Markets are Soaring Halfway Through the Year – Will it Continue?

1 00:00:04,879 --> 00:00:09,519 Good morning, Tucson. It's Sunday. It's July second. I'm Dave Sherwood. 2 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,519 I'm here with Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg. You know, 3 00:00:12,599 --> 00:00:17,079 last Monday, guys, we celebrated the thirty third anniversary of the hottest 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,280 day in the history of Tucson. Oh wow, I need to know what 5 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,480 the number. It was one hundred and seventeen degrees. But I wasn't here 6 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:28,719 because I had a previous appointment in Phoenix where it was one hundred and twenty 7 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,640 three degrees. Oh wow, So one hundred and seventeen to We made a 8 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,960 good run out of this past Monday. We were one hundred and eleven. 9 00:00:34,079 --> 00:00:36,799 It's a good show. Good show, but it wasn't one hundred and seventeen. 10 00:00:37,679 --> 00:00:41,039 But it's warm out there. It's not cold. I think you would 11 00:00:41,039 --> 00:00:43,679 all agree it's warm. I love your weather updates every Sunday. Well, 12 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,079 it's important. I'm outside a lot, except this time of the year, 13 00:00:47,119 --> 00:00:51,200 I'm more in the gym than outside. It's fascinating how much the weather changes. 14 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,759 I was out there at like four to fifteen this morning, and down 15 00:00:54,799 --> 00:00:57,159 in Sawreta, so it's a little cooler there. Absolutely. It was. 16 00:00:57,439 --> 00:01:00,640 It was like fifty six degrees when I was out there. Oh really, 17 00:01:00,679 --> 00:01:02,600 and it gets up to like, you know, it gets up to like 18 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,560 one oh five there, so you're just like a fifty degree swing that you 19 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:07,319 know, this place. Aye, it's kind of like those old Western movies, 20 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,879 right remember, would they'd be swaltering in a day time, in a 21 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,280 night they'd be freezing and what not? Quite that right, bad, But 22 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,879 there's a dramatic difference, especially when the air gets dry like it is now. 23 00:01:18,439 --> 00:01:22,480 Exactly what a week in the market? What a month? What a 24 00:01:22,599 --> 00:01:30,400 year so far? The week started off kind of quiet. The first three 25 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,680 or four days of the week, we're kind of quiet. But on Friday, 26 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,120 the last day of the quarter, the last day before money managers and 27 00:01:37,239 --> 00:01:42,400 mutual funds and hedge fund managers all put their quarterly reports out to the public, 28 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:48,359 there were no sellers, insight. It was all buyers from the get 29 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:53,319 go. It started off moving higher and just gained ground throughout the day. 30 00:01:53,959 --> 00:01:59,319 And that's indicative to me of people that are wanting to window dress. Oh 31 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,760 yeah, well, I mean yeah, you kind of see that always going 32 00:02:00,799 --> 00:02:04,920 into the end of a quarter. It's usually a run up and then also 33 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,879 same time, it was a holiday weekend in a sense. I mean, 34 00:02:07,879 --> 00:02:10,960 I know we're open tomorrow at for half a day, but you still see 35 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:15,120 that run up. That bring up an interesting point. We have an interesting 36 00:02:15,159 --> 00:02:20,240 week next week with the fourth of July holiday on Tuesday, yep. And 37 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,199 Wall Street is good at getting out early, and so Monday the market is 38 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:30,759 open until one pm on in New York, which means at ten am in 39 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:36,879 Tucson the market's closed. So Monday we're open until ten I think the office 40 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,520 might be until ten thirty or eleven and then that's it, and then Tuesday 41 00:02:39,599 --> 00:02:46,680 off. And the people often ask why why would you even open it all? 42 00:02:46,719 --> 00:02:50,919 And that's because there is a law that came about back in the nineteen 43 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:58,840 thirty three that says financial institutions shall not be closed for more than three consecutive 44 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,960 days, which that's yeah, you gotta get your money, giving people access 45 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:06,400 to their money. Yeah, And of course that was done long before at 46 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,960 ms and electronic transfers and things of that nature that make it kind of kind 47 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:15,080 of silly, but it is what it is. And that's why we were 48 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:20,159 opened the Friday after Thanksgiving as well, because that would be four consecutive days, 49 00:03:20,199 --> 00:03:24,159 which is which is brown on if it. Dean is still traveling any 50 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:29,759 updates dealing from They're in Portugal right now and he's enjoying life as much as 51 00:03:29,759 --> 00:03:34,240 he can as he's hobbling around. But he's isn't He's getting better, getting 52 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,439 better in the sense of his legs strengthening, but he has nossability, so 53 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,560 he's just getting used to it. It's probably an ACLS it sounds like, 54 00:03:40,039 --> 00:03:43,120 but he's definitely getting used to it and making the best of it. I 55 00:03:43,199 --> 00:03:46,280 thought thought it was interesting that in Europe they don't use the crutches, the 56 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,520 wooden crutches like we do that go under your arm now that connect them to 57 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,479 your forums. Yeah, the forums, Like you've seen people with polio that 58 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,919 will use exact same ones. Yeah, it's the exact same and and he 59 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:59,879 said that they're they're way better. Yeah, I never used all use the 60 00:03:59,879 --> 00:04:00,680 one. It's gonna go to your arm pit. They suck. Yeah, 61 00:04:00,759 --> 00:04:04,039 it makes a lot of sense that now you were you were last weekend, 62 00:04:04,039 --> 00:04:08,599 you were here, you were up in Peoria, Peoria, Leo, Peoria, 63 00:04:08,719 --> 00:04:12,080 Arizona. Though no, you're in all the way to the real Peoria. 64 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,319 Yeah, Peoria, Leno, I was back there for a friend's wedding, 65 00:04:14,719 --> 00:04:17,160 and what kind of reports do you have for us from Peoria? The 66 00:04:17,199 --> 00:04:20,240 weather was hot. It wasn't really like a man Dylan. Yeah, it 67 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,079 was hot. It was. It was more humid though, but a small 68 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:25,879 town, it is a good time. Yeah, but it's a shame you 69 00:04:26,079 --> 00:04:29,639 so you didn't get seventy degree weather and a break from the heat or anything. 70 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,399 No, it was like ninety plus with humidity. With humidity during the 71 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,399 mornings were like way better. They were sixty degrees where we started golfing in 72 00:04:36,399 --> 00:04:40,279 the like early mornings, but by the time it was midday it was Yeah, 73 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,720 it was nineties. It was good to have you back. I think 74 00:04:42,959 --> 00:04:46,519 Dean is traveling again next weekend and then the following you will be back for 75 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:51,839 the fourteenth, which is the sixteenth for episode show for the show the sixteen 76 00:04:51,959 --> 00:04:56,759 yep. Yeah. So those of you that miss his voice, you can 77 00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:00,600 always go to the iHeart website or the iHeart app, and or you can 78 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,600 click on the microphone in the upper left hand corner of our right of Greenberg 79 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:10,600 Financial dot Com and to listen to any of our past shows. So if 80 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,800 you're new to our show and kind of wondering, Hey, what what are 81 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,800 these guys all about? You certainly can listen to any of the past shows. 82 00:05:16,879 --> 00:05:19,759 And since we're talking about the show, let's get rid of that disclaimer 83 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:24,560 real quick. This show has been sponsored by Greenberg Financial Group. You can 84 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,319 listen on seven ninety k ST or Higheart Radio. To show discusses different investment 85 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,000 products and strategies. Every product in strategy has some type of inherent risk. 86 00:05:31,319 --> 00:05:35,600 We strongly encourage our listeners to probably understand these risks to determine whether to buy, 87 00:05:35,639 --> 00:05:38,759 sell, or hold. Show has been on the air for over thirty 88 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,240 years. Greenberg Financial Group is registered with the SEC as a member of FENRA 89 00:05:42,399 --> 00:05:46,560 and SIPIC. You can visit our website Greenberg financial dot com or more information. 90 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,759 Thank you John. Headlines this week, probably the biggest headline, at 91 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:56,120 least early in the week was the Wagner Groups march on Moscow. Is it 92 00:05:56,199 --> 00:06:00,839 Wagner or Wagner, Wagner, Wagner, I probably Wagner, Yeah, probably 93 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:02,720 Wagner. I've heard different people say different things. I think Wagner, or 94 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:09,759 we can just call him Wagner. That's American Wager Group. Big news in 95 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,040 the war that we haven't heard much about recently. And you know, Putin's 96 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,680 had been in power for twenty three years and really that's probably the biggest threat 97 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:18,839 to his power ever. Well, Todd, you were telling me, it 98 00:06:18,879 --> 00:06:23,079 turns out that guy was like his best friend, good friend, stuff like 99 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:27,240 that. Yeah, apparently he's developed a very kin relationship over the years with 100 00:06:27,439 --> 00:06:30,800 the leader of the Wagner Group and UM was eventually kind of the reason the 101 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,360 Wagner Group everything was created in the first place was to have Putin have a 102 00:06:34,439 --> 00:06:39,399 private militia UM. And you're not allowed to have private militias in Russia according 103 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,560 to their laws UM. But this Wagner Group is, you know, registered 104 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,160 in outside of UM Russia, so they're able to get around some of that 105 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:53,519 jurisdiction issues. But it's kind of like Putin's gang for example, it really 106 00:06:53,639 --> 00:06:56,720 is. And then the gang kind of didn't like what they were how they 107 00:06:56,759 --> 00:06:59,600 were being treated, and then the gang leader kind of said, you couldn't 108 00:06:59,639 --> 00:07:04,079 give me what I want or we're coming to Moscow in procotion really became friends 109 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:10,560 with Putin back when he had a catering company and provided meals for Putin. 110 00:07:10,639 --> 00:07:15,000 They actually called him putin chef. Yes, so y'all have heard all about 111 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,680 this all week on the TV. But one thing I thought was fascinating is 112 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:23,199 I went to the gym on Tuesday. I think it is when it's broke, 113 00:07:23,639 --> 00:07:27,279 and it had just broken. It was relatively fresh news, like within 114 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,519 the last twelve hours or so. And I'm at the gym and in front 115 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,279 of the treadmill that I use is CNN, so I'm forced to look at 116 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:39,639 it. And they spent the first thirty minutes of their four o'clock hour, 117 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,800 which is seven o'clock in New York, right, that's prime time. They 118 00:07:42,879 --> 00:07:46,319 spent the first thirty minutes talking about Trump. YEP, I was watching the 119 00:07:46,399 --> 00:07:50,920 same might choose fitness, watching the same thing. I remember back when they 120 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:55,639 first started, it was the Turner News Network TNN, and I think it 121 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,920 ought to be TNN again Trump News Network, right, because they're doing more 122 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:05,399 for Trump than any campaign manager, than any donor. Yeah, the problem 123 00:08:05,519 --> 00:08:07,720 is no one watches CNN anymore. No, that's true. The viewership is 124 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:11,319 way Absolutely, it's so bad. Yeah, it's so bad. But I 125 00:08:11,399 --> 00:08:16,040 mean they're giving him constant coverage, keeping his name out there and and inflaming 126 00:08:16,079 --> 00:08:20,279 at least half of the country, and so let's rename it the TNN. 127 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,759 I saw a status says, you know, Tucker Carlson during his primetime on 128 00:08:24,839 --> 00:08:31,439 Fox had a one hundred times the viewers that CNN would have during their primetime 129 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:35,360 hour. And the really interesting thing is people like Joe Rogan his podcast a 130 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:41,120 thousand times the viewers CNNs. So the reach is just not there for CNN. 131 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,720 They don't have the same type of media power as they used to. 132 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,519 Yeah, they did it to themselves. It's absolutely is what it is. 133 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,080 And they did they did. And I was saying that maybe that maybe Warner 134 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:56,720 Brothers will just shut him down, right, but they had a net profit 135 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:01,440 last year of a billion dollars. You think five there's gonna let CNN shut 136 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,960 down the I mean, that's their marketing arm. There's no way they're gonna 137 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:11,279 let Other headlines came from the Supreme Court a couple of major rulings, and 138 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:16,200 I know we all have opinions. They were that that race based college admission 139 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:20,480 was declared unconstitutional, affirmative action, affirmative action, and student loan forgiveness of 140 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:26,080 no way forget it bout the Biden is so that needs congressional approval. They 141 00:09:26,159 --> 00:09:28,399 said that, Yeah, and then does Friday afternoon, Biden had a press 142 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:33,559 conference and he said that he's going to find another avenue to figure it out 143 00:09:33,879 --> 00:09:35,840 because it's just so much for the people to give them that And that's just 144 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:41,480 the talking. That's just politics. There is no other angle. The entire 145 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:45,279 time, it's been politics. He said it like a month before the midterms 146 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,519 that you were going to relieve student debt, and everyone knew you can't do 147 00:09:48,639 --> 00:09:52,080 that. It's on constitution. We're halfway through the year and through and the 148 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,720 s and P five hundred is up fifteen point nine percent for the year. 149 00:09:56,399 --> 00:10:03,120 The nashtack up thirty one point seven percent for the year. We talk on 150 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,720 and on about the equal weighted SMP five hundred, which is really more representative 151 00:10:07,799 --> 00:10:13,919 of what's going on in people's accounts. Rather than fifteen point nine percent that 152 00:10:13,039 --> 00:10:18,080 the SMP is up, the equal SMP is up five point nine, so 153 00:10:18,399 --> 00:10:22,080 a ten percent difference. Yeah, and we keep hammering that too, that 154 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,240 we've been talking about it for a while now. It's the magnificent seven stocks 155 00:10:26,279 --> 00:10:31,679 that are really increased in the NASDAC. The SMP five hundred only really apples 156 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,679 in them or in the Dow too, so that one hasn't been as much. 157 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,320 But it seems just fabricating the sense that there's seven stocks out of the 158 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,559 five hundred roughly that are just killing it, that is driving everything. Right 159 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,960 now, I'll take it one step further, Dylan, I follow a number 160 00:10:46,039 --> 00:10:52,720 of value ETFs exchange traded funds. These are funds that have in them the 161 00:10:52,879 --> 00:10:56,639 stocks that you want to own if you're a conservative investor, the Procter and 162 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:01,279 Gamble, the Merks, the AT and Ts, the Verizons, boring dividend 163 00:11:01,279 --> 00:11:05,200 stop, boring dividend stops, and year to date, ready for this year 164 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:09,360 to date, there's five of my follow year to date, the average return 165 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:16,879 on those five exchange traded funds, including dividends is minus four percent minus four 166 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:22,600 percent. So when you have a balanced portfolio, and I talk about this 167 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:26,440 every week because I think it's important. When you look at your portfolio and 168 00:11:26,519 --> 00:11:30,039 you and we've we've had a couple of calls and uh gee, you know, 169 00:11:30,159 --> 00:11:33,759 the the SMP five hundreds up sixteen and the nazecs up thirty two and 170 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:39,360 my accounts up six Why because you're not one hundred percent in the SMP five 171 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,279 hundred. That's number one. Number two, you're you're not one hundred percent 172 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:48,960 of the NASDAC. Number three, you don't have as your primary investment vehicle 173 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:52,080 the magnificent seven. Yeah, you have a position in the magnificent seven. 174 00:11:52,159 --> 00:11:56,200 Let's say almost everybody has Apple. You might have three percent Apple, four 175 00:11:56,279 --> 00:12:01,360 percent Apple, well Apples eight percent of the s P five hundred. Yeah, 176 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,080 we have Microsoft for a lot of people. We haven't a video for 177 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,000 a lot of people. But I mean, if your risk tolerance isn't high, 178 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,080 you're not going to be necessarily in nvidio because nvidio swings a lot. 179 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,519 Just last year, it was out one hundred and eight dollars a share, 180 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,200 yea, and it kept going down and people didn't want to buy more of 181 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:20,120 it because they thought it was going to just crashed down to nothing. And 182 00:12:20,279 --> 00:12:22,879 now they're saying, why don't we buy more down there? Because I don't 183 00:12:22,919 --> 00:12:26,879 have the risktolerance too. We told them clients have had that that. We 184 00:12:26,919 --> 00:12:28,480 told him that's why we do what we do with that, because you can't 185 00:12:28,519 --> 00:12:31,279 just throw them one hundred percent in because when it's going down, they can't 186 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:35,639 stomach that downturn. I remember the end of twenty two, the end of 187 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,559 twenty twenty two, which was just six months ago, nobody wanted anything to 188 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:46,120 do with Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, nobody wanted anything to do 189 00:12:48,159 --> 00:12:50,919 They wanted out, and now nobody everybody wants it. And so if you're 190 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,879 missing out, everybody wants it. So I think the funny thing is if 191 00:12:54,919 --> 00:12:58,279 you took the economic picture at the beginning of twenty twenty two and showed it 192 00:12:58,399 --> 00:13:03,159 now. I mean, overall, the economic numbers they're not much different, 193 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:07,759 but they're they're slightly worse, and overall, yes, right. And also 194 00:13:07,879 --> 00:13:09,960 the story was in the beginning of twenty twenty two, let's not go tech 195 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,000 stocks because interest rates are so high. When interest rates are high, that's 196 00:13:13,039 --> 00:13:16,200 not a good time for tech stocks. Halfway in the year, interest rates 197 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:20,240 are even higher than what they were at the beginning, and tech stocks didn't 198 00:13:20,279 --> 00:13:26,159 care. They absolutely normally we see there's a negative correlation, right, I 199 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,960 mean, when rates are increasing stock tech stocks are going to go down in 200 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,440 value, and that's what we saw last year. Like you were saying, 201 00:13:33,639 --> 00:13:37,759 but I mean now that navzacs two off doesn't care what it lost last year, 202 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,279 it's up thirty two percent this year. Yeah. And at the end 203 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,240 of twenty two, again everyone, not everyone, but a lot of people 204 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,159 were wanting to be more defensive, wanting to be out of tech, wanting 205 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:52,600 to be less aggressive. And we pointed out that there's only been two times 206 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:56,919 in the last seventy five years whether there have been back to back down years. 207 00:13:58,039 --> 00:14:01,840 We said this, so the odds favor twenty twenty three being an up 208 00:14:01,919 --> 00:14:07,960 year. I don't think we had any inkling that artificial intelligence would just storm 209 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:16,279 into the room and give everybody Christmas bonuses. It's just amazing how dramatic that's 210 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:20,759 been. But money managers falling all over one another last week to make sure 211 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,799 that they're participating in the hot areas. As we get to the end of 212 00:14:24,879 --> 00:14:28,600 that statement, feriod, but we repeat, it's a very narrow rally, 213 00:14:28,799 --> 00:14:33,600 so it's very fragile rally. Yeah, temper your expectations. We have. 214 00:14:33,759 --> 00:14:39,919 The fear index is the lowest it's been since January of twenty twenty, right 215 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:43,960 before the pandemic. It is close to the lowest it's ever been in history. 216 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:50,279 This is when you find complacency that's not good, you generally build the 217 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,759 best market rallies. When people are nervous, when people are concerned, you'll 218 00:14:52,799 --> 00:14:56,200 climb that wall of worry. You'll hear yeah. And I mean, that's 219 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,480 what makes me nervous about this rally right now, is that it could change 220 00:15:00,519 --> 00:15:03,639 real quick, and it could drop fast because it is so fragile. Was 221 00:15:03,639 --> 00:15:05,720 just a few stocks that are really writing it. I think the first attempts 222 00:15:05,799 --> 00:15:11,159 to sell it off will probably be arrested because there are a lot of people 223 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,799 that feel like they've missed this. Yeah. So I think those first couple 224 00:15:13,879 --> 00:15:20,120 of downward pushes will be short and be modest, but there could be a 225 00:15:20,159 --> 00:15:22,480 bigger one coming. Well. Yeah. My whole thing with that is that 226 00:15:22,559 --> 00:15:26,480 if you got a bunch of individual investors now on robin hood or doing it 227 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:30,799 on their own, that if they start seeing these tech companies drop just a 228 00:15:30,879 --> 00:15:33,679 little bit or start dropping maybe ten percent lower, they're gonna get out too, 229 00:15:33,679 --> 00:15:35,360 because they're gonna say, all right, I want to lock in my 230 00:15:35,559 --> 00:15:37,919 profit and just get out. So then you start seeing it down, down, 231 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:43,360 down, And Todd you pointed out that the economy today is probably worse 232 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:46,759 than it was in the beginning of twenty two a year and a half ago. 233 00:15:46,159 --> 00:15:52,440 Interest rates are certainly dramatically higher. The inversions, the yield inversion, 234 00:15:52,519 --> 00:15:58,879 which is a warning sign of not good things to come, continues to get 235 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:03,679 even bigger. This past week. We saw it go from we were at 236 00:16:03,759 --> 00:16:07,799 one percent last week, which was the biggest we'd ever seen. Today it's 237 00:16:07,879 --> 00:16:11,240 a three point eight five was the ten year, and the two years four 238 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:17,240 point eight eight, So it's actually more than one percent. So that inverted 239 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,679 yield curve, which again is is kind of the canary in the coal mine, 240 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,320 if you will. And I don't want to be too big. I 241 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,759 don't want to throw a wet blanket on it, because it's been a wonderful 242 00:16:25,879 --> 00:16:29,840 year, a wonderful quarter. Our counsel are doing great, our clients are 243 00:16:29,879 --> 00:16:33,840 doing great, and we want that to continue until we all die. Exactly. 244 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,440 This is the whole idea of what we've been preaching too for the last 245 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,279 few months is be cautious. Be cautious. Yeah, I think I thought 246 00:16:40,639 --> 00:16:42,679 optimistic Right now, I've got I got a segment that I added a few 247 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:47,879 weeks back. What now, Yeah, OK, I get that, asked 248 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:49,480 quite a bit from clients. What do we do now? What do we 249 00:16:49,559 --> 00:16:52,759 do now? Yeah. I think there's two things you do now. Number 250 00:16:52,799 --> 00:16:56,559 one is the most obvious. Take profits in the high flyers. If you 251 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:00,559 happen to have a Dylan, I think you said last week, if you 252 00:17:00,679 --> 00:17:03,680 had three percent in Nvidia, now you have six, bring it back to 253 00:17:03,759 --> 00:17:07,119 three. You know exactly three percent Apple, you know, have five, 254 00:17:07,599 --> 00:17:12,839 bring it back to three. Take profits and hold your core, hold that 255 00:17:14,319 --> 00:17:17,480 that core. And we've done that throughout the whole thing. And honestly, 256 00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:22,599 we've been too cautious. We've been too cautious for this market. But with 257 00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:26,680 that said, we have been sixty percent invested in the market. We have 258 00:17:26,799 --> 00:17:30,920 had our core. We are participating. Every one of our clients has nearly 259 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:36,599 ten percent in the SMP five hundred. Every one of our clients has around 260 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:41,240 four percent in the NASDAC composit. So we're participating. And part of the 261 00:17:41,279 --> 00:17:44,759 reason we've been more cautious too, is because of a lot of our clients 262 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,720 use their retirement accounts that they have with us for income. So we're not 263 00:17:48,759 --> 00:17:51,319 sitting there trying to gain as much as possible in the markets. We're trying 264 00:17:51,319 --> 00:17:53,000 to make sure a lasting through retirement. So we are going to put hedges 265 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,119 on it. We're gonna put stuff like that on to kind of be a 266 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,920 little cautious on the cautious side for those accounts. You know, in Hindsights 267 00:18:00,039 --> 00:18:03,000 twenty twenty, you zoom back to March when we have three bank failures. 268 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:07,720 I mean people were really worried. Yea, zoom back to January right with 269 00:18:08,279 --> 00:18:12,720 unknown amount of continual hate rate hikes and the market going down. I mean 270 00:18:12,799 --> 00:18:18,799 there's always there was true and there still is true worries about this economy that 271 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,559 cannot be ignored. Well, that's a very point when markets are rallying like 272 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,759 this, to only think it's going to continue. That's a great point because 273 00:18:25,839 --> 00:18:27,559 right in two thousand and eight, didn't Bear Starns go out first, and 274 00:18:27,599 --> 00:18:30,480 then everybody thought it was back to normal, and then six months later is 275 00:18:30,519 --> 00:18:33,240 when the real collapse happened, with Lehman Brothers and all them, and Bank 276 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,960 Merrill Lynch going out and the dollars increasing right now, which sounds like a 277 00:18:38,039 --> 00:18:41,160 good thing for us, but it's not a good thing for most of the 278 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:45,720 world. Okay, when the dollars increasing, a lot of countries they have 279 00:18:45,839 --> 00:18:49,480 problems servicing debt, they have problems with their own inflation worries, and so 280 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,880 when the dollar keeps increasing, it's like building up the pressure in the financial 281 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,559 pipes of the entire system. Right, and I saw a report last week 282 00:18:57,599 --> 00:19:03,519 that thus far in twenty twenty three there have been forty one corporate default that's 283 00:19:03,599 --> 00:19:08,599 more than double the same period last year, and it's primarily due to writing 284 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,799 interest rates. That's not talked about enough. Dave and I saw a really 285 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:19,960 interesting chart where it plots bankruptcies against the credit spreads. And so what a 286 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:26,680 credit spread is is taking the US high yield credit rate against just a normal 287 00:19:27,039 --> 00:19:30,240 ten year treasury, for example, and seeing how much that spread is. 288 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:36,440 You expect the spread to be greater in times of economy when the economy is 289 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:41,119 in distress. The reason being is who's gonna be giving a really bad company 290 00:19:41,279 --> 00:19:45,079 alone in two thousand and eight, right, So I'll give a bad company 291 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:49,240 a loan in twenty twenty when every company's getting free money, right, right, 292 00:19:49,519 --> 00:19:52,039 they can pay that back up. But when the economy is bad up, 293 00:19:52,279 --> 00:19:55,960 they're not gonna pay. So you have to charge a higher rate of 294 00:19:56,039 --> 00:20:00,279 interest on those bad loans. The credit spread is not moving, it's not 295 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:07,039 budging, but bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing, which means the market is not it's 296 00:20:07,079 --> 00:20:11,480 not looking at reality. It's normally this is a very correlated chart, and 297 00:20:11,559 --> 00:20:15,079 it's not right now. I spoke to Dan this morning, and I should 298 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,440 mention he's been gone for a while, a little over a month, right, 299 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,920 he's going to be gone from the beginning to the end. But he's 300 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:27,480 in touch with the office multiple times a day. So if we were thinking 301 00:20:27,599 --> 00:20:32,240 we got rid of him, that didn't happen. No, he's all in 302 00:20:32,279 --> 00:20:33,960 the know of what's going on. Yeah, and the technology is such that 303 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:40,240 he actually has his office computer on his desk in the hotel room. Yeah. 304 00:20:40,279 --> 00:20:41,400 He can't get away from it too long, you know. And because 305 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:45,799 there's an eight hour time difference, the market opens there at what two o'clock 306 00:20:45,839 --> 00:20:49,799 in Portugal or two thirty in Portugal thirty you know, when he gets done 307 00:20:49,839 --> 00:20:52,200 for supper, it's in the kind of the middle of the trading day here, 308 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,680 and he's yeah, but they're in Europe, so dinner starts at ten. 309 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,799 Yeah? Is that how they do it? At ten o'clock? That's 310 00:20:57,799 --> 00:21:02,640 what they're saying, Oh, how did they stay slam? That would just 311 00:21:02,799 --> 00:21:06,240 yeah, walk yeah, and you eat it a lot slower. Yeah, 312 00:21:06,279 --> 00:21:07,759 you had dinner for four hours. I like to go to France with them. 313 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,599 Don't they have dessert first. I don't know you're gonna feed me dessert 314 00:21:11,599 --> 00:21:17,119 at ten o'clock. I'm gonna go to bed. Yeah, exactly. Interest 315 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:25,119 rate Paul again this week before congressional testimony reiterated that more interest rate hikes are 316 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,920 coming, and that was reiterated on Thursday with that quarter one GDP revision, 317 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,079 yes to two percent from one point three, which is a huge revision. 318 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,319 You don't normally see that big of a jump, but that's showing the economy 319 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,720 was even better than we thought in quarter one, which in the Fed's eyes 320 00:21:38,839 --> 00:21:42,039 is not a good thing if you're trying to lower inflation. And well, 321 00:21:42,039 --> 00:21:47,759 again we continue to have a Goldilocks type of an approach from investors, and 322 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,319 they just simply don't want to miss out. They're they're picturing interest rates coming 323 00:21:52,440 --> 00:22:00,400 down, they're picturing artificial intelligence driving the corporate profits, and they're picturing avoiding 324 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,640 a recession completely. The bond market is saying there, I don't think so, 325 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,799 So somebody's wrong, and it will be interesting. I think we've we've 326 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,799 now had the price to earnings ratio, which again is just one measure of 327 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,519 the market, but the price to earnings ratio as of Friday's close was around 328 00:22:15,559 --> 00:22:23,759 twenty five times historic average sixteen. That's sixty percent. The valuations are sixty 329 00:22:23,799 --> 00:22:27,960 percent above. You typically see that when you're coming out of a recession. 330 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,240 That's when you would typically see that kind of a price earnings ratios when you 331 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,480 expected earnings to be increasing rapidly. Right, So there's two things that has 332 00:22:37,519 --> 00:22:45,240 to happen. Either, either corporate profits need need to corporate profits need to 333 00:22:45,319 --> 00:22:48,759 get growing in a hurry. And we're not in that kind of an environment 334 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,880 where corporate profits are going to grow rapidly because inflation is slowing. Right, 335 00:22:53,079 --> 00:22:59,279 So the market is that I remember Alan Greenspan's famous irrational exuberance. I think 336 00:22:59,319 --> 00:23:03,279 we've all heard that term, that irrational exuberance. And the market does right 337 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:11,279 now have irrational exuberance. Right, it is envisioning a world that does not 338 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,599 exist at this point. It's supposed to look out six months. Okay, 339 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,039 so six months from now, will it look better? Will the Fed be 340 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:22,799 cutting interest rates? Of If the Fed is cutting interest rates in six months 341 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:26,440 it's because the economy has come to a grining halt that's certainly not going to 342 00:23:26,519 --> 00:23:30,400 grow corporate profits. Yeah, we're kind of we're kind of scratching our heads 343 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,599 a little bit. Dean and I talked about this morning how this is. 344 00:23:33,319 --> 00:23:37,079 We've both been doing this about forty years, and this is one of the 345 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:42,720 more perplexing times where you have this tremendous dichotomy between the NASDAC up thirty one 346 00:23:42,799 --> 00:23:48,240 point seven percent and the value ETFs down five percent. It's just it's just 347 00:23:48,599 --> 00:23:53,920 so strange to also diversions in the bond markets thinking and the stock markets thinking, 348 00:23:55,000 --> 00:24:00,279 the huge inverse yield which is and and the persistence of it. We're 349 00:24:00,599 --> 00:24:04,799 closing in on the longest period of inversion in history. So it's a very 350 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:10,319 strange time. And we'll be back after this match. You We appreciate your 351 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,440 taking time to listen to us this morning. We got a whole bunch more 352 00:24:12,519 --> 00:24:17,200 information. Jonathan Civilia, our attorney, is going to be here talking about 353 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:22,039 things, and again check out the website the our website or check out our 354 00:24:22,079 --> 00:24:26,839 website Greenberg Financial dot com for more information. We'll be back right after this 355 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:34,599 break. Say it's a Welcome back to the Money Matters Show. My name 356 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,000 is Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg and Dave Sherwood. And what 357 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,680 first half of the year it has been specifically for the NASDAC year to day, 358 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,160 it's up thirty one percent, the smps up fifteen and the downs up 359 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,279 three point eight. And so let's go look at history, right, what 360 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,599 happens when the market's done this well in the first half. What happens in 361 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,079 the second half? I remember last year we actually had a really bad first 362 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,559 half of the year and we all had a a bet, it is the 363 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,680 second half going to end up? Right? It's it never had before ended 364 00:25:04,799 --> 00:25:08,440 lower then always ended higher. Before I had a hundred percent right, it 365 00:25:08,519 --> 00:25:12,039 had ended higher than it was on June thirtieth, and it just barely and 366 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:18,039 it did and again right, So this year, obviously we've had quite a 367 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,519 big run up. And someone did the study for us, so I didn't 368 00:25:21,559 --> 00:25:23,200 have to do all this research, which is really nice. But the study 369 00:25:23,279 --> 00:25:27,119 found that since nineteen forty five, the SMP five hundred has risen on average 370 00:25:27,559 --> 00:25:32,359 five percent in the second half of the year when the index recorded a positive 371 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:36,119 return in the first half. Now, when the first half of the gains 372 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,599 were greater than ten percent, which they were this year, gains in the 373 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,240 second half the year averaged eight percent, which is twice the average of second 374 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:47,680 half of all returns. So really, pointing to history, we should see 375 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,640 another good second half of the year. Now, of course, history doesn't 376 00:25:51,799 --> 00:25:56,559 always repeat normally rhymes, as Mark Twain puts it, but it's one one 377 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,240 little stat there for you. And like we always say about it, history 378 00:26:00,319 --> 00:26:07,319 is simply a guide. There've been you know, August and September are traditionally 379 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:11,400 the two worst months for the market, and in twenty thirteen they were the 380 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,440 two best months of the year. Yeah, but more often than not they've 381 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:18,720 been the worst. August, August September are difficult. Now, July has 382 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,480 historically been over the last fifty years, has been the best month the market. 383 00:26:22,599 --> 00:26:26,519 July and historically July tends to be a positive month for the SMP in 384 00:26:26,599 --> 00:26:30,640 the third year of the US presidential site. That's right, So you got 385 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,640 that going, but you got multiple things going. But then again, December 386 00:26:33,759 --> 00:26:36,960 tends to be a great month, Christmas rally and all that. In twenty 387 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,920 and eighteen it got hammered twenty, right, So I think I think you 388 00:26:41,079 --> 00:26:45,960 probably say at this point that the market's going higher until further notice. Oh 389 00:26:45,039 --> 00:26:48,559 yeah, because the momentum. You have this momentum at the same time, 390 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,200 don't chase it. Don't don't be inclined to chase it, because what's gonna 391 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,880 happen is you're gonna jump in there. You're gonna say, I can't take 392 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,680 it anymore, I gotta get in and then the market's going to take a 393 00:26:57,759 --> 00:27:02,119 ten percent head er trickle. Don't go one hundred percent in right away. 394 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:03,119 If you want to get your feet wet. Let's talk about this. What 395 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,519 happens if the war ends? What does the market do? What happens if 396 00:27:07,559 --> 00:27:11,039 why the Russian war ends, the Ukraine war ends exactly though, if that 397 00:27:11,319 --> 00:27:15,119 ends, the market's going to take off. And isn't that interesting? The 398 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,000 Wagner group is no longer going to fight in Ukraine. Weren't they pretty much 399 00:27:19,079 --> 00:27:22,759 it? They were the front lines. I mean, weren't they the guys 400 00:27:22,799 --> 00:27:26,759 that were creating the biggest problem for the Ukrainian Yeah, there's a lot of 401 00:27:26,759 --> 00:27:30,240 silence around all this, which is odd. It is if you do have 402 00:27:30,599 --> 00:27:37,519 a war that's resolved, which I don't see how that military industrial complex allows 403 00:27:37,599 --> 00:27:41,720 that to happen. But say it does, right, what happens, the 404 00:27:41,839 --> 00:27:45,160 market's going to take that very well, and it could keep running. I 405 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,039 mean until there's something really bad, like another bank or the FED saying you 406 00:27:48,079 --> 00:27:52,400 guys are doing bad, like he did at Jackson Hole last year, where 407 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,759 you know, Jerome Powe says you guys are going too crazy. If you 408 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:56,920 keep doing what you're doing, I'm gonna raise rates even more, and the 409 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,680 market fell big time that week. Right, So right now, it's be 410 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,519 long or be wrong. Right, It's that simple and so there. And 411 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,319 like I Dylan, I agree with you that there's going to be a pullback. 412 00:28:07,559 --> 00:28:12,519 I think the first few pullbacks get arrested at a fairly short pullback because 413 00:28:12,559 --> 00:28:17,440 so many people are looking for an opportunity to get in. Yeah, that's 414 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:18,720 true. If you see a three to five percent pullback in some of those 415 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,839 stocks, they will probably get in, I think. So I think, 416 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,640 so how long will that last? And in August September coming up, so 417 00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:27,559 we'll see how how much higher we can go. In July, you've got 418 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:32,599 the SMP five hundred, which has averaged ten percent a year for the last 419 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:37,039 hundred years, up sixteen percent in six months. Is this going to be 420 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,920 one of those twenty twenty five thirty percent years. Let's hope so well, 421 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,119 yeah, we want we want to hope so I mean, but at the 422 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:45,880 same time, we want to be intelligent about it. Yeah, we don't 423 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,000 want to jump in full force in tech and then we hit the high and 424 00:28:49,039 --> 00:28:52,680 then all of a sudden everything drops. You know, I think it's hard 425 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,240 to and the market is irrational, I guess at irrational exuberance. But the 426 00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,680 market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. It's all based on 427 00:29:00,799 --> 00:29:04,680 risk and reward. How much reward is there still to be made when the 428 00:29:04,839 --> 00:29:08,759 markets you know, Apple just hit three trillion again, the video hit a 429 00:29:08,839 --> 00:29:12,039 trillion market cap. I mean, these companies have had a huge run up. 430 00:29:12,079 --> 00:29:15,359 There's not a lot of reward left. And there's a way way way 431 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,119 more risk and reward trade off. Go ahead, No, go ahead, 432 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,480 go ahead. I was risal reward trade off here. It is not good. 433 00:29:23,119 --> 00:29:26,200 It's not good. There certainly is more downside than upside. And that's 434 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:30,240 the thing right now is a lot of people are not looking at their accounts 435 00:29:30,279 --> 00:29:33,000 because or they're just like we'll stay with it because everything's rallying up or right 436 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,720 now is an important time to look at your account and make sure what if 437 00:29:37,759 --> 00:29:41,279 the markets do turn down, are you going to be okay with the holdings 438 00:29:41,319 --> 00:29:42,359 that you're in. Do you want to go more conservative? Do you want 439 00:29:42,359 --> 00:29:45,920 to go more aggressive? Do you know what's going on in your portfolio? 440 00:29:45,519 --> 00:29:48,279 If you don't, you gotta come talk to us and we can help you 441 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,720 figure everything out and play it all out in a visual to make sure you 442 00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:55,519 are comfortable with what's going on. Because I know right now everybody's happy because 443 00:29:55,559 --> 00:29:59,359 the markets are up, but the minute they talent, they have a downturn. 444 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,759 If you or too aggressive for your own risk tolerance, you're going to 445 00:30:02,799 --> 00:30:06,240 be uncomfortable. So now is the time to say, if you need to 446 00:30:06,279 --> 00:30:08,039 take some profits, you need to take some money off the table and aggressive 447 00:30:08,119 --> 00:30:11,880 stuff and put it in more conservative. Now is the time to do it, 448 00:30:11,039 --> 00:30:14,440 because you can't take some profit off the table. I mean when you 449 00:30:14,519 --> 00:30:18,279 have a risk and reward compared to a guaranteed five point four percent in the 450 00:30:18,319 --> 00:30:22,839 one year treasury. Right now, you have a Vanguard money market which isn't 451 00:30:22,839 --> 00:30:25,880 guarantee, but it's at five percent, right, I mean, these are 452 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:30,079 places where you can park money and earn respectable rates of returns. Exactly. 453 00:30:30,519 --> 00:30:33,759 Why risk that for a little bit of a reward. It does give us 454 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:38,359 the ability to be more defensive. It does because we're getting paid pretty nicely 455 00:30:38,799 --> 00:30:42,880 on our defensive holding. We're getting five percent or better on all of our 456 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:48,519 defensive holding, so we're comfortable being a little bit more cautious here exactly. 457 00:30:48,599 --> 00:30:49,559 And I mean, if this is for anybody out there, if it is 458 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,759 something that you've been kind of wondering and you maybe start thinking, all right, 459 00:30:52,759 --> 00:30:56,519 it's kind of getting a little overheated. Do I need to check this 460 00:30:56,599 --> 00:30:57,720 out or change stuff? You've got to come talk to us and we'd be 461 00:30:57,759 --> 00:31:00,880 happy to help with a free financial plan that we talk about all the time. 462 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,359 It goes very in depth with everything and it helps get you on track 463 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:08,559 for your retirement plan to make sure you are in line with your risk tolers. 464 00:31:08,599 --> 00:31:12,119 That is the biggest thing in times like these when the market is up, 465 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,599 because you don't know if it does have a downturn. And that one 466 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,599 year treasury at five point four percent, that's the highest rate since two thousand. 467 00:31:19,039 --> 00:31:22,000 Okay, rights it's bigger than anything happened in two thousand and eights past 468 00:31:22,039 --> 00:31:25,839 five point four now five point four on the one year. I mean, 469 00:31:26,279 --> 00:31:30,200 when you're looking at I had talking with a client yesterday about this, and 470 00:31:30,279 --> 00:31:33,079 he's like, it seems like you just are kind of a better a bank. 471 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,519 You get more interests, you get more insurance. If I need to 472 00:31:36,599 --> 00:31:38,079 spend anything, you just send it to me. It's in my bank account 473 00:31:38,119 --> 00:31:41,640 the next day. Sure. I mean he's kind of got a point, 474 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,440 right. I mean, you're earning more interest than you're ever going to get 475 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,920 at the bank because guess what, the bank's using the same bonds that you 476 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:52,279 would be buying, and you're not insured by the federal government. You're guaranteed 477 00:31:52,599 --> 00:31:55,559 guaranteed by the federal government. And you have Sippic on top of that. 478 00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:56,880 Yeah, and Tippic on top of it. Up to a one hundred million 479 00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:01,160 with URBC housekeeping. From last week, Todd, you had asked, we 480 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:08,000 were talking about suv excuse me, electric vehicle sales of being eighteen percent this 481 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:13,920 year and looking at twenty five percent of all new electric vehicles next year, 482 00:32:14,279 --> 00:32:17,759 and you said, but how many electric vehicles are out there? So I 483 00:32:17,839 --> 00:32:22,799 did a little homework and of all of the vehicles on the road as of 484 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:27,440 today, seven percent are electric, which is a little higher than the thought. 485 00:32:27,559 --> 00:32:29,640 Yeah, I would have said like three or four. Yeah, that's 486 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,960 where I would have been too, But about seven percent of all electric all 487 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:37,920 vehicles on the road are electric. And one of a listener called up and 488 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:43,519 he asked what we knew about auto insurance on electric vehicles. And it's kind 489 00:32:43,519 --> 00:32:49,200 of an interesting question because you think electric vehicles are way more sophisticated than combustion 490 00:32:49,359 --> 00:32:54,720 engine. There's a lot more electronics involved, there's many many fewer places to 491 00:32:54,880 --> 00:33:00,559 repair the cars, the parts are way more expensive. So what's that due 492 00:33:00,599 --> 00:33:05,759 to your auto insurance? And so I check check with Anthony figaroa from Heartland 493 00:33:05,839 --> 00:33:12,480 Insurance, and surprisingly not much. It is the and that could change. 494 00:33:13,799 --> 00:33:17,240 Insurance rates on electric vehicles are not much above traditional Now that may be too 495 00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:25,640 that most of the people driving electric vehicles today are elderly. Would you agree? 496 00:33:25,759 --> 00:33:30,880 But I'm also thinking there could be a backdoor where the government subsidizes some 497 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:36,759 of those ev insurances to allow for not you know, because if insurance is 498 00:33:36,799 --> 00:33:39,480 a lot that would detract people from wanting to buy evs, and so if 499 00:33:39,519 --> 00:33:45,759 they could subsidize those insurance providers for EV vehicles, making it somewhat relative to 500 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:49,400 normal cost insurance, then that's not an excuse. And I won't say, 501 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,000 I won't say that's not happening, but I could find I could find no 502 00:33:52,119 --> 00:33:54,559 evidence to that. But essentially, you'd think, while the insurance has got 503 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,599 to be a lot more because there's a lot more of a problem to repair 504 00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,480 the car. But then you think, well, who are the drivers. 505 00:34:00,759 --> 00:34:05,799 They're generally wealthy older people. Yeah, who tend to be pretty good drivers. 506 00:34:06,119 --> 00:34:07,920 Well that's debatable, but yeah, for sure, I'll come on, 507 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:13,639 come on, now I have a fifth of wealthy. Probably I'm certainly older. 508 00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:19,000 Oil had an interesting week, picked up a dollar seventy oils now seventy 509 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,800 seventy, and the gold was unchanged on the week at nineteen twenty one. 510 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:29,760 The dollar going up in June hurt gold again, gold priced in dollars, 511 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,239 so they moved inversely to one another, and we saw a rally in the 512 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:37,119 dollar as interest rates rose, and I got a gold stat go ahead, 513 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,920 let's have it. Going back from nineteen eighty two, I back tested. 514 00:34:42,199 --> 00:34:45,280 I wanted to see how much did gold appreciate from nineteen eighty two to the 515 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:51,320 current price three hundred and fifty percent? Right, okay from nineteen eighty two, 516 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,039 bro, you know pretty good. Compare that to the S and P 517 00:34:54,199 --> 00:34:59,880 five hundred since nineteen eighty two, three thousand, five hundred and fifty percent 518 00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,719 ten times. Just take off a three, So the SP five up ten 519 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,280 times as much as gold if you started at nineteen eighty two. Yeah, 520 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:15,800 yeah, and you probably could find And most of gold's rally occurred when during 521 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:20,079 a very short period of time, during a one two year period of time, 522 00:35:20,159 --> 00:35:23,360 it always gold always hung around four or five hundred dollars. The seventies 523 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:28,280 were that was like the big gold rush. Yeah, you invested in the 524 00:35:28,559 --> 00:35:32,119 gold in like nineteen seventy one two, you had a really nice profit. 525 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,880 So if you go back further maybe it's it's good. So it's not as 526 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,039 good. Yeah, Bitcoin had a big pop the week of the nineteenth. 527 00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:44,159 Last week a little bit of profit taking. Things kind of calmed down a 528 00:35:44,159 --> 00:35:49,199 little bit. Um ability joined the black rock chain doing that spot etf Yep, 529 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,599 let's talk about a little bit more. We'll get back after this break. 530 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:58,360 We'll be right back. Thanks for stan tune say, it's all, 531 00:36:05,639 --> 00:36:07,280 well, welcome back. You're listening to the Money Matter Show. I'm Dylan 532 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:12,320 Greenberg. I'm here with Dave Sherwood and Todd Glick talking about a great first 533 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,920 six months of the year. Marcus ended pretty up for the for the month 534 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,920 and the week and the quarter. Dylan, let me ask you a question. 535 00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,199 What is the the highest return of the nasdacs ever had in the first 536 00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:27,199 half of the year. Thirty one point seven percent. You're right, it 537 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:31,440 was this It was this year. The second closest twenty nineteen, twenty five 538 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:35,480 percent. Yeah, some of these years are interesting when you really look at 539 00:36:35,559 --> 00:36:37,719 him. Right, nineteen ninety nine, twenty two percent. What did that 540 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:43,079 coincide with? Yeah, dot combo dot com nineteen ninety five, twenty four 541 00:36:43,119 --> 00:36:45,480 percent, which is kind of the start of the doctor combo. Yes, 542 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,920 nineteen eighty three, twenty two percent, which in the eighties we had a 543 00:36:50,079 --> 00:36:53,119 very similar kind of starting point to what we're seeing with interest rates. You 544 00:36:53,199 --> 00:36:58,920 know, the eighties interest rates got really high, and then twenty nineteen twenty 545 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,039 five percent. Right next year we had the twenty twenty crast, so really 546 00:37:02,119 --> 00:37:07,679 interesting. Obviously, last year NAZDAC made the record of having a thirty percent 547 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,719 down in the first half return, so they're on the other side of that 548 00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,960 record after record in one way or another. I want to go back to 549 00:37:14,079 --> 00:37:16,239 gold though, because historically goal has been the fear in next there's kind of 550 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,760 the fear you push your stuff in there if you're scared of the markets and 551 00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,559 everything like that. But it really hasn't returned much. I mean, if 552 00:37:22,599 --> 00:37:27,639 we looked the last twenty years, what it was two percent roughly. If 553 00:37:27,679 --> 00:37:30,960 you if you're invested in gold in twenty eleven, you've made like one percent. 554 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:34,960 Yeah, And it's the idea though, it's the old tale that you've 555 00:37:35,039 --> 00:37:37,760 put money in You put your money in gold when you're scared about what's going 556 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,000 on the economy, in the market, because it's going to keep up with 557 00:37:39,079 --> 00:37:43,880 everything, because when everything goes down, goal goes up. And that's the 558 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,239 idea. But when we go through the last twenty years of having two thousand 559 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,480 and eight happened, having twenty twenty, that quick downturn happened. Oh that 560 00:37:50,599 --> 00:37:52,880 gold really didn't do much in the last five years, really hasn't done much. 561 00:37:53,159 --> 00:37:57,480 But what has is treasures what we've been talking about and that's where we 562 00:37:57,519 --> 00:38:00,280 can take advantage of. If you're scared of what's going on the market, 563 00:38:00,639 --> 00:38:02,840 you can buy treasuries, get that one year five point four percent, the 564 00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:07,880 two year at four point eight percent, three year at four point four percent. 565 00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,000 You can get that. That's the safest money you'll get. You'll get 566 00:38:10,039 --> 00:38:15,760 a guarantee percent or return of at least four point four percent over three years. 567 00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,760 And that's a better avenue, I think, in the sense of trying 568 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:21,679 to find safe money rather than putting all your money in gold, because you 569 00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,599 hear a lot about gold right now, and they're selling gold. Everybody's trying 570 00:38:23,599 --> 00:38:28,960 to sell gold because they're trying to sell fear all over the TV right exactly, 571 00:38:29,039 --> 00:38:31,840 and that's what's happening. People fall forward, and that happens because it's 572 00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:36,400 been like that for sixty years, and they're probably going back to the seventies 573 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,280 and eighties when it had a couple of years were jumped up high. But 574 00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:42,199 there are other avenues for safe money. If you're scared about what's going on 575 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,039 the market, and it's treasuries, and you hear it all the time, 576 00:38:45,079 --> 00:38:47,800 what happens if the government collapses? What does that guarantee mean, we're screwed. 577 00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,480 All more issues in theory for a minute, right, if the government 578 00:38:52,599 --> 00:38:58,400 collapses, your dollar, your gold, who's going to value it? We 579 00:38:58,519 --> 00:39:00,960 are now into a barbaric time if that happens. Yeah, it doesn't matter 580 00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,440 about your investments. And that's the idea. That's what we tell clients. 581 00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:07,480 It's like a lot more stuff is going on if the government is going to 582 00:39:07,519 --> 00:39:10,320 collapse and not pay your interests, which they pay, you know how much 583 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:14,840 they pay out a day and interests on treasuries they've I can't imagine one point 584 00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:19,400 three billion dollars three billion per day per day. Wow, And they're paying 585 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,840 it out and that's also I mean, that's part of our issue of having 586 00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,920 the debt. But they're paying it out and it is guaranteed and it is 587 00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,599 a place for safe money. If you're scared with what's going on if the 588 00:39:27,639 --> 00:39:30,320 government collapses, you need to find a gun, and you need to find 589 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,079 a cow. And then we hear what happens and they learn how to fish. 590 00:39:32,119 --> 00:39:35,800 If you don't know how exactly what happens. If the dollars not the 591 00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,400 world reserve currency anymore. Yeah, we've we've put this to bed. Multiple 592 00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:43,559 do that how many times because the dollar is actually gaining strength in terms of 593 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,440 total transactions done in it, and that's more fear from the news media. 594 00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:51,320 They're talking about bricks, which is China trying to make their own currency with 595 00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:58,480 Russia and Brazil and Saudi Arabia and Iran and at South Africa. Yeah, 596 00:39:58,599 --> 00:40:01,519 in South Africa, but it's not getting any theme. They're actually having issues 597 00:40:01,559 --> 00:40:05,480 with it. It's not being what they think it is. And the dollars 598 00:40:05,559 --> 00:40:08,559 still seventy seven percent of the world reserved, every currency ever, every transaction 599 00:40:08,599 --> 00:40:12,079 in the world. But if you just if you watch the headlines and you 600 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,320 just watch snippets of news, they're making it seem like we're the dollars almost 601 00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:20,199 about to be zero. So you got to do more research in order to 602 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,639 have like to see what's actually going on, you know, not chockingly. 603 00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:28,239 There was a lot of news, as there is every week in the electric 604 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:32,880 vehicle world. We had a truckmaker, Lordetown Motor, had dropped ninety percent 605 00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:37,519 in the last twelve months. They actually filed for bankruptcy. They had one 606 00:40:37,559 --> 00:40:42,159 of the coolest stock symbols ever, our Ide. Unfortunately, the cool stock 607 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,960 symbol was not enough and weren't able to write it out. And we've talked 608 00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:51,920 before about when you start buying electrics from Yeah, yeah, yeah, there 609 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,159 you go. I was trying to we're not dealing one that. I was 610 00:40:53,199 --> 00:40:57,079 trying to trying to let that go, but I couldn't let it go. 611 00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,800 Good job, good job. But it's again, if you're dealing with a 612 00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:05,119 electric vehicle, this a little bit on the fringe, like a Fisker, 613 00:41:05,599 --> 00:41:07,360 And I don't want to pick on Fisker. Have you ever seen a Fisker? 614 00:41:08,159 --> 00:41:12,039 Do you even know what a Fisker is? Just? I love how 615 00:41:12,079 --> 00:41:15,239 do you want to say it to Fisker license? So it's kind of an 616 00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:19,760 odd name. No, I have not seen a Fisker. Yeah, where 617 00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,320 are they in Tucson? Have you seen one? No? I've never seen 618 00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:22,960 a Fisker. And I go to that lake quite a bit. So, 619 00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:27,599 UM, I keep thinking I'll see one over there. If I do, 620 00:41:27,639 --> 00:41:29,599 I'll take a picture of it. I gotta I can't wait to see you 621 00:41:29,679 --> 00:41:31,280 know what? They look like? A riveting conversation? What else about you? 622 00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:36,480 These Tesla Tesla jump thirty percent in the last thirty days as it appears 623 00:41:36,519 --> 00:41:40,400 that their charging stations are becoming the gold standard. They do lose ground last 624 00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:45,440 week m after Golden Snacks joined several other firms in downgrading the stock stands too 625 00:41:45,519 --> 00:41:49,280 much, too fast. Your Tesla purchase didn't help them. Wish I can 626 00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,480 which I can relate to? Wish I can relate to. Right in the 627 00:41:51,519 --> 00:41:54,760 meantime, Volvo, you know, a Tesla maybe the gas station of the 628 00:41:54,840 --> 00:42:00,400 future, right because we've got GM wanting to use their charging stations. You 629 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:06,840 got Ford wanting to use their charging stations. Rivian joined and then this fast 630 00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,920 week it was Volvo. All of those companies want to want to use the 631 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:15,360 Tesla charging stations because they're dramatically faster. We've talked about a lot on the 632 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:20,840 shelf um and uh so they they're apparently going to become the gas station of 633 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:27,960 the future. Another electric car company, the Saudi Arabian sponsored EV maker Lucid. 634 00:42:29,159 --> 00:42:31,199 Saudi's own seventy percent of it, todd as he is smiling over there, 635 00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:37,639 but it is the Saudi Arabian lucidum down seventy percent in the last twelve 636 00:42:37,639 --> 00:42:39,960 months. They got to pop on Monday. Get this. They partner with 637 00:42:40,159 --> 00:42:46,199 Britain's Aston Martin, which is a very high end brand to supply Aston Martin 638 00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:53,599 with power trains and battery systems for electric cars. And seeing more Lucids around 639 00:42:53,639 --> 00:42:57,480 town. Yeah, unless it's the same one that I just constantly see. 640 00:42:57,519 --> 00:43:00,599 But there's there's ribvan pickup in town is cool look and pick up quite copper 641 00:43:00,639 --> 00:43:05,159 colored. Yeah, I've seen it about ten times too. I keep thinking 642 00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,719 it's something a new one. But I like the Riffian trucks are cool. 643 00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:09,760 I like that sweet. They get kind of a square, kind of a 644 00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:15,039 box filikt them. Yeah, the Riffian cars seem like lowrider cars. It 645 00:43:15,159 --> 00:43:17,159 seems like they're built to be the low rider cars. I haven't even wide. 646 00:43:19,519 --> 00:43:22,639 I haven't even seen one. I just saw the truck. But yeah, 647 00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,519 still it's still the ev market is still in the very beginning stages. 648 00:43:25,639 --> 00:43:30,800 It's constantly evolving, and any of your right, it's in the infancy. 649 00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:32,519 And I doubt Lords Town Motors is gonna be the only one that goes out. 650 00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,360 But Tesla's still far and above the leader, and we're learning that more 651 00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,360 because of the battery or the charging stations, the charging state. Who would 652 00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:44,599 have thought that the charging stations would become the big deal, you know, 653 00:43:44,679 --> 00:43:46,800 It makes sense because I think last year we were talking about Tesla's saying they 654 00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:51,199 haven't come out with a new model in years. Just really we're wondering why 655 00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,440 they haven't. The cyber truck has been put on hold for whatever reason. 656 00:43:53,519 --> 00:43:59,559 They're uh, commercial trucks aren't doing very well yet the stock is just on 657 00:43:59,639 --> 00:44:01,639 a tear, and we're wondering why, and we're seeing why aren't they coming 658 00:44:01,639 --> 00:44:06,280 out with new models? Why aren't they just trying to innovate more like that. 659 00:44:06,679 --> 00:44:08,559 It's because they're probably putting a lot of time and effort into the batters, 660 00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:15,119 charging stations and expanding that. I don't think anybody realized how significant that 661 00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,400 was going to be, except maybe somebody at Tesla. Huh. Yeah, 662 00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,599 they certainly have a lot of them around. And again the difference being that 663 00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,119 Level one, you plug it into the wall, takes you a couple of 664 00:44:25,199 --> 00:44:29,920 days to get enough juice to go to Phoenix, YEP. Level two you 665 00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,679 get a home charger. Level two you can charge your car overnight. Level 666 00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:37,920 three, which is Tesla, you charge when you're out on the freeway and 667 00:44:37,639 --> 00:44:40,920 trying to get from Tucson to San Diego and you stop in Yuma, and 668 00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,639 you get enough juice to get the rest of the way without the Tesla charger. 669 00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:51,920 There are very few level three chargers in the country. Yeah, and 670 00:44:52,119 --> 00:44:55,079 so that's why that's why they're so in demand, is because you don't want 671 00:44:55,119 --> 00:45:00,880 to sit in Yuma for five hours charging your electric cars. Yeah, it's 672 00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:05,079 not acceptable. So I think, hey, you guys were picking on older 673 00:45:05,119 --> 00:45:07,360 people. You know. Health insurance stocks have been under pressure for the past 674 00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:12,840 week after United Healthcare, their CEO came out and he said he's seen a 675 00:45:13,039 --> 00:45:19,599 dramatic increase in the elective surgeries, many of them orthopedic, and that has 676 00:45:19,639 --> 00:45:23,519 sent their stock down nine percent for the year. The whole industry has been 677 00:45:23,639 --> 00:45:30,559 under pressure. This is interesting. And then analyst at UBS Todd has done 678 00:45:30,599 --> 00:45:35,880 a deep dive into these numbers about these elective surgeries and he's blaming much of 679 00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:43,599 the increase on the meteoric rise in the popularity of pickle ball. So this 680 00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,679 need to have those knees and hips fixed so you can be your best pickleball 681 00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:53,400 player apparently is having it. This is a public service announcement that when you 682 00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:57,000 get past the age of twenty five, there's something called stretching, and you 683 00:45:57,079 --> 00:46:01,159 want to make sure you do that before actually do Yeah, I'm I'm a 684 00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:04,559 victim of that. I did not stretch before I worked out and I blew 685 00:46:04,599 --> 00:46:08,360 my kney out. I've I've never stretched in my life and that you've had 686 00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:14,679 problems. So just no, no, wait a second, My mental health 687 00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:22,559 has nothing to do with stretching. Please please do some stretching, especially when 688 00:46:22,599 --> 00:46:25,000 you're doing this type of you know, pickle ball. You you're planting your 689 00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:29,760 you know, your legs down in the ground hard when you're cutting and trying 690 00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,679 to get around the court. Do some stretching first. Stretching is super important 691 00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,760 and I had never done in my life. And the water, Yeah, 692 00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,679 water is good, thanks doctor Todd. Water and stretching, No stretching and 693 00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:43,800 stretching and super important. Especially so a lot of you out there are playing 694 00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:45,880 pickleball. I know, we know who you are. And uh, the 695 00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:51,000 pickle ball courts are full and you're keeping people up late at night and they're 696 00:46:51,039 --> 00:46:52,840 going up everywhere too. I was out of football tournament down at Keino a 697 00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:57,280 few weeks ago. Yeah, they probably have twenty pickleball courts, just pickleball 698 00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,920 like it wasn't old tennis courts. Or anything. Something popped them up for 699 00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:01,840 everybody to use his creat and they were packed at like eight years. Anyone 700 00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:05,719 wants to challenge us at pickle ball, I haven't even played in a couple 701 00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,239 of years, but I guarantee so you stretched, Yeah, because you stretched, 702 00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:10,760 so you'll be all right. Yeah. I've never played all yeah, 703 00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,039 whatever up a game. Okah, I've never played pickaball either, but I've 704 00:47:14,039 --> 00:47:16,800 got a bunch of friends who and seem to enjoy it. Seems like a 705 00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,800 fun game. Yeah, it seems like a fun game. And if you're 706 00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,280 one of those two guys that invented it in the backyard, their dog's name, 707 00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,840 his dog name was picked dog's name was Pickle. And I hope that 708 00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:30,599 Pickle's ball right though it started it. I hope that that they got something 709 00:47:30,639 --> 00:47:35,159 out of this, because it has become the rage. And we'll be back 710 00:47:35,599 --> 00:47:39,079 after this brief break with the second half of I promise you Johnson Stabilia will 711 00:47:39,119 --> 00:47:43,280 be here. He's run a little late. We'll look forward to Jonathan joining 712 00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:59,440 us on this beautiful Sunday morning talk to welcome back. This is our number 713 00:47:59,519 --> 00:48:02,119 two of the Money Matters Show. We're here on a beautiful Sunday morning, 714 00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:07,119 July second, getting ready for Independence Day, getting ready for half a day 715 00:48:07,159 --> 00:48:13,079 of work on Monday. Uh no, no work on Tuesday, probably very 716 00:48:13,119 --> 00:48:16,239 little work on Wednesday. Wait wait, wait wait, do you have any 717 00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:20,000 plans for the fourth I had a theme going there, right, I'm gonna 718 00:48:20,039 --> 00:48:24,199 celebrate our nation's independence doing what. Well, that's the secret. Please just 719 00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:28,119 eat a hot dog, you know, get a hot dog, eat a 720 00:48:28,159 --> 00:48:30,639 burger. In tradition, a hot dog a brought. We're an American bandanna 721 00:48:30,679 --> 00:48:34,760 burger, burger something to do something like that. Right, So it's a 722 00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,360 good holiday. It's a good holiday. It's gonna be probably be a warm 723 00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,039 day here. I didn't look at the will be forecast, but we can 724 00:48:40,119 --> 00:48:44,199 guarantee it's probably gonna be a hundred. That would be my guess. It 725 00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:47,079 will be interesting to see if the monsoon season, which the Weather Service a 726 00:48:47,159 --> 00:48:52,400 few years back just determined starts to June fifteenth, which is just complete bunk 727 00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:59,400 um. The I thought started to officially starts to June fifteenth. I think 728 00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,719 to September or fifteenth. Get over. That's not the like Douglas or something. 729 00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:06,400 It's ridiculous. Yeah, it's ridiculous. It's now. It doesn't start 730 00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:08,920 you in fifteenth, It starts the fourth of July. We know that everybody 731 00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:13,719 lives here knows that that's that's kind of the official kick off of the monsoons. 732 00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,639 And hopefully this year and the fourth of July, we'll be able to 733 00:49:16,679 --> 00:49:21,639 have some fireworks and then we'll have some heavenly fireworks that'll bring us a bunch 734 00:49:21,679 --> 00:49:25,000 of rain and we can we can start to start feeding the desert the water 735 00:49:25,199 --> 00:49:29,599 that it needs. We wish everyone a happy Independence Day. We'll hope you 736 00:49:29,639 --> 00:49:34,880 have fun with your family and friends and enjoy a real special holiday, and 737 00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:37,320 be careful with the fireworks. People. Am I gonna want to hear about 738 00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:40,519 no fingers being loss? So and then that happens every year, and it's 739 00:49:40,599 --> 00:49:44,559 in the shooting of the guns in the air. I know, you know 740 00:49:44,639 --> 00:49:46,119 who you are, not a smart thing. Stop doing that. That's not 741 00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:50,000 a smart thing to do. Those bulls have to come down, and they 742 00:49:50,079 --> 00:49:53,039 come down really fast and really hard, and they can kill people. You 743 00:49:53,159 --> 00:49:58,000 know, Just stop shooting the guns up in the air. And if it's 744 00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,679 you know, one of the one of the mysteries. First of all, 745 00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,679 first, just starting the second half, we recap the market. Yeah, 746 00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:07,800 let's do it. You know, the dial was up two percent this week, 747 00:50:07,039 --> 00:50:10,960 SMP two point three, NASDAC up two point two. Russell led the 748 00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,960 way at three point eight percent. But the interesting number to me is that 749 00:50:15,039 --> 00:50:19,079 equal weighted up three point three percent, about an extra point higher than the 750 00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:24,320 SMP five hundred. Obviously, the equal weighted SMP showing that the broad breadth 751 00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:30,880 of the market took off more so than just the more weighted stocks. So 752 00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:34,239 normally the Magnificent seven was leading the way, because year to date you see 753 00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:37,840 that the SMP five hundreds up sixteen percent and the equal weight is only up 754 00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:42,159 six But this week that equal weighted actually one out. Yeah, you actually 755 00:50:42,199 --> 00:50:45,159 did have other companies rather than just some Magnificent seven that did well. Last 756 00:50:45,159 --> 00:50:49,079 week. You see Eli Lily. Yeah, they had that phase two complete 757 00:50:49,119 --> 00:50:52,960 of their next weight loss drug called street name. No, it's uh second 758 00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:58,079 one True Tide and I don't also known as Triple G. Is that going 759 00:50:58,159 --> 00:51:01,159 to be an oral version of Manger that I didn't get? But that's that's 760 00:51:01,199 --> 00:51:06,039 a kicker. I think that's the key. Yeah, because ozempic and mojournal 761 00:51:06,119 --> 00:51:09,760 they're injectables, and there are people who don't like injectiles, it may be, 762 00:51:10,039 --> 00:51:14,320 but what they said about it is that people lost on average twenty four 763 00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,159 percent of body weight during the phase two trials, and if this can be 764 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:22,639 confirmed during the Phase three trials, which will be going until about late of 765 00:51:22,679 --> 00:51:27,719 twenty twenty five, this will probably be the most profitable drug ever, more 766 00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:31,320 so than their turns zepetide drug, which experts already think are going to be 767 00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:37,360 the most profitable drug ever, because if they can absolutely have people lose twenty 768 00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,800 four percent of their body fat body weight, the issue, Yeah, I 769 00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:44,440 wonder what it is. If it's like ozempic where you lose bone mass too. 770 00:51:44,639 --> 00:51:46,960 Oh yeah, no, I'm wondering if the drug does the same thing 771 00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:51,760 as ozempic. Why wouldn't it. I'm sure it's a similar chemistry. But 772 00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:55,519 anyway, a related story fiser Um weight loss drugs, of course, are 773 00:51:55,559 --> 00:51:59,639 all the rage. Fiser gave up on their attempt to get a weight loss 774 00:51:59,679 --> 00:52:05,280 drug give up on Monday Thursday, you know, Thursday, credit Swist decided 775 00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:08,079 that uh Fiser, which has just hit a two year low, was a 776 00:52:08,159 --> 00:52:13,880 good place to go from bye to hold. So you've had it as a 777 00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:17,079 bye for un till you hits a two year low and now you're going to 778 00:52:17,159 --> 00:52:22,119 go hold. Yeah, that's that's I love. That drives me crazy. 779 00:52:22,199 --> 00:52:25,039 Are just the best traders? What analysts are the best traders? I'm telling 780 00:52:25,079 --> 00:52:29,280 you that you know the stock. The stock has a pe of ten times, 781 00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:32,400 it has a dividend of four and a half percents. That looks safe. 782 00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:37,480 But I don't know where the catalyst is going to come from. We 783 00:52:37,599 --> 00:52:40,679 were sellers. We talked about it on the radio show back during the pandemic 784 00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:45,719 around the stock got into the mid fifties. We were saying, get out, 785 00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:49,079 get out, get out. We were twee me, the RSV vaccines 786 00:52:49,199 --> 00:52:52,440 not going to be the new catalyst. I'm thinking not, but we were. 787 00:52:52,559 --> 00:52:55,199 We were saying, you know, the time to get out. COVID's 788 00:52:55,199 --> 00:53:00,079 waning stock could probably return to the mid thirties, and guess what, that's 789 00:53:00,119 --> 00:53:05,039 where it is. I've got a feeling that looking at the stock momentum, 790 00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:10,960 looking at the competition, looking at just the general attitude towards Fiser, that 791 00:53:12,159 --> 00:53:15,880 you might actually have a chance to buy it in the high twenties, which 792 00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:19,719 I think would be a pretty attractive deal. You'd be looking at a dividend 793 00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,360 over five percent, you'd be looking at a price earn each racial under ten. 794 00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,920 I don't know, you're not gonna get rid, just not gonna double. 795 00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:31,480 But if you want to get a steady, predictable dividend with a relatively 796 00:53:31,519 --> 00:53:37,239 safe stock fiser under forty certainly looks attractive. We had we had a similar 797 00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:44,000 one that we were talking to about was Disney Miss down fifty five percent from 798 00:53:44,039 --> 00:53:46,960 Miss twenty twenty one high and down eleven percent in the last ninety days, 799 00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:51,800 and Key Bank says enough, they're going to move from a buy to hold. 800 00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,960 All these analysts you know, oh my god, the stock has dropped, 801 00:53:55,079 --> 00:53:59,159 you know, eighty percent, seventy percent, let's go to hold. 802 00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:02,159 I wonder why they're always so late to the saying that stuff and that Disney 803 00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:07,159 again, we talked about that when we've been we've been fans of Disney and 804 00:54:07,159 --> 00:54:10,400 we've been wrong. But when it gapped lower, when it dropped from like 805 00:54:10,519 --> 00:54:15,719 one o eight to ninety eight back on earnings, we said, you're you're 806 00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:17,639 probably going to get a chance to buy it in the mid eighties. Not 807 00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:22,280 to buy it there when you see a big gap down like that, don't 808 00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:27,440 ever buy those big gaps down nine out of ten or maybe nineteen out of 809 00:54:27,519 --> 00:54:30,440 twenty, that's not the bottom. That's actually happened twice with Disney too. 810 00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:34,239 In the last couple of years. It went from about one fifty five to 811 00:54:34,599 --> 00:54:37,760 gap down to one forty, and then it dropped to one twenty, and 812 00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:39,000 then it stayed around there, and then it did the same gap, but 813 00:54:39,199 --> 00:54:43,599 down from one oway to ninety eight. And there's really a lot of interest 814 00:54:43,679 --> 00:54:45,880 when the stock gaps like that. Oh my god, look at that guy. 815 00:54:45,199 --> 00:54:47,360 I gotta buy that. You gotta get in. And what will happen 816 00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:51,119 is that will create a little bit of a pop. You generally get a 817 00:54:51,159 --> 00:54:52,760 pop off the bottom, could be as much as a five, maybe even 818 00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:57,760 ten percent pop. But that's not the bottom. Yeah, let things settled 819 00:54:57,800 --> 00:55:00,039 down, yet still have the opportunity to buy it. It typically takes three 820 00:55:00,079 --> 00:55:05,159 to six months after a gap like that for a market for a stock to 821 00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,719 establish a new low. Yeah, a new base if you will. I'm 822 00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:10,800 still I'm still a believer in Disney, though. I think Bob Eyer coming 823 00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:15,400 back, he drove the company to all time highs. He did a really 824 00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:17,519 good job when he was the full time CEO for about twenty years. He 825 00:55:17,639 --> 00:55:21,039 came back a couple of years ago. Now he's trying to kind of redo 826 00:55:21,159 --> 00:55:24,599 what they were kind of undoing when the other Bob for Chef Pecker how you 827 00:55:24,639 --> 00:55:30,199 say his name. Park traffic is strong, Yeah, they're opening in new 828 00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:35,599 parks. The streaming service is strong. The cruise lines. The cruise line 829 00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:38,000 is really picked up steam. The big thing about their streaming service, though, 830 00:55:38,119 --> 00:55:40,280 is what they're gonna need. They're going to continue to need to build 831 00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:44,760 original content because the nostalgia only lasts was so long. Where you're going to 832 00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:46,000 go on Disney Plus all the time. That's a good point. It's just 833 00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:49,159 I mean, you'll do it for the holidays, you'll do it every once 834 00:55:49,199 --> 00:55:51,679 in a while, but it's not going to be the constant traffic if you 835 00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:55,039 don't create original content other than that, which they have some. But they're 836 00:55:55,079 --> 00:56:00,000 basing it off of spinoffs of Star Wars, off of this franchise that did 837 00:56:00,079 --> 00:56:04,199 well in that franchise, they're kind of hanging on to people's nostalgia that's just 838 00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:07,079 won't last forever. No, that's exactly right. I like that. And 839 00:56:07,159 --> 00:56:10,000 the cruise line business, of course, we don't have their numbers, they're 840 00:56:10,039 --> 00:56:15,039 not carved out separately. But Carnival has doubled this year. Carnival Cruise Line 841 00:56:15,079 --> 00:56:19,920 has doubled this year. Gained another ten percent on Wednesday to a new fifty 842 00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,719 two week high after reporting a quarterly loss. It was smaller than expected, 843 00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:25,800 but the issue a strong guidance. I said, people are still wanting to 844 00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:32,599 travel. We're booked up. And the biggest problem with the cruise lines after 845 00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:37,840 the pandemic is not getting back in business, but getting back in business and 846 00:56:37,119 --> 00:56:42,639 charging full price. That's the issue. Yeah. Yes, they had to 847 00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,320 get back in business. They had to discount. You just give those cruises 848 00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:50,320 away, and so many of my friends took advantage of it. Home. 849 00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,039 Oh man, there's people that like, if you bought one full price cruise 850 00:56:52,079 --> 00:56:54,760 before they had to shut down and you still had to take it, they 851 00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:58,159 would offer you like another free cruise, if not more. Oh man, 852 00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:00,800 They're just trying to get you back on so that it's safe. That's kind 853 00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:02,480 of stopped, that's kind of winding down now, and so they're getting back 854 00:57:02,519 --> 00:57:07,840 to a more normal and Carnival Cruise line stock is I think it was eighteen 855 00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:09,800 and a half on Friday. Yeah, it's been as high as forty forty 856 00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:13,800 five fifty in the last two or three years, so it's got a ways 857 00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:17,119 to go yet. And of course Disney has a cruise line as well, 858 00:57:19,239 --> 00:57:22,920 the streaming service. You make an outstanding point about new content. You need 859 00:57:22,039 --> 00:57:25,880 new content. Yeah, but as people savings get depleted, which we've talked 860 00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:30,840 about last week, those travels are not going to happen as much, right, 861 00:57:30,199 --> 00:57:36,280 And so I would really expect next year the travel season for cruises are 862 00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:38,719 just not as robust as they are this season because there's not going to be 863 00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:43,840 as much savings. I think my concern with Disney and Fiser both is what 864 00:57:44,239 --> 00:57:46,440 is the catalyst, what's gonna make those stocks go? Yeah, I don't 865 00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:49,719 know. I don't agree with that though, because cruises, once you pay 866 00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:52,280 for your cruise, a lot of it's all included. If you go to 867 00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:53,360 other hotels, you pay for the hotel, then you gotta pay for food, 868 00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:55,320 then you gotta pay for amusements. How you got to pay for the 869 00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:59,800 cruise the first place. I was saying you're gonna do it trips, Yeah, 870 00:58:00,079 --> 00:58:01,559 to say, I don't. I think it's gonna be a little better 871 00:58:01,599 --> 00:58:05,000 than you. But it's not. But economically it's not a bad deal, 872 00:58:05,079 --> 00:58:07,079 that's what you're saying, Joe. Yeah, right, you're gonna do a 873 00:58:07,159 --> 00:58:12,039 trip versus going to Portugal and and what grands said, Ireland hotel. Yeah, 874 00:58:12,199 --> 00:58:16,119 that's my parents. They do their own thing. So we had little 875 00:58:16,159 --> 00:58:19,559 news on home prices. Did you see that, Todd? Yeah, they 876 00:58:19,639 --> 00:58:22,199 both were a little better than expectations. Well, I saw pending home sales 877 00:58:22,239 --> 00:58:25,440 and new homesales number you referring new homesales rose for the third Well, this 878 00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:29,039 is pending home sales. I'm sorry, rose for the third strade month in 879 00:58:29,119 --> 00:58:32,599 April. They're just two point four percent below the peak. I mean May, 880 00:58:32,719 --> 00:58:37,119 not April, that's no April. The case Shillers is a lagger. 881 00:58:37,199 --> 00:58:42,000 I was gonna say, yeah, home sales for May also was above expectations, 882 00:58:42,039 --> 00:58:44,960 but the case Shiller report runs six weeks behind, right, So I 883 00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,239 don't know who who's your word you're looking at? But but yeah, the 884 00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:52,480 I thought it was finally interesting. It's only two point four percent below the 885 00:58:52,639 --> 00:58:57,079 June twenty two peak. I was in prices. But we know why. 886 00:58:57,159 --> 00:59:00,599 We've talked about it, right, We've talked about a lot about how people 887 00:59:00,719 --> 00:59:07,400 are just simply coveting their mortgage rate, not their house. I don't necessarily 888 00:59:07,480 --> 00:59:09,480 love their house, but but you love their mortgage rate. Yeah? Where 889 00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:13,599 else? How could you not? People with mortgage race under three percent? 890 00:59:13,639 --> 00:59:15,920 How could you not love that? Yeah? You know, yeah, they're 891 00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:17,280 not gonna get rid of that house. They're gonna just put stuff, put 892 00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:21,599 money into it to remodel it. Right. So, however, housing price 893 00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,119 is going to be going down if you have nobody selling. I had had 894 00:59:25,119 --> 00:59:30,159 a house come on the market in my neighborhood, and full disclosure, my 895 00:59:30,199 --> 00:59:37,960 neighborhood is a fairly desirable neighborhood Ford Lol, historic district. And this house 896 00:59:38,079 --> 00:59:42,360 came on the market. It's sold within twenty four hours full price. Yeah, 897 00:59:42,599 --> 00:59:45,800 I mean this was last week. There's no inventory. There's no inventory 898 00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:50,440 to that Todd. That's exactly right, no inventory. So if you want 899 00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:54,480 to house, you either got to luck out drive by when the signs going 900 00:59:54,559 --> 00:59:58,800 up again twenty four hours, or new home, or you buy a new 901 00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:00,360 home. And a lot of those new home you know, we saw KB 902 01:00:00,480 --> 01:00:04,119 home. I think it reached a new fifty two week kaigh, And I'm 903 01:00:04,119 --> 01:00:08,760 not mistaken these new home builders are really benefiting off the lack of inventory because 904 01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:12,519 they kind of are forced into the new homes and they're giving them a lot 905 01:00:12,559 --> 01:00:15,159 of deals. They're buying down interest rates, they're offering you know, free 906 01:00:15,679 --> 01:00:20,800 appliances like you know, the fridges and all that. So it makes it 907 01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:23,000 a lot more attractive. Free blinds. A lot of those costs that come 908 01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:27,800 that don't aren't associated with the pending home sales. Right with the new home 909 01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:30,199 sales, you do have to there's a lot more costs associated, but with 910 01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:34,920 the new home buyers already paying those that those costs for you makes it a 911 01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:37,039 lot more attractive as well. I think one of the things we were looking 912 01:00:37,079 --> 01:00:45,760 at to see the economy and inflation frankly slow was a fairly significant decline in 913 01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:50,480 the housing market, and that just simply has not happened. I don't know 914 01:00:50,559 --> 01:00:53,719 how inflation has gone from nine point one to four. Yeah, with the 915 01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:59,079 housing market continuing to be strong. Did you see the pc PC report that 916 01:00:59,559 --> 01:01:04,079 on front Personal You want to explain what PC is versus CPI? Yeah, 917 01:01:04,119 --> 01:01:07,800 So CPI is the consumer price index that's the one that everyone knows and hears 918 01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:12,159 about on the news, the one that's not reported because I really don't know 919 01:01:12,239 --> 01:01:15,280 why, but it's it's it's just not for whatever reason, it does not 920 01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:17,960 get headline. It doesn't I think because they don't understand it. Maybe it's 921 01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:27,440 the price consumers price that the consumer expenditure, personal consumers consum It works similar 922 01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:30,280 to the CPI. It's just it's the FEDS calculation of inflation. That's the 923 01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:35,599 one they use to make their economic decisions based on well. And the difference 924 01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:40,159 is the Consumer Price Index is what consumers pay for things. The Personal Consumption 925 01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:46,559 indexes is what everybody pays for everything. And the example I think that it 926 01:01:46,760 --> 01:01:52,719 is the most clear is health insurance. Excuse me, medical bills. If 927 01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:57,119 you go to a hospital and spend two weeks in a hospital and have one 928 01:01:57,159 --> 01:02:01,360 hundred thousand dollars bill um, you might pay five thousand of that. So 929 01:02:01,519 --> 01:02:06,719 the five thousand is in the Consumer Price Index, the hundred thousand is in 930 01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:08,840 the Personal Consumption Index. Yeah. And the thing that stood out to me 931 01:02:08,920 --> 01:02:13,599 on these numbers was the core PC came in at four point six percent, 932 01:02:13,679 --> 01:02:16,960 I believe, and then the regular PC which includes food and energy, was 933 01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:21,360 at three point eight Yeah, so it was much lower than the one that 934 01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:25,880 excluded food and energy out of its calculation. The good news is we're seeing 935 01:02:27,039 --> 01:02:31,400 a steady decline in inflation. Yes, both on the retail level and on 936 01:02:31,519 --> 01:02:36,760 the personal level, and from a number of different metrics. It's just not 937 01:02:36,920 --> 01:02:38,519 one number and you say, wow, that's not a good number. You 938 01:02:38,599 --> 01:02:44,639 know that's wrong. But you know, if you're one of those investors who 939 01:02:45,159 --> 01:02:50,079 has this goldilocks bowl rally in your head, you need inflation to kind of 940 01:02:50,119 --> 01:02:53,400 stay up right because that means the economy keeps growing. So he wants to 941 01:02:53,480 --> 01:02:57,119 find your earnings. Yeah, you want a degree of inflation. That's why 942 01:02:57,159 --> 01:03:00,599 the fedge target is two. Yeah, so you do want some flation because 943 01:03:00,599 --> 01:03:02,679 if we go into deflation, that's where we really start to see problems in 944 01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:07,639 corporate profits and that's when valuations really really matter. That's bad, Yeah, 945 01:03:07,679 --> 01:03:12,599 that's bad. M with the regional banks. So we talked about the back 946 01:03:12,679 --> 01:03:15,519 in March. You mentioned the banks of the three banks failing, and of 947 01:03:15,599 --> 01:03:20,440 course for a period of time after that, late March into April, it 948 01:03:20,639 --> 01:03:23,079 was kind of walking on egg shells. Nobody wanted to be along the market 949 01:03:23,159 --> 01:03:25,519 on Friday because you didn't know who was going to go under. Over the 950 01:03:25,599 --> 01:03:30,199 weekend and nobody has. No other banks have gone under. That's not to 951 01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:36,880 say that banks aren't struggling. But the kr which is the Regional bank exchange 952 01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:40,360 traded Fund. I watched that pretty closely. It includes a lot of different 953 01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:46,280 regional banks. It continues to rebound up a twenty percent off of the May 954 01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:52,679 loll. Yeah. So that's that's telling you that the market at least is 955 01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:57,800 getting comfortable that we may have seen the end of the regional banking crisis. 956 01:03:57,920 --> 01:04:00,559 It's very possible. And while we spend time on banks, this week, 957 01:04:00,639 --> 01:04:05,800 the FED did their stress test on banks. This is I believe they only 958 01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:10,159 do this once or twice a year, twice a year, twice a year 959 01:04:10,519 --> 01:04:15,960 three right, And so the FED established this test in following the twenty seven 960 01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:19,239 two thousand and nine financial crisis. They formerly began in two thousan eleven. 961 01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:23,280 And it's really just the Fed's way to make sure that the banks are properly 962 01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:27,519 capitalized to avoid any crazy scenario like we saw in two thousand and eight. 963 01:04:27,639 --> 01:04:30,960 So they kind of test against what happens if corporate real estate mortgages at banks 964 01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:33,559 have on their balance. See what happens if they lose thirty percent value? 965 01:04:33,599 --> 01:04:38,760 Do they have enough capital reserves to make sure that their obligations are satisfied? 966 01:04:39,159 --> 01:04:43,679 And again all the banks passed this time in this bank test, but it's 967 01:04:43,719 --> 01:04:47,039 not they don't test regional banks, so they actually the only test I believe 968 01:04:47,119 --> 01:04:51,039 it was twenty three banks this year, three major banks, which was down 969 01:04:51,280 --> 01:04:55,400 from previous year. I mean in twenty twenty two is thirty four banks. 970 01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:59,440 And they changed the test a little bit this year. They put a little 971 01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:01,159 bit more. Um. It's harder to pass the test, they say, 972 01:05:01,639 --> 01:05:05,800 because they put into some criteria that normally isn't in there is what happens when 973 01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:11,000 interest rates increased super fast? Right, and that that wasn't something that was 974 01:05:11,119 --> 01:05:15,000 included in previous tests. But the test that was formed this year was done 975 01:05:15,119 --> 01:05:20,880 before the March crisis, so they weren't They didn't know anything about the banks 976 01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:25,559 when they formulated this test. And just so anyone knows, in order to 977 01:05:25,639 --> 01:05:29,000 be tested, you have to have between one hundred billion and two hundred and 978 01:05:29,320 --> 01:05:34,960 fifty billion in assets, okay to major banks. Yes, And that's then 979 01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:39,199 when people are like, well, I couldn't have fed know that the the 980 01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:41,320 regional banks were going to do this. Well, they don't test them, 981 01:05:41,639 --> 01:05:45,360 right, that's more on the regional fed level, because regional feds people don't 982 01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:48,559 know there's it's do you have the overall fed or reserve. But it's a 983 01:05:48,639 --> 01:05:54,679 board of governors and a governor has each region of America and they all come 984 01:05:54,760 --> 01:05:57,880 and help make the decision on the interest rate policy. Well, hope that 985 01:05:58,000 --> 01:06:00,760 that there's no longer, although you know it's interesting. I do have clients 986 01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:04,000 ask about it from time to time, Ask about the regional banks, ask 987 01:06:04,079 --> 01:06:09,960 about insurance, that sort of thing. We are pleased to hear the report 988 01:06:10,039 --> 01:06:15,800 that our insurance from our clearing from OURBC is one hundred million dollars per acount 989 01:06:16,039 --> 01:06:20,320 yep. And so if you have more than that, we probably can't help 990 01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:27,239 you. Yeah. One of the one of the stocks that's a mystery to 991 01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:31,320 me. Maybe you guys can figure this out for me. Occidental Petroleum is 992 01:06:31,639 --> 01:06:38,960 a lagging stock. Warren Buffett continues to buy the stock. He now owns 993 01:06:39,039 --> 01:06:42,480 twenty five percent of the company. He's been buying it so much and so 994 01:06:42,679 --> 01:06:45,360 long that when he announces he's bought more, nobody cares anymore. They yawn 995 01:06:45,519 --> 01:06:51,400 and stock is down six percent over the last twelve months. It is trading 996 01:06:51,480 --> 01:06:57,360 at the same price that it was in two thousand and seven, the same 997 01:06:57,440 --> 01:06:59,880 price as it was in two thousand and seven. You think he's just try 998 01:07:00,159 --> 01:07:01,559 years ago. You think he's just trying to buy it all. Eventually, 999 01:07:02,239 --> 01:07:06,840 the PE is not extraordinary dealing. It's twelve point five Chevron and Xon or 1000 01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:12,440 eleven. So the PE is a little higher than the Chevron Xon dividends only 1001 01:07:12,519 --> 01:07:16,840 one point two x three point four Chevron three point nine. Makes you wonder 1002 01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:20,039 what he's season it. I mean, it's the high pe, low dividend, 1003 01:07:20,559 --> 01:07:26,840 low growth. I wish I knew, I knew I see a value 1004 01:07:26,840 --> 01:07:29,760 investor. He's a value investor. But I will say that he's been buying 1005 01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:33,039 the stock for You're right that that segment of the market is out of favor. 1006 01:07:33,159 --> 01:07:39,960 But then wouldn't you say that as Chevron and Xon are also value plays. 1007 01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:43,800 That's why I tried to compare apples and apples here, and if you 1008 01:07:43,960 --> 01:07:47,880 take all of the apples, Warren's Apple seems to have the most holes. 1009 01:07:48,679 --> 01:07:51,079 Yeah, but you know, if you're going to ask a group of people, 1010 01:07:51,199 --> 01:07:56,440 which are these companies? Do you know Chevron x Oxydental Petroleum. It's 1011 01:07:56,480 --> 01:08:00,440 like, that's the last one. I think it's more so probably people know 1012 01:08:00,559 --> 01:08:03,880 the name Chevron Exellon a lot more, I guess. I guess I keep 1013 01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:09,320 asking myself, what's Warren c here? And that's what I'm wondering, And 1014 01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:12,320 you're one of the same thing. Yeah, I thought, guys have some 1015 01:08:12,400 --> 01:08:15,119 brilliant idea. But if you want to buy something that Warren Buffett is buying 1016 01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:20,960 that hasn't gone crazy, oxygenal patrol him apparently is available talk in a year 1017 01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:25,600 and it's gonna be up like you would think. I mean, he's a 1018 01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:30,239 excellent investor, has a big group of people working with him. They're seeing 1019 01:08:30,359 --> 01:08:33,720 something in oxy that I'm not seeing. They must. Yeah, Amazon, 1020 01:08:34,159 --> 01:08:38,560 mid March, the stock was mired in the eighties. Remember that. Back 1021 01:08:38,600 --> 01:08:41,439 in mid March you couldn't give it away. I mean, the socket dropped 1022 01:08:41,479 --> 01:08:45,840 from one hundred and fifty to eighty. And they had seen their day that 1023 01:08:45,960 --> 01:08:49,640 Walmart's going to do with the competition and Target and you know they're having to 1024 01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:54,359 pay too much, they're gonna unionize, and it's all that. Their web 1025 01:08:54,520 --> 01:08:58,640 services business, which is what drives the company, was slowing and you know, 1026 01:08:59,119 --> 01:09:01,199 why would we want to do that? Everything was bad news And now 1027 01:09:01,319 --> 01:09:04,600 just like that, it's at one thirty and along came AI. Yep, 1028 01:09:05,159 --> 01:09:10,239 along came artificial intelligence, and it has literally been off to the races ever 1029 01:09:10,279 --> 01:09:15,760 since. Stocks risen thirty two percent in the last thirty days thirty two. 1030 01:09:15,199 --> 01:09:21,039 This is why we scratch our heads and hesitate and have talk about irrational exuperance. 1031 01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:27,399 Thirty two percent in thirty days for a for one of the largest companies 1032 01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:30,760 in the world. You know, it's been Another company that's been quietly on 1033 01:09:30,880 --> 01:09:34,000 a rise is Spotify. Yes do you Spotify? Do not? I do? 1034 01:09:34,119 --> 01:09:38,239 Do you Spotify? Or Apple Music? I used Spotify for podcasts. 1035 01:09:38,399 --> 01:09:41,279 Yeah, so I used Spotify all the time. And it's been up. 1036 01:09:41,319 --> 01:09:43,960 So it's low. It's fifty two week low of sixty nine dollars. It's 1037 01:09:44,000 --> 01:09:47,039 currently at as a Friday was about one fifty two. It's more than doubled 1038 01:09:47,079 --> 01:09:50,439 in the last year. And what they did right now in the last week 1039 01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:55,079 was do a huge overhaul of their platform on the computer and the app. 1040 01:09:55,439 --> 01:09:59,079 They added AI. They added like an AI DJ so they started using they 1041 01:09:59,239 --> 01:10:03,239 dove full in into AI and they finally put it out and it works great. 1042 01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:06,920 But they've been on the rise pretty much not stopped for the last fifty 1043 01:10:06,920 --> 01:10:12,279 two weeks. And since it's it debuted, it's still under its IPO price 1044 01:10:12,319 --> 01:10:15,399 of one sixty three, but it's been climbing back and no one I don't 1045 01:10:15,399 --> 01:10:16,720 see it on the news. It almost it's just been doing this thing, 1046 01:10:17,319 --> 01:10:21,039 and I think part of it is because of the AI. Yeah, it's 1047 01:10:21,039 --> 01:10:27,640 amazing. We don't have any idea as we sit here on July second, 1048 01:10:28,920 --> 01:10:32,600 how much AI is going to impact us. Well, they say it grows 1049 01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:36,640 exponentially too, so I mean how fast it grew in the last year ten 1050 01:10:36,720 --> 01:10:43,760 years from agatively and negatively. Yeah. It wasn't a positive and negative that's 1051 01:10:43,760 --> 01:10:48,159 for sure. Yeah, well it makes life easier, but it's probably so 1052 01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:51,920 that's kind of ironic, right, We've going positive and negative in an electric 1053 01:10:53,000 --> 01:10:58,720 vehicle world batteries. Oh, I was trying not to laugh. I was 1054 01:10:58,720 --> 01:11:00,479 just trying to go on and move on that one. But right along, 1055 01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:06,760 wasn't that wasn't that AI that taught the robots how to play soccer? Yeah? 1056 01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:10,840 Remember that? That's scary. Well, it's like the I Robot movies 1057 01:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,880 coming alive, from Will Smith's movie back in the early two thousands, they 1058 01:11:13,960 --> 01:11:16,079 taught these it can be scary these robots start having a mind of their own. 1059 01:11:16,239 --> 01:11:20,079 They did this one where it was a drone was they were trying to 1060 01:11:20,119 --> 01:11:24,000 shoot things down and doing a test and stuff, and then they started it 1061 01:11:24,039 --> 01:11:26,960 started kind of getting out of control. So the control tower trying to shut 1062 01:11:27,039 --> 01:11:30,520 it off and say don't shoot this, and then the drone they said in 1063 01:11:30,600 --> 01:11:33,760 like different words, obviously it got mad and started aiming at the tower to 1064 01:11:33,880 --> 01:11:36,199 shut it off because that's the person that was telling it to not do it, 1065 01:11:36,560 --> 01:11:40,520 so they could go rogue. Yeah, that's crazy. Well, I 1066 01:11:40,560 --> 01:11:45,560 mean when you when you teach these robots how to play basic soccer and then 1067 01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:48,920 they somehow teach each other how to play it. Well, that's like, 1068 01:11:49,079 --> 01:11:54,680 are you serious, room, I'm more scared of humans. But if you 1069 01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:58,239 really want to get scared, you can watch black Mirror on Netflix. Black 1070 01:11:58,359 --> 01:12:00,479 Mirror. Yeah, and that will make you feel a full lud eight. 1071 01:12:00,640 --> 01:12:03,399 You will be up. You will never want to touch another phone again. 1072 01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:06,000 Well, I get scared to death every morning when I look in the white 1073 01:12:06,000 --> 01:12:11,439 mirror, So we don't need a black mirror for that. We'll be back 1074 01:12:13,119 --> 01:12:15,640 with a couple more segments right after this break. Thanks again for going. 1075 01:12:16,720 --> 01:12:21,800 Say it's a welcome back. You're listening to the Money Matter Show. It's 1076 01:12:21,800 --> 01:12:27,359 been a jam packed show with a great end of the second quarter, and 1077 01:12:27,439 --> 01:12:30,319 we're gonna start the third quarter coming up tomorrow with a half day, and 1078 01:12:30,359 --> 01:12:33,159 then we do have Tuesday off or fourth of July, our country's birthday. 1079 01:12:33,359 --> 01:12:38,800 It's gonna be fun. But this segment we have Jonathan Sabilia of Edward Law 1080 01:12:38,880 --> 01:12:41,800 Firm. We got talking about I think we're gonna be talking about power, 1081 01:12:42,039 --> 01:12:45,479 durable power of attorney and all that stuff in the state planning world. He's 1082 01:12:45,479 --> 01:12:46,920 a great estate planner and just teamed up with him a few months ago. 1083 01:12:47,000 --> 01:12:50,359 So how you doing, John Good Dylan, thank you very well. Happy 1084 01:12:50,439 --> 01:12:55,039 fourth tomorrow. You got any fun plans for the fourth on Tuesday? Tuesday? 1085 01:12:55,119 --> 01:12:58,920 Excuse me? Any fun plans? Just making sure the kids stay safe 1086 01:12:58,960 --> 01:13:00,399 and get to see some fireworks. You get a couple of young kids, 1087 01:13:00,439 --> 01:13:05,000 so that's a try to keep the Yeah, and we live in the desert, 1088 01:13:05,079 --> 01:13:08,359 so we had to worry. I want to buy my own fireworks, 1089 01:13:08,399 --> 01:13:12,039 but I'm afraid that everything's gonna go up and fire around the house. I've 1090 01:13:12,079 --> 01:13:15,000 live been a heavily wooded area, and my biggest concern is fireworks been shot 1091 01:13:15,039 --> 01:13:17,600 off and getting in the trees. Yeah, and you and you take care 1092 01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:20,640 of your lawns, so we don't want that to go up in flames. 1093 01:13:20,720 --> 01:13:25,439 Well, no, and the trees. Uh, there's hundreds of trees in 1094 01:13:25,560 --> 01:13:28,800 my area. I live again for a little historic district, but down by 1095 01:13:28,840 --> 01:13:31,399 the river, so there's a lot of it's very heavily wooded. And I 1096 01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:35,399 always won every fourth of joy. I always hold my breath that sparks don't 1097 01:13:35,439 --> 01:13:38,720 get in the trees and start something, because you get a couple of trees 1098 01:13:38,760 --> 01:13:41,600 on fire, you could have all hell breaklets down there, just like down 1099 01:13:41,880 --> 01:13:45,640 about sixty miles south of here, Sierra Vista. Yeah, yeah, I 1100 01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:48,880 didn't you know that got so little coverage, which is shot can To me, 1101 01:13:49,000 --> 01:13:51,960 you could almost see the smoke that shot. Yeah, they did. 1102 01:13:53,279 --> 01:13:58,479 There were houses threatened, our people's evacuated. Um, your wife were forded 1103 01:13:58,520 --> 01:14:01,239 on it, right, So what she did? She she reported on a 1104 01:14:01,279 --> 01:14:04,840 few She's the one that brought it to my attention. So because you know, 1105 01:14:05,479 --> 01:14:08,479 she's in the news and I don't watch a lot of the news, 1106 01:14:08,560 --> 01:14:12,279 so I get it firsthand from her when she comes home after a long day 1107 01:14:12,359 --> 01:14:15,920 and she was telling me about how she reported on the on the fires around 1108 01:14:15,960 --> 01:14:19,680 Arizona. But it's it's nothing uncommon. We have fires here every year, 1109 01:14:19,720 --> 01:14:23,680 but it is uncommon for it to be so close, so close to a 1110 01:14:23,760 --> 01:14:30,279 residence, to residences Tucson up north by Prescott. Yeah so, but you 1111 01:14:30,359 --> 01:14:34,279 know, um jo, I should mention that Jonathan has his own law firm. 1112 01:14:34,760 --> 01:14:41,560 You're not a Greenberg Financial employee or a self employed lawyer who is domiciled 1113 01:14:42,159 --> 01:14:46,520 within the beautiful office of Greenberg Financial. Yeah, it's it's been great. 1114 01:14:46,560 --> 01:14:50,600 I appreciate it. I have a spot over here that uh, you know, 1115 01:14:50,760 --> 01:14:55,840 working alongside you guys, not with you, but alongside and see what 1116 01:14:55,960 --> 01:14:59,039 you guys do on a day to day basis pretty inspiring and it's it's good 1117 01:14:59,079 --> 01:15:01,720 to see. It's it's nice to have people I could bounce some ideas off 1118 01:15:01,800 --> 01:15:05,239 of in an area that I don't um, you know, I'm not always 1119 01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:10,600 up to date on right then you've been meeting with our clients. So we've 1120 01:15:10,640 --> 01:15:14,239 been meeting with some of your clients. It's a wonderful relationship we got going. 1121 01:15:14,760 --> 01:15:18,560 Uh first consultation with you is free. Correct. So someone that's considering 1122 01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:25,159 a trust or considering a will. Uh, you have a state planning abilities, 1123 01:15:25,239 --> 01:15:31,000 you have tax knowledge, uh knowledge, and you're an attorney who specializes 1124 01:15:31,079 --> 01:15:38,119 in taxation. So you know a lot of things that uh the average attorney 1125 01:15:38,439 --> 01:15:44,199 uh god bless them, uh doesn't deal with. So we we appreciate having 1126 01:15:44,279 --> 01:15:46,319 you nearby. What's on your what's on your plate, what you been working 1127 01:15:46,359 --> 01:15:49,399 on, what's on my list of things to talk about? Um, well, 1128 01:15:49,520 --> 01:15:53,279 we'll get to the durable power of attorney next. I just wanted I 1129 01:15:53,399 --> 01:15:58,039 did a cl this morning and they were talking about the Secure Act. I 1130 01:15:58,079 --> 01:16:00,199 know you guys talk about it a lot because it's uh it's very close to 1131 01:16:00,479 --> 01:16:06,840 your heart uh in your industry. But the uh continuing legal legal education. 1132 01:16:08,079 --> 01:16:12,159 Okay, So, and we're required to have a bunch done by June June 1133 01:16:12,239 --> 01:16:15,399 thirtieth, which is tomorrow. So I'm cramming a little bit for so I'm 1134 01:16:15,439 --> 01:16:19,720 getting a couple uh uh some of those classes in, but actually had to 1135 01:16:19,760 --> 01:16:27,159 have it done by June thirtieth. June thirtieth Friday, right June thirties is 1136 01:16:27,159 --> 01:16:34,079 tomorrow, right, No, June thirtieth was Friday today today, exactly Friday. 1137 01:16:34,359 --> 01:16:38,119 Well, we're on the honor system here in Arizona, so I just 1138 01:16:38,239 --> 01:16:42,319 have to have it done by June thirtieth, which was Friday. So you 1139 01:16:42,600 --> 01:16:45,680 saying you got it done was enough, Like, well, I did get 1140 01:16:45,720 --> 01:16:47,439 it done. I did a bunch of ethics ones. But I'm you know, 1141 01:16:47,600 --> 01:16:50,079 just making sure, you know, I stay on top of things. 1142 01:16:50,159 --> 01:16:55,520 And this was a CLI that I was really interested in learning about. Um 1143 01:16:55,720 --> 01:17:02,000 so um. But with that said, um timing aside, Uh, you 1144 01:17:02,039 --> 01:17:04,479 know, I thought was really interesting on it. They were talking about five 1145 01:17:04,479 --> 01:17:09,199 to twenty nine plans and now that they get to roll those, if you 1146 01:17:09,279 --> 01:17:12,680 have it for fifteen years, you can roll that into a Roth now, 1147 01:17:13,239 --> 01:17:15,159 yeah, and Matt Roth, it gets rolled into the kid's name, into 1148 01:17:15,239 --> 01:17:17,520 the kid's name. It gets rolled into the kid's name, not the parents 1149 01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:20,520 name. I thought that was really interesting. And uh, you know, 1150 01:17:20,560 --> 01:17:27,399 obviously they're bumping up the required minimum distributions from seventy two to seventy three now, 1151 01:17:27,479 --> 01:17:30,600 and then the penalties will go down from fifty percent to twenty five percent. 1152 01:17:30,760 --> 01:17:31,920 Yep. And that is like on a progressive scale too, and a 1153 01:17:31,960 --> 01:17:34,680 couple of years it will be our new RMD AGE will be seventy four, 1154 01:17:35,039 --> 01:17:39,119 and I think it's by like twenty thirty two, the RMDAG will be seventy 1155 01:17:39,159 --> 01:17:41,359 five. Yeah. And one of the reasons why I took it, you 1156 01:17:41,359 --> 01:17:43,800 know, because I am I work with taxes, and I work with the 1157 01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:46,840 IRS, and even though you might get hit with those penalties, there's there 1158 01:17:47,039 --> 01:17:51,399 you know, if you do engage with a tax professional tax attorney, you 1159 01:17:51,520 --> 01:17:58,720 might get those some of those penalties waived if if if you approach one of 1160 01:17:58,840 --> 01:18:01,680 us and we end up dealing with the IRS. So that was one of 1161 01:18:01,760 --> 01:18:04,439 the things that I wanted to learn. I was learning about, is you 1162 01:18:04,520 --> 01:18:09,199 know, dealing with the IRS and trying to abate penalties for some of my 1163 01:18:09,319 --> 01:18:12,119 clients. So uh and I'm glad that you got you know, I'm still 1164 01:18:12,319 --> 01:18:15,119 you know, learning, Uh, you know what you guys deal with, 1165 01:18:15,359 --> 01:18:16,640 and you know how on top of things you guys are. And I probably 1166 01:18:16,680 --> 01:18:18,840 didn't even need to take the steely. I could have probably went around the 1167 01:18:18,880 --> 01:18:24,760 corner and question, yeah, well I got to do it all the honor 1168 01:18:24,840 --> 01:18:27,520 system, right, uh So, and then we're you know, Dylan was 1169 01:18:27,600 --> 01:18:30,720 kind of joking around because I'm sharing the office and I had some trouble printing 1170 01:18:30,720 --> 01:18:34,239 out some stuff, and he noticed that I was printing out powers of attorney 1171 01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:40,720 for a client because we had was a big, big lettering, yeah we 1172 01:18:40,880 --> 01:18:44,439 have I have some documentation, and I'm very front and says durable power of 1173 01:18:44,479 --> 01:18:47,079 attorney. And I kind of wanted to chat about that because it's a really 1174 01:18:47,159 --> 01:18:51,359 powerful tool, and it's uh come up a few times this week. I 1175 01:18:51,479 --> 01:18:59,039 have one client who's who's uh blind, um, and she's having trouble, 1176 01:18:59,359 --> 01:19:02,560 uh, you know, getting access to assets, and she doesn't really trust 1177 01:19:02,680 --> 01:19:05,439 very many people around her in her life. You know, her husband passed 1178 01:19:05,439 --> 01:19:09,439 away and a lot of her family lives on the East Coast, so she 1179 01:19:09,600 --> 01:19:12,600 just has caregivers and she doesn't want to give them financial access. So she's 1180 01:19:12,600 --> 01:19:15,920 asked me to be a you know, a power of attorney for her, 1181 01:19:15,760 --> 01:19:18,920 not just an attorney, but a power of an attorney in fact, so 1182 01:19:19,159 --> 01:19:25,720 I can deal with some of her financial situations. And you know, these 1183 01:19:25,760 --> 01:19:29,640 are important whether or not you are blind or you know, you may be 1184 01:19:29,880 --> 01:19:33,960 a married individual. Okay, Uh, let's say we live in a community 1185 01:19:34,000 --> 01:19:38,560 property state and you own some property that's jointly, all right, And then 1186 01:19:38,760 --> 01:19:44,520 you and then your spouse she becomes incapacitated and they're fifty fifty on the house 1187 01:19:44,560 --> 01:19:46,399 and you want to sell the house. You need their signature, you know. 1188 01:19:47,000 --> 01:19:50,199 One of the best ways to alleviate that. Because you want to sell 1189 01:19:50,239 --> 01:19:55,279 the house, get get a power of attorney. Have that set up beforehand. 1190 01:19:56,199 --> 01:19:58,920 Um, you know, uh, if you're not going to do the 1191 01:19:59,039 --> 01:20:02,079 trust, it's it's it's a very powerful tool. It saves a lot of 1192 01:20:02,159 --> 01:20:05,359 money. It avoids, you know, a lot of times having to get 1193 01:20:05,399 --> 01:20:10,359 a guardianship. Guardianships can be very expensive because not only are hiring an attorney 1194 01:20:10,520 --> 01:20:14,840 for the person applying for the guardianship, but the person who needs the guardian 1195 01:20:15,359 --> 01:20:20,760 needs what's called it needs an attorney called that will basically make sure that their 1196 01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:27,840 rights are protected and the core process is uh, you know, make sure 1197 01:20:27,880 --> 01:20:31,680 the process is flowing down a straight line, so both attorneys have to be 1198 01:20:32,159 --> 01:20:36,560 protected. What this durable power of attorney does. It avoids that avoids the 1199 01:20:36,680 --> 01:20:43,800 court intervention, avoids judges and attorney fees and filings, and allows that power 1200 01:20:43,800 --> 01:20:48,199 of attorney to make financial and life decisions for that person. And you and 1201 01:20:48,680 --> 01:20:54,079 you use the word durable power of attorney. The difference between durable power of 1202 01:20:54,119 --> 01:20:59,640 attorney and parwer of attorney. Well, a durable power of attorney withstands incapacity, 1203 01:21:00,399 --> 01:21:03,000 so hugely important. It's very important, hugely important. Yeah. So 1204 01:21:03,319 --> 01:21:06,520 once you become a capacitate, that's next, that's where it comes from. 1205 01:21:06,640 --> 01:21:10,439 It's durable through that. Yeah. The big thing you said too, is 1206 01:21:10,439 --> 01:21:13,680 you got to get the set up before you need it. It's like insurance. 1207 01:21:13,720 --> 01:21:15,880 You can't do it after the fact, right Exactly, if someone's acapacitated, 1208 01:21:15,960 --> 01:21:19,600 then we're doing the guardianship, and then we're hiring attorneys, and then 1209 01:21:19,760 --> 01:21:26,039 were makes a lot messier. Yeah. Yeah, we're filing into probate exactly. 1210 01:21:26,119 --> 01:21:30,319 Yeah. Yeah. I had a client that I'm still dealing with because 1211 01:21:30,399 --> 01:21:34,960 there we are going into probate because her aunt finally passed away. But they 1212 01:21:35,000 --> 01:21:42,600 were looking for an emergency conservatorship because the mom was in the aunt was in 1213 01:21:42,680 --> 01:21:46,479 the hospital. I don't do emergency conservatorships, and the only attorney I did, 1214 01:21:47,000 --> 01:21:54,159 no. They asked for fifteen thousand dollars retainer um, and I, 1215 01:21:54,640 --> 01:21:56,359 you know, I kind of instructed a late. I said, well, 1216 01:21:56,439 --> 01:21:59,439 you can pay him fifteen thousand dollars. But it sounds like from the doctor 1217 01:21:59,479 --> 01:22:02,560 she has about a day to live. So you guys can eat one more 1218 01:22:02,680 --> 01:22:08,520 day of the hospital hospital bills, or you can you know, engage with 1219 01:22:08,600 --> 01:22:12,119 this attorney and then you know, get access to our bank accounts, because 1220 01:22:12,159 --> 01:22:15,520 that's what the hospital wanted, is money to be paid to place her the 1221 01:22:15,600 --> 01:22:20,199 hospice. Right and then, and the important thing to know about it an 1222 01:22:20,199 --> 01:22:25,079 attorney or about excuse me about a power of attorney. Uh, it has 1223 01:22:25,159 --> 01:22:27,640 to be durable. That's the only thing that makes any sense at all. 1224 01:22:28,239 --> 01:22:31,760 It has to be durable. But when I had a call the other day 1225 01:22:32,039 --> 01:22:38,039 and the gal said, my sister has died, it's just the sister is 1226 01:22:38,039 --> 01:22:40,960 a client of ours. She said, I'm calling you to tell you my 1227 01:22:41,079 --> 01:22:45,800 sister passed away. But I have her power of attorney, so it's okay. 1228 01:22:45,560 --> 01:22:48,359 I said, no, no, she has no parv of attorney. 1229 01:22:48,479 --> 01:22:54,000 She's dead. And and that the part of attorney, whether it be a 1230 01:22:54,119 --> 01:22:58,760 regular power of attorney or a durable power attorney, dies when the client dies 1231 01:23:00,000 --> 01:23:03,159 because they when you essentially, when you don't have the ability to revoke something, 1232 01:23:03,720 --> 01:23:08,600 it dies, right, exactly, and I had that issue recently as 1233 01:23:08,640 --> 01:23:12,399 well. Um, we did in a state plan, we did some powers 1234 01:23:12,439 --> 01:23:15,760 of attorney, we did a will, and we did uh beneficiary deeds. 1235 01:23:16,319 --> 01:23:23,560 And the person who was the POA after the principle finally passed away, was 1236 01:23:23,640 --> 01:23:26,640 wondering why she couldn't get access to the bank accounts and I said, well, 1237 01:23:26,960 --> 01:23:29,520 you know, that's why we put beneficiaries on the bank accounts. And 1238 01:23:29,600 --> 01:23:30,560 she's like, well, I want to get access to the bank accounts. 1239 01:23:30,560 --> 01:23:33,079 I'm like, well, you're not a beneficiary. We've already taken care of 1240 01:23:33,199 --> 01:23:36,680 that. Where the point was to avoid probate and you to have power of 1241 01:23:36,720 --> 01:23:43,800 attorney while the principle was incapacitated. And UM, it's important to know that, 1242 01:23:44,319 --> 01:23:48,680 all right, UM, that the power of attorney only goes ends at 1243 01:23:48,760 --> 01:23:55,000 the at the death of the principle. Who is the person is the person 1244 01:23:55,079 --> 01:23:57,479 signing the right. And there's something you have to have, like jan said, 1245 01:23:57,560 --> 01:24:00,920 something you want to have him in place before these things happen. Yeah, 1246 01:24:00,960 --> 01:24:03,640 exactly. Life insurance. You can't buy a life insurance after any type 1247 01:24:03,640 --> 01:24:06,840 of ashurance. You need that before the fact. Jonathan, thank you for 1248 01:24:08,000 --> 01:24:12,439 joining us. Jonathan is here in our office. Um, he's a lawyer, 1249 01:24:12,600 --> 01:24:16,239 he had his own firm. Uh. The initial appointment is no charge. 1250 01:24:16,880 --> 01:24:21,279 Jonathan does wills, he does trust, he does very sophisticated tax planning 1251 01:24:21,439 --> 01:24:27,079 things. We love having him here. And UH, if you have any 1252 01:24:27,199 --> 01:24:30,039 needs along those lines, please give us a call. We'll put you in 1253 01:24:30,119 --> 01:24:32,439 touch with Jonathan, and I know he'd love to meet with you. We'll 1254 01:24:32,479 --> 01:24:36,960 be back with the final segment of The Money Matter Show right after this break. 1255 01:24:38,000 --> 01:24:41,000 Thanks again for taking time to join us on this Sunday morning. Jonathan, 1256 01:24:41,239 --> 01:24:51,800 Thank you Every Sunday guys say it's all Welcome back to the Money Matters 1257 01:24:51,840 --> 01:24:56,279 Show. My name is Todd Blick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Dave 1258 01:24:56,359 --> 01:25:00,880 Sherwood. What a fun week. Now and you could see a that gains 1259 01:25:00,920 --> 01:25:03,039 over two percent, we'll see too many of them. No, it's and 1260 01:25:03,319 --> 01:25:05,960 I will say, we did not see this coming. We did not see 1261 01:25:06,119 --> 01:25:10,760 this kind of a first half. The the interest rates are rising, the 1262 01:25:10,840 --> 01:25:15,319 economy is slowing, they're trying to bring inflation down. Many corporations that have 1263 01:25:15,479 --> 01:25:21,319 reported earnings have reported disappointing guidance, suggesting things are slowing down. It's not 1264 01:25:21,439 --> 01:25:25,720 an environment where you would expect the market to be setting a new fifty two 1265 01:25:25,760 --> 01:25:29,720 weeks high, but it did. Yeah, and people still continue to go 1266 01:25:29,840 --> 01:25:32,239 into those megacap tech stocks, right, I mean, right here, I 1267 01:25:32,319 --> 01:25:40,119 have a charge shows that hedge fund managers are overweight megacap tech stocks the most 1268 01:25:40,199 --> 01:25:44,640 since twenty twenty. Those are you know, your Apples and Amazon's, Google, 1269 01:25:44,720 --> 01:25:48,640 Meta Microsoft. It makes sense too. We've pointed out constantly the difference 1270 01:25:48,680 --> 01:25:53,840 between the s and P five hundred and equal weighted. Everyone is loading into 1271 01:25:53,880 --> 01:25:57,439 that. A lot of people these names had a good day on Friday because 1272 01:25:57,720 --> 01:26:00,359 if hedge fund managers were in there during that quarter, guess what they're doing. 1273 01:26:00,439 --> 01:26:03,239 They're buying those stocks so they can show at the end of the quarter 1274 01:26:03,319 --> 01:26:05,880 that they have that they owned it. And that's what it was on Friday. 1275 01:26:06,439 --> 01:26:11,119 All of the big winners for the year were up big on Friday. 1276 01:26:11,199 --> 01:26:14,840 Yeah, I mean Apple hit over three trillion dollars market act because in the 1277 01:26:14,920 --> 01:26:17,039 portfolio. They wanted to show that on their quarters, which would be a 1278 01:26:17,079 --> 01:26:21,159 shock if Apple hasn't been part of their portfolio. And yes, you know, 1279 01:26:21,239 --> 01:26:25,600 one of the sectors that has been lagging the SMP five hundred is the 1280 01:26:25,680 --> 01:26:31,960 consumer staples est of the SMP, and those are things like Walmart and Target 1281 01:26:32,159 --> 01:26:36,840 and Altria, Philip Morris, those type of stocks, the recession proof stocks, 1282 01:26:36,960 --> 01:26:40,600 as they say, right, yeah, well I saw an interesting UH 1283 01:26:41,319 --> 01:26:45,319 insight where insiders, corporate insiders, you you get to see their buy or 1284 01:26:45,399 --> 01:26:49,399 sell in the ratio of which and right now they're buying a lot. The 1285 01:26:49,520 --> 01:26:55,720 corporate insiders of consumer staple companies are buying a lot right now, and normally 1286 01:26:55,800 --> 01:27:00,600 when they do there's a very successful rin rate and also trailing which you want 1287 01:27:00,600 --> 01:27:06,399 to look for opportunities that aren't information technology right, which is well exceeded the 1288 01:27:06,720 --> 01:27:10,880 S and P five hundred returns. You want to try to find some areas 1289 01:27:10,960 --> 01:27:13,760 that maybe have a chance to come back. I mean, really, we 1290 01:27:13,840 --> 01:27:17,560 saw that coming into twenty twenty three, technology was terrible. You go into 1291 01:27:17,600 --> 01:27:21,800 technology that went great. Energy was the best performing in twenty right, and 1292 01:27:23,039 --> 01:27:26,680 it went opposite. So sometimes it makes sense to try to find the areas 1293 01:27:26,720 --> 01:27:30,159 that haven't been performing as well, things like we've already pointed out with value 1294 01:27:30,199 --> 01:27:34,680 stocks down four percent on the year on average, with those ETFs, Eventually 1295 01:27:34,800 --> 01:27:40,079 these stocks will come back and the other stocks that are have these meteortic rises 1296 01:27:40,119 --> 01:27:43,640 will come back to gravity as well. One of the stocks in that segment 1297 01:27:43,840 --> 01:27:46,760 is three M. That's one of the worst performing dallastocks. It was one 1298 01:27:46,760 --> 01:27:50,880 of the worst performing dallastocks last year. It's one of the worst performing dallastocks 1299 01:27:50,960 --> 01:27:56,960 this year. They've been mired in litigation that has took the stock down to 1300 01:27:57,119 --> 01:28:00,439 levels not seen in ten years, hit a ten year low. They got 1301 01:28:00,520 --> 01:28:05,800 a bump this week after last week after reporting they've reached a ten billion dollars 1302 01:28:05,880 --> 01:28:13,560 settlement with US towns and cities over a claim that contaminated drinking water where Forever 1303 01:28:13,720 --> 01:28:16,199 chemicals so called forever Chemicals. Have you heard about those or not? But 1304 01:28:16,239 --> 01:28:20,199 if you haven't google them, it's Forever Chemicals. The stock is trading at 1305 01:28:20,239 --> 01:28:25,520 twelve times earnings as a dividend of six percent. That appears to be safe. 1306 01:28:26,760 --> 01:28:30,800 They still have the military hearing aid lawsuit hanging over their head, but 1307 01:28:30,960 --> 01:28:35,600 they did settle one of the major lawsuits that many thought they might not be 1308 01:28:35,720 --> 01:28:40,720 able to settle and stay in business. And they settle up for ten billions, 1309 01:28:40,920 --> 01:28:44,760 which the three M is workable if they can get a settlement of the 1310 01:28:44,920 --> 01:28:47,920 hearing aid deal that might be a stock, but that's the kind of stock 1311 01:28:48,039 --> 01:28:54,640 that is just languishing right now in this market that's on fire. Yeah. 1312 01:28:54,800 --> 01:29:00,760 Another one's Walgreens DAL component already down thirteen percent this year. Walgreen dropped to 1313 01:29:00,840 --> 01:29:06,199 a thirteen year lull. Thirteen year lull last week at the end of COVID 1314 01:29:06,640 --> 01:29:12,760 has seen a decrease to start traffic and Amazon making big strides in the prescription 1315 01:29:12,840 --> 01:29:15,439 business. You know, I don't see new Walgerens popping up around Tucson. 1316 01:29:15,520 --> 01:29:19,119 Have you noticed that it's always needs pops up, Yeah, not new ones 1317 01:29:19,159 --> 01:29:24,880 being build. Deutsche Bank I love this. Deutsche Bank decides that a thirteen 1318 01:29:25,000 --> 01:29:28,680 year lull is a good place to go from buy to hold. Well, 1319 01:29:28,720 --> 01:29:32,520 speaking of dotche Bank, they came out with a recession probability factor of one 1320 01:29:32,560 --> 01:29:36,279 hundred percent within the next twelve months. There's a they say there's one hundred 1321 01:29:36,319 --> 01:29:43,399 percent probability level recession. That's according dotche Bank, and recessions have historically come 1322 01:29:43,520 --> 01:29:48,039 every four years throughout our economic cycles. The last one was the shortest one 1323 01:29:48,079 --> 01:29:51,159 in history, which was March of twenty twenty. Right, Yeah, I 1324 01:29:51,239 --> 01:29:56,000 mean in theory you could go into in the next year and the year after 1325 01:29:56,119 --> 01:29:59,600 without a recession, but a recession in the next twelve months. When you 1326 01:29:59,680 --> 01:30:02,239 look at the inverted yield curve, I would say one hundred percent might be 1327 01:30:02,279 --> 01:30:08,479 a little strong, but ninety nine. Yeah, you're saying the Amazon Pharmaceuticals 1328 01:30:08,640 --> 01:30:12,680 is done a little bit better than how they're making they're doing. They're still 1329 01:30:12,720 --> 01:30:15,600 struggling, and Whole Foods is still struggling. There are parts of Amazon that 1330 01:30:15,680 --> 01:30:18,000 are not on fire. Right. If you're going to a recession, Whole 1331 01:30:18,000 --> 01:30:21,359 Foods is going to probably continue to struggle as well, because that's pricier food. 1332 01:30:21,600 --> 01:30:26,760 It is pricier and you and it's not really a groceries what's the word 1333 01:30:26,760 --> 01:30:30,960 I want to use. If you need groceries, Whole Foods probably isn't some 1334 01:30:30,039 --> 01:30:34,439 place to go because you're gonna have a hard time finding catchup, you know. 1335 01:30:34,600 --> 01:30:40,279 It's it's all all kind of one off. I'm not sure frankly who 1336 01:30:40,359 --> 01:30:43,680 shops there, but there's one a mile from my house and I'm in there 1337 01:30:44,239 --> 01:30:48,960 probably once a week to buy fruit or or meat or something some kind. 1338 01:30:49,039 --> 01:30:53,479 But when I got down the eye wine selection. Yeah, but if you 1339 01:30:53,520 --> 01:30:55,439 know, if I need my wife said, oh, we're out of catch 1340 01:30:55,520 --> 01:30:58,399 up front on this. I'm gonna have to go three miles to the fries 1341 01:30:58,439 --> 01:31:00,920 to get catch up. I'm gonna find catch up a whole Foods, find 1342 01:31:01,000 --> 01:31:04,319 some organic catch I'll find some organ you don't even know it's catch up or 1343 01:31:04,399 --> 01:31:10,439 mixed with mustard or some some some goofy goofy thing, you know. But 1344 01:31:10,640 --> 01:31:13,239 you know, they do have wonderful pastries. It's a good wine rack. 1345 01:31:13,359 --> 01:31:15,640 They have a lot of fresh food there. It's a nice store. I 1346 01:31:15,680 --> 01:31:18,560 don't want to dis I mean, if you've eaten there too, it's got 1347 01:31:18,640 --> 01:31:21,039 good food. They have an actual restaurant. You've absolutely there, and I 1348 01:31:21,159 --> 01:31:26,520 know it's good. It's good. I don't dislike like As really, but 1349 01:31:26,640 --> 01:31:30,399 like a nation. It's like a worldwide Aja's and it's I'm not sure what 1350 01:31:30,520 --> 01:31:33,520 it is. It's somewhere it's I don't know. I like Ajas better than 1351 01:31:33,600 --> 01:31:38,760 Whole Foods, but that's just that's just me. And maybe it's because I 1352 01:31:38,840 --> 01:31:42,119 grew up. Ajas is more boutique because it's only in Arizona. Yeah it 1353 01:31:42,279 --> 01:31:45,239 is, it is. Yeah, either way, they got good food and 1354 01:31:45,640 --> 01:31:48,399 you know, it's not a regular grocery store as my point, Nope, 1355 01:31:48,760 --> 01:31:54,000 kroger that's what you got, a Kroger's and video still continues to run the 1356 01:31:54,079 --> 01:32:00,640 world again. They have the chip that everybody wants for ai and they're scrambling 1357 01:32:00,680 --> 01:32:03,159 to get it. They up one hundred and ninety percent this year. Finally 1358 01:32:03,279 --> 01:32:09,600 found some sellers on Monday that took about five percent off that rally. No 1359 01:32:09,800 --> 01:32:15,199 particular news, it's just been going higher on no news. Biden came out 1360 01:32:15,239 --> 01:32:18,439 and said, may have more restrictions. You may recall a couple months back, 1361 01:32:18,760 --> 01:32:26,199 Biden restricted shipment of high end ships to China. They're really concerned with 1362 01:32:26,479 --> 01:32:30,399 China being able to compete with us on chips, on computer chips which run 1363 01:32:30,520 --> 01:32:35,920 everything right, and China is not competing with us very well. We control 1364 01:32:36,000 --> 01:32:41,960 the high end ship market, but Taiwan actually manufactures most of those chips. 1365 01:32:42,720 --> 01:32:45,680 I can't remember what the number was, but something like ninety percent of all 1366 01:32:45,760 --> 01:32:49,520 of the high end ships in the world were developed here, and I think 1367 01:32:49,560 --> 01:32:54,479 it was seventy percent and ninety percent of those chips are manufactured in Taiwan. 1368 01:32:54,560 --> 01:32:58,479 Well, that's why so beneficial that Taiwan is opening their factories up in Phoenix. 1369 01:32:58,640 --> 01:33:00,560 Yes, it's going to make everything a lot quicker, right, and 1370 01:33:00,800 --> 01:33:06,720 and Biden came out when Biden put those restrictions on UH and Vidia came up 1371 01:33:06,800 --> 01:33:15,319 with a chip similar to their big h the H one hundred, which runs 1372 01:33:15,359 --> 01:33:20,159 all of the artificial intelligence. They came up with a chip that wasn't enough 1373 01:33:20,439 --> 01:33:25,520 different from that that the US regulators city, Yeah, that'll work, you 1374 01:33:25,640 --> 01:33:29,520 can sell that to China. UM And then what Biden did this past week 1375 01:33:29,680 --> 01:33:32,680 is he came out and he said he said, they're thinking about restrictions on 1376 01:33:32,800 --> 01:33:36,520 those chips now. Well, the A one hundred, oh, is that 1377 01:33:36,560 --> 01:33:43,079 the newest one one hundred was not the newest one that's been selling out. 1378 01:33:43,119 --> 01:33:47,119 That was their previous large learning one one hundred is the newest one? Is 1379 01:33:47,159 --> 01:33:50,840 that the one they altered to sell the China one they re engineered so it 1380 01:33:50,840 --> 01:33:56,000 would be acceptable. Chin went to China has a different it's like a different 1381 01:33:56,079 --> 01:33:57,840 you know what I'm saying. Yeah, but did they kind of take it 1382 01:33:57,960 --> 01:34:00,239 from the newest one at the made it less power? I was gonna say, 1383 01:34:00,239 --> 01:34:02,399 if they took it from the one hundred, that's already outdated. Anyways, 1384 01:34:02,439 --> 01:34:05,279 they've moved on it just made it I guess the point is that the 1385 01:34:05,319 --> 01:34:11,199 biggest problem for Nvidia is demand is far exceeds supply, so that whether far 1386 01:34:11,600 --> 01:34:14,840 whether China can't get them or not, it's really at this point for them 1387 01:34:15,159 --> 01:34:16,760 matters not. I think it's a good thing we have these restrictions because if 1388 01:34:16,920 --> 01:34:19,640 you look at history, what is China do? They think what we did 1389 01:34:19,720 --> 01:34:23,720 really well and they just copy it well and they've gone from five percent of 1390 01:34:23,800 --> 01:34:27,039 the world chip market to twenty five percent in the last twelve years. Well, 1391 01:34:27,039 --> 01:34:30,960 we've gone from fifty to thirty. So it's been going the wrong direction. 1392 01:34:30,399 --> 01:34:33,319 Well, I don't know how many things Biden's done right, I probably 1393 01:34:33,359 --> 01:34:36,359 can kind of. On one hand, that Chip Act was very important. 1394 01:34:36,399 --> 01:34:40,319 I liked it. I liked the Chip chip. I think the Chip thing 1395 01:34:40,439 --> 01:34:44,279 was was a move in the right direction, and I think it was imperative 1396 01:34:44,399 --> 01:34:47,840 that we do that. And China is a real threat. I love seeing 1397 01:34:47,920 --> 01:34:56,039 their economy struggling as their exports slow because the US is finding other places to 1398 01:34:56,119 --> 01:35:02,279 get things. I love that we need to we need to distance ourselves from 1399 01:35:02,319 --> 01:35:06,880 them. They are a real threat on the global stage and they're a real 1400 01:35:06,960 --> 01:35:11,600 threat to us, and I think we need to do whatever we can to 1401 01:35:11,840 --> 01:35:15,640 distance ourselves. And I should think we're going in that direction, just slowly. 1402 01:35:15,720 --> 01:35:17,960 I think other companies are too. A lot of companies seem to be 1403 01:35:18,079 --> 01:35:21,680 moving their factories to Indonesia, to India, to a little bit in Mexico. 1404 01:35:23,319 --> 01:35:26,800 They're kind of getting tired of China. Yeah, it is hurting China 1405 01:35:26,840 --> 01:35:29,800 a lot. It is hurting China a lot. Edit there exports were what 1406 01:35:30,000 --> 01:35:34,079 seven percent below what they were a couple of months ago, and they're talking 1407 01:35:34,159 --> 01:35:41,560 about infusing money into the economy to try to stimulate because things are not recovering 1408 01:35:41,640 --> 01:35:46,119 from COVID the way they had hoped. And we'll see how it goes again. 1409 01:35:46,319 --> 01:35:53,199 We're running out of time here. We've enjoyed bringing you this Money Matters 1410 01:35:53,239 --> 01:35:57,399 show. Dean will be traveling for one more week, but then two weeks 1411 01:35:57,479 --> 01:35:59,960 from today he will be back real quick. How do you like your hotdog? 1412 01:36:00,640 --> 01:36:03,600 Catch up like it? I do catch up mustard already, the whole 1413 01:36:03,640 --> 01:36:06,640 fixings catch it mustard, relish. I guess I'm catch up in relish. 1414 01:36:08,119 --> 01:36:13,439 No, no mustard are sometimes I don't need mustard? Suracrasts good and a 1415 01:36:13,479 --> 01:36:20,760 potato salad America tomorrow absolutely yeah, the day after tomor we have a half 1416 01:36:20,760 --> 01:36:24,119 a day. We'll enjoy a half a day of work tomorrow with no work 1417 01:36:24,159 --> 01:36:26,640 on Tuesday, and then Wednesday we have to come back to the grind tone. 1418 01:36:26,720 --> 01:36:29,319 Anyway, we thank you for joining us. We all want to be 1419 01:36:29,439 --> 01:36:32,399 happy, of course, and of course healthy is really up there on the 1420 01:36:32,439 --> 01:36:35,600 list of things. But what we want to be here at Greenberg Financial is 1421 01:36:36,079 --> 01:36:39,079 off them all next week.