Creating a Solid Financial Plan: The Time and Effort Required for Success

100:00:03,839 --> 00:00:07,719Good morning, it's eight o'clock.It's Sunday morning, and this is the200:00:07,759 --> 00:00:10,279Money Matter Show. This is DeanGreenberg, and I will bring you,300:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,800with the rest of the group,two hours of information you try to help400:00:14,839 --> 00:00:20,160you, guide you through these marketsand make you some money. We'll save500:00:20,239 --> 00:00:25,079you some money, mitigate some risk. We'll talking about what we think is600:00:25,160 --> 00:00:31,359going on. We had other thanthe NASDAC, we had pretty much a700:00:31,399 --> 00:00:35,759flat market. The Dow was downa half a point h the SMP was800:00:35,840 --> 00:00:43,840up about one just point eight,and the excuse me, and then NAZDAC900:00:44,000 --> 00:00:50,079was up two point cent and theequal rated SMP was down point two percent1000:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,479for the month. Now we sitat the down down three and a half,1100:00:54,840 --> 00:00:59,679SMP down four percent, NAZDAC downfive percent, and that's the same1200:00:59,719 --> 00:01:03,599thing for the equal way to Sand P. Well they obviously then you1300:01:03,599 --> 00:01:08,680can see the NAZAC stocks. Thebig tech stocks ran up this week,1400:01:10,879 --> 00:01:15,319mostly because the video's earnings were comingout on last week and guess what,1500:01:15,799 --> 00:01:23,359they blew the doors off, blewthe doors off earnings and the stock went1600:01:23,560 --> 00:01:30,760way high after opened up the nextday thirty forty points higher, but reversed1700:01:30,799 --> 00:01:34,599in the same day as the marketscame down and fell the next day by1800:01:34,680 --> 00:01:41,560eleven points. So they went fromabout five ten all the way down to1900:01:41,719 --> 00:01:47,000four fifty from the beginning of theopening after its earnings to the lower So2000:01:47,040 --> 00:01:51,840what does that mean? Talk aboutthat today, But you understand that was2100:01:51,879 --> 00:02:00,359profit taking every and the analysts raisedtheir profits, their their projections six hundred2200:02:00,439 --> 00:02:07,240six to fifty. It's one ofthose generation stocks that you look at and2300:02:07,240 --> 00:02:12,319you say, Wow, everybody's usingit, when is it going to stop?2400:02:14,159 --> 00:02:16,719You could have said the same thingabout Apple, Amazon, all these2500:02:16,719 --> 00:02:21,840stocks. They're in a very sweetspot right now with an economy that's kind2600:02:21,840 --> 00:02:29,000of good, but we're trying tobreak it. But if there's only one2700:02:29,120 --> 00:02:36,400company in the artificial intelligence world rightnow that is benefiting, it's the video.2800:02:37,960 --> 00:02:43,240The video is benefiting because they havethe chip above all other chips.2900:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,919They have that one product. Nowthere's all the cheaper ones and things that3000:02:46,960 --> 00:02:51,879can do other things, but forthe super super super AI people, they3100:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,919got to buy this ten eleven thousanddollar chip and they are not stopping.3200:02:55,919 --> 00:03:00,319They keep buying and buying it tostay up on it. And that is3300:03:00,360 --> 00:03:07,240why in the video continues to rallyafter it gets knocked down. I don't3400:03:07,240 --> 00:03:08,639know how low it can go.I mean, you know it can go3500:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,039back to three fifty. I guessright. I don't know how I can3600:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,759go. But everyone's saying it's sixhundred and six fifty and no one.3700:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,879It was at two something, threesomething. We were looking for five.3800:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,560It got over five. Pullback,see what happens. But you better understand3900:03:23,639 --> 00:03:29,159something about stocks like that. Thatvolatility is incredible risky. Fear and greed4000:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,439is what you drive you on thatstock. And it's probably a stock a4100:03:32,560 --> 00:03:37,840company you want to own and nottrade unless you have a position that you4200:03:37,879 --> 00:03:40,159call your core position and that youdon't trade that, and then you have4300:03:40,199 --> 00:03:44,680your another one that you can tradeon a short term basis. If you4400:03:44,719 --> 00:03:50,080know what you're doing, it's veryrisky. And that brings me to the4500:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,039disclaimer. This show is brought toyou by Greenberg Financial Group. Greenberg Financial4600:03:55,039 --> 00:04:00,759Group is both the registered investment advisoryand a broker dealer register with the SEC,4700:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,400members of fin and members of SIPPIC. On this show, we talk4800:04:03,439 --> 00:04:09,280about different products and different strategies andwe all have ideas and we and we4900:04:09,439 --> 00:04:14,360discuss things. Everything has risk.Remember that. Just look at the video.5000:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,560Up and down fifty points in twodays, one hundred points. It5100:04:16,639 --> 00:04:21,199moves. That's risky. Everything hasa risk. Understanding risks, how do5200:04:21,199 --> 00:04:27,240you avoid some of the risk byallocations, understanding your risk tolerance, mitigating5300:04:27,319 --> 00:04:30,879risk. All these things are whatyou try to do in this type of5400:04:30,879 --> 00:04:34,360market. The O the big thingthis week this year, this week was5500:04:34,399 --> 00:04:45,040a Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and there'slittle discussion with the mucky MUCKs CEOs of5600:04:45,040 --> 00:04:49,399the world, and said he's probablynot done raising interest rates, and that5700:04:49,439 --> 00:04:53,399created a rally, then a decline, and then a rally at the end5800:04:53,439 --> 00:04:57,480of the day. I mean,I hate being into scenario that I want5900:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,800to bear economy, so we stoprating interest rate. I like a good6000:05:00,839 --> 00:05:06,519economy and keep rates pretty much wherethey belong. And they're too high right6100:05:06,560 --> 00:05:16,319now. We don't want to inflationover two percent. Historically rates on homes6200:05:16,319 --> 00:05:19,759are like four and a half fiveand they are about two percent higher than6300:05:19,800 --> 00:05:24,560they need to be right now orwant it to be. But none of6400:05:24,600 --> 00:05:29,399this is going to change, guys, until we have a Congress that's willing6500:05:29,439 --> 00:05:36,319to make changes. We constantly hearabout taxes. We constantly hear about paying6600:05:36,360 --> 00:05:41,560your fair share. We constantly hearabout where the money's got to go.6700:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,199They just don't run it the waythey need to run it, and they6800:05:45,199 --> 00:05:49,759don't believe. They believe way toomuch that spending a certain amount of GDP6900:05:50,040 --> 00:05:54,839is okay if you're growing the economy. But we're not growing the economy because7000:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,519they keep flowing down the economy,and that's when the rubber is going to7100:05:58,639 --> 00:06:03,600hit the road, and that's whenwe're going to have a problem. Mitigating7200:06:04,040 --> 00:06:14,279your portfolio risk right now is soimportant. Mitigating risk means not being in7300:06:14,319 --> 00:06:18,879a position that if this market goesdown twenty to thirty percent, then you're7400:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,959gonna watch your portfolio dropped that muchor more. You don't want to be7500:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,240in that position. If you are, that means you're all growth and you7600:06:26,759 --> 00:06:32,439can accept the rallies up and youcan accept the declines down. Most investors7700:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,360are greedy and allow it to goup and say I don't have a problem.7800:06:36,360 --> 00:06:40,360I should be more invested when themarkets are rallying, and then when7900:06:40,360 --> 00:06:46,439they go down they want to goto cash. Stay balanced right now,8000:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,600balance portfolio, and all the wayI look at a balance portfolio. You8100:06:49,600 --> 00:06:55,439can be forty to sixty percent investedright now. Being somewhere around fifty percent8200:06:55,480 --> 00:06:59,240invested is probably not a bad idea. And then maybe having a little hedge8300:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,000on it to bring it down percentthat you can move in and out and8400:07:03,040 --> 00:07:08,240then have the rest of bonds.You can get great income right now,8500:07:09,680 --> 00:07:14,680and you put some short term treasurieson, maybe a little bit longer out8600:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,600now that the yields are higher,you put and you just put a portfolio8700:07:17,800 --> 00:07:25,120together so you have a nice portfoliothat can handle the ups and downs in8800:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,360the markets if you have short termtreasures on. I'm not afraid of rates8900:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,600going higher. I do believe ifsometime rates will come down. So that's9000:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,480why you want to be out maybea little longer on the curve with some9100:07:35,600 --> 00:07:40,519of the money. And we're doingthat as we bring in an income,9200:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,360making sure that if it goes theother way and in three years from now9300:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,519treasury is a bunch lower than wecan do something benefit on the appreciation side.9400:07:49,759 --> 00:07:54,399It's not a time to just sitback and say, oh, whatever9500:07:54,439 --> 00:08:00,959happens will happen. Because we arein what I consider a yellow light,9600:08:01,519 --> 00:08:09,319yellow flag type of scenario with thewith the federal reserve. Every time we've9700:08:09,319 --> 00:08:15,480had a big move down where there'stwo thousand and one, two thousand and9800:08:15,519 --> 00:08:22,600eight, two twenty, the bigcrashes, there was a move into the9900:08:22,600 --> 00:08:28,639federal reserve that created a problem andcreated a liquidity problem, which is what10000:08:28,680 --> 00:08:33,879we have. And then there's noWhen you have a liquidity problem, there's10100:08:33,879 --> 00:08:37,639not enough money there to keep drivingthe markets higher, and then when they10200:08:37,639 --> 00:08:41,080fall, everyone panics and sells out, and then the markets fall and then10300:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,279things slow down. You have thatrecession and then the next thing you know,10400:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,399everyone's being a negative, and that'swhen you want to become positive.10500:08:48,960 --> 00:08:52,799It's a cycle. Matter how oldyou are, it's still a cycle.10600:08:54,440 --> 00:08:58,039Obviously, if you're younger, youcan handle that cycle more and you want10700:08:58,039 --> 00:09:01,279to keep put more money in asthe thing goes down. That's why he10800:09:01,399 --> 00:09:03,519dollar course Savage him went the following, k if you're older, you need10900:09:03,559 --> 00:09:09,480to mitigate risk. If you're fiftyplus you need to mitigate risk. That11000:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,840doesn't mean you're not going to lose. You're going to lose. But the11100:09:11,879 --> 00:09:18,120markets are in a position that wedo not have enough money coming in of11200:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,600new money. We have quantitative tighteninggoing on when the markets were rallying after11300:09:22,679 --> 00:09:28,360one or one to oh wait,guess what the markets did that because of11400:09:28,480 --> 00:09:33,159stimulus. Then they stopped the stimulusand then in all seven we had a11500:09:33,159 --> 00:09:39,679liquidity problem, and then that stemmedinto the economic problem with the banking situation.11600:09:39,879 --> 00:09:43,159In twenty nineteen, we had torun on the federal on the on11700:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,399the Federal reserve, banking on themember banks, interest rates went up,11800:09:46,519 --> 00:09:50,480the barrowing wait to went to eightand a half percent. The Federal Reserve11900:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,879had to step in and bring thatdown. But that was the prelude to12000:09:56,000 --> 00:10:01,080the twenty twenty with the the Whenthe pandemic came in, there was nothing12100:10:01,159 --> 00:10:05,559there underneath it to support the markets, and they fell over twenty percent.12200:10:05,840 --> 00:10:09,360Then they came down to a levelthat people were willing to buy as a12300:10:09,399 --> 00:10:13,679federal reserve, and everybody came backin and was starting to pump money into12400:10:13,799 --> 00:10:18,679it. See, government only doesthings they when there's panic out there.12500:10:20,840 --> 00:10:24,159When there's panic, and they lookedtowards the smart people to tell them what12600:10:24,279 --> 00:10:30,360to do. Obama had no cluein Owait what to do. Bush had12700:10:30,399 --> 00:10:33,600no clue in that. They lookfor the people that understand The one person12800:10:33,919 --> 00:10:37,759that I really believed that understood businessand had the right people in his cabinet12900:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,919was Trump. But the pressure fromeverybody to shut down the economy and do13000:10:43,000 --> 00:10:48,320all that stuff was so great.I don't believe he would have shut it13100:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,360down the way we shut it down. But he did come up with saying13200:10:52,399 --> 00:10:54,679given out money and doing everything elseto bring it on. The problem we13300:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,759had is the next president came in, which was Biden, had no clue13400:11:00,200 --> 00:11:05,240economics. All they ever did wasgive away free money. So the more13500:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,559free money they gave away, that'show they thought they handle everything well.13600:11:07,559 --> 00:11:13,000That stimulus created the inflation that wehad. They were not prepared to look13700:11:13,039 --> 00:11:16,679into the future and say what dowe do, and they have put it13800:11:16,759 --> 00:11:20,759all on the federal reserve to keepraising interest rates like they continue to do.13900:11:22,039 --> 00:11:33,799Political people are not understanding economics.Supply demand, right, That's simple.14000:11:33,240 --> 00:11:37,159When the supply is so low andthe demand is so great, prices14100:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,200go higher. We had a supplychain problem. What did we do to14200:11:41,279 --> 00:11:46,480fix it? Nothing? We letit happen over time. We don't have14300:11:46,519 --> 00:11:50,360a supply chain problem right now inmost areas will increase the supply chain.14400:11:50,080 --> 00:11:54,000Make the supply chain bigger than thedemand in the areas that we need to14500:11:54,919 --> 00:12:01,600and you'll see inflation come down.The first it's a place that I would14600:12:01,600 --> 00:12:07,159attack would be energy. You needto attack energy. We have so much14700:12:09,080 --> 00:12:15,639oil to be able to be ableto sell to our friends around the world,14800:12:16,279 --> 00:12:22,360but we allow them to get itfrom our enemies. We opened up14900:12:22,120 --> 00:12:26,840drilling in the United States of America, not only would we never be dependent15000:12:26,919 --> 00:12:31,720on anybody else like we are againnow, but we would be able to15100:12:31,799 --> 00:12:37,840keep oil prices down, which isone of the main reasons energy prices rising15200:12:37,120 --> 00:12:43,960have created the inflation that we have. It not only energy prices is pretty15300:12:43,039 --> 00:12:46,600much the core of it all.But think about it. Food prices go15400:12:46,679 --> 00:12:52,679up because the transportation of the foodgoes up. The gasoline prices go up,15500:12:54,279 --> 00:12:58,279and all we hear about is we'vegot to go ev ev ev electric15600:12:58,360 --> 00:13:05,279vehicles and it's not going over sogreat. And then and then bottom line15700:13:05,399 --> 00:13:11,919is they're trying to push something withouta full plan on how to execute it.15800:13:11,919 --> 00:13:16,159It's always about the planning process wehave. We preached that every week15900:13:16,240 --> 00:13:20,759on our shows. Your financial plan, your economic plan, things like that16000:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,200have to be over time. Youcan't just say, oh, okay,16100:13:24,200 --> 00:13:28,519now we're gonna go ahead and we'regonna cut out gasoline and cards and we're16200:13:28,519 --> 00:13:33,679gonna go do something. How doyou think how many people really understand?16300:13:33,840 --> 00:13:41,240If you if we need more electricity, how is that electricity actually made.16400:13:41,200 --> 00:13:46,360It's made with fossil fuels cold,but they want to get rid of that.16500:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,440How are we going to create theenergy we need? Don't tell me16600:13:50,480 --> 00:13:56,840that wind and sun are going tobe able to power up what we need.16700:13:58,159 --> 00:14:01,159If everything, all the automobile andtrucks and everything else bus us all16800:14:01,200 --> 00:14:07,720go to electric vehicles, we wouldnot be able to do it. I'm16900:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,120not the only one saying that.So many people are saying it around the17000:14:11,120 --> 00:14:16,440world. They're saying it. Wedon't have enough distribution of electricity. In17100:14:16,559 --> 00:14:22,759order for everyone to have the samesource, we need other sources. I17200:14:22,840 --> 00:14:28,559have no problems with alternative energy,but like everything, allocate, allocate,17300:14:28,679 --> 00:14:33,039allocate. If we were only allocatinginto one area and it all becomes alternative17400:14:33,120 --> 00:14:39,120energy and we don't have anything else, what happens when wind doesn't blow,17500:14:41,159 --> 00:14:46,159it's too cloudy for sun. Wewant to use energy at different places I17600:14:46,200 --> 00:14:50,360mean, you don't think about it. Okay, that's what's going to happen.17700:14:50,679 --> 00:14:56,559Common sense, which I think weare very short of back in Washington.17800:15:00,639 --> 00:15:05,919All we concentrate on in Washington rightnow this whole thing with Trump.17900:15:07,759 --> 00:15:13,879They want him to go to jailso bad so he won't be able to18000:15:13,960 --> 00:15:20,360run for president. And all thisis doing right now is changing so many18100:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,960minds of people that we're in thecamp of. I love the Trump policies.18200:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,600I don't want him to run.I'd rather somebody else go in to18300:15:28,759 --> 00:15:33,080like, you know, the hellwith this. I'm voting for Trump because18400:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,960the things that he gone ahead andsaid, what's happening happened. The lies18500:15:39,000 --> 00:15:45,240that were made against them are comingto fruition. All these indictments would never18600:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,360happen to anybody else. But morethan anything, what's going on right now18700:15:48,399 --> 00:15:56,480in our country, it's called fairness. Even the most critical people of Trump18800:15:58,799 --> 00:16:03,279that I know are saying it isnot fair that they are doing all this18900:16:03,399 --> 00:16:10,039to him on chumped up charges whenthe Biden family keeps escaping everything and we're19000:16:10,080 --> 00:16:17,720not even talking about the Clintons.People are tired of the two tier system,19100:16:17,759 --> 00:16:22,519and it's so blatantly happening in frontof us, that a political opponent,19200:16:22,960 --> 00:16:30,200the one that is leading everybody rightnow, is being tried in every19300:16:30,240 --> 00:16:40,440state they can by biased people,biased attorneys generals, biased states, and19400:16:40,480 --> 00:16:45,960they're hoping to get a biased,friendly court to indict him so he has19500:16:45,039 --> 00:16:51,559to go to jail. He mightbe the first person that will go to19600:16:51,639 --> 00:16:55,600jail and win the election. AndI hope that doesn't happen. It is19700:16:55,639 --> 00:16:59,840a disgrace. As many of youknow, I traveled a lot to summer.19800:17:00,320 --> 00:17:06,079They can't believe that we the people, we the people, are allowing19900:17:06,160 --> 00:17:15,160this to happen, That we're allowingone party to get prosecuted so badly and20000:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,039the other ones letting go. Andit's so blatant to people that are looking20100:17:18,119 --> 00:17:22,000overseas and looking into news and it'snot Odd News, it's not Fox News,20200:17:22,000 --> 00:17:27,240it's at all. It's CNN News, and they're not happy with it.20300:17:29,839 --> 00:17:32,440Even if people of cnna's starting towake up and go, wait,20400:17:32,960 --> 00:17:37,839wait a second, this isn't thefairest thing in the world here, but20500:17:37,960 --> 00:17:45,400they keep doing it because no onehas stopped them. We need to change20600:17:45,440 --> 00:17:51,799so many things that have to happenand I think more and more people believing20700:17:52,119 --> 00:17:56,359that Trump has to be the guy. He did it once, he's gonna20800:17:56,400 --> 00:18:00,640have to do it again. Fromthe border to the economy, me to20900:18:00,000 --> 00:18:07,960foreign foreign policy, to putting peoplethat are not at work back to work.21000:18:11,200 --> 00:18:18,759Stop giving them free stuff, Stopliving off everybody else. Go back21100:18:18,079 --> 00:18:23,559to what America is based on,what we've grown on, what our origins21200:18:23,559 --> 00:18:27,839are. You work hard, youget things that you need, what you21300:18:27,920 --> 00:18:33,319want. If you cannot do that, you're disabled, you're incapacitated, then21400:18:33,359 --> 00:18:40,640America will take care of you.But this whole thing now, people starting21500:18:40,680 --> 00:18:48,839to talk about putting mask back onmasks. Okay, because it's a new21600:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,240strain of COVID. Every year you'regonna have a new strain of COVID.21700:18:55,519 --> 00:18:57,640We need to say no, wedon't want to wear masks. We know21800:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,039they didn't work. We're not goingto do it again. Are they going21900:19:00,119 --> 00:19:04,440to start letting not allowing kids togo to school? Let me tell you22000:19:04,519 --> 00:19:11,079something. We asked a simple questionto high school kids, simple question,22100:19:14,920 --> 00:19:25,880what country is south of Tucson?What country is south of Tucson? Ninety22200:19:26,119 --> 00:19:30,839three percent of them got the answerwrong. But it's not that got the22300:19:30,880 --> 00:19:41,319answer wrong. It was the answersthey gave. We're so worried about teaching22400:19:41,400 --> 00:19:48,559all these other things to kids inschool, transgender equality, this, that,22500:19:48,720 --> 00:19:53,920all that stuff, we're not teachingthem simple peasic stuff that you need22600:19:53,960 --> 00:20:00,839to know. I could not believesome of the answers. Well, what's22700:20:00,839 --> 00:20:06,680the country south of Tucson? Andthey say south Tucson. Another said Nevada,22800:20:06,759 --> 00:20:11,720another said California, another said Europe, another said Africa, another said22900:20:11,759 --> 00:20:18,880Texas. A lot of them saidI don't know. I said California.23000:20:18,039 --> 00:20:25,440Is that a country estate? Theydidn't know the difference. We wonder why23100:20:25,599 --> 00:20:30,200we are forty eighth in the countryand why we can't go forward and get23200:20:30,240 --> 00:20:37,559things done. Our education system isworking and doing things on areas that we23300:20:37,599 --> 00:20:45,960don't need. Yeah, it's fine. I'm all about equal equal rights.23400:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,480I'm all about getting rid of racism. I'm all about that, But not23500:20:53,079 --> 00:21:00,519we need to go ahead and continueto teach, educate because of our education23600:21:00,559 --> 00:21:03,680goes down like it's being going down, we are going to be in trouble.23700:21:03,759 --> 00:21:07,359People. We are going to bein trouble if you don't have the23800:21:07,400 --> 00:21:12,480people that say the country south ofTucson is Mexico. We're in trouble,23900:21:14,839 --> 00:21:21,000we really are. And how wouldyou expect them to vote? The only24000:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,920thing they're gonna vote on is whatthey can get, what is free for24100:21:23,960 --> 00:21:30,359them. What are they going tobe able to benefit from. You're asking24200:21:30,400 --> 00:21:37,640people to go through and understand theconstitution, what our right saw. You24300:21:37,680 --> 00:21:44,599know where they learned? They learnfrom social media. So maybe we got24400:21:44,599 --> 00:21:52,759to use social media to start teachingbasics to our children. The biggest thing.24500:21:52,759 --> 00:21:55,480I remember the advertisement when we weretrying to get out of drugs.24600:21:56,880 --> 00:22:02,720Here's a frying pan. This isan egg. This is your brain on24700:22:02,799 --> 00:22:07,480drugs. When they put the egginto the frying pan and adjust bubbles up24800:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,440and fries I still remember that commercial, this is your brain on drugs.24900:22:15,920 --> 00:22:22,720It's effective if we can put theright things forward. It's embarrassing that kids25000:22:22,759 --> 00:22:32,720today, high school kids don't knowthe difference between countries and states. I25100:22:32,759 --> 00:22:36,200mean, I don't know, Idon't know, But yet we worry about25200:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,240all these other things. How arewe expected to do it? And that's25300:22:38,240 --> 00:22:44,279why we're divided. That's why ournation is so divided, because what we're25400:22:44,279 --> 00:22:48,680teaching kids politically and trying to getthe versions out. We are dividing us25500:22:49,039 --> 00:22:55,200between things that one believes in theother rather than no one's educated enough to25600:22:55,279 --> 00:22:57,119understand the difference. And if theywant, I guess what, most people25700:22:57,119 --> 00:23:02,920who are in the middle, mostpeople will compromise. It's a politicians that25800:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,079have done this down and put itin this place. We're gonna be talking25900:23:06,119 --> 00:23:10,359a lot about different things we got. We got a whole show coming up.26000:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,119Stay tuned, Thanks for listening.This is Dan Greenberg. This is26100:23:12,119 --> 00:23:22,200the money Bunting shows. Say it'sonly a papent sailing over cardboard scene,26200:23:22,200 --> 00:23:30,759but it wouldn't be make believe ifyou believed in me. Yes, it's26300:23:30,799 --> 00:23:40,279only Canvasky hanging over land tree,but it wouldn't be me believe if you26400:23:41,039 --> 00:23:48,960believed in me went out an'll love. It's a hog, it's talk worry26500:23:49,480 --> 00:23:59,720without love. It's some meality believinga penny hockey. It's a monnament me26600:24:00,079 --> 00:24:10,559in lead word yst But it wouldn'tbe believe if you and he did mean26700:24:26,640 --> 00:24:37,240yes. Welcome back everybody. Thisis Dean Greenberg. This is the money26800:24:37,319 --> 00:24:41,440Batty Show. Today we have ToddGlick and Dylan Greenberg with us. Dave26900:24:41,519 --> 00:24:45,640Sherwood took a trip to California togo see his grandchildren. Good for him.27000:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,640He needs to take more trucks.He's so funny. He's so funny.27100:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,279The kid. It's one hundred,one hundred miles earlier. He calculated27200:24:53,279 --> 00:24:56,799his outright to get there right whenthe kids are getting out as cool,27300:24:56,559 --> 00:25:00,880did he really? Yeah, listen, I'm so happy he goes to see27400:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,359his grandchildren and he has a goodtime. It's the only vacation he likes27500:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,440to do. Other than that,he likes to be in the office and27600:25:06,559 --> 00:25:10,599hike and hike. He's a goodhike up. Remember, Yeah, what27700:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,480was that two years ago? Now? Yeah, that's great. Well,27800:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,480wait, I guess someone else hasto do the weather report. I'm just27900:25:15,519 --> 00:25:23,680kidding ev today, not e deb. Obviously, the big news on28000:25:23,720 --> 00:25:29,960the market's weather report was Navidio's bigearnings report that came out on Wednesday after28100:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,720the close. I mean, theyjust absolutely killed it. Yeah, but28200:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,720you just see what suck did,right, Well, it went up to28300:25:36,759 --> 00:25:38,119five ten and after hours, andthen the next day it was up.28400:25:38,440 --> 00:25:44,720It ended up ended that day atfour sixty, and then it released its28500:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,200earnings that afternoon, and then afterhours it was five ten. It opened28600:25:48,200 --> 00:25:52,079the Thursday morning at like five ohfive, then slowly went down and ended28700:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,880the day flat, and then onFriday it was down four percent just and28800:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,559it was down twenty points at onetime, and Friday came back to Clement.28900:25:59,039 --> 00:26:03,799But it's not it's stock that youtrade to stock you hold right now29000:26:03,039 --> 00:26:07,960very time. It's it's one ofthose stocks that come in in your lifetime29100:26:07,680 --> 00:26:14,599that all the signs are together onit, where you might not get it29200:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,240right, but the stock for thenext couple of years. It's they're the29300:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,079ones that are driving AI. They'rethe ones that are actually making money.29400:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,720All these other fringe companies that everyonewants to buy because it's part of AILI29500:26:26,839 --> 00:26:30,240dot com. You gotta learn yourlesson from that. Okay, the dot29600:26:30,240 --> 00:26:37,680com company went down, except acouple of them. The the the AI29700:26:37,759 --> 00:26:41,839companies right now. You stay withthe good quality companies. And the video29800:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,119is the one making money off that. Michaels are spending a fortune, met29900:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,480is spending a fortune off of it. Yes, they're still making good money30000:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,880and their stocks are going up,but the video is the one selling them30100:26:51,960 --> 00:26:53,200chips. I mean the proofs andthe numbers, right, I mean when30200:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,440you see quarterly reports that are justas they're just beating expectations. No one30300:26:57,480 --> 00:27:02,759even has that. It's not aprice to magic ratio. They're really selling30400:27:02,759 --> 00:27:04,640stuff. It's really on the books, right, It's not like Tesla where30500:27:04,759 --> 00:27:08,960they're hypothecating growth. So what wasthe lesson you learned this week? And30600:27:10,559 --> 00:27:12,640well, it seems like it wasa profit taking lesson? Right, I30700:27:12,680 --> 00:27:17,000mean when it runs up, goinginto it, you want it? You30800:27:17,000 --> 00:27:18,839you you you went ahead and said, okay, this ain't going up anymore,30900:27:19,559 --> 00:27:23,920and you sold into it before theearnings came out, and for good31000:27:23,960 --> 00:27:30,680reason. History would tell you thatthat happens sometimes. But right when off31100:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,400stock is too high, it makessense. But in the videous fanness,31200:27:34,559 --> 00:27:38,079it did run up because the earningsare good. It's pulled back on profit31300:27:38,119 --> 00:27:42,640taking of people buying into it andhaving having too big of a position and31400:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,599cutting the back. And then somefear too that it is going to go31500:27:45,599 --> 00:27:49,000all the way down. Yeah,but listen, when I've seen this in31600:27:49,039 --> 00:27:55,400my in the history of it,where I see all the analysts raising their31700:27:55,960 --> 00:28:00,799prices. Are the price of targets, the stock could come down, but31800:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,319it then gives them that much moreto go up. It's just I think31900:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,720for you or two they knock itout of the palk. We talked about32000:28:07,759 --> 00:28:11,200it last week too, how theyintroduced their new chip that they haven't even32100:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,880started selling yet, which is goingto be able to make everything with the32200:28:14,839 --> 00:28:18,440AI quicker than it already is.And I already sold out of the current32300:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,480ship for what months, and thatten thousand dollars a chip. They didn't32400:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,480price out the new one. Butit's the idea that there's just decades ahead32500:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,440of other AI companies. Yeah,I don't think there's any competitors either.32600:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,359I mean I've been looking at AMDfor a while now, and that's really32700:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,960the closest two in the video that'sout there right now. They were down32800:28:33,000 --> 00:28:37,480eight percent on Thursday when the videoended flat, right, and they started32900:28:37,519 --> 00:28:41,200the day up two percent, right. Well, there's a lot of profit33000:28:41,240 --> 00:28:45,480taking going on. We came into Friday also with the Federal Reserve chairman33100:28:45,559 --> 00:28:48,119talking Powell. That was kind ofa weird day two. The markets went33200:28:48,240 --> 00:28:53,160high when down Pig came back andfinished up on the upside. We have33300:28:53,240 --> 00:28:59,160a lot of selling into rallies rightnow. There's a lot of resistance mitigating33400:28:59,279 --> 00:29:02,200risk right now, so important wekeep talking about it all the time.33500:29:02,559 --> 00:29:04,880We're coming into September. I couldsee a rally next week a little bit.33600:29:04,880 --> 00:29:10,359We're coming into labor day, Imean maybe two percent of something maximum33700:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,559three possibly, I could see itrallying a little bit, but then I33800:29:12,599 --> 00:29:15,240see it coming all the way rightback down lower them. Where we were33900:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,960into month of September and October,Well, if you're looking at historics,34000:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,039I mean the market rallies into threeday weekends, which is going to come34100:29:23,079 --> 00:29:26,480up for the first weekend of September, and then the market has been down34200:29:26,519 --> 00:29:30,400over all in September historically, Soif we're going off that, yeah,34300:29:30,519 --> 00:29:33,960we could see a little rally andthen pull back, but then it does34400:29:33,039 --> 00:29:37,079tend to come back in October.Yeah. When jero Po spoke today,34500:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,519well Friday at Jackson Hole, therewas not a lot of things that he34600:29:41,599 --> 00:29:45,000was saying that was spooking the markets, but really the developments in the labor34700:29:45,039 --> 00:29:48,519market was where he was really spendinga lot of time on saying that he34800:29:48,599 --> 00:29:51,720likes that the fact that he's notseeing the growth that he was seeing a34900:29:51,720 --> 00:29:56,200couple of months ago. And that'sreally his concern of seeing continue wage growth35000:29:56,480 --> 00:30:00,359continue. I mean that's that's leadsto inflation. And he came out and35100:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,319said we're stayings firm on our twopercent target. You see a whole bunch35200:30:03,319 --> 00:30:06,279of people trying to say, maybethey go to three, maybe they give35300:30:06,359 --> 00:30:08,960up on the two percent fet sharepouces. That's not happening at all.35400:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,960It's never even hinted at it.Now. His biggest problem is we have35500:30:14,200 --> 00:30:19,279a workforce that keeps shrinking. Yeah, okay, which means then work then35600:30:19,319 --> 00:30:23,400the prices are going high and productivityis going down, okay, because people35700:30:23,400 --> 00:30:30,200are getting paid more wanting to doless. The new indicator is the core35800:30:30,279 --> 00:30:36,279PC and wage growth, right,wage growth. And the problem is to35900:30:36,359 --> 00:30:38,480try to get wage growth out ofthis. It's how you're going to get36000:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,880it when when you're at three anda half percent, three point six,36100:30:42,240 --> 00:30:48,359But send unemployment, Yeah, theyhave to get them off free money.36200:30:49,559 --> 00:30:55,759You get them more free money.Someone's going to go to work or or36300:30:56,799 --> 00:31:02,599instead again in details, we changethe immigration policy, okay, we actually36400:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,279bringing me and educate them and gettingthem into jobs that we need. Yeah,36500:31:06,319 --> 00:31:07,920I think a lot of people don'trealize the demographics of the United States.36600:31:07,960 --> 00:31:14,119We are continuously giving left, birthingless people each year, right,36700:31:14,200 --> 00:31:18,240so the millennials are just not gettingI guess, how do you say this,36800:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,119birthing children the same rate that babyboomers were, So you're not replacing36900:31:23,119 --> 00:31:26,839the labor force. There's more peopledying than people are being born. It's37000:31:26,839 --> 00:31:29,119down quite a bit too. Backin the baby boomers, back in the37100:31:29,119 --> 00:31:32,799fifties and all and sixties were havingan average three point two kids, and37200:31:32,799 --> 00:31:36,359now it's like two point six.Yeah, kids, And it doesn't sound37300:31:36,359 --> 00:31:41,240like a big drop. It's one. It's one kid for family, yeah,37400:31:41,319 --> 00:31:44,480right, and there's no law onit like China had where now they're37500:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,000experiencing theirs. And it's not likeour economy states stagnant since the baby boomers.37600:31:48,119 --> 00:31:51,960I mean, it was very common. My parents friends had eight nine37700:31:52,079 --> 00:31:57,079seven kids at four and that wasn'ta lot. Okay, that was like37800:31:57,119 --> 00:32:04,039average apparently, yeah, kind offrom the fifties and to sixty fifty seven37900:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,680to fifty eight sixty seven. Nowit's about two and a half. Yeah,38000:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,480I mean, and a lot ofpeople think it's because of the urbanization38100:32:09,559 --> 00:32:13,960of everything, like when you getmore into cities. I don't know how38200:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,720true that is. It's also youcan't afford it. You want to give38300:32:16,720 --> 00:32:21,359your kids a good life and puthim into college. I went to college38400:32:21,359 --> 00:32:24,799who was five thousand a year fortuition. Now that same college is sixty38500:32:24,799 --> 00:32:28,960thousand dollars a year. There wasa thing saying that since I think nineteen38600:32:29,079 --> 00:32:32,079seventy, everything has done, likethe housing prices, gas, all this38700:32:32,079 --> 00:32:37,880stuff has done about ten to twelvetimes increase, But the wages and the38800:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,920average salaries only done like six orsix times that much. So it's not38900:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,319keeping up with everything else inflating thatmuch. And that's the issue that we39000:32:45,400 --> 00:32:46,599run into. And then like,okay, we can't afford more kids.39100:32:47,839 --> 00:32:53,880It's not even six times. BecauseI look at your grandparents when was it39200:32:54,000 --> 00:32:59,119nurse thinking about twenty two twenty three, there's no way that you would be39300:32:59,119 --> 00:33:02,960making six times twenty one hundred andtwenty thousand. Yeah. Yeah, in39400:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,839New York. Yeah, it dependson in New York. It could be39500:33:07,000 --> 00:33:12,119grandpa, my dad. What forthe phone company? Okay, he was39600:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,599making forty five fifty, You thinkthey would make it two fifty three hundred39700:33:15,599 --> 00:33:19,279now, no way, Yeah,but I mean keep in mind, I39800:33:19,279 --> 00:33:22,480mean, New York's a different inflationzone than than other areas. Yeah,39900:33:22,480 --> 00:33:27,519because I think one hundred thousand dollarsthere, it's the same as about sixty40000:33:27,599 --> 00:33:30,359here. No, it is,it is. Well, he talk in40100:33:30,400 --> 00:33:34,480New York City though obviously there's yeah, there's different demographics there. Yeah,40200:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,160Okay, Long Island's a little cheaperprobably than Manhattan. You know, so40300:33:37,519 --> 00:33:40,720looking at what we look, Imean the next FED meetings end of September,40400:33:40,839 --> 00:33:44,720right, it didn't sound like he'sreally wanting to raise race. It40500:33:44,720 --> 00:33:46,240sounds like he wants more economic datato come out. So it sounds like40600:33:46,240 --> 00:33:50,839he's just gonna hold so he wantsthe economy to go downhill. Yeah,40700:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,319so we can stop wasting interest rates. Yes, he did say he's prepared40800:33:53,319 --> 00:33:55,680the raise interest rates so if hehas to. Yeah, and didn't say40900:33:55,680 --> 00:34:00,400the word cut once. So he'snot even thinking because there's still they're still41000:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,519stronghold on two percent inflation, right, Yeah, and that's what's gonna happen.41100:34:02,559 --> 00:34:05,920Then it's gonna sit in do theother thing you have. Right now,41200:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,880the market is gonna go up.It's gonna be light by. Most41300:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,760people are going on vacation. We'vebeen on vacation back East. On vacation.41400:34:12,079 --> 00:34:15,480You don't usually go back to schoolto the end of August begin or41500:34:15,519 --> 00:34:19,119after Labor day, so this isvacation time. Everybody after the labor day41600:34:19,159 --> 00:34:22,000comes back. Then they start toset reassessing on where we are and what's41700:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,400going on. And that's when youshoot for some reason, is when you41800:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,920see the biggest declients. Yeah,why is that? If it's that whole41900:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,559old monster who was selling May andgo away and then you come back after42000:34:30,639 --> 00:34:36,280Labor day. All the traders comeback after vacation and they're back and September42100:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,760is down. Well, because whathappens is that if the markets are rallying42200:34:39,800 --> 00:34:44,639into it or not, the marketsgo down for whatever reason, all right,42300:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,159and that's when they come back andbuy again September October. But you42400:34:47,159 --> 00:34:52,199could also make a case that theintroduction of more and more automated trading systems42500:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,159still of course, that's what Ibelieve too. I mean, I'm all42600:34:55,159 --> 00:34:58,920over in Europe and I'm able totrade. Oh, that's all I'm talking42700:34:58,960 --> 00:35:00,559about. Back in the day beforethat was a thing used to sell them42800:35:00,599 --> 00:35:02,840and go wait, that's not athing anyway. Back in the day,42900:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,800how do you think we used todo trades? You to send it through43000:35:06,800 --> 00:35:08,000the like at the bank. Yousend it through the thing, you write43100:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,760it down on a on a pieceof paper or whatever. Your order sheet43200:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,760you had you had to buy andsell sheet. You had to fill out43300:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,960this whole ticket. You had togo to what was called the window.43400:35:17,599 --> 00:35:22,400You had to give it to thethe the wire operator at the window.43500:35:22,920 --> 00:35:28,360Okay, she took it, sheput it in the order maybe thirty minutes,43600:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,159forty five minutes later, if you'relucky, you got back to Phil.43700:35:31,000 --> 00:35:35,679How many days did it take tosettle when that was when we first43800:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,679start, when I think that firststarted was five Yeah, five days,43900:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,559five days. They're about to turnit down to one day settlement. Yeah.44000:35:40,760 --> 00:35:45,000Well, because everything's electronic, peoplehad certificates, they had to bring44100:35:45,079 --> 00:35:46,480them in and stuff like that.All right, we'll be back. It's44200:35:46,519 --> 00:35:50,960the money about his show. Iappreciate your listening. This is Stan Greenberg,44300:35:51,039 --> 00:35:55,400and it is the money about theshow. Hang it all, but44400:35:55,599 --> 00:36:07,559it wouldn't. Well, welcome backeverybody, and Dean and Todd and Dylan44500:36:07,599 --> 00:36:12,480and we're bringing you the Money Mattersshow. Did we do the the market44600:36:12,559 --> 00:36:15,320update A numbers this week? Idid? I did at the beginning.44700:36:15,920 --> 00:36:20,320I want to I want to bringup because before we get off this AI44800:36:20,400 --> 00:36:28,800subject. But the other day Ihad to get into my Exfinity account because44900:36:28,800 --> 00:36:34,760I wanted to change things around.You cannot talk to anybody anymore. I45000:36:36,039 --> 00:36:39,320get getting how can I help you, sir? I like to go ahead45100:36:39,360 --> 00:36:43,239and do this. Okay? Oneminute they come back, and I kept45200:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,440having questions and I finally got tothe frustration part. Can I speak to45300:36:46,480 --> 00:36:51,119a human please? I can helpyou. What do you need? Can45400:36:51,159 --> 00:36:53,880I speak to somebody that can actuallyhave a conversation? I think I can45500:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,960help you. What can I do? This went on for ten minutes.45600:36:59,119 --> 00:37:00,679Ten minutes. They say, well, if I can't help you, I45700:37:00,719 --> 00:37:05,920will give you a live chat.Okay, I give me a live agent.45800:37:06,480 --> 00:37:07,599But I think I can help you. First let me know what you45900:37:07,719 --> 00:37:13,880need helping. I was so frustratedwith the stupid AI stuff and not talking46000:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,800to anybody because I didn't even know. I said, how do I know46100:37:15,920 --> 00:37:21,199this is the best what I need? I just made some changes. Tell46200:37:21,199 --> 00:37:23,599me what you're looking for? ThenI finally said, okay, do I46300:37:23,679 --> 00:37:27,719have this, this, and this. No, you don't have this,46400:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,559but if you want it, Isaid, well how do I get it?46500:37:30,599 --> 00:37:31,639Well, you have to do thisand it's going to cause you this46600:37:31,719 --> 00:37:35,440much money, I said, butI already pay for those other things.46700:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,599Do those come off? I don'tknow if I can help you. Give46800:37:38,639 --> 00:37:42,639me a live agent. I needa live agent. Finally I got a46900:37:42,639 --> 00:37:45,559live agent. It wasn't live.It was still texting on a computer.47000:37:45,920 --> 00:37:50,519But at least they had a conversationwith you. It wasn't AI. Stupid47100:37:50,559 --> 00:37:52,119answers when you go on a phone. If you're on a phone call and47200:37:52,159 --> 00:37:55,679it just keeps telling you through AIstuff to say representative and most of the47300:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,719time I'll send you to a liveperson. Sometimes you can pound nine zero47400:37:59,840 --> 00:38:04,119nine starts. I will tell youright now if that's the way the world's47500:38:04,159 --> 00:38:09,559going to it is with only AI. God bless you guys. It sucks.47600:38:10,199 --> 00:38:14,719You can't because you can't have adeep conversation. You can't get them47700:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,039to help you do anything. Yeah, if you guys go that here,47800:38:17,360 --> 00:38:21,760forget it. I better not bearound. Well, there's there's something actually,47900:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,000it's funny you bring that up becauseit kind of leads into what I48000:38:23,039 --> 00:38:28,519wanted to talk about with robo advisorsis obviously we understand that robo advisors really48100:38:28,559 --> 00:38:35,039came big into like twenty fifteen,early to twenty tens, where robo advisors48200:38:35,039 --> 00:38:38,280really started to being used for peoplewho don't know. Robo advisors are really48300:38:38,320 --> 00:38:42,480just what it kind of sounds like, a robot advisor. There's no human48400:38:42,559 --> 00:38:45,239that you interact with. It's justthey put you into a model, you48500:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,519tell it what you want, andthen it just does it for you.48600:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,880But what a lot of these roboadvisors have been finding, for example,48700:38:52,920 --> 00:38:58,039betterment, they are now introducing humansto enter into the equation. They added48800:38:58,119 --> 00:39:01,199human advice back in twenty seventeen,and most robo advisors now are taking that48900:39:01,280 --> 00:39:05,639hybrid approach because you're right, Deing, people do want to have a deeper49000:39:05,639 --> 00:39:08,280conversation, not just the surface level, especially when it comes to something as49100:39:08,280 --> 00:39:14,760important as their financial life. Well, humans actually ask questions back to find49200:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,320out what you want. That's what'samazing about this business. No, you're49300:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,719a client, but you had allthese financial plans, all these things.49400:39:21,960 --> 00:39:25,119Oh it's all on computer. Okay, you know, just answer these questions,49500:39:25,639 --> 00:39:30,719how do you think about our questionsthat we actually ask a client passpects,49600:39:31,199 --> 00:39:35,519We find out everything about them.It's the only way you can deal49700:39:35,559 --> 00:39:37,199with it. They had ground children, all these other stuff. What do49800:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,679they want You get a feeling ofwhat they really are about. Well,49900:39:40,719 --> 00:39:45,679what they realize going to twenty seventeenis that it's not just a trading mechanism50000:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,519and algorithm like they were trying togo to that this business is still a50100:39:47,559 --> 00:39:52,880relationship business, and that's why theyneed the human element that robots don't offer.50200:39:52,639 --> 00:39:58,159Right, there's only one advisor thatrobot advisors still completely robotic. It's50300:39:58,199 --> 00:40:00,320Wealth Front, But like I said, Better Men and all the other one50400:40:00,400 --> 00:40:05,639wealth Front okay, but all theother ones like Better have a hybrid approach.50500:40:05,639 --> 00:40:09,280And Vanguard's hybrid option overseas far moreassets than the purely digital robo advisor.50600:40:09,360 --> 00:40:13,960They managed about two hundred and seventyone billion versus thirteen billion. What's50700:40:13,960 --> 00:40:15,599the same idea? He just hadhis issues with Exfinity. Right, when50800:40:15,639 --> 00:40:19,679you have an issue with your financialstuff and it's your money, and you50900:40:19,679 --> 00:40:21,679want to get an answer, andyou can't because you gotta go through all51000:40:21,679 --> 00:40:23,719these hoops on AI. You're notgoing to be happy. Yeah, I'm51100:40:23,760 --> 00:40:28,880not even comfortable like doing it allthe zoom or something, you know,51200:40:29,039 --> 00:40:31,119like like in these big cities theyall get it on the zoom, But51300:40:31,159 --> 00:40:34,039how do you even get these people? You know what I'm saying. Not51400:40:34,239 --> 00:40:39,800only that, I mean eighty percentof language is communicated through the body.51500:40:37,440 --> 00:40:43,960Thank you. If you just havethe words, that's only twenty percent of51600:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,199the equation. The body language givesyou a lot of emotional feedback. Good51700:40:47,199 --> 00:40:51,920thing the radio can't see that.But at the end of the day,51800:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,679it's important to actually have a relationshipwith your advisor, right and especially if51900:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,440you're just looking on the other sideof a screen. How can you really52000:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,679have a relate if you don't haveany relationships? Think about what this is52100:41:02,679 --> 00:41:08,360doing to real relationships. Okay,don't think it doesn't spill over to human52200:41:08,440 --> 00:41:13,679relationships, married couples and stuff likethat. As we're growing up, you52300:41:13,679 --> 00:41:17,000guys are a little bit different.You want a relationship, and see how52400:41:17,000 --> 00:41:22,480hard it is to find someone ofthe opposite sex to actually beat deep want52500:41:22,480 --> 00:41:27,280to have a relationship, They allsay it, but nobody understands how to52600:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,280have one. It's called conversation,like pick up the phone and talk,52700:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,800not texts. Oh you talk tothat person? Oh what do they say?52800:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,039Oh I don't know, we justtexts. I mean that's conversation.52900:41:38,320 --> 00:41:43,760Passion is incredible. People don't havepassion anymore. They're so afraid, let's53000:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,840just say mediocre this business. Youstay right where we are, the roots,53100:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,599the old school roots, they stillwork. Yeah, but at the53200:41:50,679 --> 00:41:52,360end of the day, a lotof people do still have passion, and53300:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,639a lot of people do still likethe converse human to human, but it's53400:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,239getting less and less, it seems. But then the people that do still53500:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,760like doing that tend to be moreoutgoing. They're more successful too. It's53600:42:02,760 --> 00:42:07,400more happy. And how many timesactually pick up a phone and talk to53700:42:07,440 --> 00:42:12,159a girl my mom not your mom? Will talking about it? Like the53800:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,760ask a girl out for a date. No, it doesn't happen. It53900:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,199doesn't happen until probably like you,like on a third date or something like54000:42:17,199 --> 00:42:21,119that. So what would happen ifyou tried it? But they think you're54100:42:21,159 --> 00:42:23,079weird? Yes, I don't knowmy age, No, not really,54200:42:23,159 --> 00:42:25,639I think a lot of my age. I mean, if you call someone54300:42:25,639 --> 00:42:30,159it's weird you FaceTime them, it'sless weird. That's how it is.54400:42:30,639 --> 00:42:34,039You FaceTime someone, it's less weird. But that's even weird in the sense54500:42:34,079 --> 00:42:38,360that people younger than you only converseon Snapchat, no texting. They don't54600:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,719text. They ask for their snapchat, not their number anymore, which at54700:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,559least make Snapchat like a company thatyou think might last, no for stock54800:42:45,719 --> 00:42:50,079going back to the markets, mightlast if they have that demographic, they54900:42:50,079 --> 00:42:52,639actually will have one. Yeah,I don't know, a little crazy and55000:42:52,679 --> 00:42:54,480it's gonna be text at the endof the day. And I think there55100:42:54,559 --> 00:42:58,920is that. It's the same thingas social media, right, people who55200:42:58,920 --> 00:43:02,559are don't ever talking public. They'rethe biggest mouse on social media because they're55300:43:02,559 --> 00:43:06,639behind the screen. It's protection,right, you're not we don't have to55400:43:06,639 --> 00:43:08,280be worried about if you get rejected. Who cares. It wasn't really you55500:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,880that got rejected. It's your digitalself, right, you're not connected.55600:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,039So it's like that separation of self. I don't get out. People have55700:43:15,119 --> 00:43:17,199hundreds of texts on red though,and they're like, oh, I just55800:43:17,199 --> 00:43:21,519suck at texting. It's like butthey don't call them back or yeah that55900:43:22,039 --> 00:43:23,960or like the conversation. People won'thave a voicemail set up, yeah,56000:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,000or they're not a listen to avoicemails. A voicemail box is full,56100:43:29,079 --> 00:43:31,840you know, it's like, it'sit's pretty easy. It's it's it's it's56200:43:31,880 --> 00:43:37,360a sad commentary between them not knowingstates and countries, not wanting to communicate,56300:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,840not wanting to talk. But whenwe talk, where do we go56400:43:39,880 --> 00:43:44,760as a country? This is allthis is all different. I mean,56500:43:45,320 --> 00:43:50,719it's you know, we've gone froma united collective to more and more individual,56600:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,119individualistic, selfish. Yes, that'swhy I will not hire anyone that56700:43:54,119 --> 00:43:58,599has ever played a team sport again, no eye and scene. But going56800:43:58,599 --> 00:44:00,360back to the robots real quick,I mean, the best robo advisor ranked56900:44:00,400 --> 00:44:07,000on all things in terms of totalfinancial planning, transparient conflict transparency and conflicts57000:44:07,039 --> 00:44:10,559features, customer experience the whole nineyards. Schwab Intelligent Portfolios led the way,57100:44:12,239 --> 00:44:16,639Meryl Guided is the second, andthe bottom was so far and better57200:44:16,719 --> 00:44:22,760Mints, So take that for whatyou will. And the best performing robo57300:44:22,800 --> 00:44:27,920advisor was Fidelity to Go on afive year annualized basis and wealthfront so take57400:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,719that away. It will Thank you, mister Robot. I appreciate it.57500:44:32,559 --> 00:44:37,920You know obvious, yes, obviouslywe had the Central Bank with the Fed.57600:44:37,000 --> 00:44:40,559Did you see what the China Chinadid on Monday? They did not57700:44:40,679 --> 00:44:44,400lower rates as much as the marketwas expecting, right, which is kind57800:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,239of surprising. You'd think, whywouldn't they You know, everyone was expecting57900:44:47,280 --> 00:44:52,440it, and they're having a lotof problems over there, and you know58000:44:52,480 --> 00:44:54,840they're they're trying to help the mortgagepolicies, they're trying to lower the rates58100:44:54,840 --> 00:45:01,360a little bit, but why wouldn'tthey lower him completely? He's not an58200:45:01,360 --> 00:45:08,840economist. Is all about communism,not the economies. He hasn't been schooled58300:45:08,840 --> 00:45:15,360on that, okay, because incommunism they control everything. You make it58400:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,039too much money, we take someof it back. You don't have enough58500:45:17,039 --> 00:45:20,119money, we give it to you, but just what we want in return.58600:45:20,599 --> 00:45:24,199That's how he looks at economics.Yeah, his everything is about military,58700:45:25,000 --> 00:45:29,280be the strongest military, take overall these areas in the world.58800:45:29,679 --> 00:45:31,119That's what he's doing well. Andthen they're also trying to do the whole58900:45:31,159 --> 00:45:36,719bricks thing. I'll lead that.They are leading that talking about how they're59000:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,679going to devalue the dollar and this, and that's putting a lot of fear59100:45:38,719 --> 00:45:42,840into people's minds because they see iton media and they don't really know what's59200:45:42,840 --> 00:45:45,159going on. But at the endof the day, the dollar is still59300:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,920the main currency being traded in oil, which they keep That's the biggest one59400:45:47,960 --> 00:45:53,239is that they talk about how Indiais using rupees in the ruble and stuff59500:45:53,280 --> 00:46:00,280like that to trade oil. Butthe Indian India is foreign minister. Y,59600:46:00,360 --> 00:46:04,760I'll find the word. It's financeminister. Their finance minister said that59700:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,119it's not even gonna happen for along time. If the dollar loses value59800:46:07,119 --> 00:46:09,440in the trade of the whole world, it's going to take a long time.59900:46:09,639 --> 00:46:12,800He's like, I wish the rupiewould be the main one, but60000:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,920it's just I'm realistic. It's notgoing to lose value like people think it60100:46:15,000 --> 00:46:19,880is right now. He's telling thisto CNBC, and he's because they are60200:46:19,920 --> 00:46:22,519still the main dominant currency is thedollar trading around the world. And you60300:46:22,559 --> 00:46:25,679can't just stop that, even thoughthe media is making it seem like they60400:46:25,679 --> 00:46:30,800are just stopping. Because back todollar, okay, and and what really60500:46:30,800 --> 00:46:36,239backs the dollar, right, Let'sget real detailed. Well, you should60600:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,079be gold, but it's not gold. What backs our dollars are military?60700:46:38,400 --> 00:46:43,159Okay, it really is. Ifanyone disputes us, we go in and60800:46:43,159 --> 00:46:46,039we put our military on that lane. Right, that's what That's just deep.60900:46:46,119 --> 00:46:52,320I like it. So as longas we have the world strongest military.61000:46:52,320 --> 00:46:54,320I don't think, well, that'swhy she only wants to do with61100:46:54,320 --> 00:46:58,760the military. He thinks that's theanswer to It does seem like she's trying61200:46:58,760 --> 00:47:02,159to go less way. He's nottrying to continue the globalistic trend, the61300:47:02,199 --> 00:47:07,239globalism right. He wants to bemore centralized and not dependent on the external61400:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,719countries. It'll coming up to theheartbreak when we come back. We're going61500:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,559to talk about how do you planfor all this? We're get in a61600:47:14,559 --> 00:47:17,639little bit more details, how doyou mitigate the risk? And I'm gonna61700:47:17,679 --> 00:47:22,679talk a little bit more of youknow why I'm in a yellow flag and61800:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,519not a red flag yet. I'mlooking for a big market turndown. But61900:47:25,719 --> 00:47:29,960it means that we probably don't havea big upside at all right now,62000:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,679So be cautious, be careful,and that's the stance you need to take.62100:47:32,719 --> 00:47:36,440We'll be right back it's Stein Greenberg, just the money Amotter show.62200:47:36,960 --> 00:47:49,119Me. Yes, it's all Caniskyhanging all the theletrink, but it wouldn't62300:47:52,679 --> 00:47:59,159welcome back everybody to the second hourof the Money Matter Show to repeat the62400:47:59,199 --> 00:48:01,880markets this week, we're actually upa little bit, except the doubt that62500:48:01,960 --> 00:48:05,800that was down a half a onepercent. S and P was up just62600:48:06,079 --> 00:48:09,079under one percent, NASTAC up twopoint three percent. For the month,62700:48:09,079 --> 00:48:14,239they're all down. That was downthree and a half, s ANDPS down62800:48:14,280 --> 00:48:19,800four, nastac's down over five,and the equal weightedt SMPS down over five62900:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,960also. So what does this mean, Well, it means in August we're63000:48:22,960 --> 00:48:27,320going into September. It means where'sthe money to keep making markets higher?63100:48:27,639 --> 00:48:32,440Interest rates keep going higher? Youknow, the bottom line is we continue63200:48:32,480 --> 00:48:37,039to tell people to be cautious.Right Gold was up a little bit this63300:48:37,079 --> 00:48:39,360week, Oil was down a littlebit this week. So not too many63400:48:39,400 --> 00:48:43,880moves in the commodity space. Theinterest rates didn't. I mean, they63500:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,239ticked up higher and then they kindof came down a little bit after Drone63600:48:46,239 --> 00:48:50,719House boke. So if you believelike we do, to be cautious right63700:48:50,719 --> 00:48:53,519now until we get through this interestrate thing until we start seeing some things63800:48:53,559 --> 00:48:58,760turn, until the markets actually falloff. See we go through the recession,63900:48:58,880 --> 00:49:01,800we churn. But the idea isyou always have to be prepared beforehand.64000:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,119And the only way you're gonna dothis is you put a plan together64100:49:05,679 --> 00:49:08,159and you guys can talk a littlebit about the plan and what you've been64200:49:08,199 --> 00:49:14,679seeing and how it's been working.It blows my mind on how many people64300:49:15,159 --> 00:49:17,920want a plan but don't have oneright now, twenty nine percent of people64400:49:19,559 --> 00:49:24,559that have investable money I have aplan. Twenty nine percent to people have64500:49:24,599 --> 00:49:30,679a plan. Sixty I think itwas sixty seven percent of people said they64600:49:30,719 --> 00:49:35,719should have a plan. That's morethan half don't have a plan. That's64700:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,639say they should. I'm not surewho the other thirty percent is, but64800:49:39,159 --> 00:49:40,920yeah, And at the end ofthe day, the main thing that plan64900:49:42,000 --> 00:49:43,840does is help us get to knowyou, and that's how you build a65000:49:43,880 --> 00:49:45,400relationship. Like we were talking aboutin the first hour. I mean,65100:49:45,440 --> 00:49:49,360we met with a couple of peoplelast week and we find out exactly what65200:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,119they want, where they are rightnow, how they're invested, and the65300:49:52,159 --> 00:49:55,679reasons as to why they're not happywith their investments. It's not like they're65400:49:55,679 --> 00:49:59,280in bad stocks or anything, anypenny stocks. They're like that, we're65500:49:59,280 --> 00:50:01,519just tanking. It was what's theirallocation was not in line with their risk65600:50:01,559 --> 00:50:05,440tolerance. But they never really lookedat it. They just gave it to65700:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,320somebody years ago and just left itand didn't look at it. But now65800:50:07,320 --> 00:50:09,119they're looking at it and they say, yeah, I don't really want this65900:50:09,199 --> 00:50:14,400much risk anymore. I'm hitting retirement. I'm in retirement. I want more66000:50:14,519 --> 00:50:17,360security, more guarantee in that sense. And when they say words like that66100:50:17,400 --> 00:50:21,840and everything like that, we getto an idea of who they are and66200:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,679what their goals are through retirement.And really the only way that can happen66300:50:24,760 --> 00:50:29,159is if we go through that financialplan and help you figure out where you66400:50:29,159 --> 00:50:30,599want to go through retirement. That'swhat the best part about it is.66500:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,880Yeah, and the financial plan isnot just for the person that's going into66600:50:35,920 --> 00:50:39,519retirement in five years or in retirement. It's for everyone. I mean,66700:50:39,599 --> 00:50:44,000for example, we had a familythat came in this week in their forties66800:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,840and they have, you know,the common goals. They want to pay66900:50:47,840 --> 00:50:53,800off college for their youngest, theywant to build up a retirement nest egg67000:50:53,960 --> 00:51:00,280enough to satisfy their living spending thatthey're currently living at. Because oviously,67100:51:00,280 --> 00:51:04,440if you're spending a hundred twenty thousanddollars now, in twenty years with inflation,67200:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,880it's going to be a lot lotmore. So you can't think of,67300:51:07,920 --> 00:51:08,760Okay, how am I going toget to a one hundred twenty thousand67400:51:08,760 --> 00:51:12,360dollars a yearly income because by thetime you get that, that's not going67500:51:12,400 --> 00:51:15,159to be a quality of life thatyou actually want to live. And it's67600:51:15,159 --> 00:51:19,119hard for people to really think whenthey're twenty years away from retirement, how67700:51:19,199 --> 00:51:22,239valuable is this to me? Right? Because it's like so many things can67800:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,199change, and that's exactly it.Things do change, But if you never67900:51:25,239 --> 00:51:29,519start, how do you know howit changed in the first place? Right,68000:51:29,559 --> 00:51:32,199You're just spitballing at that point.That's why when we have someone in68100:51:32,239 --> 00:51:36,239their thirties, forties or fifties,we want to meet once a year,68200:51:36,360 --> 00:51:39,599we want to redo the financial planand things will change every single year,68300:51:39,679 --> 00:51:44,039whether it be income to a slideamount which will change Social Security and a68400:51:44,079 --> 00:51:46,480slide amount which changes for one Kcontributions in a slide amount. All these68500:51:46,480 --> 00:51:50,320things are things to look at aswell as life insurance, especially for the68600:51:50,559 --> 00:51:53,199individuals in their thirties and forties andfifties that have dependents that rely on them,68700:51:53,599 --> 00:51:59,599especially single income households. If you'renot exactly analyzing how much life insurance68800:51:59,599 --> 00:52:02,280you need to protect your family,and then you never actually planned for it68900:52:02,519 --> 00:52:07,639and that unfortunate event ever happens,that's a very bad place to be putting69000:52:07,639 --> 00:52:09,280your family in. Yeah, younail it to The younger you are,69100:52:09,280 --> 00:52:13,719the more frequently you have to updateyour financial plan because there's a lot more69200:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,960variables that come into your life throughoutthe years, rather than when you're retired,69300:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,679you're pretty much set. You haveyour idea of you probably will travel69400:52:20,920 --> 00:52:22,719more. That's the main thing wesee. And then you want to leave69500:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,400stuff to your grandkids, to yourkids or something like that, or a69600:52:25,480 --> 00:52:30,039charity. But when you're forty orwhen you're in your thirties, you're gonna69700:52:30,039 --> 00:52:30,599have all of a sudden, youhave a kid, all of a sudden,69800:52:30,599 --> 00:52:34,039you have another kid, or youall of a sudden get a huge69900:52:34,039 --> 00:52:37,239promotion, and your lifestyle can change. But you want to see how that70000:52:37,280 --> 00:52:42,719will fit going twenty years forward andit's so hard for people to actually understand70100:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,280compound interest, right because when you'retwenty years away and say, okay,70200:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,360I'm putting ten thousand away into myformum on kay, what does that mean?70300:52:47,559 --> 00:52:51,000What is that going to grow to? Well, we had that actually70400:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,480on last Monday, we went wentwith a client and she wanted her daughter70500:52:53,519 --> 00:52:58,840to start learning about all that.She's nineteen and there's the idea that she70600:52:58,840 --> 00:53:00,239didn't know much about to say,seeing she wanted to kind of show her70700:53:00,280 --> 00:53:04,960and have us walk her through somedifferent ideas of how to start saving and70800:53:05,000 --> 00:53:07,639ways to get going and as astudent as a college and you obviously aren't70900:53:07,679 --> 00:53:10,000going to have a ton of moneyto save. That's not when you're making71000:53:10,039 --> 00:53:14,159your money. But it's the ideaof building the habit early is really what71100:53:14,239 --> 00:53:16,440we try to drive home. Youstart building the habit early. What if71200:53:16,440 --> 00:53:20,519it's putting twenty dollars away a month, whatever it can be for you.71300:53:20,519 --> 00:53:22,039You build a habit that'll just keepgrowing as and then all of a sudden71400:53:22,039 --> 00:53:24,599you're making more money in your thirties, you'll have the habit of Okay,71500:53:24,599 --> 00:53:30,159I put this portion away of myend of my salary I'll put this away71600:53:30,239 --> 00:53:31,679because I've already don This is whatI'm gonna keep doing it, and it's71700:53:31,679 --> 00:53:35,039the idea of compounding interests at it. We showed her if she started to71800:53:35,119 --> 00:53:38,800say today, forty five years fromnow when she retires, or forty forty71900:53:38,880 --> 00:53:43,039years from now when she retires,it's gonna be and you just max siwey72000:53:43,159 --> 00:53:45,679roth iiraa is what we showed her. It was max siwey roth ira every72100:53:45,760 --> 00:53:50,239year one or forty years one pointfive million dollars. If she waited twenty72200:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,320years to do it, so youcut it in a half, it would72300:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,599be two hundred and seventy four thousanddollars, and then it's okay, I72400:53:54,719 --> 00:53:59,599have to make up for it anotherway, so you double your investments,72500:53:59,599 --> 00:54:02,000but still wait twenty years. Itdidn't go to one point five million.72600:54:02,400 --> 00:54:06,000It only went to five hundred andseventy four thousand, So it doesn't.72700:54:06,039 --> 00:54:09,599The compounding interest is what really getsyou, and the biggest doubles are later72800:54:09,679 --> 00:54:14,679on in life when they're roughly sixtythe most out of twenty, right,72900:54:14,719 --> 00:54:19,320I mean, the most valuable resourceasset. Any young person has its time73000:54:19,559 --> 00:54:24,239exactly and it's so hard because humansdon't understand compound interest. It does exponential73100:54:24,559 --> 00:54:28,679does not compute in our heads,right, we are log meritic thinkers,73200:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,320So it just does not work orcompute. I mean, for example,73300:54:31,360 --> 00:54:35,639I've always told this people. Ifyou try to fold a piece of paper,73400:54:35,719 --> 00:54:37,760and theoretically you're able to fold apiece of paper unlimited amount of times,73500:54:38,199 --> 00:54:40,440how many times would it take tofold a piece of paper on top73600:54:40,440 --> 00:54:45,880of itself to reach from the Earthto the moon. I don't know.73700:54:45,559 --> 00:54:49,159Yeah, a lot of people think, okay, one hundred or a thousand,73800:54:49,159 --> 00:54:52,880a million times, it's only fortytwo times you fold a piece of73900:54:52,880 --> 00:54:54,599paper on itself. Forty two times, that's the length from the Earth to74000:54:54,639 --> 00:54:58,159the moon. And a lot ofpeople that the nerds, there's no way,74100:54:58,199 --> 00:55:00,920there's no way it is. That'sthe power of compounding interest. Because74200:55:00,920 --> 00:55:04,760once you get up to those lawof large numbers and you start doubling those74300:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,519large numbers, you're talking about hugeincreases. Yeah, and that's the power74400:55:07,559 --> 00:55:12,880of compounding. So again, peoplehave to realize that when you're young,74500:55:13,000 --> 00:55:15,159the most valuable asset you have istime, and don't think that all the74600:55:15,239 --> 00:55:20,400variables that come into your life iswhy you shouldn't start now. That's actually74700:55:20,400 --> 00:55:22,960why you should. There's always anexcuse as to why to start later.74800:55:23,719 --> 00:55:28,400But everybody I've talked to in theirthirties and forties that didn't start in their74900:55:28,400 --> 00:55:31,360twenties wish they start in their twentiesbecause and the same reason for everybody.75000:55:31,440 --> 00:55:35,440They said, in my twenties,I didn't care in my twenties, my75100:55:35,440 --> 00:55:37,679twenties, I wasn't making a bunchof money. I figured, I'll deal75200:55:37,679 --> 00:55:39,159with it in my thirties. I'lldeal with it when I have a family.75300:55:39,360 --> 00:55:42,519I'll deal with it when I havea house already, or if I75400:55:42,519 --> 00:55:45,079can buy a house, I'll dealwith it then. Then it is already75500:55:45,079 --> 00:55:49,159after the fact that it's too late. And every one of them said they75600:55:49,199 --> 00:55:51,559wish they started earlier, and theywish they started in their twenties, and75700:55:51,599 --> 00:55:54,320they wish they had somebody and tellthem in their twenties just start, yeah,75800:55:54,440 --> 00:55:58,199just start, and it'll work.I mean, you can't. But75900:55:58,480 --> 00:56:01,039I've always seen this time and timeagain. People will find a way to76000:56:01,039 --> 00:56:05,280spend the money. Yep. Ifthey have a quality of life, say76100:56:05,320 --> 00:56:07,000one hundred thousand, and they getbumped up to one fifty, they're gonna76200:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,679find a way to spend one fifty. They're gonna take more vacations, they're76300:56:09,679 --> 00:56:13,199gonna buy nicer stuff. They're gonnajust do it and always find a way.76400:56:13,199 --> 00:56:16,079It's pretty easy to spend more money. Right. What everyone needs to76500:56:16,079 --> 00:56:21,639do is find a percentage. Right. It's all based on proportions, right,76600:56:21,719 --> 00:56:27,760Find a percentage of your take homepay that you can every month put76700:56:27,800 --> 00:56:30,719away into some type of investment account, whether it be your four one K76800:56:30,079 --> 00:56:34,719I Ray, whatever it may be. Those type of things are so important.76900:56:34,760 --> 00:56:37,039Those needs to be. They needto be thought of as a bill.77000:56:37,639 --> 00:56:39,440Right. When you have a carbill, that's not a negotiable thing77100:56:39,519 --> 00:56:42,800like oh I didn't have enough thismonth, I can do it. It's77200:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,880like, well, you have toor you're gonna get the charge late fees.77300:56:45,239 --> 00:56:49,159Right. So that's how your brainshould think about future investments and with77400:56:49,239 --> 00:56:52,719it. The idea is, don'toverextend yourself because you're feeling all of a77500:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,480sudden you have to save everything.Give yourself a percentage where you won't have77600:56:55,519 --> 00:56:59,719to mess with it. If sayit's three percent, say it's five percent,77700:56:59,760 --> 00:57:01,840say ten percent, whatever it is, give yourself a percent is where77800:57:01,840 --> 00:57:05,800you can do it constantly every monthwithout having a mess with it. Just77900:57:06,079 --> 00:57:08,480stick with ten percent forever. Yeah. Vanguard says they want you to do78000:57:08,519 --> 00:57:12,599around thirteen to fifteen percent of yourtake on pay and that's a lot.78100:57:12,639 --> 00:57:15,199That's hard for people who haven't started, right. Yeah, so start at78200:57:15,199 --> 00:57:19,760three, start at five percent,and then every year increase it by one78300:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,760percent. That way, you're notgoing to notice it as much, but78400:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,480you'll get to eventually that thirteen fifteenpercent, and you have a roadmap to78500:57:25,519 --> 00:57:28,880get there. Instead of saying,oh, I'll do it when I get78600:57:28,920 --> 00:57:30,519that raise, or oh I'll doit when this happens. The roadmap is78700:57:30,559 --> 00:57:35,400the best part we in. Itdoesn't work because then you lose track of78800:57:35,440 --> 00:57:37,800time, You lose track of everything. It's just you don't have a plan.78900:57:37,960 --> 00:57:38,960And a lot of people are like, well, what does ten dollars79000:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,400do? I might as well noteven do it if that's my proportion.79100:57:43,280 --> 00:57:45,079Well, if you have that moneyto spare, that's what matters. Again,79200:57:45,719 --> 00:57:50,079everything is proportional. The person makinga million dollars or one hundred thousand79300:57:50,079 --> 00:57:52,960dollars putting away ten percent is doingthe exact same thing for themselves, and79400:57:52,960 --> 00:57:55,559if you start with the ten bucksa month or whatever it is, you'll79500:57:55,599 --> 00:57:58,519feel a lot happier than the year. If you have one hundred and twenty79600:57:58,559 --> 00:58:00,719dollars all of a sudden in asavings account that you didn't have before because79700:58:00,719 --> 00:58:04,360you spent it all and now youcan save up and you're like, oh,79800:58:04,400 --> 00:58:06,719I can do more next year.I felt good about that. And79900:58:06,760 --> 00:58:09,800if you're young, please put abudget together. It is sound. I80000:58:09,840 --> 00:58:15,360know everyone tells you this and itsounds like everything you've heard in school and80100:58:15,440 --> 00:58:19,679from your grandparents and parents, butit's a very important thing to at least80200:58:19,800 --> 00:58:23,079analyze yourself on a monthly basis.Me and Dylan do it every single month,80300:58:23,119 --> 00:58:27,960and it's probably our We dread itevery month because it shows us where80400:58:28,000 --> 00:58:30,559we spent the money, and everymonth we're like, how the heck did80500:58:30,559 --> 00:58:35,719we do that? But we knowat that point it keeps you responsible and80600:58:35,760 --> 00:58:37,079accountable, because I mean there's weekendswhere I'm like, I go away and80700:58:37,119 --> 00:58:39,400I say I have a little toomuch fun in my head, I'm like,80800:58:39,559 --> 00:58:42,719I didn't have that much fun,I'm all right, and then I80900:58:42,719 --> 00:58:45,280put it into my budget. Playingin my expense sheet, and I saw81000:58:45,320 --> 00:58:49,440I did have too much fun,so I gotta slow down the next month.81100:58:49,480 --> 00:58:52,840But if I didn't put it inthe sheet and actually hold myself accountable81200:58:52,119 --> 00:58:55,000to see that I did have alittle too much fun, then I wouldn't81300:58:55,000 --> 00:59:00,840have slowed down the next month.Right, And so let's let's switch right81400:59:00,920 --> 00:59:06,679from the young individual to the personapproaching retirement. Obviously, this person is81500:59:07,280 --> 00:59:13,079the most in need of a financialplan because they're entering the most important phase81600:59:13,119 --> 00:59:16,800of their life. They're exiting theaccumulation phase and entering the de accumulation phase81700:59:17,199 --> 00:59:21,159yep. And a lot of thesepeople either are gonna have pensions, they're81800:59:21,159 --> 00:59:24,039gonna have Social Security, they're gonnahave required minimum distributions, they're gonna have81900:59:24,119 --> 00:59:29,360Medicare premims that are based on theirincome, so whether they're taking large distributions,82000:59:29,920 --> 00:59:31,320that all comes into play. Ifyou think you could do that all82100:59:31,360 --> 00:59:35,400in your head, you're crazy.It needs to be on a piece of82200:59:35,440 --> 00:59:37,519paper, in a software, somethingthat you can refer back to, because82300:59:37,719 --> 00:59:42,360humans are valuable, right, Sodon't think that you're perfect. No one82400:59:42,480 --> 00:59:45,320is. But when you can havesomething to refer back to and understand why82500:59:45,360 --> 00:59:47,719you're doing what you're doing. Youdon't. You don't get scared when the82600:59:47,719 --> 00:59:52,440markets are down, because if youhit that first retirement the markets down twenty82700:59:52,440 --> 00:59:54,159percent and you didn't put a plantogether, you're gonna freak out. You're82800:59:54,159 --> 00:59:57,400gonna think, oh, I gottachange my plan, even though you never82900:59:57,400 --> 01:00:00,599had one in the first place,whereas if you had one, plays you83001:00:00,639 --> 01:00:04,360know, Okay, we expected this, we knew this could happen, and83101:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,320it would. This plan is stillgonna work no matter if this continues.83201:00:07,400 --> 01:00:07,960Well, that's a big thing.We look at too. At the end83301:00:08,000 --> 01:00:10,400of the plan, once it's allcompleted and everything, we've had a cash83401:00:10,440 --> 01:00:14,920flow chart of everything. We puttogether. It's onto one sheet and we83501:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,159look at it's called the combined detailsheet, and we take it's from the83601:00:17,199 --> 01:00:22,480Monte Carlo simulation of a thousand differentscenarios of your retirement plan, good to83701:00:22,599 --> 01:00:24,800bad to the worst. We takeone of the worst ones to see if83801:00:24,840 --> 01:00:28,800your plan can work during this worsttime. And it's either bad time in83901:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,360retirement, like if you've retired intwo thousand we had three down years in84001:00:31,400 --> 01:00:36,639a row, or just the returnand it's timing and if it's that,84101:00:36,719 --> 01:00:38,239but we look at one of theworst times, and if you can succeed84201:00:38,320 --> 01:00:43,119during that it is you'll most likelysucceed because but in that sheet, it84301:00:43,239 --> 01:00:45,760shows, Okay, you're four.I retired. It was just a flat84401:00:45,800 --> 01:00:50,079year for three years. But I'mstill my portfolios all right, because I'm84501:00:50,079 --> 01:00:52,679still taking my retirement money on.I still got this Social Security coming.84601:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,239And then all of a sudden,year four was minus thirty percent. But84701:00:55,280 --> 01:01:00,199then it shows, okay, nottoo good. It shows that you're whole.84801:01:00,519 --> 01:01:04,199Total portfolio value went down thirty percent, but the next year was up84901:01:04,199 --> 01:01:06,280thirty percent. The next year afterthat was up ten percent. We went85001:01:06,320 --> 01:01:07,800into a five year bull market,and all of a sudden, your plans85101:01:07,800 --> 01:01:12,079more than it was. If youdon't know that, if you don't see85201:01:12,119 --> 01:01:15,039at least not that in your headthat that could happen, all you would85301:01:15,039 --> 01:01:17,039see four years in the retirement isa thirty percent down here, and all85401:01:17,039 --> 01:01:20,840of a sudden, you're not workinganymore, you're taking money out. It85501:01:20,840 --> 01:01:22,360could freak you out. You couldget scared of it because you don't know85601:01:22,360 --> 01:01:25,280what's going to happen next, Whatcould happen next if you never thought about85701:01:25,320 --> 01:01:30,639it, right, And so wedeliver those expectations to the client, we'd85801:01:30,719 --> 01:01:34,559show you the worst case scenario.We're not sitting here trying to give false85901:01:34,599 --> 01:01:37,400expectations. That's why we use oneof the worst scenarios, right, and86001:01:37,480 --> 01:01:42,119we expect ourselves to do better thanthat. But we don't, you know,86101:01:42,599 --> 01:01:45,800guarantee anything, because obviously everything inthe markets is a non guarantee.86201:01:46,280 --> 01:01:51,079That's why we used the Monte Carlosimulation. We talked about it last week86301:01:51,119 --> 01:01:54,440with how gambling organizations use that tofind how much risk they're exposed to.86401:01:55,199 --> 01:02:01,760It's really hard to calculate risk otherthan using simulations, you know what I86501:02:01,760 --> 01:02:07,039mean. And a lot of peopledon't understand the sequence of returns, right.86601:02:07,079 --> 01:02:09,239If you have three down years ina row or only one bad year86701:02:09,400 --> 01:02:13,360down year in a row, andthen let's say, for example, you86801:02:13,400 --> 01:02:16,239have three down years to start retirementand then the next seven years are good,86901:02:16,559 --> 01:02:21,880or you have a down year everyother year for ten years. Right,87001:02:22,519 --> 01:02:24,119When you have a different set ofsequence of returns, you're gonna have87101:02:24,159 --> 01:02:30,000a different type of portfolio that adifferent impact on your portfolio because of liquidity,87201:02:30,239 --> 01:02:34,360the more a portfolio goes down,the less you're gonna be able to87301:02:34,559 --> 01:02:38,159have liquid obviously, things like annuities. How are you going to actually be87401:02:38,199 --> 01:02:42,679able to utilize annuities if you're justdoing something on the back of a napkin87501:02:42,719 --> 01:02:45,840saying, Okay, I need twentythousand dollars of income a year. I87601:02:45,920 --> 01:02:49,039know, uh well, sorry,let's say fifty thousand dollars of income a87701:02:49,079 --> 01:02:51,679year. I know twenty thousand comesfrom Social Security. I got a ten87801:02:51,719 --> 01:02:53,880thousand dollars pension, so I needtwenty thousand out of my IRA. Okay,87901:02:53,880 --> 01:02:59,079I'm gonna take my IRA, I'mgonna put it into this annuity that's88001:02:59,119 --> 01:03:01,639gonna guarantee me twenty thousand a year. But what happens if that twenty thousand88101:03:01,639 --> 01:03:07,199a year that you're getting from theannuity lumps in all of your liquid assets,88201:03:07,480 --> 01:03:09,400and then one of those years inretirement you have an emergency expense,88301:03:09,480 --> 01:03:13,119say your roof. You need toreplace your roof, you need twenty thousand.88401:03:13,119 --> 01:03:15,719You don't have access to any ofthat. What happens then you didn't88501:03:15,719 --> 01:03:21,960think about the liquidity side of retirement. You love the guaranteed income, but88601:03:21,960 --> 01:03:24,159what does that do for you nowwhen you don't have enough in the bank.88701:03:24,239 --> 01:03:29,280So we look at a multitude ofthings. When finding the best product,88801:03:29,360 --> 01:03:32,960investment, the best strategy for someone, it's the risk, it's the88901:03:34,000 --> 01:03:38,159goals and objectives, It's how safethey are from a liquidity standpoint, What89001:03:38,239 --> 01:03:42,719kind of protection do they have.There's a lot of what kind of pension89101:03:42,719 --> 01:03:45,679guarantees do they have? Right?And another thing that we always do in89201:03:45,719 --> 01:03:52,119our scenarios is we put social securityat an increase of less than one and89301:03:52,159 --> 01:03:55,519a half percent that the actual inflationrate goes to. So say in the89401:03:55,559 --> 01:03:59,840plan, the inflation rates at twopoint five percent, we're only growing social89501:03:59,880 --> 01:04:02,880security at one percent each year.Many financial plans think, oh, so89601:04:03,280 --> 01:04:06,800is gonna grow with whatever inflation is. We all know that that's never the89701:04:06,800 --> 01:04:11,679case because Medicare premiums increase of inflationincreases, and that the ducks out of89801:04:11,719 --> 01:04:15,239your soul security. So a lotof plans are fallible because they're not actually89901:04:15,519 --> 01:04:19,000thinking about realistic scenarios. A lotof plans don't even include Medicare costs.90001:04:19,360 --> 01:04:24,480Right, Okay, we're taking moneyout of our IRA each year, that's90101:04:24,519 --> 01:04:28,039taxable income. What happens if thatsense is to the next bracket, now,90201:04:28,079 --> 01:04:30,679our Medicare premiums jump up. Nowwe're getting less so security. Now,90301:04:30,679 --> 01:04:32,199how much income do we have?Really? Yeah, that's the idea90401:04:32,239 --> 01:04:35,039with how we run our financial plansas this idea of giving you a realistic90501:04:35,119 --> 01:04:39,800look. We don't want to justtry and buff it up to make it90601:04:39,800 --> 01:04:42,440look good to make you happy soyou do business with us. We want90701:04:42,519 --> 01:04:45,039to make it look as realistic aspossible because I know social security is a90801:04:45,119 --> 01:04:47,719huge thing right now that people getscared of that it might not be there90901:04:47,800 --> 01:04:51,320or it's gonna go away quicker thanthey say. So that's why we give91001:04:51,360 --> 01:04:57,079the realistic outlook of what we seeand we're here to help. For example,91101:04:57,159 --> 01:04:59,880we just had someone to come inwe've done a lot of work for.91201:05:00,639 --> 01:05:02,360We're not going to get a dimefrom him, Nope, because we91301:05:02,360 --> 01:05:06,199don't. It's not always about whatwe get, it's about what we can91401:05:06,239 --> 01:05:10,920give. But what we did andwhat helped him figure out now he's pretty91501:05:11,000 --> 01:05:13,159much gonna be set for what hewants to do for the rest of retiring91601:05:13,199 --> 01:05:15,480with him. And and it wasn'tthat he needed more income, you know,91701:05:15,599 --> 01:05:19,480it wasn't that he needed more investmentreturns. It was he wanted a91801:05:19,519 --> 01:05:24,119specific goal and wanted to know howcan I obtain it? And that's what91901:05:24,239 --> 01:05:27,159we did through creating the financial plan, and then at the end of the92001:05:27,159 --> 01:05:29,760time and then we had the ideaof where he wanted to go. It92101:05:29,800 --> 01:05:31,199was just different. It's going togo a different route where we're not going92201:05:31,239 --> 01:05:34,559to manage money, and that's perfectlyfine. We still created the plan with92301:05:34,679 --> 01:05:39,000him, gave him the plan allfree. That's not why we're here to92401:05:39,039 --> 01:05:42,440do it. We're doing to herethe help because now that's a huge load92501:05:42,440 --> 01:05:45,119off his chet. He was sohappy when he walked out of here because92601:05:45,119 --> 01:05:46,679now he gets to enjoy the lifethat him and his wife wanted to enjoy92701:05:46,960 --> 01:05:49,079the rest of their life. Whatdo I owe you guys who said nothing?92801:05:49,400 --> 01:05:54,599Maybe just a review on Google exactly. That's all we'll ever ask for,92901:05:55,079 --> 01:05:58,639because really, the satisfaction we getout of helping people is so much93001:05:58,679 --> 01:06:00,960more than the satisfaction than any figurecan give you. Yeah, you know93101:06:00,960 --> 01:06:03,920what I mean. That happiness thatwe saw in his face, knowing that93201:06:04,280 --> 01:06:08,280we had his best interest in mind. Whether it made us money or not,93301:06:08,760 --> 01:06:11,760we don't care about that. Wecare what's the best for this client.93401:06:11,960 --> 01:06:14,519And if it's not with us.It's not with us, you know93501:06:14,519 --> 01:06:16,480what I mean. We're never goingto be the people that force anyone into93601:06:16,480 --> 01:06:20,559a product because it means more dollarsin our pocket exactly. And what we93701:06:20,960 --> 01:06:24,039try and listen to what the needsare I mean, and if it is93801:06:24,079 --> 01:06:27,960guaranteed stuff, then we do godown the annuity route because we can't offer93901:06:28,039 --> 01:06:30,559guarantees. That's just not in ourbusinesses, can't offer them. We're not94001:06:30,599 --> 01:06:33,199sitting there selling annuities. But ifyou guarantee is what you're looking for,94101:06:33,239 --> 01:06:36,199we can't help you in that aspectas well, and we never suggest putting94201:06:36,239 --> 01:06:40,760your whole portfolio into an annuity.And the beautiful thing about our financial plan94301:06:40,920 --> 01:06:45,559really our team is we're not justplanners, right. We have connections to94401:06:45,039 --> 01:06:51,480people who know understand reverse mortgages,mortgages themselves, estate planners, CPAs,94501:06:53,280 --> 01:06:58,960property and casualty right all homeown andin general exactly, I mean, anything94601:06:59,000 --> 01:07:02,280that could affect your finance life,we have someone something connected to it that94701:07:02,320 --> 01:07:05,159can help you and we all worktogether so they know they're we're all on94801:07:05,199 --> 01:07:10,280the same page, right. Soobviously we've kind of went through all the94901:07:10,320 --> 01:07:14,199different stages of life that you couldpossibly how you can utilize the financial plan.95001:07:14,679 --> 01:07:18,159And now the next step is justreach out really give us a call.95101:07:18,239 --> 01:07:21,239Whenever you have the availability. We'llfind a time on the calendar.95201:07:21,400 --> 01:07:25,920It's going to be absolutely free.The first initial meetings. First time we95301:07:25,960 --> 01:07:28,760come in, we do the financialplan, We send you the report.95401:07:28,800 --> 01:07:31,280After the first meeting, we sendyou the risk tolerance questionnaire. Once you95501:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,719fill that out and we understand yourrisk, then we can start building the95601:07:34,760 --> 01:07:40,360proposal. We have a whole packetthat we give stated all the recommendations that95701:07:40,400 --> 01:07:43,840outlooks, the projections, the illustrations, all in one packet for you to95801:07:43,880 --> 01:07:47,320review, take home, you know, decipher, come up with more questions.95901:07:47,679 --> 01:07:50,679We then answer those questions and ifyou feel comfortable to move forward with96001:07:50,679 --> 01:07:55,840the plan, we implement the strategy. If not, no obligation and there's96101:07:55,840 --> 01:07:59,159still no cost yep. And that'sthe only time that would any cost that96201:07:59,159 --> 01:08:00,679it would come into it if youdecide to move forward and we open them96301:08:00,679 --> 01:08:03,239to count and then we're beginning tomanage your money. And that's how the96401:08:03,239 --> 01:08:06,719relationship keeps going. But there's nopressure to do anything. Yeah, and96501:08:06,760 --> 01:08:11,360I think a lot of people,especially I would tell one more time on96601:08:11,400 --> 01:08:14,719the thirty fourty yearlds. Even thefifty year olds, they want an advisor96701:08:14,719 --> 01:08:17,479who isn't in their sixties or seventies, right, because at the end of96801:08:17,479 --> 01:08:20,279the day, if you're five moreyears, if you've retired in twenty years,96901:08:20,319 --> 01:08:26,479but that means in twenty years youradvisor passes away. Well now you97001:08:26,479 --> 01:08:28,880have to find a new advisor inthe most important time of your life.97101:08:29,000 --> 01:08:30,439Well exactly. And that's why welove what we got going on here is97201:08:30,479 --> 01:08:34,000a team aspect because like my dadwas saying earlier, it's a team.97301:08:34,159 --> 01:08:38,560We grew up playing team sports,We coach team sports. We're all about97401:08:38,560 --> 01:08:42,720team sports because it brails the camaraderieand the relationships rather than being an individual97501:08:42,760 --> 01:08:46,279and selfish. It builds a selflessatmosphere and we all just work together for97601:08:46,319 --> 01:08:49,319one ultimate goal, which is tohelp the client. And the way we97701:08:49,319 --> 01:08:55,479can do that with this and theidea of the experience my dad has with97801:08:55,520 --> 01:08:58,399forty plus years in the business,Dave Surewood has forty plus years in the97901:08:58,439 --> 01:09:00,359business. They are teaching us,taking us under the wing who are in98001:09:00,359 --> 01:09:03,960our twenties, to teach us allthe knowledge that they have so they make98101:09:03,960 --> 01:09:09,000the ultimate decisions obviously with trading,with investing stuff like that, because they98201:09:09,039 --> 01:09:13,920have the more experience. But they'reshowing us the way to build investment portfolios,98301:09:14,319 --> 01:09:16,039work with clients, build a relationship, give us all the knowledge that98401:09:16,039 --> 01:09:20,079they've had for the last forty years. It's a really great atmosphere because we're98501:09:20,119 --> 01:09:25,399gonna be here for another forty years. Right. They're obviously not they're older,98601:09:25,399 --> 01:09:27,600they're in their sixties and seventies,and that's what we're talking about.98701:09:27,600 --> 01:09:30,720But the idea of having them mentorus is what a lot of clients have98801:09:30,720 --> 01:09:33,680actually liked, right, because itmeans that Greenberg Financial is going to be98901:09:33,800 --> 01:09:39,680around for a long time exactly.You know, where we continue to learn.99001:09:40,239 --> 01:09:45,000We're actually going to be taking anentire course on real in depth course99101:09:45,239 --> 01:09:49,239on federal employees. So we're gonnawe're gonna be as close to experts as99201:09:49,239 --> 01:09:54,479we can call ourselves on the becauseif you're a federal employee, you know99301:09:54,560 --> 01:09:58,319that your retirement a lot of complexthen and we know a lot don't get99401:09:58,399 --> 01:10:00,880us wrong, but we want togo that extra step. I want to99501:10:00,880 --> 01:10:03,600continue to learn because there's a lotof intricacies to the Federal Retirement Right,99601:10:04,239 --> 01:10:10,439Fagley FVHB, their long term careoptions, their TSP is probably the most99701:10:10,439 --> 01:10:14,600simple part, but it's the mosttalked about part. Exactly switching subjects.99801:10:14,720 --> 01:10:15,560I bought a house this week,Dyling, you did, I know,99901:10:15,720 --> 01:10:19,800congrats, thank you man finding backto full time, Yeah, I got100001:10:19,800 --> 01:10:23,840guess full time for sure now sellingthe house up in Tempe, and I100101:10:23,880 --> 01:10:26,239wanted to touch on it just alittle bit because of the fact that I100201:10:26,319 --> 01:10:29,319feel like what I went through isprobably what a lot of home built homeowners100301:10:29,399 --> 01:10:31,159up in Phoenix are going through,and a lot of the hot pockets that100401:10:31,439 --> 01:10:35,359we saw in the real real estatebubble that was twenty twenty and twenty one.100501:10:36,319 --> 01:10:40,840Obviously, Phoenix was one of thebiggest Austin, Texas, Florida's cities.100601:10:42,239 --> 01:10:45,199When I tried to rent my house, it's it was on the market100701:10:45,239 --> 01:10:48,640for thirty one days, Dyaling,zero showings, and that's the rent in100801:10:48,720 --> 01:10:51,960Tempe, Tempe, I mean.And it's a beautiful house. Four bad,100901:10:53,239 --> 01:10:57,039two bad that is older. It'sa perfect like college house campus.101001:10:57,159 --> 01:11:02,000It's five minutes from a campus.It's it's completely repainted and everything was done101101:11:02,319 --> 01:11:08,119and I had only six leads inzero showings in thirty one days. Yep.101201:11:08,399 --> 01:11:10,399And then I started, okay,well, I need to analyze what101301:11:10,439 --> 01:11:14,159am I doing wrong. I lookedat the overall map and guess what littered101401:11:14,239 --> 01:11:15,880covered in rentals? So I said, okay, well, the supply and101501:11:15,960 --> 01:11:19,079demands is pretty obvious. There's awhole bunch of supply of rentals, not101601:11:19,199 --> 01:11:23,680only a limited amount, limited numberof demand. But then on the other101701:11:23,720 --> 01:11:27,159side, you have a whole bunchof demand for existing home sales, but101801:11:27,199 --> 01:11:30,479there's no inventory. We've continued tosay this existing home sales was down for101901:11:30,479 --> 01:11:33,920another month below expectations. So alot of people eventually, if they can't102001:11:33,920 --> 01:11:36,920make that long term rental, whatare they gonna do for sale? Just102101:11:38,000 --> 01:11:41,520like I'm doing right now. SoI think keep an eye out for that.102201:11:41,600 --> 01:11:44,520Obviously, we've already talked about Canada'sreal estate problems, We've talked about102301:11:44,560 --> 01:11:47,520China's real estate problems. I'm notsaying there's a bubble forming, but there102401:11:47,600 --> 01:11:50,920is definitely some concerns to keep aneye out. Well, it's with the102501:11:50,920 --> 01:11:55,119airbnb market because of I mean thishappening in Austin, Texas too, there's102601:11:55,119 --> 01:11:59,439still three hundred houses for sale,twelve thousand Airbnb's of for rent. Yeah,102701:11:59,680 --> 01:12:02,159short term. I'm switching a longterm and that's causing a real issue102801:12:02,199 --> 01:12:05,520in the markets. All right,So we're coming up on another break.102901:12:05,600 --> 01:12:11,119We appreciate everyone tuning in. Wegot two more segments segments on this Sunday103001:12:11,199 --> 01:12:13,840morning. Thank you for joining us. We'll be right back. This is103101:12:13,880 --> 01:12:20,399the Money Matter Show, but itwouldn't welcome back. You're listening to the103201:12:20,439 --> 01:12:24,560Money Matter Show. We got twomore segments on this great Sunday morning.103301:12:25,680 --> 01:12:28,560How's it going, Todd, It'sbeen good. You bought that house,103401:12:28,680 --> 01:12:30,000like we talked about last segment.That's pretty cool. Yeah, I mean103501:12:30,000 --> 01:12:34,279not built, it's it's still yourhouse, your house. Those new bills103601:12:34,279 --> 01:12:38,079are fun. Well, you knowwith the new home sales, you know103701:12:38,159 --> 01:12:42,560they be expectations for another month andnew home sales continues to be on an103801:12:42,600 --> 01:12:46,479upward trend, and it's largely becausethose national home builders are giving offers to103901:12:46,520 --> 01:12:49,640buy down raids or go towards closingcosts. They're doing that, and they104001:12:49,680 --> 01:12:55,680also are it's from from the lastcouple of years. They just built so104101:12:55,880 --> 01:12:59,319many new homes that all of asudden couldn't be sold. People either didn't104201:12:59,359 --> 01:13:01,600qualify anymore because of the higher rates, or they just got out because it's104301:13:01,600 --> 01:13:03,680going to be too expensive because ofthe higher rates. So all of a104401:13:03,720 --> 01:13:06,319sudden, they have this huge inventoryand new homes that were built and just104501:13:06,359 --> 01:13:09,680sitting there. So those are gettingsold now too, because that's all that104601:13:09,800 --> 01:13:12,800inventory is. It's hard to finda home that was already had built for104701:13:12,920 --> 01:13:15,279existing homes. No, you're exactlyright, actually, because the home builder104801:13:15,319 --> 01:13:18,640backlogs are shrinking, and it's actuallyone of the major charts I was looking104901:13:18,680 --> 01:13:25,279at this week largely because if you'resomeone trying to buy a home, there's105001:13:25,319 --> 01:13:27,800not a lot of existing options,and if there are, you're gonna get105101:13:27,800 --> 01:13:30,319a high interest rate. Why notgo to the new home sale. You105201:13:30,359 --> 01:13:31,800might pay a little more, butin aggregate, you're going to be paying105301:13:31,800 --> 01:13:35,079a less because you have a lowerrate on your payments. So definitely seeing105401:13:35,079 --> 01:13:40,560that those National home bowers look atthe stocks right dr Horn KB Home,105501:13:40,840 --> 01:13:43,800They've had a great year so farand they continue to do so. The105601:13:43,840 --> 01:13:45,399one thing that pointed out to meis the Atlanta Fed. They have a105701:13:45,439 --> 01:13:53,399GDP now forecast it's really just amodel that they estimate quarterly GDP growth for105801:13:53,520 --> 01:13:58,399quarter three. Right now, they'reprojecting five point nine percent as of August105901:13:58,399 --> 01:14:03,279sixteenth. That is huge GDP numberfor a quarter. That is not what106001:14:03,319 --> 01:14:08,359the FED wants to see. However, then what I saw on Tuesday,106101:14:08,439 --> 01:14:15,359we saw the preliminary PMI reports thatis for manufacturing and services sector in the106201:14:15,479 --> 01:14:18,279US economy, and they were downbig, And I was very surprised to106301:14:18,319 --> 01:14:23,159see that, because when you seeAtlanta FED GDP of five point eight percent106401:14:23,399 --> 01:14:27,279and then a pm I that's lowerexpectation, is showing that the manufacturing services106501:14:27,319 --> 01:14:31,079sector they don't have a lot ofgood expectations for what's to come in the106601:14:31,079 --> 01:14:36,800next couple of months. They feelworse as as a service producer or a106701:14:36,800 --> 01:14:41,159manufacturing producer. So at the endof the day, what's going to end106801:14:41,239 --> 01:14:45,159up holding true is going to bethe thing that really decides what FED what106901:14:45,199 --> 01:14:46,960FED pal is going to say.Obviously he already said wage growth is more107001:14:47,000 --> 01:14:51,279important to him, but if theeconomy is running hot, you really have107101:14:51,319 --> 01:14:55,560to keep raising rates. Yeah,and that's why he said he's not afraid107201:14:55,560 --> 01:14:58,880to keep raising rates. And hedidn't even mention rate cuts. Right,107301:14:59,359 --> 01:15:01,840So obviously this week in the videowas the big news. It was yeah,107401:15:01,880 --> 01:15:04,479I mean, and video is bignews. But we had other ones107501:15:04,520 --> 01:15:09,159and one one thing that kind ofstuck out on Friday was Instacart filed for107601:15:09,199 --> 01:15:14,399their IPO, which is gonna breaka freeze on tech companies doing an initial107701:15:14,439 --> 01:15:16,920public offerings. For the last significantone was December of twenty one, so107801:15:16,960 --> 01:15:20,680that's been almost two years. Wow. And we saw a bunch in twenty107901:15:20,720 --> 01:15:26,039twenty and twenty twenty twenty one wasSnowflake. The last one could have been108001:15:26,199 --> 01:15:28,479Yeah, I think so. Ifit was, yeah, I don't remember108101:15:28,520 --> 01:15:30,039exactly which one, but it wasone of them. It was in twenty108201:15:30,119 --> 01:15:33,239twenty one. But I mean,there was a ton between twenty twenty and108301:15:33,279 --> 01:15:38,520twenty twenty one. All these techcompanies they were going public through spects and108401:15:38,560 --> 01:15:40,640now, and then all of asudden, it was a freeze because all108501:15:40,760 --> 01:15:44,479that spack when he went away,all the first time investors that were so108601:15:44,520 --> 01:15:47,439happy to buy stuff, and it'sjust every IPO that went through would just108701:15:47,640 --> 01:15:51,039double within the first couple of daysand then it would come back to reality.108801:15:51,119 --> 01:15:55,960But now all those companies are reallyat reality and their valuations are back108901:15:55,960 --> 01:15:58,279where they are and those stocks thatwere worth one hundred dollars at one point109001:15:58,359 --> 01:16:01,039or not like seven. Instacarton nameit is, I mean, it holds109101:16:01,079 --> 01:16:04,119up to its name. It's agrocery. It's like doordask for groceries,109201:16:04,159 --> 01:16:09,199and it's been the company since twentytwelve. They've gotten hurt as the economy109301:16:09,279 --> 01:16:13,439slowed down and other competitors have gotinto the business like DoorDash and Uber Eats109401:16:13,439 --> 01:16:17,119and all and Walmart. But they'restill still showing profit for the last five109501:16:17,199 --> 01:16:20,960quarters, so we'll see. Yeah. I mean, obviously we know Walmart109601:16:20,960 --> 01:16:25,640has their own version of that wherethey do kind of a drop off at109701:16:25,640 --> 01:16:29,079the right outside their store, butinstant cart goes all the way to your109801:16:29,079 --> 01:16:30,760home. I mean, I usedoordask for that, you do door to109901:16:30,800 --> 01:16:33,760ask groceries. Yeah, obviously thereare a stock as well, and we110001:16:34,079 --> 01:16:40,800kind of maybe that's a good pictureas of what instat Car's valuation will look110101:16:40,840 --> 01:16:43,520like. Yeah, and DoorDash wasone of those ones that went out of110201:16:43,840 --> 01:16:46,640roughly twenty twenty and it just immediatelydoubled and now it's kind of back to110301:16:46,960 --> 01:16:53,720earth. That's an interesting play rightthere. Chip maker Marvel Technology delivered quarterly110401:16:53,880 --> 01:16:58,720guidance in line with Wall Streets expectations. Obviously, they're on the chip side,110501:16:58,760 --> 01:17:03,119so their strength and artificial intelligence applicationis offset by the continued weakness however110601:17:03,359 --> 01:17:09,279in some of its legacy business likestorage. Obviously, we know the technologies110701:17:09,319 --> 01:17:15,000of ever changing landscape. So kindof what how Intel lost its favor in110801:17:15,039 --> 01:17:17,439the market is not being able tocontinue to find new products, the most110901:17:17,720 --> 01:17:23,880used and updated products, right.I mean I feel like you have you111001:17:23,920 --> 01:17:28,640know, storage as in hardware,and then you have aws and different digital111101:17:28,680 --> 01:17:31,479storages like I Cloud and things likethat. So things always change in the111201:17:31,560 --> 01:17:36,600technology landscape. You got to continueto be you have to continue to evolve.111301:17:36,600 --> 01:17:41,680And that's why Davidea is you know, they have the most evolved product,111401:17:41,880 --> 01:17:45,319Yeah, exactly, and they're stilland they're they're really good at doing111501:17:45,359 --> 01:17:47,760that. Yeah, the most innovativechips coming out and keep coming out.111601:17:47,800 --> 01:17:51,199They're not just happy with where theyare right now. Right. Google is111701:17:51,239 --> 01:17:56,159interesting. They're coming out with aconference next week talking about some of their111801:17:56,199 --> 01:18:00,680AI capabilities that they're bared, whichis their version of chat GBT can do.111901:18:01,079 --> 01:18:05,079Yeah, and also they're just andthey're continuing to expand their storage facilities.112001:18:05,119 --> 01:18:09,039Are spending one point two billion dollarsthis year so far on new storage112101:18:09,039 --> 01:18:13,720facilities. That there of everything,right, they're continuing to expand. Nike112201:18:14,239 --> 01:18:15,680ahead. Now I was gonna say, yeah, Nike has been an interesting112301:18:15,720 --> 01:18:18,199stock. It's down twenty five percentfrom it's fifty two week high of one112401:18:18,239 --> 01:18:21,079hundred and thirty one dollars a share. Yea. And part of the reason112501:18:21,199 --> 01:18:24,680is because, I mean, it'shuge in China, and China's economy is112601:18:24,720 --> 01:18:29,159just slowing down. Its consumer sentimentis down, It's retail sales dropped.112701:18:29,479 --> 01:18:33,239It only grew or slowed to twopoint five percent in July, and I112801:18:33,279 --> 01:18:36,399thought I was gonna be four percent, so it's almost in half. And112901:18:36,479 --> 01:18:42,279the part of this reason is thatChina is also experiencing deflation, which is113001:18:42,319 --> 01:18:45,279good for the consumer but bad forcompanies because now consumers are saying, oh,113101:18:45,279 --> 01:18:50,840okay, the one is it's gettingweaker, so we're just gonna wait113201:18:50,880 --> 01:18:54,000longer. We don't need to buyNike shoes, we don't need to buy113301:18:54,000 --> 01:18:57,640the new sweatshirt. We'll wait untilprices drop even more and just keep waiting113401:18:57,680 --> 01:19:00,920and waiting, and that hurts Nike, right, I Mean, deflation sounds113501:19:00,920 --> 01:19:02,560good for the consumer, but thatmeans the currency that they're getting from the113601:19:02,560 --> 01:19:06,600consumers less valuable, which means theyhave to pay more for their products and113701:19:06,640 --> 01:19:12,720services. So it's not good forthe Chinese companies to have deflation. But113801:19:12,960 --> 01:19:18,760obviously as you continue to have Nikego into the what is it, back113901:19:18,760 --> 01:19:21,239to school season, right, Imean I feel like that is something that114001:19:21,239 --> 01:19:26,359maybe the market's overlooking where. Imean, if I'm buying Nike products anywhere114101:19:26,479 --> 01:19:30,720under eighteen, it's normally going tohappen between July August area, right before114201:19:30,760 --> 01:19:33,319I go to school. Analysts we'resaying, another issue, though, is114301:19:33,359 --> 01:19:38,760their lack of innovation with their products. They've got into complacent with what they114401:19:39,000 --> 01:19:41,680sell, But how innovative can yoube with a product? That's part of114501:19:41,680 --> 01:19:44,239the problem, is what they're saying. Yeah, they just they're running out114601:19:44,239 --> 01:19:47,439of ways right now to be innovative. Yeah, and I you know,114701:19:47,560 --> 01:19:53,319I guess their only way to reallyimprove margins is to keep selling those incredibly114801:19:53,319 --> 01:19:56,880overpriced Jordan's and the shoes that allthose collects. Jordan was the only brand114901:19:56,920 --> 01:20:00,079part of Nike. That helps straightright throughout that co and throughout this downturn.115001:20:00,119 --> 01:20:02,720I mean they had nine or tendays down in a row, but115101:20:02,760 --> 01:20:06,159there Jordan Brand has been showing nosigns of slowing down. Nike is still115201:20:06,159 --> 01:20:11,199a quality name and there is itdoes get to a point where its valuation115301:20:11,399 --> 01:20:15,319is where it should be. Andthat's when you know, you can't continue115401:20:15,319 --> 01:20:16,560to be scared of a big namelike that, because then you look back115501:20:16,560 --> 01:20:19,520and then you know, why whydidn't I get in here? Yeah,115601:20:19,520 --> 01:20:25,319and I feel like it's not somuch Nike as a company in a sense.115701:20:25,359 --> 01:20:28,199It is with innovation and all,but it's more China. Yeah,115801:20:28,319 --> 01:20:30,920it has to do a lot withChina's economy. And that's why Starbucks has115901:20:30,920 --> 01:20:34,680been down to yep, Starbucks continuesto not really come out of its little116001:20:34,720 --> 01:20:39,239And you know, another one thatis about my mind is Disney. It116101:20:39,399 --> 01:20:44,319continues to just kind of trade sideways, trade lower a little bit. And116201:20:44,399 --> 01:20:46,880that's another stock that's gonna have alot of interesting things come about in the116301:20:46,880 --> 01:20:53,600next couple of months because more ESPNsponsorships, partnership, Sorry, it could116401:20:53,640 --> 01:20:58,039be on the way club holding.Amazon is reportedly in talks with the with116501:20:58,079 --> 01:21:01,960Disney about developing an es be instreaming service. According to the information,116601:21:02,640 --> 01:21:08,359Disney currently owns eighty percent of theSports network, so they do. And116701:21:08,399 --> 01:21:10,760what's happening now though, is thatthere's a lot of talk. It hasn't116801:21:10,800 --> 01:21:13,760been confirmed, but there's a lotof talk that Apple will buy ESPN.116901:21:14,399 --> 01:21:16,159I've heard that too, but Iwas looking up articles and stuff, and117001:21:16,159 --> 01:21:19,199there's just hall speculations saying why wouldbe smart for Apple to buy it?117101:21:19,279 --> 01:21:23,840Not that Apple's actually interesting. Okay, yeah, I mean it would make117201:21:23,880 --> 01:21:27,119sense for Apple or Amazon to doit, as they both have Apple TV,117301:21:27,239 --> 01:21:30,239they have Amazon TV. I mean, Disney has their own streaming service117401:21:30,279 --> 01:21:33,319too, but I guess it doesn'twork as well. I mean, ESPN117501:21:33,319 --> 01:21:36,840itself is already a streaming service,so I don't I guess exactly understand what117601:21:36,880 --> 01:21:41,039they mean by developing. They're gonnaanother one, but maybe add it to117701:21:41,079 --> 01:21:44,880another, gonna add No, it'sgonna be ESPN plus from my understanding,117801:21:44,920 --> 01:21:46,800but they're just gonna add to it. It's gonna have more games, more117901:21:47,000 --> 01:21:51,600availability and stuff like that. Andlike they did, you add ESPN gambling.118001:21:53,119 --> 01:21:56,039I forgot the name of it,but they just partnered pen Pen National118101:21:56,319 --> 01:22:00,640Gaming. That is a very interestingthing there where you know, there's there's118201:22:00,680 --> 01:22:05,479these new business I mean, andDisney's attraction business continues to do good.118301:22:06,680 --> 01:22:11,199They are going to save money thisyear because of the strikes, They're not118401:22:11,279 --> 01:22:14,520producing as much, so costs aregoing to go down. There are things118501:22:14,560 --> 01:22:16,600that line up to look good forDisney, but I think you need some118601:22:16,720 --> 01:22:20,800big event to make that rally start. Yeah, and at the end of118701:22:20,800 --> 01:22:25,000the day, ESPN is a bigcash cow with all the sports and everything.118801:22:25,079 --> 01:22:29,199But that's why they're trying to makea streamline with the streaming service because118901:22:29,279 --> 01:22:31,000cable is going away. That's alsopart of the reason. But also if119001:22:31,000 --> 01:22:33,319they did decide to sell it,this would be like the fifth time ESPN119101:22:33,359 --> 01:22:35,920has been sold to another company.If they sold it to, say,119201:22:35,920 --> 01:22:41,880to Apple, they give about fiftybillion dollars, so they could that's might119301:22:41,920 --> 01:22:44,920be ways why on other analysts arelooking at its saying it might be a119401:22:44,920 --> 01:22:47,079smart move. They get a bigcash and Apple has the biggest cash pile.119501:22:47,279 --> 01:22:51,319Another thing that's connected to Disney isApple, I mean Comcast, because119601:22:51,319 --> 01:22:57,319Comcast owns Hulu and Disney's already undercontract to buy the remaining And yeah,119701:22:57,680 --> 01:23:00,720currently Disney on eighty percent, andthey're going to have the next twenty so119801:23:00,720 --> 01:23:02,359they one hundred percent. So that'salso why it makes more sense that Disney's119901:23:02,399 --> 01:23:06,680keeping ESPN and making Hulu and ESPNprobably one thing. Yeah, and I120001:23:06,680 --> 01:23:12,159didn't realize Disney plus how much Comcasthas another businesses other than legacy Cable,120101:23:12,279 --> 01:23:15,840right, I mean they have Exfinity, they have They're gonna sell Hulu,120201:23:15,840 --> 01:23:18,920which is another big generation of cashfor them. They have a lot of120301:23:18,920 --> 01:23:24,199different lines of businesses where Comcast isnot really I think a lot of people120401:23:24,199 --> 01:23:27,000think Comcasts are like, oh,Legacy Cable, that's going away. It's120501:23:27,000 --> 01:23:30,560a smart ceo. But if they'vehad a good they've had a good year120601:23:30,640 --> 01:23:34,840so far. Wrap it back upwith Google obviously, streaming service, YouTube,120701:23:34,920 --> 01:23:39,600TV, NFL ticket that's gonna bereal big. See. I mean120801:23:39,600 --> 01:23:42,479you're not gonna see it on thenext You're probably not gonna maybe on the120901:23:42,520 --> 01:23:45,279next quarter report. Uh yeah,But I mean, really, what's gonna121001:23:45,279 --> 01:23:46,920happen maybe a quarter four really whereyou're gonna it's gonna be the numbers.121101:23:46,920 --> 01:23:51,159But also what's gonna happen is itdoesn't go smoothly. Amazon prid took over121201:23:51,199 --> 01:23:54,800Thursday Night Football last year and there'sissues with it. Yeah, and it121301:23:54,880 --> 01:23:58,199wasn't good for the company because peoplewere pissed off that it was either not121401:23:58,239 --> 01:24:03,800working it was just slow pixelated.So if if YouTube has issues with this,121501:24:04,399 --> 01:24:08,840then that's gonna hurt the company.But that is that's more of a121601:24:08,840 --> 01:24:12,800short term issue, right, It'sgonna be It's it's very crucial to see121701:24:12,800 --> 01:24:16,600how much potential growth could be inthe nfls on a ticket or YouTube TV121801:24:16,960 --> 01:24:19,920that leads to Google's profit. Ofthe biggest number will be how many new121901:24:19,960 --> 01:24:26,039subscribers to YouTube tv are there,because like showing going into which you'll know122001:24:26,199 --> 01:24:29,439it's going to be around that whenNFL starts, and that's it's gonna be122101:24:29,600 --> 01:24:31,239probably gonna be on the fourth quarterreport, which they're going to expect the122201:24:31,279 --> 01:24:33,359big boost because a lot of peopleare gonna buy it. Also with red122301:24:33,439 --> 01:24:36,560Zone. Also with that, we'recoming up to a hard break. So122401:24:36,600 --> 01:24:40,479we will be back for our lastsegment. You listen to the Money Amoutter122501:24:40,479 --> 01:24:43,239Show. I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'mhere with Toddlick and Dean Greenberg, and122601:24:43,520 --> 01:24:51,199we'll be back but it wouldn't welcomeback everybody. We got a last segment122701:24:51,239 --> 01:24:58,720of the Money Matter Show, Yeswe do. Now the two year ten122801:24:58,800 --> 01:25:02,640year inversion, it actually narrowed alittle bit, so we still have an122901:25:02,680 --> 01:25:06,079inversion, which is I mean atthis point in I mean, how long123001:25:06,079 --> 01:25:11,199has this been inverted? I meanit's almost It takes time, you know,123101:25:11,279 --> 01:25:15,119sometimes it's it's sixteen months after,eighteen months later. But the funny123201:25:15,119 --> 01:25:18,279part about that inversion is supposed tobe, you have a recession in five123301:25:18,359 --> 01:25:21,079years from now. If we havea recession next year, everyone's going to123401:25:21,159 --> 01:25:24,279say, you see, that's whenit happened. You know what I mean,123501:25:24,600 --> 01:25:27,079once it starts happening, happened,It just doesn't happen right away.123601:25:27,119 --> 01:25:31,439And that is why we didn't gettotally bullish bullish, But that's why we123701:25:31,439 --> 01:25:35,279didn't get totally barish. The bottomline is, and you guys know it,123801:25:35,399 --> 01:25:40,000I'm looking for something out of thefederalis or to switch policies to the123901:25:40,000 --> 01:25:44,680point that it gives me a signalthat says we're very vulnerable to a crash.124001:25:44,720 --> 01:25:47,159And I haven't gotten that yet.Yeah, and you know, really124101:25:47,239 --> 01:25:53,000since right around April the ten yearyield has continued to increase, which is124201:25:53,520 --> 01:25:57,479kind of where we saw some ofthe peaks in the market. You know,124301:25:57,720 --> 01:26:00,279at the end of the day,when interest rates increase, us to124401:26:00,359 --> 01:26:02,680the ten year, that is whatis used for the calculation of these growth124501:26:02,680 --> 01:26:05,760stocks. The ten year is gettingcloser and closer to the four and a124601:26:05,800 --> 01:26:09,720half five percent level. Yes,it's going to be hard not to put124701:26:09,760 --> 01:26:13,399some money into that the people lookingfor income if it gets to five percent,124801:26:13,760 --> 01:26:15,680because now you're locking it in atfive percent for ten years and not124901:26:15,760 --> 01:26:18,079two years or three years. Imean, at this point, Dean,125001:26:18,159 --> 01:26:23,760the thirty year is only point zeroone lower than the ten year. Yeah,125101:26:23,800 --> 01:26:28,119I mean I'm getting four points.I wouldn't go thirty years, I125201:26:29,359 --> 01:26:32,800get it now. Insuance companies arethe way the pricing stuff that is,125301:26:33,720 --> 01:26:39,640but not us. We are seeingthis bear steepening in the curve right now.125401:26:40,760 --> 01:26:45,000We're seeing the longer come up andthen the shorter term kind of just125501:26:45,039 --> 01:26:48,239stay where it's at because obviously theFed controls the short end, the market125601:26:48,279 --> 01:26:53,000controls the long end. But thenon Friday we saw all the short end125701:26:53,079 --> 01:26:57,239increase the long end do the reverse. So we may maybe we see the125801:26:57,279 --> 01:27:00,319peaks. Who knows the way?I don't. We don't really trade bond.125901:27:00,359 --> 01:27:01,600What we do is we look forthe income to put in to fit126001:27:01,640 --> 01:27:09,079into our allocations of what is thenecessary needs for the clients. What beautiful126101:27:09,119 --> 01:27:14,880now is short term money money marketingget over five percent? Two year paper126201:27:14,920 --> 01:27:16,520you can get five percent, Yougo out a little bit. The only126301:27:16,520 --> 01:27:19,199reason you go out a little bitis for what reason? Is to be126401:27:19,239 --> 01:27:23,359able to lock that money up alittle longer at a price that we think126501:27:23,439 --> 01:27:28,319is a good income right now.Now, if everything goes bad, history126601:27:28,359 --> 01:27:31,119repeats itself. You did not livethrough the period of time when money markets126701:27:31,119 --> 01:27:34,720were twenty percent. Now I'm notsaying that's where we're going, all right,126801:27:35,159 --> 01:27:41,960but a fifteen year government thirty yearbond was so hard to sell because126901:27:42,000 --> 01:27:46,520short term paper was paying twenty percent. Think about that. Iniscibles triple a127001:27:46,600 --> 01:27:55,439weighted innscibles tax free for fifteen years. We're paying your like ten percent twelve127101:27:55,439 --> 01:27:59,880percent? Is that crazy? Youthink you can't get back to double ditch.127201:28:00,359 --> 01:28:03,439I never say never on anything.Yeah, that's why you mitigate risk,127301:28:03,760 --> 01:28:06,720That's why you allocate. That's whywhen you have certain things, because127401:28:06,920 --> 01:28:13,880we deal with individuals. We're notdealing with insurance companies and institutions that always127501:28:13,880 --> 01:28:17,279have new money coming in constantly fromthe business they do well. The most127601:28:17,279 --> 01:28:19,880money is in the bond market,right, I mean, all the money's127701:28:19,880 --> 01:28:23,119in the bond market. So weuse the bond market kind of give us127801:28:23,159 --> 01:28:26,800a picture of what the stock marketcould look like going down the road.127901:28:27,159 --> 01:28:30,520So obviously, take advantage of thesehigh interest rate environments. We've talked about128001:28:30,560 --> 01:28:34,359the MEGA multiple times on this show. You can lock in right now five128101:28:34,359 --> 01:28:39,039point three percent for five years,compound and guaranteed. Right take your arm.128201:28:40,079 --> 01:28:43,960Remember government bonds still you don't haveto pay state tax, right Okay.128301:28:44,239 --> 01:28:46,760So the only reason I bring thatup is you compare them the CDs.128401:28:47,039 --> 01:28:50,239You know on everyone's mind, CDCdcds, But the CDs you're still128501:28:50,239 --> 01:28:55,399paying taxes. So if you productto product the US government bond, it's128601:28:55,439 --> 01:28:59,960not only safer, but it alsogives you the opportunity to not pay taxes128701:29:00,880 --> 01:29:05,600on the state. I totally agree. Obviously, this week, the equal128801:29:05,640 --> 01:29:11,319weighted was a little below the SMPfive hundred. It was down point two128901:29:11,359 --> 01:29:14,239percent on the week. The SMPwas up point eight percent on the week129001:29:14,760 --> 01:29:18,319showing that the big names led theway this week doing yeah, and I129101:29:18,319 --> 01:29:21,960mean the big names have been leadingthe way really, but it was a129201:29:23,000 --> 01:29:25,760little more even which it has beenthe last few weeks. I mean last129301:29:25,800 --> 01:29:29,239week two weeks ago, the SMPfive hundred was about in line with RSP,129401:29:29,399 --> 01:29:31,800which is the equal weighted So Imean the big one I think was129501:29:31,800 --> 01:29:38,479in video. Microsoft had a prettygood week too, So the Magnificent sevens129601:29:38,479 --> 01:29:42,800still tend to be leading the chargeregardless of which way very much. So.129701:29:44,079 --> 01:29:48,279Obviously, as we continue to gointo September, the seasonality is going129801:29:48,319 --> 01:29:51,039to start to play a role.It is, but I want to we129901:29:51,159 --> 01:29:56,680talked about mitigating whisk and the reasonwe want to mitigate risk is when we're130001:29:56,680 --> 01:30:00,840looking at the fact of valuations.And we started getting concerned last year with130101:30:00,920 --> 01:30:06,359valuations. Okay, PE price earningsrace shows what do you think we are130201:30:06,399 --> 01:30:12,800at right now? A price earningsray show we're about sixty's twenty five right130301:30:12,840 --> 01:30:16,319now? Okay, it's about twentyfive times right On the average, an130401:30:16,439 --> 01:30:25,239average price earnings ratio is sixteen whenit gets I've seen it at twelve to130501:30:25,279 --> 01:30:29,800fourteen, okay, but sixteen seventeenthat area. You know, it's kind130601:30:29,800 --> 01:30:32,319of value pretty well. For usto get there right now, we got130701:30:32,319 --> 01:30:35,680to come down to just under threethousand on the SMP. That's a big130801:30:35,760 --> 01:30:40,159drop. That's all the thirty somemoont percent, And that is why I130901:30:40,319 --> 01:30:45,439constantly keep patients until something changes.Right now doesn't mean it has to come131001:30:45,439 --> 01:30:48,279down there. Earnings can grow,that's the other way. So if earnings131101:30:48,319 --> 01:30:53,640grow, the price earnings ratio willcome down also. But in this market131201:30:53,960 --> 01:30:57,720with high interest rates and everything goingon, I don't see that happening.131301:30:58,199 --> 01:31:00,399If I see that changing, I'llget bullish. But in the meantime,131401:31:00,439 --> 01:31:05,439mitigating risk doesn't mean you go tocash. Mitigating risk doesn't mean you don't131501:31:06,000 --> 01:31:11,680mitigating risks. I'll still allows youto participate if the markets go up at131601:31:11,680 --> 01:31:15,239a lower rate, but it alsoprotects you if the markets fall down.131701:31:15,279 --> 01:31:16,760And that's allocation too. Yeah,when we learned the last couple of years,131801:31:16,760 --> 01:31:19,359that's a big thing that we dodifferently than a lot of money managers.131901:31:19,359 --> 01:31:23,640We don't just sit there and tellyou to wait it out because it'll132001:31:23,640 --> 01:31:26,720come back. We try and dowhat we can to actively mitigate as we132101:31:26,760 --> 01:31:30,199can. You know, and bydoing that we can do inverse funds and132201:31:30,239 --> 01:31:34,560different things like that. Sell calls, sell calls, inverse funds, and132301:31:34,880 --> 01:31:40,039was talking about that like a Navidiapart of my position. Okay, they132401:31:40,079 --> 01:31:43,840had a Navidio my position. Ihad a bunch of Navidia. I sold132501:31:44,119 --> 01:31:48,159calls the day that they were reportingearnings. Then when they came out,132601:31:48,199 --> 01:31:50,319I oh, man, I wishI didn't write those calls, right,132701:31:50,680 --> 01:31:55,159Not the fault desition, just partof the position. I got thirty five132801:31:55,199 --> 01:31:59,279dollars when the stock was at fivesixty for Septembers that was one month out.132901:31:59,640 --> 01:32:02,119That means five ten if when overfive ten, I couldn't get it133001:32:02,439 --> 01:32:10,199now sitting here after the markets wentdown, I'm happy that I sold those133101:32:10,279 --> 01:32:14,319calls. It mitigated part of myrisk. Did I still give back about133201:32:14,439 --> 01:32:16,279the money, Yeah, But didI mitigate risk? Yes? That means133301:32:16,319 --> 01:32:19,680that money I made is my profit, right. I mean, you're not133401:32:19,680 --> 01:32:23,239going to be perfect, and ifyou're trying to be perfect, you're probably133501:32:23,279 --> 01:32:26,840gonna make more mistakes than anyone else. One person that can be perfect that133601:32:27,039 --> 01:32:29,920g O D. Yeah. Ifyou're trying to be perfect, that means133701:32:29,960 --> 01:32:31,239you're market timing and you're trying tofind the top, you're trying to find133801:32:31,279 --> 01:32:34,159the bottom, and that just doesn'twork. Yeah, it never does.133901:32:34,199 --> 01:32:39,239So that's why you need to havea plan, right, it is based134001:32:39,279 --> 01:32:42,359on your risk tolerance. How importantis it to reassess your risk tolerance?134101:32:42,399 --> 01:32:45,520Right here? Dean all the time, all the time. But the thing134201:32:45,600 --> 01:32:51,159that I fear is people reassess theirrisk tolerance is whether the markets sound higher.134301:32:51,159 --> 01:32:54,720They agreed in the fear factor,and that has nothing to do with134401:32:54,800 --> 01:32:59,640risk toleance. Tolerance needs to bewhen you're when you're neutral, and if134501:32:59,680 --> 01:33:01,439you're gon spend money when you needthe money out of your portfolio. The134601:33:01,479 --> 01:33:05,079liquidity, it's all about liquidity andhow you look at laws. Yeah,134701:33:05,079 --> 01:33:09,560but this year you run into iswhen is somebody neutral about their finances.134801:33:10,119 --> 01:33:13,840That's why sometimes other questions like okay, how fast do you drive on the134901:33:13,840 --> 01:33:15,279freeway? If the speed limit sixtyfive? Are you going seventy? Well135001:33:15,279 --> 01:33:18,640maybe you're a little more risky individual. Do you like skydiving? Yeah?135101:33:18,680 --> 01:33:21,239Give them real life situations. It'sokay, we're been at my risk.135201:33:21,359 --> 01:33:25,520But the risk is you go overlike say it's seventy and you go seventy135301:33:25,640 --> 01:33:28,840six. Will they get me atseventy six? Right? Like, you're135401:33:28,840 --> 01:33:31,520like eight your mind. Okay,you'd be a little more aggressive than a135501:33:31,560 --> 01:33:34,359balanced portfolio, but not so much. Right, you're going a hundred up135601:33:34,359 --> 01:33:38,119the phoenix. You're trying to getas fast as possible. You're probably gonna135701:33:38,119 --> 01:33:41,560have a risk all its ninety plus. Yeah, growth, but if you135801:33:41,640 --> 01:33:44,159got a ticket, then you fearit. You're never going seventy six.135901:33:44,199 --> 01:33:46,000So guess when you got to mitigateit? Right? Exactly? So you136001:33:46,079 --> 01:33:53,000mitigate risk by going seventy three sixover? Isn't that the rule? I136101:33:53,039 --> 01:33:55,560say, I've heard this from acop before. They said seven, you're136201:33:55,600 --> 01:33:59,199fine. Eight your mind. Interesting. I don't want to play the game,136301:33:59,279 --> 01:34:01,199but yeah, i'd normally try togo five. Well, there's not136401:34:01,279 --> 01:34:05,439a lot of information economic news comingout next week. We had it this136501:34:05,600 --> 01:34:11,319past week. So the markets canyou know, with a light volume people136601:34:11,359 --> 01:34:15,880on vacation going and going into laborday, markets can creep up. But136701:34:15,960 --> 01:34:18,159be careful, don't get sucked intothis thing. It can go back to136801:34:18,279 --> 01:34:24,800that forty five forty five fifty leveland then we come into September. Be136901:34:24,920 --> 01:34:28,800careful what you're doing all right,allocate. But you know what, if137001:34:28,800 --> 01:34:32,159you haven't had a financial plan,I mean a real financial plan that takes137101:34:32,159 --> 01:34:35,239some time, you gotta put sometime and effort into it. Give us137201:34:35,239 --> 01:34:38,680a call. I mean, we'llsit down, we'll go over the plan.137301:34:38,760 --> 01:34:41,760It's a three step process. Youknow. You gotta get you gather137401:34:41,840 --> 01:34:44,159your information, you gotta give itto the information. We gotta put it137501:34:44,199 --> 01:34:45,000in. You gotta sit with it. We've got to talk about it,137601:34:45,159 --> 01:34:49,079and then we come up with aplan for you, and then you execute137701:34:49,119 --> 01:34:51,560the plan. Whether you do itthrough us or through somebody else, that's137801:34:51,640 --> 01:34:55,199up to you. Obviously we wantyou to do it through us, but137901:34:55,319 --> 01:34:58,520that's you know, it's up toyou if you think it's a good plan.138001:34:59,279 --> 01:35:00,279If you don't think it's a goodplan, and go to someplace else.138101:35:00,880 --> 01:35:04,359But if it's a good plan,unless you're doing it yourself. I138201:35:04,399 --> 01:35:08,359hate when somebody goes someplace else andsaid, all, yeah, I like138301:35:08,439 --> 01:35:11,880that plan, I'll do that foryou. Yeah, but we will give138401:35:11,880 --> 01:35:15,000you the plan. We're not We'renot like bait and switch. We're not138501:35:15,119 --> 01:35:16,680like, okay, yeah we toldyou we did the plan for you.138601:35:16,800 --> 01:35:19,239We said that was free. Wewent over it. We'll let you see138701:35:19,239 --> 01:35:21,640it. But unless you do business, we're not giving it to you.138801:35:21,720 --> 01:35:25,640Nope, we'll give it to youwhether you do business or not. Right138901:35:26,239 --> 01:35:29,279there's always a time to buy,there's a time to sell. Sometimes it's139001:35:29,319 --> 01:35:31,000just a time to go fishing andbe patient, which is maybe where we're139101:35:31,039 --> 01:35:34,279at right now. And while yougo fishing, build that financial plan if139201:35:34,359 --> 01:35:38,359you if you're fifty fifty right now, it's a very good balance and if139301:35:38,359 --> 01:35:41,039you have a headge on, youmight be forty when the things too high.139401:35:41,159 --> 01:35:44,039You've got some income coming in,You've got some stuff. Don't expect139501:35:44,039 --> 01:35:45,920the world coming down because we don'thave a huge market increase. We had139601:35:45,960 --> 01:35:51,079that already this year. But protectyourself from the other side. And you139701:35:51,119 --> 01:35:56,840know what, we got Memorial MemorialLabor Day coming up. We got a139801:35:56,840 --> 01:36:00,560week. Hopefully we'll keep moving inthe right way. Should If not,139901:36:00,960 --> 01:36:02,600it can happen on the other sidetoo. Liquidity can force you the other140001:36:02,640 --> 01:36:04,399way. I'm not gonna be itfor the next two weeks, Steen,140101:36:04,520 --> 01:36:09,079So you're gonna hold on the showwithout me. I think I can handle140201:36:09,079 --> 01:36:14,680it all right. Everybody be happy. It's extremely important for everyone to be140301:36:14,760 --> 01:36:17,319healthy, say it's all. Andat the end of the day we all140401:36:17,359 --> 01:36:26,960tried to be profitable scene. Butit wouldn't be believe if you believed in140501:36:27,159 --> 01:36:35,840me. Yes, it's all inCampusky hanging over land tree, but it140601:36:35,920 --> 01:36:39,479wouldn't be believe if you