Analyzing the Recent Downturn and Strategies for Financial Planning

100:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,919Good morning everybody. It's that timeonce again. It's Sunday morning, eight200:00:04,919 --> 00:00:10,039o'clock. It's two hours of theMoney Matters Show coming to you from being300:00:10,080 --> 00:00:15,199Greenberg and the crew from Greenberg FinancialGroup. We will talk about what's going400:00:15,240 --> 00:00:19,199on in the country. We'll talkabout what's going on economically, We'll talk500:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,039about the Fed. We're going totalk about interest rates. We're gonna talk600:00:22,079 --> 00:00:30,600about things that are affecting your portfolio. It's been a tough month. We700:00:30,679 --> 00:00:33,920did expect it, though, andwe've been mitigating risking. We told you800:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,560that mitigating risk doesn't mean you don'tlose. It means that you don't lose900:00:37,560 --> 00:00:44,079as much, and that is thewhole thing behind trying to manage portfolios.1000:00:45,399 --> 00:00:49,920So we had another week of downmoves of two percent to more right across1100:00:49,960 --> 00:00:55,280the board in the Dow, SMP, NAZDAC and even the SP five hundred1200:00:55,359 --> 00:00:59,960equal waiting was down just the samething, pretty much as the SMP five1300:01:00,119 --> 00:01:03,760hundred for the month of the nazacksdown seven and a half. You got1400:01:03,799 --> 00:01:10,239the SP five hundred down almost fiveto down down three and which means,1500:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,959uh, you know, the Dow'sonly up four percent for the year SAP1600:01:14,120 --> 00:01:19,319is up thirteen and the nazacks uptwenty seven. This is when the risk1700:01:19,439 --> 00:01:23,239tolerance comes in. This is whenyou kind of figure out, Okay,1800:01:23,239 --> 00:01:26,319where am I sitting when I'm doing. The one thing I'm gonna tell you1900:01:26,719 --> 00:01:30,480is you can never catch the topand you're not gonna catch the bottom.2000:01:30,519 --> 00:01:33,280And as this MARKA was rallying,we kept telling you there's you know,2100:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,719there's risk here, and we didn'tlike the evaluations. And I don't know2200:01:37,879 --> 00:01:41,400if we're gonna bounce here or keepgoing lower. I know this is not2300:01:41,519 --> 00:01:49,159a lot of good support unless wecome a little bit lower. You remember,2400:01:49,159 --> 00:01:52,359we broke out of that thirty ninefour thirty nine hundred on the SDP2500:01:52,519 --> 00:01:57,040four thousand, and we ran allthe way up to almost I don't know,2600:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,400almost forty six hundred, not toolong ago, and that we're back2700:02:00,439 --> 00:02:06,799down to forty three hundred level.So we've lost almost three hundred points,2800:02:06,879 --> 00:02:10,000not two hundred and sixty points itselffrom the highs, which gives us the2900:02:10,120 --> 00:02:16,759opportunity to look for a tradeable situation. But if you're a long term investor,3000:02:17,039 --> 00:02:21,039you're not you know, I wouldn'tbe stepping in yet it was still3100:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,120in August. Then we got September, and then we got part of our3200:02:23,199 --> 00:02:29,400Noba. These three months were alwaysthe months of the seasonality that bothered me.3300:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,159It's just seems for some reason,when we have market declients and it's3400:02:32,199 --> 00:02:36,479not all the time, it's duein these three months, and usually we3500:02:36,599 --> 00:02:40,759start in August, continue in September, bottom mount in October. Now is3600:02:40,800 --> 00:02:46,360this going to be different? Idon't know. I know this. Valuations3700:02:46,400 --> 00:02:51,479are still high, interest rates aregonna go higher, and we need to3800:02:51,520 --> 00:02:57,039be cautious if valuations get to thepoint I'm starting to get excited about it,3900:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,000which means we have to come downa lot more from where we are,4000:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,520maybe about six eight hundred more SMPpoints, which, if you think4100:03:04,520 --> 00:03:09,439about it, that's what almost twentypercent. That gives us the opportunity to4200:03:09,520 --> 00:03:15,080then be much more bullish going forward. I am very concerned with the banks.4300:03:16,199 --> 00:03:20,560I've been concerned with the banks,and I'm gonna tell you why after4400:03:20,599 --> 00:03:23,960I give you a disclaimer. TheMorning Amounted Show is brought to you by4500:03:24,000 --> 00:03:30,080Greenberg Financial Group. Greenberg Financial Groupis both a registered investment advisory and a4600:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,840broke a dealer. We'll registered withthe SEC, members of Finery, members4700:03:32,840 --> 00:03:37,879of SIPPIC. On this show,we talk about different products and different strategies,4800:03:38,159 --> 00:03:43,599and we all have different ideas.Please understand what your risk tolerance is4900:03:43,599 --> 00:03:47,280and what the risk of the investmentis. I can't over emphasize that enough5000:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,919because when the markets go down,you don't want to get scared. When5100:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,960the markets go up, you don'twant to get greedy. Fear and greed5200:03:55,039 --> 00:04:00,599is what drives the markets. Italways hasn't always will. What we have5300:04:00,639 --> 00:04:06,159to do is be careful that wedon't mix up our fear and greed on5400:04:06,199 --> 00:04:11,960the way we want to invest.And it's so easy to do. It's5500:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,680so easy to saying it's gonna gohigher and higher. It's so easy to5600:04:15,680 --> 00:04:16,839say, I can't buy because it'sgoing to go lower and lower. I5700:04:16,879 --> 00:04:23,680gotta sell everything. The one strategyI can promise you you won't make money.5800:04:23,720 --> 00:04:28,160I can guarantee you won't make money. Buy high, sell low.5900:04:28,959 --> 00:04:32,600Never worked, never will work.You gotta buy low, sell high,6000:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,519and you're never gonna buy at thebottom of You're never gonna sell at the6100:04:35,560 --> 00:04:43,319top. And you have to doallocations. You gotta do different industries,6200:04:43,399 --> 00:04:49,480different companies different indexes, and youneed to know how to mitigate risk.6300:04:50,480 --> 00:04:55,240Now there'll be a time that we'llsay, don't worry about it, just6400:04:55,319 --> 00:04:59,000keep banting as the markets pull back. And if you remember from two thousand6500:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,839nine or so to almost twenty seventeeneighteen, we didn't even have a three6600:05:01,920 --> 00:05:06,519percent pullback. This is the firstbig pullback we've had in a while.6700:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,519But we've had such a run upin the first half. You know,6800:05:10,560 --> 00:05:14,920it just doesn't continue to going allthose semings, those technology stocks have to6900:05:14,959 --> 00:05:18,399take take a break. Five ofthose Magnificent seven as we call them,7000:05:19,279 --> 00:05:25,000down more than ten percent. Nowpeople don't want to buy them. But7100:05:25,040 --> 00:05:29,120if you took some money off thetop as they were going higher, I'd7200:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,759probably wait a little bit longer.But somewhere between now in the middle of7300:05:31,759 --> 00:05:36,720October, I would be looking tostart dollar cost savaging back into them if7400:05:36,720 --> 00:05:43,079they if they fall. You know, people laughed at us. What you7500:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,879know, I kind of said.One of the down and out stocks that7600:05:45,959 --> 00:05:50,040got beat up that probably pop itsometime was Target. Target last week went7700:05:51,120 --> 00:05:57,480a lot up almost seven eight points, even though they didn't have the best7800:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,360journeys. Didn't do things like that, and of course we all know why7900:06:00,399 --> 00:06:06,839they got themselves in trouble. Butgood companies figure out ways to change people's8000:06:06,879 --> 00:06:12,319minds. Forget and you move onif it's the products that you need.8100:06:14,839 --> 00:06:20,199So we're in a position right nowthat I think that we're not done going8200:06:20,240 --> 00:06:27,040down. And I've told you thisfor a while, and I would be8300:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,079very cautious through the next few months. But if you're a trader, there8400:06:30,279 --> 00:06:36,040will be tradeable bounces here and that'swhat we'll look for. For some people.8500:06:36,360 --> 00:06:41,439Others we're gonna stay with cash,maybe take a little bit more money8600:06:41,439 --> 00:06:45,480off the table, but we're gonnalook for opportunities and stocks that we think8700:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,639are coming down the prices we like, and we'll stop positioning ourselves again.8800:06:51,319 --> 00:06:56,199If we happen to get into somethingand then a pop ten percent pretty quickly,8900:06:56,240 --> 00:07:00,319we might take that off the table. I'm not convinced this at the9000:07:00,360 --> 00:07:06,120time to jump in with both feet, but it's not the time that you9100:07:06,199 --> 00:07:11,839just sell heavything you go to casheither. You know people, Oh you9200:07:11,839 --> 00:07:18,560can do it. Market timing.Market timing does not work on portfolios that9300:07:18,600 --> 00:07:24,480you're trying to build wealth over time. You're trying to market time for trading,9400:07:24,519 --> 00:07:28,279that's different and actually that whole thing. You know, you kind of9500:07:28,319 --> 00:07:30,959have an idea which where the market'sgoing, but if you're trading, I9600:07:30,000 --> 00:07:35,360mean you're in and out in daysor day or hours or minutes, it's9700:07:35,399 --> 00:07:41,959different. So when I talk aboutthe trend, we've broken down resist from9800:07:42,240 --> 00:07:46,800support levels that we're resistant levels.We're breaking down those resistant levels that we're9900:07:46,800 --> 00:07:53,959turning into support levels to bring uslower. Technicals work sometimes in this type10000:07:53,959 --> 00:07:56,839of markets because you try to find, Okay, where's a good place to10100:07:56,879 --> 00:08:03,439get in. As we moved throughthis, we'll look for those opportunities.10200:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,399So if you really think about it, we came up from thirty nine one10300:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,120hundred to four thousand. There wasthat was a resistance area there for a10400:08:09,120 --> 00:08:13,800while, and we broke up andwe went pretty nicely, almost fifteen percent10500:08:13,879 --> 00:08:20,879higher. So how far will itcome back down? Who knows. Maybe10600:08:20,879 --> 00:08:24,079we come back down to forty twohundred level, maybe get a bounce off10700:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,759there, and then we work ourselvesinto maybe coming back down into the high10800:08:28,800 --> 00:08:33,960three thousands again, thirty seven hundred, thirty five hundred, and they think10900:08:33,960 --> 00:08:37,480at that time it would be apretty good place to look to buy back11000:08:37,519 --> 00:08:46,799in So what makes us go downlike that? I see some red flags11100:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,000out there, and it all hasto do with liquidity and the banks.11200:08:52,919 --> 00:08:58,200It started in obviously in the earlyspring when we start having some bank failures.11300:08:58,440 --> 00:09:03,600We got paid asked that. Butnow you know, no one's really11400:09:03,600 --> 00:09:09,480paying attention to it. But theraiding the rating agencies are starting to downgrade11500:09:11,159 --> 00:09:16,639our debt, which you know alreadythat started to move down a little bit11600:09:16,639 --> 00:09:22,320in the markets. Then they're nottalking about down grading, downgrading a bunch11700:09:22,320 --> 00:09:28,480of banks and probably a lot ofthe big regional banks because they're looking at11800:09:28,559 --> 00:09:33,240the fact of where interest rates aregoing, with the fact that we still11900:09:33,240 --> 00:09:39,440have inflation. And I know polinflations come down. Yes, it has12000:09:39,480 --> 00:09:46,000come down, because that's what happenswhen you stop spending money. But the12100:09:46,080 --> 00:09:52,799biggest inflation we have right now isa housing because people are locked in it12200:09:52,879 --> 00:09:56,679interest rates three and a half percentdown to two and a half percent,12300:09:56,639 --> 00:10:01,240they're not going to go ahead andsell the house, so there's no inventory.12400:10:01,799 --> 00:10:03,879Why somebody want to come out ofa three to three and a half12500:10:03,919 --> 00:10:09,360percent mortgage to get a seven anda half percent mortgage. Then you have12600:10:09,440 --> 00:10:15,480those that are scrambling to buy houseswith very little inventory, that they're driving12700:10:15,559 --> 00:10:20,320up sea weighted homes hundreds of thousandsof dollars of where they were a couple12800:10:20,320 --> 00:10:26,480of years ago, with the ideathat they could afford the mortgage and go12900:10:26,519 --> 00:10:33,960ahead and fix it up over timeand do those things. Most people in13000:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,679their real estate business the other best. Oh, it's not gonna stop.13100:10:37,279 --> 00:10:43,000It's gonna keep going. I'm gonnatell you it's gonna stop because eventually,13200:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,720like in two sudden, people aren'tgonna be able to afford it. You13300:10:46,840 --> 00:10:52,240afford the mortgage, it's not thehome. The reason the homes went up13400:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,519so far before because the mortgage werelower, they're able to buy it.13500:10:54,559 --> 00:10:58,639Now, it's the scarcity. Well, people aren't going to leave their homes13600:10:58,720 --> 00:11:05,799right now go buy another home.They're not building a lot. So on13700:11:05,879 --> 00:11:09,720the short one, you're gonna seeprices probably elevate a little bit. But13800:11:09,799 --> 00:11:13,039when the interest rates get to sevenand a half or eight percent for mortgages,13900:11:15,200 --> 00:11:20,919you're gonna just see what I callnecessity buying. But we're not doing14000:11:22,039 --> 00:11:28,480anything to stop inflation. Our governmentis doing nothing. Biden is doing nothing14100:11:30,000 --> 00:11:35,519to stop inflation. It's just naturallycoming down because the Federal Reserve is making14200:11:35,559 --> 00:11:43,440it too expensive to live. Theywant to take credit for everything. It14300:11:43,080 --> 00:11:52,279blows my mind that Democrats can standup there and talk about all the achievements14400:11:52,240 --> 00:11:58,840the Biden has done and not eventalk about where inflation went. They blame14500:12:00,320 --> 00:12:07,360on Trump. Listen, I getit. We had a pandemic. We14600:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,320gave out tons of money. Wehad to do that to keep our economy14700:12:11,399 --> 00:12:16,759going. But this administration had tosay, hey, we can't keep giving14800:12:16,759 --> 00:12:20,039out all this money. We haveto stop because if we do, the14900:12:20,120 --> 00:12:24,039inflation is not going to get undercontrol. And we're going to go ahead.15000:12:24,120 --> 00:12:28,320Oh, by the way, we'regonna stop and regulate all the oil15100:12:28,600 --> 00:12:35,960so it's harder to drill. Butalso instead of us drilling and getting oil15200:12:37,440 --> 00:12:41,120and giving it to our allies inEurope while there's a war going on right15300:12:41,159 --> 00:12:50,320across their countries just east of them, what do we do We let them15400:12:50,320 --> 00:12:56,879go get oil from Russia. Whyaren't we the one benefiting from it?15500:12:56,000 --> 00:13:01,240We have the biggest supply. Whyare we so concerned about this ev stuff15600:13:01,240 --> 00:13:05,639that you know, all these plantsthat control that, that go ahead and15700:13:05,759 --> 00:13:13,679make electricity a fossil fuel driven.We also know that all these batteries for15800:13:13,799 --> 00:13:18,600ev for mining is even worse.So we're going to be beholden to other15900:13:18,639 --> 00:13:26,720countries for our electric system. Wehave to start thinking rationally with more common16000:13:26,799 --> 00:13:31,080sense, which means a little allocationhere, a little allocation there. Clean16100:13:31,200 --> 00:13:35,679up the stuff. That's fine,But stop putting the fear in everyone that16200:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,480our climate change is killing everybody andit's going to destroy the world. And16300:13:39,559 --> 00:13:48,840do this. The world changes changesover time, thousands of years, millions16400:13:48,840 --> 00:13:56,480of years different. The only thingthat's going to destroy the world right now16500:13:58,159 --> 00:14:05,039would be a nuclear war. Andyou all, all these guys people are16600:14:05,080 --> 00:14:09,240so afraid of Trump with his redbuttons, playing with it at night and16700:14:09,320 --> 00:14:13,720pressing it. God, that's theway the media made it sound. Now16800:14:13,720 --> 00:14:18,039we have to worry about China.We gotta worry about Russia, we gotta16900:14:18,039 --> 00:14:22,879worry about North Korea, we gottaworry about India. In two and a17000:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,440half years, Biden has dumb worstthings and brought us to the brink of17100:14:26,519 --> 00:14:35,240more military problems than any time Trumpwas in office. But they keep talking17200:14:35,279 --> 00:14:45,559about his great achievements. What theinflation reduction in Reduction Act had nothing to17300:14:45,559 --> 00:14:50,200do with reducing for inflation and everythingto do with climate and bringing hips back17400:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,840here. I like that idea.I'm gonna give him credit on that one.17500:14:52,879 --> 00:14:58,840I like the fact that we arebringing our technology that can hurt go17600:15:00,240 --> 00:15:05,440that other countries can use against us, back to America, bring back others.17700:15:05,799 --> 00:15:11,159Don't stop here our healthcare essentials.They're not back here yet. Have17800:15:11,200 --> 00:15:16,159you seen that. I haven't.There's so much stuff that we can do17900:15:16,759 --> 00:15:20,120and help our economy grow and grow, and then we can help others.18000:15:24,080 --> 00:15:28,600Forget all the stuff that's going onbetween the all the stuff that the showing18100:15:28,679 --> 00:15:33,799that Biden has done wrong. Theygo get them. Stop being okay,18200:15:33,840 --> 00:15:35,759we're gonna get Trump up. We'renot gonna get get them both and they18300:15:35,759 --> 00:15:39,480have both done something wrong proven andget them out and get some people in18400:15:39,519 --> 00:15:43,799there that we need to go aheadand do it. But but they keep18500:15:43,840 --> 00:15:52,480going after Trump on Trump up ideas, indictments that make no sense. But18600:15:52,559 --> 00:15:54,879yet they get away with it becausethe media keep pushing it and pushing it.18700:15:56,440 --> 00:16:02,039That will destroy us. I messyou that. But what's great to18800:16:02,080 --> 00:16:07,799see is that the people in Americaare starting to say you know what,18900:16:07,000 --> 00:16:12,000I'm not afraid to say what Iwant to say. I'm not afraid to19000:16:12,039 --> 00:16:17,279say I don't like the woke left. I'm not afraid to say that we19100:16:17,679 --> 00:16:19,519don't like the way things are going. I'm not afraid to do these things19200:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,799and start using my voice because beforethey used to hide, they used to19300:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,120hides there. I can't vote forTrump, and even though they did,19400:16:30,919 --> 00:16:37,360it's crazy and people are getting madand mad and madder as we go through19500:16:37,399 --> 00:16:45,600this process. I supposedly due process. It's due process on one side and19600:16:45,639 --> 00:16:49,360not in the other. It's andthey cannot see it. I'd be okay19700:16:49,399 --> 00:16:53,480if at least someone said, yes, Biden is just as bad as Trump,19800:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,360we need to get rid of bothof them. Okay, at least19900:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,559go with that you don't like Trump, or at least go ahead and look20000:17:00,559 --> 00:17:07,440at your own guy. This isgonna hurt everything we're doing because we become20100:17:07,519 --> 00:17:11,400polarized in Washington, which means theRepublicans will only do what they think is20200:17:11,480 --> 00:17:17,839right. The other guy's that,and there's no compromise. Compromise is the20300:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,920only way we're gonna move forward.You're gonna have people talking all day long20400:17:21,960 --> 00:17:29,839about compromise. But until we getthat compromise, it's not there. We20500:17:30,000 --> 00:17:37,119need to go ahead and understand.When it comes to our energy, we20600:17:37,240 --> 00:17:41,680gotta upgrade our grids. We haveto upgrade the way we're doing things.20700:17:42,039 --> 00:17:49,119We can't just say everybody's got tohave electric costs. It doesn't work.20800:17:52,440 --> 00:17:57,480You see forward losing billions and billionsof dollars and a bunch of them all.20900:18:00,079 --> 00:18:03,880How does that help, because thenyou start getting people not working.21000:18:06,559 --> 00:18:11,880It doesn't work. We don't hearanything about the border anymore until, of21100:18:11,920 --> 00:18:18,640course there's too many people into sanctuarycities. Then they want aid and help21200:18:18,640 --> 00:18:25,720and everything else. It's not likethey stopped coming across the border. It's21300:18:25,720 --> 00:18:30,200just the media isn't talking about it, so people think it ain't happening.21400:18:33,079 --> 00:18:37,039All the things that are going wrongwill continue to go wrong. They don't21500:18:37,079 --> 00:18:47,079allow the smart people to discuss socialsecurity and medicare. They use it as21600:18:47,640 --> 00:18:52,519a fear tactic against the other party. If you bring it up in a21700:18:52,599 --> 00:18:55,880sensible, common sense way, asif they're going to take it away from21800:18:55,920 --> 00:19:00,880people that already have it. Nobody'sgonna take that away. But if we21900:19:00,000 --> 00:19:04,720do not get a handle on SocialSecurity. It's gonna go hurt more people.22000:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,200And those people are going to beyour grandchildren, because how are they22100:19:08,240 --> 00:19:14,079going to go ahead and do anythingbut get taxed more in their Social Security22200:19:14,160 --> 00:19:19,680checks in order to pay We areall now paying more into Medicare, all22300:19:19,720 --> 00:19:26,960the way up social Security as asit's all ways, you're not getting that22400:19:27,039 --> 00:19:32,799much more than they got a tentwenty years ago. But look how much22500:19:32,839 --> 00:19:37,400more money we're putting into the systemjust so it doesn't collapse under himself.22600:19:37,400 --> 00:19:41,480You're paying yourself. It is thebiggest joke. If you are working,22700:19:41,880 --> 00:19:48,720right, if you're working and you'reat fully time and age, you get22800:19:48,720 --> 00:19:53,039soci Security, you get taxed onSocial Security and your w two way a22900:19:53,119 --> 00:19:59,880paycheck is being taxed for Social Securityand Medicare. You're a Medicare, you're23000:20:00,039 --> 00:20:03,599paying for Medicare, and then you'repaying at Medicare out of your check.23100:20:03,759 --> 00:20:10,440That's a joke. Why once youreach Medicare after paying for sixty five whatever23200:20:10,480 --> 00:20:14,480it is until the age sixty five, why at that time, just because23300:20:14,519 --> 00:20:19,079you're working and want to go aheadand and work and be employed, whether23400:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,400you want to or you have to, why are you getting charge of medicare.23500:20:27,440 --> 00:20:33,319Why it's just like people that areelderly, right, they all we've23600:20:33,359 --> 00:20:37,039all paid for stool taxes even thoughour kids don't even go to school there23700:20:37,039 --> 00:20:41,240anymore. I get it part ofthe community, but that's you know,23800:20:42,039 --> 00:20:47,519there's places that then don't you geta certain age you're not paying us that23900:20:47,640 --> 00:20:52,279the property taxes or they're reduced.They brought it up a bunch of times24000:20:52,279 --> 00:21:00,319in Arizona. You got a lotof retirees here. We are such a24100:21:00,799 --> 00:21:06,279country that pays for everybody else,and that's fine, but don't tell me24200:21:06,359 --> 00:21:11,200people don't pay their fair share whenthey're making more money because you're paying.24300:21:11,559 --> 00:21:15,920It's amazing with the care and SocialSecurity. How you have to pay for24400:21:15,000 --> 00:21:19,160Social Security, get tax on SocialSecurity, and get taxed out of your24500:21:19,160 --> 00:21:23,960paycheck for Social Security. So ifyou think about it, really at the24600:21:25,039 --> 00:21:30,440end of the day, how muchyou're really making. But nobody ever thinks24700:21:30,480 --> 00:21:41,079about that because they don't realize that, especially to medicare. And then Medicare24800:21:41,119 --> 00:21:48,599isn't totally free for everybody. He'sgotta pay here there you get deductibles.24900:21:52,119 --> 00:21:57,160Fix the whole system. Why areour drugs so much more expensive than around25000:21:57,160 --> 00:22:03,680the world. At least Trump wastrying to do something about it. It's25100:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,640not right. I gotta have adifferent system. We gotta come up with25200:22:07,680 --> 00:22:14,480a different immigration system. Things areantiquated, but nobody gets along, so25300:22:14,599 --> 00:22:17,599nobody wants to go ahead and doit. Do what needs to be done.25400:22:18,440 --> 00:22:26,599We came and vote without feeling likethere's something wrong. You fix it.25500:22:26,559 --> 00:22:30,279You want to mail in ballot,you get one. Otherwise, show25600:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,680up on one or two or threedifferent dates that you're allowed to go vote.25700:22:34,759 --> 00:22:42,119It's that simple. All the thingsthey talk about that make it not25800:22:44,079 --> 00:22:51,480that that might lead to votes,that really on votes or whatever. Eliminate25900:22:51,559 --> 00:22:57,680that eliminated in everybody's mind. Idon't know why we make it so difficult26000:23:00,079 --> 00:23:03,039to do, because what happens isthis is all going back, and I26100:23:03,079 --> 00:23:07,279don't want to house the cards inour economy. Our economy is doing well.26200:23:07,319 --> 00:23:11,759We do not need to bring itto its knees. We don't need26300:23:11,799 --> 00:23:17,960to keep raising interest rates. Weneed to do some things on the supply26400:23:18,119 --> 00:23:23,359side to keep inflation down. Thereason inflations come down is the supply is26500:23:23,400 --> 00:23:30,640caught up with the demand. It'sthat simple. When we went through the26600:23:30,720 --> 00:23:37,640whole thing with the the COVID andall right, it's because we couldn't get26700:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,480stuff here. Nobody was making it, so the supply side went down.26800:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,839Is the demand increasing and wages wentout. Well, now the inflation has26900:23:45,880 --> 00:23:51,519gone down a little bit because suppliesare there. We'll figure out a way27000:23:51,559 --> 00:23:55,640we need more supplies, get thesupplies out there so the demand is less27100:23:55,680 --> 00:24:00,680and prices will come down. Wejust got to go ahead and have our27200:24:02,720 --> 00:24:10,000Congress step up and start making somechange in the rules to help to benefit,27300:24:10,680 --> 00:24:15,119to do things that are just thatare proactive, to bring inflation down,27400:24:15,759 --> 00:24:18,839keep the jobs of going. Weneed to go ahead and find others27500:24:18,920 --> 00:24:23,200that want to work and stop givingaway free money. We'll be back with27600:24:23,279 --> 00:24:26,720the whole house today. Thanks forlistening. This is the Money Matter Show.27700:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,799Welcome back everybody. This is theMoney Matter Show. We have everyone27800:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,599today. This is Dean Greenberg.We got Dave Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg,27900:24:40,839 --> 00:24:45,799and we have Todd Glick. Wewill be talking to a guest today later28000:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,400about SOLA and the good part ofSolo, and we'll ask a lot of28100:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,880questions of why it's worth even doingor not doing. So hopefully I'll have28200:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,119all the answers that come on thesecond part of a show, So stay28300:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,119tuned for the second half. Andif you don't get it, where can28400:25:00,160 --> 00:25:04,160we go? We can go topodcast Money Matters with Dean Greenberg. Yeah,28500:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,599you got to look up with DeanGreenberg because there's a bunch of Money28600:25:07,599 --> 00:25:11,759Matters out there and it's on anypodcast streaming service. Yep. Like it's28700:25:11,799 --> 00:25:17,319like somebody stole Dean's title there MoneyMatters, right, I know he's out28800:25:17,319 --> 00:25:21,000it for thirty years? Where haveyou been? I wasn't alive for the28900:25:21,039 --> 00:25:22,759first three? Is this? It'sjust like it's just like the greatest time29000:25:22,759 --> 00:25:26,680of the year ever. The temperaturesare back into the nineties, we got29100:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,960the Little League World Series going on, we got high school football. Is29200:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,200absolutely not the best time. Thetalk yesterday. No, no, that's29300:25:33,319 --> 00:25:38,799yesterday, Dave, Real League WorldSeries that excites you that No, No,29400:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,880it's just watch It's just wonderful,simpler time back to us. And29500:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,880then when FIFA was on, hewas giving me crap for watching police.29600:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,839You mentioned high school football? Highschool football next next weekend? Right,29700:25:53,559 --> 00:25:59,119college football? It's always the bigheadline this week Friday Night was is a29800:25:59,279 --> 00:26:03,319is a game. Yeah, yeah, it's coming Friday, right this previous29900:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,440Friday. Oh, last Friday.We're next Friday, next Friday. You30000:26:06,440 --> 00:26:07,640know the two guys that work hereall day and then go to practice at30100:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,359night and student athletes are going somewherein life. You know, you're coaching30200:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,559Tusi High School. Yeah, we'regoing next week. It was our first30300:26:15,559 --> 00:26:18,599game and that's exciting stuff. Ithink the big headline is week with that30400:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,240was the Trump's fourth indictment. Imean, is this getting so stupid and30500:26:22,319 --> 00:26:26,920silly and just I think the leftis just embarrassing themselves. If you look30600:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,480at these indictments, read into them, they're just a joke. They're they're30700:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,799almost they would be hilarious if itwasn't so sad. You try to listen30800:26:33,839 --> 00:26:37,839to like a non biased station withthe attorneys on it, those are the30900:26:37,839 --> 00:26:40,960ones that you know, I kindof listened to the most, and they31000:26:41,079 --> 00:26:45,279all say, and there's nothing herewith these indictments. Nothing. It's unbelievable,31100:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,680and it's like they are stretching todo this to just get him out31200:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,920of the race. Totally poltical,totally political. They're not going to get31300:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,039him out of the race every timethey indict him to get stronger. Well,31400:26:55,319 --> 00:26:59,200here's the thing. You and Iboth know how long lawsuits take,31500:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,039oh and how they drag out.How are they ever gonna when? When's31600:27:03,039 --> 00:27:07,440they when's the election? Yeah?I am about a un two months from31700:27:07,480 --> 00:27:11,640now. Yeah, Okay, they'renot allowed to do anything for what three31800:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,039or four months before the election becausethey don't want to disturb it. I31900:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,559e that we know because we didn'tknow about Biden's son's laptop. Oh,32000:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,039let's don't let that out and infectthe election. So the bottom line is32100:27:23,079 --> 00:27:29,359if they don't go ahead and ableto put a trial together and convict him32200:27:29,519 --> 00:27:33,000by next March, it can't happen. Yeah, I don't see it happening.32300:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,400Well, let the San Francisco Chronicle, which is not exactly a right32400:27:36,400 --> 00:27:40,960wing newspaper right said they'll never convicthim of anything. So this is all32500:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,880just political. There's a good placeto live. Yeah, I used to32600:27:44,920 --> 00:27:49,160love. I used to love goingthere. It's like it's like Beirut.32700:27:49,839 --> 00:27:56,079Okay, they they they're not bombing, but they're destroying everything. These mob32800:27:56,160 --> 00:28:00,319flashings, just going in and stealingwhatever they want and living on the streets32900:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,759crapping all over. The issue iswhen it's backwards. You got a store33000:28:03,759 --> 00:28:07,039owner trying to protect it was aclerk in a gas stasition is trying to33100:28:07,039 --> 00:28:11,839protect the store from these robbers.And now he's getting in trouble because he33200:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,440went after room with a baseball backbecause they brought their store three times in33300:28:14,440 --> 00:28:15,799a week because they don't get introuble. So then he had enough of33400:28:15,839 --> 00:28:19,640it, started hitting with a baseballbat and now he's under charges. Yeah,33500:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,599and no one's doing the investigation fight. How much money do you lose33600:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,119every time they do? Because everyonethinks the insurance is that we all know33700:28:26,160 --> 00:28:30,119we have deductibles. And if you'rein a place like that and you're being33800:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,200they might have taken his insurance awaytoo. You'll get sick and tired of33900:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,680it. You're coming after my livelihoodof my family, and you think you34000:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,039can keep coming in here somehow.That's all right, though it's completely backwards,34100:28:41,039 --> 00:28:45,279completely backwards, no different than themarine saving people on the subway in34200:28:45,279 --> 00:28:48,400New York. I haven't heard muchmore about that with that is that's a34300:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,359pretty that's pretty San Francisco, Ithink is probably the perfect example of what34400:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,160where you don't want to go right. Yeah, pretty much. But we're34500:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,079experiencing that into sound, not theflash mobs and things. But I was34600:28:59,119 --> 00:29:02,000talking to a guy that's hard withthe end of the day about my agent,34700:29:02,599 --> 00:29:04,799about his shoplifting and things, remembera few things. There was something34800:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,160I knew it was under lock andkey, and I told that's kind of34900:29:07,359 --> 00:29:10,960interesting having that under lock and key. And he goes out. He said,35000:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,160when I first started here twenty oneyears ago, he said, if35100:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,240we had twenty thirty items stolen ina year, it was a big deal.35200:29:18,440 --> 00:29:19,640He said, Now it's thousands everymonth. Yeah, And I mean35300:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,880they've different companies have different policies foryears. I remember, like ten years35400:29:22,920 --> 00:29:27,039ago, Albertson's had the policy whereyou can't run after somebody because Safe Away,35500:29:27,079 --> 00:29:30,160the parent company, had one oftheir employers get shot when they try35600:29:30,200 --> 00:29:36,039to run after a robber. Yeah, and then you also lock under lockdown35700:29:36,039 --> 00:29:37,799things depending on what's going on.Like three years ago, they locked down35800:29:37,799 --> 00:29:41,920the tide pods because kids were eatingthem, so they had to lock him35900:29:41,920 --> 00:29:42,920down. I remember that. Yeah, it was weird, but yeah,36000:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,440they had to lock him down andcouldn't open them. Hey, We've all36100:29:45,519 --> 00:29:48,000done things when we were kids,right, Sure. I remember when I36200:29:48,039 --> 00:29:52,640shoplifted when I was eight years old. Okay, took some candy. I36300:29:52,680 --> 00:29:59,079was out of baseball game, rightapparance when happy, we had to go36400:29:59,119 --> 00:30:00,720back. We had a little judge. We had to pay for it.36500:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,039It all starts with that. Howhow did these kids grow up, these36600:30:04,119 --> 00:30:07,440people grow up saying, Oh,it's okay to steal from people. Yeah,36700:30:07,799 --> 00:30:11,160it pisses me off. Yeah,it's all be honest with It's awful.36800:30:11,559 --> 00:30:15,079Back to the market day. Wecame into August with five consecutive months36900:30:15,079 --> 00:30:18,880of gains. Dean, and youand I both thought it was We all37000:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,200thought it was getting a little pricey, a little frothy. Now we've had37100:30:22,240 --> 00:30:26,680a three weeks slide for the SMPfive hundred to four weeks slide for the37200:30:26,759 --> 00:30:30,480Nastack. First time this year.The Nastack's been down four weeks in a37300:30:30,559 --> 00:30:34,839row. I see a bounce.Well, last week Nasdak wasn't down,37400:30:36,119 --> 00:30:37,559Yeah, four weeks in a row. According to the NBC, it was37500:30:37,599 --> 00:30:41,200down very slightly. Yeah, yeah, I think it's point two or something.37600:30:41,279 --> 00:30:45,960Yeah, I see I see abounce coming. Tradeable bounce. I'm37700:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,440not wanting, not of an investablebounce, because especially with September and October37800:30:48,480 --> 00:30:53,559there and and then, if youhaven't loosened up or raised some cash,37900:30:55,319 --> 00:30:59,440use that opportunity to do it.Right. We've been cautious, I said,38000:31:00,079 --> 00:31:02,519cautious. Oh that's the last week. We've been too cautious over the38100:31:02,559 --> 00:31:07,920last ninety days. But we hadour core in belt. We've got about38200:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,799ten percent of our assets in ina money market fund band GUARD money market38300:31:11,799 --> 00:31:14,119fund, which is spanned five that'snot the worst thing that ever happened.38400:31:14,519 --> 00:31:17,640It's five and a quarter right downit is. So that's treasury, short38500:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,279term treasure, term treasuries. We'vegot probably thirty percent of the firm's assets38600:31:21,279 --> 00:31:26,680and short term treasuries or or arated corporate bonds. We've got ten percent38700:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,759of the firm's assets in an inversefund betting to the downside. So you38800:31:30,799 --> 00:31:33,759know, don't need to use theword betting. We're mitigating risk to the38900:31:33,799 --> 00:31:37,400downside. Okay, that's good point. Ok good point. Yeah, No,39000:31:37,519 --> 00:31:38,640that's true because we're not we're notgoing to put you on a plan39100:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,000and bring you to Vegas. Andwhen you bet, you usually live.39200:31:41,079 --> 00:31:45,759Yeah, and the perfect scenario isif the inverse fund loses money, that's39300:31:45,799 --> 00:31:48,880a good thing. That's our insurancepolicy. So you're right, it's not39400:31:48,920 --> 00:31:53,839a bets insurance. So we havebeen cautious with that. Said, we've39500:31:53,880 --> 00:32:01,160we've probably participated in sixty percent ofthe market's rally. We've participated in about39600:32:01,519 --> 00:32:07,319forty percent of this decline, Sothat's the other side of that coin now39700:32:08,039 --> 00:32:13,359five percent off of the high forthe year, which is a start or39800:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,559ten percent off of the all timehigh on the SMP five hundred. We39900:32:16,640 --> 00:32:21,039continue, Dean, you've mentioned inyour monalog red flags, there's red flags40000:32:21,079 --> 00:32:24,839everywhere. And then yet in themiddle of that, you see retail sales40100:32:24,920 --> 00:32:30,000up seven tenths of a percent inJuly, which was much better than expected.40200:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,799And then Fitch comes out and onTuesday and warns that they're gonna they're40300:32:32,839 --> 00:32:37,000probably gonna have to downgrade more ofthe banks at this time, the major40400:32:37,039 --> 00:32:42,759banks, And that's a red flagthat there's something going on that they're looking40500:32:42,799 --> 00:32:46,000at that we don't know about.But people, since they don't really understand40600:32:46,039 --> 00:32:50,359any of that, they just goto work and stop buying. But the40700:32:50,440 --> 00:32:54,240problem is is they also get scaredwhen it turns institutions it's all about their40800:32:54,279 --> 00:32:58,319allocate. They just buy and thenthey have it. They always have more40900:32:58,319 --> 00:33:01,200money coming in. Sure, itdoesn't affect them. It affects individuals,41000:33:01,240 --> 00:33:07,640retail people. That's a heart ofsubset, subset to invest for because they41100:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,799don't always unless it's a Form oneK plan, they don't always have more41200:33:10,839 --> 00:33:15,359money coming in. In fact,most of it is going out, you41300:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,039know, to pay for things amonthly, to turn their to turn their41400:33:19,559 --> 00:33:23,119tirement into a pension. Because peopledon't get pensions anymore. They take money41500:33:23,119 --> 00:33:28,359from their ioa sure and and youknow it's difficult. That's why when people41600:33:28,440 --> 00:33:32,599need a know that in five yearsor three years or ten years or immediately,41700:33:34,039 --> 00:33:36,440they need a guaranteed income for therest of the life, that's when41800:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,880we start looking at at annuities,you know, because they will give them41900:33:39,920 --> 00:33:45,559that same income for the rest ofthe life. A couple of housekeeping things42000:33:45,599 --> 00:33:49,440from last week we talked about shortsselling. Adan, I think you had42100:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,279step away when we're doing that segmentabout short selling. We were unclear as42200:33:52,319 --> 00:33:57,440to what the interest rate charges were, if any, and we did a42300:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,920little research on that, and yes, you definitely do have to pay not42400:34:00,079 --> 00:34:05,000only dividends if you're short the stock, but you have to pay interest if42500:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,480you're if you're short the stock,and most firm short death. The reason42600:34:07,519 --> 00:34:13,800I've never paid interest is because shortingis so aggressive and so risky that I42700:34:13,840 --> 00:34:15,800often do it on a day debut, I do it. I probably short42800:34:15,840 --> 00:34:20,639well. Sure you don't need toshort stocks anymore. You have the indexes42900:34:20,679 --> 00:34:23,119that are inverse. You could,but it would it wouldn't it have been43000:34:23,199 --> 00:34:28,000nice to to to short of stockthat's that you think has fallen apart or43100:34:28,079 --> 00:34:31,079has a bad pattern or is actingwell. I mean, I think today's43200:34:31,079 --> 00:34:35,599will you you're short against the boxof what you do? Uh, you43300:34:35,599 --> 00:34:37,840know, if you have a longposition, you don't want to come out,43400:34:37,199 --> 00:34:44,000you go short because the the abilityto go ahead and and to to43500:34:44,079 --> 00:34:47,079go to offset going down. Butyou can buy put options, you can43600:34:47,119 --> 00:34:51,559go ahead and buy inverses on thewhole thing. You can sell calls.43700:34:51,599 --> 00:34:53,599There's a lot of other ways todo it other than just go short out43800:34:53,639 --> 00:34:57,599and then and you're talking about speculationby doing that, Oh, absolutely,43900:34:57,679 --> 00:35:00,400no, no, absolutely, Andwe talked about that the high that's a44000:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,400very very high risk trate. Theother thing we wanted to touch on was44100:35:02,440 --> 00:35:07,679batteries. We talked a little bitabout solid state versus the lithium ion batteries,44200:35:07,960 --> 00:35:12,719and our thought was what kind ofthings would be in the solid state44300:35:13,000 --> 00:35:17,320and Todd this is a surprise ofboth. It actually has more lithium really44400:35:17,440 --> 00:35:22,519than the lithium ion battery. Wow, it does have a it does have44500:35:22,559 --> 00:35:28,880a shorter charging time due to superiorcharge discharge performance, and they're much faster44600:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,360to build. But they're very,very expensive, way more expensive than lyssium44700:35:31,360 --> 00:35:36,440ion batteries. So Toyota's came upwith that solid state battery and I'm thinking44800:35:36,519 --> 00:35:39,400myself, well, you want onehundred thousand dollars, Toyota right probably has44900:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,280to put a Lexus tag on that. If you're gonna make an other thousand45000:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,880dollars, Toyota, that can't betheir priest. Give me, give me45100:35:45,920 --> 00:35:50,679my guess, run engine and I'llbe happy. Yeah the guy. We'll45200:35:50,719 --> 00:35:52,800be right back. We have anothersegment before the top of the HOWA we45300:35:52,880 --> 00:35:58,960appreciate you listening to the money Mattyshows say, it's all a name.45400:36:02,840 --> 00:36:06,679Welcome back, everybody. This isDan Greenberg. This is the Money Matter45500:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,880Show. We got Dave, Dylanand Todd and we have a guest coming45600:36:08,960 --> 00:36:13,760up at the top of the hour. We're gonna be talking about solo solo45700:36:13,920 --> 00:36:19,280energy, solar power, the good, the bad, why you can help45800:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,119you save money, and how itdoesn't save you money. How about Hawaii45900:36:22,199 --> 00:36:28,400Electric? How did we miss thatone? You talk about shorting? Shorting46000:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,719industries could do that shorty in Hawaiian? You know who? But I mean,46100:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,159who would even think of that?I don't know why. I didn't46200:36:35,159 --> 00:36:37,920cross my mind what you're saying theydid. They knew that. They started46300:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,239to fire it after they showed itto stock. When you look at when46400:36:40,280 --> 00:36:44,360you look at something like that,where there's an act of God, that46500:36:44,559 --> 00:36:46,719where there's great fires that were thefirst thing that should come to your mind46600:36:46,800 --> 00:36:52,960is Northern California gotta be the utility. Blame the utility, right, Hawaii46700:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,760Electric? Two or three days,it's out there just doing nothing. Over46800:36:55,800 --> 00:37:00,480the weekend, Wall Street Journal andThe New York Times suggested might have been46900:37:00,519 --> 00:37:05,360caused by the power line, Andwe saw what happened with Pacific Gas and47000:37:05,360 --> 00:37:09,079Electric. It went from seventy bucksto four dollars after the fires in California.47100:37:09,239 --> 00:37:14,639Five years later, Pacific Gas andElectric still has not reinstated their dividend.47200:37:15,360 --> 00:37:16,519And you can argue it was anact of guy, but that didn't47300:37:16,519 --> 00:37:21,239save electric Pacific Electric, Power andGas. Right, and now Hawaii Electrics47400:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,239down seventy Wire Electric was forty bucksa share a deal in a week ago47500:37:24,440 --> 00:37:29,480and on Friday, Thursday it hitten bucks. Yeah, from forty to47600:37:29,599 --> 00:37:31,159ten. Did they have a gooddividend before? Have they proven that it's47700:37:31,199 --> 00:37:35,519Hawaiian Electric? No? Right,no, But but you know it doesn't47800:37:35,519 --> 00:37:38,960help. It doesn't matter. Right, They're pretty sure that that power lines47900:37:39,079 --> 00:37:43,440caused it that were knocked down,but they were knocked down by hurricane force48000:37:43,519 --> 00:37:47,119wins. Does that matter? Apparentlynot. Apparently, it doesn't matter.48100:37:47,239 --> 00:37:52,119You gotta find it out with theWalst Journals said that they're in the firms48200:37:52,199 --> 00:37:57,199in talks with companies who specialize inrestructuring. You look at that thing and48300:37:57,239 --> 00:38:00,400you say, it's really an enticingprice. It went from forty to ten,48400:38:00,719 --> 00:38:06,519right, It did bounce fifteen percenton Friday. But remember Pacific Gational48500:38:06,519 --> 00:38:10,000Electric didn't pot them until a yearafter the fires because of the litigation and48600:38:10,119 --> 00:38:14,360just kept piling on, piling on, piling on. So you have to48700:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,079ask yourself with Hawaii Electric, Okay, I went from forty to ten.48800:38:17,119 --> 00:38:22,400Now it's bounced back to thirteen.What's the catalyst? What's the catalyst that's48900:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,679gonna make that stock returned to normalanytime if they prove that it had nothing49000:38:25,719 --> 00:38:30,920to do with them. But howdo you do so remember we talked about49100:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,320all the time. If the stockcraters like that for whatever reason, it's49200:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,280not time to get into it rightaway because it could still go down under49300:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,000ten. It could still have anotherdrop. I mean, if there's anything49400:38:39,000 --> 00:38:42,880that comes out that proves that HawaiianElectric had anything to do with it,49500:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,960it's gonna go drop more. AndI think you grab if you can grab49600:38:45,960 --> 00:38:46,920a dollar or two. If you'rea trader, you want to grab a49700:38:46,960 --> 00:38:51,400dollar or two here. But they'regonna have to prove negligence, yep.49800:38:52,039 --> 00:38:55,719And that means that they weren't takingcare like the one up in northern California.49900:38:57,039 --> 00:39:00,159Right there was negligence. They weren'ttaking out the brush. They went50000:39:00,199 --> 00:39:02,800doing those things, but that wasmultiply because they didn't let them. You50100:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,239know what, I'm saying, oh, yeah, but you know why that50200:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,719if they can't prove negligence, Ithink they'll get away because from the hurricane50300:39:10,239 --> 00:39:15,280that came by, isn't it wasn'tthat what happened? Yeah, yeah,50400:39:15,320 --> 00:39:16,920I don't know. I was talkingto somebody that was on Oahu Island as50500:39:16,960 --> 00:39:21,239she's saying that, however, whateverwas set up, the way it was50600:39:21,280 --> 00:39:22,800set up in Maui was not right, and that's why there's something like this50700:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,679happened. So I think they're lookingat ways like as to why it happened.50800:39:25,719 --> 00:39:30,199But I didn't understand why it wasthe silencing go off. Yeah,50900:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,440they didn't want here's what the governmentsaid. They didn't want to scare people.51000:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,920Really, he don't want to scarepeople. So you just think that51100:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,880was an emergencies probably just scare peopleand let them know that's going on.51200:39:40,000 --> 00:39:44,039What's the weirdest part is ad youlistening to some of these and Toddy,51300:39:44,079 --> 00:39:46,159you and I were talking about thisabout the people had to run into the51400:39:46,199 --> 00:39:50,239ocean and they couldn't even they didn'thow to swim. Then you live in51500:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,159Hawaii and you don't how to swim. That's kind of interesting. That's scary51600:39:53,199 --> 00:39:57,559times. I would learn how toswim if the fire was chasing me.51700:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,199But then you heard it wasn't there. It wasn't about Chanel though I heard51800:40:00,239 --> 00:40:05,039that that that might have been thething that people would talk about lava coming51900:40:05,039 --> 00:40:08,239down. No, there was nolava coming No, there's fires volcano that52000:40:08,360 --> 00:40:12,920was like when not dormant anymore.They started rough thing, but it wasn't52100:40:12,960 --> 00:40:17,639bad. It was just like islandthat's on the big island that's they don't52200:40:17,639 --> 00:40:22,760have active volcanoes on Maui Uh Tesla. Tesla had a rough week, down52300:40:22,800 --> 00:40:30,280eleven percent. They announced the thirdprice cut Dean this year. In China,52400:40:30,840 --> 00:40:35,920they're they're battling with x Pang andNeil. X paying is their biggest52500:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,400competition. Neo is a more highend, more of a lucid type of52600:40:38,440 --> 00:40:44,800thing. But the x Pang ithas a suv similar to Tesla's that is52700:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,960cheaper and has longer range. Solet me ask you this question. Would52800:40:46,960 --> 00:40:51,880you rather have your cause sitting onthe lot because you don't want to make52900:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,440less, or you rather be gettingthem off your lot out of production into53000:40:55,480 --> 00:41:00,960people's hands because you charge less,into people's hands because the inventory that they're53100:41:00,960 --> 00:41:05,440producing is outpacing the amount of deliveries, so you're inventories is going to continue53200:41:05,440 --> 00:41:09,719to increase supply and demand. Justwhat we said before, Tesla is increasing53300:41:09,760 --> 00:41:14,960supply. Demand's going down, soprices come down. If our government would53400:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,360just understand and run the damn thingis a damn business, they would get53500:41:17,360 --> 00:41:22,400it. Get more supply, thatget it more than the demand. Prices53600:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,360come down than we even it outeconomy, and China continues to struggle.53700:41:25,440 --> 00:41:31,039The Country Garden Did you hear aboutthis? Country Garden is China's largest private53800:41:31,239 --> 00:41:36,920real estate developer. They suspended tradingon all of their bonds last Monday.53900:41:37,159 --> 00:41:44,159Wow, and they will not reportunemployment for the for young young adults.54000:41:44,320 --> 00:41:49,280They're gonna stop doing that. Theystop, They stopped. They stopped it54100:41:49,320 --> 00:41:52,039completely, because you know how badit really is. Then if they're stopping54200:41:52,039 --> 00:41:54,239it, well to that point.Financial Times came out with an article last54300:41:54,280 --> 00:42:00,239week and quoted a brokerage analyst thatsays multiple brokerge analysts and researchers are at54400:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,519leading universities as well as state runthink tanks said that they have been instructed54500:42:04,519 --> 00:42:08,559by regulators, their employers, andeven domestic media outlets to avoid speaking negatively54600:42:08,599 --> 00:42:14,039about topics ranging from fears of capitalflight to softening prices, so they're not54700:42:14,079 --> 00:42:19,360allowed to say anything bad right nowanyone in China. China lowered interest rate54800:42:19,440 --> 00:42:23,719on their one year loans for thesecond time since June, and this last54900:42:24,119 --> 00:42:30,840last week was the largest declined sincetwenty twenty. The PBOC, the People55000:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,480Bank of China, meet on Mondaymorning for an interest rate policy decision.55100:42:34,599 --> 00:42:37,920Most likely will be another decreased cutfor them to try to stimulate the economy.55200:42:38,159 --> 00:42:43,559Right and here, the ten yeartreasury hits of sixteen year high YEP55300:42:43,679 --> 00:42:47,280and the inversion continues to narrow.It does narrow still point seven, which55400:42:47,320 --> 00:42:52,880is down from one percent todd whichis what it was. It'll be interesting55500:42:52,880 --> 00:42:58,480to see, is is it possiblethat that will correct itself to a normal55600:42:58,639 --> 00:43:04,000yield curve the state over definitely herewithout without any kind of a black swan55700:43:04,039 --> 00:43:07,599event. It's certainly possible. Imean, at this point, if you've55800:43:07,599 --> 00:43:10,880been invested in TLT over the lastnine years, you have a negative return,55900:43:12,519 --> 00:43:15,719so it makes sense, it makessense. It's a tough tough time56000:43:15,800 --> 00:43:20,559for that, but eventually these rateswill have to drop right, no question.56100:43:20,719 --> 00:43:22,440It's just like we used to say, Okay, rates are going up,56200:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,360rates will go up, the rateswill go up. Don't go long56300:43:25,480 --> 00:43:29,360term, don't go long term,don't go midterm, go short term.56400:43:29,880 --> 00:43:34,000We were early right, and thenrates turned I'm telling you right now,56500:43:34,119 --> 00:43:37,639over the next few years, rateswill come back down again and TLT will56600:43:37,719 --> 00:43:43,639rally again. Oh yeah. Thelong term treasuries were down over thirty percent56700:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,559last year and we didn't participate inany of that because we were in short56800:43:46,639 --> 00:43:51,880term. Yeah. TLT is atwenty year of treasury bondy tfah over three56900:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,360and a half percent or three pointfour yeah, depending where you get it.57000:43:54,519 --> 00:43:58,280Before we leave China, though,on Friday, we saw reports out57100:43:58,280 --> 00:44:02,119of Evergrand, which is China's largejust property developer, and they continue to57200:44:02,239 --> 00:44:07,199experience issues. They filed for protectionin the US. I'm not sure exactly57300:44:07,239 --> 00:44:12,239what protection they were looking for,whether it was bankruptcy or what other protection57400:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,599they would be filing for, butthey have not been paying their bills,57500:44:15,880 --> 00:44:19,599essentially their debts, their liabilities,their suppliers. Then they have not been57600:44:19,599 --> 00:44:22,880delivering the properties they said that thatthey were going to deliver. In fact,57700:44:22,880 --> 00:44:27,119there's many people in China that arepaying mortgages for flats that have still57800:44:27,519 --> 00:44:31,400undeveloped, and so you know,you can imagine that China is not experiencing57900:44:31,400 --> 00:44:36,199a good economic system if people arepaying mortgages for a place they're not even58000:44:36,199 --> 00:44:38,960living at a lot. And oildown two bucks last week to eighty one58100:44:39,119 --> 00:44:45,079thirty, goal down twenty seven dollarsto eighteen eighty six. Gold have been58200:44:45,079 --> 00:44:49,199down for four consecutive weeks and it'snow ten point two percent off of the58300:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,519high. And as you say,it's correlated inversely to the dollar, and58400:44:52,559 --> 00:44:55,440the dollars gain strength over the lastfour weeks. Yeah. Well, so58500:44:55,920 --> 00:45:00,920all this mess sets out there,confusion, airing, fear, markets going58600:45:00,920 --> 00:45:06,559down. Now, how do youprevent it? Prevent it through risk mitigation.58700:45:06,639 --> 00:45:07,920And the only way you can reallydo that is to find your risk58800:45:08,039 --> 00:45:14,840tolerance and put a plan together.Right, We planned for this, okay,58900:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,719We planned for the market getting allthe valued and eventually come down.59000:45:17,760 --> 00:45:21,719We were early, We're always early. It seems like we playing for the59100:45:21,760 --> 00:45:22,840long term too. We're not sittingthere trying to time the market. If59200:45:22,840 --> 00:45:27,559we see a trend going on,we're gonna act on it, and sometimes59300:45:27,559 --> 00:45:30,000it is early, like we wereearly with the short trading changing from long59400:45:30,119 --> 00:45:35,119term bondy tf to short term bondttfs two short term bonds. We were59500:45:35,159 --> 00:45:37,360early, but now it's turning outthat we were right with it. It's59600:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,559just happened to be a little early. But we're looking for the long term,59700:45:39,599 --> 00:45:44,559not We never try to make awhole decision immediately. We do it59800:45:44,599 --> 00:45:47,199all the time. So as themarket was going out, we were hedging,59900:45:47,239 --> 00:45:51,199we were getting out, mitigating risk, and that I was coming down.60000:45:51,679 --> 00:45:55,000We're looking for opportunities and not onlythings yet, looking for opportunities as60100:45:55,119 --> 00:45:58,960if it continues to come down,and this is the correction that people are60200:45:59,199 --> 00:46:02,239and it would go ahead. Thependulum always swings of what we're gonna buy,60300:46:02,840 --> 00:46:06,519how we're gonna buy it, howwe're gonna allocate it, where the60400:46:06,559 --> 00:46:09,800money's gonna come from. We planahead. You all need to plan for60500:46:09,920 --> 00:46:15,039your future for what you have.We you know, with dealing the whole60600:46:15,039 --> 00:46:20,039thing, you gotta put a financialplan in place before you can even imagine60700:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,559all this other stuff. The bestpart of that, what we do that60800:46:22,599 --> 00:46:27,760most people don't do is we actuallythen manage it ourselves. We take the60900:46:27,800 --> 00:46:32,239responsibility, the accountability as a fiduciaryto allocate the portfolio according to your risk61000:46:32,239 --> 00:46:37,519tolerance. And that why that's whywe know so much about this, because61100:46:37,519 --> 00:46:40,360we're not just handing it off tosomebody else and read it reading Time magazine.61200:46:42,079 --> 00:46:45,679We're actually there every day feeling thepain when it goes down and and61300:46:45,679 --> 00:46:49,079and and being happy when it goesup. Yeah, exactly. Or we61400:46:49,159 --> 00:46:52,480build your portfolio based on your risktolerance because that's how much you can stomach61500:46:52,519 --> 00:46:54,480with a market volatility like right now, we just saw it down week with61600:46:54,519 --> 00:46:58,320this S and P down two percent? Can you stomach that? If you61700:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,480can? You obviously we're more aggressivebecause your stocks would probably drop it.61800:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,199If you're somebody who's a little morerisk adverse, you're not going to be61900:47:04,440 --> 00:47:07,760in an aggressive portfolio that we buildif you can't handle it. And remember,62000:47:08,440 --> 00:47:12,119you need a financial plan, youneed to talk to us. It's62100:47:12,159 --> 00:47:16,000complimentary, free. Whatever you talkabout. Most people tell you it's free62200:47:16,199 --> 00:47:19,840and they ask what. The onlyway you get it is even go ahead62300:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,239and do business with them. Iwill never do that. You come in,62400:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,800it's complimentary, we do it.We'll send it to you whether you62500:47:24,880 --> 00:47:30,119do business with us or not.The Good Lord bless everybody. You love62600:47:30,119 --> 00:47:34,119doing business with us, and we'reable to stay in business. So obviously62700:47:34,199 --> 00:47:37,760we're doing something right by making surethat you're taking care of and we leave62800:47:37,800 --> 00:47:43,280in your stress and showing you transparentlyhow this is gonna work. We'll be62900:47:43,400 --> 00:48:00,039right back with the second hour ofthe Money many Show. Welcome back.63000:48:00,079 --> 00:48:02,679You're listening to the second hour ofthe Money Matters Show. We got a63100:48:02,679 --> 00:48:06,159special guest in with this segment.But before we get back to that,63200:48:06,360 --> 00:48:07,960for those of you just tuning in, we had a down week in the63300:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,880markets last week. The Dow wasdown two point two percent, the SMP63400:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,719five hundred was down two point onepercent, and the NASDAC was down two63500:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,440point six percent. Russell two thousand, which is the small caps, was63600:48:17,440 --> 00:48:21,519down the most at three point threepercent, and then the RSP, which63700:48:21,599 --> 00:48:24,639is the equal weighted SMP five hundred, and we've been wanting to focus more63800:48:24,679 --> 00:48:30,119on that this year because of thatMagnificent seven kind of debacle thing that's been63900:48:30,199 --> 00:48:34,400just carrying every the whole SMP fivehundred that was down two point six percent,64000:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,719so as a whole of the marketsfor down just overall about two hundred64100:48:37,719 --> 00:48:39,480percent, so it wasn't a greatweek. We are seeing kind of a64200:48:39,480 --> 00:48:44,639down August, which isn't usual.Usually that happens in September, so we're64300:48:44,679 --> 00:48:47,719kind of seeing but this is somethingwe've kind of been expecting after the first64400:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,880six months. We'll talk more aboutthe markets as we go. Right now,64500:48:51,920 --> 00:48:55,880we got Zach Nevlef from solar prosArizona. Tell us a little bit64600:48:55,880 --> 00:48:59,559about yourself. Dec Welcome on.What's up guys. Yeah, I'm just64700:48:59,599 --> 00:49:02,280Solaring energy expert here to tell you. You know, let's make the ultimate64800:49:02,280 --> 00:49:06,599power move. Switching the solar isreally simple and easy. All you need64900:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,960is your electricity bill to see howmuch you can actually save and if it's65000:49:09,000 --> 00:49:13,920a good investment or not for yourparticular scenario. We've got to see if65100:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,400you qualify for it and if yourhome is a good fit or not.65200:49:16,920 --> 00:49:22,320Okay, So Sola, tell usabout Sola. If people don't have sola,65300:49:22,639 --> 00:49:25,039you know, you see round disc, you see square disk, you65400:49:25,079 --> 00:49:30,760see sola. You see solo farmsall over the place. Okay, I65500:49:30,800 --> 00:49:34,960don't understand the differences of what youshould do, how you should and there's65600:49:35,000 --> 00:49:38,440so many solo companies, how doyou separate the companies? So basically one,65700:49:38,559 --> 00:49:42,039you know, with the New InflationReduction Act, I like to call65800:49:42,079 --> 00:49:45,599it the New Green Deal. Withthe over five billion dollars of the government65900:49:45,639 --> 00:49:49,519put into this, it really mitigateswhere you want to see your solo right,66000:49:49,599 --> 00:49:53,119So we have different avenues for eachdifferent person. Right, So if66100:49:53,119 --> 00:49:58,559that's your business, a nonprofit oryour homeowner. Sorry, if you rent,66200:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,719unfortunately you're not going to be ableto take to be able to use66300:50:01,760 --> 00:50:06,360any of it. But if youdon't, you're able to get all the66400:50:06,400 --> 00:50:10,800benefits from you know, basically hedgingagainst inflation and making sure that you're locked66500:50:10,840 --> 00:50:15,719into what you need to pay forfree energy. Yep, So I mean66600:50:15,760 --> 00:50:20,159and then you said what you lookat is just your electric bill and from66700:50:20,199 --> 00:50:22,480there you can determine how much youneed. And that's how you that's really66800:50:22,519 --> 00:50:24,960how you get going on the wholeprocess, right to see, you send66900:50:25,000 --> 00:50:29,880your electric bill in, you seehow much solar you need, and it's67000:50:29,920 --> 00:50:34,119all specified for the person and theiruse per house. Yeah, basically,67100:50:34,239 --> 00:50:37,320yes, So what we'd like todo is tailor system for your specific needs.67200:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,960If you're a big business or ifyou're just you know the residential you67300:50:42,000 --> 00:50:45,360know homeowner. Right, So whatwe tend to look at is one,67400:50:45,559 --> 00:50:50,079what utility do you have? Ifyou have t EP APS, solar is67500:50:50,119 --> 00:50:52,360a no brainer for you, andyou need to make sure you get on67600:50:52,400 --> 00:50:57,559board as quickly as you can.Why is that Well, with TP and67700:50:57,760 --> 00:51:02,000APS you can actually elminate your entirebill, opposed to if you have like67800:51:02,320 --> 00:51:06,840sulfur springs or trico, you're notgoing to be able to do that.67900:51:06,960 --> 00:51:09,320Now you're gonna have to pair upyour system with a battery, But TEP68000:51:09,519 --> 00:51:14,440and APS you're gonna let the gridbe your battery and just basically backfeed,68100:51:14,480 --> 00:51:17,320get the access generation and make sureyou really don't ever actually have to pay68200:51:17,800 --> 00:51:22,159your electricity bill again because now you'rejust doing a utility swap and you're just68300:51:22,159 --> 00:51:28,119paying for the solar. What's theaverage cost of a residential system is or68400:51:28,199 --> 00:51:30,519such as things that as average?There is an average. I mean,68500:51:30,519 --> 00:51:34,480I could tell you the average Isell at, but it really depends on68600:51:34,519 --> 00:51:38,280the average person. Right, So, and there's different ways to get solar.68700:51:38,480 --> 00:51:42,159That's the biggest key in all ofthis, right, you need to68800:51:42,199 --> 00:51:45,760sit down with a trusted individual whocan help you with your specific scenarios.68900:51:45,840 --> 00:51:49,119Right with that, how do youknow who you can trust the person?69000:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,760Because most people don't know anything aboutsolar and you hear all these different things.69100:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,480They sell you too much power,they sell you too much of this69200:51:57,000 --> 00:51:59,320I don't even know they need it. On the roof they will and your69300:51:59,360 --> 00:52:00,880roof. I mean, there's alot of things that come out that are69400:52:00,960 --> 00:52:06,400negatives. The positive issorly is yourbill. So here's the biggest problem I69500:52:06,480 --> 00:52:09,519see in our industries, just specificallyhere in Tucson and Phoenix. You have69600:52:09,719 --> 00:52:15,599all these guys and gals coming fromLas Vegas, Utah, New York,69700:52:15,639 --> 00:52:20,800New Jersey, all over the countryto come sell here in sunny Arizona.69800:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,400Yet they know nothing about our utility. They don't know how to set up69900:52:24,440 --> 00:52:30,320these systems for the correct offset,and now they under deliver and they overcharge70000:52:30,360 --> 00:52:34,519on some of our homeowners. Andthat's the biggest thing, is how trust70100:52:34,639 --> 00:52:37,480is lost. You know, allthese people coming knocking your doors, chances70200:52:37,519 --> 00:52:40,599are they're not even from here,or they'll say yeah, I'm local,70300:52:40,639 --> 00:52:44,679I'm local, and they're really notasking where they're from. Then check to70400:52:44,719 --> 00:52:50,239see that you're vetting these companies becausechances are they don't even they subcontract out70500:52:50,239 --> 00:52:54,880this work. They're contracting it outwith national installer like tight In or Freedom70600:52:54,920 --> 00:52:59,679Forever. All they're doing is basicallywholesale real estate, but they don't know70700:52:59,719 --> 00:53:01,199how to sell it back to you, and now they're inflating the prices on70800:53:01,239 --> 00:53:06,840you. What's the what's the taxcredit now on solar? So the tax70900:53:06,880 --> 00:53:09,719credit if you get a loan orcash, you get the tax credit.71000:53:09,760 --> 00:53:14,119If you lease a system, youdo not. So basically how the tax71100:53:14,159 --> 00:53:17,760credit works with the Inflation Reduction Actthat it got raised back to thirty percent,71200:53:17,840 --> 00:53:21,000So the Fed is going to giveyou a thirty percent tax credit.71300:53:21,239 --> 00:53:23,760Arizona is going to give you anadditional thousand dollars if you have not tapped71400:53:23,800 --> 00:53:30,519in to that energy efficiency on yourhome already. And then also in the71500:53:30,599 --> 00:53:34,039Inflation Reduction Act, if you getAmerican made panels, you can get an71600:53:34,039 --> 00:53:37,679additional ten percent. Wow, Sohow do you is that something that you71700:53:37,719 --> 00:53:43,039guys do as a company you alluse American made panels or that's at something71800:53:43,079 --> 00:53:46,840that someone has to request. Usuallyit's up to the consumer. I have71900:53:46,880 --> 00:53:51,719the American made panels. They're great, don't get me wrong. Uh no,72000:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,199there, They're all about the same. It's really the technology that is72100:53:54,239 --> 00:53:59,360the biggest difference. And when Isay technology, it's either the micro inverter72200:53:59,760 --> 00:54:02,280with end phase, which I like, or solar Edge, but solar Edge72300:54:02,360 --> 00:54:07,760uses power optimizers. They're both greatproducts, but I like the scalability of72400:54:07,920 --> 00:54:09,559end phase because you don't have toget so much later on if you want72500:54:09,559 --> 00:54:15,119to answer your system or you putin a battery later. How do you72600:54:15,199 --> 00:54:19,639know what system you need how much? And you know because I heard this,72700:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,199well you need this many panels orthis many panels. What is it72800:54:22,199 --> 00:54:25,519all? What is it all relativeto? So it's all relative to your72900:54:25,559 --> 00:54:30,119bill and the kilowatt hours that youuse, like and you consume. So73000:54:30,199 --> 00:54:31,559when you look at your bill,there's a graph on your bill, and73100:54:31,599 --> 00:54:36,039that graph is going to show youyour average daily build usage, but more73200:54:36,079 --> 00:54:40,440importantly, your total build kilowatt usagefor the entire month. Now, when73300:54:40,480 --> 00:54:44,199I see that bill, they giveit to you, and that graph shows73400:54:44,280 --> 00:54:46,360a two year history. I'm goingto take the average of each month.73500:54:46,400 --> 00:54:51,239I'm going to plug it in andsee exactly how much you use annually.73600:54:51,679 --> 00:54:54,840When I do that, I'm thengoing to factor in the panels and how73700:54:54,840 --> 00:54:58,480they look on your roof. Ifyou have a flat roof, what I'm73800:54:58,519 --> 00:55:01,039going to do is I'm going totilt its twenty percent do south to make73900:55:01,039 --> 00:55:06,639sure that I get the optimal productionfor your home. Never am I going74000:55:06,679 --> 00:55:08,239to put a panel on the northside of your home, because then production74100:55:08,320 --> 00:55:12,840is gonna drop. So your designalso plays a factor and the key into74200:55:12,920 --> 00:55:15,840this. And basically, if you'reat east west facing home, you gotta74300:55:15,880 --> 00:55:20,760place panels on both. So ifyou have a true south facing home less74400:55:20,800 --> 00:55:22,679panels, if you have east andwest, you might need a few more74500:55:22,719 --> 00:55:28,199panels to get that optimal one hundredand twenty five percent offset, which will74600:55:28,480 --> 00:55:31,559then in turn make it a lotbetter for you, so you won't really74700:55:31,599 --> 00:55:38,360have a bill. So the theaverage house on everye house of what eighteen74800:55:38,440 --> 00:55:45,960hundred square feed maybe everye se SoI'm gonna spend twenty grand grand What am74900:55:45,960 --> 00:55:47,840I going to spend? It reallydepends on your usage, right. I75000:55:49,559 --> 00:55:55,159typically see homeowners it's about forty thousanddollars, but there's different ways to get75100:55:55,199 --> 00:55:59,199there. Right, So if youlease the system, it's going to be75200:55:59,280 --> 00:56:02,159far less, but then you don'tget the tax credit, and then you're75300:56:02,199 --> 00:56:06,639gonna be fixed over that whatever termthat you want. But also, when75400:56:06,679 --> 00:56:08,519you lease the system, it's notgoing to hit your DTI and it's not75500:56:08,519 --> 00:56:13,760going to show up on your creditreport. So that's better for some homeowners75600:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,400that are challenged in those areas.So let's walk through something. Okay,75700:56:16,480 --> 00:56:22,119Dame's a perfect consumer. He thinksthat at his age and where are you75800:56:22,159 --> 00:56:27,559at, what he's doing, hewould never benefit like buying solo right now75900:56:27,920 --> 00:56:30,800and then seeing it down the road. So how do you how do you76000:56:30,880 --> 00:56:32,119walk through that with somebody? Allright, well, what are we talking76100:56:32,119 --> 00:56:37,280about? We're on here and youknow money matters. Look dat, No,76200:56:37,400 --> 00:56:40,159I get it. And you're nevertoo old to start saving right.76300:56:40,239 --> 00:56:45,079So what I tell my people?You're never too old to start saving money76400:56:45,400 --> 00:56:49,239right, and which means you didn'tget your tax break. You're always going76500:56:49,320 --> 00:56:52,719to be able to see a returnon your investment in solar. It's just76600:56:52,760 --> 00:56:54,760when are you going to see it? So here, Zack, you're if76700:56:54,760 --> 00:56:58,480it's gonna cost me forty grand right, yes, sir, I get a76800:56:58,559 --> 00:57:01,360thirty percent of saving Sonoma, twentyeight grand. Right, I might get76900:57:01,400 --> 00:57:07,119a thousand bucks off, so I'ma twenty seven grand anything else, So77000:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,280taking consideration the extra ten percent you'llget for the American may panels. Okay,77100:57:10,280 --> 00:57:13,679So American may panels. So Iget another four graphs and I'm a77200:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,679twenty three grander. Let's say let'ssay twenty four twenty four grand. Let's77300:57:16,679 --> 00:57:21,519say my average utility bills two hundreddollars a month, right, yep,77400:57:21,960 --> 00:57:23,960Okay, so I'm gonna be lookingat twenty years to break even. No,77500:57:24,480 --> 00:57:29,079so you never gonna happen. No, you gotta remember you're also heading77600:57:29,119 --> 00:57:31,639against inflation. So when you doget sold, I'm heading against inflation.77700:57:31,800 --> 00:57:37,760Okay, So perfect scenario. InSeptember, tpr TP customer correct, right,77800:57:38,119 --> 00:57:42,159right, TP is going to raisethe rate of electricity by twelve percent.77900:57:42,239 --> 00:57:45,400That is going to happen. That'salready passed the Arizona Corporation Commission.78000:57:45,960 --> 00:57:51,280On average with the Department of Energyis a four percent increase. TP has78100:57:51,320 --> 00:57:54,159more than doubled that over the lastthree four years. So at that same78200:57:54,280 --> 00:58:00,840rate of inflation, you're gonna beable to find the return on your investment78300:58:01,039 --> 00:58:06,440within five years. I don't seehow I honestly don't. If you're if78400:58:06,440 --> 00:58:09,280two hundred dollars a month is yourutility bill and you're taking that away from78500:58:09,280 --> 00:58:12,800me, right, so I'm savingtwenty four hundred dollars a year, I'm78600:58:12,840 --> 00:58:15,159out of pocket twenty four thousand dollars. Yeah, but you're also going to78700:58:15,199 --> 00:58:20,199be adding into equity every month.So instead of just throwing your money away78800:58:20,199 --> 00:58:27,000to tep at one hundred percent,one hundred percent in play something. What78900:58:27,039 --> 00:58:29,960do you mean you're gonna anti yourequity? What equity? So the equity79000:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,199to your home. Now you havea paid off system, typically you're gonna79100:58:32,199 --> 00:58:37,519find four to seven percent uh equityin your home when you go to sell79200:58:37,599 --> 00:58:42,119with a house that has solar.That hasn't been my experience, and I'm79300:58:42,159 --> 00:58:45,320not you know better than I do. But but if I have Dylan,79400:58:45,360 --> 00:58:47,119you just bought a house with sellerdidn't make any difference at all? Right,79500:58:47,199 --> 00:58:50,199No, But I was talking toZach and I like, it wasn't79600:58:50,239 --> 00:58:52,800made for me. So it's usuallynot doing it's too little I got any79700:58:52,880 --> 00:58:57,559more. So that's so your solaris not adequate? Is that you're apparently79800:58:57,599 --> 00:59:00,480not not what I learned in thosesummers is my first summer house. So79900:59:00,559 --> 00:59:04,360I'm using too much Killer lots orwhatever it is, because but it was80000:59:04,400 --> 00:59:07,239made for the previous owners. Buteven the example will use zac. I'm80100:59:07,360 --> 00:59:10,360gonna break even in ten years,right, so that's not the end of80200:59:10,360 --> 00:59:14,840the world. But I have nextdoor neighbors who are in their mid eighties80300:59:14,840 --> 00:59:16,199who are buying. Don't think,what are you doing? What I was80400:59:16,199 --> 00:59:21,159trying to get to what's doing?You know, Dave's a little older than80500:59:21,239 --> 00:59:24,599everyone else here, and so Iuse him as an example. You had80600:59:24,599 --> 00:59:27,639some good comebacks, so I wasproud of you that well. I mean,80700:59:28,000 --> 00:59:30,599at the end of the day,it's ownership versus renting, right,80800:59:30,639 --> 00:59:31,960And it does probably add a littlebit of value to the house when you80900:59:32,039 --> 00:59:36,960say when you own it. Yeah, And and for his specific scenario,81000:59:37,400 --> 00:59:39,159Dave isn't going to be someone who'sgoing to finance this, so it's gonna81100:59:39,159 --> 00:59:43,960be a lot less, right thanthe forty thousand dollars on average, right,81200:59:44,000 --> 00:59:47,480Not everyone has the cash up frontto pay for an entire system.81300:59:47,800 --> 00:59:52,320When you have the cash, it'sgonna drop that price down significantly, So81400:59:52,679 --> 00:59:55,159the return on your investment is justgonna come quicker. Now, what are81500:59:55,199 --> 00:59:59,719these other ones? You say thata sixty seventy eighty thousand dollars systems,81601:00:00,280 --> 01:00:04,599So those are not your average homeowners. Those are people who are consuming a81701:00:04,639 --> 01:00:07,000lot of electricity, and in thatsense, you're going to see the return81801:00:07,039 --> 01:00:10,239on your investment a lot sooner.But I didn't know how much you're using81901:00:10,320 --> 01:00:19,920just the yeah electric ability because becauseyeah, Dylan has uh far seated his82001:00:20,000 --> 01:00:24,079system. Plus dyling system was madeby you know, Dylan. You paid82101:00:24,119 --> 01:00:28,480to Tesla now, right, soyou had Solar City at one point when82201:00:28,519 --> 01:00:30,440they were here and then Tesla bottomand I have so I have nine years82301:00:30,559 --> 01:00:34,159left on my lease that I tookover from the previous owners. Once that82401:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,840lease is up, are those mine? Would have to give them back and82501:00:36,840 --> 01:00:39,320get like an updated one. Soyou're so you can purchase them at the82601:00:39,400 --> 01:00:44,599end of your lease. The differenceis how much. It all depends on82701:00:44,639 --> 01:00:50,719what it says in your contract.We didn't think there was such a thing,82801:00:50,800 --> 01:00:52,639apparently, I am. Yeah,I didn't. I just took it82901:00:52,639 --> 01:00:55,119over because I mean, why wouldn'tI right, And but you have a83001:00:55,159 --> 01:00:59,920baby system. You have like afive kilowatt system. The average homeowner has83101:01:00,039 --> 01:01:02,679at least ten. It's also aboutI think the least is already six seven83201:01:02,760 --> 01:01:06,880years old, so it was backin the mid twenty fifteen. So see83301:01:06,920 --> 01:01:10,079that's the different thing. He haslease and buy a system, so we83401:01:10,119 --> 01:01:15,079could tie into his lease system already, and that's making one payment. Yeah,83501:01:15,239 --> 01:01:16,880make it a buy out rather thanthe lease. Yeah. And the83601:01:16,920 --> 01:01:22,719reason why it's uh, I woulddo it if I was Dylan is because83701:01:22,719 --> 01:01:25,280he's still stuck on net metering.So what that means is he's still on83801:01:25,360 --> 01:01:30,119dollar for dollar cost opposed to what'sgoing to happen in October. If you83901:01:30,119 --> 01:01:35,079don't do anything, uh and notget solar, you're going your your buy84001:01:35,119 --> 01:01:37,239back rate is going to go down. But since Dylan bought a home that84101:01:37,280 --> 01:01:40,960already has solar, he has dollarfor dollar costs. So whatever he sells84201:01:42,000 --> 01:01:46,039back into the grid, he getsthat back. So or what no,84301:01:46,039 --> 01:01:52,239no, no, no dollar fordollar costs with in return In regards to84401:01:52,679 --> 01:01:58,639net billing or net metering, isthe rate you pay for your electricity is84501:01:58,679 --> 01:02:02,599the same rate you sell it backto TEP. Zach, I was interested84601:02:02,639 --> 01:02:06,920when you said you put the panelsat a twenty percent angle. Yes,84701:02:07,039 --> 01:02:09,679I've got an next door neighbor who'sgot to be forty five percent. Forty84801:02:09,679 --> 01:02:13,760five percent on their pitch. Yes, I believe that's a little too much.84901:02:14,360 --> 01:02:16,880So based off of our latitude andlongitude lines, the optimal is from85001:02:16,880 --> 01:02:21,599fifteen to twenty percent. So he'sfor forty five is really not good.85101:02:22,119 --> 01:02:25,960I wouldn't say it's not good.Anything's better than help them more. In85201:02:27,000 --> 01:02:30,039that scenario, you're saying, hehas a flat roof, has a flat85301:02:30,119 --> 01:02:32,599roof, right right, and heput up the panels and they don't bother.85401:02:32,800 --> 01:02:36,239You go out there with your compassand check or what's the deal.85501:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,920Yeah, he's a president. Yeah, see to get him down. He85601:02:40,000 --> 01:02:43,800sees him from his back yard.It's just bunking up. And I don't85701:02:43,800 --> 01:02:45,119sham at all. I don't shaimat all. But I see him when85801:02:45,119 --> 01:02:49,199I drive in and they're forty fivedegree And I thought, because I love85901:02:49,239 --> 01:02:52,679the Tesla solar panels, because they'reflat, you don't see them at all.86001:02:52,679 --> 01:02:54,199It's h a president I loved.Yeah, that's what I have.86101:02:54,480 --> 01:03:00,599But all right, so that's no, they're not they're not testless solar panels.86201:03:00,599 --> 01:03:02,679It's solar city and they bought outthe leases. So then now that86301:03:04,079 --> 01:03:09,360Tesla is making it all back,basically they get paid. So like I86401:03:09,400 --> 01:03:13,519got the whole solar panel across myroof, do you come in take that86501:03:13,559 --> 01:03:15,840off? Put stronger ones on ormore on or no? So those panels86601:03:15,880 --> 01:03:20,440are gonna last you another twenty years, right, it's not leases and you86701:03:20,559 --> 01:03:22,960take them away, well, ifthey take them away, but I mean86801:03:22,039 --> 01:03:24,559as far as the durability of it, it's gonna last for a lot longer86901:03:24,599 --> 01:03:28,760than what you'd expect. Every right, every life of the solar panel.87001:03:29,000 --> 01:03:31,719Yeah, they were, so wewarrant to them for twenty five years and87101:03:31,719 --> 01:03:35,800that year twenty five they only degradeto nine two they were, So you're87201:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,239going to be able to keep usingthem for another, you know, twenty87301:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,679thirty years after that. Yeah.But so in a sense of say electric87401:03:40,679 --> 01:03:45,719cars, they were installed I thinklike seven years ago. Is it like87501:03:45,760 --> 01:03:49,360the technology now just that much moreadvanced than it was seven years ago.87601:03:49,400 --> 01:03:52,440Our solar panel is still about thesame. No, the solar panels had.87701:03:52,519 --> 01:03:54,239The technology has come a long way. So they went from like poly87801:03:54,320 --> 01:03:58,840crystalline panels to mono crystalline panels.So that's why you see some of these87901:03:58,880 --> 01:04:01,760older ones they look kind of bluish, and now the new ones are like88001:04:01,880 --> 01:04:05,719real black and sleek. So that'sreally the difference there. To take off88101:04:05,760 --> 01:04:10,840my current ones and put on newerones. No, I would leave those88201:04:10,920 --> 01:04:14,239on and just add on to yoursystem. Because you have a five kilowatt88301:04:14,280 --> 01:04:15,719system. Now you don't have toadd on. It just adds to my88401:04:15,719 --> 01:04:19,760Solar City lease bill. No,you would do this separately. So you88501:04:19,760 --> 01:04:23,880could either cash out a system,get thirty percent tax credit. You could88601:04:24,920 --> 01:04:28,760take good sorry, take a loanout for it, or you could at88701:04:28,840 --> 01:04:30,920least another system, but it's alltied in together, so you would just88801:04:30,920 --> 01:04:33,280be paying two difference. Well,if you do it, Dylan, you88901:04:33,400 --> 01:04:36,000need to go ahead and buy thesystem to get the tax ride off,89001:04:38,039 --> 01:04:40,239right, Otherwise it doesn't make sense. And then you just get along and89101:04:40,280 --> 01:04:43,039pay that like you're paying the least. How much is your least now,89201:04:44,559 --> 01:04:46,280right, so you buy it,so maybe it's more, but then you89301:04:46,320 --> 01:04:48,679own it. It's on top ofthe place. Well exactly, Yeah,89401:04:48,719 --> 01:04:50,719that's what I'm trying to figure out. I thought, how long is that89501:04:50,840 --> 01:04:55,079least? You know, no moreyears? I don't I forgot exactly how89601:04:55,079 --> 01:04:57,599long and I think at fifteen yearlease, so it's not that much you89701:04:57,599 --> 01:05:00,760really buy out and then and thenyou see what it costs to upgrade.89801:05:00,880 --> 01:05:04,000So now you now you don't haveyour electric bill. What do you have89901:05:04,039 --> 01:05:06,440to figure out is what to do? Would you would your water system?90001:05:10,159 --> 01:05:12,400Yeah, welcome to the olen ownership. I got a root awaken into that90101:05:12,440 --> 01:05:18,440last week with water pipe break.Is welcome the home ownership, I know,90201:05:18,519 --> 01:05:21,039and that water bill is big andthat was like that was a big90301:05:21,119 --> 01:05:25,719root awake and its own ownership.But so, Zach, what's step one?90401:05:25,800 --> 01:05:28,599If a person says, you know, I'm really would like to explore90501:05:28,639 --> 01:05:30,719this, what's step one? Soyou would contact me, we'd sit down90601:05:31,599 --> 01:05:34,960and I have to look at firstyour electricity box. I want to see90701:05:35,000 --> 01:05:40,079if that main panel is actually atwo hundred rated amp or two twenty five.90801:05:41,000 --> 01:05:43,440And then from there, I'm justgonna look and then I get your90901:05:43,440 --> 01:05:46,199bill. I'll go over all yourscenarios with you to see if the lease,91001:05:46,519 --> 01:05:50,639loan or cash scenario fits you best. And then from there, you91101:05:50,719 --> 01:05:54,360know, I'm the easy Yes,we still got to make sure your roof91201:05:54,440 --> 01:05:58,159is okay and can handle the solar. We got to make sure that you91301:05:58,159 --> 01:06:00,679know your authority having jurisdictions with it, like City of Tucson, p MA91401:06:00,760 --> 01:06:05,400County. You know what I mean. Sometimes there's saturation zones, or there's91501:06:05,440 --> 01:06:10,800transformer issues. I've come across homeowners. You know, they needed a twenty91601:06:10,800 --> 01:06:15,039six kilowatt system, but that transformercan couldn't keep up with the demand of91701:06:15,079 --> 01:06:18,320it, so they had to upgradethe whole transformer for them to even get91801:06:18,320 --> 01:06:24,480solar. So just it it juststep one is to get a hold of91901:06:24,519 --> 01:06:26,920you and have you come to thehouse. Yes, look at this,92001:06:27,039 --> 01:06:30,199look at what they have, lookat their electrical grid, look at their92101:06:30,199 --> 01:06:32,840bills, right, and go andgo from there, Yes, sir.92201:06:33,079 --> 01:06:40,519And one of the things that we'vehad a kind of uh my buddy Ron92301:06:40,599 --> 01:06:45,039who's uh was my electric car guruand my solar guru. He said,92401:06:45,039 --> 01:06:48,519the biggest problem with solar is thatthe salesman simply try to sell you way92501:06:48,559 --> 01:06:54,119too much because they get baked commission. And so how do you how do92601:06:54,119 --> 01:06:57,920you guard against that? So youreally need to understand what your market is,92701:06:58,280 --> 01:07:00,920right, uh, and you needlike check your price per watt,92801:07:01,039 --> 01:07:03,920right, That's that's the best ethicalway you could figure it out. What92901:07:04,159 --> 01:07:08,719per price per watt? What arethey charging you price per watt? Right93001:07:08,920 --> 01:07:12,119for a cash system, you shouldbe looking at two sixty to three dollars,93101:07:12,159 --> 01:07:15,760depending on how much electrical work isneeded. If you're getting a loan,93201:07:15,960 --> 01:07:20,599if you want a usually the solarconsultant will have loan options for you93301:07:20,639 --> 01:07:24,480as well. Right now, Ican give you like a three point nine93401:07:24,599 --> 01:07:29,480nine for example, but it's gonnabe a lot more expensive that way.93501:07:29,519 --> 01:07:31,079So the price per watt is goingto go up a lot higher opposed to93601:07:31,079 --> 01:07:34,920a cash pricing when you're exactly demeanedup. But when you're talking, we're93701:07:35,000 --> 01:07:39,800running out of time here. We'retalking about forty thousand dollars. Is that93801:07:40,199 --> 01:07:45,039a fully financed including the finance chargesor well, you said a person with93901:07:45,159 --> 01:07:48,719cash can get a much better deal. What are we talking about? So94001:07:48,840 --> 01:07:54,199you're looking at at least a thirtyfive percent discount in today's market and for94101:07:54,280 --> 01:07:59,760a cash buyer. For a cashbuyer, yes, yes, you still94201:07:59,800 --> 01:08:02,039get thousand dollars. You still getyour ten percent In America, Mesa,94301:08:02,360 --> 01:08:05,840I mean it sounds to me likeif I were to commit with cash,94401:08:05,880 --> 01:08:09,679you would owe me money. Yeah, it sounds like an old brainer.94501:08:09,800 --> 01:08:12,599That's why I'm making the switch tosolars. You know, the ultimate power94601:08:12,639 --> 01:08:15,960move. And like your guy,Warren Buffett says, energy deregulation will be94701:08:16,039 --> 01:08:20,760the largest transfer of wealth in history. If you know, it's always about94801:08:20,800 --> 01:08:24,680trust. You know, we wouldnever have somebody on here that we didn't94901:08:24,680 --> 01:08:28,000trust on the radio. Absolutely,Okay, I want to go further than95001:08:28,039 --> 01:08:30,119that. I've known trust Zach fora long long time. And if you95101:08:30,159 --> 01:08:34,760ever really knew Zach and his backgroundand all, you'd be very you'd understand95201:08:34,800 --> 01:08:41,039why he is nothing but the mostethical person. And you know we've been95301:08:41,079 --> 01:08:44,359together for a while. He's likeI almost consider another one of my kids.95401:08:44,680 --> 01:08:46,920Okay, but you're not in myinheritance, so don't don't get that95501:08:46,960 --> 01:08:50,880excited. Hey, I already missedout on all the restaurants, and uh,95601:08:51,199 --> 01:08:55,600he's worked for us at the restaurants. He's the one I trusted.95701:08:55,920 --> 01:08:58,560He's been here. But you knowwhat, now he's a he's a dad,95801:08:58,600 --> 01:09:02,000he's got four kids, he's he'she's got a wife. He's now95901:09:02,039 --> 01:09:05,520the head coach of Tucson High.That's why Dylan and I decided that would96001:09:05,520 --> 01:09:09,439go over to him. He's gotall the things that matter. He will96101:09:09,479 --> 01:09:14,079talk straight to you just like wedo. And and and it's uh,96201:09:14,399 --> 01:09:17,000it's definitely something I'm looking at doing, and I think Dylan's going to be96301:09:17,039 --> 01:09:20,239looking at doing at least get theestimate. It's just like a free financial96401:09:20,279 --> 01:09:24,399plan. It doesn't cost you anythingfor Zach to come to your house,96501:09:24,960 --> 01:09:28,880talk football with you if you likefootball, talk kids if you want kids,96601:09:29,399 --> 01:09:31,159and then give it and then talkto you about sola. And you96701:09:31,199 --> 01:09:34,640know a lot of us just likejust like when people with financial plans,96801:09:34,800 --> 01:09:36,960when it comes to solo, it'slike, I don't know enough, so96901:09:38,000 --> 01:09:41,960I don't really like having a salesmancome to my house and try to sell97001:09:42,000 --> 01:09:45,600me Sola. No, I thinkI think. I think you had a97101:09:45,720 --> 01:09:48,399very good point, Dean's it's socritical when you people always say, well,97201:09:48,439 --> 01:09:50,760I'd like to learn a little bitmore about stock, you know,97301:09:50,840 --> 01:09:56,079and my question. But when youwake up in the morning and your car's97401:09:56,159 --> 01:09:59,279not working. As your first tripto the library, you get a book97501:09:59,319 --> 01:10:01,520on automocann you know, if youlook up with them, your tooth is97601:10:01,600 --> 01:10:05,119killing you. You're gonna stop bythe library and get a book on dentistry.97701:10:05,239 --> 01:10:10,560Now you're gonna find someone you trustand you're going to have them help97801:10:10,600 --> 01:10:14,640you. And in this in yourbusiness, Zach, as you just mentioned,97901:10:14,840 --> 01:10:17,720there are an awful lot of literallyfly by night people. No,98001:10:17,920 --> 01:10:24,960definitely, and Soiler needs to getregulated. You know, I'm here to98101:10:25,000 --> 01:10:29,520say that one the people that areselling Soiler don't know anything and here they98201:10:29,560 --> 01:10:32,880are, you know, writing fakeemails for people, taking advantage of people.98301:10:32,880 --> 01:10:34,800It needs to go. Like realestate and mortgages, you need to98401:10:34,840 --> 01:10:39,239be licensed to secler. I think, especially with some of the kidmissions you're98501:10:39,279 --> 01:10:42,720able to make. Yeah, yeah, and and but you know you stoff98601:10:42,800 --> 01:10:45,079Zach, and you're there and you'reone of the most personal people I know,98701:10:45,720 --> 01:10:49,359and you'll make people feel at easewhen you start talking to them and98801:10:50,079 --> 01:10:53,560stuff. So if you're you know, if you're interested, and you probably98901:10:53,600 --> 01:10:57,319won't remember who it is, justColer Office you're interested in Solar, Cola99001:10:57,319 --> 01:11:00,640Office will pass it on to Zachand uh and he can come come talk99101:11:00,680 --> 01:11:03,079to you. Hey, who isthat Solar guy you had on? You99201:11:03,079 --> 01:11:06,640know, right, But again,if you're if you're giving it any thought99301:11:06,680 --> 01:11:10,920whatsoever, you have no idea whoto call, you have, no idea99401:11:10,920 --> 01:11:13,000who you can trust, and andfor you to go to the house and99501:11:13,039 --> 01:11:15,560talk to him, of course nothingright, nothing right. Give him an99601:11:15,600 --> 01:11:17,960estimate, of course nothing only ifthey do the sale. Yeah, okay,99701:11:18,359 --> 01:11:23,199Well, hopefully anyone that's interested inabsolutely give us a call. We'll99801:11:23,199 --> 01:11:28,680get in contact with Zach. Hewould appreciate it. That's I'm an opportunity99901:11:28,800 --> 01:11:30,000to at least talk to you.But even if you're just on defense of100001:11:30,079 --> 01:11:35,399trying to learn, how wonderful,how wonderful to have somebody in this arena100101:11:35,479 --> 01:11:39,479that you can trust, right,I mean, my god, that's worth100201:11:39,960 --> 01:11:42,760and the show. It's like,we're pretty smart people, deal, but100301:11:43,239 --> 01:11:45,960we had Dave. We hate havingsalesman come to while. Oh no,100401:11:46,000 --> 01:11:48,399I don't. I don't know whoI can trust, right, but I100501:11:48,479 --> 01:11:51,119know if he comes from Greenberg Financial, I can trust him, all right.100601:11:51,239 --> 01:11:57,279Zach never left Solo pros. Youneed Sola. Get in touch with100701:11:57,399 --> 01:12:00,880us him somebody. We will help. We'll all through that. He will100801:12:00,920 --> 01:12:04,119get in contact with you, andI'm promise you it will be everything you100901:12:04,319 --> 01:12:08,039expect. Whether you buy it ornot, we'll be back. This is101001:12:08,079 --> 01:12:16,279the money matter. Show. Thankyou say, it's all a name,101101:12:21,399 --> 01:12:25,960welcome back. We appreciate Zach joiningus, giving us all that information on101201:12:26,079 --> 01:12:30,239Solar and h I'm I'm gonna haveto think about that myself, right,101301:12:30,279 --> 01:12:31,960I thought, Dave, I havemy own experience with you have, so,101401:12:32,079 --> 01:12:35,960yeah, you really got tattooed one, Yeah, for sure. Yeah,101501:12:36,199 --> 01:12:39,720and I don't think that. Unfortunately, we know Zack's not going to101601:12:39,800 --> 01:12:42,680do that. So if I didn'thave such so much white hair, I'd101701:12:42,680 --> 01:12:46,079probably consider Solar. But I'm thinkingprobably be a good deal for my wife,101801:12:46,079 --> 01:12:49,479and maybe not for me. Idon't know. I think Solar is101901:12:49,520 --> 01:12:56,239gonna give me a white hair.Yeah. Oh your Reynald. So you've102001:12:56,279 --> 01:13:00,000got somebody over there. Uh,we've got to Sebastian has joined us.102101:13:00,000 --> 01:13:03,439Sebastian Borcini, right, Dean,Dean took off for a sec and Sebastian,102201:13:03,520 --> 01:13:05,680you have some stuff, some goodstuff for us. Yeah, a102301:13:05,680 --> 01:13:09,119little bit. This week, Iwanted to talk a little bit on the102401:13:09,159 --> 01:13:13,359housing market in mortgage rates. Soon Thursday, mortgage rates hit the highest102501:13:13,399 --> 01:13:16,720level in over twenty years. We'reat a seven point one percent Okay,102601:13:17,359 --> 01:13:23,960at the thirty year fixed thirty yearfixed. Everything's perfect Freddie mac seven point102701:13:23,960 --> 01:13:29,920one. If everything's perfect, correct, twenty percent down everything first, there's102801:13:29,920 --> 01:13:33,680your average right there to that points. Revenues for Airbnb owners are down nearly102901:13:33,720 --> 01:13:39,960fifty percent in cities like Phoenix andAustin, Texas. Dave and I were103001:13:40,000 --> 01:13:43,279talking a little bit this week,do do is there enough Airbnb's out in103101:13:43,319 --> 01:13:46,000the market right now to make thisto make it have an immediate impact on103201:13:46,039 --> 01:13:50,479housing? We didn't really know ananswer to that, but I did find103301:13:50,520 --> 01:13:55,319a little bit more on that.So data from what's scary for the US103401:13:55,399 --> 01:13:59,159housing market here with is just howmany Airbnbs there are? Dave, It's103501:13:59,159 --> 01:14:04,039an amazing number. It's incredible.Data from data shows one million Airbnb and103601:14:04,119 --> 01:14:09,880vrbo rentals compared to only about fivehundred and seventy thousand homes for sale.103701:14:10,720 --> 01:14:14,279Really yes, wow, So inmy opinion, this is going to create103801:14:14,359 --> 01:14:17,920a little bit of a down downwardprice pressure on housing. Will we see103901:14:17,960 --> 01:14:24,439a wave of force selling from airbnband short term rent rental owners in this104001:14:24,520 --> 01:14:27,680time to come? Todd can bringus a little bit of first hand experience104101:14:27,680 --> 01:14:30,439on the downward price pressure within therental market. As you're trying to rent104201:14:30,520 --> 01:14:32,920your house in one of those bigbubble cities, if you will, Phoenix,104301:14:32,960 --> 01:14:35,880Arizona. Yeah, I've been.My house has been on the market104401:14:35,920 --> 01:14:42,800for about twenty one days and Phoenixzero showings. That's interesting, I'm trying104501:14:42,840 --> 01:14:45,079that shocking because the rental market hasbeen so red hot. Well, and104601:14:45,119 --> 01:14:49,239I spoke with my property manager andshe said, your house is priced correctly,104701:14:49,600 --> 01:14:54,039but over the last eight months,we've seen a surge of inventory in104801:14:54,079 --> 01:14:59,560the rental space. So people againbashing you and I were talking, people104901:14:59,560 --> 01:15:02,840are often their mortgage great. Absolutely, they're not selling their house. They105001:15:02,920 --> 01:15:06,640decided anybody, anyone that bought overtwo years ago is looking good and they're105101:15:06,640 --> 01:15:10,640going to cover that rate for ratherthan seal the Hongers they're able to,105201:15:12,880 --> 01:15:15,479they're renting it, right, andespecially for the Airbnb's who are short term105301:15:15,479 --> 01:15:19,520rental renters. And now that that'snot cutting the bills, paying the bills105401:15:19,560 --> 01:15:23,520anymore with the fifty percent revenue drop, but they gotta do. They gotta105501:15:23,520 --> 01:15:27,399switch from short term to long termrentals. Switching the long term rentals just105601:15:27,600 --> 01:15:30,119increased inventory. Right. No,that's interesting too. You said that your105701:15:30,119 --> 01:15:32,720realtor or your property managers said thatit happened eight months ago that they've been105801:15:32,720 --> 01:15:36,359seeing this issue and Airbnb. Iremember in the Super Bowl when they had105901:15:36,399 --> 01:15:40,520the Super Bowl there, you hadwaste management up in Phoenix all on one106001:15:40,560 --> 01:15:43,880weekend. Airbnb people like they have. There's these people that have like one106101:15:43,920 --> 01:15:46,800hundred Airbnbs up there. They werestruggling to film when you have two of106201:15:46,840 --> 01:15:50,880the most popular things going on atthe same time in the same city,106301:15:51,680 --> 01:15:55,000they couldn't fill them. And nowall of a sudden, eight months later,106401:15:55,000 --> 01:15:59,039they're turning them into it. Sothey're realizing Airbnb starting to struggle.106501:15:59,319 --> 01:16:01,399Right, personally, I'd rather goto a hotel now it's easier, you're106601:16:01,439 --> 01:16:08,840out quicker, are making so manyrules and regulations to a house that it's106701:16:08,880 --> 01:16:12,239not even enjoyable, and it's easierto go to a hotel. I think106801:16:12,279 --> 01:16:14,840the Airbnb thing is if you're morethan two people, right, just in106901:16:14,880 --> 01:16:16,079that typical pretty much. Yeah,yeah, if you're two people, you're107001:16:16,079 --> 01:16:19,239gonna go to a hotel, whynot? Yeah? But also, I107101:16:19,279 --> 01:16:24,239mean Phoenix is a metropolis, right, so you're not getting the same rental107201:16:24,319 --> 01:16:28,279pressures in different cities. The onesthat have been hit hardest are like things107301:16:28,319 --> 01:16:30,800like Goodyear in Glendale, things thathaven't been hit as harder, thing like107401:16:30,840 --> 01:16:35,520Tempe, because obviously Tempe has aspecial niche of having asu you're going to107501:16:35,600 --> 01:16:39,760have a constant influx of renters everysingle year, during every single time.107601:16:40,399 --> 01:16:45,720Fortunately, my house in Su rightby Su wasn't on the market until the107701:16:45,720 --> 01:16:49,239beginning of August, so at thatpoint you kind of already missed the influx107801:16:49,279 --> 01:16:54,960of people that are coming into school. So Tempe hasn't experienced such a huge107901:16:55,039 --> 01:16:59,199drop in rental, but they arenow experiencing it because school has already started.108001:16:59,239 --> 01:17:02,800So different pockets and different parts ofPhoenix, but overall, I mean,108101:17:03,359 --> 01:17:06,920Tucson doesn't seem to be having toomany issues with rentals. But it's108201:17:06,960 --> 01:17:10,640interesting though, because we will.We have a lot of rent to builds108301:17:11,000 --> 01:17:14,720right now, and as those hitthe market, maybe that leads to the108401:17:14,760 --> 01:17:16,119same pressures we're seeing in Phoenix.Right to build, build a rent,108501:17:16,119 --> 01:17:20,479build a rent, build the rentscorrect, which means and that's those neighborhood108601:17:20,520 --> 01:17:25,520you talked about that are being builtspecifically for renting. Right, They're not108701:17:25,560 --> 01:17:28,640gonna sell any of those houses,They're gonna rent them. All. Yeah.108801:17:28,880 --> 01:17:31,199I mean a third of all homesin the inventory in the marketplace right108901:17:31,239 --> 01:17:36,319now are new builds. That's thehighest in the you know, it's going109001:17:36,319 --> 01:17:41,000back to like two thousand. Imean, it's it's only new homes right109101:17:41,039 --> 01:17:44,720now that are really available. Nobody. Nobody wants to give up their mortgage,109201:17:44,800 --> 01:17:47,479right yeah. And to that pointsabout speaking about Phoenix a little bit109301:17:47,680 --> 01:17:54,680more number of short term rentals eighteenthousands, it's more than double the number109401:17:54,720 --> 01:17:59,600of home listings for sale eight thousands. That's amazing. I mean, I109501:17:59,640 --> 01:18:03,079mean if you just continue to haverent prices stay, you know, because109601:18:03,119 --> 01:18:08,039if you look nationally, rent pricesare still ticking a little bit higher,109701:18:08,720 --> 01:18:11,880but in Phoenix falling off a cliffreally, and you're going to see that109801:18:11,960 --> 01:18:15,199in those big hot pocket areas thatwe see huge run ups in houses house109901:18:15,199 --> 01:18:19,279prices from the pandemic. Phoenix wasa huge area, Austin, Texas was110001:18:19,279 --> 01:18:23,840a huge area. There was acouple of Florida areas right Nevada. So110101:18:24,039 --> 01:18:27,439those are the areas that are probablygonna be the hardest hit in rentals now,110201:18:27,479 --> 01:18:30,039because what do you think those peopleare doing when they're buying those homes110301:18:30,079 --> 01:18:33,039in the pandemics, most of themwere doing the airbnb right now they have110401:18:33,079 --> 01:18:35,800to go to long term rentals orthey have to force sell. That's the110501:18:35,880 --> 01:18:41,560real canary in the coal mine iswhat happens when there's too many rentals in110601:18:41,600 --> 01:18:44,439the marketplace, because then you can'tfind a renter in there, and if110701:18:44,439 --> 01:18:46,760you can't make those cash flow forcertain three months, then you have to110801:18:46,840 --> 01:18:49,399force set. No matter how muchyou love your mortgage, right, you110901:18:49,399 --> 01:18:53,119may have to let it go,right, especially if you have a mortgage111001:18:53,279 --> 01:18:56,159a house that you're really living atand this is just an investment property,111101:18:56,640 --> 01:18:59,800you gotta let it go. Anda lot of people have investment properties right111201:18:59,800 --> 01:19:02,560now, you probably more than everin history because that's what people have grown111301:19:02,640 --> 01:19:05,439up with in this economy. Imean, the last thirty years, buying111401:19:05,520 --> 01:19:09,640home was a great investment other thantwo thousand and eight. Even that though111501:19:09,800 --> 01:19:12,359you knew, if you just wouldhold on and you weren't your responsible with111601:19:12,399 --> 01:19:15,279your cash flow, you can makeit through. So a lot of people111701:19:15,319 --> 01:19:16,359continue to do that. We seeit with China, we see it with111801:19:17,119 --> 01:19:21,560Canada. There's China and Canada.The real real estate problems that really see111901:19:21,600 --> 01:19:26,159coming in the foreseeable future that couldlead the spill over to the US and112001:19:26,319 --> 01:19:31,159exacerbate the problems the trends that werealready continue to see. Yeah, I112101:19:31,159 --> 01:19:34,479think, thank you, Sebastian.I think it's time for the EV garage.112201:19:34,560 --> 01:19:39,600What do you think? Beep bebeep. You know, only seventeen112301:19:39,640 --> 01:19:44,279percent of cars are least and that'sactually down from eighteen percent last year.112401:19:44,279 --> 01:19:46,640You would think Leasy maybe had becomea little bit more popular, but it's112501:19:46,680 --> 01:19:51,239actually becoming less popular. But ifyou're interested in an electric vehicle, you112601:19:51,359 --> 01:19:55,399might want to consider Leasy. AndI'm gonna make a case here. I112701:19:55,439 --> 01:20:00,359own the Mercedes back in nineteen ninetywhen Lexus was introduced, and the value112801:20:00,359 --> 01:20:04,039of that Mercedes dropped by about fortypercent in thirty days. It dropped just112901:20:04,079 --> 01:20:09,319plummeted. I could see the samething happening with electric vehicles. This technology113001:20:09,359 --> 01:20:15,680evolves, breakthrough technology could make yourcurrent electric vehicle that you bought lose value,113101:20:15,720 --> 01:20:18,680lose dramatic value. Toyota has asolid state battery they're talking a lot113201:20:18,680 --> 01:20:25,159about. Ford has filed a patentthat would charge the EV while you drive.113301:20:25,920 --> 01:20:30,399The technology bottom line, the technologyis rapidly changing the argument against leasing.113401:20:31,239 --> 01:20:35,039You don't get the fifteen percent taxrebate. I get that, but113501:20:35,199 --> 01:20:43,640I would argue that if a technologycomes out that is just overwhelmingly better than113601:20:43,720 --> 01:20:48,039what we're dealing with now, afifteen percent drop would be nothing because you'd113701:20:48,079 --> 01:20:51,079be looking at having a four orfive six year old cell phone that would113801:20:51,079 --> 01:20:54,920just be worthless. That was exactlythe example I was going to talk about,113901:20:55,000 --> 01:20:57,880is if you had BlackBerry and you'reable to get a fifteen percent discount114001:20:57,880 --> 01:21:00,319on that, and then two yearslater the iPhone comes out. That's what114101:21:00,359 --> 01:21:02,760anyone wants. And the nice thingabout about the leasing part for me is114201:21:03,760 --> 01:21:09,359I'm not really committed to the technology, right. I mean, if three114301:21:09,399 --> 01:21:13,079years from now, just you know, this is just a nuisance and it's114401:21:13,119 --> 01:21:15,760a wonderful car, I just can'tgo anywhere because I don't have a spare114501:21:15,800 --> 01:21:18,800tire and my range is well ofa sudden, in three years, your114601:21:18,880 --> 01:21:21,119range, the new range is goingto be six hundred miles, six or114701:21:21,159 --> 01:21:27,279seven hundred miles with slide states battery, with a Lexus or something on your114801:21:27,439 --> 01:21:30,880right. So from a financing pointof view, it's probably also a better114901:21:30,920 --> 01:21:34,119move. It's I'm not. Ididn't follow that. I mean because I115001:21:34,119 --> 01:21:38,279mean if you if you pass away, you know, the nice thing hit115101:21:38,399 --> 01:21:41,920my wife. I love my wife. But she said, you know,115201:21:42,199 --> 01:21:48,119because the Tesla has a recumbent breakingso if you take your it's like a115301:21:48,119 --> 01:21:51,880golf cart. If you take yourfoot off the pedal, it doesn't roll115401:21:51,960 --> 01:21:55,920to a stop. It stops,I mean didn't stop on a dime,115501:21:56,000 --> 01:21:59,279but it slows down very dramatically.She said, you know, this is115601:21:59,399 --> 01:22:02,439really handy for an older person whohas a cardiac event or something. You're115701:22:02,479 --> 01:22:06,239not gonna go shooting off into traffic. It's gonna just come to a stop.115801:22:08,079 --> 01:22:11,119So there you go. That hashappened. Stuff like that has happened.115901:22:11,119 --> 01:22:14,239So we also in the V garage, we've talked a lot about range.116001:22:14,239 --> 01:22:17,039It's been a big issue for me, Todd per Triple A. This116101:22:17,079 --> 01:22:21,039is we actually have statistics now.Range is negatively and this is for all116201:22:21,079 --> 01:22:25,399you folks out there are to geta one hundred and fifty miles per charge116301:22:25,520 --> 01:22:30,479out of your three hundred and thirtymile long range car. Negative range is116401:22:30,560 --> 01:22:39,079negatively impacted seventeen percent. When thetemperatures ninety five, it's impacted thirty one116501:22:39,199 --> 01:22:45,399percent when the temperature is above oneoh four. So in Tucson, Arizona,116601:22:45,600 --> 01:22:48,880pretty much for the entire summer,you're gonna get seventy percent of the116701:22:49,119 --> 01:22:53,880range that you thought you were goingto get. And that that counts for116801:22:53,920 --> 01:22:57,000going to Phoenix, that counts forgoing to San Diego. You're gonna get116901:22:57,039 --> 01:23:00,720seventy percent of what was sold toyou because the heat. Huh, can117001:23:00,760 --> 01:23:04,159you put a number on that,like on how many miles? One hundred?117101:23:04,319 --> 01:23:09,159So, so like the Tesla model, why that I got to there's117201:23:09,279 --> 01:23:12,760saying three hundred and thirty mile range, But that's without the air conditioner in117301:23:12,840 --> 01:23:15,560seventy degree weather on flat ground,going sixty five miles an hour, Okay,117401:23:15,520 --> 01:23:19,680And nobody's right, how much isthe acus when the when it's one117501:23:19,760 --> 01:23:24,439h five hour? Was it's allpart of that thirty one Yeah, the117601:23:24,520 --> 01:23:27,920thirty one percent. So so you'rethree hundred and thirty mile range, it117701:23:28,239 --> 01:23:31,319becomes two hundred mile two hundred andthirty miles, right, And if you're117801:23:31,399 --> 01:23:35,199driving more than sixty five, nowyou're at one ninety, you know,117901:23:35,479 --> 01:23:39,840and if you've got the radio on, maybe you're one eighty. And the118001:23:39,920 --> 01:23:43,520whole thing is is a work inprogress. It's a work in progress.118101:23:43,960 --> 01:23:46,000But cooler temperatures are going to begood. That's something I'm looking forward to118201:23:46,560 --> 01:23:55,239and another reason to anxiously await footballseason because then comes the cooler weather.118301:23:55,319 --> 01:23:59,279Wait, are you telling me you'regonna have another climate change? The climate118401:23:59,359 --> 01:24:02,159is constantly changing. No, constantly. No, it's amazing, you know118501:24:02,199 --> 01:24:06,319it's it's interesting with the polar icecaps melting, isn't it a mystery?118601:24:06,560 --> 01:24:11,159Why? Why? Why are onehundred and fifty ships waiting to go to118701:24:11,319 --> 01:24:15,359the Panama Canal because there's no waterbecause of the drought where I was whether118801:24:15,359 --> 01:24:16,960there's not a there's not a droughtin the ocean where I guess not.118901:24:17,239 --> 01:24:21,079I guess I don't know where allthat water from the polar caps melting's gone.119001:24:21,119 --> 01:24:24,640But it's not going to the PanamaCanal. We know that much.119101:24:26,760 --> 01:24:29,359No. Life is a life isthe mystery, Dylan. You look at119201:24:29,399 --> 01:24:30,439that and go, wait a second. Both of the polar ice caps are119301:24:30,520 --> 01:24:36,439melting, but in the middle we'reout of water. If you'll get it,119401:24:36,520 --> 01:24:40,319you don't, how is that happening? All right, we'll be back119501:24:40,439 --> 01:24:44,840right after this break with more climatechange news. Thanks for joining us,119601:24:45,039 --> 01:24:50,079say it's all a name. Welcomeback to the Money Matter Show. My119701:24:50,199 --> 01:24:54,359name is Todd Blick. I'm herewith Dylan Greenberg, Dean Greenberg, and119801:24:54,479 --> 01:24:58,600Dave Sherwood. And we had alittle talk about the inflation Reduction Actor earlier119901:24:58,640 --> 01:25:02,399when Zach was on, and obviouslythat has some impacts with the chips going120001:25:02,439 --> 01:25:05,439on with the semi does. Iwas actually actually and we you know,120101:25:05,560 --> 01:25:10,439Biden is restricting shipment of chips toChina, and we're going to talk about120201:25:10,479 --> 01:25:14,159chips and dealing those gritos or laysor no, no, no, we're120301:25:14,239 --> 01:25:17,680talking about We're talking about computer chipsdealing. We're talking about computer chips and120401:25:17,720 --> 01:25:20,359we're not actually talking about shipping.You know, you hear a lot of120501:25:20,479 --> 01:25:26,760talk about the AI, artificial intelligenceand the chips that run that, and120601:25:27,000 --> 01:25:29,279so I started to do a deepdive into this. And you know,120701:25:29,359 --> 01:25:34,760there's two primary types of chips.There's a graphic processing unit that's a GPU.120801:25:35,920 --> 01:25:42,039They have more cores than a CPU, which is a central processing unit.120901:25:42,279 --> 01:25:45,560CPUs are what have been used inthe past. GPU, the graphic121001:25:45,680 --> 01:25:48,560process and unit, are the newdeal. They're smaller, they have more121101:25:48,600 --> 01:25:55,720power, the additional cores allowed tohandle more mathematical and geographical calculations at once121201:25:55,800 --> 01:26:00,760with greater efficiency. CPUs are moregeneral, the more of a general component.121301:26:00,920 --> 01:26:05,319That's what we've had in the past. GPUs. This the graphic processing121401:26:05,399 --> 01:26:11,319units, which which is what runsAI, is what Nvidia controls. They121501:26:11,399 --> 01:26:17,560have eighty percent of the GPU market. And my biggest concern interestingly, and121601:26:17,840 --> 01:26:23,760Video will report earnings next Wednesday afterthe close, and that'll be a that'll121701:26:23,760 --> 01:26:27,399be a market mover. I thinkcertainly it'll be an Nvidio mover because it121801:26:27,479 --> 01:26:30,600moves ten to twenty points a daywithout earnings, so it'll it'll certainly move121901:26:30,640 --> 01:26:34,640that stock. My biggest concern witha company that has eighty percent of the122001:26:34,720 --> 01:26:42,680market is is there really anywhere togo but down? Well, yeah,122101:26:42,840 --> 01:26:45,560there could be a way to goup because you have an all time high122201:26:45,560 --> 01:26:47,920and money market funds. So whenyou have that mount of dry powder,122301:26:48,159 --> 01:26:51,319we know we have dry powder onthe sidelines. So as much as people122401:26:51,399 --> 01:26:55,680are cautious at this time, there'splenty of dry powder, I agree,122501:26:55,720 --> 01:27:00,439But what but what I guess whatI'm saying is is there anywhere for Video's122601:27:00,479 --> 01:27:03,439business to go, but down inother way in terms of percentage of the122701:27:03,560 --> 01:27:06,800market. As we saw what happenedto Tesla, I was gonna say,122801:27:06,800 --> 01:27:11,199ask Tesla, Ask Tesla. Teslawas four hundred dollars. Now it's two122901:27:11,319 --> 01:27:13,479hundred dollars, right, But itshould have never went to four hundred in123001:27:13,479 --> 01:27:15,479the first place. They've because themarket, once you get your fouria,123101:27:15,520 --> 01:27:21,560it's gonna gonna keep going. Hello, That's what I'm talking about, keep123201:27:21,600 --> 01:27:25,159its edge against everybody. They havea head start, like Tesla had a123301:27:25,199 --> 01:27:28,439head start, But that new chipthat's gonna come out next, if it's123401:27:28,439 --> 01:27:30,720able to be astronomically better than theother one, still, they're going to123501:27:30,840 --> 01:27:33,520keep their market shry, if notgrow a little bit, because everybody is123601:27:34,079 --> 01:27:39,399wanting in video chips the most.So if that's kind of the only way123701:27:39,439 --> 01:27:42,960you could grow Otherwise, yeah,you're the market is saturated. AMD's coming123801:27:43,000 --> 01:27:45,880for them time one stomach connect,They're all then want to come for them.123901:27:45,199 --> 01:27:49,159Everybody's everybody's climbing the mountain, andthe hardest thing in the world is124001:27:49,199 --> 01:27:51,359just stay on top of the mountain. It's the same idea as Apple and124101:27:51,399 --> 01:27:55,119iPhone. They came out the iPhone. Then all of a sudden, the124201:27:55,600 --> 01:27:58,880Google the Galaxy came out Samsung.Now, how's a huge share? What124301:27:58,920 --> 01:28:01,159helps you stay on top of themthough? Like a good ceo? Yes,124401:28:01,640 --> 01:28:04,079the good ceo. They've got agreat CEO, you know, one124501:28:04,159 --> 01:28:09,159that can really talk. That's whyElon Musk and Tesla stock. It didn't124601:28:09,159 --> 01:28:11,880even have to do good he didn'thave to show good results. He just124701:28:11,960 --> 01:28:15,560talked about stuff and it went up. You know what I saw last Friday124801:28:15,680 --> 01:28:19,239was a picture of a one ofthose car shipment trucks coming to Arizona with124901:28:19,319 --> 01:28:23,720the cyber trucks on them. Sothey're actually making them. Yeah, they125001:28:23,760 --> 01:28:27,680are starting to deliver thee with whichcybertruck, the Tesla cyber truck. Yeah.125101:28:27,760 --> 01:28:30,680Really it was like some ugly gotawful look at things they're coming out.125201:28:30,960 --> 01:28:33,560They're actually making those. There's likesix on that truck. Yeah,125301:28:33,600 --> 01:28:36,760that's that's what the plant in Austin, Texas was made for, was to125401:28:36,840 --> 01:28:41,920make the cyber truck. And nowhe's the pickups or the Semis, the125501:28:41,960 --> 01:28:45,439pickups, the pickups personal car thatlooks just like something with the bulletproof.125601:28:45,479 --> 01:28:49,359When was that he broke with thebaseball at the Yeah, really yeah,125701:28:49,520 --> 01:28:53,600and I will it looks really ugly. Plus, if you're talking about ev125801:28:54,880 --> 01:28:59,319capacity, battery capacity, try totoast something. Oh yeah, oh your125901:28:59,359 --> 01:29:02,840capacity. We found out about thata story that ran last week about somebody126001:29:02,920 --> 01:29:09,720out of Canada that it was takingand towing something to Detroit I think it126101:29:09,880 --> 01:29:14,920was, and somewhere in the Midwest. He he pulled over and abandoned his126201:29:15,039 --> 01:29:19,039vehicle and called Tesla and said,you're cheers. I can't do it anymore.126301:29:19,199 --> 01:29:21,760I just can't do it. I'vebeen a good soldier, I've done126401:29:21,760 --> 01:29:26,840the best I can. I can'tdo it anymore. Yeah, I don't126501:29:26,880 --> 01:29:30,399know what what you can give meback in the way of money, but126601:29:30,840 --> 01:29:33,399I'm out at the end of theday. It is the future, but126701:29:33,520 --> 01:29:36,399it's gonna take a while for itto get there to be the most lepecially126801:29:36,439 --> 01:29:41,960for convenient car like yeah and theSemis especially you get a Semi, you126901:29:42,000 --> 01:29:44,720can go twelve hundred miles on asingle tank. I think this. The127001:29:44,960 --> 01:29:48,439Tesla's go like five. I thoughtit was three hundred and something maybe,127101:29:48,560 --> 01:29:51,680but it's like six hours of charge. It takes you twenty minutes to fill127201:29:51,720 --> 01:29:56,039up with diesel tru semi. Ittakes six hours a charge at diesel.127301:29:56,199 --> 01:29:59,920You know how slow that's gonna that'sgonna make If they make it trust semi127401:30:00,279 --> 01:30:02,960only electric for whatever reason, that'sgoing to slow down the shipping industry by127501:30:03,000 --> 01:30:06,079a ton, right, show down, lead time, slow down deep and127601:30:06,079 --> 01:30:09,760all of a sudden they're gonna maketrains only electric. That's going to slow127701:30:09,800 --> 01:30:12,479those down. Right, You havea long way to go. But back127801:30:12,520 --> 01:30:14,600to the video, I mean,if you, if you have that CEO127901:30:14,760 --> 01:30:19,840continue to even claim that they havea new, better product that's gonna keep128001:30:19,880 --> 01:30:24,159going up. Well. Last Monday, Morgan Stanley named the stock their top128101:30:24,239 --> 01:30:28,039pick, predicted the earnings report onWednesday will be a strong one and the128201:30:28,119 --> 01:30:34,119stock has material upside ahead. Raleycontinued into Tuesday, recouping much of the128301:30:34,199 --> 01:30:39,479ten day fifteen percent pullback. Theonly thing that is to be no is128401:30:39,640 --> 01:30:44,880all the earnings that we've gotten sofar four quarter two. Even when companies128501:30:44,920 --> 01:30:49,039are beating their EPs, their earningsper share quota, they are still averaging128601:30:49,119 --> 01:30:56,359a zero percent return after that day'strade. So investors are really looking for128701:30:56,680 --> 01:31:01,760profitable like the earnings to equal whatthe valuation of the stock is worth because128801:31:01,800 --> 01:31:05,840we saw that these stocks went upa huge amount and they had to prove128901:31:05,920 --> 01:31:10,600it in earnings, and they're beatingearnings, but they're not doing as much129001:31:10,640 --> 01:31:13,880as the stock went up, andso a lot of these companies are not129101:31:14,039 --> 01:31:15,520doing as well even when they're beatingearnings. So if the video comes out129201:31:15,520 --> 01:31:20,520and beats earnings, maybe it's notenough to beat to justify the four thirty.129301:31:20,840 --> 01:31:25,840Maybe it justifies four hundred, right, So that's something to keep It129401:31:26,000 --> 01:31:30,079was pretty gus. The biggest thingwithin video, the difference between N Video,129501:31:30,079 --> 01:31:31,760I think, and Tesla. WhenTesla is that four hundred, is129601:31:32,119 --> 01:31:35,119that Nvideo is producing the chips andthey're sold out of these chips. Yeah,129701:31:35,680 --> 01:31:40,399Tesla people were buying on Elon Muskand the idea of the future,129801:31:40,840 --> 01:31:44,239and Video is already producing what they'retalking about and they'll just keep building on129901:31:44,319 --> 01:31:47,079it. So there's a little,I think a little more valued than Tesla130001:31:47,199 --> 01:31:50,760is just it's price earnings ratio isridiculous, like a thousand. At one130101:31:50,760 --> 01:31:54,880point, there was no reason itshould have been like sixteen hundred dollars a130201:31:54,920 --> 01:31:58,880share before they split, and nowit's back more realistic, but that's the130301:31:58,920 --> 01:32:00,520biggest difference I see. But whenthe two I think one of the most130401:32:00,600 --> 01:32:04,520boring stocks on the on the StockExchange woke up last week US Steel.130501:32:05,319 --> 01:32:09,039US Steel has to be one ofthem because they were they were trying to130601:32:09,079 --> 01:32:11,920get bought out down. Well,they were down, They're down fifteen percent130701:32:12,000 --> 01:32:14,279this year. Then I was tryingto get bought out. Well, it's130801:32:14,399 --> 01:32:16,239over the week Over the weekend,one of their competitors said hey, we're130901:32:16,279 --> 01:32:20,439gonna buy you. And the stockof Monday was up thirty percent. Yeah,131001:32:20,600 --> 01:32:23,600I mean that's I don't think it'sever had a move like that in131101:32:23,680 --> 01:32:26,600history. Well, it's because thecompany valued the shares that basically what well,131201:32:26,680 --> 01:32:29,279Cleveland Cliffs said, here's what wethink you're worth, and which was131301:32:29,359 --> 01:32:31,319thirty percent above where it was tradingexactly. And of course then you think,131401:32:31,319 --> 01:32:33,760well, because it's gonna be abidding more Cleveland. And I'm thinking131501:32:33,800 --> 01:32:41,560to myself that I cannot imagine ascenario where this government, Federal Trade Commission131601:32:41,680 --> 01:32:45,680would allow that. Oh no,under under the Biden regime, would allow131701:32:45,279 --> 01:32:48,960Cleveland Cliffs and US steal the merger. They get mad at Activision bluesom I131801:32:49,000 --> 01:32:55,199know and it's it's it's ridiculous.Land is interesting is we talked about a131901:32:55,199 --> 01:32:59,439couple of weeks ago the equal weightedunder performing the S ANDP, and normally132001:32:59,479 --> 01:33:02,199when that happens we see a reversal. Well, investors are responding right now,132101:33:02,279 --> 01:33:08,560they're rotating from the market cap weightedSPY to the equal weighted rsp We've132201:33:08,560 --> 01:33:13,119seen that over the last month,so continue to probably see that trend continue,132301:33:13,479 --> 01:33:15,199and again, continue to be waryof the pump and dump people.132401:33:15,880 --> 01:33:19,640These are the people that are outthere trying to hype penny stocks. They're132501:33:19,840 --> 01:33:27,640emailing, they're texting, they're calling, they're pervasive, They're everywhere. This132601:33:27,880 --> 01:33:30,840dollar dollar and a half stock,it's really got a great future. Blah132701:33:30,840 --> 01:33:33,159blah blah. It's called pump anddump. Don't have a short term memory.132801:33:33,239 --> 01:33:36,439Three years ago, every penny stockwent up because of that in the132901:33:36,479 --> 01:33:40,640pandemic, everybody had that extra moneyfrom the stimulus. All those companies went133001:33:40,720 --> 01:33:43,680up. Everybody thought it wouldn't stopgoing up. And now the majority of133101:33:43,720 --> 01:33:45,640those companies are back down to beingpenny stocks because that's where they belong.133201:33:46,000 --> 01:33:48,359And a lot of people did notsell when they were fitty dollars to share,133301:33:48,640 --> 01:33:51,199so they lost their money. Yeah, so just be careful of that.133401:33:51,680 --> 01:33:56,600Marcus has backed off five percent fromthe high. I'd like to see133501:33:56,600 --> 01:34:00,199it back off another five to tenpercent because I think that's going to give133601:34:00,279 --> 01:34:02,800us a much more solid base fromwhich we can build. You'll give a133701:34:02,840 --> 01:34:05,880lot of people better feeling in theirstomach rather than why are we up so133801:34:06,039 --> 01:34:10,399high? That's what we've been wonderingfor the last summer, when when stocks133901:34:10,520 --> 01:34:14,279move up parabolically, they moved downparabolically. I don't want that, right.134001:34:14,479 --> 01:34:17,119I want a steady gain the market'saverage to ten percent per year for134101:34:17,159 --> 01:34:20,760a hundred years. That's what Iwant. There's also an interesting I saw134201:34:20,840 --> 01:34:25,199in the SMP five hundred. Itclosed beneath its fifty day moving average for134301:34:25,239 --> 01:34:28,640the first time in four months onTuesday. This by itself isn't a reason134401:34:28,680 --> 01:34:32,439to turn farrish, because since nineteenninety it's been higher a month later eight134501:34:32,479 --> 01:34:35,840out of nine times when it closedbeneath the fifty day moving average. And134601:34:35,920 --> 01:34:40,680then also it's a year later,it's higher eight out of nine times on134701:34:40,800 --> 01:34:44,239average fourteen point one percent. Onemore thing I wanted to get and we're134801:34:44,279 --> 01:34:47,079running time here. Johnson and Johnson. Anyone who has Johnson and Johnson has134901:34:47,119 --> 01:34:53,199been getting an offer in the mailto switch over to ken View. That's135001:34:53,239 --> 01:34:57,199not Barbie's ken okay, It's kenView is the name of the company.135101:34:57,560 --> 01:35:01,920It's the spinoff of Johnson and Johnson'sSummer Health. What they're doing in order135201:35:02,000 --> 01:35:06,079to try to entice you to switchyour Johnson and Johnson stock to ken View135301:35:06,479 --> 01:35:11,119is they're giving you a seven percentdiscount. What they're not telling you is135401:35:11,159 --> 01:35:15,079the sheriffs have dropped eighteen percent sincethey came out. Spinoffs have not done135501:35:15,119 --> 01:35:23,000well lately. I remember IBM's Kendrelland AT and T's Warner Brothers discover both135601:35:23,000 --> 01:35:27,760of them down more than fifty percent. Do not swap your Johnson and Johnson135701:35:27,960 --> 01:35:30,119for ken View. Yeah. Anda big thing with that too, is135801:35:30,239 --> 01:35:34,560that that TALC litigation going on JohnsonJohnson took over the US and Canada and135901:35:34,680 --> 01:35:36,640left Kenvy to deal with the restof the world. So you don't know136001:35:36,720 --> 01:35:40,960how big that could end up being. So that's a big black swan event136101:35:41,000 --> 01:35:43,560that could happen to ken View.And it's just not I mean, it's136201:35:43,560 --> 01:35:45,520the same kind of the same companyof the tunnel. There's just a split136301:35:45,560 --> 01:35:48,000off of them. It is youknow, you bought Johnson and Johnson for136401:35:48,079 --> 01:35:55,159a reason, and Johnson and Johnsonis a high quality company with a long136501:35:55,279 --> 01:35:59,840term track record. Good management.To ken View is who knows what.136601:36:00,119 --> 01:36:03,079And recently those spinoffs have just notdone well well. You think there's a136701:36:03,119 --> 01:36:06,640reason they did a spinoff because therewas top they owned town bandaids enlistering.136801:36:06,800 --> 01:36:10,119That can be company. That's themain thing. So you got to think136901:36:10,119 --> 01:36:12,720there's a reason behind the scenes asto why there was a spinoff. But137001:36:12,800 --> 01:36:15,359we are coming up to the endof the show. There's a good show.137101:36:15,680 --> 01:36:17,560And if any of this downturn inthe market makes you nervous or anything,137201:36:17,800 --> 01:36:20,880call us. Let's come in,do a financial plan, figure out137301:36:20,920 --> 01:36:25,640your risk tolerance and figure out whereyou are. If you're unsettled with anything,137401:36:25,680 --> 01:36:28,720if you just want to do aportfolio review, whatever it is.137501:36:28,840 --> 01:36:30,279But at the end of the day, we all want to be happy,137601:36:30,720 --> 01:36:32,680we all want to be healthy,and at the end of the day,137701:36:32,720 --> 01:36:35,880we all want to be profitable.Say it's all