Creating a Solid Financial Plan: The Time and Effort Required for Success

1 00:00:03,839 --> 00:00:07,719 Good morning, it's eight o'clock. It's Sunday morning, and this is the 2 00:00:07,759 --> 00:00:10,279 Money Matter Show. This is Dean Greenberg, and I will bring you, 3 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,800 with the rest of the group, two hours of information you try to help 4 00:00:14,839 --> 00:00:20,160 you, guide you through these markets and make you some money. We'll save 5 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:25,079 you some money, mitigate some risk. We'll talking about what we think is 6 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:31,359 going on. We had other than the NASDAC, we had pretty much a 7 00:00:31,399 --> 00:00:35,759 flat market. The Dow was down a half a point h the SMP was 8 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:43,840 up about one just point eight, and the excuse me, and then NAZDAC 9 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:50,079 was up two point cent and the equal rated SMP was down point two percent 10 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,479 for the month. Now we sit at the down down three and a half, 11 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:59,679 SMP down four percent, NAZDAC down five percent, and that's the same 12 00:00:59,719 --> 00:01:03,599 thing for the equal way to S and P. Well they obviously then you 13 00:01:03,599 --> 00:01:08,680 can see the NAZAC stocks. The big tech stocks ran up this week, 14 00:01:10,879 --> 00:01:15,319 mostly because the video's earnings were coming out on last week and guess what, 15 00:01:15,799 --> 00:01:23,359 they blew the doors off, blew the doors off earnings and the stock went 16 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:30,760 way high after opened up the next day thirty forty points higher, but reversed 17 00:01:30,799 --> 00:01:34,599 in the same day as the markets came down and fell the next day by 18 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:41,560 eleven points. So they went from about five ten all the way down to 19 00:01:41,719 --> 00:01:47,000 four fifty from the beginning of the opening after its earnings to the lower So 20 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:51,840 what does that mean? Talk about that today, But you understand that was 21 00:01:51,879 --> 00:02:00,359 profit taking every and the analysts raised their profits, their their projections six hundred 22 00:02:00,439 --> 00:02:07,240 six to fifty. It's one of those generation stocks that you look at and 23 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:12,319 you say, Wow, everybody's using it, when is it going to stop? 24 00:02:14,159 --> 00:02:16,719 You could have said the same thing about Apple, Amazon, all these 25 00:02:16,719 --> 00:02:21,840 stocks. They're in a very sweet spot right now with an economy that's kind 26 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:29,000 of good, but we're trying to break it. But if there's only one 27 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:36,400 company in the artificial intelligence world right now that is benefiting, it's the video. 28 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:43,240 The video is benefiting because they have the chip above all other chips. 29 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,919 They have that one product. Now there's all the cheaper ones and things that 30 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:51,879 can do other things, but for the super super super AI people, they 31 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,919 got to buy this ten eleven thousand dollar chip and they are not stopping. 32 00:02:55,919 --> 00:03:00,319 They keep buying and buying it to stay up on it. And that is 33 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:07,240 why in the video continues to rally after it gets knocked down. I don't 34 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:08,639 know how low it can go. I mean, you know it can go 35 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,039 back to three fifty. I guess right. I don't know how I can 36 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,759 go. But everyone's saying it's six hundred and six fifty and no one. 37 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,879 It was at two something, three something. We were looking for five. 38 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,560 It got over five. Pullback, see what happens. But you better understand 39 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:29,159 something about stocks like that. That volatility is incredible risky. Fear and greed 40 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,439 is what you drive you on that stock. And it's probably a stock a 41 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:37,840 company you want to own and not trade unless you have a position that you 42 00:03:37,879 --> 00:03:40,159 call your core position and that you don't trade that, and then you have 43 00:03:40,199 --> 00:03:44,680 your another one that you can trade on a short term basis. If you 44 00:03:44,719 --> 00:03:50,080 know what you're doing, it's very risky. And that brings me to the 45 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,039 disclaimer. This show is brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group. Greenberg Financial 46 00:03:55,039 --> 00:04:00,759 Group is both the registered investment advisory and a broker dealer register with the SEC, 47 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,400 members of fin and members of SIPPIC. On this show, we talk 48 00:04:03,439 --> 00:04:09,280 about different products and different strategies and we all have ideas and we and we 49 00:04:09,439 --> 00:04:14,360 discuss things. Everything has risk. Remember that. Just look at the video. 50 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,560 Up and down fifty points in two days, one hundred points. It 51 00:04:16,639 --> 00:04:21,199 moves. That's risky. Everything has a risk. Understanding risks, how do 52 00:04:21,199 --> 00:04:27,240 you avoid some of the risk by allocations, understanding your risk tolerance, mitigating 53 00:04:27,319 --> 00:04:30,879 risk. All these things are what you try to do in this type of 54 00:04:30,879 --> 00:04:34,360 market. The O the big thing this week this year, this week was 55 00:04:34,399 --> 00:04:45,040 a Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and there's little discussion with the mucky MUCKs CEOs of 56 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:49,399 the world, and said he's probably not done raising interest rates, and that 57 00:04:49,439 --> 00:04:53,399 created a rally, then a decline, and then a rally at the end 58 00:04:53,439 --> 00:04:57,480 of the day. I mean, I hate being into scenario that I want 59 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,800 to bear economy, so we stop rating interest rate. I like a good 60 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:06,519 economy and keep rates pretty much where they belong. And they're too high right 61 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:16,319 now. We don't want to inflation over two percent. Historically rates on homes 62 00:05:16,319 --> 00:05:19,759 are like four and a half five and they are about two percent higher than 63 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:24,560 they need to be right now or want it to be. But none of 64 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:29,399 this is going to change, guys, until we have a Congress that's willing 65 00:05:29,439 --> 00:05:36,319 to make changes. We constantly hear about taxes. We constantly hear about paying 66 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:41,560 your fair share. We constantly hear about where the money's got to go. 67 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,199 They just don't run it the way they need to run it, and they 68 00:05:45,199 --> 00:05:49,759 don't believe. They believe way too much that spending a certain amount of GDP 69 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:54,839 is okay if you're growing the economy. But we're not growing the economy because 70 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,519 they keep flowing down the economy, and that's when the rubber is going to 71 00:05:58,639 --> 00:06:03,600 hit the road, and that's when we're going to have a problem. Mitigating 72 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:14,279 your portfolio risk right now is so important. Mitigating risk means not being in 73 00:06:14,319 --> 00:06:18,879 a position that if this market goes down twenty to thirty percent, then you're 74 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,959 gonna watch your portfolio dropped that much or more. You don't want to be 75 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,240 in that position. If you are, that means you're all growth and you 76 00:06:26,759 --> 00:06:32,439 can accept the rallies up and you can accept the declines down. Most investors 77 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,360 are greedy and allow it to go up and say I don't have a problem. 78 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:40,360 I should be more invested when the markets are rallying, and then when 79 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:46,439 they go down they want to go to cash. Stay balanced right now, 80 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,600 balance portfolio, and all the way I look at a balance portfolio. You 81 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:55,439 can be forty to sixty percent invested right now. Being somewhere around fifty percent 82 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:59,240 invested is probably not a bad idea. And then maybe having a little hedge 83 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,000 on it to bring it down percent that you can move in and out and 84 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:08,240 then have the rest of bonds. You can get great income right now, 85 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:14,680 and you put some short term treasuries on, maybe a little bit longer out 86 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,600 now that the yields are higher, you put and you just put a portfolio 87 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:25,120 together so you have a nice portfolio that can handle the ups and downs in 88 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,360 the markets if you have short term treasures on. I'm not afraid of rates 89 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,600 going higher. I do believe if sometime rates will come down. So that's 90 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,480 why you want to be out maybe a little longer on the curve with some 91 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:40,519 of the money. And we're doing that as we bring in an income, 92 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,360 making sure that if it goes the other way and in three years from now 93 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,519 treasury is a bunch lower than we can do something benefit on the appreciation side. 94 00:07:49,759 --> 00:07:54,399 It's not a time to just sit back and say, oh, whatever 95 00:07:54,439 --> 00:08:00,959 happens will happen. Because we are in what I consider a yellow light, 96 00:08:01,519 --> 00:08:09,319 yellow flag type of scenario with the with the federal reserve. Every time we've 97 00:08:09,319 --> 00:08:15,480 had a big move down where there's two thousand and one, two thousand and 98 00:08:15,519 --> 00:08:22,600 eight, two twenty, the big crashes, there was a move into the 99 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:28,639 federal reserve that created a problem and created a liquidity problem, which is what 100 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:33,879 we have. And then there's no When you have a liquidity problem, there's 101 00:08:33,879 --> 00:08:37,639 not enough money there to keep driving the markets higher, and then when they 102 00:08:37,639 --> 00:08:41,080 fall, everyone panics and sells out, and then the markets fall and then 103 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,279 things slow down. You have that recession and then the next thing you know, 104 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,399 everyone's being a negative, and that's when you want to become positive. 105 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:52,799 It's a cycle. Matter how old you are, it's still a cycle. 106 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:58,039 Obviously, if you're younger, you can handle that cycle more and you want 107 00:08:58,039 --> 00:09:01,279 to keep put more money in as the thing goes down. That's why he 108 00:09:01,399 --> 00:09:03,519 dollar course Savage him went the following, k if you're older, you need 109 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:09,480 to mitigate risk. If you're fifty plus you need to mitigate risk. That 110 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,840 doesn't mean you're not going to lose. You're going to lose. But the 111 00:09:11,879 --> 00:09:18,120 markets are in a position that we do not have enough money coming in of 112 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,600 new money. We have quantitative tightening going on when the markets were rallying after 113 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:28,360 one or one to oh wait, guess what the markets did that because of 114 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:33,159 stimulus. Then they stopped the stimulus and then in all seven we had a 115 00:09:33,159 --> 00:09:39,679 liquidity problem, and then that stemmed into the economic problem with the banking situation. 116 00:09:39,879 --> 00:09:43,159 In twenty nineteen, we had to run on the federal on the on 117 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,399 the Federal reserve, banking on the member banks, interest rates went up, 118 00:09:46,519 --> 00:09:50,480 the barrowing wait to went to eight and a half percent. The Federal Reserve 119 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,879 had to step in and bring that down. But that was the prelude to 120 00:09:56,000 --> 00:10:01,080 the twenty twenty with the the When the pandemic came in, there was nothing 121 00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:05,559 there underneath it to support the markets, and they fell over twenty percent. 122 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:09,360 Then they came down to a level that people were willing to buy as a 123 00:10:09,399 --> 00:10:13,679 federal reserve, and everybody came back in and was starting to pump money into 124 00:10:13,799 --> 00:10:18,679 it. See, government only does things they when there's panic out there. 125 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:24,159 When there's panic, and they looked towards the smart people to tell them what 126 00:10:24,279 --> 00:10:30,360 to do. Obama had no clue in Owait what to do. Bush had 127 00:10:30,399 --> 00:10:33,600 no clue in that. They look for the people that understand The one person 128 00:10:33,919 --> 00:10:37,759 that I really believed that understood business and had the right people in his cabinet 129 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,919 was Trump. But the pressure from everybody to shut down the economy and do 130 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:48,320 all that stuff was so great. I don't believe he would have shut it 131 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,360 down the way we shut it down. But he did come up with saying 132 00:10:52,399 --> 00:10:54,679 given out money and doing everything else to bring it on. The problem we 133 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,759 had is the next president came in, which was Biden, had no clue 134 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:05,240 economics. All they ever did was give away free money. So the more 135 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,559 free money they gave away, that's how they thought they handle everything well. 136 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:13,000 That stimulus created the inflation that we had. They were not prepared to look 137 00:11:13,039 --> 00:11:16,679 into the future and say what do we do, and they have put it 138 00:11:16,759 --> 00:11:20,759 all on the federal reserve to keep raising interest rates like they continue to do. 139 00:11:22,039 --> 00:11:33,799 Political people are not understanding economics. Supply demand, right, That's simple. 140 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:37,159 When the supply is so low and the demand is so great, prices 141 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,200 go higher. We had a supply chain problem. What did we do to 142 00:11:41,279 --> 00:11:46,480 fix it? Nothing? We let it happen over time. We don't have 143 00:11:46,519 --> 00:11:50,360 a supply chain problem right now in most areas will increase the supply chain. 144 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:54,000 Make the supply chain bigger than the demand in the areas that we need to 145 00:11:54,919 --> 00:12:01,600 and you'll see inflation come down. The first it's a place that I would 146 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:07,159 attack would be energy. You need to attack energy. We have so much 147 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:15,639 oil to be able to be able to sell to our friends around the world, 148 00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:22,360 but we allow them to get it from our enemies. We opened up 149 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:26,840 drilling in the United States of America, not only would we never be dependent 150 00:12:26,919 --> 00:12:31,720 on anybody else like we are again now, but we would be able to 151 00:12:31,799 --> 00:12:37,840 keep oil prices down, which is one of the main reasons energy prices rising 152 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:43,960 have created the inflation that we have. It not only energy prices is pretty 153 00:12:43,039 --> 00:12:46,600 much the core of it all. But think about it. Food prices go 154 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:52,679 up because the transportation of the food goes up. The gasoline prices go up, 155 00:12:54,279 --> 00:12:58,279 and all we hear about is we've got to go ev ev ev electric 156 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:05,279 vehicles and it's not going over so great. And then and then bottom line 157 00:13:05,399 --> 00:13:11,919 is they're trying to push something without a full plan on how to execute it. 158 00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:16,159 It's always about the planning process we have. We preached that every week 159 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:20,759 on our shows. Your financial plan, your economic plan, things like that 160 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,200 have to be over time. You can't just say, oh, okay, 161 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:28,519 now we're gonna go ahead and we're gonna cut out gasoline and cards and we're 162 00:13:28,519 --> 00:13:33,679 gonna go do something. How do you think how many people really understand? 163 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:41,240 If you if we need more electricity, how is that electricity actually made. 164 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:46,360 It's made with fossil fuels cold, but they want to get rid of that. 165 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,440 How are we going to create the energy we need? Don't tell me 166 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:56,840 that wind and sun are going to be able to power up what we need. 167 00:13:58,159 --> 00:14:01,159 If everything, all the automobile and trucks and everything else bus us all 168 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:07,720 go to electric vehicles, we would not be able to do it. I'm 169 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,120 not the only one saying that. So many people are saying it around the 170 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:16,440 world. They're saying it. We don't have enough distribution of electricity. In 171 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:22,759 order for everyone to have the same source, we need other sources. I 172 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:28,559 have no problems with alternative energy, but like everything, allocate, allocate, 173 00:14:28,679 --> 00:14:33,039 allocate. If we were only allocating into one area and it all becomes alternative 174 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:39,120 energy and we don't have anything else, what happens when wind doesn't blow, 175 00:14:41,159 --> 00:14:46,159 it's too cloudy for sun. We want to use energy at different places I 176 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:50,360 mean, you don't think about it. Okay, that's what's going to happen. 177 00:14:50,679 --> 00:14:56,559 Common sense, which I think we are very short of back in Washington. 178 00:15:00,639 --> 00:15:05,919 All we concentrate on in Washington right now this whole thing with Trump. 179 00:15:07,759 --> 00:15:13,879 They want him to go to jail so bad so he won't be able to 180 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:20,360 run for president. And all this is doing right now is changing so many 181 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,960 minds of people that we're in the camp of. I love the Trump policies. 182 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,600 I don't want him to run. I'd rather somebody else go in to 183 00:15:28,759 --> 00:15:33,080 like, you know, the hell with this. I'm voting for Trump because 184 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,960 the things that he gone ahead and said, what's happening happened. The lies 185 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:45,240 that were made against them are coming to fruition. All these indictments would never 186 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,360 happen to anybody else. But more than anything, what's going on right now 187 00:15:48,399 --> 00:15:56,480 in our country, it's called fairness. Even the most critical people of Trump 188 00:15:58,799 --> 00:16:03,279 that I know are saying it is not fair that they are doing all this 189 00:16:03,399 --> 00:16:10,039 to him on chumped up charges when the Biden family keeps escaping everything and we're 190 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:17,720 not even talking about the Clintons. People are tired of the two tier system, 191 00:16:17,759 --> 00:16:22,519 and it's so blatantly happening in front of us, that a political opponent, 192 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:30,200 the one that is leading everybody right now, is being tried in every 193 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:40,440 state they can by biased people, biased attorneys generals, biased states, and 194 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:45,960 they're hoping to get a biased, friendly court to indict him so he has 195 00:16:45,039 --> 00:16:51,559 to go to jail. He might be the first person that will go to 196 00:16:51,639 --> 00:16:55,600 jail and win the election. And I hope that doesn't happen. It is 197 00:16:55,639 --> 00:16:59,840 a disgrace. As many of you know, I traveled a lot to summer. 198 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:06,079 They can't believe that we the people, we the people, are allowing 199 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:15,160 this to happen, That we're allowing one party to get prosecuted so badly and 200 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,039 the other ones letting go. And it's so blatant to people that are looking 201 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:22,000 overseas and looking into news and it's not Odd News, it's not Fox News, 202 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:27,240 it's at all. It's CNN News, and they're not happy with it. 203 00:17:29,839 --> 00:17:32,440 Even if people of cnna's starting to wake up and go, wait, 204 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:37,839 wait a second, this isn't the fairest thing in the world here, but 205 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:45,400 they keep doing it because no one has stopped them. We need to change 206 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:51,799 so many things that have to happen and I think more and more people believing 207 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:56,359 that Trump has to be the guy. He did it once, he's gonna 208 00:17:56,400 --> 00:18:00,640 have to do it again. From the border to the economy, me to 209 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:07,960 foreign foreign policy, to putting people that are not at work back to work. 210 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:18,759 Stop giving them free stuff, Stop living off everybody else. Go back 211 00:18:18,079 --> 00:18:23,559 to what America is based on, what we've grown on, what our origins 212 00:18:23,559 --> 00:18:27,839 are. You work hard, you get things that you need, what you 213 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:33,319 want. If you cannot do that, you're disabled, you're incapacitated, then 214 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:40,640 America will take care of you. But this whole thing now, people starting 215 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:48,839 to talk about putting mask back on masks. Okay, because it's a new 216 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,240 strain of COVID. Every year you're gonna have a new strain of COVID. 217 00:18:55,519 --> 00:18:57,640 We need to say no, we don't want to wear masks. We know 218 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,039 they didn't work. We're not going to do it again. Are they going 219 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:04,440 to start letting not allowing kids to go to school? Let me tell you 220 00:19:04,519 --> 00:19:11,079 something. We asked a simple question to high school kids, simple question, 221 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:25,880 what country is south of Tucson? What country is south of Tucson? Ninety 222 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:30,839 three percent of them got the answer wrong. But it's not that got the 223 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:41,319 answer wrong. It was the answers they gave. We're so worried about teaching 224 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:48,559 all these other things to kids in school, transgender equality, this, that, 225 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:53,920 all that stuff, we're not teaching them simple peasic stuff that you need 226 00:19:53,960 --> 00:20:00,839 to know. I could not believe some of the answers. Well, what's 227 00:20:00,839 --> 00:20:06,680 the country south of Tucson? And they say south Tucson. Another said Nevada, 228 00:20:06,759 --> 00:20:11,720 another said California, another said Europe, another said Africa, another said 229 00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:18,880 Texas. A lot of them said I don't know. I said California. 230 00:20:18,039 --> 00:20:25,440 Is that a country estate? They didn't know the difference. We wonder why 231 00:20:25,599 --> 00:20:30,200 we are forty eighth in the country and why we can't go forward and get 232 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:37,559 things done. Our education system is working and doing things on areas that we 233 00:20:37,599 --> 00:20:45,960 don't need. Yeah, it's fine. I'm all about equal equal rights. 234 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,480 I'm all about getting rid of racism. I'm all about that, But not 235 00:20:53,079 --> 00:21:00,519 we need to go ahead and continue to teach, educate because of our education 236 00:21:00,559 --> 00:21:03,680 goes down like it's being going down, we are going to be in trouble. 237 00:21:03,759 --> 00:21:07,359 People. We are going to be in trouble if you don't have the 238 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:12,480 people that say the country south of Tucson is Mexico. We're in trouble, 239 00:21:14,839 --> 00:21:21,000 we really are. And how would you expect them to vote? The only 240 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,920 thing they're gonna vote on is what they can get, what is free for 241 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:30,359 them. What are they going to be able to benefit from. You're asking 242 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:37,640 people to go through and understand the constitution, what our right saw. You 243 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:44,599 know where they learned? They learn from social media. So maybe we got 244 00:21:44,599 --> 00:21:52,759 to use social media to start teaching basics to our children. The biggest thing. 245 00:21:52,759 --> 00:21:55,480 I remember the advertisement when we were trying to get out of drugs. 246 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:02,720 Here's a frying pan. This is an egg. This is your brain on 247 00:22:02,799 --> 00:22:07,480 drugs. When they put the egg into the frying pan and adjust bubbles up 248 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,440 and fries I still remember that commercial, this is your brain on drugs. 249 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:22,720 It's effective if we can put the right things forward. It's embarrassing that kids 250 00:22:22,759 --> 00:22:32,720 today, high school kids don't know the difference between countries and states. I 251 00:22:32,759 --> 00:22:36,200 mean, I don't know, I don't know, But yet we worry about 252 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,240 all these other things. How are we expected to do it? And that's 253 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:44,279 why we're divided. That's why our nation is so divided, because what we're 254 00:22:44,279 --> 00:22:48,680 teaching kids politically and trying to get the versions out. We are dividing us 255 00:22:49,039 --> 00:22:55,200 between things that one believes in the other rather than no one's educated enough to 256 00:22:55,279 --> 00:22:57,119 understand the difference. And if they want, I guess what, most people 257 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:02,920 who are in the middle, most people will compromise. It's a politicians that 258 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,079 have done this down and put it in this place. We're gonna be talking 259 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:10,359 a lot about different things we got. We got a whole show coming up. 260 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,119 Stay tuned, Thanks for listening. This is Dan Greenberg. This is 261 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:22,200 the money Bunting shows. Say it's only a papent sailing over cardboard scene, 262 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:30,759 but it wouldn't be make believe if you believed in me. Yes, it's 263 00:23:30,799 --> 00:23:40,279 only Canvasky hanging over land tree, but it wouldn't be me believe if you 264 00:23:41,039 --> 00:23:48,960 believed in me went out an'll love. It's a hog, it's talk worry 265 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:59,720 without love. It's some meality believing a penny hockey. It's a monnament me 266 00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:10,559 in lead word yst But it wouldn't be believe if you and he did mean 267 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:37,240 yes. Welcome back everybody. This is Dean Greenberg. This is the money 268 00:24:37,319 --> 00:24:41,440 Batty Show. Today we have Todd Glick and Dylan Greenberg with us. Dave 269 00:24:41,519 --> 00:24:45,640 Sherwood took a trip to California to go see his grandchildren. Good for him. 270 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,640 He needs to take more trucks. He's so funny. He's so funny. 271 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,279 The kid. It's one hundred, one hundred miles earlier. He calculated 272 00:24:53,279 --> 00:24:56,799 his outright to get there right when the kids are getting out as cool, 273 00:24:56,559 --> 00:25:00,880 did he really? Yeah, listen, I'm so happy he goes to see 274 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,359 his grandchildren and he has a good time. It's the only vacation he likes 275 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,440 to do. Other than that, he likes to be in the office and 276 00:25:06,559 --> 00:25:10,599 hike and hike. He's a good hike up. Remember, Yeah, what 277 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,480 was that two years ago? Now? Yeah, that's great. Well, 278 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,480 wait, I guess someone else has to do the weather report. I'm just 279 00:25:15,519 --> 00:25:23,680 kidding ev today, not e d eb. Obviously, the big news on 280 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:29,960 the market's weather report was Navidio's big earnings report that came out on Wednesday after 281 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,720 the close. I mean, they just absolutely killed it. Yeah, but 282 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,720 you just see what suck did, right, Well, it went up to 283 00:25:36,759 --> 00:25:38,119 five ten and after hours, and then the next day it was up. 284 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:44,720 It ended up ended that day at four sixty, and then it released its 285 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,200 earnings that afternoon, and then after hours it was five ten. It opened 286 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:52,079 the Thursday morning at like five oh five, then slowly went down and ended 287 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,880 the day flat, and then on Friday it was down four percent just and 288 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,559 it was down twenty points at one time, and Friday came back to Clement. 289 00:25:59,039 --> 00:26:03,799 But it's not it's stock that you trade to stock you hold right now 290 00:26:03,039 --> 00:26:07,960 very time. It's it's one of those stocks that come in in your lifetime 291 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:14,599 that all the signs are together on it, where you might not get it 292 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,240 right, but the stock for the next couple of years. It's they're the 293 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,079 ones that are driving AI. They're the ones that are actually making money. 294 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,720 All these other fringe companies that everyone wants to buy because it's part of AILI 295 00:26:26,839 --> 00:26:30,240 dot com. You gotta learn your lesson from that. Okay, the dot 296 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:37,680 com company went down, except a couple of them. The the the AI 297 00:26:37,759 --> 00:26:41,839 companies right now. You stay with the good quality companies. And the video 298 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,119 is the one making money off that. Michaels are spending a fortune, met 299 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,480 is spending a fortune off of it. Yes, they're still making good money 300 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,880 and their stocks are going up, but the video is the one selling them 301 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:53,200 chips. I mean the proofs and the numbers, right, I mean when 302 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,440 you see quarterly reports that are just as they're just beating expectations. No one 303 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:02,759 even has that. It's not a price to magic ratio. They're really selling 304 00:27:02,759 --> 00:27:04,640 stuff. It's really on the books, right, It's not like Tesla where 305 00:27:04,759 --> 00:27:08,960 they're hypothecating growth. So what was the lesson you learned this week? And 306 00:27:10,559 --> 00:27:12,640 well, it seems like it was a profit taking lesson? Right, I 307 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:17,000 mean when it runs up, going into it, you want it? You 308 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:18,839 you you you went ahead and said, okay, this ain't going up anymore, 309 00:27:19,559 --> 00:27:23,920 and you sold into it before the earnings came out, and for good 310 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:30,680 reason. History would tell you that that happens sometimes. But right when off 311 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,400 stock is too high, it makes sense. But in the videous fanness, 312 00:27:34,559 --> 00:27:38,079 it did run up because the earnings are good. It's pulled back on profit 313 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:42,640 taking of people buying into it and having having too big of a position and 314 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,599 cutting the back. And then some fear too that it is going to go 315 00:27:45,599 --> 00:27:49,000 all the way down. Yeah, but listen, when I've seen this in 316 00:27:49,039 --> 00:27:55,400 my in the history of it, where I see all the analysts raising their 317 00:27:55,960 --> 00:28:00,799 prices. Are the price of targets, the stock could come down, but 318 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,319 it then gives them that much more to go up. It's just I think 319 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,720 for you or two they knock it out of the palk. We talked about 320 00:28:07,759 --> 00:28:11,200 it last week too, how they introduced their new chip that they haven't even 321 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,880 started selling yet, which is going to be able to make everything with the 322 00:28:14,839 --> 00:28:18,440 AI quicker than it already is. And I already sold out of the current 323 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,480 ship for what months, and that ten thousand dollars a chip. They didn't 324 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,480 price out the new one. But it's the idea that there's just decades ahead 325 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,440 of other AI companies. Yeah, I don't think there's any competitors either. 326 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,359 I mean I've been looking at AMD for a while now, and that's really 327 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,960 the closest two in the video that's out there right now. They were down 328 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:37,480 eight percent on Thursday when the video ended flat, right, and they started 329 00:28:37,519 --> 00:28:41,200 the day up two percent, right. Well, there's a lot of profit 330 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:45,480 taking going on. We came in to Friday also with the Federal Reserve chairman 331 00:28:45,559 --> 00:28:48,119 talking Powell. That was kind of a weird day two. The markets went 332 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:53,160 high when down Pig came back and finished up on the upside. We have 333 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:59,160 a lot of selling into rallies right now. There's a lot of resistance mitigating 334 00:28:59,279 --> 00:29:02,200 risk right now, so important we keep talking about it all the time. 335 00:29:02,559 --> 00:29:04,880 We're coming into September. I could see a rally next week a little bit. 336 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:10,359 We're coming into labor day, I mean maybe two percent of something maximum 337 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,559 three possibly, I could see it rallying a little bit, but then I 338 00:29:12,599 --> 00:29:15,240 see it coming all the way right back down lower them. Where we were 339 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,960 into month of September and October, Well, if you're looking at historics, 340 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,039 I mean the market rallies into three day weekends, which is going to come 341 00:29:23,079 --> 00:29:26,480 up for the first weekend of September, and then the market has been down 342 00:29:26,519 --> 00:29:30,400 over all in September historically, So if we're going off that, yeah, 343 00:29:30,519 --> 00:29:33,960 we could see a little rally and then pull back, but then it does 344 00:29:33,039 --> 00:29:37,079 tend to come back in October. Yeah. When jero Po spoke today, 345 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,519 well Friday at Jackson Hole, there was not a lot of things that he 346 00:29:41,599 --> 00:29:45,000 was saying that was spooking the markets, but really the developments in the labor 347 00:29:45,039 --> 00:29:48,519 market was where he was really spending a lot of time on saying that he 348 00:29:48,599 --> 00:29:51,720 likes that the fact that he's not seeing the growth that he was seeing a 349 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:56,200 couple of months ago. And that's really his concern of seeing continue wage growth 350 00:29:56,480 --> 00:30:00,359 continue. I mean that's that's leads to inflation. And he came out and 351 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,319 said we're stayings firm on our two percent target. You see a whole bunch 352 00:30:03,319 --> 00:30:06,279 of people trying to say, maybe they go to three, maybe they give 353 00:30:06,359 --> 00:30:08,960 up on the two percent fet share pouces. That's not happening at all. 354 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,960 It's never even hinted at it. Now. His biggest problem is we have 355 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:19,279 a workforce that keeps shrinking. Yeah, okay, which means then work then 356 00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:23,400 the prices are going high and productivity is going down, okay, because people 357 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:30,200 are getting paid more wanting to do less. The new indicator is the core 358 00:30:30,279 --> 00:30:36,279 PC and wage growth, right, wage growth. And the problem is to 359 00:30:36,359 --> 00:30:38,480 try to get wage growth out of this. It's how you're going to get 360 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,880 it when when you're at three and a half percent, three point six, 361 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:48,359 But send unemployment, Yeah, they have to get them off free money. 362 00:30:49,559 --> 00:30:55,759 You get them more free money. Someone's going to go to work or or 363 00:30:56,799 --> 00:31:02,599 instead again in details, we change the immigration policy, okay, we actually 364 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,279 bringing me and educate them and getting them into jobs that we need. Yeah, 365 00:31:06,319 --> 00:31:07,920 I think a lot of people don't realize the demographics of the United States. 366 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:14,119 We are continuously giving left, birthing less people each year, right, 367 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:18,240 so the millennials are just not getting I guess, how do you say this, 368 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,119 birthing children the same rate that baby boomers were, So you're not replacing 369 00:31:23,119 --> 00:31:26,839 the labor force. There's more people dying than people are being born. It's 370 00:31:26,839 --> 00:31:29,119 down quite a bit too. Back in the baby boomers, back in the 371 00:31:29,119 --> 00:31:32,799 fifties and all and sixties were having an average three point two kids, and 372 00:31:32,799 --> 00:31:36,359 now it's like two point six. Yeah, kids, And it doesn't sound 373 00:31:36,359 --> 00:31:41,240 like a big drop. It's one. It's one kid for family, yeah, 374 00:31:41,319 --> 00:31:44,480 right, and there's no law on it like China had where now they're 375 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,000 experiencing theirs. And it's not like our economy states stagnant since the baby boomers. 376 00:31:48,119 --> 00:31:51,960 I mean, it was very common. My parents friends had eight nine 377 00:31:52,079 --> 00:31:57,079 seven kids at four and that wasn't a lot. Okay, that was like 378 00:31:57,119 --> 00:32:04,039 average apparently, yeah, kind of from the fifties and to sixty fifty seven 379 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,680 to fifty eight sixty seven. Now it's about two and a half. Yeah, 380 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,480 I mean, and a lot of people think it's because of the urbanization 381 00:32:09,559 --> 00:32:13,960 of everything, like when you get more into cities. I don't know how 382 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,720 true that is. It's also you can't afford it. You want to give 383 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:21,359 your kids a good life and put him into college. I went to college 384 00:32:21,359 --> 00:32:24,799 who was five thousand a year for tuition. Now that same college is sixty 385 00:32:24,799 --> 00:32:28,960 thousand dollars a year. There was a thing saying that since I think nineteen 386 00:32:29,079 --> 00:32:32,079 seventy, everything has done, like the housing prices, gas, all this 387 00:32:32,079 --> 00:32:37,880 stuff has done about ten to twelve times increase, But the wages and the 388 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,920 average salaries only done like six or six times that much. So it's not 389 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,319 keeping up with everything else inflating that much. And that's the issue that we 390 00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:46,599 run into. And then like, okay, we can't afford more kids. 391 00:32:47,839 --> 00:32:53,880 It's not even six times. Because I look at your grandparents when was it 392 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:59,119 nurse thinking about twenty two twenty three, there's no way that you would be 393 00:32:59,119 --> 00:33:02,960 making six times twenty one hundred and twenty thousand. Yeah. Yeah, in 394 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,839 New York. Yeah, it depends on in New York. It could be 395 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:12,119 grandpa, my dad. What for the phone company? Okay, he was 396 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,599 making forty five fifty, You think they would make it two fifty three hundred 397 00:33:15,599 --> 00:33:19,279 now, no way, Yeah, but I mean keep in mind, I 398 00:33:19,279 --> 00:33:22,480 mean, New York's a different inflation zone than than other areas. Yeah, 399 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:27,519 because I think one hundred thousand dollars there, it's the same as about sixty 400 00:33:27,599 --> 00:33:30,359 here. No, it is, it is. Well, he talk in 401 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,480 New York City though obviously there's yeah, there's different demographics there. Yeah, 402 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,160 Okay, Long Island's a little cheaper probably than Manhattan. You know, so 403 00:33:37,519 --> 00:33:40,720 looking at what we look, I mean the next FED meetings end of September, 404 00:33:40,839 --> 00:33:44,720 right, it didn't sound like he's really wanting to raise race. It 405 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:46,240 sounds like he wants more economic data to come out. So it sounds like 406 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:50,839 he's just gonna hold so he wants the economy to go downhill. Yeah, 407 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,319 so we can stop wasting interest rates. Yes, he did say he's prepared 408 00:33:53,319 --> 00:33:55,680 the raise interest rates so if he has to. Yeah, and didn't say 409 00:33:55,680 --> 00:34:00,400 the word cut once. So he's not even thinking because there's still they're still 410 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,519 stronghold on two percent inflation, right, Yeah, and that's what's gonna happen. 411 00:34:02,559 --> 00:34:05,920 Then it's gonna sit in do the other thing you have. Right now, 412 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,880 the market is gonna go up. It's gonna be light by. Most 413 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,760 people are going on vacation. We've been on vacation back East. On vacation. 414 00:34:12,079 --> 00:34:15,480 You don't usually go back to school to the end of August begin or 415 00:34:15,519 --> 00:34:19,119 after Labor day, so this is vacation time. Everybody after the labor day 416 00:34:19,159 --> 00:34:22,000 comes back. Then they start to set reassessing on where we are and what's 417 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,400 going on. And that's when you shoot for some reason, is when you 418 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,920 see the biggest declients. Yeah, why is that? If it's that whole 419 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,559 old monster who was selling May and go away and then you come back after 420 00:34:30,639 --> 00:34:36,280 Labor day. All the traders come back after vacation and they're back and September 421 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,760 is down. Well, because what happens is that if the markets are rallying 422 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:44,639 into it or not, the markets go down for whatever reason, all right, 423 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,159 and that's when they come back and buy again September October. But you 424 00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:52,199 could also make a case that the introduction of more and more automated trading systems 425 00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,159 still of course, that's what I believe too. I mean, I'm all 426 00:34:55,159 --> 00:34:58,920 over in Europe and I'm able to trade. Oh, that's all I'm talking 427 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:00,559 about. Back in the day before that was a thing used to sell them 428 00:35:00,599 --> 00:35:02,840 and go wait, that's not a thing anyway. Back in the day, 429 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,800 how do you think we used to do trades? You to send it through 430 00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:08,000 the like at the bank. You send it through the thing, you write 431 00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,760 it down on a on a piece of paper or whatever. Your order sheet 432 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,760 you had you had to buy and sell sheet. You had to fill out 433 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,960 this whole ticket. You had to go to what was called the window. 434 00:35:17,599 --> 00:35:22,400 You had to give it to the the the wire operator at the window. 435 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:28,360 Okay, she took it, she put it in the order maybe thirty minutes, 436 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,159 forty five minutes later, if you're lucky, you got back to Phil. 437 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:35,679 How many days did it take to settle when that was when we first 438 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,679 start, when I think that first started was five Yeah, five days, 439 00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,559 five days. They're about to turn it down to one day settlement. Yeah. 440 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:45,000 Well, because everything's electronic, people had certificates, they had to bring 441 00:35:45,079 --> 00:35:46,480 them in and stuff like that. All right, we'll be back. It's 442 00:35:46,519 --> 00:35:50,960 the money about his show. I appreciate your listening. This is Stan Greenberg, 443 00:35:51,039 --> 00:35:55,400 and it is the money about the show. Hang it all, but 444 00:35:55,599 --> 00:36:07,559 it wouldn't. Well, welcome back everybody, and Dean and Todd and Dylan 445 00:36:07,599 --> 00:36:12,480 and we're bringing you the Money Matters show. Did we do the the market 446 00:36:12,559 --> 00:36:15,320 update A numbers this week? I did? I did at the beginning. 447 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:20,320 I want to I want to bring up because before we get off this AI 448 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:28,800 subject. But the other day I had to get into my Exfinity account because 449 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:34,760 I wanted to change things around. You cannot talk to anybody anymore. I 450 00:36:36,039 --> 00:36:39,320 get getting how can I help you, sir? I like to go ahead 451 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:43,239 and do this. Okay? One minute they come back, and I kept 452 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,440 having questions and I finally got to the frustration part. Can I speak to 453 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:51,119 a human please? I can help you. What do you need? Can 454 00:36:51,159 --> 00:36:53,880 I speak to somebody that can actually have a conversation? I think I can 455 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,960 help you. What can I do? This went on for ten minutes. 456 00:36:59,119 --> 00:37:00,679 Ten minutes. They say, well, if I can't help you, I 457 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:05,920 will give you a live chat. Okay, I give me a live agent. 458 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:07,599 But I think I can help you. First let me know what you 459 00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:13,880 need helping. I was so frustrated with the stupid AI stuff and not talking 460 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,800 to anybody because I didn't even know. I said, how do I know 461 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:21,199 this is the best what I need? I just made some changes. Tell 462 00:37:21,199 --> 00:37:23,599 me what you're looking for? Then I finally said, okay, do I 463 00:37:23,679 --> 00:37:27,719 have this, this, and this. No, you don't have this, 464 00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,559 but if you want it, I said, well how do I get it? 465 00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:31,639 Well, you have to do this and it's going to cause you this 466 00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:35,440 much money, I said, but I already pay for those other things. 467 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,599 Do those come off? I don't know if I can help you. Give 468 00:37:38,639 --> 00:37:42,639 me a live agent. I need a live agent. Finally I got a 469 00:37:42,639 --> 00:37:45,559 live agent. It wasn't live. It was still texting on a computer. 470 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:50,519 But at least they had a conversation with you. It wasn't AI. Stupid 471 00:37:50,559 --> 00:37:52,119 answers when you go on a phone. If you're on a phone call and 472 00:37:52,159 --> 00:37:55,679 it just keeps telling you through AI stuff to say representative and most of the 473 00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,719 time I'll send you to a live person. Sometimes you can pound nine zero 474 00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:04,119 nine starts. I will tell you right now if that's the way the world's 475 00:38:04,159 --> 00:38:09,559 going to it is with only AI. God bless you guys. It sucks. 476 00:38:10,199 --> 00:38:14,719 You can't because you can't have a deep conversation. You can't get them 477 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,039 to help you do anything. Yeah, if you guys go that here, 478 00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:21,760 forget it. I better not be around. Well, there's there's something actually, 479 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,000 it's funny you bring that up because it kind of leads into what I 480 00:38:23,039 --> 00:38:28,519 wanted to talk about with robo advisors is obviously we understand that robo advisors really 481 00:38:28,559 --> 00:38:35,039 came big into like twenty fifteen, early to twenty tens, where robo advisors 482 00:38:35,039 --> 00:38:38,280 really started to being used for people who don't know. Robo advisors are really 483 00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:42,480 just what it kind of sounds like, a robot advisor. There's no human 484 00:38:42,559 --> 00:38:45,239 that you interact with. It's just they put you into a model, you 485 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,519 tell it what you want, and then it just does it for you. 486 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,880 But what a lot of these robo advisors have been finding, for example, 487 00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:58,039 betterment, they are now introducing humans to enter into the equation. They added 488 00:38:58,119 --> 00:39:01,199 human advice back in twenty seventeen, and most robo advisors now are taking that 489 00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:05,639 hybrid approach because you're right, Deing, people do want to have a deeper 490 00:39:05,639 --> 00:39:08,280 conversation, not just the surface level, especially when it comes to something as 491 00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:14,760 important as their financial life. Well, humans actually ask questions back to find 492 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,320 out what you want. That's what's amazing about this business. No, you're 493 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,719 a client, but you had all these financial plans, all these things. 494 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:25,119 Oh it's all on computer. Okay, you know, just answer these questions, 495 00:39:25,639 --> 00:39:30,719 how do you think about our questions that we actually ask a client passpects, 496 00:39:31,199 --> 00:39:35,519 We find out everything about them. It's the only way you can deal 497 00:39:35,559 --> 00:39:37,199 with it. They had ground children, all these other stuff. What do 498 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,679 they want You get a feeling of what they really are about. Well, 499 00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:45,679 what they realize going to twenty seventeen is that it's not just a trading mechanism 500 00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,519 and algorithm like they were trying to go to that this business is still a 501 00:39:47,559 --> 00:39:52,880 relationship business, and that's why they need the human element that robots don't offer. 502 00:39:52,639 --> 00:39:58,159 Right, there's only one advisor that robot advisors still completely robotic. It's 503 00:39:58,199 --> 00:40:00,320 Wealth Front, But like I said, Better Men and all the other one 504 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:05,639 wealth Front okay, but all the other ones like Better have a hybrid approach. 505 00:40:05,639 --> 00:40:09,280 And Vanguard's hybrid option overseas far more assets than the purely digital robo advisor. 506 00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:13,960 They managed about two hundred and seventy one billion versus thirteen billion. What's 507 00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:15,599 the same idea? He just had his issues with Exfinity. Right, when 508 00:40:15,639 --> 00:40:19,679 you have an issue with your financial stuff and it's your money, and you 509 00:40:19,679 --> 00:40:21,679 want to get an answer, and you can't because you gotta go through all 510 00:40:21,679 --> 00:40:23,719 these hoops on AI. You're not going to be happy. Yeah, I'm 511 00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:28,880 not even comfortable like doing it all the zoom or something, you know, 512 00:40:29,039 --> 00:40:31,119 like like in these big cities they all get it on the zoom, But 513 00:40:31,159 --> 00:40:34,039 how do you even get these people? You know what I'm saying. Not 514 00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:39,800 only that, I mean eighty percent of language is communicated through the body. 515 00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:43,960 Thank you. If you just have the words, that's only twenty percent of 516 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,199 the equation. The body language gives you a lot of emotional feedback. Good 517 00:40:47,199 --> 00:40:51,920 thing the radio can't see that. But at the end of the day, 518 00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,679 it's important to actually have a relationship with your advisor, right and especially if 519 00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,440 you're just looking on the other side of a screen. How can you really 520 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,679 have a relate if you don't have any relationships? Think about what this is 521 00:41:02,679 --> 00:41:08,360 doing to real relationships. Okay, don't think it doesn't spill over to human 522 00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:13,679 relationships, married couples and stuff like that. As we're growing up, you 523 00:41:13,679 --> 00:41:17,000 guys are a little bit different. You want a relationship, and see how 524 00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:22,480 hard it is to find someone of the opposite sex to actually beat deep want 525 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:27,280 to have a relationship, They all say it, but nobody understands how to 526 00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,280 have one. It's called conversation, like pick up the phone and talk, 527 00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,800 not texts. Oh you talk to that person? Oh what do they say? 528 00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,039 Oh I don't know, we just texts. I mean that's conversation. 529 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:43,760 Passion is incredible. People don't have passion anymore. They're so afraid, let's 530 00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,840 just say mediocre this business. You stay right where we are, the roots, 531 00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,599 the old school roots, they still work. Yeah, but at the 532 00:41:50,679 --> 00:41:52,360 end of the day, a lot of people do still have passion, and 533 00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,639 a lot of people do still like the converse human to human, but it's 534 00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,239 getting less and less, it seems. But then the people that do still 535 00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,760 like doing that tend to be more outgoing. They're more successful too. It's 536 00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:07,400 more happy. And how many times actually pick up a phone and talk to 537 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:12,159 a girl my mom not your mom? Will talking about it? Like the 538 00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,760 ask a girl out for a date. No, it doesn't happen. It 539 00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,199 doesn't happen until probably like you, like on a third date or something like 540 00:42:17,199 --> 00:42:21,119 that. So what would happen if you tried it? But they think you're 541 00:42:21,159 --> 00:42:23,079 weird? Yes, I don't know my age, No, not really, 542 00:42:23,159 --> 00:42:25,639 I think a lot of my age. I mean, if you call someone 543 00:42:25,639 --> 00:42:30,159 it's weird you FaceTime them, it's less weird. That's how it is. 544 00:42:30,639 --> 00:42:34,039 You FaceTime someone, it's less weird. But that's even weird in the sense 545 00:42:34,079 --> 00:42:38,360 that people younger than you only converse on Snapchat, no texting. They don't 546 00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,719 text. They ask for their snapchat, not their number anymore, which at 547 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,559 least make Snapchat like a company that you think might last, no for stock 548 00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:50,079 going back to the markets, might last if they have that demographic, they 549 00:42:50,079 --> 00:42:52,639 actually will have one. Yeah, I don't know, a little crazy and 550 00:42:52,679 --> 00:42:54,480 it's gonna be text at the end of the day. And I think there 551 00:42:54,559 --> 00:42:58,920 is that. It's the same thing as social media, right, people who 552 00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:02,559 are don't ever talking public. They're the biggest mouse on social media because they're 553 00:43:02,559 --> 00:43:06,639 behind the screen. It's protection, right, you're not we don't have to 554 00:43:06,639 --> 00:43:08,280 be worried about if you get rejected. Who cares. It wasn't really you 555 00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,880 that got rejected. It's your digital self, right, you're not connected. 556 00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,039 So it's like that separation of self. I don't get out. People have 557 00:43:15,119 --> 00:43:17,199 hundreds of texts on red though, and they're like, oh, I just 558 00:43:17,199 --> 00:43:21,519 suck at texting. It's like but they don't call them back or yeah that 559 00:43:22,039 --> 00:43:23,960 or like the conversation. People won't have a voicemail set up, yeah, 560 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,000 or they're not a listen to a voicemails. A voicemail box is full, 561 00:43:29,079 --> 00:43:31,840 you know, it's like, it's it's pretty easy. It's it's it's it's 562 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:37,360 a sad commentary between them not knowing states and countries, not wanting to communicate, 563 00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,840 not wanting to talk. But when we talk, where do we go 564 00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:44,760 as a country? This is all this is all different. I mean, 565 00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:50,719 it's you know, we've gone from a united collective to more and more individual, 566 00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,119 individualistic, selfish. Yes, that's why I will not hire anyone that 567 00:43:54,119 --> 00:43:58,599 has ever played a team sport again, no eye and scene. But going 568 00:43:58,599 --> 00:44:00,360 back to the robots real quick, I mean, the best robo advisor ranked 569 00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:07,000 on all things in terms of total financial planning, transparient conflict transparency and conflicts 570 00:44:07,039 --> 00:44:10,559 features, customer experience the whole nine yards. Schwab Intelligent Portfolios led the way, 571 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:16,639 Meryl Guided is the second, and the bottom was so far and better 572 00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:22,760 Mints, So take that for what you will. And the best performing robo 573 00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:27,920 advisor was Fidelity to Go on a five year annualized basis and wealthfront so take 574 00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,719 that away. It will Thank you, mister Robot. I appreciate it. 575 00:44:32,559 --> 00:44:37,920 You know obvious, yes, obviously we had the Central Bank with the Fed. 576 00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:40,559 Did you see what the China China did on Monday? They did not 577 00:44:40,679 --> 00:44:44,400 lower rates as much as the market was expecting, right, which is kind 578 00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,239 of surprising. You'd think, why wouldn't they You know, everyone was expecting 579 00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:52,440 it, and they're having a lot of problems over there, and you know 580 00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:54,840 they're they're trying to help the mortgage policies, they're trying to lower the rates 581 00:44:54,840 --> 00:45:01,360 a little bit, but why wouldn't they lower him completely? He's not an 582 00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:08,840 economist. Is all about communism, not the economies. He hasn't been schooled 583 00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:15,360 on that, okay, because in communism they control everything. You make it 584 00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,039 too much money, we take some of it back. You don't have enough 585 00:45:17,039 --> 00:45:20,119 money, we give it to you, but just what we want in return. 586 00:45:20,599 --> 00:45:24,199 That's how he looks at economics. Yeah, his everything is about military, 587 00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:29,280 be the strongest military, take over all these areas in the world. 588 00:45:29,679 --> 00:45:31,119 That's what he's doing well. And then they're also trying to do the whole 589 00:45:31,159 --> 00:45:36,719 bricks thing. I'll lead that. They are leading that talking about how they're 590 00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,679 going to devalue the dollar and this, and that's putting a lot of fear 591 00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:42,840 into people's minds because they see it on media and they don't really know what's 592 00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:45,159 going on. But at the end of the day, the dollar is still 593 00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,920 the main currency being traded in oil, which they keep That's the biggest one 594 00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:53,239 is that they talk about how India is using rupees in the ruble and stuff 595 00:45:53,280 --> 00:46:00,280 like that to trade oil. But the Indian India is foreign minister. Y, 596 00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:04,760 I'll find the word. It's finance minister. Their finance minister said that 597 00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,119 it's not even gonna happen for a long time. If the dollar loses value 598 00:46:07,119 --> 00:46:09,440 in the trade of the whole world, it's going to take a long time. 599 00:46:09,639 --> 00:46:12,800 He's like, I wish the rupie would be the main one, but 600 00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,920 it's just I'm realistic. It's not going to lose value like people think it 601 00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:19,880 is right now. He's telling this to CNBC, and he's because they are 602 00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:22,519 still the main dominant currency is the dollar trading around the world. And you 603 00:46:22,559 --> 00:46:25,679 can't just stop that, even though the media is making it seem like they 604 00:46:25,679 --> 00:46:30,800 are just stopping. Because back to dollar, okay, and and what really 605 00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:36,239 backs the dollar, right, Let's get real detailed. Well, you should 606 00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,079 be gold, but it's not gold. What backs our dollars are military? 607 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:43,159 Okay, it really is. If anyone disputes us, we go in and 608 00:46:43,159 --> 00:46:46,039 we put our military on that lane. Right, that's what That's just deep. 609 00:46:46,119 --> 00:46:52,320 I like it. So as long as we have the world strongest military. 610 00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:54,320 I don't think, well, that's why she only wants to do with 611 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:58,760 the military. He thinks that's the answer to It does seem like she's trying 612 00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:02,159 to go less way. He's not trying to continue the globalistic trend, the 613 00:47:02,199 --> 00:47:07,239 globalism right. He wants to be more centralized and not dependent on the external 614 00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,719 countries. It'll coming up to the heartbreak when we come back. We're going 615 00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,559 to talk about how do you plan for all this? We're get in a 616 00:47:14,559 --> 00:47:17,639 little bit more details, how do you mitigate the risk? And I'm gonna 617 00:47:17,679 --> 00:47:22,679 talk a little bit more of you know why I'm in a yellow flag and 618 00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,519 not a red flag yet. I'm looking for a big market turndown. But 619 00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:29,960 it means that we probably don't have a big upside at all right now, 620 00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,679 So be cautious, be careful, and that's the stance you need to take. 621 00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:36,440 We'll be right back it's Stein Greenberg, just the money Amotter show. 622 00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:49,119 Me. Yes, it's all Canisky hanging all the theletrink, but it wouldn't 623 00:47:52,679 --> 00:47:59,159 welcome back everybody to the second hour of the Money Matter Show to repeat the 624 00:47:59,199 --> 00:48:01,880 markets this week, we're actually up a little bit, except the doubt that 625 00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:05,800 that was down a half a one percent. S and P was up just 626 00:48:06,079 --> 00:48:09,079 under one percent, NASTAC up two point three percent. For the month, 627 00:48:09,079 --> 00:48:14,239 they're all down. That was down three and a half, s ANDPS down 628 00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:19,800 four, nastac's down over five, and the equal weightedt SMPS down over five 629 00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,960 also. So what does this mean, Well, it means in August we're 630 00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:27,320 going into September. It means where's the money to keep making markets higher? 631 00:48:27,639 --> 00:48:32,440 Interest rates keep going higher? You know, the bottom line is we continue 632 00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:37,039 to tell people to be cautious. Right Gold was up a little bit this 633 00:48:37,079 --> 00:48:39,360 week, Oil was down a little bit this week. So not too many 634 00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:43,880 moves in the commodity space. The interest rates didn't. I mean, they 635 00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,239 ticked up higher and then they kind of came down a little bit after Drone 636 00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:50,719 House boke. So if you believe like we do, to be cautious right 637 00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:53,519 now until we get through this interest rate thing until we start seeing some things 638 00:48:53,559 --> 00:48:58,760 turn, until the markets actually fall off. See we go through the recession, 639 00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:01,800 we churn. But the idea is you always have to be prepared beforehand. 640 00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,119 And the only way you're gonna do this is you put a plan together 641 00:49:05,679 --> 00:49:08,159 and you guys can talk a little bit about the plan and what you've been 642 00:49:08,199 --> 00:49:14,679 seeing and how it's been working. It blows my mind on how many people 643 00:49:15,159 --> 00:49:17,920 want a plan but don't have one right now, twenty nine percent of people 644 00:49:19,559 --> 00:49:24,559 that have investable money I have a plan. Twenty nine percent to people have 645 00:49:24,599 --> 00:49:30,679 a plan. Sixty I think it was sixty seven percent of people said they 646 00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:35,719 should have a plan. That's more than half don't have a plan. That's 647 00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,639 say they should. I'm not sure who the other thirty percent is, but 648 00:49:39,159 --> 00:49:40,920 yeah, And at the end of the day, the main thing that plan 649 00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:43,840 does is help us get to know you, and that's how you build a 650 00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:45,400 relationship. Like we were talking about in the first hour. I mean, 651 00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:49,360 we met with a couple of people last week and we find out exactly what 652 00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,119 they want, where they are right now, how they're invested, and the 653 00:49:52,159 --> 00:49:55,679 reasons as to why they're not happy with their investments. It's not like they're 654 00:49:55,679 --> 00:49:59,280 in bad stocks or anything, any penny stocks. They're like that, we're 655 00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:01,519 just tanking. It was what's their allocation was not in line with their risk 656 00:50:01,559 --> 00:50:05,440 tolerance. But they never really looked at it. They just gave it to 657 00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,320 somebody years ago and just left it and didn't look at it. But now 658 00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:09,119 they're looking at it and they say, yeah, I don't really want this 659 00:50:09,199 --> 00:50:14,400 much risk anymore. I'm hitting retirement. I'm in retirement. I want more 660 00:50:14,519 --> 00:50:17,360 security, more guarantee in that sense. And when they say words like that 661 00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:21,840 and everything like that, we get to an idea of who they are and 662 00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,679 what their goals are through retirement. And really the only way that can happen 663 00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:29,159 is if we go through that financial plan and help you figure out where you 664 00:50:29,159 --> 00:50:30,599 want to go through retirement. That's what the best part about it is. 665 00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,880 Yeah, and the financial plan is not just for the person that's going into 666 00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:39,519 retirement in five years or in retirement. It's for everyone. I mean, 667 00:50:39,599 --> 00:50:44,000 for example, we had a family that came in this week in their forties 668 00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,840 and they have, you know, the common goals. They want to pay 669 00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:53,800 off college for their youngest, they want to build up a retirement nest egg 670 00:50:53,960 --> 00:51:00,280 enough to satisfy their living spending that they're currently living at. Because oviously, 671 00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:04,440 if you're spending a hundred twenty thousand dollars now, in twenty years with inflation, 672 00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,880 it's going to be a lot lot more. So you can't think of, 673 00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:08,760 Okay, how am I going to get to a one hundred twenty thousand 674 00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:12,360 dollars a yearly income because by the time you get that, that's not going 675 00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:15,159 to be a quality of life that you actually want to live. And it's 676 00:51:15,159 --> 00:51:19,119 hard for people to really think when they're twenty years away from retirement, how 677 00:51:19,199 --> 00:51:22,239 valuable is this to me? Right? Because it's like so many things can 678 00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,199 change, and that's exactly it. Things do change, But if you never 679 00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:29,519 start, how do you know how it changed in the first place? Right, 680 00:51:29,559 --> 00:51:32,199 You're just spitballing at that point. That's why when we have someone in 681 00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:36,239 their thirties, forties or fifties, we want to meet once a year, 682 00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:39,599 we want to redo the financial plan and things will change every single year, 683 00:51:39,679 --> 00:51:44,039 whether it be income to a slide amount which will change Social Security and a 684 00:51:44,079 --> 00:51:46,480 slide amount which changes for one K contributions in a slide amount. All these 685 00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:50,320 things are things to look at as well as life insurance, especially for the 686 00:51:50,559 --> 00:51:53,199 individuals in their thirties and forties and fifties that have dependents that rely on them, 687 00:51:53,599 --> 00:51:59,599 especially single income households. If you're not exactly analyzing how much life insurance 688 00:51:59,599 --> 00:52:02,280 you need to protect your family, and then you never actually planned for it 689 00:52:02,519 --> 00:52:07,639 and that unfortunate event ever happens, that's a very bad place to be putting 690 00:52:07,639 --> 00:52:09,280 your family in. Yeah, you nail it to The younger you are, 691 00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:13,719 the more frequently you have to update your financial plan because there's a lot more 692 00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,960 variables that come into your life throughout the years, rather than when you're retired, 693 00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,679 you're pretty much set. You have your idea of you probably will travel 694 00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:22,719 more. That's the main thing we see. And then you want to leave 695 00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,400 stuff to your grandkids, to your kids or something like that, or a 696 00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:30,039 charity. But when you're forty or when you're in your thirties, you're gonna 697 00:52:30,039 --> 00:52:30,599 have all of a sudden, you have a kid, all of a sudden, 698 00:52:30,599 --> 00:52:34,039 you have another kid, or you all of a sudden get a huge 699 00:52:34,039 --> 00:52:37,239 promotion, and your lifestyle can change. But you want to see how that 700 00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:42,719 will fit going twenty years forward and it's so hard for people to actually understand 701 00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,280 compound interest, right because when you're twenty years away and say, okay, 702 00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,360 I'm putting ten thousand away into my formum on kay, what does that mean? 703 00:52:47,559 --> 00:52:51,000 What is that going to grow to? Well, we had that actually 704 00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,480 on last Monday, we went went with a client and she wanted her daughter 705 00:52:53,519 --> 00:52:58,840 to start learning about all that. She's nineteen and there's the idea that she 706 00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:00,239 didn't know much about to say, seeing she wanted to kind of show her 707 00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:04,960 and have us walk her through some different ideas of how to start saving and 708 00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:07,639 ways to get going and as a student as a college and you obviously aren't 709 00:53:07,679 --> 00:53:10,000 going to have a ton of money to save. That's not when you're making 710 00:53:10,039 --> 00:53:14,159 your money. But it's the idea of building the habit early is really what 711 00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:16,440 we try to drive home. You start building the habit early. What if 712 00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:20,519 it's putting twenty dollars away a month, whatever it can be for you. 713 00:53:20,519 --> 00:53:22,039 You build a habit that'll just keep growing as and then all of a sudden 714 00:53:22,039 --> 00:53:24,599 you're making more money in your thirties, you'll have the habit of Okay, 715 00:53:24,599 --> 00:53:30,159 I put this portion away of my end of my salary I'll put this away 716 00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:31,679 because I've already don This is what I'm gonna keep doing it, and it's 717 00:53:31,679 --> 00:53:35,039 the idea of compounding interests at it. We showed her if she started to 718 00:53:35,119 --> 00:53:38,800 say today, forty five years from now when she retires, or forty forty 719 00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:43,039 years from now when she retires, it's gonna be and you just max siwey 720 00:53:43,159 --> 00:53:45,679 roth iiraa is what we showed her. It was max siwey roth ira every 721 00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:50,239 year one or forty years one point five million dollars. If she waited twenty 722 00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,320 years to do it, so you cut it in a half, it would 723 00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,599 be two hundred and seventy four thousand dollars, and then it's okay, I 724 00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:59,599 have to make up for it another way, so you double your investments, 725 00:53:59,599 --> 00:54:02,000 but still wait twenty years. It didn't go to one point five million. 726 00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:06,000 It only went to five hundred and seventy four thousand, So it doesn't. 727 00:54:06,039 --> 00:54:09,599 The compounding interest is what really gets you, and the biggest doubles are later 728 00:54:09,679 --> 00:54:14,679 on in life when they're roughly sixty the most out of twenty, right, 729 00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:19,320 I mean, the most valuable resource asset. Any young person has its time 730 00:54:19,559 --> 00:54:24,239 exactly and it's so hard because humans don't understand compound interest. It does exponential 731 00:54:24,559 --> 00:54:28,679 does not compute in our heads, right, we are log meritic thinkers, 732 00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,320 So it just does not work or compute. I mean, for example, 733 00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:35,639 I've always told this people. If you try to fold a piece of paper, 734 00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:37,760 and theoretically you're able to fold a piece of paper unlimited amount of times, 735 00:54:38,199 --> 00:54:40,440 how many times would it take to fold a piece of paper on top 736 00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:45,880 of itself to reach from the Earth to the moon. I don't know. 737 00:54:45,559 --> 00:54:49,159 Yeah, a lot of people think, okay, one hundred or a thousand, 738 00:54:49,159 --> 00:54:52,880 a million times, it's only forty two times you fold a piece of 739 00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:54,599 paper on itself. Forty two times, that's the length from the Earth to 740 00:54:54,639 --> 00:54:58,159 the moon. And a lot of people that the nerds, there's no way, 741 00:54:58,199 --> 00:55:00,920 there's no way it is. That's the power of compounding interest. Because 742 00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:04,760 once you get up to those law of large numbers and you start doubling those 743 00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,519 large numbers, you're talking about huge increases. Yeah, and that's the power 744 00:55:07,559 --> 00:55:12,880 of compounding. So again, people have to realize that when you're young, 745 00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:15,159 the most valuable asset you have is time, and don't think that all the 746 00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:20,400 variables that come into your life is why you shouldn't start now. That's actually 747 00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:22,960 why you should. There's always an excuse as to why to start later. 748 00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:28,400 But everybody I've talked to in their thirties and forties that didn't start in their 749 00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:31,360 twenties wish they start in their twenties because and the same reason for everybody. 750 00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:35,440 They said, in my twenties, I didn't care in my twenties, my 751 00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:37,679 twenties, I wasn't making a bunch of money. I figured, I'll deal 752 00:55:37,679 --> 00:55:39,159 with it in my thirties. I'll deal with it when I have a family. 753 00:55:39,360 --> 00:55:42,519 I'll deal with it when I have a house already, or if I 754 00:55:42,519 --> 00:55:45,079 can buy a house, I'll deal with it then. Then it is already 755 00:55:45,079 --> 00:55:49,159 after the fact that it's too late. And every one of them said they 756 00:55:49,199 --> 00:55:51,559 wish they started earlier, and they wish they started in their twenties, and 757 00:55:51,599 --> 00:55:54,320 they wish they had somebody and tell them in their twenties just start, yeah, 758 00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:58,199 just start, and it'll work. I mean, you can't. But 759 00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:01,039 I've always seen this time and time again. People will find a way to 760 00:56:01,039 --> 00:56:05,280 spend the money. Yep. If they have a quality of life, say 761 00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:07,000 one hundred thousand, and they get bumped up to one fifty, they're gonna 762 00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,679 find a way to spend one fifty. They're gonna take more vacations, they're 763 00:56:09,679 --> 00:56:13,199 gonna buy nicer stuff. They're gonna just do it and always find a way. 764 00:56:13,199 --> 00:56:16,079 It's pretty easy to spend more money. Right. What everyone needs to 765 00:56:16,079 --> 00:56:21,639 do is find a percentage. Right. It's all based on proportions, right, 766 00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:27,760 Find a percentage of your take home pay that you can every month put 767 00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:30,719 away into some type of investment account, whether it be your four one K 768 00:56:30,079 --> 00:56:34,719 I Ray, whatever it may be. Those type of things are so important. 769 00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:37,039 Those needs to be. They need to be thought of as a bill. 770 00:56:37,639 --> 00:56:39,440 Right. When you have a car bill, that's not a negotiable thing 771 00:56:39,519 --> 00:56:42,800 like oh I didn't have enough this month, I can do it. It's 772 00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,880 like, well, you have to or you're gonna get the charge late fees. 773 00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:49,159 Right. So that's how your brain should think about future investments and with 774 00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:52,719 it. The idea is, don't overextend yourself because you're feeling all of a 775 00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,480 sudden you have to save everything. Give yourself a percentage where you won't have 776 00:56:55,519 --> 00:56:59,719 to mess with it. If say it's three percent, say it's five percent, 777 00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:01,840 say ten percent, whatever it is, give yourself a percent is where 778 00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:05,800 you can do it constantly every month without having a mess with it. Just 779 00:57:06,079 --> 00:57:08,480 stick with ten percent forever. Yeah. Vanguard says they want you to do 780 00:57:08,519 --> 00:57:12,599 around thirteen to fifteen percent of your take on pay and that's a lot. 781 00:57:12,639 --> 00:57:15,199 That's hard for people who haven't started, right. Yeah, so start at 782 00:57:15,199 --> 00:57:19,760 three, start at five percent, and then every year increase it by one 783 00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,760 percent. That way, you're not going to notice it as much, but 784 00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,480 you'll get to eventually that thirteen fifteen percent, and you have a roadmap to 785 00:57:25,519 --> 00:57:28,880 get there. Instead of saying, oh, I'll do it when I get 786 00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:30,519 that raise, or oh I'll do it when this happens. The roadmap is 787 00:57:30,559 --> 00:57:35,400 the best part we in. It doesn't work because then you lose track of 788 00:57:35,440 --> 00:57:37,800 time, You lose track of everything. It's just you don't have a plan. 789 00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:38,960 And a lot of people are like, well, what does ten dollars 790 00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,400 do? I might as well not even do it if that's my proportion. 791 00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:45,079 Well, if you have that money to spare, that's what matters. Again, 792 00:57:45,719 --> 00:57:50,079 everything is proportional. The person making a million dollars or one hundred thousand 793 00:57:50,079 --> 00:57:52,960 dollars putting away ten percent is doing the exact same thing for themselves, and 794 00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:55,559 if you start with the ten bucks a month or whatever it is, you'll 795 00:57:55,599 --> 00:57:58,519 feel a lot happier than the year. If you have one hundred and twenty 796 00:57:58,559 --> 00:58:00,719 dollars all of a sudden in a savings account that you didn't have before because 797 00:58:00,719 --> 00:58:04,360 you spent it all and now you can save up and you're like, oh, 798 00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:06,719 I can do more next year. I felt good about that. And 799 00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:09,800 if you're young, please put a budget together. It is sound. I 800 00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:15,360 know everyone tells you this and it sounds like everything you've heard in school and 801 00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:19,679 from your grandparents and parents, but it's a very important thing to at least 802 00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:23,079 analyze yourself on a monthly basis. Me and Dylan do it every single month, 803 00:58:23,119 --> 00:58:27,960 and it's probably our We dread it every month because it shows us where 804 00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:30,559 we spent the money, and every month we're like, how the heck did 805 00:58:30,559 --> 00:58:35,719 we do that? But we know at that point it keeps you responsible and 806 00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:37,079 accountable, because I mean there's weekends where I'm like, I go away and 807 00:58:37,119 --> 00:58:39,400 I say I have a little too much fun in my head, I'm like, 808 00:58:39,559 --> 00:58:42,719 I didn't have that much fun, I'm all right, and then I 809 00:58:42,719 --> 00:58:45,280 put it into my budget. Playing in my expense sheet, and I saw 810 00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:49,440 I did have too much fun, so I gotta slow down the next month. 811 00:58:49,480 --> 00:58:52,840 But if I didn't put it in the sheet and actually hold myself accountable 812 00:58:52,119 --> 00:58:55,000 to see that I did have a little too much fun, then I wouldn't 813 00:58:55,000 --> 00:59:00,840 have slowed down the next month. Right, And so let's let's switch right 814 00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:06,679 from the young individual to the person approaching retirement. Obviously, this person is 815 00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:13,079 the most in need of a financial plan because they're entering the most important phase 816 00:59:13,119 --> 00:59:16,800 of their life. They're exiting the accumulation phase and entering the de accumulation phase 817 00:59:17,199 --> 00:59:21,159 yep. And a lot of these people either are gonna have pensions, they're 818 00:59:21,159 --> 00:59:24,039 gonna have Social Security, they're gonna have required minimum distributions, they're gonna have 819 00:59:24,119 --> 00:59:29,360 Medicare premims that are based on their income, so whether they're taking large distributions, 820 00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:31,320 that all comes into play. If you think you could do that all 821 00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:35,400 in your head, you're crazy. It needs to be on a piece of 822 00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:37,519 paper, in a software, something that you can refer back to, because 823 00:59:37,719 --> 00:59:42,360 humans are valuable, right, So don't think that you're perfect. No one 824 00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:45,320 is. But when you can have something to refer back to and understand why 825 00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:47,719 you're doing what you're doing. You don't. You don't get scared when the 826 00:59:47,719 --> 00:59:52,440 markets are down, because if you hit that first retirement the markets down twenty 827 00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:54,159 percent and you didn't put a plan together, you're gonna freak out. You're 828 00:59:54,159 --> 00:59:57,400 gonna think, oh, I gotta change my plan, even though you never 829 00:59:57,400 --> 01:00:00,599 had one in the first place, whereas if you had one, plays you 830 01:00:00,639 --> 01:00:04,360 know, Okay, we expected this, we knew this could happen, and 831 01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,320 it would. This plan is still gonna work no matter if this continues. 832 01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:07,960 Well, that's a big thing. We look at too. At the end 833 01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:10,400 of the plan, once it's all completed and everything, we've had a cash 834 01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:14,920 flow chart of everything. We put together. It's onto one sheet and we 835 01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,159 look at it's called the combined detail sheet, and we take it's from the 836 01:00:17,199 --> 01:00:22,480 Monte Carlo simulation of a thousand different scenarios of your retirement plan, good to 837 01:00:22,599 --> 01:00:24,800 bad to the worst. We take one of the worst ones to see if 838 01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:28,800 your plan can work during this worst time. And it's either bad time in 839 01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,360 retirement, like if you've retired in two thousand we had three down years in 840 01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:36,639 a row, or just the return and it's timing and if it's that, 841 01:00:36,719 --> 01:00:38,239 but we look at one of the worst times, and if you can succeed 842 01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:43,119 during that it is you'll most likely succeed because but in that sheet, it 843 01:00:43,239 --> 01:00:45,760 shows, Okay, you're four. I retired. It was just a flat 844 01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:50,079 year for three years. But I'm still my portfolios all right, because I'm 845 01:00:50,079 --> 01:00:52,679 still taking my retirement money on. I still got this Social Security coming. 846 01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,239 And then all of a sudden, year four was minus thirty percent. But 847 01:00:55,280 --> 01:01:00,199 then it shows, okay, not too good. It shows that you're whole. 848 01:01:00,519 --> 01:01:04,199 Total portfolio value went down thirty percent, but the next year was up 849 01:01:04,199 --> 01:01:06,280 thirty percent. The next year after that was up ten percent. We went 850 01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:07,800 into a five year bull market, and all of a sudden, your plans 851 01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:12,079 more than it was. If you don't know that, if you don't see 852 01:01:12,119 --> 01:01:15,039 at least not that in your head that that could happen, all you would 853 01:01:15,039 --> 01:01:17,039 see four years in the retirement is a thirty percent down here, and all 854 01:01:17,039 --> 01:01:20,840 of a sudden, you're not working anymore, you're taking money out. It 855 01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:22,360 could freak you out. You could get scared of it because you don't know 856 01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:25,280 what's going to happen next, What could happen next if you never thought about 857 01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:30,639 it, right, And so we deliver those expectations to the client, we'd 858 01:01:30,719 --> 01:01:34,559 show you the worst case scenario. We're not sitting here trying to give false 859 01:01:34,599 --> 01:01:37,400 expectations. That's why we use one of the worst scenarios, right, and 860 01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:42,119 we expect ourselves to do better than that. But we don't, you know, 861 01:01:42,599 --> 01:01:45,800 guarantee anything, because obviously everything in the markets is a non guarantee. 862 01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:51,079 That's why we used the Monte Carlo simulation. We talked about it last week 863 01:01:51,119 --> 01:01:54,440 with how gambling organizations use that to find how much risk they're exposed to. 864 01:01:55,199 --> 01:02:01,760 It's really hard to calculate risk other than using simulations, you know what I 865 01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:07,039 mean. And a lot of people don't understand the sequence of returns, right. 866 01:02:07,079 --> 01:02:09,239 If you have three down years in a row or only one bad year 867 01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:13,360 down year in a row, and then let's say, for example, you 868 01:02:13,400 --> 01:02:16,239 have three down years to start retirement and then the next seven years are good, 869 01:02:16,559 --> 01:02:21,880 or you have a down year every other year for ten years. Right, 870 01:02:22,519 --> 01:02:24,119 When you have a different set of sequence of returns, you're gonna have 871 01:02:24,159 --> 01:02:30,000 a different type of portfolio that a different impact on your portfolio because of liquidity, 872 01:02:30,239 --> 01:02:34,360 the more a portfolio goes down, the less you're gonna be able to 873 01:02:34,559 --> 01:02:38,159 have liquid obviously, things like annuities. How are you going to actually be 874 01:02:38,199 --> 01:02:42,679 able to utilize annuities if you're just doing something on the back of a napkin 875 01:02:42,719 --> 01:02:45,840 saying, Okay, I need twenty thousand dollars of income a year. I 876 01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:49,039 know, uh well, sorry, let's say fifty thousand dollars of income a 877 01:02:49,079 --> 01:02:51,679 year. I know twenty thousand comes from Social Security. I got a ten 878 01:02:51,719 --> 01:02:53,880 thousand dollars pension, so I need twenty thousand out of my IRA. Okay, 879 01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:59,079 I'm gonna take my IRA, I'm gonna put it into this annuity that's 880 01:02:59,119 --> 01:03:01,639 gonna guarantee me twenty thousand a year. But what happens if that twenty thousand 881 01:03:01,639 --> 01:03:07,199 a year that you're getting from the annuity lumps in all of your liquid assets, 882 01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:09,400 and then one of those years in retirement you have an emergency expense, 883 01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:13,119 say your roof. You need to replace your roof, you need twenty thousand. 884 01:03:13,119 --> 01:03:15,719 You don't have access to any of that. What happens then you didn't 885 01:03:15,719 --> 01:03:21,960 think about the liquidity side of retirement. You love the guaranteed income, but 886 01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:24,159 what does that do for you now when you don't have enough in the bank. 887 01:03:24,239 --> 01:03:29,280 So we look at a multitude of things. When finding the best product, 888 01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:32,960 investment, the best strategy for someone, it's the risk, it's the 889 01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:38,159 goals and objectives, It's how safe they are from a liquidity standpoint, What 890 01:03:38,239 --> 01:03:42,719 kind of protection do they have. There's a lot of what kind of pension 891 01:03:42,719 --> 01:03:45,679 guarantees do they have? Right? And another thing that we always do in 892 01:03:45,719 --> 01:03:52,119 our scenarios is we put social security at an increase of less than one and 893 01:03:52,159 --> 01:03:55,519 a half percent that the actual inflation rate goes to. So say in the 894 01:03:55,559 --> 01:03:59,840 plan, the inflation rates at two point five percent, we're only growing social 895 01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:02,880 security at one percent each year. Many financial plans think, oh, so 896 01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:06,800 is gonna grow with whatever inflation is. We all know that that's never the 897 01:04:06,800 --> 01:04:11,679 case because Medicare premiums increase of inflation increases, and that the ducks out of 898 01:04:11,719 --> 01:04:15,239 your soul security. So a lot of plans are fallible because they're not actually 899 01:04:15,519 --> 01:04:19,000 thinking about realistic scenarios. A lot of plans don't even include Medicare costs. 900 01:04:19,360 --> 01:04:24,480 Right, Okay, we're taking money out of our IRA each year, that's 901 01:04:24,519 --> 01:04:28,039 taxable income. What happens if that sense is to the next bracket, now, 902 01:04:28,079 --> 01:04:30,679 our Medicare premiums jump up. Now we're getting less so security. Now, 903 01:04:30,679 --> 01:04:32,199 how much income do we have? Really? Yeah, that's the idea 904 01:04:32,239 --> 01:04:35,039 with how we run our financial plans as this idea of giving you a realistic 905 01:04:35,119 --> 01:04:39,800 look. We don't want to just try and buff it up to make it 906 01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:42,440 look good to make you happy so you do business with us. We want 907 01:04:42,519 --> 01:04:45,039 to make it look as realistic as possible because I know social security is a 908 01:04:45,119 --> 01:04:47,719 huge thing right now that people get scared of that it might not be there 909 01:04:47,800 --> 01:04:51,320 or it's gonna go away quicker than they say. So that's why we give 910 01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:57,079 the realistic outlook of what we see and we're here to help. For example, 911 01:04:57,159 --> 01:04:59,880 we just had someone to come in we've done a lot of work for. 912 01:05:00,639 --> 01:05:02,360 We're not going to get a dime from him, Nope, because we 913 01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:06,199 don't. It's not always about what we get, it's about what we can 914 01:05:06,239 --> 01:05:10,920 give. But what we did and what helped him figure out now he's pretty 915 01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:13,159 much gonna be set for what he wants to do for the rest of retiring 916 01:05:13,199 --> 01:05:15,480 with him. And and it wasn't that he needed more income, you know, 917 01:05:15,599 --> 01:05:19,480 it wasn't that he needed more investment returns. It was he wanted a 918 01:05:19,519 --> 01:05:24,119 specific goal and wanted to know how can I obtain it? And that's what 919 01:05:24,239 --> 01:05:27,159 we did through creating the financial plan, and then at the end of the 920 01:05:27,159 --> 01:05:29,760 time and then we had the idea of where he wanted to go. It 921 01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:31,199 was just different. It's going to go a different route where we're not going 922 01:05:31,239 --> 01:05:34,559 to manage money, and that's perfectly fine. We still created the plan with 923 01:05:34,679 --> 01:05:39,000 him, gave him the plan all free. That's not why we're here to 924 01:05:39,039 --> 01:05:42,440 do it. We're doing to here the help because now that's a huge load 925 01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:45,119 off his chet. He was so happy when he walked out of here because 926 01:05:45,119 --> 01:05:46,679 now he gets to enjoy the life that him and his wife wanted to enjoy 927 01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:49,079 the rest of their life. What do I owe you guys who said nothing? 928 01:05:49,400 --> 01:05:54,599 Maybe just a review on Google exactly. That's all we'll ever ask for, 929 01:05:55,079 --> 01:05:58,639 because really, the satisfaction we get out of helping people is so much 930 01:05:58,679 --> 01:06:00,960 more than the satisfaction than any figure can give you. Yeah, you know 931 01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:03,920 what I mean. That happiness that we saw in his face, knowing that 932 01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:08,280 we had his best interest in mind. Whether it made us money or not, 933 01:06:08,760 --> 01:06:11,760 we don't care about that. We care what's the best for this client. 934 01:06:11,960 --> 01:06:14,519 And if it's not with us. It's not with us, you know 935 01:06:14,519 --> 01:06:16,480 what I mean. We're never going to be the people that force anyone into 936 01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:20,559 a product because it means more dollars in our pocket exactly. And what we 937 01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:24,039 try and listen to what the needs are I mean, and if it is 938 01:06:24,079 --> 01:06:27,960 guaranteed stuff, then we do go down the annuity route because we can't offer 939 01:06:28,039 --> 01:06:30,559 guarantees. That's just not in our businesses, can't offer them. We're not 940 01:06:30,599 --> 01:06:33,199 sitting there selling annuities. But if you guarantee is what you're looking for, 941 01:06:33,239 --> 01:06:36,199 we can't help you in that aspect as well, and we never suggest putting 942 01:06:36,239 --> 01:06:40,760 your whole portfolio into an annuity. And the beautiful thing about our financial plan 943 01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:45,559 really our team is we're not just planners, right. We have connections to 944 01:06:45,039 --> 01:06:51,480 people who know understand reverse mortgages, mortgages themselves, estate planners, CPAs, 945 01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:58,960 property and casualty right all homeown and in general exactly, I mean, anything 946 01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:02,280 that could affect your finance life, we have someone something connected to it that 947 01:07:02,320 --> 01:07:05,159 can help you and we all work together so they know they're we're all on 948 01:07:05,199 --> 01:07:10,280 the same page, right. So obviously we've kind of went through all the 949 01:07:10,320 --> 01:07:14,199 different stages of life that you could possibly how you can utilize the financial plan. 950 01:07:14,679 --> 01:07:18,159 And now the next step is just reach out really give us a call. 951 01:07:18,239 --> 01:07:21,239 Whenever you have the availability. We'll find a time on the calendar. 952 01:07:21,400 --> 01:07:25,920 It's going to be absolutely free. The first initial meetings. First time we 953 01:07:25,960 --> 01:07:28,760 come in, we do the financial plan, We send you the report. 954 01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:31,280 After the first meeting, we send you the risk tolerance questionnaire. Once you 955 01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,719 fill that out and we understand your risk, then we can start building the 956 01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:40,360 proposal. We have a whole packet that we give stated all the recommendations that 957 01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:43,840 outlooks, the projections, the illustrations, all in one packet for you to 958 01:07:43,880 --> 01:07:47,320 review, take home, you know, decipher, come up with more questions. 959 01:07:47,679 --> 01:07:50,679 We then answer those questions and if you feel comfortable to move forward with 960 01:07:50,679 --> 01:07:55,840 the plan, we implement the strategy. If not, no obligation and there's 961 01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:59,159 still no cost yep. And that's the only time that would any cost that 962 01:07:59,159 --> 01:08:00,679 it would come into it if you decide to move forward and we open them 963 01:08:00,679 --> 01:08:03,239 to count and then we're beginning to manage your money. And that's how the 964 01:08:03,239 --> 01:08:06,719 relationship keeps going. But there's no pressure to do anything. Yeah, and 965 01:08:06,760 --> 01:08:11,360 I think a lot of people, especially I would tell one more time on 966 01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:14,719 the thirty fourty yearlds. Even the fifty year olds, they want an advisor 967 01:08:14,719 --> 01:08:17,479 who isn't in their sixties or seventies, right, because at the end of 968 01:08:17,479 --> 01:08:20,279 the day, if you're five more years, if you've retired in twenty years, 969 01:08:20,319 --> 01:08:26,479 but that means in twenty years your advisor passes away. Well now you 970 01:08:26,479 --> 01:08:28,880 have to find a new advisor in the most important time of your life. 971 01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:30,439 Well exactly. And that's why we love what we got going on here is 972 01:08:30,479 --> 01:08:34,000 a team aspect because like my dad was saying earlier, it's a team. 973 01:08:34,159 --> 01:08:38,560 We grew up playing team sports, We coach team sports. We're all about 974 01:08:38,560 --> 01:08:42,720 team sports because it brails the camaraderie and the relationships rather than being an individual 975 01:08:42,760 --> 01:08:46,279 and selfish. It builds a selfless atmosphere and we all just work together for 976 01:08:46,319 --> 01:08:49,319 one ultimate goal, which is to help the client. And the way we 977 01:08:49,319 --> 01:08:55,479 can do that with this and the idea of the experience my dad has with 978 01:08:55,520 --> 01:08:58,399 forty plus years in the business, Dave Surewood has forty plus years in the 979 01:08:58,439 --> 01:09:00,359 business. They are teaching us, taking us under the wing who are in 980 01:09:00,359 --> 01:09:03,960 our twenties, to teach us all the knowledge that they have so they make 981 01:09:03,960 --> 01:09:09,000 the ultimate decisions obviously with trading, with investing stuff like that, because they 982 01:09:09,039 --> 01:09:13,920 have the more experience. But they're showing us the way to build investment portfolios, 983 01:09:14,319 --> 01:09:16,039 work with clients, build a relationship, give us all the knowledge that 984 01:09:16,039 --> 01:09:20,079 they've had for the last forty years. It's a really great atmosphere because we're 985 01:09:20,119 --> 01:09:25,399 gonna be here for another forty years. Right. They're obviously not they're older, 986 01:09:25,399 --> 01:09:27,600 they're in their sixties and seventies, and that's what we're talking about. 987 01:09:27,600 --> 01:09:30,720 But the idea of having them mentor us is what a lot of clients have 988 01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:33,680 actually liked, right, because it means that Greenberg Financial is going to be 989 01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:39,680 around for a long time exactly. You know, where we continue to learn. 990 01:09:40,239 --> 01:09:45,000 We're actually going to be taking an entire course on real in depth course 991 01:09:45,239 --> 01:09:49,239 on federal employees. So we're gonna we're gonna be as close to experts as 992 01:09:49,239 --> 01:09:54,479 we can call ourselves on the because if you're a federal employee, you know 993 01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:58,319 that your retirement a lot of complex then and we know a lot don't get 994 01:09:58,399 --> 01:10:00,880 us wrong, but we want to go that extra step. I want to 995 01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:03,600 continue to learn because there's a lot of intricacies to the Federal Retirement Right, 996 01:10:04,239 --> 01:10:10,439 Fagley FVHB, their long term care options, their TSP is probably the most 997 01:10:10,439 --> 01:10:14,600 simple part, but it's the most talked about part. Exactly switching subjects. 998 01:10:14,720 --> 01:10:15,560 I bought a house this week, Dyling, you did, I know, 999 01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:19,800 congrats, thank you man finding back to full time, Yeah, I got 1000 01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:23,840 guess full time for sure now selling the house up in Tempe, and I 1001 01:10:23,880 --> 01:10:26,239 wanted to touch on it just a little bit because of the fact that I 1002 01:10:26,319 --> 01:10:29,319 feel like what I went through is probably what a lot of home built homeowners 1003 01:10:29,399 --> 01:10:31,159 up in Phoenix are going through, and a lot of the hot pockets that 1004 01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:35,359 we saw in the real real estate bubble that was twenty twenty and twenty one. 1005 01:10:36,319 --> 01:10:40,840 Obviously, Phoenix was one of the biggest Austin, Texas, Florida's cities. 1006 01:10:42,239 --> 01:10:45,199 When I tried to rent my house, it's it was on the market 1007 01:10:45,239 --> 01:10:48,640 for thirty one days, Dyaling, zero showings, and that's the rent in 1008 01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:51,960 Tempe, Tempe, I mean. And it's a beautiful house. Four bad, 1009 01:10:53,239 --> 01:10:57,039 two bad that is older. It's a perfect like college house campus. 1010 01:10:57,159 --> 01:11:02,000 It's five minutes from a campus. It's it's completely repainted and everything was done 1011 01:11:02,319 --> 01:11:08,119 and I had only six leads in zero showings in thirty one days. Yep. 1012 01:11:08,399 --> 01:11:10,399 And then I started, okay, well, I need to analyze what 1013 01:11:10,439 --> 01:11:14,159 am I doing wrong. I looked at the overall map and guess what littered 1014 01:11:14,239 --> 01:11:15,880 covered in rentals? So I said, okay, well, the supply and 1015 01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:19,079 demands is pretty obvious. There's a whole bunch of supply of rentals, not 1016 01:11:19,199 --> 01:11:23,680 only a limited amount, limited number of demand. But then on the other 1017 01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:27,159 side, you have a whole bunch of demand for existing home sales, but 1018 01:11:27,199 --> 01:11:30,479 there's no inventory. We've continued to say this existing home sales was down for 1019 01:11:30,479 --> 01:11:33,920 another month below expectations. So a lot of people eventually, if they can't 1020 01:11:33,920 --> 01:11:36,920 make that long term rental, what are they gonna do for sale? Just 1021 01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:41,520 like I'm doing right now. So I think keep an eye out for that. 1022 01:11:41,600 --> 01:11:44,520 Obviously, we've already talked about Canada's real estate problems, We've talked about 1023 01:11:44,560 --> 01:11:47,520 China's real estate problems. I'm not saying there's a bubble forming, but there 1024 01:11:47,600 --> 01:11:50,920 is definitely some concerns to keep an eye out. Well, it's with the 1025 01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:55,119 airbnb market because of I mean this happening in Austin, Texas too, there's 1026 01:11:55,119 --> 01:11:59,439 still three hundred houses for sale, twelve thousand Airbnb's of for rent. Yeah, 1027 01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:02,159 short term. I'm switching a long term and that's causing a real issue 1028 01:12:02,199 --> 01:12:05,520 in the markets. All right, So we're coming up on another break. 1029 01:12:05,600 --> 01:12:11,119 We appreciate everyone tuning in. We got two more segments segments on this Sunday 1030 01:12:11,199 --> 01:12:13,840 morning. Thank you for joining us. We'll be right back. This is 1031 01:12:13,880 --> 01:12:20,399 the Money Matter Show, but it wouldn't welcome back. You're listening to the 1032 01:12:20,439 --> 01:12:24,560 Money Matter Show. We got two more segments on this great Sunday morning. 1033 01:12:25,680 --> 01:12:28,560 How's it going, Todd, It's been good. You bought that house, 1034 01:12:28,680 --> 01:12:30,000 like we talked about last segment. That's pretty cool. Yeah, I mean 1035 01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:34,279 not built, it's it's still your house, your house. Those new bills 1036 01:12:34,279 --> 01:12:38,079 are fun. Well, you know with the new home sales, you know 1037 01:12:38,159 --> 01:12:42,560 they be expectations for another month and new home sales continues to be on an 1038 01:12:42,600 --> 01:12:46,479 upward trend, and it's largely because those national home builders are giving offers to 1039 01:12:46,520 --> 01:12:49,640 buy down raids or go towards closing costs. They're doing that, and they 1040 01:12:49,680 --> 01:12:55,680 also are it's from from the last couple of years. They just built so 1041 01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:59,319 many new homes that all of a sudden couldn't be sold. People either didn't 1042 01:12:59,359 --> 01:13:01,600 qualify anymore because of the higher rates, or they just got out because it's 1043 01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:03,680 going to be too expensive because of the higher rates. So all of a 1044 01:13:03,720 --> 01:13:06,319 sudden, they have this huge inventory and new homes that were built and just 1045 01:13:06,359 --> 01:13:09,680 sitting there. So those are getting sold now too, because that's all that 1046 01:13:09,800 --> 01:13:12,800 inventory is. It's hard to find a home that was already had built for 1047 01:13:12,920 --> 01:13:15,279 existing homes. No, you're exactly right, actually, because the home builder 1048 01:13:15,319 --> 01:13:18,640 backlogs are shrinking, and it's actually one of the major charts I was looking 1049 01:13:18,680 --> 01:13:25,279 at this week largely because if you're someone trying to buy a home, there's 1050 01:13:25,319 --> 01:13:27,800 not a lot of existing options, and if there are, you're gonna get 1051 01:13:27,800 --> 01:13:30,319 a high interest rate. Why not go to the new home sale. You 1052 01:13:30,359 --> 01:13:31,800 might pay a little more, but in aggregate, you're going to be paying 1053 01:13:31,800 --> 01:13:35,079 a less because you have a lower rate on your payments. So definitely seeing 1054 01:13:35,079 --> 01:13:40,560 that those National home bowers look at the stocks right dr Horn KB Home, 1055 01:13:40,840 --> 01:13:43,800 They've had a great year so far and they continue to do so. The 1056 01:13:43,840 --> 01:13:45,399 one thing that pointed out to me is the Atlanta Fed. They have a 1057 01:13:45,439 --> 01:13:53,399 GDP now forecast it's really just a model that they estimate quarterly GDP growth for 1058 01:13:53,520 --> 01:13:58,399 quarter three. Right now, they're projecting five point nine percent as of August 1059 01:13:58,399 --> 01:14:03,279 sixteenth. That is huge GDP number for a quarter. That is not what 1060 01:14:03,319 --> 01:14:08,359 the FED wants to see. However, then what I saw on Tuesday, 1061 01:14:08,439 --> 01:14:15,359 we saw the preliminary PMI reports that is for manufacturing and services sector in the 1062 01:14:15,479 --> 01:14:18,279 US economy, and they were down big, And I was very surprised to 1063 01:14:18,319 --> 01:14:23,159 see that, because when you see Atlanta FED GDP of five point eight percent 1064 01:14:23,399 --> 01:14:27,279 and then a pm I that's lower expectation, is showing that the manufacturing services 1065 01:14:27,319 --> 01:14:31,079 sector they don't have a lot of good expectations for what's to come in the 1066 01:14:31,079 --> 01:14:36,800 next couple of months. They feel worse as as a service producer or a 1067 01:14:36,800 --> 01:14:41,159 manufacturing producer. So at the end of the day, what's going to end 1068 01:14:41,239 --> 01:14:45,159 up holding true is going to be the thing that really decides what FED what 1069 01:14:45,199 --> 01:14:46,960 FED pal is going to say. Obviously he already said wage growth is more 1070 01:14:47,000 --> 01:14:51,279 important to him, but if the economy is running hot, you really have 1071 01:14:51,319 --> 01:14:55,560 to keep raising rates. Yeah, and that's why he said he's not afraid 1072 01:14:55,560 --> 01:14:58,880 to keep raising rates. And he didn't even mention rate cuts. Right, 1073 01:14:59,359 --> 01:15:01,840 So obviously this week in the video was the big news. It was yeah, 1074 01:15:01,880 --> 01:15:04,479 I mean, and video is big news. But we had other ones 1075 01:15:04,520 --> 01:15:09,159 and one one thing that kind of stuck out on Friday was Instacart filed for 1076 01:15:09,199 --> 01:15:14,399 their IPO, which is gonna break a freeze on tech companies doing an initial 1077 01:15:14,439 --> 01:15:16,920 public offerings. For the last significant one was December of twenty one, so 1078 01:15:16,960 --> 01:15:20,680 that's been almost two years. Wow. And we saw a bunch in twenty 1079 01:15:20,720 --> 01:15:26,039 twenty and twenty twenty twenty one was Snowflake. The last one could have been 1080 01:15:26,199 --> 01:15:28,479 Yeah, I think so. If it was, yeah, I don't remember 1081 01:15:28,520 --> 01:15:30,039 exactly which one, but it was one of them. It was in twenty 1082 01:15:30,119 --> 01:15:33,239 twenty one. But I mean, there was a ton between twenty twenty and 1083 01:15:33,279 --> 01:15:38,520 twenty twenty one. All these tech companies they were going public through spects and 1084 01:15:38,560 --> 01:15:40,640 now, and then all of a sudden, it was a freeze because all 1085 01:15:40,760 --> 01:15:44,479 that spack when he went away, all the first time investors that were so 1086 01:15:44,520 --> 01:15:47,439 happy to buy stuff, and it's just every IPO that went through would just 1087 01:15:47,640 --> 01:15:51,039 double within the first couple of days and then it would come back to reality. 1088 01:15:51,119 --> 01:15:55,960 But now all those companies are really at reality and their valuations are back 1089 01:15:55,960 --> 01:15:58,279 where they are and those stocks that were worth one hundred dollars at one point 1090 01:15:58,359 --> 01:16:01,039 or not like seven. Instacarton name it is, I mean, it holds 1091 01:16:01,079 --> 01:16:04,119 up to its name. It's a grocery. It's like doordask for groceries, 1092 01:16:04,159 --> 01:16:09,199 and it's been the company since twenty twelve. They've gotten hurt as the economy 1093 01:16:09,279 --> 01:16:13,439 slowed down and other competitors have got into the business like DoorDash and Uber Eats 1094 01:16:13,439 --> 01:16:17,119 and all and Walmart. But they're still still showing profit for the last five 1095 01:16:17,199 --> 01:16:20,960 quarters, so we'll see. Yeah. I mean, obviously we know Walmart 1096 01:16:20,960 --> 01:16:25,640 has their own version of that where they do kind of a drop off at 1097 01:16:25,640 --> 01:16:29,079 the right outside their store, but instant cart goes all the way to your 1098 01:16:29,079 --> 01:16:30,760 home. I mean, I use doordask for that, you do door to 1099 01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:33,760 ask groceries. Yeah, obviously there are a stock as well, and we 1100 01:16:34,079 --> 01:16:40,800 kind of maybe that's a good picture as of what instat Car's valuation will look 1101 01:16:40,840 --> 01:16:43,520 like. Yeah, and DoorDash was one of those ones that went out of 1102 01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:46,640 roughly twenty twenty and it just immediately doubled and now it's kind of back to 1103 01:16:46,960 --> 01:16:53,720 earth. That's an interesting play right there. Chip maker Marvel Technology delivered quarterly 1104 01:16:53,880 --> 01:16:58,720 guidance in line with Wall Streets expectations. Obviously, they're on the chip side, 1105 01:16:58,760 --> 01:17:03,119 so their strength and artificial intelligence application is offset by the continued weakness however 1106 01:17:03,359 --> 01:17:09,279 in some of its legacy business like storage. Obviously, we know the technologies 1107 01:17:09,319 --> 01:17:15,000 of ever changing landscape. So kind of what how Intel lost its favor in 1108 01:17:15,039 --> 01:17:17,439 the market is not being able to continue to find new products, the most 1109 01:17:17,720 --> 01:17:23,880 used and updated products, right. I mean I feel like you have you 1110 01:17:23,920 --> 01:17:28,640 know, storage as in hardware, and then you have aws and different digital 1111 01:17:28,680 --> 01:17:31,479 storages like I Cloud and things like that. So things always change in the 1112 01:17:31,560 --> 01:17:36,600 technology landscape. You got to continue to be you have to continue to evolve. 1113 01:17:36,600 --> 01:17:41,680 And that's why Davidea is you know, they have the most evolved product, 1114 01:17:41,880 --> 01:17:45,319 Yeah, exactly, and they're still and they're they're really good at doing 1115 01:17:45,359 --> 01:17:47,760 that. Yeah, the most innovative chips coming out and keep coming out. 1116 01:17:47,800 --> 01:17:51,199 They're not just happy with where they are right now. Right. Google is 1117 01:17:51,239 --> 01:17:56,159 interesting. They're coming out with a conference next week talking about some of their 1118 01:17:56,199 --> 01:18:00,680 AI capabilities that they're bared, which is their version of chat GBT can do. 1119 01:18:01,079 --> 01:18:05,079 Yeah, and also they're just and they're continuing to expand their storage facilities. 1120 01:18:05,119 --> 01:18:09,039 Are spending one point two billion dollars this year so far on new storage 1121 01:18:09,039 --> 01:18:13,720 facilities. That there of everything, right, they're continuing to expand. Nike 1122 01:18:14,239 --> 01:18:15,680 ahead. Now I was gonna say, yeah, Nike has been an interesting 1123 01:18:15,720 --> 01:18:18,199 stock. It's down twenty five percent from it's fifty two week high of one 1124 01:18:18,239 --> 01:18:21,079 hundred and thirty one dollars a share. Yea. And part of the reason 1125 01:18:21,199 --> 01:18:24,680 is because, I mean, it's huge in China, and China's economy is 1126 01:18:24,720 --> 01:18:29,159 just slowing down. Its consumer sentiment is down, It's retail sales dropped. 1127 01:18:29,479 --> 01:18:33,239 It only grew or slowed to two point five percent in July, and I 1128 01:18:33,279 --> 01:18:36,399 thought I was gonna be four percent, so it's almost in half. And 1129 01:18:36,479 --> 01:18:42,279 the part of this reason is that China is also experiencing deflation, which is 1130 01:18:42,319 --> 01:18:45,279 good for the consumer but bad for companies because now consumers are saying, oh, 1131 01:18:45,279 --> 01:18:50,840 okay, the one is it's getting weaker, so we're just gonna wait 1132 01:18:50,880 --> 01:18:54,000 longer. We don't need to buy Nike shoes, we don't need to buy 1133 01:18:54,000 --> 01:18:57,640 the new sweatshirt. We'll wait until prices drop even more and just keep waiting 1134 01:18:57,680 --> 01:19:00,920 and waiting, and that hurts Nike, right, I Mean, deflation sounds 1135 01:19:00,920 --> 01:19:02,560 good for the consumer, but that means the currency that they're getting from the 1136 01:19:02,560 --> 01:19:06,600 consumers less valuable, which means they have to pay more for their products and 1137 01:19:06,640 --> 01:19:12,720 services. So it's not good for the Chinese companies to have deflation. But 1138 01:19:12,960 --> 01:19:18,760 obviously as you continue to have Nike go into the what is it, back 1139 01:19:18,760 --> 01:19:21,239 to school season, right, I mean I feel like that is something that 1140 01:19:21,239 --> 01:19:26,359 maybe the market's overlooking where. I mean, if I'm buying Nike products anywhere 1141 01:19:26,479 --> 01:19:30,720 under eighteen, it's normally going to happen between July August area, right before 1142 01:19:30,760 --> 01:19:33,319 I go to school. Analysts we're saying, another issue, though, is 1143 01:19:33,359 --> 01:19:38,760 their lack of innovation with their products. They've got into complacent with what they 1144 01:19:39,000 --> 01:19:41,680 sell, But how innovative can you be with a product? That's part of 1145 01:19:41,680 --> 01:19:44,239 the problem, is what they're saying. Yeah, they just they're running out 1146 01:19:44,239 --> 01:19:47,439 of ways right now to be innovative. Yeah, and I you know, 1147 01:19:47,560 --> 01:19:53,319 I guess their only way to really improve margins is to keep selling those incredibly 1148 01:19:53,319 --> 01:19:56,880 overpriced Jordan's and the shoes that all those collects. Jordan was the only brand 1149 01:19:56,920 --> 01:20:00,079 part of Nike. That helps straight right throughout that co and throughout this downturn. 1150 01:20:00,119 --> 01:20:02,720 I mean they had nine or ten days down in a row, but 1151 01:20:02,760 --> 01:20:06,159 there Jordan Brand has been showing no signs of slowing down. Nike is still 1152 01:20:06,159 --> 01:20:11,199 a quality name and there is it does get to a point where its valuation 1153 01:20:11,399 --> 01:20:15,319 is where it should be. And that's when you know, you can't continue 1154 01:20:15,319 --> 01:20:16,560 to be scared of a big name like that, because then you look back 1155 01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:19,520 and then you know, why why didn't I get in here? Yeah, 1156 01:20:19,520 --> 01:20:25,319 and I feel like it's not so much Nike as a company in a sense. 1157 01:20:25,359 --> 01:20:28,199 It is with innovation and all, but it's more China. Yeah, 1158 01:20:28,319 --> 01:20:30,920 it has to do a lot with China's economy. And that's why Starbucks has 1159 01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:34,680 been down to yep, Starbucks continues to not really come out of its little 1160 01:20:34,720 --> 01:20:39,239 And you know, another one that is about my mind is Disney. It 1161 01:20:39,399 --> 01:20:44,319 continues to just kind of trade sideways, trade lower a little bit. And 1162 01:20:44,399 --> 01:20:46,880 that's another stock that's gonna have a lot of interesting things come about in the 1163 01:20:46,880 --> 01:20:53,600 next couple of months because more ESPN sponsorships, partnership, Sorry, it could 1164 01:20:53,640 --> 01:20:58,039 be on the way club holding. Amazon is reportedly in talks with the with 1165 01:20:58,079 --> 01:21:01,960 Disney about developing an es be in streaming service. According to the information, 1166 01:21:02,640 --> 01:21:08,359 Disney currently owns eighty percent of the Sports network, so they do. And 1167 01:21:08,399 --> 01:21:10,760 what's happening now though, is that there's a lot of talk. It hasn't 1168 01:21:10,800 --> 01:21:13,760 been confirmed, but there's a lot of talk that Apple will buy ESPN. 1169 01:21:14,399 --> 01:21:16,159 I've heard that too, but I was looking up articles and stuff, and 1170 01:21:16,159 --> 01:21:19,199 there's just hall speculations saying why would be smart for Apple to buy it? 1171 01:21:19,279 --> 01:21:23,840 Not that Apple's actually interesting. Okay, yeah, I mean it would make 1172 01:21:23,880 --> 01:21:27,119 sense for Apple or Amazon to do it, as they both have Apple TV, 1173 01:21:27,239 --> 01:21:30,239 they have Amazon TV. I mean, Disney has their own streaming service 1174 01:21:30,279 --> 01:21:33,319 too, but I guess it doesn't work as well. I mean, ESPN 1175 01:21:33,319 --> 01:21:36,840 itself is already a streaming service, so I don't I guess exactly understand what 1176 01:21:36,880 --> 01:21:41,039 they mean by developing. They're gonna another one, but maybe add it to 1177 01:21:41,079 --> 01:21:44,880 another, gonna add No, it's gonna be ESPN plus from my understanding, 1178 01:21:44,920 --> 01:21:46,800 but they're just gonna add to it. It's gonna have more games, more 1179 01:21:47,000 --> 01:21:51,600 availability and stuff like that. And like they did, you add ESPN gambling. 1180 01:21:53,119 --> 01:21:56,039 I forgot the name of it, but they just partnered pen Pen National 1181 01:21:56,319 --> 01:22:00,640 Gaming. That is a very interesting thing there where you know, there's there's 1182 01:22:00,680 --> 01:22:05,479 these new business I mean, and Disney's attraction business continues to do good. 1183 01:22:06,680 --> 01:22:11,199 They are going to save money this year because of the strikes, They're not 1184 01:22:11,279 --> 01:22:14,520 producing as much, so costs are going to go down. There are things 1185 01:22:14,560 --> 01:22:16,600 that line up to look good for Disney, but I think you need some 1186 01:22:16,720 --> 01:22:20,800 big event to make that rally start. Yeah, and at the end of 1187 01:22:20,800 --> 01:22:25,000 the day, ESPN is a big cash cow with all the sports and everything. 1188 01:22:25,079 --> 01:22:29,199 But that's why they're trying to make a streamline with the streaming service because 1189 01:22:29,279 --> 01:22:31,000 cable is going away. That's also part of the reason. But also if 1190 01:22:31,000 --> 01:22:33,319 they did decide to sell it, this would be like the fifth time ESPN 1191 01:22:33,359 --> 01:22:35,920 has been sold to another company. If they sold it to, say, 1192 01:22:35,920 --> 01:22:41,880 to Apple, they give about fifty billion dollars, so they could that's might 1193 01:22:41,920 --> 01:22:44,920 be ways why on other analysts are looking at its saying it might be a 1194 01:22:44,920 --> 01:22:47,079 smart move. They get a big cash and Apple has the biggest cash pile. 1195 01:22:47,279 --> 01:22:51,319 Another thing that's connected to Disney is Apple, I mean Comcast, because 1196 01:22:51,319 --> 01:22:57,319 Comcast owns Hulu and Disney's already under contract to buy the remaining And yeah, 1197 01:22:57,680 --> 01:23:00,720 currently Disney on eighty percent, and they're going to have the next twenty so 1198 01:23:00,720 --> 01:23:02,359 they one hundred percent. So that's also why it makes more sense that Disney's 1199 01:23:02,399 --> 01:23:06,680 keeping ESPN and making Hulu and ESPN probably one thing. Yeah, and I 1200 01:23:06,680 --> 01:23:12,159 didn't realize Disney plus how much Comcast has another businesses other than legacy Cable, 1201 01:23:12,279 --> 01:23:15,840 right, I mean they have Exfinity, they have They're gonna sell Hulu, 1202 01:23:15,840 --> 01:23:18,920 which is another big generation of cash for them. They have a lot of 1203 01:23:18,920 --> 01:23:24,199 different lines of businesses where Comcast is not really I think a lot of people 1204 01:23:24,199 --> 01:23:27,000 think Comcasts are like, oh, Legacy Cable, that's going away. It's 1205 01:23:27,000 --> 01:23:30,560 a smart ceo. But if they've had a good they've had a good year 1206 01:23:30,640 --> 01:23:34,840 so far. Wrap it back up with Google obviously, streaming service, YouTube, 1207 01:23:34,920 --> 01:23:39,600 TV, NFL ticket that's gonna be real big. See. I mean 1208 01:23:39,600 --> 01:23:42,479 you're not gonna see it on the next You're probably not gonna maybe on the 1209 01:23:42,520 --> 01:23:45,279 next quarter report. Uh yeah, But I mean, really, what's gonna 1210 01:23:45,279 --> 01:23:46,920 happen maybe a quarter four really where you're gonna it's gonna be the numbers. 1211 01:23:46,920 --> 01:23:51,159 But also what's gonna happen is it doesn't go smoothly. Amazon prid took over 1212 01:23:51,199 --> 01:23:54,800 Thursday Night Football last year and there's issues with it. Yeah, and it 1213 01:23:54,880 --> 01:23:58,199 wasn't good for the company because people were pissed off that it was either not 1214 01:23:58,239 --> 01:24:03,800 working it was just slow pixelated. So if if YouTube has issues with this, 1215 01:24:04,399 --> 01:24:08,840 then that's gonna hurt the company. But that is that's more of a 1216 01:24:08,840 --> 01:24:12,800 short term issue, right, It's gonna be It's it's very crucial to see 1217 01:24:12,800 --> 01:24:16,600 how much potential growth could be in the nfls on a ticket or YouTube TV 1218 01:24:16,960 --> 01:24:19,920 that leads to Google's profit. Of the biggest number will be how many new 1219 01:24:19,960 --> 01:24:26,039 subscribers to YouTube tv are there, because like showing going into which you'll know 1220 01:24:26,199 --> 01:24:29,439 it's going to be around that when NFL starts, and that's it's gonna be 1221 01:24:29,600 --> 01:24:31,239 probably gonna be on the fourth quarter report, which they're going to expect the 1222 01:24:31,279 --> 01:24:33,359 big boost because a lot of people are gonna buy it. Also with red 1223 01:24:33,439 --> 01:24:36,560 Zone. Also with that, we're coming up to a hard break. So 1224 01:24:36,600 --> 01:24:40,479 we will be back for our last segment. You listen to the Money Amoutter 1225 01:24:40,479 --> 01:24:43,239 Show. I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here with Toddlick and Dean Greenberg, and 1226 01:24:43,520 --> 01:24:51,199 we'll be back but it wouldn't welcome back everybody. We got a last segment 1227 01:24:51,239 --> 01:24:58,720 of the Money Matter Show, Yes we do. Now the two year ten 1228 01:24:58,800 --> 01:25:02,640 year inversion, it actually narrowed a little bit, so we still have an 1229 01:25:02,680 --> 01:25:06,079 inversion, which is I mean at this point in I mean, how long 1230 01:25:06,079 --> 01:25:11,199 has this been inverted? I mean it's almost It takes time, you know, 1231 01:25:11,279 --> 01:25:15,119 sometimes it's it's sixteen months after, eighteen months later. But the funny 1232 01:25:15,119 --> 01:25:18,279 part about that inversion is supposed to be, you have a recession in five 1233 01:25:18,359 --> 01:25:21,079 years from now. If we have a recession next year, everyone's going to 1234 01:25:21,159 --> 01:25:24,279 say, you see, that's when it happened. You know what I mean, 1235 01:25:24,600 --> 01:25:27,079 once it starts happening, happened, It just doesn't happen right away. 1236 01:25:27,119 --> 01:25:31,439 And that is why we didn't get totally bullish bullish, But that's why we 1237 01:25:31,439 --> 01:25:35,279 didn't get totally barish. The bottom line is, and you guys know it, 1238 01:25:35,399 --> 01:25:40,000 I'm looking for something out of the federalis or to switch policies to the 1239 01:25:40,000 --> 01:25:44,680 point that it gives me a signal that says we're very vulnerable to a crash. 1240 01:25:44,720 --> 01:25:47,159 And I haven't gotten that yet. Yeah, and you know, really 1241 01:25:47,239 --> 01:25:53,000 since right around April the ten year yield has continued to increase, which is 1242 01:25:53,520 --> 01:25:57,479 kind of where we saw some of the peaks in the market. You know, 1243 01:25:57,720 --> 01:26:00,279 at the end of the day, when interest rates increase, us to 1244 01:26:00,359 --> 01:26:02,680 the ten year, that is what is used for the calculation of these growth 1245 01:26:02,680 --> 01:26:05,760 stocks. The ten year is getting closer and closer to the four and a 1246 01:26:05,800 --> 01:26:09,720 half five percent level. Yes, it's going to be hard not to put 1247 01:26:09,760 --> 01:26:13,399 some money into that the people looking for income if it gets to five percent, 1248 01:26:13,760 --> 01:26:15,680 because now you're locking it in at five percent for ten years and not 1249 01:26:15,760 --> 01:26:18,079 two years or three years. I mean, at this point, Dean, 1250 01:26:18,159 --> 01:26:23,760 the thirty year is only point zero one lower than the ten year. Yeah, 1251 01:26:23,800 --> 01:26:28,119 I mean I'm getting four points. I wouldn't go thirty years, I 1252 01:26:29,359 --> 01:26:32,800 get it now. Insuance companies are the way the pricing stuff that is, 1253 01:26:33,720 --> 01:26:39,640 but not us. We are seeing this bear steepening in the curve right now. 1254 01:26:40,760 --> 01:26:45,000 We're seeing the longer come up and then the shorter term kind of just 1255 01:26:45,039 --> 01:26:48,239 stay where it's at because obviously the Fed controls the short end, the market 1256 01:26:48,279 --> 01:26:53,000 controls the long end. But then on Friday we saw all the short end 1257 01:26:53,079 --> 01:26:57,239 increase the long end do the reverse. So we may maybe we see the 1258 01:26:57,279 --> 01:27:00,319 peaks. Who knows the way? I don't. We don't really trade bond. 1259 01:27:00,359 --> 01:27:01,600 What we do is we look for the income to put in to fit 1260 01:27:01,640 --> 01:27:09,079 into our allocations of what is the necessary needs for the clients. What beautiful 1261 01:27:09,119 --> 01:27:14,880 now is short term money money marketing get over five percent? Two year paper 1262 01:27:14,920 --> 01:27:16,520 you can get five percent, You go out a little bit. The only 1263 01:27:16,520 --> 01:27:19,199 reason you go out a little bit is for what reason? Is to be 1264 01:27:19,239 --> 01:27:23,359 able to lock that money up a little longer at a price that we think 1265 01:27:23,439 --> 01:27:28,319 is a good income right now. Now, if everything goes bad, history 1266 01:27:28,359 --> 01:27:31,119 repeats itself. You did not live through the period of time when money markets 1267 01:27:31,119 --> 01:27:34,720 were twenty percent. Now I'm not saying that's where we're going, all right, 1268 01:27:35,159 --> 01:27:41,960 but a fifteen year government thirty year bond was so hard to sell because 1269 01:27:42,000 --> 01:27:46,520 short term paper was paying twenty percent. Think about that. Iniscibles triple a 1270 01:27:46,600 --> 01:27:55,439 weighted innscibles tax free for fifteen years. We're paying your like ten percent twelve 1271 01:27:55,439 --> 01:27:59,880 percent? Is that crazy? You think you can't get back to double ditch. 1272 01:28:00,359 --> 01:28:03,439 I never say never on anything. Yeah, that's why you mitigate risk, 1273 01:28:03,760 --> 01:28:06,720 That's why you allocate. That's why when you have certain things, because 1274 01:28:06,920 --> 01:28:13,880 we deal with individuals. We're not dealing with insurance companies and institutions that always 1275 01:28:13,880 --> 01:28:17,279 have new money coming in constantly from the business they do well. The most 1276 01:28:17,279 --> 01:28:19,880 money is in the bond market, right, I mean, all the money's 1277 01:28:19,880 --> 01:28:23,119 in the bond market. So we use the bond market kind of give us 1278 01:28:23,159 --> 01:28:26,800 a picture of what the stock market could look like going down the road. 1279 01:28:27,159 --> 01:28:30,520 So obviously, take advantage of these high interest rate environments. We've talked about 1280 01:28:30,560 --> 01:28:34,359 the MEGA multiple times on this show. You can lock in right now five 1281 01:28:34,359 --> 01:28:39,039 point three percent for five years, compound and guaranteed. Right take your arm. 1282 01:28:40,079 --> 01:28:43,960 Remember government bonds still you don't have to pay state tax, right Okay. 1283 01:28:44,239 --> 01:28:46,760 So the only reason I bring that up is you compare them the CDs. 1284 01:28:47,039 --> 01:28:50,239 You know on everyone's mind, CDC dcds, But the CDs you're still 1285 01:28:50,239 --> 01:28:55,399 paying taxes. So if you product to product the US government bond, it's 1286 01:28:55,439 --> 01:28:59,960 not only safer, but it also gives you the opportunity to not pay taxes 1287 01:29:00,880 --> 01:29:05,600 on the state. I totally agree. Obviously, this week, the equal 1288 01:29:05,640 --> 01:29:11,319 weighted was a little below the SMP five hundred. It was down point two 1289 01:29:11,359 --> 01:29:14,239 percent on the week. The SMP was up point eight percent on the week 1290 01:29:14,760 --> 01:29:18,319 showing that the big names led the way this week doing yeah, and I 1291 01:29:18,319 --> 01:29:21,960 mean the big names have been leading the way really, but it was a 1292 01:29:23,000 --> 01:29:25,760 little more even which it has been the last few weeks. I mean last 1293 01:29:25,800 --> 01:29:29,239 week two weeks ago, the SMP five hundred was about in line with RSP, 1294 01:29:29,399 --> 01:29:31,800 which is the equal weighted So I mean the big one I think was 1295 01:29:31,800 --> 01:29:38,479 in video. Microsoft had a pretty good week too, So the Magnificent sevens 1296 01:29:38,479 --> 01:29:42,800 still tend to be leading the charge regardless of which way very much. So. 1297 01:29:44,079 --> 01:29:48,279 Obviously, as we continue to go into September, the seasonality is going 1298 01:29:48,319 --> 01:29:51,039 to start to play a role. It is, but I want to we 1299 01:29:51,159 --> 01:29:56,680 talked about mitigating whisk and the reason we want to mitigate risk is when we're 1300 01:29:56,680 --> 01:30:00,840 looking at the fact of valuations. And we started getting concerned last year with 1301 01:30:00,920 --> 01:30:06,359 valuations. Okay, PE price earnings race shows what do you think we are 1302 01:30:06,399 --> 01:30:12,800 at right now? A price earnings ray show we're about sixty's twenty five right 1303 01:30:12,840 --> 01:30:16,319 now? Okay, it's about twenty five times right On the average, an 1304 01:30:16,439 --> 01:30:25,239 average price earnings ratio is sixteen when it gets I've seen it at twelve to 1305 01:30:25,279 --> 01:30:29,800 fourteen, okay, but sixteen seventeen that area. You know, it's kind 1306 01:30:29,800 --> 01:30:32,319 of value pretty well. For us to get there right now, we got 1307 01:30:32,319 --> 01:30:35,680 to come down to just under three thousand on the SMP. That's a big 1308 01:30:35,760 --> 01:30:40,159 drop. That's all the thirty some moont percent, And that is why I 1309 01:30:40,319 --> 01:30:45,439 constantly keep patients until something changes. Right now doesn't mean it has to come 1310 01:30:45,439 --> 01:30:48,279 down there. Earnings can grow, that's the other way. So if earnings 1311 01:30:48,319 --> 01:30:53,640 grow, the price earnings ratio will come down also. But in this market 1312 01:30:53,960 --> 01:30:57,720 with high interest rates and everything going on, I don't see that happening. 1313 01:30:58,199 --> 01:31:00,399 If I see that changing, I'll get bullish. But in the meantime, 1314 01:31:00,439 --> 01:31:05,439 mitigating risk doesn't mean you go to cash. Mitigating risk doesn't mean you don't 1315 01:31:06,000 --> 01:31:11,680 mitigating risks. I'll still allows you to participate if the markets go up at 1316 01:31:11,680 --> 01:31:15,239 a lower rate, but it also protects you if the markets fall down. 1317 01:31:15,279 --> 01:31:16,760 And that's allocation too. Yeah, when we learned the last couple of years, 1318 01:31:16,760 --> 01:31:19,359 that's a big thing that we do differently than a lot of money managers. 1319 01:31:19,359 --> 01:31:23,640 We don't just sit there and tell you to wait it out because it'll 1320 01:31:23,640 --> 01:31:26,720 come back. We try and do what we can to actively mitigate as we 1321 01:31:26,760 --> 01:31:30,199 can. You know, and by doing that we can do inverse funds and 1322 01:31:30,239 --> 01:31:34,560 different things like that. Sell calls, sell calls, inverse funds, and 1323 01:31:34,880 --> 01:31:40,039 was talking about that like a Navidia part of my position. Okay, they 1324 01:31:40,079 --> 01:31:43,840 had a Navidio my position. I had a bunch of Navidia. I sold 1325 01:31:44,119 --> 01:31:48,159 calls the day that they were reporting earnings. Then when they came out, 1326 01:31:48,199 --> 01:31:50,319 I oh, man, I wish I didn't write those calls, right, 1327 01:31:50,680 --> 01:31:55,159 Not the fault desition, just part of the position. I got thirty five 1328 01:31:55,199 --> 01:31:59,279 dollars when the stock was at five sixty for Septembers that was one month out. 1329 01:31:59,640 --> 01:32:02,119 That means five ten if when over five ten, I couldn't get it 1330 01:32:02,439 --> 01:32:10,199 now sitting here after the markets went down, I'm happy that I sold those 1331 01:32:10,279 --> 01:32:14,319 calls. It mitigated part of my risk. Did I still give back about 1332 01:32:14,439 --> 01:32:16,279 the money, Yeah, But did I mitigate risk? Yes? That means 1333 01:32:16,319 --> 01:32:19,680 that money I made is my profit, right. I mean, you're not 1334 01:32:19,680 --> 01:32:23,239 going to be perfect, and if you're trying to be perfect, you're probably 1335 01:32:23,279 --> 01:32:26,840 gonna make more mistakes than anyone else. One person that can be perfect that 1336 01:32:27,039 --> 01:32:29,920 g O D. Yeah. If you're trying to be perfect, that means 1337 01:32:29,960 --> 01:32:31,239 you're market timing and you're trying to find the top, you're trying to find 1338 01:32:31,279 --> 01:32:34,159 the bottom, and that just doesn't work. Yeah, it never does. 1339 01:32:34,199 --> 01:32:39,239 So that's why you need to have a plan, right, it is based 1340 01:32:39,279 --> 01:32:42,359 on your risk tolerance. How important is it to reassess your risk tolerance? 1341 01:32:42,399 --> 01:32:45,520 Right here? Dean all the time, all the time. But the thing 1342 01:32:45,600 --> 01:32:51,159 that I fear is people reassess their risk tolerance is whether the markets sound higher. 1343 01:32:51,159 --> 01:32:54,720 They agreed in the fear factor, and that has nothing to do with 1344 01:32:54,800 --> 01:32:59,640 risk toleance. Tolerance needs to be when you're when you're neutral, and if 1345 01:32:59,680 --> 01:33:01,439 you're gon spend money when you need the money out of your portfolio. The 1346 01:33:01,479 --> 01:33:05,079 liquidity, it's all about liquidity and how you look at laws. Yeah, 1347 01:33:05,079 --> 01:33:09,560 but this year you run into is when is somebody neutral about their finances. 1348 01:33:10,119 --> 01:33:13,840 That's why sometimes other questions like okay, how fast do you drive on the 1349 01:33:13,840 --> 01:33:15,279 freeway? If the speed limit sixty five? Are you going seventy? Well 1350 01:33:15,279 --> 01:33:18,640 maybe you're a little more risky individual. Do you like skydiving? Yeah? 1351 01:33:18,680 --> 01:33:21,239 Give them real life situations. It's okay, we're been at my risk. 1352 01:33:21,359 --> 01:33:25,520 But the risk is you go over like say it's seventy and you go seventy 1353 01:33:25,640 --> 01:33:28,840 six. Will they get me at seventy six? Right? Like, you're 1354 01:33:28,840 --> 01:33:31,520 like eight your mind. Okay, you'd be a little more aggressive than a 1355 01:33:31,560 --> 01:33:34,359 balanced portfolio, but not so much. Right, you're going a hundred up 1356 01:33:34,359 --> 01:33:38,119 the phoenix. You're trying to get as fast as possible. You're probably gonna 1357 01:33:38,119 --> 01:33:41,560 have a risk all its ninety plus. Yeah, growth, but if you 1358 01:33:41,640 --> 01:33:44,159 got a ticket, then you fear it. You're never going seventy six. 1359 01:33:44,199 --> 01:33:46,000 So guess when you got to mitigate it? Right? Exactly? So you 1360 01:33:46,079 --> 01:33:53,000 mitigate risk by going seventy three six over? Isn't that the rule? I 1361 01:33:53,039 --> 01:33:55,560 say, I've heard this from a cop before. They said seven, you're 1362 01:33:55,600 --> 01:33:59,199 fine. Eight your mind. Interesting. I don't want to play the game, 1363 01:33:59,279 --> 01:34:01,199 but yeah, i'd normally try to go five. Well, there's not 1364 01:34:01,279 --> 01:34:05,439 a lot of information economic news coming out next week. We had it this 1365 01:34:05,600 --> 01:34:11,319 past week. So the markets can you know, with a light volume people 1366 01:34:11,359 --> 01:34:15,880 on vacation going and going into labor day, markets can creep up. But 1367 01:34:15,960 --> 01:34:18,159 be careful, don't get sucked into this thing. It can go back to 1368 01:34:18,279 --> 01:34:24,800 that forty five forty five fifty level and then we come into September. Be 1369 01:34:24,920 --> 01:34:28,800 careful what you're doing all right, allocate. But you know what, if 1370 01:34:28,800 --> 01:34:32,159 you haven't had a financial plan, I mean a real financial plan that takes 1371 01:34:32,159 --> 01:34:35,239 some time, you gotta put some time and effort into it. Give us 1372 01:34:35,239 --> 01:34:38,680 a call. I mean, we'll sit down, we'll go over the plan. 1373 01:34:38,760 --> 01:34:41,760 It's a three step process. You know. You gotta get you gather 1374 01:34:41,840 --> 01:34:44,159 your information, you gotta give it to the information. We gotta put it 1375 01:34:44,199 --> 01:34:45,000 in. You gotta sit with it. We've got to talk about it, 1376 01:34:45,159 --> 01:34:49,079 and then we come up with a plan for you, and then you execute 1377 01:34:49,119 --> 01:34:51,560 the plan. Whether you do it through us or through somebody else, that's 1378 01:34:51,640 --> 01:34:55,199 up to you. Obviously we want you to do it through us, but 1379 01:34:55,319 --> 01:34:58,520 that's you know, it's up to you if you think it's a good plan. 1380 01:34:59,279 --> 01:35:00,279 If you don't think it's a good plan, and go to someplace else. 1381 01:35:00,880 --> 01:35:04,359 But if it's a good plan, unless you're doing it yourself. I 1382 01:35:04,399 --> 01:35:08,359 hate when somebody goes someplace else and said, all, yeah, I like 1383 01:35:08,439 --> 01:35:11,880 that plan, I'll do that for you. Yeah, but we will give 1384 01:35:11,880 --> 01:35:15,000 you the plan. We're not We're not like bait and switch. We're not 1385 01:35:15,119 --> 01:35:16,680 like, okay, yeah we told you we did the plan for you. 1386 01:35:16,800 --> 01:35:19,239 We said that was free. We went over it. We'll let you see 1387 01:35:19,239 --> 01:35:21,640 it. But unless you do business, we're not giving it to you. 1388 01:35:21,720 --> 01:35:25,640 Nope, we'll give it to you whether you do business or not. Right 1389 01:35:26,239 --> 01:35:29,279 there's always a time to buy, there's a time to sell. Sometimes it's 1390 01:35:29,319 --> 01:35:31,000 just a time to go fishing and be patient, which is maybe where we're 1391 01:35:31,039 --> 01:35:34,279 at right now. And while you go fishing, build that financial plan if 1392 01:35:34,359 --> 01:35:38,359 you if you're fifty fifty right now, it's a very good balance and if 1393 01:35:38,359 --> 01:35:41,039 you have a headge on, you might be forty when the things too high. 1394 01:35:41,159 --> 01:35:44,039 You've got some income coming in, You've got some stuff. Don't expect 1395 01:35:44,039 --> 01:35:45,920 the world coming down because we don't have a huge market increase. We had 1396 01:35:45,960 --> 01:35:51,079 that already this year. But protect yourself from the other side. And you 1397 01:35:51,119 --> 01:35:56,840 know what, we got Memorial Memorial Labor Day coming up. We got a 1398 01:35:56,840 --> 01:36:00,560 week. Hopefully we'll keep moving in the right way. Should If not, 1399 01:36:00,960 --> 01:36:02,600 it can happen on the other side too. Liquidity can force you the other 1400 01:36:02,640 --> 01:36:04,399 way. I'm not gonna be it for the next two weeks, Steen, 1401 01:36:04,520 --> 01:36:09,079 So you're gonna hold on the show without me. I think I can handle 1402 01:36:09,079 --> 01:36:14,680 it all right. Everybody be happy. It's extremely important for everyone to be 1403 01:36:14,760 --> 01:36:17,319 healthy, say it's all. And at the end of the day we all 1404 01:36:17,359 --> 01:36:26,960 tried to be profitable scene. But it wouldn't be believe if you believed in 1405 01:36:27,159 --> 01:36:35,840 me. Yes, it's all in Campusky hanging over land tree, but it 1406 01:36:35,920 --> 01:36:39,479 wouldn't be believe if you