How the Fed and Labor Strikes are Impacting Markets

1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,799 Good morning everybody. It's Sunday morning. It's eight o'clock at seven ninety katus 2 00:00:04,839 --> 00:00:07,719 ten. This we'll be the money by the show for the next two hours. 3 00:00:07,719 --> 00:00:11,839 We will come and talk to you directly about what we think it's happening 4 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:17,359 with the markets. It's going on geopolitically and politically in our nation, and 5 00:00:17,399 --> 00:00:22,399 what's going on with these the markets. And not a good week again, 6 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:29,640 not a good month. It's not really surprising obviously, with being in September. 7 00:00:29,879 --> 00:00:36,759 Maybe the velocity of velocity of the down roof is a little bit more 8 00:00:36,799 --> 00:00:45,079 than I kind of expected. But guess what, it's okay. It's okay 9 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:51,039 because what we have going on right now is selling off the mentality changes. 10 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,399 And if you've been listening to us mitigating risk, you got Melanie to what 11 00:00:56,079 --> 00:01:00,000 buy at these lower levels than they were a little while ago. We would 12 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:06,040 down almost four three percent for the week across the board, were down six 13 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:11,280 percent on the knives back for the month, four point one percent for the 14 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:17,239 S and P and two percent for the Dow. We are now only up 15 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:21,719 twelve percent for the year on the SP five hundred, and the equalated S 16 00:01:21,799 --> 00:01:27,519 ANDP is only at one point one percent, so you can see markets fluctuate. 17 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:33,280 Valuations matter. The big news is when the market started kind of getting 18 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,959 a little itchy and then turned down, was after our Federal Reserve a chairman, 19 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:45,319 Jerome Powell basically said we're going to raise rates probably again at some time, 20 00:01:46,359 --> 00:01:49,439 and they'll be higher for longer. Well, what has he not said 21 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,439 that? That's what I didn't understand. Why the markets rallied and kind of 22 00:01:53,439 --> 00:01:59,359 broke out earlier in the week made no sense. Now do I think we 23 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,760 got a little shout, We can have a little bit more of a bounce. 24 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:08,479 We probably could maybe go up two three percent from here, But we 25 00:02:08,479 --> 00:02:15,039 remember October's were October's or the crash months. And I'm not saying it's a 26 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,000 crash coming. I'm just saying I'm staying cautious now. If we do have 27 00:02:19,039 --> 00:02:23,159 a big move back down in August in October, I mean I will absolutely 28 00:02:23,479 --> 00:02:29,000 start stepping up because I think that we'll have a bounce to probably middle of 29 00:02:29,039 --> 00:02:34,159 December before we have to hear whether or not he's going to raise interest rates. 30 00:02:34,159 --> 00:02:36,439 What our interest rates doing, what the economy is doing. I don't 31 00:02:36,439 --> 00:02:39,400 think the numbers are starting to show up the way they want them, so 32 00:02:39,439 --> 00:02:45,639 they're gonna have to keep raising weights. I mean, there were less people 33 00:02:45,719 --> 00:02:50,759 looking for unemployment, less people that were out of work more again this week. 34 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,280 And when that happens, the Federal Reserve gets concerned and there's u A 35 00:02:55,639 --> 00:03:02,879 W strike does not help things because if they're they're fighting for more money, 36 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,960 and if they're fighting for more money and they get it, everything goes up. 37 00:03:09,159 --> 00:03:16,120 We're trying to fight inflation. It's absurd that they don't come out and 38 00:03:16,159 --> 00:03:20,000 just stay hey, right now, it's not the time to be asking for 39 00:03:20,039 --> 00:03:23,479 more money because it just for inflation. So you get more money, what 40 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:28,120 about everybody else that's not getting more money? They can't afford it, So 41 00:03:28,159 --> 00:03:32,280 everyone just becomes very selfish. It's not like all the workers don't get some 42 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:38,000 decent money right now. And not against going ahead and sharing in profits and 43 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:45,120 doing things like that and benefits. I think that's a great way for employees 44 00:03:45,199 --> 00:03:50,120 of big corporations to be rewarded. But if you go in there for straight 45 00:03:50,159 --> 00:03:53,639 pay, it's inevitable you're never gonna be happy. If you're going to a 46 00:03:53,680 --> 00:04:00,080 government job for straight pay, it's inevitable. You're not gonna be happy. 47 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:06,719 I'm going to discuss that because it's very important to understand benefits and the cost 48 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:12,400 of benefits versus just wages in your pockets. This is the money amount of 49 00:04:12,439 --> 00:04:15,199 show and as you know, it's brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group. 50 00:04:15,599 --> 00:04:18,399 Greenberg Financial Group is both the registered investment advisory and they broke a dealer, 51 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:23,240 which means we're registered with the SEC. Members of Finland. Members are CIPPIC. 52 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:30,360 We talk a lot about ideas, strategies. Everything has risk, Everything 53 00:04:30,439 --> 00:04:32,839 has risks. That's why as soon as you ever speak to us, when 54 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,839 you come and talk to us, we always talk about your risk tolerance and 55 00:04:36,879 --> 00:04:40,639 then we try to match it up with your portfolio and what kind of risk 56 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:46,519 you have in your portfolio. That doesn't mean everything always works out. That's 57 00:04:46,519 --> 00:04:51,279 why you know what your risk portfolio is, more balanced, the more conservative, 58 00:04:53,759 --> 00:04:58,879 the smaller allocations, the more spread out you are, the more type 59 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:04,040 more fixed income you're in. It's a lot different saying hey, when the 60 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,759 market's going up like last week and we asked, hell, yeah, ustunce 61 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,279 would have been better because we're breaking out. We're going to forty five hundred 62 00:05:11,319 --> 00:05:16,519 plus and now you know at almost forty three hundred. That's a big move 63 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:21,360 off. That's one hundred and almost one hundred and someone points in the SMP 64 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:30,120 in one week. Hundred and twenty points. That's a big move down. 65 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,959 One hundred thirty points in the SMP. Five hundred is a big move down 66 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:39,680 in one week. Well, I've seen it in one day, but I'm 67 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:45,399 just talking about normal times. So where do we go here? I think 68 00:05:45,439 --> 00:05:48,399 that we might have a some support coming in pretty soon, and if we 69 00:05:48,439 --> 00:05:54,720 don't, well we'll go down to forty two hundred, remember ultimately, and 70 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,519 I think it's more next year's second quarter, third quarter next year, when 71 00:05:58,519 --> 00:06:04,399 the economic numbers are just now showing us that we are going to being a 72 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:08,959 slowdown and earnings aren't going to be there, in evaluations aren't going to be 73 00:06:08,959 --> 00:06:12,240 there, And that's when we can go back into the mid three thousands again, 74 00:06:12,319 --> 00:06:17,319 which would be a very big move down. You're talking twenty thirty percent 75 00:06:17,439 --> 00:06:20,839 down, if that's possible. I hope we haven't seen some signals of that 76 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:26,079 beforehand. See, the problem is they want inflation down, but our economy 77 00:06:26,319 --> 00:06:29,920 is going, is still going, and inflation is going and we're not seeing 78 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:34,800 that slowdown except in certain areas like retail. And that's real simple. People 79 00:06:34,879 --> 00:06:41,199 can't buy stuff if they're paying for more higher prices for gas and energy, 80 00:06:41,639 --> 00:06:45,199 and if they're paying for more prices and food, and if they're paying for 81 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:50,639 more prices and rent, then you're not gonna be able to have the retail 82 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:57,759 buying. The necessary needs are costing more. That's why they're trying to get 83 00:06:57,759 --> 00:07:03,160 inflation down. But they blame everybody body else, everybody else. Why don't 84 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:08,720 they just sit back and say, what is the number one thing, the 85 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:15,360 number one thing we can do right now to bring prices down collectively as Democrats 86 00:07:15,399 --> 00:07:24,519 and Republicans, And that is to put pressure on this White House to open 87 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,800 up the pipelines, open up the drilling, Let us drill here, let 88 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,480 us have our own oil energy, let's be energy dependent. How many times 89 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:40,959 have we told you that there's more coal fired plants, coal fired plants in 90 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:46,639 China and India opening up than we have in the entire United States. This 91 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:57,879 whole thing about climate control is really people control. We know that we feel 92 00:07:57,879 --> 00:08:01,480 it. They want to control us. They want this excess money by always 93 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:07,759 talking about the climate, as if we don't want better climate, but if 94 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,319 you don't get China and India and Pakistan and everybody else, Russia, Middle 95 00:08:11,319 --> 00:08:18,720 East, North Korea on board, then we're fighting an uphill battle that's hard 96 00:08:18,759 --> 00:08:24,079 to win, and we are going to suffer the consequence it because we are 97 00:08:24,199 --> 00:08:31,000 spending more on our energy a food. Remember if oil prices go up, 98 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:33,360 guess prices go up, Diesel prices go up, and it costs more to 99 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:39,039 do what run your electricity. It costs more to drive your car, It 100 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:43,799 costs more to eat because the freight, the travel, the trails, the 101 00:08:43,879 --> 00:08:52,799 airlines, the trucks all are being more expensive to bring things from one place 102 00:08:52,799 --> 00:08:56,120 to another. So by the time it hits your shelves in the grocery store, 103 00:08:56,759 --> 00:09:05,320 the prices continue to go higher. That's inflation. The only good part 104 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:11,960 of this inflation is that interest rates are finally at a point that retired people, 105 00:09:11,039 --> 00:09:15,000 people that have cash don't have to take a huge amount of risk to 106 00:09:15,039 --> 00:09:20,360 get over five percent. It's the only good thing. But all those people 107 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,399 that you know really don't care about the economy, don't care about it. 108 00:09:24,399 --> 00:09:31,639 You know what you're suffering too. You can't get five percent because you don't 109 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,919 have money to put away, so everything's costing more. So what do you 110 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:43,840 do You want more wages? You think you deserve more, well, some 111 00:09:43,879 --> 00:09:50,799 people do. But these union strikes, whether it's teachers union, United auto 112 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:56,440 workers union, airlines, unions, you name it, all it does is 113 00:09:56,519 --> 00:10:01,919 hurt the economy. And then when that doesn't happen, the government union of 114 00:10:01,039 --> 00:10:07,600 saying we need to raise minimum wages so everyone can have a fair wage. 115 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,000 It's just tax the rich to be able to pay for all this. You're 116 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,159 a fair share, remember, except when it comes to his son. He 117 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:24,200 doesn't really have to pay his fair share. We don't realize, and maybe 118 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:30,200 now you will, because I'd love for you to go back to my eight 119 00:10:30,399 --> 00:10:35,000 ten. Even more than that shows when I kept talking about minimum wage going 120 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:41,080 up in all these fast food places, it will put an inflation that we 121 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,159 spin on everything, and we're not going to be able to hand it because 122 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,879 the prices will be too high. McDonald's will be too high, fast food 123 00:10:46,879 --> 00:10:50,519 places will be too high. Everything will be too high. That's what inflation 124 00:10:50,600 --> 00:11:01,840 does. We now see credit card balances in the trillions. We see savings 125 00:11:01,879 --> 00:11:11,039 getting depleted across the board. We see the workforce sort of low, which 126 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:16,879 is the only reason certain people that actually earn it will get more money because 127 00:11:16,879 --> 00:11:20,039 it's so hard to find good employees today. You talk to almost anyone that 128 00:11:20,159 --> 00:11:26,440 owns a small firm, small company, medium sized content company. It's very 129 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:35,159 difficult to find employees that are good and so also with the mind friend that 130 00:11:35,159 --> 00:11:39,720 they'll stick around. One thing that people don't realize is the cost of training. 131 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:46,639 You bring somebody in, you spend all the money on training them. 132 00:11:46,799 --> 00:11:50,159 Your father gets up to snuff a year and a half, two years, 133 00:11:50,159 --> 00:11:54,480 maybe three years later, depending on the business, and then he thinks he 134 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:58,720 has knows it all and wants more money and leaves, and you got to 135 00:11:58,759 --> 00:12:01,759 do it over and over again. Now, big corporations, they absorb it. 136 00:12:01,759 --> 00:12:09,440 It is absolutely part of their business plan, always training, always filling 137 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,799 in, always hiring, because people leaving. On the other side, smaller 138 00:12:13,879 --> 00:12:18,960 medium businesses, hell no, that costs them a lot of money. Restaurant 139 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:26,039 turnover costs them a lot of money. Extreme amount. Training is very very 140 00:12:26,159 --> 00:12:31,519 expensive. So let's now move on to what everybody wants its benefits. They 141 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:37,600 want their health benefit, they want vision benefit. They they they want country 142 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:43,519 club benefits. They want you name the benefits. They want it that costs 143 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:50,039 money, especially when people become retired and everything. It costs money to the 144 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:54,000 corporation. It's just not about your wage. Now you're going to increase your 145 00:12:54,000 --> 00:13:03,320 wages, that's a cost. The benefits all go up, the profit sharing, 146 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:09,440 their four one K match, all that stuff goes up. And all 147 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:13,440 you hear is during good times, the CEOs and make it too much money. 148 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,759 The top managements make it too much money. This is corporate greed. 149 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:24,120 You hear this out of Bernie Sanders all the time. But yet it's okay 150 00:13:24,159 --> 00:13:31,039 for him to make millions of dollars in the Senate and doesn't even work except 151 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:35,759 for what he does. How's he even worth millions tens of millions of dollars, 152 00:13:35,639 --> 00:13:41,799 Bernie Sanders, the hypocrisy on greed and the spoons out of their mouth 153 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:50,840 is horrible. There should be no reason why if you work hard, put 154 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:54,519 yourself in position, and move up the ladders, that you can't get paid 155 00:13:54,519 --> 00:14:01,799 the money that someone's willing to pay you. If you walk work for Ford, 156 00:14:01,919 --> 00:14:05,360 and you work your way in and the board of directors and everybody else 157 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:11,799 says you're gonna be my CEO or GM and you're making nine ten twenty thirty 158 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:16,039 forty million dollars. Whatever it is, and believe me, it's tied in 159 00:14:16,639 --> 00:14:20,840 to success most of it. How well is the company doing, how well 160 00:14:20,879 --> 00:14:24,200 are the profits doing? How well's going up? And for everyone, the 161 00:14:24,279 --> 00:14:31,320 media and the White House and corporate greed. Meanwhile, they take care of 162 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:35,440 maternity leaves, they take care of sick pay, they take care of long 163 00:14:35,559 --> 00:14:39,399 term care, they take care of short term care, they take care of 164 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:41,720 medical care. They give you a profit care, and they give you bonuses. 165 00:14:41,759 --> 00:14:46,080 They give you the things that you get. What they don't do is 166 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:50,080 give you more money other than what scale you're in. It's the way they're 167 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:54,200 able to do it. If you don't like it, don't work for a 168 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,919 corporation. You want more money in your pocket because you think you know what 169 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:01,039 you can do, do it. You're not gonna get benefits. You're not 170 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,960 Many people don't have four one K plans, which means they're not all they 171 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:11,159 do and they're not matching small companies or healthcare. I keep running into people 172 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,240 that there's no healthcare. They're working for more small companies. So you get 173 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:18,879 a few extra bucks, the chances are you aren't saving the money you are 174 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,799 in having healthcare, you're not doing any of those things. If you're barely 175 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,720 getting buy and you need extra money, that's what happens. So then when 176 00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:31,679 you stick these ordered workers and give them more money, not just ten or 177 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:37,320 twenty percent rays, but they want forty percent rays and they want to work 178 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:41,960 four days a week and get same same pay and that work forty hours. 179 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:50,200 That, in my book, is ridiculous. You want to work less, 180 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:54,159 get paid less. You want to be a millionaire, save your money and 181 00:15:54,159 --> 00:16:03,480 don't outspend it. Let the compounding raise your money. Teach that. Teach 182 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:10,399 that to people. That's why I think that profits that the foe on K 183 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:17,240 plans should not allow you to take out money. People use that as a 184 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,600 savings account and use it to pay off things, and then they pay the 185 00:16:21,639 --> 00:16:27,039 penalties and they pay those things because that's the one place they saved. It 186 00:16:27,039 --> 00:16:33,440 should only be for hardships, period hardships, medical hardships. Maybe even buying 187 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:40,279 a household is okay with me, but not just taking out loans, because 188 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,840 to pay off your credit cards, that's the adverse of what you want to 189 00:16:44,879 --> 00:16:55,559 do. And I'm watching what's going on everywhere, and instead of helping the 190 00:16:55,639 --> 00:17:02,399 middle class and the lower middle class and the people in the poverty and getting 191 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:06,599 them to come up to the upper playing field. We continue to throw money 192 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,720 down to the lower playing field and tell you what'll take care of you. 193 00:17:11,039 --> 00:17:14,359 Here's checks. You're right. You don't have to pay for school, you 194 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,440 don't have to pay your school loans back, you don't have to pay medical 195 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:18,880 bills, you don't have to pay any of those stuff. And by the 196 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:26,480 way, we'll give you assistance too. If we're giving assistance to able bodied 197 00:17:26,519 --> 00:17:30,319 people, they need to be going through a job training type of deal and 198 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:37,480 get a job. Put the money towards that. Help the mid and small 199 00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:44,839 companies find good employees because they're trained giving sentives to people to do stuff. 200 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:49,640 Change the immigration system. Our boarder is out of control. And I know 201 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,119 it's out of control now, not only because you're down here and you see 202 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:59,000 it and stuff. It's because you're listening to all these Democratic states complain on 203 00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:07,039 how they can't afford ten thousand people in their neighborhoods. New York's going berserk. 204 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:08,960 They can't afford it, Well, why are we supposed to afford it? 205 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,440 And the White House launches on and does nothing but somehow they get money 206 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:21,319 to those states. Use the COVID money. You haven't used that. You 207 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:26,039 got all that extra money New Jersey, Connecticut, New York, California, 208 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,599 and then they spend it on things to give away for votes. That constantly 209 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:36,559 a buying votes, constantly buying votes. Run America like a corporation. Run 210 00:18:36,559 --> 00:18:40,920 it like a business. Let's get a profit. Will be so strong and 211 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:52,000 so stable, people would be happy. You know, growing up, you 212 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:59,119 had a home, your parents worked, they had dinner, they had that 213 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:04,240 they were able to come over. I had no idea, you know, 214 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,559 which was you know, you're growing up a long island in Levittown. We 215 00:19:07,599 --> 00:19:11,559 had a color TV, we had an above ground pool. We were excited. 216 00:19:11,559 --> 00:19:15,680 I had a new baseball mitten. I had a ten speed bike. 217 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,640 I thought that was great. If tears drives started driving up to those that 218 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,920 are in New York, understand this long island, the north Shore, and 219 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,480 you see old money, the great Necks, the sands points, the man 220 00:19:30,559 --> 00:19:36,799 hassets. That was money, all gated things. You never even know anyone 221 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:44,720 up there. That was a whole different world. But I never never looked 222 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,839 out and go, wow, I'm poor. They I should have some of 223 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:55,400 their money. That's not fair that they have the money. No. First 224 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:59,039 one in my car, my whole family to go to college. My parents 225 00:19:59,079 --> 00:20:04,400 made sure they saved money to put to pay for my tuition. I had 226 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,319 to pay room and board, I had to get out loans. I had 227 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:08,480 to work, I had to play sports. I had to do all that 228 00:20:08,519 --> 00:20:15,240 stuff. There was no work ethic that was instilled in me. Maybe it 229 00:20:15,319 --> 00:20:18,079 was from the paper out or mowing the lawns, a shoveling the snow. 230 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,680 But we always had some money to do some things we wanted to do. 231 00:20:23,039 --> 00:20:26,759 We wanted to go roll the skating with your friends. Oh, I had 232 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,599 a couple of bucks. I was able to go to the movies. Whatever 233 00:20:29,599 --> 00:20:37,160 it was. My hand was never out. People don't understand this anymore. 234 00:20:37,519 --> 00:20:41,079 And then when you did, you saved it. This is the amount of 235 00:20:41,079 --> 00:20:45,000 money. You pay your bills, you put it in your vacation fund, 236 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,839 you put it in your education fund, and you don't overspend. What we 237 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:56,119 have done to the American person from by today pay later. It's ridiculous. 238 00:20:57,279 --> 00:21:00,279 They think there's no interest, so it's great. You don't think the price 239 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:06,000 is higher with the interests included. And then you buy today yourselves all so 240 00:21:06,039 --> 00:21:08,039 it's thirty bucks a month. Then you buy something else fifty bucks a month. 241 00:21:08,079 --> 00:21:11,440 Oh, I need that one hundred and fifty bucks. Before you know 242 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:12,880 it, it's five hundred dollars a month that you should be putting away. 243 00:21:14,039 --> 00:21:17,119 And you keep buying stuff and for the next few years you got that payment. 244 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,799 You never get ahead of the game. And then if you do get 245 00:21:19,839 --> 00:21:25,160 ahead of the game, the money that goes away, the money that pleas 246 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,400 put away. And now you get a raise. Now you get a raise. 247 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,960 You know what people do, They spend it. Take half of that 248 00:21:32,039 --> 00:21:34,359 money that you get as a raise and put it until you fill up your 249 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:41,119 four in one K plan. Maximize your retirement stuff. So when you get 250 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,079 to the age and you're only going to get twenty five fifteen hundred and three 251 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,880 thousand dollars and you have nothing else. You're not only getting social Security, 252 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:55,960 you're getting other money sent to you. Don't be that person, and if 253 00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:00,039 you are, make sure you teach your young ones not to be. Education 254 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:04,160 is the most important thing. Just because you start off with nothing doesn't mean 255 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:10,720 you can't be self sustained. And that's what's going on with our country right 256 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,680 now we should be self sustaining energy. We should be exporting oil, not 257 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:22,079 importing oil. We should be the king up deciding what prices. Do you 258 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,720 know that our reserves it is down to one of the lowest levels it's ever 259 00:22:25,759 --> 00:22:30,400 been ever, three hundred and twelve million barrels, I think they said, 260 00:22:30,799 --> 00:22:33,519 is what we have now? Three hundred and twelve billion. We were all 261 00:22:33,519 --> 00:22:37,079 like, up at nine hundred, he's been draining, draining, draining, 262 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,359 draining, draining, And what happened to buy him back when we were at 263 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:45,079 seventy seventy one? Did they lie to us? But not one media person 264 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:51,440 would check that out, not one. If God forbid, there was a 265 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:56,480 world problem and we had to sustain ourselves, how are we going to get 266 00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,160 our oil up and running quick enough to do what we need to do for 267 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:07,599 ourselves and allies? Remember, when people are starving and need they will take 268 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,079 it from anyone they want. That's how people get in trouble. When someone 269 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,920 needs money and they don't have any, they go to loan sharks. And 270 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:19,240 what does that do? It spiles You're into problems and real problems and going 271 00:23:19,279 --> 00:23:25,319 down the drain you usually never get out of. Oh it's temporary existence that 272 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,920 no, it's not so right now we're all markets. So I'm gonna talk 273 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,680 a lot more about it in the next hour and a half. There's vulnerability 274 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,160 between now and a year and a half. How far down I don't know. 275 00:23:40,079 --> 00:23:41,039 And every time if you say that, next thing, you know, 276 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,480 something happens. They go high. Yes they reserved, if they resolved the 277 00:23:45,799 --> 00:23:49,799 uaw the track, you can go up. Interest rates stop going up. 278 00:23:51,039 --> 00:23:52,480 The markets can go up. There could be a lot of things that cause 279 00:23:52,519 --> 00:23:56,680 it go up. But once it runs out of steam because we don't have 280 00:23:56,799 --> 00:24:02,920 enough money to keep putting new money in, because we're in a quantitative tightening, 281 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:07,519 not easing situation that's there. And when they were lower rates, they 282 00:24:07,559 --> 00:24:11,079 start lowering rates, which everyone is expecting. It sometimes gets what's gonna happen? 283 00:24:11,559 --> 00:24:14,680 That means we are falling off the cliff. And when we're in a 284 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,119 recession, we'll be back. I can't tell you how much I appreciate that 285 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:22,359 you guys listen and call and come see us, and those of who do 286 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,359 business with us, that's fantastic. We'll be right back. It is the 287 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:45,400 money Matty Show say. It's all a welcome back. Everybody Sunday Morning Money 288 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,279 Matty Show, Dave, Dylan Todd, and myself. Dam We'll talk to 289 00:24:49,279 --> 00:24:52,799 you for the next hour and a half. We'll talk a lot about the 290 00:24:52,839 --> 00:24:55,559 markets. Obviously, this week was not good. Last week was not good. 291 00:24:55,559 --> 00:24:59,400 September it is not good. It's weird how this happens. You know, 292 00:24:59,519 --> 00:25:04,039 it's not It's not always that way, but most times when the market's 293 00:25:04,039 --> 00:25:07,240 full it's August, September, October, yeah it is, but they usually 294 00:25:07,279 --> 00:25:11,079 set up a good buying opportunity to the end of the year when this happens. 295 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,000 Can't say it's gonna happen. It not happen, but it's kind of 296 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,920 getting stretched again. The only news that was out there interest rates are gonna 297 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,720 stay higher for longer. We know that. Don't you find it interesting that 298 00:25:23,759 --> 00:25:27,559 the market appears shocked at that. We've been talking about that for a week 299 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:32,319 on the show, that interest rates are going to go higher. They're gonna 300 00:25:32,319 --> 00:25:36,359 stay higher longer. The thing when Powell said that he's not going to raise 301 00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,200 rates, but more rate hikes are coming, I thought, yeah, that's 302 00:25:38,319 --> 00:25:42,000 I know, and everybody went, but here's the thing he's saying that to 303 00:25:42,079 --> 00:25:45,240 keep the door open. I wish he would say right now, we don't 304 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,519 want to raise rates. We want to see what's happening. We see we 305 00:25:48,559 --> 00:25:51,319 see it on both sides. We see some months that we have inflation going 306 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:55,000 down, but on the other side we see some the unemployment numbers. If 307 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,519 we have to raise rates, we're going to do it. The one thing 308 00:25:56,559 --> 00:25:59,839 I can say to you, though, is we'll probably not going to be 309 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,119 own rates for a while. Golden's acts pretty good firm, right, yeah, 310 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,680 mindy Goldman SACS. As the Feds done raising rates period, Yeah, 311 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,440 done raising rates, Golden SACS. Now, I'm guessing their theory is that 312 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:18,119 the market or the economy is going to continue to slow, but at a 313 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,359 faster pace. That's what the FED wants. The FED wants, the Fed 314 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,720 likes the way the economy is slowing, because it is slowing, but they'd 315 00:26:25,759 --> 00:26:29,440 like it to slow at a faster pace. But even with its slowing, 316 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,119 we still have a positive GDP number, no question. In fact, wasn't 317 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,359 it the Fed that raised it from one point one to two point one exactly? 318 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:40,240 And their initial reading was so interesting when the dot plots came out, 319 00:26:40,279 --> 00:26:44,400 and what their expectations were because initially the market did not react on the sell 320 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:45,440 off. It was kind of holding in there, and then all of a 321 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,920 sudden, in the middle of Jerome's press conference, you just see this this 322 00:26:51,039 --> 00:26:53,200 sell off occur. And I don't know if there was a certain question that 323 00:26:53,279 --> 00:26:57,880 spooke to Martin's markets, but it seemed like Powell was not as consistent with 324 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,319 all of this other fed met members on the dot plots. It seems like 325 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,240 he is a little more hawkish than what the dot plots were showing. That 326 00:27:04,279 --> 00:27:07,799 was a little surprising to the market. Friday, it was kind of interesting 327 00:27:07,839 --> 00:27:11,200 after a very weak Thursday. Of course, it started on Wednesday, Dean 328 00:27:11,599 --> 00:27:15,279 Thursday got was the worst day of the week, and then Friday the market 329 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,160 opens up higher and actually starts to gain some momentum. And we know from 330 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:23,359 doing this for a long time that you don't have a huge down day followed 331 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:27,440 by an up opening that holds it just it just doesn't well, yeah, 332 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,160 two down days in a row. Yeah, but you don't have a big 333 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,319 down day like Thursday and then have Friday or the market opens up in a 334 00:27:33,319 --> 00:27:36,880 way we'll go to the upside. That just doesn't happen. Yeah, more 335 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,039 often than not, it'll open up and then it'll be a sell off, 336 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,240 especially going into a weekend. Two and it took a whole day until the 337 00:27:41,319 --> 00:27:44,680 end of the day on Friday, and finally at the end of the day 338 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,200 the down one hundred sp downtown exactly. Yeah, Hey, another reason too 339 00:27:48,279 --> 00:27:52,359 Coldman Sachs might be saying that the FED might be done raising races because they 340 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,680 came out an interesting thing about credit card debt issues with these credit card companies 341 00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,240 seeing the highest rate, the racking up the highest losses at the fast pace 342 00:28:00,279 --> 00:28:03,680 in almost thirty years, which means they're having more people be delinquent on their 343 00:28:03,759 --> 00:28:07,480 monthly payments. And these pm we're still seeing credit car already increases. There 344 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,200 are the debt. It's over a trillion dollars for the first time ever. 345 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,279 They're seeing this go up from three point three percent or three point six percent. 346 00:28:15,279 --> 00:28:18,279 They don't see it stopping until about five percent of delinquent payments. So 347 00:28:18,319 --> 00:28:22,119 people are still racking up debt, so they're gonna have to stop paying, 348 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,640 which might slow the economy down in itself event eventually run out of credit the 349 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:27,799 buying power rate well, exactly, and that's what they're saying. That's probably 350 00:28:27,839 --> 00:28:30,279 where they're getting that idea from that they're going to be done raising rates because 351 00:28:30,279 --> 00:28:33,440 all these people have this credit card debt that eventually they can't go buy new 352 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,640 things. They got to pay this off before they can do anything, or 353 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:37,599 they just don't and they have no money, they go broke. Well, 354 00:28:37,599 --> 00:28:41,799 it's also another problem, okay, and he knows that when we happened in 355 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:47,640 the spring, right, you raise rates, you're creating problems for banks when 356 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:51,200 you raise them too fast because their loans on the books are not going up 357 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,240 that fast. Two expenses are going up. They can't not one that whatever 358 00:28:53,279 --> 00:28:57,039 money they're bringing in to give out loans, they have to pay more money 359 00:28:57,039 --> 00:29:00,400 for it. It's a real problem. A big bank you can spread the 360 00:29:00,519 --> 00:29:07,000 risk medium size, which is what happened, and lower and smaller banks problems 361 00:29:07,079 --> 00:29:10,400 all you just don't end up giving out any loans. And to that point, 362 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:15,000 the FED has been increasing rates at a very fast pace. And the 363 00:29:15,119 --> 00:29:18,440 idea is there's a lack to the impacts that are actually going to be felt 364 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:22,160 on the economy that they're finally going to hit the economy. Oxford Economics pretty 365 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:26,000 good firm. They're not a firm, but it's a school of thought. 366 00:29:26,079 --> 00:29:29,400 Right, the maximum impact of the fed's tightening, they say, is going 367 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,440 to be felt over the next couple of quarters, the quarter four of twenty 368 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,960 three, quarter one of twenty four, and so that's something to look at 369 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:41,079 two where we might actually see some as Goldman Sachs as actual increase of decreasing 370 00:29:41,119 --> 00:29:45,400 of the economy growth. One of the things I do, as just a 371 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,319 matter of course, is when I talk to a businessman, a self employed 372 00:29:49,359 --> 00:29:55,440 person, I'll always ask him how's business. It's just carried how's business? 373 00:29:55,480 --> 00:30:02,279 And I'm hearing across the board business is great. Skill from from general contractors 374 00:30:02,319 --> 00:30:06,000 it was in our office today, to a buddy of mine that does specialized 375 00:30:06,039 --> 00:30:11,960 concrete products, to a restaurant tour I talked to last week. Everyone says 376 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,160 business is FED. Does not want to hear that. Yeah, FED does 377 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,119 not want to hear the business is good and the GDP is going from one 378 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,559 point one to two point one. Well, it depends what business too. 379 00:30:21,559 --> 00:30:25,039 I mean, technology has been selling has been laying off people. Right, 380 00:30:26,359 --> 00:30:29,640 you start seeing more people. The one thing I've been hearing from people their 381 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,000 own businesses, they're not hiring. They might not be laying off people yet, 382 00:30:33,039 --> 00:30:37,799 but they're not hiring, and they don't force sea hiring in the near 383 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:42,920 future. And that's because they realize that they can see a slowdown possibly coming 384 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,200 and they don't want to be stuck paying more salaries and training and do all 385 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,839 that stuff unless they need to. I'm absolutely hearing that exact thing. We're 386 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:57,160 not seeing the help wanted signs on every single building anymore. Yeah, I 387 00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:02,079 mean, the vacancies are definitely arrowed, but there is still more job postings 388 00:31:02,079 --> 00:31:06,000 than their art labors. And I'm also hearing from from friends who are working 389 00:31:06,079 --> 00:31:08,720 that they're doing the job of two or three people, you know, so 390 00:31:10,119 --> 00:31:11,839 we have to because you give them more money out Wages have gone up. 391 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,920 Yes, you're gonna expect more from people. It's amazing how much more people 392 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,599 can do that want to work. No, it's gonna be interesting is if 393 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,960 California passes that law with raising minimum ways of twenty dollars for the fast food 394 00:31:23,039 --> 00:31:26,519 chains, if they start laying off a bunch of employees and just go with 395 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,359 robots or just do it automated and have one employee, if that's going to 396 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:34,720 increase the unemployment a lot. Well, and McDonald's was down last week because 397 00:31:34,759 --> 00:31:40,039 of that dealing you, the California State Senate passed a bill to raise the 398 00:31:40,079 --> 00:31:42,880 minimum waste to twenty bucks an hour for fast food workers. I remember he's 399 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,759 kidding talking. Yeah, I know, he just explaining it, Yeah exactly. 400 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,400 I'm just giving details, yeah exactly, And we talked about it last 401 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,359 week. But yeah, those are the details of it. And that's why 402 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,440 if they start firing employees because I just can't afford twenty alls an hour for 403 00:31:53,519 --> 00:31:57,319 ten employees. Instead, they'll have three and use machines to just cook the 404 00:31:57,519 --> 00:32:01,200 food, and they oversee the machines, that's going to increase unemployment. One 405 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,119 of my clients just got back from a trip to England and they said they 406 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,920 were in a McDonald's in London and there were the placeless packed. They said 407 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:13,839 there were four employees, Three were cooking food, one was calling out numbers. 408 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,880 You wanted food, get to the kiosk. And then and Dylan to 409 00:32:17,039 --> 00:32:21,680 that point as well. Indeed, came out with report last week that says 410 00:32:21,839 --> 00:32:24,440 the higher the odds are that a job can be done remotely, the greater 411 00:32:24,559 --> 00:32:30,000 its potential exposure to JENI driven change. So for these people that are working 412 00:32:30,119 --> 00:32:34,480 from home. Those jobs are easily able to be replaced through AI, and 413 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,200 so that could be another increase of unemployment rate, is if those people are 414 00:32:38,359 --> 00:32:43,440 replaced with just AI. Well, wait, we know from Dean that the 415 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,680 wage inflation is extremely stubborn. Dean, you talked about this a year ago, 416 00:32:47,359 --> 00:32:52,480 that wage inflation is extremely stubborn. Automation is one of the things that 417 00:32:52,559 --> 00:32:57,680 can help break that break that cycle. October six is the next Labor report, 418 00:32:57,759 --> 00:32:59,880 and that's gonna be a real big dot, a point for the Fed 419 00:33:00,119 --> 00:33:02,720 to see where we are currently. And then Friday is coming. Friday, 420 00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:07,720 we have the PC report, the inflation, a couple of big reports. 421 00:33:07,799 --> 00:33:09,759 I mean, I'll just give you the perspective from an owner of a firm 422 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:16,039 right and different businesses I own. If you feel there's a slow down coming, 423 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:21,400 you see that you're going to slow down your revenues, You're not apt 424 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,039 to step up and be giving wages, increases and bonuses right now because you 425 00:33:24,079 --> 00:33:28,079 feel like you have to keep the cash because you've gone through it before, 426 00:33:28,839 --> 00:33:30,680 you know. But when things that you're having a good year, and this 427 00:33:30,799 --> 00:33:36,079 is happening across America, everyone expects more money and if they don't get the 428 00:33:36,079 --> 00:33:38,079 money. They're getting upset. But boy, when things go down, they 429 00:33:38,119 --> 00:33:42,480 don't expect to get less money. Yeah, and that's where that's where the 430 00:33:42,599 --> 00:33:45,880 problem is. And you know, and that's why you always have that split 431 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:51,160 between management and and and and workers. You know. Speaking of which Ford, 432 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,000 uh you saw it probably saw on Friday, the UAW is going to 433 00:33:54,039 --> 00:33:59,960 expand their strikes against GM and Stillantis, which is I guess Dodge Nowler, 434 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:05,599 Yeah, that could go, but not Ford. Ford is, according to 435 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,639 the president of the UAW, Ford is serious about coming to an agreement. 436 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:14,519 They're not going to strike the F one fifty plant, which was which was 437 00:34:14,599 --> 00:34:17,760 one of the big concerns. That's their big money maker. So we'll see. 438 00:34:19,119 --> 00:34:22,719 And what they're using, the UAW president's using what Ford is saying yes 439 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,440 to against GM and Silantis, saying Ford is doing this. You guys got 440 00:34:27,519 --> 00:34:30,760 to do this, and until you do, we're gonna keep increasing our strikes. 441 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,800 And that's why they're going to thirty eight more plants or thirty eight more 442 00:34:34,039 --> 00:34:37,360 parts and distribution locations, which isn't where they assemble the actual car, so 443 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:42,679 that's not gonna be hurt. What this is gonna hurt is your repair time. 444 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,800 If like the dealerships can't get the repair the parts where this comes from, 445 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,960 that's what's gonna start taking longer. So it's gonna hit people rather than 446 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,880 just get a new car assembled, it's gonna hurt people who are trying to 447 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,519 get their car repaired and the dealerships in towns in different across the country. 448 00:34:55,679 --> 00:35:01,559 Interestingly, Ford has the most UAW workers, the most union workers. You 449 00:35:01,599 --> 00:35:05,880 know, people don't remember getting it. Was it not long ago. GM. 450 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:10,840 When bankrupt, you can do they can agree to all this stuff. 451 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:15,800 The problem is it's none of the top management that will agree to it. 452 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:20,079 If the company goes bankrupt, gets hurt, we get a bill out of 453 00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,320 tax people because we can't let the auto industry go down, you know, 454 00:35:23,679 --> 00:35:30,880 and it constantly, constantly people want but don't realize how it affects everybody else. 455 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,079 Like I said, when it's good, they want more, and when 456 00:35:32,119 --> 00:35:35,760 he's bad, they don't want to give it back. Yeah, So that's 457 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,599 why wage inflation is so sticky. It's just it's hard to give somebody. 458 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:42,920 It's easy to give a raid, hard to give a cut and pay and 459 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,119 pay a little hard once way just all going up. You know, inflation 460 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:49,079 is not going to really come down. All right, we'll be right back. 461 00:35:49,199 --> 00:35:52,360 We appreciate your listening. This is the Money Matter Show every Sunday morning, 462 00:35:52,559 --> 00:36:02,480 right here on seven ninety Kandasy say it's all a name. We'll back 463 00:36:02,559 --> 00:36:07,320 gets the Money by the shelf, Dean, Dylan, Todd and Dave. 464 00:36:07,559 --> 00:36:13,320 We have three d's in that you realized dd we have to change Todd's name. 465 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,239 For those just tuning in, we've been DDT is actually a really cool 466 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:20,679 wrestling move, so maybe it was just DDC. Yeah, it's also a 467 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:28,360 sexicide. Okay, M cool. Well thirty we're going on thirty four years 468 00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,079 safe, thirty four years be thirty four years doing the show. Wow, 469 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:37,039 that's amazing. That's amazing, and I'm not bored of it. Yeah, 470 00:36:37,159 --> 00:36:40,800 no, never to talk about every week. That's what makes this job so 471 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:45,480 fun is every week's different. Every week is totally different than the week before, 472 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:49,480 always going to be a more. The line's gonna keep drawing. Yeah, 473 00:36:49,599 --> 00:36:51,880 that's it's nice. It's crazy. I mean, it's it's not like 474 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,199 the government. You know the government has one topic, right, COVID one 475 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,440 one, only one thing they can talk about. Did you see where the 476 00:36:59,599 --> 00:37:04,880 cd SEE is recommending vaccines for everyone age six months and up. Yeah, 477 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,159 And I'm sitting there going, are you serious? Six Yeah, I'm gonna 478 00:37:07,159 --> 00:37:10,760 give my nine month old a COVID vaccine. I don't think you're gonna give 479 00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:15,400 yourself a COVID vaccine. Yeah. I cannot believe they're even talking about it 480 00:37:15,519 --> 00:37:20,320 right now. Fiser is expecting a twenty four percent vaccination rate. Flu shots 481 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,400 are typically fifty percent percent of people get a flu shot. The government's not 482 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:27,360 paying for them anymore, though, so that's kind of innesting. Here's here's 483 00:37:27,599 --> 00:37:30,559 this blew me away. The last week Biden, I saw, I saw 484 00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:32,599 a home Oh no, COVID tests, not COVID Okay, okay, So 485 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:37,239 this is after where I'm going Dan. Last last week, Biden said that 486 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:42,719 starting next week, you'll be able to get up to four free home testing 487 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:47,360 kits from the government. We stopped that program in January of twenty twenty two, 488 00:37:49,199 --> 00:37:52,880 almost two years ago. Now we're gonna crank it back up again. 489 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,800 Bring on the mask, let's go. What's coming up next year? Good? 490 00:37:55,960 --> 00:38:00,679 Great? Yeah, good point, doing good point man. Gearing up 491 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:06,679 the freaking everything for COVID against I'm in talk about inflation though, I mean, 492 00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,239 that's not gonna help those Those tests aren't free. Someone's gonna have to 493 00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,800 pay for that. Oh yeah, sure, Yeah, we don't have any 494 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,559 problems with the money though. At the federal government levels, we'll got plenty 495 00:38:15,599 --> 00:38:19,599 of money. Well not apparently, because there's that looming government shutdown, right, 496 00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,119 that's gonna they're gonna. I think they're gonna shut down absolutely because it 497 00:38:22,159 --> 00:38:25,880 doesn't affect us paying the bills, but it makes it. It makes us 498 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:30,639 stand saying guys, this is ridiculous. The board is ridiculous. The way 499 00:38:30,639 --> 00:38:32,559 you're spending money is ridiculous. And we're not going to go ahead and give 500 00:38:32,599 --> 00:38:36,639 you what you need. And then do you know what the west part of 501 00:38:36,679 --> 00:38:42,760 the shutdown is. They don't lose money. The money's just deferred. You 502 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,039 don't get paid while it's on, right, but they give you they make 503 00:38:45,119 --> 00:38:47,599 up the money down the road. Correct. Now. I just want to 504 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:52,440 are you able to go on government assistance while the government shut down get paid 505 00:38:52,519 --> 00:38:57,360 late dividends from the millions of dollars they're making the stock market. Yeah, 506 00:38:57,559 --> 00:39:00,880 but it's a concern for federal employees, you know, and and other you 507 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,639 know you can not. We always talk about the fact that a lot of 508 00:39:02,639 --> 00:39:06,960 Americans don't have five hundred two thousand dollars saved up if they needed to make 509 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,760 a bill or a payments. If you don't have your income for a week 510 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,840 or two weeks, that could be drastic for certain individuals, will be huge. 511 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:15,320 And then and then they'll come up with some way of fronting on the 512 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:21,119 money or something like that. It's not fair in reality. Just it's not 513 00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,880 fair to the federal employees that they don't even have a choice or whether or 514 00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,480 not they should shut down. Right, but you know who should not get 515 00:39:27,519 --> 00:39:32,960 paid? Right? Congo should never get paid if they can't balance the budget. 516 00:39:34,199 --> 00:39:36,639 No, it's job, Yeah, it's their job. Imagine if you're 517 00:39:36,679 --> 00:39:39,559 the CEO of a company and every year you in and year out you lost 518 00:39:39,599 --> 00:39:43,440 money, you'd be fired be fight so quickly, I thok, you paid 519 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,519 for doing absolutely nothing except fighting with each other. Or are they trying to 520 00:39:46,519 --> 00:39:49,679 get their job again for the next that's all they do, that's all the 521 00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:51,840 five for one year. Then they try to get their job again for another 522 00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:52,960 year. And it's just a cycle that they do for eighty years. Because 523 00:39:52,960 --> 00:40:00,119 there's no term limits, impeachment inquiries, and just an endless nonsense. But 524 00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:05,000 people should know that we've had twenty government shutdown since nineteen seventy six. The 525 00:40:05,079 --> 00:40:07,639 average return for the SMP five hundred and the average shutdown last eight days. 526 00:40:07,679 --> 00:40:12,199 By the way, the average return for the SP five hundred is exactly zero 527 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,960 percent. So there is no impact on stocks from a government shutdown. And 528 00:40:15,079 --> 00:40:17,880 it goes down for US and then comes back up and it's flat. And 529 00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,360 I think this is really important to social security checks and government bond payments, 530 00:40:22,519 --> 00:40:28,760 interest payments not impacted, right, not impacted, the essential services, military, 531 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,800 et cetera, not impacted. Right. So the Dean's right, it's 532 00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,320 it's kind of a it just kind of becomes a game of chicken, and 533 00:40:35,639 --> 00:40:37,880 you're right, Todd, normally a week, you know. Yeah, And 534 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,679 but the social secrity is a good point to bring up because next month, 535 00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:45,480 week, well two months from now, we'll get the September CPI, that's 536 00:40:45,519 --> 00:40:47,800 the CPI that they use for the cola into the next year. I was 537 00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:52,159 reading an article on social security over the week and it was talking about those 538 00:40:52,199 --> 00:40:57,280 two potential solutions, one from a Republican and one for Democrat. The Republicans, 539 00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,760 says they want to raise one point five trillion dollars, put it in 540 00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,440 a new trust fund, which is Social Security. That's where they supplement right 541 00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,760 now. They've got a bunch of trust funds, but those are the ones 542 00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,599 that are going to be depleted by twenty thirty four if Congress doesn't do anything, 543 00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,599 and that's what you always hear on the news. So they're trying to 544 00:41:10,639 --> 00:41:14,800 start a new one. Put it in the stock market like a regular pension 545 00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,760 fund that companies do, and try and get the six seven percent return so 546 00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,920 they can keep up with inflation, more than the current trust funds, which 547 00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:23,800 are only in treasuries, which historically only pay roughly one to two percent. 548 00:41:24,159 --> 00:41:28,079 And that's why they're following behind. So he wants to put it in the 549 00:41:28,159 --> 00:41:30,400 stock market that will come up in his plan is to come up with seventy 550 00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:36,000 percent of the needed extra needed money and then thirty percent they have to figure 551 00:41:36,039 --> 00:41:39,440 something out, is what he said. The Democrat wants to raise taxes shocker. 552 00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:44,159 He wants to increase the Social Security payroll tax for everybody, and then 553 00:41:44,199 --> 00:41:49,280 he also wants to add an additional investment income tax for taxpayers earning over four 554 00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,920 hundred thousand dollars. And this would proposal is not just trying to fix the 555 00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,159 first problem, which is Social Security checks going out. He wants to increase 556 00:41:55,199 --> 00:41:59,920 it by two percent across the board, while also making benefits for more general 557 00:42:00,119 --> 00:42:04,000 for others, including long term beneficiaries, widows, independent children who are students. 558 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,920 So we already have a problem. This guy wants to just keep increasing 559 00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:08,880 taxes and just keep adding other people to it, even though we already have 560 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,440 a problem with the people that are currently getting it swing that it's going to 561 00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,159 deplete and how often it is a solution to get money from the get more 562 00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:19,840 money from the people who are already paid ninety percent of access, right, 563 00:42:20,079 --> 00:42:23,280 Yeah, exactly, it's ridiculous. It is ridiculous. And that's and it's 564 00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:27,079 a whole scare about that. They're if it doesn't come, they're gonna cut 565 00:42:27,119 --> 00:42:30,480 Social Security benefits by twenty percent in the next decade. Okay, so that'll 566 00:42:30,559 --> 00:42:32,719 get them to do something. Good luck with that. And we haven't talked 567 00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:37,039 about I bonds in a while, but that again, that September rate is 568 00:42:37,079 --> 00:42:39,760 going to be a big thing for their new interest rate. That's gonna be 569 00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:46,480 Unfortunately, the social Security. No, the I bonds every six months yet 570 00:42:47,039 --> 00:42:51,199 I haven't checked. All I'm saying is that's that's a big month on that. 571 00:42:51,639 --> 00:42:53,280 Remember that was all the rage, right, well year and a half, 572 00:42:53,559 --> 00:42:58,320 yeah, because unfortunately the government doesn't tell you that it fluctuates with inflation. 573 00:42:58,559 --> 00:43:00,119 Right, So when you thought you bought a nine per sent I bond 574 00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,639 two years ago or last year and you were locked in, you're not locked 575 00:43:04,639 --> 00:43:07,079 in. You change every six months, and when inflation is going down, 576 00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:12,079 your teress race getting You can remember it's the rate of inflation plus or minus 577 00:43:12,199 --> 00:43:15,960 the change this last one. So this time it's going to be three minus 578 00:43:16,119 --> 00:43:22,760 three. That's pretty close to zero exactly, And that's CPI. The CPI 579 00:43:23,199 --> 00:43:28,159 six six months ago was probably six, right, five or six, say 580 00:43:28,199 --> 00:43:31,440 five, So now it's three and a half. So you're gonna get one 581 00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:35,480 and a half. So you're nine now is one and a half? Right. 582 00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:39,679 We warned people not to buy these bonds six months ago, and obviously 583 00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,599 that this is not the time to buy right now. In the ten year 584 00:43:43,639 --> 00:43:46,079 you can get four point four three. Well, and we've got we've got 585 00:43:46,199 --> 00:43:52,400 some some two three four year treasuries and corpus that are well above five. 586 00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:57,519 Had one the other day, a three year bond that was five point eight 587 00:43:57,679 --> 00:44:00,199 on a double A rated. Alright, so we throw all this out. 588 00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,360 We talk about stocks, you're talking about bombs. You do this. You 589 00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:06,920 can't just at hots, just do it. There's a way to do this. 590 00:44:07,119 --> 00:44:08,840 You have to have a plan. We always talk about the plan, 591 00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:15,679 always, more and more and more. Now a plan is so much more 592 00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:20,719 important than the actual investment you're going to make later on, because that investment 593 00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,840 you're gonna make later on, it is all part of the plan and you're 594 00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:28,519 with stolerance, but also the plan. You know, we talk about plan 595 00:44:28,599 --> 00:44:30,639 all the time, and I think we don't spend enough time on something that 596 00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:37,840 is centered around is the goals. Right, The whole plan is centered around 597 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:42,679 your goals, and that's going to be completely different for every single certain individual 598 00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,320 family, depending on their own values, their own vision, and where they 599 00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:52,639 see themselves going forward. So identifying and just describing your savings goals is typically 600 00:44:52,679 --> 00:44:55,199 one of the first steps in the financial planning process. And you'd be surprised. 601 00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:58,800 We have a lot of people come in and they don't really have a 602 00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,039 number in their head how much they want an income in retirement because a lot 603 00:45:02,079 --> 00:45:06,400 of times they don't know. And that's a fair point as well, but 604 00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,559 you should have at least an idea. Do I want the same standard of 605 00:45:08,639 --> 00:45:13,039 living currently when in my retirement, or would I like eighty percent? Or 606 00:45:13,039 --> 00:45:15,440 would do I want to double my standard of living currently in retirement. Those 607 00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:19,880 are goals you need to think about now because they're going to drastically impact what 608 00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,719 decisions need to be made today. Yeah. A big one with that is 609 00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,400 that they keep the same amount of average monthly spending and say it's five thousand 610 00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,280 dollars a month right now while you're working. It tends to stay about five 611 00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,079 thousand dollars a month when you're retired. The only thing that's added to it 612 00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,800 is extra traveling because you've got more time, So your expenses might go up 613 00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:37,679 in retirement, and that's something you want to look at before you jump into 614 00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:42,800 retirement and just go by ad hoc like you were saying. But when you're 615 00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:47,039 planning to go into a timement, sure you might reduce your income on what 616 00:45:47,119 --> 00:45:52,079 you're doing and all the way if you don't work at all, but then 617 00:45:52,119 --> 00:45:53,679 you're adding back because you're going to get soci security at one time. But 618 00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:57,320 you have to decide when you're going to take social Security. That's important. 619 00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,079 If you're time at sixty at social security is going to be quite different if 620 00:46:00,119 --> 00:46:04,719 you don't wait to full retirement age or if you wait till seventy dependent. 621 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,079 You have to make up that income difference. Is it going to be from 622 00:46:08,119 --> 00:46:10,920 your investments? What can you plan on the investments where the other money is 623 00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,639 going to come? Now, that's my point, Dean, is it's so 624 00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:17,119 important to actually understand your expenses because I have many people come into the door 625 00:46:17,119 --> 00:46:21,000 and they say I'm spending three thousand dollars and I'm like, okay, well 626 00:46:21,119 --> 00:46:22,679 you have eight thousand coming in the door each month and you're saying you're only 627 00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,239 spending three thousand, So where's the other five thousand going? Are you saving 628 00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:29,599 and investing five thousand dollars per month? And every single time the person says, 629 00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:34,159 no, I guess I am spending more. Right, So actually sit 630 00:46:34,199 --> 00:46:37,599 down and look exactly though exactly make you do that. It's painful because you 631 00:46:37,599 --> 00:46:39,960 don't want to admit it. But once you get it, you put a 632 00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,880 smile on your face. You know what, You put a smile on your 633 00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:45,320 face, because we'll figure out how you're going to get that money, be 634 00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:49,920 able to live on that money, and relieve all the stress and the ups 635 00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,519 and the downs and everything else that goes on. You know what's funny, 636 00:46:52,559 --> 00:46:55,280 The people that do the plan right and kind of say, okay, I'm 637 00:46:55,320 --> 00:47:02,039 going to get the income stream are less stress stout then those that say I 638 00:47:02,159 --> 00:47:06,639 don't need this money and just put it in and invest it because I wanted 639 00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,760 to make more. They're the ones that get so scared when the markets go 640 00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:13,639 down, not the ones that put the plan together, that understand it's gonna 641 00:47:13,639 --> 00:47:15,639 go down, it's gonna go up. But as long as they're getting their 642 00:47:15,639 --> 00:47:19,320 income each time, they're happy. I haven't seen any one of our clients 643 00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,719 come out of the financial planning process with anything but a smile on their faces. 644 00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:24,400 Not one. You guys are doing a great it doesn't always work out 645 00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:29,119 because they expect the market the rally all the time, and it doesn't sure, 646 00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:30,400 you know, and so and then we go from there. All right, 647 00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,480 we'll be right back. We got the hard break coming up. As 648 00:47:34,679 --> 00:47:37,039 I always keep telling you, you guys, listen, is why we do 649 00:47:37,199 --> 00:47:40,320 the show. I wouldn't do it before us a few guys. You we 650 00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:45,079 get a lot of good compliments. You guys, we help you. Helping 651 00:47:45,519 --> 00:47:47,440 is the name of the game. We'll be right back say it's all a 652 00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:54,719 name. Welcome back. Everybody's sicker now with the money by the show. 653 00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:59,199 Remember we just don't hear us. Now you can hear us any time you 654 00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:04,239 want. We we have them all on our website. If you want to 655 00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,760 go back and listen from three weeks ago, five weeks ago, five months 656 00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:12,079 ago, I'm five months on, yeah, five months ago on. Uh, 657 00:48:12,199 --> 00:48:15,320 you go back and listen. It'll tell you what we've been talking about. 658 00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,599 You can fact check us if you want. I'm okay, I'm not 659 00:48:17,679 --> 00:48:22,360 always right, but there's a lot of times we are. You can talk 660 00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:27,159 and hear listen about what we're talking. But we also do an interesting thing 661 00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:34,519 on Saturdays, three to half hour more shows with a host and myself asking 662 00:48:34,639 --> 00:48:37,360 questions, talking about stuff, talking about planning. If you don't catch those, 663 00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:39,280 or you can catch it and you like it, you can listen to 664 00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:45,880 more on the radio also, and we're gonna start back up on KBOA after 665 00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:52,280 the News on Sunday nights with some good, good information too. Yeah, 666 00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,920 those are all more of the holistic financial planning TV shows rather than more current 667 00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:59,440 events like we do with this show. Because we record this one every week, 668 00:48:59,559 --> 00:49:01,320 those are re recorded, so it's more of the whole idea of what 669 00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:06,400 financial planning and investing is with factoids about it. But coming in the second 670 00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:07,599 hour, I know people tune in for the second hour, so we'll go 671 00:49:07,679 --> 00:49:10,480 over what happened last week, which was just another down week. The Dow 672 00:49:10,599 --> 00:49:14,920 was down two percent, the SMP five hundred was down three percent, the 673 00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,199 NASDAC was down three and a half percent, and the Wrestle two thousand was 674 00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:22,079 down almost four percent. Equal weighted SMP five hundred, which we've been watching 675 00:49:22,119 --> 00:49:24,639 closely this year because of the seven stocks I really have been taking off the 676 00:49:24,679 --> 00:49:30,039 SMP five hundred equalated SMP five hundred was down over three percent, so it's 677 00:49:30,039 --> 00:49:32,760 actually down more than the regular SMP. So that's showing that the marker was 678 00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,960 just down as a whole. And I want to spend some time on the 679 00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:39,320 equalated because I found some really interesting stuff about it. Right now, the 680 00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:45,079 valuation gap between the top seven stocks and the SPW, which is the equated, 681 00:49:45,039 --> 00:49:50,760 is the highest level since the tech bubble obviously suggesting more upside two thousand 682 00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:53,679 and one. Since two thousand and one, and that's the top seven stocks 683 00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:59,639 market cap by the median trailing P of the SMP, so the valuation gap 684 00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,360 is never been bigger. Uh these If you take the top six stocks, 685 00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:08,280 they trade at thirty five times trailing twelve months earnings. So if you take 686 00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:12,119 them out of the s and P five hundred, the remaining four hundred and 687 00:50:12,679 --> 00:50:16,320 ninety two stocks, they say trade at seventeen times earning. From that angle, 688 00:50:16,599 --> 00:50:21,440 the market seem, you know, valuable, right, It's like, 689 00:50:21,519 --> 00:50:25,679 Okay, that reality comes back, but just shows that those six stocks change 690 00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:31,559 the game. I mean, it's not even close. And it's very important 691 00:50:31,639 --> 00:50:36,960 to keep in mind that when you see this huge variation, it's likely that 692 00:50:37,039 --> 00:50:40,559 the equal weighted SMP will outperform. And it's so hard to even imagine that 693 00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:44,760 right now because we're just not in that environment. I mean, the top 694 00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:49,920 seven stocks have just killed everything else. To imagine a value stock outperforming a 695 00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,880 mega in the next year, it's very hard. We've got a combination of 696 00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:58,679 value equal weighted SMP five hundred and short term fixed income. You're down for 697 00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:04,159 the year, right you're down for the year as of as of last Friday, 698 00:51:04,199 --> 00:51:07,119 and so picking that today is a hard thing to do, very difficult, 699 00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:12,400 very difficult. I want to talk a little bit about Raytheon near and 700 00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:15,239 dear to our hearts. We've got an awfully a lot of clients who are 701 00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:22,239 Raytheon employees, Raytheon retirees. We love Raytheon in Tucson, Arizona. And 702 00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:28,719 the stock is just getting obliterated hit a three year low. Continues to be 703 00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:35,159 concerns about the Pratt and Whitney engines and the manufacturing defect. We thought originally 704 00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:40,280 that there would it was about a five hundred million dollar problem. Raytheon last 705 00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:46,360 week said they're going to set aside three billion dollars. There are no analysts 706 00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:50,159 who have stepped up at the plate at this point and said, yeah, 707 00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:54,880 you gotta you gotta look at the stock. There's now a class action lawsuit. 708 00:51:55,559 --> 00:51:59,760 This is talk about picky lawyers, right, This is a class action 709 00:52:00,119 --> 00:52:04,760 stood for those people that lost five hundred thousand dollars or more. If you 710 00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:10,119 didn't lose five hundred thousand dollars, don't call I mean talk about they got 711 00:52:10,199 --> 00:52:15,519 so much class action stuff out there that they're narrated down to five hundred thousand 712 00:52:15,519 --> 00:52:20,400 dollars. But I'll look for an analyst to step forward stocks thirty one percent 713 00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,840 off, it's fifty two week high, and we hit that fifty two week 714 00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:28,159 high one month ago. Today still has an average price rating of around ninety 715 00:52:28,199 --> 00:52:30,880 one dollars to share us so well off and the target price of ninety one. 716 00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:35,679 I've been saying. I think we've been saying for a couple of weeks 717 00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:39,760 that maybe there'd be a washout low that would take it below seventy, where 718 00:52:40,519 --> 00:52:45,800 I believe it's awfully attractive. We'll see. I'd like to see some analysts 719 00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:49,239 start to come out of the woodwork and say, yeah, you really got 720 00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:52,159 to be looking at this stock now. Yeah, I mean, it just 721 00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:54,559 keeps reminding us. Like we said last week, it's just bowing. It 722 00:52:54,599 --> 00:52:58,320 reminds us a bowing how it was down in the dumps and just kept going 723 00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,639 down. Nobody wanted it at the time. Prior to its issues. When 724 00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:06,119 the plane crashes the engine, the Max seven thirty seven Max issues, it 725 00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:07,880 was trading in roughly two hundred and thirty two hundred forty dollars to share. 726 00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:12,199 Then you have the two plane crashes. Then you have the seven thirty seven 727 00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,039 Max issues, and those were a lot that lasted a lot longer than people 728 00:53:15,119 --> 00:53:17,360 thought. So the stock went all the way down to under on a hundred 729 00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:21,679 dollars and it was just down and out. Nobody wanted it. And now 730 00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:23,679 look it's back over two twenty or it was for a second. Obviously it's 731 00:53:23,679 --> 00:53:27,599 gone down a little bit, but it's back to where people like it again. 732 00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,039 And that was only two and a half years ago. And the industry 733 00:53:30,119 --> 00:53:32,320 is not going anywhere, no, no, nona be the wars ended. 734 00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:36,679 We just got another three hundred millions getting sent to Ukraine. Well, and 735 00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:38,480 like what you're saying, Pride and Whitney is a subsidiary of the company, 736 00:53:38,519 --> 00:53:42,760 and that's they'd make plane engines. That's not going anywhere, right, you 737 00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,559 know, No, it'd be fine if they will work it out. If 738 00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,559 the question is how long did it take? How much more down? Type 739 00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:51,880 is everybody wants to buy at the bottom, which you're probably not gonna do, 740 00:53:52,639 --> 00:53:55,039 so you just your dollar cost average. Just one of those cases where 741 00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:59,760 you know, if you if you wanted to put a ten thousand dollars to 742 00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:02,760 work, maybe you buy thirty shares on on Monday, and then if it 743 00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:06,880 drops another five bucks, you buy another thirty. For drops another five bucks, 744 00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:08,119 buy another thirty. Yeah. Well it's like what you said right there. 745 00:54:08,119 --> 00:54:12,039 I mean, and using the Bowing example, everybody thought Bowen would come 746 00:54:12,079 --> 00:54:14,800 back a lot quicker, and when it didn't, that's when people didn't want 747 00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:16,719 to buy it anymore. They thought the seven thirty seven max issues gonna last 748 00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:20,679 a month or two. It lasted almost a year. Remember, go ahead, 749 00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:22,519 well I just before we leave the defense area. I thought it was 750 00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:27,719 very fascinating that Zelenski made an appearance in the White House. And if you 751 00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,119 remember last year when he did this, he had a whole standing ovation, 752 00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:34,440 they had a speech, everyone was giving him claps. This time you didn't 753 00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,320 hear a peep, right, And so I think there's a huge kind of 754 00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:42,760 turn there where the Republicans are getting fed up with continuously sending money when we 755 00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:46,119 still have a lot of domestic issues abroad, and no one likes continuing more, 756 00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:50,800 at least if you're pro human right. War is not good for humans, 757 00:54:51,079 --> 00:54:54,880 right, it's terrible, and so continuously sending money instead of continuously sending 758 00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:59,000 peace talks. It's kind of like, whoa what are we doing here? 759 00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,480 Right? Like, stand, we don't like Russia, but also we don't 760 00:55:01,519 --> 00:55:06,239 like death, so how can we come to a conclusion. The other side 761 00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:12,000 of that coin is allowing Russia to take Ukraine is completely unacceptable on anybody's in 762 00:55:12,079 --> 00:55:15,159 anybody's world. So that's that's gotta we gotta do what it has to be 763 00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:19,599 done there. So it's it's interesting. Another stock that has got some news 764 00:55:19,679 --> 00:55:23,519 this week was Tesla Monday morning. The stock is more than double this year 765 00:55:23,559 --> 00:55:28,039 in all fairness, right, but on Monday, Goldman Sachs became the fourth 766 00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:32,119 firm this month to downgrade the stock. They've downgraded to a hold. As 767 00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:37,159 with other downgrades. They remain constructive on the future of the company, but 768 00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:42,280 they believe that these repeated price cuts were seen maybe pointing to a slowing of 769 00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:46,000 demand. And we've talked about this on the show a number of times. 770 00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:52,880 Eventually, we're going to get to a point where everyone who wants and can 771 00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:55,719 afford an electric car has one. However, if you remember last week, 772 00:55:57,039 --> 00:56:00,280 the analysts price rating had nothing to do with cars at everything to do with 773 00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:04,039 their Level three chargers, the level through charging. If that doesn't matter. 774 00:56:04,079 --> 00:56:06,960 That's a good point. That's a good reminder, Todd, thank you that 775 00:56:07,119 --> 00:56:10,000 the charging stations may be worth one hundred billion dollars, so that might make 776 00:56:10,079 --> 00:56:13,880 up for the lack of car cells. Right a little bit, I'm gonna 777 00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,000 switch over to the Evy Garage, right, all right, we'll talk about 778 00:56:16,079 --> 00:56:19,960 on the Evy Garage this weekend. And we've actually had a couple of clients 779 00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:22,719 say they really liked this segments, so we're just gonna do it a little 780 00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,239 bit this We're gonna talk about hybrids this week. We all like the idea 781 00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:30,320 of a hybrid, even Dean likes the idea of a hybrid. But doesn't 782 00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:36,679 that give you the best and the worst of both worlds? For instance, 783 00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:38,159 you can on a hybrid, you can use the electric locally and then when 784 00:56:38,199 --> 00:56:42,639 you go on long trips you can do the gas. But the trend lately 785 00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:46,039 is for these plug in hybrids, so where you have gas that you plug 786 00:56:46,119 --> 00:56:51,480 it in to recharge your battery and then you have gas for the longer trips. 787 00:56:52,199 --> 00:56:57,199 The problem with that is you have to then build a home charging station, 788 00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,320 right, which which costs you around a thousand bucks. And tell you 789 00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:04,400 from personal experience by a thousand bucks to get the charger and have an electrician 790 00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:08,559 come out and put a two hundred and forty bolt receptacle in in and have 791 00:57:08,679 --> 00:57:10,840 it all hooks up. That's about a thousand bucks. And now you've got 792 00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:15,519 a plug in hybrid. Now, I was under the impression that would the 793 00:57:15,519 --> 00:57:17,880 plug in hybrid would be good because you'd be able to plug in. Maybe 794 00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,519 you can get a couple hundred miles out of the battery, and then then 795 00:57:21,599 --> 00:57:25,719 the gas takes over the plug in hybrid and the regular hybrid range on the 796 00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:31,760 battery is about twenty miles about twenty miles. What are you what are you 797 00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:36,960 thinking? If you're buying a plug in hybrid, you've got to charge the 798 00:57:37,079 --> 00:57:39,320 vehicle and you've got to fill up with gas. So you've got the worst 799 00:57:39,719 --> 00:57:45,119 of both worlds and you've gained virtually nothing. Todd, I know you've driven 800 00:57:45,199 --> 00:57:51,400 a hybrid for years and you thought the plug in hybrids kind of like scratched 801 00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:53,920 the head or the plug in hybrids. It's it's just annoying because you have 802 00:57:54,039 --> 00:58:00,599 two different sources. But the regular gas hybrid it's not meant for the electric 803 00:58:00,679 --> 00:58:04,320 battery. So looking at it, like it only has twenty miles of range. 804 00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:07,559 It doesn't matter what range it has, it matters what kind of gas 805 00:58:07,679 --> 00:58:10,239 mileage am I saving compared to a regular gas car. That's the point of 806 00:58:10,239 --> 00:58:14,159 the gas hybrid. Well, but again you've got one. You've got essentially 807 00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:19,920 one gallon of electric, so you're not using a gallon. So if you've 808 00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,079 got a fifteen gallon, you've done that transfer. Huh, you've done that 809 00:58:22,159 --> 00:58:25,800 calculation transfer. Then now you've got a fourteen fifteen gallon tank. Right, 810 00:58:27,159 --> 00:58:30,159 but that's as show me twenty miles to the gallon, right, so your 811 00:58:30,199 --> 00:58:32,320 battery carrig you're twenty miles. So that's one gallon. I can say that 812 00:58:32,559 --> 00:58:37,159 on a normal car like mine, I could probably outrange them by about one 813 00:58:37,239 --> 00:58:45,239 hundred miles outrange what a regular gas car that my hybrid? Gohead, Okay, 814 00:58:45,559 --> 00:58:47,440 but you don't have the plug in hybrid. No, I have the 815 00:58:47,480 --> 00:58:53,280 regular gas hybrid. It's the hybrid. Art is our outselling the electric one 816 00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:58,639 point seven to one, so people are more comfortable making taking like a half 817 00:58:58,679 --> 00:59:02,920 step. We said that the overall population of cars is like eight percent hybrid 818 00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:07,559 currently and there's four percent electric or something like that. I think it was 819 00:59:07,599 --> 00:59:10,800 eight and five, but I did the math last week at one point, 820 00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:15,639 so it still thirteen percent. You know, you're probably plug in hybrid is 821 00:59:15,679 --> 00:59:17,679 probably one or two percent, right, so only a fifteen percent of the 822 00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:22,159 overall car population is anything electric. I got a guy in the building that 823 00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:27,960 bought got a Mercedes hybrid this past week, and it's not a plug in, 824 00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,079 it's a traditional hybrid. I guess I just don't understand the plug in 825 00:59:31,159 --> 00:59:35,079 hybrid. When I first saw it, I thought, what's going on here? 826 00:59:35,599 --> 00:59:37,199 And I thought, oh, well, maybe you can get you one 827 00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,840 hundred and fifty miles out of your battery. You can't. It just doesn't 828 00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:43,639 make a lot of sense. I couldn't imagine that the savings and gas mileage 829 00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,599 offset the annoyance factor. Yeah, it seems like you got the worst of 830 00:59:46,679 --> 00:59:50,159 both worlds. You have to plug in, you have to get a charge 831 00:59:50,199 --> 00:59:52,519 of station, and and you have to fill it up with the games. 832 00:59:52,679 --> 00:59:58,199 I love the hybrid because even though you're still using gas. It's like when 833 00:59:58,239 --> 01:00:01,599 people are charging their Tesla, they're also still using gas. Like even though 834 01:00:01,639 --> 01:00:06,800 it's electric, that electric is coming from gas, so it's it's still saving 835 01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,920 the planet. Just as much. We have Uh, people can can email 836 01:00:10,039 --> 01:00:15,360 us with questions. That's uh, what's that agreed? It's contact at Greenberg 837 01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:17,000 Financial dot com. I always putt forget to put the content. And the 838 01:00:17,039 --> 01:00:20,960 reason we do that now is obviously the show used to be recorded. It 839 01:00:21,079 --> 01:00:23,840 was live in the studio Sunday mornings, but ever since COVID we have been 840 01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:27,880 recording it on Friday afternoons, so you're not able to call in live anymore. 841 01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:30,679 So we have the contact at Greenberg Financial dot com email to be able 842 01:00:30,679 --> 01:00:32,679 to email us any questions you have and we can talk about it on the 843 01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:37,400 radio, and we had a few of this week in Subashian Orsini. It's 844 01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:40,480 gonna tell us, get tell us what the questions are? Did come up 845 01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:45,239 with a couple of questions, glad to be here everybody. The first one 846 01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:47,320 kind of roots from a lot of financial planning meetings that Dylan and I have 847 01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:52,039 had lately kind of been seeing the same type of question arise when we're going 848 01:00:52,119 --> 01:00:55,400 through the plan. It is what is dollar cost averaging and how does it 849 01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:59,400 work? What do you guys want to take it? Yeah, so dollar 850 01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:01,800 cost average means that you're trying to get an average price. Let's say you 851 01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:05,719 come in, you open an account with ten thousand dollars cash, you have 852 01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:07,960 no securities at all yet, and you just want to be in the SMP 853 01:01:08,039 --> 01:01:12,119 five hundred hundred percent in the SMP five hundred. What we do is call 854 01:01:12,159 --> 01:01:15,880 it dollar cost average. We're not going to go in and buy ten thousand 855 01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:19,400 dollars worth of SMP five hundred on day one. We're gonna buy twenty five 856 01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:22,280 percent of SMP five hundred today, and then thirty days from now we will 857 01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:25,519 buy another twenty five hundred dollars worth of SMP five hundred, and then another 858 01:01:25,599 --> 01:01:30,280 twenty five thirty days later, and then another twenty five percent thirty days after 859 01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:35,000 that. So it's four tranches, it's four buying opportunities of SMP five hundred, 860 01:01:35,199 --> 01:01:37,159 and the idea behind it is to average out the price. Because it's 861 01:01:37,199 --> 01:01:42,639 over a four month period, you can get a more if the stock market 862 01:01:42,679 --> 01:01:45,079 goes down. You're not already one hundred percent invested from day one. You 863 01:01:45,119 --> 01:01:47,519 can buy in, you can lower your unit costs, you can lower your 864 01:01:47,559 --> 01:01:51,239 average price, and that's the whole goal of it. And if you're buying 865 01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:52,960 in it's a high then you're gonna have just a good market. Now, 866 01:01:53,039 --> 01:01:55,679 what do you mean by lowering your unic costs? Explain that so lower in 867 01:01:55,719 --> 01:02:00,079 the unit costs is the average price. So you buy stock for twenty dollars, 868 01:02:00,159 --> 01:02:05,079 you buy the SMP five hundred, hypothetically buy the SMP five hundred for 869 01:02:05,119 --> 01:02:07,800 twenty dollars a share on day one. Then it goes down to ten dollars 870 01:02:07,880 --> 01:02:10,840 a share thirty days later. So thirty days later you're buying another twenty five 871 01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,960 hundred dollars worth of SMP five hundred, but now it's worth ten dollars. 872 01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:20,119 Your average price will be fifteen dollars per share rather than twenty at the initial 873 01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,679 if you bought one hundred percent, if you used all ten thousand dollars on 874 01:02:22,800 --> 01:02:27,960 day one and bought SMP five hundred and twenty dollars a share, your price 875 01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:30,239 will stay at twenty dollars. And that's the idea behind it. If it 876 01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:34,400 does drop, you can lower your price and that would leaven some gunpowder on 877 01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:37,760 the sidelines. Well, the example I just gave of raytheon right, that's 878 01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:42,079 dollar cost average exactly, the example I just gave a few minutes ago. 879 01:02:42,599 --> 01:02:46,119 And the idea is if you put in a specific dollar amount at different times. 880 01:02:46,519 --> 01:02:50,800 If it's higher, you're going to buy fewer shares, if it's lower, 881 01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:52,760 you're going to buy more shares, So you're going to end up with 882 01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:57,079 an average price this is better than you would have gotten if you just throw 883 01:02:57,119 --> 01:03:00,719 an alley and cross your fingers exactly. And then it's also a help if 884 01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:04,800 you've been thinking, if you've just had money on the sidelines for a while 885 01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,000 and you've been trying to get your feet wet, you don't know how too, 886 01:03:07,039 --> 01:03:08,360 because you're thinking you have to go all in or all out. It's 887 01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:10,199 a good way to get your feet wet, and then you have some skin 888 01:03:10,239 --> 01:03:13,440 in the game, and then you're paying attention a lot more and it usually 889 01:03:13,639 --> 01:03:15,159 works a lot better. I also think something to point out is dollar cost 890 01:03:15,199 --> 01:03:20,840 averaging is normally better for market timing during like a four or six month period. 891 01:03:21,239 --> 01:03:23,599 Like you wouldn't want to do dollar cost average every year, for example, 892 01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:28,599 because the market can run up way more and historically the market's up three 893 01:03:28,639 --> 01:03:30,719 out of four years, so likely you're not going to get a better price 894 01:03:30,800 --> 01:03:35,440 than what you could have gotten right there. It depends, of course, 895 01:03:35,559 --> 01:03:39,000 but that's why when you're starting an account with all new cash, and you're 896 01:03:39,079 --> 01:03:44,519 putting in all in day one. That's really risky, rather than you're diversifying 897 01:03:44,559 --> 01:03:46,159 your risk by going over four month period. But you don't want to go 898 01:03:46,280 --> 01:03:50,599 too long because again, the market historically always does go up. But as 899 01:03:50,639 --> 01:03:52,079 a guy who's been around for a long time, if you had a dollar 900 01:03:52,199 --> 01:03:57,960 cost average back in a nineteen eighty one when the Dow Jones industry a one 901 01:03:58,079 --> 01:04:00,719 thousand for the very first time, if you had a dollar cost average every 902 01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:05,280 six months or every year for the last forty years, you've been looking pretty 903 01:04:05,320 --> 01:04:09,159 good. Oh yeah, that's all. Well, now we're talking about four 904 01:04:09,199 --> 01:04:13,800 to one ks and things like. I agree, yea. I do have 905 01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:15,559 another question. This one's gonna be geared a little bit more towards the federal 906 01:04:15,599 --> 01:04:19,920 employees since we're enrolling on that as of late. This one's is what are 907 01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:23,880 the options? What are some of the options for withdrawing from a TSP in 908 01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:28,679 retirement? Yeah, so you have about three different options. I mean if 909 01:04:28,719 --> 01:04:30,840 you're both and what is a TSP? Yeah so, I mean if you're 910 01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:33,400 a federal employee, you'll know what a TSP is. It's the thrist Savings 911 01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:36,280 Plan For people who aren't federal employees, the TSP is just four one K 912 01:04:36,440 --> 01:04:43,559 for federal employees. If you're below sixty, things are a little different because 913 01:04:43,679 --> 01:04:45,559 of the fact that before fifty nine and a half, taking out of a 914 01:04:45,599 --> 01:04:49,639 four one K you get penalized. But in a TSP, there's a provision 915 01:04:49,719 --> 01:04:53,239 where if you're over the age of fifty five, you can take out of 916 01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:56,840 the TSP and not be penalized the ten percent penalty. However, you can't 917 01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:00,320 roll over that TSP before you turn sixty into an IRA and take money out 918 01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:04,000 of IRA. You'll still get penalized. So that's why if you're before sixty, 919 01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:09,199 you have the option to take money out of the TSP as regular income 920 01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:12,800 and not be penalized. Then after fifty nine and a half the door opens 921 01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,679 up for everyone. You can either keep the money in TSP and you can 922 01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:23,960 do four withdrawals a year. That's correct, right, Dylan, service withdrawals 923 01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:27,519 a year and it's it's uh, it has to be thirty one days apart 924 01:05:27,719 --> 01:05:31,760 if I'm correct, and you and that's the problem with leaving in TSP necessarily 925 01:05:31,840 --> 01:05:34,440 that you can do say you can do four like back to back to back 926 01:05:34,519 --> 01:05:39,440 days, but they won't process each one until thirty days. So if you 927 01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:42,679 want to and that's the sense behind it, right, just don't process it 928 01:05:42,760 --> 01:05:45,840 for thirty days. And we all know if you are a federal employee, 929 01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:48,440 you know that the federal government does not move fast. They can. They 930 01:05:48,519 --> 01:05:55,519 always have issues with trying to get reports done and different filing stuff done, 931 01:05:55,559 --> 01:05:59,280 and we've run into issues ourselves with them. But if you want to not 932 01:05:59,440 --> 01:06:01,679 deal with the t SP after your fifty nine and a half or after you're 933 01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:04,599 retired, then what you can do is take that money and roll it into 934 01:06:04,639 --> 01:06:10,519 an IRA. There is no tax implications the money is. It does come 935 01:06:10,599 --> 01:06:14,880 over as cash, so whatever holders you are get sold and then it comes 936 01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:17,639 over as cash and it gets deposited into an IRA at whatever money manager you 937 01:06:17,719 --> 01:06:20,880 wanted to deal with there. Yeah, and the one thing we do I 938 01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:24,599 know federal employees, if youre a federal employee, you have a very unique 939 01:06:24,719 --> 01:06:29,280 retirement system. And what we can do is our financial plan. It really 940 01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:31,519 helps. I mean, you can do it even though it's just for regular 941 01:06:31,519 --> 01:06:34,039 four one case and all that, it does work with the federal employees. 942 01:06:34,239 --> 01:06:38,559 But what we really got it into lately is we're able to figure out your 943 01:06:38,800 --> 01:06:41,840 projected pension as well, whether you're ten years out, twenty years out, 944 01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:45,280 whatever, two years out, we can help you find what your pension could 945 01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:48,719 be and we can put it into our financial plan and put it all together 946 01:06:49,000 --> 01:06:53,039 and show you what your retirement could look like. We had a client last 947 01:06:53,039 --> 01:06:56,400 week who had no idea what his projected pension would look like, and so 948 01:06:56,599 --> 01:06:59,760 we are easily able to find Okay, when did you start service, what 949 01:07:00,119 --> 01:07:02,239 is your last year's payment? And then from there those the only thing two 950 01:07:02,280 --> 01:07:05,440 things I need. I can project out what his pension would look like if 951 01:07:05,440 --> 01:07:10,280 he retires at sixty sixty two, sixty five, sixty seven. How it 952 01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,719 changes, whether it makes sense, whether a survivor benefit makes sense. And 953 01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:18,840 for federal employees, they know that a survivor benefit will continue their pension to 954 01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:24,159 their spouse, to their air either twenty five or fifty percent of it at 955 01:07:24,199 --> 01:07:28,920 the data there passing, But that means that your pension gets reduced when you 956 01:07:29,079 --> 01:07:32,320 start receiving it. So there's different ways to see where maybe it makes sense 957 01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:36,400 to use life insurance instead of a survivor benefit. Maybe that's more lucrative there's 958 01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:40,480 a lot of things that you can look at from analysis point of view by 959 01:07:40,599 --> 01:07:44,719 using our financial planning software, and it's completely free to anyone who wants to 960 01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:46,400 utilize. It's important to remember too, when you roll into an IRA, 961 01:07:46,559 --> 01:07:50,519 if you're over fifty five, right, what you can do? You want 962 01:07:50,559 --> 01:07:56,880 to be careful because in the DSP you can take money out penalty free after 963 01:07:57,079 --> 01:08:00,760 fifty five. Right. Yeah, yeah, he was explaining earlier, right, 964 01:08:00,079 --> 01:08:03,119 And that's that's I missed that completely. You completely missed it. But 965 01:08:03,239 --> 01:08:06,559 yeah, never, I was looking at my notes and we're going okay. 966 01:08:06,760 --> 01:08:10,920 But that's why it's super important that you know. Tsp's a headache. But 967 01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:13,400 if you're before fifty nine and a half, it's probably a headache you want 968 01:08:13,440 --> 01:08:15,479 to deal with if you think you need to take money from your retirement account 969 01:08:15,760 --> 01:08:18,439 four fifty nine and a half and you're retired. If you don't, then 970 01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:21,399 you could obviously it is legal to roll it all over to IRA. You 971 01:08:21,479 --> 01:08:25,840 just got to know that provision and that penalty you could incur. Right, 972 01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:28,920 So Ash, thank you, we appreciate it. We had a couple of 973 01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:32,119 interesting IPOs this week. You guys follow that to arm YEP, Right, 974 01:08:32,199 --> 01:08:35,439 and instat carts. Well, ARM was last week. Ye, ARM late 975 01:08:35,520 --> 01:08:38,560 last week. Yeah, ARM was late last week. But in the last 976 01:08:38,560 --> 01:08:43,520 of two this week, well the third one, though, you didn't really 977 01:08:43,560 --> 01:08:46,840 care about the third one. I didn't yet. I think that's why I 978 01:08:46,840 --> 01:08:49,800 didn't care about it. But it was kind of interesting because ARM came out 979 01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:55,600 and it was it was up thirty five percent from its IPO price last week. 980 01:08:56,239 --> 01:09:00,119 And it actually somebody must have actually looked at the valuation, you know, 981 01:09:00,199 --> 01:09:04,560 and realize that it's trading for fifty percent the value of of Navidia with 982 01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:09,079 ten percent of the revenue, and down it came back to its IPO price. 983 01:09:09,159 --> 01:09:12,119 In this instat cart thing, What is up with this instacrt thing. 984 01:09:12,760 --> 01:09:16,640 It's it's a service that will go get groceries for you and bring you to 985 01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:19,760 their house, bring it to your house. Right, every grocery store does 986 01:09:19,840 --> 01:09:23,920 that. Why do we need instacrt. I don't understand. Well, it's 987 01:09:23,920 --> 01:09:26,239 not the grocery store that does a door dash, does it. I buy 988 01:09:26,279 --> 01:09:29,479 my groceries through Safeway, but on DoorDash and they can deliver it to me, 989 01:09:30,119 --> 01:09:31,199 right, But the grocery I think the grocery store does it. Also 990 01:09:31,199 --> 01:09:35,560 because the Safeway's got like twenty trucks setting in a parking lot to stay. 991 01:09:35,600 --> 01:09:39,960 Safeway on them for this though. To deliver food, yeah, I haven't 992 01:09:40,000 --> 01:09:42,880 seen it. And wrong, but I haven't seen that. And I think 993 01:09:43,119 --> 01:09:45,600 almost every grocery store I will deliver food to you if you if you call 994 01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:48,439 them. Yeah. I think it's a good point too, because when you 995 01:09:48,479 --> 01:09:53,119 look at something like Lift and Uber, right, you know one one out, 996 01:09:54,039 --> 01:09:57,399 well, the stop jump forty percent, This instatcrt thing jump forty percent 997 01:09:57,479 --> 01:10:00,880 and it's close Friday under the IPO price. Gave up the whole forty percent. 998 01:10:00,960 --> 01:10:02,920 Then probably try to just make a quick buck sell because we tease the 999 01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:06,159 idea of it being saturated that market. Or maybe they sat maybe they sat 1000 01:10:06,199 --> 01:10:10,920 there and think it looks like somebody already does this. Between Walmart, Kroger, 1001 01:10:11,159 --> 01:10:14,399 DoorDash, and instacrt, someone is gonna win out, and it's likely 1002 01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:19,600 DoorDash and Instacart. I think maybe they wouldn't losing that is because that's not 1003 01:10:19,640 --> 01:10:24,520 their primary business. They do all the righties. Doesn't Uber do that now 1004 01:10:24,600 --> 01:10:28,920 too? Eats? Yeah, that's a different thing against the cart's more just 1005 01:10:29,239 --> 01:10:31,840 for groceries groceries, right, Well, I know, yeah, dashes all 1006 01:10:31,840 --> 01:10:34,520 the restaurants in different I may be wrong, but I think I've thought grocery 1007 01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:39,840 stores were delivering to people for years now, so I don't know where instact, 1008 01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,439 no, they haven't been delivering. They've been doing instant pick up, 1009 01:10:43,239 --> 01:10:46,079 so that's a different thing. I actually have elderly people that are getting deliveries 1010 01:10:46,159 --> 01:10:50,880 from grocery stores, and so I haven't like, yeah, but how many 1011 01:10:50,960 --> 01:10:55,960 elderly people are using instacart DoorDash? I don't even how many young people are? 1012 01:10:56,000 --> 01:10:58,760 Are you talking to them? I've never even heard of this. Okay, 1013 01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:02,720 maybe we really may we really need these people, and I just don't 1014 01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:08,359 know it. I was under the impression that that safe way fries all these 1015 01:11:08,399 --> 01:11:12,399 people were delivering for years now. So I'll do more researchful talk about was 1016 01:11:12,439 --> 01:11:14,439 like, rather than give it to a third party, why not bringing the 1017 01:11:14,479 --> 01:11:15,600 revenue yourself? I don't know. It seems it seems odd. And I 1018 01:11:15,680 --> 01:11:21,000 know the safe way, the one I drive by it to liability boom happens 1019 01:11:21,000 --> 01:11:26,880 when what happens when a Walmart employee delivers and he gets gun shot rather than 1020 01:11:26,960 --> 01:11:31,359 a door dash employee games a gun shot during the delivery. Yeah, modern 1021 01:11:31,439 --> 01:11:34,520 times, what if they're on they could happen, could happen, That's what 1022 01:11:34,520 --> 01:11:40,560 I'm saying. So onstead of Walmart having that liability that they financial party, 1023 01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:43,840 what if you do a financial plan and get shot? Okay, what if 1024 01:11:43,880 --> 01:11:45,720 you're doing a radio show and somebody shoots you, like right now? You 1025 01:11:45,800 --> 01:11:50,079 know or you know, Dave, Historically, the worst time to buy stocks 1026 01:11:50,159 --> 01:11:55,359 is when unemployment is low below four percent and rise. Really yeah, And 1027 01:11:55,439 --> 01:11:58,880 I was like, really, that's kind of actually surprising. Like the SNP 1028 01:11:59,039 --> 01:12:01,199 only gains around three percent when it's below four percent, and that's where we 1029 01:12:01,279 --> 01:12:05,680 currently are. And the highest one is when it's eighteen percent. That's amazing. 1030 01:12:06,079 --> 01:12:10,079 Well, we appreciate everybody coming up, Phil break here. We'll be 1031 01:12:10,199 --> 01:12:14,039 back after this freak. We've got Jonathan Sabilia joining us, and uh do 1032 01:12:14,079 --> 01:12:15,439 you know we Backham. We'll look forward to talking with you. Thanks for 1033 01:12:15,520 --> 01:12:27,199 listening. Say it's all a name, Welcome back everyone. This is the 1034 01:12:27,239 --> 01:12:30,279 Money Matter Show. My name is Todd Click. I'm here with Dave Sherwood, 1035 01:12:30,359 --> 01:12:34,720 Dean Greenberg, Dylan Greenberg, and my man Jonathan Sabilia. Always great 1036 01:12:34,760 --> 01:12:41,279 to have my man John on the estate planning side of things. John Sabilia 1037 01:12:41,439 --> 01:12:45,800 Esquire attorney in law Esquire who has his own business but he is associated with 1038 01:12:46,000 --> 01:12:51,720 us, has an office here in our office, has been talking to a 1039 01:12:51,840 --> 01:12:59,880 lot of our clients about legal issues that they have been primarily estate planning issues. 1040 01:13:00,119 --> 01:13:04,039 Correct. Yes, and it's a it's amazing how many people haven't really 1041 01:13:04,319 --> 01:13:06,840 well. I will also say it's not just the state planning. I mean 1042 01:13:08,119 --> 01:13:12,760 he's a great resource for certain tax matters, but also business succession, and 1043 01:13:12,840 --> 01:13:15,760 I think that's something that a lot of our clients have no idea where to 1044 01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:18,600 begin with. There's really nothing. I mean, what's your Google search on 1045 01:13:18,680 --> 01:13:20,960 that? Right? How do I sell my business? I mean good luck. 1046 01:13:21,279 --> 01:13:26,960 So having an expert to have on the team is very very useful. 1047 01:13:27,279 --> 01:13:29,960 We got to have a two clients in this morning, both sixty six years 1048 01:13:30,000 --> 01:13:32,279 old, have never thought about even having a will. I think it's something 1049 01:13:32,279 --> 01:13:35,920 they probably ought to do. That's what they're thinking. Oh, Jonathan gets 1050 01:13:35,960 --> 01:13:39,199 a call, going to get a call from them, tell us what's going 1051 01:13:39,199 --> 01:13:42,159 on in your world? But oh, you know, the same old same. 1052 01:13:42,359 --> 01:13:45,439 First off, my pronoun is the man, not my man. So 1053 01:13:45,399 --> 01:13:48,760 but I'll take it. Did you just use pronoun on this show. I 1054 01:13:48,840 --> 01:13:58,760 did. That's a very that's very very sophisticated. Sophisticated. Yeah, a 1055 01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:08,000 good story. I apologize. I'll stay away from that, all right. 1056 01:14:08,079 --> 01:14:13,159 I crossed. I crossed the line, all right. Well, as usual, 1057 01:14:13,359 --> 01:14:15,319 I usually start off one of the one of these segments with with a 1058 01:14:15,439 --> 01:14:19,239 story, so you know, it's kind of about the importance of getting an 1059 01:14:19,239 --> 01:14:24,680 attorney and not just you know, sometimes a document prepare is a good idea 1060 01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:28,680 in certain circumstances, but sometimes I'll get you in trouble and get themselves in 1061 01:14:28,720 --> 01:14:30,800 trouble at the same time. So I had a lady call me, all 1062 01:14:30,880 --> 01:14:33,199 right, actually a gentlemen call me. I said, you know, I 1063 01:14:33,239 --> 01:14:35,479 haven't heard from my sister in about a year and a half. She was 1064 01:14:35,880 --> 01:14:43,439 handling mom's probate and uh, so I said, well, I'll reach out 1065 01:14:43,479 --> 01:14:45,720 to her. I haven't heard from her. And then I looked at the 1066 01:14:45,800 --> 01:14:49,920 deed and I saw that it went from the probate estate to her personally. 1067 01:14:50,479 --> 01:14:54,279 And I called him back and I said, hey, look, you know, 1068 01:14:55,560 --> 01:14:59,840 it looks like she has administered the estate, but she administered everything to 1069 01:14:59,880 --> 01:15:05,359 her self, right, and uh, I don't handle that kind of probate. 1070 01:15:05,439 --> 01:15:09,880 So I handed it off to one of my mentors. He's a litigation 1071 01:15:09,920 --> 01:15:15,119 attorney, amazing guy, and he called me in. The client said it 1072 01:15:15,199 --> 01:15:17,119 was okay, and he spoke to me about the case and he told me 1073 01:15:17,239 --> 01:15:23,640 what's going on, and uh, apparently she had one of those document preparers. 1074 01:15:23,920 --> 01:15:27,199 Okay, and they could be a great resource. What is a document 1075 01:15:27,319 --> 01:15:30,279 preparer? Just somebody that you know here in Arizona. Is they could prepare 1076 01:15:30,359 --> 01:15:33,079 legal documents. And that's their title. I mean, that's their job, 1077 01:15:33,359 --> 01:15:38,960 is document preparing. They can, they can prepare pleadings. They can. 1078 01:15:39,640 --> 01:15:43,520 I've heard circumstances where they're preparing legal documents like wills and trust but they do 1079 01:15:43,640 --> 01:15:47,439 it. I'm the cheat. And they have their own businesses and yeah, 1080 01:15:47,680 --> 01:15:50,560 if you wanted a will, you call this document prepare and say prepare me 1081 01:15:50,640 --> 01:15:54,359 a will. Apparently I haven't met any yet, so I you know, 1082 01:15:54,399 --> 01:15:56,960 I need to get around a little bit more. But I know a mortgage 1083 01:15:56,960 --> 01:15:59,680 guy, not a mortgage guy, an insurance guy that only deals with the 1084 01:15:59,760 --> 01:16:04,199 doctor prepare for his state planning clients. And so you know, they could, 1085 01:16:04,199 --> 01:16:08,039 like I said, they could be a great resource. But apparently he 1086 01:16:08,159 --> 01:16:11,039 gave her the wrong legal advice, and now she's in a lot of hot 1087 01:16:11,119 --> 01:16:14,279 water, all right, just because it's it's a it's a it's a male. 1088 01:16:15,520 --> 01:16:17,640 I'm not sure what the term he uses is a litigation term, but 1089 01:16:18,159 --> 01:16:24,560 she basically inappropriately distributed assets to herself. And now, like I said, 1090 01:16:24,600 --> 01:16:27,720 she's in hot water. And I think this document payer might be a little 1091 01:16:27,720 --> 01:16:30,920 bit hot water because he asked the right questions. It doesn't sound like she 1092 01:16:30,159 --> 01:16:34,000 was an innocent in this, no. And the thing is is that if 1093 01:16:34,039 --> 01:16:39,720 you're an attorney and you're overseeing a probated state, is your job to make 1094 01:16:39,800 --> 01:16:45,560 sure you know the personal representatives flying straight. And that's why you know, 1095 01:16:45,720 --> 01:16:48,039 Well, maybe this girl went in with bad intentions and thought she'd get away 1096 01:16:48,079 --> 01:16:51,119 with it, but she's not going to. So it is not always a 1097 01:16:51,159 --> 01:16:55,520 good, good idea to get yourself a document, prepare, or just do 1098 01:16:55,640 --> 01:16:58,439 it yourself. Sometimes you need some legal advice, you need an attorney to 1099 01:16:58,520 --> 01:17:01,359 take care of it for you. It's hard to imagine that that most siblings 1100 01:17:01,439 --> 01:17:04,640 would just stand by and let this happen in a year and a half later, 1101 01:17:04,800 --> 01:17:10,600 right. Uh. In the cases I've dealt with, I had recently 1102 01:17:10,680 --> 01:17:14,920 had a really good, long time client of twenty years passed away, and 1103 01:17:15,000 --> 01:17:18,279 he had five heirs, and they are all adults, and they are all 1104 01:17:19,000 --> 01:17:25,359 educated, and they're all well employed. This thing got straightened out and distributed 1105 01:17:25,399 --> 01:17:30,319 within about two weeks. It was just amazing because you depend we depend upon 1106 01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:34,399 them to react to our wishing. You know, well, I need this, 1107 01:17:34,560 --> 01:17:38,920 this and this, and you know sometimes three months later. I had 1108 01:17:38,960 --> 01:17:43,520 one case where one of the heirs refused to take his portion of the estate 1109 01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:46,880 because it was screw up his Obamacare was one hundred thousand dollars. He refused 1110 01:17:46,880 --> 01:17:50,760 to take one hundred thousand dollars because it was screw up his Obamacare. Thinking 1111 01:17:50,800 --> 01:17:55,199 with a hundred thousan dollars, you can buy some trance right and have something 1112 01:17:55,279 --> 01:17:58,079 left over. Let's worry about Obamacare. What was the other one you had? 1113 01:17:58,079 --> 01:18:00,279 The one you and you had a long time client, some clients of 1114 01:18:00,319 --> 01:18:04,359 ours from twenty five years we're in today. Great people, aren't fun. 1115 01:18:04,560 --> 01:18:08,359 Great people. They've been clients here longer than I've been alive. Yeah, 1116 01:18:08,680 --> 01:18:11,800 yeah, that's true today, that's right. Yeah, I probably got by 1117 01:18:11,840 --> 01:18:15,000 thirty years. Yeah, thirty years. Huh, it's amazing. Yeah, 1118 01:18:15,359 --> 01:18:17,199 they I looked at and I you know, obviously I can't say who they 1119 01:18:17,239 --> 01:18:21,279 are, but they had a Mom had a trust that's over thirty years old 1120 01:18:21,359 --> 01:18:25,640 or about thirty years old, and so you could just tell by the way 1121 01:18:25,640 --> 01:18:28,159 it was written. You know, it had all the old terminology and the 1122 01:18:28,199 --> 01:18:30,760 old set up. But you know, we went through each deed. You 1123 01:18:30,800 --> 01:18:35,880 know. Unfortunately, Mom she was diagnosed with uh, you know, a 1124 01:18:36,039 --> 01:18:42,800 cancer. But apparently she has a positive outlook and and they have positive stories 1125 01:18:43,000 --> 01:18:45,159 of you know, it's it's something that she could possibly live with for a 1126 01:18:45,199 --> 01:18:49,359 long time. But it kind of triggered something where let's take a look at 1127 01:18:49,359 --> 01:18:51,680 everything. So I shot over to your office and I said, you know, 1128 01:18:53,239 --> 01:18:56,640 uh, let's just make sure you got the girls are on the as 1129 01:18:56,720 --> 01:18:59,199 beneficiary as it a four oh one K. You did a quick search, 1130 01:18:59,239 --> 01:19:00,279 and he said, yep, that's absolute right. In fact, I think 1131 01:19:00,279 --> 01:19:03,760 you did a top right off the topic I had. Actually when I found 1132 01:19:03,800 --> 01:19:06,479 out that she was ill a couple of days ago, the first thing I 1133 01:19:06,560 --> 01:19:12,439 did is looked at her Ira made sure that the beneficiaries were the two daughters, 1134 01:19:12,800 --> 01:19:16,199 and also made sure that she'd taken her entire required minimum distribution this year. 1135 01:19:16,359 --> 01:19:18,159 Yeah, and it was nice. I just got the you know, 1136 01:19:18,359 --> 01:19:20,119 in the middle of the meeting, I said, give me one second, 1137 01:19:20,720 --> 01:19:25,279 stood up and went to the next room, and everything was cleared up. 1138 01:19:25,399 --> 01:19:27,840 So that's nice, you know, because we worked together and we worked so 1139 01:19:27,960 --> 01:19:30,319 closely, so it's good. It's it's a good relationship. But you know, 1140 01:19:30,439 --> 01:19:33,479 we had the big screen TV in the in the room and I said, 1141 01:19:33,560 --> 01:19:36,359 let's do a quick deed search. We did some deed searching, and 1142 01:19:36,760 --> 01:19:42,680 we noticed that the trust that they had in front of him was worthless because 1143 01:19:43,079 --> 01:19:46,039 the properties were not funded into the trust. So that's what we're going to 1144 01:19:46,079 --> 01:19:50,359 be doing. Literally, the two homes that they were concerned about, well 1145 01:19:50,439 --> 01:19:53,640 one of them was already in the trust. The other one was not. 1146 01:19:53,800 --> 01:19:56,640 But still that still causes problems, right, The one that was not in 1147 01:19:56,720 --> 01:19:59,279 the trust was the one that they're the most concerned about. Yeah, and 1148 01:19:59,840 --> 01:20:00,640 the and to be honest, you I don't even know if we're going to 1149 01:20:00,680 --> 01:20:03,760 fund it with the trust because we want to do a specific distribution, which 1150 01:20:03,800 --> 01:20:08,279 means it's going to go to someone in particular. So we're just going to 1151 01:20:08,319 --> 01:20:11,479 do a quick beneficiary deed and it's going to go right to the right to 1152 01:20:11,560 --> 01:20:15,279 the one daughter, So we don't even need to mess with trustees and trusts. 1153 01:20:15,359 --> 01:20:16,960 We can just do it that way, right, and you have how 1154 01:20:17,000 --> 01:20:21,159 do you do with the cost basis? The cost? Well, that's a 1155 01:20:21,239 --> 01:20:27,000 great point. I didn't want to give it to her outright because if something 1156 01:20:27,159 --> 01:20:30,119 was to happen to mom, cost basis would bump up a fair market value 1157 01:20:30,680 --> 01:20:32,520 at her day to death. Now, if I was to give it to 1158 01:20:32,560 --> 01:20:36,600 her today, she would inherit mom's basis, And if she bought it twenty 1159 01:20:36,680 --> 01:20:41,039 years ago, you know, Arizona property twenty years ago, it is probably 1160 01:20:41,720 --> 01:20:44,720 pennies on a dollar. I think it's important for a lot of people who 1161 01:20:45,079 --> 01:20:49,119 are haven't done any estate planning. They're concerned because of the prices, and 1162 01:20:49,159 --> 01:20:54,239 they're like, they think every state planning attorneys can sell them the trust, 1163 01:20:54,600 --> 01:20:57,800 and it's not always the case. A good estate planning attorney, we'll give 1164 01:20:57,840 --> 01:21:01,680 you tools if it's approp to not use a trust. You know, no, 1165 01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:05,479 that's absolutely right. I mean I could have an entire restatement and charged 1166 01:21:05,520 --> 01:21:09,159 them full price. But oh yeah, what's the point, you know, 1167 01:21:09,359 --> 01:21:12,680 it's it wasn't necessary, But their attorneys that will do that to you. 1168 01:21:13,039 --> 01:21:16,239 And you know there are some attorneys that what I'm gonna do, you know, 1169 01:21:16,279 --> 01:21:18,600 I'm just going to mend the trust a little bit to do a specific 1170 01:21:18,680 --> 01:21:24,800 distribution as well. Uh, there is some argument out there that you know, 1171 01:21:24,960 --> 01:21:29,239 why it meant something that's not yours, but I'm it was the two 1172 01:21:29,319 --> 01:21:33,159 daughters. They're sole beneficiaries. There's not going to be any in fighting and 1173 01:21:33,279 --> 01:21:36,239 I and I read through the document. It seemed pretty solid. So you 1174 01:21:36,279 --> 01:21:39,479 know, I'm just gonna do a small amendment. I don't need to restate 1175 01:21:39,520 --> 01:21:42,199 it and put in my own words, which could be very easy to do. 1176 01:21:42,439 --> 01:21:44,920 Very easy to do is run a couple of thousand dollar bill easily, 1177 01:21:45,119 --> 01:21:47,159 right exactly, So I'm gonna save them about three thousand dollars. Yeah, 1178 01:21:47,159 --> 01:21:51,279 I think it's important. I think it's important that people understand that if you 1179 01:21:51,439 --> 01:21:57,840 need the legal services, you are physically in the Greenberg Financial office, and 1180 01:21:58,000 --> 01:22:01,840 Dean would not have you physically in the Greenberg Financial office if you were doing 1181 01:22:02,079 --> 01:22:06,159 untoward things like that about and that's what makes us all tick. I mean, 1182 01:22:06,239 --> 01:22:13,000 it's Dean's huge John doing the right thing and charging people a reasonable price 1183 01:22:13,119 --> 01:22:15,399 for what they're getting and and and that goes right to you, and it 1184 01:22:15,439 --> 01:22:19,359 goes to insurance people and everyone else we deal with. And I also want 1185 01:22:19,359 --> 01:22:23,279 to hammer this every time John's on the shows. He's talked about it before 1186 01:22:24,039 --> 01:22:27,920 the ESCORP, right. I mean, it's for certain businesses. It's something 1187 01:22:28,000 --> 01:22:30,720 that definitely needs to be looked at, especially in terms of being able to 1188 01:22:30,840 --> 01:22:36,159 set up four one k's certain define benefit plans, to find contribution plans like 1189 01:22:36,279 --> 01:22:40,479 you have to be able to look at what are the tax savings I'm missing 1190 01:22:40,520 --> 01:22:43,439 out on. I have a client, you know, I don't know what 1191 01:22:43,520 --> 01:22:45,840 our time is, but I just met with him this week and he is 1192 01:22:45,840 --> 01:22:49,279 a cheap as they come, and he is worth twenty thirty million dollars. 1193 01:22:49,920 --> 01:22:56,439 He's a real estate professional. He does his own taxes. That's how you 1194 01:22:56,520 --> 01:22:58,680 know. He doesn't want to pay a CEPA. And he came to me 1195 01:23:00,119 --> 01:23:02,359 and I took a look at everything and I'm saying, you are paying way 1196 01:23:02,439 --> 01:23:05,600 too much in self employment tax? What are you doing? And so I 1197 01:23:05,920 --> 01:23:12,079 referred him to a CPA. The CPA hasn't responded yet. But you know, 1198 01:23:12,279 --> 01:23:15,840 it's just one of those things that people don't realize that you can't. 1199 01:23:15,800 --> 01:23:20,319 It's a it's a very it's not a very sophisticated formation in the S corp. 1200 01:23:20,479 --> 01:23:24,880 But it's necessary certain circumstances, and you could avoid a lot of self 1201 01:23:24,920 --> 01:23:30,600 employment tax if if you if that's what's showing up on your ten forty and 1202 01:23:30,680 --> 01:23:32,000 if and if you knew needed it. I mean, so many times people 1203 01:23:32,000 --> 01:23:34,640 are like, I'm selling my business and then we look at the statements, 1204 01:23:34,680 --> 01:23:36,560 right John, We're like, oh, my goodness, this should have been 1205 01:23:36,560 --> 01:23:41,319 an escort fifteen years ago, right exactly. So I mean not every not 1206 01:23:41,439 --> 01:23:45,279 every business should be an scorp, but it should be something that's considered or 1207 01:23:45,359 --> 01:23:48,720 some sort of some sort of formation, and you know, maybe you need 1208 01:23:48,800 --> 01:23:51,359 a C corp. We back in the day, I used to do a 1209 01:23:51,399 --> 01:23:55,920 lot of my TEP companies that I would do taxes for. They were all 1210 01:23:55,960 --> 01:24:00,199 C corps. Why because they would harbor the money inside the C corp and 1211 01:24:00,359 --> 01:24:02,479 just let it grow and grow and grow, and now what to do tax 1212 01:24:02,600 --> 01:24:08,159 laws. It's not it's not that bad to take dividends anymore so, but 1213 01:24:08,520 --> 01:24:13,039 it's still one of those formations that all makes sense for certain types of industry 1214 01:24:13,079 --> 01:24:16,239 and certain types of businesses. Subs certainly didn't make a call. If if 1215 01:24:16,279 --> 01:24:18,920 you have any questions, you can call Jonathan. He shared our office five 1216 01:24:19,000 --> 01:24:24,399 two zero five four four four nine zero nine and with our financial plan and 1217 01:24:24,680 --> 01:24:28,279 tandem with the estate planning for people that need the business planning, people who 1218 01:24:28,279 --> 01:24:30,479 want to set up four one k is changing the escorpse. That's why we 1219 01:24:30,560 --> 01:24:33,680 work so great together. And totally no obligation. I mean, you can 1220 01:24:33,720 --> 01:24:38,199 get all of this advice for nothing, so give us a call. It 1221 01:24:38,199 --> 01:24:40,319 would be worth your time. We're coming up on a break here. We 1222 01:24:40,439 --> 01:24:45,119 appreciate your listening to us on this Sunday morning, and we'll be back right 1223 01:24:45,159 --> 01:24:59,600 after this breaks say it's all a name. Welcome back everybody. It's been 1224 01:24:59,640 --> 01:25:02,840 a full packed money about a show. If you missed any part of it, 1225 01:25:02,880 --> 01:25:06,159 we want to go back. Just go to a website Greenberg Financial dot 1226 01:25:06,159 --> 01:25:11,560 com, don't know a YouTube section and you'll find all the past shows, 1227 01:25:11,680 --> 01:25:15,800 including this one. Well, I guess tomorrow it'll be on there tomorrow, 1228 01:25:15,039 --> 01:25:17,840 last week, last segment of the week, last segment of the show. 1229 01:25:17,920 --> 01:25:21,319 Would you like a positive news? Should we like an end on a positive 1230 01:25:21,359 --> 01:25:26,079 news? There's a lot of emphasis on the positive slow because because there's yeah, 1231 01:25:26,119 --> 01:25:29,640 because there's If it's not if it's not good news, it doesn't get 1232 01:25:29,680 --> 01:25:30,880 report. If it's not bad news, it doesn't get reported. Right, 1233 01:25:32,319 --> 01:25:38,039 it's of no interest to anybody. So last year we had a lot of 1234 01:25:38,239 --> 01:25:43,760 dire predictions about the nation's largest man made reservoir, which is Lake Mead, 1235 01:25:44,119 --> 01:25:48,600 Okay, going dry. But because of the heavy snowfall last winter, the 1236 01:25:48,760 --> 01:25:54,199 lake has risen. Get this, the lake has risen twenty two feet. 1237 01:25:54,960 --> 01:25:59,760 Wow. I mean it's a massive reservoir. Don't You don't because feet climate, 1238 01:26:00,399 --> 01:26:03,760 It doesn't go to their it's there, their their speech. Oh look 1239 01:26:03,800 --> 01:26:06,239 what's happening. Like you said, they're not going to report positive news. 1240 01:26:06,359 --> 01:26:10,600 No, no, that's really positive. Not only that, but Lake Mohave 1241 01:26:10,760 --> 01:26:14,119 and Lake Havishu, which are downstream from Lake Mead, are both at one 1242 01:26:14,199 --> 01:26:16,960 hundred percent of capacity. You won't find any more bones hanging around either. 1243 01:26:17,079 --> 01:26:19,840 No, you're not gonna be and they're not gonna be draining lake meat to 1244 01:26:19,920 --> 01:26:24,399 fill up the two lakes down below. Is that crazy? You never hear 1245 01:26:25,119 --> 01:26:27,720 two feet? You don't. I give you a hard time when you come 1246 01:26:27,840 --> 01:26:30,680 up with like all the weather and stuff. This is a good one twenty 1247 01:26:30,720 --> 01:26:36,399 two feet that's along. That's it's good. That's what said. It fits 1248 01:26:36,479 --> 01:26:40,239 my agenda. That's a good weather report. You know, Tuesday, get 1249 01:26:40,279 --> 01:26:44,560 this Tuesday, Amazon? You don't like this Tuesday? Amazon rolled out there 1250 01:26:45,000 --> 01:26:48,560 just walk out system that allows customers to buy clothing without waiting in a line. 1251 01:26:48,680 --> 01:26:54,039 And I'm thinking this is going on all over the nation. What company 1252 01:26:54,199 --> 01:27:00,119 is this Amazon? Just walk out it allows you to buy clothing. It 1253 01:27:00,279 --> 01:27:06,720 was the store I have no idea. Well close it's tall foods. No, 1254 01:27:08,279 --> 01:27:11,760 no, no, it's clothing. But and they're they're installing it the 1255 01:27:11,800 --> 01:27:17,000 clothing stores obviously. I just like Amazon sells their stuff on Amazon. Right 1256 01:27:17,439 --> 01:27:20,600 you can buy it. Say you buy like a jacket on Amazon from ULM 1257 01:27:20,600 --> 01:27:24,760 and then you go go to Lancantada and pick it up and leave. You 1258 01:27:24,920 --> 01:27:27,960 go. See what you're saying? Or is there like an Amazon store that 1259 01:27:28,039 --> 01:27:30,880 we don't know? If? No, it's it's it's just walk out the 1260 01:27:30,960 --> 01:27:32,520 system that allows them to buy me walk out, like, don't walk out 1261 01:27:32,560 --> 01:27:35,359 of where you don't have to pay? Where where you pay for? What 1262 01:27:35,640 --> 01:27:40,039 store? Where do you paymon store? But have you ever had no idea? 1263 01:27:40,079 --> 01:27:44,279 I thought why do you come they bring this up? Never mind I 1264 01:27:44,560 --> 01:27:46,479 was however, no, put yourself on the other side. However, just 1265 01:27:46,600 --> 01:27:48,600 to walk out, you don't know where the store is. You don't even 1266 01:27:48,600 --> 01:27:53,720 know if they pay. I'm looking that's a that's a good. Well. 1267 01:27:53,800 --> 01:27:56,319 But if I if I'm in Whole Foods, if I'm in Whole Foods, 1268 01:27:56,399 --> 01:28:00,119 right, I can I can use the palm? Okay? Yeah? So 1269 01:28:01,039 --> 01:28:04,560 what would be that if I met Lulu Lemon shopping at the store and I 1270 01:28:04,640 --> 01:28:08,920 go to check out, how can I use check it out? Just before 1271 01:28:08,960 --> 01:28:11,199 you said you just walk out? No, you just walk out and said 1272 01:28:11,239 --> 01:28:14,279 you're if you're checking out, we must be say like I walk in and 1273 01:28:14,319 --> 01:28:15,439 take the jacket and leave like I'm stealing it, but I don't paid for 1274 01:28:15,479 --> 01:28:17,880 it? On gets charged on Amazon. You know what it likely is. 1275 01:28:17,960 --> 01:28:23,119 It's it's facial recognition. So you probably have to register on Amazon. You 1276 01:28:23,239 --> 01:28:25,239 do the face scam like you do for your eye. If you do, 1277 01:28:25,720 --> 01:28:28,760 and then what happens come back when you come back through the store, they 1278 01:28:28,840 --> 01:28:31,279 have the camera, they see your your face and see what you have and 1279 01:28:31,279 --> 01:28:34,439 then boom, they will your Amazon Whole food that Whole Foods. When I 1280 01:28:34,520 --> 01:28:39,960 checked out yesterday last week, and now they've got the poem print thing there. 1281 01:28:40,039 --> 01:28:42,319 Yeah, I look at that, go palem print. Cool. I 1282 01:28:42,319 --> 01:28:45,439 don't think so. The Amazon came out a couple of months ago, we've 1283 01:28:45,439 --> 01:28:48,039 already come over here. Amazon came out with something else about their Prime They're 1284 01:28:48,079 --> 01:28:51,079 going to start ads in twenty twenty four. I think that's something that we 1285 01:28:51,279 --> 01:28:55,520 went a little underreported this week because that's a huge revenue draw for Amazon that 1286 01:28:55,560 --> 01:28:58,359 they don't currently have. Well, what they'll do is they'll have one with 1287 01:28:58,680 --> 01:29:02,039 they'll increase the price if you want ads and most like. But even still, 1288 01:29:03,600 --> 01:29:06,960 what do you mean ads? Because I go on Amazon now and I'll 1289 01:29:08,000 --> 01:29:10,800 get sponsored, sponsored, sponsored, sponsored, you know, before I get 1290 01:29:10,840 --> 01:29:14,279 down to So when you click something, when you click something to watch an 1291 01:29:14,279 --> 01:29:16,479 Amazon right now, what comes on is another Amazon show as an ad? 1292 01:29:16,840 --> 01:29:20,000 What are you talking about? Amazon TV? Prime? I got it all 1293 01:29:20,079 --> 01:29:24,359 right, Well that Prime is all okay, that's a good Prime Video. 1294 01:29:24,399 --> 01:29:27,199 It's what I should say. Okay, yes, Prime Video. So they're 1295 01:29:27,199 --> 01:29:30,560 gonna starts on Prime Video. Yes, I don't know how that's gonna Well 1296 01:29:30,600 --> 01:29:32,800 from the beginning, in the beginning of the shows, it's like going to 1297 01:29:32,880 --> 01:29:40,359 a movie theater and you see ten things. Yeah, it's only similar to 1298 01:29:40,439 --> 01:29:44,159 other weapids go, he got he got his EV garaging. I don't but 1299 01:29:44,199 --> 01:29:49,560 that we're letting him out to span Amazon and everything. Yeah, yeah, 1300 01:29:49,560 --> 01:29:53,439 I'm thinking I guess I'm thinking Amazon. When I was reading the article, 1301 01:29:53,479 --> 01:29:56,680 I was thinking Apple pay is where my mind was when I was reading that 1302 01:29:56,840 --> 01:30:00,520 article. Yeah, where you just walk out, you know what I mean? 1303 01:30:00,560 --> 01:30:01,720 Apple pay? You don't. You have your phone and you just click 1304 01:30:01,720 --> 01:30:04,359 it, hit it. Yeah, but I'm thinking that they're doing they're doing 1305 01:30:04,439 --> 01:30:06,720 something anyway, doesn't it doesn't make sense. We need to find out. 1306 01:30:06,760 --> 01:30:11,079 We need to get down big. On the week it was down like ten 1307 01:30:11,119 --> 01:30:13,840 percent, I think something like that. Yeah. Well you know what people 1308 01:30:13,840 --> 01:30:15,479 always said, what about this cashlist society? I think we're going to get 1309 01:30:15,479 --> 01:30:19,159 there pretty much there. Yeah, it's getting there quickly, all of a 1310 01:30:19,239 --> 01:30:23,600 sudden, all of a sudden. Well, young people don't have checking accounts. 1311 01:30:24,159 --> 01:30:28,680 We when we want to tie an account to a bank, we need 1312 01:30:28,760 --> 01:30:31,640 avoided check. You don't get those anymore. If they have checking accounts, 1313 01:30:31,680 --> 01:30:34,359 they don't have checks. It's different. Yes, they don't have check. 1314 01:30:35,000 --> 01:30:40,960 You have an account, you have but it's not like you have your weekly 1315 01:30:41,039 --> 01:30:43,319 check, your bi weekly checking gear from your work. You don't have and 1316 01:30:43,479 --> 01:30:45,359 so everyone knows we're able to get around that. You asked for a direct 1317 01:30:45,520 --> 01:30:49,479 deposit form from your bank. Right, but twice in the last ten days, 1318 01:30:49,560 --> 01:30:53,399 my wife has given me a bill that has to be paid by check. 1319 01:30:53,640 --> 01:30:55,920 There is no other option. And you can still go to the bank 1320 01:30:55,960 --> 01:31:01,039 and ask for a bill from the two doctors you can call them and put 1321 01:31:01,079 --> 01:31:04,079 it on the credit card. Two different doctors. Well one you could call 1322 01:31:04,159 --> 01:31:06,359 and I called this ring to non hole for ten minutes. I said, 1323 01:31:06,359 --> 01:31:09,520 okay, find out. Okay, but don't say you can't. You have 1324 01:31:09,640 --> 01:31:12,279 to pay a check. But also you could make a case of some soul 1325 01:31:12,359 --> 01:31:15,920 proprietor just don't want to accept credit because their account receivable. I mean, 1326 01:31:15,000 --> 01:31:18,239 they can decide not to accept credit. Health Care will always take it on 1327 01:31:18,279 --> 01:31:21,800 the credit card because they can get paid. Then they don't usually let you 1328 01:31:21,880 --> 01:31:27,279 out out of the place unless you pay, yeah, you know, unless 1329 01:31:27,279 --> 01:31:30,760 they don't know what the bill is. You don't yeah, well, you 1330 01:31:30,800 --> 01:31:32,000 know, there's just some kind of cold pay. And you know, especially 1331 01:31:32,079 --> 01:31:35,680 they're dealing with doctors. You don't until they're submitted to the insurance. You 1332 01:31:35,720 --> 01:31:41,319 don't know what you're home sales tide down thirteen point five percent from last year. 1333 01:31:41,479 --> 01:31:44,399 Existing home sales. Yep, but you know what, it's a caveat 1334 01:31:44,439 --> 01:31:45,880 though. It's a huge thing coming down. It's a huge thing to notice, 1335 01:31:46,000 --> 01:31:48,760 right because if you say just home sales, it's very different because when 1336 01:31:48,760 --> 01:31:54,079 you put the two into separate pieces existing in new sales. New home sales 1337 01:31:54,119 --> 01:31:57,319 are doing fine, all right, it's the existing homes that are continuing. 1338 01:31:57,359 --> 01:32:00,880 However, home builder sentiment what negad for the first time in seven months, 1339 01:32:01,159 --> 01:32:04,399 and there was an interesting chart that said, the last four recessions we've had 1340 01:32:04,760 --> 01:32:10,840 construction a retail construction payrolls have dropped eight to ten percent before the recession occurred. 1341 01:32:11,199 --> 01:32:15,640 Currently, we're right around time for the last four recessions. What preceded 1342 01:32:15,680 --> 01:32:20,720 it was an eight to ten percent drop in retail construction payrolls. So those 1343 01:32:20,760 --> 01:32:26,600 are the construction workers were working on new homes for Okay, so when those 1344 01:32:26,680 --> 01:32:30,359 drop eight to ten percent, a recession is curred right after it. Okay, 1345 01:32:30,479 --> 01:32:32,880 right now we're only at around two percent drop. So that's the number 1346 01:32:32,920 --> 01:32:35,960 to look at, is if we continue to see those construction payrolls decline. 1347 01:32:36,520 --> 01:32:41,399 Obviously, that means the housing sectors declining and there could be rolling over. 1348 01:32:41,479 --> 01:32:43,319 Also, I heard these you know, these funny people are saying, I'm 1349 01:32:43,319 --> 01:32:45,319 gonna wait to sell my home and rates are lower next year. Well guess 1350 01:32:45,359 --> 01:32:47,560 what if rates are lower next year, I means prices are lower. So 1351 01:32:48,560 --> 01:32:53,760 where are you winning? You know it is good. Fed X reported on 1352 01:32:54,399 --> 01:32:58,520 X up five percent of the open on Thursday had reported revenue and that income 1353 01:32:58,560 --> 01:33:01,159 above expectations, and they raise guidance. They raised guidance. I thought, 1354 01:33:01,279 --> 01:33:06,720 really, that is raising guidance often seen as a barometer for the global economy, 1355 01:33:06,840 --> 01:33:11,560 not what the FED wants to hear. The things are good at fed 1356 01:33:11,760 --> 01:33:15,279 X and getting better. Quarter three earning supports are gonna be huge. I 1357 01:33:15,319 --> 01:33:16,680 mean understand I was going to get better. Yes, it might get better 1358 01:33:16,720 --> 01:33:20,479 from where it was because we got holiday coming up. But if if oil 1359 01:33:20,520 --> 01:33:23,920 prices keep going up and none of your prices keep going up, it's not 1360 01:33:23,960 --> 01:33:26,680 going to get better. Doesn't seem odd, But X thinks it will. 1361 01:33:27,159 --> 01:33:30,800 They're seeing a pick up in the global economy because the fact is people just 1362 01:33:30,880 --> 01:33:33,640 won't even buy as much to be shipping, all right, it'll be just 1363 01:33:33,720 --> 01:33:36,720 business shipping. Maybe that picks up because everyone's at home, though I don't 1364 01:33:36,720 --> 01:33:41,359 know. I don't even Some of these things are a mystery. We've oh 1365 01:33:41,479 --> 01:33:46,159 that in six months from now. Well, our guidance was wrong because we 1366 01:33:46,199 --> 01:33:48,600 didn't realize oil prices. We're gonna keep going high. Well, I mean, 1367 01:33:48,640 --> 01:33:54,680 how about the biggest dropping in prices over the last twelve months airline tickets. 1368 01:33:55,479 --> 01:33:59,039 Who's seeing that? Yeah, that's because people planned on the sum of 1369 01:33:59,159 --> 01:34:01,479 vacations from a year a year and a half ago, Dave, and now 1370 01:34:01,560 --> 01:34:04,319 the drops off because of it, and they're trying to get it up. 1371 01:34:04,319 --> 01:34:08,840 They had to ramp up some of the roots, all right, because you 1372 01:34:08,840 --> 01:34:12,239 remember they were getting stuck. They were getting hammered by the by the Department 1373 01:34:12,279 --> 01:34:15,279 of Transportation because of the delays and anything else. And now they're not being 1374 01:34:15,319 --> 01:34:17,720 able to fill up the plane. So they dropped the prices to get people 1375 01:34:17,760 --> 01:34:21,199 going again. So you're seeing the airline tickets drop in price a little bit, 1376 01:34:21,319 --> 01:34:29,359 are you okay? It's not the one you were completed? They but 1377 01:34:29,640 --> 01:34:33,560 they but the whatdy call it? I've seen when I say they dropped fifty 1378 01:34:33,600 --> 01:34:40,239 bucks I've not heard that, so that's good. That's good. Well, 1379 01:34:40,279 --> 01:34:45,279 what's interesting because I was looking at some tickets over Christmas. It's amazing two 1380 01:34:45,399 --> 01:34:48,840 hundred dollars less if you go on Christmas Day. Well, yeah, then 1381 01:34:49,079 --> 01:34:51,159 then if you go. Isn't that how it is every year? Though, 1382 01:34:51,239 --> 01:34:55,680 Dean, That's how it is every year. That's not that's not we're gonna 1383 01:34:55,680 --> 01:34:58,920 go. They're gonna need a fly, yeah, Steve, Christmas Day. 1384 01:34:58,920 --> 01:35:04,640 They're just hanging out fly on Christmas days with people there. That's it. 1385 01:35:05,119 --> 01:35:12,560 That's it. That's the Chinese food on the plane. You get free movies 1386 01:35:12,640 --> 01:35:15,520 and free Chinese A good one. Let's let's take a trip of it, 1387 01:35:15,680 --> 01:35:23,359 and let's send Sandlers eight nights Crush country trip and we'll serve your Chinese food 1388 01:35:23,439 --> 01:35:29,000 and movies. Let's get on the plane half off. That's pretty funny. 1389 01:35:29,199 --> 01:35:31,840 That's funny. Hey, Starbucks lower on Tuesday, guys, after Colin downgraded 1390 01:35:31,920 --> 01:35:36,399 the company sighting worry some trends in China, and they have Nike reporting on 1391 01:35:36,520 --> 01:35:40,600 Thursday, so we'll see how they report on China. Yeah. But I 1392 01:35:40,720 --> 01:35:43,880 was listening to Cramer though, who's has his ear to the ground there and 1393 01:35:44,000 --> 01:35:48,239 it's not a problem. They're overstating the problem with Starbucks because of luck. 1394 01:35:48,359 --> 01:35:51,039 And they always do this, The media always says that they never go down 1395 01:35:51,119 --> 01:35:57,520 and actually look, and they're having absolutely no problems with people lining up buy 1396 01:35:57,560 --> 01:36:00,600 Stubb Starbucks. They're thinking, how many people who uh uh in China? 1397 01:36:00,640 --> 01:36:03,239 Well, what we're talking about there is Lucking Coffee in China, which is 1398 01:36:03,279 --> 01:36:06,319 the largest coffee chain there. Right, Yeah, and they're doing well because 1399 01:36:06,319 --> 01:36:10,960 they're a little cheaper. But you know, cheapness isn't the thing if you 1400 01:36:11,079 --> 01:36:14,920 like Sawbucks better, let's face it. And you can't given your Apple phone 1401 01:36:15,000 --> 01:36:17,319 or work if you're a government employee. But the wait for an iPhone fifteen 1402 01:36:17,439 --> 01:36:21,359 is November. All right, guess what we'll be back next week. Well, 1403 01:36:21,399 --> 01:36:25,399 your money matters been a good show. Call us. We'll see you. 1404 01:36:25,520 --> 01:36:29,239 Sit down, get their free consultation, your risk analysis, all your 1405 01:36:29,319 --> 01:36:31,680 financial plan. You tell us, we'll do it. Be happy, be 1406 01:36:31,840 --> 01:36:39,119 healthy, and let's all strive to be probable. Say it's all a fab