Markets are Soaring Halfway Through the Year – Will it Continue?

100:00:00,040 --> 00:00:20,800Yo two eight you heard probably willbe and we got the thirty three I200:00:20,920 --> 00:00:36,119mentioned. We at least thirty twotoday. M hm. Can you see300:00:36,119 --> 00:00:39,520the micros from there? Test onetwo, Test one three, Test one400:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,640four, Test one five tenths closesix. Here we are doing it Money500:00:42,679 --> 00:00:49,200Matters radio show bringing Tucson everything theyneed to know. So we got to600:00:49,200 --> 00:00:53,240go by the nexus because like Isaw today, Helen Hanson still in TT700:00:53,280 --> 00:00:57,759two was one hundred ak WHI sheain't and unbundled. So nexus is everything800:00:57,799 --> 00:01:00,719I'm bundled. I mean, westill made it, but nextus will probably900:01:00,759 --> 00:01:03,959around thirty million, which is fine, but not as much because there's I1000:01:03,959 --> 00:01:07,480mean it's probably four in a grandthat's not in unbundled. That's showing in1100:01:07,799 --> 00:01:11,079beta link far little thing with mydad, Well, you just had to1200:01:11,079 --> 00:01:14,480be above two or seven. No, No, we have a thing with1300:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,840our TD what we bring in abonus thing. We had to be above1400:01:17,840 --> 00:01:21,599twenty eight five. I got it, which we were like in beta link1500:01:21,599 --> 00:01:23,920when I add up to three,we got like thirty one. But then1600:01:23,920 --> 00:01:26,040there's I found there's probably like fivehundred grand worth of like Mary Montoya hundred1700:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,920grand in there hundred fifty grand,so it's probably about four or five hundred1800:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,519grand that's not in unbundled but showingin TV two, so we probably got1900:01:33,599 --> 00:01:38,560to put that into TV four.Well we're moving out Helen Hanson soon anyways.2000:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,519But all right, yeah, that'sall I was saying. But we2100:01:40,560 --> 00:01:44,799still made it for the quarter.Good job, buddy, A good job.2200:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,959Been drinking a lot of water.What's going here? One hundred million2300:01:51,959 --> 00:01:57,120degrees outside and help? All right? Look at that week? Maybe are2400:01:57,120 --> 00:02:01,480we ready, buddy, Yeah,we'll get drunk off wy Sue. She's2500:02:01,480 --> 00:02:06,439out of here. I came outof here, get out of here,2600:02:07,040 --> 00:02:12,919trying to get radio show. Yeahyou can listen though, absolutely all right2700:02:13,039 --> 00:02:17,560school. Hey three to one,Good morning Tucson. It's Sunday. It's2800:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,960July second. I'm Dave Sherwood.I'm here with Todd Glick. I'm here2900:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,400with Dylan Greenberg. You know,last Monday, guys, we celebrated the3000:02:24,479 --> 00:02:30,800thirty third anniversary of the hottest dayin the history of Tucson. Oh wow,3100:02:30,840 --> 00:02:31,599I need to know what the number. It was, one hundred and3200:02:31,599 --> 00:02:37,680seventeen degrees. But I wasn't herebecause I had a previous appointment in Phoenix,3300:02:38,719 --> 00:02:42,080where it was one hundred and twentythree degrees one hundred and seventeen.3400:02:42,439 --> 00:02:44,719We made a good run out ofthis past Monday. We were one hundred3500:02:44,759 --> 00:02:46,120and eleven. It's a good show. Good show, but it wasn't one3600:02:46,159 --> 00:02:51,680hundred and seventeen. But it's warmout there. It's not cold. I3700:02:51,719 --> 00:02:53,479think you would all agree it's warm. I love your weather updates every Sunday.3800:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,960Well, it's important. I'm outsidea lot, except this time of3900:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,599the year I'm more in the gymthan outside. It's fascinating how much the4000:03:00,680 --> 00:03:05,919weather changes. I was out thereat like four fifteen this morning and down4100:03:05,919 --> 00:03:07,639in Salata, so it's a littlecooler there. Absolutely it was. It4200:03:07,719 --> 00:03:10,879was like fifty six degrees when Iwas out there. Oh really, and4300:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,080it gets up to like you know, it gets up to like one oh4400:03:14,120 --> 00:03:15,840five there, so you're just likea fifty degree swing that you know.4500:03:15,960 --> 00:03:20,000This place has its kind of likethose old Western movies, right remember,4600:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,080would they'd be swaltering in the daytime, in a night they'd be freezing4700:03:23,159 --> 00:03:25,919and what not? Quite that rightbad, But there's a dramatic difference,4800:03:27,039 --> 00:03:30,280especially when the air gets dry likeit is now exactly what a week in4900:03:30,360 --> 00:03:35,560the market, what a month?What a year? So far? The5000:03:36,680 --> 00:03:42,240week started off kind of quiet.The first three or four days of the5100:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,080week, we're kind of quiet.But on Friday, the last day of5200:03:45,120 --> 00:03:50,400the quarter, the last day beforemoney managers and mutual funds and hedge fund5300:03:50,479 --> 00:03:55,240managers all put their quarterly reports outto the public, there were no sellers5400:03:55,319 --> 00:04:00,479insight. It was all buyers fromthe get go. It started off moving5500:04:00,560 --> 00:04:06,479higher and just gained ground throughout theday. And that's indicative to me of5600:04:06,680 --> 00:04:11,280people that are wanting to window dress. Oh yeah, well, I mean5700:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,000yeah, you kind of see thatalways going into the end of a quarter.5800:04:14,599 --> 00:04:16,000It's usually a run up. Andthen also same time, it was5900:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,639a holiday weekend in a sense,I mean, I know, we're open6000:04:18,759 --> 00:04:23,600tomorrow at for half a day,but you still see that run up.6100:04:23,879 --> 00:04:28,000That bring up an interesting point.We have an interesting week next week with6200:04:28,199 --> 00:04:31,519the fourth of July holiday on Tuesday, YEP, and Wall Street is good6300:04:31,519 --> 00:04:36,839at getting out early, and soMonday the market is open until one pm6400:04:38,399 --> 00:04:44,120on in New York, which meansat ten am in Tucson the market's closed.6500:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,639So Monday we're open until ten.I think the office might be until6600:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,160ten thirty or eleven and then that'sit, and then Tuesday off. And6700:04:51,839 --> 00:04:58,279the people often ask why why wouldwe even open it all? And that's6800:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,680because there is a a law thatcame about back in the nineteen thirty three6900:05:02,519 --> 00:05:10,279that UH says financial institutions shall notbe closed for more than three consecutive days,7000:05:10,639 --> 00:05:13,399which is not fair. Yeah,you gotta get your money, giving7100:05:13,439 --> 00:05:15,879people access to their money. Yeah, and of course that was done long7200:05:15,920 --> 00:05:21,279before ATMs and electronic transfers and thingsof that nature that make it kind of7300:05:21,879 --> 00:05:25,920kind of silly, but it iswhat it is, and that's why we7400:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,000were opened the Friday after Thanksgiving aswell, because that would be four consecutive7500:05:30,079 --> 00:05:34,600days, which is which is sprownon if it. Dean is still traveling.7600:05:35,079 --> 00:05:40,480Any updates Dylan from They're in Portugalright now and he's enjoying life as7700:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,000much as he can as he's hobblingaround, but he's isn't he's getting better,7800:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,439getting better in the sense of hisleg strengthening, but he has nossability,7900:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,199so he's just getting used to it. It's probably an ACLS what it8000:05:50,240 --> 00:05:54,000sounds like, but he's definitely gettingused to it and making the best of8100:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,399it. I thought that thought wasinteresting. It in Europe, they don't8200:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,639use the crutches, the wooden crutcheslike we do that go under your arm8300:06:00,079 --> 00:06:01,639to connect them to your forums.Yeah, the forums, like you've seen8400:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,279people with polio that will use theexact same ones. Yeah, it's the8500:06:04,279 --> 00:06:10,040exact same and and he said thatthey're they're way better. Yeah, I8600:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,079never used all used the ones thatcan go in your arm pit. They8700:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,279suck. Yeah, it makes alot of sense that now you were you8800:06:15,319 --> 00:06:17,680were last weekend, you were here. You were up in Peoria, Peoria8900:06:17,800 --> 00:06:21,240Lenos, not Peoria, Arizona though, No, you're in all the way9000:06:21,240 --> 00:06:25,120to the real Peoria. Yeah,Peoria Lenois. Back there for a friend's9100:06:25,160 --> 00:06:29,160wedding. And what kind of reportsdo you have for us from Peoria.9200:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,240The weather was hot. It wasn'treally like a man Dylan. Yeah,9300:06:31,319 --> 00:06:33,879it was hot. It was.It was more humid though, but a9400:06:33,959 --> 00:06:35,920small town, it is a goodtime. Yeah, but it's a shame9500:06:36,000 --> 00:06:40,519you so you didn't get seventy degreeweather and a break from the heat or9600:06:40,519 --> 00:06:44,439anything. No, it was likeninety plus with humidity, with humidity during9700:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,480the mornings were like way better.They were sixty degrees where we started golfing9800:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,199in the like early mornings, butby the time it was midday it was9900:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,680yeah, it was nineties. Itwas good to have you back. I10000:06:53,680 --> 00:06:58,600think Dean is traveling again next weekendand then the following you will be back10100:06:58,600 --> 00:07:03,600for the fourteenth back, which isisshow for the sixteen ye. Yeah,10200:07:03,680 --> 00:07:08,839So those of you that miss hisvoice, you can always go to the10300:07:08,879 --> 00:07:13,920iHeart website or the iHeart app,and or you can click on the microphone10400:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,480in the upper left hand corner ofour right of Greenberg Financial dot com and10500:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,839to listen to any of our pastshows. So if you're new to our10600:07:21,879 --> 00:07:25,839show and kind of wondering, hey, what what are these guys all about,10700:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,639you certainly can listen to any ofthe past shows. And since we're10800:07:29,639 --> 00:07:31,600talking about the show, let's getrid of that disclaimer real quick. This10900:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,639show has been sponsored by Greenberg FinancialGroup. You can listen on seven ninety11000:07:35,680 --> 00:07:40,600k S or Higheart Radio. Theshow discusses different investment products and strategies.11100:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,399Every product in strategy has some typeof inherent risk. We strongly encourage our11200:07:44,399 --> 00:07:47,399listeners to probably understand these risks todetermine whether to buy, sell or hold.11300:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,160Show has been on the air forover thirty years. Greenberg Financial Group11400:07:50,199 --> 00:07:54,399is registered with the SEC as amember of FENRA and SIPIK. You can11500:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,839visit our website Greenberg Financial dot comor more information. Thank you. John.11600:07:58,959 --> 00:08:03,680Headlines this week, probably the biggestheadline, at least early in the11700:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,279week was the Wagner Groups march onMoscow. Is it Wagner or Wagner,11800:08:07,560 --> 00:08:13,079Wagner, Wagner. Probably Wagner,Yeah, probably Wagner. I've heard different11900:08:13,079 --> 00:08:15,920people say different things. I thinkWagner or we can just call him Wagner.12000:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,839That's American Wagner Group. Big newsin the war that we haven't heard12100:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,439much about recently. And you know, Putin's had been in power for twenty12200:08:24,439 --> 00:08:28,839three years, and really that's probablythe biggest threat to his power ever.12300:08:30,000 --> 00:08:31,879Well, Todd, you were tellingme it turns out that guy was like12400:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,679his best friend, good friend,stuff like that. Yeah, apparently he's12500:08:35,720 --> 00:08:39,919developed a very keen relationship over theyears with the leader of the Wagner Group12600:08:39,960 --> 00:08:45,000and was eventually kind of the reasonthe Wagner Group everything was created in the12700:08:45,000 --> 00:08:48,440first place. Was to have Putinhave a private militia, and you're not12800:08:48,480 --> 00:08:52,240allowed to have private militias in Russiaaccording for their laws UM. But this12900:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,480Wagner group is, you know,registered in outside of UM Russia, so13000:08:56,480 --> 00:09:01,600they're able to get around some ofthat jurisdiction issues. But it's kind of13100:09:01,639 --> 00:09:05,200like Putin's gang for example. Itreally is. And then the gang kind13200:09:05,240 --> 00:09:09,200of didn't like what they were howthey were being treated, and then the13300:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,840gang leader kind of said you're gonnagive me what I want or or coming13400:09:11,879 --> 00:09:18,360to Moscow in procotion really became friendswith Putin back when he had a catering13500:09:18,399 --> 00:09:24,200company and provided meals for Putin.They actually called him Putin Chef. Yes,13600:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,600so y'all have heard all about thisall week on the TV. But13700:09:26,919 --> 00:09:31,720one thing I thought was fascinating isI went to the gym on Tuesday.13800:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,600I think it is when it's broke, and it had just broken. It13900:09:35,639 --> 00:09:39,200was relatively fresh news, like withinthe last twelve hours or so. And14000:09:39,279 --> 00:09:43,720I'm at the gym and in frontof the treadmill that I use as CNN,14100:09:43,000 --> 00:09:48,159so I'm forced to look at it. And they spent the first thirty14200:09:48,240 --> 00:09:52,360minutes of their four o'clock hour,which is seven o'clock in New York,14300:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,879right, that's prime time. Theyspent the first thirty minutes talking about Trump.14400:09:56,559 --> 00:10:01,480YEP, I was watching the sameI might choose fitness, watching the14500:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,159same thing. I remember. Backwhen they first started, it was the14600:10:03,279 --> 00:10:07,000Turner News Network TNN, and Ithink it ought to be TNN again,14700:10:07,360 --> 00:10:13,279Trump News Network, right, becausethey're doing more for Trump than any campaign14800:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,320manager, than any donor. Yeah, the problem is no one watched the14900:10:16,399 --> 00:10:20,399CNN anymore. No, that's true. The viewership is way Absolutely, it's15000:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,799so bad. Yeah, it's sobad. But I mean they're giving him15100:10:24,840 --> 00:10:28,960constant coverage, keeping his name outthere and inflaming at least half of the15200:10:28,000 --> 00:10:33,519country. And so let's rename itthe TNN. I saw a status says,15300:10:33,679 --> 00:10:37,519you know, Tucker Carlson during hisprimetime on Fox had one hundred times15400:10:39,000 --> 00:10:43,120the viewers that CNN would have duringtheir primetime hour. And the really interesting15500:10:43,159 --> 00:10:50,440thing is people like Joe Rogan hispodcast a thousand times the viewers CNNs.15600:10:50,519 --> 00:10:54,480So the reach is just not therefor CNN. They don't have the same15700:10:54,519 --> 00:10:56,879type of media power as they usedto. Yeah, they did it to15800:10:56,919 --> 00:11:01,200themselves. It's absolutely is what itis. And they did. They did,15900:11:01,279 --> 00:11:05,279And I was saying that maybe thatmaybe Warner Brothers will just shut him16000:11:05,320 --> 00:11:09,879down, right, but they hada net profit last year of a billion16100:11:09,919 --> 00:11:13,080dollars. Do you think Fiser's gonnalet CNN shut down the I mean,16200:11:13,120 --> 00:11:18,480that's their marketing arm. There's noway they're gonna let Other headlines came from16300:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,240the Supreme Court a couple of majorrulings, and I know we all have16400:11:22,279 --> 00:11:28,440opinions. They were that that racebased college admission was declared unconstitutional. Affirmative16500:11:28,480 --> 00:11:33,559action, affirmative action and student loanforgiveness of no way forget it by the16600:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,960Biden It so that needs congressional approval. They said that, yeah, And16700:11:37,000 --> 00:11:41,799then this Friday afternoon, Biden hada press conference and he said that he's16800:11:41,799 --> 00:11:46,120going to find another avenue to figureit out because it's just so much for16900:11:46,120 --> 00:11:50,360the people to give them that Andthat's just the talking. That's just politics.17000:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,080There is no other angle. Theentire time, it's been politics.17100:11:54,159 --> 00:11:56,320He said it like a month beforethe midterms that you were going to relieve17200:11:56,360 --> 00:12:01,960student debt, and everyone knew youcan't do that. It's on constitution or17300:12:01,039 --> 00:12:05,480halfway through the year and through andthe SMP five hundred is up fifteen point17400:12:05,600 --> 00:12:11,360nine percent for the year, theNASDAC up thirty one point seven percent for17500:12:11,440 --> 00:12:16,919the year. We talk on andon about the equal weighted SMP five hundred,17600:12:16,919 --> 00:12:22,120which is really more representative of what'sgoing on in people's accounts, rather17700:12:22,159 --> 00:12:28,240than fifteen point nine percent that theSMP is up. The equal weight SMP17800:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,919is up five point nine so aten percent difference. Yeah, and we17900:12:33,039 --> 00:12:35,799keep hammering that too, that we'vebeen talking about it for a while now.18000:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,200It's the magnificent seven stocks that arereally increasing in the NASDAC. The18100:12:39,320 --> 00:12:43,320SMP five hundred only really apples inthem, or in the Dow too,18200:12:43,360 --> 00:12:46,919so that one hasn't been up asmuch. But it seems just fabricating the18300:12:46,919 --> 00:12:50,120sense that there's seven stocks out ofthe five hundred roughly that are just killing18400:12:50,159 --> 00:12:54,200it, that is driving everything.Right now, I'll take it one step18500:12:54,240 --> 00:13:01,399further, Dylan. I follow anumber of value ETF exchange traded funds.18600:13:01,440 --> 00:13:05,879These are funds that have in themthe stocks that you want to own if18700:13:05,919 --> 00:13:09,759you're a conservative investor, the Procterand Gamble, the Merks, the uh18800:13:11,000 --> 00:13:15,519AT and t s the Verizons boringdividend stock, boring dividend stocks and year18900:13:15,559 --> 00:13:18,879to date ready for this year todate, there's five of my follow year19000:13:18,919 --> 00:13:24,879to date. The average return onthose five exchange traded funds including dividends is19100:13:26,000 --> 00:13:31,399minus four percent minus four percent.So when you have a balanced portfolio,19200:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,399and I talk about this every weekbecause I think it's important when you look19300:13:35,399 --> 00:13:39,519at your portfolio and you and we'vewe've had a couple of calls and uh19400:13:39,799 --> 00:13:43,639gee, you know the the SMPfive hundreds up sixteen and the nazecs up19500:13:43,720 --> 00:13:50,720thirty two and my accounts up sixWhy because you're not one hundred percent in19600:13:50,759 --> 00:13:54,200the SMP five hundred that number onenumber two you you're you're not one hundred19700:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,919percent of the NASDAC number three.You don't have as your primary investment via19800:14:00,039 --> 00:14:03,240called the Magnificent seven. Yeah,you have a position in the Magnificent seven.19900:14:03,320 --> 00:14:07,159Let's say almost everybody has Apple.You might have three percent Apple,20000:14:07,200 --> 00:14:11,639four percent Apple. Well, Apple'seight percent of the s and P five20100:14:11,759 --> 00:14:13,600hundred. Yeah, we have Microsoftfor a lot of people, we have20200:14:13,639 --> 00:14:16,720at a video for a lot ofpeople. But I mean, if your20300:14:16,840 --> 00:14:22,000risk tolerance isn't high. You're notgoing to be necessarily in nvidio because Nvidia20400:14:22,399 --> 00:14:24,080swings a lot. Just last year, it was out one hundred and eight20500:14:24,080 --> 00:14:28,000dollars a share yea, and theykept going down and people didn't want to20600:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,279buy more of it because they thoughtit was going to just crash down to20700:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,480nothing. And now they're saying,why don't we buy more down there?20800:14:33,519 --> 00:14:37,360Because I don't have the risktolerants too. But we told them clients that have20900:14:37,559 --> 00:14:39,960had that that, we told himthat's why we do what we do with21000:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,279that, because you can't just throwthem one hundred percent in because when it's21100:14:41,320 --> 00:14:46,120going down, they can't stomach thatdownturn. I remember the end of twenty21200:14:46,120 --> 00:14:48,080two, the end of twenty twentytwo, which was just six months ago,21300:14:50,399 --> 00:14:56,960nobody wanted anything to do with Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta,21400:14:56,159 --> 00:15:00,840nobody wanted anything to do with anyof those. They wanted out, and21500:15:00,960 --> 00:15:05,000now nobody. Everybody wants it.If you're missing out, everybody wants I21600:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,919think the funny thing is if youtook the economic picture at the beginning of21700:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,960twenty twenty two and showed it now, I mean, overall the economic numbers21800:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,039they're not much different, but they'rethey're slightly worse and overall, yes,21900:15:16,320 --> 00:15:20,320right. And also the story wasin the beginning of twenty twenty two,22000:15:20,440 --> 00:15:24,559let's not go tech stocks because interestrates are so high. When interest rates22100:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,360are high, that's not a goodtime for tech stocks. Halfway in the22200:15:26,399 --> 00:15:30,759year, interest rates are even higherthan what they were at the beginning,22300:15:31,039 --> 00:15:37,080and tech stocks didn't care. Theyabsolutely normally, we see there's a negative22400:15:37,120 --> 00:15:41,320correlation, right, I mean,when when rates are increasing stock tech stocks22500:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,000are going to go down and value. And that's what we saw last year.22600:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,320Like you were saying, but Imean now that nazacs two percent off,22700:15:46,399 --> 00:15:50,559doesn't care what a loss last year, it's up thirty two percent this22800:15:50,639 --> 00:15:54,960year. Yeah. And at theend of twenty two, again everyone not22900:15:54,080 --> 00:15:58,639everyone, but a lot of peoplewere wanting to be more defensive, wanting23000:15:58,639 --> 00:16:02,559to be out of tech, wantingto be less aggressive. And we pointed23100:16:02,559 --> 00:16:07,559out that there's only been two timesin the last seventy five years where there23200:16:07,559 --> 00:16:10,279have been back to back down years. We said this, so the odds23300:16:10,320 --> 00:16:15,279favor twenty twenty three being an upyear. I don't think we had any23400:16:15,000 --> 00:16:22,960inkling that artificial intelligence would just storminto the room and give everybody Christmas bonuses.23500:16:23,639 --> 00:16:30,279It's just amazing how dramatic that's been. But money managers falling all over23600:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,159one another last week to make surethat they're participating in the hot areas as23700:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,720we get to the end of thatstatement period, but we repeat, it's23800:16:37,759 --> 00:16:45,039a very narrow rally, so fragilerally. Yeah, temper your expectations.23900:16:45,519 --> 00:16:48,919We have. The fear index isthe lowest it's been since January of twenty24000:16:49,000 --> 00:16:55,360twenty, right before the pandemic.It is close to the lowest it's ever24100:16:55,399 --> 00:17:00,399been in history. This is whenyou find complacency that's not good. You24200:17:00,519 --> 00:17:03,680generally build the best market rallies whenpeople are nervous, when people are concerned,24300:17:03,720 --> 00:17:07,960you'll climb that wall of worry,you'll hear. Yeah. And I24400:17:07,039 --> 00:17:10,759mean, that's what makes me nervousabout this rally right now is that it24500:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,640could change real quick, and itcould drop fast because it is so fragile.24600:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,000Was just a few stocks that arereally riding it. I think the24700:17:17,039 --> 00:17:21,839first attempts to sell it off willprobably be arrested because there are a lot24800:17:21,839 --> 00:17:25,640of people that feel like they've missedit. Yeah, I think those first24900:17:25,640 --> 00:17:32,200couple of downward pushes will be shortand be modest, but there could be25000:17:32,240 --> 00:17:33,519a bigger one coming. Well.Yeah, My whole thing with that is25100:17:33,559 --> 00:17:37,559that if you got a bunch ofindividual investors now on robin hood or doing25200:17:37,599 --> 00:17:41,880it on their own, that ifthey start seeing these tech companies drop just25300:17:41,920 --> 00:17:45,720a little bit or start dropping maybeten percent lower, they're gonna get out25400:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,319too, because they're gonna say,all right, don't want to lock in25500:17:47,440 --> 00:17:48,880my profit and just get out.So then you start seeing it down,25600:17:48,920 --> 00:17:53,240down, down, and Todd youpointed out that the economy today is probably25700:17:53,279 --> 00:17:56,440worse than it was in the beginningof twenty two, a year and a25800:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,640half ago. Interest rates are certainlydramatic, medically higher. The inversions,25900:18:00,920 --> 00:18:07,680the yield inversion, which is awarning sign of not good things to come,26000:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,920continues to get even bigger. Thispast week. We saw it go26100:18:12,039 --> 00:18:17,559from we were at one percent lastweek, which was the biggest we'd ever26200:18:17,599 --> 00:18:22,279seen. Today it's a three pointeight five was the ten year, and26300:18:22,319 --> 00:18:26,359the two years four point eight eight, so it's actually more than one percent.26400:18:26,720 --> 00:18:30,000So that inverted yield curve, whichagain is is kind of the canary26500:18:30,039 --> 00:18:33,240in the coal mine if you will. And I don't want to be too26600:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,240big. I don't want to throwa wet blanket on it, because it's26700:18:36,240 --> 00:18:40,240been a wonderful year, a wonderfulquarter. Our counsel are doing great,26800:18:40,240 --> 00:18:44,000our clients are doing great, andwe want that to continue until we all26900:18:44,079 --> 00:18:47,119die. Exactly. This is thewhole idea of what we've been preaching too27000:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,920for the last few months is becautious. Be cautious. Yeah, I27100:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,319think I thought optimistic right now,I've got I got a segment that I27200:18:53,319 --> 00:18:59,599added a few weeks back. Whatnow I get that asked quite a bit27300:18:59,559 --> 00:19:02,440from what do we do now?What do we do now? Yeah?27400:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,599I think there's two things you donow. Number one is the most obvious.27500:19:06,599 --> 00:19:10,480Take profits in the high flyers.If you happen to have Dylan,27600:19:10,519 --> 00:19:12,359I think you said last week,if you had three percent in Nvidia,27700:19:12,480 --> 00:19:18,119now you have six, bring itback to three. You know three percent27800:19:18,119 --> 00:19:22,920and Apple you now have five,bring it back to three. Take profits27900:19:22,039 --> 00:19:26,240and hold your core, hold thatthat core. And we've done that throughout28000:19:26,240 --> 00:19:30,680the whole thing, and honestly,we've been too cautious. We've been too28100:19:30,680 --> 00:19:37,400cautious for this market. But withthat said, we have been sixty percent28200:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,119invested in the market. We havehad our core. We are participating.28300:19:41,440 --> 00:19:45,279Every one of our clients has nearlyten percent in the SMP five hundred.28400:19:45,920 --> 00:19:51,519Every one of our clients has aroundfour percent in the NASDAC composite. So28500:19:51,559 --> 00:19:53,759we're participating. And part of thereason we've been more cautious too, is28600:19:53,759 --> 00:19:57,480because of a lot of our clientsuse their retirement counts that they have with28700:19:57,559 --> 00:20:00,319us for income, so we're notand they're trying to gain as much as28800:20:00,319 --> 00:20:03,039possible in the markets. We're tryingto make sure are lasting through retirement.28900:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,200So we are going to put hedgeson it. We're gonna put stuff like29000:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,680that on to kind of be alittle cautious on the coustious side for those29100:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,079accounts. You know, in Hindsight'stwenty twenty, you zoom back to March29200:20:12,440 --> 00:20:17,960when we have three bank failures,I mean people were really worried. Yeah,29300:20:18,079 --> 00:20:22,400zoom back to January right with unknownamount of continual hate rate hikes and29400:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,680the market going down. I meanthere's always there was true and there still29500:20:26,799 --> 00:20:30,799is true worries about this economy thatcannot be ignored. Well, that's a29600:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,720great point. See when markets arerallying like this, to only think it's29700:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,200going to continue, that's a greatpoint because right in two thousand and eight,29800:20:37,319 --> 00:20:40,799then Embarrasstarns go out first, andthen everybody thought it was back to29900:20:40,880 --> 00:20:42,799normal, and then six months lateris when the real collapse happened, with30000:20:42,880 --> 00:20:48,079Lehman Brothers and all them, andBank Merrill Lynch going out and the dollars30100:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,960increasing right now, which sounds likea good thing for us, but it's30200:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,839not a good thing for most ofthe world. Okay, when the dollars30300:20:53,880 --> 00:20:59,279increasing, a lot of countries theyhave problems servicing debt, they have problems30400:20:59,599 --> 00:21:03,359with their own inflation worries, andso when the dollar keeps increasing, it's30500:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,279like building up the pressure in thefinancial pipes of the entire system. Right30600:21:07,319 --> 00:21:11,000and I saw a report last weekthat thus far in twenty twenty three there30700:21:11,000 --> 00:21:18,559have been forty one corporate default that'smore than double the same period last year,30800:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,799and it's primarily due to writing interestrates. That's not talked about enough.30900:21:22,880 --> 00:21:29,519Dave and I saw a really interestingchart where it plots bankruptcies against the31000:21:30,359 --> 00:21:34,759credit spreads, and so what acredit spread is is taking the US high31100:21:34,880 --> 00:21:41,400yield credit rate against just a normalten year treasury for example, and seeing31200:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,519how much that spread is, youexpect the spread to be greater in times31300:21:45,559 --> 00:21:48,599of economy, when the economy isin distress. The reason being is,31400:21:48,680 --> 00:21:55,359who's gonna be giving a really badcompany alone in two thousand and eight?31500:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,920Sure, right, So I'll givea bad company alone in twenty twenty.31600:21:57,920 --> 00:22:02,440When every company's getting free money,right, right, they can pay that31700:22:02,480 --> 00:22:03,920back up. But when the economyis bad, up, they're not gonna31800:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,680pay, so you have to chargea higher rate of interest on those bad31900:22:08,079 --> 00:22:12,839loans. The credit spread is notmoving, it's not budging, but bankruptcy32000:22:12,880 --> 00:22:18,599filings are skyrocketing, which means themarket is not it's not looking at reality.32100:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,559It's normally this is a very correlatedchart, and it's not right now.32200:22:23,119 --> 00:22:27,319I spoke to Dean this morning,and I should mention he's been gone32300:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,960for a while, a little overa month, right, he's going to32400:22:30,039 --> 00:22:34,400be gone from the beginning to theend. But he's in touch with the32500:22:34,440 --> 00:22:40,640office multiple times a day. Soif we were thinking we got rid of32600:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,960him, that didn't happen. No, he's all in the know of what's32700:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,559going on. Yeah, and thetechnology is such that he actually has his32800:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,839office computer on his desk in thehotel room. Yeah. He can't get32900:22:51,880 --> 00:22:53,319away from it too long, youknow. And because there's an eight hour33000:22:53,440 --> 00:22:59,279time difference. The market opens thereat what two o'clock in Portugal? They're33100:22:59,319 --> 00:23:02,400two thirty in Portugal thirty. Youknow. When he gets done for supper,33200:23:02,400 --> 00:23:03,440it's in the kind of the middleof the trading day here, and33300:23:03,480 --> 00:23:07,240he's yeah, but they're in Europe, so dinner starts at ten? Yeah?33400:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,440Is that how they do it atten o'clock? That's what they're saying.33500:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,720Oh, how did they stay slam? That would just yeah walk,33600:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,920yeah, and you eat it alot slower. Yeah, you had dinner33700:23:17,960 --> 00:23:19,359for four hours. I like togo to France with them. Don't they33800:23:19,359 --> 00:23:23,000have dessert first? I don't know. You're gonna feed me dessert at ten33900:23:23,000 --> 00:23:29,000o'clock. I'm gonna go to bed, yeah, exactly. Interest rate Paul34000:23:29,680 --> 00:23:36,599again this week before congressional testimony,reiterated that more interest rate hikes are coming,34100:23:36,839 --> 00:23:41,519and that was reiterated on on Thursdaywith that quarter one GDP revision yes34200:23:41,599 --> 00:23:44,319to two percent from one point three, which is a huge revision. You34300:23:44,319 --> 00:23:47,599don't normally see that big of ajump, but that's showing the economy was34400:23:47,599 --> 00:23:51,039even better than we thought in quarterone, which in the Fed's eyes is34500:23:51,079 --> 00:23:53,400not a good thing if you're tryingto lower inflation. And well, again34600:23:53,480 --> 00:23:59,200we continue to have a goldilocks typeof an approach from investors, and they34700:23:59,240 --> 00:24:03,839just simply don't want to miss out. They're they're picturing interest rates coming down,34800:24:03,480 --> 00:24:11,160they're picturing artificial intelligence driving corporate profits, and they're picturing avoiding a recession34900:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,599completely. The bond market is sayingthere, I don't think so, So35000:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,559somebody's wrong and it will be interesting. I think we've we've now had the35100:24:18,720 --> 00:24:23,000price to earnings ratio, which againis just one measure of the market.35200:24:22,480 --> 00:24:27,079There's exactly but the price to earningsratio as of Friday's close was around twenty35300:24:27,079 --> 00:24:36,279five times historic average sixteen. That'ssixty percent. The valuations are sixty percent35400:24:36,319 --> 00:24:40,960above. You typically see that whenyou're coming out of a recession. H35500:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,400that's when you would typically see thatkind of a price earnings ratios when you35600:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,599expected earnings to be increasing rapidly.Right, So there's two things that has35700:24:48,640 --> 00:24:56,720to happen either either either corporate profitsneed need to corporate profits need to get35800:24:56,839 --> 00:25:00,519growing in a hurry, and we'renot in that kind of an environment where35900:25:00,519 --> 00:25:04,359corporate profits are going to grow rapidlybecause inflation is slowing. Right, So36000:25:04,400 --> 00:25:10,640the market is that I remember AlanGreenspan's famous irrational exuberance. I think we've36100:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,680all heard that term, that irrationalexuberance. And the market does right now36200:25:14,720 --> 00:25:22,359have irrational exuberance. It is envisioninga world that does not exist at this36300:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,559point. It's supposed to look outsix months. Okay, so six months36400:25:26,559 --> 00:25:30,279from now, will it look better? Will the FED be cutting interest rights?36500:25:30,279 --> 00:25:33,440To off? The Fed is cuttinginterest rates in six months. It's36600:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,880because the economy has come to agrinding halt that's certainly not going to grow36700:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,599corporate profits. Yeah, we're kindof we're kind of scratching our heads a36800:25:41,599 --> 00:25:45,720little bit. Dean and I talkedabout this morning how this is. We've36900:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,480both been doing this about forty years, and this is one of the more37000:25:48,559 --> 00:25:55,160perplexing times where you have this tremendousdichotomy between the NASDAC up thirty one point37100:25:55,279 --> 00:26:00,039seven percent and the value ETFs downfive percent. It's just it's just so37200:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,799strange to also see the diversions inthe bond markets thinking and the stock markets37300:26:04,799 --> 00:26:10,519thinking, the huge inverse yield whichis and and the persistence of it.37400:26:11,160 --> 00:26:15,640We're closing in on the longest periodof inversion in history. So it's a37500:26:15,759 --> 00:26:19,680very strange time. And uh,we'll be back after this mess you.37600:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,000We appreciate your taking time to listento us this morning. We got a37700:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,680whole bunch more information. Jonathan Civilia, our attorney is going to be here37800:26:26,720 --> 00:26:32,039talking about things, and uh again, check out the website, the high37900:26:32,079 --> 00:26:36,279website, or check out our websiteGreenberg Financial dot com for more information.38000:26:36,319 --> 00:26:41,519We'll be back right after this break. Jonathan, I think wanted to come38100:26:41,559 --> 00:26:45,160on. Now. Do you guyswant to talk to Jonathan and I'll get38200:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,799out or how do you want todo it? Either way, see what38300:26:48,799 --> 00:26:56,960he's talking about. I'm tired,You're tired. Tired. You got you38400:26:57,000 --> 00:27:17,640gotta open up those lyrics. Yo, I'm not gonna have any appointments after38500:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,839two. You know I can doit. I just said I said now38600:27:22,920 --> 00:27:29,000and he goes, okay, allright, Todd, bring it in baby38700:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,519three two one. Welcome back tothe money Matter. Show. My name38800:27:33,559 --> 00:27:36,920is Todd Click, I'm here withDylan Greenberg and Dave Sherwood, and what38900:27:37,079 --> 00:27:41,279the first half of the year ithas been, specifically for the NASDAK year39000:27:41,319 --> 00:27:44,519to day, it's up thirty onepercent, the smps up fifteen and the39100:27:44,599 --> 00:27:48,000downs up three point eight. Andso let's go look at history, right,39200:27:48,119 --> 00:27:52,039what happens when the market's done thiswell in the first half. What39300:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,359happens in the second half? Iremember last year we actually had a really39400:27:55,400 --> 00:27:59,240bad first half of the year,and we all had a bet, it39500:27:59,319 --> 00:28:02,599is the second half going to endup? Right, It's it never had39600:28:02,640 --> 00:28:07,200before ended lower then always ended higher. Before I had a hundred percent right,39700:28:07,279 --> 00:28:10,480it had ended higher than it wason June thirtieth, and it just39800:28:10,519 --> 00:28:14,200barely and it did and it justbad did again. Right, So this39900:28:14,279 --> 00:28:18,240year, obviously we've had quite abig run up. And someone did the40000:28:18,240 --> 00:28:19,559study for us, so I didn'thave to do all this research, which40100:28:19,599 --> 00:28:22,839is really nice. But the studyfound that since nineteen forty five, the40200:28:22,920 --> 00:28:27,160SMP five hundred has risen on averagefive percent in the second half of the40300:28:27,240 --> 00:28:32,559year when the index recorded a positivereturn in the first half. Now,40400:28:32,880 --> 00:28:34,640when the first half of the gainswere greater than ten percent, which they40500:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,559were this year. Gains in thesecond half the year averaged eight percent,40600:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,880which is twice the average of secondhalf of all returns. So really,40700:28:42,960 --> 00:28:48,000pointing to history, we should seeanother good second half of the year.40800:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,960Now, of course, history doesn'talways repeat normally rhymes, as Mark Twain40900:28:52,039 --> 00:28:56,440puts it, but it's one onelittle stat there for you. And like41000:28:56,519 --> 00:29:00,599we always say about it, historyis simply a guide. There've been you41100:29:00,680 --> 00:29:07,799know, August and September are traditionallythe two worst months for the market,41200:29:07,839 --> 00:29:11,160and in twenty thirteen they were thetwo best months of the year. Yeah,41300:29:11,200 --> 00:29:15,039but more often than not they've beenthe worst. August September are difficult.41400:29:15,079 --> 00:29:18,720Now, July has historically been overthe last fifty years, has been41500:29:18,759 --> 00:29:23,160the best month the market. Julyand historically July tends to be a positive41600:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,880month for the SMP in the thirdyear of the US presidential site. That's41700:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,480right, So you got that going, but you got multiple things going.41800:29:30,519 --> 00:29:33,119But then again, December tends tobe a great month, Christmas rally and41900:29:33,160 --> 00:29:37,200all that. In twenty eighteen itgot hammered twenty percent. So I think42000:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,599I think you probably say at thispoint that the market's going higher until further42100:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,920notice. Oh yeah, because themomentum. You have this momentum at the42200:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,079same time, don't chase it.Don't don't be inclined to chase it,42300:29:49,119 --> 00:29:52,119because what's gonna happen is you're gonnajump in there. You're gonna say,42400:29:52,200 --> 00:29:56,079I can't take it anymore, Igotta get in, and then the market's42500:29:56,119 --> 00:29:59,599going to take a ten percent headertrickling. Don't go one hundred percent in42600:29:59,680 --> 00:30:00,920right away if you want to getyour feet wet. Let's talk about this.42700:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,880What happens if the war ends?What does the market do? What42800:30:03,960 --> 00:30:08,960happens if the Russian war ends,the Ukraine war ends? Exactly though that42900:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,039ends, the market's going to takeoff. And isn't that interesting? The43000:30:12,039 --> 00:30:17,920Wagner Group is no longer going tofight in Ukraine. Weren't they pretty much43100:30:17,960 --> 00:30:22,319it? They were the front lines. Weren't they the guys that were creating43200:30:22,359 --> 00:30:25,480the biggest problem for the Ukrainian Yeah, there's a lot of silence around all43300:30:25,519 --> 00:30:30,359this, which is odd. Itis if you do have a war that's43400:30:30,680 --> 00:30:36,079resolved, which I don't see howthat military industrial complex allows that to happen.43500:30:36,119 --> 00:30:40,279But say it does, right,what happens, the market's going to43600:30:40,359 --> 00:30:44,079take that very well and it couldkeep running. I mean until there's something43700:30:44,119 --> 00:30:47,799really bad, like another bank orthe FED saying you guys are doing bad43800:30:47,839 --> 00:30:51,759like he did at Jackson Hole lastyear, where you know Jerome Powe says43900:30:52,000 --> 00:30:53,480you guys are going too crazy.If you keep doing what you're doing,44000:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,359I'm gonna raise rates even more,and the market fell big time that week.44100:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,960Right right now, it's belong orbe wrong, right, It's that44200:31:02,119 --> 00:31:04,440simple and so there. And likeDylan, I agree with you that there's44300:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,119going to be a pullback. Ithink the first few pullbacks get arrested at44400:31:08,160 --> 00:31:12,960a fairly short pullback because so manypeople are looking for an opportunity to get44500:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,839in. Yeah, that's true.If you see a three to five percent44600:31:15,839 --> 00:31:18,079pullback and some of those stocks theywill probably get in, I think.44700:31:18,079 --> 00:31:22,039So, I think how long willthat last? In August September coming up,44800:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,039so we'll see how how much higherwe can go. In July,44900:31:26,119 --> 00:31:30,160you've got the SMP five hundred,which has averaged ten percent a year for45000:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,720the last hundred years, up sixteenpercent in six months. Is this going45100:31:33,759 --> 00:31:37,839to be one of those twenty twentyfive thirty percent years. Let's hope.45200:31:37,839 --> 00:31:40,599So well, yeah, we wantwe want to hope, so I mean,45300:31:41,440 --> 00:31:42,960but at the same time, wewant to be intelligent about it.45400:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,200Yeah, we don't want to jumpin full force in tech and then we45500:31:47,279 --> 00:31:48,440hit the high and then all ofa sudden everything drops. You know,45600:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,640I think it's hard to and themarket is irrational. I guess at irrational45700:31:52,680 --> 00:31:57,680exuberance. But the market can stayirrational longer than you can stay liquid.45800:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,480It's all based on risk reward.How much reward is there still to be45900:32:01,599 --> 00:32:06,960made when the markets you know,Apple just hit three trillion again, the46000:32:07,079 --> 00:32:09,240video hit a trillion market cap.I mean, these companies have had a46100:32:09,319 --> 00:32:13,319huge run up. There's not alot of reward left, and there's a46200:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,440way way way more risk and yeah, reward trade off, go ahead,46300:32:16,599 --> 00:32:19,759No, go ahead, go ahead, I was gonna rich. Reward tradeoff46400:32:19,799 --> 00:32:23,200here is not good, it's notgood. There certainly is more downside than46500:32:23,279 --> 00:32:28,240upside. And that's the thing rightnow is a lot of people are not46600:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,759looking at their accounts because or they'rejust like, we'll stay with it because46700:32:30,759 --> 00:32:34,160everything's rallying up. But right nowis an important time to look at your46800:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,720account and make sure what if themarkets do turn down, are you going46900:32:37,759 --> 00:32:39,240to be okay with the holdings thatyou're in. Do you want to go47000:32:39,359 --> 00:32:42,559more conservative? Do you want togo more aggressive? Do you know what's47100:32:42,599 --> 00:32:45,000going on in your portfolio? Ifyou don't, you gotta come talk to47200:32:45,079 --> 00:32:49,440us and we can help you figureeverything out and play it all out in47300:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,079a visual to make sure you arecomfortable with what's going on. Because I47400:32:52,119 --> 00:32:54,319know right now everybody's happy because themarkets are up, but the minute they47500:32:54,359 --> 00:32:59,000talent, they have a down term. If you're too aggressive for your own47600:32:59,079 --> 00:33:01,880risk tolerance, you're going to beuncomfortable. So now is the time to47700:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,720say, if you need to takesome profits, you need to take some47800:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,039money off the table and aggressive stuffand put it in more conservative. Now47900:33:08,119 --> 00:33:10,319is the time to do it,because you can't take some profit off the48000:33:10,319 --> 00:33:15,200table. I mean when you havea risk and reward compared to a guaranteed48100:33:15,799 --> 00:33:19,400five point four percent in the oneyear treasury right now, you have a48200:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,920Vanguard money market which isn't guarantee,but it's at five percent, right,48300:33:22,039 --> 00:33:25,720I mean, these are places whereyou can park money and earn respectable rates48400:33:25,720 --> 00:33:30,599of returns. Exactly, why riskthat for a little bit of a reward.48500:33:30,799 --> 00:33:35,519It does give us the ability tobe more defensive. It does because48600:33:35,559 --> 00:33:38,960we're getting paid pretty nicely on ourdefensive holding. We're getting five percent or48700:33:39,039 --> 00:33:45,000better on all of our defensive holding, so we're comfortable being a little bit48800:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,960more cautious year exactly. And Imean, if this is for anybody out48900:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,559there, if it is something thatyou've been kind of wondering and you maybe49000:33:50,799 --> 00:33:52,680start thinking, all right, it'skind of getting a little overheated. Do49100:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,960I need to check this out orchange stuff? You got to come talk49200:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,839to us and we'd be happy tohelp. With the free financial plan that49300:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,279we talk about all the time.I was very in depth with everything,49400:34:00,599 --> 00:34:05,279and it helps get you on trackfor your retirement plan, to make sure49500:34:05,319 --> 00:34:07,960you are in line with your risktolers. That is the biggest thing in49600:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,960times like these when the market isup, because you don't know if it49700:34:12,000 --> 00:34:15,719does have a downturn. And thatone year treasury at five point four percent,49800:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,280that's the highest rate since two thousandokay, rights, it's bigger than49900:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,559anything happened in two thousand and eightspast five point four now five point four50000:34:22,559 --> 00:34:24,960on the one year. I meanwhen you're looking at I had talking with50100:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,719a client yesterday about this, andhe's like, it seems like you just50200:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,039are kind of a better a bank. You get more interests, you get50300:34:32,039 --> 00:34:36,119more insurance. If I needn't spendanything, you just send it to me,50400:34:36,159 --> 00:34:38,679It's in my bank account the nextday. Sure. I mean he's50500:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,000kind of got a point. Yeah, right, I mean, you're earning50600:34:42,039 --> 00:34:44,400more interest than you're ever going toget at the bank because guess what,50700:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,679the bank's using the same bonds thatyou would be buying, right, and50800:34:46,719 --> 00:34:52,119you're not insured by the federal government. You're guaranteed guaranteed by the federal government.50900:34:52,119 --> 00:34:53,559And you have Sippic on top ofthat. Yeah, and Tippic on51000:34:53,599 --> 00:34:57,960top of it. Up to onehundred million with RBC Housekeeping. From last51100:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,719week, Todd, you had asked, we were talking about suv excuse me,51200:35:02,079 --> 00:35:07,800electric vehicle sales of being eighteen percentthis year and looking at twenty five51300:35:07,800 --> 00:35:14,079percent of all new electric vehicles nextyear. And you said, but how51400:35:14,079 --> 00:35:16,920many electric vehicles are out there?So I did a little homework and of51500:35:17,039 --> 00:35:23,079all of the vehicles on the roadas of today seven percent are electric,51600:35:23,159 --> 00:35:25,199which is a little higher than thethought. Yeah, I would have said51700:35:25,199 --> 00:35:28,400like three or four. Yeah,that's where I would have been too.51800:35:28,400 --> 00:35:32,880But about seven percent of all electricall vehicles on the road are electric.51900:35:34,039 --> 00:35:38,400And one of a listener called upand he asked what we knew about auto52000:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,960insurance on electric vehicles? And it'skind of an interesting question because you think52100:35:43,159 --> 00:35:50,800electric vehicles are way more sophisticated thancombustion engine There's a lot more electronics involved,52200:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,159there's many many fewer places to repairthe cars, the parts are way52300:35:55,159 --> 00:36:00,320more expensive. So what's that dueto your auto insurance? And so I52400:36:00,400 --> 00:36:07,280check check with the Anthony figaroa fromHeartland Insurance, and surprisingly not much.52500:36:07,239 --> 00:36:13,639It is the and that could change. Insurance rates on electric vehicles are not52600:36:13,800 --> 00:36:19,000much above traditional Now that may betwo that most of the people driving electric52700:36:19,079 --> 00:36:25,280vehicles today are elderly. Would youagree? But I'm also thinking there could52800:36:25,320 --> 00:36:30,440be a backdoor where the government subsidizessome of those EV insurances to allow for52900:36:31,599 --> 00:36:36,159not you know, because if insuranceis a lot, that would detract people53000:36:36,239 --> 00:36:40,079from wanting to buy evs, andso if they could subsidize those insurance providers53100:36:40,079 --> 00:36:45,800for ev vehicles, making it somewhatrelative to normal cost insurance. Then that's53200:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,559not an excuse. And I won'tsay I won't say that's not happening,53300:36:47,559 --> 00:36:51,800but I could find I could findno evidence to that. But essentially,53400:36:51,840 --> 00:36:53,639you'd think, while the insurance hasgot to be a lot more because there's53500:36:53,679 --> 00:36:58,039a lot more of a problem torepair the car. But then you think,53600:36:58,079 --> 00:37:01,000well, who are the drivers.They're really wealthy older people, Yeah,53700:37:01,039 --> 00:37:05,719who tend to be pretty good drivers. Well that's debatable, but yeah,53800:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,679for sure, I'll come on,come on, now, I have53900:37:08,760 --> 00:37:14,280a fifth of wealthy provate I'm certainlyolder. Oil had an interesting week,54000:37:14,320 --> 00:37:20,119picked up a dollar seventy oils nowseventy seventy, and the gold was unchanged54100:37:20,199 --> 00:37:24,519on the week at nineteen twenty one. The dollar going up in June hurt54200:37:24,599 --> 00:37:29,519gold again. Gold priced in dollars, so they moved inversely to one another,54300:37:29,840 --> 00:37:34,079and we saw a rally in thedollar as interest rates rose, and54400:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,199I got a gold stat go ahead, let's have it going back from nineteen54500:37:37,199 --> 00:37:40,760eighty two. I back tested.I wanted to see how much did gold54600:37:40,800 --> 00:37:45,599appreciate from nineteen eighty two to thecurrent price. Three hundred and fifty percent54700:37:45,920 --> 00:37:51,280right, Okay from nineteen eighty two, bro, you know pretty good.54800:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,119Compare that to the S and Pfive hundred since nineteen eighty two, three54900:37:55,159 --> 00:38:00,920thousand, five hundred and fifty percent. Ten Just take off a three.55000:38:00,960 --> 00:38:05,639So the SP five up ten timesas much as gold. Uh if you55100:38:05,719 --> 00:38:08,039started at nineteen eighty two, yeah, yeah, so and you probably could55200:38:08,119 --> 00:38:15,920find And most of gold's rally occurredwhen during a very short period of time,55300:38:15,000 --> 00:38:19,559during a one two year period oftime. Way it always gold always55400:38:19,599 --> 00:38:23,199hung around four or five hundred dollarsthe seventies were that was like the big55500:38:23,199 --> 00:38:28,559gold rush. Yeah, you investedin the gold in like nineteen seventy one,55600:38:28,679 --> 00:38:30,880two you got you had a reallynice profit. So if you go55700:38:30,960 --> 00:38:35,519back further maybe it's it's good.So it's not as good. Yeah.55800:38:35,599 --> 00:38:38,760Bitcoin had a big pop the weekof the nineteenth, the last week a55900:38:38,840 --> 00:38:42,480little bit of profit taking. Thingskind of calm down, a little bit56000:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,559um ability joined the black rock chaindoing that spot etf Yep, let's talk56100:38:46,599 --> 00:38:50,920about a little bit more. We'llget a back after this break. We'll56200:38:50,960 --> 00:38:57,000be right back. Thanks for stantune, all right, bringing in baby56300:38:57,039 --> 00:39:00,920three two one. We'll welcome back. You're listening to the Money Matter Show.56400:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,880I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here withDave Sherwood and Todd Glick. We're56500:39:02,920 --> 00:39:07,639talking about a great first six monthsof the year. Marcus ended pretty up56600:39:07,639 --> 00:39:12,159for the for the month and theweek and the quarter. Dylan, let56700:39:12,199 --> 00:39:15,599me ask you a question. Whatis the highest return of the nasdacs ever56800:39:15,679 --> 00:39:19,719had in the first half of theyear. Thirty one point seven percent.56900:39:19,760 --> 00:39:23,519You're right, it was this Itwas this year. The second closest twenty57000:39:23,639 --> 00:39:27,920nineteen, twenty five percent. Yeah, some of these years are interesting when57100:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,119you really look at him, right, nineteen ninety nine, twenty two percent.57200:39:30,400 --> 00:39:35,400What did that coincide with? Yeah, dot combo dot com nineteen ninety57300:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,880five, twenty four percent, whichis kind of the start of the doctor57400:39:37,920 --> 00:39:42,199combo. Yes, nineteen eighty three, twenty two percent, which in the57500:39:42,239 --> 00:39:45,360eighties we had a very similar kindof starting point to what we're seeing with57600:39:45,480 --> 00:39:50,360interest rates. You know, theeighties interest rates got really high, and57700:39:50,519 --> 00:39:53,360then twenty nineteen twenty five percent.Right next year we had the twenty twenty57800:39:53,360 --> 00:39:59,679crash, So really interesting. Obviously, last year NASDAC made the record of57900:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,360having thirty percent down in the firsthalf return, so they're on the other58000:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,599side of that record after record inone way or another. I want to58100:40:06,639 --> 00:40:08,440go back to gold though, becausehistorically Goal has been the fear index.58200:40:08,519 --> 00:40:12,320It's kind of the fear you pushyour stuff in there if you're scared of58300:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,360the markets and everything like that.But it really hasn't returned much. I58400:40:15,360 --> 00:40:16,519mean, if we looked the lasttwenty years, what it was two percent58500:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,360roughly. If you if you're investedin gold in twenty eleven, you've made58600:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,480like one percent. Yeah, Andit's the idea, though, it's some58700:40:25,880 --> 00:40:29,960old tail that you've put money in. You put your money in gold when58800:40:29,960 --> 00:40:31,239you're scared about what's going on theeconomy in the market, because it's going58900:40:31,280 --> 00:40:36,360to keep up with everything, becausewhen everything goes down, Goal goes up.59000:40:36,519 --> 00:40:38,000And that's the idea. But whenwe go through the last twenty years59100:40:38,159 --> 00:40:42,679of having two thousand and eight happen, having twenty twenty, that quick downturn59200:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,039happened, all that gold really didn'tdo much in the last five years,59300:40:45,039 --> 00:40:50,039really hasn't done much. But whathas is treasuries what we've been talking about,59400:40:50,039 --> 00:40:52,639and that's where you can take advantageof if you're scared of what's going59500:40:52,639 --> 00:40:55,079on the market, you can buytreasuries, get that one year at five59600:40:55,079 --> 00:40:59,400point four percent, the two yearat four point eight percent, three year59700:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,079at four point four percent, youcan get that. That's the safest money59800:41:02,119 --> 00:41:07,480you'll get. You'll get a guaranteepercent or return of at least four point59900:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,880four percent over three years, andthat's a better avenue, I think,60000:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,880in the sense of trying to findsafe money rather than putting all your money60100:41:13,880 --> 00:41:15,400in gold, because you hear alot about gold right now, and they're60200:41:15,440 --> 00:41:19,800selling gold. Everybody's trying to sellgold because they're trying to sell fear all60300:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,800over the TV right exactly, andthat's what's happening. People fall forward if60400:41:23,039 --> 00:41:28,559that happens, because it's been likethat for sixty years, and they're probably60500:41:28,559 --> 00:41:30,199going back to the seventies and eightieswhen it had a couple of years were60600:41:30,400 --> 00:41:34,360jumped up high. But there areother avenues for safe money. If you're60700:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,639scared about what's going on the market, and it's treasuries, and you hear60800:41:37,639 --> 00:41:39,320it all the time, what happensif the government collapses? What does that60900:41:39,400 --> 00:41:44,119guarantee mean? We're screwed all moreissues in theory for a minute, right,61000:41:44,679 --> 00:41:50,159if the government collapses, your dollar, your gold, who's going to61100:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,480value it? We are now intoa barbaric time if that happens. Yeah,61200:41:53,480 --> 00:41:55,920it doesn't matter about your investments.And that's the idea. That's what61300:41:57,000 --> 00:42:00,800we tell clients. It's like alot more stuff is going on if the61400:42:00,920 --> 00:42:02,920government is going to collapse and notpay your interests, which they pay,61500:42:02,960 --> 00:42:06,719you know how much they pay outa day and interests on treasuries they've I61600:42:06,800 --> 00:42:09,760can't imagine one point three billion dollarsone day, three billion per day per61700:42:09,840 --> 00:42:13,719day. Wow, And they're payingit out and that's also I mean,61800:42:13,719 --> 00:42:15,400that's part of our issue of havingthe debt. But they're paying it out61900:42:15,400 --> 00:42:19,239and it is guaranteed and it isa place for safe money. If you're62000:42:19,239 --> 00:42:22,239scared with what's going on if thegovernment collapses, you need to find a62100:42:22,280 --> 00:42:23,639gun, and you need to finda cow. And then we hear what62200:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,639happens, and it learned how tofish if you don't know how exactly what62300:42:27,679 --> 00:42:30,119happens if the dollars not the worldreserve currency anymore. Yeah, we've we've62400:42:30,320 --> 00:42:35,360put this to bed. Multiple boxthat how many times because the dollars actually62500:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,440gaining strength in terms of total transactionsdone in it, and that's more fear62600:42:38,559 --> 00:42:43,480from the news media. They're talkingabout bricks, which is China trying to62700:42:43,480 --> 00:42:49,880make their own currency with Russia andBrazil and Saudi Arabia and Iran and South62800:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,079Africa. Yeah, in South Africa, but that's not getting any theme.62900:42:53,320 --> 00:42:57,599They're actually having issues with it.It's not being what they think it is.63000:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,719And the dollars still seventy seven percentof the world reserve every currency ever,63100:43:00,760 --> 00:43:04,519every transaction in the world. Butif you just if you watch the63200:43:04,559 --> 00:43:07,320headlines and you just watch snippets ofnews, they're making it seem like we're63300:43:07,400 --> 00:43:12,280the dollars almost about to be zero. So you got to do more research63400:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,679in order to have like to seewhat's actually going on, you know,63500:43:15,960 --> 00:43:20,480not chockingly. There was a lotof news, as there is every week63600:43:20,519 --> 00:43:24,840in the electric vehicle world. Wehad a truckmaker, Lordetown Motor, had63700:43:24,920 --> 00:43:29,679dropped ninety percent in the last twelvemonths. They actually filed for bankruptcy.63800:43:30,079 --> 00:43:34,559They had one of the coolest stocksymbols ever, our Ide. Unfortunately,63900:43:34,679 --> 00:43:37,000the cool stock symbol was not enoughand weren't able to write it out.64000:43:37,519 --> 00:43:45,199We've talked before about when you startbuying electrics. Yeah, there you go.64100:43:45,360 --> 00:43:47,119I was trying to we're not dealing. I was trying to trying to64200:43:47,199 --> 00:43:51,039let that go, but I couldn'tlet it go. Good job, good64300:43:51,159 --> 00:43:55,320job. But it's again, ifyou're dealing with a electric vehicle, this64400:43:55,440 --> 00:43:59,199a little bit on the fringe,like a Fisker. And I don't want64500:43:59,199 --> 00:44:02,159to pick on Fisker. Have youever seen a Fisker? Even know what64600:44:02,199 --> 00:44:05,760a Fisker is? Just I lovehow do you want to say? A64700:44:05,840 --> 00:44:09,960ton Fisker license? So it's kindof an odd name. No, I64800:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,800have not seen a Fisker. Yeah, where are they in Tucson? Have64900:44:13,800 --> 00:44:15,079you seen one? No, I'venever seen a Fisker. And I go65000:44:15,119 --> 00:44:19,039to that lake quite a bit,so, UM, I keep thinking I'll65100:44:19,079 --> 00:44:21,559see one over there. If Ido, I'll take a picture of it.65200:44:21,599 --> 00:44:23,639I gotta I can't wait to seeit. They look like riveting conversation.65300:44:23,679 --> 00:44:28,159What else about you? These TeslaTesla jump thirty percent in the last65400:44:28,199 --> 00:44:31,400thirty days as it appears that theircharging stations are becoming the gold standard.65500:44:31,599 --> 00:44:37,599They do lose ground last week afterGolden Sacks joined several other firms in downgrading65600:44:37,639 --> 00:44:40,760the stock stands too much, toofast. Your Tesla purchase didn't help them,65700:44:40,960 --> 00:44:44,119which I can which I can relateto whish I can relate to.65800:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,880Right. And in the meantime,Volvo, you know, a Tesla maybe65900:44:46,920 --> 00:44:52,559the gas station of the future,right, because we've got GM wanting to66000:44:52,679 --> 00:44:57,559use their charging stations. You gotFord wanting to use their charging stations.66100:44:57,679 --> 00:45:01,840Riving joined and then this fast weekit was Volvo. All of those companies66200:45:01,880 --> 00:45:07,480want to want to use the Teslacharging stations because they're dramatically faster. We've66300:45:07,480 --> 00:45:12,159talked about a lot on the show, um and uh so they they're apparently66400:45:12,159 --> 00:45:16,320going to become the gas station ofthe future. Another electric car company,66500:45:16,360 --> 00:45:22,760the Saudi Arabian sponsored EV maker Lucid. Saudi's own seventy percent of it,66600:45:22,840 --> 00:45:28,719todd as he is smiling over there, but it is the Saudi Arabian lucidum66700:45:29,159 --> 00:45:31,119down seventy percent in the last twelvemonths. They got to pop on Monday.66800:45:31,440 --> 00:45:36,679Get this, They've partner with Britain'sAston Martin, which is a very66900:45:36,760 --> 00:45:43,400high end brand, to supply AstonMartin with power trains and battery systems for67000:45:44,360 --> 00:45:49,119electric cars. And I've been seeingmore Lucids around town. Yeah unless it's67100:45:49,119 --> 00:45:52,800the same one that I just constantlysee. But there's this ribby and pickup67200:45:52,800 --> 00:45:54,639in town as cool. It canpick up like copper colored. Yeah,67300:45:54,679 --> 00:45:59,199I've seen it about ten times.I keep thinking it's something a new one.67400:45:59,239 --> 00:46:00,880But I like the river in trucksare cool. I like that look67500:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,400sweet. They get kind of asquare, kind of a box you look67600:46:04,519 --> 00:46:07,559them. Yeah, the riving carsseem like lowrider cars. It seems like67700:46:07,599 --> 00:46:13,480they're built to be lowrider cars.Haven't even I haven't even seen one.67800:46:13,519 --> 00:46:16,760I just saw the truck. Butyeah, Still it's still the ev market67900:46:16,840 --> 00:46:22,199is still in the very beginning stages. It's constantly evolving, and any of68000:46:22,199 --> 00:46:24,719your right, it's in the infancy. And I doubt Lorstown Motors is gonna68100:46:24,719 --> 00:46:29,920be the only one that goes out. But Tesla's still far and above the68200:46:30,039 --> 00:46:32,280leader, and we're learning that's morebecause of the battery or the charging stations,68300:46:32,280 --> 00:46:36,960the charging state. Who would havethought that the charging stations would become68400:46:36,960 --> 00:46:38,360the big deal? You know,it makes sense because I think last year68500:46:38,400 --> 00:46:42,079we were talking about Tesla's saying theyhaven't come out with a new model in68600:46:42,159 --> 00:46:45,119years. Just really we're wondering whythey haven't. The cyber truck has been68700:46:45,199 --> 00:46:50,639put on hold for whatever reason.They're uh, commercial trucks aren't doing very68800:46:50,639 --> 00:46:53,400well yet the stock is just ona tear, and we're wondering why.68900:46:53,440 --> 00:46:58,079And we're seeing why aren't they comingout with new models? Why aren't they69000:46:58,119 --> 00:47:00,320just trying to innovate more like thatas because they're probably putting a lot of69100:47:00,320 --> 00:47:06,000time and effort into the batters,charging stations and expanding that. I don't69200:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,320think anybody realized how significant that wasgoing to be, except maybe somebody at69300:47:09,320 --> 00:47:13,280Tesla. Huh. Yeah, theycertainly have a lot of them around.69400:47:13,360 --> 00:47:17,239And again the difference being that Levelone, you plug it into the wall,69500:47:17,440 --> 00:47:21,239takes you a couple of days toget enough juice to go to Phoenix,69600:47:21,679 --> 00:47:23,920YEP. Level two you get ahome charger. Level two you can69700:47:24,000 --> 00:47:29,800charge your car overnight. Level three, which is Tesla, you charge when69800:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,920you're out on the freeway and tryingto get from Tucson to San Diego and69900:47:34,000 --> 00:47:37,440you stop in Yuma and you getenough juice to get the rest of the70000:47:37,480 --> 00:47:43,440way. Without the Tesla charger.There are very few level three chargers in70100:47:43,519 --> 00:47:46,679the country. Yeah, and sothat's why that's why they're so in demand,70200:47:46,800 --> 00:47:52,960is because you don't want to sitin Yuma for five hours charging your70300:47:52,000 --> 00:47:55,719electric car. That's yeah, it'snot acceptable. So I think, hey,70400:47:57,039 --> 00:47:59,920you guys were picking on older people. You know. Health insurance stock70500:48:00,119 --> 00:48:04,360have been under pressure for the pastweek after United Healthcare, their CEO came70600:48:04,360 --> 00:48:09,039out and he said he's seen adramatic increase in the elective surgeries, many70700:48:09,119 --> 00:48:15,079of them orthopedic, and that hassent their stock down nine percent for the70800:48:15,159 --> 00:48:20,760year of The whole industry has beenunder pressure. This is interesting and an70900:48:20,920 --> 00:48:25,480analyst at UBS Todd has done adeep dive into these numbers about these elective71000:48:25,519 --> 00:48:30,599surgeries, and he's blaming much ofthe increase on the meteoric rise in the71100:48:30,719 --> 00:48:38,840popularity of pickleball. So this needto have those knees and hips fixed so71200:48:39,079 --> 00:48:45,360you can be your best pickleball playerapparently is having it. This is a71300:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,960public service announcement that when you getpast the age of twenty five, there's71400:48:47,960 --> 00:48:52,840something called stretching, and you wantto make sure you do that before you71500:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,079actually do. Yeah, I'm I'ma victim of that. I did not71600:48:55,119 --> 00:48:59,960stretch before I worked out, andI blew money out. I've never stretched71700:49:00,159 --> 00:49:02,840in my life and that, Yeah, you've had problems. So just no,71800:49:02,880 --> 00:49:07,559no, wait a second, Mymental health has nothing to do with71900:49:08,320 --> 00:49:15,559stretching. Please please do some stretching, especially when you're doing this type of72000:49:15,920 --> 00:49:20,400you know, pickle ball. Youyou're planting your you know, your legs72100:49:20,400 --> 00:49:23,000down in the ground hard when you'recutting and trying to get around the court.72200:49:23,119 --> 00:49:27,960Do some stretching first. Stretching issuper important and I had never done72300:49:27,960 --> 00:49:30,519in my life. And drink thewater. Yeah, water is good,72400:49:30,679 --> 00:49:34,480thanks doctor Todd. Water and stretching. No, stretching and stretching and super72500:49:34,519 --> 00:49:37,480important. Especially so a lot ofyou out there are playing pickleball. I72600:49:37,519 --> 00:49:39,880know, we know who you are. And uh, the pickle ball courts72700:49:39,880 --> 00:49:44,760are full and you're keeping people uplate at night and they're going up everywhere72800:49:44,800 --> 00:49:46,519too. I was out of footballtournament don A Keino a few weeks ago.72900:49:46,599 --> 00:49:50,519Yeah, they probably have twenty pickleballcourts, just pickleball. Like it73000:49:50,599 --> 00:49:52,639wasn't old tennis courts or anything.Something popped them up for everybody to use,73100:49:53,239 --> 00:49:57,039and they were packed at like eight. Anyone wants to challenge us at73200:49:57,039 --> 00:49:59,280pickle ball, I haven't even playedin a couple of years, but I73300:49:59,280 --> 00:50:00,920guarantee you stretched, yeah, becausehe stretched, so you'll be all right.73400:50:01,360 --> 00:50:05,880Yeah, I've never played all yeah, whatever game. Okay, I've73500:50:05,880 --> 00:50:07,440never played pickleball either, but I'vegot a bunch of friends who and seemed73600:50:07,480 --> 00:50:10,960to enjoy it. Seems like afun game. Yeah, it seemed like73700:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,280a fun game. And then ifyou're one of those two guys that invented73800:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,360it in the backyard, their dog'sname, his dog name was Pickle.73900:50:16,440 --> 00:50:22,400Dog's name was Pickle. And Ihope that Pickle's ball, right thought started74000:50:22,440 --> 00:50:24,960it. I hope that that theygot something out of this because it has74100:50:25,000 --> 00:50:30,960become the rage. And we'll beback after this brief break with the second74200:50:30,000 --> 00:50:34,440half of I promise you Johnson Stabiliawill be here. He's run a little74300:50:34,519 --> 00:50:38,519late. We'll look forward to Jonathanjoining us on this beautiful Sunday morning.74400:50:39,119 --> 00:50:45,559Talk to you soon. How doyou trademark the game? Yeah, I74500:50:45,559 --> 00:50:49,280think you're I think you're screwed.I don't think they I don't think though,74600:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,480I don't think they made anything offof that. What they could have,74700:50:52,679 --> 00:50:58,079what they could have trademark was theracket. Yeah, you can't trademark74800:50:58,199 --> 00:51:01,360the ball is a softball like abasketball or Wolff the ball the game of74900:51:01,360 --> 00:51:05,519basketball. No. I think whatthey could have trademark to like do it75000:51:05,639 --> 00:51:13,559was the bracket, I think,or maybe the name pickleball. It's a75100:51:13,559 --> 00:51:17,000different age than like eighteen ninety fourwhen basketball is invented. All right,75200:51:17,280 --> 00:51:21,440we'll just a long one and afterthis we'll see if Johnson's round to do75300:51:21,559 --> 00:51:29,360his part. Right, Let's getit started and hop like you three two75400:51:30,679 --> 00:51:36,480three two one. Welcome back.This is our number two of the Money75500:51:36,519 --> 00:51:40,039Matters Show. We're here on abeautiful Sunday morning, July second, getting75600:51:40,039 --> 00:51:45,400ready for Independence Day, getting readyfor half a day of work on Monday.75700:51:45,159 --> 00:51:50,159No, no work on Tuesday,probably very little work on Wednesday.75800:51:50,239 --> 00:51:52,960Wait wait, wait, wait,do you have any plans for the fourth75900:51:53,039 --> 00:51:57,800I had a theme going there,right, I'm gonna celebrate our nation's independence.76000:51:57,840 --> 00:52:00,519Yea, doing what? Well,it's a secret. Please just eat76100:52:00,519 --> 00:52:04,559a hot dog, you know,get a hot dog, eat a burger.76200:52:04,639 --> 00:52:08,079In tradition, a hot dog broughtWe're an American Bandanna Burger Burger something76300:52:08,079 --> 00:52:10,480to do something like that. Right, So it's a good holiday. It's76400:52:10,480 --> 00:52:14,920a good holiday. Uh, it'sgonna be probably be a warm day here.76500:52:14,960 --> 00:52:16,679I didn't look at the will beforecast, but we can guarantee it's76600:52:16,679 --> 00:52:20,559probably gonna be above one hundred.That would be my guess. It will76700:52:20,599 --> 00:52:23,199be interesting to see if the monsoonseason, which the weather serve us a76800:52:23,239 --> 00:52:28,159few years back just determined, startsto June fifteenth, which is just complete76900:52:28,159 --> 00:52:34,039Bunkum. The idn't know that.I thought it started to officially starts to77000:52:34,440 --> 00:52:37,519June fifteenth. I think to Septemberfifteenth. Get over. That's not the77100:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,960like Douglas or something. It's ridiculous. Yeah, it's ridiculous. It's now.77200:52:40,960 --> 00:52:45,079It doesn't start June fifteenth. Um, it starts the fourth of July.77300:52:45,239 --> 00:52:47,599We know that everybody lives here knowsthat that's that's kind of the official77400:52:47,679 --> 00:52:51,840kick off of the monsoons. Andhopefully this year in the fourth of July,77500:52:52,039 --> 00:52:55,840we'll be able to have some fireworksand then we'll have some heavenly fireworks77600:52:55,840 --> 00:53:00,239that'll bring us a bunch of rainand we can we can start start feeding77700:53:00,239 --> 00:53:05,280the desert the water that it needs. We wish everyone a happy Independence Day.77800:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,599We'll hope you have fun with yourfamily and friends and enjoy a real77900:53:08,639 --> 00:53:14,000special holiday, and be careful withthe fireworks. People are gonna want to78000:53:14,039 --> 00:53:16,239hear about no fingers being loss No, and then that happens every year.78100:53:16,320 --> 00:53:19,880And it's in the shooting up theguns in the air. I know,78200:53:20,480 --> 00:53:22,760you know who, you are,not a smart thing. Stop doing that.78300:53:22,880 --> 00:53:24,559That's not a smart thing to do. Those bullets have to come down,78400:53:24,800 --> 00:53:28,360and they come down really fast andreally hard, and they can kill78500:53:28,400 --> 00:53:31,480people. You know. Just stopshooting the guns up in the air.78600:53:31,559 --> 00:53:37,559And if it's you know, oneof the one of the mysteries. First78700:53:37,559 --> 00:53:40,280of all, First, just startingthe second half of while we recap the78800:53:40,280 --> 00:53:42,920market, Yeah, let's do it. You know, the doll was up78900:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,960two percent this week, SMP twopoint three, NASDAC up two point two.79000:53:46,320 --> 00:53:50,599Russell led the way at three pointeight percent. But the interesting number79100:53:50,599 --> 00:53:52,400to me is that equal weighted upthree point three percent, about an extra79200:53:52,480 --> 00:53:58,639point higher than the s and Pfive hundred obviously are equal weighted SMP,79300:53:59,079 --> 00:54:05,400showing that the broad breadth of themarket took off more so than just the79400:54:05,440 --> 00:54:08,679more weighted stocks. So normally theMagnificent seven was leading the way because year79500:54:08,719 --> 00:54:12,800to date you see that the Sand P five hundreds up sixteen percent and79600:54:12,880 --> 00:54:16,440the equal weight is only up sixBut this week equal Weighted actually one out.79700:54:16,639 --> 00:54:20,599Yeah, you actually did have othercompanies rather than just the Magnificent seven79800:54:20,599 --> 00:54:22,599that did well last week. Yousee Eli Lily. Yeah, they had79900:54:22,639 --> 00:54:29,000that Phase two complete of their nextweight loss drug called street name No,80000:54:29,119 --> 00:54:34,239it's ut True Tide and I alsoknown as Triple Gus. That's going to80100:54:34,320 --> 00:54:37,239be an oral version of one journalthat I didn't get. But that's that's80200:54:37,239 --> 00:54:42,119a kicker. I think that's thekey. Yeah, because Zampec and Majournal80300:54:42,199 --> 00:54:45,880they're injectables, and there are peoplewho don't like injected it. Maybe,80400:54:46,079 --> 00:54:50,679But what they said about it isthat people lost on average twenty four percent80500:54:50,719 --> 00:54:53,920of body weight during the phase twotrials, and if this can be confirmed80600:54:54,280 --> 00:54:59,039during the phase three trials, whichwill be going until about late of twenty80700:54:59,079 --> 00:55:02,960twenty five, this will probably bethe most profitable drug ever, more so80800:55:04,079 --> 00:55:07,519than their turs zepetide drug, whichexperts already think are going to be the80900:55:07,519 --> 00:55:13,599most profitable drug ever, because ifthey can absolutely have people lose twenty four81000:55:13,639 --> 00:55:17,239percent of their body, that bodyweight the issue. Yeah, I wonder81100:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,519what it is. If it's likeozempic where you lose bone mass too.81200:55:20,679 --> 00:55:23,199Oh yeah, No, I'm wonderingif the drug does the same thing as81300:55:23,199 --> 00:55:28,559ozempic. Why wouldn't it. I'msure it's a similar chemistry. But anyway,81400:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,559a related story. Fiser um weightloss drugs, of course, are81500:55:31,599 --> 00:55:36,039all the rage. Fiser gave upon their attempt to get away lost drug81600:55:36,360 --> 00:55:40,639gave up on Monday Thursday, youknow, Thursday, Credit Swist decided that81700:55:42,079 --> 00:55:45,400uh Fiser, which has just hita two year low, was a good81800:55:45,440 --> 00:55:50,199place to go from buy to hold. So you've had it as a buy81900:55:51,639 --> 00:55:53,639for and tell you HiT's a twoyear low and now you're gonna go hold.82000:55:54,079 --> 00:55:58,519Yeah, that's that's I love.That drives me crazy, or just82100:55:58,559 --> 00:56:01,760the best traders analysts are the besttraders. I'm telling you that, you82200:56:01,760 --> 00:56:06,119know the stock, the stock hasa pe of ten times, it has82300:56:06,159 --> 00:56:09,599a dividend of four and a halfpercent. That looks safe. But I82400:56:09,599 --> 00:56:14,360don't know where the catalyst is goingto come from. We were sellers.82500:56:14,599 --> 00:56:17,920We talked about on the radio showback during the pandemic around the stock got82600:56:17,920 --> 00:56:22,320into the mid fifties. We weresaying, get out, get out,82700:56:22,360 --> 00:56:24,679get out. We were twee me, the RSV vaccinees not going to be82800:56:24,679 --> 00:56:30,280the new catalyst. I'm thinking not, but we were. We were saying,82900:56:30,400 --> 00:56:34,440you know, the time to getout. COVID's waning stock could probably83000:56:34,519 --> 00:56:37,679return to the mid thirties, andguess what, that's where it is.83100:56:37,079 --> 00:56:42,800I've got a feeling that looking atthe stock momentum, looking at the competition,83200:56:43,320 --> 00:56:49,199looking at just the general attitude towardsSpeiser, that you might actually have83300:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,760a chance to buy it in thehigh twenties, which I think would be83400:56:52,119 --> 00:56:55,800a pretty attractive deal. You'd belooking at a dividend over five percent,83500:56:57,119 --> 00:57:00,880you'd be looking at a price earningsratio under ten um. I don't know,83600:57:00,000 --> 00:57:02,920you're not gonna get rich. It'sjust not gonna double. But if83700:57:02,960 --> 00:57:08,119you want to get a steady,predictable dividend with a relatively safe stock,83800:57:08,199 --> 00:57:14,559fights are under forty certainly looks attractive. We had we had a similar one83900:57:14,599 --> 00:57:20,280that we were talking to about wasDisney Miss down fifty five percent from Miss84000:57:20,360 --> 00:57:23,559twenty twenty one high and down elevenpercent in the last ninety days, and84100:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,880Key Bank says enough, they're goingto move from a buy to hold.84200:57:28,400 --> 00:57:31,079All of these analysts you know,oh my god, the stock has dropped,84300:57:31,159 --> 00:57:35,239you know, eighty percent, seventypercent, let's go to hold.84400:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,639Yeah. I wonder why they're alwaysso late to the saying that stuff and84500:57:37,679 --> 00:57:42,800that Disney again, we talked aboutthat when we've been we've been fans of84600:57:42,840 --> 00:57:46,280Disney and we've been wrong. Butwhen it gapped lower, when it dropped84700:57:46,280 --> 00:57:51,159from like one oh eight to ninetyeight back on earnings, we said,84800:57:51,199 --> 00:57:53,639you're you're probably going to get achance to buy it in the mid eighties.84900:57:53,639 --> 00:57:57,719Not to buy it there when yousee a big gap down like that.85000:57:58,079 --> 00:58:02,239Don't ever buy those big gaps downnine out of ten or maybe nineteen85100:58:02,239 --> 00:58:07,360out of twenty. That's not thebottom. That's actually happened twice with Disney85200:58:07,400 --> 00:58:08,960too. In the last couple ofyears. It went from about one fifty85300:58:09,000 --> 00:58:13,760five to gap down to one forty, and then it dropped to one twenty,85400:58:13,800 --> 00:58:15,920and then it stayed around there,and then it did the same gap,85500:58:15,000 --> 00:58:17,840but down from one of way toninety eight. And there's really a85600:58:17,920 --> 00:58:21,400lot of interest. When the stockgaps like that, Oh my god,85700:58:21,400 --> 00:58:22,800look at that guy. I gottabuy the you gotta get in. And85800:58:22,880 --> 00:58:25,519what will happen is that will createa little bit of a pop. You85900:58:25,639 --> 00:58:29,280generally get a pop off the bottom, could be as much as a five,86000:58:29,440 --> 00:58:31,960maybe even ten percent pop. Butthat's not the bottom. Yeah,86100:58:32,039 --> 00:58:36,119let things settled down and still havethe opportunity to buy it. And it86200:58:36,159 --> 00:58:39,599typically takes three to six months aftera gap like that for a market for86300:58:39,679 --> 00:58:43,920a stock to establish a new low. Yeah, a new base, if86400:58:43,960 --> 00:58:45,679you will. I'm still I'm stilla believer in Disney, though. I86500:58:45,719 --> 00:58:50,880think Bob Eyer coming back. Hedrove the company to all time highs.86600:58:50,880 --> 00:58:52,559He did a really good job whenhe was the full time CEO for about86700:58:52,559 --> 00:58:55,360twenty years. He came back acouple of years ago. Now he's trying86800:58:55,400 --> 00:59:00,719to kind of redo what they werekind of undoing when the other Bob for86900:59:00,880 --> 00:59:05,400Chepecker, how would you say hisname. Park traffic is strong, Yeah,87000:59:05,440 --> 00:59:09,239they're opening new parks. The streamingservice is strong. The cruise lines,87100:59:09,960 --> 00:59:14,119the cruise line is really picked upsteam. The big thing about their87200:59:14,159 --> 00:59:15,679streaming service, though, is whatthey're gonna need they're going to continue to87300:59:15,719 --> 00:59:20,639need to build original content because thenostalgia only last was so long where you're87400:59:20,639 --> 00:59:22,719going to go on Disney Plus allthe time. That's a good point.87500:59:22,840 --> 00:59:23,920It's just I mean, you'll doit for the holidays, you'll do it87600:59:23,920 --> 00:59:27,239every once in a while, butit's not going to be the constant traffic87700:59:27,519 --> 00:59:30,760if you don't create original content otherthan that, which they have some.87800:59:30,840 --> 00:59:35,880But they're basing it off of spinoffs of Star Wars, off of this87900:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,440franchise that did well and that franchise. They're kind of hanging on to people's88000:59:38,480 --> 00:59:43,079nostalgia. That's just won't last forever. No, that's exactly right. I88100:59:43,079 --> 00:59:45,280like that. And the cruise linebusiness, of course, we don't have88200:59:45,360 --> 00:59:51,119their numbers, they're not carved outseparately. But Carnival has doubled this year.88300:59:51,280 --> 00:59:54,159Carnival Cruise Line has doubled this year. Gained another ten percent on Wednesday88400:59:54,199 --> 00:59:58,880to a new fifty two week highafter reporting a quarterly lost. It was88500:59:58,920 --> 01:00:00,800smaller than expected, but they issueda strong guidance. They said, people88601:00:00,840 --> 01:00:07,679are still wanting to travel. We'rebooked up, and the biggest problem with88701:00:07,719 --> 01:00:12,440the cruise lines after the pandemic.Is not getting back in business, but88801:00:12,559 --> 01:00:16,559getting back in business and charging fullprice. That's the issue. Yeah,88901:00:16,719 --> 01:00:21,599yes, they had to get backin business. They had to discount.89001:00:22,079 --> 01:00:24,920You just give those cruises away,and so many of my friends took advantage89101:00:24,920 --> 01:00:28,079of it all. Oh man.There's people that like, if you bought89201:00:28,079 --> 01:00:30,480one full price cruise before they hadto shut down and you still had your89301:00:30,480 --> 01:00:32,719ticket, they would offer you likeanother free cruise, if not more.89401:00:32,840 --> 01:00:36,480Oh man, they're just trying toget you back one so that it's safe.89501:00:36,519 --> 01:00:37,760That's kind of stopped, that's kindof winding down now, and so89601:00:37,880 --> 01:00:43,119they're getting back to a more normaland carnival cruise line. Stock is I89701:00:43,159 --> 01:00:45,760think it was eighteen and a halfon Friday. Yeah, it's been as89801:00:45,800 --> 01:00:49,559high as forty fifty in the lasttwo or three years, so it's got89901:00:49,559 --> 01:00:52,960a ways to go yet. Andof course Disney has a cruise line as90001:00:53,000 --> 01:00:58,559well. The streaming service. Youmake an outstanding point about new content.90101:00:58,639 --> 01:01:01,960You need new content, but aspeople savings get depleted, which we've talked90201:01:01,960 --> 01:01:06,920about last week, those travels arenot gonna happen as much, right,90301:01:07,280 --> 01:01:12,360and so I would really expect nextyear. The travel season for cruises are90401:01:12,400 --> 01:01:15,840just not as robust as they arethis season because there's not going to be90501:01:15,840 --> 01:01:19,719as much savings. I think myconcern with Disney and fives or both is90601:01:19,840 --> 01:01:22,320what is the catalyst, what's gonnamake those stocks go? Yeah, I90701:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,599don't know. I don't agree withthat though, because cruises, once you90801:01:24,639 --> 01:01:28,280pay for your cruise, a lotof it's all included. If you go90901:01:28,280 --> 01:01:30,199to other hotels, you pay forthe hotel, then you gotta pay for91001:01:30,199 --> 01:01:31,440food, then you gotta pay foramusements. Now you gotta pay for the91101:01:31,440 --> 01:01:35,880cruise the first place. I'm sayingyou're gonna do it trips, Yeah,91201:01:35,920 --> 01:01:37,760I'm just saying I don't. Ithink it's gonna be a little better than91301:01:37,800 --> 01:01:40,360you but it's not. But economicallyit's not a bad deal. It's what91401:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,480you're saying, Joe. Yeah,right, if you're gonna do a trip91501:01:43,719 --> 01:01:47,440versus going to Portugal and and whatFrance and Ireland hotel, Yeah, that's91601:01:47,480 --> 01:01:52,519my parents. They do their ownthing. So we had little news on91701:01:52,559 --> 01:01:55,079home prices. Did you see that, Todd? Yeah, they both were91801:01:55,079 --> 01:01:59,480a little better than expectations. Well, I saw pending home sales and new91901:01:59,480 --> 01:02:01,400home sales. Well number you referringnew homesales rose for the third well,92001:02:01,440 --> 01:02:05,039this is pending home sales. I'msorry, rose for the third strade month92101:02:05,079 --> 01:02:08,400in April, they're just two pointfour percent below the peak. I mean92201:02:08,519 --> 01:02:14,199May, not April, that's noApril. The case Shillers is a lagger.92301:02:14,239 --> 01:02:17,039I was gonna say, yeah,homesales for May also was above expectations,92401:02:17,079 --> 01:02:21,039But the case Shiller report runs sixweeks behind, right, So I92501:02:21,400 --> 01:02:24,000don't know who whose report you're lookingat, but but yeah, the I92601:02:24,039 --> 01:02:29,039thought it was finally interesting. It'sonly two point four percent below the June92701:02:29,480 --> 01:02:34,119twenty two peak housing prices. Butwe know why. We've talked about it,92801:02:34,199 --> 01:02:38,760right, We've talked about a lotabout how people are just simply coveting92901:02:38,800 --> 01:02:44,119their mortgage rate, not their house. I don't necessarily love their house,93001:02:44,159 --> 01:02:46,119but but they love their mortgage rate. Yeah, where else? How could93101:02:46,159 --> 01:02:50,400you not people with mortgage race underthree percent? How could you not love93201:02:50,440 --> 01:02:52,679that? Yeah? You know,yeah, they're not gonna get rid of93301:02:52,719 --> 01:02:54,000that house. They're gonna just putstuff, put money into it, the93401:02:54,039 --> 01:02:58,719remodel it. Right, So,however, housing prices going to be going93501:02:58,760 --> 01:03:01,639down if you have nobody selling.I had, I had a house come93601:03:01,679 --> 01:03:07,440on the market in my neighborhood,and full disclosure, my neighborhood is a93701:03:07,480 --> 01:03:15,800fairly desirable neighborhood for old historic district. And this house came on the market93801:03:15,800 --> 01:03:19,320and sold within twenty four hours fullprice. Yeah, I mean this was93901:03:19,360 --> 01:03:22,480a last week. There's no inventory. There's no inventory to that Todd.94001:03:22,519 --> 01:03:28,320That's exactly right. No inventory.So if you want to house, you94101:03:28,440 --> 01:03:31,880either got to luck out dry bywhen the signs going up again twenty four94201:03:31,920 --> 01:03:35,440hours, or new home, oryou buy a new home. And a94301:03:35,480 --> 01:03:37,920lot of those new home you know, we saw KB home. I think94401:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,760it reached a new fifty two weekKAG and I'm not mistaken. These new94501:03:40,840 --> 01:03:45,320home builders are really benefiting off thelack of inventory because they kind of are94601:03:45,360 --> 01:03:49,119forced into the new homes and they'regiving them a lot of deals. They're94701:03:49,119 --> 01:03:53,119buying down interest rates, they're offeringyou know, free appliances like you know,94801:03:53,239 --> 01:03:57,760the fridges and all that, soit makes it a lot more attractive.94901:03:57,800 --> 01:04:00,519Free blinds, A lot of thosecosts that come that don't aren't associated95001:04:00,559 --> 01:04:03,440with the pending home sales, rightwith the new home sales you do have95101:04:03,480 --> 01:04:08,119to. There's a lot more costsassociated, but with the new homebuyers already95201:04:08,159 --> 01:04:11,960paying those that those costs for you, it makes a lot more attractive as95301:04:11,960 --> 01:04:15,039well. I think one of thethings we were looking at to see the95401:04:15,119 --> 01:04:23,559economy and inflation frankly slow was wasa fairly significant decline in the housing market,95501:04:23,599 --> 01:04:27,360and that just simply has not happened. I don't know how inflation has95601:04:27,400 --> 01:04:31,480gone from nine point one to four. Yeah, with the housing market continuing95701:04:31,519 --> 01:04:35,639to be strong. Did you seethe pc PC report that front of personal95801:04:36,000 --> 01:04:40,760Do you want to explain what pcis versus CPI? Yeah? So CPI95901:04:41,000 --> 01:04:44,119is the consumer price index. That'sthe one that everyone knows and hears about96001:04:44,119 --> 01:04:47,480on the news, the one that'snot reported because I really don't know why,96101:04:47,679 --> 01:04:50,960but it's it's it's just not forwhatever reason, it doesn't headline.96201:04:51,119 --> 01:04:56,480It doesn't I think because they don'tunderstand it. Maybe it's the price consumers96301:04:56,880 --> 01:05:03,159price that the consumer expenditure personal consumersconsumers. It works similar to the CPI.96401:05:03,360 --> 01:05:08,880It's just it's the FEDS calculation ofinflation that's the one they use to96501:05:08,920 --> 01:05:13,239make their economic decisions based on well, and the difference is the consumer price96601:05:13,360 --> 01:05:19,239Index is what consumers pay for things. The personal consumption indexes is what everybody96701:05:19,320 --> 01:05:25,079pays for everything. And the exampleI think that it is the most clear96801:05:25,159 --> 01:05:29,639is health insurance. Excuse me,medical bills. If you go to a96901:05:29,760 --> 01:05:33,840hospital and spend two weeks in ahospital and have one hundred thousand dollars bill,97001:05:34,880 --> 01:05:39,800you might pay five thousand of that. So the five thousand is in97101:05:39,840 --> 01:05:44,320the consumer price Index, the onehundred thousand is in the personal consumption Index.97201:05:44,440 --> 01:05:45,639Yeah. And the thing that likestood out to me on these numbers97301:05:45,719 --> 01:05:49,119was the core PC came in atfour point six percent, I believe,97401:05:49,400 --> 01:05:54,400and then the regular PC, whichincludes food and energy, was at three97501:05:54,440 --> 01:05:58,760point eight Yeah, so it wasmuch lower than the one that excluded food97601:05:58,800 --> 01:06:03,719and energy of its calculation. Thegood news is we're seeing a steady decline97701:06:03,760 --> 01:06:09,519in inflation. Yes, both onthe retail level and on the personal level,97801:06:09,920 --> 01:06:13,840and from a number of different metrics. It's just not one number and97901:06:13,880 --> 01:06:16,719you say, wow, that's nota good number. You know' that's wrong.98001:06:16,880 --> 01:06:21,239But you know, if you're oneof those investors who has this Goldilocks98101:06:21,320 --> 01:06:27,719bull rally in your head, youneed inflation to kind of stay up right,98201:06:27,760 --> 01:06:30,760because that means the economy keeps growing. Well, you want to find98301:06:30,800 --> 01:06:32,599your ear Yeah, you want adegree of inflation. That's why the FEDS98401:06:32,639 --> 01:06:35,840target is two. Yeah, Soyou do want some inflation because if we98501:06:35,880 --> 01:06:40,679go into deflation, that's where wereally start to see problems in corporate profits98601:06:40,719 --> 01:06:45,159and that's when valuations really really matter. That's bad. Yeah, that's bad.98701:06:45,639 --> 01:06:48,159M with the regional bank. Sowe talked about the back in March.98801:06:48,239 --> 01:06:53,039You mentioned the banks of the threebanks failing, and of course for98901:06:53,079 --> 01:06:57,159a period of time after that,late March into April, it was kind99001:06:57,199 --> 01:07:00,719of walking on egg shells. Nobodywanted to be along the market on Friday99101:07:00,719 --> 01:07:02,599because you didn't know who is goingto go under over the weekend, and99201:07:02,960 --> 01:07:06,639nobody has. No other banks havegone under. That's not to say that99301:07:06,719 --> 01:07:13,559banks aren't struggling. But the KRwhich is the regional bank exchange traded fund,99401:07:13,599 --> 01:07:16,440I watched that pretty closely. Uh. It includes a lot of different99501:07:16,440 --> 01:07:23,079regional banks. It continues to reboundup up a twenty percent off of the99601:07:23,199 --> 01:07:28,599May loll. Yeah. So that'sthat's telling you that the market at least99701:07:28,719 --> 01:07:32,920is getting comfortable that we may haveseen the end of the regional banking crisis.99801:07:33,000 --> 01:07:36,679It's very possible. And while wespend time on banks, this week,99901:07:36,679 --> 01:07:42,679the FED did their stress test onbanks. This is I believe they100001:07:42,679 --> 01:07:45,000only do this once or twice ayear, twice a year, twice a100101:07:45,079 --> 01:07:48,880year, twenty three of them right. And so the FED established this test100201:07:49,000 --> 01:07:55,400in following the twenty seven two thounine financial crisis. They formerly began in100301:07:55,400 --> 01:07:58,559two tho eleven, And it's reallyjust the Fed's way to make sure that100401:07:58,559 --> 01:08:02,119the banks are properly capitalized to avoidany crazy scenario like we saw in two100501:08:02,119 --> 01:08:05,199thousand and eight. So they kindof test against what happens if corporate real100601:08:05,320 --> 01:08:09,639estate mortgages at banks have on theirbalance sheet, what happens if they lose100701:08:09,719 --> 01:08:13,519thirty percent value? Do they haveenough capital reserves to make sure that their100801:08:13,519 --> 01:08:17,600obligations are satisfied? And again allthe banks passed this time in this bank100901:08:18,039 --> 01:08:23,119test, but it's not they don'ttest regional banks. So they actually the101001:08:23,199 --> 01:08:27,640only test I believe it was twentythree banks this year major banks, which101101:08:27,720 --> 01:08:30,960was down from previous years. Imean, in twenty twenty two is thirty101201:08:30,000 --> 01:08:33,800four banks, and they changed thetest a little bit. This year they101301:08:33,920 --> 01:08:38,680put a little bit more. It'sharder to pass the test, they say,101401:08:38,720 --> 01:08:42,720because they put into some criteria thatnormally isn't in There is what happens101501:08:42,720 --> 01:08:46,119when interest rates increased super fast?Right, and that wasn't something that was101601:08:46,159 --> 01:08:51,119included in previous tests. But thetest that was formed this year was done101701:08:51,159 --> 01:08:57,960before the March crisis, so theyweren't they didn't know anything about the banks101801:08:57,960 --> 01:09:00,680when they formulated this test. Andjust so anyone knows, in order to101901:09:00,680 --> 01:09:04,079be tested, you have to havebetween one hundred billion and two hundred and102001:09:04,399 --> 01:09:10,800fifty billion in assets. Okay,good to make major banks, yes.102101:09:11,399 --> 01:09:14,159And that's then when people are like, well, I couldn't have FED know102201:09:14,279 --> 01:09:16,199that the regional banks we're going todo this, Well, they don't test102301:09:16,239 --> 01:09:20,520them, right. That's more onthe regional fed level, because regional feds102401:09:20,920 --> 01:09:25,560people don't know. There's do youhave the overall feder reserve, but it's102501:09:25,600 --> 01:09:30,399a board of governors and a governorhas each region the of America and they102601:09:30,399 --> 01:09:32,800all come and help make the decisionon the interest rate policy. We'll hope102701:09:32,920 --> 01:09:35,800that that's no longer, although youknow, it's interesting I do have clients102801:09:35,840 --> 01:09:41,079ask about it from time to time, Ask about the regional banks, ask102901:09:41,159 --> 01:09:45,479about insurance. That's sort of thing. Um. We are pleased to hear103001:09:45,560 --> 01:09:50,319the reports that our insurance from ourclearing from OURBC is one hundred million dollars103101:09:51,359 --> 01:09:56,960per acount YEP. And so ifyou have more than that, we probably103201:09:57,000 --> 01:10:02,239can't help you. U of theone of the stocks, it's a mystery103301:10:02,279 --> 01:10:06,920to me. Maybe you guys canfigure this out for me. Occidental Petroleum,103401:10:08,119 --> 01:10:13,720this is a lagging stock. WarrenBuffett continues to buy the stock.103501:10:14,359 --> 01:10:17,000He now owns twenty five percent ofthe company. He's been buying it so103601:10:17,079 --> 01:10:20,920much and so long that when heannounces he's bought more, nobody cares anymore.103701:10:20,960 --> 01:10:27,319They yawn. And stock is downsix percent over the last twelve months.103801:10:27,960 --> 01:10:30,800Is trading at the same price thatit was in two thousand and seven,103901:10:32,119 --> 01:10:34,520the same price as it was intwo thousand and seven. You think104001:10:34,520 --> 01:10:38,079he's just years ago. You thinkhe's just trying to buy it all.104101:10:38,079 --> 01:10:43,239Eventually, the pe is not extraordinary, Jalan. It's twelve point five Chevron104201:10:43,279 --> 01:10:46,079and Xon or eleven. So thePE is a little higher than the Chevron104301:10:46,199 --> 01:10:53,560Xon dividends only one point two xthree point four Chevron three point nine makes104401:10:53,560 --> 01:10:55,880you wonder what he season in.I mean, it's a high pe,104501:10:56,319 --> 01:11:01,520low dividend, low growth. Iwish I knew, I knew I see104601:11:01,520 --> 01:11:04,359a value investor. He's a valueinvestor. But I will say that he's104701:11:04,399 --> 01:11:09,640been buying the stock for You're rightthat that segment of the market is out104801:11:09,680 --> 01:11:13,760of favor. But then wouldn't yousay that as Chevron and Xon are also104901:11:15,039 --> 01:11:18,520value plays. That's why I triedto compare apples and apples here, and105001:11:18,600 --> 01:11:24,600if you take all of the apples, Warren's apple seems to have the most105101:11:24,600 --> 01:11:27,760holes. Yeah, but you know, if you're going to ask a group105201:11:27,800 --> 01:11:31,279of people, which are these companies? Do you know Chevron x Oxydental Petroleum,105301:11:31,359 --> 01:11:35,359It's like that's the last one.I think it's more so probably people105401:11:35,439 --> 01:11:40,720know the name chevn Xon a lotmore. I guess. I guess I105501:11:40,800 --> 01:11:45,439keep asking myself what's Warren c here? And that's what I'm wondering, And105601:11:45,439 --> 01:11:48,119you're one and the same thing.Yeah, I thought have some brilliant idea.105701:11:48,199 --> 01:11:51,640But if you want to buy somethingthat Warren Buffett is buying, that105801:11:51,760 --> 01:11:58,239hasn't gone crazy. Oxygenal petroleum apparentlyis available talk in a year and it's105901:11:58,239 --> 01:12:00,680going to be up like twenty youwould think. I mean, he's the106001:12:00,880 --> 01:12:05,359excellent investor, has a big groupof people working with him. They're seeing106101:12:05,439 --> 01:12:10,800something in oxy that I'm not seeing. They must. Yeah, Amazon,106201:12:11,199 --> 01:12:14,680mid March, the stock was miredin the eighties. Remember that. Back106301:12:14,680 --> 01:12:16,520in mid March you couldn't give itaway. I mean, the socket dropped106401:12:16,520 --> 01:12:20,880from one hundred and fifty to eighty. And they had seen their day that106501:12:21,039 --> 01:12:26,640Walmart's going to do with the competitionand Target and you know, they're having106601:12:26,640 --> 01:12:30,199to pay too much and they're goingto unionize, and it's all that their106701:12:30,199 --> 01:12:33,399web services business, which is whatdrives the company, was slowing, and106801:12:33,520 --> 01:12:36,960you know, why would we wantto do that? Everything was bad news.106901:12:38,000 --> 01:12:40,720And now just like that, it'sI want thirty And along came AI.107001:12:41,439 --> 01:12:45,640Yep, along came artificial intelligence,and it has literally been off to107101:12:45,680 --> 01:12:50,279the races ever since. Stocks risenthirty two percent in the last thirty days.107201:12:50,319 --> 01:12:55,880Thirty two. This is why wescratch our heads and hesitate and have107301:12:56,439 --> 01:13:00,640talk about the irrational exuberance. Thirtytwo percent in thirty days for a for107401:13:01,119 --> 01:13:05,159one of the largest companies in theworld. There's been another company that's been107501:13:05,319 --> 01:13:10,680quietly on a rise is Spotify.Yes, do you Spotify? Do not?107601:13:10,840 --> 01:13:13,560I do? Do you Spotify?Or Apple Music? I used Spotify107701:13:13,640 --> 01:13:16,000for podcasts. Yeah, so Iused Spotify all the time. And it's107801:13:16,000 --> 01:13:18,119been up. So it's low.It's fifty two week low of sixty nine107901:13:18,119 --> 01:13:23,319dollars. It's currently at as aFriday is about one fifty two. It's108001:13:23,359 --> 01:13:26,920more than doubled in the last year. And what they did right now in108101:13:26,960 --> 01:13:30,800the last week was do a hugeoverhaul of their platform on the computer and108201:13:30,840 --> 01:13:33,159the app. They added AI.They added like an AI DJ, so108301:13:33,199 --> 01:13:39,520they started using They dove full intoAI and they finally put it out and108401:13:39,560 --> 01:13:43,399it works great. But they've beenon the rise pretty much not stop for108501:13:43,399 --> 01:13:46,520the last fifty two weeks. Andsince it's it debuted, it's still under108601:13:46,560 --> 01:13:50,000its IPO price of one sixty three, but it's been climbing back and no108701:13:50,039 --> 01:13:53,119one, I don't see it onthe news. It almost it's just been108801:13:53,239 --> 01:13:56,079doing this thing, and I thinkpart of it is because of the AI.108901:13:56,800 --> 01:14:01,319Yeah, it's amazing. We don'thave any idea as we sit here109001:14:01,720 --> 01:14:09,000on July second, how much AIis going to impact us. Well,109101:14:09,039 --> 01:14:11,920they say it grows exponentially too,So I mean how fast it grew in109201:14:11,960 --> 01:14:17,520the last year ten years from regativelyand negatively. Yeah, it wasn't a109301:14:17,800 --> 01:14:23,960positive and negative that's for sure.Yeah, it makes life easier. Yeah,109401:14:24,279 --> 01:14:27,640it's probably so that's kind of ironic, right, we're going positive and109501:14:27,680 --> 01:14:33,359negative in an electric vehicle world batteries. Oh, I was trying not to109601:14:33,399 --> 01:14:35,399laugh. I was just trying togo on and move on with that one.109701:14:35,399 --> 01:14:41,880But right along, wasn't that wasn'tthat AI that taught the robots how109801:14:41,920 --> 01:14:45,760to play soccer? Yeah? Rememberthat? That's scary. Well, it's109901:14:45,760 --> 01:14:48,159like the I robot movies coming alivefrom Will Smith's movie back in the early110001:14:48,159 --> 01:14:51,760two thousands. They taught it canbe scary these robots start having a mind110101:14:51,760 --> 01:14:56,760of their own. They did thisone where it was a drone was they110201:14:56,760 --> 01:14:59,239were trying to shoot things down anddoing a test and stuff, and then110301:14:59,560 --> 01:15:01,479they saw it started kind of gettingout of control, so the control tower110401:15:01,600 --> 01:15:05,079try to shut it off and saydon't shoot this, and then the drone110501:15:05,119 --> 01:15:10,319they said in like different words obviouslyit got mad and started aiming at the110601:15:10,319 --> 01:15:12,880tower to shut it off, becausethat's the person I was telling it to110701:15:12,920 --> 01:15:15,520not do it so they could gorogue. Yeah, that's crazy. Well,110801:15:15,520 --> 01:15:19,760I mean when you when you teachthese robots how to play basic soccer110901:15:20,319 --> 01:15:25,920and then they somehow teach each otherhow to play it, Well, that's111001:15:25,960 --> 01:15:30,760like, are you serious? I'mmore scared of humans. But if you111101:15:30,840 --> 01:15:33,359really want to get scared, youcan watch black Mirror on Netflix. Black111201:15:33,399 --> 01:15:36,760Mirror. Yeah, and that willmake you feel a full ludlight. You111301:15:36,800 --> 01:15:40,800will be a you will never wantto touch another phone again. Well,111401:15:40,800 --> 01:15:43,359I get scared to death every morningwhen I look in the white mirror,111501:15:43,359 --> 01:15:48,560so I don't need a black mirrorfor that. We'll be back with a111601:15:48,600 --> 01:15:54,079couple more segments right after this break. Thanks again for joining this. So111701:15:55,479 --> 01:15:59,960you guys just have no sense ofhumor, no sense of humor, nothing.111801:16:00,680 --> 01:16:02,239They're not giving me anything here becauseyou don't want to laugh at my111901:16:02,279 --> 01:16:05,520jokes. Just leave me out there, just like hanging, dangling, like112001:16:05,680 --> 01:16:13,000dangling like a dangling party stepping listeners. Oh, Chris, you like it,112101:16:14,319 --> 01:16:16,600You'll text you let me see ifhe was ready. Eight minutes ago,112201:16:16,760 --> 01:16:33,840it was. Yeah, yes,it's buried in asking fuck off.112301:16:36,800 --> 01:16:53,439Yeah, don't mean to sit out. He get it twelve minutes, John,112401:16:53,520 --> 01:17:02,319take his seat. Yeah, byit right now we can talk about112501:17:03,279 --> 01:17:06,680I was reading stuff on the SecureAct two point Oh you guys want to112601:17:06,680 --> 01:17:12,399talk about that, okay, andwe've talked about it before on that's fine.112701:17:13,039 --> 01:17:15,399Got some bullet and how does itinvolve you? That would be the112801:17:15,399 --> 01:17:18,800important part, right, Uh,well, they can always call. We112901:17:18,800 --> 01:17:25,359can talk a yout more about itbecause it and it is well I got113001:17:25,359 --> 01:17:28,159it from estate planning. And thenI also want to talk about Durrible Powers113101:17:28,159 --> 01:17:30,960of Attorney. Okay, good right, Dylan, you ready, yep,113201:17:31,359 --> 01:17:35,560we need this, sure you canactually have it. I need right for113301:17:35,600 --> 01:17:42,079this segment. Terrible power of Attorneys. That's the stuff you've been working on113401:17:42,119 --> 01:17:45,359all week and all that stuff we'reyou're doing that huh oh, this stuff113501:17:45,359 --> 01:17:47,960you've been printing out for Yeah,I saw the Terrible Power attorney and stuff.113601:17:47,960 --> 01:17:51,680We'll talk about it, right,it's fresh in your mind. That's113701:17:51,680 --> 01:17:55,640all I do. These things.You wait, you're coming. Is it113801:17:55,720 --> 01:17:59,600just Edward Law? Okay, that'swhat I thought, Edward Law Firm.113901:17:59,680 --> 01:18:02,479Yeah, there's and Edward Law inDallas, and there there's a couple other114001:18:02,479 --> 01:18:08,720words. I used to work thebig firm and Scots used to work for114101:18:09,319 --> 01:18:15,680Dana Law firm. I fig,why Edward. Oh, my dad's named114201:18:15,800 --> 01:18:18,319Edward, my son's names Edward.My name is Edward. So your name114301:18:18,359 --> 01:18:23,119is actually Edward? Oh it is? Yeah? Yeah, okay, you114401:18:23,279 --> 01:18:27,199want to I just want to bea rebel. Your middle name, Well,114501:18:27,239 --> 01:18:29,279I was going to use my lastname, and then I thought,114601:18:30,159 --> 01:18:32,560no, I'm in instead of usingEdward or like when you when we yeah,114701:18:32,560 --> 01:18:35,079when we talked to you was Jonathan. Yeah. I don't know why114801:18:35,079 --> 01:18:39,319I didn't. I just decided Edward. I wasn't gonna work I was gonna114901:18:39,359 --> 01:18:41,600use my last name. But Ithought, you know, there are people115001:18:41,600 --> 01:18:44,840out there that literally pick and chooseon, you know, whether or not115101:18:44,960 --> 01:18:46,640the work with somebody just based ontheir last name. I thought, maybe115201:18:46,640 --> 01:18:49,840you should bought it from somebody else. What's that thought? Yeah, like115301:18:49,840 --> 01:18:53,399marked, you bought a client basefrom somebody. All right, let's hit115401:18:53,439 --> 01:18:58,640this twelve twenty five three two one. Welcome back. You're listening to the115501:18:58,640 --> 01:19:01,800Money Matter Show. It's been ajam show with a great end of the115601:19:01,840 --> 01:19:05,359second quarter, and we're gonna startthe third quarter coming up tomorrow with a115701:19:05,359 --> 01:19:09,640half day, and then we dohave Tuesday off for fourth of July,115801:19:09,800 --> 01:19:13,720our country's birthday. It's gonna befun. But this segment we have Jonathan115901:19:13,840 --> 01:19:16,720Sabilia of Edward Law Firm. Wegot talking about I think we're gonna be116001:19:16,720 --> 01:19:19,520talking about power, durable, powerof attorney and all that stuff in the116101:19:19,640 --> 01:19:23,920state planning world. He's a greatestate planner and just teamed up with him116201:19:23,920 --> 01:19:26,319a few months ago. So howyou doing, John Good Dylan, Thank116301:19:26,319 --> 01:19:30,359you very well. Happy fourth tomorrow? You got any fun plans for the116401:19:30,359 --> 01:19:33,319fourth on Tuesday? Tuesday? Excuseme? Any fun plans? Just making116501:19:33,319 --> 01:19:36,039sure that the kids stay safe andget to see some fireworks. You get116601:19:36,039 --> 01:19:41,159a couple of young kids, sothat's a trying to keep the fireworks.116701:19:41,399 --> 01:19:43,600Yeah, and we live in thedesert, so we had to worry.116801:19:43,680 --> 01:19:46,000I want to buy my own fireworks, but I'm afraid that everything's gonna go116901:19:46,079 --> 01:19:49,479up and fire around the house.I've been a heavily wooded area and my117001:19:49,520 --> 01:19:54,159biggest concern just fireworks been shot offand getting in the trees. Yeah,117101:19:54,279 --> 01:19:57,439and you and you take care ofyour lawns, so we don't want that117201:19:57,560 --> 01:19:59,359to go up in flames. Well, no, and the trees. U117301:20:00,079 --> 01:20:03,560there's hundreds of trees in my area. I live again for a little historic117401:20:03,600 --> 01:20:06,119district, but down by the river, so there's a lot of it's very117501:20:06,159 --> 01:20:11,359heavily wooded. And I always wonevery fourth of Joe. I always hold117601:20:11,399 --> 01:20:14,600my breath that sparks don't get inthe trees and start something, because you117701:20:14,640 --> 01:20:16,119get a couple of trees on fire, you could have all hell break loose117801:20:16,199 --> 01:20:20,079down there, just like down aboutsixty miles south of here, Sierra Vista.117901:20:20,239 --> 01:20:25,119Yeah, yeah, I didn't youknow that got so little coverage,118001:20:25,520 --> 01:20:28,279which is shocking to me. Youcould almost see the smoke that shot.118101:20:28,800 --> 01:20:32,760Yeah they did. There were housesthreatened to our people's evacuated. Um,118201:20:33,079 --> 01:20:36,960your wife were afforded on it,right. So what she did she she118301:20:38,239 --> 01:20:41,680reported on a future She's the onethat brought it to my attention, so118401:20:41,880 --> 01:20:44,640because you know, she's in thenews, and I don't watch a lot118501:20:44,720 --> 01:20:46,680of the news, so I getit firsthand from her when she comes home118601:20:47,119 --> 01:20:51,119after a long day and she wastelling me about how she reported on the118701:20:51,279 --> 01:20:56,720on the fires around Arizona. Butit's it's nothing uncommon. We have fires118801:20:56,720 --> 01:20:59,359here every year, but it isuncommon for it to be so close,118901:20:59,520 --> 01:21:04,079so close to a residence to residences. Tucson threatened people up north by Prescott.119001:21:04,399 --> 01:21:10,039Yeah so, but you know,um Jo, I should mention that119101:21:10,159 --> 01:21:14,960Jonathan has his own law firm.You're not a Greenberg Financial employee or a119201:21:15,000 --> 01:21:23,039self employed lawyer who is domiciled withinthe beautiful office of Greenberg Financial. Yeah,119301:21:23,039 --> 01:21:26,319it's it's been great. I appreciateit. I have a spot over119401:21:26,399 --> 01:21:30,720here that uh, you know,working alongside you guys, not with you,119501:21:30,800 --> 01:21:33,000but alongside and see what you guysdo on a day to day basis119601:21:33,000 --> 01:21:38,159pretty inspiring and it's it's good tosee. It's nice to have people I119701:21:38,159 --> 01:21:42,000could bounce some ideas off of inan area that I don't um, you119801:21:42,039 --> 01:21:45,560know, I'm not always up todate on. Right. Then, you've119901:21:45,640 --> 01:21:47,640been meeting with our clients. Sowe've been meeting with some of your clients.120001:21:47,680 --> 01:21:53,680It's a wonderful relationship we got going. Uh first consultation with you is120101:21:53,720 --> 01:21:58,119free. Correct. So someone that'sconsidering a trust or considering a will.120201:21:58,560 --> 01:22:04,880Uh, you have state planning abilities, you have uh tax knowledge uh knowledge120301:22:04,920 --> 01:22:11,720in your an attorney who specializes intaxation, so you know a lot of120401:22:11,800 --> 01:22:16,600things that uh the average attorney,god bless them, uh doesn't deal with.120501:22:17,760 --> 01:22:21,880So we we appreciate having you nearby. What's on your what's on your120601:22:21,880 --> 01:22:25,319plate, what have you been workingon? What's on my list of things120701:22:25,319 --> 01:22:28,359to talk about? Um, well, we'll get to the durable power of120801:22:28,399 --> 01:22:32,520attorney next. I just wanted Idid a cl this morning and they were120901:22:32,520 --> 01:22:34,760talking about the Secure Act. Iknow you guys talk about it a lot121001:22:34,800 --> 01:22:40,560because it's uh, it's very closeto your heart, uh in your industry.121101:22:40,600 --> 01:22:45,359But the cl uh continuing legal legaleducation. Okay, So, and121201:22:45,399 --> 01:22:49,560we're required to have a bunch doneby June June thirtieth, which is tomorrow.121301:22:49,680 --> 01:22:54,920So I'm cramming a little bit forsome I'm getting a couple uh uh121401:22:55,119 --> 01:22:58,159some of those classes in, butactually had to have it done by June121501:22:58,199 --> 01:23:03,119thirtieth, June thirties, which wasFriday. Right. June thirties is tomorrow,121601:23:03,199 --> 01:23:11,920right now. June thirties was Fridaytoday, recording today exactly Friday.121701:23:11,960 --> 01:23:14,960Well, we're on the honor systemhere in Arizona, so I just have121801:23:15,039 --> 01:23:18,520to have it done by June thirtieth, which was Friday. So you saying121901:23:18,600 --> 01:23:21,439you got it done was enough,Like, well, I did get it122001:23:21,479 --> 01:23:25,119done. I did a bunch ofethics ones. But I'm you know,122101:23:25,239 --> 01:23:27,880just making sure, you know,I stay on top of things. And122201:23:27,960 --> 01:23:32,840this was a CLI that I wasreally interested in learning about. So um.122301:23:32,880 --> 01:23:39,880But with that said, um uhtiming aside, you know, I122401:23:39,880 --> 01:23:42,760thought was really interesting on it.They were talking about five to twenty nine122501:23:42,800 --> 01:23:45,520plans and now that they get toroll those, if you have it for122601:23:45,880 --> 01:23:49,199fifteen years, you can roll thatinto a ROTH. Now yeah, I'm122701:23:49,199 --> 01:23:53,399not roth. It gets rolled intothe kid's name, into the kid's name.122801:23:53,479 --> 01:23:55,520It gets rolled into the kid's name, not the parents name. I122901:23:55,560 --> 01:23:59,119thought that was really interesting. Anduh, you know, obviously they're bumping123001:23:59,199 --> 01:24:03,520up the requirement distributions from seventy twoto seventy three now, and then the123101:24:03,560 --> 01:24:06,760penalties will go down from fifty percentto twenty five percent. Yep, And123201:24:06,840 --> 01:24:10,159that is like on a progressive scaletoo. And a couple of years it123301:24:10,159 --> 01:24:13,159will be our new RMD age willbe seventy four, and I think it's123401:24:13,199 --> 01:24:15,560by like twenty thirty two, theRMDAG will be seventy five. Yeah,123501:24:15,600 --> 01:24:17,520and one of the reasons why Itook it, you know, because I123601:24:17,520 --> 01:24:21,079am I work with taxes, andI work with the IRS, and even123701:24:21,079 --> 01:24:25,119though you might get hit with thosepenalties, there's there you know, if123801:24:25,159 --> 01:24:29,800you do engage with a tax professionaltax attorney, you might get those some123901:24:29,840 --> 01:24:35,279of those penalties waived if if ifyou approach one of us and we end124001:24:35,319 --> 01:24:39,960up dealing with the IRS. Sothat was one of the things that I124101:24:40,000 --> 01:24:43,119wanted to learn. I was learningabout, is you know, dealing with124201:24:43,159 --> 01:24:45,840the IRS and trying to abate penaltiesfor some of my clients. So uh124301:24:45,880 --> 01:24:48,560and I'm glad that you got youknow, I'm still you know learning,124401:24:48,880 --> 01:24:51,880Uh, you know what you guysdeal with, and you know how on124501:24:51,880 --> 01:24:55,000top of things you guys are.And I probably didn't even need to take124601:24:55,000 --> 01:24:59,479the CELA. I could probably wantaround the corner and questions our system though,124701:24:59,560 --> 01:25:01,680Yeah, got to do it allthe honor system, right, uh124801:25:01,800 --> 01:25:04,239So and then we're you know,Dylan was kind of joking around because I'm124901:25:04,279 --> 01:25:08,279sharing the office and I had sometrouble printing out some stuff, and he125001:25:09,479 --> 01:25:14,560noticed that I was printing out powersof attorney for a client because it was125101:25:14,560 --> 01:25:18,359a big, big lettering, Yeahwe have I have some documentation, and125201:25:18,439 --> 01:25:21,199I'm very front and says durable powerof attorney. And I kind of wanted125301:25:21,239 --> 01:25:26,960to chat about that because it's areally powerful tool, and it's come up125401:25:27,000 --> 01:25:32,199a few times this week. Ihave one client who's who's uh blind,125501:25:32,920 --> 01:25:38,359um, and she's having trouble,uh, you know, getting access to125601:25:38,439 --> 01:25:41,960assets, and she doesn't really trustvery many people around her in her life.125701:25:42,000 --> 01:25:44,800You know, her husband passed awayand a lot of her family lives125801:25:44,800 --> 01:25:46,840on the East Coast, so shejust has caregivers and she doesn't want to125901:25:46,840 --> 01:25:49,319give them financial access. So she'sasked me to be a you know,126001:25:49,359 --> 01:25:54,800a power of attorney for her,not just an attorney, but a power126101:25:54,800 --> 01:25:58,840of an attorney in fact, soI can deal with some of her financial126201:25:58,880 --> 01:26:03,319situations. Um. And you knowthese are important whether or not you are126301:26:03,359 --> 01:26:09,680blind or you know, you maybe a married individual. Okay. Uh.126401:26:10,000 --> 01:26:13,199Let's say we live in a communityproperty state and you only own some126501:26:13,239 --> 01:26:17,560property that's jointly all right, andthen you and then your spouse uh becomes126601:26:17,560 --> 01:26:21,000incapacitated and they're fifty fifty on thehouse and you want to sell the house.126701:26:21,039 --> 01:26:26,079You need their signature, you know. One of the best ways to126801:26:26,199 --> 01:26:29,840alleviate that because you want to sellthe house, get get a power of126901:26:29,840 --> 01:26:33,600attorney, have that set up beforehand. Um you know, UH, if127001:26:33,600 --> 01:26:38,520you're not going to do the trustuh, it's it's it's a very powerful127101:26:38,560 --> 01:26:41,319tool. It saves a lot ofmoney. It avoids, you know,127201:26:41,640 --> 01:26:45,439a lot of times having to geta guardianship. Guardianships can be very expensive127301:26:45,439 --> 01:26:48,680because not only you're hiring an attorneyfor the person applying for the guardianship,127401:26:48,720 --> 01:26:54,760but the person who needs the guardianneeds what's called uh. It needs an127501:26:54,760 --> 01:27:00,399attorney called UH that will basically makesure that their rights are protected and the127601:27:00,399 --> 01:27:05,439core process is um uh you know, make sure the process is flowing down127701:27:06,520 --> 01:27:11,439a straight line. So both attorneyshave to be protected. What this durable127801:27:11,520 --> 01:27:15,079power of attorney does. It avoidsthat avoids the court intervention, avoids judges127901:27:15,079 --> 01:27:20,920and attorney fees and filings, andallows that power of attorney to make financial128001:27:21,079 --> 01:27:28,079and life decisions for that person andyou and you use the word durable power128101:27:28,079 --> 01:27:31,600of attorney. The difference between durablepower of attorney and power of attorney.128201:27:31,840 --> 01:27:39,000Well, a durable power of attorneywithstands incapacity so hugely important. It's very128301:27:39,000 --> 01:27:42,560important, huguely important. Yeah.So once you become a capacitate, that's128401:27:42,600 --> 01:27:45,159and that's that's where it comes from. It's durable through that. Yeah.128501:27:45,239 --> 01:27:46,960The big thing you said too,is you got to get the set up128601:27:46,960 --> 01:27:50,239before you need it. It's likeinsurance. You can't do it after the128701:27:50,279 --> 01:27:55,359fact, right Exactly. If someone'sacapacitated, then we're doing the guardianship,128801:27:55,399 --> 01:27:58,960and then we're hiring attorneys, andthen we're makes a lot messier. Yeah.128901:27:59,159 --> 01:28:03,319Yeah, we're filing into probate exactly. Yeah. Yeah. I had129001:28:03,359 --> 01:28:08,840a client that I'm still dealing withbecause there we are going into probate because129101:28:09,960 --> 01:28:15,479her aunt finally passed away. Butthey were looking for an emergency conservatorship because129201:28:15,520 --> 01:28:20,880the mom was in the aunt wasin the hospital. I don't do emergency129301:28:20,880 --> 01:28:27,800conservatorships. And the only attorney Idid know they asked for fifteen thousand dollars129401:28:27,800 --> 01:28:31,520attainer um, and I, youknow, I kind of instructed a late.129501:28:31,560 --> 01:28:33,800I said, well, you canpay him fifteen thousand dollars. But129601:28:34,000 --> 01:28:38,520it sounds like from the doctor shehas about a day to live. So129701:28:38,760 --> 01:28:43,640you guys can eat one more dayof the hospital hospital bills, or you129801:28:43,760 --> 01:28:46,640can you know, engage with thisattorney and then you know, get access129901:28:46,680 --> 01:28:50,760to our bank accounts, because that'swhat the hospital wanted, is money to130001:28:50,880 --> 01:28:55,720be paid to place her in ahospice, right and then, And the130101:28:56,399 --> 01:29:00,119important thing to know about an attorneyor about excuse me, about a power.130201:29:00,359 --> 01:29:02,960It has to be durable. That'sthe only thing that makes any sense130301:29:03,000 --> 01:29:08,600at all. It has to bedurable. But when I had a call130401:29:08,720 --> 01:29:13,920the other day and they gal said, my sister has died, it's just130501:29:14,079 --> 01:29:16,319the sister is a client of ours. She said, I'm calling to tell130601:29:16,359 --> 01:29:20,880you my sister passed away. ButI have her power of attorney, so130701:29:20,920 --> 01:29:25,560it's okay. I said, no, no, she has no parv of130801:29:25,560 --> 01:29:30,279attorney. She's dead. And andthat the the par of attorney, whether130901:29:30,319 --> 01:29:33,439it be a regular power of attorneyor a durable power of attorney, dies131001:29:33,520 --> 01:29:39,039when the client dies, because theywhen you essentially, when you don't have131101:29:39,079 --> 01:29:44,079the ability to revoke something, itdies, right exactly. And I had131201:29:44,119 --> 01:29:47,399that issue recently as well. Umwe did in a state plan, we131301:29:47,439 --> 01:29:50,319did some power as of attorney.We did a will, and we did131401:29:51,359 --> 01:29:59,840beneficiary deeds and the person who wasthe poah after the principle finally passed away,131501:30:00,199 --> 01:30:02,000was wondering why she couldn't get accessto the bank accounts and I said,131601:30:02,039 --> 01:30:05,039well, you know, that's whywe put beneficiaries on the bank accounts.131701:30:05,119 --> 01:30:06,800And she's like, well, Iwant to get access to the bank131801:30:06,800 --> 01:30:10,479accounts. I'm like, well,you're not a beneficiary. We've already taken131901:30:10,479 --> 01:30:14,279care of that. Where the pointwas avoid probate and you to have power132001:30:14,279 --> 01:30:19,239of attorney while the principle was incapacitated, and um, it's important to know132101:30:19,359 --> 01:30:25,680that, all right, Um,that the power of attorney only goes ends132201:30:26,199 --> 01:30:30,359at the at the death of theprinciple. Who is the person is the132301:30:30,399 --> 01:30:32,520person signing the right? And there'ssomething you have to have, like,132401:30:32,600 --> 01:30:36,560jonaanschais something you want to have himin place before these things happen. Yeah,132501:30:36,560 --> 01:30:41,079exactly, life in turance. Youcan't buy a life insurance you any132601:30:41,079 --> 01:30:44,520type of hissarance. Youne that beforethe fact. Jonathan, thank you for132701:30:44,640 --> 01:30:48,119joining us. Jonathan is here inour office. Um, he's a lawyer,132801:30:48,239 --> 01:30:53,920he had his own firm. Uh. The initial appointment is no charge.132901:30:54,479 --> 01:30:58,960Jonathan does wills, he does trust, he does very sophisticated tax planning133001:30:59,079 --> 01:31:03,079things. We love having him hereand uh, if you have any needs133101:31:03,119 --> 01:31:05,960along those lines, please give usa call. We'll put you in touch133201:31:06,000 --> 01:31:10,239with Jonathan, and I know he'dlove to meet with you. We'll be133301:31:10,279 --> 01:31:14,640back with the final segment of theMoney Matter Show right after this break.133401:31:14,640 --> 01:31:17,079Thanks again for taking time to joinus on the Sunday morn Jonathan. Thank133501:31:17,119 --> 01:31:24,520you. Happy Sunday, guys.Perfect hammered it. So there's also a133601:31:24,600 --> 01:31:28,720retirement planned loss and found searchable databasethat they're implementing. You guys know that133701:31:29,680 --> 01:31:35,600there's retirement loss and found retirement lossand database. Oh not, like what133801:31:35,720 --> 01:31:39,840if they died? Is that whatyou're talking about? Or if like what133901:31:39,880 --> 01:31:45,279it was taught talking about a retirementaccount that I don't know about? I134001:31:45,279 --> 01:31:48,239think I told you guys and content. Yeah. Yeah, the only reason134101:31:48,239 --> 01:31:51,800I knew about it was because Isaw when I got my tax transcripts.134201:31:51,800 --> 01:31:58,199I saw that I had a fairmarket value and no idea I had interesting,134301:31:59,479 --> 01:32:01,520that's only I do That money's beensitting there forever, So I guess134401:32:01,680 --> 01:32:10,680this this uh thing retirement plan awesomefound that creating I think anyway. Thank134501:32:10,720 --> 01:32:14,880you guys for the easy softball questions. Thanks buddy. We can make it134601:32:14,960 --> 01:32:16,720hard next time. I just don'teven know how the questions ask. I'm134701:32:16,720 --> 01:32:19,920gonna look up hard ask questions now. I'm gonna I'm gonna do it.134801:32:23,880 --> 01:32:26,319Yeah, you're pretty smooth on it. You did, you guys, you're134901:32:26,359 --> 01:32:30,960great moths through your wife. Ihope you guys get really drunk tonight.135001:32:30,039 --> 01:32:33,680Do you are you? Are youokay with the listeners knowing who your wife135101:32:33,800 --> 01:32:38,560is? Okay? I was gonnabring it now. I don't say unless135201:32:38,560 --> 01:32:41,640you get his permission. Your listenersare fake news, right? You know?135301:32:41,680 --> 01:32:45,359I heard you say that a fewtimes. Fakes the very first time.135401:32:45,479 --> 01:32:47,399What's that fake news? When didyou hear me say fake news?135501:32:47,479 --> 01:32:54,960You said you and I think timewas on you guys were joking around about135601:32:55,000 --> 01:32:58,920fake news when you guys were onradio. There is a lot of fake135701:32:58,960 --> 01:33:00,920news out there, so awfully.Yeah, she's the one that told me.135801:33:01,239 --> 01:33:05,760She's the one back in two thousandand sixteen when it all started coming135901:33:05,800 --> 01:33:12,159out, we were Donald Jacksonville.He said, you wouldn't believe Monica said136001:33:12,199 --> 01:33:15,640that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely, She's like they don't know136101:33:15,640 --> 01:33:19,720where it's coming from. Well,you got a whole bunch of channels that136201:33:19,800 --> 01:33:23,840are twenty four seven news, andguess why there's not news twenty four seven.136301:33:24,119 --> 01:33:29,000Yeah, make sh up. Yeah, thank you Jonathan very much.136401:33:29,479 --> 01:33:32,239Oh you guys, let's do it. You bring it in. Todd Glick136501:33:32,520 --> 01:33:38,399Junior. Dylan brought in the Jonathan'sYeah, fucker, do something for God's136601:33:38,399 --> 01:33:44,199sake, make yourself useful. Threetwo one. Welcome back to the Money136701:33:44,279 --> 01:33:46,680Matters Show. My name is ToddGlick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg and136801:33:46,800 --> 01:33:50,000Dave Sherwood. What a fun week, you know, and when you can136901:33:50,079 --> 01:33:54,960see a week that gains over twopercent, you don't see too many of137001:33:55,000 --> 01:33:57,479them. No, it's and Iwill say, we did not see this137101:33:57,560 --> 01:34:00,479coming. We did not see thiskind of a first half of the interest137201:34:00,600 --> 01:34:04,439rates are rising, the economy isslowing. They're trying to bring inflation down.137301:34:05,840 --> 01:34:12,920Many corporations that have reported earnings havereported disappointing guidance, suggesting things are137401:34:12,920 --> 01:34:15,279slowing down. It's not an environmentwhere you would expect the market to be137501:34:15,319 --> 01:34:19,039setting a new fifty two weeks high, but it did. Yeah, and137601:34:19,159 --> 01:34:23,760people still continue to go into thosemegacap tech stocks, right, I mean,137701:34:24,279 --> 01:34:28,680right here, I have a chargeshows that hedge fund managers are overweight137801:34:30,199 --> 01:34:33,399megacap tech stocks the most since twentytwenty. Uh those are you know,137901:34:33,479 --> 01:34:38,880your Apples and Amazon's, Google,Meta Microsoft. It makes sense too.138001:34:38,880 --> 01:34:43,239We've pointed out constantly the difference betweenthe S and P five hundred and equal138101:34:43,239 --> 01:34:46,439weighted. Everyone is loading into that. A lot of people. These names138201:34:46,520 --> 01:34:50,920had a good day on Friday becauseif hedge fund managers weren't in there during138301:34:50,920 --> 01:34:54,560that quarter, guess what they're doing. They're buying those stocks so they can138401:34:54,560 --> 01:34:57,359show at the end of the quarterthat they that they owned it. And138501:34:57,399 --> 01:35:00,359that's what it was on Friday.All of the big winners for the year138601:35:00,640 --> 01:35:03,399were up big on Friday. Yeah, I mean Apple hit over three trillion138701:35:03,399 --> 01:35:09,319dollars marketcount in the portfolio. Theywanted to show that on their quarters,138801:35:09,319 --> 01:35:12,760which would be a shock if Applehasn't been part of their portfolio. And138901:35:13,479 --> 01:35:15,319yes, you know, one ofthe sectors that has been lagging the SP139001:35:15,439 --> 01:35:21,680five hundred is the consumer staples sectorof the SMP and those are things like139101:35:21,800 --> 01:35:28,760Walmart and Target and Altria, PhilipMorris, those type of stocks the recession139201:35:28,800 --> 01:35:30,600proof stocks, as they say,right, yeah, well I saw an139301:35:30,600 --> 01:35:35,640interesting UH insight where insiders, corporateinsiders, you you get to see their139401:35:35,640 --> 01:35:41,760buy or sell in the ratio ofwhich and right now they're buying a lot.139501:35:42,079 --> 01:35:45,720The corporate insiders of consumer staple companiesare buying a lot right now,139601:35:45,760 --> 01:35:50,800and normally when they do there's avery successful rin rate. And also it's139701:35:51,000 --> 01:35:56,720trailing, which you want to lookfor opportunities that aren't information technology right,139801:35:56,760 --> 01:36:00,399which is well exceeded the S andP five hundred returns. You want to139901:36:00,439 --> 01:36:04,000try to find some areas that maybehave a chance to come back. I140001:36:04,000 --> 01:36:08,600mean, really, we saw thatcoming into twenty twenty three, technology was140101:36:08,720 --> 01:36:13,479terrible. You go into technology thatwent great, Energy was the best performing140201:36:13,479 --> 01:36:16,359in twenty right, and they wentopposite. So sometimes it makes sense to140301:36:16,399 --> 01:36:19,520try to find the areas that haven'tbeen performing as well, things like we've140401:36:19,560 --> 01:36:24,800already pointed out with value stocks downfour percent on the year on average with140501:36:24,880 --> 01:36:30,199those ETFs. Eventually these stocks willcome back and the other stocks that are140601:36:30,560 --> 01:36:33,199have these meteoritic rises will come backto gravity as well. One of the140701:36:33,239 --> 01:36:39,119stocks in that segment is three Mthat's one of the worst performing dallastocks.140801:36:39,119 --> 01:36:42,359It was one of the worst performingdallastocks last year. It's one of the140901:36:42,439 --> 01:36:47,079worst performing dallastocks this year. They'vebeen mired in litigation that has took the141001:36:47,079 --> 01:36:51,680stock down to levels not seen inten years, hit a ten year low.141101:36:51,840 --> 01:36:56,840They got a bump this week afterlast week after reporting they've reached a141201:36:56,960 --> 01:37:02,479ten billion dollars settlement with US townsand cities over a claim that contaminated drinking141301:37:02,520 --> 01:37:08,600water. Whether Forever Chemicals so calledForever Chemicals. Have you heard about those141401:37:08,640 --> 01:37:11,840or not, But if you haven'tgoogle them, it's Forever Chemicals. The141501:37:11,880 --> 01:37:15,159stock is trading at twelve times earningsas a dividend of six percent. That141601:37:15,239 --> 01:37:21,760appears to be safe. They stillhave the military hearing aid lawsuit hanging over141701:37:21,800 --> 01:37:26,520their head, but they did settleone of the major lawsuits that many thought141801:37:27,520 --> 01:37:30,479they might not be able to settleand stay in business, and they settle141901:37:30,520 --> 01:37:34,279up for ten billions, at whichthe three M is workable. If they142001:37:34,319 --> 01:37:39,560can get a settlement of the hearingaid deal, that might be a stock.142101:37:39,600 --> 01:37:43,479But that's the kind of stock thatis just languishing right now in this142201:37:43,560 --> 01:37:49,039market. That's on fire. Yeah. Another one's Walgreens DAL component already down142301:37:49,119 --> 01:37:55,640thirteen percent this year. Walgreens droppedto a thirteen year LOLL thirteen year low142401:37:55,960 --> 01:38:00,439last week as the end of COVIDhas seen it decreased to start traffic and142501:38:00,560 --> 01:38:04,560Amazon making big strides in the prescriptionbusiness. You know, I don't see142601:38:04,600 --> 01:38:10,600new Walgerens popping up around Twucson.Have you noticed that it's always needs pops142701:38:10,680 --> 01:38:14,319up, Yeah, not new onesbeing built. Deutsche Bank I love this.142801:38:14,640 --> 01:38:17,600Deutsche Bank decides that a thirteen yearlull is a good place to go142901:38:17,680 --> 01:38:21,720from buy to hold. Well,speaking of dotche Bank, they came out143001:38:21,760 --> 01:38:27,520with a recession probability factor of onehundred percent within the next twelve months.143101:38:27,560 --> 01:38:30,399There's a they say, there's onehundred percent probability level recession. That's according143201:38:30,479 --> 01:38:38,800Dotcha Bank, and recessions have historicallycome every four years throughout our economic cycles.143301:38:39,079 --> 01:38:42,439The last one was the shortest onein history, which was March of143401:38:42,439 --> 01:38:45,119twenty twenty. Right. Yeah,I mean in theory, you could go143501:38:45,159 --> 01:38:48,439into in the next year and theyear after without a recession, but a143601:38:48,479 --> 01:38:51,920recession in the next twelve months.When you look at the inverted yield curve.143701:38:53,239 --> 01:38:56,359I would say one hundred percent mightbe a little strong, but ninety143801:38:56,439 --> 01:39:00,079nine. Yeah, you're saying theAmazon Farma Student close is done a little143901:39:00,079 --> 01:39:04,399bit better than how they're making they'redoing. They're still struggling, and Whole144001:39:04,399 --> 01:39:09,159Foods is still struggling. There areparts of Amazon that are not on fire.144101:39:09,359 --> 01:39:11,239Right. If you're going into arecession, Whole Foods is going to144201:39:11,279 --> 01:39:15,159probably continue to struggle as well becausethat's pricier food. It is pricier and144301:39:15,479 --> 01:39:18,079you and it's not really a grocerieswhat's the word I want to use.144401:39:18,319 --> 01:39:24,720If you need groceries, Whole Foodsprobably isn't some place to go because you're144501:39:24,760 --> 01:39:28,319gonna have a hard time finding ketchup, you know, it's it's all all144601:39:28,399 --> 01:39:32,720kind of one off. I'm notsure frankly who shops there, but there's144701:39:32,760 --> 01:39:36,159one a mile from my house andI'm in there probably once a week to144801:39:36,399 --> 01:39:42,640buy food or or meat or somethingsome kind. But when I got down144901:39:42,680 --> 01:39:45,800the eye wine selection, Yeah,but if you know, if I need145001:39:45,000 --> 01:39:47,279my wife said, oh, we'reout of ketchup front on this, I'm145101:39:47,319 --> 01:39:50,600gonna have to go three miles tothe fries to get catch up. I'm145201:39:50,640 --> 01:39:54,640not gonna find ketch up a WholeFoods, find some organic catch up.145301:39:54,680 --> 01:39:58,159I'll find some organics you don't evenknow it's catchup or mixed with mustard or145401:39:58,199 --> 01:40:01,760some some some goofy goofy thing,you know. But you know, they145501:40:01,800 --> 01:40:05,159do have wonderful pastries. It's agood wine rack. They have a lot145601:40:05,199 --> 01:40:09,319of fresh food there. That's anice store. I don't want to dis145701:40:09,720 --> 01:40:11,960I mean, if you've eaten theretoo, it's got good food. They145801:40:12,000 --> 01:40:14,479have an actual resta. You've absolutelythere, and I know it's good.145901:40:14,520 --> 01:40:18,159It's good. I don't dislike likeAJ's really but like a nation. It's146001:40:18,159 --> 01:40:23,159like a worldwide AJ's and it's I'mnot sure what it is. It's somewhere146101:40:23,399 --> 01:40:28,800it's I don't know. I likeAJ's better than Whole Foods, but that's146201:40:28,840 --> 01:40:30,920just that's just me. And maybeit's because I grew up. AJ's is146301:40:30,960 --> 01:40:33,479more boutique because it's only in Arizona. Yeah it is, it is.146401:40:34,920 --> 01:40:39,279Yeah, either way, they gotgood food. And you know it's not146501:40:39,319 --> 01:40:42,359a regular grocery store. As mypoint, Nope, Kroger that's what you146601:40:42,399 --> 01:40:46,399got. A Kroger's and video stillcontinues to run the world again. They146701:40:46,479 --> 01:40:51,800have the chip that everybody wants forai and they're scrambling to get it.146801:40:53,319 --> 01:40:56,279Uh. They are up one hundredand ninety percent this year. Finally found146901:40:56,319 --> 01:41:01,159some sellers on Monday that took aboutfive percent off that rally. No particular147001:41:01,199 --> 01:41:06,079news, it's just been going higheron no news. Biden came out and147101:41:06,079 --> 01:41:11,239said, may have more restrictions.You may recall a couple months back,147201:41:11,479 --> 01:41:17,520Biden restricted shipment of high end shipsto China. They're really concerned with China147301:41:17,640 --> 01:41:23,600being able to compete with us onchips, on computer chips which run everything147401:41:23,680 --> 01:41:28,800right, and China is not competingwith us very well. We control the147501:41:28,880 --> 01:41:33,479high end ship market, but Taiwanactually manufactures most of those chips. I147601:41:33,520 --> 01:41:36,560can't remember what the number was,but something like ninety percent of all of147701:41:36,600 --> 01:41:42,319the high end ships in the worldwere developed here, and I think it147801:41:42,359 --> 01:41:45,239was seventy percent, and ninety percentof those chips are manufactured in Taiwan.147901:41:45,279 --> 01:41:48,840Well, that's why so beneficial ofthat Taiwan is opening their factories up in148001:41:48,840 --> 01:41:51,840Phoenix. Yes, it's going tomake everything a lot quicker, right,148101:41:53,239 --> 01:41:59,479And Biden came out when Biden putthose restrictions on, and Vidia came up148201:41:59,520 --> 01:42:06,600with a chip similar to their bigH h the H one hundred, which148301:42:06,760 --> 01:42:11,640runs all of the artificial intelligence.They came up with a chip that wasn't148401:42:12,680 --> 01:42:15,560enough different from that that the USregulators said, yeah, that'll work,148501:42:16,199 --> 01:42:20,000you can sell that to China UM. And then what Biden did this past148601:42:20,039 --> 01:42:25,760week is he came out and hehe said they're thinking about restrictions on those148701:42:25,840 --> 01:42:29,399chips. Now, Well, theA one hundred, oh is that the148801:42:29,399 --> 01:42:33,920newest one one hundred was not thenewest one that's been selling out. That148901:42:33,960 --> 01:42:38,800was their previous large learning one.The one hundred is the newest one.149001:42:39,079 --> 01:42:43,399Believe is that the one they alteredto sell the China one they re engineered149101:42:43,439 --> 01:42:46,239so it would be acceptable Chin wentto China has a different it's like a149201:42:46,439 --> 01:42:48,600different No. I'm saying, yeah, but did they kind of take it149301:42:48,680 --> 01:42:51,600from the newest one the bottled aftermade it less power? Because I was149401:42:51,600 --> 01:42:54,399gonna say, if they took itfrom the H one hundred, that's already149501:42:54,399 --> 01:42:56,680outdated. Anyways, they've moved on. He just made it. I guess149601:42:56,680 --> 01:43:00,359the point is that that the biggestproblem for n video is demand and is149701:43:00,399 --> 01:43:03,960far exceeds supply, so that whetherfar whether China can't get them or not,149801:43:04,079 --> 01:43:08,000it's really at this point for themmatters not. I think it's a149901:43:08,000 --> 01:43:10,600good thing we have these restrictions becauseif you look at history, what is150001:43:10,680 --> 01:43:13,800China do? They think what wedid really well and they just copy it150101:43:13,920 --> 01:43:16,079well, and they've gone from fivepercent of the world chip market to twenty150201:43:16,079 --> 01:43:18,880five percent in the last twelve years. Well, we've gone from fifty to150301:43:19,000 --> 01:43:24,079thirty. So it's been going thewrong direction. Well, I don't know150401:43:24,239 --> 01:43:26,800how many things Biden's done right.I probably can kind of. On one150501:43:26,800 --> 01:43:30,680hand, that was very important.I liked it. I liked the chip150601:43:30,800 --> 01:43:32,520chip. I think the chip thingwas a was a move in the right150701:43:32,520 --> 01:43:36,680direction, and I think it wasimperative that we do that. U and150801:43:36,840 --> 01:43:44,039China is a real threat. Ilove seeing their economy struggling as their exports150901:43:44,039 --> 01:43:48,359slow because the US is finding otherplaces to get things. I love that151001:43:49,960 --> 01:43:55,600we need to we need to todistance ourselves from them. They are a151101:43:55,640 --> 01:44:00,319real threat on the global stage andthey're a real threat to us, and151201:44:00,079 --> 01:44:04,319I think we need to do whateverwe can to distance ourselves. And I151301:44:04,399 --> 01:44:08,399should think we're going in that direction, just slowly. I think other companies151401:44:08,399 --> 01:44:12,279are too. A lot of companiesseem to be moving their factories to Indonesia,151501:44:12,319 --> 01:44:15,800to India, to a little bitin Mexico. They're kind of getting151601:44:15,840 --> 01:44:18,159tired of China. Yeah, itis hurting China a lot. It is151701:44:18,239 --> 01:44:23,159hurting China a lot. Edit thereexports were what seven percent below what they151801:44:23,159 --> 01:44:29,159were a couple of months ago,and they're talking about infusing money into the151901:44:29,159 --> 01:44:33,520economy to try to stimulate because thingsare not recovering from COVID the way they152001:44:33,560 --> 01:44:40,359had hoped. And we'll see howit goes again. We're running out of152101:44:40,479 --> 01:44:45,640time here. We've enjoyed bringing youthis Money Matters show. Dean will be152201:44:45,760 --> 01:44:49,199traveling for one more week, butthen two weeks from today he will be152301:44:49,199 --> 01:44:54,119back real quick. How do youlike your hot dog? Like it?152401:44:54,279 --> 01:44:57,960I do catch up mustard or dothe whole fix catch it mustard? Relish?152501:44:58,039 --> 01:45:00,880I guess I'm catch up in relish. No mustard, are you?152601:45:00,199 --> 01:45:06,039Sometimes I don't need mustard. Sourcroutis good. And the potato salad America.152701:45:06,199 --> 01:45:13,520First day tomorrow absolutely yeah, theday after we have a half a152801:45:13,600 --> 01:45:15,960day we'll enjoy a half a dayof work tomorrow, with no work on152901:45:15,000 --> 01:45:17,399Tuesday, and then Wednesday we haveto come back to the grind tongue.153001:45:17,439 --> 01:45:20,479Anyway, we thank you for joiningus. We all want to be happy,153101:45:20,640 --> 01:45:25,399of course, and of course healthyis really up there on the list153201:45:25,399 --> 01:45:29,079of things. But what we wantto be here at Greenberg Financial is off153301:45:29,319 --> 01:45:35,319of all. Next week, threeo'clock, right on the nose. That153401:45:35,439 --> 01:45:40,640one we killed at three o'clock,right on the nose. Get out of153501:45:40,720 --> 01:45:50,439here, man, h m hmm. Don't forget me, Dylan, don't153601:45:50,439 --> 01:46:02,199forgive me for taking me back?Are you you're reminded me? I could?153701:46:02,199 --> 01:46:04,159I can't be getting right with thenap. Where you going? Now?153801:46:04,199 --> 01:46:06,479You're good? I gotta do it, let's go. I can't want153901:46:06,560 --> 01:46:11,079to do it. It doesn't matter. I love I lived two seconds from154001:46:11,079 --> 01:46:14,439there. I'm going either if we'reboth going that one. No, damn,154101:46:14,439 --> 01:46:15,840I live two seconds. I doI think that. I think it.154201:46:15,960 --> 01:46:18,319Dylan can take you because you liveright there. Yeah, we know154301:46:18,359 --> 01:46:26,399when you're ready. Um, areyou wanting to the right way? Yeah?154401:46:27,079 --> 01:46:45,760I let's do it. Shout allright, Yeah, I'm trying to154501:46:45,800 --> 01:47:12,560sold meet you Tonstadt had just suck. H m hm m m m m154601:47:15,680 --> 01:47:30,039m thank you, m m hm. What you did leaving? Are you154701:47:30,079 --> 01:47:33,680gonna do? We're the market?All right, well I'm gonna start petting154801:47:33,720 --> 01:47:39,239that. But so I just kyou, yeah, I guys, thank154901:47:39,920 --> 01:47:51,039yeah. Also I'm gonna stop.You can get up some cash for short155001:47:51,119 --> 01:47:57,880cloth. We end up your line. Are you guys off for me?155101:47:59,319 --> 01:48:04,680What you go to that? Allright? There you go, y'all.155201:48:04,800 --> 01:48:15,680I'll go up there, Chase,I'll be on board off. H m155301:48:15,920 --> 01:48:29,600hmm. Well yeah, it's notrighting any others probably h y weekend.155401:48:30,439 --> 01:50:17,720Yeah, yeah, what's up?One? M m sweet mark game In155501:50:17,760 --> 01:50:25,199the first half of the year.First, ESPN just got rid of David155601:50:25,239 --> 01:50:29,640Pollack, who's a game Day Paulishgame day guy, the huge ere for155701:50:29,800 --> 01:50:32,880years. He's a Florida standout Armyto Georgia, big Georgia player. We're155801:50:32,920 --> 01:50:36,319talking about that earlier they got ridof. You're telling me. They go,155901:50:36,520 --> 01:50:41,079oh, no, you were tellingme that Matthew was stan Van Gundy.156001:50:41,119 --> 01:50:44,920So they fired stan Van Gundy.Oh he sucks, And now they156101:50:44,960 --> 01:50:47,600just fired Pulling. Yeah, butthere's some big names they must not like156201:50:47,680 --> 01:51:00,239Polo either don't because I think theygot Pat mccafee. How did that is?156301:51:12,800 --> 01:51:15,279Hello everyone, My name is ToddlickJr. And this is your weekly156401:51:15,319 --> 01:51:17,600market update, brought to you bythe Greenberg Financial Group. Today mark the156501:51:17,720 --> 01:51:20,119end of the first half of thetrading year, and it was a good156601:51:20,159 --> 01:51:25,319one for all of the indexes allaround. The SMP five hundred year to156701:51:25,439 --> 01:51:29,520day is up fifteen percent and theNASDAK is up about thirty one percent.156801:51:29,920 --> 01:51:33,319That is the best first half returnfrom the NASDAK in its history as an156901:51:33,359 --> 01:51:38,760index. Also, furthermore, Istudy found that since nineteen forty five,157001:51:38,840 --> 01:51:42,479when the SMP five hundred has earneda positive return in the first half of157101:51:42,520 --> 01:51:45,199the year, the following second halfof the year is on average of return157201:51:45,279 --> 01:51:49,319of around five percent. Also,when the return of the first half of157301:51:49,359 --> 01:51:53,600the year is more than ten percent, like it is this year, the157401:51:53,720 --> 01:51:58,000average return in the second half iseight percent. So if history repeats itself,157501:51:58,039 --> 01:52:00,640we should have a good second halfof the year. But market pay157601:52:00,720 --> 01:52:03,880says history does not repeat itself atrhymes, so we'll still have to see157701:52:04,319 --> 01:52:09,039what happens in the second half.We did have some economic news this week.157801:52:09,159 --> 01:52:13,079New home sales for the month ofMay came in above expectations. Also,157901:52:13,159 --> 01:52:16,239pending home sales for the month ofMay came in above expectations. We158001:52:16,359 --> 01:52:20,479got our revision on the quarter oneGDP print on Thursday, which sent the158101:52:20,560 --> 01:52:25,119markets higher and went from one pointthree percent to two percent, which is158201:52:25,159 --> 01:52:28,800a huge jump, showing that themarket, well, sorry, the economy158301:52:28,880 --> 01:52:32,119did a lot better in quarter toone than originally thought. This, of158401:52:32,199 --> 01:52:35,560course gives credence to the fact thatwe probably should have two more rate hikes,158501:52:35,760 --> 01:52:40,319as Jerome Powell does not want tosee the market taking off two hot158601:52:40,720 --> 01:52:45,119because that would increase inflation down theroad. Obviously, his mandate right now158701:52:45,239 --> 01:52:49,760is to lower inflation, and hewill succeed, and as he said multiple158801:52:49,840 --> 01:52:54,199times, there's probably going to betwo more rate cuts until the end of158901:52:54,239 --> 01:52:58,359the year. Lastly, on Friday, we got the pc report, that's159001:52:58,399 --> 01:53:03,039the personal consumption Expenditure report, it'sactually the inflation report that the Fed Reserve159101:53:03,239 --> 01:53:09,520uses for their economic decisions. Thatcame in but low expectations, showing that159201:53:09,600 --> 01:53:15,760inflation is continuously slowing, and that'sgood news for inflation the inflation fight.159301:53:15,319 --> 01:53:19,199So far. Now, we hada great week in the markets. Here's159401:53:19,239 --> 01:53:23,760some performances. The Dow was uptwo percent, the S and P was159501:53:23,880 --> 01:53:28,079up two point four and the NASDACwas up two point two percent. US159601:53:28,119 --> 01:53:30,960oil also had enough week. Theywere up at a point three percent to159701:53:30,039 --> 01:53:33,840seventy dollars in barrel, and goldwas flat at nineteen twenty announced. The159801:53:33,920 --> 01:53:38,640ten year US interest rate also didincrease. It's now at three point eight159901:53:38,760 --> 01:53:42,439four percent. And something to noteis the ten year two year inversion has160001:53:42,520 --> 01:53:45,279continued to increase. It is nowabove one percent, which is one of160101:53:45,319 --> 01:53:49,359the largest inversions we've ever seen inthe history of a yield curve. Now160201:53:49,439 --> 01:53:54,079here's some look at some popular stocksin the performances this week. Apple had160301:53:54,119 --> 01:53:57,159a real thrilling week. They wereup three point nine percent two hundred ninety160401:53:57,159 --> 01:54:00,880four dollars per share, and Netflixwas up three point nine percent to four160501:54:01,239 --> 01:54:05,000forty dollars per share. And Teslahad another up week of two percent to160601:54:05,039 --> 01:54:10,000two hundred and sixty one dollars pershare. Last week, bitcoint had a160701:54:10,079 --> 01:54:14,000flat week after a real doozy ofa week to week fall a week before.160801:54:14,079 --> 01:54:17,720It was a fifteen percent This week, no real price movement action it's160901:54:17,760 --> 01:54:21,000now trading at thirty thousand, fourhundred and sixty five dollars. If you161001:54:21,079 --> 01:54:24,600have any requests for stock up dates, please will for the email me atat161101:54:24,600 --> 01:54:28,119at Greenberg financial dot com and thishas been your weekly market up date,161201:54:28,199 --> 01:54:30,960brought to you by the Greenberg FinancialGroup. We hope you'll stay happy,161301:54:30,079 --> 01:54:31,279healthy, and profitable.