Inflation Down, Stocks Up, What’s Next?

WEBVTT100:00:03.600 --> 00:00:06.799Good morning. Is that time again? Is the Money Matters Show? And200:00:06.839 --> 00:00:11.160if you're tuned in for Dean's wonderfulmonologue, the monologue that we all enjoy300:00:11.240 --> 00:00:15.800every week, Dean is gone,so we're not going to get that monologue.400:00:15.919 --> 00:00:18.800But I did Todd well, Idid want to say hi to all500:00:18.839 --> 00:00:22.559of our listeners around the world.Yes, And the funny part about that600:00:22.679 --> 00:00:25.719is with iHeart. With the iHeartapp, you can listen to the show700:00:25.760 --> 00:00:28.920anywhere. We have people in Florida, New York, Illinois, a couple800:00:28.960 --> 00:00:31.760in Europe. It's kind of fun. We get emails from them, and900:00:32.439 --> 00:00:35.200we enjoy doing that. We enjoybringing in the show, and we thank1000:00:35.240 --> 00:00:41.200you for listening. And we're DaveSherwood, We're Sebastian Borsini, and we're1100:00:41.240 --> 00:00:46.359talking like and you want to giveus the down and dirty route the bat1200:00:46.359 --> 00:00:49.159buddy, let's do it real quick. Get to get that disclaimer out of1300:00:49.159 --> 00:00:51.600the way, because we tend toforget about it. This show is sponsored1400:00:51.600 --> 00:00:54.679by the Greenberg Financial Group and youcan listen on seven ninety cannis to your1500:00:54.719 --> 00:00:59.200iHeart radio. The show discusses differentinvestment products and strategies. Every product and1600:00:59.200 --> 00:01:03.359strategy have some type of inherent risks, and we strongly encourage our listeners to1700:01:03.439 --> 00:01:07.120properly understand this risk to determine whetherbuy, sell or hold. The show1800:01:07.120 --> 00:01:11.359has been on the air for overthirty years. The Greenberg Financial Groups registered1900:01:11.359 --> 00:01:15.079with the SEC and the member anda member of the FINERA and SIPIK.2000:01:15.519 --> 00:01:19.159Visit our website at Greenbrook Financial dotcom for more information. You did a2100:01:19.200 --> 00:01:23.359fine job of that. We hadanother interesting week that I think this was2200:01:23.400 --> 00:01:27.840the most one of the more fascinatingweeks ever. Yeah, especially if you2300:01:27.920 --> 00:01:33.439understood really what's going on. It'sI think the big story of the week2400:01:34.120 --> 00:01:40.400came last weekend when Moody's downgraded theUS debt outlook. Rights that's different and2500:01:40.439 --> 00:01:47.560that's a big difference. Yeah,they downgraded the outlook from to negative,2600:01:47.959 --> 00:01:51.280and they did go on to it. They maintained their trip A rating on2700:01:51.439 --> 00:01:53.959US death. They didn't downgrade debt. And that's what I've been hearing all2800:01:53.000 --> 00:01:57.879week is downgrading the debt. Theydid not downgraded the debt. But how2900:01:57.959 --> 00:02:01.480much does that matter though, becausethey're downgrading to what S and P and3000:02:01.560 --> 00:02:05.640the Fitch are already at. Youmight go to double A plus well,3100:02:05.640 --> 00:02:08.400that's where SMP and Fitch are alreadyat there, so they're downgrading to what3200:02:08.599 --> 00:02:14.120the other agencies have already downgraded thedebt too. So does that make a3300:02:14.199 --> 00:02:19.280huge difference? You know, it'sthe market already two out of the three3400:02:19.319 --> 00:02:23.159agencies already said it's double A plus. It made no absolutely no difference at3500:02:23.159 --> 00:02:25.439all. Right, should not moveup? They shouldn't. And if you're3600:02:25.439 --> 00:02:29.280going to be double A or doubleA plus or triple A, it doesn't3700:02:29.360 --> 00:02:34.120really matter because they said that thereis zero default risk, And isn't that3800:02:34.199 --> 00:02:37.840the bottom line at the end ofthe day. Why is there zero percent3900:02:37.840 --> 00:02:40.919default risk? Because we can keepprinting. Maybe we just keep printing that4000:02:42.000 --> 00:02:45.960money. We got the print wegot the printing press, right, we4100:02:46.000 --> 00:02:50.599do just keep printing the h Itwas one of those really weird weeks in4200:02:50.639 --> 00:02:54.159that you could have taken the entireweek off except for Tuesday, and it4300:02:54.159 --> 00:02:58.879wouldn't have mattered. Let me giveyou the s and P. Five hundred4400:02:58.960 --> 00:03:02.520day by day. Monday down three, I'm gonna skip Tuesday, Wednesday up4500:03:02.680 --> 00:03:08.159seven, Thursday up five, Fridayup five. Those are the four of4600:03:08.199 --> 00:03:15.599the five days. Now Tuesday upeighty four about almost two percent on Tuesday,4700:03:15.120 --> 00:03:19.719And of course that was in reactionto the CPI. We had talked4800:03:19.800 --> 00:03:23.319last week, and I think wehad todd you thought it would be flat.4900:03:23.280 --> 00:03:27.039I thought it would be down alittle bit. Went from three point5000:03:27.120 --> 00:03:30.879seven to three point two. That'sjust huge, massive drug. That's a5100:03:30.960 --> 00:03:36.439huge percentage moved down in inflation.And we now have a market that is5200:03:36.479 --> 00:03:40.400looking at at literally a Goldielock scenariowhere everything is just right. And we5300:03:40.400 --> 00:03:45.560were talking about the oil component ofthe CPI maybe showing up in this last5400:03:45.599 --> 00:03:49.800reading. Obviously not now, itobviously was the opposite. It kind of5500:03:49.960 --> 00:03:53.840picked up more of the decrease thatoil has had over the last kind of5600:03:53.879 --> 00:03:58.240six weeks we've seen. What's interesting. I looked at the breakdown of the5700:03:58.280 --> 00:04:01.080components of the CPI as to youknow, okay, what was up,5800:04:01.120 --> 00:04:04.240what was down? And I justdid double digits, right, So double5900:04:04.319 --> 00:04:08.159digits up. Now this is yearover year, not month to month,6000:04:08.240 --> 00:04:13.080So year over year. The biggestincrease has been in food from vending machines6100:04:13.319 --> 00:04:16.000and mobile vendors, which would befood trucks, right, vending machines,6200:04:16.040 --> 00:04:24.439that's vending machines and food trucks.That's the number one increase, right the6300:04:25.040 --> 00:04:28.120I'm sorry, not the number oneincrease. That's the number one increase in6400:04:28.160 --> 00:04:32.040the in the food the way fromhome category. Although I've got this screwed6500:04:32.079 --> 00:04:36.439up because the admission to sporting goodssporting events up twenty five percent. Admission6600:04:36.480 --> 00:04:41.920to sporting events, Now that's justscamming you. No, no, no,6700:04:42.040 --> 00:04:45.360think about let's think about reason forthat. Let's think about this a6800:04:45.439 --> 00:04:50.399year ago on sporting events. Howpopular were they a year ago? Right?6900:04:50.759 --> 00:04:54.399Well, I don't know, verypopular, somewhat popular, but you7000:04:54.439 --> 00:04:58.519still had somewhat of the COVID ideas. You didn't have this full supply demanded7100:04:58.680 --> 00:05:02.199dynamics back. Now you have everyonewho is an able body is going to7200:05:02.240 --> 00:05:04.920go to a sporting event instead ofjust to some people who are don't want7300:05:04.920 --> 00:05:08.680to be in those large crowds,right right, So now you have the7400:05:08.759 --> 00:05:14.199whole shebang of people that would bebuying. So maybe that's not really just7500:05:14.360 --> 00:05:16.279prices. It could also just bethat there's more demand showing up for that7600:05:16.519 --> 00:05:23.160was our mission to evance. Iwould have blamed it on Taylor. Is7700:05:23.160 --> 00:05:26.560that amazing how popular that young ladyis I mean, it is just off7800:05:26.639 --> 00:05:30.439the charts popularity worldwide. I meanBarnes and Noble. There's box sets of7900:05:30.480 --> 00:05:32.879tailor swifts. You can't get awayfrom her, you can't get away from8000:05:32.920 --> 00:05:36.120right. So it's just unbelievable.I mean, and you know, I8100:05:36.240 --> 00:05:40.360enjoy cheering for her. I rememberthe very first time she appeared on the8200:05:40.399 --> 00:05:44.720Country Music Awards. She walked outand the first thing she did is pointed8300:05:44.720 --> 00:05:49.079at Tim mcgran mouth. That's TimMcGrath. Now you're watching Country Music Awards.8400:05:49.600 --> 00:05:51.680Oh, I love country music?Wow? And I love the Country8500:05:51.759 --> 00:05:56.000Music Awards. Are the best ofwords show on TV? Absolutely bar none,8600:05:56.120 --> 00:05:59.399best of words show on TV.Number two and I'll move right along8700:05:59.439 --> 00:06:03.279because now we does agree with that. Number Number two is motor vehicle insurance.8800:06:03.279 --> 00:06:06.319Now we know about that, Anthony. Anthony, our insurance guy,8900:06:06.480 --> 00:06:10.839has been on a couple of times, and it's the parts, the inflation9000:06:11.120 --> 00:06:15.759in the automobile parts that's responsible forthat. So number one admission to sporting9100:06:15.759 --> 00:06:20.720events. Number two vehicle insurance.Number three vehicle repair, which kind of9200:06:20.720 --> 00:06:24.959ties in with vehicle insurance. Andwell also back to the insurance though we9300:06:25.000 --> 00:06:28.800also you talked about it a coupleof weeks ago. Eves are more expensive9400:06:28.800 --> 00:06:32.600to replace as well, so moreas more insurance. It's absolutely true.9500:06:32.600 --> 00:06:36.040And that's a whole new that's awhole new area that we haven't even really9600:06:36.079 --> 00:06:40.600gotten into yet in terms of repairs, right, because those certainly it would9700:06:40.639 --> 00:06:44.160be some significant repairs. Then wego to food from vending machines, then9800:06:44.199 --> 00:06:48.199frozen vegetables and uncooked beef steaks.Well, thank god, I don't cook9900:06:48.199 --> 00:06:56.600at home. Uncooked uncooked beef steaksnumber five on the list anyway, But10000:06:57.120 --> 00:07:01.079the CPI dropped from three point sevento three point two. Core CPI was10100:07:01.120 --> 00:07:05.000the lowest level in two years,and CORE does away with food and energy,10200:07:05.040 --> 00:07:09.399which are the two most volatile components, right, and so the CORE10300:07:10.360 --> 00:07:15.560the lowest in two years. PPIproducer Price Index, which in essence is10400:07:15.600 --> 00:07:18.720the future, right. It hadits biggest month over month drops since the10500:07:18.759 --> 00:07:25.079pandemic began. So again, goldilocks, the economy is growing. The growth10600:07:25.160 --> 00:07:30.199has slowed, but it's still growing, and inflation has come down to levels10700:07:30.720 --> 00:07:32.920approaching what the Fed's target was.On top of that, we also got10800:07:32.920 --> 00:07:35.839the retail sales on Wednesday, whichis a day after the CPI. The10900:07:35.839 --> 00:07:40.839retail sales report came in at negativepoint one. It was expected to be11000:07:40.920 --> 00:07:45.879point seven. So that's another Goldilockscenario of obviously retail sales plays into CPI11100:07:45.959 --> 00:07:49.120in the future months, showing thatthe retail consumer isn't spending as much as11200:07:49.160 --> 00:07:53.680what the analysts were expecting. Sonow way we have that drop. I11300:07:53.680 --> 00:07:58.680mean, the biggest on the retailsales breakdown per category was gasoline stations that11400:07:58.720 --> 00:08:01.959they saw a huge month over amonth change in that. The biggest decrease11500:08:03.480 --> 00:08:11.199was furniture and home furnishings. It'sjust the retail sales was a The bottom11600:08:11.240 --> 00:08:15.279line is things are lining up exactlywhat you'd like to see for a soft11700:08:15.360 --> 00:08:18.160landing, yep. And that's kindof that's kind of where we are.11800:08:18.439 --> 00:08:22.639However, you get into that kindof scenario of how much is too bad11900:08:24.120 --> 00:08:26.319right, because right now we're inthe scenario of bad news is good news.12000:08:26.879 --> 00:08:33.799Eventually bad news is too bad right. Eventually valuations start to play into12100:08:33.879 --> 00:08:37.240this and people are projecting six monthsdown the road, we're not going to12200:08:37.279 --> 00:08:41.360have an economic activity because it isslowing. That's what we're looking at.12300:08:41.559 --> 00:08:45.120Absolutely, talk a little bit aboutthat commodities. Yeah, So on oil,12400:08:45.200 --> 00:08:48.000we were down one dollar this week, and it was actually a very12500:08:48.039 --> 00:08:52.120interesting week for oil because it hita low of seventy two during the week,12600:08:52.360 --> 00:08:54.480finished that seventy five dollars and seventycents a barrel. It's been all12700:08:54.480 --> 00:08:58.120over the place. Obviously, wesaw a huge spike with the global tensions12800:08:58.120 --> 00:09:03.159that came about with the Israel Hamasconflict. But then what happened was oil12900:09:03.200 --> 00:09:09.440almost just fell like a rock afterthat surge off that the war. Really13000:09:09.440 --> 00:09:13.879starting to see that deflationary pressure.Then you and I talked a little bit13100:09:13.960 --> 00:09:18.240about that this week, Dave onoil. I still am at a loss13200:09:18.320 --> 00:09:22.240to what is really bringing that abouts. Well, it's global uncertainty about economic13300:09:22.360 --> 00:09:26.600activity going into the future. Becauseeverything points the oil should be going higher.13400:09:26.679 --> 00:09:31.639You have cut productions from the biggestoil producers. You have what seems13500:09:31.639 --> 00:09:35.919to like seems to be looking likeChina coming back online, you have economic13600:09:35.960 --> 00:09:39.720activity throughout the world, and youhave two wars in the world. All13700:09:39.759 --> 00:09:41.799of this should be saying oil shouldbe getting bids. The fact that it's13800:09:41.840 --> 00:09:46.879not showing that investors are really thinkingdown the line. Economic activity is not13900:09:46.879 --> 00:09:50.720going to be there. I thinkthat's Trump obviously, that's trumping everything right14000:09:50.720 --> 00:09:54.039now because the oil prices have beenmovingly lower, and I think it was14100:09:54.080 --> 00:10:00.759a Thursday of last week they collapseddown to seventy three or seventy Yeah,14200:10:00.759 --> 00:10:03.559low a seventy two. I cameback up too. But now the gold14300:10:03.639 --> 00:10:07.440also had a good week. Itwas up forty eight dollars to nineteen eighty14400:10:07.480 --> 00:10:11.799an ounce, and you know thedollar didn't. The dollar was down a14500:10:11.840 --> 00:10:13.440little bit. Yeah, the goldskind of decoupled from the dollar. And14600:10:13.519 --> 00:10:18.080I suggested last week that gold atnineteen thirty was on its way back to14700:10:18.120 --> 00:10:22.120eighteen hundred, and it finished thisweek at nineteen eighty, so that apparently14800:10:22.200 --> 00:10:24.960not. And you know it wasinteresting because when oil had its real big14900:10:26.039 --> 00:10:28.000drop, that's where you saw goldkind of get its bit. So that15000:10:28.039 --> 00:10:33.200global uncertainty I think played into thatgold picture as well. Could be ten15100:10:33.240 --> 00:10:35.720year treasury four point four to four, two year treasury four point nine to15200:10:35.799 --> 00:10:41.720one basis points is forty seven basispoints. Again, that continues to expand.15300:10:41.200 --> 00:10:43.279Not what you want to see.You want to see it going the15400:10:43.320 --> 00:10:48.279other way, and it's subtle.I think it was seventeen basis points a15500:10:48.320 --> 00:10:50.720couple of weeks ago. Then itwent to twenty five, then forty four,15600:10:50.759 --> 00:10:54.000and now forty seven. So it'sa very subtle inversion of the yield15700:10:54.039 --> 00:10:58.159curve. But what that tells youis that, again in line with oil15800:10:58.200 --> 00:11:03.639prices, expectation down the road arethat things are not going to be quite15900:11:03.720 --> 00:11:07.919as good as they are right noweconomically. On the thirty year mortgage rate,16000:11:07.960 --> 00:11:09.960also, it decreased to seven pointfour to four percent on the Freddie16100:11:11.039 --> 00:11:13.440Mac. I care a lot aboutmortgage rates right now because I haven't locked16200:11:13.480 --> 00:11:16.440in my rate yet, Dave.I'm like, how are you your faulting?16300:11:16.519 --> 00:11:18.879Oh yeah, I'm flowing. So, but I still do expect rates16400:11:18.879 --> 00:11:24.279to keep falling. I mean untilyou have something that really, I mean,16500:11:24.320 --> 00:11:26.879the only thing that could make theFED really just turn its head around16600:11:26.879 --> 00:11:31.000and start talking about hikes again isif this market just keeps running away and16700:11:31.039 --> 00:11:35.559they start to say, bad,bad, you naughty teenagers you're doing.16800:11:35.639 --> 00:11:39.120You're too risky. If you're takinga mortgage right now, though you would16900:11:39.240 --> 00:11:41.879get an arm would you take anadjustable rate mortgage? Absolutely? What the17000:11:41.919 --> 00:11:46.000rates are? I just take anadjustable rate no, I can, Well,17100:11:46.039 --> 00:11:48.720my house isn't done until February,so you can lock in the rate17200:11:48.759 --> 00:11:50.960here and get an ARM with today'srates, I see. Or I can17300:11:52.039 --> 00:11:54.639just wait and not pay the extramoney I have to pay to lock in17400:11:54.679 --> 00:12:00.240the rate today. Actually, sothe initial three years is it to be17500:12:00.240 --> 00:12:03.559a five year arm? That afive year arm. So whatever you decide17600:12:03.600 --> 00:12:05.840to whenever that happens, whenever thehouse is done, or you decide to17700:12:05.840 --> 00:12:09.440lock right, that's your rate forfive years, correct, and then five17800:12:09.480 --> 00:12:11.879years from now you can refinance.Yeah, instead of paying for that for17900:12:11.960 --> 00:12:15.279waiting, I'm just gonna wait forwhen because I think rates are gonna be18000:12:15.279 --> 00:12:18.519lower. Anyways, I was kindof excited about raytheons bounced back last week,18100:12:18.559 --> 00:12:22.879but it just kind of lost steamthis week. It bounced from we18200:12:22.000 --> 00:12:26.559got down below seventy, then itbounced back into the mid eighties, which18300:12:26.639 --> 00:12:31.000was kind of where it dropped whenthat news about the Pratt and Whitney engines18400:12:31.720 --> 00:12:35.879broke. It dropped down to thatlevel. Now on the rally back up,18500:12:35.919 --> 00:12:39.960it got to that level and thenjust stalled. It's probably because the18600:12:39.000 --> 00:12:43.759Israel Hamas conflict has kind of beenisolated to Israel and Hamas. That's that's18700:12:43.799 --> 00:12:48.320true, That's absolutely true. Butthat doesn't mean that there's not going to18800:12:48.360 --> 00:12:52.399be a huge replacement cycle for patriotsbecause they shot off thousands, certainly,18900:12:52.039 --> 00:12:58.879so there's some some serious business yeahfor them there. But you're absolutely right.19000:13:00.559 --> 00:13:05.679I think the fact that the warhas stayed between Israel and Hamas is19100:13:07.000 --> 00:13:09.840a good thing, and it's agreat thing for the world, right frankly.19200:13:11.320 --> 00:13:16.279And I think that that the USpresidence offshore and around there has helped19300:13:16.720 --> 00:13:20.960to make that the case has helped. I've often thought maybe that Hamas kind19400:13:20.960 --> 00:13:24.320of was the guinea pig here thatthey decided they said, okay, Hamas,19500:13:24.559 --> 00:13:30.799they being Israel and Siri and allof the Arab country Yemen, okay,19600:13:30.960 --> 00:13:33.840Hamash, you go ahead and makethe first strike, and then the19700:13:33.879 --> 00:13:37.720rest of us will join you.And maybe it's like, well maybe not.19800:13:37.159 --> 00:13:41.320You know, well, let's let'stalk about a couple of the other19900:13:41.799 --> 00:13:46.600things that happened. Bitcoin was downtwo percent on the week, not I'm20000:13:46.639 --> 00:13:48.840not sure why. It was kindof just trading, maybe seeing finding some20100:13:48.840 --> 00:13:52.279consolidation there. It's trading around thirtysix thousand. We didn't really actually talk20200:13:52.279 --> 00:13:56.279about the numbers of the indexes andwhat they did this week. Thank you,20300:13:56.519 --> 00:13:58.159good Dow. Good point. TheDow this week up one point nine20400:13:58.200 --> 00:14:01.360percent, the S and P uptwo point two. The Nasdaq led the20500:14:01.919 --> 00:14:05.360accident lea the way, they're uptwo point four. The people who did20600:14:05.480 --> 00:14:07.559lead the way it was the Russelltwo thousand, the small caps, they20700:14:07.600 --> 00:14:11.200had a great week up five pointfour percent. The equal weighted look at20800:14:11.200 --> 00:14:15.360that outpaced the S and P fivehundred. Equ weighted was up three point20900:14:15.440 --> 00:14:20.279three percent. Regular S and Pup two point two on the On the21000:14:20.320 --> 00:14:22.240month, the SMP's up seven pointseven, they equal weighted seven point one.21100:14:22.279 --> 00:14:24.759So you can see there's a realdivergence over this last week. The21200:14:24.759 --> 00:14:30.200equal weighted outperformed. We haven't seenthat much because on the year, the21300:14:30.240 --> 00:14:33.840S and P five hundreds up seventeenpercent and the equal weight is only up21400:14:33.879 --> 00:14:39.440three. That's hugely, hugely importantfor every investor because it means that it's21500:14:39.480 --> 00:14:43.279the rally is broadened out. Tosee the S and P five hundred up21600:14:43.279 --> 00:14:46.440seven point seven for the month andthe equal weighted S and P up seven21700:14:46.480 --> 00:14:50.559point one for the month tells youthe value is coming along and joining the21800:14:50.600 --> 00:14:56.519Magnificent seven. So if you dohave a stock portfolio, you'd expect it21900:14:56.559 --> 00:15:00.840to start moving higher over the lastfew weeks. If look at your account22000:15:00.919 --> 00:15:07.000online, you're probably pleased with whatyou're seeing, Whereas over the past really22100:15:07.480 --> 00:15:09.919ten months, it's been the reverse. I mean, the market's been just22200:15:11.120 --> 00:15:15.080on fire because of those seven stocks. And when I say market, I22300:15:15.120 --> 00:15:18.799talk about S and P five hundred, the equal weighted or the more widely22400:15:20.000 --> 00:15:24.120diversified portfolio not playing long. Yeah, I've been following the S and P22500:15:24.279 --> 00:15:26.840five hundred chart and we're still notat the highs we saw in the July22600:15:26.960 --> 00:15:33.279thirty first peak that we saw thisyear. The Nasdaq one hundred, however,22700:15:33.399 --> 00:15:37.360has come back all the way upto its peak on July thirty first,22800:15:37.480 --> 00:15:41.080showing that again those seven stocks,those Magnificent seven, are leading the22900:15:41.120 --> 00:15:45.559way even in this rally that we'veseen over the last three weeks as well.23000:15:46.120 --> 00:15:48.039Going even further into this, theMagnificent seven, if you combine all23100:15:48.080 --> 00:15:52.759of them and take their forward earningpe ratio, they're at twenty nine point23200:15:52.759 --> 00:15:56.200five times earnings. You compare thatto the S and P five hundred,23300:15:56.480 --> 00:16:00.879that's nineteen times you compare it tothe rest of the market only at seventeen23400:16:00.919 --> 00:16:04.480times, and according to what ourimplied fair value should be at with an23500:16:04.480 --> 00:16:07.440interest rate on a ten year atfour point four percent, we should only23600:16:07.480 --> 00:16:12.960be at five fifteen times earnings onprice to earnings ratio. So the Magnificent23700:16:14.000 --> 00:16:18.279seven are essentially double what we shouldbe looking at on a fair value.23800:16:18.440 --> 00:16:22.279Sure, and we talk about itevery week, but at the S and23900:16:22.320 --> 00:16:27.000P five hundred, for the firsttime really in decades, is not representative24000:16:27.039 --> 00:16:30.600of what's happening in the overall market, which is why we've spent more time24100:16:30.759 --> 00:16:34.919talking about the equal weighted the equalweighted S and P five hundred. With24200:16:36.000 --> 00:16:40.759the S and P five hundred upseventeen percent as of the Friday's close,24300:16:41.159 --> 00:16:45.240the equal weighted is up three It'sreally important to keep that in mind because24400:16:45.279 --> 00:16:48.879as we go into next year,Historically, when the S and P five24500:16:48.960 --> 00:16:52.519hundred outpaces the equal weighted, yousee as a flip there where the equal24600:16:52.519 --> 00:16:56.679weighted will outperform the S and P, whether it is on the downside or24700:16:56.720 --> 00:17:00.320the upside. So it's important towatch that just be because all these seven24800:17:00.320 --> 00:17:04.200stocks have gotten all the news andall the attraction to them. It doesn't24900:17:04.200 --> 00:17:07.599mean that's where the only place youshould be. In fact, I saw25000:17:07.640 --> 00:17:11.839a crazy stat that said ninety ninepercent of hedge funds own the Magnificent Seven.25100:17:12.119 --> 00:17:15.000That's compared to twelve percent all ofthem. Yeah, compared to twelve25200:17:15.039 --> 00:17:21.000percent in January twenty three. SoI mean the hedge funds, I mean25300:17:21.000 --> 00:17:23.640everyone who's managing money they want tohave those Magnificent seven in that portfolio because25400:17:23.640 --> 00:17:26.640they don't want to they don't wantto be talking to client and the clients25500:17:26.640 --> 00:17:27.440say, well, what were youthinking? Yeah, right, don't I25600:17:27.440 --> 00:17:30.400have any of that exactly, Sothey're just throwing it in there. That25700:17:30.519 --> 00:17:34.039might not be the best bet.If the if we it does tend to25800:17:34.039 --> 00:17:37.599be that the equal weight that outperforms next year. Yeah, yeah,25900:17:37.799 --> 00:17:40.240I agree with the harm percent,I think. And if you want to26000:17:40.720 --> 00:17:45.319typically you're successful in this business ifyou buy out of favor things to a26100:17:45.400 --> 00:17:48.759point. I mean, you don'twant to buy dogs of the data,26200:17:48.079 --> 00:17:52.880right, you know, but thingsthat are out of favor and simply wait26300:17:52.960 --> 00:17:55.000patiently. I mean, what wasthat a favor? At the end of26400:17:55.039 --> 00:18:00.799twenty two, Walgreens also tech SalesforceDot Yeah, right, dot com.26500:18:00.839 --> 00:18:03.440I know where you're going with that. And the number one performer in the26600:18:03.519 --> 00:18:07.000Dow this year Salesforce dot com.And that's kind of the way it goes.26700:18:07.039 --> 00:18:11.680Hey. For those who think electriccars are just a fad, Exon26800:18:11.759 --> 00:18:15.920announced last week they purchased one hundredand twenty thousand acres of land at a26900:18:15.960 --> 00:18:23.039geographical site in Arkansas that contains lithium. They've planned to manufacture enough lithium.27000:18:23.079 --> 00:18:29.559Exxon planned to manufacture enough lithium topar one million electric vehicles per year by27100:18:29.559 --> 00:18:33.039twenty thirty. Well, it's someways down the road twenty thirty, but27200:18:33.119 --> 00:18:37.640it tells you that Exon is lookingat this going hmm, let me tap27300:18:37.680 --> 00:18:41.359into this market. Dean made aninteresting point. We were talking during the27400:18:41.359 --> 00:18:44.880week and he said, and weboth like to watch sports, and he27500:18:44.920 --> 00:18:48.079goes, how come every commercial isfor an electric car? Have you noticed27600:18:48.079 --> 00:18:55.839that almost every single car commercial isfor an electric car? And I started27700:18:56.039 --> 00:19:00.880wondering why, and it struck methat right now about out eight percent of27800:19:00.200 --> 00:19:06.400sales are electric. We know fromreports that we've talked about on the show27900:19:06.440 --> 00:19:11.640that somewhere around forty percent of peopleare interested in an electric car. Well,28000:19:11.640 --> 00:19:15.200if you go from eight to forty, that would make it, without28100:19:15.200 --> 00:19:19.000a doubt, the fastest growing segmentof the automotive market period. So that28200:19:19.240 --> 00:19:23.680must be why those commercials are.But kind of pay attention to the car28300:19:23.720 --> 00:19:30.359commercials and it's pretty shocking and wellover half of them are for electric cars.28400:19:30.519 --> 00:19:33.920Yeah. Well, also keep inmind that the more electric cars that28500:19:33.960 --> 00:19:37.079they sell, the less cave creditsthat they have got Cafe. We learn28600:19:37.119 --> 00:19:41.119that the Cafe credits that's actually Isay a cafe credit. So the Cafe28700:19:41.160 --> 00:19:45.039credits are things that these companies haveto buy if they don't have their whole28800:19:45.079 --> 00:19:48.920fleet that they sold in that yeardoesn't cover the emission standards that are set28900:19:48.960 --> 00:19:52.960by the government. So if theysell more electric vehicles, they don't have29000:19:52.000 --> 00:19:56.640to really do that. So maybethat's why as well, it could be29100:19:56.039 --> 00:20:00.480it hasn't. It hasn't helped chargepoint much though, has it charged What29200:20:00.559 --> 00:20:04.440an interesting story. This is thelargest charging company in the country. They29300:20:04.440 --> 00:20:08.000were sure they have more. Theyhave. Yeah, they have more charging29400:20:08.519 --> 00:20:12.880stations than any other company including Tesla. Right. They hit an all time29500:20:14.000 --> 00:20:18.200low on Friday, down thirty threepercent, after both the CEO and the29600:20:18.240 --> 00:20:22.599CFO left the company. Stock wasforty eight dollars in December of twenty twenty29700:20:22.640 --> 00:20:27.759close Friday at two. And you'vegot to ask why would the largest charging29800:20:27.880 --> 00:20:33.400company in the country be hitting anall time low? And we know the29900:20:33.440 --> 00:20:37.599answer, don't we tell you?Called it Dave. Actually I know,30000:20:37.640 --> 00:20:44.279I actually made this observation about threemonths ago in the stock probably was in30100:20:44.279 --> 00:20:48.079the teens and I think when youreally found this out, he was like30200:20:48.119 --> 00:20:52.240eight nine dollars at that time.I think it was well whatever. Anyway,30300:20:52.279 --> 00:20:56.440bottom line is the reason that thiscompany is struggling is they are level30400:20:56.480 --> 00:21:00.720two chargers only. I shouldn't saythey have fifteen hundred Level three chargers out30500:21:00.720 --> 00:21:06.720of seventy thousand chargers. It's allLevel two. And if you haven't listened30600:21:06.759 --> 00:21:11.400to this segment to the ev garagebefore, we know the level one.30700:21:11.480 --> 00:21:15.200That's when you plug essentially plug intothe garage, right, you just plug30800:21:15.200 --> 00:21:17.799it in. It takes a coupleof days for the charge. Literally takes30900:21:17.839 --> 00:21:22.720a couple of days for to charge. Level two is what most people use31000:21:22.799 --> 00:21:25.680at home to charge. You getabout forty miles an hour. That's what31100:21:25.720 --> 00:21:29.839you'd use for charging overnight. That'swhat these guys have. Level three is31200:21:29.839 --> 00:21:33.599what you need to find when you'retraveling, and that can charge the car31300:21:33.680 --> 00:21:37.599to an eighty percent charging about thirtyminutes. Tesla dominates that space. Charge31400:21:37.599 --> 00:21:42.240point is not really active in thatspace. So they're going to hotels,31500:21:42.559 --> 00:21:48.039they're going to anywhere where people aregoing to be for a while, hospitals,31600:21:48.119 --> 00:21:52.799maybe libraries, wherever people are goingto be for a while. That31700:21:52.000 --> 00:21:59.799is where they're putting their charging stations, and it's going poorly. Does Tesla31800:21:59.799 --> 00:22:02.880have or level one, level twoand level three chargers? No? No,31900:22:03.000 --> 00:22:03.880keep it wind. Level one isthere is no such thing as a32000:22:03.920 --> 00:22:07.240level one charger. That's essentially puggingit into the wall, right, So32100:22:07.279 --> 00:22:11.119a level two charger, and thereason you'd have a level two charger instead32200:22:11.160 --> 00:22:15.680of level three is a level twocharger cost about a thousand bucks a level32300:22:15.680 --> 00:22:19.880three charger fifty to one hundred grandwow for a level three charger. So32400:22:19.960 --> 00:22:23.279those Tesla chargers you see out there, fifty to one hundred grand apiece.32500:22:23.400 --> 00:22:27.640Wow. No, Level two chargersare what everybody has in there. Not32600:22:27.680 --> 00:22:30.200everybody, but what most people havein their garage. If you have an32700:22:30.240 --> 00:22:34.400electric vehicle, you're going to havea level two charger in your garage or32800:22:34.400 --> 00:22:38.279else, it's going to be areally bad experience. And I went for32900:22:38.839 --> 00:22:44.799a month with before my charger wasinstalled, going to public charging stations and33000:22:44.839 --> 00:22:48.200it was really annoying. It tookforever, and you did you know,33100:22:48.480 --> 00:22:51.359half an hour forty five minutes whenyou have nothing to do is a long33200:22:51.440 --> 00:22:56.559time. So uh again, chargepoint level two chargers. I think at33300:22:56.599 --> 00:23:00.440some point there's a big market forthose level two chargers at some point point,33400:23:00.240 --> 00:23:06.960but hotels have been slow to adoptthem. Most upscale hotels will now33500:23:07.039 --> 00:23:11.839have some level two charging stations,but not anywhere near the numbers that that33600:23:11.880 --> 00:23:15.039they need to make it profitable.So yeah, I mean level two is33700:23:15.079 --> 00:23:17.920don't make sense because honestly, welive in a world where people don't want33800:23:17.920 --> 00:23:21.440to wait, and that's not gonnachange. It's going to increase that trend.33900:23:21.680 --> 00:23:25.000So having things that wait too long, I don't think people are going34000:23:25.079 --> 00:23:27.200to come around to it. It'sit's it's really people are going to come34100:23:27.200 --> 00:23:30.400around to level threes, that's whatit's. I think there's a I think34200:23:30.440 --> 00:23:33.440there's a huge market out there fora level two chargers, but I don't.34300:23:34.000 --> 00:23:37.000Oh yeah, every hotel is goingto have eight or ten of them,34400:23:37.079 --> 00:23:41.720But that'n't mean that you're actually gonnawant to use it. No,34500:23:41.799 --> 00:23:45.000but every hotel is going to havethem. And why wouldn't you because you34600:23:45.079 --> 00:23:52.200might already have had it completely charged. It's you're never as someone who's had34700:23:52.240 --> 00:23:55.440a little hectory car, you neverhave enough charge, right. If you34800:23:55.440 --> 00:23:57.160can get an extra boost here andthere, you're gonna take it. But34900:23:57.319 --> 00:24:00.480anyway, if you're traveling, well, then you're gonna need to charge a35000:24:00.559 --> 00:24:06.000car. But also what you're talkingabout is most traveling stations are have the35100:24:06.079 --> 00:24:08.240level threes that you're looking for.You're not going to go to a travel35200:24:08.240 --> 00:24:12.119station and charge up at a leveltwo because that's gonna take way too long35300:24:12.240 --> 00:24:17.400if you're on a trip, ifyou're traveling somewhere. Yeah, it's an35400:24:17.400 --> 00:24:21.279interesting it's an interesting thing. It'spart of the future and it's kind of35500:24:21.279 --> 00:24:23.960fun to play with. But anyway, we thank you for listening. We'll35600:24:25.000 --> 00:24:33.480be back right after this break.This is the Money Matter Shows. Welcome35700:24:33.480 --> 00:24:34.759back to the Money Matter Show.My name is Todd Glick. I'm here35800:24:34.759 --> 00:24:38.240with Sebastian Borsini and Dave Surewood.I want to make sure everyone's aware of35900:24:38.319 --> 00:24:41.319where they can find all of ourgood content. You can go to our36000:24:41.319 --> 00:24:45.839website Greenberg Financial dot com. Inthe upper right hand corner, you'll see36100:24:45.839 --> 00:24:48.920all the different icons. You canclick on our YouTube page and subscribe.36200:24:48.920 --> 00:24:52.359There you'll find all of our videos, our TV shows, our weekly market36300:24:52.440 --> 00:24:56.119updates. You can go to ourFacebook page and see our posts, our36400:24:56.160 --> 00:25:00.359newsletters posted on there, as wellas our latest seminar that we're coming out36500:25:00.359 --> 00:25:03.920with on December thirteenth for federal employeebenefits education. We're going to have that36600:25:04.119 --> 00:25:08.880held here in Tucson locally, Soif you want to look for more information,36700:25:10.000 --> 00:25:12.279you can go to the Greenberg Financialdot com website and click on the36800:25:12.279 --> 00:25:17.640Federal Employees tab, and at thebottom of the page you can get click36900:25:17.640 --> 00:25:21.200on the register now. It willsend you to our event bright page.37000:25:21.240 --> 00:25:23.359We'll have all the information about theevent. You can register on there for37100:25:23.400 --> 00:25:26.640a mobile e ticket, and thenit will send you an email confirmation as37200:25:26.640 --> 00:25:30.319well afterwards. If you want tojust sign up the old fashion way,37300:25:30.319 --> 00:25:32.759feel free to give us a callfive to zero five four four four nine37400:25:32.839 --> 00:25:34.440zero nine and we can sign youup that way as well. But all37500:25:34.440 --> 00:25:40.200the information is on our website aswell as again, listen to our podcast37600:25:40.319 --> 00:25:44.640they are recorded, they are onAll these radio shows are recorded on podcasts.37700:25:44.680 --> 00:25:47.599You can listen anytime anywhere, asDave said, anywhere in the world37800:25:47.799 --> 00:25:49.920even and then on top of thatweek, amazing some of the emails we37900:25:49.920 --> 00:25:55.640get from different places in really andwe also have the radio shows on Saturday38000:25:55.680 --> 00:25:59.400six thirty, twelve and twelve thirty. We also just aired a good slate38100:25:59.440 --> 00:26:03.359of six new Ties TV shows,so that will continuously be put on the38200:26:03.519 --> 00:26:07.400NBC KVOA station on Sunday nights atten thirty pm after the ten pm news.38300:26:07.440 --> 00:26:11.319If you are planning on joining usfor that Federal Employee Benefits Centemar Seminar,38400:26:11.880 --> 00:26:15.599don't forget to ask your employer forForm SF one eight two. You38500:26:15.680 --> 00:26:18.440might be entitled to a free dayoff, paid day off. Yeah,38600:26:18.640 --> 00:26:22.480they love the Event's also going tohave paid lunch, So you have free38700:26:22.559 --> 00:26:26.359lunch, paid day off, andyou get to learn about your Federal employee38800:26:26.359 --> 00:26:30.319benefits and how they will compliment youwith your financial plan going throughout retirement.38900:26:30.400 --> 00:26:33.799You will even offer you a freefinancial plan after the seminar, if you39000:26:34.119 --> 00:26:37.960are interested in that, I wantto take advantage of that as well.39100:26:37.079 --> 00:26:41.000And in the middle of the secondhour, we're going to have the replay39200:26:41.079 --> 00:26:44.799that interview had with Sean McCoy,who is the guy that's flying out here39300:26:44.839 --> 00:26:48.759to do this seminar, right,and give it kind of a I think39400:26:48.759 --> 00:26:51.920of it as a as a previewof a movie, right right, exactly,39500:26:51.880 --> 00:26:55.119a little trailer, little trailer.Yeah, so it it'd be a39600:26:55.160 --> 00:26:59.359good event. So if you havea federal employee anywhere from ten years less39700:26:59.359 --> 00:27:03.599from retirement, definitely take advantage ofthat event. Or if you know a39800:27:03.640 --> 00:27:06.200federal employee, if you have afederal employee in your family. I know,39900:27:06.480 --> 00:27:08.279I have a federal employee that goesto my church. And I said40000:27:08.279 --> 00:27:11.400to her, I said, haveyou given this any thought? Are you40100:27:11.440 --> 00:27:15.240aware of this? Now? Iwasn't aware. And I told her what40200:27:15.279 --> 00:27:17.160it was about, and she said, oh, I'd love to go to40300:27:17.200 --> 00:27:19.359that now she's two years away fromretirement. I'd love to do that.40400:27:19.960 --> 00:27:23.319And so you know, if youhave someone in your family, someone you40500:27:23.480 --> 00:27:27.960in your neighborhood, someone in yourchurch who's a federal employee who is getting40600:27:27.960 --> 00:27:33.160close to retirement. What an amazingopportunity. And this guy's flying out here,40700:27:33.160 --> 00:27:36.880he's got decades of experience. Youget a free launch, you get40800:27:36.920 --> 00:27:40.160the seminar, you get a freefinancial plan, and I promise we won't40900:27:40.160 --> 00:27:42.440dog you. You're not going tobe on the list where we call you41000:27:42.480 --> 00:27:45.640every fifteen minutes for the rest ofyour life. I had a friend of41100:27:45.640 --> 00:27:48.039mine who said he got a newcell phone number. I go, my41200:27:48.079 --> 00:27:51.440goodness, why would you ever changeyourself on them? He goes, I41300:27:51.559 --> 00:27:53.319was tired of getting the spam calls. You know, really, you think41400:27:53.359 --> 00:27:57.079getting a new number is going tostop that because the robot can find you.41500:27:57.119 --> 00:28:02.680Buddy, there's a what I waslooking at. Speaking of government government41600:28:02.759 --> 00:28:07.119debts, an unprecedented eight point twotrillion dollars of US government debt will be41700:28:07.200 --> 00:28:12.519maturing in the next twelve months.Take this, it's one third of all41800:28:12.680 --> 00:28:18.000total treasuries outstanding currently in the nexttwelve months, mature in the next twelve41900:28:18.000 --> 00:28:21.160month. And they're all paying interestratea one to two percent of residented they're42000:28:21.200 --> 00:28:22.359all paying one to two percent.They're going to go to four to five42100:28:22.359 --> 00:28:26.519percent, three to five three pointfive times more than what was net issued42200:28:26.640 --> 00:28:30.440this year alone, So we're lookingat a huge issuance next year. The42300:28:30.440 --> 00:28:33.400Treasury is gonna have a lot ofwork on their hands, the Treasury Department42400:28:33.480 --> 00:28:37.240that is. And yeah, thosecoupon rates on those new treasures rolling out42500:28:37.279 --> 00:28:41.440are going to be pretty pretty big. We'll be buying them. Poo golly.42600:28:41.559 --> 00:28:45.240Hey, couple interesting things this week. The solar ETF, which has42700:28:45.359 --> 00:28:49.839just gotten cobborage down fifty percent thisyear, son thirty percent in the last42800:28:49.880 --> 00:28:56.519ninety days. Ten oh yeah,Sun close Soun's better down thirty percent last42900:28:56.559 --> 00:29:03.119ninety Higher interest rates have really beenplaying havoc with the solar market. The43000:29:03.119 --> 00:29:06.880the numbers don't work as well whenyou're talking about rates where they are now.43100:29:06.920 --> 00:29:11.920And however, the ETF jumped tenpercent on Tuesday after that tame CPI43200:29:11.079 --> 00:29:15.000number. To remember, we saidit was four days this week where the43300:29:15.119 --> 00:29:18.279S and P five hundred didn't evenmove ten points, but on Tuesday it43400:29:18.319 --> 00:29:22.000was up eighty four points. Andthis that was a okay, a real43500:29:22.119 --> 00:29:26.240nice pop. Yeah, because Iwas I was looking at I follow this43600:29:26.319 --> 00:29:30.359stock on the on the solar frontcalled fsl R, First Solar, Yeah,43700:29:30.400 --> 00:29:33.200First Solder and I saw them geta big jar of tan. Interesting43800:29:33.359 --> 00:29:37.519okay, a big part of tanTesla. This is interesting A four percent43900:29:37.599 --> 00:29:40.680on Monday on news. You know, they got the cyber truck, which44000:29:40.720 --> 00:29:44.240is just a interesting. I wasgonna say, god awful, but it's44100:29:44.240 --> 00:29:48.039it's tastes. I've also heard that. I've heard that it's it's a lot.44200:29:48.119 --> 00:29:49.880It looks a lot different in person. So I'm gonna reserve my Giant44300:29:51.000 --> 00:29:52.160because I agree with you, Dave. I think it looks like a piece.44400:29:52.519 --> 00:29:56.319It's really work. It does notlook good on pictures, but maybe44500:29:56.319 --> 00:29:59.920it's different in person. That's whateveryone tells me. Well, I hear44600:30:00.279 --> 00:30:03.440we're gonna find out, because Iguess it's actually going to come out here44700:30:03.680 --> 00:30:08.680and get this. The cyber truckorder agreement. There's so much demand for44800:30:08.799 --> 00:30:12.160this truck that none of the threeof us think is worth driving. I44900:30:12.200 --> 00:30:15.920wouldn't want to be seen driving it, right. There's so much demand for45000:30:15.960 --> 00:30:22.839this truck that the order agreement prohibitsthe buyer from selling in the first twelve45100:30:22.839 --> 00:30:26.920months. Wow. Yeah, Soif you ordered this cyber truck and we're45200:30:26.000 --> 00:30:30.160lucky enough to get one, youcannot sell it in the next twelve months,45300:30:30.160 --> 00:30:32.720which is kind of clever. Yeah, because that's what they're seeing.45400:30:32.759 --> 00:30:34.400You know, the truck's priced it, I don't know what, say,45500:30:34.440 --> 00:30:37.880sixty grand next thing, you know, it's one hundred and twenty. Yeah,45600:30:37.920 --> 00:30:41.359that's what they can see happening.So so I thought that was you45700:30:41.400 --> 00:30:45.480cannot sell within the first twelve monthswithout written permission from Tesla. And if45800:30:45.519 --> 00:30:48.759you remember seeing that, I meanthat's a very good business move. And45900:30:48.799 --> 00:30:51.359if you remember they everyone signed upfor this, how to put down one46000:30:51.440 --> 00:30:53.119hundred dollars to posit it? Yeah, and so what do they use with46100:30:53.160 --> 00:30:56.400all that money? They built theirfactory. They're gig a factory that builds46200:30:56.400 --> 00:31:00.279a cyber truck. I mean itwas really smart if you look at kind46300:31:00.279 --> 00:31:03.559of how they were doing everything.But the cyber truck's kind of cool because46400:31:03.039 --> 00:31:08.119it's apparently bulletproof. Bulletproof, yes, and it's definitely arrow proof. And46500:31:08.200 --> 00:31:14.079I saw this demonstration because Rogan.Yeah I listened to Joe Rogan podcasts and46600:31:14.119 --> 00:31:18.559he shot an arrow at the cybertruck on his live podcast. Then it46700:31:18.680 --> 00:31:22.559didn't even make a dent bounce off. Oh no, the arrow split it46800:31:22.640 --> 00:31:26.200like the arrow I mean it's yeah. And then they said they've done demonstrations46900:31:26.240 --> 00:31:30.319with guns and bullets and it doesn'tpenetrate. You can even get the glass47000:31:30.480 --> 00:31:34.279bulletproof. Get this. I didhear that. But guess what, you47100:31:34.319 --> 00:31:40.079ain't rolling down your windows because theglass bulletproof glass is so heavy it doesn't47200:31:40.079 --> 00:31:42.680work. You can't roll it upand down. So there's no drive through47300:31:44.519 --> 00:31:48.640window. There's no drive through Howare you gonna go to McDonald's. You47400:31:48.640 --> 00:31:51.960know you're gonna pull up and openyour car door. I guess, like,47500:31:52.720 --> 00:31:56.559well, that's like the Tesla ModelX where it has the gold wings.47600:31:56.920 --> 00:32:00.680Oh, you can't put it ina garage? Yeah, who's thinking47700:32:00.680 --> 00:32:04.359about that? I mean, ifyou've got more than one car, you47800:32:04.359 --> 00:32:07.960can't put it in the garage.Who cares the doors won't open? You47900:32:07.000 --> 00:32:10.559know, that's a whole other thing. Speaking of cars, you know,48000:32:10.680 --> 00:32:15.960did you see where Amazon is goingto allow people to buy cars on their48100:32:15.000 --> 00:32:20.279website and car is not happy?Oh my goodness, no, No,48200:32:20.400 --> 00:32:23.359they're going to start off with HyundaiI believe right. Yeah, but starting48300:32:23.400 --> 00:32:29.920in twenty twenty four, you willbe by a car on Amazon and have48400:32:30.000 --> 00:32:35.160it either delivered to your house ordelivered to a dealership right then, where48500:32:35.160 --> 00:32:37.920you can pick it up. Kindof interesting. Huh, Yes, Sunday48600:32:37.960 --> 00:32:39.759can't get rid of them, right, So yeah, Honda is just a48700:32:39.799 --> 00:32:43.920great company. Let's talk about Walgreens, the dogs of the now. One48800:32:43.920 --> 00:32:47.720of the worst performing stocks in history. It continued its multi year decline,48900:32:47.799 --> 00:32:52.079dropped to a new twenty five yearlow last week. The dividend is now49000:32:52.200 --> 00:32:57.440nine point five percent. Now onewould expect that to be cut or eliminated,49100:32:57.480 --> 00:33:00.920which might be the final catalyst,but it only six times twenty twenty49200:33:00.920 --> 00:33:07.559four earnings, and the twenty twentyfour earnings easily covered the dividend. There's49300:33:07.559 --> 00:33:09.599no reason to cut the dividend.There's no need to cut the dividend.49400:33:09.640 --> 00:33:13.839They've got plenty of cash flow.Unless your earnings in twenty twenty five aren't49500:33:13.839 --> 00:33:17.160going to be anything lower earnings andnine and a half percent dividend, you49600:33:17.160 --> 00:33:22.200know, you're not a Dow componentunless you're one of the top companies in49700:33:22.240 --> 00:33:23.599the world. So it's going tobe interesting to see how this plays out.49800:33:24.680 --> 00:33:29.799I guess the Dow Committee would wouldlike to kick him out. But49900:33:29.920 --> 00:33:35.920since they just kicked Ge out andput Walgreens in their place just five years50000:33:35.960 --> 00:33:37.759ago. It would look kind ofsilly right to kick him out. Now50100:33:37.920 --> 00:33:42.319in the five years, get this, In the five years since Walgreens replaced50200:33:42.359 --> 00:33:47.160GE in the Dow, shares ofWalgreens have dropped seventy percent. Well,50300:33:47.200 --> 00:33:52.440shares of GE have risen forty onepercent. Well, are you kidding me?50400:33:52.680 --> 00:33:55.920Can you imagine how much higher theDow would be if you just left50500:33:55.920 --> 00:33:59.720it alone? Yeah? I meanthat's an equal way to Dow, right,50600:34:00.119 --> 00:34:04.079hundreds of points higher, hundreds offinal I know exactly what it would50700:34:04.079 --> 00:34:07.359be, but it would be noticeablyhigher. GE is doubled this year,50800:34:07.400 --> 00:34:12.039Walgreens down forty percent. Yeah,you know, uh that. I do50900:34:12.159 --> 00:34:15.719know that the Dow would not belagging the S and P five hundred like51000:34:15.719 --> 00:34:17.360it is. The Dow's up fivepoint four percent for the year S and51100:34:17.360 --> 00:34:22.480P of seventeen point six. Ifyou had GE in place of Walgreens,51200:34:22.519 --> 00:34:25.840I'm guessing the Dew would probably beup pretty close to what the S and51300:34:25.880 --> 00:34:29.880P is. It's really interesting.I do think you got to give dal51400:34:30.039 --> 00:34:35.119some some benefit of the doubt becauseGE did spin off, yes, right,51500:34:35.239 --> 00:34:38.039and spin off rarely worked, butit worked very very well. It51600:34:38.079 --> 00:34:40.599didn't spin off until after they'd beenkicked out of the Dow. They're kicked51700:34:40.599 --> 00:34:44.440out now, I know. ButGE has doubled this year most of their51800:34:44.559 --> 00:34:47.360forty percent reverse split, which isa kiss of death, I know,51900:34:47.440 --> 00:34:52.199And they spun off and it workeda double I get it. But what52000:34:52.239 --> 00:34:54.119I'm saying is they doubled this year. Most of that forty percent return happened52100:34:54.119 --> 00:34:58.199really this year? Oh yeah,you know so. I what they were52200:34:58.239 --> 00:35:02.639thinking is it's a bad coup untilthey changed some real restructuring of their corporation.52300:35:02.960 --> 00:35:07.760Bottom line is it was a realuh, terrible move, terrible sight52400:35:07.920 --> 00:35:10.599in hindsight, I'm sure they'd loveto go back. And I think you52500:35:10.679 --> 00:35:15.039got to kick out Walgreens at thispoint because I mean, what if I52600:35:15.119 --> 00:35:19.199tell you in two years Walgreens notbankrupt, are you surprised or you say,52700:35:19.199 --> 00:35:21.880oh, it's it's probably their bankruptin two Yes, I know,52800:35:22.800 --> 00:35:25.840looking at the earnings projections for twentytwenty four, I would say that's impossible.52900:35:25.880 --> 00:35:30.880But really, yeah, it's fourdollars or something to share, So53000:35:30.119 --> 00:35:35.119you know, it's like I say, the dividends is easily covered. That's53100:35:35.440 --> 00:35:37.679but you're right. It's just beena disastrous stock and it's a tough one53200:35:37.679 --> 00:35:42.480to own. And that's why wedon't focus on the Dow because one stock53300:35:43.320 --> 00:35:45.480like a Walgreens. I just can'timagine my life without Walgreens. No,53400:35:45.800 --> 00:35:49.559I can't imagine my life without Amazon. You know what I'm saying, Amazon,53500:35:49.639 --> 00:35:51.920Walgreens and QT. You need them? All right, we'll be back.53600:35:52.199 --> 00:35:55.519We'll be back right, Electric carguy needs QT. We'll be back53700:35:55.639 --> 00:36:23.079right after this break. It's awelcome back to the Money Matter Show.53800:36:23.079 --> 00:36:27.239My name is Todd Glick. I'mhere with Sebastian Borsini and Dave Surewood.53900:36:27.280 --> 00:36:30.280I want to make sure everyone's awareof where they can find all of our54000:36:30.559 --> 00:36:32.559good content. You can go toour website, Greenberg Financial dot com.54100:36:32.559 --> 00:36:36.440In the up right hand corner,you'll see all of the different icons.54200:36:36.440 --> 00:36:38.559You can click on our YouTube pageand subscribe. There you'll find all of54300:36:38.559 --> 00:36:43.239our videos, our TV shows,our weekly market updates. You can go54400:36:43.320 --> 00:36:46.519to our Facebook page and see ourposts our newsletters posted on there, as54500:36:46.599 --> 00:36:51.519well as our latest seminar that we'recoming out with on December thirteenth for federal54600:36:51.559 --> 00:36:55.360employee benefits Education. We're going tohave that held here in Tucson locally.54700:36:55.480 --> 00:36:59.960So if you want to look formore information, you can go to the54800:37:00.079 --> 00:37:05.079Greenberg Financial dot com website and clickon the federal employees tab and at the54900:37:05.119 --> 00:37:08.119bottom of the page you can getclick on the register now. It will55000:37:08.159 --> 00:37:12.280send you to our event bright page. We'll have all the information about the55100:37:12.280 --> 00:37:15.599event. You can register on therefor a mobile e ticket and then it55200:37:15.599 --> 00:37:17.800will send you an email confirmation aswell. Afterwards. If you want to55300:37:17.800 --> 00:37:20.760just sign up the old fashion way, feel free to give us a call55400:37:20.800 --> 00:37:22.360five two zero five four four fournine zero nine and we can sign you55500:37:22.440 --> 00:37:27.159up that way as well. Butall the information is on our website as55600:37:27.199 --> 00:37:30.039well as again, listen to ourpodcasts. They are recorded, they are55700:37:30.320 --> 00:37:35.519on All these radio shows are recordedon podcasts. You can listen anytime anywhere,55800:37:35.559 --> 00:37:37.960as Dave said, anywhere in theworld even and then on top of55900:37:37.960 --> 00:37:43.039that week amazing some of the emailswe get from different places really And we56000:37:43.079 --> 00:37:45.719also have the radio shows on Saturdaysix thirty, twelve and twelve thirty.56100:37:45.840 --> 00:37:50.679We also just aired a good slateof six new TV shows, so that56200:37:50.719 --> 00:37:55.880will continuously be put on the NBCKVOAstation on Sunday nights at ten thirty pm56300:37:55.880 --> 00:37:59.400after the ten PM News. Ifyou are planning on joining us for that56400:37:59.559 --> 00:38:04.880Federalmployee Benefits Centemar seminar, don't forgetto ask your employer for Form S F56500:38:05.039 --> 00:38:07.000one eight two. You might beentitled to a free day off, paid56600:38:07.039 --> 00:38:12.519day off. Yeah. The event'salso going to have paid lunch, so56700:38:12.559 --> 00:38:15.440you have free lunch, paid dayoff, and you get to learn about56800:38:15.760 --> 00:38:20.039your federal employee benefits and how theywill compliment you with your financial plan going56900:38:20.039 --> 00:38:22.760throughout retirement. You will even offeryou a free financial plan after the seminar57000:38:23.079 --> 00:38:27.239if you are interested in that.I want to take advantage of that as57100:38:27.239 --> 00:38:29.679well. And in the middle ofthe second hour, we're going to have57200:38:29.719 --> 00:38:32.960the replay that interview had with SeanMcCoy, who is the guy that's flying57300:38:34.000 --> 00:38:37.079out here to do this seminar,right, and give kind of a I57400:38:37.119 --> 00:38:39.960think of it as a as apreview of a movie, right, right,57500:38:40.039 --> 00:38:44.519exactly, a little trailer, littletrailer. Yeah, so it it'd57600:38:44.519 --> 00:38:47.199be a good event. So ifyou have a federal employee anywhere from ten57700:38:47.280 --> 00:38:52.840years less from retirement, definitely takeadvantage of that event. Or if you57800:38:52.920 --> 00:38:54.519know, a federal employee, ifyou have a federal employee in your family.57900:38:54.559 --> 00:38:57.960I know, I have a federalemployee that goes to my church.58000:38:58.320 --> 00:39:00.599And I said to her, Isaid, have you given this any thought?58100:39:00.760 --> 00:39:04.360Are you aware of this? Now? I wasn't aware. And I58200:39:04.400 --> 00:39:06.320told her what it was about.And she said, oh, I'd love58300:39:06.360 --> 00:39:08.480to go to that now, she'stwo years away from retirement. I'd love58400:39:08.519 --> 00:39:12.280to do that. And so,you know, if you have someone in58500:39:12.320 --> 00:39:15.920your family, someone you in yourneighborhood, someone at your church who's a58600:39:15.920 --> 00:39:21.599federal employee who is getting close toretirement, what an amazing opportunity. And58700:39:21.639 --> 00:39:24.519this guy's flying out here, he'sgot decades of experience. You get a58800:39:24.559 --> 00:39:28.320free launch, you get the seminar, you get a free financial plan,58900:39:28.639 --> 00:39:31.199and I promise we won't dog you. You're not going to be on the59000:39:31.199 --> 00:39:34.880list where we call you every fifteenminutes for the rest of your life.59100:39:35.519 --> 00:39:37.199I had a friend of mine whosaid he got a new cell phone number.59200:39:37.239 --> 00:39:39.480I go, my goodness, whywould you ever change yourself on there?59300:39:39.519 --> 00:39:42.599He goes, I always tired ofget in the spam calls. You59400:39:42.639 --> 00:39:45.400know, really, you think gettinga new number is going to stop that59500:39:45.880 --> 00:39:50.360because the robot can find you.Buddy. There is what I was looking59600:39:50.400 --> 00:39:54.840at. Speaking of government government debts, an unprecedented eight point two trillion dollars59700:39:54.880 --> 00:40:00.000of US government debt will be maturingin the next twelve months. Take this,59800:40:00.199 --> 00:40:06.639it's one third of all total treasuriesoutstanding currently in the next twelve month59900:40:06.719 --> 00:40:08.199mature in the next twelve month,and they're all paying interest rate a one60000:40:08.199 --> 00:40:12.079to two percent residented they're all payingone to two percent, and they're going60100:40:12.159 --> 00:40:15.320to go to four to five percent, three to five three point five times60200:40:15.360 --> 00:40:19.760more than what was net issued thisyear alone. So we're looking at a60300:40:19.840 --> 00:40:22.320huge issuance next year. The Treasuryis gonna have a lot of work on60400:40:22.360 --> 00:40:25.559their hands, the Treasury Department thatis. And yeah, those coupon rates60500:40:25.599 --> 00:40:30.159on those new treasures rolling out aregoing to be pretty pretty big. We'll60600:40:30.199 --> 00:40:34.440be buy them pooh golly. Hey. Couple interesting things this week. The60700:40:34.480 --> 00:40:37.719Solar ETF, which has just gottencollobbage down fifty percent this year, son60800:40:38.239 --> 00:40:42.760thirty percent in the last ninety days. Ten oh yeah, yeah, Sun60900:40:42.920 --> 00:40:47.199close, Sun's better, down thirtypercent in last ninety da. Higher interest61000:40:47.280 --> 00:40:52.559rates have really been playing havoc withthe solar market. The numbers don't work61100:40:52.599 --> 00:40:57.559as well when you're talking about rateswhere they are now. And however,61200:40:57.639 --> 00:41:01.599the ETF jumped ten percent on Tuesdayafter that tame CPI number. To remember,61300:41:01.679 --> 00:41:05.199we said it was four days thisweek where the S and P five61400:41:05.239 --> 00:41:07.639hundred didn't even move ten points,but on Tuesday it was up eighty four61500:41:07.679 --> 00:41:13.639points. And this that was,okay, a real nice pop. Yeah,61600:41:13.639 --> 00:41:15.960because I was I was looking atI follow this stock on the on61700:41:16.039 --> 00:41:20.440the solar front called fsl R FirstSolar, Yeah, first Solder, and61800:41:20.440 --> 00:41:22.280I saw them get a big jarof tan. Interesting, okay, a61900:41:22.280 --> 00:41:27.840big part of tan Tesla. Thisis interesting. Four percent on Monday on62000:41:27.920 --> 00:41:30.760news, you know, they gotthis cyber truck, which is just an62100:41:30.119 --> 00:41:35.239interesting I was gonna say, godawful, but it's it's tastes. I've62200:41:35.280 --> 00:41:37.239also heard. I've heard that it'sit's a lot. It looks a lot62300:41:37.239 --> 00:41:40.280different in person. So I'm gonnareserve my giant because I agree with you,62400:41:40.360 --> 00:41:44.280Dave. I think it looks likea piece of it's really work.62500:41:44.480 --> 00:41:46.440Yeah, it does not look goodon pictures, but maybe it's different in62600:41:46.480 --> 00:41:50.440person. That's what everyone tells me, well, I hear we're gonna find62700:41:50.440 --> 00:41:53.480out, because I guess it's actuallygoing to come out here and get this.62800:41:54.320 --> 00:42:00.559The cyber truck order agreement. There'sso much demand for this truck that62900:42:00.719 --> 00:42:02.320none of the three of us thinkis worth driving. I wouldn't want to63000:42:02.320 --> 00:42:07.599be seen driving it. Right.There's so much demand for this truck that63100:42:07.800 --> 00:42:13.400the order agreement prohibits the buyer fromselling in the first twelve months. Wow.63200:42:13.559 --> 00:42:16.039Yeah, So if you ordered thiscyber truck, and we're lucky enough63300:42:16.079 --> 00:42:19.880to get one, you cannot sellit in the next twelve months, which63400:42:19.920 --> 00:42:22.400is kind of clever. Yeah,because that's what they're seeing in the truck's63500:42:22.599 --> 00:42:25.159priced it. I don't know what, say sixty grand, next thing,63600:42:25.199 --> 00:42:28.039you know, it's one hundred andtwenty. Yeah, that's what they can63700:42:28.079 --> 00:42:31.199see happening. So so I thoughtthat was you cannot sell within the first63800:42:31.239 --> 00:42:36.079twelve months without written permission from Tesla. And if you remember seeing that,63900:42:36.119 --> 00:42:38.559I mean that's a very good businessmove. And if you remember they everyone64000:42:38.639 --> 00:42:40.920signed up for this, how toput down one hundred dollars to posit?64100:42:42.039 --> 00:42:45.079Yeah, and so what do theyuse with all that money? They built64200:42:45.079 --> 00:42:46.800their factory. They're gig a factorythat builds a cyber truck. I mean64300:42:47.000 --> 00:42:50.519it was really smart if you lookat like kind of how they were doing64400:42:50.559 --> 00:42:54.000everything. But the cyber truck iskind of cool because it's apparently bulletproof.64500:42:54.480 --> 00:43:00.280Bulletproof, yes, and it's definitelyerrowproof. And I saw this demonstration Rogan.64600:43:00.360 --> 00:43:05.079Yeah, I listened to Joe Roganpodcasts and he he shot an arrow64700:43:05.119 --> 00:43:07.960at the cyber truck on his livepodcast. Then it didn't even make a64800:43:08.079 --> 00:43:13.679dent bounced off. Oh no,the arrow split it like the arrow.64900:43:13.719 --> 00:43:17.320I mean yeah. And they saidthey've done demonstrations with guns and bullets and65000:43:17.360 --> 00:43:22.000that doesn't penetrate. You can evenget the glass bulletproof. Get this.65100:43:22.480 --> 00:43:25.079I did hear that. But guesswhat, you ain't rolling down your windows65200:43:25.119 --> 00:43:30.519because the glass bulletproof glass is soheavy it doesn't work. You can't roll65300:43:30.519 --> 00:43:35.599it up and down. So there'sno drive through window. There's no drive65400:43:35.639 --> 00:43:38.079through How are you gonna go toMcDonald's. You know you're gonna pull up65500:43:38.119 --> 00:43:42.840and open your car door. Iguess like, well, that's like the65600:43:43.440 --> 00:43:46.320Tesla Model X where it has thegold wings. You can't put it in65700:43:46.360 --> 00:43:52.719the garage. Yeah, who's thinkingabout that? I mean, if you've65800:43:52.719 --> 00:43:54.599got more than one car, youcan't put it in the garage. Who65900:43:54.639 --> 00:44:00.440cares the doors? You know,that's a whole other thing. Speak of66000:44:00.559 --> 00:44:04.199cars, you know, did yousee where Amazon is going to allow people66100:44:04.239 --> 00:44:07.840to buy cars on their website andcar is not happy? Oh my goodness,66200:44:07.880 --> 00:44:12.519no, No, They're going tostart off with Hyundai, I believe.66300:44:12.559 --> 00:44:15.400Right. Yeah, but starting intwenty twenty four, you will be66400:44:15.119 --> 00:44:22.480by a car on Amazon and haveit either delivered to your house or delivered66500:44:22.480 --> 00:44:25.800to a dealership right then where youcan pick it up. Kind of interesting.66600:44:25.840 --> 00:44:28.480Huh. Yes, Honday can't getrid of them, right, So,66700:44:28.760 --> 00:44:31.159yeah, Honda is just a greatcompany. Let's talk about Walgreens,66800:44:31.400 --> 00:44:35.280the dogs of the now. Oneof the worst performing stocks in history,66900:44:36.400 --> 00:44:39.360it continued its multi year decline,dropped to a new twenty five year low67000:44:39.760 --> 00:44:45.199last week. The dividend is nownine point five percent. Now one would67100:44:45.199 --> 00:44:47.519expect that to be cut or eliminated, which might be the final catalyst,67200:44:49.320 --> 00:44:53.079but it only six times twenty twentyfour earnings, and the twenty twenty four67300:44:53.119 --> 00:44:58.800earnings easily covered the dividend. There'sno reason to cut the dividend. There's67400:44:58.840 --> 00:45:00.840no need to cut the dividen.They've got plenty of cash flow. Unless67500:45:00.840 --> 00:45:05.400you're earnings in twenty twenty five aren'tgoing to be anything lower than times earnings67600:45:05.440 --> 00:45:08.239and nine and a half percent dividend. You know, you're not a Dow67700:45:08.400 --> 00:45:12.440component unless you're one of the topcompanies in the world. So it's going67800:45:12.519 --> 00:45:15.480to be interesting to see how thisplays out. I guess the Dow Committee67900:45:15.480 --> 00:45:22.000would would like to kick him out, but since they just kicked GE out68000:45:22.159 --> 00:45:25.840and put Walgreens in their place justfive years ago, it would look kind68100:45:25.840 --> 00:45:29.519of silly right to kick him outnow. In the five years, get68200:45:29.519 --> 00:45:34.159this, In the five years sinceWalgreens replaced GE in the Dow, shares68300:45:34.199 --> 00:45:38.679of Walgreens have dropped seventy percent.Well, shares of GE have risen forty68400:45:38.679 --> 00:45:44.559one percent. Are you kidding me? Can you imagine how much higher the68500:45:44.639 --> 00:45:47.079Dow would be if you just leftit alone? Yeah? I mean that's68600:45:47.119 --> 00:45:52.159an equal way to Dow, right, hundreds of points higher, hundreds of68700:45:52.480 --> 00:45:54.119I don't know exactly what it wouldbe, but it would be noticeably higher.68800:45:54.639 --> 00:45:59.840GE is doubled this year, Walgreensdown forty percent. Yeah, you68900:45:59.880 --> 00:46:04.159know that. I do know thatthe Dow would not be lagging the S69000:46:04.199 --> 00:46:07.199and P five hundred like it is. A Dow's up five point four percent69100:46:07.239 --> 00:46:09.840for the year s and P ofseventeen point six. If you had Ge69200:46:10.000 --> 00:46:15.280in place of Walgreens, I'm guessingthe Dow would probably be up pretty close69300:46:15.320 --> 00:46:17.519to what the S and P is. It's really interesting. I do think69400:46:17.519 --> 00:46:22.159you got to give dal some somebenefit of the doubt because Ge did spin69500:46:22.239 --> 00:46:25.760off, Yes, right, andthe spin off rarely worked, but it69600:46:25.800 --> 00:46:30.239worked very, very well. Itdidn't spin off until after they'd been kicked69700:46:30.280 --> 00:46:31.320out of the Dow. They're kickedout now, I know. But Ge69800:46:31.440 --> 00:46:36.800has doubled this year most of theirforty reverse split, which is a kiss69900:46:36.840 --> 00:46:39.079of death, I know. Andthey spun off and it worked a double70000:46:40.159 --> 00:46:43.280I get it. But what we'resaying is they doubled this year. Most70100:46:43.280 --> 00:46:45.119of that forty percent return happened reallythis year. Oh yeah, you know.70200:46:45.280 --> 00:46:51.079So what they were thinking is it'sa bad company until they changed some70300:46:51.119 --> 00:46:54.840real restructuring of their corporation. Bottomline is it was a real uh terrible70400:46:54.880 --> 00:47:00.360move, terrible sight in hindsight andI'm sure they'd love to go back.70500:47:00.360 --> 00:47:02.440And I think you got to kickout Walgreens at this point because I mean,70600:47:02.440 --> 00:47:07.800what if I tell you in twoyears Walgreens not bankrupt, are you70700:47:07.880 --> 00:47:10.239surprised or you say, oh,it's it's probably their bankrupt in two years.70800:47:10.280 --> 00:47:15.400I don't Looking at the earnings projectionsfor twenty twenty four, I would70900:47:15.440 --> 00:47:17.760say that's impossible. But really,yeah, it's four dollars or something a71000:47:17.840 --> 00:47:23.039share, So you know it's likeI say, the dividends is easily covered.71100:47:23.159 --> 00:47:27.760That's but you're right, it's justbeen a disastrous stock and it's a71200:47:27.800 --> 00:47:30.320tough one to own. And that'swhy we don't focus on the Dow because71300:47:30.400 --> 00:47:35.800one stock like a Walgreens. Ijust can't imagine my life without Walgreens.71400:47:36.000 --> 00:47:37.559No, I can't imagine my lifewithout Amazon. You know what I'm saying,71500:47:37.639 --> 00:47:40.039Amazon, Walgreens and QT. Youneed them? All right, we'll71600:47:40.079 --> 00:47:45.280be back. We'll be back,right, Electric car guy needs QT.71700:47:45.480 --> 00:47:57.239We'll be back right after this break. Say it's only a walking back.71800:47:57.280 --> 00:48:01.639This is the Money Matters show.We reaching with Todd Glick, Junior,71900:48:02.199 --> 00:48:07.639Sebastian Borsini, and I'm Dave Sherwood. Dean and Dylan are playing in a72000:48:07.719 --> 00:48:09.960father son golf tournament this weekend,which is one of the greatest things in72100:48:10.000 --> 00:48:14.480life, is to spend time withyour adult kid, even though they're not72200:48:14.519 --> 00:48:15.559on the same team. It's notnow, but it's not you know,72300:48:15.599 --> 00:48:21.360it's spending time with your adult childrenis, as most of the listeners know,72400:48:21.960 --> 00:48:23.840is not that easy to come byfor most of us. And it's72500:48:23.880 --> 00:48:28.400a special time when you can spendtime with This kind of takes me back72600:48:28.440 --> 00:48:30.760to Cat and the Cradle. Yeah, I think Dean and Dylan might have.72700:48:30.960 --> 00:48:32.840Yeah, they get a little bitmore time than most. But they72800:48:32.920 --> 00:48:37.400coach together, they work together,they go golf together, to the area,72900:48:37.480 --> 00:48:39.440they family together. Yeah, yeah, they're good butts, they're very73000:48:39.480 --> 00:48:42.599they are good buddies. And it'sit's but it's not. And he has73100:48:42.599 --> 00:48:46.159both of his sons, even theone who doesn't like Matthew. That's not73200:48:46.199 --> 00:48:50.320true. And don't ever tell Matthewthat. No, Deana loves both of73300:48:50.320 --> 00:48:53.559his boys and all three of themare playing golf and having a great time.73400:48:53.760 --> 00:48:57.039Well, let's recap the market andhow we looked this week. That73500:48:57.360 --> 00:49:00.360was up one point p. TheS and P was up to point to,73600:49:00.440 --> 00:49:02.840the Nasdaq was up two point fourand then Russell two thousand led the73700:49:02.840 --> 00:49:07.360way up five point four percent.Small caps had a great week. Equal73800:49:07.400 --> 00:49:09.960weighted was up three point three percent. To remind you, that was above73900:49:10.119 --> 00:49:13.800the two point two percent gain ofthe S and P five hundred, showing74000:49:13.840 --> 00:49:17.320that the equal weighted finally found away to outpace the normal weighted SMP.74100:49:17.599 --> 00:49:22.880So the broad market exposure finally sawsome bids there. Yeah, and I74200:49:22.880 --> 00:49:24.119think you made a good point inthe first hour, Todd, and that74300:49:24.320 --> 00:49:29.079is if as we go into twentytwenty four, there's likely to be more74400:49:29.119 --> 00:49:34.639interested in value stocks, more interestedin dividends, and perhaps interest still in74500:49:34.679 --> 00:49:39.719the Magnificent seven. But I'm thinkingthe Magnificent seven probably underperformed the value next74600:49:39.760 --> 00:49:44.360year. I definitely agree with thatpoint. And I was looking at a74700:49:44.400 --> 00:49:49.800really interesting chart that shows that inEurope, in Japan, and the UK,74800:49:50.039 --> 00:49:57.800the value stocks have actually outperformed theUS American value stocks since a very74900:49:57.840 --> 00:50:04.440specific date, and that date waschat GPT's release. Ever since chat GPT's75000:50:04.480 --> 00:50:07.880release back in I think it wasOctober of twenty twenty two, right,75100:50:07.960 --> 00:50:12.320we seen a huge divergence of America'svalue stocks and the rest of the world's75200:50:12.400 --> 00:50:15.159value stocks, and a lot ofthat has to do with the AI driven75300:50:15.239 --> 00:50:21.199market. Here domestically, we havethose seven Magnificent seven stocks that all have75400:50:21.320 --> 00:50:24.440an arm or some type of playinto that AI space. And since that75500:50:24.920 --> 00:50:30.199GBT was released, that whole euphoriatook over this market and the value stocks75600:50:30.199 --> 00:50:36.480were left behind. That's where youcould possibly see some contrarian alpha alpha and75700:50:36.519 --> 00:50:39.159some value stocks going into twenty twentyfour because of that huge divergence we saw75800:50:39.159 --> 00:50:42.320in twenty three. I agree withyou one hundred percent. I agree with75900:50:42.440 --> 00:50:45.119hundercent. The AI was all that, and it just it got people in76000:50:45.480 --> 00:50:52.599this frenzy that has just continued throughoutthis year. And we're finding out that76100:50:52.679 --> 00:50:58.400AI is kind of like the chargepoint charging stations right It's sucking a lot76200:50:58.400 --> 00:51:00.639of money right now and not producingmuch revenue exactly. So I don't know76300:51:00.639 --> 00:51:05.159how long that goes on before somebodywakes up to that. A small report76400:51:05.159 --> 00:51:07.559we got on Thursday was the joblessclaims number. It did tick up to76500:51:07.880 --> 00:51:14.119two hundred and thirty one thousand fromtwo hundred and twenty before the former It76600:51:14.159 --> 00:51:17.440was actually the highest since late twentytwenty one, so a little bit of76700:51:17.440 --> 00:51:22.920an increase there still, though we'relooking at historically robust labor markets, so76800:51:22.239 --> 00:51:28.159nothing to be concerned on the Onthe labor market side, job openings remain76900:51:28.280 --> 00:51:32.800well above their twenty nineteen levels invirtually every industry. So again, how77000:51:32.840 --> 00:51:37.239do you have a week labor marketwhen you have job openings? How do77100:51:37.320 --> 00:51:40.480they wear in twenty nineteen stuff?You're not going to So until we see77200:51:40.519 --> 00:51:45.000that, really purm off. Theconsumer should stay robust. If you're out77300:51:45.000 --> 00:51:47.280there listening to the show and youhad a question, what would you do77400:51:47.320 --> 00:51:52.719about it? You would email contactat Greenberg Financial dot com or give us77500:51:52.760 --> 00:51:55.800a call here at five two ohfive four four four nine nine. Sorry,77600:51:57.079 --> 00:51:59.280watched that a little bit? Okay, that's okay, I botched up77700:51:59.320 --> 00:52:02.840the inflation thing. So we hadthree questions written in this week. One77800:52:02.920 --> 00:52:07.000yes, the first one comes infrom Gary. This one says, how77900:52:07.039 --> 00:52:10.599big of a role does market researchplay in market market informed investment decisions?78000:52:10.599 --> 00:52:15.159And how can a novice individual investorsstay informed? How can they drown out78100:52:15.199 --> 00:52:19.880the noise? Dave, It's verydifficult to drownd out the noise to be78200:52:19.920 --> 00:52:23.360honest with you. And it's alsoanalyst are some are good and some are78300:52:23.400 --> 00:52:30.199not as good. I think youneed to subscribe to newsletters, a newsletter78400:52:30.320 --> 00:52:37.280to you like I think Jim Kramer'sshow on TV CNBC is free every afternoon.78500:52:37.559 --> 00:52:43.079That's kind of fun to watch.And I'm not saying Jim's not right78600:52:43.119 --> 00:52:45.360all the time or even you know, he's right more than half the time78700:52:45.400 --> 00:52:50.800hopefully, But as far as aneducation goes that that's it. The analyst.78800:52:50.920 --> 00:52:52.599You take each one with a grainof salt. I mean, I've78900:52:52.960 --> 00:52:58.719joked about analyst on this show thatstock has gone from fifty to six and79000:52:59.159 --> 00:53:02.280they now downgrade it to a cel. You know, really you need to79100:53:02.280 --> 00:53:07.639be able to take the information andformulates an opinion on your for yourself,79200:53:07.920 --> 00:53:10.199right, I agree, Yeah,Just it's all about information, just gathering79300:53:10.239 --> 00:53:15.280information from a lot of different sources. And if you see something that looks79400:53:15.519 --> 00:53:17.800out there, check the source,see who it's from. We talked about79500:53:17.800 --> 00:53:24.400that last week with that report aboutthe electric vehicles being seventeen dollars a gallon,79600:53:24.480 --> 00:53:28.239right, Yeah, we talked aboutthat, and you just got you79700:53:28.280 --> 00:53:30.880know, whenever you see something likethat, that kind of gets your attention,79800:53:30.199 --> 00:53:34.079look at who the source is andsee if maybe somebody has a horse79900:53:34.119 --> 00:53:37.199in that race. But you're lookingfor value. You're looking for names you80000:53:37.280 --> 00:53:42.840know you're looking for. I alwayslike to look for high quality companies that80100:53:42.880 --> 00:53:46.039are down in value. Walgreens isa great one to look at, but80200:53:46.079 --> 00:53:51.159you're thinking how far down can thisgo? You know? And one thing80300:53:51.199 --> 00:53:55.719that I've always done as an investor, try not to average down. If80400:53:55.760 --> 00:54:00.599you buy something at twelve and itgoes to eight, try not to buy80500:54:00.639 --> 00:54:05.039more. If you bought it atwelve and it goes to fourteen, buy80600:54:05.079 --> 00:54:09.280more of that one. Average up. You'll typically do much better when you80700:54:09.320 --> 00:54:14.960average up as opposed to averaging down. There's multiple trading rules that need to80800:54:14.960 --> 00:54:17.239be followed if you're really going tobe a trader and be successful, and80900:54:17.280 --> 00:54:20.920it's very, very hard to doit is. The only way is to81000:54:20.960 --> 00:54:23.880be very disciplined and very unemotional,and you have to learn those trades through81100:54:23.920 --> 00:54:29.280experience as well as it being whoyou are personally. I mean, there's81200:54:29.280 --> 00:54:32.760a lot of people in this worldwho are far from unemotional. They're not81300:54:32.800 --> 00:54:37.119going to be good traders, right. The best thing to do is really81400:54:37.199 --> 00:54:42.039to read books, and that's howyou find out about the historic history of81500:54:42.119 --> 00:54:45.199stock trading and find the best investorsand you learn from them. It's like81600:54:45.199 --> 00:54:49.079if you're looking at basketball and Iwant to be the NBA player, I'm81700:54:49.079 --> 00:54:52.920not gonna watch Tiger Woods all day, right, I'm gonna watch Lebron James.81800:54:52.960 --> 00:54:54.159I'm wanna watch Michael Jordan. I'mgonna watch the best of what they81900:54:54.199 --> 00:54:57.599do, how they did it,why they did it that way, and82000:54:57.639 --> 00:55:00.440then I'll follow that. It's thesame thing in stock market t If you82100:55:00.480 --> 00:55:02.519want to be that type of leveland not pay someone else to do it82200:55:02.559 --> 00:55:05.719for you, that's the type ofwork you have to put in. It's82300:55:05.760 --> 00:55:07.039like anything in this world. It'sa lot of practice. It's a lot82400:55:07.039 --> 00:55:10.280of work, and it really startswith understanding the basics and the techniques of82500:55:10.320 --> 00:55:15.280everything. Good, very good,very good, good question. I hope82600:55:15.280 --> 00:55:16.519you answered that for you. Gary. This one comes in from Aarin.82700:55:17.159 --> 00:55:22.159The tech sector has had significant fluctuationslately. What's your outlook on tech stocks82800:55:22.159 --> 00:55:28.320and are there specific companies that standout as good opportunities? So I constantly82900:55:28.320 --> 00:55:30.519talked about it. I mean,the Magnificent seven is really what you're looking83000:55:30.559 --> 00:55:35.599on for tech stocks, because that'swho are moving. And those are the83100:55:35.599 --> 00:55:40.119Netflixes, the Amazon's, Apple,Google, Navidia, Tesla, and I'm83200:55:40.119 --> 00:55:45.119missing one here, Microsoft, Microsoft, and you know, all those stocks83300:55:45.119 --> 00:55:49.920are really what's taking this market off. The thing to be concerned of is83400:55:49.960 --> 00:55:53.199what we continue to say is theequal weighted is only up three percent year83500:55:53.239 --> 00:55:58.239to date. The Nasdaq is upthirty five percent. You know, the83600:55:58.320 --> 00:56:01.360technology stocks have really done really wellthis year. You normally don't want to83700:56:01.400 --> 00:56:05.960continue you go into something that's doneso much better than the rest of the83800:56:05.960 --> 00:56:09.760market because there's a there's not alwaysa reason for that. Technology will always83900:56:09.840 --> 00:56:15.360lead the market up and down right, and it's important. You cannot have84000:56:15.440 --> 00:56:19.599a good market without technology. Technologyis the future. It's all of the84100:56:19.639 --> 00:56:24.880gadgets and stuff that we're dealing with. X l K is the technology E84200:56:24.960 --> 00:56:30.679t F. And if you havethe stomach for it, go into x84300:56:30.960 --> 00:56:34.960l K and just ride it orXLC. At this point, I mean,84400:56:35.039 --> 00:56:37.639communication services are basically the same thingXLC it has it turns out it's84500:56:37.639 --> 00:56:42.920supposed to be the communication and that'sbasically technology too. At this point.84600:56:43.079 --> 00:56:45.559Mostly I know you love that nowthe Russell two thousand. Look at that,84700:56:45.639 --> 00:56:49.719you're to date of only up twopoint two percent the Russell two thousand,84800:56:49.800 --> 00:56:53.840or small caps normally at this juncturea lot of technology stocks in there84900:56:53.840 --> 00:56:58.440too. When you have those smallcaps stocks only up two point two and85000:56:58.440 --> 00:57:01.920then you look at a Nasdaq upthird this year, you start to realize85100:57:02.039 --> 00:57:07.360those seven stocks are taken away onthe technology side too. So could there85200:57:07.400 --> 00:57:10.239be some alpha in some of thetechnology stocks that haven't gone with the Magnificent85300:57:10.280 --> 00:57:15.199seven? Possibly, But I thinkthe real play is looking at value.85400:57:16.280 --> 00:57:21.559I think we're talking about technology hereand the technology will lead the way up85500:57:21.760 --> 00:57:28.119and down. Next next, Gina. Given the recent interest rate changes,85600:57:28.360 --> 00:57:32.039how should investors adjust their portfolios,especially in terms of fixed income investments?85700:57:32.079 --> 00:57:36.440I love this question. I lovethis question. I love this question.85800:57:36.480 --> 00:57:38.559But back in we've said on theshow many times, and back in March85900:57:38.559 --> 00:57:42.639of twenty one, we went toshort term. We went everything short term.86000:57:43.480 --> 00:57:47.039In the perfect world, the fixedincome or bond portion of your portfolio86100:57:47.440 --> 00:57:52.800is the safe money. So themore conservative you are, the more money86200:57:52.880 --> 00:57:57.400you would have in the safe money. In March of twenty one, we86300:57:57.519 --> 00:58:00.920sat down and said, you know, well, if they start interest rates86400:58:00.920 --> 00:58:06.679were close to zero, they startraising interest rates. These bonds could really86500:58:06.679 --> 00:58:10.639get hammered, and we want thisportion of the portfolio to be safe.86600:58:10.960 --> 00:58:15.199So how do we do that.Well, we go to short term exchange86700:58:15.199 --> 00:58:20.559traded funds, which is what wedid. About nine months later. The86800:58:20.639 --> 00:58:23.239short term ETFs hadn't done anything,the long term ETFs hadn't done anything.86900:58:23.280 --> 00:58:28.239Everything was about where it was,and then all hell brokeers and the FED87000:58:28.320 --> 00:58:31.360started raising rates, and they raisedthem aggressively. Probably three months into that,87100:58:31.400 --> 00:58:36.320we realized that our short term ETFsthey weren't down ten percent like the87200:58:36.320 --> 00:58:38.440longer term ones, but they weredown about three. I think, how87300:58:38.440 --> 00:58:45.119do we resolve that? We resolvedthat by buying individual short term bonds,87400:58:45.239 --> 00:58:51.079treasuries corporates maturing in one to three, one to five years. We know87500:58:51.400 --> 00:58:53.719on those that were going to getthe money back no matter what happens with87600:58:53.840 --> 00:58:59.679interest rates. That isn't the casewith ETFs. So we now this was87700:58:59.719 --> 00:59:02.920with interest rates at the lowest levelthey've been in decades, right, So87800:59:04.280 --> 00:59:08.360now we've got a whole different deal. Now interest rates are near a sixteen87900:59:08.480 --> 00:59:15.400year high. The thing that Iwork on every day with clients is getting88000:59:15.480 --> 00:59:20.280those maturities extended. We wanted tobe short term for the past two years.88100:59:20.559 --> 00:59:23.360Now we want to start getting alittle bit longer term. I said88200:59:23.360 --> 00:59:27.760to a client this morning who makesa lot of his own decisions, and88300:59:27.800 --> 00:59:30.480he's been by ninety he's been rollingninety day tea bills. He's been doing88400:59:30.480 --> 00:59:32.519great because rates have been going up, up, up, up up,88500:59:34.039 --> 00:59:36.800And he said, I've got onecoming do. What do you think I88600:59:36.840 --> 00:59:39.280said, we need to go longerterm. He goes, well, there88700:59:39.320 --> 00:59:45.400is a one year t bill.I said, no, So longer term88800:59:45.400 --> 00:59:49.360to him is one year. Weactually took a position in a twenty year88900:59:49.639 --> 00:59:53.320treasury for all of our accounts,or most of our accounts, within the89000:59:53.360 --> 00:59:58.639past couple of months. We're downa smidgeing on it because rates haven't come89100:59:58.679 --> 01:00:01.480off that much. But it interestrates. If we get into this environment89201:00:01.559 --> 01:00:07.679that the market's predicting, where growthslows, interest rates start to steadily go89301:00:07.840 --> 01:00:12.719lower, you're going to wish youwould have locked in some of this sixteen89401:00:12.760 --> 01:00:17.440year high. The market is pricingin about three rate cuts at this point.89501:00:19.199 --> 01:00:21.360That doesn't mean rate they're going tobe higher, yeah, right,89601:00:21.400 --> 01:00:24.880they're probably not going to be higher. So if you're not locking in at89701:00:25.000 --> 01:00:29.840least some of this sixteen year high, I think you're making a mistake.89801:00:29.880 --> 01:00:32.360And this is something to note forpeople who don't understand how bonds bond works.89901:00:32.400 --> 01:00:37.320Is the reason we're adding duration isalso because when interest rates come down,90001:00:37.679 --> 01:00:43.480those bonds and price are going tomove more than the short term bonds.90101:00:43.480 --> 01:00:45.639They'll move higher, and there's aneasy way to do that. There's90201:00:45.719 --> 01:00:53.760a two ETFs. Todd what's theeDV eDV Ernie David Varney Varney Victor Victor90301:00:53.840 --> 01:00:59.480Ernie David Victor Empire and then TLTTom Larry Tom, and those are both90401:00:59.559 --> 01:01:04.400the Tom Larry Tom is the ETFfor the twenty year treasury, that's ice90501:01:04.440 --> 01:01:07.079shares. The other one you talkedabout is van Guard twenty four year is90601:01:07.119 --> 01:01:13.039twenty four year treasury. So thoseare easy to buy into and if I90701:01:13.639 --> 01:01:17.239would get some exposure there. I'mnot saying half year bond to portfolio by90801:01:17.280 --> 01:01:20.679any way, shape or form,because I don't know what's going to happen90901:01:20.719 --> 01:01:23.960interest rates. But we've got abouta three percent position. They're probably bringing91001:01:24.039 --> 01:01:30.599up to five here, which isin most cases about ten to fifteen percent91101:01:30.639 --> 01:01:32.719of the bond exposure, and ifnothing happens for a while, it's nice.91201:01:32.719 --> 01:01:36.119So you get a nice three percentand the TLT on the dividend,91301:01:36.159 --> 01:01:38.960you get four percent on the vdividend. It has a nice dividend while91401:01:38.960 --> 01:01:44.360you wait as well, it does. It does. So it's again the91501:01:44.400 --> 01:01:50.239one thing that we're emphasizing more thananything is try to take a portion of91601:01:50.280 --> 01:01:54.679your money and lock in this sixteenyear high. Will interest rates go higher91701:01:55.239 --> 01:01:59.920before they go lower? Who knows, right, But if they do,91801:02:00.360 --> 01:02:02.920you simply buy some more. Atsome point, interest rates are going to91901:02:04.000 --> 01:02:07.079roll over. The Fed is goingto start cutting race Todd, you just92001:02:07.119 --> 01:02:13.000said that. Right now. Theodds makers say three interest rate cuts,92101:02:13.400 --> 01:02:15.800the first one as early as possiblyMarch. Yeah, that starts happening.92201:02:15.880 --> 01:02:21.880That that TLT exposure will really donicely for you. And in the in92301:02:21.920 --> 01:02:25.960the international, you know, someof the europe they're kind of already seeing92401:02:25.960 --> 01:02:30.239the slowdown even more than the America'seconomy is. They're pricing in four rate92501:02:30.320 --> 01:02:34.800cuts over there over the next year. And they're kind of our cousins,92601:02:34.840 --> 01:02:38.840our sisters. Yeah, in termsof monetary policy. So it's interesting to92701:02:38.880 --> 01:02:43.119also keep an eye on the Eurozonein UK what they're doing over there.92801:02:43.320 --> 01:02:49.599Time to open up the door tothe EV garage. Tesla has a stranglehold92901:02:49.639 --> 01:02:53.079on the charging space and more andmore car manufacturers are jumping on board,93001:02:53.559 --> 01:02:59.280which is why originally I leased theTesla, and I suggest that other people,93101:02:59.320 --> 01:03:02.159if they're buying in electric vehicle,get a Tesla simply for that reason.93201:03:02.199 --> 01:03:07.880For the charging stations. EV peoplelike to talk to other EV people93301:03:07.920 --> 01:03:10.800about their experiences, and last weekI was talking to a doctor in a93401:03:10.800 --> 01:03:15.480parking lot over by Tima Machiel.I thought she was a walker. It93501:03:15.519 --> 01:03:19.719turned out she was a doctor.She has the brand new all electric Porsche93601:03:19.800 --> 01:03:22.199Tychon. And I should have knownshe was a doctor when she pulled up93701:03:22.199 --> 01:03:28.000in a ninety thousand dollars car ina brand new Porsche. No, she93801:03:28.039 --> 01:03:30.199walks for a living, walks fora living, walked up and down the93901:03:30.360 --> 01:03:36.559Are you saying she's a street walker? And bottom line is she had the94001:03:37.840 --> 01:03:42.199Porsche Taychan, which is their allelectric version, And I asked her about94101:03:42.280 --> 01:03:45.320charging. I said, I've gotthe Tesla because I was concerned about the94201:03:45.400 --> 01:03:49.760charging. She said, oh,it came with a Tesla adapter, so94301:03:49.960 --> 01:03:55.199that's interesting. I knew that GM, Ford, Dodge a bunch of others94401:03:55.960 --> 01:04:02.199have adopted the Tesla adapting the butif the if a car is going to94501:04:02.239 --> 01:04:06.639come with a Tesla adapter, thenI'd say, you buy what you like.94601:04:08.280 --> 01:04:12.559It's not necessary to stick to bya Tesla or stick with a Tesla.94701:04:14.039 --> 01:04:16.039She asked me if I'd taken thecar out on the road, and94801:04:16.079 --> 01:04:19.719I mentioned that the range problem,which we've talked about on the show a94901:04:19.719 --> 01:04:23.559lot, and the lack of aspare tire. I asked her if she'd95001:04:23.559 --> 01:04:25.920taken her that. She just saidshe did take it to a meeting in95101:04:25.960 --> 01:04:30.840Phoenix, but did charge it overnightat the hotel. Again, a Level95201:04:30.880 --> 01:04:33.199two charger todd at the hotel,so she was able to plug into a95301:04:33.239 --> 01:04:36.840level two charger and wake up inthe morning with a full battery and drive95401:04:36.880 --> 01:04:42.519home again. I expect more andmore hotels to be adding banks to chargers,95501:04:42.519 --> 01:04:45.280which is a space that that Teslais not interested in. Apparently.95601:04:46.159 --> 01:04:50.159I don't think a hotel's going tospend fifty two hundred thousand dollars per charger95701:04:50.559 --> 01:04:56.800when they can spend one thousand andthe level two charger for overnight is perfectly95801:04:56.800 --> 01:05:00.480adequate. It'll charge your car fortymile an hour, and so by by95901:05:00.559 --> 01:05:04.239don j early light, you're goodto go. So I see that that's96001:05:04.280 --> 01:05:12.639where that would be. Williamsonoma retaileron Fire up forty four percent this year,96101:05:13.119 --> 01:05:15.199hit a new fifty two week highon Thursday after the company reported a96201:05:15.239 --> 01:05:20.159strong quarter and get this, thehighest operating margins in the company's history,96301:05:20.639 --> 01:05:24.920in her history. Huh. Youknow, it was interesting this week.96401:05:25.119 --> 01:05:29.760You didn't hear a lot about itwas the possible government shutdown that kind of96501:05:29.760 --> 01:05:31.199went away, didn't it. Itdidn't win away, And it just kind96601:05:31.199 --> 01:05:34.159of surprised me because normally if theyhave a chance to talk about anything like96701:05:34.199 --> 01:05:38.800that, they blasted on. It'sjust funny how they just kind of the96801:05:39.519 --> 01:05:43.679got all the kind of came ontogether and arranged and then the other gay96901:05:43.760 --> 01:05:45.559government cut shotdowns have been called off. Yeah, that's what I'm saying.97001:05:45.559 --> 01:05:48.800It was kind of like a nothingburger when normally they make it a really97101:05:48.800 --> 01:05:53.400big deal. Yeah. I wonderif that's got something to do with the97201:05:53.480 --> 01:05:57.400new speaker, is he is heable to actually able to manage these caps?97301:05:57.519 --> 01:06:00.760Maybe, you know, it's justif if they want to make it97401:06:00.800 --> 01:06:03.800a big news piece, that's howthey sell. So I just was really97501:06:03.800 --> 01:06:08.880surprised that I didn't hear it somuch, like because with the debt ceiling,97601:06:09.320 --> 01:06:13.679it was a nausea, just nonstop on news constantly. Because I97701:06:13.719 --> 01:06:16.400go back to my measure of whetherthings are good in the world or not97801:06:16.559 --> 01:06:21.679is if CNN is talking about Trump, things are good, right, And97901:06:21.840 --> 01:06:26.960this week I was on the treadmilland CNN was talking about Trump, and98001:06:27.039 --> 01:06:29.079I thought, okay, good,well, that's good. Things must be98101:06:29.119 --> 01:06:32.000good, life's good, the IsraeliHamas, things must be under control,98201:06:32.079 --> 01:06:35.920and and uh, we're not goingto shut down the government, and there's98301:06:35.920 --> 01:06:41.119no terrorist anywhere because they had nothingto do but talk about Trump. It's98401:06:41.480 --> 01:06:44.400It's a good measure, though,isn't it really if you think about it.98501:06:44.480 --> 01:06:46.360I guess so, you know,because for the longest time, Uh,98601:06:46.559 --> 01:06:51.199CNN quit talking about Trump when thewhen Hamas attacked Israel, and in98701:06:51.239 --> 01:06:55.760the first week or two weeks youcouldn't get any Trump news. I felt98801:06:55.760 --> 01:07:00.920frustrated, you know. But Iturned on the True up News Network by98901:07:00.960 --> 01:07:04.840Gully last week and there was therewas all the Trump stuff was back,99001:07:04.880 --> 01:07:09.400and then we have seen China kindof come back online here. Their data99101:07:09.400 --> 01:07:15.559has been stabilizing their retail sales beatexpectations. So possibly see some you know,99201:07:15.000 --> 01:07:19.719consumer activity over there could help stockslike wind Resorts, could help stocks99301:07:20.079 --> 01:07:26.639like PDD Ali Baba going into thedefinitely the holiday shopping area as well.99401:07:26.760 --> 01:07:29.599I don't know if you ever heardof Timu, but Timu's kind of like99501:07:29.639 --> 01:07:33.119that cheap online shopping that it's gottena little popular here in America, and99601:07:33.199 --> 01:07:40.239PDD owns that. Obviously, Nikeand Starbucks have huge exposure to the China99701:07:40.360 --> 01:07:44.440market, and looking at oil theway it's priced, as long as activity99801:07:44.719 --> 01:07:47.239continues to increase for China, thatwill help give a floor to oil.99901:07:47.639 --> 01:07:53.039But obviously they're the only They're notthe only part in the global scheme of100001:07:53.079 --> 01:07:57.920things. Speaking of Ali Baba,they reported earnings this past week and they100101:07:57.920 --> 01:08:00.639were down eight percent at the openon Thursday, despite a solid quarter,100201:08:01.039 --> 01:08:08.320and why because they shelved plans tospin off their cloud computing group due to100301:08:08.599 --> 01:08:14.280US China export restrictions. I findthat fascinating that the market was able to100401:08:14.320 --> 01:08:17.600know that that was an eight percentreduction eight percent by not having a spinoff100501:08:17.960 --> 01:08:26.560and in a similar year it appliedmaterial. On Thursday night it came out100601:08:26.560 --> 01:08:30.479and they they hit a fifty twoweek high on Thursday and Thursday night they100701:08:30.560 --> 01:08:35.159reported earnings and their revenue and netincome. We're above expectations. They raised100801:08:35.199 --> 01:08:43.600guidance, but they also disclosed aJustice Department investigation into them selling ships to100901:08:43.720 --> 01:08:49.199China without proper approval to sell thosethat sent the shares down seven percent lower101001:08:49.239 --> 01:08:53.800to the open up. That's afterhitting an all time high. Excuse me,101101:08:53.840 --> 01:08:57.239a fifty two week high on Thursday. Thursday night, they report earnings.101201:08:57.359 --> 01:09:01.239Revenue is good, earnings are good. Uh, the guidance is good.101301:09:01.560 --> 01:09:05.479I stocks up a little bit.Government comes out Friday morning and says,101401:09:05.520 --> 01:09:08.640oh, oh, by the way, we're going to investigate you because101501:09:08.640 --> 01:09:14.880you've been selling chips to China withoutwithout approval. Anyway, that didn't it101601:09:14.880 --> 01:09:18.039didn't seem to dissuade the buyers though. Seven percent drop in in in Amat101701:09:18.039 --> 01:09:25.600stock, but several upgrades. Firmsraised their ratings to buy, and there101801:09:25.640 --> 01:09:30.079was a couple of price target upgradesand so a giant and nothing burger.101901:09:30.640 --> 01:09:32.399Yeah, I mean, I don'tthink that's that stock's going to be going102001:09:32.479 --> 01:09:36.239anywhere. No, you see Gapstores on Friday. Gap Stores hit a102101:09:36.279 --> 01:09:41.119three year low in May, threeyear low, but since then they've doubled,102201:09:41.520 --> 01:09:45.680jumped thirty percent on Friday thirty Imean, that's that's almost as big102301:09:45.720 --> 01:09:51.279a deal as uh it's like theygot Kanye back or something. There you102401:09:51.399 --> 01:09:56.960go, solid quarter, and youknow the interesting part about it is they102501:09:57.520 --> 01:10:02.680it looks like they're going to becomeprofitable again. But they did make cautionary102601:10:02.720 --> 01:10:10.239comments about the Christmas and this quarter, but nobody seemed to care. Well,102701:10:10.319 --> 01:10:12.920let's talk about kind of what's goingon, what's gonna happen next week,102801:10:12.960 --> 01:10:15.720because coming down on this segment,we're gonna have Sean on this next102901:10:15.760 --> 01:10:17.960segment, and then we'll have Johnon our final segment talking about a state103001:10:18.000 --> 01:10:21.359planning. Next week, we havethe big Navidi earnings. That's gonna be103101:10:21.399 --> 01:10:25.119the big power. I mean,really, that's what's gonna move markets other103201:10:25.119 --> 01:10:28.560than they have really nothing. Howdo you think what will plays out there?103301:10:28.720 --> 01:10:30.319That'll be the big market move Theearnings are gonna be off the charts,103401:10:30.319 --> 01:10:34.840and the stock's gonna open higher andthen fall. Interesting just like Lily.103501:10:35.119 --> 01:10:40.920Yeah, I Lily hit an alltime high and then drop ten to103601:10:41.039 --> 01:10:44.640fifteen percent. I'm not saying andvideo is gonna collapse, right, but103701:10:44.800 --> 01:10:47.880but I think you could see anew all time high in Nvidio and then103801:10:47.920 --> 01:10:54.279selling the rumor, sell the news. Yeah yeah, I I that's just103901:10:54.399 --> 01:10:56.960my gut take on it, andI be wrong. Maybe off to the104001:10:57.079 --> 01:11:00.800races. You know, many ofthe stocks around four nine and this is104101:11:00.840 --> 01:11:04.199what could definitely happen. We've saidthree straight weeks of the market just outperformed104201:11:04.199 --> 01:11:10.159doing crazy things. If Navidia doessomehow, I don't think it's possible.104301:11:10.199 --> 01:11:14.439But for some reason, it theearnings doesn't come out as good as expectations104401:11:14.479 --> 01:11:17.560were, that could be the startof my market rolling over. Because there's104501:11:17.600 --> 01:11:20.399such they're the They're the gorilla,the e one hundred pound gorilla in the104601:11:20.479 --> 01:11:25.239room. They will move the marketwell. Demand for their product is off104701:11:25.279 --> 01:11:28.560the charts. It just doesn't makesense how the earnings couldn't. You can't104801:11:28.560 --> 01:11:31.479imagine their earnings won't be but ifthey were, that would send the market104901:11:31.560 --> 01:11:35.520down bit. But what if they'renot spectacular enough that makes the market go105001:11:35.600 --> 01:11:39.359down. There's an awfully lot ofthings that can go wrong, right,105101:11:39.399 --> 01:11:41.600and that's really the only thing thatcan go wrong in the next week,105201:11:41.600 --> 01:11:44.039because you don't have a lot ofeconomic reports as far as I'm away,105301:11:44.039 --> 01:11:47.199windy down for Thanksgiving. Don't forgetnext week Wednesday, excuse me, Thursday.105401:11:47.199 --> 01:11:50.840We're closed. Friday. Friday ahalf day. Yeah, why aren't105501:11:50.840 --> 01:11:55.159you closed on Friday? Can't becan't be closed for four consecutive days.105601:11:55.199 --> 01:11:59.199So Friday is a half day oftrading. And don't try to trade on105701:11:59.239 --> 01:12:01.680Friday, There'll be so little volume. Meal, just get whips. There105801:12:01.720 --> 01:12:06.439won't be a lot of activity nextweek other than Tuesday after the close Wednesday105901:12:06.439 --> 01:12:11.479morning. John McCoy in the nextsegment, and then we have Jonathan Sevilia,106001:12:11.560 --> 01:12:15.800our state planning attorney, in thefinal segment. Will be back right106101:12:15.800 --> 01:12:26.359after this break. Thanks again forjoining. You know says, welcome back.106201:12:26.399 --> 01:12:28.960You're listening to the Money Matter Show. I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here106301:12:29.000 --> 01:12:30.960with Todd Glick and we have aspecial guest on the radio show today.106401:12:31.520 --> 01:12:36.760As you right know, out herewe are hosting a Federal Retirement Benefit seminar106501:12:36.840 --> 01:12:41.960workshop on December thirteenth. Oor We'reat the Tucson Association Realtors, and we106601:12:42.039 --> 01:12:45.439have a special speaker that's coming outactually that day to host the entire seminars.106701:12:45.439 --> 01:12:49.479His name is Sean McCoy. Heis with Federal Employee Benefit Advocates and106801:12:49.479 --> 01:12:55.039they'll be flying in that day talkingeverything retirement for federals. We all know106901:12:55.079 --> 01:12:59.079that it's very specialized, very unique. So he's been doing it for years.107001:12:59.079 --> 01:13:01.239He's talked thousands of different federal employeesthroughout the years. I'm gonna let107101:13:01.319 --> 01:13:04.000him go into more detail about whathe's done, how long has he been107201:13:04.000 --> 01:13:06.800in it. So welcome Sean,thank you for coming on our show.107301:13:08.479 --> 01:13:10.640Well, thanks, guys. I'mglad to be here. Looking forward to107401:13:10.640 --> 01:13:14.720making the trip out to Tucson herein December. The weather hopefully it will107501:13:14.760 --> 01:13:18.920be nice and we'll have a goodinteraction with the folks that attend. Yeah,107601:13:18.960 --> 01:13:23.000we're really looking forward to it.The things that we find so much107701:13:23.119 --> 01:13:28.520is that the unique and complex factorsthat come into play for a federal employee's107801:13:28.560 --> 01:13:34.000retirement is almost it's not talked aboutenough. And that's where people like you107901:13:34.119 --> 01:13:38.560come in because you're really the expert. So talked a little bit about how108001:13:38.600 --> 01:13:42.439you've gotten that expert status through theyears. How you know everything you know108101:13:42.479 --> 01:13:45.239about the retirement benefits because it's sucha complex space. Let's talk about how108201:13:45.279 --> 01:13:50.439you got into the business too andwhy and you're reasoning behind everything absolutely well,108301:13:50.479 --> 01:13:56.119guys. As you alluded to,the federal space for employee benefits is108401:13:56.560 --> 01:14:00.600very different than what you see inariska base plans, where sure you know108501:14:00.680 --> 01:14:05.439the non federal space. And thebiggest challenge that I found when I first108601:14:05.439 --> 01:14:10.840got into it was that there's justnot a lot of information out there generally108701:14:10.880 --> 01:14:15.479that's in a comprehensive situation. Now, my background is I've got about thirty108801:14:15.479 --> 01:14:18.520six years of experience in and aroundthe financial services industry, and for the108901:14:18.600 --> 01:14:25.000last fourteen years I've been doing federalemployee benefit briefings. I probably spoke to109001:14:25.039 --> 01:14:29.840around thirty five thousand subtle employees andprobably delivered somewhere in the excess of about109101:14:29.880 --> 01:14:32.920fourteen hundred total employee benefits seminars.So over the years, what I've been109201:14:32.960 --> 01:14:38.039able to do is compile information througha variety of sources and put them into109301:14:38.039 --> 01:14:41.880a format that I think is easyto understand, and it helped people to109401:14:42.520 --> 01:14:46.000identify a certain key points that theyneed to pay attention to based on whether109501:14:46.000 --> 01:14:49.760they're in the early, mid orlate career. I was a former securities109601:14:49.880 --> 01:14:54.239registered representative. I gave all thoselicenses up when I started doing that.109701:14:54.840 --> 01:14:59.600And so now my company Federal EmployeeBenefits Advocates. We are an educational company109801:14:59.600 --> 01:15:02.079and we are are advocates for federalemployees to make sure that they have the109901:15:02.119 --> 01:15:06.880knowledge that they need and the toolsand the resources available to help them plan110001:15:08.000 --> 01:15:11.039for their family while they're working andthen also to plan hopefully to have a110101:15:11.079 --> 01:15:15.199comfortable retirement. Yeah, and we'resuper excited to have you, like we110201:15:15.279 --> 01:15:20.199said on December thirteenth, because byworking together, you have a very unique110301:15:20.239 --> 01:15:27.399Federal Workshop booklet that you actually takeeach attendee through and so maybe spend a110401:15:27.439 --> 01:15:30.720little bit of time of what kindof lady expectations for what to expect at110501:15:30.760 --> 01:15:35.199the seminar, what are the thingsthat they're going to be supplied, and110601:15:35.640 --> 01:15:40.920how it's going to help them preparefor retirement. Well, the way that110701:15:41.000 --> 01:15:46.399the briefing is designed is it's designedto address first the issues regarding retirement and110801:15:46.439 --> 01:15:51.239so for the first employees as wellas the csrs. If any of those110901:15:51.279 --> 01:15:56.159attend, if any of those employeesattend, primarily for the FIRS, you111001:15:56.279 --> 01:16:00.239have three different sources of income comingin. For your retirement, which is111101:16:00.239 --> 01:16:04.520your retirement annuity that the federal governmentprovides to you if you meet the criteria,111201:16:05.720 --> 01:16:10.640Social Security, which is the benefitthat all Americans are available to if111301:16:10.640 --> 01:16:14.560they pay into the system and haveenough orders to qualify. And then the111401:16:14.600 --> 01:16:16.119final thing, which is the ThirstSavings Plan, which is kind of a111501:16:16.239 --> 01:16:23.279unique defined contribution program in the variousinvestment options that it has. And there's111601:16:23.279 --> 01:16:26.680been a lot of exciting things thathave happened with the TSP in the last111701:16:26.720 --> 01:16:30.159several years. But we'll go throughthose retirement benefits first, and then we'll111801:16:30.199 --> 01:16:33.199go into what we call the riskmanagement, which we think such as your111901:16:33.199 --> 01:16:40.319federal employees through life insurance, healthinsurance, the long term care. We112001:16:40.399 --> 01:16:43.359won't go into that a lot,we'll talk about it, and then we'll112101:16:43.399 --> 01:16:47.560talk about the various disability benefits.So each participant will receive a high quality112201:16:47.600 --> 01:16:53.560workbook. There'll be some exercises thatwe take people through to help them kind112301:16:53.560 --> 01:16:57.960of navigate where their benefits are andsome things that they can expect. And112401:16:58.000 --> 01:17:01.840then we will have ample time forquestions for the individuals as well, as112501:17:01.920 --> 01:17:05.800I believe you gentlemen, will beoffering a chance to have the folks sit112601:17:05.880 --> 01:17:10.680down with you afterwards and answer someindividual questions. So that's what they can112701:17:10.720 --> 01:17:14.000expect from the program. And asI said, each participant will get a112801:17:14.039 --> 01:17:16.840booklet that'll help them follow along witha copy of the slide that will go112901:17:16.960 --> 01:17:21.439through. Yeah, we will definitelydo that if an attendee is interested in113001:17:21.479 --> 01:17:26.079sitting down after that's we compile itall together. We do the financial plan.113101:17:26.159 --> 01:17:28.680We have the federal side as well, and we help them look at113201:17:28.800 --> 01:17:31.680what their retirement could look like asa federal employee with their pension and the113301:17:31.720 --> 01:17:35.840TSP and life insurance, anything theymight need during retirement. That's what we113401:17:35.920 --> 01:17:40.960do after the fact of the seminar. After all that, Yeah, and113501:17:41.399 --> 01:17:45.439the purpose of the financial plan fora lot of people is seeing the current113601:17:45.479 --> 01:17:49.960snapshot of their financial life right now, and then we can project out and113701:17:50.079 --> 01:17:55.880model based on a whole array ofdifferent variables that can come into play.113801:17:56.079 --> 01:18:00.720We can model how that plan willwork depending on different variations, different factors113901:18:00.760 --> 01:18:03.199coming into play. So that's wherethe peace of mind comes in for a114001:18:03.199 --> 01:18:06.479lot of these people. When youunderstand your benefits and then you understand how114101:18:06.479 --> 01:18:10.479those benefits are going to work foryou into the future, you can actually114201:18:10.560 --> 01:18:15.600sleep at night knowing that you're maximizingyour retirement pension as well as maximizing the114301:18:15.640 --> 01:18:19.359other benefits that come with a federalso sean based on your interactions and experience,114401:18:19.399 --> 01:18:24.359what are some unique challenges or opportunitiesthat federal employees may face in the114501:18:24.399 --> 01:18:27.800retirement planning compared to other sectors,and how can they best address them?114601:18:29.039 --> 01:18:31.840Well? First off, I thinkit's important that no matter where you are114701:18:31.880 --> 01:18:36.119in your career, your early,middle, or late career, you're going114801:18:36.159 --> 01:18:42.840to benefit from coming to this particularbriefing because the things that we'll talk about114901:18:42.920 --> 01:18:45.720will be covering all of the differentissues that you face at different points in115001:18:45.800 --> 01:18:50.319time in your career. But oneof the unique challenges that federal employees have115101:18:51.640 --> 01:18:58.680that other people don't have is theability to retire much earlier than most Americans.115201:18:59.079 --> 01:19:01.359You can retire as early is fiftyseven if you have thirty years of115301:19:01.439 --> 01:19:05.680service, and in doing so,that means that you've got a unique challenge115401:19:05.960 --> 01:19:10.960in terms of the longevity because mostAmericans don't retire until they're sixty seven,115501:19:11.359 --> 01:19:14.880so that means that's an additional tenyears of planning, and that's where the115601:19:14.920 --> 01:19:18.439TSP comes in. It's the singularmost important part of the retirement and it's115701:19:18.439 --> 01:19:23.399the only ones that the employees cancontrol. Some other things that they face115801:19:23.439 --> 01:19:27.600that are unique in that first,classified federal employees don't get a cost of115901:19:27.640 --> 01:19:31.880living adjustment until they reach sixty two, and so that can create a challenge116001:19:31.880 --> 01:19:35.479in them in terms of planning andprojecting. So the important part of that116101:19:35.600 --> 01:19:40.279is to make sure that they're utilizingthe benefits while they're employed and that they're116201:19:40.319 --> 01:19:45.159prepared for the different things that happenedafter they are employed in going into retirement.116301:19:46.079 --> 01:19:48.920Yeah, exactly, and that isvery unique in the sense of that116401:19:48.960 --> 01:19:54.279they retire fifty seven. There's alsoand then's obviously there's different parameters that they116501:19:54.279 --> 01:19:57.520can get. They can have thesupplemental Social Security and different things like that,116601:19:57.720 --> 01:20:00.680which are details that you will gointo and the presentation during their workshop116701:20:00.960 --> 01:20:04.840on December thirteenth. But it's thatidea that we just know that it's unique116801:20:04.840 --> 01:20:10.199and everything like that. So Imean also in that sense, what are116901:20:10.239 --> 01:20:14.239some of the most common misconceptions thatyou've seen federal employees have about their retiring117001:20:14.239 --> 01:20:17.880benefits and how can they be addressed. Well, I think some of them117101:20:17.920 --> 01:20:23.800have to do with the taxation ofthe annuity. A lot of folks are117201:20:23.800 --> 01:20:27.840not familiar with how they're packed,so that's one issue. Another issue is117301:20:27.840 --> 01:20:30.760that when they retire, some oftheir benefits are going to go away.117401:20:31.680 --> 01:20:34.640So some of the things such asthe ability to pay for their health insurance117501:20:34.640 --> 01:20:39.399on a pre tax basis will goaway. Some of the other benefits that117601:20:39.439 --> 01:20:43.239they have, such as the flexiblespinning account, will go away. And117701:20:43.279 --> 01:20:46.000those are items that you know theycan utilize while they're employed, but after117801:20:46.039 --> 01:20:50.159they're retired, those are benefits thatthey're not going to have available. Also,117901:20:50.199 --> 01:20:55.960you mentioned a special retirement supplement.That is another area that people are118001:20:56.000 --> 01:20:59.760not often familiar with of how theyhave to qualify for that, and the118101:20:59.760 --> 01:21:01.680fact act that if they do goout and work after they've retired and they118201:21:01.800 --> 01:21:05.640earn income, that some of thatmoney could be offset from that. And118301:21:05.680 --> 01:21:11.680then the other one that can bequite a challenge is if someone has military118401:21:11.720 --> 01:21:15.880service and whether that's they retired fromthe military, they did a stint in118501:21:15.920 --> 01:21:19.880the military, or they had somereservist time where they were deployed. Oftentimes,118601:21:20.000 --> 01:21:25.720I find that federal employees are notfamiliar with the process and the rationale118701:21:25.800 --> 01:21:30.079behind buying or making deposits for thatmilitary service. So there's some of the118801:21:30.159 --> 01:21:34.439unique things that you can expect thatwe'll cover in the briefing or the seminar118901:21:34.560 --> 01:21:39.479on the thirteenth there and TUSA.Yeah, another one that came to mind119001:21:39.600 --> 01:21:43.359was the sick leave. Right.I think a lot of federal employees they119101:21:43.439 --> 01:21:45.760walk over that just not knowing allthe rules behind that. Right, Joan,119201:21:47.119 --> 01:21:49.319I'm sorry you cut out for justone moment. What did you say?119301:21:49.399 --> 01:21:53.239I said, the sick leave,the calculations and how they might be119401:21:53.279 --> 01:21:58.960added back in. Right. Thesickle is something that since twenty ten,119501:21:59.039 --> 01:22:02.680federal employees have been able to usesickly to enhance their annuity. And it's119601:22:02.720 --> 01:22:09.600a benefit that will allow them toenhance their annuity, but it doesn't meet119701:22:09.640 --> 01:22:14.239the minimum service requirement. So I'mhere in Louisiana and we have a little119801:22:14.279 --> 01:22:15.960saying when we give you a littlesomething extra, we call it lan yet119901:22:16.520 --> 01:22:19.840and so that's what we would saythat the sickly is it's a little app120001:22:19.880 --> 01:22:25.560a little something extra that can allowyou to cash in on your sickly to120101:22:25.680 --> 01:22:29.000be paid on it for the restof your life, and also if you120201:22:29.039 --> 01:22:32.920provide a survivor benefit for the restof their lives. And then another good120301:22:33.000 --> 01:22:38.279question that we saw that from yourexperience, what are the most effective resources120401:22:38.359 --> 01:22:44.640or tools available for federal employees tooptimize their retirement plans and benefits. Well,120501:22:44.680 --> 01:22:46.960certainly I know that some of thetools that you gentlemen have available to120601:22:47.039 --> 01:22:54.439show them the analysis of their benefitsand project out and that's important. Obviously,120701:22:54.520 --> 01:23:00.359they have access to OPM dot gov, which is the administration for the120801:23:00.399 --> 01:23:05.720pension and the ones who actually calculatedand do the payout. There's TSP dot120901:23:05.760 --> 01:23:12.479gov, which is the TSP website. There's a couple of websites that your121001:23:12.520 --> 01:23:15.720listeners may not be familiar, whichis FSA, feds dot com and ben121101:23:15.720 --> 01:23:19.399e fed. Those have to dowith the Flexible Spending account. And so121201:23:19.439 --> 01:23:24.560what's coming up here very shortly isthe open season and so you know,121301:23:24.600 --> 01:23:28.239by having a chance to attend thisseminar, you know you'll pick up on121401:23:28.279 --> 01:23:31.520some information hopefully before the open season. Has closed, well, the open121501:23:31.560 --> 01:23:35.279season will actually close before the seminar, but there are some items that you121601:23:35.319 --> 01:23:39.239do want to pay attention to,and that would be making sure that you121701:23:39.319 --> 01:23:44.479make the right selection during the openseason and that you really take a look121801:23:44.520 --> 01:23:48.600at your health insurance provider, whichunfortunately this year is going up on an121901:23:48.640 --> 01:23:54.439average for the participants of about sevenpoint seven percent. And then also the122001:23:54.479 --> 01:24:00.439ability to enroll in the Flexible SpendingAccount and as well as doing review on122101:24:00.479 --> 01:24:03.279the dental programs that you're currently enrolledin. Awesome, Well, we are122201:24:03.319 --> 01:24:06.399coming up on a break here,Sean. We really appreciate you coming on122301:24:06.439 --> 01:24:12.399the show explaining your expertise and everythingto expect at our seminar. Again,122401:24:12.479 --> 01:24:15.640the workshop is a Federal Employee educationworkshop. It's going to be held at122501:24:15.680 --> 01:24:20.880the Tucson Association of Relators on Decemberthirteenth from eight am to four pm.122601:24:21.159 --> 01:24:25.239You can even possibly get a dayoff if you ask your agency for the122701:24:25.319 --> 01:24:30.279SF one eighty two and they offerthat. So again, it's going to122801:24:30.359 --> 01:24:34.640be a great event. Anyone lessthan ten years definitely take advantage and take122901:24:34.680 --> 01:24:40.199it and finally have that security thateveryone's looking for as you approach retirement.123001:24:40.439 --> 01:24:43.640Thank you everyone for listening. We'llbe back on the Moneymatter Show. Thank123101:24:43.680 --> 01:24:57.000you Sean, Thank you say it'sonly a name. Welcome back to the123201:24:57.000 --> 01:25:00.600Moneymatter Show. My name is ToddGlick. I'm here with Sebastian b and123301:25:00.680 --> 01:25:04.640Jonathan Sabelia. Always love having Jonathanon the show because we really love talking123401:25:04.680 --> 01:25:10.680about estate planning every now and thento help the people understand all the intricacies123501:25:10.680 --> 01:25:15.720of what's a really complicated space.And there's some interesting acts you wanted to123601:25:15.760 --> 01:25:18.960talk about, and this one I'venever heard of, the Corporate Transparency Act,123701:25:19.279 --> 01:25:24.600and apparently there's some pretty big implicationsfor lcs. Yeah, for everybody.123801:25:24.800 --> 01:25:30.159So well, hello, everybody,Happy Sunday. So one of the123901:25:30.239 --> 01:25:34.439very first things we wanted to talkabout today, which has implications to almost124001:25:34.479 --> 01:25:41.279everybody that has some sort of workor beneficial interest in LLC or partnership or124101:25:41.399 --> 01:25:46.399es corp. It's called the CorporateTransparency Act ETA. Okay, so what124201:25:46.600 --> 01:25:50.840is happening now? And it goesin effect one to one twenty four if124301:25:50.880 --> 01:25:57.359you are an owner or have somesort of if you're a principal or other124401:25:57.439 --> 01:26:01.399control, if you're another control personof this business, you will be required124501:26:01.439 --> 01:26:06.760to disclose significant information to the federalgovernment. What type of significant information?124601:26:06.880 --> 01:26:12.680All right, so you'll have toprovide your name, address, phone number,124701:26:13.000 --> 01:26:15.239but you'll also have to upload acopy of driver's license or passport.124801:26:16.399 --> 01:26:21.079And the purpose of the act,you know, Transparency Act is uh,124901:26:21.199 --> 01:26:26.439now, we have all these shellcompanies and people are uh laundering money.125001:26:26.800 --> 01:26:30.079So if you're you know, ifif you have a benign reason of having125101:26:30.119 --> 01:26:33.119an LLC for actual business purpose,you know, there's probably nothing to worry125201:26:33.159 --> 01:26:35.960about, except you're going to bedisclosing a lot of information to the federal125301:26:36.000 --> 01:26:41.720government. And that could be aheadache, that one reporting issue, but125401:26:42.279 --> 01:26:46.239uh, it's there to protect moneylaundering and and that other you know,125501:26:46.319 --> 01:26:50.720other criminal act. So with thatsaid, uh, it's going to be125601:26:50.720 --> 01:26:54.880a very big headache for a lotof people, okay, And a lot125701:26:54.920 --> 01:26:59.319of people feel uncomfortable disclosing their informationto the federal government. But if you125801:26:59.319 --> 01:27:03.039don't, there's gonna be fines,penalties and criminal implications if you don't you125901:27:03.079 --> 01:27:06.279don't report properly, Okay, AndI don't know what those are yep,126001:27:06.279 --> 01:27:10.319because the Act isn't in place,and in fact, I'm taking a legal126101:27:10.399 --> 01:27:14.279education class Monday, just so Ican tweak it. So, you know,126201:27:14.359 --> 01:27:18.359I have an issue because I have, ironically a company that I set126301:27:18.399 --> 01:27:24.159up LLCs with. Uh. It'suh, And I'm thinking to myself,126401:27:24.199 --> 01:27:26.680well, that's not that's one thatI really haven't used in a while because126501:27:26.680 --> 01:27:30.600I have my law firm now.So I'm thinking, oh gosh, I'm126601:27:30.600 --> 01:27:33.640gonna have to report my information underthat LLC or I'll have to report my126701:27:33.920 --> 01:27:39.520and my information or my law firm. Okay, So what are some ways126801:27:39.560 --> 01:27:43.760to get get away from it?So if you've set up an LLC before126901:27:44.239 --> 01:27:49.920one one twenty four, you willhave one year to report it to Finzenten,127001:27:50.039 --> 01:27:57.920which is the federal sector. Ifyou set it up after one one127101:27:58.039 --> 01:28:01.439twenty four, you'll have ninety daysto report that information. Okay, so127201:28:01.439 --> 01:28:04.279it's a lot faster. So whatis your options? One, we were127301:28:04.319 --> 01:28:09.840talking about how you just kind oftodd randomly set up an LLC and he127401:28:09.880 --> 01:28:14.920misspelled the name. It's the ASUSchooling, Yeah exactly, even though you127501:28:14.920 --> 01:28:17.359have a misplaced two hundred and eightymillion dollars. So you're the one with127601:28:17.399 --> 01:28:20.800the economics degree from that school.So let's not go too far. Economics127701:28:20.840 --> 01:28:26.319not finance. Don't take budgeting fromyou today, that's for sure. Anyways,127801:28:26.439 --> 01:28:30.720Well, with that said, Iwent to a different school over on127901:28:30.760 --> 01:28:32.680East Coast, so a little bitmore prestigious than both of them. But128001:28:32.800 --> 01:28:40.039let's you know. But anyways,I digress. There's still the wildcats bro128101:28:40.520 --> 01:28:46.479are I would not want to bethe wrong go nova anyway, So if128201:28:46.479 --> 01:28:49.880you dissolve the entity before the endof the year, you won't have that128301:28:49.960 --> 01:28:56.920reporting requirement. And if you wantto set up an LLC and you want128401:28:56.920 --> 01:29:00.319that one year grace period, setit up before okay, don't wait till128501:29:00.319 --> 01:29:04.079next year, because then you'll havea n ninety day window and you won't128601:29:04.079 --> 01:29:09.319get it done. Most likely you'lljust be required to do it a lot128701:29:09.399 --> 01:29:12.640faster. And if you don't getyou know, I mean, hopefully whoever128801:29:12.680 --> 01:29:15.399sets it up, whether it's yourCPA or attorney or even yourself, you128901:29:15.479 --> 01:29:18.960got to be diligent about it.Right. It's a serious thing. I129001:29:19.000 --> 01:29:21.560don't know the implications. I don'tknow what the fines some penalties are,129101:29:21.720 --> 01:29:25.680but the last thing we want isthe federal government bring it down our neck129201:29:26.439 --> 01:29:31.079right right certainly, And so alsosomething that the government is helping us with,129301:29:31.159 --> 01:29:34.920maybe not the federal government, butthe state government. The Arizona is129401:29:34.920 --> 01:29:39.199apparently going to be doing something fordependence. Tell us about it. Yeah,129501:29:39.319 --> 01:29:43.319So you know, I'm glad thatI brought you guys down. I129601:29:43.439 --> 01:29:47.199want to build you back up.So the Arizona government, well, the129701:29:47.279 --> 01:29:53.199governor just signed into law that inArizona, each person with a dependent under129801:29:53.239 --> 01:29:58.720seventeen years WI will receive a twohundred and fifty dollars rebate up to three129901:29:58.800 --> 01:30:03.159dependents, got four. Tell themto pull their own weight, so you'll130001:30:03.199 --> 01:30:06.720get about if you have three dependents, that's seven hundred and fifty dollars.130101:30:08.319 --> 01:30:12.399Not bad. You know, goinginto the holiday season, I didn't see130201:30:12.560 --> 01:30:16.079an income limit on there, butI did see as long as you had130301:30:16.079 --> 01:30:21.520taxable income in twenty twenty or twentynineteen, twenty twenty and twenty twenty one,130401:30:21.600 --> 01:30:25.880you should receive your tax credit.Nice. So yeah, and then130501:30:25.920 --> 01:30:29.479you know, we talked a littlebit about it last week. They're not130601:30:29.600 --> 01:30:32.199so much I guess on the stateplanning, but inflation across the board on130701:30:32.239 --> 01:30:38.079the irs. So for income limitson tax brackets, we're talking about about130801:30:38.079 --> 01:30:41.159a five percent increase that you canmake more and still stay in the same130901:30:41.199 --> 01:30:45.119bracket. From twenty three to twentyfour, we've also seen the contribution limits131001:30:45.159 --> 01:30:49.039increase for five hundred dollars on allthe retirement plans, the form on kes,131101:30:49.079 --> 01:30:54.720the iras, things like that.The HSA contributions increased. We also131201:30:54.760 --> 01:31:00.479saw the the exclusion rate for theestate tax get increased roughly about five Everything131301:31:00.520 --> 01:31:03.119got roughly about five percent on theinflation front. On the IRS side,131401:31:03.319 --> 01:31:10.479anything that you've seen with the newIRS tables are going into twenty twenty four.131501:31:10.560 --> 01:31:13.800Business owners are always trying to lookfor ways to reduce their tax boy131601:31:13.840 --> 01:31:16.720income legally. What are some ofthose ways that they should be looking for131701:31:16.880 --> 01:31:19.800going into twenty twenty four. Look, you know, I never say spend131801:31:19.840 --> 01:31:24.720money to save taxes, but weare getting to twelve thirty one, which131901:31:24.760 --> 01:31:27.560is the end of the year,at least the end of the calendar year,132001:31:27.600 --> 01:31:30.840not fiscal year. So what thatbasically means is that if you have132101:31:30.920 --> 01:31:35.000high income and let you have abusiness that requires equipment, you may want132201:31:35.000 --> 01:31:38.520to buy some of the equipment beforethe end of the year so you could132301:31:38.560 --> 01:31:43.520reduce that and take that bonus appreciationthat bonus appreciation is important because it goes132401:31:43.520 --> 01:31:48.199away in twenty twenty six. Allright, So you know, before the132501:31:48.199 --> 01:31:51.880twenty seventeen Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, you were only allowed to bonus up132601:31:51.880 --> 01:31:59.920to fifty percent of depreciable asset.Right away, you get a fifty percent132701:32:00.279 --> 01:32:04.600deduction anything that is over that.I think it's two thousand, five hundred132801:32:04.600 --> 01:32:12.399dollars, so, but that's gonnago right then for a while after twenty132901:32:12.479 --> 01:32:16.039seventeen, you could deduct up toone hundred percent all in that one year133001:32:16.199 --> 01:32:18.680and take that deduction, and thatwas a nice boon for a lot of133101:32:18.680 --> 01:32:23.560business owners. And you know thatdid spurt the economy. But that's going133201:32:23.600 --> 01:32:27.000to drop back down to fifty percent, you know, coming up in one133301:32:27.039 --> 01:32:31.159one, twenty six, unless Congressacts and they reinstitute it. I'm you133401:32:31.159 --> 01:32:34.560know, there's two schools of thoughtthere, you know, whether or not133501:32:34.600 --> 01:32:39.600that that should be provided. Ilike it. It's it's great. We133601:32:39.640 --> 01:32:43.800already have the deminimus, you know, especially for someone like me is a133701:32:43.800 --> 01:32:46.479business a small business owner. Youknow, as long as my asset that133801:32:46.520 --> 01:32:49.720I buy is less than two thousand, five hundred dollars, I can deduct133901:32:49.720 --> 01:32:54.159that in full, right, Butanything over two thousand, five hundred dollars134001:32:54.199 --> 01:32:56.319you have to put it on thebalance sheet, and you have and you134101:32:56.399 --> 01:33:00.399have to depreciate it by fifty startingtwenty twenty, starting twenty twenty six,134201:33:01.039 --> 01:33:03.640well, depending on what it is, So it has to be a fixed134301:33:03.680 --> 01:33:09.399asset. If it's a you know, you can't bonus everything. So I134401:33:09.399 --> 01:33:13.840got an individual who's buying a franchiseand there's gonna be a franchise fee,134501:33:13.880 --> 01:33:15.239so you amortize that. It's stillgoes on a balance sheet, but you134601:33:15.279 --> 01:33:19.319amortize it, so you can't bonusthat. And all of this has to134701:33:19.359 --> 01:33:23.279do with the plan at the endof the day, because that's a very134801:33:23.279 --> 01:33:26.880complicated picture to put in. Youhave the business side, you have your134901:33:26.920 --> 01:33:29.800personal side, and then you mighteven have your spouse's side that doesn't have135001:33:29.800 --> 01:33:32.039anything to do with anything on that. So it all comes back to the135101:33:32.039 --> 01:33:34.960financial plan. And that's why wework so well together. We're easily able135201:33:35.000 --> 01:33:39.680to talk with each other, thingsabout raw conversions, things about estate planning,135301:33:39.880 --> 01:33:42.880things like beneficiaries. I mean,that's coming up into holiday season.135401:33:42.920 --> 01:33:45.680We talk about it all the time. With talking a little bit about the135501:33:45.760 --> 01:33:48.880Christmas Tree, right. I meanwe have the trust as the set tree,135601:33:49.279 --> 01:33:53.520and the amendments are kind of likethe ornaments that go on and off135701:33:53.560 --> 01:33:56.600the tree through the years. It'snot always that you need a fresh new135801:33:56.640 --> 01:33:59.560trust. We talk to clients allthe time that come in the door and135901:33:59.600 --> 01:34:01.199we look at their trust and theysaid, we haven't updated for twenty years.136001:34:01.239 --> 01:34:03.359It doesn't mean you need a wholenew trust. It might still be136101:34:03.439 --> 01:34:06.439legitimate, just means to be updatedand reviewed. And that's what's so great136201:34:06.479 --> 01:34:11.600about Choos. You have a freereview meeting you'll have. You don't sit136301:34:11.640 --> 01:34:14.720down with anyone who has questions abouttheir trust. You know what's funny about136401:34:14.760 --> 01:34:17.159that is the other day was thevery first time I think I said,136501:34:17.239 --> 01:34:19.600you know, we're still new together, we're still getting to know each other.136601:34:19.760 --> 01:34:23.520And the first time one of yourclients reached out to me. I've136701:34:23.520 --> 01:34:25.560had some of your clients reach outand I've did work with them, but136801:34:25.560 --> 01:34:28.920I had one in particular, andwe met on Wednesday evening, the office136901:34:28.960 --> 01:34:32.319was closed and they wanted tax advice. That's all they wanted. I was137001:34:32.359 --> 01:34:36.000happy to do it, and theyprovided that document. You guys do that137101:34:36.399 --> 01:34:41.359for their for their planning, lookedat it and I go, you,137201:34:41.399 --> 01:34:45.039guys, don't need tax advice forme. This does everything. It shows137301:34:45.119 --> 01:34:47.840you what you need to pull outof your Because they were looking to roll137401:34:47.840 --> 01:34:51.279their four one K to the IRA, and they were getting ready for retirement137501:34:51.560 --> 01:34:54.319and they're saying, how do wesave on taxes? I go, this137601:34:54.359 --> 01:34:57.840document right here does everything? Right? You know, there's not you know,137701:34:57.840 --> 01:35:00.840when you're just a retiree and you'rereceiving a W two, there's not137801:35:00.960 --> 01:35:03.920very much tax planning that's involved.You guys do ninety nine percent of it.137901:35:04.199 --> 01:35:08.119I'll throw it into a ten fortyfor you, no problem, right.138001:35:08.159 --> 01:35:11.199I used to be do it.But what you what I saw there138101:35:11.359 --> 01:35:14.560was amazing. Yeah, it's ait's a fascinating tool. What John's talking138201:35:14.600 --> 01:35:17.680about is our tax planning tool wherewe can actually look at whether roth conversions138301:35:17.720 --> 01:35:21.520will actually save you money, whetherqualified charitable distributions will save you money,138401:35:21.720 --> 01:35:25.720or maybe it doesn't save you money. We can actually look and play with138501:35:25.760 --> 01:35:28.119that, and you're right. Atthe end of the day, though,138601:35:28.439 --> 01:35:31.359we being financial advisors, can't giveactual tax advice, so we always work138701:35:31.359 --> 01:35:36.800in tandem with the state planning ortax you know people because it has to138801:35:36.840 --> 01:35:41.199come from them. But you're right, the document kind of shows what needs138901:35:41.239 --> 01:35:44.760to be shown. We just workwith them to make sure it is there.139001:35:44.880 --> 01:35:46.319Yeah, look like you guys dida really good job. They look139101:35:46.399 --> 01:35:50.960like they're going to live comfortably.Certainly anything else before we go in front139201:35:50.960 --> 01:35:57.279of mine, you know, havea happy things giving everybody right, you139301:35:57.319 --> 01:36:00.079know, don't eat too much turkey. I guess all the cooking you guys139401:36:00.079 --> 01:36:05.359cooking Heck no, no, Ihave got I got family to go to139501:36:06.159 --> 01:36:11.479well. As we wrap down thisshow, obviously the where we're staying on139601:36:11.560 --> 01:36:15.079the extreme fear and greed index isright at neutral. So going into next139701:36:15.119 --> 01:36:16.279week, like we said, thereal big thing to look out for is139801:36:16.359 --> 01:36:20.239Navidia's earnings on Tuesday after the close. That's going to have markets moving.139901:36:20.479 --> 01:36:23.920Other than that, though, we'rereally not going to see anything. So140001:36:24.359 --> 01:36:27.159a short week. Have fun nextweek with your Thanksgiving, have fun with140101:36:27.239 --> 01:36:30.359family, and remember, at theend of the day, we all strive140201:36:30.439 --> 01:36:33.000to be happy, we all striveto be healthy, but we really want140301:36:33.039 --> 01:36:38.920to be as profitable. See younext week. Say it's only