From Market Sell-offs to Risk Mitigation: Strategies for Portfolio Diversification and Financial Planning

100:00:05,080 --> 00:00:08,439Good morning everybody. This is Sundaymorning. It's s eight o'clock in the200:00:08,480 --> 00:00:13,880morning and Hits Money Matters Time sevenninety K and st is where you hear300:00:13,919 --> 00:00:17,280it. Whether you're listening on theradio, you're listening on one of our400:00:17,480 --> 00:00:23,359new technology advices, whether you're listeningon Spot on the podcast. We just500:00:23,440 --> 00:00:29,640are appreciatives of all the people thatare making our show be number one show600:00:30,160 --> 00:00:35,200on the weekends. Do appreciate it. Our ratings are great and it's helping700:00:35,320 --> 00:00:40,039us build a nice business here.And I can't I can't be more thankful800:00:40,119 --> 00:00:44,840for what's happened over the last thirtythree years of doing this radio show and900:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,280giving giving out the advice of whatwe think is going on. All right's1000:00:49,359 --> 00:00:53,920where are we in this thing goingon? The markets obviously had another little1100:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,119rough week that twice this week theywere trying to get up. I mean1200:00:57,159 --> 00:01:00,640the s andps were up forty fiftyalmost sixty points and they turned down for1300:01:00,759 --> 00:01:04,560the day twice. The markets arehaving trouble moving forward and getting traction.1400:01:06,079 --> 00:01:11,239We keep putting in higher, lowerhighs and lower lows. That type of1500:01:11,280 --> 00:01:17,879formation usually breaks off and culminates witha sell off. That gives you a1600:01:18,040 --> 00:01:23,599buying opportunity. We have been mitigatingrisk for a while. We definitely still1700:01:23,640 --> 00:01:29,760mitigating risk as it's been coming downand breaking down through support, and as1800:01:29,799 --> 00:01:33,079sometime when we get to support andthe markets look like they can kind of1900:01:33,079 --> 00:01:38,000bottom out a little bit, we'lltake off some of that mitigating riskers hedges2000:01:38,879 --> 00:01:41,719and we'll look to go the otherway. One of the things you've got2100:01:41,719 --> 00:01:45,599to be careful about is like alot of portfolios we see have so many2200:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,879stocks in them. I mean,you know, I'm talking about hundreds and2300:01:48,959 --> 00:01:55,200hundreds of stocks and a big portfolioand smaller portfolios maybe twenty five or thirty.2400:01:55,519 --> 00:02:00,680It's very hard to mitigate your risk. It's very hard to do that2500:02:00,760 --> 00:02:06,799unless you're sold everything all at once. I don't understand with today's ability to2600:02:06,879 --> 00:02:09,680use indexes, whether it's the DAW, whether it's the NASDAC, or whether2700:02:09,680 --> 00:02:13,919it's the S and P five hundred, that doesn't make up part of your2800:02:13,960 --> 00:02:19,319portfolio that you can always hedge againstor mitigate risk against while you hold some2900:02:19,360 --> 00:02:23,560of the other stocks outside there.But that's just you know, changing with3000:02:23,639 --> 00:02:25,800the times. I guess that's theway I look at it. You know,3100:02:27,280 --> 00:02:31,759consolidation makes it a lot simpler andmore nimble as we navigate what's going3200:02:31,840 --> 00:02:37,400on, not just in our economy, not just in our country, but3300:02:37,560 --> 00:02:42,800obviously around the world. As Isaid, this is the Money Matter Show3400:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,280and it is sponsored by Greenberg FinancialGroup. Greenberg Financial Group, it's both3500:02:46,280 --> 00:02:50,280the registered investment advisory and they brokea dealer. We're registered with the SEC,3600:02:50,479 --> 00:02:53,639members of fin and members of CIPPIC. On the show, we talk3700:02:53,680 --> 00:02:58,080about different products, strategies, ideasand all and we all have opinions.3800:02:58,319 --> 00:03:02,599I don't care what it is.You need to understand risks before you invest.3900:03:04,159 --> 00:03:07,000It's such a great idea to understandthe risk. And it doesn't matter4000:03:07,120 --> 00:03:13,439what it does, it's you understandingit. If it goes up. People4100:03:13,479 --> 00:03:15,360think if something goes up, itmakes you let them, oh, yeah,4200:03:15,360 --> 00:03:19,120I understood the risk, and assoon as it goes down they go,4300:03:19,199 --> 00:03:23,159oh, I didn't understand the risk. Understand the risk because that allows4400:03:23,199 --> 00:03:30,520you to figure out how much allocationof your portfolio you want in that scenario.4500:03:30,120 --> 00:03:34,599Now, that's part of the processwe do. We figure out what4600:03:34,680 --> 00:03:39,319your risk is. We figure outnot only by you going ahead and taking4700:03:39,400 --> 00:03:45,479a basically an artificial intelligence task thatgives you a whole bunch of different questions4800:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,479and then it kind of comes upwith an answer. And those questions are4900:03:49,479 --> 00:03:55,360based on your age, your cashflow, the ability of needing money or5000:03:55,439 --> 00:04:00,280not, any events that are comingup in the small future, how you5100:04:00,319 --> 00:04:03,159can invest for There's a lot ofthings that go into it. And the5200:04:03,280 --> 00:04:09,199greatest part is when you do therisk allize everyone is in a different situation,5300:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,000so it's according to you and youget a risk, But then we5400:04:12,120 --> 00:04:17,079talk it out what really is yourrisk tolerance and find out how you handle5500:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,959two thousand and eight, two thousandand one, how you handle two twenty5600:04:21,120 --> 00:04:25,920how you handled any markets in twotwenty two when they ended up going down?5700:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,680All now how you handling when they'regoing up. Of course, everyone5800:04:28,720 --> 00:04:32,240feels good when it's going up.But if you're complaining and not happy because5900:04:32,279 --> 00:04:38,879you're not making s and P orNASDAC type of returns and think that you6000:04:38,879 --> 00:04:42,120can call the bottom and call thetop, then you gotta read look and6100:04:42,199 --> 00:04:49,240think about is that realistic? Mitigatingrisk is so important today's world of investing.6200:04:49,879 --> 00:04:53,199Just sitting there and saying, oh, everything's gonna be okay, is6300:04:54,720 --> 00:04:59,600one way to do it if you'reyoung. But if you know you're approaching6400:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,240fifty sixty, or you're sixty fiveseventy or year seventy five, eighty or6500:05:03,360 --> 00:05:10,199plus, we don't have the fortitudeto say, oh, I just waited6600:05:10,199 --> 00:05:14,920out five more years okay, orten more years and wait for it all6700:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,839to come back. And you cando that, especially even not using the6800:05:17,879 --> 00:05:24,000money. But big, bigger thingis you don't have the income that's constantly6900:05:24,040 --> 00:05:28,279putting in new money to be ableto average down. That's the thing that7000:05:28,319 --> 00:05:32,399nobody talks about. Nobody talks aboutwhy you're working and you're putting money into7100:05:32,399 --> 00:05:38,480a four one K retirement plan orinvesting when things go down you have more7200:05:38,519 --> 00:05:43,360money coming off your paychecks or ifyour in all to reinvest the money at7300:05:43,399 --> 00:05:46,079lower prices. So if you likethe apple at one hundred and ninety and7400:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,560then it goes to one twenty,you can buy more because you have more7500:05:49,560 --> 00:05:55,800money coming in. When you're nothaving more coming in a more income and7600:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,720you're spending what you have all you'rethe only way you get to do that7700:05:58,879 --> 00:06:01,720is if you have care before themarkets do fall, And how do you7800:06:01,759 --> 00:06:05,480determine that. You have to determineit by the valuations of where you think7900:06:05,519 --> 00:06:10,120the markets are, and you haveto be okay if the markets go higher,8000:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,079even though you sold that, you'renot going to be all upset about8100:06:13,120 --> 00:06:17,120it, because eventually, at sometime you live along enough, the markets8200:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,319are coming down again, and thatmoney is sitting right now and the money8300:06:20,319 --> 00:06:25,680markets or the or the treasuries governmenttreasury is earning four and a half five8400:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,800five and a half percent, Thatmoney then can get put back to work.8500:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,839We weren't having that opportunity two threeyears, four years, five years8600:06:33,839 --> 00:06:38,319ago. You were lucky to begetting a half a percent in the money8700:06:38,319 --> 00:06:42,480market funds. At least now youcan make some money while you're sitting waiting8800:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,720and being cautious, and you reallycan have a balanced portfolio. So the8900:06:46,720 --> 00:06:53,240process we go through is finding outwhat you really have, what your intentions9000:06:53,240 --> 00:06:59,959are, gathering everything together and puttinga real financial plan together. And I'm9100:07:00,079 --> 00:07:02,680in a real one, not onejust to sell insurance, not one just9200:07:02,759 --> 00:07:08,079to go ahead and get assets orsell you a product. One that is9300:07:08,800 --> 00:07:13,560a living, breathing document that you'regonna have to go over and change over9400:07:13,639 --> 00:07:18,000time. This is a snapshet ofwhere you are today. Where you're on9500:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,160a year, two years, fiveyears, ten years is totally different.9600:07:23,319 --> 00:07:26,000And if you and if you're evenolder, you need a plan because what9700:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,480are you gonna do with the money? Are your beneficiaries right? Have you9800:07:29,519 --> 00:07:33,279set it up correctly? Where's themoney gonna go? Have you even talked9900:07:33,319 --> 00:07:39,920to the people that are going tobe getting your legacy? How do you10000:07:39,959 --> 00:07:44,519want that managed? There's so manythings that go into it, and they're10100:07:44,519 --> 00:07:50,879tough questions, but we ask themand people answer them because it's it's it's10200:07:50,920 --> 00:07:59,519private, it's confidential. But aplan is so important. I was looking10300:07:59,519 --> 00:08:05,000at some stuff some research the othertime. Only twenty nine percent of people10400:08:05,079 --> 00:08:11,519have a financial plan, twenty ninepercent and over sixty five percent say they10500:08:11,560 --> 00:08:16,879should have one. So there's morethan double the amount of people that say10600:08:16,879 --> 00:08:22,600they should have one that actually havea real plan. I know. Now10700:08:22,639 --> 00:08:28,600there's a lot of stuff on theinternet you can go put together and read10800:08:28,639 --> 00:08:33,399and do a financial plan, andsome people can do that, but I'm10900:08:33,399 --> 00:08:37,840not sure how you go and doa financial plan on the internet by plugging11000:08:37,879 --> 00:08:43,759in some numbers without talking to someoneor understanding it when really it's about building11100:08:43,759 --> 00:08:50,720a relationship. Otherwise it's just numbersthat frankly it don't really understand most people.11200:08:52,799 --> 00:08:58,720Financial literacy is the lowest amount ofliteracy we have in this country.11300:09:01,120 --> 00:09:07,720People don't understand it for good reason. Nobody teaches it on any level.11400:09:07,799 --> 00:09:11,320And then when you get money,you're trying to learn, and some people11500:09:11,360 --> 00:09:16,960do will learn very well, butthere's a lot to it. As a11600:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,399person that has money that has toinvest money, the number one thing you11700:09:22,440 --> 00:09:26,279have to do is look to findsomeone that you actually feel you can trust.11800:09:26,279 --> 00:09:28,440You interview them, you talk tothem, You get their philosophies.11900:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,200Are they on board, do youhave good energy? Do you feel like12000:09:31,240 --> 00:09:35,879they're honest and upfront? Are theywhat kind of fees are they charging?12100:09:35,919 --> 00:09:39,159Are they in the ballpark? Andrealm of being fair? Because that's all12200:09:39,159 --> 00:09:45,519you ask as an investor. ButI'm gonna tell you to ask one more12300:09:45,639 --> 00:09:52,559question. How do you mitigate risk? If they tell you you buy it12400:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,759annuity, you don't worry about itbecause you can't lose any money. That12500:09:56,879 --> 00:10:00,159might be that might be the rightanswer for you, but it might I'll12600:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,000be the right answer for you.Ask them how to mitigate risk. If12700:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,159they say it doesn't matter. Themarkets go down, they go up,12800:10:05,159 --> 00:10:15,600and you're gonna be fine. Guesswhat you will be if you have time.12900:10:16,759 --> 00:10:20,000But if it stresses you out becauseyou're down twenty at thirty percent or13000:10:20,039 --> 00:10:24,000even ten percent in today's in today'sworld, then that's not the right answer13100:10:24,000 --> 00:10:30,399for you, and that's not theright portfolio for you. Find a good13200:10:30,519 --> 00:10:31,679advisor, one that you trust.You can do it on your own,13300:10:31,679 --> 00:10:33,600But how are you going to doit on your own if you don't really13400:10:33,679 --> 00:10:37,720understand it. If you do,a lot of people manage your own money.13500:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,120It's great, they've learned, theylearned, they did it, they've13600:10:41,159 --> 00:10:45,639been putting it on. That's fantastic. Do it and it's good. But13700:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,840if you didn't and you don't havea plan. But even if you're doing13800:10:48,879 --> 00:10:52,120managing it yourself, you should stilltry to have a financial plan. Have13900:10:52,279 --> 00:10:54,720someone else look at it, checkit out, see if it's worth it14000:10:54,759 --> 00:11:01,200to you. That's the way youdo it and they will benefit you.14100:11:01,799 --> 00:11:07,879This comes from somebody that's been inthe business for forty years and never really14200:11:07,919 --> 00:11:11,360did financial plans until about four orfive years ago. And the reason I14300:11:11,399 --> 00:11:18,279didn't is because most of those financialplanning programs were set up by insurance companies14400:11:18,320 --> 00:11:24,559to sell insurance products, whether it'slife insurance, disability insurance, or risk14500:11:24,559 --> 00:11:31,080stuff and annuities high commissioned products.The programs now have all these things including14600:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,000as you're here, Dylan and Toddalways talk about what IF's, what ifs14700:11:35,399 --> 00:11:39,799meeting, what if this happens orthis happens, what will happen to my14800:11:39,240 --> 00:11:43,200portfolio? And I'll have them talka little bit later about the Monte Carlo14900:11:43,919 --> 00:11:50,320scenario. That means, I know, the first thing is saying hey Monty15000:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,720Carlo, you know, let's goto sell France or it's gambling of something.15100:11:54,000 --> 00:12:01,440What it does It actually goes throughall the different areas that can happen15200:12:01,320 --> 00:12:05,799and gives you the probability of successof your financial plan the way it is15300:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,120or the way you get it to. So what we do is we work15400:12:09,200 --> 00:12:16,600towards getting over a ninety percent effectiverate on your portfolio will absolutely work for15500:12:16,639 --> 00:12:20,080you if you did what the plantells you to do, that's pretty cool.15600:12:22,960 --> 00:12:28,399You still not have that ninety percentplus that the plan you put together15700:12:28,480 --> 00:12:35,720with us will be effective. Obviously, things change, and that's why it's15800:12:35,840 --> 00:12:41,320living, breathing document. You've gotto change it when things change. People15900:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,960have health problems, people move,people lose their jobs, people have weddings,16000:12:43,960 --> 00:12:48,159people have funerals, people want totravel, people spend more money.16100:12:48,200 --> 00:12:52,279It's so many different scenarios that gointo it, so you keep updating it.16200:12:52,360 --> 00:12:58,559You meet with your advices. Wework as a team. That means16300:12:58,559 --> 00:13:03,360we all know every client, whattheir needs are, what they're looking for,16400:13:03,519 --> 00:13:07,639how we need to manage the moneyand be able to do that,16500:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,360and that's what we do. Weget you set up and then we go16600:13:09,399 --> 00:13:13,519ahead and we actually manage the money. We don't point it off to somebody16700:13:13,519 --> 00:13:16,279else. So that way, ifyou want to go ahead and kind and16800:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,240say, hey, I'm a littlenervous here. I don't like what's going16900:13:20,279 --> 00:13:22,600on in Washington. I can't standBiden, or I can't stand this one17000:13:22,639 --> 00:13:26,799or that one. I don't likethe regulations. I can't handle the boom.17100:13:26,960 --> 00:13:31,000Next day, we can fix it. We can lower your risk tolerance17200:13:31,039 --> 00:13:37,159for you. We can mitigate morerisk. The key that I see out17300:13:37,200 --> 00:13:43,159there is the understanding of how tomitigate risk when the markets are too risky,17400:13:43,200 --> 00:13:48,519which I believe they are now,but still be enabled to make some17500:13:48,600 --> 00:13:56,120type of money above inflation when themarkets are moving higher. And by mitigating17600:13:56,240 --> 00:14:00,279risk, it doesn't mean all youjust sit there markets go down. Also17700:14:00,399 --> 00:14:05,159have to be aware of taking offthe risk controls and when do you go17800:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,279the other way and become aggressive againin the markets, And how do you17900:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,440do that? And what do youbuy and how do you do that?18000:14:09,559 --> 00:14:16,039Stuff? That's experience. That's everyonethat says, oh, it doesn't matter,18100:14:16,120 --> 00:14:20,320just allocate. It's not a badthing. I like experience because as18200:14:20,320 --> 00:14:24,840a retail person, we're not tryingto beat any institution and stuff. I'm18300:14:24,879 --> 00:14:30,960trying to do what's right for youwithin your realm, within your feelings of18400:14:31,159 --> 00:14:37,879risk and reward, and your abilityto handle the markets going down ten twenty18500:14:37,960 --> 00:14:45,960thirty percent and the markets going upand being able to participate. That sounds18600:14:46,000 --> 00:14:50,600good. You know what we dohere, and we do. We do18700:14:50,639 --> 00:14:52,879the financial plan consultations for you forfree or you have to do it's call18800:14:54,039 --> 00:15:00,480us. Obviously enough people like whatwe say and what our proposals and they18900:15:00,519 --> 00:15:03,240do business with us. But ifthey don't, they still get the plan.19000:15:03,399 --> 00:15:05,720We don't hide the plan from you. We don't say all now you19100:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,559have to go ahead and do businesswith us to be able to get to19200:15:09,600 --> 00:15:11,519plan. Oh oh, by theway, yes, the financial plans free,19300:15:11,559 --> 00:15:13,799but if you actually want it,you gotta pay for No, we19400:15:13,879 --> 00:15:18,159don't do any of that. Myword is my word, and that's all19500:15:18,200 --> 00:15:22,240you ever have in this life.We stick to it. The good news19600:15:22,320 --> 00:15:26,559is people like what we say anddo and trust us and build clients for19700:15:26,759 --> 00:15:31,159us a long long time. We'renot perfect, by no means that we19800:15:31,279 --> 00:15:33,960perfect. We make mistakes, welose money, we make money, we19900:15:33,440 --> 00:15:37,759do what we say we're going todo. We're not always right, but20000:15:37,879 --> 00:15:41,120we certainly are right more than weare wrong, and that's important. And20100:15:41,240 --> 00:15:45,320we know how to mitigate risk,and we know how to set up income20200:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,639portfolios. And we have different typeof models. We have models for people20300:15:48,039 --> 00:15:52,639that need to subsidize their income.We have models for people that want protection.20400:15:52,000 --> 00:15:58,440We have models for people that wantaggressive growth. You tell us what20500:15:58,519 --> 00:16:02,440you want and I'll show you whatwe do. And that, to me20600:16:03,639 --> 00:16:07,440is why we continue to grow ourfirm week after week, month after month,20700:16:07,559 --> 00:16:15,600year after year. So as wemove forward here, you see a20800:16:15,679 --> 00:16:21,039lot of things going on, andI think I think most of us are20900:16:21,080 --> 00:16:26,759shaking our head with our government andwhat's going on with politically, and we're21000:16:26,759 --> 00:16:30,679afraid of what's going to happen comingdown the road. Here we all know,21100:16:33,200 --> 00:16:37,919and it's so obvious that's happening.But I have to scratch my head21200:16:40,279 --> 00:16:47,159when people out there are defending JoeBiden's record right now, they're defending it.21300:16:48,279 --> 00:16:51,600People I know, friends that Iknow. They're defending that now.21400:16:51,679 --> 00:16:55,000They know not to getting a verydeep discussion with it with me because I'll21500:16:55,039 --> 00:16:57,440just blow their doors off, allright, But at the end of the21600:16:57,559 --> 00:17:03,079day, they think his track recordright now as president, it's fantastic,21700:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,680without looking at any other caveats.They even told me that they look at21800:17:07,720 --> 00:17:12,279the stock market, it's at alltime highs. They said, what world21900:17:12,319 --> 00:17:18,720are you living in? What world? First of all, we're not at22000:17:18,759 --> 00:17:23,039all time high so don't say thatwe have rallied in twenty one only to22100:17:23,079 --> 00:17:26,200fall in twenty two and we're notas high as we were in twenty two.22200:17:29,119 --> 00:17:33,440But inflation, they refuse to talkabout it. It's like a non22300:17:33,519 --> 00:17:41,000event to them. The struggles thatwe have non event. The business is22400:17:41,079 --> 00:17:47,640going out the credit card interest.The credit cards interest is off the chart.22500:17:47,759 --> 00:17:52,200But the credit card debt is overa trillion dollars. We've never had22600:17:52,279 --> 00:17:56,519that. Our country's debt is thatis over a trillion dollars is thirty three22700:17:56,599 --> 00:18:03,960trillion. They think they pulled outof Afghanistan and that we're not gonna war.22800:18:03,200 --> 00:18:07,680They forgot the debacle that we wentthrough. They forgot the debacle that22900:18:07,759 --> 00:18:11,680we have now in Ukraine. Andnow we find out all these things that23000:18:11,759 --> 00:18:15,519have gone on beforehand, with Parismaand everything else. If you don't think23100:18:15,559 --> 00:18:21,039there's some other stuff that's going onwith this whole war with Ukraine and Russia23200:18:22,240 --> 00:18:26,720and finding out that they got paidby these people, who's gonna there's benefits.23300:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,680You watch enough of these shows,and I'm not a big believer in23400:18:30,799 --> 00:18:33,279everything you see, but they haveto have a story from someplace, and23500:18:33,400 --> 00:18:37,960the stories of these corrupt contractors thatare in bed with the government to make23600:18:38,039 --> 00:18:48,160this money to make disturbances is notfar fetched. It's not farfetched. I'm23700:18:48,240 --> 00:18:52,480sure there's some Hollywood in all thesethings too, and a little exaggerations,23800:18:52,880 --> 00:19:00,440but the idea that we have thatwe stir the hornet's nest then we bring23900:19:00,519 --> 00:19:03,559in contractors who helped do this onthe side, so a doesn't pin on24000:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,839our government to be able to benefitby billions and billions of dollars. I24100:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,720don't think it's so far. Fetchwho's going to who is going to be24200:19:11,799 --> 00:19:19,599there building Ukraine? And then thenall the stuff with ev vehicles and everything.24300:19:19,680 --> 00:19:26,119You saw po Terra, the onethat they putting money towards another government24400:19:26,559 --> 00:19:30,839president that putting money towards it.Obama did the same thing with Solar and24500:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,079the went out of business. Andthen and then biding things. Oh yeah,24600:19:33,119 --> 00:19:41,039Potera, the electric car cover bankrupt, bankrupt, But that's Trump's full.24700:19:41,359 --> 00:19:51,400All these things they blame on Trumpare downgrade to our ratings for bonds.24800:19:52,759 --> 00:19:57,400They blame on Trump. Are youkidding? This downgrade came? And24900:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,400then they say, well, welook what we passed. We passed the25000:20:00,480 --> 00:20:06,359infrastructure, we passed this, wepassed that. Guys, you had control25100:20:06,400 --> 00:20:11,440of everything. I think it's horriblethat when the Republicans have control of everything,25200:20:11,480 --> 00:20:15,880we can't pass stuff, but youguys have that together. I'm over25300:20:15,200 --> 00:20:21,720that's fine, but he can't getanything through that's worth it, damn.25400:20:21,880 --> 00:20:25,319And every bill we have had somuch crap in it, it's not even25500:20:25,400 --> 00:20:33,559funny. This Secure Act two pointzero. Okay, you don't think this25600:20:33,720 --> 00:20:38,160is a a is a tax hike? Do you understand everyone that all has25700:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,599over one hundred and forty five thousanddollars salary starting next year? Right now,25800:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,000they're saying that you can't if you'reover fifty, you can't do the25900:20:47,079 --> 00:20:52,319catch up rule and put in seventyfive hundred dollars. More So, if26000:20:52,319 --> 00:20:56,279you're making money you want to putmore money away like we've been doing,26100:20:57,680 --> 00:21:02,559you can't do it so far.We'll see if they change that. So26200:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,559right now you can put out thirtythousand dollars in your four one K plan,26300:21:06,759 --> 00:21:08,519but next year you would only beable to put away twenty two five26400:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,319If you make over one hundred fortyfive thousand dollars, they say, put26500:21:12,359 --> 00:21:17,559the rest of the money into aroth four one K, And I'm trying26600:21:17,559 --> 00:21:19,839to find out if it's also aroth ira, because you know, if26700:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,279you make over a hundred forty fivethousand dollars right now, you can't put26800:21:22,279 --> 00:21:26,039it into a roth ira. Soare they going to change that rule?26900:21:26,119 --> 00:21:30,759Probably not, because they don't wantyou at the end of the day.27000:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,559That's seventy five hundred dollars with theright offs that you got that you didn't27100:21:33,559 --> 00:21:37,720have to pay on your salary.That now they're going to take taxes out.27200:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,920But I thought the limit was fourhundred thousand. I will not tax27300:21:42,920 --> 00:21:52,119to anybody that's making under four hundredthousand. Everybody over fifty making three hundred27400:21:52,200 --> 00:21:57,200three fifty one fifty two hundred,that's trying to save money. That's a27500:21:57,279 --> 00:22:02,279tax hike because you will not putthat money away. You won't get to27600:22:02,359 --> 00:22:07,799tax deduction. Think about that.Left and right. There's so many things27700:22:07,839 --> 00:22:12,440that they keep saying he's done great. I don't see him. The regulations27800:22:12,559 --> 00:22:19,480off the charts. They want tocontrol everything. It's not good. People27900:22:19,519 --> 00:22:26,960are getting upset and the end resultis not going to be pretty. And28000:22:26,319 --> 00:22:30,960this election coming up is going tobe very important, very important on so28100:22:32,079 --> 00:22:37,200many levels, and there's going tobe a lot of infighting. There's going28200:22:37,279 --> 00:22:40,759to be a lot of things goingback and forth. The Republican Party is28300:22:40,799 --> 00:22:42,319going to be split, They're goingto be yelling at each other, but28400:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,920hopefully they know how to get togetherat the end, because you know the28500:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,240Democrats will get together. At theend, they'll yell at each other,28600:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,400they'll tell each other how horrible theyare and bite again. But who's ever28700:22:52,480 --> 00:22:59,079there At the end, they willsupport. We need to do the same28800:22:59,160 --> 00:23:07,960thing we do. I'm concerned aboutour debt, concerned about regulations. I'm28900:23:07,039 --> 00:23:18,519concerned about our strength of a country. I am very concerned that unions go29000:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,759through the roof right now because theyknow that Biden is a union type guy.29100:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,200Everyone wants to go and strike andwants so much money. Everyone that29200:23:27,359 --> 00:23:32,960in the union that wants more money. That's inflationary. That is inflationary.29300:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,839We all want more money. Youknow how you get more money. You29400:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,480become indispensable to the people you're workingfor. You put in the time,29500:23:40,519 --> 00:23:42,240the effort, in the years todo that, or you go out on29600:23:42,319 --> 00:23:45,640your own. You take the riskand you do things that other people won't29700:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,200do and if it turns out great, If not, you're the one that's29800:23:48,240 --> 00:23:53,240holding the bag. You're the onethat loses. You're the one that gets29900:23:53,279 --> 00:23:57,880the tax right off of thirty percentof everything you lost. Big deal.30000:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,240You lose a million and you getto write off three hundred thousand. Big30100:24:02,359 --> 00:24:06,759deal. You have to be ableto make it back. Everything is backwards30200:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,759right now. Socially, there's somany things out of backwards. Economically,30300:24:10,880 --> 00:24:17,359they're off the charts backwards. Butsomehow the left just continues to support him30400:24:17,559 --> 00:24:21,960and actually do it with a smileand praise him, which drives me crazy.30500:24:22,079 --> 00:24:23,960We'll be back. This is theMoney Matty Show, and we all30600:24:25,319 --> 00:24:40,279appreciate you all listening. Say it'sall a name. Welcome back everybody to30700:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,680the Money Matty Show. We gotDave Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg, Todd Glick,30800:24:44,799 --> 00:24:48,920myself, Dean Greenberg here to bringyou whatever information we have from the30900:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,119week, and of course Dave hasa lot of stuff. So here we'll31000:24:52,160 --> 00:24:53,640let him start. Come up witha name. I think you said he31100:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,039came up with a name for yourEV. Well, you know we have31200:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,960we have an Evy segment every week, and you rabbit, I think that31300:25:02,160 --> 00:25:10,680that you have. You have vd EV EV elect vehicle vehicle every week,31400:25:11,200 --> 00:25:12,039and we're trying to come up witha little name. And I finally31500:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,720came up with it. But it'sgonna be called ev Garage. Right that31600:25:15,799 --> 00:25:18,119We're gonna actually was gonna go outin my garage and record the sound of31700:25:18,160 --> 00:25:22,319the garage girl opening. It's okay, that's a little much. That that's31800:25:22,319 --> 00:25:25,359a little much. That's what Iwas thinking of that gay, We're gonna31900:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,279blow your EV out of the water. That's probably not gonna happen. Yeah,32000:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,799well with what Well, first ofall, you've been down on it.32100:25:33,759 --> 00:25:37,039No, no, I'm not upor down. Let me clear,32200:25:37,279 --> 00:25:41,680because you don't want to come on. Man, I'm not an EV supporter32300:25:41,839 --> 00:25:45,880and I'm not anti EV. I'ma curious guy who's enjoying an experience.32400:25:47,000 --> 00:25:51,720That's all an experiment. It's anexperiment. We bring information later about it.32500:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,160We got it. We we dida homework this week on your ELD.32600:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,480You start the week right on Thursday, we got the CPI. I32700:25:57,559 --> 00:26:02,119mean really, there was no bigmark market movers in the first parts of32800:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,720the big news of the week tidesince Dean told me to go first.32900:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,160The big news of the week iswe broke our fifty three consecutive day hundred33000:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,920degree record streaks. That's just thebig news. Actually, that big news33100:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,799of the week was in Maui.Right, What a tragedy, What a33200:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,920tragedy that with the beautiful city andlike sixty or seventy people. Dad,33300:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,119are you I just can't even imaginebeing on Maui. Whenever you ever been33400:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,759in Mali? Oh yeah, okay, yeah, usually you don't leave like33500:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,000Tucson to California. Yeah, wedon't talk about it. Well, I33600:26:34,039 --> 00:26:37,200know you in South Dakota. Youwent a lot of places South Dakota.33700:26:37,559 --> 00:26:42,559I went in North Dakota. Exactly. Getting back to the markets, Yes,33800:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,079we had the CPI on Thursday.Did it came in below expectations?33900:26:48,200 --> 00:26:53,279It's still increased from last month.The market liked it opened up higher,34000:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,720but on Thursday we still ended uppretty much down, I mean pretty much34100:26:56,759 --> 00:27:00,279reversed. Course, that's because thewholesale just came in higher than expected.34200:27:00,319 --> 00:27:03,079Well, now we ended up onThursday atas time. By Thursday we had34300:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,720opened up four hundred and fifty points. And I said to Dean, this34400:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,960is like coming back from vacation andthinking you gain ten pounds. You get34500:27:11,000 --> 00:27:15,079on the scale and you only gainfive pounds. You're still five pounds heavy34600:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,240year. You still have work todo. So it fus about my vacation34700:27:19,839 --> 00:27:25,039that the CPI wasn't as bad assome had feared. It was still an34800:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,640uptick and it was the first uptickin a year. Yeah, it's been34900:27:27,680 --> 00:27:33,640ticking steadily lower for a year.It was primarily driven by housing and rents,35000:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,359shelter cost. Shelter cost which oneyou're talking about shelter cost the CPI35100:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,759CPI right, CPI was driven byshelter costs. But did you hear what35200:27:41,839 --> 00:27:48,839the PPI reason was higher than expectit? Now'll go ahead, financial services?35300:27:48,480 --> 00:27:52,799Yes, I didn't. It wasweird financial service. Of course,35400:27:52,119 --> 00:27:57,079if everyone's making money, the feeswill go higher because it's based on the35500:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,920amount of the money people have onthe mounting. Yeah, when it goes35600:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,000down, then why didn't because isthat the reason was going down? That's35700:28:04,039 --> 00:28:07,799what they're using now, Dave.They come out with stuff, they talk35800:28:07,839 --> 00:28:11,240about stuff that makes no sense.Is it not the interest that they have35900:28:11,359 --> 00:28:15,640to pay with the financial services companyincreasing? That's not what they were talking36000:28:15,839 --> 00:28:21,799They're talking about the the fees beinghired. But I know what if the36100:28:21,880 --> 00:28:26,839financial services company that the producers useas in strips go up, they cost36200:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,519more. That's not what they weretalking about. Okay, I've got a36300:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,279David Stephen Leesman was like, Idon't get this. Yeah, I got36400:28:33,359 --> 00:28:37,480to look into this more. Itmakes no sense where we've all these years36500:28:37,519 --> 00:28:40,359instead have been doing this. I'venever heard this, But then why don't36600:28:40,359 --> 00:28:41,799we talk about it when the PPInumbers coming down? He said, not36700:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,359one time? Right? Ever,Ever, I thought it was kind of36800:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,559interesting. I've looked it into thenumbers. Is so what the big gainers36900:28:48,599 --> 00:28:52,599are. Remember July of last yearwe were at eight point five, So37000:28:52,799 --> 00:28:56,039three point two is better than eightpoint five for sure. Uh, year37100:28:56,119 --> 00:28:59,599over your DNUS is year over year. It's important to remember that the biggest37200:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,319gains year over year motor vehicle insuranceup seventeen point eight percent. And we37300:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,000know why. Anthony Figureau was onand he said, because the cost of37400:29:07,079 --> 00:29:11,799reparing all these vehicles, with inflationhaving run away, it is very high.37500:29:12,720 --> 00:29:17,000So the surance premiums, insurance preamsare high. Second one I thought37600:29:17,079 --> 00:29:22,039was interesting. Tax preparation and accountingup fourteen percent from a year ago.37700:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,960Yeah. Why isn't that weird?Yeah? Because rent went up tells it.37800:29:26,519 --> 00:29:30,200They're coming up with stuff that Idon't understand. How they get into37900:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,799the financial Well, we have tocome up with reasons. So let's go38000:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,000into the financial services. Business.It shouldn't matter. I don't know.38100:29:36,039 --> 00:29:40,359How about Number three was the foodfrom vending machines at fourteen percent? Okay,38200:29:40,359 --> 00:29:42,480I can understand that. On theon the decliners. Health insurance is38300:29:42,559 --> 00:29:48,319twenty nine point five percent below ayear ago. Oh really twenty nine I38400:29:48,359 --> 00:29:52,960don't either. Well, I don'tpay health costs. Yeah, gas hand38500:29:53,039 --> 00:29:57,759to go down. Gasoline's twenty percentbelow last year, higher than it was38600:29:57,839 --> 00:30:00,680a month ago, but lower andit was a year ago. NFL is38700:30:00,720 --> 00:30:07,039dean down eighteen point six percent froma year ago. Kind of hard to38800:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,240just see that. It seems likeit's cost a fortune to fly anywhere.38900:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,519Yeah, it looks like the rentalprices didn't increase two months, but we39000:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,640did have the housing prices continue toincrease. As a year over year,39100:30:19,160 --> 00:30:25,799new listing of homes for sale fellsixteen sixteen point five percent, So continue39200:30:25,799 --> 00:30:29,599to beat on that drum. There'sjust no inventory leading to that supply and39300:30:29,799 --> 00:30:33,200demand dynamic of keeping the house priceshigh, which explains why shelter cost would39400:30:33,200 --> 00:30:40,480have would have been elevated. Exactly. We got to hit on Tuesday,39500:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,599I believe it was when Moody's cameout and downgraded to credit rating on a39600:30:42,640 --> 00:30:48,039few banks, put a few otherson watch higher interest rates, dean straining39700:30:48,079 --> 00:30:51,000their balance sheets. As you know. The other thing that got hit with39800:30:51,079 --> 00:30:56,640the chip stocks in a video AMDbecause of Biden a stroke of the pen.39900:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,480I'm not so sure. It's nota good idea. I don't know40000:31:00,559 --> 00:31:03,759why. It's a one sided thing, you know what I'm saying. But40100:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,480basically it's limiting what they can sellto to China because they don't want all40200:31:07,559 --> 00:31:10,799chips being used and they won't yeh. But did you see I mean that40300:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,920was Tuesday and or earlier in theweekend. Then later in the weekend video40400:31:12,920 --> 00:31:18,400announced that there's five billion dollars worththe chips were bought by China tech giants40500:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,519like Ali, Baba, bay Do, ten Cent by Dance, all of40600:31:21,559 --> 00:31:25,240them, and they're trying to buyat least one hundred thousand chips this year.40700:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,680It's that it's not their best one, it's a eight hundred. But40800:31:27,839 --> 00:31:30,759they do like they don't want himusing the new one. I think it's40900:31:30,799 --> 00:31:33,039not Yeah, the h they're notletting him use the H one h one41000:31:33,160 --> 00:31:37,200hundred one No, but this isthey want this for AI. But they're41100:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,039not getting and Video's newest one,and then the one that they haven't even41200:31:40,119 --> 00:31:42,319they just announced a new one,which was interesting. We're talking about that,41300:31:42,680 --> 00:31:47,119and Video dropped about four percent theday they announced that they're coming out41400:31:47,119 --> 00:31:51,119with a new chip to make AIeven more powerful. It dropped. They41500:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,039haven't started shipping it or selling oranything. They just announced it. It41600:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,480dropped about four percent that day.And then the day after, five billion41700:31:56,519 --> 00:32:00,559dollars worth of the older chip isgetting shipped over to China to those big41800:32:00,599 --> 00:32:05,920tech companies, right, and that'swhat what they they Biden prohibited them selling41900:32:05,960 --> 00:32:07,960them the best chip, right,yeah, and so that you get the42000:32:08,359 --> 00:32:13,400Class B and now they're prohibiting that. So they must be hurriling to try42100:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,079to get that before he shuts thaton. And it's interesting to stock about42200:32:15,359 --> 00:32:20,640the year, so they must bethat must go into effect. And the42300:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,279week I was just saying, theywant one hundred thousand and each by the42400:32:22,359 --> 00:32:25,400end of the year. Yeah,what's going Then a move by Biden was42500:32:25,480 --> 00:32:30,000to try to because then Video cameup with this ohokay, Plan B right,42600:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,000yeah, which is a less powerfulchip but still a good chip.42700:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,119Still put them behind the app allthough. Yeah, yeah, now,42800:32:35,119 --> 00:32:37,079and now he wants to get awayto do away with that, which is42900:32:37,559 --> 00:32:39,440I'm with you, Dean, I'mI think it's probably not a terrible idea.43000:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,880Yeah, I agree with that one. But what's good? So everyone's43100:32:43,880 --> 00:32:45,920like trying to sell off in thevideo someplace in here. The video is43200:32:45,920 --> 00:32:50,680going to stop going down. Itmight go down to three fifty to four43300:32:50,759 --> 00:32:52,680hundred, right, but everyone thinksthey can pick the bottom, pick the43400:32:52,720 --> 00:32:57,160top. You own no video rightnow for the reasons you own it.43500:32:58,039 --> 00:33:02,319Nothing's changed. They still have theAI chip that everybody needs. They'll charge43600:33:02,359 --> 00:33:06,680more for that chip if they can'tsell it to other places. Plus they43700:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,319have this other chip that's even biggerand better, So they're already replacing the43800:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,200chips that they have to the companiesthat need them. Yeah, and what43900:33:13,279 --> 00:33:16,720that new chip is gonna do ishelp companies reduce their costs with their all44000:33:16,759 --> 00:33:21,039their AI ambitions because of how powerfulit is. They'll have to just pretty44100:33:21,079 --> 00:33:22,759much by the one or something likethat. It's a lot less, soill44200:33:22,759 --> 00:33:29,000help them reduce the cost. Butthis is how I think, and I44300:33:29,079 --> 00:33:32,240don't you know who knows. Obviouslythere's risking everything, but somewhere between three44400:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,640fifty and four hundred. If youdon't own it, you try to look44500:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,759though, because I think what willhappen has come down and as it gets44600:33:37,799 --> 00:33:43,720closer to a turning periods, ifit's it's gonna stock going up again because44700:33:43,759 --> 00:33:46,359their earnings are probably gonna blow awayestimates again. I mean, look,44800:33:46,440 --> 00:33:50,519it went down ten percent last week. If you're looking for an opportunity to44900:33:50,720 --> 00:33:52,359get feetwell within video, that's thetime to looked at it. And it45000:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,960could go back down to two hundred. It could easily, But that's if45100:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,640you believe in the stock, youbelieve in the future that they're also a45200:33:58,759 --> 00:34:01,200decade ahead with their AI in thechips. Then you keep buying it.45300:34:01,279 --> 00:34:05,359As it goes down, you justkeep lowering your unit costs until it starts45400:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,159taking off. The same way wewere talking about it a year ago when45500:34:07,239 --> 00:34:09,880it went all the way down fromto one oh eight from three hundred.45600:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,880The same idea. It's a volatileholding though, I mean, it's the45700:34:13,960 --> 00:34:19,079four hundred stock that moves ten fifteentwenty dollars a days ago two hundred dollars45800:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,320down, right, But you makeyou make that as part of whatever allocation45900:34:22,360 --> 00:34:23,960you want, right okay, Andthen it goes up. You take some46000:34:24,079 --> 00:34:27,920off the table, but you stillhold something that's a core position. Right46100:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,280now. Yeah, you don't haveto buy one hundred shares. We talked46200:34:30,280 --> 00:34:31,599about all the time. If youwant, you could. If you want46300:34:31,639 --> 00:34:36,079a video to be three percent ofyour entire portfolio, it runs up the46400:34:36,119 --> 00:34:37,239four and fifty dollars a share,all of a sudden, it's six percent46500:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,039of your portfolio. Sell the threepercent of profits, and then you're back46600:34:40,079 --> 00:34:43,639to where you started. But youhave three percent of locked in profits.46700:34:44,239 --> 00:34:50,079Right absolutely, absolutely. The interestrates edged up this past week, which46800:34:50,119 --> 00:34:54,760it took gold down and gold downtwenty six bucks golds ten percent lower since46900:34:54,840 --> 00:34:59,840May, just since May. Sothey're on TV howking the heck out of47000:34:59,840 --> 00:35:04,800it? And that always tells youwhenever you hear the majority of the commercials47100:35:04,920 --> 00:35:09,159talking about putting their money in goldand and and and being and I'm surprised,47200:35:09,199 --> 00:35:15,440you know how all these uh thesefamous people we're advertising pitcoin and how47300:35:15,480 --> 00:35:19,079they got in trouble? How didthese guys want to go through that with47400:35:19,199 --> 00:35:22,599gold? Now? Okay, becausethey're they're selling stuff, they're promoting something47500:35:22,880 --> 00:35:28,239without a license seems like it,right, We can't do that. We47600:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,400need licenses. We just even talkingthis radio show the way we talk and47700:35:31,719 --> 00:35:37,639be open and and give our opinions, it suppos have licenses. We've got47800:35:37,679 --> 00:35:39,599seven tenths of a percent of spreadon the ten year and two year,47900:35:39,679 --> 00:35:43,920Todd, which is narrowing a littlebit. It is. I don't know48000:35:44,039 --> 00:35:46,840that it gets back to the normalyield spread anytime soon. That long end48100:35:46,960 --> 00:35:51,360keeps deepening. All right, you'lllisten to the money amount of show.48200:35:51,440 --> 00:35:58,159We'll be right back with another segmentto hopefully make you happy. Say it's48300:35:58,199 --> 00:36:07,280all a bab Welcome back, everybody. This is the money about the show.48400:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,320We got everybody here today, Dave, Dylan, Todd, and myself.48500:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,559During the monologue, I told youwe were going to talk about what48600:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,760the Monte Carlo. It really isn'tme, and so I'm going to turn48700:36:16,800 --> 00:36:22,679it over to Dylan and Todd,who work as off basically all our financial48800:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,440plans. They put him together andget to know everybody. Yeah, and48900:36:25,519 --> 00:36:30,239Todd go into the details about whatthe Monty Carlo is, but the overview49000:36:30,360 --> 00:36:34,079is that it is part of thefinancial plan in the sense that it gives49100:36:34,159 --> 00:36:37,199us an idea of their probability ofsuccess with everything that we put into the49200:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,880beginning of the financial plan, yourexpenses, your social security, your current49300:36:40,920 --> 00:36:45,360income, your expected expenses during retirement, your finance, your finances, your49400:36:45,400 --> 00:36:50,280investments, and he houses, anyrental properties. All of that gets brought49500:36:50,320 --> 00:36:55,000into one picture. And then that'swhat comes to the Monty Carlos simulation,49600:36:55,079 --> 00:37:00,079which Todd, Yeah, it's reallyfascinating for myself, I'm a geek it49700:37:00,159 --> 00:37:04,199comes to this stuff because it reallycomes down to quantifying risk. It's a49800:37:04,360 --> 00:37:09,599very hard thing for any business,individual organization to quantify how risky their portfolio49900:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,400is because there's so many ways todo it. One way to do it50000:37:13,559 --> 00:37:17,239is to use a Monty Carlos simulation. And this is actually how gambling organizations50100:37:17,400 --> 00:37:22,000use to find exactly how they're profitableor not on a certain game. Every50200:37:22,199 --> 00:37:28,280game has a certain set of assumptionsand possibilities of return based on different payouts,50300:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,639and then they can run that throughthe Monty car simulation and using a50400:37:31,320 --> 00:37:36,159trial, say ten thousand different trials, they'll know exactly what's their expected profit.50500:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,639As a business. You can dothat same thing for your financial plan.50600:37:39,159 --> 00:37:43,639Can we have all the assumptions yoursocial security, your pensions, how50700:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,239much you're putting away into the forwardk, even down to the way you're50800:37:46,280 --> 00:37:51,840allocated in your investment accounts. Basedon all tho those assumptions, you're going50900:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,159to get a certain type of investmentreturn. Obviously, if you're more conservative,51000:37:54,159 --> 00:37:58,280you're gonna have a lower return lessstandard deviation, meaning you're gonna have51100:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,639less volatility. If you have moreaggressive, you're gonna have a lot more51200:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,760volatility, but you should have alsoa higher rate of return in the long51300:38:04,880 --> 00:38:09,000run. All of these assumptions willdictate how the Monty Carlo simulation comes out.51400:38:09,320 --> 00:38:13,400And what it does is it takesa thousand different trials of your financial51500:38:13,480 --> 00:38:17,679plan against a thousand different return possibilities. Obviously, most financial plans in the51600:38:17,719 --> 00:38:22,840past have used things like a standardrate of return of seven percent every single51700:38:22,920 --> 00:38:27,199year. We know that's not realistic. It's never gonna happen. You're gonna51800:38:27,199 --> 00:38:30,280have down years, you're gonna haveup years. So the Monty Carlo simulation51900:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,440allows us to see those up anddown years, and we can actually take52000:38:32,480 --> 00:38:37,039one of the worst case trials.There's really good ones, and there's really52100:38:37,079 --> 00:38:38,199bad ones. We'll take one ofthe worst case and we'll show that to52200:38:38,320 --> 00:38:43,039you and show you how your planis able to survive or not based on52300:38:43,119 --> 00:38:45,559the worst case scenarios. And thenit can go even one step further.52400:38:45,920 --> 00:38:51,400If we have things like tax planningstrategies, if we have different strategies using52500:38:51,440 --> 00:38:55,760annuities or investments for income, wecan show what's the probability of success for52600:38:55,880 --> 00:39:00,760using this strategy compared to another.What's the probability of success compared to using52700:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,440this tax strategy. Does it actuallyhelp us or hurt us in the long52800:39:04,559 --> 00:39:07,920run. There's so many strategies outthere, and it's hard to know which52900:39:07,920 --> 00:39:09,719one is right for you until youactually put a number behind it, you53000:39:09,760 --> 00:39:14,679actually put a plan behind it.And that's what really the value that we've53100:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,760been seeing clients obtained from the financialplanning meeting is the peace of mind of53200:39:17,880 --> 00:39:22,639knowing there's a lot smarter software doingthe hard work for them and they can53300:39:22,840 --> 00:39:28,199sleep nice. You know, theycan sleep peacefully at night knowing that at53400:39:28,199 --> 00:39:30,679the end of the day, it'snot just some number they're picking, putting53500:39:30,760 --> 00:39:34,679up in their head or creating somegeneric Excel sheet. It's a true in53600:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,880depth to the granular detail financial plan. And the reason we like to use53700:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,800one of the worst case scenarios isbecause if your plan works from one of53800:39:40,840 --> 00:39:45,800the worst times, then the mostlikely it will work out in the long53900:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,800run and in reality, because younever know what's going to happen when you54000:39:47,880 --> 00:39:52,920retire. If you decided to retireright before the dot com bubble, then54100:39:52,920 --> 00:39:54,280all of a sudden you had twonegative years in a row, big negative54200:39:54,360 --> 00:39:58,519years in a row that could haveaffected your plan immensely. Well, if54300:39:58,559 --> 00:40:00,280you can work out in the longrun, it's nice to be able to54400:40:00,320 --> 00:40:04,039see that. It gives you alittle peace of mind. Dean and I54500:40:04,079 --> 00:40:07,880have been doing this for forty yearsand we're both just blown away at the54600:40:07,119 --> 00:40:14,599number of people that are taking advantageof this free offer. If you will,54700:40:14,679 --> 00:40:17,719this free financial plan, Uh,just NonStop and you know, give54800:40:17,800 --> 00:40:22,280us a call five two zero fivefour four four nine o nine. Talked54900:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,119to Todd, talked to Dylan,and set something up. Come on in55000:40:25,119 --> 00:40:30,960and do it. There's no downsidethere obligation and it's awful popular. Yeah,55100:40:30,960 --> 00:40:32,320I like my dad was saying,it's not something that we're gonna hold55200:40:32,320 --> 00:40:35,800hostage. If you don't do businesswith us, we will give you the55300:40:35,840 --> 00:40:37,360financial plan right after we're done.We'll email it to and it's yours to55400:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,880keep, and we can update itat any time too. Just different scenarios55500:40:40,920 --> 00:40:45,280come up, and we're definitely hereto help. Right, We've helped many55600:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,199people that we've never actually did businesswith, but we showed them in the55700:40:47,280 --> 00:40:51,039right directions. You want a funfact, let's hear it. Of course55800:40:51,320 --> 00:40:55,639this is this one's surprised me.McDonald's right, sells more chicken than beef.55900:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,599I had no idea. That blowsme. The chicken nuggets, I56000:41:00,679 --> 00:41:07,599guess the chicken nuggets, which donaldsells more chicken than than beef. They're56100:41:07,639 --> 00:41:12,360the number two of cellar of Chickenin the in the world, behind Kentucky56200:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,639Fried Chicken interest more chicken than beef. I I thought I had to check56300:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,599it through or four different places.I couldn't believe that was true, but56400:41:19,679 --> 00:41:21,760they do. Never would have thoughtthat, but it does make sense.56500:41:22,159 --> 00:41:27,079You know that it was illegal topump your own gas in Oregon until last56600:41:27,119 --> 00:41:30,880week. Last week? Yeah,what do you mean I can't pump your56700:41:30,920 --> 00:41:36,159own gas? Yeah, for seventyseven years, you have been unable to56800:41:36,199 --> 00:41:38,840pump your own gas in Oregon.That's how Mexico is. You can't do56900:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,199in Mexico. They have people outthere and they're supposed to do it for57000:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,039it's a combination of two things,according to Oregon. But they did change57100:41:45,039 --> 00:41:50,559it last week, leaving only NewJersey. New Jersey still will not allow57200:41:50,599 --> 00:41:52,920you to pump your own gas.That's the only state you're talking about.57300:41:52,960 --> 00:41:54,840I pump gas in New Jersey.You cannot pump your own gas in the57400:41:54,880 --> 00:41:59,039state of New Jersey. It's illegal. It's the only state work it's illegal.57500:41:59,400 --> 00:42:01,920I don't know, Dave, Okay, I don't know. He's somebody57600:42:01,960 --> 00:42:07,480from New Jersey calls the office andwhen did that come about? Because I57700:42:07,800 --> 00:42:12,159remember that it's always been illegal inNew Jersey always. It's the last state,57800:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,639because you've been there how many times? It's the last it's in the57900:42:15,719 --> 00:42:19,039legislation. I'm just on just likeyou know, I don't have to go58000:42:19,159 --> 00:42:22,360somewhere. Didn't know what the factsare, the the and it's it's it's58100:42:22,400 --> 00:42:27,360the last state. That uh.The article I was reading about Oregon voting58200:42:27,639 --> 00:42:32,360and leaving only New Jersey as theonly state where gas and it was a58300:42:32,599 --> 00:42:37,199there was two thought from New Jersey. I don't remember anyone pumping my gas.58400:42:37,800 --> 00:42:42,599Well, I think that's too muchinformation to be honestly. My friends,58500:42:42,679 --> 00:42:44,559my friend that lives there, soI'm gonna see what he's it's the58600:42:44,639 --> 00:42:49,199g rated show. Stop that goingfor the week, though, I don't58700:42:49,199 --> 00:42:51,199know if we talked about it youwere coming up to the end of the58800:42:51,280 --> 00:42:52,639first hour. The Dow was upfor point six percent for the week.58900:42:53,039 --> 00:42:55,599The S ANDP was down point threepercent, and the NASDAC was down two59000:42:55,639 --> 00:42:59,519percent, hit big by a lotof the big tech companies like Nvidia.59100:43:00,039 --> 00:43:02,440The small cap Russell two thousand wasdown one point six percent, and then59200:43:02,440 --> 00:43:06,719the RSP, which is the equalweight at SMP five hundred, was flat,59300:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,280completely flat for the week. Isn'tthat amazing? I haven't seen that59400:43:09,320 --> 00:43:15,400in a while. Did you seeTabula RASI the last week? Tabular rassa59500:43:15,559 --> 00:43:19,519is is Uh, there's a lotof University of Arizona's involved with them.59600:43:20,000 --> 00:43:24,440Uh. It's a I guess ahealthcare company, right, this will talk59700:43:24,480 --> 00:43:30,840about a ride. Uh. Thisstock seven years of the public company has59800:43:30,880 --> 00:43:35,559started at fifteen bucks. It ralliedup to ninety one dollars and then it59900:43:35,679 --> 00:43:38,760plunged to two dollars about a yearago. On Monday, they were taken60000:43:38,800 --> 00:43:45,039over by Nautic Partner's private equity tenand a half bucks to share. There's60100:43:45,079 --> 00:43:50,000a lot of there's a lot oftwosonans who have been involved in Tabula rasa60200:43:50,159 --> 00:43:52,840along the way, and uh,several of our clients have been involved with60300:43:52,920 --> 00:43:58,320Tabula rasa. Uh. Tesla.Big news on Tesla this past week with60400:43:58,440 --> 00:44:04,599their CFO leaving. That's right,he's stepping down effective immediately. He's been60500:44:04,679 --> 00:44:09,039with Tesla since twenty ten. He'sbeen the CFO since twenty nineteen. The60600:44:09,119 --> 00:44:14,119good news is and whenever a CFOleaves, it always creates a little bit60700:44:14,159 --> 00:44:15,400of concern. You know, what, does he know? What's he been60800:44:15,480 --> 00:44:19,559doing? Uh, you know,because he's a pretty powerful person. Maybe60900:44:19,599 --> 00:44:22,360it's just incompetent. Well, he'sgonna still it looks the other side.61000:44:22,400 --> 00:44:27,079It's always the company. Everyone looksat it. That's true, Ding,61100:44:27,199 --> 00:44:29,599That's absolutely true. Whenever a CFOleaves, though, as you know,61200:44:30,360 --> 00:44:34,800it generally creates a little bit ofconcern with the stock. He's gonna stay61300:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,599though until the end of the yearto help with the transition. So obviously61400:44:37,639 --> 00:44:43,079he's not getting fired. He's probablyhas enough one hundred million dollars accounts to61500:44:43,639 --> 00:44:46,159handle things. Maybe he's got anotheranother scenario that he's looking at and says,61600:44:46,159 --> 00:44:50,639hey, you know it's this willbe exciting. I'm tired of doing61700:44:50,679 --> 00:44:52,480it. A lot of it seemslike a lot of executives from big companies61800:44:52,559 --> 00:44:55,199like that in amazonic Google, andI'll leave to go do more of the61900:44:55,239 --> 00:45:00,079startup stuff. Yeah, the right, because it's smaller, they can do62000:45:00,199 --> 00:45:01,920it. They were in control.They can. If they're gonna make money,62100:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,280they've already made money. But theycan make a big, big hit62200:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,480and that's why they do it.Yeah, they Warren buffet over the weekend.62300:45:08,599 --> 00:45:14,039Last weekend, company stock rally toan all time high after they reported62400:45:14,159 --> 00:45:19,599a second quarter earnings were better thanexpected. Cash Hart has grown to one62500:45:19,679 --> 00:45:27,519hundred and fifty billion dollars billion dollarsand Occidental Petroleum is one of his biggest62600:45:27,599 --> 00:45:32,360positions. Has done absolutely nothing nothing. Earnings were driven by a seventy four62700:45:32,400 --> 00:45:37,360percent increase in insurance earnings and thenwhat do we say was the number one62800:45:38,000 --> 00:45:45,480increase in prices year over year?Insurance insurance. The insurance are the higher62900:45:45,559 --> 00:45:51,000premiums and lower claims. THO wasthe insurance premiums that drove Warren Buffets the63000:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,360company to a new all time high. Higher interest rates are helping them out.63100:45:53,960 --> 00:45:59,920Because you've got one hundred and fiftybillion dollars that's now earning five percent63200:46:00,119 --> 00:46:04,119entins did a zero. That'll makea little bit of a difference on your63300:46:04,159 --> 00:46:07,639balance sheet, don't you know.It's not the one point five billion dollars63400:46:07,800 --> 00:46:13,280that the Florida lottery person won.What would you do with one point five63500:46:13,480 --> 00:46:17,480billion dollars? One point five billion, Well, okay, so you're only63600:46:17,519 --> 00:46:21,760going to get a billion, you'reonly gonna get a billion, Create an63700:46:21,800 --> 00:46:25,800indumbment on off the billion dollars.I would do good things with it.63800:46:27,199 --> 00:46:30,760Unfortunately, it seems like the peoplethat get it don't know what to do63900:46:30,880 --> 00:46:36,719with it. They get just smotheredby all these people that think they can64000:46:36,760 --> 00:46:38,719tell them what to do, andthey usually end up losing everything they have.64100:46:39,039 --> 00:46:43,280Yeah, I had one earlier inmy career. I had an auto64200:46:43,360 --> 00:46:46,840mechanic that one one nine million,which back then was a big, big64300:46:47,000 --> 00:46:52,000number twenty five years ago, andyou know his wife was a hairdresser and64400:46:52,039 --> 00:46:54,679he was a mechanic. First thingthey do is buy a corvette. Second64500:46:54,760 --> 00:46:59,320second thing they did was buy anRV. They started traveling around the country64600:46:59,440 --> 00:47:01,480enjoying a lite and came to yourtwo Cian Arizona. Though, I'm going64700:47:01,519 --> 00:47:07,280to live here, and so theysettled, settled here and h mostly real64800:47:07,400 --> 00:47:12,280estate was what they what they werecomfortable with, what they understood. Ups64900:47:12,440 --> 00:47:15,960not participating in this year's rally Openlower on Tuesday, disappointing quarter lower guidance.65000:47:16,360 --> 00:47:21,800Often Deane Ups is seen as aneconomic barometer. They also had that65100:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,880economic dispute with their labor. They'realso increasing their benefits and everything their whole65200:47:25,880 --> 00:47:29,800package. They're increasing it from anaverage one hundred forty five thousand dollars to65300:47:29,800 --> 00:47:31,559one hundred and seventy five thousand dollarsper comploy. All right, we'll coming65400:47:31,639 --> 00:47:34,920up to the top of the hour. We'll be back to bring you the65500:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,199money amount of show. But bythe way, Dave, I wanted a65600:47:37,239 --> 00:47:39,280billion and a half, I'd buya professional football team. I bet you65700:47:39,360 --> 00:47:43,639would, right back. This isthe moneybout of the show. Appreciate your65800:47:43,679 --> 00:47:52,000living Living, watch listening and Levyand Levy. Welcome back everybody. It's65900:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,000the Money Matter Show, Second Hour. I appreciate your listening. Matter.66000:47:54,039 --> 00:47:58,920You can listen on podcasts. Youcan listen by going to our radio show66100:47:59,280 --> 00:48:02,880a website and just click on anyof the of the shows that we have66200:48:04,079 --> 00:48:09,880on there. And we also onTV and Saturdays. We have a different66300:48:09,960 --> 00:48:15,320format, but we do some ofthose lie on the K and scls,66400:48:15,519 --> 00:48:17,599So a lot of different ways tolisten to us. And if you miss66500:48:17,639 --> 00:48:22,639it, you just go to websiteand they're all on there. Yeah,66600:48:22,719 --> 00:48:25,400So for those of you just turntuning in to the Second Hour, the66700:48:25,519 --> 00:48:29,480DAW was up point six percent forthe week. Last week, the SMP66800:48:29,679 --> 00:48:32,599five hundred was down point three percent, the NAVSDAC was down two percent,66900:48:34,159 --> 00:48:36,800and the Russell two thousand, whichis a small cap was down one point67000:48:36,840 --> 00:48:40,079six percent. And then the RSPwhich is the SMP five hundred equal weighted,67100:48:40,559 --> 00:48:44,760was completely flat point zero zero.Yeah, the eyes were all on67200:48:44,840 --> 00:48:49,039That inflation number came out on Thursday, came in a below expectation, still67300:48:49,119 --> 00:48:52,719increased from the last month reading.The interesting thing though, is if you67400:48:53,000 --> 00:48:58,400x out shelter right, if youlook at CPI quarter over quarter, and67500:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,920you take shelter away, inflation isbasically gone. So right now, a67600:49:02,039 --> 00:49:06,519lot of the inflation is being ledby those shelter costs. I'll tell you67700:49:06,559 --> 00:49:07,920it doesn't feel like it out inthe real world, and I'm sure our67800:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,719listeners feel the same way. Everytime I go to the grocery store,67900:49:10,719 --> 00:49:14,760it seems like it's more. AndI just got a deal that the Hulu68000:49:14,880 --> 00:49:17,519subscription is going up and Disney Plusis gonna go up, and just had68100:49:17,519 --> 00:49:22,920a lot of stuff going Panda Pandora, Pandora's going up, and like,68200:49:23,239 --> 00:49:25,760are you kidding me? We allyeah, all streaming service. I mean68300:49:25,960 --> 00:49:30,719a second job to pay for mystreaming. When Disney Plus first came out68400:49:30,719 --> 00:49:34,079a couple of years ago, itwas six dollars. Now it's thirteen ninety68500:49:34,159 --> 00:49:37,760nine. By the way, theyeven with the Dow out performing this past68600:49:37,840 --> 00:49:42,559week. Year to date, theDow is up six SMP five hundred,68700:49:42,639 --> 00:49:46,760up sixteen. Yeah still and againthat's the magnificence seven because the nasdac's up68800:49:46,800 --> 00:49:50,679thirty. And to echo that point, I mean, if you look at68900:49:50,760 --> 00:49:52,239value stocks. I don't know ifyou haven't with you, Dave, but69000:49:52,360 --> 00:49:58,559many times we've seen throughout the year, that value is just underperforming vastly.69100:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,960If you're a conservative investor, andlet's say you want blue ship dividend paying69200:50:02,039 --> 00:50:07,519stocks, value stocks. Let's sayyou've got fifty percent of your portfolio there,69300:50:07,760 --> 00:50:12,480and you've got fifty percent of yourportfolio and treasuries. The treasuries are69400:50:12,519 --> 00:50:15,960paying around five percent, So halfwaythrough the year you made two and a69500:50:15,000 --> 00:50:20,320half, but interest rates have edgeda little higher, so you probably have69600:50:20,400 --> 00:50:23,199only netted one and a half atthis point, and your value stocks are69700:50:23,639 --> 00:50:30,480are down, so you could honestlybe flat on the year, have made69800:50:30,679 --> 00:50:35,360zero in an environment where the Nasdaqis up thirty percent. It has been69900:50:35,519 --> 00:50:39,480so single minded. Ye. Andit's like if you don't know exactly what70000:50:39,599 --> 00:50:43,559you're invested in, then that you'rekind of probably sitting there with an advisor,70100:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,079or if you're at just one ofthe big wirehouses you don't have a70200:50:45,119 --> 00:50:49,400specific advisor, you're probably confused whileyou're not up. But that's what you70300:50:49,800 --> 00:50:52,079chose to do when you first allocatedyour say your four own cake. And70400:50:52,199 --> 00:50:55,199we did have a call, rightand I just have a call from a70500:50:57,840 --> 00:51:00,280prospect who says that he's unhappy withthis current advisor, and I said,70600:51:00,320 --> 00:51:05,599the first thing you have to decideis whether it's the advisor or whether it's70700:51:05,639 --> 00:51:08,960your allocation that you're unhappy with.So let's talk a little bit about what70800:51:09,119 --> 00:51:15,159your allocation is. And maybe theadvisor is doing a fine job. You're70900:51:15,239 --> 00:51:20,000in the wrong allocation, and itdoesn't. Everybody want to be in the71000:51:20,119 --> 00:51:23,639exact right place. But if you'rea conservative investor, you can't own the71100:51:23,760 --> 00:51:30,079Magnificent seven as your entire portfolio.You couldn't throw an ETF like if the71200:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,800Spy or the Voo or something likethat. But you're not gonna own a71300:51:34,039 --> 00:51:37,920video or a ton of it outright, if you're conservative investors. It's too71400:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,840risky, right. No advisor,no competent advisor, will put you in71500:51:39,880 --> 00:51:45,079a ton of video if you don'thave a high risk tolerance. The primary,71600:51:45,599 --> 00:51:49,519our primary thing we do here istry to match your investment tolerance with71700:51:49,639 --> 00:51:54,119your portfolio. And that doesn't ifyou come in and you're a conservative investor,71800:51:54,679 --> 00:52:00,960a balanced investor primarily interested in returnof the money, not return on71900:52:01,159 --> 00:52:06,480the money, you're not going tohave a big exposure to an index like72000:52:06,599 --> 00:52:09,599the NASDAC that's all over the place. Down thirty percent last year, up72100:52:09,639 --> 00:52:13,920thirty percent this year. That's notwhere you're going to be. And it's72200:52:13,920 --> 00:52:15,800all about the timing in your lifetoo. I mean, if you're retired,72300:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,920you're probably not going to be thataggressive of investor. But if you're72400:52:20,000 --> 00:52:23,920young, you probably will be ableto muster the take on those big risks72500:52:23,960 --> 00:52:28,559and the volatility of the nastac Yeah, I think if you're under forty years72600:52:28,599 --> 00:52:30,559old, you need to be atleast you need to be fully invested in72700:52:30,639 --> 00:52:35,960the market, because really the onlything you need is we've seen I was72800:52:36,800 --> 00:52:40,679a broker when the Dow Jones IndustrialAverage hit one thousand for the first time.72900:52:42,000 --> 00:52:46,079I was there working as a brokerwhen the Dow hit one thousand for73000:52:46,159 --> 00:52:51,360the first time. We even hadcaps that said now one thousand. You73100:52:51,480 --> 00:52:53,599know, it didn't, it didn'thold. It backed off, you know,73200:52:53,760 --> 00:52:58,000got to one thousand and backed off, closed at nine ninety. But73300:52:58,079 --> 00:53:00,480we hit a thousand. It wasa really big deal. Now we're all73400:53:00,480 --> 00:53:06,639the way down to thirty five thousand, two eighty one. So all you73500:53:06,880 --> 00:53:10,199need to be successful in the stockmarket, assuming you're you're dealing in quality73600:53:10,719 --> 00:53:16,000holdings, it's time and as athe QQQ has gone up about twelve hundred73700:53:16,039 --> 00:53:20,119percent since two thousand and two,since the dot com bubble about it right73800:53:20,159 --> 00:53:22,920after that. So now it's goneup roughly twelve And you went through the73900:53:23,159 --> 00:53:27,199two thousand and eight it lost sixtypercent, and then last year, I74000:53:27,199 --> 00:53:30,360mean it lost thirty percent. Yeah, it's own twice. Yeah, and74100:53:30,480 --> 00:53:32,400it just doesn't matter you just ifyou're young, you've just let it go74200:53:34,280 --> 00:53:37,440and don't look at it, anddon't time in your life, and don't74300:53:37,480 --> 00:53:39,239try to tweak it. Don't don't, especially with your four oh one k74400:53:39,400 --> 00:53:43,760don't it's so easy with the four. Maybe this year I need to put74500:53:43,800 --> 00:53:45,559something in Europe. Maybe this yearI need to have more fixed income.74600:53:46,000 --> 00:53:51,800It's you're gonna do the wrong thing. Just if you're young under forty,74700:53:52,119 --> 00:53:54,840Uh, just put it in theSMP five hundred and forget about it.74800:53:55,000 --> 00:54:00,599Leave it alone, because that's goingto give you the best performance with the74900:54:00,679 --> 00:54:01,719least amount of stress. Yeah.What I mean the idea is like,75000:54:02,159 --> 00:54:06,159especially for your retirement accounts, ifyou're young, put it in there and75100:54:06,239 --> 00:54:08,119forget about it. You can haveanother brokerage account where you want to trade.75200:54:08,159 --> 00:54:10,239Maybe you do you got into options, or you want to do some75300:54:10,320 --> 00:54:15,280foreign trading and stuff like that,but you need to have your retirement plan75400:54:15,840 --> 00:54:17,320if you're young. Just let ussit there and don't think twice about it.75500:54:17,679 --> 00:54:20,920Ten and a half percent, yeah, ten and a half percent return75600:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,639over the last fifty years. That'severy seven years. The is gonna double,75700:54:24,079 --> 00:54:28,639right, every seven years. Yourmoney's gonna double if you just leave75800:54:28,679 --> 00:54:32,719it alone and don't screw up.Evy garage. It's time for the Evy75900:54:32,760 --> 00:54:37,679garage. Before we get to theEvy come on, really, yes,76000:54:37,880 --> 00:54:42,480because I wanted to finish my pointwith value is abnormally oversold. It's a76100:54:42,719 --> 00:54:46,360huge I mean, we haven't seenthis type of opportunity since twenty twenty when76200:54:46,440 --> 00:54:50,159growth was just taking off. Youcould throw a dart anything, and value76300:54:50,239 --> 00:54:53,760is really underperforming. So if youare looking to get into something in this76400:54:53,920 --> 00:54:59,639market, obviously growth is kind ofnot there right now. The value stocks76500:54:59,679 --> 00:55:02,760is where you should be looking becausefrom a sector rotation point of view,76600:55:04,119 --> 00:55:07,880it's two. When you say growthis not there, you mean growth in76700:55:07,079 --> 00:55:13,119value stocks is not there, becausegrowth is definitely there in the girl stocks,76800:55:13,239 --> 00:55:16,159right, I'm saying the value ingrowth stocks are yeah, the value76900:55:16,199 --> 00:55:22,639stocks are are showing the performing poorly. Last year, one of the most77000:55:23,519 --> 00:55:29,559one of the worst performing stocks wasSalesforce dot Com. It's now far and77100:55:29,599 --> 00:55:35,159away the number one doll performers thisyear. Boying is another one. So77200:55:35,400 --> 00:55:39,159and right now it's value value islast year Salesforce dot Com. And there77300:55:39,199 --> 00:55:45,039are ETFs the values. So anyway, uh, EV garage Again, I'm77400:55:45,119 --> 00:55:49,159not pro EV, I'm not antiEV. I'm a curious guy who's enjoying77500:55:49,199 --> 00:55:54,360the experience. And there's a lotof our clients who call about EV's because77600:55:54,360 --> 00:56:00,559of these segments that have emailed aboutEV's and I would invite you if you77700:56:00,679 --> 00:56:06,000have EV questions, email me,call me. I'm six weeks into this77800:56:06,159 --> 00:56:09,960experience and i feel like I'm gettingto be a bit of of I have77900:56:10,000 --> 00:56:15,000a good a good font of knowledgeof what's right and what's wrong. And78000:56:15,079 --> 00:56:17,239I'm I'm a very straight shooter.I'm not gonna lie to you and sau78100:56:17,400 --> 00:56:21,280it's the greatest thing ever, andI'm also not going to tell you it's78200:56:21,480 --> 00:56:23,199the worst thing you could possibly do. I'm gonna give you the pros,78300:56:23,199 --> 00:56:28,119I'll give you the cons. Inthe EV Garage, this week is Texas.78400:56:28,760 --> 00:56:32,079The Texas legislature and the governor signedto pass the law last week that78500:56:32,280 --> 00:56:39,000assesses electric vehicle owners four hundred dollarsadditional when they register the vehicle, and78600:56:39,159 --> 00:56:44,599it assesses them two hundred and moredollars per year to renew. Now that78700:56:44,719 --> 00:56:49,039makes sense actually, because they're usingthe same roads as the people with internal78800:56:49,079 --> 00:56:52,039combustion engines, but they're not payingfor them. They're not paying the gas78900:56:52,159 --> 00:56:58,559tax. What I have a problemwith this Texas is gas tax is twenty79000:56:58,639 --> 00:57:02,199cents a gallon, So two hundreddollars, which is your renewal, would79100:57:02,239 --> 00:57:06,679be a thousand gallons. And ifyou're getting let's say twenty miles to the79200:57:06,719 --> 00:57:09,360gallon, which I think is probablykind of an average, that's two that's79300:57:09,400 --> 00:57:15,480twenty thousand miles a year. That'sdouble what the average person drives. So79400:57:15,639 --> 00:57:19,199the EV owners getting ripped off alittle bit on this deal. And I79500:57:19,239 --> 00:57:22,800don't think there's too many people inthe Texas legislature worried about people who can79600:57:22,840 --> 00:57:28,639afford an EV right now and hopefullythey'll be cheaper in the future, not79700:57:28,840 --> 00:57:31,800crying for people that own an EV. There are a few things that are79800:57:31,880 --> 00:57:36,000wrong with an EVY. I founda new one. We know that they79900:57:36,039 --> 00:57:38,960don't have a spare tire. That'sto me, that's a huge negative for80000:57:39,079 --> 00:57:42,679taking it out on the road,even if the battery would get you to80100:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,800San Diego. No spare tire,to me, is a real problem.80200:57:46,679 --> 00:57:50,920You can buy a spare tire forfive hundred bucks a spare tire kit.80300:57:51,000 --> 00:57:58,440So no serious XM radio in manymodels, which is kind of a problem.80400:57:58,480 --> 00:58:02,199I'm a big serious XM radio guy. Lucid is actually doing a campaign80500:58:02,320 --> 00:58:07,960right now where they're going to haveserious XM on their main screen. Uh,80600:58:07,119 --> 00:58:09,920this is the promotional and Lucid,of course, is one hundred thousand80700:58:09,920 --> 00:58:17,360dollar vehicle. It's not a fortythousand dollars Tesla Model three. But Tesla,80800:58:17,559 --> 00:58:23,559the most technologically advanced vehicle on theroad, has not figured out a80900:58:23,679 --> 00:58:28,400way to have the hardware to pickup serious XM. What I learned this81000:58:28,480 --> 00:58:32,599week one one more thing is mostevs, if not all evs, do81100:58:32,840 --> 00:58:42,280not have AM radio. No AMradio. It creates electro magnetic interference.81200:58:43,199 --> 00:58:46,559Interesting, so U no no sparetire, no XM radio, and no81300:58:46,840 --> 00:58:52,239AM radio. Well I found outsomething about electric cars tell me about it.81400:58:52,599 --> 00:58:57,599As the demand for these evs rise, so will there are total emissions81500:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,079at least as long as we continueto lie on fossil fuels for the energy81600:59:01,159 --> 00:59:06,320grid. In fact, when youfactor in the emissions from the energy used81700:59:06,360 --> 00:59:10,199to charge their batteries, evs actuallyemit about half the greenhouse gases of their81800:59:10,280 --> 00:59:17,119internal combustion counterparts. That's also notincluding the cost the emission cost to the81900:59:17,199 --> 00:59:22,760planet that was used for all themines used to produce the battery, all82000:59:22,800 --> 00:59:28,280the lithium, all that copper thathas to be mind somewhere. Those miners82100:59:28,320 --> 00:59:32,760are not using electric minor trucks andthings like that, they're using fossil fuels82200:59:34,000 --> 00:59:37,599to mind those things. Also,mining itself is produced greenhouse gases. So82300:59:38,039 --> 00:59:44,159there is a lot to still bedone until we actually make this thing work.82400:59:44,559 --> 00:59:46,119Because at the end of the day, it's kind of like that picture82500:59:46,159 --> 00:59:50,800I saw with a Tesla and adiesel generation sitting in the back of the82600:59:50,840 --> 00:59:53,760tesla just charging the Tesla. It'slike we're just doing you know, we're82700:59:53,800 --> 00:59:57,480making ourselves look cool, I guess, but we're not really solving the problem.82800:59:57,840 --> 01:00:01,159I think where what we're doing iswe're lowering. I think when we82901:00:01,239 --> 01:00:06,639talked about this a little bit lastweek, that is, if and I83001:00:06,880 --> 01:00:12,519don't disagree with one thing you said, it's absolutely factually accurate. I'm wondering83101:00:12,559 --> 01:00:16,320too, if you take a bulldozerto get x amount of lithium out of83201:00:16,400 --> 01:00:22,679the ground, if that lithium canthen produce fifty electric cars, that's a83301:00:22,679 --> 01:00:24,280pretty good trade off. Well,it's it's it's fascinating you bring that up,83401:00:24,280 --> 01:00:30,400because actually, when when these minersare building these, well, when83501:00:30,400 --> 01:00:34,519they're mining it, the amount oflithium used for an all fuel cell electric83601:00:34,880 --> 01:00:40,400EV battery is the same lithium neededto produce five hybrid batteries. So in83701:00:40,559 --> 01:00:47,079terms of emissions cost per unit produced, the better bet would be doing hybrids83801:00:47,320 --> 01:00:52,440because when a person has a hybrideighty percent sixty to eighty percent at the83901:00:52,480 --> 01:00:55,320time, it's the EV battery doingthe work, which therefore you can bring84001:00:55,440 --> 01:01:00,920down the emission per person that they'reemitting using their cars down to sixty eighty.84101:01:00,199 --> 01:01:05,199So if you have five people reducingtheir emissions down sixty to eighty percent84201:01:05,280 --> 01:01:08,079compared to just one person reducing allof their emissions one hundred percent, well,84301:01:08,159 --> 01:01:12,159that five people, you save alot more and you save it on84401:01:12,239 --> 01:01:15,360the front end too, So froma hybrid point of view, it makes84501:01:15,360 --> 01:01:20,519a lot more sense right now untilwe see an incredible new EV battery being84601:01:20,599 --> 01:01:22,599produced. At the end of theday. Even if we have a five84701:01:22,679 --> 01:01:25,679hundred mile battery, yeah, maybemore people buy it, but you still84801:01:25,719 --> 01:01:29,400need all that lithium for that batteryto be produced. Well, I don't84901:01:29,440 --> 01:01:32,480think the test. Toyota, ofcourse, the largest car builder in the85001:01:32,559 --> 01:01:37,079world, has been more focused onhybrid, and hybrid does make a lot85101:01:37,159 --> 01:01:40,880of sense if they recently made theswitch, made a new CEO or electric.85201:01:40,960 --> 01:01:45,039I don't know it's gonna be allin, but but they've they've been85301:01:45,199 --> 01:01:50,599more The new CEO is more embracingthe EV technology and imagine it's going to85401:01:50,599 --> 01:01:52,079be a full switch because their priestis their number one. Yeah, I85501:01:52,079 --> 01:01:57,079mean that's been there, but they'veagain two weeks ago they announced that seven85601:01:57,199 --> 01:02:00,320hundred and fifty mile battery in asolid state it's not lithium batteries, solid85701:02:00,400 --> 01:02:04,599state batteries, So if you geta solid state battery, they can really85801:02:04,719 --> 01:02:07,199goes into a solid state pardon whatgoes into a solid state an expert on85901:02:07,280 --> 01:02:09,119that. I have no idea either, But those are the type of things86001:02:09,159 --> 01:02:13,880where it's like it sounds fmion batteries, what is the bottom line, right,86101:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,079and what goes in? But thesetype of ideas are in many different86201:02:16,119 --> 01:02:20,360industries where they look great on paper, but when you actually dig into the86301:02:20,400 --> 01:02:23,800components, that's where you actually thedevil's in the details, right. I86401:02:23,840 --> 01:02:27,880mean, when you just pose aquestion, are these good for the planet?86501:02:28,360 --> 01:02:31,199Okay, you can it's it's probablyeasier to say yes to that question.86601:02:31,760 --> 01:02:36,960But when you actually ask the detailedquestions around that general question, you86701:02:37,039 --> 01:02:40,599start to paint a really different picture. Regardless, in twenty twenty, five86801:02:40,719 --> 01:02:46,000percent of vehicle sales were electric onein twenty In twenty twenty one, that86901:02:46,159 --> 01:02:51,199had doubled right to nine percent,are almost doubled twenty two. That's it's87001:02:51,239 --> 01:02:54,880fourteen percent. So this year we'reat eighteen percent so far, So we87101:02:55,239 --> 01:02:59,519went from one in twenty to onein five. What's also because a lot87201:02:59,519 --> 01:03:01,199of other com but these are producingelectric cars? Now, oh yeah,87301:03:01,679 --> 01:03:06,119I mean it's either either get inor be left behind, right, I'm87401:03:06,119 --> 01:03:09,239sure I think that's probably the concern. But if these evs outpaced the rate87501:03:09,320 --> 01:03:14,679of our renewable energy production. Well, then at the end of the day,87601:03:14,719 --> 01:03:17,000we're still going to be using fossilfuels for these evs, So it's87701:03:17,079 --> 01:03:23,280going to increase the emissions. I'mconfused, And again I'm not pron you're87801:03:23,320 --> 01:03:30,320saying that that as long as it'slithium ion batteries, the cost of mining87901:03:30,400 --> 01:03:34,559the material, and it doesn't evenhave to be lithium dave because still if88001:03:34,599 --> 01:03:37,320there's a mine of any I meanto be produced battery, it's going to88101:03:37,320 --> 01:03:40,039be starting for a mine. Right, those trucks mining that is not running88201:03:40,039 --> 01:03:45,119on electricity, they're running on fossilfuels as well. That entire operations running88301:03:45,119 --> 01:03:47,920on fossil fuels. And still whenyou're charging your battery, that also is88401:03:49,039 --> 01:03:52,039running on fossil fuels the majority ofthe time. So as we have all88501:03:52,039 --> 01:03:54,800these people on evs, is thatcontinues to increase more people are using that88601:03:54,960 --> 01:04:00,880energy grid which relies on fossil fuels, which still emits things into the atmosphere.88701:04:00,039 --> 01:04:04,199Well, they's absolutely true, andthe two of the big arguments.88801:04:04,239 --> 01:04:08,079Of course, one of the argumentsis that the other side of that is88901:04:08,559 --> 01:04:14,280most evs are recharging overnight when theenergy grid is there, it's available.89001:04:14,320 --> 01:04:17,159It's not that it's not there,it's that you're still burning. No,89101:04:17,239 --> 01:04:20,840but it's producing the energy whether youuse it or not. Right, I'm89201:04:20,880 --> 01:04:25,400not debating or not we don't haveenough energy capacity. That's not the debate89301:04:25,519 --> 01:04:30,039I'm saying. But it's just it'snot generating any additional pollution with charging overnight,89401:04:30,079 --> 01:04:33,360because that's not producing because if wedidn't have if we didn't have it89501:04:33,440 --> 01:04:39,119in there anyways, and then weuse it. Right, But it's going89601:04:39,159 --> 01:04:43,960to produce the electricity whether whether they'rewhether it's being used or not. That's89701:04:44,000 --> 01:04:46,800why the rates drop at night totry to people to use it. Yeah,89801:04:46,840 --> 01:04:49,719so it's being produced whether use itor not. So they're using,89901:04:50,280 --> 01:04:54,960they're not creating an additional pollution.I guess it's yeah, So you know,90001:04:55,159 --> 01:04:59,320six to one half doesn't no other. When I look at Tesla selling90101:04:59,400 --> 01:05:02,760five hundred thousand of these vehicles everythree months and everybody else telling you know,90201:05:02,880 --> 01:05:10,239ten whatever, the one thing thatsticks in my mind is is that's90301:05:10,280 --> 01:05:15,239a big step towards energy independence.In my opinion, that's a big step90401:05:15,280 --> 01:05:17,719towards energy and it depends and youcan tell by all of the negative ev90501:05:17,920 --> 01:05:21,719articles you should seeing out there thatthey Okay, oil companies are getting very90601:05:21,760 --> 01:05:26,360nervous, but I also is listeningto a fascinating podcast about energy usage.90701:05:26,599 --> 01:05:32,199No matter what we do as aworld, our fossil fuel usage will continue90801:05:32,199 --> 01:05:35,840to increase. And this is whythose third world countries, which is a90901:05:35,960 --> 01:05:39,599lot more of the world than wethink it is, probably about fifty percent91001:05:39,639 --> 01:05:43,719of the world. Those people aren'tusing fossil fuels like we are right now,91101:05:44,639 --> 01:05:47,360Right per capita, we are usingprobably ten x the amount of fossil91201:05:47,360 --> 01:05:50,840fuels any third world country person ismakes time. So even if we cut91301:05:50,960 --> 01:05:58,159our carbon foot down, they arecoming into prosperity, right they're coming out91401:05:58,199 --> 01:06:00,400of poverty into prosperity. We didthe same thing, but we did it91501:06:00,440 --> 01:06:04,039one hundred years ago. Now they'redoing it, which means they're fossil fuel91601:06:04,039 --> 01:06:08,039input increases. And there's a lotmore of those people than there's are of91701:06:08,199 --> 01:06:12,599us. Trust is the West Westerncountry the world's maybe make up one two91801:06:12,639 --> 01:06:16,159billion macs of the world. Thevast majority are coming out of poverty just91901:06:16,360 --> 01:06:20,639now. And as those people usemore and more falsil fuels. They're outpacing92001:06:20,800 --> 01:06:26,960our deductions. And I think anyonethat thinks the electric vehicles, and this92101:06:27,119 --> 01:06:30,920is from a Tesla owner, anyonethat thinks electric vehicles are going to solve92201:06:30,000 --> 01:06:34,840the planet's problems is mistaken. Well, it's anyone who thinks our fossil fuel92301:06:34,880 --> 01:06:38,960input as a planet is going togo down. It's just not looking at92401:06:39,000 --> 01:06:42,199the facts. Unless you want peopleto stay in poverty. No, that's92501:06:42,320 --> 01:06:46,000that's the alternative. I like.I like the oil companies being concerned about92601:06:46,119 --> 01:06:53,400the gas taxes and about not enoughgasoline being purchased and not enough oil being92701:06:53,719 --> 01:06:57,559used. I kind of like that. Actually it feels good. I had92801:06:57,599 --> 01:07:02,199a client call me and asking andI don't mean to dominate this segment which92901:07:02,199 --> 01:07:06,840I'm doing. Colin asked me aboutshort selling, and we talk a little93001:07:06,880 --> 01:07:13,000bit about short selling and what shortselling really means. If you just a93101:07:13,159 --> 01:07:15,760quick segment, if you believe astock is overvalued, you might be able93201:07:15,800 --> 01:07:18,679to borrow the stock and sell itwithout owning it. In other words,93301:07:18,679 --> 01:07:23,360you're going to sell it short shortbecause you don't own it. You have93401:07:23,599 --> 01:07:26,519to get approval to borrow the stockif you want to sell it short.93501:07:26,920 --> 01:07:30,519From the firm that has your account. You have to get that approval ahead93601:07:30,519 --> 01:07:33,360of time. That's relatively new withinthe last few years. If a stock's93701:07:33,400 --> 01:07:36,079in a free fall and everyone knowsit's going to go lower, you may93801:07:36,119 --> 01:07:40,320not be able to borrow the stockas all of that stock's already been alone93901:07:40,320 --> 01:07:43,159because everybody knows it's going down andbe able to buy it back cheaper.94001:07:43,440 --> 01:07:45,719And that's the whole idea with shortselling is you sell it at twenty because94101:07:45,719 --> 01:07:48,199you're going to be able to buyit back at fifteen. It's just a94201:07:48,280 --> 01:07:53,239reverse of how we normally think ofthings. The big negative with short selling94301:07:53,360 --> 01:07:57,360is you're taking on unlimited risk whenyou buy a stock. The worst you94401:07:57,440 --> 01:08:00,280can do is lose the money thatyou have invested. You know, you94501:08:00,320 --> 01:08:01,599buy one hundred shares at the twentybucks, you get two thousand dollars.94601:08:01,800 --> 01:08:06,119That's the most you can lose.Right If you're shortest stock, you must94701:08:06,199 --> 01:08:10,679buy it back at some point andthere is no limit how high it can94801:08:10,760 --> 01:08:16,159go. Great example is Carbona.The stock had gone from fifty eight to94901:08:16,439 --> 01:08:20,720three in a period of about fourmonths and looked like it was going straight95001:08:20,760 --> 01:08:26,920to the scrap heap. You couldn'tgo wrong if you could somehow borrow carbon95101:08:27,039 --> 01:08:30,640the stock and sell it because youknew you were going to be able to95201:08:30,680 --> 01:08:33,600buy it back cheaper. Went fromfifty eight to three. Guess what,95301:08:34,479 --> 01:08:39,960it's stabilized there, and fortunately foryou, you probably couldn't have borrowed the95401:08:40,000 --> 01:08:43,760stock because there's so much had alreadybeen led out. But it has now95501:08:43,960 --> 01:08:50,239reversed dramatically and rallied eight hundred andfifty percent this year. You had to95601:08:50,279 --> 01:08:54,520buy it back at some point.If you haven't bought it back yet,95701:08:54,920 --> 01:08:59,600you're down eight hundred and fifty percentplus the loan interests plus the loan interests.95801:08:59,680 --> 01:09:02,880Right, it's a well on ashort way saying I'm on a short95901:09:02,920 --> 01:09:06,039sale. There's no loan interest.I don't pay a loan interest on short96001:09:06,079 --> 01:09:12,359sale. You're borrowing money. No, I'm not borrowing money. I'm borrowing96101:09:12,520 --> 01:09:16,600stock and the I think the firmmust pay for that, because I've done96201:09:16,680 --> 01:09:21,520some shorting in my life and I'venever paid interest. So there's no something96301:09:21,920 --> 01:09:27,119what was it arrow capital or whateverthe guy killed with the game stop short?96401:09:27,439 --> 01:09:29,960Right? Yeah, I thought theylost because they had to keep coming96501:09:30,039 --> 01:09:31,640up with collateral well, I thinkthey probably had to bor They probably borrowed96601:09:31,680 --> 01:09:35,159the money to do the short Butbut the only thing you have to come96701:09:35,239 --> 01:09:39,159up with on a short sale isthe dividends. If there are any dividends96801:09:39,199 --> 01:09:42,760are paid, you need to paythem, right, So that's the only96901:09:42,840 --> 01:09:45,920cost of short selling though. Butit is unlimited loss. It's extremely risky.97001:09:46,319 --> 01:09:50,239It's a dangerous strategy. Stocks goup eighty five percent of the time,97101:09:50,600 --> 01:09:55,319so you have an eighty five percentchance of losing money if you if97201:09:55,399 --> 01:09:58,680your short stock. You'd like totalk to me a little more about it,97301:09:58,760 --> 01:10:02,039I'm certainly available. But that's mylittle down and dirty on short selling.97401:10:02,880 --> 01:10:05,560You know, I could take thelast part of this segment and talk97501:10:05,560 --> 01:10:11,560about the federal employees that we helpso much, obviously with their pensions and97601:10:11,720 --> 01:10:15,720TSP, FEDLEY, f EHB,A lot of it is a lot of97701:10:15,800 --> 01:10:20,079it's different, right. Me andDylan are actually going through an entire course97801:10:20,520 --> 01:10:26,119in September where we're really going toget even more educated about it because we97901:10:26,199 --> 01:10:30,479do care so much about the federalemployees and understand that their situation is a98001:10:30,600 --> 01:10:33,880lot more unique than many of thepeople we deal with. But you know,98101:10:34,800 --> 01:10:39,520a lot of federal employees. Theytalk so much about the TSP site98201:10:39,640 --> 01:10:43,000and the and the fact that theyhave so many issues in the past.98301:10:43,399 --> 01:10:47,439Obviously you can speak more to this, Dylan. They re reinvigorated the site.98401:10:47,520 --> 01:10:49,439Well, yeah, last year.I mean, if you're a federal98501:10:49,479 --> 01:10:53,560employee getting ready for time, andI'm sure you've figured out by now that98601:10:53,880 --> 01:10:56,600last year they made it all online. You can't really call anybody if you98701:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,720want to transfer money out of it. Two Hira, you gotta go online.98801:10:59,760 --> 01:11:01,680You got to go through the wholeprocess. The website has had issues.98901:11:01,760 --> 01:11:04,920It takes a long time sometimes.Also, when you try and call99001:11:04,960 --> 01:11:09,560a TSP agent to get help,you just get passed around a lot of99101:11:09,600 --> 01:11:13,119the time. It's not the mosteffective way. It's not the most effective99201:11:13,479 --> 01:11:17,000system they have. But that's whya lot of federal employees have been wanting99301:11:17,039 --> 01:11:18,960to get their money out of theTSP as well. They can do in99401:11:19,039 --> 01:11:24,319service rollovers if they're either over fiftynine and a half or in some cases99501:11:24,359 --> 01:11:27,880fifty five, or they just wantto retire and roll it over. Because99601:11:27,880 --> 01:11:30,680the TSP is just a hassle todeal with. They can't actually help you99701:11:30,800 --> 01:11:34,880with any planning or any advice oranything like that because they're not licensed to99801:11:34,920 --> 01:11:38,319do like we're talking about earlier.They can just tell you what it's in99901:11:38,399 --> 01:11:41,439and that's it. It's a supercheap option, but you're limited to your100001:11:41,479 --> 01:11:44,159option and that's why some people keepit in there because it is super cheap.100101:11:44,199 --> 01:11:46,119But then you start trying to planfor retirement, things get a little100201:11:46,119 --> 01:11:49,359more inch kid, things get alittle more real because it's coming up and100301:11:49,439 --> 01:11:53,319nobody can help you. So you'rekind of just winging it yourself. And100401:11:53,399 --> 01:11:56,319if you can do it, you'reown. That's all you know that.100501:11:56,399 --> 01:12:00,359The TSP can be rolled into anIRA. It's a very seamless says.100601:12:00,399 --> 01:12:02,119The TSP site has gotten a lotbetter. It's a lot easier to do.100701:12:02,279 --> 01:12:04,960So if you want more information,feel free to call us about that100801:12:05,039 --> 01:12:06,960and we can help you all youcan. Thank you guys, coming upon100901:12:08,039 --> 01:12:10,520a break here. The it's notthat they don't want to help you,101001:12:10,680 --> 01:12:14,720they just can't help you there likepracticing along without license. We'll be back101101:12:15,159 --> 01:12:18,039right after this break. Thanks forgoing, you say, it's only a101201:12:18,239 --> 01:12:31,760baby. Welcome back. You're listeningto the Money Matter Show. I'm Dylan101301:12:31,760 --> 01:12:34,800Greenberg. I'm here with Todd Click, Dan Greenberg, and Dave Sherwood,101401:12:34,840 --> 01:12:39,000and before the break of the lastsegment, we were talking about the TSP.101501:12:39,119 --> 01:12:42,520We wanted to just clarify something thatif you do so, say you101601:12:42,640 --> 01:12:45,960are over fifty five and you're you'reyou're somewhere in between fifty five and fifty101701:12:46,039 --> 01:12:49,840nine and a half, you canroll over your account if you stop it,101801:12:49,960 --> 01:12:53,760say you retire fifty six, youcan roll over your account into a101901:12:54,279 --> 01:12:58,920IRA, but you will lose thepower to take any money out without penalty.102001:12:59,399 --> 01:13:02,119If you were from TSP or fromthe federal government at age fifty six102101:13:02,439 --> 01:13:06,159and you leave your money in theTSP, you can withdraw that money without102201:13:06,199 --> 01:13:10,439penalty. You just have to paythe income tax like a normal distribution from102301:13:10,479 --> 01:13:14,239your TSP. But if you rollit into an IRA, you will incur102401:13:14,399 --> 01:13:15,840penalty if you want to take thatmoney out before age fifty nine and a102501:13:15,880 --> 01:13:18,800half and after age fifty five.So we just wanted to clarify that.102601:13:19,239 --> 01:13:23,000Yeah, it's just a significant thingto be aware of because you do we102701:13:23,079 --> 01:13:27,239do run into people retiring early andif their thought processes you at fifty five,102801:13:27,239 --> 01:13:29,199I can get my money out ofthe TSP, if you rolled it102901:13:29,279 --> 01:13:31,119into an IRA, that's no longerthe case. Yeah, and so in103001:13:31,199 --> 01:13:33,960that sense, maybe like if peopleare out there that we've had people just103101:13:34,159 --> 01:13:38,239leave a portion of their money inthe TSP until they turn fifty nine and103201:13:38,239 --> 01:13:41,319a half, just in the offof sense that they need to get some103301:13:42,199 --> 01:13:45,279Yeah, we've we saw the market'sbeen trending lower here in August. We103401:13:45,479 --> 01:13:49,520kind of we're concerned at at monthand what was going to happen with the103501:13:49,720 --> 01:13:53,439with the market already up to twentywe talked about Disney at Yeah, I103601:13:53,479 --> 01:13:56,760wanted to talk about that. Yeah. They had an interesting week last week103701:13:56,960 --> 01:14:00,239ahead a mixed earnings report where they'dbe revenue or they beat earnings at miss103801:14:00,279 --> 01:14:03,319revenue, and then they had abunch of news come out, Like we've103901:14:03,399 --> 01:14:05,479been going back and forth, whatare they going to do with ESPN?104001:14:05,520 --> 01:14:09,239Bob Iger said they're gonna sell it, then he said they're not going to104101:14:09,319 --> 01:14:13,119sell it. Then they said they'regonna move it into the streaming platform ESPN104201:14:13,119 --> 01:14:16,600Plus totally, and they had noplans of getting rid of the sports division.104301:14:16,680 --> 01:14:21,119Then last week it came out Barstooland Penn National Gaming, which teamed104401:14:21,199 --> 01:14:26,199up a few years ago for Barstoolsports Book. Pen National Gaming is a104501:14:26,279 --> 01:14:30,760gambling not nationwide gambling company. Theystarted, they got their feet wet with104601:14:30,079 --> 01:14:34,720online gambling with Barstool sports Book.They parted ways. Dave Portnoy, the104701:14:34,880 --> 01:14:41,840founder of Barstool, bought Barstool backfor a dollar and from Penn National Gaming104801:14:42,319 --> 01:14:45,159and then the only then one ofthe stipulations was if he ever sells it104901:14:45,239 --> 01:14:47,520again, Penn gets fifty percent ofthe revenue. He has no plans to105001:14:47,560 --> 01:14:50,880sell, he said, And PennNational Gaming is going to realize the eight105101:14:51,000 --> 01:14:55,920hundred and fifty million dollars loss.But the one they did was take that105201:14:56,039 --> 01:15:00,159bar Stool sports book platform, thewhole platform. They're gonna rebrand it as105301:15:00,399 --> 01:15:03,039ESPN BET. So now ESPN isgoing to be a gambling platform. And105401:15:03,119 --> 01:15:08,600that's all Disney. So Disney gotinto the gambling world this past week.105501:15:08,760 --> 01:15:14,239It was also interesting because I sawa report about Disney's effects they're having on105601:15:14,359 --> 01:15:18,319this strike that's going on in Hollywoodwith all the actors and writers. It's105701:15:18,319 --> 01:15:23,319actually a benefit for Disney, andit might not seem like that of first105801:15:23,399 --> 01:15:27,600value, but the reason is ananalyst estimated that they could translate an additional105901:15:27,720 --> 01:15:31,199three to five billion dollars in freecash flow from the savings that could continue106001:15:32,079 --> 01:15:36,359from not producing shows. Right they'renot spending the money on new shows right106101:15:36,399 --> 01:15:40,479now because there's no writers to pay. If there's no writers to pay,106201:15:40,560 --> 01:15:45,439that's more free free savings there.So from a free cash flow point of106301:15:45,479 --> 01:15:48,319view, it's probably not showed upin the numbers too much yet, But106401:15:48,520 --> 01:15:54,479in quarter four and quarter three whenDisney eventually reports, it should start to106501:15:54,520 --> 01:15:58,720show up that they're saving money onthe streaming side of the costs that streaming106601:15:58,760 --> 01:16:00,319has. Yeah, they're so they'resaved money on that. They increased the106701:16:00,399 --> 01:16:06,079monthly price of thirteen ninety nine forDisney Plus. They also are down seven106801:16:06,079 --> 01:16:10,520point four percent from the last quarterto one hundred and forty six million Disney106901:16:10,520 --> 01:16:14,359Plus subscribers, which they keep losingsubscribers. When we've talked about art theories107001:16:14,399 --> 01:16:19,359as to why, primarily India Indiabecause they lost the rights the Indian Premier107101:16:19,479 --> 01:16:24,880League of Cricket matches, right,That's why. That's the biggest reason.107201:16:25,199 --> 01:16:28,079So they lost that. They alsohad an interesting part of their report was107301:16:28,520 --> 01:16:32,359forty two billion dollars in one timeof charges and impairments due to various different107401:16:32,399 --> 01:16:38,600things. It was the Disney Pointcontent from the Disney Plus and it was107501:16:38,680 --> 01:16:41,840just ending third party licenses in agreements. They lost forty two billion dollars of107601:16:41,920 --> 01:16:45,000one time, So we're gonna behaving that. That was a one off107701:16:45,439 --> 01:16:47,439and with the stock somewhat so downright, stock was up three percent for107801:16:47,479 --> 01:16:50,399the week. No, I meanjust in the last year, ye like107901:16:50,560 --> 01:16:55,520not tracking with the SMP. It'spriced about the same as it was at108001:16:55,520 --> 01:17:00,279the pandemic along just like right andthen the pandemic, the park we're all108101:17:00,319 --> 01:17:04,279shut down, the cruise line wasshut down, and it's it's priced at108201:17:04,359 --> 01:17:09,279that same level now as it wasthen. And now you have Bob Iger108301:17:09,399 --> 01:17:12,720back at the helm, and notonly that but his his right and left108401:17:12,760 --> 01:17:15,960hand, uh, the two guys, both of whom were being talked about108501:17:16,000 --> 01:17:21,479as potential successors for him. Itseems like a strong time to be looking108601:17:21,520 --> 01:17:25,640at it. They got an awfullystrong team in place. Now it's gonna108701:17:25,680 --> 01:17:30,159take time, maybe three to sixmonths for the stock to really go.108801:17:30,760 --> 01:17:33,279And I think what I would lookfor if I was wanting to be an108901:17:33,359 --> 01:17:36,000investor in Disney, as I wouldlook for. You might want to take109001:17:36,039 --> 01:17:40,680a small position here and you knowthe eighty five ish area. That's that's109101:17:40,720 --> 01:17:45,159fine. If you want to onehundred shares, maybe you buy twenty five109201:17:45,199 --> 01:17:49,039shares in here and then and thenwait, I want to see the newsflow109301:17:49,239 --> 01:17:55,760continue to be disappointing and the stockknock care. That's what I typically look109401:17:55,840 --> 01:17:58,840for on a reversal. Yeah.Another interesting part of that too was an109501:17:58,880 --> 01:18:03,359international parkside were the big highlight ofthe report, but domestic attendance and domestic109601:18:04,119 --> 01:18:08,279hotel bookings at the parks was down. And part of the region is because109701:18:08,279 --> 01:18:13,239they're just sky Those prices for thosetickets are just skyrocketing. People getting tired.109801:18:13,239 --> 01:18:15,039They can't afford it. They can'tafford a Disney vacation, family vacation109901:18:15,119 --> 01:18:18,079anymore, right, And we're startingto see that in the economy. And110001:18:18,439 --> 01:18:23,279we've we've we've been, in fairness, we've been a little too conservative over110101:18:23,319 --> 01:18:26,560the last sixty to ninety days,to be honest with you, could it's110201:18:26,600 --> 01:18:30,640been pedal to the metal with theMagnificent seven. And we keep waiting for110301:18:30,720 --> 01:18:34,079the next shoe to drop because wesee an economy that's slowing, and when110401:18:34,119 --> 01:18:40,159you see a report from UPS wherethey're lowering guidance for the full year,110501:18:40,760 --> 01:18:45,239and then you see copper having thisworst week this year. Copper is the110601:18:45,880 --> 01:18:50,239the commodity of the economy, right, It's used in more things than anything110701:18:50,319 --> 01:18:55,880else. So you've got that.You see a market where the price earnings110801:18:56,039 --> 01:19:01,680ratio is sixty five percent above normal, and you think there's got to be110901:19:01,720 --> 01:19:05,720a pullback here. September is historicallythe worst month of the year for the111001:19:05,840 --> 01:19:11,119market. August is generally pretty normal, but we're, you know, halfway111101:19:11,159 --> 01:19:15,039through August now, and we're kindof creeping up towards September October, and111201:19:15,399 --> 01:19:19,760October, interestingly, is historically isa fractionally higher month, but it's been111301:19:19,840 --> 01:19:24,399the home of three of the biggestcrashes in history, so it has a111401:19:24,439 --> 01:19:29,359bad rep So we're coming into thatSeptember October period, which is typically problematic111501:19:29,439 --> 01:19:31,880for the market. With a marketthat's gained twenty percent on the year,111601:19:32,279 --> 01:19:36,680is overvalued, just be cautious,that's all right, and also with interest111701:19:36,800 --> 01:19:42,920rates still high. Goldman SA GoldmanSachs economists came out this week and said111801:19:43,199 --> 01:19:47,079each additional dollar of interest expense forcescompanies to lower their capital cap X,111901:19:47,119 --> 01:19:51,439which is their capital expenditures things theyspend by ten cents and labor costs by112001:19:51,479 --> 01:19:57,479twenty cents. So there is areal fundamental impact of higher rates. Right,112101:19:57,560 --> 01:20:00,439It's not just that you're paying moreon loans, but it leads to112201:20:00,600 --> 01:20:03,319other things in the business that youhave to cut back on. We have112301:20:03,479 --> 01:20:09,159not seen that in the labor reportat all. No. A solar company112401:20:09,279 --> 01:20:14,039came out Friday, Maxi and Solarcame out. Their stock was up forty112501:20:14,079 --> 01:20:17,039percent the year. It plunged thirtypercent at the open on Friday. They112601:20:17,119 --> 01:20:24,840gave a disappointing quarterly report, whichthey called because of weakening and consumer demand.112701:20:26,199 --> 01:20:30,119It's I mean, it's probably oneof the ultimate discretionary purchases, solar.112801:20:30,520 --> 01:20:35,119Yeah, right, you don't haveto have solar. So is that112901:20:35,439 --> 01:20:41,199a reflection of what's going on inthe economy? You know, perhaps perhaps,113001:20:41,960 --> 01:20:45,359But Disney's in an interesting play hereand reminds me a little bit of113101:20:45,680 --> 01:20:49,039Boyling a couple of years ago,where where nobody wanted anything to do with113201:20:49,119 --> 01:20:55,079it. And so Dutch Brothers they'relike Dutch Bros. I shouldn't say Dutch113301:20:55,119 --> 01:20:59,640Brothers. It's not Dutch Brothers,Dutch Bros. And I always thought that113401:20:59,720 --> 01:21:02,720was short for brothers, which Iprobably is, but the name of the113501:21:02,760 --> 01:21:09,600company is Dutch Bros. Has notparticipated in this year's rally. Jumped twenty113601:21:09,680 --> 01:21:13,880five percent on Wednesday morning after reportinga strong quarter. They named a former113701:21:14,439 --> 01:21:23,960Starbucks CEO excuse me, a formerStarbucks executive as your CEO to switch gears113801:21:23,960 --> 01:21:28,159a little bit. You want toknow interesting thing about Canada's real estate Canada113901:21:28,279 --> 01:21:31,960real estate. Yeah, yeah,it's a bubble since in Canada. Yes,114001:21:32,560 --> 01:21:39,279the disposable income and housing prices inAmerica have normally been correlated. Right.114101:21:39,439 --> 01:21:41,640The only time we've seen him getway out of whack was in two114201:21:41,680 --> 01:21:45,159thousand and eight. Well, inCanada, the housing prices compared to disposable114301:21:45,239 --> 01:21:50,399income are so divergent it's not evenfunny. And in two thousand and eight114401:21:50,840 --> 01:21:54,439it was very divergent, and itcame down a little bit, but it114501:21:54,479 --> 01:21:57,880didn't come down nearly as much asthe American market. And then it's continue114601:21:57,920 --> 01:22:01,119to skyrocket through the last fifteen years, and it is has a huge divergence114701:22:01,119 --> 01:22:05,880between the disposable income of a Canadiancitizen and the actual price of the mortgat114801:22:06,000 --> 01:22:11,079of the price of the home.Now going the focus on the mortgages.114901:22:11,159 --> 01:22:14,720Over half of all mortgages in Canadaare variable rate, which means they are115001:22:14,840 --> 01:22:16,920mostly talking about that a couple ofmonths ago. That's not good. No,115101:22:17,079 --> 01:22:20,600they're most exposed to rising interest rates. What have we had rising instrates?115201:22:20,680 --> 01:22:26,119Right? A variable rate, fixedpayment mortgage. Under this type of115301:22:26,239 --> 01:22:30,439range arrangement, your payment remains thesame, though if rates go up you115401:22:30,560 --> 01:22:34,039pay more interest and less principle everymonth. It's also worth noting that there's115501:22:34,079 --> 01:22:38,479something called a trigger rate, whichis the point at which one hundred percent115601:22:38,560 --> 01:22:42,840of your payment is going towards interestpayments, so no principle is being paid115701:22:42,880 --> 01:22:46,119off if you're If you exceed thatrate, the interest payments get piled onto115801:22:46,199 --> 01:22:48,960your loan, so at the endof the term you could end up being115901:22:49,159 --> 01:22:55,640owning owing more than what your equityhas eroded. Finally, it's worth noting116001:22:55,720 --> 01:22:59,840that the outside the provinces of Albertaand I can't say this word Scott's Awashing,116101:23:00,479 --> 01:23:03,600which makes up only fifteen percent ofthe population of the country. Mortgages116201:23:03,640 --> 01:23:09,520in Canada are recourse loans, whichmeans the lender can go after other assets116301:23:09,720 --> 01:23:13,399that the homeowner owns if the valueof the mortgages sees the value of the116401:23:13,479 --> 01:23:17,800residential real estate. This may insulatebanks somewhat to the pains, but obviously116501:23:17,960 --> 01:23:23,399the household would face a lot ofdanger. There another bubbles. China exports116601:23:23,399 --> 01:23:27,560suffered their biggest drop in three yearsin July, down fourteen percent. As116701:23:27,920 --> 01:23:30,319people are going elsewhere, Dean,We've talked about this lot on the show.116801:23:30,399 --> 01:23:33,920We want to see that happened.China reported a three tenths of a116901:23:34,000 --> 01:23:40,039percent drop in consumer prices, adrop in consumer prices in July. Wholesale117001:23:40,119 --> 01:23:44,399prices down four point four percent.That is not good. That is not117101:23:44,520 --> 01:23:48,039good. Deflation is more of aproblem, Dean. I would argue than117201:23:48,119 --> 01:23:54,680inflation. They haven't deflation there absolutely. But you know the only something with117301:23:54,800 --> 01:23:56,880China, you never know what's trueor not true. It's not okay,117401:23:57,600 --> 01:24:00,760and they have a whole different economy. They're just pumping the money where they117501:24:00,840 --> 01:24:04,439need to. They'll cut back onthe jobs if everyone's successful to take over117601:24:04,840 --> 01:24:09,159their company. And just look atOlive Baba and Jack Ma. Never see117701:24:09,199 --> 01:24:13,960Jack maher anymore. You know whatthe global inflation rate is now global inflation117801:24:14,199 --> 01:24:18,199that encompasses emerging markets and developed markets. Obviously emerging five point five thanks higher117901:24:19,239 --> 01:24:24,840seven eight point six eight point six. Dean knows how to look at my118001:24:24,880 --> 01:24:29,840paper. Yeah, So obviously withdevelop emerging markets, those are the countries118101:24:29,840 --> 01:24:32,399that are coming kind of growing.They're not going to have howl higher inflation118201:24:32,479 --> 01:24:35,199than we do. All right,we have one more segment coming up.118301:24:35,439 --> 01:24:40,800We're going to talk to our todayplan and Jonathan and get some more tidbits118401:24:41,079 --> 01:24:45,319on how to go ahead and planfor your future. Thank you for listening.118501:24:45,399 --> 01:25:00,239We do appreciate it. Say it'sall a bab Welcome back your listening118601:25:00,239 --> 01:25:02,560to the final segment of the Moneymountof showing. Before we start with Jonathan118701:25:02,600 --> 01:25:05,279Sabilia, I did get an answerfrom my friend that lives in Jersey.118801:25:05,720 --> 01:25:10,039They pump their gas. They can'tpump their own gas. They can pump118901:25:10,119 --> 01:25:12,920their own they cannot They have somebodypump their gas. Okay, so yeah,119001:25:12,920 --> 01:25:15,680that's the last place, last place. Yeah, there you go.119101:25:16,119 --> 01:25:18,760John. We had we had oneplace in town that could pump their own119201:25:18,800 --> 01:25:23,760gas, and I don't think theydo it anymore. It was on in119301:25:23,840 --> 01:25:29,640what town here? It was onriver and first I think the X station119401:25:29,880 --> 01:25:32,479had a choice sway and Craycroft willpump your gas. Yeah, it's a119501:25:32,520 --> 01:25:35,840family company, kind of good people. Yeah, that's kind of cool.119601:25:36,159 --> 01:25:45,319So John Jonathan Sabilia our state planner. I am so thankful and grateful to119701:25:45,439 --> 01:25:47,640have a resource in you, because, honestly, when you're doing a financial119801:25:47,680 --> 01:25:53,680plan, the one thing financial advisorscan't do is implement in the state plan.119901:25:53,840 --> 01:25:55,880You could talk about in the stateplan, but at the end of120001:25:55,880 --> 01:25:58,520the day, you need to bean attorney to implement it. So grateful120101:25:58,520 --> 01:26:01,640to have him as my partner here, great partners together, and welcome to120201:26:01,680 --> 01:26:04,079the show as you've been on before. Thank you, thank you, thank120301:26:04,079 --> 01:26:06,960you, thank you. Now.I read an article this week and I120401:26:08,239 --> 01:26:12,039was thinking about you a lot becausebaby boomers hold half of the nation's one120501:26:12,119 --> 01:26:15,640hundred and forty trillion dollars in wealth, okay, and I was breaking it120601:26:15,760 --> 01:26:23,680down by what each generation owns.This is interesting. Baby boomers their top120701:26:23,760 --> 01:26:28,239ownership is in equities, their secondsreal estate, Their third is in pensions.120801:26:28,760 --> 01:26:33,119Generation X top is in real estate, seconds and pensions, third is120901:26:33,199 --> 01:26:38,399in equities. You work your waydown to the millennials. Their top ownership121001:26:38,520 --> 01:26:42,520is in real estate, second ispensions, third is other assets. And121101:26:42,600 --> 01:26:46,960guess what's last stocks? Stocks?But don't even know why you're not counting121201:26:47,039 --> 01:26:53,720their pensions as being in stocks.They don't have money to have other investment121301:26:53,800 --> 01:26:59,600until they inherit money, right,Okay. The people that actually get older,121401:27:00,439 --> 01:27:02,479they're in stocks because they're taking thefull one case and stuff and rolling121501:27:02,560 --> 01:27:06,439them into stocks and keeping them thereand then and then they have investment portfolios,121601:27:06,960 --> 01:27:11,319all right. And that's why asyou get older, you leave that121701:27:11,399 --> 01:27:15,479democratic side of things and can becomea Republican because you realize taxes kill you.121801:27:16,560 --> 01:27:19,760Well, if we're take if we'retalking about half of one hundred forty121901:27:19,800 --> 01:27:24,640trillion, we're talking to seventy trilliondollars over the next probably TOIL twenty forty122001:27:24,680 --> 01:27:28,239five, it's going to be transferringgenerations. Right, it's to generation X,122101:27:28,319 --> 01:27:30,600some of it's to millennials. Andwith that being said, we have122201:27:30,840 --> 01:27:34,760a safe harbor law. Is thatthe correct term? Was it safe sunset122301:27:34,840 --> 01:27:40,079law? That's what it is,sunset law, which could be lowering in122401:27:40,560 --> 01:27:44,840twenty twenty five the amount that isthe exclusion for passing on to states.122501:27:44,880 --> 01:27:48,119Correct, So is there anything tobe done? Now? What is the122601:27:48,239 --> 01:27:53,079things that for these baby boomers whohold half of the trillion, half of122701:27:53,079 --> 01:27:55,800the one hundred forty trillion dollars inwealth, what do they do to help122801:27:55,920 --> 01:27:59,239their generations that they're seemingly going tobe passing on. In fact, eighty122901:27:59,279 --> 01:28:01,560five percent of these of this moneyis going to be passed on to actual123001:28:01,680 --> 01:28:05,199people, fifteen percent to charities.Obviously charities. There's a lot of things123101:28:05,239 --> 01:28:08,800you can do with that as well. Well. First off, I want123201:28:08,800 --> 01:28:11,600to say that I lived in Philadelphiafor a while and I would go to123301:28:12,000 --> 01:28:14,560New Jersey and they would pump yourgas. And it's one of the most123401:28:14,640 --> 01:28:19,640awkward situations is having another person's yeaand they stand. It is just a123501:28:19,720 --> 01:28:23,039weird, weird feeling, and youhave to wait, and then you got123601:28:23,159 --> 01:28:26,000to tip them, and it's justa whole deal. You know, you123701:28:26,079 --> 01:28:28,800think tipping's bad, now, imaginehaving to tip somebody for pumping your gas.123801:28:28,880 --> 01:28:32,520It's in New Jersey. Yeah,yeah, I think the gas was123901:28:32,600 --> 01:28:36,640pretty cheap though on the Jersey side, but I don't but this was years124001:28:36,680 --> 01:28:42,800ago. Who knows. As forthe comment about the uh you know,124101:28:42,880 --> 01:28:45,079what is the best thing to do. Even with the sunset for revision,124201:28:45,119 --> 01:28:47,960there's gonna be a lot of peoplewho are not going to be subject to124301:28:48,039 --> 01:28:53,159the estate tax. So the bestthing you can do to avoid taxes is124401:28:53,199 --> 01:28:58,640don't give your kids gifts during theirlife without consulting an attorney or without consulting124501:28:58,960 --> 01:29:03,359uh CPA well or a tax repair. For instance, your house. You124601:29:03,439 --> 01:29:08,600know, if you have let's sayyou bought the house for one hundred thousand124701:29:08,640 --> 01:29:13,079dollars and now it's worth five hundredthousand dollars at your death, they get124801:29:13,119 --> 01:29:16,000a step up in basis. Itbecomes investment property. The kids get it,124901:29:16,199 --> 01:29:18,399and they turn around to sell it. They won't pay any capital gains125001:29:18,399 --> 01:29:21,560as long as they sell it,you know, within a reasonable time after125101:29:21,680 --> 01:29:25,520death, okay, because they'll geta step up in basis, which is125201:29:25,560 --> 01:29:30,880basically, whatever the fair market valueof the home is at the data to125301:29:30,960 --> 01:29:34,720death of the original owner. That'swhat you inherit as a basis. And125401:29:34,840 --> 01:29:38,640so if it's five hundred thousand dollarsa fair market value at the day to125501:29:38,720 --> 01:29:42,760death you sell it, turn aroundto sell it the next day, they125601:29:42,840 --> 01:29:45,159will pay no capital gains. Whatif they sell it then at lost on125701:29:45,239 --> 01:29:48,119the road, do they get tothe tax loss even though they never paid125801:29:48,159 --> 01:29:50,319for the game. Oh, theydon't get a tax loss for that they125901:29:50,359 --> 01:29:54,239don't sell. In other words,if you get a step up basis and126001:29:54,319 --> 01:29:59,279then it goes down and then yousell it, well you would you would126101:29:59,359 --> 01:30:00,960know, well you would get it, you would get a long term you126201:30:01,319 --> 01:30:04,760would get a loss, but itwould be a capital loss, long term126301:30:04,840 --> 01:30:09,399long term loss. Because it's justlike if they have same with stock,126401:30:09,560 --> 01:30:12,359right, and then they sell themwhen it goes down, then they're achieving126501:30:12,399 --> 01:30:15,680the loss after that. Sure,how many no sentence giving it away until126601:30:15,119 --> 01:30:17,760exactly no longer here. Yeah,so many clients have we seen it?126701:30:17,920 --> 01:30:21,399Have capital gains of one, two, three hundred thousand dollars on a single126801:30:21,439 --> 01:30:25,880position. And I'm going to givesomething to my kid. No, you're126901:30:25,920 --> 01:30:28,880not, No, you're not.No, don't do it. The last127001:30:29,079 --> 01:30:33,800CPA firm I worked for, weactually did a trust return for in the127101:30:33,880 --> 01:30:39,640state return. Dad died. Hebought Apple stock back in the eighties for127201:30:39,800 --> 01:30:42,640five thousand dollars. It was wortha million dollars when he died. But127301:30:42,720 --> 01:30:44,880he, you know, just satthere, and he was a guy living127401:30:45,079 --> 01:30:47,039you know, by his own means, didn't sell any of it during his127501:30:47,159 --> 01:30:51,159life. Kids got a million dollars, you know, because dad decided to127601:30:51,239 --> 01:30:56,960invest properly, and because of thestep up in basis, they turned around127701:30:56,960 --> 01:31:00,880and sold it and paid no taxeson it. Right. So when it127801:31:00,960 --> 01:31:04,399comes to charities, I think that'sa more niche group obviously. But AF127901:31:04,520 --> 01:31:10,079had had clients who want to lookat looking at giving some of their assets128001:31:10,119 --> 01:31:12,800to charities. What are some ofthe things they can be looking at there?128101:31:13,079 --> 01:31:15,119So you would probably want to,Okay, there are things that will128201:31:15,199 --> 01:31:19,359be taxable at your death. Soif you have multiple assets, you have128301:31:19,439 --> 01:31:23,079a home, and you have stocks, and then you have a four oh128401:31:23,159 --> 01:31:27,039one k, you would probably wantto allocate the four oh one k to128501:31:27,119 --> 01:31:31,439the charities. Why because that's ataxable item at your death. Because it's128601:31:31,479 --> 01:31:36,279a it's basically a contract, allright, So your beneficiaries will be paying128701:31:36,359 --> 01:31:40,079taxes on money they pull off froma four oh one k. So if128801:31:40,119 --> 01:31:43,720you allocate the four oh one kto the charities, they're the ones that128901:31:43,760 --> 01:31:46,720will be in. Charities don't paytaxes, so your state won't be paying129001:31:46,720 --> 01:31:49,800it and then the remainder, youknow, the house the stocks that we're129101:31:49,800 --> 01:31:53,840talking about, those goes to thekids with the step up in basis and129201:31:53,880 --> 01:31:56,880they wouldn't pay any taxes. Yeah, and four oh one k is also129301:31:56,920 --> 01:32:00,039would be the same thing with anIRA correct. Yeah, step up in129401:32:00,119 --> 01:32:02,720basis. One of the things thatthat Biden was talking about when he was129501:32:02,800 --> 01:32:05,640first electric president, if you rememberthere or not, he said the guy,129601:32:05,720 --> 01:32:10,399the guy could have a million dollarsgain, it's taxable, and he129701:32:10,439 --> 01:32:13,319gets in the car wreck on theway the way to a meeting and that129801:32:13,880 --> 01:32:17,199becomes zero not rights. So manyways to start taxing. That's been there129901:32:17,560 --> 01:32:20,800on a few things. But whathe's not telling you is that you've been130001:32:21,039 --> 01:32:24,880being taxed the whole time on everythingyou earn, the money to invest,130101:32:24,960 --> 01:32:27,680the money that you already get taxedon, and then he wants to tax130201:32:27,760 --> 01:32:30,359you again and not let you getthat one benefit that you get and avaising130301:32:30,439 --> 01:32:35,000it. They want to take wealthagainst away from anything being passed. One130401:32:35,239 --> 01:32:39,520set. There's a lot of thingsin life that are very confusing deing.130501:32:39,720 --> 01:32:42,319So on that note, what doyou think is going to happen there with130601:32:42,399 --> 01:32:45,840the sunset of the what is iteleven million going back down? It's right130701:32:45,840 --> 01:32:51,920now about twelve point nine million dollars, and it'll go down. I've heard130801:32:51,960 --> 01:32:57,279speculation between five to seven million dollars. And that's first state tax. As130901:32:57,319 --> 01:33:00,520long as your a state is undertwelve point nine. You said twelve point131001:33:00,600 --> 01:33:02,840nine right now, then there isno estate tax. Correct. It used131101:33:02,840 --> 01:33:06,640to be six hundred thousand. Itused to be very low back in the131201:33:08,039 --> 01:33:13,880early eighties. I think it wasone million during Bush and then it jumped131301:33:14,000 --> 01:33:18,359up pretty significantly, uh during theend of the Bush term. Uh,131401:33:18,520 --> 01:33:23,920and then I think Trump got itup to about eleven point eleven million dollars131501:33:24,000 --> 01:33:27,680per person during his during his reign. So now it's twelve nine. It's131601:33:27,720 --> 01:33:30,800well two to inflation. It goesup. It goes up every year.131701:33:30,000 --> 01:33:36,000Yeah, what is it? Whatdo you tax that? After you have131801:33:36,279 --> 01:33:42,520over that limit? You tax?So somebody has a business that's worth twenty131901:33:42,560 --> 01:33:45,640million dollars, they don't have theseven or eight million dollars. That's a132001:33:45,840 --> 01:33:49,880third three point two million dollars checkercutting the government and they don't have it.132101:33:50,039 --> 01:33:54,319Then what happens they have to sellthe business? Correct? Yeah?132201:33:54,359 --> 01:33:58,600The biggest for the biggest No,I said, that's the problem that we132301:33:58,720 --> 01:34:01,560have. There's no caveats. It'slike, if you that's the reason they're132401:34:01,600 --> 01:34:04,399trying to change, they change it. I mean, but then when you132501:34:04,479 --> 01:34:08,039do some planning, you get someinsurance, you get some life insurance,132601:34:08,119 --> 01:34:12,079you know, to cover these statetaxes. One of the biggest areas was132701:34:12,439 --> 01:34:15,840hit by this is the family farmSouth Dakota, boy And so I'm familiar132801:34:15,880 --> 01:34:21,079with that. The farms, especiallyin those areas, have have gotten extremely132901:34:21,239 --> 01:34:25,680valuable. And but if you're not, you should be, you know,133001:34:25,800 --> 01:34:28,560doing the proper planning. I meanthey're they're not, but it's still course133101:34:28,640 --> 01:34:32,920money for those three five million dollarcontracts, insurance contracts, insurance contracts exactly.133201:34:32,960 --> 01:34:35,199It's not like I can go outand just go get term for that.133301:34:36,079 --> 01:34:40,039But that's just an avenue of oneway of you know, defeating the133401:34:40,159 --> 01:34:42,920estate tax. There's other ways,family limited partnerships. You know, you133501:34:43,000 --> 01:34:45,520could throw that piece of property,that farm, that farmland to a family133601:34:45,560 --> 01:34:49,760limited partnership and squeeze it down andvalue. When I say squeeze, uh,133701:34:49,880 --> 01:34:53,560this might be a little too technicalto talk about on this segment,133801:34:54,039 --> 01:34:59,199but you can sometimes due to uh, the I R S rules, you133901:34:59,279 --> 01:35:02,479can take twenty million dollars piece ofreal estate and squeeze it down thirty percent,134001:35:02,680 --> 01:35:10,199so it'd be worth fourteen million dollarsbecause of lack of marketability, last134101:35:10,279 --> 01:35:14,960lack of transferability. So let's makeit simple. If you're in a situation134201:35:15,119 --> 01:35:16,920that you think over the next fewyears you're gonna have more than seven million134301:35:16,960 --> 01:35:23,920dollars, you need to start lookingat your state plan again. Oh absolutely,134401:35:24,119 --> 01:35:26,840okay, because it's not to twelvepoint nine. I'm looking at where134501:35:26,840 --> 01:35:29,439it's going to be in a coupleof years because if they're still letting you134601:35:29,520 --> 01:35:30,960know, the lower because this isthe way they're going to get taxes and134701:35:31,199 --> 01:35:33,399well, and one of the thingsyou can do, and they you weren't134801:35:33,399 --> 01:35:36,439able to do in the past,is you could lock in that twelve point134901:35:36,520 --> 01:35:40,920nine million dollars. Okay, andone day. One way you could lock135001:35:40,960 --> 01:35:46,560it in is you know, giftingyour some of that money into a spousal135101:35:46,680 --> 01:35:49,880trust for the benefit of your spouse, and you could lock in that twelve135201:35:50,199 --> 01:35:54,800twelve point nine. So if itgoes down to five million, you're still135301:35:55,079 --> 01:35:58,600have the twelve that twelve million lockedin. Well, that's good, and135401:35:58,680 --> 01:36:01,479that's why you got to look atnow Stay planned. Jonathan's right in our135501:36:01,520 --> 01:36:05,319office, right next to Dave.It's that easy. Just call us an135601:36:05,359 --> 01:36:09,960appointment, sit down with them,and we'll figure out what we need to135701:36:10,039 --> 01:36:13,600do for you. That's what thewhole financial planning and stay planning investing part135801:36:13,760 --> 01:36:16,960is. We finally got it towhere I wanted this to goal and this135901:36:17,119 --> 01:36:21,479has been my vision for thirty years, Dave, thirty years. All right,136001:36:21,520 --> 01:36:26,119we'll be back next week. We'reyour money matters. We always want136101:36:26,159 --> 01:36:30,119to be happy, we always wantto be healthy, and every day we136201:36:30,319 --> 01:36:39,800try to be profitable. Don't sayit's all ab