April 20, 2025

Gold at All-Time Highs, Tariff Tensions, and the Psychology of Poor Portfolio Decisions

Gold at All-Time Highs, Tariff Tensions, and the Psychology of Poor Portfolio Decisions
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Gold at All-Time Highs, Tariff Tensions, and the Psychology of Poor Portfolio Decisions
Gold at All-Time Highs, Tariff Tensions, and the Psychology of Poor Portfolio Decisions

On this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by the Greenberg Financial Group, we explore the growing uncertainty around international tariff negotiations and what it could mean for the global economy and your investments. As geopolitical tensions...

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On this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by the Greenberg Financial Group, we explore the growing uncertainty around international tariff negotiations and what it could mean for the global economy and your investments. As geopolitical tensions simmer, gold has surged to yet another all-time high—what’s driving the rally, and is it a smart place to seek safety right now? We break down the forces behind the rise and share why investors should tread carefully in the space.
We also tackle one of the most damaging habits in investing: getting defensive when markets are down and overly aggressive when they’re up. This kind of emotional whiplash can wreck long-term returns. We offer practical, time-tested strategies to help you stay disciplined, manage risk effectively, and make smarter portfolio decisions—especially when it feels hardest to do so. Don’t miss this timely and actionable discussion.
If you would like to contact us to learn more about our firm and our process call us at 520.544.4909 or go to our website at www.Greenbergfinancial.com or email us at Contact@Greenbergfinancial.com

WEBVTT

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Good morning everybody.

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It's that time once again, Sunday morning, eight o'clock right here,

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seven ninety K and s T It's the Money Matter Show,

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and this is Dean Greenberg. For the next two hours,

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we're going to talk to you how we feel about

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what's going on in the world of economics and how

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it relates to with the politics, with the with the

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with the tariffs, with everything happening. It's all it's all together,

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and at the end of the day right now, it's

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not fun for investors. It's not fun for the people

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that you know, uh, you know, believe in what's going on,

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uh and has to take a step back and and

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and and take the pain a little bit, especially in

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their four one K plans and in their in their

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stock portfolios and even bond portfolios. Rates have gone up

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a little bit. Gold has been doing very good, very

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good and kind of interesting how that's happening. There are

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some theories out there. We'll we'll see what happens. But

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this week was not great. That was down almost three percent.

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The S and P was down one and a half percent.

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Now now as Thatch was down two and a half percent.

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The Russell two thousand was down one, but the equal

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weighted S and P five hundred was actually up point

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four percent, which is telling you the money is kind

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of branching out, staying away from just all the technology

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stocks and the big U and the and the and

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the companies that can get hurt with the tariffs, and

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they're trying to stay probably more to the companies that

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could benefit from tarifs on other people that are American

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made companies.

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You know, big thing, My big thing is is.

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That is anything really one percent American made any of

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these big companies. I don't think so. I think parts

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and different things, materials come from different places around the world.

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So we'll see how that all plays out. I mean, eventually,

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could we.

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Get to that. Yeah.

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I'm just still trying to understand the methodology of what

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we're trying to do. And I and I and I

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do question did we have to do it this way?

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And that always comes back to one thing. What we're

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trying to do, what Trump is trying to do is

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absolutely I'm one hundred percent on board. We got to

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reduce our debt, and we got to do it sooner

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than later. Howard doing it, I'm not sure if it's

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really actually as bad as it sounds or not, but

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upsetting partners around the world. But is it a media

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that's trying to bring that together? Is it the media

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around the world that's trying to say how bad it is?

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Because you know, at the end of the day, we

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are the ones that could that, that are the ones

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being taken advantage of.

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We know that.

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And when when somebody else is benefiting from taking advantage

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to somebody else and you change that, of course everyone's

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gonna be upset with you. But do we stand there

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and try to say, oh, we're a nice guy and

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we let a debt go through the sky.

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Or do we do something about it?

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I'm in the can't that we do something about it,

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and we do it sooner than later. You know, a

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lot of false things have been said about Social Security, Medicaid, medicare.

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There are some changes that have to be made, but

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no one's taking their checks away. And it behooves me

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on how the media allows bide In and his and

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his other people that actually get up and just keep

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saying how the people on the lift, you're going to

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lose your social security, You're going to have less money,

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when it's not happening. The truth of the matter is

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if we don't do something in five, ten, fifteen years,

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that's exactly what's going to have to happen. The pensions

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are going to have to be cut. We saw this

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in two thousand and eight and two thousand and one

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when we fell so much. Pensions had to adapt, Pension

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plans had to adapt around the country and around the

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world on how people got paid. Companies were underfunded, they

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had to come up with money, so they charged people

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that were working more money to be able to fund

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their retirement. Down the road, nations Greece, Spain cut and

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France cut what they were doing or extended the time

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frame before they can get their pensions uproars everywhere. Nobody

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wants to be changed. But when you're relying on somebody else,

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and when you're relying on the government to be able

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to support you, you're going to have these problems because

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things have to go up and down. Because remember, in

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order to get paid, where's it coming from. And if

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you're talking taxes and more taxes, it comes from the

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successful people that are working paying taxes. And the more

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money you make, the more money you pay in taxes.

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And that's okay if it's fair. Everyone talks about fairness

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on the other side, or pay your fair share in taxes.

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Well what does that mean? I ask everyone, what does

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that mean when you say it? Because to me right now,

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it's not really that fair. But if you want to

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say it's fair that somebody that's making you know, half

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a million dollars is paying one hundred and fifty thousand

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in taxes, right and somebody that's making fifty thousand is

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not paying taxes at all, is that fair? I guess

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it depends how you look at it. Right, Well, you're

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making that out, but I look at it the other way.

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The person making a half a million dollars a year

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has put the time and the effort to schooling, whatever

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it took to get to that level, the risk if

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it's in his own business to get to that level,

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and for that they should be tax more percentage wise

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of for tax more too. It's not just dollar wise,

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because the higher you get it's progressive.

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You get higher paid.

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You go from ten to twelve, to fifteen to twenty

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to thirty to thirty five to thirty eight percent or

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thirty seven and a half percent. Then you get state

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taxes on top of it so you do get taxed more.

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And to say that's not their fair share, I don't know.

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I don't understand. And then when they start talking about

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billionaires don't pay their fair share and they don't pay enough,

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you know, I just I just shatow to say, back.

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Change the tax laws. Change the tax laws.

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People with that type of money have a lot invested

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in long term investments that they don't have to pay

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taxes on.

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And a lot of them have.

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Instruments that give them depreciation, like real estate. You don't

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like it, change the tax law, but if you don't

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like that, then they're gonna hurt. It's gonna hurt real estate.

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And if it hurts real estate, that's gonna I hurt you. Also,

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because most people that have a house, their real estate

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prices would.

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Go down to.

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We got to be smart about how we do things

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so win the situation. That is very tough, and from

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as an investor, I'm having trouble trying to figure out

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do I buy or do I sell.

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I don't even really know right now.

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Because I want to buy when the market's down and

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then the market rallies, and then as soon as it rallies,

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you're hearing something different and then the markets fall. So

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it's kind of like I've raised cash. I'm staying cautious.

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I'm ta protective. If it comes back down to forty

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eight hundred or lower forty five forty four, I'll put

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that back to work. If we go up much higher

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from here fifty six to fifty eight hundred, I'll probably

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take more money off the table and protect. I don't

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know any other way to invest right now. Do we

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have that long term picture of saying what can happen

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going forward? You and I both know you're out of

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a market. We can come in one day, China's gonna

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come eat the next thing.

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You know.

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We're up three thousand points on the now and five

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hundred points on the S and P five hundred. So

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not having any investment is going to be a tough

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situation for you. So what do you do? How do

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you address this? You invest less, have more cash, have

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have smaller amounts in different positions, and you weather the storm.

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If you're someone that has to live off that money

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coming out of your retirement account, then that's a whole

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different story, and that's a whole different topic, and that's

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a whole different type of portfolio to put together, because

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if you're living off your portfolio and you're trying to

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take out ten or fifteen percent a year, you're gonna

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be in trouble because you're not gonna make ten or

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fifteen percent a year. Yeah, if you have your portfolio

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and you're going to try to take out four or

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five percent, you can set that portfolio up to safeguard

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yourself between market downturns and give you time to come

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back and for the next five years be able to know,

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no matter what happens, you're going to get your money

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every single month, and then you're going to keep repeating

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that and repeating that and repeating that, and you'll have

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five years for the markets to come back. Now, how

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do you invest when you do that? You got to

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invest conservatively. Got to use ETFs indexes, dividend paying stocks,

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high yielding funds to be able to give yourself the

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ability to make dividends and interest enough to buy a

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five year olt bond to replace the one. You're there,

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and it's an ongoing system, and you're setting yourself up

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systematically to be able to take money from your account

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over the next ten to twenty thirty years. Remember, if

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you're taking money out of your account, it's not always

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gonna go up. The growth part can go down. So

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make sure you're secure on moneies that you need for

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the next five years. And you can't take seven eight

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percent out and think it's not going to fall.

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And it's so important.

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When the markets are hired to avoid getting in and

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doing it and the market's four for the first one

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or two years, and then rallies from there because say,

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you know what you're doing is you're coming in and

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getting negative years right now. So as the market is

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a little bit softer, a little bit more cautious, you've

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got to invest cautiously. Now, if we come back down

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to forty eight forty five four thousand on the SMP,

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now that's a whole different story. Then these things work

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better because then you know, for the next ten years

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you're going to probably average that ten percent or so

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on the SMP. But when the markets are going up

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fifteen percent or twenty percent like they did in the

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last few years, you know there's a reset. There's always

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a reset. So everyone that's talking now that the surprise,

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think about it. We needed a reset. We were at

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twenty two twenty three times earnings, even twenty four. Sometimes

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average is sixteen seventeen. And right now earnings aren't gonna

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en be increasing, They're going to be decreasing, and that's

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what makes the markets go down. So we've had some

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reports come out lately okay, and the reports on on

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on uh, you know, sales okay have been great. People go,

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how could this be? How could there be so much sales? Well,

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it's really simple. People feel what they fear that we're

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going to have higher prices in near future because of

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the tariffs. They got a lot of people got tax refunds,

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so they're buying stuff now, they're buying it before prices

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go up, So of course you're going to see a

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spike a consumer buying everybody I know that only has

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a car. Lot of works in the car industry. You're saying,

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they're selling records amount of cars over the last couple

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of months.

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Tariffs.

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They don't want to get hit some people doing it.

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So then when the inventory goes down, what's gonna happen.

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Obviously sales are gonna go down. That's what happens. It's

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a cycle. So that brings me to the Federal Reserve

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and I know this week you heard Chairman Powell and

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then you heard Trump come out the day after say

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I can't wait to his termination date. You know, of

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course the left will run with determination date and say

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he wants a threatening to fire him. I didn't hear

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any threatening and termination date. What that's saying is determination date.

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You probably better be looking for another job. But you're

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going to fulfill your contract too. Then, But he believes

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we should have lower interest rates. Yes, Trump has created this,

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this this situation that we're in. Yes, there's a possibility

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with terrorists that rates will go higher, and the and

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the Fed is concerned about higher inflation. But on the

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other target, tariffs are also going to create a slow down.

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Consumer spending will absolutely go down, Supplies will increase, the

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demand will decrease. So yes, we will have a slow down,

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maybe even a recession if you want to record everything

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by the GDP. But a de mandate from the Fed

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is to do what look at unemployment and try to

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have unemployment come down. But if it's already down, they're

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afraid that it would create a higher wages, so they

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got to be worried about that. If we have too

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low unemployment, then on the other side, they got to

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worry about inflation economics economy, stimulate the economy when it's down,

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and they got to worry about inflation on the other side.

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We have both right now, right But here's the problem.

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The FED is driving and looking in the rearview mirror.

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They always do stuff that comes out to us in

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for March and April and may are not going to

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be the numbers that we feel in June, July or August.

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We all know that there's going to be a slow.

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Down we'll do, so why not get ahead of the

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game and start showing that you can relieve some of

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the interest rate pressure that we have to make sure

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we stimulate the economy. Is that run the risk of

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causing inflation to go up and higher price It does,

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But remember we're not going to stimulate with the teriffs.

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We're still not going to be buying, So the prices

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could go up, would you be inflationary? But if we're

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not buying, it's not gonna skyrocket. It's just going to

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be from the terriffs. But to slow down is important.

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But if you lower interest rates, we can at least

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then maybe maintain where we're at, because then you're you're

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paying less for things on credit cards, just paying less

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for things.

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If you're buying a car, you're paying.

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Less for things to offset the increase in price on

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the other side. And until we get inflation coming down

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in the pro tariff wars done and fixed and there

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is going to be everyone talk. Then when we get

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that and the economy is already down and turning, and

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we got lower prices because the terrorists are coming down, now,

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think about the rocket ship we have after that. That's

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why I believest rate should come down. You heard me

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last year and the year before that. I never thought

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that the Fed should lower interest rates, but they did anyway,

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in September they did it, said twice. Actually when inflation

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was higher there was at four point eight instead of

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four point six, okay.

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And they did it when.

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Unemployment was lower at four point one four point two,

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and now it's like four point three or something four

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point four. So before they did it would demandate anticipating

284
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what we still had a good economy. We never really

285
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slowed down. Inflation was never transitory, but they did it.

286
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So now you got to pick one side of the

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mandate of the other. And the Fed is concentrating on inflation.

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Is that because they felt like they missed it last

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time when they said it was transitory, and they don't want.

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It to happen. You can see it.

291
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Anyone can see it and knows that inflation might go

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up because of the tariffs.

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But it won't matter if you don't.

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If everything is a slow down and there's no demand and.

295
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Things are slowing. So take the compromise role.

296
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Lower interest rates are gonna be more people unemployed, especially

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from the government right. Lower the interest rates, so at

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least then money being borrowed from companies and their debt

299
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that they have that fluctuates up and down could at

300
00:17:31.640 --> 00:17:34.839
least go ahead and or set some of the losses

301
00:17:34.880 --> 00:17:39.400
they are going to take on the other side. Don't

302
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wait so long to see what the numbers are today, thinking, oh,

303
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we're gonna get ahead of it.

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Get ahead of the game.

305
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Stop playing behind the ball.

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Start playing in front.

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Be proactive and not reactive, and as a FED, you're

308
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going to have to be both. You got reaction, you

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00:18:00.359 --> 00:18:03.599
got proactive or reactive or whatever. In the in the

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four last year low and raged twice. Am not even

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gonna bring up the fact that it was an election year. Okay,

312
00:18:10.640 --> 00:18:13.480
even though I just did. But honestly, I'm just looking

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at the fact and facts. Now take the fact out,

314
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it's the terrorifs take that out. Is is it look

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like we're going to slow down because of what's going on?

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Yes?

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Is it Trump's fall for what's going on? Yes, this

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is the plan. So why not you try to support

319
00:18:28.279 --> 00:18:32.680
the people of America with it unless you don't think

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what he's doing is correct, and then you become political

321
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when you say you're not. This is not a political

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stance from the FED. Lowing interest rates is good for people,

323
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for the housing market, which is just gonna get crushed here. Again,

324
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we're not building anything. So unless we have more supply,

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even when interest rates come down, all that's gonna do

326
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is keep raising prices of homes even if there are

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no tariffs. We need supply, and the only way builders

328
00:19:14.759 --> 00:19:16.440
are gonna be able to get money and build is

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00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:20.440
off interst rates come down, because that way they can

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build a home that's affordable for Americans. So you gotta

331
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tie this all together, man, You gotta look at where

332
00:19:27.960 --> 00:19:30.720
we are and what's going on and try to figure

333
00:19:30.799 --> 00:19:32.559
how to go forward and make money.

334
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Are the tariffs gonna be here.

335
00:19:33.839 --> 00:19:38.400
Yes, are there gonna be negotiation processes talks going on.

336
00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:42.599
I think there will be, and you're gonna hear them

337
00:19:42.599 --> 00:19:44.920
over the next couple of weeks. And every time there's

338
00:19:44.960 --> 00:19:46.720
a good one, the market's gonna shoot up, and then

339
00:19:46.720 --> 00:19:49.200
there's gonna be shot down after that. So we're gonna

340
00:19:49.200 --> 00:19:52.359
be in a volatile time. But I'm just gonna look

341
00:19:52.359 --> 00:19:55.720
at where we are now. Between five thousand and fifty

342
00:19:55.759 --> 00:20:00.319
four hundred, you kind of stay neutral, stay neutral, hold

343
00:20:00.359 --> 00:20:03.200
what you have, don't sell what you have, keep the position.

344
00:20:03.759 --> 00:20:05.880
If we come down to forty eight hundred or lower

345
00:20:05.920 --> 00:20:08.319
on the S and P. Five hundred, start to put

346
00:20:08.559 --> 00:20:12.680
money to work. If we come to fifty six hundred

347
00:20:12.720 --> 00:20:15.000
to fifty eight hundred on the S and P. Five hundred,

348
00:20:15.720 --> 00:20:20.079
take some money off the table. If you don't know

349
00:20:20.079 --> 00:20:22.160
how to do that, or how to mitigate risk with

350
00:20:22.200 --> 00:20:25.279
this stuff, then go talk to somebody that can help you.

351
00:20:26.839 --> 00:20:27.799
Yes, we can help you.

352
00:20:27.839 --> 00:20:32.799
Also, get a couple different people to give you their ideas.

353
00:20:34.240 --> 00:20:39.160
But don't look at your fear and just go buy annuities. Okay,

354
00:20:41.079 --> 00:20:44.000
just don't say, oh, I don't want this downside, I

355
00:20:44.039 --> 00:20:46.440
can't take this anymore, I'm going to buy annuity because

356
00:20:46.680 --> 00:20:49.319
almost everyone I talked to that bought an annuity when

357
00:20:49.319 --> 00:20:52.880
this was happening three years ago has made very little

358
00:20:53.119 --> 00:20:57.119
money compared to what they would have made in the markets.

359
00:20:58.160 --> 00:21:02.720
There are reasons to buy annuities when you want to,

360
00:21:03.359 --> 00:21:05.880
going ahead to do it because of the protection is

361
00:21:05.920 --> 00:21:08.599
not one of them. There's many other ways to protect

362
00:21:08.599 --> 00:21:11.559
yourself and get about the same yield. Heck, in the

363
00:21:11.680 --> 00:21:13.319
money market now, I'll get over four to four and

364
00:21:13.319 --> 00:21:16.200
a half percent. That's almost about what almost anyone I

365
00:21:16.240 --> 00:21:19.799
know averages with these annuities because of all the fees.

366
00:21:21.359 --> 00:21:26.160
I know they sound great, I know they do. Can't

367
00:21:26.200 --> 00:21:27.119
go down, only up.

368
00:21:28.440 --> 00:21:30.759
You know, when you're buying an annuity index and stuff,

369
00:21:30.839 --> 00:21:35.480
you're not even buying an index. You're giving your money

370
00:21:35.480 --> 00:21:38.839
to the insurance company. They're gonna give you a rate

371
00:21:38.880 --> 00:21:41.920
of return based on what's going on, maybe on one

372
00:21:41.920 --> 00:21:45.400
of the indexes with a cap on it, after all expenses.

373
00:21:47.319 --> 00:21:49.200
So if you're gonna get nine to ten percent on

374
00:21:49.279 --> 00:21:50.680
the S and P, that means it's got to do

375
00:21:50.880 --> 00:21:53.960
probably thirteen twelve or thirteen percent for you to get

376
00:21:53.960 --> 00:21:57.440
the maximum between your life insurance that you're paying for

377
00:21:57.480 --> 00:22:03.680
it between all the other expenses of the annew If

378
00:22:03.720 --> 00:22:09.160
you have an annuity, you need to check out if

379
00:22:09.400 --> 00:22:12.799
it's a good annuity or not, where you are and

380
00:22:12.839 --> 00:22:15.160
what you're doing, and what the cause of it is

381
00:22:15.400 --> 00:22:19.279
you really do there are ways to change that annuity

382
00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:21.599
to another one that's better. There are ways to do

383
00:22:21.720 --> 00:22:24.079
other things if you're stuck in it. It's almost like

384
00:22:24.519 --> 00:22:27.839
where the time share stuff. A lot of people got

385
00:22:27.839 --> 00:22:31.400
time shares, a few people love them, a lot of

386
00:22:31.440 --> 00:22:34.440
people can't try to get out of them. It wasn't

387
00:22:34.480 --> 00:22:36.720
what they expected it to be. And that's kind of

388
00:22:36.720 --> 00:22:38.680
how I look at annuities a lot of time. There

389
00:22:38.759 --> 00:22:41.480
are good ones, and when you're getting that check, that's

390
00:22:41.519 --> 00:22:44.839
what annuities are great for. The guaranteed income that you

391
00:22:44.880 --> 00:22:47.599
can get in the miga, great boom. You're in it

392
00:22:47.680 --> 00:22:49.880
for five years, seven years, whatever it is, and they're

393
00:22:49.880 --> 00:22:51.119
giving you high rates your return.

394
00:22:51.160 --> 00:22:51.599
That's great.

395
00:22:52.079 --> 00:22:54.119
The other one is when you do you go in

396
00:22:54.480 --> 00:22:56.680
and you're able to say, in five years, ten years,

397
00:22:56.680 --> 00:22:59.400
fit whatever it is, will I this is how much

398
00:22:59.440 --> 00:23:06.039
money I'm going to get in a check minimum Those

399
00:23:06.079 --> 00:23:08.519
are good if you put in X amount of money

400
00:23:08.559 --> 00:23:10.839
and then you get X amount of a monthly.

401
00:23:10.519 --> 00:23:13.200
Check for the rest of your life. That's what they're

402
00:23:13.240 --> 00:23:13.680
good for.

403
00:23:14.519 --> 00:23:17.279
What they're not good for is being scared of what's

404
00:23:17.319 --> 00:23:20.599
going on and putting it into the mark, into the nuity.

405
00:23:20.720 --> 00:23:23.680
Because you want to take your growth money and get conservative,

406
00:23:23.680 --> 00:23:27.519
there's other ways to do it that you can keep liquidity.

407
00:23:27.680 --> 00:23:32.400
Liquidity is the key to the to the game. Klamos

408
00:23:32.440 --> 00:23:34.119
has a lot of good things that are out there

409
00:23:34.200 --> 00:23:37.519
right now, different ones that can make you and there

410
00:23:37.559 --> 00:23:41.400
are one year play one year you go in. They

411
00:23:41.400 --> 00:23:46.000
say there's no downside, there's only upside depending when you

412
00:23:46.039 --> 00:23:47.480
get in. But if you get in day one, that's

413
00:23:47.480 --> 00:23:50.839
how they do it. They hedge the portfolio. You can

414
00:23:50.880 --> 00:23:53.720
make eight, nine, ten percent on the upside and they're

415
00:23:53.759 --> 00:23:59.119
saying you can't lose anything on the downside. Okay, again,

416
00:23:59.400 --> 00:24:02.200
don't trust. Everything has some type of risk, so you

417
00:24:02.200 --> 00:24:03.839
don't put all your money in one thing or do

418
00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:07.160
anything with all one thing. But there are ways to

419
00:24:07.240 --> 00:24:11.599
diversify and take advantage of different things that are out there,

420
00:24:11.640 --> 00:24:15.160
and I highly suggest you learn how to mitigate risk,

421
00:24:16.039 --> 00:24:19.079
learn how to take money off the table, and how

422
00:24:19.119 --> 00:24:21.279
to step up to the plate. When the market's down,

423
00:24:21.720 --> 00:24:24.000
we have a lot to talk about. This is Dean Greenberg.

424
00:24:24.039 --> 00:24:26.440
This is the Money Matter Show. And I appreciate from

425
00:24:26.440 --> 00:24:28.559
the bottom of my heart that you've been listening to

426
00:24:28.640 --> 00:24:31.119
us talk for the last thirty five years. We'll be

427
00:24:31.200 --> 00:24:36.200
right back. Welcome back, everybody. It's the Money By the Show.

428
00:24:36.240 --> 00:24:40.920
I got Dave Sherwood, Dalan Greenberg, Todd Glick, myself to

429
00:24:41.000 --> 00:24:44.319
bring you to another hour and a half of our

430
00:24:45.079 --> 00:24:49.559
input of what's happening here. And like I said my monologue,

431
00:24:51.000 --> 00:24:53.680
it's hard right now. I don't know you're buying a selling,

432
00:24:54.440 --> 00:24:57.000
but between five thousand, if you bought under five thousand,

433
00:24:57.079 --> 00:25:00.079
you in good shape. If you're still under invested and

434
00:25:00.119 --> 00:25:02.039
you want to get to a certain point that you

435
00:25:02.079 --> 00:25:04.359
know right around fifty one fifty two hundred, you can

436
00:25:04.400 --> 00:25:08.119
add something, add indexes, but until it gets to fifty

437
00:25:08.160 --> 00:25:11.480
six fifty eight hundred, I probably want to stay invested

438
00:25:11.519 --> 00:25:13.920
to where I am. If it comes under five thousand,

439
00:25:13.960 --> 00:25:15.880
so it's getting back to forty eight hundred or less,

440
00:25:16.000 --> 00:25:18.920
I want to stop buying and adding with to the portfolio,

441
00:25:19.920 --> 00:25:23.079
take off the mitigation part. Who knows a lot. Every

442
00:25:23.119 --> 00:25:26.440
portfolio is different, but it's a very difficult time. Not

443
00:25:26.640 --> 00:25:30.839
because of what's happening. It's because you can't see into

444
00:25:30.839 --> 00:25:33.519
the future. And this is what's happening with every single company.

445
00:25:33.839 --> 00:25:34.920
Will they have earnings or not?

446
00:25:35.079 --> 00:25:36.160
And you and I all know.

447
00:25:36.519 --> 00:25:40.000
If they just say, hey, changing the tariffs or were

448
00:25:40.039 --> 00:25:43.559
negotiating with China, the whole thing changes absolutely.

449
00:25:43.960 --> 00:25:47.759
And more importantly though, Dean, Happy Easter to everyone. Oh yeah,

450
00:25:47.839 --> 00:25:51.640
happy final day of Passover. We are not sitting in

451
00:25:51.680 --> 00:25:53.839
the studio on the last day of Passover and on

452
00:25:53.920 --> 00:25:59.559
Easter Sunday, recording this show Thursday Monday, Thursday, after the

453
00:25:59.599 --> 00:26:02.960
close is when we're recorded this week. Friday is a holiday.

454
00:26:03.319 --> 00:26:06.960
The New York Stock Exchange has traditionally closed for good Friday.

455
00:26:07.240 --> 00:26:09.759
I call it spring break. It's kind of their version

456
00:26:09.799 --> 00:26:15.119
of spring break. Right, Happy Easter to everyone, and be assured.

457
00:26:15.119 --> 00:26:17.519
We're with our families, We're in church, we're in the

458
00:26:17.519 --> 00:26:20.240
synagogue or wherever, we're not in the studio.

459
00:26:20.400 --> 00:26:21.680
So well, one of the things I.

460
00:26:21.599 --> 00:26:25.039
Do want to tell you too, guys, you know at Risk,

461
00:26:25.440 --> 00:26:27.559
I always have to tell you about risk before we

462
00:26:27.599 --> 00:26:32.079
get going. Risk is important to understand. The show is

463
00:26:32.119 --> 00:26:34.119
brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, which is a

464
00:26:34.160 --> 00:26:37.240
registered investment advisory, which means we'll all fee based business.

465
00:26:38.400 --> 00:26:42.359
Everything we do is to be able to benefit the

466
00:26:42.400 --> 00:26:45.799
client period as much in our opinion, the best we

467
00:26:45.880 --> 00:26:47.720
can and we stick to that.

468
00:26:48.680 --> 00:26:50.319
And at the end of the day, though.

469
00:26:50.119 --> 00:26:52.920
There's risk with everything, and you have to understand your

470
00:26:53.000 --> 00:26:57.240
risk tolerance and what risk really means. And sometimes when

471
00:26:57.240 --> 00:26:59.759
you're just making a lot of money, there's risk there too,

472
00:27:00.240 --> 00:27:02.759
and when you're losing money, there's risks there too. But

473
00:27:02.839 --> 00:27:05.599
if you put your portfolio together based on what your

474
00:27:05.720 --> 00:27:09.880
needs are, that reduces your risk, reduces your stress, and

475
00:27:09.920 --> 00:27:12.119
that's what puts you in the right place. But don't

476
00:27:12.160 --> 00:27:15.079
think that there's anything out there that doesn't have some

477
00:27:15.119 --> 00:27:15.759
type of risks.

478
00:27:15.799 --> 00:27:17.799
And the one thing that market hats more than anything, Dean,

479
00:27:17.960 --> 00:27:21.920
the one thing the market hates more than anything is uncertainty,

480
00:27:22.640 --> 00:27:27.200
and we have uncertainty right now, unlike the uncertainty we've

481
00:27:27.200 --> 00:27:30.680
seen in many years. You go back to the pandemic obviously,

482
00:27:30.759 --> 00:27:34.319
so probably since the pandemic we have not had this period,

483
00:27:34.880 --> 00:27:38.039
a period like this of this level of uncertainty, and

484
00:27:38.119 --> 00:27:42.000
that the markets are skiddish volatile is not a surprise

485
00:27:42.119 --> 00:27:43.240
in the least.

486
00:27:43.480 --> 00:27:46.200
One of the metrics that we use to measure the

487
00:27:46.279 --> 00:27:50.440
volatility or the craziness that the market is experiencing is

488
00:27:50.480 --> 00:27:55.039
that VIX. The VIX and it's technically an index you

489
00:27:55.519 --> 00:27:57.160
can I guess bet on it, but it doesn't really

490
00:27:57.160 --> 00:28:00.240
work very well. It's more just used as a metric tool.

491
00:28:00.480 --> 00:28:03.359
And it's a volatility index that measures the volatility on

492
00:28:03.400 --> 00:28:05.960
the S and P five hundred and like you're saying, Dave, yeah,

493
00:28:06.039 --> 00:28:08.519
going back five years, we haven't seen that level of

494
00:28:08.559 --> 00:28:12.440
volatility other than that yen carry trade meltdown.

495
00:28:11.960 --> 00:28:13.960
That day for one day, one day.

496
00:28:14.039 --> 00:28:16.160
Other than that, since the pandemic, we have not seen

497
00:28:16.200 --> 00:28:20.000
the volatility index that high. So the extreme level of fear.

498
00:28:19.839 --> 00:28:21.759
And I think they're right to be volatile right now.

499
00:28:22.519 --> 00:28:25.440
Everyone you talk to they don't know. The economy is

500
00:28:25.480 --> 00:28:28.799
clearly slowing down. I've been asking everybody I talk to,

501
00:28:29.000 --> 00:28:33.279
just out of curiosity, how's your business? What are you experiencing?

502
00:28:33.319 --> 00:28:37.000
Are you're seeing any cancelation? And every single person I'm

503
00:28:37.039 --> 00:28:39.559
talking to is saying no, things are slowing down. Where

504
00:28:39.599 --> 00:28:43.319
we've had canceled orders, we've had canceled jobs. I have

505
00:28:43.359 --> 00:28:46.079
a friend who runs a concrete fabricating company as one

506
00:28:46.119 --> 00:28:50.240
hundred employees, and he said this is reminiscent of COVID,

507
00:28:50.440 --> 00:28:54.319
where everyone he's dealing with is raising prices because they can,

508
00:28:55.440 --> 00:28:58.519
because they can, because with tariffs, you think, well, everything's

509
00:28:58.519 --> 00:29:01.440
going to be more expensive, right, so they're raising prices

510
00:29:01.519 --> 00:29:02.359
because they can't.

511
00:29:02.559 --> 00:29:05.119
Well, why isn't Elizabeth Warming going out and saying something

512
00:29:05.119 --> 00:29:07.359
about that. Why because she wants prices to rise, because

513
00:29:07.400 --> 00:29:09.160
she wants them to be able to say, Oh, you

514
00:29:09.200 --> 00:29:11.240
see the prices rise and people can't afford stuff.

515
00:29:11.759 --> 00:29:13.400
You know what that's wrong.

516
00:29:13.559 --> 00:29:17.119
Don't raise prices just because you can raise prices.

517
00:29:16.720 --> 00:29:17.559
When you have to.

518
00:29:17.759 --> 00:29:20.720
Yeah, I've got a friend who works in the furniture store.

519
00:29:20.759 --> 00:29:23.400
They went through the entire store marked everything up ten

520
00:29:23.440 --> 00:29:28.119
percent everything. Are they experiencing costs increases?

521
00:29:28.200 --> 00:29:29.319
No, No, of course no.

522
00:29:29.440 --> 00:29:32.240
But it's just just in case, just in case.

523
00:29:32.279 --> 00:29:34.119
And it's unfortunate too, because you know, even if they

524
00:29:34.160 --> 00:29:36.720
did have like a two percent cost increase, they're going

525
00:29:36.759 --> 00:29:40.559
to push it up twelve percent, right because even still, yeah,

526
00:29:40.599 --> 00:29:42.200
they're going to have an extra additional margin.

527
00:29:42.279 --> 00:29:44.160
Well, it's an easy excuse as well. I mean you

528
00:29:44.160 --> 00:29:46.279
can immediately do it like you're saying they're gonna do it,

529
00:29:46.319 --> 00:29:48.039
even though if it gets positive not They're like, the

530
00:29:49.400 --> 00:29:51.480
maybe of it happening is, we're just gonna do it.

531
00:29:51.920 --> 00:29:54.160
You know what's common. You've seen TV, right, you.

532
00:29:54.200 --> 00:29:57.279
Know it's justified. It's like, I mean that even happens.

533
00:29:57.319 --> 00:29:58.359
Like hairdressers.

534
00:29:58.400 --> 00:30:01.559
It's like those fuel surd charges they put years ago

535
00:30:01.519 --> 00:30:02.200
there still.

536
00:30:02.000 --> 00:30:05.279
There doubled, like a hairdresser double their prices.

537
00:30:05.640 --> 00:30:10.039
That's interesting because the cosmetic stocks have really gotten hit

538
00:30:10.279 --> 00:30:14.119
in this drop and Cody was the latest this week.

539
00:30:14.279 --> 00:30:17.240
C o t Y the hair products and make up

540
00:30:17.319 --> 00:30:19.839
things of that nature. That's one of the one of

541
00:30:19.880 --> 00:30:22.839
the things that you can delay. If you get a

542
00:30:22.880 --> 00:30:25.440
haircut every four weeks, you can get it every six.

543
00:30:25.319 --> 00:30:29.079
Weeks though, huh will you?

544
00:30:29.160 --> 00:30:31.799
Well yeah, well, and I couldn't look like.

545
00:30:31.839 --> 00:30:36.000
You you, I couldn't look like you got your everyday

546
00:30:36.079 --> 00:30:37.599
slimmed up, probably for the least the.

547
00:30:37.720 --> 00:30:38.880
Next six to twelve months.

548
00:30:38.960 --> 00:30:46.559
Yeah, he has a hairdresser. We have barbarous He has

549
00:30:46.599 --> 00:30:47.119
a hairdresser.

550
00:30:47.119 --> 00:30:48.720
You no, no, look at my hair, are you kidding me?

551
00:30:49.440 --> 00:30:51.839
Well, you got one stock that never really has to

552
00:30:51.839 --> 00:30:54.200
worry about all this uncertainty, and it seems is like,

553
00:30:54.480 --> 00:30:57.160
because in COVID it did really well as Netflix because

554
00:30:57.680 --> 00:31:01.400
during COVID volatility, everybody was home so they just watched Netflix,

555
00:31:01.720 --> 00:31:04.160
so their earnings were good. They beat earnings by thirteen

556
00:31:04.160 --> 00:31:09.400
percent this last quarter, mostly by increasing subscriptions that they thought.

557
00:31:09.559 --> 00:31:12.960
They also increased the prices of each subscription per person,

558
00:31:13.000 --> 00:31:14.559
so they're gonna make more money. But there was just

559
00:31:14.559 --> 00:31:17.279
a higher new subscriptions and all that. Yeah, I mean

560
00:31:17.480 --> 00:31:19.920
that's gonna happen. And also people are like, Okay, if

561
00:31:19.920 --> 00:31:21.359
I can't afford to do this, I'll just stay home

562
00:31:21.359 --> 00:31:22.079
and watch Netflix.

563
00:31:22.200 --> 00:31:26.160
Yeah, it's coming almost like a consumer staple let itself

564
00:31:26.160 --> 00:31:28.200
into something that's like they won't get rid of that.

565
00:31:28.319 --> 00:31:32.319
It's gonna continue being that because now coming through NFL season,

566
00:31:32.319 --> 00:31:34.279
they're gonna have more NFL games on there, so more

567
00:31:34.319 --> 00:31:36.440
people are gonna get Netflix, and they're starting to they're

568
00:31:36.480 --> 00:31:38.839
trying to get more into sports, live sports, so you're

569
00:31:38.839 --> 00:31:41.519
gonna have even more Netflix is a great company to

570
00:31:41.519 --> 00:31:41.880
get into.

571
00:31:42.039 --> 00:31:44.240
Well, they're just so much better than everybody else.

572
00:31:44.559 --> 00:31:46.240
I don't know, I don't even know about that.

573
00:31:46.319 --> 00:31:46.720
I mean.

574
00:31:48.200 --> 00:31:50.920
Apple TV. I think Apples so much better with.

575
00:31:53.880 --> 00:31:57.200
Okay, yeah, yeah, the content that's Apple. Yeah, I mean

576
00:31:57.200 --> 00:31:59.960
they showed the rankings of how many users. Apples the lead,

577
00:32:00.599 --> 00:32:03.279
and then it goes the top is Netflix obviously, Amazon

578
00:32:03.319 --> 00:32:06.359
Prime is second, then it goes Disney, then it goes Hbo, Max.

579
00:32:06.319 --> 00:32:08.960
Buy Paramount Plus. Every time I see some one Paramount plus,

580
00:32:09.000 --> 00:32:13.519
I want to shoot myself. Paramount plus horrible.

581
00:32:13.680 --> 00:32:15.240
Paramount is family.

582
00:32:15.680 --> 00:32:19.279
Oh, go through Prime, No paramunt Plus.

583
00:32:20.039 --> 00:32:21.920
You can go through Prime to get Plus.

584
00:32:22.079 --> 00:32:22.960
Yeah, you go through Prime.

585
00:32:23.359 --> 00:32:26.680
Yeah, yeah, I got my Max through Prime.

586
00:32:27.480 --> 00:32:30.079
You can get other subscriptions through Prime, which then it

587
00:32:30.079 --> 00:32:32.200
takes care of everything, which is a.

588
00:32:32.160 --> 00:32:34.279
Cool thing that Amazon does, because what we're basically saying

589
00:32:34.279 --> 00:32:36.759
for people who don't know is you can you have Amazon,

590
00:32:36.759 --> 00:32:39.680
which is its own content on Amazon obviously, but you

591
00:32:39.680 --> 00:32:42.640
can also incorporate your Prime, your Hulu, your you can

592
00:32:42.720 --> 00:32:46.960
have all their channels, your other subscriptions in the Prime app.

593
00:32:47.079 --> 00:32:48.960
You maybe need to shut down after the show because.

594
00:32:48.799 --> 00:32:51.480
I am GM all day.

595
00:32:51.640 --> 00:32:53.960
Yeah, at the top, it's so much easier.

596
00:32:54.000 --> 00:32:57.440
Every month, So you subscribe my mortgage, you know.

597
00:32:59.160 --> 00:32:59.519
The same.

598
00:32:59.559 --> 00:33:02.559
You can you could pay pay everything through your Amazon account.

599
00:33:02.599 --> 00:33:05.279
That's the purpose of it, except Netflix, except for Yeah,

600
00:33:05.279 --> 00:33:06.640
they don't let you incorporate Netflix.

601
00:33:06.759 --> 00:33:10.400
Interesting, well I did so if you had we all

602
00:33:10.400 --> 00:33:10.920
have Amazon.

603
00:33:11.039 --> 00:33:14.920
Just so you have an Apple count Amazon, I'm a

604
00:33:14.960 --> 00:33:16.960
Prime account, which you do. Of course, you get rid

605
00:33:17.000 --> 00:33:18.920
of the Prime account and you go to Apple and

606
00:33:18.960 --> 00:33:21.440
your bundle. You go to a Prime and you bundle it.

607
00:33:21.559 --> 00:33:23.279
Yeah. Wait wait, wait, you just get rid of the

608
00:33:23.279 --> 00:33:26.880
primary he said, he said, you said paramount Yeah, I apologize.

609
00:33:26.920 --> 00:33:27.680
You just get rid of it.

610
00:33:27.759 --> 00:33:30.680
You get rid of Paramount Plus and you just bundle

611
00:33:30.720 --> 00:33:31.480
it with Amazon.

612
00:33:33.119 --> 00:33:36.279
Basically you buy Paramount Plus through your Amazon account. That's

613
00:33:36.279 --> 00:33:36.839
what's happening.

614
00:33:36.880 --> 00:33:38.640
And at the end of day, this helps Amazon stock

615
00:33:38.680 --> 00:33:39.160
even more.

616
00:33:39.440 --> 00:33:42.599
Yeah, because everything is in one portal. Then instead of

617
00:33:42.599 --> 00:33:45.240
having to change apps to wash your stuff, all your

618
00:33:45.240 --> 00:33:47.160
stuff is in one big thing. It's like having a

619
00:33:47.200 --> 00:33:49.720
TV like it's like a dish of all your streams.

620
00:33:49.839 --> 00:33:52.200
Because if you buy them individually, it's cheaper to go

621
00:33:52.279 --> 00:33:54.799
through an Amazon and bundle it all. You get to

622
00:33:54.920 --> 00:33:56.960
save a couple of bucks on each one each month.

623
00:33:57.119 --> 00:33:57.440
Yeah.

624
00:33:57.559 --> 00:33:59.160
I'm not sure about your bundle thing, but.

625
00:34:00.160 --> 00:34:03.319
Done the bundle, yeah, bundle bab Yeah.

626
00:34:03.480 --> 00:34:03.640
Yeah.

627
00:34:03.799 --> 00:34:05.799
They're talking a little bit more about the slowdown. It

628
00:34:05.920 --> 00:34:08.920
was a kind of an interesting statistic. Uh, supply of

629
00:34:09.079 --> 00:34:12.159
new vehicles has gone from ninety one days to seventy

630
00:34:12.239 --> 00:34:13.679
days in the last month.

631
00:34:14.000 --> 00:34:15.280
Okay, so people are buying.

632
00:34:15.079 --> 00:34:17.280
From ninety one days to seventies. They're buying like mad.

633
00:34:17.679 --> 00:34:20.760
Uh used cars that already were hot declined by four

634
00:34:20.840 --> 00:34:23.679
days down to thirty nine days. And of course we

635
00:34:23.719 --> 00:34:26.320
saw retail sales. Todd you and I were a little

636
00:34:26.360 --> 00:34:29.360
surprised about March. Retail sales were so strong, and then

637
00:34:29.400 --> 00:34:32.719
we thought, duh, everybody's rushing out to buy stuff. I

638
00:34:32.760 --> 00:34:36.079
thought the head of the tear off the tax refund Yeah,

639
00:34:36.079 --> 00:34:37.840
well multiplely come in April.

640
00:34:38.119 --> 00:34:41.480
Yeah, but I think a lot of people get yeah

641
00:34:41.480 --> 00:34:42.320
I got of March.

642
00:34:42.480 --> 00:34:45.400
Yeah, the people that got to use it tax refunds. No.

643
00:34:45.480 --> 00:34:47.440
But I think you're right. I think you're right with

644
00:34:47.480 --> 00:34:49.280
them trying to beat the beat it to the punch.

645
00:34:49.360 --> 00:34:50.360
Of course, I cat March.

646
00:34:50.559 --> 00:34:52.280
I think that when we saw the one point four

647
00:34:52.280 --> 00:34:55.320
percent coming off a negative, we're like, that seems too high.

648
00:34:55.599 --> 00:34:57.880
Ended up beating that expectations came in I think at

649
00:34:57.880 --> 00:35:00.119
one point six. So the idea that we're gonn have

650
00:35:00.119 --> 00:35:02.559
a negative GDP just seems like impossible when you have

651
00:35:02.599 --> 00:35:03.840
that high of a retail sales.

652
00:35:04.119 --> 00:35:04.880
It does.

653
00:35:05.039 --> 00:35:07.840
So I don't think everyone's like we're in recession already.

654
00:35:08.000 --> 00:35:09.800
I don't think that. I think quarter one was a

655
00:35:09.840 --> 00:35:12.639
positive growth quarter. Okay, quarter two, yeah, possibly we have

656
00:35:12.960 --> 00:35:15.440
we're in negative right now. Does feel like we're growing

657
00:35:15.920 --> 00:35:18.280
right now. But the idea that quarter one just fell

658
00:35:18.280 --> 00:35:19.880
off a cliff, I don't think we're gonna see that

659
00:35:19.880 --> 00:35:21.000
when earned reports come out.

660
00:35:21.079 --> 00:35:24.320
Now, we get the we get the GDP report April thirtieth,

661
00:35:24.320 --> 00:35:26.559
and it really is kind of a mood point. Whether

662
00:35:26.559 --> 00:35:28.639
we're in recession or not, it feels like it. Yeah,

663
00:35:28.719 --> 00:35:30.320
it feels like we're gonna pull back. Period.

664
00:35:30.360 --> 00:35:31.719
A period should.

665
00:35:31.480 --> 00:35:33.480
Not only mean call it it's a colotionary pee wee

666
00:35:33.480 --> 00:35:35.920
because we don't know what's going on. People saving some

667
00:35:35.960 --> 00:35:38.360
money to stop buying some stuff in case they have

668
00:35:38.400 --> 00:35:40.000
to do it. They're buying what they need, not what

669
00:35:40.000 --> 00:35:43.639
they want right now until until things go forward, and

670
00:35:43.679 --> 00:35:46.159
then we'll see and then at that time we'll change.

671
00:35:46.280 --> 00:35:49.639
Right now, nobody knows, So enjoy your weekend until we

672
00:35:49.719 --> 00:35:50.800
know we'll be right back.

673
00:35:50.840 --> 00:35:51.880
It's the Money by the Show.

674
00:35:52.880 --> 00:35:54.679
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

675
00:35:54.719 --> 00:35:58.159
toddlik I'm here with Dean Greenberg, David Sherwood, and Dylan Greenberg.

676
00:35:58.480 --> 00:36:00.679
It was a good week in the mark. It's for some,

677
00:36:00.960 --> 00:36:03.719
but for most it wasn't. Gold was where the place

678
00:36:03.800 --> 00:36:06.760
to be was the high new all time h thirty

679
00:36:06.920 --> 00:36:08.760
three fifty I think it hit at one.

680
00:36:08.639 --> 00:36:09.679
Point, Yeah, I think it was.

681
00:36:10.519 --> 00:36:13.719
Interestingly, Bitcoin didn't really move it down either. It kind

682
00:36:13.719 --> 00:36:15.440
of just stayed flat throughout the week.

683
00:36:15.480 --> 00:36:18.280
They actually gained a couple of percent. Yeah, Friday and Friday.

684
00:36:18.280 --> 00:36:20.320
I mean, I know it's open all the time, so target,

685
00:36:21.039 --> 00:36:24.079
where are you measuring from? But the what I use

686
00:36:24.159 --> 00:36:26.800
is the ETF right, and the Bitcoin ETF was up

687
00:36:26.840 --> 00:36:28.079
about two percent on the week.

688
00:36:28.119 --> 00:36:29.920
Another place to hide, it seemed like, was oil. I

689
00:36:30.079 --> 00:36:31.960
did actually get a bid throughout the week, finished at

690
00:36:32.000 --> 00:36:34.639
sixty seven dollars a barrel came back from its low

691
00:36:35.440 --> 00:36:36.159
sixty four to fifty.

692
00:36:36.119 --> 00:36:39.639
Sorry, yeah, three bucks, that's okay, three bucks. Yeah. Gold

693
00:36:39.719 --> 00:36:44.320
up ninety one dollars to thirty three thirteen. Treasury yields

694
00:36:44.400 --> 00:36:47.800
dropped a little bit after spiking last week. You'd expect

695
00:36:47.800 --> 00:36:49.159
there'd be a bit of a pullback.

696
00:36:49.360 --> 00:36:51.280
Yeah, And I want to say about the gold, I

697
00:36:51.320 --> 00:36:54.320
did read a report that China's buying way more gold

698
00:36:54.360 --> 00:36:56.559
out of their central bank than their reporting. You know

699
00:36:56.599 --> 00:36:58.639
how we went through the reports of how much they're buying.

700
00:36:58.960 --> 00:37:01.320
They're buying way more than what's actually on paper, which

701
00:37:01.360 --> 00:37:03.079
makes sense. I mean when did they ever tell the truth?

702
00:37:03.199 --> 00:37:06.000
Of course, but that makes a lot of sense what

703
00:37:06.000 --> 00:37:07.679
we were saying. You look at that chart, it's just

704
00:37:07.760 --> 00:37:10.880
parabolic right now. It's a tough thing to buy. I mean,

705
00:37:10.920 --> 00:37:12.360
you hear a lot of people, do we buy gold here?

706
00:37:12.400 --> 00:37:16.320
Do you buy gold now? A lot of clients ask it.

707
00:37:16.320 --> 00:37:18.000
It's a tough thing to buy. When you look at

708
00:37:18.000 --> 00:37:19.719
a chart that goes straight up, it could.

709
00:37:19.559 --> 00:37:21.599
Easily drop a thousand bucks without any reason.

710
00:37:21.679 --> 00:37:24.400
Yeah, it's like, what's your goal with gold? You like,

711
00:37:24.440 --> 00:37:26.199
if you want to buy gold, what is your goal is?

712
00:37:26.199 --> 00:37:29.000
It's something going on with gold that we were talking

713
00:37:29.039 --> 00:37:30.159
about this the other I agree.

714
00:37:30.199 --> 00:37:30.719
I agree.

715
00:37:30.880 --> 00:37:33.840
I've been never been a gold bug, Okay, I've never

716
00:37:33.880 --> 00:37:37.519
bought gold for inflationary times. I never bought gold because

717
00:37:37.599 --> 00:37:40.519
of fear. Okay, I know that's why. Because those three

718
00:37:40.559 --> 00:37:44.079
things make it go down. There's something else going on.

719
00:37:44.599 --> 00:37:46.679
Because I'm watching the dollar go down and Todd and

720
00:37:46.719 --> 00:37:48.440
I would talk about this the other day, and I'm

721
00:37:48.480 --> 00:37:53.199
watching gold go higher. I think there's a globalization of

722
00:37:53.320 --> 00:37:56.400
changing the way we look at the dollar and the

723
00:37:56.440 --> 00:37:58.519
rest of the stuff. We've heard this for years. Okay,

724
00:37:59.039 --> 00:38:01.280
that doesn't mean that we don't do better when the

725
00:38:01.360 --> 00:38:04.000
dollar goes down. We always say we want a strong dollar,

726
00:38:04.239 --> 00:38:07.639
except when the dollar is weak, it's so much easier

727
00:38:07.639 --> 00:38:10.840
for people to go ahead and do business with us,

728
00:38:11.039 --> 00:38:13.519
come to our country. It's cheaper for them to come

729
00:38:13.559 --> 00:38:15.920
here for us to go there. There's a lot of

730
00:38:15.960 --> 00:38:19.480
things that benefit us when the dollar is lower. But somehow,

731
00:38:19.599 --> 00:38:22.000
some way, we got to figure out what's going to

732
00:38:22.079 --> 00:38:24.719
happen here and why it's happening. One of the things

733
00:38:24.719 --> 00:38:27.840
we keep hearing about is this a sovereign wealth fund

734
00:38:28.440 --> 00:38:32.079
that Trump did an executive offers. You know, countries that

735
00:38:32.239 --> 00:38:36.519
have that, they support their countries with that. It's an

736
00:38:36.599 --> 00:38:40.039
investming fund. They buy stocks, they buy bonds, it's they

737
00:38:40.079 --> 00:38:43.760
control and help out their own countries with the extra

738
00:38:43.840 --> 00:38:45.760
door they have. But where do we get that from.

739
00:38:46.760 --> 00:38:48.599
What happens if that all of a sudden they monetize

740
00:38:48.599 --> 00:38:52.280
everything with gold? Okay, does that send the prices up

741
00:38:52.320 --> 00:38:55.760
to everything? Does everything now change on what's happening. And

742
00:38:55.840 --> 00:38:59.119
I don't know. There's something higher than I know what's

743
00:38:59.159 --> 00:39:02.199
going on. But there's something different about this gold move

744
00:39:02.719 --> 00:39:03.800
that I've ever seen before.

745
00:39:03.840 --> 00:39:05.880
He hasn't made sense for six months, Dean, and we've

746
00:39:05.920 --> 00:39:10.280
been talking about Todd thinks it's a what's the word

747
00:39:10.320 --> 00:39:12.000
I want to use? Effort?

748
00:39:12.239 --> 00:39:14.960
Yeah, I think it's an attack on the DO and

749
00:39:15.239 --> 00:39:15.880
very well could.

750
00:39:16.000 --> 00:39:19.280
But is there but but obviously if there is, we're

751
00:39:19.280 --> 00:39:20.239
allowing it to happen.

752
00:39:20.280 --> 00:39:22.360
Also, how do you stop it?

753
00:39:22.599 --> 00:39:24.599
Yeah, there is a point to that. Like Dave says,

754
00:39:24.639 --> 00:39:25.840
how do you stop it? I mean, there is a

755
00:39:25.840 --> 00:39:28.119
lot of shadow bank where the Federal Reserve, they talk

756
00:39:28.159 --> 00:39:30.320
about this all the time. They control the money supply,

757
00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:32.440
but there's a third of the money to play out

758
00:39:32.440 --> 00:39:34.639
there that the Fed cannot control because it's outside of

759
00:39:34.679 --> 00:39:38.920
the purview of their regulations what they control. It's pretty complicated,

760
00:39:38.960 --> 00:39:41.559
but really it's true there's a large part of the

761
00:39:41.599 --> 00:39:43.679
economy that they call dark money. They don't know where

762
00:39:43.679 --> 00:39:45.480
it is, what's what it's, what's happening with it?

763
00:39:46.239 --> 00:39:47.199
But is that is that?

764
00:39:47.599 --> 00:39:50.239
Is that the long term goal here of a sovereign

765
00:39:50.280 --> 00:39:52.920
wealth fund for the United States of America to be

766
00:39:53.000 --> 00:39:54.880
able to have this extra money to be able to

767
00:39:54.880 --> 00:39:56.320
do the things that they want to do. But where's

768
00:39:56.320 --> 00:39:58.320
it come from. It's got to come from someplace from US,

769
00:39:58.400 --> 00:39:59.079
you know what I'm saying.

770
00:39:59.320 --> 00:39:59.840
From US.

771
00:40:00.239 --> 00:40:02.599
It's got in a bitcoin business. Might as well be

772
00:40:02.639 --> 00:40:05.360
in the sovereign wealth business, right could It could be something?

773
00:40:05.440 --> 00:40:08.000
A great idea is, you know, for people under thirty

774
00:40:08.079 --> 00:40:10.960
or forty, you start putting a tiered part of whatever

775
00:40:11.000 --> 00:40:12.880
your SOL scurity, maybe twenty five percent or fifty percent

776
00:40:12.920 --> 00:40:14.840
of what you've been paying in sole security starts to

777
00:40:14.880 --> 00:40:18.159
go into maybe like a sovereign wealth fund, and start

778
00:40:18.280 --> 00:40:20.719
rethinking the idea of what SOL security needs to be

779
00:40:20.719 --> 00:40:24.280
looking like because it needs to be invested. It can't

780
00:40:24.320 --> 00:40:26.559
just be based on all the time.

781
00:40:26.719 --> 00:40:29.679
I mean, money's there with io US, see and see.

782
00:40:29.880 --> 00:40:32.119
And here here's the thing you remember and I know

783
00:40:32.119 --> 00:40:34.519
all I've talked to you about my plan about social security,

784
00:40:34.519 --> 00:40:37.000
that event and we start in two thousand would almost

785
00:40:37.039 --> 00:40:39.800
be there. And because it's a thirty year plan that

786
00:40:39.920 --> 00:40:42.840
eventually what happens is the money you have in social

787
00:40:42.840 --> 00:40:45.719
security that you plow you and your employee both put

788
00:40:45.760 --> 00:40:49.000
into your into your social security fund, your personal social

789
00:40:49.000 --> 00:40:53.679
security fund. You're buying us botom government bonds with right,

790
00:40:53.880 --> 00:40:55.880
you're buying our own government bonds. And we don't need

791
00:40:55.960 --> 00:40:58.760
China and everybody else in the world supporting our bond system.

792
00:40:59.079 --> 00:41:01.480
We have our own and we become wealthy that way,

793
00:41:01.639 --> 00:41:03.320
and interest rates stay lower.

794
00:41:03.760 --> 00:41:06.760
Here's the problem. It takes every single penny the young

795
00:41:06.800 --> 00:41:11.119
people are contributing to pay a fraction of the claims

796
00:41:11.199 --> 00:41:14.239
right now, so there's no extra money to start this

797
00:41:14.320 --> 00:41:15.519
other creative Oh, I.

798
00:41:15.519 --> 00:41:17.639
Understand that, But we have to look twenty five or

799
00:41:17.679 --> 00:41:20.360
thirty years out, Dave. They have to make a change.

800
00:41:20.440 --> 00:41:23.519
And if somewhere along the line there say that, say

801
00:41:23.519 --> 00:41:26.400
the fifteenth to the thirtieth year, we have to have

802
00:41:26.480 --> 00:41:30.800
subsidy from the government, okay, of three hundred four hundred,

803
00:41:30.800 --> 00:41:33.360
five hundred billion dollars and it goes down. It's the

804
00:41:33.400 --> 00:41:35.679
same amount of money we give around the world. And

805
00:41:36.079 --> 00:41:38.119
if we go broke, you think the world is going

806
00:41:38.199 --> 00:41:39.440
to start writing us checks.

807
00:41:39.480 --> 00:41:41.920
Nobody. No one's gonna write us checks nobody.

808
00:41:41.920 --> 00:41:44.000
And all these people that keep thinking all poor them,

809
00:41:44.039 --> 00:41:46.719
poor them, they're not thinking about oh, poor us and

810
00:41:47.199 --> 00:41:51.840
all because when that happens guess what, it ain't getting better.

811
00:41:53.440 --> 00:41:57.000
Also, people, I've heard this a lot because of the media,

812
00:41:57.280 --> 00:41:59.920
China owns US because they own all of our debts.

813
00:42:00.000 --> 00:42:00.800
It's just not true.

814
00:42:01.159 --> 00:42:01.679
Got fact.

815
00:42:02.159 --> 00:42:04.440
In fact, they're not even like the top three. Japan

816
00:42:04.519 --> 00:42:06.880
owns the most of our debt. They own like nine percent.

817
00:42:07.079 --> 00:42:09.639
Most of our debt is owned by US Americans institutions,

818
00:42:09.639 --> 00:42:12.119
financial institutions is not owned by China. They onwn like

819
00:42:12.159 --> 00:42:15.239
three percent. Have they been selling our debt? Yes, they

820
00:42:15.239 --> 00:42:17.519
have been. That's why rates have shot up. I mean

821
00:42:17.760 --> 00:42:20.280
they are trying to have a conservative effort to keep

822
00:42:20.360 --> 00:42:22.199
rates high because they know we have a lot of

823
00:42:22.239 --> 00:42:24.960
debt being refinanced in a year from now and in

824
00:42:25.000 --> 00:42:27.719
twenty seven. If they keep rates high, that puts pressure

825
00:42:28.199 --> 00:42:31.199
on the US government to potentially force Trump to not

826
00:42:31.559 --> 00:42:33.639
be as powerful in this trade ward negotiation.

827
00:42:34.880 --> 00:42:37.280
No, from lifetime, it's a lot easier to bring the

828
00:42:37.320 --> 00:42:40.079
person above you down it is for you to get

829
00:42:40.159 --> 00:42:40.599
up to them.

830
00:42:40.639 --> 00:42:42.719
So yeah, that seems like they're really the biggest effort

831
00:42:42.800 --> 00:42:44.840
right now is to get those interest rates high because

832
00:42:44.840 --> 00:42:46.400
like we've been talking about the last couple of weeks,

833
00:42:46.440 --> 00:42:48.880
is the idea of the adjustable rates that are going

834
00:42:48.960 --> 00:42:50.639
to becoming due in the next couple of years, which

835
00:42:50.679 --> 00:42:54.079
is roughly thirty six trillion dollars worth of debt that's

836
00:42:54.079 --> 00:42:58.400
going to be renewed or readjusted. So, I mean, that's

837
00:42:58.440 --> 00:43:00.440
a lot of debt. If the rates aren't lower by then,

838
00:43:00.840 --> 00:43:02.719
it's hurt a lot of people. Can put a lot

839
00:43:02.760 --> 00:43:05.360
of stress on the economy. So it's a big issue.

840
00:43:05.400 --> 00:43:07.760
And I know China's probably just thinking, Okay, that's really

841
00:43:07.760 --> 00:43:11.199
our only negotiating tool right now. But how much can

842
00:43:11.199 --> 00:43:12.639
they sell off before it doesn't matter.

843
00:43:13.400 --> 00:43:16.639
China doesn't have a really doesn't have a chance of

844
00:43:16.679 --> 00:43:19.679
winning this trade war. I don't care, you know, they don't.

845
00:43:19.840 --> 00:43:21.639
I guess the big thing for China is they don't

846
00:43:21.679 --> 00:43:24.519
have to answer to their people, right, just shut up,

847
00:43:24.559 --> 00:43:27.559
go over there and h we don't have that ability.

848
00:43:27.599 --> 00:43:29.639
So we're going to our leaders are going to get

849
00:43:29.679 --> 00:43:30.519
more pressure.

850
00:43:30.199 --> 00:43:32.599
Than their leaders. So that's China's only hope.

851
00:43:32.679 --> 00:43:35.159
But they sell us five widges for every one we

852
00:43:35.280 --> 00:43:35.679
sell them.

853
00:43:35.760 --> 00:43:37.800
They talk about your client that just came back from two.

854
00:43:37.639 --> 00:43:40.199
Weeks, came back from too. He actually was there for

855
00:43:40.239 --> 00:43:42.760
the past two weeks. What an amazing time to be

856
00:43:42.840 --> 00:43:46.679
in China, and he said workers are scared. Many of

857
00:43:46.719 --> 00:43:51.079
the factories are temporarily shutting down. I've got another client

858
00:43:51.079 --> 00:43:53.880
who said his firm is able to buy things that

859
00:43:54.039 --> 00:43:58.559
cost from China just to keep the factory operating. This

860
00:43:58.679 --> 00:44:01.920
is two weeks in Imagine if we're two months into this,

861
00:44:02.000 --> 00:44:04.639
what's going on over there? Their economy would be in collapse.

862
00:44:05.360 --> 00:44:09.559
And I wish our media and our economists would understand

863
00:44:09.599 --> 00:44:12.559
this more and tell people in America more like this,

864
00:44:12.760 --> 00:44:15.239
because people just think that China is this thing that

865
00:44:15.280 --> 00:44:16.559
can just roll by themselves.

866
00:44:17.119 --> 00:44:20.559
Bottom line is, China has no middle class. None.

867
00:44:21.079 --> 00:44:23.639
They talk about us, they have no middle class, which

868
00:44:23.679 --> 00:44:26.480
is why they have to depend on Europe and US

869
00:44:26.519 --> 00:44:29.559
to be buying their goods. And if we're not buying

870
00:44:29.559 --> 00:44:31.960
their goods because of the tariffs, they need their own

871
00:44:31.960 --> 00:44:34.480
people to buy it. Their own people can't buy anything.

872
00:44:34.639 --> 00:44:36.920
They can't afford to buy it because they're working for

873
00:44:36.960 --> 00:44:38.199
a dollar or two an hour.

874
00:44:39.000 --> 00:44:41.400
Right, we're just two weeks into this thing. They are

875
00:44:41.480 --> 00:44:43.960
already feeling at big time. Are we feeling at big time?

876
00:44:44.079 --> 00:44:44.239
No?

877
00:44:44.719 --> 00:44:47.000
No, but you're gonna act like we are because then

878
00:44:47.000 --> 00:44:48.639
you turn on the TV and that's what they're just

879
00:44:48.679 --> 00:44:51.599
speeling off and on and on, and the people don't

880
00:44:51.719 --> 00:44:54.960
understand the game theory of what Trump's playing. He understands

881
00:44:54.960 --> 00:44:58.079
that China has maybe four weeks max that they could

882
00:44:58.119 --> 00:45:00.639
handle onto this game before they have after cave in

883
00:45:00.719 --> 00:45:04.039
coming to negotiations, and they're already talking. I mean, we

884
00:45:04.079 --> 00:45:07.320
saw a Friday that Trump's putting together a bill to

885
00:45:07.679 --> 00:45:09.800
not a bill, but an agreement to keep TikTok, and

886
00:45:09.840 --> 00:45:12.800
now the deals in China hands. So there's already talks

887
00:45:12.840 --> 00:45:15.400
that are going to start. You know, two weeks from now,

888
00:45:15.400 --> 00:45:17.119
we're most likely going to have a deal because they

889
00:45:17.119 --> 00:45:17.639
can't sort.

890
00:45:17.519 --> 00:45:19.400
Of start with Japan and Vietnam. Yeah.

891
00:45:19.559 --> 00:45:22.440
I mean also a few days early last week, China

892
00:45:22.920 --> 00:45:25.800
fired their top negotiator with the US because they weren't

893
00:45:25.840 --> 00:45:26.599
doing a good job.

894
00:45:26.599 --> 00:45:28.599
Which, by the way, you know, all these teriff things

895
00:45:28.599 --> 00:45:30.960
had it going on, and we can't raise rates because

896
00:45:31.119 --> 00:45:34.679
a lower rates? Why did you lower their rates? How

897
00:45:34.679 --> 00:45:37.320
could they lower their rates? How could they lower rates?

898
00:45:37.320 --> 00:45:38.079
But we can't.

899
00:45:38.800 --> 00:45:41.199
Oh, I mean, they're in the same situation we are.

900
00:45:41.360 --> 00:45:43.920
They have a way worse economy. I mean, I don't

901
00:45:43.920 --> 00:45:46.119
think they're that bad as China, but I think the

902
00:45:46.280 --> 00:45:49.119
entire world is way worse than us, and I don't

903
00:45:49.159 --> 00:45:50.079
think we realized that.

904
00:45:50.440 --> 00:45:53.039
M I agree with you, we realize it.

905
00:45:53.760 --> 00:45:55.760
I just think Americans in general, they just think that

906
00:45:56.360 --> 00:45:59.039
obviously it's just so bad, but it's not.

907
00:45:59.239 --> 00:46:01.960
No, it's just got back from a weekend in Mexico

908
00:46:02.000 --> 00:46:03.079
and said, we are so lucky.

909
00:46:03.280 --> 00:46:05.920
Yeah, he'll be on the show letter with that family.

910
00:46:05.960 --> 00:46:08.000
And he came back and he said, I so appreciate

911
00:46:08.039 --> 00:46:10.039
my life and my job.

912
00:46:10.679 --> 00:46:13.480
Well, I was talking to Matthew and Dean Son about

913
00:46:13.559 --> 00:46:15.840
how a lot of people don't realize in Europe their

914
00:46:15.880 --> 00:46:18.320
mortgages are adjustable rates every five years. You get a

915
00:46:18.360 --> 00:46:20.920
new rate every more you can't that's your choice, That's

916
00:46:20.920 --> 00:46:22.719
how it is. You might be able to do a

917
00:46:22.719 --> 00:46:25.000
seven year adjustble instead of five year, but they're adjustables.

918
00:46:25.320 --> 00:46:27.639
Imagine every every set five seven years. You don't know

919
00:46:27.639 --> 00:46:29.079
what your life is gonna look like, your cash flow

920
00:46:29.119 --> 00:46:31.679
is gonna look like. And we just take it for granted.

921
00:46:31.679 --> 00:46:33.320
Of all the things that we've built up in this

922
00:46:33.320 --> 00:46:33.719
country and.

923
00:46:33.719 --> 00:46:36.760
How we're going right now with the terrorists, well, China

924
00:46:36.760 --> 00:46:38.920
has come out and they said they want they need

925
00:46:38.960 --> 00:46:42.280
more respect, all right, So that's that they said that publicly.

926
00:46:42.440 --> 00:46:45.920
They also want someone specific to deal with. So I

927
00:46:45.960 --> 00:46:47.880
mean that that sound to you like somebody who's not

928
00:46:47.920 --> 00:46:49.039
interested in talking about this.

929
00:46:49.480 --> 00:46:51.920
No, they're all coming to little things, and Trump's doing

930
00:46:51.920 --> 00:46:53.480
the same thing back and forth.

931
00:46:53.559 --> 00:46:56.159
Oh, TikTok, it's in China's hands. We're willing to do this.

932
00:46:56.360 --> 00:46:57.320
We're willing to do that.

933
00:46:57.599 --> 00:46:59.440
What it comes down to is you get little bits

934
00:46:59.480 --> 00:47:01.880
and pieces which in the end they're gonna have to

935
00:47:01.920 --> 00:47:04.679
come together, and in the end Europe is gonna have

936
00:47:04.679 --> 00:47:06.599
to come together if they ever want to go ahead

937
00:47:06.639 --> 00:47:09.199
and keep NATO. Okay, they just do. Who else is

938
00:47:09.199 --> 00:47:12.360
gonna protect them and have fun? Dexico and everything else?

939
00:47:12.840 --> 00:47:13.239
All right?

940
00:47:13.360 --> 00:47:15.760
Bottom line is we have a hard break coming up.

941
00:47:15.800 --> 00:47:17.800
We'll be back for another hour of The Moneymatter Show.

942
00:47:18.079 --> 00:47:21.039
As I said before, we appreciate your listening. You need

943
00:47:21.079 --> 00:47:23.559
to come see us if you need to know where

944
00:47:23.599 --> 00:47:26.480
you stand, how to make gate risk, what your plan is.

945
00:47:26.519 --> 00:47:28.920
We will do a free financial plan for you if

946
00:47:28.920 --> 00:47:29.519
you come see us.

947
00:47:29.559 --> 00:47:31.119
We'll be right back. It's the Money Matter Show.

948
00:47:32.320 --> 00:47:34.519
Welcome back to the second hour of The Money Matter Show.

949
00:47:34.559 --> 00:47:38.039
I'm doing Greenberg here with Todd Glick Dave Sherwitz, Bashian Borsini,

950
00:47:38.079 --> 00:47:40.760
and Dean Greenberg. We got the full house. We didn't

951
00:47:40.760 --> 00:47:42.280
have a great week in the markets last week. For

952
00:47:42.280 --> 00:47:43.880
those of you just tuning in, the Dow was down

953
00:47:43.920 --> 00:47:46.320
two point seven percent, the SMP was down one and

954
00:47:46.360 --> 00:47:49.000
a half percent, the Nasdaq was down two point six percent,

955
00:47:49.320 --> 00:47:51.039
and the rest of two thousand was up one point

956
00:47:51.039 --> 00:47:54.320
two percent. The interesting thing was RSP was up point

957
00:47:54.320 --> 00:47:56.360
four percent, which is the equal way to SMP.

958
00:47:56.559 --> 00:47:59.159
How about that. Yeah, that's actually the market.

959
00:47:58.880 --> 00:48:01.239
Well, yeah, which is Marcus. So as you can see,

960
00:48:01.679 --> 00:48:04.679
mostly tech. It was driven down by tech. And that's

961
00:48:04.760 --> 00:48:07.079
also because the Nvidio got hit hard last week when

962
00:48:07.079 --> 00:48:09.239
they were said that they can't sell five point five

963
00:48:09.239 --> 00:48:12.519
billion dollars worth of product to China, so that's going

964
00:48:12.559 --> 00:48:15.880
to hit them, and that that stock took a downturn.

965
00:48:16.199 --> 00:48:18.480
We talked about though, I mean day of this week.

966
00:48:18.519 --> 00:48:20.920
The industrials had a good week. Boeing, I mean top

967
00:48:21.000 --> 00:48:22.039
Dallas stocking.

968
00:48:22.199 --> 00:48:25.039
Monday morning, China comes down and says we're not going

969
00:48:25.079 --> 00:48:27.480
to allow our airlines to buy any more Boying stock,

970
00:48:28.599 --> 00:48:29.239
and the stock.

971
00:48:29.199 --> 00:48:31.079
Was performing planes.

972
00:48:31.599 --> 00:48:36.239
Thank you, I don't buy a stock either, right, Yeah,

973
00:48:36.239 --> 00:48:38.639
And the stock was the best performing Dallas stock of

974
00:48:38.679 --> 00:48:42.079
the week, gained about four or five percent. I had

975
00:48:42.079 --> 00:48:44.199
a client call on Monday. On Tuesday and said, yeah,

976
00:48:44.599 --> 00:48:46.400
I think we ought to sell Boying because they're not

977
00:48:46.400 --> 00:48:49.440
gonna be able to know this is a negotiating tool.

978
00:48:49.880 --> 00:48:51.880
This is and what the market is telling you is

979
00:48:52.119 --> 00:48:53.159
none that's not going to happen.

980
00:48:53.440 --> 00:48:54.960
The stock was so long, I mean we were talking

981
00:48:55.000 --> 00:48:58.920
pre pandemic uh well middle pandemic lows. I mean it

982
00:48:58.960 --> 00:49:02.199
was quite impressed that it got that low. And it's

983
00:49:02.199 --> 00:49:03.599
like this company is going to go out of business.

984
00:49:03.599 --> 00:49:04.719
I mean, there's it.

985
00:49:04.679 --> 00:49:07.719
It's a giant game of chicken right now. And China's

986
00:49:07.800 --> 00:49:11.599
using Boying and they're using the rare earth minerals yes,

987
00:49:11.599 --> 00:49:16.960
and Trump is using nvidio chips and our technology in

988
00:49:17.039 --> 00:49:18.559
bat Well, you're not going to get it, is well,

989
00:49:18.559 --> 00:49:20.440
then you're not going to get It's just a little

990
00:49:20.519 --> 00:49:23.800
children playing a big game of chicken. Yes, a big

991
00:49:23.840 --> 00:49:27.920
game of chicken. It struck me that that I did

992
00:49:27.960 --> 00:49:32.920
not know a lot about rare earth minerals. I want

993
00:49:32.920 --> 00:49:35.199
to talk about that a little bit. But first of

994
00:49:35.239 --> 00:49:37.480
the the nvidio thing, Uh, you want to talk a

995
00:49:37.480 --> 00:49:39.559
little bit about what happened there with them down ten

996
00:49:39.599 --> 00:49:42.360
percent on Wednesday after the ship maker said it's going

997
00:49:42.440 --> 00:49:46.320
to take a five point five billion dollar charge tied

998
00:49:46.360 --> 00:49:49.880
to this exporting of the the Age twenty graphics processors

999
00:49:49.920 --> 00:49:52.639
to China. And what that what that says to me

1000
00:49:52.840 --> 00:49:56.679
is and because Trump is going to require a license.

1001
00:49:56.760 --> 00:49:58.920
Now this is for for now this week, this is

1002
00:49:58.960 --> 00:50:03.320
this week's news, right, Trump's gonna require a special license

1003
00:50:03.639 --> 00:50:06.920
to be able to sell to certain countries, including China

1004
00:50:07.760 --> 00:50:11.599
and uh in, Nvidia by saying we're gonna take that

1005
00:50:11.639 --> 00:50:14.639
five point five billion dollar charge is telling you that

1006
00:50:14.679 --> 00:50:16.800
they don't think they're gonna get one of those licenses.

1007
00:50:17.599 --> 00:50:20.159
A MD down eight hundred million. They don't think they're

1008
00:50:20.159 --> 00:50:22.559
gonna get one of those licenses either. I'm not down

1009
00:50:22.639 --> 00:50:25.519
eight hundred million, said that they'll take an eight hundred

1010
00:50:25.519 --> 00:50:29.079
million dollar charge. Down seven percent, Yeah, back and forth,

1011
00:50:29.079 --> 00:50:31.719
back and forth, now down like sixty percent from the

1012
00:50:31.800 --> 00:50:35.159
high AMD. It's just it's just gotten obliterated. But again,

1013
00:50:35.199 --> 00:50:38.519
these are just bargaining tools and uh that these companies

1014
00:50:38.599 --> 00:50:41.480
are reacting to that, well, it's because this is cya stuff.

1015
00:50:42.039 --> 00:50:44.199
You know, if it does, if that's our new if

1016
00:50:44.239 --> 00:50:47.400
this is our new world order, where China's gonna have

1017
00:50:47.400 --> 00:50:50.079
one hundred and fifty percent roiffs and we're gonna have

1018
00:50:50.079 --> 00:50:52.320
one hundred and twenty five. We got some real problems.

1019
00:50:52.559 --> 00:50:55.159
If this is the new world Order, it's not gonna

1020
00:50:55.199 --> 00:50:57.360
be pretty right, But it's not a new world.

1021
00:50:57.440 --> 00:50:59.400
It won't be And and you're one hundred percent right.

1022
00:50:59.440 --> 00:51:01.880
It's a big game of chicken, and they're playing with

1023
00:51:01.960 --> 00:51:04.159
their variables that they have on each side. And at

1024
00:51:04.159 --> 00:51:06.320
the end of the day, though we know that the

1025
00:51:06.320 --> 00:51:10.440
AI revolution is here to stay. These companies, these new

1026
00:51:10.480 --> 00:51:12.000
projects that we don't even know that are going to

1027
00:51:12.039 --> 00:51:13.840
be coming online. There's a lot of chips. And we

1028
00:51:13.840 --> 00:51:18.559
were talking about the new DVR, the TV cocks box

1029
00:51:18.599 --> 00:51:21.480
that they replaced our old ones. The new one has

1030
00:51:21.679 --> 00:51:24.440
got to be what tenth of the size size of

1031
00:51:24.480 --> 00:51:27.039
a pack of cigarettes, right compared to like what used

1032
00:51:27.039 --> 00:51:30.639
to be a big novel, like a textbook, a VC player.

1033
00:51:30.800 --> 00:51:33.639
Right now it's just the side of a pack of cigarettes. Yeah,

1034
00:51:33.679 --> 00:51:36.440
and that pack of cigarette thing probably has more semiconductors

1035
00:51:36.440 --> 00:51:39.960
in it than the big you know, VCR looking things

1036
00:51:40.000 --> 00:51:42.679
phenomenal and we and it's like that's where we're headed.

1037
00:51:42.719 --> 00:51:45.000
And that's maybe what ten years, fifteen years, And.

1038
00:51:44.920 --> 00:51:46.960
If the guy who installed them had knocked our phones

1039
00:51:46.960 --> 00:51:48.480
out for two days, you would all be able to

1040
00:51:48.480 --> 00:51:52.199
call it. If you did try to call us last week,

1041
00:51:52.199 --> 00:51:55.960
we do apologize. But Friday, a week aldgo, Friday at noon,

1042
00:51:56.639 --> 00:51:58.880
the guy came out and put in these new uh

1043
00:51:59.159 --> 00:52:02.360
whatever what they called cable boxes. Cable box. That's good,

1044
00:52:02.440 --> 00:52:08.800
that's good term. And because I can understand that it's.

1045
00:52:08.719 --> 00:52:10.840
Not a ro it's the old version of a rokue.

1046
00:52:10.880 --> 00:52:14.199
It's a cable I get that, but I'm thinking of

1047
00:52:14.440 --> 00:52:15.880
what the modem.

1048
00:52:16.320 --> 00:52:20.639
That's so you can get the roku. No, this is

1049
00:52:20.639 --> 00:52:23.639
your generation. This is cable Yeah, I get cable box.

1050
00:52:23.760 --> 00:52:24.760
I know what a cable box.

1051
00:52:24.800 --> 00:52:25.480
That's all that was.

1052
00:52:25.800 --> 00:52:27.920
It's just very small. The new ones are very small,

1053
00:52:28.519 --> 00:52:29.719
needs to be anyway.

1054
00:52:29.719 --> 00:52:32.280
But that's that's the good thing about Obviously, yes there's

1055
00:52:32.280 --> 00:52:35.119
some turmoil with the semiconductors, but if you look at

1056
00:52:35.119 --> 00:52:38.880
that space, we those those companies are not going anywhere

1057
00:52:39.079 --> 00:52:41.800
once these tariff things get solved. There's a lot of

1058
00:52:41.800 --> 00:52:45.159
countries that need them regardless. And China wasn't even getting

1059
00:52:45.199 --> 00:52:47.119
the black ones, I mean the great ones. Anyways, the

1060
00:52:47.119 --> 00:52:51.400
Blackwell chips, So what happens when they start getting those

1061
00:52:51.440 --> 00:52:54.920
ones as well? I mean, nothing to be scared about

1062
00:52:54.960 --> 00:52:55.360
with these things.

1063
00:52:56.400 --> 00:53:00.159
What's happening is opportunities are being created in a lot

1064
00:53:00.159 --> 00:53:03.760
of different places. When you when did you believe what

1065
00:53:03.920 --> 00:53:06.079
three weeks ago, four weeks ago went in Viddie was

1066
00:53:06.079 --> 00:53:08.840
in a one thirty five area. You think you're gonna

1067
00:53:08.840 --> 00:53:11.000
get a chance to buy it under one hundred? Yeah,

1068
00:53:11.000 --> 00:53:12.119
I mean that's.

1069
00:53:12.239 --> 00:53:14.039
That's so funny. Now people are scared to do it.

1070
00:53:14.199 --> 00:53:17.159
But yeah, probably we talk about that all the time.

1071
00:53:17.199 --> 00:53:20.559
It's just reverse thought. When the stock is on sale,

1072
00:53:20.599 --> 00:53:24.039
nobody wants it because it's gonna go to zero. But

1073
00:53:24.079 --> 00:53:25.599
when the stock is at all the time highs for

1074
00:53:25.639 --> 00:53:27.280
four weeks in a row, everybody wants to buy it

1075
00:53:27.320 --> 00:53:30.119
because it's never gonna stop going up. It's backwards thinking.

1076
00:53:30.440 --> 00:53:33.039
I mean, like we're talking about Boeing. It was at

1077
00:53:33.079 --> 00:53:35.519
what ninety two dollars a share at one point, m

1078
00:53:35.880 --> 00:53:37.920
god allay, and that was during the COVID and during

1079
00:53:37.960 --> 00:53:40.039
their crashes and all that stuff. They just kept having

1080
00:53:40.079 --> 00:53:43.119
bad news after bad news, and then all of a sudden,

1081
00:53:43.119 --> 00:53:44.320
in a year and a half is at two thirty.

1082
00:53:44.360 --> 00:53:46.199
Again, I think the great case of that one is

1083
00:53:46.320 --> 00:53:47.880
Meta back in the day when they dropped to what

1084
00:53:47.960 --> 00:53:49.480
eighty seven dollars a share or something.

1085
00:53:49.639 --> 00:53:52.880
Yeah, because nobody believes in what Zuckerberg was throwing ten

1086
00:53:52.920 --> 00:53:56.360
billion dollars a year into the metaverse, right, people thought,

1087
00:53:56.480 --> 00:53:59.880
investors thought that he was crazy, he's lost his way.

1088
00:54:00.159 --> 00:54:02.519
He shouldn't be the CEO anymore. They need to oust

1089
00:54:02.559 --> 00:54:04.280
him because he hasn't know what he's doing.

1090
00:54:04.360 --> 00:54:06.559
And now people are starting to think, are these companies

1091
00:54:06.599 --> 00:54:08.800
spending too much in artificial intelligence now?

1092
00:54:09.360 --> 00:54:09.559
Right?

1093
00:54:09.880 --> 00:54:10.480
Yeaheah.

1094
00:54:10.519 --> 00:54:12.920
And they're gonna say that because there isn't a lot

1095
00:54:12.960 --> 00:54:16.039
of revenue getting generated from these type of companies. But

1096
00:54:16.159 --> 00:54:18.320
that's the same build out that you have to have

1097
00:54:18.679 --> 00:54:20.360
that we saw on the Internet. And I do think

1098
00:54:20.400 --> 00:54:23.800
there is gonna be some type of maybe potential AI

1099
00:54:23.840 --> 00:54:26.280
crust that the same way you have the dotcom crash.

1100
00:54:26.480 --> 00:54:29.159
It's it's not from my opinion, what I'm reading seeing

1101
00:54:29.199 --> 00:54:30.920
twenty eight twenty nine is probably where you start to

1102
00:54:30.920 --> 00:54:34.440
see some profitability, like true game changing profitability from the

1103
00:54:34.440 --> 00:54:38.400
as Yeah, I don't think it's as close as some

1104
00:54:38.480 --> 00:54:40.159
of these investors are pricing in.

1105
00:54:40.639 --> 00:54:42.800
No, and there's there's marvelous things going on in Ai.

1106
00:54:42.960 --> 00:54:46.519
Let's talk a little bit about rare earth minerals only

1107
00:54:46.559 --> 00:54:48.519
because they're spending the news a lot China.

1108
00:54:48.840 --> 00:54:49.840
That's a good thing to talk about.

1109
00:54:49.960 --> 00:54:53.039
Yeah, China, and that's their eight hundred pound club, you know, Yeah,

1110
00:54:53.440 --> 00:54:56.719
they've got. Yeah. Rare earth minerals are simply a set

1111
00:54:56.760 --> 00:55:04.840
of seventeen nearly in distinct inguigable, lustrous silver, silvery white,

1112
00:55:04.920 --> 00:55:08.079
hard to say, soft heavy metals. They are actually not

1113
00:55:08.159 --> 00:55:11.199
that rare time, They're actually not that rare. They call

1114
00:55:11.280 --> 00:55:13.599
them rare earth minerals, but they're not the rare. However,

1115
00:55:13.599 --> 00:55:19.000
they are crucial for modern technology smartphones, turbines, electric vehicles,

1116
00:55:19.079 --> 00:55:24.400
medical equipment. Over the last twenty years China and I said,

1117
00:55:24.400 --> 00:55:26.920
they're not rare, but they might be hard to get

1118
00:55:26.960 --> 00:55:29.599
because over the last twenty years, China has been scarfing

1119
00:55:29.679 --> 00:55:32.840
up these mines all over the world, these rare earth

1120
00:55:32.920 --> 00:55:36.760
mineral mines. So China controls eighty five to ninety percent

1121
00:55:36.880 --> 00:55:38.840
of the rare earth minerals, which.

1122
00:55:38.639 --> 00:55:39.199
You do need.

1123
00:55:39.840 --> 00:55:42.639
They may be plentiful, but they're all owned by China,

1124
00:55:43.199 --> 00:55:45.320
and you have to go through China to get them.

1125
00:55:45.320 --> 00:55:50.599
That's why they're using them as a club to give

1126
00:55:50.599 --> 00:55:53.480
what they want, you know, as a counter to Trump.

1127
00:55:53.719 --> 00:55:57.519
But rare earth manuals seventeen different minerals, pretty similar minerals,

1128
00:55:57.920 --> 00:56:00.840
all used in technology, not that rare, but hard to

1129
00:56:00.880 --> 00:56:04.320
get because they're controlled by one country, South America, and

1130
00:56:04.480 --> 00:56:09.039
you've seen them South America, South Africa, West Africa. Wherever

1131
00:56:09.119 --> 00:56:14.559
there's deposits a large deposits of rare earth minerals. China

1132
00:56:14.599 --> 00:56:16.840
has been buying them up and they've been for the

1133
00:56:16.920 --> 00:56:19.800
last twenty years. They've seen this, they've seen this thing coming.

1134
00:56:19.800 --> 00:56:22.599
And we all know they play a longer game than

1135
00:56:22.639 --> 00:56:24.400
we do. We're quarter to quarter.

1136
00:56:24.440 --> 00:56:26.000
They're also allowed to play a longer game.

1137
00:56:26.079 --> 00:56:26.400
They are.

1138
00:56:26.920 --> 00:56:29.440
They don't they don't have the pressure from their populace

1139
00:56:30.119 --> 00:56:34.360
to show results like like our certain leaders do. But

1140
00:56:34.400 --> 00:56:37.480
if you if you're if they start talking about rare

1141
00:56:37.480 --> 00:56:39.960
earth minerals, keep in mind they're not rare, but they

1142
00:56:39.960 --> 00:56:40.960
are hard to get.

1143
00:56:41.840 --> 00:56:45.239
Yeah, I mean, there's just like you said, there's rare earths,

1144
00:56:45.239 --> 00:56:48.679
there's chips, both sides. People got things. At the end

1145
00:56:48.719 --> 00:56:51.039
of the day, we have the most powerful thing, and

1146
00:56:51.159 --> 00:56:53.239
I think it's two most powerful things, the world reserve

1147
00:56:53.280 --> 00:56:55.920
currency and the strongest military in the world, which backs

1148
00:56:55.960 --> 00:56:57.159
up the world reserve currency.

1149
00:56:57.360 --> 00:57:01.000
We are we are China's biggest customer by far, by

1150
00:57:01.079 --> 00:57:05.440
far by multiples. Okay, So if you wanted to have

1151
00:57:05.519 --> 00:57:08.480
your business do really poorly what you want to do

1152
00:57:08.559 --> 00:57:10.039
with anger your best customer.

1153
00:57:10.159 --> 00:57:14.599
Have you heard of MP Materials? We MP Materials. This

1154
00:57:14.719 --> 00:57:16.480
was brought up to me by a client's son and

1155
00:57:16.480 --> 00:57:18.760
we did a financial plan with him, and he works

1156
00:57:19.360 --> 00:57:22.920
for MP Materials. They'd have a rare earth mineral sites

1157
00:57:23.280 --> 00:57:25.719
in California, they have one in Texas. And I was

1158
00:57:25.719 --> 00:57:28.639
reading something about rare earth minerals this week and it

1159
00:57:28.679 --> 00:57:32.880
was about the terriffs and this company, MP Materials seized

1160
00:57:33.159 --> 00:57:37.280
rare rare earth materials concentrate to China due to the

1161
00:57:37.280 --> 00:57:39.800
one hundred and twenty five percent tariff imposed by China.

1162
00:57:39.840 --> 00:57:43.719
This you know, last week stock rallied about twelve percent.

1163
00:57:43.760 --> 00:57:46.000
Stocks up about sixty percent year to date, It's trading

1164
00:57:46.000 --> 00:57:48.239
in the twenties. It's been interesting. It's coming up on

1165
00:57:48.280 --> 00:57:49.840
its two hundred DA and I've kind of been keeping

1166
00:57:49.840 --> 00:57:50.960
an eye on it for that reason.

1167
00:57:51.559 --> 00:57:53.840
Good good business to be in one that was kind

1168
00:57:53.840 --> 00:57:57.039
of a sleepy business. We've all heard the term rare

1169
00:57:57.079 --> 00:58:01.039
earth minerals, but it's never been used over held over

1170
00:58:01.079 --> 00:58:03.000
our heads, you know, a threat.

1171
00:58:03.079 --> 00:58:04.760
Yeah, something else you look at, like you said. With

1172
00:58:04.800 --> 00:58:07.039
the equal weight to SMP being up forty basis points

1173
00:58:07.039 --> 00:58:10.480
this week, the broad market not we We've seen other stocks.

1174
00:58:10.599 --> 00:58:15.079
We talked about Boeing, Raytheon and Lockheed definitely been doing well.

1175
00:58:15.239 --> 00:58:18.599
I mean, it's the potential that you have this golden Dome,

1176
00:58:18.679 --> 00:58:21.119
which yes it's not the Iron Dome which Evan Israel.

1177
00:58:21.119 --> 00:58:22.960
The idea that you're going to have missile systems around

1178
00:58:23.199 --> 00:58:27.519
the United States protecting the coastlines and the borderlines and

1179
00:58:27.559 --> 00:58:28.079
things like that.

1180
00:58:28.159 --> 00:58:30.039
Do you know the difference between the Golden dome and

1181
00:58:30.159 --> 00:58:31.079
iron though.

1182
00:58:31.400 --> 00:58:33.639
Yeah, one is made by Trump. That's probably what they

1183
00:58:33.679 --> 00:58:34.639
called golden.

1184
00:58:36.760 --> 00:58:37.400
Golden head.

1185
00:58:39.119 --> 00:58:42.639
But you ask there's a question, Yeah, you.

1186
00:58:42.599 --> 00:58:44.840
Don't know, asked a question, we don't know.

1187
00:58:44.960 --> 00:58:46.320
Thank you, Dave, Thank you, Dave.

1188
00:58:46.440 --> 00:58:50.280
Right Google, right, Google to ask a question you don't

1189
00:58:50.280 --> 00:58:50.840
know the answer.

1190
00:58:50.840 --> 00:58:52.880
That's for housekeeping next week, Yeah.

1191
00:58:53.000 --> 00:58:55.079
Look it up. In the break. Speaking of Google, they

1192
00:58:55.119 --> 00:58:58.599
lost another anti trust law talking about monopolization. That's two

1193
00:58:58.639 --> 00:59:02.840
within twelve months. Stock dropped over about two percent on Thursday.

1194
00:59:03.000 --> 00:59:05.760
They're down about eleven percent for the year. They're just

1195
00:59:05.800 --> 00:59:09.159
getting hit left and right about all these monopolizations of them,

1196
00:59:09.199 --> 00:59:11.920
and this latest one was acquiring and maintaining monopoly power

1197
00:59:11.960 --> 00:59:15.599
over the open web display of publisher ad ads.

1198
00:59:15.760 --> 00:59:16.639
It's all about ads.

1199
00:59:17.239 --> 00:59:18.880
I know that's a really bad thing, but I do

1200
00:59:18.920 --> 00:59:21.599
feel like when the anti trust companies say like, yeah,

1201
00:59:21.760 --> 00:59:24.119
you're a monopoly, Like, isn't that you just like saying like,

1202
00:59:24.199 --> 00:59:25.480
you're a great business man, You've.

1203
00:59:25.360 --> 00:59:26.000
Done it too well.

1204
00:59:26.679 --> 00:59:28.320
Yeah, pretty much in a sense, they try and breakup

1205
00:59:28.360 --> 00:59:30.800
the monopoly because they're like, Okay, you got too good,

1206
00:59:31.320 --> 00:59:33.920
you're too big. You need to Yeah, you need to

1207
00:59:33.960 --> 00:59:35.360
take it down a notch in a sense, is what

1208
00:59:35.400 --> 00:59:37.880
they're saying. I mean, did an Apple get into that

1209
00:59:37.920 --> 00:59:40.280
whole thing saying they got a whole monopoly? Absolutely, but

1210
00:59:40.280 --> 00:59:42.320
it's the Apple ecosystem. It's like, Okay, you can go

1211
00:59:42.360 --> 00:59:43.360
to a different phone and use it.

1212
00:59:43.440 --> 00:59:45.719
I think it's an interesting debate though, because when you

1213
00:59:45.880 --> 00:59:48.480
put an anti trust that is not free market right,

1214
00:59:48.559 --> 00:59:51.719
that is, you are now stepping in as a regulator.

1215
00:59:51.840 --> 00:59:55.679
That is not capitalism. It's an interesting if you have

1216
00:59:55.760 --> 00:59:58.159
pure capitalism. We all say we love capitalism, right, but

1217
00:59:58.239 --> 01:00:01.360
pure capitalism is in a system like you would have slaves,

1218
01:00:01.440 --> 01:00:04.280
you would have things that aren't things that we think

1219
01:00:04.320 --> 01:00:07.639
are good, because it's whatever the market will deem, whatever

1220
01:00:07.639 --> 01:00:11.599
the market will bear. Are any of us true capitalists?

1221
01:00:11.639 --> 01:00:13.719
Or do you think you need some level of regulation

1222
01:00:14.199 --> 01:00:15.320
at a at a base level.

1223
01:00:15.400 --> 01:00:18.800
Yeah, we're a true capitalist. Amazon would own everything, Yeah,

1224
01:00:18.840 --> 01:00:19.480
pretty much.

1225
01:00:20.880 --> 01:00:22.519
Googling now that you can do the bundle thing on

1226
01:00:22.519 --> 01:00:23.039
the streaming.

1227
01:00:23.119 --> 01:00:23.320
Yeah.

1228
01:00:24.360 --> 01:00:27.360
Remember the last week's show, we were saying, isn't it

1229
01:00:27.480 --> 01:00:29.920
kind of weird that with all of the threats that

1230
01:00:30.159 --> 01:00:34.599
you're getting from China that Apple had a pretty good week,

1231
01:00:35.320 --> 01:00:38.679
and maybe is there a possibility that Trump's going to

1232
01:00:38.800 --> 01:00:42.239
carve out a niche for them? And there out the

1233
01:00:42.679 --> 01:00:45.800
very next day on Saturday, here he comes with his

1234
01:00:46.480 --> 01:00:52.119
carving out a niche for the cell phones and the computers.

1235
01:00:51.880 --> 01:00:55.639
It gave Apple a little boost on Monday, but it

1236
01:00:55.679 --> 01:01:01.000
was quickly eaten away. I don't know. Best Buy had

1237
01:01:01.000 --> 01:01:04.280
a real nice pop because you know, electronics are going

1238
01:01:04.360 --> 01:01:07.480
to be not going to be charged to tariff, and

1239
01:01:07.559 --> 01:01:10.760
so best Buy was really struggling. But now they all

1240
01:01:10.800 --> 01:01:12.559
of a sudden on Monday, were thinking, you know, it's

1241
01:01:12.599 --> 01:01:15.599
been very interesting. I saw this week this year away

1242
01:01:15.639 --> 01:01:19.280
to Place the Hide, Verizon, Team Mobile, I mean, some

1243
01:01:19.320 --> 01:01:20.840
of these cell phone stocks.

1244
01:01:20.840 --> 01:01:24.039
Then I heard one point that kind of made sense

1245
01:01:24.079 --> 01:01:26.400
to me. It's like, how much your terish really impact

1246
01:01:26.400 --> 01:01:28.239
phones because most of these aren't payment plan. So if

1247
01:01:28.280 --> 01:01:31.320
you're paying one hundred and seventeen bucks a month and

1248
01:01:31.360 --> 01:01:33.239
it goes to one hundred and twenty six bucks a month,

1249
01:01:34.000 --> 01:01:36.039
do you really care that much? Right, it doesn't really

1250
01:01:36.079 --> 01:01:37.840
make you the difference of you getting the phone or not.

1251
01:01:38.320 --> 01:01:40.920
So that I get I guess I could understand. But

1252
01:01:41.599 --> 01:01:44.079
T Mobile, for example, I love the idea of partnering

1253
01:01:44.079 --> 01:01:46.360
with Starlink. You have Internet wherever you are in the

1254
01:01:46.360 --> 01:01:49.559
world with your phone. They're up twenty percent. Verizon I

1255
01:01:49.559 --> 01:01:52.239
think is of like sixteen percent a dividend stock, and

1256
01:01:52.280 --> 01:01:53.719
these phone companies are doing a big.

1257
01:01:55.400 --> 01:01:55.679
Yeah.

1258
01:01:55.800 --> 01:01:57.840
These these companies are really grown.

1259
01:01:57.320 --> 01:02:01.400
And the whole argument behind the stocks lane dead for

1260
01:02:01.440 --> 01:02:04.760
the last few years is there's no growth, which you

1261
01:02:05.000 --> 01:02:07.079
can make an argument. I mean, everybody pretty much has

1262
01:02:07.079 --> 01:02:09.519
a cell phone. It's not a big growth business. But

1263
01:02:09.599 --> 01:02:11.480
what they've done is they have figured out how to

1264
01:02:11.480 --> 01:02:12.599
trick us out of money?

1265
01:02:13.599 --> 01:02:15.440
Well, I raised the question, you mean, I raised the

1266
01:02:15.480 --> 01:02:16.400
question earlier this week.

1267
01:02:16.440 --> 01:02:18.440
So both of you guys, how often.

1268
01:02:18.239 --> 01:02:20.639
Are people actually changing their phone plans? Am I trying

1269
01:02:20.679 --> 01:02:24.519
to shop between providers to save twenty thirty dollars a month?

1270
01:02:24.679 --> 01:02:26.840
Maybe if I'm looking for a new phone, sure, But

1271
01:02:27.000 --> 01:02:29.039
how often am I actually looking for that new phone?

1272
01:02:29.199 --> 01:02:30.880
I think a better question is what you were saying?

1273
01:02:30.920 --> 01:02:32.239
What was your.

1274
01:02:32.559 --> 01:02:35.639
The things you've seen the ads on TV about and

1275
01:02:35.679 --> 01:02:37.360
I've talked about this on the radio. Have to tell you,

1276
01:02:37.400 --> 01:02:40.480
y'all are paly sick of hearing about it. But we'll

1277
01:02:40.559 --> 01:02:44.719
come in. We'll get a new iPhone sixteen on us. Yeah,

1278
01:02:44.800 --> 01:02:47.239
and well, they're gonna give me an iPhone sixteen, a

1279
01:02:47.320 --> 01:02:48.599
laptop and some other thing.

1280
01:02:48.719 --> 01:02:49.679
There's no free lunch day.

1281
01:02:49.800 --> 01:02:51.639
There is no free lunch. So here's the problem. You

1282
01:02:52.079 --> 01:02:54.760
have to upgrade your plan, you know. So, yeah, here's

1283
01:02:54.760 --> 01:02:57.559
your free phone. That'll be an extra fifty dollars a month. Wait,

1284
01:02:57.599 --> 01:02:59.039
I thought it was free. Oh no, you have to

1285
01:02:59.079 --> 01:03:02.840
go to the other plan to get that, you know. Duh.

1286
01:03:02.920 --> 01:03:06.280
Well, and that seems how seabasts they get the other customers.

1287
01:03:06.280 --> 01:03:07.920
They say Hey, bring in your own fold for your

1288
01:03:07.920 --> 01:03:09.159
old plan, We'll give you a free phone.

1289
01:03:09.159 --> 01:03:11.559
Well, I was just thinking because we did switch plans

1290
01:03:11.559 --> 01:03:13.719
not too long ago, and that's how they got It's

1291
01:03:13.719 --> 01:03:15.519
funny enough, and yeah, that's exactly how.

1292
01:03:15.440 --> 01:03:15.920
They got us.

1293
01:03:16.000 --> 01:03:19.119
I mean, it's good advertising, right, And maybe you didn't

1294
01:03:19.119 --> 01:03:20.960
see the growth in the past years just because you

1295
01:03:21.039 --> 01:03:23.760
had all these people still locked into their you know,

1296
01:03:24.320 --> 01:03:27.559
plans before that were actually better plans. But somehow they.

1297
01:03:27.440 --> 01:03:30.719
Found a way to got a supercycle, right they negotiating

1298
01:03:31.440 --> 01:03:32.360
there was a supercycle.

1299
01:03:32.639 --> 01:03:34.559
Yeah. And the other thing is we've we've been talking

1300
01:03:34.639 --> 01:03:37.639
for a year and a half about the value cycle

1301
01:03:37.679 --> 01:03:40.239
that we see coming. It never came last year. We

1302
01:03:40.239 --> 01:03:42.960
thought it would. It certainly has come this year. It's

1303
01:03:43.000 --> 01:03:45.599
coming when things get a little crazy, dividends start to

1304
01:03:45.599 --> 01:03:48.559
make a difference. When things get a little crazy, valuations

1305
01:03:48.639 --> 01:03:53.719
actually start to matter. I've often said that valuations don't

1306
01:03:53.719 --> 01:03:54.559
matter until they do.

1307
01:03:54.920 --> 01:03:58.440
These valuations in some companies just make you really ridiculous attractive.

1308
01:03:58.480 --> 01:04:01.239
I mean, fsl R, that's one on a trailing basis,

1309
01:04:01.280 --> 01:04:04.199
they're like thirteen twelve American made Solar coming. I know,

1310
01:04:04.239 --> 01:04:06.840
we don't love solar with this administration, but it's American Maid.

1311
01:04:06.880 --> 01:04:09.000
I mean, how much better can you get right now

1312
01:04:09.599 --> 01:04:12.760
with products? And then another one is Novo. I mean,

1313
01:04:12.800 --> 01:04:16.880
this thing has just been getting killed. Novo Nordis they

1314
01:04:16.960 --> 01:04:19.960
make you know, the semi glue tides. But I think

1315
01:04:20.079 --> 01:04:21.679
you know the Dylan is talking about too with like

1316
01:04:21.719 --> 01:04:24.039
Boeing trading down Solo and it's like it's never gonna

1317
01:04:24.480 --> 01:04:26.199
it's never going to perform again, it's never going to

1318
01:04:26.280 --> 01:04:29.480
come back. And I think these are huge opportunities you

1319
01:04:29.480 --> 01:04:30.880
can look in these companies.

1320
01:04:30.519 --> 01:04:32.400
And three a m Was at the bottom of the

1321
01:04:32.440 --> 01:04:35.000
thirty doustocks for a couple of years, not at the top.

1322
01:04:35.119 --> 01:04:35.280
Right.

1323
01:04:35.320 --> 01:04:37.960
Novo was down eight percent on Friday because another company

1324
01:04:38.000 --> 01:04:41.679
came out with an oral drug that let you talk

1325
01:04:41.719 --> 01:04:43.719
about that Lily, Yeah, Soli Lily.

1326
01:04:43.800 --> 01:04:45.599
They rallied fifteen percent off of those news.

1327
01:04:45.639 --> 01:04:47.760
Because the idea is that the oral drug. Everyone wants

1328
01:04:47.760 --> 01:04:49.840
the oral take a pill rather than have to poke

1329
01:04:49.920 --> 01:04:52.559
myself with a needle. No one likes needles. The problem

1330
01:04:52.599 --> 01:04:54.119
with that is we all know that this is only

1331
01:04:54.159 --> 01:04:55.719
going to go to the rich people first. That's how

1332
01:04:55.760 --> 01:04:58.079
it always works. It's not going to be a cheap

1333
01:04:58.239 --> 01:04:59.400
oral medicine.

1334
01:04:59.519 --> 01:05:02.039
It will be interesting to see how expensive it is.

1335
01:05:02.079 --> 01:05:05.119
I mean, how do you uh, you don't don't generally

1336
01:05:05.159 --> 01:05:07.880
go in and get one pill, right right, You're generally

1337
01:05:07.920 --> 01:05:09.760
going to get like a little wile of pills. You're

1338
01:05:09.760 --> 01:05:12.159
gonna get ten of them and without one thousand bucks?

1339
01:05:12.199 --> 01:05:15.079
And what's it? What's it gonna be? Because that will

1340
01:05:15.079 --> 01:05:17.519
be interesting because the shots are pretty darn.

1341
01:05:17.480 --> 01:05:20.239
Can you do buy now, pay later on your semi glutes.

1342
01:05:20.480 --> 01:05:24.119
You may have to write, but the rack up later.

1343
01:05:24.480 --> 01:05:27.519
You got Klara on your on your semi gluten sides,

1344
01:05:28.960 --> 01:05:34.840
order in door dash you Lily.

1345
01:05:34.920 --> 01:05:38.559
Phase three trial of this of this oral weight loss drug,

1346
01:05:39.519 --> 01:05:44.920
the Mojarro, the oral version of Manjaro did show excellent results.

1347
01:05:44.960 --> 01:05:48.000
And of course, now then what people go to it's

1348
01:05:48.039 --> 01:05:50.920
a reach. Of course they look at number notice and go, well,

1349
01:05:50.920 --> 01:05:54.480
wait a second, Lily's going to have the pill. Everybody's

1350
01:05:54.480 --> 01:05:58.679
gonna want the pill. People taking ozempic and mogovi they'll stop.

1351
01:05:59.039 --> 01:06:03.679
So noble Nordics, you your two biggest products are now

1352
01:06:03.719 --> 01:06:07.360
going to be zero. Well, it's not realistic, like tod

1353
01:06:07.719 --> 01:06:08.480
it's not realistic.

1354
01:06:08.519 --> 01:06:10.519
Yeah, you want to look at a mountain, pull that chart, up,

1355
01:06:10.559 --> 01:06:12.840
because that is one heck of a right up and

1356
01:06:12.880 --> 01:06:15.119
down of the NOVO. But the thing I love about

1357
01:06:15.159 --> 01:06:19.920
NOVO is they have a quantum research that they're that

1358
01:06:19.920 --> 01:06:22.000
they're trying to actually like figure out how we're going

1359
01:06:22.079 --> 01:06:24.519
to use quantum of quantum computing to figure out these

1360
01:06:24.559 --> 01:06:27.079
new drugs in the future. And that's you know, if

1361
01:06:27.079 --> 01:06:28.719
you're not looking at just the next two years and

1362
01:06:28.760 --> 01:06:31.239
you're looking the next ten years, that's the next step.

1363
01:06:31.280 --> 01:06:33.280
We kind of AI and Quantum.

1364
01:06:33.000 --> 01:06:34.400
Kind of hope that they're not the first ones to

1365
01:06:34.400 --> 01:06:36.320
get it since they're not American based, right.

1366
01:06:36.880 --> 01:06:40.599
You know, I think what they're they're Danish, Yeah, Mark.

1367
01:06:41.119 --> 01:06:43.800
Yeah, But in a sense, that'll just help healthcare everywhere. Yeah,

1368
01:06:43.880 --> 01:06:46.719
kind of like when the guy made the seat's so yeah,

1369
01:06:46.719 --> 01:06:48.559
he made it better and just didn't patent it because

1370
01:06:48.599 --> 01:06:51.519
he wanted everybody to have it. You get quantum computing

1371
01:06:51.599 --> 01:06:54.880
with healthcare, it is going to just expedite everything.

1372
01:06:54.960 --> 01:06:57.119
Yeah. I think that's the one thing where like the

1373
01:06:57.119 --> 01:07:00.199
financial plans we do that could throw a wrenchary thing

1374
01:07:00.280 --> 01:07:02.159
if people start living a one to twenty or something,

1375
01:07:02.239 --> 01:07:05.119
it's like, what the heck, Well, I know we're.

1376
01:07:04.960 --> 01:07:06.800
Telling that when we do the financial plan. We're like,

1377
01:07:06.800 --> 01:07:09.639
all right, so for the plan, has it go men

1378
01:07:09.719 --> 01:07:12.280
live till ninety two, women live till ninety four is

1379
01:07:12.320 --> 01:07:14.000
the base, Like, we're not going to go under that,

1380
01:07:14.039 --> 01:07:17.719
regardless of what you say, because with modern medicine coming

1381
01:07:17.800 --> 01:07:20.480
up in everything, likelihood of you living longer is pretty

1382
01:07:20.559 --> 01:07:23.519
high compared to what was in the past. Like some people,

1383
01:07:23.559 --> 01:07:24.840
we have some clients they say, I don't want to

1384
01:07:24.840 --> 01:07:26.760
live past eighty five. It's like, okay, well we're gonna

1385
01:07:26.760 --> 01:07:29.199
make it ninety four then or ninety two. But the

1386
01:07:29.280 --> 01:07:31.760
idea is we can make it go to about one

1387
01:07:31.840 --> 01:07:34.400
hundred and five right now, I think even farthest we

1388
01:07:34.440 --> 01:07:36.119
can go out. I think maybe even further. Yeah, I

1389
01:07:36.159 --> 01:07:38.599
think it's the idea of like, but with the plan,

1390
01:07:38.679 --> 01:07:40.960
we can look at that scenario of what if I

1391
01:07:41.000 --> 01:07:43.960
live longer. You put everything in ninety four, but then

1392
01:07:44.079 --> 01:07:46.360
like what happens if I live to one hundred and ten,

1393
01:07:46.400 --> 01:07:48.440
one hundred and twenty. You can look at that real

1394
01:07:48.480 --> 01:07:49.719
time and see how it affects your plan.

1395
01:07:49.719 --> 01:07:50.760
Will it last?

1396
01:07:50.880 --> 01:07:52.719
It's definitely something that could throw a wrench in the

1397
01:07:52.760 --> 01:07:54.639
plan the health care costs. But in theory, if that

1398
01:07:54.679 --> 01:07:56.840
they do come out with the quantum computing with you

1399
01:07:56.840 --> 01:08:00.320
know in healthcare, it should make all these medical costs cheaper.

1400
01:08:00.519 --> 01:08:03.360
Right, Well, it's not cost, it's are living longer?

1401
01:08:03.519 --> 01:08:05.719
Well, no, that's what I mean. But how are we

1402
01:08:05.719 --> 01:08:07.480
going to live longer because of these drugs?

1403
01:08:07.719 --> 01:08:08.480
Right?

1404
01:08:08.559 --> 01:08:10.239
But it's not necessarily like the drugs are going to

1405
01:08:10.280 --> 01:08:12.679
be expensive. It's saying they're going to help you live longer.

1406
01:08:12.679 --> 01:08:15.880
I think that they're going to be less expensive because well, you've.

1407
01:08:15.719 --> 01:08:17.920
Been planning on someone dying at one hundred and then

1408
01:08:17.920 --> 01:08:20.119
they lived the one twenty and the money you.

1409
01:08:20.079 --> 01:08:23.000
Don't have if you're taking seven percent out of your

1410
01:08:23.039 --> 01:08:24.880
account and you're thinking, Okay, I'm only going to live

1411
01:08:24.920 --> 01:08:27.520
ten years whatever, I'm gonna have money account. Next thing,

1412
01:08:27.560 --> 01:08:30.039
you know, you're living forty years. A seven percent draw

1413
01:08:30.079 --> 01:08:32.079
that you've been living on is going to drain your accounts.

1414
01:08:32.279 --> 01:08:34.359
That's what we're talking about. You can make you live long,

1415
01:08:34.479 --> 01:08:37.600
not the cost of healthcare. The idea that you live longer,

1416
01:08:37.640 --> 01:08:39.279
you need to maybe plan for that.

1417
01:08:39.319 --> 01:08:41.000
And people's idea that they're not going to live long

1418
01:08:41.039 --> 01:08:45.159
with life expectancy is just not understanding how exponential growth happens.

1419
01:08:45.279 --> 01:08:48.439
I mean, we are on an exponential curve in improving medicine.

1420
01:08:48.960 --> 01:08:50.560
And that's the same thing when.

1421
01:08:50.479 --> 01:08:53.279
Social Security started, I think, Wait, they were planning on

1422
01:08:53.279 --> 01:08:56.159
people only living four or five years after like sixty

1423
01:08:56.399 --> 01:08:57.239
sixty five was.

1424
01:08:57.359 --> 01:08:58.239
A long life.

1425
01:08:58.520 --> 01:09:01.800
Yeah, everyr life you're paying was very short after that. Yeah.

1426
01:09:01.840 --> 01:09:03.680
So you know the old question is who wants to

1427
01:09:03.760 --> 01:09:04.520
live to be one hundred?

1428
01:09:04.600 --> 01:09:07.960
Right? It depends on what one hundred looks now, No,

1429
01:09:08.159 --> 01:09:08.640
no it.

1430
01:09:08.560 --> 01:09:14.880
Doesn't because the answer is someone ninety nine. Yeah. Pretty so, Hey,

1431
01:09:14.920 --> 01:09:19.560
Tucson arrived officially. Tucson officially arrived on the planet Earth.

1432
01:09:20.000 --> 01:09:23.039
Uh and the top tier of cities in this country.

1433
01:09:23.119 --> 01:09:26.119
Last week, did you see the shake Shack announced they're

1434
01:09:26.119 --> 01:09:27.119
going to open in Tucson.

1435
01:09:27.319 --> 01:09:28.840
Oh yeah, shake.

1436
01:09:28.640 --> 01:09:33.840
Shack, the Manhattan based gourmet hamburger place where uh Fort

1437
01:09:33.880 --> 01:09:40.000
Lowell and Campbell right down in the in the fabrics

1438
01:09:40.039 --> 01:09:43.439
and go h the old fabrics and ghost store. I

1439
01:09:43.439 --> 01:09:47.479
guess has been got up and went. Yes, they were

1440
01:09:47.520 --> 01:09:52.000
serious about it. Estaberg can going now they're gone not

1441
01:09:52.119 --> 01:09:53.920
till next year. I got open til next year, which

1442
01:09:53.920 --> 01:09:56.600
is a bummer. But yeah, shake Shack, that's a that's

1443
01:09:56.600 --> 01:10:00.199
a big deal. Uh. There, you don't see shakeshack too

1444
01:10:00.199 --> 01:10:03.680
many places, but I think they opened like six locations

1445
01:10:03.680 --> 01:10:05.439
and sadiques, and you are thinking, well, we're kind of

1446
01:10:05.479 --> 01:10:08.359
running out of places open here anyplace else around here?

1447
01:10:08.439 --> 01:10:09.039
So we've got people?

1448
01:10:09.560 --> 01:10:09.880
What other?

1449
01:10:10.079 --> 01:10:11.960
I know, you got some fun facts for Easter? What's

1450
01:10:11.960 --> 01:10:12.359
going on?

1451
01:10:12.399 --> 01:10:14.720
I don't have any fun factor. I honestly don't. Really, No,

1452
01:10:14.880 --> 01:10:16.920
I don't have anything. I was I used it up

1453
01:10:16.960 --> 01:10:19.199
last week? When about the most popular candy?

1454
01:10:20.079 --> 01:10:20.479
Or was it?

1455
01:10:20.479 --> 01:10:21.399
I wasn't here last week.

1456
01:10:21.439 --> 01:10:25.159
Oh, you were the most popular candy, not Easter candy.

1457
01:10:25.199 --> 01:10:28.159
The most popular candy in the United States? Period?

1458
01:10:28.199 --> 01:10:28.760
Oh? Period?

1459
01:10:28.920 --> 01:10:29.119
Yeah?

1460
01:10:29.359 --> 01:10:29.840
What do you know?

1461
01:10:30.239 --> 01:10:32.399
What did you think I would have lost this one?

1462
01:10:32.479 --> 01:10:33.119
I got it right?

1463
01:10:33.319 --> 01:10:33.640
You did?

1464
01:10:33.720 --> 01:10:34.159
Did you get it?

1465
01:10:34.239 --> 01:10:36.920
Rights?

1466
01:10:38.119 --> 01:10:38.520
Were they?

1467
01:10:38.600 --> 01:10:38.800
Yeah?

1468
01:10:38.840 --> 01:10:41.520
Honestly in their eastern favorite asked my daughter.

1469
01:10:41.600 --> 01:10:43.640
My daughter just turned forty and I asked her that,

1470
01:10:43.640 --> 01:10:47.640
and she's just favor for anybody under forty knows this well.

1471
01:10:47.640 --> 01:10:50.079
They're also I mean they got the rest Easter egg chop.

1472
01:10:51.720 --> 01:10:53.279
You gotta put the reeses in the fridge and then

1473
01:10:53.279 --> 01:10:53.720
you eat.

1474
01:10:53.600 --> 01:10:55.720
Them, get them hard. I think any candy is better

1475
01:10:55.760 --> 01:10:57.479
than the fridge, right, I think so?

1476
01:10:57.640 --> 01:10:58.000
Yeah?

1477
01:10:58.840 --> 01:11:00.560
Pretty much. I like to put this news bar in

1478
01:11:00.600 --> 01:11:03.560
the fridge. Really with the chocolate bar in the fridge.

1479
01:11:03.880 --> 01:11:06.039
The funny part dealing is that the Reci's peanut butter

1480
01:11:06.079 --> 01:11:10.079
cup our sells the Hershey chocolate bar two to one. Yeah,

1481
01:11:10.159 --> 01:11:14.960
two to one. That's amazing. Good, that's amazing. So that's,

1482
01:11:15.560 --> 01:11:17.439
you know, something to something to think about.

1483
01:11:17.560 --> 01:11:19.119
Way, we're coming up on the end of this break,

1484
01:11:19.159 --> 01:11:23.039
we are Boston Marathon. I'm doing it when on Monday,

1485
01:11:23.239 --> 01:11:27.039
the day after this records on Monday. Yes, this upcoming Monday, we.

1486
01:11:27.039 --> 01:11:27.399
Can watch it.

1487
01:11:27.479 --> 01:11:28.239
I'm not going to be here.

1488
01:11:28.319 --> 01:11:32.760
Dave realized you have it on a Monday, so people

1489
01:11:32.800 --> 01:11:33.319
work for a living.

1490
01:11:33.399 --> 01:11:36.560
It's the one hundredth and nineteenth of it, one hundred

1491
01:11:36.560 --> 01:11:37.840
and twenty ninth running.

1492
01:11:38.159 --> 01:11:39.760
Maybe one day you can make New York. That's a

1493
01:11:39.800 --> 01:11:40.840
harder one. I understand.

1494
01:11:41.279 --> 01:11:42.479
New York is the easier one.

1495
01:11:42.520 --> 01:11:43.800
No, New York's harder one to get into.

1496
01:11:44.000 --> 01:11:44.680
No, it's nuts.

1497
01:11:44.680 --> 01:11:46.279
Oh I was told that was much harder.

1498
01:11:46.000 --> 01:11:47.800
Than I could guy into New York this year.

1499
01:11:48.199 --> 01:11:50.319
Oh, we'll find out. Anyway, Good luck to watch for

1500
01:11:50.359 --> 01:11:53.520
Todd on Monday and I'm running the Boston Marathon, and

1501
01:11:53.800 --> 01:11:56.279
hopefully you're still on his feet. We'll be right back.

1502
01:11:57.359 --> 01:11:59.000
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is

1503
01:11:59.039 --> 01:12:01.920
Sebastian Borsini here with Todd Glick Junior, David Sherwood, and

1504
01:12:02.000 --> 01:12:04.680
Dylan Greenberg. I do have a fun fact, easter fun.

1505
01:12:04.520 --> 01:12:05.039
Factor for you.

1506
01:12:05.319 --> 01:12:07.159
Yeah, I thick grip down.

1507
01:12:07.880 --> 01:12:10.920
Over the past twenty years, US consumers have spent how

1508
01:12:11.000 --> 01:12:15.560
much on average on Eastern candy that year?

1509
01:12:15.680 --> 01:12:15.760
Ye?

1510
01:12:16.439 --> 01:12:17.119
Six billion?

1511
01:12:17.880 --> 01:12:20.560
Okay, Doud, Oh.

1512
01:12:20.600 --> 01:12:22.560
Gosh, I don't know how you had a number that quick.

1513
01:12:22.560 --> 01:12:23.600
I was a thirteen.

1514
01:12:23.279 --> 01:12:25.840
Billion, three point one billion, Dave.

1515
01:12:26.279 --> 01:12:29.479
Not impressive. Okay, it wasn't that fun, My guys, pick

1516
01:12:29.520 --> 01:12:29.800
it up.

1517
01:12:29.920 --> 01:12:31.640
It seems it wasn't that. It was not a fun

1518
01:12:31.840 --> 01:12:35.199
It wasn't that fun. Was a fact I was trying

1519
01:12:35.199 --> 01:12:37.239
to get. I was trying to throw a statistic behind.

1520
01:12:37.119 --> 01:12:39.199
That fun fact that this is money matters.

1521
01:12:39.199 --> 01:12:41.079
How about you asked Chad GBT for a fun fact.

1522
01:12:41.159 --> 01:12:42.439
I did, This is money matters.

1523
01:12:43.159 --> 01:12:44.720
That's like, what's the square rid of one hundred and

1524
01:12:44.720 --> 01:12:45.079
forty four?

1525
01:12:45.359 --> 01:12:45.560
Yeah?

1526
01:12:45.640 --> 01:12:47.039
Fact. Now, it's not a fun fact.

1527
01:12:47.039 --> 01:12:48.840
It's like a compounding all right or whatever? You know.

1528
01:12:48.920 --> 01:12:50.680
Okay, so you know what has been.

1529
01:12:50.560 --> 01:12:52.199
Happening this week? We got a couple of calls, just

1530
01:12:52.199 --> 01:12:55.359
people who are saying, hey, I just want to know,

1531
01:12:55.760 --> 01:12:58.119
am I okay? If I wanted to retire right now?

1532
01:12:58.239 --> 01:13:01.720
Things haven't been going to work with the tariff things,

1533
01:13:01.720 --> 01:13:04.640
some administrations at workers saying, you know, we might not

1534
01:13:04.760 --> 01:13:06.600
have to we might have to lay you off, or

1535
01:13:06.800 --> 01:13:08.960
we're not quite sure where the future of the business

1536
01:13:08.960 --> 01:13:11.000
is going. We've heard that from quite a lot of people, right,

1537
01:13:11.079 --> 01:13:14.439
And so there's a just uncertainty of if I was fired,

1538
01:13:14.479 --> 01:13:17.159
what does my plan look like? If I'm not working

1539
01:13:17.199 --> 01:13:18.960
in a year or in three months from now, what

1540
01:13:19.199 --> 01:13:21.880
does my plan do? I was planning to retire in

1541
01:13:21.920 --> 01:13:24.439
two years, three years, four years, but now I might

1542
01:13:24.479 --> 01:13:27.920
retire next month, right? How bad is it if that happens.

1543
01:13:28.239 --> 01:13:30.039
We can run those scenarios for you. We can run

1544
01:13:30.039 --> 01:13:32.520
what if scenarios if you're a current client, past client,

1545
01:13:32.560 --> 01:13:34.359
if you aren't a client yet, we can do it

1546
01:13:34.399 --> 01:13:36.800
for you. We just have to have an understanding of

1547
01:13:36.800 --> 01:13:39.119
what you currently got going on. We'll build out that

1548
01:13:39.239 --> 01:13:42.359
initial financial plan, play with all the variables. See what

1549
01:13:42.399 --> 01:13:44.880
you're spending, see what's coming in the door. We'll play

1550
01:13:44.880 --> 01:13:47.359
with the inflation rates, We'll play with bad investment returns,

1551
01:13:47.359 --> 01:13:49.760
but we'll see what the true risks are for your

1552
01:13:49.800 --> 01:13:51.680
plan and build out a scenario for you. But on

1553
01:13:51.720 --> 01:13:53.159
top of that, what we love to do is use

1554
01:13:53.159 --> 01:13:55.840
our risk analyzing tool because what this will allow us

1555
01:13:55.880 --> 01:13:58.840
to do is after putting in all your portfolio holdings

1556
01:13:58.880 --> 01:14:00.800
into the software, we'll get an out actual risk number

1557
01:14:00.800 --> 01:14:02.880
from one to one hundred. Say it's seventy seven and

1558
01:14:02.920 --> 01:14:05.199
you come in at a sixty. We know your portfolio

1559
01:14:05.239 --> 01:14:08.760
is to aggress too much aggressive on the allocation compared

1560
01:14:08.760 --> 01:14:11.000
to what your risk tolerance is, so we can lower

1561
01:14:11.119 --> 01:14:13.560
or show you what a portfolio looks like as sixty

1562
01:14:13.800 --> 01:14:16.359
and what it means if another market drop happens, but

1563
01:14:16.399 --> 01:14:18.600
also what it means if you de risk your portfolio

1564
01:14:18.680 --> 01:14:21.119
here when the market's low, Because if you de risk

1565
01:14:21.159 --> 01:14:23.920
your porfolio when the market's low, it's not technically selling,

1566
01:14:23.960 --> 01:14:25.239
but it means that you're not going to have the

1567
01:14:25.239 --> 01:14:28.000
same pop when the markets do come back. So I

1568
01:14:28.039 --> 01:14:29.880
had a couple of clients where they're like, what if

1569
01:14:29.880 --> 01:14:31.960
we just you know, I want to freeze the account.

1570
01:14:32.000 --> 01:14:34.520
That's that was their term. They want to freeze the account,

1571
01:14:34.520 --> 01:14:37.800
stop the dropping, right, And you can't tell them that

1572
01:14:37.960 --> 01:14:41.039
it's not going to maybe drop more because it can.

1573
01:14:41.760 --> 01:14:44.079
But the idea of de risking your portfolio when the

1574
01:14:44.079 --> 01:14:46.600
market's low is the exact opposite of what we should

1575
01:14:46.600 --> 01:14:47.800
be doing. I was telling the client what we do

1576
01:14:47.880 --> 01:14:50.520
now is actually buy like we've been doing.

1577
01:14:50.800 --> 01:14:50.920
Right.

1578
01:14:51.199 --> 01:14:54.159
You put that conservative side to work, and then when

1579
01:14:54.159 --> 01:14:55.800
we get back to the market, all the time highs

1580
01:14:55.800 --> 01:14:57.279
and we keep climbing higher, hiering, and it starts to

1581
01:14:57.319 --> 01:14:59.880
feel like it's everyone's happy. That's when we de risk.

1582
01:15:00.439 --> 01:15:02.359
We take the risk side, sell it off, and put

1583
01:15:02.359 --> 01:15:04.520
it to the cash side and the safe side.

1584
01:15:04.600 --> 01:15:06.880
So you've got a twenty percent discount on the S

1585
01:15:06.920 --> 01:15:09.479
and P five hund or something you almost never see.

1586
01:15:10.199 --> 01:15:12.720
Right now, we're down fifteen right now, roughly fifteen, but

1587
01:15:13.520 --> 01:15:16.079
twenty percent off of the high. When you drop below

1588
01:15:16.159 --> 01:15:20.159
five thousand, you get a twenty percent drop in anything

1589
01:15:20.199 --> 01:15:23.119
you're interested in buying. And you don't buy and it

1590
01:15:23.159 --> 01:15:25.239
comes back to full price, you just have to be

1591
01:15:25.319 --> 01:15:28.079
kicking yourself, and that's gonna happen here.

1592
01:15:28.279 --> 01:15:31.119
Also, I think this drop hurts a lot of people

1593
01:15:31.159 --> 01:15:34.800
more than past drops because of the last two to

1594
01:15:35.079 --> 01:15:37.199
two and a half years of just such good growth.

1595
01:15:37.680 --> 01:15:40.079
So you're always happy when the market. When you're account

1596
01:15:40.239 --> 01:15:42.920
getting hired hired higher, your liquidation value on your portfolio

1597
01:15:42.960 --> 01:15:45.239
is getting higher, hired higher. But guess what happens when

1598
01:15:45.279 --> 01:15:49.279
you gets higher compounding the dollar value fluctuations in your

1599
01:15:49.279 --> 01:15:52.119
account are going to get bigger and bigger. That's not

1600
01:15:52.199 --> 01:15:54.439
a bad thing, it just means that you can't have

1601
01:15:54.479 --> 01:15:56.680
the same idea of a ten thousand drop meaning to

1602
01:15:56.800 --> 01:15:59.399
you emotionally. It can't have the same emotional meaning that

1603
01:15:59.439 --> 01:16:02.119
when you're count was at one hundred thousand, ten thousand,

1604
01:16:02.159 --> 01:16:04.119
drop one hundred thousand. That's a ten percent drop. That's

1605
01:16:04.119 --> 01:16:08.000
pretty meaningful. A thousand dollars drop on a one million

1606
01:16:08.039 --> 01:16:10.880
dollar portfolio is not meaningful. It's one percent. So you

1607
01:16:10.880 --> 01:16:13.680
cannot have the same emotional feeling of a temp thousand

1608
01:16:13.680 --> 01:16:16.359
dollars drop when your account has ballooned in size over

1609
01:16:16.359 --> 01:16:17.079
the last two years.

1610
01:16:17.199 --> 01:16:22.279
Right exactly. And we often talk on the show about

1611
01:16:22.279 --> 01:16:25.880
how we don't follow the Dow, we follow the s

1612
01:16:25.920 --> 01:16:29.279
and P five hundred. I will say for the Dow committed,

1613
01:16:29.359 --> 01:16:33.399
they do a pretty good job of finding thirty stocks

1614
01:16:33.439 --> 01:16:37.399
that perform pretty close to the five hundred stocks in

1615
01:16:37.439 --> 01:16:40.279
the SMP five hundred, But every now and then. For

1616
01:16:40.560 --> 01:16:44.079
if you went home on Thursday afternoon and said, how

1617
01:16:44.079 --> 01:16:46.520
did the market do? And you turn on the TV

1618
01:16:46.640 --> 01:16:50.079
and you see the Dow Jones industrial averages down five

1619
01:16:50.439 --> 01:16:55.079
hundred points, you don't realize that the actual market was up.

1620
01:16:55.560 --> 01:16:59.359
The overall market was up. The Dow thirty was down

1621
01:16:59.399 --> 01:17:04.239
five hundred points because of one stock, United Healthcare, you know,

1622
01:17:04.239 --> 01:17:08.039
had Healthcare. It was up fifteen to fifteen percent this year.

1623
01:17:08.279 --> 01:17:10.840
They've actually been making a pretty nice comeback after the

1624
01:17:10.960 --> 01:17:15.359
murder of their CEO, but it plunged twenty percent on Thursday.

1625
01:17:15.399 --> 01:17:18.000
They missed earnings by just a few pennies, but they

1626
01:17:18.039 --> 01:17:22.279
did give disappointing guidance. There's been some positive things for

1627
01:17:22.359 --> 01:17:25.199
the company from the Trump administration, but it gives you

1628
01:17:25.239 --> 01:17:28.920
an example. On Friday, the excuse me. On Thursday, the

1629
01:17:29.000 --> 01:17:31.720
S and P five hundred finished the day up five points.

1630
01:17:31.760 --> 01:17:34.640
I think it was the Dow Jones industrial average. The

1631
01:17:34.720 --> 01:17:39.199
thirty stock average was down five hundred That's not representative

1632
01:17:39.720 --> 01:17:41.520
of what went on. That's one of the reasons we had.

1633
01:17:41.600 --> 01:17:44.960
Dow on Friday looked like it was just disconnected. Yeah, ridiculous.

1634
01:17:45.000 --> 01:17:47.159
That showed the weekends of having only thirty stocks in

1635
01:17:47.199 --> 01:17:47.600
an index.

1636
01:17:47.720 --> 01:17:49.359
Yeah, that's why we don't follow us. That's why we

1637
01:17:49.399 --> 01:17:51.600
follow the S and P five hundred. Speaking of which,

1638
01:17:51.680 --> 01:17:54.000
the worst performing stocks in the S and P five

1639
01:17:54.079 --> 01:17:58.640
hundred so far in twenty twenty five number one Decker

1640
01:17:58.920 --> 01:18:04.359
Outdoor the shock down for they've been citing tariffs on

1641
01:18:04.439 --> 01:18:06.079
China and Vietnam.

1642
01:18:06.479 --> 01:18:08.720
Well that's also if you don't remember, that's the people

1643
01:18:08.720 --> 01:18:12.680
who make like the Hocus and uh, you know, we

1644
01:18:12.760 --> 01:18:15.960
know all about Hokus in this office. Do you know

1645
01:18:17.119 --> 01:18:18.800
ordered thirteen pairs of Hocus?

1646
01:18:18.960 --> 01:18:20.520
Yeah, I saw that thirteen pair.

1647
01:18:20.680 --> 01:18:23.640
Yeah, and it wasn't a misty. Explained how that it

1648
01:18:23.720 --> 01:18:24.399
wasn't a mistake.

1649
01:18:24.520 --> 01:18:25.319
It's kind of funny.

1650
01:18:25.359 --> 01:18:27.880
Actually, well, he didn't want to go to the running

1651
01:18:27.880 --> 01:18:31.640
store to to try on eleven and a half or

1652
01:18:31.760 --> 01:18:33.159
eleven and a half wides.

1653
01:18:32.920 --> 01:18:34.920
Filind triff was eleven and a half or eleven right

1654
01:18:35.239 --> 01:18:37.239
eleven and a half versus eleven and a half wide

1655
01:18:37.279 --> 01:18:39.920
with right. Yeah, so he ordered five pairs of each.

1656
01:18:43.399 --> 01:18:46.600
It sounds like something my wife wouldnt.

1657
01:18:47.279 --> 01:18:50.680
Yeah. Yeah, he's such a good man though, because instead

1658
01:18:50.680 --> 01:18:52.600
of returning them, he starts just giving him away to

1659
01:18:52.760 --> 01:18:54.000
like his coaches.

1660
01:18:53.600 --> 01:18:56.359
And you know, yeah, no, that's too Denius.

1661
01:18:57.119 --> 01:19:00.479
He's very generous. I mean that's why I work for

1662
01:19:00.560 --> 01:19:04.520
him is because he coached me in lacrosse in high school.

1663
01:19:04.600 --> 01:19:06.119
Yeah, and I work for him because he needs me

1664
01:19:06.319 --> 01:19:09.399
well as opposed to because he've coached me in high school.

1665
01:19:09.600 --> 01:19:11.600
Oh yeah, you don't want to tell your story about you, kid,

1666
01:19:11.800 --> 01:19:15.239
but see my story is he He gave me a lot,

1667
01:19:15.520 --> 01:19:18.319
you know, and he's always been a generous man. And

1668
01:19:18.079 --> 01:19:20.520
that's what I think the listeners really gravitate to when

1669
01:19:20.520 --> 01:19:22.720
we come to the plan. Sometimes they just love hearing

1670
01:19:22.800 --> 01:19:24.960
Dean and want to talk to Dean just specifically because

1671
01:19:24.960 --> 01:19:26.319
they've been listening to him for so many times.

1672
01:19:26.359 --> 01:19:29.079
When he comes across as honest because he is.

1673
01:19:29.119 --> 01:19:30.159
Oh he's one hundred percent.

1674
01:19:30.439 --> 01:19:32.520
I mean, you just you never have to guess what

1675
01:19:32.600 --> 01:19:35.479
how Dean, what Dean's thinking, or what do you want

1676
01:19:35.600 --> 01:19:40.560
to deal with? Somebody who's reasonably priced, works hard, honest,

1677
01:19:40.960 --> 01:19:43.600
that's us. I mean, that's who we are, because that's

1678
01:19:43.600 --> 01:19:44.159
who Dean is.

1679
01:19:44.319 --> 01:19:47.159
But also we've given a lot back in ways that

1680
01:19:47.199 --> 01:19:49.600
you're not going to see unless you would actually know

1681
01:19:49.720 --> 01:19:50.399
us personally.

1682
01:19:50.920 --> 01:19:53.800
Dean especially unbelievable I think a lot of.

1683
01:19:53.720 --> 01:19:56.119
People with his personality, you would think he's not the

1684
01:19:56.159 --> 01:19:57.520
generous type of person that he is.

1685
01:19:58.920 --> 01:19:59.199
Trump.

1686
01:19:59.640 --> 01:20:03.840
Yeah, right, very good way put Trump. You'll hate him,

1687
01:20:03.840 --> 01:20:05.600
But if you hate him, you don't know him. Yes,

1688
01:20:05.680 --> 01:20:08.079
I mean it's that simple. There's nothing to hate about

1689
01:20:08.119 --> 01:20:10.920
this guy. Kind of like Elon Musk. Oh, there's nothing

1690
01:20:10.920 --> 01:20:12.399
hate about him. I must one of the one of

1691
01:20:12.399 --> 01:20:15.000
the heroes. I mean, it's just an incredible human being.

1692
01:20:15.239 --> 01:20:18.840
Uh. It makes me really mad when people say Elon

1693
01:20:18.960 --> 01:20:22.600
Musk didn't build his businesses, like he didn't take the risks.

1694
01:20:22.760 --> 01:20:24.039
Yeah, he called idiot.

1695
01:20:24.119 --> 01:20:26.680
He was working, sleeping at his office. I mean, the

1696
01:20:27.000 --> 01:20:30.640
guy almost bankrupted himself after being one hundred millionaire. I mean,

1697
01:20:30.640 --> 01:20:32.159
you made a hundred million dollars, what are you doing?

1698
01:20:32.560 --> 01:20:34.920
Don't bet all your one hundred million dollars in another company?

1699
01:20:35.680 --> 01:20:38.119
He did that and one idiot.

1700
01:20:39.000 --> 01:20:41.279
And then you get mad at him for taking the

1701
01:20:41.319 --> 01:20:45.560
biggest bet going against an industry of car makers that

1702
01:20:45.640 --> 01:20:47.960
no one at the time said, you were absolutely stupid.

1703
01:20:48.000 --> 01:20:50.680
You're what are you thinking you're gonna get going against

1704
01:20:50.840 --> 01:20:53.039
the gms of the world, and forge you're gonna lose?

1705
01:20:53.720 --> 01:20:56.319
And he almost did two thousand and eight happens almost

1706
01:20:56.359 --> 01:21:00.439
completely bankrupt turns the company completely around, and now he

1707
01:21:00.520 --> 01:21:02.920
got lucky or given he was given.

1708
01:21:03.159 --> 01:21:05.279
The company put more electric vehicles on the roads, and

1709
01:21:05.359 --> 01:21:06.720
every other car company.

1710
01:21:06.399 --> 01:21:10.159
Combined saved astronauts from space after creating that car company,

1711
01:21:10.359 --> 01:21:12.880
making another company because NASA said, no, you know what,

1712
01:21:12.920 --> 01:21:15.039
we can't do it five hundred because the government doesn't

1713
01:21:15.039 --> 01:21:17.520
know how to run operations. So NASA completely shuts down,

1714
01:21:17.520 --> 01:21:22.079
stops all space funding space flights. And think about if

1715
01:21:22.119 --> 01:21:24.880
we never have SpaceX get created, how do those astronauts

1716
01:21:24.920 --> 01:21:26.439
get saved? Because NASA wouldn't have done it.

1717
01:21:26.520 --> 01:21:28.520
One of his companies has a has a device that

1718
01:21:28.560 --> 01:21:31.359
you implant in your brain that will help people who

1719
01:21:31.399 --> 01:21:35.039
are paralyzed move. I mean, yeah, what pro Why wouldn't

1720
01:21:35.039 --> 01:21:35.600
you hate this guy?

1721
01:21:35.640 --> 01:21:36.760
It's proven that they can do.

1722
01:21:36.880 --> 01:21:39.159
I mean, why wouldn't you hate this guy building.

1723
01:21:38.800 --> 01:21:42.760
Tunnels underground, solving our traffic war? Yeah?

1724
01:21:42.800 --> 01:21:45.960
And the number two was performing stock on the S

1725
01:21:46.039 --> 01:21:51.039
and P year today it is yes, Tesla. Isn't that

1726
01:21:51.079 --> 01:21:52.479
something after? You know?

1727
01:21:52.560 --> 01:21:55.159
I mean quick take a picture. I mean what two

1728
01:21:55.159 --> 01:21:57.159
months ago he was doing just fine?

1729
01:21:57.239 --> 01:21:57.439
Right?

1730
01:21:57.800 --> 01:22:02.439
And isn't this the same guy? That supported Biden. Have

1731
01:22:02.520 --> 01:22:03.640
we all forgotten that?

1732
01:22:03.920 --> 01:22:04.920
I forgot?

1733
01:22:05.119 --> 01:22:05.359
Yeah?

1734
01:22:05.439 --> 01:22:09.199
Did absolutely like verbally absolutely, yeah, he was a Biden supporter.

1735
01:22:09.319 --> 01:22:10.960
I don't think at the same level that he is

1736
01:22:10.960 --> 01:22:11.399
a Trump's.

1737
01:22:11.479 --> 01:22:13.119
No, No, the Trump thing is fair.

1738
01:22:13.840 --> 01:22:14.479
It's pretty hard.

1739
01:22:14.560 --> 01:22:16.600
I get that. I get that, And I don't know

1740
01:22:16.680 --> 01:22:20.439
that people hate Musk so much as they hate Trump,

1741
01:22:20.880 --> 01:22:24.279
and Musk is a way to get there's actually something

1742
01:22:24.439 --> 01:22:27.600
physical you can hate that helps you well.

1743
01:22:27.600 --> 01:22:29.439
Also, I think it's just unfortunate that people on the

1744
01:22:29.520 --> 01:22:31.560
left will think that if you voted for Trump you

1745
01:22:31.640 --> 01:22:35.479
have what they deem as these are your core values,

1746
01:22:35.600 --> 01:22:37.960
you're a terrible human being, because they think anyone who

1747
01:22:38.039 --> 01:22:39.840
voted for Trump has to be a terrible human.

1748
01:22:41.079 --> 01:22:41.279
Yeah.

1749
01:22:41.279 --> 01:22:44.199
And it's just it's so sad that you have generalized

1750
01:22:44.680 --> 01:22:49.319
tribal mentality, because it's exactly how things like war, the Holocaust,

1751
01:22:49.359 --> 01:22:51.680
the worst things humanity has ever created, is when they

1752
01:22:51.680 --> 01:22:54.239
have tribal mindsets like that, where they live in an

1753
01:22:54.239 --> 01:22:56.840
echo chamber, saying I'm right and only me is right,

1754
01:22:57.079 --> 01:22:59.560
my group is right. You can't tell me I'm ever wrong.

1755
01:23:00.439 --> 01:23:01.399
That's sad.

1756
01:23:01.640 --> 01:23:04.199
I'm coming up on two years of driving Mike Tesla

1757
01:23:04.760 --> 01:23:08.680
and Uh, it's the I've been fortunate enough over the

1758
01:23:08.760 --> 01:23:12.520
years to have owned almost every brand of luxury car

1759
01:23:12.720 --> 01:23:15.520
that is out there, and none of them will hold

1760
01:23:15.560 --> 01:23:19.159
a candle to this car. And I always jokingly say,

1761
01:23:19.199 --> 01:23:23.239
in the last three months, I've driven a tree hugger

1762
01:23:23.279 --> 01:23:27.399
car and a Nazi car and never changed cars. If

1763
01:23:27.439 --> 01:23:30.920
it's been amazing, But the problem is my car when

1764
01:23:30.960 --> 01:23:33.560
I does not know whether to turn left or right,

1765
01:23:33.880 --> 01:23:36.600
it's very confused. The car is very confused.

1766
01:23:36.680 --> 01:23:38.439
Yeah, it wants to even go straight. But that's not

1767
01:23:38.479 --> 01:23:38.840
an option.

1768
01:23:39.000 --> 01:23:41.800
Yeah, going straight not an option, not in this not

1769
01:23:41.920 --> 01:23:45.079
in this country, in this country. Not because if you

1770
01:23:45.159 --> 01:23:47.319
if you're not left or right, then you're an idiot. Right,

1771
01:23:47.359 --> 01:23:49.239
it's something, something is the matter.

1772
01:23:48.960 --> 01:23:52.199
With Yeah, there's a double joke, but it's it's.

1773
01:23:52.079 --> 01:23:54.560
Unfortunate that we've gotten a point in this country where

1774
01:23:54.800 --> 01:23:57.399
where compromise is a sign of weakness.

1775
01:23:57.720 --> 01:24:00.000
And yeah, yeah, I mean you can just look at

1776
01:24:00.239 --> 01:24:01.840
how none of the blue will vote for the red

1777
01:24:01.880 --> 01:24:04.159
red blue. We need the change in this country.

1778
01:24:04.199 --> 01:24:07.319
Not a single Democratic senator would say, yes, it's wrong

1779
01:24:07.359 --> 01:24:10.439
for men to be in women's sports when the country

1780
01:24:10.520 --> 01:24:13.640
believe that, Are you kidding me? What that's that's that's

1781
01:24:13.760 --> 01:24:17.199
party ahead of country. We'll be back right after this

1782
01:24:17.239 --> 01:24:20.560
break with more. The last segment actually of the Money

1783
01:24:20.560 --> 01:24:21.520
Matter Show. Happy Easter.

1784
01:24:22.880 --> 01:24:25.279
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Todglick.

1785
01:24:25.279 --> 01:24:29.079
I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Sebastian Borsini and David Sherwood.

1786
01:24:29.800 --> 01:24:30.000
Man.

1787
01:24:30.039 --> 01:24:35.239
We've had tumultuous last couple of months gone. I know,

1788
01:24:35.359 --> 01:24:36.880
I don't even know if I said the word right.

1789
01:24:36.960 --> 01:24:40.319
I just gotta go with it, don't bring it back up,

1790
01:24:40.359 --> 01:24:45.359
don't point it out. We've had new Money Matter shows

1791
01:24:45.680 --> 01:24:48.640
being aired this week. Dylan and Dean will be on

1792
01:24:49.159 --> 01:24:50.039
after Meet the Press.

1793
01:24:50.199 --> 01:24:52.880
These are the educational, educational, but.

1794
01:24:52.800 --> 01:24:53.920
We just did them. They're really good.

1795
01:24:53.960 --> 01:24:54.600
Yeah, they're fresh.

1796
01:24:54.760 --> 01:24:55.319
I love them.

1797
01:24:55.319 --> 01:24:57.720
This Sea Beast will start putting them on The YouTube

1798
01:24:58.079 --> 01:25:01.439
promises radio show to be all good. We're up and

1799
01:25:01.479 --> 01:25:04.319
running every single week. But more than that, we apologize

1800
01:25:04.319 --> 01:25:07.159
again for our phones being down on Monday and Tuesday.

1801
01:25:07.319 --> 01:25:12.560
Really odd, weird. Hopefully never happened again. Occurrence, but our

1802
01:25:12.600 --> 01:25:14.960
phone we were not busy. Might have sounded like our

1803
01:25:15.000 --> 01:25:16.760
phones are busy. That's what it was saying. We were

1804
01:25:16.760 --> 01:25:18.520
not busy. We were here just.

1805
01:25:18.520 --> 01:25:20.720
Now had a young guy come in and change out

1806
01:25:20.760 --> 01:25:25.439
the cable boxes, and when he left, we noticed that

1807
01:25:25.439 --> 01:25:28.600
our phones were down. Well, on a Friday afternoon, you're

1808
01:25:28.600 --> 01:25:31.399
not going to get anybody to come out. Monday, we start,

1809
01:25:31.399 --> 01:25:33.119
We get ahold of the phone company. They come on,

1810
01:25:33.239 --> 01:25:35.920
they go, no, it's definitely the cable company. So back

1811
01:25:35.960 --> 01:25:38.720
we go to the cable company and first thing Tuesday

1812
01:25:38.720 --> 01:25:40.720
morning they come out. But we were without phones from

1813
01:25:40.840 --> 01:25:45.079
noon Friday until Tuesday mornings. And what they said is

1814
01:25:45.119 --> 01:25:49.119
it looks like there's a connection that's loose. They were

1815
01:25:49.159 --> 01:25:51.520
doing it, trying to do it remotely. And so I'm

1816
01:25:51.760 --> 01:25:53.560
in there in this phone room, which is full of

1817
01:25:53.600 --> 01:25:55.800
wires run all over the place. I'm thinking, I can't

1818
01:25:55.800 --> 01:25:59.199
even imagine what if I would have just pushed every

1819
01:25:59.239 --> 01:26:01.600
one of them in a little bit more, I could

1820
01:26:01.640 --> 01:26:03.680
have fixed the problem, because that's all was. It was

1821
01:26:03.760 --> 01:26:06.760
one wire that this kid had had pulled out and

1822
01:26:06.800 --> 01:26:09.279
had not put back in all the way, so there

1823
01:26:09.279 --> 01:26:12.439
was no connection. And he walked in there. The guy

1824
01:26:12.479 --> 01:26:16.399
from the cocks showed up five minutes he said, okay,

1825
01:26:16.399 --> 01:26:18.600
I'm done. I said, you got to get kidding me.

1826
01:26:19.279 --> 01:26:21.640
And he takes me in there and shows me one clip.

1827
01:26:22.079 --> 01:26:24.199
All I had to is push it in, and.

1828
01:26:24.159 --> 01:26:25.439
We just don't know what clip it was.

1829
01:26:25.479 --> 01:26:29.359
So like twenty five wires back there, and I guess

1830
01:26:29.439 --> 01:26:31.880
I could have pushed every one of them in. That

1831
01:26:31.880 --> 01:26:32.800
wouldn't have been that big.

1832
01:26:32.920 --> 01:26:34.960
That's that's the lesson, just pushing in les.

1833
01:26:35.279 --> 01:26:37.479
Yeah, it's like it's like I'm the it guy here

1834
01:26:37.479 --> 01:26:39.800
in the office because I know that when you have

1835
01:26:39.840 --> 01:26:42.720
something wrong with your computer, you turn it off, yeah,

1836
01:26:42.800 --> 01:26:44.479
and then turn it back on and oft times the

1837
01:26:44.520 --> 01:26:45.319
problem will be solved.

1838
01:26:45.319 --> 01:26:46.359
I plug it restarted.

1839
01:26:46.439 --> 01:26:48.000
Got anything on Costco this week?

1840
01:26:48.479 --> 01:26:50.640
Uh? No, other than it did? It did well?

1841
01:26:50.720 --> 01:26:52.560
It was doing well, I mean five percent last week,

1842
01:26:52.640 --> 01:26:52.920
up three.

1843
01:26:52.960 --> 01:26:56.359
Painting that as the economy slows down, people will be

1844
01:26:56.600 --> 01:27:01.720
sent to places like TJX and Costco and Walmart. They'll

1845
01:27:01.760 --> 01:27:02.640
they'll get more business.

1846
01:27:02.720 --> 01:27:04.680
Where's Kirkland made And we got to figure that out.

1847
01:27:04.680 --> 01:27:10.199
That's no where? Oh yeah, because we know Kirkland signature.

1848
01:27:10.239 --> 01:27:13.119
Do we know is it made in America or is

1849
01:27:13.119 --> 01:27:14.000
it made in Actually?

1850
01:27:14.359 --> 01:27:16.399
Yeah, But there's an awfully a lot of things to

1851
01:27:16.399 --> 01:27:18.920
carry the Krookland brand, So you're thinking they all come

1852
01:27:18.960 --> 01:27:20.359
from a Kirkland factory.

1853
01:27:20.399 --> 01:27:23.600
Somewhere I don't know might happen good housekeeping on right now.

1854
01:27:23.640 --> 01:27:27.760
The one that puzzles me, and we certainly know from

1855
01:27:27.920 --> 01:27:30.399
the numbers I gave in the first hour, that car

1856
01:27:30.479 --> 01:27:34.319
sales are red hot. Everybody's trying to get their car before.

1857
01:27:34.399 --> 01:27:36.079
If you need a car, you want to get it before.

1858
01:27:36.079 --> 01:27:37.760
They both use cars and new both.

1859
01:27:37.880 --> 01:27:38.079
Yeah.

1860
01:27:38.560 --> 01:27:41.560
Uh. The inventory level for new cars that dropped from

1861
01:27:41.560 --> 01:27:44.640
like seventy days to fifty days and the used cars

1862
01:27:44.640 --> 01:27:47.600
that dropped from forty five to thirty nine days. And

1863
01:27:47.680 --> 01:27:51.840
so those are and we thought going into this tariff

1864
01:27:51.960 --> 01:27:57.720
tantrum area that there would probably be opportunity in the

1865
01:27:57.880 --> 01:28:00.520
used car area, and of course car Man is one

1866
01:28:00.560 --> 01:28:03.840
of the big names there and Carmacks actually did rally

1867
01:28:03.880 --> 01:28:07.159
about ten percent in the first the last couple of

1868
01:28:07.199 --> 01:28:09.720
weeks of March in anticipation, well there's going to be

1869
01:28:09.720 --> 01:28:12.479
tariffs and the used car market is going to be

1870
01:28:12.520 --> 01:28:14.680
a better place for people to go with the new cars.

1871
01:28:15.239 --> 01:28:17.920
But then they reported earnings that were a little soft.

1872
01:28:17.960 --> 01:28:20.439
Now again, earnings for the last three months nothing to

1873
01:28:20.479 --> 01:28:24.119
do with it this tariff time, and they were a

1874
01:28:24.159 --> 01:28:27.199
little softer than expected. This doc drop twenty percent dropped

1875
01:28:27.199 --> 01:28:30.640
another ten percent last week, so it's thirty percent off

1876
01:28:30.680 --> 01:28:35.039
of is high in what ought to be a company

1877
01:28:35.119 --> 01:28:38.840
that does really really well going forward.

1878
01:28:39.359 --> 01:28:41.319
We get a lot of earnings report next week, some

1879
01:28:41.520 --> 01:28:46.000
big companies like the fence contractors. You're gonna get Tesla yep,

1880
01:28:46.039 --> 01:28:48.039
which fun We know we just got Netflix on Friday.

1881
01:28:48.039 --> 01:28:49.560
We talked about that in the first part of the show.

1882
01:28:49.600 --> 01:28:52.479
How almost kind of turning it into a consumer staple play,

1883
01:28:52.560 --> 01:28:54.800
which has been very interesting. It's been holding in there

1884
01:28:54.840 --> 01:28:57.720
almost better than any other Max seven has over the

1885
01:28:57.760 --> 01:29:00.399
course of this tariff tantrum that we've seen. So we

1886
01:29:00.399 --> 01:29:02.800
were wondering are they able to hold their gains into

1887
01:29:02.840 --> 01:29:05.840
this earnings report that seems like they've been performing too well,

1888
01:29:06.079 --> 01:29:08.880
and then they're two percent higher after market after that

1889
01:29:08.960 --> 01:29:11.760
report came out and they really beat almost on all

1890
01:29:11.840 --> 01:29:14.199
levels that looked like so doing really strong on the

1891
01:29:14.199 --> 01:29:16.840
Netflix side, and like I said, maybe turned it into

1892
01:29:16.840 --> 01:29:20.000
a consumer defensive play as a growth company. Yeah, well,

1893
01:29:20.159 --> 01:29:20.640
kind of funny.

1894
01:29:20.680 --> 01:29:23.920
I would I would think that they just as an observer,

1895
01:29:24.000 --> 01:29:27.600
I would think that the first quarter twenty twenty five

1896
01:29:27.720 --> 01:29:30.479
earnings reports that are going to be coming out over

1897
01:29:30.520 --> 01:29:34.520
the next few weeks. Maybe as irrelevant as any earnings

1898
01:29:34.560 --> 01:29:39.680
reports that I've ever expected, because this chaos didn't start

1899
01:29:39.760 --> 01:29:42.960
until April. So what happened in the first three months

1900
01:29:42.960 --> 01:29:44.920
of this year was you know, you go back thirty

1901
01:29:45.000 --> 01:29:47.840
days ago, it was a totally different world than we

1902
01:29:47.920 --> 01:29:52.199
have today before this this tariff chaos. So tariff tantrum

1903
01:29:52.279 --> 01:29:56.199
started to really ugly, had night and day difference.

1904
01:29:56.600 --> 01:29:59.279
His market's so volatile though they we have we've had

1905
01:29:59.399 --> 01:30:04.560
many economic reports that are backwards facing. The market acts like, yeah, exactly,

1906
01:30:04.640 --> 01:30:05.359
the market rack.

1907
01:30:05.359 --> 01:30:08.000
Like it's with weaker than expecting. You think that's going

1908
01:30:08.079 --> 01:30:10.880
to continue into this quarter? Right, the stocks down thirty

1909
01:30:10.920 --> 01:30:14.399
percent because you think that their business is gonna slow down.

1910
01:30:14.439 --> 01:30:16.600
Seems like some investors are driving with the review mirror.

1911
01:30:16.600 --> 01:30:17.359
It sounds like the FED.

1912
01:30:17.439 --> 01:30:21.479
I have some estimated global manufacturing breakdown for Kirkland signature products.

1913
01:30:21.479 --> 01:30:23.880
Oh it's worldwide, that is world wide, worldwide.

1914
01:30:23.920 --> 01:30:26.000
The United States is about fifty to sixty percent of

1915
01:30:26.039 --> 01:30:28.560
it though, and it is dependent on which product of course.

1916
01:30:28.640 --> 01:30:31.880
Yeah, the butter is made in New Zealand, So factories

1917
01:30:31.880 --> 01:30:32.479
in New Zealand.

1918
01:30:32.560 --> 01:30:36.720
Oh wow, So like the United States, they produce batteries diapers,

1919
01:30:36.760 --> 01:30:41.439
motor oil, coffee, mattresses, bottled water, Mexico ten to fifteen

1920
01:30:41.439 --> 01:30:45.600
percent tequila, avocados, limes, mangoes, Yeah, Canada ten to fifteen

1921
01:30:45.640 --> 01:30:46.920
percent maple syrup.

1922
01:30:47.279 --> 01:30:49.840
How cool would that job be? You know, you're the

1923
01:30:50.000 --> 01:30:52.000
owner of the Kirkland brands, and you're like, yeah, this,

1924
01:30:52.000 --> 01:30:53.760
this is the best place for tequila. We gotta go

1925
01:30:53.800 --> 01:30:55.680
to Mexico. This place is for butter. Let's go to

1926
01:30:55.720 --> 01:30:57.960
New Zealand. Let's go over here for oranges.

1927
01:30:58.439 --> 01:31:00.760
I mean the batteries are made at the dirself factory.

1928
01:31:01.119 --> 01:31:04.680
Imagine how much power Costco has in this world when

1929
01:31:04.680 --> 01:31:07.159
they decide that they want to put something on the shelf.

1930
01:31:07.439 --> 01:31:09.439
Oh my, but and then they make it from Kirkland,

1931
01:31:09.479 --> 01:31:12.039
and the way they do their store is just chaos.

1932
01:31:12.239 --> 01:31:13.039
So they didn't.

1933
01:31:12.800 --> 01:31:15.680
Always have Kirkland. That was one of the greatest purchases

1934
01:31:15.720 --> 01:31:16.600
of Costco.

1935
01:31:17.039 --> 01:31:17.520
Kirkland.

1936
01:31:17.560 --> 01:31:18.159
Yeah, they bought it.

1937
01:31:18.199 --> 01:31:19.119
They know that.

1938
01:31:19.199 --> 01:31:21.000
Yeah, I saw this on the CNBC. I didn't watch

1939
01:31:21.000 --> 01:31:22.439
the whole video, but it's a video on the CNBC

1940
01:31:22.640 --> 01:31:25.119
release and said one of the best moves that Costco

1941
01:31:25.159 --> 01:31:26.680
ever made buying Kirkland signature.

1942
01:31:27.000 --> 01:31:29.760
It is amazing, just as an overall mark, and I

1943
01:31:29.760 --> 01:31:32.560
don't disagree with Dean. I think he probably is on track.

1944
01:31:32.680 --> 01:31:35.039
We finished with the S and P at five thousand

1945
01:31:35.159 --> 01:31:38.760
to eighty two. I think if it gets under five thousand,

1946
01:31:39.479 --> 01:31:42.800
you've got to buy something. I think if it gets

1947
01:31:42.800 --> 01:31:47.239
above fifty seven fifty eight hundred, you probably need to

1948
01:31:47.399 --> 01:31:50.960
lighten up on something. I think if Nvidia gets back

1949
01:31:50.960 --> 01:31:53.319
to one twenty five, one thirty, you've got to lighten up.

1950
01:31:54.119 --> 01:31:56.520
I think if Nvidia gets down around eighty five ninety,

1951
01:31:56.560 --> 01:31:57.319
you gotta buy it.

1952
01:31:57.600 --> 01:31:58.279
Load up, you know.

1953
01:31:58.479 --> 01:31:59.439
Yeah, I did to load.

1954
01:31:59.279 --> 01:32:01.520
Up to load up on quality names. And I agree

1955
01:32:01.560 --> 01:32:05.680
with you, David. I think low April, maybe low in

1956
01:32:05.720 --> 01:32:07.239
April at the end of April.

1957
01:32:07.000 --> 01:32:08.000
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised.

1958
01:32:08.199 --> 01:32:10.319
And then I think quarter two is really strong. I

1959
01:32:10.319 --> 01:32:12.600
think back half of twenty five as iffy.

1960
01:32:12.840 --> 01:32:15.560
April is the second historically the second best month of

1961
01:32:15.600 --> 01:32:17.680
the year for the market. But of course that's been all.

1962
01:32:18.359 --> 01:32:19.359
You can throw that out.

1963
01:32:19.560 --> 01:32:21.399
Yeah, you've never had tariffs in April before.

1964
01:32:21.439 --> 01:32:24.039
No history is and again it's a reminder of the

1965
01:32:24.359 --> 01:32:28.640
history is simply a guide. It's not an absolute we've seen.

1966
01:32:29.079 --> 01:32:31.560
I think it was there was one month last year,

1967
01:32:31.600 --> 01:32:34.039
that's historically the worst. It was the only month that

1968
01:32:34.119 --> 01:32:36.720
was up in a ninety day period. So it's a

1969
01:32:37.079 --> 01:32:41.920
it's a it's just a guide. The Hewlett Packard came

1970
01:32:42.000 --> 01:32:44.279
out after hitting it. This is this is doc talk

1971
01:32:44.319 --> 01:32:47.439
about volatile. It hit a fifty two week high January

1972
01:32:47.479 --> 01:32:53.079
twenty second. Helott Packard dropped fifty percent since January twenty second,

1973
01:32:53.319 --> 01:32:55.800
hit a new two year low on April the fourth,

1974
01:32:56.239 --> 01:32:59.159
but on Tuesday a jump five percent after Elliott Management

1975
01:32:59.279 --> 01:33:03.359
the hedge five disclosed a position in the stock and

1976
01:33:03.920 --> 01:33:07.000
you know, drop fifty percent. Probably we can probably do

1977
01:33:07.079 --> 01:33:10.039
something to fix this. I think one of the better

1978
01:33:10.079 --> 01:33:12.439
performing areas over the past couple of weeks has been

1979
01:33:12.439 --> 01:33:15.800
the major banks. The major banks have really done well.

1980
01:33:15.960 --> 01:33:18.640
I think the uh for a five day period ending

1981
01:33:18.600 --> 01:33:23.880
in April fifteenth, the bank ETF had rallied nine percent.

1982
01:33:23.920 --> 01:33:24.520
I believe it was.

1983
01:33:24.720 --> 01:33:26.119
I mean, I don't know how terrorifts are going to

1984
01:33:26.159 --> 01:33:29.319
directly impact banking stocks.

1985
01:33:30.359 --> 01:33:31.920
The you know, the bank stocks.

1986
01:33:32.039 --> 01:33:35.920
Yeah, yeah, I definitely, I mean very indirectly. If anything.

1987
01:33:36.399 --> 01:33:39.039
I think, almost like we said, this is a tariff tantrum.

1988
01:33:39.359 --> 01:33:41.840
Half of what these socks have been hit are not

1989
01:33:41.880 --> 01:33:44.560
going to be impacted the way investors have punished them for.

1990
01:33:44.600 --> 01:33:47.600
Being Yeah, it's like Tesla was down seven percent on

1991
01:33:47.680 --> 01:33:50.760
Wednesday after Reuters came out and said that the suspension

1992
01:33:50.800 --> 01:33:55.479
of his tariff tantrum is going to cause the suspension

1993
01:33:55.560 --> 01:34:00.199
of importing of components from China for cyber cab been

1994
01:34:00.399 --> 01:34:03.800
semi electric truck production and it could hurt Tesla. And

1995
01:34:03.800 --> 01:34:07.000
I'm thinking, isn't Tesla the most made in America car?

1996
01:34:07.439 --> 01:34:09.760
And I believe the Tesla model? Why is one hundred

1997
01:34:09.800 --> 01:34:12.800
percent made in America? How does that have anything to

1998
01:34:12.840 --> 01:34:16.039
do with it? But down seven percent on that news.

1999
01:34:16.560 --> 01:34:20.000
Who knows your PDD Holdings made made the news? Did

2000
01:34:20.000 --> 01:34:24.319
you see that your Timu? No PDD Holdings is the

2001
01:34:24.319 --> 01:34:25.680
parent company of Timu.

2002
01:34:26.399 --> 01:34:29.800
The thing that destroyed twenty one or whatever they call it,

2003
01:34:29.880 --> 01:34:33.800
forever twenty one? What about it forever twenty one? They said,

2004
01:34:33.800 --> 01:34:37.199
that's the reason bank because of remember, oh.

2005
01:34:37.079 --> 01:34:38.640
For the second time they had to go bankrupt.

2006
01:34:38.680 --> 01:34:41.159
Yeah, and that was it wasn't their fault, it was

2007
01:34:41.159 --> 01:34:41.760
t Mochin.

2008
01:34:41.880 --> 01:34:42.560
It wasn't our fault.

2009
01:34:43.239 --> 01:34:44.079
Bankrup twice.

2010
01:34:44.520 --> 01:34:47.279
PDD Holdings has dropped thirty percent in the last thirty

2011
01:34:47.359 --> 01:34:50.039
days on these tariffs, which is just going to kill them, right.

2012
01:34:50.880 --> 01:34:54.840
Their app had been number one on the Apple Store

2013
01:34:54.920 --> 01:34:58.359
for two years, no number one app on the Apple

2014
01:34:58.399 --> 01:35:01.199
Store for the last two years. It has dropped by

2015
01:35:01.319 --> 01:35:05.640
sixty two percent in the last thirty days. And I

2016
01:35:05.680 --> 01:35:08.000
don't I don't follow this like you guys probably do,

2017
01:35:08.079 --> 01:35:11.640
but says their ads on Facebook and on Google have

2018
01:35:12.039 --> 01:35:13.000
totally disappeared.

2019
01:35:14.199 --> 01:35:14.840
I didn't notice.

2020
01:35:14.840 --> 01:35:17.079
But now that you say, yeah, they're not there, I've

2021
01:35:17.199 --> 01:35:18.520
used to. They were everywhere before.

2022
01:35:18.760 --> 01:35:19.079
Yeah.

2023
01:35:19.439 --> 01:35:20.640
Yeah, I couldn't get away from.

2024
01:35:20.520 --> 01:35:24.119
That way you say that, Yeah, you're that Google is well,

2025
01:35:24.159 --> 01:35:26.399
I mean I think you probably have to cut back

2026
01:35:26.520 --> 01:35:28.600
your spending if you're not going to be able to

2027
01:35:28.640 --> 01:35:32.960
sell anything. I would say, so, I mean you're spending

2028
01:35:33.000 --> 01:35:34.520
I'm sorry, we cut wages.

2029
01:35:35.159 --> 01:35:37.680
Yeah, well you're not. That wasn't the point. The point

2030
01:35:37.720 --> 01:35:39.520
is my twelve dollars headphone now was gonna be twenty

2031
01:35:39.560 --> 01:35:41.439
four dollars. No, I might just go to Amazon though.

2032
01:35:41.880 --> 01:35:44.920
Yeah. A giant game of chicken going on between between

2033
01:35:44.920 --> 01:35:47.720
Trump and she and uh. I don't think China has

2034
01:35:47.840 --> 01:35:51.159
much of a shot of making this come out their

2035
01:35:51.199 --> 01:35:54.199
way now. I think it's how do we say faith

2036
01:35:54.239 --> 01:35:57.039
and not give, not give the us too much. And

2037
01:35:57.560 --> 01:36:00.239
we all want to be happy yep. And we don't

2038
01:36:00.239 --> 01:36:01.800
want to be healthy because if we're not healthy, we

2039
01:36:01.840 --> 01:36:04.920
won't be happy, right and a Greenberg Financial What we

2040
01:36:05.039 --> 01:36:08.279
really want to be is profitable. See you next week.

2041
01:36:13.079 --> 01:36:13.119
M