How We are Mitigating Risk in these Volatile Markets

WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:03.560 Good morning everybody. It's Sunday morning, eight o'clock. This is the Money 2 00:00:03.560 --> 00:00:08.080 Matter Show. We do appreciate everybody there listens, either live right here on 3 00:00:08.119 --> 00:00:13.080 the radio, or listens on iHeartRadio, apps or wherever you're listening to our 4 00:00:13.160 --> 00:00:16.760 show podcast. If you're listening to a day two or three weeks later, 5 00:00:16.839 --> 00:00:20.839 that's great. A lot of people have been listening it. And you know, 6 00:00:20.920 --> 00:00:26.039 we're going on thirty thirty five years, thirty five years almost thirty four 7 00:00:26.120 --> 00:00:31.960 years of doing this show, thirty four years. And I look at what's 8 00:00:32.000 --> 00:00:38.359 going on today and it's like you get this feeling every once in a while, 9 00:00:39.560 --> 00:00:42.920 and that feeling is is this markey going to stop going down? Is 10 00:00:42.920 --> 00:00:46.079 the world going to continue to be such a mess? Where we're going to 11 00:00:46.159 --> 00:00:48.119 be and how we're going to get going? And what do I do with 12 00:00:48.119 --> 00:00:52.759 my money? But there is an indicator that I'm going to tell you about 13 00:00:53.479 --> 00:00:58.840 that's very interesting, and it's that fear indicator that comes from clients. And 14 00:00:58.880 --> 00:01:03.960 remember, a whole thing is risk reward. I want to tell you too 15 00:01:03.040 --> 00:01:06.599 where we are in the risk reward. You know I've been talking about for 16 00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:11.560 the last few months. At the risk was greater than the reward. So 17 00:01:11.599 --> 00:01:15.959 where are we These are things in the next twenty minutes or so I want 18 00:01:15.000 --> 00:01:19.719 to discuss. I want to tell you why I believe the market's going now. 19 00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:22.560 I want to talk to you about where our support levels are. I 20 00:01:22.599 --> 00:01:25.640 want to talk to you about what we are doing, what we've done, 21 00:01:25.760 --> 00:01:27.920 what we're doing, what we're going to do. Because if you don't have 22 00:01:27.959 --> 00:01:34.519 a plan, it's not going to help you. A plan keeps you from 23 00:01:34.719 --> 00:01:41.079 panicking, A plan keeps you from doing things at the wrong times. Fear 24 00:01:41.239 --> 00:01:44.959 and greed, and you need advisors that are going to be able to help 25 00:01:45.000 --> 00:01:51.239 you understand your plan while you're panicking or you're having emotions of fear or greed. 26 00:01:51.879 --> 00:01:53.599 Happens on the other side too, that is strong enough to tell you 27 00:01:53.640 --> 00:02:00.640 no, and that only comes with experience, and we have the experience. 28 00:02:04.359 --> 00:02:07.360 The show that's been going on thirty four years now has been brought to you 29 00:02:07.400 --> 00:02:13.680 by Greenberg Financial Group. Greenberg Financial Group is both the residented investment advisory and 30 00:02:13.719 --> 00:02:16.639 it broke a deal and registered with the SEC members of SIPICK and members of 31 00:02:17.319 --> 00:02:21.960 FINRA. We talk about a lot of things on the show. We talk 32 00:02:21.960 --> 00:02:27.240 about different strategy ideas. We talk about geopolitical, political, we talk about 33 00:02:27.280 --> 00:02:31.919 economics, but everything has risk. Everything has risks to your money, to 34 00:02:31.960 --> 00:02:38.039 your portfolio, and you need to understand every single time what you're investing in, 35 00:02:38.199 --> 00:02:40.400 why you're investing in in it, and the impact that things have on 36 00:02:40.479 --> 00:02:46.719 it. The biggest impact you've had lately has been interest rates over the last 37 00:02:46.759 --> 00:02:50.080 few years. If you just stated in those long term bond funds, you 38 00:02:50.120 --> 00:02:53.479 have made a mistake because those things are not only down last year over twenty 39 00:02:53.479 --> 00:02:58.919 percent, they're down this year another twenty percent. That because bonds are supposed 40 00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:01.039 to help you put folio, but if you don't know what type of bonds 41 00:03:01.080 --> 00:03:07.360 you're in or what you're doing, it can hurt your portfolio when rates are 42 00:03:07.360 --> 00:03:09.680 going higher. So what do we have right now? We have the Dow 43 00:03:09.800 --> 00:03:14.159 Jones this week down over two percent, the S and P five hundred down 44 00:03:14.199 --> 00:03:17.599 two and a half, now's back down two point six and the equal weighted 45 00:03:19.199 --> 00:03:23.439 S and P is now down two point four percent for the week. For 46 00:03:23.520 --> 00:03:27.080 the month, the Dow is down three point three percent, the S and 47 00:03:27.120 --> 00:03:31.879 P five hundred is down four Nasdak's down four point four and the equal weighted 48 00:03:32.439 --> 00:03:38.199 is five point six. Remember, the equal weighted is where most people when 49 00:03:38.280 --> 00:03:43.039 you're looking at a balance portfolio there because you don't only in the magnificent, 50 00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:47.639 magnificent seven stocks of technology, the big tech that's what drove the market. 51 00:03:47.680 --> 00:03:51.360 The S and P from the beginning of the year, that got it up 52 00:03:51.400 --> 00:03:57.039 to eighteen twenty percent. Well, those same things that have moved up moving 53 00:03:57.159 --> 00:04:00.560 down the Dow for the year now it's down down two point two percent. 54 00:04:02.159 --> 00:04:06.159 The S and P now is down, is up seven point two. NAZAC 55 00:04:06.199 --> 00:04:12.199 that was up almost thirty eight percent is only up twenty percent. Sounds good, 56 00:04:12.319 --> 00:04:15.000 but it is down from the highs. The Rustle is down seven, 57 00:04:15.360 --> 00:04:20.360 which is more of a smaller cap index, and the equal weighted is down 58 00:04:20.439 --> 00:04:26.120 five point three percent. I bring that up because you can't just compare yourself 59 00:04:26.160 --> 00:04:29.439 to the S and P and the NAZAC and the doll You gotta look at 60 00:04:29.439 --> 00:04:34.079 what's the most stocks. The equal weighted SMP is down five percent. See 61 00:04:34.199 --> 00:04:39.079 most people's portfolios when you look at it, you know you might be down 62 00:04:39.120 --> 00:04:42.879 a little bit. Equal you see where it is from that standpoint, all 63 00:04:43.000 --> 00:04:46.519 right, So what's driving is market down? We were I mean not too 64 00:04:46.560 --> 00:04:53.560 far. Recently, we were about forty five forty six hundred looking to breakout. 65 00:04:54.720 --> 00:04:58.839 Last three months down, August down, I taught September down, October 66 00:04:58.920 --> 00:05:03.720 down. Why are they down? Well, it started with obviously overvaluations, 67 00:05:05.120 --> 00:05:10.319 and now you're at the situation where there's been breakdowns of support. So technically 68 00:05:10.360 --> 00:05:13.720 we've been breaking down. Then we get selling on top of that, and 69 00:05:13.759 --> 00:05:18.879 now we have all the worldwide geopolitical input that's creating a real problem. And 70 00:05:18.920 --> 00:05:27.439 then nationally we have inflation, and we have a strong economy, and we 71 00:05:27.519 --> 00:05:30.240 have good earnings, and we have the FED talking next week. So where 72 00:05:30.279 --> 00:05:33.920 did this all put us? Well, right now the S and P five 73 00:05:34.000 --> 00:05:41.240 hundred is now closed down at the forty one hundred seventeen level. There is 74 00:05:41.279 --> 00:05:44.839 some support right in this area on the S and P forty one hundred. 75 00:05:45.160 --> 00:05:47.319 If it breaks down, I can see thirty nine to fifty to four thousand 76 00:05:47.720 --> 00:05:51.480 being in an area that could be bought. On the upside, you got 77 00:05:51.560 --> 00:05:56.959 some support or some resistance right as all these other support levels forty two fifty 78 00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.560 to forty three hundred, and then you got to keep going. I don't 79 00:05:59.600 --> 00:06:03.120 see rally in past maybe forty four to forty five hundred. But that is 80 00:06:03.240 --> 00:06:08.879 only an understanding that things are getting better in the Middle East. Right now, 81 00:06:09.120 --> 00:06:13.279 people are afraid of an escalation in the Middle East, which is all 82 00:06:13.399 --> 00:06:17.519 setting actually very very good earnings. I like the earnings that are coming out. 83 00:06:17.560 --> 00:06:21.360 All the tech companies surpassed what they thought were going to be earnings. 84 00:06:21.839 --> 00:06:26.759 But everyone saw a little bit of crack in something and they were selling them 85 00:06:26.759 --> 00:06:30.839 off. In Nvidia, Meta, the only one that went up higher and 86 00:06:30.879 --> 00:06:35.600 stayed up was Amazon, Microsoft, Apple. All of them up and then 87 00:06:35.680 --> 00:06:42.639 down. Okay, because that's where the psychology is right now. The psychology 88 00:06:43.079 --> 00:06:46.319 is to sell off until we have a better playing field. But you know 89 00:06:46.360 --> 00:06:51.959 how these markets work. When you feel comfortable the markets have already hit the 90 00:06:51.959 --> 00:06:57.600 bottom and turned up, and then you're waiting for a better buying opportunity. 91 00:06:58.720 --> 00:07:04.079 We invest on a risk reward basis. That's how we look at it. 92 00:07:04.120 --> 00:07:08.319 I've been doing this for a very long time. Is the risk greater than 93 00:07:08.360 --> 00:07:11.759 the reward? Is the reward greater than the risk? Well, back in 94 00:07:11.839 --> 00:07:15.360 June, when we're hitting you know, the forty five fifty, forty six 95 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:19.439 hundred level and stuff, I said, I'm not comfortable with this market going 96 00:07:19.439 --> 00:07:25.959 into August September, October. I'm taking money off the table. I'm mitigating 97 00:07:26.079 --> 00:07:30.839 risk and I'm going to go ahead and wait it out because I believe the 98 00:07:30.959 --> 00:07:35.920 risk was greater than the reward and it was turned out. Right. Well, 99 00:07:36.000 --> 00:07:42.839 now where are we to me? We're balanced. Maybe a little bit 100 00:07:42.839 --> 00:07:46.279 more risk here because of what's going on, but it definitely the risk side 101 00:07:46.319 --> 00:07:48.759 has come down and the reward siders go up, but not enough for me 102 00:07:48.879 --> 00:07:59.000 to say go in and start buying. There's not enough there that tells me 103 00:07:59.240 --> 00:08:03.040 yet I feel comfortable this is a bottom and let's go what it does tell 104 00:08:03.079 --> 00:08:07.279 me. I'm looking for a bounce bottom, which means, do I think 105 00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:09.600 we can come off this fortuty one hundred level or so if things don't get 106 00:08:09.639 --> 00:08:13.600 worse in the Middle East and move back up you know, three five percent? 107 00:08:13.720 --> 00:08:18.160 I do, And I think that's what I'm looking for, that opportunity. 108 00:08:18.720 --> 00:08:22.839 So how do you play that from here? You play that? You 109 00:08:22.959 --> 00:08:26.120 invest that way because if you had the cash on the side, right and 110 00:08:26.160 --> 00:08:35.360 you're mitigating risk, and you mitigated risk by raising cash, reducing positions by 111 00:08:35.679 --> 00:08:41.600 selling by buying the inverse funds buying insurance puts, selling calls, right, 112 00:08:41.720 --> 00:08:46.399 that's kind of how you mitigate risk. That does not mean you lose, 113 00:08:46.639 --> 00:08:50.240 don't lose money, you do, but you all set some of the losses 114 00:08:50.279 --> 00:08:54.840 by being in some of these other things while the market's dropping. Well. 115 00:08:54.879 --> 00:08:58.840 To take advantage of that, you need to lessen your mitigating risk. That 116 00:09:00.200 --> 00:09:03.960 the one thing I would do right now, and that's what we've done. 117 00:09:05.039 --> 00:09:09.240 We've been in the SDS, which is the invert for the S and P 118 00:09:09.360 --> 00:09:15.200 five hundred, and we've taken off approximately two thirds of our position and brought 119 00:09:15.240 --> 00:09:20.759 it down to what we feel is a comfortable position that coming down lower or 120 00:09:20.840 --> 00:09:24.960 sell it off and move on. And if it goes back higher, we 121 00:09:24.039 --> 00:09:28.399 have the opportunity then to buy in low on the SDS and look for other 122 00:09:28.440 --> 00:09:33.919 opportunities. We also look for some stocks that we thought maybe are opportunities here 123 00:09:35.240 --> 00:09:39.720 that we can maybe take advantage of, or maybe the indexes rebalancing the indexes 124 00:09:41.279 --> 00:09:46.480 our models just to go ahead and participate, but not at where I say, 125 00:09:46.519 --> 00:09:48.399 oh, the rewards greater than the risk. We're balanced right now, 126 00:09:48.600 --> 00:09:54.080 and in this environment of being balanced, I leaned towards the risk side of 127 00:09:54.679 --> 00:09:58.399 let's take off some of the mitigate how we mitigated risk, which will reduce 128 00:09:58.440 --> 00:10:03.279 our position on the short side, which means we won't make that much money 129 00:10:03.279 --> 00:10:07.279 of the market on those things and markets coming down. But if the market 130 00:10:07.320 --> 00:10:11.519 bounces, we're not giving back what we had on the mitigating which side, 131 00:10:11.559 --> 00:10:16.879 which gives us an opportunity to participate to the upside. I do believe we 132 00:10:16.960 --> 00:10:22.120 are setting ourselves up for maybe November December move higher. Maybe I don't know. 133 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:26.519 We'll see. Last year in December was terrible. We got clocked. 134 00:10:26.919 --> 00:10:31.000 All those good companies got killed and then they rallied big. Remember a year 135 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:35.840 ago Amazon and Google and Apple and the video. They were down in the 136 00:10:35.039 --> 00:10:39.600 low hundreds to and under one hundred, and Microsoft from the two hundreds, 137 00:10:39.600 --> 00:10:43.360 and Apple was about one eighteen win twenty in the video got down to one 138 00:10:43.519 --> 00:10:48.960 ten, one eighteen until they took off. Earnings, as I say, 139 00:10:48.960 --> 00:10:54.039 have been good. That is very good. I like to see earnings good. 140 00:10:54.320 --> 00:10:58.720 The GDP number was good four point nine percent, so there is some 141 00:10:58.799 --> 00:11:03.440 good reasons to blue leave the underpinnings. But does that mean the Federal Reserve 142 00:11:03.519 --> 00:11:05.879 and this is the flying the ointment, are they gonna look at and say, 143 00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:09.240 I gotta raise interestrates more. If they do, that's terrible. If 144 00:11:09.279 --> 00:11:15.200 they just say, listen, it's too risky for us to just raise interest 145 00:11:15.279 --> 00:11:18.200 rates. Here we see that inflation's abating a little bit, the economy is 146 00:11:18.240 --> 00:11:24.080 still pretty good. That's a nice little combination there. Oil prices are still 147 00:11:24.159 --> 00:11:28.919 high, but the livable. And let's see what's happening in the Middle East, 148 00:11:28.440 --> 00:11:31.519 because the worst thing they can do is raise interest rates. Middle East 149 00:11:31.720 --> 00:11:35.080 escalates. Next thing, you know, oil jumps over one hundred dollars a 150 00:11:35.080 --> 00:11:41.039 barrel, and our economy dumps. Nobody wants that to happen. Do I 151 00:11:41.039 --> 00:11:46.039 think they're gonna lower interestrates right now? Absolutely not. Do I think they 152 00:11:46.080 --> 00:11:48.080 can put a halt on it and see what happens. I do. I 153 00:11:48.120 --> 00:11:52.000 think what's gonna happen is allow that to happen. We're gonna filter through this. 154 00:11:52.120 --> 00:11:54.960 And my only thing is if we're gonna be involved, we're gonna be 155 00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:58.159 part of this thing going on. Let's finish it. Do not make it 156 00:11:58.200 --> 00:12:01.440 a Vietnam. Do not make it. And I kind of stand, get 157 00:12:01.639 --> 00:12:05.759 done with whatever you're going to do and figure out now we are the toughest 158 00:12:05.799 --> 00:12:13.440 if you're coming after us, you better watch out. Don't pussy foot around. 159 00:12:15.080 --> 00:12:18.240 But an escalation, you know, will be a creator a problem. 160 00:12:18.480 --> 00:12:22.120 So where are we going the moneys? We're taking off some of the things. 161 00:12:22.120 --> 00:12:26.679 If we're not finding opportunities for certain people, some of the ghost stocks 162 00:12:26.679 --> 00:12:30.120 will come down. And if they already investors, if we put it in 163 00:12:30.159 --> 00:12:35.120 the money market fund earning five over five percent right now, you can get 164 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:39.360 over five percent in the money market fund while you wait to see what happens. 165 00:12:39.559 --> 00:12:43.399 It's a perfect place. But that's also been increasing over time, not 166 00:12:43.559 --> 00:12:48.159 just with us, but across the board with a lot of investors that is 167 00:12:50.000 --> 00:12:54.240 one day going to be unleashed. Now I'm not in the situation that I 168 00:12:54.279 --> 00:12:56.720 look at and say, oh, I'm the fear of missing out, because 169 00:12:56.840 --> 00:13:01.399 as the markets are giving me opportunities, I will look to be able to 170 00:13:01.480 --> 00:13:03.480 purchase some things. If it starts breaking out, that's a different story. 171 00:13:03.720 --> 00:13:09.120 Add on if it doesn't, then we'll go from there. But I want 172 00:13:09.159 --> 00:13:16.000 to make sure that I have cash to buy if opportunities arise and markets continue 173 00:13:16.000 --> 00:13:22.120 to go down. Now, short term bonds have become a big, big 174 00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:26.960 part of our investment philosophy. Right now because we can get over five percent 175 00:13:26.080 --> 00:13:31.759 for short term government and corporate A rated plus bonds. That is a great 176 00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:35.000 thing. One year, two year, three years we get an alley average 177 00:13:35.039 --> 00:13:43.080 over five. So we've increased our fixed income portfolio, especially with the idea 178 00:13:43.120 --> 00:13:46.679 that even if we have a bounce here, I think we have a problem 179 00:13:46.679 --> 00:13:50.399 into twenty twenty four. Don't know why, don't know when. I do 180 00:13:50.519 --> 00:13:52.080 think that some of the regional banks, not the big bank so much, 181 00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:58.039 but the mid sized banks and small banks could have very many problems, especially 182 00:13:58.039 --> 00:14:01.559 as real estate comes alan start coming due, and they're at five percent, 183 00:14:01.639 --> 00:14:05.200 four and a half percent, six percent, and they're going to be moving 184 00:14:05.679 --> 00:14:09.120 to eight, eight and a half, maybe even nine percent now. The 185 00:14:09.159 --> 00:14:13.559 season real estate investor, the one that's been around a long time and has 186 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:15.720 money, they're gonna be able to do it. They have good properties, 187 00:14:15.720 --> 00:14:18.679 they have income. The ones I'm concerned about is the nouveaux rich real estate 188 00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:22.600 people. And it happens all the time. I watched it in two nineteen 189 00:14:22.679 --> 00:14:26.399 ninety eighty eight to ninety two, I watched it in two thousand and four 190 00:14:26.519 --> 00:14:31.399 to twenty ten, and the cycle continues. These people get rich they're young, 191 00:14:31.879 --> 00:14:35.679 they can't do no wrong. They've become millionaires, they're above themselves. 192 00:14:35.720 --> 00:14:39.960 They're pounding themselves on the chests, and then they get cut pooed because of 193 00:14:41.039 --> 00:14:46.879 things that they can't foresee and interesting. And then real estate starts becoming a 194 00:14:46.919 --> 00:14:50.679 problem because if they're there, if their mortgages go up and they don't have 195 00:14:50.720 --> 00:14:52.840 the money to pay the extra because they don't have the reserves, and people 196 00:14:52.879 --> 00:14:56.679 start pulling out and not paying rents, there's where your problems start and begin 197 00:14:58.440 --> 00:15:03.399 and also end, because then the banks have to take back the properties. 198 00:15:03.960 --> 00:15:07.519 People go bankrupt and go from there. We also have a problem with savings. 199 00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:13.159 Our savings has been going down and down, and people go, well, 200 00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:16.960 you know, they're spending money. Well, why they're spending more money 201 00:15:16.960 --> 00:15:20.120 because of inflation. I was listening to CNBC in the morning and they're making 202 00:15:20.159 --> 00:15:24.919 all these reasons why savings could be going down, and they tried to actually 203 00:15:24.919 --> 00:15:33.240 come up with a concept that said, you know, maybe some people just 204 00:15:33.320 --> 00:15:37.159 aren't be affected. They feel pretty good and they're just taking money and they're 205 00:15:37.159 --> 00:15:41.159 spending it because they feel comfortable that they have enough money. Another one said, 206 00:15:41.159 --> 00:15:43.879 oh, there could they feel comfortable in their jobs because there's so many 207 00:15:43.960 --> 00:15:48.200 job openings that people can get jobs. So there's take from the spendings. 208 00:15:48.519 --> 00:15:54.279 No, that's not it. It's the third reason that's also affecting the second 209 00:15:54.279 --> 00:15:56.480 pick of the reason, and the first reason they're taking money from. They're 210 00:15:56.519 --> 00:16:03.360 spending their savings accounts because of inflation, and everything costs more money. So 211 00:16:03.559 --> 00:16:06.080 if the people have a lot of money and they're remodeling or doing things, 212 00:16:06.080 --> 00:16:08.879 they're taking from their savings and buy and remodeling and doing so that's costing a 213 00:16:08.919 --> 00:16:12.399 lot more. If they're at the lower end of the spectrum, they're just 214 00:16:12.440 --> 00:16:18.000 taking that money so they can pay their bills. Okay, their credit cards 215 00:16:18.399 --> 00:16:21.759 are going higher and higher where they're getting the money from. You got to 216 00:16:21.759 --> 00:16:23.919 take from your savings to be able to pay off your credit cards because eventually 217 00:16:25.000 --> 00:16:27.679 the money you're making on a monthly basis is not going to pay your credit 218 00:16:27.679 --> 00:16:33.639 cards off. And then it's a cycle that goes like that. I do 219 00:16:33.679 --> 00:16:37.519 not know why we're trying to break the economy when the economy is so strong. 220 00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:42.919 It's a balancing act, but we have no help from a government, 221 00:16:45.360 --> 00:16:48.159 the administration. Everybody else comes up with all these reasons to spend money, 222 00:16:48.519 --> 00:16:55.039 but no reasons to cut spending. We want to give money away to everybody, 223 00:16:56.120 --> 00:17:00.000 but yet we still have our inflationary problems. You keep spending, mone 224 00:17:00.200 --> 00:17:03.200 you keep giving money away. Our inflation is not going away, and FED 225 00:17:03.320 --> 00:17:06.079 is going to stay higher for longer, and I don't want to see that. 226 00:17:07.319 --> 00:17:10.319 We're going to get a normalcy in interest rates pretty soon, which means 227 00:17:10.359 --> 00:17:12.519 the higher rates will be higher in the lower than the lower rates. For 228 00:17:12.519 --> 00:17:15.759 a very long time, our lower rates have been higher than our longer term 229 00:17:15.839 --> 00:17:22.119 rates, and that's an inverted yield curve that does set up at some time 230 00:17:22.160 --> 00:17:25.440 that you have a recession if that is to play out, and the normal 231 00:17:25.480 --> 00:17:27.759 timeframe would be first or second quarter of next year. One of the reasons 232 00:17:27.799 --> 00:17:37.039 I'm cautious, So what would stop this market from going lower? Earnings have 233 00:17:37.039 --> 00:17:38.319 been good, so that's good. That's in the back of people's minds, 234 00:17:38.319 --> 00:17:42.279 so it kind of slowed it down a little bit. We have to see 235 00:17:42.279 --> 00:17:48.559 a turnaround and and get the short set the people that are short stocks covering. 236 00:17:48.599 --> 00:17:52.519 That starts the impetus to go higher. We have to see a containment 237 00:17:52.519 --> 00:17:56.799 of this Israeli war and not an escalation of the war in the Middle East. 238 00:17:57.920 --> 00:18:03.200 Got to see our oil price is starting to basically top out and maybe 239 00:18:03.480 --> 00:18:11.599 just stay neutralized or down a little bit. We got to see a government 240 00:18:11.640 --> 00:18:15.160 that's finally got a Speaker of the House come together and start putting out, 241 00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:22.000 you know, spending bills that make sense, not inflationary. We're gonna have 242 00:18:22.079 --> 00:18:25.400 to do something to not shut down the government. That's the next big thing 243 00:18:25.440 --> 00:18:29.720 coming up, which I believe they're going to do. I hope. Otherwise 244 00:18:29.720 --> 00:18:30.759 what are they gonna do. They're gonna go get rid of this Speaker of 245 00:18:30.799 --> 00:18:33.759 the House too, if he agrees to trying to put a compromise together. 246 00:18:34.279 --> 00:18:38.920 We need compromises. If we get compromises, we can move forward. So 247 00:18:40.039 --> 00:18:44.799 the markets right now at forty one seventeen on the SMP, we got some 248 00:18:44.839 --> 00:18:48.599 support in here. I think thirty nine fifty four thousand once you know, 249 00:18:48.640 --> 00:18:52.759 it's another three percent down or so, there's good, good support there, 250 00:18:52.799 --> 00:18:53.799 and I hope it doesn't break that. If not, then it's gonna go 251 00:18:53.839 --> 00:18:56.480 down to thirty seven thirty eight hundred, which is, you know, another 252 00:18:56.519 --> 00:19:02.400 five six percent from here. Nobody wants that. Could it happen? Yes. 253 00:19:02.839 --> 00:19:04.720 So there's where the big question is. People say, well, Dean, 254 00:19:06.759 --> 00:19:08.240 you know you Tonas and Ma and June and stuff. You didn't like 255 00:19:08.279 --> 00:19:11.640 the markets. You thought the markets would go down. Why did you not 256 00:19:11.880 --> 00:19:21.039 just sell everything? My answer is crystal clear. I am not a market 257 00:19:21.079 --> 00:19:26.240 timer. We are not a speculator. We are not trading accounts in and 258 00:19:26.279 --> 00:19:33.240 out all cash down. We are setting up allocations of portfolios that are dependent 259 00:19:33.799 --> 00:19:38.920 on our client's risk reward. Now, what you cannot do is trade a 260 00:19:40.079 --> 00:19:45.759 change your risk tolerance because the markets are down, and when the markets are 261 00:19:45.880 --> 00:19:49.920 up, change back to the fear and greed. So I know I told 262 00:19:49.960 --> 00:19:55.279 you I was going to tell you an indicator. There's a handful of clients 263 00:19:55.680 --> 00:19:59.799 that always love to be aggressive, but they get scared when it gets down 264 00:19:59.839 --> 00:20:03.200 here they talk about selling everything. Everything's going to hell in hand basket. 265 00:20:03.200 --> 00:20:10.839 But on the same token they're talking about, well, the AI situation, 266 00:20:11.000 --> 00:20:12.920 the chip situation, this is good, that's good. You can't have it 267 00:20:12.960 --> 00:20:19.359 both ways. So the markets create fear and greed. Why we go ahead 268 00:20:19.359 --> 00:20:22.960 and find out what your risk tolerances is is to be able to set up 269 00:20:22.000 --> 00:20:27.799 a portfolio of when things in our opinion are very very very attractive. We 270 00:20:27.920 --> 00:20:33.799 increase the risk part of the portfolio because we think the reward is greater than 271 00:20:33.839 --> 00:20:38.079 the risk. When the risk gets greater than the reward, when the markets 272 00:20:38.160 --> 00:20:41.359 move up and we have problems out there and moving into August at the bark 273 00:20:41.400 --> 00:20:45.759 to we reduce that risk. We reduce that risk by cutting back positions, 274 00:20:47.079 --> 00:20:52.079 increasing our cash position, buying more, increasing our fixed income position, hedging 275 00:20:52.119 --> 00:20:56.079 the accounts, buy any inverse funds things that we do. Does that mean 276 00:20:56.119 --> 00:21:00.759 we do not lose money? That does not mean that it means we will 277 00:21:00.759 --> 00:21:03.279 lose money, but we will make money on the on the mitigating risk part, 278 00:21:03.400 --> 00:21:07.119 which then we sell. We have more cash, we look to go 279 00:21:07.160 --> 00:21:11.400 forward the other way, we lose less than we would have if we didn't 280 00:21:11.400 --> 00:21:15.960 mitigate risk. That's all that is. At some time you'll hear me on 281 00:21:17.039 --> 00:21:19.799 here, and I've been here many times saying that over the thirty five thirty 282 00:21:19.799 --> 00:21:23.720 four years that the reward is greater than the risk, and we're going to 283 00:21:23.799 --> 00:21:26.200 start investing. So what does that mean. Let's just take a fifty to 284 00:21:26.200 --> 00:21:33.720 fifty portfolio, say your fifty to fifty portfolio. Maybe now you got forty 285 00:21:33.720 --> 00:21:40.160 percent and one twenty percent in cash and forty percent in fixed income. Markets 286 00:21:40.200 --> 00:21:42.119 come way down, we think the reward is definitely worth it. You go 287 00:21:42.200 --> 00:21:48.319 up to sixty percent on a balanced portfolio, maybe sixty five. How depending 288 00:21:48.359 --> 00:21:52.880 on a far comes down, you keep your forty percent and you've got less 289 00:21:52.920 --> 00:21:57.640 cash. Cash is king right now. Cash goes ahead and avoids the problem. 290 00:21:57.680 --> 00:22:02.200 But you need some fixed income because as industrates come down, money markets 291 00:22:02.240 --> 00:22:07.200 will come down first, and your bond portfolio will hold you in there by 292 00:22:07.359 --> 00:22:12.119 site stepping the dramatic rays and interest rates. With long term bonds going down 293 00:22:12.440 --> 00:22:18.319 twenty percent a year, we've been able to handle and maintain basically a decent 294 00:22:19.039 --> 00:22:25.000 part of a portfolio. Everyone's returns are different. Everybody's returns are different. 295 00:22:25.160 --> 00:22:27.079 They're going to depend on what you have invested. When you get invested, 296 00:22:27.279 --> 00:22:30.640 what do you have in here? What he got in there? You know? 297 00:22:30.720 --> 00:22:34.160 And three months, four months it's not enough to look at. It's 298 00:22:34.200 --> 00:22:37.519 frustrating when the markets go down. It's frustrating for you guys, it's frustrating 299 00:22:37.559 --> 00:22:45.599 for us. And remember we're on the same side as you. Our fee 300 00:22:45.680 --> 00:22:48.240 is based on whatever the amount the money is at the end. Of the 301 00:22:48.319 --> 00:22:52.680 quarter. So if your portfolio goes down, the percentage doesn't go high, 302 00:22:52.680 --> 00:22:56.480 it stays the same the amount. The real dollars that we get are less. 303 00:22:56.559 --> 00:23:00.359 You have less dollars, We have less dollars. We want portfolios to 304 00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:04.240 go up. If the portfolio will increases by ten percent, we're going to 305 00:23:04.319 --> 00:23:08.519 increase our fees. We don't have a higher fee, but on a dollar 306 00:23:08.519 --> 00:23:14.400 amount, we go up because a percentage of a higher amount is higher than 307 00:23:14.599 --> 00:23:18.880 a lower amount. It's that simple. We're all on the same page. 308 00:23:18.160 --> 00:23:22.359 All we try to do if we buy, we sell, we reallocate, 309 00:23:22.400 --> 00:23:26.920 we do whatever we mitigate risk is to protect the portfolios in order to go 310 00:23:26.960 --> 00:23:32.480 ahead and maximize us what we can under your risk reward tolerance. And that's 311 00:23:32.519 --> 00:23:37.359 where we sit. We sit in a world of turmoil and chaos right now. 312 00:23:37.960 --> 00:23:42.160 We will not go to total cash. We will hedge our portfolios. 313 00:23:42.799 --> 00:23:47.720 We will neutralize the portfolios if you ask us to. But you have to 314 00:23:47.720 --> 00:23:52.359 be invested because we can come in on Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday 315 00:23:52.359 --> 00:23:55.400 morning, next month, whatever things get resolved, next thing. In all, 316 00:23:55.440 --> 00:24:02.119 the market is rallied a thousand points up two hundred points. NWA zac's 317 00:24:02.200 --> 00:24:04.759 up five hundred points, and because we were trying to catch the bottom, 318 00:24:06.039 --> 00:24:10.359 we miss anything turning around and going the other way. That is why we 319 00:24:10.400 --> 00:24:14.519 are where we are right now. Risk reward is balanced much better than where 320 00:24:14.519 --> 00:24:17.480 it was three months ago. If we keep going lower, then the reward 321 00:24:17.559 --> 00:24:19.920 get greater. We'll let you know, but right now we're cautious. We 322 00:24:19.960 --> 00:24:26.480 will invest cautialty, look for opportunities, and take advantage of any ups and 323 00:24:26.519 --> 00:24:30.160 downs. We'll be back. I appreciate you listening to the Moneymatter Show. 324 00:24:37.880 --> 00:24:41.319 Well, welcome back everybody. It's the Money Matter Show. And you know 325 00:24:41.400 --> 00:24:45.359 what. I know how you're feeling, because we're feeling the same way. 326 00:24:45.039 --> 00:24:48.599 Things will get better. Things will get better. As I was saying, 327 00:24:48.640 --> 00:24:52.599 remember risk reward, risk reward. Where I thought the risk was greater than 328 00:24:52.640 --> 00:24:57.000 the ward before, I'm saying it's more balanced. But I'm still cautious, 329 00:24:57.440 --> 00:25:00.839 and that just means we're not just jumping. Then we both fees here. 330 00:25:00.119 --> 00:25:04.759 I had a veteran investor call me during the week and said, Gee, 331 00:25:04.799 --> 00:25:08.039 with those treasuries at five percent, maybe we ought to take some of the 332 00:25:08.079 --> 00:25:12.480 equities and move them over to that. That's all your equities have averaged twelve 333 00:25:12.519 --> 00:25:15.799 percent for the last one hundred years. How much of your twelve percent money 334 00:25:15.799 --> 00:25:21.160 do you want to move over to five That's a good way to put it, 335 00:25:21.279 --> 00:25:25.000 Needless to say he didn't move any It should be allocation. I don't 336 00:25:25.000 --> 00:25:29.720 have a problem with someone's we risk reward strategies there and you know they've got 337 00:25:29.720 --> 00:25:32.319 a lot of cash and they you know, we only have twenty percent and 338 00:25:32.400 --> 00:25:34.359 fixed income, let's raise that to thirty percent or something of forty percent. 339 00:25:34.480 --> 00:25:37.680 No, I'm okay with that, sure if they're too low, but I 340 00:25:37.720 --> 00:25:40.880 don't like to go, oh we'll forty let's go to sixty only because things 341 00:25:40.920 --> 00:25:42.559 are bad right now, and you could you could probably make the argument this 342 00:25:42.640 --> 00:25:45.920 is not a great time to be selling equities to buy fixed income. No, 343 00:25:47.160 --> 00:25:48.839 and the money that we are that we have sold off and we raise 344 00:25:48.920 --> 00:25:52.880 put in the money market fund right now and get over five percent. That's 345 00:25:52.920 --> 00:25:56.200 nice because then that money is going to be employed again if the markets come 346 00:25:56.240 --> 00:26:00.440 down, rather than having to sell a bond to go get it the first 347 00:26:00.440 --> 00:26:03.359 time in years. We actually have somewhere we can put the money that's doing 348 00:26:03.400 --> 00:26:07.599 as well as anything. And that's really a nice thing. We see that 349 00:26:07.640 --> 00:26:10.359 with all your money managers as well, so we know there's a lot of 350 00:26:10.400 --> 00:26:14.160 dry powder out there right now earning that safe money. When those interest rates 351 00:26:14.160 --> 00:26:18.480 stop or start to decrease, that money's going to find a place, it's 352 00:26:18.480 --> 00:26:22.160 going to find a home. Well, we met with a client this past 353 00:26:22.200 --> 00:26:26.799 week that a multimillion dollar account with a handful of holding all mutual funds, 354 00:26:27.359 --> 00:26:32.680 all of his bonds when long term bonds had been for years down in the 355 00:26:32.759 --> 00:26:37.680 last three years, down like fifteen percent. Just and that's I don't know, 356 00:26:37.759 --> 00:26:41.400 I don't know. How you charge somebody a management feed to do nothing 357 00:26:41.359 --> 00:26:45.880 seems seems seems kind of weird to me. So the big headline this week 358 00:26:45.000 --> 00:26:51.240 was what probably the Mike Johnson from Shreveport, Louisiana that nobody'd ever heard of. 359 00:26:51.519 --> 00:26:52.519 That was one of them. But the other one was the US sarting 360 00:26:52.519 --> 00:26:56.680 the bomb ceria. And where we're going with all that going back to is 361 00:26:56.720 --> 00:26:59.920 what's on everybody's mind right now, right and that is why on Froddy afternoon 362 00:27:00.039 --> 00:27:03.880 we couldn't get us back into the positive stuff there because sevenone's like, well, 363 00:27:03.920 --> 00:27:06.160 we're going to the weekend Yep. We don't know what's going to happen. 364 00:27:06.160 --> 00:27:08.200 I don't want to walk in a Monday and the bombs being dropped all 365 00:27:08.200 --> 00:27:11.519 over the Middle East. Yeah, you're right, you're right. I think 366 00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:14.480 that that was the hesitancy. On Friday. It looked like it really wanted 367 00:27:14.519 --> 00:27:17.799 to come back. Market looked like it really and it's like a rubber band. 368 00:27:17.799 --> 00:27:21.119 It just keeps getting pulled further and further and further back. Yeah, 369 00:27:21.279 --> 00:27:22.920 and we've seen it where it gets worse and then you kind of know when 370 00:27:22.920 --> 00:27:26.119 the bottom is there. It just kind of goes. What I think now 371 00:27:26.240 --> 00:27:29.720 is you might have a two or three percent move up and then come back 372 00:27:29.759 --> 00:27:33.480 and test this again. But I think I think we can move up. 373 00:27:33.519 --> 00:27:37.319 We can be three four, maybe five percent of maybe six of a lucky 374 00:27:37.440 --> 00:27:40.759 six percent of here would be what about twenty fifty points, which about forty 375 00:27:40.759 --> 00:27:44.720 four fifty forty five hundred. We finished what forty one and change, I 376 00:27:44.759 --> 00:27:48.799 think said forty one Inames We had a forty two hundred was really good support 377 00:27:48.839 --> 00:27:52.640 and held there three different times, and then it broke that on Wednesday morning 378 00:27:52.640 --> 00:28:00.000 when Google reported disappointing growth in their cloud business. Although here's The interesting point 379 00:28:00.119 --> 00:28:02.519 about it in then what business cloud? Oh? I thought you said, 380 00:28:02.559 --> 00:28:06.000 cause and their cloud business. I think that the Google call meant that much 381 00:28:06.039 --> 00:28:08.599 to them. The funny part about this is Google got hammered by ten percent 382 00:28:08.680 --> 00:28:14.000 and then lost another percent or two in the following two days because of the 383 00:28:14.440 --> 00:28:18.640 slowing growth of their cloud business. Did you realize Amazon had a really good 384 00:28:18.799 --> 00:28:22.920 Friday because they came out with a report that their their cloud business was doing 385 00:28:22.960 --> 00:28:26.720 well. Microsoft had a good week because they came out and said their cloud 386 00:28:26.720 --> 00:28:30.839 business is doing well. Right, Here's the interesting part about this. Google's 387 00:28:30.880 --> 00:28:36.519 cloud business is growing faster than either of those two. That expenses. But 388 00:28:36.599 --> 00:28:38.519 Google got hammered. Is there more expenses then maybe on the other side. 389 00:28:38.559 --> 00:28:41.960 I don't know what it was, but Google got Google got hammered. There 390 00:28:41.960 --> 00:28:45.279 has to be And there's also just expectations Google might just people might think they 391 00:28:45.279 --> 00:28:51.559 should be faster already there but they sold them all though. Microsoft went down 392 00:28:51.680 --> 00:28:55.680 after it went initially up, then went down and and and then then it 393 00:28:55.799 --> 00:28:59.839 rallied the NFL another twelve points on Thursday, and then rallied again a Friday. 394 00:29:00.160 --> 00:29:03.519 Apple went down. Meta went down after being up. You know, 395 00:29:03.519 --> 00:29:07.440 when they first announced. The only one that continued up after they announced was 396 00:29:07.440 --> 00:29:11.119 Amazon, right. But also, I mean Google's issue is they're spending on 397 00:29:11.640 --> 00:29:15.000 Baird, which is that chatcheep their version of chat Get. Yeah. And 398 00:29:15.079 --> 00:29:17.519 so we saw that with Meta and they were trying to get real big and 399 00:29:17.640 --> 00:29:21.720 AI and all that and what was really virtual reality for Meta, and we 400 00:29:21.759 --> 00:29:26.920 saw the sack get a huge cut hit because of spending too much on RNA. 401 00:29:26.000 --> 00:29:30.119 Right. So now we have the same thing happening with Google. So 402 00:29:30.119 --> 00:29:33.359 maybe even though the cloud business is doing well, they're spending too much money 403 00:29:33.519 --> 00:29:37.480 and that money hasn't bring back any profitability because we know no one has really 404 00:29:37.480 --> 00:29:41.559 figured out how to be profitable chat GBT yet or you know AI yet. 405 00:29:41.000 --> 00:29:45.480 I think it's like spending like the EV charging stations, right, there's a 406 00:29:45.519 --> 00:29:48.359 buildout process. It takes time to get all of that in place, and 407 00:29:48.440 --> 00:29:52.440 when you're building it out, you're spending money on infrastructure and you're not getting 408 00:29:52.440 --> 00:29:56.839 anywhere near the revenue that you're putting out. You know how much Google, 409 00:29:56.160 --> 00:29:59.480 you know how they're in that anti trust lawsuit right now, right, how 410 00:29:59.559 --> 00:30:03.160 much do you think they paid just in general in twenty twenty one to be 411 00:30:03.200 --> 00:30:07.079 the default web browser for phones and default search engine for web browsers and phones, 412 00:30:07.200 --> 00:30:11.599 unless you think they paid in twenty twenty one twenty six billion dollars. 413 00:30:11.720 --> 00:30:14.599 Twenty six billion dollars. And that's what they're saying. Is part of that 414 00:30:14.640 --> 00:30:17.759 anti trusting too, which is going on with Google, is that they're saying 415 00:30:17.759 --> 00:30:21.599 they have an illegal monopoly on the search engine group. Well, they have 416 00:30:21.680 --> 00:30:26.000 like nineteen billion dollars. They say this year They've become a monopoly by default, 417 00:30:26.039 --> 00:30:29.039 though I don't know that it's automatic. I always go to Google when 418 00:30:29.039 --> 00:30:30.480 I want to google something, right, who goes? Yeah? But it's 419 00:30:30.599 --> 00:30:33.680 this idea that say I'm going to go Google something, but you could go 420 00:30:33.759 --> 00:30:37.960 on other ones. I mean, whose fault is that? I know I'm 421 00:30:37.960 --> 00:30:40.960 saying that's how that's what it's Because Google did so well marketing, they should 422 00:30:40.960 --> 00:30:42.799 be sued. Yeah, exactly. Obviously they just are a good company. 423 00:30:42.799 --> 00:30:45.839 Like I'm gonna Uber, but you could take a lift. It's like personal 424 00:30:45.880 --> 00:30:49.279 emails. Almost everybody has a Gmail. You know, the corporation should do 425 00:30:49.680 --> 00:30:53.599 They can become a collaborative and go to the government and say, listen, 426 00:30:55.400 --> 00:30:59.519 you cut spending by a trillion. We'll match that trillion. We cutch it, 427 00:30:59.559 --> 00:31:03.440 then we can cut the deficit by two trillion a year. Think about 428 00:31:03.480 --> 00:31:07.359 that. Well, if they cut spending by a trillion bill however, the 429 00:31:07.359 --> 00:31:11.680 corporations wouldn't have that money then to produce on our RNA. They wouldn't have 430 00:31:11.720 --> 00:31:14.519 money to I'm not looking to build. I'll talk about getting back into normal 431 00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:17.200 normalcy. They'll be able to do it. Actually, at the end of 432 00:31:17.240 --> 00:31:19.119 the day, we would be paying more of everything we do to pay that 433 00:31:19.160 --> 00:31:22.319 trillie. But here's the thing you want. You want a collaborative thing that 434 00:31:22.400 --> 00:31:26.160 we said. They don't want to just pay taxes because they know the government's 435 00:31:26.160 --> 00:31:27.559 not going to go ahead and do what they need to do. But they 436 00:31:27.759 --> 00:31:33.720 everybody, and they want a deficit down everybody. They just don't know how 437 00:31:33.759 --> 00:31:37.160 to do it. They keep spending. It would be nice to see that 438 00:31:37.359 --> 00:31:40.000 something. It's not gonna happen. But if you got all the I mean, 439 00:31:40.240 --> 00:31:44.720 what's a few hundred billion dollars most of these companies, if it's going 440 00:31:44.759 --> 00:31:48.640 towards something that's going to help stimulate the economy. Apple sitting on trillion dollars 441 00:31:48.640 --> 00:31:52.160 of cash right right, and the biggest problem we have on the federal level 442 00:31:52.279 --> 00:31:56.359 is that what used to be twenty five percent of our budget or twenty five 443 00:31:56.359 --> 00:32:00.440 percent of our budget is now interest interest expense. And that's not no and 444 00:32:00.480 --> 00:32:05.599 that that's money that used to be used for defense and for other things that's 445 00:32:05.640 --> 00:32:08.599 now going to have to go to interest. Trying to get the federal debt 446 00:32:08.799 --> 00:32:14.359 lower, to me seems like it's probably, boy, I don't know how 447 00:32:14.359 --> 00:32:15.880 you do it. It's beyond me. I wanted to take a one second 448 00:32:15.920 --> 00:32:19.480 on the S and P market because when you look at the charts here, 449 00:32:19.519 --> 00:32:22.640 you can see that there's a there's an elliot wave forming on this chart. 450 00:32:22.640 --> 00:32:27.599 And so what an elliot wave is it? It's five legs, it's down 451 00:32:27.759 --> 00:32:30.359 up, down, up, down right, and that's It's just very simple. 452 00:32:31.640 --> 00:32:37.319 Nineteen eighties, he had one good call. One Well, what I'm 453 00:32:37.319 --> 00:32:40.480 saying, well, hang on the elliot wave thing. Since nineteen eighty seven, 454 00:32:42.960 --> 00:32:47.200 ever ever was right again. He was always barrashed the whole time. 455 00:32:47.480 --> 00:32:52.480 After nineteen eighty seven and after two thousand, Oh my god, to get 456 00:32:52.480 --> 00:32:54.079 it. I can care less about elliot waves that way. You've brought it 457 00:32:54.160 --> 00:32:58.640 up, and I'm talking about the actual technical chart of it, because you 458 00:32:58.680 --> 00:33:00.519 could see back when twenty twenty one, when the market started the drop, 459 00:33:00.559 --> 00:33:05.240 there was five legs down, up, down, up, down, and 460 00:33:05.359 --> 00:33:07.839 right now we're on the fifth leg of the down. The reason we're going 461 00:33:07.880 --> 00:33:10.240 to bring it up is we are hitting a very major support level at forty 462 00:33:10.279 --> 00:33:14.319 one hundred in the S and P. We've had already five legs. It 463 00:33:14.519 --> 00:33:16.759 is a time where you would expect the market to find some type of footing. 464 00:33:16.839 --> 00:33:21.279 The oscillator is the most oversold that it has been all year, right, 465 00:33:21.279 --> 00:33:23.599 and that's been a good indicator we are Dean. I think we would 466 00:33:23.640 --> 00:33:27.640 have bounced on Friday if it wasn't Friday. Yes, that's what it felt 467 00:33:27.640 --> 00:33:30.240 like to me. It was kind of interesting the dovestocks. You mentioned Microsoft, 468 00:33:30.359 --> 00:33:34.440 It actually finished a week up four percent, pretty good week. But 469 00:33:34.759 --> 00:33:37.799 the big winner on the week of the dove stocks Verizon, a stock that 470 00:33:37.839 --> 00:33:42.359 has done nothing because it didn't go down for how many years up eight and 471 00:33:42.400 --> 00:33:44.880 a half percent. Well, you know what, David, I want to 472 00:33:44.880 --> 00:33:47.480 step back. You know, we're talking about what's going on and stuff. 473 00:33:47.880 --> 00:33:50.960 You know, Oh, it could be a good thing. So what we 474 00:33:51.079 --> 00:33:53.799 do here is what we discuss the model is you mitigate the mitigating risk we 475 00:33:53.880 --> 00:33:59.759 had on we stopped reducing what we've been doing for mitigating risk, the puts 476 00:33:59.799 --> 00:34:04.160 up head on the insurance puts, we've rolled those out. Okay, give 477 00:34:04.240 --> 00:34:07.679 us some more time value in them. The inverse funds, we've gone ahead 478 00:34:07.679 --> 00:34:15.119 and cut that position down. I thought two thirds, okay, by fifty. 479 00:34:15.920 --> 00:34:20.519 And then what we've also done is the calls that we have written stop 480 00:34:20.559 --> 00:34:24.960 buying those back. Give the market an opportunity to rally again. By just 481 00:34:25.000 --> 00:34:30.440 taking off the mitigating risk, it helps us city upside. Now if we 482 00:34:30.480 --> 00:34:32.400 get lower and lower, then we and we think the rewards greater. Then 483 00:34:32.400 --> 00:34:36.679 we can take advantage of some opportunities. And if people a little bit more 484 00:34:36.719 --> 00:34:38.639 aggressive, we are taking advantage at something. If they were under invested, 485 00:34:38.679 --> 00:34:44.280 we're putting a little money to work for them too. Everyone's everyone's thing is 486 00:34:44.320 --> 00:34:47.199 different, though, and at time like this, the primary thing you ought 487 00:34:47.239 --> 00:34:53.400 to be doing is looking at taking defensive positions, reducing defensive positions and increasing 488 00:34:53.679 --> 00:34:59.320 offensive positions. Not not all in, but if you've been cautious, if 489 00:34:59.320 --> 00:35:01.400 you're sitting with some gosh, this is the place to start putting it to 490 00:35:01.440 --> 00:35:07.360 work talking about defensive positions. Uh, you know, Raytheon very attractive to 491 00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:09.840 me right now with the fact that it's come down for what one O six, 492 00:35:09.880 --> 00:35:13.559 one away, one ten and they got down to sixty eight, it's 493 00:35:13.599 --> 00:35:20.679 bounced back up here. Well, what's so funny? Okay, up, 494 00:35:21.400 --> 00:35:28.760 good, you're listening. I'm definitely listening to where in the seventies here because 495 00:35:28.920 --> 00:35:32.119 guess what, we're gonna have to keep supplying what missiles? Who makes the 496 00:35:32.159 --> 00:35:37.639 iron missiles? Onything on, Raytheon, and so even if they weren't using 497 00:35:37.679 --> 00:35:39.840 them, they're using them now and they're gonna get have to get replenished. 498 00:35:40.320 --> 00:35:45.119 Interesting though, what I've what we'll call we'll call back is something about how 499 00:35:45.199 --> 00:35:50.280 Raytheon does it now rather than giving straight the money what we do and when 500 00:35:50.280 --> 00:35:52.239 we come back, I'm gonna I'll give you a little bit of insight on 501 00:35:52.280 --> 00:35:55.039 that. This is the Money Battery Show and we all appreciate you listening. 502 00:35:57.519 --> 00:36:12.039 Say it's only the Hey, welcome back to the Money Mattery Show with Dave 503 00:36:12.119 --> 00:36:16.800 Surewood, Dylan Greenberg, Todd Click. Yeah, it's glick. I went 504 00:36:16.840 --> 00:36:20.760 back to my to a guy I had a college good friend of mind Todd 505 00:36:20.840 --> 00:36:22.719 Lucky. That's what they almost said, is that what happens when you get 506 00:36:22.719 --> 00:36:25.360 older, just names pop back in your head that you're just so used to 507 00:36:25.800 --> 00:36:30.639 make. That's what people. Yeah, this age not making stuff up. 508 00:36:30.679 --> 00:36:34.079 I had a great friend, really close friend named Todd Lucky, and that 509 00:36:34.440 --> 00:36:37.400 just popped into my head. Name Todd Lucky. Yeah, that was his 510 00:36:37.480 --> 00:36:40.199 name. Oh, for goodness, and myself, Dean, I can't remember 511 00:36:42.599 --> 00:36:45.199 well for those for those listening, we obviously want to get a plug to 512 00:36:45.280 --> 00:36:50.679 our Federal Employee event that's coming out December thirteenth, that's gonna be here in 513 00:36:50.719 --> 00:36:53.000 Tucson. Already gotten a lot of people signed up for the event, a 514 00:36:53.000 --> 00:36:57.480 lot of interest, not a lot of resources here in Tucson available to federal 515 00:36:57.480 --> 00:37:00.920 employees. So and that's literally what I hear from the actual federal employee for 516 00:37:00.920 --> 00:37:05.119 people signing up right now, they're like, we're so glad someone here locally 517 00:37:05.159 --> 00:37:08.239 able to educate us and go through all of our benefits. So again we're 518 00:37:08.239 --> 00:37:13.760 flying someone out a specialist to have this education semin are brought to you. 519 00:37:13.800 --> 00:37:17.400 It's completely free for federal employees. If you're anywhere within ten years before retirement, 520 00:37:17.440 --> 00:37:21.760 you need to come to this event, understand everything that's available to you, 521 00:37:22.199 --> 00:37:24.800 and then we'll You'll also get a free complimentary financial plan that comes along 522 00:37:24.840 --> 00:37:30.039 with attending the event, So it's definitely something you don't want to miss out 523 00:37:30.039 --> 00:37:31.159 on. You can give us a call five two zero five four to four 524 00:37:31.239 --> 00:37:35.159 four nine zero nine to sign up, or you go to our website and 525 00:37:35.440 --> 00:37:38.000 follow the link to our event bright page and sign up there as well. 526 00:37:38.119 --> 00:37:42.599 You could also get a paid day off if your department allows it, if 527 00:37:42.599 --> 00:37:46.039 you have that form SF one eight two. Okay, the big question is 528 00:37:47.039 --> 00:37:52.280 do I get lunch? You get lunch, Let's just get provided during that 529 00:37:52.360 --> 00:37:53.920 day. Yeah, so you're gonna give me free lunch, I get a 530 00:37:53.960 --> 00:37:58.119 paid day off, and I have to come listen to how I'm going to 531 00:37:58.440 --> 00:38:00.559 plan for my retirement and be rich and a free financial plan, a free 532 00:38:00.559 --> 00:38:04.519 financial Oh and we'll give it away a free financial plan too. Yep. 533 00:38:04.719 --> 00:38:07.599 And it's not just some it's not just some roost to get you on a 534 00:38:07.639 --> 00:38:09.440 list where we're gonna bug you for the rest of your life, right, 535 00:38:09.440 --> 00:38:15.559 and we've been We've been doing this a long time. It works, guys, 536 00:38:15.599 --> 00:38:19.320 It works. You know, everyone can go to Poleetpole can do things. 537 00:38:19.320 --> 00:38:22.039 I get it. Uh, we've become pretty pretty intricate in how this 538 00:38:22.119 --> 00:38:28.239 whole federal employee works and the retirement and what you need the insurance to. 539 00:38:28.800 --> 00:38:30.519 You know, they call it the feg lee. Well, yeah, if 540 00:38:30.519 --> 00:38:32.800 you're a FED employee, you know how intricate your retirement is, how unique 541 00:38:32.800 --> 00:38:37.400 it is compared to just regular civilian employees worth the four O one K and 542 00:38:37.440 --> 00:38:39.719 everything like that. You got that VHP, the fag lee, your TSP. 543 00:38:39.920 --> 00:38:44.239 It all wraps into one with your pension, and it all wraps into 544 00:38:44.280 --> 00:38:47.599 one with Social Security, and we tell you, we show you how that 545 00:38:47.719 --> 00:38:51.000 all can look through in the retirement and if there's anything we need to do 546 00:38:51.320 --> 00:38:53.239 prior to your retirement to get you ready. And they're all different too. 547 00:38:53.239 --> 00:38:55.639 If you're a border patrol, if you're air traffic controller, if you're a 548 00:38:55.679 --> 00:39:00.360 normal civilian FED you all have different variations to your calculations, to your pension, 549 00:39:00.400 --> 00:39:04.559 to your benefits. So we can help with every single one of those. 550 00:39:04.599 --> 00:39:07.039 And so that's that's the value that we bring for that. Also, 551 00:39:07.239 --> 00:39:10.639 next hour, we have a special guest on the show, a medicare specialist 552 00:39:10.719 --> 00:39:15.760 coming on. Obviously it's Medicare season, So we're very excited to bring some 553 00:39:15.079 --> 00:39:20.840 information and education to you there. And his name is Pat Quigley. Pat 554 00:39:21.400 --> 00:39:23.440 he just did my wife's Yes, he did. Okay, I can't believe 555 00:39:23.440 --> 00:39:28.119 I'm married to a medicaid woman and you you just filed for your Social Security 556 00:39:28.639 --> 00:39:31.079 and he files for your Social I hope everyone feels like I do. That 557 00:39:31.119 --> 00:39:35.079 we're way too young for this stuff. Absolutely, Hey, speaking of that, 558 00:39:35.119 --> 00:39:37.920 you want a fun fact, sure, what are the odds that live 559 00:39:37.960 --> 00:39:44.639 in too ninety? Which is it? Is it unisex or is it specific? 560 00:39:44.719 --> 00:39:47.119 Or let's do both sexes? Right? Okay, if you're a man, 561 00:39:49.400 --> 00:39:52.400 I'm going to say, I'm going to say twenty four percent. You're 562 00:39:52.719 --> 00:39:58.000 too optimistic. Maybe by the time you guys get there, that's probably right. 563 00:39:58.079 --> 00:40:05.679 Right now, sixteen percent of men make it. No, i'd say, 564 00:40:07.159 --> 00:40:09.639 what are you thinking? I just don't think it's fair. No, 565 00:40:09.880 --> 00:40:15.079 women, this is amazing women. Thirty four percent, So a third of 566 00:40:15.119 --> 00:40:16.599 all women. Good job to add a third of all women make it to 567 00:40:16.679 --> 00:40:22.079 age ninety. Again, everybody double everyone that comes up with that statistic. 568 00:40:22.119 --> 00:40:27.840 I want them to break it down again between the fluent. Yeah, socio 569 00:40:27.880 --> 00:40:31.760 economics because right, because I want to know because if that's the case, 570 00:40:31.840 --> 00:40:36.840 Okay, just say somebody that socio economically is more well off than somebody else 571 00:40:36.840 --> 00:40:42.840 and they're living and average is seven years more. Well, I'm okay figuring 572 00:40:42.880 --> 00:40:45.559 out whatever that is the food, the stuff, and that's what we saw 573 00:40:45.719 --> 00:40:50.239 giving everybody. You know, you gotta sell, you know, especially if 574 00:40:50.280 --> 00:40:53.760 it's food and the things that they gotta do. Because that that's where I 575 00:40:53.840 --> 00:40:59.639 don't have a problem balancing out the socio economic part. What you find is 576 00:40:59.679 --> 00:41:02.800 it takes money to eat, right, I mean, poor people can't have 577 00:41:02.880 --> 00:41:06.000 a different time to meeting. Right, Well, you have a lot of 578 00:41:06.000 --> 00:41:07.719 money for a long time, then you're probably getting better healthcare for a long 579 00:41:07.760 --> 00:41:09.760 time, and if anything pops up, you get the best health care to 580 00:41:09.760 --> 00:41:14.159 help yourself rather than just putting it off because it's expensive. But don't you 581 00:41:14.159 --> 00:41:17.360 ever wonder to yourself, why did these Hollywood stars live to be so old? 582 00:41:17.760 --> 00:41:21.639 They almost all lived in their nineties. Right, they have money, 583 00:41:21.679 --> 00:41:25.000 they got great healthcare. Theis they have their own shaft Jeanery right, absolutely, 584 00:41:25.039 --> 00:41:29.480 right, So socioeconomic makes a big difference, You're right, Well, 585 00:41:29.559 --> 00:41:31.199 they also have to have an appearance to be on the big screen and stuff 586 00:41:31.239 --> 00:41:35.679 like that too. Yeah, the directors and all they they might not be 587 00:41:35.719 --> 00:41:37.679 there. See, if you break it down, you get a better thing. 588 00:41:37.880 --> 00:41:39.239 You put it all in one. I still not think it's fair that 589 00:41:39.239 --> 00:41:42.960 it's almost double that women live longer than the men. How about more than 590 00:41:43.000 --> 00:41:47.679 double? Sixteen and thirty four. That's not right, that's not it's just 591 00:41:47.719 --> 00:41:51.239 not right. Hey, you know, we remember we were talking about Mattel 592 00:41:51.280 --> 00:41:53.000 when the whole Barbie thing came out, and we'll tell you come back. 593 00:41:53.039 --> 00:41:55.880 I thought everybody was equal today. Why did they get to live more than 594 00:41:55.880 --> 00:42:00.480 two times longer than I want to change that. I want a congressional investigation, 595 00:42:00.599 --> 00:42:05.599 right, yeah, congressional investigations. I just happened to notice Mattel this 596 00:42:05.639 --> 00:42:08.039 week. I hadn't really paid much attention to it when the whole Barbie craze 597 00:42:08.039 --> 00:42:10.519 came out and the stock spiked, and I actually had a client call and 598 00:42:10.519 --> 00:42:13.320 say, hey, maybe we gotta buy this, you know, I said, 599 00:42:13.360 --> 00:42:15.840 no, this is a this is a poorly run company that's that's in 600 00:42:15.880 --> 00:42:21.760 the final the late years of their life. Is this is an opportunity to 601 00:42:22.000 --> 00:42:25.199 bail And I noticed that they came up with an erning's report that was disappointing. 602 00:42:27.400 --> 00:42:30.719 Soccer is up still up twelve percent this year, down fourteen percent at 603 00:42:30.760 --> 00:42:36.840 the open on Thursday after reporting strong Barbie earnings but reduced guidance for Q four 604 00:42:37.320 --> 00:42:42.239 as the Barbie fad fades. We had warned about this stock. It's all 605 00:42:42.239 --> 00:42:45.719 about Telerswift. Now tel Swift. How about Kelsey? He's kind of replace 606 00:42:45.800 --> 00:42:50.480 the Gronk as the spokesman for the world. He's on every commercial on TV. 607 00:42:50.679 --> 00:42:53.440 Kelsey, I don't know. Gronk still everywhere, so see what Gronk 608 00:42:53.480 --> 00:42:59.280 did then, But he's not dumb. He invites Kelsey and tell a Swift 609 00:42:59.320 --> 00:43:04.440 to his Halloween audio Kelsey. Kelsey's the booster boy boy. They talk about 610 00:43:04.480 --> 00:43:07.400 changing somebody's life. You see pier commercials. No, Oh my goodness, 611 00:43:07.639 --> 00:43:15.599 I get my flu shot and my coach listening to vaccinine shot everything I should 612 00:43:15.639 --> 00:43:19.400 say. They want to make you feel guilty if you don't get a vax 613 00:43:19.440 --> 00:43:23.679 shot when I don't even know where they get the idea from the water off 614 00:43:23.719 --> 00:43:28.000 of a duck, apparently because they're not. I was in my pharmacy. 615 00:43:28.480 --> 00:43:35.239 Now I've I heard years ago that the flu shot reduces sudden cardiac death by 616 00:43:35.280 --> 00:43:39.280 fifty It was a male clinic, right, right up, Okay, they're 617 00:43:39.320 --> 00:43:42.840 a credible source. I'll get a flu shot. So I get a flu 618 00:43:42.880 --> 00:43:45.960 shot every year strictly for that purpose. It doesn't stop me from getting the 619 00:43:45.000 --> 00:43:47.679 flu. I've had the flu several times, but it does stop me from 620 00:43:47.719 --> 00:43:52.039 having sudden cardiac death. Obviously could here I am still yeah, you never 621 00:43:52.079 --> 00:43:54.440 know that, I said, I said to a gall at the pharmacy use 622 00:43:54.480 --> 00:43:58.000 a friend of mine. To day opposite, I was talking to Jennifer to 623 00:43:58.000 --> 00:44:00.320 the farmer, said hey, jen, how's the supply. I have a 624 00:44:00.400 --> 00:44:04.519 COVID vaccine? She goes, we got plenty at the pharmacy. So much 625 00:44:04.519 --> 00:44:07.320 you became friends with them? Oh yeah, no, I'm friends with the 626 00:44:07.480 --> 00:44:10.199 actually because they knew who he was in the radio. I know you know 627 00:44:10.280 --> 00:44:16.679 that that was. But I was okay, I know you okay heard that. 628 00:44:16.800 --> 00:44:21.960 I'm one of these guys that becomes friends with pretty much everywhere I go 629 00:44:22.039 --> 00:44:24.639 in terms of businesses. Right, I get to know the people. I 630 00:44:24.639 --> 00:44:28.440 get to know their names. Uh. I walk into the restaurant, they're 631 00:44:28.800 --> 00:44:30.639 high by name, you know, they called me by name. That's just 632 00:44:30.639 --> 00:44:36.199 how I am. I just you know, there every time I have a 633 00:44:36.239 --> 00:44:40.039 little predictable, a little predictable every Tuesday at six o'clock, I would know 634 00:44:40.039 --> 00:44:45.159 who you are. And okay, So so so last week, we had 635 00:44:45.159 --> 00:44:46.920 a water main break in our area and I'm president of the homewner, so 636 00:44:47.039 --> 00:44:51.039 she was. I go over and I talk to the guys at the with 637 00:44:51.119 --> 00:44:52.320 a water main break, right, and we're talking about it, and I'm 638 00:44:52.599 --> 00:44:57.159 just shouldn't have about a number of things. And I get ready to leave 639 00:44:57.199 --> 00:44:59.239 and he gives me a hug. So you know, that's how it goes. 640 00:44:59.280 --> 00:45:00.760 So there you go. And then he asked you out to dinner. 641 00:45:02.000 --> 00:45:07.000 Now, now let's not go there. Don't be that guy. Don't be 642 00:45:07.079 --> 00:45:10.440 that guy. So we had a couple of things, and bitcoin just keeps 643 00:45:10.440 --> 00:45:15.280 flying. Todd love to see it up twenty five percent in the last two 644 00:45:15.280 --> 00:45:17.519 weeks. Yeah, twenty five percent. Last week. Oil was actually down 645 00:45:17.599 --> 00:45:22.159 three dollars last week eighty eight bucks. So gold is gold right stabilized. 646 00:45:22.199 --> 00:45:24.880 It was of six bucks nineteen eighty eight, had a good Friday. But 647 00:45:24.920 --> 00:45:28.880 that's my point, right, if you look at golden bitcoin, not saying 648 00:45:28.880 --> 00:45:30.679 that the same thing, because they're far from it. It's just interesting that 649 00:45:30.679 --> 00:45:35.360 they kind of had the same path over these last three weeks they have. 650 00:45:35.400 --> 00:45:38.920 It's been interesting, and the interst rates were actually fractionally lower on the week. 651 00:45:40.039 --> 00:45:44.360 The spread between the ten year and the two years nineteen basis points. 652 00:45:44.360 --> 00:45:47.159 Now last week it was seventeen bases. We're getting to working towards that flat 653 00:45:47.199 --> 00:45:52.840 line, which we talked last week is good for the economy, right, 654 00:45:52.960 --> 00:45:54.960 regardless of all this, yeah, regardless of how to have a plan, 655 00:45:57.079 --> 00:46:00.400 that's all I know. I mean, if you're not planning for what you're 656 00:46:00.400 --> 00:46:04.079 going to do ahead of time, you're never going to be able to do 657 00:46:04.119 --> 00:46:06.599 it. The plan is so helpful. I say it in on two of 658 00:46:06.639 --> 00:46:08.920 them. Sometimes you're talking about the financial plan. Now is your investment plan? 659 00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:12.920 We as money managed have to have an idea of what we're going to 660 00:46:12.960 --> 00:46:16.840 do. We've done it for our portfolios. Okay. We don't sit there 661 00:46:16.840 --> 00:46:20.320 and just say, ah, we'll just see what happens. Oh, we'll 662 00:46:20.360 --> 00:46:23.639 just wait an this to happen. We react to what happens and try to 663 00:46:23.679 --> 00:46:28.519 put ourselves in a better position. So many people one of the biggest say, 664 00:46:28.559 --> 00:46:30.960 one of the things things people keep saying you know what, I like 665 00:46:30.760 --> 00:46:32.880 You guys don't sit there and just say, oh, don't worry about it. 666 00:46:32.880 --> 00:46:38.000 They'll come back, or hey, you know what, your portfolio is 667 00:46:38.039 --> 00:46:40.480 good, the allocation's good. It meets your thing. We don't need to 668 00:46:40.519 --> 00:46:45.280 make any changes. You guys actually have a risk reward type of strategy that 669 00:46:45.840 --> 00:46:51.519 you never go to cash totally. But you obviously increase your risk when it's 670 00:46:51.559 --> 00:46:57.039 lower and lowerer risk when it's higher. And you're not afraid to go ahead 671 00:46:57.360 --> 00:47:00.719 and state what you think. And sometimes you're right. Most of the time 672 00:47:00.719 --> 00:47:05.079 you're writ Sometimes you're wrong. Yeah, went out not right on hunt. 673 00:47:05.079 --> 00:47:07.400 If you want a business where you're right one hundred percent, this is not 674 00:47:07.440 --> 00:47:12.960 their job for you. Oh there's a lot of people that want that everyone, 675 00:47:13.840 --> 00:47:15.760 And you know what, the only place you're going to get that is 676 00:47:15.800 --> 00:47:22.719 an annuity. We can get an upside and no downside, but you limit 677 00:47:22.760 --> 00:47:24.880 it to the upside, right, Right, If you're willing to take away 678 00:47:24.880 --> 00:47:28.079 the downside, you're going to take away some of the upside, right, 679 00:47:28.119 --> 00:47:30.719 So I'm cold to go up fifteen percent. You're like, why didn't I 680 00:47:30.800 --> 00:47:34.800 make that money? Very simple? You're in an annuity. They can't lose 681 00:47:34.800 --> 00:47:37.360 on the downside and you can only win on the upside. And Todd Lady 682 00:47:37.480 --> 00:47:42.599 is going to talk about one that is actually pretty attractive for those that have 683 00:47:42.639 --> 00:47:45.760 that mindset. We'll be right back. This is the Moneymatter Show. We'll 684 00:47:45.760 --> 00:47:55.719 be back for the second hour. Thank you, it's welcome back. You're 685 00:47:55.719 --> 00:47:59.360 listening to this Money Matter Show. We are at the top of the second 686 00:47:59.360 --> 00:48:01.320 hour. I'm doing Greenberg. I'm here with Dave Sherwood, Dian Greenberg, 687 00:48:01.360 --> 00:48:06.840 Todd Glick, and Sebastian Borsini. Not a great weekend the markets last week. 688 00:48:06.880 --> 00:48:08.800 We've been seeing that the last few months now. For the week, 689 00:48:08.960 --> 00:48:13.000 the Dow was down two percent, the Nazak was down two and a half 690 00:48:13.000 --> 00:48:15.840 percent, the sm P five hundred was down too and a half percent. 691 00:48:15.079 --> 00:48:19.320 Russell two thousand, which is a small cap I was also down two and 692 00:48:19.320 --> 00:48:22.960 a half percent, and the equal weighted S and P five hundred was also 693 00:48:22.000 --> 00:48:27.079 down to two point five percent. I'm feeling our theme here. I unfortunately 694 00:48:27.800 --> 00:48:30.599 what happened. Yeah, you don't like that, No, I don't want 695 00:48:30.639 --> 00:48:32.239 that. We've been seeing it a seasonality, a lot of it. We're 696 00:48:32.320 --> 00:48:37.440 kind of we're coming into historically a better time of the year coming into November 697 00:48:37.480 --> 00:48:40.960 December, but we'll see if that holds up. So far September and October 698 00:48:42.039 --> 00:48:45.599 we're holding up to historics. Now again November one through January thirty first sixty 699 00:48:45.599 --> 00:48:49.519 percent of all games for the year. Well, we hope that's the case 700 00:48:49.519 --> 00:48:52.440 again. Absolutely, we're all in on the terrible last three months. Well, 701 00:48:52.440 --> 00:48:53.840 you know, I love my economic report, so let me run down 702 00:48:53.840 --> 00:48:58.000 what happened throughout the week. We had the pending home sales that came out, 703 00:48:58.039 --> 00:49:01.079 and they came in a lot hotterer than nexts which was very interesting because 704 00:49:01.079 --> 00:49:06.039 the expectations was a drop month over month for September came in as a gain. 705 00:49:06.320 --> 00:49:08.920 The previous month was a negative seven percent dropped, so showing some strength 706 00:49:08.920 --> 00:49:13.599 there in the home on the home sales side, which isn't good for inflation, 707 00:49:14.119 --> 00:49:17.639 right. Fed chair talked on Wednesday, Pal talked on Wednesday before the 708 00:49:17.679 --> 00:49:22.519 preliminary GDP print came out on Thursday. That came in very hot. That 709 00:49:22.559 --> 00:49:25.119 came in about four point nine. The expectations was four point two, so 710 00:49:25.719 --> 00:49:29.760 from an inflationary standpoint, it did not look good. But then on Friday 711 00:49:30.079 --> 00:49:34.920 we got the PCE inflation report, and that was relatively nothing was really there. 712 00:49:34.960 --> 00:49:37.719 I mean, it was just where expectations were. So we didn't really 713 00:49:37.719 --> 00:49:42.320 see any inflation in the PCE show up. But we are seeing inflation continue 714 00:49:42.360 --> 00:49:45.559 to stay here, stay sticky in the overall economy, in the housing sector. 715 00:49:45.880 --> 00:49:49.519 So definitely not what the Fed wanted to see. But interest rates didn't 716 00:49:49.559 --> 00:49:52.719 respond, we saw they decrease. So it was an interesting week and that 717 00:49:52.840 --> 00:49:57.599 Monday the market was flat. Tuesday was actually a real nice rally on Tuesday, 718 00:49:57.639 --> 00:50:00.079 and interest rates came down. Oil price has declined a little bit, 719 00:50:00.119 --> 00:50:06.119 and okay, maybe this thing's over. Wednesday morning, Google reports that earning 720 00:50:06.840 --> 00:50:09.599 disappointment, they dropped ten percent, took the entire market with it. Uh 721 00:50:10.679 --> 00:50:19.119 Thursday, Friday, just Thursday GDP. But Thursday we had oil and rates 722 00:50:19.159 --> 00:50:22.000 drop and the market drop, yes, which is fair, and I talked 723 00:50:22.000 --> 00:50:25.039 about that because the market had been moving because of rising interst rates. Well 724 00:50:25.079 --> 00:50:30.480 here oil industries drop, oil drops both of them pretty significantly, and the 725 00:50:30.480 --> 00:50:34.000 market dropped, and we, oh, this isn't good. And then Friday, 726 00:50:34.039 --> 00:50:37.079 of course, the continuation. Friday really did feel like it wanted to 727 00:50:37.119 --> 00:50:40.599 come back and rally, but ahead of the weekend with the war going on 728 00:50:42.079 --> 00:50:45.599 the US is bombing Syria. You know, yeah, you can't really can't 729 00:50:45.599 --> 00:50:49.639 really bring yourself the courage to do that, especially when you can sit in 730 00:50:49.639 --> 00:50:52.000 five percent. Well, we have some questions, you know that people can 731 00:50:52.159 --> 00:50:57.639 can send to contact correct at Greenberg. The Greenberg is all ease, by 732 00:50:57.679 --> 00:51:02.199 the way, Yes, contact at Greenberg Financial dot com. And you've got 733 00:51:02.199 --> 00:51:06.199 some Sebastian Yes, we got two of that in this week. We call 734 00:51:06.320 --> 00:51:08.199 Sea Bass and one of our clients thought that was such a cute nickname. 735 00:51:08.320 --> 00:51:12.880 Been hearing it since Little League Baseball. Come on to see Bass. Let's 736 00:51:12.880 --> 00:51:15.239 go. Okay, you got a question over there. Yep, this one 737 00:51:15.239 --> 00:51:17.559 comes in from Bryan. Uh. Probably gonna be geared towards Todd here, 738 00:51:17.599 --> 00:51:22.480 but question states, there's been a lot of chatter about cryptocurrency lately. What's 739 00:51:22.480 --> 00:51:28.599 your perspective on including digital assets in a diversified investment portfolio? Yeah, so 740 00:51:29.199 --> 00:51:32.239 I've thought about this a lot, and I don't think for anyone you should 741 00:51:32.280 --> 00:51:37.039 have more than three percent of your portfolio in crypto or digital assets. And 742 00:51:37.440 --> 00:51:40.679 specifically, I wouldn't put any money in anything other than bitcoin because it's the 743 00:51:40.679 --> 00:51:45.199 most traded asset. You're a big crypto advocate, so three percent, yes, 744 00:51:45.440 --> 00:51:47.679 but this is for your portfolio if you wanted to add it to a 745 00:51:47.719 --> 00:51:52.000 diversified portfolio. It's like a stock, in my opinion, of a risky 746 00:51:52.039 --> 00:51:55.199 stock, like a Navidia or an app or a Google. You shouldn't have 747 00:51:55.239 --> 00:51:59.920 more than three percent because if something bad happens, you never know, it 748 00:52:00.039 --> 00:52:01.199 could really hurt your portfolio. If you keep it to three percent, it 749 00:52:01.239 --> 00:52:05.159 could drop fifty percent. You only lose one point five percent of your account. 750 00:52:05.159 --> 00:52:07.440 An asset they can go up and value twenty five percent in two weeks, 751 00:52:07.480 --> 00:52:10.760 can also go down and value twenty five percent. And let's let's let's 752 00:52:10.760 --> 00:52:14.239 think you know a lot of people that are like three percent. Not a 753 00:52:14.239 --> 00:52:16.239 lot, Why would I even bother? Well, if if bitcoin did what 754 00:52:16.280 --> 00:52:20.519 it's done in previous runs, that three percent will easily end up being nine 755 00:52:20.559 --> 00:52:22.719 percent of your portfolio. Yes, and that's when you need to sell and 756 00:52:22.760 --> 00:52:25.920 bring it back down to three. So this is a a very new space 757 00:52:25.960 --> 00:52:30.480 and people need to be very cautious. I don't think anyone above the age 758 00:52:30.519 --> 00:52:34.639 of sixty should really be looking in this unless they're just doing it for fun. 759 00:52:35.440 --> 00:52:37.760 But the younger people, they have time, they have risk that they 760 00:52:37.800 --> 00:52:42.639 can afford. But again, shouldn't be anything more than three percent right now. 761 00:52:43.119 --> 00:52:45.119 Maybe in future years, when it's more of autritional, it's more regulated, 762 00:52:45.360 --> 00:52:47.880 you can make a case for a larger percentage, but right now, 763 00:52:47.880 --> 00:52:52.519 again I look at it as a very risky stock. I agree. Another 764 00:52:52.559 --> 00:52:55.039 one there. This one comes in from Daniel. Given the current interest rate 765 00:52:55.119 --> 00:52:59.960 environment? How should I approach fixed income investments? Are there any specific bond 766 00:53:00.000 --> 00:53:02.719 strategies that make sense right now? I think the one thing that we have 767 00:53:02.800 --> 00:53:07.159 to be cautious of in this keep in mind interest rates are at a sixteen 768 00:53:07.239 --> 00:53:12.320 year high. Now. When interest is get to a sixteen percent high, 769 00:53:12.599 --> 00:53:15.280 the common thinking is, well, they're going to go to a twenty year 770 00:53:15.360 --> 00:53:19.800 high and a twenty five year high. So the best return right now is 771 00:53:19.800 --> 00:53:22.119 like on a one year I think one year that sweet spot to yeah, 772 00:53:22.159 --> 00:53:27.599 twelve to fourteen months somewhere in there is the highest rate. So let's put 773 00:53:27.639 --> 00:53:30.960 it all there and then in twelve to fourteen months it comes due and then 774 00:53:30.000 --> 00:53:34.880 I'll roll it over. Here's the problem. At some point, the economy 775 00:53:34.920 --> 00:53:37.480 is going to slow, the FED is going to stop raising interest rates. 776 00:53:37.639 --> 00:53:42.960 Things are going to return to normal, and I don't expect interest rates to 777 00:53:43.039 --> 00:53:46.039 get back to where they were. They were at historic glows, but we're 778 00:53:46.039 --> 00:53:51.760 at a sixteen year high. That's a pretty good place to lock in rates 779 00:53:51.800 --> 00:53:54.599 for a longer term. So what we're doing for most of our clients are 780 00:53:54.960 --> 00:53:59.840 is something called a ladder where we'll do twenty percent. Let's say we have 781 00:54:00.360 --> 00:54:06.400 forty percent of the portfolio allocated to fixed income. We'll divide that in five 782 00:54:06.440 --> 00:54:09.000 different tranches, eight percent each, right, and we'll put eight percent in 783 00:54:09.039 --> 00:54:14.119 a one year treasury, eight percent in a two year treasury, eight percent 784 00:54:14.199 --> 00:54:17.800 in a three year corporate. Because as you get out to three years, 785 00:54:17.840 --> 00:54:22.760 the treasury yield drops below five, down around four point eight five, and 786 00:54:22.800 --> 00:54:27.800 then four point six and four point So we can keep those rates above five 787 00:54:28.239 --> 00:54:32.119 by going with corporate names like Walmart, Home Depot, Honeywell, Bristol Meyer. 788 00:54:32.199 --> 00:54:35.280 I mean, those are some of the names we've bought in the last 789 00:54:35.280 --> 00:54:37.639 week. So one, two, three, four and five year maturities. 790 00:54:38.360 --> 00:54:44.239 Ultimately, when the yield curve corrects, the longer term maturities will have a 791 00:54:44.320 --> 00:54:47.000 higher rate of interest. In the meantime, if rates begin to drop, 792 00:54:47.880 --> 00:54:51.599 it's the best of both worlds. If rates were to continue to go up, 793 00:54:51.880 --> 00:54:54.519 you have twenty percent of your portfolio coming to every year. If rates 794 00:54:54.559 --> 00:55:00.480 start to drop, you've got forty percent of your portfolio that's four years or 795 00:55:00.519 --> 00:55:04.440 more locked in. So that's kind of how we do the fixed income play 796 00:55:04.519 --> 00:55:07.280 right now. And I would add on top of that that and this isn't 797 00:55:07.320 --> 00:55:10.119 fixed income, so this is kind of shifting gears. But for people who 798 00:55:10.199 --> 00:55:14.719 are in a more risk averse type of scenario, there are a lot of 799 00:55:14.760 --> 00:55:17.599 interesting annuity products available in the marketplace right now. And for people who don't 800 00:55:17.679 --> 00:55:23.119 understand how annuities work, it's an annuity company and they hedge their risk as 801 00:55:23.119 --> 00:55:29.280 a company using bonds, and specifically a ten year bond. So the higher 802 00:55:29.320 --> 00:55:32.480 a ten year bond gets, the more annuity company can offer you. Right 803 00:55:34.000 --> 00:55:37.119 back back when instrate's really low, they can't offer you a lot of good 804 00:55:37.199 --> 00:55:40.480 interest, any good crediting rates, and so people really don't go into nudies. 805 00:55:40.519 --> 00:55:44.199 We're seeing all time sales and annuities these last two years, some of 806 00:55:44.199 --> 00:55:46.400 it because if here's some of it, because they're offering things that we haven't 807 00:55:46.400 --> 00:55:50.400 seen in the marketplace for twenty plus years. So I'll go into a couple 808 00:55:50.480 --> 00:55:53.039 here right now. We've talked about the MAGA multiple times on the show. 809 00:55:53.480 --> 00:55:59.440 That stands for multi year Guaranteed Annuity. It's essentially just a CD A contract 810 00:55:59.719 --> 00:56:02.920 with an annuity company. This is a five year product. They just increased 811 00:56:04.000 --> 00:56:07.280 rates at a theme and that's the company we love because a rated great customer 812 00:56:07.320 --> 00:56:12.880 service. Des Moines, Iowa, middle of the country. Right right now, 813 00:56:12.880 --> 00:56:15.760 they just increase rates. It's now at six point one for premiums above 814 00:56:15.760 --> 00:56:21.719 one hundred thousand. So imagine getting that guaranteed locked in for five years, 815 00:56:22.280 --> 00:56:24.280 and it can be compounded if you leave the interest in there. So a 816 00:56:24.400 --> 00:56:30.280 very fascinating project there. Also we have Lincoln has a very interesting five year 817 00:56:30.360 --> 00:56:37.880 fixed indexed annuity where essentially, in each year you have your money into the 818 00:56:37.960 --> 00:56:39.760 S and P five hundred, you're guaranteed not to lose in any given year. 819 00:56:42.039 --> 00:56:44.800 Five years, five year withdrawal penalties. Okay, yes, you're in 820 00:56:44.840 --> 00:56:46.639 it for five years. You're in it for five years, but in each 821 00:56:46.719 --> 00:56:51.000 year it's annual point to point, which means it's you're just looking at a 822 00:56:51.000 --> 00:56:52.159 one year return of the S and P. I mean, if you start 823 00:56:52.199 --> 00:56:57.320 in March, then in March of the next year's year one year correct, 824 00:56:57.320 --> 00:57:00.960 and so let's use that March example. The smps that are even four thousand 825 00:57:00.039 --> 00:57:04.159 dollars. If we go to the marks of the next year and the SMP's 826 00:57:04.199 --> 00:57:07.480 at four thousand and two dollars, that's only what a point zero one percent 827 00:57:07.519 --> 00:57:12.679 return. But because of this product has something called the S and P five 828 00:57:12.760 --> 00:57:15.960 hundred trigger. Instead of a point one percent return, you'll get a ten 829 00:57:15.000 --> 00:57:19.239 percent return. Essentially, as long as the S and P five hundred finishes 830 00:57:19.320 --> 00:57:23.199 positive from the year before you started that contract anniversary, you will get the 831 00:57:23.239 --> 00:57:27.719 full ten percent. If the S and P finished negative twenty percent, you 832 00:57:27.719 --> 00:57:30.119 don't get negative twenty on your portfolio. You get a zero percent return for 833 00:57:30.159 --> 00:57:34.760 the year. If the S and P gained a positive twenty percent on that 834 00:57:34.880 --> 00:57:37.880 year, you don't get twenty percent. You only get to ten percent. 835 00:57:37.119 --> 00:57:40.159 So you're limited to the upside as Dean said earlier, to that ten percent, 836 00:57:40.480 --> 00:57:44.079 but you could you also have a little bit of a juicer there where 837 00:57:44.079 --> 00:57:45.519 if the S and P only earned two, three or four percent in a 838 00:57:45.559 --> 00:57:49.800 given year, you actually get a full ten percent return. And there've been 839 00:57:49.800 --> 00:57:52.480 periods where the S and P five hundred has been positive for twenty years in 840 00:57:52.480 --> 00:57:57.440 a row, right, so you know that would be ideal. There have 841 00:57:57.519 --> 00:58:02.079 been only twice in the last seventy years has it been down two years in 842 00:58:02.079 --> 00:58:06.800 a row. So two years in a row you make nothing and then three 843 00:58:06.880 --> 00:58:10.639 years you make ten percent. So what we've been seeing happening is this can 844 00:58:10.679 --> 00:58:15.119 be a kind of a bond alternative. Right. Obviously, bonds we are 845 00:58:15.199 --> 00:58:17.039 using as a stability of our principle. We want to know that that's not 846 00:58:17.079 --> 00:58:21.639 going to be degrading in principle and giving us some interest. Essentially, it's 847 00:58:21.599 --> 00:58:23.599 the same thing that the fixed index annuity would do for you. You're guaranteed 848 00:58:23.639 --> 00:58:27.199 not to lose in any given year. You're not going to lose principle, 849 00:58:27.280 --> 00:58:30.360 but you have the possibility for some nice interest on top of that. So 850 00:58:30.559 --> 00:58:34.519 there are a lot of cool products out there in the marketplace. Come see 851 00:58:34.599 --> 00:58:37.679 us, give us a call. We don't offer any products until we do 852 00:58:37.679 --> 00:58:40.440 a financial plan because for us, we don't believe in products until we know 853 00:58:40.519 --> 00:58:44.920 exactly what you need, how you need it, and whether that product will 854 00:58:44.960 --> 00:58:47.000 satisfy that it may not fit at all, exactly, it may not fit 855 00:58:47.039 --> 00:58:50.719 at all. Just something you're thrown out there kind of a teaser, right, 856 00:58:50.840 --> 00:58:52.599 and I'm like, yeah, you know, we got this. How 857 00:58:52.639 --> 00:58:55.320 about that? I mean, no one shops annuity products on their spare time, 858 00:58:55.440 --> 00:58:58.320 right, so unless you listening to the show, you're not going to 859 00:58:58.400 --> 00:59:00.800 know the new updates. So we try to give you some updates here and 860 00:59:00.840 --> 00:59:02.960 there. Good point. How about a little ev garage. I got a 861 00:59:02.960 --> 00:59:07.719 little short one this week. Beat. Many have stayed away from evs due 862 00:59:07.760 --> 00:59:12.320 to the high prices, but the market for used evs has tripled in the 863 00:59:12.400 --> 00:59:15.360 last two years as the number of US dvs sold. Get this, the 864 00:59:15.440 --> 00:59:22.400 number of used evs sold this year are greater than the sales of all new 865 00:59:22.519 --> 00:59:27.239 electric vehicles. If you take out Tesla. Wow, so everybody other than 866 00:59:27.320 --> 00:59:30.920 Tesla, so take Tesla away. Tesla new car sales in twenty twenty three 867 00:59:30.119 --> 00:59:36.719 are fifty percent above twenty two, and Tesla still is sixty percent of all 868 00:59:37.320 --> 00:59:40.360 evs. So most electric vehicles sold in the secondary market are going to be 869 00:59:40.440 --> 00:59:45.000 Tesla's and the price is at a two and a half year low due to 870 00:59:45.039 --> 00:59:49.360 the increasing number of vehicles they've tripled. Like I said, the inventory is 871 00:59:49.400 --> 00:59:52.960 tripled. So if you're thinking about electric vehicle, don't want to lay out 872 00:59:52.000 --> 00:59:57.679 fifty sixty grand. There's some used EV's that are out there, and there's 873 00:59:57.719 --> 01:00:00.400 more and more of them all the time. Of new evs. For the 874 01:00:00.400 --> 01:00:05.880 third quarter rolls fifty percent year over year, and now count toad for eight 875 01:00:06.000 --> 01:00:09.679 percent of all sales, all car sales. Wow, so that's that's a 876 01:00:09.760 --> 01:00:13.199 big working its way up there. Huh. Yeah, that's a big change. 877 01:00:13.199 --> 01:00:15.559 I think we were starting off when you were kind at it was around 878 01:00:15.559 --> 01:00:20.199 two four years ago, around two percent of all sales. Now a date 879 01:00:20.400 --> 01:00:22.880 we had, we had a lot of Ernie's reports to this week's week try 880 01:00:22.880 --> 01:00:28.119 to run through them. Sure go. So obviously we had the I mean, 881 01:00:28.159 --> 01:00:30.360 we talked a little bit about Google, So let's let's round that one 882 01:00:30.400 --> 01:00:36.239 out. Google's cloud servicing had some issues with not being as profitable as investors 883 01:00:36.239 --> 01:00:39.800 were liking, but largely it was because of the spending that was being caused 884 01:00:39.800 --> 01:00:44.360 from the Baird, which is their chat GPT that they're trying to roll out. 885 01:00:44.960 --> 01:00:47.440 Investors are kind of not impressed that it's still really just text based. 886 01:00:47.480 --> 01:00:52.920 I guess and they wanted to see some other improvements in that space, and 887 01:00:52.960 --> 01:00:55.119 they didn't see it just not generating the revenue at this point. Yeah, 888 01:00:55.280 --> 01:00:59.639 that they hoped for. AT and T and Verison both came out with good 889 01:00:59.639 --> 01:01:04.960 earninge which is has been a long time. Those two stocks have fantastic dividends, 890 01:01:05.480 --> 01:01:08.920 but they've just shown no growth though they've been losing ground despite the dividend. 891 01:01:09.000 --> 01:01:13.480 Did they say anything about the iPhone fifteen sales helping them in that aspect? 892 01:01:13.599 --> 01:01:17.599 Absolutely? Absolutely, an iPhone fifteen sales probably the strongest iPhone in a 893 01:01:17.639 --> 01:01:22.599 long long time, really, because who was saying that that wasn't the case. 894 01:01:22.639 --> 01:01:24.480 Someone was out there touting that there was going to be some slow down. 895 01:01:24.559 --> 01:01:28.159 Was it Cramer? I don't recall who it was, but I know 896 01:01:28.239 --> 01:01:30.679 that the way times are longer than they've been for any iPhone in a long 897 01:01:30.719 --> 01:01:34.719 time, and it's the biggest update in a while. So people want this 898 01:01:34.800 --> 01:01:37.159 phone now. Yeah, and if they're on the iPhone train. I also 899 01:01:37.159 --> 01:01:39.760 think people are overblowing the whole China thing with the government employees not able to 900 01:01:39.840 --> 01:01:43.280 use Apple. I think there's a lot of people in China that aren't government 901 01:01:43.320 --> 01:01:45.760 employees. I would think. So, I have a couple of things, 902 01:01:45.800 --> 01:01:47.159 probably more that hard government. Yeah, I have a couple of things. 903 01:01:47.159 --> 01:01:52.559 On Amazon's earnings, Yeah, that was interesting. Amazon came out and after 904 01:01:52.679 --> 01:01:54.519 market it popped five points, and then it dropped five points, and then 905 01:01:54.519 --> 01:01:58.400 it came back. It was up ten points or five points. It's crazy. 906 01:01:58.480 --> 01:02:00.599 Yeah, they beat revenue estimates by one point one percent and be guidance 907 01:02:00.639 --> 01:02:06.840 by one point nine percent, roughly met their AWS revenue estimates. Some highlights 908 01:02:06.840 --> 01:02:09.239 from this earnings call. Amazon is conducting a series of operational tweaks to make 909 01:02:09.239 --> 01:02:15.159 its fulfillment business more efficient. Key piece of this is converting its national fulfillment 910 01:02:15.199 --> 01:02:21.079 network into eight regional centers. This is being done at cut Milso Fulfilled part 911 01:02:21.079 --> 01:02:24.199 of the team. The benefits of this change are exceeding optimistic expectations, so 912 01:02:24.519 --> 01:02:28.519 to me, shorter delivery times and lower cost of serve. I think it's 913 01:02:28.519 --> 01:02:31.639 a great thing to you know, see the cost cutting coexist with better customer 914 01:02:31.679 --> 01:02:36.480 service. It was really a strong quarter. Also revenue. I mean, 915 01:02:36.519 --> 01:02:38.679 did I see that right? Revenue tripled year over Yes, yes, I 916 01:02:38.719 --> 01:02:43.199 mean that's that's that's incredible. I can't I can't tell you the number of 917 01:02:43.239 --> 01:02:45.480 stocks, and I think of a couple of month top of my head, 918 01:02:45.719 --> 01:02:52.639 Whirlpool is one that hit the lowest level since the pandemic. Going back to 919 01:02:52.679 --> 01:02:57.079 the pandemic, you know Advisor Moderna for obvious reasons. Whirlpool because back in 920 01:02:57.119 --> 01:03:00.719 twenty one, we all wanted to fix our houses up. Since then, 921 01:03:00.760 --> 01:03:04.760 it has fallen by fifty percent and it's back to where it was during the 922 01:03:04.800 --> 01:03:09.559 pandemic. It's amazing how much that had. The Metal Report to Metal Report, 923 01:03:09.679 --> 01:03:15.960 yeah, I met a strong, strong report. It sold off initially 924 01:03:15.360 --> 01:03:20.679 and then it came back. The report was on Thursday and it sold off, 925 01:03:20.719 --> 01:03:23.559 and then of Friday, a strong strong day on Friday. Yea to 926 01:03:23.599 --> 01:03:27.280 where he's still spending a ton of money in reality laves, which is it 927 01:03:27.400 --> 01:03:30.719 metaverse yep, But that's just usual now, it's not any surprise. So 928 01:03:30.719 --> 01:03:34.480 I know Netflix reported last week, but it seemed like they were able to 929 01:03:34.519 --> 01:03:37.840 hold that big gain that they that they had last week. Ford a lot 930 01:03:37.920 --> 01:03:40.519 of struggles with Ford right now, with the UAW strike and everything. They 931 01:03:40.519 --> 01:03:45.639 missed third quarter earnings expectations and that, and they pulled their whole guidance for 932 01:03:45.679 --> 01:03:49.599 the year and they said it was in due part to this UAW strike. 933 01:03:49.679 --> 01:03:54.239 Even though they reached a tentative agreement on Wednesday, Yeah, earnings came out, 934 01:03:54.440 --> 01:03:58.199 but they said I still hard him because it's been about six weeks they 935 01:03:58.199 --> 01:04:00.360 were reached an agreement and they're saying that all this. Ford is the only 936 01:04:00.400 --> 01:04:04.320 one that's reached it so far as of this recording. But they're talking to 937 01:04:04.400 --> 01:04:09.800 GM and Stilantis. They're nearing a deal, but they're still not there yet. 938 01:04:09.840 --> 01:04:12.639 Ford reached there as they said, it's going to be twenty five percent 939 01:04:12.760 --> 01:04:15.840 increase in pay. In a pay increase that's over a five year period or 940 01:04:15.880 --> 01:04:19.400 a five year period. It's going to cost them. Its whole new agreement 941 01:04:19.400 --> 01:04:24.320 could cost Ford about six point two billion dollars something. And then they also 942 01:04:24.360 --> 01:04:29.239 have the right to strike if Ford closes the plans. They also have the 943 01:04:29.280 --> 01:04:31.639 reinstate of their cola, which is cost a living adjustment. They have the 944 01:04:31.679 --> 01:04:36.039 wages to go over twenty eight dollars per hour for the lower starting positions and 945 01:04:36.039 --> 01:04:39.679 get all the way at the forty dollars per hour, which instead of an 946 01:04:39.719 --> 01:04:42.519 eight year period, they're reducing in that down to a three year period. 947 01:04:43.480 --> 01:04:48.639 Say they gave away a lot, a lot billion dollars during the six week 948 01:04:48.639 --> 01:04:51.920 period of strikes, so they saying it's worth it. But now this is 949 01:04:51.960 --> 01:04:56.519 going to increase the cost per vehicle to about eight hundred and fifty to nine 950 01:04:56.559 --> 01:05:00.559 hundred dollars more. Stock dropped to a new Oh yeah, it dropped twelve 951 01:05:00.920 --> 01:05:04.920 Friday. They got a five percent dividend, which does appear to be secure. 952 01:05:05.639 --> 01:05:10.360 It's well covered by earnings about double. The earnings are about double the 953 01:05:10.400 --> 01:05:14.400 dividend, so the dividend does look safe. It's actually after Friday's dropped is 954 01:05:14.440 --> 01:05:16.039 about six percent. Yeah, It's going to be interesting to see what their 955 01:05:16.119 --> 01:05:21.719 electric sector does because I mean they're going it's nine hundred dollars more for labor 956 01:05:21.760 --> 01:05:25.760 costs for per vehicle, right, It's that going to hit the labor Is 957 01:05:25.760 --> 01:05:29.079 that going to hit the electric side too? And like so many companies are 958 01:05:29.119 --> 01:05:32.039 still struggling with the electric armies. It's new to them. And that's why 959 01:05:32.079 --> 01:05:35.639 I've said before on the show, Tesla's been doing it for thirteen years. 960 01:05:35.679 --> 01:05:40.639 Yeah, Ford went full in on theirs. They're still struggling. They did, 961 01:05:40.880 --> 01:05:43.639 and Toyota now is trying to go all in and they keep talking more 962 01:05:43.639 --> 01:05:46.000 and more about the solid state battery that's going to have a thousand miles and 963 01:05:46.400 --> 01:05:50.320 charging ten minutes. But that's out there a few years. When does Toyota 964 01:05:50.400 --> 01:05:53.840 have a report? I swear I've never seen an earnings report come out from 965 01:05:53.880 --> 01:05:57.280 that. Yeah, I don't know when their latest report is. Another interesting 966 01:05:57.320 --> 01:06:00.519 thing on Friday was Jamie Diamond and now he's going to sell a million shares 967 01:06:00.840 --> 01:06:04.199 of JPM stock starting next year. And that's the first time he's ever going 968 01:06:04.239 --> 01:06:09.039 to sell stock that isn't part of some expiring options. Wow, that during 969 01:06:09.039 --> 01:06:11.559 the serio, So now it's got in Yeah, during the CEO tenure which 970 01:06:11.559 --> 01:06:14.880 started in two thousand and five. And is Jamie diming You're thinking he's the 971 01:06:14.920 --> 01:06:17.559 best banker in the world. He's taking JP Morgan Chase to the top bank 972 01:06:17.559 --> 01:06:20.920 in the world. They're thinking investors got all nervous to drop four percent. 973 01:06:20.920 --> 01:06:24.639 That's stock drop four percent on Friday because all of a sudden, I know 974 01:06:24.679 --> 01:06:27.320 where he's selling a million shares next year. Are they thinking he's retiring. 975 01:06:27.360 --> 01:06:30.400 He's sixty seven years old, maybe he's near in retirement. And also it's 976 01:06:30.440 --> 01:06:32.800 one hundred and forty million dollars for the stocks. You know, one of 977 01:06:32.840 --> 01:06:36.079 the things that we talk about a lot in this country is why can't we 978 01:06:36.119 --> 01:06:40.960 all just get along? And I came across something. This has nothing to 979 01:06:41.000 --> 01:06:44.199 do with the stock market, but I thought it was brilliant. There's a 980 01:06:44.239 --> 01:06:46.760 guy named Thomas Sowell, and he's an author, and he happens to be 981 01:06:46.800 --> 01:06:53.719 a black Conservative, and he offered a simple explanation about why we agree disagree 982 01:06:53.719 --> 01:06:57.840 about politics. We disagree about politics, he said, because we disagree about 983 01:06:57.920 --> 01:07:00.679 human nature. Listen to this. I think it is pretty goo. One 984 01:07:00.719 --> 01:07:04.599 school believes humans are malleable and can be perfected. They believe that social ills 985 01:07:04.599 --> 01:07:10.559 and evils can be overcome through collective actions and encourage humans to behave better. 986 01:07:11.039 --> 01:07:13.719 They are puzzles that can be solved. We just need to do the right 987 01:07:13.760 --> 01:07:16.519 things, say the right things, enact the right policies, spend enough money, 988 01:07:16.719 --> 01:07:20.079 and social ills will be no more. That's one school, right, 989 01:07:20.679 --> 01:07:26.199 Guess who that is? Liberals? Yeah. By contrast, the other school 990 01:07:26.239 --> 01:07:30.199 believes that human nature is a universal constant. No amount of social engineering can 991 01:07:30.320 --> 01:07:35.039 change the sober reality of human self interest or the fact that human empathy and 992 01:07:35.119 --> 01:07:41.119 social resources are scarce. People who see things this way. Believe most political 993 01:07:41.119 --> 01:07:45.239 and social problems will never be solved when you look at it that way, 994 01:07:45.320 --> 01:07:48.719 when you're approaching it, and those I thought those were. That was pretty 995 01:07:48.719 --> 01:07:53.920 insightful on his part, and I probably thought about that around the edges. 996 01:07:53.960 --> 01:07:56.480 But to put it in those terms, it makes all the sense in the 997 01:07:56.480 --> 01:08:01.920 world. If you believe that humans are innately good, and all social ills 998 01:08:01.960 --> 01:08:05.920 can be corrected and all crime can be gone if we just do the right 999 01:08:06.000 --> 01:08:10.760 thing, say the right thing, spend the right money, that gives you 1000 01:08:10.800 --> 01:08:14.880 a whole different outlook than if you believe in reality. I totally agree. 1001 01:08:15.880 --> 01:08:18.159 But like me and Sebat, we talk about this all the time. At 1002 01:08:18.159 --> 01:08:21.000 the end of the day, what comes down to it for me is human 1003 01:08:21.039 --> 01:08:26.319 incentives. We all know humans work off incentives, and if you give something 1004 01:08:26.319 --> 01:08:29.119 to a human, they're not gonna work as hard. If you don't give 1005 01:08:29.159 --> 01:08:30.560 it to him, they're gonna work get We'll work harder to get it, 1006 01:08:30.920 --> 01:08:34.880 and overall the course of society, the course of humanity, we've seen that 1007 01:08:35.000 --> 01:08:40.039 the more the more struggle, the more success that comes out of it. 1008 01:08:40.239 --> 01:08:44.760 True. Look at the example in the NFL Deshaun Watson. Okay, he 1009 01:08:45.119 --> 01:08:46.279 was sorry of an underdi I mean, he was a fourteenth overall pick. 1010 01:08:46.319 --> 01:08:48.199 He went to the Texas. He's but you have to play. You have 1011 01:08:48.239 --> 01:08:50.920 to do wealth in order to get you a big contract. And he's playing. 1012 01:08:50.920 --> 01:08:55.600 He's doing well, he's doing all this stuff. He gets two hundred 1013 01:08:55.600 --> 01:08:59.920 and thirty million dollars guaranteed to go play for the Browns. He's played roughly 1014 01:09:00.159 --> 01:09:02.279 forty percent of the snap since he got that. He doesn't and now there's 1015 01:09:02.319 --> 01:09:05.640 skeptics out there saying he doesn't even want to play football anymore because he doesn't 1016 01:09:05.680 --> 01:09:09.560 have any incentive to play because regardless of what he does, they have to 1017 01:09:09.560 --> 01:09:12.520 pa him two hundred thirty million dollars over the next five years. He doesn't 1018 01:09:12.600 --> 01:09:14.960 have to play. Well, it hurts yourself, right exactly. He says 1019 01:09:14.960 --> 01:09:16.920 he's hurt all the time. They had multiple doctors now tell him that he's 1020 01:09:16.960 --> 01:09:20.119 not hurt and he is clear to play if he wants to play. He 1021 01:09:20.159 --> 01:09:24.560 still says, no, I'm not playing because he doesn't want to play because 1022 01:09:24.560 --> 01:09:27.960 he already got his money and he has no incentive. There's no bonus structure 1023 01:09:28.000 --> 01:09:30.560 for his contract where you have to throw this X amount of yards run for 1024 01:09:30.600 --> 01:09:34.479 this score. This touch anything. We talked about it with the You had 1025 01:09:34.479 --> 01:09:39.960 the example of the socialist teacher that was teaching his students and having the test, 1026 01:09:40.000 --> 01:09:43.079 and I mean you know the story better. I mean you could tell 1027 01:09:43.079 --> 01:09:45.479 it better than that. I remember it, but not enough tell it right 1028 01:09:45.479 --> 01:09:49.640 now. Oh yeah, no, so it's the college professor got a couple 1029 01:09:49.640 --> 01:09:54.279 of sorry though good story. Beginning of the year, he said, Oh 1030 01:09:54.359 --> 01:09:58.159 yeah, I'm going to average out everybody's great, so the class will get 1031 01:09:58.159 --> 01:10:00.399 the average test grade. So the smart kids and all the kids that work 1032 01:10:00.439 --> 01:10:04.439 hard to study hard in the first test of the year study their usual most 1033 01:10:04.640 --> 01:10:08.439 they got a's. The other kids that are lazy and didn't want to do 1034 01:10:08.479 --> 01:10:12.039 is said, screw whatever, we're gonna get an average. They didn't study. 1035 01:10:12.079 --> 01:10:15.359 They got ss. So the first average of the test was roughly a 1036 01:10:15.560 --> 01:10:18.359 high CE or beer or something like that. He said. And then as 1037 01:10:18.359 --> 01:10:21.159 you went through the semester, I think they had four tests went through the 1038 01:10:21.199 --> 01:10:25.600 semester, the grades periodically got lower, and the average at the end of 1039 01:10:25.640 --> 01:10:29.600 the year was a D. Because the kids that studied hard and tried hard 1040 01:10:29.640 --> 01:10:31.359 and wanted to get a good grade, because that's what they're used to and 1041 01:10:31.359 --> 01:10:34.359 that's how they do all their studying. They said, screw it too, 1042 01:10:34.720 --> 01:10:36.720 Like, why am I going to work hard? Man? If that dude 1043 01:10:36.720 --> 01:10:41.399 gets the same test score as me, why would I work hard? Socialism 1044 01:10:41.479 --> 01:10:45.000 in the classroom. Socialism in the classroom. And is evident that the grade 1045 01:10:45.199 --> 01:10:48.800 just just constantly went down, down, down, down down the average until 1046 01:10:48.800 --> 01:10:53.000 everybody was failing because they ain't care. Wow, humans will always work on 1047 01:10:53.079 --> 01:10:56.119 incentives. And if you don't believe that, then you just don't understand basic 1048 01:10:56.199 --> 01:10:59.319 human nature. Like a good discussion. Hey, maybe they're not going to 1049 01:10:59.399 --> 01:11:02.119 qualify for them MasterCard, then you know, MasterCard report needs to hit. 1050 01:11:02.159 --> 01:11:06.159 You know, this is a weird one, master How are you going to 1051 01:11:06.199 --> 01:11:13.439 tie this? This is so weird. Master Card hit an all time high 1052 01:11:14.079 --> 01:11:16.920 a month ago. A month ago. Since then, it had drifted eight 1053 01:11:16.920 --> 01:11:24.159 percent south. Dropped another five percent on Thursday on prospects for slower consumer spending 1054 01:11:24.479 --> 01:11:31.039 due to high credit card balances and the resumption of student loan payments. Makes 1055 01:11:31.079 --> 01:11:34.720 sense, and that's amazing how you can go from an all time high to 1056 01:11:34.760 --> 01:11:38.439 a boy, nobody wants to own this crap. Give it a year that 1057 01:11:38.520 --> 01:11:44.319 student loan payment could be a big issue. Start a year because people are 1058 01:11:44.319 --> 01:11:45.760 going to start having to pay it back with their that's going to be a 1059 01:11:45.760 --> 01:11:48.840 lot increased. I'm saying a year because it just started this month. Yeah, 1060 01:11:49.239 --> 01:11:53.960 and what we decided that what what percentage of the population that student loans 1061 01:11:55.079 --> 01:11:59.720 or something? It was pretty good. There wasn't forty three. I think 1062 01:11:59.760 --> 01:12:02.840 it's like thirteen percent of the population has student loan payments that they've got to 1063 01:12:02.880 --> 01:12:05.760 make. We're coming up to the end of this segment. We'll be back 1064 01:12:05.800 --> 01:12:10.720 with Pat Quigley. Yes, we will talking about medicare and it is that 1065 01:12:10.800 --> 01:12:12.920 time of the year. And yeah, list of this one. This is 1066 01:12:13.039 --> 01:12:15.279 good stuff. We'll be back right other just break. Thanks again for listening. 1067 01:12:15.439 --> 01:12:20.600 We'll be right back. Say it's only welcome back to the Money Matter 1068 01:12:20.640 --> 01:12:24.159 Show. My name is Todd Lick. I'm here with Sebastian Bors, CD, 1069 01:12:24.319 --> 01:12:27.439 David Sherwood, and Dylan Greenberg. Next segment, Well, we will, 1070 01:12:27.600 --> 01:12:30.520 I promise Pat quickly will this segment. No, but Pat's going to 1071 01:12:30.560 --> 01:12:34.600 be in an alignment. Yes, this is very confusing. We did. 1072 01:12:34.880 --> 01:12:39.680 We ran through all the earnings last segment. I want to just finish up 1073 01:12:39.720 --> 01:12:43.119 on this there's about twenty nine percent of S and P five hundred companies that 1074 01:12:43.159 --> 01:12:46.560 have reported third quarter results so far. Earnings are up eleven percent overall. 1075 01:12:47.119 --> 01:12:51.319 But is the interesting part. You take out the contributions from the magnificent seven 1076 01:12:51.359 --> 01:12:57.239 stocks, the average GPS growth would drop to a negative eight point six percent. 1077 01:12:58.199 --> 01:13:01.119 Just showing negative eight point six just showing you how much the magnificence said, 1078 01:13:01.199 --> 01:13:03.760 that seems severe. Yeah, I mean, just got to keep that 1079 01:13:03.800 --> 01:13:08.680 in mind that this market's a little fabricated by those magnificent seven. Yeah, 1080 01:13:08.720 --> 01:13:13.960 we are experiencing the second consecutive year down. I don't know if the SMP 1081 01:13:14.079 --> 01:13:16.359 is going to close positive or negative, but in reality, the equal weight 1082 01:13:16.319 --> 01:13:21.279 to S and P five hundred is down the second consecutive year. And that's 1083 01:13:21.319 --> 01:13:27.319 only happened twice in the last seventy years. Each time it happened, coming 1084 01:13:27.359 --> 01:13:31.640 out of that two year down was a pretty strong rally. And so just 1085 01:13:31.800 --> 01:13:36.079 hang in there, don't be don't be I guess my cautious point here was 1086 01:13:36.319 --> 01:13:41.239 don't get don't be too conservative, Marcus. Come down ten percent, that's 1087 01:13:41.279 --> 01:13:45.840 the time to start getting a little more aggressive. Comes down fifteen percent, 1088 01:13:45.079 --> 01:13:49.239 you get more aggressive comes down twenty percent, you get even more aggressive. 1089 01:13:49.520 --> 01:13:53.760 Don't be concerned. Don't be thinking, boy, I got to get out 1090 01:13:53.800 --> 01:13:56.159 of this. This is just going to go down and down and down. 1091 01:13:56.479 --> 01:14:00.720 It will reverse. Oh yeah, I was just gonna exactly. So adding 1092 01:14:00.800 --> 01:14:03.159 on to that, there's a study done that I was saying the number one 1093 01:14:03.159 --> 01:14:09.399 factors behind American successful investments what Americans think makes a successful investment in how they 1094 01:14:09.520 --> 01:14:13.560 found their successful investments. Thirty three percent of investors. What do you think 1095 01:14:13.600 --> 01:14:19.279 They're number one goal or their number one attribute was the number one successful investor 1096 01:14:19.600 --> 01:14:28.079 discipline? Uh? Yeah, take the emotion out of it. Sebastian growth. 1097 01:14:28.560 --> 01:14:31.640 So it's investors attribute their greatest investing success to patients through the volatility. 1098 01:14:32.359 --> 01:14:35.680 Yeah. So you stay patient if you guy, if you're comfortable with your 1099 01:14:35.720 --> 01:14:39.479 risk tolerance, you just stay patient through all of the ups and downs and 1100 01:14:39.479 --> 01:14:43.079 it will come out on top at some point if you have the time. 1101 01:14:43.439 --> 01:14:45.640 And not only that, I mean for I want to really spend a little 1102 01:14:45.680 --> 01:14:48.399 bit of time on twenty thirty year olds and four year olds. If you 1103 01:14:48.439 --> 01:14:53.439 are starting an investment account, or you're contributing to an investment account, time 1104 01:14:53.520 --> 01:14:56.159 is your most valuable asset, and in fact, you kind of want to 1105 01:14:56.159 --> 01:14:59.039 see the markets come down for a while here because then you get a buy 1106 01:14:59.079 --> 01:15:00.680 in more and more, or and more at the lower times. It's when 1107 01:15:00.720 --> 01:15:04.039 it's taken off like it did in twenty twenty that you're not getting as much 1108 01:15:04.720 --> 01:15:09.159 on fund your portfolio that you could have if you bought in more before it 1109 01:15:09.199 --> 01:15:12.159 took off. Right, So for the twenty and thirty year olds, it's 1110 01:15:12.199 --> 01:15:15.159 different than the sixty and seven year olds. Right, the twenty and thirty 1111 01:15:15.199 --> 01:15:16.520 year olds they want the market to drop because I means they're buying in lower 1112 01:15:16.520 --> 01:15:18.880 and lower. And like you say all the time, Dave, there was 1113 01:15:18.960 --> 01:15:23.159 a one thousand, you were wearing the caps on one thousand dow right now 1114 01:15:23.279 --> 01:15:26.600 one thousand, and now it's thirty three thousand down, so down to thirty 1115 01:15:26.640 --> 01:15:30.439 three thousand, So we I mean imagine back when the dow was one thousand, 1116 01:15:30.479 --> 01:15:31.800 and then it came down big time after it hit a thousand, all 1117 01:15:31.800 --> 01:15:34.760 the way down to whatever it did. You wanted to see that because again 1118 01:15:34.800 --> 01:15:38.199 it went all the way up to thirty three. So when you are at 1119 01:15:38.199 --> 01:15:42.239 a twenty thirty year old, even in your forties, this is a good 1120 01:15:42.319 --> 01:15:45.720 opportunity. You're exciting. This is exciting, right, It's exciting. And 1121 01:15:45.800 --> 01:15:48.520 you know, the thing I've been telling people all week is if you take 1122 01:15:48.560 --> 01:15:54.479 the period from two thousand January of two thousand to December of two thousand and 1123 01:15:54.680 --> 01:16:00.359 twenty, right that twenty year period, you went through the tech bubble, 1124 01:16:00.399 --> 01:16:04.359 the nine to eleven slash tech bubble meltdown where the market dropped fifty percent. 1125 01:16:04.760 --> 01:16:10.079 Then seven years later you go through it again with the banking crisis, another 1126 01:16:10.199 --> 01:16:13.439 fifty percent decline in the market. If you'd have bought the S and P 1127 01:16:13.560 --> 01:16:18.000 five hundred before that started and just left it alone, your twenty year average 1128 01:16:18.039 --> 01:16:23.039 would have been seven point two percent per year, and you had two of 1129 01:16:23.079 --> 01:16:27.760 the worst market crashes in history. That ought to tell you that what you 1130 01:16:27.960 --> 01:16:32.520 do when it's like this, as you become more fully invested less defensive. 1131 01:16:32.560 --> 01:16:38.239 Dean mentioned in his monologue, we had a ten percent inverse position, ten 1132 01:16:38.319 --> 01:16:43.399 percent betting to the downside. We took off about a third of that a 1133 01:16:43.439 --> 01:16:46.680 month ago. Today, Friday, I'm sorry, Friday, we took off 1134 01:16:46.680 --> 01:16:50.800 another third of that. If the market were to drop from forty one hundred 1135 01:16:50.880 --> 01:16:55.319 down to four thousand or thirty nine to fifty. We take off the rest 1136 01:16:55.359 --> 01:16:59.760 of it. You buy insurance to protect you from a calamity, right, 1137 01:17:00.079 --> 01:17:03.199 and if you feel like that that essentially what we're doing is we're cashing in 1138 01:17:03.239 --> 01:17:08.600 on the insurance policy. People that have cash on the sideline. We've been 1139 01:17:08.680 --> 01:17:13.520 putting that cash to work, not all in, but we're actually becoming more 1140 01:17:13.680 --> 01:17:17.279 invested every one hundred points down. That's what you do. There's an example 1141 01:17:17.319 --> 01:17:21.479 we always tell clients too. It's the idea that say Apple comes out that 1142 01:17:21.520 --> 01:17:26.239 I phone fifteen and they offer it out a twenty percent discount, you're going 1143 01:17:26.319 --> 01:17:29.399 to go buy one, gonna get It's just not thousand dollars anymore, it's 1144 01:17:29.399 --> 01:17:30.319 eight hundred dollars. You're like, oh, that's a good deal. I'm 1145 01:17:30.359 --> 01:17:34.279 going to go buy that. It's the same idea in a stock. If 1146 01:17:34.279 --> 01:17:38.359 you're buying Apple stock and it's down twenty percent, that's a twenty percent discount 1147 01:17:38.359 --> 01:17:41.439 from where it was. But for some reason, it's the backwards thinking and 1148 01:17:41.479 --> 01:17:45.319 the emotional part of investing is always down twenty percent, it's going to go 1149 01:17:45.319 --> 01:17:47.319 to zero, and that's what's always thought about, so you get too hesitant 1150 01:17:47.359 --> 01:17:50.199 to buy in when it's on the downslope. But the idea is you're buying 1151 01:17:50.199 --> 01:17:53.960 it at a discount. If it's a good company, your thought is going 1152 01:17:54.039 --> 01:17:56.479 to come back. It's not going to just stay down and down and down 1153 01:17:56.479 --> 01:17:59.399 and down. It's just the markets. And I know we talk about bitcoin 1154 01:17:59.439 --> 01:18:01.399 earlier, but this is the bitcoin community has it right. When they when 1155 01:18:01.399 --> 01:18:04.680 the market's going down, they always they're on their Twitters, they're on their 1156 01:18:05.000 --> 01:18:09.039 now x, they're on their all their forums saying, oh, this is 1157 01:18:09.079 --> 01:18:12.239 the greatest opportunity. This is when we buy more. This is they love 1158 01:18:12.279 --> 01:18:15.720 it when it drops because they're buying more because in their mind they're thinking it's 1159 01:18:15.760 --> 01:18:18.680 going to go back up and they want it to come down. Right. 1160 01:18:18.680 --> 01:18:21.520 And so when you see that big red candle down and you're in your twenties 1161 01:18:21.560 --> 01:18:25.560 and thirties, forties, your eyes should light up, especially if it's a 1162 01:18:25.640 --> 01:18:29.479 quality company, it says, and even if you're older, and I'm not 1163 01:18:29.520 --> 01:18:31.319 saying, if you have enough money to live comfortably for the rest of your 1164 01:18:31.359 --> 01:18:34.520 life, you do not need to take any more risk. There'd be two 1165 01:18:34.560 --> 01:18:39.760 reasons to be in the stock market. One would be for to you don't 1166 01:18:39.800 --> 01:18:42.399 need to increase your net worth. So really the only there's two reasons to 1167 01:18:42.399 --> 01:18:45.920 be in the stock market, right, increase your net worth or entertainment. 1168 01:18:45.720 --> 01:18:48.600 Well, increasing your net worth goes away, So the only reason to be 1169 01:18:48.600 --> 01:18:51.640 in the stock market is for entertainment. If the market's going down, that's 1170 01:18:51.680 --> 01:18:56.479 not very entertaining. So if you were or to at that point, say, 1171 01:18:56.560 --> 01:18:59.399 you know, I'm seventy five years old, I'd like to just have 1172 01:18:59.479 --> 01:19:03.159 a one hundred percent tbls and te notes and treasure and corporate bond. I 1173 01:19:03.239 --> 01:19:06.239 get that. I get that. I have no problem with that. But 1174 01:19:06.279 --> 01:19:12.159 we've got a very strange business in that we have a big sale and nobody 1175 01:19:12.159 --> 01:19:15.279 comes in. We get prices back to the highest they have ever been. 1176 01:19:15.640 --> 01:19:20.000 Our phones are ringing off the hook. That's backwards. That's just backwards. 1177 01:19:20.159 --> 01:19:26.439 So one of the primary things that a money manager brings to the table is 1178 01:19:26.479 --> 01:19:30.000 we take the emotion out of investing. And so someone said, that's what 1179 01:19:30.039 --> 01:19:33.560 you're paying for. That's the primary thing you're paying for with a money manager 1180 01:19:33.920 --> 01:19:38.720 is to take the emotion out. Yep, exactly. And that's what we 1181 01:19:38.800 --> 01:19:41.239 try and do best. We try to do it all the time. We 1182 01:19:41.319 --> 01:19:44.560 do that, but we take the emotion out by going through the whole financial 1183 01:19:44.600 --> 01:19:48.159 planning. And also the thing that's seven point two percent that did you mentioned 1184 01:19:48.159 --> 01:19:53.640 on that twenty year from twenty twenty twenty twenty, Imagine that six point one 1185 01:19:53.760 --> 01:19:57.279 five and you're like, oh, that looks really good. But then you 1186 01:19:57.279 --> 01:20:00.960 you have the two worst crashes in history and you still beat that six. 1187 01:20:00.159 --> 01:20:03.600 Yes, So just because you're getting all these great rates thrown at you now 1188 01:20:03.720 --> 01:20:06.439 doesn't mean that they're always going to be there. It doesn't mean that's going 1189 01:20:06.520 --> 01:20:09.600 to be the best rate that you could have ended up with. Like I 1190 01:20:09.640 --> 01:20:11.960 said in one of the earlier segments, I had a client call me and 1191 01:20:12.000 --> 01:20:15.079 said, maybe we ought to take some of the money out of stocks and 1192 01:20:15.119 --> 01:20:17.880 put it into this five percent bonds. I'm saying, well, stocks have 1193 01:20:17.920 --> 01:20:21.800 averaged twelve percent for the last hundred years. How much of your twelve percent 1194 01:20:21.840 --> 01:20:26.479 money do you want to move to five? Well that was the end of 1195 01:20:26.479 --> 01:20:29.640 that conversation. They say, yeah, you say you're right, And he's 1196 01:20:29.640 --> 01:20:31.199 his experienced investor. I mean, you know, he knows, he knows 1197 01:20:31.199 --> 01:20:34.319 better. I don't even know where that was was coming from with him. 1198 01:20:34.520 --> 01:20:39.640 Did you see where the China defense minister was fired on Tuesday. I did 1199 01:20:39.680 --> 01:20:42.960 see that. It's interesting he's been missing for what two months? Two months, 1200 01:20:43.000 --> 01:20:45.439 he hasn't been seen in public, so they decided might as well fire 1201 01:20:45.520 --> 01:20:50.520 instance he's not coming in. Yeah, I'm sure two days ago. Well, 1202 01:20:50.600 --> 01:20:55.720 you know, there's odd things that happened in China. I'm thinking that 1203 01:20:55.760 --> 01:20:58.840 it is odd though, that he hasn't come in for two months. Yeah, 1204 01:20:58.880 --> 01:21:01.159 And it's like the defense and they're also the most surveilled state in the 1205 01:21:01.239 --> 01:21:03.880 world. I'm pretty sure. Well, maybe nor's creeds more, but I 1206 01:21:03.880 --> 01:21:06.399 mean, I'm sure they know where he is. I don't think you'd have 1207 01:21:06.439 --> 01:21:10.600 a hard time finding him in China if you. I don't think the facial 1208 01:21:10.640 --> 01:21:14.079 recognition and all that. You know. Uh, you know. The economy 1209 01:21:14.079 --> 01:21:18.039 continues to be strong. That GDP est for Q three four point nine, 1210 01:21:18.079 --> 01:21:24.680 that was really strong. Monday of last week we saw three merger announcements in 1211 01:21:24.760 --> 01:21:30.239 one day. You don't see that kind of activity if corporations are concerned about 1212 01:21:30.279 --> 01:21:33.239 the economy rolling over. Well, exactly this time last year, we weren't 1213 01:21:33.239 --> 01:21:36.319 seeing a lot of m and as. Yes, it's nervous, yes, 1214 01:21:36.359 --> 01:21:41.600 absolutely so. All of the indicators we have is that we're on a pretty 1215 01:21:41.680 --> 01:21:45.199 nice glide path for the economy. What's caused is selling this past week or 1216 01:21:45.239 --> 01:21:49.039 the past two weeks really has been this this concern about the war. I 1217 01:21:49.039 --> 01:21:53.680 think the uncertainty of it. What happens if this blows up, you know, 1218 01:21:53.720 --> 01:21:57.079 and becomes a big, a big deal, uh, starts to go 1219 01:21:57.119 --> 01:22:00.720 outside of Israel's borders, significantly outside of what if i Ran gets involved, 1220 01:22:00.720 --> 01:22:04.840 what if the United States gets involved with Iran? All of these things I 1221 01:22:04.840 --> 01:22:11.199 think are It's just fear and fear. Uh. The two biggest emotions for 1222 01:22:11.359 --> 01:22:15.560 moving the market are fear and greed. And fear is a much stronger emotion 1223 01:22:15.119 --> 01:22:19.479 than greed, which is why you always hear people say the stock goes up 1224 01:22:19.800 --> 01:22:25.760 the stairway and down the escalator, because that's exactly what happens. Fear is 1225 01:22:25.800 --> 01:22:30.399 a much stronger emotion. We had a good intel left for dead a year 1226 01:22:30.439 --> 01:22:35.199 ago because PC cycle had run its course. Right, everybody that needed a 1227 01:22:35.239 --> 01:22:39.880 new PC during the pandemic got one, including me, you know, about 1228 01:22:39.920 --> 01:22:43.399 my second PC of my life. Uh. Don't use I don't think I'll 1229 01:22:43.439 --> 01:22:46.239 ever buy a PC. Don't use laptops a lot. But the bottom line 1230 01:22:46.319 --> 01:22:50.920 is h The feeling was while they're they're done, you know, because everybody's 1231 01:22:50.960 --> 01:22:57.560 got all the lap and they've been very misguided in the types of chips that 1232 01:22:57.560 --> 01:23:00.079 they've been. They've been very poorly managed company. Uh, they've just been 1233 01:23:00.159 --> 01:23:04.479 the wrong place. They haven't had the auto ships, they haven't had the 1234 01:23:04.479 --> 01:23:08.760 cell phone ships, you know, they haven't had the chips for the growth 1235 01:23:08.760 --> 01:23:12.279 areas. It's just been the PC's. But it's interesting, it's up forty 1236 01:23:13.119 --> 01:23:15.800 in the last twelve months, asak Is gained another eight percent of the open 1237 01:23:15.840 --> 01:23:20.960 on Friday after a better than expected quarterly report. It is kind of interesting. 1238 01:23:21.359 --> 01:23:27.680 We were had a we had a client in the office on Friday and 1239 01:23:28.199 --> 01:23:34.199 he was wearing hokah shoes, right, and the whole hokah shoes. Todd 1240 01:23:34.199 --> 01:23:39.199 mentioned that he hadn't he hadn't seen the Uh, I didn't, I didn't 1241 01:23:39.199 --> 01:23:41.760 know what they were. Yeah, and hokah shoes are all that right, 1242 01:23:41.840 --> 01:23:45.720 Yeah, they're are awesome. All the nurses wearing, the teachers wearing, 1243 01:23:45.880 --> 01:23:49.479 so everybody that knows something about shoes except me, everyone who stands on their 1244 01:23:49.520 --> 01:23:54.479 feet all day for a living. Yeah, hokah shoes. Yeah, they're 1245 01:23:54.680 --> 01:23:58.479 They're like pillows. And are they Do you run in them? I do 1246 01:23:58.640 --> 01:24:00.800 that. They have really good trail running shoes. The trails are real rough, 1247 01:24:00.800 --> 01:24:03.359 you know, so I like extra padding. But I wouldn't wear them 1248 01:24:03.359 --> 01:24:06.800 for regular running. But yeah, for trail running, they're great, fantastic. 1249 01:24:06.800 --> 01:24:10.880 In other words, it's funny because I had really had not pa any 1250 01:24:10.880 --> 01:24:14.680 attention to it, hadn't seen him. Decker Outdoor makes them? Right? 1251 01:24:14.720 --> 01:24:16.319 Is that where you buy them? No, you go to Hokah. I 1252 01:24:16.399 --> 01:24:19.840 think Decker just owns the brand Hoka online. You go to Hokah. Yeah, 1253 01:24:20.000 --> 01:24:24.560 okay. Anyway, that the stock jump ten percent at the open on 1254 01:24:24.600 --> 01:24:29.000 Friday after reporting a strong quarter and strong guidance, so apparently what you're saying 1255 01:24:29.000 --> 01:24:32.800 about it is just true. Yeah. Mrk rally four percent on Thursday in 1256 01:24:32.840 --> 01:24:38.319 a very weak market after a strong quarter, brings their shows back to unchanged 1257 01:24:38.399 --> 01:24:41.560 on the year. They had to rally to five percent to get back to 1258 01:24:41.640 --> 01:24:46.319 unchanged on the year. We appreciate your joining us on this Sunday morning. 1259 01:24:46.399 --> 01:24:51.159 Right, we'll be backgrafting break. Welcome back to everybody. It's the money. 1260 01:24:51.159 --> 01:24:55.319 Am out of the show last segment and we have pac Quigley today, 1261 01:24:55.680 --> 01:24:58.359 Yes, we do. I don't know if you want to introduce the rest 1262 01:24:58.399 --> 01:25:00.520 of the people in the show. Tog Glick and David show, it's also 1263 01:25:00.560 --> 01:25:04.479 here. I know who you was, yes, but yes, the main 1264 01:25:04.640 --> 01:25:08.399 star here is Pat Quigley. We're very excited to have you on the show. 1265 01:25:08.960 --> 01:25:12.000 Welcome. First off, thanks good to be here. Yeah, I 1266 01:25:12.000 --> 01:25:15.000 mean, obviously this time of year is the most crucial time for medicare and 1267 01:25:15.039 --> 01:25:18.119 it's your busiest time of year, so thank you for taking some time to 1268 01:25:18.159 --> 01:25:23.920 get out here with us today. We want to go over all the basics 1269 01:25:23.960 --> 01:25:29.079 and the complexities of medicare. So really we know that when you're working, 1270 01:25:29.119 --> 01:25:31.600 you're on your health employer plan and you really don't really worry about health insurance 1271 01:25:31.600 --> 01:25:33.680 too much. You get what you get, you don't throw a fit, 1272 01:25:33.760 --> 01:25:38.680 right, correct, And then once we hit that retirement age around sixty five, 1273 01:25:38.760 --> 01:25:43.119 things start to change. So for the average person maybe at sixty four 1274 01:25:43.279 --> 01:25:46.520 sixty five, who is still working not working, how does that come into 1275 01:25:46.520 --> 01:25:50.840 play, How does that phase in life start for them? Well, first 1276 01:25:50.880 --> 01:25:57.319 of all, though with all transparency, both myself and my wife used Pat, 1277 01:25:58.359 --> 01:26:01.479 So that's a good thing if you trust me, I wouldn't have him 1278 01:26:01.520 --> 01:26:05.039 on here and be using him if that's not the case. But he's helped 1279 01:26:05.119 --> 01:26:09.800 us tremendously, but I wanted you people to know that that was the case. 1280 01:26:09.880 --> 01:26:14.960 Full disclosure. Well, you know, honestly, what I see when 1281 01:26:15.000 --> 01:26:16.920 I talk to these people is just it's like a deer in headlights, fear. 1282 01:26:17.319 --> 01:26:19.800 I don't get this. It's too confusing. Where do I go, 1283 01:26:19.880 --> 01:26:24.159 what do I do? What's all the link? It's a different language out 1284 01:26:24.199 --> 01:26:27.520 there, and you know, they just don't speak the language, and so 1285 01:26:27.600 --> 01:26:31.000 what I see is just fear, lack of understanding. You know, their 1286 01:26:31.079 --> 01:26:34.840 mailboxes are just getting buried with stuff. They don't know what to do with 1287 01:26:34.920 --> 01:26:38.720 it. They end up just stacking it on the kitchen counter waiting for an 1288 01:26:38.760 --> 01:26:43.560 answer to come to them. So it's it's fear and confusion and frustration. 1289 01:26:43.880 --> 01:26:46.359 And you know what we see is our financial planning help relieve a lot of 1290 01:26:46.399 --> 01:26:49.479 that fear and frustration for them, because in our field as well, there's 1291 01:26:49.479 --> 01:26:54.680 a lot of complexities. People don't understand the different investment returns, social security, 1292 01:26:54.720 --> 01:26:57.760 how that plays into their income and all that. So we see a 1293 01:26:57.760 --> 01:27:00.520 lot of the times when we do the financial plan. There's some that comes 1294 01:27:00.560 --> 01:27:03.760 up called the Health Goal and it actually projects out how much it's going to 1295 01:27:03.840 --> 01:27:09.239 cost for medicare in retirement. So maybe give let's start there, what's the 1296 01:27:09.279 --> 01:27:13.600 basic costs because I'm as far as I'm aware, Part A is normally free, 1297 01:27:13.720 --> 01:27:15.399 right, but the Part B is the one that everyone you have to 1298 01:27:15.439 --> 01:27:18.600 pay for. Correct. I used to say the same thing. A is 1299 01:27:18.640 --> 01:27:21.520 free. It's not free. You paid for it with your payroll right over 1300 01:27:21.520 --> 01:27:24.880 the years, so it's not free. But they don't have to pay a 1301 01:27:24.880 --> 01:27:28.520 premium at the time, so that's free. And then of course part B. 1302 01:27:29.000 --> 01:27:31.359 And let me back up real quick. You know, my understanding at 1303 01:27:31.439 --> 01:27:33.760 least my experience over the last thirty years with this is, you know, 1304 01:27:34.039 --> 01:27:38.880 especially the financial arena, I think it's changed for you guys in terms of 1305 01:27:38.920 --> 01:27:43.439 the planning for retirement. I think healthcare and healthcare costs are a lot bigger 1306 01:27:43.479 --> 01:27:46.520 of an issue absolutely of people than it used to be huge and one of 1307 01:27:46.560 --> 01:27:50.239 those things that almost nobody thinks about, right, and it can be a 1308 01:27:50.479 --> 01:27:56.359 deal breaker for a lot of people when they look at the costs. So, 1309 01:27:56.560 --> 01:27:59.760 you know, with the Part B premium, and of course you all 1310 01:27:59.800 --> 01:28:02.680 know how this works. But everyone there's there's a set standard premium. This 1311 01:28:02.760 --> 01:28:05.560 year it's one hundred and sixty four dollars and ninety cents per month for your 1312 01:28:05.560 --> 01:28:11.960 part B. Next year it's going up to one seventy four seventy so it 1313 01:28:11.960 --> 01:28:15.279 tends to go up every year. But that's just for people depending on their 1314 01:28:15.279 --> 01:28:18.640 income. And as you guys know, there's something called ERMA, income related 1315 01:28:18.920 --> 01:28:21.880 you know, something something something, but it's basically on your income, and 1316 01:28:23.199 --> 01:28:25.960 you know, you can go from one sixty four to ninety to over five 1317 01:28:26.039 --> 01:28:29.479 hundred dollars a month for your part B depending on your income. And that's 1318 01:28:29.479 --> 01:28:30.800 what a lot of people don't know. They just hear the one sixty four 1319 01:28:30.920 --> 01:28:33.920 ninety. They think that applies to everybody, and then they find out about 1320 01:28:34.000 --> 01:28:36.880 ERMA and what they're making. I think the only thing is is if you're 1321 01:28:36.880 --> 01:28:41.199 on you're just living on Social Security, that's the only place you really get 1322 01:28:41.199 --> 01:28:43.560 it, because you've got to be on the what almost twenty four thousand dollars 1323 01:28:43.680 --> 01:28:46.159 or something. No, it's pretty high. It's pretty high, actually, 1324 01:28:46.199 --> 01:28:50.479 So it's for next year sixty four the one sixty four ninety applies to They 1325 01:28:50.479 --> 01:28:55.720 look at whether you're you're filing joint or single. If you're a single person 1326 01:28:55.800 --> 01:28:58.680 making under this is for next year. If you're making less than one hundred 1327 01:28:58.720 --> 01:29:02.079 and three thousand dollars a year year adjusted gross income, then it'll be one 1328 01:29:02.159 --> 01:29:05.960 sixty four ninety albums. Well, next year one seventy four to seventy. 1329 01:29:06.159 --> 01:29:11.359 If you're a married couple making less than two hundred and six thousand dollars, 1330 01:29:11.680 --> 01:29:15.640 they just double it. Then you'll you'll pay the one seventy one seventy four 1331 01:29:15.680 --> 01:29:17.640 to seventy. But if you're more than that and it's tiered, it goes 1332 01:29:17.720 --> 01:29:21.399 up. You know, it'll be as high as five sixty five seventy five 1333 01:29:21.479 --> 01:29:26.520 per person for for it goes up fast, then it goes fast. It 1334 01:29:26.560 --> 01:29:30.560 goes fast. And a bracket for an individual is like you know, you 1335 01:29:30.640 --> 01:29:32.640 hit the five hundred once you cross like two hundred fifty thousand, right, 1336 01:29:32.720 --> 01:29:35.640 yeah, And that's very quot what we look at in financial planning when people 1337 01:29:35.640 --> 01:29:38.840 are like, I want to do a ross conversion, Well great, but 1338 01:29:38.920 --> 01:29:41.600 no, that's earned income, So we need to make sure that doesn't put 1339 01:29:41.640 --> 01:29:44.279 you in a new Medicare bracket. Correct, right, understanding that so that 1340 01:29:44.359 --> 01:29:46.399 would be for just one year though, well, right, but some people 1341 01:29:46.479 --> 01:29:50.159 do multiple ross conversions. And also how IRMA works is it's a two year 1342 01:29:50.239 --> 01:29:54.399 look back. People don't realize that it's not a one year look back. 1343 01:29:54.439 --> 01:29:57.000 It's a two year look back on your income. Yeah, so actually the 1344 01:29:57.039 --> 01:30:00.199 system, it's an automated system. It's a two year look back. So 1345 01:30:00.279 --> 01:30:02.680 what we're twenty twenty three, So somebody that was going on to medicare right 1346 01:30:02.720 --> 01:30:08.319 now, they'd be looking at their twenty twenty one taxes and that's the automated 1347 01:30:08.359 --> 01:30:12.239 system. But they do have an opportunity to appeal that if the one year 1348 01:30:12.279 --> 01:30:15.520 look back would be different, but that's not automatic. You have to appeal 1349 01:30:15.560 --> 01:30:16.640 it and they'll go back and look at your one year look back and if 1350 01:30:16.640 --> 01:30:19.359 it saves you some money, you're allowed to use the one year look back, 1351 01:30:19.560 --> 01:30:21.800 but then it goes back to the two year automatic. And this sounds 1352 01:30:21.800 --> 01:30:25.600 like kind of a dup at, but that a number you're giving that one 1353 01:30:25.680 --> 01:30:30.279 seventy four seventy that's per person, per person you had a man and wife, 1354 01:30:30.319 --> 01:30:32.159 that's each of you get there, correct, you know mine doesn't come 1355 01:30:32.199 --> 01:30:35.720 adjusted. I think it's around three hundred and forty bucks a month each and 1356 01:30:35.760 --> 01:30:39.520 that's the duct that's straight out of your sol security yes, right, yes, 1357 01:30:39.800 --> 01:30:42.800 yeah, if you're taking soci security right, yeah, yep. And 1358 01:30:42.800 --> 01:30:45.880 that's actually a good point. So let's say, for example, I'm sixty 1359 01:30:45.920 --> 01:30:48.920 six and I'm still working. Do I need to start Medicare? No? 1360 01:30:49.039 --> 01:30:50.960 You know, that's a great question. We get a call. It's a 1361 01:30:50.960 --> 01:30:55.720 lot of time. Padam turning sixty five, I have to sign up for 1362 01:30:55.800 --> 01:30:58.840 Medicare? What do I do? So they come in, they sit down 1363 01:30:58.880 --> 01:31:00.560 and we talk about it, and I said, well, are you working 1364 01:31:00.640 --> 01:31:02.000 yes? Are you going to continue to work? Yes? Do you have 1365 01:31:02.039 --> 01:31:05.479 group benefits? Yes? Well you don't have to do anything. So there's 1366 01:31:05.520 --> 01:31:09.039 just a lack of knowledge out there. People think, sixty five, you've 1367 01:31:09.079 --> 01:31:11.800 got to do something. But if you're going to keep working and you're going 1368 01:31:11.880 --> 01:31:16.319 to keep using your employer benefits, you don't have to do anything. But 1369 01:31:16.399 --> 01:31:21.600 as a nine year of Medicare veteran, we want to do something. It's 1370 01:31:21.640 --> 01:31:25.600 so much better than the most corporate plans. Well, I'll tell you so 1371 01:31:25.640 --> 01:31:29.680 our company does you know, it's primarily medical I mean Medicare, but we 1372 01:31:29.720 --> 01:31:31.520 do group benefits, we do the marketplace. You know, it's all health 1373 01:31:31.520 --> 01:31:36.600 insurance related. But I will tell you, by far, the most comprehensive 1374 01:31:36.680 --> 01:31:43.840 plans for healthcare is be found within Medicare. It's not group benefits. Medicare 1375 01:31:43.840 --> 01:31:48.840 advantage is unbelievable. It is unbelievable compared to group plans. It's spectacular. 1376 01:31:49.119 --> 01:31:54.319 Even though Medicare supplements depend on which is another option for people. You know, 1377 01:31:54.920 --> 01:31:58.800 how many people know have an insurance plan that will cover nearly ninety nine 1378 01:31:58.840 --> 01:32:01.840 percent of all your expenses for the year. Oh, I'm a perfect example. 1379 01:32:01.920 --> 01:32:08.119 I came off my own healthcare plan. I didn't say that much money. 1380 01:32:08.159 --> 01:32:10.399 Maybe one hundred and fifty dollars on the premiums. Yeah, yeah, 1381 01:32:10.399 --> 01:32:13.760 on premiums. But but it gives you so much more. I don't have 1382 01:32:13.760 --> 01:32:18.319 to pay for drugs, right, except the ones at the corner. And 1383 01:32:18.359 --> 01:32:21.720 that's that's a good point because now that we've talked about A and bre's, 1384 01:32:21.800 --> 01:32:26.399 the alphabet suit continues with C and D. Correct parts C and D and 1385 01:32:26.439 --> 01:32:30.239 so you're on part D, D G. Right, Well, so we 1386 01:32:30.279 --> 01:32:34.640 got just let's make sure when we talk Medicare, we're talking parts. When 1387 01:32:34.680 --> 01:32:41.279 we're talking medical gap plans, we're talking plans. So under Medicare, the 1388 01:32:41.319 --> 01:32:45.079 government, we have parts A, B, C, and D under the 1389 01:32:45.119 --> 01:32:48.760 Medicare Options supplements, also known as medic gap plans. You have ten different 1390 01:32:48.760 --> 01:32:51.920 plans and they give them a letter. Let's just make this more confusing. 1391 01:32:53.520 --> 01:32:58.760 Plans A through N. So you're on a plan G, right, correct, 1392 01:32:59.000 --> 01:33:01.399 and then you stand for what the greatness? Well, the greatest plan 1393 01:33:01.399 --> 01:33:04.760 you've got the Green Birch plan. I'll tell you I used this expression with 1394 01:33:04.800 --> 01:33:10.359 people. So G is the Cadillac for all the different letters for the plans. 1395 01:33:10.399 --> 01:33:14.359 Funny you say that because when I retired, when I want on Medicare. 1396 01:33:15.319 --> 01:33:20.399 Yeah, when I went on Medicare, I said to the guy I 1397 01:33:20.439 --> 01:33:23.760 was talking to as a friend of mine, I said, I want the 1398 01:33:23.760 --> 01:33:26.840 Cadillac. So I had F. And of course they don't do F anymore. 1399 01:33:26.920 --> 01:33:29.279 Plan used to F used to be the catalyact. And you want if 1400 01:33:29.279 --> 01:33:30.319 you're in F, you need to get out of it. You want to 1401 01:33:30.319 --> 01:33:32.960 get out of quick now if you can, because for most people they have 1402 01:33:33.000 --> 01:33:36.520 to medically qualify. But yeah, you do. They had at one time 1403 01:33:36.880 --> 01:33:41.680 you could switch. No anyway, I would did F. For a number 1404 01:33:41.680 --> 01:33:44.279 of years. I was paying like seven hundred bucks a month for yeah, 1405 01:33:44.479 --> 01:33:47.439 And then I went on a minute heard about a Medicare advantage. When I 1406 01:33:47.520 --> 01:33:50.760 Medicare advantage three years ago. Oh my god, no complaints. That's amazing. 1407 01:33:50.800 --> 01:33:55.159 I paid zero because you haven't had to do anything you I paid zero. 1408 01:33:55.279 --> 01:34:00.479 It covers dential, it covers vision, it covers hearing. It pay 1409 01:34:00.560 --> 01:34:04.279 zero. But you have to use certain providers No, not really, yes, 1410 01:34:04.319 --> 01:34:08.880 but they're all I've had no one say explain to them why one is 1411 01:34:08.920 --> 01:34:11.239 better than the other. Well, I'm not going to say that, because 1412 01:34:11.279 --> 01:34:15.720 it depends on the person. You're not getting that healthy and using because it's 1413 01:34:15.720 --> 01:34:20.479 in eighty twenty. If you're on original Medicare only it's eighty twenty and and 1414 01:34:20.760 --> 01:34:25.479 people you know you have a deductible right. That sounds familiar. It's eighty 1415 01:34:25.560 --> 01:34:29.720 twenty. Gee, that sounds familiar. But the difference is with group insurance, 1416 01:34:29.920 --> 01:34:33.199 employer insurance, you're twenty percent has an annual cap maybe three four or 1417 01:34:33.199 --> 01:34:38.560 five six thousand dollars. Under original Medicare, that be's not capped. So 1418 01:34:38.640 --> 01:34:42.439 if you don't have something a supplement or a medicap plan, I fill those 1419 01:34:42.520 --> 01:34:45.760 gaps. Your part B is unlimited, and so God forbid, you went 1420 01:34:45.760 --> 01:34:50.359 through something like chemotherapy, radiation, dialysis, that's twenty percent that can easily 1421 01:34:50.359 --> 01:34:54.760 get up to twenty thirty, forty thousand dollars for you. So that's the 1422 01:34:54.800 --> 01:34:59.920 you know, the big difference. But the main difference between a supplement is 1423 01:35:00.079 --> 01:35:02.479 and an advantage plan is. With a supplement, you're maintaining original Medicare, 1424 01:35:02.600 --> 01:35:04.960 meaning you're still using the red, white, and blue card, but you've 1425 01:35:05.000 --> 01:35:09.720 bought a private insurance policy to pay the gaps Medicare doesn't. On the advantage 1426 01:35:09.720 --> 01:35:15.239 plan, you're actually getting given up, assigning your rights to your original Medicare. 1427 01:35:15.279 --> 01:35:17.319 And I always tell people you're kind of like giving it to one insurance 1428 01:35:17.359 --> 01:35:21.319 company and now that one insurance company is responsible for your healthcare, not Medicare, 1429 01:35:21.640 --> 01:35:25.399 and that one insurance company is going to give you one card and that's 1430 01:35:25.399 --> 01:35:28.600 the only card you use, all right, So summing it up, if 1431 01:35:28.640 --> 01:35:32.600 you're getting close to Medicare or have Medicare and you're confused, give Pat a 1432 01:35:32.680 --> 01:35:35.359 call. Yeah. Well, and if you don't know, you know, 1433 01:35:35.359 --> 01:35:38.479 we can write your number down to whatever, but we'll get there. If 1434 01:35:38.479 --> 01:35:41.000 you call us, we have its number. Yeah, I would tell you 1435 01:35:41.039 --> 01:35:45.880 I find someone you can trust that's in the industry. It's that complicated, 1436 01:35:46.279 --> 01:35:49.880 and I can't tell you how often. It's probably daily somebody comes into my 1437 01:35:49.960 --> 01:35:54.359 office and I look at their mess, and you know they try to do 1438 01:35:54.399 --> 01:35:58.840 it themselves. Right, It doesn't cost you anything to use a broker, 1439 01:35:59.680 --> 01:36:01.159 but you know, make sure it's a good broker that works with all the 1440 01:36:01.199 --> 01:36:04.399 carriers. They've been in the business. You know, they're not driving around 1441 01:36:04.439 --> 01:36:08.560 in their car, you know, like a door salesman. You know there's 1442 01:36:08.640 --> 01:36:11.840 brick and mortar to their business and things like that. All right, appreciate 1443 01:36:11.880 --> 01:36:14.800 it. I know he doesn't want to say it. They do a great 1444 01:36:14.880 --> 01:36:18.319 job. All right. So we'll be back next week with your money matters. 1445 01:36:18.439 --> 01:36:20.960 All right, you need us, you want to plan, you want 1446 01:36:21.000 --> 01:36:27.119 anything, We're here, Come see us. We'll be back. Remember be 1447 01:36:27.199 --> 01:36:30.079 happy, yes, be healthy, important, and we all want to be 1448 01:36:30.560 --> 01:36:40.199 profitable. Say it's only able.