Markets are Soaring Halfway Through the Year – Will it Continue?

100:00:04,879 --> 00:00:09,519Good morning, Tucson. It's Sunday. It's July second. I'm Dave Sherwood.200:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,519I'm here with Todd Glick. I'mhere with Dylan Greenberg. You know,300:00:12,599 --> 00:00:17,079last Monday, guys, we celebratedthe thirty third anniversary of the hottest400:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,280day in the history of Tucson.Oh wow, I need to know what500:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,480the number. It was one hundredand seventeen degrees. But I wasn't here600:00:23,640 --> 00:00:28,719because I had a previous appointment inPhoenix where it was one hundred and twenty700:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,640three degrees. Oh wow, Soone hundred and seventeen to We made a800:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,960good run out of this past Monday. We were one hundred and eleven.900:00:34,079 --> 00:00:36,799It's a good show. Good show, but it wasn't one hundred and seventeen.1000:00:37,679 --> 00:00:41,039But it's warm out there. It'snot cold. I think you would1100:00:41,039 --> 00:00:43,679all agree it's warm. I loveyour weather updates every Sunday. Well,1200:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,079it's important. I'm outside a lot, except this time of the year,1300:00:47,119 --> 00:00:51,200I'm more in the gym than outside. It's fascinating how much the weather changes.1400:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,759I was out there at like fourto fifteen this morning, and down1500:00:54,799 --> 00:00:57,159in Sawreta, so it's a littlecooler there. Absolutely. It was.1600:00:57,439 --> 00:01:00,640It was like fifty six degrees whenI was out there. Oh really,1700:01:00,679 --> 00:01:02,600and it gets up to like,you know, it gets up to like1800:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,560one oh five there, so you'rejust like a fifty degree swing that you1900:01:04,599 --> 00:01:07,319know, this place. Aye,it's kind of like those old Western movies,2000:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,879right remember, would they'd be swalteringin a day time, in a2100:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,280night they'd be freezing and what not? Quite that right, bad, But2200:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,879there's a dramatic difference, especially whenthe air gets dry like it is now.2300:01:18,439 --> 00:01:22,480Exactly what a week in the market? What a month? What a2400:01:22,599 --> 00:01:30,400year so far? The week startedoff kind of quiet. The first three2500:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,680or four days of the week,we're kind of quiet. But on Friday,2600:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,120the last day of the quarter,the last day before money managers and2700:01:37,239 --> 00:01:42,400mutual funds and hedge fund managers allput their quarterly reports out to the public,2800:01:44,000 --> 00:01:48,359there were no sellers, insight.It was all buyers from the get2900:01:48,400 --> 00:01:53,319go. It started off moving higherand just gained ground throughout the day.3000:01:53,959 --> 00:01:59,319And that's indicative to me of peoplethat are wanting to window dress. Oh3100:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,760yeah, well, I mean yeah, you kind of see that always going3200:02:00,799 --> 00:02:04,920into the end of a quarter.It's usually a run up and then also3300:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,879same time, it was a holidayweekend in a sense. I mean,3400:02:07,879 --> 00:02:10,960I know we're open tomorrow at forhalf a day, but you still see3500:02:10,960 --> 00:02:15,120that run up. That bring upan interesting point. We have an interesting3600:02:15,159 --> 00:02:20,240week next week with the fourth ofJuly holiday on Tuesday, yep. And3700:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,199Wall Street is good at getting outearly, and so Monday the market is3800:02:24,240 --> 00:02:30,759open until one pm on in NewYork, which means at ten am in3900:02:30,800 --> 00:02:36,879Tucson the market's closed. So Mondaywe're open until ten I think the office4000:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,520might be until ten thirty or elevenand then that's it, and then Tuesday4100:02:39,599 --> 00:02:46,680off. And the people often askwhy why would you even open it all?4200:02:46,719 --> 00:02:50,919And that's because there is a lawthat came about back in the nineteen4300:02:51,000 --> 00:02:58,840thirty three that says financial institutions shallnot be closed for more than three consecutive4400:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,960days, which that's yeah, yougotta get your money, giving people access4500:03:02,000 --> 00:03:06,400to their money. Yeah, Andof course that was done long before at4600:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,960ms and electronic transfers and things ofthat nature that make it kind of kind4700:03:10,960 --> 00:03:15,080of silly, but it is whatit is. And that's why we were4800:03:15,120 --> 00:03:20,159opened the Friday after Thanksgiving as well, because that would be four consecutive days,4900:03:20,199 --> 00:03:24,159which is which is brown on ifit. Dean is still traveling any5000:03:24,240 --> 00:03:29,759updates dealing from They're in Portugal rightnow and he's enjoying life as much as5100:03:29,759 --> 00:03:34,240he can as he's hobbling around.But he's isn't He's getting better, getting5200:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,439better in the sense of his legsstrengthening, but he has nossability, so5300:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,560he's just getting used to it.It's probably an ACLS it sounds like,5400:03:40,039 --> 00:03:43,120but he's definitely getting used to itand making the best of it. I5500:03:43,199 --> 00:03:46,280thought thought it was interesting that inEurope they don't use the crutches, the5600:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,520wooden crutches like we do that gounder your arm now that connect them to5700:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,479your forums. Yeah, the forums, Like you've seen people with polio that5800:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,919will use exact same ones. Yeah, it's the exact same and and he5900:03:55,280 --> 00:03:59,879said that they're they're way better.Yeah, I never used all use the6000:03:59,879 --> 00:04:00,680one. It's gonna go to yourarm pit. They suck. Yeah,6100:04:00,759 --> 00:04:04,039it makes a lot of sense thatnow you were you were last weekend,6200:04:04,039 --> 00:04:08,599you were here, you were upin Peoria, Peoria, Leo, Peoria,6300:04:08,719 --> 00:04:12,080Arizona. Though no, you're inall the way to the real Peoria.6400:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,319Yeah, Peoria, Leno, Iwas back there for a friend's wedding,6500:04:14,719 --> 00:04:17,160and what kind of reports do youhave for us from Peoria? The6600:04:17,199 --> 00:04:20,240weather was hot. It wasn't reallylike a man Dylan. Yeah, it6700:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,079was hot. It was. Itwas more humid though, but a small6800:04:24,120 --> 00:04:25,879town, it is a good time. Yeah, but it's a shame you6900:04:26,079 --> 00:04:29,639so you didn't get seventy degree weatherand a break from the heat or anything.7000:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,399No, it was like ninety pluswith humidity. With humidity during the7100:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,399mornings were like way better. Theywere sixty degrees where we started golfing in7200:04:36,399 --> 00:04:40,279the like early mornings, but bythe time it was midday it was Yeah,7300:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,720it was nineties. It was goodto have you back. I think7400:04:42,959 --> 00:04:46,519Dean is traveling again next weekend andthen the following you will be back for7500:04:46,600 --> 00:04:51,839the fourteenth, which is the sixteenthfor episode show for the show the sixteen7600:04:51,959 --> 00:04:56,759yep. Yeah. So those ofyou that miss his voice, you can7700:04:56,839 --> 00:05:00,600always go to the iHeart website orthe iHeart app, and or you can7800:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,600click on the microphone in the upperleft hand corner of our right of Greenberg7900:05:04,720 --> 00:05:10,600Financial dot Com and to listen toany of our past shows. So if8000:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,800you're new to our show and kindof wondering, Hey, what what are8100:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,800these guys all about? You certainlycan listen to any of the past shows.8200:05:16,879 --> 00:05:19,759And since we're talking about the show, let's get rid of that disclaimer8300:05:19,839 --> 00:05:24,560real quick. This show has beensponsored by Greenberg Financial Group. You can8400:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,319listen on seven ninety k ST orHigheart Radio. To show discusses different investment8500:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,000products and strategies. Every product instrategy has some type of inherent risk.8600:05:31,319 --> 00:05:35,600We strongly encourage our listeners to probablyunderstand these risks to determine whether to buy,8700:05:35,639 --> 00:05:38,759sell, or hold. Show hasbeen on the air for over thirty8800:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,240years. Greenberg Financial Group is registeredwith the SEC as a member of FENRA8900:05:42,399 --> 00:05:46,560and SIPIC. You can visit ourwebsite Greenberg financial dot com or more information.9000:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,759Thank you John. Headlines this week, probably the biggest headline, at9100:05:50,839 --> 00:05:56,120least early in the week was theWagner Groups march on Moscow. Is it9200:05:56,199 --> 00:06:00,839Wagner or Wagner, Wagner, Wagner, I probably Wagner, Yeah, probably9300:06:00,920 --> 00:06:02,720Wagner. I've heard different people saydifferent things. I think Wagner, or9400:06:02,800 --> 00:06:09,759we can just call him Wagner.That's American Wager Group. Big news in9500:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,040the war that we haven't heard muchabout recently. And you know, Putin's9600:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,680had been in power for twenty threeyears and really that's probably the biggest threat9700:06:15,720 --> 00:06:18,839to his power ever. Well,Todd, you were telling me, it9800:06:18,879 --> 00:06:23,079turns out that guy was like hisbest friend, good friend, stuff like9900:06:23,160 --> 00:06:27,240that. Yeah, apparently he's developeda very kin relationship over the years with10000:06:27,439 --> 00:06:30,800the leader of the Wagner Group andUM was eventually kind of the reason the10100:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,360Wagner Group everything was created in thefirst place was to have Putin have a10200:06:34,439 --> 00:06:39,399private militia UM. And you're notallowed to have private militias in Russia according10300:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,560to their laws UM. But thisWagner Group is, you know, registered10400:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,160in outside of UM Russia, sothey're able to get around some of that10500:06:47,279 --> 00:06:53,519jurisdiction issues. But it's kind oflike Putin's gang for example, it really10600:06:53,639 --> 00:06:56,720is. And then the gang kindof didn't like what they were how they10700:06:56,759 --> 00:06:59,600were being treated, and then thegang leader kind of said, you couldn't10800:06:59,639 --> 00:07:04,079give me what I want or we'recoming to Moscow in procotion really became friends10900:07:04,160 --> 00:07:10,560with Putin back when he had acatering company and provided meals for Putin.11000:07:10,639 --> 00:07:15,000They actually called him putin chef.Yes, so y'all have heard all about11100:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,680this all week on the TV.But one thing I thought was fascinating is11200:07:17,920 --> 00:07:23,199I went to the gym on Tuesday. I think it is when it's broke,11300:07:23,639 --> 00:07:27,279and it had just broken. Itwas relatively fresh news, like within11400:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,519the last twelve hours or so.And I'm at the gym and in front11500:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,279of the treadmill that I use isCNN, so I'm forced to look at11600:07:33,360 --> 00:07:39,639it. And they spent the firstthirty minutes of their four o'clock hour,11700:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,800which is seven o'clock in New York, right, that's prime time. They11800:07:42,879 --> 00:07:46,319spent the first thirty minutes talking aboutTrump. YEP, I was watching the11900:07:46,399 --> 00:07:50,920same might choose fitness, watching thesame thing. I remember back when they12000:07:51,000 --> 00:07:55,639first started, it was the TurnerNews Network TNN, and I think it12100:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,920ought to be TNN again Trump NewsNetwork, right, because they're doing more12200:08:00,680 --> 00:08:05,399for Trump than any campaign manager,than any donor. Yeah, the problem12300:08:05,519 --> 00:08:07,720is no one watches CNN anymore.No, that's true. The viewership is12400:08:07,920 --> 00:08:11,319way Absolutely, it's so bad.Yeah, it's so bad. But I12500:08:11,399 --> 00:08:16,040mean they're giving him constant coverage,keeping his name out there and and inflaming12600:08:16,079 --> 00:08:20,279at least half of the country,and so let's rename it the TNN.12700:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,759I saw a status says, youknow, Tucker Carlson during his primetime on12800:08:24,839 --> 00:08:31,439Fox had a one hundred times theviewers that CNN would have during their primetime12900:08:31,480 --> 00:08:35,360hour. And the really interesting thingis people like Joe Rogan his podcast a13000:08:35,480 --> 00:08:41,120thousand times the viewers CNNs. Sothe reach is just not there for CNN.13100:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,720They don't have the same type ofmedia power as they used to.13200:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,519Yeah, they did it to themselves. It's absolutely is what it is.13300:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,080And they did they did. AndI was saying that maybe that maybe Warner13400:08:52,120 --> 00:08:56,720Brothers will just shut him down,right, but they had a net profit13500:08:56,960 --> 00:09:01,440last year of a billion dollars.You think five there's gonna let CNN shut13600:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,960down the I mean, that's theirmarketing arm. There's no way they're gonna13700:09:03,000 --> 00:09:11,279let Other headlines came from the SupremeCourt a couple of major rulings, and13800:09:11,440 --> 00:09:16,200I know we all have opinions.They were that that race based college admission13900:09:16,360 --> 00:09:20,480was declared unconstitutional, affirmative action,affirmative action, and student loan forgiveness of14000:09:22,120 --> 00:09:26,080no way forget it bout the Bidenis so that needs congressional approval. They14100:09:26,159 --> 00:09:28,399said that, Yeah, and thendoes Friday afternoon, Biden had a press14200:09:28,440 --> 00:09:33,559conference and he said that he's goingto find another avenue to figure it out14300:09:33,879 --> 00:09:35,840because it's just so much for thepeople to give them that And that's just14400:09:35,960 --> 00:09:41,480the talking. That's just politics.There is no other angle. The entire14500:09:41,559 --> 00:09:45,279time, it's been politics. Hesaid it like a month before the midterms14600:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,519that you were going to relieve studentdebt, and everyone knew you can't do14700:09:48,639 --> 00:09:52,080that. It's on constitution. We'rehalfway through the year and through and the14800:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,720s and P five hundred is upfifteen point nine percent for the year.14900:09:56,399 --> 00:10:03,120The nashtack up thirty one point sevenpercent for the year. We talk on15000:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,720and on about the equal weighted SMPfive hundred, which is really more representative15100:10:07,799 --> 00:10:13,919of what's going on in people's accounts. Rather than fifteen point nine percent that15200:10:13,039 --> 00:10:18,080the SMP is up, the equalSMP is up five point nine, so15300:10:18,399 --> 00:10:22,080a ten percent difference. Yeah,and we keep hammering that too, that15400:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,240we've been talking about it for awhile now. It's the magnificent seven stocks15500:10:26,279 --> 00:10:31,679that are really increased in the NASDAC. The SMP five hundred only really apples15600:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,679in them or in the Dow too, so that one hasn't been as much.15700:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,320But it seems just fabricating the sensethat there's seven stocks out of the15800:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,559five hundred roughly that are just killingit, that is driving everything. Right15900:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,960now, I'll take it one stepfurther, Dylan, I follow a number16000:10:46,039 --> 00:10:52,720of value ETFs exchange traded funds.These are funds that have in them the16100:10:52,879 --> 00:10:56,639stocks that you want to own ifyou're a conservative investor, the Procter and16200:10:56,720 --> 00:11:01,279Gamble, the Merks, the ATand Ts, the Verizons, boring dividend16300:11:01,279 --> 00:11:05,200stop, boring dividend stops, andyear to date, ready for this year16400:11:05,240 --> 00:11:09,360to date, there's five of myfollow year to date, the average return16500:11:09,480 --> 00:11:16,879on those five exchange traded funds,including dividends is minus four percent minus four16600:11:16,960 --> 00:11:22,600percent. So when you have abalanced portfolio, and I talk about this16700:11:22,720 --> 00:11:26,440every week because I think it's important. When you look at your portfolio and16800:11:26,519 --> 00:11:30,039you and we've we've had a coupleof calls and uh gee, you know,16900:11:30,159 --> 00:11:33,759the the SMP five hundreds up sixteenand the nazecs up thirty two and17000:11:33,960 --> 00:11:39,360my accounts up six Why because you'renot one hundred percent in the SMP five17100:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,279hundred. That's number one. Numbertwo, you're you're not one hundred percent17200:11:43,320 --> 00:11:48,960of the NASDAC. Number three,you don't have as your primary investment vehicle17300:11:48,080 --> 00:11:52,080the magnificent seven. Yeah, youhave a position in the magnificent seven.17400:11:52,159 --> 00:11:56,200Let's say almost everybody has Apple.You might have three percent Apple, four17500:11:56,279 --> 00:12:01,360percent Apple, well Apples eight percentof the s P five hundred. Yeah,17600:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,080we have Microsoft for a lot ofpeople. We haven't a video for17700:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,000a lot of people. But Imean, if your risk tolerance isn't high,17800:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,080you're not going to be necessarily innvidio because nvidio swings a lot.17900:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,519Just last year, it was outone hundred and eight dollars a share,18000:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,200yea, and it kept going downand people didn't want to buy more of18100:12:16,240 --> 00:12:20,120it because they thought it was goingto just crashed down to nothing. And18200:12:20,279 --> 00:12:22,879now they're saying, why don't webuy more down there? Because I don't18300:12:22,919 --> 00:12:26,879have the risktolerance too. We toldthem clients have had that that. We18400:12:26,919 --> 00:12:28,480told him that's why we do whatwe do with that, because you can't18500:12:28,519 --> 00:12:31,279just throw them one hundred percent inbecause when it's going down, they can't18600:12:31,320 --> 00:12:35,639stomach that downturn. I remember theend of twenty two, the end of18700:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,559twenty twenty two, which was justsix months ago, nobody wanted anything to18800:12:39,720 --> 00:12:46,120do with Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, nobody wanted anything to do18900:12:48,159 --> 00:12:50,919They wanted out, and now nobodyeverybody wants it. And so if you're19000:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,879missing out, everybody wants it.So I think the funny thing is if19100:12:54,919 --> 00:12:58,279you took the economic picture at thebeginning of twenty twenty two and showed it19200:12:58,399 --> 00:13:03,159now. I mean, overall,the economic numbers they're not much different,19300:13:03,200 --> 00:13:07,759but they're they're slightly worse, andoverall, yes, right. And also19400:13:07,879 --> 00:13:09,960the story was in the beginning oftwenty twenty two, let's not go tech19500:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,000stocks because interest rates are so high. When interest rates are high, that's19600:13:13,039 --> 00:13:16,200not a good time for tech stocks. Halfway in the year, interest rates19700:13:16,240 --> 00:13:20,240are even higher than what they wereat the beginning, and tech stocks didn't19800:13:20,279 --> 00:13:26,159care. They absolutely normally we seethere's a negative correlation, right, I19900:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,960mean, when rates are increasing stocktech stocks are going to go down in20000:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,440value, and that's what we sawlast year. Like you were saying,20100:13:33,639 --> 00:13:37,759but I mean now that navzacs twooff doesn't care what it lost last year,20200:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,279it's up thirty two percent this year. Yeah. And at the end20300:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,240of twenty two, again everyone,not everyone, but a lot of people20400:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,159were wanting to be more defensive,wanting to be out of tech, wanting20500:13:48,240 --> 00:13:52,600to be less aggressive. And wepointed out that there's only been two times20600:13:52,679 --> 00:13:56,919in the last seventy five years whetherthere have been back to back down years.20700:13:58,039 --> 00:14:01,840We said this, so the oddsfavor twenty twenty three being an up20800:14:01,919 --> 00:14:07,960year. I don't think we hadany inkling that artificial intelligence would just storm20900:14:09,080 --> 00:14:16,279into the room and give everybody Christmasbonuses. It's just amazing how dramatic that's21000:14:16,320 --> 00:14:20,759been. But money managers falling allover one another last week to make sure21100:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,799that they're participating in the hot areas. As we get to the end of21200:14:24,879 --> 00:14:28,600that statement, feriod, but werepeat, it's a very narrow rally,21300:14:28,799 --> 00:14:33,600so it's very fragile rally. Yeah, temper your expectations. We have.21400:14:33,759 --> 00:14:39,919The fear index is the lowest it'sbeen since January of twenty twenty, right21500:14:39,960 --> 00:14:43,960before the pandemic. It is closeto the lowest it's ever been in history.21600:14:45,080 --> 00:14:50,279This is when you find complacency that'snot good, you generally build the21700:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,759best market rallies. When people arenervous, when people are concerned, you'll21800:14:52,799 --> 00:14:56,200climb that wall of worry. You'llhear yeah. And I mean, that's21900:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,480what makes me nervous about this rallyright now, is that it could change22000:15:00,519 --> 00:15:03,639real quick, and it could dropfast because it is so fragile. Was22100:15:03,639 --> 00:15:05,720just a few stocks that are reallywriting it. I think the first attempts22200:15:05,799 --> 00:15:11,159to sell it off will probably bearrested because there are a lot of people22300:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,799that feel like they've missed this.Yeah. So I think those first couple22400:15:13,879 --> 00:15:20,120of downward pushes will be short andbe modest, but there could be a22500:15:20,159 --> 00:15:22,480bigger one coming. Well. Yeah. My whole thing with that is that22600:15:22,559 --> 00:15:26,480if you got a bunch of individualinvestors now on robin hood or doing it22700:15:26,600 --> 00:15:30,799on their own, that if theystart seeing these tech companies drop just a22800:15:30,879 --> 00:15:33,679little bit or start dropping maybe tenpercent lower, they're gonna get out too,22900:15:33,679 --> 00:15:35,360because they're gonna say, all right, I want to lock in my23000:15:35,559 --> 00:15:37,919profit and just get out. Sothen you start seeing it down, down,23100:15:39,000 --> 00:15:43,360down, And Todd you pointed outthat the economy today is probably worse23200:15:43,440 --> 00:15:46,759than it was in the beginning oftwenty two a year and a half ago.23300:15:46,159 --> 00:15:52,440Interest rates are certainly dramatically higher.The inversions, the yield inversion,23400:15:52,519 --> 00:15:58,879which is a warning sign of notgood things to come, continues to get23500:15:58,000 --> 00:16:03,679even bigger. This past week.We saw it go from we were at23600:16:03,759 --> 00:16:07,799one percent last week, which wasthe biggest we'd ever seen. Today it's23700:16:07,879 --> 00:16:11,240a three point eight five was theten year, and the two years four23800:16:11,360 --> 00:16:17,240point eight eight, So it's actuallymore than one percent. So that inverted23900:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,679yield curve, which again is iskind of the canary in the coal mine,24000:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,320if you will. And I don'twant to be too big. I24100:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,759don't want to throw a wet blanketon it, because it's been a wonderful24200:16:25,879 --> 00:16:29,840year, a wonderful quarter. Ourcounsel are doing great, our clients are24300:16:29,879 --> 00:16:33,840doing great, and we want thatto continue until we all die. Exactly.24400:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,440This is the whole idea of whatwe've been preaching too for the last24500:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,279few months is be cautious. Becautious. Yeah, I think I thought24600:16:40,639 --> 00:16:42,679optimistic Right now, I've got Igot a segment that I added a few24700:16:42,720 --> 00:16:47,879weeks back. What now, Yeah, OK, I get that, asked24800:16:48,120 --> 00:16:49,480quite a bit from clients. Whatdo we do now? What do we24900:16:49,559 --> 00:16:52,759do now? Yeah. I thinkthere's two things you do now. Number25000:16:52,799 --> 00:16:56,559one is the most obvious. Takeprofits in the high flyers. If you25100:16:56,720 --> 00:17:00,559happen to have a Dylan, Ithink you said last week, if you25200:17:00,679 --> 00:17:03,680had three percent in Nvidia, nowyou have six, bring it back to25300:17:03,759 --> 00:17:07,119three. You know exactly three percentApple, you know, have five,25400:17:07,599 --> 00:17:12,839bring it back to three. Takeprofits and hold your core, hold that25500:17:14,319 --> 00:17:17,480that core. And we've done thatthroughout the whole thing. And honestly,25600:17:18,559 --> 00:17:22,599we've been too cautious. We've beentoo cautious for this market. But with25700:17:22,839 --> 00:17:26,680that said, we have been sixtypercent invested in the market. We have25800:17:26,799 --> 00:17:30,920had our core. We are participating. Every one of our clients has nearly25900:17:32,000 --> 00:17:36,599ten percent in the SMP five hundred. Every one of our clients has around26000:17:36,640 --> 00:17:41,240four percent in the NASDAC composit.So we're participating. And part of the26100:17:41,279 --> 00:17:44,759reason we've been more cautious too,is because of a lot of our clients26200:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,720use their retirement accounts that they havewith us for income. So we're not26300:17:48,759 --> 00:17:51,319sitting there trying to gain as muchas possible in the markets. We're trying26400:17:51,319 --> 00:17:53,000to make sure a lasting through retirement. So we are going to put hedges26500:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,119on it. We're gonna put stufflike that on to kind of be a26600:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,920little cautious on the cautious side forthose accounts. You know, in Hindsights26700:18:00,039 --> 00:18:03,000twenty twenty, you zoom back toMarch when we have three bank failures.26800:18:03,480 --> 00:18:07,720I mean people were really worried.Yea, zoom back to January right with26900:18:08,279 --> 00:18:12,720unknown amount of continual hate rate hikesand the market going down. I mean27000:18:12,799 --> 00:18:18,799there's always there was true and therestill is true worries about this economy that27100:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,559cannot be ignored. Well, that'sa very point when markets are rallying like27200:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,759this, to only think it's goingto continue. That's a great point because27300:18:25,839 --> 00:18:27,559right in two thousand and eight,didn't Bear Starns go out first, and27400:18:27,599 --> 00:18:30,480then everybody thought it was back tonormal, and then six months later is27500:18:30,519 --> 00:18:33,240when the real collapse happened, withLehman Brothers and all them, and Bank27600:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,960Merrill Lynch going out and the dollarsincreasing right now, which sounds like a27700:18:38,039 --> 00:18:41,160good thing for us, but it'snot a good thing for most of the27800:18:41,200 --> 00:18:45,720world. Okay, when the dollarsincreasing, a lot of countries they have27900:18:45,839 --> 00:18:49,480problems servicing debt, they have problemswith their own inflation worries, and so28000:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,880when the dollar keeps increasing, it'slike building up the pressure in the financial28100:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,559pipes of the entire system. Right, and I saw a report last week28200:18:57,599 --> 00:19:03,519that thus far in twenty twenty threethere have been forty one corporate default that's28300:19:03,599 --> 00:19:08,599more than double the same period lastyear, and it's primarily due to writing28400:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,799interest rates. That's not talked aboutenough. Dave and I saw a really28500:19:12,920 --> 00:19:19,960interesting chart where it plots bankruptcies againstthe credit spreads. And so what a28600:19:21,000 --> 00:19:26,680credit spread is is taking the UShigh yield credit rate against just a normal28700:19:27,039 --> 00:19:30,240ten year treasury, for example,and seeing how much that spread is.28800:19:30,480 --> 00:19:36,440You expect the spread to be greaterin times of economy when the economy is28900:19:36,440 --> 00:19:41,119in distress. The reason being iswho's gonna be giving a really bad company29000:19:41,279 --> 00:19:45,079alone in two thousand and eight,right, So I'll give a bad company29100:19:45,119 --> 00:19:49,240a loan in twenty twenty when everycompany's getting free money, right, right,29200:19:49,519 --> 00:19:52,039they can pay that back up.But when the economy is bad up,29300:19:52,279 --> 00:19:55,960they're not gonna pay. So youhave to charge a higher rate of29400:19:56,039 --> 00:20:00,279interest on those bad loans. Thecredit spread is not moving, it's not29500:20:00,400 --> 00:20:07,039budging, but bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing, which means the market is not it's29600:20:07,079 --> 00:20:11,480not looking at reality. It's normallythis is a very correlated chart, and29700:20:11,559 --> 00:20:15,079it's not right now. I spoketo Dan this morning, and I should29800:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,440mention he's been gone for a while, a little over a month, right,29900:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,920he's going to be gone from thebeginning to the end. But he's30000:20:22,000 --> 00:20:27,480in touch with the office multiple timesa day. So if we were thinking30100:20:27,599 --> 00:20:32,240we got rid of him, thatdidn't happen. No, he's all in30200:20:32,279 --> 00:20:33,960the know of what's going on.Yeah, and the technology is such that30300:20:34,119 --> 00:20:40,240he actually has his office computer onhis desk in the hotel room. Yeah.30400:20:40,279 --> 00:20:41,400He can't get away from it toolong, you know. And because30500:20:41,440 --> 00:20:45,799there's an eight hour time difference,the market opens there at what two o'clock30600:20:45,839 --> 00:20:49,799in Portugal or two thirty in Portugalthirty you know, when he gets done30700:20:49,839 --> 00:20:52,200for supper, it's in the kindof the middle of the trading day here,30800:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,680and he's yeah, but they're inEurope, so dinner starts at ten.30900:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,799Yeah? Is that how they doit? At ten o'clock? That's31000:20:57,799 --> 00:21:02,640what they're saying, Oh, howdid they stay slam? That would just31100:21:02,799 --> 00:21:06,240yeah, walk yeah, and youeat it a lot slower. Yeah,31200:21:06,279 --> 00:21:07,759you had dinner for four hours.I like to go to France with them.31300:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,599Don't they have dessert first. Idon't know you're gonna feed me dessert31400:21:11,599 --> 00:21:17,119at ten o'clock. I'm gonna goto bed. Yeah, exactly. Interest31500:21:17,240 --> 00:21:25,119rate Paul again this week before congressionaltestimony reiterated that more interest rate hikes are31600:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,920coming, and that was reiterated onThursday with that quarter one GDP revision,31700:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,079yes to two percent from one pointthree, which is a huge revision.31800:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,319You don't normally see that big ofa jump, but that's showing the economy31900:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,720was even better than we thought inquarter one, which in the Fed's eyes32000:21:38,839 --> 00:21:42,039is not a good thing if you'retrying to lower inflation. And well,32100:21:42,039 --> 00:21:47,759again we continue to have a Goldilockstype of an approach from investors, and32200:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,319they just simply don't want to missout. They're they're picturing interest rates coming32300:21:52,440 --> 00:22:00,400down, they're picturing artificial intelligence drivingthe corporate profits, and they're picturing avoiding32400:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,640a recession completely. The bond marketis saying there, I don't think so,32500:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,799So somebody's wrong, and it willbe interesting. I think we've we've32600:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,799now had the price to earnings ratio, which again is just one measure of32700:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,519the market, but the price toearnings ratio as of Friday's close was around32800:22:15,559 --> 00:22:23,759twenty five times historic average sixteen.That's sixty percent. The valuations are sixty32900:22:23,799 --> 00:22:27,960percent above. You typically see thatwhen you're coming out of a recession.33000:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,240That's when you would typically see thatkind of a price earnings ratios when you33100:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,480expected earnings to be increasing rapidly.Right, So there's two things that has33200:22:37,519 --> 00:22:45,240to happen. Either, either corporateprofits need need to corporate profits need to33300:22:45,319 --> 00:22:48,759get growing in a hurry. Andwe're not in that kind of an environment33400:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,880where corporate profits are going to growrapidly because inflation is slowing. Right,33500:22:53,079 --> 00:22:59,279So the market is that I rememberAlan Greenspan's famous irrational exuberance. I think33600:22:59,319 --> 00:23:03,279we've all heard that term, thatirrational exuberance. And the market does right33700:23:03,359 --> 00:23:11,279now have irrational exuberance. Right,it is envisioning a world that does not33800:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,599exist at this point. It's supposedto look out six months. Okay,33900:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,039so six months from now, willit look better? Will the Fed be34000:23:18,160 --> 00:23:22,799cutting interest rates? Of If theFed is cutting interest rates in six months34100:23:22,119 --> 00:23:26,440it's because the economy has come toa grining halt that's certainly not going to34200:23:26,519 --> 00:23:30,400grow corporate profits. Yeah, we'rekind of we're kind of scratching our heads34300:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,599a little bit. Dean and Italked about this morning how this is.34400:23:33,319 --> 00:23:37,079We've both been doing this about fortyyears, and this is one of the34500:23:37,200 --> 00:23:42,720more perplexing times where you have thistremendous dichotomy between the NASDAC up thirty one34600:23:42,799 --> 00:23:48,240point seven percent and the value ETFsdown five percent. It's just it's just34700:23:48,599 --> 00:23:53,920so strange to also diversions in thebond markets thinking and the stock markets thinking,34800:23:55,000 --> 00:24:00,279the huge inverse yield which is andand the persistence of it. We're34900:24:00,599 --> 00:24:04,799closing in on the longest period ofinversion in history. So it's a very35000:24:04,920 --> 00:24:10,319strange time. And we'll be backafter this match. You We appreciate your35100:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,440taking time to listen to us thismorning. We got a whole bunch more35200:24:12,519 --> 00:24:17,200information. Jonathan Civilia, our attorney, is going to be here talking about35300:24:17,440 --> 00:24:22,039things, and again check out thewebsite the our website or check out our35400:24:22,079 --> 00:24:26,839website Greenberg Financial dot com for moreinformation. We'll be back right after this35500:24:26,960 --> 00:24:34,599break. Say it's a Welcome backto the Money Matters Show. My name35600:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,000is Todd Glick. I'm here withDylan Greenberg and Dave Sherwood. And what35700:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,680first half of the year it hasbeen specifically for the NASDAC year to day,35800:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,160it's up thirty one percent, thesmps up fifteen and the downs up35900:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,279three point eight. And so let'sgo look at history, right, what36000:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,599happens when the market's done this wellin the first half. What happens in36100:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,079the second half? I remember lastyear we actually had a really bad first36200:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,559half of the year and we allhad a a bet, it is the36300:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,680second half going to end up?Right? It's it never had before ended36400:25:04,799 --> 00:25:08,440lower then always ended higher. BeforeI had a hundred percent right, it36500:25:08,519 --> 00:25:12,039had ended higher than it was onJune thirtieth, and it just barely and36600:25:12,160 --> 00:25:18,039it did and again right, Sothis year, obviously we've had quite a36700:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,519big run up. And someone didthe study for us, so I didn't36800:25:21,559 --> 00:25:23,200have to do all this research,which is really nice. But the study36900:25:23,279 --> 00:25:27,119found that since nineteen forty five,the SMP five hundred has risen on average37000:25:27,559 --> 00:25:32,359five percent in the second half ofthe year when the index recorded a positive37100:25:32,400 --> 00:25:36,119return in the first half. Now, when the first half of the gains37200:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,599were greater than ten percent, whichthey were this year, gains in the37300:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,240second half the year averaged eight percent, which is twice the average of second37400:25:42,240 --> 00:25:47,680half of all returns. So really, pointing to history, we should see37500:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,640another good second half of the year. Now, of course, history doesn't37600:25:51,799 --> 00:25:56,559always repeat normally rhymes, as MarkTwain puts it, but it's one one37700:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,240little stat there for you. Andlike we always say about it, history37800:26:00,319 --> 00:26:07,319is simply a guide. There've beenyou know, August and September are traditionally37900:26:07,400 --> 00:26:11,400the two worst months for the market, and in twenty thirteen they were the38000:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,440two best months of the year.Yeah, but more often than not they've38100:26:14,480 --> 00:26:18,720been the worst. August, AugustSeptember are difficult. Now, July has38200:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,480historically been over the last fifty years, has been the best month the market.38300:26:22,599 --> 00:26:26,519July and historically July tends to bea positive month for the SMP in38400:26:26,599 --> 00:26:30,640the third year of the US presidentialsite. That's right, So you got38500:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,640that going, but you got multiplethings going. But then again, December38600:26:33,759 --> 00:26:36,960tends to be a great month,Christmas rally and all that. In twenty38700:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,920and eighteen it got hammered twenty,right, So I think I think you38800:26:41,079 --> 00:26:45,960probably say at this point that themarket's going higher until further notice. Oh38900:26:45,039 --> 00:26:48,559yeah, because the momentum. Youhave this momentum at the same time,39000:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,200don't chase it. Don't don't beinclined to chase it, because what's gonna39100:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,880happen is you're gonna jump in there. You're gonna say, I can't take39200:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,680it anymore, I gotta get inand then the market's going to take a39300:26:57,759 --> 00:27:02,119ten percent head er trickle. Don'tgo one hundred percent in right away.39400:27:02,119 --> 00:27:03,119If you want to get your feetwet. Let's talk about this. What39500:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,519happens if the war ends? Whatdoes the market do? What happens if39600:27:07,559 --> 00:27:11,039why the Russian war ends, theUkraine war ends exactly though, if that39700:27:11,319 --> 00:27:15,119ends, the market's going to takeoff. And isn't that interesting? The39800:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,000Wagner group is no longer going tofight in Ukraine. Weren't they pretty much39900:27:19,079 --> 00:27:22,759it? They were the front lines. I mean, weren't they the guys40000:27:22,799 --> 00:27:26,759that were creating the biggest problem forthe Ukrainian Yeah, there's a lot of40100:27:26,759 --> 00:27:30,240silence around all this, which isodd. It is if you do have40200:27:30,599 --> 00:27:37,519a war that's resolved, which Idon't see how that military industrial complex allows40300:27:37,599 --> 00:27:41,720that to happen. But say itdoes, right, what happens, the40400:27:41,839 --> 00:27:45,160market's going to take that very well, and it could keep running. I40500:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,039mean until there's something really bad,like another bank or the FED saying you40600:27:48,079 --> 00:27:52,400guys are doing bad, like hedid at Jackson Hole last year, where40700:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,759you know, Jerome Powe says youguys are going too crazy. If you40800:27:55,880 --> 00:27:56,920keep doing what you're doing, I'mgonna raise rates even more, and the40900:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,680market fell big time that week.Right, So right now, it's be41000:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,519long or be wrong. Right,It's that simple and so there. And41100:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,319like I Dylan, I agree withyou that there's going to be a pullback.41200:28:07,559 --> 00:28:12,519I think the first few pullbacks getarrested at a fairly short pullback because41300:28:12,559 --> 00:28:17,440so many people are looking for anopportunity to get in. Yeah, that's41400:28:17,440 --> 00:28:18,720true. If you see a threeto five percent pullback in some of those41500:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,839stocks, they will probably get in, I think. So I think,41600:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,640so how long will that last?And in August September coming up, so41700:28:25,799 --> 00:28:27,559we'll see how how much higher wecan go. In July, you've got41800:28:27,640 --> 00:28:32,599the SMP five hundred, which hasaveraged ten percent a year for the last41900:28:32,720 --> 00:28:37,039hundred years, up sixteen percent insix months. Is this going to be42000:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,920one of those twenty twenty five thirtypercent years. Let's hope so well,42100:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,119yeah, we want we want tohope so I mean, but at the42200:28:44,160 --> 00:28:45,880same time, we want to beintelligent about it. Yeah, we don't42300:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,000want to jump in full force intech and then we hit the high and42400:28:49,039 --> 00:28:52,680then all of a sudden everything drops. You know, I think it's hard42500:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,240to and the market is irrational,I guess at irrational exuberance. But the42600:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,680market can stay irrational longer than youcan stay liquid. It's all based on42700:29:00,799 --> 00:29:04,680risk and reward. How much rewardis there still to be made when the42800:29:04,839 --> 00:29:08,759markets you know, Apple just hitthree trillion again, the video hit a42900:29:08,839 --> 00:29:12,039trillion market cap. I mean,these companies have had a huge run up.43000:29:12,079 --> 00:29:15,359There's not a lot of reward left. And there's a way way way43100:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,119more risk and reward trade off.Go ahead, No, go ahead,43200:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,480go ahead. I was risal rewardtrade off here. It is not good.43300:29:23,119 --> 00:29:26,200It's not good. There certainly ismore downside than upside. And that's43400:29:26,200 --> 00:29:30,240the thing right now is a lotof people are not looking at their accounts43500:29:30,279 --> 00:29:33,000because or they're just like we'll staywith it because everything's rallying up or right43600:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,720now is an important time to lookat your account and make sure what if43700:29:37,759 --> 00:29:41,279the markets do turn down, areyou going to be okay with the holdings43800:29:41,319 --> 00:29:42,359that you're in. Do you wantto go more conservative? Do you want43900:29:42,359 --> 00:29:45,920to go more aggressive? Do youknow what's going on in your portfolio?44000:29:45,519 --> 00:29:48,279If you don't, you gotta cometalk to us and we can help you44100:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,720figure everything out and play it allout in a visual to make sure you44200:29:52,759 --> 00:29:55,519are comfortable with what's going on.Because I know right now everybody's happy because44300:29:55,559 --> 00:29:59,359the markets are up, but theminute they talent, they have a downturn.44400:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,759If you or too aggressive for yourown risk tolerance, you're going to44500:30:02,799 --> 00:30:06,240be uncomfortable. So now is thetime to say, if you need to44600:30:06,279 --> 00:30:08,039take some profits, you need totake some money off the table and aggressive44700:30:08,119 --> 00:30:11,880stuff and put it in more conservative. Now is the time to do it,44800:30:11,039 --> 00:30:14,440because you can't take some profit offthe table. I mean when you44900:30:14,519 --> 00:30:18,279have a risk and reward compared toa guaranteed five point four percent in the45000:30:18,319 --> 00:30:22,839one year treasury. Right now,you have a Vanguard money market which isn't45100:30:22,839 --> 00:30:25,880guarantee, but it's at five percent, right, I mean, these are45200:30:25,920 --> 00:30:30,079places where you can park money andearn respectable rates of returns. Exactly.45300:30:30,519 --> 00:30:33,759Why risk that for a little bitof a reward. It does give us45400:30:33,880 --> 00:30:38,359the ability to be more defensive.It does because we're getting paid pretty nicely45500:30:38,799 --> 00:30:42,880on our defensive holding. We're gettingfive percent or better on all of our45600:30:42,920 --> 00:30:48,519defensive holding, so we're comfortable beinga little bit more cautious here exactly.45700:30:48,599 --> 00:30:49,559And I mean, if this isfor anybody out there, if it is45800:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,759something that you've been kind of wonderingand you maybe start thinking, all right,45900:30:52,759 --> 00:30:56,519it's kind of getting a little overheated. Do I need to check this46000:30:56,599 --> 00:30:57,720out or change stuff? You've gotto come talk to us and we'd be46100:30:57,759 --> 00:31:00,880happy to help with a free financialplan that we talk about all the time.46200:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,359It goes very in depth with everythingand it helps get you on track46300:31:04,480 --> 00:31:08,559for your retirement plan to make sureyou are in line with your risk tolers.46400:31:08,599 --> 00:31:12,119That is the biggest thing in timeslike these when the market is up,46500:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,599because you don't know if it doeshave a downturn. And that one46600:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,599year treasury at five point four percent, that's the highest rate since two thousand.46700:31:19,039 --> 00:31:22,000Okay, rights it's bigger than anythinghappened in two thousand and eights past46800:31:22,039 --> 00:31:25,839five point four now five point fouron the one year. I mean,46900:31:26,279 --> 00:31:30,200when you're looking at I had talkingwith a client yesterday about this, and47000:31:30,279 --> 00:31:33,079he's like, it seems like youjust are kind of a better a bank.47100:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,519You get more interests, you getmore insurance. If I need to47200:31:36,599 --> 00:31:38,079spend anything, you just send itto me. It's in my bank account47300:31:38,119 --> 00:31:41,640the next day. Sure. Imean he's kind of got a point,47400:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,440right. I mean, you're earningmore interest than you're ever going to get47500:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,920at the bank because guess what,the bank's using the same bonds that you47600:31:47,920 --> 00:31:52,279would be buying, and you're notinsured by the federal government. You're guaranteed47700:31:52,599 --> 00:31:55,559guaranteed by the federal government. Andyou have Sippic on top of that.47800:31:55,720 --> 00:31:56,880Yeah, and Tippic on top ofit. Up to a one hundred million47900:31:56,920 --> 00:32:01,160with URBC housekeeping. From last week, Todd, you had asked, we48000:32:01,240 --> 00:32:08,000were talking about suv excuse me,electric vehicle sales of being eighteen percent this48100:32:08,160 --> 00:32:13,920year and looking at twenty five percentof all new electric vehicles next year,48200:32:14,279 --> 00:32:17,759and you said, but how manyelectric vehicles are out there? So I48300:32:17,839 --> 00:32:22,799did a little homework and of allof the vehicles on the road as of48400:32:22,960 --> 00:32:27,440today, seven percent are electric,which is a little higher than the thought.48500:32:27,559 --> 00:32:29,640Yeah, I would have said likethree or four. Yeah, that's48600:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,960where I would have been too,But about seven percent of all electric all48700:32:32,240 --> 00:32:37,920vehicles on the road are electric.And one of a listener called up and48800:32:37,000 --> 00:32:43,519he asked what we knew about autoinsurance on electric vehicles. And it's kind48900:32:43,519 --> 00:32:49,200of an interesting question because you thinkelectric vehicles are way more sophisticated than combustion49000:32:49,359 --> 00:32:54,720engine. There's a lot more electronicsinvolved, there's many many fewer places to49100:32:54,880 --> 00:33:00,559repair the cars, the parts areway more expensive. So what's that due49200:33:00,599 --> 00:33:05,759to your auto insurance? And soI check check with Anthony figaroa from Heartland49300:33:05,839 --> 00:33:12,480Insurance, and surprisingly not much.It is the and that could change.49400:33:13,799 --> 00:33:17,240Insurance rates on electric vehicles are notmuch above traditional Now that may be too49500:33:17,680 --> 00:33:25,640that most of the people driving electricvehicles today are elderly. Would you agree?49600:33:25,759 --> 00:33:30,880But I'm also thinking there could bea backdoor where the government subsidizes some49700:33:30,000 --> 00:33:36,759of those ev insurances to allow fornot you know, because if insurance is49800:33:36,799 --> 00:33:39,480a lot that would detract people fromwanting to buy evs, and so if49900:33:39,519 --> 00:33:45,759they could subsidize those insurance providers forEV vehicles, making it somewhat relative to50000:33:45,880 --> 00:33:49,400normal cost insurance, then that's notan excuse. And I won't say,50100:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,000I won't say that's not happening,but I could find I could find no50200:33:52,119 --> 00:33:54,559evidence to that. But essentially,you'd think, while the insurance has got50300:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,599to be a lot more because there'sa lot more of a problem to repair50400:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,480the car. But then you think, well, who are the drivers.50500:34:00,759 --> 00:34:05,799They're generally wealthy older people. Yeah, who tend to be pretty good drivers.50600:34:06,119 --> 00:34:07,920Well that's debatable, but yeah,for sure, I'll come on,50700:34:08,239 --> 00:34:13,639come on, now I have afifth of wealthy. Probably I'm certainly older.50800:34:15,199 --> 00:34:19,000Oil had an interesting week, pickedup a dollar seventy oils now seventy50900:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,800seventy, and the gold was unchangedon the week at nineteen twenty one.51000:34:22,880 --> 00:34:29,760The dollar going up in June hurtgold again, gold priced in dollars,51100:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,239so they moved inversely to one another, and we saw a rally in the51200:34:32,400 --> 00:34:37,119dollar as interest rates rose, andI got a gold stat go ahead,51300:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,920let's have it. Going back fromnineteen eighty two, I back tested.51400:34:42,199 --> 00:34:45,280I wanted to see how much didgold appreciate from nineteen eighty two to the51500:34:45,400 --> 00:34:51,320current price three hundred and fifty percent? Right, okay from nineteen eighty two,51600:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,039bro, you know pretty good.Compare that to the S and P51700:34:54,199 --> 00:34:59,880five hundred since nineteen eighty two,three thousand, five hundred and fifty percent51800:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,719ten times. Just take off athree, So the SP five up ten51900:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,280times as much as gold if youstarted at nineteen eighty two. Yeah,52000:35:08,400 --> 00:35:15,800yeah, and you probably could findAnd most of gold's rally occurred when during52100:35:15,840 --> 00:35:20,079a very short period of time,during a one two year period of time,52200:35:20,159 --> 00:35:23,360it always gold always hung around fouror five hundred dollars. The seventies52300:35:23,440 --> 00:35:28,280were that was like the big goldrush. Yeah, you invested in the52400:35:28,559 --> 00:35:32,119gold in like nineteen seventy one two, you had a really nice profit.52500:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,880So if you go back further maybeit's it's good. So it's not as52600:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,039good. Yeah, Bitcoin had abig pop the week of the nineteenth.52700:35:40,360 --> 00:35:44,159Last week a little bit of profittaking. Things kind of calmed down a52800:35:44,159 --> 00:35:49,199little bit. Um ability joined theblack rock chain doing that spot etf Yep,52900:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,599let's talk about a little bit more. We'll get back after this break.53000:35:52,840 --> 00:35:58,360We'll be right back. Thanks forstan tune say, it's all,53100:36:05,639 --> 00:36:07,280well, welcome back. You're listeningto the Money Matter Show. I'm Dylan53200:36:07,360 --> 00:36:12,320Greenberg. I'm here with Dave Sherwoodand Todd Glick talking about a great first53300:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,920six months of the year. Marcusended pretty up for the for the month53400:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,920and the week and the quarter.Dylan, let me ask you a question.53500:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,199What is the the highest return ofthe nasdacs ever had in the first53600:36:23,239 --> 00:36:27,199half of the year. Thirty onepoint seven percent. You're right, it53700:36:27,360 --> 00:36:31,440was this It was this year.The second closest twenty nineteen, twenty five53800:36:31,480 --> 00:36:35,480percent. Yeah, some of theseyears are interesting when you really look at53900:36:35,559 --> 00:36:37,719him. Right, nineteen ninety nine, twenty two percent. What did that54000:36:37,760 --> 00:36:43,079coincide with? Yeah, dot combodot com nineteen ninety five, twenty four54100:36:43,119 --> 00:36:45,480percent, which is kind of thestart of the doctor combo. Yes,54200:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,920nineteen eighty three, twenty two percent, which in the eighties we had a54300:36:50,079 --> 00:36:53,119very similar kind of starting point towhat we're seeing with interest rates. You54400:36:53,199 --> 00:36:58,920know, the eighties interest rates gotreally high, and then twenty nineteen twenty54500:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,039five percent. Right next year wehad the twenty twenty crast, so really54600:37:02,119 --> 00:37:07,679interesting. Obviously, last year NAZDACmade the record of having a thirty percent54700:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,719down in the first half return,so they're on the other side of that54800:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,960record after record in one way oranother. I want to go back to54900:37:14,079 --> 00:37:16,239gold though, because historically goal hasbeen the fear in next there's kind of55000:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,760the fear you push your stuff inthere if you're scared of the markets and55100:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,559everything like that. But it reallyhasn't returned much. I mean, if55200:37:22,599 --> 00:37:27,639we looked the last twenty years,what it was two percent roughly. If55300:37:27,679 --> 00:37:30,960you if you're invested in gold intwenty eleven, you've made like one percent.55400:37:30,360 --> 00:37:34,960Yeah, And it's the idea though, it's the old tale that you've55500:37:35,039 --> 00:37:37,760put money in You put your moneyin gold when you're scared about what's going55600:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,000on the economy, in the market, because it's going to keep up with55700:37:39,079 --> 00:37:43,880everything, because when everything goes down, goal goes up. And that's the55800:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,239idea. But when we go throughthe last twenty years of having two thousand55900:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,480and eight happened, having twenty twenty, that quick downturn happened. Oh that56000:37:50,599 --> 00:37:52,880gold really didn't do much in thelast five years, really hasn't done much.56100:37:53,159 --> 00:37:57,480But what has is treasures what we'vebeen talking about and that's where we56200:37:57,519 --> 00:38:00,280can take advantage of. If you'rescared of what's going on the market,56300:38:00,639 --> 00:38:02,840you can buy treasuries, get thatone year five point four percent, the56400:38:02,920 --> 00:38:07,880two year at four point eight percent, three year at four point four percent.56500:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,000You can get that. That's thesafest money you'll get. You'll get56600:38:10,039 --> 00:38:15,760a guarantee percent or return of atleast four point four percent over three years.56700:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,760And that's a better avenue, Ithink, in the sense of trying56800:38:17,760 --> 00:38:21,679to find safe money rather than puttingall your money in gold, because you56900:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,599hear a lot about gold right now, and they're selling gold. Everybody's trying57000:38:23,599 --> 00:38:28,960to sell gold because they're trying tosell fear all over the TV right exactly,57100:38:29,039 --> 00:38:31,840and that's what's happening. People fallforward, and that happens because it's57200:38:31,880 --> 00:38:36,400been like that for sixty years,and they're probably going back to the seventies57300:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,280and eighties when it had a coupleof years were jumped up high. But57400:38:38,400 --> 00:38:42,199there are other avenues for safe money. If you're scared about what's going on57500:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,039the market, and it's treasuries,and you hear it all the time,57600:38:45,079 --> 00:38:47,800what happens if the government collapses?What does that guarantee mean, we're screwed.57700:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,480All more issues in theory for aminute, right, if the government57800:38:52,599 --> 00:38:58,400collapses, your dollar, your gold, who's going to value it? We57900:38:58,519 --> 00:39:00,960are now into a barbaric time ifthat happens. Yeah, it doesn't matter58000:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,440about your investments. And that's theidea. That's what we tell clients.58100:39:04,480 --> 00:39:07,480It's like a lot more stuff isgoing on if the government is going to58200:39:07,519 --> 00:39:10,320collapse and not pay your interests,which they pay, you know how much58300:39:10,360 --> 00:39:14,840they pay out a day and interestson treasuries they've I can't imagine one point58400:39:14,880 --> 00:39:19,400three billion dollars three billion per dayper day. Wow, And they're paying58500:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,840it out and that's also I mean, that's part of our issue of having58600:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,920the debt. But they're paying itout and it is guaranteed and it is58700:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,599a place for safe money. Ifyou're scared with what's going on if the58800:39:27,639 --> 00:39:30,320government collapses, you need to finda gun, and you need to find58900:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,079a cow. And then we hearwhat happens and they learn how to fish.59000:39:32,119 --> 00:39:35,800If you don't know how exactly whathappens. If the dollars not the59100:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,400world reserve currency anymore. Yeah,we've we've put this to bed. Multiple59200:39:38,480 --> 00:39:43,559do that how many times because thedollar is actually gaining strength in terms of59300:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,440total transactions done in it, andthat's more fear from the news media.59400:39:46,960 --> 00:39:51,320They're talking about bricks, which isChina trying to make their own currency with59500:39:51,440 --> 00:39:58,480Russia and Brazil and Saudi Arabia andIran and at South Africa. Yeah,59600:39:58,599 --> 00:40:01,519in South Africa, but it's notgetting any theme. They're actually having issues59700:40:01,559 --> 00:40:05,480with it. It's not being whatthey think it is. And the dollars59800:40:05,559 --> 00:40:08,559still seventy seven percent of the worldreserved, every currency ever, every transaction59900:40:08,599 --> 00:40:12,079in the world. But if youjust if you watch the headlines and you60000:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,320just watch snippets of news, they'remaking it seem like we're the dollars almost60100:40:15,320 --> 00:40:20,199about to be zero. So yougot to do more research in order to60200:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,639have like to see what's actually goingon, you know, not chockingly.60300:40:23,719 --> 00:40:28,239There was a lot of news,as there is every week in the electric60400:40:28,360 --> 00:40:32,880vehicle world. We had a truckmaker, Lordetown Motor, had dropped ninety percent60500:40:32,960 --> 00:40:37,519in the last twelve months. Theyactually filed for bankruptcy. They had one60600:40:37,559 --> 00:40:42,159of the coolest stock symbols ever,our Ide. Unfortunately, the cool stock60700:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,960symbol was not enough and weren't ableto write it out. And we've talked60800:40:45,000 --> 00:40:51,920before about when you start buying electricsfrom Yeah, yeah, yeah, there60900:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,159you go. I was trying towe're not dealing one that. I was61000:40:53,199 --> 00:40:57,079trying to trying to let that go, but I couldn't let it go.61100:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,800Good job, good job. Butit's again, if you're dealing with a61200:41:01,480 --> 00:41:05,119electric vehicle, this a little biton the fringe, like a Fisker,61300:41:05,599 --> 00:41:07,360And I don't want to pick onFisker. Have you ever seen a Fisker?61400:41:08,159 --> 00:41:12,039Do you even know what a Fiskeris? Just? I love how61500:41:12,079 --> 00:41:15,239do you want to say it toFisker license? So it's kind of an61600:41:15,440 --> 00:41:19,760odd name. No, I havenot seen a Fisker. Yeah, where61700:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,320are they in Tucson? Have youseen one? No? I've never seen61800:41:22,360 --> 00:41:22,960a Fisker. And I go tothat lake quite a bit. So,61900:41:23,800 --> 00:41:27,599UM, I keep thinking I'll seeone over there. If I do,62000:41:27,639 --> 00:41:29,599I'll take a picture of it.I gotta I can't wait to see you62100:41:29,679 --> 00:41:31,280know what? They look like?A riveting conversation? What else about you?62200:41:31,400 --> 00:41:36,480These Tesla Tesla jump thirty percent inthe last thirty days as it appears62300:41:36,519 --> 00:41:40,400that their charging stations are becoming thegold standard. They do lose ground last62400:41:40,440 --> 00:41:45,440week m after Golden Snacks joined severalother firms in downgrading the stock stands too62500:41:45,519 --> 00:41:49,280much, too fast. Your Teslapurchase didn't help them. Wish I can62600:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,480which I can relate to? WishI can relate to. Right in the62700:41:51,519 --> 00:41:54,760meantime, Volvo, you know,a Tesla maybe the gas station of the62800:41:54,840 --> 00:42:00,400future, right because we've got GMwanting to use their charging stations. You62900:42:00,480 --> 00:42:06,840got Ford wanting to use their chargingstations. Rivian joined and then this fast63000:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,920week it was Volvo. All ofthose companies want to want to use the63100:42:10,000 --> 00:42:15,360Tesla charging stations because they're dramatically faster. We've talked about a lot on the63200:42:15,440 --> 00:42:20,840shelf um and uh so they they'reapparently going to become the gas station of63300:42:20,920 --> 00:42:27,960the future. Another electric car company, the Saudi Arabian sponsored EV maker Lucid.63400:42:29,159 --> 00:42:31,199Saudi's own seventy percent of it,todd as he is smiling over there,63500:42:31,239 --> 00:42:37,639but it is the Saudi Arabian lucidumdown seventy percent in the last twelve63600:42:37,639 --> 00:42:39,960months. They got to pop onMonday. Get this. They partner with63700:42:40,159 --> 00:42:46,199Britain's Aston Martin, which is avery high end brand to supply Aston Martin63800:42:46,360 --> 00:42:53,599with power trains and battery systems forelectric cars. And seeing more Lucids around63900:42:53,639 --> 00:42:57,480town. Yeah, unless it's thesame one that I just constantly see.64000:42:57,519 --> 00:43:00,599But there's there's ribvan pickup in townis cool look and pick up quite copper64100:43:00,639 --> 00:43:05,159colored. Yeah, I've seen itabout ten times too. I keep thinking64200:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,719it's something a new one. ButI like the Riffian trucks are cool.64300:43:07,800 --> 00:43:09,760I like that sweet. They getkind of a square, kind of a64400:43:09,840 --> 00:43:15,039box filikt them. Yeah, theRiffian cars seem like lowrider cars. It64500:43:15,159 --> 00:43:17,159seems like they're built to be thelow rider cars. I haven't even wide.64600:43:19,519 --> 00:43:22,639I haven't even seen one. Ijust saw the truck. But yeah,64700:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,519still it's still the ev market isstill in the very beginning stages.64800:43:25,639 --> 00:43:30,800It's constantly evolving, and any ofyour right, it's in the infancy.64900:43:30,880 --> 00:43:32,519And I doubt Lords Town Motors isgonna be the only one that goes out.65000:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,360But Tesla's still far and above theleader, and we're learning that more65100:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,360because of the battery or the chargingstations, the charging state. Who would65200:43:40,360 --> 00:43:44,599have thought that the charging stations wouldbecome the big deal, you know,65300:43:44,679 --> 00:43:46,800It makes sense because I think lastyear we were talking about Tesla's saying they65400:43:46,840 --> 00:43:51,199haven't come out with a new modelin years. Just really we're wondering why65500:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,440they haven't. The cyber truck hasbeen put on hold for whatever reason.65600:43:53,519 --> 00:43:59,559They're uh, commercial trucks aren't doingvery well yet the stock is just on65700:43:59,639 --> 00:44:01,639a tear, and we're wondering why, and we're seeing why aren't they coming65800:44:01,639 --> 00:44:06,280out with new models? Why aren'tthey just trying to innovate more like that.65900:44:06,679 --> 00:44:08,559It's because they're probably putting a lotof time and effort into the batters,66000:44:08,960 --> 00:44:15,119charging stations and expanding that. Idon't think anybody realized how significant that66100:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,400was going to be, except maybesomebody at Tesla. Huh. Yeah,66200:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,599they certainly have a lot of themaround. And again the difference being that66300:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,119Level one, you plug it intothe wall, takes you a couple of66400:44:25,199 --> 00:44:29,920days to get enough juice to goto Phoenix, YEP. Level two you66500:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,679get a home charger. Level twoyou can charge your car overnight. Level66600:44:32,800 --> 00:44:37,920three, which is Tesla, youcharge when you're out on the freeway and66700:44:37,639 --> 00:44:40,920trying to get from Tucson to SanDiego and you stop in Yuma, and66800:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,639you get enough juice to get therest of the way without the Tesla charger.66900:44:45,760 --> 00:44:51,920There are very few level three chargersin the country. Yeah, and67000:44:52,119 --> 00:44:55,079so that's why that's why they're soin demand, is because you don't want67100:44:55,119 --> 00:45:00,880to sit in Yuma for five hourscharging your electric cars. Yeah, it's67200:45:00,920 --> 00:45:05,079not acceptable. So I think,hey, you guys were picking on older67300:45:05,119 --> 00:45:07,360people. You know. Health insurancestocks have been under pressure for the past67400:45:07,440 --> 00:45:12,840week after United Healthcare, their CEOcame out and he said he's seen a67500:45:13,039 --> 00:45:19,599dramatic increase in the elective surgeries,many of them orthopedic, and that has67600:45:19,639 --> 00:45:23,519sent their stock down nine percent forthe year. The whole industry has been67700:45:23,639 --> 00:45:30,559under pressure. This is interesting.And then analyst at UBS Todd has done67800:45:30,599 --> 00:45:35,880a deep dive into these numbers aboutthese elective surgeries and he's blaming much of67900:45:35,960 --> 00:45:43,599the increase on the meteoric rise inthe popularity of pickle ball. So this68000:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,679need to have those knees and hipsfixed so you can be your best pickleball68100:45:47,760 --> 00:45:53,400player apparently is having it. Thisis a public service announcement that when you68200:45:53,480 --> 00:45:57,000get past the age of twenty five, there's something called stretching, and you68300:45:57,079 --> 00:46:01,159want to make sure you do thatbefore actually do Yeah, I'm I'm a68400:46:01,239 --> 00:46:04,559victim of that. I did notstretch before I worked out and I blew68500:46:04,599 --> 00:46:08,360my kney out. I've I've neverstretched in my life and that you've had68600:46:08,440 --> 00:46:14,679problems. So just no, no, wait a second, My mental health68700:46:14,760 --> 00:46:22,559has nothing to do with stretching.Please please do some stretching, especially when68800:46:22,599 --> 00:46:25,000you're doing this type of you know, pickle ball. You you're planting your68900:46:25,480 --> 00:46:29,760you know, your legs down inthe ground hard when you're cutting and trying69000:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,679to get around the court. Dosome stretching first. Stretching is super important69100:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,760and I had never done in mylife. And the water, Yeah,69200:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,679water is good, thanks doctor Todd. Water and stretching, No stretching and69300:46:39,719 --> 00:46:43,800stretching and super important. Especially soa lot of you out there are playing69400:46:43,840 --> 00:46:45,880pickleball. I know, we knowwho you are. And uh, the69500:46:46,000 --> 00:46:51,000pickle ball courts are full and you'rekeeping people up late at night and they're69600:46:51,039 --> 00:46:52,840going up everywhere too. I wasout of football tournament down at Keino a69700:46:52,840 --> 00:46:57,280few weeks ago. Yeah, theyprobably have twenty pickleball courts, just pickleball69800:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,920like it wasn't old tennis courts.Or anything. Something popped them up for69900:47:00,000 --> 00:47:01,840everybody to use his creat and theywere packed at like eight years. Anyone70000:47:01,880 --> 00:47:05,719wants to challenge us at pickle ball, I haven't even played in a couple70100:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,239of years, but I guarantee soyou stretched, Yeah, because you stretched,70200:47:07,239 --> 00:47:10,760so you'll be all right. Yeah. I've never played all yeah,70300:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,039whatever up a game. Okah,I've never played pickaball either, but I've70400:47:14,039 --> 00:47:16,800got a bunch of friends who andseem to enjoy it. Seems like a70500:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,800fun game. Yeah, it seemslike a fun game. And if you're70600:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,280one of those two guys that inventedit in the backyard, their dog's name,70700:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,840his dog name was picked dog's namewas Pickle. And I hope that70800:47:27,000 --> 00:47:30,599Pickle's ball right though it started it. I hope that that they got something70900:47:30,639 --> 00:47:35,159out of this, because it hasbecome the rage. And we'll be back71000:47:35,599 --> 00:47:39,079after this brief break with the secondhalf of I promise you Johnson Stabilia will71100:47:39,119 --> 00:47:43,280be here. He's run a littlelate. We'll look forward to Jonathan joining71200:47:43,400 --> 00:47:59,440us on this beautiful Sunday morning talkto welcome back. This is our number71300:47:59,519 --> 00:48:02,119two of the Money Matters Show.We're here on a beautiful Sunday morning,71400:48:02,280 --> 00:48:07,119July second, getting ready for IndependenceDay, getting ready for half a day71500:48:07,159 --> 00:48:13,079of work on Monday. Uh no, no work on Tuesday, probably very71600:48:13,119 --> 00:48:16,239little work on Wednesday. Wait wait, wait wait, do you have any71700:48:16,239 --> 00:48:20,000plans for the fourth I had atheme going there, right, I'm gonna71800:48:20,039 --> 00:48:24,199celebrate our nation's independence doing what.Well, that's the secret. Please just71900:48:24,280 --> 00:48:28,119eat a hot dog, you know, get a hot dog, eat a72000:48:28,159 --> 00:48:30,639burger. In tradition, a hotdog a brought. We're an American bandanna72100:48:30,679 --> 00:48:34,760burger, burger something to do somethinglike that. Right, So it's a72200:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,360good holiday. It's a good holiday. It's gonna be probably be a warm72300:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,039day here. I didn't look atthe will be forecast, but we can72400:48:40,119 --> 00:48:44,199guarantee it's probably gonna be a hundred. That would be my guess. It72500:48:44,320 --> 00:48:47,079will be interesting to see if themonsoon season, which the Weather Service a72600:48:47,159 --> 00:48:52,400few years back just determined starts toJune fifteenth, which is just complete bunk72700:48:52,960 --> 00:48:59,400um. The I thought started toofficially starts to June fifteenth. I think72800:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,719to September or fifteenth. Get over. That's not the like Douglas or something.72900:49:02,760 --> 00:49:06,400It's ridiculous. Yeah, it's ridiculous. It's now. It doesn't start73000:49:06,440 --> 00:49:08,920you in fifteenth, It starts thefourth of July. We know that everybody73100:49:09,000 --> 00:49:13,719lives here knows that that's that's kindof the official kick off of the monsoons.73200:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,639And hopefully this year and the fourthof July, we'll be able to73300:49:16,679 --> 00:49:21,639have some fireworks and then we'll havesome heavenly fireworks that'll bring us a bunch73400:49:21,679 --> 00:49:25,000of rain and we can we canstart to start feeding the desert the water73500:49:25,199 --> 00:49:29,599that it needs. We wish everyonea happy Independence Day. We'll hope you73600:49:29,639 --> 00:49:34,880have fun with your family and friendsand enjoy a real special holiday, and73700:49:35,000 --> 00:49:37,320be careful with the fireworks. People. Am I gonna want to hear about73800:49:37,360 --> 00:49:40,519no fingers being loss? So andthen that happens every year, and it's73900:49:40,599 --> 00:49:44,559in the shooting of the guns inthe air. I know, you know74000:49:44,639 --> 00:49:46,119who you are, not a smartthing. Stop doing that. That's not74100:49:46,239 --> 00:49:50,000a smart thing to do. Thosebulls have to come down, and they74200:49:50,079 --> 00:49:53,039come down really fast and really hard, and they can kill people. You74300:49:53,159 --> 00:49:58,000know, Just stop shooting the gunsup in the air. And if it's74400:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,679you know, one of the oneof the mysteries. First of all,74500:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,679first, just starting the second half, we recap the market. Yeah,74600:50:05,719 --> 00:50:07,800let's do it. You know,the dial was up two percent this week,74700:50:07,039 --> 00:50:10,960SMP two point three, NASDAC uptwo point two. Russell led the74800:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,960way at three point eight percent.But the interesting number to me is that74900:50:15,039 --> 00:50:19,079equal weighted up three point three percent, about an extra point higher than the75000:50:19,280 --> 00:50:24,320SMP five hundred. Obviously, theequal weighted SMP showing that the broad breadth75100:50:24,400 --> 00:50:30,880of the market took off more sothan just the more weighted stocks. So75200:50:30,239 --> 00:50:34,239normally the Magnificent seven was leading theway, because year to date you see75300:50:34,280 --> 00:50:37,840that the SMP five hundreds up sixteenpercent and the equal weight is only up75400:50:37,920 --> 00:50:42,159six But this week that equal weightedactually one out. Yeah, you actually75500:50:42,199 --> 00:50:45,159did have other companies rather than justsome Magnificent seven that did well. Last75600:50:45,159 --> 00:50:49,079week. You see Eli Lily.Yeah, they had that phase two complete75700:50:49,119 --> 00:50:52,960of their next weight loss drug calledstreet name. No, it's uh second75800:50:53,000 --> 00:50:58,079one True Tide and I don't alsoknown as Triple G. Is that going75900:50:58,159 --> 00:51:01,159to be an oral version of Mangerthat I didn't get? But that's that's76000:51:01,199 --> 00:51:06,039a kicker. I think that's thekey. Yeah, because ozempic and mojournal76100:51:06,119 --> 00:51:09,760they're injectables, and there are peoplewho don't like injectiles, it may be,76200:51:10,039 --> 00:51:14,320but what they said about it isthat people lost on average twenty four76300:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,159percent of body weight during the phasetwo trials, and if this can be76400:51:17,280 --> 00:51:22,639confirmed during the Phase three trials,which will be going until about late of76500:51:22,679 --> 00:51:27,719twenty twenty five, this will probablybe the most profitable drug ever, more76600:51:27,760 --> 00:51:31,320so than their turns zepetide drug,which experts already think are going to be76700:51:31,360 --> 00:51:37,360the most profitable drug ever, becauseif they can absolutely have people lose twenty76800:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,800four percent of their body fat bodyweight, the issue, Yeah, I76900:51:40,920 --> 00:51:44,440wonder what it is. If it'slike ozempic where you lose bone mass too.77000:51:44,639 --> 00:51:46,960Oh yeah, no, I'm wonderingif the drug does the same thing77100:51:47,000 --> 00:51:51,760as ozempic. Why wouldn't it.I'm sure it's a similar chemistry. But77200:51:51,840 --> 00:51:55,519anyway, a related story fiser Umweight loss drugs, of course, are77300:51:55,559 --> 00:51:59,639all the rage. Fiser gave upon their attempt to get a weight loss77400:51:59,679 --> 00:52:05,280drug give up on Monday Thursday,you know, Thursday, credit Swist decided77500:52:05,400 --> 00:52:08,079that uh Fiser, which has justhit a two year low, was a77600:52:08,159 --> 00:52:13,880good place to go from bye tohold. So you've had it as a77700:52:13,960 --> 00:52:17,079bye for un till you hits atwo year low and now you're going to77800:52:17,159 --> 00:52:22,119go hold. Yeah, that's that'sI love. That drives me crazy.77900:52:22,199 --> 00:52:25,039Are just the best traders? Whatanalysts are the best traders? I'm telling78000:52:25,079 --> 00:52:29,280you that you know the stock.The stock has a pe of ten times,78100:52:29,760 --> 00:52:32,400it has a dividend of four anda half percents. That looks safe.78200:52:34,239 --> 00:52:37,480But I don't know where the catalystis going to come from. We78300:52:37,599 --> 00:52:40,679were sellers. We talked about iton the radio show back during the pandemic78400:52:40,760 --> 00:52:45,719around the stock got into the midfifties. We were saying, get out,78500:52:45,880 --> 00:52:49,079get out, get out. Wewere twee me, the RSV vaccines78600:52:49,199 --> 00:52:52,440not going to be the new catalyst. I'm thinking not, but we were.78700:52:52,559 --> 00:52:55,199We were saying, you know,the time to get out. COVID's78800:52:55,199 --> 00:53:00,079waning stock could probably return to themid thirties, and guess what, that's78900:53:00,119 --> 00:53:05,039where it is. I've got afeeling that looking at the stock momentum,79000:53:05,400 --> 00:53:10,960looking at the competition, looking atjust the general attitude towards Fiser, that79100:53:12,159 --> 00:53:15,880you might actually have a chance tobuy it in the high twenties, which79200:53:15,920 --> 00:53:19,719I think would be a pretty attractivedeal. You'd be looking at a dividend79300:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,360over five percent, you'd be lookingat a price earn each racial under ten.79400:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,920I don't know, you're not gonnaget rid, just not gonna double.79500:53:27,280 --> 00:53:31,480But if you want to get asteady, predictable dividend with a relatively79600:53:31,519 --> 00:53:37,239safe stock fiser under forty certainly looksattractive. We had we had a similar79700:53:37,320 --> 00:53:44,000one that we were talking to aboutwas Disney Miss down fifty five percent from79800:53:44,039 --> 00:53:46,960Miss twenty twenty one high and downeleven percent in the last ninety days,79900:53:47,440 --> 00:53:51,800and Key Bank says enough, they'regoing to move from a buy to hold.80000:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,960All these analysts you know, ohmy god, the stock has dropped,80100:53:55,079 --> 00:53:59,159you know, eighty percent, seventypercent, let's go to hold.80200:54:00,000 --> 00:54:02,159I wonder why they're always so lateto the saying that stuff and that Disney80300:54:02,239 --> 00:54:07,159again, we talked about that whenwe've been we've been fans of Disney and80400:54:07,159 --> 00:54:10,400we've been wrong. But when itgapped lower, when it dropped from like80500:54:10,519 --> 00:54:15,719one o eight to ninety eight backon earnings, we said, you're you're80600:54:15,800 --> 00:54:17,639probably going to get a chance tobuy it in the mid eighties. Not80700:54:17,760 --> 00:54:22,280to buy it there when you seea big gap down like that, don't80800:54:22,320 --> 00:54:27,440ever buy those big gaps down nineout of ten or maybe nineteen out of80900:54:27,519 --> 00:54:30,440twenty, that's not the bottom.That's actually happened twice with Disney too.81000:54:30,480 --> 00:54:34,239In the last couple of years.It went from about one fifty five to81100:54:34,599 --> 00:54:37,760gap down to one forty, andthen it dropped to one twenty, and81200:54:37,800 --> 00:54:39,000then it stayed around there, andthen it did the same gap, but81300:54:39,199 --> 00:54:43,599down from one oway to ninety eight. And there's really a lot of interest81400:54:43,679 --> 00:54:45,880when the stock gaps like that.Oh my god, look at that guy.81500:54:45,199 --> 00:54:47,360I gotta buy that. You gottaget in. And what will happen81600:54:47,480 --> 00:54:51,119is that will create a little bitof a pop. You generally get a81700:54:51,159 --> 00:54:52,760pop off the bottom, could beas much as a five, maybe even81800:54:52,840 --> 00:54:57,760ten percent pop. But that's notthe bottom. Yeah, let things settled81900:54:57,800 --> 00:55:00,039down, yet still have the opportunityto buy it. It typically takes three82000:55:00,079 --> 00:55:05,159to six months after a gap likethat for a market for a stock to82100:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,719establish a new low. Yeah,a new base if you will. I'm82200:55:07,760 --> 00:55:10,800still I'm still a believer in Disney, though. I think Bob Eyer coming82300:55:10,800 --> 00:55:15,400back, he drove the company toall time highs. He did a really82400:55:15,440 --> 00:55:17,519good job when he was the fulltime CEO for about twenty years. He82500:55:17,639 --> 00:55:21,039came back a couple of years ago. Now he's trying to kind of redo82600:55:21,159 --> 00:55:24,599what they were kind of undoing whenthe other Bob for Chef Pecker how you82700:55:24,639 --> 00:55:30,199say his name. Park traffic isstrong, Yeah, they're opening in new82800:55:30,239 --> 00:55:35,599parks. The streaming service is strong. The cruise lines. The cruise line82900:55:35,719 --> 00:55:38,000is really picked up steam. Thebig thing about their streaming service, though,83000:55:38,119 --> 00:55:40,280is what they're gonna need. They'regoing to continue to need to build83100:55:40,320 --> 00:55:44,760original content because the nostalgia only lastswas so long. Where you're going to83200:55:44,800 --> 00:55:46,000go on Disney Plus all the time. That's a good point. It's just83300:55:46,400 --> 00:55:49,159I mean, you'll do it forthe holidays, you'll do it every once83400:55:49,199 --> 00:55:51,679in a while, but it's notgoing to be the constant traffic if you83500:55:51,760 --> 00:55:55,039don't create original content other than that, which they have some. But they're83600:55:55,079 --> 00:56:00,000basing it off of spinoffs of StarWars, off of this franchise that did83700:56:00,079 --> 00:56:04,199well in that franchise, they're kindof hanging on to people's nostalgia that's just83800:56:04,400 --> 00:56:07,079won't last forever. No, that'sexactly right. I like that. And83900:56:07,159 --> 00:56:10,000the cruise line business, of course, we don't have their numbers, they're84000:56:10,039 --> 00:56:15,039not carved out separately. But Carnivalhas doubled this year. Carnival Cruise Line84100:56:15,079 --> 00:56:19,920has doubled this year. Gained anotherten percent on Wednesday to a new fifty84200:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,719two week high after reporting a quarterlyloss. It was smaller than expected,84300:56:22,800 --> 00:56:25,800but the issue a strong guidance.I said, people are still wanting to84400:56:25,880 --> 00:56:32,599travel. We're booked up. Andthe biggest problem with the cruise lines after84500:56:32,719 --> 00:56:37,840the pandemic is not getting back inbusiness, but getting back in business and84600:56:37,119 --> 00:56:42,639charging full price. That's the issue. Yeah. Yes, they had to84700:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,320get back in business. They hadto discount. You just give those cruises84800:56:46,360 --> 00:56:50,320away, and so many of myfriends took advantage of it. Home.84900:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,039Oh man, there's people that like, if you bought one full price cruise85000:56:52,079 --> 00:56:54,760before they had to shut down andyou still had to take it, they85100:56:54,760 --> 00:56:58,159would offer you like another free cruise, if not more. Oh man,85200:56:58,239 --> 00:57:00,800They're just trying to get you backon so that it's safe. That's kind85300:57:00,800 --> 00:57:02,480of stopped, that's kind of windingdown now, and so they're getting back85400:57:02,519 --> 00:57:07,840to a more normal and Carnival Cruiseline stock is I think it was eighteen85500:57:07,880 --> 00:57:09,800and a half on Friday. Yeah, it's been as high as forty forty85600:57:09,840 --> 00:57:13,800five fifty in the last two orthree years, so it's got a ways85700:57:13,840 --> 00:57:17,119to go yet. And of courseDisney has a cruise line as well,85800:57:19,239 --> 00:57:22,920the streaming service. You make anoutstanding point about new content. You need85900:57:22,039 --> 00:57:25,880new content. Yeah, but aspeople savings get depleted, which we've talked86000:57:25,880 --> 00:57:30,840about last week, those travels arenot going to happen as much, right,86100:57:30,199 --> 00:57:36,280And so I would really expect nextyear the travel season for cruises are86200:57:36,360 --> 00:57:38,719just not as robust as they arethis season because there's not going to be86300:57:38,760 --> 00:57:43,840as much savings. I think myconcern with Disney and Fiser both is what86400:57:44,239 --> 00:57:46,440is the catalyst, what's gonna makethose stocks go? Yeah, I don't86500:57:46,440 --> 00:57:49,719know. I don't agree with thatthough, because cruises, once you pay86600:57:49,760 --> 00:57:52,280for your cruise, a lot ofit's all included. If you go to86700:57:52,360 --> 00:57:53,360other hotels, you pay for thehotel, then you gotta pay for food,86800:57:53,360 --> 00:57:55,320then you gotta pay for amusements.How you got to pay for the86900:57:55,360 --> 00:57:59,800cruise the first place. I wassaying you're gonna do it trips, Yeah,87000:58:00,079 --> 00:58:01,559to say, I don't. Ithink it's gonna be a little better87100:58:01,599 --> 00:58:05,000than you. But it's not.But economically it's not a bad deal,87200:58:05,079 --> 00:58:07,079that's what you're saying, Joe.Yeah, right, you're gonna do a87300:58:07,159 --> 00:58:12,039trip versus going to Portugal and andwhat grands said, Ireland hotel. Yeah,87400:58:12,199 --> 00:58:16,119that's my parents. They do theirown thing. So we had little87500:58:16,159 --> 00:58:19,559news on home prices. Did yousee that, Todd? Yeah, they87600:58:19,639 --> 00:58:22,199both were a little better than expectations. Well, I saw pending home sales87700:58:22,239 --> 00:58:25,440and new homesales number you referring newhomesales rose for the third Well, this87800:58:25,480 --> 00:58:29,039is pending home sales. I'm sorry, rose for the third strade month in87900:58:29,119 --> 00:58:32,599April. They're just two point fourpercent below the peak. I mean May,88000:58:32,719 --> 00:58:37,119not April, that's no April.The case Shillers is a lagger.88100:58:37,199 --> 00:58:42,000I was gonna say, yeah,home sales for May also was above expectations,88200:58:42,039 --> 00:58:44,960but the case Shiller report runs sixweeks behind, right, So I88300:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,239don't know who who's your word you'relooking at? But but yeah, the88400:58:47,840 --> 00:58:52,480I thought it was finally interesting.It's only two point four percent below the88500:58:52,639 --> 00:58:57,079June twenty two peak. I wasin prices. But we know why.88600:58:57,159 --> 00:59:00,599We've talked about it, right,We've talked about a lot about how people88700:59:00,719 --> 00:59:07,400are just simply coveting their mortgage rate, not their house. I don't necessarily88800:59:07,480 --> 00:59:09,480love their house, but but youlove their mortgage rate. Yeah? Where88900:59:09,480 --> 00:59:13,599else? How could you not?People with mortgage race under three percent?89000:59:13,639 --> 00:59:15,920How could you not love that?Yeah? You know, yeah, they're89100:59:15,920 --> 00:59:17,280not gonna get rid of that house. They're gonna just put stuff, put89200:59:17,320 --> 00:59:21,599money into it to remodel it.Right. So, however, housing price89300:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,119is going to be going down ifyou have nobody selling. I had had89400:59:25,119 --> 00:59:30,159a house come on the market inmy neighborhood, and full disclosure, my89500:59:30,199 --> 00:59:37,960neighborhood is a fairly desirable neighborhood FordLol, historic district. And this house89600:59:38,079 --> 00:59:42,360came on the market. It's soldwithin twenty four hours full price. Yeah,89700:59:42,599 --> 00:59:45,800I mean this was last week.There's no inventory. There's no inventory89800:59:45,880 --> 00:59:50,440to that Todd. That's exactly right, no inventory. So if you want89900:59:50,480 --> 00:59:54,480to house, you either got toluck out drive by when the signs going90000:59:54,559 --> 00:59:58,800up again twenty four hours, ornew home, or you buy a new90100:59:58,880 --> 01:00:00,360home. And a lot of thosenew home you know, we saw KB90201:00:00,480 --> 01:00:04,119home. I think it reached anew fifty two week kaigh, And I'm90301:00:04,119 --> 01:00:08,760not mistaken these new home builders arereally benefiting off the lack of inventory because90401:00:08,760 --> 01:00:12,519they kind of are forced into thenew homes and they're giving them a lot90501:00:12,559 --> 01:00:15,159of deals. They're buying down interestrates, they're offering you know, free90601:00:15,679 --> 01:00:20,800appliances like you know, the fridgesand all that. So it makes it90701:00:20,800 --> 01:00:23,000a lot more attractive. Free blinds. A lot of those costs that come90801:00:23,360 --> 01:00:27,800that don't aren't associated with the pendinghome sales. Right with the new home90901:00:27,840 --> 01:00:30,199sales, you do have to there'sa lot more costs associated, but with91001:00:30,280 --> 01:00:34,920the new home buyers already paying thosethat those costs for you makes it a91101:00:34,920 --> 01:00:37,039lot more attractive as well. Ithink one of the things we were looking91201:00:37,079 --> 01:00:45,760at to see the economy and inflationfrankly slow was a fairly significant decline in91301:00:45,800 --> 01:00:50,480the housing market, and that justsimply has not happened. I don't know91401:00:50,559 --> 01:00:53,719how inflation has gone from nine pointone to four. Yeah, with the91501:00:53,760 --> 01:00:59,079housing market continuing to be strong.Did you see the pc PC report that91601:00:59,559 --> 01:01:04,079on front Personal You want to explainwhat PC is versus CPI? Yeah,91701:01:04,119 --> 01:01:07,800So CPI is the consumer price indexthat's the one that everyone knows and hears91801:01:07,800 --> 01:01:12,159about on the news, the onethat's not reported because I really don't know91901:01:12,239 --> 01:01:15,280why, but it's it's it's justnot for whatever reason, it does not92001:01:15,360 --> 01:01:17,960get headline. It doesn't I thinkbecause they don't understand it. Maybe it's92101:01:19,000 --> 01:01:27,440the price consumers price that the consumerexpenditure, personal consumers consum It works similar92201:01:27,480 --> 01:01:30,280to the CPI. It's just it'sthe FEDS calculation of inflation. That's the92301:01:30,360 --> 01:01:35,599one they use to make their economicdecisions based on well. And the difference92401:01:35,760 --> 01:01:40,159is the Consumer Price Index is whatconsumers pay for things. The Personal Consumption92501:01:40,440 --> 01:01:46,559indexes is what everybody pays for everything. And the example I think that it92601:01:46,760 --> 01:01:52,719is the most clear is health insurance. Excuse me, medical bills. If92701:01:52,760 --> 01:01:57,119you go to a hospital and spendtwo weeks in a hospital and have one92801:01:57,159 --> 01:02:01,360hundred thousand dollars bill um, youmight pay five thousand of that. So92901:02:01,519 --> 01:02:06,719the five thousand is in the ConsumerPrice Index, the hundred thousand is in93001:02:06,800 --> 01:02:08,840the Personal Consumption Index. Yeah.And the thing that stood out to me93101:02:08,920 --> 01:02:13,599on these numbers was the core PCcame in at four point six percent,93201:02:13,679 --> 01:02:16,960I believe, and then the regularPC which includes food and energy, was93301:02:17,000 --> 01:02:21,360at three point eight Yeah, soit was much lower than the one that93401:02:21,480 --> 01:02:25,880excluded food and energy out of itscalculation. The good news is we're seeing93501:02:27,039 --> 01:02:31,400a steady decline in inflation. Yes, both on the retail level and on93601:02:31,519 --> 01:02:36,760the personal level, and from anumber of different metrics. It's just not93701:02:36,920 --> 01:02:38,519one number and you say, wow, that's not a good number. You93801:02:38,599 --> 01:02:44,639know that's wrong. But you know, if you're one of those investors who93901:02:45,159 --> 01:02:50,079has this goldilocks bowl rally in yourhead, you need inflation to kind of94001:02:50,119 --> 01:02:53,400stay up right because that means theeconomy keeps growing. So he wants to94101:02:53,480 --> 01:02:57,119find your earnings. Yeah, youwant a degree of inflation. That's why94201:02:57,159 --> 01:03:00,599the fedge target is two. Yeah, so you do want some flation because94301:03:00,599 --> 01:03:02,679if we go into deflation, that'swhere we really start to see problems in94401:03:02,800 --> 01:03:07,639corporate profits and that's when valuations reallyreally matter. That's bad, Yeah,94501:03:07,679 --> 01:03:12,599that's bad. M with the regionalbanks. So we talked about the back94601:03:12,679 --> 01:03:15,519in March. You mentioned the banksof the three banks failing, and of94701:03:15,599 --> 01:03:20,440course for a period of time afterthat, late March into April, it94801:03:20,639 --> 01:03:23,079was kind of walking on egg shells. Nobody wanted to be along the market94901:03:23,159 --> 01:03:25,519on Friday because you didn't know whowas going to go under. Over the95001:03:25,599 --> 01:03:30,199weekend and nobody has. No otherbanks have gone under. That's not to95101:03:30,280 --> 01:03:36,880say that banks aren't struggling. Butthe kr which is the Regional bank exchange95201:03:36,960 --> 01:03:40,360traded Fund. I watched that prettyclosely. It includes a lot of different95301:03:40,400 --> 01:03:46,280regional banks. It continues to reboundup a twenty percent off of the May95401:03:46,400 --> 01:03:52,679loll. Yeah. So that's that'stelling you that the market at least is95501:03:52,880 --> 01:03:57,800getting comfortable that we may have seenthe end of the regional banking crisis.95601:03:57,920 --> 01:04:00,559It's very possible. And while wespend time on banks, this week,95701:04:00,639 --> 01:04:05,800the FED did their stress test onbanks. This is I believe they only95801:04:05,840 --> 01:04:10,159do this once or twice a year, twice a year, twice a year95901:04:10,519 --> 01:04:15,960three right, And so the FEDestablished this test in following the twenty seven96001:04:15,000 --> 01:04:19,239two thousand and nine financial crisis.They formerly began in two thousan eleven.96101:04:19,480 --> 01:04:23,280And it's really just the Fed's wayto make sure that the banks are properly96201:04:23,360 --> 01:04:27,519capitalized to avoid any crazy scenario likewe saw in two thousand and eight.96301:04:27,639 --> 01:04:30,960So they kind of test against whathappens if corporate real estate mortgages at banks96401:04:31,000 --> 01:04:33,559have on their balance. See whathappens if they lose thirty percent value?96501:04:33,599 --> 01:04:38,760Do they have enough capital reserves tomake sure that their obligations are satisfied?96601:04:39,159 --> 01:04:43,679And again all the banks passed thistime in this bank test, but it's96701:04:43,719 --> 01:04:47,039not they don't test regional banks,so they actually the only test I believe96801:04:47,119 --> 01:04:51,039it was twenty three banks this year, three major banks, which was down96901:04:51,280 --> 01:04:55,400from previous year. I mean intwenty twenty two is thirty four banks.97001:04:55,800 --> 01:04:59,440And they changed the test a littlebit this year. They put a little97101:04:59,480 --> 01:05:01,159bit more. Um. It's harderto pass the test, they say,97201:05:01,639 --> 01:05:05,800because they put into some criteria thatnormally isn't in there is what happens when97301:05:05,840 --> 01:05:11,000interest rates increased super fast? Right, and that that wasn't something that was97401:05:11,119 --> 01:05:15,000included in previous tests. But thetest that was formed this year was done97501:05:15,119 --> 01:05:20,880before the March crisis, so theyweren't They didn't know anything about the banks97601:05:20,920 --> 01:05:25,559when they formulated this test. Andjust so anyone knows, in order to97701:05:25,639 --> 01:05:29,000be tested, you have to havebetween one hundred billion and two hundred and97801:05:29,320 --> 01:05:34,960fifty billion in assets, okay tomajor banks. Yes, And that's then97901:05:35,320 --> 01:05:39,199when people are like, well,I couldn't have fed know that the the98001:05:39,320 --> 01:05:41,320regional banks were going to do this. Well, they don't test them,98101:05:41,639 --> 01:05:45,360right, that's more on the regionalfed level, because regional feds people don't98201:05:45,400 --> 01:05:48,559know there's it's do you have theoverall fed or reserve. But it's a98301:05:48,639 --> 01:05:54,679board of governors and a governor haseach region of America and they all come98401:05:54,760 --> 01:05:57,880and help make the decision on theinterest rate policy. Well, hope that98501:05:58,000 --> 01:06:00,760that there's no longer, although youknow it's interesting. I do have clients98601:06:00,760 --> 01:06:04,000ask about it from time to time, Ask about the regional banks, ask98701:06:04,079 --> 01:06:09,960about insurance, that sort of thing. We are pleased to hear the report98801:06:10,039 --> 01:06:15,800that our insurance from our clearing fromOURBC is one hundred million dollars per acount98901:06:16,039 --> 01:06:20,320yep. And so if you havemore than that, we probably can't help99001:06:20,360 --> 01:06:27,239you. Yeah. One of theone of the stocks that's a mystery to99101:06:27,320 --> 01:06:31,320me. Maybe you guys can figurethis out for me. Occidental Petroleum is99201:06:31,639 --> 01:06:38,960a lagging stock. Warren Buffett continuesto buy the stock. He now owns99301:06:39,039 --> 01:06:42,480twenty five percent of the company.He's been buying it so much and so99401:06:42,679 --> 01:06:45,360long that when he announces he's boughtmore, nobody cares anymore. They yawn99501:06:45,519 --> 01:06:51,400and stock is down six percent overthe last twelve months. It is trading99601:06:51,480 --> 01:06:57,360at the same price that it wasin two thousand and seven, the same99701:06:57,440 --> 01:06:59,880price as it was in two thousandand seven. You think he's just try99801:07:00,159 --> 01:07:01,559years ago. You think he's justtrying to buy it all. Eventually,99901:07:02,239 --> 01:07:06,840the PE is not extraordinary dealing.It's twelve point five Chevron and Xon or100001:07:06,880 --> 01:07:12,440eleven. So the PE is alittle higher than the Chevron Xon dividends only100101:07:12,519 --> 01:07:16,840one point two x three point fourChevron three point nine. Makes you wonder100201:07:16,880 --> 01:07:20,039what he's season it. I mean, it's the high pe, low dividend,100301:07:20,559 --> 01:07:26,840low growth. I wish I knew, I knew I see a value100401:07:26,840 --> 01:07:29,760investor. He's a value investor.But I will say that he's been buying100501:07:29,840 --> 01:07:33,039the stock for You're right that thatsegment of the market is out of favor.100601:07:33,159 --> 01:07:39,960But then wouldn't you say that asChevron and Xon are also value plays.100701:07:40,400 --> 01:07:43,800That's why I tried to compare applesand apples here, and if you100801:07:43,960 --> 01:07:47,880take all of the apples, Warren'sApple seems to have the most holes.100901:07:48,679 --> 01:07:51,079Yeah, but you know, ifyou're going to ask a group of people,101001:07:51,199 --> 01:07:56,440which are these companies? Do youknow Chevron x Oxydental Petroleum. It's101101:07:56,480 --> 01:08:00,440like, that's the last one.I think it's more so probably people know101201:08:00,559 --> 01:08:03,880the name Chevron Exellon a lot more, I guess. I guess I keep101301:08:03,960 --> 01:08:09,320asking myself, what's Warren c here? And that's what I'm wondering, And101401:08:09,400 --> 01:08:12,320you're one of the same thing.Yeah, I thought, guys have some101501:08:12,400 --> 01:08:15,119brilliant idea. But if you wantto buy something that Warren Buffett is buying101601:08:15,520 --> 01:08:20,960that hasn't gone crazy, oxygenal patrolhim apparently is available talk in a year101701:08:20,960 --> 01:08:25,600and it's gonna be up like youwould think. I mean, he's a101801:08:25,840 --> 01:08:30,239excellent investor, has a big groupof people working with him. They're seeing101901:08:30,359 --> 01:08:33,720something in oxy that I'm not seeing. They must. Yeah, Amazon,102001:08:34,159 --> 01:08:38,560mid March, the stock was miredin the eighties. Remember that. Back102101:08:38,600 --> 01:08:41,439in mid March you couldn't give itaway. I mean, the socket dropped102201:08:41,479 --> 01:08:45,840from one hundred and fifty to eighty. And they had seen their day that102301:08:45,960 --> 01:08:49,640Walmart's going to do with the competitionand Target and you know they're having to102401:08:49,680 --> 01:08:54,359pay too much, they're gonna unionize, and it's all that. Their web102501:08:54,520 --> 01:08:58,640services business, which is what drivesthe company, was slowing and you know,102601:08:59,119 --> 01:09:01,199why would we want to do that? Everything was bad news And now102701:09:01,319 --> 01:09:04,600just like that, it's at onethirty and along came AI. Yep,102801:09:05,159 --> 01:09:10,239along came artificial intelligence, and ithas literally been off to the races ever102901:09:10,279 --> 01:09:15,760since. Stocks risen thirty two percentin the last thirty days thirty two.103001:09:15,199 --> 01:09:21,039This is why we scratch our headsand hesitate and have talk about irrational exuperance.103101:09:21,560 --> 01:09:27,399Thirty two percent in thirty days fora for one of the largest companies103201:09:27,439 --> 01:09:30,760in the world. You know,it's been Another company that's been quietly on103301:09:30,880 --> 01:09:34,000a rise is Spotify. Yes doyou Spotify? Do not? I do?103401:09:34,119 --> 01:09:38,239Do you Spotify? Or Apple Music? I used Spotify for podcasts.103501:09:38,399 --> 01:09:41,279Yeah, so I used Spotify allthe time. And it's been up.103601:09:41,319 --> 01:09:43,960So it's low. It's fifty twoweek low of sixty nine dollars. It's103701:09:44,000 --> 01:09:47,039currently at as a Friday was aboutone fifty two. It's more than doubled103801:09:47,079 --> 01:09:50,439in the last year. And whatthey did right now in the last week103901:09:50,600 --> 01:09:55,079was do a huge overhaul of theirplatform on the computer and the app.104001:09:55,439 --> 01:09:59,079They added AI. They added likean AI DJ so they started using they104101:09:59,239 --> 01:10:03,239dove full in into AI and theyfinally put it out and it works great.104201:10:03,600 --> 01:10:06,920But they've been on the rise prettymuch not stopped for the last fifty104301:10:06,920 --> 01:10:12,279two weeks. And since it's itdebuted, it's still under its IPO price104401:10:12,319 --> 01:10:15,399of one sixty three, but it'sbeen climbing back and no one I don't104501:10:15,399 --> 01:10:16,720see it on the news. Italmost it's just been doing this thing,104601:10:17,319 --> 01:10:21,039and I think part of it isbecause of the AI. Yeah, it's104701:10:21,039 --> 01:10:27,640amazing. We don't have any ideaas we sit here on July second,104801:10:28,920 --> 01:10:32,600how much AI is going to impactus. Well, they say it grows104901:10:32,640 --> 01:10:36,640exponentially too, so I mean howfast it grew in the last year ten105001:10:36,720 --> 01:10:43,760years from agatively and negatively. Yeah. It wasn't a positive and negative that's105101:10:43,760 --> 01:10:48,159for sure. Yeah, well itmakes life easier, but it's probably so105201:10:48,560 --> 01:10:51,920that's kind of ironic, right,We've going positive and negative in an electric105301:10:53,000 --> 01:10:58,720vehicle world batteries. Oh, Iwas trying not to laugh. I was105401:10:58,720 --> 01:11:00,479just trying to go on and moveon that one. But right along,105501:11:01,720 --> 01:11:06,760wasn't that wasn't that AI that taughtthe robots how to play soccer? Yeah?105601:11:06,840 --> 01:11:10,840Remember that? That's scary. Well, it's like the I Robot movies105701:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,880coming alive, from Will Smith's movieback in the early two thousands, they105801:11:13,960 --> 01:11:16,079taught these it can be scary theserobots start having a mind of their own.105901:11:16,239 --> 01:11:20,079They did this one where it wasa drone was they were trying to106001:11:20,119 --> 01:11:24,000shoot things down and doing a testand stuff, and then they started it106101:11:24,039 --> 01:11:26,960started kind of getting out of control. So the control tower trying to shut106201:11:27,039 --> 01:11:30,520it off and say don't shoot this, and then the drone they said in106301:11:30,600 --> 01:11:33,760like different words, obviously it gotmad and started aiming at the tower to106401:11:33,880 --> 01:11:36,199shut it off because that's the personthat was telling it to not do it,106501:11:36,560 --> 01:11:40,520so they could go rogue. Yeah, that's crazy. Well, I106601:11:40,560 --> 01:11:45,560mean when you when you teach theserobots how to play basic soccer and then106701:11:45,680 --> 01:11:48,920they somehow teach each other how toplay it. Well, that's like,106801:11:49,079 --> 01:11:54,680are you serious, room, I'mmore scared of humans. But if you106901:11:54,760 --> 01:11:58,239really want to get scared, youcan watch black Mirror on Netflix. Black107001:11:58,359 --> 01:12:00,479Mirror. Yeah, and that willmake you feel a full lud eight.107101:12:00,640 --> 01:12:03,399You will be up. You willnever want to touch another phone again.107201:12:03,560 --> 01:12:06,000Well, I get scared to deathevery morning when I look in the white107301:12:06,000 --> 01:12:11,439mirror, So we don't need ablack mirror for that. We'll be back107401:12:13,119 --> 01:12:15,640with a couple more segments right afterthis break. Thanks again for going.107501:12:16,720 --> 01:12:21,800Say it's a welcome back. You'relistening to the Money Matter Show. It's107601:12:21,800 --> 01:12:27,359been a jam packed show with agreat end of the second quarter, and107701:12:27,439 --> 01:12:30,319we're gonna start the third quarter comingup tomorrow with a half day, and107801:12:30,359 --> 01:12:33,159then we do have Tuesday off orfourth of July, our country's birthday.107901:12:33,359 --> 01:12:38,800It's gonna be fun. But thissegment we have Jonathan Sabilia of Edward Law108001:12:38,880 --> 01:12:41,800Firm. We got talking about Ithink we're gonna be talking about power,108101:12:42,039 --> 01:12:45,479durable power of attorney and all thatstuff in the state planning world. He's108201:12:45,479 --> 01:12:46,920a great estate planner and just teamedup with him a few months ago.108301:12:47,000 --> 01:12:50,359So how you doing, John GoodDylan, thank you very well. Happy108401:12:50,439 --> 01:12:55,039fourth tomorrow. You got any funplans for the fourth on Tuesday? Tuesday?108501:12:55,119 --> 01:12:58,920Excuse me? Any fun plans?Just making sure the kids stay safe108601:12:58,960 --> 01:13:00,399and get to see some fireworks.You get a couple of young kids,108701:13:00,439 --> 01:13:05,000so that's a try to keep theYeah, and we live in the desert,108801:13:05,079 --> 01:13:08,359so we had to worry. Iwant to buy my own fireworks,108901:13:08,399 --> 01:13:12,039but I'm afraid that everything's gonna goup and fire around the house. I've109001:13:12,079 --> 01:13:15,000live been a heavily wooded area,and my biggest concern is fireworks been shot109101:13:15,039 --> 01:13:17,600off and getting in the trees.Yeah, and you and you take care109201:13:17,600 --> 01:13:20,640of your lawns, so we don'twant that to go up in flames.109301:13:20,720 --> 01:13:25,439Well, no, and the trees. Uh, there's hundreds of trees in109401:13:25,560 --> 01:13:28,800my area. I live again fora little historic district, but down by109501:13:28,840 --> 01:13:31,399the river, so there's a lotof it's very heavily wooded. And I109601:13:31,760 --> 01:13:35,399always won every fourth of joy.I always hold my breath that sparks don't109701:13:35,439 --> 01:13:38,720get in the trees and start something, because you get a couple of trees109801:13:38,760 --> 01:13:41,600on fire, you could have allhell breaklets down there, just like down109901:13:41,880 --> 01:13:45,640about sixty miles south of here,Sierra Vista. Yeah, yeah, I110001:13:45,800 --> 01:13:48,880didn't you know that got so littlecoverage, which is shot can To me,110101:13:49,000 --> 01:13:51,960you could almost see the smoke thatshot. Yeah, they did.110201:13:53,279 --> 01:13:58,479There were houses threatened, our people'sevacuated. Um, your wife were forded110301:13:58,520 --> 01:14:01,239on it, right, So whatshe did? She she reported on a110401:14:01,279 --> 01:14:04,840few She's the one that brought itto my attention. So because you know,110501:14:05,479 --> 01:14:08,479she's in the news and I don'twatch a lot of the news,110601:14:08,560 --> 01:14:12,279so I get it firsthand from herwhen she comes home after a long day110701:14:12,359 --> 01:14:15,920and she was telling me about howshe reported on the on the fires around110801:14:15,960 --> 01:14:19,680Arizona. But it's it's nothing uncommon. We have fires here every year,110901:14:19,720 --> 01:14:23,680but it is uncommon for it tobe so close, so close to a111001:14:23,760 --> 01:14:30,279residence, to residences Tucson up northby Prescott. Yeah so, but you111101:14:30,359 --> 01:14:34,279know, um jo, I shouldmention that Jonathan has his own law firm.111201:14:34,760 --> 01:14:41,560You're not a Greenberg Financial employee ora self employed lawyer who is domiciled111301:14:42,159 --> 01:14:46,520within the beautiful office of Greenberg Financial. Yeah, it's it's been great.111401:14:46,560 --> 01:14:50,600I appreciate it. I have aspot over here that uh, you know,111501:14:50,760 --> 01:14:55,840working alongside you guys, not withyou, but alongside and see what111601:14:55,960 --> 01:14:59,039you guys do on a day today basis pretty inspiring and it's it's good111701:14:59,079 --> 01:15:01,720to see. It's it's nice tohave people I could bounce some ideas off111801:15:01,800 --> 01:15:05,239of in an area that I don'tum, you know, I'm not always111901:15:05,800 --> 01:15:10,600up to date on right then you'vebeen meeting with our clients. So we've112001:15:10,640 --> 01:15:14,239been meeting with some of your clients. It's a wonderful relationship we got going.112101:15:14,760 --> 01:15:18,560Uh first consultation with you is free. Correct. So someone that's considering112201:15:18,600 --> 01:15:25,159a trust or considering a will.Uh, you have a state planning abilities,112301:15:25,239 --> 01:15:31,000you have tax knowledge, uh knowledge, and you're an attorney who specializes112401:15:31,079 --> 01:15:38,119in taxation. So you know alot of things that uh the average attorney112501:15:38,439 --> 01:15:44,199uh god bless them, uh doesn'tdeal with. So we we appreciate having112601:15:44,279 --> 01:15:46,319you nearby. What's on your what'son your plate, what you been working112701:15:46,359 --> 01:15:49,399on, what's on my list ofthings to talk about? Um, well,112801:15:49,520 --> 01:15:53,279we'll get to the durable power ofattorney next. I just wanted I112901:15:53,399 --> 01:15:58,039did a cl this morning and theywere talking about the Secure Act. I113001:15:58,079 --> 01:16:00,199know you guys talk about it alot because it's uh it's very close to113101:16:00,479 --> 01:16:06,840your heart uh in your industry.But the uh continuing legal legal education.113201:16:08,079 --> 01:16:12,159Okay, So, and we're requiredto have a bunch done by June June113301:16:12,239 --> 01:16:15,399thirtieth, which is tomorrow. SoI'm cramming a little bit for so I'm113401:16:15,439 --> 01:16:19,720getting a couple uh uh some ofthose classes in, but actually had to113501:16:19,760 --> 01:16:27,159have it done by June thirtieth.June thirtieth Friday, right June thirties is113601:16:27,159 --> 01:16:34,079tomorrow, right, No, Junethirtieth was Friday today today, exactly Friday.113701:16:34,359 --> 01:16:38,119Well, we're on the honor systemhere in Arizona, so I just113801:16:38,239 --> 01:16:42,319have to have it done by Junethirtieth, which was Friday. So you113901:16:42,600 --> 01:16:45,680saying you got it done was enough, Like, well, I did get114001:16:45,720 --> 01:16:47,439it done. I did a bunchof ethics ones. But I'm you know,114101:16:47,600 --> 01:16:50,079just making sure, you know,I stay on top of things.114201:16:50,159 --> 01:16:55,520And this was a CLI that Iwas really interested in learning about. Um114301:16:55,720 --> 01:17:02,000so um. But with that said, um timing aside, Uh, you114401:17:02,039 --> 01:17:04,479know, I thought was really interestingon it. They were talking about five114501:17:04,479 --> 01:17:09,199to twenty nine plans and now thatthey get to roll those, if you114601:17:09,279 --> 01:17:12,680have it for fifteen years, youcan roll that into a Roth now,114701:17:13,239 --> 01:17:15,159yeah, and Matt Roth, itgets rolled into the kid's name, into114801:17:15,239 --> 01:17:17,520the kid's name. It gets rolledinto the kid's name, not the parents114901:17:17,680 --> 01:17:20,520name. I thought that was reallyinteresting. And uh, you know,115001:17:20,560 --> 01:17:27,399obviously they're bumping up the required minimumdistributions from seventy two to seventy three now,115101:17:27,479 --> 01:17:30,600and then the penalties will go downfrom fifty percent to twenty five percent.115201:17:30,760 --> 01:17:31,920Yep. And that is like ona progressive scale too, and a115301:17:31,960 --> 01:17:34,680couple of years it will be ournew RMD AGE will be seventy four,115401:17:35,039 --> 01:17:39,119and I think it's by like twentythirty two, the RMDAG will be seventy115501:17:39,159 --> 01:17:41,359five. Yeah. And one ofthe reasons why I took it, you115601:17:41,359 --> 01:17:43,800know, because I am I workwith taxes, and I work with the115701:17:43,880 --> 01:17:46,840IRS, and even though you mightget hit with those penalties, there's there115801:17:47,039 --> 01:17:51,399you know, if you do engagewith a tax professional tax attorney, you115901:17:51,520 --> 01:17:58,720might get those some of those penaltieswaived if if if you approach one of116001:17:58,840 --> 01:18:01,680us and we end up dealing withthe IRS. So that was one of116101:18:01,760 --> 01:18:04,439the things that I wanted to learn. I was learning about, is you116201:18:04,520 --> 01:18:09,199know, dealing with the IRS andtrying to abate penalties for some of my116301:18:09,319 --> 01:18:12,119clients. So uh and I'm gladthat you got you know, I'm still116401:18:12,319 --> 01:18:15,119you know, learning, Uh,you know what you guys deal with,116501:18:15,359 --> 01:18:16,640and you know how on top ofthings you guys are. And I probably116601:18:16,680 --> 01:18:18,840didn't even need to take the steely. I could have probably went around the116701:18:18,880 --> 01:18:24,760corner and question, yeah, wellI got to do it all the honor116801:18:24,840 --> 01:18:27,520system, right, uh So,and then we're you know, Dylan was116901:18:27,600 --> 01:18:30,720kind of joking around because I'm sharingthe office and I had some trouble printing117001:18:30,720 --> 01:18:34,239out some stuff, and he noticedthat I was printing out powers of attorney117101:18:34,840 --> 01:18:40,720for a client because we had wasa big, big lettering, yeah we117201:18:40,880 --> 01:18:44,439have I have some documentation, andI'm very front and says durable power of117301:18:44,479 --> 01:18:47,079attorney. And I kind of wantedto chat about that because it's a really117401:18:47,159 --> 01:18:51,359powerful tool, and it's uh comeup a few times this week. I117501:18:51,479 --> 01:18:59,039have one client who's who's uh blind, um, and she's having trouble,117601:18:59,359 --> 01:19:02,560uh, you know, getting accessto assets, and she doesn't really trust117701:19:02,680 --> 01:19:05,439very many people around her in herlife. You know, her husband passed117801:19:05,439 --> 01:19:09,439away and a lot of her familylives on the East Coast, so she117901:19:09,600 --> 01:19:12,600just has caregivers and she doesn't wantto give them financial access. So she's118001:19:12,600 --> 01:19:15,920asked me to be a you know, a power of attorney for her,118101:19:15,760 --> 01:19:18,920not just an attorney, but apower of an attorney in fact, so118201:19:19,159 --> 01:19:25,720I can deal with some of herfinancial situations. And you know, these118301:19:25,760 --> 01:19:29,640are important whether or not you areblind or you know, you may be118401:19:29,880 --> 01:19:33,960a married individual. Okay, Uh, let's say we live in a community118501:19:34,000 --> 01:19:38,560property state and you own some propertythat's jointly, all right, And then118601:19:38,760 --> 01:19:44,520you and then your spouse she becomesincapacitated and they're fifty fifty on the house118701:19:44,560 --> 01:19:46,399and you want to sell the house. You need their signature, you know.118801:19:47,000 --> 01:19:50,199One of the best ways to alleviatethat. Because you want to sell118901:19:50,239 --> 01:19:55,279the house, get get a powerof attorney. Have that set up beforehand.119001:19:56,199 --> 01:19:58,920Um, you know, uh,if you're not going to do the119101:19:59,039 --> 01:20:02,079trust, it's it's it's a verypowerful tool. It saves a lot of119201:20:02,159 --> 01:20:05,359money. It avoids, you know, a lot of times having to get119301:20:05,399 --> 01:20:10,359a guardianship. Guardianships can be veryexpensive because not only are hiring an attorney119401:20:10,520 --> 01:20:14,840for the person applying for the guardianship, but the person who needs the guardian119501:20:15,359 --> 01:20:20,760needs what's called it needs an attorneycalled that will basically make sure that their119601:20:20,880 --> 01:20:27,840rights are protected and the core processis uh, you know, make sure119701:20:27,880 --> 01:20:31,680the process is flowing down a straightline, so both attorneys have to be119801:20:32,159 --> 01:20:36,560protected. What this durable power ofattorney does. It avoids that avoids the119901:20:36,680 --> 01:20:43,800court intervention, avoids judges and attorneyfees and filings, and allows that power120001:20:43,800 --> 01:20:48,199of attorney to make financial and lifedecisions for that person. And you and120101:20:48,680 --> 01:20:54,079you use the word durable power ofattorney. The difference between durable power of120201:20:54,119 --> 01:20:59,640attorney and parwer of attorney. Well, a durable power of attorney withstands incapacity,120301:21:00,399 --> 01:21:03,000so hugely important. It's very important, hugely important. Yeah. So120401:21:03,319 --> 01:21:06,520once you become a capacitate, that'snext, that's where it comes from.120501:21:06,640 --> 01:21:10,439It's durable through that. Yeah.The big thing you said too, is120601:21:10,439 --> 01:21:13,680you got to get the set upbefore you need it. It's like insurance.120701:21:13,720 --> 01:21:15,880You can't do it after the fact, right Exactly, if someone's acapacitated,120801:21:15,960 --> 01:21:19,600then we're doing the guardianship, andthen we're hiring attorneys, and then120901:21:19,760 --> 01:21:26,039were makes a lot messier. Yeah. Yeah, we're filing into probate exactly.121001:21:26,119 --> 01:21:30,319Yeah. Yeah. I had aclient that I'm still dealing with because121101:21:30,399 --> 01:21:34,960there we are going into probate becauseher aunt finally passed away. But they121201:21:35,000 --> 01:21:42,600were looking for an emergency conservatorship becausethe mom was in the aunt was in121301:21:42,680 --> 01:21:46,479the hospital. I don't do emergencyconservatorships, and the only attorney I did,121401:21:47,000 --> 01:21:54,159no. They asked for fifteen thousanddollars retainer um, and I,121501:21:54,640 --> 01:21:56,359you know, I kind of instructeda late. I said, well,121601:21:56,439 --> 01:21:59,439you can pay him fifteen thousand dollars. But it sounds like from the doctor121701:21:59,479 --> 01:22:02,560she has about a day to live. So you guys can eat one more121801:22:02,680 --> 01:22:08,520day of the hospital hospital bills,or you can you know, engage with121901:22:08,600 --> 01:22:12,119this attorney and then you know,get access to our bank accounts, because122001:22:12,159 --> 01:22:15,520that's what the hospital wanted, ismoney to be paid to place her the122101:22:15,600 --> 01:22:20,199hospice. Right and then, andthe important thing to know about it an122201:22:20,199 --> 01:22:25,079attorney or about excuse me about apower of attorney. Uh, it has122301:22:25,159 --> 01:22:27,640to be durable. That's the onlything that makes any sense at all.122401:22:28,239 --> 01:22:31,760It has to be durable. Butwhen I had a call the other day122501:22:32,039 --> 01:22:38,039and the gal said, my sisterhas died, it's just the sister is122601:22:38,039 --> 01:22:40,960a client of ours. She said, I'm calling you to tell you my122701:22:41,079 --> 01:22:45,800sister passed away. But I haveher power of attorney, so it's okay.122801:22:45,560 --> 01:22:48,359I said, no, no,she has no parv of attorney.122901:22:48,479 --> 01:22:54,000She's dead. And and that thepart of attorney, whether it be a123001:22:54,119 --> 01:22:58,760regular power of attorney or a durablepower attorney, dies when the client dies123101:23:00,000 --> 01:23:03,159because they when you essentially, whenyou don't have the ability to revoke something,123201:23:03,720 --> 01:23:08,600it dies, right, exactly,and I had that issue recently as123301:23:08,640 --> 01:23:12,399well. Um, we did ina state plan, we did some powers123401:23:12,439 --> 01:23:15,760of attorney, we did a will, and we did uh beneficiary deeds.123501:23:16,319 --> 01:23:23,560And the person who was the POAafter the principle finally passed away, was123601:23:23,640 --> 01:23:26,640wondering why she couldn't get access tothe bank accounts and I said, well,123701:23:26,960 --> 01:23:29,520you know, that's why we putbeneficiaries on the bank accounts. And123801:23:29,600 --> 01:23:30,560she's like, well, I wantto get access to the bank accounts.123901:23:30,560 --> 01:23:33,079I'm like, well, you're nota beneficiary. We've already taken care of124001:23:33,199 --> 01:23:36,680that. Where the point was toavoid probate and you to have power of124101:23:36,720 --> 01:23:43,800attorney while the principle was incapacitated.And UM, it's important to know that,124201:23:44,319 --> 01:23:48,680all right, UM, that thepower of attorney only goes ends at124301:23:48,760 --> 01:23:55,000the at the death of the principle. Who is the person is the person124401:23:55,079 --> 01:23:57,479signing the right. And there's somethingyou have to have, like jan said,124501:23:57,560 --> 01:24:00,920something you want to have him inplace before these things happen. Yeah,124601:24:00,960 --> 01:24:03,640exactly. Life insurance. You can'tbuy a life insurance after any type124701:24:03,640 --> 01:24:06,840of ashurance. You need that beforethe fact. Jonathan, thank you for124801:24:08,000 --> 01:24:12,439joining us. Jonathan is here inour office. Um, he's a lawyer,124901:24:12,600 --> 01:24:16,239he had his own firm. Uh. The initial appointment is no charge.125001:24:16,880 --> 01:24:21,279Jonathan does wills, he does trust, he does very sophisticated tax planning125101:24:21,439 --> 01:24:27,079things. We love having him here. And UH, if you have any125201:24:27,199 --> 01:24:30,039needs along those lines, please giveus a call. We'll put you in125301:24:30,119 --> 01:24:32,439touch with Jonathan, and I knowhe'd love to meet with you. We'll125401:24:32,479 --> 01:24:36,960be back with the final segment ofThe Money Matter Show right after this break.125501:24:38,000 --> 01:24:41,000Thanks again for taking time to joinus on this Sunday morning. Jonathan,125601:24:41,239 --> 01:24:51,800Thank you Every Sunday guys say it'sall Welcome back to the Money Matters125701:24:51,840 --> 01:24:56,279Show. My name is Todd Blick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Dave125801:24:56,359 --> 01:25:00,880Sherwood. What a fun week.Now and you could see a that gains125901:25:00,920 --> 01:25:03,039over two percent, we'll see toomany of them. No, it's and126001:25:03,319 --> 01:25:05,960I will say, we did notsee this coming. We did not see126101:25:06,119 --> 01:25:10,760this kind of a first half.The the interest rates are rising, the126201:25:10,840 --> 01:25:15,319economy is slowing, they're trying tobring inflation down. Many corporations that have126301:25:15,479 --> 01:25:21,319reported earnings have reported disappointing guidance,suggesting things are slowing down. It's not126401:25:21,439 --> 01:25:25,720an environment where you would expect themarket to be setting a new fifty two126501:25:25,760 --> 01:25:29,720weeks high, but it did.Yeah, and people still continue to go126601:25:29,840 --> 01:25:32,239into those megacap tech stocks, right, I mean, right here, I126701:25:32,319 --> 01:25:40,119have a charge shows that hedge fundmanagers are overweight megacap tech stocks the most126801:25:40,199 --> 01:25:44,640since twenty twenty. Those are youknow, your Apples and Amazon's, Google,126901:25:44,720 --> 01:25:48,640Meta Microsoft. It makes sense too. We've pointed out constantly the difference127001:25:48,680 --> 01:25:53,840between the s and P five hundredand equal weighted. Everyone is loading into127101:25:53,880 --> 01:25:57,439that. A lot of people thesenames had a good day on Friday because127201:25:57,720 --> 01:26:00,359if hedge fund managers were in thereduring that quarter, guess what they're doing.127301:26:00,439 --> 01:26:03,239They're buying those stocks so they canshow at the end of the quarter127401:26:03,319 --> 01:26:05,880that they have that they owned it. And that's what it was on Friday.127501:26:06,439 --> 01:26:11,119All of the big winners for theyear were up big on Friday.127601:26:11,199 --> 01:26:14,840Yeah, I mean Apple hit overthree trillion dollars market act because in the127701:26:14,920 --> 01:26:17,039portfolio. They wanted to show thaton their quarters, which would be a127801:26:17,079 --> 01:26:21,159shock if Apple hasn't been part oftheir portfolio. And yes, you know,127901:26:21,239 --> 01:26:25,600one of the sectors that has beenlagging the SMP five hundred is the128001:26:25,680 --> 01:26:31,960consumer staples est of the SMP,and those are things like Walmart and Target128101:26:32,159 --> 01:26:36,840and Altria, Philip Morris, thosetype of stocks, the recession proof stocks,128201:26:36,960 --> 01:26:40,600as they say, right, yeah, well I saw an interesting UH128301:26:41,319 --> 01:26:45,319insight where insiders, corporate insiders,you you get to see their buy or128401:26:45,399 --> 01:26:49,399sell in the ratio of which andright now they're buying a lot. The128501:26:49,520 --> 01:26:55,720corporate insiders of consumer staple companies arebuying a lot right now, and normally128601:26:55,800 --> 01:27:00,600when they do there's a very successfulrin rate and also trailing which you want128701:27:00,600 --> 01:27:06,399to look for opportunities that aren't informationtechnology right, which is well exceeded the128801:27:06,720 --> 01:27:10,880S and P five hundred returns.You want to try to find some areas128901:27:10,960 --> 01:27:13,760that maybe have a chance to comeback. I mean, really, we129001:27:13,840 --> 01:27:17,560saw that coming into twenty twenty three, technology was terrible. You go into129101:27:17,600 --> 01:27:21,800technology that went great. Energy wasthe best performing in twenty right, and129201:27:23,039 --> 01:27:26,680it went opposite. So sometimes itmakes sense to try to find the areas129301:27:26,720 --> 01:27:30,159that haven't been performing as well,things like we've already pointed out with value129401:27:30,199 --> 01:27:34,680stocks down four percent on the yearon average, with those ETFs, Eventually129501:27:34,800 --> 01:27:40,079these stocks will come back and theother stocks that are have these meteortic rises129601:27:40,119 --> 01:27:43,640will come back to gravity as well. One of the stocks in that segment129701:27:43,840 --> 01:27:46,760is three M. That's one ofthe worst performing dallastocks. It was one129801:27:46,760 --> 01:27:50,880of the worst performing dallastocks last year. It's one of the worst performing dallastocks129901:27:50,960 --> 01:27:56,960this year. They've been mired inlitigation that has took the stock down to130001:27:57,119 --> 01:28:00,439levels not seen in ten years,hit a ten year low. They got130101:28:00,520 --> 01:28:05,800a bump this week after last weekafter reporting they've reached a ten billion dollars130201:28:05,880 --> 01:28:13,560settlement with US towns and cities overa claim that contaminated drinking water where Forever130301:28:13,720 --> 01:28:16,199chemicals so called forever Chemicals. Haveyou heard about those or not? But130401:28:16,239 --> 01:28:20,199if you haven't google them, it'sForever Chemicals. The stock is trading at130501:28:20,239 --> 01:28:25,520twelve times earnings as a dividend ofsix percent. That appears to be safe.130601:28:26,760 --> 01:28:30,800They still have the military hearing aidlawsuit hanging over their head, but130701:28:30,960 --> 01:28:35,600they did settle one of the majorlawsuits that many thought they might not be130801:28:35,720 --> 01:28:40,720able to settle and stay in business. And they settle up for ten billions,130901:28:40,920 --> 01:28:44,760which the three M is workable ifthey can get a settlement of the131001:28:44,920 --> 01:28:47,920hearing aid deal that might be astock, but that's the kind of stock131101:28:48,039 --> 01:28:54,640that is just languishing right now inthis market that's on fire. Yeah.131201:28:54,800 --> 01:29:00,760Another one's Walgreens DAL component already downthirteen percent this year. Walgreen dropped to131301:29:00,840 --> 01:29:06,199a thirteen year lull. Thirteen yearlull last week at the end of COVID131401:29:06,640 --> 01:29:12,760has seen a decrease to start trafficand Amazon making big strides in the prescription131501:29:12,840 --> 01:29:15,439business. You know, I don'tsee new Walgerens popping up around Tucson.131601:29:15,520 --> 01:29:19,119Have you noticed that it's always needspops up, Yeah, not new ones131701:29:19,159 --> 01:29:24,880being build. Deutsche Bank I lovethis. Deutsche Bank decides that a thirteen131801:29:25,000 --> 01:29:28,680year lull is a good place togo from buy to hold. Well,131901:29:28,720 --> 01:29:32,520speaking of dotche Bank, they cameout with a recession probability factor of one132001:29:32,560 --> 01:29:36,279hundred percent within the next twelve months. There's a they say there's one hundred132101:29:36,319 --> 01:29:43,399percent probability level recession. That's accordingdotche Bank, and recessions have historically come132201:29:43,520 --> 01:29:48,039every four years throughout our economic cycles. The last one was the shortest one132301:29:48,079 --> 01:29:51,159in history, which was March oftwenty twenty. Right, Yeah, I132401:29:51,239 --> 01:29:56,000mean in theory you could go intoin the next year and the year after132501:29:56,119 --> 01:29:59,600without a recession, but a recessionin the next twelve months. When you132601:29:59,680 --> 01:30:02,239look at the inverted yield curve,I would say one hundred percent might be132701:30:02,279 --> 01:30:08,479a little strong, but ninety nine. Yeah, you're saying the Amazon Pharmaceuticals132801:30:08,640 --> 01:30:12,680is done a little bit better thanhow they're making they're doing. They're still132901:30:12,720 --> 01:30:15,600struggling, and Whole Foods is stillstruggling. There are parts of Amazon that133001:30:15,680 --> 01:30:18,000are not on fire. Right.If you're going to a recession, Whole133101:30:18,000 --> 01:30:21,359Foods is going to probably continue tostruggle as well, because that's pricier food.133201:30:21,600 --> 01:30:26,760It is pricier and you and it'snot really a groceries what's the word133301:30:26,760 --> 01:30:30,960I want to use. If youneed groceries, Whole Foods probably isn't some133401:30:30,039 --> 01:30:34,439place to go because you're gonna havea hard time finding catchup, you know.133501:30:34,600 --> 01:30:40,279It's it's all all kind of oneoff. I'm not sure frankly who133601:30:40,359 --> 01:30:43,680shops there, but there's one amile from my house and I'm in there133701:30:44,239 --> 01:30:48,960probably once a week to buy fruitor or meat or something some kind.133801:30:49,039 --> 01:30:53,479But when I got down the eyewine selection. Yeah, but if you133901:30:53,520 --> 01:30:55,439know, if I need my wifesaid, oh, we're out of catch134001:30:55,520 --> 01:30:58,399up front on this. I'm gonnahave to go three miles to the fries134101:30:58,439 --> 01:31:00,920to get catch up. I'm gonnafind catch up a whole Foods, find134201:31:01,000 --> 01:31:04,319some organic catch I'll find some organyou don't even know it's catch up or134301:31:04,399 --> 01:31:10,439mixed with mustard or some some somegoofy goofy thing, you know. But134401:31:10,640 --> 01:31:13,239you know, they do have wonderfulpastries. It's a good wine rack.134501:31:13,359 --> 01:31:15,640They have a lot of fresh foodthere. It's a nice store. I134601:31:15,680 --> 01:31:18,560don't want to dis I mean,if you've eaten there too, it's got134701:31:18,640 --> 01:31:21,039good food. They have an actualrestaurant. You've absolutely there, and I134801:31:21,159 --> 01:31:26,520know it's good. It's good.I don't dislike like As really, but134901:31:26,640 --> 01:31:30,399like a nation. It's like aworldwide Aja's and it's I'm not sure what135001:31:30,520 --> 01:31:33,520it is. It's somewhere it's Idon't know. I like Ajas better than135101:31:33,600 --> 01:31:38,760Whole Foods, but that's just that'sjust me. And maybe it's because I135201:31:38,840 --> 01:31:42,119grew up. Ajas is more boutiquebecause it's only in Arizona. Yeah it135301:31:42,279 --> 01:31:45,239is, it is. Yeah,either way, they got good food and135401:31:45,640 --> 01:31:48,399you know, it's not a regulargrocery store as my point, Nope,135501:31:48,760 --> 01:31:54,000kroger that's what you got, aKroger's and video still continues to run the135601:31:54,079 --> 01:32:00,640world again. They have the chipthat everybody wants for ai and they're scrambling135701:32:00,680 --> 01:32:03,159to get it. They up onehundred and ninety percent this year. Finally135801:32:03,279 --> 01:32:09,600found some sellers on Monday that tookabout five percent off that rally. No135901:32:09,800 --> 01:32:15,199particular news, it's just been goinghigher on no news. Biden came out136001:32:15,239 --> 01:32:18,439and said, may have more restrictions. You may recall a couple months back,136101:32:18,760 --> 01:32:26,199Biden restricted shipment of high end shipsto China. They're really concerned with136201:32:26,479 --> 01:32:30,399China being able to compete with uson chips, on computer chips which run136301:32:30,520 --> 01:32:35,920everything right, and China is notcompeting with us very well. We control136401:32:36,000 --> 01:32:41,960the high end ship market, butTaiwan actually manufactures most of those chips.136501:32:42,720 --> 01:32:45,680I can't remember what the number was, but something like ninety percent of all136601:32:45,760 --> 01:32:49,520of the high end ships in theworld were developed here, and I think136701:32:49,560 --> 01:32:54,479it was seventy percent and ninety percentof those chips are manufactured in Taiwan.136801:32:54,560 --> 01:32:58,479Well, that's why so beneficial thatTaiwan is opening their factories up in Phoenix.136901:32:58,640 --> 01:33:00,560Yes, it's going to make everythinga lot quicker, right, and137001:33:00,800 --> 01:33:06,720and Biden came out when Biden putthose restrictions on UH and Vidia came up137101:33:06,800 --> 01:33:15,319with a chip similar to their bigh the H one hundred, which runs137201:33:15,359 --> 01:33:20,159all of the artificial intelligence. Theycame up with a chip that wasn't enough137301:33:20,439 --> 01:33:25,520different from that that the US regulatorscity, Yeah, that'll work, you137401:33:25,640 --> 01:33:29,520can sell that to China. UMAnd then what Biden did this past week137501:33:29,680 --> 01:33:32,680is he came out and he saidhe said, they're thinking about restrictions on137601:33:32,800 --> 01:33:36,520those chips now. Well, theA one hundred, oh, is that137701:33:36,560 --> 01:33:43,079the newest one one hundred was notthe newest one that's been selling out.137801:33:43,119 --> 01:33:47,119That was their previous large learning oneone hundred is the newest one? Is137901:33:47,159 --> 01:33:50,840that the one they altered to sellthe China one they re engineered so it138001:33:50,840 --> 01:33:56,000would be acceptable. Chin went toChina has a different it's like a different138101:33:56,079 --> 01:33:57,840you know what I'm saying. Yeah, but did they kind of take it138201:33:57,960 --> 01:34:00,239from the newest one at the madeit less power? I was gonna say,138301:34:00,239 --> 01:34:02,399if they took it from the onehundred, that's already outdated. Anyways,138401:34:02,439 --> 01:34:05,279they've moved on it just made itI guess the point is that the138501:34:05,319 --> 01:34:11,199biggest problem for Nvidia is demand isfar exceeds supply, so that whether far138601:34:11,600 --> 01:34:14,840whether China can't get them or not, it's really at this point for them138701:34:15,159 --> 01:34:16,760matters not. I think it's agood thing we have these restrictions because if138801:34:16,920 --> 01:34:19,640you look at history, what isChina do? They think what we did138901:34:19,720 --> 01:34:23,720really well and they just copy itwell and they've gone from five percent of139001:34:23,800 --> 01:34:27,039the world chip market to twenty fivepercent in the last twelve years. Well,139101:34:27,039 --> 01:34:30,960we've gone from fifty to thirty.So it's been going the wrong direction.139201:34:30,399 --> 01:34:33,319Well, I don't know how manythings Biden's done right, I probably139301:34:33,359 --> 01:34:36,359can kind of. On one hand, that Chip Act was very important.139401:34:36,399 --> 01:34:40,319I liked it. I liked theChip chip. I think the Chip thing139501:34:40,439 --> 01:34:44,279was was a move in the rightdirection, and I think it was imperative139601:34:44,399 --> 01:34:47,840that we do that. And Chinais a real threat. I love seeing139701:34:47,920 --> 01:34:56,039their economy struggling as their exports slowbecause the US is finding other places to139801:34:56,119 --> 01:35:02,279get things. I love that weneed to we need to distance ourselves from139901:35:02,319 --> 01:35:06,880them. They are a real threaton the global stage and they're a real140001:35:06,960 --> 01:35:11,600threat to us, and I thinkwe need to do whatever we can to140101:35:11,840 --> 01:35:15,640distance ourselves. And I should thinkwe're going in that direction, just slowly.140201:35:15,720 --> 01:35:17,960I think other companies are too.A lot of companies seem to be140301:35:18,079 --> 01:35:21,680moving their factories to Indonesia, toIndia, to a little bit in Mexico.140401:35:23,319 --> 01:35:26,800They're kind of getting tired of China. Yeah, it is hurting China140501:35:26,840 --> 01:35:29,800a lot. It is hurting Chinaa lot. Edit there exports were what140601:35:30,000 --> 01:35:34,079seven percent below what they were acouple of months ago, and they're talking140701:35:34,159 --> 01:35:41,560about infusing money into the economy totry to stimulate because things are not recovering140801:35:41,640 --> 01:35:46,119from COVID the way they had hoped. And we'll see how it goes again.140901:35:46,319 --> 01:35:53,199We're running out of time here.We've enjoyed bringing you this Money Matters141001:35:53,239 --> 01:35:57,399show. Dean will be traveling forone more week, but then two weeks141101:35:57,479 --> 01:35:59,960from today he will be back realquick. How do you like your hotdog?141201:36:00,640 --> 01:36:03,600Catch up like it? I docatch up mustard already, the whole141301:36:03,640 --> 01:36:06,640fixings catch it mustard, relish.I guess I'm catch up in relish.141401:36:08,119 --> 01:36:13,439No, no mustard are sometimes Idon't need mustard? Suracrasts good and a141501:36:13,479 --> 01:36:20,760potato salad America tomorrow absolutely yeah,the day after tomor we have a half141601:36:20,760 --> 01:36:24,119a day. We'll enjoy a halfa day of work tomorrow with no work141701:36:24,159 --> 01:36:26,640on Tuesday, and then Wednesday wehave to come back to the grind tone.141801:36:26,720 --> 01:36:29,319Anyway, we thank you for joiningus. We all want to be141901:36:29,439 --> 01:36:32,399happy, of course, and ofcourse healthy is really up there on the142001:36:32,439 --> 01:36:35,600list of things. But what wewant to be here at Greenberg Financial is142101:36:36,079 --> 01:36:39,079off them all next week.