Fed Chair Powell Testifies on Capitol Hill. Will Rates Go Higher?

100:00:04,759 --> 00:00:07,839Good morning. It's that time again. It's the Money Matters Show. It's200:00:07,879 --> 00:00:12,039Sunday morning, June twenty fifth,six months now Christmas time. That's it,300:00:13,400 --> 00:00:16,039June twenty This is what everyone wantsto hear, right six months el400:00:16,160 --> 00:00:20,480Christmas, although it would be niceto have a little Christmas weather right now.500:00:20,920 --> 00:00:25,679Yeah, the hot days have finallycome, for sure. We kind600:00:25,679 --> 00:00:29,039of we kind of skated through.I mean, last weekend we'd only had700:00:29,039 --> 00:00:35,079a seven one hundred degree days.Last year at that period we'd had twenty800:00:35,079 --> 00:00:39,560two, so we were way behindschedule. But that's changing fast. We're900:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,759making up for It looks like itlooks like the June that we've all come1000:00:42,799 --> 00:00:45,920to know is here. Yeah.I've had to start waking up real early1100:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,320to get the workouts in the morning. It's just so hot in the after1200:00:48,359 --> 00:00:51,240it is, and I'm having togo to the gym instead of the river1300:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,799path because it's just you know,four one, five, one oh eight.1400:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,799Yeah, it's just a it's justa little too much. Good news1500:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,439is traffic is lighter. Anyone thatcan't afford to get out of here is1600:01:00,479 --> 00:01:06,159gone, including Dean. Maybe Tucsoncan actually find a way to not have1700:01:06,280 --> 00:01:08,719pot holes on a freeway. Iwould love I would love to see that1800:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,680happen. The best freeway system inthe world is in Los Angeles. How's1900:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,879that working out? That's that's whatthey consider the best. Oh yeah,2000:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,400well it's the most extensive, certainly. Oh yeah, yeah, And how's2100:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,959that working out? Very well?Yeah, dude? What happens with with2200:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,359freeways of courses? You funnel everybodyonto one road. That's the problem.2300:01:26,359 --> 00:01:30,079Whether you know the nice thing aboutTusigon, you think that boy be nice2400:01:30,079 --> 00:01:33,120to have a freeway from the butyou know, we've got a little bit2500:01:33,159 --> 00:01:34,840of a mini freeway and that's RiverRoad. And you and I both know2600:01:36,200 --> 00:01:40,120with the office on River Road inthe afternoon, it gets to be stopped2700:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,079and stopping and go. It's Imean, it's it's pretty bad. I2800:01:42,079 --> 00:01:47,159just don't understand Paul. Holes ona freeway. Fix them. Dean is2900:01:47,200 --> 00:01:53,200still on his European adventure, hopplingalong on his crutches after his uh we3000:01:53,359 --> 00:01:57,799think acl tear that won't be dealtwith until he gets back good. Just3100:01:57,799 --> 00:02:00,640so everyone, I've had a lotof questions about this. Yeah, it's3200:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,480been a big buzz topic. Heis doing all right, all, he's3300:02:02,519 --> 00:02:07,680doing fine. And I'm actually hisMedicare agent. Did you know that?3400:02:07,760 --> 00:02:09,960I know. Yeah, he's myonly client, probably will only ever be3500:02:10,080 --> 00:02:14,800my only client. I had todo all that stuff just so. But3600:02:14,919 --> 00:02:19,280he has perfect medical insurance for thisexact situation. Don't have to worry.3700:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,680He's taken care of. He did. He did the smart thing. Yeah,3800:02:22,719 --> 00:02:25,240there's a little bit more cautily Medicareplan, which is, uh,3900:02:25,800 --> 00:02:31,000most of us do the Medicare advantage, which is really their cheap, wonderful4000:02:31,080 --> 00:02:37,879coverage, great plan unless you're uninternational. Yeah, and so, being4100:02:37,960 --> 00:02:42,039knowing that he liked to travel internationally, went with a more expensive plan,4200:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,879and thankfully he did because great foreshadowing. Yeah, he would be out of4300:02:46,240 --> 00:02:47,560out of pocket. Let me letme read the most exciting part of the4400:02:47,599 --> 00:02:52,639show real quick. There's our disclaimerthe show. Well you know, okaye,4500:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,000The show is sponsored by Greenberg FinancialGroup. You can listen on seven4600:02:55,039 --> 00:03:00,159ninety k ST or iHeart Radio.The show discusses different investment products and strategies.4700:03:00,319 --> 00:03:04,439Every product in strategy has some typeof inherent risk, and we strongly4800:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,879encourage our listeners to probably understand theserisks, risks to determine whether to buy,4900:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,400sell or hold. The show hasbeen on the air for over thirty5000:03:10,479 --> 00:03:15,000years. Greenberg Finance Groups registered withthe SEC and as a member of FINRA5100:03:15,199 --> 00:03:19,280in the SIPC. You can visitour website at Greenberg Financial dot com for5200:03:19,479 --> 00:03:23,520more information. Well done. Sowe came off a three day weekend last5300:03:23,599 --> 00:03:27,719weekend. Uh not this weekend,just two days, but three days last5400:03:27,719 --> 00:03:30,240weekend, and you went to Mexicowith a group of seven other people,5500:03:30,240 --> 00:03:34,000eight of your total. Yeah,there was a lot. You did survive.5600:03:34,319 --> 00:03:36,560We did survive. We have anyeight time? Do you have any5700:03:36,560 --> 00:03:38,680stories from Mexico? Do you cantell? Yeah? Yeah, I mean5800:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,919one broken nose, not me.You actually got a broken nose in your5900:03:42,919 --> 00:03:45,560group. We did to give abroken nose. Banana boats are crazy,6000:03:45,759 --> 00:03:50,560right, Dave? I mean thosebanana boats. I'm not sure. Okay,6100:03:50,599 --> 00:03:53,039So I don't drink. So isthat a drink? No, it's6200:03:53,240 --> 00:03:57,240it's it's okay. So a boatpulls a raft and it looks like a6300:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,280banana it's and so you you youkind of um straddle it like it's a6400:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,680like a horse, okay, andon both sides, and it looks like6500:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,120a banana Okay. So the boatpulls it really fast and you get whipped6600:04:06,159 --> 00:04:09,080around, you fall in the water. It's a great time, right,6700:04:09,960 --> 00:04:15,879But when you row boat, theboat is pulling a raft. The power6800:04:15,959 --> 00:04:20,600boat, yes, the motoring it, that's the one that's pulling. Yeah,6900:04:20,639 --> 00:04:26,519he's not a guy with oars.Okay, raft key with me.7000:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,800So the banana boat. After whenyou fall off, everyone hits each other,7100:04:30,959 --> 00:04:34,360right, because they're so compact withanother raft. Yeah, there's eight7200:04:34,399 --> 00:04:38,120of us on this raft. Cool. So if we all fall off at7300:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,759one time, a lot of bodiesare going to hit all other bodies,7400:04:40,879 --> 00:04:44,680right, and no one has controlover that, and someone gotta you know,7500:04:44,959 --> 00:04:48,399A heel to the nose and aRocky Point was fun and you got7600:04:48,399 --> 00:04:51,120in the water and the water wascomfortable and it wasn't Oh it was so7700:04:51,160 --> 00:04:55,839hot that the water was probably hot. And Rocky Point yeah, the sand7800:04:55,879 --> 00:04:59,480is unbearable. Yeah, the sandsrocky. I don't go there for the7900:04:59,480 --> 00:05:00,720beach day, you know. Igo there for the fun. It's a8000:05:00,720 --> 00:05:05,720great time. I loved it.Anyway, my weekend was far less fun8100:05:05,759 --> 00:05:09,480than yours. I heard you wentthrough it. I went through it on8200:05:09,480 --> 00:05:13,600on Saturday morning. To start offSaturday morning, I went to Fries and8300:05:13,879 --> 00:05:17,000there was an elderly gal there andthere were only two shopping carts available,8400:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,639and she was trying to get themunstuck, which we've all done. We've8500:05:20,639 --> 00:05:25,439all done that in our life.And there's a real simple solution to unsticking8600:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,560shopping carts. You just grab oneand just give it a good shake and8700:05:28,600 --> 00:05:30,439a rattle and they come apart,right, it's done. In this particular8800:05:30,439 --> 00:05:33,839case, my shoulder came apart andstiff. So that's how that's how I8900:05:33,920 --> 00:05:40,120started off my three day weekend.And so I hobbled home and decided to9000:05:40,160 --> 00:05:45,120do a little trimming in the backyardand ended up falling down and smashing into9100:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,959a mosquite tree and ripping up myleft arm and badly bruising my tailbone.9200:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,879And there you go. How wasyour father's day? Not so good?9300:05:54,160 --> 00:05:58,079Not very good. Yeah, don'task me about my weekend. Yeah.9400:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,920You know, if you if you'vehave not listened to the show before,9500:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,399or if you've listened to the show, or if you just missed Dean's voice,9600:06:04,759 --> 00:06:09,040Yeah, you can go to theiHeart app, the iHeart website,9700:06:09,079 --> 00:06:13,199or just go to our Greenberg Financialdot com and click on the microphone in9800:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,920the upper left left hand. Corn, I can never remember I've actually looked9900:06:16,920 --> 00:06:21,160at it and all the past showsare there. Yeah, so's it's quite10000:06:21,160 --> 00:06:26,279amazing. And you know, obviouslywe also have our Saturday radio shows which10100:06:26,319 --> 00:06:30,040is six thirty am, twelve pmand twelve thirty pm on this station seven10200:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,959nineties as well. Those ones wedon't put on the podcast, but if10300:06:32,959 --> 00:06:36,240you wanted to listen more. Deanand Dylan do those TV shows. We10400:06:36,279 --> 00:06:42,000take the audio recordings from the TVshows, so they're not as updated as10500:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,519these shows are, but they havea lot of good information around financial planning,10600:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,279mitigating risk, things like that,just good general financial information. And10700:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,519I think Dean and Dylan have donetwelve of them or something like that,10800:06:51,879 --> 00:06:56,160right, and so if you've heardall twelve of them, and yes they10900:06:56,199 --> 00:06:59,920do repeat. Yes, So ifyou've heard all twelve in one, come11000:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,000on Twitsch channels, because that's allthere are. Big headline this week,11100:07:04,079 --> 00:07:09,360it seemed to dominate the news allweek. Was not not financial all but11200:07:09,399 --> 00:07:14,399it was that submersible that that gotlost on this way, that the Titanic,11300:07:14,399 --> 00:07:16,439I mean, that was that wasthe main news story all week,11400:07:16,600 --> 00:07:21,560and sadly, um it didn't workout. But I couldn't turn on any11500:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,759news channel without that being the leadstory. You know, I think that's11600:07:25,800 --> 00:07:29,319gonna be a great movie one daybecause he could you imagine being in that11700:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,040boat, no, and like knowingthe oxygen's running out? Right? Well,11800:07:33,079 --> 00:07:35,560but I want I don't know thatthey got to that point. I'm11900:07:35,600 --> 00:07:39,240not gonna beat this to death becausey'all have been listening to this all week.12000:07:39,480 --> 00:07:44,759Hopefully it imploded very quick right onthe day one, the first hour,12100:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,399no pain, because I think allof us can imagine being in that12200:07:47,519 --> 00:07:53,600boat, down underwater, running outof oxygen, looking at each other.12300:07:53,920 --> 00:07:57,040I mean, that's just I thinkthat's why it was such a big headline,12400:07:57,040 --> 00:08:01,600because it's so terrifying. Yeah,to think about that market. You12500:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,160know, we said last week thatwe thought the holiday shortened week might be12600:08:05,199 --> 00:08:11,040a little difficult to market. Hadgone up SMP up six weeks in a12700:08:11,120 --> 00:08:16,519row, NASDAC up eight weeks ina row. Every valuation measured that we12800:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,879look at was screaming Sala sal sal, And I don't mean, boy,12900:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,879we're going down. This is it, man. But we had just gotten13000:08:24,920 --> 00:08:28,360too far, too fast. Ithad been a Goldilock scenario where the Fed's13100:08:28,399 --> 00:08:35,519gonna sto operation interest rates and AIis going to boost corporate profits and we've13200:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,240avoided the recession and all things aregood, right. But the one thing13300:08:39,360 --> 00:08:43,279that kind of put a wrench inthat plan was Wednesday and Thursday, Drome13400:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,720Powell came back online and testified infront of Congress, as he does twice13500:08:46,720 --> 00:08:50,759a year. He has two meetingswith Congress where they grill him on his13600:08:50,840 --> 00:08:56,480monetary policy. Why are they doingwhat they're doing right? And largely he13700:08:56,519 --> 00:09:00,240says, again, most members ofthe Fed believe there's still possibly two more13800:09:00,279 --> 00:09:03,200rate hikes before the end of theyear. When I said last week that13900:09:03,519 --> 00:09:07,279in an environment where all news isgood news, that had you had and14000:09:07,320 --> 00:09:11,840he did say exactly that last week, the week before last, that the14100:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,960market would anticipating that he would comeout leave interest rates unchanged, which he14200:09:18,039 --> 00:09:22,879did, and that he would saythat they're done because the market actually was14300:09:22,919 --> 00:09:26,440looking for at least two interest ratecuts before the end of the year.14400:09:28,039 --> 00:09:31,559He came out and stopped raising ratesand said there's going to be two more14500:09:31,600 --> 00:09:35,840interest rate increases before the end ofthe year. Now in an environment where14600:09:35,039 --> 00:09:39,759a neutral environment, or where allnews is bad news, markets down five,14700:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,440six, seven hundred points on that. Yeah, this market where all14800:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,799news is good news. They said, well, they're almost done. Yeah,14900:09:46,840 --> 00:09:48,840you know that's how they that's howthey framed it. No, it's15000:09:48,840 --> 00:09:50,960a great way to put it.They almost didn't want to hear it,15100:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,000right, They're like, oh,but yeah, but he didn't he stopped15200:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,960breaking rights. So we're just focuson that point. I didn't read it15300:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,279this time, and you know,Okay, he's gonna raise it two more15400:09:56,279 --> 00:10:00,720time. But they're almost done.Yeah. So that's that's the environment in15500:10:00,759 --> 00:10:03,200which is wonderful. I mean thatmeans the market goes higher. Is there15600:10:03,240 --> 00:10:07,919a pullback from time to time?Yeah? We gave back what ten percent15700:10:07,080 --> 00:10:11,440this past week. We gave backten percent of what we've gained in the15800:10:11,440 --> 00:10:15,120previous two weeks. Yeah, theydeal. I mean the real problem with15900:10:15,159 --> 00:10:22,440all of this is the overwhelmingly bullishnesswith the VIX. The volatility index at16000:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,360almost thirteen now, yeah, Imean everyone is too confident. That's really16100:10:26,360 --> 00:10:33,240the problem. And the volatility indexis the more the higher that gets,16200:10:33,440 --> 00:10:37,639the better opportunity you have to buythe market because that means everybody is really16300:10:37,200 --> 00:10:43,440overly concerned. Right now, nobodyis concerned about anything. The vix is16400:10:43,639 --> 00:10:48,240maybe even at an all time low. I know it's close to it an16500:10:48,279 --> 00:10:52,120all time the fear is at anear an all time low. That's generally16600:10:52,159 --> 00:10:56,120not a good environment because that's anenvironment where the market is vulnerable to any16700:10:56,240 --> 00:11:01,159kind of odd ball news that comesout. Yeah, anything unexpected can can16800:11:01,279 --> 00:11:05,960create problems for that. And Ithink you just got to continue listening to16900:11:05,960 --> 00:11:11,720the FED because it doesn't seem likethere are any catalysts that are coming up17000:11:11,879 --> 00:11:15,759other than the upcoming earning season,which probably is just going to echo what17100:11:15,759 --> 00:11:18,960we already saw in quarter two.I'm having a hard time thinking of anything17200:11:20,000 --> 00:11:24,279that really spooks the markets other thanjust drawn pause saying something right. I17300:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,679mean, unless you have some typeof black Swan event or something. Well,17400:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,240I can say in the forty yearshave done this. Uh, you17500:11:30,279 --> 00:11:33,480won't see coming what spooks the market. You won't see it countwent happens.17600:11:35,159 --> 00:11:37,799So I don't know what it's goingto be. It'll be something, um,17700:11:37,120 --> 00:11:41,720but we have a still market wasdown this week. The doll was17800:11:41,759 --> 00:11:46,919down five hundred and seventy two points. SMP five hundred was down one hundred17900:11:46,919 --> 00:11:50,279and ninety seven. Assume a downsixty one, NASA down one ninety seven18000:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,360be awful too. For the week, the doll was down one point seven18100:11:54,399 --> 00:11:58,399for SEN, SMP down one pointfour, and NASTAC down one point four.18200:11:58,799 --> 00:12:01,120The Russell, which is the orvolatile, down three percent. And18300:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,200here's the key. The equal weightedSMP fi founded down two point eight percent.18400:12:05,639 --> 00:12:09,279So the equal weighted SMP five founded, which has all five hundred stocks18500:12:09,320 --> 00:12:13,440get the same weighting when you're lookingat that, is up two percent for18600:12:13,480 --> 00:12:18,960the year. Now, interest ratesare flat on the year. So if18700:12:18,000 --> 00:12:22,080you have with all of this giddinessgoing on, and then the NASDAC up18800:12:22,120 --> 00:12:26,840thirty percent, the SMP five hundredup thirteen percent. Realistically, if you18900:12:26,960 --> 00:12:33,679have a professionally managed account, thatis a sixty forty sixty percent in stock,19000:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,600forty percent in bonds Europe, maybea couple of percent for the year,19100:12:37,279 --> 00:12:43,919which would be real, which wouldbe reasonable if the stocks that people19200:12:43,039 --> 00:12:50,080want to own in conservative accounts,the Merks, the Johnson and Johnson's,19300:12:50,399 --> 00:12:56,399the Procter and Gambles are not workingthey're just not working. I follow five19400:12:56,559 --> 00:13:03,000different exchange traded funds that invest strictlyand dividend related stocks, which are what19500:13:03,080 --> 00:13:07,559we're most interested in, blue chipdividend payers, and I updated it before19600:13:07,600 --> 00:13:11,039the show, and they're all downfour or five percent for the year.19700:13:13,799 --> 00:13:16,600So it isn't up, up andaway. And boy, I'm looking at19800:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,480my portfolio and the SMPS up thirteenpoint three. I expect to be up19900:13:20,480 --> 00:13:22,840at least ten. Yeah, yougotta be. You gotta feel sad for20000:13:24,320 --> 00:13:28,639sorry for those value investors out there, right, because they'd got absolutely pummeled20100:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,200in twenty twenty with all the youcould throw a dart at any stock it20200:13:31,279 --> 00:13:35,919was going up and nothing was basedon valuations. And then they had a20300:13:35,919 --> 00:13:39,159better year last year. They didoutperform a lot of the growth people because20400:13:39,200 --> 00:13:41,320they did well. In fact,actually it's good I thank for bringing out20500:13:41,320 --> 00:13:46,840the The SMP five hundred last yearwas down about twenty percent, primarily because20600:13:46,879 --> 00:13:50,480the NASDAC was down thirty percent.But the dividend payers, the blue chip20700:13:50,799 --> 00:13:54,600stocks were for the most part flattop a little bit exactly. Now we're20800:13:54,600 --> 00:14:00,799seeing the opposite, right, they'reunderperforming again, and realistically in a smart20900:14:00,840 --> 00:14:05,600market, like the value stocks shouldin the long run not outperformed, but21000:14:05,639 --> 00:14:11,679they shouldn't be always out underperforming,especially in these type of environments. Yeah,21100:14:11,679 --> 00:14:15,519because they last year, okay thatMarco was down big last year,21200:14:15,759 --> 00:14:18,159and the value stocks didn't didn't godown, right, and now they should21300:14:18,159 --> 00:14:22,279They're down five So in two ina year and a half, they they21400:14:22,279 --> 00:14:24,320haven't made any money at all,exactly nothing. And you kind of can21500:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,639see that with some of the biggestvalue investor we all know, Warren Buffett.21600:14:30,039 --> 00:14:33,559Obviously his best portfolio, his beststock in his portfolio is what not21700:14:33,679 --> 00:14:35,759a value stock and it's an appconsiderate but it's an Apple, it's a21800:14:35,759 --> 00:14:41,159growth stock. It's not value buthis oxy, right, which is that21900:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,600um that's done not well. Andso there's a couple of those big value22000:14:43,639 --> 00:14:48,600investors who are having struggle struggling inthis environment here where it's only really seven22100:14:48,679 --> 00:14:52,080or eight stocks leading the way,and it's really not based on a lot22200:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,360of fundamentals. It's that price,the magic ratio where what could be in22300:14:56,399 --> 00:14:58,639the future. I like the pricethe matric. That's a that's a nice22400:14:58,759 --> 00:15:01,240term like that. Yeah, Istole it from someone if you look at22500:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,720your portfolio and and you look atit and say, I'm disappointed in how22600:15:05,720 --> 00:15:11,960it's performing. Before you complain aboutthe manager, look at how you're allocated.22700:15:13,039 --> 00:15:16,519Look at what you've chosen to beallocated. If you've chosen to be22800:15:16,120 --> 00:15:22,360one hundred percent in bonds, you'remaybe one percent for the year. The22900:15:22,559 --> 00:15:24,600SMPS up thirteen, Well why amI not up thirteen? Well? Could23000:15:24,639 --> 00:15:28,919you have nothing to do with theSMP. That's what you chose, and23100:15:28,919 --> 00:15:33,039that's based on your risk tolerance,totally total. And we talk about this23200:15:33,159 --> 00:15:35,519a lot on the show, thatrisk tolerance has changed based on environments.23300:15:35,919 --> 00:15:39,519Right, your risk tolerance before twentytwenty, twenty twenty one, twenty twenty23400:15:39,519 --> 00:15:41,960two, out twenty twenty three,they're all going to be different because all23500:15:43,039 --> 00:15:46,879those environments were different, and sosometimes it didn't make sense to let's do23600:15:46,919 --> 00:15:50,200another risk tolerance, right, Andwe can do that for free for you23700:15:50,279 --> 00:15:54,360at any single time, client ornot. You just send us on contact23800:15:54,399 --> 00:15:58,000to Greenberg Financial dot com, sendus an email. We can send you23900:15:58,039 --> 00:16:00,000the link. You can fill itout. It's five or ten minute.24000:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,559It's gonna let you know where youare. Scale to one to one hundred24100:16:02,759 --> 00:16:04,759and from there, that's really howyou should be managing your accounts, if24200:16:04,759 --> 00:16:07,639you're doing it yourself or if moneymanagers should be managing it, based on24300:16:07,639 --> 00:16:11,600your risk tolerance and your goals andobjectives. But the first part is you24400:16:11,639 --> 00:16:14,799got to know where your risk isand that will fluctuate. So in these24500:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,879type of environments where the market runsup and maybe you're feeling more bullish and24600:16:18,080 --> 00:16:22,399more aggressive than normal, take thatrisk tolerance again to make sure that that's24700:16:22,440 --> 00:16:26,559truly where you are. You're absolutelyright that the what the market is doing24800:16:26,559 --> 00:16:33,320at any given point can dramatically impactyour risk tolerance. And when the market's24900:16:33,399 --> 00:16:36,559doing really, really well well anddoing well like it is this year,25000:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,600you really are comfortable with the market. And when your market's terrible like last25100:16:40,639 --> 00:16:45,039year, you want out. Andthat's that's very typical. Economy overall doing25200:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,799better than expected. Interest rates relativelysteady. This week, the Bank of25300:16:48,840 --> 00:16:53,480England did hike to sect yeah,and several of the major banks around the25400:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,559world have hiked. Are fed decidedto pause, that was their choice whatever.25500:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,360I think there's one thing we gotto keep in mind about the Bank25600:17:00,399 --> 00:17:03,440of England is in a lot ofthose European countries is they had a lot25700:17:03,559 --> 00:17:07,200higher inflation than we did. Yes, right, and they were not as25800:17:07,279 --> 00:17:11,599quick to raise rates as we were, so they were they are kind of25900:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,160lagging us. So even though itis a surprise, I think more of26000:17:15,200 --> 00:17:22,359that surprise was based on our economicprojections compared to what really happened. The26100:17:22,599 --> 00:17:25,799couple of housekeeping things from last week. One of the questions we had last26200:17:25,799 --> 00:17:29,839week that we couldn't answer is canyou rent solar? We would talking about26300:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,319Dylan. Dylan knows about as littleabout his solar as anybody I've ever known,26400:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,920but uh, you know, that'swhat you were going to do,26500:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,559and I should do you own itor rent it? Yeah? He should?26600:17:40,799 --> 00:17:42,440I don't know, And so wewondered if you could rent it?26700:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,759And then the answer is yes,you can rent it, but it makes26800:17:45,799 --> 00:17:48,519no economic chanse. No, yeah, makes no And you did your solar26900:17:48,559 --> 00:17:52,000thing and bought your solars and yeah, yeah, renting it makes no economic27000:17:52,079 --> 00:17:56,200chanse. The second thing that thequestion we couldn't answer is how long does27100:17:56,279 --> 00:18:02,839the state hold unclaim or as cheatedThat's the word as cheated, and as27200:18:02,920 --> 00:18:07,400cheated means returned to the state orreturns actually going back return to the lord27300:18:07,039 --> 00:18:11,480h not the lord above, butthe lord of the manor m So how27400:18:11,480 --> 00:18:18,839long can they hold unclaimed property?The answer is forever. They may convert27500:18:18,880 --> 00:18:25,119it to cash. They're not wantingto hold houses and cars and a personal27600:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,640property and that sort of thing.But um so they would would salad at27700:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,279auction probably with it. I thinkthey hold it two years and then seal27800:18:30,279 --> 00:18:33,440it at auctions. How did thatcome up with that cash Well, I'm27900:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,680trying to think how it came up? Oh were they We were talking with28000:18:36,839 --> 00:18:41,720Jonathan about how you need to explorethat unclaimed properties, that somebody may have28100:18:41,839 --> 00:18:45,920unclaimed property. Jonathan had run inour attorney had run into somebody who had28200:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,000a bunch of unclaim property, andso we started talking about that and it28300:18:49,079 --> 00:18:52,759just kind of came up, wellhow long do you have and they answered,28400:18:52,839 --> 00:18:56,039you have forever. Essentially, oildown three dollars on the week to28500:18:56,160 --> 00:19:02,359sixty nine dollars. Gasoline prices arestill kill us in Tucson versus anywhere else28600:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,559in the country. Still don't getit. The one thing I wanted to28700:19:04,559 --> 00:19:11,079bring up about the economy is theexisting home sales, sales of existing homes28800:19:11,160 --> 00:19:15,160rows point two percent and may notmuch it slightly above expectations, but year28900:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,640over year sales are down twenty threepercent. The real interesting stat that I29000:19:18,680 --> 00:19:25,599was seeing is the number of homesavailable for sale. Is that its lowest29100:19:25,680 --> 00:19:30,240since Redfinn began recording that data intwenty twelve. We've talked about this on29200:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,920the show before. When you havehints a supply and demand thing, right,29300:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,599I mean, when you don't havea supply and you still have the29400:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,400same amount of demand, prices aregoing to stay up or elevated, right.29500:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,920And that's why we continue to thinkthe housing markets able to stay robust29600:19:45,960 --> 00:19:51,240in this type of mortgage rate environmentis because there's just no supply available,29700:19:51,759 --> 00:19:53,559right, and with mortgage RAITs wherethere are, they're going to be forced29800:19:53,559 --> 00:19:57,079into renting. And so I don'tthink there's a huge amount of demand,29900:19:57,119 --> 00:20:02,680but the supply is just so littlethat making up for any lack of demand30000:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,079that that's out. Yeah, Imean historically is well, I love this30100:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,559house, I want to live here. I really enjoyed this neighborhood. I30200:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,880couldn't be happier. Now it's Ilove this mortgage. I don't want to30300:20:10,920 --> 00:20:15,599get rid of this mortgage. Yeah, it's telling people people are rather than30400:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,519coveting their houses, they're coveting theirmortgages. Yeah, one hundred percent.30500:20:18,559 --> 00:20:22,240It makes sense. I mean everythingcomes down to a cash flow. And30600:20:22,279 --> 00:20:26,759what's the bigger status symbol right nowthan having a two percent mortgage? For30700:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,640sure, it's right out there.Gold was down forty dollars on the week30800:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,079as interest rates rose. Gold pricedin dollars. You know, dollar rises,30900:20:33,519 --> 00:20:37,200gold goes down, So gold downforty bucks to nineteen Now wasn't that31000:20:37,240 --> 00:20:41,400long ago? Gold was two thousandbucks. Now we're tickling nineteen hundred.31100:20:41,759 --> 00:20:45,880I was surprised by how much thedollar increased this week. Yes, ten31200:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,799year treasury versus the two year treasury. We talk about that the inversion.31300:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,680You expect the short term rates tobe lower than the long term rates.31400:20:53,920 --> 00:21:00,920They're not. When they're not,it typically portends a period of slowing economic31500:21:00,960 --> 00:21:06,279growth. The ten year treasury yieldas a Friday three point seven five,31600:21:06,599 --> 00:21:11,119the two year treasury yield four pointseven five got back to one to one31700:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,759hundred basis points. That's the biggestspread we've seen. It has been there31800:21:14,799 --> 00:21:18,720before, but it's the biggest spreadwe've seen, and it portends a period31900:21:18,799 --> 00:21:23,559of slower growth ahead, and soI think it's certainly We also saw with32000:21:23,680 --> 00:21:29,799the yield curve that the market wasexpecting at least maybe one rate drop by32100:21:29,839 --> 00:21:33,400the end of this year, onecouple next year. They're not projecting any32200:21:33,559 --> 00:21:36,799now for this year, and maybeone or two next year, So the32300:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,559market is being less optimistic about anyrate cuts going forward. The bottom.32400:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,160If you based it just upon commentsfrom the Federal Reserve, you would expect32500:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,440the market to be down five toten percent from here, not not coming32600:21:48,519 --> 00:21:52,000up, but you'd expect it alreadyto have happened. Yeah, and it32700:21:52,039 --> 00:21:56,519hasn't, which is which I thinkis probably a product of excitement about artificial32800:21:56,519 --> 00:22:02,319intelligence and how far that's going tocarry Corporate America and the FOAMO right,32900:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,160the fear of missing out, andwhen you have this type of rally.33000:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,440You saw what Tesla did, wesaw when a video did, and we33100:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,160see what Metas done. When you'renot in those stocks you really want to,33200:22:11,400 --> 00:22:12,880you're like, oh, well,this is my one chance. If33300:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,880I'm not going to get it now, it might you know, sore off33400:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,799forever. And that's why I thinkwe're continue to see the elevated prices that33500:22:18,839 --> 00:22:22,759we are, we'll have to watchthe fear index. Theres the fear index33600:22:22,799 --> 00:22:26,680starts to tick up. That's anindicator that people are finally waking up to33700:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,519the fact that trees don't grow tothe sky. Yeah. And the market33800:22:30,640 --> 00:22:34,720valuation, whether it's the pe ratioor the Bullinger bands or whatever you want33900:22:34,720 --> 00:22:40,440to use, is simply overpriced.It's been parabolic. It's moved from four34000:22:40,519 --> 00:22:44,920thousand to forty four hundred in astraight line. These are kinds. These34100:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,599are the kinds of moves that donot last. And I'm not again,34200:22:48,839 --> 00:22:52,039we're not suggesting there's a big pubebecause here's what happens. SMP five hundred34300:22:52,039 --> 00:22:59,079closed on Friday at forty three fortyeight. Now the old resistance forty three34400:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,359twenty five becomes support. Yeah,once you've broken through that long term resistance,34500:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,960which was forty three twenty five,it becomes support. So now the34600:23:07,039 --> 00:23:11,440market comes down to another twenty fivepoints from here, is getting into that34700:23:11,599 --> 00:23:15,599technical support and does that hold ornot? And if that doesn't hold,34800:23:15,640 --> 00:23:22,240then it goes lower. But whatonce which once was resistance is now support.34900:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,440Yeah. No, I totally agree. Bitcoin had a good week,35000:23:26,680 --> 00:23:32,400more support from traditional financial company schwabIn Fidelity starting their own exchange, their35100:23:32,440 --> 00:23:36,440own bitcoin exchange. Uh, okay, hold on, you're talking about Swaban35200:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,839Fideli or we're gonna talking about blackRock First, No, Swaban Fidelity and35300:23:38,839 --> 00:23:41,720then black Rocks. Well, thebig news is black Rock, and um35400:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,640I want to talk a little bitmore after the break about that one.35500:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,519So okay, I'll be able toget getting close to a break here.35600:23:48,519 --> 00:23:52,519So the regional bank indecks back downagain. I didn't see anything. I35700:23:52,559 --> 00:23:56,480didn't see any regional banks under gounder. I didn't see any regional banks35800:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,880even reporting that they're close to goingunder. But for some reason there was35900:24:00,920 --> 00:24:07,119a fullback in the regional banks thispast week. Took the regional bank index,36000:24:07,160 --> 00:24:11,359which had bounced about fifteen percent offof that May lull. It raced36100:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,880about half of that game. Yeah, over the past week. Pal says36200:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,519they're well capitalized, right, sohe must be right. Well, hope,36300:24:17,519 --> 00:24:21,400So again, we appreciate you joiningthis on this red hot Sunday,36400:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,000back in Sunday in June, inthe middle of the desert. What do36500:24:25,039 --> 00:24:26,920you want right, We'll be backright after this break. Thanks again for36600:24:27,000 --> 00:24:36,160joining us. Yeah, welcome backto the Money Matters Show. My name36700:24:36,200 --> 00:24:40,880is Todd Luke and I'm here withDavid Sherwood. Dean still not here in36800:24:40,920 --> 00:24:45,279Europe, having a great time.Dylan out in Illinois, Illinois at a36900:24:45,279 --> 00:24:48,759wedding, at a wedding, Deanand Europe with on crutches with a ACL37000:24:48,839 --> 00:24:52,720issue. But his attitude is good, that's for sure. Now, we37100:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,119were talking a little bit about bitcoinbefore the break. It had an incredible37200:24:56,160 --> 00:25:00,400week. It was up seventeen percenton the week, largely to do with37300:25:00,559 --> 00:25:07,720black Rock. They are they putan application into the SEC for the first37400:25:07,839 --> 00:25:11,680ever spot settled bitcoin ETF. Nowmany people would be like, well,37500:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,200there's already bitcoin ETFs out there,and there are. However, they invest37600:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,119in bitcoin in a different way.They've invest in it through futures contracts.37700:25:19,519 --> 00:25:22,440Not going to explain with future collinistsgets in the weeds. But essentially you're37800:25:22,440 --> 00:25:27,799not buying the actual physical bitcoin.You're buying just an IOU of it.37900:25:27,599 --> 00:25:32,279In a sense, this one thatblack Rock would be creating, the ETF38000:25:32,319 --> 00:25:37,240is an actual buying of the bitcoinoutright. The reason that SEC was denying38100:25:37,279 --> 00:25:41,839this in the first place was becausethey had a problem with how they could38200:25:41,880 --> 00:25:48,440actually see which customers owned which bitcoin. They wanted to have a purview,38300:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,559have at least an insight view onknowing, this customer owns this much bitcoin,38400:25:52,799 --> 00:25:56,480this customer owns that much bitcoin,and black Rock was able to share38500:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,839that data in a way that sufficesthe SEC's requirements, and it's it's thought38600:26:00,839 --> 00:26:03,359that this one's actually going to beapproved. Also, black Rock being one38700:26:03,359 --> 00:26:07,319of the world's largest hedge funds,this puts a lot of um well,38800:26:07,359 --> 00:26:12,640it brings a lot of excitement tothe space. So many Bitcoin has outperformed38900:26:12,680 --> 00:26:18,000almost all the all coins during thisperiod because the focus has been on bitcoins39000:26:18,079 --> 00:26:22,480specifically. Um Also, you broughtup and I wasn't even aware of it,39100:26:22,519 --> 00:26:26,759the Fidelity and uh Schuab creating anexchange right for a bitcoin. Is39200:26:26,799 --> 00:26:34,759it just bitcoin or is it affectones that are not considered securities? Well,39300:26:34,799 --> 00:26:37,400there's not many. I think it'sonly there's four. There's bitcoin,39400:26:37,759 --> 00:26:42,240Etherium, light coin, or litcoin, and then there's a fourth, fourth39500:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,640one. I can't think what thefourth one is, but but it would39600:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,880be just trading those four, okay, and that's the big deal. Because39700:26:48,880 --> 00:26:52,759for example, Ripple it has alawsuit with sec right now, that's another39800:26:52,759 --> 00:26:56,880all coin, but they're they're tryingto see how they're not a security.39900:26:56,079 --> 00:26:59,839Right, many of these all coinsare going to be classified as securities.40000:27:00,079 --> 00:27:03,359Says stocks are you have a stockoffering, you have to go through sec40100:27:03,519 --> 00:27:06,839you have to go through all thatjargon. This is going to be a40200:27:06,839 --> 00:27:10,640lot different. And so that spotETF is a huge deal. And and40300:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,119it makes sense why bitcoin's running uphere also with twenty twenty four approaching,40400:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,119that's when the next having of bitcoinhappens. That always sparks your raality,40500:27:18,319 --> 00:27:22,359or at least has in previous erasof bitcoins. So it's gonna be interesting.40600:27:22,599 --> 00:27:26,960But I think, like all ofrisk related assets right now, there's40700:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,920still a lot of room to godown. Yeah, it's interesting because a40800:27:30,960 --> 00:27:34,200lot of people are interested in it, but almost no one trusted. Yeah,40900:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,880because it's China. We talked alittle bit about China. The economy41000:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,960there continues to slow down. Centralgovernment actually cut rates this past weekend,41100:27:42,000 --> 00:27:48,240which is generally the precursor to somestimulus. Exports have been dropping, with41200:27:48,359 --> 00:27:53,640US companies looking for other places tobuy goods and rightfully. So. Also,41300:27:53,720 --> 00:27:59,039the Chinese have a huge real estatebubble, and that real estate bubble41400:27:59,319 --> 00:28:03,799is strange, training and straining,and who knows. It's fascinating why that41500:28:03,839 --> 00:28:08,559bubble is too. If you reallydig into the demographics and the cultural it's41600:28:10,079 --> 00:28:14,799it's something that's almost unavoidable. Andnot to mention their population decreasing, that's41700:28:14,799 --> 00:28:19,599going to continue to increase over thenext couple of decades. Their one child41800:28:19,640 --> 00:28:25,559policy really bit them in the bus, and their labor forces dramatically getting hurt41900:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,480right now, it hurt and alsothe young Chinese. The unemployment rate amongst42000:28:29,519 --> 00:28:33,480Chinese under twenty years of age istwenty percent, and much of it is42100:28:33,519 --> 00:28:36,400voluntarily. They're just not going tobuy it. They're just not going to42200:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,200put on the gray suit and goto the factory and stand there eight hours42300:28:40,200 --> 00:28:41,960a day, ten hours a day, day after day. So they've got42400:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,400some cultural changes going on there too. But I said last week, I42500:28:45,400 --> 00:28:52,400think the probably the where they're themost vulnerable is chief labor. And if42600:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,640you find labor elsewhere, whether itbe Vietnam or Laos or Mexico, that42700:28:56,640 --> 00:29:02,160can compete with China, they're veryIt's funny you bring that up. There's42800:29:02,200 --> 00:29:06,119a company today that I was lookinginto, PDD, which is Pinduo Duo,42900:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,559and they had a lassuit, nota lawsuit, but an article come43000:29:08,559 --> 00:29:14,079out against them, claiming that they'reusing forced labor and UM in China the43100:29:14,079 --> 00:29:17,559same way that Adidas and Nike didUM. If people aren't familiar, in43200:29:17,599 --> 00:29:19,720twenty twenty one, there's an actthat was passing, you know, can't43300:29:19,759 --> 00:29:22,440do that. Don't use forced labor. It's it's not a good thing.43400:29:22,680 --> 00:29:26,400And so they were kind of foundto be doing that and it's sent the43500:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,880stock down five percent on the day. So forced labor and the general version43600:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,079of labor in China two different things. Obviously, I think this might be43700:29:34,079 --> 00:29:37,759a good spot for a fun fact. Okay, you want a fun fact,43800:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,680sure, Okay, So that's thefortune. Five hundred put out their43900:29:41,680 --> 00:29:47,920list of companies for twenty twenty twofinally and what state twenty yeah, twenty44000:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,039twenty two last year because they didjust now at the end of the year.44100:29:51,279 --> 00:29:53,440Uh, they then calculations, no, it's a it's a bit of44200:29:53,440 --> 00:29:59,200a project um and they released itand what state do you think has the44300:29:59,279 --> 00:30:03,839most fortunate in five hundred companies?Uh, Texas, Jolix, You're my44400:30:03,839 --> 00:30:04,640favorite, didn't you? Yeah,yeah, you did. Now, I44500:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,480would never come up with Texas.I would have never come up with Texas.44600:30:07,480 --> 00:30:14,319I would have California and New YorkTexas maybe Texas Texas taxes I'm saying,44700:30:14,359 --> 00:30:17,720oh no, but I understand,techa. But Texas is has the44800:30:17,720 --> 00:30:22,640most fortune five hundred companies fifty astate in the United States to put headquarter44900:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,319your business from a tax point ofview, where would you picture? And45000:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,400that's that's a good point. Butfor you know, California and New York45100:30:29,440 --> 00:30:36,319typically are the big states where theyhave the population and the entrepreneurial state Texas,45200:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,319but Texas is the leader. NowCalifornia very close behind them at fifty45300:30:40,400 --> 00:30:44,960three companies out of the out ofthe five hundred, New York again very45400:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,440close, fifty companies, and thenit drops off pretty quickly Illinois, which45500:30:48,519 --> 00:30:52,319is not a surprise if you thought, Okay, Texas and California and Illinois45600:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,640and New York are off the table. Who would be fourth? Maybe Florida45700:30:56,240 --> 00:31:00,559Illinois, But no, Florida wasn'teven in the top in the list.45800:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,559Number five tie between Ohio and Virginia. I think Arizona is going to make45900:31:06,119 --> 00:31:08,720make that list in the next decade. We'll have to see it. It's46000:31:08,759 --> 00:31:14,000certainly certainly moving in the right direction. It seems like we have the world's46100:31:14,240 --> 00:31:18,279not the worlds, but the nation'slargest foreign investment in the history, largest46200:31:18,279 --> 00:31:22,519ever. Might wake somebody up.But the other side is if we wake46300:31:22,599 --> 00:31:26,039that list, and how many morepeople are gonna come here and how much46400:31:26,079 --> 00:31:27,559water are we not going to have? Yeah, but we also talked about46500:31:27,599 --> 00:31:32,160like the Mexican labor force is somuch better than Chinese in terms of cost46600:31:32,279 --> 00:31:36,000productivity. The only thing that's keepingus from really going over there is the46700:31:36,039 --> 00:31:38,400cost to move the supply chain right, And once we start doing that,46800:31:38,440 --> 00:31:44,799I think there's so many more thingsthat can really make our economy go to46900:31:44,799 --> 00:31:48,240the next level and not be dependenton someone, you know, halfway across47000:31:48,279 --> 00:31:49,880the world. We may not evenhave to go to Mexico. They seem47100:31:49,920 --> 00:31:56,440to be coming to us student loans, right, do you have any student47200:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,720loans? Side? I don't haveany student loans, But that's gonna be47300:31:59,759 --> 00:32:02,079a fascinating thing when that starts totry you get by with no student loans,47400:32:02,079 --> 00:32:07,079you just really smart and gut scholarships. Yeah, I did get scholarships.47500:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,559That surprised anyway, student law.It's official after a three year hiatus.47600:32:10,680 --> 00:32:15,640Three years, there hasn't been anyinterest to cruing. Nobody's been making47700:32:15,640 --> 00:32:20,039any payments. Wow. Yeah.And I mean if you just think about,47800:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,759like I think I saw this stateight percent of people's disposal income normally47900:32:22,759 --> 00:32:28,359goes to student loans. Think aboutthat, right, that has not been48000:32:28,359 --> 00:32:30,720around for the last three years.Now you turn that on in a time48100:32:30,720 --> 00:32:37,039where we've just seen that the excesssavings from the pandemic is completely gone by48200:32:37,039 --> 00:32:38,680the end of the year. Isay, that's what Bank of Americas is48300:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,640coming out with. And when thatexcess savings is gone, well, now48400:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,559we're just back to square one wherewe were before the pandemic. And we48500:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,599all knew most people couldn't even afforda four hundred dollars emergency bill before the48600:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,400pandemic, right. Obviously, whenthe stimulus came, a lot of people48700:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,720patted their stats, their savings accounts. I mean, and that helped a48800:32:54,759 --> 00:32:58,400lot of people get by. Butthat's gone, right, and now you're48900:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,960increasing your spend with the student loans, right, so you have to come49000:33:01,039 --> 00:33:06,279back somewhere who's getting cut back?Look out for those discretionary stocks, right49100:33:06,480 --> 00:33:10,319right. And we talked about Targetbeing one of the most vulnerable i've last49200:33:10,319 --> 00:33:15,079week. I said, but whywould Walmart and Costco not be vulnerable too?49300:33:15,079 --> 00:33:21,680And Dylan explained that people of thatdemographic are drawn to Target, so49400:33:21,839 --> 00:33:28,000Target is more vulnerable than than aWalmart. Tesla shares up fifty percent in49500:33:28,039 --> 00:33:34,119the last thirty days and that promptedBarclays to downgrade the stock and urge profit49600:33:34,160 --> 00:33:38,240taking. And Morgan Stanley followed thenext and said, it's treat to see49700:33:38,240 --> 00:33:42,680too many of those reports. No, that's at least that's a fair analyst.49800:33:42,960 --> 00:33:44,920It is. It's rare to seean analyst come and say, you49900:33:44,960 --> 00:33:45,920know, you need to sell someof this. Yeah, it's ridiculous.50000:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,160It's very rare. It is rare, especially with the stock as popular as50100:33:50,160 --> 00:33:57,240Tesla. Speaking of what speaking ofTesla electric vehicle installations, of the report50200:33:57,279 --> 00:34:02,599that came out on Friday called thetwenty twenty three US Distributed Energy Resource Outlook50300:34:02,759 --> 00:34:10,480right for that, they're saying EVcharger installation capacity is going to overtake roughtop50400:34:10,519 --> 00:34:16,000solar this year. There was theamount of energy that's going to be used50500:34:16,039 --> 00:34:23,159for EV chargers is going to begreater than the savings from the solar panels.50600:34:23,199 --> 00:34:25,960All the solar panels in the countryif you think about how many solar50700:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,360panels are in the country versus howmany EV chargers there are. Obviously,50800:34:30,400 --> 00:34:34,480the ev charging business is growing byleafs and botts, and I want to50900:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,480talk about that in the next segmentbecause I've got a piece on that as51000:34:37,480 --> 00:34:42,280really is I find really puzzling,but I think I solve the puzzle,51100:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,960Dave, I hope you did.But anyway, installation is a big deal.51200:34:49,199 --> 00:34:52,440We talked last week about how everybody'sbeen able to figure out how to51300:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,480make an electric car. There aren'ta lot of companies that don't have an51400:34:55,480 --> 00:35:01,159electric car out there. And theone thing that that they have lagged in51500:35:01,559 --> 00:35:07,800or that nobody thought about or isuh is something that just is an afterthought,51600:35:08,079 --> 00:35:12,599was how do we charge all ofthese electric vehicles? And so we51700:35:12,719 --> 00:35:16,000talked about that to some extent lastweek, and how Tesla has really taken51800:35:16,039 --> 00:35:21,000over that market and to the pointwhere they actually had what do they use51900:35:21,079 --> 00:35:22,960you know, Tesla No, Imean that the power of their energy the52000:35:23,039 --> 00:35:28,840power of their Yeah. Yeah,there's three levels of chargers, the Tesla52100:35:29,199 --> 00:35:35,440powering them DC DC instead of ACfrom where you know, where does the52200:35:35,519 --> 00:35:38,559energy come from from the electric grid? Okay, but that's your good runs52300:35:38,559 --> 00:35:43,519on predominantly fossil fuels. Well,no, I get that. I get52400:35:43,559 --> 00:35:46,400that. And it's less and lessfossil fuels each year. We're moving towards52500:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,320solar, we're moving towards wind.Is that the perfect solution? No?52600:35:50,599 --> 00:35:52,880Is it a part of the solution. Yes. Anyway, Well, we've52700:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,000got a break coming up. We'llbe back right out of this break.52800:35:55,079 --> 00:35:58,559I want to talk a little bitmore about this. Thanks for listening,52900:36:06,159 --> 00:36:08,239Welcome back. This is the MoneyMatters Show. You've got Todd good Jr.53000:36:08,320 --> 00:36:13,239You've got Dave Sherwood. The Greenbergsare out having fun. And we53100:36:13,320 --> 00:36:17,920talked in the last segment about theincrease in charging stations for electric vehicles,53200:36:17,960 --> 00:36:23,079which is natural. And there's alot of analysts who decided a couple of53300:36:23,159 --> 00:36:29,039years ago, being very having alot of foresight, that boy, a53400:36:29,119 --> 00:36:32,440place to have money is going tobe in these companies that are putting up53500:36:32,480 --> 00:36:37,760all of these charging stations. AndI thought the same thing, and charge53600:36:37,760 --> 00:36:43,360Point is the biggest ev GOO asanother big one. And these stocks now53700:36:43,360 --> 00:36:47,639that electric vehicles in twenty twenty toddwere four percent of all sales. Last53800:36:47,679 --> 00:36:51,800year, they were fourteen percent ofall sales. This year is going to53900:36:51,840 --> 00:36:57,000be eighteen percent, projected to betwenty five percent next year of all sales.54000:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,960The charger charging companies What a placeto have money, right, these54100:37:01,000 --> 00:37:07,079two companies, the two largest chargingcompanies, hitting new all time lows this54200:37:07,199 --> 00:37:13,960last week. Why why were theybetting all time lows when the electric vehicle54300:37:13,960 --> 00:37:20,320market is exploding? Got a coupleof answers. Number One, they are54400:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,599in the buildout phase. And whenyou're in the buildout phase, you're spending54500:37:22,639 --> 00:37:25,880a lot of money to add thesecharging stations, and they're not cheap,54600:37:27,320 --> 00:37:32,159and you're not getting much revenue fromthe charging stations. I think probably the54700:37:32,239 --> 00:37:37,400second reason, and something that alot of these analysts didn't think about going54800:37:37,480 --> 00:37:43,360in, was that most of thesestations are level two chargers. Now level54900:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,760two charge. There's three levels ofcharging. Number one, plug it into55000:37:45,800 --> 00:37:52,000the wall. Number two, havea charger that will get you ten,55100:37:52,159 --> 00:37:55,639ten, fifteen miles an hour morecharge Level three, which is the Tesla.55200:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,920They can charge the whole thing infifteen minutes. So Level two is55300:38:00,079 --> 00:38:02,239what you would have in your home. It would charge your car overnight if55400:38:02,239 --> 00:38:07,159you had a three USA three hundredmile capacity and you got I'm trying to55500:38:07,159 --> 00:38:08,920think what the numbers about twenty fivemiles for every hour it's plugged in.55600:38:09,119 --> 00:38:13,119Twenty five to forty, I believeis the number. So you plug in55700:38:13,199 --> 00:38:15,119overnight and you wake up in themorning, your car's one hundred percent charge55800:38:16,559 --> 00:38:20,079Level three, which is what youwant to have if you're out on the55900:38:20,159 --> 00:38:23,440road. So these two charging companies, charge Points and ev Go are putting56000:38:23,519 --> 00:38:28,840up primarily level two chargers, andI want to thank Ron Lance for pointing56100:38:28,920 --> 00:38:32,159this out to me. And whenyou're out on the road traveling from Tusson56200:38:32,239 --> 00:38:36,599to San Diego, let's say,or Tusson to Albuquerque, a level two56300:38:36,679 --> 00:38:39,519charger doesn't do you any good.It's worthless. You don't have that kind56400:38:39,519 --> 00:38:44,159of time. You don't have threeor four or five hours to set there.56500:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,960So a level two charger is usedin your home. Now, you're56600:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,920not going to go to charge Pointor evy Go to get a level two56700:38:51,960 --> 00:38:57,079charger for your home. So whereare these people where are these companies going56800:38:57,159 --> 00:39:04,639to get revenue? And I thinkthe answer is banks of chargers at let's56900:39:04,639 --> 00:39:10,480say, car dealerships, hospitals,schools, places of work. I think57000:39:10,559 --> 00:39:15,519primarily is where they'll be used.But most people are going to charge at57100:39:15,559 --> 00:39:22,440home. So having charging stations aroundtown at these various locations I don't see57200:39:22,440 --> 00:39:28,320as that meaningful. Frankly, whereyou want the charging presence is out on57300:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,719the freeway and the only people thathave that are Tesla. They're the only57400:39:31,800 --> 00:39:38,480people to have that. So thatmay explain why a last quarter, Ford57500:39:38,599 --> 00:39:45,360sold one hundred and eighty thousand electricvehicles and Tesla sold ten times that.57600:39:45,639 --> 00:39:52,159Because if you're going to use yourcar electric car in town, strictly in57700:39:52,199 --> 00:39:54,519town, any electric car will do. You'll be fine. You're charging in57800:39:54,519 --> 00:39:58,760your garage, it doesn't matter,right, But if you're going to take57900:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,400your car out on the high way, even to Phoenix. If you if58000:40:01,400 --> 00:40:07,599you took a car to Phoenix that'snot compatible with the Tesla charger, you're58100:40:07,639 --> 00:40:10,480going to set in Phoenix for three, four or five hours to recharge that58200:40:10,559 --> 00:40:15,800car to get back to Tucson.It's insane that these companies have all figured58300:40:15,840 --> 00:40:21,280out how to make these electric carcompanies, but nobody's given much thought to58400:40:21,360 --> 00:40:25,159how you're going to charge the darnthings. So I'm having a hard time58500:40:25,239 --> 00:40:30,039figuring out how charge Point an evgo are gonna be big companies. And58600:40:30,400 --> 00:40:35,280we do see analysts recommending them.A number of analysts have recommending them,58700:40:35,320 --> 00:40:39,320and I wonder if they really knowwhat's going on out there. Yeah,58800:40:39,400 --> 00:40:44,400and I continue to say, asmuch as evs are really cool and I58900:40:44,440 --> 00:40:49,400do think they're the future, rightnow, predominantly they're still supplied with fossil59000:40:49,440 --> 00:40:53,280fuels. Just because you charge itwith electronic charger doesn't mean that electronic charger59100:40:53,280 --> 00:40:59,280isn't powered by a grid that ispowered by fossil fuels. So we still59200:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,400a long way to go to actuallymake a difference. Um, I think59300:41:01,400 --> 00:41:05,199a lot of this is just makingus feel good about ourselves. Well,59400:41:05,239 --> 00:41:09,800but but let me be a devil'sadvocate here. Is you're absolutely right the59500:41:09,840 --> 00:41:15,400electric power is by the fossil fuels, But is it is it then better59600:41:15,480 --> 00:41:21,440to have the car that's being receivingthe electricity which is out there anyway,59700:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,119the fossil fuels are going to beburning. The electricity is out there,59800:41:23,159 --> 00:41:27,519whether someone uses it or not,it's still is still there. Uh.59900:41:28,119 --> 00:41:31,599Is it better to have someone useit to then decrease the carbon emissions from60000:41:31,679 --> 00:41:36,119vehicles? The moth is a badthing. I don't think we're going to60100:41:36,199 --> 00:41:38,599get to fifty percent of all cars. Problem with that too is you also60200:41:38,639 --> 00:41:44,679think, Okay, well, there'slithium mining being done to make these ev60300:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,440cars. How good is that forthe environment. Oh, no question,60400:41:46,599 --> 00:41:50,800you know there's supply chains being doneto make these evs. How it's good60500:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,840that for an environment. It's not. It's not. It's not an end60600:41:52,880 --> 00:41:57,280all and end all be all right, But I think it's just I just60700:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,360think it's really easy to not thinkabout those things and only think about the60800:42:00,400 --> 00:42:06,079holy Grail, which is I hopeit gets to one day. I'm totally60900:42:06,079 --> 00:42:08,920here for a planet that isn't dependenton strictly fossil fields, right, Sure,61000:42:09,039 --> 00:42:13,559but it needs to be something thatis actually feasible. Yeah. No,61100:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,000I think I know you made goodpoints, and there are all points61200:42:15,039 --> 00:42:19,360we've made on this show. Andit's not a it's not a right wing61300:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,360issue. It's not a left wingissue. It's it's it's an economic It's61400:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,320an economic issue, and I thinkwhere where one of the things that people61500:42:25,320 --> 00:42:29,880who look at electric vehicles don't thinkabout is the economics of it. I61600:42:29,920 --> 00:42:34,519was looking at the other day andUM, a new uh Tesla Y model,61700:42:34,559 --> 00:42:38,400which is the suv versus a let'ssay, a Portione, a Porsche61800:42:38,480 --> 00:42:44,480Econ, which is a small Porschesuv. A Porsche is probably seven and61900:42:44,599 --> 00:42:49,199eight thousand dollars more expensive. Um, that Tesla gets a seventy five hundred62000:42:49,199 --> 00:42:52,719dollars tax credit, and then yousave twenty five hundred dollars a year in62100:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,760gas and oil changes. Yeah.So if you don't think about if you62200:42:55,840 --> 00:43:00,000if you think about it as aneconomic decision, it really becomes a whole62300:43:00,000 --> 00:43:04,519different story. Yeah, it reallydid. Um I wanted too. So62400:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,039you have a Tesla. Pardon aslong as you have a Tesla right now,62500:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,639right now, if you're if you'reyou know, if you're gonna be62600:43:09,639 --> 00:43:15,000around town and not leave town,it doesn't matter. Yeah, it doesn't62700:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,119matter. But but for now,and and we said, well, Ford62800:43:17,159 --> 00:43:22,360ink to deal with Tesla. Fordand GM and al Rivian and who else62900:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,000is coming on? I think therewill be others everybody wants to use the63000:43:25,039 --> 00:43:30,239Tesla charging stations, and maybe that'swhy Tesla stock has been so strong,63100:43:30,280 --> 00:43:34,320because maybe there's a gas station ofthe future. Imagine if every electric car63200:43:34,360 --> 00:43:39,639company uses just Tesla chargers, that'sgot to be really a positive revenue stream63300:43:39,719 --> 00:43:44,679for Tesla. You said it wastwenty five percent of sales by Win Dick63400:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,679year. So even with that,I mean, you're gonna eventually you have63500:43:47,719 --> 00:43:51,760to get to one hundred percent ofsales being ev right, you don't think63600:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,360that will ever happen, but youhave to catch up to as many of63700:43:54,639 --> 00:43:57,880gas vehicles that are out there,right, I mean, if you took63800:43:57,920 --> 00:44:01,639the actual right now, the currenthow many electric cars are out there compared63900:44:01,679 --> 00:44:06,639to gas because gas has been doingfor what sure? Right? Sure,64000:44:06,679 --> 00:44:09,559I mean it's probably one two,right, And I think you have to64100:44:09,719 --> 00:44:15,599you have to answer the question,is it is it better to have twenty64200:44:15,639 --> 00:44:19,280percent of the cars be electric oris it better to have no cars be64300:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,320electric? If you if you we'regonna have we're gonna have twenty percent.64400:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,719To get to twenty percent, yougot to sell a lot more electric vehicles.64500:44:27,199 --> 00:44:30,119No, but they're gonna be attwenty percent next year. No,64600:44:30,199 --> 00:44:34,639that'll be of that year's sales though, Dave, I'm saying the actual les64700:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,079in the world. Oh yeah,that's what I get it. I get64800:44:37,119 --> 00:44:40,760No, I get one hund percent. But and and Biden's idea that we'll64900:44:40,800 --> 00:44:45,000have fifty percent by twenty thirty,that's not gonna happen. Um. I65000:44:45,119 --> 00:44:47,559say you have sales, they say, with some comp maybe maybe of sale,65100:44:47,800 --> 00:44:52,239not overall. Yeah, it's possible. But and I've said before on65200:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,760the show, eventually we're gonna getto a point where everybody that wants and65300:44:54,920 --> 00:44:59,480can afford an electric vehicle as one. That's a great point too. I65400:44:59,519 --> 00:45:00,679mean, you know, there's alot of people out there they want to65500:45:00,679 --> 00:45:02,639buy a house right now, right, Dave, Right, and they can't65600:45:02,679 --> 00:45:06,119afford it and afford it, youknow. And there's there's a lot of65700:45:06,119 --> 00:45:07,840people that would like to have anelectric car that can't even begin to think65800:45:07,840 --> 00:45:12,320about it right because it's just toocostly. Or we're gonna get to a65900:45:12,320 --> 00:45:17,039point where I noticed Toyota signed onto an agreement last week to do more66000:45:17,119 --> 00:45:21,119electric. They've been kind of holdingout, thinking that hybrid is the way66100:45:21,119 --> 00:45:23,280to go. They signed I lovetheir Prius commercial. Have you seen it?66200:45:23,599 --> 00:45:28,519I know they have a black Priusdriving against a crowd of sheep and66300:45:28,559 --> 00:45:30,320all the sheep are going, ohyeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,66400:45:30,519 --> 00:45:36,360the Prius. It's it's rebellious nowlike Freeze used to be the echo and66500:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,239the yeah, you know, thegreen car, and now it's hybrid,66600:45:38,360 --> 00:45:43,760so it's not really it's not reallycool anymore. And then that there are66700:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,880political ramifications to any of this isjust hilarious surprising to me. I had66800:45:47,920 --> 00:45:51,760someone the other day I was talkingabout, oh, are you gonna get66900:45:51,760 --> 00:45:53,199electric car? And I said,I said, why? Said? I67000:45:53,239 --> 00:45:57,239didn't really like you were a lefty, right, I mean, come on,67100:45:57,360 --> 00:46:02,000I mean there is no associated withthere shouldn't be at least I mean,67200:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,440put your money with your mouth is. Don't get me wrong, you67300:46:05,440 --> 00:46:07,119know what I mean. We sawwhat happened with bud Light, We're seeing67400:46:07,119 --> 00:46:10,800what happened is happening with Target.I mean, if a certain company rubs67500:46:10,840 --> 00:46:15,800you the wrong way, sure boycottthem. And now Starbucks. You're just67600:46:15,800 --> 00:46:20,119seeing Friday where Starbucks is going tohave a strike that's going to close down67700:46:20,239 --> 00:46:25,440union the hundreds of stores because theywon't allow the employees to decorate for for67800:46:25,559 --> 00:46:30,800gay Pride. But also heard Pritarbucksdoesn't get to decide what happens in each67900:46:30,840 --> 00:46:34,000one of their stores. It's likea fan franchise e thing. So each68000:46:34,039 --> 00:46:36,639general manager gets to decide what happensin each one of them. I mean68100:46:36,639 --> 00:46:42,719Target gets boycotted because they decorate forGay month or Pride month more than that.68200:46:43,000 --> 00:46:45,760Yeah, well, no, it'sthe same though they've got it's not.68300:46:45,159 --> 00:46:49,039It's not like Starbucks is coming outwith a gay pride coffee. Okay,68400:46:49,199 --> 00:46:54,039now, it came out with aproduct that was designed for transsexuals and68500:46:54,079 --> 00:46:58,960homosexuals, as did Macy's, asjust coals, as have others and white68600:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,119Target and if you and now,if you don't celebrate it, you're gonna68700:47:02,119 --> 00:47:06,880get blaycotted. Is like half ofus are gonna be unhappy about whatever they68800:47:06,920 --> 00:47:07,760do. Well, at the endof the day, you should put your68900:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,039money with your mouth because I'm afull supporter. And if you don't believe69000:47:10,079 --> 00:47:13,519in something, don't put your moneythere. And all Targets try how you69100:47:13,599 --> 00:47:16,199vote and what so Starbrooks saying ishey, we just don't get involved,69200:47:16,239 --> 00:47:20,239and there's it's not acceptable leader,you know, it's like, Wow,69300:47:21,000 --> 00:47:22,960at the end of the day,you gotta put your money where where you69400:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,840believe your values are. Yeah,right, well that's a that's a trick69500:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,519fil A does, and everybody lovedthem, and now they've got a diversity69600:47:29,559 --> 00:47:31,960department. They're getting hit up forthat. We'll be back after this break.69700:47:32,039 --> 00:47:36,559Lead that break coming up. Weappreciate you being with us on this69800:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,719hot it's gonna be hot. Onehundred, eight hundred and ten, one69900:47:38,760 --> 00:47:43,000hundred eleven. Yeah, well we'vebeen uh you know it's not Phoenix Ode.70000:47:43,039 --> 00:47:45,159That's the good news. Uh,take it where you can get it.70100:47:45,199 --> 00:47:47,800We'll thank you for us. Thenwe'll be back right after this break.70200:47:53,760 --> 00:47:57,320Welcome back to the Money Matters Show. My name is Todd Click,70300:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,760I'm here with Dave Sherwood and anotherfun week in the markets. Unfortunately it70400:48:00,800 --> 00:48:06,119wasn't up though. We snapped afive week winning streak for the SMP five70500:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,760hundred and nine weeks for the NASDACSnine weeks. Yeah, finally had a70600:48:09,800 --> 00:48:13,800down week. DAW was down onepoint seven percent on the week, SMP70700:48:14,039 --> 00:48:16,920one point four, NASDAC was downone point four as well. Russell two70800:48:16,960 --> 00:48:21,880thousand down three percent, and theequal weighted down two point eight percent.70900:48:22,480 --> 00:48:27,960We talked about early in the show, largely due to some comments by Federal71000:48:28,760 --> 00:48:34,079Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powis he testifiedto Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. The71100:48:34,159 --> 00:48:37,119market really probably was just looking fora reason to take some profits, and71200:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,920they did just that. But Ihave a really interesting little tidbit about food,71300:48:42,119 --> 00:48:45,840because we all know that there's alot of people on this earth,71400:48:45,000 --> 00:48:50,639right seven point five billion according tothe US Census in twenty nineteen. The71500:48:50,840 --> 00:48:54,800projections, their projections forecast nine pointseven billion on the planet by year twenty71600:48:54,840 --> 00:48:59,639fifty, not increasing at the samerate, not at all, but nine71700:48:59,639 --> 00:49:01,800points it's a lot of people.That means thirty eight percent more people will71800:49:01,800 --> 00:49:05,119need to be fed off the sameamount of land than we currently have.71900:49:05,199 --> 00:49:08,400Why because, Dave, if wethe land isn't not more land getting created72000:49:08,480 --> 00:49:12,480right now? No, I don'tknow if you noticed, Hai and in72100:49:12,480 --> 00:49:15,800Hawaii, well maybe the it's notfarm volcanoes. Yeah, it's not farmland.72200:49:16,079 --> 00:49:19,679So to meet the increase in demand, the food production will need to72300:49:19,679 --> 00:49:23,280be sixty percent higher by twenty fifty. The average American eats I want gonna72400:49:23,320 --> 00:49:27,440let you guess this one. Howmany pounds does the average American eat of72500:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,400food each year? How many poundsof food each year is the average American72600:49:30,400 --> 00:49:35,400eats? The average American eight andyou're figuring three meals a day. You're72700:49:35,400 --> 00:49:37,719gonna try to map this one out. Yeah, I'm gonna stay a thousand72800:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,360pounds pretty close. Two thousand pounds. Whoa, that's not even to half.72900:49:40,719 --> 00:49:45,400Well that's not called that was terrible. Yeah, well, I'll give73000:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,280you a wow. Two thousand pounds, one thousand pounds. And you know73100:49:47,360 --> 00:49:52,679what's even crazier. The United Statesthrows out nearly forty million tons of food73200:49:52,920 --> 00:49:58,199per year. The food waste isestimated to be between thirty to forty percent73300:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,760of the food supply. Say I'vebeen, I've been. Our waste could73400:50:00,800 --> 00:50:05,679feed the rest of the world.They are so fortunate to be in this73500:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,559country, and everyone says Canadians areso nice. They're right there with us.73600:50:08,559 --> 00:50:14,920They throughout thirty five million metric Now, why do I bring this up?73700:50:15,320 --> 00:50:20,679Fertilizer represents the biggest expense farmers have. The reason is they found that73800:50:20,800 --> 00:50:24,000just using one hundred and seventy sixpounds of nitrogen based fertilizer per acre has73900:50:24,039 --> 00:50:29,519been shown to increase yields by threehundred and forty two percent. That's a74000:50:29,599 --> 00:50:32,360huge increase of yield for a farmer. And where does a lot of um74100:50:32,760 --> 00:50:37,000fertilizer come out of. Well,we learned from the Ukraine and Russia War74200:50:37,079 --> 00:50:39,719a lot comes out of Ukraine.So it makes sense why that's such a74300:50:39,719 --> 00:50:44,599hot spot. And there's so manycountries worried about that. Forty eight percent74400:50:44,599 --> 00:50:49,679of the world's population is dependent onnitrogen based fertilizers for access to food.74500:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,800Obviously that's going to increase by twentyfifty and that's why it could definitely be74600:50:53,840 --> 00:50:58,559a crisis in the making. What'shappening out there in Eastern Europe right now.74700:50:58,880 --> 00:51:01,159Um, it's something that needs tobe thought about as well as the74800:51:00,960 --> 00:51:07,639other fertilization producers throughout the world,because I mean, really, I mean74900:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,039we kind of take for granted howmuch food we produce each year, how75000:51:10,119 --> 00:51:14,119much food we consume, how manypeople they are out there in the world,75100:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,960and if you can't feed them,that's where society breaks down, right,75200:51:19,119 --> 00:51:22,119that's actually makes really are scary.So I just thought that was interesting75300:51:22,119 --> 00:51:24,280to thank you you guys, youand Dylan have been seeing a lot of75400:51:24,280 --> 00:51:28,440people. They've been coming and doingthe financial plans, doing the reviews.75500:51:29,599 --> 00:51:32,679Kind of brought to mind yesterday.I had a meeting yesterday on Friday.75600:51:32,880 --> 00:51:38,920I'm sorry with a prospective client ofListener and U. And if you're going75700:51:38,960 --> 00:51:42,639to recognize who you are, andI'm not using your name or anything so75800:51:42,719 --> 00:51:46,079no one can get to you,son't be embarrassed. This particular person was75900:51:46,119 --> 00:51:50,400at a point of trends. Andthe only reason I'm going into this is76000:51:50,440 --> 00:51:54,079because we talk all the time abouthow we're really not salespeople here. We're76100:51:54,079 --> 00:51:59,760really here to help in any waywe can. This particular individual is is76200:51:59,800 --> 00:52:04,679that transition point in his life.He has left his previous job. He's76300:52:04,719 --> 00:52:07,360in his early sixties. He's notold enough to get Social Security yet,76400:52:07,400 --> 00:52:12,119unless he wants to close the dooron other employment. Right, if you76500:52:12,199 --> 00:52:15,599go to the sixty three, thenyou're you can't make over twenty around twenty76600:52:15,599 --> 00:52:17,639grand is it? You can startat sixty tea. So if you but76700:52:19,079 --> 00:52:23,280and he's transitioning to another job,he has some money he's inherited from his76800:52:23,400 --> 00:52:30,119mom. He has a couple ofof retirement accounts, and he was talking76900:52:30,159 --> 00:52:35,719about advice he had gotten from otheranother financial advisors here in town, and77000:52:36,239 --> 00:52:42,639that that advice was to put thewhole thing into this immediate annuity, which77100:52:42,760 --> 00:52:49,480essentially pays out the highest possible rateof interest you can receive is an immediate77200:52:49,519 --> 00:52:55,159annuity, because you are giving theprinciple to the insurance company period you're done77300:52:55,880 --> 00:53:00,519so and I thought to myself,this is interesting, and I said to77400:53:00,599 --> 00:53:04,440him, I said, that's along term solution, and you may end77500:53:04,519 --> 00:53:07,079up going down that road at somepoint, but you're in a period of77600:53:07,119 --> 00:53:12,760transition right now where you have noidea what the next three four five years77700:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,519are going to look like, andnot even the next three to six months77800:53:15,559 --> 00:53:20,119are going to look like. Youneed to have all of the capital that77900:53:20,199 --> 00:53:23,880you have available in the world liquidright now. You're not in a position78000:53:23,920 --> 00:53:28,440where you can take a ten,fifteen, twenty percent hit in the stock78100:53:28,480 --> 00:53:31,039market. You're not in a positionwhere you want to be locking everything up.78200:53:31,679 --> 00:53:37,400You're in a position where you shouldhave one hundred percent of the money78300:53:37,519 --> 00:53:42,159your mom's inheritance is in I think, he said, wells Fargo camp paying78400:53:42,199 --> 00:53:45,679three and a half percent that's fine. That's fine. You want to move78500:53:45,679 --> 00:53:49,119it to vanguardy that they're paying fiveon their money market fund, it's fine,78600:53:49,280 --> 00:53:54,440but don't put that into an immediateannuity. Don't solve a long term78700:53:54,480 --> 00:53:59,320a short term problem with a longterm solution. And my answer to him78800:53:59,440 --> 00:54:05,480is is do nothing. Leave itlike it is, get through your period78900:54:05,519 --> 00:54:09,639of transition, come in two tothree years and see me again. And79000:54:09,719 --> 00:54:15,480he was absolutely shocked that I wasnot going to sell him anything. I79100:54:15,519 --> 00:54:19,480remember a guy from came down fromPhoenix, so listen to the show.79200:54:20,360 --> 00:54:24,400He had a managed to count inPhoenix that was worth somewhere in the mid79300:54:24,800 --> 00:54:30,519seven figures, and he wanted asecond opinion, and so he dropped all79400:54:30,519 --> 00:54:32,559the statements off. And I spentsome time with them over the next few79500:54:32,639 --> 00:54:37,960days, and we got together thenext the following week, and I said,79600:54:37,079 --> 00:54:40,880I've looked at everything that you've beendoing with the people in Phoenix,79700:54:42,239 --> 00:54:45,880and I would do nothing different.They're doing a great job. He goes79800:54:45,960 --> 00:54:51,239what what I said. He yearnedme, I can't do anything. I79900:54:51,239 --> 00:54:54,400can't do any better. I can'thelp you. They're doing everything that I80000:54:54,480 --> 00:55:00,679would do, so I can't helpyou. Thank them for the they're doing80100:55:00,840 --> 00:55:04,920and stay with it. And that'sthe same with this guy met with last80200:55:04,960 --> 00:55:07,960week. Is I can't help you. If I can't help you, why80300:55:08,159 --> 00:55:15,079could I find some product that Icould dazzle you with? Absolutely sure,80400:55:15,320 --> 00:55:17,400of course I could. I've beendoing this forty years. I could find80500:55:17,400 --> 00:55:20,800something that would just make all thebells and whistles go off. It's not80600:55:20,840 --> 00:55:22,639the right thing to do right now. You're in a period of transition.80700:55:22,679 --> 00:55:28,679You need liquidity because you don't knowwhat's coming. There will be a period80800:55:28,719 --> 00:55:34,519of stability down the road somewhere.We can help. We can absolutely help,80900:55:34,920 --> 00:55:38,400but I don't want to give youlong term solutions to a short term81000:55:38,400 --> 00:55:43,960problem. And it's very easy todazzle people with these certain annuities because they81100:55:44,320 --> 00:55:46,960have so many bells and whistles,right, And it's so easy to get81200:55:46,960 --> 00:55:50,559confused with all the bells and whistlesand just say, hey, this must81300:55:50,559 --> 00:55:52,119be so good. I just needto have trust in him. And I81400:55:52,119 --> 00:55:54,800think that's so important because we seea lot of people come in with plans81500:55:55,000 --> 00:56:00,159and they'll have a couple of annuitiesand they just seem almost like, what81600:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,679was the plan here? Right,like, was this going to be with81700:56:02,679 --> 00:56:06,880this? And it's like, theytake one hundred thousand, and I'm going81800:56:06,960 --> 00:56:09,440to use this for income, andthere's really no plan on how you're going81900:56:09,480 --> 00:56:14,119to get the rest of your incomein retirement. There's it's just okay,82000:56:14,199 --> 00:56:16,119I need some safety here and Iwant to get into it right away.82100:56:16,519 --> 00:56:21,920And then and then the thing thatso many people fail to realize is the82200:56:21,960 --> 00:56:25,159surrender schedule. Sure, you're gettinglocked in. Once you make that decision,82300:56:25,920 --> 00:56:29,800you don't get to make another onefor a while. This guy was82400:56:29,840 --> 00:56:34,960smart enough to know that to readthe paperwork thoroughly enough that there's a nine82500:56:34,960 --> 00:56:38,119percent commission paid to the broker onthis immediate annuity, so two hundred thousand82600:56:38,119 --> 00:56:40,880and nine percent eighteen grand. Andhe said, no, he gets an82700:56:40,880 --> 00:56:45,280eighteen grand. And then what's hisincentive to pay any attention to me?82800:56:45,559 --> 00:56:51,679And the answer is none, there'szero. It's over. So be careful82900:56:51,679 --> 00:56:54,159out there. One of the thingsthat then this just kind of ties into83000:56:54,199 --> 00:56:58,000this time, and I was leadinginto it, and I wanted to talk83100:56:58,039 --> 00:57:00,400a little bit about it because again, it came up this week with a83200:57:00,519 --> 00:57:06,440prospect I was meeting with, andthat's those annuity bonuses that you hear advertised83300:57:06,440 --> 00:57:08,920a lot. This is not somethingthat I ever had to deal with in83400:57:09,000 --> 00:57:13,159my career. I've been doing thisfor forty years, and it's just been83500:57:13,239 --> 00:57:15,920the last half a dozen years thishas started to pop up where you're hearing83600:57:16,239 --> 00:57:21,400commercials where you can get an annuity. If you buy this annuity, you83700:57:21,440 --> 00:57:24,239get a ten percent bonus, atwenty percent bonus, a thirty percent bonus.83800:57:24,800 --> 00:57:28,719And to an individual, what's abonus. A bonus is money in83900:57:28,760 --> 00:57:32,760your pocket. But in this particularcase where you're talking about annuities, this84000:57:32,840 --> 00:57:36,760is not money in your pocket.I had a guy in a couple of84100:57:36,760 --> 00:57:40,159weeks ago and put one hundred thousanddollars into this annuity with a twenty percent84200:57:40,159 --> 00:57:43,159bonus, and he goes, whendo I get in my twenty grand?84300:57:44,000 --> 00:57:47,000I said, never is when youget your twenty grand. It's not real84400:57:47,159 --> 00:57:52,639money. It is a bonus onthe income side of the annuity. It84500:57:52,840 --> 00:57:58,320is only used to calculate how muchincome they're willing to pay you. And84600:57:58,559 --> 00:58:01,360much of the income they're willing topay you is your own money coming back84700:58:01,400 --> 00:58:05,480to you. Yeah. I meanif you started an annuity with one hundred84800:58:05,519 --> 00:58:08,480thousand dollars. Your income base isone hundred thousand dollars. Right, But84900:58:08,559 --> 00:58:14,239let's say you get an income bonusof ten percent. Well, now your85000:58:14,280 --> 00:58:16,840account still out one hundred thousand dollars, but your income base will be at85100:58:16,880 --> 00:58:20,760one hundred and ten thousand, right, ten percent of one hundred thousand.85200:58:21,519 --> 00:58:23,440That's your calculation. Now. Soif you're saying, okay, I want85300:58:23,440 --> 00:58:28,880to turn on my income and sayyour income factor is six percents, you're85400:58:28,880 --> 00:58:32,039getting six percent off whatever the valueof the income base is. You're not85500:58:32,079 --> 00:58:35,719getting six percent of one hundred thousand. You're getting six percent of one hundred85600:58:35,760 --> 00:58:38,000and ten. And that's an annualthing, right, It's coming off of85700:58:38,079 --> 00:58:43,440your hundred, and that's deducting yourprinciple of the hundred. You never once85800:58:43,480 --> 00:58:45,880got that bonus. On the actualaccount value side, there's two columns in85900:58:45,920 --> 00:58:50,800that annuity. When you have thatincome bonus, you have the income base86000:58:50,880 --> 00:58:53,559and you have the account value.The account values your real money. The86100:58:53,639 --> 00:58:59,719income base is a calculation that theannuity company uses to factor how much they're86200:58:59,760 --> 00:59:02,639going to Hey, you annually aremonthly guaranteed for life. We use the86300:59:02,760 --> 00:59:08,039term funny money somewhat derogatorily, butit really does describe what it is because86400:59:08,039 --> 00:59:13,760it's it's monopoly money. It's it'snot money you can go spend if you86500:59:13,840 --> 00:59:15,880get a twenty or thirty percent bonus. Let's say you put in one hundred86600:59:15,920 --> 00:59:19,559thousand and you get a twenty percentbonus, you are never going to get86700:59:19,559 --> 00:59:22,400the twenty thousand. I mean,essentially, what these annuity companies are trying86800:59:22,440 --> 00:59:25,079to do is just put a wholebunch of makeup on an immediate annuity.86900:59:25,239 --> 00:59:30,239Yeah, you know, because theyreally want you to give up full control87000:59:30,239 --> 00:59:35,400of your money eventually. It's justtaking them longer to obtain all the money87100:59:35,559 --> 00:59:38,239using this type of product compared tojust the immediate annuity if you do giving87200:59:38,239 --> 00:59:42,679it up right away. Right.The other thing I ran into this past87300:59:42,719 --> 00:59:46,480weekend meeting with a couple of people, a couple of prospects, is I87400:59:46,599 --> 00:59:52,280was reminded how little people know aboutwhat is in their four oh one k,87500:59:52,559 --> 00:59:55,360how it's invested you. And Iwould tell you now, if you're87600:59:55,400 --> 01:00:00,480listening to this radio show and youhave a four oh one K, please87701:00:00,639 --> 01:00:05,239look at the four oh one k, Please see what it has invested in87801:00:05,960 --> 01:00:10,159please understand what it's invested in.It may or may not be appropriate.87901:00:10,360 --> 01:00:15,880It may have been appropriate twenty yearsago, is not now. But so88001:00:16,000 --> 01:00:20,880often when I asked a question,what should invested in? Oh, I88101:00:20,880 --> 01:00:23,679think it stocks. I think it'sbonds. I think you know. A88201:00:23,760 --> 01:00:28,440guy came in the last week andI said, what do they have this88301:00:28,480 --> 01:00:30,280account invested in? He goes,Oh, it's real conservative, and I88401:00:30,280 --> 01:00:34,880looked at him. Was a bunchof international ETFs. I mean, there's88501:00:34,920 --> 01:00:38,679nothing conservative about that, right.The majority of people they get in there's88601:00:38,719 --> 01:00:43,039called a default investment, which meansif you started a four oh one K,88701:00:43,199 --> 01:00:45,599you're going to automatically be put intoa certain type of fund. That88801:00:45,639 --> 01:00:51,039fund is normally a target date fund. A target date fund is kind of88901:00:51,039 --> 01:00:53,639what it sounds like, it's yourretirement target date. So you know,89001:00:53,760 --> 01:01:00,199someone like me, they're going tohave a twenty sixty five target date fund,89101:01:00,519 --> 01:01:04,559right, because that's kind of whereI would retire. Twenty sixty five89201:01:04,679 --> 01:01:07,679is going to have a very aggressivemakeup, right, meaning it's going to89301:01:07,760 --> 01:01:09,960be predominantly stocks because it's for thelong run, Right, I got a89401:01:09,960 --> 01:01:14,599long time till retirement. They don'tcare if someone like my parents are going89501:01:14,639 --> 01:01:16,880to have something like a twenty fortytarget day fund, right, so they're89601:01:16,880 --> 01:01:21,480gonna have a little more bonds.They might have thirty percent bonds and seventy89701:01:21,480 --> 01:01:24,039percent stock. And then the peoplewho are retiring very soon, like those89801:01:24,039 --> 01:01:29,280twenty twenty five target day funds,those are going to be predominantly bonds,89901:01:29,639 --> 01:01:34,320right, maybe sixty percent bonds fortypercent stock. And so what you your90001:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,840default investment majority of the time inthese four one case, are these target90101:01:37,920 --> 01:01:43,199day funds, and they are rebalancedas you go throughout life. So my90201:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,800twenty sixty five really aggressive in twentyyears would be a little less aggressive,90301:01:46,800 --> 01:01:51,239and I wouldn't necessarily have to goin and change anything. But you should90401:01:51,239 --> 01:01:53,320still know what you're in, right, You should still go in and also90501:01:53,440 --> 01:01:57,719that target day fund, what's investedin that target day fund, what kind90601:01:57,719 --> 01:02:00,280of stocks are in that fund?What kind of bonds are in the fund?90701:02:00,360 --> 01:02:02,719Is it bond funds or actual bonds? And you can find that out90801:02:02,840 --> 01:02:07,960using something called morning Star. There'sother services out there where you just type90901:02:07,960 --> 01:02:09,960in the fund that you're invested in, and that will show you the holdings91001:02:10,000 --> 01:02:15,239of that fund, the target datefunds are very popular. And just to91101:02:15,280 --> 01:02:21,480clarify it, the further you arefrom retirements, the more equity exposure you91201:02:21,519 --> 01:02:24,599would have, and then as youthank you and as your near retirement,91301:02:24,599 --> 01:02:30,400it would become more bonds. SoTodd at age twenty two has you know,91401:02:30,840 --> 01:02:35,719fifty years to retirement, so he'sone hundred percent equities, hope not,91501:02:36,039 --> 01:02:42,360whereas Dave, who's five years pastretirement. Probably, So you're five91601:02:42,440 --> 01:02:45,679years passed, but I'm fifty years. That means I'm gonna be seventy two91701:02:45,719 --> 01:02:51,400when I retire. I'm seventy three. There you go, I guess I'm91801:02:51,400 --> 01:02:52,920not retiring. Hey, you wantproof, look in front of you.91901:02:53,079 --> 01:02:58,280Yeah, you got proof. Butthat is a good point. But it's92001:02:58,320 --> 01:03:00,880so often we don't know what wehave, and it's so often a one92101:03:00,920 --> 01:03:06,079decision type of thing, and youhave forgotten what decision that was, and92201:03:06,159 --> 01:03:08,519you're also paying money for that fund. Yes, there ain't no free lunch92301:03:08,519 --> 01:03:12,599in this business, right, soyou have to go that morning Star or92401:03:12,639 --> 01:03:15,840other services will show you what you'repaying for. And the thing you need92501:03:15,880 --> 01:03:19,719to be looking for is something calledan expense ratio. It's just like an92601:03:19,719 --> 01:03:22,079aum F and ass under management fee. It's what you're getting charged to be92701:03:22,119 --> 01:03:27,840invested in that fund per year.One thing we've discovered over the years the92801:03:28,000 --> 01:03:35,360target date funds tend to become tooconservative too early. That's been my experience92901:03:35,599 --> 01:03:37,199because they don't want to probably belive, they don't want to liability right.93001:03:37,320 --> 01:03:40,320Right, So if you're thinking I'mgoing to retire in twenty forty,93101:03:40,599 --> 01:03:45,800then you probably need a twenty fiftyor twenty sixty target date funds. That93201:03:45,840 --> 01:03:49,719doesn't mean it has to stay theretill then, it's just you don't want93301:03:49,800 --> 01:03:54,360you don't want to get so conservativeso early because bonds will underperform stocks over93401:03:54,679 --> 01:03:58,440almost any period of time you wantto pick. And we tell people this93501:03:58,559 --> 01:04:00,679all the time when they're thinking aboutmoving from the four one K to an93601:04:00,679 --> 01:04:05,000IRA, maybe an in service rolloverthe retiring and deciding should I keep my93701:04:05,039 --> 01:04:10,280four one k my old job ormoving into an IRA. There are different93801:04:10,280 --> 01:04:13,559costs, right, Like the fourO one K, it will be cheaper93901:04:14,119 --> 01:04:19,320overall to keep your money there onan annual basis compared to going with an94001:04:19,360 --> 01:04:25,599average money manager. Right, However, you're gonna you're comparing apples the largest94101:04:26,039 --> 01:04:30,119right because in foural one K youhave very select options and you have to94201:04:30,159 --> 01:04:34,719really make the decisions a money manager. You're paying them to make the decisions94301:04:34,800 --> 01:04:39,800so you don't have to have thestress. And the money manager has the94401:04:39,840 --> 01:04:44,400world of investments available to him.So that is you just can't compare the94501:04:44,440 --> 01:04:47,079two. And that's why the IRAside it will be more money. But94601:04:47,159 --> 01:04:50,559that's also because you're expecting a littlebit of return. Whether you get it94701:04:50,679 --> 01:04:54,639or not, that's you know,who knows. But that's the reason that94801:04:54,719 --> 01:04:59,159the relationship with the advisor, theongoing advice with the advisor, the stress94901:04:59,159 --> 01:05:00,880and knowing that I don't have toworry about it every single day, that's95001:05:00,880 --> 01:05:05,519what you're paying little extra for.So I always try to make people realize95101:05:05,679 --> 01:05:10,760four one ks are very cheap tokeep your money there. Right, normally95201:05:10,960 --> 01:05:15,079I will say absolutely. However,they're cheap for a reason sure, and95301:05:15,119 --> 01:05:16,920by their very nature, they haveto have a limited number of choices.95401:05:17,519 --> 01:05:24,039The company doesn't want to people tobe confused by too many choices. They95501:05:24,039 --> 01:05:27,199don't want to have to make toomany choices themselves. This is why the95601:05:27,679 --> 01:05:30,920target date funds have become so popular. Yeah, because the companies are basically95701:05:31,000 --> 01:05:32,639liable at the end of the day. Yeah, I mean you could.95801:05:32,880 --> 01:05:36,079As a company, you can throwin ten different choices and then thirty target95901:05:36,159 --> 01:05:40,599date funds and you're good. Yeah. Right, You've given everybody a plethora96001:05:40,599 --> 01:05:44,280of things to choose from. Didyou see Amazon shares have just been on96101:05:44,320 --> 01:05:46,320a chair lately? Yeah? Theywere up like what three percent this week?96201:05:46,400 --> 01:05:48,760Yeah, I have twenty seven percentin the last ninety days. And96301:05:48,800 --> 01:05:54,199that's where Bank of America decided thisis a good time to put it on96401:05:54,440 --> 01:06:00,800our US number one list after USgone up twenty seven percent in ninety days.96501:06:00,400 --> 01:06:05,400I'm always amazed at that, isthat stocks down fifty percent and you96601:06:05,480 --> 01:06:09,000decide, okay, I'm gonna Ithink I'm gonna change it to a cell96701:06:09,519 --> 01:06:12,280Right Where were you? Where wereyou all those points ago? Well,96801:06:12,280 --> 01:06:15,719since we just talked about four ohone k's, I had an interesting stat96901:06:15,760 --> 01:06:18,760from Vanguard in twenty twenty two.The total average contribution rate to four one97001:06:18,840 --> 01:06:25,800K plans was eleven point three percentof pay. That's including any company match.97101:06:26,159 --> 01:06:30,840That's just shy of the twelve tofifteen percent of Vanguard recommends workers suck97201:06:30,840 --> 01:06:32,400away for retirements. So there yougo. Pretty good. Warding the vanguard,97301:06:32,400 --> 01:06:36,760you should do twelve to fifteen percentincluding the employer's match. Yeah,97401:06:36,880 --> 01:06:41,199that's pretty good. Yeah, it'snot bad, however, Well not however.97501:06:41,280 --> 01:06:45,800But continuing, the interesting thing isthis auto escalation feature, and that's97601:06:45,840 --> 01:06:49,639why they say a lot of theseworkers are putting more away into their four97701:06:49,760 --> 01:06:54,320one K. Now is these planshave this auto escalation feature. And what97801:06:54,360 --> 01:06:57,880it is essentially is say you startyour four one K contribution rate at three97901:06:57,880 --> 01:07:00,559percent of pay. Automatically, nextyear it's going to increase to four and98001:07:00,599 --> 01:07:03,880then five and then six, andthen it might you know, stop increasing98101:07:03,880 --> 01:07:06,920after you hit ten percent, andeach year it increases one percent. It's98201:07:06,960 --> 01:07:11,400it's designed to in a way thatthey don't want it to make it noticeable98301:07:11,599 --> 01:07:15,039for the worker, while still increasingtheir savings rate for the worker. And98401:07:15,079 --> 01:07:18,400it is a good thing because peoplehave a hard time being disciplined, right,98501:07:18,400 --> 01:07:21,719People have a hard time holding themselvesaccountable, and during working years,98601:07:21,719 --> 01:07:25,920those are when you need to besalking that way money away. And I98701:07:25,920 --> 01:07:29,000don't have a huge problem behind it. However, now it's going to be98801:07:29,039 --> 01:07:31,360mandated, right because the secure We'vetalked about this before, but the secure98901:07:31,400 --> 01:07:35,079two point o law that passed inDecember will require that new FOM one K99001:07:35,199 --> 01:07:41,079plans will now have to include thatnew feature starting in twenty twenty four.99101:07:41,199 --> 01:07:45,400So that's going to be a reallyinteresting thing to just keep aware, well99201:07:45,400 --> 01:07:47,679as actually starts in twenty twenty five. Excuse me, but that's gonna be99301:07:47,719 --> 01:07:53,719a really interesting thing to see howmuch the American savings rate increases going forward.99401:07:53,920 --> 01:07:57,079Now. And yeah, if youdon't know, I don't need to99501:07:57,079 --> 01:08:01,719get you in a box here,But it's just new plans, new plans99601:08:01,719 --> 01:08:06,639for grandfather three exactly the period fatheredafter before twenty twenty three. Your grandfathered99701:08:08,239 --> 01:08:13,280you said, auto right, autoescalation. Speaking of autos, there we99801:08:13,320 --> 01:08:18,560go. Carmacks stock, up nearlythirty percent this year, added another nine99901:08:18,600 --> 01:08:23,680percent at the open on Friday.Company reported earnings for the most recent quarter100001:08:23,800 --> 01:08:28,600that were nearly double expectations. AndI don't know if you have any dealings100101:08:28,640 --> 01:08:30,159with Carmack Carmacks, but they're good. It's a good it's a good company.100201:08:30,159 --> 01:08:33,319I've had a few dealings with them, and uh, they're they're straight100301:08:33,359 --> 01:08:39,079shooters, they're honest. Hum,I had a card that I needed to100401:08:39,079 --> 01:08:42,800sell and uh, I took itto them for a bid and they came100501:08:42,880 --> 01:08:46,960in um a good three or fourpercent above CarMax and everybody else. I100601:08:47,000 --> 01:08:49,159didn't you know, you saw itin the open market, put in the100701:08:49,159 --> 01:08:53,600newspaper, whatever, Craigslist, whatever, and do better, no question.100801:08:54,159 --> 01:08:57,600But it was it was a reasonableoffer. It was low retail. Oh100901:08:57,960 --> 01:09:01,119that's okay. Uh die Therapeutics.She had never heard of the company.101001:09:01,600 --> 01:09:04,840The shares of the biopharma company jumpedto a new all time high. That101101:09:04,920 --> 01:09:10,800was on Monday of last week.Eli Lily acquired a company for two point101201:09:10,840 --> 01:09:17,319four billion in cash, Eli Lilyand Nonvovo and I believe that other.101301:09:17,479 --> 01:09:20,079I can't think of the other company, but apparently they have some type of101401:09:20,079 --> 01:09:26,560conference all over the weekend talking aboutsome phase studies that are coming out for101501:09:26,560 --> 01:09:30,880the first time about their ozempic drugsand all these weight loss one yeah,101601:09:30,880 --> 01:09:34,319the weight loss ones. So tosee how those new phase studies continue to101701:09:34,319 --> 01:09:38,399come out, that's gonna be reallyinteresting to see if it can finally be101801:09:38,439 --> 01:09:42,720classified as a weight loss drug andnot just diabetes drug, because that has101901:09:42,760 --> 01:09:45,479a lot of ramifications. And againthe FDA has been hesitant to do that102001:09:45,520 --> 01:09:50,239because of the health effects. Twohealth effects that I'm aware of. One102101:09:50,359 --> 01:09:54,720is that we saw a study acouple weeks ago. Thirty percent of the102201:09:54,840 --> 01:09:58,920of the lost weight is muscle andbone. You know what I learned yesterday102301:09:59,319 --> 01:10:03,439is that? And I think nineteeneighty nine or ninety one, there was102401:10:03,479 --> 01:10:10,119an act pass that made any vaccinemaker can never be sued or help liable102501:10:10,159 --> 01:10:15,279for any damages from any vaccine theycreated. Isn't that incredible? And I102601:10:15,319 --> 01:10:17,520guess it's, uh, yeah,it is. Yes. The answer is102701:10:17,600 --> 01:10:21,600day Yes, that's incredible. Iwas just I was floored by the Yeah,102801:10:23,039 --> 01:10:25,920and we know that the around thirtypercent again of that of the weight102901:10:25,960 --> 01:10:30,079loss is bone and muscle, andso will the FDA approve that for weight103001:10:30,159 --> 01:10:34,239loss? With those kinds of thingsgoing on? Hard to say, yeah,103101:10:34,399 --> 01:10:39,000hard to say. And also Iwas listening to a doctor the on103201:10:39,159 --> 01:10:44,159CBS Morning the Sunday Morning, uh, the other day, and he uh,103301:10:44,760 --> 01:10:48,760he said that once you stop takingthe drugs, all the way comes103401:10:48,760 --> 01:10:53,239back. So you do you losebone? How did the bone come back?103501:10:53,520 --> 01:10:56,239Yeah? Exactly, the bone isnot going to come back. But103601:10:56,560 --> 01:10:59,960you most actually didn't say all theyshould most most of the weight, will103701:11:00,159 --> 01:11:01,720Karen, which is on which istypical of a diet, right, you103801:11:01,760 --> 01:11:04,720go on a diet, Well thatmakes sense. Yeah, I mean,103901:11:04,760 --> 01:11:09,119I don't know what's going on withthe throat here. Um, I mean104001:11:09,199 --> 01:11:11,960the more you yeah, I mean, at the end of the day,104101:11:12,000 --> 01:11:15,800we all know how to continue tokeep off weight. There's there's certain way104201:11:15,000 --> 01:11:18,159things you need to do, andif you stop using the one thing that104301:11:18,199 --> 01:11:21,119has help you reducing the way it'sgoing to come back. It's yeah,104401:11:21,199 --> 01:11:25,760yeah, so we get to backto the old DNA diet and exercise.104501:11:27,199 --> 01:11:33,359You know that Lily's a Lily's drugor Nova's drug is a short term fix104601:11:33,720 --> 01:11:39,199and if it can get you starteddown the right road and yeah, but104701:11:39,479 --> 01:11:45,760uh, there's an awfully lot ofevidence that it's it's not going to get104801:11:45,800 --> 01:11:49,600you down the right roads to temporaryfix and um oh, Dave, we're104901:11:49,600 --> 01:11:54,439a country of temporary I don't thinkthat would be a problem. No,105001:11:55,680 --> 01:12:00,640absolutely right. They will still sellas many as they can, absolutely right.105101:12:00,640 --> 01:12:02,880Well, we're coming to the endof the first hour, excuse me.105201:12:02,960 --> 01:12:08,039The first segment of the second hour, we'll have Jonathan Sivilia, our105301:12:08,119 --> 01:12:11,960attorney, back with us and thenext segment and look forward to see what105401:12:12,079 --> 01:12:15,279Jonathan has to talk about this week. Thanks again for joining us. Stay105501:12:15,279 --> 01:12:28,119cool out there, we'll be backback then. Good morning again, Welcome105601:12:28,119 --> 01:12:30,760back to the Money Matters Show.We're looking for Jonathan Civilia, our attorney,105701:12:30,960 --> 01:12:34,279and he's running late, so we'regonna kick off this segment Todd.105801:12:34,319 --> 01:12:39,880We're gonna do our thing and whenJonathan shows up, we'll get him on105901:12:39,880 --> 01:12:43,920the air. The one thing thatI saw this week is Ford laying awesome106001:12:43,920 --> 01:12:46,560employees. Yeah, see that aswell. I did. Now job has106101:12:46,560 --> 01:12:51,039claims they didn't really they were kindof unchanged week over week, So obviously106201:12:51,199 --> 01:12:56,439they haven't laid him off yet.But obviously we gotta keep keeping an eye106301:12:56,479 --> 01:12:59,920on that because that's the only thingI can see really happening to the ECONO.106401:13:00,119 --> 01:13:04,600Mean, that could actually send uslower. It's it's interesting Ford.106501:13:04,600 --> 01:13:09,439It's an interesting company. They've beenUh, they're all in on the electric106601:13:09,479 --> 01:13:12,600vehicle thing. Uh. And yetif you want to get an electric vehicle106701:13:12,640 --> 01:13:15,680from Ford to take six to twelvemonths, good luck? Right, Yeah,106801:13:15,720 --> 01:13:18,439and there they're working. Uh.I think Jim Kramer was just back106901:13:18,479 --> 01:13:25,239in uh in Dearborn last week.And he said they're they're working one shift107001:13:26,159 --> 01:13:30,600at the electric plant, the electricassembly line. Jim goes, you gotta107101:13:30,640 --> 01:13:34,600be doing twenty four seven. You'vegot tremendous demand right now, demand you107201:13:34,720 --> 01:13:40,079cannot meet. That's insane, isn'tthat something if if you have one shift,107301:13:40,199 --> 01:13:44,239if you're if you're running a business. I think he said one shift.107401:13:44,279 --> 01:13:45,640It seems like it would be atleast two, but maybe it's maybe107501:13:45,680 --> 01:13:49,159it's two instead of three. Butthe bottom line is they're not getting the107601:13:49,399 --> 01:13:58,199product out there. They've got avery popular Ford Lightning pick up the I'm107701:13:58,239 --> 01:14:02,319not a pick up lightning the lightningyeah for Lance was one fifty. Yeah,107801:14:02,479 --> 01:14:05,520I think it's one fifty for lightning. The electric fix. Of a107901:14:05,560 --> 01:14:11,600lot of demand for that. Thereare new Mock two Mustang Mock two electric108001:14:11,600 --> 01:14:15,159car is really a nice looking carlike that one. Well, I think108101:14:15,239 --> 01:14:18,399a lot of people like it becauseI've been asking around and it seems like108201:14:18,439 --> 01:14:25,760it's one of the more popular lookingelectric car car right And yet so they've108301:14:25,760 --> 01:14:29,960got a lot of demand for theirproduct, so they've got to find a108401:14:30,000 --> 01:14:34,239way to get the product out there. Um. I was in my exploration108501:14:34,279 --> 01:14:39,880of electric vehicles I was talking toa guy for it. If you wanted108601:14:39,960 --> 01:14:45,239a mock two Mustang mock to electriccar, what's the lead time? Six108701:14:45,319 --> 01:14:48,239to twelve months? Six to twelvemonths? I mean I could be dead.108801:14:49,279 --> 01:14:54,319Yeah, I got aways six totwelve months for a stupid car.108901:14:55,000 --> 01:15:00,680Uh. The at Tesla two tofour weeks, big difference, that's it.109001:15:00,800 --> 01:15:03,640I only two to four weeks.But that again, that's the you've109101:15:03,680 --> 01:15:08,199got to get yourself geared. Ofcourse, you could always go to Lucid109201:15:08,560 --> 01:15:12,720or the Rivian because they're making morecars than they can sell. Problem is109301:15:12,760 --> 01:15:15,159you've got to have a lot ofmoney if you're gonna go there. Yeah,109401:15:15,159 --> 01:15:16,760and you've said it a couple oftimes. We happens if those companies109501:15:16,760 --> 01:15:19,800go out of business, right,I find that a problem. I mean,109601:15:19,840 --> 01:15:23,960if you purchased an electric car andthen the company goes out of business,109701:15:24,000 --> 01:15:27,640I think that's a fairly significant problem, especially if you're a Lucid one109801:15:27,680 --> 01:15:30,960that has all that Saudi Arabian moneybehind them. Is that Lucid I believe?109901:15:30,960 --> 01:15:33,520So? Yeah, Belie is heithercan't imagine set to Lucid or Rivian,110001:15:33,600 --> 01:15:36,520So it's probably Lucid, I don'tI don't think they're gonna be losing110101:15:36,520 --> 01:15:40,600any and Lucien to the one inCastle Grand right. Yeah, So well,110201:15:40,640 --> 01:15:43,760I'm just saying like, I don'tthink they're gonna They're not gonna you110301:15:43,800 --> 01:15:45,760know, that's a big investment forit, I get it. But if110401:15:45,800 --> 01:15:47,880they the other thing is, Idon't know that I would buy an electric110501:15:48,039 --> 01:15:50,279vehicle. I think if I wereto get when, I would lease it110601:15:50,680 --> 01:15:57,119because the technology is changing so rapidlythat if you were to buy an electric110701:15:57,239 --> 01:16:00,000vehicle, I could see myself gettingstuck with a three year old self.110801:16:00,159 --> 01:16:01,359I don't know why you buy anynew car. What's the three year old110901:16:01,399 --> 01:16:05,000cell phone worth? Personally a newnew cell phone? No, it's what's111001:16:05,000 --> 01:16:10,920the three year old cell phone worth? Not much? I don't know,111101:16:11,039 --> 01:16:14,560Damn No. I'm just saying withthe technological change is taking place in the111201:16:14,560 --> 01:16:17,159electric car, because the phones areweird because you have the contracts and they111301:16:17,199 --> 01:16:20,239make them like you're paying a price, but you're not really paying it.111401:16:20,239 --> 01:16:24,319It's like a monthly fee. Imean, you could actually find yourself three111501:16:24,399 --> 01:16:30,640years down the road with an entirelydifferent battery technology. So that's why I'm111601:16:30,640 --> 01:16:33,399staying that I don't know if Iif I buy not me, but if111701:16:33,479 --> 01:16:39,840if a person were to buy afifty sixty seventy thousand dollars electric car and111801:16:40,000 --> 01:16:44,279three years down the road the batterytechnology has changed because somebody came up with111901:16:44,359 --> 01:16:46,479us. Well, let's just taketwenty thirteen, how many electrical vehicles did112001:16:46,479 --> 01:16:51,039we talk about? None? Right? Yeah, ten years later, it's112101:16:51,079 --> 01:16:55,319all we can talk about. Sure. I just that's gonna happen in twenty112201:16:55,399 --> 01:16:58,640thirty three, right, I justthink the technology is that um, you112301:16:58,680 --> 01:17:02,479know Amazon, which talked about themthe stock done well. They announced last112401:17:02,479 --> 01:17:08,720week they're going to invest one hundredmillion dollars in an AI fentner to keep112501:17:08,800 --> 01:17:13,319up with Google and Microsoft. Yeah. I mean they got to be using112601:17:13,359 --> 01:17:16,239that chat GBT somehow. The kindof money that's going into this AI,112701:17:16,319 --> 01:17:23,640I just I'm I just can't wait. I can't I probably can't wait because112801:17:23,760 --> 01:17:26,119we don't know. Sounds good,some bad, right, But it's gonna112901:17:26,119 --> 01:17:31,800be fascinating to see how our worldchanges over the next five years. Yeah.113001:17:31,840 --> 01:17:35,399I think it's gonna be pretty significant. Oh, absolutely. And I113101:17:35,399 --> 01:17:40,399think predominantly technology is going to continueto do what it has done. It113201:17:40,479 --> 01:17:46,680has taken mundane tasks away from us, and we've reallocated that time to things113301:17:46,720 --> 01:17:50,680that we care about more, somegood, some bad. At the end113401:17:50,720 --> 01:17:55,720of the day, you free uptime from mundane tasks. That's what technology113501:17:55,800 --> 01:17:58,479is designed to do. I'm justthinking how much less traffic there's going to113601:17:58,560 --> 01:18:01,159be and how much more real there'sgonna be on the hiking trails with everybody113701:18:01,239 --> 01:18:04,840sitting in front of their TV withtheir goggles on. Well, then you're113801:18:04,880 --> 01:18:10,680gonna be mad because everyone's gonna beflying around and their electric vehicle car passing113901:18:10,800 --> 01:18:14,960up. Oh yeah, like theJetsons right right, and that's gonna either114001:18:14,960 --> 01:18:16,319probably don't even know who the Jetsinsare. Yeah, it's probably an old114101:18:16,319 --> 01:18:21,079TV show. Yeah. The spryou know, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.114201:18:21,439 --> 01:18:27,319Despite ongoing chatter by the Biden administrationto refill it, um, it has114301:18:27,359 --> 01:18:30,520been drained for the twelfth straight week. Yeah. They just say a lot114401:18:30,520 --> 01:18:33,520of that's because of the mandated thingin twenty fifteen. But again, I114501:18:33,520 --> 01:18:39,079mean, um, they can't,um they well they can't. They just114601:18:39,239 --> 01:18:42,840like the energy, you can't sellwhat you're buying. I mean, you114701:18:42,880 --> 01:18:46,960know, they're they're mandated to sellper Congress since twenty fifteen. Um,114801:18:47,039 --> 01:18:50,079so they're having to sell oil outof the well. You start to really114901:18:50,119 --> 01:18:54,119realize the way he came out inNovember or whatever it was, that he115001:18:54,239 --> 01:18:58,119was gonna buy oil back, henever really was because he knew he had115101:18:58,159 --> 01:19:01,560that mandate a politician line or no, God, please don't do that.115201:19:02,119 --> 01:19:04,520Hey, I want to talk alittle bit about a stop loss order.115301:19:04,720 --> 01:19:11,039One of the things that we hearabout when the market is extended like it115401:19:11,119 --> 01:19:15,880is right now, is our stoploss orders. This would be on individual115501:19:15,920 --> 01:19:20,399stocks, and of course ets wouldqualify. Let's say you purchased a stock115601:19:20,479 --> 01:19:26,159at sixty and it's now a hundred, and you don't want to give all115701:19:26,199 --> 01:19:29,840of that gain back. We've seenthat happen before, so you put in115801:19:29,880 --> 01:19:34,720a stop loss order. Stop lossorder says that if that stock were to115901:19:34,760 --> 01:19:42,159trade at or below your price,then you get executed. So let's say,116001:19:42,159 --> 01:19:44,920in the case the example I use, you went from sixty two hundred.116101:19:44,960 --> 01:19:47,439Let's say you don't want it togo below ninety, so you put116201:19:47,520 --> 01:19:53,079in a stop loss order at ninety. Stock trades ninety or below, you're116301:19:53,119 --> 01:19:57,760out now on a regular stop order. Here's what happens. Let's say the116401:19:57,800 --> 01:20:02,439stock closes at ninety one, andthat night they report earnings and the earnings116501:20:02,439 --> 01:20:09,760are not good, and the stockopens at eighty two. That trade,116601:20:09,800 --> 01:20:14,119that's the next trade, ninety oneto eighty two. Okay, you've said116701:20:14,279 --> 01:20:17,600if the stock trades at or belowninety, I want out. You just116801:20:17,640 --> 01:20:23,920sold it eighty two because it tradedat or below ninety. The way you116901:20:23,960 --> 01:20:29,600get around that is a stop limitorder, and a stop limit orders the117001:20:29,640 --> 01:20:32,760exact same thing where you put itin at ninety, but to avoid that117101:20:32,840 --> 01:20:38,279happening, you say my limit iseighty nine. In other words, I117201:20:38,800 --> 01:20:42,239want if the stock trades ninety orbelow, I want out, but I117301:20:42,319 --> 01:20:45,039won't take less than eighty nine.That way, if it opens at eighty117401:20:45,039 --> 01:20:49,319two, you're not a seller becauseyou said I won't take less than eighty117501:20:49,399 --> 01:20:54,560nine. So be careful with stoporders. There are a couple kinds of117601:20:54,560 --> 01:20:58,119stop orders if you have questions abouthow to put those in. If you're117701:20:58,119 --> 01:21:01,920a home gamer and you're doing thison your computer or with your mare trade117801:21:01,960 --> 01:21:05,439or each trade, whatever, andyou've got a question about how to enter117901:21:05,479 --> 01:21:10,760a stop order, you can alsoenter a buy stop where you said,118001:21:10,800 --> 01:21:13,840you know this stock, well,it's like the SMP five hundred, the118101:21:14,000 --> 01:21:17,720SMP five hundred head resistance at fortythree twenty five. We knew that if118201:21:17,760 --> 01:21:23,119it moved above that forty three twentyfive at the close, that there was118301:21:23,119 --> 01:21:26,159a good chance that was going torun higher all around, all the way118401:21:26,199 --> 01:21:29,319to forty four to twenty five.So what you would do in that case,118501:21:29,479 --> 01:21:31,439and you can't really buy it,I'm just using the sp as an118601:21:31,439 --> 01:21:38,000example, what you have done inthat case is put a stop buy order118701:21:38,279 --> 01:21:43,920in at forty three thirty, sothe stock goes above that forty three twenty118801:21:43,960 --> 01:21:47,479five decisively. You're a buyer.You bought a forty three thirty random forty118901:21:47,520 --> 01:21:54,640four to quarter. You did greatbuy stop stop loss. All kinds of119001:21:54,680 --> 01:21:58,560different things you can do, allkinds of different orders. You can enter119101:21:59,039 --> 01:22:03,199to protect yourself and to play that'splayed too smart. So if you are119201:22:03,199 --> 01:22:06,600a home gamer and doing it yourselfand just would like to ask us a119301:22:06,680 --> 01:22:10,800question, we have no problem answeringthose questions. We do it all the119401:22:10,840 --> 01:22:14,439time. Yeah, it helps reducethe emotional side of things if you do119501:22:14,479 --> 01:22:18,399it properly. However, it alsois very confusing and it gets the best119601:22:18,479 --> 01:22:21,000of us. Sometimes you have to, you know, look it up,119701:22:21,079 --> 01:22:25,920make sure you're picking the right oneand things like that, because it stop,119801:22:25,960 --> 01:22:28,840stop, limit, The words caneasily get jumbled in your heads,119901:22:28,880 --> 01:22:31,119so make sure you know what you'redoing, what order you're putting in.120001:22:31,800 --> 01:22:33,800Yeah, if you started, peoplesaid, well, I don't want to120101:22:33,800 --> 01:22:35,520go below a nine. Dy onmy example, I don't want to go120201:22:35,520 --> 01:22:38,920below a nineties. I'm gonna puta stop. And that does not protect120301:22:39,000 --> 01:22:43,199you necessarily. And the example Iuse you sold at eighty two. It's120401:22:43,239 --> 01:22:46,920so funny. The you know,the efficient market hypothosis says stocks move in120501:22:47,039 --> 01:22:50,720a very gradual way, they don'tjump up and down, which we all120601:22:50,720 --> 01:22:56,279know, which is absolutely not true, right, absolutely not true. You120701:22:56,319 --> 01:23:00,439know Abu's budget, you know therental car company. I thought that Uber120801:23:00,439 --> 01:23:02,199and Lyft we're going to put themout of business. I honestly did.120901:23:02,640 --> 01:23:05,760I thought Uber and Left were goingto be the end of Avis and budget121001:23:05,800 --> 01:23:10,760and rental cars. And why wouldanyone rent a car when they've got all121101:23:10,760 --> 01:23:14,399the Well, apparently people like tohave their own means of transportation. Yeah,121201:23:15,439 --> 01:23:17,880it could be less costly, dependingon how many trips you have to121301:23:17,920 --> 01:23:20,800make. I think it's a flexibilityissue. Just you've got your own car,121401:23:20,920 --> 01:23:24,840you know. And the stock isup twenty seven percent this year,121501:23:24,960 --> 01:23:29,960jumped another eight percent on Monday afterMorgan Stanley upgraded the stock to a buy121601:23:30,359 --> 01:23:32,560now. I told you back intwenty twenty, I figured it was over121701:23:32,640 --> 01:23:36,920for them. Stock since then,Todd, since the twenty twenty low,121801:23:38,439 --> 01:23:45,000has only risen seven hundred percent.So seven times your money in three years,121901:23:45,359 --> 01:23:48,640and that's what that's. That's fora company that I frankly didn't think122001:23:48,680 --> 01:23:53,279would would be here. Who wouldhave thought that one? Yeah, seven122101:23:53,560 --> 01:23:57,239hundred percent. It's kind of likethe home builders. You go back a122201:23:57,319 --> 01:24:00,319year, year and a half,you couldn't give the home builders away about122301:24:00,319 --> 01:24:02,840to bring up. Homebuilders and semiconductorsboth hitting new highs. Yeah, it122401:24:02,880 --> 01:24:06,399doesn't happen in bear markets. Theysay, no, it's happening now.122501:24:06,479 --> 01:24:09,880We don't have a bear market rightnow, we have a ball market.122601:24:10,159 --> 01:24:14,640And we're yeah, because we're youknow, it's the highest if we can't122701:24:14,640 --> 01:24:18,680consider it a bear market anymore.But it is the highest rally off of122801:24:18,720 --> 01:24:23,199a bear market so far that we'veseen. So it's it's quite impressive this122901:24:23,319 --> 01:24:27,720rally. But again we've talked aboutit's seven stocks, the magnificent seven driving123001:24:27,760 --> 01:24:30,000the driving the market to level wehaven't seen in a couple of years.123101:24:30,000 --> 01:24:34,199So we'll be back. We appreciateyour listening to the show. We enjoy123201:24:34,279 --> 01:24:36,960bringing it to you. We've gota little bit more information. If we123301:24:38,000 --> 01:24:40,920can shake Jonathan, we'll see whatwe can do. We can do,123401:24:41,199 --> 01:24:44,560no promises here, but we'll certainlysee what we can do. And again,123501:24:44,600 --> 01:24:49,680thanks for listening. We'll be backright after this break. Welcome back123601:24:49,680 --> 01:24:53,960to the Money Matters Show. Thisis our last segment of the day.123701:24:54,199 --> 01:24:57,319My name is Todd Blick. I'mhere with David Sherwood. We will have123801:24:57,399 --> 01:25:00,520Dylan back, but he not backnext week, Dying Dyalan next week in123901:25:00,600 --> 01:25:03,479Dean for a few more weeks.It's a few more weeks having a good124001:25:03,520 --> 01:25:08,800time in Europe. But our ourman Dylan will be back. Um I124101:25:08,840 --> 01:25:12,159think sure, Yeah, I thinkso, Dean said. Dean said,124201:25:12,479 --> 01:25:15,600if I'm gonna go that far,we're gonna spend some time. Uh yeah,124301:25:15,880 --> 01:25:18,720And I'm all in on that.That's a long flight, it's along,124401:25:18,920 --> 01:25:23,479a lot of planning involved, andI hope they have a good time.124501:25:23,600 --> 01:25:28,600You know, PayPal stock has beenlanguishing about eighty percent off the all124601:25:28,640 --> 01:25:32,760time high. Stock just got blastedand it's just laying there just like a124701:25:32,840 --> 01:25:36,239dead fish. Uh. It gota little bit of a boost on Monday124801:25:36,800 --> 01:25:42,039on news that they're going to spendone billion dollars to buy back more shares,124901:25:42,039 --> 01:25:46,279and it crossed my mind somebody hasto certainly, isn't a lot of125001:25:46,319 --> 01:25:50,640interest from the public. Yeah,we got on the video and videos again.125101:25:51,159 --> 01:25:57,800You know, investors cannot get enoughin video and rightfully, so AI125201:25:57,960 --> 01:26:01,600is all the rage. Everybody's talkingabout AI, artificial intelligence, how that's125301:26:01,600 --> 01:26:04,239going to change the world and allof the things it's going to do in125401:26:04,279 --> 01:26:09,760all of these different areas that youreally even never even thought about until now.125501:26:10,359 --> 01:26:15,920M And Nvidia has the big chip. They have the most powerful chip.125601:26:16,319 --> 01:26:20,159Uh AMD has a chip that's that'strying to rival it, trying to125701:26:20,279 --> 01:26:25,439rival it, but it's not it'snot anywhere near as powerful as in Vidia.125801:26:25,479 --> 01:26:29,880So they have the fuel that's it'skind of like kind of like Tesla125901:26:29,960 --> 01:26:32,560with the charging station. I'm sureGoogle Bird which is their chat GBT,126001:26:32,720 --> 01:26:38,359which I heard is in my opinion'sgonna overtake chat GBT by far. Yeah.126101:26:38,399 --> 01:26:43,279I mean if you can incorporate theGoogle Bird with everything that Google already126201:26:43,279 --> 01:26:45,720offers, right, Like we're talkingYouTube, Google Docs, Google spreadsheets,126301:26:45,720 --> 01:26:51,560I mean they are Microsoft already.They have all those services, and I126401:26:51,600 --> 01:26:55,920grew up using those. That's whatpeople don't understand. Google was really smart.126501:26:55,960 --> 01:26:59,319They gave really cheap chromebooks to theseschools. I grew up using a126601:26:59,399 --> 01:27:02,079chromebook. Everything I did was aGoogle Dot, Google spreadsheet, a Google126701:27:02,119 --> 01:27:06,239presentation. I didn't use Office atall. Right, so a lot of126801:27:06,239 --> 01:27:12,239these kids growing up using chromebooks,they are very accustomed to Google services.126901:27:13,680 --> 01:27:16,560Add that on top, right,you chat GB not chat Google Bard on127001:27:16,600 --> 01:27:20,319top of that, and the endlessyou know, possibilities really start to open127101:27:20,359 --> 01:27:26,239the door. So you know,obviously Microsoft's already is also doing this with127201:27:26,319 --> 01:27:30,199their Office Suite as well, butjust something to continue to watch out for.127301:27:30,239 --> 01:27:33,359And I think Google will continue toreign supreme because of that. I127401:27:33,399 --> 01:27:40,359think most of us don't don't haveany idea of how deep this AI is127501:27:40,439 --> 01:27:44,079going to go into, how manyareas is going to pop up, and127601:27:44,079 --> 01:27:46,680we're going to see it and saygosh, it's involved there. It's like127701:27:46,720 --> 01:27:51,720trying to calculate exponential numbers where ourbrain just doesn't compute it, right,127801:27:53,159 --> 01:27:55,920our brain just doesn't have the abilityto compute it. Yeah, I don't.127901:27:55,920 --> 01:27:59,279I don't think. Yeah, Ithink unless you're in that tech world,128001:28:00,439 --> 01:28:02,600I don't think you would have anyidea of even how it would apply.128101:28:03,199 --> 01:28:08,720But it's gonna pop up in areaswith our attorney friend Johnathan Stabilia has128201:28:08,800 --> 01:28:13,520joined us this morning. Hi Johnny, what's happening guys? Sorry, I'm128301:28:13,520 --> 01:28:17,680a little late. That had ayou know, your service clients whenever you128401:28:17,760 --> 01:28:21,159can and whenever they need it.Oh, absolutely, but thank you for128501:28:21,199 --> 01:28:26,039having me on. That's what's goingon in your world? Nothing much,128601:28:26,159 --> 01:28:30,600just a long day and it's uhthat's that's how it works. So,128701:28:30,840 --> 01:28:34,000uh, the life of a workingman. Yeah, book, you got128801:28:34,000 --> 01:28:40,760there? H So this is probablya uh the most if you're ever want128901:28:40,760 --> 01:28:45,199to get into retirement, learn retirementand taxes and trust and a state planning.129001:28:45,239 --> 01:28:48,239Even on your guys, Natalie bechoked, all right, how do129101:28:48,239 --> 01:28:53,000you spell that? See her lastname is c. H o At.129201:28:53,279 --> 01:28:56,520You're holding a book, holding abook, right, and think she's got129301:28:56,520 --> 01:29:00,319a bunch of written by Natalie bechoked. All right, Every attorney I129401:29:00,399 --> 01:29:05,319know and every CPA should have this. Uh it goes she is the gold129501:29:05,479 --> 01:29:12,399standard of retirement, all right.And choke is like, choke your attorney.129601:29:12,399 --> 01:29:15,520What's that choke like? Choke yourattorney? Pretty much? No chok129701:29:16,479 --> 01:29:20,760h O A C h O At E. Al Right, Okay,129801:29:20,880 --> 01:29:24,920got it, got it choked.And so she wrote a book. She129901:29:24,960 --> 01:29:28,319wrote a very a book on howto retire. What is it? She130001:29:28,399 --> 01:29:32,079basically talks about taxation planning. Um, you know, it goes through every130101:29:32,079 --> 01:29:38,199single it's retirement vehicle you can have, and uh, what is you know?130201:29:38,439 --> 01:29:42,479She talks about different ways to strategizeyour retirement. And it's an area130301:29:42,520 --> 01:29:46,199that I'm really interested in and I'mtrying to learn more about because it's an130401:29:46,199 --> 01:29:49,000area that a lot of state plannersdon't really think about. You know,130501:29:49,039 --> 01:29:53,720I had a client meeting yesterday andwe talked about this this week, me130601:29:53,720 --> 01:29:57,800and you John. The Christmas treeis a great analogy when you talk about130701:29:57,840 --> 01:30:00,680the trust, right, because somany times when someone needs to get an130801:30:00,760 --> 01:30:04,000updated trust, they believe, youknow, they go into an estate planner.130901:30:04,119 --> 01:30:05,920I just need to change a coupleof things. I got a couple131001:30:05,920 --> 01:30:11,600of assets that changed here, andthen the estate planner does the incomplete wrong131101:30:11,680 --> 01:30:15,640thing and does the whole new trustright changes the tree, and you you131201:30:15,720 --> 01:30:18,439kind of help me understand this.An analogy is the original trust is your131301:30:18,439 --> 01:30:23,640original tree, like a Christmas tree, and the assets are the ornaments,131401:30:23,680 --> 01:30:26,560and they're gonna go on, They'regonna go off, and assets are gonna131501:30:26,640 --> 01:30:28,640change. But you don't need tochange the tree. The tree is fine.131601:30:28,680 --> 01:30:30,479You just need to change some wordinghere and there. Right. And131701:30:30,520 --> 01:30:33,119I had a client who was talkingwith me and it's like, I think131801:30:33,159 --> 01:30:36,720I need a new asset, newestate plan, or I need to review131901:30:36,760 --> 01:30:39,880my estate plan, but every timeI get it reviewed, someone tries to132001:30:39,880 --> 01:30:41,920give me a new estate plan,right right, So I think that's a132101:30:42,000 --> 01:30:44,880very important thing at least bring upand talk a little bit about right now.132201:30:45,159 --> 01:30:47,760Yes, So, one of mybiggest pet peeves with some attorneys is132301:30:47,800 --> 01:30:51,800they hard code everything in So yousay, twenty years ago you had one132401:30:51,840 --> 01:30:56,800house, and you set up ina state plan with an attorney, and132501:30:56,840 --> 01:31:00,520there's a schedule in the back thathas the one house, but it's hard132601:31:00,520 --> 01:31:06,079coded, you know, typed intothe trust, and that schedule should be132701:31:06,079 --> 01:31:11,319able to be changed at a moment'snotice. It shouldn't be hard coded.132801:31:11,319 --> 01:31:15,840You should write it in as youbring in assets, and you should cross132901:31:15,880 --> 01:31:19,119off the assets as you go throughlife. All right, So an attorney133001:31:19,159 --> 01:31:23,640that hard codes an in I thinkit's dirty pool because every time you get133101:31:23,640 --> 01:31:25,840a new asset, or if youwant to remove an asset, you have133201:31:25,880 --> 01:31:29,079to go to him to make analteration. I don't think you need to133301:31:29,079 --> 01:31:30,840do that. The only time youshould be updating your trust as if you're133401:31:30,880 --> 01:31:35,880making if you have major life changingissues. You know, you got married,133501:31:36,479 --> 01:31:41,880had some kids, you want todisinherit some kids you want to disinherit133601:31:41,920 --> 01:31:45,159somebody, you want to change yourtrustees. But if you're adding and subtracting133701:31:45,159 --> 01:31:48,319assets, there's no reason to makealterations to the trust unless you specifically wanted133801:31:48,399 --> 01:31:53,720to go somewhere so you know you'llhave an attorney that and if you do133901:31:53,800 --> 01:31:57,039get to stay planned and not withmy firm, but you go somewhere and134001:31:57,159 --> 01:31:59,439they ask you what your assets are, and then they give you a schedule134101:31:59,520 --> 01:32:02,600typed out and they ask you toattach it to your trust. I don't.134201:32:02,640 --> 01:32:05,319I don't believe in that. Idon't think that's a right way of134301:32:05,399 --> 01:32:09,640preparing an a state plan. It'suh, like I said, I'm not134401:32:09,720 --> 01:32:12,680here to squeeze you out of everydime. I'm here to make sure you134501:32:12,720 --> 01:32:16,439have something and to see me aslittle as possible. Yeah, it makes134601:32:16,439 --> 01:32:19,640no sense, the whole schedule thing. It makes no sense that your life134701:32:19,720 --> 01:32:25,279changes so dramatically. My wife andI put our living trust together in nineteen134801:32:25,319 --> 01:32:29,079eighty two, it's forty one yearsago. And then they had there been134901:32:29,119 --> 01:32:31,520a list of things. They're allgone. I mean, it's for ever135001:32:31,600 --> 01:32:34,520on a totally different life. Yeah, it's I don't. I don't get135101:32:34,560 --> 01:32:39,920it. It's why and I willsee trust like that. And so you135201:32:39,960 --> 01:32:45,079think that those are put together primarilyso the attorney can get to review it135301:32:45,079 --> 01:32:47,279from time to time or doing amendment. I shouldn't check it. I'm making135401:32:47,279 --> 01:32:51,760it. Talk bad about your profession. But that's interesting, But it's true.135501:32:51,800 --> 01:32:56,199So many people are worried about,you know, updating trust or doing135601:32:56,239 --> 01:32:58,520certain things that they should be doing, just because they feel like they're going135701:32:58,560 --> 01:33:01,000to get nickel and dimed all theway. And that's why anyone listening should135801:33:01,000 --> 01:33:04,640take advantage of that free consultation withyou, because you will just tell them135901:33:04,680 --> 01:33:06,760straight up what do they need todo, why they need to do it,136001:33:06,800 --> 01:33:09,520and then you would give them theprice. Right, Yeah, and136101:33:09,720 --> 01:33:14,000in that in that document exactly inthat document at the back. You know,136201:33:14,159 --> 01:33:15,880it doesn't need to be updated allthe time. It's just there for136301:33:16,039 --> 01:33:20,159I believe, for inventory purposes only. So if you have a couple of136401:33:20,199 --> 01:33:24,840houses that are not on there,or there's assets that are inside the trust136501:33:24,880 --> 01:33:28,560that are not on there, doesn'tpreclude it from the trust as long as136601:33:28,560 --> 01:33:30,479it's titled inside the trust. Theornaments. You put the ornaments on,136701:33:30,720 --> 01:33:34,640all right, and you take themoff as you go. So, UM,136801:33:34,800 --> 01:33:38,399don't feel you need to reach outto an attorney, and maybe they136901:33:38,439 --> 01:33:42,079have a great reason to doing Iyou know, I've never understood it,137001:33:42,159 --> 01:33:44,439but you know, hopefully an attorneyyou can reach out to me and tell137101:33:44,479 --> 01:33:46,840me why and maybe cuss me outand let me know there is a legitimate137201:33:46,880 --> 01:33:51,079reason. And I'm willing to listen. But you know, personally, as137301:33:51,119 --> 01:33:56,039an attorney, my decision would notbe to do it that way. At137401:33:57,479 --> 01:34:00,600them. Anything creative to happen thisweek you're always he always said, he's137501:34:00,600 --> 01:34:04,560fascinating. Well, we know onething was the wills. I know we137601:34:04,680 --> 01:34:09,880got more work on it. Buthow does someone go about just creating will137701:34:09,960 --> 01:34:14,239with you? What does that looklike? Very very simple? You know,137801:34:14,359 --> 01:34:16,319we sit down, Uh, youknow, we'll do a little intake,137901:34:16,920 --> 01:34:24,640we'll figure out what you have.UM, you know, will take138001:34:24,680 --> 01:34:28,479a look at you know where thingsare to go. We'll take a look138101:34:28,520 --> 01:34:32,319at um you know you know whereyou know, if you're married. Do138201:34:32,359 --> 01:34:35,960we need to create two wills?Um? Do we need to you know,138301:34:36,079 --> 01:34:39,800discuss personal representatives? Who? Who? Who do you think is responsible138401:34:39,880 --> 01:34:44,239enough to go to court and thenminister these assets? Um? I do138501:34:44,279 --> 01:34:46,279get a lot of personal representatives thatare not my clients that call me up138601:34:46,319 --> 01:34:48,840and say, you know, doI really need to contact this person?138701:34:48,840 --> 01:34:51,720They're written out of the will,uh, you know, and ask me138801:34:51,760 --> 01:34:56,039certain questions. And I think someof them have bad intentions. You know,138901:34:56,079 --> 01:34:58,800you don't want to put a personin there with bad intentions. You139001:34:58,800 --> 01:35:00,520know, you want to put insomewhere there's to do right by your beneficiaries.139101:35:01,239 --> 01:35:08,199Right at the we talked about thefour o one cage and how you139201:35:08,199 --> 01:35:10,840need to look at that, andI would say that with all of your139301:35:10,920 --> 01:35:14,239legal documents as well. It doesn'tare. From time to time we tend139401:35:14,279 --> 01:35:18,239to to draft those and then forgetabout them, we yeah, and also139501:35:18,439 --> 01:35:21,039forget about the beneficiaries of the fourold Yeah, I mean, okay,139601:35:21,119 --> 01:35:26,880that's all done, you know,but my trust from nineteen eighty you look139701:35:26,920 --> 01:35:29,239back on that. I didn't evenhave a child of that. But real139801:35:29,319 --> 01:35:31,159quick, I mean on the fourone k normally you should have the primary139901:35:31,159 --> 01:35:34,399of your spouse as the beneficiary andthen a contingent if you have a trust140001:35:34,439 --> 01:35:41,399to trust exactly right, exactly,and um that that's ideal and right,140101:35:41,439 --> 01:35:44,760and that's why I have this book. All right? Have you read the140201:35:44,800 --> 01:35:48,399book? I've read. It isvery thick. I'm getting through it.140301:35:48,520 --> 01:35:51,239I was very impressed that you mighthave read it. I've read. I've140401:35:51,279 --> 01:35:55,399read the first couple of chapters,and it's really interesting because it talks about140501:35:55,399 --> 01:36:00,479how to save on taxes. Uh, let's say, all you have us140601:36:00,960 --> 01:36:03,439one kid that's a one kid that'sa doctor. One kid that doesn't make140701:36:03,439 --> 01:36:08,960a lot of money, you know, do you want to give the retirement140801:36:09,039 --> 01:36:13,800to the child that isn't a higherincome tax bracket and then or do you140901:36:13,800 --> 01:36:15,199want to give or give it tothe one that's in a lower income tax141001:36:15,199 --> 01:36:19,640bracket and then give the child thehouse that has a step up in basis141101:36:20,039 --> 01:36:23,159right, And you can say Ikind of want to play around with that141201:36:23,199 --> 01:36:26,399and think about those kind of thingswhen you are administering your assets. Give141301:36:26,520 --> 01:36:29,199Jonathan a call. He can helpyou out with Right here at five two141401:36:29,439 --> 01:36:31,399or five four four four nine onine, we thank you. They're joining141501:36:31,479 --> 01:36:34,239us to come into an end.We all want to be happy, yes141601:36:34,279 --> 01:36:36,800we do. We all want tobe healthy, of course, but at141701:36:36,840 --> 01:36:40,239the end of the day, we'retrying to be profitable.