How the Fed and Labor Strikes are Impacting Markets

100:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,799Good morning everybody. It's Sunday morning. It's eight o'clock at seven ninety katus200:00:04,839 --> 00:00:07,719ten. This we'll be the moneyby the show for the next two hours.300:00:07,719 --> 00:00:11,839We will come and talk to youdirectly about what we think it's happening400:00:11,880 --> 00:00:17,359with the markets. It's going ongeopolitically and politically in our nation, and500:00:17,399 --> 00:00:22,399what's going on with these the markets. And not a good week again,600:00:23,239 --> 00:00:29,640not a good month. It's notreally surprising obviously, with being in September.700:00:29,879 --> 00:00:36,759Maybe the velocity of velocity of thedown roof is a little bit more800:00:36,799 --> 00:00:45,079than I kind of expected. Butguess what, it's okay. It's okay900:00:45,159 --> 00:00:51,039because what we have going on rightnow is selling off the mentality changes.1000:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,399And if you've been listening to usmitigating risk, you got Melanie to what1100:00:56,079 --> 00:01:00,000buy at these lower levels than theywere a little while ago. We would1200:01:00,000 --> 00:01:06,040down almost four three percent for theweek across the board, were down six1300:01:06,120 --> 00:01:11,280percent on the knives back for themonth, four point one percent for the1400:01:11,400 --> 00:01:17,239S and P and two percent forthe Dow. We are now only up1500:01:17,280 --> 00:01:21,719twelve percent for the year on theSP five hundred, and the equalated S1600:01:21,799 --> 00:01:27,519ANDP is only at one point onepercent, so you can see markets fluctuate.1700:01:27,640 --> 00:01:33,280Valuations matter. The big news iswhen the market started kind of getting1800:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,959a little itchy and then turned down, was after our Federal Reserve a chairman,1900:01:38,920 --> 00:01:45,319Jerome Powell basically said we're going toraise rates probably again at some time,2000:01:46,359 --> 00:01:49,439and they'll be higher for longer.Well, what has he not said2100:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,439that? That's what I didn't understand. Why the markets rallied and kind of2200:01:53,439 --> 00:01:59,359broke out earlier in the week madeno sense. Now do I think we2300:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,760got a little shout, We canhave a little bit more of a bounce.2400:02:00,840 --> 00:02:08,479We probably could maybe go up twothree percent from here, But we2500:02:08,479 --> 00:02:15,039remember October's were October's or the crashmonths. And I'm not saying it's a2600:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,000crash coming. I'm just saying I'mstaying cautious now. If we do have2700:02:19,039 --> 00:02:23,159a big move back down in Augustin October, I mean I will absolutely2800:02:23,479 --> 00:02:29,000start stepping up because I think thatwe'll have a bounce to probably middle of2900:02:29,039 --> 00:02:34,159December before we have to hear whetheror not he's going to raise interest rates.3000:02:34,159 --> 00:02:36,439What our interest rates doing, whatthe economy is doing. I don't3100:02:36,439 --> 00:02:39,400think the numbers are starting to showup the way they want them, so3200:02:39,439 --> 00:02:45,639they're gonna have to keep raising weights. I mean, there were less people3300:02:45,719 --> 00:02:50,759looking for unemployment, less people thatwere out of work more again this week.3400:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,280And when that happens, the FederalReserve gets concerned and there's u A3500:02:55,639 --> 00:03:02,879W strike does not help things becauseif they're they're fighting for more money,3600:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,960and if they're fighting for more moneyand they get it, everything goes up.3700:03:09,159 --> 00:03:16,120We're trying to fight inflation. It'sabsurd that they don't come out and3800:03:16,159 --> 00:03:20,000just stay hey, right now,it's not the time to be asking for3900:03:20,039 --> 00:03:23,479more money because it just for inflation. So you get more money, what4000:03:23,560 --> 00:03:28,120about everybody else that's not getting moremoney? They can't afford it, So4100:03:28,159 --> 00:03:32,280everyone just becomes very selfish. It'snot like all the workers don't get some4200:03:32,360 --> 00:03:38,000decent money right now. And notagainst going ahead and sharing in profits and4300:03:38,080 --> 00:03:45,120doing things like that and benefits.I think that's a great way for employees4400:03:45,199 --> 00:03:50,120of big corporations to be rewarded.But if you go in there for straight4500:03:50,159 --> 00:03:53,639pay, it's inevitable you're never gonnabe happy. If you're going to a4600:03:53,680 --> 00:04:00,080government job for straight pay, it'sinevitable. You're not gonna be happy.4700:04:01,800 --> 00:04:06,719I'm going to discuss that because it'svery important to understand benefits and the cost4800:04:06,800 --> 00:04:12,400of benefits versus just wages in yourpockets. This is the money amount of4900:04:12,439 --> 00:04:15,199show and as you know, it'sbrought to you by Greenberg Financial Group.5000:04:15,599 --> 00:04:18,399Greenberg Financial Group is both the registeredinvestment advisory and they broke a dealer,5100:04:18,800 --> 00:04:23,240which means we're registered with the SEC. Members of Finland. Members are CIPPIC.5200:04:24,000 --> 00:04:30,360We talk a lot about ideas,strategies. Everything has risk, Everything5300:04:30,439 --> 00:04:32,839has risks. That's why as soonas you ever speak to us, when5400:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,839you come and talk to us,we always talk about your risk tolerance and5500:04:36,879 --> 00:04:40,639then we try to match it upwith your portfolio and what kind of risk5600:04:40,680 --> 00:04:46,519you have in your portfolio. Thatdoesn't mean everything always works out. That's5700:04:46,519 --> 00:04:51,279why you know what your risk portfoliois, more balanced, the more conservative,5800:04:53,759 --> 00:04:58,879the smaller allocations, the more spreadout you are, the more type5900:04:59,000 --> 00:05:04,040more fixed income you're in. It'sa lot different saying hey, when the6000:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,759market's going up like last week andwe asked, hell, yeah, ustunce6100:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,279would have been better because we're breakingout. We're going to forty five hundred6200:05:11,319 --> 00:05:16,519plus and now you know at almostforty three hundred. That's a big move6300:05:16,560 --> 00:05:21,360off. That's one hundred and almostone hundred and someone points in the SMP6400:05:21,480 --> 00:05:30,120in one week. Hundred and twentypoints. That's a big move down.6500:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,959One hundred thirty points in the SMP. Five hundred is a big move down6600:05:34,360 --> 00:05:39,680in one week. Well, I'veseen it in one day, but I'm6700:05:39,680 --> 00:05:45,399just talking about normal times. Sowhere do we go here? I think6800:05:45,439 --> 00:05:48,399that we might have a some supportcoming in pretty soon, and if we6900:05:48,439 --> 00:05:54,720don't, well we'll go down toforty two hundred, remember ultimately, and7000:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,519I think it's more next year's secondquarter, third quarter next year, when7100:05:58,519 --> 00:06:04,399the economic numbers are just now showingus that we are going to being a7200:06:04,480 --> 00:06:08,959slowdown and earnings aren't going to bethere, in evaluations aren't going to be7300:06:08,959 --> 00:06:12,240there, And that's when we cango back into the mid three thousands again,7400:06:12,319 --> 00:06:17,319which would be a very big movedown. You're talking twenty thirty percent7500:06:17,439 --> 00:06:20,839down, if that's possible. Ihope we haven't seen some signals of that7600:06:20,920 --> 00:06:26,079beforehand. See, the problem isthey want inflation down, but our economy7700:06:26,319 --> 00:06:29,920is going, is still going,and inflation is going and we're not seeing7800:06:29,920 --> 00:06:34,800that slowdown except in certain areas likeretail. And that's real simple. People7900:06:34,879 --> 00:06:41,199can't buy stuff if they're paying formore higher prices for gas and energy,8000:06:41,639 --> 00:06:45,199and if they're paying for more pricesand food, and if they're paying for8100:06:45,279 --> 00:06:50,639more prices and rent, then you'renot gonna be able to have the retail8200:06:50,720 --> 00:06:57,759buying. The necessary needs are costingmore. That's why they're trying to get8300:06:57,759 --> 00:07:03,160inflation down. But they blame everybodybody else, everybody else. Why don't8400:07:03,160 --> 00:07:08,720they just sit back and say,what is the number one thing, the8500:07:09,000 --> 00:07:15,360number one thing we can do rightnow to bring prices down collectively as Democrats8600:07:15,399 --> 00:07:24,519and Republicans, And that is toput pressure on this White House to open8700:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,800up the pipelines, open up thedrilling, Let us drill here, let8800:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,480us have our own oil energy,let's be energy dependent. How many times8900:07:32,480 --> 00:07:40,959have we told you that there's morecoal fired plants, coal fired plants in9000:07:41,040 --> 00:07:46,639China and India opening up than wehave in the entire United States. This9100:07:46,800 --> 00:07:57,879whole thing about climate control is reallypeople control. We know that we feel9200:07:57,879 --> 00:08:01,480it. They want to control us. They want this excess money by always9300:08:01,480 --> 00:08:07,759talking about the climate, as ifwe don't want better climate, but if9400:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,319you don't get China and India andPakistan and everybody else, Russia, Middle9500:08:11,319 --> 00:08:18,720East, North Korea on board,then we're fighting an uphill battle that's hard9600:08:18,759 --> 00:08:24,079to win, and we are goingto suffer the consequence it because we are9700:08:24,199 --> 00:08:31,000spending more on our energy a food. Remember if oil prices go up,9800:08:31,000 --> 00:08:33,360guess prices go up, Diesel pricesgo up, and it costs more to9900:08:33,600 --> 00:08:39,039do what run your electricity. Itcosts more to drive your car, It10000:08:39,080 --> 00:08:43,799costs more to eat because the freight, the travel, the trails, the10100:08:43,879 --> 00:08:52,799airlines, the trucks all are beingmore expensive to bring things from one place10200:08:52,799 --> 00:08:56,120to another. So by the timeit hits your shelves in the grocery store,10300:08:56,759 --> 00:09:05,320the prices continue to go higher.That's inflation. The only good part10400:09:05,440 --> 00:09:11,960of this inflation is that interest ratesare finally at a point that retired people,10500:09:11,039 --> 00:09:15,000people that have cash don't have totake a huge amount of risk to10600:09:15,039 --> 00:09:20,360get over five percent. It's theonly good thing. But all those people10700:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,399that you know really don't care aboutthe economy, don't care about it.10800:09:24,399 --> 00:09:31,639You know what you're suffering too.You can't get five percent because you don't10900:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,919have money to put away, soeverything's costing more. So what do you11000:09:35,960 --> 00:09:43,840do You want more wages? Youthink you deserve more, well, some11100:09:43,879 --> 00:09:50,799people do. But these union strikes, whether it's teachers union, United auto11200:09:50,840 --> 00:09:56,440workers union, airlines, unions,you name it, all it does is11300:09:56,519 --> 00:10:01,919hurt the economy. And then whenthat doesn't happen, the government union of11400:10:01,039 --> 00:10:07,600saying we need to raise minimum wagesso everyone can have a fair wage.11500:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,000It's just tax the rich to beable to pay for all this. You're11600:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,159a fair share, remember, exceptwhen it comes to his son. He11700:10:16,200 --> 00:10:24,200doesn't really have to pay his fairshare. We don't realize, and maybe11800:10:24,240 --> 00:10:30,200now you will, because I'd lovefor you to go back to my eight11900:10:30,399 --> 00:10:35,000ten. Even more than that showswhen I kept talking about minimum wage going12000:10:35,080 --> 00:10:41,080up in all these fast food places, it will put an inflation that we12100:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,159spin on everything, and we're notgoing to be able to hand it because12200:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,879the prices will be too high.McDonald's will be too high, fast food12300:10:46,879 --> 00:10:50,519places will be too high. Everythingwill be too high. That's what inflation12400:10:50,600 --> 00:11:01,840does. We now see credit cardbalances in the trillions. We see savings12500:11:01,879 --> 00:11:11,039getting depleted across the board. Wesee the workforce sort of low, which12600:11:11,120 --> 00:11:16,879is the only reason certain people thatactually earn it will get more money because12700:11:16,879 --> 00:11:20,039it's so hard to find good employeestoday. You talk to almost anyone that12800:11:20,159 --> 00:11:26,440owns a small firm, small company, medium sized content company. It's very12900:11:26,480 --> 00:11:35,159difficult to find employees that are goodand so also with the mind friend that13000:11:35,159 --> 00:11:39,720they'll stick around. One thing thatpeople don't realize is the cost of training.13100:11:41,320 --> 00:11:46,639You bring somebody in, you spendall the money on training them.13200:11:46,799 --> 00:11:50,159Your father gets up to snuff ayear and a half, two years,13300:11:50,159 --> 00:11:54,480maybe three years later, depending onthe business, and then he thinks he13400:11:54,480 --> 00:11:58,720has knows it all and wants moremoney and leaves, and you got to13500:11:58,759 --> 00:12:01,759do it over and over again.Now, big corporations, they absorb it.13600:12:01,759 --> 00:12:09,440It is absolutely part of their businessplan, always training, always filling13700:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,799in, always hiring, because peopleleaving. On the other side, smaller13800:12:13,879 --> 00:12:18,960medium businesses, hell no, thatcosts them a lot of money. Restaurant13900:12:18,960 --> 00:12:26,039turnover costs them a lot of money. Extreme amount. Training is very very14000:12:26,159 --> 00:12:31,519expensive. So let's now move onto what everybody wants its benefits. They14100:12:31,559 --> 00:12:37,600want their health benefit, they wantvision benefit. They they they want country14200:12:37,600 --> 00:12:43,519club benefits. They want you namethe benefits. They want it that costs14300:12:43,600 --> 00:12:50,039money, especially when people become retiredand everything. It costs money to the14400:12:50,080 --> 00:12:54,000corporation. It's just not about yourwage. Now you're going to increase your14500:12:54,000 --> 00:13:03,320wages, that's a cost. Thebenefits all go up, the profit sharing,14600:13:03,480 --> 00:13:09,440their four one K match, allthat stuff goes up. And all14700:13:09,480 --> 00:13:13,440you hear is during good times,the CEOs and make it too much money.14800:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,759The top managements make it too muchmoney. This is corporate greed.14900:13:16,840 --> 00:13:24,120You hear this out of Bernie Sandersall the time. But yet it's okay15000:13:24,159 --> 00:13:31,039for him to make millions of dollarsin the Senate and doesn't even work except15100:13:31,080 --> 00:13:35,759for what he does. How's heeven worth millions tens of millions of dollars,15200:13:35,639 --> 00:13:41,799Bernie Sanders, the hypocrisy on greedand the spoons out of their mouth15300:13:45,360 --> 00:13:50,840is horrible. There should be noreason why if you work hard, put15400:13:50,840 --> 00:13:54,519yourself in position, and move upthe ladders, that you can't get paid15500:13:54,519 --> 00:14:01,799the money that someone's willing to payyou. If you walk work for Ford,15600:14:01,919 --> 00:14:05,360and you work your way in andthe board of directors and everybody else15700:14:05,360 --> 00:14:11,799says you're gonna be my CEO orGM and you're making nine ten twenty thirty15800:14:11,840 --> 00:14:16,039forty million dollars. Whatever it is, and believe me, it's tied in15900:14:16,639 --> 00:14:20,840to success most of it. Howwell is the company doing, how well16000:14:20,879 --> 00:14:24,200are the profits doing? How well'sgoing up? And for everyone, the16100:14:24,279 --> 00:14:31,320media and the White House and corporategreed. Meanwhile, they take care of16200:14:31,320 --> 00:14:35,440maternity leaves, they take care ofsick pay, they take care of long16300:14:35,559 --> 00:14:39,399term care, they take care ofshort term care, they take care of16400:14:39,440 --> 00:14:41,720medical care. They give you aprofit care, and they give you bonuses.16500:14:41,759 --> 00:14:46,080They give you the things that youget. What they don't do is16600:14:46,120 --> 00:14:50,080give you more money other than whatscale you're in. It's the way they're16700:14:50,120 --> 00:14:54,200able to do it. If youdon't like it, don't work for a16800:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,919corporation. You want more money inyour pocket because you think you know what16900:14:56,960 --> 00:15:01,039you can do, do it.You're not gonna get benefits. You're not17000:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,960Many people don't have four one Kplans, which means they're not all they17100:15:05,000 --> 00:15:11,159do and they're not matching small companiesor healthcare. I keep running into people17200:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,240that there's no healthcare. They're workingfor more small companies. So you get17300:15:13,240 --> 00:15:18,879a few extra bucks, the chancesare you aren't saving the money you are17400:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,799in having healthcare, you're not doingany of those things. If you're barely17500:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,720getting buy and you need extra money, that's what happens. So then when17600:15:26,759 --> 00:15:31,679you stick these ordered workers and givethem more money, not just ten or17700:15:31,720 --> 00:15:37,320twenty percent rays, but they wantforty percent rays and they want to work17800:15:37,360 --> 00:15:41,960four days a week and get samesame pay and that work forty hours.17900:15:45,000 --> 00:15:50,200That, in my book, isridiculous. You want to work less,18000:15:50,200 --> 00:15:54,159get paid less. You want tobe a millionaire, save your money and18100:15:54,159 --> 00:16:03,480don't outspend it. Let the compoundingraise your money. Teach that. Teach18200:16:03,600 --> 00:16:10,399that to people. That's why Ithink that profits that the foe on K18300:16:10,600 --> 00:16:17,240plans should not allow you to takeout money. People use that as a18400:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,600savings account and use it to payoff things, and then they pay the18500:16:21,639 --> 00:16:27,039penalties and they pay those things becausethat's the one place they saved. It18600:16:27,039 --> 00:16:33,440should only be for hardships, periodhardships, medical hardships. Maybe even buying18700:16:33,480 --> 00:16:40,279a household is okay with me,but not just taking out loans, because18800:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,840to pay off your credit cards,that's the adverse of what you want to18900:16:44,879 --> 00:16:55,559do. And I'm watching what's goingon everywhere, and instead of helping the19000:16:55,639 --> 00:17:02,399middle class and the lower middle classand the people in the poverty and getting19100:17:02,440 --> 00:17:06,599them to come up to the upperplaying field. We continue to throw money19200:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,720down to the lower playing field andtell you what'll take care of you.19300:17:11,039 --> 00:17:14,359Here's checks. You're right. Youdon't have to pay for school, you19400:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,440don't have to pay your school loansback, you don't have to pay medical19500:17:17,480 --> 00:17:18,880bills, you don't have to payany of those stuff. And by the19600:17:18,880 --> 00:17:26,480way, we'll give you assistance too. If we're giving assistance to able bodied19700:17:26,519 --> 00:17:30,319people, they need to be goingthrough a job training type of deal and19800:17:30,359 --> 00:17:37,480get a job. Put the moneytowards that. Help the mid and small19900:17:37,559 --> 00:17:44,839companies find good employees because they're trainedgiving sentives to people to do stuff.20000:17:45,640 --> 00:17:49,640Change the immigration system. Our boarderis out of control. And I know20100:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,119it's out of control now, notonly because you're down here and you see20200:17:53,119 --> 00:17:59,000it and stuff. It's because you'relistening to all these Democratic states complain on20300:17:59,039 --> 00:18:07,039how they can't afford ten thousand peoplein their neighborhoods. New York's going berserk.20400:18:07,200 --> 00:18:08,960They can't afford it, Well,why are we supposed to afford it?20500:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,440And the White House launches on anddoes nothing but somehow they get money20600:18:15,480 --> 00:18:21,319to those states. Use the COVIDmoney. You haven't used that. You20700:18:21,880 --> 00:18:26,039got all that extra money New Jersey, Connecticut, New York, California,20800:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,599and then they spend it on thingsto give away for votes. That constantly20900:18:30,640 --> 00:18:36,559a buying votes, constantly buying votes. Run America like a corporation. Run21000:18:36,559 --> 00:18:40,920it like a business. Let's geta profit. Will be so strong and21100:18:41,000 --> 00:18:52,000so stable, people would be happy. You know, growing up, you21200:18:52,119 --> 00:18:59,119had a home, your parents worked, they had dinner, they had that21300:18:59,200 --> 00:19:04,240they were able to come over.I had no idea, you know,21400:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,559which was you know, you're growingup a long island in Levittown. We21500:19:07,599 --> 00:19:11,559had a color TV, we hadan above ground pool. We were excited.21600:19:11,559 --> 00:19:15,680I had a new baseball mitten.I had a ten speed bike.21700:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,640I thought that was great. Iftears drives started driving up to those that21800:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,920are in New York, understand thislong island, the north Shore, and21900:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,480you see old money, the greatNecks, the sands points, the man22000:19:30,559 --> 00:19:36,799hassets. That was money, allgated things. You never even know anyone22100:19:36,880 --> 00:19:44,720up there. That was a wholedifferent world. But I never never looked22200:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,839out and go, wow, I'mpoor. They I should have some of22300:19:48,880 --> 00:19:55,400their money. That's not fair thatthey have the money. No. First22400:19:55,400 --> 00:19:59,039one in my car, my wholefamily to go to college. My parents22500:19:59,079 --> 00:20:04,400made sure they saved money to putto pay for my tuition. I had22600:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,319to pay room and board, Ihad to get out loans. I had22700:20:07,359 --> 00:20:08,480to work, I had to playsports. I had to do all that22800:20:08,519 --> 00:20:15,240stuff. There was no work ethicthat was instilled in me. Maybe it22900:20:15,319 --> 00:20:18,079was from the paper out or mowingthe lawns, a shoveling the snow.23000:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,680But we always had some money todo some things we wanted to do.23100:20:23,039 --> 00:20:26,759We wanted to go roll the skatingwith your friends. Oh, I had23200:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,599a couple of bucks. I wasable to go to the movies. Whatever23300:20:29,599 --> 00:20:37,160it was. My hand was neverout. People don't understand this anymore.23400:20:37,519 --> 00:20:41,079And then when you did, yousaved it. This is the amount of23500:20:41,079 --> 00:20:45,000money. You pay your bills,you put it in your vacation fund,23600:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,839you put it in your education fund, and you don't overspend. What we23700:20:49,920 --> 00:20:56,119have done to the American person fromby today pay later. It's ridiculous.23800:20:57,279 --> 00:21:00,279They think there's no interest, soit's great. You don't think the price23900:21:00,400 --> 00:21:06,000is higher with the interests included.And then you buy today yourselves all so24000:21:06,039 --> 00:21:08,039it's thirty bucks a month. Thenyou buy something else fifty bucks a month.24100:21:08,079 --> 00:21:11,440Oh, I need that one hundredand fifty bucks. Before you know24200:21:11,480 --> 00:21:12,880it, it's five hundred dollars amonth that you should be putting away.24300:21:14,039 --> 00:21:17,119And you keep buying stuff and forthe next few years you got that payment.24400:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,799You never get ahead of the game. And then if you do get24500:21:19,839 --> 00:21:25,160ahead of the game, the moneythat goes away, the money that pleas24600:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,400put away. And now you geta raise. Now you get a raise.24700:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,960You know what people do, Theyspend it. Take half of that24800:21:32,039 --> 00:21:34,359money that you get as a raiseand put it until you fill up your24900:21:34,359 --> 00:21:41,119four in one K plan. Maximizeyour retirement stuff. So when you get25000:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,079to the age and you're only goingto get twenty five fifteen hundred and three25100:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,880thousand dollars and you have nothing else. You're not only getting social Security,25200:21:49,119 --> 00:21:55,960you're getting other money sent to you. Don't be that person, and if25300:21:56,000 --> 00:22:00,039you are, make sure you teachyour young ones not to be. Education25400:22:00,119 --> 00:22:04,160is the most important thing. Justbecause you start off with nothing doesn't mean25500:22:04,200 --> 00:22:10,720you can't be self sustained. Andthat's what's going on with our country right25600:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,680now we should be self sustaining energy. We should be exporting oil, not25700:22:17,480 --> 00:22:22,079importing oil. We should be theking up deciding what prices. Do you25800:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,720know that our reserves it is downto one of the lowest levels it's ever25900:22:25,759 --> 00:22:30,400been ever, three hundred and twelvemillion barrels, I think they said,26000:22:30,799 --> 00:22:33,519is what we have now? Threehundred and twelve billion. We were all26100:22:33,519 --> 00:22:37,079like, up at nine hundred,he's been draining, draining, draining,26200:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,359draining, draining, And what happenedto buy him back when we were at26300:22:40,400 --> 00:22:45,079seventy seventy one? Did they lieto us? But not one media person26400:22:45,119 --> 00:22:51,440would check that out, not one. If God forbid, there was a26500:22:51,480 --> 00:22:56,480world problem and we had to sustainourselves, how are we going to get26600:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,160our oil up and running quick enoughto do what we need to do for26700:23:00,200 --> 00:23:07,599ourselves and allies? Remember, whenpeople are starving and need they will take26800:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,079it from anyone they want. That'show people get in trouble. When someone26900:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,920needs money and they don't have any, they go to loan sharks. And27000:23:15,000 --> 00:23:19,240what does that do? It spilesYou're into problems and real problems and going27100:23:19,279 --> 00:23:25,319down the drain you usually never getout of. Oh it's temporary existence that27200:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,920no, it's not so right nowwe're all markets. So I'm gonna talk27300:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,680a lot more about it in thenext hour and a half. There's vulnerability27400:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,160between now and a year and ahalf. How far down I don't know.27500:23:40,079 --> 00:23:41,039And every time if you say that, next thing, you know,27600:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,480something happens. They go high.Yes they reserved, if they resolved the27700:23:45,799 --> 00:23:49,799uaw the track, you can goup. Interest rates stop going up.27800:23:51,039 --> 00:23:52,480The markets can go up. Therecould be a lot of things that cause27900:23:52,519 --> 00:23:56,680it go up. But once itruns out of steam because we don't have28000:23:56,799 --> 00:24:02,920enough money to keep putting new moneyin, because we're in a quantitative tightening,28100:24:03,200 --> 00:24:07,519not easing situation that's there. Andwhen they were lower rates, they28200:24:07,559 --> 00:24:11,079start lowering rates, which everyone isexpecting. It sometimes gets what's gonna happen?28300:24:11,559 --> 00:24:14,680That means we are falling off thecliff. And when we're in a28400:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,119recession, we'll be back. Ican't tell you how much I appreciate that28500:24:18,160 --> 00:24:22,359you guys listen and call and comesee us, and those of who do28600:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,359business with us, that's fantastic.We'll be right back. It is the28700:24:26,359 --> 00:24:45,400money Matty Show say. It's alla welcome back. Everybody Sunday Morning Money28800:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,279Matty Show, Dave, Dylan Todd, and myself. Dam We'll talk to28900:24:49,279 --> 00:24:52,799you for the next hour and ahalf. We'll talk a lot about the29000:24:52,839 --> 00:24:55,559markets. Obviously, this week wasnot good. Last week was not good.29100:24:55,559 --> 00:24:59,400September it is not good. It'sweird how this happens. You know,29200:24:59,519 --> 00:25:04,039it's not It's not always that way, but most times when the market's29300:25:04,039 --> 00:25:07,240full it's August, September, October, yeah it is, but they usually29400:25:07,279 --> 00:25:11,079set up a good buying opportunity tothe end of the year when this happens.29500:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,000Can't say it's gonna happen. Itnot happen, but it's kind of29600:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,920getting stretched again. The only newsthat was out there interest rates are gonna29700:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,720stay higher for longer. We knowthat. Don't you find it interesting that29800:25:23,759 --> 00:25:27,559the market appears shocked at that.We've been talking about that for a week29900:25:27,960 --> 00:25:32,319on the show, that interest ratesare going to go higher. They're gonna30000:25:32,319 --> 00:25:36,359stay higher longer. The thing whenPowell said that he's not going to raise30100:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,200rates, but more rate hikes arecoming, I thought, yeah, that's30200:25:38,319 --> 00:25:42,000I know, and everybody went,but here's the thing he's saying that to30300:25:42,079 --> 00:25:45,240keep the door open. I wishhe would say right now, we don't30400:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,519want to raise rates. We wantto see what's happening. We see we30500:25:48,559 --> 00:25:51,319see it on both sides. Wesee some months that we have inflation going30600:25:51,359 --> 00:25:55,000down, but on the other sidewe see some the unemployment numbers. If30700:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,519we have to raise rates, we'regoing to do it. The one thing30800:25:56,559 --> 00:25:59,839I can say to you, though, is we'll probably not going to be30900:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,119own rates for a while. Golden'sacts pretty good firm, right, yeah,31000:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,680mindy Goldman SACS. As the Fedsdone raising rates period, Yeah,31100:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,440done raising rates, Golden SACS.Now, I'm guessing their theory is that31200:26:11,440 --> 00:26:18,119the market or the economy is goingto continue to slow, but at a31300:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,359faster pace. That's what the FEDwants. The FED wants, the Fed31400:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,720likes the way the economy is slowing, because it is slowing, but they'd31500:26:25,759 --> 00:26:29,440like it to slow at a fasterpace. But even with its slowing,31600:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,119we still have a positive GDP number, no question. In fact, wasn't31700:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,359it the Fed that raised it fromone point one to two point one exactly?31800:26:36,440 --> 00:26:40,240And their initial reading was so interestingwhen the dot plots came out,31900:26:40,279 --> 00:26:44,400and what their expectations were because initiallythe market did not react on the sell32000:26:44,440 --> 00:26:45,440off. It was kind of holdingin there, and then all of a32100:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,920sudden, in the middle of Jerome'spress conference, you just see this this32200:26:51,039 --> 00:26:53,200sell off occur. And I don'tknow if there was a certain question that32300:26:53,279 --> 00:26:57,880spooke to Martin's markets, but itseemed like Powell was not as consistent with32400:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,319all of this other fed met memberson the dot plots. It seems like32500:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,240he is a little more hawkish thanwhat the dot plots were showing. That32600:27:04,279 --> 00:27:07,799was a little surprising to the market. Friday, it was kind of interesting32700:27:07,839 --> 00:27:11,200after a very weak Thursday. Ofcourse, it started on Wednesday, Dean32800:27:11,599 --> 00:27:15,279Thursday got was the worst day ofthe week, and then Friday the market32900:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,160opens up higher and actually starts togain some momentum. And we know from33000:27:19,200 --> 00:27:23,359doing this for a long time thatyou don't have a huge down day followed33100:27:23,359 --> 00:27:27,440by an up opening that holds itjust it just doesn't well, yeah,33200:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,160two down days in a row.Yeah, but you don't have a big33300:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,319down day like Thursday and then haveFriday or the market opens up in a33400:27:33,319 --> 00:27:36,880way we'll go to the upside.That just doesn't happen. Yeah, more33500:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,039often than not, it'll open upand then it'll be a sell off,33600:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,240especially going into a weekend. Twoand it took a whole day until the33700:27:41,319 --> 00:27:44,680end of the day on Friday,and finally at the end of the day33800:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,200the down one hundred sp downtown exactly. Yeah, Hey, another reason too33900:27:48,279 --> 00:27:52,359Coldman Sachs might be saying that theFED might be done raising races because they34000:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,680came out an interesting thing about creditcard debt issues with these credit card companies34100:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,240seeing the highest rate, the rackingup the highest losses at the fast pace34200:28:00,279 --> 00:28:03,680in almost thirty years, which meansthey're having more people be delinquent on their34300:28:03,759 --> 00:28:07,480monthly payments. And these pm we'restill seeing credit car already increases. There34400:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,200are the debt. It's over atrillion dollars for the first time ever.34500:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,279They're seeing this go up from threepoint three percent or three point six percent.34600:28:15,279 --> 00:28:18,279They don't see it stopping until aboutfive percent of delinquent payments. So34700:28:18,319 --> 00:28:22,119people are still racking up debt,so they're gonna have to stop paying,34800:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,640which might slow the economy down initself event eventually run out of credit the34900:28:26,640 --> 00:28:27,799buying power rate well, exactly,and that's what they're saying. That's probably35000:28:27,839 --> 00:28:30,279where they're getting that idea from thatthey're going to be done raising rates because35100:28:30,279 --> 00:28:33,440all these people have this credit carddebt that eventually they can't go buy new35200:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,640things. They got to pay thisoff before they can do anything, or35300:28:36,680 --> 00:28:37,599they just don't and they have nomoney, they go broke. Well,35400:28:37,599 --> 00:28:41,799it's also another problem, okay,and he knows that when we happened in35500:28:41,880 --> 00:28:47,640the spring, right, you raiserates, you're creating problems for banks when35600:28:47,640 --> 00:28:51,200you raise them too fast because theirloans on the books are not going up35700:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,240that fast. Two expenses are goingup. They can't not one that whatever35800:28:53,279 --> 00:28:57,039money they're bringing in to give outloans, they have to pay more money35900:28:57,039 --> 00:29:00,400for it. It's a real problem. A big bank you can spread the36000:29:00,519 --> 00:29:07,000risk medium size, which is whathappened, and lower and smaller banks problems36100:29:07,079 --> 00:29:10,400all you just don't end up givingout any loans. And to that point,36200:29:10,400 --> 00:29:15,000the FED has been increasing rates ata very fast pace. And the36300:29:15,119 --> 00:29:18,440idea is there's a lack to theimpacts that are actually going to be felt36400:29:18,440 --> 00:29:22,160on the economy that they're finally goingto hit the economy. Oxford Economics pretty36500:29:22,200 --> 00:29:26,000good firm. They're not a firm, but it's a school of thought.36600:29:26,079 --> 00:29:29,400Right, the maximum impact of thefed's tightening, they say, is going36700:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,440to be felt over the next coupleof quarters, the quarter four of twenty36800:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,960three, quarter one of twenty four, and so that's something to look at36900:29:36,000 --> 00:29:41,079two where we might actually see someas Goldman Sachs as actual increase of decreasing37000:29:41,119 --> 00:29:45,400of the economy growth. One ofthe things I do, as just a37100:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,319matter of course, is when Italk to a businessman, a self employed37200:29:49,359 --> 00:29:55,440person, I'll always ask him how'sbusiness. It's just carried how's business?37300:29:55,480 --> 00:30:02,279And I'm hearing across the board businessis great. Skill from from general contractors37400:30:02,319 --> 00:30:06,000it was in our office today,to a buddy of mine that does specialized37500:30:06,039 --> 00:30:11,960concrete products, to a restaurant tourI talked to last week. Everyone says37600:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,160business is FED. Does not wantto hear that. Yeah, FED does37700:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,119not want to hear the business isgood and the GDP is going from one37800:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,559point one to two point one.Well, it depends what business too.37900:30:21,559 --> 00:30:25,039I mean, technology has been sellinghas been laying off people. Right,38000:30:26,359 --> 00:30:29,640you start seeing more people. Theone thing I've been hearing from people their38100:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,000own businesses, they're not hiring.They might not be laying off people yet,38200:30:33,039 --> 00:30:37,799but they're not hiring, and theydon't force sea hiring in the near38300:30:37,880 --> 00:30:42,920future. And that's because they realizethat they can see a slowdown possibly coming38400:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,200and they don't want to be stuckpaying more salaries and training and do all38500:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,839that stuff unless they need to.I'm absolutely hearing that exact thing. We're38600:30:52,880 --> 00:30:57,160not seeing the help wanted signs onevery single building anymore. Yeah, I38700:30:57,160 --> 00:31:02,079mean, the vacancies are definitely arrowed, but there is still more job postings38800:31:02,079 --> 00:31:06,000than their art labors. And I'malso hearing from from friends who are working38900:31:06,079 --> 00:31:08,720that they're doing the job of twoor three people, you know, so39000:31:10,119 --> 00:31:11,839we have to because you give themmore money out Wages have gone up.39100:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,920Yes, you're gonna expect more frompeople. It's amazing how much more people39200:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,599can do that want to work.No, it's gonna be interesting is if39300:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,960California passes that law with raising minimumways of twenty dollars for the fast food39400:31:23,039 --> 00:31:26,519chains, if they start laying offa bunch of employees and just go with39500:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,359robots or just do it automated andhave one employee, if that's going to39600:31:30,440 --> 00:31:34,720increase the unemployment a lot. Well, and McDonald's was down last week because39700:31:34,759 --> 00:31:40,039of that dealing you, the CaliforniaState Senate passed a bill to raise the39800:31:40,079 --> 00:31:42,880minimum waste to twenty bucks an hourfor fast food workers. I remember he's39900:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,759kidding talking. Yeah, I know, he just explaining it, Yeah exactly.40000:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,400I'm just giving details, yeah exactly, And we talked about it last40100:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,359week. But yeah, those arethe details of it. And that's why40200:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,440if they start firing employees because Ijust can't afford twenty alls an hour for40300:31:53,519 --> 00:31:57,319ten employees. Instead, they'll havethree and use machines to just cook the40400:31:57,519 --> 00:32:01,200food, and they oversee the machines, that's going to increase unemployment. One40500:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,119of my clients just got back froma trip to England and they said they40600:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,920were in a McDonald's in London andthere were the placeless packed. They said40700:32:08,960 --> 00:32:13,839there were four employees, Three werecooking food, one was calling out numbers.40800:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,880You wanted food, get to thekiosk. And then and Dylan to40900:32:17,039 --> 00:32:21,680that point as well. Indeed,came out with report last week that says41000:32:21,839 --> 00:32:24,440the higher the odds are that ajob can be done remotely, the greater41100:32:24,559 --> 00:32:30,000its potential exposure to JENI driven change. So for these people that are working41200:32:30,119 --> 00:32:34,480from home. Those jobs are easilyable to be replaced through AI, and41300:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,200so that could be another increase ofunemployment rate, is if those people are41400:32:38,359 --> 00:32:43,440replaced with just AI. Well,wait, we know from Dean that the41500:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,680wage inflation is extremely stubborn. Dean, you talked about this a year ago,41600:32:47,359 --> 00:32:52,480that wage inflation is extremely stubborn.Automation is one of the things that41700:32:52,559 --> 00:32:57,680can help break that break that cycle. October six is the next Labor report,41800:32:57,759 --> 00:32:59,880and that's gonna be a real bigdot, a point for the Fed41900:33:00,119 --> 00:33:02,720to see where we are currently.And then Friday is coming. Friday,42000:33:02,880 --> 00:33:07,720we have the PC report, theinflation, a couple of big reports.42100:33:07,799 --> 00:33:09,759I mean, I'll just give youthe perspective from an owner of a firm42200:33:09,960 --> 00:33:16,039right and different businesses I own.If you feel there's a slow down coming,42300:33:16,440 --> 00:33:21,400you see that you're going to slowdown your revenues, You're not apt42400:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,039to step up and be giving wages, increases and bonuses right now because you42500:33:24,079 --> 00:33:28,079feel like you have to keep thecash because you've gone through it before,42600:33:28,839 --> 00:33:30,680you know. But when things thatyou're having a good year, and this42700:33:30,799 --> 00:33:36,079is happening across America, everyone expectsmore money and if they don't get the42800:33:36,079 --> 00:33:38,079money. They're getting upset. Butboy, when things go down, they42900:33:38,119 --> 00:33:42,480don't expect to get less money.Yeah, and that's where that's where the43000:33:42,599 --> 00:33:45,880problem is. And you know,and that's why you always have that split43100:33:45,960 --> 00:33:51,160between management and and and and workers. You know. Speaking of which Ford,43200:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,000uh you saw it probably saw onFriday, the UAW is going to43300:33:54,039 --> 00:33:59,960expand their strikes against GM and Stillantis, which is I guess Dodge Nowler,43400:34:00,200 --> 00:34:05,599Yeah, that could go, butnot Ford. Ford is, according to43500:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,639the president of the UAW, Fordis serious about coming to an agreement.43600:34:10,000 --> 00:34:14,519They're not going to strike the Fone fifty plant, which was which was43700:34:14,599 --> 00:34:17,760one of the big concerns. That'stheir big money maker. So we'll see.43800:34:19,119 --> 00:34:22,719And what they're using, the UAWpresident's using what Ford is saying yes43900:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,440to against GM and Silantis, sayingFord is doing this. You guys got44000:34:27,519 --> 00:34:30,760to do this, and until youdo, we're gonna keep increasing our strikes.44100:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,800And that's why they're going to thirtyeight more plants or thirty eight more44200:34:34,039 --> 00:34:37,360parts and distribution locations, which isn'twhere they assemble the actual car, so44300:34:37,400 --> 00:34:42,679that's not gonna be hurt. Whatthis is gonna hurt is your repair time.44400:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,800If like the dealerships can't get therepair the parts where this comes from,44500:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,960that's what's gonna start taking longer.So it's gonna hit people rather than44600:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,880just get a new car assembled,it's gonna hurt people who are trying to44700:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,519get their car repaired and the dealershipsin towns in different across the country.44800:34:55,679 --> 00:35:01,559Interestingly, Ford has the most UAWworkers, the most union workers. You44900:35:01,599 --> 00:35:05,880know, people don't remember getting it. Was it not long ago. GM.45000:35:05,960 --> 00:35:10,840When bankrupt, you can do theycan agree to all this stuff.45100:35:10,920 --> 00:35:15,800The problem is it's none of thetop management that will agree to it.45200:35:15,920 --> 00:35:20,079If the company goes bankrupt, getshurt, we get a bill out of45300:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,320tax people because we can't let theauto industry go down, you know,45400:35:23,679 --> 00:35:30,880and it constantly, constantly people wantbut don't realize how it affects everybody else.45500:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,079Like I said, when it's good, they want more, and when45600:35:32,119 --> 00:35:35,760he's bad, they don't want togive it back. Yeah, So that's45700:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,599why wage inflation is so sticky.It's just it's hard to give somebody.45800:35:38,920 --> 00:35:42,920It's easy to give a raid,hard to give a cut and pay and45900:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,119pay a little hard once way justall going up. You know, inflation46000:35:45,239 --> 00:35:49,079is not going to really come down. All right, we'll be right back.46100:35:49,199 --> 00:35:52,360We appreciate your listening. This isthe Money Matter Show every Sunday morning,46200:35:52,559 --> 00:36:02,480right here on seven ninety Kandasy sayit's all a name. We'll back46300:36:02,559 --> 00:36:07,320gets the Money by the shelf,Dean, Dylan, Todd and Dave.46400:36:07,559 --> 00:36:13,320We have three d's in that yourealized dd we have to change Todd's name.46500:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,239For those just tuning in, we'vebeen DDT is actually a really cool46600:36:16,280 --> 00:36:20,679wrestling move, so maybe it wasjust DDC. Yeah, it's also a46700:36:21,400 --> 00:36:28,360sexicide. Okay, M cool.Well thirty we're going on thirty four years46800:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,079safe, thirty four years be thirtyfour years doing the show. Wow,46900:36:32,480 --> 00:36:37,039that's amazing. That's amazing, andI'm not bored of it. Yeah,47000:36:37,159 --> 00:36:40,800no, never to talk about everyweek. That's what makes this job so47100:36:40,960 --> 00:36:45,480fun is every week's different. Everyweek is totally different than the week before,47200:36:45,360 --> 00:36:49,480always going to be a more.The line's gonna keep drawing. Yeah,47300:36:49,599 --> 00:36:51,880that's it's nice. It's crazy.I mean, it's it's not like47400:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,199the government. You know the governmenthas one topic, right, COVID one47500:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,440one, only one thing they cantalk about. Did you see where the47600:36:59,599 --> 00:37:04,880cd SEE is recommending vaccines for everyoneage six months and up. Yeah,47700:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,159And I'm sitting there going, areyou serious? Six Yeah, I'm gonna47800:37:07,159 --> 00:37:10,760give my nine month old a COVIDvaccine. I don't think you're gonna give47900:37:10,760 --> 00:37:15,400yourself a COVID vaccine. Yeah.I cannot believe they're even talking about it48000:37:15,519 --> 00:37:20,320right now. Fiser is expecting atwenty four percent vaccination rate. Flu shots48100:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,400are typically fifty percent percent of peopleget a flu shot. The government's not48200:37:23,480 --> 00:37:27,360paying for them anymore, though,so that's kind of innesting. Here's here's48300:37:27,599 --> 00:37:30,559this blew me away. The lastweek Biden, I saw, I saw48400:37:30,599 --> 00:37:32,599a home Oh no, COVID tests, not COVID Okay, okay, So48500:37:32,719 --> 00:37:37,239this is after where I'm going Dan. Last last week, Biden said that48600:37:37,440 --> 00:37:42,719starting next week, you'll be ableto get up to four free home testing48700:37:42,840 --> 00:37:47,360kits from the government. We stoppedthat program in January of twenty twenty two,48800:37:49,199 --> 00:37:52,880almost two years ago. Now we'regonna crank it back up again.48900:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,800Bring on the mask, let's go. What's coming up next year? Good?49000:37:55,960 --> 00:38:00,679Great? Yeah, good point,doing good point man. Gearing up49100:38:00,719 --> 00:38:06,679the freaking everything for COVID against I'min talk about inflation though, I mean,49200:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,239that's not gonna help those Those testsaren't free. Someone's gonna have to49300:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,800pay for that. Oh yeah,sure, Yeah, we don't have any49400:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,559problems with the money though. Atthe federal government levels, we'll got plenty49500:38:15,599 --> 00:38:19,599of money. Well not apparently,because there's that looming government shutdown, right,49600:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,119that's gonna they're gonna. I thinkthey're gonna shut down absolutely because it49700:38:22,159 --> 00:38:25,880doesn't affect us paying the bills,but it makes it. It makes us49800:38:25,920 --> 00:38:30,639stand saying guys, this is ridiculous. The board is ridiculous. The way49900:38:30,639 --> 00:38:32,559you're spending money is ridiculous. Andwe're not going to go ahead and give50000:38:32,599 --> 00:38:36,639you what you need. And thendo you know what the west part of50100:38:36,679 --> 00:38:42,760the shutdown is. They don't losemoney. The money's just deferred. You50200:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,039don't get paid while it's on,right, but they give you they make50300:38:45,119 --> 00:38:47,599up the money down the road.Correct. Now. I just want to50400:38:47,719 --> 00:38:52,440are you able to go on governmentassistance while the government shut down get paid50500:38:52,519 --> 00:38:57,360late dividends from the millions of dollarsthey're making the stock market. Yeah,50600:38:57,559 --> 00:39:00,880but it's a concern for federal employees, you know, and and other you50700:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,639know you can not. We alwaystalk about the fact that a lot of50800:39:02,639 --> 00:39:06,960Americans don't have five hundred two thousanddollars saved up if they needed to make50900:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,760a bill or a payments. Ifyou don't have your income for a week51000:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,840or two weeks, that could bedrastic for certain individuals, will be huge.51100:39:13,960 --> 00:39:15,320And then and then they'll come upwith some way of fronting on the51200:39:15,400 --> 00:39:21,119money or something like that. It'snot fair in reality. Just it's not51300:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,880fair to the federal employees that theydon't even have a choice or whether or51400:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,480not they should shut down. Right, but you know who should not get51500:39:27,519 --> 00:39:32,960paid? Right? Congo should neverget paid if they can't balance the budget.51600:39:34,199 --> 00:39:36,639No, it's job, Yeah,it's their job. Imagine if you're51700:39:36,679 --> 00:39:39,559the CEO of a company and everyyear you in and year out you lost51800:39:39,599 --> 00:39:43,440money, you'd be fired be fightso quickly, I thok, you paid51900:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,519for doing absolutely nothing except fighting witheach other. Or are they trying to52000:39:46,519 --> 00:39:49,679get their job again for the nextthat's all they do, that's all the52100:39:49,880 --> 00:39:51,840five for one year. Then theytry to get their job again for another52200:39:51,920 --> 00:39:52,960year. And it's just a cyclethat they do for eighty years. Because52300:39:52,960 --> 00:40:00,119there's no term limits, impeachment inquiries, and just an endless nonsense. But52400:40:00,239 --> 00:40:05,000people should know that we've had twentygovernment shutdown since nineteen seventy six. The52500:40:05,079 --> 00:40:07,639average return for the SMP five hundredand the average shutdown last eight days.52600:40:07,679 --> 00:40:12,199By the way, the average returnfor the SP five hundred is exactly zero52700:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,960percent. So there is no impacton stocks from a government shutdown. And52800:40:15,079 --> 00:40:17,880it goes down for US and thencomes back up and it's flat. And52900:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,360I think this is really important tosocial security checks and government bond payments,53000:40:22,519 --> 00:40:28,760interest payments not impacted, right,not impacted, the essential services, military,53100:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,800et cetera, not impacted. Right. So the Dean's right, it's53200:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,320it's kind of a it just kindof becomes a game of chicken, and53300:40:35,639 --> 00:40:37,880you're right, Todd, normally aweek, you know. Yeah, And53400:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,679but the social secrity is a goodpoint to bring up because next month,53500:40:39,719 --> 00:40:45,480week, well two months from now, we'll get the September CPI, that's53600:40:45,519 --> 00:40:47,800the CPI that they use for thecola into the next year. I was53700:40:47,800 --> 00:40:52,159reading an article on social security overthe week and it was talking about those53800:40:52,199 --> 00:40:57,280two potential solutions, one from aRepublican and one for Democrat. The Republicans,53900:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,760says they want to raise one pointfive trillion dollars, put it in54000:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,440a new trust fund, which isSocial Security. That's where they supplement right54100:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,760now. They've got a bunch oftrust funds, but those are the ones54200:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,599that are going to be depleted bytwenty thirty four if Congress doesn't do anything,54300:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,599and that's what you always hear onthe news. So they're trying to54400:41:10,639 --> 00:41:14,800start a new one. Put itin the stock market like a regular pension54500:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,760fund that companies do, and tryand get the six seven percent return so54600:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,920they can keep up with inflation,more than the current trust funds, which54700:41:21,920 --> 00:41:23,800are only in treasuries, which historicallyonly pay roughly one to two percent.54800:41:24,159 --> 00:41:28,079And that's why they're following behind.So he wants to put it in the54900:41:28,159 --> 00:41:30,400stock market that will come up inhis plan is to come up with seventy55000:41:30,440 --> 00:41:36,000percent of the needed extra needed moneyand then thirty percent they have to figure55100:41:36,039 --> 00:41:39,440something out, is what he said. The Democrat wants to raise taxes shocker.55200:41:39,800 --> 00:41:44,159He wants to increase the Social Securitypayroll tax for everybody, and then55300:41:44,199 --> 00:41:49,280he also wants to add an additionalinvestment income tax for taxpayers earning over four55400:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,920hundred thousand dollars. And this wouldproposal is not just trying to fix the55500:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,159first problem, which is Social Securitychecks going out. He wants to increase55600:41:55,199 --> 00:41:59,920it by two percent across the board, while also making benefits for more general55700:42:00,119 --> 00:42:04,000for others, including long term beneficiaries, widows, independent children who are students.55800:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,920So we already have a problem.This guy wants to just keep increasing55900:42:07,000 --> 00:42:08,880taxes and just keep adding other peopleto it, even though we already have56000:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,440a problem with the people that arecurrently getting it swing that it's going to56100:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,159deplete and how often it is asolution to get money from the get more56200:42:15,239 --> 00:42:19,840money from the people who are alreadypaid ninety percent of access, right,56300:42:20,079 --> 00:42:23,280Yeah, exactly, it's ridiculous.It is ridiculous. And that's and it's56400:42:23,320 --> 00:42:27,079a whole scare about that. They'reif it doesn't come, they're gonna cut56500:42:27,119 --> 00:42:30,480Social Security benefits by twenty percent inthe next decade. Okay, so that'll56600:42:30,559 --> 00:42:32,719get them to do something. Goodluck with that. And we haven't talked56700:42:32,760 --> 00:42:37,039about I bonds in a while,but that again, that September rate is56800:42:37,079 --> 00:42:39,760going to be a big thing fortheir new interest rate. That's gonna be56900:42:39,960 --> 00:42:46,480Unfortunately, the social Security. No, the I bonds every six months yet57000:42:47,039 --> 00:42:51,199I haven't checked. All I'm sayingis that's that's a big month on that.57100:42:51,639 --> 00:42:53,280Remember that was all the rage,right, well year and a half,57200:42:53,559 --> 00:42:58,320yeah, because unfortunately the government doesn'ttell you that it fluctuates with inflation.57300:42:58,559 --> 00:43:00,119Right, So when you thought youbought a nine per sent I bond57400:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,639two years ago or last year andyou were locked in, you're not locked57500:43:04,639 --> 00:43:07,079in. You change every six months, and when inflation is going down,57600:43:07,719 --> 00:43:12,079your teress race getting You can rememberit's the rate of inflation plus or minus57700:43:12,199 --> 00:43:15,960the change this last one. Sothis time it's going to be three minus57800:43:16,119 --> 00:43:22,760three. That's pretty close to zeroexactly, And that's CPI. The CPI57900:43:23,199 --> 00:43:28,159six six months ago was probably six, right, five or six, say58000:43:28,199 --> 00:43:31,440five, So now it's three anda half. So you're gonna get one58100:43:31,480 --> 00:43:35,480and a half. So you're ninenow is one and a half? Right.58200:43:35,800 --> 00:43:39,679We warned people not to buy thesebonds six months ago, and obviously58300:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,599that this is not the time tobuy right now. In the ten year58400:43:43,639 --> 00:43:46,079you can get four point four three. Well, and we've got we've got58500:43:46,199 --> 00:43:52,400some some two three four year treasuriesand corpus that are well above five.58600:43:52,239 --> 00:43:57,519Had one the other day, athree year bond that was five point eight58700:43:57,679 --> 00:44:00,199on a double A rated. Alright, so we throw all this out.58800:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,360We talk about stocks, you're talkingabout bombs. You do this. You58900:44:02,480 --> 00:44:06,920can't just at hots, just doit. There's a way to do this.59000:44:07,119 --> 00:44:08,840You have to have a plan.We always talk about the plan,59100:44:09,360 --> 00:44:15,679always, more and more and more. Now a plan is so much more59200:44:15,719 --> 00:44:20,719important than the actual investment you're goingto make later on, because that investment59300:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,840you're gonna make later on, itis all part of the plan and you're59400:44:23,840 --> 00:44:28,519with stolerance, but also the plan. You know, we talk about plan59500:44:28,599 --> 00:44:30,639all the time, and I thinkwe don't spend enough time on something that59600:44:31,440 --> 00:44:37,840is centered around is the goals.Right, The whole plan is centered around59700:44:37,880 --> 00:44:42,679your goals, and that's going tobe completely different for every single certain individual59800:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,320family, depending on their own values, their own vision, and where they59900:44:45,360 --> 00:44:52,639see themselves going forward. So identifyingand just describing your savings goals is typically60000:44:52,679 --> 00:44:55,199one of the first steps in thefinancial planning process. And you'd be surprised.60100:44:55,280 --> 00:44:58,800We have a lot of people comein and they don't really have a60200:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,039number in their head how much theywant an income in retirement because a lot60300:45:02,079 --> 00:45:06,400of times they don't know. Andthat's a fair point as well, but60400:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,559you should have at least an idea. Do I want the same standard of60500:45:08,639 --> 00:45:13,039living currently when in my retirement,or would I like eighty percent? Or60600:45:13,039 --> 00:45:15,440would do I want to double mystandard of living currently in retirement. Those60700:45:15,480 --> 00:45:19,880are goals you need to think aboutnow because they're going to drastically impact what60800:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,719decisions need to be made today.Yeah. A big one with that is60900:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,400that they keep the same amount ofaverage monthly spending and say it's five thousand61000:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,280dollars a month right now while you'reworking. It tends to stay about five61100:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,079thousand dollars a month when you're retired. The only thing that's added to it61200:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,800is extra traveling because you've got moretime, So your expenses might go up61300:45:35,840 --> 00:45:37,679in retirement, and that's something youwant to look at before you jump into61400:45:37,719 --> 00:45:42,800retirement and just go by ad hoclike you were saying. But when you're61500:45:42,840 --> 00:45:47,039planning to go into a timement,sure you might reduce your income on what61600:45:47,119 --> 00:45:52,079you're doing and all the way ifyou don't work at all, but then61700:45:52,119 --> 00:45:53,679you're adding back because you're going toget soci security at one time. But61800:45:53,760 --> 00:45:57,320you have to decide when you're goingto take social Security. That's important.61900:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,079If you're time at sixty at socialsecurity is going to be quite different if62000:46:00,119 --> 00:46:04,719you don't wait to full retirement ageor if you wait till seventy dependent.62100:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,079You have to make up that incomedifference. Is it going to be from62200:46:08,119 --> 00:46:10,920your investments? What can you planon the investments where the other money is62300:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,639going to come? Now, that'smy point, Dean, is it's so62400:46:13,800 --> 00:46:17,119important to actually understand your expenses becauseI have many people come into the door62500:46:17,119 --> 00:46:21,000and they say I'm spending three thousanddollars and I'm like, okay, well62600:46:21,119 --> 00:46:22,679you have eight thousand coming in thedoor each month and you're saying you're only62700:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,239spending three thousand, So where's theother five thousand going? Are you saving62800:46:25,239 --> 00:46:29,599and investing five thousand dollars per month? And every single time the person says,62900:46:29,880 --> 00:46:34,159no, I guess I am spendingmore. Right, So actually sit63000:46:34,199 --> 00:46:37,599down and look exactly though exactly makeyou do that. It's painful because you63100:46:37,599 --> 00:46:39,960don't want to admit it. Butonce you get it, you put a63200:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,880smile on your face. You knowwhat, You put a smile on your63300:46:42,920 --> 00:46:45,320face, because we'll figure out howyou're going to get that money, be63400:46:45,440 --> 00:46:49,920able to live on that money,and relieve all the stress and the ups63500:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,519and the downs and everything else thatgoes on. You know what's funny,63600:46:52,559 --> 00:46:55,280The people that do the plan rightand kind of say, okay, I'm63700:46:55,320 --> 00:47:02,039going to get the income stream areless stress stout then those that say I63800:47:02,159 --> 00:47:06,639don't need this money and just putit in and invest it because I wanted63900:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,760to make more. They're the onesthat get so scared when the markets go64000:47:08,920 --> 00:47:13,639down, not the ones that putthe plan together, that understand it's gonna64100:47:13,639 --> 00:47:15,639go down, it's gonna go up. But as long as they're getting their64200:47:15,639 --> 00:47:19,320income each time, they're happy.I haven't seen any one of our clients64300:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,719come out of the financial planning processwith anything but a smile on their faces.64400:47:22,880 --> 00:47:24,400Not one. You guys are doinga great it doesn't always work out64500:47:24,480 --> 00:47:29,119because they expect the market the rallyall the time, and it doesn't sure,64600:47:29,280 --> 00:47:30,400you know, and so and thenwe go from there. All right,64700:47:30,440 --> 00:47:34,480we'll be right back. We gotthe hard break coming up. As64800:47:34,679 --> 00:47:37,039I always keep telling you, youguys, listen, is why we do64900:47:37,199 --> 00:47:40,320the show. I wouldn't do itbefore us a few guys. You we65000:47:40,440 --> 00:47:45,079get a lot of good compliments.You guys, we help you. Helping65100:47:45,519 --> 00:47:47,440is the name of the game.We'll be right back say it's all a65200:47:47,719 --> 00:47:54,719name. Welcome back. Everybody's sickernow with the money by the show.65300:47:54,800 --> 00:47:59,199Remember we just don't hear us.Now you can hear us any time you65400:47:59,320 --> 00:48:04,239want. We we have them allon our website. If you want to65500:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,760go back and listen from three weeksago, five weeks ago, five months65600:48:07,840 --> 00:48:12,079ago, I'm five months on,yeah, five months ago on. Uh,65700:48:12,199 --> 00:48:15,320you go back and listen. It'lltell you what we've been talking about.65800:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,599You can fact check us if youwant. I'm okay, I'm not65900:48:17,679 --> 00:48:22,360always right, but there's a lotof times we are. You can talk66000:48:22,440 --> 00:48:27,159and hear listen about what we're talking. But we also do an interesting thing66100:48:27,280 --> 00:48:34,519on Saturdays, three to half hourmore shows with a host and myself asking66200:48:34,639 --> 00:48:37,360questions, talking about stuff, talkingabout planning. If you don't catch those,66300:48:37,480 --> 00:48:39,280or you can catch it and youlike it, you can listen to66400:48:39,360 --> 00:48:45,880more on the radio also, andwe're gonna start back up on KBOA after66500:48:45,960 --> 00:48:52,280the News on Sunday nights with somegood, good information too. Yeah,66600:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,920those are all more of the holisticfinancial planning TV shows rather than more current66700:48:55,920 --> 00:48:59,440events like we do with this show. Because we record this one every week,66800:48:59,559 --> 00:49:01,320those are re recorded, so it'smore of the whole idea of what66900:49:01,400 --> 00:49:06,400financial planning and investing is with factoidsabout it. But coming in the second67000:49:06,440 --> 00:49:07,599hour, I know people tune infor the second hour, so we'll go67100:49:07,679 --> 00:49:10,480over what happened last week, whichwas just another down week. The Dow67200:49:10,599 --> 00:49:14,920was down two percent, the SMPfive hundred was down three percent, the67300:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,199NASDAC was down three and a halfpercent, and the Wrestle two thousand was67400:49:17,239 --> 00:49:22,079down almost four percent. Equal weightedSMP five hundred, which we've been watching67500:49:22,119 --> 00:49:24,639closely this year because of the sevenstocks I really have been taking off the67600:49:24,679 --> 00:49:30,039SMP five hundred equalated SMP five hundredwas down over three percent, so it's67700:49:30,039 --> 00:49:32,760actually down more than the regular SMP. So that's showing that the marker was67800:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,960just down as a whole. AndI want to spend some time on the67900:49:36,000 --> 00:49:39,320equalated because I found some really interestingstuff about it. Right now, the68000:49:39,440 --> 00:49:45,079valuation gap between the top seven stocksand the SPW, which is the equated,68100:49:45,039 --> 00:49:50,760is the highest level since the techbubble obviously suggesting more upside two thousand68200:49:50,760 --> 00:49:53,679and one. Since two thousand andone, and that's the top seven stocks68300:49:53,760 --> 00:49:59,639market cap by the median trailing Pof the SMP, so the valuation gap68400:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,360is never been bigger. Uh theseIf you take the top six stocks,68500:50:02,440 --> 00:50:08,280they trade at thirty five times trailingtwelve months earnings. So if you take68600:50:08,320 --> 00:50:12,119them out of the s and Pfive hundred, the remaining four hundred and68700:50:12,679 --> 00:50:16,320ninety two stocks, they say tradeat seventeen times earning. From that angle,68800:50:16,599 --> 00:50:21,440the market seem, you know,valuable, right, It's like,68900:50:21,519 --> 00:50:25,679Okay, that reality comes back,but just shows that those six stocks change69000:50:25,719 --> 00:50:31,559the game. I mean, it'snot even close. And it's very important69100:50:31,639 --> 00:50:36,960to keep in mind that when yousee this huge variation, it's likely that69200:50:37,039 --> 00:50:40,559the equal weighted SMP will outperform.And it's so hard to even imagine that69300:50:40,719 --> 00:50:44,760right now because we're just not inthat environment. I mean, the top69400:50:44,840 --> 00:50:49,920seven stocks have just killed everything else. To imagine a value stock outperforming a69500:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,880mega in the next year, it'svery hard. We've got a combination of69600:50:53,280 --> 00:50:58,679value equal weighted SMP five hundred andshort term fixed income. You're down for69700:50:58,760 --> 00:51:04,159the year, right you're down forthe year as of as of last Friday,69800:51:04,199 --> 00:51:07,119and so picking that today is ahard thing to do, very difficult,69900:51:07,320 --> 00:51:12,400very difficult. I want to talka little bit about Raytheon near and70000:51:12,480 --> 00:51:15,239dear to our hearts. We've gotan awfully a lot of clients who are70100:51:15,719 --> 00:51:22,239Raytheon employees, Raytheon retirees. Welove Raytheon in Tucson, Arizona. And70200:51:22,840 --> 00:51:28,719the stock is just getting obliterated hita three year low. Continues to be70300:51:28,840 --> 00:51:35,159concerns about the Pratt and Whitney enginesand the manufacturing defect. We thought originally70400:51:35,320 --> 00:51:40,280that there would it was about afive hundred million dollar problem. Raytheon last70500:51:40,320 --> 00:51:46,360week said they're going to set asidethree billion dollars. There are no analysts70600:51:46,400 --> 00:51:50,159who have stepped up at the plateat this point and said, yeah,70700:51:50,239 --> 00:51:54,880you gotta you gotta look at thestock. There's now a class action lawsuit.70800:51:55,559 --> 00:51:59,760This is talk about picky lawyers,right, This is a class action70900:52:00,119 --> 00:52:04,760stood for those people that lost fivehundred thousand dollars or more. If you71000:52:04,840 --> 00:52:10,119didn't lose five hundred thousand dollars,don't call I mean talk about they got71100:52:10,199 --> 00:52:15,519so much class action stuff out therethat they're narrated down to five hundred thousand71200:52:15,519 --> 00:52:20,400dollars. But I'll look for ananalyst to step forward stocks thirty one percent71300:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,840off, it's fifty two week high, and we hit that fifty two week71400:52:22,920 --> 00:52:28,159high one month ago. Today stillhas an average price rating of around ninety71500:52:28,199 --> 00:52:30,880one dollars to share us so welloff and the target price of ninety one.71600:52:31,920 --> 00:52:35,679I've been saying. I think we'vebeen saying for a couple of weeks71700:52:35,760 --> 00:52:39,760that maybe there'd be a washout lowthat would take it below seventy, where71800:52:40,519 --> 00:52:45,800I believe it's awfully attractive. We'llsee. I'd like to see some analysts71900:52:45,800 --> 00:52:49,239start to come out of the woodworkand say, yeah, you really got72000:52:49,400 --> 00:52:52,159to be looking at this stock now. Yeah, I mean, it just72100:52:52,280 --> 00:52:54,559keeps reminding us. Like we saidlast week, it's just bowing. It72200:52:54,599 --> 00:52:58,320reminds us a bowing how it wasdown in the dumps and just kept going72300:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,639down. Nobody wanted it at thetime. Prior to its issues. When72400:53:00,880 --> 00:53:06,119the plane crashes the engine, theMax seven thirty seven Max issues, it72500:53:06,239 --> 00:53:07,880was trading in roughly two hundred andthirty two hundred forty dollars to share.72600:53:08,440 --> 00:53:12,199Then you have the two plane crashes. Then you have the seven thirty seven72700:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,039Max issues, and those were alot that lasted a lot longer than people72800:53:15,119 --> 00:53:17,360thought. So the stock went allthe way down to under on a hundred72900:53:17,360 --> 00:53:21,679dollars and it was just down andout. Nobody wanted it. And now73000:53:21,719 --> 00:53:23,679look it's back over two twenty orit was for a second. Obviously it's73100:53:23,679 --> 00:53:27,599gone down a little bit, butit's back to where people like it again.73200:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,039And that was only two and ahalf years ago. And the industry73300:53:30,119 --> 00:53:32,320is not going anywhere, no,no, nona be the wars ended.73400:53:32,480 --> 00:53:36,679We just got another three hundred millionsgetting sent to Ukraine. Well, and73500:53:36,760 --> 00:53:38,480like what you're saying, Pride andWhitney is a subsidiary of the company,73600:53:38,519 --> 00:53:42,760and that's they'd make plane engines.That's not going anywhere, right, you73700:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,559know, No, it'd be fineif they will work it out. If73800:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,559the question is how long did ittake? How much more down? Type73900:53:47,840 --> 00:53:51,880is everybody wants to buy at thebottom, which you're probably not gonna do,74000:53:52,639 --> 00:53:55,039so you just your dollar cost average. Just one of those cases where74100:53:55,360 --> 00:53:59,760you know, if you if youwanted to put a ten thousand dollars to74200:53:59,840 --> 00:54:02,760work, maybe you buy thirty shareson on Monday, and then if it74300:54:02,840 --> 00:54:06,880drops another five bucks, you buyanother thirty. For drops another five bucks,74400:54:06,880 --> 00:54:08,119buy another thirty. Yeah. Wellit's like what you said right there.74500:54:08,119 --> 00:54:12,039I mean, and using the Bowingexample, everybody thought Bowen would come74600:54:12,079 --> 00:54:14,800back a lot quicker, and whenit didn't, that's when people didn't want74700:54:14,800 --> 00:54:16,719to buy it anymore. They thoughtthe seven thirty seven max issues gonna last74800:54:16,760 --> 00:54:20,679a month or two. It lastedalmost a year. Remember, go ahead,74900:54:20,840 --> 00:54:22,519well I just before we leave thedefense area. I thought it was75000:54:22,800 --> 00:54:27,719very fascinating that Zelenski made an appearancein the White House. And if you75100:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,119remember last year when he did this, he had a whole standing ovation,75200:54:30,400 --> 00:54:34,440they had a speech, everyone wasgiving him claps. This time you didn't75300:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,320hear a peep, right, Andso I think there's a huge kind of75400:54:37,400 --> 00:54:42,760turn there where the Republicans are gettingfed up with continuously sending money when we75500:54:42,840 --> 00:54:46,119still have a lot of domestic issuesabroad, and no one likes continuing more,75600:54:46,239 --> 00:54:50,800at least if you're pro human right. War is not good for humans,75700:54:51,079 --> 00:54:54,880right, it's terrible, and socontinuously sending money instead of continuously sending75800:54:54,920 --> 00:54:59,000peace talks. It's kind of like, whoa what are we doing here?75900:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,480Right? Like, stand, wedon't like Russia, but also we don't76000:55:01,519 --> 00:55:06,239like death, so how can wecome to a conclusion. The other side76100:55:06,280 --> 00:55:12,000of that coin is allowing Russia totake Ukraine is completely unacceptable on anybody's in76200:55:12,079 --> 00:55:15,159anybody's world. So that's that's gottawe gotta do what it has to be76300:55:15,239 --> 00:55:19,599done there. So it's it's interesting. Another stock that has got some news76400:55:19,679 --> 00:55:23,519this week was Tesla Monday morning.The stock is more than double this year76500:55:23,559 --> 00:55:28,039in all fairness, right, buton Monday, Goldman Sachs became the fourth76600:55:28,320 --> 00:55:32,119firm this month to downgrade the stock. They've downgraded to a hold. As76700:55:32,239 --> 00:55:37,159with other downgrades. They remain constructiveon the future of the company, but76800:55:37,280 --> 00:55:42,280they believe that these repeated price cutswere seen maybe pointing to a slowing of76900:55:42,360 --> 00:55:46,000demand. And we've talked about thison the show a number of times.77000:55:46,360 --> 00:55:52,880Eventually, we're going to get toa point where everyone who wants and can77100:55:52,000 --> 00:55:55,719afford an electric car has one.However, if you remember last week,77200:55:57,039 --> 00:56:00,280the analysts price rating had nothing todo with cars at everything to do with77300:56:00,320 --> 00:56:04,039their Level three chargers, the levelthrough charging. If that doesn't matter.77400:56:04,079 --> 00:56:06,960That's a good point. That's agood reminder, Todd, thank you that77500:56:07,119 --> 00:56:10,000the charging stations may be worth onehundred billion dollars, so that might make77600:56:10,079 --> 00:56:13,880up for the lack of car cells. Right a little bit, I'm gonna77700:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,000switch over to the Evy Garage,right, all right, we'll talk about77800:56:16,079 --> 00:56:19,960on the Evy Garage this weekend.And we've actually had a couple of clients77900:56:20,000 --> 00:56:22,719say they really liked this segments,so we're just gonna do it a little78000:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,239bit this We're gonna talk about hybridsthis week. We all like the idea78100:56:25,280 --> 00:56:30,320of a hybrid, even Dean likesthe idea of a hybrid. But doesn't78200:56:30,360 --> 00:56:36,679that give you the best and theworst of both worlds? For instance,78300:56:36,719 --> 00:56:38,159you can on a hybrid, youcan use the electric locally and then when78400:56:38,199 --> 00:56:42,639you go on long trips you cando the gas. But the trend lately78500:56:42,800 --> 00:56:46,039is for these plug in hybrids,so where you have gas that you plug78600:56:46,119 --> 00:56:51,480it in to recharge your battery andthen you have gas for the longer trips.78700:56:52,199 --> 00:56:57,199The problem with that is you haveto then build a home charging station,78800:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,320right, which which costs you arounda thousand bucks. And tell you78900:57:00,360 --> 00:57:04,400from personal experience by a thousand bucksto get the charger and have an electrician79000:57:04,440 --> 00:57:08,559come out and put a two hundredand forty bolt receptacle in in and have79100:57:08,679 --> 00:57:10,840it all hooks up. That's abouta thousand bucks. And now you've got79200:57:10,920 --> 00:57:15,519a plug in hybrid. Now,I was under the impression that would the79300:57:15,519 --> 00:57:17,880plug in hybrid would be good becauseyou'd be able to plug in. Maybe79400:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,519you can get a couple hundred milesout of the battery, and then then79500:57:21,599 --> 00:57:25,719the gas takes over the plug inhybrid and the regular hybrid range on the79600:57:25,760 --> 00:57:31,760battery is about twenty miles about twentymiles. What are you what are you79700:57:31,840 --> 00:57:36,960thinking? If you're buying a plugin hybrid, you've got to charge the79800:57:37,079 --> 00:57:39,320vehicle and you've got to fill upwith gas. So you've got the worst79900:57:39,719 --> 00:57:45,119of both worlds and you've gained virtuallynothing. Todd, I know you've driven80000:57:45,199 --> 00:57:51,400a hybrid for years and you thoughtthe plug in hybrids kind of like scratched80100:57:51,440 --> 00:57:53,920the head or the plug in hybrids. It's it's just annoying because you have80200:57:54,039 --> 00:58:00,599two different sources. But the regulargas hybrid it's not meant for the electric80300:58:00,679 --> 00:58:04,320battery. So looking at it,like it only has twenty miles of range.80400:58:04,400 --> 00:58:07,559It doesn't matter what range it has, it matters what kind of gas80500:58:07,679 --> 00:58:10,239mileage am I saving compared to aregular gas car. That's the point of80600:58:10,239 --> 00:58:14,159the gas hybrid. Well, butagain you've got one. You've got essentially80700:58:14,880 --> 00:58:19,920one gallon of electric, so you'renot using a gallon. So if you've80800:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,079got a fifteen gallon, you've donethat transfer. Huh, you've done that80900:58:22,159 --> 00:58:25,800calculation transfer. Then now you've gota fourteen fifteen gallon tank. Right,81000:58:27,159 --> 00:58:30,159but that's as show me twenty milesto the gallon, right, so your81100:58:30,199 --> 00:58:32,320battery carrig you're twenty miles. Sothat's one gallon. I can say that81200:58:32,559 --> 00:58:37,159on a normal car like mine,I could probably outrange them by about one81300:58:37,239 --> 00:58:45,239hundred miles outrange what a regular gascar that my hybrid? Gohead, Okay,81400:58:45,559 --> 00:58:47,440but you don't have the plug inhybrid. No, I have the81500:58:47,480 --> 00:58:53,280regular gas hybrid. It's the hybrid. Art is our outselling the electric one81600:58:53,360 --> 00:58:58,639point seven to one, so peopleare more comfortable making taking like a half81700:58:58,679 --> 00:59:02,920step. We said that the overallpopulation of cars is like eight percent hybrid81800:59:04,000 --> 00:59:07,559currently and there's four percent electric orsomething like that. I think it was81900:59:07,599 --> 00:59:10,800eight and five, but I didthe math last week at one point,82000:59:10,880 --> 00:59:15,639so it still thirteen percent. Youknow, you're probably plug in hybrid is82100:59:15,679 --> 00:59:17,679probably one or two percent, right, so only a fifteen percent of the82200:59:17,760 --> 00:59:22,159overall car population is anything electric.I got a guy in the building that82300:59:22,360 --> 00:59:27,960bought got a Mercedes hybrid this pastweek, and it's not a plug in,82400:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,079it's a traditional hybrid. I guessI just don't understand the plug in82500:59:31,159 --> 00:59:35,079hybrid. When I first saw it, I thought, what's going on here?82600:59:35,599 --> 00:59:37,199And I thought, oh, well, maybe you can get you one82700:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,840hundred and fifty miles out of yourbattery. You can't. It just doesn't82800:59:39,880 --> 00:59:43,639make a lot of sense. Icouldn't imagine that the savings and gas mileage82900:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,599offset the annoyance factor. Yeah,it seems like you got the worst of83000:59:46,679 --> 00:59:50,159both worlds. You have to plugin, you have to get a charge83100:59:50,199 --> 00:59:52,519of station, and and you haveto fill it up with the games.83200:59:52,679 --> 00:59:58,199I love the hybrid because even thoughyou're still using gas. It's like when83300:59:58,239 --> 01:00:01,599people are charging their Tesla, they'realso still using gas. Like even though83401:00:01,639 --> 01:00:06,800it's electric, that electric is comingfrom gas, so it's it's still saving83501:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,920the planet. Just as much.We have Uh, people can can email83601:00:10,039 --> 01:00:15,360us with questions. That's uh,what's that agreed? It's contact at Greenberg83701:00:15,440 --> 01:00:17,000Financial dot com. I always puttforget to put the content. And the83801:00:17,039 --> 01:00:20,960reason we do that now is obviouslythe show used to be recorded. It83901:00:21,079 --> 01:00:23,840was live in the studio Sunday mornings, but ever since COVID we have been84001:00:23,880 --> 01:00:27,880recording it on Friday afternoons, soyou're not able to call in live anymore.84101:00:28,280 --> 01:00:30,679So we have the contact at GreenbergFinancial dot com email to be able84201:00:30,679 --> 01:00:32,679to email us any questions you haveand we can talk about it on the84301:00:32,760 --> 01:00:37,400radio, and we had a fewof this week in Subashian Orsini. It's84401:00:37,400 --> 01:00:40,480gonna tell us, get tell uswhat the questions are? Did come up84501:00:40,480 --> 01:00:45,239with a couple of questions, gladto be here everybody. The first one84601:00:45,360 --> 01:00:47,320kind of roots from a lot offinancial planning meetings that Dylan and I have84701:00:47,440 --> 01:00:52,039had lately kind of been seeing thesame type of question arise when we're going84801:00:52,119 --> 01:00:55,400through the plan. It is whatis dollar cost averaging and how does it84901:00:55,480 --> 01:00:59,400work? What do you guys wantto take it? Yeah, so dollar85001:00:59,440 --> 01:01:01,800cost average means that you're trying toget an average price. Let's say you85101:01:01,880 --> 01:01:05,719come in, you open an accountwith ten thousand dollars cash, you have85201:01:05,840 --> 01:01:07,960no securities at all yet, andyou just want to be in the SMP85301:01:08,039 --> 01:01:12,119five hundred hundred percent in the SMPfive hundred. What we do is call85401:01:12,159 --> 01:01:15,880it dollar cost average. We're notgoing to go in and buy ten thousand85501:01:15,880 --> 01:01:19,400dollars worth of SMP five hundred onday one. We're gonna buy twenty five85601:01:19,400 --> 01:01:22,280percent of SMP five hundred today,and then thirty days from now we will85701:01:22,320 --> 01:01:25,519buy another twenty five hundred dollars worthof SMP five hundred, and then another85801:01:25,599 --> 01:01:30,280twenty five thirty days later, andthen another twenty five percent thirty days after85901:01:30,360 --> 01:01:35,000that. So it's four tranches,it's four buying opportunities of SMP five hundred,86001:01:35,199 --> 01:01:37,159and the idea behind it is toaverage out the price. Because it's86101:01:37,199 --> 01:01:42,639over a four month period, youcan get a more if the stock market86201:01:42,679 --> 01:01:45,079goes down. You're not already onehundred percent invested from day one. You86301:01:45,119 --> 01:01:47,519can buy in, you can loweryour unit costs, you can lower your86401:01:47,559 --> 01:01:51,239average price, and that's the wholegoal of it. And if you're buying86501:01:51,280 --> 01:01:52,960in it's a high then you're gonnahave just a good market. Now,86601:01:53,039 --> 01:01:55,679what do you mean by lowering yourunic costs? Explain that so lower in86701:01:55,719 --> 01:02:00,079the unit costs is the average price. So you buy stock for twenty dollars,86801:02:00,159 --> 01:02:05,079you buy the SMP five hundred,hypothetically buy the SMP five hundred for86901:02:05,119 --> 01:02:07,800twenty dollars a share on day one. Then it goes down to ten dollars87001:02:07,880 --> 01:02:10,840a share thirty days later. Sothirty days later you're buying another twenty five87101:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,960hundred dollars worth of SMP five hundred, but now it's worth ten dollars.87201:02:15,400 --> 01:02:20,119Your average price will be fifteen dollarsper share rather than twenty at the initial87301:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,679if you bought one hundred percent,if you used all ten thousand dollars on87401:02:22,800 --> 01:02:27,960day one and bought SMP five hundredand twenty dollars a share, your price87501:02:28,000 --> 01:02:30,239will stay at twenty dollars. Andthat's the idea behind it. If it87601:02:30,320 --> 01:02:34,400does drop, you can lower yourprice and that would leaven some gunpowder on87701:02:34,400 --> 01:02:37,760the sidelines. Well, the exampleI just gave of raytheon right, that's87801:02:37,880 --> 01:02:42,079dollar cost average exactly, the exampleI just gave a few minutes ago.87901:02:42,599 --> 01:02:46,119And the idea is if you putin a specific dollar amount at different times.88001:02:46,519 --> 01:02:50,800If it's higher, you're going tobuy fewer shares, if it's lower,88101:02:50,840 --> 01:02:52,760you're going to buy more shares,So you're going to end up with88201:02:52,880 --> 01:02:57,079an average price this is better thanyou would have gotten if you just throw88301:02:57,119 --> 01:03:00,719an alley and cross your fingers exactly. And then it's also a help if88401:03:00,760 --> 01:03:04,800you've been thinking, if you've justhad money on the sidelines for a while88501:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,000and you've been trying to get yourfeet wet, you don't know how too,88601:03:07,039 --> 01:03:08,360because you're thinking you have to goall in or all out. It's88701:03:08,360 --> 01:03:10,199a good way to get your feetwet, and then you have some skin88801:03:10,239 --> 01:03:13,440in the game, and then you'repaying attention a lot more and it usually88901:03:13,639 --> 01:03:15,159works a lot better. I alsothink something to point out is dollar cost89001:03:15,199 --> 01:03:20,840averaging is normally better for market timingduring like a four or six month period.89101:03:21,239 --> 01:03:23,599Like you wouldn't want to do dollarcost average every year, for example,89201:03:23,760 --> 01:03:28,599because the market can run up waymore and historically the market's up three89301:03:28,639 --> 01:03:30,719out of four years, so likelyyou're not going to get a better price89401:03:30,800 --> 01:03:35,440than what you could have gotten rightthere. It depends, of course,89501:03:35,559 --> 01:03:39,000but that's why when you're starting anaccount with all new cash, and you're89601:03:39,079 --> 01:03:44,519putting in all in day one.That's really risky, rather than you're diversifying89701:03:44,559 --> 01:03:46,159your risk by going over four monthperiod. But you don't want to go89801:03:46,280 --> 01:03:50,599too long because again, the markethistorically always does go up. But as89901:03:50,639 --> 01:03:52,079a guy who's been around for along time, if you had a dollar90001:03:52,199 --> 01:03:57,960cost average back in a nineteen eightyone when the Dow Jones industry a one90101:03:58,079 --> 01:04:00,719thousand for the very first time,if you had a dollar cost average every90201:04:00,800 --> 01:04:05,280six months or every year for thelast forty years, you've been looking pretty90301:04:05,320 --> 01:04:09,159good. Oh yeah, that's all. Well, now we're talking about four90401:04:09,199 --> 01:04:13,800to one ks and things like.I agree, yea. I do have90501:04:13,840 --> 01:04:15,559another question. This one's gonna begeared a little bit more towards the federal90601:04:15,599 --> 01:04:19,920employees since we're enrolling on that asof late. This one's is what are90701:04:19,960 --> 01:04:23,880the options? What are some ofthe options for withdrawing from a TSP in90801:04:23,920 --> 01:04:28,679retirement? Yeah, so you haveabout three different options. I mean if90901:04:28,719 --> 01:04:30,840you're both and what is a TSP? Yeah so, I mean if you're91001:04:30,840 --> 01:04:33,400a federal employee, you'll know whata TSP is. It's the thrist Savings91101:04:33,400 --> 01:04:36,280Plan For people who aren't federal employees, the TSP is just four one K91201:04:36,440 --> 01:04:43,559for federal employees. If you're belowsixty, things are a little different because91301:04:43,679 --> 01:04:45,559of the fact that before fifty nineand a half, taking out of a91401:04:45,599 --> 01:04:49,639four one K you get penalized.But in a TSP, there's a provision91501:04:49,719 --> 01:04:53,239where if you're over the age offifty five, you can take out of91601:04:53,280 --> 01:04:56,840the TSP and not be penalized theten percent penalty. However, you can't91701:04:57,280 --> 01:05:00,320roll over that TSP before you turnsixty into an IRA and take money out91801:05:00,320 --> 01:05:04,000of IRA. You'll still get penalized. So that's why if you're before sixty,91901:05:04,320 --> 01:05:09,199you have the option to take moneyout of the TSP as regular income92001:05:09,480 --> 01:05:12,800and not be penalized. Then afterfifty nine and a half the door opens92101:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,679up for everyone. You can eitherkeep the money in TSP and you can92201:05:15,760 --> 01:05:23,960do four withdrawals a year. That'scorrect, right, Dylan, service withdrawals92301:05:24,000 --> 01:05:27,519a year and it's it's uh,it has to be thirty one days apart92401:05:27,719 --> 01:05:31,760if I'm correct, and you andthat's the problem with leaving in TSP necessarily92501:05:31,840 --> 01:05:34,440that you can do say you cando four like back to back to back92601:05:34,519 --> 01:05:39,440days, but they won't process eachone until thirty days. So if you92701:05:39,480 --> 01:05:42,679want to and that's the sense behindit, right, just don't process it92801:05:42,760 --> 01:05:45,840for thirty days. And we allknow if you are a federal employee,92901:05:45,840 --> 01:05:48,440you know that the federal government doesnot move fast. They can. They93001:05:48,519 --> 01:05:55,519always have issues with trying to getreports done and different filing stuff done,93101:05:55,559 --> 01:05:59,280and we've run into issues ourselves withthem. But if you want to not93201:05:59,440 --> 01:06:01,679deal with the t SP after yourfifty nine and a half or after you're93301:06:01,760 --> 01:06:04,599retired, then what you can dois take that money and roll it into93401:06:04,639 --> 01:06:10,519an IRA. There is no taximplications the money is. It does come93501:06:10,599 --> 01:06:14,880over as cash, so whatever holdersyou are get sold and then it comes93601:06:14,920 --> 01:06:17,639over as cash and it gets depositedinto an IRA at whatever money manager you93701:06:17,719 --> 01:06:20,880wanted to deal with there. Yeah, and the one thing we do I93801:06:20,960 --> 01:06:24,599know federal employees, if youre afederal employee, you have a very unique93901:06:24,719 --> 01:06:29,280retirement system. And what we cando is our financial plan. It really94001:06:29,360 --> 01:06:31,519helps. I mean, you cando it even though it's just for regular94101:06:31,519 --> 01:06:34,039four one case and all that,it does work with the federal employees.94201:06:34,239 --> 01:06:38,559But what we really got it intolately is we're able to figure out your94301:06:38,800 --> 01:06:41,840projected pension as well, whether you'reten years out, twenty years out,94401:06:41,880 --> 01:06:45,280whatever, two years out, wecan help you find what your pension could94501:06:45,280 --> 01:06:48,719be and we can put it intoour financial plan and put it all together94601:06:49,000 --> 01:06:53,039and show you what your retirement couldlook like. We had a client last94701:06:53,039 --> 01:06:56,400week who had no idea what hisprojected pension would look like, and so94801:06:56,599 --> 01:06:59,760we are easily able to find Okay, when did you start service, what94901:07:00,119 --> 01:07:02,239is your last year's payment? Andthen from there those the only thing two95001:07:02,280 --> 01:07:05,440things I need. I can projectout what his pension would look like if95101:07:05,440 --> 01:07:10,280he retires at sixty sixty two,sixty five, sixty seven. How it95201:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,719changes, whether it makes sense,whether a survivor benefit makes sense. And95301:07:13,800 --> 01:07:18,840for federal employees, they know thata survivor benefit will continue their pension to95401:07:18,920 --> 01:07:24,159their spouse, to their air eithertwenty five or fifty percent of it at95501:07:24,199 --> 01:07:28,920the data there passing, But thatmeans that your pension gets reduced when you95601:07:29,079 --> 01:07:32,320start receiving it. So there's differentways to see where maybe it makes sense95701:07:32,360 --> 01:07:36,400to use life insurance instead of asurvivor benefit. Maybe that's more lucrative there's95801:07:36,440 --> 01:07:40,480a lot of things that you canlook at from analysis point of view by95901:07:40,599 --> 01:07:44,719using our financial planning software, andit's completely free to anyone who wants to96001:07:44,800 --> 01:07:46,400utilize. It's important to remember too, when you roll into an IRA,96101:07:46,559 --> 01:07:50,519if you're over fifty five, right, what you can do? You want96201:07:50,559 --> 01:07:56,880to be careful because in the DSPyou can take money out penalty free after96301:07:57,079 --> 01:08:00,760fifty five. Right. Yeah,yeah, he was explaining earlier, right,96401:08:00,079 --> 01:08:03,119And that's that's I missed that completely. You completely missed it. But96501:08:03,239 --> 01:08:06,559yeah, never, I was lookingat my notes and we're going okay.96601:08:06,760 --> 01:08:10,920But that's why it's super important thatyou know. Tsp's a headache. But96701:08:10,960 --> 01:08:13,400if you're before fifty nine and ahalf, it's probably a headache you want96801:08:13,440 --> 01:08:15,479to deal with if you think youneed to take money from your retirement account96901:08:15,760 --> 01:08:18,439four fifty nine and a half andyou're retired. If you don't, then97001:08:18,479 --> 01:08:21,399you could obviously it is legal toroll it all over to IRA. You97101:08:21,479 --> 01:08:25,840just got to know that provision andthat penalty you could incur. Right,97201:08:25,960 --> 01:08:28,920So Ash, thank you, weappreciate it. We had a couple of97301:08:29,000 --> 01:08:32,119interesting IPOs this week. You guysfollow that to arm YEP, Right,97401:08:32,199 --> 01:08:35,439and instat carts. Well, ARMwas last week. Ye, ARM late97501:08:35,520 --> 01:08:38,560last week. Yeah, ARM waslate last week. But in the last97601:08:38,560 --> 01:08:43,520of two this week, well thethird one, though, you didn't really97701:08:43,560 --> 01:08:46,840care about the third one. Ididn't yet. I think that's why I97801:08:46,840 --> 01:08:49,800didn't care about it. But itwas kind of interesting because ARM came out97901:08:49,920 --> 01:08:55,600and it was it was up thirtyfive percent from its IPO price last week.98001:08:56,239 --> 01:09:00,119And it actually somebody must have actuallylooked at the valuation, you know,98101:09:00,199 --> 01:09:04,560and realize that it's trading for fiftypercent the value of of Navidia with98201:09:04,640 --> 01:09:09,079ten percent of the revenue, anddown it came back to its IPO price.98301:09:09,159 --> 01:09:12,119In this instat cart thing, Whatis up with this instacrt thing.98401:09:12,760 --> 01:09:16,640It's it's a service that will goget groceries for you and bring you to98501:09:16,720 --> 01:09:19,760their house, bring it to yourhouse. Right, every grocery store does98601:09:19,840 --> 01:09:23,920that. Why do we need instacrt. I don't understand. Well, it's98701:09:23,920 --> 01:09:26,239not the grocery store that does adoor dash, does it. I buy98801:09:26,279 --> 01:09:29,479my groceries through Safeway, but onDoorDash and they can deliver it to me,98901:09:30,119 --> 01:09:31,199right, But the grocery I thinkthe grocery store does it. Also99001:09:31,199 --> 01:09:35,560because the Safeway's got like twenty truckssetting in a parking lot to stay.99101:09:35,600 --> 01:09:39,960Safeway on them for this though.To deliver food, yeah, I haven't99201:09:40,000 --> 01:09:42,880seen it. And wrong, butI haven't seen that. And I think99301:09:43,119 --> 01:09:45,600almost every grocery store I will deliverfood to you if you if you call99401:09:45,680 --> 01:09:48,439them. Yeah. I think it'sa good point too, because when you99501:09:48,479 --> 01:09:53,119look at something like Lift and Uber, right, you know one one out,99601:09:54,039 --> 01:09:57,399well, the stop jump forty percent, This instatcrt thing jump forty percent99701:09:57,479 --> 01:10:00,880and it's close Friday under the IPOprice. Gave up the whole forty percent.99801:10:00,960 --> 01:10:02,920Then probably try to just make aquick buck sell because we tease the99901:10:03,000 --> 01:10:06,159idea of it being saturated that market. Or maybe they sat maybe they sat100001:10:06,199 --> 01:10:10,920there and think it looks like somebodyalready does this. Between Walmart, Kroger,100101:10:11,159 --> 01:10:14,399DoorDash, and instacrt, someone isgonna win out, and it's likely100201:10:14,640 --> 01:10:19,600DoorDash and Instacart. I think maybethey wouldn't losing that is because that's not100301:10:19,640 --> 01:10:24,520their primary business. They do allthe righties. Doesn't Uber do that now100401:10:24,600 --> 01:10:28,920too? Eats? Yeah, that'sa different thing against the cart's more just100501:10:29,239 --> 01:10:31,840for groceries groceries, right, Well, I know, yeah, dashes all100601:10:31,840 --> 01:10:34,520the restaurants in different I may bewrong, but I think I've thought grocery100701:10:34,560 --> 01:10:39,840stores were delivering to people for yearsnow, so I don't know where instact,100801:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,439no, they haven't been delivering.They've been doing instant pick up,100901:10:43,239 --> 01:10:46,079so that's a different thing. Iactually have elderly people that are getting deliveries101001:10:46,159 --> 01:10:50,880from grocery stores, and so Ihaven't like, yeah, but how many101101:10:50,960 --> 01:10:55,960elderly people are using instacart DoorDash?I don't even how many young people are?101201:10:56,000 --> 01:10:58,760Are you talking to them? I'venever even heard of this. Okay,101301:10:59,640 --> 01:11:02,720maybe we really may we really needthese people, and I just don't101401:11:02,760 --> 01:11:08,359know it. I was under theimpression that that safe way fries all these101501:11:08,399 --> 01:11:12,399people were delivering for years now.So I'll do more researchful talk about was101601:11:12,439 --> 01:11:14,439like, rather than give it toa third party, why not bringing the101701:11:14,479 --> 01:11:15,600revenue yourself? I don't know.It seems it seems odd. And I101801:11:15,680 --> 01:11:21,000know the safe way, the oneI drive by it to liability boom happens101901:11:21,000 --> 01:11:26,880when what happens when a Walmart employeedelivers and he gets gun shot rather than102001:11:26,960 --> 01:11:31,359a door dash employee games a gunshot during the delivery. Yeah, modern102101:11:31,439 --> 01:11:34,520times, what if they're on theycould happen, could happen, That's what102201:11:34,520 --> 01:11:40,560I'm saying. So onstead of Walmarthaving that liability that they financial party,102301:11:40,760 --> 01:11:43,840what if you do a financial planand get shot? Okay, what if102401:11:43,880 --> 01:11:45,720you're doing a radio show and somebodyshoots you, like right now? You102501:11:45,800 --> 01:11:50,079know or you know, Dave,Historically, the worst time to buy stocks102601:11:50,159 --> 01:11:55,359is when unemployment is low below fourpercent and rise. Really yeah, And102701:11:55,439 --> 01:11:58,880I was like, really, that'skind of actually surprising. Like the SNP102801:11:59,039 --> 01:12:01,199only gains around three percent when it'sbelow four percent, and that's where we102901:12:01,279 --> 01:12:05,680currently are. And the highest oneis when it's eighteen percent. That's amazing.103001:12:06,079 --> 01:12:10,079Well, we appreciate everybody coming up, Phil break here. We'll be103101:12:10,199 --> 01:12:14,039back after this freak. We've gotJonathan Sabilia joining us, and uh do103201:12:14,079 --> 01:12:15,439you know we Backham. We'll lookforward to talking with you. Thanks for103301:12:15,520 --> 01:12:27,199listening. Say it's all a name, Welcome back everyone. This is the103401:12:27,239 --> 01:12:30,279Money Matter Show. My name isTodd Click. I'm here with Dave Sherwood,103501:12:30,359 --> 01:12:34,720Dean Greenberg, Dylan Greenberg, andmy man Jonathan Sabilia. Always great103601:12:34,760 --> 01:12:41,279to have my man John on theestate planning side of things. John Sabilia103701:12:41,439 --> 01:12:45,800Esquire attorney in law Esquire who hashis own business but he is associated with103801:12:46,000 --> 01:12:51,720us, has an office here inour office, has been talking to a103901:12:51,840 --> 01:12:59,880lot of our clients about legal issuesthat they have been primarily estate planning issues.104001:13:00,119 --> 01:13:04,039Correct. Yes, and it's ait's amazing how many people haven't really104101:13:04,319 --> 01:13:06,840well. I will also say it'snot just the state planning. I mean104201:13:08,119 --> 01:13:12,760he's a great resource for certain taxmatters, but also business succession, and104301:13:12,840 --> 01:13:15,760I think that's something that a lotof our clients have no idea where to104401:13:15,800 --> 01:13:18,600begin with. There's really nothing.I mean, what's your Google search on104501:13:18,680 --> 01:13:20,960that? Right? How do Isell my business? I mean good luck.104601:13:21,279 --> 01:13:26,960So having an expert to have onthe team is very very useful.104701:13:27,279 --> 01:13:29,960We got to have a two clientsin this morning, both sixty six years104801:13:30,000 --> 01:13:32,279old, have never thought about evenhaving a will. I think it's something104901:13:32,279 --> 01:13:35,920they probably ought to do. That'swhat they're thinking. Oh, Jonathan gets105001:13:35,960 --> 01:13:39,199a call, going to get acall from them, tell us what's going105101:13:39,199 --> 01:13:42,159on in your world? But oh, you know, the same old same.105201:13:42,359 --> 01:13:45,439First off, my pronoun is theman, not my man. So105301:13:45,399 --> 01:13:48,760but I'll take it. Did youjust use pronoun on this show. I105401:13:48,840 --> 01:13:58,760did. That's a very that's veryvery sophisticated. Sophisticated. Yeah, a105501:13:59,479 --> 01:14:08,000good story. I apologize. I'llstay away from that, all right.105601:14:08,079 --> 01:14:13,159I crossed. I crossed the line, all right. Well, as usual,105701:14:13,359 --> 01:14:15,319I usually start off one of theone of these segments with with a105801:14:15,439 --> 01:14:19,239story, so you know, it'skind of about the importance of getting an105901:14:19,239 --> 01:14:24,680attorney and not just you know,sometimes a document prepare is a good idea106001:14:24,840 --> 01:14:28,680in certain circumstances, but sometimes I'llget you in trouble and get themselves in106101:14:28,720 --> 01:14:30,800trouble at the same time. SoI had a lady call me, all106201:14:30,880 --> 01:14:33,199right, actually a gentlemen call me. I said, you know, I106301:14:33,239 --> 01:14:35,479haven't heard from my sister in abouta year and a half. She was106401:14:35,880 --> 01:14:43,439handling mom's probate and uh, soI said, well, I'll reach out106501:14:43,479 --> 01:14:45,720to her. I haven't heard fromher. And then I looked at the106601:14:45,800 --> 01:14:49,920deed and I saw that it wentfrom the probate estate to her personally.106701:14:50,479 --> 01:14:54,279And I called him back and Isaid, hey, look, you know,106801:14:55,560 --> 01:14:59,840it looks like she has administered theestate, but she administered everything to106901:14:59,880 --> 01:15:05,359her self, right, and uh, I don't handle that kind of probate.107001:15:05,439 --> 01:15:09,880So I handed it off to oneof my mentors. He's a litigation107101:15:09,920 --> 01:15:15,119attorney, amazing guy, and hecalled me in. The client said it107201:15:15,199 --> 01:15:17,119was okay, and he spoke tome about the case and he told me107301:15:17,239 --> 01:15:23,640what's going on, and uh,apparently she had one of those document preparers.107401:15:23,920 --> 01:15:27,199Okay, and they could be agreat resource. What is a document107501:15:27,319 --> 01:15:30,279preparer? Just somebody that you knowhere in Arizona. Is they could prepare107601:15:30,359 --> 01:15:33,079legal documents. And that's their title. I mean, that's their job,107701:15:33,359 --> 01:15:38,960is document preparing. They can,they can prepare pleadings. They can.107801:15:39,640 --> 01:15:43,520I've heard circumstances where they're preparing legaldocuments like wills and trust but they do107901:15:43,640 --> 01:15:47,439it. I'm the cheat. Andthey have their own businesses and yeah,108001:15:47,680 --> 01:15:50,560if you wanted a will, youcall this document prepare and say prepare me108101:15:50,640 --> 01:15:54,359a will. Apparently I haven't metany yet, so I you know,108201:15:54,399 --> 01:15:56,960I need to get around a littlebit more. But I know a mortgage108301:15:56,960 --> 01:15:59,680guy, not a mortgage guy,an insurance guy that only deals with the108401:15:59,760 --> 01:16:04,199doctor prepare for his state planning clients. And so you know, they could,108501:16:04,199 --> 01:16:08,039like I said, they could bea great resource. But apparently he108601:16:08,159 --> 01:16:11,039gave her the wrong legal advice,and now she's in a lot of hot108701:16:11,119 --> 01:16:14,279water, all right, just becauseit's it's a it's a it's a male.108801:16:15,520 --> 01:16:17,640I'm not sure what the term heuses is a litigation term, but108901:16:18,159 --> 01:16:24,560she basically inappropriately distributed assets to herself. And now, like I said,109001:16:24,600 --> 01:16:27,720she's in hot water. And Ithink this document payer might be a little109101:16:27,720 --> 01:16:30,920bit hot water because he asked theright questions. It doesn't sound like she109201:16:30,159 --> 01:16:34,000was an innocent in this, no. And the thing is is that if109301:16:34,039 --> 01:16:39,720you're an attorney and you're overseeing aprobated state, is your job to make109401:16:39,800 --> 01:16:45,560sure you know the personal representatives flyingstraight. And that's why you know,109501:16:45,720 --> 01:16:48,039Well, maybe this girl went inwith bad intentions and thought she'd get away109601:16:48,079 --> 01:16:51,119with it, but she's not goingto. So it is not always a109701:16:51,159 --> 01:16:55,520good, good idea to get yourselfa document, prepare, or just do109801:16:55,640 --> 01:16:58,439it yourself. Sometimes you need somelegal advice, you need an attorney to109901:16:58,520 --> 01:17:01,359take care of it for you.It's hard to imagine that that most siblings110001:17:01,439 --> 01:17:04,640would just stand by and let thishappen in a year and a half later,110101:17:04,800 --> 01:17:10,600right. Uh. In the casesI've dealt with, I had recently110201:17:10,680 --> 01:17:14,920had a really good, long timeclient of twenty years passed away, and110301:17:15,000 --> 01:17:18,279he had five heirs, and theyare all adults, and they are all110401:17:19,000 --> 01:17:25,359educated, and they're all well employed. This thing got straightened out and distributed110501:17:25,399 --> 01:17:30,319within about two weeks. It wasjust amazing because you depend we depend upon110601:17:30,920 --> 01:17:34,399them to react to our wishing.You know, well, I need this,110701:17:34,560 --> 01:17:38,920this and this, and you knowsometimes three months later. I had110801:17:38,960 --> 01:17:43,520one case where one of the heirsrefused to take his portion of the estate110901:17:43,880 --> 01:17:46,880because it was screw up his Obamacarewas one hundred thousand dollars. He refused111001:17:46,880 --> 01:17:50,760to take one hundred thousand dollars becauseit was screw up his Obamacare. Thinking111101:17:50,800 --> 01:17:55,199with a hundred thousan dollars, youcan buy some trance right and have something111201:17:55,279 --> 01:17:58,079left over. Let's worry about Obamacare. What was the other one you had?111301:17:58,079 --> 01:18:00,279The one you and you had along time client, some clients of111401:18:00,319 --> 01:18:04,359ours from twenty five years we're intoday. Great people, aren't fun.111501:18:04,560 --> 01:18:08,359Great people. They've been clients herelonger than I've been alive. Yeah,111601:18:08,680 --> 01:18:11,800yeah, that's true today, that'sright. Yeah, I probably got by111701:18:11,840 --> 01:18:15,000thirty years. Yeah, thirty years. Huh, it's amazing. Yeah,111801:18:15,359 --> 01:18:17,199they I looked at and I youknow, obviously I can't say who they111901:18:17,239 --> 01:18:21,279are, but they had a Momhad a trust that's over thirty years old112001:18:21,359 --> 01:18:25,640or about thirty years old, andso you could just tell by the way112101:18:25,640 --> 01:18:28,159it was written. You know,it had all the old terminology and the112201:18:28,199 --> 01:18:30,760old set up. But you know, we went through each deed. You112301:18:30,800 --> 01:18:35,880know. Unfortunately, Mom she wasdiagnosed with uh, you know, a112401:18:36,039 --> 01:18:42,800cancer. But apparently she has apositive outlook and and they have positive stories112501:18:43,000 --> 01:18:45,159of you know, it's it's somethingthat she could possibly live with for a112601:18:45,199 --> 01:18:49,359long time. But it kind oftriggered something where let's take a look at112701:18:49,359 --> 01:18:51,680everything. So I shot over toyour office and I said, you know,112801:18:53,239 --> 01:18:56,640uh, let's just make sure yougot the girls are on the as112901:18:56,720 --> 01:18:59,199beneficiary as it a four oh oneK. You did a quick search,113001:18:59,239 --> 01:19:00,279and he said, yep, that'sabsolute right. In fact, I think113101:19:00,279 --> 01:19:03,760you did a top right off thetopic I had. Actually when I found113201:19:03,800 --> 01:19:06,479out that she was ill a coupleof days ago, the first thing I113301:19:06,560 --> 01:19:12,439did is looked at her Ira madesure that the beneficiaries were the two daughters,113401:19:12,800 --> 01:19:16,199and also made sure that she'd takenher entire required minimum distribution this year.113501:19:16,359 --> 01:19:18,159Yeah, and it was nice.I just got the you know,113601:19:18,359 --> 01:19:20,119in the middle of the meeting,I said, give me one second,113701:19:20,720 --> 01:19:25,279stood up and went to the nextroom, and everything was cleared up.113801:19:25,399 --> 01:19:27,840So that's nice, you know,because we worked together and we worked so113901:19:27,960 --> 01:19:30,319closely, so it's good. It'sit's a good relationship. But you know,114001:19:30,439 --> 01:19:33,479we had the big screen TV inthe in the room and I said,114101:19:33,560 --> 01:19:36,359let's do a quick deed search.We did some deed searching, and114201:19:36,760 --> 01:19:42,680we noticed that the trust that theyhad in front of him was worthless because114301:19:43,079 --> 01:19:46,039the properties were not funded into thetrust. So that's what we're going to114401:19:46,079 --> 01:19:50,359be doing. Literally, the twohomes that they were concerned about, well114501:19:50,439 --> 01:19:53,640one of them was already in thetrust. The other one was not.114601:19:53,800 --> 01:19:56,640But still that still causes problems,right, The one that was not in114701:19:56,720 --> 01:19:59,279the trust was the one that they'rethe most concerned about. Yeah, and114801:19:59,840 --> 01:20:00,640the and to be honest, youI don't even know if we're going to114901:20:00,680 --> 01:20:03,760fund it with the trust because wewant to do a specific distribution, which115001:20:03,800 --> 01:20:08,279means it's going to go to someonein particular. So we're just going to115101:20:08,319 --> 01:20:11,479do a quick beneficiary deed and it'sgoing to go right to the right to115201:20:11,560 --> 01:20:15,279the one daughter, So we don'teven need to mess with trustees and trusts.115301:20:15,359 --> 01:20:16,960We can just do it that way, right, and you have how115401:20:17,000 --> 01:20:21,159do you do with the cost basis? The cost? Well, that's a115501:20:21,239 --> 01:20:27,000great point. I didn't want togive it to her outright because if something115601:20:27,159 --> 01:20:30,119was to happen to mom, costbasis would bump up a fair market value115701:20:30,680 --> 01:20:32,520at her day to death. Now, if I was to give it to115801:20:32,560 --> 01:20:36,600her today, she would inherit mom'sbasis, And if she bought it twenty115901:20:36,680 --> 01:20:41,039years ago, you know, Arizonaproperty twenty years ago, it is probably116001:20:41,720 --> 01:20:44,720pennies on a dollar. I thinkit's important for a lot of people who116101:20:45,079 --> 01:20:49,119are haven't done any estate planning.They're concerned because of the prices, and116201:20:49,159 --> 01:20:54,239they're like, they think every stateplanning attorneys can sell them the trust,116301:20:54,600 --> 01:20:57,800and it's not always the case.A good estate planning attorney, we'll give116401:20:57,840 --> 01:21:01,680you tools if it's approp to notuse a trust. You know, no,116501:21:01,840 --> 01:21:05,479that's absolutely right. I mean Icould have an entire restatement and charged116601:21:05,520 --> 01:21:09,159them full price. But oh yeah, what's the point, you know,116701:21:09,359 --> 01:21:12,680it's it wasn't necessary, But theirattorneys that will do that to you.116801:21:13,039 --> 01:21:16,239And you know there are some attorneysthat what I'm gonna do, you know,116901:21:16,279 --> 01:21:18,600I'm just going to mend the trusta little bit to do a specific117001:21:18,680 --> 01:21:24,800distribution as well. Uh, thereis some argument out there that you know,117101:21:24,960 --> 01:21:29,239why it meant something that's not yours, but I'm it was the two117201:21:29,319 --> 01:21:33,159daughters. They're sole beneficiaries. There'snot going to be any in fighting and117301:21:33,279 --> 01:21:36,239I and I read through the document. It seemed pretty solid. So you117401:21:36,279 --> 01:21:39,479know, I'm just gonna do asmall amendment. I don't need to restate117501:21:39,520 --> 01:21:42,199it and put in my own words, which could be very easy to do.117601:21:42,439 --> 01:21:44,920Very easy to do is run acouple of thousand dollar bill easily,117701:21:45,119 --> 01:21:47,159right exactly, So I'm gonna savethem about three thousand dollars. Yeah,117801:21:47,159 --> 01:21:51,279I think it's important. I thinkit's important that people understand that if you117901:21:51,439 --> 01:21:57,840need the legal services, you arephysically in the Greenberg Financial office, and118001:21:58,000 --> 01:22:01,840Dean would not have you physically inthe Greenberg Financial office if you were doing118101:22:02,079 --> 01:22:06,159untoward things like that about and that'swhat makes us all tick. I mean,118201:22:06,239 --> 01:22:13,000it's Dean's huge John doing the rightthing and charging people a reasonable price118301:22:13,119 --> 01:22:15,399for what they're getting and and andthat goes right to you, and it118401:22:15,439 --> 01:22:19,359goes to insurance people and everyone elsewe deal with. And I also want118501:22:19,359 --> 01:22:23,279to hammer this every time John's onthe shows. He's talked about it before118601:22:24,039 --> 01:22:27,920the ESCORP, right. I mean, it's for certain businesses. It's something118701:22:28,000 --> 01:22:30,720that definitely needs to be looked at, especially in terms of being able to118801:22:30,840 --> 01:22:36,159set up four one k's certain definebenefit plans, to find contribution plans like118901:22:36,279 --> 01:22:40,479you have to be able to lookat what are the tax savings I'm missing119001:22:40,520 --> 01:22:43,439out on. I have a client, you know, I don't know what119101:22:43,520 --> 01:22:45,840our time is, but I justmet with him this week and he is119201:22:45,840 --> 01:22:49,279a cheap as they come, andhe is worth twenty thirty million dollars.119301:22:49,920 --> 01:22:56,439He's a real estate professional. Hedoes his own taxes. That's how you119401:22:56,520 --> 01:22:58,680know. He doesn't want to paya CEPA. And he came to me119501:23:00,119 --> 01:23:02,359and I took a look at everythingand I'm saying, you are paying way119601:23:02,439 --> 01:23:05,600too much in self employment tax?What are you doing? And so I119701:23:05,920 --> 01:23:12,079referred him to a CPA. TheCPA hasn't responded yet. But you know,119801:23:12,279 --> 01:23:15,840it's just one of those things thatpeople don't realize that you can't.119901:23:15,800 --> 01:23:20,319It's a it's a very it's nota very sophisticated formation in the S corp.120001:23:20,479 --> 01:23:24,880But it's necessary certain circumstances, andyou could avoid a lot of self120101:23:24,920 --> 01:23:30,600employment tax if if you if that'swhat's showing up on your ten forty and120201:23:30,680 --> 01:23:32,000if and if you knew needed it. I mean, so many times people120301:23:32,000 --> 01:23:34,640are like, I'm selling my businessand then we look at the statements,120401:23:34,680 --> 01:23:36,560right John, We're like, oh, my goodness, this should have been120501:23:36,560 --> 01:23:41,319an escort fifteen years ago, rightexactly. So I mean not every not120601:23:41,439 --> 01:23:45,279every business should be an scorp,but it should be something that's considered or120701:23:45,359 --> 01:23:48,720some sort of some sort of formation, and you know, maybe you need120801:23:48,800 --> 01:23:51,359a C corp. We back inthe day, I used to do a120901:23:51,399 --> 01:23:55,920lot of my TEP companies that Iwould do taxes for. They were all121001:23:55,960 --> 01:24:00,199C corps. Why because they wouldharbor the money inside the C corp and121101:24:00,359 --> 01:24:02,479just let it grow and grow andgrow, and now what to do tax121201:24:02,600 --> 01:24:08,159laws. It's not it's not thatbad to take dividends anymore so, but121301:24:08,520 --> 01:24:13,039it's still one of those formations thatall makes sense for certain types of industry121401:24:13,079 --> 01:24:16,239and certain types of businesses. Subscertainly didn't make a call. If if121501:24:16,279 --> 01:24:18,920you have any questions, you cancall Jonathan. He shared our office five121601:24:19,000 --> 01:24:24,399two zero five four four four ninezero nine and with our financial plan and121701:24:24,680 --> 01:24:28,279tandem with the estate planning for peoplethat need the business planning, people who121801:24:28,279 --> 01:24:30,479want to set up four one kis changing the escorpse. That's why we121901:24:30,560 --> 01:24:33,680work so great together. And totallyno obligation. I mean, you can122001:24:33,720 --> 01:24:38,199get all of this advice for nothing, so give us a call. It122101:24:38,199 --> 01:24:40,319would be worth your time. We'recoming up on a break here. We122201:24:40,439 --> 01:24:45,119appreciate your listening to us on thisSunday morning, and we'll be back right122301:24:45,159 --> 01:24:59,600after this breaks say it's all aname. Welcome back everybody. It's been122401:24:59,640 --> 01:25:02,840a full packed money about a show. If you missed any part of it,122501:25:02,880 --> 01:25:06,159we want to go back. Justgo to a website Greenberg Financial dot122601:25:06,159 --> 01:25:11,560com, don't know a YouTube sectionand you'll find all the past shows,122701:25:11,680 --> 01:25:15,800including this one. Well, Iguess tomorrow it'll be on there tomorrow,122801:25:15,039 --> 01:25:17,840last week, last segment of theweek, last segment of the show.122901:25:17,920 --> 01:25:21,319Would you like a positive news?Should we like an end on a positive123001:25:21,359 --> 01:25:26,079news? There's a lot of emphasison the positive slow because because there's yeah,123101:25:26,119 --> 01:25:29,640because there's If it's not if it'snot good news, it doesn't get123201:25:29,680 --> 01:25:30,880report. If it's not bad news, it doesn't get reported. Right,123301:25:32,319 --> 01:25:38,039it's of no interest to anybody.So last year we had a lot of123401:25:38,239 --> 01:25:43,760dire predictions about the nation's largest manmade reservoir, which is Lake Mead,123501:25:44,119 --> 01:25:48,600Okay, going dry. But becauseof the heavy snowfall last winter, the123601:25:48,760 --> 01:25:54,199lake has risen. Get this,the lake has risen twenty two feet.123701:25:54,960 --> 01:25:59,760Wow. I mean it's a massivereservoir. Don't You don't because feet climate,123801:26:00,399 --> 01:26:03,760It doesn't go to their it's there, their their speech. Oh look123901:26:03,800 --> 01:26:06,239what's happening. Like you said,they're not going to report positive news.124001:26:06,359 --> 01:26:10,600No, no, that's really positive. Not only that, but Lake Mohave124101:26:10,760 --> 01:26:14,119and Lake Havishu, which are downstreamfrom Lake Mead, are both at one124201:26:14,199 --> 01:26:16,960hundred percent of capacity. You won'tfind any more bones hanging around either.124301:26:17,079 --> 01:26:19,840No, you're not gonna be andthey're not gonna be draining lake meat to124401:26:19,920 --> 01:26:24,399fill up the two lakes down below. Is that crazy? You never hear124501:26:25,119 --> 01:26:27,720two feet? You don't. Igive you a hard time when you come124601:26:27,840 --> 01:26:30,680up with like all the weather andstuff. This is a good one twenty124701:26:30,720 --> 01:26:36,399two feet that's along. That's it'sgood. That's what said. It fits124801:26:36,479 --> 01:26:40,239my agenda. That's a good weatherreport. You know, Tuesday, get124901:26:40,279 --> 01:26:44,560this Tuesday, Amazon? You don'tlike this Tuesday? Amazon rolled out there125001:26:45,000 --> 01:26:48,560just walk out system that allows customersto buy clothing without waiting in a line.125101:26:48,680 --> 01:26:54,039And I'm thinking this is going onall over the nation. What company125201:26:54,199 --> 01:27:00,119is this Amazon? Just walk outit allows you to buy clothing. It125301:27:00,279 --> 01:27:06,720was the store I have no idea. Well close it's tall foods. No,125401:27:08,279 --> 01:27:11,760no, no, it's clothing.But and they're they're installing it the125501:27:11,800 --> 01:27:17,000clothing stores obviously. I just likeAmazon sells their stuff on Amazon. Right125601:27:17,439 --> 01:27:20,600you can buy it. Say youbuy like a jacket on Amazon from ULM125701:27:20,600 --> 01:27:24,760and then you go go to Lancantadaand pick it up and leave. You125801:27:24,920 --> 01:27:27,960go. See what you're saying?Or is there like an Amazon store that125901:27:28,039 --> 01:27:30,880we don't know? If? No, it's it's it's just walk out the126001:27:30,960 --> 01:27:32,520system that allows them to buy mewalk out, like, don't walk out126101:27:32,560 --> 01:27:35,359of where you don't have to pay? Where where you pay for? What126201:27:35,640 --> 01:27:40,039store? Where do you paymon store? But have you ever had no idea?126301:27:40,079 --> 01:27:44,279I thought why do you come theybring this up? Never mind I126401:27:44,560 --> 01:27:46,479was however, no, put yourselfon the other side. However, just126501:27:46,600 --> 01:27:48,600to walk out, you don't knowwhere the store is. You don't even126601:27:48,600 --> 01:27:53,720know if they pay. I'm lookingthat's a that's a good. Well.126701:27:53,800 --> 01:27:56,319But if I if I'm in WholeFoods, if I'm in Whole Foods,126801:27:56,399 --> 01:28:00,119right, I can I can usethe palm? Okay? Yeah? So126901:28:01,039 --> 01:28:04,560what would be that if I metLulu Lemon shopping at the store and I127001:28:04,640 --> 01:28:08,920go to check out, how canI use check it out? Just before127101:28:08,960 --> 01:28:11,199you said you just walk out?No, you just walk out and said127201:28:11,239 --> 01:28:14,279you're if you're checking out, wemust be say like I walk in and127301:28:14,319 --> 01:28:15,439take the jacket and leave like I'mstealing it, but I don't paid for127401:28:15,479 --> 01:28:17,880it? On gets charged on Amazon. You know what it likely is.127501:28:17,960 --> 01:28:23,119It's it's facial recognition. So youprobably have to register on Amazon. You127601:28:23,239 --> 01:28:25,239do the face scam like you dofor your eye. If you do,127701:28:25,720 --> 01:28:28,760and then what happens come back whenyou come back through the store, they127801:28:28,840 --> 01:28:31,279have the camera, they see youryour face and see what you have and127901:28:31,279 --> 01:28:34,439then boom, they will your AmazonWhole food that Whole Foods. When I128001:28:34,520 --> 01:28:39,960checked out yesterday last week, andnow they've got the poem print thing there.128101:28:40,039 --> 01:28:42,319Yeah, I look at that,go palem print. Cool. I128201:28:42,319 --> 01:28:45,439don't think so. The Amazon cameout a couple of months ago, we've128301:28:45,439 --> 01:28:48,039already come over here. Amazon cameout with something else about their Prime They're128401:28:48,079 --> 01:28:51,079going to start ads in twenty twentyfour. I think that's something that we128501:28:51,279 --> 01:28:55,520went a little underreported this week becausethat's a huge revenue draw for Amazon that128601:28:55,560 --> 01:28:58,359they don't currently have. Well,what they'll do is they'll have one with128701:28:58,680 --> 01:29:02,039they'll increase the price if you wantads and most like. But even still,128801:29:03,600 --> 01:29:06,960what do you mean ads? BecauseI go on Amazon now and I'll128901:29:08,000 --> 01:29:10,800get sponsored, sponsored, sponsored,sponsored, you know, before I get129001:29:10,840 --> 01:29:14,279down to So when you click something, when you click something to watch an129101:29:14,279 --> 01:29:16,479Amazon right now, what comes onis another Amazon show as an ad?129201:29:16,840 --> 01:29:20,000What are you talking about? AmazonTV? Prime? I got it all129301:29:20,079 --> 01:29:24,359right, Well that Prime is allokay, that's a good Prime Video.129401:29:24,399 --> 01:29:27,199It's what I should say. Okay, yes, Prime Video. So they're129501:29:27,199 --> 01:29:30,560gonna starts on Prime Video. Yes, I don't know how that's gonna Well129601:29:30,600 --> 01:29:32,800from the beginning, in the beginningof the shows, it's like going to129701:29:32,880 --> 01:29:40,359a movie theater and you see tenthings. Yeah, it's only similar to129801:29:40,439 --> 01:29:44,159other weapids go, he got hegot his EV garaging. I don't but129901:29:44,199 --> 01:29:49,560that we're letting him out to spanAmazon and everything. Yeah, yeah,130001:29:49,560 --> 01:29:53,439I'm thinking I guess I'm thinking Amazon. When I was reading the article,130101:29:53,479 --> 01:29:56,680I was thinking Apple pay is wheremy mind was when I was reading that130201:29:56,840 --> 01:30:00,520article. Yeah, where you justwalk out, you know what I mean?130301:30:00,560 --> 01:30:01,720Apple pay? You don't. Youhave your phone and you just click130401:30:01,720 --> 01:30:04,359it, hit it. Yeah,but I'm thinking that they're doing they're doing130501:30:04,439 --> 01:30:06,720something anyway, doesn't it doesn't makesense. We need to find out.130601:30:06,760 --> 01:30:11,079We need to get down big.On the week it was down like ten130701:30:11,119 --> 01:30:13,840percent, I think something like that. Yeah. Well you know what people130801:30:13,840 --> 01:30:15,479always said, what about this cashlistsociety? I think we're going to get130901:30:15,479 --> 01:30:19,159there pretty much there. Yeah,it's getting there quickly, all of a131001:30:19,239 --> 01:30:23,600sudden, all of a sudden.Well, young people don't have checking accounts.131101:30:24,159 --> 01:30:28,680We when we want to tie anaccount to a bank, we need131201:30:28,760 --> 01:30:31,640avoided check. You don't get thoseanymore. If they have checking accounts,131301:30:31,680 --> 01:30:34,359they don't have checks. It's different. Yes, they don't have check.131401:30:35,000 --> 01:30:40,960You have an account, you havebut it's not like you have your weekly131501:30:41,039 --> 01:30:43,319check, your bi weekly checking gearfrom your work. You don't have and131601:30:43,479 --> 01:30:45,359so everyone knows we're able to getaround that. You asked for a direct131701:30:45,520 --> 01:30:49,479deposit form from your bank. Right, but twice in the last ten days,131801:30:49,560 --> 01:30:53,399my wife has given me a billthat has to be paid by check.131901:30:53,640 --> 01:30:55,920There is no other option. Andyou can still go to the bank132001:30:55,960 --> 01:31:01,039and ask for a bill from thetwo doctors you can call them and put132101:31:01,079 --> 01:31:04,079it on the credit card. Twodifferent doctors. Well one you could call132201:31:04,159 --> 01:31:06,359and I called this ring to nonhole for ten minutes. I said,132301:31:06,359 --> 01:31:09,520okay, find out. Okay,but don't say you can't. You have132401:31:09,640 --> 01:31:12,279to pay a check. But alsoyou could make a case of some soul132501:31:12,359 --> 01:31:15,920proprietor just don't want to accept creditbecause their account receivable. I mean,132601:31:15,000 --> 01:31:18,239they can decide not to accept credit. Health Care will always take it on132701:31:18,279 --> 01:31:21,800the credit card because they can getpaid. Then they don't usually let you132801:31:21,880 --> 01:31:27,279out out of the place unless youpay, yeah, you know, unless132901:31:27,279 --> 01:31:30,760they don't know what the bill is. You don't yeah, well, you133001:31:30,800 --> 01:31:32,000know, there's just some kind ofcold pay. And you know, especially133101:31:32,079 --> 01:31:35,680they're dealing with doctors. You don'tuntil they're submitted to the insurance. You133201:31:35,720 --> 01:31:41,319don't know what you're home sales tidedown thirteen point five percent from last year.133301:31:41,479 --> 01:31:44,399Existing home sales. Yep, butyou know what, it's a caveat133401:31:44,439 --> 01:31:45,880though. It's a huge thing comingdown. It's a huge thing to notice,133501:31:46,000 --> 01:31:48,760right because if you say just homesales, it's very different because when133601:31:48,760 --> 01:31:54,079you put the two into separate piecesexisting in new sales. New home sales133701:31:54,119 --> 01:31:57,319are doing fine, all right,it's the existing homes that are continuing.133801:31:57,359 --> 01:32:00,880However, home builder sentiment what negadfor the first time in seven months,133901:32:01,159 --> 01:32:04,399and there was an interesting chart thatsaid, the last four recessions we've had134001:32:04,760 --> 01:32:10,840construction a retail construction payrolls have droppedeight to ten percent before the recession occurred.134101:32:11,199 --> 01:32:15,640Currently, we're right around time forthe last four recessions. What preceded134201:32:15,680 --> 01:32:20,720it was an eight to ten percentdrop in retail construction payrolls. So those134301:32:20,760 --> 01:32:26,600are the construction workers were working onnew homes for Okay, so when those134401:32:26,680 --> 01:32:30,359drop eight to ten percent, arecession is curred right after it. Okay,134501:32:30,479 --> 01:32:32,880right now we're only at around twopercent drop. So that's the number134601:32:32,920 --> 01:32:35,960to look at, is if wecontinue to see those construction payrolls decline.134701:32:36,520 --> 01:32:41,399Obviously, that means the housing sectorsdeclining and there could be rolling over.134801:32:41,479 --> 01:32:43,319Also, I heard these you know, these funny people are saying, I'm134901:32:43,319 --> 01:32:45,319gonna wait to sell my home andrates are lower next year. Well guess135001:32:45,359 --> 01:32:47,560what if rates are lower next year, I means prices are lower. So135101:32:48,560 --> 01:32:53,760where are you winning? You knowit is good. Fed X reported on135201:32:54,399 --> 01:32:58,520X up five percent of the openon Thursday had reported revenue and that income135301:32:58,560 --> 01:33:01,159above expectations, and they raise guidance. They raised guidance. I thought,135401:33:01,279 --> 01:33:06,720really, that is raising guidance oftenseen as a barometer for the global economy,135501:33:06,840 --> 01:33:11,560not what the FED wants to hear. The things are good at fed135601:33:11,760 --> 01:33:15,279X and getting better. Quarter threeearning supports are gonna be huge. I135701:33:15,319 --> 01:33:16,680mean understand I was going to getbetter. Yes, it might get better135801:33:16,720 --> 01:33:20,479from where it was because we gotholiday coming up. But if if oil135901:33:20,520 --> 01:33:23,920prices keep going up and none ofyour prices keep going up, it's not136001:33:23,960 --> 01:33:26,680going to get better. Doesn't seemodd, But X thinks it will.136101:33:27,159 --> 01:33:30,800They're seeing a pick up in theglobal economy because the fact is people just136201:33:30,880 --> 01:33:33,640won't even buy as much to beshipping, all right, it'll be just136301:33:33,720 --> 01:33:36,720business shipping. Maybe that picks upbecause everyone's at home, though I don't136401:33:36,720 --> 01:33:41,359know. I don't even Some ofthese things are a mystery. We've oh136501:33:41,479 --> 01:33:46,159that in six months from now.Well, our guidance was wrong because we136601:33:46,199 --> 01:33:48,600didn't realize oil prices. We're gonnakeep going high. Well, I mean,136701:33:48,640 --> 01:33:54,680how about the biggest dropping in pricesover the last twelve months airline tickets.136801:33:55,479 --> 01:33:59,039Who's seeing that? Yeah, that'sbecause people planned on the sum of136901:33:59,159 --> 01:34:01,479vacations from a year a year anda half ago, Dave, and now137001:34:01,560 --> 01:34:04,319the drops off because of it,and they're trying to get it up.137101:34:04,319 --> 01:34:08,840They had to ramp up some ofthe roots, all right, because you137201:34:08,840 --> 01:34:12,239remember they were getting stuck. Theywere getting hammered by the by the Department137301:34:12,279 --> 01:34:15,279of Transportation because of the delays andanything else. And now they're not being137401:34:15,319 --> 01:34:17,720able to fill up the plane.So they dropped the prices to get people137501:34:17,760 --> 01:34:21,199going again. So you're seeing theairline tickets drop in price a little bit,137601:34:21,319 --> 01:34:29,359are you okay? It's not theone you were completed? They but137701:34:29,640 --> 01:34:33,560they but the whatdy call it?I've seen when I say they dropped fifty137801:34:33,600 --> 01:34:40,239bucks I've not heard that, sothat's good. That's good. Well,137901:34:40,279 --> 01:34:45,279what's interesting because I was looking atsome tickets over Christmas. It's amazing two138001:34:45,399 --> 01:34:48,840hundred dollars less if you go onChristmas Day. Well, yeah, then138101:34:49,079 --> 01:34:51,159then if you go. Isn't thathow it is every year? Though,138201:34:51,239 --> 01:34:55,680Dean, That's how it is everyyear. That's not that's not we're gonna138301:34:55,680 --> 01:34:58,920go. They're gonna need a fly, yeah, Steve, Christmas Day.138401:34:58,920 --> 01:35:04,640They're just hanging out fly on Christmasdays with people there. That's it.138501:35:05,119 --> 01:35:12,560That's it. That's the Chinese foodon the plane. You get free movies138601:35:12,640 --> 01:35:15,520and free Chinese A good one.Let's let's take a trip of it,138701:35:15,680 --> 01:35:23,359and let's send Sandlers eight nights Crushcountry trip and we'll serve your Chinese food138801:35:23,439 --> 01:35:29,000and movies. Let's get on theplane half off. That's pretty funny.138901:35:29,199 --> 01:35:31,840That's funny. Hey, Starbucks loweron Tuesday, guys, after Colin downgraded139001:35:31,920 --> 01:35:36,399the company sighting worry some trends inChina, and they have Nike reporting on139101:35:36,520 --> 01:35:40,600Thursday, so we'll see how theyreport on China. Yeah. But I139201:35:40,720 --> 01:35:43,880was listening to Cramer though, who'shas his ear to the ground there and139301:35:44,000 --> 01:35:48,239it's not a problem. They're overstatingthe problem with Starbucks because of luck.139401:35:48,359 --> 01:35:51,039And they always do this, Themedia always says that they never go down139501:35:51,119 --> 01:35:57,520and actually look, and they're havingabsolutely no problems with people lining up buy139601:35:57,560 --> 01:36:00,600Stubb Starbucks. They're thinking, howmany people who uh uh in China?139701:36:00,640 --> 01:36:03,239Well, what we're talking about thereis Lucking Coffee in China, which is139801:36:03,279 --> 01:36:06,319the largest coffee chain there. Right, Yeah, and they're doing well because139901:36:06,319 --> 01:36:10,960they're a little cheaper. But youknow, cheapness isn't the thing if you140001:36:11,079 --> 01:36:14,920like Sawbucks better, let's face it. And you can't given your Apple phone140101:36:15,000 --> 01:36:17,319or work if you're a government employee. But the wait for an iPhone fifteen140201:36:17,439 --> 01:36:21,359is November. All right, guesswhat we'll be back next week. Well,140301:36:21,399 --> 01:36:25,399your money matters been a good show. Call us. We'll see you.140401:36:25,520 --> 01:36:29,239Sit down, get their free consultation, your risk analysis, all your140501:36:29,319 --> 01:36:31,680financial plan. You tell us,we'll do it. Be happy, be140601:36:31,840 --> 01:36:39,119healthy, and let's all strive tobe probable. Say it's all a fab