:10.799
areas around San Diego. I've had really big wildfires in the.

588
00:31:10.759 --> 00:31:13.160
Last decaejority of California is the inland.

589
00:31:13.480 --> 00:31:16.079
Well, the reason California has this issue with wildfires is

590
00:31:16.079 --> 00:31:19.079
they do not protect They're a tinder box and they

591
00:31:19.079 --> 00:31:21.400
don't clean up the brush and they let it be

592
00:31:21.400 --> 00:31:23.720
because they're so environmentalists that they say, you can't cut

593
00:31:23.720 --> 00:31:26.160
down any dead trees. Well, dead trees are great fuel

594
00:31:26.200 --> 00:31:29.839
for fire, and you don't do anything with them. Eventually

595
00:31:29.839 --> 00:31:31.359
you're just one tinder box away.

596
00:31:32.400 --> 00:31:32.640
You know.

597
00:31:32.680 --> 00:31:35.759
That's the problem. They don't do what they're supposed to do,

598
00:31:36.039 --> 00:31:38.039
and that's what a lot of these reports are coming out.

599
00:31:38.400 --> 00:31:42.039
It was interesting to watch them as the fires were burning.

600
00:31:42.079 --> 00:31:43.599
Where do you go, Well, the first thing you do

601
00:31:43.720 --> 00:31:45.960
is go okay with these home deeopo, and oh, by

602
00:31:46.000 --> 00:31:47.880
the way, we need to get rid of the utility

603
00:31:48.440 --> 00:31:52.240
the services Los Angeles because that's always that's been one

604
00:31:52.279 --> 00:31:54.359
of the primary people to blame. You know, we want

605
00:31:54.359 --> 00:31:57.319
somebody to blame. So the utility company must have been

606
00:31:57.400 --> 00:32:01.000
something with a wire that's sparked and that set it off,

607
00:32:01.039 --> 00:32:05.359
and who knows, who knows, But we saw that in Paradise, California,

608
00:32:06.079 --> 00:32:08.759
where the utility company became vulnerable. We saw it in

609
00:32:08.799 --> 00:32:13.079
Maui where the utility company Darnia went under Hawaiian and

610
00:32:13.079 --> 00:32:14.839
now we're seeing it in southern California.

611
00:32:14.880 --> 00:32:17.599
There's also been reports that it's been arson So there's

612
00:32:17.759 --> 00:32:21.160
a lot of investigations on how these things actually got started.

613
00:32:21.200 --> 00:32:24.119
But like you said, also it's it's all over the place,

614
00:32:24.160 --> 00:32:27.079
So whether then all you know, arsonists take advantage of

615
00:32:27.079 --> 00:32:29.759
this opportunity as chaos and then try to start out

616
00:32:30.559 --> 00:32:33.920
within it. There's there's definitely some foul play going on

617
00:32:34.000 --> 00:32:36.440
at this point. You can tell. It's just how sick

618
00:32:36.440 --> 00:32:38.880
would you have to be? There's a lot of sick

619
00:32:38.880 --> 00:32:40.960
people out there, and people like to watch the world burn.

620
00:32:41.079 --> 00:32:43.240
Yeah, especially when you have fifteen million people.

621
00:32:43.519 --> 00:32:45.759
Yeah, you're going to have five or six of the

622
00:32:46.160 --> 00:32:47.759
in the fifteen million that are.

623
00:32:48.480 --> 00:32:51.880
Like angry, angry that can think like that, are angry

624
00:32:51.920 --> 00:32:53.839
about something so like it real or imagined.

625
00:32:53.880 --> 00:32:56.400
If my house burns down, now I have to file

626
00:32:56.759 --> 00:32:59.279
insurance claim and wait for building permits in order to

627
00:32:59.279 --> 00:33:02.279
start reconstruct. Obviously that's I mean, yeah, what are you

628
00:33:02.279 --> 00:33:04.759
looking at a year, a year, a year out?

629
00:33:04.920 --> 00:33:07.200
Probably, Yeah, you have to find some place you still

630
00:33:07.200 --> 00:33:10.440
got to contain it too, right. These fires aren't necessarily done.

631
00:33:10.559 --> 00:33:13.319
We'll look contained. There's some that are seventy five percent,

632
00:33:13.359 --> 00:33:14.880
but there's others that are only five percent.

633
00:33:15.200 --> 00:33:17.720
I think Friday night endo Saturday, the window was supposed

634
00:33:17.759 --> 00:33:21.359
to pick up again. We'll have to see. We may

635
00:33:21.400 --> 00:33:23.559
be reading about this for a few more days.

636
00:33:23.680 --> 00:33:25.039
Before we go any further. I'm going to do the

637
00:33:25.079 --> 00:33:27.440
disclaimer real quick, go for The show is sponsored by

638
00:33:27.480 --> 00:33:29.160
the Green Brig Financial Group and you can listen on

639
00:33:29.200 --> 00:33:32.400
seven to ninety KNSD or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different

640
00:33:32.400 --> 00:33:35.480
investment products and strategies. Every product and strategy have some

641
00:33:35.480 --> 00:33:37.960
type of inherent risk, and we strongly encourage our listeners

642
00:33:38.000 --> 00:33:41.759
to properly understand this risk to determine whether to buy, sell,

643
00:33:41.880 --> 00:33:43.559
or hold. The show has been on air for over

644
00:33:43.599 --> 00:33:45.799
thirty years. The Green Brik Financial Group is registered with

645
00:33:45.839 --> 00:33:48.519
the SEC and a member of FINRA and SIPIK. This

646
00:33:48.640 --> 00:33:50.720
is our website at Greenbrik Financial dot com. For some

647
00:33:50.720 --> 00:33:52.920
more information, give us a call five two zero five

648
00:33:52.920 --> 00:33:54.440
for four four nine zero nine.

649
00:33:54.720 --> 00:33:55.200
Good job.

650
00:33:55.319 --> 00:34:00.440
Another news in economic way is the jobs report much

651
00:34:00.440 --> 00:34:02.680
hotter than expected. It was coming at two hundred and

652
00:34:02.680 --> 00:34:04.799
fifty six thousand when he expected one hundred and fifty

653
00:34:04.799 --> 00:34:08.239
five thousand. Shut up Friday wasn't very good. And that's

654
00:34:08.280 --> 00:34:10.760
the reason. That's the main reason why, because investors not

655
00:34:10.840 --> 00:34:13.199
think there's less of a chance that the Fed will

656
00:34:13.239 --> 00:34:15.559
cut rates this year or how many rate cuts they

657
00:34:15.559 --> 00:34:15.920
will have.

658
00:34:16.480 --> 00:34:19.920
So we've been we've been complaining about the rate cuts.

659
00:34:20.280 --> 00:34:21.920
That's the first one.

660
00:34:22.159 --> 00:34:23.360
This is just last year.

661
00:34:23.239 --> 00:34:27.000
Too quick, too much. And that's what's happening so far

662
00:34:27.039 --> 00:34:31.039
as is the race cuts have actually reignited inflation to

663
00:34:31.079 --> 00:34:34.920
some extent already, and if defended by the policies of

664
00:34:34.960 --> 00:34:37.800
Trump two point zero if, and of course you never

665
00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:40.760
know because a lot of what he does our trial balloons,

666
00:34:40.760 --> 00:34:42.760
where he sends up a trial balloon, sees kind of

667
00:34:42.800 --> 00:34:45.800
sees how it feels and how people react to it.

668
00:34:45.880 --> 00:34:49.719
So what actually happens in terms of tariffs or increased

669
00:34:49.719 --> 00:34:52.159
prices or that sort of thing is yet to be seen.

670
00:34:52.199 --> 00:34:55.239
But that certainly is on the horizon and coming up

671
00:34:55.280 --> 00:34:59.280
pretty darn fast here. January twentieth, not that far off.

672
00:35:00.320 --> 00:35:02.800
I saw Trump was back in Washington this past week

673
00:35:03.599 --> 00:35:07.000
and had mania with him.

674
00:35:07.159 --> 00:35:11.800
Big news next to Obama at Jimmy Carter's funeral. They

675
00:35:11.840 --> 00:35:15.559
look buddy, buddy. Yeah, Kamala Harris wasn't too happy.

676
00:35:15.679 --> 00:35:15.840
Yeah.

677
00:35:15.840 --> 00:35:17.920
I saw a lot of people left sided. People on

678
00:35:17.960 --> 00:35:20.000
Twitter just getting upset about that, and it's like, come on,

679
00:35:20.360 --> 00:35:24.039
like there, professionals, they can have a conversation next next.

680
00:35:23.920 --> 00:35:26.239
To each other, because Trump is city next.

681
00:35:26.039 --> 00:35:28.719
To Obama, should not be talking to Trump.

682
00:35:29.440 --> 00:35:31.280
The ten year is above that four point seventy five.

683
00:35:31.320 --> 00:35:34.519
That's a big number. It's where you put a lot

684
00:35:34.519 --> 00:35:36.760
of pressure on everything and at this point where at

685
00:35:37.039 --> 00:35:39.519
levels that we haven't seen since October of twenty twenty

686
00:35:39.559 --> 00:35:40.400
three on the ten year.

687
00:35:40.559 --> 00:35:43.519
Yeah, it's good, it's definitely making it. We'll be back

688
00:35:43.559 --> 00:35:45.039
right after this break. I want to talk a little

689
00:35:45.039 --> 00:35:46.679
bit more about that because it's really important.

690
00:35:47.880 --> 00:35:49.719
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

691
00:35:49.760 --> 00:35:52.880
Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Sebastian Borssini, and

692
00:35:53.000 --> 00:35:55.840
David Sherwood. We were talking about rates hitting at the

693
00:35:55.920 --> 00:35:59.239
highest level since they've been since October of twenty twenty three.

694
00:35:59.320 --> 00:36:02.320
The ten year. We actually have a very interesting curve.

695
00:36:02.559 --> 00:36:05.840
It's pretty much steepened across the board. The one years below,

696
00:36:05.840 --> 00:36:07.320
the two, the two years below the five, the five

697
00:36:07.360 --> 00:36:09.119
years below the ten, and I believe in the ten

698
00:36:09.159 --> 00:36:11.599
years below the thirty. So we actually have a perfect

699
00:36:11.639 --> 00:36:15.000
curve now in terms of just the generals, the normal curve,

700
00:36:15.039 --> 00:36:18.000
the way you're supposed to have it. It's not necessarily

701
00:36:18.039 --> 00:36:21.480
super rampy, but it's still kind of flat, but it's

702
00:36:21.480 --> 00:36:22.880
still it's all that is where it needs to be,

703
00:36:23.239 --> 00:36:24.920
but the ten years not where it needs to be.

704
00:36:24.920 --> 00:36:27.239
Because at this point it puts a lot of pressure

705
00:36:27.719 --> 00:36:32.440
on companies, smaller companies for sure, and these next quarter

706
00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:34.320
of earnings reports are going to have a lot of

707
00:36:34.360 --> 00:36:38.039
pressure on them because when you then have guidance being

708
00:36:38.079 --> 00:36:40.559
based on interest rates, all guidance is based on interest

709
00:36:41.280 --> 00:36:44.480
People project out the valuation of a stock a year

710
00:36:44.519 --> 00:36:46.199
into the future, ten years in the future, and that's

711
00:36:46.199 --> 00:36:48.239
how they find their valuations for what they're willing to

712
00:36:48.239 --> 00:36:50.960
pay for. Well, part of that calculation is the benchmark

713
00:36:50.960 --> 00:36:53.480
interest rate, which is the ten year. So every time

714
00:36:53.519 --> 00:36:56.400
the ten year goes up, your valuation for any stock

715
00:36:56.480 --> 00:36:59.440
goes down, actually any asset class goes down. Because you're

716
00:36:59.440 --> 00:37:03.440
measuring a it's the bench benchmark risk free rate. So

717
00:37:03.559 --> 00:37:06.719
the minute that benchmark goes up. It hurts everything across

718
00:37:06.760 --> 00:37:10.440
the board, and normally we see that happen pretty often.

719
00:37:10.480 --> 00:37:13.639
Sometimes you see the market kind of diverge against that rule.

720
00:37:13.719 --> 00:37:17.199
But after a while it has to listen. And when

721
00:37:17.239 --> 00:37:19.159
the market was kind of going up and up in

722
00:37:19.199 --> 00:37:21.880
the back half of twenty four, it finally did listen.

723
00:37:21.920 --> 00:37:25.480
When you know, Jerome Palace said hey, we're not going

724
00:37:25.559 --> 00:37:26.960
to get the rate cuts in twenty five. You guys

725
00:37:27.000 --> 00:37:29.039
are all expected the market finally listen, it's sold off,

726
00:37:29.039 --> 00:37:30.880
and it's been selling off pretty much since then.

727
00:37:31.239 --> 00:37:33.440
Yeah, we're in an environment right now where good news

728
00:37:33.519 --> 00:37:36.559
is bad news, right because good economic news like we

729
00:37:36.679 --> 00:37:39.480
had on Friday where the jobs report was wow, man,

730
00:37:39.519 --> 00:37:41.880
this economy is hitting all all cylinders. That is not

731
00:37:42.000 --> 00:37:44.400
what they wanted to hear. And I had a client

732
00:37:44.440 --> 00:37:46.679
to email me and say, wait a second, this is

733
00:37:46.800 --> 00:37:50.079
really good news. How is this not good news? Man?

734
00:37:50.119 --> 00:37:52.679
It's not good news because it's pushing putting pressure more

735
00:37:52.719 --> 00:37:55.760
pressure on interest rates which have already risen what about

736
00:37:55.760 --> 00:37:58.519
one hundred and twenty five basis points since they started

737
00:37:58.599 --> 00:38:02.679
cut on the highest level of Todd Houston since twenty.

738
00:38:02.280 --> 00:38:03.960
Three October twenty three.

739
00:38:03.960 --> 00:38:05.480
Octumber twenty three yep.

740
00:38:05.679 --> 00:38:08.199
Really wow, those risky stocks they got crushed, Like I

741
00:38:08.199 --> 00:38:10.119
think about the quantum computing stocks this week.

742
00:38:10.280 --> 00:38:13.079
Yeah, but they got crushed for other reasons, other reasons

743
00:38:13.599 --> 00:38:16.079
that stuff. Yeah, yeah, it was mainly because the Nvidia

744
00:38:16.159 --> 00:38:19.159
CEO said quantum computing and all that's like fifteen to

745
00:38:19.199 --> 00:38:20.199
thirty years out.

746
00:38:20.519 --> 00:38:23.119
But not to mention, I mean the companies that aren't profitable,

747
00:38:23.239 --> 00:38:25.840
they higher interest rates, higher cost to borrow.

748
00:38:26.159 --> 00:38:28.360
Anything that's a risk asset is going to get hurt

749
00:38:28.400 --> 00:38:32.000
when interest rates get increased. So you're talking about bitcoin

750
00:38:32.519 --> 00:38:36.480
and things like that that intrinsically are risky assets. You

751
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:38.519
can look at a Nasdaq what led the way down

752
00:38:38.559 --> 00:38:40.960
this week? The nas Deck well, also led the way

753
00:38:41.000 --> 00:38:44.199
down the Rustle two thousand, because it's a risky asset class.

754
00:38:44.400 --> 00:38:46.920
Anything with risk is going to be based on interest rates,

755
00:38:46.960 --> 00:38:49.519
and as interest rates go higher, their evaluations have to

756
00:38:49.519 --> 00:38:51.079
come down. It's just how math works.

757
00:38:51.360 --> 00:38:54.119
Yeah. What a week, bitcoin head. I saw it as

758
00:38:54.199 --> 00:38:56.320
high as one O three. I thowt as low as

759
00:38:56.360 --> 00:38:59.039
ninety one. Thing is moving one hundred and three thousand,

760
00:38:59.039 --> 00:39:01.239
as low as ninety one, and I think it finished

761
00:39:01.239 --> 00:39:02.880
the week around ninety five thousand.

762
00:39:03.119 --> 00:39:08.440
Yeah, it held it held in its last fibonacci before

763
00:39:08.480 --> 00:39:11.039
it would have gone down to like seventy two, So

764
00:39:11.960 --> 00:39:13.639
it's going to be interesting. Ninety two is a key

765
00:39:13.719 --> 00:39:15.000
level for it to hold in.

766
00:39:15.119 --> 00:39:17.159
It is, and it really has been holding that a

767
00:39:17.159 --> 00:39:18.519
couple of times.

768
00:39:17.920 --> 00:39:20.239
It's held it for a couple of times, which is

769
00:39:20.280 --> 00:39:22.519
a good sign. The one interesting sign of the S

770
00:39:22.559 --> 00:39:25.440
and P is it broke a big fibonacci. So what

771
00:39:25.519 --> 00:39:28.639
it does next week is going to be interesting because

772
00:39:28.639 --> 00:39:30.199
it kind of needs a little bit of a of

773
00:39:30.239 --> 00:39:33.039
an increase next week, or if it has another down week,

774
00:39:33.239 --> 00:39:35.039
we'll break another level and then we could be going

775
00:39:35.079 --> 00:39:37.119
to fifty seven hundred. I would say, you're.

776
00:39:36.960 --> 00:39:37.760
Talking about the S and P.

777
00:39:37.960 --> 00:39:38.840
S and P five hundred.

778
00:39:38.920 --> 00:39:39.079
Yeah.

779
00:39:39.079 --> 00:39:41.159
Well, the interesting part about it is I was looking

780
00:39:41.199 --> 00:39:42.920
at the Dow and it was down over seven hundred

781
00:39:42.960 --> 00:39:44.880
points on Friday, and for the week it was down

782
00:39:44.960 --> 00:39:47.039
seven hundred and ninety four, So I mean it was like,

783
00:39:47.679 --> 00:39:51.280
really to Friday, it was flat pretty much essentially, and

784
00:39:51.400 --> 00:39:54.440
we've ended up the week a down, down one point

785
00:39:54.519 --> 00:39:56.840
nine percent on the Dow, down two point three percent

786
00:39:56.880 --> 00:40:00.199
on the NASDAK. Coming into Friday, we were flat on

787
00:40:00.239 --> 00:40:02.519
the week, so Friday was rough, and Friday was all

788
00:40:02.559 --> 00:40:05.760
about interest rates, Like Todd said, hitting the highest level

789
00:40:05.760 --> 00:40:08.599
since twenty three, mortgage rates up around seven.

790
00:40:08.679 --> 00:40:10.760
Yeah, six point nine three for a thirty year Freddy

791
00:40:10.800 --> 00:40:13.119
mc mortgage rate. That's someone who puts down twenty percent

792
00:40:13.199 --> 00:40:15.639
and has really good credits. So it's it's higher for

793
00:40:15.679 --> 00:40:17.880
most people. And next week it's going to go even

794
00:40:17.920 --> 00:40:20.000
higher because the thirty the ten year increased this week

795
00:40:20.039 --> 00:40:22.719
and there's always a lack, so it's going to be

796
00:40:22.760 --> 00:40:24.719
in the low sevens even for really good credit people

797
00:40:24.719 --> 00:40:26.599
that put twenty percent downs, which means it's going to

798
00:40:26.679 --> 00:40:29.239
be in the mid sevens for the average person.

799
00:40:29.719 --> 00:40:32.039
So if you're buying a house right now, let's say

800
00:40:32.079 --> 00:40:34.719
you're one of these California people who has decided I've

801
00:40:34.719 --> 00:40:37.400
had enough, right and they're going to gonna move to Arizona.

802
00:40:37.840 --> 00:40:39.440
You're and you're going to buy a house here, You're

803
00:40:39.480 --> 00:40:43.840
probably want to consider a variable rate mortgage or cash.

804
00:40:43.960 --> 00:40:46.239
A lot of people paid cash and they didn't have

805
00:40:46.280 --> 00:40:47.840
to worry about the rate, right.

806
00:40:47.800 --> 00:40:49.440
Their house is worth so much over there.

807
00:40:49.480 --> 00:40:51.159
Well, that's assuming you were able to buy a house

808
00:40:51.199 --> 00:40:56.000
in California. Most people can't true, you know, so I

809
00:40:56.079 --> 00:40:56.719
was at that was.

810
00:40:56.840 --> 00:40:59.280
A lot of legacy families. Though there are house down

811
00:40:59.320 --> 00:40:59.639
their house.

812
00:40:59.880 --> 00:41:02.239
I know. I was at Thanksgiving dinner there were five couples,

813
00:41:02.239 --> 00:41:05.480
all of them rented. Every single one of the lanted. No,

814
00:41:06.000 --> 00:41:11.000
it's owning the house is a real special privilege in California.

815
00:41:11.000 --> 00:41:16.000
And like Yella said, if you do man those. I

816
00:41:16.039 --> 00:41:19.719
had a client moved from Santa Barbara to Tucson, and

817
00:41:19.760 --> 00:41:21.880
I said to her, I said, what why would you move?

818
00:41:22.000 --> 00:41:25.119
Santa Barbara is arguably one of the prettiest places on

819
00:41:25.159 --> 00:41:28.639
the planet, right, why would you move from there to Tucson?

820
00:41:28.760 --> 00:41:31.039
Just curious? And she said, well, a quarter of a

821
00:41:31.039 --> 00:41:33.960
million dollar house we sold for two point three million.

822
00:41:34.599 --> 00:41:36.199
He said, I was able to move here. I bought

823
00:41:36.239 --> 00:41:39.599
myself a seven hundred thousand dollars house in Saddlebrook. I

824
00:41:39.599 --> 00:41:42.320
bought myself a five hundred thousand dollars brand new motor home,

825
00:41:42.760 --> 00:41:46.599
and I've got a million leftover. That's why, you.

826
00:41:46.559 --> 00:41:49.440
Know, And that was why in the pandemic we saw

827
00:41:49.480 --> 00:41:51.559
the influx of people come here. It wasn't the people

828
00:41:51.559 --> 00:41:53.599
who were renting a California that came here. It was

829
00:41:53.639 --> 00:41:56.159
the people who had the houses in California that came here.

830
00:41:56.400 --> 00:41:59.400
Yeah, And I don't know now's what difference this makes,

831
00:41:59.400 --> 00:42:01.360
but I would back there to be a pretty good.

832
00:42:01.280 --> 00:42:03.719
Most people who rent wouldn't entertain the offer of moving

833
00:42:03.719 --> 00:42:05.440
to another state because that means they're not also going

834
00:42:05.519 --> 00:42:08.280
to make less. It's just it's just going to echo out.

835
00:42:08.320 --> 00:42:10.920
And there are a lot of work from home people

836
00:42:10.960 --> 00:42:14.360
that can get California wages and live in Arizona. That's goods.

837
00:42:15.119 --> 00:42:16.239
That's a good thing right there.

838
00:42:16.400 --> 00:42:18.639
Where if you were hired in California, now you're working

839
00:42:18.719 --> 00:42:20.480
home person. Since twenty twenty.

840
00:42:20.360 --> 00:42:22.559
What did you see with the labor report? A lot

841
00:42:22.599 --> 00:42:25.559
of the last three or four the only jobs creation

842
00:42:25.840 --> 00:42:28.920
was actually from the government sector, which isn't necessarily showing

843
00:42:28.960 --> 00:42:30.199
that the economy is doing good.

844
00:42:30.599 --> 00:42:31.800
It's not.

845
00:42:31.920 --> 00:42:34.079
So did you see what the increase was this time?

846
00:42:34.400 --> 00:42:36.000
We do have a chance. We'll have to dig in

847
00:42:36.079 --> 00:42:38.519
that for you guys next week, because that's what we've

848
00:42:38.559 --> 00:42:40.440
been seeing in the last three week, three months, the

849
00:42:40.519 --> 00:42:42.679
labor report. Yeah, it's been increasing, but it's all been

850
00:42:43.159 --> 00:42:46.079
government jobs. So that's not actually showing the economy is

851
00:42:46.079 --> 00:42:48.440
doing well. It's just showing that the government is doing good.

852
00:42:48.440 --> 00:42:49.119
At printing money.

853
00:42:49.320 --> 00:42:51.559
That would be bad news if all of the job

854
00:42:51.679 --> 00:42:54.559
creation was in the government, right, Yeah, for sure, that's

855
00:42:54.599 --> 00:42:58.440
not good. So the economy right now is strong, maybe

856
00:42:58.440 --> 00:42:59.039
too strong.

857
00:43:00.039 --> 00:43:03.199
Economic reports will continue to be in focus, and then

858
00:43:04.079 --> 00:43:06.639
rates where they're at. That's where companies are going to

859
00:43:06.719 --> 00:43:09.199
have to contend with when earning season comes in what

860
00:43:09.280 --> 00:43:10.400
two weeks from it now?

861
00:43:11.800 --> 00:43:13.639
Yeah?

862
00:43:13.840 --> 00:43:17.559
Yeah, after the inauguration, everyone's probably going to be placing

863
00:43:17.599 --> 00:43:20.039
their bets already has placed their bets on what Trump's

864
00:43:20.079 --> 00:43:22.239
going to say and do in his first one hundred

865
00:43:22.320 --> 00:43:25.360
days and try to play that guessing game well.

866
00:43:25.360 --> 00:43:28.599
And then there will be some some stuff that you

867
00:43:28.920 --> 00:43:32.719
hear the ego wow, you know, and both positive and negative.

868
00:43:33.320 --> 00:43:35.880
It's just the way he operates, just who he is.

869
00:43:36.800 --> 00:43:41.599
We we hired him to change things, right, and I

870
00:43:41.639 --> 00:43:42.800
promise you he's going to change.

871
00:43:43.039 --> 00:43:44.920
I definitely think on a short term you might see

872
00:43:44.920 --> 00:43:47.880
some market fluctuations based on whatever he says. But in

873
00:43:47.920 --> 00:43:50.559
the interim, I don't think there's really much he can

874
00:43:50.599 --> 00:43:54.840
do in the in this year. I think it's more

875
00:43:55.039 --> 00:43:57.119
just how the economy plays out well.

876
00:43:57.119 --> 00:43:59.559
And they put so much pressure on these presidents of

877
00:43:59.599 --> 00:44:01.480
their first hundred days what did you do in your

878
00:44:01.519 --> 00:44:04.079
first hundred days? I don't know where that came from,

879
00:44:04.679 --> 00:44:07.039
but it's got to be exhausting if you've got a

880
00:44:07.079 --> 00:44:09.159
brand new job. And okay, let's look at how you

881
00:44:09.159 --> 00:44:13.679
did during your first one hundred days. Okay, I mean

882
00:44:13.920 --> 00:44:16.239
imagine that from any job you've ever had in your life.

883
00:44:16.639 --> 00:44:18.199
First hundred days? What did I do?

884
00:44:18.320 --> 00:44:18.519
Well?

885
00:44:18.559 --> 00:44:20.280
I learned how to learn how to do my job

886
00:44:20.719 --> 00:44:23.440
kind of what I did? You know? Trump having been

887
00:44:23.440 --> 00:44:26.360
through this before, he understands that he knows going in

888
00:44:26.880 --> 00:44:29.599
and this is rare that you have a president coming

889
00:44:29.639 --> 00:44:32.599
back for a second term after having sat out a term.

890
00:44:32.760 --> 00:44:34.679
Isn't the only time I go to Cleveland?

891
00:44:35.000 --> 00:44:37.559
That was it? I think it was Grover Cleveland was

892
00:44:37.599 --> 00:44:40.280
the only other one. So he knows, he knows the

893
00:44:40.360 --> 00:44:41.880
lay of the land, he knows how it works, he

894
00:44:41.920 --> 00:44:46.639
knows how where things are, and that should make up

895
00:44:46.960 --> 00:44:49.199
a very nice difference this time.

896
00:44:49.320 --> 00:44:51.719
All right, I got some answers. Healthcare was up the

897
00:44:51.760 --> 00:44:56.199
most forty six thousand. He's your in hospitality increase forty

898
00:44:56.199 --> 00:44:59.840
three thousand, retail increased forty three thousand, and then the

899
00:45:00.000 --> 00:45:02.320
government increased thirty three thousand. So it wasn't the most

900
00:45:02.320 --> 00:45:06.719
this month last month, so that's rowing, but not one

901
00:45:06.719 --> 00:45:07.760
of the top ones.

902
00:45:07.880 --> 00:45:09.840
That's indicator that the economy is strong.

903
00:45:10.800 --> 00:45:13.679
Retail saw a gain of forty three thousand after a

904
00:45:13.679 --> 00:45:16.079
loss of twenty nine thousand. Makes it think maybe there

905
00:45:16.119 --> 00:45:18.039
was a bunch of hires for the holidays.

906
00:45:18.320 --> 00:45:20.519
Yeah, no question, to be a bunch of higher.

907
00:45:20.400 --> 00:45:22.559
They lost twenty nine thousand in November and gained forty

908
00:45:22.559 --> 00:45:23.679
three thousand in December.

909
00:45:24.039 --> 00:45:28.039
Wow, we're gonna learn more next week. On the calendar Tuesday,

910
00:45:28.119 --> 00:45:31.719
we have PPI Wednesday CPI. I thought that's kind of unusual.

911
00:45:31.760 --> 00:45:36.280
Generally PPI solo. CPI this time is leading this. So

912
00:45:36.320 --> 00:45:38.199
you got Tuesday the PPI And.

913
00:45:38.199 --> 00:45:39.639
Why would that change CPI?

914
00:45:39.800 --> 00:45:40.920
Huh why would they change that?

915
00:45:40.960 --> 00:45:43.760
I have no idea. I have no idea, but I

916
00:45:43.760 --> 00:45:47.039
saw that that's kind of backwards. Yeah, normally CPI PPI.

917
00:45:47.199 --> 00:45:50.519
But for whatever reason, the way they're coming out, China

918
00:45:50.559 --> 00:45:53.360
continues to be a problem. Down five percent last week,

919
00:45:54.119 --> 00:45:57.119
three and a half months low. They remember when they

920
00:45:57.199 --> 00:46:01.000
got that big stimulus package, the initials stimulus package, and

921
00:46:01.039 --> 00:46:04.000
its spiked higher. It's pretty much given up all that

922
00:46:04.159 --> 00:46:08.639
game now and it is really economy really struggling with

923
00:46:08.760 --> 00:46:11.599
again the biggest real estate bubble in the history of

924
00:46:11.639 --> 00:46:15.960
the world, that they're even China's having a hard time

925
00:46:16.000 --> 00:46:18.679
trying to manage. What about oil? That's kind of crazy.

926
00:46:18.920 --> 00:46:21.079
Back to back weeks strong growth, strong.

927
00:46:20.840 --> 00:46:23.559
Growth up another two percent last week or two dollars

928
00:46:23.639 --> 00:46:26.880
last week, the highest level since October. And when I

929
00:46:26.880 --> 00:46:30.280
was looking at why, it says, well, expec expectations for

930
00:46:30.320 --> 00:46:33.599
a stronger demand from China, I'm thinking, well, that's probably

931
00:46:33.639 --> 00:46:34.239
not going to happen.

932
00:46:34.280 --> 00:46:36.440
That's not the reason I saw this week. The report

933
00:46:36.480 --> 00:46:39.199
I saw was that the White Houses and talks to

934
00:46:39.360 --> 00:46:41.239
increase sanctions on Russia for oil.

935
00:46:41.480 --> 00:46:43.679
They did increase sanctions for Russia on oil, from what

936
00:46:43.679 --> 00:46:46.639
I understand, and that was one of two things I

937
00:46:46.719 --> 00:46:48.440
was getting were given for the reasons. The other one

938
00:46:48.440 --> 00:46:51.199
was strength in China, and I'm thinking, yeah, probably not

939
00:46:51.199 --> 00:46:51.840
going to have anything.

940
00:46:51.920 --> 00:46:54.639
I saw that report on Thursday. It came out initially,

941
00:46:54.719 --> 00:46:57.320
so it makes sense why it was increased both days

942
00:46:57.360 --> 00:47:00.960
on Thursday and Friday. And then I think you're just

943
00:47:01.000 --> 00:47:04.039
going to continue to see the fact that you can't

944
00:47:04.079 --> 00:47:06.320
just have Trump say baby drill and then have all

945
00:47:06.360 --> 00:47:08.239
these projects get created.

946
00:47:08.360 --> 00:47:09.079
Yeah, I was.

947
00:47:09.159 --> 00:47:11.039
Talking to it. A guy who creates, who works at

948
00:47:11.039 --> 00:47:13.400
oil industries. They think in ten years, they don't think

949
00:47:13.440 --> 00:47:15.639
in four years. So it's likely that's not going to

950
00:47:15.719 --> 00:47:17.320
be in his in his term.

951
00:47:17.440 --> 00:47:19.280
It's amazing. We thought it was going lower and it's

952
00:47:19.320 --> 00:47:21.360
going higher. So we'll be back with more of the

953
00:47:21.440 --> 00:47:24.440
Money Matter Show after this break. We appreciate your joining

954
00:47:24.480 --> 00:47:27.719
this on this chilly Sunday morning. I'm being tired of

955
00:47:27.719 --> 00:47:30.760
this cold weather. I want hot weather. Weiber right back.

956
00:47:31.920 --> 00:47:34.119
Welcome back to the second hour of the Money Matter Show.

957
00:47:34.159 --> 00:47:36.639
I'm Dylan Greenberg here with Dean Greenberg, Dave Shrew with

958
00:47:36.800 --> 00:47:39.199
a bashing board. See Todd Glick got the whole crew

959
00:47:39.239 --> 00:47:42.119
here today. And for those of you just tuning in,

960
00:47:42.159 --> 00:47:44.199
the DOW was down one point nine percent last week.

961
00:47:44.360 --> 00:47:46.960
The SMP five hundred was also down one point nine percent,

962
00:47:47.119 --> 00:47:49.400
The NASDAK was down two point three percent, the Rustle

963
00:47:49.440 --> 00:47:51.880
two thousand was down three point three percent, and the

964
00:47:51.920 --> 00:47:55.000
equal weighted SMP five hundred was down one point eight percent.

965
00:47:55.280 --> 00:47:57.960
So those being the same, the SMP and then equal

966
00:47:57.960 --> 00:48:01.039
weighted SMP being down, the ste makes it think the

967
00:48:01.079 --> 00:48:04.480
market's just down as a whole which it was, and

968
00:48:04.519 --> 00:48:05.960
it was mostly because of Friday.

969
00:48:06.239 --> 00:48:08.880
It was a yeah, other than Friday, pretty flat.

970
00:48:08.679 --> 00:48:10.960
Going into Friday. But then we got the strong draws

971
00:48:10.960 --> 00:48:13.920
report Friday morning and that tank the market.

972
00:48:14.280 --> 00:48:16.400
Interesting part, with the S and P five hundred down

973
00:48:16.440 --> 00:48:20.280
one point nine percent last week, it's still only down

974
00:48:20.440 --> 00:48:23.719
nine tenths of a percent for the year. So the

975
00:48:23.719 --> 00:48:26.440
first week it was up one percent. The first week

976
00:48:26.480 --> 00:48:28.000
of the year was up one percent. That's good.

977
00:48:28.280 --> 00:48:30.559
In January tends to be a strong month because of

978
00:48:30.559 --> 00:48:32.360
all the new money coming into the markets from the

979
00:48:32.400 --> 00:48:34.320
retirement plant retirement plans.

980
00:48:34.639 --> 00:48:36.719
Yeah, Now, Dean is fine the saying just because the

981
00:48:36.840 --> 00:48:38.920
mutual fund companies are getting them, and he doesn't mean

982
00:48:38.960 --> 00:48:40.440
they have to put it to word. Well, some some

983
00:48:40.480 --> 00:48:41.079
of them they do.

984
00:48:41.559 --> 00:48:43.599
There's a lot of money coming into the markets regardless

985
00:48:43.599 --> 00:48:44.000
of something.

986
00:48:44.079 --> 00:48:46.519
Don't. Yeah, there's none, do it.

987
00:48:46.559 --> 00:48:47.519
They'll move the markets.

988
00:48:47.719 --> 00:48:50.880
No month sees cash inflows like this month. Yeah, because

989
00:48:50.880 --> 00:48:53.239
even if you're making a million dollars a month, you're

990
00:48:53.239 --> 00:48:56.440
going to max out your four oh one k in January.

991
00:48:56.480 --> 00:48:58.559
Everybody is going to make a four to one k

992
00:48:58.679 --> 00:49:02.199
contribution in January. You know the fun fact before we

993
00:49:02.280 --> 00:49:06.800
let Christmas disappear through the reverey mirror this week. Last week,

994
00:49:06.880 --> 00:49:11.239
Monday was the twelfth day of Christmas. Now most people

995
00:49:11.239 --> 00:49:15.119
don't understand that what the twelfth Days of Christmas are about.

996
00:49:15.199 --> 00:49:17.480
The twelve Days of Christmas is a song that was

997
00:49:18.199 --> 00:49:23.880
probably written five hundred years ago as a disguised way

998
00:49:23.960 --> 00:49:28.840
for Christians to celebrate their religion. It was at that

999
00:49:29.000 --> 00:49:32.199
time illegal to be a Christian and could be punished

1000
00:49:32.239 --> 00:49:36.280
by death. So the twelve Days of Christmas are not

1001
00:49:36.440 --> 00:49:40.519
about leading up to Christmas. It's about from Christmas Day

1002
00:49:40.679 --> 00:49:44.119
is day number one and Epiphany, which is the day

1003
00:49:44.199 --> 00:49:50.280
that the Gentiles saw Christ the wise men. The wise

1004
00:49:50.320 --> 00:49:53.199
men saw Christ. That's the twelve days. So the first

1005
00:49:53.280 --> 00:49:57.159
day is Christmas, the twelfth day is Epiphany. And each

1006
00:49:57.239 --> 00:50:03.559
one of the symbols is some religious what's the word

1007
00:50:03.559 --> 00:50:05.679
I want to use some symbol for something religious. For instance,

1008
00:50:05.719 --> 00:50:07.440
partry jenni per tree is Jesus.

1009
00:50:08.239 --> 00:50:09.559
I just thought that it was leading up to.

1010
00:50:09.760 --> 00:50:12.840
Nope, you're wrong. So day one of the twelve days

1011
00:50:12.840 --> 00:50:17.159
of Christmas is Christmas Day, partriy, jenniper tree, Jesus. And

1012
00:50:17.239 --> 00:50:19.159
it goes on through and I could give you all

1013
00:50:19.199 --> 00:50:21.440
but you don't, don't care, but it's kind of interesting.

1014
00:50:21.480 --> 00:50:23.840
So the twelfth day of Christmas, the day that the

1015
00:50:24.559 --> 00:50:28.400
Gentiles were introduced to Jesus, was last Monday. So there

1016
00:50:28.400 --> 00:50:30.239
you go. You all know about the twelve Days of Christmas.

1017
00:50:30.280 --> 00:50:33.719
It's a religious song, it's a Christian song, and there's

1018
00:50:33.800 --> 00:50:35.960
meaning to every one of those things. And it's not

1019
00:50:36.039 --> 00:50:36.920
what you think it is.

1020
00:50:38.159 --> 00:50:40.159
Right, good fun, folks, that's fun.

1021
00:50:40.440 --> 00:50:43.320
We talked about in video a little bit. N Video

1022
00:50:43.719 --> 00:50:46.719
hit another new all time high last week for the

1023
00:50:46.760 --> 00:50:50.480
first time since Thanksgiving after an upbeat speech from their

1024
00:50:50.559 --> 00:50:54.679
CEO at the Vegas Consumer Electronics Conference. Really gave a

1025
00:50:54.760 --> 00:50:57.960
glowing report. Lots of different things that they're going to

1026
00:50:58.039 --> 00:51:01.639
be involved in. You know, the they teamed up with

1027
00:51:01.679 --> 00:51:04.480
the driverless truck company Aurora, and they're going to do this,

1028
00:51:04.599 --> 00:51:05.360
and they're going to do that.

1029
00:51:05.519 --> 00:51:07.360
And their big thing was like the new gaming chips

1030
00:51:07.360 --> 00:51:09.119
for the computers that are going to use that Blackwell

1031
00:51:09.159 --> 00:51:10.360
Technology gaming chips.

1032
00:51:10.559 --> 00:51:14.800
But again, I continue to come back to this. You

1033
00:51:14.800 --> 00:51:18.840
can come up with one hundred different applications for your chips,

1034
00:51:18.840 --> 00:51:22.079
but you only have so many chips. You're producing all

1035
00:51:22.159 --> 00:51:24.559
of the chips that you can produce. Right now, you

1036
00:51:24.599 --> 00:51:28.639
are selling every single chip you can produce. What's going

1037
00:51:28.719 --> 00:51:32.840
to make things better not new markets, not new customers,

1038
00:51:33.119 --> 00:51:35.679
because you have all the customers that you can handle

1039
00:51:35.760 --> 00:51:36.159
right now.

1040
00:51:36.239 --> 00:51:39.760
Well, like you're saying, they announced a personal computer with

1041
00:51:39.880 --> 00:51:42.639
the architecture from the Blackwell chip. Is that which is

1042
00:51:42.639 --> 00:51:44.960
the AI chip? So that's a little different market. It's

1043
00:51:44.960 --> 00:51:47.079
the personal computer's like a thousand times faster than a

1044
00:51:47.159 --> 00:51:51.440
normal PC or MAC. So that's a little niche market

1045
00:51:51.480 --> 00:51:52.400
compared to what they've been doing.

1046
00:51:52.440 --> 00:51:54.119
And you're just thinking about the companies who have thought

1047
00:51:54.119 --> 00:51:57.039
about this yet. Eventually, your car is going to have

1048
00:51:57.079 --> 00:52:02.719
AI capabilities, your car's gonna have a safety features. There's

1049
00:52:02.760 --> 00:52:04.639
gonna be other companies that are gonna need to go

1050
00:52:04.679 --> 00:52:09.199
into this field and develop products for their main product,

1051
00:52:09.440 --> 00:52:12.400
and it's going to enhance that main product by incorporating AI.

1052
00:52:12.519 --> 00:52:14.880
And these businesses just haven't thought about it yet. There's

1053
00:52:14.920 --> 00:52:17.679
just so much use cases that they don't realize. Yeah,

1054
00:52:17.719 --> 00:52:20.400
you could probably create a turn signal, you know that

1055
00:52:20.440 --> 00:52:24.039
you just some weird version of it that AI can

1056
00:52:24.079 --> 00:52:25.760
help with. You know, you already know you have the

1057
00:52:25.800 --> 00:52:28.199
sensors that like help you know when someone's in your

1058
00:52:28.119 --> 00:52:31.840
blind spot. Things like that, that you could just continuously

1059
00:52:31.920 --> 00:52:34.880
create those sensors that tell you someone's in your blind

1060
00:52:34.880 --> 00:52:37.639
spot twenty years ago that wasn't in any car, right,

1061
00:52:37.719 --> 00:52:41.360
But what do those require? Semiconductors? Those require inputs that

1062
00:52:41.599 --> 00:52:44.239
were never needed twenty years ago. So I feel like

1063
00:52:44.280 --> 00:52:47.320
as these new use cases for the product of AI

1064
00:52:47.599 --> 00:52:50.559
get founded, you'll have other companies needed to invest in

1065
00:52:51.039 --> 00:52:52.079
these chips to get that.

1066
00:52:52.159 --> 00:52:53.880
Probably that's a good point. How many chips do you

1067
00:52:53.920 --> 00:52:57.559
think that are in an internal combustion engine two thousand,

1068
00:52:57.760 --> 00:53:00.440
about five hundred to one thousand, depending on the make. Okay,

1069
00:53:00.760 --> 00:53:02.599
what do you think is in a Tesla twenty five

1070
00:53:02.679 --> 00:53:04.360
hundred to three thousand.

1071
00:53:04.440 --> 00:53:06.639
Yeah, a lot of them, A lot of them. Speaking

1072
00:53:06.639 --> 00:53:08.920
of which, that's a nice little segue we were talking about.

1073
00:53:09.440 --> 00:53:12.000
You know, there's a number of reasons why you would

1074
00:53:12.039 --> 00:53:15.480
buy an electric vehicle. Probably the number one reason that

1075
00:53:15.559 --> 00:53:18.280
people consider electric vehicles is so they don't have to

1076
00:53:18.280 --> 00:53:22.559
buy gasoline, right, something that you don't think about nearly

1077
00:53:22.559 --> 00:53:25.400
so munch as maintenance. But the one thing that it

1078
00:53:25.800 --> 00:53:29.239
tracks me and will probably keep me hooked on electric

1079
00:53:29.320 --> 00:53:34.039
vehicles for life is the speed. I love the speed.

1080
00:53:34.119 --> 00:53:37.599
It turns out, get this, I thought all electric vehicles

1081
00:53:37.599 --> 00:53:40.840
were about the same in terms of speed, No they're not.

1082
00:53:41.679 --> 00:53:44.800
It turns out there are some big differences. Think of

1083
00:53:44.840 --> 00:53:47.079
this a Ferrari. Most people look at a Fray and

1084
00:53:47.119 --> 00:53:49.000
they go, that's about as fast as you can go, right,

1085
00:53:49.079 --> 00:53:53.119
A Frari, Okay, Lamborghin, any whatever. But Ferrari is considered

1086
00:53:53.159 --> 00:53:55.639
to be one of the fastest cars on the planet.

1087
00:53:57.119 --> 00:54:00.199
A Frari does zero to sixteen about three seconds. That's

1088
00:54:00.239 --> 00:54:04.440
what my SUV does, my Tesh suv. But you start

1089
00:54:04.480 --> 00:54:07.800
to look in some of these the Tesla models zero

1090
00:54:07.840 --> 00:54:11.519
to sixty is two point four, the Lucid Sapphire two

1091
00:54:11.599 --> 00:54:17.079
point one. But get this, the fastest electric vehicle out

1092
00:54:17.119 --> 00:54:22.840
there right now is the Porsche Taycan turbo tack an

1093
00:54:22.920 --> 00:54:26.119
or Tycan whatever it is turbo. Get this zero to

1094
00:54:26.239 --> 00:54:31.519
sixty and one point nine seconds one Mississippi, you're there?

1095
00:54:32.480 --> 00:54:35.800
Are you kidding me? Can you imagine the damage that

1096
00:54:35.800 --> 00:54:36.840
could do to somebody's name?

1097
00:54:37.880 --> 00:54:38.760
One point nine seconds?

1098
00:54:38.760 --> 00:54:40.239
What's your two point nine seconds?

1099
00:54:40.840 --> 00:54:41.679
What's your Tesla doing?

1100
00:54:42.159 --> 00:54:44.119
Three? Well, actually three and a half.

1101
00:54:44.719 --> 00:54:47.360
And also the fastest car that I'm I'm aware of

1102
00:54:47.440 --> 00:54:50.679
is the Dodge Challenger Demon that goes zero to sixty

1103
00:54:50.679 --> 00:54:51.840
and two point three seconds.

1104
00:54:52.000 --> 00:54:54.199
Yeah, so that would be that would be most of

1105
00:54:54.239 --> 00:54:55.480
these would beat that, right.

1106
00:54:57.000 --> 00:54:58.840
Yeah, but that's not like a.

1107
00:54:59.159 --> 00:55:02.480
Yeah one point nine seconds mm hm insane.

1108
00:55:03.239 --> 00:55:05.960
Well the roadster that that they had goes at two

1109
00:55:06.000 --> 00:55:08.760
point three. The roadster goes two point three.

1110
00:55:08.960 --> 00:55:11.079
Yeah. Anyway, there's a lot of electric vehicles that do

1111
00:55:11.360 --> 00:55:13.800
two point two two point three, which makes them amongst

1112
00:55:13.840 --> 00:55:16.960
the fastest cars in the world on the roads, certainly,

1113
00:55:17.360 --> 00:55:19.159
and that's another fun part of it.

1114
00:55:19.199 --> 00:55:21.800
There's an electric car that was announced in China, their

1115
00:55:21.840 --> 00:55:26.719
newest uh supercar jumps over potholes. What it's crazy. It

1116
00:55:26.760 --> 00:55:28.719
has a sensor for potholes and it hops over them.

1117
00:55:28.840 --> 00:55:31.760
Oh, for goodness, hops over the That's just one of

1118
00:55:31.760 --> 00:55:35.159
those examples video for it AI being able to be used.

1119
00:55:35.639 --> 00:55:37.239
All of a sudden, you're going to have a jump

1120
00:55:37.239 --> 00:55:38.239
over potholes feature.

1121
00:55:38.320 --> 00:55:40.800
I saw a genius pot I saw a genius potholes

1122
00:55:40.840 --> 00:55:44.199
set up, and I remember what was the Netherlands or Germany.

1123
00:55:44.239 --> 00:55:46.440
I know exactly what you're talking. I know exactly what.

1124
00:55:46.880 --> 00:55:49.719
There's a sensor that sees how fast you're coming down

1125
00:55:49.719 --> 00:55:52.280
the street. If you're going to speed limit or below,

1126
00:55:52.920 --> 00:55:55.920
you'll have nothing. If you're going above the speed limit

1127
00:55:56.000 --> 00:55:59.400
actually drops you know, about two or three inches and

1128
00:55:59.519 --> 00:56:01.199
creates bottle. Right.

1129
00:56:03.000 --> 00:56:05.039
I saw one that did the alternate and made a

1130
00:56:05.079 --> 00:56:05.639
speed bump.

1131
00:56:07.079 --> 00:56:09.880
It went up. Yeah, okay, this one just drops down

1132
00:56:10.639 --> 00:56:12.599
and so, which is essentially the same.

1133
00:56:12.679 --> 00:56:14.599
Yeah, same thing it's gonna be. It's gonna mess with

1134
00:56:14.599 --> 00:56:15.440
you either way.

1135
00:56:15.800 --> 00:56:17.280
Yeah. Yeah, it's crazy.

1136
00:56:17.639 --> 00:56:18.599
It's incentivizing.

1137
00:56:18.760 --> 00:56:20.559
Yeah, and it's kind of It's kind of again, Tad.

1138
00:56:20.679 --> 00:56:23.800
That's the technology when you which makes a lot more sense.

1139
00:56:23.920 --> 00:56:27.000
Rather than have people who are driving the speed of it,

1140
00:56:27.039 --> 00:56:29.920
who are obeying the traffic laws, have their cars get

1141
00:56:29.960 --> 00:56:32.760
beat up by these speed bumps, it would only be

1142
00:56:32.840 --> 00:56:36.639
dealing with those that are exceeding the speed.

1143
00:56:37.519 --> 00:56:39.239
You see Fubo TV this week.

1144
00:56:39.280 --> 00:56:41.559
I did, I did. What do you think about that?

1145
00:56:42.000 --> 00:56:43.800
That was good? It was? It went up to two hundred

1146
00:56:43.800 --> 00:56:45.800
and fifty one percent. They're gonna get bought up by

1147
00:56:45.800 --> 00:56:48.039
Disney and they're going to combine Hulu and Live TV

1148
00:56:48.159 --> 00:56:49.239
services with Fubo.

1149
00:56:50.280 --> 00:56:54.360
Now did Fubo actually did Disney actually buy Fubo or

1150
00:56:54.360 --> 00:56:55.440
did they partner with them?

1151
00:56:55.480 --> 00:56:56.960
I camera, I believe it's a partnership.

1152
00:56:57.159 --> 00:56:59.079
Yeah, No, I don't think they bought them. They partner

1153
00:56:59.159 --> 00:57:03.119
with them to put them on that Hulu Live TV app. Yeah,

1154
00:57:03.360 --> 00:57:05.440
and that's the whole Disney thing. And yeah, I mean

1155
00:57:05.880 --> 00:57:08.079
Fubo finally a dead out of the water with that,

1156
00:57:08.159 --> 00:57:11.440
but still way down from its twenty twenty highs.

1157
00:57:11.800 --> 00:57:14.159
I can't remember the details on Fubu and I should

1158
00:57:14.159 --> 00:57:15.920
I probably shouldn't even bring it up, but it seems

1159
00:57:15.960 --> 00:57:18.639
to me that that's a local person that's involved behind that.

1160
00:57:20.280 --> 00:57:23.559
I've just checked that out more. You have a grad

1161
00:57:23.599 --> 00:57:26.119
I believe, Yeah, I think so, but I need to

1162
00:57:26.239 --> 00:57:28.519
That's something I need to to get to get back

1163
00:57:28.519 --> 00:57:32.480
to you on what about this? What about these quantum stocks?

1164
00:57:32.559 --> 00:57:33.960
Let's talk a little bit more about that, cause we

1165
00:57:34.000 --> 00:57:37.039
started to talk about it. Yell.

1166
00:57:37.920 --> 00:57:40.320
Yeah, I mean, you got a few small ones. Only

1167
00:57:40.320 --> 00:57:42.400
one really makes money. It's I, O and Q makes

1168
00:57:42.440 --> 00:57:44.000
a little bit of money. The other ones don't really

1169
00:57:44.000 --> 00:57:46.920
make any money. It's all speculation on what the future holds,

1170
00:57:47.000 --> 00:57:50.320
kind of like what AI progress was going to be

1171
00:57:50.400 --> 00:57:53.960
twenty fifteen years ago. That idea, it's the next step,

1172
00:57:54.000 --> 00:57:56.159
but it's how quick can they do it? You got

1173
00:57:56.320 --> 00:58:03.280
Google who announced that one quantum computer that it solved

1174
00:58:03.280 --> 00:58:06.840
the problem that normal computers could never really solve hypothetically,

1175
00:58:07.119 --> 00:58:09.199
and like it solved in about five minutes, and they

1176
00:58:09.440 --> 00:58:13.840
reached that milestone two to three years before they initially thought.

1177
00:58:14.320 --> 00:58:18.119
So then they got every quantum stock. Everybody got excited

1178
00:58:18.159 --> 00:58:20.760
about it. They know quantum faster. But then also they

1179
00:58:20.840 --> 00:58:23.239
shot up, kind of like those twenty twenty stocks where

1180
00:58:23.239 --> 00:58:26.360
they just exploded from sixty three cents to twenty dollars

1181
00:58:26.760 --> 00:58:29.920
and all of that, but not based on financials, not

1182
00:58:30.000 --> 00:58:31.480
based on that. It's all based on the hope and

1183
00:58:31.519 --> 00:58:35.519
the expectations and the potential that quantum has, which it

1184
00:58:35.519 --> 00:58:37.559
has a lot of potential. But yeah, and then you

1185
00:58:37.639 --> 00:58:42.519
got however, you said, Jensen Hang, the n Video CEO,

1186
00:58:43.440 --> 00:58:46.079
came out last week and said that it's about fifteen

1187
00:58:46.119 --> 00:58:51.239
to thirty years from actual use, practical use, practical use.

1188
00:58:51.280 --> 00:58:53.559
So then they tank. They dropped forty fifty percent in

1189
00:58:53.599 --> 00:58:55.880
one day because of that. They ganged back a bit

1190
00:58:56.559 --> 00:58:59.239
and they'll still probably be around in that. But it's

1191
00:58:59.280 --> 00:59:02.360
all potential. It's all what is the next step, What

1192
00:59:02.440 --> 00:59:05.960
is the next world with quantum? It's gonna be cool,

1193
00:59:06.320 --> 00:59:08.199
but it's how soon can it be or is it

1194
00:59:08.280 --> 00:59:10.960
just all gonna be? It's kind of like the way

1195
00:59:11.000 --> 00:59:12.880
I see right now is kind of like when will

1196
00:59:13.239 --> 00:59:16.000
we'd be federally legal? Remember when all the weed stocks

1197
00:59:16.000 --> 00:59:18.159
came out, Oh yeah, and everybody was buying them and

1198
00:59:18.159 --> 00:59:21.000
they're doing really well. The ets were doing well because

1199
00:59:21.000 --> 00:59:22.719
of the potential that the government was going to make

1200
00:59:22.760 --> 00:59:25.880
it federally legal. That's not happened, and it just keeps

1201
00:59:25.880 --> 00:59:27.639
getting pushed down the road. Do you never really knowing

1202
00:59:27.679 --> 00:59:31.159
it's gonna happen. Granted, this is individual companies doing it,

1203
00:59:31.159 --> 00:59:34.000
it's not dealing with the government, but same idea from

1204
00:59:34.000 --> 00:59:37.679
what I'm seeing stockwise, they jump up, they'll probably come back,

1205
00:59:37.719 --> 00:59:39.519
and then once one you'll find companies that will start

1206
00:59:39.559 --> 00:59:42.280
making money. They'll find a practically use for quantum and

1207
00:59:42.760 --> 00:59:46.079
it'll be great. Could be Google because Google's got the

1208
00:59:46.159 --> 00:59:48.280
resources in Guardy been doing it.

1209
00:59:48.800 --> 00:59:49.000
Yeah.

1210
00:59:49.000 --> 00:59:51.320
I talked about it for a while on the radio,

1211
00:59:51.480 --> 00:59:55.000
that these quantum stocks were not anywhere close to practical use.

1212
00:59:55.159 --> 00:59:57.079
I say her at the very front, it would be

1213
00:59:57.079 --> 00:59:59.559
five to ten years, he said, fifteen to thirty. I

1214
00:59:59.559 --> 01:00:01.840
don't know. I definitely don't think it's fifteen to thirty

1215
01:00:01.840 --> 01:00:05.320
technologist moves too quickly now, But the fact that it

1216
01:00:05.440 --> 01:00:07.400
just wasn't anywhere close. I mean, I think nuclear is

1217
01:00:07.400 --> 01:00:10.280
way closer than quantum is on a practical level. Quantum

1218
01:00:10.320 --> 01:00:15.519
had no practical, actual applications. So why people thought that

1219
01:00:15.559 --> 01:00:17.960
they could invest in companies that were really small and

1220
01:00:18.000 --> 01:00:20.679
somehow they were going to have breakthroughs in quantum computing

1221
01:00:21.280 --> 01:00:24.559
is just laughable because if you actually understand what it

1222
01:00:24.599 --> 01:00:27.599
takes to create a quantum computer, it takes billions and

1223
01:00:27.679 --> 01:00:30.559
billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars. If small

1224
01:00:30.559 --> 01:00:33.039
companies don't have that, they can't even get funding for that,

1225
01:00:33.320 --> 01:00:35.880
So how would they create a quantum computer? They have

1226
01:00:36.000 --> 01:00:37.880
most of the major one of the one of these

1227
01:00:37.880 --> 01:00:41.079
small quantum computer stocks. He's like, what, I completely disagree

1228
01:00:41.119 --> 01:00:44.199
with Navidio CEO. We're already using practical uses. We're selling it,

1229
01:00:44.400 --> 01:00:46.440
and you sell their revenue and they actually went down

1230
01:00:46.480 --> 01:00:49.000
fifty percent over the last quarter. So if you're selling it, so, well,

1231
01:00:49.000 --> 01:00:52.079
why is it going down? You don't actually have quantum capability,

1232
01:00:52.119 --> 01:00:55.559
you're just calling it quantum, right, And if you actually

1233
01:00:55.559 --> 01:00:57.360
think about it from this a game theory, if quantum

1234
01:00:57.440 --> 01:01:00.159
is as powerful as everyone expecting it to be. Do

1235
01:01:00.159 --> 01:01:01.960
you really think they're going to let a company create

1236
01:01:02.000 --> 01:01:05.199
it first? No, it's going to be a government. It's

1237
01:01:05.239 --> 01:01:07.920
gonna be our military or China. It's not. They're not

1238
01:01:07.920 --> 01:01:10.840
gonna let Google have the most powerful computer in the world,

1239
01:01:12.000 --> 01:01:15.039
every major Just think about how why would a government

1240
01:01:15.119 --> 01:01:19.760
allow Google to hack everyone and everything? They're essentially a

1241
01:01:19.760 --> 01:01:22.960
world government if you haven't quantities. So it's gonna be DARPA,

1242
01:01:23.039 --> 01:01:29.039
which is United States Military, you know, black box of

1243
01:01:29.239 --> 01:01:31.519
new technologies. A lot of people don't know that DARPA

1244
01:01:31.679 --> 01:01:34.960
was the ones that created the microwave, GPS. They helped

1245
01:01:34.960 --> 01:01:39.320
create the Internet with UCLA. DARPA is a defense project

1246
01:01:39.440 --> 01:01:42.159
that that the DoD funds that we don't actually don't

1247
01:01:42.159 --> 01:01:43.679
know how much money is sent to that each year

1248
01:01:43.719 --> 01:01:45.840
of our defense budget. But that helps us get our

1249
01:01:46.039 --> 01:01:49.000
stay advanced, stay in on the cutting edge of technology.

1250
01:01:49.159 --> 01:01:51.320
And those are classified technologies that we will never know

1251
01:01:51.400 --> 01:01:53.840
that they have until eventually we get it. Like they

1252
01:01:53.880 --> 01:01:58.199
created the microwave fifty years before we ever started using microwaves, right,

1253
01:01:58.280 --> 01:02:00.679
I mean, they they had GPS long before it became

1254
01:02:00.719 --> 01:02:04.400
a commercial application for the public. Use, and so it's

1255
01:02:04.559 --> 01:02:07.559
likely that we'll have colonic computing five ten years before

1256
01:02:07.559 --> 01:02:09.519
we ever know it actually got existed.

1257
01:02:09.679 --> 01:02:11.239
Do you think we might have it already?

1258
01:02:11.440 --> 01:02:13.079
I don't know about now. I think you'd see a

1259
01:02:13.119 --> 01:02:15.239
lot of weird things happen if we did, which I

1260
01:02:15.239 --> 01:02:16.719
guess we do, so maybe.

1261
01:02:17.320 --> 01:02:19.440
But I agree with you. It's either going to be

1262
01:02:19.760 --> 01:02:22.519
one of the major governments in the world or Elon Musk.

1263
01:02:24.639 --> 01:02:26.880
They'll kill They'll kill him before they let him have it.

1264
01:02:28.719 --> 01:02:30.920
You never know what the kind of stuff he comes

1265
01:02:30.960 --> 01:02:34.280
up with. But you're absolutely right. It's it's something that's

1266
01:02:34.320 --> 01:02:36.960
going to be difficult for an individual company to do

1267
01:02:37.800 --> 01:02:40.360
because of the cost. But every country in the world

1268
01:02:40.400 --> 01:02:41.199
is trying to do it.

1269
01:02:42.039 --> 01:02:45.239
There's only two countries that can that could though it's China.

1270
01:02:45.280 --> 01:02:47.760
It's only two countries that could do it that have

1271
01:02:47.880 --> 01:02:48.679
the resources.

1272
01:02:48.760 --> 01:02:52.480
You're saying China in the US. Yeah, So no nobody else,

1273
01:02:52.519 --> 01:02:53.559
no other country.

1274
01:02:53.559 --> 01:02:57.880
Name one that has the money and the technical prowess

1275
01:02:57.920 --> 01:03:00.480
to be able to do it. Germany probably Germany has

1276
01:03:00.480 --> 01:03:02.280
a terrible industrial production over.

1277
01:03:02.159 --> 01:03:05.119
The last ten years. It has deteriorated over the last

1278
01:03:05.119 --> 01:03:05.760
ten years year.

1279
01:03:05.679 --> 01:03:07.679
And it's because their socialism, and they have to take

1280
01:03:07.719 --> 01:03:10.760
over what Britain left. And that's why they left is

1281
01:03:10.840 --> 01:03:14.760
those big companies in Eurozone have to be the ones

1282
01:03:14.760 --> 01:03:16.920
that foot the bill for the countries that aren't doing

1283
01:03:16.960 --> 01:03:19.440
their job, and that's why socialism doesn't work.

1284
01:03:19.880 --> 01:03:22.280
So I report on real estate this past week. They

1285
01:03:22.320 --> 01:03:24.519
kind of confused me a little bit. This is a

1286
01:03:24.559 --> 01:03:27.840
report from a company called red Fin. They sell real estate.

1287
01:03:27.880 --> 01:03:31.880
They give real estate reports. Active listings in November were

1288
01:03:31.920 --> 01:03:34.440
twelve percent higher than they were in November of twenty

1289
01:03:34.480 --> 01:03:36.599
twenty three. And I'm thinking, well, of course they are,

1290
01:03:36.880 --> 01:03:39.639
because in twenty twenty two they weren't any active listings

1291
01:03:39.800 --> 01:03:42.599
and nobody wanted to sell their house. Everybody was coveting

1292
01:03:42.679 --> 01:03:45.079
their mortgage. And so here we are a year later

1293
01:03:45.119 --> 01:03:49.559
and active listings are up to just twelve percent, Okay,

1294
01:03:50.400 --> 01:03:54.280
highest level since twenty twenty. More than half of those homes, however,

1295
01:03:54.360 --> 01:03:57.199
have been on the market for at least sixty days

1296
01:03:57.800 --> 01:04:01.480
without going under contract, which is which is what I've

1297
01:04:01.480 --> 01:04:04.719
been seeing. I'm seeing a lot of for sale signs

1298
01:04:04.760 --> 01:04:09.320
popping up steadily every single week, staying up and staying

1299
01:04:09.400 --> 01:04:13.599
up and staying up. And however, the latest monthly price report.

1300
01:04:13.679 --> 01:04:16.039
Get this, This is where I'm a little confused. The

1301
01:04:16.119 --> 01:04:20.280
latest monthly price report from Case Shiller showed prices nationally

1302
01:04:20.320 --> 01:04:24.079
we're up three point six percent in October compared with

1303
01:04:24.199 --> 01:04:26.320
the same month a year ago. I have a hard

1304
01:04:26.320 --> 01:04:29.639
time with that. If in fact, you have more and

1305
01:04:29.679 --> 01:04:32.800
more houses coming on the market and they're not selling,

1306
01:04:33.599 --> 01:04:39.280
how can prices be going higher? Seems like someone is wrong.

1307
01:04:40.000 --> 01:04:41.639
Well, they're they're listing them too.

1308
01:04:41.559 --> 01:04:44.280
High, unless it's just well, and perhaps that's it. But

1309
01:04:44.320 --> 01:04:48.119
that's but if prices nationally are up three point six percent,

1310
01:04:48.480 --> 01:04:51.840
that would be on homes that have sold under contracts,

1311
01:04:52.440 --> 01:04:55.039
those have actually sold. So it's kind of like, how's that?

1312
01:04:55.199 --> 01:04:58.159
How's that possible? And unless maybe there's a lag. Now

1313
01:04:58.239 --> 01:05:01.199
with that said, we have a clients in Green Valley

1314
01:05:01.199 --> 01:05:06.559
who recently moved to La Pasada over in West Green

1315
01:05:06.599 --> 01:05:10.000
I guess East Green Valley if there is such a thing,

1316
01:05:11.400 --> 01:05:13.760
and they sold their home in Green Valley in a

1317
01:05:13.800 --> 01:05:17.360
day and a half. So if you have a good

1318
01:05:17.480 --> 01:05:21.280
property in a desirable location, it's still going to sell

1319
01:05:21.360 --> 01:05:24.119
very rapidly. What I was interested in is we when

1320
01:05:24.119 --> 01:05:27.199
we looked at the report, the Metro areas with the

1321
01:05:27.239 --> 01:05:34.000
fastest home price growth in twenty twenty four, number one

1322
01:05:34.679 --> 01:05:39.599
on the list, Anaheim, California, twelve point five percent increase

1323
01:05:39.639 --> 01:05:42.400
in twenty twenty four. That's on top of a minimum

1324
01:05:42.440 --> 01:05:45.719
home price of a million bucks. How is that possible?

1325
01:05:46.320 --> 01:05:50.159
How can that be? Appreciating that? And here's the good news.

1326
01:05:50.280 --> 01:05:52.440
I'm thinking that there's gonna be some sales over there.

1327
01:05:53.480 --> 01:05:56.079
I'm thinking that real estate prices probably aren't going to

1328
01:05:56.159 --> 01:06:01.119
keep rising in California in the shore term, long term.

1329
01:06:01.159 --> 01:06:04.599
Absolutely, it's always just been supplying demand though. In California, right,

1330
01:06:04.719 --> 01:06:09.119
it's the most desirable place to live in terms of environment, right,

1331
01:06:09.320 --> 01:06:11.440
no question. You don't know environment. You might not love

1332
01:06:11.480 --> 01:06:14.039
the policies, but the environment's beautiful. So when you only

1333
01:06:14.039 --> 01:06:16.320
have a certain amount of homes, you know, you go

1334
01:06:16.360 --> 01:06:18.280
to California a lot of times you'll see these homes

1335
01:06:18.280 --> 01:06:22.079
and they're not great looking homes, but they're very expensive. Obviously,

1336
01:06:22.079 --> 01:06:25.840
there's great parts of California you see beautiful homes. I mean,

1337
01:06:26.280 --> 01:06:27.920
there's a lot of homes where you'll be like, this

1338
01:06:27.960 --> 01:06:31.039
is a million dollars, yep. I mean it doesn't look good,

1339
01:06:31.400 --> 01:06:33.840
but it's a million because of the location, right.

1340
01:06:33.679 --> 01:06:37.280
Yeah, I think in Greater La, a million is literally

1341
01:06:37.280 --> 01:06:38.280
a starter home.

1342
01:06:38.360 --> 01:06:40.440
Right, I mean, yes, you can definitely in La.

1343
01:06:40.519 --> 01:06:43.440
And it's because of the land. It's because of the land.

1344
01:06:43.559 --> 01:06:45.960
And if God, you're absolutely right, just applying a man.

1345
01:06:46.159 --> 01:06:49.280
And as many people as have left California, they've lost

1346
01:06:49.280 --> 01:06:53.039
a seat in the House of Representatives, right, So I

1347
01:06:53.039 --> 01:06:56.960
mean as many peoples that have left California to go

1348
01:06:57.000 --> 01:07:01.760
to Arizona and Texas and others, they're being replaced, I guess,

1349
01:07:02.039 --> 01:07:04.360
although not at a slower pace since they did lose

1350
01:07:04.400 --> 01:07:06.320
a seat in the House Representatives for the first time

1351
01:07:06.320 --> 01:07:09.679
in history. I don't know what this fire is going

1352
01:07:09.719 --> 01:07:11.480
to do. It's going to be real interesting to see.

1353
01:07:11.639 --> 01:07:15.559
Number two in terms of appreciation, this went through me

1354
01:07:15.599 --> 01:07:19.239
a little bit. Newark, New Jersey, number two in the country.

1355
01:07:19.280 --> 01:07:20.920
Eleven percent increase in value.

1356
01:07:20.920 --> 01:07:23.800
You could say that's because everyone in New York, Dylan

1357
01:07:23.840 --> 01:07:25.840
knows a lot about this. It's cheaper to live there,

1358
01:07:26.280 --> 01:07:27.880
and you still get the time.

1359
01:07:28.480 --> 01:07:31.039
Newark is would New York Newark be somewhere you could

1360
01:07:31.079 --> 01:07:31.559
compute to.

1361
01:07:31.800 --> 01:07:35.400
Comp It's like going from Brooklyn to Manhattan.

1362
01:07:35.039 --> 01:07:35.760
Or a little like that.

1363
01:07:36.000 --> 01:07:39.079
It's about maybe in between maybe like thirty forty minutes

1364
01:07:39.119 --> 01:07:40.960
depending and then New Brunswick.

1365
01:07:41.000 --> 01:07:43.800
New Brunswick, New Jersey is third. That must be similar.

1366
01:07:44.000 --> 01:07:46.480
Yeah, people was just trying to relocate, kind of like

1367
01:07:46.519 --> 01:07:48.440
if you were working in California, but you have a

1368
01:07:48.440 --> 01:07:50.360
remote job, right and you're able to live in Arizona,

1369
01:07:50.400 --> 01:07:51.079
You're you're doing that.

1370
01:07:51.159 --> 01:07:53.760
You commute the same way as if you're in Brooklyn

1371
01:07:53.880 --> 01:07:56.480
or something like that. It's just from Newark and he

1372
01:07:56.559 --> 01:07:58.199
paid New Jersey, Texas.

1373
01:07:57.840 --> 01:07:59.679
And I thought it was kind of interesting. Number ten

1374
01:07:59.719 --> 01:08:02.000
on the list in terms of price appreciation over the

1375
01:08:02.039 --> 01:08:07.239
last in twenty twenty four, Detroit up eight point five percent.

1376
01:08:07.519 --> 01:08:11.440
Really, I was talking to the iHeartRadio, the regional manager

1377
01:08:11.519 --> 01:08:13.760
for this area, and she's from Detroit, and I asked her,

1378
01:08:14.079 --> 01:08:17.319
how's Detroit doing. She's like, actually, it's coming back really well.

1379
01:08:17.800 --> 01:08:19.000
Since since it's lows.

1380
01:08:19.199 --> 01:08:21.359
There's there's a fixer upper show, I know, if you've

1381
01:08:21.359 --> 01:08:23.640
ever seen it on the Home and Garden channel. These

1382
01:08:23.640 --> 01:08:26.960
two young guys they buy these homes in Detroit and

1383
01:08:27.039 --> 01:08:28.720
going to fix them up, and then they buy these

1384
01:08:28.720 --> 01:08:33.399
homes for like fifteen grand I mean no seriously foreclosed, no,

1385
01:08:33.840 --> 01:08:38.359
just abandoned or whatever. They're buying these homes for, you know,

1386
01:08:38.479 --> 01:08:41.119
thirty forty fifty thousand dollars to fix them up. And

1387
01:08:41.560 --> 01:08:45.199
they go in and they buy a whole neighborhood which

1388
01:08:45.239 --> 01:08:48.199
is empty, you know, it's been vacated, but it's anyway.

1389
01:08:48.479 --> 01:08:50.600
Detroit's making a little bit of a comeback there.

1390
01:08:51.199 --> 01:08:53.800
A super Bowl would win. A Super Bowl win would help.

1391
01:08:54.079 --> 01:08:57.239
Wouldn't that be something? And I mean, I'm a Viking fan,

1392
01:08:57.399 --> 01:09:00.119
and I like the Viking the hopes of Vikings do well.

1393
01:09:00.119 --> 01:09:02.920
But there's a part of me that says, col on Detroit,

1394
01:09:03.000 --> 01:09:05.359
you know, come on Detroight. I love Kansas City, I

1395
01:09:05.359 --> 01:09:07.560
love Mahomes, but there's a part of me that says,

1396
01:09:07.560 --> 01:09:09.720
come on, why do you like the Vikings? Come on Detroit?

1397
01:09:09.760 --> 01:09:13.159
Because I grew up next door. I mean, that was

1398
01:09:13.199 --> 01:09:14.840
the only when you grew up in South Dakota in

1399
01:09:14.880 --> 01:09:19.479
the middle of that's. My closest city was Minneapolis, and

1400
01:09:19.640 --> 01:09:21.760
the only time we would be able to see a

1401
01:09:21.760 --> 01:09:25.600
professional game would be if we drive into Minneapolis. They

1402
01:09:25.600 --> 01:09:28.399
were They're a local team, the Twins, the local baseball team.

1403
01:09:28.399 --> 01:09:30.600
You know that everybody in that eastern part of South

1404
01:09:30.680 --> 01:09:34.359
Dakota likes it. But it's it's I say, I'm I'm

1405
01:09:34.359 --> 01:09:36.720
a big Mahomes fan. I like watching him play. I

1406
01:09:36.840 --> 01:09:39.359
hope you wish him lots of success. I'd love to

1407
01:09:39.359 --> 01:09:42.760
see the Chiefs and the Lions in the Super Bowl.

1408
01:09:42.880 --> 01:09:44.920
I wouldn't. I hope the Chiefs lose in the first round.

1409
01:09:45.359 --> 01:09:47.399
That way, you could well, because they have to buy

1410
01:09:47.840 --> 01:09:48.720
in their first round.

1411
01:09:49.159 --> 01:09:52.079
That way, for me, I couldn't lose because either the

1412
01:09:52.159 --> 01:09:55.399
Chiefs get a three peat or Detroit gets what the

1413
01:09:55.479 --> 01:09:59.079
first Super Bowl history whenever. I don't think they've ever won.

1414
01:09:59.159 --> 01:10:01.079
The Chiefs are the worst fourteen win team in the

1415
01:10:01.119 --> 01:10:05.159
history of the NFL. But let's move on what it

1416
01:10:05.199 --> 01:10:06.000
doesn't matter, Dave.

1417
01:10:06.359 --> 01:10:09.239
You're saying that what you just said, the Chiefs are.

1418
01:10:09.520 --> 01:10:11.279
Chiefs are the worst fourteen win.

1419
01:10:11.479 --> 01:10:12.159
Yeah, the Chiefs.

1420
01:10:12.159 --> 01:10:14.840
So if you flip all one score games, like if

1421
01:10:14.840 --> 01:10:16.840
they won one score game and it turned into a loss,

1422
01:10:16.840 --> 01:10:18.800
of you flip it the Chiefs for five and twelve.

1423
01:10:19.680 --> 01:10:21.640
I think when you've won the Super Bowl back to

1424
01:10:21.680 --> 01:10:24.199
back years and our favorite wins, oh, we know, we

1425
01:10:24.279 --> 01:10:26.720
know you a little board, we know you love them. No,

1426
01:10:26.800 --> 01:10:30.000
they're just bored, you know, they're board. The whole country

1427
01:10:30.039 --> 01:10:31.159
loves him, loves my home.

1428
01:10:31.239 --> 01:10:34.479
Yeah, the Chiefs are board of winning, of winning. No,

1429
01:10:35.720 --> 01:10:36.640
you're wrong on that one day.

1430
01:10:36.680 --> 01:10:38.479
I don't think the whole country loves the Chiefs anymore.

1431
01:10:38.520 --> 01:10:42.399
I think I think a lot of Patriots they're turning

1432
01:10:42.439 --> 01:10:43.039
into too much.

1433
01:10:43.039 --> 01:10:43.960
Are the evil Giants?

1434
01:10:43.960 --> 01:10:44.880
Now it's the Patriots.

1435
01:10:45.880 --> 01:10:47.479
Oh yeah, I can't stand them.

1436
01:10:47.520 --> 01:10:49.680
And now you've got Lions coming up from nothing.

1437
01:10:50.119 --> 01:10:50.479
They love.

1438
01:10:50.520 --> 01:10:54.000
The country is with the Lions year. That's that's I

1439
01:10:54.039 --> 01:10:54.319
get that.

1440
01:10:55.239 --> 01:10:57.720
I said, I my Bikings fan. I like the Chiefs,

1441
01:10:57.720 --> 01:10:59.520
but I'm you know, if the Lions win, I'm all

1442
01:10:59.640 --> 01:11:02.479
all in, and that's great. They have been down and

1443
01:11:02.520 --> 01:11:05.279
out for so long. I don't think they've ever won

1444
01:11:05.319 --> 01:11:08.960
a Super Bowl, so now they have.

1445
01:11:09.000 --> 01:11:11.680
They won twenty four to seven last year in the

1446
01:11:11.720 --> 01:11:12.920
NFC Championship and lost.

1447
01:11:13.079 --> 01:11:15.640
Yeah, they've only been to the NFC Championship game.

1448
01:11:15.760 --> 01:11:18.000
And you like you like Dan the coach.

1449
01:11:19.399 --> 01:11:22.000
Which is funny. So he played for the Lions back

1450
01:11:22.039 --> 01:11:25.279
when they win zero in sixteen and yeah.

1451
01:11:25.159 --> 01:11:28.479
I don't think I knew that anyway. That's uh. That's

1452
01:11:28.520 --> 01:11:31.039
all coming up this weekend, Wildcard weekend, and then the

1453
01:11:31.159 --> 01:11:36.239
next week we got the National championship game between.

1454
01:11:37.680 --> 01:11:44.560
Two well, Ohio's recording state, the winner the winners, whoever

1455
01:11:44.600 --> 01:11:45.399
wins Friday Night.

1456
01:11:45.439 --> 01:11:47.119
We know Ohio State is going to be Texas, so

1457
01:11:47.159 --> 01:11:47.960
we know that.

1458
01:11:47.800 --> 01:11:50.319
The national champions whoever wins tonight the Friday Night.

1459
01:11:50.359 --> 01:11:52.720
You think, yeah, well, the way Ohio State has been playing,

1460
01:11:52.760 --> 01:11:55.680
it's going to be hard for them not to win it. Anyway,

1461
01:11:55.840 --> 01:11:58.079
We'll be back right after this break with More than

1462
01:11:58.079 --> 01:12:03.560
Money Matter Show. Welcome back to The Moneymatter Show, segment

1463
01:12:03.680 --> 01:12:06.239
number five. Are we ready to rock and roll?

1464
01:12:06.239 --> 01:12:07.439
Sebastian, I'm ready.

1465
01:12:07.560 --> 01:12:10.199
I've got Sebastian, I got Toded, I got Dave Sherwick

1466
01:12:10.520 --> 01:12:13.560
and that's it. And Dylan and Dean had to run off,

1467
01:12:13.680 --> 01:12:15.239
had some things to they need.

1468
01:12:15.279 --> 01:12:18.800
To close out the show here for you all. Obviously,

1469
01:12:18.840 --> 01:12:21.960
this week the risk assets led the way down. It

1470
01:12:22.039 --> 01:12:25.000
was because the interest rates made the storylines. On the

1471
01:12:25.039 --> 01:12:28.199
Friday that we had a really strong labor market report

1472
01:12:28.279 --> 01:12:30.279
come out and that led the rustle of two thousand

1473
01:12:30.359 --> 01:12:32.159
to be down three point three percent for the week.

1474
01:12:32.159 --> 01:12:33.680
But like Dave said earlier in the show, we were

1475
01:12:33.680 --> 01:12:36.880
pretty much flat going into Friday. It was really just

1476
01:12:36.920 --> 01:12:39.800
Friday's price action that made the entire market sell off.

1477
01:12:40.239 --> 01:12:43.560
Now we're on this really key Fibonacci level that's pretty

1478
01:12:43.640 --> 01:12:46.560
much the last stop until fifty seven hundred in my

1479
01:12:46.640 --> 01:12:49.279
opinion right here. So I think we really need to

1480
01:12:49.319 --> 01:12:52.800
have a positive earning week next week or we will

1481
01:12:52.800 --> 01:12:54.880
be going to that fifty seven hundred mark, where I

1482
01:12:54.920 --> 01:12:56.319
think it'd be a good opportunity.

1483
01:12:56.720 --> 01:12:58.840
We finished last week at fifty eight hundred, so it's

1484
01:12:58.880 --> 01:13:00.560
not exactly the end of the world now, No, No,

1485
01:13:00.600 --> 01:13:02.920
I think we twenty it's not even two percent.

1486
01:13:02.760 --> 01:13:05.079
Down fifty eight twenty seven where we are now one

1487
01:13:05.159 --> 01:13:06.840
hundred and twenty seven points used to be big.

1488
01:13:07.399 --> 01:13:09.399
Yeah, it's not when the Dow's at six thousand, is it.

1489
01:13:09.439 --> 01:13:10.479
No, I'm talking about the S and P.

1490
01:13:10.960 --> 01:13:13.199
Yeah, I'm sorry that I said down the S and

1491
01:13:13.239 --> 01:13:16.000
P's a six thousand. It's not. And that's something we've

1492
01:13:16.039 --> 01:13:18.000
talked about on the show. When you see a seven

1493
01:13:18.079 --> 01:13:20.239
hundred point move in the Dow, that used to be

1494
01:13:20.279 --> 01:13:23.359
a big deal when the Dow was, you know, seventeen thousand,

1495
01:13:23.960 --> 01:13:25.800
it's nowhere near as big a deal. When the dows

1496
01:13:25.840 --> 01:13:26.760
is forty two thousand.

1497
01:13:26.800 --> 01:13:28.319
It's still a big deal, though, you know, you see

1498
01:13:28.359 --> 01:13:31.199
seven hundred points you it makes people.

1499
01:13:30.960 --> 01:13:32.079
Call in, that's for sure.

1500
01:13:32.279 --> 01:13:32.479
Yeah.

1501
01:13:32.680 --> 01:13:34.640
No, I get your attention. And what it did for

1502
01:13:34.680 --> 01:13:36.680
me this morning was I was thinking, Man, I got

1503
01:13:36.680 --> 01:13:38.640
to find it. What do I want to buy here?

1504
01:13:39.319 --> 01:13:42.000
You know, I wasn't I wasn't concerned about selling.

1505
01:13:42.840 --> 01:13:45.159
I have a list of about i'd say twenty stocks

1506
01:13:45.239 --> 01:13:47.039
right now that I'm really Bullishawn.

1507
01:13:47.399 --> 01:13:51.279
Okay, I've got a client that called that I spoke

1508
01:13:51.359 --> 01:13:55.800
to on thursdayday. If forgetting Thursday we were closed for

1509
01:13:55.840 --> 01:13:58.720
the National Day of morning. It's weird because this should

1510
01:13:58.720 --> 01:14:00.239
have been the first full week of the year, but

1511
01:14:00.279 --> 01:14:02.960
it wasn't. Next week is the first full week of

1512
01:14:02.960 --> 01:14:06.159
the year, and I'm exhausted just thinking about it. I

1513
01:14:06.159 --> 01:14:07.640
have worked more than four days.

1514
01:14:07.760 --> 01:14:11.960
Well, I think luckily for you, after that full day

1515
01:14:11.960 --> 01:14:13.520
a week, you get a three day weekend.

1516
01:14:13.560 --> 01:14:15.359
Then we do get the three day weekend coming off that,

1517
01:14:15.399 --> 01:14:17.640
so we'll have to rest up after that. Yeah, maybe

1518
01:14:17.680 --> 01:14:19.560
we should just switch the full five day week.

1519
01:14:19.640 --> 01:14:21.439
Is going to be just switched the four day work week,

1520
01:14:21.439 --> 01:14:21.720
I guess.

1521
01:14:21.800 --> 01:14:22.880
Yeah, it's a lot on your plate.

1522
01:14:22.960 --> 01:14:24.760
Hey, we were talking about oil earlier and that's kind

1523
01:14:24.800 --> 01:14:26.319
of gone in a bid lately. You know what has

1524
01:14:26.439 --> 01:14:29.760
quietly gone in bid. Do you guys ever watch natural gas?

1525
01:14:30.359 --> 01:14:33.199
And the last month the United States Natural Gas Fund

1526
01:14:33.239 --> 01:14:37.279
is up twenty five percent. On Friday, Constellation Energy popped

1527
01:14:37.279 --> 01:14:39.479
about twenty four percent because the company announced that it

1528
01:14:39.520 --> 01:14:43.239
was going to buy their geothermal and natural gas company, Calpine,

1529
01:14:43.279 --> 01:14:47.000
in a twenty six point six billion dollars deal. Just interesting.

1530
01:14:47.119 --> 01:14:48.760
Why is natural gas catching the bid?

1531
01:14:48.880 --> 01:14:51.079
You're gonna see a lot of natural gas catching a

1532
01:14:51.119 --> 01:14:53.199
bid over twenty twenty five as some of the reports

1533
01:14:53.239 --> 01:14:55.560
I've been reading as a lot of the inputs that

1534
01:14:55.640 --> 01:14:58.760
you could use oil versus natural gas, or other inputs

1535
01:14:59.439 --> 01:15:01.399
that you don't necessarily have to use natural gas for

1536
01:15:02.000 --> 01:15:05.560
other country people who are creating products that can use

1537
01:15:05.600 --> 01:15:08.039
natural gas are switching to use that. So there's an

1538
01:15:08.199 --> 01:15:11.880
intrinsic demand for the product that wasn't there a couple

1539
01:15:11.880 --> 01:15:13.319
of years ago. That's what I'm hearing from.

1540
01:15:13.560 --> 01:15:16.520
I wonder, I wonder if data centers have any use

1541
01:15:16.560 --> 01:15:17.720
of natural gas within there.

1542
01:15:18.119 --> 01:15:21.760
I don't know. It is the time of the year

1543
01:15:21.800 --> 01:15:24.000
when natural gas does typically rally.

1544
01:15:24.800 --> 01:15:29.399
It's cold outright, but I you know, with Trump coming in,

1545
01:15:29.399 --> 01:15:31.439
I don't think we're going to be using less natural gas.

1546
01:15:31.479 --> 01:15:33.319
So there, I think there's gonna be plenty of demand

1547
01:15:33.439 --> 01:15:37.600
for it, and there's not that much same level of supply.

1548
01:15:37.640 --> 01:15:40.159
It'd say that the oil market can bring on a

1549
01:15:40.159 --> 01:15:41.039
moment's notice.

1550
01:15:41.199 --> 01:15:43.880
Well, it would be nice to see a more natural gas,

1551
01:15:44.000 --> 01:15:47.079
more nuclear things that we have plenty of. Right.

1552
01:15:47.119 --> 01:15:51.239
Well, you know what's interesting is who produces the most

1553
01:15:51.319 --> 01:15:52.319
oil in the world.

1554
01:15:53.399 --> 01:15:56.159
Who produces the most oil in the world. Yeah, can

1555
01:15:56.199 --> 01:15:57.279
I say the United States?

1556
01:15:57.319 --> 01:16:00.239
It's the United States of America. So it's it's so

1557
01:16:00.239 --> 01:16:02.920
crazy that people don't think like we're drilling oil for

1558
01:16:02.960 --> 01:16:06.000
some reason because we're ESG. Some people think that, of course,

1559
01:16:06.079 --> 01:16:09.000
but we actually are producing more oil than ever. Of

1560
01:16:09.039 --> 01:16:11.800
course we don't. It's not net production because it's actually

1561
01:16:11.840 --> 01:16:15.920
Saudi Arabia because they don't consume that much oil compared

1562
01:16:15.960 --> 01:16:16.600
to us.

1563
01:16:16.600 --> 01:16:17.600
Good point, it's good.

1564
01:16:17.680 --> 01:16:20.239
So they they're they're a larger net producer, so they

1565
01:16:20.359 --> 01:16:23.720
actually are the largest exporter because they don't. But you know,

1566
01:16:23.760 --> 01:16:26.560
I learned that we don't actually use the gas that

1567
01:16:26.600 --> 01:16:30.439
we make well mine here, we send it else we

1568
01:16:30.520 --> 01:16:33.439
selld it elsewhere because our refineries here in the United

1569
01:16:33.479 --> 01:16:37.439
States are set up for dirtier versions of oil, and

1570
01:16:37.479 --> 01:16:40.600
the new versions of refineries that we would take to

1571
01:16:41.520 --> 01:16:44.119
refine this new oil that we now mine here in

1572
01:16:44.159 --> 01:16:46.520
the States, that is, the cleaner version, would take like

1573
01:16:46.560 --> 01:16:49.319
ten years to build out. And since we're so against

1574
01:16:49.359 --> 01:16:51.800
oil in the future, a lot of the big companies

1575
01:16:51.800 --> 01:16:55.680
aren't wanting to build new refineries, so instead they export

1576
01:16:55.680 --> 01:16:58.279
the oil that we might hear to other places that

1577
01:16:58.399 --> 01:17:00.560
have the new miners because it's cheaper to make it there.

1578
01:17:01.079 --> 01:17:04.199
And then from the point they bring the ven is,

1579
01:17:04.399 --> 01:17:06.199
they don't bring it the same oil back. No, they

1580
01:17:06.239 --> 01:17:08.680
bring the dirty oil that we've always been using because

1581
01:17:08.680 --> 01:17:10.439
the refineries that we have set up here in America

1582
01:17:10.520 --> 01:17:13.039
are set up for those refineries because we've been an

1583
01:17:13.079 --> 01:17:16.119
importer for so long, so we've always been importing, you know,

1584
01:17:16.199 --> 01:17:19.319
from Venezuela and the Middle East, and that's what our

1585
01:17:19.359 --> 01:17:22.000
refiners are set up to refine that type of oil.

1586
01:17:22.079 --> 01:17:25.079
So we actually refined that and we export most of.

1587
01:17:25.119 --> 01:17:27.920
Those and the light sweet Texas crude, which is light

1588
01:17:28.000 --> 01:17:30.000
sweet because it's a better oil, right.

1589
01:17:29.920 --> 01:17:32.560
We don't have ewhere. Majority of it goes out, So

1590
01:17:32.720 --> 01:17:35.880
it's interesting, yeah, yeah, because our refineries here is aren't

1591
01:17:35.880 --> 01:17:37.640
set up to refine that type of oil.

1592
01:17:38.560 --> 01:17:43.079
A couple of interesting stocker moves this week. Walgreens, which

1593
01:17:43.119 --> 01:17:45.800
is it's just a terrible twelve months for the company,

1594
01:17:46.039 --> 01:17:49.279
sixty percent of its market value gone, got kicked out

1595
01:17:49.319 --> 01:17:51.840
of the Dow after one of the shortest runs in history,

1596
01:17:52.239 --> 01:17:55.199
twenty five percent higher on Friday to a four month

1597
01:17:55.279 --> 01:17:59.039
high after reporting quarterly earnings well above expectations due to

1598
01:17:59.119 --> 01:17:59.920
cost cutting.

1599
01:18:00.800 --> 01:18:02.640
You know, I was, I was soelling, taught about it earlier,

1600
01:18:02.680 --> 01:18:05.319
and I was walking into Ross for whatever reason this

1601
01:18:05.359 --> 01:18:09.199
week and I was like, basically past. It's like I

1602
01:18:09.239 --> 01:18:12.479
was walking through TSA checkpoint to get into the store. Yeah,

1603
01:18:12.520 --> 01:18:14.920
And I was just thinking, like, why doesn't Walgreens do something?

1604
01:18:15.119 --> 01:18:17.560
No, no, no, A guy there guard at the door.

1605
01:18:17.960 --> 01:18:19.960
Yeah, and see you're not allowed to actually walk in.

1606
01:18:20.000 --> 01:18:23.760
They have like a little you know, cut off detect Yeah. Yeah, yeah,

1607
01:18:23.760 --> 01:18:25.439
you have to. It's a TSA checkpoint.

1608
01:18:25.479 --> 01:18:28.239
I don't understand it. I just don't understand a basketball

1609
01:18:28.239 --> 01:18:30.039
Greens employees, they don't understand it.

1610
01:18:30.840 --> 01:18:33.239
I also don't understand the twenty seven percent up move

1611
01:18:33.279 --> 01:18:33.760
on Friday.

1612
01:18:33.920 --> 01:18:36.720
I asked someone, I said, do you think there's going

1613
01:18:36.800 --> 01:18:38.960
to be more or less Walgreens on the corners than

1614
01:18:38.960 --> 01:18:41.840
ten years from now, and you had to think about it.

1615
01:18:42.199 --> 01:18:44.720
I'm just like that. I think that's a pretty easy answer.

1616
01:18:44.800 --> 01:18:47.720
There's not going to be more Walgreens ten years from now.

1617
01:18:47.920 --> 01:18:51.479
You wouldn't think so. You wouldn't think so, but they're

1618
01:18:51.479 --> 01:18:52.000
probably should.

1619
01:18:52.159 --> 01:18:54.479
And you're now the technology, you could probably create a

1620
01:18:54.520 --> 01:18:55.680
Walgreens in your house.

1621
01:18:55.800 --> 01:18:57.800
I'm gonna have like a drone drop it off like you.

1622
01:18:57.760 --> 01:18:59.840
Could probably have a you were gonna have a three

1623
01:18:59.880 --> 01:19:02.800
D printer that creates every product. You just have to

1624
01:19:02.920 --> 01:19:05.560
order it from the cloud and it prints it for

1625
01:19:05.600 --> 01:19:06.319
you in your house.

1626
01:19:06.520 --> 01:19:07.760
We could hope.

1627
01:19:09.319 --> 01:19:12.359
I'm telling you, we're not that far off from these

1628
01:19:12.399 --> 01:19:13.119
type of things.

1629
01:19:13.239 --> 01:19:15.800
No, I didn't you know that same milk Boying, the

1630
01:19:15.800 --> 01:19:19.840
worst performing dovestock, slowly recovering over the past month, and

1631
01:19:19.920 --> 01:19:22.399
got a boost on Monday after Barclay's. I thought this

1632
01:19:22.520 --> 01:19:26.159
was Gussie. Barclays upgraded the stock to a BUYE with

1633
01:19:26.199 --> 01:19:29.520
a price target twenty five percent above Friday's Clothes. I

1634
01:19:29.560 --> 01:19:34.199
thought that was pretty aggressive. We all, I was talking

1635
01:19:34.560 --> 01:19:37.960
this past week to a man who had his career

1636
01:19:38.000 --> 01:19:42.600
at Boying, and he was not necessarily the biggest fan

1637
01:19:42.680 --> 01:19:46.439
of Boeying. Ever, it's difficult to work for that large

1638
01:19:46.439 --> 01:19:49.479
of a company because your voice really isn't heard, and

1639
01:19:49.520 --> 01:19:51.399
so I think there's a lot of frustration. I think

1640
01:19:51.399 --> 01:19:55.039
we see that with raytheon employees as well. There's a

1641
01:19:55.039 --> 01:19:58.880
little frustration there. But I said, I think Boying will

1642
01:19:58.920 --> 01:20:01.079
come back, and he said, oh absolutely, you know, there

1643
01:20:01.119 --> 01:20:03.199
was no if Sam's your buy the body, of course

1644
01:20:03.239 --> 01:20:05.760
it'll come back, you know. And then he was a

1645
01:20:05.840 --> 01:20:08.000
he was a big fan, worked up into listening to

1646
01:20:08.399 --> 01:20:10.199
worked up there spends the winters in Tucson.

1647
01:20:11.520 --> 01:20:15.880
You were saying, no, no, no, you're finishing Starbucks. Well no,

1648
01:20:16.039 --> 01:20:18.239
you're done with the Boeing. Okay, sorry, I didn't want

1649
01:20:18.239 --> 01:20:20.640
to cut you off. Thank you. Okay, So this is

1650
01:20:20.840 --> 01:20:24.079
the day. The Friday was the day of Constellation, all right,

1651
01:20:24.960 --> 01:20:26.079
in two different companies.

1652
01:20:26.279 --> 01:20:28.279
Okay, all right, if you don't.

1653
01:20:28.119 --> 01:20:33.640
Know, Constellation Energy up twenty four percent on Friday. They

1654
01:20:33.720 --> 01:20:36.399
they're just doing really good. Natural Gas is what we

1655
01:20:36.399 --> 01:20:39.479
were talking about earlier, natural Gas getting a bit and

1656
01:20:39.520 --> 01:20:44.960
there that's their best company out the other Constellation that

1657
01:20:45.279 --> 01:20:48.399
all the money went away from it. Constellation Brands, that's

1658
01:20:48.439 --> 01:20:51.720
the people that make the beers, the Modello and people

1659
01:20:51.760 --> 01:20:52.159
that make.

1660
01:20:52.079 --> 01:20:54.479
The number one selling beer in the world.

1661
01:20:56.760 --> 01:20:58.720
Is it not bud Light again, it's not.

1662
01:20:59.600 --> 01:21:00.439
Well, you know, Light has it.

1663
01:21:00.600 --> 01:21:03.960
They got bud Light by a little bit.

1664
01:21:04.039 --> 01:21:06.319
But David, they've got all this increased demand off of

1665
01:21:06.359 --> 01:21:09.479
the you know, I'm gonna boycott against bud Lights. What

1666
01:21:09.520 --> 01:21:13.199
does that do to their manufacturing, you know, or the production?

1667
01:21:13.600 --> 01:21:13.840
You know?

1668
01:21:14.159 --> 01:21:17.680
Can they No, Constellation isn't what do you what do

1669
01:21:17.760 --> 01:21:18.039
you mean?

1670
01:21:18.319 --> 01:21:20.800
He said? He said they gotta they couldn't. Odella brand

1671
01:21:20.840 --> 01:21:24.039
got a nice boost off the bud Light pushback.

1672
01:21:24.199 --> 01:21:26.119
Yeah, right, so they couldn't keep up with it, or

1673
01:21:26.119 --> 01:21:28.279
maybe their margins weren't.

1674
01:21:28.359 --> 01:21:29.920
Well, no, they can easily put out.

1675
01:21:30.159 --> 01:21:32.640
Here's what I can't understand. The stock is is at

1676
01:21:32.640 --> 01:21:36.920
a four year low. Uh, it's not a fifty Hugh Weego.

1677
01:21:37.039 --> 01:21:39.439
It's it's the lowest level since the pandemic.

1678
01:21:40.039 --> 01:21:42.640
Well, it kind of just range trained for like two years,

1679
01:21:42.720 --> 01:21:44.520
up and down, up and down, and then this seventeen

1680
01:21:44.560 --> 01:21:47.880
percent drop just really took out all the games. We

1681
01:21:47.880 --> 01:21:49.680
were in it for a while, actually we had we

1682
01:21:49.840 --> 01:21:53.079
were in it, but we we exited it about four

1683
01:21:53.159 --> 01:21:56.399
or five months ago. After that kind of crazed them

1684
01:21:56.479 --> 01:21:58.279
up by light. I thought kind of ran away. We

1685
01:21:58.439 --> 01:22:01.760
just you know, the dividend was nice, but he said

1686
01:22:02.119 --> 01:22:02.880
it's time to go.

1687
01:22:03.479 --> 01:22:06.640
And yeah, the sales of the sales of wine and

1688
01:22:06.680 --> 01:22:10.520
spirits were down fourteen percent, dragged down by weaker consumer

1689
01:22:10.680 --> 01:22:15.840
demand and continued m'stry restocking. The CEO said he did

1690
01:22:15.880 --> 01:22:19.520
not know when consumers would return to a normal spending pattern.

1691
01:22:19.800 --> 01:22:21.279
That this is in an economy this.

1692
01:22:21.239 --> 01:22:25.359
Way, retail sales just came out hot, it come out cold.

1693
01:22:25.479 --> 01:22:27.960
I mean, if you're if you're stinking it up right now,

1694
01:22:28.039 --> 01:22:29.319
I don't know what's going to help you.

1695
01:22:29.840 --> 01:22:34.680
GP One, don't forget that Constellation also owns Canopy Growth

1696
01:22:34.920 --> 01:22:37.680
thirty three percent of the company, So anything that you

1697
01:22:37.720 --> 01:22:39.760
know that's on their balance sheet. They that was a

1698
01:22:39.840 --> 01:22:42.520
really terrible investment. They bought it like when that share

1699
01:22:42.600 --> 01:22:45.439
price was like thirty three bucks and now it's at

1700
01:22:45.520 --> 01:22:48.279
like eight, So they lost a lot of money on

1701
01:22:48.319 --> 01:22:48.960
that investment.

1702
01:22:49.039 --> 01:22:52.159
CANape Growth is at like three is it? I think

1703
01:22:52.159 --> 01:22:55.520
it's three and a half hour or something like that,

1704
01:22:55.640 --> 01:22:58.159
maybe even below that. But yeah, that's been a horrible

1705
01:22:58.159 --> 01:23:01.239
investment for them. Yeah, that's been really but it's it

1706
01:23:01.239 --> 01:23:03.000
hasn't really come into.

1707
01:23:02.760 --> 01:23:06.479
Play, hasn't in a while, but it's always a two

1708
01:23:06.520 --> 01:23:09.880
dollars forty five on their balance sheet. They literally report

1709
01:23:10.199 --> 01:23:13.479
balance sheet numbers x their canopy growth investment. That's how

1710
01:23:13.479 --> 01:23:13.920
bad it is.

1711
01:23:14.039 --> 01:23:15.920
They bought half they I thought they about half the

1712
01:23:15.920 --> 01:23:17.439
company and it could be could have been a third

1713
01:23:17.560 --> 01:23:20.000
bit at thirty three dollars a share and now it's two.

1714
01:23:20.560 --> 01:23:22.239
So yeah, that didn't work out well at all. But

1715
01:23:22.600 --> 01:23:25.199
their quarterly reports have been pretty darn good over the

1716
01:23:25.279 --> 01:23:30.279
last twelve months, even with the canopy growth down right,

1717
01:23:30.840 --> 01:23:33.960
so not much. Starbucks down two percent over the past

1718
01:23:34.039 --> 01:23:38.479
ninety days. Excitement about new Brian Nichols administration has been

1719
01:23:38.520 --> 01:23:42.680
overshadowed by labor problems. Barclay's stepped up to the plate.

1720
01:23:42.720 --> 01:23:45.680
They thinks the quiet period is an opportunity. Raised the

1721
01:23:45.680 --> 01:23:48.199
stock to a buy again with a price target twenty

1722
01:23:48.199 --> 01:23:51.560
five percent above Friday's close. A Starbucks.

1723
01:23:51.600 --> 01:23:54.239
Another big increase we saw this week was from Oaklow

1724
01:23:54.800 --> 01:23:59.000
that stock continues the big, big increases. I'm hearing big things.

1725
01:23:59.039 --> 01:24:01.479
And also I'm pretty sure we talked about the Energy

1726
01:24:01.520 --> 01:24:05.319
secretary being on the border there, Yeah, Oklo. Sam Altman's

1727
01:24:05.359 --> 01:24:08.199
on the board. That's an interesting company.

1728
01:24:08.479 --> 01:24:10.199
It is going to be interesting going forward, and I

1729
01:24:10.239 --> 01:24:12.079
think there's gonna be a little bit more wheelared and

1730
01:24:12.119 --> 01:24:14.000
dealing going on in the Trump administration.

1731
01:24:14.600 --> 01:24:15.720
We'll talk a little bit about after the.

1732
01:24:16.079 --> 01:24:17.960
We're talking after the break. We're coming up on a

1733
01:24:17.960 --> 01:24:20.000
break here. We'll be back with the final segment of

1734
01:24:20.039 --> 01:24:21.800
the Money Matter Show.

1735
01:24:22.239 --> 01:24:23.960
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

1736
01:24:23.960 --> 01:24:26.880
Sebastian Borsini. I'm here with David Sherwood and Todd Glick Junior.

1737
01:24:26.920 --> 01:24:29.439
We're talking about small module reactors. And the reason that's

1738
01:24:29.520 --> 01:24:32.720
such an interesting space again is think about the small

1739
01:24:32.800 --> 01:24:36.520
towns around Arizona that have to have seventy fifty miles

1740
01:24:36.520 --> 01:24:39.399
of power lines of energy be run towards them to

1741
01:24:39.439 --> 01:24:41.239
be able to be connected to the energy grid. And

1742
01:24:41.279 --> 01:24:44.640
that's a very archaic system because the idea that you're

1743
01:24:44.680 --> 01:24:47.239
actually going to have an energy grid reach out to

1744
01:24:47.279 --> 01:24:50.159
these small places and they have to go over these

1745
01:24:50.640 --> 01:24:53.439
hundreds of miles of barren land, you're going to have

1746
01:24:53.520 --> 01:24:57.680
problems with getting that energy transferred. So you instead have

1747
01:24:57.760 --> 01:25:00.399
these small modu reactors. Apparently they're even the size of

1748
01:25:00.439 --> 01:25:03.479
a pickup truck, and so these small major reactors are

1749
01:25:03.560 --> 01:25:06.439
nuclear driven, and you can put them on these small

1750
01:25:06.479 --> 01:25:10.159
towns anywhere and it will power the entire town. You

1751
01:25:10.199 --> 01:25:12.319
don't need to connect it to the power grid. So

1752
01:25:12.359 --> 01:25:14.880
there's But also I heard that the power grid that

1753
01:25:14.920 --> 01:25:17.039
we have currently is the size of a pickup truck.

1754
01:25:17.239 --> 01:25:18.880
The size of the pickup truck, that's how small these

1755
01:25:18.880 --> 01:25:22.920
small maderiaitis and it can easily, you know, get through

1756
01:25:22.920 --> 01:25:25.520
the entire city energy. You know, you might have to

1757
01:25:25.560 --> 01:25:28.319
have like you know, nine or ten for the city

1758
01:25:28.319 --> 01:25:31.680
of Tucson, right, But these these things have a lot

1759
01:25:31.720 --> 01:25:33.640
of power in them, and they don't work on the

1760
01:25:33.680 --> 01:25:36.760
traditional nuclear where you know, if all humans go extinct,

1761
01:25:36.840 --> 01:25:39.239
they can blow up themselves if no one's there to

1762
01:25:39.279 --> 01:25:40.560
make sure that they get shut down.

1763
01:25:40.920 --> 01:25:42.640
I had a client to call me last week. She

1764
01:25:42.720 --> 01:25:47.279
had some property up outside of Saint John, about thirty

1765
01:25:47.279 --> 01:25:52.319
miles outside of Saint John, four three forty acre parcels

1766
01:25:52.319 --> 01:25:54.479
that she wanted to sell. So I'm familiar with some

1767
01:25:54.520 --> 01:25:56.760
real estate people in the northern nour Zona got a

1768
01:25:56.760 --> 01:25:58.079
hold of him and he went out and looked at

1769
01:25:58.079 --> 01:26:00.159
it and he goes, yeah, he said, they're four or

1770
01:26:00.600 --> 01:26:02.680
three excuse me, three forty acre parcels. Two of them

1771
01:26:02.680 --> 01:26:04.279
are side by side, so you could sell that as

1772
01:26:04.319 --> 01:26:07.399
an eighty acre parcel. He said, there is no electricity

1773
01:26:08.039 --> 01:26:11.680
or water to the site. He said, that's no big deal.

1774
01:26:11.920 --> 01:26:14.399
I said, it means no big deal. No electricity, you

1775
01:26:14.399 --> 01:26:16.159
know what, he doesn't no people up here, he said,

1776
01:26:16.159 --> 01:26:18.560
you just put it well in. He said, it'll be fine.

1777
01:26:18.640 --> 01:26:22.560
And almost everybody appears on solar. Isn't that amazing? I

1778
01:26:22.560 --> 01:26:24.640
mean that because you're so remote that there are no

1779
01:26:24.720 --> 01:26:28.279
power lines going. And if you think about that, driving

1780
01:26:28.319 --> 01:26:35.079
in northeastern Arizona, the Four Corners area, there are hundreds

1781
01:26:35.159 --> 01:26:38.520
of miles where there's just nothing, nothing, nothing. And so

1782
01:26:38.840 --> 01:26:42.000
if you had land out there and wanted to build

1783
01:26:42.000 --> 01:26:45.039
a home or live out there for whatever reason, you

1784
01:26:45.079 --> 01:26:50.000
could And and I could see how these nuclear reactors

1785
01:26:50.039 --> 01:26:53.199
you get, one of these small pickup size nuclear reactors

1786
01:26:53.319 --> 01:26:54.840
is going to power the entire neighborhood.

1787
01:26:54.880 --> 01:26:59.520
Well, you're also going to give the opportunity is small towns.

1788
01:26:59.560 --> 01:27:01.840
Being in these small you know a lot of people

1789
01:27:01.840 --> 01:27:04.159
have land in places that they would never really actually

1790
01:27:04.199 --> 01:27:05.880
build because they can't get power to But if you're

1791
01:27:05.920 --> 01:27:09.560
able to eventually build like these small, little cities. You're

1792
01:27:09.600 --> 01:27:12.680
going to see almost a decentralization maybe eventually away from

1793
01:27:12.800 --> 01:27:15.720
urbanization that we've seen over the last one hundred and

1794
01:27:16.159 --> 01:27:17.199
almost fifty years.

1795
01:27:17.319 --> 01:27:19.239
We're not just going to put a small modular reactor

1796
01:27:19.279 --> 01:27:21.399
out there for a couple hundred people.

1797
01:27:21.279 --> 01:27:22.720
No, why not?

1798
01:27:23.680 --> 01:27:24.159
You don't know.

1799
01:27:24.279 --> 01:27:26.039
I mean, if you think about twenty years and the

1800
01:27:26.039 --> 01:27:29.479
practical ability, if you're able to produce them at certain scales,

1801
01:27:29.600 --> 01:27:31.520
all of a sudden, you could get to the point

1802
01:27:31.560 --> 01:27:34.279
where maybe it's a thousand people's cities, and maybe people

1803
01:27:34.359 --> 01:27:36.760
feel more safe to be in a thousand people cities,

1804
01:27:36.960 --> 01:27:39.159
still connected, you know, maybe a thirty minute drive to

1805
01:27:39.199 --> 01:27:41.800
a big city. But you know, you're starting to see

1806
01:27:41.840 --> 01:27:44.319
that already where people are wanting to not be so

1807
01:27:44.439 --> 01:27:46.560
much in the city, and that trend is probably going

1808
01:27:46.640 --> 01:27:51.239
to continue because we've seen society go into this urbanization

1809
01:27:51.399 --> 01:27:54.520
period over the last almost two hundred years, and so

1810
01:27:55.159 --> 01:27:57.520
eventually we could see the reverse of that where people

1811
01:27:57.560 --> 01:27:59.760
want to then kind of get their own space again.

1812
01:28:00.239 --> 01:28:02.359
And this might allow it because if you think of

1813
01:28:02.560 --> 01:28:05.039
the reason people urbanize is because all the energy is

1814
01:28:05.079 --> 01:28:07.119
in one place, and it's really easy to get the

1815
01:28:07.199 --> 01:28:09.680
energy to one place and it's harder to get it

1816
01:28:09.720 --> 01:28:12.439
to these barren lands. But some people want that, and

1817
01:28:12.520 --> 01:28:14.199
I think a lot of people don't even know they

1818
01:28:14.239 --> 01:28:15.760
want it because they have to be in the city

1819
01:28:15.800 --> 01:28:18.199
to get connected to energy, to get connected to the

1820
01:28:18.239 --> 01:28:21.880
services that they think are part of normal life.

1821
01:28:22.479 --> 01:28:23.760
I think we've seen a little bit of that here

1822
01:28:23.880 --> 01:28:26.479
two song with Saddlebrook, which is not exactly right next

1823
01:28:26.479 --> 01:28:29.960
door to a major city, and then Saddlebrook Ranch, which

1824
01:28:30.000 --> 01:28:34.560
is even further out there. And yet these are sustainable communities.

1825
01:28:35.119 --> 01:28:38.560
The people are loving them and enjoying that. That lifestyle

1826
01:28:39.399 --> 01:28:42.560
with some elbow room and a will away from the

1827
01:28:42.600 --> 01:28:46.800
city likes, which is good. Carvana A stock had tripled

1828
01:28:46.840 --> 01:28:49.880
over the last twelve months, moved lower after the Hindenburg

1829
01:28:49.960 --> 01:28:54.039
short selling service said it's all smoking mirrors. Now I remember, now,

1830
01:28:54.079 --> 01:28:58.920
Hindenburg benefits when stock goes down, right, So Hindenburg will

1831
01:28:58.960 --> 01:29:01.680
sell a stock, short sell stock they don't own, in

1832
01:29:01.760 --> 01:29:03.479
the hope that they're going to buy it back cheaper,

1833
01:29:03.800 --> 01:29:05.720
and then they'll come out and say nasty things about

1834
01:29:05.720 --> 01:29:08.760
the company. You may remember what they what their attention

1835
01:29:08.880 --> 01:29:11.920
did to super micro computer. They said the same thing

1836
01:29:11.920 --> 01:29:14.840
with super micro computer that the accounting was all messed up,

1837
01:29:14.960 --> 01:29:17.159
and and it was. And the next thing you know,

1838
01:29:17.239 --> 01:29:19.680
super micro Computer has gone from one hundred to thirty.

1839
01:29:19.960 --> 01:29:20.279
Yeah.

1840
01:29:20.479 --> 01:29:25.159
Uh. Carvana, on the other hand, kind of yawned when

1841
01:29:25.239 --> 01:29:28.520
Hindenburg said it's all smoking mirrors and and then a

1842
01:29:28.560 --> 01:29:33.199
few days later it rallied back after RBC upgraded to

1843
01:29:33.319 --> 01:29:36.680
stock to a BYE. The next day City Group upgraded

1844
01:29:36.760 --> 01:29:40.239
this doc to a BYE. If you're Handenburg, that's kind

1845
01:29:40.279 --> 01:29:43.199
of like, whoops. Didn't expect that to happen.

1846
01:29:43.399 --> 01:29:46.840
So I'm not gonna lie though. I feel like there's

1847
01:29:46.880 --> 01:29:47.439
something to.

1848
01:29:47.399 --> 01:29:51.600
That, something to it, a mirror feeling that there could be.

1849
01:29:51.640 --> 01:29:53.680
I don't like Carvona. I mean I was looking at

1850
01:29:53.720 --> 01:29:55.439
the two sixteen as a way over price, and I'm

1851
01:29:55.479 --> 01:29:57.760
looking at the Pepe ratio right now and.

1852
01:29:57.720 --> 01:29:58.880
It's does it have one?

1853
01:29:58.920 --> 01:29:59.880
It's over two thousand?

1854
01:30:00.960 --> 01:30:03.319
Yeah, yeah, the trailing.

1855
01:30:04.319 --> 01:30:07.399
No, I think that's just straight straight.

1856
01:30:07.199 --> 01:30:08.159
Up ee ratio.

1857
01:30:08.199 --> 01:30:10.039
It's two and forty seven.

1858
01:30:10.119 --> 01:30:12.439
See, that's the big mistake they made. They got an E.

1859
01:30:13.720 --> 01:30:15.760
If you don't have an E, you don't have a PE,

1860
01:30:16.000 --> 01:30:19.840
right right. But once you get an E, then is

1861
01:30:19.920 --> 01:30:20.399
the value.

1862
01:30:20.520 --> 01:30:22.359
I mean, the owner is a guy from Tucson, so

1863
01:30:22.439 --> 01:30:24.079
I mean, I hope the company works out for him.

1864
01:30:24.159 --> 01:30:27.239
Yeah, Ernie Garcia and his family, And this is the

1865
01:30:27.239 --> 01:30:31.680
guy that bought ugly duckleying rental car from Tom Duck.

1866
01:30:32.600 --> 01:30:36.439
And that's funny. Tom Duck was Tom Duck's daughter married

1867
01:30:36.720 --> 01:30:42.680
Jim Giesling. So the Ducks and no Tom Ducks right now,

1868
01:30:44.319 --> 01:30:46.720
Tom Duck. I knew Tom Duck forty years ago. Tom

1869
01:30:46.800 --> 01:30:49.319
Duck was a kind of an older entrepreneur. He kept

1870
01:30:49.319 --> 01:30:51.279
trying to hit the home run all his life, and

1871
01:30:51.359 --> 01:30:53.279
when he was in his seventies, he came up with

1872
01:30:53.319 --> 01:30:57.960
his ugly Duckling rental car and Ernie Garcia bought ugly

1873
01:30:58.079 --> 01:31:01.319
Duckling rental car from him. As I call, and uh,

1874
01:31:01.399 --> 01:31:03.840
you know, Tom Duck before he died was a multi millionaire,

1875
01:31:03.920 --> 01:31:05.840
which is what he's been trying to do for his

1876
01:31:06.079 --> 01:31:06.560
entire life.

1877
01:31:06.760 --> 01:31:08.680
And then Nurnie went up and bought the auction up

1878
01:31:08.720 --> 01:31:09.239
in Phoenix.

1879
01:31:09.479 --> 01:31:11.760
Yeah, and then they give him all the credit the world.

1880
01:31:11.840 --> 01:31:14.319
I mean, I Carvana was left for dead two years

1881
01:31:14.359 --> 01:31:17.359
ago around two two dollars dollars a share. It was

1882
01:31:17.399 --> 01:31:20.319
done and the whole the whole thing was just gonna

1883
01:31:20.640 --> 01:31:25.079
go could put and it has since exploded higher and

1884
01:31:25.119 --> 01:31:27.319
it keeps going. Now we've got now, we've got the

1885
01:31:27.479 --> 01:31:31.600
uh the Hindenburg is short selling service, saying it's all

1886
01:31:31.600 --> 01:31:34.039
buying the sky and a couple of major brokers firms,

1887
01:31:34.119 --> 01:31:36.239
and you need to buy this. You know, I had

1888
01:31:36.319 --> 01:31:38.840
two thousand times earnings. I'm not sure I'm a buyer.

1889
01:31:39.039 --> 01:31:40.600
I'm not sure I'm touching that thing.

1890
01:31:40.640 --> 01:31:43.520
You know, I'm not gonna be put clicking the sale

1891
01:31:43.520 --> 01:31:44.640
signal there? How about you see it?

1892
01:31:45.119 --> 01:31:47.479
I'm good, I'll stay away from it. I'll add it

1893
01:31:47.520 --> 01:31:49.079
on the watch list. I'll take a look at it.

1894
01:31:49.119 --> 01:31:52.560
But it's not gonna artics, right, I love it. I

1895
01:31:52.560 --> 01:31:54.319
love it even more now that's what?

1896
01:31:54.399 --> 01:31:56.840
Did you see? What they got there? The They were

1897
01:31:56.920 --> 01:31:59.800
up three percent on Wednesday, following upgrade to buy from

1898
01:31:59.840 --> 01:32:04.760
new at ubs Ubs has Noble remains the most exciting

1899
01:32:04.840 --> 01:32:08.359
growth story in European pharmists one place to continue to

1900
01:32:08.399 --> 01:32:11.560
benefit from high demand from GLP one medications. In your term,

1901
01:32:11.760 --> 01:32:12.640
they have ozambic.

1902
01:32:12.880 --> 01:32:14.760
Well, you know why it's the most exciting in.

1903
01:32:14.720 --> 01:32:20.439
Europe, right, because there isn't much exciting exactly? Did I

1904
01:32:20.479 --> 01:32:21.279
get it all? Right?

1905
01:32:22.760 --> 01:32:25.960
But I mean Novo's down what over the past six months,

1906
01:32:26.039 --> 01:32:31.760
and they still have one of the most highly demanded

1907
01:32:31.800 --> 01:32:33.000
drugs out there right now.

1908
01:32:33.239 --> 01:32:37.720
Yes, yes, it's kind of like similar to Eli Lelly Eli.

1909
01:32:37.760 --> 01:32:41.279
Lilly has really taken a hit here down about twenty percent.

1910
01:32:41.760 --> 01:32:47.920
They have the earth shaking weight loss drug and an

1911
01:32:47.960 --> 01:32:50.960
Alzheimer's drug that is supposedly a bigger deal than the

1912
01:32:50.960 --> 01:32:51.319
weight line.

1913
01:32:51.319 --> 01:32:52.920
I think that's going to be the really big deal for.

1914
01:32:53.560 --> 01:32:53.920
I think so.

1915
01:32:54.159 --> 01:32:56.720
But I mean, the nice thing about Nova have is

1916
01:32:56.760 --> 01:32:59.840
a two hundred day weekly average, and that takes the

1917
01:32:59.840 --> 01:33:03.279
lot two hundred weeks average, and it's sitting right on

1918
01:33:03.800 --> 01:33:06.720
that line right now. So that's always a good place

1919
01:33:06.760 --> 01:33:08.760
that if you like a company you've been waiting for

1920
01:33:08.840 --> 01:33:10.800
it to come back from its all time highs, the

1921
01:33:10.840 --> 01:33:13.039
two hundred weekly average is always a good place to

1922
01:33:13.159 --> 01:33:15.359
start a position in a company that you've been waiting

1923
01:33:15.600 --> 01:33:18.039
for it to come down. It might keep going lower,

1924
01:33:18.239 --> 01:33:21.399
but the two hundred weekly can normally act as a trampoline.

1925
01:33:21.600 --> 01:33:24.640
Speaking of going lower, AMD and Intel cannot get out

1926
01:33:24.680 --> 01:33:25.359
of their own way.

1927
01:33:25.479 --> 01:33:28.359
I haven't been watching Intel AMD though. That's crazy.

1928
01:33:28.479 --> 01:33:32.560
Let's Intel. Intel's down in the nineteen's again, and AMD's

1929
01:33:32.600 --> 01:33:34.840
gone from I want to say one to sixty to

1930
01:33:35.199 --> 01:33:36.920
one ten something like sixteen.

1931
01:33:37.079 --> 01:33:40.399
Currently, AMD had a really bad problem with their pea

1932
01:33:40.399 --> 01:33:43.000
in my opinion, and they're coming back to reality. I

1933
01:33:43.000 --> 01:33:45.439
think at this point you start to look at the

1934
01:33:45.520 --> 01:33:48.720
same thing with AMD that they just came up on

1935
01:33:48.760 --> 01:33:51.600
their two hundred day week, two hundred weekly average as well,

1936
01:33:51.880 --> 01:33:53.920
So I think that's a good place to at least start.

1937
01:33:54.000 --> 01:33:57.119
Maybe in AMD, you know, saying that their all time

1938
01:33:57.199 --> 01:34:01.479
I at two thirty, right, you're down to one one fifteen,

1939
01:34:02.079 --> 01:34:06.960
So it's an over half discount six months ago. Yeah,

1940
01:34:07.000 --> 01:34:09.640
I mean it was in it was February twenty four.

1941
01:34:09.760 --> 01:34:12.800
But the idea of it is, you know, you've been

1942
01:34:12.800 --> 01:34:16.239
waiting for this opportunity. Maybe you start one percent here

1943
01:34:16.479 --> 01:34:18.920
building if it keeps going lower, another one percent. But

1944
01:34:19.840 --> 01:34:20.960
it's a nice place that.

1945
01:34:20.880 --> 01:34:25.000
It's definitely dollar cost average because I think people got

1946
01:34:25.039 --> 01:34:27.560
caught up in the fact that everybody's looking for the

1947
01:34:27.600 --> 01:34:30.159
next end vidio, right, And I think people got caught

1948
01:34:30.199 --> 01:34:34.279
up in the in the relationship, the family relationship between

1949
01:34:34.279 --> 01:34:37.439
the CEO of Nvidia and the CEO of AMD, then

1950
01:34:37.640 --> 01:34:38.239
can't fire.

1951
01:34:39.720 --> 01:34:41.439
The nice thing about AMD two is you have the

1952
01:34:41.479 --> 01:34:45.000
completion of the Elliott five wave pattern. I'm down.

1953
01:34:45.399 --> 01:34:50.079
These are all technical analysis. Again, a technical analysis. Some

1954
01:34:50.199 --> 01:34:53.399
call it voodoo. It tends to work because.

1955
01:34:53.279 --> 01:35:00.439
I call it prophecy. We live in a similar and

1956
01:35:00.479 --> 01:35:01.600
somehow this stuff knows.

1957
01:35:01.760 --> 01:35:03.279
You put a fractal on a charge and you see

1958
01:35:03.319 --> 01:35:04.960
the way that it just bounces off these things.

1959
01:35:04.960 --> 01:35:06.560
It's insane. It just doesn't make sense.

1960
01:35:06.560 --> 01:35:07.399
It doesn't make sense.

1961
01:35:07.560 --> 01:35:10.159
How does a ten year yield bounce off a fractal?

1962
01:35:10.359 --> 01:35:11.880
It doesn't make any sense, but it does.

1963
01:35:11.960 --> 01:35:12.039
So.

1964
01:35:12.960 --> 01:35:15.960
Yeah, Well, the reason that it works is because everybody uses.

1965
01:35:15.840 --> 01:35:19.479
That's not true, that's not true. That's been proven not

1966
01:35:19.560 --> 01:35:20.119
to be true.

1967
01:35:20.399 --> 01:35:23.760
I just I agree with that is completely not true.

1968
01:35:23.880 --> 01:35:25.600
Reason it works because.

1969
01:35:25.319 --> 01:35:27.920
Everyone would have to know how to use it, and

1970
01:35:27.960 --> 01:35:32.000
no one knows all how to use subject machines are

1971
01:35:32.000 --> 01:35:36.640
only like twenty percent of the volume. It's enough, No,

1972
01:35:36.800 --> 01:35:39.800
not enough to make the whole market move. Every single

1973
01:35:39.880 --> 01:35:44.520
asset class, even bonds, but every single assecon.

1974
01:35:44.520 --> 01:35:48.239
Money managers put their like their stop losses at these levels.

1975
01:35:48.359 --> 01:35:48.840
You know what I mean.

1976
01:35:48.880 --> 01:35:51.039
That's they don't all have the same levels. They all

1977
01:35:51.079 --> 01:35:53.520
have different levels. You think they all picked the exact

1978
01:35:53.560 --> 01:35:54.119
same level.

1979
01:35:54.960 --> 01:35:55.720
Makes no sense.

1980
01:35:56.640 --> 01:35:59.399
Todd continue to just have to out of the off

1981
01:35:59.600 --> 01:36:02.720
off the We want to be happy. We all want

1982
01:36:02.760 --> 01:36:04.640
to be healthy, because if we're not healthy, we're probably

1983
01:36:04.640 --> 01:36:07.079
not happy. At a Greenberg Financial, what we really want

1984
01:36:07.119 --> 01:36:09.920
to be is profitable to you next week