Aug. 3, 2025

Money Matters: From Tech Highs to Trade Turbulence

Money Matters: From Tech Highs to Trade Turbulence
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Money Matters: From Tech Highs to Trade Turbulence
Money Matters: From Tech Highs to Trade Turbulence
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This week on Money Matters, the market soared early on Big Tech strength but crashed back to earth by Friday. Microsoft and Meta dazzled with blockbuster earnings, Amazon beat expectations but flagged margin concerns, and Apple lost steam under tariff pressure and muted guidance. The Fed held interest rates steady once again, offering no lifeline but hinting at a 50-50 shot for cuts in September. Then came the real market gut check, Friday’s weak jobs report and a surprise tariff threat from Trump that sparked fresh trade war anxiety and rattled multinational earnings outlooks.
We also dive into the crypto market and the future of stablecoins, recap more earnings reports, and look ahead to what August could bring for investors.
And don’t miss our upcoming interactive financial planning seminar where we break down what a real financial plan looks like and how it can give you clarity, control, and confidence no matter what the markets do.
If you would like to contact us to learn more about our firm, our seminars, and our process - call us at 520.544.4909 or go to our website at www.Greenbergfinancial.com or email us at Contact@Greenbergfinancial.com

WEBVTT

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Well, good morning everybody. It's Sunday morning right here, seven

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ninety knst. We're here to talk to you about money

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matters and all all the things that go with it.

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There's a lot going on this week, as you saw

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in the markets. This is Dean Greenberg. Everybody else will

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be joining us just in a little bit. And what

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we need to talk about is the big reversal we

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had in the market. We climbed all the way over

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to sixty four hundred on the SMP on Thursday, and

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we reversed pretty much one hundred points on the s

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and P five hundred and one day, continually down on Friday.

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And there's a lot of other things going on. Okay,

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Basically at the end of the day, you have to

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look at this and say, where is the news to

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make us go higher? A lot of the news is out.

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We have agreements with Europe, we have agreements so sort

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of with China, we have agreements with Japan, we have

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agreements with South Korea. With we have a whole bunch

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of trade agreements that are in there. The ones that

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have not been done. He raised tariffs on trying to

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squeeze them to come to the table it's a wouldn't

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win for both. I know some people think, wow, how

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is that good for us because it raises our prices. Well, one,

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we haven't seen the prices raised yet. Two, some of

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it will be absorbed. And three yes, some of them

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will be a one time raising price. As capitalism is,

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you decide and choose what you want and not want.

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But if it's going to give us surpluses of tens

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of billions of dollars a month, that's only going to

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help our economy. It's going to help what we do. Okay,

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it is not fair that every one of our manufacturer,

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everyone everything we export will paying taxes and as a

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bat for us to get into countries around the world,

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but they don't have the same barrier to come to

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our country. There will be some challenges. I'm not going

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to deny that with the fact that we have to

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go ahead and we'll see some areas of the markets rise.

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But if you put everything into play that Trump's trying

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to do with his economy here, things will be exactly

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the way we want it to be. Hey, all you

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have to look at is all these experts that told

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you that everything he's doing is going to destroy the

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economy and the markets are showing you that. And when

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they went down, it took us two months for the

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markets to realize that the tariffs and his economic plan

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and the things he's doing and the people coming to

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the table with the tariffs is only positive for us,

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only positive for all these technology companies. Even Apple showed

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better than expected earnings. With all the hooplare going on. Now,

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does that mean it's not going to have some problems

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along the world. Of course it is. Nothing's a straight

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shot to the top. So on a technical basis, we

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kind of got to little over sixty four hundred. We

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shot a shot everything we could into it. All the

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good news reversed as soon as he said tyrres it's

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an excuse for people to go ahead and sell a

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little bit. But the bigger news is interest rates. Okay,

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that's the key to this whole economic part. This week,

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We're kept seeing these labor reports come out over the

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last few months showing quote that we had, you know,

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higher labor, good labor, tight labor, and then all of

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a sudden, the adjustments come in and the lower then expected,

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which means that the Fed could have been lower interest rates,

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and says the same thing that Trump says. Trump says,

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our economy is getting we could we need to lower

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interest rates across the board. Now here's the thing we

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all know. There's a tip going on with Powell and Trump, right,

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so what they need to do, Okay, if it's going

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to be really independent, is not allowed politics or feelings

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about one another get into play. Trump is allowed to

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say that he feels part of his economic policy is

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to bring down interest rates. Powell's allowed to say, well,

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these are the things that they're going to go in

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a certain direction. But when you feel that there's more

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of a power play there, Powell trying to hurt not

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only Trump, because if you hurt Trump, you're going to

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hurt the economy. Then there's a problem he had. Remember

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in September of last year, for the first time in

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fifty years, Jerown Powell had no problem lowering interest rates

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right before the election as the first time someone from

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the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, and fifty year is

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two months before the election. It doesn't usually happen. Then

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he lowered them again and the inflation news got better.

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So the only thing he's holding up now is saying, well,

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the labor report was tight, and the and that we

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don't know the the inflationary problems that we're going to

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have because of tariffs, Well here it is. You now

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see that the revised numbers on the job market, on

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the job front was less than expected, which means there's

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an easing there. You saw unemployment take up, and you've

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seen inflation pretty much tamed. So why not lower interistrates

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right now? With the caveat that says, if we have

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to raise rates because we see too much inflation coming

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back because of tariffs, will raise rates again. But remember

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the terriff is not an inflationary situation on an ongoing

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basis like we had with Biden. Under Biden, we didn't

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know what with the level of inflation was because it

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just kept going higher and higher until we got our

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hands around it. And in fairness, a lot of that

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was coming out of the pandemic and we had a

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less we didn't have as many goods trying to get

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through the pipeline and everything else. And I get that,

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but it still got up pretty high until it started

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coming back down with tarifs. Anything that goes up, that's it.

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You're not going to continually see you go up unless

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taris kept going up. If that's going to be the case,

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I am not so sure it's going to be the case.

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If we go ahead and allow us to lower rates. Now,

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that's good for the country. That's good for the individual

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of our citizens, American citizens. It's good for obtaining moving

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in and getting home price is going together, going into

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being able to see people moving in the home markets.

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You know, nobody wants to leave their homes right now.

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When you got two point seventy five or three or

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three and a half percent rates for seven, we've got

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to get those rates back into the five five and

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a half percent rates, and you'll start seeing the home

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market come back and be revived again in the right way,

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not just because it's type inventory or or people need

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to be able to move or do this or do that.

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Because when the housing market is strong and things are

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going right and we can build and people buy, think

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about all the other companies that go into the house

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that they're going to make money too, Not just the

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builders and the construction workers, but everything from washing machines

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and kitchen appliances, the bedroom stuff to living room things

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to pool supplies. It helps the economy grow. So I

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think what's going to happen here is whether it happens

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now or it happens next year, you'll see ways come

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down and that will be the impetus for us to

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get that second boost for growth. So with all that said,

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I'm looking for the markets to pull back a little bit.

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I had been looking for the market to pull back.

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We've been caution is going into this, and I think

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right now, if we see a five percent pullback or

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so or seven pretty much max. I don't think it's

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going to be more than that. Maybe ten, I don't know.

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So that puts us somewhere around six thousand, fifty nine

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hundred and six thousand. If it was ten percent of

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it'll bring us down to about fifty about fifty seven

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hundred or something. I would be all in because if

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it happens, durre in August September, which is the worst one,

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so you should be pulling back anyway. I think the

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last quarter we're going to see the market's rally. I

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think I think there's a good chance we'll see interest

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rates come down a little bit, and I think we'll

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see for one more time one way or the other,

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all right, and then and then we'll go from there.

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But the big thing is that you saw this week

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is that no matter what's going on, these tech companies

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are the companies that are blowing out earnings. You saw

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Meta and Microsoft this week. You saw Apple. Amazon wasn't

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too bad, but they got hit. But Meta and Amazon,

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Meta and Microsoft just took off and along with all

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the other ones that are with them. I mean, I

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haven't seen a Meta up eighty points in one day,

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you know, I don't know if I ever did. Maybe

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they did during the big, big swings we had, but

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I mean, those are the things you look for, and

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they're gonna keep going fire. Their video keeps making new highs.

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It's not going anywhere. If you can just take yourself,

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remove yourself a little bit and understand that AI, artificial

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intelligence is in the infancy state. Probably the best way

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to look at it is is back when we just

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started coming out with computers and that changed everything. That

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led to the Internet, and that whole thing put together

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created an incredible, incredible growth area in our economy. As

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we moved through there, the icing on the cake with

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the smartphones with Apple, Okay, that was the next big

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thing that grew. And now in the next thing now,

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So what are we fifteen years into that? Now? Now

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it's artificial intelligence. And I know there's things behind that quantum,

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quantum computing and all, but I'm just going to stay

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right now in this artificial intelligence. There's so many different

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areas of artificial intelligence that is positive. Yes, we all

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know there's a little there's some negatives, but the positives

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that are there in the healthcare industry, in the manufacturing industry,

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and and self driving. I mean, you know, imagine this,

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how many people and you know, get older and they

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can't drive, but they want to drive, and they still

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try to keep their driving license. It would be great

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to have a car you just get into. You never

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have to lose your independence. It's your car. You going

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place where you want to go by just going ahead

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and telling that the computer artificial intelligence, this is where

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I want to go, and they take you. You don't

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need a driver, you don't need to drive, and it'll

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be a lot safer for you and everybody else. These

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are things that are positives. Eventually. You know, people talk

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about home robots, robotics, it's going We've seen that robotics

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in many ways working in manufacturing, healthcare business, it's going

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to happen at home, and it's going to be expensive

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at first. So this is why there's a long, a

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long leeway for all this to come in the play.

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And remember all the other companies and the software companies

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and the chip companies and everything else that comes in

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that are going to make this industry keep growing. Now,

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if you think about big screen TVs, right, you know

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the flat screens when they first came out Plasmas and all,

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they were five, six, seven, ten thousand dollars. You want

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a big one to you, you would talk about thirty

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five forty grand for your home if you wanted to

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get one of those seventy eighty inches. Think about how

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much they are. Now, this is what's going to happen

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over the next ten to fifteen years. You're going to

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see the robotics come out. You're going to see the

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driver's cossblower. You're going to see all these things come out,

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and they're not going to be the norm. They're going

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to be kind of like, wow, look at that, that's

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kind of cool. But over time they're going to become

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the norm because they're going to become at a price

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point where most people can afford them and will want

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to use them. No different than a smart phone. Almost

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everybody in the world. Almost everybody in the world as

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a smartphone, and they still go for eight hundred dollars

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or one thousand bucks to twelve hundred dollars. But when

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it first came out, there were a lot more. So

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think about that, and that's still a lot of money

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today for most people eight hundred and twelve hundred. But

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they get them. They do this. This is why I'm

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so high store on technology for the next five, seven,

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ten years. Will there be blips, yes, will there be

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pulled back chests. Will some of the big good companies

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kind of like stroll out like Apple did for a

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while and then have to get going against deaths. The

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biggest one though, is Intel. Right when you look at Intel,

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there's a perfect example of a company that can make

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a lot of money, but there's no growth, so it

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doesn't get rewarded with the stock prices. And that's something

230
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you can see happening down the road. I don't think

231
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we're there yet. I still think the video and Broadcom

232
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and a MD still have a lot of growth in

233
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him over the years. Now, will they be will they

234
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get aheaded times absolutely now. Not only are the chip

235
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companies that what about all the cooling, what about all

236
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the electricity, what about all the things that come into

237
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play in this industry. There's going to be abundance of

238
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jobs that are available there and people need to start looking.

239
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So the biggest thing we need right now is to

240
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get interest rates lower. With the news on Friday, with

241
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all the the readjustments to the jobs report, and then

242
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and then Trump coming out and and firing the labor

243
00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:46.360
statistics guy. Great move. You know what, he's running this

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country as a business. I know people get all upset

245
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with him when he does this, but there's no tolerance.

246
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You're in. You're in as a president for four years period.

247
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That's all he's got right now. So if he sits

248
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around a and waits and makes mistakes, it's not going

249
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to work. At least when he does make a mistake,

250
00:15:06.159 --> 00:15:10.200
at least when something's not working, he changes it. That's

251
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the sign of a very successful leader, person that understands

252
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where the vision is and where he wants to go.

253
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They know they're not always right, but they're right more

254
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than they're wrong, and they're definitely right more than the

255
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people that are against them. And when you put that

256
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in perspective and understand that, that's when you put the

257
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whole thing together and realize, Wow, maybe I don't understand this,

258
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but it's going in the right direction. Maybe there's people

259
00:15:35.240 --> 00:15:39.559
out there like myself who understand it, who are telling

260
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you in the end, this is probably going to be

261
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very good with bumps in the road, and to look

262
00:15:45.039 --> 00:15:49.600
for opportunities to take advantage of it. I'm not a

263
00:15:49.639 --> 00:15:52.440
big fan right now in the healthcare industry. You see

264
00:15:52.519 --> 00:15:55.480
him talking down healthcare. He wants prices to come down.

265
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It's going to have to come from somewhere. It's going

266
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to come from the pharmaceutical and drug companies, healthcare companies.

267
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That's one of the reasons. That's an area I'm trying

268
00:16:03.840 --> 00:16:06.480
to avoid as much as possible right now. But when

269
00:16:06.519 --> 00:16:10.919
technology gets going and as AI gets going, those are

270
00:16:10.919 --> 00:16:12.519
those are the companies that are going to use it.

271
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They're going to offset the costs that they're going to

272
00:16:15.399 --> 00:16:19.320
feel by lower prices, by lowering the cost of manufacturing

273
00:16:19.320 --> 00:16:23.720
and doing the things they do very very important. As

274
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we go through this, you're going to see companies emerge.

275
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Chances of those little companies really emerging and and and

276
00:16:31.799 --> 00:16:36.039
and and growing to be another Google or or Nvidia

277
00:16:36.120 --> 00:16:39.720
or those It's going to be hard because these big

278
00:16:39.720 --> 00:16:47.440
companies like Nvidia, A m D, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple,

279
00:16:48.120 --> 00:16:52.879
they're investing in all these startup companies, which we need,

280
00:16:53.360 --> 00:16:55.360
and that's the way they're getting a lot of their

281
00:16:55.480 --> 00:17:00.759
R and D done. And then when that company matures, okay,

282
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they'll give them an offer to buy them out, make

283
00:17:04.039 --> 00:17:07.160
the people that started it very very wealthy, bring them

284
00:17:07.160 --> 00:17:10.200
on board, and then they'll grow it from there and

285
00:17:10.240 --> 00:17:12.160
they'll be part of a bigger company. That's why I'm

286
00:17:12.200 --> 00:17:15.359
saying it's going to be hard in our life times

287
00:17:15.759 --> 00:17:18.240
to see these companies grow like this again, because you

288
00:17:18.279 --> 00:17:20.759
got to give it twenty five. You know, these companies

289
00:17:20.839 --> 00:17:22.720
been around. Apple's been around them, mamember it almost went

290
00:17:22.799 --> 00:17:25.599
bankrupt in the nineties, and the video a few times,

291
00:17:25.599 --> 00:17:28.920
and down and out and down nowhere until about ten

292
00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:32.240
years ago when it started. So these companies come on

293
00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:36.640
and continue to grow over time, and there'll be some

294
00:17:36.720 --> 00:17:39.720
others and there'll be other areas, but right now there's

295
00:17:39.759 --> 00:17:43.279
no reason not to speak in the sweet spot. So,

296
00:17:44.720 --> 00:17:47.559
you know, summarizing the markets right now, we've rallied. We've

297
00:17:47.640 --> 00:17:50.000
rallied strong a lot more than that figure. It would

298
00:17:50.000 --> 00:17:52.839
be people are taking profits right now. I think the

299
00:17:52.880 --> 00:17:57.200
profit taking will continue. August, September October are the worst

300
00:17:57.240 --> 00:17:59.960
months of the year. August can hang in there, September

301
00:18:00.160 --> 00:18:03.279
usually down. October puts in the bottom and usually comes up.

302
00:18:03.960 --> 00:18:06.680
I'm looking for the same type of thing back and forth.

303
00:18:06.759 --> 00:18:10.519
Maybe not that much of a decline three five seven percent,

304
00:18:10.759 --> 00:18:14.000
maybe ten. I will be looking for opportunities in the

305
00:18:14.039 --> 00:18:17.720
same strong stocks I've had there to add to them,

306
00:18:18.079 --> 00:18:19.640
because those are the ones that are going to be

307
00:18:19.720 --> 00:18:25.480
bought when the markets fall. It's inevitable. The strongest companies

308
00:18:25.759 --> 00:18:27.960
during that time are the ones that come back. And

309
00:18:28.000 --> 00:18:30.279
if you think about it, when we just got hit

310
00:18:30.359 --> 00:18:33.480
in twenty two, twenty twenty two, and then the videos

311
00:18:33.519 --> 00:18:36.039
and the apples and all that were under one hundred,

312
00:18:37.519 --> 00:18:39.799
look where they are now. And remember and the video

313
00:18:39.839 --> 00:18:43.160
is split big time after that. Okay, So there's a

314
00:18:43.160 --> 00:18:46.000
lot of stuff that is going on that is going

315
00:18:46.079 --> 00:18:48.880
to give us that opportunity if you're patient and you

316
00:18:48.960 --> 00:18:50.880
have some cash. So how do you do that? You

317
00:18:50.960 --> 00:18:54.359
mitigate risk. We always talk about mitigating risk and put

318
00:18:54.359 --> 00:18:56.720
it down but you have to plan for it. You know,

319
00:18:56.920 --> 00:18:58.640
you have to plan for where you want to be

320
00:18:58.720 --> 00:19:01.200
and what you want to do. And you know, the

321
00:19:01.240 --> 00:19:05.839
biggest thing I see as I've been traveling and talking

322
00:19:05.880 --> 00:19:11.039
to people, very very very wealthy people, very good people.

323
00:19:12.680 --> 00:19:17.599
You know that a spot they have no plan on

324
00:19:17.640 --> 00:19:23.599
how to retire. They've always in their lives accumulated wealth,

325
00:19:24.880 --> 00:19:30.039
grow wealth, save money. They don't know how to deaccumulate

326
00:19:30.079 --> 00:19:32.720
that wealth, how to take their moneys that they now

327
00:19:32.799 --> 00:19:36.759
have and spend it in a manner that they don't

328
00:19:36.759 --> 00:19:39.359
want out of money. Everyone is afraid once that paycheck

329
00:19:39.440 --> 00:19:44.039
comes in, how am I going to survive? To go

330
00:19:44.119 --> 00:19:46.400
through there? Well, one of the things you have to

331
00:19:46.480 --> 00:19:49.519
understand is you can't spend all your money right away,

332
00:19:50.400 --> 00:19:53.480
all right, because that will go. You can't take out

333
00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:57.559
ten or fifteen percent out of your account every year

334
00:19:57.599 --> 00:20:00.799
and think that's going to last very long. But you

335
00:20:00.839 --> 00:20:03.759
come up with a strategy, a plan that fits your

336
00:20:03.839 --> 00:20:08.079
lifestyle within the means that you can make it happen. Now. Obviously,

337
00:20:08.160 --> 00:20:10.480
you know, social security adds to it. If you have

338
00:20:10.559 --> 00:20:13.200
a pension, that's even better, but a lot of people

339
00:20:13.240 --> 00:20:16.480
don't have pensions anymore, and that's always my concern. More

340
00:20:16.519 --> 00:20:19.480
and more people don't have pensions. I love the talk

341
00:20:19.799 --> 00:20:22.960
that they are not talking about going. One of the

342
00:20:23.000 --> 00:20:26.119
things I've always said is how to private tize social security.

343
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With a plan over the next twenty five to thirty years,

344
00:20:29.839 --> 00:20:33.200
we can wean ourself for social security and everyone that

345
00:20:33.279 --> 00:20:35.880
deserves it will get it, And everybody that will have

346
00:20:35.960 --> 00:20:39.319
private accounts will have more money in their accounts than

347
00:20:39.319 --> 00:20:43.319
they ever had before. I see that starting with hey,

348
00:20:43.759 --> 00:20:46.559
you can put money away for your children, you know,

349
00:20:46.640 --> 00:20:49.440
five thousand dollars here, and that that will grow for them.

350
00:20:49.680 --> 00:20:53.440
Everyone knows that if you have fifty sixty years of growth,

351
00:20:53.640 --> 00:20:56.400
that's better than ten years of growth or twenty years

352
00:20:56.440 --> 00:21:00.160
of growth. It grows. But if you think about this,

353
00:21:00.599 --> 00:21:03.759
if we took social Security and the employee's money and

354
00:21:03.799 --> 00:21:07.480
the employee's money both went into a private account that

355
00:21:07.599 --> 00:21:11.119
you cannot touch, it's like it's your pension account, just

356
00:21:11.200 --> 00:21:14.039
like social Security, but it's your money. And you see

357
00:21:14.079 --> 00:21:15.880
that growing, you're going to feel pretty good about it.

358
00:21:16.200 --> 00:21:17.960
And then when you get to a certain age, whatever

359
00:21:18.000 --> 00:21:20.880
that is fifty five, sixty, sixty five, sixty seven, you

360
00:21:20.880 --> 00:21:23.640
can take a percentage job by innuitizing some of it

361
00:21:23.960 --> 00:21:27.920
into a cash flow, into a check that comes to

362
00:21:28.000 --> 00:21:32.119
you just like it is now. Think about how wealthy

363
00:21:32.279 --> 00:21:36.039
America would be. Think about even the people that are

364
00:21:36.039 --> 00:21:42.319
at the low economic ladder of the economy right putting

365
00:21:42.359 --> 00:21:47.119
money away and being matched where that would be in thirty,

366
00:21:47.200 --> 00:21:51.039
forty fifty years from now. And the best part about

367
00:21:51.079 --> 00:21:54.720
it is you have to buy us government bonds and

368
00:21:54.759 --> 00:21:58.279
you have to buy a stock indexes that will be

369
00:21:58.559 --> 00:22:02.279
able to go ahead of stocks nothing like that. It

370
00:22:02.319 --> 00:22:09.720
will absolutely absolutely grow America, make people wealthy, and we

371
00:22:09.799 --> 00:22:13.160
would we would reduce our poverty. But no, what is

372
00:22:13.160 --> 00:22:15.279
everyone said, Oh, this is just fourth for Wall Street,

373
00:22:15.480 --> 00:22:18.039
this is for people. No, it's not. It's for the

374
00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:22.240
Americans to capitalize on living here and growing. It's no

375
00:22:22.400 --> 00:22:26.200
different than working for a company and buying their stock

376
00:22:26.519 --> 00:22:28.440
with the hope that stock is going to go up

377
00:22:28.480 --> 00:22:30.799
because you're working for them all the time and make

378
00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:34.440
you money. So if we're supporting interest rates lower by

379
00:22:34.759 --> 00:22:42.039
ourselves buying bonds, supporting the stock market, that brings capitalism

380
00:22:41.640 --> 00:22:46.720
to the forefront. What is wrong with that? I don't

381
00:22:46.759 --> 00:22:50.759
get it, don't understand it. But obviously politicians use everything,

382
00:22:51.240 --> 00:22:54.200
but the fact that it's being talked about. Other ideas

383
00:22:54.200 --> 00:22:56.359
and how to save money is going to be there

384
00:22:56.599 --> 00:23:00.480
because we need to worry about where we are in

385
00:23:00.480 --> 00:23:02.640
in costing. I mean, you know, I know we always

386
00:23:02.640 --> 00:23:05.839
talk about it, but kids today, our children today, our

387
00:23:05.839 --> 00:23:09.640
grandchildren today, it costs them a lot more to live

388
00:23:10.119 --> 00:23:13.359
than we did. And wages and that got up as

389
00:23:13.480 --> 00:23:17.079
much as pricing and everything else has and then not

390
00:23:17.160 --> 00:23:19.960
going back because labor prices are up. So we have

391
00:23:20.000 --> 00:23:23.279
to find other ways for people to actually save and

392
00:23:23.319 --> 00:23:27.559
do a good job. So in summary, market's a little

393
00:23:27.559 --> 00:23:30.599
bit risky right now. Mitigate your risk. Look for a

394
00:23:30.680 --> 00:23:33.519
pullback to around the six thousand level to start looking

395
00:23:34.079 --> 00:23:36.920
maybe the fifty nine hundred. If it comes lower than that,

396
00:23:37.079 --> 00:23:40.160
to fifty seven, fifty eight, fifty five, I'd be all in.

397
00:23:40.519 --> 00:23:42.640
Looking for us to move up in the fourth quarter.

398
00:23:42.960 --> 00:23:45.680
I don't see anything stopping us. And next year I

399
00:23:45.680 --> 00:23:48.000
think is going to be even better than this year,

400
00:23:48.359 --> 00:23:50.000
and I hope it is. We'll see what happens. We

401
00:23:50.079 --> 00:23:52.400
got to get these things implemented. We have to get

402
00:23:52.440 --> 00:23:59.079
these tariff negotiations done, and we need to get lower

403
00:23:59.119 --> 00:24:01.839
interest rates. Get all that stuff together, and we stopped

404
00:24:01.839 --> 00:24:03.599
the wards in the Middle East, we stopped the wars

405
00:24:03.640 --> 00:24:05.720
in Russia. All the time. We're going to be in

406
00:24:05.759 --> 00:24:08.359
great shape. Thank you for listening. We'll be be back.

407
00:24:08.759 --> 00:24:11.960
I really really appreciate that you will listen to us

408
00:24:12.200 --> 00:24:15.319
and appreciate what we do for you. Have a great day.

409
00:24:15.599 --> 00:24:17.920
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. Thank you Dean

410
00:24:17.960 --> 00:24:20.079
for doing the monologue. I'm Dylan Greenberg here with Todd

411
00:24:20.119 --> 00:24:21.720
Glick and Sebastian Borsini.

412
00:24:21.759 --> 00:24:24.400
Dean is up in Alaska with my brother and his family.

413
00:24:24.680 --> 00:24:26.240
Join that, but he's still able to do the monolog

414
00:24:26.240 --> 00:24:29.200
because technology is awesome. Dave is up in Phoenix this

415
00:24:29.240 --> 00:24:33.200
weekend enjoying his anniversary with Linda. They went to a concert.

416
00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:34.880
They're actually taking a day off of work for the

417
00:24:34.880 --> 00:24:37.519
first time. I think this year. Good for you, Dave.

418
00:24:38.240 --> 00:24:40.079
We had a lot happen this week. I mean, just

419
00:24:40.119 --> 00:24:42.079
to highlights this, GDP grew three percent dur in the

420
00:24:42.079 --> 00:24:45.160
second quarter. The jobs report was much lower than expected,

421
00:24:45.599 --> 00:24:49.839
and Trump called for the to fire the Labor Statistics Commissioner.

422
00:24:50.240 --> 00:24:51.680
FIGMA was a huge IPO.

423
00:24:51.839 --> 00:24:54.160
The tariff increase was announced on Friday, and it's going

424
00:24:54.160 --> 00:24:56.720
to go into effect on the seventh treasure eels dropped

425
00:24:56.759 --> 00:24:59.039
in response to that in the week's jobs reports, and

426
00:24:59.079 --> 00:25:03.240
then there's a shooting in Manhattan that was aim for

427
00:25:03.599 --> 00:25:05.400
the NFL. He went down the wrong one. He ended

428
00:25:05.440 --> 00:25:07.880
up actually killing a Blackstone execs. So now there's that

429
00:25:07.880 --> 00:25:10.279
whole conspiracy of was he supposed to kill that more

430
00:25:10.279 --> 00:25:12.119
with the NFL. I don't know it's all that, but

431
00:25:12.200 --> 00:25:15.160
it's unfortunate. It's very sad about what happened on Monday.

432
00:25:15.200 --> 00:25:17.880
So it's a busy week. Markets took a turn for

433
00:25:17.920 --> 00:25:20.920
the worst on Friday after the tariff news, and there's

434
00:25:21.039 --> 00:25:23.039
uncertainty about what's going on in the future. The markets

435
00:25:23.039 --> 00:25:25.759
hate uncertainty, and that's what we saw on Friday, and

436
00:25:25.799 --> 00:25:27.440
that's why for the week, the Dow was down two

437
00:25:27.440 --> 00:25:30.599
point nine percent, the SMP was down two point three percent,

438
00:25:30.640 --> 00:25:33.000
the Nasdaq was down two point two percent, the Rustle

439
00:25:33.039 --> 00:25:35.640
two thousand was down four percent, and the equal way

440
00:25:35.680 --> 00:25:37.759
to SMP was down three point three percent.

441
00:25:38.839 --> 00:25:41.160
Going into this week, though, we had a lot of

442
00:25:41.240 --> 00:25:44.759
momentum five straight days of making new all time highs

443
00:25:44.799 --> 00:25:48.279
that continued into Monday, making a six straight day, and

444
00:25:48.400 --> 00:25:50.319
everything looked good going into Tuesday.

445
00:25:50.319 --> 00:25:51.240
We have big.

446
00:25:51.039 --> 00:25:55.359
Earnings out of Microsoft and Meta. Both reported blockbuster earnings

447
00:25:55.359 --> 00:25:58.119
and propelled stocks even to even a new record high

448
00:25:58.359 --> 00:26:01.839
after having a sellout on Monday on the back end

449
00:26:01.920 --> 00:26:06.000
of that trading session. So everything looked good going into Wednesday,

450
00:26:06.359 --> 00:26:08.440
but we knew Apple was going to be an interesting

451
00:26:08.480 --> 00:26:11.960
earnings report with all the tariff concerns, but Amazon was

452
00:26:12.119 --> 00:26:15.160
expected to be decent. They came in decent, but the

453
00:26:15.240 --> 00:26:18.240
issue was they had softer than expected guidance that led

454
00:26:18.279 --> 00:26:21.400
to a selloff in that sector. Technology is what led

455
00:26:21.440 --> 00:26:24.039
this whole rally up to these all time highs, and

456
00:26:24.000 --> 00:26:26.240
it's what brought it down into the end of the week.

457
00:26:26.319 --> 00:26:28.119
When was it that Microsoft's Meta report it was a

458
00:26:28.160 --> 00:26:29.400
two zair Wednesday.

459
00:26:29.240 --> 00:26:30.599
I believe it was.

460
00:26:30.920 --> 00:26:32.480
It probably was Wednesday.

461
00:26:32.079 --> 00:26:35.000
Either way, after hours these both of these stocks, I

462
00:26:35.000 --> 00:26:37.640
think Microsoft was up ten percent and Metal was up

463
00:26:37.640 --> 00:26:40.000
eleven percent. And you're seeing the numbers on the week

464
00:26:40.000 --> 00:26:43.039
that dows down three percent, that qqq's down two and

465
00:26:43.079 --> 00:26:44.759
a half percent or two point two percent.

466
00:26:44.880 --> 00:26:46.519
Yeah, the S and P was up over a percent

467
00:26:47.160 --> 00:26:50.480
at intro week, but it sold off into the end

468
00:26:50.519 --> 00:26:52.960
of it because of what we had was a bad

469
00:26:53.000 --> 00:26:55.559
jobs report. Also, we didn't get a rate cut. We

470
00:26:55.599 --> 00:26:57.599
knew weren't going to get a rate cut, but there's

471
00:26:57.640 --> 00:26:59.920
still only about a fifty to fifty percent chance of

472
00:27:00.000 --> 00:27:02.000
whether we're going to get one or not. In September,

473
00:27:02.559 --> 00:27:05.240
Trump's been pounding on the table on pal to do so,

474
00:27:05.559 --> 00:27:08.440
but right now there's no expectations. But then we got

475
00:27:08.640 --> 00:27:11.920
a dismal jobs report on Friday, Trump saying, well, this

476
00:27:12.200 --> 00:27:14.960
proves to you that we should have cut rates, he said,

477
00:27:15.079 --> 00:27:17.240
and quote, he needs to go out and be put

478
00:27:17.240 --> 00:27:22.480
out into the pasture, so his job. And well, something

479
00:27:22.519 --> 00:27:24.960
also to note about that Federal Reserve meeting was there's

480
00:27:25.000 --> 00:27:28.680
two dissenting opinions. That's the first time that's happened since

481
00:27:28.680 --> 00:27:31.799
the nineties, over thirty years. And now if you look

482
00:27:31.839 --> 00:27:36.079
deeper into why those two members dissented, both were one

483
00:27:36.200 --> 00:27:38.599
was a Trump appointee, one was the leading candidate for

484
00:27:38.640 --> 00:27:40.400
being the next FED chair. So it made a little

485
00:27:40.400 --> 00:27:43.079
bit of sense on why they were on that side

486
00:27:43.119 --> 00:27:45.400
of the fence, But still a big thing that you

487
00:27:45.440 --> 00:27:49.039
had two governors dissenting against the overall opinion of not

488
00:27:49.240 --> 00:27:49.880
cutting rates.

489
00:27:49.920 --> 00:27:51.960
You have two governors dissent, and then on Friday you

490
00:27:52.000 --> 00:27:55.720
had a governor resigned. Adriana Kugler resigned on Friday, and

491
00:27:55.759 --> 00:27:58.319
she was supposed to have her term is up in

492
00:27:58.480 --> 00:28:00.640
January of twenty sixth, so it was coming, but she

493
00:28:00.720 --> 00:28:03.160
decided to resign now. She didn't give a specific reason

494
00:28:03.200 --> 00:28:05.640
in her letter, just says she wants to go back

495
00:28:05.680 --> 00:28:08.720
to being a professor at Georgetown. But it's still interesting

496
00:28:08.720 --> 00:28:12.839
in that after this seemed like a tumultuous FED meeting

497
00:28:13.039 --> 00:28:15.160
this past month, that she resigns early.

498
00:28:15.279 --> 00:28:18.119
Yeah, Normally meeting minutes are really boring, and it's.

499
00:28:18.160 --> 00:28:18.680
Gonna be interesting.

500
00:28:18.759 --> 00:28:20.359
Yeah, meeting minutes are where you actually get to see

501
00:28:20.400 --> 00:28:22.920
what was said in the in the board meeting and

502
00:28:23.200 --> 00:28:26.200
before they made the decision, where was everyone's opinions and

503
00:28:26.640 --> 00:28:28.880
this this is going to be one where you're gonna

504
00:28:28.880 --> 00:28:32.200
say who was really entrenched in their opinions and who

505
00:28:32.240 --> 00:28:34.559
was just kind of making a theater act behind it.

506
00:28:34.920 --> 00:28:37.400
Yeah, exactly, So it'll be I think those come out

507
00:28:37.400 --> 00:28:38.480
in a couple of weeks.

508
00:28:38.319 --> 00:28:41.160
Right, and usually it's a couple of weeks after the

509
00:28:41.599 --> 00:28:44.359
meeting happens. But yeah, going back to that jobs report,

510
00:28:44.599 --> 00:28:47.319
it came in lower than expect expectations, and then they

511
00:28:47.440 --> 00:28:50.960
revised it. Trump does not like these revisions. He's even

512
00:28:50.960 --> 00:28:54.960
talked about this going back to his election, and before

513
00:28:55.000 --> 00:28:58.480
November happened. There was a big revision in September that

514
00:28:58.720 --> 00:29:01.400
looked like there was a huge job growth that ended

515
00:29:01.480 --> 00:29:04.680
up there wasn't job growth. There was another huge revision

516
00:29:04.680 --> 00:29:07.440
that happened last month, and so he decided he's going

517
00:29:07.480 --> 00:29:11.559
to fire the head of the labor statistics and try

518
00:29:11.559 --> 00:29:14.039
to fix this whole system. It seems more of like

519
00:29:14.079 --> 00:29:16.440
a system problem than who's at the head of it.

520
00:29:16.880 --> 00:29:20.039
But what people don't know also about job support is

521
00:29:20.200 --> 00:29:23.640
they are always revising it because more data comes into

522
00:29:23.680 --> 00:29:26.119
them late, and so they get more and more accurate.

523
00:29:26.559 --> 00:29:28.960
The rolling three month average is much more accurate than

524
00:29:29.000 --> 00:29:31.839
the rolling one month, and then rolling one year is

525
00:29:32.000 --> 00:29:34.920
much much more accurate and gives you a realistic idea,

526
00:29:35.000 --> 00:29:37.480
but it is very slow to the picture. And with

527
00:29:37.599 --> 00:29:40.759
the entire economy relying on these statistics to make their

528
00:29:40.799 --> 00:29:44.920
trading happen and them constantly being revised, it is somewhat

529
00:29:44.960 --> 00:29:45.559
of a concern.

530
00:29:46.160 --> 00:29:48.160
Yeah, And I mean, you had jobs came in a

531
00:29:48.200 --> 00:29:50.319
seventy two thousand last month and it was expected at

532
00:29:50.319 --> 00:29:52.960
one hundred thousand. You revised the June in may Ones

533
00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:55.039
and they ended up being down two hundred and fifty

534
00:29:55.039 --> 00:29:57.960
eight thousand. So the big jump is what's scared investors

535
00:29:57.960 --> 00:30:01.839
as well. On Friday and then Trump's response too, I'm

536
00:30:01.839 --> 00:30:03.440
going to fire the head.

537
00:30:03.720 --> 00:30:05.599
And that was not all that Trump was in the

538
00:30:05.599 --> 00:30:06.079
news for that.

539
00:30:06.279 --> 00:30:07.480
There's a lot of stuff on Friday.

540
00:30:07.559 --> 00:30:09.839
Yeah, on Friday, he also said August first, this is

541
00:30:09.960 --> 00:30:12.599
my trade deadline, said that for a very long time,

542
00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:15.160
and it happened this time. He did not delay it.

543
00:30:15.799 --> 00:30:18.799
I believe he delayed part of Mexico's, but he still

544
00:30:18.839 --> 00:30:22.440
was pretty hard down on Mexico, on Brazil, on Switzerland,

545
00:30:22.519 --> 00:30:24.440
up to forty one percent for some of those countries.

546
00:30:24.640 --> 00:30:25.599
I was going to say, I think a lot of

547
00:30:25.599 --> 00:30:28.880
investors are probably projecting that he would delay that potentially.

548
00:30:28.880 --> 00:30:32.519
Well, yeah, so he delayed Mexico's a couple of days

549
00:30:32.519 --> 00:30:34.319
before August first because they were trying to make a deal.

550
00:30:34.319 --> 00:30:36.920
But these countries that aren't necessarily close to a deal

551
00:30:37.000 --> 00:30:39.240
is the ones that they slapped the higher tariffs on

552
00:30:39.319 --> 00:30:41.759
that are going to be in effect mid next week

553
00:30:41.799 --> 00:30:43.680
on the seventh, And I mean, you got something. It

554
00:30:43.720 --> 00:30:45.720
was if we're in a if the country is in

555
00:30:45.799 --> 00:30:49.079
a trade surplus, they have the higher reciprocal tariffs. If

556
00:30:49.079 --> 00:30:52.359
they're in a deficit, then the terrifts are going to

557
00:30:52.400 --> 00:30:53.960
be around ten to fifteen percent.

558
00:30:54.079 --> 00:30:56.039
Yeah, it looked like the floor was ten percent up

559
00:30:56.039 --> 00:30:57.480
to forty one percent.

560
00:30:57.200 --> 00:30:59.480
Correct for some and well and then it Brazil is

561
00:30:59.480 --> 00:31:00.000
fifty percent.

562
00:31:00.440 --> 00:31:02.960
Yeah, And it's very interesting. You know some countries like

563
00:31:03.000 --> 00:31:05.720
Switzerland who have a trade surplus because of some of

564
00:31:05.759 --> 00:31:10.480
the financialization that happens between US and Switzerland that there's

565
00:31:10.519 --> 00:31:12.920
reports that even if everyone in Switzerland bought a steak,

566
00:31:13.279 --> 00:31:15.640
bought a coke, and bought a Harley Davidson, they still

567
00:31:15.640 --> 00:31:18.079
couldn't close that deficit, you know. I mean it's just

568
00:31:18.119 --> 00:31:20.319
I mean the surplus that they have with the trade

569
00:31:20.359 --> 00:31:22.640
because of how things are set up. So there's bigger

570
00:31:22.680 --> 00:31:26.720
forces at bay between these interconnected countries. I mean, that's

571
00:31:27.039 --> 00:31:29.440
we talk about it all the time. There is a

572
00:31:29.440 --> 00:31:34.079
a really big demand for the dollar and that's what

573
00:31:34.160 --> 00:31:37.079
makes it the global reserve currency. But what we saw

574
00:31:37.200 --> 00:31:40.759
with rates is it plunged and so there was somewhat

575
00:31:40.759 --> 00:31:43.480
of a safe haven trade there.

576
00:31:44.000 --> 00:31:46.279
And on Friday, with what the US senior drop three.

577
00:31:46.440 --> 00:31:48.640
Point seven percent, we're at four point two now on

578
00:31:48.720 --> 00:31:50.920
the ten year. That's gonna help the third year Freddie

579
00:31:50.960 --> 00:31:53.240
Mac mortgage come down. It's still at six point seven two,

580
00:31:53.279 --> 00:31:56.279
but after that huge move on Friday, you would expect

581
00:31:56.279 --> 00:31:59.160
that next week you might get a twenty basis point

582
00:31:59.160 --> 00:32:02.039
cut in that and that number there, so you might

583
00:32:02.079 --> 00:32:04.240
have to datepan On later where we can talk a

584
00:32:04.279 --> 00:32:06.079
little bit about the real estate sector, because that's that

585
00:32:06.160 --> 00:32:08.920
sector is getting some steam behind it. I mean, we've

586
00:32:08.960 --> 00:32:12.119
known it's been getting hurt for months and months now,

587
00:32:12.720 --> 00:32:15.400
but it might be forming somewhat of a bottom. So

588
00:32:15.440 --> 00:32:17.359
we'll talk more about that later in the Show's.

589
00:32:17.319 --> 00:32:20.519
One thing with the week jobs report, the odds that

590
00:32:20.640 --> 00:32:22.759
a rate cut comes in September is now to seventy

591
00:32:22.759 --> 00:32:25.720
from forty percent, and some people think that it could

592
00:32:25.759 --> 00:32:28.359
even be fifty basis points, not just twenty five basis points.

593
00:32:28.440 --> 00:32:31.079
So the likelihood I've seen a ray cut in September

594
00:32:31.119 --> 00:32:31.920
is going up quite a bit.

595
00:32:32.880 --> 00:32:37.440
Yeah, the overall economy is still somewhat strong, but investors,

596
00:32:37.680 --> 00:32:39.920
we knew going into this earning season that the bar

597
00:32:40.039 --> 00:32:42.640
was super high. Last earning season, the bar was low.

598
00:32:42.920 --> 00:32:45.920
They exceeded that bar. We kept rallying. This time the

599
00:32:45.960 --> 00:32:49.359
bar was high. They met the bar, but the now

600
00:32:49.440 --> 00:32:52.000
subsequent bar that's going to be even higher that investors

601
00:32:52.039 --> 00:32:54.960
are going to expect. A lot of countries are companies

602
00:32:55.039 --> 00:32:57.160
across the border saying we don't think we're going to

603
00:32:57.240 --> 00:33:00.960
hit that bar, and so that future guidance, that disappointing

604
00:33:00.960 --> 00:33:04.680
guidance that came out of companies like Amazon was what

605
00:33:04.839 --> 00:33:06.720
led to some of this selloff. If we talk about

606
00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:10.680
Amazon stock drop seven percent after anotherwise solid quarter EPs,

607
00:33:10.799 --> 00:33:16.119
ernies per share, revenue beat, STRONGAWS resilience is strong across

608
00:33:16.119 --> 00:33:20.160
North of America. Quarter three operating proper guidance though landed

609
00:33:20.200 --> 00:33:24.359
way below expectations, and the culprit rising fulfillment costs and

610
00:33:24.440 --> 00:33:29.200
ongoing investments in same day delivery expansion. So for the

611
00:33:29.240 --> 00:33:31.759
most part, the Trump tariffs are what leading to some

612
00:33:31.799 --> 00:33:34.279
of this, and analysts fear that the higher import duties

613
00:33:34.319 --> 00:33:38.799
on goods flowing through Amazon's ecosystem could squeeze the retail margins.

614
00:33:39.319 --> 00:33:40.960
Yep, we can see that.

615
00:33:41.039 --> 00:33:43.920
And then so you had Apple, they had a decent quarter,

616
00:33:43.920 --> 00:33:45.960
and then they also had rebound in China, which has

617
00:33:46.000 --> 00:33:49.880
been struggling over the recent quarters. They were up ten

618
00:33:50.240 --> 00:33:53.519
million iPhones were sold in China during the second quarter.

619
00:33:53.559 --> 00:33:56.960
That's about an eighteen percent market share, only behind Huawei,

620
00:33:57.160 --> 00:34:00.759
which is the leader. Apple shares still drop sixteen percent

621
00:34:00.839 --> 00:34:03.799
year to date, but they're seeing strength in moving forward.

622
00:34:03.799 --> 00:34:06.720
There's a lot more popularity in the iPhone sixteen. Tim

623
00:34:06.759 --> 00:34:09.320
Cook was saying that a lot of people are turning

624
00:34:09.400 --> 00:34:10.760
in their old phones and getting the new ones a

625
00:34:10.760 --> 00:34:13.679
lot more than the previous generation the phones, So they're

626
00:34:13.760 --> 00:34:16.599
excited about the new generation with the AI capabilities. But

627
00:34:16.639 --> 00:34:20.440
Apple is still behind on the AI capabilities, and they're

628
00:34:20.440 --> 00:34:24.719
losing their top engineers to Meta, who's paying towards of

629
00:34:24.719 --> 00:34:28.880
three hundred million dollars to coach these people from Apple

630
00:34:28.960 --> 00:34:30.159
and Google everywhere just.

631
00:34:30.159 --> 00:34:32.360
As a signing bonus suit, not even as like their salary.

632
00:34:32.519 --> 00:34:34.679
There's some I think it was because they bought their company,

633
00:34:34.679 --> 00:34:37.320
but there's some people that Meta has now brought on

634
00:34:37.440 --> 00:34:40.159
that there's upwards of over a billion dollars in compensation

635
00:34:40.480 --> 00:34:43.760
crazy to lead their super intelligence.

636
00:34:45.199 --> 00:34:45.599
Sector.

637
00:34:46.000 --> 00:34:48.760
And because Apple is the phone, it's a physical product

638
00:34:48.880 --> 00:34:51.559
that brings us AI is going to be you know,

639
00:34:51.800 --> 00:34:54.239
embedded into physical products, the phone as being one of them.

640
00:34:54.599 --> 00:34:57.599
That's considered edge AI as a category. One of the

641
00:34:58.159 --> 00:35:00.719
names that have been hurt because of Apple not performing

642
00:35:00.760 --> 00:35:03.519
as well as Qualcom. Qualcomm is a company that's going

643
00:35:03.599 --> 00:35:07.400
to be a beneficiary of this h EDGAI build out

644
00:35:07.679 --> 00:35:12.480
into phones, into cars, into other technologies that we're all

645
00:35:12.480 --> 00:35:16.440
gonna use, TVs, all kinds of crazy stuff. So that

646
00:35:16.920 --> 00:35:19.920
build out was left out of the earning s report.

647
00:35:19.920 --> 00:35:22.559
You didn't hear any super cycle language, and so you

648
00:35:22.599 --> 00:35:24.639
really needed that. We're coming up on an enner break.

649
00:35:24.639 --> 00:35:27.239
But Apple is still dealing with tariffs. Thirty five percent

650
00:35:27.280 --> 00:35:31.559
tariff on Canada led to components like aluminum and chips ballooning.

651
00:35:31.880 --> 00:35:33.920
So at the end of the day, those margins are

652
00:35:33.960 --> 00:35:36.559
continuing to get squeezed until you start seeing some type

653
00:35:36.559 --> 00:35:41.159
of supercycle. That stock is going to be trying to

654
00:35:41.199 --> 00:35:43.840
just come back from its all time lows. So when

655
00:35:43.840 --> 00:35:46.199
we come back where you have a segment with Jonathan

656
00:35:46.280 --> 00:35:48.519
Sabilia and we'll talk a little bit about a state planning.

657
00:35:48.519 --> 00:35:49.440
Thank you for joining.

658
00:35:49.280 --> 00:35:52.480
Us, Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. We got

659
00:35:52.559 --> 00:35:55.519
Jonathan Sibilia on this segment. He's our state planner in

660
00:35:55.599 --> 00:35:58.519
house and he owns Edward Law firm. But first I

661
00:35:58.559 --> 00:36:00.480
want to mention we have a sem and are coming

662
00:36:00.559 --> 00:36:03.559
up on September twenty sixth, eleven thirty to two pm.

663
00:36:03.559 --> 00:36:05.159
Over at Lapaloma Country Club.

664
00:36:05.519 --> 00:36:07.360
We will be providing lunch and what we will be

665
00:36:07.400 --> 00:36:09.920
talking about is our financial planning process. We talk about

666
00:36:09.920 --> 00:36:11.679
it all the time on this radio show, and we

667
00:36:11.760 --> 00:36:14.519
want to set up this in person seminar to make

668
00:36:14.519 --> 00:36:17.800
it more interactive, to make it more question oriented. We

669
00:36:17.800 --> 00:36:20.199
were going to max it out at fifty people, and

670
00:36:20.400 --> 00:36:23.000
so just give us a call if you want to join,

671
00:36:23.360 --> 00:36:25.280
or give us shoot us an email. We will have

672
00:36:25.320 --> 00:36:26.880
it up on our website in the next week so

673
00:36:26.920 --> 00:36:28.960
you can sign up there through event bright. But what

674
00:36:29.039 --> 00:36:30.519
this is going to cover is going to cover everything

675
00:36:30.519 --> 00:36:32.000
that we do in the financial plan So if you're

676
00:36:32.039 --> 00:36:34.360
hesitant to set up a meeting but you've been thinking

677
00:36:34.360 --> 00:36:35.800
about it, but you don't know if you wanted to

678
00:36:35.800 --> 00:36:37.920
do the whole process that we talk about on the show,

679
00:36:38.440 --> 00:36:41.320
then this gives you a good highlight to what we

680
00:36:41.400 --> 00:36:43.880
do in detail. When you do set up the meeting

681
00:36:43.880 --> 00:36:46.199
and there's no strings attached, Come enjoy lunch, come talk

682
00:36:46.239 --> 00:36:47.960
to us, come ask us any questions that you have.

683
00:36:48.280 --> 00:36:49.880
We love doing it. And we got a lot of

684
00:36:50.920 --> 00:36:55.039
ideas with the financial plan. There's always making it more interactive,

685
00:36:55.079 --> 00:36:56.719
so it's a great time. This is going to be

686
00:36:56.719 --> 00:36:57.880
a new thing that we're going to try to do

687
00:36:57.880 --> 00:36:58.840
every single quarter.

688
00:36:58.719 --> 00:37:00.360
Right correct. This is going to be a one.

689
00:37:00.400 --> 00:37:02.480
So if you do miss this boat or you can't

690
00:37:02.480 --> 00:37:04.440
make it on the twenty six, then we're gonna do

691
00:37:04.440 --> 00:37:06.199
a next quarter, and we're gonna do the quarter after that,

692
00:37:06.480 --> 00:37:07.920
and if we start seeing that we need to do more,

693
00:37:07.920 --> 00:37:10.280
we'll do it every month. This is a quicker one,

694
00:37:10.320 --> 00:37:12.599
it's a lunchtime one, and it's something we think that

695
00:37:13.360 --> 00:37:14.960
could provide a lot of benefit because we see a

696
00:37:14.960 --> 00:37:17.199
lot of benefits from when we meet with people in

697
00:37:17.239 --> 00:37:18.840
the office doing.

698
00:37:18.599 --> 00:37:19.400
The financial plan.

699
00:37:20.440 --> 00:37:22.440
But before we go, U s a bashing, y'all always

700
00:37:22.440 --> 00:37:25.719
got to do your disclosures and disclaimer. This show is

701
00:37:25.719 --> 00:37:27.480
sponsored by the Green Brick Financial Group and you can

702
00:37:27.480 --> 00:37:30.360
listen on seven ninety Canistee or iHeartRadio. The show discusses

703
00:37:30.400 --> 00:37:33.239
different investments, products and strategies, and every product and strategy

704
00:37:33.280 --> 00:37:35.679
have some type of an inherent risk, and we strongly

705
00:37:35.760 --> 00:37:38.440
encourage our listeners to properly understand the risk to determine

706
00:37:38.440 --> 00:37:40.480
whether to buy, sell or hold. The show has been

707
00:37:40.480 --> 00:37:42.559
on air for over thirty years. A green Brick Financial

708
00:37:42.599 --> 00:37:45.199
Group is registered with the SEC visitor a website at

709
00:37:45.199 --> 00:37:46.360
green Brick Financial dot com.

710
00:37:46.360 --> 00:37:48.840
For some more information, you could always give us Always

711
00:37:48.840 --> 00:37:50.440
give us a call it five two zero five four

712
00:37:50.480 --> 00:37:52.199
four four nine zero nine. If you ever want a

713
00:37:52.280 --> 00:37:56.079
question answered on air, ask us there Jonathan Sabilia, our

714
00:37:56.239 --> 00:37:58.440
estate planner here in house. Welcome.

715
00:37:59.079 --> 00:38:00.760
Hey, how's it going Pretty good?

716
00:38:00.800 --> 00:38:02.000
Pretty good, It's going good.

717
00:38:02.000 --> 00:38:06.880
There's been some obviously a lot of new laws that

718
00:38:06.960 --> 00:38:09.639
have changed with the Big Beautiful Bill, So we want

719
00:38:09.639 --> 00:38:13.159
to talk a little bit about the Obviously, the easiest

720
00:38:13.199 --> 00:38:16.559
one is the estate limit that you're allowed to give

721
00:38:17.079 --> 00:38:19.280
has gone up. So what's that number now and what

722
00:38:19.320 --> 00:38:19.920
does it mean?

723
00:38:20.440 --> 00:38:24.519
So, uh, basically what's gonna end up happening now is

724
00:38:25.559 --> 00:38:29.559
the estate tax number was supposed to sunset at one

725
00:38:29.719 --> 00:38:32.960
one twenty twenty six. Now they just made it permanent.

726
00:38:33.079 --> 00:38:37.119
So initially, before twenty seventeen, it was five million dollars

727
00:38:37.159 --> 00:38:40.239
per person, so each person could exclude up to five

728
00:38:40.280 --> 00:38:43.360
million dollars from their estate without being subject to state tax.

729
00:38:43.840 --> 00:38:46.480
During the Trump administration, it got bumped up to about

730
00:38:46.480 --> 00:38:48.639
eleven million, and due to inflation it got up to

731
00:38:48.639 --> 00:38:52.880
about thirteen point nine. This new bill codified it permanently,

732
00:38:53.280 --> 00:38:56.360
so now everybody has about thirteen point nine, subject to

733
00:38:56.360 --> 00:38:59.840
go up to about fifteen million in twenty twenty six,

734
00:39:00.159 --> 00:39:02.719
and it'll increase due to inflation from there on out,

735
00:39:02.760 --> 00:39:05.800
but it will be permanent. So everybody, if you have

736
00:39:05.920 --> 00:39:08.880
less than thirty million dollars in your estate, you don't

737
00:39:08.920 --> 00:39:11.480
have to worry about getting subject to an estate tax.

738
00:39:11.760 --> 00:39:14.159
And I think that's important for people to note because

739
00:39:14.360 --> 00:39:17.239
sometimes you'll hear I can only give I think the

740
00:39:17.280 --> 00:39:19.880
limit right now is nineteen thousand before you don't have

741
00:39:19.880 --> 00:39:23.480
to report the gifting, and so people will think, I

742
00:39:23.519 --> 00:39:27.280
can't gift more than nineteen thousand without incurring taxes or

743
00:39:27.280 --> 00:39:31.159
they have to pay taxes. Explain why that's not the case.

744
00:39:32.039 --> 00:39:35.559
You can give away currently up to thirteen a little

745
00:39:35.599 --> 00:39:39.800
over thirteen million dollars all in one shot without incurring

746
00:39:40.159 --> 00:39:44.599
any sort of tax. We say nineteen thousand, because once

747
00:39:44.639 --> 00:39:46.800
you go over that nineteen thousand dollars mark, you should

748
00:39:46.800 --> 00:39:49.760
be filing what's called a Form seven O nine. Seven

749
00:39:49.800 --> 00:39:53.599
O nine is basically disclosure to the irs that says here,

750
00:39:53.639 --> 00:39:56.440
I gifted this amount, keep it for your records. It

751
00:39:56.960 --> 00:39:59.760
basically what happens, and the reason you do it is

752
00:39:59.840 --> 00:40:02.960
so so we can begin the statute statute of limitations,

753
00:40:03.000 --> 00:40:05.320
and then the irs is three years the challenge, and

754
00:40:05.360 --> 00:40:07.239
if they don't challenge within three years, then.

755
00:40:07.199 --> 00:40:07.920
The gift is good.

756
00:40:08.559 --> 00:40:13.000
Right, So if it is over nineteen thousand and believe

757
00:40:13.039 --> 00:40:14.679
it or not, and I've talked attorneys about this, that

758
00:40:14.719 --> 00:40:19.199
includes a lot of things, gifts for Christmas, Birthday gifts,

759
00:40:19.559 --> 00:40:22.960
cash gifts. If you give somebody for tuition but you

760
00:40:22.960 --> 00:40:26.239
don't pay the school directly, that's considered a gift as well.

761
00:40:26.599 --> 00:40:28.719
But if you want, I probably recommend paying the tuition

762
00:40:28.840 --> 00:40:33.679
directly because then that gets automatically excluded. But you're allowed

763
00:40:33.679 --> 00:40:36.719
to give nineteen thousand dollars per person. Now, if you've

764
00:40:36.719 --> 00:40:39.960
got two kids and you're married, it's thirty eight thousand

765
00:40:39.960 --> 00:40:42.800
dollars per spouse, So you can give one kid thirty

766
00:40:42.800 --> 00:40:44.760
eight and the other kid thirty eight without having the file

767
00:40:44.840 --> 00:40:45.679
that's seven or nine.

768
00:40:45.760 --> 00:40:47.679
So if you give one hundred thousand away in your

769
00:40:47.679 --> 00:40:51.000
single and you have nineteen thousand excluded, eighty one thousand

770
00:40:51.440 --> 00:40:54.039
is deducted. From that thirteen point nine that I'm allowed

771
00:40:54.039 --> 00:40:57.639
to give without incurring that estate taxically.

772
00:40:57.320 --> 00:41:00.679
But eighty one thousand dollars from thirteen million dollars. You're

773
00:41:00.679 --> 00:41:03.199
going to chip away quite slowly at that, but it's

774
00:41:03.239 --> 00:41:04.920
a great way of getting it out of your state.

775
00:41:05.239 --> 00:41:06.400
There are things that we can do.

776
00:41:06.480 --> 00:41:09.360
So if you're over that number, that fourteen million dollar number,

777
00:41:09.800 --> 00:41:12.400
what's I got a great idea? Well, it's not always

778
00:41:12.400 --> 00:41:14.480
a great idea, but one thing that you can do,

779
00:41:15.239 --> 00:41:18.360
it's just a technique, is by a life insurance policy

780
00:41:19.400 --> 00:41:22.440
eighteen thousand dollars per year, nineteen thousand dollars per year

781
00:41:22.440 --> 00:41:26.000
per kid for the premiums on that life insurance policy,

782
00:41:26.519 --> 00:41:28.480
and then you pass away. That money could be used

783
00:41:28.519 --> 00:41:30.119
to pay any sort of a state tax, or you

784
00:41:30.119 --> 00:41:32.480
could put inside of a trust and it's just extra

785
00:41:32.519 --> 00:41:36.239
money for the kids, and you're dwindling down your estate.

786
00:41:36.519 --> 00:41:38.320
That's part of that kind of Gerber life if you

787
00:41:38.360 --> 00:41:41.519
ever heard of them, the million dollar baby policies, where

788
00:41:41.559 --> 00:41:44.039
you start them when they're young, because insurance is most

789
00:41:44.079 --> 00:41:46.719
cheap on someone when they're young, so it can be

790
00:41:46.760 --> 00:41:50.440
a pseudo gifting account. And that kind of segues us

791
00:41:50.480 --> 00:41:52.719
into our other questions of we have a lot of

792
00:41:52.920 --> 00:41:55.519
clients who want to set up grandkids accounts or their

793
00:41:55.599 --> 00:41:59.280
kids with some type of education or even just legacy

794
00:41:59.280 --> 00:42:01.719
account that they can use in the future. So obviously

795
00:42:01.719 --> 00:42:03.719
some believe they need a trust to do so. Some

796
00:42:03.880 --> 00:42:06.159
just believe that they could do a UTMA five twenty nine.

797
00:42:06.599 --> 00:42:08.679
Some just do a joint account and put a TOD

798
00:42:08.760 --> 00:42:11.119
beneficiary on it. What are some of the pros and

799
00:42:11.199 --> 00:42:13.920
cons of doing it the various different ways, and what

800
00:42:13.920 --> 00:42:15.239
do you see.

801
00:42:14.920 --> 00:42:17.480
A five to twenty nine plan not always a bad idea.

802
00:42:17.840 --> 00:42:20.960
There's tax benefits, especially with the as long as the

803
00:42:20.960 --> 00:42:23.639
money's used for school purposes.

804
00:42:23.719 --> 00:42:26.000
Have you seen the new provisions that got enacted with

805
00:42:26.000 --> 00:42:28.599
the new bill? I have got within the five two nine,

806
00:42:28.639 --> 00:42:29.920
I think that you are able to use them through

807
00:42:30.199 --> 00:42:33.000
kindergarten through twelfth grade now as well, well you can,

808
00:42:33.119 --> 00:42:33.519
it's just.

809
00:42:33.519 --> 00:42:35.159
More money you've always been able to. Now you can

810
00:42:35.280 --> 00:42:37.199
use up to twenty thousand dollars for k through twelve

811
00:42:37.440 --> 00:42:38.679
and then there's more provisions that.

812
00:42:40.239 --> 00:42:43.800
You could use trade souls, certification, certification exams. It opened

813
00:42:43.800 --> 00:42:45.480
the door a little bit more to what we could

814
00:42:45.559 --> 00:42:46.159
use the money on.

815
00:42:46.559 --> 00:42:49.119
Very nice and that's something that I'll look more into.

816
00:42:49.159 --> 00:42:51.440
You know, I having five twenty nine plans aren't a

817
00:42:51.440 --> 00:42:53.840
big part of my field. I do have a lot

818
00:42:53.840 --> 00:42:56.599
of clients that do it. And when you generate large

819
00:42:56.639 --> 00:42:58.519
amounts of money into the five twenty nine plan, I

820
00:42:58.519 --> 00:43:00.400
tend to tell the client to go speak to the

821
00:43:00.440 --> 00:43:05.159
custodian because, hypothetically someone dies, how do we create some

822
00:43:05.199 --> 00:43:09.119
sort of beneficiary designation on there? And it's typically whoever

823
00:43:09.119 --> 00:43:11.559
the custodian is of that five twenty nine plan is,

824
00:43:12.119 --> 00:43:14.519
they'll give you the rules and how that type of

825
00:43:14.519 --> 00:43:15.199
thing is handled.

826
00:43:15.400 --> 00:43:17.320
So with the trust account versus a joint account and

827
00:43:17.360 --> 00:43:20.559
tod what what do you see? Is there pros and cons?

828
00:43:21.599 --> 00:43:23.679
Well, you know, if you have a trust account, it

829
00:43:24.000 --> 00:43:28.119
basically the big thing is how's that money being managed?

830
00:43:28.679 --> 00:43:28.880
Right?

831
00:43:29.039 --> 00:43:31.159
I don't care how it gets to the beneficiary. I

832
00:43:32.199 --> 00:43:34.639
typically cared. I don't want to sitting there in a

833
00:43:34.760 --> 00:43:38.519
point zero zero one percent bank account generating a collecting

834
00:43:38.559 --> 00:43:39.039
done right.

835
00:43:39.079 --> 00:43:41.719
Well, imagine both are being managed, but just in terms

836
00:43:41.760 --> 00:43:46.039
of that, as that actual transfer of assets, what are

837
00:43:46.079 --> 00:43:48.159
the differences between the two.

838
00:43:48.440 --> 00:43:51.639
Well, the difference so hypothetically did a custodian account and

839
00:43:51.679 --> 00:43:53.280
you have kids that are three or four years old,

840
00:43:53.320 --> 00:43:55.079
you set up a custodian account and then once they

841
00:43:55.079 --> 00:43:59.039
turn eighteen, the money goes directly to them. But the problem,

842
00:43:59.119 --> 00:44:00.840
and that's a form of a try trust, and the

843
00:44:00.920 --> 00:44:03.480
problem there is the kids get it at eighteen, then

844
00:44:03.519 --> 00:44:05.719
they can do whatever they want, whatever they want, so

845
00:44:05.960 --> 00:44:08.239
there's no stipulations on that. I mean, you can't set

846
00:44:08.280 --> 00:44:10.320
up an educational trust. I have a lot of many

847
00:44:10.360 --> 00:44:13.840
clients who do educational trusts. You fund it and you

848
00:44:13.880 --> 00:44:16.400
put stipulations inside the trust that says they can use

849
00:44:16.440 --> 00:44:22.079
it for paying a books, paying books, paying tuition, what

850
00:44:22.119 --> 00:44:25.840
have you, anything that's educational related that if they don't

851
00:44:25.840 --> 00:44:27.719
go to school. We could also put provisions in there

852
00:44:27.760 --> 00:44:30.840
that says, all right, well, you know maybe going to

853
00:44:30.880 --> 00:44:33.840
college or some sort of secondary school is not in

854
00:44:33.880 --> 00:44:37.199
the in the books. So what we can do is

855
00:44:37.199 --> 00:44:39.440
if you want to invest into a business, start a business,

856
00:44:39.760 --> 00:44:42.360
you know, within at a certain age range, you can

857
00:44:42.639 --> 00:44:45.159
take some of that money out and you know, apply

858
00:44:45.320 --> 00:44:46.760
to opening up a business.

859
00:44:46.840 --> 00:44:49.000
That's something that you do quite often is an incentive

860
00:44:49.039 --> 00:44:49.559
based trust.

861
00:44:49.639 --> 00:44:51.800
Incentive based That's exactly it.

862
00:44:53.039 --> 00:44:56.559
So what are one of the situations you would say, no,

863
00:44:56.679 --> 00:44:59.760
you don't need a trust. Just do a proper will,

864
00:45:00.119 --> 00:45:04.079
do your power of attorneys on health and financial and

865
00:45:04.119 --> 00:45:06.400
get make sure you get all your tod and beneficials

866
00:45:06.400 --> 00:45:07.159
on all your accounts.

867
00:45:07.239 --> 00:45:10.440
I have a lot of clients that they'll come in, Hey,

868
00:45:10.480 --> 00:45:13.760
I need a will, I need some powers of attorney,

869
00:45:14.119 --> 00:45:18.199
and I or do I need a trust? Sometimes and

870
00:45:18.440 --> 00:45:22.760
many times, you know, obviously each one costs more. Right,

871
00:45:23.119 --> 00:45:25.800
just the will and some powers of attorney, that's you know,

872
00:45:26.000 --> 00:45:29.400
my cheapest. Then you know, powers of attorney, will with

873
00:45:29.480 --> 00:45:32.239
beneficiary needs a little bit more expensive than a trust.

874
00:45:32.000 --> 00:45:33.079
Is a lot more expensive.

875
00:45:33.320 --> 00:45:37.400
Okay, if I have a client that has one kid

876
00:45:38.280 --> 00:45:41.400
and a married couple, kids much younger than you know,

877
00:45:42.239 --> 00:45:45.920
much younger obviously can to outlive the parents half the time,

878
00:45:45.960 --> 00:45:47.760
I just told them, let's just do some powers of attorney,

879
00:45:47.840 --> 00:45:52.239
a beneficiary deed, no will, and just put TODs on everything.

880
00:45:53.159 --> 00:45:55.519
Because the will is just basically there to be a

881
00:45:55.519 --> 00:45:58.159
safety net. But if you have one child, by operation

882
00:45:58.239 --> 00:46:01.920
of law, by statute there to handle anything any anyways.

883
00:46:02.199 --> 00:46:04.000
And if we're going to do a will, they're still

884
00:46:04.000 --> 00:46:07.039
going to go to probate. So in the probate process,

885
00:46:07.159 --> 00:46:10.000
is exactly the same as an informal process, not a

886
00:46:10.000 --> 00:46:12.360
formal process where they just file some documents with the

887
00:46:12.400 --> 00:46:15.280
county they get pointed personal representative. But that's only in

888
00:46:15.320 --> 00:46:19.239
the worst case scenario. Typically, if you have TODs on everything,

889
00:46:19.719 --> 00:46:21.920
if you have a beneficiary deed and you have your

890
00:46:21.960 --> 00:46:24.280
powers of attorney, your set and.

891
00:46:24.199 --> 00:46:26.119
So for those who don't know, beneficiary d is something

892
00:46:26.119 --> 00:46:28.000
you put on your house. You can file with your

893
00:46:28.599 --> 00:46:31.079
county assessor's office to get that as well as with

894
00:46:31.119 --> 00:46:33.519
the TOD it's a transfer on death, so you put

895
00:46:33.519 --> 00:46:36.599
that on a non retirement account, so you can actually

896
00:46:36.599 --> 00:46:38.480
add a beneficiary to those accounts.

897
00:46:38.480 --> 00:46:41.159
Correct, And then a POD is the same thing, but

898
00:46:41.199 --> 00:46:43.239
for a bank account. For whatever reason, they have different

899
00:46:43.280 --> 00:46:45.440
names for it, and that's payable on death. Same idea

900
00:46:45.440 --> 00:46:46.679
as a TOD though.

901
00:46:47.480 --> 00:46:50.119
Anything else that you think most people aren't taking advantage

902
00:46:50.119 --> 00:46:52.159
of right now coming up on the end of the

903
00:46:52.480 --> 00:46:53.039
segment here.

904
00:46:53.639 --> 00:46:55.760
Well, at the end of the day, it's always good

905
00:46:55.840 --> 00:46:58.840
idea to review your your estate plan, whether it's with

906
00:46:58.920 --> 00:47:00.719
a will, whether it's a trust, or if you have nothing,

907
00:47:00.960 --> 00:47:03.760
you need to at least sit down take a look

908
00:47:03.800 --> 00:47:06.679
at it because it's really important. There could be provisions there.

909
00:47:06.760 --> 00:47:09.280
He did not realize. There could be tax laws that change,

910
00:47:09.639 --> 00:47:13.760
there could be statutes that change here in Arizona that

911
00:47:13.960 --> 00:47:16.440
may affect how things are handled. So it's always a

912
00:47:16.480 --> 00:47:20.079
good idea sit down, maybe sit down with an attorney,

913
00:47:20.239 --> 00:47:23.159
review it, make sure and make sure everybody's taken care of,

914
00:47:23.639 --> 00:47:26.079
and so you can have a peace of mind moving forward.

915
00:47:26.159 --> 00:47:26.840
All right, thank you.

916
00:47:27.119 --> 00:47:28.800
Let's see on the other side of the break.

917
00:47:29.519 --> 00:47:31.679
Welcome back to the second hour, the Money Matter Show.

918
00:47:31.719 --> 00:47:33.960
I want to thank Jonathan Sabillia of Edward Law Firm

919
00:47:33.960 --> 00:47:36.000
coming on for the last segment of the last hour.

920
00:47:36.639 --> 00:47:39.039
He's our state attorney that we work with in our

921
00:47:39.199 --> 00:47:42.159
office here and he's great. It's great to work with

922
00:47:42.239 --> 00:47:44.960
an attorney who with our clients and just have everything

923
00:47:45.039 --> 00:47:48.119
kind of work together. He offers free consultation. So if

924
00:47:48.119 --> 00:47:50.760
you're interested in looking at your estate plan, your will,

925
00:47:50.840 --> 00:47:52.960
if you need to talk about anything like that, give

926
00:47:53.039 --> 00:47:55.159
us a call and we will give you his information,

927
00:47:55.280 --> 00:47:56.639
or send us an email and we will give you

928
00:47:56.679 --> 00:47:59.320
his contact information. For those of you just tuning in,

929
00:47:59.360 --> 00:48:01.519
the Dow is down almost three percent last week. The

930
00:48:01.599 --> 00:48:04.360
SMP was down two point three percent. The Nasdaq was

931
00:48:04.360 --> 00:48:06.840
down two point two percent, that Russell two thousand was

932
00:48:06.840 --> 00:48:09.480
down four percent, and the RSP was down three point

933
00:48:09.480 --> 00:48:11.679
three percent, So we came off all time highs. We

934
00:48:11.719 --> 00:48:15.039
had a strong week to begin with and ended down

935
00:48:15.199 --> 00:48:17.039
and it hard on Friday. We were down about one

936
00:48:17.079 --> 00:48:19.079
and a half percent on the SMP and that's all

937
00:48:19.119 --> 00:48:20.920
because of a lot of news with the tear US,

938
00:48:21.039 --> 00:48:26.480
with just foreign policy talk, with the jobs report coming

939
00:48:26.519 --> 00:48:29.519
in week, with the Fed keeping rates steady, its just

940
00:48:29.519 --> 00:48:31.440
saw a lot of uncertainty in the next couple of months,

941
00:48:31.440 --> 00:48:36.880
and investors don't like uncertainty, So we'll see what goes

942
00:48:36.920 --> 00:48:38.760
on in the next month. That it did come, the

943
00:48:38.800 --> 00:48:42.920
Fed opportunity to cut rates in September did jump from

944
00:48:42.920 --> 00:48:44.960
forty percent to seventy five percent, so we will see.

945
00:48:45.119 --> 00:48:46.639
But for those of you just tuning in, we talked

946
00:48:46.679 --> 00:48:47.719
about it last hour.

947
00:48:48.079 --> 00:48:52.840
We were holding a seminar Atlapoloma on September twenty sixth

948
00:48:52.880 --> 00:48:55.199
from eleven thirty to two pm. It's going to be

949
00:48:55.199 --> 00:48:57.320
a lunch. We're going to talk about our financial plan.

950
00:48:57.360 --> 00:48:59.599
It's going to be an interactive seminar. We're keeping it

951
00:48:59.639 --> 00:49:02.119
the fifty people max, so we can ask questions it's

952
00:49:02.480 --> 00:49:05.840
more interactive in the sense that we're going to show

953
00:49:05.840 --> 00:49:07.239
you what we do with our financial plan if you

954
00:49:07.280 --> 00:49:09.800
were to come in and meet, but it's less formal.

955
00:49:10.480 --> 00:49:12.119
If you were ever thinking you want to come in,

956
00:49:12.159 --> 00:49:14.280
but you don't want to go through the whole process

957
00:49:14.320 --> 00:49:17.079
just yet, you're skeptical, you're unsure. If you want to

958
00:49:17.079 --> 00:49:19.320
do the whole process, then come to this lunch and

959
00:49:19.360 --> 00:49:20.800
we'll show you what we do. We can ask answer

960
00:49:20.840 --> 00:49:22.719
any questions you have. You get a good lunch, and

961
00:49:22.760 --> 00:49:24.519
you get to meet us and talk to us about

962
00:49:24.679 --> 00:49:27.800
our process and our financial planning program that we've been

963
00:49:28.159 --> 00:49:30.280
seeing a lot of benefit from with our clients.

964
00:49:30.400 --> 00:49:30.800
Yeah, it's a.

965
00:49:30.800 --> 00:49:33.280
Great opportunity right now. It's also great opportunity to give

966
00:49:33.360 --> 00:49:35.360
us a call and five two zero five four four

967
00:49:35.400 --> 00:49:38.159
four nine zero nine get that financial planning meeting booked.

968
00:49:38.840 --> 00:49:41.480
During summer, we do have some more availability than we

969
00:49:41.519 --> 00:49:43.880
will going into the fall and winter time when the

970
00:49:43.880 --> 00:49:48.119
snowbirds start filling the city of Tucson back up. This week,

971
00:49:48.239 --> 00:49:50.920
we had gold up twenty four dollars to three three

972
00:49:50.960 --> 00:49:53.039
hundred and sixty dollars an ounce. Oil was up two

973
00:49:53.119 --> 00:49:56.079
dollars sixty seven dollars a barrel, and the ten year

974
00:49:56.199 --> 00:49:58.400
failed to four point two percent, the two years at

975
00:49:58.400 --> 00:50:00.880
three point seven, so we're doing good on all sides.

976
00:50:00.880 --> 00:50:01.119
There.

977
00:50:01.920 --> 00:50:04.639
Gold is that safe haven trade that we really saw

978
00:50:04.760 --> 00:50:07.679
pick up because of Also, we didn't talk about this yet.

979
00:50:07.960 --> 00:50:10.719
Kind of a big story. Trump decided to move two

980
00:50:10.840 --> 00:50:15.400
nuclear submarines into position, whatever position means. But that's all

981
00:50:15.519 --> 00:50:19.119
coming off of a social media dispute. I mean, it's

982
00:50:19.159 --> 00:50:22.840
funny that we have world leaders having disputes on social media.

983
00:50:22.880 --> 00:50:28.960
But the old president of Russia apparently was not happy

984
00:50:29.320 --> 00:50:33.639
with Trump's ultimatums, and he tweeted out saying, well, whatever

985
00:50:34.440 --> 00:50:37.119
whatever he whatever social media he was on that he

986
00:50:37.159 --> 00:50:40.880
did this, he was okay, so said that you don't

987
00:50:41.079 --> 00:50:44.920
you can't talk to us like this and don't forget

988
00:50:44.960 --> 00:50:49.119
that you're not that powerful. And basically, Trump, because of

989
00:50:49.159 --> 00:50:53.440
his comments, move these machine new submarines into position. And

990
00:50:53.480 --> 00:50:57.480
then the president, the old president of Russia, responded, well,

991
00:50:57.480 --> 00:51:00.400
if I can make you skittish this much, and maybe

992
00:51:00.400 --> 00:51:02.400
you're not as formidable as you think you are. So

993
00:51:02.440 --> 00:51:05.880
there's all this tension between Russia because Trump wants to

994
00:51:05.960 --> 00:51:08.119
rush a Ukraine war to end in the next two weeks.

995
00:51:08.119 --> 00:51:09.760
He said that on Monday, So I guess we're only

996
00:51:09.960 --> 00:51:11.320
gonna be one week away from that.

997
00:51:11.480 --> 00:51:13.519
So yeah, And that's what that old president was saying, saying,

998
00:51:13.599 --> 00:51:17.119
all these ultimatums that you're giving Russia, remember that we aren't,

999
00:51:17.159 --> 00:51:20.039
he said. He said, remember we're not Israel and not Iran,

1000
00:51:20.559 --> 00:51:24.159
and every ultimatum you give us is an act towards war. Yeah,

1001
00:51:24.280 --> 00:51:27.320
not between US and Ukraine, between US and the US.

1002
00:51:28.039 --> 00:51:29.880
What he was saying, we're recording this on Friday, so

1003
00:51:30.239 --> 00:51:32.360
we hope that no more news comes out on this

1004
00:51:32.440 --> 00:51:33.079
over the weekend.

1005
00:51:33.679 --> 00:51:35.719
Yeah, I mean, we don't think that's why the markets

1006
00:51:35.760 --> 00:51:38.239
sold off. There was a host of other reasons, obviously

1007
00:51:38.280 --> 00:51:41.159
because the jobs are poor at the terriffs, but obviously

1008
00:51:41.199 --> 00:51:43.679
just more uncertainty. And we saw that with the gold trade.

1009
00:51:43.760 --> 00:51:46.079
It picked up on Friday. It was really just flat

1010
00:51:46.159 --> 00:51:48.400
on the week, almost down, and then picked up good

1011
00:51:48.400 --> 00:51:50.679
on Friday. The thing that did not pick up, I

1012
00:51:50.679 --> 00:51:52.559
mean bitcoin, you're gonna call it a safe Hey have

1013
00:51:52.639 --> 00:51:55.119
an asset, it's an inflation hedge, it's a risk asset.

1014
00:51:55.239 --> 00:51:57.280
Who knows what it is. But right now it's down.

1015
00:51:57.320 --> 00:51:59.199
On the week, it was about five percent lower and

1016
00:51:59.239 --> 00:52:02.880
it's at one hundred thirteen thousand per bitcoin. It's had

1017
00:52:02.880 --> 00:52:06.039
a wild ride. Other cryptocurrencies have had also even more

1018
00:52:06.039 --> 00:52:09.639
wilder rides in the past two months, companies like Ripple,

1019
00:52:09.639 --> 00:52:12.599
who applied for a bank charter, which would be interesting.

1020
00:52:12.639 --> 00:52:17.079
We know stable coin like issuer Circle IPO last month

1021
00:52:17.119 --> 00:52:19.360
and that stock went crazy. But a lot of these

1022
00:52:19.440 --> 00:52:22.760
risk assets are trading lower, and they traded a big

1023
00:52:22.760 --> 00:52:26.119
time lower on Friday because of just even though you

1024
00:52:26.159 --> 00:52:27.880
have lower rates, you know, we were talking about it.

1025
00:52:27.920 --> 00:52:30.039
Lower rate's going to help small caps, but if you

1026
00:52:30.079 --> 00:52:32.079
have uncertainty, that doesn't help anyone.

1027
00:52:32.280 --> 00:52:32.519
Right.

1028
00:52:33.519 --> 00:52:35.280
What about copper this week, I mean that that was

1029
00:52:35.280 --> 00:52:36.519
a dramatic.

1030
00:52:36.159 --> 00:52:37.840
Talk about uncertainty there in that space.

1031
00:52:38.360 --> 00:52:40.800
Dramatic move in a commodity. You typically don't see these

1032
00:52:40.840 --> 00:52:44.599
types of moves within commodities. Copper fell twenty three percent

1033
00:52:44.760 --> 00:52:45.199
this week.

1034
00:52:45.280 --> 00:52:47.280
You don't typically see it because it was the biggest

1035
00:52:47.360 --> 00:52:49.159
drop ever in the history of copper.

1036
00:52:49.440 --> 00:52:50.079
That's amazing.

1037
00:52:50.840 --> 00:52:54.719
Trump slapped terrorists on copper imports and that dropped the

1038
00:52:54.800 --> 00:52:55.880
US copper prices.

1039
00:52:56.199 --> 00:52:59.039
So he had put the tariff on copper at fifty percent,

1040
00:52:59.119 --> 00:53:03.719
which sense copper prices skyrocketing. They increased dramatically overnights, and

1041
00:53:03.760 --> 00:53:05.920
then he comes out and says that they are going

1042
00:53:05.960 --> 00:53:08.840
to exclude refined copper, which makes up a majority of

1043
00:53:08.880 --> 00:53:14.039
the copper market. Upon that news tumbles twenty percent.

1044
00:53:15.559 --> 00:53:17.800
Yeah, I know, you know, I was coming back from

1045
00:53:17.920 --> 00:53:21.280
Lake Roosevelt this week and saw FCX, you know, Freeport,

1046
00:53:21.679 --> 00:53:24.599
and it's got We were looking at it. How much

1047
00:53:24.639 --> 00:53:30.679
do we domestically consume from domestic producers and these terroriffs.

1048
00:53:30.719 --> 00:53:33.679
We could see that there was some increase that it's

1049
00:53:33.679 --> 00:53:36.920
going to have for the domestic producers, but at the

1050
00:53:37.000 --> 00:53:38.559
end of the day, it doesn't warrant some of the

1051
00:53:39.119 --> 00:53:41.199
huge increases that you see in some of those stocks.

1052
00:53:41.239 --> 00:53:44.159
Everything was very lofty heading into this week. Everything had

1053
00:53:44.199 --> 00:53:46.599
to perform well. Not a lot of things did. But

1054
00:53:46.719 --> 00:53:48.880
if we can't take a moment moment and talk about

1055
00:53:48.880 --> 00:53:52.239
what did really really well was Microsoft and met a first.

1056
00:53:52.280 --> 00:53:55.599
Microsoft stock rows five percent on the back of their earnings,

1057
00:53:55.800 --> 00:53:58.519
and it's because they had a strong beat across the

1058
00:53:58.519 --> 00:54:03.760
board with earnings per shait, with revenue driven largely by

1059
00:54:03.760 --> 00:54:07.079
the relentless Azure growth and demand for Copilot. Those who

1060
00:54:07.079 --> 00:54:09.719
don't know Copilot is that new thing you're starting to

1061
00:54:09.719 --> 00:54:13.480
see on your Excel docs or or your word docs

1062
00:54:14.000 --> 00:54:17.840
or you know, your power points. It allows you, yeah,

1063
00:54:18.039 --> 00:54:20.639
in your outlook. So these are allows you to have

1064
00:54:20.679 --> 00:54:24.320
AI capabilities in the programs that they already have out there,

1065
00:54:24.440 --> 00:54:27.559
whereas a Zure is their kind of cloud based system.

1066
00:54:28.320 --> 00:54:31.599
Companies want to use AI, you know, they want to

1067
00:54:31.719 --> 00:54:34.159
use their own language models, but they don't have the

1068
00:54:34.199 --> 00:54:39.360
capacity to build them out, so they rent cloud space. Basically,

1069
00:54:39.440 --> 00:54:44.079
it's renting the capacity to use Microsoft's computers and that's

1070
00:54:44.159 --> 00:54:47.639
been growing very big for them as well. AAI infrastructure

1071
00:54:47.679 --> 00:54:51.920
dominance is why they are so much of a cat

1072
00:54:52.199 --> 00:54:54.719
had so much of a catalyst this week. The demand

1073
00:54:54.880 --> 00:54:58.360
still is outpacing in that cloud capacity, and investors took

1074
00:54:58.400 --> 00:55:02.519
this as a moat wide widening signal. At the end

1075
00:55:02.519 --> 00:55:05.679
of the day, they own a lot of open AI.

1076
00:55:06.159 --> 00:55:09.440
The you know, ten years down the road, will they

1077
00:55:09.480 --> 00:55:11.800
still be as powerful as open ai? Who knows, maybe

1078
00:55:11.800 --> 00:55:15.000
open a it becomes more valuable than Microsoft. And that's

1079
00:55:15.039 --> 00:55:18.800
the question is what is the actual independence that open

1080
00:55:18.840 --> 00:55:22.199
ai has because Microsoft has such a large investment, But

1081
00:55:23.119 --> 00:55:26.159
every time a new subscriber goes on the open AI,

1082
00:55:26.440 --> 00:55:29.320
Microsoft benefits and so even though they have a really

1083
00:55:29.360 --> 00:55:33.239
really high value is valuation right now they hit it

1084
00:55:33.280 --> 00:55:34.519
even new all time highs.

1085
00:55:34.559 --> 00:55:36.159
Well, think about how, you know, Beck, when we were

1086
00:55:36.199 --> 00:55:38.400
in school and you had a Microsoft Office, you ran

1087
00:55:38.559 --> 00:55:41.320
everything through Microsoft Office. All these colleges are going to

1088
00:55:41.400 --> 00:55:44.920
have software, you know, all these licenses and they're gonna

1089
00:55:44.920 --> 00:55:48.800
start implementing the AI agents or whatever artificial intelligence within

1090
00:55:48.840 --> 00:55:50.840
these platforms. That's going to be very beneficial.

1091
00:55:50.880 --> 00:55:52.679
And we talk about this all the time with the colleges.

1092
00:55:52.760 --> 00:55:54.639
It's a very big thing to get a kid young

1093
00:55:55.000 --> 00:55:57.920
because we were giving Chromebooks when you're in high school

1094
00:55:58.159 --> 00:56:02.039
and then you develop that way of using those tools.

1095
00:56:02.119 --> 00:56:04.039
I mean, some people eventually get an Apple, so they'll go

1096
00:56:04.039 --> 00:56:06.280
to Apple and all that. But I mean if you

1097
00:56:06.280 --> 00:56:09.519
you can get almost people, that's why Amazon gives deals

1098
00:56:09.519 --> 00:56:11.960
to college kids, right, you can get them young and

1099
00:56:11.960 --> 00:56:15.519
then they won't change the services that they use. And

1100
00:56:15.599 --> 00:56:18.480
so yeah, the some schools are moving away from Chrome.

1101
00:56:18.519 --> 00:56:21.639
We saw University of Arizona do that recently, and so

1102
00:56:21.679 --> 00:56:25.800
that's right. And so all these schools where they go

1103
00:56:26.039 --> 00:56:29.000
and how which which companies they partner with their AI

1104
00:56:29.079 --> 00:56:32.079
capabilities is going to be an interesting play out as well.

1105
00:56:32.719 --> 00:56:35.119
Meta was the other company doing really well this week,

1106
00:56:35.199 --> 00:56:38.079
and not to mention though, we should say Microsoft kind

1107
00:56:38.079 --> 00:56:39.559
of sold off into the end of the week. It's

1108
00:56:39.599 --> 00:56:41.960
still ended up positive as about one percent higher, but

1109
00:56:42.119 --> 00:56:43.880
gave up a lot of those gains. The company that

1110
00:56:43.920 --> 00:56:46.280
didn't really give up much gains was Meta. The stock

1111
00:56:46.360 --> 00:56:49.480
exploded higher twelve percent after earnings, and for good reason.

1112
00:56:49.559 --> 00:56:53.079
They crushed quarter to expectations and lit the fire. What

1113
00:56:53.119 --> 00:56:56.639
lit the fire was Zuckerberg's guidance on AI integration and monetization.

1114
00:56:56.719 --> 00:56:59.400
We know Zuckerberg has been on a spending spree acquiring

1115
00:56:59.440 --> 00:57:01.719
the top talent. Really been like a general manager of

1116
00:57:01.760 --> 00:57:04.519
an NFL squad, probably more so an NBA squad, just

1117
00:57:04.519 --> 00:57:08.079
paying absurd amount of money to get these people to

1118
00:57:08.079 --> 00:57:11.760
get them the best talent on his squad. The Threads

1119
00:57:12.199 --> 00:57:15.360
is a new kind of social media platform that Meta

1120
00:57:15.400 --> 00:57:17.920
is building out. I've never really used it, but apparently

1121
00:57:17.920 --> 00:57:20.599
it's growing traction and it's gonna be the competition to

1122
00:57:20.679 --> 00:57:21.599
what X is right now.

1123
00:57:21.760 --> 00:57:23.480
Yeah, it's actually getting in a lot of traction and

1124
00:57:23.920 --> 00:57:27.199
it's active daily users is catching up to X quite quickly.

1125
00:57:27.239 --> 00:57:27.920
Have you used it?

1126
00:57:28.039 --> 00:57:31.280
I haven't used it. I don't use so I just

1127
00:57:32.239 --> 00:57:32.400
used it.

1128
00:57:32.440 --> 00:57:34.440
And another part of Meta that's doing really well is

1129
00:57:34.440 --> 00:57:37.039
they're reels. It's chewing up into TikTok's ad time and

1130
00:57:37.079 --> 00:57:40.800
that's helping I mean, AI is helping Meta sell more ads.

1131
00:57:40.920 --> 00:57:43.360
And that's what analysts saw, it's what investors saw, and

1132
00:57:43.360 --> 00:57:45.719
they were like, Holy cow, this is this is big

1133
00:57:46.079 --> 00:57:50.519
because when you can make the the a the ad,

1134
00:57:51.079 --> 00:57:54.880
go after the consumer with better precision, and make sure

1135
00:57:54.880 --> 00:57:57.199
that the ad dollar is more cost efficient for the

1136
00:57:57.239 --> 00:57:59.159
business that's paying for it, you're gonna have more businesses

1137
00:57:59.199 --> 00:58:01.719
flocked to your place to advertise their product.

1138
00:58:01.800 --> 00:58:03.159
What's the Christmas gift of the year.

1139
00:58:04.079 --> 00:58:06.559
I still think it's the ray band metaglasses with you.

1140
00:58:06.599 --> 00:58:08.679
They're pretty cool. I used them the other day, did

1141
00:58:08.679 --> 00:58:10.639
you they actually yeah, I don't. I mean I don't

1142
00:58:10.639 --> 00:58:12.360
have the video and everything like that, but I had.

1143
00:58:12.440 --> 00:58:14.159
They played the music on it. It was pretty nice.

1144
00:58:14.239 --> 00:58:17.239
Yeah, it is pretty cool. Definitely gotta try those out.

1145
00:58:17.400 --> 00:58:19.559
Yeah, I mean if they stay out around three hundred dollars,

1146
00:58:19.559 --> 00:58:21.360
I was looking more deeply in it don't have great

1147
00:58:21.360 --> 00:58:24.599
battery life, I mean it's like four hours, and I

1148
00:58:24.639 --> 00:58:26.880
was gonna buy them for my trip to go into Germany.

1149
00:58:26.920 --> 00:58:29.280
But they don't have German language capabilities yet.

1150
00:58:29.280 --> 00:58:29.760
Do you use so?

1151
00:58:29.760 --> 00:58:31.000
I figured that was pretty pointless.

1152
00:58:31.039 --> 00:58:33.239
So do you think that they'll be able to use

1153
00:58:33.360 --> 00:58:36.159
or monetize the data that they get in through your eyewear?

1154
00:58:37.199 --> 00:58:38.960
Are they recording absolutely everything?

1155
00:58:39.880 --> 00:58:40.400
I don't.

1156
00:58:40.960 --> 00:58:42.679
The only problem I have is they would have to

1157
00:58:42.679 --> 00:58:46.079
have some type of server inside the glasses that uploads

1158
00:58:46.119 --> 00:58:47.119
that data to a cloud.

1159
00:58:47.559 --> 00:58:48.480
You don't think they have them.

1160
00:58:48.480 --> 00:58:50.000
Maybe they do, Maybe they do.

1161
00:58:50.039 --> 00:58:52.440
They're keeping it quiet, yeah, yeah, keep it on a

1162
00:58:52.639 --> 00:58:54.760
tech We have a big I PO last week which

1163
00:58:54.800 --> 00:58:57.159
is keeping consistent with the last couple. It was called

1164
00:58:57.199 --> 00:59:01.280
Figma and they're a software company. They were iPod at

1165
00:59:01.280 --> 00:59:04.000
thirty three dollars per share on Thursday, they began public

1166
00:59:04.039 --> 00:59:06.239
trading at eighty five dollars and end of the day

1167
00:59:06.320 --> 00:59:08.480
that day at one hundred and fifteen dollars a share.

1168
00:59:08.719 --> 00:59:11.320
The value is a company about sixty six billion dollars

1169
00:59:11.360 --> 00:59:15.320
at that point sixty eight billion dollars. And it's followed

1170
00:59:15.320 --> 00:59:19.199
in Chime Circle, COREWEF and a couple tech health companies

1171
00:59:19.239 --> 00:59:22.159
Hinge Health and Omata Health that all IPO this year

1172
00:59:22.480 --> 00:59:25.760
and they've all done well there is reminiscence of a

1173
00:59:25.760 --> 00:59:27.719
few years ago when an IPO happened and they just

1174
00:59:27.800 --> 00:59:31.400
double right away. A lot of attraction to these tech companies.

1175
00:59:31.559 --> 00:59:34.480
The interesting thing about Figma is at Adobe try to

1176
00:59:34.519 --> 00:59:37.039
buy them in twenty twenty two, try to buy it

1177
00:59:37.079 --> 00:59:39.360
for twenty billion dollars in the UK regulator shut it

1178
00:59:39.400 --> 00:59:41.360
down saying it's not fair and it's going to be

1179
00:59:41.599 --> 00:59:44.039
monopolized and everything like that. So they cut out the

1180
00:59:44.079 --> 00:59:47.920
deal and now Adobe's watching this happen. So they were right,

1181
00:59:48.000 --> 00:59:50.400
this good company, software data company.

1182
00:59:50.440 --> 00:59:52.400
It's like I was trying to figure out what it

1183
00:59:52.480 --> 00:59:54.920
was on through their website. It seems like an Adobe.

1184
00:59:55.039 --> 00:59:56.800
Yeah, so a web based software that allows people to

1185
00:59:56.800 --> 00:59:59.920
collaborate like drawing a blank Google Google Doc.

1186
01:00:00.159 --> 01:00:01.840
Yeah, Google Docs, and that's what they call. It's like

1187
01:00:01.880 --> 01:00:03.480
a Google Docs for coders.

1188
01:00:03.639 --> 01:00:03.880
Yeah.

1189
01:00:04.280 --> 01:00:07.280
Having companies and stuff. I mean you got Google, Microsoft, Netflix,

1190
01:00:07.320 --> 01:00:09.599
New for all customers. And there's companies that are expended

1191
01:00:09.639 --> 01:00:12.239
more than they got a thousand clients, or more than

1192
01:00:12.239 --> 01:00:14.239
a thousand clients that pay more than one hundred grand

1193
01:00:14.280 --> 01:00:14.599
a year.

1194
01:00:14.840 --> 01:00:15.960
But again use this product.

1195
01:00:16.079 --> 01:00:19.119
Adobe bought this company valued at twenty billion, that's what

1196
01:00:19.119 --> 01:00:20.360
they ipo'ed at three.

1197
01:00:20.239 --> 01:00:22.679
Years ago to so they're buying at a premium three

1198
01:00:22.719 --> 01:00:23.760
years right, they were trying to at.

1199
01:00:23.760 --> 01:00:26.599
Least and now because they didn't have the bill, they

1200
01:00:26.599 --> 01:00:28.679
didn't weren't able to buy them. They're trying to build

1201
01:00:28.679 --> 01:00:32.480
out their own fig like competitor, and that's kind of

1202
01:00:32.480 --> 01:00:35.320
why Adobe has fallen behind. They're not having that AI capability.

1203
01:00:35.480 --> 01:00:37.000
But yeah, I mean, if you're going to be bought

1204
01:00:37.000 --> 01:00:39.039
out for twenty billion a couple of years ago, maybe

1205
01:00:39.039 --> 01:00:42.119
you're valued at forty billion now. But this company got

1206
01:00:42.119 --> 01:00:46.559
to really high valuate valuations really quick, so triple we're

1207
01:00:46.599 --> 01:00:50.079
seeing right now. Yeah, the IPO market's very hot, maybe

1208
01:00:50.119 --> 01:00:52.679
for good reason. I mean, these names are very attractive

1209
01:00:52.960 --> 01:00:55.679
companies like Quarterweave. We just found out NA Video owns

1210
01:00:55.679 --> 01:00:59.039
I think sixty seven percent of their investment portfolio into Coreweave,

1211
01:00:59.079 --> 01:01:00.960
and you know, companies can have investment before it's just

1212
01:01:00.960 --> 01:01:03.760
like anyone else can. And they had some other names

1213
01:01:03.800 --> 01:01:05.800
that were very interesting too, like apl D.

1214
01:01:06.760 --> 01:01:08.760
Applied Digital is one that I've been taking a look

1215
01:01:08.800 --> 01:01:10.559
at because in Video has a stake in them, and

1216
01:01:10.599 --> 01:01:13.000
they just have they got a couple of contracts with

1217
01:01:13.079 --> 01:01:16.000
Core Weave, which again in Video, is a big shareholder

1218
01:01:16.039 --> 01:01:18.559
in and as more and more of these contracts are

1219
01:01:18.800 --> 01:01:21.519
you know, given to Applied Digital, if and Video still

1220
01:01:21.599 --> 01:01:24.159
remains a shareholder, that stock's going to catch a bid.

1221
01:01:24.559 --> 01:01:25.519
Right well.

1222
01:01:25.519 --> 01:01:27.679
We also saw again like I talked about, with Bigcoin

1223
01:01:27.760 --> 01:01:31.719
selling off, the entire crypto industry saw a little bit

1224
01:01:31.800 --> 01:01:32.280
of a hit.

1225
01:01:32.519 --> 01:01:35.360
I got something, did you get? Go ahead? Who's the

1226
01:01:35.440 --> 01:01:36.480
richest man in Arizona?

1227
01:01:37.360 --> 01:01:37.760
Garcia?

1228
01:01:37.880 --> 01:01:40.280
Ernie Garcia. Way to go, Carvana. That's a hot stock

1229
01:01:40.360 --> 01:01:41.320
this last year.

1230
01:01:41.360 --> 01:01:42.159
What's that trading right?

1231
01:01:42.159 --> 01:01:44.599
Obviously, hey, four hundred dollars a share. This week it's

1232
01:01:44.679 --> 01:01:46.760
back down about three hundred and seventy. But I think

1233
01:01:46.880 --> 01:01:49.519
last year is trading around four dollars a share, which is.

1234
01:01:49.519 --> 01:01:50.400
Just yeah, I mean yeah.

1235
01:01:50.440 --> 01:01:52.000
And then three years ago is trading at three eighty

1236
01:01:52.039 --> 01:01:54.199
a share. So it's been on a huge roller coaster.

1237
01:01:54.400 --> 01:01:58.400
The trailing pe or sorry Ford Pe seventy seven right now,

1238
01:01:58.800 --> 01:02:02.920
it's very very expensive stock, especially for an auto dealer.

1239
01:02:02.960 --> 01:02:05.199
And I was trying to figure out why it's priced

1240
01:02:05.239 --> 01:02:07.039
this way, and I think it's because it's not You

1241
01:02:07.079 --> 01:02:10.000
can't look at this company as just an auto dealer.

1242
01:02:10.039 --> 01:02:13.440
It's also a fintech company, financial technology company. The way

1243
01:02:13.440 --> 01:02:16.079
that they are making so much money and so it's

1244
01:02:16.159 --> 01:02:17.920
looking so good on their books because if you take

1245
01:02:17.920 --> 01:02:21.280
a look at Carvana's books compared to another traditional car dealer,

1246
01:02:21.559 --> 01:02:23.960
that car dealer is a dinosaur. And it's because of

1247
01:02:24.000 --> 01:02:26.400
the sheer volume that Carvana has been able to.

1248
01:02:27.880 --> 01:02:27.960
Do.

1249
01:02:28.280 --> 01:02:32.239
They're selling an absurd amount of cards each and every day.

1250
01:02:32.559 --> 01:02:34.719
And while the back end, you know, if you go

1251
01:02:34.760 --> 01:02:36.480
to a car dealer, you're not gonna make They don't

1252
01:02:36.480 --> 01:02:38.320
make their money on the sticker price. They make their

1253
01:02:38.320 --> 01:02:40.679
money on the financing end of it. On the back end,

1254
01:02:40.679 --> 01:02:42.480
they're going to sell you up on warranties and sell

1255
01:02:42.519 --> 01:02:45.360
you up give you higher rates. Well, Carvana is doing

1256
01:02:45.360 --> 01:02:49.039
the same thing, but it's a one price. They just

1257
01:02:49.079 --> 01:02:51.280
give you the price straight up front. It's up to

1258
01:02:51.280 --> 01:02:52.679
you if you want to take it or not. There's

1259
01:02:52.679 --> 01:02:56.679
no negotiation. Some consumers are starting to see that and say,

1260
01:02:56.719 --> 01:02:59.719
I'd rather use I'd rather buy and purchase a card

1261
01:02:59.719 --> 01:03:02.960
through that that way, rather than having go sit through,

1262
01:03:03.320 --> 01:03:04.880
you know, and negotiate with the salesman.

1263
01:03:05.079 --> 01:03:05.320
Yeah.

1264
01:03:05.519 --> 01:03:08.360
Yeah, And I think used car industry has been doing

1265
01:03:08.360 --> 01:03:10.159
really well lately too. At the high rates and everything,

1266
01:03:10.159 --> 01:03:11.199
people get cheaper cars.

1267
01:03:11.320 --> 01:03:12.639
I was gonna say it was kind of an interest

1268
01:03:12.719 --> 01:03:15.840
rate play this week to some extents, because as again,

1269
01:03:15.920 --> 01:03:19.559
if Carvana is gonna benefit off of again sheer volume,

1270
01:03:19.599 --> 01:03:22.679
and if interest rates keep coming down, I can only

1271
01:03:22.719 --> 01:03:23.760
see the volume increasing.

1272
01:03:23.840 --> 01:03:28.320
Gold do my combase report now, yeah? Sorry, okay, it

1273
01:03:28.440 --> 01:03:31.920
dropped twenty percent overall this week, but it dropped ten

1274
01:03:31.960 --> 01:03:33.960
percent on the back of the earnings. They gave soft

1275
01:03:34.000 --> 01:03:36.960
guidance for quarter three. A lot of invests. The analysts

1276
01:03:36.960 --> 01:03:41.119
thought that the staking the custody institutional use would lead

1277
01:03:41.239 --> 01:03:44.519
to more entrenchment in their volume and not be so

1278
01:03:44.639 --> 01:03:48.559
tied between bitcoin's price appreciation and declinent but that did

1279
01:03:48.559 --> 01:03:52.559
not happen. All those areas slowed and so when transaction

1280
01:03:52.679 --> 01:03:55.599
income comes down, that company is gonna come down. And

1281
01:03:55.880 --> 01:03:58.480
because of that soft guidance as well, they led twenty

1282
01:03:58.519 --> 01:04:00.760
percent down on the week. That's a very tough way

1283
01:04:00.800 --> 01:04:03.000
to invest in the crypto industry. I hear a lot

1284
01:04:03.000 --> 01:04:05.719
of people say, I want to take advantage of this

1285
01:04:05.800 --> 01:04:09.920
booming cryptocurrency space, let's invest in coin. I personally, I

1286
01:04:10.159 --> 01:04:12.760
don't love it. It's like if you're like saying I

1287
01:04:12.800 --> 01:04:14.920
love the stock market. Well, you can invest in the

1288
01:04:15.000 --> 01:04:19.360
Nasdaq exchange. That's that's out there. It doesn't keep up

1289
01:04:19.400 --> 01:04:24.079
with the NASDAK, right, so the thing that the exchange

1290
01:04:24.840 --> 01:04:26.920
allows you to buy is much more profitable than the

1291
01:04:26.960 --> 01:04:29.679
exchange itself. You can the New York stocks, It is

1292
01:04:29.719 --> 01:04:33.400
the same thing. So just because coinbase sells cryptocurrencies, NASDAK

1293
01:04:33.440 --> 01:04:36.320
sells stocks. You know, it's it's the same thing.

1294
01:04:36.360 --> 01:04:38.400
A one point coin Base seemed to be almost a

1295
01:04:38.400 --> 01:04:41.440
trading proxy to bitcoin, and that's not what it should be.

1296
01:04:41.559 --> 01:04:45.360
Right, And even micro strategy too, it's a it's something

1297
01:04:45.400 --> 01:04:48.079
that gets hit hard because it seems like a leverage play,

1298
01:04:48.320 --> 01:04:51.440
but it's it's not always moving one to one with bitcoin.

1299
01:04:51.920 --> 01:04:54.199
If you want a true leverage play, there's things out

1300
01:04:54.239 --> 01:04:57.280
there like bit you like bit x that can actually

1301
01:04:57.960 --> 01:05:00.639
aim to give you that two x exposure through options

1302
01:05:00.639 --> 01:05:04.239
and derivatives and things of that nature. But trying to

1303
01:05:04.360 --> 01:05:10.840
use these alternative plays on bitcoin don't always work in

1304
01:05:10.880 --> 01:05:13.039
the long run. They can work in the short run,

1305
01:05:13.079 --> 01:05:15.039
but in the long run it can be costly.

1306
01:05:15.079 --> 01:05:17.159
Well disclosure, we know that personally, we have invested in

1307
01:05:17.199 --> 01:05:19.280
those before and we help them a little too. Long

1308
01:05:19.880 --> 01:05:23.320
and we're learning that way. So from personal experience, a

1309
01:05:23.360 --> 01:05:23.679
lot of that.

1310
01:05:23.880 --> 01:05:27.119
Yeah, I mean I've made the most money just buying bitcoin,

1311
01:05:27.800 --> 01:05:30.639
just doing simple stuff, not trying to play the games

1312
01:05:30.679 --> 01:05:34.239
of doing all the crazy stuff, and sometimes having just

1313
01:05:34.280 --> 01:05:39.239
a disciplined investment philosophy, buying over time, not getting freaked

1314
01:05:39.239 --> 01:05:42.280
out with drops, not getting overly excited with gains, and

1315
01:05:42.360 --> 01:05:44.920
just staying discipline. That's the name of game of any investor.

1316
01:05:45.119 --> 01:05:47.840
Well, yeah, I mean it's investing is a long, long

1317
01:05:47.920 --> 01:05:50.920
term game. Trading is a quick term game, and that's

1318
01:05:50.920 --> 01:05:53.199
more short term oriented, and that's when you buy these

1319
01:05:53.440 --> 01:05:55.519
That's usually when you look to buy these leverage products

1320
01:05:55.519 --> 01:05:56.880
because you're going to get in and out of them.

1321
01:05:57.159 --> 01:05:59.119
You're not trying to hold something that's two times three

1322
01:05:59.159 --> 01:06:02.559
times leveraged for a long term. It's just not something

1323
01:06:02.559 --> 01:06:04.760
you're gonna do because there this whip saw too much.

1324
01:06:04.800 --> 01:06:06.960
So it's a trading mechanism that can be beneficial if

1325
01:06:06.960 --> 01:06:08.760
you know how to do it, but they are very

1326
01:06:08.880 --> 01:06:11.000
risky and if you're looking to get in the sector

1327
01:06:11.079 --> 01:06:13.840
like Todd you're saying, is the one times just buying

1328
01:06:13.840 --> 01:06:16.599
the actual putting the money into the actual asset is.

1329
01:06:16.519 --> 01:06:17.880
The way to do it for the long term.

1330
01:06:17.920 --> 01:06:20.360
If you want to mess around with short term, then

1331
01:06:20.480 --> 01:06:23.039
look to do leverage if you understand the risks that

1332
01:06:23.440 --> 01:06:24.079
come with it.

1333
01:06:24.639 --> 01:06:26.960
You know, there's one product that's doing even worse than

1334
01:06:27.119 --> 01:06:32.320
than Apple's Vision pros. It's the COVID RSV combo shot,

1335
01:06:32.519 --> 01:06:36.880
and there's the demand just doesn't seem to being there.

1336
01:06:36.920 --> 01:06:37.079
You know.

1337
01:06:37.119 --> 01:06:39.880
The Maderno came out with this thinking it was gonna

1338
01:06:39.920 --> 01:06:41.719
be something that everyone was gonna line up about the

1339
01:06:41.760 --> 01:06:45.039
door for, because why wouldn't you also want your RSV

1340
01:06:45.159 --> 01:06:48.320
with your COVID shot. Well, the weaker demand led to

1341
01:06:48.360 --> 01:06:50.639
the stock falling seven percent. Wait, if you throw some

1342
01:06:50.840 --> 01:06:53.079
glue tight in there or something that now we're talking,

1343
01:06:53.119 --> 01:06:55.840
if we just get one shot for everything, maybe we're good. Yeah,

1344
01:06:55.880 --> 01:06:58.599
the stock fell seven percent. They beat quarter two numbers,

1345
01:06:58.639 --> 01:07:01.079
but the RUG was pulling in their items, lowered its

1346
01:07:01.199 --> 01:07:04.639
entire four year twenty five revenue forecasts, and now it's

1347
01:07:04.679 --> 01:07:06.320
just very speculative the way it's priced.

1348
01:07:06.400 --> 01:07:08.679
Yeah, I mean, Trump is coming after these drug companies too.

1349
01:07:08.719 --> 01:07:11.360
He said he's given them sixty days to take steps

1350
01:07:11.400 --> 01:07:14.000
in cutting the US drug prices, to do the whole

1351
01:07:15.440 --> 01:07:19.000
most favored nation policy. He's trying to bring back where

1352
01:07:18.679 --> 01:07:23.480
you're making the US companies sell their drugs at the

1353
01:07:23.559 --> 01:07:26.280
cheapest cost another country would sell it at, so they're

1354
01:07:26.280 --> 01:07:28.239
trying to make it. They're trying to get these drug

1355
01:07:28.239 --> 01:07:32.320
costs way down, which is good for the consumer. It's

1356
01:07:33.079 --> 01:07:36.239
the pharma companies are obviously cut pushing back because it's

1357
01:07:36.239 --> 01:07:38.519
going to cut into their profit margin. They're saying they're

1358
01:07:38.559 --> 01:07:40.159
not going to have money to do their research. Is

1359
01:07:40.239 --> 01:07:43.599
highly it's very expensive to do the research, and a

1360
01:07:43.599 --> 01:07:45.719
lot of them fail, so they bank on making one

1361
01:07:45.760 --> 01:07:46.760
work and then they'll.

1362
01:07:46.920 --> 01:07:48.800
Cover the cost of the failures.

1363
01:07:49.039 --> 01:07:52.440
It's it is the pharma companies not wanting to give

1364
01:07:52.440 --> 01:07:54.119
it the margin, and the pharma companies have some of

1365
01:07:54.159 --> 01:07:57.239
the largest margins you'll see upheards a thirty percent.

1366
01:07:56.960 --> 01:07:59.480
But it's also because of all the tremendous amount of

1367
01:07:59.480 --> 01:08:01.880
money that they have to pour into R and D beforehand.

1368
01:08:01.920 --> 01:08:04.119
So like I kind of want to play Devil's advocate

1369
01:08:04.159 --> 01:08:06.159
and say, yeah, that's a good thing for the consumer

1370
01:08:06.320 --> 01:08:08.039
because of the lower prices, But at the end of

1371
01:08:08.079 --> 01:08:09.599
the day, is it good for innovation?

1372
01:08:10.320 --> 01:08:12.360
Well, and that's what the pharma companies and the critics

1373
01:08:12.400 --> 01:08:14.480
are saying it's not good for innovation because you're gonna

1374
01:08:14.480 --> 01:08:17.600
make them not have as much free cash to just

1375
01:08:18.119 --> 01:08:20.600
say screw it, we're gonna try this. We're gonna try that,

1376
01:08:20.680 --> 01:08:23.079
see what sticks, see what works. We have the ability

1377
01:08:23.119 --> 01:08:25.920
to have five fail if one works, because we'll make

1378
01:08:25.920 --> 01:08:28.399
the money on the working one. But you're not gonna

1379
01:08:28.439 --> 01:08:31.520
have that ability anymore. If that is the case overall,

1380
01:08:31.520 --> 01:08:33.439
and then they're gonna also there's also the critics are

1381
01:08:33.439 --> 01:08:37.479
saying that Pfizer, for example, will raise their prices in

1382
01:08:37.520 --> 01:08:40.479
the other countries to make it say okay, that's the

1383
01:08:40.520 --> 01:08:43.439
lowest price. Now we're gonna charge the US. It's all higher.

1384
01:08:43.800 --> 01:08:47.840
They're charging all higher everywhere. It's an interesting thing. I mean, overall,

1385
01:08:48.199 --> 01:08:50.399
it's probably for the better for a lot of the

1386
01:08:50.439 --> 01:08:52.600
people on Medicare and medicaid iss who they're aiming for,

1387
01:08:53.199 --> 01:08:55.239
and that'll help them a lot. And they're talking about

1388
01:08:55.279 --> 01:08:58.560
not being able to afford drug prices they're astronomical, and

1389
01:08:58.600 --> 01:09:00.880
then the government comes in and does it. Anyways, we're

1390
01:09:00.880 --> 01:09:04.119
talking last week about uh that what the EpiPen or

1391
01:09:04.159 --> 01:09:07.279
the insulin shot. Yeah, think the EpiPen where the guy

1392
01:09:07.279 --> 01:09:10.399
who invented it or monetized. It was making a ton

1393
01:09:10.399 --> 01:09:12.279
of money, and they came in and told them, Nah,

1394
01:09:12.279 --> 01:09:13.640
you can't do that, you're making too much.

1395
01:09:14.039 --> 01:09:15.000
Government always does that.

1396
01:09:15.319 --> 01:09:17.079
Yeah, well we saw that with Nova. We're seeing that

1397
01:09:17.079 --> 01:09:19.319
with the semi glut sides. They're going to force an

1398
01:09:19.479 --> 01:09:23.600
actual price minimum price because it's too good of a

1399
01:09:23.680 --> 01:09:25.000
drug for people not to have it.

1400
01:09:25.239 --> 01:09:25.399
You know.

1401
01:09:25.600 --> 01:09:27.560
Let's be real, though, healthcare companies, they spend a lot

1402
01:09:27.560 --> 01:09:28.800
of money on R and D, but at the end

1403
01:09:28.800 --> 01:09:31.039
of the day, they're raking in much more profits than

1404
01:09:31.039 --> 01:09:33.119
their R and D. Is you cut the prophiteed you percent?

1405
01:09:33.159 --> 01:09:34.520
There's so much more than what I said.

1406
01:09:34.520 --> 01:09:36.119
Their profit margins are like some of the highest. Yeah,

1407
01:09:36.199 --> 01:09:37.800
the industry. They're upwoards of thirty percent.

1408
01:09:37.800 --> 01:09:39.680
They'll be they made up five made one hundred billion

1409
01:09:39.720 --> 01:09:42.800
dollars on the COVID vaccine in like twenty twenty, twenty

1410
01:09:42.800 --> 01:09:45.000
twenty one. They're twenty twenty one and twenty two.

1411
01:09:46.039 --> 01:09:46.600
Yeah, I mean.

1412
01:09:46.520 --> 01:09:50.640
There's with that. You could say a lot of things.

1413
01:09:50.640 --> 01:09:53.800
But Novo got hit hard this week. I mean, I

1414
01:09:53.800 --> 01:09:56.000
think it was down over twenty five percent. It was

1415
01:09:56.000 --> 01:09:58.880
down twenty percent one day to seven percent the next day,

1416
01:09:58.960 --> 01:10:00.239
and I think it was another five percent on the

1417
01:10:00.359 --> 01:10:00.880
day after that.

1418
01:10:01.720 --> 01:10:04.119
Yeah, Novo got hit hard. Well, Novo first got hit

1419
01:10:04.159 --> 01:10:06.199
hard because of I think it was bad earnings, and

1420
01:10:06.239 --> 01:10:08.399
then the next day it came out Trump is coming

1421
01:10:08.439 --> 01:10:11.880
after these farmer companies, So it just got double whammy

1422
01:10:12.000 --> 01:10:12.439
right away.

1423
01:10:12.760 --> 01:10:16.439
Eli Lilly got hit hard. I mean, Healthcare actually bounced up,

1424
01:10:16.479 --> 01:10:19.560
and Novo had a good day, uh, somewhat on Friday,

1425
01:10:19.720 --> 01:10:22.439
Eli Lilly, every little Healthcare had a somewhat good day

1426
01:10:22.479 --> 01:10:24.159
on Friday. And you know what else had a good

1427
01:10:24.199 --> 01:10:27.119
day was the housing sector. A lot of that had

1428
01:10:27.119 --> 01:10:28.920
to do with rates coming down, and if you have

1429
01:10:29.000 --> 01:10:32.800
lower rates, maybe more buys are going to happen. But

1430
01:10:32.920 --> 01:10:36.039
right now there's still not a lot of volume happening

1431
01:10:36.039 --> 01:10:36.760
in new sales.

1432
01:10:36.920 --> 01:10:37.239
Just yet.

1433
01:10:37.279 --> 01:10:39.800
Another interest rates sensitive play that worked out this week

1434
01:10:39.920 --> 01:10:42.279
was First Solar. They also reported earnings on Friday, but

1435
01:10:42.319 --> 01:10:45.239
I believe that they finished the day up about seven percent.

1436
01:10:46.520 --> 01:10:48.439
As interest rates get lower.

1437
01:10:48.840 --> 01:10:51.079
For solar, it gets cheaper, it does, and that's because

1438
01:10:51.159 --> 01:10:53.960
a lot of people go and fund through loans with

1439
01:10:54.000 --> 01:10:57.000
the solar. Yeah, the report, Yeah, First Solo has had

1440
01:10:57.000 --> 01:10:58.359
a roller coach every year though.

1441
01:10:58.520 --> 01:11:01.399
Yeah, I mean the reddits they have credits, do they not? Oh,

1442
01:11:01.439 --> 01:11:03.600
they do because they're American, but everyone else doesn't.

1443
01:11:03.760 --> 01:11:03.960
Yeah.

1444
01:11:04.039 --> 01:11:05.279
Yeah, it's a tough one.

1445
01:11:05.159 --> 01:11:08.239
For that stocks, Doctor Bean. I will say back on

1446
01:11:08.239 --> 01:11:10.920
the stable coins, what did PayPal do this week? Well

1447
01:11:11.119 --> 01:11:13.119
that yeah, yeah, So if we'll.

1448
01:11:13.000 --> 01:11:15.159
Talk a little bit on on the other side of

1449
01:11:15.199 --> 01:11:18.319
the break because we're coming up on it. But yeah,

1450
01:11:18.359 --> 01:11:20.439
I mean there's a lot of technology. Dave always talks

1451
01:11:20.439 --> 01:11:24.079
about what is the actual technology, technology that's capable you

1452
01:11:24.079 --> 01:11:26.199
can do with stable coins that's relevant to Americans. Well,

1453
01:11:26.199 --> 01:11:27.920
we'll talk about it on the other side of the break.

1454
01:11:28.479 --> 01:11:31.239
Thank you for everyone listening to The Money Matters Show. Obviously,

1455
01:11:31.239 --> 01:11:32.880
please give us a call at five two zero five

1456
01:11:32.880 --> 01:11:34.600
four four four nine zero nine. If you ever have

1457
01:11:34.680 --> 01:11:36.439
questions you want to ask on this show, or if

1458
01:11:36.439 --> 01:11:38.600
you just want to set up that free financial planning meeting,

1459
01:11:38.760 --> 01:11:40.960
you can do it. Also sign up for that interactive

1460
01:11:41.000 --> 01:11:43.760
financial planning seminar. We're going to have it on September

1461
01:11:43.920 --> 01:11:45.920
twenty six at eleven thirty to two. You can go

1462
01:11:45.960 --> 01:11:48.399
to our website for more information. We'll have that up

1463
01:11:48.520 --> 01:11:52.079
on Monday morning. Thank you, We'll be right back. Welcome

1464
01:11:52.119 --> 01:11:54.119
back to the Money Matter show. My name is Todd Glick.

1465
01:11:54.159 --> 01:11:57.520
I'm here with Dylan Greenberg and Sebastian Bors. David Sherwood

1466
01:11:57.920 --> 01:12:00.239
is up north hanging out with his wife on is

1467
01:12:00.640 --> 01:12:01.960
much deserve anniversary.

1468
01:12:03.079 --> 01:12:03.640
Love the guy.

1469
01:12:03.680 --> 01:12:06.640
He's probably in his tesla going to a hike right now,

1470
01:12:07.159 --> 01:12:10.680
and the Dean is enjoying the much deserved vacation as well.

1471
01:12:10.720 --> 01:12:13.119
This month is the end of the month, so we

1472
01:12:13.119 --> 01:12:15.600
should do some monthly reports. The Dow was down one

1473
01:12:15.600 --> 01:12:17.479
point one percent, the S and P five hundred was

1474
01:12:17.520 --> 01:12:20.600
actually up fifty basis points, and the Nasdaq was up

1475
01:12:20.680 --> 01:12:23.880
one point four percent. But back to the negatives, the

1476
01:12:23.920 --> 01:12:27.000
small cap Russell two thousand was down forty basis points

1477
01:12:27.000 --> 01:12:28.760
and the equal weight it was down just a ten

1478
01:12:29.119 --> 01:12:31.520
basis point move. So obviously the S and P five

1479
01:12:31.560 --> 01:12:33.960
hundred did better, NASDAK did better. So we can see

1480
01:12:34.000 --> 01:12:36.960
that the moat was really the top seven. The magnificent

1481
01:12:36.960 --> 01:12:39.840
seven again was what led this stock higher in the

1482
01:12:39.880 --> 01:12:42.960
month of July, and that's why we hit new all

1483
01:12:43.000 --> 01:12:45.359
time highs. It's this AI rally we continue to hit

1484
01:12:45.399 --> 01:12:48.239
it and with that end of the month, we have

1485
01:12:48.359 --> 01:12:49.359
some down numbers too.

1486
01:12:49.680 --> 01:12:51.319
So looking at the down numbers, if you guys have

1487
01:12:51.319 --> 01:12:53.680
been following along throughout the year. You know that It's

1488
01:12:53.720 --> 01:12:56.039
in Video was once at the bottom of the list,

1489
01:12:56.199 --> 01:12:58.119
they are now at the top. They're up twenty eight

1490
01:12:58.119 --> 01:13:00.640
percent year to dates, which is pretty incredible. At the

1491
01:13:00.720 --> 01:13:02.560
very bottom. Could we take a wild guess.

1492
01:13:03.560 --> 01:13:08.199
Work Healthcare YEP, down.

1493
01:13:06.920 --> 01:13:09.560
Fifty on the year. Going back to the top, you

1494
01:13:09.600 --> 01:13:14.079
have Nvidia, Microsoft, Boeing, Goldman, Sacks, JP, Morgan, and Caterpillar.

1495
01:13:15.319 --> 01:13:17.840
IBM was a leader for quite some time, but they

1496
01:13:17.840 --> 01:13:19.840
actually got hit off of their earnings reports this week.

1497
01:13:19.960 --> 01:13:22.359
I think they dropped thirteen point one percent in the

1498
01:13:22.359 --> 01:13:22.960
month of July.

1499
01:13:23.760 --> 01:13:27.880
Interesting, Interesting and video Gangs seventeen percent in July. So

1500
01:13:27.960 --> 01:13:30.560
game most of it's year to date game just last month,

1501
01:13:31.199 --> 01:13:32.079
it's been taken off.

1502
01:13:32.159 --> 01:13:33.720
If we take a look at the well, just real

1503
01:13:33.800 --> 01:13:36.119
quick about United Healthcare. They did report it this week

1504
01:13:36.119 --> 01:13:38.600
as well, and they reported again that the medical care

1505
01:13:38.840 --> 01:13:41.039
is not looking good on the business side, let alone

1506
01:13:41.079 --> 01:13:43.319
with all the other issues they've had to go through,

1507
01:13:43.359 --> 01:13:46.039
but is not looking good on the on on the

1508
01:13:46.039 --> 01:13:48.800
business side as well. Healthcare as a whole. It's a

1509
01:13:48.840 --> 01:13:51.279
tough space to invest. And we've been talking about this

1510
01:13:51.399 --> 01:13:55.199
a lot that it's it's something that's who knows what

1511
01:13:55.359 --> 01:13:58.680
trials coming out, or the next regulation that hurts something,

1512
01:13:58.760 --> 01:14:01.199
and sometimes it's there's other spaces.

1513
01:14:01.199 --> 01:14:03.359
There's a lot of by the rumor, sell the news,

1514
01:14:03.880 --> 01:14:06.800
or in that case, if it's passes phase one, phase two,

1515
01:14:06.840 --> 01:14:09.760
phase three trials, that's you sell. It's hard to keep

1516
01:14:09.760 --> 01:14:12.359
those because it's just always gonna get hit with regulatory issues.

1517
01:14:12.479 --> 01:14:15.039
Or they have a great drug that makes it through

1518
01:14:15.079 --> 01:14:18.560
phase two trial easily and then failsa phase three and

1519
01:14:18.600 --> 01:14:20.399
then all of a sudden, they're just back to square one,

1520
01:14:20.439 --> 01:14:22.960
and it's it's a it's a tough industry to be

1521
01:14:23.000 --> 01:14:25.039
in that. Some companies do pay a decent dividend, like

1522
01:14:25.079 --> 01:14:27.079
Gillyad pays about a three and a half percent dividends,

1523
01:14:27.079 --> 01:14:28.760
so fiveser pays a dividend.

1524
01:14:28.800 --> 01:14:29.840
That's what those companies are.

1525
01:14:29.880 --> 01:14:32.039
But like we're talking about last segment, if they get

1526
01:14:32.079 --> 01:14:34.640
all their profit cut in half from these drug cup

1527
01:14:34.760 --> 01:14:37.760
prices going down, are they still going to pay that dividend?

1528
01:14:37.800 --> 01:14:38.239
You don't know.

1529
01:14:38.720 --> 01:14:41.560
I saw a pharma pharmaceutical company go up like six

1530
01:14:41.680 --> 01:14:44.039
hundred and fifty percent one of these days this week,

1531
01:14:44.279 --> 01:14:46.640
and the reason because of it was because they they

1532
01:14:47.000 --> 01:14:49.680
got past a phase two trial for a drug that

1533
01:14:49.800 --> 01:14:52.880
affects point zero zero zero two percent of people in

1534
01:14:52.880 --> 01:14:55.399
the United States of America up six hundred and fifty

1535
01:14:55.399 --> 01:14:56.319
percent or something like that.

1536
01:14:56.359 --> 01:14:58.439
What is that? What drug is at?

1537
01:14:58.560 --> 01:15:02.800
It doesn't matter. I was curious, so I couldn't tell you.

1538
01:15:02.880 --> 01:15:05.520
I just heard you talk about dividends too, cutting dividends,

1539
01:15:05.520 --> 01:15:07.600
you know, cut their dividend this world. We've been talking

1540
01:15:07.640 --> 01:15:09.800
about this for a while. They had to eventually do it.

1541
01:15:10.239 --> 01:15:11.399
I mean they had I think it was like a

1542
01:15:11.439 --> 01:15:13.800
twelve percent dividend, yeah, or something like that.

1543
01:15:14.000 --> 01:15:15.720
Cut it in half. Cut it in half, rightfully. So

1544
01:15:15.800 --> 01:15:17.479
they're not going to be able to keep that one up.

1545
01:15:17.560 --> 01:15:18.239
Let's go back to.

1546
01:15:18.279 --> 01:15:19.800
That huge dividend.

1547
01:15:20.000 --> 01:15:23.119
It was huge because the price have gotten beat up

1548
01:15:23.159 --> 01:15:24.600
so much. But going back to the S and P

1549
01:15:24.720 --> 01:15:27.880
sector's top performing sector. Could you guys take a guess?

1550
01:15:28.159 --> 01:15:29.000
No tech?

1551
01:15:29.079 --> 01:15:31.119
Okay, tech, no.

1552
01:15:31.520 --> 01:15:34.520
XLU, You're to date thirteen point five percent utilities.

1553
01:15:35.680 --> 01:15:36.199
Look at that.

1554
01:15:36.279 --> 01:15:38.319
The AI energy demands is real.

1555
01:15:38.359 --> 01:15:40.960
The one in second place is not technology either. Could

1556
01:15:40.960 --> 01:15:41.439
you guess it?

1557
01:15:41.920 --> 01:15:42.439
Second place?

1558
01:15:43.119 --> 01:15:43.239
Uh?

1559
01:15:43.760 --> 01:15:44.319
Communications?

1560
01:15:44.359 --> 01:15:44.479
Kay?

1561
01:15:44.560 --> 01:15:45.560
Yeah, it's communications.

1562
01:15:45.720 --> 01:15:50.399
No industrials thirteen point four percent more infrastructure you have

1563
01:15:50.600 --> 01:15:55.039
XLK at ten point four percent your dating then XLC Communications.

1564
01:15:55.239 --> 01:15:58.000
Dang that it's non sexy names at the top of

1565
01:15:58.039 --> 01:15:58.479
the list.

1566
01:15:58.920 --> 01:16:02.680
It's I think that we're just kind of thinking about

1567
01:16:02.760 --> 01:16:05.680
the text stocks in the last two months since the bottom,

1568
01:16:05.760 --> 01:16:08.319
you know, they've ripped up dramatically since that point.

1569
01:16:08.840 --> 01:16:10.960
Yeah, I mean, I think about it with the energy

1570
01:16:10.960 --> 01:16:13.880
I mean we saw it with the nuclear ETF. I mean,

1571
01:16:14.119 --> 01:16:17.479
things up over thirty percent in ETF. You're to date,

1572
01:16:17.960 --> 01:16:21.880
you know, let alone, that's a more diversified energy play.

1573
01:16:21.920 --> 01:16:25.000
With XLU up over ten percent as well, what's the

1574
01:16:25.039 --> 01:16:26.359
bottom performer on that list?

1575
01:16:26.880 --> 01:16:30.960
Healthcare probably dragged down a lot by United Health.

1576
01:16:32.399 --> 01:16:35.920
It's a tough space to invest in, for sure, and

1577
01:16:36.359 --> 01:16:37.479
it's only gonna get tougher.

1578
01:16:37.840 --> 01:16:38.000
You know.

1579
01:16:38.159 --> 01:16:41.720
RFK seems to really try to shape things, shake things

1580
01:16:41.800 --> 01:16:43.439
up in that space. I think it's a good thing,

1581
01:16:43.680 --> 01:16:46.680
but it's definitely gonna make it more challenging on analysts

1582
01:16:46.760 --> 01:16:49.199
or trying to figure out what valuation these companies are

1583
01:16:49.199 --> 01:16:53.239
gonna be worth. Fired the entire vaccine board, figuring out

1584
01:16:53.239 --> 01:16:55.520
whether we're gonna have red dye forty in our food

1585
01:16:55.560 --> 01:16:56.079
and things like that.

1586
01:16:56.159 --> 01:16:58.039
You oh, that's not gonna be red died forty. It's

1587
01:16:58.039 --> 01:16:59.159
gonna beat colored.

1588
01:16:59.159 --> 01:17:00.960
Right, That's what I'm saying. You know, that reminds me

1589
01:17:00.960 --> 01:17:03.439
of another company that's actually been gaining some traction. And

1590
01:17:03.479 --> 01:17:06.079
we talked about it the last couple of weeks as Hershey's, Uh,

1591
01:17:06.479 --> 01:17:09.640
consumer staples did really well on Friday. Normally do when

1592
01:17:09.680 --> 01:17:12.880
there's some type of uncertainty about the economy going forward.

1593
01:17:13.079 --> 01:17:14.720
The consumer stables are going to be the things that

1594
01:17:14.720 --> 01:17:17.720
we're going to buy no matter what. And apparently even

1595
01:17:17.760 --> 01:17:20.680
though Hershey's made their chocolate bars like fifty percent more

1596
01:17:21.119 --> 01:17:23.560
and probably Reeses and all the other hosts of portfolio

1597
01:17:23.600 --> 01:17:26.560
candy bars that they have, we didn't stop buying them.

1598
01:17:26.760 --> 01:17:29.319
Yeah, but they're coming out with an Oreo Reese's mix.

1599
01:17:29.760 --> 01:17:30.560
That's why they're doing well.

1600
01:17:30.640 --> 01:17:31.319
Yeah, so buy this.

1601
01:17:31.399 --> 01:17:32.960
That sounds pretty good.

1602
01:17:33.000 --> 01:17:34.760
I mean, if there's one reason to buy a stock,

1603
01:17:34.880 --> 01:17:36.640
an Orioles mix.

1604
01:17:37.199 --> 01:17:39.359
Might be gott to be the catalyst. You gotta buy it.

1605
01:17:40.319 --> 01:17:42.199
So let's go back to PayPal real quick, go for

1606
01:17:42.239 --> 01:17:44.680
a little bit about that. So Dave always asked, what

1607
01:17:44.840 --> 01:17:47.000
is stable coin? What are we going to be using

1608
01:17:47.000 --> 01:17:48.960
it for? And PayPal is going to be driving a

1609
01:17:48.960 --> 01:17:52.800
crypto payment system which is gonna essentially just reduce costs

1610
01:17:52.800 --> 01:17:56.159
and expand global commerce. Okay, businesses around the world world

1611
01:17:56.159 --> 01:17:59.239
lose billions dollars annually and cross border fees will navigating

1612
01:17:59.239 --> 01:18:02.279
a complex banking system to make and accept payments in today.

1613
01:18:02.760 --> 01:18:05.439
PayPal is going to simplify cross border commerce for merchants

1614
01:18:05.439 --> 01:18:09.079
by connecting unmatched combinations of cryptocurrencies, so they're going to

1615
01:18:09.119 --> 01:18:10.720
have their own stable coin and it's going to cut

1616
01:18:10.800 --> 01:18:12.720
costs by over ninety percent.

1617
01:18:12.960 --> 01:18:16.399
I mean, this is exactly the type of day you

1618
01:18:16.479 --> 01:18:19.760
might have to reiterate that for the listeners, because what

1619
01:18:19.800 --> 01:18:23.680
we're really trying to say is that JP Morgan themselves

1620
01:18:23.680 --> 01:18:26.159
are coming out. They're piloting their own program. I mean,

1621
01:18:26.159 --> 01:18:28.800
we're this is going to be how banks interact with

1622
01:18:28.840 --> 01:18:31.960
one another. Right now, it's a legacy system. It's archaic,

1623
01:18:32.079 --> 01:18:37.000
it's old. We used to have actual books. I mean

1624
01:18:37.039 --> 01:18:40.239
the term balancing books came from something there was actual

1625
01:18:40.359 --> 01:18:43.439
banks had physical ledgers. Now that ledger is going to

1626
01:18:43.520 --> 01:18:45.720
be it's still going to be centralized with the bank,

1627
01:18:45.760 --> 01:18:47.920
but it's going to be digitized and allowing it to

1628
01:18:47.920 --> 01:18:51.960
be transferred across borders. Seamlessly, at the speed of light,

1629
01:18:52.279 --> 01:18:54.920
at the fraction of the cost. That's what we're talking

1630
01:18:54.920 --> 01:18:58.319
about with technology. Money and money transfer isn't as simple

1631
01:18:58.319 --> 01:18:58.840
as people think.

1632
01:18:58.880 --> 01:18:59.159
It is.

1633
01:18:59.319 --> 01:19:00.920
A lot of people think and get simple, especially in

1634
01:19:00.960 --> 01:19:03.520
America because it is easy for us, but a lot

1635
01:19:03.560 --> 01:19:06.279
of people across the world it's not. That's the type

1636
01:19:06.279 --> 01:19:08.199
of thing that's revolutionary for money right now.

1637
01:19:08.520 --> 01:19:08.960
That's really big.

1638
01:19:09.680 --> 01:19:10.880
Yeah, it's a huge market.

1639
01:19:10.920 --> 01:19:12.800
That's a big one with XRP and why it's been

1640
01:19:12.840 --> 01:19:16.119
catching a big bid and people are getting excited about XRP,

1641
01:19:16.199 --> 01:19:18.319
which is owned by Ripple, because they're the ones that

1642
01:19:18.399 --> 01:19:21.119
have the ledger that you can go in between currencies

1643
01:19:21.439 --> 01:19:24.920
seamlessly quickly. It takes seconds rather than days as a

1644
01:19:24.920 --> 01:19:28.800
wire transfer or swift if you're going international.

1645
01:19:29.199 --> 01:19:31.319
And again it's going to reduce costs. But for these

1646
01:19:31.520 --> 01:19:33.680
people by ninety percent, it's incredible.

1647
01:19:34.119 --> 01:19:35.760
I mean, think about how many people are in this

1648
01:19:35.800 --> 01:19:38.640
country the loan that send money back to other countries.

1649
01:19:38.960 --> 01:19:40.560
I mean they had their use to do it through

1650
01:19:40.560 --> 01:19:43.800
the Western Union system or some other system that I'm

1651
01:19:43.840 --> 01:19:46.119
not privy to, but either way, it was a very

1652
01:19:46.159 --> 01:19:49.319
unsecured thing, especially when you know your loved one has

1653
01:19:49.359 --> 01:19:51.840
to go to some place where the cartel knows everyone's

1654
01:19:51.840 --> 01:19:52.600
getting their money from.

1655
01:19:52.680 --> 01:19:55.199
There's a quote from Alex Curris, president CEO of PayPal.

1656
01:19:55.279 --> 01:19:57.800
Imagine a shopper in Guatemala buying a special gift from

1657
01:19:57.800 --> 01:20:00.880
a merchant in Oklahoma City. Using PayPal Open platform, the

1658
01:20:00.880 --> 01:20:03.760
business can accept crypto for payments, increase the profit margins,

1659
01:20:03.760 --> 01:20:08.039
pay lower transaction fees, get near instant access to proceeds,

1660
01:20:08.079 --> 01:20:11.880
and grow funds stored at PYUSD, which is PayPal's stable

1661
01:20:11.920 --> 01:20:14.199
coin at four percent when held on PayPal.

1662
01:20:14.760 --> 01:20:16.880
And so what we're talking about with stable coins is

1663
01:20:16.920 --> 01:20:21.800
tokenizing dollars. Right, We're digitizing and tokenizing the asset that

1664
01:20:21.920 --> 01:20:24.680
is the dollar. What's gonna happen as well, is they're

1665
01:20:24.720 --> 01:20:26.159
going to tokenize securities.

1666
01:20:26.640 --> 01:20:26.800
Right.

1667
01:20:26.840 --> 01:20:29.239
They're used to have the physical stock certificate that you

1668
01:20:29.920 --> 01:20:31.600
get when you buy the stock. That's not really a

1669
01:20:31.640 --> 01:20:34.119
thing now. Now it's more of just data entry with

1670
01:20:34.239 --> 01:20:38.279
the brokerage firms understanding who owns what. Eventually, that's also

1671
01:20:38.359 --> 01:20:40.640
a very archaic system. They have to charge commissions, They

1672
01:20:40.680 --> 01:20:42.920
have to charge fees for doing this and upholding their

1673
01:20:42.920 --> 01:20:46.600
records instead. Imagine you have a tokenized system. You tokenize

1674
01:20:46.640 --> 01:20:50.199
every security in the stock market, right and eventually you

1675
01:20:50.239 --> 01:20:52.960
could tokenize probably even physical assets as well, like real

1676
01:20:53.119 --> 01:20:55.800
estate and things like this. This is something that Goldman

1677
01:20:55.880 --> 01:21:00.119
Sachs is looking into Morgan Stanley and the ability to say, hey, hey,

1678
01:21:00.159 --> 01:21:02.960
what if instead we're charging commission, we charge a small

1679
01:21:02.960 --> 01:21:06.399
transaction fee, and that transaction fee, even though small, will

1680
01:21:06.439 --> 01:21:09.239
probably end up being more money for there at the

1681
01:21:09.279 --> 01:21:11.560
bottom line at the end of the day. Also, some

1682
01:21:11.600 --> 01:21:13.960
of the privacy risks of that is potentially they have

1683
01:21:14.039 --> 01:21:17.399
more insight, they have more ability to confiscate if it

1684
01:21:17.439 --> 01:21:20.600
is digitized. There are some risks that come with it,

1685
01:21:20.680 --> 01:21:23.720
but also the benefits is we could have trades that

1686
01:21:23.760 --> 01:21:26.520
settle in one second. There's no T plus one, there's

1687
01:21:26.600 --> 01:21:30.239
not even a T plus one hour. It's you settle immediately.

1688
01:21:30.279 --> 01:21:33.479
Because everything's tokenized, there's no delivery system of any kind.

1689
01:21:33.560 --> 01:21:36.600
So again, instead of that paper stock certificate or brokeer's

1690
01:21:36.640 --> 01:21:38.399
account entry, like you were saying, you now have a

1691
01:21:38.439 --> 01:21:42.479
digital token that represents your ownership. Now explain that to

1692
01:21:42.520 --> 01:21:44.880
the listeners. What exactly does that mean, because this isn't

1693
01:21:44.960 --> 01:21:45.960
my share on mind?

1694
01:21:46.000 --> 01:21:48.319
Well, think about a mutual fund right. Think about a

1695
01:21:48.359 --> 01:21:50.239
mutual fund. When I buy a mutual fund and it

1696
01:21:50.239 --> 01:21:53.079
has ten different companies inside of it, I am buying

1697
01:21:53.119 --> 01:21:55.399
a share of the mutual fund that owns a share

1698
01:21:55.479 --> 01:22:00.720
of those ten companies. Right, it's a very similar aspect.

1699
01:22:01.399 --> 01:22:04.159
Yeah, it goes a lot into it, and we're definitely

1700
01:22:04.840 --> 01:22:06.840
moving that way. The world is moving that way.

1701
01:22:06.880 --> 01:22:08.399
Well, it's just a claim. I mean, think about what

1702
01:22:08.439 --> 01:22:10.520
gold is. I mean, if you hold if you gave

1703
01:22:10.520 --> 01:22:12.399
your gold to the bank and then they gave you

1704
01:22:12.439 --> 01:22:14.439
a receipt that says you can come claim your goal

1705
01:22:14.479 --> 01:22:16.199
to anyone time, that's just a paper claim.

1706
01:22:16.239 --> 01:22:19.199
Do we get to the point that we're tokenizing property exactly?

1707
01:22:19.239 --> 01:22:21.479
I think it is, and it's it will make all

1708
01:22:21.560 --> 01:22:24.359
the transaction fees that come along with those transactions cheaper.

1709
01:22:24.399 --> 01:22:27.399
Well imagine being you know that that would in theory

1710
01:22:27.479 --> 01:22:28.680
make your property liquid.

1711
01:22:28.760 --> 01:22:31.039
Why do I need a title company if everything's tokenized?

1712
01:22:31.079 --> 01:22:33.439
Oh my gosh, the title insurance is Oh.

1713
01:22:33.399 --> 01:22:34.239
They don't, they don't.

1714
01:22:34.279 --> 01:22:34.760
They don't want.

1715
01:22:35.159 --> 01:22:38.199
They don't want tokenized transactions because then you can audit everything,

1716
01:22:38.199 --> 01:22:41.359
you'll see everything be a lot cleaner. You don't have

1717
01:22:41.399 --> 01:22:44.199
to worry about wire transfers. I mean, you can completely

1718
01:22:44.239 --> 01:22:48.680
revolutionize the entire financial system, make it overall cost effective,

1719
01:22:49.000 --> 01:22:52.399
more cheaper for the end user, but obviously increase the

1720
01:22:52.439 --> 01:22:56.039
overall mote. So a lot of revolutionary things that we're

1721
01:22:56.039 --> 01:22:59.720
talking about here right now. Though narrative is everything, right,

1722
01:22:59.760 --> 01:23:02.119
I mean, and it's for the companies, it's not about

1723
01:23:02.159 --> 01:23:06.079
beating their earnings per share x expectations. They have to

1724
01:23:06.079 --> 01:23:07.960
talk about guidance. They have to talk about how well

1725
01:23:08.000 --> 01:23:10.439
they're going to do in the future. And one of

1726
01:23:10.439 --> 01:23:15.159
the companies I'm excited about how a tough weekgo is Marvel, Right,

1727
01:23:15.199 --> 01:23:18.039
Marvel's having these A six And we've talked about how

1728
01:23:18.279 --> 01:23:20.920
eventually the GPUs that we're all talking about with this

1729
01:23:20.960 --> 01:23:24.319
AI revolution, that's what it's on right now. Eventually it's

1730
01:23:24.359 --> 01:23:26.000
going to start to be a more fifty to fifty

1731
01:23:26.039 --> 01:23:29.039
split between A six and GPUs because A six are

1732
01:23:29.079 --> 01:23:32.039
more of just the straight up brains of inference, where

1733
01:23:32.079 --> 01:23:35.960
AI GPUs are more about how to actually get the

1734
01:23:36.000 --> 01:23:39.439
reasoning practical for the end users. So there's going to

1735
01:23:39.479 --> 01:23:41.800
be a lot of interesting mixes over time, and so

1736
01:23:41.880 --> 01:23:43.920
some of these companies that specialize in the A six

1737
01:23:44.039 --> 01:23:45.359
potentially could get a bit as well.

1738
01:23:46.600 --> 01:23:49.840
Yep, I like Marvel. I've been taking a look at Micron,

1739
01:23:49.960 --> 01:23:52.680
especially this week after they got pretty beat up.

1740
01:23:54.319 --> 01:23:56.439
Yeah, we'll talk more about Micron and Marvel and all

1741
01:23:56.479 --> 01:23:59.079
the crypto companies on the next side of the break.

1742
01:23:59.119 --> 01:23:59.960
We are coming up on a brain.

1743
01:24:00.119 --> 01:24:02.039
We want to thank you all out there for listening

1744
01:24:02.279 --> 01:24:04.479
to The Money Matter Show. That you would be talking

1745
01:24:04.520 --> 01:24:07.319
to nobody, so we really appreciate everybody out there that listens.

1746
01:24:07.359 --> 01:24:10.279
Every Sunday. We also have our Saturday shows all.

1747
01:24:10.199 --> 01:24:12.079
Throughout the day and we have our TV show Sunday

1748
01:24:12.079 --> 01:24:14.520
morning and Sunday night. And if you ever want to

1749
01:24:14.560 --> 01:24:16.520
give us a call, call us at our office. We'll

1750
01:24:16.560 --> 01:24:16.920
be back.

1751
01:24:17.000 --> 01:24:18.000
This is the Money Matter Show.

1752
01:24:18.279 --> 01:24:19.840
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

1753
01:24:19.840 --> 01:24:21.880
Sebastiana Bors the name here with Dylan Greenberg and Todd

1754
01:24:21.880 --> 01:24:23.960
Click Junior. I have a stock that we've been talking

1755
01:24:23.960 --> 01:24:26.279
about a little bit on The Greenberg Financial Show Money

1756
01:24:26.319 --> 01:24:29.920
Matter Show, and it's Generak. Todd talk a little bit

1757
01:24:29.920 --> 01:24:31.399
about Generak what they do this week.

1758
01:24:31.520 --> 01:24:32.520
They build generators.

1759
01:24:32.640 --> 01:24:37.159
Okay, but why have you been watching this stuck?

1760
01:24:37.319 --> 01:24:37.520
Well?

1761
01:24:37.560 --> 01:24:39.840
AI, right, it's all about the energy demand at the

1762
01:24:39.920 --> 01:24:41.680
end of the day and we know that when people

1763
01:24:41.720 --> 01:24:44.159
lose their power, where they going to use generators. Also,

1764
01:24:44.319 --> 01:24:46.119
if you're a data center, you're probably not going to

1765
01:24:46.159 --> 01:24:49.199
build this entire huge data center on one energy supply

1766
01:24:49.279 --> 01:24:51.479
unit and say well, if that goes out, what are

1767
01:24:51.479 --> 01:24:53.880
we gonna do? You're gonna buy some backup generators. So

1768
01:24:53.920 --> 01:24:55.359
every time you build a data center, what are you

1769
01:24:55.359 --> 01:24:58.119
gonna have a whole bunch of orders data for generators

1770
01:24:58.119 --> 01:25:01.239
behind that. GENERAK is one of the lead in America

1771
01:25:01.319 --> 01:25:04.319
for building these. The stock's gotten beaten up. I mean,

1772
01:25:04.319 --> 01:25:05.640
if you look at a chart of this thing, it

1773
01:25:05.720 --> 01:25:07.600
was up quite a bit higher than where it is

1774
01:25:07.680 --> 01:25:09.760
now a couple of years ago. But it seems to

1775
01:25:09.800 --> 01:25:13.319
be gaining some traction. We have other people analysts that

1776
01:25:13.439 --> 01:25:15.840
have really liked this stock in the long run, again

1777
01:25:16.000 --> 01:25:18.039
just because of the AI demand of energy.

1778
01:25:18.079 --> 01:25:20.800
Also highlight of the cause entry into the data centers. Yes,

1779
01:25:20.840 --> 01:25:23.560
and it made me pretty a lot more bullish into

1780
01:25:23.600 --> 01:25:25.720
again the uranium space than NLR.

1781
01:25:27.079 --> 01:25:29.640
Yeah, NLR, like we said earlier, it's been doing really

1782
01:25:29.640 --> 01:25:32.159
well this year. The nuclear space is the future for

1783
01:25:32.199 --> 01:25:34.760
how to provide energy to all these data centers. We're

1784
01:25:34.760 --> 01:25:36.520
making these huge data centers. I mean, Meta wants to

1785
01:25:36.520 --> 01:25:39.800
build a data center the size of Manhattan. It's insane

1786
01:25:39.800 --> 01:25:41.720
in these sizes, and they're going to need energy and

1787
01:25:41.800 --> 01:25:44.359
nuclear is the way. But there's these new nuclear companies

1788
01:25:44.399 --> 01:25:47.279
out there that have the ability to build a reactor

1789
01:25:47.840 --> 01:25:51.000
the size of a dump truck and have a power

1790
01:25:51.000 --> 01:25:55.039
and an entire facility. And that's Oaklow, who's part of NLR,

1791
01:25:55.239 --> 01:25:57.680
who's in itself is up about seventy eighty percent for

1792
01:25:57.760 --> 01:25:59.960
the year, and that's part of why NLR is up

1793
01:26:00.039 --> 01:26:03.199
thirty eight percent. As an ETF. You have multiple companies

1794
01:26:03.199 --> 01:26:04.479
in there and you're still at thirty eight percent for

1795
01:26:04.520 --> 01:26:06.600
the year. That means the sector as a whole is

1796
01:26:06.760 --> 01:26:07.600
doing very well.

1797
01:26:07.960 --> 01:26:11.520
And obviously, I mean, okhad SMR looking at it, it's

1798
01:26:11.640 --> 01:26:15.079
very specultive. I mean, they have no earnings, they lose money.

1799
01:26:15.199 --> 01:26:17.640
It's gonna be probably at least two three years before

1800
01:26:17.680 --> 01:26:21.119
they even have one of these things commercialized. But the

1801
01:26:21.199 --> 01:26:26.000
expectation of energy demand and the hype is real, really real.

1802
01:26:26.279 --> 01:26:27.159
That's what we're talking about.

1803
01:26:27.199 --> 01:26:31.039
We say, like Amazon, it's all about guidance, all about

1804
01:26:31.159 --> 01:26:33.000
what your what are you going to do in the future,

1805
01:26:33.199 --> 01:26:35.560
So the market does that's what the market cares about

1806
01:26:35.640 --> 01:26:37.680
I don't care about what happened, and they bring it

1807
01:26:37.720 --> 01:26:39.680
in a little bit. But like Amazon, they had great

1808
01:26:39.720 --> 01:26:42.239
earnings from the past quarter and their guidance sucks and

1809
01:26:42.319 --> 01:26:45.600
now it drops seven percent. You got all this good

1810
01:26:45.640 --> 01:26:47.840
news around nuclear, about all what's going to happen in

1811
01:26:47.880 --> 01:26:50.319
the next few years in nuclear, people want in.

1812
01:26:50.920 --> 01:26:53.000
And it's also magic though, right they don't have their

1813
01:26:53.000 --> 01:26:55.079
earnings per share, so they they don't have anything to

1814
01:26:55.439 --> 01:26:57.520
judge it off of. They're saying, oh, yeah, the future

1815
01:26:57.600 --> 01:27:00.640
is even brighter. Oh great, it warrants even higher value. Well,

1816
01:27:00.960 --> 01:27:04.439
at some point you're you're trading hype, right, and that

1817
01:27:04.520 --> 01:27:08.479
can be a speculative game. It's it's gone up quite significant.

1818
01:27:08.520 --> 01:27:10.720
I think it's over three hundred percent over the last year.

1819
01:27:10.720 --> 01:27:12.680
So yeah, probably not something that you want to be

1820
01:27:12.680 --> 01:27:15.880
getting your feet too wet into right now, but it's

1821
01:27:16.039 --> 01:27:18.239
likely going to trade off. I mean either very volatile,

1822
01:27:18.680 --> 01:27:21.760
very high beta stocks. High beta means it moves way

1823
01:27:21.800 --> 01:27:25.199
more than what the market moves, So you gotta be

1824
01:27:25.239 --> 01:27:27.760
careful going into these names. But other names that we

1825
01:27:27.800 --> 01:27:29.399
were talking about for a long time on the show,

1826
01:27:29.520 --> 01:27:32.399
VRT back to its all time highs. I mean, it

1827
01:27:32.520 --> 01:27:35.600
was down over sixty percent at one point in April,

1828
01:27:36.079 --> 01:27:38.359
and largely because in the video you talked about it

1829
01:27:38.359 --> 01:27:40.840
with your Dow Jones report, Sebastian, with the Dow being

1830
01:27:40.880 --> 01:27:42.199
at the I mean the video being at the bottom

1831
01:27:42.199 --> 01:27:44.319
of the doubt list now at the top. Well, VRT

1832
01:27:44.479 --> 01:27:47.600
did the same exact thing. Trades very in tandem with

1833
01:27:47.680 --> 01:27:51.840
the stock because VRT is the liquid cooling mechanism behind

1834
01:27:51.880 --> 01:27:55.840
the Blackwell chip. And another company that we mentioned well

1835
01:27:55.920 --> 01:27:58.800
I mentioned we researched this week about some thermal cooling

1836
01:27:59.079 --> 01:28:01.760
that got a really big been up over forty percent

1837
01:28:01.800 --> 01:28:05.359
this week was mod and then they have some thermal cooling.

1838
01:28:05.399 --> 01:28:07.479
So it's all about the cooling game. It's all about

1839
01:28:07.520 --> 01:28:10.760
the energy game right now, and it's largely also with

1840
01:28:10.800 --> 01:28:12.960
what you said the number two sector right now in

1841
01:28:13.000 --> 01:28:17.960
the SMP industrials, right it's infrastructure building out the infrastructure.

1842
01:28:18.279 --> 01:28:21.039
But after this, in my opinion, the play is going

1843
01:28:21.119 --> 01:28:24.359
to go away from these data centers, these cloud capacity

1844
01:28:24.399 --> 01:28:28.600
buildouts into the edge AI the consumer products that we

1845
01:28:28.680 --> 01:28:30.600
all are going to be using, and those are going

1846
01:28:30.680 --> 01:28:34.319
to be those wearable products or the cars or the TVs, thefrigerators,

1847
01:28:34.359 --> 01:28:36.800
whatever it may be. I mean, imagine when the refrigerator

1848
01:28:36.840 --> 01:28:39.720
sends you a note exactly what you need. You know,

1849
01:28:39.760 --> 01:28:41.439
you don't have to worry about or it orders it

1850
01:28:41.560 --> 01:28:44.119
or better. Yeah, you just you just come home and

1851
01:28:44.159 --> 01:28:45.720
you're like, I didn't know I need milk? Oh I

1852
01:28:45.760 --> 01:28:48.520
did you know? So there's a lot of cool things

1853
01:28:48.680 --> 01:28:51.600
that requires chips. Qualcom is going to be a beneficiary

1854
01:28:51.720 --> 01:28:54.680
of that, and then other companies as well.

1855
01:28:55.159 --> 01:28:57.880
Qualcom is big into the car space, right, Yeah, they

1856
01:28:57.880 --> 01:29:01.159
have a lot of a lot of those and obviously

1857
01:29:01.600 --> 01:29:03.720
more and more cars we're going to be implementing the

1858
01:29:03.800 --> 01:29:07.199
artificial intelligence into them. I mean, Tesla's just started their

1859
01:29:07.239 --> 01:29:09.880
grock They had a software update release and they now

1860
01:29:09.920 --> 01:29:12.039
have artificial intelligence. It's just to start.

1861
01:29:12.199 --> 01:29:15.279
And then companies like Palanteer and the Censure are going

1862
01:29:15.359 --> 01:29:19.159
to be the gap between the business and then the

1863
01:29:19.199 --> 01:29:22.000
AI capabilities. How do you make use of the AI

1864
01:29:22.079 --> 01:29:24.680
insights into your business. Pollenteer is going to be more

1865
01:29:25.039 --> 01:29:29.520
on the governmental side, helping governments doing their things, but

1866
01:29:29.560 --> 01:29:31.960
they also have some commercial applications as well of course,

1867
01:29:32.239 --> 01:29:34.880
but then the Censer is going to be more on

1868
01:29:34.920 --> 01:29:36.119
the business side as well.

1869
01:29:37.159 --> 01:29:39.640
We've got a lot of good things coming through technology

1870
01:29:39.680 --> 01:29:42.880
and AI, and this boom is just in the infancy stage,

1871
01:29:42.880 --> 01:29:43.560
it's just starting.

1872
01:29:43.640 --> 01:29:46.520
There's a lot of ways to invest in this AI revolution. Yeah,

1873
01:29:46.520 --> 01:29:48.680
I mean we're probably in the third inning right now,

1874
01:29:48.680 --> 01:29:50.640
and so if you want to take advantage we are

1875
01:29:50.680 --> 01:29:53.560
having a little bit of sell off. Eventually there's going

1876
01:29:53.640 --> 01:29:56.039
to be a good opportunity and that's what we're waiting for,

1877
01:29:56.199 --> 01:29:58.720
right so give us a call. We have many different

1878
01:29:58.720 --> 01:30:02.760
categories of this revolution to invest in, and one for you. Also,

1879
01:30:02.840 --> 01:30:06.439
we have structured product ets. We know we do annual

1880
01:30:06.479 --> 01:30:08.960
reviews with our current clients and we always say, if

1881
01:30:09.039 --> 01:30:11.199
there's part of you that thinks that you've made all

1882
01:30:11.239 --> 01:30:13.680
the money that you want right now, and you feel

1883
01:30:13.720 --> 01:30:15.760
like the market should drop at some point, you don't

1884
01:30:15.920 --> 01:30:18.359
feel comfortable keep taking some risk. We can move a

1885
01:30:18.399 --> 01:30:21.680
part of your accounting to the structured protected ETF that

1886
01:30:21.720 --> 01:30:24.399
will keep participating if the market with the market, if

1887
01:30:24.399 --> 01:30:26.760
it keeps going higher up into a cap. But if

1888
01:30:26.800 --> 01:30:29.640
it does drop, that portion of the portfolio is not

1889
01:30:29.640 --> 01:30:31.920
going to drop more than the expense ratio of the

1890
01:30:31.920 --> 01:30:34.840
fun So that allows us to have almost like a

1891
01:30:34.880 --> 01:30:37.920
fixed income alternative, have some type of protection sleeve in

1892
01:30:37.960 --> 01:30:38.960
the overall portfolio.

1893
01:30:39.039 --> 01:30:41.359
It can be very beneficial for your program. But like

1894
01:30:41.520 --> 01:30:42.720
we don't know your risk out there.

1895
01:30:42.720 --> 01:30:43.079
We're not.

1896
01:30:44.520 --> 01:30:47.319
Suggesting any buys of any stock or any company or

1897
01:30:47.359 --> 01:30:50.079
any ETF on this show. We're just talking about what

1898
01:30:50.119 --> 01:30:52.720
we've seen our clients use, what we found beneficial, and

1899
01:30:52.720 --> 01:30:55.640
what we've seen the market move into in the future.

1900
01:30:55.680 --> 01:30:57.239
But we obviously don't know your risk.

1901
01:30:57.520 --> 01:30:59.600
But if you want to know your risk, come in

1902
01:30:59.640 --> 01:31:02.279
meet with thus, get your risk tolerance, get your financial

1903
01:31:02.359 --> 01:31:02.760
plan done.

1904
01:31:02.800 --> 01:31:03.760
It's all free.

1905
01:31:03.800 --> 01:31:06.359
It's all just for us to sit there and help

1906
01:31:06.399 --> 01:31:08.640
you figure out where your financial situation is and are

1907
01:31:08.680 --> 01:31:09.680
you ready to retire or not?

1908
01:31:09.960 --> 01:31:14.079
And about that risk. We're talking about guarantees. We have

1909
01:31:14.199 --> 01:31:16.960
these annuities for maybe a more more month. If rates

1910
01:31:16.960 --> 01:31:19.960
are going down, correct, nudies are gonna get a lot worse.

1911
01:31:20.000 --> 01:31:25.359
People understand that rates are directly correlated with how good

1912
01:31:25.399 --> 01:31:29.079
that annuity product are gonna be in subsequent years. It

1913
01:31:29.119 --> 01:31:31.399
doesn't really matter once you have that contract locked in

1914
01:31:31.600 --> 01:31:34.039
because you have somewhat of a contract with the annuity company.

1915
01:31:34.239 --> 01:31:38.000
But if you're waiting to buy for something, higher rates

1916
01:31:38.039 --> 01:31:39.640
is a good thing for annuities lower rates are a

1917
01:31:39.640 --> 01:31:42.800
bad thing for annuities, and so they're gonna get the

1918
01:31:43.079 --> 01:31:45.119
products are gonna get worse next week. And if rates

1919
01:31:45.199 --> 01:31:47.079
keep going down, they're gonna get worse and worse compared

1920
01:31:47.239 --> 01:31:50.119
relative to where they are right now. So there's still

1921
01:31:50.119 --> 01:31:52.560
magas in the five percent range you can take advantage of.

1922
01:31:52.960 --> 01:31:54.640
We do bond ladders. I mean, we just talked to

1923
01:31:54.680 --> 01:31:57.560
a client who had a sizeable amount in just a

1924
01:31:57.640 --> 01:32:00.000
checking account. We can build a bond ladder for you.

1925
01:32:00.279 --> 01:32:00.439
Right.

1926
01:32:00.920 --> 01:32:04.119
We don't do all just investments in stocks. Right, we

1927
01:32:04.199 --> 01:32:07.079
can build a preservation of principal account that at least

1928
01:32:07.119 --> 01:32:09.399
you're taking advantage of interest rates and not letting the

1929
01:32:09.399 --> 01:32:10.359
bank take advantage of you.

1930
01:32:10.479 --> 01:32:10.680
Yeah.

1931
01:32:10.680 --> 01:32:13.039
We're an independent firm, so we can invest in anything

1932
01:32:13.039 --> 01:32:15.560
that we find to be beneficial. We're not stuck to

1933
01:32:15.600 --> 01:32:20.279
one product or one investment style. We are able to

1934
01:32:20.319 --> 01:32:22.920
do anything. We're just here to help in that sense,

1935
01:32:22.960 --> 01:32:25.439
and we're not a captive agent or anything like that.

1936
01:32:25.640 --> 01:32:27.560
You can do whatever we can to help. You can

1937
01:32:27.600 --> 01:32:30.079
do life insurance if it fits into your plan of

1938
01:32:30.119 --> 01:32:31.680
what you need. A lot of the time people don't

1939
01:32:31.680 --> 01:32:33.960
need life insurance because they don't have any more dependence

1940
01:32:34.039 --> 01:32:35.760
later on in life. They can either let it just

1941
01:32:36.119 --> 01:32:37.920
go away, or if you have a cash value life

1942
01:32:37.960 --> 01:32:40.760
insurance plan that could be helpful in your plan in

1943
01:32:40.760 --> 01:32:44.039
a different way than just a death benefit. Or if

1944
01:32:44.039 --> 01:32:45.960
you still have a dependent later on life and we

1945
01:32:46.000 --> 01:32:48.880
want to look at term life insurance, that's something to do.

1946
01:32:48.960 --> 01:32:52.199
But like I said, we don't know. We don't know

1947
01:32:52.239 --> 01:32:53.039
your situation.

1948
01:32:53.159 --> 01:32:56.159
Everybody's situation is unique, especially when it comes to finances.

1949
01:32:56.359 --> 01:32:58.680
So just come in and meet with us, or come

1950
01:32:58.720 --> 01:33:02.119
to our seminar on Friday, the twenty sixth of September

1951
01:33:02.439 --> 01:33:03.159
at Lapaaloma.

1952
01:33:03.399 --> 01:33:04.479
You can have all about it.

1953
01:33:05.159 --> 01:33:09.079
Yep, all right here in August. August is historically week

1954
01:33:09.119 --> 01:33:11.439
We love Dave because he talks about seasonality all the time,

1955
01:33:11.800 --> 01:33:17.079
and August apparently we're entering into nervous territory here, all right.

1956
01:33:17.159 --> 01:33:18.960
July is historically one of the better months. I think

1957
01:33:19.000 --> 01:33:21.720
it's the top three of the year, but August is

1958
01:33:21.720 --> 01:33:23.479
not one of the good ones. Then it starts to

1959
01:33:24.600 --> 01:33:28.960
potentially pick up after that. There's going into August with

1960
01:33:29.000 --> 01:33:32.319
this uncertainty. What are we thinking here? And we're gonna

1961
01:33:32.359 --> 01:33:34.640
have a little bit of a pullback through August or

1962
01:33:34.720 --> 01:33:37.119
is it gonna be bought right back up like all

1963
01:33:37.119 --> 01:33:39.039
the other dips have been thus far.

1964
01:33:39.159 --> 01:33:40.760
I personally think it's gonna get bought up. I think

1965
01:33:40.760 --> 01:33:42.199
we're gonna get more trade deals.

1966
01:33:43.159 --> 01:33:45.760
Yeah, I think we're aiming more towards the trade deals.

1967
01:33:46.479 --> 01:33:48.039
I think it's gonna see a little.

1968
01:33:47.880 --> 01:33:49.640
Drop, but we could see a five percent pullback would

1969
01:33:49.640 --> 01:33:51.119
be one thing, and then I think that could be

1970
01:33:51.199 --> 01:33:53.159
quick though, and then it could turn right back up.

1971
01:33:53.640 --> 01:33:55.960
Yeah, I'm similar. I think sixty one to fifty looks

1972
01:33:56.000 --> 01:33:58.439
like an interesting support level for the S and P.

1973
01:33:59.640 --> 01:34:02.840
If old stare should be able to bounce right back up.

1974
01:34:03.119 --> 01:34:05.960
Sixty four hundred the S and P got to yep.

1975
01:34:06.199 --> 01:34:08.000
I mean we were talking last week on the show.

1976
01:34:08.000 --> 01:34:10.680
Do we think seven thousand reality? At sixty four hundred,

1977
01:34:10.680 --> 01:34:15.479
it looked quite quite reality. I mean we're right there.

1978
01:34:16.159 --> 01:34:19.000
The S and P is up still six percent year today.

1979
01:34:19.319 --> 01:34:22.680
I mean we're about seven months in ten percent on average,

1980
01:34:22.760 --> 01:34:24.199
we're on pace for an average year.

1981
01:34:24.399 --> 01:34:24.600
Yeah.

1982
01:34:24.640 --> 01:34:27.560
Your thought is the terrorists actually went through. He kept

1983
01:34:27.600 --> 01:34:29.359
pushing him back. Now they actually went through. So maybe

1984
01:34:29.359 --> 01:34:32.319
countries say, Okay, he's actually gonna do it. Let's make

1985
01:34:32.359 --> 01:34:36.880
a deal. We're not playing that game anymore. And then September,

1986
01:34:36.880 --> 01:34:39.760
which is historically a down month, might not be so

1987
01:34:39.840 --> 01:34:42.920
bad this year if the FED does what people think. Yeah,

1988
01:34:43.000 --> 01:34:46.319
because that's still speculative. They haven't priced in a FED

1989
01:34:46.359 --> 01:34:48.640
cut in September yet, even though the odds are going

1990
01:34:48.760 --> 01:34:50.560
so maybe that gets priced in as they talk more

1991
01:34:50.560 --> 01:34:53.600
through August. Maybe that turns August good. We don't know,

1992
01:34:53.720 --> 01:34:55.720
but that could be something that could be a good

1993
01:34:55.720 --> 01:34:57.880
catalyst in September, which is historically a bad month.

1994
01:34:58.239 --> 01:35:01.640
Football preseason started on Thursday with the Hall of Fame game.

1995
01:35:01.680 --> 01:35:05.239
Gets really going this Thursday. God, we got some football.

1996
01:35:05.399 --> 01:35:07.439
You guys are back with the coaching of the Tucson

1997
01:35:07.520 --> 01:35:09.359
High Badger. You guys excited for the season.

1998
01:35:09.439 --> 01:35:13.000
Oh yeah, We start full going tomorrow, six days a week,

1999
01:35:13.039 --> 01:35:14.199
getting our preseason ready.

2000
01:35:14.239 --> 01:35:15.840
You guys got a tough schedule this year, but it's

2001
01:35:15.840 --> 01:35:16.600
gonna be a fun one.

2002
01:35:16.640 --> 01:35:18.680
If we have the by power Pots or whatever it is.

2003
01:35:18.680 --> 01:35:22.319
We have the toughest schedule, toughest schedule, play a lot

2004
01:35:22.319 --> 01:35:24.079
of good teams this year. You gotta go to Phoenix

2005
01:35:24.119 --> 01:35:24.720
a few times too.

2006
01:35:24.840 --> 01:35:27.239
Remember you can always watch us on our YouTube show.

2007
01:35:27.680 --> 01:35:31.199
We also do those weekly market updates on Facebook. We

2008
01:35:31.279 --> 01:35:35.279
also are on the TV KVOA Sunday morning. You can

2009
01:35:35.359 --> 01:35:37.640
check us out Sunday night after the ten o'clock news.

2010
01:35:38.399 --> 01:35:40.600
Anytime you have questions for us, give us a call.

2011
01:35:40.640 --> 01:35:42.800
We're here to help you. At the end of the

2012
01:35:42.880 --> 01:35:44.640
day five to two zero five to oh five for

2013
01:35:44.720 --> 01:35:45.960
four four nine zero nine.

2014
01:35:46.119 --> 01:35:48.760
There you go. That's it. It's been another great show.

2015
01:35:48.840 --> 01:35:52.279
Thank you everybody for tuning in. We really appreciate it.

2016
01:35:52.560 --> 01:35:55.399
Call us with anything, email us with anything, any questions,

2017
01:35:55.640 --> 01:35:56.800
we'd be happy to help.

2018
01:35:57.479 --> 01:36:00.880
And with that, let's keep it. Let's be happy. Almost

2019
01:36:00.880 --> 01:36:01.359
messed it up.

2020
01:36:01.560 --> 01:36:04.640
Let's be happy, Let's be healthy, but most of all,

2021
01:36:04.760 --> 01:36:06.239
let's be profitable.