Inflation is Slowing - Will Interest Rates Drop?

100:00:02,399 --> 00:00:07,839Good morning, everybody. I'm back. It's Sunday morning. It's money matters200:00:08,160 --> 00:00:12,960right here at seven ninety am.Okay, and it's two This is gonna300:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,320We're gonna bring you this for twohours. We've got a lot to talk400:00:15,359 --> 00:00:19,039about. We got a lot totalk about. The markets have been going500:00:19,399 --> 00:00:24,719up and up and up, andif you think that they're going to continue600:00:24,719 --> 00:00:30,079to go up, maybe they will, but I don't really see it.700:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,840And I know I've been saying that, and we're coming into that timeframe now800:00:33,880 --> 00:00:37,520of August, September, October,and the higher we've gone, we've let900:00:37,560 --> 00:00:41,359it stretch. I get a littlebit more nervous each time. We're gonna1000:00:41,359 --> 00:00:47,119talk about how you can protect yourselfright now where the markets are, unless1100:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,799you believe we're going up to newHives, which if you are, give1200:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,719me a phone call and tell mewhy. Because at the end of the1300:00:53,799 --> 00:00:58,000day, I don't see the liquiditythere to do it. I don't see1400:00:58,039 --> 00:01:03,200the valuations to be able to doit, and I don't see the institutions1500:01:03,519 --> 00:01:07,640wanting to do it. So withthat said, how are we going to1600:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,640get it up there? It's gotto be more than seven stocks that I1700:01:10,640 --> 00:01:12,159can tell you all right, thisis the money amount of show that is1800:01:12,159 --> 00:01:18,040brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group. Greenberg Financial Group is both a registered1900:01:18,079 --> 00:01:21,200and an investment advisory and they brokea dealer or registered with the SEC.2000:01:21,879 --> 00:01:25,920Members of FINER and members of SIPPIC. On the show, we talk about2100:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,879different products, different strategies and differentideas. We all have our own opinions.2200:01:30,239 --> 00:01:34,000Every one of those carry some typeof risk. We highly suggest you2300:01:34,120 --> 00:01:40,480understand those risks prior to investing.Risk is there all the time. Sometimes2400:01:40,480 --> 00:01:45,879you've got greater risk then you havereward. Sometimes the risk is less and2500:01:45,959 --> 00:01:49,000reward is greater. Right now,I think the risk is greater, especially2600:01:49,000 --> 00:01:53,680with the FED talking about raising interestrates again. The markets were up this2700:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,280week two percent on the Dow,two and a half percent on the SMP.2800:01:57,799 --> 00:02:04,120Now's that three percent, and theequal weighted was up two point four2900:02:04,159 --> 00:02:07,120so the same thing as the SMP. You're seeing the money spread out a3000:02:07,159 --> 00:02:10,639little bit, but that's just onthe year to the week and month.3100:02:12,000 --> 00:02:16,759The year to day, the equalweighted equal weighted SMP five hundred is still3200:02:16,800 --> 00:02:27,319ten percent lower than the regular SMPfive hundred, and it's twenty eight percent3300:02:27,400 --> 00:02:31,280lower than the navstack. So whatdoes it really tell you? And the3400:02:31,400 --> 00:02:36,560Dow is only up four percent forthe year, well, the smps up3500:02:36,599 --> 00:02:39,319seventeen, the nastacks up thirty four, and the equal weighted is only up3600:02:39,360 --> 00:02:43,840seven What does that tell you?That tells you lately that the other stocks,3700:02:43,879 --> 00:02:47,520the broadest stocks are start equal outin the SMP. But but those3800:02:47,560 --> 00:02:53,240seven eight stocks that drove this SMPand in all obviously not in the DAW,3900:02:54,439 --> 00:02:59,000but they are in the NASDAC,and there's gonna be a little change4000:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,840over with that as they go through. The SMP is looking how to change4100:03:01,840 --> 00:03:07,039the equal weighting a little bit becausethey don't want your seven stocks driving the4200:03:07,080 --> 00:03:14,159market. It doesn't make sense,and it makes valuations very very high.4300:03:14,319 --> 00:03:20,520I understand artificial intelligence. I understandall the new things that are coming out4400:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,599with technology. I understand the video, I understand Tesla, I understand Microsoft4500:03:24,639 --> 00:03:30,439and all these and then obviously theMicrosoft Active Vision deal it was at least4600:03:30,479 --> 00:03:34,599pushed back to look for more evidenceto allow it to happen. There's good4700:03:34,639 --> 00:03:39,240things on the horizon, but thevaluations are so high, and maybe that4800:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,840doesn't mean anything to you. Itmeans something to me. I know,4900:03:42,879 --> 00:03:46,080on a short term basis, there'snothing worse than feeling like you're being left5000:03:46,080 --> 00:03:51,479behind. But we remember the typeof investor you are. Are you a5100:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,080conservative investor? You are balanced investor? You all you know to the wall5200:03:55,319 --> 00:04:02,080type of investor aggressive as anything.Most of you are not very few people5300:04:02,120 --> 00:04:06,199aggressive. Sure, and your littletrading accounts that you have, when you5400:04:06,280 --> 00:04:10,639do it and you buy the amazonsand the apples in the microsauce, sure5500:04:10,680 --> 00:04:15,639they're gonna be great. They're gonnaoutperform. But an overall portfolio has those5600:04:15,680 --> 00:04:20,480in there as a percentage, smallpercentage, not twenty five percent or even5700:04:20,519 --> 00:04:27,000fifteen percent usually of your account.A balanced portfolio is fixed income in it5800:04:27,040 --> 00:04:31,399has growth stocks in it has valuestocks in its, high yield stocks in5900:04:31,439 --> 00:04:35,279it. They have a whole bunchof different things in it, and it6000:04:35,319 --> 00:04:43,399balances out. And that's why theSMP is up seventeen, but the equal6100:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,759right it is up only seven becauseit's across the board. And that's how6200:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,040you have to look at your portfolios. A balance account has income, Well,6300:04:51,079 --> 00:04:56,160we finally can get some income.You can finally get four five percent6400:04:56,319 --> 00:05:03,680in good quality income. Then youdon't have to stretch risk and you were6500:05:03,720 --> 00:05:09,600able to go ahead and balance outyour account because eventually, here what income6600:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,439does for you with the markets drop, the income keeps into coming into the6700:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,319portfolio to all set the market drop. We still haven't had that. Why6800:05:16,439 --> 00:05:20,639am I soul concerned and cautious?Still, Well, let's face it,6900:05:20,720 --> 00:05:25,800guys. You hear about the valuations, so I don't have to go over7000:05:25,879 --> 00:05:29,879that again. But one of thethings I've been watching is the balance sheet7100:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,079of the Federal Reserve, and theykeep reducing it and reducing and reducing it,7200:05:33,160 --> 00:05:38,680which means they're selling off their assets. We were at the same level7300:05:38,759 --> 00:05:44,160we were at twenty nineteen when wehad a mini run on the Federal Reserve,7400:05:44,639 --> 00:05:46,759and that was for a day ortwo and they were able to go7500:05:46,800 --> 00:05:53,000ahead and rectify that. But themarkets drop really fast. Then we had7600:05:53,040 --> 00:05:58,199twenty twenty and the stability was notthere. When we first came out about7700:05:58,199 --> 00:06:02,519the pandemic burn, the markets fell, but then they came rolling back because7800:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,720the FED did the changes they neededto. The FED is not easing right7900:06:06,759 --> 00:06:12,959now, they are tightening. Theyare raising rates in the face of recession,8000:06:13,959 --> 00:06:18,040of possibility and the raising rates withthe idea that inflation is coming down.8100:06:18,079 --> 00:06:21,720They're not giving it time. Theyare combating it every single month.8200:06:21,759 --> 00:06:25,839We had one pause. That's whatthe markets like. That's why the markets8300:06:25,839 --> 00:06:30,519are higher. We saw good CPInumbers and that's what happened. Right,8400:06:30,879 --> 00:06:35,000So now where are we. We'reat forty five hundred on the SMP five8500:06:35,120 --> 00:06:40,839hundred, at thirty nine hundred.The markets were overvalued at forty five hundred,8600:06:40,920 --> 00:06:45,439you gotta believe it definitely overvalued.That doesn't mean it can't go higher.8700:06:45,680 --> 00:06:47,639So you have to invest with theidea that you're gonna make money if8800:06:47,680 --> 00:06:53,360it goes higher, but you justwon't make as much and you can't be8900:06:53,439 --> 00:06:57,600upset about that. If you area conservative, balanced type of portfolio,9000:06:57,639 --> 00:07:04,160which ninety ninety five percent portfolios shouldbe an awe. And what happens is9100:07:04,600 --> 00:07:10,079you still have you separate it out. Look at what your what your growth9200:07:10,079 --> 00:07:14,120portfolio has done, and then lookat your fixed income. Separate it out.9300:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,839Is your growth portfolio actually grown asyour growth stocks up like the NASDAC9400:07:17,920 --> 00:07:24,199in the SMP, they should befor the most part. Let's face it,9500:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,879the video has gone ridiculously high.It was one hundred and twenty no9600:07:27,920 --> 00:07:32,600one wanted, and it's four hundredand eighty now and everybody wants it.9700:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,879It's gonna take time with them chipsdoing. I think it's another couple of9800:07:35,959 --> 00:07:39,800quarters, all right, and itcan probably get the five five fifty,9900:07:39,839 --> 00:07:43,240and then you gotta be careful.Well, you should be careful here now10000:07:43,279 --> 00:07:46,879anyway, because the idea is youtake some of your winnings off. It10100:07:46,959 --> 00:07:50,160is too big of a position andgets what happened when it goes down,10200:07:50,959 --> 00:07:55,279It brings your whole portfolio down.So the idea is, how do you10300:07:55,279 --> 00:07:59,839protect yourself. Well, you compareback your positions that are way too high10400:08:00,079 --> 00:08:03,759right now. That doesn't mean yousell it the whole position. But if10500:08:03,800 --> 00:08:05,240you had two hundred chairs in thevideo, maybe you go down to one10600:08:05,439 --> 00:08:09,720fifty. If you had two hundredchairs and Microsoft, maybe you go down10700:08:09,759 --> 00:08:13,000to one fifty or one hundred Apple, same thing. You just take off10800:08:13,079 --> 00:08:16,000some money from the big positions thathave run up. The other positions haven't10900:08:16,079 --> 00:08:22,360run that much. You reduce yourrisk exposure to the ones that have done11000:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,360the most. And guess what.Put it in the money market fund,11100:08:24,839 --> 00:08:28,399put in government buns earn five percent, four and a half percent whatever they're11200:08:28,399 --> 00:08:33,159paying right now, that will benefityou. And now with those stocks pulled11300:08:33,159 --> 00:08:39,960back ten percent to so go backin and those shares to it. That's11400:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,600how you make money over time onstocks that are rising. They all have11500:08:43,639 --> 00:08:48,440pullbacks at some time. Remember thatthe markets do not have the liquidity with11600:08:48,639 --> 00:08:54,679the Federal Reserve tightening right now.I am concerned August, September, October,11700:08:54,919 --> 00:08:58,399which are the bad months of theyear, that if any little thing11800:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,159happens, we can still see itpretty big sell off pretty quickly. I'm11900:09:01,200 --> 00:09:05,240not saying twenty thirty. I'm sayinga good you know, five ten percent.12000:09:05,919 --> 00:09:09,080It could happen. We could goright back down to thirty nine and12100:09:09,240 --> 00:09:15,440more, depending on why it's happening. I still think eventually it will work12200:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,759its way down, whether it's laterthis year or next year. But just12300:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,159because I think that doesn't mean I'mnot going to make money as the markets12400:09:22,159 --> 00:09:26,320are going higher. You can hedgeyour accounts by buying some of the inverse12500:09:26,360 --> 00:09:31,000funds, which go down as themarket goes up, but you're making money12600:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,840on everything else. You can buymoney, but you can put up some12700:09:33,879 --> 00:09:37,600money and buy put options that goout six months a year. If the12800:09:37,639 --> 00:09:43,039markets fold, those go up invalue exponentially. But if the markets go12900:09:43,159 --> 00:09:45,879up, they lose value and youlose the money. But you know what13000:09:45,960 --> 00:09:50,840your risk is in doing it.These are way to mitigate risk while still13100:09:50,919 --> 00:09:54,759making money while the markets are goinghigher. You also know that things that13200:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,600go up eventually come down at sometime. We just don't know when,13300:09:58,639 --> 00:10:01,559how or when they do it.But they've over expanded. To think about13400:10:01,559 --> 00:10:07,399a rubber band that justice has expandedso much, and now eventually when it13500:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,279stops back, it goes the otherway. No different when the markets went13600:10:11,360 --> 00:10:16,039down more than they should. Ireally hope there is no problems coming up.13700:10:16,080 --> 00:10:20,399If we keep raising interest rates,you're going to have a banking problem.13800:10:20,240 --> 00:10:26,399I keep listening to Jamie Diamond,who is one of the premier CEOs13900:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,360of one of the best banks inthe world, JP Morgan, and he14000:10:30,399 --> 00:10:33,480continues to tell us as banking crisisis not over, there's going to be14100:10:33,559 --> 00:10:37,120a problem. And I don't thinkhe's talking about the big banks. I14200:10:37,120 --> 00:10:41,840think he's talking about the regional banks, because as interest rates continue to go14300:10:41,919 --> 00:10:45,720up, it's going to be aproblem. As we continue continue to see14400:10:45,759 --> 00:10:50,960what's happening in the country with peoplewanting to stay at home and commercial office14500:10:50,960 --> 00:10:56,879space being reduced because they don't needas much. The real estate market is14600:10:56,919 --> 00:11:01,799going to get hurt. On thecommercial side. I understand the retail side14700:11:01,879 --> 00:11:05,440is doing well, it's all aboutinventory. Well, if it's about inventory14800:11:05,480 --> 00:11:09,559there and then we have a glutof commercial space or the commercial markets will14900:11:09,559 --> 00:11:15,720get hit. Does it mean theretail law you know, the grocery stores15000:11:15,759 --> 00:11:20,480and stuff, the retail shopping mallsbecause people still have to go and get15100:11:20,519 --> 00:11:24,080what they need. But you couldsee that with big businesses and the biggest15200:11:24,120 --> 00:11:28,320cities and all when people are reducingbecause let's face it, they can keep15300:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,360telling people to come back to work, but they don't come back to work15400:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,799all right. They want to havea three day work week, So you15500:11:35,840 --> 00:11:37,320know, they don't mean as muchspace. They're gonna be having shared space.15600:11:37,720 --> 00:11:41,200There's a there's a change going onwhich we know, and companies are15700:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,120gonna have to deal with it.And you know, as much as the15800:11:45,159 --> 00:11:48,960pendulum has swung all the way tothe left, it's coming back a little15900:11:48,960 --> 00:11:52,799bit and eventually we'll get in themiddle and kind of come to a compromise16000:11:52,840 --> 00:12:00,120on how we do all this.But be careful, be cautious. I16100:12:00,159 --> 00:12:03,960don't care if the markets keep goingup. Right now the overvalued in my16200:12:03,080 --> 00:12:09,039opinion, and they're also the Thatdoesn't mean I'm selling everything I'm holding,16300:12:09,759 --> 00:12:11,799but I'm looking how to mitigate risk. If you don't know how to mitigate16400:12:11,879 --> 00:12:16,440risk, if and you're too nervous, call us. That's all. It's16500:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,039that easy. We'll go over it, will review your portfolio, will do16600:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,000the plan for you, would doall that stuff, and if that works16700:12:22,000 --> 00:12:28,240for you, great, But justsitting there saying, ah, the markets16800:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,120were down and everyone was worried aboutit and just went up. Right,16900:12:31,159 --> 00:12:35,039But now's the time. This isno different than a year ago when we17000:12:35,039 --> 00:12:39,279were telling people at forty seven fortyeight hundred, you know what, we17100:12:39,360 --> 00:12:41,360think the markets got some trouble andit kept going higher, and then all17200:12:41,399 --> 00:12:46,240of a sudden, next thing,you know, we're down thirty percent almost,17300:12:46,919 --> 00:12:50,720And then everyone got scared and thenthey wanted to sell, and everyone17400:12:50,759 --> 00:12:52,840told them to stay there. Andyou still don't do that. When the17500:12:52,879 --> 00:12:56,440markets sell, you should have goneahead and sold some of the stuff and17600:12:56,639 --> 00:13:00,799piled it back in to all thegood companies. And if you don't have17700:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,039two or three of those or fourcompanies, or you don't have the ETFs17800:13:03,039 --> 00:13:09,240which with all these tech companies,then you're missed out. And it doesn't17900:13:09,240 --> 00:13:13,000mean you chase. We're not institutionsthat have a whole bunch of money that18000:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,519always come in. And if youbuy the video at four eighty and it18100:13:16,559 --> 00:13:20,759goes to three fifty, or theycan buy more now, they keep their18200:13:20,759 --> 00:13:26,120add their positions where they need to, they add to them. After they18300:13:26,159 --> 00:13:28,120take off, they come back down. It all depends on how much they18400:13:28,120 --> 00:13:35,320want to need stock. And ineach area, the markets at a time18500:13:35,919 --> 00:13:37,840sometimes risk reward. I think therisk is greater than the reward. Right18600:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,960now, we go down, andwe fall down August, September, October18700:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,000to a point that I'll tell youthe reward is greater than the risk,18800:13:46,039 --> 00:13:48,080and we'll get back in. Andif it's not this year, it's going18900:13:48,159 --> 00:13:50,879to be next year. Something's gonnahappen. Don't know how, don't know19000:13:50,919 --> 00:13:54,399where. And if I'm wrong,I'm still gonna make money. Learn how19100:13:54,440 --> 00:13:58,919to mitigate risk and make money.Even if you think the markets are going19200:13:58,919 --> 00:14:01,440down in your cautious. If yousell everything and get out of everything,19300:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,080how are you going to get backin? You have to be one hundred19400:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,879percent right. I don't want tohave to be in that position. I'd19500:14:07,879 --> 00:14:11,480be one hundred percent right. ButI don't want to be stupid and just19600:14:11,519 --> 00:14:13,399be so bullish and thinking we're goingto the moon. We're not going to19700:14:13,440 --> 00:14:18,559the moon. Okay, so keepthat in mind as we go through.19800:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,279All right, I want to seethe switch subjects. Obviously a lot of19900:14:22,279 --> 00:14:24,399you know, I've been gone fora while. Um did some We have20000:14:24,559 --> 00:14:28,080some business I had to do overin Ireland. And once we were there,20100:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,080I told my wife, listen,we're gonna spend some time over here.20200:14:31,120 --> 00:14:35,759We're gonna go some places and checkthem out and and uh and and20300:14:35,799 --> 00:14:39,519go and get to know some peopleand do some things and and and just20400:14:39,679 --> 00:14:43,720like enjoy the enjoy the trip.It's a long trip over Anyone that fly20500:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,799goes to Europe I has to dothat understands that there's no way I'm going20600:14:46,879 --> 00:14:50,440up there and coming back for aweek. It's just too much. So20700:14:50,600 --> 00:14:56,120we decided to spend some time moretime in Ireland, Portugal and then Paris.20800:14:56,879 --> 00:15:01,759I am going to tell you unequivably. And I don't know it's because20900:15:01,799 --> 00:15:07,279of since the pandemic or not,but the world is friendlier. The people21000:15:07,720 --> 00:15:15,480are friendlier, They are commendating totaurists. Didn't see a lot of Americans21100:15:15,519 --> 00:15:20,360until we really got to Paris,but most of the other places we were21200:15:20,399 --> 00:15:24,559in they were very accommodating to everybody. They went out of their way,21300:15:24,600 --> 00:15:28,600they were polite, they wanted toservice you. They wanted to do the21400:15:28,679 --> 00:15:33,159things that you expect when you're onvacation or doing things or on a trip.21500:15:33,519 --> 00:15:37,639And the way I like to gois not like a tourist. I'm21600:15:37,639 --> 00:15:41,039not a tourist. I don't haveto see every little thing everywhere. I21700:15:41,159 --> 00:15:45,399like to be a traveler. Ilike to get to feel for the people,21800:15:45,559 --> 00:15:48,000the area on that in, what'sgoing on, what's the history of21900:15:48,039 --> 00:15:52,159it, you know, and talkto people, and you know, talking22000:15:52,159 --> 00:15:54,600to people in Ireland, talking topeople in Portugal, talking to people in22100:15:54,600 --> 00:16:00,480Paris. Guess what, we're prettymuch all on the same page. They're22200:16:00,519 --> 00:16:06,320all socialistic countries, right, butwe all have something in common. We22300:16:06,399 --> 00:16:08,840don't like people that don't want towork. We don't like the government.22400:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,039We do not trust the government.Nobody I spoke to when I want to22500:16:12,080 --> 00:16:17,679spoke to one hundred and fifty peopletrust any of their governments. Paris,22600:16:17,919 --> 00:16:23,679Portugal Island. Everyone complains, howare these governments in control if the people22700:16:23,720 --> 00:16:30,919don't trust them? It's crazy.Another thing is nobody likes his woke stuff22800:16:30,960 --> 00:16:38,120going on. Nobody. They don'tlike the transgender stuff being thrown down their22900:16:38,639 --> 00:16:45,080down their throats. People are tolerableif everything goes on, they're open to23000:16:45,159 --> 00:16:48,360it, no judgment, but theyjust feel it's being pounded on them and23100:16:48,399 --> 00:16:52,600they're not allowed to make their ownways. And I wasn't just talking to23200:16:52,639 --> 00:16:56,399conservative people, okay, because asyou know, in some of these places23300:16:56,440 --> 00:17:00,799they got three parties and and allat the end of the day. At23400:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,759the end of the day, everybodywants to be able to make their own23500:17:03,799 --> 00:17:10,759decisions. They don't want the governmentmaking decisions for them. They don't want23600:17:10,799 --> 00:17:12,799to go ahead and be giving stuffto people that don't want to work.23700:17:12,960 --> 00:17:18,240They think, we're out of ourminds. What Biden's doing on how he's23800:17:18,279 --> 00:17:25,400leaving people come across the border.Nobody's doing that. Think about the riots23900:17:25,400 --> 00:17:30,359that they had in Paris, Okay, and compare those riots and anksful with24000:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,640talking to people about this that wehad in Seattle a few years ago.24100:17:36,319 --> 00:17:40,759Seattle, what do they do?Some are love, burn the police,24200:17:41,039 --> 00:17:45,359burn the cause, take over thecity. Boom boom boom, And we24300:17:45,519 --> 00:17:52,680let them and they were applauded andnobody went to jail. Paris go ahead24400:17:52,680 --> 00:18:00,400and protests under the same circumstances ofa policeman killing a black person a nature24500:18:00,000 --> 00:18:06,519which just to not just it's notright. Okay, we don't know the24600:18:06,599 --> 00:18:11,160details, but the bottom line isthere were riots all around in France.24700:18:11,519 --> 00:18:17,200Lasted three days. They locked upover two thousand people. They shut it24800:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,200down, and by the time wegot there, nobody even talked about it24900:18:19,240 --> 00:18:25,279was and nobody feared anything. Youdidn't have signs going up all over the25000:18:25,279 --> 00:18:30,440place, you didn't have people riotingin the streets, you didn't have BLM25100:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,759posted all over in the streets.You didn't have everybody going ahead and going25200:18:33,799 --> 00:18:38,359and doing the things that we allowedto happen in our country. And they're25300:18:38,400 --> 00:18:53,839a socialist border communist. We allowthese people in our country to criminalize our25400:18:53,839 --> 00:18:59,200country without doing anything. They donot let that happen in those countries,25500:18:59,759 --> 00:19:04,160you break the law, you're goingto jail. In our countries, you25600:19:04,240 --> 00:19:10,680break the law, you're getting outbecause they call racism. It's ridiculous.25700:19:11,000 --> 00:19:18,400Our thoughts are worse than socialistic countries. That is the impression that I got25800:19:18,640 --> 00:19:25,960in talking and speaking with all thesepeople. We need to wake up,25900:19:26,079 --> 00:19:30,039We need to think about what's goingon in our country. We need to26000:19:30,039 --> 00:19:37,079start fighting back and making people realizewe're we're going it's because we think everyone's26100:19:37,119 --> 00:19:44,039like this to not And then theother side is most people agree in France,26200:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,839okay, that they have to raisethe social security age because they're giving26300:19:48,839 --> 00:19:52,599away everything and they're not going torun out of money. But the few26400:19:52,720 --> 00:20:00,039people on the left that love theriot want to riot about that. We26500:20:00,160 --> 00:20:04,480all do in the same situation.We just understand a little bit better about26600:20:04,599 --> 00:20:07,759the economy and that we need todo that even though they we're not happy.26700:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,240But no one's doing anything about itin the world to fix things.26800:20:12,799 --> 00:20:21,200Nobody is fixing things now. Someof you know, because I know the26900:20:21,200 --> 00:20:26,079guys he had talked about it.I got hurt the first week and I27000:20:26,119 --> 00:20:32,319was in the hospital for a nightin Ireland Public Hospital, and I am27100:20:32,359 --> 00:20:37,640telling you. From the time theygot me from the hotel and put me27200:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,759in the ambulance till we got tothe hospital, they could not be nicer,27300:20:44,079 --> 00:20:48,480couldn't be nicer. Now I don'tknow, it's of course they liked27400:20:48,559 --> 00:20:55,599us, and the e MT knewsome people to hospital or whatever, but27500:20:55,680 --> 00:21:00,960it was it was not a badexperience other than the fact nothing can get27600:21:00,000 --> 00:21:07,559done. Everybody's overworked, not enoughpeople on staff. There's where the problem27700:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,759is. We don't want to fixthe problems that we need. We don't27800:21:10,799 --> 00:21:12,759want to put the money to wherewe need to. We want to give27900:21:12,799 --> 00:21:17,359it away. They need to hiremore people just over there with us,28000:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,839the public hospital, the public things. You're limited. It takes time to28100:21:21,880 --> 00:21:27,799do everything. Every single hallway hadseven to ten of us on beds in28200:21:27,920 --> 00:21:34,039the hallway. Luckily, by threeo'clock in the morning they got me a28300:21:34,039 --> 00:21:41,640private room. Then the doctors camein, X rays, CT scan all28400:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,759the stuff I needed. And atthe end of the day they could not28500:21:45,880 --> 00:21:51,559be nicer except anyone that knows whenyou blow out a knee and it's swelling28600:21:51,640 --> 00:21:56,319up, you need ice and youneed to elevate it. No, I28700:21:56,359 --> 00:22:00,519had to keep yelling, not yellinggetting the nurses attention. When I was28800:22:00,559 --> 00:22:03,480in the hallway to get me someice. One time they got me ice.28900:22:04,599 --> 00:22:07,160They didn't give me anything to putunder my leg to elevate it.29000:22:07,279 --> 00:22:11,519Those are two simple things, Iknow. They kept saying, I'm sorry,29100:22:11,599 --> 00:22:14,960we're understaffed. I gotta deal withthis. I said, I get29200:22:15,039 --> 00:22:18,000it, no problem. Please justget me some ice, or get me29300:22:18,079 --> 00:22:21,839pain pills. Okay, get mesomething. Because I was in a lot29400:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,319of pain that night. I couldn'tmove. I thought I broke my hip.29500:22:26,519 --> 00:22:29,720My back was hurt and at myknee. They said, I told29600:22:29,720 --> 00:22:30,880my acl or something. I don'tknow yet. I just got home.29700:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,559I got to check it out nextweek. But at the end of the29800:22:34,640 --> 00:22:40,200day, it was a pretty goodoverall experience. They went out of the29900:22:40,319 --> 00:22:45,720way to take my wife from thehospital back to the hotel. They brought30000:22:45,720 --> 00:22:51,039her back twice over over the nexttwenty four hours. Back and forth.30100:22:52,559 --> 00:23:00,079People cared. They cad, thatwas the great part. In our country,30200:23:00,079 --> 00:23:03,920we complain, we see healthcare.Listen, we gotta fix it.30300:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,240Not just here in the world.They have a two tier system. They30400:23:07,279 --> 00:23:11,240have a private hospital. Private hospitalclosed when I was there, I would30500:23:11,240 --> 00:23:15,440have had to go the next dayand all this stuff. They would not30600:23:15,759 --> 00:23:19,519Anything that's an emergency, they willdo for you in the in the hospital,30700:23:21,160 --> 00:23:22,640but if it's not an emergency,they will not do it if you're30800:23:22,640 --> 00:23:27,480a foreigner. In a couple ofweeks, these doctors that I met,30900:23:29,039 --> 00:23:32,200they want to come on a show. I want to talk to them about31000:23:32,319 --> 00:23:36,599national lines, medicine and all thatstuff. They're not for it, even31100:23:36,599 --> 00:23:40,640though that's what they have, andthey're gonna give you the explanations. It's31200:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,359going to be a pretty cool thing. So in a couple of weeks I'll31300:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,400advertise it, let you no onethey're coming on. But these guys were31400:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,839great, and because I weren't eventhe doctors that were working on me,31500:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,920these were guys I met later onthat we're able to explain to me the31600:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,319system and what's they're going on andall, and we're going to talk about31700:23:56,319 --> 00:24:00,799how insurance works over there and notworks, and they're gonna take care of31800:24:00,799 --> 00:24:03,880you the how of what. Andthen they I guess, I don't know31900:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,839somehow I didn't give them any information. I don't know if anybody else did.32000:24:07,079 --> 00:24:08,759And then they sent me a billso an overnight in the hospital,32100:24:10,119 --> 00:24:15,039CT scans, X ray twice,all that stuff, private room. I32200:24:15,039 --> 00:24:18,279think it's going to cost me aboutnine hundred dollars. Pretty done good,32300:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,440I would say, compared to whatwe have. All Right, we got32400:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,720a lot to talk about markets,everything else, planning. We'll be right32500:24:23,759 --> 00:24:34,880back. Thanks for listening to themoneymount of show. Welcome back, everybody.32600:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,240It's the money amounted show right hereSunday morning, KNST. We got32700:24:38,319 --> 00:24:44,480Dave, Dylan, Todd and myselfDean finally back to bring you everything we32800:24:44,599 --> 00:24:47,720know about what's going on. AndI'm sure everyone loves to hear that voice.32900:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,359Hear that INDs the end. We'reall back. I mean, my33000:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,279goodness, who thought what ever gonnahappen? All four of us? It's33100:24:52,319 --> 00:24:57,160first time? What seven weeks?Yeah, yea seven weeks, two months,33200:24:57,319 --> 00:25:00,519all four of us are back sevenweeks. I think the big headline33300:25:00,559 --> 00:25:06,039this week was CPI got a doubtup two tenths of a percent for the33400:25:06,079 --> 00:25:11,359month and year over a year,or three percent, which is a seventy33500:25:11,400 --> 00:25:17,480percent below where it was and atthe lowest level in two years. Yeah,33600:25:17,519 --> 00:25:21,240it's definitely coming down, So that'sgood. Yeah, it's coming down33700:25:21,279 --> 00:25:23,880now. The food prices were slowgaining and then declines, and vehicles and33800:25:23,920 --> 00:25:30,599airplane prices, the underlying economic newsis getting better compared to inflation. Yes,33900:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,039the problem we have is that yousee in the layoffs, I mean34000:25:34,079 --> 00:25:40,880Microsoft laid off, how many peoplesix thousand or some ten and more and34100:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,359more people are getting laid off.Companies are pulling back. You can see34200:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,359what's going on, and the FEDwants to rage rates again, it is34300:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,039interesting that that the Feds wanted toraise rates with inflation coming down, so34400:25:51,599 --> 00:25:53,880they must be seen something part ofits wage inflation. Have you seen the34500:25:53,880 --> 00:25:59,400CPI when you X out food andenergy. Yes, and that's still pretty34600:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,559elevated. That's still around five percent. So if you're thinking about that standpoint,34700:26:03,759 --> 00:26:07,720and the Fed has always said that'swhat they base their decisions on is34800:26:07,079 --> 00:26:11,920X food and energy, because theydon't their monetary policy does not impact those34900:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,720two sectors. That's a very validsector there. They think that they when35000:26:15,720 --> 00:26:21,119they raise interest rates are lower interestrates. That's the X food and energies35100:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,200what's really going to be impacted.So if they still see that elevated,35200:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,440maybe that's what they're thinking. Well, and housing is forty two percent of35300:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,440the CPI, and housings are notfalling at all, right, I mean,35400:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,640it's just stabilized. In fact,there was a report I read last35500:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,200week that in some of the Northeasterncities it is back to the all time35600:26:37,279 --> 00:26:40,880high in terms of the cost ofa home. I've got a breakdown of35700:26:40,920 --> 00:26:45,559the of the different components of theconsumer depression indecent on what really moved m35800:26:45,799 --> 00:26:51,839Gasoline down twenty seven percent, that'llmake a difference, yep, health insurance35900:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,799down twenty five percent. I thoughtthat was interesting. I've seen that.36000:26:55,119 --> 00:27:00,559Yeah, the pickleball people haven't either. So airline fairs down nineteen percent.36100:27:00,799 --> 00:27:04,720That come on, that's that's ridiculous. I have not seen any I know,36200:27:04,799 --> 00:27:08,640down nineteen that's ridiculous. Year downnine I've been seeing it. Yeah,36300:27:08,839 --> 00:27:11,799I mean year over year last yearthey were real high. Yes,36400:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,480so I think the high Alicia,No, they're not higher this year.36500:27:15,559 --> 00:27:22,000No, they're down nineteen percent.And the other big one was natural gas36600:27:22,079 --> 00:27:26,720down eighteen percent. Now, naturalgas and gasoline make makes sense. The36700:27:26,079 --> 00:27:29,920air farres, the health insurance,I'm kind of scratching my head, going36800:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,000gosh, really a car rental wasdown twelve percent. That was another big36900:27:33,079 --> 00:27:36,960dropper. Oh really yeah, becauseone day went to close to me almost37000:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,279four hundred dollars for a car.Wow. Yeah. Yeah, there's there's37100:27:40,279 --> 00:27:42,480a company out there that you canIt's kind of like the Airbnb of cars.37200:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,279It's not really in Tucson, butI forget what the name of it37300:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,640is. You can rent a carlike an Airbnb right day right most like37400:27:48,759 --> 00:27:52,599a lot of luxury cars. Youcan rent vans. But we talked about37500:27:52,640 --> 00:27:53,559that. Yeah, I remember thename of that time. No, because37600:27:53,559 --> 00:27:56,240Anthony came on the show and talkedabout man, yeah, yeah he did.37700:27:56,319 --> 00:27:59,759And then I actually looked at itwhen I was when I was looking37800:27:59,799 --> 00:28:03,839at and you can clearly rent nowyou can rent anything. Well, that's37900:28:03,880 --> 00:28:07,480the thing Anthony was on the showabout saying, who is in the insured38000:28:07,720 --> 00:28:12,079of that vehicle? Because the personyou're renting to isn't actually insured. The38100:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,640insurance company is ensuring you older.Right. And when I when I was38200:28:17,240 --> 00:28:21,680exploring the electric vehicle world, iwent on there to see if they had38300:28:21,720 --> 00:28:26,720electric you had Tesla's it's absolutely everythingin anything you want. Yeah, the38400:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,359company is Toro. Okay, that'sI was going to see to but I38500:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,960know that. Yeah, but that'sit's not like with a drop off though,38600:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,519you have to stay in the cityor wherever you're at someone's that they're38700:28:36,519 --> 00:28:37,400renting out to you. Yeah,that's what it is. Yeah, you38800:28:37,440 --> 00:28:42,240can't take it from Arizona to Florida. So if I drive someone's car and38900:28:42,319 --> 00:28:48,119supperson owns the car, is theinsured. You're the second insured who's driving39000:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,799it. However, if you wentfrom a rental company, it's your insurance,39100:28:52,119 --> 00:28:56,759right. Well, that's why theinsurance companies don't like this. They're39200:28:56,799 --> 00:29:00,640asking you to get a special policyand that's differ than the normal policy to39300:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,160allow you to rent out your vehicleto someone. Of course that's what they39400:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,480want. They want to to spendmore money on new insurance. Right.39500:29:06,599 --> 00:29:10,200We exported the big droppers. Howabout the big gainers in the inflation world?39600:29:10,319 --> 00:29:14,920Number one motor vehicle repair up twentypercent, and that makes sense.39700:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,519We had Anthony on the show lastweek talking about why insurance premiums are so39800:29:18,599 --> 00:29:21,319much higher than they were six monthsago, and he said a lot of39900:29:21,319 --> 00:29:23,480it's because of the costs of thevehicle. It's not as chief cost of40000:29:23,519 --> 00:29:26,839the parts the parts that yea,yeah, the inflation that has taken place40100:29:26,880 --> 00:29:33,559within the components they go into it. Frozen vegetables were number two. Don't40200:29:33,559 --> 00:29:37,960need a lot of frozen vegetables.I couldn't. A motor vehicle insurance number40300:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,880three, and those you know,one and three go together. Yeah,40400:29:41,039 --> 00:29:45,039motor vehicle insurance and the repairs candyand chewing gun was fourth. Oh that's40500:29:45,079 --> 00:29:48,240there you go. But I thinkthe gasoline down twenty seven percent. That's40600:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,599just love to see those numbers there. Big, that's the big. It's40700:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,799kind of interesting to see where itcomes from. You know, you get40800:29:56,839 --> 00:29:59,319the one number, you know,three percent, and you go, okay,40900:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,759but I'm feeling more pain than that, right, And it might be41000:30:03,759 --> 00:30:07,640because you are in some of theseareas that have are I've gotten more expensive.41100:30:07,119 --> 00:30:12,920Think about this though. Okay,last year twenty twenty two, stocks41200:30:14,000 --> 00:30:19,920dropped hard and bonds dropped hard becauseindustrates one up. Now this year industrates41300:30:21,839 --> 00:30:26,680we have we have high interest ratesand the markets still going higher. This41400:30:26,759 --> 00:30:30,599is this is the market is puzzlingbecause we're not seeing the type of a41500:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,279market, Dean that you would seein this economic environment. You're seeing the41600:30:34,279 --> 00:30:37,279type of market you would see comingout of a pandemic or coming out of41700:30:37,319 --> 00:30:41,599a recession. You're seeing the typeof market that you'd expect when everything is41800:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,880you know, a pedal to themetal and everybody's recovering. You know,41900:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,640corporating earnings are going to be better, you know the economy is going to42000:30:48,680 --> 00:30:53,319be That's not where we're at right. What you're seeing is computers trading on42100:30:53,519 --> 00:30:59,480momentum, and they also all theones that also sell. So when you42200:30:59,519 --> 00:31:03,799see them all gets down five hundredpoints, it's because they're indiscriminately selling because42300:31:03,839 --> 00:31:07,559they're hitting certain points, or somethinghappens, oil goes off, but whatever42400:31:07,640 --> 00:31:12,160it is, or yields hit acertain point, they automatically sell. The42500:31:12,160 --> 00:31:19,000whole idea is right now is thatthe computers aren't really thinking about what kind42600:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,960of is natural, right, They'rejust looking at price movement and they're picking42700:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,519the stocks out of the momentum stocks, and that's what's going on. Yeah,42800:31:26,559 --> 00:31:32,839the technical fundamental we had a littlea snapshot of what can happen uh42900:31:33,079 --> 00:31:37,160Friday afternoon with then video. Theygot up to four hundred and eighty dollars43000:31:37,160 --> 00:31:41,200a share, and an hour anda half later it was five percent lower.43100:31:41,359 --> 00:31:42,960Yeah, it dropped five percent inthe last hour and a half of43200:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,920tradeing on Friday, that's twenty points. Yeah, yes, thirty points.43300:31:49,519 --> 00:31:53,000Yeah, it got to four eightyand closed at four fifty five. While43400:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,000yeah, the the divergence between youknow, the ten year interest rates still43500:31:57,039 --> 00:32:02,160saying elevated, but technology, whichare all based on rates their growth rates,43600:32:02,240 --> 00:32:06,960right, and they just contentue totake off. It shouldn't be happening.43700:32:07,039 --> 00:32:08,759I mean, you look at theNASDAC. You're to date up thirty43800:32:08,799 --> 00:32:15,359five percent. The Dow is upfour thirty five verses four. Well,43900:32:15,359 --> 00:32:17,960they're having to rebalance the NAZAC onehundred two for the third time in history.44000:32:19,039 --> 00:32:22,960They've actually said we've got to dosomething to make this look more realistic.44100:32:22,200 --> 00:32:27,079Yes, seven stocks is makes upmore than fifty percent, and I44200:32:27,079 --> 00:32:30,480think those seven You're absolutely right,those seven stocks are going to be cut,44300:32:30,519 --> 00:32:32,039Their exposure is going to be cut, probably at least in half,44400:32:32,160 --> 00:32:37,240and yet it didn't impact them thisweek. It's to twenty four is when44500:32:37,279 --> 00:32:39,079they do it. They do itto twenty fourth before the open, you44600:32:39,079 --> 00:32:44,039would expect those seven stocks to gethit because that means everyone's selling all at44700:32:44,119 --> 00:32:46,519once. Yeah, when they rebalance, anyone who has that product is going44800:32:46,559 --> 00:32:52,759to be selling. It's gonna haveto would you make the NASDAC less risky?44900:32:52,759 --> 00:32:54,839Then? In theory? In theory, and so you have seven stocks45000:32:54,839 --> 00:32:59,119that are that should be really aggressivelysold. But if you think about it,45100:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,240the selling them up here, afterthis big move the markets fall,45200:33:02,799 --> 00:33:07,640they'll go right back in and buythem again, right And you also you45300:33:07,759 --> 00:33:10,000also can shut them and then coverwith with what you've got in the portfolios.45400:33:10,440 --> 00:33:14,079But but you know, if you'retrying to mimic the NASDAC, there45500:33:14,079 --> 00:33:16,920really is no reason to play thatgame. Is it the NASTAC or the45600:33:17,000 --> 00:33:22,400Naya, the NAZAC one hundreds differentthan the NASTAC or the NASDACK composite.45700:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,759Yeah, yeah it is, thankyou. That's a good clarification. It's45800:33:25,799 --> 00:33:30,640the NASDAC one hundred that's being rebound. But it's only the third time in45900:33:30,720 --> 00:33:35,240history. Gean nineteen ninety nine wheneverything went crazy bonkers and the you know46000:33:35,319 --> 00:33:37,720in the tech world was and thenin twenty fifteen, and I don't know46100:33:37,759 --> 00:33:42,000why. In twenty fifteen, Iprobably should have looked at up but I46200:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,799don't know what happened in twenty fifteen, but there must have been a fairly46300:33:45,799 --> 00:33:49,359significant rally in a few of thetech stocks. So with all this said,46400:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,000it's time for people to look atthe portfolios and and and make sure46500:33:54,079 --> 00:33:59,240that the balance right, the sittingright, We do remember what their risk46600:33:59,279 --> 00:34:02,400tolerance is, because right now alot of portfolios might be too risky,46700:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,039no question, and so it mightnot be too risky, but it's time46800:34:07,079 --> 00:34:10,400to sit down with your adviser andcheck it out and make sure it's fitting46900:34:10,400 --> 00:34:15,920in with your plan, your portfolio, your risk tolerance, your percentages and47000:34:15,000 --> 00:34:20,320everything else. And if you don't, we'll do that complimentary for you,47100:34:20,599 --> 00:34:23,719which means free, and we'll doit for you like coming in sending an47200:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,880appointment, and we view when yourentire thing. It's a great time to47300:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,480do redo your risk tolerance if youhaven't done it in six plus months,47400:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,719because the markets have run up alot, and a lot of people are47500:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,800coming to us right now who area lot more aggressive than they were six47600:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,960months ago, just from a mentalI can't tell you the number of calls47700:34:39,000 --> 00:34:45,199I've had from people that I knoware really nervous investors. One in enough,47800:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,039she should be more aggressive. We'vebeen through that so many times.47900:34:47,039 --> 00:34:50,480Oh, Dean, I mean,think about the people that we've had that48000:34:50,519 --> 00:34:52,920wanted to get aggressive. They putmore money in the market goes down to48100:34:53,000 --> 00:34:57,559twenty two, and they're done.They parent cash out. We had one48200:34:57,599 --> 00:35:00,360client. We had one client whois absolutely perfect. We actually called it48300:35:00,440 --> 00:35:05,119at that, you know, Joeblow Index, because he would when he48400:35:05,199 --> 00:35:07,639was selling, you wanted to bebuying. When he was buying, you48500:35:07,679 --> 00:35:10,800wanted to be selling. He isabsolutely the best contrary indicator ever. And48600:35:10,840 --> 00:35:15,320that's emotions, right, And alot of people are ruled by our emotions,48700:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,119and when you are, you needa money manager that isn't ruled by48800:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,760his emotions. Right. That's shortterm. Everyone becomes short term, right,48900:35:22,840 --> 00:35:24,400Okay, they think, oh mygod, these four months, six49000:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,280months a month, I got togo in. It's just like when the49100:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,280market falls, when you go backand look at history and you look at49200:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,519a chart, you look at theeighty seven crash, the two thousand and49300:35:32,599 --> 00:35:37,639one, two thousand and eight,the blips on the chart. But when49400:35:37,639 --> 00:35:39,920you went through him for two years, it was a heartache. It was49500:35:40,000 --> 00:35:44,440disaster. I'm never gonna get itback. I'm so old, I'm this.49600:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,480The bottom line is this is whenyou need to mitigate risk, and49700:35:47,519 --> 00:35:50,679when it goes down is when youhave to go the other way. We'll49800:35:50,679 --> 00:35:52,679be right back. Thank you forlistening to the Money mounted Show. We49900:35:52,719 --> 00:36:04,840do appreciate it. Say it's allWelcome back everybody, it's some money about50000:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,559the show. We're all here today. We got Dave, Dylan Todd and50100:36:07,719 --> 00:36:13,400myself Dean. Remember you can hearus on Sundays. You can hear us50200:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,119anytime you want, because if you'renot in town, just go to iHeart50300:36:17,239 --> 00:36:22,199the app and you can hear itlive, or go to our website.50400:36:22,360 --> 00:36:28,760We post them the next day,or just listen to podcasts with Dean Greenbooks50500:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,719fourth or July weekend the radio show. The radio station was closed on Monday50600:36:32,800 --> 00:36:37,639the third, and so it didn'tget posted until Wednesday. Well, we50700:36:37,719 --> 00:36:43,159got some phone calls on Wednesday.Where are your podcasts? Yeah we did.50800:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,480Oh it's growing, there's no doubt. I mean we're helping people and50900:36:47,599 --> 00:36:52,360I've done that the show now forwhat thirty three years, and we've moved51000:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,920into not only the money management,which we think is very very important,51100:36:57,199 --> 00:37:00,239and diversification and doing it and we'vegot a lot of experience in that.51200:37:00,599 --> 00:37:05,719But the financial plan, now,financial planning since the pandemic, pandemic has51300:37:06,119 --> 00:37:12,679skyrocketed, you know, and unfortunatelya lot of people use that pandemic the51400:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,480financial plan to just sell annuities topeople, or insurance okay, or insurance,51500:37:16,760 --> 00:37:21,840well that's a duties are insurance andproducts too. Yeah. If that's51600:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,760happening to you, I think twice. That's all I'm going to tell you.51700:37:23,840 --> 00:37:30,239Think twice. Get another opinion.A financial plan should encompass everything.51800:37:30,840 --> 00:37:35,480It should encompass when you should takeSocial Security? Are you covered enough on51900:37:35,559 --> 00:37:39,519Medicare? Which one you should be? On your tax situation? Trying to52000:37:39,559 --> 00:37:45,679reduce your tax situation? RMD situationsshould when will you take out? How52100:37:45,760 --> 00:37:49,679do you how do you save ontaxes? Yeah? I want to talk52200:37:49,679 --> 00:37:53,400about that real quick. Because ourfinancial plan has gotten more robust because of52300:37:53,440 --> 00:37:58,800this new feature, we're actually ableto go in and plan around and expect52400:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,679what taxes are going to look likethroughout retirement. For example, I was52500:38:01,719 --> 00:38:07,880creating this one proposal for a clientwhere from age sixty to sixty five,52600:38:07,880 --> 00:38:12,159we're going to focus on growing theassets. From sixty five to seventy,52700:38:12,199 --> 00:38:16,400we're gonna take money out of theIRA to lower the account value so that52800:38:16,480 --> 00:38:21,239when he turned seventy five in RMDstart, the rmds aren't going to be52900:38:21,239 --> 00:38:24,039as much. And then from seventyto seventy five taking money out of the53000:38:24,320 --> 00:38:29,159roth IRA. I'm able to modelall of this into the financial plan and53100:38:29,239 --> 00:38:34,159see exactly an estimate of how muchtaxes he could be saving based on that53200:38:34,199 --> 00:38:38,920strategy versus doing something else right andhaving to don't even want to talk about53300:38:38,960 --> 00:38:43,559that though. One I was like, well, the things you're maybe fearful53400:38:43,599 --> 00:38:45,360of, if you think a certainthing is going to happen, you can53500:38:45,599 --> 00:38:49,559put that into the program. Yeah, I mean, the program really can53600:38:49,639 --> 00:38:52,079encompass anything you want to do.It's if you have if say you think53700:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,400you might if social Security, ifyou think it's going to get cut,53800:38:55,559 --> 00:38:59,760we can play with that and seewhat would happen to your plan if say53900:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,280social Security got cut by twenty fivefifty percent, anything like that. We54000:39:02,320 --> 00:39:06,039can kind of show you would itaffect your plan or would it not?54100:39:06,039 --> 00:39:07,599Would it even matter? And alot of times it really doesn't matter.54200:39:07,639 --> 00:39:12,519So US gives them a fresh breathand a sense of relief in that sense,54300:39:12,599 --> 00:39:15,960because usually that's a big fear islike all they hear is social security54400:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,760is going to go away in twentythirty six, so security is this and54500:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,360that. But then you really showthem it really doesn't do much to the54600:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,280plan helps them sleep at night.Yeah, I think Dean brought up a54700:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,960very good point. If you gothrough the financial plan, and at the54800:39:27,039 --> 00:39:30,440end of the financial plan the personthat's giving it two you says, based54900:39:30,480 --> 00:39:35,159on this, I really think youneed an annuity, you know, this55000:39:35,840 --> 00:39:40,719particular annuity. If the financial plancomes with a recommendation to do a product,55100:39:42,119 --> 00:39:45,199there's probably an issue with it.If it depends. No, yeah,55200:39:45,199 --> 00:39:47,599it depends because I mean we recommendproducts too, but not in the55300:39:47,639 --> 00:39:51,559sense of one hundred percent of yourwhole portfolio is going into one product.55400:39:52,000 --> 00:39:53,920We don't. We don't want toput even the majority of anything into one55500:39:53,920 --> 00:39:59,440product. But you're also talking tothese talking in generalities, right we are.55600:39:59,440 --> 00:40:00,719It's all siffic to your plan.I mean, if it fits to55700:40:00,840 --> 00:40:05,679go into a variable annuity or somethinglike that in the sense of guaranteed income,55800:40:06,000 --> 00:40:07,920because that's what you need during retirementto bridge your gap between expenses and55900:40:07,960 --> 00:40:14,519income that makes sense, Z variableannuity with the income writer, they can56000:40:14,519 --> 00:40:16,559get your journey three percent the shop. Everything doesn't matter. But we're not56100:40:16,599 --> 00:40:21,599saying we're never gonna go into anannuity because it wouldn't if it makes sense56200:40:21,639 --> 00:40:24,639saying it doesn't end with an annuity. Pitch right now? Well, also,56300:40:24,800 --> 00:40:29,480like what's fearful? Right? Peoplehave very common concerns. Will my56400:40:29,519 --> 00:40:31,599soul security to get cut? WillI live too long? What happens if56500:40:31,639 --> 00:40:36,559there's a big two thousand and eightrecession during retirement? What happen too long?56600:40:37,000 --> 00:40:38,719Yeah? I think will I outlivemy money? Is probably a better56700:40:38,760 --> 00:40:42,760way to say that. Oh okay, well that's the same the same thing.56800:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,559But you know, oh out there, sound well, what I live56900:40:45,599 --> 00:40:47,119too long? You know, lastyear, the biggest concerned inflation. What57000:40:47,119 --> 00:40:51,119happens if we have five percent inflationfor the next ten years. We can57100:40:51,199 --> 00:40:53,400model that, We can show youexactly what would how your plan would look57200:40:53,440 --> 00:40:59,079based on that, And having allthese included in the plan actually allows us57300:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,440to look at all the products availableand see which one works best. Because57400:41:01,440 --> 00:41:06,599if you're just selling one product,that product is only going to have safety57500:41:06,599 --> 00:41:09,280for a certain number of concerns.What happens when that one concern pops up57600:41:09,440 --> 00:41:13,039like a big market drop, andnow you need extra liquidity, but you57700:41:13,039 --> 00:41:15,559can't get it out of the annuitybecause of surrender penalty. Let's let's talk57800:41:15,559 --> 00:41:23,360about annuity for a second. Lastyear, what's the greatest biggest sales revenue57900:41:23,360 --> 00:41:28,239for annuities? Right right? Alltime record? People sold annuities in the58000:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,559last The second one was two thousandnine, right after another big crowd.58100:41:30,599 --> 00:41:35,199And what did we say, donot be putting your growth money in the58200:41:35,239 --> 00:41:39,519annuity just because you're scanned, right, okay, because all of a sudden,58300:41:39,559 --> 00:41:44,880what they sell they sell fear fearfear. So now even if you're58400:41:44,880 --> 00:41:49,760in a balanced portfolio, you're upeight percent. I promise you you're not58500:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,480up that much in the annuities.We'll guarantee you five percent. Can you58600:41:52,480 --> 00:41:58,480hear the sp seventeen? You guesswhat you're getting? Five percent exactly.58700:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,280But mind it's the fees out ofit. There's a place for it.58800:42:01,760 --> 00:42:06,480There's a place for a nuity.So saving on taxes, needings in a58900:42:06,559 --> 00:42:10,039guaranteed income stream. I get allthat, but most of it is just59000:42:10,280 --> 00:42:16,440more sales on fear and I'm tiredof listening to these people tell you that59100:42:17,000 --> 00:42:23,039fear of fear don't sell. Fear, fear sell optimism sell. How are59200:42:23,039 --> 00:42:27,679you going to mitigate risk along withmaking money going up? I could not59300:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,280be wrong from forty two hundred thelast three hundred SMP points. I'm baffled.59400:42:31,679 --> 00:42:37,599But we still made money while stillprotecting the portfolios. That is so59500:42:37,679 --> 00:42:42,880important that people don't even realize it. But if you're an annuity, you're59600:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,800not anywhere nia what the markets aredoing, even nine to ten percent that59700:42:46,960 --> 00:42:51,880the average balanced portfolio is this year. The annuity has to make sense for59800:42:51,920 --> 00:42:53,920your entire plan. That's pretty muchwhat we're saying in that and your risk59900:42:54,119 --> 00:42:58,559and your risk, and but it'snever We're never going to put one hundred60000:42:58,599 --> 00:43:00,960percent of your portfolio into it.Won't do that in that sense because it60100:43:01,039 --> 00:43:04,719can never be. It won't bethat idea. I heard another. I60200:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,159heard it last night. I waswatching a TV and I had there was60300:43:07,199 --> 00:43:12,599a commercial on for a twenty fivepercent bonus if you sign up for this60400:43:12,599 --> 00:43:16,159annuity, plus I guaranteed ten percentper year. People. That is not60500:43:16,360 --> 00:43:21,679real money, right, That isfunny money. You get. It's your60600:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,480income, it's your income writer factor. That's all it is. With all60700:43:24,519 --> 00:43:29,760that said, okay, if youtake some of your games off. Now,60800:43:30,840 --> 00:43:32,199say you say you had five hundredthousand and you made one hundred,60900:43:32,239 --> 00:43:36,119one hundred and fifty grand this year, and you take one hundred grand off61000:43:36,519 --> 00:43:39,440and put it into annuity. Nowit's not such a bad idea. But61100:43:39,559 --> 00:43:44,000that's not your growth money anymore,right because you locked you're locked in,61200:43:44,199 --> 00:43:46,599you locked in, you're you're gained, and put it into something you can't61300:43:46,679 --> 00:43:50,119lose, and I only go forward. Well, even better than that.61400:43:50,199 --> 00:43:53,199How about instead of maybe not evengetting it because in a fix index nudity61500:43:53,239 --> 00:43:55,440might get zero percent, how aboutyou lock those in, put it into61600:43:55,480 --> 00:44:00,920a MAGA where you're getting five pointtwo percent guaranteed for either three years,61700:44:00,960 --> 00:44:04,639five or seven years. You pickedthe term MICA is a multi year guaranteed61800:44:04,639 --> 00:44:07,360annuity. And what it is ispretty much a CD from a bank,61900:44:07,599 --> 00:44:12,360but it's getting you a better interestrate. And those are for taxable accounts,62000:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,280a taxab account. You're not payingany taxes on that. It's almost62100:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,599said, it's a CD from aCD with a life insurance company. It's62200:44:17,639 --> 00:44:22,079exactly what right without but the beautyof it you don't pay taxes to you62300:44:22,119 --> 00:44:24,559take it out. Yeah, andyou can control that. You can control62400:44:24,599 --> 00:44:28,000that you don't have to take itout at the end of five years.62500:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,119It's one of those few products whereyou can actually know what's your ending value62600:44:30,119 --> 00:44:34,960going to be. Yeah, it'svery simple control. Being part of this62700:44:35,079 --> 00:44:38,480rally is going on is because Ithink that most analystic recession is now off62800:44:38,519 --> 00:44:43,679the table, but the bond market'stelling you there's no way, right,62900:44:44,119 --> 00:44:45,920there's no way the recessions off thetable. It's still common. Yeah.63000:44:45,960 --> 00:44:51,440And with inflation slowing, that meansthe economy is slowing right, right,63100:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,719it's not growing at the same rate. So what happens if inflation turns into63200:44:53,760 --> 00:44:59,519deflation? Yeah, that's something tobe concerned about. It. The yield63300:44:59,519 --> 00:45:04,320spread is still uh inverted. There'sstill one percent difference between the two year63400:45:04,400 --> 00:45:08,920treasury and the ten Again, theonly thing I can tell you for sure,63500:45:10,239 --> 00:45:14,440nobody knows what's going to cause themarket to go down. They always63600:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,840go down at some time and thenyou go, oh, that's what caused63700:45:16,840 --> 00:45:20,719it, right, yep, Okay. All I can tell you is there's63800:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,559risk I'm not sure where the riskwill come from the knock the market down,63900:45:23,880 --> 00:45:28,960but the valuations are creating risk.And if it's like a house of64000:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,400cards, it's not. It's notcement steps right now, So a house64100:45:32,440 --> 00:45:37,039of cards when the thoughts tumbling,like you said with na video, all64200:45:37,119 --> 00:45:39,800of a sudden, it's dropped thirtypoints in one an hour. Yeah,64300:45:40,159 --> 00:45:44,039okay, yeah, that's because onceeveryone wants to go out the door at64400:45:44,079 --> 00:45:45,800the same time. Said, well, you go to a party, right,64500:45:45,840 --> 00:45:49,800and go to a house party andthere's two hundred people in the house64600:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,360party. But it was never aproblem, right because she came at different64700:45:52,360 --> 00:45:55,719times and went in the door,front door. But everyone's in the house.64800:45:55,760 --> 00:46:01,119Now, now there's a problem.There's you know, you don't can't64900:46:01,159 --> 00:46:05,199get out the front door. Atthe same time, you're jumping out of65000:46:05,239 --> 00:46:07,880windows, you're knocking in walls,you're doing whatever to get out to save65100:46:07,920 --> 00:46:12,519yourself. And if you think aboutthat way the market, you want to65200:46:12,559 --> 00:46:15,480we'll leave that party a little bitearly and walk through the door so you65300:46:15,480 --> 00:46:20,239don't have to be injured. Ifyou're comfortatigate your risk. I can't tell65400:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,679you how much I want you tomitigate your risk right now for the rest65500:46:22,719 --> 00:46:24,840of the year, and then youcan see where we are off from there.65600:46:24,960 --> 00:46:29,239If you're comfortable with sixty percent exposureto the market, and now that's65700:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,079seventy percent, cut it back tosixty, cut it back to where you're65800:46:32,079 --> 00:46:36,559comfortable. This is not a timeto be more aggressive. I think a65900:46:36,559 --> 00:46:39,159lot of time to be all in. If you looked at yourself six if66000:46:39,199 --> 00:46:43,679you could go six months in thefuture and if we had the markets drop66100:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,480and you could look back saying Icould have got a guaranteed rate of return66200:46:46,599 --> 00:46:51,360with a treasury on MIGA CD whateverit may be, and you didn't do66300:46:51,440 --> 00:46:53,079that, and you would you bekicking yourself six months down the road.66400:46:53,360 --> 00:46:57,239That's how you have to think aboutit now, because if you go back66500:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,559and the markets drop significantly and youcould have got guaranteed into you're gonna be66600:47:00,599 --> 00:47:02,320really mad at yourself. And it'snot like you're giving up the growth part.66700:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,679You still have it. All you'redoing is taking the money off the66800:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,440table that you've gained. Yeah,just it's it's time to be cautious.66900:47:08,480 --> 00:47:12,400It's not a time to be aggressive. It's not a time. And I67000:47:12,519 --> 00:47:17,519get these calls from from conservative riskadverse people that thinking, well, maybe67100:47:17,559 --> 00:47:22,199we ought to just up up ourallocation to the market a little bit here.67200:47:22,559 --> 00:47:25,280No, No, it's kind oflike the same flag when you got67300:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,960a lot of all your friends startcalling you about penny stocks like we did67400:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,239back in twenty twenty, same idea. All right, listen, many ways67500:47:32,280 --> 00:47:36,079to call us, many ways tosee us. We can do a lot67600:47:36,119 --> 00:47:37,960of things for you. All youhave to do is get in touch.67700:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,920We'll be right back. You're listeningto the Money Bounty Show. If you67800:47:40,079 --> 00:47:44,079miss it, go look, golook it up. It's on a website.67900:47:44,199 --> 00:47:45,599You'll be able to hear it byMonday night. We'll be right back.68000:47:46,599 --> 00:47:54,760Say it's all. Welcome back,everybody. This is the Money Batty68100:47:54,800 --> 00:47:59,920Show. This is Dean Greenbook.I'm here with Dave, Dylan and Time.68200:48:00,599 --> 00:48:02,320And what you're trying to do isgive you the information that we know68300:48:04,119 --> 00:48:07,599on how to protect yourself, whywe protect ourselves, why planning is important,68400:48:07,679 --> 00:48:12,880what it does, and everything else. It's very good stuff that's going68500:48:12,920 --> 00:48:17,199on. And you know what,people are concerned, but when things are68600:48:17,199 --> 00:48:21,639going good, they stop being concerneduntil they start falling. This is the68700:48:21,719 --> 00:48:24,360time to be concerned. Now.Now when the market falls five or ten68800:48:24,400 --> 00:48:30,320or fifteen percent again, now isthe time to be concerned and do something68900:48:30,360 --> 00:48:34,280about it. It's easier to sellwhen the markets are higher than when it69000:48:34,360 --> 00:48:38,480is lower. There were thirty percentoff at the October low. Pretty good69100:48:38,559 --> 00:48:42,679rally and nine but not even ninemonths? Right? Can we keep talking69200:48:42,679 --> 00:48:45,079about it? How? I meanthis rally has been big, but it's69300:48:45,079 --> 00:48:49,480been centered around seven stocks very nearand that's yeah, it's very narrow,69400:48:49,639 --> 00:48:52,039and it can turn very quickly becausethose stocks can turn very quickly. It69500:48:52,119 --> 00:48:55,400can turn negative very quickly. There'san awful lot of stocks that have not69600:48:55,559 --> 00:49:00,159been participating. I think we talkedabout the Dow the thirty dolls. Half69700:49:00,199 --> 00:49:04,199of them are down for the year. Half of the thirty stocks. The69800:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,360index itself is up four percent oryeah. I mean, it's like it69900:49:07,400 --> 00:49:09,760is all the AI craze right now, which is in video. But when70000:49:09,760 --> 00:49:13,559a video is one hundred and eightydollars a share, nobody wanted to touch70100:49:13,559 --> 00:49:16,400it. That was about what thirteenmonths ago, not even Yeah. I70200:49:16,400 --> 00:49:20,960think the one thing about the dollyou should point out is you have only70300:49:21,000 --> 00:49:25,599thirty stocks in that index, right, So from a diversification standpoint, you're70400:49:25,639 --> 00:49:30,360not having allocation to the broad rangeof the market as much as you are70500:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,840with the NASTAC and the S ANDPjust by pure number six. I remember,70600:49:32,840 --> 00:49:37,119the Dow does have Microsoft and Applein it. You take Microsoft and70700:49:37,159 --> 00:49:38,960Apple out of the Dow, you'redown right. And you know, the70800:49:39,079 --> 00:49:45,079five dividend ETFs I follow are downan average of two percent for the year.70900:49:45,320 --> 00:49:50,320They're down, with a Nastack upthirty five percent. These are down.71000:49:50,599 --> 00:49:52,920Everybody's flocking to growth. Yeah,I mean, I mean it's evident.71100:49:53,000 --> 00:49:57,320The Nastac's up thirty five percent,the seven stock, Yeah, the71200:49:57,360 --> 00:50:00,920magnificent percent from his loss, andall se even stocks are being priced on71300:50:00,960 --> 00:50:05,400this price to magic ratio. Yes, it could be worth as much as71400:50:05,400 --> 00:50:07,840you want, and you don't needa reason or about any fundamental reason.71500:50:08,159 --> 00:50:12,920The future idea of it with AI, with Apple coming out, the VR71600:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,239headsets and everything and what they're doing, that's really what they're basing on.71700:50:15,280 --> 00:50:19,519And then Meta came out with Threads, which is Twitter's rival. How about71800:50:19,559 --> 00:50:22,760that one hundred million users in lessthan a week. Yeah, and they're71900:50:22,760 --> 00:50:27,519talking about it really starting to bea competitor. Like quickly with Twitter.72000:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,920Twitter is a traffic apparently going offof the cliff. Yeah, and the72100:50:30,920 --> 00:50:34,639aline has got to be sitting.They're going, oh, oh, this72200:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,599was not a good investment. They'retrying different things to keep it going.72300:50:37,599 --> 00:50:38,480But I mean, I'm not abig Twitter guys. I'm not either.72400:50:38,639 --> 00:50:42,519I'm not either. I don't thinkmost people. I will say this,72500:50:42,639 --> 00:50:45,880and I said it before. Twitteris the best space for financial news to72600:50:45,960 --> 00:50:50,559get it from more than one sourceand get it as soon as it comes72700:50:50,559 --> 00:50:54,639out. I love Twitter. Theycall it finn Twitter financial Twitter, and72800:50:54,800 --> 00:50:58,519uh, you know, you followall the major people, you follow the72900:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,400good talking points, and you canget a lot better analysis of what's going73000:51:01,440 --> 00:51:05,039on than you can from just theheadlines. I know that one I look73100:51:05,079 --> 00:51:07,039out on the city of Tucson andthere's black smoke somewhere, I'll go on73200:51:07,039 --> 00:51:09,400Twitter and see if I can figureout what's going on. Or if I'm73300:51:09,440 --> 00:51:15,360on on the freeway between here inCalifornia and there's a wreck I'm stopped in73400:51:15,400 --> 00:51:17,199traffic happens once in a while,that's a good point when I'll get on73500:51:17,199 --> 00:51:22,320Twitter. On the Arizona Department ofTransportation Twitter and usually I can tell him.73600:51:22,360 --> 00:51:25,719Sometimes it's even a picture there,so it's actually can be informative.73700:51:27,119 --> 00:51:30,280We had those protests, I wouldbe on Twitter finding for the like.73800:51:30,480 --> 00:51:35,199You can find a lot more newson every single city and actually see someone73900:51:35,280 --> 00:51:37,679on the ground floor taking you know, a live video of something and instead74000:51:37,679 --> 00:51:42,639of just whatever the news is showingyou. And then have you been on74100:51:42,679 --> 00:51:46,159the Facebook. I haven't been themeta threads or whatever. I didn't know74200:51:46,159 --> 00:51:50,719where you'd find it. Not tryingto expand my social media presence. Let74300:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,840me give us a summary of whathappened in the market last week. Don't74400:51:52,880 --> 00:51:53,760Yeah, we had a great weekactually, I mean the DALLA was up74500:51:53,800 --> 00:51:58,239two point three percent, the SPfive hundred was up two point four percent,74600:51:59,000 --> 00:52:00,800the NASDAC almost led it at threepoint three percent, and then the74700:52:00,840 --> 00:52:06,000Russell two thousand, which is thesmall cap did lead everything at three point74800:52:06,079 --> 00:52:09,400six percent. But then the equalweighted SMP five hundred the RSP was up74900:52:09,400 --> 00:52:13,679two point four percent. So asa whole, the regular SMP five hundred75000:52:13,719 --> 00:52:15,920and the RSP up the exact same, which hasn't happened well, No,75100:52:16,000 --> 00:52:21,079in a new fifty two week highfor the NASDACK and for the five hundred.75200:52:21,239 --> 00:52:23,480We are over forty five hundred onthe SMP, which is just it's75300:52:23,519 --> 00:52:29,800unbelievable. At forty three twenty fivewas the August high, and we thought75400:52:29,800 --> 00:52:32,000that would be where it would stop. Frankly, just well again, we've75500:52:32,079 --> 00:52:36,239kept our core, so we areparticipating. We are you know, we're75600:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,360not up thirty percent like the nasdack, but most of our accounts are are75700:52:39,039 --> 00:52:42,199up eight, nine, ten percent. Yeah, And I mean if the75800:52:42,199 --> 00:52:45,760account is part of the risk tolerancethat could have those type of growth stocks,75900:52:45,760 --> 00:52:47,679and they were in it before,like they opened a count a couple76000:52:47,679 --> 00:52:50,480of years ago, they're going tobe in those type of stocks, those76100:52:50,519 --> 00:52:53,519big tech stocks. We're on buyingthem right now because they're just completely overvalued76200:52:53,559 --> 00:52:57,719and just all keep it in newhighs. We don't see that it's would76300:52:57,800 --> 00:53:00,679be smart to buy any buy intoany new doc like that right now.76400:53:00,880 --> 00:53:05,199Now. It's just again it's nota time to be aggressive. It's like76500:53:05,239 --> 00:53:07,880Dean said, it's a time tobe fearful. It's a time to be76600:53:07,920 --> 00:53:12,559cautious. It's just time to bepatient. There's the fear index is as76700:53:12,559 --> 00:53:15,519low as it's spending years. Thereis no fear, there is no concern.76800:53:16,159 --> 00:53:21,960All it takes is one little glitchand this thing can roll over,76900:53:22,199 --> 00:53:24,559Like we saw with Nvidio, fivepercent in an hour and a half.77000:53:25,119 --> 00:53:28,639Can you see that? Can yousee the market drop five percent an hour77100:53:28,639 --> 00:53:31,320and a half? Absolutely, I'veseen it. I'm not predicting that.77200:53:31,719 --> 00:53:37,440I think probably the first couple ofmoves down will be bought because there are77300:53:37,480 --> 00:53:39,679people that just are just dying toget into this thing. Yeah, they77400:53:39,679 --> 00:53:44,239think a five percent drops absolutely,absolutely, So I think it's going to77500:53:44,320 --> 00:53:49,119take a couple of those downward movesfor there to be any kind of a77600:53:49,159 --> 00:53:53,159sustainable decline. And I would thinka reasonable decline at this level would be77700:53:53,159 --> 00:53:58,320back to that forty three twenty fivelevel as a as a first spot it77800:53:58,400 --> 00:54:00,519was about five percent. Oh yeah, that would be. That would be77900:54:00,559 --> 00:54:06,760where you expect there to be somesupport for the former resistance and become support.78000:54:06,840 --> 00:54:08,119Well, we'll see too. We'recoming into a historically a couple of78100:54:08,159 --> 00:54:12,679bad months. September is usually theworst one. August isn't too much better,78200:54:13,239 --> 00:54:15,199So we'll see what happens is duringthose two months, I mean,78300:54:15,480 --> 00:54:16,320and then at the end of theyear we do see a rally, so78400:54:17,199 --> 00:54:21,079historically this is all historically speaking,So we'll see what happens in the next78500:54:21,119 --> 00:54:23,440couple of months. If markus dowhat it's done in the past. I78600:54:23,440 --> 00:54:28,199think from a technical standpoint, youneed to be very cautious right here.78700:54:28,280 --> 00:54:32,639I mean, all the technical indicatorsare screaming oversold. Everything's above, they're78800:54:32,679 --> 00:54:37,599moving averages, everything's on the topend of the relative strength and decks macd's78900:54:37,599 --> 00:54:42,400are at the top end of therange. So every everything is looking like79000:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,199we've reached the top end of thisrally, which doesn't mean we can keep79100:54:45,280 --> 00:54:50,320going higher. It just means thatevery point higher we go, the more79200:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,639risk of going down increases, andthe market can stay irrational longer than you79300:54:53,639 --> 00:54:58,079can stay liquid. Right Yeah.Yeah, We're not saying this be like79400:54:58,159 --> 00:55:01,079to fear into you. We're justsaying because the idea that this market isn't79500:55:01,119 --> 00:55:07,239invincible, it could turn quick.No, if you're those seven stocks,79600:55:07,280 --> 00:55:12,039the Apple's, the Microsoft's, dayand Videos and the meadows of the world79700:55:12,320 --> 00:55:15,079that have led this thing, thoseare scary, scary expensive right now.79800:55:15,400 --> 00:55:22,000Price earnest ratio on the market.Historically, the average price earnings ratio of79900:55:22,039 --> 00:55:27,599the market is sixteen. Right nowwe're twenty six and change, so we're80000:55:28,280 --> 00:55:34,360seventy percent above historic norms. Doesthat and you generally only get there when80100:55:34,440 --> 00:55:37,440you believe that coming like coming outof the pandemic, when you thought the80200:55:37,480 --> 00:55:42,519corporate earnings were going to accelerate withall of the money the government was thrown80300:55:42,559 --> 00:55:46,639into the economy. That's when youtypically see those price earnings ratios up around80400:55:46,639 --> 00:55:52,199those levels. Not in this environment. Oil was up at buck forty on80500:55:52,239 --> 00:55:55,039the week finished the seventy five twentyfive. That's the highest oil has been80600:55:55,079 --> 00:56:00,639since April. Well, it hitseventy seven midweek and then had a big80700:56:00,679 --> 00:56:04,800sell off on Friday. H SS. April. Gold up twenty eight80800:56:04,800 --> 00:56:07,119dollars on the week to nineteen fiftyfive. It's pretty good move on.80900:56:07,199 --> 00:56:12,079Gold keeps moving back towards that twothousand and it gets up to two thousand81000:56:12,119 --> 00:56:15,599and falls apart. Bitcoin was interestingweek, TI, Do you wanted to81100:56:15,639 --> 00:56:19,000talk about that a little bit.Yeah, So we had ripple that was81200:56:19,039 --> 00:56:22,679in a lawsuit with the SCC.I don't believe the SECU actually ruled it81300:56:22,719 --> 00:56:30,719was a ripple is a crypto coinripple. They were basically trying to see81400:56:30,719 --> 00:56:35,159if this was a securities transaction,and the judge ruled that it's not a81500:56:35,199 --> 00:56:39,719securities transaction, therefore they didn't breakany rules. With that being said,81600:56:40,119 --> 00:56:45,559Ripple took off. They were upseventy percent. On Thursday. Bitcoin followed81700:56:45,599 --> 00:56:50,119suit as long with all the othercryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was up like five percent.81800:56:50,360 --> 00:56:53,920But then on Friday we saw amassive sell off, basically erasing any81900:56:53,960 --> 00:56:58,320gain that the crypto coin had theprevious day, just right back to where82000:56:58,360 --> 00:57:02,360it started. Very volatile week wouldchange, no change. The regional bank82100:57:02,440 --> 00:57:07,679indecks up another four percent this week, now twenty five percent off of that82200:57:07,800 --> 00:57:12,840low that hit back on May thefourth. We talk about that because that82300:57:13,039 --> 00:57:16,760was the big problem, the collapseof regional banking as we know it,82400:57:16,920 --> 00:57:22,320right, and it seems that thathas stabilized now. It's one of the82500:57:22,360 --> 00:57:25,239reasons that this market's been off tothe races. And Dean talked about in82600:57:25,280 --> 00:57:30,119his monologue. You know Jamie Diamondreally astute, obviously being the CEO of82700:57:30,199 --> 00:57:36,480JP Morgan him saying that the biggestconcern is still the banks, and most82800:57:36,519 --> 00:57:38,840likely he's talking about the regional banks, right. The big banks have a82900:57:38,920 --> 00:57:43,440very strong balance sheet. They justpassed the stress tests by the FED,83000:57:43,639 --> 00:57:46,039but regional banks aren't subject to thatstress test by the FED, and they83100:57:46,079 --> 00:57:50,000have a different type of balance sheet. There are a lot bigger in the83200:57:50,079 --> 00:57:52,880commercial real estate sector, and asDean was mentioning, who's going back to83300:57:52,960 --> 00:57:58,079offices right, it's been a veryslow migration to get back there, and83400:57:58,159 --> 00:58:01,599there's still many vacancies in these offsand next year. Dylan talked about it83500:58:01,639 --> 00:58:07,480a couple of weeks ago on theshow. There's around what a billion a83600:58:07,519 --> 00:58:09,599trillion, which is insane. It'sover the next two or three years is83700:58:09,639 --> 00:58:15,280over a trillion dollars worth of commercialreal estate coming up for refinance. And83800:58:15,440 --> 00:58:19,880if just a bunch of these buildingsare vanking, they can't get these workers83900:58:19,920 --> 00:58:22,639back, so they just kind ofthe room off. So these rates are84000:58:22,119 --> 00:58:27,559higher than obviously what they were fiveyears ago, and everyone's refinancing, those84100:58:27,559 --> 00:58:30,280payments are gonna at least double,probably more, which trickles down to the84200:58:30,320 --> 00:58:34,360rest of the economy, which ifyou know, those commercial real estate go84300:58:34,440 --> 00:58:37,159bankrupt, it affects the regional banksbalance sheet, which then affects more of84400:58:37,159 --> 00:58:42,079the economy. So there's still that'sthe only black swan that you can kind84500:58:42,079 --> 00:58:45,559of project out that you could possiblysee everything else, who knows, Maybe84600:58:45,599 --> 00:58:49,559it hits and then we hindsights twentytwenty. Oh, we should have known84700:58:49,599 --> 00:58:52,800that was going to happen. Butright now that's the only concern I can84800:58:52,880 --> 00:58:58,280really see that could pan out,and really haven't seen anything else that could84900:58:58,320 --> 00:59:04,559cause something like that. The commercialreal estate is important because regional banks provide85000:59:04,639 --> 00:59:07,800most of that financing right for commercialreal estates. That's why we talk about85100:59:07,800 --> 00:59:12,239it. One of your one ofyour phoenix companies, carbon I. Have85200:59:12,320 --> 00:59:15,559you watched that this week? Wellthis year, they've been killing it.85300:59:15,079 --> 00:59:19,320At the end of last year,the stock was three dollars and fifty cents.85400:59:19,679 --> 00:59:22,280Looked like it was headed for bankruptcy. Since then, it has increased85500:59:22,280 --> 00:59:28,599a thousand percent a thousand percent.Rallied again on Monday after the company said85600:59:28,840 --> 00:59:36,599it expected exponential growth within its usedelectric vehicle segment, which is which demand85700:59:36,679 --> 00:59:40,440continues to skyrocket for evs. Seethat's how irrational this market is. Because85800:59:40,480 --> 00:59:44,440you just said at the first segmentor the second segment of the show,85900:59:44,760 --> 00:59:50,559CPI, one of the sectors usedcar sales down what nineteen percent. Then86000:59:50,639 --> 00:59:54,559this a used car dealer, Yeah, up a thousand percent, probably because86100:59:54,599 --> 01:00:00,320there are more technologue techniques, youknow, savvy used car dealer. But86201:00:00,480 --> 01:00:04,840realistically, how can they be doingso much better than all the other used86301:00:04,840 --> 01:00:09,159cars people when we just saw thatthe average nationally is down nineteen percent year.86401:00:09,480 --> 01:00:15,760The other one that's really doing greatis Carmacks and at their stocks up86501:00:15,800 --> 01:00:17,559thirty five percent or something for theyear, most of it within the last86601:00:17,639 --> 01:00:22,360ninety days. And I said lastweek I had some experience with them,86701:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,280and they're they're really a wonderful company. They were really easy to deal with,86801:00:25,440 --> 01:00:30,760and what they said they stuck toand uh, you know, I'll86901:00:30,760 --> 01:00:34,280walk in with a title and handedit to them and they gave me a87001:00:34,360 --> 01:00:37,079check and have a nice day.I bring it up because these markets aren't87101:00:37,079 --> 01:00:40,199based on fundamentals, right, becauseif you're looking out in minus nineteen percent87201:00:40,320 --> 01:00:44,119year of a year, you don'tthink that's a good place for growth.87301:00:44,440 --> 01:00:45,800If you see interest rates where theyare right now, you don't think that's87401:00:45,800 --> 01:00:52,039a good place for growth. Butwe're seeing it constantly. And JP Morgan87501:00:52,119 --> 01:00:55,000came out on Thursday and downgraded theshares of Carvon, and this is kind87601:00:55,000 --> 01:01:00,840of where I was leading with this. They said the valuation is disconnect materially87701:01:00,119 --> 01:01:06,199from fundamentals, and I think we'reseeing a lot of different companies where you87801:01:06,239 --> 01:01:13,800could make the case that's fundamentals areare disconnected from the valuation. Lucid,87901:01:14,159 --> 01:01:16,280you know, I would talk alittle bit about the luxury electric vehicle company88001:01:16,320 --> 01:01:22,039added four percent on Monday, gainedroughly thirty four percent. Lucid since hitting88101:01:22,039 --> 01:01:25,599a fifty two weeks long in Junetwenty third. June twenty third, there88201:01:25,599 --> 01:01:30,639are thirty four percent at Pune,twelve percent on Wednesday on Newsday delivered to88301:01:30,679 --> 01:01:34,960get this fourteen hundred and four vehiclesin the second quarter, fourteen hundred and88401:01:34,960 --> 01:01:37,280four. Just a reminder, Tesladid three hundred and sixty six thousand.88501:01:37,480 --> 01:01:43,400It's a reminder about seventy percent ofwhat they produced. Lucid was able to88601:01:43,440 --> 01:01:45,960deliver about seventy percent of what theyproduced. Todd, you talked about this88701:01:46,039 --> 01:01:51,119last week. With the exception ofFord, most of the electric vehicle companies88801:01:51,159 --> 01:01:54,800are now producing more than they're selling. And you have to wonder, we've88901:01:54,840 --> 01:01:59,199talked about this on the show aswell. Do you get to a point89001:01:59,239 --> 01:02:02,679where everyone that wants one and parttwo, which is equally important, can't89101:02:02,719 --> 01:02:07,119afford one as one. Right,I will say that I was in the89201:02:07,119 --> 01:02:12,519Tesla dealership a few weeks ago.It's an awfully busy place over at a89301:02:13,039 --> 01:02:15,480river and oracle. Yeah, becauseI don't know if that would happen.89401:02:15,480 --> 01:02:17,239I think new people would always comeup that are up for a new car,89501:02:17,320 --> 01:02:20,760that can afford it every time,you know, I don't think they'll89601:02:21,000 --> 01:02:22,719run well. I mean, ifyou hit a recession, right, people89701:02:22,719 --> 01:02:28,360aren't buying new cars. So ifyou have a glut of inventory on your89801:02:28,360 --> 01:02:31,360balance sheet, then a recession hits, no one's buying new electric vehicles.89901:02:31,400 --> 01:02:35,559You gotta now cut your prices,which is cutting your margin, and it's90001:02:35,599 --> 01:02:38,400just a death spiral. Toyota hasbeen slow to bring electric vehicles to the90101:02:38,440 --> 01:02:43,920market. They've been preferring the hybrid. What Toyota does is important because they're90201:02:43,920 --> 01:02:46,760the world's largest car builder right right, and they have quite a presence in90301:02:46,800 --> 01:02:51,880the United States. Last week,the company said that a new solid state90401:02:51,920 --> 01:02:57,199battery that they are developing will havea seven hundred and twenty mile range and90501:02:57,400 --> 01:03:00,000charge in ten minutes. That wouldbe a game change. Wow, that90601:03:00,199 --> 01:03:05,960is a game changer. Range andcharging times are the two biggest negatives for90701:03:06,000 --> 01:03:08,480electric vehicles. Boy, it wouldjust be a big win, fretty if90801:03:08,519 --> 01:03:14,320they did have a different type ofbattery that actually could be charged in ten90901:03:14,320 --> 01:03:16,039minutes and give you a seven hundredmiles. I wonder if they're going to91001:03:16,079 --> 01:03:21,800make it compatible with the Tesla,the Tesla charging stations, the socket.91101:03:21,880 --> 01:03:24,559Yeah, that'd be interesting because that'sthose are big rabbles. But you know,91201:03:24,599 --> 01:03:31,079we know the four GM rivan andsomebody else recently went to the Tesla91301:03:31,199 --> 01:03:35,920charging system. Let me talk aboutthis a little bit because we've we've been91401:03:35,960 --> 01:03:42,280trying to do a little educational onelectric vehicles. Since around twenty five percent91501:03:42,320 --> 01:03:46,360of all new car sales are electricvehicles. It's and it's growing rather rapidly.91601:03:49,360 --> 01:03:52,480Someone said last week that since onlyfive percent of automobile trips are more91701:03:52,519 --> 01:03:58,920than thirty miles, range really doesn'tmatter. And I would say to that91801:03:59,000 --> 01:04:03,480bunk that it's just bunk. Ifyou're not charging at home, if you91901:04:03,559 --> 01:04:08,840don't have a home charger and yourvehicle is getting less than two hundred mile92001:04:08,960 --> 01:04:12,159range, which is fairly normal,that's real world stuff. They say it92101:04:12,159 --> 01:04:15,119it gets three hundred to fifty threehundred. If you get two hundred's that's92201:04:15,159 --> 01:04:18,440a big deal in the real world. Because of the air conditioner, they92301:04:18,440 --> 01:04:21,760don't talk about that when they giveyou the ratings. Because of the heat,92401:04:21,960 --> 01:04:26,840they don't talk about that. Becauseof the radio, there's all kinds92501:04:26,840 --> 01:04:30,440of electronics in the car. Forinstance, there's a feature in the Tesla92601:04:30,519 --> 01:04:34,639that you can turn on that willmake sure that the cabin never gets above92701:04:34,639 --> 01:04:39,360a hundred degrees no matter where you'reparking. You'll be parked outside in the92801:04:39,400 --> 01:04:44,000sun in Phoenix and your cabin willnever get above one hundred degrees. However,92901:04:44,440 --> 01:04:48,000it's stuck in your battery dry,keeping that below. So you know,93001:04:48,440 --> 01:04:54,239in the real world, the averageperson drives about one thousand miles a93101:04:54,320 --> 01:04:57,719month, which is about two hundredand fifty miles a week. Now,93201:04:58,440 --> 01:05:01,320in my Testla, I get aboutone hundred eighty miles on a full charge.93301:05:01,800 --> 01:05:05,159They only want you to use aboutseventy percent of the battery for the93401:05:05,159 --> 01:05:08,679life of the batter so it's aboutone hundred and twenty five miles, So93501:05:08,719 --> 01:05:11,079you get about one hundred and twentyfive miles and you're driving two hundred and93601:05:11,079 --> 01:05:14,559fifty miles a week. Don't tellme. Range doesn't matter if you don't93701:05:14,599 --> 01:05:17,760have a home charger. About twomonths into this thing, you're gonna want93801:05:17,800 --> 01:05:21,199to put a gun to your head. Is that you're going to these charging93901:05:21,280 --> 01:05:29,320stations every three or four days andspending forty five minutes to an hour every94001:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,960three to four days. If youhad a gasoline car that would only go94101:05:33,000 --> 01:05:35,880one hundred and twenty five miles andthen you'd have to stop at the gas94201:05:35,880 --> 01:05:40,840bump, you would get rid ofthat thing so fast. Now, I94301:05:40,880 --> 01:05:43,840will say that if you're going toget an electric vehicle, the number one94401:05:43,880 --> 01:05:45,760thing you need is a home charger. You've got to have a home charger.94501:05:45,880 --> 01:05:48,960Without a home charger, it makesno sense at all. Number two,94601:05:49,360 --> 01:05:53,800you need to think of this asyou're a round town car. Now,94701:05:53,840 --> 01:05:56,800can you take it out on theroad. Absolutely. I have friends94801:05:56,800 --> 01:06:00,000that go to take theirs to SanDiego. I have friends that have taken94901:06:00,119 --> 01:06:03,159to Pinetop to Albuquerque. I hadanother friend that took his on a five95001:06:03,239 --> 01:06:08,760thousand miles trip. But I'm tellingyou that every one hundred and fifty miles95101:06:08,840 --> 01:06:12,599or so, you're gonna have tostop and spend anywhere from forty five minutes95201:06:12,639 --> 01:06:16,480to an hour charging that battery.So if you're going to San Diego,95301:06:16,559 --> 01:06:20,840just as an example, first stopHell of Bend. You're spending forty five95401:06:20,840 --> 01:06:25,239minutes to an hour in hell ofBend, then Yuma, forty five minutes95501:06:25,239 --> 01:06:29,599to an hour in Yuma, thenEl Centro, y El Centro because you're95601:06:29,599 --> 01:06:32,280about to go up those mountains toget to get over the mountains into San95701:06:32,280 --> 01:06:36,239Diego. Mountains eat your battery upbig time, so you're gonna be spending95801:06:36,599 --> 01:06:41,320forty five minutes to an hour inEl Centro. You're talking about adding two95901:06:41,360 --> 01:06:46,599to three hours to a trip justto San Diego in the real world,96001:06:46,599 --> 01:06:49,400I don't think most people want todo that. Most people don't have the96101:06:49,519 --> 01:06:54,519time. The other big problem withtaking an electric vehicle out on the road96201:06:54,719 --> 01:06:58,920they don't have a spare tire.How about that they've got two trunks and96301:06:59,039 --> 01:07:03,039no spare tire. Whose brilliant ideawas that they're thinking was that only fifteen96401:07:03,119 --> 01:07:09,440percent of cars ever have a flattire, So why why why put a96501:07:09,519 --> 01:07:12,960spare time? I'm thinking, youknow what if you took your car to96601:07:14,280 --> 01:07:19,440the White Mountains and you were comingdown into the Salt River Valley and you96701:07:19,519 --> 01:07:25,039had a flat tire. You're gonnabe sitting there for a while before Tesla96801:07:25,159 --> 01:07:29,239roadside assistance gets to you, likemaybe two hours in hundred degree weather.96901:07:29,480 --> 01:07:31,599You can't sit in your car becauseyou're gonna eat up your battery. Right,97001:07:31,679 --> 01:07:36,559So I just think it's really ifyou're taking the car out on the97101:07:36,679 --> 01:07:40,440road, it's a leap of faith. It's a leap of faith. So97201:07:40,559 --> 01:07:43,679think of it as your round towncar. Like I said, I find97301:07:43,679 --> 01:07:45,400it odd that a car with twotrunks doesn't have a spare tire. But97401:07:45,920 --> 01:07:49,760that was a real shocker to mewhen when I got it. Stuff every97501:07:49,800 --> 01:07:54,320day about the electric cars. I'mtelling I'm having a I'm having more fun97601:07:54,400 --> 01:07:57,679with a car than a person shouldhave, right, But it is not97701:07:57,800 --> 01:08:00,599without issues. You have to understandthese. Not Number one is before you97801:08:00,639 --> 01:08:04,320buy get an electric car, youhave got to have a home charging thing.97901:08:04,360 --> 01:08:06,880That's gonna cost you a thousand andfifteen hundred bucks to get that set98001:08:06,920 --> 01:08:11,199up. Yeah, I want tokind of switch gears. We talked about98101:08:11,360 --> 01:08:15,199that federal employees. We do witha lot of federal employees here we do98201:08:15,239 --> 01:08:16,880the whole financial planning. But ifyou are a federal employee, you do98301:08:16,960 --> 01:08:20,039know you kind of have a nichein the sense of how your retirement works.98401:08:20,399 --> 01:08:23,960You're the few that still have pensions, and they are do have good98501:08:24,000 --> 01:08:26,720pensions that you have to active militaryhave a pension. If you're on the98601:08:26,760 --> 01:08:30,439civilian side, you'll have a pension. You have the health benefits, you98701:08:30,520 --> 01:08:33,640have the Fegley. It's all different. It's all subjected to the federal employees98801:08:33,680 --> 01:08:38,079only it's different, and it's butwhat we can do, what we help98901:08:38,119 --> 01:08:40,359with a lot, and what's beenhelping is a new program that we've been99001:08:40,439 --> 01:08:43,880using. The financial planning still worksthe same in the sense that it does99101:08:43,960 --> 01:08:47,319help the federal employee retirement plan tokind of get the idea of where they'll99201:08:47,359 --> 01:08:49,800be when they do retire, andwe're able to kind if you don't have99301:08:49,880 --> 01:08:55,239your estimates for your pension, wecan get a rough estimate. Obviously we99401:08:55,279 --> 01:08:58,880don't have the exact high three yearsthat you'll have if you're ten years out99501:08:58,880 --> 01:09:00,680from retirement, but we can getkind of a rust eftimation and we can99601:09:00,720 --> 01:09:04,199give you an idea of where yourretirement will be if you are a federal99701:09:04,199 --> 01:09:08,159employee. The other thing, too, is the Fegley Dylan. You know99801:09:08,199 --> 01:09:11,960how expensive that. They don't realizehow expensive it gets as they get more.99901:09:12,199 --> 01:09:16,359Yeah, what we've learned is whenyou retire Fegley, premium skyrocket the100001:09:16,399 --> 01:09:20,279Federal Health Benefits FHB. A lotof people keep that because those are very100101:09:20,279 --> 01:09:23,800good benefits. Or if you havethe VA or you have the trcare,100201:09:24,359 --> 01:09:26,600tend to keep that because those aregood benefits. You don't want to ever100301:09:26,600 --> 01:09:30,119get rid of those. But FegleyLife insurance, just those premiums just increased,100401:09:30,119 --> 01:09:33,279probably they almost triple sometimes and alot of people at that time don't100501:09:33,279 --> 01:09:41,760even need life insurance anymore. Federalemployed government life insurance. Yeah, yeah,100601:09:41,800 --> 01:09:45,600it's a life insurance. It's alife insurance plan for it's federally employee100701:09:45,600 --> 01:09:47,199government life insurance. Yeah, okay, and you pay a premium on that.100801:09:47,239 --> 01:09:51,039And then but as you get older, obviously it's more expensive. People100901:09:51,079 --> 01:09:54,840don't realize how much it's gonna go. So what it does, what it101001:09:54,920 --> 01:09:57,920Fegley does is the premium doesn't reallygo up too much as you're working,101101:09:57,920 --> 01:10:00,560even if you're sixty five. Itwon't go up too much. But then101201:10:00,840 --> 01:10:05,279you retire at sixty five, thatnext time we'll just explode universal life then,101301:10:05,399 --> 01:10:09,560is that what it is? It'sall it is. But what they're101401:10:09,560 --> 01:10:12,640saying, Yeah, a lot ofpeople get rid of it because it's not101501:10:12,640 --> 01:10:15,039worth it. And a lot ofpeople don't even need life insurance at the101601:10:15,039 --> 01:10:16,560time they get it when they startworking for the FEDS when they're twenty five101701:10:16,720 --> 01:10:19,720thirty. But by the time they'resixty five, they don't actually need to101801:10:19,760 --> 01:10:24,319have the need for life insurance anymore. And if they do, we look101901:10:24,319 --> 01:10:26,760to get them term or something likethat because a lot cheaper and a lot102001:10:26,760 --> 01:10:30,159more straightforward. Rather than him,they save a lot of money. Ideally,102101:10:30,199 --> 01:10:31,680if you get older, the onlyreason you would have life insurance just102201:10:31,720 --> 01:10:39,039for a state planning, and alot of what we see is they don't102301:10:39,119 --> 01:10:42,960need life insurance. Right. Thewhole idea is, once you hit retirement,102401:10:43,279 --> 01:10:45,600you're dependent on yourself. That's it. You're not you don't have your102501:10:45,640 --> 01:10:49,199kids that are depending on you.You don't have your you know, hopefully102601:10:49,199 --> 01:10:53,600not, but let's face how manypeople we deal with that still have the102701:10:53,720 --> 01:10:57,199kids. Uh, asking for money? The only reason you have life insurance102801:10:57,319 --> 01:11:00,279is someone's depending on your income.If you have already a nest egg that102901:11:00,279 --> 01:11:03,159you've built, w really don't needlife in And a lot of federal employees103001:11:03,199 --> 01:11:06,680have the survivor benefits where their spousewill get if they do one hundred percent103101:11:08,279 --> 01:11:13,159of the survivor benefit, they'll getfifty of their pension when they pass away.103201:11:13,239 --> 01:11:15,079But if the house isn't paid off, they want to keep the insurance103301:11:15,600 --> 01:11:18,880for the spouse, Okay, becauseif that way it pays off the house.103401:11:18,920 --> 01:11:21,479Well, that's that's what the wholewhat he was talking about with you103501:11:21,520 --> 01:11:26,399still get the pension, you stillget the spouse of soul security, so103601:11:26,680 --> 01:11:29,439you have the other thing though youhave to look at a lot of people103701:11:29,479 --> 01:11:32,840make the mistake and they take thebiggest pension rather than the second to die103801:11:32,880 --> 01:11:36,439pension, right exactly, So youwant to look at the benefit survivor side103901:11:36,439 --> 01:11:40,960of things too. Exactly. It'sa pretty complex retirement plan, but we104001:11:41,000 --> 01:11:43,840can we become you can simplify itfor you guys. If you come in104101:11:43,880 --> 01:11:46,000and we go through everything with you. We do step by step and we104201:11:46,079 --> 01:11:49,399take our time with it and weexplain how everything's going to work for you104301:11:49,439 --> 01:11:51,600when you do. We've been dealingwith this one about the last five years104401:11:51,640 --> 01:11:56,079or so three years now. Yeah. The biggest thing is when you have104501:11:56,159 --> 01:11:59,279something laid out in front of you, a roadmac, you know where the104601:11:59,319 --> 01:12:01,520income's coming from. That's what givesyou the real peace of mind. Have104701:12:01,680 --> 01:12:05,159you gives you that security through retirementand that's really what you need. All104801:12:05,199 --> 01:12:08,600right, and you speak the language. All right, we gotta go,104901:12:08,680 --> 01:12:10,880We gotta go, but take abreak, you know that. All right,105001:12:10,880 --> 01:12:13,760We'll be right back. Thanks forlistening and call us be part of105101:12:13,800 --> 01:12:15,319it. Look at a website.Do whatever you need to do. We're105201:12:15,399 --> 01:12:21,079here for you. It's Money MatterShow. Welcome back to the Money Matter105301:12:21,119 --> 01:12:25,079Show. My name is Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Dave105401:12:25,159 --> 01:12:29,760Sherwood and my man's Dean. He'sback, yes, and like think never105501:12:29,960 --> 01:12:31,680left. I could have done thisshow from any country you wanted me to.105601:12:32,840 --> 01:12:35,760I wanted to do it all yourselves. It's fine. And the enterty105701:12:35,800 --> 01:12:41,680part about it is you really werein the office every day in a way105801:12:41,720 --> 01:12:45,520of speaking, right, well,it's it's kind of crazy how you can105901:12:45,600 --> 01:12:47,239be anywhere in the world now,yes, and do business it's just a106001:12:47,279 --> 01:12:50,520different time. It was like threeto ten, three and afternoon to ten106101:12:50,600 --> 01:12:54,279at night, you know. Andwe have a we have a new log106201:12:54,359 --> 01:12:58,680in situation with our clearing from OURBCwhere you can log into any computer in106301:12:58,720 --> 01:13:02,399the world and have yours. Youhave your trading screen right in front of106401:13:02,399 --> 01:13:05,760you. Yep. As quite incredible, just amazing. You know, we106501:13:05,840 --> 01:13:11,119talked about the inflation a little bitin the past segments. It's really interesting106601:13:11,199 --> 01:13:15,079right now the Fed Funds effective rateis now around you know, five point106701:13:15,399 --> 01:13:20,720eight percent the CPI, the coreCPI has finally fell below that rate,106801:13:21,000 --> 01:13:24,520and so we're waiting for that.We've been waiting. That's when you should106901:13:24,560 --> 01:13:27,840see a real big drop in inflation. We're already seeing big drops. I107001:13:27,840 --> 01:13:30,760mean, we went from three pointnine to three. This last reading should107101:13:30,880 --> 01:13:34,199see probably another big drop. Theone thing that we continue to say is107201:13:34,199 --> 01:13:40,520housing, the biggest component of theCPI is actually increasing year over year.107301:13:40,960 --> 01:13:45,319You know, you wouldn't expect tosee this with mortgage rates being so high107401:13:45,319 --> 01:13:48,960and increasing over double in over ayear's period. But again we talk about107501:13:48,960 --> 01:13:53,960the inventory there. It was abig housing reports this week exactly what you're107601:13:53,960 --> 01:13:58,000talking about. Listings are twenty fivepercent below last year, and the lack107701:13:58,039 --> 01:14:01,960of supply is driving the price.Prices in fifty percent of the nation's largest107801:14:02,000 --> 01:14:06,359markets have either returned to their peakor gone above their peak. Yeah,107901:14:06,359 --> 01:14:11,920fifty percent of the markets. Andthat's forty two of the CPI exactly.108001:14:11,960 --> 01:14:15,439And you know, I have aconnection to the housing market and the new108101:14:15,479 --> 01:14:19,920home by the new home sellers arestill offering great deals in terms of buying108201:14:19,960 --> 01:14:25,640down rates, helping people make paymentsthat are more attractive to them. And108301:14:25,680 --> 01:14:30,359so from a new home buyer standpoint, I mean they've been doing great,108401:14:30,800 --> 01:14:34,560they really have. And it's saythat prices are weaker in areas that were108501:14:34,800 --> 01:14:39,680that benefited from the pandemic, andcertainly Phoenix and two Sound would be two108601:14:39,680 --> 01:14:44,239of those, Yeah, Phoenix.More so. The experience I'm seeing through108701:14:44,239 --> 01:14:47,880my other son, Matthew, isthey keep getting out bid on houses because108801:14:47,920 --> 01:14:51,680there's no inventory. All I'm sayingis the new, the new that doesn't108901:14:51,760 --> 01:14:57,880existing homes new house, yeah,new new are home, yes, Yeah,109001:14:57,920 --> 01:15:01,319But I had any homecome on themarket in my neighborhood, which very109101:15:01,359 --> 01:15:04,600there's only seventeen homes in my neighborhood. So yeah, but we've told us109201:15:04,600 --> 01:15:08,920about three now in the last year. Come no, no, this is109301:15:08,960 --> 01:15:12,840the first sale that's taken place inprobably three or four years. And I109401:15:12,960 --> 01:15:15,239was the same house then that youkeep talking it was. It was a109501:15:15,359 --> 01:15:18,800full, full price sale twenty fourhours. Yeah, so you're right,109601:15:18,840 --> 01:15:21,760Dean. Yeah, well, there'sother people that my other son put an109701:15:21,760 --> 01:15:27,000offer in. They literally want tolook at another house on the they didn't109801:15:27,000 --> 01:15:29,880like it. On their way home, they saw this thing pop up a109901:15:29,920 --> 01:15:31,520news listing, so, oh,this looks good, let's go to it.110001:15:32,000 --> 01:15:35,399The people are actually there. Theygave an offer before they left the110101:15:35,439 --> 01:15:40,159house. Okay, ye did,right, So it was like forty five110201:15:40,239 --> 01:15:45,000minutes. So he's called two hoursafter they were done, two hours after110301:15:45,039 --> 01:15:47,479they put it on. They gavehim an offer and they basically said,110401:15:47,520 --> 01:15:49,359listen, I don't want to haggle, I don't want to do stuff like110501:15:49,399 --> 01:15:51,800that. This is what I wantto do. I'll give you. It110601:15:51,840 --> 01:15:56,520was a fifteen thousand dollars over andI want you to buy it down for110701:15:56,880 --> 01:16:00,760you know, half of that.He offered them fifteen thousands more than the110801:16:00,800 --> 01:16:02,920list price. Yeah, he wastarry to get down and concessions and stuff.110901:16:02,920 --> 01:16:05,720So and then he gets concessions,which is the way a lot of111001:16:05,720 --> 01:16:12,000people are doing it now because thenit helps you uh um taxwie yeah um.111101:16:12,079 --> 01:16:15,520But and then they call they acceptedthe offer. I think the bottom111201:16:15,560 --> 01:16:18,920line is is they were a family, they had little kids. They showed111301:16:19,000 --> 01:16:23,199up with the two year old.They hit it off great, and they111401:16:23,199 --> 01:16:26,239say, yeah, this is perfect. So they bought a house. Yeah,111501:16:26,279 --> 01:16:28,439it's a crazy how long it's beenon there. I mean they it111601:16:28,560 --> 01:16:30,560was listed an hour and I'm hearingabout it for the first time on the111701:16:30,640 --> 01:16:33,560radio. This happened last night atten forty five days Okay, okay,111801:16:34,039 --> 01:16:38,079so that yeah, I feel alittle bit. Everybody, Okay, that's111901:16:38,159 --> 01:16:41,359kind. And it's only a blockaway from Dylan. That's the amazing for112001:16:41,760 --> 01:16:44,680really, Yeah, it's like twominutes for me. Holy account. Our112101:16:44,720 --> 01:16:46,680neighbors. It's cool. I've heardof green Acres, but not Greenberg Acres.112201:16:49,199 --> 01:16:51,640They can walk to each other's house. Now, Oh that's amazing.112301:16:51,800 --> 01:16:55,880Yeah, that's amazing. And becausehe went visited your house and said this112401:16:55,920 --> 01:16:58,800is cool, and I like thisneighborhood and no, no, it's completely112501:16:58,920 --> 01:17:00,960a neighborhood. I had to doit two streets over from him. Just112601:17:01,000 --> 01:17:05,279totally different. Yeah, completely random. Wow, right time. And you112701:17:05,319 --> 01:17:08,640know, we hear a lot ofpeople talking about the US dollar and how112801:17:08,640 --> 01:17:12,720the US dollars under pressure. Andyou know, we talked about this last112901:17:12,760 --> 01:17:16,039week, Todd. I saw anotherad on TV where this very sincere sounded113001:17:16,119 --> 01:17:21,479lady said, I bought gold toprotect it from protect myself from the declining113101:17:21,520 --> 01:17:27,560dollar. In the last twelve years, gold is unchanged and the dollars up113201:17:27,640 --> 01:17:31,239thirty three percent. I'm not surehow goal is going to protect her.113301:17:31,319 --> 01:17:35,840The other thing everyone's worried about isa centralized currency, a digital currency.113401:17:35,880 --> 01:17:40,079Yeah, come, okay, andI have a call this week, and113501:17:40,279 --> 01:17:42,760this is how I explained it tohim. I said, listen, it's113601:17:42,760 --> 01:17:46,640gonna happen at some time. Oddgeneration, it's gonna put it on hold113701:17:46,640 --> 01:17:49,920for a while. Okay, westill like cash, we don't trust the113801:17:49,960 --> 01:17:55,680government anything else. But at theyounger generation, they're already there. They113901:17:55,680 --> 01:17:58,239don't have cash, they don't evenknow what cash is for the most part,114001:17:58,279 --> 01:18:00,159certainly don't have checking account Okay,checking accounts. I guess they have114101:18:00,239 --> 01:18:03,520ben Moo, they have zell,they have credit cards, which are connected114201:18:03,560 --> 01:18:06,640to checking accounts. Guys come out, you need you need to have account.114301:18:09,840 --> 01:18:12,359I mean, I cannot tell youthe number of people are running into114401:18:12,439 --> 01:18:15,000the don't ever write checks ever,no write and checks and being connected to114501:18:15,079 --> 01:18:17,960who would write I know, it'sit's a dying breede. Yeah, you114601:18:18,000 --> 01:18:23,319definitely to write. They don't haveto give you checks anymore. I know,114701:18:23,560 --> 01:18:26,039having a check, you gotta haveit. You gotta have an account,114801:18:26,159 --> 01:18:29,680yeah that you can get it andall that. But they won't mind114901:18:29,760 --> 01:18:32,880digital currency because they're already there right. They don't want to carry it around.115001:18:33,079 --> 01:18:35,279So it's gonna take some time,and it's some time, it'll be115101:18:35,319 --> 01:18:39,600there. Yeah. Can they bebig problems from there? They could be115201:18:39,600 --> 01:18:43,039big problems. Now the US canshut down your account now. Yeah,115301:18:43,159 --> 01:18:45,560that's exactly what I'm gonna say.I mean, we already are in a115401:18:45,640 --> 01:18:50,399pseudo electronic coin currency. I mean, when when they print money or the115501:18:50,640 --> 01:18:54,840Federal Reserve, if they're giving aloan to a bank to help them out,115601:18:55,039 --> 01:18:58,880they're not sending them dollars, they'rejust putting credits in their balance sheet115701:18:58,920 --> 01:19:01,920and so they can loan that out. It's all electronic based right now.115801:19:02,119 --> 01:19:04,800I mean, everything is electronol,you know. So you want a fun115901:19:04,920 --> 01:19:08,560fact, I do, and thisis one I think we can all relate116001:19:08,560 --> 01:19:13,159to. Okay, the average consumerspends ninety one dollars a month on Amazon.116101:19:13,960 --> 01:19:17,399It's that's every right. States wherefolks spend the most on Amazon are116201:19:17,439 --> 01:19:21,039kind of interesting. They're that statesI would have expected. The number one116301:19:21,079 --> 01:19:26,399state that spends the most money onAmazon is Tennessee. Well that's close.116401:19:26,640 --> 01:19:29,760Yeah, no, that's very good. Dean Tennessee's number one. Number two116501:19:29,920 --> 01:19:32,960Delaware, I think probably probably theBidens have something that I don't know.116601:19:33,159 --> 01:19:36,960Number three, Wisconsin, four Iowa, five, Washington. The states just116701:19:38,079 --> 01:19:43,520spend the least. West Virginia.I get that economically depressed area. I116801:19:43,560 --> 01:19:46,600get that um Daota hard to getto those mountain homes, I guess.116901:19:46,640 --> 01:19:50,680But Minnesota that's kind of an oddone one. Well except besides Minneapolis area,117001:19:50,720 --> 01:19:55,039it's pretty small towns and stuff.Well, so South Dakota and North117101:19:55,079 --> 01:19:58,119Dakota they're not on the list.At least they got well, they can't117201:19:58,159 --> 01:20:01,279get out of the house, sothey just call it. Indiana was third,117301:20:01,319 --> 01:20:04,960Missouri fourth, main fifth. Arizonadid not make either lists, so117401:20:05,000 --> 01:20:11,760apparently we're pretty average. We're probablyspending ninety one dollars per husbands. There's117501:20:11,800 --> 01:20:15,039no way that's all they're spending.I'm thinking that's an Amazon package a day.117601:20:15,079 --> 01:20:17,359I'm thinking the same thing, fourdollars or ten dollars. But there117701:20:17,359 --> 01:20:23,840are there probably are people out therewho don't use Amazon. I don't know117801:20:23,920 --> 01:20:26,479them. I wouldn't know one personthat doesn't. You know, no,117901:20:26,640 --> 01:20:29,760And there's hardly a day goes bythe Amazon's not of my house. There's118001:20:29,800 --> 01:20:32,119more not a ninety one dollars atmy house. It's just easy and your118101:20:32,119 --> 01:20:36,720house, dudan, Right, Ijust said that, between all of them,118201:20:36,760 --> 01:20:41,760this is the kind of world we'reliving in. Todd. Shopify jumped118301:20:41,840 --> 01:20:46,239five percent on Thursday after their CEOannounced plans for an AI assistant tool.118401:20:46,640 --> 01:20:50,920That's all he did, no details, just they're gonna have an AI assistant118501:20:50,960 --> 01:20:55,960tool. Stock goes up five percent. Sounds a lot like the dot com118601:20:55,960 --> 01:21:00,479bubbles, all right. Anytime thereis AI mentioned, just jumps because then118701:21:00,520 --> 01:21:03,199they think about the future for thenext ten years. And the Microsoft.118801:21:03,239 --> 01:21:08,199Microsoft had a big day on Fridayafter they entered the cyber security business.118901:21:08,239 --> 01:21:12,399Now they're already an AI, butit was also Activision. Now they're gonna119001:21:12,439 --> 01:21:15,960be well the no. Earlier inthe week. Earlier in the week they119101:21:16,000 --> 01:21:20,800got a pop because a judge ruledthat they could take over Activision. And119201:21:20,920 --> 01:21:25,119then on Friday though, what theysaid is they're gonna give them ninety days119301:21:25,199 --> 01:21:30,439more to give them the information touh that they need to to allow them119401:21:30,439 --> 01:21:33,640to do it. That's because thef FTC appealed Friday. They filed their119501:21:33,680 --> 01:21:39,520appeal right and then, and theBritish government is still on record as being119601:21:39,560 --> 01:21:43,000against it. They won't they won'tallow it. Two American companies, why119701:21:43,079 --> 01:21:45,800why are they even involved? Right? Also, like the FDC, their119801:21:45,840 --> 01:21:49,840track records getting really bad. Rightnow, they're gonna win? Are they119901:21:49,840 --> 01:21:53,600gonna win? Something? Like Isaid in my monologue, the one thing120001:21:53,680 --> 01:21:57,199of all the countries that I wentto they have in common. They do120101:21:57,279 --> 01:22:00,000not like the government. They don'ttrust the government, and they hate them120201:22:00,000 --> 01:22:03,119IDA and they think it's biased.Yeah. I just was puzzled at how120301:22:04,359 --> 01:22:09,680how England's involved in this merger atall. Have you seen the signs around120401:22:09,680 --> 01:22:13,960Pema County about panhandling? No,they're all over Pema County, talked about120501:22:14,000 --> 01:22:17,800you know people about yeah, yes, don't support panhandlers, right, instead,120601:22:17,880 --> 01:22:21,560support the agencies that help people whoare down under the luck. I120701:22:21,560 --> 01:22:25,560think I think it's an attempt totry to cut down on some of the120801:22:25,600 --> 01:22:28,680panhandley hopefully, yeah, and thehomeless and stuff and go to a place120901:22:28,680 --> 01:22:30,159as place as they can go,right because the City of Two Sound won't121001:22:30,159 --> 01:22:34,079do anything about it. They're youknow, they're tree hugging whatever. But121101:22:34,279 --> 01:22:39,359Pema County has had made it illegalyears ago. You can't panhandle in Pema121201:22:39,399 --> 01:22:43,239County years ago. But City ofTwo Sound is still running rampant. I121301:22:43,239 --> 01:22:46,479wonder if those signs will Being thatwe've already talked about the navjacary balancing on121401:22:46,560 --> 01:22:49,880the twenty fourth before they open,this is going to be really interesting to121501:22:49,880 --> 01:22:54,560watch over the next few days.What kind of an impact that has on121601:22:54,600 --> 01:22:58,720the Magnificent seventeen, if if anyat all. Um So, maybe that's121701:22:58,760 --> 01:23:01,119when the video fell so much.Who knows well. So often we have121801:23:01,239 --> 01:23:04,239to come up to these events likethis and we say, boy, it's121901:23:04,239 --> 01:23:09,119really gonna this is gonna happen.That's gonna happen, and nothing. If122001:23:09,159 --> 01:23:12,720it does happen, it's an opportunityof the money some of the shares that122101:23:12,760 --> 01:23:15,319you took off. As we've beentalking about the last couple weeks, I'm122201:23:15,319 --> 01:23:17,640buy back in if the video droppedback on the four hundred United I mean,122301:23:18,159 --> 01:23:19,920when I get back in a littlebit. Yeah, No, I122401:23:20,319 --> 01:23:24,119think that would be a very attractivebecause again, if it's gonna happen,122501:23:24,199 --> 01:23:30,720it's happening because the forcing selling rightright the The The drop though on Friday122601:23:30,760 --> 01:23:34,479was was pretty pretty stunning in thelast couple of hours in Feuter. Yeah,122701:23:35,560 --> 01:23:39,600right after it hit all the timehigh on Friday. It is absolutely122801:23:39,600 --> 01:23:42,159it's going over. It went up. It went algorithms, I did it.122901:23:42,199 --> 01:23:45,640I went up twenty points on Thursdayand twenty points on Friday. You123001:23:45,680 --> 01:23:48,680saw this with Tesla. They everyone'sraising their talkings with five hundred to five123101:23:48,800 --> 01:23:51,720fifty. Yeah, that means it'sgonna blow by five fifty at some time123201:23:51,760 --> 01:23:56,239and probably go to six fifty sevenhundred. They are selling these chips at123301:23:56,279 --> 01:24:00,439ten thousand dollars. There's no competition. The next three or four part is123401:24:00,800 --> 01:24:03,640they're gonna just keep showing great numbersand growth. I agree. And if123501:24:03,680 --> 01:24:06,760you and one of the analysts saidthat you either have to be on this123601:24:06,880 --> 01:24:12,840train or you're gonna get left behind. Right, and but again, cautious,123701:24:12,439 --> 01:24:15,399caucious and you know, and you'llhave opportunities. Don't go don't go123801:24:15,399 --> 01:24:19,600out there a Monday and buy aten percent position in the Nvidia. It's123901:24:19,640 --> 01:24:23,800just not not the way to doit. It's not cautious. No,124001:24:23,880 --> 01:24:26,840it's not cautious. And it's likeDeans at the time. It's a time124101:24:26,880 --> 01:24:30,439to be cautious. It's a timeto be defensive. Right, yep.124201:24:30,800 --> 01:24:36,119Remember FED employees. As Dylan said, we know what's going on with do124301:24:36,199 --> 01:24:40,239retirement plants. We've been working witha lot of them. We've been putting124401:24:40,279 --> 01:24:43,920on semin odds, we're doing workshops, we sit down, We're doing a124501:24:44,039 --> 01:24:46,199tire thing for you. Even ifyou got five years ago, ten years124601:24:46,239 --> 01:24:49,199ago, we will help them.We'll be back with some money by the124701:24:49,239 --> 01:24:59,640show. We're back. It's somemoney by the show. This is the124801:24:59,800 --> 01:25:02,399green Burg I got Dave, Igot Dylan, I got Todd. Uh.124901:25:02,880 --> 01:25:05,680You want more of this, justgo to Dean Greenberg Money Managers with125001:25:05,720 --> 01:25:13,720Dean Greenberg Podcast, our website oror iHeartRadio. You can pick it up.125101:25:14,359 --> 01:25:17,920We keep the back ones on there, um and um all chive to125201:25:17,960 --> 01:25:20,560any more than welcome to look atit. There's a lot of stuff on125301:25:20,560 --> 01:25:24,680our website. Go to it.It helps with your planning. It gives125401:25:24,680 --> 01:25:27,880you some ideas about who we are, what we do. And you'll be125501:25:27,920 --> 01:25:32,760seeing a new employee that just passedhis test. I'll let Todd introduce him.125601:25:32,960 --> 01:25:39,119Uh yeah, his name is SebastianBorsini. Recently passed his Series sixty125701:25:39,119 --> 01:25:42,520five, already got his SIE.So he'll be joining the team as a125801:25:42,560 --> 01:25:45,399registered advisor. Very happy to havehim. Great addition to the team and125901:25:45,600 --> 01:25:48,960the only bad thing about him isthe U a graduate. But other than126001:25:49,000 --> 01:25:54,279that, Todd, I think you'rethe one that has I wouldn't. I126101:25:54,279 --> 01:25:58,319can't believe you just let everyone knowyour AESO Go Devils. Yeah, well126201:25:58,359 --> 01:26:00,680all that ain't gonna happen. Yeah, more WILDCAF fans here. So you126301:26:01,840 --> 01:26:06,199go? Where where did the devilsgo? So there you go, Dad,126401:26:06,239 --> 01:26:11,239that's my response to here. AlthoughI'm not a grad deals now do126501:26:11,279 --> 01:26:13,800you have a grad? D's nowdo you have a grad? We live126601:26:13,880 --> 01:26:17,119here, grew up here. Yeah, we support our community. Bruins Go126701:26:17,279 --> 01:26:21,079Devils. But it's good and youknow, you know, a model is126801:26:21,079 --> 01:26:26,119bringing on young people training and beingpart of the deal for the next two126901:26:26,199 --> 01:26:30,039three five years, understanding what we'redoing. And you don't throw him into127001:26:30,079 --> 01:26:31,279a fire. So you know downthe road here you're gonna hear him on127101:26:31,319 --> 01:26:34,359the radio. We'll give him somestuff to do and some ideas. Very127201:26:34,359 --> 01:26:39,479smart kid graduated well, passed itstests on the first one. Um,127301:26:39,560 --> 01:26:42,479and it's excited. So you knowthat's the idea. Now, you know,127401:26:42,800 --> 01:26:46,279I want I want young people thatwant to learn and learn the right127501:26:46,319 --> 01:26:49,199way. And the client always comesfirst. It's not about how much money127601:26:49,199 --> 01:26:51,760they put in their pocket. Andthey have a good time. So we're127701:26:51,880 --> 01:26:56,479very happy to have some basketball seiningwith us. And uh, here's the127801:26:56,479 --> 01:27:00,119best part. He speaks fluent Spanish. Yes he does. Okay, So127901:27:00,119 --> 01:27:02,319in a society that we live here, if if that's the case and somebody128001:27:02,399 --> 01:27:05,159needs that, and we've had alot of some people come in and you128101:27:05,199 --> 01:27:09,520know, um, it's a it'sa little Barrie. I can get through128201:27:09,560 --> 01:27:13,600it like I did in Portugal,but there's no way I can make them128301:27:13,600 --> 01:27:17,359feel comfortable enough. Now who absolutelywill do that? So if you if128401:27:17,359 --> 01:27:20,479you, if if you want tohave done in Spanish, We haven't.128501:27:20,520 --> 01:27:23,399We have somebody that could do itfor you know, we have a really128601:27:23,479 --> 01:27:27,880unique team here where we have theexperience with the gray hairs over here,128701:27:27,960 --> 01:27:31,520right, I don't have gray hair. You have gray hairs. Yeah,128801:27:31,560 --> 01:27:34,119well, don't talk about my bead, talking about the head and I don't128901:27:34,159 --> 01:27:36,720have gray hair. You have somegray hairs gone, that's old, gray129001:27:36,760 --> 01:27:43,800went white? How long ago twothousand and two? Really pointing we got129101:27:43,880 --> 01:27:46,880we got over eighty years of experiencewith these two and then us three coming129201:27:46,960 --> 01:27:51,079up following in the footsteps. Wehave not only the experience but the longevity.129301:27:51,119 --> 01:27:56,199We hear so many times with peoplecoming in, how long is is129401:27:56,239 --> 01:27:59,239Dean gonna keep working? Right?Well, then they don't know me.129501:27:59,279 --> 01:28:00,239Then if they don't, they thinkI'm about well, I take them some129601:28:00,319 --> 01:28:04,279time off and go have fun inmy life. Absolutely, let's say said129701:28:04,279 --> 01:28:06,840it doesn't been the way you are. I go on the computer, I129801:28:06,880 --> 01:28:11,560have phone calls. I spoke toclients all to see the right and a129901:28:11,560 --> 01:28:14,479lot of people they talk with theiradvisor and they're like, he's he's kind130001:28:14,520 --> 01:28:16,159of getting he's as old as Iam. Like what happens. If my130101:28:16,239 --> 01:28:19,920advisor dies, you have to buya new one, right. And that's130201:28:19,920 --> 01:28:23,560why it's nice to have a teamwhere you're not relying on just one person.130301:28:24,159 --> 01:28:27,479You have a whole team working foryou. That's the difference between us130401:28:27,479 --> 01:28:30,960and a lot of places where yougo, well, and Dylan's a junior130501:28:30,000 --> 01:28:33,960dean and you're a junior sure Wooden. And then we got we're not sure130601:28:34,000 --> 01:28:41,960words of Ashton fish yet, buta junior sue right. Uh yeah,130701:28:41,960 --> 01:28:44,680Hey, we haven't talked about Chinaat all, and what's going on over130801:28:44,720 --> 01:28:47,520there that the uh, they continueto slow, their economy continued to slow.130901:28:47,760 --> 01:28:50,800They continue to struggle to come outof the pandemic. Uh, you131001:28:50,800 --> 01:28:57,439know they've been they've been three yearsof lockdown, which was ridiculous, and131101:28:57,520 --> 01:29:00,880they're still struggling to come out ofBut they reducer prices sank five point four131201:29:00,920 --> 01:29:05,239percent last month. We're talking aboutour producer prices being up less than they131301:29:05,279 --> 01:29:10,520expected, up less expect there's dropfive point four percent. And not only131401:29:10,600 --> 01:29:14,600that, but it's the ninth consecutivemonth it declines, the steepest decline in131501:29:14,720 --> 01:29:19,199eight years in China US trades.This is the funny part about it,131601:29:19,319 --> 01:29:25,119that report came out and the sharesof US traded stocks with exposure to China,131701:29:25,640 --> 01:29:28,880it would be Yum Brands, wouldbe Starbucks, it would be when131801:29:29,119 --> 01:29:32,720Peter Orts would be three. Theyall took off, they all rallied when131901:29:32,720 --> 01:29:36,960that report came out. And I'mthinking why because they think it's bad enough132001:29:38,399 --> 01:29:42,520that the government's gonna have to dostimulus, right, And I could totally132101:29:42,520 --> 01:29:45,479see that out absolutely, and weknow how that worked out for us.132201:29:45,159 --> 01:29:47,319You know, we know how thatworked out for our stock market when the132301:29:47,359 --> 01:29:50,279government started stimulating. Well, that'swhat I was thinking, like, that132401:29:50,399 --> 01:29:55,840might be that one opportunity where andnot a lot of people are talking no132501:29:56,760 --> 01:30:01,000China stocks don't is that? Isit China stocks? Hn etf oh,132601:30:01,279 --> 01:30:03,239I don't know. There's a coupleof them, Yeah, a couple of132701:30:03,279 --> 01:30:05,720them. I don't know. Ican't think what it is. I think132801:30:05,800 --> 01:30:11,840when when we decided to move awayfrom our Chinese exposure, I've seen no132901:30:11,880 --> 01:30:14,920I was gonna say CNP, butyeah, it could be CHC. I133001:30:14,960 --> 01:30:18,399wouldn't really want to buy China intovidual. It was thea is what a133101:30:18,960 --> 01:30:24,600China cf A? That? Butthat alone yeah, I'm talking about he's133201:30:24,600 --> 01:30:29,119talking about the Chinese e TF.I was in it for years. I133301:30:29,159 --> 01:30:32,479traded it for years. But Ican't think what the symbol is um Novavacs.133401:30:32,520 --> 01:30:36,760Have you guys been watching that Novavacsthing? Remember Novavacs was the four133501:30:36,800 --> 01:30:41,520dollars stock before the pandemic, andit went to three hundred and thirty one133601:30:41,560 --> 01:30:45,840dollars. Where'd you come up with? Yeah, c H C h N133701:30:45,399 --> 01:30:48,800China. That makes sense, thatmakes sense. I think there's another one133801:30:48,840 --> 01:30:50,760though. That's good. I rememory wasn't going too bad? Guy?133901:30:50,880 --> 01:30:56,800Is that the blue chip Chinese uhETF Yeah, HNN eleven forty seven to134001:30:56,880 --> 01:30:59,560so. Yeah, anyway, Novavacswas four dollars, it went to three134101:30:59,680 --> 01:31:02,560thirty one, and they finally cameup with a vaccine. This is the134201:31:02,600 --> 01:31:08,239company has never sold anything. Theyfinally came up with a vaccine, and134301:31:08,279 --> 01:31:11,359then then they had to get approvedby the FDA. They had approved by134401:31:11,359 --> 01:31:14,479the FDA, and then they haveto get the manufacturing facility up and running134501:31:14,760 --> 01:31:17,720and it's over, you know.So they went from four dollars to three134601:31:17,720 --> 01:31:20,840dollars, three hundred and thirty onedollars and then back to four dollars.134701:31:21,279 --> 01:31:26,880Guess what, It jumped to ninedollars on Monday on news Canada is going134801:31:26,920 --> 01:31:31,760to pay them three hundred and fiftymillion dollars for unused COVID nineteen vaccines.134901:31:32,359 --> 01:31:39,680Canada is buying unused COVID vaccine forthree hundred and fifty millions. What I135001:31:39,840 --> 01:31:43,640started a museum or what I mean, why wouldn't they It's Canada museum,135101:31:43,760 --> 01:31:48,359or yeah, it's Canada man.But really, there's still so many people135201:31:48,359 --> 01:31:53,279that wear masks overseas. It's unbelievable. Really, Yeah, and especially I135301:31:53,279 --> 01:31:56,960mean, you know, so Isaw some people with double masks. I'm135401:31:57,000 --> 01:32:00,680like, I wanted to laugh,but I didn't let be who they all?135501:32:00,199 --> 01:32:04,000I've got to outside outside the wearingthese oh my god, double mask135601:32:04,079 --> 01:32:09,520outside. It's also like people don'tunderstand like the bacteria, Like you're breathing135701:32:09,640 --> 01:32:13,960in your own air constantly. That'snot good for you. On Asia,135801:32:14,000 --> 01:32:16,720we've we've we've seen mask for foryears and years, but we know why.135901:32:16,880 --> 01:32:20,640Number One, they have pretty badair pollution. Number Two, the136001:32:20,680 --> 01:32:24,920facial identity thing. That's a bigone, which is huge. I think136101:32:25,000 --> 01:32:29,600that's the primary thing, right especiallyin China. Because we know those particles136201:32:29,840 --> 01:32:32,359don't get stopped by the mask.I mean, you see all the time136301:32:32,399 --> 01:32:36,239when people blow their vape through theirmask, all that vape comes out.136401:32:36,760 --> 01:32:40,640If you blow a vape as someone'sface, it's gonna get in that mask.136501:32:41,000 --> 01:32:45,319If you're a medical grade mask,A little different story, isn't it.136601:32:45,880 --> 01:32:48,079Yeah, but you're not talking aboutonly ninety five. No, very136701:32:48,119 --> 01:32:51,079few people actually wear the N ninetyfive. All right, let's wrap this136801:32:51,279 --> 01:32:58,760up with important stuff. Uh,market is rallied a lot. I always136901:32:58,760 --> 01:33:01,560look at things as risk. Weaward strategies. I believe the risk is137001:33:01,560 --> 01:33:04,600greater than the reward. Right now, we need to see a pullback,137101:33:04,640 --> 01:33:09,920so evaluations them so high. Thatmakes more sense to us. That does137201:33:09,960 --> 01:33:13,000not mean you sell everything. Thatmeans you keep your call. But look137301:33:13,000 --> 01:33:16,880at your portfolio and understand you needto mitigate some risks that allows you to137401:33:16,880 --> 01:33:20,720still make money if this thing keepsgetting stretched, but if it already snaps137501:33:20,760 --> 01:33:25,239back, you will obviously will makesome money on the mitigating risk. We137601:33:25,239 --> 01:33:28,279talked about it earlier to show onhow to do it. If you don't,137701:33:28,359 --> 01:33:30,960if you need more, call us, sit down with us. We'll137801:33:30,960 --> 01:33:33,359show you what we do and howwe do it. We're not afraid to137901:33:33,399 --> 01:33:36,279tell you we really not. We'renot hiding anything. We're not trying to138001:33:36,279 --> 01:33:40,800be above you. We learn,we educate, We love to edge.138101:33:40,800 --> 01:33:45,119OK. If we educate you,then you trust us more that you know,138201:33:45,239 --> 01:33:47,439if you know we know. Somany people like to go away above.138301:33:47,680 --> 01:33:50,960So many people want to use fearand tell you just the buy annuities138401:33:50,960 --> 01:33:55,520to buy things that you know,you think look great on the surface,138501:33:55,880 --> 01:33:58,760but they turn out they might notbe great because it's something you don't need.138601:33:59,520 --> 01:34:02,640Go ahead and make sure you havea financial plan. Whether you're thirty,138701:34:03,039 --> 01:34:08,760forty, fifty, sixty, seventyeighty years old, even there's a138801:34:08,760 --> 01:34:12,359plan that you need to look atto make sure that you're going to be138901:34:12,439 --> 01:34:15,520done in the right direction. Butthe sweet spot is fifty to seventy five.139001:34:16,199 --> 01:34:19,079That's the sweet spot that you needa plan and that way you could139101:34:19,079 --> 01:34:21,920make sure that you don't run outof money, that you can live your139201:34:21,960 --> 01:34:29,119life stressless, stress free? Stresslessa word. I don't know that stressless139301:34:29,239 --> 01:34:32,000funds good. I feel like I'mstressless is a word? Pretty sure it's139401:34:32,000 --> 01:34:34,159a word, is it? Idon't know? Stress free sounds good.139501:34:34,279 --> 01:34:40,680I'm able to check myself. Ifact check con you can go on on139601:34:40,720 --> 01:34:43,920our website and you can check outour Google reviews. That's always a good139701:34:43,920 --> 01:34:47,800thing to do. And I betyou there's somebody in your life that deals139801:34:47,800 --> 01:34:53,039with Greenberg Financial. Yeah, ifyou're wanting to know about as we have139901:34:53,159 --> 01:34:57,840nothing to sell here, We don'thave products to sell. We're like deeds.140001:34:57,960 --> 01:35:00,319We're trying to educate. We're tryingto help people. We really truly140101:35:00,399 --> 01:35:03,840are, at the end of theday, trying to do what's the absolute140201:35:03,960 --> 01:35:06,880best thing for you. And ifwe make some money along the way,140301:35:06,880 --> 01:35:10,960that's wonderful. Yeah. I meanthat's not our driver. That's not our140401:35:10,960 --> 01:35:14,000primary driver, Dave, Dave.We have to make money otherwise we're not140501:35:14,039 --> 01:35:16,039in business. Okay, you know, you know, but at the end,140601:35:16,039 --> 01:35:18,640it's the secondary consideration. Because wedo a good job for people,140701:35:18,640 --> 01:35:20,479we're gonna make more. That wasmy point, right, Yeah, that140801:35:20,479 --> 01:35:23,560was my point. We're not.The way it came across is oh,140901:35:23,600 --> 01:35:26,359we don't care about I came acrossperfectly. You just misunderstood it. No,141001:35:26,680 --> 01:35:31,840you know what, that's great,Well, welcome home. Let's get141101:35:31,840 --> 01:35:36,600back in norm around here. Ohman, let's get back. I was141201:35:36,600 --> 01:35:41,000just gonna say, God has givenus all the ability to take care of141301:35:41,039 --> 01:35:44,159these people, giving us the knowledge. That's why we love to do what141401:35:44,199 --> 01:35:46,319we do, because it truly wemake a difference in these people's lives.141501:35:46,399 --> 01:35:49,720And that's all we're trying to dois help. Yeah, you hear so141601:35:49,800 --> 01:35:55,520much about being a what but doshare we I laugh at that because when141701:35:55,720 --> 01:35:58,439eight nineteen eighty eight, when Iset up my company, I sat on141801:35:58,479 --> 01:36:00,159the other side and said, Okay, what do I want to do as141901:36:00,199 --> 01:36:01,680a client? Do it as aclient. When I tell people I've been142001:36:01,720 --> 01:36:05,039managing money for a feast since nineteeneighty eight that are in this business,142101:36:05,239 --> 01:36:11,239they think it's unbelievable how much foresightI had before this even happened. Bottom142201:36:11,239 --> 01:36:15,199line is we do the right thing, always do the right thing, and142301:36:15,279 --> 01:36:16,880if we don't, we make itright. All right, We'll be back142401:36:17,119 --> 01:36:20,640next week with your where your moneymatters. But in between, you can142501:36:20,680 --> 01:36:25,239call us any time and get anyideas that you need to help. Come142601:36:25,279 --> 01:36:30,159sit in and get that free financialplan. But let's be happy. Let's142701:36:30,479 --> 01:36:33,319we need to stay healthy. Stayhealthy. At the end of the day,142801:36:33,560 --> 01:36:39,359we want to strive to be probable, say it's all